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09 August 2007 Americas/United States Equity Research Packaged Foods / MARKET WEIGHT. | 0 | neutral |
It plans to generate 6 points of margin improvement from its WIN strategy (2% each from procurement, lean manufacturing, and strategic pricing) and a further 3 points from its European restructuring (lower logistics costs). | 1 | positive |
Lockheed Martin Fourth Quarter Lockheed Martin again beat expectations in the fourth quarter on higher than forecast sales and significantly raised its revenue guidance for 2003 mainly due to higher sales at Aeronautics. | 1 | positive |
The fiber business's 1999 EBIT was $10 million, and although management was hesitant to quantify the future earnings and growth, it did indicate that the payback time on a $100 million capital investment is about two to four years. | 0 | neutral |
We will follow up with a detailed note following the 8:30 am call. | 0 | neutral |
This isn't to say Starbucks can't beat expectations -- over the last two years, it has done so in most quarters. | 1 | positive |
The enhanced size of these rigs is necessary to give the unit more operating stability in harsh, stormy seas as well as to provide ample storage space for drilling and personnel supplies, allowing the rig to operate for extended periods of time in remote areas without regular shorebase contact. | 1 | positive |
Focused execution around a few winners and not a truckload of simply new, but not necessarily good products. | 1 | positive |
While the signs of an improving IT spending environment and better execution are encouraging, the company was prudently conservative with guidance for FY04 given Q1 shortfalls in the last two years. | 1 | positive |
Gross production at the end of 2004 was 238 mboepd, though an upgrader expansion project is currently underway, and expected to be operational in 2Q06. | 0 | neutral |
Our current estimates assumed CI would win new customers for '06 to offset other attrition. | 0 | neutral |
enlargements and remodels incorporate pharmacies unless there is restriction. | 0 | neutral |
Gross margins in the PDI business remained steady over a year ago. | 1 | positive |
Edwards began her career in 1974 in Sears, Roebuck and Co.'s credit card division. | 0 | neutral |
July sales appear solid, which could ease inventory. | 1 | positive |
Praxair's stock is viewed as a "defensive cyclical." If the economy takes off significantly, we could possibly see money leave defensive names into more cyclical stocks, therefore hurting Praxair's relative performance. | 2 | negative |
Expanding the Footprint. Citi to acquire Banacci for $12.5 billion. | 0 | neutral |
While SO offers a 5.0% dividend yield, the Baa bond 10-year T-bond yield spread exceeds 6%, and thus we do not advise accumulating SO until the spreads compress closer to the historical level of 2%. | 2 | negative |
We therefore believe that Intimate Brands' existing and new concepts provide a great opportunity for expansion and growth. | 1 | positive |
Shares are trading at 1.75X current book value per share versus estimated normalized multiple of 1.75X (the company's median multiple is 1.59X). | 0 | neutral |
It currently has $276 million left on its current share repurchase authorization.. | 0 | neutral |
Banana Republic's lead times are even longer due to the extra time required to produce its specialized fabrics. | 2 | negative |
In our view, this speaks to this team's ability to make swift directional realignments. | 1 | positive |
The Tim Hortons IPO could also cause Wendy's shares to trade higher. | 1 | positive |
In this vein, Hasbro, with a bevy of brands, is well positioned and is making impressive strides. | 1 | positive |
GLK buys 120,000 metric tons of chlorine each year. | 0 | neutral |
In order of importance heading into the quarter, we present our customary "bull vs. bear" analysis below in Table 1. | 0 | neutral |
Consumers may achieve the same breadth of gifts, but may not offer the same depth. | 0 | neutral |
More Frequent and Improved Reporting and Performance Metrics. | 1 | positive |
We also think the company's transition to a more value-based pricing approach, while conceptually the right idea, may make for a difficult transition period as consumers adjust to lower visible incentives. | 2 | negative |
e) it failed to schedule all the capacity it did make available. | 2 | negative |
The award will primarily be used to accelerate a switch in vaccine production systems from the current method that uses chicken eggs to a cell-culture-based system, thereby enabling faster production of greater numbers of doses. | 0 | neutral |
The real estate market is booming in Palm Valley, as illustrated by the fact that in 2000, SunCor sold a 640-acre lot for $40,000 per acre, and one year later, a similar-sized lot sold for $70,000 per acre. | 0 | neutral |
Notably, our CY04 and CY05 estimates are going higher. | 1 | positive |
Ticker EIX FE Company Edison International FirstEnergy Price as of 7/29/2005 $40.88 $49.78 Rating Overweight Overweight Price Target $42 $56. | 1 | positive |
Given these positive credit trends, management did not fully cover loan losses with its $650 million provision, yet the reserve remained healthy at 1.7% of loans and, in our view, could trend lower in coming quarters. | 1 | positive |
Management did point out that there were several one time incentive payments included in this number. | 0 | neutral |
Source: Company Filings, Hoovers, OneSource, and Bear Stearns estimates.. | 0 | neutral |
Government Stimulus Could Be a Positive: Should the government execute a larger-than-expected stimulus program, our outlook for continued credit erosion may be too pessimistic.. | 1 | positive |
We would buy the stock in the low $60's and become aggressive buyers on weakness below that level. | 1 | positive |
ALLTEL's local services and intrastate access revenues are currently regulated under either rate of return regulation or "alternative" regulation. | 0 | neutral |
We look at "same-store" revenue and EBITDA growth (defined as Harrah's properties that participate in the Total Rewards program) to measure the impact of the tiered system. | 0 | neutral |
OPINION: With positive factors in place on both the revenue and OPEX fronts, we expect both Qualcomm and Broadcom to post smaller declines on the topline and the bottom line in their current fiscal years compared to the industry averages. | 1 | positive |
Valuation More interesting to us than the company's near-term earnings result is its valuation. | 0 | neutral |
Non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 was inline with us and the street. | 0 | neutral |
We call investors' attention to the fact that Pulte has exceeded consensus estimates by an average of 20% for nine consecutive quarters. | 1 | positive |
Travelocity or other Sabre-powered online agents, or Sabre BTS.. | 0 | neutral |
The suite strategy provides both a functional and technical benefit for the customer. | 1 | positive |
n We are fine-tuning our 1998 EPS estimate to $2.28 from n The midpoint of a multiple range of 20x-22x on our 1999. | 0 | neutral |
Furthermore, we believe the more limited advertising is an efficient use of the company's marketing budget and in keeping with the company's new plan for shorter, more frequent advertising campaigns. | 1 | positive |
Consensus expectations are only for 3%-4% growth. | 0 | neutral |
Amgen, RPR, Novartis Neupogen's market dominance and broader neutropenia label have limited sales. | 2 | negative |
This call compares these assumptions to the actual measured effects of generic simvastatin to date. | 0 | neutral |
We are maintaining our operating estimate for 2002 of $0.50. | 0 | neutral |
The Quarter: 4Q07 EPS of $0.35 were inline with our est. and $0.01 above cons. | 0 | neutral |
This year's upfront highlights the growing desire to utilize multiple vehicles as several large cross platform deals have been announced. | 1 | positive |
Teradyne scores in the bottom third group in our enhanced ratings methodology, thus the downgrade to Underweight from Neutral. | 2 | negative |
The combination could prove powerful in that Baptist has traditionally had a strong reputation within the primary market, while St. | 1 | positive |
After the IPO, Pharmacia will hold 220m shares of the 255m shares outstanding in Monsanto, which represents a stake of 86.3%. | 0 | neutral |
As expected, Applied guided for flat to slightly down sequential orders presenting no surprise to investors.. | 0 | neutral |
The release of several popular DVDs and the theatrical debut of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire during the quarter should translate into strong Film Division results. | 1 | positive |
Northern also broadened its relationship with Mitsubishi Trust, and now manages alternative investments, in addition to U.S. equities, for Japanese international clients.. | 0 | neutral |
We anticipate that BEL personnel will gradually take charge in critical areas such as wireless and long distance. | 0 | neutral |
While this remains true for the credit card, home equity lending, and auto finance lending parts of the business, it is less so for traditional banking. | 0 | neutral |
This move is expected to generate $600 million in annual cost savings, some of which will be used to fund additional technological investments. | 0 | neutral |
The new 2002 cash flow target including restructuring, which is how we measure Textron's peers, equates to ~$230mm, or about 55% of net income. | 0 | neutral |
I'm absolutely bullish about 40% or more growth in 2004; I'd bank on it. | 1 | positive |
We are starting to see many phones using Linux kernels for many of their needs. | 0 | neutral |
Financial institutions remain willing to invest in technology and to utilize third-party outsourcing partners for banking and insurance processing. | 0 | neutral |
International Paper (IP, $36.15, Outperform, TP: $46, Market Weight) led a capacity reduction effort in 2000, taking care of about 5% of North American capacity, but that effort wasn't followed up with sufficient closures by any other big players. | 1 | positive |
3 Diverse Technology Portfolio With New Growth Businesses. | 0 | neutral |
Additionally, we note that net income rose 19% to $1.8 billion on a 30.5% tax rate. | 1 | positive |
Competition and greater regulatory focus on life insurer sales and claims management practices are combining to restrain sales of medical products in Japan, in our opinion. | 2 | negative |
Other expenses that were slightly higher than our estimates include SG&A, which was approximately $1.0 million higher, and interest expense, which was approximately $0.8 million higher. | 2 | negative |
Key Positives: Early signs of margin improvement in Security Solutions. | 1 | positive |
The main areas of volume weakness are the relatively higher profit markets of North America and Northern Europe. | 2 | negative |
Conoco's top performing R&M business units (based on 1998 road show data) are Lube and Specialties in Belgium.. | 0 | neutral |
Studio Entertainment still a 3-4 quarter transition story. | 0 | neutral |
On a comparable basis, ex-Eagle Point, refining segment earnings were down substantially versus 1Q:03 by about $16 million. | 2 | negative |
Looking forward, we see room for margin improvement driven by leveraging organic growth and implementing various sales and cost initiatives across the business, which should supplement positive earnings momentum.. | 1 | positive |
Seeds & Genomics comprises traditional seed sales and the biotech and genomics businesses.. | 0 | neutral |
Raton production has increased from 25-26 mmcf/d when it was acquired in 2002 to 66 mmcf/d currently and has a new target of 75 mmcf/d. | 1 | positive |
Rent growth was also good, up 6.6% year-over-year. | 1 | positive |
The SG&A is expected to improve in the second quarter and reflected higher staffing levels in advance of the peak selling season, compounded by the weak sales in the first quarter. | 1 | positive |
If upheld however, the result could decrease non-US Fosamax sales, which have been growing more rapidly since the introduction of the once weekly formulation. | 1 | positive |
Additionally, Intel is one of the world's largest manufacturers of NOR flash memory, used primarily in cell phone handsets, which constitute about 7%-8% of sales. | 1 | positive |
We reiterate our Accumulate rating on CZR and our Strong Buy rating on HET. | 1 | positive |
Genzyme is currently studying an improved dosing profile for Synvisc: Synvisc 2. Synvisc 2 is currently undergoing a six month trial comparing one injection of Synvisc 2 vs. a saline placebo control arm. | 0 | neutral |
Interestingly, when we wrote about LUV CDS last quarter, LUV 5yr CDS traded 6bp wide of UNP, as opposed to the current 6bp tight.. | 0 | neutral |
The much anticipated Starbucks Visa card was launched October 13th in New York City. | 0 | neutral |
Monster's brand name is important to its operation and that means substantial marketing costs. | 2 | negative |
We do still expect margin expansion to be a meaningful part of the SGP story, but have incorporated more time for SGP to reach peak potential. | 1 | positive |
Previously, we had considered an acquisition of Nextel by Sprint as attractive. | 1 | positive |
In 2001, USA Interactive acquired a controlling stake in EXPE as Barry Diller attempted to create the leading internet commerce conglomerate. | 0 | neutral |
HDTV went from being a peripheral issue as late as February 2002, to a major emphasis in May 2002. | 0 | neutral |
The study was designed to determine the effect of Rituxan on B-cells in the peripheral blood (PB) and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). | 0 | neutral |
We continue to believe that with the lowering of FY05 guidance behind us, potential upside to top and bottom line estimates as well as deferreds, and an expected cash distribution strategy right around the corner, the stock should outperform heading into the summer. | 1 | positive |
We continue to believe that the commercial construction rebound will fuel strong growth in '05 and '06 led by unitary. | 1 | positive |
Exited out-of-footprint homebuilder loans during 4Q07 and in-footprint during 2Q08 Source: Company reports. | 0 | neutral |
Given that Office 2003 launched last week, the $137 million will be recognized in F2Q.. | 0 | neutral |
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