Datasets:
uid
stringlengths 32
32
| question
stringlengths 16
2.61k
| answer
stringlengths 7
8.6k
| eva4b_label
stringclasses 3
values |
|---|---|---|---|
4addbff893b81f64131fdc712d7a6d9a
|
My first question is regarding the user growth. First half, the user growth is very strong. May I know -- can you share with us the quality and retention and the user profile of the new user growth in first half and about the second half growth and also next year, what is the key focuses of your strategy of user growth? How are you going to balance the user retention and maintain the fast user growth in second half of next year?
|
Last year, we have reinforced and reaffirmed user growth will be our key strategic focus and we have been carrying out the strategy efficiently going through the first half of this year, and have made very positive progress. As for the new user profile you asked, there is no significant change of the new user profile, we still see a lot of new young generations that are coming in. The average age of our new user is about 20 years old. However, we would like to emphasize during the user growth process, we're more focused on the quality over quantity, and the quality of our users can be supported by the daily time spend, daily time spend of 79 minutes per day. And our user engagement were up to 5.2 billion on a monthly basis, and our daily video views reached 1.2 billion. So, all of these numbers supported our users are not growing very -- not only growing very fast, their quality are very, very high. And notably, we've noticed that the new user who come in during the first half of 2020 and also paid for our services within the same period, the ratio has significantly increased compared to the same period last year. And also the new users who came on our platform during 2017, 2018 and 2019 who also stayed and paid for the next few years, their paying ratio is also increasing. So, once again, the -- this set of numbers is a strong testimony of the quality of our new user growth. So here we also wanted to emphasize the methodology of our user growth. The reason why we are very confident in the user growth trajectory is based on the concept that we have been really emphasizing that we use our content to attract user and use our community to retain users. And as you may notice in the first half of this year, we've done some significant progress to allow our content to reach a much broader audiences. And this type of user growth cannot be achieved by purely channel acquisition or user acquisition. If a user comes to our platform simply through the channel acquisition, we cannot retain them if there's no good content. And the key strategy is to allow our content to grow to a much broader category, and this opens up to new -- for us to new demographics. And Bilibili is a community with high engagement level and high retention level. Although our users increased significantly, our overall community maintains the same intensity and continues to be very sticky and with high retention rate. I'll update you the schedule of our user growth plan. So everybody know during Q1, the pandemic period, people have more time in their hands, so that gives us very good window to invest in user growth. And the second quarter, as people are going back to work and return to school, it came to a more stabilized period that we'll be focusing on raising our retention and converting those users to pay users. And notably, we've also made very good progress to raise our brand awareness in the second quarter and achieve pretty good results. And in the Q3 is traditionally strong peak season for us, so that we plan to make additional investment in both brand, as well as channel acquisition. I would also update you with our brand -- branding campaigns. In the second quarter, starting from May, we have made a very successful marketing campaign trilogy profits with Hou Lang, Ru Hai and Xi Xiang Feng, and we believe this series of campaigns as a complete marketing event, which we consider to be the most successful branding campaign among Chinese Internet companies during the second quarter. This proves our ability to not only to do amazing events among young generation, but we also have the ability to touch much wider, broader audiences. And the reason why we want to emphasize on branding campaign is based on our business model, we use content to attract user and community to retain user. As our content continues to evolve to reach broader audiences, one important step, too, is to allow more people to know that Bilibili have so much content to offer, which are in line with our new brand slogan Bilibili-All the Videos You Like. Okay. As far as our Q3 user outlook, we believe we'll reach historical highs during this quarter. And this summer is a little bit special because in July, a majority of the students are still in school, and August is a full month of summer vacation, and September will be the period where students are returning to school. So, in August, we believe we are able to achieve a pretty high MAU target, and on quarterly, monthly average basis we believe we can reach historical high. So, on a single month basis, we believe we can achieve over 200 million MAU target during Q3, on a single month basis. During our brand upgrade campaign this year, our overall brand exposure has achieved over 5 billion times. And the brand recognition level among -- just among the age brackets in between 17 to 35 has raised to 80% -- I'm sorry, 60%. And in the second half, our main focus will be on to convert people from recognizing Bilibili brand to turning to Bilibili users. And we -- during the second half, the marketing campaign were [Phonetic] surrounded our key activity around the key time slots, such as the summer vacation and returning to school, as well as the League of Legends World Championship and our New Year's Eve Gala and many work-like scenario among young generation and to create new content, new brand campaigns and further drive our user growth.
|
direct
|
94527064d9326679d838f6281c3dce58
|
My question is actually regarding your game business, which is quite solid in the second quarter. I wonder could you share more color on the performance of Princess Connect!. Specifically, what's your expectation on the longevity for this game? And secondly, can you give us some update on your game pipeline? Any game launch we can expect, specifically your expectation about the mobile version of Fall Guys?
|
Regarding Princess Connect! Re:Dive, it's like we expect this game will be having very long life cycle, and we expect this game to last quite -- to quite a long period. And for this game, our -- in many aspects, it has broke the historical record. In terms of pre-registered number, we have over 6.5 million people pre-registered, and the newly added user for this game also achieved a record high number. And the success of this game proves two one. One is that the ACG game has become the mainstream of young generation preferences over game genres. And second is, over the years, our ability to operate and sustain our ACG titles have improved significantly. And we're quite confident to continue the success. And for games like Princess Connect!, with such large user base and within the four-month period of operating history, it has been very smooth in terms of operations and technical operations. So, this once again support our testimony that Bilibili is able to operate this genre's game quite well. As for the long life -- the life cycle of this game, we expect it could be something like FGO and to last couple of years. As for our game -- overall game business, currently, we have over 30 games in our pipeline. And those games are not only ACG titles, we have been actively expanding our content offerings across different genres since last year, and we've made a quite good progress on some of the console games, indie games and have received good results. The Fall Guys game that you mentioned is another example of our successful attempt in expanding into new genres. And looking ahead, we'll continue to explore the new genres that will fit to our user demographic. In terms of revenue contribution, we believe ACG titles still have advantage in this area. And in our pipeline, we believe the Sword Art Online: Integral Factor will be a title that could make decent contribution in the revenue department.
|
intermediate
|
8508b6f8a6c9d98107445004218e6f06
|
I have a question on advertising. Our ad revenue growth actually accelerated on a year-over-year basis from -- in the second quarter. Should we expect the ad revenue to sustain such strong momentum in the second half? What are the key drivers behind? Is it brand advertising? Or is it because of performance advertising, including fees? So, what is our expectation for the new ad system we launched in the third quarter for the content providers?
|
Overall 2020 is still full of uncertainties and lots of vitality. However, under this challenging macro environment, we still delivered a pretty good advertising growth rate at 108% year-over-year. So Bilibili has a video platform, we are one of the biggest beneficiary in the overall videolization industry trend. And we have observed that the advertisers' budget has shifted from the traditional portal to the video platforms. As we mentioned earlier, we have invested significantly in expanding our brand awareness and raised our brand influence in the first half. And we have become the must go-to platform for advertisers, who wanted to reach the younger generation demographic, at the same time we also become the media center to create viral marketing event. And Bilibili's brand upgrade, brand awareness increases has direct relationship with advertisers' perception toward Bilibili's brand proposition. So, as our user continue to grow and our PUGV ecosystem continue to thrive, we've seen that we've made decent progress in expanding advert content verticals, such as fashion, lifestyle, technology, fitness, as well as autos. So we are also hoping to reach, expand our advertisers' customers into those industry verticals. So during the second quarter, we didn't make any singular marketing campaign toward certain verticals, but rather emphasizing our overall marketing solutions, as well as Bilibili's brand propositions and influence. And it's working well for us. And we aim to continue this strategy going forward. The reason that the supporting system behind our Q2 strong growth is on our improvement in terms of our advertising products and our advertisers verticals, as well as our AI-powered algorithms to improve our ad efficiencies. And we're confident to carry on this good trajectory into the third quarter. So looking ahead in Q3 and Q4, we are quite confident we can deliver a continued growth rate on our advertisement business and to develop a Bilibili specialty advertisement solution campaign. So the area of focus could be on the e-commerce area. Bilibili's vibrant and engaged community has become many e-commerce platforms' ideal platform to promote shopping festivals and shopping events. So in the second half of this year, this could be a rising sector for us. So as our content verticals expansion, we are quite confident to also expand our advertisers in those verticals. The third point would be on the continuous improvement on our algorithm. We will continue to invest in improving our advertisement efficiency to increase our advertisers' ROI. And the fourth point is on the big events in the second half, there could be new variety shows, as well as new events and gala. And this type of Bilibili specialty event has become the advertisers' favorite advertising avenues to reach young audiences. So the Sparkle [Phonetic] platform is a new platform we launched to help our content creators to connect with brand advertisers. And this platform provides our content creators, a pricing system, order management, as well as settlement services. We're hoping this platform will better serve our content creators to increase and expand their commercial potentials and increase their incomes. Since its launch in July, we have over 8,000 content creator have already participated and signed up for this platform. For the GMV, we'll disclose when we reach a certain milestone. And lastly, we'll continue to focus on ways of improving our data power to provide better decision making assistance, pre-sale or post-sale and to increase our content creators' earning power.
|
direct
|
86f010514cfbe640e9a4c50c482be50e
|
Just wondering what are the major difference in terms of operating know-how and the roadmap between live streaming business and all the core business. Should we consider live streaming as a business that requires some time of incubations and will reach an inflection point on user adoptions? If that's the case, how far are we standing from that inflection point?
|
Live broadcasting business is, as we mentioned earlier, has always been a part of our content ecosystem. This is not a singular commercialization avenue for us, but also an important part of our content. A live broadcasting also provides a very good avenue for our content creators to activate and retain their followers, as well as for them to increase their commercialization potential. So, in the past few years, you may have noticed there's such heavy competition among other live broadcasting platform. However, Bilibili has remained within our own self-sustaining ecosystem that continuously helped talented content creators rising above, and they become our live broadcasting host and are providing very good content. This is quite different. Bilibili's business, live broadcasting business is quite different from other singular live broadcasting platform. Our content offering on the live broadcasting business is actually mirroring what we have to offer on the video platform. For example, our popular game-related video would also be our popular live broadcasting content. And hence that, on Bilibili's live broadcasting verticals, games and talent shows and lifestyle-related content are the top verticals. So you may have seen on our platform, a lot of the popular live broadcasting hosts are also our top popular top content creators. And there are two key factors among the live broadcasting industry. One is the good base of live broadcasting host, and second is a good base of users. And we believe we have these particular audiences for the two factors. We have both the highest quality content creator as, aka, our live broadcasting host, and we also have a very high-quality set of users who love to watch live broadcasting content. So compared to other live broadcasting platforms, you're right about the revenue trajectory, we tend to have more stable growth instead of a sharply increased circle because their platform might pursuing [Phonetic] the signing top content host, which will drive the revenue in a short-term. But the merits of our business model is we tend to have a more stable and sustaining life cycle and our content creator, the live broadcasting hosts life cycle will also tend to be longer period. We're quite confident to become the best platform for video content creators, given that the video equals live broadcasting content on our platform, we're also quite confident that will become one of the most popular live broadcasting platform in the future.
|
intermediate
|
c2b898f6371b6c12c4f164b89d357246
|
Yeah. So I wanted to start obviously particularly in CPP, just outstanding demand. How do you -- I guess, how long do you think this can last and how do you position your products and brands to get more attention and to become repeat purchases and replacement purchases and what do you need to do with this increased focus on your products to fulfill the demand that's out there?
|
Well, I'll start by reminding you that we were having a very good year going into COVID and the strength of our brands, the demand for our product was already ahead of expectations and certainly ahead of last year going into this pandemic. The structural changes that we clearly are seeing of how people are purchasing the types of products that we provide is -- had been moving to a way far more deliberate e-commerce-supported model, and that includes web searching as well as brick and mortar retail and online purchasing. And our strategy has been, for some time, that we're going to be the leading brands and the best products in every product that we sell. That was the story around AMES, that was the story around us buying ClosetMaid and then fitting it into AMES. So the strategy was clearly working. What happened with the stay-at-home is things are accelerating. And there is clearly an economy that's functioning quite well even during this incredibly difficult time.
It's not lost on us that we're at record unemployment, It's not lost on us that we're in a recession and yet our business trends are not only surviving, they're prospering. So that result of being at home we view as, it was working going into this, accelerating during it, and are -- the back-end of your question is what we've been doing in terms of investing in the business. The AMES strategic initiative that we had announced in November was about the future for the company about being able to expand our distribution capability, expand our product offerings. We are believers in brands, we're builders of brands, we've bought companies in every product category. We're at the early stages of what we view as the AMES growth initiative. And what you see in this quarter is clearly a very robust demand. At the same time, aside of operating efficiencies that were already in place, driving increased performance. So our plan going forward is to continue to do exactly what we have been doing in building the brands and supporting the best retailers, both brick and mortar and online for every product that we sell.
|
intermediate
|
5131a5d75aeb8b7aa1a46b688ca82c82
|
Okay, that's great, very helpful. And then, shifting over to Telephonics, the international is coming on and margins were a little late, I guess, in the quarter. How do you see -- is this year kind of the trough? Can we see some growth adjusting for the SEG, the potential strategic alternatives as you said? And so, how do you kind of look at the next 12 to 24 months on the Telephonics side?
|
Yeah. We've talked about for some time that the Telephonics business was bottoming. We view that process as having played out as we expected. COVID clearly has had an impact on timing of orders, but the demand for the core surveillance and reconnaissance products, particularly radar systems, we continue to see the backlog improving. We expect that to showcase itself in the fourth quarter. The sale of SEG is the conclusion of what's been a very nice piece of Telephonics and the story behind it is we bought it in 2005, we've built it up, the sale of it is really about three things. One, it allows us to focus on the core of what Telephonics does. It should be a margin improvement story prospectively for us and it will be a small but meaningful additional part of our deleveraging story. So it's a gain. It's a business that we have built and the harvesting of it is part of our broader strategy of continuing to grow the core of Telephonics.
|
direct
|
d5a6c671f1ca4be6b5126b9b9e80e882
|
So on CPP, the strength you're seeing there, can you give us a little more granularity on what products are leading that growth? I know, you've got a very diverse portfolio and you called out outdoor lawn and garden, but you've also got some indoor lines like ClosetMaid, that I assume would have also done well, given everyone's kind of cooped up indoors. So I was hoping you could give us some specific examples of some product lines that are kind of leading that growth.
|
Sure. So, you sort of hit it. We have seen growth in demand of -- in both lawn and garden and the home organization side. Home organization is a -- pretty much a do-it-yourself type item where people can buy the products either at a store or online and install it. Home and garden, of course, is something that's done mostly outside and we are seeing people using their time at home and the fact that they're not spending on other things such as travel or going to restaurants and investing in their homes. And generally speaking, our products are at price points that are affordable. They're not very large ticket items. And that's what's been driving some of that demand.
|
intermediate
|
a9d714f48bbfb5faa7edea19be1b6464
|
Got it. And could you talk about maybe the sequential trend in CPP? Maybe how that business performed in May and June, and maybe give us a sense of how trends and fill rates are quarter-to-date?
|
We continue to see trends improving. The stabilization had happened after the last time we spoke, which was late April, went into May, accelerated into the end of the quarter and continues into July. We expect this is going to continue: the market share gains of the products that we provide, the domestic manufacturingand distribution, and we've been talking for several years that this focus of ours on being able to support the biggest providers of all the products, it's clear that the supply chains are moving to domestically sourced product. We are the leading product, leading market share in every major product category that we sell and we're going to continue to invest in the brands to make sure that we get increased market share as we go forward.
|
intermediate
|
550e9e976794be31aa6603e0e6131f1f
|
Got it. And you saw a really nice rebound on the residential garage door side. I remember last quarter you called out some customer hesitancy on the retail side, individuals kind of didn't want to stand in line at major home centers. Do you think there has been more of a change in customer behavior since April or was it more like the dealer side that drove that growth?
|
So, yes, correct. We saw a decline in April. Our orders in April were down 18%, mostly being driven by home centers, retail type sales, with some decline in the dealers. As we progressed into May, sales started to normalize on all those channels and then come June and into July, sales accelerated quite well. And the commercial side saw good and normal volume and sales through the entire period.
And we continue to see that trending up. The other point that I'll just make is the commercial side of the business is doing well. We bought CornellCookson, we had talked about the ability to provide the rolling steel doors as part of the warehouse business that was going to grow. Retail was going to continue to go through a transformation. The security part of our business, we're the leading manufacturer of a series of security doors, which is called the Defender Series, continues to show growth. The civil unrest that's going on around the country has actually spurred a level of demand in that business. The Clopay business was already the leading residential manufacturer. Owning CornellCookson gives us a leverage and we're at the early days of the integration of that business, obviously very gratifying to see the recovery from April residentially into May and it's, in our view, a reflection of the stay-at-home trends that are gone.
|
direct
|
df337e6d2090af19ead61f4dabd87015
|
I guess my first question, just curious on channel inventory, particularly in CPP. How would you characterize that relative to normal? We're hearing some of the categories are pretty tight just in terms of the level of demand, kind of, in May and June and into July. So I'm just curious how you'd characterize some of your partners' channel inventories within your categories?
|
So we have actually seen good demand for our products as we've already discussed. We have been able to service our customers very well. Our domestic manufacturing capability has really benefited us compared to others. So when major home centers need products, we are able to provide it to them or when any other home center or retail are needed. So we have adequate inventory and adequate manufacturing capability to continue to provide those products.
I think, in general, the inventory levels that we're seeing across -- and remember we service all of the major retailers from Home Depot to Loweâs to Menards, the national hardware chains, the mass retailers. This is a trend that we continue to see that they're ordering more.
|
intermediate
|
2ac773406d2442a33459e3b5ddc15183
|
Okay. Okay. And then as you think of the strategic initiatives, could you just talk about kind of where you're at on the process there and just has the pandemic, through the quarter, had any impact on the timing or are you guys ahead or kind of on track there?
|
We continue to be on track. It's a three-year plan. Things are going on as planned, on budget, on time. Nothing has slowed down from the pandemic.
|
direct
|
6e0c9ecda71aaa603312aaf9d345f53e
|
Okay, great. And then the free cash flow performance in the quarter was really good. How should we think about free cash flow maybe in the fourth quarter? Should you also have a pretty good quarter, just given the demand strength you've seen?
|
Yes. So, our second half of the year, that's our Q3 that we just ended, and our Q4 is our strongest cash flow months, cash generation quarters, I should say. And we continue to expect to increase cash flow into the fourth quarter.
|
direct
|
4de564dbafa396dce8ce6268a2fb3af4
|
First question, if I could just try and get a sense when you are able -- reiterating the 2019 EBITDA outlook despite the lowering of sales, which is just obviously pretty encouraging. I was -- would love to get a sense of since a quarter ago, you've had different changes occur in your outlook, obviously you've cited some pluses and some minuses, some -- some tailwinds and some headwinds. When you think about the reiteration of the EBITDA guidance. I'd love to get a sense of obviously, everything kind of offset each other, but -- relative to a quarter ago, if you can kind of give us a -- any type of quantification of what the EBIT, the incremental negative impact on EBITDA was from, some of the headwinds that you've discussed, like the softer sales backdrop, the more competitive backdrop that you're seeing as a result of that in Australia and Canada, maybe even in the US. And then offsetting that, maybe what some of the positives are that you're seeing that allowed you to maintain that full year EBITDA guidance.
|
Hi, Michael, it's Yuval. Yeah, thanks for the question. I think, putting the growth acceleration plan in front of us, as the new platform. It's actually allowed us to put quite many projects together in order to speed up the improvement and efficiencies in our company. And I think what we got from the first quarter, the second one is a nice tailwind, if you like, to allow us to, to absorb this reduction in revenue. So all in all, I think we're growing the US and we have more and more challenging times in Australia and Canada. But the actions we took in the first quarter, across-the-board, in all over the -- in the company, in all functions and regions, kind of allowing us to -- to kind of bit more confident with EBITDA performance for year. Yeah. And just to complete, we reduced the headcount by 7% as we announced, the part of it was temporarily reducing the capacity in our Richmond Hill facility in the US to 50%. So all this -- and then in addition to that, cut other operating expenses that gives us the confidence that we can achieve the EBITDA target for the year. I would like to add to that, that we are expecting to increase partially the capacity utilization in our factories in the second half of the year. So this is also something that will help us, improve our margins.
|
intermediate
|
b8703adf7660fa6685f3616870422b8a
|
So maybe asked another way, obviously a quarter ago, you were still -- the global growth acceleration plan, the headcount reduction, the reduction in capacity, all of those things were expected -- a part of the plan three months ago. However, three months ago, you weren't expecting as much of a softer sales backdrop and some of the additional headwinds -- tougher sales environment in Australia, Canada, the more competitive environment, those things you were not expecting and that, that hurt your performance or reduced your sales growth outlook. What I'm trying to get a sense of it, let's say you didn't have those incremental headwinds, would we be looking at a -- an increase in EBITDA guidance by a certain amount because obviously you are still expecting all those benefits and they just got offset by these incremental headwinds. So I'm just trying to get a quantification of what that difference was?
|
Yeah, so, first -- there are different dynamics here from FX rates to prices of raw materials, that also changed and provided some headwind, a tailwind. So if you were look at that. I think that we also identified some things that were less clear to us that we can achieve in this year and we will manage to have a clearer path on achieving them this year and we have more confidence that we can achieve more efficiencies in our operating expenses and hence, we think that, this is achievable. And also, Mike, in terms of organizational behavior, if you like. You see all leaders kind of joining forces together, and I'm very excited with this behavior. So wherever we could find an upside to bring back to the P&L by executing that, that was exactly what we were kind of doing, and I think we've delivered on our expectation in that sense.
|
intermediate
|
d15be73375d5cd3271c86e31a909531b
|
Any quantification on the raw material benefit this year relative to your outlook three months ago?
|
Yeah, I can say that -- if you look at it in the -- in this quarter, it was compared to last year it was 1%, approximately 1%. It will give us a few -- I think, it will be less less than 1% in the -- for the full year, but it was tailwind.
|
intermediate
|
6a03badc24cb7d2a3b8ee240f8712bb4
|
Secondly, maybe I could ask a question more broadly about your competitive position in the US. In the past, you've given out market share data that kind of puts you in the low double-digits, 10%,12% or so, maybe a little bit more in terms of your market share in the US. I think those share positions were kind of last published in the last couple of years, just trying to get a sense of, how you think about your updated, your current competitive position in the marketplace, I mean, over the last couple of years, the marketplace has changed dramatically, maybe you could kind of walk through by channel where you think your position from a share standpoint? Who are the other major competitors? And why you think you can -- I am -- I am assuming obviously over the last couple of years, the market has grown perhaps you've lost a little bit of share. How you're thinking about regaining that share.
|
It's good comment, Michael. I think, it's been a few quarters that, and maybe more, but we are saying to the market and to ourselves, that most of our current performance in the US are in our hands to improve and to work on, and I think that is what happening in the last quarter or two. We put a new team in place, we created the North American region. We took our best talent in the region and put them in the more senior positions. And I think we started to see the fruits or the improvements coming to -- to be in our side. All in all, it was -- in the past, it was our focus -- sorry, our guess of the market share in our view and I think it's -- it's too early to say whether say in a different position. Now, definitely what I can say is that we are more -- way more confident that we can capture the opportunity that that we've seen in the market in the US, and we're definitely going to see growth coming from the US business over the next quarters.
|
intermediate
|
9a1c8ed5c53ffe5b4c29929217a0ec0e
|
Alright. One last one, if I could. I think you said that in the US, the imports -- the China -- the tariffs or duties on the China imports, -- Chinese imports in the US are fully in place, but did I hear right that you said that you're also now seeing maybe an increase in imports in India and Turkey and I just wanted to make sure, I heard that right, and if you could give us a sense if the amount of imports from those regions are equal to the prior amount of imports from China? Are they half of the amount of imports from China? Just trying to get a sense of how big that activity is, and to the extent that it's replacing any of the prior Chinese import activity?
|
Yeah, Mike. That's a very good point. We see a significant increase in the import from low cost manufacturers, specifically more in India -- from India, Turkey, but from others as well. In terms of the magnitude, if you look at the import data publishing -- import data from March, April, May, and compared it to the equivalent period. Last year, you see that there is a significant say, replacement of the Chinese import by, I wouldn't say why, but one by one, but it's pretty close to what was the to the level that was imported last year. So I think that there is no vacuum here. I would say that, that the growth --- that's why we said that the growth that we see is more related to the actions that we are taking and the changes that they were made in the US organization under the new leadership there and as we said, we are planning to expand our footprint in the US because we think there is a really great opportunity for us in this -- in this market to grow in the coming years.
|
direct
|
6c8b136f9c64f4d508f4ee297e2f6fc3
|
Thanks. Good morning, gentlemen. I want a follow up and ask a follow up on the India and Turkey and other countries that you're seeing import into the US. Is that a -- are you seeing similar -- either landed prices or retail or however you want to measure the price point, is it still -- is it still a pricing headwind that you were -- you had experience in the past with the Chinese competition that was pretty disruptive to the business?
|
Hi, Dillard, it's it's Yuval. I think it's pretty much the same. We are -- from the data that we have, we are experiencing probably the similar price points coming from different locations. I guess, -- the change from China to India is actually in the same segment with the same prices. So obviously, average price, so it's -- it has -- these are accuracy measurement, but all in all I think normal I think, you'll see the same -- same behavior in the market. There's no shortfall of the low cost manufacturing slabs or sources in the US and again, I think it's -- it's mostly what we are doing internally in our business to capture the opportunity rather than less of competition.
|
direct
|
ebbde128912801c78d2dfbb46e3ade11
|
Okay. And then I hate to belabor the point too much here on the various low cost competition, but if it's coming in now to Canada, Australia, does they have benefit -- a little bit of some mix of hindsight and experience from what has occurred in the US, -- what might be the strategy to offset some of the volume pressures in those other countries at the same time that you're having some macro pressures there.
|
I think what we're experiencing is more competition in Australia and Canada, mostly in the commercial area with the high rise building and multi-units. This is where -- it's more price sensitive and we see more competition coming. It's only partial or part of our portfolio in those countries and I think we continue to build on our very strong Caesarstone brand in those countries we are very strong with, consumers and the K&B shops. And I think we'll continue to work on, on the demand throughout coming in this -- in this market. And to add to that, it's really -- when you look at the Australian housing market, it's a very soft market conditions that combined with the competition, gets us to that result, but need to take that into consideration, that the market conditions are pretty soft.
|
intermediate
|
ef1ec9d10615d0c3dd66a54262a38358
|
Yeah. Okay, and then lastly for me, if there's any update on any possible news with the home centers here in the US, that would great.
|
So, no formal news at the moment. We are still working on this relationship -- this relationship, I think it's going well so far, but not to the point that we can advise the market on a new deal or that -- or the full agreement on those relationship, but there was still keeping positive on this opportunity.
|
direct
|
40c7bfd311548af270f9bf219d6d4662
|
So it's fair to say then that the acceleration in the core business came from more the K&B [Phonetic] type side of the business.
|
Yeah, for sure. I mean, in the US, we saw a decline in IKEA this quarter as well, but the core business grew 12% and it came from K&B, in our retail side of the business and from [Phonetic] the new building, but not from their big books.
|
direct
|
da539e8b49a1a6e4a4fd620d61fa0ed9
|
Thanks. Could I get a sense of what your price mix was or average sales price this quarter versus last quarter versus a year ago?
|
When you when you look at the ASP, you need to take into consideration that it's, the combination of mix -- regional mix, the product mix and of course, it's affected by the different foreign exchange rates between the quarter. The period, I can say that compared to last year, there was a small decline in the price, but I think it's not -- I mean, something that it's much more -- a much expected in this environment. Going forward, the fact that we are going to grow in the US and this is where we see the growth coming. We expect to see better prices there, and then I think that overall mix is this -- in the US, it's better and we should expect the growth in the ASP once we grow more in the portion of the US is higher.
|
intermediate
|
fc1faba6cf3281107d6b224546d7364e
|
I appreciate that. Particularly, given all the complexities with the different regions, maybe just focusing on the US, if you could give us a sense of what price what's your ASP, did last year, and what you expect it to do this year? What you hope it can do in 2020.
|
Mike, I just think -- we would like to take a look at the net numbers and we will come back to you, just a second.
|
fully_evasive
|
3caeb9826af9701ee13840dba858ba14
|
Okay. Maybe one -- other one while you're looking at that. The IKEA business has obviously been a lot of volatility -- a source of a lot of volatility. In the last couple of years, I think both in the US and most notably, but also Canada to a -- to a secondary extent. I was just trying to get a sense of what percent of the -- roughly what percent of the business in the US and in number one and secondly in Canada, what, what does IKEA represent as a percent of the business? And, is this a partner that makes sense strategically given all the volatility?
|
Just before the numbers, Michael, I guess the fact that they're growing in their core business, I think gives a hint on where we are putting our focus and it's definitely -- everything that is in our hands and the relationship that we can build with consumers and customers is where we are putting our focus and resources. And yes, I think that the IKEA revenue keeps being volatile and we see that growth in this quarter as well. So, yeah, we are reporting on that, it's still part of our business, but definitely there our focus is on the retail side of the business. Yes, as for the percentage, it's a -- it's less than 10% of our overall revenues as a company and provide us a good, our profitability and it's good business for us, but it's, less than 10% of our overall business.
|
intermediate
|
08f86413aa294195e652573fafa7b940
|
On the labor cost side, last quarter you said that you anticipated retaining most of your labor arbitrage through year-end. That is a big part of your margin expansion coming from labor savings. But here we are a couple of months later and inflation is on the rise and on the forefront of everyone's mind, do you think the piece of your margin expansion that came from labor savings over the last 12 months, is it your expectation that eventually gets inflated away in the coming periods?
|
Yes, that's our expectation, but there are some mitigating factors:
- 50% of revenues come from unionized labor with above market wages and benefits, so we don't see pressure there.
- We've put together a task force focused on recruiting and labor efficiencies.
- We're targeting certain geographic areas that have more pressure.
- We've navigated labor pressures before in 2018-2019.
- We'll maintain some savings from restaffing efficiencies.
- We ultimately pass labor cost increases through to customers, though not immediately.
- We have better HR systems and data now to manage this.
|
direct
|
71a7fd6766221d9a5e7f10456e19cc38
|
Any of the investments that you've made recently, is there anything there that would help you pass on this cost in a different way, new capabilities that you have -- that you hadn't had before? Or is that not really related to this piece of the business?
|
The newer investments are not necessarily directly related to passing on labor costs. However, we did upgrade our HR system to the cloud a couple years ago, which gives us much better insight and information on labor data. This helps us identify pressure points and dynamically staff, which is key in managing labor costs.
|
direct
|
9d48629ec7a453fade6e5afba589596d
|
Is labor availability a major issue for you right now? And if so, has this affected service levels in any material way?
|
Labor availability is always top of mind given our business, but it's still early to fully assess:
- Federal unemployment stimulus of $300/week is keeping some people at home, but states are starting to roll this off.
- We don't have massive labor needs right now due to muted office occupancy and travel.
- We'll have a better sense in September when federal stimulus ends and more people return to work.
- For now we're navigating it well, but at muted demand levels.
|
intermediate
|
83cd7934248e2a07fbc6c1f337091303
|
I'm just wondering how much we can extrapolate from the second half about the updated margin guidance as we think about what's sustainable going into next year. Is this implied second-half run rate sustainable? What are the big moving parts we really need to consider in our models going into next year relative to that run rate?
|
We're not ready to guide for FY22 yet, but here are some factors to consider:
- We're confident about the second half of FY21, which is why we raised guidance.
- EnhancedClean and work orders are expected to remain strong.
- Office occupancy is expected to increase, driving more revenue and disinfection services.
- We'll give back some labor efficiencies as we restaff buildings.
- Technical Solutions has a record backlog and increasing project churn rate.
- Revenues should increase in H2, with strong disinfection demand and ATS projects ramping up.
- The return to work trend should continue into early FY22.
Overall, we expect a good start to FY22 but it's too early to provide specific guidance.
|
intermediate
|
c58dad79b09e9a3d5122a162bc55251f
|
Could you just talk -- speak to the velocity in the acquisition pipeline? I'm hearing from a lot of companies that sort of tell you the decision making is really accelerating here?
|
There is definitely more M&A activity now compared to last year:
- We've only recently started looking at acquisitions again after pausing during the pandemic.
- There are opportunities, and as a strategic buyer we have synergies that make us competitive.
- M&A is a priority for us to drive growth.
- We're excited about what we're starting to see in the pipeline.
|
intermediate
|
aa3e4c4eb96f8a279f5a3e36f4a50927
|
Do you expect that those will be negotiated contracts? Or as they look to increase the size, do you think, generally speaking, that your customers, as they look to increase the amount of cleaning that they do, that they got to rebid with that? And what do you think, as these things become part of the base contract and less tag worker or work order work? What, if any, implications are there to the margins?
|
We expect enhanced cleaning services to eventually be incorporated into base contracts:
- This will likely happen over the next 1-2 years as contracts come up for renewal.
- Margins on this work may decline from current 30% levels, but should still be higher than standard services due to training, equipment, etc.
- For smaller clients, it may remain on a work order basis.
- We're not seeing much rebidding activity yet, as facility managers are focused on return-to-work planning.
- Formal rebidding may not happen until FY22-23 when occupancy patterns are clearer.
|
direct
|
ce12191315120d7b58510ba5edd68aee
|
I'm wondering, I wouldn't expect that it's in the backlog yet, but are you bidding projects that you can kind of tie to these moneys that have been allocated already? You mentioned the record backlog, I'm just kind of curious as to -- if that's kind of before the stimulus here or after the stimulus and any comments that you have on that in particular?
|
We haven't seen direct effects of stimulus funding yet, but:
- There's increased activity for our Bundled Energy Solutions offerings as clients look to reduce operating expenses.
- The administration's focus on decarbonization and e-mobility is driving growth in EV charging stations.
- We expect these trends to be tailwinds in FY22 and FY23.
- The current record backlog is from pre-stimulus activity.
|
direct
|
aa285d54522dcbadecefbe8905386b3c
|
I was just wondering if you could give us an update there on whether you think the current pace of, let's say, the reopening of workplaces and social venues and things? I mean, should we be thinking that, that reserve might be reversed in coming quarters? And what's your -- maybe just an update on that issue, please.
|
Regarding the $18 million project reserve taken previously:
- We are in active discussions about this.
- It's difficult to comment further as the situation is ongoing.
- We don't give up on reserves and continue to pursue resolution.
- More updates will come in future quarters.
|
intermediate
|
aba8f9f93dbf1bb31a048cfb806c0c48
|
I was just wondering if you could point to any tangible results in particular, product lines or sub-sectors that where you think the greater awareness, the greater visibility has made a difference? And then secondly, maybe just a longer-term perspective. In other words, your company has been in business for over a century. You already have a national footprint and yet you kind of have redoubled your marketing efforts here. Maybe if you could just point to, maybe from a one or two-year perspective. I mean, where do you think that that greater awareness, the branding efforts are going to have the biggest effect?
|
The increased marketing and branding efforts are aimed at creating differentiation:
- We're highlighting ABM's scale and resources vs regional competitors.
- This was evident during the pandemic with our supply chain capabilities and expert advisory council.
- We've seen a ~10% increase in website traffic and more digital sales leads.
- We hope this will improve client retention, where a 1% increase is significant.
- The goal is to create separation between ABM and smaller regional competitors.
- Long-term, this could drive clients to switch from regional players to ABM for higher service levels.
- It may also help penetrate new regional markets.
|
intermediate
|
c5b8ae19e27853c1e8a8423ae7f8f703
|
Just wanted to touch a little bit on whether or not there is any particular areas that you would view as priorities or things that are kind of top of the list that you'd like to see accomplish, whether it'd be a regional selling or a service line area. How should we think about your prioritization of potential acquisitions?
|
Our acquisition priorities are:
1. Focusing on our core businesses - janitorial, engineering, virus protection.
2. Growing our Technical Solutions (ATS) segment, which is fastest growing and most profitable.
3. Looking for scale, as integrating larger companies is more efficient.
4. Filling in geographic gaps, especially for the ATS business.
5. Being strategic and planful rather than reactive in our approach.
We plan to stick to our core competencies before expanding into adjacent areas.
|
direct
|
be59f5ce0dc8288e9af82d5fb3e7342e
|
I was wondering if you can talk a little bit more about some of the conversations that you're having within the education space and maybe some of the commentary there or maybe what you're seeing from the benefits of funding that kind of gives you -- it seems as though it gives you greater confidence for the upcoming school year.
|
For the education sector:
- There's a strong shift towards in-person learning for the fall.
- Clean, safe buildings are a top priority for educators and parents.
- We expect a strong comeback in Education revenues, unlike the gradual return in office settings.
- Education could see close to 100% occupancy in fall, vs partial occupancy in offices.
- This should drive increased demand for our services.
- We'll give back some labor efficiency gains, but overall revenue should increase significantly.
|
direct
|
5577571cea2ad6c5ba7357abb28732c1
|
Wanted to talk a little bit about views of future share repurchase and how we should think about, sort of given the strength of the business versus where your stock price is now, kind of how your thoughts are evolving there?
|
Regarding capital allocation and share repurchases:
- We're pleased with our current cash position and low leverage.
- The priority is to deploy capital for long-term growth, both organic and inorganic.
- We have $145 million authorization from the Board for share buybacks.
- We'll maintain flexibility in capital allocation.
- For now, the focus is on allocating capital for growth purposes rather than share repurchases.
|
intermediate
|
880d9e0f2b7037d41362dad15161c124
|
I just wanted to focus on Canada a bit. You mentioned both inflationary pressures and sort of normalizing behavior compared to the COVID impact from last year for the declines there. I'm just wondering if the read through there is that competition from sort of more operators in the market was not a factor there or just less of a factor. And maybe you can just as a follow up, also touch on the delay in the licensing for Spin and whether last quarter you talked about you're still able to operate in as you were previously with regulator knowledge. I'm wondering if that took place throughout the entire period from last quarter to now or if there's any change to that.
|
OK. So I'll take that. So yes, with Canada, as with all other markets, we operate in, there is competition. There's competition in all our markets. So for us is Canada is we're the same company as we were a year ago. Canada is all about, obviously, gaming now regulated in Ontario with Betway went last week and then Spin going next week. So up to now they've been operating on the old software and they've now moved over. And Betway in the last seven to eight days is in line with our expectations. So Spin's going next week. So we've learned a lot from Betway and then we can implement that into Spin.
|
intermediate
|
8ebe01c97e53cb9cd9c0e19cd2b2e6e9
|
Maybe to start, if you could talk about the 20 million to 25 million of cost reductions. Just to be clear on the timing, are those all happening in '22? So you'll receive the full benefit in 2030? And then given the cost reductions, is 25% EBITDA margin something that's achievable in '23?
|
Thanks, Bernie. Alinda here. We started the process and we've -- it was a continuous process anyway since our listing to look at our cost base. In my presentation, I make references. 2022 is where we really started to focus. We will see it in the last quarter coming to fruition. But the impact of the 20 million to 25 million is in 2023 and that will obviously be visible on the margin. And to your question regarding the 25% margin, I mean, obviously, like I said, the 17% to 19% margin is not where we would like to be. We're aiming for 20% and continuous growth in that margin by getting all our ratios back intact with a focus on our top-line growth.
|
intermediate
|
2341dd1c54c8a4eb86e5a26e6ced4353
|
Understood and would just love some commentary in terms of what you're seeing from the customer LTVs and -- because of the macro? And what -- in the COVID comparisons, whether it's players turning off altogether, whether people are playing less and engaging less, if it's smaller bet size, less handle. We just like to see what's actually happening underneath the hood.
|
First of all, listen, it's across the globe. Because we're global, it's not just one country, it's across the globe. So you see different effects in different markets. But definitely from our point of view is it's just that the discretionary spend of our customer is has come down. But in other markets, they -- we've got more customers so maybe their spend is slightly down but then we are -- they are spending more over time with us because we've got more customers. So it's definitely a macroeconomic headwind but that's why I said it's -- as this levels out, then -- and post-COVID, we are being [Inaudible]. As I say, we still got 2.7 million users using our software and that's going up.
|
intermediate
|
b25c1808b2ba88d8a5ae86fa1c295f48
|
The -- I guess just to double click on the macro again. It seemed like the online casino player was historically been fairly resilient in times of sort of economic distress. And while we have inflation, we also have strong employment. And of course, you're global and I'm looking from a U.S. lens. So I guess if we could again, I guess sort of understand why it's different this time. And I think you mentioned that perhaps your sports betting client was doing better than your gaming. I think I heard that. I'm just curious if that's true and why that is.
|
So first of all, gaming's not immune, right. It's resilient but again, we've never seen inflation like this in 40 to 50 years. In our now 20 years, we haven't seen it yet. We've seen downturns in 2008 with financial crisis, but not something that's affected our customer's discretionary spend. So -- but because we're global, different markets and including sports have different customer values, etc. But from our point of view, again, it's about what's happening in each of these countries, each of these markets, and how and how the customers are engaging on our platform.
|
intermediate
|
2ee2810bca627b04df25d751e97806d8
|
Fair enough. Inflation's brutal. I agree with you. I guess so. When your players are strained, I mean, how do you adjust your playbook or your app to sort of account for that weakness? I mean, how does that sort of change your whole target? How does that change your promotional activity? What adjustments have you made or do you plan to make for a player that is dealing with macro issues that could extend for another six to 18 months?
|
Then I guess that becomes to your customer accounts again. And it's having more customers spending slightly less but in different markets they are different player. There are baskets, etc., for that. So from our point of view, remember, this business is a mass market business. This is not a business of high valued customers. This is a business across the spectrum. So it's about the numbers of customers and your software being able to be superior in those markets and giving them the customer entertainment experience that they want and offering them the right casino games that they like it. But if it's lower bet size games. And remember, our algorithms and everything that we do is based on the -- is individualized to the customers. And then same with sports betting, it's offering them all the different sports events that they would like to bet on. And that's why we're saying when you've got lots of these competitions, for example, last year, this in June, last year we had the euro and now we didn't have the World Cup this year, but the World Cup is coming in November and December. So when you compare this June to last June, it isn't a fair comparison. So all of that helps with when bringing the customers into the software and then they'll play better.
|
intermediate
|
f184991bc8c16349cd0174daa5e24165
|
The last question for me is on the U.S. market. I'm sorry if I missed this. Are you -- just sort of the timeline, I guess, on DGC. It seems like it's been hanging out there for a while. Curious -- sorry again, Neal, you mentioned this, but just where you are in closing that transaction. And then maybe just reexamine, given everything that's changed so fast in terms of the macro conditions, how you're thinking about entering the U.S. market today versus six months or a year ago, and how you think about the impact to your '23 numbers. I think, Alinda, originally you're saying it was sort of a these are my numbers. Maybe it was 8 million to 13 million in annual negative adjusted EBITDA impact. Just curious if that's still the same range you're thinking and if your intent or your playbook or design of going to the U.S. market is the same given all the volatility.
|
Hi, there. Richard here. So the closing of the DGC acquisition is still on track for our target, our goal of having that done by the end of the year. As you mentioned before, there are a number of licenses that Super Group needs to be granted before that time. So we're obviously working to the timelines of the regulators in those various states. So that remains our goal. In terms of the U.S., our plan remains very much the same. The -- in terms of the 2023 targets, in terms of the 2023 numbers, we expect the range of impact to EBITDA assuming that DGC is within the Super Group for the whole year to be between EUR 50 million and EUR 70 million with our target break even for the end of 2024, beginning of 2025.
|
direct
|
78e1d70cfd815f44c17219a637121da3
|
Circling back to the macro, can you talk about what regions you're sort of seeing impacting that due to the higher dollar? Because just trying to reconcile with what you're seeing. I know you're global versus what we heard last week from some of the North American operators where they're not seeing an impact and you also heard that in travel as well, particularly Europe and travel in Europe is stronger. So are you seeing more of an impact in APAC and Africa? And then just on the change in the revenue, can you talk about like is that a benefit or can you talk about how that that impacts the financials and the growth rates?
|
OK. So I'll just say because we -- we're the same company as we always have been. So because we're in the global marketplace across the world, of course, we have currency fluctuations but coming out of Africa, APAC, etc., right. So from us, those currencies are always swinging against the dollar's or the euro's, right. So that, we've had anyway and we continue to grow the revenues in those markets despite -- even if it is offset slightly by some currency losses in those markets. But that's the global nature of Super Group and from that point of view. So for us is yes, and we -- I can't comment on our competitors. But remember, we are not in the U.S. We are across the world. So we have global factors across the world in the market that we operate in.
And then just on your question regarding the guidance for revenue, we -- the guidance is high quality revenue. I'm being very precise in the reforecast because to make sure that it's a strong, achievable target for all our businesses and to make sure that it's the high quality revenue that comes through and that our teams are very focused on are now achieving for the remainder of the year.
|
intermediate
|
069fe91a93efcab2fbe8d10cc4e4be7c
|
And then it seems that you're going -- you're getting live in Ontario this week. Is there a margin drag or anything we should be thinking about from paying like a higher tax rate or anything now that you're going to be, I guess, on the legalized or not legalized, but regulated -- you'll be a regulated operator in Ontario. How should we think about that in the back half on the margins?
|
Yeah. So it -- I mean, like previously stated as well, the initial introduction into the regulatory environment is always a bit of an impact on the margin, but we've got all systems in place to make sure that margin is recovered toward the end of the year with the most important impact is that even though you've got -- I referred to it as agency fee, which is the tax that you're implying about, the most important thing is that we that we -- that the costs associated is -- should theoretically come down as well, like better processing capabilities so your variable cost is in line then will be reduced. But also, our cost base is intact for that Ontario transfer and to make sure that our margins for Ontario is as per expectation of our guidance.
|
direct
|
1bbfa55176f9dca0465775f801769484
|
Got it. And then just one more for me. Just as we look out to next year sort of the countries the Netherlands, Germany, where you're having the regulatory headwinds, I mean, do you expect to be operating in those countries next year? And can that actually become a tailwind or how should we think about that?
|
No. Well, Germany, we're still operating in Germany. So just there's no casino in Germany but Netherlands, we're still working with the regulator but it's not in any of our guidance for 2022.
|
direct
|
c0d3d4c9b0d0fab4ed5c2fee1e604e34
|
What about what about '23 would you be expected to be operating there?
|
Yeah, yeah. So Germany, yes. And then Netherlands, we have said it all depends on the regulators in that market.
|
intermediate
|
b2610f52a6be4c67384ed01dfcd68012
|
OK. So that would be an additional market you're live in for next year.
|
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But Germany, we're currently live with now. We just don't have iCasino. So it depends on the iCasino and the taxes that they want in Germany will then depend if it's feasible for us to do iCasino, iGaming in Germany.
|
intermediate
|
d7bb6270a0d634e415f0072cfab9dbfa
|
Jonathan, I wonder if we could circle back to the transaction and talk about the decision to pursue an Up-C corporate structure as opposed to a Full-C conversion maybe kind of what were the puts and takes there and what kind of the benefits might be to an Up-C versus a full corporate conversion?
|
Sure. Thank you. So, the Up-C structure really provides multiple benefits. For us, it allows us to have access to a broader investor base, obviously together with the IDR simplification, we also will have a line [Phonetic] interest between the sponsors and our public equity holders. But in addition, it also, because ultimately the Up-C has a partnership at its base allows us to maintain significant integration with Hess Corporation, which has as our anchor customer and also as we co-develop, if you will, the Bakken together to optimize it and its 20% production growth is really underpinning our growth. So, that integration is really critical. So really the ability to have that broader investor base, but at the same time be able to maintain that integration was really key and allow the Up-C to be ideal choice for us.
|
direct
|
8298e8835679a43d162fa40dc3bf479b
|
I guess, moving on to the TGP expansion, I know you've talked about a turnaround period at some point during next year and you've kind of already provided guidance for what the full year throughput volumes will be, just wonder if you all could maybe provide a little more clarity in terms of the actual timing of when the turnaround will take place?
|
Sure. Thanks for the question. We're still in the planning phases of the turnaround. And that's -- so it's still moving around, as far as the actual duration of the turnaround itself, again, this is a maintenance turnaround that was already in the plan as it was built in and we're actually taking advantage of the maintenance turnaround to complete the expansion activities over that period of time. And all of this has been built into our plan, so it's in Hess' plan, it's also in Hess Midstream's plan as well. And we'll provide more information on the turnaround itself in the -- during the January call.
|
intermediate
|
6910d9ac4148ba90784a9a4d8ef1582d
|
On the saltwater disposal business, obviously, understanding it's new to the structure, can you just talk about the capex requirements for that business to continue to grow at over the next couple of years and how that kind of fits in with your ongoing maintenance and kind of sustaining capex program of well tie-ins on an annual basis going forward?
|
Sure. And I guess, it's important to note as far as the water business goes, we've been kind of running the midstream business for some period of time both the obviously the Hess Infrastructure Partners, Hess Midstream, but also some of the Midstream assets that sat with Hess. So, these are not new assets to us, we've been actually operating these assets with the intent of packaging them and selling them into or -- Hess selling them into Hess Infrastructure Partners us acquiring and then ultimately making them available for Hess Midstream. So, that's been the plan and we've actually been actively managing the business and growing the business, as part of that.
As far as the capital requirements go, again, this is a growth business for us. This is considered expansion, as you know, essentially all of the, what I would say, non-traditional which would be like equipment replacements, things like that it goes into our expansion line from a capital perspective, this would all be expansion capital for us, it is -- has been and I would say the base in [Phonetic], generally speaking, has been under-invested in water services. So, it is a growth opportunity for us, it's got a substantial growth profile. I would say, it's a modest investment, it's not going to be a significant portion of our overall capital portfolio, but it's attractive, it grows rapidly, it's going to create a lot of EBITDA for us in the future, and we're going to continue to attack it aggressively for both -- to support both Hess and third parties as well.
|
intermediate
|
24d1d9d512362d36aca48434901fd3f0
|
I guess my first question has to do with the visibility of your software business. As I understand from your verbiage and your earnings, as well as, what you said today, you seem to be blaming most of your poor performance on the pandemic. But if you look at Vocera, they had a great quarter with the pandemic. And if I go back to your previous earnings reports in the third quarter of last year, you said you were going to give us guidance in February when we release earnings. We expect not only revenue growth but pretty significant operations booking growth as well both from legacy solutions and new Care Connect. And then in the fourth quarter, you told us that, thank you for your support and patience. This is in response to a shareholder's question. I get your frustration. We're behind in delivering the platform. We didn't deliver when we thought we would, on and on and on. So I guess my question is, it seems as though the problem was pre-pandemic and why should shareholders feel any confidence in you being able to perform moving forward? It woudn't.
|
First of all, with respect to Vocera's performance in the second quarter, I'm happy for Vocera and I'm happy for their shareholders. I'm glad that they had a good quarter. One of the things that's happening as a result of this pandemic has been a huge impact. Hospitals have had to, on a very quick basis and on a short-term basis, changed their priorities. And one of the things that's top of list for their priorities right now is PPE, Personal Protective Equipment. And Vocera's badge, as you know, is a hands-free device. You don't have to touch the badge. And so, they've had some great results in the first half of this year with respect to selling those badges. I mean, those -- I look at those badges like I look at our pagers, they're great. They're certainly not the future of technology in terms of driving long-term value. We're shortly in the middle of a pandemic when they can be treated as PPE. That's fantastic. You notice our paging result getting better, not growing like Vocera's devices are growing, but it's great. But we also noticed in the second quarter, Vocera's software revenue way down, down like 20.6% on -- from the second quarter a year ago. And that's no different really than what we're seeing. We're seeing our software revenue down, as well as, a result of the pandemic. We had a number of very large deals ready to roll, ready to book, push on us. So we have a lot of customers come to us, they give their various reasons, but they all point back to the pandemic. So if you don't think the pandemic is real and you don't think it's impacting an industry that was up to 18% of our GDP but largely operated on average of 2% to 4% margin, and their most profitable business or ambulatory or outpatient business and their elective procedures have been put on hold as a result of pandemic, that suggests to me, you don't understand the industry in which we operate. Because the fact of the matter is, it has been significantly impacted. We have the CIO of Ad -- Advocate Aurora on our board of directors. She has given us indications of what are happening inside that organization. We have the former CIO of Harris Health System, the third-largest health system in the nation, as our CIO today and he still got contacts inside that organization. They're hurting. We've looked at multiple surveys and industry pieces about what's going on in their hospitals, they're hurting. So we aren't thinking that we're using the pandemic as an excuse. We're sharing with you the reality of the impact this is causing, not just on Spok but on our customers. Now having said all that, we did book a very large Spok Go sale, our first big platform sale, we're delighted about that. We have more in the pipeline. Our pipeline has continued to grow. We have warmed right up to the altar and they literally came back to us -- a household name, huge healthcare network, literally came back to us and said, we have to put this on hold. Our CEO said to freeze all new projects until we do the budgeting for next year. I mean, this pandemic is a real issue on our results. So glad for Vocera. Happy for them. I think that badge is a great solution for what's going on in the world today. I think that cloud-native platform that we've created, that we've named Spok Go is the great long-term solution for clinical communications in the United States, and we're going to continue to support it and we're going to continue to sell it. We're going to make you a lot of money with it if you remain a shareholder.
|
intermediate
|
6f0fbf021b433913851a240b2eb2ab0c
|
I guess, last quarter, you wrote that the company was worth $10 exclusive of software. Basically, the stock is trading now at $9.60 and according to my numbers -- you know, your numbers, you've spent $218 million on the software business. I would say it's closer to $300 million. Anyway, between $11 and $15 a share and we're getting no value. So I guess, my two questions are, can you explain why we get no value for the greatest thing that's coming? And number two, if you had to grade yourself since the purchase of Amcom, how would you grade yourself on the effectiveness of what you've done there?
|
Well, first of all, I don't agree with the numbers you threw out there, so I'll have to see if you could send me backup or something because both of us are sitting here shaking our heads, saying we never -- don't agree with that. Hey, Brad, we're not going to get credit for Spok Go until shareholders can see a lot of sales of Spok Go. And when they start seeing a lot of sales of Spok Go, I believe the stock is going to go up. And I believe it's going to be a great long-term solution for our customers, a great long-term solution for our employees, and it's going to improve clinical communications and the quality of life of these caregivers. And that's what we're working for. We want to make you guys money, but we also have a passion about what we do and we're going to be successful doing it. You don't have to believe that, but obviously, you have vision because you've held on to your stock, so you probably feel it's coming. Otherwise, you would sell, right? So thank you for that support and thank you for that endorsement.
|
intermediate
|
3f9095150cbefa6956275a86001bdcb7
|
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the Spok Go win. Can you give us a little bit more color as it relates to the profile of that customer, kind of the scale and scope of that engagement, and how you're pricing it, which might then give us a little bit more visibility on to kind of the opportunity that's there for other customers? Thanks.
|
No. We're going to do that, like I said, in my opening comments, Ryan, when we report third-quarter results in late October.
|
fully_evasive
|
5d9a4ab0c1cb396defe10c4ae5b5fa28
|
OK. Do you have any more color that you'd like to or could provide as it relates to the total opportunity set for the company in general, or how you're intending to price Spok Go more generally and more broadly?
|
Yeah. We have a pipeline that we review on a regular basis and it continues to grow. I'm not going to give the specifics of that pipeline in terms of how many deals, what the average deal size, or what the total is, but it has grown consist -- considerably in this quarter. And we expect that'll continue to grow and that we'll continue to book sales out of that pipeline. Also, I think the potential that we have to sell Spok Go is only going to increase as a result of this pandemic, number one, because hospitals are going to realize how important timely clinical communication is. One of the things that our platform does and it does it very, very well, is it delivers critical test results when and where it matters most. And as you can imagine, with COVID-19, you know, and with all the delays in people getting results, the quicker you can get information into the hands of people, the more effective you can be fighting as pandemic. So we think sales is only going to increase. That functionality that we've built into the platform will be a big selling point. And then, we think when we deliver R3 at the end of the year -- by the end of the year, that pipeline opportunity will expand yet again because that's the release where we actually have then the full functionality with respect to our own contact center integration. And so, we'll have a lot more customers in our existing customer base that we can go to. We have 2,200 customers at our hospitals right now and that's a huge opportunity set for us to go back to. The other nice thing about Spok Go in terms of future opportunity, Ryan, as you know, most of our customers, historically, if you run it against the definitive database and look at our customers, the overwhelming majority have been large customers over the years. They've been 600-beds-plus hospitals. And the reason for that is because when we sold premise-based software, it requires aisle servers, as Mike mentioned earlier, it requires a lot of professional services and those people that are expensive per hour. And so, that has been limiting in terms of how broadly we can distribute and sell our products because the medium-size hospitals and some of the smaller hospitals just didn't have the budgets to be able to do that. Now with Spok Go, it's a cloud SaaS -- a SaaS-based model, it's something that they pay for over time, and so, this is an opportunity for us to also sell into the medium and smaller-sized customers in the future. So this one's going to be a winner. And yeah, it's going to take time. And yeah, it's unfortunate when -- when the timing of when this pandemic hit, right, we delivered this thing to the market. But I believe in it, Ryan, and you and I know we had our differences on a lot of things, but I truly sincerely hope you, Brad, all of our shareholders are successful as a result of this because I'm telling you, I believe in it.
|
intermediate
|
6b1b0b4555b52bdd5e647aa8af4d1543
|
How should we think about the size of 3-nanometer? Given the big capex plan that you are also outlining, should we think that 3-nanometer, once it ramps up fully, would be substantially bigger than 7-nanometer in terms of peak revenues?
|
Well, Gokul, let me answer your question by saying that we do expect the 3-nanometer will be widely used in HPC-related applications in addition to the smartphones. So, with this kind of engagement with our customer, we do expect our revenue will be bigger, certainly. There's no doubt about it.
|
intermediate
|
2737614dc2bd5afce99460106f62628c
|
Could you talk a little bit about CPU -- x86 CPU, obviously, which is something on everybody's mind. Could you talk a little bit about how do you think it would be exposed to this market as well as we go into the 3-nanometer era?
|
Gokul, we don't specifically name one of our HPC's applications, such as CPU to say that what is the growth rate. But let me tell you that, CPU, networking and AI accelerator will be the main growth area in the HPC applications.
|
fully_evasive
|
9d3f357eb6784d81d0867f40aa30983b
|
Should we say -- should we think that the x86 market share continues to move up a lot as we get into 3-nanometer?
|
Again, we don't specifically comment on very specific area. We work with our customer continuously and to supply the very good technology to support their business.
|
fully_evasive
|
65b38fc04b5aa0fddfcaf9c9e5b6c3eb
|
Do we expect a pickup in the automotive vertical? And then, also in looking at the mature nodes, will auto benefit our mature nodes? And then ADAS and other trends in automotive, how do we see?
|
Well, let me say that, now we see the automotive industry need a lot of semiconductor component, and that's including the leading-edge technology for the ADAS system and also some of the mature technology for a lot of applications like sensor, like power management IC. We do see right now a little bit shortage on the automotive, the mature technology supply and we are working with customer to mitigate to show this impact.
|
intermediate
|
9dc0ff2b0fa95f90336ce032541f7b95
|
Given the tightness, will we consider to add capacity for the mature nodes?
|
We always work with our customer to plan [Phonetic] our technologies, capacity, all those kind of thing. For mature node, we used to convert some of the large capacity into specialties. Right now, the trend stays the same.
|
intermediate
|
75d947c5123f588e7a8147bc88698b4e
|
The gross margins you've improved 4 points year-over-year. Part of that utilization, but depreciation also was up 45% NT dollar to get you 6 points. So, could you discuss if you've had a breakthrough on the cost reduction side? And if -- now, I think last quarter you said about 50%. But given what you've seen on cost reduction and coming off 54%, if you could have better confidence on margin, could continue to do better?
|
Randy, this is Wendell. You just mentioned that our depreciation increased 45% year-over-year. I think the number should be 15% year-over-year. Now, in terms of gross margin in the long-term, we believe 50% gross margin is reasonable and achievable. There are six factors affecting our profitabilities: the ramp of leading-edge technology; price; cost; mix; utilization and foreign exchange rate. Take foreign exchange rate, for example, in 2020, the average dollar against NT rate was TWD29.43. It is now trading between TWD27.90 to TWD28. That is already a 5% appreciation of NT. So, every 1% of appreciation of NT will affect our gross margin by a 40 basis point. The other thing is the -- in the fourth quarter of last year, as we mentioned, the utilization rate was very high, extremely high, and that's -- the abnormal level of high utilization rate cannot sustain. Therefore, in this quarter, we believe the utilization rate will come down a little bit, albeit is still at a very high level. Now, every point of utilization rate change will impact the gross margin by 40 basis point. A third example will be the ramp in our leading-edge technologies. We mentioned last time that we expect N5 ramp in 2021 to affect our margins by 2 percentage point to 3 percentage point. And we still think that will be the case. So, if you take all of those into considerations, we believe 50% gross margin is reasonable and achievable in the long-term.
|
intermediate
|
7ac1e179a8cd2f71c85dc2aa8559c612
|
Was it up 15 days? Historically, you draw down within the fourth quarter, but maybe the trend-wise inventory was rising into early in the year.
|
Right. And that's partially because some -- as -- we have a very high utilization in the fourth quarter, but some of the wafers will be shipped in the first quarter as opposed to shipped in the fourth quarter.
|
intermediate
|
4261c5ff4a5f98b32dd1717ac20b75e5
|
Your observation that in the past two quarters our gross margin has come in at the high-end or slightly above the high-end of our guidance. Revenue at the high-end and the currency appreciation is there. So, Sebastian is -- question is, first, is the first quarter gross margin guidance too conservative? And what about the outlook for our longer-term structural profitability? Does it need to be revised up?
|
Okay. Sebastian, if we compare fourth quarter to first quarter, 54% in the fourth quarter and the mid-term of our guidance for first quarter is 51.5%. The 2.5 percentage point difference, actually mainly come from the utilization, as well as the unfavorable foreign exchange rates. So, at this moment, we are still sticking to this guidance, although obviously, we will work hard to continue to improve the gross margins. As for the long-term gross margin, as I just reported earlier that we are maintaining the 50% gross margin to be reasonable, achievable based on the elements -- the six factors that I just talked about. Each of those factors will affect our profitability in long-term.
|
direct
|
4e5831ad7a15006f87589cbda3a0a7a2
|
Apparently that -- at least that's a significant upside surprise to me and I think also to the consensus estimate. So, the last time I think when the Company raised the capex from $10 billion to $12 billion level to the -- like a $15 billion to $17 billion level, then that resulted in a 30% revenue growth in 2020. And then -- so my question is that, I think the capex we invest for the future growth, so whether or not this -- another step-up with the capex to like -- to $25 billion to $30 billion this year's, will represent an acceleration of the growth in 2022 or 2023?
|
Okay. Sebastian, it's too early to talk about -- specifically about 2022. But as C.C. mentioned, in the next five years our target CAGR is between 10% to 15%. So that's already higher than the original target of 5% to 10% CAGR that we used to have before the last conference call. And that's also because of the higher capital investment that we are ready to make to capture the higher growth opportunities underpin that by the multi-year megatrends in the industry. Well, let me add something. This is C.C. Wei. This 10% to 15% CAGR is based on a very high number of 2020. So, we still forecast a 10% to 15% CAGR. That will tell you that how much of capex we need to invest.
|
intermediate
|
e9d6f75a2b38246d254fdcfaef9993f9
|
My first question is, if your customer has its own design rule nodes with different metal and poly pitch spec from TSMCs one. Can this customer use a in-house manufacturing in TSMC foundry based on the same design or it needs to redesign the chip-based on TSMC 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer design rule?
|
Andrew, we always work closely with our customer to support their design into TSMC's process technologies. So, we can manufacture inside TSMC.
|
intermediate
|
29535881739416d0a6cedcd980b71b3a
|
Since our 3-nanometer, 4-nanometer nodes work you're ramping out next year. What about second half this year? Will we have something like 5-nanometer plus or revision in 5-nanometer process node for second half this year?
|
Andrew, we always continue to improve the technologies. Last year, we introduced our 5-nanometer to the market. This year, we continue to improve it and next year we will improve further. So we never stop.
|
intermediate
|
7bee44192d983e0e652b90da2654e991
|
Does your $25 billion to $28 billion capex guide include investment for infrastructure in US?
|
Yes, it does. The US fab starts construction this year.
|
direct
|
2f6d60407c0ac7149c67c158eba9d8c7
|
With our increase in capex guidance -- that we guided for in 2021 versus 2020 being an increase, does that also mean an increase in the capex we spend on EUV?
|
No, we do not disclose that details.
|
fully_evasive
|
310d846fa3c3f8d11336147b9f6b0302
|
C.C., you mentioned that how capital intensity is going to be high all the way through 3-nanometer, but you also said long-term capital intensity should be in the mid-30s. So I'm just trying to square that by -- what do you mean by long-term? Because it looks like if the 3-nanometer is still going to be high in the next few years, capital intensity might be higher than mid-30s. So at what point should we expect it to get to mid-30s?
|
We mean long-term meaning three to five years. I think 2010 to 2014 can be an example. During that period of time, the capital intensity rose from 38% to 50%, maintaining at high-40s for a couple of years and came down afterwards. Something like that should be a reference.
|
direct
|
c91ef837b533180fcf74714e8062caf8
|
Your first question is in terms of the capex. He wants to know that, are we -- with capex, are we having to spend capex earlier now and is this because of EUV that we need to spend more capex earlier?
|
Well, let me answer the question. The answer is yes, because of there is a long lead time for the EUV tools. The tools are very complicated and the supply chain for the EUV takes long time to prepare for it. And as a result, TSMC also had to plan in advance. That's longer than the normal tools we used to have.
|
direct
|
fe3cff51704a163f0abd46549e779124
|
So, even with the higher growth in depreciation, Gokul is asking, are we still comfortable with the 50% gross margin?
|
Yeah. 50% gross margin as a long-term target we think it's reasonable and achievable.
|
direct
|
e5a59ceb2f8b84fe2494d90ac82204cc
|
So, Randy is asking in the US, in Arizona, we target 20,000. Do we -- will we continue to build it out into a mega fab-type of site? And he also wants to know in China, and I guess, you're referring to Nanjing, do we have plans to further expand the capacity in Nanjing?
|
Yeah. This is Mark. Let me take your question. Yeah. We recently acquired a big piece of land in Phoenix, 1,100 acres. Definitely that was the long-term plan to have a mega-scale production sites. But currently our plan is only work on the Phase I production -- I'm talking 2024 with 20,000 wafer per month. And we'll -- going forward we will see, according to the market condition and the cost economics provided by the government support to mend the cost differences to decide the next steps. On China, yes, we do have plan to continue expand in China. But, of course, the business in China after leading-edge will -- does have a reset, but we do expect the demand in China will continue and we will gradually, accordingly, increase our capacity in Nanjing.
|
direct
|
5c2978e80effcb1dc9d8d6418107268f
|
Randy is asking about 2021 growth -- first growth outlook by platform and then growth outlook by the back-end, and then, between the back-end InFO, CoWoS by segment.
|
Okay. Randy, for 2021 by platform, we think HPC and automotive growth will be higher than the corporate average growth. Smartphone and IoT will be similar to the corporate average growth in US dollar terms. In terms of our back-end business, we expect it to grow slightly higher than the corporate in 2021. We do not disclose details within the back-end business.
|
intermediate
|
0078e0b2aa038a1ad23b0792094b07e5
|
I think Mark said that the Company has noted its 5-nanometer demand also stronger than you thought three months ago. So, any [Phonetic] value if you can give us more details about which applications are you seeing as stronger-than-expected demand?
|
High-performance computing. Oh, let me just add a little bit color on this. High-performance computing as Wendell just said will be the major growth driver of our business. And this field is currently under exciting changes. The high-performance computing's architectures, as you know, from different customers, everybody is striving to get the best performance with different architectures. So many, many -- many more players is getting into this field. So, we see a stronger innovation is coming our way on N3, as well as on N5. Yeah. It's not on cryptocurrency, Sebastian. We don't count on that, but we support that. Yeah.
|
direct
|
685b973c132f1e43a81dbceb9552de54
|
Sebastian, your question is then in looking at the capex, looking at our revenue guidance, the capital intensity this year been about -- around 50%, then the free cash flow growth may slow this year. So, what is the outlook for the dividend? Do we still use 70% of free cash flow as the cash dividend formula?
|
Right. Sebastian, our dividend policy has two parts, 70% of free cash flow, but not to be lower than the previous periods. So we remain committed to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend. During the periods of higher investment, the focus will be more on sustainable. And as we harvest the growth, the focus will be on steadily increasing.
|
intermediate
|
e31537e4c56a92fdff9647978adc9cd4
|
So, given that you're paying the -- investors getting the dividend in this quarter and -- which is that earnings you made like three quarters earlier, so if we do the calculation simulation, which means that in the next 24 months the investor will probably still getting the TWD2.5 per quarter. Is that a fair calculation assumption?
|
It's at least, at least.
|
intermediate
|
6007eadb3cf9d79b88deaa07f33e37ca
|
As you weigh a potential partial IPO of U.S. MI versus a full sale of the company, can you discuss what some of the key considerations would be in terms of making that decision?
|
Well, Ryan, I think the baseline is whichever provides the best long-term shareholder value. And that's based obviously on the price on a full sale versus what we think the execution is on the IPO. One of the -- the core plan is the -- a partial IPO that preserves the ability for a tax-free spin-off of U.S. MI shares to general shareholders in the future. So that's an important criteria that we are considering the partial IPO versus the full sale.
|
direct
|
bf9e5a240863ba0db412079db34f9c0f
|
Got it. And then I guess can you help us think about any -- I guess if you did do a full sale, how to think about the tax consequences that might emerge from that, as you separate MI from the rest of the company?
|
Ryan, I think the main thing is you lose some tax consolidation. There wouldn't be, I think, a taxable gain. But Dan, do you want to cover the implications of Ryan's question?
Sure. In the case of the full sale, there wouldn't be meaningful tax considerations for us. We've got a fairly high basis in U.S. MI. The real issue is going to be making sure that going forward, we're comfortable with what to do with the proceeds of the sale and the tax position that we'd be in sort of post sale. But the tax -- a full sale of U.S. MI is relatively straightforward from tax perspective.
|
direct
|
2fcf798dc7c770bdbc5559515323a470
|
All right. And then just last one. I guess what level of confidence do you have that if you do sell U.S. MI, that 100% of the proceeds will be available to the holding company versus regulators through the Form A process requiring some amount to be contributed to GLIC?
|
So Ryan, I mean this has come up a lot, and it's a difficult question to answer. There is no law, statutory law authority that gives regulators -- so our principal regulators are Delaware for GLIC, New York, obviously, for the New York subsidiary, and Virginia for GLAIC, there's no legal authority that gives regulators the legal right to require Genworth or any holding company to contribute capital or the proceeds, in this case, Ryan, to your question from the U.S. MI sale. However, I'm sure there would be challenges from the states, potential litigation. So one of the things that Dan and I and the board have to think about is the ability to ultimately convert whatever proceeds. And the proceeds could be cash, the proceeds could be cash and shares. There's, again, many different alternatives. But clearly, when the cash would be available to shareholders, is a key criteria. And our financial and outside legal advisors are really focused on that.
|
intermediate
|
56e18a75fccf623a0b40ce82a1d81c50
|
I appreciate you taking my question. I think at this point, you've set yourself up pretty well with a clear runway toward addressing the 2021 debt obligations, assuming a successful IPO of U.S. Mortgage Insurance. But I'm curious to hear about your strategy for dealing with some of the obligations, let's say, over 2022 through 2024 with that time frame. You've got the AXA litigation settlement payment, a couple of debt maturities to plan for. And I don't think existing liquidity plus a partial IPO would be sufficient. So any thoughts on how you plan to approach that would be helpful.
|
Well, certainly, I think we're in good shape on the 2021. In terms of the AXA amounts, they're not due until 2022 and there are significant other sources of cash. We do have potential cash flow next year from GMA and from U.S. MI in terms of dividends or other options with either of those. So I think we're feeling reasonably good about our ability to handle all of the obligations through the end of '24. And then the remaining debt was about $900 million, $300 million is due in 2034. And then the balance, about $600 million due in 2066. So we feel we're in pretty good shape.
Dan, I wanted to provide just a little bit of color on some of the things we're looking at.
Yes. Thank you, Tom. So for 2021, we ended the year with $1.1 billion of cash, which is sufficient to pay off both the February, which was paid off this week as well as the September. And the IPO is going to help us rebuild the buffer, but also give us the proceeds to pay off the AXA liabilities in 2022. And what I would say is between dividend cash flows from U.S. MI, and we always have Australia, which we set as a financial asset for some time. And with liquid asset in U.S. MI with public shares, to the extent that we needed to, we could use any potential sell down to take care of liabilities in '23, '24. My guess -- and assuming COVID lessens in the second half of the year and we return to more of a normal economy, the cash flows of U.S. MI, which has been a very strong business for a number of years, would allow us to pay off the '23's and '24's between dividends and cash on hand.
|
direct
|
8bab69162e470c017cfb65d6901c6b1e
|
I appreciate that color. Thanks. If I could squeeze in a second one here. And I recognize your ability to speak to U.S. MI is limited right now. But in your prepared remarks, you had mentioned that the ratings for U.S. MI were very important from a competitive standpoint. I was curious if you could elaborate on that just a bit. It seems like to date, the ratings disadvantage hasn't been a major factor in Genworth's ability to win business. Is that more about concern about like risk transfer pricing or that it could translate to less competitive pricing from Genworth? Any thoughts on that, where your heads are at, would be helpful.
|
Josh, that's a good question. I would say -- and I'll ask Rohit Gupta, and Rohit is president and CEO of U.S. MI. He's been in that role as long as I've been here for eight years. He's done an outstanding job running U.S. MI. And so he's now going to be a speaker going forward. So I'll let him give you a little bit of a sense on this, the competitive landscape, U.S. MI versus competitors. But we think we've been very successful, Rohit and team, very successful in maintaining reasonable market share. When you have six MI competitors, you'd say the average market share should be around 16%. And I think we've been able to be in that range. However, there's no question that our ratings are lower than the other MIs. And while it hasn't impacted us so far, we think over the long run, our goal is to get our ratings in line with our competitors because we feel then we'd be able to compete on a better basis. But Rohit, you're in the market every day, dealing with this. So if you want to give some comments to Joshua, I think we appreciate it.
Sure, Tom. Thank you. Good morning, Joshua. So I would just add to a few things to Tom's comments, and I completely agree with Tom's statement that we have been able to navigate very successfully in the market, given our ratings disadvantage over the last few years. I think from a flow mortgage insurance market perspective, there are some customers, there are some segments of the market, primarily depository institutions, so think about large banks, think about small banks, that do care about ratings even with our very strong PMIERs levels. And an improvement in our ratings would actually help us compete better in those segments. And those are the segments where, historically, we have not been very successful. So that would be an upside to our flow mortgage insurance market. And to your comment, in the credit risk transfer market, ratings is an important consideration for participation in those reinsurance transactions. So while we have navigated in that market a little bit, we have not been a big participant in the GSE CRT transaction as well as portfolio loans for banks. So that would be an upside to the business. And lastly, a strategic consideration for us always is, making sure that our ratings also position us as a strong counterparty to the GSE. So making sure that our ratings are competitive, and we are seeing not only from a PMIERs perspective, but also from a ratings perspective as kind of strong counterparty and competitive counterparty in the market are the reasons to shoot for higher ratings.
|
direct
|
41be9acb81c36e7ea17aae3b882f28af
|
Thanks. Good morning. First question, Tom, just for you, regarding the potential Oceanwide transaction. Is there anything you've learned since the January 5 call that -- I guess, just anything incremental on Oceanwide's ability to source funding to complete the transaction? Because I think the market is reacting to your commentary around Oceanwide maybe not being able to source the funding at all. So just any incremental information you've learned since January that might have changed your view around the transaction.
|
Well, look, the Oceanwide merger agreement is still in effect. I said in my comments, I believe Oceanwide continues to work on the financing, particularly the financing outside of China with Hony Capital. I think there are ongoing challenges in the geopolitical landscape that are out of Oceanwide and Genworth's control in terms of the relationship between China and the U.S. I think they still want to do the transaction. We still think that transaction, as we've said for some time, we think is the best option for shareholders if it could be achieved. But just given where we are, and time has passed since the end of the year, I have regular conversations all the time with Oceanwide. So we're still working with them to help in any way we can on the financing. But I think we are where we are. And based on the conversations that I've had with the Chairman and with his senior team, it does appear that it would be difficult for them to raise the financing in the near term, if at all. But we're still open to that. And I think they still are very focused on trying to get the financing in place. So those are the comments I'd make, Ryan.
|
intermediate
|
8f7c61f96c52ea4e923ccb9b8701d2bd
|
OK. And anything you can comment on just regarding the potential Long-Term Care joint venture with Oceanwide in China, and maybe how you would capitalize your portion of that potential joint venture?
|
That's a great question. And I would say, and I think we've been consistent over the four years, that a key driver for why Oceanwide was and is willing to pay 543 is because of the huge potential in China. There are 250 million Chinese today, 60 and older. That will double to 500 million by 2050. And I think the government is encouraging outside parties, including Genworth, to come in and innovate in the market. There really isn't a strong, well-developed competitive Long-Term Care Insurance market in China or a health insurance market in China. And so we have been working with Oceanwide beyond the transaction on the strategy in China. And we have outside firms, consulting firms and others advising on that. So I think the opportunities in China LTC are very substantial. There isn't a lot of -- no one in China that I know of has 40 years of experience in the market. So I do think that in a joint venture, we would bring less capital. We'd bring some perhaps, but less capital and -- but our expertise and experience. So my guess is we would end up probably not being a majority owner of that joint venture because we would not put as much capital in as others. There's a lot of interested parties, other partners beyond China Oceanwide that would be interested in working with Oceanwide and the Genworth. So I think it's a significant opportunity. And I would say, while we -- we'll see if Oceanwide can complete their financing. And if they can, we'd move forward with the transaction. But if not, I think there's a reasonable chance, given the relationship we've developed over the last four years, the work we've done on analyzing the market and the entry into the market, that's a significant opportunity. And if we can't do the full transaction, I think we're very open to that as is Oceanwide.
|
intermediate
|
06bf1ed81f6187ed37d4e8e48b17ac79
|
OK. Got it. Thank you. Last one for me. The $50 million annualized cost savings. Do you have an idea or can you tell us the split between holding company expense reductions and subsidiary expense reductions?
|
There was a split. I'll ask Dan to give you a little bit more detail on that. Dan?
Sorry. I could not hear the question. Could you repeat?
The question, Dan, was $50 million of expense reductions in January. What was subsidiary operating company's expense reductions versus the corporate overhead? think that was the question.
I don't have a breakout. What I would say is that there was a significant amount of reduction inside the Life companies, as a result of some of the changes to realign with our expectation going forward for limited sales. And there was a sort of, I would say, a widespread reduction across corporate generally. Those numbers will be numbers that we'll put forth in the first quarter.
Yes. And the last thing I would say is we did, I think we have specific reductions that we did in January that resulted in our estimate of cost savings of $50 million. But we'll continue to look at that. As I said in my remarks, we're going to need to continue to rightsize the organization as we go forward. Obviously, it will depend on which option we would do for U.S. MI. But our goal would be to continue to align our expense base, including overhead with the revenues that the business has generated.
|
fully_evasive
|
203c4f791989e564b54f12d820b096de
|
Thanks. Good morning. A couple of MI questions for you. I appreciate you sharing the singles impact on the premium. Could you further elaborate and share the quarter costs for your XOLs as well as the quarter costs for ILNs?
|
I'll let Rohit answer those. Good questions, Geoff -- Geoffrey.
Sure, Tom. Thanks, Geoff. So I think from a reinsurance perspective, we have not outlined the cost in our disclosures, but I would generally articulate the cost being back at pre-COVID levels. And that is for the 2021 excess of loss reinsurance that Dan mentioned in his remarks. And then from an Ireland perspective, I would say the same thing that the October island that we basically executed after quarter close third quarter, the cost on that island was same as pre-COVID levels. And as we look at the month of February and the transactions we have seen in the market, we continue to see the Ireland market very robust and the cost being very competitive and attractive for us.
|
intermediate
|
9db97cf231f4adee253bdbf175fbf059
|
OK. And then with respect to your comment on the reserve strengthening, I understand that the average is now up to 7%. Are you saying also that you're 7% in the fourth quarter? Or was it a higher number than 7% that brought up the average as well as the strengthening charge?
|
Yes. So Geoff, what I would say is we are in an unprecedented environment here when we just think about our overall roll rates and our reserve factors. The forbearance programs we have today are very different than the forbearance programs, we used to have pre-COVID. You are familiar with the numbers, less than 5% of our delinquent base used to be in forbearance programs. And as Dan mentioned, right now, 71% of our delinquency at the end of the year are in forbearance programs. Essentially, what we did was, as we were navigating through the year, and we looked at cure rates coming from forbearance delinquencies. We did not see those cure rates navigating to the level that we would have expected based on the choice of roll rates we made earlier in the year. So based on that experience, we decided to increase primarily our forbearance roll rates, and the cumulative number came to 7% for all COVID delinquencies, forbearance and nonforbearance combined at the end of fourth quarter.
|
direct
|
50b74543a4e9ef88ba291e0e328b4644
|
Right. I'm asking, I guess, specifically, what was the assumption for Q4, though? What's kind of your run rate exiting the year? Are you at a 7% assumption, as we go into the beginning of the year? Or is it a higher number that helped bring up the overall average for the last nine months?
|
Yes. So we are at 7%, as we end the fourth quarter for COVID delinquencies. And for non-COVID delinquencies, that number would be higher because non-COVID delinquencies were non forbearance. And 7% for news as well.
|
direct
|
3cda86278f72c08ec68fc608609cb209
|
I'm hoping that you can provide some details on where you think hospital systems are in terms of preparedness for the new RO-APM reimbursement model.
|
I think, quite frankly, it varies across the board. I think that there are some institutions that have been more rapid in embracing hypo and ultra hyperfractionation. They're larger utilizers from a product technology and mix case mix standpoint of SBRT in general. I think they by nature or by kind of, their more proactive approach are probably better prepared in the current environment for what's coming in January of 2022. I think there are others that are probably not as prepared. And as you might imagine, those represent really ideal targets for us to be telling our story about why the Accuray product lineup is really, really uniquely positioned to be able to assist in this transition to the RO-APM.
|
intermediate
|
158397e33a9f58b2a755187e1061172c
|
And an additional question is with the current labor market has Accuray been impacted with any worker shortages at all?
|
No, not from an operational standpoint. Again, the headwinds that people see now related to labor challenges and supply chain, etc. We're cognizant of that. We have not really had significant problems in those areas. We continue to execute well, both Suzanne and I have terrific faith in our operations team. And so no, we really haven't seen anything, Mike that that gives us pause or concern at this point.
|
direct
|
cd1f4251bd228f1a6b4710a51b7e4a47
|
Okay. That's helpful. And then last question for me is, are you seeing any disruptions due to the supply chain? And do you have any plans on how do you combat these disruptions if there are any?
|
Again, I mean, there's really no company that you can see or look at today that isn't feeling some impact of these macro level kind of, trends. But again, we are working diligently. Our ops team is working diligently. Our sourcing team is working diligently to make sure that we can continue to supply, continue to install equipment and be ready to install equipment and recognize revenue, and we're really proud and excited about the work that they're doing in keeping pace with these kind of, the macro level headwinds that people are seeing.
|
intermediate
|
8b533d7add57728f9569e6d56e1031d7
|
Hi. Good afternoon. Congratulations on a strong start to fiscal '22. Just two questions, follow-up from the ASTRO Investor Day. The first is -- it's great to hear about the progress and the plans in your journey toward a true online adaptive solution, and you talked about two parallel paths of development and internal one with your precision arc planning system and also the collaboration with RaySearch. And just wondering, as we think about this development path over the next 12 to 18 months, how should we be thinking about updates to the investment community on the progress there. And are there any key milestones we should have on our radar?
|
Yes. I don't know that there are any key milestones that you need to have on your radar, but I mean, it is our goal, especially based on the very positive feedback of what we did show to customers at the ASTRO, that we're on the right track. We are pursuing, again, a solution for our customers that have RaySearch treatment planning as well as customers that have our precision treatment planning. We think that the basis of our advantage will be the use of ClearRT and Synchrony as inputs into the online adaptive, and that's something that's unique to the industry. And also, we got great feedback in terms of what within the market is a vulnerability of current offerings. And so our goal is to improve upon what is available to the market at this time. So I would say, no, our overall goal is, again, to have something at ASTRO next year.
|
intermediate
|
d686d3a9e395c0a29a3dcfd413fe726f
|
Fantastic. And then just one follow-up. As we're all looking to try and value is the China JV and as that opportunity is, and that collaboration is going to be unleashed in 2022. I think one of the underappreciated elements is the Type B system and the opportunity that Accuray has to sell that China manufactured Type B system into other global value segments. You touched on that during the Investor Day, but I was hoping you could build a little bit on that $300 million annual opportunity that you cited. And just where does Accuray stand today in terms of selling into that global value segment with the TomoH or ONRAD systems and our assumption is that it's -- it's de minimis or immaterial impact to your orders and sales. But just wanted to get a sense of the baseline and then potentially how you see this Type B system manufacturing in China driving penetration in that $300 million annual opportunity.
|
No, Josh thanks for the questions. Absolutely the market that we talked about for a value segment product is incremental to what we're participating in now. The $300 million that we talked about at Investor Day were really was the annual opportunity in two locations: India and also Brazil, where we think that both of those segments, there's a larger market opportunity that we just haven't been able to participate in. And so while we are on track with our Type B product for China, we do think that, that same sort of a future set will do very well in other value segment markets. So the $300 million we talked about, really, I think, is tip of the iceberg in terms of emerging market opportunity, but those are two places that we'll focus on.
|
intermediate
|
828bc01764315a48cc826620523fc09b
|
Great. Thanks for the answers. Maybe a follow-up to Josh's questions on neurosurgery specifically. And when we think about that opportunity, just wondering what the investment behind neurosurgery will be just as you referenced at Analyst Day that would be my first question. And then the second question would be on just oral bundle, any details from last night's announcement that were surprised or is everything, sort of, as planned?
|
Anthony, Susan and I are going to divide and conquer. I'll take the second question, which is the RO-APM update. So I think the big takeaway was they did confirm that they are going forward on January 1. That one -- there -- I think there might have been some continued speculation out there, about, given COVID environment, etc, was that going to happen? And the answer is they are going to push the start button come January 1. There were some elements that were also part of the information release that gave them some latitude in certain data collection activities. You'll remember that one of the components of the RO-APM was a quality system, a quality metrics measurement that was going to be self-reported. They have invoked a kind of, this moment in time. Again, I think because of more than anything else, probably the COVID environment and that they're considering that or kind of, defining that as a public health emergency that they've relaxed the requirements for the collection and submission of those quality measures. And so they've given, kind of, this first year of the model, they've given it -- they relaxed the requirements on that piece. The 2% payment fee withhold, again, that was tied to quality measures was also relaxed. So there's been a little bit of a, I'll call it, a reprieve, if you will, on that piece of the fee schedule. Again, those were probably -- I think the last piece of the three was the requirement around the conducting of peer review audit and feedback on treatment plans specifically. They've also made that optional in this first year of the model. So you've got those, kind of, provisions that they've made allowances for, again, given kind of probably most related to the COVID environment, but the program is going to start-up on January 1. We think that that's important for a variety of reasons, and we like how we're positioned, given where our product lineup is and what's going to be -- we think is going to be important to customers from a clinical practice standpoint under this new model. Yes. So Anthony, so yes, what we talked about at Investor Day, again, an incremental market opportunity in neurosurgery. We talked about a total potential market of $600 million. And really, that represents a replacement market opportunity for aging Gamma Knife that we think through 2026, there'll be approximately 180 systems that are going to get to greater than 10 years, and we'll be looking for trade out. The CyberKnife S7 now with what we showed with Brainlab, having a treatment planning and contouring interface that is familiar to neurosurgeons, we believe, will be a competitive advantage. The fact that the CyberKnife treats both brain and spine and Gamma Knife only does brain. And also, we think, an improved patient experience without the use of a head frame will be preferred and will put us in a strong competitive position to be able to penetrate some of these replacement opportunities.
|
intermediate
|
9fed1b2af75511f251a26b9248cdd2c8
|
So I guess, first, I mean, maybe can we just get a quick update with the extended backlogs on any changes in cancellation rates. I believe when we talked last time in the last quarter you guys had noticed any really material changes, but there was expectations for a little bit better capacity coming online this quarter. Has anything changed and how you're servicing customers and keeping them happy with the extended backlog times?
|
It's a great question, Bobby and nothing is materially changed the amount of demand we're getting even though we're producing more furniture every month is keeping the backlog out a lot farther than we'd like and customers are not thrilled with that, but that is the state of the industry. So it's not just the La-Z-Boy problem, it's for everybody and the demand is still high starting off in January, our demand has been surprisingly strong to what we had anticipated. So -- and let me make a comment about all the little hiccups, we've had with parts and people and COVID, whatever you want individually any one of them is not that significant and could be overcome, but when you get them come and ask you for six -- from six or seven different directions, the magnitude of it adds up.
So we -- I forget what the number was, but we could have produced, I don't want to say significantly, but I think the number was around $30 million more of business if we hadn't had the disruptions with parts and homes and freight and things coming in on time and you know, make the corollary, if you want to the car industry now without the chips they can't -- they have the capacity to make a lot of cars, but without these component parts, they have to stall and we ran into that. So we will continue to hire, we will continue to get more capacity, but we don't know what pickup may come at us in the future. And so we're just cautious in what we're projecting going forward.
|
intermediate
|
8be71cbef81e0a88d5bc33223eb66ee5
|
Okay, that's helpful. And good news that the cancellation rates have materially changed. If we look at the 4Q sales guidance versus the prior commentary around it, those elements little bit lower, is that just a function of the challenges in the supply chain just continuing longer than your original expectations? And if so, would you expect, kind of, to make that up that difference up and basically the first quarter, just as you know, the improvements have been shifted out further in the future basically.
|
That's exactly right, Bobby, we will continue to increase raw production capacity. We've been doing it month-to-month here since -- basically since we opened up again back at the beginning of May, and that March will continue on through end of this summer event. But at any given time as Kurt said with a variety of input challenges that we're managing through, it just keeps holding us back from getting to that max number on any given month. That said, the underlying capacity continues to increase.
The only thing I might clarify a bit is the catch-up factor is a challenge, because we are every day set up to max out everything we can possibly make. So if you lose a couple of days, because of I saw -- ice and snow all over the majority of the United States, you don't -- you can't just run an extra Saturday or run an evening shift to make that up in near-term, because those extra shifts were already planned to continue to work against the existing backlog.
|
direct
|
1aede20fdca8e929d19bcc1c8d9a8d83
|
Understood. Okay, that's very helpful. And I guess lastly for me, just two-part question on the written business. So if we look at the trends for the 350-ish network galleries, basically network galleries. Was there just some -- was there some weird ebbs and flows during the quarter, because even on a two-year stack basis it does look like it slowed a good bit, but then reaccelerated in January. Was there just some timing on industry or kind of customers coming in or earning whether or anything like that?
And then the second part of my question is when you look outside your La-Z-Boy distribution, how are the written trends for the non-La-Z-Boy side of your network -- of your distribution network?
|
Yes, I would say similar to what we heard around most of the industry on November and December started to slow. Again, we're at -- an industry that generally grows 2% to 3% or at 18% year-to-date, written same-store sales. But November and December, I think most of our industry saw some slowing still growth, right? But those rate slowed. By the time we got to January, we're back up in the near double-digit kind of numbers across virtually all of the businesses. So we don't track written in the same way on the businesses that we don't sell direct-to-consumer, you know, like we do for our Furniture Galleries, but really we continue to see that growth coming in across all the businesses and that's why you see even with making more furniture each quarter we still had our backlog grow from Q2 to Q3 by like over 25%, so that demand continues to build.
And that is not all Furniture Galleries demand.
Another fact, Bobby to kind of gauge how we're doing, the numbers that we've seen, so we told you today that our same-store sales for calendar '20 were up 6%, and I think the latest industry numbers we've seen was the industry was down 1% for the calendar year. So and remember all those numbers are with sometimes a month or longer, less stores being shutdown. So we're -- I think we gained some share last year and if we don't have it continue supply and COVID problems, I think we have that opportunity again this year.
|
intermediate
|
8d6c35aaa0818362e30f29efca04466c
|
So first, I just wanted to follow-up, as far as the January reacceleration in the same-store sales still encouraging to see. Is this -- would you say this is partly may be attributable to the stimulus checks that went out or do you think there's other factors that play here? And if you could maybe comment on what you saw over President's Day weekend?
|
Well, I can't give you an exact data on what caused the uptick. Was it vaccine starting to be given to people and they felt more comfortable, shopping was it a mild January that kept people out. The stimulus checks probably had some impact, although I don't -- I'm not sure how -- what proportion of our customers will receive the stimulus check. But all those things figure into the momentum. And President's Weekend was heading and a really -- in a strong direction until the snow came on Monday and, kind of, put a damper on Monday, which is the biggest day of the weekend. So that was not helpful. But it did show that in the Friday, Saturday, Sunday, leading up to it, the demand was still strong, the customer was out shopping and we were pleased with what we saw. But the biggest day is Monday and we certainly did achieve last year's numbers.
|
intermediate
|
d6c40377e4e1268fee7b6a24d0b847fc
|
Got it. Okay, thanks for that. I mean, sort of, and controlled the weather for sure. As far as Joybird, I was just wondering if there is any -- you feel there's room for additional synergy improvements, we talked about gross margin improvements, just wondering how we should think about the sustainability of Joybird's profitability improvements?
|
Yes. So I'll take that in two pieces. And certainly, the gross margin improvements, we've been working for a long time on a lot of individual pieces that are really coming together. And our plan is that, that gross margin improvement should stay very sustainable going forward. Of course, obviously subject like any business now, right, to ongoing increases and input costs and ability to price against that. Relative to the true bottom line on operating margin, what we've always said is that we will test what does the return look like on investments in marketing to really grow that business. And our goal on Joybird isn't necessarily to maximize margin right now, but to get a prudent margin and grow that business. And that's why we were so pleased this quarter being able to leverage that gross margin and leverage great returns on our marketing investment to still deliver a profitable quarter, but also deliver a 79% written-sales growth for the quarter, compared to last year. So I think we're figuring out that model.
|
direct
|
b0a3c66323d1cf2e9d35191922bcfc40
|
Got it. Okay, great. And then last question from me here, so as far as the record high cash balance. So what would you say would be the top priorities for usage of that cash going forward here?
|
Certainly. Certainly a healthy chunk of our focus. Well, I'll start by saying, we will continue to be conservative, because this pandemic thing isn't over yet, and that's always been our nature, but no doubt we are building a really significant chest. And with that it provides us an opportunity to look at investments in our business and we're already starting to do that. Recall, beginning of the year, we basically stopped all capital invest and so we knew what was going to happen with the business. So as we turn that valve back on, obviously, we're investing in our new locations and additional capacity both in Mexico and across our production network.
We have turned back on the remodel of our Neosho, our second largest facility that we had temporarily paused there. We are investing in our retail stores at an increased pace both in remodeling to represent the fashion of our brand, but also the technological capabilities to help both our employees, but also the consumer experience when they are in our stores. And technology upgrades for our own company and corporately to increase our efficiencies and capability. So I think you'll continue to see us doing more of that and really leveraging the benefit of the increased sales that we've been able to experience with the pandemic.
Beyond that, then of course, we increased our dividend this quarter, which shows the Board support of this as well. And we did, as you know, turn on our share repurchase back in December didn't get a lot by, because we turned it on in the middle of the quarter, but we're back in the market on share repurchase as well.
|
direct
|
e4afcea50827a97c89de7d977728e2b8
|
Hi, good morning. It's Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. And first of all, Kurt congratulations to you on a tremendous career and your leadership of La-Z-Boy. And Melinda and Bob, congratulations to you both on your promotions. All very well deserved. So wanted to follow-up on the Joybird comments and wondering Kurt, Melinda, if you can give us a little bit more color on how you think about what the right growth rate should be for Joybird going forward? I still think of it as being a young business with a tremendous amount of opportunity? Both in terms of its online opportunity, as well as its opportunity to start getting it sound stores. And how do you think about what the right growth rate is for this business? And what are the plans to add stores as the world starts to get a bit more normal here in the future?
|
So, Brad. I think the -- obviously, one of our interests in Joybird when we bought them was we felt it was a business that could grow faster than our core, and we still believe that. And we don't know in any of the businesses we're in and even Joybird. What is the COVID factor right now for volume? And how long is that going to stay? So that is in these calculations, but I think Joybird has got a great trajectory. I think it's got the -- a new website, it's been up for a few months, the connection to the customer, very pleased with the 79% same-store quarter. And so, you know, we bought the business when it was around $40 million, we'll do in excess, I believe of $100 million this year and it's a profitable business, which was one of our goals.
But as Melinda just said earlier, we're going to balance the fact between reinvesting in the marketing to grow and being sure does have a reasonable return. I may not have the same return of all of our other businesses, but if it has double the growth we would accept that, so we are -- so we think there's a lot of growth to give you a number now would be a guessing on our point, but it will grow faster than the base enterprise. And I think you'll see a great acceleration here in the future.
Yes. Melinda handle that. But I didn't -- I failed to mention, we are going to continue to open stores at Joybird 2, we've got a couple, we're just making a final decision on here in the near-term. So I don't believe they'll ever have a 100 stores at all, but they will have stores in the key markets where there are already tons of online business and so we truly have that on the experience and the stores to-date in most cases have exceeded our expectations. So getting Joybird more stores is part of the growth strategy.
|
intermediate
|
d1f4ec740335b499f6b70ae94054163d
|
That's helpful, Kurt. Thank you. And the next topic I wanted to talk about a bit is what you're seeing on the raw material front. This is a question that comes up a lot with investors about how much risk there is in the economy from inflation. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing from a raw material standpoint? What you're passing through at this point, any more color on the degree of price increases that you're passing through? And how you're thinking about that [Speech Overlap] yes.
|
Sure. So obviously given demand we're seeing pressure on raw material input costs. And honestly all supply chain costs including freight, pretty much across the board back in October, we announced pricing and that of course was only on new written orders. So it's going to be -- we're in fourth quarter before those written orders are starting to become delivered orders and we're starting to see the benefit of that, even though the cost pressures are already there. We are evaluating -- continue to evaluate, if you look, kind of, around the industry, you will see that another round of price increases, starting to show up in a lot of the industry.
And in general, our industry, you will see these be to your point on order of magnitude, you'll see in the -- low to middle single-digits over the last year I think was probably the right, kind of, planning number. And so the good news about our industry is that it has always been pretty resilient to the pricing when there are real input costs to pass through. Freight as I said, is another one that you have to continuously evaluate, but we have been able to generally pass that through in the past. And we're trying to be fair with our customers, it's a little painful when we've got this long backlog to only price on new written orders and not on existing backlog, but we also are striving to be very good partners with our customers in these challenging times. And not essentially pinch them by increasing prices on orders they've already written to their customers. So it is fluid, definitely there is cost headwinds and we continue thus far to be able to experience pretty positive ability to price. There is no doubt at some point that -- might that have some impact on end consumer demand that could be the case. We certainly have not seen that thus far.
|
direct
|
EvasionBench
EvasionBench is a benchmark dataset for detecting evasive answers in earnings call Q&A sessions. The task is to classify how directly corporate management addresses questions from financial analysts.
Dataset Summary
This dataset contains 16,726 question-answer pairs from earnings call transcripts, each labeled with one of three evasion levels. The labels were generated using the Eva-4B model, a fine-tuned classifier specifically trained for financial discourse evasion detection.
Supported Tasks
- Text Classification: Classify the directness of management responses to analyst questions.
Languages
English
Dataset Structure
Data Fields
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
uid |
string | Unique identifier for each sample |
question |
string | Analyst's question during the earnings call |
answer |
string | Management's response to the question |
eva4b_label |
string | Evasion label: direct, intermediate, or fully_evasive |
Label Definitions
| Label | Definition | Description |
|---|---|---|
direct |
The core question is directly and explicitly answered | Clear figures, "Yes/No" stance, or direct explanations |
intermediate |
The response provides related context but sidesteps the specific core | Hedging, providing a range instead of a point, or answering adjacent topics |
fully_evasive |
The question is ignored, explicitly refused, or the response is entirely off-topic | Explicit refusal, total redirection, or irrelevant responses |
Data Statistics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Samples | 16,726 |
| Direct | 8,749 (52.3%) |
| Intermediate | 7,359 (44.0%) |
| Fully Evasive | 618 (3.7%) |
Example
{
"uid": "4addbff893b81f64131fdc712d7a6d9a",
"question": "What is the expected margin for Q4?",
"answer": "We expect it to be 32%.",
"eva4b_label": "direct"
}
Usage
Loading the Dataset
from datasets import load_dataset
dataset = load_dataset("path/to/EvasionBench")
Loading from Parquet
import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_parquet("evasionbench_17k_eva4b_labels_dedup.parquet")
Dataset Creation
Source Data
The question-answer pairs are derived from publicly available earnings call transcripts.
Annotation Process
Labels were generated using Eva-4B, a 4B parameter model fine-tuned specifically for evasion detection in financial discourse. Eva-4B achieves 84.9% Macro-F1 on the EvasionBench evaluation set, outperforming frontier LLMs including Claude Opus 4.5 and Gemini 3 Flash.
Considerations for Using the Data
Social Impact
This dataset can be used to:
- Improve transparency in corporate communications
- Assist financial analysts in identifying evasive responses
- Support research in financial NLP and discourse analysis
Limitations
- Labels are model-generated (Eva-4B) rather than human-annotated
- The dataset reflects the distribution of evasion patterns in the source data
- Performance may vary across different industries or time periods
Citation
If you use this dataset, please cite:
@misc{evasionbench2025,
title={EvasionBench: A Benchmark for Detecting Evasive Answers in Earnings Calls},
author={EvasionBench Team},
year={2025},
url={https://github.com/IIIIQIIII/EvasionBench}
}
License
Apache 2.0
- Downloads last month
- -