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Investment in electricity networks – an important enabler for the clean energy transition – continued to rise in 2016, as it has for the past several years. Investment in the expansion, modernisation and digitalisation of networks and storage amounted to USD $277 billion, 30% of which was in the People's Republic of China (hereafter "China"). As a result, renewables and networks increased their share of power investment to 80%. The combination of low-carbon generation and electricity networks saw their investment share grow by twelve percentage points to 43% from 2014 to 2016, closer to the total for fossil fuel supply investment.
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Even with persistent low energy prices, energy efficiency was the fastest growing element in terms of energy investment in 2016. Global energy efficiency investment rose to USD 231 billion, an increase of 9% on the previous year. Europe remains the largest region for energy efficiency investment though China is catching up rapidly as the fastest growing region accounting for 62% of growth in energy efficiency investment.
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In the transport sector, combined investment in electric vehicles – which can be considered an efficiency technology – and more efficient conventional vehicles increased 5% in 2016 from the previous year. Around one-third of the growth was for electric vehicles, while the remainder was largely attributable to investment in more efficient passenger vehicles in China. Investment in other regions, on average, was broadly flat with lower overall vehicle sales acting to mask an increased share of efficient vehicles.
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China set targets to reach 15% of total primary energy demand from non-fossil fuels by 2020 and reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 18% below 2015 levels. The country also aims to reduce NOX and PM2.5 emissions by 15% by 2020, with a corporate average fuel consumption limit for new cars of 5 litres/100 km in 2020.
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Primary energy demand growth in the New Policies Scenario is substantially lower than in past years: global energy demand experienced average annual growth of 2% in the period 2000-2016 while this drops to less than 1% average annual in the period 2016-2050 in the New Policies Scenario. Energy efficiency plays a strong part even in this scenario, supported by the transition towards less energy-intensive forms of economic activity (such as services and light industry) in emerging economies (most notably China), and slower economic and population growth.
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By 2050 more than 250 GW of coal-fired generation capacity is fitted with carbon capture and storage CCS though it is concentrated in a small number of countries with China accounting for more than 60% of global CCS capacity.
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A decline in energy intensity of nearly 3% per year as projected in the 66% 2 °C Scenario would help to reduce final energy demand by 3750 Mtoe more than the People's Republic of China and the European Union's combined energy demand today in 2050 relative to the New Policies Scenario. Transport would account for around 40% of the savings industry for almost 30% and the buildings sector for about one-quarter.
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China would by some distance be the largest contributor to the additional investment needs in the 66% 2 °C Scenario, more than the United States and the European Union combined. However, the share of China in global energy efficiency investment in industry would be lower in the 66% 2 °C Scenario (one-quarter of the total) than in the New Policies Scenario (one-third), as other emerging and transition economies have more incremental efforts to realise.
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They are becoming more widespread in policy, addressed in the European Union's EcoDesign Directive and recent agreement on the Circular Economy Package, Japan's Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society, and China's 13th Five-Year Plan.
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China is responsible for the majority of global electricity demand in industrial motor-driven systems - 42% in 2014 - and will continue to be responsible for the majority of future electricity demand though there is strong growth in India and other emerging economies.
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More than 20,000 ISO 50001 certificates for industries were in place in 2016, 40% of which were in Germany. ISO 50001 has become a central focus of energy management programmes in industry in many countries, including Germany, Indonesia, Korea and the United States. So far in China, the adoption of ISO 50001 has been limited as the major industrial energy efficiency policy, where the Top 10,000 Programme, incorporates an equivalent Chinese energy management standard (GB/T 23331).
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Several countries including Canada, China, Germany and Mexico are seeking to increase the adoption of EMS by establishing energy efficiency learning networks.
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The Chinese Top 10,000 Programme, which built on the previous Top 1,000 Programme, is mandatory for the largest 10,000 energy-using enterprises in China.
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As an alternative, or a complement, to fuel efficiency standards, there is a role for ZEV mandates pioneered in California for the light-duty vehicle market and now used for medium-duty vehicles, their use has spread to several other US states, along with some parts of Canada and China.
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The value of the global ESCO market grew to nearly USD 27 billion in 2016, with the most activity in China, where government incentives have spurred market growth, and in the United States, where ESCOs are often part of utilities.
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Today around half of Iraq's oil production is operated by IOCs, down from around 65% in 2012. The IOCs have tended to be replaced by national oil companies from China and Russia that operate internationally or by Iraqi national oil companies, the largest of which is the Basra Oil Company (BOC).
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We have revised some assumptions and data used in the computation of Chinese demand, resulting in small downward revisions for 2016 (20 kb/d) and 2017 (45 kb/d). In general, demand was revised down in the first quarter of the year and slightly up in the subsequent quarters.
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PetroChina, the largest producer said its domestic crude oil output fell by 1.8% in 1Q18 compared with a year earlier. The company expects growth from overseas acquisitions and natural gas production to offset declines in its domestic crude oil output this year.
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Independent refiners account for three quarters of total capacity there, and the strong rate of growth probably reflects better coverage of independent refining activity by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In fact, a survey of independent refiners by JLC, a Chinese data provider, shows a lower crude run rate for Shandong in March than NBS data.
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In the BLUE Map scenario, the share of units providing space and water heating will rise to one-quarter of the total by 2050. In absolute terms, non-OECD countries drive the growth in the BLUE Map scenario. However, the greatest growth in heat pump use for space heating occurs in the OECD, Former Soviet Union and China.
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The SFOE set the rules and provided financial incentives while the association had the responsibility of co-ordinating national and international R&D collaboration, demonstration, statistics, market analyses, education and the promotion of the quality label for heat pumps. Today, heat pumps have a significant market share for retrofits and new buildings in Switzerland. These types of examples have inspired similar efforts in China (see Box 2).
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In response to the country's initiative, several ministries, commissions and local authorities have formulated corresponding policies for energy conservation and energy efficiency in buildings. Many cities have also provided subsidies to encourage the application of ground-source heat pump systems. During the last three years, the central government of China has promulgated a series of policies and regulations about energy conservation and environmental protection so that local governments and the nation will pay more attention to energy efficiency and renewable energy.
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Russia is the world's fourth largest generator of electricity, after the United States, China and Japan. In 2003, it produced 916 TWh, an 11% increase over 1998. Thermal generation accounts for 66% of total production, and two-thirds of that amount comes from natural gas. The balance is hydro-electric (17%) and nuclear power (16%). Nuclear-based generation increased by 42% from 1998 to 2003 and the load factor at nuclear power plants rose from about 55% in 1998 to 76% in 2003.
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Since 2012, more than 100 million people per year have gained electricity access, an acceleration from the rate of 62 million people per year seen between 2000 and 2012. Developing countries in Asia, led by India, have made significant progress, and the electrification rate in the region reached 89% in 2016, up from 67% in 2000. China reached full electrification in 2015, while 100 million people in Indonesia and 90 million in Bangladesh gained access since 2000.
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China and India in particular have seen tremendous progress: China achieved universal electricity access in 2015, and half a billion people gained access to electricity in India since 2,000 (Spotlight). In Bangladesh, the electricity access rate has increased by 15 percentage points over the last five years, due to a push for off-grid solar home systems and the provision of partial subsidies and loans to make these systems affordable.
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Experience from countries that have reached universal access indicates that the last 10-15% of the un-electrified population is the slowest and most costly to connect. It took countries such as China and Thailand 20 years to improve electrification rates from 30-40% to 85-90%, and another 20 years to reach universal access.
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In China, over 300 million people are estimated to rely on biomass for cooking, representing more than one-fifth of the population, although there are some uncertainties around this number. A further 150 million people are estimated to rely on coal for cooking and heating. While coal stoves are typically more efficient than biomass ones, coal is also associated with high levels of household air pollution. Overall biomass use in China's residential sector has been declining by around 6% per year since 20to, while natural gas, LPG and electricity demand have all been increasing by around 10% per year.
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In addition to fuel switching policy efforts in China have targeted the provision of improved biomass cookstoves the China National Improved Stove Programme distributed around 130 million improved stoves between 1982 and 1992 and more than two-thirds were found to still be in use in 1993.
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Go local: Undertake and build on information from a thorough evaluation of local needs and social characteristics to tailor stove and fuel type to the locality. Engage local communities and those that use the stoves to select stoves according to their preference and endorse the alternatives to be promoted. Empower local communities to self-build, self-manage and self-maintain cookstoves by supporting training, research and development and capacity building at a local level. This was a key element of success for the Chinese National Improved Stove Programme in the 1980s and 1990s.
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Electricity is used for cooking in only a few developing countries, notably South Africa (where more than 80% of the population cooks with electricity) and China (where the share is 12% [160 million people] and growing rapidly).
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Significant reductions in the population without access to clean fuels and stoves for cooking come from countries with dedicated policy initiatives, in particular China, India and Indonesia. Today, China and India account for over 40% of the global population relying on biomass for cooking, but aggressive action to provide access to clean cooking in these two countries changes the global outlook.
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China and Indonesia together account for around 80% of the population in developing Asia who gain access to clean cooking facilities.
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People in some cities, especially in China, also gain access with natural gas and electricity as infrastructure is built.
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China's National Improved Stove Programme supported training research and development and capacity building at local levels to ensure that communities could build manage and maintain cookstoves Such support also increases the likelihood that the community will take ownership and maintain the new cooking devices and fuels Delivering universal access to clean cooking will also require a big push to involve and empower women as they are usually the main decision-makers in matters related to household cooking
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China refers to the People's Republic of China, including Hong Kong. Developed countries: Australia, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, United States, United Kingdom and Uzbekistan.
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Developing Asia: Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Chinese Taipei, India, Indonesia, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Viet Nam and other Asian countries and territories.
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Coal is a strategic resource for Indonesia. It is a major exporter of coal to India, the People's Republic of China (hereafter, “China”), Japan, Malaysia and the Philippines.
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The report initially provides an overview of the CETP's objectives, then presents highlights of activities and achievements for each priority country (Brazil, the People's Republic of China. India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa), each
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Never has it been more important to collaborate with key emerging economies. In its three years of existence, the CETP has dramatically expanded the IEA's work to support Brazil, the People's Republic of China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa – economies that collectively account for close to 45% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and which represent over two-thirds of emissions from developing economies.
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In China, CETP supported policy advice and modelling to help the country achieve its ambitious energy goals, including reducing emissions and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix.
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The CETP's priority countries are Brazil, the People's Republic of China (hereafter, “China”), India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa – economies that collectively accounted for 44% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2019. Our additional target regions are Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
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The IEA's relationship with China went from strength to strength in 2020; top highlights included: High-level engagement between the IEA Executive Director and Chinese officials, including Special Envoy on Climate Change Xie Zhenhua and Minister Huang Runqiu regarding extensive collaboration between the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) and the IEA on climate change co-operation.
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Advising China on the design of its national ETS, power sector reform and long-term low-carbon policy packages.
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Mapping China's clean energy innovation landscape and recent trends, continuing in 2021 ahead of finalisation of the 14th five-year plan.
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Significant methodological work and early release of Chinese energy statistics and balances in 2020 (and 2021).
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We published or contributed to 46 reports in 2020 alone, notably the IEA Energy Efficiency Indicators 2020, which included data for Brazil for the second time, the India 2020 Energy Policy Review, analysis of potential design implications of the ETS in China, a comprehensive assessment of the state and conditions for accelerating Clean Energy Transitions in North Africa, and analysis to show relevant models for attracting private investment in transmission grids.
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Early release of energy statistics and balances in 2020 for a number of CETP focus countries (China, India, Indonesia, South Africa), and yet again in 2021. Contribution to the design and release of the new Weather for Energy database and the recent Energy and Carbon Tracker data product. Work to develop new indicators related to the clean energy transition on many fronts, with a focus on innovative measures related to invention, corporate R&D, start-ups, early-stage financing and measures of life-cycle energy use.
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Significant methodological work and early release of Chinese energy statistics and balances in 2020 (and 2021). Working with NITI Aayog, the government of India's think tank, to share expertise on national energy tariffs and prices, and provide recommendations to enhance data to inform and support policies. Engagement with new partners (UNFCCC, UNEP and IPCC) on building energy data capacity for climate reporting.
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In 20[1] we will continue to support the scale-up of energy efficiency activities that generate economy-wide benefits in major emerging economies, especially Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
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Supporting China's National Energy Administration (NEA) in the preparation of its 14th five-year plan on energy, providing recommended targets to follow a rapid decarbonising pathway.
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These include mapping the Chinese approach to energy innovation and its outlook for the 14th five-year plan, support for a data platform for the Brazilian government, gathering best practice examples of support for clean energy start-ups for India, and a handbook for TCPs and governments that wish to expand their technology collaboration with multilateral efforts.
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High-level engagement between the IEA Executive Director and Chinese officials, including Special Envoy on Climate Change Xie Zhenhua and Minister Huang Runqiu regarding extensive collaboration between MEE and the IEA on climate change co-operation.
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Advising China on the design of its national ETS, power sector reform and long-term low-carbon policy packages.
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Mapping China's clean energy innovation landscape and recent trends, continuing in 2021 ahead of finalisation of the 14th five-year plan.
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For the first time there was an “early” release of Chinese energy statistics and balances in April 20twenty. This involved considerable methodological work to estimate flows since the official 2018 data were not yet available.
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This background work paved the way for an even earlier 20twenty-one release in February, including the 2014-2017 revisions and 2018 data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in December 20twenty.
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In addition efforts were made to ensure the availability of international guidelines to the Chinese energy statistics community through the translation of the International Recommendations on Energy Statistics into Chinese, achieved in March 20twenty. This is part of ongoing work to make resources available in Mandarin, including translating and editing videos.
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In 20twenty we highlighted the principal insights from the Chinese abridged version of Energy Efficiency Market Report 2019 in an IEA commentary on the role of energy efficiency in China's sustainable recovery plan.
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We also held many fruitful engagement activities with a wide range of Chinese stakeholders in 20twenty.
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new engagements with sector-specific players helped deepen sector-level energy efficiency progress in China, and included meeting the Society of Automotive Engineers of China to discuss the battery-swapping system and the International Institute of Green Finance on energy efficiency financing developments.
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The 6th joint workshop with Tsinghua University in September brought together around 70 global and local academics, practitioners, and private players to exchange their expertise on efficient cooling and green buildings, with a special focus on sustainable recovery and net-zero pathways. For the joint webinar on economic recovery in emerging Asia, we invited the Chinese ESCO Association to illustrate the role of ESCOs in accelerating clean energy transition and a green recovery.
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In 2020, the IEA and the National Development and Reform Commission – in addition to reviewing their joint achievements under the memorandum of understanding – also agreed on the priority areas for future cooperation, which include digitalization, energy efficiency data and indicators, the SEAD initiative, and jointly developing energy efficiency policy recommendations for the upcoming 14th five-year plan in light of China's commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060. The first draft has been shared with the commission and we aim to jointly finalize the analysis and make policy recommendations in the first quarter of 2021.
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This work will naturally open up discussions around data as they form the basis of our analysis, thereby contributing to a better understanding of China's data and relevant methodologies. A set of IEA policy recommendations sent directly to and reviewed by the commission, the central body in charge of national five-year plans, will mark a new level of cooperation between the IEA and China.
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Throughout 20 the IEA continued to support China in the preparation of its 14th five-year plan and by providing analyses and expertise to support the country's power sector transformation. Building upon its historic engagement with the country, the IEA organised the China Electric Power Sector Transformation webinar with the China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, the Royal Danish Embassy in Beijing and the Danish Energy Agency, with support from China's National Energy Administration, the French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement) and the European Commission.
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This event provided insights into China's electric power sector transition and policy options that can facilitate it, both in the near future (14th five-year) and in the medium and long term (2035-2050).
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China's potential flexible resources; the critical role played by supporting policies and mechanisms to bolster the transition; and the outlook for renewable energy and other clean energy developments in China.
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The issues covered in the webinar remain highly relevant to policymakers for the drafting of mechanisms that can expedite China's power sector transformation.
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We are preparing the report China 14th Five-Year Plan on Renewable Energy Development: IEA Perspective and Suggestions as part of the IEA–China three-year work programme signed in December 2019. Renewable energy is identified as one of the major areas for collaboration between the IEA and China in this second joint program.
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This research report aims to provide input for China's forthcoming 14th five-year plan on renewable energy development. It also refers to other specific areas such as the five-year plan on electric power and the five-year plan on system reform and energy efficiency.
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First, the report assesses the achievements and challenges of the 13th five-year plan on renewable energy. Based on this analysis, it then proposes policy pathways for the 14th five-year plan covering the period 2021-2025. For the first time, the report goes beyond the Chinese electricity sector and also provides detailed policy suggestions for the heat and transport sectors.
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Our policy suggestions in this report take into account the goals previously set by Chinese authorities and other boundary conditions relevant for the country. For electricity, the report suggests shifting the policy focus from installed capacity to electricity generation, and proposes an ambitious and mandatory renewables portfolio standard with tradable green certificates.
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This scheme would support China's goal of expanding competitive electricity markets and would promote further power exchange between provinces to support the system integration of wind and solar PV.
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Finally, the IEA also launched new work with Imperial College Centre for Climate Finance & Investment to produce an analysis of climate finance as a form of institutional investment and the financial performance of listed equity investments in renewables in India and China.
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Our efforts to support these objectives included analysis particularly requested by China's officials, such as:
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Designing an efficient allocation of allowances, which considers the implications of proposed trial benchmark options for China's coal-fired power sector. This in-depth analysis also assesses how the options would affect allowance allocation to different types of plant, and considers the critical elements that would determine whether generation units experience a deficit or a surplus of allowances. The report also looks at how these impacts would be distributed across provinces and companies, and provides practical suggestions on how the ETS design could evolve to play a more central role in driving China's energy transition.
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Analysis of the role of the ETS in decarbonising China's power sector, jointly prepared with Tsinghua University's Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E). This report aims to improve understanding of the role of China's national ETS and opportunities for it to support power system transformation and reduce CO2 emissions. The analysis relies on an in-depth modelling exercise for the power sector at the national and provincial levels from 2020 to 2035. It is intended to assist in designing a benchmark trajectory over time that would see CO2 emissions from power generation peak before 2030, and could position the ETS as a main driver of China's power system transformation.
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This work was requested and endorsed by high-level Chinese officials from MEE, who expanded their request to the IEA to providing further technical assistance on China's ETS and strengthening our collaboration with their local experts from
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Innovation is at the forefront of energy policy making in China, particularly as it seeks to meet the technological challenge of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
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Chinese policy makers are keen to have IEA support in fully understanding this challenge. At the same time, knowledge outside China of how innovation works in the country is limited as it undergoes major changes.
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In 2020 the IEA continued working with China on clean energy innovation, notably building on relationships developed through secondments to the IEA from China's Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and NEA. In 2020 we began analytical work to map China's clean energy innovation landscape and examine recent trends, with an agreement with MOST to publish findings in 2021 and organise a joint workshop on the topic with key Chinese experts and decision makers ahead of the finalisation of the 14th five-year plan.
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Further research into the evolving role of sub-national actors and state-owned enterprises in Chinese energy innovation, for example in the area of hydrogen, is ongoing. It will help us to better integrate Chinese energy technology developments into IEA modelling and policy recommendations in 2021.
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The event gathered high-level participants from MOST (Administrative Centre for China's Agenda 21), Energy Foundation China, Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, Chinese Wind Energy Association and Chinese Academy of Science, amongst others.
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These relationships will be further strengthened in 2021, with a new secondee from MOST starting at the IEA in the second quarter to help the IEA improve innovation data and understanding of China's international energy research partnerships.
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Finally, the IEA also launched new work with Imperial College Centre for Climate Finance & Investment to produce an analysis of climate finance as a form of institutional investment and the financial performance of listed equity investments in renewables in India and China.
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We shared findings from the CETP's work with China and Thailand on carbon pricing and power market reform.
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Surveying the ongoing multiple transformations in the electricity sector, the report addresses three core aspects of electricity security: energy transitions with more variable renewables, cyber risks, and climate impacts. It includes global case studies, including experience from Brazil, ASEAN, India and China.
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Informed by our work with China, the IEA also developed guidance for policy makers considering the implementation of an ETS in their countries.
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The mission of BERC is devoted to the development of energy-efficient and environmentally responsible buildings in China in accordance with national and international energy and environmental targets, including buildings research and innovation.
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BERC is also responsible for the Annual Report on China Building Energy Efficiency, which has been published annually since 2007.
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China's buildings sector has been experiencing rapid growth, driven by urbanization and economic development.
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The buildings sector in China is characterized by a significant share of old and inefficient buildings, which consume a large amount of energy.
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China has made significant progress in reducing its carbon intensity, but it still needs to make substantial efforts to achieve its carbon reduction targets.
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China's buildings sector is facing significant challenges in terms of energy efficiency, including a lack of standardized building codes and insufficient investment in retrofitting old buildings.
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Despite these challenges, there are many opportunities for improving energy efficiency in China's buildings sector through the implementation of policies and technologies.
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To achieve these targets, China needs to make significant changes to its energy policy framework and invest heavily in renewable energy and energy efficiency.
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China can learn from international best practices in terms of building codes, appliance standards, and energy labeling to improve the energy efficiency of its buildings sector.
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The Chinese government has been actively promoting the development of green buildings through policies such as tax incentives and low-interest loans.
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China is also a global leader in renewable energy technologies, particularly in solar and wind power, which can be applied to the buildings sector.
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Transforming Construction and Influencing Consumption to 20/50. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the buildings sector in China.
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Estimates for growth in residential floor area in China to 20/50 suggest that the total floor area will continue to grow at an average annual rate of around 3.5%.
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