podcasts
Collection
Collection for podcasts • 511 items • Updated • 2
speaker stringclasses 2
values | text stringlengths 3 2.05k |
|---|---|
A | What is going on, David? Do we have an ethereum ETF on. |
B | The menu, possibly in the middle of a meeting that we are having at bankless? We interrupt the meeting because Eric Balachunis, who knows a thing or two about the ETF, is one of the two, quote, unquote ETF boys. ETF guys. |
A | Bloomberg Bros. Is what they call the Bloomberg. |
B | Yeah, the Bloomberg bros. The ETF bros. Tweets out. Update James Safer. The other, the other ETF bro and I are increasing our odds of spot ether ETF approval to 75%, up from 25%. Hearing chatter this afternoon that the SEC could be doing a 180 on this increasingly political issue. So now everyone is scrambling like eve... |
A | That's pretty, I think, look, he said, he said increasingly political pressure. This is what we've said. |
B | And so something is going on behind the scenes. Eric and James would know about the SEC and the ETH ETF being approved. To me, like, they are upping it to 75%, which means, of course, there's a one in four chance that it's getting denied. In my opinion, the fact that this is happening at now, it's happening now. It's p... |
A | So Thursday, May 23, is when the SEC has to either approve or deny it. Okay, so it's Monday right now. So the fact that it's happening now tells you something. And both Eric and James, their sources for all of this, basically all, all along they've been saying the same message. If it was going to get approved toward th... |
B | Is an accurate take for the data that he had at the time. |
A | Exactly. Because they haven't seen anything come through. But this is, this was kind of the Hail Mary pass, like the if that we talked about on the roll up last week. We said if, and this is a big if. If Biden and the Democrats wake up at the 11th hour and realize anti crypto Gensler is about to lose them the White Hou... |
B | Yeah. Up to 25%, which was very low. Probably even, I think people were accounting for even lower than that. Up to 75%. To me, this is binary, right? If it is indeed political pressure, then it is getting approved. And it's getting approved in the final hour, because the Biden administration has realized that it's a cl... |
A | Oh, please. Yes. |
B | When Eth, it pumps in slow motion. |
A | Actually, this is all we got. |
B | Well, that's. That's a one day candle short. Let's shorten it down to the 15 minutes candles on the other side. |
A | Thanks to kraken for the charts. |
B | There you go. |
A | That's what we like. |
B | Whenever I have seen ether pump ever, it always pumps slowly over a long period of time because this market hates. Has not gone down since, like, this. This news got improved. So this is like, the market is currently digesting this. We are currently on the fourth baby pet candle here. |
A | I see it. What's that? |
B | Well, that's on the 15 minutes. On the 15 minutes, to me, like, we are currently pricing in $3,430 on the ETH. On the Eth chart. To me, we are if, again, if it's getting approved, we are so far away from actual meaningful price equilibrium. |
A | Like, this is so cheap. |
B | This is so dumb. Like, we are not done yet. |
A | We got 12% pump. |
B | Twelve hair, 12%. |
A | That's a baby. |
B | ETF approval. This is like 1%. If, if approved. This is at like 1% priced in. |
A | Not financial advice. |
B | Not financial advice. |
A | David is saying by now, but not financial advice. |
B | This. |
A | I mean, okay, so the, the price is pumping. Let's go back to James Safford street tweet because you read Eric Baltun as he says, things are taking a turn for the better spot. Ethereum ETF approvals this week, upping our odds to 75%. He says this. Never going to hear the end of. |
B | It, that they're not hacked. |
A | Yeah, yeah. He had to confirm he's not hacked. Never going to hear the end of this from the dot. Each people in my replies if this turns out to be true, but it's what we're hearing from multiple sources, should see a bunch of filings in the coming days. If we're correct, I will know that both David and I reached out to... |
B | They were from bloomberg. They have to push it through. Bloomberg. Bloomberg, their media organization. |
A | Yes. And also I think that there's probably this is happening so last minute. They're still trying to figure out, like, what exactly is going on, but you're like, glad they got this, this tweet out. David, is this a little life on the ratio here? |
B | A little bit low. An ETH approval with the ETH bitcoin ratio below 0.05 is insane. You know that the market isn't even pricing this inappropriately when poly market, I think you have that tab ready. Poly market is pricing it in at a 50%, hit refresh and then hit like the one day time. |
A | This is the poly market, the prediction market. Odds of approval of Ethereum ETF approved by May 30. |
B | Okay, so it is getting up to 75%. Yeah. Okay, so like, basically this information is informed by the blue. |
A | David. |
B | People, people. |
A | Look, dude, it was, it was 13% this morning. |
B | 13% up to 75. Approaching 75%. Currently at 69%. Nice. Also, Eleanor Tarrett, who is another commentator on the markets and crypto news, she says this is her as a primary source now saying an issuer one of the ETF issuer sources tell me that things are evolving in real time. Blackrock, bitwise, fidelity, fidelity. They... |
A | What do you mean freaking out? I mean, I think he's probably pretty calculated in this. He probably got some phone calls over the weekend and late last week. Who knows how this works behind the scenes. But yeah, there's political pressure. Okay. So the reason I'm in a collared shirt, by the way, is just like, I know yo... |
B | To it and not just an election issue. People have been saying crypto is now a partisan issue. It's now like the right versus the left. But what we saw with a sab 121 bill is it's actually splitting the Democratic Party, where you have the establishment, like, older generation Democrats, the Biden, the warrens, the gens... |
A | Can we just take it in for a minute of just, like, if this is how it happens, this would be the most crypto thing ever. |
B | This timeline is fantastic, which is basically. |
A | Everyone expected the SEC to deny it. It was just denied. Denied. Guys, they have lawsuits against five crypto companies. Joe Lubin just came on the bankless podcast three weeks ago and is like, they're out to get Ethereum, right? They're looking at the Githubs. They're, they're trying to make the case that Ethereum it... |
B | Yeah. The timeline, I think, is, like, pretty perfect. Mike Capolito was calling for, like, eth sentiment, bottom calls just last week. E sentiment, just, like, in the absolute, like, dumpster. Like, just vibes, just really bad. |
A | What was that? Okay, so I was barely paying attention to this on, like, crypto Twitter, but it just, like, felt very much that. I mean, people were blaming farcaster that. |
B | Yeah, like, the Ethereum leadership. Ethereum thought leaders just have, like, abandoned Twitter. They're all on Farcaster now. No one is left on Twitter defending eth sentiment. |
A | The narrative. |
B | The narrative is dead. Yeah, like, meme coins were on Solana eth not getting its ETF, like, all this kind of stuff. We actually have a bunch of these tweets talking about this, like, lined up. We got some tweets from Eric Conner. We got some tweets from Jake Stravinsky. We got James Safir talking about how the ETH were... |
A | Oh, it's going to be, it's going to feel like whiplash. Right. It's good. I think, I think there's going to be a lot of ETH bulls that are very excited because this has been a very lackluster bull market for Ethereum up to this point. Right. And it's just so, so let's talk about this for a second. If this happens again... |
B | October 2023, excuse me, October 2022 was when it was announced that Grayscale had filed. And then it took the market, like six months to really absorb what that meant. And then it was November of 2023, about a year later, when that actually got approved. |
A | That's right. |
B | It was like six months leading up to that approval with a slow crescendo of price action. |
A | It started getting priced in around this, this area right here. And like, then we saw just like this steady march, upwards of bitcoin price. I think that Ethereum will do this and more because, like, more because it will be an amplifier effect, because smaller market cap, of course, but also Ethereum had, like, higher ... |
B | Yeah, I think you have Jake Stravinsky's tweet somewhere towards the end there, and he just echoes this same sentiment. He says if the spot ETH, ETF is approved, it will be a true shock to everyone I know in DC who's close to this process. It means approval could shift, a major shift in us crypto policy after the SAB 1... |
A | Yeah. I wonder if this puts an end to sort of the extreme regulatory headwinds that we've been facing for the last, basically 18 months to two years. Right. |
B | We had operation choke, pointless sales. Yeah. |
A | The anti crypto army like, this feels to me like it's, it's more than just Ethereum, ETF being approved. As Jake is saying. This is like a shift in DC, and it's basically democratic establishment saying, hey, you know, being anti crypto fight, we. |
B | Don'T want to fight that fight. |
A | It's not going to win, like, Biden the presidential election. And so, like we, maybe they lean into, start leaning into being pro crypto. I think there's a marker of that, too. And which, which means we might get the headwinds in our favor for some brief period of time. Right. We've never had that. |
B | What we learned from the consensus interview with Joe Lubin and Matt the lawyer, is that there is like a back, back room, like smoke, smoke filled room of people who do not want the ETH, ETF approved because they're trying to suppress Ethereum. They're not concerned with bitcoin because bitcoin doesn't have smart contr... |
A | David, are you looking at this tweet here? This is Bill Hughes, Elizabeth Warren making phone calls right now. I don't care that he's in a meeting. I want him on the phone now. Anti crypto army in shambles. I want to go back to a Mike Capolito take. He says this feels like the bottom sentiment in ETH sentiment. He post... |
B | Yeah. That's currently priced in or getting priced in, but also really, like I said, really slowly, the. Okay, ETH is up 11.7% in on the one day. Solana is up 9%. So, like, ETH is actually only up two and a half percent versus Solana. But also, like, all the long tail of crypto assets should definitely get a boon from ... |
A | Yeah. And so do you recall some of the numbers we went through with the. I feel like some of these numbers slowed with, like, how big the pipe, the capital pipe is from bitcoin institutional, like, purchasing of bitcoin from all of the rias. And, I mean, we're talking about, like, trillions of dollars how big is the bi... |
B | It's like, I'm actually looking it up right now. |
A | Yeah, look that. Look that up because I think we're in the. What are we in the, like the $30 to $50 billion market cap, something like that. And like, to catch gold, if I recall. |
B | Figure it out. |
A | Okay, well, these are just numbers off the top of my head, but it feels like we're in the 30 to 50 billion range in terms of bitcoin ETF. And it's been the, like, the most bullish performing ETF in history, I feel like, to catch gold, it was something like 90 billion to catch gold's numbers. And so you sort of wonder w... |
B | Did you say how many billions? |
A | I said 30 to 50. How wrong was I? |
B | 12 billion. |
A | Oh, really? Okay. I'm ahead of myself. |
B | Interestingly, in the last two weeks, you know, we've been at some sort of like, market milieu market, like quiet period, some doldrums, some crabbing in the last 12345 months or so. We are entering second week in a row, this week, of inbound ETF, bitcoin flows. And so bitcoin, the actual flows are going into bitcoin o... |
A | Okay, so we've got some positive strength there. Can we talk about the institutional narrative for ethereum, David? I think it's a little bit different than bitcoin. |
B | Very. |
A | We've got productive asset. These ETF's, to the extent they get approved, they will not be staked ETF's. They will just be plain vanilla eth. Right. But you still have the narrative of this is a positive yield bearing asset. Once Eth is staked, I think that's important. I think institutions have talked about tokenizati... |
B | Tokens that you know about, all those nfts that you know about, those are on Ethereum, right? |
A | Even the Blackrock biddle fund, which is pretty major, which is like, I don't know, up to like 400 million, something like this. Close to half a billion in t bills. That is on Ethereum as well. So that is kind of like complimentary. So I think you've got the Internet bond narrative. You've got the productive yield bear... |
B | I think the biggest narrative is the one that Sandy Kool from Franklin Templeton was talking to us about, about how Ethereum is a tech platform. So if you want to own real estate in the same way that like you're kind of familiar with by owning Facebook shares or owning Twitter shares, ethereum is that it is a platform ... |
A | Yeah, I think that's right. And I think that's a different valuation. Although we would also argue Ethereum, Ether has similar monetary properties as bitcoin, of course, and should be and could be viewed as a store of value as well. I think that's going to be exciting to watch institutions kind of price that in. I gues... |
B | Yeah, but compared to bitcoins futures, yes. Yeah. Like I dont expect the ETF's to be bigger than bitcoin certainly, but the thing is, $1 of capital into an ETH ETF means something like three x more than $1 into a bitcoin ETF because ETH is one third the size of the market cap of bitcoin. And so it just simply moves th... |
A | You know what's crazy is the ETH still has a 20% discount. |
B | Every single, every single crypto fund right now is like looking out how to buy ETH. And I know that because we are thinking about that at bank ventures. |
A | We should have already done. |
B | We should have already done. |
A | We should get off this live stream and like go buy it. So ethy, of course, is the grayscale Ethereum trust, which will become an ETH ETF. |
B | That gap will just smoosh. |
A | Yeah, it would automatically become a bitcoin ETF. And I think that, yeah, it's a 20% discount. You could still buy ETH, like 20% discount. So it's crazy that that exists as well. |
B | It's also cool to watch the Coinbase stock price also pump on this news as well. Again, this is probably the. Well, a coinbase will be the custodian for the ETH ETF, but mainly it's just like the regulatory risk of the industry is like pumping everything. Coinbase is up like 12%, 8% on the day. Today. There's a new twe... |
A | So this is different than how it happened with the bitcoin ETF, though, right? Because bitcoin ETF was approved and then basically days later we had open, like bitcoin ETF's that you could purchase. So this would be a little bit of a delay. And I guess that's just because of the scheduling. So the May 23 was just van X... |
B | Oh, okay. I'm sending you another tweet. You need to open up this tweet. I'm sending it to you in the dock. I'm hiring it. Tier ten k. This is bullish. This is bullish. |
A | I love all the bullish stuff. |
B | All right, tier ten k. Sec, sec, sec asks exchanges to update. |
A | What? |
B | Either ETf's. Yes. |
A | Eric. |
B | You got to pump those numbers up, baby. |
End of preview. Expand in Data Studio
README.md exists but content is empty.
- Downloads last month
- 4