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Risks: The risks that may impede achievement of our NT$16 target price are: (1) The 2008 global semiconductor up-cycle is not as strong as expected; being an upstream company, ASE tends to be more cyclical than other tech plays.
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(continued) capex spending and injudicious borrowing of debt, carving out a larger piece of the overall firm value to creditors.
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We expect National's Operating margins to reach 30.0% by F3Q09..
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In addition, CNO also gets the baseline benefit of $1.00-$1.42 for a total of $6.61-$7.74 per share.
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βΒ»β¬ββ¬β Q2 revenue, margin, and EPS guidance much weaker than consensus due to softness in networking, consumer, and storage segments βΒ»β¬ββ¬β Inventories grew by $20 million, or roughly 10%, reflecting softer Q1 demand βΒ»β¬ββ¬β Consumer revenues have fallen 54% YoY as iPod related shipments decline meaningfully βΒ»β¬ββ¬β Desktop and notebook shipments expected to weak in Q2 βΒ»β¬ββ¬β Investor expectations were substantially unaligned with reality for Q2:07 and possibly beyond.
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Maintaining BUY rating and $29 target price, based on a 13.4x EV/EBITDA target multiple on our 2005 EBITDA estimate of $258.3 million.
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The Virtex family since its introduction has already generated revenues (mostly prototype) in excess of $100 million.
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positive
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What is the sentiment of this news? Please choose an answer from negative, neutral, or positive.
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Recent weekly new prescription data shows Vioxx market share stabilizing at around 15.0% over the past month, compared with 18.5% in early 2002.
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positive
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We think AS/400 software is roughly 7βΒ»β¬ββ¬β 9% of total IBM software.
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The 70%-owned WesternGeco seismic business is expected to generate pretax losses of an estimated $20 million, compared to our prior estimate of a $5 million pretax gain, generating a negative EPS swing of $0.03 per share.
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We also expect to hear a lot about IBM's middleware strategy that we view as a very attractive business for IBM.
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By our calculations, under a cap-and-trade system with an initial CO2 cost of $10/ton and a 100% allowance grant, AYE's operating income would increase by approximately $325 million, or $1.15 per share.
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A substantial incremental revenue opportunity also exists in maintenance treatment, for which Revlimid is ideally suited.
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EBay's forward P/E multiple remains reasonably well correlated to its year-over-year revenue growth rate.
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Second, plans were announced for a second gate at Disneyland Paris (Euro Disney).
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neutral
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We suggest investors remain focused on the upcoming restructuring announcement, as our sum-of-the parts analysis continues to value the asset base of TOY significantly higher than the current stock price.
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In reviewing the company's asset-based returns such as operating cash flow return on assets and return on invested capital (ROIC), Sara Lee made tremendous progress over the last five years, even when compared with companies with much higher valuations and supposed growth prospects greater than its own.
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The high effective tax rate (about 43%) was negatively impacted by an additional $45 million in income tax due to the company's plans to repatriate approximately $500 million of accumulated foreign earnings in 2005.
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We believe that current evident sources of ilquidity plus announced asset sales provide AES with more-than-adequate funds to operate in 2002.
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As such, we see the potential for multiple expansion from its current levels of around 16.3x 2008E EPS and 7.6x EBITDA, and further upside to FY08 guidance, to drive the stock closer to our $54 target price.
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4Q EPS from continuing operations was $0.47 and diluted EPS was $0.55, in line with our estimate and consensus for $0.54.
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Cash flow from operations of $231 million was lighter in the quarter due to challenging sales linearity, and the company repurchased $251 million of its shares.
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The Gulf of Mexico jackup market started the quarter with a strong tailwind, especially for premium units such as Rowan's eleven 350' independent leg cantilevered units (ILCs).
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While the cancellation of the Comanche was a disappointment to Sikorsky, additional work on the Blackhawk should help to mitigate the loss.
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A continued improvement in performance at the company's newer divisions, along with a turn at A.J.
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Data on morbidity and hospitalization are expected in H2 2003, while data on mortality is expected in H1 2004.
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ACE can experience significant earnings volatility arising from catastrophic events, Hurricane Katrina being an example.
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LP has reached an agreement to sell its composite decking business to Fibre Composites, LLC βΒ»β¬ββ¬β a manufacturer of similar outdoor composite products in the U.S. A sale or closure of this business had been expected, given anemic results in recent quarters.
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The result was 1% weaker than our $380 million estimate.
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The company has seen its net interest revenue steadily decline over the last 12 months due to a planned exit of selected lending businesses and weak earning asset growth.
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Ryoshin Leasing Corporation - This fall GECS will finalize the formation of a new joint venture and will control 80% of the leading leasing company in conjunction with Mistshubishi Corporation, the Japanese trading house, and Mitshubishi Trust and Banking Corporation, a leading Japanese trust bank.
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This provides the company with the ability to complete an acquisition and convert it before the year 2000.
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Amgen has been pleased with safety and efficacy data from these compounds.
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quarter as the combined ratio improved to 90.9% from 94.4% in the first quarter.
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On the cost side, we estimate Tribune has an incremental $20M of newsprint expense savings versus 1H, while there is still likely additional savings that will flow into 3Q from the 2Q layoffs.
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The net margin was up 90 basis points due to good cost control on the SG&A (selling, general and administrative) expense line, partially offset by increases in all other expense itemsmost notably research and development (R&D).
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Clearly this is a psychological benefit for WLA; Lipitor market share gains have been steady and this might provide some additional momentum over time.
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As described in the spending detail above, the swing in EBITDA from these three cost categories should be almost $100 million in 2000, or more than 10% growth just from reduced spending alone (on about a $1 billion base).
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Pretax earnings in the fixed annuity segment were $23.7 million in the third quarter of 2001 compared with $21.9 million a year earlier.
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This seems like a fairly conservative outlook in our opinion though the company did articulate a couple of factors which will contribute to ongoing MLR pressure.
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Its 10% daily revenue growth was driven by 4.2% daily volume growth and 5.2% year-over-year yield improvement.
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Our new FY09 adjusted EPS estimate implies 12% growth over FY08, although we point out that this is inclusive of Longs integration costs..
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Like last quarter, we expect Europe to be the standout performer at the top-line, now that the drag of the detergent business is gone.
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Commercial and Consumer realized negative 3% incremental operating profit margins due to higher costs.
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The upside was driven primarily by favorable weather and reserve development (about $0.27 in total), but most operating metrics support our view of the cycle dynamics in personal automobile.
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preferred equity offering for LHO in February 2002, sole-managed a follow-on offering of 2.2 million LHO shares at $14.73 per share in July 2003, and lead-managed an offering of 1.1 million preferred shares at $25.00 per share for LHO in September 2003..
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Stryker Endoscopy: Endoscopy sales increased 20% (18% constant currency) in the quarter (22% domestically/13% internationally) to approximately $120 million, $2 million short of our 22% growth assumption of $122 million.
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The cashmere will be priced at an appealing $39.50 - $49.50 and the company hopes it will act as a traffic driver for the holiday season.
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These revisions increased MRK's 5-year EPS compound growth rate to 5% from 3% previously..
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Any asset impairment or reserve change would lower book equity and, therefore, debt covenant issues could come into play on the company's $1 billion undrawn revolver.
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We estimate that the better-for-you business represents around 13% of Frito-Lay's total portfolio, whereas the indulgent business claims the remaining 87%, where volume growth grew in the low single digits during 2003.
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In addition the company is making significant investment in the Barnett Shale (Fort Worth Basin), as one of the core growth assets (Exhibit 4 & Exhibit 5)..
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Clearly a majority of the growth will come from its existing product offering.
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neutral
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-28 Sales surprised to the downside in the quarter, which was generally worse than underlying script growth (tracked by IMS).
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We are also initiating a 2002 estimate of $4.05 and maintaining our 2000 estimate of $3.80.
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Specific Investment Risks related to the Industry or Issuer The company faces challenging economic conditions.
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Accounts receivable increased 33.6%, primarily driven by the growth in Target Visa receivables, which had total period-end receivables growth of 33.8% over last year.
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We had forecast first European sales of Amevive in 2004.
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Sales of safety-engineered blood collection products helped drive Preanalytical sales growth, which was $74 million in the quarter versus $64 million in 4Q02 (16% growth).
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Chart 7: Stock Price Against 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages.
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These were partly offset by strong performances in CRM, procurement and Asia.
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To this point, the only potential offset to slowing operating margin expansion would be an acceleration in the store expansion of either Christmas Tree Shops and/or Harmon Discount βΒ»β¬ββ¬β at which point, we don't see either happening this year or next.
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The breakup fees range between 4-5% of the transaction value.
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Sales in ladies' and men's apparel were below last year..
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In total, Gateway had 758 retail locations worldwide at quarter's end.
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OMC has outperformed media peers in 2008 driven by strong international growth, Olympic impact to US national, FX, marketing services share gain and digital.
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Small and mid-size group enrollment growth is insufficient to provided this.
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That said, there are some near term headwinds that we will monitor over the next several quarters.
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The company sees particular strength in the Asia/Pacific and European regions and aims to further strengthen its network of international distribution partners in those areas.
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The quarter had excellent linearity through the holidays, and bookings were about in line with shipments.
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Black's presence should contribute to both institutional client retention as well as Janus' ability to attract new institutional customers.
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This is best efforts, at this stage, and our estimates are under review.
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Conversely, yesterday, CAH effectively discussed current dialogue with most of its pharma manufactures relationships, including the completion of a next generation distribution agreement with Merck, which apparently provided similar economics to historical agreements albeit in a new fee for service model, where CAH is explicitly paid for ancillary services that were previously bundled into overall economics (e.g.
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As edge network capacity increases and is utilized, we expect core network investments to increase also (adding to what we believe is a building, natural replacement upcycle).
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The exhibits below show LLTC's earnings sensitivity to variations in 2007 revenue and profitability; with the blue highlighted range showing what we believe is the most likely range of outcomes.
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Gap is moving through the excess inventory via markdowns and expects that the levels will be back on line starting in the fall season..
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Importantly, management indicated that the restructuring charge booked in 3Q03 could lead to annualized expense savings of $80-85 million by the end of 2004.
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Third, while Freddie Mac's growth prospects have always been supported by its ability to promote strong primary market originations and capture a greater share of secondary market volume, we believe the company's recent entrance into several nontraditional segments of the mortgage market offer tremendous new growth opportunities beyond any that have existed before.
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Investment advisory fees totaled $189.7 million in the second quarter, below our estimate of $192.3 million.
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Lifescan: Sales continue to be on the mend, as 4Q revenues grew 16%, to $288 million.
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What is the sentiment of this news? Please choose an answer from negative, neutral, or positive.
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The key SGA disappointment was with PINK and bras.
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We are holding expenses in check as Maxim has guided that has sales increase SG&A will not scale and that total below the line items will get to 25% of sales and head toward 20% with sales growth.
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HIGHLIGHTS We have previously noted market disruptions on Tuesday, Feb. 27 on the NYSE, related to the DJIA calculations.
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SAFECO's 1Q99 EPS of $0.60 fell significantly short of both our estimate of $0.70 and the consensus estimate of $0.69.
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Old Navy continues to search for the right balance of fashion and basics.
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The BlueLight Special, which was reborn on April 2, has resulted in strong initial results, with BlueLight shoppers purchasing almost 2X the items of other shoppers (with the average basket size up 20%) and registering significantly higher average purchases.
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What is the sentiment of this news? Please choose an answer from negative, neutral, or positive.
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PRGO announced this morning that its partner on generic Prilosec OTC, Dexcel (private), had reached a settlement with patent holder AstraZeneca (AZN, $49.10, Not Covered) regarding Dexcel's Paragraph IV challenge of AZN's patents (we had known a settlement had been reached, but we had not known the nature of the agreement).
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Today, G announced the launch of M3Power, its new razor & blade system for.
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The infusions were generally well tolerated, with transient mild-to-moderate infusion-related reactions that occurred in 59% of patients during either the double-blind or open-label phases of treatment.
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However, the one important trump card that remains to be played is whether a higher hospital reimbursement rate for CRT-D technology will translate into higher procedure rates, which we would expect.
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We are a bit nervous about management's volume growth guidance for this year, and we think that increasing competition could pressure volume growth in future years.
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We are somewhat surprised by the degree of volatility in the results, from unexpected margin declines in fiscal 4Q04, to soft.
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Strong 4Q Results; Raising Estimates & Price Target.
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In October, Hyundai initiated aggressive moves to penetrate the North American arena through the shipment of more than one million cdmaOne handsets over the course of 1999.
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However, note the Lucent's role at BT is primarily to provide professional services related to designing and deploying the IP core with Juniper's equipment.
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Gross deposits totaled $1.58 billion in the quarter, down 48% versus the year ago quarter and 21% sequentially.
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Trend lines were not as positive as we originally thought.
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Operating results exclude an after-tax gain of $7M resulting from equity investment gains and an after-tax charge of $7M related to the purchase of in-process R&D associated with the PowerSchool acquisition..
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Using the same peer comparison, this leads us to a price to book multiple of 1.1 times.
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In addition to convenience, Genzyme claims this will also lower the cost of therapy for patients with osteoarthritis of the knee.
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