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  ---
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  license: cc-by-4.0
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  language:
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- - en
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  tags:
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- - mitochondrial-variants
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- - pathogenicity-prediction
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- - protein-language-model
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- - ESM-2
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- - machine-learning
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- pretty_name: IDP Pathogenicity Model
 
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  size_categories:
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- - 10K<n<100K
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  ---
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- Mechanistically Informed Machine Learning for Pathogenicity Prediction of Mitochondrial Missense Variants
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-
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- Harrizi S., Nait Idraha I., Mostafa K., Arnoult D.
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- Submitted to Bioinformatics (Oxford University Press)
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-
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-
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- Overview
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- This repository contains the full analysis pipeline for a hybrid machine learning framework that predicts the pathogenicity of missense variants in mitochondrial proteins. The model integrates ESM-2 protein language model embeddings with 45 interpretable biophysical features tailored to mitochondrial biology, trained and validated on 11,928 ClinVar-annotated variants spanning 639 mitochondrial proteins.
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- Key results:
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- ModelAUC–ROCAUC–PROur model (MLP + ESM-2)0.8990.923Random Forest + ESM-20.882—Logistic Regression + ESM-20.864—AlphaMissense0.9420.954PolyPhen-20.8450.799SIFT0.8260.749
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- All models evaluated under leave-protein-out cross-validation on the same variant set.
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-
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- Repository Structure
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- IDP/
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-
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- ├── data/
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- │ ├── raw/ # Downloaded source data
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- │ │ ├── clinvar/ # ClinVar variant annotations (release 2024/12)
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- │ │ ├── uniprot/ # UniProt mitochondrial protein sequences
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- │ │ ├── disprot/ # DisProt intrinsic disorder annotations
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- │ │ ├── mobidb/ # MobiDB disorder predictions
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- │ │ ├── alphafold/ # AlphaFold structure data
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- │ │ ├── dms/ # Deep mutational scanning data
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- │ │ └── llpsdb/ # Liquid-liquid phase separation database
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- │ │
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- │ ├── processed/ # Cleaned and merged datasets
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- │ │ ├── mutation_dataset.parquet
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- │ │ ├── mutation_features.parquet
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- │ │ ├── mutations_dataset_final.parquet / .tsv
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- │ │ └── mutations_dataset_mito_strict.parquet / .tsv
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- │ │
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- │ └── frozen/ # MD5-versioned frozen dataset for reproducibility
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- │ ├── mutations_dataset_final_FROZEN.parquet
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- │ ├── mutations_dataset_mito_strict_FROZEN.parquet
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- │ └── FREEZE_METADATA.json
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-
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- ├── embeddings/ # ESM-2 embeddings (precomputed)
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- │ ├── embeddings_combined_full.npy # Global + local combined (full dataset)
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- │ ├── embeddings_global_full.npy # Global protein embeddings
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- │ ├── embeddings_local_full.npy # Local ±15-residue window embeddings
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- │ ├── embeddings_combined_strict.npy # Strict mitochondrial subset
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- │ └── embeddings_by_protein.pkl # Per-protein embedding dictionary
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-
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- ├── features/ # Extracted biophysical features
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- │ ├── features_classical_full.parquet
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- │ └── features_classical_mito_strict.parquet
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-
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- ├── models/ # Trained model checkpoints
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- │ ├── checkpoints/
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- │ │ ├── pathogenicity_classifier.pkl
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- │ │ └── pathogenicity_classifier_v2.pkl
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- │ ├── model_classical_baseline.pkl
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- │ └── model_classical_mito_strict.pkl
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-
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- ├── results/ # Outputs and evaluations
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- │ ├── evaluations/
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- │ │ └── lpocv_results.json
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- │ ├── lpocv_predictions_final.parquet
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- ├── hierarchical_validation_final.pkl
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- ├── full_analysis_with_ensemble.parquet
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- │ └── feature_importances_classical.csv
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-
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- ├── scripts/ # Python analysis scripts
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- ├── data_download.py
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- │ ├── build_clinvar_mito_dataset.py
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- │ ├── build_mutation_dataset.py
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- │ ├── phase1_freeze_and_classical_features.py
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- │ ├── esm2_t33_650M_UR50D.py
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- │ ├── train_baseline_classical_model.py
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- │ ├── final_mlp_embedding_model.py
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- │ ├── lpocv_validation.py
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- │ ├── hierarchical_validation_no_leakage.py
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- │ ├── model_comparison_features_vs_esm2.py
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- │ └── analyze_bias_and_train_strict_mito.py
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-
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- └── configs/ # Configuration files
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-
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- Installation
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- bashgit clone https://github.com/YOUR_USERNAME/IDP-Pathogenicity-Model.git
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- cd IDP-Pathogenicity-Model
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-
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- pip install torch torchvision torchaudio --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/cu118
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- pip install fair-esm
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- pip install numpy scipy pandas scikit-learn statsmodels
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- pip install biopython matplotlib seaborn plotly
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- pip install einops tqdm joblib requests pyyaml networkx pyarrow
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- Python version: 3.10
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- Key dependencies: PyTorch 2.0 · scikit-learn 1.3 · NumPy 1.24 · pandas 2.0 · fair-esm
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- GPU: NVIDIA A100 recommended (Google Colab Pro+ used for training)
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-
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- Reproducing the Analysis
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- 1. Download raw data
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- bashpython scripts/data_download.py
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- Downloads ClinVar (release 2024/12), UniProt mitochondrial proteins, DisProt, and MobiDB. Expected runtime: ~30 minutes.
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- 2. Build the variant dataset
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- bashpython scripts/build_clinvar_mito_dataset.py
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- python scripts/build_mutation_dataset.py
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- Filters variants to mitochondrial proteins using MitoCarta 3.0 and OMIM annotations.
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- 3. Extract biophysical features
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- bashpython scripts/phase1_freeze_and_classical_features.py
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- Computes 45 biophysical features per variant.
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- 4. Extract ESM-2 embeddings
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- bashpython scripts/esm2_t33_650M_UR50D.py
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- Generates global and local (±15-residue window) embeddings using esm2_t33_650M_UR50D. For proteins longer than 1,022 residues, embeddings are computed on the N-terminal portion. Requires GPU. Expected runtime: ~2–4 hours.
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- 5. Train and validate the model
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- bashpython scripts/final_mlp_embedding_model.py
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- python scripts/lpocv_validation.py
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- Trains the MLP classifier and runs leave-protein-out cross-validation. StandardScaler and PCA are fitted exclusively on the training fold — no test-set leakage.
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- 6. Baseline model comparison
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- bashpython scripts/model_comparison_features_vs_esm2.py
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- python scripts/train_baseline_classical_model.py
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- Evaluates logistic regression and random forest baselines on the same feature set under the same LPOCV framework.
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-
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- Model Architecture
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- ComponentDetailsInput features173 (128 PCA-reduced embedding dimensions + 45 biophysical)ArchitectureMLP: Input → 256 → 128 → 1 (sigmoid)ActivationReLU + Dropout (0.3, 0.2)OptimizerAdam (lr = 0.001, weight decay = 1×10⁻⁴)LossBinary cross-entropyEpochs30–50ValidationLeave-protein-out cross-validationPreprocessingStandardScaler + PCA fitted on training fold only
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- Baseline comparison
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- ModelAUC–ROCLogistic Regression + ESM-20.864Random Forest + ESM-20.882MLP + ESM-2 (proposed)0.899
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-
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- Dataset
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- PropertyValueTotal variants11,928Pathogenic / likely pathogenic6,882 (57.7%)Benign / likely benign5,046 (42.3%)Proteins639SourceClinVar release 2024/12Protein sequencesUniProt release 2024_05Mitochondrial annotationMitoCarta 3.0 + OMIM
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- The frozen dataset (data/frozen/) is MD5-checksummed for reproducibility.
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-
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- Benchmarking
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- ToolN variantsAUC–ROCAUC–PROur model (MLP + ESM-2)11,7630.8990.923AlphaMissense11,2320.9420.954PolyPhen-27,3040.8450.799SIFT6,9970.8260.749
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- AlphaMissense scores retrieved from the public bulk file (AlphaMissense_hg38.tsv.gz). PolyPhen-2 and SIFT scores retrieved via the UniProt Proteins variation API.
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-
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- Data Availability
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- Raw data sources:
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-
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- ClinVar: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/clinvar/
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- UniProt: https://www.uniprot.org/
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- MitoCarta 3.0: https://www.broadinstitute.org/mitocarta
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- DisProt: https://disprot.org/
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- MobiDB: https://mobidb.org/
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- AlphaMissense scores: https://storage.googleapis.com/dm_alphamissense/AlphaMissense_hg38.tsv.gz
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-
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- Processed datasets and model checkpoints are available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.
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  Citation
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- Harrizi S., Nait Idraha I., Mostafa K., Arnoult D. (2025).
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- Mechanistically informed machine learning for pathogenicity prediction
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- of mitochondrial missense variants. Bioinformatics (submitted).
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-
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- Authors
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- Saad Harrizi — Laboratoire Santé, Environnement et Biotechnologie, Faculté Des Sciences Ain Chock, Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc.
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- Imane Nait Idraha — Laboratoire Santé, Environnement et Biotechnologie, Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc.
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- Kabine Mostafa — Laboratoire Santé, Environnement et Biotechnologie, Université Hassan II de Casablanca, Maroc.
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- Damien Arnoult (Corresponding author) — INSERM UMR-S-MD 1193, Université Paris Saclay, Villejuif, France; INSERM-U1124, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France; CNRS Research Director (DR2).
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- damien.arnoult@inserm.fr
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-
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- License
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- This repository is released for academic and research use. Please contact the corresponding author for commercial use inquiries.
 
1
  ---
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  license: cc-by-4.0
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  language:
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+ - en
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  tags:
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+ - mitochondrial-variants
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+ - pathogenicity-prediction
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+ - protein-language-model
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+ - ESM-2
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+ - machine-learning
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+ - bioinformatics
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+ pretty_name: IDP Pathogenicity Model – Mitochondrial Missense Variants
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  size_categories:
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+ - 10K < n < 100K
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  ---
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+
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+ # IDP Pathogenicity Model
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+ **Mechanistically Informed Prediction of Pathogenicity for Mitochondrial Missense Variants**
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+
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+ > Harrizi S., Nait Idraha I., Mostafa K., Arnoult D.
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+ > Submitted to *Bioinformatics* (2025)
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+
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+ This repository / model card describes a hybrid machine-learning classifier that predicts the pathogenicity of **missense variants** in **mitochondrial proteins**.
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+
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+ The model combines **ESM-2** (t33_650M_UR50D) protein language model embeddings with 45 carefully designed **biophysical and mitochondrial-specific features**, and is trained under strict **leave-protein-out cross-validation** to minimize data leakage.
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+
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+ ## Key Performance (Leave-Protein-Out CV)
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+
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+ | Model | AUC–ROC | AUC–PR |
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+ |------------------------------------|---------|--------|
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+ | **Our model (MLP + ESM-2 + features)** | **0.899** | **0.923** |
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+ | Random Forest + ESM-2 | 0.882 | — |
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+ | Logistic Regression + ESM-2 | 0.864 | — |
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+ | AlphaMissense | 0.942 | 0.954 |
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+ | PolyPhen-2 | 0.845 | 0.799 |
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+ | SIFT | 0.826 | 0.749 |
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+
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+ *All tools evaluated on the same ClinVar mitochondrial missense set under leave-protein-out protocol.*
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+
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+ ## Model Inputs
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+
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+ - **ESM-2 embeddings** — global protein embedding + local window (±15 residues)
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+ - **45 biophysical features** — conservation, disorder (DisProt/MobiDB), AlphaFold pLDDT, charge changes, hydrophobicity, mitochondrial-specific annotations, etc.
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+
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+ Final input dimensionality after PCA: **173 features** (128 PCA-reduced ESM dimensions + 45 classical features)
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+
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+ ## Architecture
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+
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+ Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)
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+
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+ | Layer | Units | Activation | Regularization |
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+ |----------------|-------|------------|--------------------|
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+ | Input | 173 | — | — |
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+ | Hidden 1 | 256 | ReLU | Dropout 0.3 |
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+ | Hidden 2 | 128 | ReLU | Dropout 0.2 |
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+ | Output | 1 | Sigmoid | — |
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+
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+ - Optimizer: Adam (lr=0.001, weight decay=1e-4)
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+ - Loss: Binary Cross-Entropy
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+ - Preprocessing: StandardScaler + PCA (fitted only on train fold)
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+ - Training epochs: 30–50 (early stopping used)
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+
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+ ## Dataset Summary
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+
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+ - **Total variants**: 11,928 ClinVar missense variants (release 2024/12)
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+ - **Pathogenic / likely pathogenic**: 6,882 (57.7%)
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+ - **Benign / likely benign**: 5,046 (42.3%)
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+ - **Mitochondrial proteins**: 639 (MitoCarta 3.0 + OMIM filtering)
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+ - Sequence source: UniProt 2024_05
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+ - Frozen & MD5-versioned dataset available in `data/frozen/`
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+
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+ ## Repository Structure (main folders)
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+ IDP-Pathogenicity-Model/
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+ ├── data/ # raw, processed & frozen datasets
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+ ├── embeddings/ # precomputed ESM-2 embeddings (.npy, .pkl)
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+ ── features/ # extracted biophysical features
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+ ├── models/ # trained checkpoints (joblib/pkl)
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+ ├── results/ # LPOCV predictions, feature importances, etc.
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+ ├── scripts/ # full reproducible pipeline
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+ ── configs/ # YAML configuration files
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+
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+ ## Quick Start – Inference (once model is uploaded)
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+
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+ ```python
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+ import joblib
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+ import torch
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+ from fair_esm import pretrained
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+
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+ model = joblib.load("pathogenicity_classifier_v2.pkl")
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+ esm_model, alphabet = pretrained.load_model_and_alphabet("esm2_t33_650M_UR50D")
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+
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+ # Example: get prediction for one variant
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+ # (you need to prepare the 173-dim feature vector yourself)
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+ prob = model.predict_proba(features)[0, 1] # pathogenic probability
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+ Full inference pipeline coming soon (feature extraction + ESM inference + prediction in one script).
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+ Reproducing the Experiments
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+ See detailed steps in the original README:
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+
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+ data_download.py
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+ build_clinvar_mito_dataset.py + build_mutation_dataset.py
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+ phase1_freeze_and_classical_features.py
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+ esm2_t33_650M_UR50D.py (GPU heavy – ~2–4 h)
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+ final_mlp_embedding_model.py + lpocv_validation.py
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+
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+ Limitations & Notes
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+
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+ Model optimized specifically for mitochondrial proteins — performance on nuclear proteins is not guaranteed
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+ AlphaMissense remains stronger on general proteins (0.942 vs 0.899), but our model is competitive while using far fewer parameters and incorporating explicit mitochondrial biology
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+ Strict leave-protein-out CV was used realistic generalization to unseen proteins
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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  Citation
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+ bibtex@article{harrizi2025mechanistically,
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+ title = {Mechanistically informed machine learning for pathogenicity prediction of mitochondrial missense variants},
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+ author = {Harrizi, Saad and Nait Idraha, Imane and Mostafa, Kabine and Arnoult, Damien},
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+ journal = {Bioinformatics},
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+ year = {2025},
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+ note = {Submitted}
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+ }
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+ Authors & Contact
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+
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+ Saad Harrizi (main developer) – Université Hassan II de Casablanca – saadharrizi0@gmail.com
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+ Damien Arnoult (corresponding) – INSERM, Paris – damien.arnoult@inserm.fr
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+
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+ We welcome feedback, questions, and potential collaborations.