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license: cc-by-4.0
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language:
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- en
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tags:
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- mitochondrial-variants
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- pathogenicity-prediction
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- protein-language-model
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- ESM-2
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- machine-learning
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size_categories:
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---
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This repository
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├──
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2. Build the variant dataset
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bashpython scripts/build_clinvar_mito_dataset.py
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python scripts/build_mutation_dataset.py
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Filters variants to mitochondrial proteins using MitoCarta 3.0 and OMIM annotations.
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3. Extract biophysical features
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bashpython scripts/phase1_freeze_and_classical_features.py
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Computes 45 biophysical features per variant.
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4. Extract ESM-2 embeddings
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bashpython scripts/esm2_t33_650M_UR50D.py
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Generates global and local (±15-residue window) embeddings using esm2_t33_650M_UR50D. For proteins longer than 1,022 residues, embeddings are computed on the N-terminal portion. Requires GPU. Expected runtime: ~2–4 hours.
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5. Train and validate the model
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bashpython scripts/final_mlp_embedding_model.py
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python scripts/lpocv_validation.py
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Trains the MLP classifier and runs leave-protein-out cross-validation. StandardScaler and PCA are fitted exclusively on the training fold — no test-set leakage.
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6. Baseline model comparison
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bashpython scripts/model_comparison_features_vs_esm2.py
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python scripts/train_baseline_classical_model.py
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Evaluates logistic regression and random forest baselines on the same feature set under the same LPOCV framework.
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Model Architecture
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ComponentDetailsInput features173 (128 PCA-reduced embedding dimensions + 45 biophysical)ArchitectureMLP: Input → 256 → 128 → 1 (sigmoid)ActivationReLU + Dropout (0.3, 0.2)OptimizerAdam (lr = 0.001, weight decay = 1×10⁻⁴)LossBinary cross-entropyEpochs30–50ValidationLeave-protein-out cross-validationPreprocessingStandardScaler + PCA fitted on training fold only
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Baseline comparison
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ModelAUC–ROCLogistic Regression + ESM-20.864Random Forest + ESM-20.882MLP + ESM-2 (proposed)0.899
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Dataset
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PropertyValueTotal variants11,928Pathogenic / likely pathogenic6,882 (57.7%)Benign / likely benign5,046 (42.3%)Proteins639SourceClinVar release 2024/12Protein sequencesUniProt release 2024_05Mitochondrial annotationMitoCarta 3.0 + OMIM
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The frozen dataset (data/frozen/) is MD5-checksummed for reproducibility.
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Benchmarking
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ToolN variantsAUC–ROCAUC–PROur model (MLP + ESM-2)11,7630.8990.923AlphaMissense11,2320.9420.954PolyPhen-27,3040.8450.799SIFT6,9970.8260.749
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AlphaMissense scores retrieved from the public bulk file (AlphaMissense_hg38.tsv.gz). PolyPhen-2 and SIFT scores retrieved via the UniProt Proteins variation API.
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Data Availability
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Raw data sources:
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ClinVar: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/clinvar/
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UniProt: https://www.uniprot.org/
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MitoCarta 3.0: https://www.broadinstitute.org/mitocarta
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DisProt: https://disprot.org/
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MobiDB: https://mobidb.org/
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AlphaMissense scores: https://storage.googleapis.com/dm_alphamissense/AlphaMissense_hg38.tsv.gz
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Processed datasets and model checkpoints are available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author.
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Citation
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Mechanistically informed machine learning for pathogenicity prediction
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---
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license: cc-by-4.0
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language:
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- en
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tags:
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- mitochondrial-variants
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- pathogenicity-prediction
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- protein-language-model
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- ESM-2
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- machine-learning
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- bioinformatics
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pretty_name: IDP Pathogenicity Model – Mitochondrial Missense Variants
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size_categories:
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- 10K < n < 100K
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# IDP Pathogenicity Model
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**Mechanistically Informed Prediction of Pathogenicity for Mitochondrial Missense Variants**
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> Harrizi S., Nait Idraha I., Mostafa K., Arnoult D.
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> Submitted to *Bioinformatics* (2025)
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This repository / model card describes a hybrid machine-learning classifier that predicts the pathogenicity of **missense variants** in **mitochondrial proteins**.
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The model combines **ESM-2** (t33_650M_UR50D) protein language model embeddings with 45 carefully designed **biophysical and mitochondrial-specific features**, and is trained under strict **leave-protein-out cross-validation** to minimize data leakage.
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## Key Performance (Leave-Protein-Out CV)
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| Model | AUC–ROC | AUC–PR |
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|------------------------------------|---------|--------|
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| **Our model (MLP + ESM-2 + features)** | **0.899** | **0.923** |
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| Random Forest + ESM-2 | 0.882 | — |
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| Logistic Regression + ESM-2 | 0.864 | — |
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| AlphaMissense | 0.942 | 0.954 |
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| PolyPhen-2 | 0.845 | 0.799 |
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| SIFT | 0.826 | 0.749 |
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*All tools evaluated on the same ClinVar mitochondrial missense set under leave-protein-out protocol.*
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## Model Inputs
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- **ESM-2 embeddings** — global protein embedding + local window (±15 residues)
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- **45 biophysical features** — conservation, disorder (DisProt/MobiDB), AlphaFold pLDDT, charge changes, hydrophobicity, mitochondrial-specific annotations, etc.
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Final input dimensionality after PCA: **173 features** (128 PCA-reduced ESM dimensions + 45 classical features)
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## Architecture
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Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)
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| Layer | Units | Activation | Regularization |
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|----------------|-------|------------|--------------------|
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| Input | 173 | — | — |
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| Hidden 1 | 256 | ReLU | Dropout 0.3 |
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| Hidden 2 | 128 | ReLU | Dropout 0.2 |
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| Output | 1 | Sigmoid | — |
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- Optimizer: Adam (lr=0.001, weight decay=1e-4)
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- Loss: Binary Cross-Entropy
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- Preprocessing: StandardScaler + PCA (fitted only on train fold)
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- Training epochs: 30–50 (early stopping used)
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## Dataset Summary
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- **Total variants**: 11,928 ClinVar missense variants (release 2024/12)
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- **Pathogenic / likely pathogenic**: 6,882 (57.7%)
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- **Benign / likely benign**: 5,046 (42.3%)
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- **Mitochondrial proteins**: 639 (MitoCarta 3.0 + OMIM filtering)
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- Sequence source: UniProt 2024_05
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- Frozen & MD5-versioned dataset available in `data/frozen/`
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## Repository Structure (main folders)
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IDP-Pathogenicity-Model/
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├── data/ # raw, processed & frozen datasets
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├── embeddings/ # precomputed ESM-2 embeddings (.npy, .pkl)
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├── features/ # extracted biophysical features
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├── models/ # trained checkpoints (joblib/pkl)
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├── results/ # LPOCV predictions, feature importances, etc.
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├── scripts/ # full reproducible pipeline
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└── configs/ # YAML configuration files
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## Quick Start – Inference (once model is uploaded)
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```python
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import joblib
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import torch
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from fair_esm import pretrained
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model = joblib.load("pathogenicity_classifier_v2.pkl")
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esm_model, alphabet = pretrained.load_model_and_alphabet("esm2_t33_650M_UR50D")
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# Example: get prediction for one variant
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# (you need to prepare the 173-dim feature vector yourself)
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prob = model.predict_proba(features)[0, 1] # pathogenic probability
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Full inference pipeline coming soon (feature extraction + ESM inference + prediction in one script).
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Reproducing the Experiments
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See detailed steps in the original README:
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data_download.py
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build_clinvar_mito_dataset.py + build_mutation_dataset.py
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phase1_freeze_and_classical_features.py
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esm2_t33_650M_UR50D.py (GPU heavy – ~2–4 h)
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final_mlp_embedding_model.py + lpocv_validation.py
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Limitations & Notes
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Model optimized specifically for mitochondrial proteins — performance on nuclear proteins is not guaranteed
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AlphaMissense remains stronger on general proteins (0.942 vs 0.899), but our model is competitive while using far fewer parameters and incorporating explicit mitochondrial biology
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Strict leave-protein-out CV was used → realistic generalization to unseen proteins
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Citation
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bibtex@article{harrizi2025mechanistically,
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title = {Mechanistically informed machine learning for pathogenicity prediction of mitochondrial missense variants},
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author = {Harrizi, Saad and Nait Idraha, Imane and Mostafa, Kabine and Arnoult, Damien},
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journal = {Bioinformatics},
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year = {2025},
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note = {Submitted}
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}
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Authors & Contact
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Saad Harrizi (main developer) – Université Hassan II de Casablanca – saadharrizi0@gmail.com
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Damien Arnoult (corresponding) – INSERM, Paris – damien.arnoult@inserm.fr
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We welcome feedback, questions, and potential collaborations.
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