id
stringlengths
9
16
title
stringlengths
4
278
categories
stringlengths
5
104
abstract
stringlengths
6
4.09k
1301.3535
Airport Gate Scheduling for Passengers, Aircraft, and Operation
cs.SY cs.AI
Passengers' experience is becoming a key metric to evaluate the air transportation system's performance. Efficient and robust tools to handle airport operations are needed along with a better understanding of passengers' interests and concerns. Among various airport operations, this paper studies airport gate scheduling for improved passengers' experience. Three objectives accounting for passengers, aircraft, and operation are presented. Trade-offs between these objectives are analyzed, and a balancing objective function is proposed. The results show that the balanced objective can improve the efficiency of traffic flow in passenger terminals and on ramps, as well as the robustness of gate operations.
1301.3537
Learning Stable Group Invariant Representations with Convolutional Networks
cs.AI math.NA
Transformation groups, such as translations or rotations, effectively express part of the variability observed in many recognition problems. The group structure enables the construction of invariant signal representations with appealing mathematical properties, where convolutions, together with pooling operators, bring stability to additive and geometric perturbations of the input. Whereas physical transformation groups are ubiquitous in image and audio applications, they do not account for all the variability of complex signal classes. We show that the invariance properties built by deep convolutional networks can be cast as a form of stable group invariance. The network wiring architecture determines the invariance group, while the trainable filter coefficients characterize the group action. We give explanatory examples which illustrate how the network architecture controls the resulting invariance group. We also explore the principle by which additional convolutional layers induce a group factorization enabling more abstract, powerful invariant representations.
1301.3539
Learning Features with Structure-Adapting Multi-view Exponential Family Harmoniums
cs.LG
We proposea graphical model for multi-view feature extraction that automatically adapts its structure to achieve better representation of data distribution. The proposed model, structure-adapting multi-view harmonium (SA-MVH) has switch parameters that control the connection between hidden nodes and input views, and learn the switch parameter while training. Numerical experiments on synthetic and a real-world dataset demonstrate the useful behavior of the SA-MVH, compared to existing multi-view feature extraction methods.
1301.3541
Deep Predictive Coding Networks
cs.LG cs.CV stat.ML
The quality of data representation in deep learning methods is directly related to the prior model imposed on the representations; however, generally used fixed priors are not capable of adjusting to the context in the data. To address this issue, we propose deep predictive coding networks, a hierarchical generative model that empirically alters priors on the latent representations in a dynamic and context-sensitive manner. This model captures the temporal dependencies in time-varying signals and uses top-down information to modulate the representation in lower layers. The centerpiece of our model is a novel procedure to infer sparse states of a dynamic model which is used for feature extraction. We also extend this feature extraction block to introduce a pooling function that captures locally invariant representations. When applied on a natural video data, we show that our method is able to learn high-level visual features. We also demonstrate the role of the top-down connections by showing the robustness of the proposed model to structured noise.
1301.3545
Metric-Free Natural Gradient for Joint-Training of Boltzmann Machines
cs.LG cs.NE stat.ML
This paper introduces the Metric-Free Natural Gradient (MFNG) algorithm for training Boltzmann Machines. Similar in spirit to the Hessian-Free method of Martens [8], our algorithm belongs to the family of truncated Newton methods and exploits an efficient matrix-vector product to avoid explicitely storing the natural gradient metric $L$. This metric is shown to be the expected second derivative of the log-partition function (under the model distribution), or equivalently, the variance of the vector of partial derivatives of the energy function. We evaluate our method on the task of joint-training a 3-layer Deep Boltzmann Machine and show that MFNG does indeed have faster per-epoch convergence compared to Stochastic Maximum Likelihood with centering, though wall-clock performance is currently not competitive.
1301.3547
A Rhetorical Analysis Approach to Natural Language Processing
cs.CL stat.ML
The goal of this research was to find a way to extend the capabilities of computers through the processing of language in a more human way, and present applications which demonstrate the power of this method. This research presents a novel approach, Rhetorical Analysis, to solving problems in Natural Language Processing (NLP). The main benefit of Rhetorical Analysis, as opposed to previous approaches, is that it does not require the accumulation of large sets of training data, but can be used to solve a multitude of problems within the field of NLP. The NLP problems investigated with Rhetorical Analysis were the Author Identification problem - predicting the author of a piece of text based on its rhetorical strategies, Election Prediction - predicting the winner of a presidential candidate's re-election campaign based on rhetorical strategies within that president's inaugural address, Natural Language Generation - having a computer produce text containing rhetorical strategies, and Document Summarization. The results of this research indicate that an Author Identification system based on Rhetorical Analysis could predict the correct author 100% of the time, that a re-election predictor based on Rhetorical Analysis could predict the correct winner of a re-election campaign 55% of the time, that a Natural Language Generation system based on Rhetorical Analysis could output text with up to 87.3% similarity to Shakespeare in style, and that a Document Summarization system based on Rhetorical Analysis could extract highly relevant sentences. Overall, this study demonstrated that Rhetorical Analysis could be a useful approach to solving problems in NLP.
1301.3551
Information Theoretic Learning with Infinitely Divisible Kernels
cs.LG cs.CV
In this paper, we develop a framework for information theoretic learning based on infinitely divisible matrices. We formulate an entropy-like functional on positive definite matrices based on Renyi's axiomatic definition of entropy and examine some key properties of this functional that lead to the concept of infinite divisibility. The proposed formulation avoids the plug in estimation of density and brings along the representation power of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. As an application example, we derive a supervised metric learning algorithm using a matrix based analogue to conditional entropy achieving results comparable with the state of the art.
1301.3552
Negative Imaginary Systems Theory in the Robust Control of Highly Resonant Flexible Structures
cs.SY math.OC
This paper covers recent developments in the theory of negative imaginary systems and their application to the control of highly resonant flexible structures. The theory of negative imaginary systems arose out of a desire to unify a number of classical methods for the control of lightly damped structures with collocated force actuators and position sensors including positive position feedback and integral force feedback. The key result is a stability result which shows why these methods are guaranteed to yield robust closed loop stability in the face of unmodelled spillover dynamics. Related results to be presented connect the theory of negative imaginary systems to positive real systems theory and a negative imaginary lemma has been established which is analogous to the positive real lemma. The paper also presents recent controller synthesis results based on the theory of negative imaginary systems.
1301.3557
Stochastic Pooling for Regularization of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
cs.LG cs.NE stat.ML
We introduce a simple and effective method for regularizing large convolutional neural networks. We replace the conventional deterministic pooling operations with a stochastic procedure, randomly picking the activation within each pooling region according to a multinomial distribution, given by the activities within the pooling region. The approach is hyper-parameter free and can be combined with other regularization approaches, such as dropout and data augmentation. We achieve state-of-the-art performance on four image datasets, relative to other approaches that do not utilize data augmentation.
1301.3560
Complexity of Representation and Inference in Compositional Models with Part Sharing
cs.CV
This paper describes serial and parallel compositional models of multiple objects with part sharing. Objects are built by part-subpart compositions and expressed in terms of a hierarchical dictionary of object parts. These parts are represented on lattices of decreasing sizes which yield an executive summary description. We describe inference and learning algorithms for these models. We analyze the complexity of this model in terms of computation time (for serial computers) and numbers of nodes (e.g., "neurons") for parallel computers. In particular, we compute the complexity gains by part sharing and its dependence on how the dictionary scales with the level of the hierarchy. We explore three regimes of scaling behavior where the dictionary size (i) increases exponentially with the level, (ii) is determined by an unsupervised compositional learning algorithm applied to real data, (iii) decreases exponentially with scale. This analysis shows that in some regimes the use of shared parts enables algorithms which can perform inference in time linear in the number of levels for an exponential number of objects. In other regimes part sharing has little advantage for serial computers but can give linear processing on parallel computers.
1301.3568
Joint Training Deep Boltzmann Machines for Classification
stat.ML cs.LG
We introduce a new method for training deep Boltzmann machines jointly. Prior methods of training DBMs require an initial learning pass that trains the model greedily, one layer at a time, or do not perform well on classification tasks. In our approach, we train all layers of the DBM simultaneously, using a novel training procedure called multi-prediction training. The resulting model can either be interpreted as a single generative model trained to maximize a variational approximation to the generalized pseudolikelihood, or as a family of recurrent networks that share parameters and may be approximately averaged together using a novel technique we call the multi-inference trick. We show that our approach performs competitively for classification and outperforms previous methods in terms of accuracy of approximate inference and classification with missing inputs.
1301.3572
Indoor Semantic Segmentation using depth information
cs.CV
This work addresses multi-class segmentation of indoor scenes with RGB-D inputs. While this area of research has gained much attention recently, most works still rely on hand-crafted features. In contrast, we apply a multiscale convolutional network to learn features directly from the images and the depth information. We obtain state-of-the-art on the NYU-v2 depth dataset with an accuracy of 64.5%. We illustrate the labeling of indoor scenes in videos sequences that could be processed in real-time using appropriate hardware such as an FPGA.
1301.3575
Kernelized Locality-Sensitive Hashing for Semi-Supervised Agglomerative Clustering
cs.LG cs.CV stat.ML
Large scale agglomerative clustering is hindered by computational burdens. We propose a novel scheme where exact inter-instance distance calculation is replaced by the Hamming distance between Kernelized Locality-Sensitive Hashing (KLSH) hashed values. This results in a method that drastically decreases computation time. Additionally, we take advantage of certain labeled data points via distance metric learning to achieve a competitive precision and recall comparing to K-Means but in much less computation time.
1301.3577
Saturating Auto-Encoders
cs.LG
We introduce a simple new regularizer for auto-encoders whose hidden-unit activation functions contain at least one zero-gradient (saturated) region. This regularizer explicitly encourages activations in the saturated region(s) of the corresponding activation function. We call these Saturating Auto-Encoders (SATAE). We show that the saturation regularizer explicitly limits the SATAE's ability to reconstruct inputs which are not near the data manifold. Furthermore, we show that a wide variety of features can be learned when different activation functions are used. Finally, connections are established with the Contractive and Sparse Auto-Encoders.
1301.3578
Cramer-Rao Lower Bound and Information Geometry
cs.IT math.IT
This article focuses on an important piece of work of the world renowned Indian statistician, Calyampudi Radhakrishna Rao. In 1945, C. R. Rao (25 years old then) published a pathbreaking paper, which had a profound impact on subsequent statistical research.
1301.3583
Big Neural Networks Waste Capacity
cs.LG cs.CV
This article exposes the failure of some big neural networks to leverage added capacity to reduce underfitting. Past research suggest diminishing returns when increasing the size of neural networks. Our experiments on ImageNet LSVRC-2010 show that this may be due to the fact there are highly diminishing returns for capacity in terms of training error, leading to underfitting. This suggests that the optimization method - first order gradient descent - fails at this regime. Directly attacking this problem, either through the optimization method or the choices of parametrization, may allow to improve the generalization error on large datasets, for which a large capacity is required.
1301.3584
Revisiting Natural Gradient for Deep Networks
cs.LG cs.NA
We evaluate natural gradient, an algorithm originally proposed in Amari (1997), for learning deep models. The contributions of this paper are as follows. We show the connection between natural gradient and three other recently proposed methods for training deep models: Hessian-Free (Martens, 2010), Krylov Subspace Descent (Vinyals and Povey, 2012) and TONGA (Le Roux et al., 2008). We describe how one can use unlabeled data to improve the generalization error obtained by natural gradient and empirically evaluate the robustness of the algorithm to the ordering of the training set compared to stochastic gradient descent. Finally we extend natural gradient to incorporate second order information alongside the manifold information and provide a benchmark of the new algorithm using a truncated Newton approach for inverting the metric matrix instead of using a diagonal approximation of it.
1301.3590
Tree structured sparse coding on cubes
cs.IT cs.CV math.IT
A brief description of tree structured sparse coding on the binary cube.
1301.3592
Deep Learning for Detecting Robotic Grasps
cs.LG cs.CV cs.RO
We consider the problem of detecting robotic grasps in an RGB-D view of a scene containing objects. In this work, we apply a deep learning approach to solve this problem, which avoids time-consuming hand-design of features. This presents two main challenges. First, we need to evaluate a huge number of candidate grasps. In order to make detection fast, as well as robust, we present a two-step cascaded structure with two deep networks, where the top detections from the first are re-evaluated by the second. The first network has fewer features, is faster to run, and can effectively prune out unlikely candidate grasps. The second, with more features, is slower but has to run only on the top few detections. Second, we need to handle multimodal inputs well, for which we present a method to apply structured regularization on the weights based on multimodal group regularization. We demonstrate that our method outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods in robotic grasp detection, and can be used to successfully execute grasps on two different robotic platforms.
1301.3598
Low-Complexity Scheduling Policies for Achieving Throughput and Asymptotic Delay Optimality in Multi-Channel Wireless Networks
cs.NI cs.IT math.IT
In this paper, we study the scheduling problem for downlink transmission in a multi-channel (e.g., OFDM-based) wireless network. We focus on a single cell, with the aim of developing a unifying framework for designing low-complexity scheduling policies that can provide optimal performance in terms of both throughput and delay. We develop new easy-to-verify sufficient conditions for rate-function delay optimality (in the many-channel many-user asymptotic regime) and throughput optimality (in general non-asymptotic setting), respectively. The sufficient conditions allow us to prove rate-function delay optimality for a class of Oldest Packets First (OPF) policies and throughput optimality for a large class of Maximum Weight in the Fluid limit (MWF) policies, respectively. By exploiting the special features of our carefully chosen sufficient conditions and intelligently combining policies from the classes of OPF and MWF policies, we design hybrid policies that are both rate-function delay-optimal and throughput-optimal with a complexity of $O(n^{2.5} \log n)$, where $n$ is the number of channels or users. Our sufficient condition is also used to show that a previously proposed policy called Delay Weighted Matching (DWM) is rate-function delay-optimal. However, DWM incurs a high complexity of $O(n^5)$. Thus, our approach yields significantly lower complexity than the only previously designed delay and throughput optimal scheduling policy. We also conduct numerical experiments to validate our theoretical results.
1301.3601
Statistical Analysis of Self-Organizing Networks with Biased Cell Association and Interference Avoidance
cs.NI cs.IT math.IT stat.AP
In this work, we assess the viability of heterogeneous networks composed of legacy macrocells which are underlaid with self-organizing picocells. Aiming to improve coverage, cell-edge throughput and overall system capacity, self-organizing solutions, such as range expansion bias, almost blank subframe and distributed antenna systems are considered. Herein, stochastic geometry is used to model network deployments, while higher-order statistics through the cumulants concept is utilized to characterize the probability distribution of the received power and aggregate interference at the user of interest. A compre- hensive analytical framework is introduced to evaluate the performance of such self-organizing networks in terms of outage probability and average channel capacity with respect to the tagged receiver. To conduct our studies, we consider a shadowed fading channel model incorporating log-normal shadowing and Nakagami-m fading. Results show that the analytical framework matches well with numerical results obtained from Monte Carlo simulations. We also observed that by simply using almost blank subframes the aggregate interference at the tagged receiver is reduced by about 12dB. Although more elaborated interference control techniques such as, downlink bitmap and distributed antennas systems become needed, when the density of picocells in the underlaid tier gets high.
1301.3605
Feature Learning in Deep Neural Networks - Studies on Speech Recognition Tasks
cs.LG cs.CL cs.NE eess.AS
Recent studies have shown that deep neural networks (DNNs) perform significantly better than shallow networks and Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) on large vocabulary speech recognition tasks. In this paper, we argue that the improved accuracy achieved by the DNNs is the result of their ability to extract discriminative internal representations that are robust to the many sources of variability in speech signals. We show that these representations become increasingly insensitive to small perturbations in the input with increasing network depth, which leads to better speech recognition performance with deeper networks. We also show that DNNs cannot extrapolate to test samples that are substantially different from the training examples. If the training data are sufficiently representative, however, internal features learned by the DNN are relatively stable with respect to speaker differences, bandwidth differences, and environment distortion. This enables DNN-based recognizers to perform as well or better than state-of-the-art systems based on GMMs or shallow networks without the need for explicit model adaptation or feature normalization.
1301.3614
Joint Space Neural Probabilistic Language Model for Statistical Machine Translation
cs.CL
A neural probabilistic language model (NPLM) provides an idea to achieve the better perplexity than n-gram language model and their smoothed language models. This paper investigates application area in bilingual NLP, specifically Statistical Machine Translation (SMT). We focus on the perspectives that NPLM has potential to open the possibility to complement potentially `huge' monolingual resources into the `resource-constraint' bilingual resources. We introduce an ngram-HMM language model as NPLM using the non-parametric Bayesian construction. In order to facilitate the application to various tasks, we propose the joint space model of ngram-HMM language model. We show an experiment of system combination in the area of SMT. One discovery was that our treatment of noise improved the results 0.20 BLEU points if NPLM is trained in relatively small corpus, in our case 500,000 sentence pairs, which is often the case due to the long training time of NPLM.
1301.3618
Learning New Facts From Knowledge Bases With Neural Tensor Networks and Semantic Word Vectors
cs.CL cs.LG
Knowledge bases provide applications with the benefit of easily accessible, systematic relational knowledge but often suffer in practice from their incompleteness and lack of knowledge of new entities and relations. Much work has focused on building or extending them by finding patterns in large unannotated text corpora. In contrast, here we mainly aim to complete a knowledge base by predicting additional true relationships between entities, based on generalizations that can be discerned in the given knowledgebase. We introduce a neural tensor network (NTN) model which predicts new relationship entries that can be added to the database. This model can be improved by initializing entity representations with word vectors learned in an unsupervised fashion from text, and when doing this, existing relations can even be queried for entities that were not present in the database. Our model generalizes and outperforms existing models for this problem, and can classify unseen relationships in WordNet with an accuracy of 75.8%.
1301.3627
Two SVDs produce more focal deep learning representations
cs.CL cs.LG
A key characteristic of work on deep learning and neural networks in general is that it relies on representations of the input that support generalization, robust inference, domain adaptation and other desirable functionalities. Much recent progress in the field has focused on efficient and effective methods for computing representations. In this paper, we propose an alternative method that is more efficient than prior work and produces representations that have a property we call focality -- a property we hypothesize to be important for neural network representations. The method consists of a simple application of two consecutive SVDs and is inspired by Anandkumar (2012).
1301.3630
Behavior Pattern Recognition using A New Representation Model
cs.LG
We study the use of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) as a tool for the recognition of agents' behavior on the basis of observation of their sequential decision behavior interacting with the environment. We model the problem faced by the agents as a Markov decision process (MDP) and model the observed behavior of the agents in terms of forward planning for the MDP. We use IRL to learn reward functions and then use these reward functions as the basis for clustering or classification models. Experimental studies with GridWorld, a navigation problem, and the secretary problem, an optimal stopping problem, suggest reward vectors found from IRL can be a good basis for behavior pattern recognition problems. Empirical comparisons of our method with several existing IRL algorithms and with direct methods that use feature statistics observed in state-action space suggest it may be superior for recognition problems.
1301.3641
Training Neural Networks with Stochastic Hessian-Free Optimization
cs.LG cs.NE stat.ML
Hessian-free (HF) optimization has been successfully used for training deep autoencoders and recurrent networks. HF uses the conjugate gradient algorithm to construct update directions through curvature-vector products that can be computed on the same order of time as gradients. In this paper we exploit this property and study stochastic HF with gradient and curvature mini-batches independent of the dataset size. We modify Martens' HF for these settings and integrate dropout, a method for preventing co-adaptation of feature detectors, to guard against overfitting. Stochastic Hessian-free optimization gives an intermediary between SGD and HF that achieves competitive performance on both classification and deep autoencoder experiments.
1301.3644
Regularized Discriminant Embedding for Visual Descriptor Learning
cs.CV cs.LG
Images can vary according to changes in viewpoint, resolution, noise, and illumination. In this paper, we aim to learn representations for an image, which are robust to wide changes in such environmental conditions, using training pairs of matching and non-matching local image patches that are collected under various environmental conditions. We present a regularized discriminant analysis that emphasizes two challenging categories among the given training pairs: (1) matching, but far apart pairs and (2) non-matching, but close pairs in the original feature space (e.g., SIFT feature space). Compared to existing work on metric learning and discriminant analysis, our method can better distinguish relevant images from irrelevant, but look-alike images.
1301.3662
Composable security of delegated quantum computation
quant-ph cs.CR cs.IT math.IT
Delegating difficult computations to remote large computation facilities, with appropriate security guarantees, is a possible solution for the ever-growing needs of personal computing power. For delegated computation protocols to be usable in a larger context---or simply to securely run two protocols in parallel---the security definitions need to be composable. Here, we define composable security for delegated quantum computation. We distinguish between protocols which provide only blindness---the computation is hidden from the server---and those that are also verifiable---the client can check that it has received the correct result. We show that the composable security definition capturing both these notions can be reduced to a combination of several distinct "trace-distance-type" criteria---which are, individually, non-composable security definitions. Additionally, we study the security of some known delegated quantum computation protocols, including Broadbent, Fitzsimons and Kashefi's Universal Blind Quantum Computation protocol. Even though these protocols were originally proposed with insufficient security criteria, they turn out to still be secure given the stronger composable definitions.
1301.3666
Zero-Shot Learning Through Cross-Modal Transfer
cs.CV cs.LG
This work introduces a model that can recognize objects in images even if no training data is available for the objects. The only necessary knowledge about the unseen categories comes from unsupervised large text corpora. In our zero-shot framework distributional information in language can be seen as spanning a semantic basis for understanding what objects look like. Most previous zero-shot learning models can only differentiate between unseen classes. In contrast, our model can both obtain state of the art performance on classes that have thousands of training images and obtain reasonable performance on unseen classes. This is achieved by first using outlier detection in the semantic space and then two separate recognition models. Furthermore, our model does not require any manually defined semantic features for either words or images.
1301.3676
Duality and Network Theory in Passivity-based Cooperative Control
math.OC cs.SY
This paper presents a class of passivity-based cooperative control problems that have an explicit connection to convex network optimization problems. The new notion of maximal equilibrium independent passivity is introduced and it is shown that networks of systems possessing this property asymptotically approach the solutions of a dual pair of network optimization problems, namely an optimal potential and an optimal flow problem. This connection leads to an interpretation of the dynamic variables, such as system inputs and outputs, to variables in a network optimization framework, such as divergences and potentials, and reveals that several duality relations known in convex network optimization theory translate directly to passivity-based cooperative control problems. The presented results establish a strong and explicit connection between passivity-based cooperative control theory on the one side and network optimization theory on the other, and they provide a unifying framework for network analysis and optimal design. The results are illustrated on a nonlinear traffic dynamics model that is shown to be asymptotically clustering.
1301.3683
Convex Variational Image Restoration with Histogram Priors
math.OC cs.CV
We present a novel variational approach to image restoration (e.g., denoising, inpainting, labeling) that enables to complement established variational approaches with a histogram-based prior enforcing closeness of the solution to some given empirical measure. By minimizing a single objective function, the approach utilizes simultaneously two quite different sources of information for restoration: spatial context in terms of some smoothness prior and non-spatial statistics in terms of the novel prior utilizing the Wasserstein distance between probability measures. We study the combination of the functional lifting technique with two different relaxations of the histogram prior and derive a jointly convex variational approach. Mathematical equivalence of both relaxations is established and cases where optimality holds are discussed. Additionally, we present an efficient algorithmic scheme for the numerical treatment of the presented model. Experiments using the basic total-variation based denoising approach as a case study demonstrate our novel regularization approach.
1301.3698
Modeling human dynamics of face-to-face interaction networks
physics.soc-ph cond-mat.stat-mech cs.SI
Face-to-face interaction networks describe social interactions in human gatherings, and are the substrate for processes such as epidemic spreading and gossip propagation. The bursty nature of human behavior characterizes many aspects of empirical data, such as the distribution of conversation lengths, of conversations per person, or of inter-conversation times. Despite several recent attempts, a general theoretical understanding of the global picture emerging from data is still lacking. Here we present a simple model that reproduces quantitatively most of the relevant features of empirical face-to-face interaction networks. The model describes agents which perform a random walk in a two dimensional space and are characterized by an attractiveness whose effect is to slow down the motion of people around them. The proposed framework sheds light on the dynamics of human interactions and can improve the modeling of dynamical processes taking place on the ensuing dynamical social networks.
1301.3708
Training Sequence Design for MIMO Channels: An Application-Oriented Approach
cs.IT math.IT
In this paper, the problem of training optimization for estimating a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) flat fading channel in the presence of spatially and temporally correlated Gaussian noise is studied in an application-oriented setup. So far, the problem of MIMO channel estimation has mostly been treated within the context of minimizing the mean square error (MSE) of the channel estimate subject to various constraints, such as an upper bound on the available training energy. We introduce a more general framework for the task of training sequence design in MIMO systems, which can treat not only the minimization of channel estimator's MSE, but also the optimization of a final performance metric of interest related to the use of the channel estimate in the communication system. First, we show that the proposed framework can be used to minimize the training energy budget subject to a quality constraint on the MSE of the channel estimator. A deterministic version of the "dual" problem is also provided. We then focus on four specific applications, where the training sequence can be optimized with respect to the classical channel estimation MSE, a weighted channel estimation MSE and the MSE of the equalization error due to the use of an equalizer at the receiver or an appropriate linear precoder at the transmitter. In this way, the intended use of the channel estimate is explicitly accounted for. The superiority of the proposed designs over existing methods is demonstrated via numerical simulations.
1301.3720
The IBMAP approach for Markov networks structure learning
cs.AI cs.LG
In this work we consider the problem of learning the structure of Markov networks from data. We present an approach for tackling this problem called IBMAP, together with an efficient instantiation of the approach: the IBMAP-HC algorithm, designed for avoiding important limitations of existing independence-based algorithms. These algorithms proceed by performing statistical independence tests on data, trusting completely the outcome of each test. In practice tests may be incorrect, resulting in potential cascading errors and the consequent reduction in the quality of the structures learned. IBMAP contemplates this uncertainty in the outcome of the tests through a probabilistic maximum-a-posteriori approach. The approach is instantiated in the IBMAP-HC algorithm, a structure selection strategy that performs a polynomial heuristic local search in the space of possible structures. We present an extensive empirical evaluation on synthetic and real data, showing that our algorithm outperforms significantly the current independence-based algorithms, in terms of data efficiency and quality of learned structures, with equivalent computational complexities. We also show the performance of IBMAP-HC in a real-world application of knowledge discovery: EDAs, which are evolutionary algorithms that use structure learning on each generation for modeling the distribution of populations. The experiments show that when IBMAP-HC is used to learn the structure, EDAs improve the convergence to the optimum.
1301.3753
Switched linear encoding with rectified linear autoencoders
cs.LG
Several recent results in machine learning have established formal connections between autoencoders---artificial neural network models that attempt to reproduce their inputs---and other coding models like sparse coding and K-means. This paper explores in depth an autoencoder model that is constructed using rectified linear activations on its hidden units. Our analysis builds on recent results to further unify the world of sparse linear coding models. We provide an intuitive interpretation of the behavior of these coding models and demonstrate this intuition using small, artificial datasets with known distributions.
1301.3755
Gradient Driven Learning for Pooling in Visual Pipeline Feature Extraction Models
cs.CV
Hyper-parameter selection remains a daunting task when building a pattern recognition architecture which performs well, particularly in recently constructed visual pipeline models for feature extraction. We re-formulate pooling in an existing pipeline as a function of adjustable pooling map weight parameters and propose the use of supervised error signals from gradient descent to tune the established maps within the model. This technique allows us to learn what would otherwise be a design choice within the model and specialize the maps to aggregate areas of invariance for the task presented. Preliminary results show moderate potential gains in classification accuracy and highlight areas of importance within the intermediate feature representation space.
1301.3758
Mutual Localization: Two Camera Relative 6-DOF Pose Estimation from Reciprocal Fiducial Observation
cs.RO
Concurrently estimating the 6-DOF pose of multiple cameras or robots---cooperative localization---is a core problem in contemporary robotics. Current works focus on a set of mutually observable world landmarks and often require inbuilt egomotion estimates; situations in which both assumptions are violated often arise, for example, robots with erroneous low quality odometry and IMU exploring an unknown environment. In contrast to these existing works in cooperative localization, we propose a cooperative localization method, which we call mutual localization, that uses reciprocal observations of camera-fiducials to obviate the need for egomotion estimates and mutually observable world landmarks. We formulate and solve an algebraic formulation for the pose of the two camera mutual localization setup under these assumptions. Our experiments demonstrate the capabilities of our proposal egomotion-free cooperative localization method: for example, the method achieves 2cm range and 0.7 degree accuracy at 2m sensing for 6-DOF pose. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed work, we deploy our method on Turtlebots and we compare our results with ARToolKit and Bundler, over which our method achieves a 10 fold improvement in translation estimation accuracy.
1301.3764
Adaptive learning rates and parallelization for stochastic, sparse, non-smooth gradients
cs.LG cs.AI stat.ML
Recent work has established an empirically successful framework for adapting learning rates for stochastic gradient descent (SGD). This effectively removes all needs for tuning, while automatically reducing learning rates over time on stationary problems, and permitting learning rates to grow appropriately in non-stationary tasks. Here, we extend the idea in three directions, addressing proper minibatch parallelization, including reweighted updates for sparse or orthogonal gradients, improving robustness on non-smooth loss functions, in the process replacing the diagonal Hessian estimation procedure that may not always be available by a robust finite-difference approximation. The final algorithm integrates all these components, has linear complexity and is hyper-parameter free.
1301.3775
Discriminative Recurrent Sparse Auto-Encoders
cs.LG cs.CV
We present the discriminative recurrent sparse auto-encoder model, comprising a recurrent encoder of rectified linear units, unrolled for a fixed number of iterations, and connected to two linear decoders that reconstruct the input and predict its supervised classification. Training via backpropagation-through-time initially minimizes an unsupervised sparse reconstruction error; the loss function is then augmented with a discriminative term on the supervised classification. The depth implicit in the temporally-unrolled form allows the system to exhibit all the power of deep networks, while substantially reducing the number of trainable parameters. From an initially unstructured network the hidden units differentiate into categorical-units, each of which represents an input prototype with a well-defined class; and part-units representing deformations of these prototypes. The learned organization of the recurrent encoder is hierarchical: part-units are driven directly by the input, whereas the activity of categorical-units builds up over time through interactions with the part-units. Even using a small number of hidden units per layer, discriminative recurrent sparse auto-encoders achieve excellent performance on MNIST.
1301.3781
Efficient Estimation of Word Representations in Vector Space
cs.CL
We propose two novel model architectures for computing continuous vector representations of words from very large data sets. The quality of these representations is measured in a word similarity task, and the results are compared to the previously best performing techniques based on different types of neural networks. We observe large improvements in accuracy at much lower computational cost, i.e. it takes less than a day to learn high quality word vectors from a 1.6 billion words data set. Furthermore, we show that these vectors provide state-of-the-art performance on our test set for measuring syntactic and semantic word similarities.
1301.3784
Asymptotic Consensus Without Self-Confidence
math.DS cs.SY
This paper studies asymptotic consensus in systems in which agents do not necessarily have self-confidence, i.e., may disregard their own value during execution of the update rule. We show that the prevalent hypothesis of self-confidence in many convergence results can be replaced by the existence of aperiodic cores. These are stable aperiodic subgraphs, which allow to virtually store information about an agent's value distributedly in the network. Our results are applicable to systems with message delays and memory loss.
1301.3791
XORing Elephants: Novel Erasure Codes for Big Data
cs.IT cs.DC cs.NI math.IT
Distributed storage systems for large clusters typically use replication to provide reliability. Recently, erasure codes have been used to reduce the large storage overhead of three-replicated systems. Reed-Solomon codes are the standard design choice and their high repair cost is often considered an unavoidable price to pay for high storage efficiency and high reliability. This paper shows how to overcome this limitation. We present a novel family of erasure codes that are efficiently repairable and offer higher reliability compared to Reed-Solomon codes. We show analytically that our codes are optimal on a recently identified tradeoff between locality and minimum distance. We implement our new codes in Hadoop HDFS and compare to a currently deployed HDFS module that uses Reed-Solomon codes. Our modified HDFS implementation shows a reduction of approximately 2x on the repair disk I/O and repair network traffic. The disadvantage of the new coding scheme is that it requires 14% more storage compared to Reed-Solomon codes, an overhead shown to be information theoretically optimal to obtain locality. Because the new codes repair failures faster, this provides higher reliability, which is orders of magnitude higher compared to replication.
1301.3816
Learning Output Kernels for Multi-Task Problems
cs.LG
Simultaneously solving multiple related learning tasks is beneficial under a variety of circumstances, but the prior knowledge necessary to correctly model task relationships is rarely available in practice. In this paper, we develop a novel kernel-based multi-task learning technique that automatically reveals structural inter-task relationships. Building over the framework of output kernel learning (OKL), we introduce a method that jointly learns multiple functions and a low-rank multi-task kernel by solving a non-convex regularization problem. Optimization is carried out via a block coordinate descent strategy, where each subproblem is solved using suitable conjugate gradient (CG) type iterative methods for linear operator equations. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on pharmacological and collaborative filtering data.
1301.3832
A Complete Calculus for Possibilistic Logic Programming with Fuzzy Propositional Variables
cs.AI
In this paper we present a propositional logic programming language for reasoning under possibilistic uncertainty and representing vague knowledge. Formulas are represented by pairs (A, c), where A is a many-valued proposition and c is value in the unit interval [0,1] which denotes a lower bound on the belief on A in terms of necessity measures. Belief states are modeled by possibility distributions on the set of all many-valued interpretations. In this framework, (i) we define a syntax and a semantics of the general underlying uncertainty logic; (ii) we provide a modus ponens-style calculus for a sublanguage of Horn-rules and we prove that it is complete for determining the maximum degree of possibilistic belief with which a fuzzy propositional variable can be entailed from a set of formulas; and finally, (iii) we show how the computation of a partial matching between fuzzy propositional variables, in terms of necessity measures for fuzzy sets, can be included in our logic programming system.
1301.3833
Reversible Jump MCMC Simulated Annealing for Neural Networks
cs.LG cs.NE stat.ML
We propose a novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulated annealing algorithm to optimize radial basis function (RBF) networks. This algorithm enables us to maximize the joint posterior distribution of the network parameters and the number of basis functions. It performs a global search in the joint space of the parameters and number of parameters, thereby surmounting the problem of local minima. We also show that by calibrating a Bayesian model, we can obtain the classical AIC, BIC and MDL model selection criteria within a penalized likelihood framework. Finally, we show theoretically and empirically that the algorithm converges to the modes of the full posterior distribution in an efficient way.
1301.3834
Perfect Tree-Like Markovian Distributions
cs.AI
We show that if a strictly positive joint probability distribution for a set of binary random variables factors according to a tree, then vertex separation represents all and only the independence relations enclosed in the distribution. The same result is shown to hold also for multivariate strictly positive normal distributions. Our proof uses a new property of conditional independence that holds for these two classes of probability distributions.
1301.3835
A Principled Analysis of Merging Operations in Possibilistic Logic
cs.AI
Possibilistic logic offers a qualitative framework for representing pieces of information associated with levels of uncertainty of priority. The fusion of multiple sources information is discussed in this setting. Different classes of merging operators are considered including conjunctive, disjunctive, reinforcement, adaptive and averaging operators. Then we propose to analyse these classes in terms of postulates. This is done by first extending the postulate for merging classical bases to the case where priorites are avaialbe.
1301.3836
The Complexity of Decentralized Control of Markov Decision Processes
cs.AI
Planning for distributed agents with partial state information is considered from a decision- theoretic perspective. We describe generalizations of both the MDP and POMDP models that allow for decentralized control. For even a small number of agents, the finite-horizon problems corresponding to both of our models are complete for nondeterministic exponential time. These complexity results illustrate a fundamental difference between centralized and decentralized control of Markov processes. In contrast to the MDP and POMDP problems, the problems we consider provably do not admit polynomial-time algorithms and most likely require doubly exponential time to solve in the worst case. We have thus provided mathematical evidence corresponding to the intuition that decentralized planning problems cannot easily be reduced to centralized problems and solved exactly using established techniques.
1301.3837
Dynamic Bayesian Multinets
cs.LG cs.AI stat.ML
In this work, dynamic Bayesian multinets are introduced where a Markov chain state at time t determines conditional independence patterns between random variables lying within a local time window surrounding t. It is shown how information-theoretic criterion functions can be used to induce sparse, discriminative, and class-conditional network structures that yield an optimal approximation to the class posterior probability, and therefore are useful for the classification task. Using a new structure learning heuristic, the resulting models are tested on a medium-vocabulary isolated-word speech recognition task. It is demonstrated that these discriminatively structured dynamic Bayesian multinets, when trained in a maximum likelihood setting using EM, can outperform both HMMs and other dynamic Bayesian networks with a similar number of parameters.
1301.3838
Variational Relevance Vector Machines
cs.LG stat.ML
The Support Vector Machine (SVM) of Vapnik (1998) has become widely established as one of the leading approaches to pattern recognition and machine learning. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions centred on a subset of the training data, known as support vectors. Despite its widespread success, the SVM suffers from some important limitations, one of the most significant being that it makes point predictions rather than generating predictive distributions. Recently Tipping (1999) has formulated the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), a probabilistic model whose functional form is equivalent to the SVM. It achieves comparable recognition accuracy to the SVM, yet provides a full predictive distribution, and also requires substantially fewer kernel functions. The original treatment of the RVM relied on the use of type II maximum likelihood (the `evidence framework') to provide point estimates of the hyperparameters which govern model sparsity. In this paper we show how the RVM can be formulated and solved within a completely Bayesian paradigm through the use of variational inference, thereby giving a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. We demonstrate the practicality and performance of the variational RVM using both synthetic and real world examples.
1301.3839
Approximately Optimal Monitoring of Plan Preconditions
cs.AI
Monitoring plan preconditions can allow for replanning when a precondition fails, generally far in advance of the point in the plan where the precondition is relevant. However, monitoring is generally costly, and some precondition failures have a very small impact on plan quality. We formulate a model for optimal precondition monitoring, using partially-observable Markov decisions processes, and describe methods for solving this model efficitively, though approximately. Specifically, we show that the single-precondition monitoring problem is generally tractable, and the multiple-precondition monitoring policies can be efficitively approximated using single-precondition soultions.
1301.3840
Utilities as Random Variables: Density Estimation and Structure Discovery
cs.AI cs.LG
Decision theory does not traditionally include uncertainty over utility functions. We argue that the a person's utility value for a given outcome can be treated as we treat other domain attributes: as a random variable with a density function over its possible values. We show that we can apply statistical density estimation techniques to learn such a density function from a database of partially elicited utility functions. In particular, we define a Bayesian learning framework for this problem, assuming the distribution over utilities is a mixture of Gaussians, where the mixture components represent statistically coherent subpopulations. We can also extend our techniques to the problem of discovering generalized additivity structure in the utility functions in the population. We define a Bayesian model selection criterion for utility function structure and a search procedure over structures. The factorization of the utilities in the learned model, and the generalization obtained from density estimation, allows us to provide robust estimates of utilities using a significantly smaller number of utility elicitation questions. We experiment with our technique on synthetic utility data and on a real database of utility functions in the domain of prenatal diagnosis.
1301.3841
Computational Investigation of Low-Discrepancy Sequences in Simulation Algorithms for Bayesian Networks
cs.AI
Monte Carlo sampling has become a major vehicle for approximate inference in Bayesian networks. In this paper, we investigate a family of related simulation approaches, known collectively as quasi-Monte Carlo methods based on deterministic low-discrepancy sequences. We first outline several theoretical aspects of deterministic low-discrepancy sequences, show three examples of such sequences, and then discuss practical issues related to applying them to belief updating in Bayesian networks. We propose an algorithm for selecting direction numbers for Sobol sequence. Our experimental results show that low-discrepancy sequences (especially Sobol sequence) significantly improve the performance of simulation algorithms in Bayesian networks compared to Monte Carlo sampling.
1301.3842
A Decision Theoretic Approach to Targeted Advertising
cs.AI
A simple advertising strategy that can be used to help increase sales of a product is to mail out special offers to selected potential customers. Because there is a cost associated with sending each offer, the optimal mailing strategy depends on both the benefit obtained from a purchase and how the offer affects the buying behavior of the customers. In this paper, we describe two methods for partitioning the potential customers into groups, and show how to perform a simple cost-benefit analysis to decide which, if any, of the groups should be targeted. In particular, we consider two decision-tree learning algorithms. The first is an "off the shelf" algorithm used to model the probability that groups of customers will buy the product. The second is a new algorithm that is similar to the first, except that for each group, it explicitly models the probability of purchase under the two mailing scenarios: (1) the mail is sent to members of that group and (2) the mail is not sent to members of that group. Using data from a real-world advertising experiment, we compare the algorithms to each other and to a naive mail-to-all strategy.
1301.3843
Bayesian Classification and Feature Selection from Finite Data Sets
cs.LG stat.ML
Feature selection aims to select the smallest subset of features for a specified level of performance. The optimal achievable classification performance on a feature subset is summarized by its Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). When infinite data is available, the Neyman- Pearson (NP) design procedure provides the most efficient way of obtaining this curve. In practice the design procedure is applied to density estimates from finite data sets. We perform a detailed statistical analysis of the resulting error propagation on finite alphabets. We show that the estimated performance curve (EPC) produced by the design procedure is arbitrarily accurate given sufficient data, independent of the size of the feature set. However, the underlying likelihood ranking procedure is highly sensitive to errors that reduces the probability that the EPC is in fact the ROC. In the worst case, guaranteeing that the EPC is equal to the ROC may require data sizes exponential in the size of the feature set. These results imply that in theory the NP design approach may only be valid for characterizing relatively small feature subsets, even when the performance of any given classifier can be estimated very accurately. We discuss the practical limitations for on-line methods that ensures that the NP procedure operates in a statistically valid region.
1301.3844
A Bayesian Method for Causal Modeling and Discovery Under Selection
cs.AI
This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and case-control data in which a fixed number of samples with and without some condition is collected; such data are not uncommon. The paper describes a method for combining data under selection with prior beliefs in order to derive a posterior probability for a model of the causal processes that are generating the data in the population of interest. The priors include beliefs about the nature of the non-random sampling procedure. Although exact application of the method would be computationally intractable for most realistic datasets, efficient special-case and approximation methods are discussed. Finally, the paper describes how to combine learning under selection with previous methods for learning from observational and experimental data that are obtained on random samples of the population of interest. The net result is a Bayesian methodology that supports causal modeling and discovery from a rich mixture of different types of data.
1301.3845
Separation Properties of Sets of Probability Measures
cs.AI
This paper analyzes independence concepts for sets of probability measures associated with directed acyclic graphs. The paper shows that epistemic independence and the standard Markov condition violate desirable separation properties. The adoption of a contraction condition leads to d-separation but still fails to guarantee a belief separation property. To overcome this unsatisfactory situation, a strong Markov condition is proposed, based on epistemic independence. The main result is that the strong Markov condition leads to strong independence and does enforce separation properties; this result implies that (1) separation properties of Bayesian networks do extend to epistemic independence and sets of probability measures, and (2) strong independence has a clear justification based on epistemic independence and the strong Markov condition.
1301.3846
Stochastic Logic Programs: Sampling, Inference and Applications
cs.AI
Algorithms for exact and approximate inference in stochastic logic programs (SLPs) are presented, based respectively, on variable elimination and importance sampling. We then show how SLPs can be used to represent prior distributions for machine learning, using (i) logic programs and (ii) Bayes net structures as examples. Drawing on existing work in statistics, we apply the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm to construct a Markov chain which samples from the posterior distribution. A Prolog implementation for this is described. We also discuss the possibility of constructing explicit representations of the posterior.
1301.3847
A Differential Approach to Inference in Bayesian Networks
cs.AI
We present a new approach for inference in Bayesian networks, which is mainly based on partial differentiation. According to this approach, one compiles a Bayesian network into a multivariate polynomial and then computes the partial derivatives of this polynomial with respect to each variable. We show that once such derivatives are made available, one can compute in constant-time answers to a large class of probabilistic queries, which are central to classical inference, parameter estimation, model validation and sensitivity analysis. We present a number of complexity results relating to the compilation of such polynomials and to the computation of their partial derivatives. We argue that the combined simplicity, comprehensiveness and computational complexity of the presented framework is unique among existing frameworks for inference in Bayesian networks.
1301.3848
Any-Space Probabilistic Inference
cs.AI
We have recently introduced an any-space algorithm for exact inference in Bayesian networks, called Recursive Conditioning, RC, which allows one to trade space with time at increments of X-bytes, where X is the number of bytes needed to cache a floating point number. In this paper, we present three key extensions of RC. First, we modify the algorithm so it applies to more general factorization of probability distributions, including (but not limited to) Bayesian network factorizations. Second, we present a forgetting mechanism which reduces the space requirements of RC considerably and then compare such requirmenets with those of variable elimination on a number of realistic networks, showing orders of magnitude improvements in certain cases. Third, we present a version of RC for computing maximum a posteriori hypotheses (MAP), which turns out to be the first MAP algorithm allowing a smooth time-space tradeoff. A key advantage of presented MAP algorithm is that it does not have to start from scratch each time a new query is presented, but can reuse some of its computations across multiple queries, leading to significant savings in ceratain cases.
1301.3849
Experiments with Random Projection
cs.LG stat.ML
Recent theoretical work has identified random projection as a promising dimensionality reduction technique for learning mixtures of Gausians. Here we summarize these results and illustrate them by a wide variety of experiments on synthetic and real data.
1301.3850
A Two-round Variant of EM for Gaussian Mixtures
cs.LG stat.ML
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chosen model will be used in the future for prediction tasks involving more ``focused' predictive distributions. Although focused predictive distributions can be produced from the joint probability distribution by marginalization, in practice the best model in the unsupervised sense does not necessarily perform well in supervised domains. In particular, the standard marginal likelihood score is a criterion for the unsupervised task, and, although frequently used for supervised model selection also, does not perform well in such tasks. In this paper we study the performance of the marginal likelihood score empirically in supervised Bayesian network selection tasks by using a large number of publicly available classification data sets, and compare the results to those obtained by alternative model selection criteria, including empirical crossvalidation methods, an approximation of a supervised marginal likelihood measure, and a supervised version of Dawids prequential(predictive sequential) principle.The results demonstrate that the marginal likelihood score does NOT perform well FOR supervised model selection, WHILE the best results are obtained BY using Dawids prequential r napproach.
1301.3851
Minimum Message Length Clustering Using Gibbs Sampling
cs.LG stat.ML
The K-Mean and EM algorithms are popular in clustering and mixture modeling, due to their simplicity and ease of implementation. However, they have several significant limitations. Both coverage to a local optimum of their respective objective functions (ignoring the uncertainty in the model space), require the apriori specification of the number of classes/clsuters, and are inconsistent. In this work we overcome these limitations by using the Minimum Message Length (MML) principle and a variation to the K-Means/EM observation assignment and parameter calculation scheme. We maintain the simplicity of these approaches while constructing a Bayesian mixture modeling tool that samples/searches the model space using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler known as a Gibbs sampler. Gibbs sampling allows us to visit each model according to its posterior probability. Therefore, if the model space is multi-modal we will visit all models and not get stuck in local optima. We call our approach multiple chains at equilibrium (MCE) MML sampling.
1301.3852
Mix-nets: Factored Mixtures of Gaussians in Bayesian Networks With Mixed Continuous And Discrete Variables
cs.LG cs.AI stat.ML
Recently developed techniques have made it possible to quickly learn accurate probability density functions from data in low-dimensional continuous space. In particular, mixtures of Gaussians can be fitted to data very quickly using an accelerated EM algorithm that employs multiresolution kd-trees (Moore, 1999). In this paper, we propose a kind of Bayesian networks in which low-dimensional mixtures of Gaussians over different subsets of the domain's variables are combined into a coherent joint probability model over the entire domain. The network is also capable of modeling complex dependencies between discrete variables and continuous variables without requiring discretization of the continuous variables. We present efficient heuristic algorithms for automatically learning these networks from data, and perform comparative experiments illustrated how well these networks model real scientific data and synthetic data. We also briefly discuss some possible improvements to the networks, as well as possible applications.
1301.3853
Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filtering for Dynamic Bayesian Networks
cs.LG cs.AI stat.CO
Particle filters (PFs) are powerful sampling-based inference/learning algorithms for dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). They allow us to treat, in a principled way, any type of probability distribution, nonlinearity and non-stationarity. They have appeared in several fields under such names as "condensation", "sequential Monte Carlo" and "survival of the fittest". In this paper, we show how we can exploit the structure of the DBN to increase the efficiency of particle filtering, using a technique known as Rao-Blackwellisation. Essentially, this samples some of the variables, and marginalizes out the rest exactly, using the Kalman filter, HMM filter, junction tree algorithm, or any other finite dimensional optimal filter. We show that Rao-Blackwellised particle filters (RBPFs) lead to more accurate estimates than standard PFs. We demonstrate RBPFs on two problems, namely non-stationary online regression with radial basis function networks and robot localization and map building. We also discuss other potential application areas and provide references to some finite dimensional optimal filters.
1301.3854
Learning Graphical Models of Images, Videos and Their Spatial Transformations
cs.CV cs.LG stat.ML
Mixtures of Gaussians, factor analyzers (probabilistic PCA) and hidden Markov models are staples of static and dynamic data modeling and image and video modeling in particular. We show how topographic transformations in the input, such as translation and shearing in images, can be accounted for in these models by including a discrete transformation variable. The resulting models perform clustering, dimensionality reduction and time-series analysis in a way that is invariant to transformations in the input. Using the EM algorithm, these transformation-invariant models can be fit to static data and time series. We give results on filtering microscopy images, face and facial pose clustering, handwritten digit modeling and recognition, video clustering, object tracking, and removal of distractions from video sequences.
1301.3855
Likelihood Computations Using Value Abstractions
cs.AI
In this paper, we use evidence-specific value abstraction for speeding Bayesian networks inference. This is done by grouping variable values and treating the combined values as a single entity. As we show, such abstractions can exploit regularities in conditional probability distributions and also the specific values of observed variables. To formally justify value abstraction, we define the notion of safe value abstraction and devise inference algorithms that use it to reduce the cost of inference. Our procedure is particularly useful for learning complex networks with many hidden variables. In such cases, repeated likelihood computations are required for EM or other parameter optimization techniques. Since these computations are repeated with respect to the same evidence set, our methods can provide significant speedup to the learning procedure. We demonstrate the algorithm on genetic linkage problems where the use of value abstraction sometimes differentiates between a feasible and non-feasible solution.
1301.3856
Being Bayesian about Network Structure
cs.LG cs.AI stat.ML
In many domains, we are interested in analyzing the structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether one variable is a direct parent of the other. Bayesian model-selection attempts to find the MAP model and use its structure to answer these questions. However, when the amount of available data is modest, there might be many models that have non-negligible posterior. Thus, we want compute the Bayesian posterior of a feature, i.e., the total posterior probability of all models that contain it. In this paper, we propose a new approach for this task. We first show how to efficiently compute a sum over the exponential number of networks that are consistent with a fixed ordering over network variables. This allows us to compute, for a given ordering, both the marginal probability of the data and the posterior of a feature. We then use this result as the basis for an algorithm that approximates the Bayesian posterior of a feature. Our approach uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, but over orderings rather than over network structures. The space of orderings is much smaller and more regular than the space of structures, and has a smoother posterior `landscape'. We present empirical results on synthetic and real-life datasets that compare our approach to full model averaging (when possible), to MCMC over network structures, and to a non-Bayesian bootstrap approach.
1301.3857
Gaussian Process Networks
cs.AI cs.LG stat.ML
In this paper we address the problem of learning the structure of a Bayesian network in domains with continuous variables. This task requires a procedure for comparing different candidate structures. In the Bayesian framework, this is done by evaluating the {em marginal likelihood/} of the data given a candidate structure. This term can be computed in closed-form for standard parametric families (e.g., Gaussians), and can be approximated, at some computational cost, for some semi-parametric families (e.g., mixtures of Gaussians). We present a new family of continuous variable probabilistic networks that are based on {em Gaussian Process/} priors. These priors are semi-parametric in nature and can learn almost arbitrary noisy functional relations. Using these priors, we can directly compute marginal likelihoods for structure learning. The resulting method can discover a wide range of functional dependencies in multivariate data. We develop the Bayesian score of Gaussian Process Networks and describe how to learn them from data. We present empirical results on artificial data as well as on real-life domains with non-linear dependencies.
1301.3858
A Qualitative Linear Utility Theory for Spohn's Theory of Epistemic Beliefs
cs.AI
In this paper, we formulate a qualitative "linear" utility theory for lotteries in which uncertainty is expressed qualitatively using a Spohnian disbelief function. We argue that a rational decision maker facing an uncertain decision problem in which the uncertainty is expressed qualitatively should behave so as to maximize "qualitative expected utility." Our axiomatization of the qualitative utility is similar to the axiomatization developed by von Neumann and Morgenstern for probabilistic lotteries. We compare our results with other recent results in qualitative decision making.
1301.3859
Building a Stochastic Dynamic Model of Application Use
cs.AI
Many intelligent user interfaces employ application and user models to determine the user's preferences, goals and likely future actions. Such models require application analysis, adaptation and expansion. Building and maintaining such models adds a substantial amount of time and labour to the application development cycle. We present a system that observes the interface of an unmodified application and records users' interactions with the application. From a history of such observations we build a coarse state space of observed interface states and actions between them. To refine the space, we hypothesize sub-states based upon the histories that led users to a given state. We evaluate the information gain of possible state splits, varying the length of the histories considered in such splits. In this way, we automatically produce a stochastic dynamic model of the application and of how it is used. To evaluate our approach, we present models derived from real-world application usage data.
1301.3860
Maximum Entropy and the Glasses You Are Looking Through
cs.AI
We give an interpretation of the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) Principle in game-theoretic terms. Based on this interpretation, we make a formal distinction between different ways of {em applying/} Maximum Entropy distributions. MaxEnt has frequently been criticized on the grounds that it leads to highly representation dependent results. Our distinction allows us to avoid this problem in many cases.
1301.3861
Inference for Belief Networks Using Coupling From the Past
cs.AI cs.LG
Inference for belief networks using Gibbs sampling produces a distribution for unobserved variables that differs from the correct distribution by a (usually) unknown error, since convergence to the right distribution occurs only asymptotically. The method of "coupling from the past" samples from exactly the correct distribution by (conceptually) running dependent Gibbs sampling simulations from every possible starting state from a time far enough in the past that all runs reach the same state at time t=0. Explicitly considering every possible state is intractable for large networks, however. We propose a method for layered noisy-or networks that uses a compact, but often imprecise, summary of a set of states. This method samples from exactly the correct distribution, and requires only about twice the time per step as ordinary Gibbs sampling, but it may require more simulation steps than would be needed if chains were tracked exactly.
1301.3862
Dependency Networks for Collaborative Filtering and Data Visualization
cs.AI cs.IR cs.LG
We describe a graphical model for probabilistic relationships---an alternative to the Bayesian network---called a dependency network. The graph of a dependency network, unlike a Bayesian network, is potentially cyclic. The probability component of a dependency network, like a Bayesian network, is a set of conditional distributions, one for each node given its parents. We identify several basic properties of this representation and describe a computationally efficient procedure for learning the graph and probability components from data. We describe the application of this representation to probabilistic inference, collaborative filtering (the task of predicting preferences), and the visualization of acausal predictive relationships.
1301.3863
YGGDRASIL - A Statistical Package for Learning Split Models
cs.AI cs.MS stat.ME
There are two main objectives of this paper. The first is to present a statistical framework for models with context specific independence structures, i.e., conditional independences holding only for sepcific values of the conditioning variables. This framework is constituted by the class of split models. Split models are extension of graphical models for contigency tables and allow for a more sophisticiated modelling than graphical models. The treatment of split models include estimation, representation and a Markov property for reading off those independencies holding in a specific context. The second objective is to present a software package named YGGDRASIL which is designed for statistical inference in split models, i.e., for learning such models on the basis of data.
1301.3864
Probabilistic Arc Consistency: A Connection between Constraint Reasoning and Probabilistic Reasoning
cs.AI
We document a connection between constraint reasoning and probabilistic reasoning. We present an algorithm, called {em probabilistic arc consistency}, which is both a generalization of a well known algorithm for arc consistency used in constraint reasoning, and a specialization of the belief updating algorithm for singly-connected networks. Our algorithm is exact for singly- connected constraint problems, but can work well as an approximation for arbitrary problems. We briefly discuss some empirical results, and related methods.
1301.3865
Feature Selection and Dualities in Maximum Entropy Discrimination
cs.LG stat.ML
Incorporating feature selection into a classification or regression method often carries a number of advantages. In this paper we formalize feature selection specifically from a discriminative perspective of improving classification/regression accuracy. The feature selection method is developed as an extension to the recently proposed maximum entropy discrimination (MED) framework. We describe MED as a flexible (Bayesian) regularization approach that subsumes, e.g., support vector classification, regression and exponential family models. For brevity, we restrict ourselves primarily to feature selection in the context of linear classification/regression methods and demonstrate that the proposed approach indeed carries substantial improvements in practice. Moreover, we discuss and develop various extensions of feature selection, including the problem of dealing with example specific but unobserved degrees of freedom -- alignments or invariants.
1301.3866
Marginalization in Composed Probabilistic Models
cs.AI
Composition of low-dimensional distributions, whose foundations were laid in the papaer published in the Proceeding of UAI'97 (Jirousek 1997), appeared to be an alternative apparatus to describe multidimensional probabilistic models. In contrast to Graphical Markov Models, which define multidomensinoal distributions in a declarative way, this approach is rather procedural. Ordering of low-dimensional distributions into a proper sequence fully defines the resepctive computational procedure; therefore, a stury of different type of generating sequences is one fo the central problems in this field. Thus, it appears that an important role is played by special sequences that are called perfect. Their main characterization theorems are presetned in this paper. However, the main result of this paper is a solution to the problem of margnialization for general sequences. The main theorem describes a way to obtain a generating sequence that defines the model corresponding to the marginal of the distribution defined by an arbitrary genearting sequence. From this theorem the reader can see to what extent these comutations are local; i.e., the sequence consists of marginal distributions whose computation must be made by summing up over the values of the variable eliminated (the paper deals with finite model).
1301.3867
Fast Planning in Stochastic Games
cs.GT cs.AI
Stochastic games generalize Markov decision processes (MDPs) to a multiagent setting by allowing the state transitions to depend jointly on all player actions, and having rewards determined by multiplayer matrix games at each state. We consider the problem of computing Nash equilibria in stochastic games, the analogue of planning in MDPs. We begin by providing a generalization of finite-horizon value iteration that computes a Nash strategy for each player in generalsum stochastic games. The algorithm takes an arbitrary Nash selection function as input, which allows the translation of local choices between multiple Nash equilibria into the selection of a single global Nash equilibrium. Our main technical result is an algorithm for computing near-Nash equilibria in large or infinite state spaces. This algorithm builds on our finite-horizon value iteration algorithm, and adapts the sparse sampling methods of Kearns, Mansour and Ng (1999) to stochastic games. We conclude by descrbing a counterexample showing that infinite-horizon discounted value iteration, which was shown by shaplely to converge in the zero-sum case (a result we give extend slightly here), does not converge in the general-sum case.
1301.3868
Making Sensitivity Analysis Computationally Efficient
cs.AI
To investigate the robustness of the output probabilities of a Bayesian network, a sensitivity analysis can be performed. A one-way sensitivity analysis establishes, for each of the probability parameters of a network, a function expressing a posterior marginal probability of interest in terms of the parameter. Current methods for computing the coefficients in such a function rely on a large number of network evaluations. In this paper, we present a method that requires just a single outward propagation in a junction tree for establishing the coefficients in the functions for all possible parameters; in addition, an inward propagation is required for processing evidence. Conversely, the method requires a single outward propagation for computing the coefficients in the functions expressing all possible posterior marginals in terms of a single parameter. We extend these results to an n-way sensitivity analysis in which sets of parameters are studied.
1301.3869
Policy Iteration for Factored MDPs
cs.AI
Many large MDPs can be represented compactly using a dynamic Bayesian network. Although the structure of the value function does not retain the structure of the process, recent work has shown that value functions in factored MDPs can often be approximated well using a decomposed value function: a linear combination of <I>restricted</I> basis functions, each of which refers only to a small subset of variables. An approximate value function for a particular policy can be computed using approximate dynamic programming, but this approach (and others) can only produce an approximation relative to a distance metric which is weighted by the stationary distribution of the current policy. This type of weighted projection is ill-suited to policy improvement. We present a new approach to value determination, that uses a simple closed-form computation to directly compute a least-squares decomposed approximation to the value function <I>for any weights</I>. We then use this value determination algorithm as a subroutine in a policy iteration process. We show that, under reasonable restrictions, the policies induced by a factored value function are compactly represented, and can be manipulated efficiently in a policy iteration process. We also present a method for computing error bounds for decomposed value functions using a variable-elimination algorithm for function optimization. The complexity of all of our algorithms depends on the factorization of system dynamics and of the approximate value function.
1301.3870
Game Networks
cs.GT cs.AI
We introduce Game networks (G nets), a novel representation for multi-agent decision problems. Compared to other game-theoretic representations, such as strategic or extensive forms, G nets are more structured and more compact; more fundamentally, G nets constitute a computationally advantageous framework for strategic inference, as both probability and utility independencies are captured in the structure of the network and can be exploited in order to simplify the inference process. An important aspect of multi-agent reasoning is the identification of some or all of the strategic equilibria in a game; we present original convergence methods for strategic equilibrium which can take advantage of strategic separabilities in the G net structure in order to simplify the computations. Specifically, we describe a method which identifies a unique equilibrium as a function of the game payoffs, and one which identifies all equilibria.
1301.3871
Combinatorial Optimization by Learning and Simulation of Bayesian Networks
cs.AI cs.DS
This paper shows how the Bayesian network paradigm can be used in order to solve combinatorial optimization problems. To do it some methods of structure learning from data and simulation of Bayesian networks are inserted inside Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDA). EDA are a new tool for evolutionary computation in which populations of individuals are created by estimation and simulation of the joint probability distribution of the selected individuals. We propose new approaches to EDA for combinatorial optimization based on the theory of probabilistic graphical models. Experimental results are also presented.
1301.3872
Causal Mechanism-based Model Construction
cs.AI
We propose a framework for building graphical causal model that is based on the concept of causal mechanisms. Causal models are intuitive for human users and, more importantly, support the prediction of the effect of manipulation. We describe an implementation of the proposed framework as an interactive model construction module, ImaGeNIe, in SMILE (Structural Modeling, Inference, and Learning Engine) and in GeNIe (SMILE's Windows user interface).
1301.3873
Credal Networks under Maximum Entropy
cs.AI
We apply the principle of maximum entropy to select a unique joint probability distribution from the set of all joint probability distributions specified by a credal network. In detail, we start by showing that the unique joint distribution of a Bayesian tree coincides with the maximum entropy model of its conditional distributions. This result, however, does not hold anymore for general Bayesian networks. We thus present a new kind of maximum entropy models, which are computed sequentially. We then show that for all general Bayesian networks, the sequential maximum entropy model coincides with the unique joint distribution. Moreover, we apply the new principle of sequential maximum entropy to interval Bayesian networks and more generally to credal networks. We especially show that this application is equivalent to a number of small local entropy maximizations.
1301.3874
Risk Agoras: Dialectical Argumentation for Scientific Reasoning
cs.AI
We propose a formal framework for intelligent systems which can reason about scientific domains, in particular about the carcinogenicity of chemicals, and we study its properties. Our framework is grounded in a philosophy of scientific enquiry and discourse, and uses a model of dialectical argumentation. The formalism enables representation of scientific uncertainty and conflict in a manner suitable for qualitative reasoning about the domain.
1301.3875
Tractable Bayesian Learning of Tree Belief Networks
cs.LG cs.AI stat.ML
In this paper we present decomposable priors, a family of priors over structure and parameters of tree belief nets for which Bayesian learning with complete observations is tractable, in the sense that the posterior is also decomposable and can be completely determined analytically in polynomial time. This follows from two main results: First, we show that factored distributions over spanning trees in a graph can be integrated in closed form. Second, we examine priors over tree parameters and show that a set of assumptions similar to (Heckerman and al. 1995) constrain the tree parameter priors to be a compactly parameterized product of Dirichlet distributions. Beside allowing for exact Bayesian learning, these results permit us to formulate a new class of tractable latent variable models in which the likelihood of a data point is computed through an ensemble average over tree structures.
1301.3876
Probabilistic Models for Agents' Beliefs and Decisions
cs.AI
Many applications of intelligent systems require reasoning about the mental states of agents in the domain. We may want to reason about an agent's beliefs, including beliefs about other agents; we may also want to reason about an agent's preferences, and how his beliefs and preferences relate to his behavior. We define a probabilistic epistemic logic (PEL) in which belief statements are given a formal semantics, and provide an algorithm for asserting and querying PEL formulas in Bayesian networks. We then show how to reason about an agent's behavior by modeling his decision process as an influence diagram and assuming that he behaves rationally. PEL can then be used for reasoning from an agent's observed actions to conclusions about other aspects of the domain, including unobserved domain variables and the agent's mental states.
1301.3877
The Anchors Hierachy: Using the triangle inequality to survive high dimensional data
cs.LG cs.DS stat.ML
This paper is about metric data structures in high-dimensional or non-Euclidean space that permit cached sufficient statistics accelerations of learning algorithms. It has recently been shown that for less than about 10 dimensions, decorating kd-trees with additional "cached sufficient statistics" such as first and second moments and contingency tables can provide satisfying acceleration for a very wide range of statistical learning tasks such as kernel regression, locally weighted regression, k-means clustering, mixture modeling and Bayes Net learning. In this paper, we begin by defining the anchors hierarchy - a fast data structure and algorithm for localizing data based only on a triangle-inequality-obeying distance metric. We show how this, in its own right, gives a fast and effective clustering of data. But more importantly we show how it can produce a well-balanced structure similar to a Ball-Tree (Omohundro, 1991) or a kind of metric tree (Uhlmann, 1991; Ciaccia, Patella, & Zezula, 1997) in a way that is neither "top-down" nor "bottom-up" but instead "middle-out". We then show how this structure, decorated with cached sufficient statistics, allows a wide variety of statistical learning algorithms to be accelerated even in thousands of dimensions.
1301.3878
PEGASUS: A Policy Search Method for Large MDPs and POMDPs
cs.AI cs.LG
We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of policies for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), given a model. Our approach is based on the following observation: Any (PO)MDP can be transformed into an "equivalent" POMDP in which all state transitions (given the current state and action) are deterministic. This reduces the general problem of policy search to one in which we need only consider POMDPs with deterministic transitions. We give a natural way of estimating the value of all policies in these transformed POMDPs. Policy search is then simply performed by searching for a policy with high estimated value. We also establish conditions under which our value estimates will be good, recovering theoretical results similar to those of Kearns, Mansour and Ng (1999), but with "sample complexity" bounds that have only a polynomial rather than exponential dependence on the horizon time. Our method applies to arbitrary POMDPs, including ones with infinite state and action spaces. We also present empirical results for our approach on a small discrete problem, and on a complex continuous state/continuous action problem involving learning to ride a bicycle.
1301.3879
Representing and Solving Asymmetric Bayesian Decision Problems
cs.AI
This paper deals with the representation and solution of asymmetric Bayesian decision problems. We present a formal framework, termed asymmetric influence diagrams, that is based on the influence diagram and allows an efficient representation of asymmetric decision problems. As opposed to existing frameworks, the asymmetric influece diagram primarily encodes asymmetry at the qualitative level and it can therefore be read directly from the model. We give an algorithm for solving asymmetric influence diagrams. The algorithm initially decomposes the asymmetric decision problem into a structure of symmetric subproblems organized as a tree. A solution to the decision problem can then be found by propagating from the leaves toward the root using existing evaluation methods to solve the sub-problems.
1301.3880
Using ROBDDs for Inference in Bayesian Networks with Troubleshooting as an Example
cs.AI
When using Bayesian networks for modelling the behavior of man-made machinery, it usually happens that a large part of the model is deterministic. For such Bayesian networks deterministic part of the model can be represented as a Boolean function, and a central part of belief updating reduces to the task of calculating the number of satisfying configurations in a Boolean function. In this paper we explore how advances in the calculation of Boolean functions can be adopted for belief updating, in particular within the context of troubleshooting. We present experimental results indicating a substantial speed-up compared to traditional junction tree propagation.
1301.3881
Evaluating Influence Diagrams using LIMIDs
cs.AI
We present a new approach to the solution of decision problems formulated as influence diagrams. The approach converts the influence diagram into a simpler structure, the LImited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID), where only the requisite information for the computation of optimal policies is depicted. Because the requisite information is explicitly represented in the diagram, the evaluation procedure can take advantage of it. In this paper we show how to convert an influence diagram to a LIMID and describe the procedure for finding an optimal strategy. Our approach can yield significant savings of memory and computational time when compared to traditional methods.
1301.3882
Adaptive Importance Sampling for Estimation in Structured Domains
cs.AI cs.LG stat.ML
Sampling is an important tool for estimating large, complex sums and integrals over high dimensional spaces. For instance, important sampling has been used as an alternative to exact methods for inference in belief networks. Ideally, we want to have a sampling distribution that provides optimal-variance estimators. In this paper, we present methods that improve the sampling distribution by systematically adapting it as we obtain information from the samples. We present a stochastic-gradient-descent method for sequentially updating the sampling distribution based on the direct minization of the variance. We also present other stochastic-gradient-descent methods based on the minimizationof typical notions of distance between the current sampling distribution and approximations of the target, optimal distribution. We finally validate and compare the different methods empirically by applying them to the problem of action evaluation in influence diagrams.
1301.3883
Conversation as Action Under Uncertainty
cs.AI
Conversations abound with uncetainties of various kinds. Treating conversation as inference and decision making under uncertainty, we propose a task independent, multimodal architecture for supporting robust continuous spoken dialog called Quartet. We introduce four interdependent levels of analysis, and describe representations, inference procedures, and decision strategies for managing uncertainties within and between the levels. We highlight the approach by reviewing interactions between a user and two spoken dialog systems developed using the Quartet architecture: Prsenter, a prototype system for navigating Microsoft PowerPoint presentations, and the Bayesian Receptionist, a prototype system for dealing with tasks typically handled by front desk receptionists at the Microsoft corporate campus.
1301.3884
Probabilistic Models for Query Approximation with Large Sparse Binary Datasets
cs.AI cs.DB
Large sparse sets of binary transaction data with millions of records and thousands of attributes occur in various domains: customers purchasing products, users visiting web pages, and documents containing words are just three typical examples. Real-time query selectivity estimation (the problem of estimating the number of rows in the data satisfying a given predicate) is an important practical problem for such databases. We investigate the application of probabilistic models to this problem. In particular, we study a Markov random field (MRF) approach based on frequent sets and maximum entropy, and compare it to the independence model and the Chow-Liu tree model. We find that the MRF model provides substantially more accurate probability estimates than the other methods but is more expensive from a computational and memory viewpoint. To alleviate the computational requirements we show how one can apply bucket elimination and clique tree approaches to take advantage of structure in the models and in the queries. We provide experimental results on two large real-world transaction datasets.
1301.3885
Collaborative Filtering by Personality Diagnosis: A Hybrid Memory- and Model-Based Approach
cs.IR
The growth of Internet commerce has stimulated the use of collaborative filtering (CF) algorithms as recommender systems. Such systems leverage knowledge about the known preferences of multiple users to recommend items of interest to other users. CF methods have been harnessed to make recommendations about such items as web pages, movies, books, and toys. Researchers have proposed and evaluated many approaches for generating recommendations. We describe and evaluate a new method called emph{personality diagnosis (PD)}. Given a user's preferences for some items, we compute the probability that he or she is of the same "personality type" as other users, and, in turn, the probability that he or she will like new items. PD retains some of the advantages of traditional similarity-weighting techniques in that all data is brought to bear on each prediction and new data can be added easily and incrementally. Additionally, PD has a meaningful probabilistic interpretation, which may be leveraged to justify, explain, and augment results. We report empirical results on the EachMovie database of movie ratings, and on user profile data collected from the CiteSeer digital library of Computer Science research papers. The probabilistic framework naturally supports a variety of descriptive measurements - in particular, we consider the applicability of a value of information (VOI) computation.
1301.3887
Value-Directed Belief State Approximation for POMDPs
cs.AI
We consider the problem belief-state monitoring for the purposes of implementing a policy for a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP), specifically how one might approximate the belief state. Other schemes for belief-state approximation (e.g., based on minimixing a measures such as KL-diveregence between the true and estimated state) are not necessarily appropriate for POMDPs. Instead we propose a framework for analyzing value-directed approximation schemes, where approximation quality is determined by the expected error in utility rather than by the error in the belief state itself. We propose heuristic methods for finding good projection schemes for belief state estimation - exhibiting anytime characteristics - given a POMDP value fucntion. We also describe several algorithms for constructing bounds on the error in decision quality (expected utility) associated with acting in accordance with a given belief state approximation.
1301.3888
Probabilistic State-Dependent Grammars for Plan Recognition
cs.AI
Techniques for plan recognition under uncertainty require a stochastic model of the plan-generation process. We introduce Probabilistic State-Dependent Grammars (PSDGs) to represent an agent's plan-generation process. The PSDG language model extends probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs) by allowing production probabilities to depend on an explicit model of the planning agent's internal and external state. Given a PSDG description of the plan-generation process, we can then use inference algorithms that exploit the particular independence properties of the PSDG language to efficiently answer plan-recognition queries. The combination of the PSDG language model and inference algorithms extends the range of plan-recognition domains for which practical probabilistic inference is possible, as illustrated by applications in traffic monitoring and air combat.