instruction stringlengths 172 804 | output stringclasses 49
values |
|---|---|
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 US Presidential E... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States. Oth... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?
Resolution criteria: Presidential elections will be held in Romania on 24 November 2024. A second... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by th... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is is photographed or videotaped wearing a ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any other Republican Politi... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announc... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris is the candidate who receives the most votes in the ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US government shutdown Saturday?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federa... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michelle Obama wins the 2024 US Presidential... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect th... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the 2024 U... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is the candidate... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majori... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any other Democratic Politi... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: The 2025 Irish presidential election must take place by Tuesday, 11 November 20... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the po... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nikki Haley wins the 2024 US Presidential Elect... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the targ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Netanyahu out by March 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of t... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of t... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 US Presidenti... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Gavin Newsom be D-nom for VP on Election Day?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is the official 2024 nominee of the Dem... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Resolution criteria: The Epstein Files Transparency Act requires the Department of Justice to release all un... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Resolution criteria: South Korean presidential elections will occur on or before June 3, 2025 fo... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election?
Resolution criteria: The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on Novembe... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Resolution criteria: "Stranger Things: Season 5" is scheduled to air in three parts, on November 26, 2025, Decemb... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from p... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Trump launch a coin before the election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive, definitive evidence emerges that Donald Trump... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by th... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly ann... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?
Resolution criteria: South Korean presidential elections will occur on or before June 3, 2025 fol... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is inaugurated as President of the United States. Othe... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 US Presidential Election.... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Charlotte Hornets win the 2024-2025 NBA East... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton is the can... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Resolution criteria: The next Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025,... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the ta... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Austin Scott become... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound o... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-op... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Biden finish his term?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed fro... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overt... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Detroit Pistons win the 2024-2025 NBA Eastern ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jack Bergman become... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of t... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following two conditions are met:
1) Donald J. Tr... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is g... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 nominat... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins the 2024 US Presidential Ele... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elise Stefanik be... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will there be a US Government shutdown?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S government shut down occurs between August 30, and Dece... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?
Resolution criteria: South Korean presidential elections will occur on or before June 3, 2025 fol... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly an... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of t... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?
Resolution criteria: The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November ... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will New Hampshire be the closest state?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory between the f... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound o... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed f... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the ma... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the candi... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michelle Obama wins the 2024 nomin... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 US Presidential Ele... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the targ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Keith Rabois be appointed as the next Florida senator?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keith Rabois is appointed as a U.S. Senator... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the tar... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s ... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of t... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil o... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
Resolution criteria: Presidential elections will be held in Poland in May, 2025. If no candidate receives... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Yoon Suk Yeol ceases to be the President of South Kore... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce a... | Probability: 0.95
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ron DeSantis is the candidate... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as Presiden... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES.
Question: Will Rob Riggle win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
Resolution criteria: The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock th... | Probability: 0.05
Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available. |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.