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You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 US Presidential E...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump is inaugurated as President of the United States. Oth...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Resolution criteria: Presidential elections will be held in Romania on 24 November 2024. A second...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US forces enter Iran by April 30? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by th...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy is is photographed or videotaped wearing a ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any other Republican Politi...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announc...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris is the candidate who receives the most votes in the ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US government shutdown Saturday? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federa...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michelle Obama wins the 2024 US Presidential...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect th...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the 2024 U...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is the candidate...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majori...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any other Democratic Politi...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Frances Fitzgerald win the Irish Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: The 2025 Irish presidential election must take place by Tuesday, 11 November 20...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Pennsylvania by 1.5%-2.0%? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the po...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nikki Haley wins the 2024 US Presidential Elect...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the targ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Netanyahu out by March 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of t...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of t...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton wins the 2024 US Presidenti...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Gavin Newsom be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom is the official 2024 nominee of the Dem...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Resolution criteria: The Epstein Files Transparency Act requires the Department of Justice to release all un...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Resolution criteria: South Korean presidential elections will occur on or before June 3, 2025 fo...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Hunor Kelemen win the Romanian presidential election? Resolution criteria: The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on Novembe...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Resolution criteria: "Stranger Things: Season 5" is scheduled to air in three parts, on November 26, 2025, Decemb...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Xi Jinping out in 2025? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from p...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive, definitive evidence emerges that Donald Trump...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US forces enter Iran by March 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by th...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly ann...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Resolution criteria: South Korean presidential elections will occur on or before June 3, 2025 fol...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is inaugurated as President of the United States. Othe...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 US Presidential Election....
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Charlotte Hornets win the 2024-2025 NBA East...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Hillary Clinton win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hillary Clinton is the can...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Resolution criteria: The next Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025,...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the ta...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Austin Scott become...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound o...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a real-money trade is publicly placed on a regulated, Polymarket-op...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Biden finish his term? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed fro...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overt...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Detroit Pistons win the 2024-2025 NBA Eastern ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Jack Bergman be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jack Bergman become...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden wins the 2024 nomination of t...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following two conditions are met: 1) Donald J. Tr...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Lighter's token is g...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 nominat...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gavin Newsom wins the 2024 US Presidential Ele...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Elise Stefanik be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elise Stefanik be...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will there be a US Government shutdown? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S government shut down occurs between August 30, and Dece...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Resolution criteria: South Korean presidential elections will occur on or before June 3, 2025 fol...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly an...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of t...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Resolution criteria: The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November ...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will New Hampshire be the closest state? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Hampshire has the smallest margin of victory between the f...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound o...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed f...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the ma...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Resolution criteria: The 2025 New York City mayoral election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will the Democratic candidate win Nevada by 3.0%-4.0%? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes” if the Democratic Party candidate wins the popular ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the candi...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Michelle Obama wins the 2024 nomin...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 US Presidential Ele...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the targ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Keith Rabois be appointed as the next Florida senator? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keith Rabois is appointed as a U.S. Senator...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the tar...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s ...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of t...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil o...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Resolution criteria: Presidential elections will be held in Poland in May, 2025. If no candidate receives...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Yoon Suk Yeol ceases to be the President of South Kore...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce a...
Probability: 0.95 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved YES. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.95, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Ron DeSantis win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ron DeSantis is the candidate...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as Presiden...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
You are a probabilistic forecaster. Given this prediction market question, provide a calibrated probability (0.0-1.0) that the event resolves YES. Question: Will Rob Riggle win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Resolution criteria: The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock th...
Probability: 0.05 Reasoning: This prediction market resolved NO. The market-consensus probability at close was 0.05, reflecting aggregate real-money trader estimates. Calibrated forecasters minimize Brier score by staying close to market consensus when available.
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