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maritime economics.pdf
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MARITIME ECONOMICS Winner of the Chojeong Book Prize 2005 for ‘making a significant contribution to the development of maritime transport academically and practically’ ‘In its breadth, this book is a tour de force and anyone who reads it cannot but be better informed about the shipping world’ Lloyds List, 17th December 1997 For 5,000 years shipping has served the world economy and today it provides a sophisticated transport service to every part of the globe. Yet despite its eco nomic complexity, shipping retains much of the competitive cut and thrust of the ‘perfect’ market of classical economics. This blend of sophisticated logistics and larger than life entrepreneurs makes it a unique case study of classical econom ics in a modern setting. The enlarged and substantially rewritten Maritime Economics uses historical and theoretical analysis as the framework for a practical explanation of how shipping works today. Whilst retaining the structure of the second edition, its scope is widened to include: ● lessons from 5,000 years of commercial shipping history; ● shipping cycles back to 1741, with a year by year commentary; ● updated chapters on markets, shipping costs, accounts, ship finance and a new chapter on the return on capital; ● new chapters on the geography of sea trade, trade theory and specialized cargoes; ● updated chapters on the merchant fleet shipbuilding, recycling and the reg ulatory regime; ● a much revised chapter on the challenges and pitfalls of forecasting. With over 800 pages, 200 illustrations, maps, technical drawings and tables, Maritime Economics is the shipping industry’s most comprehensive text and ref erence source, whilst remaining, as one reviewer put it, ‘a very readable book’. Martin Stopford has enjoyed a distinguished career in the shipping industry as Director of Business Development with British Shipbuilders, Global Shipping Economist with the Chase Manhattan Bank N.A., Chief Executive of Lloyds Maritime Information Services, Managing Director of Clarkson Research Services and an executive Director of Clarksons PLC. He lectures regularly at Cambridge Academy of Transport and is a Visiting Professor at Cass Business School, Dalian Maritime University and Copenhagen Business School. MARITIME ECONOMICS Third edition Martin Stopford First published by Allen and Unwin 1988 Second edition published 1997 Third edition published 2009 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2009 Martin Stopford All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested, ISBN10: 0415275571 (hbk) ISBN10: 041527558X (pbk) ISBN10: 0203891740 (ebk) ISBN13: 9780415275576 (hbk) ISBN13: 9780415275583 (pbk) ISBN13: 9780203891742 (ebk) This edition published
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maritime economics.pdf
| 1
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Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested, ISBN10: 0415275571 (hbk) ISBN10: 041527558X (pbk) ISBN10: 0203891740 (ebk) ISBN13: 9780415275576 (hbk) ISBN13: 9780415275583 (pbk) ISBN13: 9780203891742 (ebk) This edition published in the Taylor & Francis eLibrary, 2008. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” ISBN 0203891740 Master ebook ISBN Contents Preface to the Third Edition xi Synopsis xiii Abbreviations xix Fifty Essential Shipping Terms xxi PART 1: INTRODUCTION TO SHIPPING 1 Chapter 1 Sea Transport and the Global Economy 3 1.1 Introduction 3 1.2 The origins of sea trade, 3000 BC to AD 1450 7 1.3 The global economy in the fifteenth century 12 1.4 Opening up global trade and commerce, 1450–1833 13 1.5 Liner and tramp shipping, 1833–1950 23 1.6 Container, bulk and air transport, 1950–2006 35 1.7 Lessons from 5,000 years of commercial shipping 44 1.8 Summary 45 Chapter 2 The Organization of the Shipping Market 47 2.1 Introduction 47 2.2 Overview of the maritime industry 48 2.3 The International transport industry 50 2.4 Characteristics of sea transport demand 53 2.5 The sea transport system 61 2.6 The world merchant fleet 68 2.7 The cost of sea transport 73 vi CONTENTS 2.8 The role of ports in the transport system 81 2.9 The shipping companies that run the business 83 2.10 The role of governments in shipping 89 2.11 Summary 89 PART 2: SHIPPING MARKET ECONOMICS 91 Chapter 3 Shipping Market Cycles 93 3.1 Introducing the shipping cycle 93 3.2 Characteristics of shipping market cycles 94 3.3 Shipping cycles and shipping risk 101 3.4 Overview of shipping cycles, 1741–2007 104 3.5 Sailing ship cycles, 1741–1869 108 3.6 Tramp market cycles, 1869–1936 110 3.7 Bulk shipping market cycles, 1945–2008 118 3.8 Lessons from two centuries of cycles 130 3.9 Prediction of shipping cycles 131 3.10 Summary 133 Chapter 4 Supply, Demand and Freight Rates 135 4.1 The shipping market model 135 4.2 Key influences on supply and demand 136 4.3 The demand for sea transport 139 4.4 The supply of sea transport 150 4.5 The freight rate mechanism 160 4.6 Summary 172 Chapter 5 The Four Shipping Markets 175 5.1 The decisions facing shipowners 175 5.2 The four shipping markets 177 5.3 The freight market 180 5.4 The freight derivatives market 193 5.5 The sale and purchase market 198 5.6 The newbuilding market 207 5.7 The demolition (recycling) market 212 5.8 Summary 213 PART 3: SHIPPING COMPANY ECONOMICS 215 Chapter 6 Costs, Revenue and Cashflow 217 6.1 Cashflow and the art of survival 217 6.2 Financial performance and investment strategy 219 6.3 The cost of running ships 225 vii CONTENTS 6.4 The capital cost of the ship 236 6.5 The revenue the ship earns 242 6.6 Shipping accounts – the framework for decisions 246 6.7 Four methods of computing the cashflow 252 6.8 Valuing merchant ships 262 6.9 Summary 266 Chapter 7 Financing Ships
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maritime economics.pdf
| 2
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of running ships 225 vii CONTENTS 6.4 The capital cost of the ship 236 6.5 The revenue the ship earns 242 6.6 Shipping accounts – the framework for decisions 246 6.7 Four methods of computing the cashflow 252 6.8 Valuing merchant ships 262 6.9 Summary 266 Chapter 7 Financing Ships and Shipping Companies 269 7.1 Ship finance and shipping economics 269 7.2 How ships have been financed in the past 270 7.3 The world financial system and types of finance 276 7.4 Financing ships with private funds 285 7.5 Financing ships with bank loans 285 7.6 Financing ships and shipping companies in the capital markets 296 7.7 Financing ships with special purpose companies 303 7.8 Analysing risk in ship finance 310 7.9 Dealing with default 314 7.10 Summary 316 Chapter 8 Risk, Return and Shipping Company Economics 319 8.1 The performance of shipping investments 319 8.2 The shipping company investment model 324 8.3 Competition theory and the ‘normal’ profit 329 8.4 Pricing shipping risk 338 8.5 Summary 342 PART 4: SEABORNE TRADE AND TRANSPORT SYSTEMS 345 Chapter 9 The Geography of Maritime Trade 347 9.1 The value added by seaborne transport 347 9.2 Oceans, distances and transit times 348 9.3 The maritime trading network 356 9.4 Europe’s seaborne trade 365 9.5 North America’s seaborne trade 368 9.6 South America’s seaborne trade 371 9.7 Asia’s seaborne trade 373 9.8 Africa’s seaborne trade 378 9.9 The seaborne trade of the Middle East, Central Asia and Russia 379 9.10 The trade of Australia and Oceania 383 9.11 Summary 383 Chapter 10 The Principles of Maritime Trade 385 10.1 The buildingblocks of sea trade 385 viii CONTENTS 10.2 The countries that trade by sea 389 10.3 Why countries trade 393 10.4 Differences in production costs 395 10.5 Trade due to differences in natural resources 399 10.6 Commodity trade cycles 404 10.7 The role of sea transport in trade 411 10.8 Summary 415 Chapter 11 The Transport of Bulk Cargoes 417 11.1 The commercial origins of bulk shipping 417 11.2 The bulk fleet 418 11.3 The bulk trades 419 11.4 The principles of bulk transport 422 11.5 Practical aspects of bulk transport 427 11.6 Liquid bulk transport 432 11.7 The crude oil trade 434 11.8 The oil products trade 442 11.9 The major dry bulk trades 445 11.10 The minor bulk trades 457 11.11 Summary 466 Chapter 12 The Transport of Specialized Cargoes 469 12.1 Introduction to specialized shipping 469 12.2 The sea transport of chemicals 473 12.3 The liquefied petroleum gas trade 478 12.4 The liquefied natural gas trade 483 12.5 The transport of refrigerated cargo 488 12.6 Unit load cargo transport 492 12.7 Passenger shipping 499 12.8 Summary 503 Chapter 13 The Transport of General Cargo 505 13.1 Introduction 505 13.2 The origins of the liner service 506 13.3 Economic principles of liner operation 512 13.4 General cargo and liner transport demand 514 13.5 The liner shipping routes 524 13.6 The liner companies 532 13.7 The liner fleet 537 13.8 The principles of liner service economics 539 13.9 Pricing liner services 550 13.10 Liner conferences
|
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maritime economics.pdf
| 3
|
liner service 506 13.3 Economic principles of liner operation 512 13.4 General cargo and liner transport demand 514 13.5 The liner shipping routes 524 13.6 The liner companies 532 13.7 The liner fleet 537 13.8 The principles of liner service economics 539 13.9 Pricing liner services 550 13.10 Liner conferences and cooperative agreements 555 13.11 Container ports and terminals 559 13.12 Summary 562 ix CONTENTS PART 5: THE MERCHANT FLEET AND TRANSPORT SUPPLY 565 Chapter 14 The Ships that Provide the Transport 567 14.1 What type of ship? 567 14.2 Seven questions that define a design 571 14.3 Ships for the general cargo trades 581 14.4 Ships for the dry bulk trades 590 14.5 Ships for liquid bulk cargoes 596 14.6 Gas tankers 604 14.7 Noncargo ships 608 14.8 Economic criteria for evaluating ship designs 609 14.9 Summary 610 Chapter 15 The Economics of Shipbuilding and Scrapping 613 15.1 The role of the merchant shipbuilding and scrapping industries 613 15.2 The regional structure of world shipbuilding 614 15.3 Shipbuilding market cycles 625 15.4 The economic principles 628 15.5 The shipbuilding production process 638 15.6 Shipbuilding costs and competitiveness 644 15.7 The ship recycling industry 648 15.8 Summary 652 Chapter 16 The Regulation of the Maritime Industry 655 16.1 How regulations affect maritime economics 655 16.2 Overview of the regulatory system 656 16.3 The classification societies 658 16.4 The law of the sea 663 16.5 The regulatory role of the flag state 666 16.6 How maritime laws are made 675 16.7 The International Maritime Organization 678 16.8 The International Labour Organization 684 16.9 The regulatory role of the coastal and port states 685 16.10 The regulation of competition in shipping 688 16.11 Summary 692 PART 6: FORECASTING AND PLANNING 695 Chapter 17 Maritime Forecasting and Market Research 697 17.1 The approach to maritime forecasting 697 17.2 Key elements of the forecast 702 17.3 Preparing for the forecast 705 17.4 Market forecasting methodologies 709 x CONTENTS 17.5 Market research methodology 712 17.6 Freight rate forecasting 715 17.7 Developing a scenario analysis 723 17.8 Analytical techniques 724 17.9 Forecasting problems 738 17.10 Summary 742 Appendix A: An Introduction to Shipping Market Modelling 745 Appendix B: Tonnage Measurement and Conversion Factors 751 Appendix C: Maritime Economics Freight Index, 1741–2007 755 Notes 759 References and suggested reading 783 Index 793 The third edition of Maritime Economics, like the previous editions, aims to explain how the shipping market is organized and answer some practical questions about how it works. Why do countries trade by sea? How is sea transport organized? How are prices and freight rates determined? How are ships financed? Are there market cycles? What returns do shipping companies make? How can a shipping company survive depressions? What influences ship design? And, of course, is it possible to make reliable forecasts? Much has changed in the twenty years since the first edition was published in 1988. Then the industry was struggling out of a deep recession and the second edition, which appeared in 1997, was written in a more prosperous but still disappointing market. However the third
|
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maritime economics.pdf
| 4
|
to make reliable forecasts? Much has changed in the twenty years since the first edition was published in 1988. Then the industry was struggling out of a deep recession and the second edition, which appeared in 1997, was written in a more prosperous but still disappointing market. However the third edition, on which work started in 2002, coincided with one of the great booms in the industry’s history. These contrasting decades provided a unique opportunity to study shipping in feast and famine and I hope the substantially revised third edition has benefited from the insights it provided. This edition retains the structure of its predecessors, but there are many changes and additions. A major innovation is the chapter on the economic history of the maritime business. Introducing an economics book with history is risky, but shipping has five thousand years of documented commercial history. If you’ve got it, why not flaunt it? There is a certain comfort in knowing that others have navigated the same seas many times before and there a lesson to learn. Maritime history surges forward with all the momentum of a VLCC, flattening anything in its path, so shipping investors in their commercial sailboats must keep a sharp lookout for the ‘secular trend’, as well as more immediate, but less threatening, shipping market cycles. The analysis of shipping cycles now extends back to 1741 and the markets chapter includes an expanded section on derivatives which are more widely used than a decade ago. The theoretical supply demand analysis has been updated to introduce vertical mobility of the supply curve. A new chapter tackles the tricky issue of the return on capital in shipping, focussing on the microeconomics of the industry and introducing Preface to the Third Edition xii PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION the ‘risky asset pricing’ (RAP) model. There is also a new chapter on the geography of maritime trade which deals with the physical world in which shipping operates and another on specialised shipping. The other chapters have all been updated, extended and revised where appropriate. Maritime Economics: third edition now has seventeen chapters, the contents of which are summarized in the next section. In producing the three editions I am grateful for the help from many people. For the first and second editions I would like to repeat my thanks to Efthimios Mitropoulos, now SecretaryGeneral of the International Maritime Organization, Professor Costas Grammenos, ProVice Chancellor of City University, London, the late Peter Douglas of Chase Manhattan Bank, Professor Harry Benford of Michigan University, Professor Rigas Doganis, Professor Michael Tamvakis of CASS Business School, the Rt Hon. Gerald Cooper, Dr John Doviak of Cambridge Academy of Transport, Professor Henk Molenaar, Mona Kristiansen of Leif Hoegh & Company, Captain Philip J. Wood, Sir Graham Day, Alan Adams of Shell International Marine, Richard Hext, CEO of Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd, Rogan McLellan, Mark Page Director of Drewry Shipping Consultants, Professor Mary Brooks of Dalhousie University, Bob Crawley, Betsy Nelson, Merrick Raynor, Jonathan Tully, Robert Bennett, John Ferguson and Paul Stott. All provided comments, suggestions and insights from which
|
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] |
maritime economics.pdf
| 5
|
of Shell International Marine, Richard Hext, CEO of Pacific Basin Shipping Ltd, Rogan McLellan, Mark Page Director of Drewry Shipping Consultants, Professor Mary Brooks of Dalhousie University, Bob Crawley, Betsy Nelson, Merrick Raynor, Jonathan Tully, Robert Bennett, John Ferguson and Paul Stott. All provided comments, suggestions and insights from which the present volume benefits. For help with the third edition my thanks are due to Professor Peter B. Marlow, Rawi Nair, and Kiki Mitroussi of Cardiff University, Bill Ebersold, now retired from MARAD, Alan Jamieson, Peter Stokes of Lazards, Jeremy Penn, Chief Executive of the Baltic Exchange, Tony Mason, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping, Richard Greiner, Partner of Moore Stephens, Rogan McLellan, Captain Robert W. Sinclair, Sabine Knapp of IMO, Niels G. StoltNielsen, Sean Day, Chairman of Teekay Shipping Corporation, Susan Cooke, Finance Director of Global Ship Lease, Jean Richards, Director of Quantum Shipping Services, Trevor Crowe and Cliff Tyler, Directors of Clarkson Research Services Ltd, Nick Wood and Tom White of Clarksons newbuilding desk, Bob Knight and Alex Williams of Clarksons Tanker Division, Nick Collins of Clarksons Dry Cargo Division, Alan Ginsberg, CFO of Eagle Bulk Shipping, John Westwood of DouglasWestwood Ltd, Dorthe Bork and her colleagues at Odense Steel Shipyard, Jarle Hammer of Fearnleys, Professor Roar Adland of Clarksons Fund Management, Dr Peter Swift, MD of Intertanko, Professor Knick Harley of Oxford University, Professor Alan Winter of the University of Sussex,, Hamid Seddighi of the University of Sunderland and Erik Bastiensen. Also I would like to thank Randy Young of the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) for his help and enthusiasm in extending the freight cycle statistics back to 1741, my brother John Stopford for many thoughtful discussions and my editor at Routledge, Rob Langham. Finally, finishing this much enlarged book was a daunting task and I owe special thanks to Tony Gray of Lloyds List, Professor Ian Buxton of Newcastle University and Charlie Norse of Massachusetts Maritime Academy for their encouragement, time, knowledge and advice. Martin Stopford, London, 2008 PART 1 INTRODUCTION TO SHIPPING Part 1 addresses the questions of where shipping has come from and where it is now. Chapter 1: Sea Transport and the Global Economy Shipping plays a central part in the global economy, and its welldocumented history, stretching back for 5,000 years, gives maritime economists a unique perspective on the way the industry’s economic mechanisms and institutions have evolved. We find that today’s trading world has evolved over many centuries and history demonstrates the regional center of sea trade is constantly on the move – we call its path the ‘Westline’. By examining the trade of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans we can see where the ‘Westline’ is today. Chapter 2: The Economic Organization of the Shipping Market We give an overview of the market covering the transport system, the demand for sea transport, the merchant fleet, how transport is provided, the role of ports, shipping com pany organization and political influences. PART 2 SHIPPING MARKET ECONOMICS Part 2 sets out the macroeconomic structure of the shipping market to show the
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maritime economics.pdf
| 6
|
overview of the market covering the transport system, the demand for sea transport, the merchant fleet, how transport is provided, the role of ports, shipping com pany organization and political influences. PART 2 SHIPPING MARKET ECONOMICS Part 2 sets out the macroeconomic structure of the shipping market to show the role of market cycles, the forces that drive them, and the commercial environment in which the industry operates. Chapter 3: Shipping Market Cycles Shipping market cycles dominate the industry’s economic thinking. A discussion of the characteristics of shipping cycles leads on to a review of how experts have explained the shipping cycle. The 22 cycles since 1741 are identified from statistical series and Synopsis xiv SYNOPSIS contemporary market reports. A brief account is provided of each cycle, drawing atten tion to the economic mechanism which drove the market up or down and the underly ing secular trend. The chapter ends with some thoughts on the return on capital in shipping and the prediction of shipping cycles. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand and Freight Rates We now take a more detailed look at the economic model of the shipping market which underlies the cyclical nature of the business. The model consists of three components: supply, demand and the freight rate mechanism. The first half of the chapter discusses the ten key variables which influence the supply and demand functions for the shipping industry. The second half examines how freight rates link supply and demand. Emphasis is placed on market dynamics. Chapter 5: The Four Shipping Markets In this chapter we review how the markets actually work. Shipping business is con ducted through four related markets dealing in different commodities, freight, second hand ships, new ships and ships for demolition. We discuss the practicalities of each market and the dynamics of how they are connected by cashflow. As cash flows in and out of shipowners’ balance sheets it influences their behaviour in these markets. PART 3 SHIPPING COMPANY ECONOMICS Turning to microeconomics, we discuss the practical issues facing a firm. How are ship ping costs and revenues structured? How are ships financed? How does the industry make a commercial return on investment? Chapter 6: Costs, Revenue and Financial Performance This chapter discusses the costs and revenues of operating merchant ships. Costs are divided into voyage costs and operating costs. Capital costs are also discussed, though the main review of financing is contained in the next chapter. The final section focuses on company accounts, including the income statement, balance sheet and cashflow statement. We finish with a discussion of cashflow analysis. Chapter 7: Financing Ships and Shipping Companies Finance is the most important item in the shipowner’s cashflow budget. The chapter starts with a review of the many ways ships have been financed in the past, followed by a brief explanation of the world capital markets, showing where the money comes from. Finally the chapter discusses the four main ways of financing ships: equity, debt, new building finance, and leasing. Chapter 8: Risk, Return and Shipping Company Economics Shipping has a history of offering very mediocre
|
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maritime economics.pdf
| 7
|
followed by a brief explanation of the world capital markets, showing where the money comes from. Finally the chapter discusses the four main ways of financing ships: equity, debt, new building finance, and leasing. Chapter 8: Risk, Return and Shipping Company Economics Shipping has a history of offering very mediocre returns over long periods, interspersed by bursts of profitability. This chapter examines the shipping company investment xv SYNOPSIS model and applies the theory of the firm to shipping companies, to establish what deter mines return on investment in shipping and how the shipping industry prices risk. PART 4 SEABORNE TRADE AND TRANSPORT SYSTEMS We turn our attention to cargo and the transport systems which carry it. We begin with the geographical framework of trade, moving on to trade theory and the economic forces that govern trade. Then we examine how the shipping industry transports cargo today, focus ing on the three main segments: bulk shipping, specialized shipping and liner shipping. Chapter 9: The Geography of Maritime Trade The shipping industry adds value by exploiting arbitrages between global markets, and there is a physical dimension to shipping economics, so we must be aware of the geog raphy of maritime trade. This chapter examines the physical world within which this trade takes place, covering the oceans, distances, transit times and the maritime trading network. It concludes with a review of the trade of each of the major economic regions. Chapter 10: The Theory of Maritime Trade Shipping depends on trade, so we must understand why countries trade and why trad ing patterns change. We start with a short summary of trade theory, identifying the var ious explanations for trade. This is followed by a discussion of the supply–demand model used to analyse natural resource based commodity trades. Turning to the actual sea trade of 105 countries, we review the evidence for a relationship between trade and land area, population natural resources and economic activity. Finally, we review the ‘trade development cycle’ and the relationship between sea trade and economic devel opment. Chapter 11: Bulk Cargo and the Economics of Bulk Shipping The widespread use of bulk transport systems to reduce the cost of shipping raw mate rials reshaped the global economy in the twentieth century. The first part of the chapter analyses the principles of bulk transport and bulk handling. It covers the transport system, the transport characteristics of commodities and the development of transport systems for bulk handling. This is followed by a brief account of the various commodi ties shipped in bulk, their economic characteristics and the transport systems employed. Chapter 12: The Transport of Specialized Cargoes In this chapter we study the shipping segments which have been developed to transport those cargoes which can benefit from specialized transport systems. The chapter covers chemicals, liquefied gas, refrigerated cargo, unit labour cargoes, and passenger shipping. Chapter 13: The Economics of Liner Shipping Containerization of liner services was one of the great commercial innovations of the twentieth century. Faster transport and lower costs have made it possible for businesses xvi SYNOPSIS to source materials
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maritime economics.pdf
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covers chemicals, liquefied gas, refrigerated cargo, unit labour cargoes, and passenger shipping. Chapter 13: The Economics of Liner Shipping Containerization of liner services was one of the great commercial innovations of the twentieth century. Faster transport and lower costs have made it possible for businesses xvi SYNOPSIS to source materials and market their products almost anywhere in the world. This chap ter discusses the organization of the liner system, the characteristics of demand and the way the liner business deals with the complex economic framework within which it operates. PART 5 THE MERCHANT FLEET AND TRANSPORT SUPPLY Part 5 is concerned with three key aspects of the supply of merchant ships: the fleet of vessels; shipbuilding and demolition; and the regulatory framework which influences the cost of operating ships and the conditions under which ships can be traded. Chapter 14: The Ships that Supply the Transport In this chapter we discuss the design of merchant ships. The aim is to focus on the way designs have evolved to meet technical and economic objectives. The chapter starts from the three objectives of ship design: efficient cargo containment, operational effi ciency and cost. There follows a discussion of each of the main categories of ship design: liner vessels, liquid bulk, dry bulk, specialist bulk, and service vessels. Chapter 15: The Economics of Merchant Shipbuilding and Scrapping The shipbuilding and ship scrapping industries play a central part in the shipping market model. This chapter starts with a regional review of the location of shipbuilding capac ity. This is followed by a discussion of shipping market cycles in production and prices. A section on the economic principles is followed by a discussion of the technology of the business. Finally there is a section on ship scrapping. Chapter 16: The Regulation of the Maritime Industry This chapter examines the impact of regulation on shipping economics. We identify three key regulatory institutions: the classification societies, the flag states and the coastal states. Each plays a part in making the rules which govern the economic activi ties of shipowners. The classification societies, through the authority of the ‘class cer tificate’, supervise the technical safety of the merchant ships. The flag states make the laws which govern the technical and commercial activities of shipowners registered with them. Finally, the coastal states police the ‘good conduct’ of ships in their waters, notably on environmental issues. PART 6: FORECASTING AND PLANNING Decision makers need to decide what is the best thing to do, and that means analysis and forecasting (though the two are different). Part 6 consists of a single chapter which examines the use of maritime economics to answer these questions. Chapter 17: Maritime Forecasting and Market Research The ‘forecasting paradox’ is that businessmen do not really expect forecasts to be cor rect, yet they continue to use them. There are two different types of ‘forecasts’ used in the shipping industry: market forecasts and market research. Market forecasts cover the market in general, whilst market research applies to a specific decision. Different tech niques are discussed covering each type of study.
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maritime economics.pdf
| 9
|
cor rect, yet they continue to use them. There are two different types of ‘forecasts’ used in the shipping industry: market forecasts and market research. Market forecasts cover the market in general, whilst market research applies to a specific decision. Different tech niques are discussed covering each type of study. We conclude with a review of common forecasting errors. Appendix A: An Introduction to Shipping Market Modelling Appendix B: Tonnage Measurement and Conversion Factors Appendix C: Maritime Economics Freight Index, 1741–2007 xvii SYNOPSIS Abbreviations ACF annual cashflow analysis AG Arabian Gulf bt billion tons btm billion ton miles BTX benzene, toluene, xylene cgrt compensated gross registered tonnage COA contract of affreightment cgt compensated gross tonnage dwt deadweight tonnage EEC European Economic Community FEFC Far East Freight Conference FFA forward freight agreement FPC forest products carrier GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP gross domestic product GNP gross national product GRI general rate increase grt gross registered tonnage gt gross tonnage IACS International Association of Classification Societies ILO International Labour Organization IMCO Intergovernmental Maritime Consultative Organization IMO International Maritime Organization IPO initial public offering IRR internal rate of return ISO International Organization for Standardization xx ABBREVIATIONS ITF International Transport Workers’ Organization LCM lateral cargo mobility LNG liquefied natural gas LOA length overall lolo lift on, lift off LPG liquefied petroleum gas MCR maximum continuous rating m.dwt million tons deadweight MPP multipurpose mt million tons MTBE methyl tertbutyl ether NPV net present value OBO oil/bulk/ore carrier OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries P&I protection and indemnity PCC pure car carrier PCTC pure car and truck carrier PSD parcel size distribution function RFR required freight rate ROI return on investment roro roll on, roll off SDR Special Drawing Right TEU twentyfoot equivalent unit tm ton mile ULCC ultra large crude carrier UN United Nations UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development VCF voyage cashflow analysis VLCC very large crude carrier WS Worldscale (See also Box 5.1 in Chapter 5 for a glossary of essential chartering terms.) 1. Aframax. Tanker carrying around 0.5 million barrels of oil, but usually applied to any tanker of 80,000–120,000 dwt (name derived from old AFRA chartering range). 2. Auxiliary engines. Small diesel engines on the ship used to drive alternators pro viding electrical power. They generally burn diesel oil. Ships generally have between three and five, depending on electricity requirements. 3. Ballast. Sea water pumped into carefully located ballast tanks, or cargo spaces, when the ship is not carrying cargo, to lower the ship in the water so that the pro peller is sufficiently submerged to perform efficiently. 4. Berth. Designated area of quayside where a ship comes alongside to load or dis charge cargo. 5. Bulk carrier. Singledeck ship which carries dry cargoes such as ore, coal, sugar or cereals. Smaller vessels may have their own cranes, whilst larger sizes rely on shore based equipment. 6. Bare boat charter. Similar to a lease. The vessel is chartered to a third party who to all intents and purposes owns it for
|
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] |
maritime economics.pdf
| 10
|
carries dry cargoes such as ore, coal, sugar or cereals. Smaller vessels may have their own cranes, whilst larger sizes rely on shore based equipment. 6. Bare boat charter. Similar to a lease. The vessel is chartered to a third party who to all intents and purposes owns it for the period of the charter, provides the crew, pays operating costs (including maintenance) and voyage costs (bunkers, port dues, canal transit dues, etc.), and directs its operations. 7. Bunkers. Fuel oil burned in ship’s main engine (auxiliaries use diesel) 8. Capesize. Bulk carrier too wide to transit the Panama Canal. Usually over 100,000 tonnes deadweight, but size increases over time, currently 170,000–180,000 dwt. Fifty Essential Shipping Terms xxii FIFTY ESSENTIAL SHIPPING TERMS 9. Charterer. Person or company who hires a ship from a shipowner for a period of time (time charter) or who reserves the entire cargo space for a single voyage (voyage charter). 10. Classification society. Organization, such as Lloyd’s Register, which sets standards for ship construction; supervises standards during construction; and inspects the hull and machinery of a ship classed with the society at regular intervals, awarding the ‘class cer tificate’ required to obtain hull insurance. A ship with a current certificate is ‘in class’. 11. Container. Standard box of length 20 or 40 ft, width 8 ft and height 8 ft 6 in. High cube containers are 9 ft 6 in. high, and containerships are usually designed to carry some of these. 12. Containership. Ship designed to carry containers, with cell guides in the holds into which the containers are lowered. Containers carried on deck are lashed and secured. 13. Compensated gross ton (cgt). Measure of shipbuilding output based on the gross tonnage of the ship multiplied by a cgt coefficient reflecting its work content (see Appendix B). 14. Deadweight (dwt). The weight a ship can carry when loaded to its marks, includ ing cargo, fuel, fresh water, stores and crew. 15. Freeboard. Vertical distance between waterline and top of hull. 16. Freight rate. Amount of money paid to a shipowner or shipping line for the carriage of each unit of cargo (lonne, cubic metre or container load) between named ports. 17. Freight alt kinds (FAK). The standard rate charged per container, regardless of what commodity it is carrying, e.g. FAK rate of $1500 per TEU. 18. FEU. Fortyfoot container (see TEU). 19. Gas tanker. Ship capable of carrying liquid gas at subzero temperatures. Cargo is kept cold by pressure, insulation, and/or refrigeration of ‘boiloff gas’ which is returned to the cargo tanks (see Chapter 14). 20. Gross ton (gt). Internal measurement of the ship’s open spaces. Now calculated from a formula set out in the IMO Tonnage Convention. 21. Handy bulker. Bulk carrier at the smaller end of the range of sizes associated with this type of ship, typically up to 30,000–35,000 tonnes deadweight. Most have their own cargohandling gear. 22. ice class 1A. Ship certified to transit ice of 0.8 m thickness. 23. IMO. International Maritime Organization, the UN agency which is responsible for maritime regulations. 24.
|
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] |
maritime economics.pdf
| 11
|
the range of sizes associated with this type of ship, typically up to 30,000–35,000 tonnes deadweight. Most have their own cargohandling gear. 22. ice class 1A. Ship certified to transit ice of 0.8 m thickness. 23. IMO. International Maritime Organization, the UN agency which is responsible for maritime regulations. 24. Layup. This describes a ship that has been taken out of service because freight rates are too low to cover its operating and maintenance costs Not a welldefined condition, it often just means that the ship has not moved for, say, 3 months. xxiii FIFTY ESSENTIAL SHIPPING TERMS 25. Lashing. Used with twistlocks to stop containers moving in heavy seas. Lashing wires may be secured, for example, from the top corners of the first tier and bottom corners of the second tier. 26. LIBOR. London Interbank Offered Rate, the interest rate at which banks raise funds on the eurodollar market. 27. Lightweight (light displacement tonnage, lwt). Weight of a ship’s hull, machin ery, equipment and spares. This is the basis on which ships are usually sold for scrap, e.g. $200 per lwt. 28. MARPOL. International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (see Chapter 16). 29. Offhire. Time, usually measured in days, during which charter hire payments are suspended because the vessel is not available to trade, for example because of a breakdown or routine repair time. 30. Operating costs (OPEX). Expenses involved in the daytoday running of the ship and incurred whatever trade the ship is engaged in. These include crew wages and expenses, victuailing, stores, spares, repairs and maintenance, lubricants, and insurance. 31. P&l club. Mutual society which provides third party insurance to shipowner members. 32. Panamax. Bulk carrier which can transit Panama Canal where the lock width of 32.5 m is the limiting factor. Vessels of 60,000–75,000 tonnes deadweight fall into this category. ‘Panamax’ is also used to refer to tankers of 60,000–70,000 dead weight. 33. Reefer. Insulated cargo ship for carrying refrigerated food, either frozen or chilled. 34. Reefer container. Insulated container for carrying refrigerated cargo. Some have integral electric refrigeration plant run from a plug on the ship or shore facility. Others receive cold air from central refrigeration unit on ship. 35. Seller’s commission. Fee or commission payable by a seller of a vessel to the broker(s) who has secured her sale. 36. Service agreement. Agreement between container line and shipper to provide freight transport on specified terms. 37. Shipbroker. Individual with current market knowledge who acts as intermediary between buyers and sellers in return for a percentage commission on the transac tion. There are several types of these – for example, chartering brokers deal with cargo; sale and purchase brokers buy and sell ships; newbuilding brokers place con tracts for new ships. 38. SOLAS. Safety of Life at Sea Convention. Important convention setting out the safety regulations with which all merchant ships must comply (see Chapter 16). xxiv FIFTY ESSENTIAL SHIPPING TERMS 39. Special survey. Mandatory examination of the ship’s hull and machinery carried out every five years, or on a rolling basis, by the
|
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maritime economics.pdf
| 12
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of Life at Sea Convention. Important convention setting out the safety regulations with which all merchant ships must comply (see Chapter 16). xxiv FIFTY ESSENTIAL SHIPPING TERMS 39. Special survey. Mandatory examination of the ship’s hull and machinery carried out every five years, or on a rolling basis, by the classification society with which the vessel is classed. 40. Spot rate. Negotiated rate per unit (tonne, cubic metre, etc.) of cargo paid to the shipowner to carry specific cargo between two ports, say US Gulf to Japan. Voyage costs are paid by the shipowner. 41. String (of containerships). The number of containerships needed to maintain a regular service on a specific route (‘loop’). For example, a string of four ships is needed to run a transatlantic loop. 42. Suezmax. Tanker able to transit Suez Canal fully loaded; carries about 1 million barrels of oil. Tankers of 120,000–200,000 dwt are grouped into this category. 43. Tanker. Ship designed for the carriage of liquid in bulk with cargo space consist ing of several tanks. Tankers carry a wide variety of products, including crude oil, refined products, liquid gas and wine. Parcel tankers have a separate pump and cargo lining for each tank so that many cargo parcels can be carried separately in the ship. 44. TEU. Twentyfoot equivalent unit (a 40 ft container is 2 TEU). 45. Time charter. A transportation contract under which the charterer has the use of the vessel for a specific period. A fixed daily or monthly payment is made for the hire of the vessel, for example $20,000 per day. Under this arrangement, the owner manages the daytoday running of the ships, and pays the operating and capital costs. The charterer pays fuel, port charges, loading/discharging fees and other cargorelated costs, and directs the ship operations. 46. Time charter equivalent. The spot freight rate (e.g. $20 per tonne for a 40,000 tonne cargo) converted into a daily hire rate for the voyage (e.g. $20,000 per day) by deducting voyage costs from the gross freight and dividing by the days on the voyage, including necessary ballast time. 47. Tonne. Metric ton, equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 2,240 lbs. 48. Twistlock. Devices used to join and lock containers to those above and below them by clamping the adjacent corner castings together. ‘Cones’ fit into apertures in the corner castings and turn to lock them in place. Used with lashing wires and bars. 49. VLCC. Very large crude carrier, generally carries about 2 million barrels of oil, but all tankers over 200,000 dwt are grouped into this category. 50. Voyage costs. The cost of fuel, port expenses and canal costs which are specific to the voyage. On a voyage charter where the ports are specified they are generally included in the negotiated spot rate and paid by the shipowner. On a time charter where the ports are not known in advance they are paid by the charterer. Part 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N T O S H I P P I N G Sea
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maritime economics.pdf
| 13
|
spot rate and paid by the shipowner. On a time charter where the ports are not known in advance they are paid by the charterer. Part 1 I N T R O D U C T I O N T O S H I P P I N G Sea Transport and the Global Economy Wonders are many on earth, and the greatest of these Is man, who rides the ocean and takes his way Through the deeps, through windswept valleys of perilous seas That surge and sway. (The chorus in Sophocles’Antigone, 422 BC, trans. R.C. Jebb) 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION Characteristics of the business Shipping is a fascinating business. Since the first cargoes were moved by sea more than 5,000 years ago it has been at the forefront of global development. The epic voyages of Columbus, Diaz and Magellan opened the maritime highways of the world, and the same pioneering spirit brought supertankers,1 containerships, and the complex fleet of specialized ships which each year transport a ton of cargo for every person in the world. No business is more exciting. The great shipping boom of 2004 swept the industry from rags to riches in little more than a year, making its fortunate investors some of the wealthiest people in the world. This sort of volatility created superstars like Niarchos and Onassis, and a few villains like Tidal Marine, which built up a 700,000 dwt (dead weight tonnage) shipping fleet in the early 1970s and were indicted with a number of their bankers for fraudulently obtaining more than $60 million in loans.2 Our task in this book is to understand the economics of the industry. What makes it so interesting to economists is that the shipping investors who grapple with shipping risk are so visible, and their activities so well documented, that we can blend theory and practice. For all their flamboyance, they operate within a strict economic regime, which would be immediately recognizable by nineteenthcentury classical economists. It is, more or less, the ‘perfect’market place at work, an economic Jurassic Park where the dinosaurs of clas sical economics roam free and consumers get a very good deal – there are not many monopolies in shipping! Occasionally the investors miscalculate, as in the remarkable episode in 1973 when investors in the tanker market ordered over 100 million tons deadweight (m.dwt) of supertankers, for which there turned out to be no demand. Some went from the builder’s yard straight into layup, and few ever operated to their full economic potential. Or occasionally they run short of ships and rates go sky high, as they did during the booms of 1973 and 2004–8. But generally they ‘deliver the goods’ economically as well as physically at a cost which, on average, has increased surprisingly little over the years.3 Because shipping is such an old industry, with a history of continuous change, sometimes gradual and occasionally calamitous, we have a unique opportunity to learn from the past. Time and again we find that shipping and trade greased the slipway4 from which the world economy was launched on
|
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maritime economics.pdf
| 14
|
the years.3 Because shipping is such an old industry, with a history of continuous change, sometimes gradual and occasionally calamitous, we have a unique opportunity to learn from the past. Time and again we find that shipping and trade greased the slipway4 from which the world economy was launched on new voyages in whatever political and economic vessel history had devised for it. No other industry had played such a central part in these economic voyages over thousands of years – the airline industry, shipping’s closest counterpart, has barely 50 years of economic history to study! So before we plunge into the details of the shipping business as it is today, we will spend a little time studying the history of this ancient global industry to see how the economics worked in practice and where the industry is today in its latest epic voyage of globalization.5 The role of sea trade in economic development The importance of sea transport in the early stages of economic development is well known to economists. In Chapter 3 of The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, Adam Smith argued that the key to success in a capitalist society is the division of labour. As productivity increases and businesses produce more goods than they can sell locally, they need access to wider markets. He illustrated the point with the famous example of making pins. Working alone, ten craftsmen can produce less than 100 pins a day, but if each specializes in a single task, together they can produce 48,000 pins a day. This is far too many to sell locally, so unlocking the power of ‘division of labour’ depends on transport, and this is where shipping had a crucial part to play: As by means of water carriage a more extensive market is opened to every sort of industry than what land carriage alone can afford it, so it is upon the seacoast, and along the banks of navigable rivers, that industry of every kind naturally begins to subdivide and improve itself, and it is frequently not until a long time after that those improvements extend themselves to the inland parts of the country.6 In primitive economies shipping is generally more efficient than land transport, allowing trade to get started earlier. Adam Smith paints a graphic picture of the economic benefits offered by sea transport in the eighteenth century: A broad wheeled wagon attended by two men and drawn by eight horses in about six weeks time carries and brings back between London and Edinburgh nearly 4 tons weight of goods. In about the same time a ship navigated by six or eight men, and sailing between the ports of London and Leith, frequently carries and brings back 200 ton weight of goods.7 4 SEA TRANSPORT AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY C H A P T E R 1 5 INTRODUCTION 1.1 C H A P T E R 1 That is a labour productivity benefit of 15 times. By exploiting economies of scale and integrated transport systems, shipping continues to demonstrate Adam Smith’s insight. Today a lorry
|
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maritime economics.pdf
| 15
|
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY C H A P T E R 1 5 INTRODUCTION 1.1 C H A P T E R 1 That is a labour productivity benefit of 15 times. By exploiting economies of scale and integrated transport systems, shipping continues to demonstrate Adam Smith’s insight. Today a lorry carrying one 40foot container from Felixstowe to Edinburgh might be competing with a small containership carrying 200 containers. Or a truck hauling 40 tons of oil along our congested highways competes with a coastal oil tanker carrying 4,000 tons of oil by sea. Ships now travel at speeds that trucks can hardly match on congested urban roads and at a fraction of the cost. No wonder the oceans are the highways of eco nomic development, an aspect of the business which hardly changes with the centuries. Many practical aspects of the business have not changed either. For example the bill of lading from AD 236 in Box 1.1 shows that Roman shipowners worried just as much about demurrage as shipowners do today. But new generations of shipowners also face new challenges, and shipping companies that do not adapt, however big or prestigious they may be, soon discover how ruthless the shipping market is in forcing the pace of change. History of maritime development – the Westline So in this chapter we are not just concerned with history. Winston Churchill said ‘the further backward I look the further forward I can see’,8 and if he was right, the ship ping industry is in a unique position to learn from its past about the economics of the maritime business. The evo lution of sea transport is a welltravelled road which we can even plot on a map. Over 5,000 years, whether by chance or some deeply hidden economic force, the commer cial centre of maritime trade has moved west along the line shown by the arrows in Figure 1.1. This ‘Westline’ started in Mesopotamia in 3000 BC, and progressed to Tyre in the eastern Mediterranean then to Rhodes, the Greek mainland and Rome. A thousand years ago Venice (and soon after Genoa) became the crossroads for BOX 1.1 A BILL OF LADING, AD 236 This bill of lading is given by Aurelius Heracles, son of Dioscorus of Antaeopolis, master of his own ship of 250 artabae burden, without any figurehead, to Aurelius Arius, son of Heraclides, senator of Arsinoe, capital of Fayum, for the carriage of 250 artabae of vegetable seed, to be conveyed from the haven of the Grove to the capital of Arisonoe in the haven of Oxyrhynchus, the freightage agreed on being 100 clean silver drachmae, whereof he has received 40 drachmae, the remaining 60 drachmae he is to receive when he lands the cargo; which cargo he shall land safe and undamaged by any nautical mishap; and he shall take for the journey two days, from the 25th, and likewise he shall remain at Oxyrhynchus four days; and if he be delayed after that time he, the master, shall receive 16 drachmae per day for himself; and he the master
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maritime economics.pdf
| 16
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and undamaged by any nautical mishap; and he shall take for the journey two days, from the 25th, and likewise he shall remain at Oxyrhynchus four days; and if he be delayed after that time he, the master, shall receive 16 drachmae per day for himself; and he the master shall provide a sufficient number of sailors and all the tackle of the ship; and he shall receive likewise for a libation at Oxyrhynchus one ceramion of wine. This bill of lading is valid, in the third year of Emperor Caesar Gaius Julius Verus Maximus the Pious, the fortunate, the 22nd of Phaophi (Oct. 19th). Source: The British Museum, London 6 SEA TRANSPORT AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY C H A P T E R 1 trade between the Mediterranean and the emerging northwestern European centres of Cologne, Bruges, Antwerp and Amsterdam. Meanwhile the Hanseatic towns were open ing up trading links with the Baltic and Russia. The two streams merged in Amsterdam in the seventeenth century and London in the eighteenth. By the nineteenth century steamships carried the Westline across the Atlantic, and North America became a lead ing centre of sea trade. Finally, in the twentieth century commerce took another giant step west across the Pacific as Japan, South Korea, China and India picked up the baton of growth. This evolution of maritime trade was led successively by Babylon, Tyre, Corinth, Rhodes, Athens, Rome, Venice, Antwerp, Amsterdam, London, New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai. At each step along the Westline there was an economic struggle between adjacent shipping supercentres as the old centre gave way to the new challenger, leaving a trail like the wake of a ship that has circumnavigated the world. The maritime tradition, political alignments, ports, and even the economic wealth of the different regions are the product of centuries of this economic evolution in which merchant shipping has played a major part. In this chapter we will try to understand why Europe triggered the expansion rather than China, India or Japan, which were also major civilizations during this period. Fernand Braudel, the French trade historian, distinguished the world economy from a world economy which ‘only concerns a fragment of the world, an economically autonomous section of the planet able to provide for most of its own needs, a section to which its internal links and exchanges give a certain organic unity’.9 From this perspective Figure 1.1 The Westline: 5,000 years of maritime trading centres Source: Stopford (1988) 7 THE ORIGINS OF SEA TRADE, 3000 BC TO AD 1450 1.2 C H A P T E R 1 shipping’s achievement, along with the airlines and telecommunications, was to link Braudel’s fragmented worlds into the single global economy we have today. The discussion in the remainder of this chapter is divided into four sections. The first era, stretching from 3000 BC to AD 1450, is concerned with the early history of shipping, and the development of trade in the Mediterranean and northwestern Europe. This takes us up to the middle of the fifteenth century when Europe remained
|
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