id stringlengths 36 36 | source stringclasses 15
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efc53be9-d9db-4040-bae6-b6557236e14e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Set
A __set__ is an unordered collection of distinct [objects](https://arbital.com/p/-5xx). The objects in a set are typically referred to as its __elements__. A set is usually denoted by listing all of its elements between braces. For example, $\{1, 3, 2\}$ denotes a set of three numbers, and because sets are unorder... |
e7abee82-d423-4c78-9511-a7f80e81a878 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You should read Hobbes, Locke, Hume, and Mill via EarlyModernTexts.com
Many thinkers worth reading wrote in past centuries:
* 1600s: Bacon, Hobbes, Descartes, Spinoza, Locke, Leibniz
* 1700s: Berkeley, Hume, Rousseau, Smith, Kant, Burke, Bentham
* 1800s: Schopenhauer, Mill, Sidgwick
Some of them wrote in English ... |
6a8890f1-9541-46f6-83b0-4693ee9100a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utilitarian discernment bleg
People who're engaging in learning partly or wholly for the explicit purpose of human capital need to be strategic about their learning choices. Only some subjects develop human capital useful to the person's goals. Within each subject, only some subtopics develop useful human capital. Eve... |
9dbcd0c4-0875-4578-a13e-3d31e0fdb08c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why does an AI have to have specified goals?
Humans don't have single overriding goals that determine everything we do. We have some general goals - stay alive, be happy, be good, reproduce, etc. And there are a lot of other things we do that can be thought of us asu goals towards achieving top level goals.
But real... |
7f393bd4-7acd-4e2e-9841-9db7268cae53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How was your meetup?
Lots of meetups recently - great to see! We hear surprisingly little about them here on LW. Did you attend or host a meetup recently? How did it go? |
a640c874-04d5-4653-8a19-4e0e374caccc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Multi-Agent Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning (RL) methods are becoming increasingly successful at optimizing reward signals in complex, high dimensional environments (Espeholt et al., [2018](#bib.bib10)).
A key limitation of RL, however, is the difficul... |
1bc598be-3567-40c0-998f-eba03c0b6057 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why are obvious meanings veiled?
Why do people use veiled language even when both parties likely know the real message? For instance if a boy asks a girl up for coffee after a date, nobody is likely to miss the cliched connotation, so why not be direct? The same question goes for many other threats, bribes, requests ... |
937052f8-3caf-4d88-a0af-41469487baa1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 'Sparks of AGI' - Bombshell GPT-4 Paper: Fully Read w/ 15 Revelations
less than 24 hours ago a report was
released that will Echo around the world
it is 154 pages and I just finished
reading and digesting all of them yes
that includes the appendices and no I
didn't use gpt4 it revealed in a
nutshell that gpt4 ... |
f119fae7-2c71-4020-abbf-99e1fb697ba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] "Can't Say No" Spending
Today's post, "Can't say no" Spending was originally published on 18 October 2007. I decided to include it based on feedback in the open thread. It is a very short entry so there is no real need for a summary:
> The remarkable observation that medical spending has zero net marginal... |
02477e09-6065-4f1b-8820-8b1d54aead85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin Meetup
WHEN: 01 December 2012 07:30:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: MingDynastie, Brückenstraße 6, 10179 Berlin
This will mainly be a social meetup with games and discussion.
* Helen: Resistance game
* Christian: Plans, Commitments, Predictions
As usual, the... |
0c8b1b2e-8ccc-4040-b5f1-ea83acecde1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Bay Area Winter Solstice 2023
Bay Area Winter Solstice 2023 will be held on December 16 at the Freight & Salvage in downtown Berkeley!
Tickets are available at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/bay-area-winter-solstice-2023-tickets-721678057497.
See the official event page at https://fb.me/1QOVAoRFRHROxgK for more... |
8990035f-2f09-4be7-a29a-c1a6994188b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Supposing that the "Dead Internet Theory" is true or largely true, how can we act on that information?
The "Dead Internet Theory" (DIT) is defined by Wikipedia as follows:
> The dead Internet theory is an online conspiracy theory that asserts, due to a coordinated and intentional effort, the Internet since 2016 or 20... |
9d8429a1-a049-489e-8827-b4d5469d98a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is cybercrime really costing trillions per year?
Many sources report that cybercrime costs the global economy trillions of dollars per year. It is the top Google search result and it is quoted on Wikipedia. But I am not able to track down how the number was computed, or find criticism of these numbers.
This would be ... |
85b3b18f-8a16-4e1a-b309-71076936636d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frontpage Posting and Commenting Guidelines
Welcome to the new LessWrong! Our goal with the LessWrong frontpage is to host high-quality discussion on a wide range of topics, in a way that allows users to make better collective progress toward the truth.
New posts automatically get posted to a user's personal blog, wh... |
4cca2a3e-d731-4c4b-968c-c86fe42baee1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolving to Extinction
It is a very common misconception that an evolution works for the good of its species. Can you remember hearing someone talk about two rabbits breeding eight rabbits and thereby "contributing to the survival of their species"? A modern evolutionary biologist would never say such a thing; they'd ... |
1d094056-c91b-4b7e-aeaa-b4b610c76874 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AXRP Episode 22 - Shard Theory with Quintin Pope
[Google Podcasts link](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9heHJwb2RjYXN0LmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/ODVlM2RkNmItMTdkZi00MWYwLTg2YjAtOWIxY2JkOTBlYjgw)
What can we learn about advanced deep learning systems by understanding how humans learn and form values over... |
ee08455f-e177-48e6-ab90-14336347bd58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Categories of Arguing Style : Why being good among rationalists isn't enough to argue with everyone
tl;dr : We overgeneralize the way we personally come up with concepts. People, notably outside of LW and inside of Academia, argue by referring themselves to diverse and starkly different ways of coming up with concepts... |
ea30b973-4885-4e63-9f0f-53c0c1df08a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revitalizing Less Wrong seems like a lost purpose, but here are some other ideas
This is a response to ingres' recent post sharing Less Wrong survey results. If you haven't read & upvoted it, I strongly encourage you to--they've done a fabulous job of collecting and presenting data about the state of the community.
S... |
40520af5-1fbb-451e-9690-585432dd67e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theory of Ideal Agents, or of Existing Agents?
Within the context of AI safety, why do we want a theory of agency? I see two main reasons:
* We expect AI have agenty properties, so we want to know how to design agenty systems which e.g. perform well in a maximally wide array of environments, and which reason about t... |
425b094c-7e93-4de9-a856-d5bc7a150d0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consider Reconsidering Pascal's Mugging
[Epistemic Status: confident considering the outside view]
The Pascal’s Mugging dilemma is this: a random person walks up to you in the street and says that if you don’t give them a dollar, they’ll destroy the earth tomorrow. Do you pay? Since the probability of them doing so c... |
79882be6-e301-45ef-86de-9d1c456a97bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A study in Science on memory conformity
I believe this may be a good addition to the cognitive bias literature:
> Following the Crowd: Brain Substrates of Long-Term Memory Conformity
> 1. Micah Edelson1,*,
> 2. Tali Sharot2,
> 3. Raymond J. Dolan2,
> 4. Yadin Dudai1
>
> 1Department of Neurobiology, Weizmann ... |
8fb8389e-f292-49a2-b259-499994c410ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hammertime Day 2: Yoda Timers
This is part 2 of 30 in the Hammertime Sequence. Click here for the intro.
> No! Try not! Do, or do not. There is no try.
> —Yoda
There's a copy of Barney Stinson in my head who pops up every so often to say: "Challenged Accepted!" When Eliezer wrote about the biggest mistakes in the Se... |
b35f5f1f-94b1-4e73-88b5-ad99de1dce16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | When is intent alignment sufficient or necessary to reduce AGI conflict?
In this post, we look at conditions under which [*Intent Alignment isn't Sufficient*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/oNQGoySbpmnH632bG/when-does-technical-work-to-reduce-agi-conflict-make-a#Intent_Alignment_isn_t_Sufficient_)or [*Intent Alignmen... |
d9733c4e-15f7-4cbe-80af-8efdb5e7a168 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Series of Increasingly Perverse and Destructive Games
Related to: Higher Than the Most High
The linked post describes a game in which (I fudge a little), Omega comes to you and two other people, and ask you to tell him an integer. The person who names the largest integer is allowed to leave. The other two are ... |
476b58f2-e567-4430-87b6-04601c3279a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Fiction] The boy in the glass dome
A boy is sitting inside a glass dome. It would just barely have enough space for him to stand.
It’s night, and he’s watching the stars. He has been doing that for a long time.
There’s a small tube attached to the bottom of the dome. A miniature cargo train runs through that tube, ... |
af8ed35f-2bcf-429d-8ba8-e8aac0155483 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is altruistic deception really necessary? Social activism and the free market
I've said before that social reform often seems to require lying. Only one-sided narratives offering simple solutions motivate humans to act, so reformers manufacture one-sided narratives such as we find in Marxism or radical feminism, whic... |
9fbde7fd-a95f-4959-a95a-0c5031d0b278 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't be Pathologically Mugged!
In a lot of discussion here, there's been talk about how decision algorithms would do for PD, Newcomb's Probmel, Parfit's Hitchhiker, and Counterfactual Mugging.
There's a reasonable chain there, but especially for the last one, there's a bit of a concern I've had about the overal patt... |
f20f0123-31a5-4aa7-8359-4db35128131a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | E-Prime
I found this and thought we could find a use for it.
> Wikipedia describes E-Prime, short for English-Prime, as a modified form of English. E-Prime uses very slightly simplified syntax and vocabulary, eliminating all forms of the verb to be.
>
> Some people use E-Prime as a mental discipline to filter speech... |
a7eeaa8a-303a-48a1-8010-d378c2e76db2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we in an AI overhang?
Over on Developmental Stages of GPTs, orthonormal mentions
> it at least reduces the chance of a hardware overhang.
An overhang is when you have had the ability to build transformative AI for quite some time, but you haven't because no-one's realised it's possible. Then someone does and sur... |
7b97d290-e8f3-44c0-8c8e-9ee0e59533e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Case Study of Motivated Continuation
I am not wholly unsympathetic to the many commenters in Torture vs. Dust Specks who argued that it is preferable to inflict dust specks upon the eyes of 3^^^3 (amazingly huge but finite number of) people, rather than torture one person for 50 years. If you think that a dust spec... |
6692333e-4861-48d6-bf98-c1fd08faae91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contest: An Alien Message
Scenario
You're not certain that aliens are real. Even after receiving that email from your friend who works at NASA, with the subject line "What do you make of this?" and a single binary file attached, you're still not certain. It's rather unlikely that aliens would be near enough to Earth t... |
657b9f11-1f83-4f5a-b926-58e495aea581 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Best Virtual Worlds for "Hanging Out"
UPDATES Sept 5 2020
* Online Town is now Gather Town. They have continued to ship new features and improve their service in the past few months.
* There are several apps similar to Gather Town now. My favorite is Topia. It is less stable / performant than Gather Town, but a... |
a2da0280-8a26-44ad-ae58-6c8be6237110 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Gearing Up for Long Timelines in a Hard World
*Tl;dr: My current best plan for technical alignment is to work on: (1) Improving our gears-level understanding of the internals & their dynamics of advanced AI systems, and (2) work on pathways decorrelated with progress in the first direction - likely in the form of* [*p... |
9792b77e-b333-43b2-bf07-aea7be7d65df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retirement leads to loss of cognitive abilities
Here's something I found after surfing a few links. Given the interest in intelligence augmentation and biological immortality here, I figured you guys would find it useful to know; I wasn't particularly planning on retiring (given biological immortality or uploading ... |
b30d90cc-79d3-4e96-b468-29ab9ec0f1d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Principles For Product Liability (With Application To AI)
There were several responses to What I Would Do If I Were Working On AI Governance which focused on the liability section, and had similar criticisms. In particular, I’ll focus on this snippet as a good representative:
> Making cars (or ladders or knives or pr... |
1bf92b14-1783-4e7c-bc91-ff5b8c398e42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outline of a lower bound for consciousness
This is a summary of an article I'm writing on consciousness, and I'd like to hear opinions on it. It is the first time anyone has been able to defend a numeric claim about subjective consciousness.
ADDED: Funny no one pointed out this connection, but the purpose of this a... |
138cb8f3-9f55-49fd-95f9-84dca2f95e98 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Graphical tensor notation for interpretability
*[This is dual-use information. Please let me know whether you think its impact will be net-negative, or use* [*this poll*](https://strawpoll.com/w4nWrXkzdyA) *if you have an opinion either way.]*
![](https://res.cloudinary.com/lesswrong-2-0/image/upload/f_auto,q_auto/v1... |
31caecc1-014a-4562-b5b1-4d7ee5ecd6fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Content generation. Where do we draw the line?
If you want to be affected by other people, if you want to live in a culture with other people, then I believe 4 statements below are true:
* You can't generate all of your "content".
This would basically mean living in the Matrix without other people. Consumerist soli... |
a1af2b2f-0021-414c-b977-faa1709d7cd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Singlethink
Today's post, Singlethink was originally published on 06 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The path to rationality begins when you see a great flaw in your existing art, and discover a drive to improve, to create new skills beyond the helpful but inadequate ones you found in ... |
b52775b0-ddd3-491e-9dfc-392a55ae94bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | US Military Global Information Dominance Experiments
Recently, the US military gave a briefing on what I take to be the current state of the art capabilities for using ML for intelligence gathering. Some quotes worth highlighting follow, with some notes and impressions at the bottom.
> The Global Information Dominanc... |
6ae4b0de-d0c9-4afe-af13-242ea50a1cfc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EIS III: Broad Critiques of Interpretability Research
Part 3 of 12 in the Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence.
Right now, interpretability is a major subfield in the machine learning research community. As mentioned in EIS I, there is so much work in interpretability that there is now a database of 5199 interpretabi... |
291149b1-257f-4c9b-8e23-04b5fe199862 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Counterfactual Strategies
Link:
Counterintuitive Counterfactual Strategies
Overview:
Over the weekend, I was thinking about the variant of Newcomb's Paradox where both boxes are transparent. The one where, unless you precommit to taking a visibly empty box instead of both boxes, omega can self-consiste... |
c0d39b17-1c2f-42c1-b157-6c574f3a6ee1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Prepared to wait? New research challenges the idea that we favour small rewards now over bigger later
http://bps-research-digest.blogspot.com/2012/07/prepared-to-wait-new-research.html
> The old idea that we make decisions like rational agents has given way over the last few decades to a more realistic, psycho... |
e7ec4eba-7d04-4da4-ac5d-e8f77c1c8917 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | I'm Buck Shlegeris, I do research and outreach at MIRI, AMA
**EDIT: I'm only going to answer a few more questions, due to time constraints. I might eventually come back and answer more. I still appreciate getting replies with people's thoughts on things I've written.**
I'm going to do an AMA on Tuesday next week (Nov... |
8901d22e-fe59-4713-bef0-dbbc489dee4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Regime Day 23: TAPs 2
Introduction
N. K. Jemisin:
> Seasons will reduce the world to such miserly dreams.
When I read this, my first thought was "just like adulthood."
Children have dreams. When I was little, I wanted to be a nuclear physicist. I didn't really know what that meant, but I wanted to be one.... |
a89df747-78d0-44da-b34b-a54b8321c0cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experiments are in the territory, results are in the map
I recently read Thomas Kuhn's book The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Scott Alexander wrote up a review years ago, which I mention so that I don't have to summarize the book. The claim in Kuhn's book which I want to focus on is that the same experiment mig... |
721ca528-3d0c-4a77-877a-a9157c2eccf6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are"ingroups" vs. "outgroups" as commonly used typically based on self-identification or is it not sufficient?
Wikipedia says:
"In sociology and social psychology, an in-group is a social group to which a person psychologically identifies as being a member. By contrast, an out-group is a social group with which an i... |
e23ee280-a3fa-4f99-af95-86cfe3f32c21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Replacing Rewards with Examples: Example-Based Policy Search via Recursive Classification
1 Introduction
---------------
In supervised learning settings, tasks are defined by data: what causes a car detector to detect cars is not the choice of loss function (which might be the same as for an airplane detector), but... |
fd66d336-b595-48b3-b66e-38e22a5f1eeb | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(If you're familiar with the backstory of the LWSH, you can skip to paragraph 5. If you just want the link to the chat, click here: LWSH on Complice)
The Less Wrong Study Hall was created as a tinychat room in March 2013, following Mqrius and ShannonFriedman's desire to create a virtual context for productivity. In re... |
9e1457d5-746d-4512-ba9b-1bd2c6ff668d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for Volunteers at Global Future 2045
This post is on behalf of Amy Willey, former MIRI employee who is Volunteer Coordinator for GF 2045.
One of the most exciting futurist events this year will be Global Future 2045, in New York City on June 15-16.
They need volunteers! You can apply to be a volunteer here.
... |
8ecdc70f-27f6-4d6a-b8cc-9d1aca4b561c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solar Arc Faults
Our solar install has shut itself down after detecting an arc fault four times since we installed it eighteen months ago: 2019-03-24, 2019-04-10, 2019-08-17, and 2020-02-17. The 2019-04-10 shutdown was with error code 4301 while the other three were with code 8206. Per the manual for our SunnyBoy 5.0 ... |
b91d2694-66e2-4fed-a6d5-0e3879626f2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The genetic cost of tyranny
We may feel sympathy when we read about people killed for protesting in Syria, Bahrain, Libya, and other countries. But tyranny isn't just something happening to unfortunate people somewhere else. It's an existential risk to human civilization.
Civilization - even tribalism - relies on a... |
d0757732-cd81-4991-b305-b667d1a88318 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Model-based utility functions
Journal of Artificial General Intelligence 3(1) 1-24, 2012 Submitted 2011-09-01
DOI: 10.2478/v10229-011-0013-5 Accepted 2012-04-25
© 2011 Hibbard; Distributed under Crea tive Commons Attribution License
Model-based Utility Functions
Bill Hibbard
Space Science and Engineering Cent... |
20d7ba4e-5ed7-4214-a879-a622271a45dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you post links here?
I read an essay that would be good for Less Wrong, but I'm not sure how to post it. The "link post" feature seems to be about posting your own work? How do you share someone else's work? |
aa975f3d-b929-4f63-98f8-c0a7026ce547 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Women- Minimizing the Inferential Distance
Standard Intro
The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.
About two months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There is a LOT of material, s... |
3b1b4362-5164-4191-819c-c5477b27b6f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI misalignment risk from GPT-like systems?
Right now, it seems that the most likely way we're gonna get an (intellectually) universal AI is by scaling models such as GPT. That is, models trained by self-supervised learning on massive piles of data, perhaps with a similar architecture to the transformer.
I do not se... |
8ae46c72-9017-431b-91b5-990a502ca4ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Committing, Assuming, Externalizing, and Internalizing
This is the tenth post in the Cartesian frames sequence.
Here, we define a bunch of ways to construct new (additive/multiplicative) (sub/super)-(agents/environments) from a given Cartesian frame. Throughout this post, we will start with a single Cartesian frame o... |
e2d7b528-f977-4d28-bbfe-fe3d475690d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Village and the River Monsters... Or: Less Fighting, More Brainstorming
Cross-posted from The Ginnungagap Foundation. This story contrasts the status quo of human politics with what I would expect rational politics to look like.
It is apparent to me that making human politics more constructive is a low-hanging... |
72f22d71-c217-44e0-a1fa-85203d1cff96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-Aging: State of the Art
Aging is a problem that ought to be solved, and most Less Wrongers recognize this. However, few members of the community seem to be aware of the current state of the anti-aging field, and how close we are to developing effective anti-aging therapies. As a result, there is a much greater (... |
5cc70882-8abb-462b-ab9c-781a81ad42b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Vaniver's ELK Submission
*You can see the actual submission (including a more formalized model)* [*here*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1VQcRtsPsf7-Yp6OfucyErpKm6YEdQR-mlNQciq5ZKC0/edit?usp=sharing)*, and the contest details* [*here*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals)*. I... |
f1755c07-e7a8-468a-a025-d79cbf82164f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: The Dawn of Everything
Book review: The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber and David Wengrow.
This book is about narratives of human progress. I.e. the natural progression from egalitarian bands of maybe 20 people, to tribes, to chiefdoms, to states, with increasing inequality... |
aaaddcc3-1e63-4a34-942f-964803116c8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Smoking Lesion Steelman III: Revenge of the Tickle Defense
I improve the theory I put forward last time a bit, locate it in the literature, and discuss conditions when this approach unifies CDT and EDT.
----------------------------------------
Improvements
Where I left off last time, I proposed that decisions shoul... |
ed318a38-914f-4789-9a0d-eeba95be6377 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Choosing universities based on their major-specific strengths for undergraduate education
Prospective undergraduates generally choose universities based on their overall reputation along dimensions such as academics, grading standards, social life, cost, peer group, etc. In the United States, there's a small list of t... |
f9a5ff93-f068-4bbc-b76a-1315a1865152 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Soul of the Writer (on LLMs, the psychology of writers, and the nature of intelligence)
> “GPT is not like us — but it is of us. It has read more of humanity's writing than any human, ever, by orders of magnitude. All of its behaviors, good and bad, hold up a mirror to the human soul.”
>
> — “[Sam Altman asks: Sh... |
407514a4-3531-4696-880d-7bde737b6ae4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Connor Leahy on Dying with Dignity, EleutherAI and Conjecture
I talked to Connor Leahy about Yudkowsky's antimemes in [Death with Dignity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy), common misconceptions about EleutherAI and his new AI Alignment company [Conjectu... |
7208c86a-ac3b-4f1b-ba0c-ebaae461efce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Primer On Chaos
Consider a billiards table:
The particular billiards table we’ll use is one we dug out of the physicists’ supply closet, nestled in between a spherical cow and the edge of an infinite plane. The billiard balls are all frictionless, perfectly spherical, bounce perfectly elastically off of other bal... |
ba3f1df2-ad23-4107-b811-c170f52d6189 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Individual IQ Worries
[Related to: Attitude vs. Altitude]
I.
I WRITE A LOT ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF IQ RESEARCH, AND I TRY TO DEBUNK PSEUDOSCIENTIFIC CLAIMS THAT IQ “ISN’T REAL” OR “DOESN’T MATTER” OR “JUST SHOWS HOW WELL YOU DO ON A TEST”. IQ IS ONE OF THE BEST-STUDIED IDEAS IN PSYCHOLOGY, ONE OF OUR BEST PR... |
45bff5e5-e9a9-462d-8032-9f1cf61f4954 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Small Negative Result on Debate
Some context for this new arXiv paper from my group at NYU:
* We're working toward sandwiching experiments using our QuALITY long-document QA dataset, with reading time playing the role of the the expertise variable. Roughly: Is there some way to get humans to reliably answer hard r... |
57552d0d-588d-43b8-9326-61c27aac8781 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It is OK to publicly make a mistake and change your mind
At a recent meetup, we tried having a structured discussion in which we would all choose to talk about a belief that influences our behavior, talk about something we protect, or talk about a mistake we once made and have corrected. And it seemed that people thou... |
87c11cef-8a08-43b8-b458-d65f3908f3ed | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Due in part to Eliezer's writing style (e.g. not many citations), and in part to Eliezer's scholarship preferences (e.g. his preference to figure out much of philosophy on his own), Eliezer's Sequences don't accurately reflect the close agreement between the content of The Sequences and work previously done in mainstr... |
425b5a77-2a9b-4d77-ae2d-189b5a795ea8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Can We Reverse The Stanford Prison Experiment?
From the Harvard Business Review, an article entitled: "Can We Reverse The Stanford Prison Experiment?"
By: Greg McKeown
Posted: June 12, 2012
Clicky Link of Awesome! Wheee! Push me!
Summary:
Royal Canadian Mounted Police attempt a program where they hand out "... |
d5ffb494-ff91-4ff1-988a-a0fae4318670 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What goals will AIs have? A list of hypotheses
My colleagues and I have written a scenario in which AGI-level AI systems are trained around 2027 using something like the current paradigm: LLM-based agents (but with recurrence/neuralese) trained with vast amounts of outcome-based reinforcement learning on diverse chall... |
3dc3ce92-efc3-4b9b-b3ed-fe4efe07bb4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : New Meetup: Urbana-Champaign, Illinois.
Discussion article for the meetup : New Meetup: Urbana-Champaign, Illinois.
WHEN: 25 August 2013 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Illini Union South Lounge 1401 W Green St Urbana, IL 61801
Meetup topic will be determined by popular consensus at the actual meetup. The expect... |
b5001570-d024-4860-a0a8-561e332958be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CNN feature visualization in 50 lines of code
[My project for AGI Safety Fundamentals programme (~Oct 2021). Code & pictures below.]
To me, reading about Feature Visualization felt like one of the most revealing insights about CNNs in the last years. Seeing the idea "this node finds eyes, this node finds mouths, the ... |
95abc632-ce8f-4444-a8e1-eab5438e6310 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AGI safety from first principles: Introduction
*This is the first part of a six-part report called* AGI safety from first principles, *in which I've attempted to put together the most complete and compelling case I can for why the development of AGI might pose an existential threat. The report stems from my dissatisfa... |
bfe30ab9-e522-48e6-9ff7-797dbf26a7a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Risers for Foot Percussion
The ideal seat height for foot percussion is significantly higher than a typical chair. I've tried a few things over the years:
* Stacking chairs: works great, until you come to a venue without any stackable chairs.
* Drum stool: good (unless you buy a very cheap wobbly one like I did) b... |
38d198eb-a956-46b9-bf0a-bab0aa7acde4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Four major problems with neuroscience
A discussion of four errors which lead to false positives-- neglecting maturation (that brains change with time, even without intervention, learning effects (people who take a test more than once get better at it), regression to the mean (people who are unusually good or bad at so... |
33410db0-8644-4c79-a4a7-a0e827d02ffe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conservative Agency with Multiple Stakeholders
Here are the slides for a talk I just gave at CHAI's 2021 workshop. Thanks to Andrew Critch for prompting me to flesh out this idea.
The first part of my talk summarized my existing results on avoiding negative side effects by making the agent "act conservatively." The s... |
a17c4c0a-3732-4b7b-8c2f-796e7bee3782 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Towards a New Decision Theory
It commonly acknowledged here that current decision theories have deficiencies that show up in the form of various paradoxes. Since there seems to be little hope that Eliezer will publish his [Timeless Decision Theory](/lw/135/timeless_decision_theory_problems_i_cant_solve/) any time soon... |
00285893-db7d-4c46-b847-5361b20437d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feedback Requested! Draft of a New About/Welcome Page for LessWrong
Context for Draft / Request for Feedback
The LessWrong team is hoping to soon display a new About/Welcome page which does an improved job of conveying what LessWrong.com is about and how community members can productively use the site.
However, Less... |
106eb823-96ce-4632-b927-fcda394bbab5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spectrum of Independence
When I compare our parenting decisions to peers and neighbors' we tend to be near the far end of thinking our kids are ready to do things on their own. I don't see other first graders (6y) unaccompanied at the park or crossing the street, and it was only this year that our third grader's (8y) ... |
9f191403-f80e-411a-9571-6f0d1904ba42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta- the goals of this forum
Summary: We're planning to publicize and open up the forum very soon, and so it's a good time to discuss what we would like this forum to achieve, how we plan for moderation to work, and what discussions are on-topic.
Currently, this forum is read-only for everyone except for a few veter... |
416b695c-5e0c-40de-a234-999996458ea3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are you surprised people don't just buy?
Two of the main resources people have are time and money. The world offers many opportunities to trade one for the other, at widely varying rates.
I've often heard people recommend trading money for time in the abstract, but this advice is rarely accompanied by specific ... |
4532011c-4bcf-4fb4-bf07-0844b0dd2f93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | What's a Good Prediction? Challenges in evaluating an agent's knowledge
1. Predictions as Knowledge:
Understanding the World Through Forecasts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | |
| --- | --- | --- |
|
(a) Often an agent can never observe the true state of the enviro... |
7affc7ff-8b0b-4b49-bd7f-1eb719e264d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One pixel electronic contact lens tested on rabbits [link]
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2011/11/electronic-contact-lens-displa.html
http://iopscience.iop.org/0960-1317/ |
5232adfc-4f68-4a43-8347-18681802bd66 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Washington Post article about EA university groups
[The article is here](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/07/05/ai-apocalypse-college-students/) (note that the *Washington Post* is paywalled[[1]](#fnv0p7m9rzgpd)). The headline[[2]](#fnjsvmhastb1o) is "**How elite schools like Stanford became fixated on t... |
aa9e7189-d130-4197-bffc-7c67c6931317 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT tells stories, and a note about reverse engineering: A Working Paper
Cross-posted from New Savanna.
I've uploaded a new working paper. Title above, links, abstract, content, and opening sections below.
Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/97862447/ChatGPT_tells_stories_and_a_note_about_reverse_engineering_... |
4f43de73-bfd8-4623-ba7d-1d32b2adeebd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evidence of Learned Look-Ahead in a Chess-Playing Neural Network
Paper authors: Erik Jenner, Shreyas Kapur, Vasil Georgiev, Cameron Allen, Scott Emmons, Stuart Russell
TL;DR: We released a paper with IMO clear evidence of learned look-ahead in a chess-playing network (i.e., the network considers future moves to decid... |
c659ea2e-81c7-4509-ab09-9a775d789dd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A counterfactual and hypothetical note on AI safety design
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
A lot of the new ideas I've been posting could be parodied as going something like this:
The AI A, which is utility indifferent to the existence of AI B, has utility u (later corriged to v', twice), and it will... |
0ef5c473-84c7-4272-aead-cbb9d80e9d94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Common Pile and Comma-v.01
https://www.engadget.com/ai/it-turns-out-you-can-train-ai-models-without-copyrighted-material-174016619.html
> ...the LLM's dataset uses only public domain and openly licensed material.
>
> The paper (via The Washington Post) was a collaboration between 14 different institutions. The a... |
e385a23a-2250-43a0-a08c-b8aaf9201d7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayeswatch 9: Zombies
Vi took a taxi to the outside of the Natanz fortress. She left her cornea and other electronics with Miriam on the scout ship. Vi walked up the to soldier standing guard at the front gate. She caught his eye. Then she stepped over the road spikes into the compound.
The soldier shouted something.... |
6d830ae3-09d9-4291-9495-89167557ec3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | World Future 2011 Conference in Vancouver
If there are any people who'd like to come to WFS-11, but can't for financial reasons - I'm opening up my Vancouver home as a place to stay for a limited number of people. I have an unused guest bedroom, an additional makeshift third bedroom, and a floor available to anyone wh... |
13e318cb-bed1-4968-9bfb-9f3d7d5b50d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Efficacy of Vitamin D in helping with COVID
so a new research found that high dose of Vitamin D significantly improve out comes for COVID patient:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub
another source on facebook claim that:
- A study in Indonesia found that out of the patien... |
589f73fd-8b2b-454c-a065-fc5b7cca421d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Energy efficiency of The Spirit of Butt’s Farm
*Updated Nov 18, 2020*
The Spirit of Butt’s Farm:
* covered around 31.67 m/kJ
* and moved mass at around 0.16 – 0.086 kg⋅m/J
Details
-------
The Spirit of Butt’s Farm was a record setting model airplane that crossed the Atlantic on one gallon of fuel.[1](https://a... |
14c17b99-c640-4c3e-b5e0-e24e827352e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Availability Heuristic Considered Ambiguous
(Content note: The experimental results on the availability bias, one of the biases described in Tversky and Kahneman's original work, have been overdetermined, which has led to at least two separate interpretations of the heuristic in the cognitive science literature. These... |
982f62db-56c6-4632-b730-23a8c6815d8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI is at least as far away as Nuclear Fusion.
Consider two future technologies.
For technology A:
1. The underling physical laws governing it are fully understood.
2. A blueprint for the technology is available and the universal consensus of scientists is that this blueprint will work.
3. A worldwide consortium ... |
fb962509-665d-45ef-a72e-e7c2c0cb0501 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2024 Petrov Day Retrospective
(Follow-up to The 2024 Petrov Day Scenario)
Part 0: "Previously, on Petrov Day..."
By Raymond Arnold
One year ago, many people on LessWrong received a DM asking them to choose the most important virtue of Petrov Day, with four listed options that we'd seen people argue for in previous... |
1633623c-31a4-48e1-b64b-8a02bdbd1e5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Base Rates and Reference Classes
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 class on Forecasting.
Let's start by considering the following question:
> What is the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov. 1st, 2024?
[Note: This was written on Nov. 3rd, 2021.]
To answer this question,... |
020bf8d5-8b48-486e-a701-d4565a191bd9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What's Up With Confusingly Pervasive Goal Directedness?
*Fictionalized/Paraphrased version of a real dialog between me and John Wentworth.*
**Fictionalized Me:** So, in the Eliezer/Richard dialogs, Eliezer is trying to get across this idea that consequentialism deeply permeates optimization, and this is important,... |
ea641035-5ce6-4886-b539-edcb2f190d7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Safety Committee Resources
A friend recently asked me for some advice about starting a safety committee for their contra dance. This got me pulling together some resources, so I thought I'd share them here as well.
Overall, I think safety committees can be positive, but there are also a lot of ways you can accidental... |
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