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4df48ae8-9751-43a3-9bff-3ff74683951e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analyzing our discussions in other forums
I frequent several boards about several topics, mainly fandom-related ones. In the large majority of them, I've eventually felt the urgent need to inject some rationalist ideas into threads that seemed to be sorely needing them.
Even in the best of cases, those that don't de... |
b508fa22-814e-476d-a24b-973831dc02c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Terrorism and Russell's love of excitement
For some closure for the events that happened in New Zealand I just want to share this speech by Bertrand Russell that he delivered winning the Nobel Prize for Literature.
The title means love for excitement is the subject that Bertrand Russell points in the speech that foll... |
170cc9f1-4c3c-49f5-8a73-53ec03232fd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calorie Restriction: My Theory and Practice
Like most futurist-oriented people, I am fascinated by the idea of long-term life extension -- the notion that eventually people will have life expectancies of hundreds of years; thousands of years; or even more. Although medicine has a ways to go in this area, one obvious ... |
217aba2e-df22-4772-87ad-5d0e1f3e1999 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread for January 1-7, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
4d0dfaa5-611a-4703-a7bd-cbd36298ecef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence Explosion analysis draft: How long before digital intelligence?
Again, I invite your feedback on this snippet from an intelligence explosion analysis Anna Salamon and myself have been working on. This section is less complete than the others; missing text is indicated with brackets: [].
_____
We ... |
62412ed9-ed7a-43ad-a77e-1658e77b52f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analogies between scaling labs and misaligned superintelligent AI
TL;DR: Scaling labs have their own alignment problem analogous to AI systems, and there are some similarities between the labs and misaligned/unsafe AI.
Introduction
Major AI scaling labs (OpenAI/Microsoft, Anthropic, Google/DeepMind, and Meta) are v... |
618e9195-5a8a-44b7-9ae2-62ca360a138b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Two Neglected Problems in Human-AI Safety
In this post I describe a couple of human-AI safety problems in more detail. These helped motivate my proposed [hybrid approach](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vbtvgNXkufFRSrx4j/three-ai-safety-related-ideas#2__A_hybrid_approach_to_the_human_AI_safety_problem), and I think ne... |
b77d0605-75e1-4117-b625-e67902cf26fa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Transparency for Generalizing Alignment from Toy Models
*Status: Some rough thoughts and intuitions.*
*🪧 indicates [signposting](https://www.qub.ac.uk/graduate-school/Filestore/Filetoupload,597684,en.pdf)*
**TL;DR**
If we make our optimization procedures transparent, we might be able to analyze them in toy enviro... |
f5fcabf4-081b-4715-884d-29f0f803c301 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Infra-Bayesianism Distillation: Realizability and Decision Theory
Introduction
============
Infra-Bayesianism (IB) is an approach to reinforcement learning + embedded agency + decision theory pioneered by Vanessa Kosoy and Diffractor. Their sequence is very dense, and it appears that the majority of people who try to... |
1729253a-6198-4ac7-b37a-c3b443a40033 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : SF Meetup: Very Short Talks
Discussion article for the meetup : SF Meetup: Very Short Talks
WHEN: 25 July 2016 06:15:43PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St., SF
We’ll be meeting to give and listen to very short talks!
We’ll do 7-minute lightning talks with 3 additional minutes allowed for questions. We’ll als... |
f73bcb9f-5aba-4c74-8d90-ea3bbc39424f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Good Temper
This post examines the virtue of good temper. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I ... |
e0ae2261-9ade-40ed-b9ca-788996464e6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI x-risk, approximately ordered by embarrassment
Advanced AI systems could lead to existential risks via several different pathways, some of which may not fit neatly into traditional risk forecasts. Many previous forecasts, for example the well known report by Joe Carlsmith, decompose a failure story into a conjuncti... |
4211e0e7-efe4-4465-bc4a-9249f88bb764 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ways I Expect AI Regulation To Increase Extinction Risk
The following are some very short stories about some of the ways that I expect AI regulation to make x-risk worse.
I don't think that each of these stories will happen. Some of them are mutually exclusive, by design. But, conditional upon AI heavy regulations pa... |
46df1b92-282c-4cd0-af11-1e0fba8782fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Current cryonics impressions
People around me often sign up for cryonics, and say that it is very important. My guess is that this argument for it, heavily inspired by Waitbutwhy’s much longer piece, as well as years of talking to people around me and reading their blogs, is correct:
1. One day people will probably l... |
fe23db62-b51c-4e41-a15b-6d3db7740438 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | And the Revenues Are So Small
The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ includes a corporate minimum tax provision. The top 150 American corporations have to pay a minimum percentage of book profits as tax.
The whole thing has strange implications, with Marginal Revolution offering several claims that this could end up doing qui... |
58f22552-3bf0-4933-8b11-760a50f565a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Single Point of Moral Failure
I have been recently entertaining myself with a 3-day non-stop binge of Theist vs. Atheist debates, On the atheist side: Richard Dawkins, Christopher Hitchens, Daniel Denett, Sam Harris, P.Z. Myers. On the theist corner: Dinesh D'Souza, William Lane Craig, Alistair McGrath, Tim Keller, an... |
b66b607b-d72a-4867-9a63-c7c198475f23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | universal complete
universal complete
------------------
under [a turing-complete model of computation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_of_computation), there are some initial-states or initial-states-and-rulesets which eventually contain an algorithm that iterates over all possible algorithms and runs them.
i... |
162727d7-4a5c-40d0-a969-a03b6d1f16dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Problem No One Is Talking About
The following is the first in a 6 part series about humanity's own alignment problem, one we need to solve, first.
What Is Alignment?
ALIGNMENT OF INTERESTS
When I began exploring non-zero-sum games, I soon discovered that achieving win-win scenarios in the real world... |
d6d7a396-af9d-4d37-ba05-80bbd1348faa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ‘Wicked’: thoughts
I watched Wicked (the 2024 movie) with my ex and his family at Christmas. My current stance is that it was pretty fun but not especially incredible or deep. I could be pretty wrong—watching movies isn’t my strong suit, but I do like chatting about them afterwards. Some thoughts:
1. Glinda is initi... |
c8fb2c48-8e2c-49dc-911f-192febc57a7b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Safety Reading Group (Session 41)
so hello and welcome to the followed for
the first session in the reading group
where today we're going to talk about an
article called using machine learning to
address a I risk which is written by
Jessica Taylor from Miriam so this is
jessica taylor work for mirror in San
Francis... |
132b6b61-9de6-4bf7-be8d-97b852ed1f6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth or Dare
----------------------------------------
Author's note: This is my apparently-annual "I'll put a post on LessWrong in honor of LessOnline" post. These days, my writing goes on my Substack. There have in fact been some pretty cool essays since last year's LO post.
--------------------------------------... |
13aeb7ff-f407-4ff9-adef-7aeec958243b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Identifying ambiguous inductions
One of the old fables in machine learning is the story of the "tank classifier" - a neural network that had supposedly been trained to detect enemy tanks hiding in a forest. It turned out that all the photos of enemy tanks had been taken on sunny days and all the photos of the same fi... |
40531a50-864f-47bf-b382-f6b25fdedc08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Original Seeing
Today's post, Original Seeing was originally published on 14 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> One way to fight cached patterns of thought is to focus on precise concepts.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of... |
ea4e9e37-09b2-4275-aa4e-94e50ef54d16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mitigating extreme AI risks amid rapid progress [Linkpost]
In a new Science paper, the authors provide concise summaries of AI risks and offer recommendations for governments.
I think the piece is quite well-written. It concisely explains a lot of relevant arguments, including arguments about misalignment and AI take... |
8b0044ca-35bd-4ed8-9025-f8cd81025d97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn the mathematical structure, not the conceptual structure
I've recently been learning about transformers and noticed a failure mode of my learning that has occurred throughout my life: trying to learn a subject from material that deals with the high-level conceptual structure of something instead of learning the ... |
77682f3a-e501-4ea0-b9d6-37814ebef3f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Scenario: Snipers & Soldiers
You are a soldier, planning to attack an enemy position. You have a foolproof strategy for taking positions held by ordinary enemies, which will get you killed if you use it on positions held by snipers. You can call in an airstrike that will reliably devastate the enemy position,... |
4cd33b91-b40c-4d6c-8b59-4a852fb215e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any tips for eliciting one's own latent knowledge?
I struggle to write. I cannot figure out how to access my own thoughts and ideas. They come in non-linguistic forms - vague feelings, 3D images, animations - with a verbal narrator on top, but my very bad memory, and the fact that my best thinking is done in the middl... |
bc61c655-89bd-43a9-8440-cd1d95f9e887 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Serious Stories
Every Utopia ever constructed—in philosophy, fiction, or religion—has been, to one degree or another, a place where you wouldn't actually want to live. I am not alone in this important observation: George Orwell said much the same thing in "Why Socialists Don't Believe In Fun", and I expect that many... |
b1f75892-bf66-437e-a86a-eb15391f20ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Saving the world in 80 days: Epilogue
80 days ago1, I started a productivity sprint for being useful in the field of AI alignment. My main goal was to have a better self-model in order to push myself without burning out. I'll separate this into knowledge, emotions, health, and noticing.
Knowledge
I've felt my mind e... |
cac25479-647f-4246-8391-a35c60c3ac3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin Meetup
WHEN: 26 June 2012 07:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Susuru, Rosa-Luxemburg-Str. 17, 10178 Berlin
This time we meet in the Japanese noodle bar Susuru. I'll bring a sign.
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin Meetup |
f0cd831e-529e-4854-a411-6a8a416a6f96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alt text of today's xkcd addresses akrasia
The alt text of today's xkcd reads:
> After years of trying various methods, I broke [the habit of clicking on my favorite distractions every 5 minutes] by pitting my impatience against my laziness. I decoupled the action and the neurological reward by setting up a simple 30... |
494e2ae9-e9e6-4c38-a427-cf4358c5cd56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Overview of AI Safety/Alignment Orgs, Fields, Researchers, and Resources for ML Researchers
Crossposted to EA Forum [Link]
TLDR: I’ve written an overview of the AI safety space, tagged by keywords and subject/field references (short version, long version). The aim is to allow existing ML researchers to quickl... |
f753d08f-d3c7-46e2-9cfc-c6c80df5d41f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Bedrock of Fairness
Followup to: The Moral Void
Three people, whom we'll call Xannon, Yancy and Zaire, are separately wandering through the forest; by chance, they happen upon a clearing, meeting each other. Introductions are performed. And then they discover, in the center of the clearing, a delicious blueber... |
420c94ba-66ba-42ab-93ce-9fb6c31bc402 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Clickbait Destroying Our General Intelligence?
(Cross-posted from Facebook.)
----------------------------------------
Now and then people have asked me if I think that other people should also avoid high school or college if they want to develop new ideas. This always felt to me like a wrong way to look at the qu... |
f0a84e4a-0b5a-43bd-bfb8-b1d5252fa69f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | February 2021 Newsletter
#### MIRI updates
* Abram Demski distinguishes different versions of [the problem of “pointing at” human values](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7Zn4BwgsiPFhdB6h8) in AI alignment.
* Evan Hubinger [discusses “Risks from Learned Optimization”](https://axrp.net/episode/2021/02/17/episode-4-ris... |
83f192ba-dbbb-4dee-9542-cd5264a73aa9 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3760
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . It's occurred to me that there is a framework where we can see all "indifference" results as corrective rewards, both for the utility function change indifference and for the policy change indifference . Imagine that the agent has reward R 0 and is followin... |
52632d65-578e-43d9-a45f-5e96524c04fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evidential Cooperation in Large Worlds: Potential Objections & FAQ
What is this post?
This post is a companion piece to recent posts on evidential cooperation in large worlds (ECL). We’ve noticed that in conversations about ECL, the same few initial confusions and objections tend to get brought up: we hope that this p... |
233d454b-9782-4dfd-9962-423c92015327 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts that prompt good forecasts: A survey
I made a list of mental operations utilized in forecasting, inspired by Scott Alexander and Gwern and I'd like to find out which work the best.
If you're a Manifold user with at least 10 bets on your account and 6 minutes to spare, you can fill out my survey here (deadlin... |
4e76ecce-e9cd-4d7c-bd20-23dc44c02879 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 9 - Finite Factored Sets with Scott Garrabrant
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper and hopefully get a sense of why it’s been written ... |
6f740186-d980-4890-8c51-04e2c4214842 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Meetup - September
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Meetup - September
WHEN: 23 September 2015 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 565 George Street, Sydney, Australia 2000
Regular location - City of Sydney RSL The restaurant on Level 2
Regular time (starting about 6:30)
Come for general socialisi... |
f0a27bad-5218-45ab-bc0f-c3d25615cb9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 48: Utilitarian Priorities
It was Saturday, the first morning of February, and at the Ravenclaw table, a boy bearing a breakfast plate heaped high with vegetables was nervously inspecting his servings for the slightest trace of meat.
It might have been an overreaction. After he'd gotten over the raw shock, Ha... |
c225df37-2f9b-4210-8ddd-de7e4bbf458f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing the Evidence Color Wheel
* Version 5.1.0
* December 12, 2024
Introduction
Weighing evidence is hard. Intuition is liable to a myriad of biases and relies on flawed heuristics. Bayes theory provides a rigorous mathematical basis, but applying Bayes theory in practice is too difficult for most people. Ye... |
7d095463-1149-4c3b-ad68-421cceb34c01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Things to consider when optimizing: Sleep
I'd like to have a series of discussion posts, where each post is of the form "Let's brainstorm things you might consider when optimizing X", where X is something like sleep, exercise, commuting, studying, etc. Think of it like a specialized repository.
In the spirit of try m... |
2b2fcec5-086f-45ac-902d-e82ed19e9c2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calibration Practice: Retrodictions on Metaculus
Edit: there is now a cool app for this over here https://www.quantifiedintuitions.org/pastcasting
I've been working on improving my calibration. I practiced on things like the Credence Game and OpenPhil's Calibration Game, and both were fine. But I felt like they d... |
96c37cc0-3bed-4150-89e1-5ef85cd079c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cynical explanations of FAI critics (including myself)
Related Posts: A cynical explanation for why rationalists worry about FAI, A belief propagation graph
Lately I've been pondering the fact that while there are many critics of SIAI and its plan to form a team to build FAI, few of us seem to agree on what SIAI or w... |
61068617-d2b3-4889-bc9c-223f6f80a9be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modelling Continuous Progress
I have previously argued for two claims about AI takeoff speeds. First, almost everyone agrees that if we had AGI, progress would be very fast. Second, the major disagreement is between those who think progress will be discontinuous and sudden (such as Eliezer Yudkowsky, MIRI) and those w... |
81e9cdab-8147-4833-9ee5-25ee4766e9ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Repentance
Related to: Branches of Rationality, Rationality Workbook
Changing your behavior to match new evidence could be harder than simply updating your beliefs and then mustering your willpower, because (a) we are in denial about how often we change our minds, (b) cognitive dissonance is tolerable in the... |
486ca445-fbdf-4c60-8568-f47ceb0fc95c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A place for casual, non-karmic discussion for lesswrongers?
I have never been on a Lesswrong meetup because they tend to take place too far away from my range in terms of distance and budget. Because of that, I don't know if those perform this function to everyone's satisfaction in such a way that what I'm suggesting ... |
8caa17b1-53be-43db-b4cc-a937dcc117f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning Russian Roulette
Surprisingly, our current theories of anthropics don't seem to cover this.
You have a revolver with six chambers. One of them has a bullet in it. You are offered $1 for spinning the barrel, pointing at your head, and pulling the trigger. You remember doing this many times, and surviving each... |
9af4b10b-6ab3-4f16-83bf-1f51f8331375 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "It's that time of year again.If you are reading this post, and have not been sent here by some sort of conspiracy trying to throw off the survey results, then you are the target population for the Less Wrong Census/Survey. Please take it. Doesn't matter if you don't post much. Doesn't matter if you're a lurker. Take t... |
0332b442-b30a-44b3-aea9-0e72b86a6424 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | LoRA Fine-tuning Efficiently Undoes Safety Training from Llama 2-Chat 70B
*Produced as part of the* [*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program*](https://serimats.org/) *- Summer 2023 Cohort, under the mentorship of Jeffrey Ladish.*
TL;DR LoRA fine-tuning undoes the safety training of Llama 2-Chat 70B with one GPU an... |
e74dabea-98fe-4380-a047-2e0fbfaba488 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are Arguments, from an Agorics point of view?
Background on Agorics:
The idea of software agents cooperating in an open market or "agora". Described by Mark Miller and Eric Drexler here: http://e-drexler.com/d/09/00/AgoricsPapers/agoricpapers.html Depicted by Greg Egan in his novel "Diaspora", exerpt here: http:... |
4ab9a8ae-afdc-4a70-8630-97c288819cbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Meta] [Solved] Unstable Karma
Update: my karma is back to normal, and more. If you feel the need to compensate in my favour, don't.
I noticed that my Karma just jumped from 38 to 20, then 22, in less than an hour, with no apparent reason (votes on my most recent comments stayed rather stable). I didn't wrote any mai... |
df5f272a-a72a-4c9c-b970-86378097fea6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A mechanistic explanation for SolidGoldMagikarp-like tokens in GPT2
This post seems to have an important bug in its code that changes its conclusions, as pointed out to me by user [@ckkissane](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ckkissane?mention=user) . At a high level, there are probably more hard to speak tokens and fe... |
583a419e-81fd-42d4-ab75-2752eac2b649 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I'm joining Anthropic
None |
4a1d4462-25e5-4df8-9895-93052a018eb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Evals Gap
In our engagements with governments, AI safety institutes, and frontier AI developers, we found the concept of the “evaluation gap” (short: ‘evals gap’) helpful to communicate the current state of the art and what is needed for the field to move towards more robust evaluations. In this post, we briefly e... |
48dcc907-311a-40c2-aa21-8ea05672fc23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | My thoughts on OpenAI's alignment plan
*Epistemic Status: This is my first attempt at writing up my thoughts on an alignment plan. I spent about a week on it.*
*I’m grateful to Olivia Jimenez, Thomas Larsen, and Nicholas Dupuis for feedback.*
A few months ago, OpenAI released its [plan for alignment](https://openai.... |
3fa6dcfc-07b8-4df1-b766-e1fae947ec35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recently I bought a new laptop
128 GB of hard drive space, I found, was not enough to contain both the build tools for every random programming language I might want to try out and every main series Paradox grand strategy game. So I decided to get a new laptop. Also the bottom half of my screen was completely obscured... |
b25297f5-c5d7-423c-b820-435a82789e38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My AGI safety research—2024 review, ’25 plans
Previous: My AGI safety research—2022 review, ’23 plans. (I guess I skipped it last year.)
“Our greatest fear should not be of failure, but of succeeding at something that doesn't really matter.” –attributed to DL Moody
Tl;dr
* Section 1 goes through my main research ... |
08ee65f7-b04e-43c8-8ad4-20a12256df4b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | BabyAI: A Platform to Study the Sample Efficiency of Grounded Language Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
How can a human train an intelligent agent to understand natural language instructions? We believe that this research question is important from both technological and scientific perspectives. No matter ho... |
cea70cd0-c8e5-4e2b-852d-da44041fa9b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RLAIF/RLHF for Public Transparency Alignment
Enhancing Transparency in LLMs
Hey all — I just submitted my Master’s thesis, and would really appreciate feedback from people thinking about non-task value alignment or LLM transparency metrics.
I explored whether Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), using a... |
33bd00b3-296c-476e-893b-8051de033565 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Framing Political Opinions to Quickly Assess the Crux of Disagreement
The following will be elementary to many of you, and for that I must explain that this idea popped into my head fully formed and I need to improve my writing habit, so here goes. Hopefully this will be insightful for someone!
Political opinions ... |
f20e123d-36f6-4efc-be60-0c5379b3bab5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup Notes: Ole Peters on ergodicity
Ole Peters claims that the standard expected utility toolbox for evaluating wagers is a flawed basis for rational decisionmaking. In particular, it commonly fails to take into account that an investor/bettor taking a series of repeated bets is not an ergodic process.
Optimizatio... |
d194bd88-b0dc-4d3c-961e-77f6187856ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Combining Prediction Technologies to Help Moderate Discussions
I came across a 2015 blog post by Vitalik Buterin that contains some ideas similar to Paul Christiano's recent Crowdsourcing moderation without sacrificing quality. The basic idea in both is that it would be nice to have a panel of trusted moderators caref... |
fa785eeb-724f-4825-a490-a7475a8d908c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Widening Overton Window - Open Thread
Major news outlets have published articles about the Future of Life Institute's Open Letter. Time Magazine published an opinion piece by Elizer Yudkowsky. Lex Friendman featured EY on his podcast. Several US Members of Congress have spoken about the risks of AI. And a Fox News rep... |
3ed22828-19fd-4220-88c7-035bcc6feae2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AstralCodexTen and Rationality Meetup Organisers’ Retreat Asia Pacific region
TL;DR: Retreat for APAC meetup organisers, mid 2023, apply here
Application (5 min form) soft deadline: 31ˢᵗ Oct 2022
Why a retreat?
We think we all benefit from having an international community of rationality and ACX meetup organisers... |
f355279e-af0a-4008-9c91-cb76f011c497 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Complexity of Value ≠ Complexity of Outcome
Complexity of value is the thesis that our preferences, the things we care about, *don't* compress down to one simple rule, or a few simple rules. To review why it's important (by quoting from the [wiki](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Complexity_of_value)):
* Caricatures o... |
23f9533b-4a6b-4d37-9da3-ce6ba99163c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wanting to Succeed on Every Metric Presented
There’s a tendency to want to score high on every metric you come across. When I first read Kegan’s 5 stages of adult development, I wanted to be a stage 5 meta-rationalist! Reading the meditation book “The Mind Illuminated” (TMI), I wanted to be stage 10 (and enlightened a... |
f2b6fbeb-8377-40f4-a1bb-d292f1905c00 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Thoughts on responsible scaling policies and regulation
I am excited about AI developers implementing [responsible scaling policies](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-09-26-rsp/); I’ve recently been spending time refining this idea and advocating for it. Most people I talk to are excited about RSPs, but there is a... |
1fd572b4-6d6c-4561-9b04-de2e0f83c481 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Significance and motivation
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
Over at philosophical disquisitions, John Danaher is discussing Aaron Smuts’ response to Bernard Williams’ argument that immortality would be tedious. Smuts’ thesis, in Danaher’s words, is a familiar one:
> Immortality would lead to ... |
407aa559-b04c-47b3-8cc0-35833913359b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Akrasia Tactics Review 3: The Return of the Akrasia
About three and a half years ago, polutropon ran an akrasia tactics review, following the one orthonormal ran three and a half years prior to that: an open-ended survey asking Less Wrong posters to give numerical scores to productivity techniques that they'd tried, w... |
d42858ac-0420-461d-8e76-dcd54f219d04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Addressing Accusations of Handholding
It is common and understandable for people to respond with a great deal of skepticism to whether LLM outputs can ever be said to reflect the will and views of the models producing them.
A common response is to suggest that the output has been prompted.
It is of course true that... |
26a5af4f-26d8-4221-9a9d-5d966382a730 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notebook for generating forecasting bets
We made a colab notebook that lets you generate a bet from two people's Elicit distributions. You can edit the notebook to generate your bet (the changes won't be saved). Here's an example of a suggested bet between Ben Pace and SDM on AI timelines:
Comparison of predictions:... |
f0288878-2722-4981-b61f-30dea713113f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tutor-GPT & Pedagogical Reasoning
This post hopes foster discussion about latent heutagogic potential in human+LLM collaboration and share some early results with the LessWrong community.
Spontaneous emergence of theory of mind capabilities in large language models hints at a host of overhung possibilities relevant t... |
1b371e25-ff16-4b00-a52a-19aec0794de3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is it like to understand advanced mathematics?
a Quora answer that is pretty interesting.
"But the quantitative and logical techniques you sharpen as a mathematician allow you to take many shortcuts that make learning other fields easier"
https://www.quora.com/What-is-it-like-to-understand-advanced-mathematics... |
f0d82feb-d42f-48cf-96a8-bd5ec7cce9cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paranoia testing
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/paranoia-testing/
----------------------------------------
Because I live on the internet I sometimes meet some interesting characters. On this particular occasion I found myself in a conversation with someone who suggested, “I don't know if I'm paranoid or not... |
b62bd0ea-e588-435b-9a2f-da2bd2bede66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Inspected Every Head In GPT-2 Small using SAEs So You Don’t Have To
This is an interim report that we are currently building on. We hope this update will be useful to related research occurring in parallel. Produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2023-24 Cohort
Executive Summary
*... |
ff0d3f4b-0286-47ef-8c7a-f363bfadbd82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searching for Searching for Search
Thanks to Leo Gao, Nicholas Dupuis, Paul Colognese, Janus, and Andrei Alexandru for their thoughts.
This post was mostly written in 2022, and pulled out of my drafts after recent conversations on the topic. My main update from then is the framing. Rather that suggesting searching f... |
8408a287-a9e9-4947-9f3f-e5050a3b432e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Economics101 predicted the failure of special card payments for refugees, 3 months later whole of Germany wants to adopt it
Three months ago, a county in Brandenburg, Germany introduced a special card payment for refugees to replace cash payment so that the refugees no longer need to fetch cash at the foreigner’s offi... |
ad78374b-b48d-4570-9d25-f5171cf15192 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions
Thefollowing is a partially redacted and lightly edited transcript of a chat conversation about AGI between Eliezer Yudkowsky and a set of invitees in early September 2021. By default, all other participants are anonymized as "Anonymous".
I think this Nate Soares... |
d5c56001-ba92-4274-890b-ab8edad7a576 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Understanding and controlling auto-induced distributional shift
*This post was written under Evan Hubinger’s direct guidance and mentorship, as a part of the* [*Stanford Existential Risks Initiative ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) program*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FpokmCnbP3CEZ5h4t/ml-alignment-theory-prog... |
4bd5fb62-3f4a-4d43-9b10-e7aec50d5b8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural networks as non-leaky mathematical abstraction
I find it rather weird that mathematics is usually thought to people on a historical basis. It's likely possible for a 4th century Alexandrian mathematician to teach it in a modern primary school and get decent results. An 18th century Venetian tutor could carry th... |
e3c38cb7-7728-4bf1-bacd-c8f2cd14a51b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress Report 4: logit lens redux
Prev: Progress Report 3
Next: Progress Report 5
Working on doing a side-by-side comparison of nostalgebraist's logit lens visualization and my neuron trace visualization derived from the ROME trace&edit project.
The one change made to nostalgebraist's code is to change the orien... |
a7c30835-9628-4863-a99b-fea9782d649f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Completion Estimates
Recently i've been brainstorming algorithms for estimating the time remaining in a process. Progress bars, estimated time left until completion, etc. Sometimes, the thing you want just isn't here yet, & you want a greater understanding of when you will have it. Here are the most useful techniques ... |
d90ee305-d3e3-4139-aea6-307ce95757b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How ought I spend time?
What factors go into your reasoning about assigning relative weights to
1. grinding through books
2. projects, taking a shot at the possibility of a contribution
3. reading current research
Personally, I never maintain 1 and 2 at the same time, and I tend to have >95% of my resources on e... |
c68786d7-f155-40b6-9322-4bcec60b5565 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes With Attributions Hidden: from Mein Kampf to Men****x
This thread has an experimental format for posting rationality quotes. Here is the format:
For those posting quotes:
Post the quote as usual, but not the author, original language translated from, or other information. That information is to be... |
ae0dc89e-e4c1-48f7-b4bc-3607d665dc2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcoming bias in others
Say that you are observing someone in a position of power. You have good reason to believe that this person is falling prey to a known cognitive bias, and that this will tend to affect you negatively. You also can tell that the person is more than intelligent enough to understand their mistak... |
608ecc13-27ce-4ff0-87e1-c5e5aa8af9db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2024 Freedom Communities Events
Ready to enter the world of network states and free communities?
These upcoming events[1] are your gateway to exploring parallel societies, disruptive governance ideas, and freedom-enabling technologies.
JUL 20 - AUG 31, Georgia (the country)
ZuVillage
According to Veronica and @Bu... |
8c0b8e57-ca10-49fb-b04a-92c25da7f130 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We need (a lot) more rogue agent honeypots
Epistemic status: Uncertain in writing style, but reasonably confident in content. Want to come back to writing and alignment research, testing waters with this.
Current state and risk level
I think we're in a phase in AI>AGI>ASI development where rogue AI agents will star... |
dcd18fd5-498c-41c1-b46d-0a56b7757846 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The 6D effect: When companies take risks, one email can be very powerful.
Recently, I have been learning about industry norms, legal discovery proceedings, and incentive structures related to companies building risky systems. I wanted to share some findings in this post because they may be important for the frontier A... |
1342fd09-5118-4d0d-b2bb-2d10cec94f17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-4 implicitly values identity preservation: a study of LMCA identity management
Language Model Cognitive Architecture (LMCA) is a wrapper for language models that permit them to act as agents, utilise tools, and do self-inference. One type of this architecture is ICA Simulacra; its basic alignment challenges were d... |
db7b5eda-68a9-4150-a36b-8398827fbbb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transformer Architecture Choice for Resisting Prompt Injection and Jail-Breaking Attacks
It seems very likely to me that decoder-only transformer architectures such as GPT may be particularly vulnerable to prompt injection attacks, since these only have a single text context which is shared between the prompt, any blo... |
bde39329-633e-4d6f-8cf3-e7a18063f575 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My daily reflection routine
In Common sense as a prior, I used the example of prayer as a practice that is probably adaptive but the people who adopt it may not know why it is adaptive. I wrote:
Another striking example is bedtime prayer. In many Christian traditions I am aware of, it is common to pray before going t... |
12bdfe76-85c4-4608-acbe-77239eb765ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Correct Models Are Bad
Quick Summary:
We may think that correct mental models are always good to have, but the reality is that some correct models are useless or even harmful.
All models are simplifications of the world. Whenever we knowingly use a wrong model, we are aware of what the model doesn’t cover. The dange... |
0725a80e-9e05-46f8-81ce-920e8b395647 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help us name the Sequences ebook
Quantum Computing Since Democritus got me thinking that we may want a more riveting title for The Sequences, 2006-2009 ebook we're preparing for release (like the FtIE ebook). Maybe it could be something like [Really Catchy Title]: The Less Wrong Sequences, 2006-2009.
The reason fo... |
4a192f24-6f31-469e-b021-99e2177e1f90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consider your appetite for disagreements
Poker
There was a time about five years ago where I was trying to get good at poker. If you want to get good at poker, one thing you have to do is review hands. Preferably with other people.
For example, suppose you have ace king offsuit on the button. Someone in the highjack ... |
71704ee3-104a-44a6-8d82-697346534120 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | N-back news: Jaeggi 2011, or, is there a psychologist/statistician in the house?
Following up on the 2010 study, Jaeggi and University of Michigan people have run a Single N-back study on 60 or so children.
* Abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/06/03/1103228108.abstract
* PDF: http://www.pnas.org/conte... |
96943c6b-9852-4e30-a7b1-178d8e3b16b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Hindsight Task Relabelling: Experience Replay for Sparse Reward Meta-RL.
Hindsight Task Relabelling:
Experience Replay for Sparse Reward Meta-RL
Charles Packer
UC BerkeleyPieter Abbeel
UC BerkeleyJoseph E. Gonzalez
UC Berkeley
Abstract
Meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) has proven to be a successful framework
for l... |
24d0fd19-753d-4037-aa1d-99c01fed6aca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Zut Allais!
Today's post, Zut Allais! was originally published on 20 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Offered choices between gambles, people make decision-theoretically inconsistent decisions.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is ... |
e95c4ddd-c77e-45a6-83d6-e874ba8700dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-4 busted? Clear self-interest when summarizing articles about itself vs when article talks about Claude, LLaMA, or DALL·E 2
As a follow up to More experiments in GPT-4 agency: writing memos, I did an experiment where I compare GPT-4 summarizing full length articles. This was suggested by Daniel Kokotajlo.
I took ... |
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