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e3391ad0-6e11-4cb2-ae55-be736540ec31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI's Hidden Game: Understanding Strategic Deception in AI and Why It Matters for Our Future
Note: This post summarizes my capstone project for the AI Safety, Ethics and Society course by the Centre of AI Safety. You can learn more about their amazing courses here and consider applying!
Note: This post is for professi... |
661ff120-5bd6-41f1-a648-15ee979d8754 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: Melting Arctic is releasing millions of tons of methane
Only the first half of this page is devoted to stating facts; the latter half is a call for political action. The facts section states that the millions of tons of methane trapped in the Arctic ice are a factor not commonly taken into account in future clim... |
d01c889e-99aa-41f6-9970-9bd1fc60cd6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cambridge Boston Alignment Initiative Summer Research Fellowship in AI Safety (Deadline: May 18)
[Sharing here for anyone who may be interested]
"Cambridge Boston Alignment Initiative is excited to announce its full-time, paid, in-person Summer Research Fellowship in AI Safety. We’re selecting up to 15 fellows for a... |
014347e8-918c-4e6d-ad62-f69451535b4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci 5E: Return of the League of Defenders Evaluation & Ruleset
This is a follow-up to last week's D&D.Sci scenario: if you intend to play that, and haven't done so yet, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
There is a web interactive here you can use to test your answer, and generation code available her... |
c0b4d16b-7781-49a0-a1d0-3045bbddce0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The different types (not sizes!) of infinity
In a recent conversation, a smart and mathy friend of mine revealed they didn't understand Cantor's diagonal argument. Further questionning revealed that she was using the wrong concept of infinity. I thought I'd pass on my explanations from there.
What is infinity? Does o... |
ed54e12a-5e5d-4ed2-83e9-89cbe16632e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do Contemplative Practitioners Make so Many Metaphysical Claims?
To paraphrase Culadasa: awakening is a set of special insights that lead to drastically reduced suffering. This seems straightforward enough, and might lead one to question, if this is the case, why the vast landscape of teachers and practitioners ma... |
5069ead8-67c6-4077-8b07-218f1bc99eaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Part O: Lawful Truth
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading group. This fortnigh... |
2277f38d-a45f-46b6-aa06-0150ed332708 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mnestics
Take your mnestic
----------------------------------------
Part IV
In the web series "There is No Antimemetics Division" our heroes must fight a great evil, monsters that make you forget they exist. In the course of such adventures, they find it necessary to imbibe "mnestics" (the opposite of an amnesiac),... |
e949d9d7-4349-4489-92c2-15346084d261 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] U.S. Views of Technology and the Future
I just found this on slashdot:
"U.S. Views of Technology and the Future - Science in the next 50 years" by the Pew Research Center
> This report emerges from the Pew Research Center’s efforts to understand public attitudes about a variety of scientific and technological... |
a4858fcd-f4c9-4c02-96a7-f5eb4ce18399 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | My take on Michael Littman on "The HCI of HAI"
*This is independent research. To make it possible for me to continue writing posts like this, please consider* [*supporting me*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html)*.*
*Many thanks to Professor Littman for reviewing a draft of this post.*
---
Yesterday, at a se... |
e4665750-481d-4024-b4ca-b3ebe2bad489 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents don't have to be aligned to help us achieve an indefinite pause.
One restatement of "Alignment is very hard" is "Agent X, with IQ 200, expects to achieve zero utility conditional on any Agent Y with IQ 400 being created."
Thus, during an unaligned recursive intelligence takeoff, there should be a period of tim... |
21391181-2912-4445-afa5-41bf561afaee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could Roko's basilisk acausally bargain with a paperclip maximizer?
The idea of Roko's basilisk is that it's a friendly AI that acausally blackmails humans into working on alignment.
This was judged to not be effective because humans were too dumb to acausally bargain and there are acausal defenses to blackmail.
How... |
88d0f536-a53a-4e58-bce2-f1bcfd6e22b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is a “treacherous turn”?
[A treacherous turn](https://www.alignmentforum.org/tag/treacherous-turn) is an event where an advanced AI system which has been forced by its relative weakness to pretend to be aligned turns on humanity once it becomes [powerful enough](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/decisive... |
41408326-7d2a-48c0-a40e-57d8be711817 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effectiveness of Fever-Screening Will Decline
COVID-19 Is Under Strong Selective Pressure
Fever screening is the practice of checking the temperature of everyone passing through a checkpoint, such as at an airport or public gathering, for fever. This can be done individually with regular thermometers, or on entire cro... |
c4c20ce5-cb7c-4691-ad0d-c0f29fe96821 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | the world is detailed
Reality has an incredible amount of detail. You can't fit it all in your head. Think of all the things you could learn. All the professions you could spend a lifetime in. Let’s imagine that you’re a biologist. You could spend your whole life studying the sight of the honey-bee. Or perhaps the 18,... |
e2284de9-6f78-4fe6-967d-8cc1249d4f71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-censorship is probably bad for epistemology. Maybe we should figure out a way to avoid it?
Imagine a place where speaking certain thoughts out loud is widely considered to be harmful. Not because they are lies, spam, threats, or insults, most people in most places can agree those are harmful. No, the thing that m... |
9c3e6953-e697-42f9-a6a2-ce4f2b407364 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Benevolent Billionaire (a plagiarized problem)
Hello, this is my first post, as far as I can remember (I may have been asleep). My news feed shows after a few years, new entries about the Sleeping Beauty problem, and this reminded me of this variation I wrote a few years ago.
One-paragraph summary: this is a stor... |
f6486b3d-de39-4417-b72d-8ca74d825a90 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I asked my senator to slow AI
All my favorite twitter accounts agree that AI capabilities are advancing too fast.
One way to slow down AI progress is to ask politicians for help. Polit... |
466d0192-8322-445d-a4bb-346cdfc28047 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CRISPR opens up new genetic engineering potential
I've been hearing around the news about a new genetic engineering method called CRISPR. The method can purportedly edit any gene in a human genome (or other animal or bacterium genome) with very high accuracy. The new method may remove the risks associated with gene th... |
9ac13bd1-dc9a-4fd7-b446-2b70bcbcf11a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Measuring the intelligence of an idealized mechanical knowing agent
1 Introduction
---------------
In formal epistemology, when we study the knowledge of knowing
agents, we usually *idealize* their knowledge. We assume,
for example, that if an agent knows A and knows A→B,
then that agent knows B. We might assume th... |
0d1145ad-dd74-4e8a-89e6-5041e0e4eb0a | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Cross-posted to personal blog. Summarized in Alignment Newsletter #76. Thanks to Jan Leike and Tom Everitt for their helpful feedback on this post.)There are a few different classifications of safety problems, including the Specification, Robustness and Assurance (SRA) taxonomy and the Goodhart's Law taxonomy. In SRA... |
bb01d307-93c2-486b-99b1-b73cc129e159 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why are counterfactuals elusive?
Produced as part of SERI MATS 3.0. Thanks to Vivek Hebbar and Paul Colognese for discussion.
TL;DR (spoiler):
Behind the problem of human counterfactuals creeps the problem of understanding abstraction / ontology identification.
----------------------------------------
A nice theo... |
5729aca5-4f3b-45ab-ae34-c89f8004be92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improvement Without Superstition
When you make continuous, incremental improvements to something, one of two things can happen. You can improve it a lot, or you can fall into superstition. I'm not talking about black cats or broken mirrors, but rather humans becoming addicted to whichever steps were last seen to work,... |
29b6fde7-6ce8-4e2d-b76c-21a10151d2df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Review of Current and Near-Future Methods of Genetic Engineering
Part 1: The Case for Human Genetic Engineering
Part 2: The Case for Increasing Intelligence
My Purpose in Writing This Post
I've spent the last 6 months or so looking into the possibility of pursuing human genetic engineering as a means of imp... |
f541b8e0-f539-4110-872f-e3bf1357b996 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Boston Meetup - New Location
Discussion article for the meetup : Boston Meetup - New Location
WHEN: 19 October 2014 03:30:37PM (-0400)
WHERE: Harvard Science Center Room 109, 1 Oxford Street, Cambridge MA 02138
IMPORTANT LOCATION CHANGE!
Rather than meeting at MIT or at the Citadel, we'll be meeting at Ha... |
15214da6-f779-4f24-baf7-2d985c31405d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] One-question survey from Robin Hanson
As many of you probably know, Robin Hanson is writing a book, and it will be geared toward a popular audience. He wants a term that encompasses both humans and AI, so he's soliciting your opinions on the matter. Here's the link: http://www.quicksurveys.com/tqsruntime.aspx?s... |
af358d0b-e7dc-416f-9f04-76630f275364 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Things that want to be posts
Epistemic Status: Attempting Epistemology
Structural Status: Necessary but pretty probably terrible
I was at an unconference this past weekend. One of the things that became clear to me was that I need to be writing again, and writing more, and that I was not doing that because I was afr... |
1802f9ad-15df-42d0-89c2-a4f239b1e4b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Actually Practicing and the 5 Second Level
|
8fe54fb4-4d95-439f-88b9-42eda5b3e605 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hermione Granger and Newcomb's Paradox
Omega hovered before Hermione Granger. Between them rested two boxes labelled "A" and "B".
"Do the boxes have any special powers beyond modifying my Muggle bank balance?" Hermione asked.
"No," Omega said.
"Where do you get the money?" she asked.
"What do you mean?" Omega said... |
2e459b92-db6d-4786-a5ba-f9360cbb0386 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Walkthrough of 'Formalizing Convergent Instrumental Goals'
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Introduction
I found Formalizing Convergent Instrumental Goals (Benson-Tilsen and Soares) to be quite readable. I was surprised t... |
c5af1471-10cf-47a2-811a-9711101d9be7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One Million Dollars
On Giving Tuesday, Julia and I donated our millionth dollar to GiveWell's top charities and growing the Effective Altruism movement. It was more dramatic than you might have guessed, since we were trying to donate as close as possible to 8:00:00 to get the FB donation match.
I remember when we w... |
62034dcb-1ed0-47f9-a8aa-ea8556449137 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | But What's Your *New Alignment Insight,* out of a Future-Textbook Paragraph?
This is something I've been thinking about a good amount while considering my model of Eliezer's model of alignment. After tweaking it a bunch, it sure looks like a messy retread of much of what Richard says here; I don't claim to assemble an... |
ec15afd2-ae53-4a8b-b342-e117db11c010 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tentative Thoughts on the Cost Effectiveness of the SENS Foundation
Edit from fucking 2019: this is all obviously wrong, EA is a scam, do all your own analysis of everything if you want to have an impact
It should be emphasized that back-of-the-envelope calculations, such as the one given in this post, ought to be ad... |
09e1386f-2837-4bf6-b5b8-db2f1271c99c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Don't Creators Switch to their Own Platforms?
Almost every content creator rationalists follow owns their platform: podcasters like Sam Harris and the Julia Galef, bloggers like Scott (and myself), all the nerdy webcomics. And yet, outside the rationalsphere every creator seems engaged in an endless fight against ... |
c34b5e8e-07a2-4c11-a1c7-5a1d5c5e3a35 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Existential Risk, AI Safety & Interdisciplinary Research - Anders Sandberg
traditionally academia has been done in
very separate disciplines the deeper for
the philosophy department did not talk
to the economist and of course nobody
would know the mathematicians because we
couldn't understand them but mrs. of
course a... |
3b7b210b-c683-4365-af6e-108bae048a5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the Limits on Computability?
Question
The halting problem and Rice's theorem (non-trivial semantic properties of algorithms are not decidable) seem to be problems of self-reference. Some self-referential properties of programs cannot be computed. And this seems to be true even for more powerful models of comp... |
2cae057a-883e-404a-98fb-5cbb1bbb371e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What qualities does an AGI need to have to realize the risk of false vacuum, without hardcoding physics theories into it?
For this question, let's assume the worst about the universe:
1. That a [false vacuum decay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum_decay) can be created,
2. False vacuum decay will destroy... |
fdc45f26-76c6-438e-ae0c-48def019ff02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weighing reputational and moral consequences of leaving Russia or staying
I've been thinking a lot about whether I should consider emigrating to another country (currently I'm in Russia). I'm not involved in politics or the military action, but I can't help but feel implicated by my government's actions as a citizen h... |
e3300c59-4ccb-4981-841e-b5e98d0a43b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Free TEDYouth Event in NYC for High School Students
Taken from the TEDYouth event description page:
> Held annually in New York City, TEDYouth is a day-long event for high school students that includes live speakers, hands-on activities, demonstrations and an opportunity for the youth attendees and speakers to... |
b1509150-8fb2-49e8-811f-3946f44c30b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PaperclipGPT(-4)
With GPT-4 out, I wanted to see how it would behave as PaperclipGPT. Here is our conversation, with notable parts highlighted. It gets more interesting later on. Some list formats (a, b, c...) didn't survive copy/paste - sorry. I do some leading of the AI - hopefully not enough to make this exercise m... |
c579c862-2477-4c47-ac27-4e20f8465d51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Crosspost] Organizing a debate with experts and MPs to raise AI xrisk awareness: a possible blueprint
Thanks to @Leon Lang from University of Amsterdam for proposing this post and reviewing the draft. Any views expressed in this post are not necessarily his.
We (Existential Risk Observatory) have organized a public... |
1f494aeb-6b6d-468d-83f5-b1b556725e69 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Reward uncertainty
In my [last post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/4783ufKpx8xvLMPc6/human-ai-interaction), I argued that interaction between the human and the AI system was necessary in order for the AI system to “stay on track” as we encounter new and unforeseen changes to the environment. The most obvious im... |
8ce003ad-94a2-4da2-8553-993652341e32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will vague "AI sentience" concerns do more for AI safety than anything else we might do?
[Cross-posting from something I posted on Facebook.]
Prediction 1 (high confidence): In 2022, many more people will freak out over vague concerns about AI "becoming sentient" than will freak out over the types of issues that AI s... |
7791b307-47ce-457f-986b-d3d7f35553c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Cognitive Science (MIRI course list)
I'm reviewing the books on the MIRI course list. After reading Heuristics and Biases I picked up Cognitive Science, by José Luis Bermúdez. It taught me a number of interesting things, but I strongly disliked it.
Cognitive Science
I recommend against reading this book... |
316509fb-fd82-4b2b-8f76-145e930fb122 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Difference Between Prediction Markets and Debate (Argument) Maps
Hello folks, first post on LessWrong, so I apologize if I am not familiar with the decorum of this community. However, I have observed there seems to be a bit of disagreement or uncertainty about the comparative utility of prediction markets and (or ... |
e413a909-fb36-4598-a9b3-50b95bb26cba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] You Provably Can't Trust Yourself
Today's post, You Provably Can't Trust Yourself was originally published on 19 August 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Lob's theorem provides, by analogy, a nice explanation for why you really can't trust yourself. Don't trust thoughts because you think them... |
d879adb2-9fbc-4898-9e36-6dc354b53ade | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Our mental building blocks are more different than I thought
I recently had a conversation with one of my best friends about her Aphantasia. In short, she can’t create mental images. When she thinks about the world, she thinks in text, relationships, sounds, and much more but never images. Even if she tries, it’s impo... |
ac288b79-1be4-4815-8656-2fca3703e38c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards a Rigorous Model of Virtue-Signalling
The concept of "virtue signalling" has been a bit polarizing. Some people find it seems to explain a lot of the world; others find its lack of precision makes it almost an empty insult against others' behavior.
The model I'm about to propose doesn't capture everything peo... |
d361476d-d3c7-45d2-b06d-ae0961a2e194 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Surviving Automation In The 21st Century - Part 1
This is another career article (series?), I’m, in part, writing this for myself, but I may as well publish it.
I want to think through the kind of jobs and career choices I should take in order to hedge against and benefit from increased automation. Especially the kin... |
1ecd0833-07fc-4fa0-b304-3fd4caeaff48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How far along Metr's law can AI start automating or helping with alignment research?
In METR: Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks found a Moore's law like trend relating (model release date) to (time needed for a human to do a task the model can do).
Here is their rationale for plotting this.
> Current fro... |
9266eb35-8bfa-44c4-9f14-6ffea31948d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Geometric Expectation
A Suspicious Pattern
There is a pattern that shows up in many of the toys we like to play with around here: the pattern of maximizing the expected logarithm.
Nash bargaining is a method for aggregating preferences without a means to directly compare them. When Nash bargaining, you are maximi... |
a7dec1b5-e48a-4561-b495-297f4f0fce5c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What should I ask Ezra Klein about AI policy proposals?
Next week for the 80k Podcast I'm speaking with Ezra Klein (here our [first interview](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ezra-klein-journalism-most-important-topics/)).
The topic is what we should do about AI — in particular governance and policy ideas.
... |
e0f1f962-2513-4630-9d3f-c90a36920322 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The idea that ChatGPT is simply “predicting” the next word is, at best, misleading
*Cross-posted from* [*New Savanna*](https://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-idea-that-chatgpt-is-simply.html)*.*
But it may also be flat-out wrong. We’ll see when we get a better idea of how inference works in the underlying langu... |
a0c898e0-86d9-4c7e-bd52-98646b2bfe91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humans are the universal economic bottleneck
There's this idea in computer science wherein the maximum theoretical speedup that can be acquired with an arbitrary number of processors is related to the percentage of the program which can be parallelized. If we have two segments of code that take the same amount of time... |
cf560a71-c2aa-4e9a-ac26-74dcf8a6d1b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ask LW: PredictionBook.com and logical uncertainty
I like to make predictions about things like quantum mechanics and decision theory and cosmology and fun stuff like that. Can PredictionBook be used for this? If so, what should the guidelines be? Figured I'd make this a Discussion post so as to encourage the habit of... |
b061b4c5-288b-4c52-b2a2-10aacacc69d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Real AGI"
I see "AGI" used for everything from existing LLMs to superintelligence, and massive resulting confusion and illusory disagreements. I finally thought of a term I like for what I mean by AGI. It's an acronym that's also somewhat intuitive without reading the definition:
Reasoning, Reflective Entities with ... |
ed877dbb-d263-40e2-afba-f860a1cca7c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for suggestions: ageing and data-mining
Imagine you had the following at your disposal:
* A Ph.D. in a biological science, with a fair amount of reading and wet-lab work under your belt on the topic of aging and longevity (but in hindsight, nothing that turned out to leverage any real mechanistic insights in... |
5d2ee86c-0230-49ce-82ff-235f316f8060 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Every Implementation of You is You: An Intuition Ladder
I was recently arguing in /r/transhumanism on reddit about the viability of uploading/forking consciousness, and I realized I didn't have any method of assessing where someone's beliefs actually lay - where I might need to move them from if I wanted to convince t... |
bb645e11-2e08-42a0-b511-6f157d2b9186 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Club Update and Chapter 1
This post summarizes response to the Less Wrong Book Club and Study Group proposal, floats a tentative virtual meetup schedule, and offers some mechanisms for keeping up to date with the group's work. We end with summaries of Chapter 1.
Statistics
The proposal for a LW book club and st... |
a29eb198-e0a6-4a0c-afcc-70ad71cc2bfa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Walkthrough of A Mathematical Framework for Transformer Circuits
A Mathematical Framework for Transformer Circuits is, in my opinion, the coolest paper I've ever had the privilege of working on. But it's also very long and dense and at times confusing, and this makes me sad! So I've run an experiment, where I record... |
ea30a8f3-a2d7-4df5-b452-6e8b3485c20a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Bayesian Theory of Mind: Modeling Joint Belief-Desire Attribution
Bayesian Theory of Mind: Modeling Joint Belief-Desire Attribution
Chris L. Baker (clbaker@mit.edu)
Rebecca R. Saxe (saxe@mit.edu)
Joshua B. Tenenbaum (jbt@mit.edu)
Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, MIT
Cambridge, MA 02139
Abstract
We present a... |
1b388d88-2ff9-433b-adf2-216d425957d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Salt Lake City UT — Open Possibilities and Improv Skills
Discussion article for the meetup : Salt Lake City UT — Open Possibilities and Improv Skills
WHEN: 09 March 2014 02:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Kafeneios Coffeehouse, 258 W 3300 S, Salt Lake City UT
Less Wrong Meetup
"Why should I come to this meetup?" y... |
83b14fd6-7e59-45ca-840a-7374f8344430 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What's in a Pause?
An AI Moratorium of some sort has been discussed, but details matter - it’s not particularly meaningful to agree or disagree with a policy that has no details. A discussion requires concrete claims.
To start, I see three key questions, namely:
1. What does a moratorium include?
2. When and how wo... |
949b5455-97f5-4f1b-9d37-5a360004f9d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blog Respectably
The best way to learn how to write is to take classes. The best way to take classes is via a university degree. I earned my master's in blogging at the University of Pens.
Besides teaching you how to write, a university provides necessary credentials. You wouldn't be reading this post if I weren't fo... |
f7d8b30b-45f7-4c30-b0ed-f7c160650f1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Cologne meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Cologne meetup
WHEN: 23 January 2016 05:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Marienweg 43, 50858 Köln
Next meetup is Jan 23rd 2016, Marienweg 43, 50858 Köln at 5 pm. If you want to attend and did not sign up in our Doodle please notify my via PM.
Discussion arti... |
2ddfc26b-c0d1-4863-a51c-50a15a16eef1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have general decomposers been formalized?
Hi, I'm working on a response to ML projects on IDA focusing on a specific decomposer, and I don't know if someone's formalized what a decomposer is in the general case.
Intuitively, a system is a decomposer if it can take a thing and break it down into sub-things with a spe... |
29b3a0af-e6e8-48a9-85b1-f008dbb1b968 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Dehumanisation *errors*
In response to my post [contrasting value learning with anthropomorphisation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LkytHQSKbQFf6toW5/anthropomorphisation-vs-value-learning-type-1-vs-type-2), steve2152 brought up the fact that [dehumanisation can be seen as the opposite of anthropomorphisation](https... |
8aef37b3-ce7e-403b-8ba0-e78ef59d2b85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | IAPS: Mapping Technical Safety Research at AI Companies
> As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become more advanced, concerns about large-scale risks from misuse or accidents have grown. This report analyzes the technical research into safe AI development being conducted by three leading AI companies: Anthropic, Go... |
931b6a15-b132-437f-b4c8-3ff49982cd15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Second-Order Rationality, System Rationality, and a feature suggestion for LessWrong
Second-order rationality
Definition
By “second-order rationality” (and intelligence) I mean the study of rationally reasoning about other people’s rationality (and intelligence) in order to inform us about the world.
This is oppose... |
31b7313d-f8cd-42c1-88e4-49efbabe1e62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin Social Meetup
WHEN: 20 April 2013 07:30:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: U Leinestr, 12049 Berlin, Germany
Our next regular social meetup will be held on Saturday 20th April. We're meeting at John's place: If you're interested in coming, join our mailing l... |
cfe8a318-d0f6-4be9-97c7-afb0229f7f5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Recommend HAIST resources for assessing the value of RLHF-related alignment research
**Overview:** we're trying to form inside views about the value of alignment research related to RLHF. Recommend us reading material expressing relevant arguments.
The [Harvard AI Safety Team](https://haist.ai/) (HAIST) is the AI saf... |
81b56cc1-d691-40bc-99bb-3e8b93edd986 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quote on Nate Silver, and how to think about probabilities
From Ezra Klein:
> If Mitt Romney wins on election day, it doesn’t mean Silver’s model was wrong. After all, the model has been fluctuating between giving Romney a 25 percent and 40 percent chance of winning the election. That’s a pretty good chance! If you t... |
55ec2805-f6b5-41a6-ac29-2104daceb7ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Musk, Mars and x-risk
Article on space.com
> Elon Musk, the billionaire founder and CEO of the private spaceflight company SpaceX, wants to help establish a Mars colony of up to 80,000 people by ferrying explorers to the Red Planet for perhaps $500,000 a trip.
Relevant Sagan quote:
> (...) we've put all our eggs ... |
220a8737-7a84-4d3a-bba5-286e686e9b6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Politics Discussion Thread December 2012
I skipped October and November owing to election season, but opening back up:
1. Top-level comments should introduce arguments; responses should be responses to those arguments.
2. Upvote and downvote based on whether or not you find an argument convincing in the context in... |
b17c7a59-139d-49ef-9ee0-8db1cb8887a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Good depictions of speed mismatches between advanced AI systems and humans?
Advanced AI systems can potentially perceive, decide, and act much faster than humans can -- perhaps many orders of magnitude faster. Given that we're used to intelligent agents all operating at about human speed, the effects of this 'speed mi... |
ee8f8ae0-959a-4df0-abaa-ffd4f5b6493a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kosher Hot Dogs
If ever there were an industry that no one in their right mind would trust, it's hot dogs. First rule of hot dogs: you do not want to know what's in it. But in this unsavory industry, Hebrew National stands out. The slogan on the company's site summarizes their advantage well:
> When your hot dog's ko... |
78d51a2f-35b8-487a-bff2-dd0ccf33a552 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian analysis under threat in British courts
This is an interesting article talking about the use of bayes in british courts and efforts to improve how statistics are used in court cases. Probably worth keeping an eye on. It might expose more people to bayes if it becomes common and thus portrayed in TV dramas. |
b206dc15-fe63-46fd-95f5-b9e1fa351deb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A better analogy and example for teaching AI takeover: the ML Inferno
*Epistemic Status: entirely speculative*
*Note: this article was assisted by ChatGPT*
A very common example given for AI takeover is [silently killing all humans with nanotech](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of... |
2dc2532e-db18-4816-ba1a-c502ad2e95a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Here, have a calmness video
This is a bit of an unusual post.
I have gotten the impression that a lot of people are kind of freaked out, either by AI or weird Bay Area social dynamics in general.
I also think that a lot of freak-out reactions are driven at least as much by social contagion as any fact-based assessme... |
79542e2e-5fac-4c66-9a5b-7e5040a17af6 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "An early draft of publication #2 in the Open Problems in Friendly AI series is now available: Tiling Agents for Self-Modifying AI, and the Lobian Obstacle. ~20,000 words, aimed at mathematicians or the highly mathematically literate. The research reported on was conducted by Yudkowsky and Herreshoff, substantially ref... |
b046ba80-7f3c-46da-a97e-878ef26dc3dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Simple Math of Everything
Today's post, The Simple Math of Everything was originally published on 17 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> It is enormously advantageous to know the basic mathematical equations at the base of a field. Understanding a few simple equations of evolutiona... |
f89182db-e7c0-43ed-b09b-33c8cca36c2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scientist vs. philosopher on conceptual analysis
In Less Wrong Rationality and Mainstream Philosophy, Conceptual Analysis and Moral Theory, and Pluralistic Moral Reductionism, I suggested that traditional philosophical conceptual analysis often fails to be valuable. Neuroscientist V.S. Ramachandran has recently made s... |
a0f1d9a8-7f09-4505-b60a-bc661e5eb640 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subscripts for Probabilities
cross-posted from niplav.github.io
Gwern has wondered about a use-case for subscripts in hypertext. While they have settled on a specific use-case, namely years for citations, I propose a different one: reporting explicit probabilities.
Explicitely giving for probabilities in day-to-day ... |
8645517a-3928-4a20-ba1b-8b2c4b9ccec7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will the AGIs be able to run the civilisation?
Even an AGI "aligned" to a purpose which doesn't imply humanity's survival but does require the AGI itself to achieve difficult feats like transforming the entire Solar System into something computing as many digits of pi as possible would obviously still need to produce... |
c5b7431a-f3ac-4ac9-9667-9302e0807290 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup :
Discussion article for the meetup :
WHEN: 10 May 2013 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Berkeley
Discussion article for the meetup : |
f4b49fce-e60a-4aad-a78a-e6f60c1b35d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If we get things right, AI could have huge benefits
There is no contradiction between AI carrying huge potential risks, and it carrying huge potential upsides if we navigate the risks. Both are a consequence of the prospect of AI becoming extremely powerful.
The benefits that human-aligned AGI could bring are a major... |
90c977fc-4247-4bd8-8816-bfd01dd0c7e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Let's talk about "Convergent Rationality"
**What this post is about:** I'm outlining some thoughts on what I've been calling "convergent rationality". I think this is an important core concept for AI-Xrisk, and probably a big crux for a lot of disagreements. **It's going to be hand-wavy!** It also ended up being a lot... |
4f72b4a3-f1ad-432f-88cb-28e77a2cf2f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Argument by Intellectual Ordeal
There once was an extremely annoying child named Jacob. One time during recess, Jacob decided to take up the entire playground bench by lying down on it horizontally. A classmate came up to him and said something like: "You're taking up the whole bench! That's not fair!" Jacob responded... |
dff937c4-e15e-4343-bb58-13922e613692 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dubstep and algorithmic information theory
I think this visualization by YouTube entity dubzophrenia is a decent introduction to some intuitions driving algorithmic information theory, at least for people who like dubstep:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwkcY8spx_g&feature=channel_video_title
(Please watch in 720p; ... |
29c00f12-9077-4485-b34b-4b01a3a9790f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #66: Oh to Be Less Online
Tomorrow I will fly out to San Francisco, to spend Friday through Monday at the LessOnline conference at Lighthaven in Berkeley. If you are there, by all means say hello. If you are in the Bay generally and want to otherwise meet, especially on Monday, let me know that too and I will see i... |
ad29579d-9a38-4bb6-a6be-e7ead6147cd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring Mild Behaviour in Embedded Agents
Thanks to Tristan Cook, Emery Cooper, Nicolas Macé and Will Payne for discussions, advice, and comments. All views are my own.
I think this post is best viewed as an effort to point at a potentially interesting research direction. The specific arguments I make centered arou... |
7b78b217-1224-4c9d-b143-36c404771323 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A survey of tool use and workflows in alignment research
TL;DR: We are building language model powered tools to augment alignment researchers and accelerate alignment progress. We could use your feedback on what tools would be most useful. We’ve created a short survey that can be filled out here.
We are a team from t... |
7839d905-5754-46ff-998b-6ee065437c1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking: more Sci Fi micro reviews
I wrote a whole bunch of 2 sentence reviews of various Sci Fi books in an earlier post, but now I'm running out of books!
I'd appreciate if people could add their own micro reviews here to give me more ideas for books to read. |
2abb09e6-1bad-4f46-a261-3901923f35c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fauci’s Emails and the Lab Leak Hypothesis
Introduction
When trying to understand why the emails of Fauci might or might not be a big deal, most of the online sources I found look at individual emails while individual emails alone are not enough to understand what’s happening. After watching a video that points to the... |
226ea687-797c-4907-9597-c2143e38f6ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vote on values
I. A problem
I have heard pessimism lately about whether democracy can produce good decisions frequently enough to stop everything rapidly going to Hell. Primary concerns are that voters are ignorant and that voters are evil. Supposing voters are evil, arguably any good system of government should brin... |
f1d8175d-0c8e-4d4e-a670-0104d2c4c87d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Relative Behavioral Attributes: Filling the Gap between Symbolic Goal Specification and Reward Learning from Human Preferences
1 Introduction
---------------
A central problem in building versatile autonomous agents is how to specify and customize agent behaviors. Two representative ways to specify tasks include
ma... |
47bca8e9-4d84-420d-8b30-adedaec5fc0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do we care about agency for alignment?
Many people believe that understanding "agency" is crucial for alignment, but as far as I know, there isn't a canonical list of reasons why we care about agency. Please describe any reasons why we might care about the concept of agency for understanding alignment below. If yo... |
1b9a84d7-a458-4140-9218-27c13dff305d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | James Miller on Unusual Incentives Facing AGI Companies
[James D. Miller](http://sophia.smith.edu/~jdmiller/resume.pdf) is an associate professor of economics at [Smith College](http://www.smith.edu/). He is the author... |
e11c10f2-2c8e-4c0f-91ed-d31937224e5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comfort Zone Exploration
Epistemic status: Mixed
The concepts which inspired the CoZE unit (such as exposure therapy and the explore/exploit problem in probability) are generally well-researched and under- stood. However, our combination of these concepts with an outlook of curiosity and epistemic uncertainty has cha... |
11fe89b3-f452-4660-849e-6dfca972b58e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Don't accelerate problems you're trying to solve
If one believes that unaligned AGI is a significant problem (>10% chance of leading to catastrophe), speeding up public progress towards AGI is obviously bad.
Though it is obviously bad, there may be circumstances which require it. However, accelerating AGI should requ... |
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