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4b665037-1644-4081-a3a2-53e6fdbb2971 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal-Direction for Simulated Agents
tldr: consistent LLM failure suggests possible avenue for alignment and control
epistemic status: somewhat hastily written, speculative in places, but lots of graphs of actual model probabilities
Today in ‘surprisingly simple tasks that even the most powerful large language models... |
2d7a572e-82e7-4aec-afe2-74eac8885b82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Starting Meditation
[Update] this intent has been put on hold. Check this comment for details. This note was put at the top, because whenever I see a post about "I'm going to do XYZ" my most burning question is always, "Well did they?"
I think since about last winter I've been convinced that there is something really... |
840d1fef-b8fb-4b6a-bbd6-77cc6e2befaa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #122]: Arguing for AGI-driven existential risk from first principles
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[thi... |
30c99f82-928f-4205-8fdb-5f8461d78c34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wireheading Done Right: Stay Positive Without Going Insane
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a649e96f-4305-4229-9818-a42765f76678 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clipboard Filtering
Here's a pattern I find pretty useful:
pbpaste | some_command | pbcopy
For example:
* Converting spaces to tabs, for pasting into a spreadsheet program: pbpaste | tr ' ' '\t' | pbcopy
* Converting tabs and newlines to html table formatting: pbpaste | sed 's/^/<tr><td>/' | sed 's/\t/<td>/g'... |
d8e1265f-35ec-4449-8be3-80e0130e0c36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Jackpot Jinx (or why “Superintelligence Strategy” is wrong)
On March 5, 2025 Dan Hendrycks, Eric Schmidt, and Alexandr Wang published “Superintelligence Strategy”, a paper that suggests a number of policies for national security in the era of AI. Central to their recommendations is a concept they call “Mutual Assu... |
e2bc1826-2345-4bf1-8af7-f55b325e43e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the length of the Covid-19 incubation period likely to be affected by whether you are vaccinated?
Covid-19 symptoms typically present 2-14 days after exposure in unvaccinated people, with an average presentation at 5 days post-exposure.
Is this period likely to be affected by having been vaccinated? Amongst those ... |
56d2ad50-2656-47ee-83ca-64b9f86b8893 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | St. Louis, Missouri Meetup - now happening every week!
I got inspired by the NY meetup post by Cosmos, and I'd love to get a recurring meetup started in St. Louis.
Where: Kayak Coffee at Skinker and Forest Park Parkway, near Washington University.
When: Every Tuesday from 6-8 PM, until and including May 3, 2011 and ... |
a2a36d70-5e13-44ee-bba8-b1fdf8e81aff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Challenges of Aligning Artificial Intelligence with Human Values
54Margit Sutrop
Acta Baltica Historiae et Philosophiae Scientiarum
Vol. 8, No. 2 (Autumn 2020) Acta Baltica Historiae et Philosophiae Scientiarum
Vol. 8, No. 2 (Autumn 2020)
DOI : 10.11590/abhps.2020.2.04
Challenges of Aligning Artificial Intelligen... |
9b8c7507-c41d-415f-be0a-5edcc95c1644 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The issue of meaning in large language models (LLMs)
*Cross posted* [*from New Savanna*](https://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2023/03/the-issue-of-meaning-in-large-language.html)*.*
Noam Chomsky was trotted out to write a dubious op-ed in *The New York Times* about large language models and Scott Aaronson registered his... |
bfc7303c-1784-481a-b6fa-a4d8f125475b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spreadsheet for 200 Concrete Problems In Interpretability
Thanks to the Open Source Mechanistic Interpretability Slack for their feedback.
When going through Neel's excellent 200 Concrete Problems In Interpretability sequence, I found myself thinking "It sure would be great to have a single document I could go throug... |
c3783189-f422-4fe3-a177-9b7d5c6ef608 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Summary: Willpower by Baumeister, Tierney
I recently read this book. I've tried to summarize the main points below -- you can read my notes here (MSWord doc). You might also find Derek Sivers' notes useful, which can be found here.
NOTE: The general model of willpower (as a finite resource consumed with use) use... |
4e926ba9-ab40-4126-863f-f8aae83d0397 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra Scott on Abolishing the FDA
Scott Alexander’s recent post on the FDA raises the average level of discourse on the subject. He starts from the premise that the FDA deserves destruction but cautions against rash action. No political slogan can be implemented without clarification and “Abolish the FDA” is no diffe... |
6808bb29-ac74-4953-a73f-44aafd0403e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Setting the Zero Point
Context: I have hopes of assembling a full "defense against the dark arts" sequence. This essay will not necessarily be the very first one in the sequence, but it's One Of The Basic Spells To Defend Against, and it's the one I happen to have done the most data gathering on so it's getting writte... |
367d135d-0eeb-4a6c-aaf3-ecf79b0afa5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Bitter Lesson for AI Safety Research
Read the associated paper "Safetywashing: Do AI Safety Benchmarks
Actually Measure Safety Progress?": https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.21792
Focus on safety problems that aren’t solved with scale.
Benchmarks are crucial in ML to operationalize the properties we want models to have ... |
c6c826fe-55bf-4344-b149-98652b0327d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Environments as a bottleneck in AGI development
Given a training environment or dataset, a training algorithm, an optimiser, and a model class capable of implementing an AGI (with the right parameters), there are two interesting questions we might ask about how conducive that environment is for training an AGI. The fi... |
fcb1ec5a-f9ed-483f-81d3-aa5853352884 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Modeling the impact of safety agendas
*This post, which deals with how safety research - that is, technical research agendas aiming to reduce AI existential risk - might impact risks from AI, is part 6 in our* [*sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/aERZoriyHfCqvWkzg)*. In this... |
4af8c191-3c76-4f13-ae87-6d1d80b4aaef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Relationship Outcomes Are Not Particularly Sensitive to Small Variations in Verbal Ability
After a friendship-ending fight, you feel an impulse to push through the pain to do an exhaustive postmortem of everything you did wrong in that last, fatal argument—you could have phrased that more eloquently, could have antici... |
8a539c2e-f5d8-4665-8642-5efb49fd5051 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Utility uncertainty vs. expected information gain
It is a relatively intuitive thought that if a Bayesian agent is uncertain about its utility function, it will act more conservatively until it has a better handle on what its true utility function is.
This might be deeply flawed in a way that I'm not aware of, but I'... |
d9658a21-00c7-4823-bbe4-ecab3a5d00f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Debating with More Persuasive LLMs Leads to More Truthful Answers
We've just completed a bunch of empirical work on LLM debate, and we're excited to share the results. If the title of this post is at all interesting to you, we recommend heading straight to the paper. There are a lot of interesting results that are har... |
f9e0858c-de8e-45d2-9d15-f7fbf278ff06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New AI risks research institute at Oxford University
The Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology (aka FutureTech) is a new research department at Oxford University, roughly a spin-off of FHI, but focusing on AI and nanotech risks and differential technological development. Like FHI, this department... |
3d5b5539-3d99-453d-981c-687799a66254 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Regularizing-Reducing Model
The linked document is my (last-minute) submission for the AI alignment prize. Feedback is appreciated, even though it cannot change my submission entry. |
654ced21-1ec6-42cc-9f06-9123c1a2519e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is meta-RL?
You can learn about this computer science concept [here](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLoROMvodv4rNjRoawgt72BBNwL2V7doGI).
|
e4a16214-2c0e-4bc2-bb90-45e137b5f6af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distillation of "How Likely Is Deceptive Alignment?"
Summary
Deceptive alignment seems to be the likely outcome of training a sufficiently intelligent AI using gradient descent. An ML model with a long term goal and an understanding of its training process would probably pretend to be aligned during training, as this... |
d08853ca-0f31-4098-a8a1-109136e08458 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Episode 5 of Tsuyoku Naritai (the 'becoming stronger' podcast): The Stance
Transcript in show notes, as always!
https://anchor.fm/tsuyokunaritai/episodes/Episode-5---The-Stance-e434pj |
3d0154cb-af64-4851-8370-d78378b9bf25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your inner Google
I just heard a comment by Braddock of Lovesystems that was brilliant: All that your brain does when you ask it a question is hit "search" and return the first hit it finds. So be careful how you phrase your question.
Say you just arrived at work, and realized you once again left your security pass... |
0466349e-4c5b-4e18-9bda-9d496a25eab8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ureshiku Naritai
This is a supplement to the luminosity sequence. In this comment, I mentioned that I have raised my happiness set point (among other things), and this declaration was met with some interest. Some of the details are lost to memory, but below, I reconstruct for your analysis what I can of the process.... |
03236393-82ef-4d57-8325-c33b75bb8460 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta wants to use AI to write Wikipedia articles; I am Nervous™
Meta is experimenting with using AI to write Wikipedia articles: https://ai.facebook.com/research/publications/generating-full-length-wikipedia-biographies-the-impact-of-gender-bias-on-the-retrieval-based-generation-of-women-biographies
I personally hav... |
f39978cc-7a69-40de-bb5b-a24ad2464676 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #86: Just Think of the Potential
Dario Amodei is thinking about the potential. The result is a mostly good essay called Machines of Loving Grace, outlining what can be done with ‘powerful AI’ if we had years of what was otherwise relative normality to exploit it in several key domains, and we avoided negative outco... |
c40e46eb-adbe-43da-a6bd-a9eea0bc87c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Walk while you talk: don't balk at "no chalk"
Some days ago, after a long conversation with a friend, I took retrospective notes, recalling what we discussed. (I wrote over 50 items. This is not a small sample.) For parts of the time, we walked; for other parts, we stayed in roughly the same place. Writing the notes, ... |
f9d74a89-c2e0-4acd-b186-e822c9d53e38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Heritability, Behaviorism, and Within-Lifetime RL
I’m a firm subscriber to both:
* (A) The theory that people’s personalities are significantly predictable from their genes, and mostly independent of how their parents raised them (at least within the typical distribution, i.e. leaving aside cases of flagrant abuse a... |
c305fdae-239d-43af-ad84-05e2bfaa63d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #172] Sorry for the long hiatus!
Listen to this newsletter on The Alignment Newsletter Podcast.
Alignment Newsletter is a publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever bee... |
e549bb8c-4b75-4b53-818e-63e430c31ca4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Examples of Mitigating Assumption Risk
One of the subskills mentioned in Eliezer's Security Mindset post is mitigating assumption risk–that is, the risk of losing utility because some of your assumptions are wrong. There are two main ways to do this:
1. Gain more information about whether your assumptions hold
2. M... |
effd36ec-73b4-4a9e-9026-18df30454d9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TOMORROW: the largest AI Safety protest ever!
Tomorrow, PauseAI and collaborators are putting on the largest AI Safety protest to date, across 7 locations in 6 countries. All are eagerly welcomed!
Your presence at this protest is a rare impact opportunity when in-person volunteering is not fungible with money or int... |
564f4e66-fb78-427f-9e6b-2305a6c2dec3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Another Critique of Effective Altruism
I’ve decided to branch out a bit from technical discussions and engage in, as Scott Aaronson would call it, some [metaphysical spouting](http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?cat=12). The topic of today is the effective altruism movement. I’m about to be relentlessly critical of it,... |
fd4523f5-fc12-4c42-9fae-3fa2774bcfe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simpson's Paradox
This is my first attempt at an elementary statistics post, which I hope is suitable for Less Wrong. I am going to present a discussion of a statistical phenomenon known as Simpson's Paradox. This isn't a paradox, and it wasn't actually discovered by Simpson, but that's the name everybody uses for it,... |
de7dd82e-2fc4-4ab1-8b2b-e192dbd9fc7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asgardia - The Space Kingdom
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c9e2eb69-30b9-4a44-8dfe-9a2c1b981276 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My MATS Summer 2023 experience
This post may be interest people who
- are interested in getting into AI alignment / the MATS program
- are interested in the soft skills that I've found valuable in developing when working on a research project
Background
In 2023 I was working as a machine learning engineer. I wanted ... |
f36fc467-d58a-48e8-9153-86f670639515 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Religion = Cult + Culture
[copied in full -- request to develop community knowledge/practices?]
Cults are not necessarily bad. Cults provide value. People join them to get things they need which aren’t provided elsewhere. Every cult is a spiritual start-up, doing its best to serve a neglected segment of the populatio... |
3440581e-3b6f-49f4-adc3-3909380e9ece | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vote in the LessWrong review! (LW 2022 Review voting phase)
Click here to begin voting. Click here for a general overview of the 2022 review.
The final phase of the 2022 review is upon us! We’ve spent 2 weeks nominating posts, and a month reviewing them. And today, we begin the final vote!
The LessWrong Review has t... |
364c8790-1598-4a4c-ae61-998215ee0e48 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Risk US Presidental Candidate
With AI risk getting significant media attention lately (FLI open letter, Eliezer's letter), I think it's plausible that the Overton window has expanded enough where a presidential candidate talking about it won't get immediately laughed off stage.
In addition, there seems to be incre... |
b9873e0c-5d7f-4121-be47-a735f960b5ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crossing the Rubicon.
I heard someone say that 2022 was the year that AI crossed the Rubicon and I thought that was an apt description. To be sure, the actual date when the Rubicon was crossed was before the release of ChatGPT, but for most humans on the planet Earth that was the day the world took notice, if only fo... |
397de659-2ccb-4791-926a-c5bc3e504ce7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stuff I might do if I had covid
In case anyone wants a rough and likely inaccurate guide to what I might do if I had covid to mitigate it, I looked into this a bit recently and wrote notes. It’s probably better than if one’s plan was to do less than a few hours of research, but is likely flawed all over the place and ... |
d496734b-7ac2-4824-8bdb-6b4064708e24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pomodoros worked during a day: an analysis of Alex’s data
Regular readers know that I am always on the lookout for software engineering data. One search technique is to feed a 'magic' phrase into a search engine, this can locate data hiding in plain sight. This week the magic phrase: "record of pomodoros" returned p... |
09ef1785-e421-4d15-9f97-963bd59628eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some mind experiments
This post’s aim is not to prove or disprove the morality of utilitarianism. I only want to raise some provocative questions through mind experiments that shows extreme consequences of some forms of utilitarianism.
Let’s assume that Omega has an evil twin: Psi.
Psi really likes to play with hu... |
8b433b3b-3ea3-4ebb-b5fb-e35f964b9b95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 15. Conclusion: Open problems, how to help, AMA
(Last revised: July 2024. See changelog at the bottom.)
15.1 Post summary / Table of contents
This is the final post of the “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series! Thanks for reading this far!
* In Section 15.2, I’ll list seven ... |
f5e0ee39-8e34-44f5-9bce-34a7656b63b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Resilience Via Fragmented Power
This post explores a big-picture idea - that our civilization is more resilient when power is fragmented, in contrast with concentrated power. A world with fragmented power cannot be dominated or destroyed by a small group, and so is more resilient. Concentrated power is what enables ... |
6f6e1ee0-ae86-4bcc-aa6b-8e93d4da02b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Orthogonality Thesis in layman's terms.
I've created a video as an intuition pump for the Orthogonality Thesis and I'd like feedback from the community. Here is the transcript:
Now, if you ask: Why would something so clever want something so stupid, that would lead to death or hell for its creator? you are missin... |
57ab999b-3b4e-4153-93da-a0d87c2d8a9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Hypothetical Takeover Scenario Twitter Poll
I ran an experimental poll sequence on Twitter a few weeks back, on the subject of what would happen if a hostile ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) tried to take over the world and kill all humans, using only ordinary known techs.
The hope was that by exploring this, it ... |
ff66c710-7432-4b4c-b777-06aa23e493cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Posts with comments crash (bug's probably in comment rendering). The comment rss works.
I'm just putting this here in case it helps someone fix the problem, mods; feel free to delete this once things are fixed.
It seems posts with comments crash (so the bug's probably in the comment rendering code or something). Post... |
a20d7706-954d-4bec-b857-321e955c6f13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the nature of help - a framework for helping
It is important to define ‘help’ before delving further into the topic. I would like to avoid using dictionary definitions when trying to be concrete about the essence of a word. Albeit sometimes useful, dictionaries strive to provide a short and concise explanation of a... |
f4c69c3a-11ff-4b4a-b687-c11377f6735f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post123
This is a personal post and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of other members of Apollo Research. If we want to argue that the risk of harm from scheming in an AI system is low, we could, among others, make the following arguments: Detection: If our AI system is scheming, we have good reasons to be... |
4d921914-f39f-415f-bb22-f8329e69d4a2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Group presentation
summary(Technical): A presentation $\langle X \mid R \rangle$ of a [group](https://arbital.com/p/3gd) $G$ is a set $X$ of *generators* and a set $R$ of *relators* which are words on $X \cup X^{-1}$, such that $G \cong F(X) / \llangle R \rrangle^{F(X)}$ the [https://arbital.com/p/-normal_closure](htt... |
ab4abe8d-03f9-49bd-be31-60c67d70adb5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Integration of Imitation Learning using GAIL and Reinforcement Learning using Task-achievement Rewards via Probabilistic Graphical Model
1 Introduction
---------------
The integration of reinforcement learning (RL) and imitation learning (IL) is an important problem that has been studied for a long time in the fiel... |
52a4e1f7-6bd6-4ff7-b52a-28699d656ce4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Sympathetic Minds
Today's post, Sympathetic Minds was originally published on 19 January 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Mirror neurons are neurons that fire both when performing an action oneself, and watching someone else perform the same action - for example, a neuron that fires when you... |
c1ba06af-3804-4584-bb65-bc218cc6b2d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne social meetup
WHEN: 16 March 2012 07:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: see mailing list; Carlton, VIC
Melbourne's next social meetup is on the 16th of March - as usual, at Ben's house. See the mailing list for the address - or you can call or text ... |
88c41432-d033-49df-ba16-e7c6d4e3e865 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Human beats SOTA Go AI by learning an adversarial policy
*See also [article in Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/175e5314-a7f7-4741-a786-273219f433a1)*
Apparently, a human (Kellin Pelrine, a solid player but not even a Go professional) was able to beat some state-of-the-art Go AIs (KataGo and Leela Zero) b... |
2be71727-de41-438e-b959-f585bebaaaed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sparse MLP Distillation
This is a research report about my attempt to extract interpretable features from a transformer MLP by distilling it into a larger student MLP, while encouraging sparsity by applying an L1 penalty to the activations, as depicted in Figure 1. I investigate the features learned by the distilled M... |
9162f139-4880-4ae0-9de6-48d3e3bb9e50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Rationality through Deckbuilders
Deckbuilding games are a great way to train rationality. They're usually composed of high-dimensional cost/benefit analyses under uncertainty: you don't know precisely what future enemies you might encounter, or the particular hand you'll be dealt. All you can do is shift prob... |
1e024b7d-42bd-4ac7-800d-b967f008ca7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to determine if my sympathetic or my parasympathetic nervous system is currently dominant?
I've been reading CFAR Handbook's chapter about Againstness. The chapter's idea is that when your sympathetic nervous system (SNS) is dominant over parasympathetic nervous system (PSNS), your introspection is impaired and yo... |
ec1ef24f-3278-4b0f-b043-173c591891cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | JumpReLU SAEs + Early Access to Gemma 2 SAEs
New paper from the Google DeepMind mechanistic interpretability team, led by Sen Rajamanoharan!
We introduce JumpReLU SAEs, a new SAE architecture that replaces the standard ReLUs with discontinuous JumpReLU activations, and seems to be (narrowly) state of the art over exi... |
73ad1d77-ea2d-488b-b0e9-85951f1fe665 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AGI x-risk timelines: 10% chance (by year X) estimates should be the headline, not 50%.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) poses an [existential risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence) (x-risk) to all known sentient life. Given the stakes involved -- the whole wor... |
16aaebaa-14e4-4dc1-8eb1-16f3e29fc0db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Operationalizing Newcomb's Problem
The standard formulation of Newcomb's problem has always bothered me, because it seemed like a weird hypothetical designed to make people give the wrong answer. When I first saw it, my immediate response was that I would two-box, because really, I just don't believe in this "perfect ... |
3a2dbeb9-f4ce-460e-b537-b0c74cee4894 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Portable Chargers are Great
Portable chargers are great and underrated. For $20 you can get a little box that can charge a phone ~5x or laptop ~1x. [1] You can pay a bit more for one with built-in wall-charging and cables. It's great throwing one in my backpack and knowing I don't have to ration or worry, especially w... |
0a8fd769-6f46-4295-a6c6-b9a7baa1a416 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How dangerous is human-level AI?
I don't expect anything here to be original; this is just me thinking things through, and perhaps this post will be useful as a relatively stand-alone argument.
Typically, you can envision many many more future states than there are future states you could bring about. You can imagine... |
9630b74c-f516-479c-8572-c03e163bbbfc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Technology path dependence and evaluating expertise
Muireall
I often wonder if I'd be able to tell if a technology were uncompetitive for fundamental viability reasons or for reasons of path dependence—if the ultimate performance would be a winner once we'd worked out a few trillion dollars of kinks, but we never go d... |
f73a7742-3979-491a-82b6-23cb6b257fef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instead of "I'm anxious," try "I feel threatened"
cw: teaching to learn
I have a long history with anxiety, and I’m pretty good at noticing when it’s happening. The problem is that I’m always anxious. Noticing anxiety doesn’t snap me out of anxiety– in fact, it often produces meta-anxiety, anxiety about feeling anxio... |
5a9d6101-1657-4828-9ca0-f4b4dcb46b23 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post369
In this post, I’ll talk about trustworthiness , a concept similar to scheming and deceptive alignment. I prefer this concept, as I find it A) is directly important in practice, B) more readily distinguishes between capability for scheming and in fact scheming , and C) is clearer how to evaluate for. I’ll a... |
d30e4ab7-0113-4140-ac10-ef795059b496 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Grading on Word Count
One of the most common forms of schoolwork is the writing assignment. The idea is that, if a student understands the subject, they should be able to demonstrate that by writing about the subject. These kinds of assignments are widely considered to improve comprehension and writing skill in additi... |
35c4e9ed-e165-4b9a-b995-818670733e3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summary: "How to Read Books and Write Essays" by OSP's Blue
This post is part of my "research" series.
Blue. How to Read Books and Write Essays. Overly Sarcastic Productions, 2019. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3v8-j1znXM.
Why
This got recommended at the end of Red's video on how to do research and can be consid... |
bedfe035-1843-422d-b550-11d2ccc72f8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Other people are wrong" vs "I am right"
I’ve recently been spending some time thinking about the rationality mistakes I’ve made in the past. Here’s an interesting one: I think I have historically been too hasty to go from “other people seem very wrong on this topic” to “I am right on this topic”.
Throughout my life,... |
9b492d9d-10b3-4ed9-900b-f71fe99152f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ARC paper: Formalizing the presumption of independence
(I did not have anything to do with this paper and these are just my own takes.)
The Alignment Research Center recently published their second report, Formalizing the presumption of independence. While it's not explicitly about AI alignment, it's probably still i... |
07dc0cdf-0d00-4f98-bfa8-e639a6352e05 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability: Neel Nanda at SERI MATS
kill
yeah that'd be too
um all right so for the people I've not
met before
um hi I'm Neil I used to work at
anthropic doing mechanistic
interpretability of Transformers I have
spent the last couple of months as an
independent researcher do... |
a7c0c57a-2a6b-4543-8cfa-55167a99bd79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Services as a Research Paradigm
Introduction
============
I would hereby like to advertise a document [Systems of Services
as a Paradigm for AI Alignment](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jk2GgJnF9pLIQqg9hgX0Tvdukq6MR2qmXW3FyvqiiUg/edit?usp=sharing). I hope that it can serve as a starting point for investigati... |
9e154aae-fb5b-42fb-b187-2f20d6917304 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Division of cognitive labour in accordance with researchers' ability
The variance in productivity between people is much greater in some areas than in others. The most productive cleaner is probably less than twice as productive as the average cleaner, whereas the most productive entrepreneur arguably is many times mo... |
9880b18f-a5e6-4bf5-b7ec-602939f57902 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Optimization and the Intelligence Explosion
Among the topics I haven’t delved into here is the notion of an optimization process. Roughly, this is the idea that your power as a mind is your ability to hit small targets in a large search space—this can be either the space of possible futures (planning) or the space of ... |
5ae2c4ca-2ec2-4b68-84e2-9fb7aaa4d49e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian Flame
There once lived a great man named E.T. Jaynes. He knew that Bayesian inference is the only way to do statistics logically and consistently, standing on the shoulders of misunderstood giants Laplace and Gibbs. On numerous occasions he vanquished traditional "frequentist" statisticians with his superior ... |
266fa1c3-4f32-4442-8ee1-a7e37ebb6734 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against utility functions
I think we should stop talking about utility functions.
In the context of ethics for humans, anyway. In practice I find utility functions to be, at best, an occasionally useful metaphor for discussions about ethics but, at worst, an idea that some people start taking too seriously and which ... |
4908a10e-2748-4d2b-a82e-6b81e19c27ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fiction: A Setting Justifying the Epistemic Aggressiveness Of A Religion Stand-in
I've just been thinking (a dangerous pastime, I know) and remembering my religious days, and one of the things that made me so anxious back then, and made adopting atheism so gratifying, what the sheer drought of information. I had so ma... |
35bb6681-a9f8-4d8d-bbcf-8632fefa6318 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Oracles: reject all deals - break superrationality, with superrationality
tl;dr Acausal trade between Oracles is a problem even if our Oracle is a causal decision theorist. To avoid this, we need an AFDT Oracle - an Oracle that reasons partially like a functional decision theorist, partially like a causal decision th... |
f5f7c009-6ecf-4fde-b82b-8ce894a319fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Justifying (Improper) Priors
EDIT: I tested this idea in a simulation and it (un)fortunately failed.
----------------------------------------
This post is an attempt to combine some parts of frequentism with some parts of Bayesianism. Unfortunately, there is a good deal of probability theory. I assume that "impr... |
904bc7e2-5a98-4356-98ea-9bb02a19d575 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Invitation to the Guild of the Rose — Alpha (formerly the Guild of Servants)
Salutatioиs,
You are cordіally invited to apply to the Guild of the Rose (edit: formerly the Guild of Servants), an organization dedicated to more effective tһinkіng and ӏiving, and providing support to our members and communities in this... |
9676976a-9a5f-4774-9440-0e44ddbcaa16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are information hazards?
This post was written for Convergence Analysis. Cross-posted to the EA Forum.
The concept of information hazards is highly relevant to many efforts to do good in the world (particularly, but not only, from the perspective of reducing existential risks). I’m thus glad that many effective ... |
5ed7a52c-854c-4436-b075-81b67f429352 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LessWrong Scotland
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Scotland
WHEN: 12 April 2015 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Biblos, 1 Chambers Street, Edinburgh EH1 1HR
We're going to meet in Edinburgh this time! I don't know the layout of the venue, but we'll be recognisable by books, stuffed owls, signs with... |
573a5245-e02b-4234-9257-e0613c0f193f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Data Secrets Lox: An Alternative to Slate Star Codex Open Threads
In light of the shutdown of Slate Star Codex, and in particular, the lack of new SSC Open Threads, much of the SSC community has moved to a new forum: Data Secrets Lox. Data Secrets Lox is a sort of "permanent open thread" for the SSC readers... |
780bc200-538a-4477-ac38-653655ff1840 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideas for rationalist meetup topics
(From Zvi Mowshowitz, leader of the New York group, and based on his experience)
Category 1: Discussions - The Base
A: Less Wrong topics. Usually recent posts. Often big hits.
B: Rationalist group planning and organization. Meta-topics. Dealing with group issues on occasion.
C: Sp... |
2be24a35-2bdd-4774-9b05-85eab350b5a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vague concepts, family resemblance and cluster properties
My definition of a "vague concept" (A):
* It creates a group of things that share family resemblance or "family difference".
* It doesn't have any meaning outside of context. But in a specific context it obtains specific meaning.
* It's very hard to unders... |
2e24daf6-116d-41ca-ad24-2d2cd1e850d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Risk Map of AI Systems
Joint work with Jan Kulveit. Many thanks to the various people who gave me feedback.
This text describes a model of the space of possible AI systems, as we try to navigate it safely towards AGI.[1] Its primary goal is to provide a simple mental model that people with disagreeing opinions about ... |
5cee260e-fae7-4796-8844-4fc9e8a0beaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What a 20-year-lead in military tech might look like
I've spent way too much time speculating about near-future military technology. Here is a list of technologies I think are likely to be important to a conventional war in, say, 2040.
If you think this list shouldn't be taken seriously because I don't have official ... |
6e3fc89a-27e7-4742-a03a-08f586ef9bd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI, Intellectual Property, and the Techno-Optimist Revolution
The emergence of generative Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) is putting computers at odds with creators and raising novel questions about the future of Intellectual Property (“IP”) law. Though scholars are scrambling to anticipate the legal consequences of AI... |
eafb2849-7f15-4adf-aac6-810e104d868f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | My current take on existential AI risk [FB post]
*Cross-posted from something I* [*wrote on Facebook*](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02KA372m29bwMPdiPPEYmhjDEfLP2ayyZPMJrgJxoBMPW5iyZFVVchbCbs53dTpMo6l&id=100010608396052)*. I doubt there's really anything new or important here for an EA audienc... |
6fc8f7ef-40a3-4282-b967-380fe3359d5d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Humans learn too: Better Human-AI Interaction using Optimized Human Inputs
Introduction
------------
In an industrial setting, production processes involving humans and robots are constantly improved to reduce errors and improving efficiency. Improvements target measures towards humans and machines alike in a holis... |
a9318986-880d-498c-a3f1-c597ceb4319f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How likely are malign priors over objectives? [aborted WIP]
This was written as part of an entry to the FTX AI competition, but I presume that's off now and I can't justify spending more time on it. Neither my thinking nor my writing is polished here. I believe some of the arguments are original.
In many (though not ... |
e79035e5-511d-4ab9-a7fb-971ac0aed22b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The biological intelligence explosion
Summary: Human genetic engineering could lead to intelligence enhancement that leads to genetic engineers who are better at genetic engineering (and research on pathways to improving intelligence). Which leads to a continuing process of greater and greater intelligence. This ite... |
ceb4299a-287b-4e7a-81ea-4c2c2b8339e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning to make better decisions
None |
3413cc84-dc36-44d9-b27a-b18e5909ed70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defusing Hate: A Strategic Communication Guide to Counteract Dangerous Speech
|
701b8d93-5558-42b2-92ce-7e98e96c060e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Mech Interp Project Advising Call: Memorisation in GPT-2 Small
I've recently been having advising calls with REMIX teams (Redwood's interpretability sprint) trying to give advice & feedback on projects. As an experiment, I've published a recording of one advising call (with Tessa Barton & Kushal Jain on memorisation i... |
2ba684ee-d828-4441-8b5b-c607b3741e5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Feed
Note: I am trying out a weekly feed.
===Highly Recommended Articles:
Superintelligence Risk Project: Conclusion by Jeff Kaufman - "I'm not convinced that AI risk should be highly prioritized, but I'm also not convinced that it shouldn't. Highly qualified researchers in a position to have a good sense ... |
f9bd05ad-27d4-4247-91e8-68a6e13f79fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Small Data’s Big AI Potential
September 2021
Small Data’s Big AI Potential
CSET Issue Brief
AUTHORS Husanjot Chahal Helen Toner Ilya Rahkovsky
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 1 Executive Summary This issue brief provides an introduction to and overview of “small data” artificial intelligence approa... |
093c248f-6af7-456d-aa7c-3a883e1194c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Many of Me Are There?
This post is not about many worlds. It is somewhat disjointed, but builds to a single point.
If an AI was asked today how many human individuals populate this planet, it may not return a number the several-billions range. In fact I’d be willing to bet it’d return a number in the tens of thou... |
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