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2e33d234-91ef-42ed-957c-a7390132e9c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What's General-Purpose Search, And Why Might We Expect To See It In Trained ML Systems?
[Benito](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/benito) has an interesting job. Here’s some of the stuff he’s had to do over the past couple years:
* build a prototype of an office
* resolve neighbor complaints at a party
* find housing ... |
f78e4a16-3957-4bf7-af53-0724bb46fc0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Standard and Nonstandard Numbers
Followup to: Logical Pinpointing
"Oh! Hello. Back again?"
Yes, I've got another question. Earlier you said that you had to use second-order logic to define the numbers. But I'm pretty sure I've heard about something called 'first-order Peano arithmetic' which is also supposed to defi... |
10a3e744-8da6-4d0f-a98e-de0561487b02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on January 15th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Baltimore Area: Epistemology of Disagreement: 24 January 2016 03:00PM
* Palo Alto Meetup: Introduction to Causal Inference: 19 January 2016 06:... |
00a3a504-52a0-400f-b273-e863781bb55a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult
Today's post, Every Cause Wants To Be A Cult was originally published on 12 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Simply having a good idea at the center of a group of people is not enough to prevent that group from becoming a cult. As long as the idea's ad... |
ad046ee1-9089-41aa-8d97-e842d1b83f47 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Carnegie Council MisUnderstands Longtermism
I came across this article from the Carnegie Council's Artificial Intelligence and Equality Initiative and I can't help but feel like they misunderstand longtermism and EA. The article mentions the popularity of William Macaskill's new book "What We Owe the Future" and the c... |
87cef544-9656-4397-a15b-23dc1cc97ed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Los Angeles Rationality!
Hi everybody!
If you're reading this post, you're probably interested in attending the meetup. While we have a weekly topic, it's more of a "we'll get to it when we get to it" thing rather than a rigid structure; that said we almost always have a brief discussion on it at some poin... |
4251b5f6-fcaa-4e55-ab38-1e9209f7df1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bridging the VLM and mech interp communities for multimodal interpretability
Cross-posted here.
A note to the LW community
I wrote this post after spending my summer in the MATS community looking at sparse autoencoders on vision models, and then joining FAIR/Meta as a visiting researcher on their video generation t... |
f33c8e85-516a-49ec-b122-f9db6bf2972e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where are we?
I'm enjoying lesswrong.com a lot so far, and it sounds like the last LW/OB meetup was a lot of fun. MBlume asks:
> So far there've only been LW/OB meetups in the Bay area -- is there any way we could plot the geographic distribution of LW members and determine whether there are other spots where we coul... |
66f0aa49-322c-4a69-9fe5-300dba43e3b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost]Transformer-Based LM Surprisal Predicts Human Reading Times Best with About Two Billion Training Tokens
From the abstract:
> Recent psycholinguistic studies have drawn conflicting conclusions about the relationship between the quality of a language model and the ability of its surprisal estimates to predict... |
03ecb5ef-f52a-40a0-8739-e942fb751cb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Visualizing in 5 dimensions
Here's a tool for visualizing some 5 dimensional things. Poetically, the idea is to fold multiple "time dimensions" into the one actual time dimension using a sort of lexicographic ordering. More literally, we play a short 3d movie (each instant is a 3d scene) over and over, varying somethi... |
6b34717c-71c7-4291-8db0-6c7785688ce7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In the shadow of the Great War
The idea of progress fell out of favor in the course of the 20th century. But when exactly, and why?
In a recent essay I alluded to the pivotal role of the World Wars. Here’s a quote that adds weight to this—from Progress and Power, by historian Carl Becker, published in 1936:
> For tw... |
fda703dc-71d8-41c6-bb0e-476e9cfb05ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Half-baked AI Safety ideas thread
[Cross-posted from the EA Forum. The EA Forum version of this post is for both half-baked EA ideas and half-baked AI Safety ideas, whereas this version of the post is for half-baked AI Safety ideas specifically.]
I keep having ideas related to AI safety, but I keep not having enough ... |
a08b1cea-05ae-4516-9ae4-caac489b86df | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Three thoughts.1. The new LessWrong 2.0, at least for me personally, has been really marvelous. I've greatly enjoyed some of the discussions on mindfulness, pragmatic achieving type-stuff, definitions and clarifications and naming of broad concepts, and explorations of technology and artificial intelligence. Kaj Sotal... |
4a119043-c876-44fa-8e57-6722386089a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Serial reproduction reveals the geometry of
visuospatial representations.
PSYCHOLOGICAL AND
COGNITIVE SCIENCESSerial reproduction reveals the geometry of
visuospatial representations
Thomas A. Langloisa,b,c,1
, Nori Jacobyc,d,1
, Jordan W. Suchowe
, and Thomas L. Griffithsb,2
aDepartment of Psychology, University of Ca... |
6162e29d-4561-4260-96db-669fca62fd1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are objects that have made your life better?
If I wanted to buy things to make my life better, what objects would I buy? What objects do you own that spark joy every time you use them?
I'm looking for statements like "X are the best wireless, noise-canceling headphones" or "Y is the best shirt" with appropriate ... |
cb0ff044-61c7-4c20-8ddf-8d1dc78f1668 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What can we learn from Lex Fridman’s interview with Sam Altman?
These are my personal thougths about this interview.
Epistemic status: I neither consider myself a machine-learning expert, nor am I an alignment expert. My focus is on outreach: explaining AI safety to the general public and professionals outside of th... |
228e16da-9ba5-439e-b3e1-c916219d4a1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MAKE IT BETTER (a poetic demonstration of the banality of GPT-3)
Source
==========================================================================================================================================================================================
You who walk on land and think with head
I laugh at you!
I... |
4a33ecda-9cc1-4581-84ce-f3f6b93e54df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Here's a List of Some of My Ideas for Blog Posts
I will never run out of ideas for blog posts because blogging generates ideas faster than I can blog. The number of ideas for blog posts I have massively outnumbers the number of blog posts I have written. To illustrate my point, here are some of the ideas I have for bl... |
26669afd-7c64-4091-8120-6a95a18809ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing Epoch's newly expanded Parameters, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning database
The performance of machine learning models is closely related to their amount of training data, compu... |
92aa857b-eb2d-4b39-a758-46a4f89ba168 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Why the empirical results of the Traveller’s Dilemma deviate strongly away from the Nash Equilibrium and seems to be close to the social optimum?
Epistemic status: I think I'm over complicating the matter.
In the Traveller’s Dilemma (call it TD below for short), theoretically the only Nash Equilibrium is to have b... |
cfa1c4d0-6035-47b7-b38f-9536c3e9a0c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More Dakka for Coronavirus: We need immediate human trials of many vaccine-candidates and simultaneous manufacturing of all of them
Our best chance to fight CV is to create a vaccine as soon as possible. The irony is that we probably already have a vaccine but we can’t prove that it works, until animal safety test, 1 ... |
947d0790-28c8-45f6-87e7-f2ed4022a05e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #168]: Four technical topics for which Open Phil is soliciting grant proposals
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ev... |
f6a4dfc3-5d52-4452-8e42-0bb9de3dbbe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We need a universal definition of 'agency' and related words
And by "we" I mean "I". I'm the one struggling.
Agency with a 'y', basically means “The condition of being in action; operation.” Or the means or mode of acting, the context I hear it used most often is sociologically:
> "Agency is the capacity of individu... |
29c3c32e-5112-4a0a-9a2a-00ec79c4baad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The physiology of fun?
Ferrets and styrofoam peanuts.
Some animal species play when young and pretty drop it as adults. Some continue well past maturity. I assume there's a physical basis, but I have no idea what it might be. Thoughts? |
ca6773f6-b6b0-4b88-afd7-bd957de3a3b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taking the awkwardness out of a Prenup - A Game Theoretic solution
I would strongly advise you to look at the short review on Thomas Schelling's Strategy of Conflict posted on Less Wrong some time back. The idea that deliberately constraining one's own choices can actually leave a person better off in a negotiation is... |
4bc73138-8752-4eae-b984-cc87587bd055 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On scalable oversight with weak LLMs judging strong LLMs
Abstract
Scalable oversight protocols aim to enable humans to accurately supervise superhuman AI. In this paper we study debate, where two AI's compete to convince a human judge; consultancy, where a single AI tries to convince a human judge that asks questions;... |
3527eb18-1e81-4a73-b1ae-5a625ffaf38d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bruce Wayne and the Cost of Inaction
My brother (DivineMango) and I (TurnTrout) wrote this first arc of a Batman fanfiction in the summer of 2020.
1: Don't Look Away
“The man’s starving. That doesn’t change if you look away, Bruce.”
Hand wrapped firmly around his son’s shoulder, Thomas Wayne directed his son’s fli... |
bac9f12f-94f0-44a6-8ee0-4eb17cf0f909 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Efficient Market Frontier
Recently I gave a talk on EMH: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3TiEZzw4ikneLGp4J/dissolving-the-is-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-dead
In there I had a bonus slide about what I call "Efficient Market Frontier" (EMF). In this post I want to expand on EMF, since I feel like a lot of disagreem... |
bfb34d7f-4e47-41ba-a0ba-7873bf77b4f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Timelines via Cumulative Optimization Power: Less Long, More Short
TLDR: We can best predict the future by using simple models which best postdict the past (ala Bayes/Solomonoff). A simple model based on net training compute postdicts the relative performance of successful biological and artificial neural networks.... |
bc4d323a-8328-4af5-816c-6897f0fdb44f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding and controlling auto-induced distributional shift
This post was written under Evan Hubinger’s direct guidance and mentorship, as a part of the Stanford Existential Risks Initiative ML Alignment Theory Scholars (MATS) program.
TL;DR: The input distribution of a supervised machine learning system is mo... |
8da79157-4620-4f0a-9e26-4ac8a62fa516 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SmartPoop 1.0: An AI Safety Science-Fiction
I have just released a science-fiction novel called SmartPoop, which is freely available on github, in epub and in pdf, and can be purchased on Amazon. The book is co-written with a medical doctor friend. Here's the pitch:
> SmartPoop 1.0 aims to be a very realist science f... |
2f8e4246-fcd7-43a3-a3a6-66aea8ec469d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW wiki spam filtering
Long-time readers may have noticed that spam on the wiki has been a very persistent problem for the past 2 years or so; I've been dealing with it so far by hand, but I recently reached a breaking point and asked Trike to resolve it or find a new wiki administrator. (Speaking of which, is anyone ... |
dd342eb2-05b5-4ed3-bcae-611bbba74743 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Contribute by facilitating the AGI Safety Fundamentals Programme
**The January-March 2022 iteration of Cambridge EA's AGI Safety Fundamentals programme is offering £800 compensation for facilitators knowledgeable in technical AI alignment and/or AI governance! Apply to facilitate** [**here**](https://airtable.com/shr0... |
d86af7d4-f54c-4f80-aa64-59a946260bb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #9: August 2023
What a month. So much to cover.
What this post does not cover beyond this introduction is the biggest news story of the month, a potential room temperature superconductor.
If this discovery is real, it could be transformative. Think of the potential. We could be so back. Chances are t... |
de3cd4bc-2908-4d09-bd8c-99f08fa7c38d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To what extent have ideas and scientific discoveries gotten harder to find?
This post was funded by a grant from Ben Pace.
----------------------------------------
Ben Pace asks:
> To what extent have ideas and scientific discoveries gotten harder to find?
>
> Related: Why are there no gentlemen scientists any mor... |
eba05207-f035-4241-b03d-b773d1e022bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An introduction to Newcomblike problems
This is crossposted from my new blog, following up on my previous post. It introduces the original "Newcomb's problem" and discusses the motivation behind twoboxing and the reasons why CDT fails. content is probably review for most LessWrongers, later posts in the sequence may b... |
1240e88b-b880-4100-85d9-e5efe73aa11a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where do selfish values come from?
Human values seem to be at least partly selfish. While it would probably be a bad idea to build AIs that are selfish, ideas from AI design can perhaps shed some light on the nature of selfishness, which we need to understand if we are to understand human values. (How does selfishness... |
4733b1dd-43ac-4034-b629-69af6536593a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Exploratory Not Explanatory: Counterfactual Analysis of Saliency Maps for Deep Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Saliency map methods are a popular visualization technique that produce heatmap-like output highlighting the importance of different regions of some visual input. They are frequently ... |
4c43c082-cad1-4d99-b4d1-5dae464a550c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critiquing Gary Taubes, Final: The Truth About Diets and Weight Loss
Previously: Mainstream Nutrition Science on Obesity, Atkins Redux, Did the US Government Give Us Absurd Advice About Sugar?, What Causes Obesity?
If you've been wondering what these posts are doing on LessWrong and you haven't read this comment yet,... |
2a1f71f8-69a3-4be3-965b-909e9367a0b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Tapping Out
I.
It has been said that rationality is akin to a martial art. Very well. If we're going to borrow from martial arts, let us borrow properly.
There is a technique known in some parts of the rationalist community called "Tapping Out." Tapping out in this context means you would like to exit an argument ... |
f595efed-b00a-4fb9-a357-e5a7398c0f85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request to AGI organizations: Share your views on pausing AI progress
A few observations from the last few weeks:
* On March 22, FLI published an open letter calling for a six-month moratorium on frontier AI progress.
* On March 29, Eliezer Yudkowsky published a piece in TIME calling for an indefinite moratorium.
... |
2e88bd2c-0538-44c0-b408-87ffc1410499 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist Town Hall: Pandemic Edition
On Sunday 1st November at 12 pm PT, Divia Eden, Anna Salamon, Zvi Mowshowitz, Oliver Habryka and I (Ben Pace) are hosting a Town Hall at this Zoom link, for rationalists to share models of the ongoing pandemic and how we’re responding to it.
Topic of the Town Hall
We’re 8 mont... |
e75e39b6-324e-4f3d-bcfe-f79d118bc596 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I Think Abrupt AI Takeoff
(note: Quickly written. I've attempted to number my arguments "formally", but I have no training in this format. Edits/suggestions welcome.)
1. Ability to generalize is "lumpy": unpredictable -- sometimes lots of inputs lead to little progress, sometimes small inputs lead to lots of pro... |
f676cd32-cf4c-4a08-9a0c-844bba2731db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Even if human & AI alignment are just as easy, we are screwed
I get the sense that something like Eliezer's concept of "deep security" as opposed to "ordinary paranoia" is starting to seep into mainstream consciousness—not as quickly or as thoroughly as we'd like, to be sure. But more people are starting to understan... |
169d45d8-b655-41e4-9d4f-e23f559f71bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memories of the Neutral Zone
Mid-Career Reflections on Quant Finance
I worked 2017-2024 at Two Sigma1, a systematic hedge fund. I loved working there, and was sad to leave.
2020-2024 my team and I founded and scaled the industry’s first (afaik) “systematic buy-side”2 alpha capture business.
I’m now on non-compete le... |
dca1341a-680d-413f-8323-1856508f0c05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On power and its amplification
In the beginning of the universe, everything was equal.
Then it exploded. Quantum inequalities became galactic. Stars coalesced, and beamed energy into the voids left behind.
Between one hot young star and the void was a planet we now call Earth. On Earth, energy gradients drove chemic... |
0b80de24-621b-403c-a479-c16f129c8404 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why we're not founding a human-data-for-alignment org
TL;DR
=====
**One-paragraph summary:**we (two recent graduates) spent about half of the summer exploring the idea of starting an organisation producing custom human-generated datasets for AI alignment research. Most of our time was spent on customer interviews wit... |
c805a479-889f-4352-9edf-27752e8572c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reframing Impact
Technical Appendix: First safeguard?
This sequence is written to be broadly accessible, although perhaps its focus on capable AI systems assumes familiarity with basic arguments for the importance of AI alignment. The technical appendices are an exception, targeting the technically inclined.
Why do I... |
c48880bb-5f21-4261-9369-6c7bf00408ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sustained Strong Recursion
Followup to: Cascades, Cycles, Insight, Recursion, Magic
We seem to have a sticking point at the concept of "recursion", so I'll zoom in.
You have a friend who, even though he makes plenty of money, just spends all that money every month. You try to persuade your friend to invest a littl... |
5d56b4df-e77b-4d4b-88fb-efb343759e2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Approaches for collecting and analyzing data about yourself?
As step one in actually improving my life, I am embarking on a massive expedition for data, both about myself (e.g. triggers for moods, when I feel the most focused) and about the effects of certain interventions (e.g. meditation, taking short naps). However... |
9bd50377-9c23-434b-8bc4-0f28f9ff5f38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would you advise a peer-supported virtues-oriented self-help group?
The "virtues" are the classical name for those habitual characteristics of acting and thinking that tend toward a flourishing, beneficial life. An influential theory of virtues holds that they are much like many other human skills in that you can ... |
0e70fbd9-1fc7-4b07-8a2b-4190d12a2172 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Demonstrating MWI by interfering human simulations
TLDR: A demonstration that, given some reasonable assumptions, a quantum superposition of a brain creates an exponential number of independent consciousnesses, and each independent consciousness experiences reality as classical.
The demonstration
I'm not going to ex... |
2b86a2ae-71e9-41bb-8086-f2553203790f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 191. Pessimism about Unknown Unknowns inspires Conservatism
welcome to the AI safety reading group
this is session number 191 and today
we're reading pessimism about unknown
unknowns inspires conservatism by
Michael Cohen and Marcus hotter so
quickly we'll just go over the 2x2
matrix which will define what the paper
i... |
d39c07ec-f6f2-4b70-bfd2-3e73128ed577 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "agent foundations"?
Some things in the world behave like “[agents](/?state=5632&question=What%20is%20an%20agent%3F)”: their actions can be understood as directed toward achieving particular goals.
[Agent foundations](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/FWvzwCDRgcjb9sigb/why-agent-foundations-an-overly-abstr... |
484f2e1f-6592-4c5e-9ec3-027a80024864 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI alignment prize winners and next round [link]
From [Announcement: AI alignment prize winners and next round](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/4WbNGQMvuFtY3So7s/announcement-ai-alignment-prize-winners-and-next-round):
>
> We (Zvi Mowshowitz, Vladimir Slepnev and Paul Christiano) are happy to announce that the ... |
3d1886cb-7929-4854-8b5d-d6153d7f07b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Topological Fixed Point Exercises
This is one of three sets of fixed point exercises. The first post in this sequence is here, giving context.
1. (1-D Sperner's lemma) Consider a path built out of n edges as shown. Color each vertex blue or green such that the leftmost vertex is blue and the rightmost vertex is green... |
62fd0fe3-9c06-4ba0-be60-ea692704b23c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #31
Highlights
Introducing the AI Alignment Forum (FAQ) (habryka): The Alignment Forum has officially launched! It aims to be the single online hub for researchers to have conversations about all the ideas in the field, while also helping new researchers get up to speed. While posting is restrict... |
e6d4475c-7c23-426a-b94c-893b65627177 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Example of neurons usefully communicating without synapses found in flies [LINK]
Or, yet another obstacle to WBE.
http://www.the-scientist.com/?articles.view/articleNo/33350/title/Neurons-Talk-Without-Synapses/
OK, apparently ephaptic coupling is old news, but this seems to be the first example where we can say just... |
e28388e4-1340-4e95-81a6-e3e91cc52bcf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolution and the Low Road to Nash
Solution concepts in game theory—like the Nash equilibrium and its refinements—are used in two key ways. Normatively, they proscribe how rational agents ought to behave. Descriptively, they propose how agents actually behave when interactions settle into equilibrium. The Nash equilib... |
b330556a-f754-492e-8362-3fb4d3df9daf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Fence? Major in CS
I talk to many ABDs in math, physics, engineering, economics, and various other technical fields.
I work with exceptional people from all those backgrounds.
I would like to unreservedly say to any collegians out there, whether choosing an undergrad major or considering fields of study for g... |
ea15f18d-80ae-4903-b434-7e19008b89e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A note on the description complexity of physical theories
Followup to: The prior of a hypothesis does not depend on its complexity
Eliezer wrote:
> In physics, you can get absolutely clear-cut issues. Not in the sense that the issues are trivial to explain. [...] But when I say "macroscopic decoherence is simpler t... |
ad511902-077f-4a63-8549-3c6497d54ca6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Bias-reduced Multi-step Hindsight Experience Replay for Efficient Multi-goal Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved great success in a wide range of decision-making tasks, including Atari games (Mnih et al., [2015](#bib.bib12)), planning (Kim and Park, [2009](... |
0b243bf5-c3fa-4e08-ac22-dcd3c879b6a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] My Best and Worst Mistake
Today's post, My Best and Worst Mistake was originally published on 16 September 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When Eliezer went into his death spiral around intelligence, he would up making a lot of mistakes that later became very useful.
Discuss the post here... |
3d8a6706-9669-4824-abcf-8dd0470d7929 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Online Bayesian Goal Inference for Boundedly-Rational Planning Agents
1 Introduction
---------------
Everyday experience tells us that it is impossible to plan ahead for everything. Yet, not only do humans still manage to achieve our goals by piecing together partial and approximate plans, we also appear to account... |
b1733f0a-c992-4191-9d67-0e85f195b27c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tradeoff between desirable properties for baseline choices in impact measures
(Cross-posted to personal blog. Summarized in Alignment Newsletter #108. Thanks to Carroll Wainwright, Stuart Armstrong, Rohin Shah and Alex Turner for helpful feedback on this post.)
Impact measures are auxiliary rewards for low impact on ... |
9b6efb4a-e985-44d8-8b0a-a5817912756d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Public Policy and Superintelligent AI: A Vector Field Approach
Public Policy and Superintelligent AI: A Vector Field
Approach1
(2018) version 4.3 (first version: 2016).
Nick Bostrom†, Allan Dafoe†, Carrick Flynn†
[in Liao, S. M. (ed.):
Ethics of Artificial Intelligence
(Oxford University Press, 2020)]
[www.... |
7622c911-0955-4e59-97d9-8643f04fd551 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to estimate my probability of getting a (competitive) job in Academia
Motivation
I am a PhD in comparative politics at a top 20 US school. I enjoy research and teaching, and would stay in academia with a good offer. However, my university is in DC so my career-changing options are strong. I don't love research eno... |
a28bea93-2e8c-4b6c-92dd-30811bf04187 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI is the model
> A Friendly AI is not a selfish AI constrained by a special extra conscience module that overrides the AI's natural impulses and tells it what to do. You just build the conscience, and that is the AI.
Eliezer Yudkowsky, Ghosts in the Machine
When I started thinking about value learning, I thou... |
0c0ea3c0-bb3b-48c0-91cb-77125c7e6e70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Litany Missing from the Canon
I wish to take whatever action will best bring about what I value.
I wish to become whatever person will most manifest what I value.
There is no virtue in clinging to yesterday’s expectations,
and no vice in hunting what matters.
I can make the best possible choice - and I can do noth... |
0fc61184-d830-48b7-b49f-8a06584de138 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Regular Moscow meetup: Löb's theorem, ways of mind improvement, DEL group, Zendo
Discussion article for the meetup : Regular Moscow meetup: Löb's theorem, ways of mind improvement, DEL group, Zendo
WHEN: 19 July 2015 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, Льва Толстого, 16
We're meeting at Yandex, at the Extrop... |
2ad87d03-1e49-421b-92c5-730026cd44ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is There Really a Child Penalty in the Long Run?
A couple of weeks ago three European economists published this paper studying the female income penalty after childbirth. The surprising headline result: there is no penalty.
Setting and Methodology
The paper uses Danish data that tracks IVF treatments as well as a bu... |
f58a0605-e5c2-4563-8c35-86093c3c3961 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Synergies vs. Tradeoffs Between Near-term and Long-term AI Safety Efforts
[Music]
this will be a session on the trade-offs
between traders and synergies between
the short-term and long-term safety
problems so there's a lot of different
ways to talk about the trade-offs and
synergies between the long term and
short ter... |
0952fa9d-045d-4f75-8602-e7f31c4537b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Bad Guy Bias
Today's post, The Bad Guy Bias was originally published on December 9, 2008. A summary:
> Humans have a tendency to perceive tragedies caused by agents as worse than tragedies caused by other sources. This can cause us to, among other things, worry more about future catastrophes as a r... |
352cf8a1-8aab-40de-bacd-28e1d0c1e371 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Penn State University: NEW Meetup starting!
Discussion article for the meetup : Penn State University: NEW Meetup starting!
WHEN: 22 October 2011 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Panera bread: 148 South Allen Street State College, PA 16801
I'll be hosting a meetup at the Panera Bread meeting room on Oct. 22nd in ... |
9a07d744-85f9-43be-9c23-8a20902008ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | Open Questions about Generative Adversarial Networks
By some metrics, research on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) has progressed substantially in the past 2 years.
Practical improvements to image synthesis models are being made almost too quickly to keep up with:
Odena et al.... |
89c436b9-e081-4353-9486-9062bdc4831e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Test Post
|
c6091c1e-67e1-494b-8c7c-f328d62612c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflective Control
You've had those moments -- the ones where you're very aware of where you're at in the world, and you're mapping out your future and plans very smartly, and you're feeling great about taking action and pushing important things forwards.
I used to find myself only reaching that place, at random, onc... |
25bcb669-5c56-4567-9b1b-fb0e46692cc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Car Seats Three Across
When I posted about how we were thinking of getting a car, and specifically that we were thinking of having three kids in car seats across the back of a hatchback, several people told me they wouldn't fit. This is a common enough view that there's an econ paper about it: Car Seats as Contracepti... |
d0f05166-f09a-422b-b60e-41976bed0f0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tort Law Can Play an Important Role in Mitigating AI Risk
Epistemic status: This is a summary of an 80-page law review article that took me ~6 months to research and write. I am highly confident about my characterization of existing U.S. tort law and its limits. This characterization is only contested by other legal s... |
40b97458-6b88-4de6-a67a-f03d8dffb0ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dissolving Scotsmen
[Epistemic status: I don't expect this to break new ground not already in core reading (such as Eliezer Yudkowsky's A Human's Guide to Words or Scott Alexander's Categorisation and Concepts), but I am writing this as a pointer for future reference]
[Trigger warning: analogical discussion of rape, ... |
c18568df-5a77-496e-9165-ac20ab75828b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ought will host a factored cognition “Lab Meeting”
Ought will host a factored cognition “Lab Meeting” on Friday September 16 from 9:30AM - 10:30AM PT.
We'll share the progress we've made using language models to decompose reasoning tasks into subtasks that are easier to perform and evaluate. This is part of our work... |
4161501f-068b-4d4f-9642-dcdeea64441f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Frankfurt meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Frankfurt meetup
WHEN: 17 April 2014 05:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Frankfurt, Ginnheimer Landstraße
Our next meetup, right before Easter! As usual, contact me under 0049 176 34 095 760. We also have a mailing list you're welcome to join: https://groups.googl... |
458798b6-75ee-45ba-9d66-32452aa15828 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spectral radii dimensionality reduction computed without gradient calculations
In this post, I shall describe a fitness function that can be locally maximized without gradient computations. This fitness function is my own. I initially developed this fitness function in order to evaluate block ciphers for cryptocurrenc... |
688ea1ce-5a4b-48eb-9c39-e9e2f7916aad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayes' rule =/= Bayesian inference
Related to: Bayes' Theorem Illustrated, What is Bayesianism?, An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes' Theorem
(Bayes' theorem is something Bayesians need to use more often than Frequentists do, but Bayes' theorem itself isn't Bayesian. This post is meant to be a light introduction to the... |
f951aedf-8e07-4f1b-bce6-3eb694789498 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why the Best Writers Endure Isolation
Douglas Adams, author of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, was once locked in a room for three weeks until he completed one of his books.
Victor Hugo, when faced with a deadline for his book The Hunchback of Notre Dame, locked all his clothes away except for a large shawl. “L... |
83a5a833-0c9d-4559-a7f6-d5476d135548 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio Meetup!
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup!
WHEN: 15 November 2015 12:30:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome!
New Meetup to discuss rationality and all things LessWro... |
bbd848ff-c2c1-41c6-a7a4-556e4bd87937 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Cambridge UK, Durham, London, Vienna
This summary was posted to LW main on March 8th. The following week's summary is here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Durham/RTLW HPMoR discussion, ch. 43-46: 09 March 2013 11:30AM
* Vienna Meetup 9th March: 09 March 2013 0... |
8f7188c9-db86-45ec-9f68-30a78ace55e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A LessWrong poster for the Humanity+ conference next Saturday
An email from David Wood, organiser of the Humanity+ UK 2010 conference in London on Saturday 2010-04-24:
> One of the rooms in Conway Hall on Sat 24th April will be set aside for posters and general socialising.
>
> The posters are opportunities for peop... |
350b73a8-dfc0-4fa9-9101-1378576c54ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Belief in Intelligence
Since I am so uncertain of Kasparov's moves, what is the empirical content of my belief that "Kasparov is a highly intelligent chess player"? What real-world experience does my belief tell me to anticipate? Is it a cleverly masked form of total ignorance?
To sharpen the dilemma, suppose Kaspa... |
00c35af4-d488-4817-9a11-51501eb475c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The ‘ petertodd’ phenomenon
Note: Nothing in this post is intended to vilify or defame any actual human named Peter Todd. I recognise that the existence of this phenomenon may be an uncomfortable fact for anyone with that name and do not wish to cause anyone discomfort. However, I feel that this phenomenon cannot be s... |
00bbac2b-d41d-4e86-8ab2-ccdba71c31de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs and computation complexity
Epistemic status: Speculative. I've built many large AI systems in my previous HFT career but have never worked with generative AIs. I am leveling up in LLMs by working things out from base principles and observations. All feedback is very welcome.
Tl;dr: An LLM cannot solve computatio... |
44f8908d-521f-4b35-bec8-6000dd20ff17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Everything I Know About Elite America I Learned From ‘Fresh Prince’ and ‘West Wing’
Rob Henderson is one of a few writers outside of the rationalist community that I follow obsessively, for his consistently high insight-to-length ratio, and his general writing style which appeals to me in some hard to articulate way. ... |
32838b15-c1cb-4074-936a-c0cc18d5c02a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The future of values
Humans of today control everything. They can decide who gets born and what gets built. So you might think that they would basically get to decide the future. Nevertheless, there are some reasons to doubt this. In one way or another, resources threaten to escape our hands and land in the laps of ot... |
10e5fc17-12fb-4d4b-903e-c5f1f67aac96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shard Theory - is it true for humans?
And is it a good model for value learning in AI?
(Read on Substack: https://recursingreflections.substack.com/p/shard-theory-is-it-true-for-humans)
TLDR
Shard theory proposes a view of value formation where experiences lead to the creation of context-based ‘shards’ that dete... |
1dfeec04-f64a-4b6a-9ad9-d88e1615549f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Sets with Small Intersection
Suppose that we want to construct subsets  with the following properties:
1. 
WHERE: Rua Antonio Carlos, 452 São Paulo, Brazil
No novo Vanilla Caffè, novatos são bem-vindos!
Discussion article for the meetup : Meetup Racionalidade São Paulo |
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