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99c7ab0f-8947-4349-9acf-df4dd9010534 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Aligning the Aligners: Ensuring Aligned AI acts for the common good of all mankind
The argument I’m going to make here is obviously not original with me, but I do think that while AI governance is talked about, and one of the career paths that 80,000 hours recommends, it is not sufficiently pointed to as an important ... |
0a557eee-57a9-42a2-b67f-db85a35570c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Whistleblowing Twitter Bot
In this post, I propose an idea that could improve whistleblowing efficiency, thus hopefully improving AI Safety by making unsafe practices discovered marginally faster.
I'm looking for feedback, ideas for improvement, and people interested in making it happen.
It has been proposed before,... |
ba6b3c23-a5bf-495e-913b-d24a486ec072 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | My current thoughts on MIRI's "highly reliable agent design" work
Interpreting this writeup:
--------------------------
I lead the Open Philanthropy Project's work on technical AI safety research. In our MIRI [grant writeup](http://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-art... |
4e17d171-ca8c-40b4-b8da-213a7c4c11d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for opinions of people like Nick Bostrom or Anders Sandberg on current cryo techniques
In June 2012, Robin Hanson wrote a post promoting plastination as a superior to cryopreservation as an approach to preserving people for later uploading. His post included a paragraph which said:
> We don’t actually know th... |
62551584-f7a9-494e-80d7-6c8a8b6351c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The consistent guessing problem is easier than the halting problem
The halting problem is the problem of taking as input a Turing machine M, returning true if it halts, false if it doesn't halt. This is known to be uncomputable. The consistent guessing problem (named by Scott Aaronson) is the problem of taking as inpu... |
4898435d-39c3-4195-8ae9-b259fa1ba1a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Evolutions Building Evolutions: Layers of Generate and Test
*[Epistemic Status: Early layers and the general framework seems firm (and substantially* [*Dennett-inspired*](https://everything2.com/title/Tower+of+generate-and-test)*), later parts are more speculative, but I've found them to be useful thinking tools.]*
... |
323776a4-570b-4b24-b80a-292d0c0ef429 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Current AI Misalignment and Potential Long Term Implications
hello everyone and welcome to the second
and final day of the inaugural stanford
existential risks conference
as mentioned in our earlier email we
highly recommend prioritizing setting up
meetings with other attendees over the
course of the day
our first ses... |
6b98898a-0dfc-4f5a-a409-25a113988cb8 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Human beings are all crazy. And if you tap on our brains just a little, we get so crazy that even other humans notice. Anosognosics are one of my favorite examples of this; people with right-hemisphere damage whose left arms become paralyzed, and who deny that their left arms are paralyzed, coming up with excuses when... |
1577bde1-ca83-4c08-ba35-bafe76559ed4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Progress on Causal Influence Diagrams
*By Tom Everitt, Ryan Carey, Lewis Hammond, James Fox, Eric Langlois, and Shane Legg*
*Crossposted from* [*DeepMind Safety Research*](https://deepmindsafetyresearch.medium.com/progress-on-causal-influence-diagrams-a7a32180b0d1)
About 2 years ago, we released the [first](https://... |
78bae546-a592-4eb9-a45d-f03951232750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | flowing like water; hard like stone
SilverFlame
I noticed in your recent post that you described "rhetorical aikido", which you called a Daoist technique. I have studied the Tao Te Ching's text a fair bit over the past few years, and I find its philosophy to be quite useful as a "theme" or "virtue".
I've not had the ... |
82516689-6928-41c9-92c2-ef4f4243b876 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thou Art Godshatter
Before the 20th century, not a single human being had an explicit concept of "inclusive genetic fitness", the sole and absolute obsession of the blind idiot god. We have no instinctive revulsion of condoms or oral sex. Our brains, those supreme reproductive organs, don't perform a check for reprodu... |
d8df35be-bb88-4502-bcd9-42d9cb548690 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Divination: Nine Black Doves
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
STORY (skippable)
The omens are troubling for we Romans this year! Black doves have been spott... |
52d08061-89a3-4dca-a9ed-f9dfee724756 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Consciousness as a conflationary alliance term
*Tl;dr: In this post, I argue that the concept of 'consciousness' is more conflated than people realize, in that there's a lot of divergence in what people mean by "consciousness", and people are unaware of the degree of divergence. This confusion allows the formation of ... |
a4a54b49-8cb8-4ac3-8f8b-881f969047b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Collaborative Decision Making Using Action Suggestions
|
9a286dee-faae-4c95-adde-ee4a6c59d2bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prisoner's Dilemma vs the Afterlife
I've had a thought I don't recall having encountered before described quite this way; but, given my past experiences with such thoughts, and the fact that it involves evo-psych, I currently peg my confidence in this idea at around 10%. But just in case this particular idea rose to m... |
ee52f77d-c70c-4247-a729-bc79cec8114f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Previous Work on Recreating Neural Network Input from Intermediate Layer Activations
Recently I've been experimenting with recreating a neural network's input layer from intermediate layer activations.
The possibility has implications for interpretability. For example, if certain neurons are activated on certain inpu... |
9d01567e-7e63-48ea-9b45-92e3dbd37fd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Answering questions honestly given world-model mismatches
(This post is superseded by our writeup on Eliciting Latent Knowledge.)
In a recent post I discussed one reason that a naive alignment strategy might go wrong, by learning to “predict what humans would say” rather than “answer honestly.” In this post I want to... |
bd54af73-bb15-4dcf-afed-18eda20a9ec3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Altruism QALY workshop materials & outline (and Jan 13 '19 meetup notes)
What the workshop is & a brief overview
Hi all! This is my first post on LessWrong, but I'll be posting here more often with conversation notes & resources from the Effective Altruism Kansas City meetup group.
This workshop was an expe... |
9b9d9ff1-e365-431f-8925-50b9c076a698 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaknowledge - Improving on the Wisdom of Crowds
|
5046ed45-948c-4d90-8206-f92a853435cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are smart contracts AI-complete?
Many people are probably aware of the hack at DAO, using a bug in their smart contract system to steal millions of dollars worth of the crypto currency Ethereum.
There's various arguments as to whether this theft was technically allowed or not, and what should be done about it, and so... |
bf9dc7de-24b2-486e-a588-cd34299129f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Re-Define Intent Alignment?
I think Evan's [Clarifying Inner Alignment Terminology](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology) is quite clever; more well-optimized than it may at first appear. However, do think there are a couple of things which don't work as well as they... |
691ab722-8f59-4d62-bac1-c81c6ac0d419 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I have previously spoken of the ancient, pulp-era magazine covers that showed a bug-eyed monster carrying off a girl in a torn dress; and about how people think as if sexiness is an inherent property of a sexy entity, without dependence on the admirer.
"Of course the bug-eyed monster will prefer human females to its o... |
e3e5b21b-248b-4a2f-9c93-be8d05772852 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the average ethical review board ethical from an utilitarian standpoint?
Many people argue that Facebook's study of how the emotions of it's users changed depending on the emotional content of messages in their facebook feed wouldn't have been approved by the average ethical review board because facebook didn't se... |
ebb791f8-8556-4300-909d-5cb7e643f978 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Research Considerations for Human Existential Safety (ARCHES)
*Originally published in May 2020, cross-posted by* [*Aaron Gertler*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/aarongertler) *on 9/21/21.*
**Abstract**
------------
Framed in positive terms, this report examines how technical AI research might be stee... |
318c82e7-a0df-42b2-bece-57baca3d0937 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Prague - setting up
Discussion article for the meetup : Prague - setting up
WHEN: 23 March 2015 07:30:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Václavské náměstí 778/14, Praha 110 00
Hello,
this is second long-term planed meetup in Prague.
We are currently in the beginning of creating a core group here hence be prepared for t... |
bf2437f3-993b-47b6-be99-10648255bcab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personals, anyone?
Meet ups are great and all, but a lot of us live far away from the large masses of LW-participants. I live in the Toledo, Ohio area, and I'm also one of those people who are looking for people who I can relate to. Most people I can't relate to, intellectual conversation makes most people I know un... |
442e115f-1bb7-479f-b794-dfbd5bed9b48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timaeus in 2024
> TLDR: We made substantial progress in 2024:
>
> * We published a series of papers that verify key predictions of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].
> * We scaled key SLT-derived techniques to models with billions of parameters, eliminating our main concerns around tractability.
> ... |
be523da6-4484-471e-9d78-c9c3c493bebf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most AI value will come from broad automation, not from R&D
This is a linkpost to an article by Ege Erdil and I that we wrote to explain an important perspective that we share regarding AI automation. I'll quote the introduction:
> A popular view about the future impact of AI on the economy is that it will be primari... |
6c85f522-3f59-4c64-94ca-bd66cc0ab8e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rogue AGI Embodies Valuable Intellectual Property
This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views.
Summary:
* Rogue AGI has access to its embodied IP.
* This IP will be worth a moderate fraction of the total value... |
9aef6378-f7c4-4c10-9310-2949d46d0cf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Multi-Agent Overoptimization, and Embedded Agent World Models
I think this expands on the points being made in the recently completed Garrabrant / Demski Embedded Agency sequence. It also serves to connect a paper I wrote recently that discusses mostly non-AI risks from multiple agents that expands on the work done la... |
e3937a18-e615-445b-abdd-e02d47a49094 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "Loss Function of Reality" Is Not So Spiky and Unpredictable
In other words, there are no "rabbit holes" or "dark tunnels of the mind."
The great success of neural networks is due in large part to the surprising ease in which gradient-based methods are used to train them. Neural networks are often trained using a ... |
67f677e5-196e-4d25-b5e1-6cebc38365c1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Cycle-of-Learning for Autonomous Systems from Human Interaction
Using Humans to Train Autonomous Systems
----------------------------------------
Reinforcement learning (RL) has been successfully applied to solve challenging problems from playing video games to robotics. In simple scenarios, a reward function or mo... |
c1658e37-10dc-4c00-938d-e5703fa0afe7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Promoted Posts and the Metaethics sequence now available in audio
We are proud to announce audio versions of the Less Wrong Promoted Posts and the Metaethics major sequence, both now available via a Castify Podcast.
The Less Wrong Promoted Posts feed will have every new promoted post which has been tagged with th... |
38baf351-39ce-4552-91d0-ea087ff1c020 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactuals on POMDP
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This is technical note explaining how to define counterfactuals on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP).
The POMDP formalism is explained here. This note will just sketch out how counterfactuals are defined; the full details w... |
eccdc58c-4f52-4737-ab07-c0339916305c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Expected number of tries
Epistemic status: An idea I had a few days ago and shared with two or three friends.
Suppose you want to install a new habit. For example, gratitude journaling.
You might try to give it a go, by pledging to write down 3 things you are grateful for every day right before you go to sleep.
Aft... |
61418072-ee37-4df9-9ee5-6234ee28f57b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finding Research Papers
So I'm all geared up and ready to go trawl through some academic journals so I can figure out how to tackle a problem or two, and I've realized I completely forgot how to go about it. Not going to a university with paid subscriptions to JSTOR, etc. doesn't help either. So where exactly does one... |
e8fe8459-4ea1-4e3d-b2fb-ae44d53aab9a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Anders Sandberg - Answering the Fermi Question: Is AI our Great Filter?
hey everyone my name is jeremy welcome
back to the tour of state of science
podcast
and i'm really excited about today's
episode because i get to talk to
anders sandberg now anders is someone
i've been angling to talk to for a
long time because hi... |
089382bc-5500-42f5-a4aa-d5629ed4d9ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolution is sampling error
This is a linkpost for a (somewhat old) post on my blog apomorphic.com. I'm posting this and other old posts here to get feedback and in hopeful preparation for some follow-on work[1].
See also: An addendum on effective population size
A common mistake people make about evolution is to th... |
86202567-2a0e-46fb-b51f-909aec8e6be8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 26 March 2011 Southern California Meetup
We're having another SoCal LessWrong meetup this Saturday, the 26th. It'll be held in the upstairs meeting area at this IHOP in Irvine. It will start at 2PM and probably run until 7 or so.
The format for past meetups has varied based on the number of attendees and their intere... |
544e6049-860e-4ae6-b151-5663ebaf4892 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Löb's Lemma: an easier approach to Löb's Theorem
Related to: [Löb's Theorem for implicit reasoning in natural language: Löbian party invitations](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QsZ3ycfRYs2ps5sNA/loeb-s-theorem-for-implicit-reasoning-in-natural-language)
tl;dr: Löb's Theorem is much easier to grok if you separate the... |
aec923e8-372e-4dc4-82a4-ed311f5b6bc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Raven paradox settled to my satisfaction
The raven paradox, originated by Carl Gustav Hempel, is an apparent absurdity of inductive reasoning. Consider the hypothesis:
H1: All ravens are black.
Inductively, one might expect that seeing many black ravens and no non-black ones is evidence for this hypothesis. As you s... |
3c6982ce-88c4-4f1b-a0ac-b9c13313cf77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The most important meta-skill
Note: This article underwent a significant revision on 5/28/2015. Thank you to estimator for all your feedback.
The most important meta-skill that anyone can learn is how to learn skills. With practice, you learn how to pick up new skills as they are needed, which is infinitely (quite... |
42469092-43e5-48aa-b2e7-31594674c002 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Walking Sue
An Essay[1]
PART I: Conjecture on The Development of Proto-Communication in Response to Complex Environmental Factors[2]
I was walking with my Sue when I noticed a peculiar aspect of her nature: a dog is a stochastic agent. When you simply let the dog walk, she finds a random path, turning at intervals a... |
1aed2562-5276-404e-9256-c6281003df22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would the creation of aligned AGI look like for us?
I'm having a failure of imagination here, I assume an aligned AGI would upload human minds, preventing them from dying, but beyond that it's not clear to me what would happen. Would we just get wireheaded? Is there a CEV from human values that results in choice ... |
677f8835-1357-4906-8750-bf0cc436cafc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Misc. questions about EfficientZero
Perhaps these can be thought of as homework questions -- when I imagine us successfully making AI go well, I imagine us building expertise such that we can answer these questions quickly and easily. Before I read the answers I'm going to think for 10min or so about each one and post... |
55226c05-16b8-4a7b-9af5-06f4dfdc9523 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Presidents, asteroids, natural categories, and reduced impact
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
EDIT: I feel this post is unclear, and will need to be redone again soon.
This post attempts to use the ideas developed about natural categories in order to get high impact from reduced impact AIs.
Exte... |
face0bbb-0f89-44e5-aded-161acd02eccb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Part E: Overly Convenient Excuses
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading group. ... |
bb9de0dc-4e95-427f-b820-98bd29acac0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism
Today's post, Third Alternatives for Afterlife-ism was originally published on May 8, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki):
> One source of hope against death is Afterlife-ism. Some say that this justifies it as a Noble Lie. But there are better (because more plausible) ... |
b06f55a7-55ed-4726-971e-4a7b0cf220a0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Apply to the Cavendish Labs Fellowship (by 4/15)
[Cavendish Labs](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xBeqaWEJfWZv8ALWn/announcing-cavendish-labs) is a new research organization in Vermont focused on technical work on existential risks. We'd like to invite you to [apply to our fellowships](https://cavendishlabs.... |
80b7c988-63a7-4b33-9e4b-9e369ef35c5e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Synthesizing the preferred inputs for neurons in neural networks via deep generator networks
1 Introduction and Related Work
--------------------------------
Understanding how the human brain works has been a long-standing quest in human history. Neuroscientists have discovered neurons in human brains that selectiv... |
35807a03-cc92-4056-b81a-1b4fd35e92da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is ruthlessness in business executives ever useful?
We have a tradition of treating ruthlessness in businesspeople as something of a virtue. Certainly, ruthlessness can help one get ahead in the business world, and companies often benefit from executives who're willing to put aside scruples while devising means of tur... |
44786481-d309-4aee-8ccc-c0a735ddf243 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 4 Common Prediction Failures and How to Fix Them [LINK]
A post I wrote on CFAR's blog about the errors we make in hedonic prospecting, based on Gilbert and Wilson's 2007 review article of the topic. Let me know what you think! Reposting from the discussion in case anyone missed it. :)
Link. |
e4a6bdfe-fd3b-4dff-bff2-4c9e7bdc7ba8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | West LA Weekly Meetups: Wednesday, June 8th
ETA: Meetups are now every other Tuesday.
When: 7pm - 9pm, Wednesday, June 8th.
Where: The Westside Pavillion - on the bridge, which connects Nordstrom 3rd floor with Barnes & Noble / Landmark Theatres 3rd floor.
Parking is free for 3 hours.
Whether you're a regular re... |
19d46868-ebad-4ee9-b35e-11ae6a56c274 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Autonomous Agents Modelling Other Agents: A Comprehensive Survey and Open Problems
1 Introduction
---------------
A core area of research in modern artificial intelligence (AI) is the development of autonomous agents that can interact effectively with other agents. An important aspect of such agents is the ability ... |
1c0bb03d-00ce-4337-9319-1cbe2ac0ae6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shouldn't there be a Chinese translation of Human Compatible?
Considering that China seems pretty serious about investing heavily in AI in the near future, it may be kind of important that Stuart Russel's work of AI alignment advocacy Human Compatible is made as accessible as possible to a Chinese audience, but there ... |
7a815881-4a15-460d-a33c-e2f06e97c1b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Acausal trade: being unusual
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; di... |
9b1ced94-c1a2-4152-a0ab-064b41f126ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | August 2017 Newsletter
| |
| --- |
|
**Research updates**
* “[A Formal Approach to the Problem of Logical Non-Omniscience](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.08747v1)”: We presented our work on [logical induction](https://intelligence.org/2016/09/12/new-paper-logical-induction/) at the [16th Conference on Theoretical Aspec... |
e2d12211-6a17-467e-8ab1-bb351511d24a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group Rationality Diary, June 1-30
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for June 1-30; it's going up pretty late (sorry!) but entries for earlier in June are welcome.
> It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
>
> * Established a useful new h... |
97506e5b-a9c6-4822-a0ea-b3702e9fce45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LDL 7: I wish I had a map
When I was an undergraduate considering going to graduate school in mathematics, one thing that I knew a reasonably amount about and spent a good amount of time thinking about was what the field of math looked like overall.
In very, very broad strokes I knew that geometry, algebra, and analy... |
39cb8167-3854-4848-8178-7b9aa2b3f86a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Creating a “Conscience Calculator” to Guard-Rail an AGI
[Crossposted to the EA Forum here.]
TL;DR: I present initial work towards creating a “conscience calculator” that could be used to guard-rail an AGI to make decisions in pursuing its goal(s) as if it had a human-like conscience. A list of possible conscience bre... |
c09f351d-1b0f-416c-9688-e30c432534e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion
Müller, Vincent C. and Bostrom, Nick (forthcoming 2014), ‘Future progress in artifi-cial intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion, in Vincent C. Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Synthese Library; Berlin: Springer). Futur... |
f6abd9b1-827f-4d9e-9cb1-bdff038208d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR, responsibility and bureaucracy
Status: I wrote the draft for this article a few months before the more recent discussions. While I'm not sure that I get everything right, I believe that simply publishing my post is better then to keep it in my drawer.
Introduction
CFAR was founded in the spirit of being a plac... |
2995c745-1182-4144-8e68-4c7be00e4cdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "best" mathematically-informed topics?
Recently, I asked LessWrong about the important math of rationality. I found the responses extremely helpful, but thinking about it, I think there’s a better approach.
I come from a new-age-y background. As such, I hear a lot about “quantum physics.”
Accordingly, I have ... |
d0784836-980e-47a0-a3c6-feb62fcf6b19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dialogue on the Claim: "OpenAI's Firing of Sam Altman (And Shortly-Subsequent Events) On Net Reduced Existential Risk From AGI"
johnswentworth
I've seen/heard a bunch of people in the LW-o-sphere saying that the OpenAI corporate drama this past weekend was clearly bad. And I'm not really sure why people think that? To... |
1acd3c05-2556-4c49-a0f5-0d725ba1a4ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How many people are working (directly) on reducing existential risk from AI?
Summary
I've updated my estimate of the number of FTE (full-time equivalent) working (directly) on reducing existential risks from AI from 300 FTE to 400 FTE.
Below I've pasted some slightly edited excepts of the relevant sections of the 80,... |
d081f190-0793-4b15-8d07-126b70484774 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantilizers and Generative Models
Thanks to Evan Hubinger for discussions about quantilizers, and to James Lucassen for discussions about conditioned generative models. Many of these ideas are discussed in Jessica Taylor's Quantilizers: A Safer Alternative to Maximizers for Limited Optimization: this post just expand... |
bc34da6f-b266-4f0d-acce-998999c85b45 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What are the relative speeds of AI capabilities and AI safety?
If you want to solve AI safety before AI capabilities become too great, then it seems that AI safety must have some of the following:
* More researchers
* Better researchers
* Less necessary insights
* Easier necessary insights
* Ability to steal insight... |
565acead-0856-4557-9ff7-f5844a24768b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The anti-psychotic Q-learner trick
|
151ce667-e8bd-4101-b141-ec23ccab3ede | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental Rationality 7: Closing Disclaimer
[Instrumental Rationality Sequence 7/7]
[A disclaimer that instrumental rationality as presented in this sequence is incomplete. Your feelings are also important! Pay attention to them.]
After reading through this sequence, you might be feeling very excited to go out an... |
76859a86-3402-4b4d-a099-583914d18e89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Live in a Post-Scarcity Society
Historically, a normal human population hovered on the edge of starvation.
> It's hard to comprehend how important food staples used to be. In Edo Japan, wealth was measured in koku (石). One koku is (in theory) enough rice to feed one man for one year. The amount of koku a daimyo co... |
ab0356ae-de3f-4f75-91f4-4da0dbd93ca8 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(This post was collaboratively written together with Duncan Sabien.) Startup founders stereotypically experience some pretty serious mood swings. One day, their product seems destined to be bigger than Google, and the next, it’s a mess of incoherent, unrealistic nonsense that no one in their right mind would ever pay ... |
f91db69b-76af-4533-a466-95955974ede7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where freedom comes from
We are agents engaging with an environment. Based on the environment we, as agents, act.
Action will be determined by two aspects: magnitude and direction.
Magnitude is the execution, the effort, or the immensity of the action.
Direction is the reasoning, the strategy, or the path you ultim... |
4d43e38e-b2bc-4c6c-a271-a0cd35b85e58 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3936
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . I'm calling "goal completion" the idea of giving an AI a partial goal, and having the AI infer the missing parts of the goal, based on observing human behaviour. Here is an initial model to test some of these ideas on. The linear rocket On an infinite linea... |
80f03d9d-b93a-4690-8b9e-2863240f524f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Diana Spears on the safety of adaptive agents
 [Diana Spears](http://www.swarmotics.com/Contact_Information.html) is an Owner and Research Scientist at [Swarmotics, LLC](http://www.swarmotics.com/Swarmotics.html). Previously, s... |
5106b4f7-11e8-4a13-9137-df957b531a56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK-Cryonics Institute documentary
"WE WILL LIVE AGAIN looks inside the unusual and extraordinary operations of the Cryonics Institute. The film follows Ben Best and Andy Zawacki, the caretakers of 99 deceased human bodies stored at below freezing temperatures in cryopreservation. The Institute and Cryonics Movement ... |
a91ce0c8-8ec9-46a0-a924-cfc7114f77ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Silver Chairs, Paternalism, and Akrasia
Inspired in part by Robin Hanson's excellent article on paternalism a while back, and in response to the various akrasia posts.
In C.S. Lewis's fourth Narnia book, The Silver Chair, the protagonists (two children and a Marsh-wiggle) are faced with a dilemma regarding the title... |
0bb8a7a2-06dc-40f6-93d4-be158f349a3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a way to replicate photosynthesis artificially?
Humans have imitated nature since prehistoric times. Aircraft, submarines and even cars are designed in the image of wild animals. So why haven't we imitated plants yet?
The reason this question is significant is due to the increasing discordance between the e... |
636b6a3d-0c4c-4b0d-b46c-c73b787a1e85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Refusal mechanisms: initial experiments with Llama-2-7b-chat
This work was conducted as part of Berkeley's Supervised Program for Alignment Research (SPAR), under the mentorship of Nina Rimsky.
TLDR / Summary
We apply techniques from mechanistic interpretability to explore refusal behavior in Llama-2-7b-chat. We are... |
5273497d-5143-4999-aeb3-2c118bb506b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions
Scott Alexander has given his verdict on our predictions for Covid from April 2020.
This seems like an excellent opportunity to reflect on those predictions. I’ll also attempt to render my verdict on the predictions, based on the principles I discuss in Evaluating Predicti... |
f82a1fbe-99d8-41ee-bd2e-ed79b4fda611 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Broad Basins and Data Compression
*Produced As Part Of The SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program 2022 Research Sprint Under* [*John Wentworth*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/johnswentworth)
**Intro**
---------
The "broad basins induce data compression" argument goes like this: If we train a neural network to m... |
551afe59-c364-49e9-af91-9b802ac3ca6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Singularity Institute's Arrogance Problem
I intended Leveling Up in Rationality to communicate this:
> Despite worries that extreme rationality isn't that great, I think there's reason to hope that it can be great if some other causal factors are flipped the right way (e.g. mastery over akrasia). Here are some de... |
8bdc9c4c-49f0-48d7-9f1d-980872f4d61f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deciding what to think about; is it worthwhile to have universal utility function?
The hunter-gatherer example in the Is risk aversion really irrational? got me thinking about the real world issues with 'maximizing utility' and any other simple rule approach to decision making.
The elephant in the room is that univer... |
1f323ebe-3629-4fec-8424-5a360d173f52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Please advise the Singularity Institute with your domain-specific expertise!
The Singularity Institute would benefit from having a team of domain-specific advisors on hand. If you'd like to help the Singularity Institute pursue its mission more efficiently, please sign up to be a Singularity Institute advisor!
If you... |
40a430ab-03a7-4621-b68c-a21c1184fa25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Jul. 18 - Jul. 24, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
af95505b-bec5-45e7-b53f-02a1a3942ff6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nature: "Stop talking about tomorrow’s AI doomsday when AI poses risks today"
Overall, a headline that seems counterproductive and needlessly divisive.
I worry very much that coverage like this has the potential to bring political polarization to AI risk and it would be extremely damaging for the prospect of regulati... |
94a130a8-556c-4df3-870f-3880d6250940 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Triangle NC Meetup July 6th
hwc and I have tried submitting this meetup through the new function, but it seems to break the link. Please let us know if anyone knows what's going on.
In any case,
Location:
Caribou Coffee, 1406 E Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC
Date:
2011-07-06, 7:00 PM EDT
(Prop... |
d4f21430-fddb-42f8-a349-5083f2b84134 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | You can't get more paperclips that way
Instrumental convergence says that various properties $P$ of an agent, often scary or detrimental-by-default properties like "trying to gain control of lots of resources" or "deceiving humans into thinking you are nice", will fall out of pursuing most utility functions $U.$ You ... |
0e1beef7-b45e-4a51-98e1-949c85f831eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Honest science is spirituality
[cross-posted from my blog https://pchvykov.com/blog]
I see a problem with current science. It’s not the reproducibility crisis, nor the toxic work culture, nor the misaligned incentive. But in another sense, it is all of these – or perhaps the root cause behind them. It’s hard to name ... |
5dfab9e1-34c8-4290-af29-229733fc749b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inflection.ai is a major AGI lab
Update (April 2024): Due to the recent breakup of Inflection, I no longer think they're on track to be a major AGI lab.
Inflection.ai (co-founded by DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman) should be perceived as a frontier LLM lab of similar magnitude as Meta, OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anth... |
aaf48457-98d4-4342-9357-a3715276b338 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Amiability
This post examines the virtue of amiability (and closely-related virtues like friendliness, geniality, agreeableness, conviviality, affability, niceness, affection, and warmth). I mean to explore what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than to express my own opinions about them, ... |
dcce6ed9-bc5c-4c03-acd8-22af21e3a5ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Possible Worlds after Prediction Take-off
This is the final piece of a blog post series that explores how AI prediction services affect the risks of war. It is based on my 10-week summer research project at Stanford Existential Risk Institute. Here's a summary of my project and my epistemic status.
In previous posts... |
7bd651f4-ba03-46f1-8dc1-1d8a0d4ad022 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zvi's Manifold Markets House Rules
This document was updated August 11, 2024. Broad intent has not changed.
All markets created by Zvi Mowshowitz shall be graded according to the rules described herein, including the zeroth rule.
The version of this on LessWrong shall be the canonical version, even if other versions... |
b3d1f027-dc4c-46ec-a984-5625a885c273 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Highlights From The Comments On Cost Disease
I got many good responses to my Considerations On Cost Disease post, both in the comments and elsewhere. A lot of people thought the explanation was obvious; unfortunately, they all disagreed on what the obvious explanation was. Below are some of the responses I found most ... |
ba800b01-b5ff-4961-ba8e-de5b289f7b51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Jason has been reading, March 2023
A new monthly feature, let me know what you think.
Books
Matt Ridley, How Innovation Works (2020). About halfway through, lots of interesting case studies, very readable.
Vaclav Smil, Creating the Twentieth Century (2005). I read the first chapter; saving the rest of it for w... |
45d24ad0-5979-4726-9405-8b1c4ad1dc3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | General Thoughts on Less Wrong
General disclaimer: Obviously there's always going to be more that could be done and it's better to do a few things well, rather than many things poorly, but I still think it is worth being conscious of areas that could be improved[1].
* I'm still strongly in favor of adding sub-commun... |
5467addf-ed13-4af7-af95-d6b70126b36a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Akrasia hack survey
Survey here. Analysis here. |
1a449105-5bfa-4072-8ac2-a437453969a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A question and a tail
This is a rambling post, and I will appreciate your criticism to help dry it or delete it altogether.
It seems that however little a question I research by reviewing [botanical] literature, there is always a much more complex, and rather difficult to rigorously put, question that I have to ask f... |
6e25fbaf-ea8a-46af-9049-aa6be066675b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress: Fluke or trend?
A foundational conviction of The Roots of Progress is that progress is a trend with definite, substantive causes, and that it can continue far, far into the future. Progress is not automatic or inevitable: it can slow, stop, even reverse. But the history of progress over the last 200+ years c... |
91c701d5-2463-4bc7-b60e-594b9d2f9237 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI Safety Fundamentals 2023 Notes
Hello!
As I am completing my capstone project for AGI Safety Fundamentals 2023, I wanted to link-post my notes for the core readings for the course. I have found it extremely rewarding to summarize key points and point out my topics of confusion in this manner.
I would like to im... |
a80ead47-8a2a-484d-ab9b-c0050b5c722d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Inner Alignment: Explain like I'm 12 Edition
*(This is an unofficial explanation of Inner Alignment based on the Miri paper [Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820) (which is almost identical to the [LW sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN... |
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