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38e53665-f3d6-468e-8f32-d1d99c89ae78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty: The Benford Test
This is the second post in a series on Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty.
All Turing Machines we discuss will have no input, and will output an infinite (or finite) sequence of bits. We let M(n) denote the nth bit output by the Turing machine M.
Let A(n)=n↑nn be the nth ... |
2b70a62e-3649-42fc-91be-102241fd1afb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal-thinking vs desire-thinking
[Adapted from an old post on my personal blog]
There's a lot of long-running arguments on the internet that basically consist of people arguing past each other due to differing basic assumptions that they don't know how to make explicit, preventing them from noticing the fundamental d... |
9a68f4ff-33e9-43cd-a8b4-a74c429bd40d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup: Philadelphia-- Taleb discussion
When: Sunday, October 20, 1 PM
Where: Nam Phuong at 11 St. and Washington St. Nam Phuong is a Vietnamese restaurant notable for good food, low prices, and very little background noise.
Discussion topic: Taleb on how to think about small probabilities.
Meetup discussion group. |
2c908b6a-bcad-4310-81db-171de7b7abe6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Language Learning and the Dark Arts.
I've been wanting to learn Mandarin Chinese for years now and just recently I wrote a small website to help me practise.1 All of the exercises are gap sentences that require you to type the correct answer before you can move on. I chose this kind of exercise because of the convinci... |
e2b891a0-40d7-4691-917b-2f498dafd7b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Uni[MASK]: Unified Inference in Sequential Decision Problems. .
1 Introduction
---------------
Masked language modeling (Devlin et al., [2019](#bib.bib11)) is a key technique in natural language processing (NLP). Under this paradigm, models are trained to predict randomly-masked subsets of tokens in a sequence. For... |
f777f738-90e3-4f42-adc0-05ce3ae9e834 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NYC Rationalist Community
For those who don't yet know, there has been a thriving rationalist community in NYC since April 2009. We've been holding weekly meetups for the past several months now, and often have game nights, focused discussions, etc. For those of you who live in the area, and not yet involved, I high... |
ba701702-b9ee-4c23-8234-0d0b27bf0090 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Incremental Progress and the Valley
Today's post, was originally published on 04 April 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The optimality theorems for probability theory and decision theory, are for perfect probability theory and decision theory. There is no theorem that incremental changes tow... |
f6266bdb-2a75-4a61-9e7c-16955c2cd04c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cassette Tape Thoughts
> “The packaging of intellectual positions and views is one of the most active enterprises of some of the best minds of our day. The viewer of television, the listener to radio, the reader of magazines, is presented with a whole complex of elements-all the way from ingenious rhetoric to carefull... |
579e0b38-9677-4762-8e3f-4b44fdbf0a10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best *organization* red-pill books and posts?
Most books about orgs are written for people in an org who need to cope. (Art of Possibility by the Zanders is a genuinely great one in this genre.) I am currently orgless and don't need to cope with anything orgwise. Hence, I would love to read some brutal insightful take... |
7f977d65-45c6-4805-9a36-cd950424a0cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scoring forecasts from the 2016 “Expert Survey on Progress in AI”
Summary
This document looks at the predictions made by AI experts in The 2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI, analyses the predictions on ‘Narrow tasks’, and gives a Brier score to the median of the experts’ predictions.
My analysis suggests that the... |
1df8c866-5197-4719-b2d7-031c7ba3f850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An accidental experiment in location memory
I bought a plastic mat to put underneath my desk chair, to protect the wooden floor from having bits of stone ground into it by the chair wheels. But it kept sliding when I stepped onto it, nearly sending me stumbling into my large, expensive, and fragile monitor. I decided ... |
726592c5-71fe-421f-a9f5-fcf7279bbde1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amplifying the Computational No-Coincidence Conjecture
Introduction
Recently, the Computational No-Coincidende Conjecture[1] was proposed, presented as an assumption that might be needed to develop methods to explain neural nets in the current approach from the Alignment Research Center. In this post, I will prove tha... |
1c488cf9-0cb5-45b2-9af1-fa4b6e905b17 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | More Recent Progress in the Theory of Neural Networks
*Thanks to Dan Roberts and Sho Yaida for comments on a draft of this post.*
In this post, I would like to draw attention to the book [Principles of Deep Learning Theory](https://deeplearningtheory.com/) (PDLT), which I think represents a significant advance in our... |
d5dee5db-2b1d-4388-9a62-b7d6c8bcef07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a 'time series forecasting' equivalent of AIXI?
In the way that AIXI is an abstracted mathematical formalism for (very roughly) "a program that maximizes the expected total rewards received from the environment", what is the equivalent formalism for an abstracted next token predictor?
Does this exist in the ... |
53d90308-0cc3-4d04-ba1b-170cf6ecb157 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In-depth description of a quite strict, quite successful government program against teen substance abuse, spreading from Iceland
|
bc62fe8b-3537-4e1e-9be6-0d9ef199ef44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review and Summary of 'Moral Uncertainty'
I just read the recently published 'Moral Uncertainty' by Will MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord. It's an excellent book with significant practical implications. As such, I originally intended to write a brief review — which ballooned into this monstrosity. In any case,... |
c9e421d7-e1be-4bab-971e-1af7cc877629 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Small Vacation
(note: I have been thinking about this essay for several months; I did not realize it would turn out to be so timely).
Many people in the rationality community and adjacent corners of the intellectual world are sympathetic to the idea of Open Borders. This concept can be explained easily. People in t... |
868e1ed8-36de-4a95-97b8-0ad9a46d9afe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on Connect Developers
I was working on creating a projects page for my personal website, https://adamzerner.bearblog.dev/. It hit me how many of my projects have been failures, and that I should reflect on them to see what I can learn. Perhaps I'll reflect on other ones in a future blog post, but here I wa... |
5da77f13-c8ec-4ab0-8584-13513fba017b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Greed Stupid?
I just finished reading a fantastic Wait But Why post: How Tesla Will Change The World. One of the things that was noted is that the people in the Auto and Oil industries are trying to delay the introduction of Electric Vehicles (EVs) so they could make more money.
The post also explains how importan... |
f22befd1-5d3e-43fb-9b2f-05adb0d28f6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the ChatGPT-simulated Linux virtual machine real?
Context: Building A Virtual Machine inside ChatGPT
It very much triggers my "roll to disbelieve" reflex, but people seem to be talking about it as if it's real and not that surprising. I'd try it myself, but OpenAI is saying ChatGPT is overloaded (and I don't have ... |
003275ed-2417-426e-958c-ad86d8b17bda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can a layman contribute to AI Alignment efforts, given shorter timeline/doomier scenarios?
Versions of this question have probably been asked before, but MIRI at least is getting more pessimistic and I’ve seen Eliezer express multiple times that he doesn’t know what actually useful advice to give people who aren’t... |
c79b819a-f611-490f-9862-3e6226a87696 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LDL 2: Nonconvex Optimization
Edit 10/23: by request I'm going back and putting the images in. It's a pain that you can't place images in line! Also I edited the dumb probability calculation to make more sense since I may not be able to write another post today.
My favorite “party theorem” is Gauss-Bonnet. It’s the t... |
0d873ff6-ef0c-4ab8-a349-101a9cc7da89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advocating for factual advocacy
In this post I present a Hansonian view of morality, and tease out its consequences for advocacy. Beware, all of this is the result of armchair speculation.
The simplified model goes something like this:
* Human morality is mostly a justification mechanism, trying to give coherence ... |
c690001d-4441-4e5a-b115-c9822fbb45a0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AXRP Episode 7 - Side Effects with Victoria Krakovna
[Google Podcasts link](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9heHJwb2RjYXN0LmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/ZTQ1NjdlMWEtMmQzNC00Y2FlLThlZDMtYzgwZWJmNzRjMWFj)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I ([D... |
4b3a34bb-ceff-448d-8f33-80dd414d84f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prize for Alignment Research Tasks
Can AI systems substantially help with alignment research before transformative AI? People disagree.
Ought is collecting a dataset of alignment research tasks so that we can:
1. Make progress on the disagreement
2. Guide AI research towards helping with alignment
We’re offering ... |
969e58f3-0254-4fa2-a66c-b13e0b3b7d54 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Human Instruction-Following with Deep Reinforcement Learning via Transfer-Learning from Text
1 Introduction
---------------
Developing machines that can follow natural human commands, particularly those pertaining to an environment shared by both machine and human, is a long-standing and elusive goal of AI (Winogra... |
84512601-7a36-4fe2-b2bb-4a6340659cbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repugnant levels of violins
This is a rambling post about the repugnant conclusion, mass-manufacturing, metis and woo, and the fragility of expert discernment — through the lens of my experiences playing, repairing, and selling violins. (And eating discount sushi.)
Epistemic status: Discussing utilitarianism-related ... |
22f8f033-2bff-4592-81b1-de16e480cf43 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is the "control problem"?
The "control problem" is the problem of preventing artificial superintelligence (ASI) from harming humanity. How do we keep a more intelligent being under control, or how do we align it with our values? If we succeed in solving this problem, intelligence vastly superior to ours can take ... |
6d7607f2-14b1-4ea2-8532-a6bcf7e51967 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crosspost: Developing the middle ground on polarized topics
Crossposted from Otherwise
I was once in a group discussion about whether wild animals might be having net negative lives. One person didn’t want to consider that possibility, essentially because “then people would want to kill all the wild animals.”
Hol... |
a6b19513-96a8-4211-a662-8c591c322639 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] SMBC on utilitarianism and vegatarianism.
http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2393#comic |
b7bafa09-24c5-4c55-bf34-8730a5117336 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 1
This article is the script of the video linked above. It differs slightly from the video due to some phrasing changes in the narration [now it's exactly the narration]. Here, I aim to explain the rationale for Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model. In short, humanity... |
2a24152d-89c2-4eab-a52d-abece88b5e77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Automated Researchers Can Subtly Sandbag
tl;dr
When prompted, current models can sandbag ML experiments and research decisions without being detected by zero-shot prompted monitors. Claude 3.5 Sonnet (new) can only sandbag effectively when seeing a one-shot example, while Claude 3.7 Sonnet can do this without an examp... |
b08489ed-599e-4bee-bca4-3abea32c22a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | newcomb's altruism
Hello lesswrong community. I want to play a game. *jigsaw music plays*
In box B, I have placed either $1,000,000 multiplied by the number of humans on earth or $0. In box A I placed $1000 multiplied by the number of humans on earth. Every human on the planet, including you, will now be asked the fo... |
67f2ff5e-4e41-4230-b68a-96d19a16b658 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Exercise to Build Intuitions on AGI Risk
Epistemic status: confident that the underlying idea is useful; less confident about the details, though they're straightforward enough that I expect they're mostly in the right direction.
TLDR: This post describes a pre-mortem-like exercise that I find useful for thinking ... |
b027bfc4-dae2-4027-aa3c-8b7d7698277e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Five Theses, Using Only Simple Words
A [recent xkcd comic](http://xkcd.com/1133/) described the Saturn V rocket using only the 1000 most frequently used words (in English). The rocket was called “up-goer five,” and the liquid hydrogen... |
0d01a81e-0a75-40ac-a78f-ee407bc0fc37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theory
(A longer text-based version of this post is also available on MIRI's blog here, and the bibliography for the whole sequence can be found here.) |
b9a6d658-1042-4700-b8cb-2d3b7fd2a7e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Careless talk on US-China AI competition? (and criticism of CAIS coverage)
> China has made several efforts to preserve their chip access, including smuggling, buying chips that are just under the legal limit of performance, and investing in their domestic chip industry.[1]
Sounds about right?
hotpot.ai/art-generato... |
f6deb983-0bda-4534-b748-1e15b9b825c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | the systematic absence of libertarian thought
the systematic absence of libertarian thought
---------------------------------------------
to me, [libertarianism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarianism) aims to give people [freedom](defining-freedom.html), to [give them self-determination over their life](core-... |
db64b78a-0112-4f64-abb4-19de7d10b322 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | CEV-tropes
As seen in other [threads](/r/discussion/lw/l0v/cev_coherence_versus_extrapolation/), people disagree on whether CEV exists, and if it does, what it might turn out to be.
It would be nice to try to categorize common speculations about CEV.
1a. CEV doesn't exist, because human preferences are too [di... |
91dcf845-859c-437c-88a8-67429f5daa58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaculus Announces Forecasting Tournament to Evaluate Focused Research Organizations, in Partnership With the Federation of American Scientists
You are invited to participate in Metaculus's FRO-Casting Tournament, an exciting pilot project in partnership with The Federation of American Scientists that harnesses pred... |
4a681a92-4abb-4c33-bb41-1ce3943aca9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Study: no big filter, we're just too early
"Earth is one of the first habitable planets to form - and we're probably too early to the party to get a chance to meet future alien civilisations."
http://www.sciencealert.com/earth-was-one-of-the-first-habitable-planets-in-the-universe-and-most-are-yet-to-be-bor... |
b301d515-fc38-4bfd-a1db-0a202bb354f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Alignment at Large": Bending the Arc of History Towards Life-Affirming Futures
What if we expanded our lens beyond AI alignment, to grapple with the full scope of what "alignment" really means? We're facing not just the challenge of aligning artificial intelligence, but the deeper question of how to align technologic... |
f533f99b-05e7-416a-b3c0-f8529e26f837 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | On the Equilibrium Elicitation of Markov Games Through Information Design
1 Introduction
---------------
Building rational multi-agent system is an important research desideratum in Artificial Intelligence.
In goal-directed decision making systems, an agent’s action is controlled by its consequence [[1](#bib.bib1)]... |
2860aeb0-ea8d-4da8-b5dd-519771bba194 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | To contribute to AI safety, consider doing AI research
Among those concerned about risks from advanced AI, I’ve encountered people who would be interested in a career in AI research, but are worried that doing so would speed up AI capability relative to safety. I think it is a mistake for AI safety proponents to avoid... |
7096de63-bd37-4fde-a524-227e66f38614 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Automation of music production
Most machine learning researchers expect machines will be able to create top quality music by 2036.
Details
-------
### Evidence from survey data
In the [2016 ESPAI](http://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/), participants were asked two relevant questions:
[**To... |
169674f7-b6d6-45c4-abf8-7d8deef99bc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are long-term investments a good way to help the future?
[Epistemic status: I am very confused, possibly about very basic Econ 101 things. Probably there is more research I could do to resolve my confusion but I don't have the time or motivation for that right now.]
[Update: Paul Christiano's comment resolved a reas... |
fcec7881-e4b0-4160-82e8-5663bc75d1ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Aspiring Rationalist Congregation
1. Meta Note: This post has been languishing in a Google doc for many months as I've procrastinated on cleaning it up to be more coherent and polished. So... I'm posting it as is, with very little cleanup, in the hopes that it's valuable in the current state. I'm sure there are b... |
32c42a71-4118-41fd-bee7-f78ba4a5224a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proof Section to an Introduction to Reinforcement Learning for Understanding Infra-Bayesianism
Introduction
This post accompanies An Introduction to Reinforcement Learning for Understanding Infra-Bayesianism. The goal of this introduction is to provide a high-level overview of the proofs contained in this post.
The p... |
311c3fc3-4ec3-4b99-b575-c6b599b9acc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The mystery of pain and pleasure
Some arrangements of particles feel better than others. Why?
We have no general theories, only descriptive observations within the context of the vertebrate brain, about what produces pain and pleasure. It seems like there's a mystery here, a general principle to uncover.
Let's tr... |
8f5a10b5-8883-4e14-a00f-c93f3e5f666a | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Where the mind cuts against reality's grain, it generates wrong questions—questions that cannot possibly be answered on their own terms, but only dissolved by understanding the cognitive algorithm that generates the perception of a question.
One good cue that you're dealing with a "wrong question" is when you cannot e... |
147ebdfe-12ca-4e9f-95ec-5ea007a16961 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biological humans and the rising tide of AI
The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate focused on whether AI progress is winner-take-all. But even if it isn't, humans might still fare badly.
Suppose Robin is right. Instead of one basement project going foom, AI progresses slowly as many organizations share ideas with each o... |
f8be3ec1-5537-4cb9-945f-bc89b578ee32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conversation Visualizer
Conversation Visualizer
Voice to text to image to reflection.
----------------------------------------
Contents
* Background
* Construction
* Cost
* Examples
----------------------------------------
Background
niplav and I were discussing what makes good living room decor. It must be ... |
0554e45c-7c81-4376-ad2f-393c87a042e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Holden Karnofsky on Transparent Research Analyses
Holden Karnofsky is the co-founder of [GiveWell](http://www.givewell.org), which finds outstanding giving opportunities and publishes the full details of its analysis to help donors decide where to ... |
daa4c018-1dff-4df8-afd4-d2f396f92494 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much should I update on the fact that my dentist is named Dennis?
According to some psychology research (eg Pelham, Mirenberg, and Jones, people are slightly more likely to choose occupations that sound like their names: "people named Dennis or Denise are overrepresented among dentists". Other research (eg Simonso... |
88bd1aca-d1da-4816-8047-2839f2274c61 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning to Be Cautious
1 Introduction
---------------
One challenge in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) is to design agents that avoid doing harm or being destructive.
This is of particular concern in complex, dynamic environments that change over time, where exhaustive training and testing are infeasible... |
40d85dca-7fde-4776-a953-2cb82eedbf06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reality is Fractal-Shaped
Tl;dr: Much of common sense and personal insights are just first order approximations, broadly generalizing complex situations to a single supposed truth. But often the truth value of a claim depends on many hidden factors. In this post I argue that it’s important to maintain a general awaren... |
9900bdbd-6d9a-49ea-8ba4-9dd85eaee110 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Genie in the Bottle: An Introduction to AI Alignment and Risk
*I'm writing an article about the alignment problem and AI risk, and I'm sharing a draft with the fine folks here on LessWrong to elicit some feedback. I suspect most frequent readers here will already be familiar with the contents and arguments presen... |
dc36ad3c-7dfe-435f-a509-3ce0796d50ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A cheating approach to the tiling agents problem
(This post resulted from a conversation with Wei Dai.)
Formalizing the tiling agents problem is very delicate. In this post I'll show a toy problem and a solution to it, which arguably meets all the desiderata, but only by cheating in a new and unusual way.
Here's a s... |
af3dc54e-e618-47ff-afae-5ad096333b42 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Fixed points and free will
In his [most recent appearance](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/bryan-caplan-parenting-workers-betting/) on the 80,000 Hours podcast, [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) gave the following argument in favor of libertarian free will:
>
> One that I’m very te... |
3d355a6d-6593-4ea5-8526-84a219cd2354 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Muggle Studies course
At my local Harry Potter fanclub (Bogotá, Colombia) some members teach "classes" on subjects they're passionate about. We've had informal courses on history, creative writing, English, etc. But recently some other classes have appeared that have made me worry seriously: astrology, divination, a... |
6d27201c-5b66-4aa8-8edb-8ad0f249ea4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to get people to produce more great exposition? Some strategies and their assumptions
Some of the recent posts in the distillation & pedagogy tag here on LessWrong, such as "Call For Distillers" and the AI Safety Distillation Contest, have been bugging me, and this post is my attempt to introspect about why.
Here... |
e76f41ed-ec78-417f-9f44-adf2b0e10de2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Converted Book I of The Sequences Into A Zoomer-Readable Format
If I (a 19 year old male) texted "www.readthesequences.com" to my roommate, the probable outcome is that he would skim the site for under a minute, text back something like "seems interesting, I'll def check it out sometime", and then proceed to never r... |
2b376b59-3a38-40aa-81e5-d4db5cca809d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simulating Problems
Apologies for the rather mathematical nature of this post, but it seems to have some implications for topics relevant to LW. Prior to posting I looked for literature on this but was unable to find any; pointers would be appreciated.
In short, my question is: How can we prove that any simulation of... |
72e45fbb-2cff-4251-b158-cfc380a42f5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Strangest Thing An AI Could Tell You
Human beings are all crazy. And if you tap on our brains just a little, we get so crazy that even other humans notice. [Anosognosics](/lw/20/the_apologist_and_the_revolutionary/) are one of my favorite examples of this; people with right-hemisphere damage whose left arms beco... |
3e0e7d6a-8cfa-43bb-b9c9-b2fc5e601adc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Max Tegmark on the mathematical universe
Known as “Mad Max” for his unorthodox ideas and passion for adventure, his scientific interests range from precision cosmology to the ultimate nature of reality, all explored in his new... |
c5a29085-1b4f-4c6e-9206-a0b6e4455ec2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Please, someone make a dataset of supposed cases of "tech panic"
TL;DR: Someone should probably [write a grant to] produce a spreadsheet/dataset of past instances where people claimed a new technology would lead to societal catastrophe, but with informative variables such as “multiple people working on the tech believ... |
69563ef7-d584-470b-b0c2-e9dad60d06fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 4. Why existing approaches to cause prioritization are not robust to unawareness
We’re finally ready to see why unawareness so deeply undermines action guidance from impartial altruism. Let’s recollect the story thus far:
1. First: Under unawareness, “just take the expected value” is unmotivated.
2. Second: Likewis... |
13a36c0c-b5cd-4b3f-b0a9-c213e8759383 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: [Postponed for snow]
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: [Postponed for snow]
WHEN: 24 January 2016 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
Meetup has been postponed due to heavy snow expected this Friday shutting down public transit for the weekend.
This is a meetup ... |
e1b7a192-a33c-49d4-b57e-cf97e78f7589 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 13 February 2016 03:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße, Wien
Location: (often depicted wrong, come to U2 Stadlau) See picture below!
Event on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/events/1227373493945585/ (jo... |
003e21b3-9ddc-4070-8c22-8f45272ea1d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong opinion of Nietzsche?
So, at the risk of starting controversy, I'm not exactly sure what the policy is about asking questions on philosophy..
But would you mind giving your opinion on Nietzsche? I just bought Human, All Too Human. It's a tough read for me, and I'm sort of plowing through it, though it's int... |
7e5031b6-1ba8-4994-b21c-954e22b265ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Percent reduction of gun-related deaths by color of gun.
A thought experiment: Assume all guns were pink by law tomorrow.
Would that have an impact on the number of gun-related deaths? What percentage?
Would it have an impact on the number of mass shootings?
This is not an actual policy suggestion, so the feasibili... |
c1f0ee20-fd52-4030-800f-c8333b2661be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recent site changes, Mon 4th July
We've pushed out some new changes, including a front page. Promoted articles are now available at http://lesswrong.com/promoted/ and from the MAIN link in the top nav.
Most of the recent changes were requested here or here.
This is the place to comment on the new changes… but please... |
42e058c2-e6b4-4d28-aa1b-12bd6e40bfe9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forcing Freedom
Wretched Worlds
You are a freshly recruited cadet in the Intergalactic Liberation Corps (ILC). With a handful of valiant companions, you will travel across the galaxy, helping to free oppressed Beta Species from the claws of their Alpha masters, and fighting slavery whenever it dares to rear its ugly h... |
54e16310-1929-42a3-a29b-d5e650957109 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If someone with sufficient capabilities decides to deliberately create an Unaligned AGI, is there anything anyone can actually DO, to stop them?
The scenario is simple, some unassuming programmer creates a DAO on a Blockchain that is the seed AI, with the single purpose gaining political, economic, and military power ... |
066754d7-842b-4f72-8698-6a45ed23f77d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The U.S. is becoming less stable
We focus so much on arguing over who is at fault in this country that I think sometimes we fail to alert on what's actually happening. I would just like to point out, without attempting to assign blame, that American political institutions appear to be losing common knowledge of their ... |
00ac9014-3b15-4759-ac29-4c4cec72079b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Solving Mysteries -
Somewhat related? I've been wondering about whether or not GPT-4 can solve fictional mysteries (or provide a best guess). But I guess I'm also interested to see if fictional mysteries are actually typically written so that they'd be solvable, and if so, I'm assuming the pattern of assigning blame i... |
a8585ec3-688b-421b-8532-aeb948ed4c15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reality versus Human Expectations
Given two options:
1. Alter reality so it more closely aligns with human expectations.
2. Alter humans so their expectations more closely align with reality.
If it cost the same to implement either option, which would you prefer and why? |
8f11b671-9302-48e1-b221-e2719614757d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Basic model of Sending a Message (Communication 101)
My hope in writing this out is that you go "well duh! Of course" and then pretend like you knew this all already. Whether or not you did is up to you.
----------------------------------------
With communication there is going to be a Sender and a Receiver. These c... |
e6f564c1-21eb-4ff6-88ab-60c1e0f0940b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Change Our Minds Less Often Than We Think
> Over the past few years, we have discreetly approached colleagues faced with a choice between job offers, and asked them to estimate the probability that they will choose one job over another. The average confidence in the predicted choice was a modest 66%, but only 1 of ... |
6ce23b6c-ebd2-4702-8370-bb741ee9e57f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is keeping AI "in the box" during training enough?
Many current ML architectures do offline training on a fixed training set ahead of time. For example, GPT-3 is quite successful with this approach. These are, so-to-speak, "in the box" during training: all they can do is match the given text completion more or less we... |
07d72e48-4215-4f1f-93d8-78e08eb11066 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety in China: Part 2
I've given things a lot more thought and wanted to make an edited summary of my views regarding AI Safety in China.
1. AI Safety is almost nonexistent in China. The only toe-hold it has is rooted in the expat EA community, which is almost exclusively doing field building. This hasn't been ... |
8d64a002-d579-4136-8fb0-01bf9947186c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #49
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.
Highlights
Exploring Neural Networks with Activation Atlases (Shan Carter et al): Previous work by this group of people inclu... |
42356087-bd70-4c3d-a6ee-aac4ba780cd0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecast 2025 With Vox's Future Perfect Team — $2,500 Prize Pool
Vox's Future Perfect highlights long-term thinking and evidence-based ways to improve human and animal welfare. Each year, Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel forecast the year to come and evaluate their previous pr... |
3364b982-ee65-4521-8df0-d2f2fbbf2cd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A ghost
(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities)
This post describes a type of thought experiment I sometimes perform in thinking about what to do. I find it a helpful tool for stepping back from what’s immediately salient to me. It’s mostly just a somewhat hokey variant on a classic type of thought, and I’m not sure how... |
120e0712-a982-4d0c-8df3-c605164f8ce4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Timeless Decision Theory: Problems I Can't Solve
Suppose you're out in the desert, running out of water, and soon to die - when someone in a motor vehicle drives up next to you. Furthermore, the driver of the motor vehicle is a perfectly selfish ideal game-theoretic agent, and even further, so are you; and what's mor... |
e4c63b11-e69a-48a8-bd58-a30bb092ff89 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | ELK prize results
From January - February the Alignment Research Center [offered prizes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QEYWkRoCn4fZxXQAY/prizes-for-elk-proposals) for proposed algorithms for [eliciting latent knowledge](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-k... |
3902396a-c796-4d39-a74f-8674c4f69381 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Jade Leung: Why companies should be leading on AI governance
---
*Are companies better-suited than governments to solve collective action problems around artificial intelligence? Do they have the right incentives to do so in a prosocial way? In this talk, Jade Leung argues that the answer to both questions is "yes".*... |
84f37f09-aa24-4f87-895f-7d0a83e4d071 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Empirical Observations of Objective Robustness Failures
[Inner alignment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820) and [objective](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2mhFMgtAjFJesaSYR/2-d-robustness) [robustness](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/SzecSPYxqRa5GCaSF/clarifying-inner-alignment-terminology) have been freque... |
fbc1cfa0-d5be-4b42-a8d9-954da7407f56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Beyond the Reach of God
Today's post, Beyond the Reach of God was originally published on 04 October 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Compare the world in which there is a God, who will intervene at some threshold, against a world in which everything happens as a result of physical laws. Whi... |
fdcadd5f-284b-43f4-b2cf-f4a7368eee10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Open Borders
Edit: I now have a comment response post for this post on my personal website.
This is a (significantly updated) cross-post from my personal website. All sources are from the book unless otherwise mentioned.
Bryan Caplan is an economist at George Mason University known for his wacky libert... |
c59df8b5-9d5c-4a1b-8b65-419f9958e0ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Framing Practicum: Turnover Time
This is a framing practicum post. We’ll talk about what turnover time is, how to recognize when turnover time is relevant in the wild, and what questions to ask when you find it. Then, we’ll have a challenge to apply the idea.
Today’s challenge: come up with 3 examples of approximatel... |
a722e950-512c-4e9f-ad30-9fbc901afb22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on 'List of Lethalities'
I read through Eliezer’s “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” post, and wrote down my reactions* as I went.
I tried to track my internal responses, *before* adjusting for my perception of the overall thoughts of the field. In order to get this written and posted, I aimed to write the re... |
457b2f54-b396-4e37-aad5-73820465f8b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using GPT-3 for preventing conflict during messaging — a pitch for an app
I'm going to pitch an idea for an app, which I would love to see happen, but don't have time to build myself. My hope is that other people will steal and improve this idea because I believe it has the potential to help a lot of people including ... |
d0ed8e27-5a31-475f-bca3-f83a38919ebb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Bayesianism taught me
David Chapman criticizes "pop Bayesianism" as just common-sense rationality dressed up as intimidating math[1]:
> Bayesianism boils down to “don’t be so sure of your beliefs; be less sure when you see contradictory evidence.”
> Now that is just common sense. Why does anyone need to be told ... |
731aeb68-fbdc-423a-9baa-f87aeac2fc0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Singularity Summit 2010 Less Wrong Meetup
It's been a whole year (almost) and the Singularity Summit is upon us again. This time, instead of having a Meetup for only a few hours, we're going to have a continuous meetup lasting the entire length of the Summit. We will have a room adjacent to the lobby with a sign procl... |
66e84331-fdf7-43e1-88d5-9e39afe998e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ranking Cultures by Rationality
I have been interested in different cultures for a while, probably because I find so many deficiencies in my own culture. Which countries/cultures do you find to be generally the most rationally based? Japan and Sweden especially seem to have quite a secular populace mostly immune to si... |
343014ba-e406-4d2c-ad4b-1e8b8837d0cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] The Typical Mind Fallacy, Illustrated
If you've ever wanted a quick way to explain the Typical Mind Fallacy, this cartoon by Winston Rowntree will do the trick nicely.
(Panel 3 seems of particular relevance to LessWrongians, and the last two panels also remind me of Hufflepuff/Slytherin themes in HP:MOR.)
Enj... |
670021e4-b623-449c-b98a-3d5b4ec277ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Data capacity
The data capacity of an object is defined to be the [https://arbital.com/p/-3nd](https://arbital.com/p/-3nd) of the number of different distinguishable states the object can be placed into. For example, a coin that can be placed heads or tails has a data capacity of $\log(2)$ units of [https://arbital.co... |
8c009c76-3ded-43d0-b34e-43d57c30145e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attempting to Deconstruct "Real"
I see some current contentions which have a relatively invisible crux with respect to the concept of real. I'm increasingly doubtful that the concept means very much. I think ‘real’ or ‘reality’ is probably a mostly needless reification over several different and not fully compatible d... |
9a62dc20-0635-413a-bc3e-02d6ee48dea8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eight claims about multi-agent AGI safety
There are quite a few arguments about how interactions between multiple AGIs affect risks from AGI development. I’ve identified at least eight distinct but closely-related claims which it seems worthwhile to disambiguate. I’ve split them up into four claims about the process o... |
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