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03a92f73-8ff8-4850-9f93-ab5ccc26d50c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Five Years of Rethink Priorities: Impact, Future Plans, Funding Needs (July 2023)
Overview
--------
This piece highlights Rethink Priorities’ accomplishments, mistakes, and changes since its establ... |
5c5480f0-5e27-4572-8c73-381f09594899 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Few Tips on How to Generally Feel Better (and Avoid Headaches)
Meta: A recent post asking whether strenuous thinking can cause headaches prompted me to polish off and publish this long-incubating draft. These are some of my learnings from my multi-year ongoing headache/migraine/chronic pain journey. For every thing ... |
a6d9337d-72fa-49a1-b8bb-ff1a28eb3415 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SI and Social Business
I asked this question for the Q&A:
> Non-profit organizations like SI need robust, sustainable resource strategies. Donations and grants are not reliable. According to my university Social Entrepreneurship course, social businesses are the best resource strategy available. The Singularity Summi... |
0850ba00-6dca-409e-a5f8-c262f11d19fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jitters No Evidence of Stupidity in RL
Epistemic status: Pretty sure about core, not about edges
A while ago, I noticed a possible bias in how I evaluated reinforcement learning agents. It tended to cause me to revise my estimation of their intelligence downwards, after I viewed a video of them in action.
I've seen ... |
80cf8954-b827-4fde-a452-0be31b877e15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalists, Post-Rationalists, And Rationalist-Adjacents
Epistemic status: Hortative. I'm trying to argue for carving reality at a new joint.
I think it's lovely and useful that we have labels, not just for rationalist, but for rationalist-adjacent and for post-rationalist. But these labels are generally made exten... |
c98a09a8-f4c3-47ed-aa1f-8d3b7a44cb35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long Covid Informal Study Results
Introduction
Yesterday* I talked about a potential treatment for Long Covid, and referenced an informal study I’d analyzed that tried to test it, which had seemed promising but was ultimately a let down. That analysis was too long for its own post, so it’s going here instead.
Gez Me... |
ab75994a-ed45-4e08-9eb0-2fb6cdbba119 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preview On Hover
A couple years ago, Wikipedia added a feature where if you hover over an internal link you'll see a preview of the target page:
Other sites with similar features include gwern.net:
And LessWrong:
In general, I like these features a lot. They dramatically lower the barrier the following intern... |
fbf9029d-3df2-4c0c-b108-cdfbfe122271 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information Charts
Edit 2020/12/13: I think a lot of people have misunderstood my intent with this post. I talk about the 2020 election because it seemed like the perfect example to illustrate the point, but it was still only an example. The goal of this post is to establish a philosophically sound ground truth for pr... |
fe90f9fe-581d-465c-96ae-1907fd376a97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inspection Paradox as a Driver of Group Separation
> Have you ever noticed that anybody driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac? -- George Carlin
The Inspection Paradox, where the reported results are heavily observer-dependent, has been mentioned here a couple of times befor... |
14bc482d-d75f-40d1-87c3-eaab187fdc4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Operationalizing compatibility with strategy-stealing
Thanks to Noa Nabeshima and Kate Woolverton for helpful comments and feedback.
Defining optimization power
One of Eliezer's old posts which I think has stood the test of time the best is his “Measuring Optimization Power.” In it, Eliezer defines optimization powe... |
08fb8098-bcc2-409a-854e-96d83b5ba12f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Slim overview of work one could do to make AI go better (and a grab-bag of other career considerations)
Many kinds of work one could do to make AI go better and a grab-bag of other career considerations
I recently found myself confused about what I’d like to work on. So, I made an overview with the possible options f... |
45e1b4e7-b1e8-488e-b608-276b1bc1e5ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A possible check against motivated reasoning using elicit.org
Are you worried you may be engaging in motivated reasoning, rationalization ... or committing other reasoning fallacies?
I propose the following epistemic check using Elicit.org's "reason from one claim to another" tool
Whenever you have a theory that A→... |
fc2b983c-a640-4d4b-91de-cca19a393312 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Safety and Neighboring Communities: A Quick-Start Guide, as of Summer 2022
*Getting into AI safety involves working with a mix of communities, subcultures, goals, and ideologies that you may not have encountered in the context of mainstream AI technical research. This document attempts to briefly map these out for ... |
04f55485-9b5d-499a-b525-173e03020cef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Takeaways from the Intelligence Rising RPG
Last Saturday, we played Intelligence Rising. Intelligence Rising is a role-playing game about the global development of transformative AI technologies, where each player or team is a major government or company. We had a great time and we highly recommend you seize any oppor... |
0ba92123-3b9f-4dce-82c3-fbc36ecec10e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Catastrophic Risks from Unsafe AI: Navigating a Tightrope Scenario (Ben Garfinkel, EAG London 2023)
**Summary**
===========
Ben Garfinkel gave a talk at Effective Altruism Global: London in May 2023 about navigating risks from unsafe advanced AI. In this talk, he:
1. argued we should most focus on “tightrope” scenar... |
88eb4cb3-ce82-4a3a-93c4-f9d91934d006 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Boston: Making space in Interpersonal Interactions
Discussion article for the meetup : Boston: Making space in Interpersonal Interactions
WHEN: 07 June 2015 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 98 Elm Street, Somerville
Kate (from the blog Gruntled and Hinged) is going to be talking about a concept called holding spa... |
646216ea-a203-4f35-a6d7-40a9a657c58b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 2018-05-11 – Suggest Curation
I spent the past week fleshing out the new Sunshine Sidebar, a dashboard for moderators to see:
* All new posts
* New comments from users with 10 or less karma
* Reported comments
* Frontpage posts that have been suggested for curation
Hoping this keeps us much more on to... |
3e9b65c8-0497-4dea-a388-c87e3ad5feb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Advice for Activists from the History of Environmentalism
This is the fourth in a sequence of posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan?
This post has more of my personal opinions than previous posts or the report itself.
----------------------------------------
Other movements sho... |
f1ef36e0-12ac-48bf-bd99-4f2e7946738c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Avoid the abbreviation "FLOPs" – use "FLOP" or "FLOP/s" instead
Especially in discussions about AI, the abbreviation "FLOPs" is being used for both "floating point operations per second" (a measure of computational power) and "floating point operations" (a measure of total computations, and equivalent to the previous ... |
e0c53407-2202-4fb5-9bca-0cf168b7a635 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Extra Credits: The Singularity
The show Extra Credits released a video today about the singularity. The show's audience is video gamers. Some of these gamers may not know about the singularity, but may become interested upon hearing about it.
The video itself is a very basic, non-technical introduction to the... |
180992b4-f481-4544-9502-463a78c83782 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Peter Eckersley (1979-2022)
Security engineer, digital rights activist, AI safety and policy researcher. Beloved in these communities.
Eckersley is most famous as an advocate/developer at the intersection of tech and legal activism. His work on the [Let's Encrypt](https://letsencryp... |
c40e84a8-c776-42c5-909b-26c32455f2c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Empowerment is (almost) All We Need
Intro
=====
What/who would you like to become in a thousand subjective years? or a million?
Perhaps, like me, you wish to [become posthuman](https://nickbostrom.com/posthuman.pdf): to transcend mortality and biology, to become a substrate independent mind, to wear new bodies lik... |
527adb91-a98b-4459-b3d7-e9dd23149478 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Schools Proliferating Without Evidence
Robyn Dawes, author of one of the original papers from Judgment Under Uncertainty and of the book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World—one of the few who tries really hard to import the results to real life—is also the author of House of Cards: Psychology and Psychotherapy Built... |
c6575656-0b81-4056-89c9-7406829ab24c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [ASoT] Finetuning, RL, and GPT's world prior
*I’m trying out making a few posts with less polish and smaller scope, to iterate more quickly on my thoughts and write about some interesting ideas in isolation*[*before having fully figured them out*](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/KgrG4cQdLtL9DvNr2)*. Expect middling confid... |
19d0151d-8a84-4828-bb56-c2bd87b70a30 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Multi-Game Decision Transformers
1 Introduction
---------------
Building large-scale generalist models that solve many tasks by training on massive task-agnostic datasets has emerged as a dominant approach in natural language processing (Devlin et al., [2018](#bib.bib18); Brown et al., [2020](#bib.bib12)), computer... |
9a2a70b3-c4bc-47c7-b192-3202f5377e7f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post4
Sometimes people say that it's much less valuable to do AI safety research today than it will be in the future, because the current models are very different—in particular, much less capable—than the models that we're actually worried about. I think that argument is mostly right, but it misses a couple of re... |
9fcdcab0-afd5-41b9-a898-8b6724587f47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [moderator action] The_Lion and The_Lion2 are banned
Accounts "The_Lion" and "The_Lion2" are banned now. Here is some background, mostly for the users who weren't here two years ago:
User "Eugine_Nier" was banned for retributive downvoting in July 2014. He keeps returning to the website using new accounts, such as... |
67860fbd-0539-414d-92ba-1ca45bad4067 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much overlap is there between the utility function of GPT-n and GPT-(n+1), assuming both are near AGI?
I was daydreaming the other day, and I had a question about theoretical AI development.
I'm using "GPT-n" very casually, what I mean is a near AGI system that has some kind of utility function - I don't mean lit... |
afab5b5f-6ce1-4142-9809-7ea0fda5c7fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newbie questions about information theory and transformers
I have some very naive (and unfortunately sort of stream-of-consciousness) questions brought up by this post:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vAAneYowLkaHnihCg/textbooks-are-all-you-need
I definitely know that my ideas are poorly formed and I have no idea... |
627928c9-cac9-40b8-84ea-dea90cc7792d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Relational Speaking
Relational speaking is a style that emphasizes flow and the
relationship between subjects, rather than using pronouns to refer
to entities in the discourse. It is appropriate for a wide variety of
contexts, as it makes no assumptions about the gender of your
referents. Relational constructions have... |
9c9e3772-bb64-4315-9039-672cd1cc9e14 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A conversation with Pi, a conversational AI.
I've spent most of my time with ChatGPT, Bard, and the various incarnations of Bing. However, I have to say that Pi is the best conversationalist of the bunch. And I believe the addition of high-quality voice capability separates Pi from the other chatbots. Bard has a very ... |
51b7685c-9a5d-40e7-99db-2bc3f503065f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fractal Discussion Groups
One problem with current discussion groups is that they naturally gravitate towards a single world view.
When people in a community find a double crux which ends up in statements that currently can't collect evidence for, what should the community do?
If the community tries to stick as one ... |
b894893c-1f33-4e78-a9f8-786b53bf6252 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repeat Until Broke
Part 2 of the Inefficient Markets sequence.
[Educational purposes only! I am not your financial advisor! Read part 1 first.]
Knowledge, learned in the wrong order, can be dangerous. Before I teach you how to trade, I will teach you The Three Laws of Averting Ruin. To learn how to not lose money, y... |
29eb15ab-a366-46b6-8162-45f893e42247 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hidden Complexity of Wishes
(It has come to my attention that this article is currently being misrepresented as proof that I/MIRI previously advocated that it would be very difficult to get machine superintelligences to understand or predict human values. This would obviously be false, and also, is not what is bei... |
e47436de-d4dc-47bb-83ab-a3573e0e3ec9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which AI Safety techniques will be ineffective against diffusion models?
Google showed off Gemini Diffusion at their event yesterday and while I do not have access to the model just yet, based on what I have seen about so far, it seems impressive.
I have been interested in AI Safety for a while and have been trying t... |
d050ee63-655e-4fdd-9360-fbc5179eab4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value Learning – Towards Resolving Confusion
Part 1 - Keep calm and use revealed preferences. Originally posted on substack
In this post, I want to talk about the problem of value learning and specifically highlight a large amount of confusion around the problem and the term “values” generally. I hope to offer a para... |
f0838868-46f3-4222-8612-6f08ae55640c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring Beliefs of Language Models During Chain-of-Thought Reasoning
Based on research performed as a PIBBSS Fellow with Tomáš Gavenčiak as well as work supported by EA Funds and Open Philanthropy.
tl;dr: I'm investigating whether LLMs track and update beliefs during chain-of-thought reasoning. Preliminary experime... |
050298dc-c80e-4a16-bbcc-cb7504a70c0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coronavirus: the four levels of social distancing, and when and why we might transition between them
In this post, I describe four increasingly strict levels of social distancing that have been considered in response to the coronavirus situation. I then talk about how likely each is to succeed, how sustainable it is, ... |
87d03030-a805-489d-854b-be7027f23d18 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What I Learned Running Refine
> You have one job: Solving problems. You have multiple *tools*. Maybe you use code as a tool to solve some problems. Maybe you use design for others. Maybe you use good communication and negotiation skills.
>
>
Mike Acton, [How much time should I spend coding versus managing?](https:/... |
44481632-e107-4f9b-8451-aae71edc2737 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ad Fraud Detection Prediction Market
In my post on the GDPR status of ads I wrote that I expected that European data protection agencies would more likely than not rule that collecting personal information for ad fraud detection requires consent:
> Is it within the legitimate interests of sites to collect user data... |
1592d652-512e-431b-a841-a64289de247c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scout Mindset and Latter-Day Saint Apostasy
> The human understanding when it has once adopted an opinion [...] draws all things else to support and agree with it. And though there be a greater number and weight of instances to be found on the other side, yet these it either neglects and despises, or else by some dist... |
3c3a6cf0-c5f3-4516-bcd5-1d121c19b4d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the future of language models
1. Introduction
1.1 Summary of key claims
* Even without further breakthroughs in AI, language models will have big impacts in the coming years, as people start sorting out proper applications
* The early important applications will be automation of expert advisors, manag... |
0b5f532d-4a62-4231-8915-13a191f4ea46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Orthogonality is expensive
Crossposted from my personal blog
A common assumption about AGI is the orthogonality thesis, which argues that goals/utility functions and the core intelligence of an AGI system are orthogonal or can be cleanly factored apart. More accurately, it is important to distinguish between orthogon... |
c627614e-2965-4253-a934-3a20a54baf6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attention control is critical for changing/increasing/altering motivation
I’ve just been reading Luke’s “Crash Course in the Neuroscience of Human Motivation.” It is a useful text, although there are a few technical errors and a few bits of outdated information (see [1], updated information about one particular quibbl... |
b9c83fd9-00ca-462e-b23b-e60d059b9320 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You're in Newcomb's Box
Part 1: Transparent Newcomb with your existence at stake
Related: Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality
Omega, a wise and trustworthy being, presents you with a one-time-only game and a surprising revelation.
"I have here two boxes, each containing $100," he says. "You may choose to ta... |
278da0cd-3124-46c5-b7ea-bc3d46ca890b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explanatory Parsimony, Explanatory Superfluousness and Uselessness of Newton’s First Law
Why are Newton’s laws of motion such a scientific landmark? One often cited reason is their reach. The same laws governing the behaviour of an apple falling in your backyard also governs the motion of celestial bodies. Another, le... |
a2022253-1a3f-4823-a1e4-f425be817d2d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Law-Following AI 3: Lawless AI Agents Undermine Stabilizing Agreements
*This post is written in my personal capacity, and does not necessarily represent the views of OpenAI or any other organization. Cross-posted to the [Alignment Forum](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/DfcXaGH7XGYjW22C2/law-following-ai-3-lawless... |
de661e2e-f091-48b6-a0f0-fd96098f4e6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Beware the Unsurprised
Today's post, Beware the Unsurprised was originally published on May 3, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki):
> If reality consistently surprises you, then your model needs revision. But beware those who act unsurprised by surprising data. Maybe their model was too vague to be contrad... |
1a2f8b1a-ef54-42e8-81ae-e6a5545a209a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When to Be Nice vs Kind
While often used synonymously, there is a subtle yet meaningful distinction between being nice and being kind. Understanding when to prioritize kindness over niceness—and vice versa—helps me better navigate social situations with both authenticity and appropriate boundaries.
Definitions
Som... |
7002323b-3bb1-4860-a96c-34185ec31a46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If interpretability research goes well, it may get dangerous
I've historically been pretty publicly supportive of interpretability research. I'm still supportive of interpretability research. However, I do not necessarily think that all of it should be done in the open indefinitely. Indeed, insofar as interpretability... |
6c598a37-1c19-4183-8433-db62c0b83a95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Residing in the mortal realm
The last sevenish posts describe the main tools I have for removing guilt-based motivation. The common thread running through them can be summed up as follows: Reside in the mortal realm.
Many people hold themselves to a very different standard than they hold others. They hold themselves ... |
ac998963-07e7-4800-914a-88af470e018c | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I think the word ‘curiosity’ is used to describe two distinct things that I will now differentiate as active curiosity and open curiosity.Active curiosity is driven & purposeful. Like thirst, it seeks to be quenched.When you see a blurry object among distant waves and it looks like it might be a humpback whale, and yo... |
605f575d-da4c-4d02-8f35-a46111ab6ecb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Questions from an imaginary statistical methods exam
Answers to these questions should be expressed numerically, where possible, but no number should be given without a justification for the specific value.
1. Suppose that you have mislaid your house keys, something most people have experienced at one time or another... |
786450e6-3ef9-459d-ab64-debae46113dd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Student project for engaging with AI alignment
*Anyone can undertake this project, and feel free to make use of the* [*complete project description with all details needed to undertake this project*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/19jNKcyrOqIgk3Fem3cHlzHIbCgSYhcGX9UOrlKs34EE/edit?usp=sharing) *individually or as a... |
88011246-6ca6-4ff0-8ba9-2dd2b7217279 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Selecting the Default Browser in Facebook on Android
On mobile, when an app wants to open a web page, it has three options:
1. Use the user's default browser. You leave the app entirely, and switch to the browser. History, logins, autofill, etc work as the user expects.
2. (Android only) Use a "custom tab". Same a... |
e14117af-a518-43d0-a48f-7be068d16ba5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Narration-based Reward Shaping Approach using Grounded Natural Language Commands
1 Introduction
---------------
One of the chief goals in the field of artificial intelligence is to design agents that are capable of solving sequential decision making problems, i.e, problems in which an intelligent agent is expecte... |
3423c1e3-aebc-42b6-8964-9afd40bb27ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't Shoot the Messenger
|
05e18988-f913-4c3d-9d73-09dead6d2c1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Philadelphia - Humans are not automatically strategic
Discussion article for the meetup : Philadelphia - Humans are not automatically strategic
WHEN: 25 August 2013 04:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1515 Chestnut St, Philadelphia, PA
We will be meeting at Giovani Pizza at 4 PM on Sunday to discuss the article Huma... |
b2526696-034e-4594-bdc1-5b9ef2a5fb54 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | We are now the “Machine Intelligence Research Institute” (MIRI)
When Singularity University (SU) [acquired](http://singularityu.org/singularity-university-acquires-the-singularity-summit/) the Singularity Summit from us in December, we also agreed to change the name of our institute to avoid brand confusion between th... |
7ac42bb5-34d9-44e2-96fc-c3b17cc601db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Measuring Structure Development in Algorithmic Transformers
tl;dr: We compute the evolution of the local learning coefficient (LLC), a proxy for model complexity, for an algorithmic transformer. The LLC decreases as the model learns more structured solutions, such as head specialization.
This post is structured in t... |
2c3c7fab-2f6d-4344-b143-2a8aed8fa60e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searching for a model's concepts by their shape – a theoretical framework
Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2022 Cohort
Introduction
I think that Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision (DLK; Burns, Ye, Klein, & Steinhardt, 2022) is a very cool pap... |
ccd6d3ff-e2f2-4c88-8b9d-4101389a9007 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | LW4EA: Some cruxes on impactful alternatives to AI policy work
Written by LW user [Richard\_Ngo](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/ricraz).
This is part of [LessWrong for EA](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/low-commitment-less-wrong-book-club), a LessWrong repost & low-commitment discussion group (inspired b... |
9a74dc7f-cec1-46fd-a3f2-fdd585e50b6d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | CC_ -1
CC\_ -1
-------
a known problem with [the CC0 license](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_Commons_license#Zero_/_public_domain) is its [infamous patent clause](https://opensource.stackexchange.com/questions/133/how-could-using-code-released-under-cc0-infringe-on-the-authors-patents), which says:
> No t... |
3a4f6765-86af-4933-ab28-af7c3db2bd67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Precommitting to paying Omega.
Related to: Counterfactual Mugging, The Least Convenient Possible World
MBlume said:
> What would you do in situation X?" and "What would you like to pre-commit to doing, should you ever encounter situation X?" should, to a rational agent, be one and the same question.
Applied to Vlad... |
0c006dad-9366-4a6a-84a7-faa0672ab691 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage? [linkpost]
> Recent work claims that large language models display emergent abilities, abilities not present in smaller-scale models that are present in larger-scale models. What makes emergent abilities intriguing is two-fold: their sharpness, transitioning se... |
83510aa0-ff5c-4631-bbd7-d758bee17d67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of "The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds," Michael Lewis' book about Kahneman & Tversky
|
319b470f-1262-45ac-adaf-449769808cfa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Like-Minded Forums
What awesome forums around the internet can you recommend?
LW, OB, EA, and SSC are all in the current rationalist cluster. What forums do you know from outside the cluster that would appeal to those within it? |
f37c9dc0-66b1-45d1-a48f-9b380a73e21e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes Thread March 2016
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.
* Post all q... |
430c2133-2e09-433a-8797-054525bbf857 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions: preprint
A preprint of the "The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions – and what they mean for the future" is now available on the FHI's website.
Abstract:
Predicting the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is a difficult proje... |
d37b9c34-dd80-4c59-8507-df57026161be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Perfect rolling sphere
A "perfect rolling sphere" is metaphorically an object that is too simple or idealized to exist in real life. It derives from an old joke about a physicist who tries to bet on horse races, starting from the assumption that each horse is a perfect rolling sphere. Nonetheless, in a lot of cases,... |
c6c8c056-dfb9-4fcf-a95a-befb87969734 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Yudkowsky on AGI risk on the Bankless podcast
Eliezer gave a very frank overview of his take on AI two weeks ago on the cryptocurrency show Bankless:
I've posted a transcript of the show and a [**follow-up Q&A**](https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1PlJQpZogzVGE) below.
Andrea\_Miotti, remember, and vonk previously posted... |
88b558a0-c3c5-4781-917e-d8c05988fed4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Leveraging Human Guidance for Deep Reinforcement Learning Tasks
1 Introduction
---------------
In end-to-end learning of sequential decision tasks, algorithms such as imitation learning (IL) [[Osa et al.2018](#bib.bibx38)], reinforcement learning (RL) [[Sutton and
Barto2018](#bib.bibx48)], or a combination of both ... |
52735196-93d1-4e75-8e0e-83955bc18588 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Reworked version of a shortform comment. This is still not the optimal version of this post but it's the one I had time to re-publish.I've spent the past few years trying to get a handle on what it means to be moral. In particular, to be moral in a robust way, that holds up in different circumstances. A year-ish ago, ... |
5fafc835-35aa-4892-867f-a2acb2b91310 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | GPT 5 is All About Data
find out what I could about gpt5 I have
read every academic paper I could find
about it every leak report interview
snippet and media article I can
summarize it like this it will come down
to data how much of it there is how it's
used and where it comes from these are
the factors that will dict... |
5efb8146-d8f7-428b-bb71-b5509fd578f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup: Bay Area: Sunday, March 7th, 7pm
Overcoming Bias / Less Wrong meetup in the San Francisco Bay Area at SIAI House on March 7th, 2010, starting at 7PM.
Eliezer Yudkowsky, Alicorn, and Michael Vassar will be present.
Some other extra guests - Wei Dai, Stuart Armstrong, and Nick Tarleton - will be also be there... |
9a98b086-5399-421c-bf58-513f4ac2136f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Meet-up
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Meet-up
WHEN: 27 October 2015 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St Manchester NH 03104
The sixth NH meet-up is Tuesday, 10/27, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm at a private residence. Light refreshments will be provided.
Have you read Rati... |
8fc1492e-87ed-4566-951d-d8500b67d5ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Good King
In the late 4th Century BC, Athens executed its statesman and de facto ruler, Phocion. Phocion served Athens with distinction throughout his political career. His leadership was one of extreme care and justice. His was a frugal life, lived in a simple home, and he refused bribes of all sorts, no matter h... |
8529ad95-9a68-4403-a940-4b861ed64ffb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | some thoughts on LessOnline
I mostly wrote this for facebook, but it ended up being a whole-ass post so I figured I'd put it here too.
I'm helping run "LessOnline: A Festival of Writers Who Are Wrong On the Internet (But Striving To Be Less So)".
I'm incentivized to say nice things about the event. So, grain of s... |
d782201b-cdea-4895-b778-a7396d26e8bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attention on AI X-Risk Likely Hasn't Distracted from Current Harms from AI
Summary
In the past year, public fora have seen growing concern about existential risk (henceforth, x-risk) from AI. The thought is that we could see transformative AI in the coming years or decades, that it may be hard to ensure that such syst... |
68ee9b74-6e3d-4a94-88e5-edff5e54472d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: August 2011
For miscellaneous discussions and remarks not suitable for top-level posts even in the Discussion section, let alone in Main.
(Naturally, if a discussion gets too unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post, just like in the good old days.) |
f39f0507-6547-444b-a16a-f63bcc1edb5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Common Misconceptions about Dual Process Theories of Human Reasoning
(This is mostly a summary of Evans (2012); the fifth misconception mentioned is original research, although I have high confidence in it.)
It seems that dual process theories of reasoning are often underspecified, so I will review some common miscon... |
7c8411f6-1645-444d-bd67-ec91a05310eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probability theory and logical induction as lenses
This is independent research. To make it possible for me to continue writing posts like this, please consider supporting me.
----------------------------------------
Abstract
I frame probability theory as a lens for understanding the real-world phenomenon of machin... |
c007d606-c86d-4193-aa9e-33e86b8347de | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | «Boundaries/Membranes» and AI safety compilation
In this post I outline every post I could find that meaningfully connects the concept of «Boundaries/Membranes» ([tag](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/boundaries-membranes-technical)) with AI safety.[[1]](#fnh6pjihkqz8o) This seems to be a booming subtopic: interest has p... |
daac1023-e706-4433-a34e-cbb6ec4f379a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In memory of Thomas Schelling
|
e5572759-c4d1-4095-855a-f0c9116225cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky
Preamble: Delta vs Crux
I don’t natively think in terms of cruxes. But there’s a similar concept which is more natural for me, which I’ll call a delta.
Imagine that you and I each model the world (or some part of it) as implementing some program. Very oversimplified example: if... |
ccd6d8ed-4716-463a-a6f1-140c1aed2370 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What newsletters are you subscribed to, and why?
I've found myself increasingly feeling the need for curated newsletters on the topics I care about from interesting people in the field, but I have little clue where to look for them.
I currently follow TLDR newsletter(in Telegram because that’s more convenient than in... |
1119c2a5-8bab-452e-88ad-6f97dc6e60bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Cauchy's theorem on subgroup existence: intuitive version
Cauchy's Theorem states that if $G$ is a finite [https://arbital.com/p/-group](https://arbital.com/p/-group), and $p$ is a [prime](https://arbital.com/p/4mf) dividing the [order](https://arbital.com/p/3gg) of $G$, then $G$ has an element of order $p$.
Equivalen... |
910526e3-1a7d-48b9-9ca8-2a926a1d0d61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vaccination with natural immunity
Why it's important to me: I have had Covid, alas unofficially, which means the healthcare system doesn't recognize me eligible for just one shot of Pfizer.
The same healthcare system also supposedly issued a statement early this summer about how recovered patients must receive one mR... |
626fc2e2-50c6-46f2-a1bf-4ae685f07f08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Changing accepted public opinion and Skynet
Michael Annisimov has put up a website called Terminator Salvation: Preventing Skynet, which will host a series of essays on the topic of human-friendly artificial intelligence. Three rather good essays are already up there, including an old classic by Eliezer. The associati... |
d5cf4ce4-b144-4aa8-9a29-2d37d81efd1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hacker-AI and Cyberwar 2.0+
I have been hacked, and some (selected) files have been deliberately deleted - this file/post was part of it. I found suspicious software on my computer; I made screenshots - these screenshots were deleted together with several files from my book “2028 - Hacker-AI and Cyberwar 2.0”. I coul... |
7da8df7d-2730-40d1-94c1-3bd5176363f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SunPJ in Alenia
Note: I think this story linking AI, illusionism, and altruism is best read without further priming, but the first 3 paragraphs of the long Afterword provide a summary.
Eerie abductee
Year 2023. On her trip past the solar system, Bibi cannot resist collecting a carbonoid specimen (human) to study its... |
08f4b5a2-c47c-4756-bac2-8fffdd4d7e3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA: Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA: Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation
WHEN: 17 June 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 santa monica blvd, la, ca
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is ... |
fd9ce034-06e3-418d-a8e4-44d189ca8bc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Teacup Test
"I want to get into AI alignment," said Xenophon.
"Why?" said Socrates.
"Because an AGI is going to destroy humanity if we don't stop it," said Xenophon.
"What's an AGI?" said Socrates.
"An artificial general intelligence," said Xenophon.
"I understand the words 'artificial' and 'general'. But wha... |
87c32a20-663a-4d2e-81d3-2c8e2b24a82f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | so you think you're not qualified to do technical alignment research?
so you think you're not qualified to do technical alignment research?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
along with "i'm not sure how i'd get paid (enough)", "i don't think i'm qualified" is the foremost reason i... |
40ac6701-c885-4858-9b42-ccd75dd4bf11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wittgenstein and Word2vec: Capturing Relational Meaning in Language and Thought
One-line version of this post: What do Wittgensteinian language games and NLP word embeddings have in common?
Four-line version of this post: Relational, praxis-based connections between concepts, represented as “distances” in multidim... |
0d766c40-4c25-4890-b807-ac68aa3c8a65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Quest for Artificial Intelligence
0.0
THE QUEST FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
A HISTORY OF IDEAS AND ACHIEVEMENTS
Web Version
Print version published by Cambridge University Press
http://www.cambridge.org/us/0521122937
Nils J. Nilsson
Stanford University
Copyright c
2010 Nils J. Nilsson
http://ai.stanford.edu/ nils... |
cd6f7149-55c8-4b3a-bd79-52e554ed549a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowing what you want is a prerequisite to getting what you want
Frequently, we decide on a goal, and then we are ineffective in working towards this goal, due to factors wholly within our control. Failure modes include giving up, losing interest, procrastination, akrasia, and <a href="http://lesswrong.com/lw/2p1/a_fa... |
41038dbf-439d-47e9-819e-c33247c0c982 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conjecture internal survey: AGI timelines and probability of human extinction from advanced AI
We put together a survey to study the opinions of timelines and probability of human extinction of the employees at Conjecture. The questions were based on previous public surveys and prediction markets, to ensure that the r... |
edbad946-f15a-4f18-928e-046a520521f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Studying Early Stage Science: Research Program Introduction
(Leverage just posted the below introduction into their current research program to Medium, and I got permission to crosspost it here. I think it's quite a good read, and I more broadly think that the history of science is one of the best ways to study the ar... |
89e6c9e2-d742-4077-a5ac-2c1b5fe4318d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Finding Options that Minimize Planning Time
1 Introduction
---------------
Markov Decision Processes or MDPs Puterman ([1994](#bib.bib33)) are an expressive yet simple model of sequential decision-making environments. However, MDPs are computationally expensive to solve Papadimitriou & Tsitsiklis ([1987](#bib.bib30... |
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