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60fd2e08-4ebd-4da4-9cc8-144267aa470b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : MIRIx workshop on Logical Induction
Discussion article for the meetup : MIRIx workshop on Logical Induction
WHEN: 01 April 2017 08:30:00AM (+0100)
WHERE: Universität Zürich Irchel, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland
In the first MIRIx Zurich workshop, we study Logical Induction, based on the... |
0706dd27-600d-4fa1-bebf-7d63001c25f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | goal-program bricks
(this post has been written for the first [Refine](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7epkkJb3CqDTYgX9/refine-an-incubator-for-conceptual-alignment-research-bets) blog post day, at the end of the week of readings, discussions, and exercises about epistemology for doing good conceptual research)
this... |
18297a43-4bfe-420b-b469-c5a99a806650 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why no total winner?
Why doesn't a single power rule the world today?
[I'm taking advantage of the new "LW posts as blog posts" format to post something I'm pretty unsure about. I'm working from my memories of the blog posts, and from a discussion I had with Robin Hanson and Katja Grace in late 2012. Please let me kn... |
a0237cd8-fd79-48f2-9b4a-6ee2d1554a90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Functional Decision Theory still an active area of research?
Looks like discussion of the issue died down in recent years, bit it strikes me as really important to have a good decision theory. So:
1. Are folks still actively working on this, and do you see it as a promising area?
2. It seems like the academic co... |
1a53faed-9864-46ba-bc41-2df088b68a21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crisis of Faith
> It ain’t a true crisis of faith unless things could just as easily go either way.
>
> —Thor Shenkel
Many in this world retain beliefs whose flaws a ten-year-old could point out, if that ten-year-old were hearing the beliefs for the first time. These are not subtle errors we’re talking about. They w... |
db225ad2-06e9-46da-801c-14d6e296819d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Distracting wolves and real estate agents
I'm starting the process of looking for a house to buy. The first thing every real estate agent says you need to do is to sign an exclusive contract with a real estate agent before they take you to look at houses.
I spoke to some co-workers, and none of them signed the contr... |
c6746e79-64f1-4e1b-9d8c-606a88695b31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Deciphering China’s AI dream
1 | Deciphering China’s AI Dream
Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI
Jeffrey Ding\*
Centre for the Governance of AI,
Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford
March 2018
\*Address corre... |
5b891d60-ce6b-4a00-82bf-279f6aa29139 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for some pieces of transhumanist fiction
The first one: [EDIT: Found it! Thanks to RolfAndreassen]
This is turning out to be *really* hard to find; I would have made a point of saving it if I'd expected no-one else to have heard of it. I need to make a page of all the weird singularity/transhuman fiction I'... |
36afcb5f-a5ba-4c1c-8761-85141397ccdf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | We’re going to merge with the machines so this will never be a problem, right?
The concept of “merging with machines,” as popularized by [Ray Kurzweil](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil), is the idea that we will be able to put computerized elements into our brains that enhance us to the point where we oursel... |
df81ef7a-2f27-4986-a5bf-695d748973f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Muppet: Massive Multi-task Representations with Pre-Finetuning
1 Introduction
---------------
The recent success of language model pre-training Devlin et al. ([2018](#bib.bib12)); Liu et al. ([2019b](#bib.bib37)); Lewis et al. ([2019](#bib.bib33)); Raffel et al. ([2019](#bib.bib48)); Radford et al. ([2019](#bib.bib... |
951454bb-ff9f-47ff-879b-5997e79b48d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Hedging our Bets: The Case for Pursuing Whole Brain Emulation to Safeguard Humanity's Future
It is the fashion in some circles to promote funding for Friendly AI research as a guard against the existential threat of Unfriendly AI. While this is an admirable goal, the path to Whole Brain Emulation is in many respects m... |
66cbf888-9bc2-4b28-9591-6afa15462b02 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Representation Engineering: A Top-Down Approach to AI Transparency
1 Introduction
---------------
Figure 2: Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) vs. Representation Engineering (RepE). This figure draws from (Barack & Krakauer, [2021](#bib.bib6); Wang et a... |
c6d33857-279c-4b29-9575-7890aad62223 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Thiel’s New American Regime
Thiel attempts to do what he once criticized Locke for doing, but conservatives must not lose sight of the important questions again.
Peter Thiel, who will be known as the most consequential philosopher in this decisive moment in Western History, wrote a recent op-ed in the Financial Ti... |
78ecc981-793b-47fb-98c9-747172bc76ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 7 traps that (we think) new alignment researchers often fall into
We've noticed that new alignment researchers (and sometimes experienced alignment researchers) often fall into similar traps.
Here are 7 traps that we often see in new alignment researchers:
### 1. They think they need to be up-to-date on the literatu... |
dcbb5cea-a087-4a25-b704-6aa50c244c6b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaling Laws for Autoregressive Generative Modeling
1 Introduction
---------------
Large scale models, datasets, and compute budgets have driven rapid progress in machine learning. Recent work [[HNA+{}^{+}start\_FLOATSUPERSCRIPT + end\_FLOATSUPERSCRIPT17](#bib.bibx7), [RRBS19](#bib.bibx20), [LWS+{}^{+}start\_FLOATS... |
50e647a3-f4ec-445d-bd32-04129f434830 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Social Substrate
This post originally appeared on The Gears To Ascension
ABSTRACT
I present generative modeling of minds as a hypothesis for the complexities of social dynamics, and build a case for it out of pieces. My hope is that this explains social behaviors more precisely and with less handwaving than its ... |
d6f5025b-9b9b-499f-9ef3-d9ef4e82df75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Useless Medical Disclaimers
Today's post, Useless Medical Disclaimers was originally published on March 19, 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Medical disclaimers without probabilities are hard to use, and if probabilities aren't there because some people can't handle having there, maybe we ought... |
73f4927e-2f92-4d5c-800b-7ea5c9b2bc55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Kasper Stoy on self-reconfigurable robots
 [Kasper Stoy](http://www.itu.dk/~ksty/) is a robotics and embodied artificial intelligence researcher holding an associate professor position at the Software and Systems Section of the [... |
bdfc7b97-e131-4353-819f-a3cab30c5b10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Utility Arguments for Probabilism [Link]
Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
First published Fri Sep 23, 2011
> In this entry, we explore a particular strategy that we might deploy when we wish to establish an epistemic norm such as Probabilism or Conditionalization. It is called epistemic utility theory... |
d4d47dd4-191f-4845-a61e-12b2f6f9cecc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scholarship Booster: My favorite journals
Those interested in my same primary area of interest (cogsci/philosophy) may like to know what my favorite journals are. (Notice they are heavily weighted for review articles.) Here are some of my favorites:
* Trends in Cognitive Sciences
* Behavioral and Brain Sciences
* ... |
dee688f8-26c8-4031-8b84-a239e3345b2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ann Arbor Meetup, 2/19/16
Discussion article for the meetup : Ann Arbor Meetup, 2/19/16
WHEN: 19 February 2016 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 611 Church St, Ann Arbor, MI 48104
I'm new here. If any of you know a good place to meet and would like to mention it in the comments, it'd be much appreciated. If there'... |
81d3ce4e-322b-465a-9b88-51477d0b73a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Probably good projects for the AI safety ecosystem
At [EAGxBerkeley 2022](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/eagxberkeley2022/), I was asked several times what new projects might benefit the AI safety and longtermist research ecosystem. I think that several existing useful-according-to-me projects (e.g., [SERI MATS](http... |
39588d0b-c88c-491b-b147-00f8369a0be9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aligned AI May Depend on Moral Facts
Thanks to feedback on my recent post I've been reconsidering some of my thinking about how to address meta-ethical uncertainty as it affect alignment. I've run into something unexpected, and I'm curious to see what others think. To quote the key paragraph from my current draft:
> ... |
186da520-20fb-4d29-b025-cc6997513392 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scissors Statements for President?
(Epistemic status: I spoke simply / without "appears to" hedges, but I'm not sure of this at all.)
I’m confused why we keep getting scissors statements as our Presidential candidates, but we do. (That is: the candidates seem to break many minds/communities.)
A toy model:[1]
Take ... |
1011c972-8200-4604-b70f-a34916caae90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning Values in Practice
(This talk was given at a public online event on Sunday July 12th. Stuart Armstrong is responsible for the talk, Justis Mills edited the transcript.
If you're a curated author and interested in giving a 5-min talk, which will then be transcribed and edited, sign up here.)
Stuart Arms... |
2a6b581a-8835-4f4e-9480-3a44e239974b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beware Trivial Inconveniences
The Great Firewall of China. A massive system of centralized censorship purging the Chinese version of the Internet of all potentially subversive content. Generally agreed to be a great technical achievement and political success even by the vast majority of people who find it morally abh... |
3b0d99d7-645c-41f7-8025-d3781dac8faf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Dynamic Control Flow in Large-Scale Machine Learning
1. Introduction
----------------
Advances in machine learning and their many
applications have brought into focus conflicting design objectives for
the underlying systems. These systems should be scalable:
they should use hardware resources efficiently, on platfo... |
1621471c-8eb5-485b-8a68-e9373d85b0a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feeling Progress as Motivation
It’s hard to stay motivated.
This is not a new idea. I don’t expect to present anything new here.
That being said, there is something that I’ve been using to stay motivated recently that felt worth sharing.
And that something is a yo-yo.
Well, it isn’t the yo-yo per se; it’s what the... |
8842fd0d-0334-48e0-a539-0eb6b09e4d19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Without - MicroFiction 250 words
This micro fiction is a love letter to my husband, Mati Roy, a most dedicated life logger who would capture my entire life as well, if he could.
Without
“I'm out of vanilla. It calls for a teaspoon but we all know that's a minimum.” Distraught, she threw the empty bottle into the tra... |
0319807a-4045-44f3-a2bb-e1db6f59bebd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bug: Inconsistent session status
The status of my user session on LW2 is halfway-preserved by cookies (with everything else reset). The top bar shows the username on the initial page load, but changes to "LOGIN" on any refresh.
I have not investigated, but I suspect using some mechanism for session permanence that wa... |
f1853cce-ce97-41f7-b2ac-7c62e20894b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frank Herbert's great insight into human agency - Muad'Dib the tool?
Frank Herbert is undoubtedly one of the most fantastical writers of humanity in a framework of entertainment.
I wanted to create this post to discuss and interpret if Paul being elevated to the Lisan al Gaib (a title and prophecy planed by The Missi... |
1f08d8c5-7683-411b-9cf1-853aab37e4a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, September 9-15, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
bf9ee99e-66dd-4908-b300-e5957ff6bdc0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2010 Singularity Research Challenge Fulfilled!
Thanks to our donors, yesterday we met our fundraising goal of $100,000 for the 2010 Singularity Research Challenge. MIRI would like to thank the grant’s matching donors and everyone who contributed. Every donation, however small, funds research and advocacy targeted towa... |
83c5771c-fd89-4f66-8bc5-e1d2dd1c2952 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lamda is not an LLM
…so new interview with Blake Lemoine.
Lamda is not an LLM. It’s an LLM retrained in real-time by Deepmind’s StarCraft playing AlphaStar with full ability to query Google Search, Books, Maps. I note that much of the dismissal of Blake Lemoine’s claims strawman Lamda as GPT-3 but it’s so much easier... |
07532157-eb4d-4a66-bcfc-ab8edc341fe2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Imposing FAI
All the posts on FAI theory as of late have given me cause to think. There's something in the conversations about it that has always bugged me, but it is something that I haven't found the words for before now.
It is something like this:
Say that you manage to construct an algorithm for FAI...
Say that... |
beeb566c-a8c8-41c3-b087-2c69bead8cff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repeal the Foreign Dredge Act of 1906
There are a lot of ludicrously terrible government laws, regulations and policies across all the domains of life. My Covid posts have covered quite a lot of them.
Yet if I had to pick one policy that was the Platonic ideal of stupid, the thing that has almost zero upside and also... |
80edf0b2-7681-4b7e-af5c-b7b588c18f06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brain shrinkage in humans over past ~20 000 years - what did we lose?
The human brain volume has been shrinking over the past 20 000 years or so, after millions years of increase in volume. Not just the brain size, but the brain size relatively to body size as well. We are lacking a tennis-ball sized piece of our earl... |
ab36d7b5-cbf9-4887-bd6e-5bc4056c3d4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hidden Perils of Hydrogen
Hydrogen is the fuel of the future. It’s the most abundant element in the universe, is incredibly mass-efficient, and can be produced without much fuss. It can be used for both large and small scale energy production (think fusion and fuel cells respectively), and has virtually no emissio... |
2587e52e-4c4b-4322-b0ed-5bb657c80cd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revisiting the Manifold Hypothesis
In the following analysis, a machine learning challenge is proposed by Sasha Kolpakov, Managing Editor of the Journal of Experimental Mathematics, and myself to verify a strong form of the Manifold Hypothesis due to Yoshua Bengio.
Motivation:
In the Deep Learning book, Ian Goodfe... |
1d7dadde-8229-4049-a199-378756848bb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #21: August 2024
Strictly speaking I do not have that much ‘good news’ to report, but it’s all mostly fun stuff one way or another. Let’s go.
BAD NEWS
Is this you?
> Patrick McKenzie: This sounds like a trivial observation and it isn’t:
>
> No organization which makes its people pay for coffee want... |
0a75030f-b9a6-4c4d-93da-52c9d2e10337 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Modeling the capabilities of advanced AI systems as episodic reinforcement learning
Here I'll summarize the main abstraction I use for thinking about future AI
systems. This is essentially [the same model that Paul uses](https://medium.com/ai-control/problem-safe-ai-from-episodic-rl-3bddc1c98a99#.vwegn5r17).
I'm not a... |
2dd84811-b271-4619-8a93-284555160a67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reliability amplification
In a recent post I talked about capability amplification, a putative procedure that turns a large number of fast weak agents into a slower, stronger agent.
If we do this in a naive way, it will decrease reliability. For example, if…
* Our weak policy fails with probability 1%.
* In order... |
33140434-9d5b-45ad-923d-93860c4c102a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kakistocuriosity
I'm coining the word 'kakistocurious'.
Its etymology derives from
* the Greek prefix kakisto-, meaning 'worst', as in 'kakistocracy' (rule of the worst),
* and the English suffix -curious, meaning 'wanting to know', as in 'bicurious'.
People who are kakistocurious think about stereotypically bad... |
f49184be-5818-4d09-9eef-5e0143099a7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retain flexibility with habits?
I've recently been using habits to increase my productivity.
However, I've noticed a downside. If I start the day off by failing
my morning routine (wake up early, exercise) the entire rest
of the day is wasted since I feel off track.
Before habits I was much more flexible. Is there a ... |
f6e0912a-279c-4e5c-ba1a-1906a06a3db4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comments on OpenAI's "Planning for AGI and beyond"
Sam Altman shared me on a draft of his OpenAI blog post Planning for AGI and beyond, and I left some comments, reproduced below without typos and with some added hyperlinks. Where the final version of the OpenAI post differs from the draft, I’ve noted that as well, ma... |
c2b0d98a-0f0d-410a-af6e-8ca71e5f70ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Weekly Chicago Meetups
Discussion article for the meetup : Weekly Chicago Meetups
WHEN: 14 April 2012 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 360 N Michigan Ave, Chicago IL
The Chicago LW meetup group is now meeting every week, Saturdays at 1pm, at the Corner Bakery on the corner of Michigan & Wacker.
Topic for this we... |
c9c352ee-2c8f-4afd-b5b0-dbc27bb750a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong's (first) album: I Have Been A Good Bing
tl;dr: LessWrong released an album! Listen to it now on Spotify, YouTube, YouTube Music, or Apple Music.
On April 1st 2024, the LessWrong team released an album using the then-most-recent AI music generation systems. All the music is fully AI-generated, and the lyri... |
03eb7fcd-a451-431c-8c58-8df80d9aaa18 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | MESA: Offline Meta-RL for Safe Adaptation and Fault Tolerance
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning (RL) is a versatile abstraction that has shown significant recent success in learning a variety of different robotic tasks purely from interactions with the environment. However, while learning polici... |
a35b07e1-575f-474c-beac-6720925802ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] How a Computer Game is Reinventing the Science of Expertise
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/12/01/how-a-computer-game-is-reinventing-the-science-of-expertise-video/
> For decades, a different game, chess, has held the exalted position of “the drosophila of cognitive science”—the model ... |
6937380f-9cac-4d78-b84a-39cc3882d460 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Buffalo Meetup: Survey of Interest
I'd like to start a LW meetup group in Buffalo, NY and would like to get an idea of how many people may be interested in attending. I'm hoping to get meetups started sometime in January. If you're interested, email me at BuffaloLW@gmail.com (and comment below). Anyone who sends me an... |
c3c2ad2f-fc9b-4c05-9f6a-50a586bd685e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Future ML Systems Will Be Qualitatively Different
In 1972, the Nobel prize-winning physicist Philip Anderson wrote the essay "More Is Different". In it, he argues that quantitative changes can lead to qualitatively different and unexpected phenomena. While he focused on physics, one can find many examples of More is D... |
d167c566-d819-46cf-8fec-16084f09b8f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | “Betting on the Past” – a decision problem by Arif Ahmed
|
3be07dc9-fec5-4760-bb06-c947cac125a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing the Anthropic Fellows Program
We're launching the Anthropic Fellows Program for AI Safety Research, a pilot initiative designed to accelerate AI safety research and foster research talent. The program will provide funding and mentorship for a small cohort of 10-15 Fellows to work full-time on AI safety res... |
3c442757-adda-4842-a2b5-8084a68116aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for AI Art Collaborators!
Tldr.
Existential Hope is looking for generative AI-assisted art collaborators for our monthly content drop (which includes a podcast, our website, and a newsletter). These would be created via a monthly prompt in relation to the content of that month.
You can see prior art pieces... |
8a0bb2b2-4df4-4af0-8eca-00e38de107ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Attempt to Justify The Principle of Insufficient Reason (PIR)
|
9b1dc460-f593-4f69-b7cb-f0833402d9ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the universe all there is?
'Evidence' for objects outside the universe...
Introduction
One of the topics that seems to come up from time to time on Lesswrong is the supernatural vs a naturalistic explanation for the universe.
I felt that I could make a contribution to this discussion as a theoretical physicist ... |
e7c70bd8-fc66-44ae-99ae-c4dec329cd21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Book Review: AI Safety and Security
I just read Roman Yampolskiy's new 500-pages-multi-author anthology: [Artificial Intelligence Safety and Security](https://www.amazon.com/Artificial-Intelligence-Security-Chapman-Robotics/dp/0815369824) to get a comprehensive view of the field. Here is my attempt at reviewing the bo... |
77155bac-c152-41c6-b1be-16eaa73f764c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How important is AI hacking as LLMs advance?
TL;DR. Offensive technologies will likely become more advanced while the defense ones will lag behind. AI hacking capabilities might be the second most important problem after AI alignment.
Epistemic status: Exploratory / brainstorming.
How language models will a... |
f48a9406-73fe-41d3-b948-30ab58926b52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideal Advisor Theories and Personal CEV
Update 5-24-2013: A cleaned-up, citable version of this article is now available on MIRI's website.
Co-authored with crazy88
Summary: Yudkowsky's "coherent extrapolated volition" (CEV) concept shares much in common Ideal Advisor theories in moral philosophy. Does CEV fall prey... |
bf5ee95c-2f91-4bae-abf2-748ec9d2a9dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalists from the UK -- what are your thoughts on Dominic Cummings?
Dominic Cummings would I believe be considered at least rationalist-adjacent, and has recently been quite a prominent figure in the news. I'm curious to hear your thoughts both on the situation with him in general and also on how this has affected... |
16bd4d16-464e-4221-b03a-d9085ca812cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI deployment as an act of aggression
I started a draft of this post some days ago, but then a lot of things happened and so I'm rewriting it from scratch. Most importantly, a TIME editorial in which Eliezer Yudkowski talks of bombing AI training data centres happened, which pretty much both makes AI doom discourse f... |
5d24124b-eb81-4951-b7e6-103c0b0a417e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sunday Meetup at Buffalo Labs
Discussion article for the meetup : Sunday Meetup at Buffalo Labs
WHEN: 03 March 2013 04:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2727 Broadway Ave. Suite 210, Cheektowaga, NY
Hey everyone,
The next post linked in this series is "Focus you Uncertainty" ( http://lesswrong.com/lw/ia/focus_your_u... |
2f7086aa-500a-4396-8c85-4fd70f0b2e3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beyond 175 billion parameters: Can we anticipate future GPT-X Capabilities?
This question has been bothering me for months now:
This is because GPT-3, with 175 billion parameters, has been incredibly impressive and far better than GPT-2. If you follow me on YouTube, you already know I discovered it was capable of tok... |
ca803115-f494-458a-9a45-3edad496ca19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox
That is not dead which can eternal lie: the aestivation hypothesis for resolving Fermi's paradox
Anders Sandberg, Stuart Armstrong, Milan M. Cirkovic
If a civilization wants to maximize computation it appears rational to... |
80c82b5c-90dd-4844-9795-d8f5406b142a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Functional Side Effects
Cross Posted on By Way of Contradiction
You have probably heard the argument in favor of functional programming languages that functions act like functions in mathematics, and therefore have no side effects. When you call a function, you get an output, and with the exception of possibly the ru... |
a0714023-725b-480f-aa99-7afc7a8c4dd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why libertarians are advocating for regulation on AI
Motivation: some people on the internet seem confused about why libertarians (and others generally suspicious of government intervention) are advocating for regulation to help prevent x-risk from AI. The arguments here aren't novel and generally seem pretty obvious... |
8cb7664b-e4ff-4da1-a0da-a288a65af5b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI: Practical Advice for the Worried
Some people (although very far from all people) are worried that AI will wipe out all value in the universe.
Some people, including some of those same people, need practical advice.
A WORD ON THINKING FOR YOURSELF
There are good reasons to worry about AI. This includes good reas... |
c2c943db-8487-45d7-b1c8-9163fc55137e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2017 trend in the cost of computing
The cheapest hardware prices (for single precision FLOPS/$) appear to be falling by around an order of magnitude every 10-16 years. This rate is slower than the trend of FLOPS/$ observed over the past quarter century, which was an order of magnitude every 4 years. There is no partic... |
2bbe673a-3783-4bf2-b4ea-773058cc1844 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humor: GURPS Friendly AI
Found some hidden internet gold and thought I would share:
http://sl4.org/wiki/GurpsFriendlyAI
http://sl4.org/wiki/FriendlyAICriticalFailureTable
GurpsFriendlyAI
by EliezerYudkowsky
Characters in GURPS Friendly AI may learn three new skills, the AI skill (Mental / Hard), the Seed AI skill... |
bfa34808-3ef9-4bc1-8ac6-9bfb813f9d07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong sydney - Prediction gambles and location testing
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong sydney - Prediction gambles and location testing
WHEN: 03 May 2012 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 77 Liverpool Street, Sydney, Australia, Level 2
Hey everybody!
Apologies for the short notice on this meet... |
7a0bc6ab-6bb6-4483-bb03-f086aaa21936 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Investigating Fabrication
Note 1: This was originally published in 2021. I'm now re-publishing it in 2023 as the penultimate post in The Nuts and Bolts Of Naturalism, as a demonstration of the method. I intend to publish a collection of much-more-complete demonstrations in the future, and I plan for them to explicitly... |
18f4a77a-5be4-4e3a-b742-58fc5c7f96fd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Twelve Virtues of Rationality
The first virtue is curiosity. A burning itch to know is higher than a solemn vow to pursue truth. To feel the burning itch of curiosity requires both that you be ignorant, and that you desire to relinquish your ignorance. If in your heart you believe you already know, or if in your heart... |
ad7a723f-8948-4b51-840b-b15a042a3e49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Joint Configurations
The key to understanding configurations, and hence the key to understanding quantum mechanics, is realizing on a truly gut level that configurations are about more than one particle.
Continuing from the previous essay, Figure 1 shows an altered version of the experiment where we send in two photo... |
626e51f5-8536-42ef-ac11-66253d27afd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A brief guide to not getting downvoted
Important Question: does a guide like this already exist? I couldn't find one, but it's hard to believe there's no guide to not getting downvoted...Supposing there isn't, please give me suggestions on what such a guide needs, because I'm sort of just guessing here.
Edit: Found Y... |
781f3401-ac9f-4c23-b44f-cc02afd584b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Anti-Diarrhea Kits and the Supply Chain
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/making-medicine-as-easy-to-get-as-a-can-of-coke/
Diarrhea is a pervasive and deadly problem for children in poor countries. ORS (oral rehydration salts) are an effective safe cure, but clinics are sparsely distributed and f... |
2eb833ff-f09d-4b66-b1b3-bca9488d13a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The (Unofficial) Less Wrong Comment Challenge
Feedback is important. It's true in Machine Learning, and it's true in writing. So when you write a cool new post on LW, you generally hope for feedback. Positive feedback, fingers crossed, but good negative feedback is also very nice for improving your writing chops and y... |
c059fa9b-709c-427c-a13a-87318f830c67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nobody does the thing that they are supposedly doing
I feel like one of the most important lessons I’ve had about How the World Works, which has taken quite a bit of time to sink in, is:
In general, neither organizations nor individual people do the thing that their supposed role says they should do. Rather they tend... |
410c1743-8524-47fe-9545-d8afe6bf1e09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three preference frameworks for goal-directed agents
In the previous post, I discussed three different applications of a value learning model. In this post, I will go into more detail about value learning for goal-directed agents by discussing three possible preference frameworks for goal-directed agents.
These three... |
322399f0-c7e7-47d3-93e4-5595d9ec64e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 3. Two subsystems: Learning & Steering
(Last revised: October 2024. See changelog at the bottom.)
3.1 Post summary / Table of contents
Part of the “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series.
In the previous post I defined the notion of “learning from scratch” algorithms—a broad ca... |
690ba13f-b0a0-430e-854e-270380be13d6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | FLI podcast series, "Imagine A World", about aspirational futures with AGI
Last year, the Future of Life Institute organized the "[AI Worldbuilding Contest](https://worldbuild.ai/)", where they challenged competitors to envision a future where humanity has safely navigated the development of artificial general intelli... |
39779731-9fe3-4f26-b979-8d624a64a80f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An interesting mathematical model of how LLMs work
My colleague, Ramesh Viswanathan, sent this to me. It’s the most interesting thing I’ve seen on how transformers work. Alas, the math is beyond me, which is often then case, but there are diagrams early in the paper, and I understand them well enough (I think). It see... |
62481a83-4261-4fa7-94a4-2a7faacb2a69 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Word on Machine Ethics: A Response to Jiang et al. (2021)
1 Introduction
---------------
This paper offers a general critique of the machine learning task of computing moral and ethical decisions through a critical reading and audit of Jiang et al. ([2021](#bib.bib26)).$\*$$\*$footnotetext: Equal contribution. In... |
72676956-8747-4e1c-9fc3-02ccb421db41 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post582
The quality bar of this post is somewhat lower than that of our previous posts on control and this post is much more focused on specific details. This is particularly true about the appendices of this post. So, we only recommend reading for those who are quite interested in getting into the details of cont... |
46ccbee0-2ce7-4e84-9c9e-8dfab9aedf4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Media Bias
In the days following confirmed person-to-person transmission of COVID in the United States, my company went on Fox News to promote ourselves. What makes this otherwise bog-standard collusion between business and media interesting is our representative was a Marxist who knew COVID would be a disaster for th... |
568ceb65-ec27-4ce0-bad8-697551b126ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mindfulness Meditation Thread
Hi everybody,
There's been a bit of talk of Mindfulness meditation around. I am curious about this, because it looks like it might be practical advice backed by a deep theory.
Unfortunately, all the tutorials on mindfulness meditation seem to be semi-practical advice backed by totally b... |
3ddf129e-cd13-413a-90e8-c26bbb250fa1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Do You Quantify [Physics Interfacing] Real World Capabilities?
Disclaimer
Sorry for the length of this "question". The post in which I cover the preliminary context hasn't been published yet (4,000+ words and I'm < 40% through my outline).
Introduction
I have done some thinking of how one might quantify the ... |
598ccbfc-25b3-4579-baf5-f11810164753 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Formal Solution to the Inner Alignment Problem
We've written a [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.08686) on online imitation learning, and our construction allows us to bound the extent to which mesa-optimizers could accomplish anything. This is not to say it will definitely be easy to eliminate mesa-optimizers in pra... |
4d885a94-f798-4164-9a96-56608fe73a49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Management is the Near Future
Programmers have traditionally been contemptuous of management: if you're not writing code what are you even doing with your time? I picked this up through general culture, and I remember my instinctive shudder and recoil the first time my boss asked if I was interested in management. As ... |
42c1d9a3-a211-49d7-853e-696e9fcb3b8c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Misalignment and misuse: whose values are manifest?
*By Katja Grace, 18 November 2020, Crossposted from [world spirit sock puppet](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.com/).*
AI related disasters are often categorized as involving misaligned AI, or misuse, or accident. Where:
* misuse means the bad outcomes were wanted ... |
75b05ea9-47b6-4245-a87f-191d3c8650aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are our domains of expertise? A marketplace of insights and issues
We have recently obtained evidence that a number of people, some with quite interesting backgrounds and areas of expertise, find LessWrong an interesting read but find limited opportunities to contribute.
This post is an invitation to engage, in ... |
a0d15df5-54e1-472a-81c9-1bd3d9ea41d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Blog Post Against AI Doom
I'm curious as to what y'all think of the points made in this post against AI risk from 2 AI researchers at Princeton. If you have reason to think any points made are particularly good or bad, write it in the comments below! |
b5184132-27da-4633-8d2d-61a5aa662ca1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Working at MIRI: An interview with Malo Bourgon
[Cross-posted on the EA Forum]
This post is part of the Working At EA Organizations series on the EA Forum. The posts so far:
* Why work at an EA organization?
* 80000 Hours
* Effective Altruism Foundation
The Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) doe... |
8130f7a9-7c1c-4560-9c82-679a4293530f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help me with bayesian thinking re:coronavirus?
If I have a fever, what is the likelihood that I have a coronavirus infection? I'm actually less interested in the answer than in the underlying thought process, so feel free to insert variables where reliable numbers are hard to find.
I'm just having trouble thinking cl... |
a0262a3b-9f5f-404a-8fce-440ef60b9d68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science Isn't Strict Enough
Once upon a time, a younger Eliezer had a stupid theory. Eliezer18 was careful to follow the precepts of Traditional Rationality that he had been taught; he made sure his stupid theory had experimental consequences. Eliezer18 professed, in accordance with the virtues of a scientist he had... |
8b0ac76e-a345-475a-8139-8741704030a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chaotic Inversion
I was recently having a conversation with some friends on the topic of hour-by-hour productivity and willpower maintenance—something I've struggled with my whole life.
I can avoid running away from a hard problem the first time I see it (perseverance on a timescale of seconds), and I can stick to th... |
ef1f9662-9e51-4fd6-9309-e3c75cf9ca93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preventing atherosclerosis, the easiest way to improve your life expectancy?
Disclaimer: I’m not a doctor or specialized in this topic in any way.
Summary: Atherosclerosis is the number one cause of death and disability in the developed world. A large part might be preventable with lifestyle changes, medication and s... |
74e47a64-6076-426e-94bc-bb9295fd43e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London Meetup, 10th Feb
Discussion article for the meetup : London Meetup, 10th Feb
WHEN: 10 February 2013 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Holborn, London
A meetup in the Shakespeare's Head pub by Holborn tube station. Everyone is welcome. We also have a Google group. The topic for this meetup is personal organi... |
f5419f30-8f54-4cb2-ad07-22baee713464 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 119
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 119.
Plans for next chapter release:
> Ch. 120 will post on... |
6d3a7724-b892-4df4-a208-95f2cb268282 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple web app to create aversion to unhealthy food
At a startup camp weekend, I've made this (incredibly sketchy, amateurish) app (NSFW) which implements classical conditioning to create a negative response to candy, smoking, or meat.
After using it intensively for about a day while writing it, I certainly feel di... |
ecb7922e-e652-41c8-8fe5-ce4b00d52c07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theory with F@#!ed-Up Reference Classes
Before we can answer the question of what ought you do, we need to identify exactly what agents are referred to by you. In some problems, you refers to only a single, easily identifiable agent with actions providing deterministic results, but in other problems many agen... |
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