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92e1936e-d9c0-4a89-9956-fef93b72f3d6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AXRP Episode 14 - Infra-Bayesian Physicalism with Vanessa Kosoy
[Google Podcasts link](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9heHJwb2RjYXN0LmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/YjI2MDQ0YTUtYjAyMy00YmI3LWE3MWMtYmFhMTU3MmM4MzJl)
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast... |
37f4892e-245a-448b-a3b1-c1c527b20197 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Encultured AI Pre-planning, Part 1: Enabling New Benchmarks
*Also available on the* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/yczkGfcfWoRN6zfrf/encultured-ai-part-1-enabling-new-benchmarks)*.*
*Followed by:* [*Encultured AI, Part 2*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2vxoTfuScspraSJeC/encultured-ai-part-... |
3df4ad95-82d2-4ecc-8b58-da54683ae6d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Spreading messages to help with the most important century
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
In the [most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/) series, I argued that the 21st century could be the most important century ever for humani... |
f58d91d7-76e5-4471-b6a8-b36e0e006418 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SingInst bloomberg coverage [link]
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/12/19/BUFU1MD58T.DTL&type=printable |
429460e9-69e7-4265-9163-ad5381f9c3e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reference Classes in the Doomsday Argument
I accidentally deleted my article titled "Reference Classes in the Doomsday Argument." There were some really thoughtful replies, and I sincerely apologize to everyone who commented. I'm new here and new to web forums in general, and I thought that I was deleting my saved dra... |
2a7b1fcb-01b0-43d8-b443-8ff07f40234c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which possible AI systems are relatively safe?
Presumably some kinds of AI systems, architectures, methods, and ways of building complex systems out of ML models are safer or more alignable than others. Holding capabilities constant, you'd be happier to see some kinds of systems than others.
For example, Paul Christi... |
54d51e05-17cd-48c9-bcae-dfac6fb92ea8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Austin, TX
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX
WHEN: 20 August 2011 01:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2222B Guadalupe St Austin, Texas 78705
I'm back after missing three meetups! I hope you'll be there. Once again, at Caffe Medici, starting at 1:30PM.
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX |
5ad41ceb-7a03-4354-a931-15716df8be84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Was a PhD necessary to solve outstanding math problems?
My composition teacher in college told me that in some pottery schools, the teacher holds up your pot, examines it, comments on it, and then smashes it on the floor. They do this for your first 100 pots.
In that spirit, this post's epistemic status is SMASH THIS... |
ccdc69ac-c695-4856-8ce6-1067a73419cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What "upside" of AI?
Consider, first, what humanity would want some aligned AGI to do, were it obtained? Set aside details, and let's suppose, in the main, we want (not instruct, just want) AGI to "make our lives better." (Too, AGI could "make us more productive," but if what is produced is bad, let us suppose we do n... |
4dba8c98-99a8-4486-8d60-24946804e6c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anti-epistemology: an explanation
While there are more than a hundred thousand words on LW about the structure of good epistemology, as far as I can tell there is no nuts-and-bolts explanation of the most common anti-epistemology. I will try to rectify this omission, because I think I comprehended it.
The prototypica... |
312d0c87-9de2-4bd5-82a8-1e160412f016 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Safety Culture for AI" is important, but isn't going to be easy
This is a linkpost (to the EA forum version of this post, which is) for a new preprint, entitled "Building a Culture of Safety for AI: Perspectives and Challenges," and a brief explanation of the central points. Comments on the ideas in the post are welc... |
ec97aa8b-baa4-45f3-bdd9-94d179ffc49b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang, Part 2
In [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang I made technical predictions without much explanation. In this post I explain my reasoning. This prediction is contingent on there not being a WWIII or equivalent disaster disrupting semiconductor fabrication.
---... |
5ccd8049-a0b0-4b98-9478-6baf447ea3ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What AI Posts Do You Want Distilled?
I'd like to distill AI Safety posts and papers, and I'd like to see more distillations generally. Ideally, posts and papers would meet the following criteria:
* Potentially high-impact for more people to understand
* Uses a lot of jargon or is generally complex and difficult to ... |
c395aa6b-de35-4a5e-9ffc-8e9d2da3ada1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How many humans could potentially live on Earth over its entire future?
(Or person-years if we assume greatly extended life). How many years could the Earth be habitable for?
|
9a667b11-cd1e-4139-b811-c09f8caba57a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Man's Search for Meaning by Victor Frankel
(Oops, I meant this to be a shortform)
"Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way"
“He who has a why to live for can bear almost any how.”... |
8f70dcc3-a0a7-4718-a1d9-ced591cecd17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Type-safeness in Shell
Since writing the post on a hypothetical hull language as an alternative to shell I cannot stop thinking about the shortcomings of shell.
And one think that comes to mind over and over is type-safeness. Shell treats everything as a string and that's the source of both its power and its poor mai... |
4818b4af-6fb4-4198-9495-0f8bd2db8bbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Offer of collaboration and/or mentorship
UPDATE: Offer of mentorship is closed, since I received sufficiently many candidates for now. Offer of collaboration remains open for experienced researchers (i.e. researchers that (i) have some track record of original math / theoretical compsci research, and (ii) are able to ... |
fcb69c90-3005-4f43-a871-b2c9e2084ecc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impact, agency, and taste
I’ve been thinking recently about what sets apart the people who’ve done the best work at Anthropic.
You might think that the main thing that makes people really effective at research or engineering is technical ability, and among the general population that’s true. Among people hired at Ant... |
348f699b-e503-4951-8c79-2b2475dad6fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Circularity
Note: I wrote a better article about this; you should read that instead of this stub: The Problem of the Criterion.
I've previously argued for the existence of what I've called a "free variable" in epistemology that forces a choice between ways of knowing because no one way of knowing (system of... |
cc652e72-b80c-4aca-9ee7-92d847588ead | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Safe are Uploads?
I have encountered the argument that safe brain uploads are as hard as friendly AI. In particular, this is offered as justification for focusing on the development of FAI rather than spending energy trying to make sure WBE (or an alternative based on stronger understanding of the brain) comes fir... |
b9d850ca-08a6-40a5-86d4-53436a8d55dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You can't beat a troll by predicting it.
My trollability post showed that any computable probability distribution on logic which updates on proofs in a Bayesian way can in principle be manipulated into nearly-arbitrary beliefs by an adversary. (At least, this is true in my GLS-based treatment, and in a version which u... |
1d0139ef-1f92-4e1c-83ad-e29ff79601d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Illusion of Simplicity: Monetary Policy as a Problem of Complexity and Alignment
“There is nothing scarier than ignorance put into action” — Goethe
A common mistake in economic analysis is to consider that any type of “desequilibrium” in an economy can be solved through a simple government intervention. However... |
f16d22ea-006c-4016-b01e-dfc9a32a93ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asches to Asches
[Content note: fictional story contains gaslighting-type elements. May induce Cartesian skepticism]
You wake up in one of those pod things like in The Matrix. There’s a woman standing in front of you, wearing a lab coat, holding a clipboard.
“Hi,” she says. “This is the real world. You used to live ... |
1a994a5a-28ec-4f21-b9db-89398167a1c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Saint Petersburg, Russia
Discussion article for the meetup : Saint Petersburg, Russia
WHEN: 27 October 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Санкт-Петербург, м. Технологический Институт, ул.1-я Красноармейская, дом 15
Come to the (probably) first in a long time meetup in St.Petersburg!
It will be located in cafe... |
3be2cec7-0924-4d12-97e6-75bf913ecc4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Apology is a Surrender
[Epistemic Status: This post is aimed at people who've hurt loved ones by trying to fast talk their way out of apologies; remember the law of equal and opposite advice. A different version of this post, with examples drawn from responses to #MeToo, previously appeared on my blog.]
When news ... |
87b1357c-637b-4b89-9d18-59105c7ff293 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Brussels, Chicago, Dorset, Fort Lauderdale, London, Melbourne, Pittsburgh, Shanghai, Sydney, Twin Cities
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Brussels meetup: 14 April 2012 11:00AM
* First Dorset UK Meetup: 14 April 2012 03:00PM
* Fort Lauderdale: 14 April 2012 06:00... |
3acf0c8b-dd98-41d2-8dc0-651348b8826e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comparing Sparse Autoencoder Features from Individual and Combined Datasets
Abstract
With the growing prevalence of large language models (LLMs), explainable AI (XAI) is a concern for all. A growing field of XAI is mechanistic interpretability. One method of mechanistic interpretability is the use of sparse autoencode... |
56713faa-81d5-408b-a664-47247b1a4b46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on Zero Points
There’s a cool concept I’ve been thinking about. I first heard of it when reading Jesse Schell’s book “The Art of Game Design”. (Fun fact: Jesse Schell was my professor’s professor, aka my grand-professor.)
Then I heard of it again in the LessWrong post “Choosing the Zero Point”. Having been e... |
d49bc7ec-8fc9-4009-abbb-383bdf97c5b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we inside a black hole?
Epistemic status: Wildly speculative. I am not a physicist. It may quickly become apparent that I have no idea what I'm talking about. Nevertheless, I found the thought experiment interesting.
The set of models known as superstring theory posits the existence of multiple compactified di... |
12a572af-14e5-4891-a8d8-04e3288537a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why do People Think Intelligence Will be "Easy"?
In many discussions I've hard with people around AI takeoff, I've frequently encountered a belief that intelligence is going to be "easy".
To quantify what I mean by "easy", many people seem to expect that the *marginal* returns on cognitive investment (whether vi... |
fc2fdc92-595e-4a9e-9075-f58a323b80be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-administered EMDR without a therapist is very useful for a lot of things!
EMDR (Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing) therapy is a structured therapy that encourages the patient to focus briefly on a traumatic memory while simultaneously experiencing bilateral stimulation (typically eye movements, but al... |
6b776352-e633-47ce-9b97-f4842d38b816 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | David Chalmers' "The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis"
David Chalmers is a leading philosopher of mind, and the first to publish a major philosophy journal article on the singularity:
Chalmers, D. (2010). "The Singularity: A Philosophical Analysis." Journal of Consciousness Studies 17:7-65.
Chalmers' article is... |
01bc5f54-85ea-4541-a5fc-0c2bbdbe2ce3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is "hedonium"?
**Hedonium** (also known as **orgasmium**) is a homogeneous substance with limited consciousness, which is in a constant state of supreme bliss. An AI programmed to "maximize happiness" might simply tile the universe with hedonium. Some who believe this consider it a good thing; others do not. Thos... |
8a5e4bce-6b4c-4a90-9efc-a32becd10fc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where I currently disagree with Ryan Greenblatt’s version of the ELK approach
Context: This post is my attempt to make sense of Ryan Greenblatt's research agenda, as of April 2022. I understand Ryan to be heavily inspired by Paul Christiano, and Paul left some comments on early versions of these notes.
Two separate t... |
1f2f3d94-ac00-4dbb-980e-e366c5836e63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conjunction Fallacy
The following experiment has been slightly modified for ease of blogging. You are given the following written description, which is assumed true:
> Bill is 34 years old. He is intelligent, but unimaginative, compulsive, and generally lifeless. In school, he was strong in mathematics but weak in... |
2dce403d-6bf8-498c-8209-e84ef6a024ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Small Talk is Good, Actually
You all liked the last two, so I'm going to keep it going so long as I have ideas and time. This is another casual post in the spirit of what I wish someone had told me when I was younger.
Some people really hate small talk. I never really did. Mostly small talk just confused me or I bare... |
5d455f33-c0b7-45f6-b704-b7f5d480e443 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Illiteracy in Silicon Valley
Sam Altman xeeted on Friday, "i think this is gonna be more like the renaissance than the industrial revolution."
The prediction, of course, is following to the common misconception of history in which the renaissance was a glorious rebirth of classical high civilization. The truth, reall... |
c939e2ee-4b53-4a01-b3c8-d5fc26463b4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
A Gentle Introduction on How to Use Anki to Improve Your Memory
This article was initially published in Superpowered Self, but after reading, and very much enjoying, TurnTrout's Lessons I've Learned from Self-Teaching I figured people would find this introduction I've written to Anki for complete beginners valuable.
... |
717beefb-044b-49ce-afb1-2487d92c2c98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RAISE AI Safety prerequisites map entirely in one post
After reflecting on recent criticism, all RAISE projects have been discontinued, and a postmortem is in our plans. (Update: the postmortem is here) One of those projects was the AI Safety prerequisites online course originally announced here. We're sharing the cur... |
345a5ef4-2909-46a0-9e98-ec6dec686488 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using LLM's for AI Foundation research and the Simple Solution assumption
Current LLM based AI systems are getting pretty good at maths by writing formal proofs in Lean or similar. https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/
So, how can we use these models to help align AI?
T... |
eef01f3a-9f72-4bd4-a22d-be55d8c8ead8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Taxonomy of Jobs Deeply Resistant to TAI Automation
This is a light, informal taxonomy of jobs that conceptually will display significant resistance to automation, even after the diffusion of transformative AI systems that can outperform humans in all forms of cognitive and physical labor.
This is intended to prov... |
cbcaa924-98d5-433d-8fcc-630b9deba386 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding-1-2-3
Epistemic Status: Seems worth sharing
Assumes Knowledge Of: System 1 and System 2 from Thinking, Fast and Slow
While in San Francisco this past week, I found myself in many complex and rapid conversations, with new ideas and concepts flying by the second. I hadn’t experienced this since least Feb... |
7c42de8e-0847-4748-86a9-bfbddc7b01ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deliberate Practice for Decision Making
Much of this material is sourced/summarized from Deliberate Performance: Accelerating Expertise in Natural Settings and “The Power of Intuition”. Both contain much more than what is written here. An earlier draft/version of this was posted as "Productive Use of Heuristics and Bi... |
004398f2-2baf-4ae1-a9e2-33ff4ae2576a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Literature on How to Maximize Preferences
What mainstream academic literature should I look at in order to better think through questions like "In order to maximize my preferences to what extent should I invest time in better understanding my goals?", "To the extent that question 1 indicates that this is important, ho... |
e246489e-55f6-472d-a6d5-c6bc0de9ac4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Carl Zimmer on mind uploading
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=e-zimmer-can-you-live-forever
I realize he Zimmer is "just a popular author" (a pretty good one IMO), so filing this under "cultural penetration of singularity memes" |
be2b7679-e9ed-436b-83f4-1c424e5288bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The AI Timelines Scam
[epistemic status: that's just my opinion, man. I have highly suggestive evidence, not deductive proof, for a belief I sincerely hold]
*"If you see fraud and do not say fraud, you are a fraud."* --- [Nasim Taleb](https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb)
I was talking with a collea... |
9ed74273-673b-4d16-8cf8-b844dfdb0fe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpretability
Chris Olah wrote the following topic prompt for the Open Phil 2021 request for proposals on the alignment of AI systems. We (Asya Bergal and Nick Beckstead) are running the Open Phil RFP and are posting each section as a sequence on the Alignment Forum. Although Chris wrote this document, we didn’t wa... |
42686c09-b221-4a16-b397-73517ccb1e75 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Game-theoretic Alignment in terms of Attainable Utility
### Acknowledgements:
This article is a writeup of research conducted through the [SERI](https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/stanford-existential-risks-initiative/content/stanford-existential-risks-initiative) program under the mentorship of [Alex Turner](https://www... |
1367e920-e14e-4bfa-863b-f59ff6bb7e59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Follow-Up to Petrov Day, 2019
Hurrah! Success! I didn't know what to expect, and am pleasantly surprised to find the Frontpage is still intact. My thanks to everyone who took part, to everyone who commented on yesterday's post, and to everyone who didn't unilaterally blow up the site.
Launch Attempts Results
I said ... |
7878aa25-a550-4963-b8fc-2242b8fcbd6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Avoiding Side Effects By Considering Future Tasks
1 Introduction
---------------
Designing reward functions for a reinforcement learning agent is often a difficult task. One of the most challenging aspects of this process is that in addition to specifying what to do to complete a task, the reward function also need... |
2ea72919-4876-4bfa-a798-63f974e96590 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Clustering and the efficient use of cognitive resources..
JournalofMathematicalPsychology109(2022)102675
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
JournalofMathematicalPsychology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jmp
TheoreticalNote
Clusteringandtheefficientuseofcognitiveresources
IshitaDasguptaa,∗,ThomasL.Gri... |
5d4f6d8a-6aad-4385-8453-736c1c3c29f9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What considerations influence whether I have more influence over short or long timelines?
As my TAI timelines have been shortening, I've been rethinking my priorities. As have many of my colleagues. It occurs to us that there are probably general considerations that should cause us to weight towards short-timelines pl... |
8d9bb5b2-5256-4ceb-b4a5-5141a8656dc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you decide to phrase predictions you ask of others? (and how do you make your own?)
I'd like your practical advice and learned experience: how do you go about phrasing predictions when you ask people "Is X going to happen?" - in order to get answers that reflect the actual thing you're trying to get a read on?
... |
111d1c7e-9dde-44ed-bf8b-5784d9bfda1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to take smart notes (Ahrens, 2017)
This is my rephrasing of (Ahrens, 2017, How to Take Smart Notes). I added some personal comments.
The amazing note-taking method of Luhmann
To be more productive, it's necessary to have a good system and workflow. The Getting Things Done system (collect everything that needs to... |
17608691-5b38-46a8-bc67-fba41bf6f88e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forum Weekly Summary (6th - 12th March 2023)
This is part of a weekly series summarizing the top posts on the EA and LW forums - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology. Feedback, thoughts, and corrections are welcomed.
If you'd like to receive the... |
f0619f51-2d23-426d-997c-e394aa42bf05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formative Youth
Followup to: Against Maturity
"Rule of thumb: Be skeptical of things you learned before you could read. E.g., religion."
-- Ben Casnocha
Looking down on others is fun, and if there's one group we adults can all enjoy looking down on, it's children. At least I assume this is one of the dri... |
05eeb2e9-0ff1-4934-a39c-e1640bfc28d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper: On measuring situational awareness in LLMs
This post is a copy of the introduction of this paper on situational awareness in LLMs.
Authors: Lukas Berglund, Asa Cooper Stickland, Mikita Balesni, Max Kaufmann, Meg Tong, Tomasz Korbak, Daniel Kokotajlo, Owain Evans.
Abstract
We aim to better understand the em... |
bdadeae1-4290-4e97-8641-8216edac005b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | True Ending: Sacrificial Fire (7/8)
(Part 7 of 8 in "Three Worlds Collide")
Standing behind his target, unnoticed, the Ship's Confessor had produced from his sleeve the tiny stunner - the weapon which he alone on the ship was authorized to use, if he made a determination of outright mental breakdown. With a sudden mo... |
fac182ab-d05f-4ba5-a7b4-9d4b153589a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decoherence is Falsifiable and Testable
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
The words “falsifiable” and “testable” are sometimes used interchangeably, which imprecision is the price of speaking in English. There are two different probability-theoretic qualities I wish to discuss here, and I will refer to one as “falsifiable” and t... |
9185e290-9d61-4db6-a6f0-d93671b9da47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Untangling Infrabayesianism: A redistillation [PDF link; ~12k words + lots of math]
[Epistemic status: improved redistillation of the infrabayesianism sequence.]
So you want to understand infrabayesianism, to hack to the center of that thorny wood and seek out and recover any treasures hidden there? You've come to... |
a7331aca-cbd0-47f8-bb8c-e60f690c56bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I Think the Current Trajectory of AI Research has Low P(doom) - LLMs
[This is mostly posted as a some thoughts I wanted to check. I apologize that its messy and not complete. I needed to get something out there.]
This post explains the reasons why I think the probability of AGI killing everyone in the next few d... |
439276c4-68b9-43bf-8275-5d7d0df1f402 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Competitive safety via gradated curricula
Epistemic status: brainstorming some speculative research directions. Not trying to thoroughly justify the claims I’m making.
One way to think about the AI safety problem: there’s a spectrum of methods which each represent a different tradeoff between safety and ease of train... |
73747383-af76-47a9-8aa3-3df73850cd6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open & Welcome Thread - July 2022
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it.
If you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community are invited.... |
95aaec25-4038-40f9-8c44-0c7f2ac2ff7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Opinions on having a stronger preference or an open preference
I am wondering; and the answer seems unclear to me.
All day; every day of our lives we are presented with choice moments; What to eat; which way to turn; which clock to look at to best tell the time, what colour clothing to wear, where to walk; what to... |
e06f0232-d7c3-4edd-a6ac-8ddfb3d15cbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploitation and cooperation in ecology, government, business, and AI
Ecology
An article in a recent issue of Science (Elisa Thebault & Colin Fontaine, "Stability of ecological communities and the architecture of mutualistic and trophic networks", Science 329, Aug 13 2010, p. 853-856; free summary here) studies 2 kind... |
8a2a3252-8739-4a32-82a0-c2c79055fa37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steering LLMs' Behavior with Concept Activation Vectors
Recently, some researches have reported a mechanism called Activation Steering, which can influence the behavior styles of large language models (LLMs). This mainly includes refusal capabilities [1] and language usage [2]. This mechanism resembles the functionali... |
2f3cf72d-ea06-4f95-a6ac-75c45bb857fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UK AISI: Early lessons from evaluating frontier AI systems
> This blog sets out our thinking to date on how to design and run third-party evaluations, including key elements to consider and open questions. This is not intended to provide robust recommendations; rather we want to start a conversation in the open about ... |
ed27e6d3-24ba-40a4-bca5-6ff030058ddc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI doesn't need understanding, intention, or consciousness in order to kill us, only intelligence
Why the development of artificial general intelligence could be the most dangerous new arms race since nuclear weapons
The rise of transformer-based architectures, such as ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion, has brought us on... |
48d93603-2ab8-4e93-a3c4-af91d7914f09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Lectures by Olle Häggström on AI risk and long-term AI safety, part 1
right
most welcome everybody to this lecture
series on
ai risk and long-term ai safety
uh by now we all know how to handle zoom
i guess and i think that when we are uh
as many people in the room as we are now
it's good that
everyone makes up the spe... |
bd360f3a-ea2a-472d-9576-5bc6a526aa5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Brussels - Mindfulness and mental habits
Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels - Mindfulness and mental habits
WHEN: 10 January 2015 01:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Rue des Alexiens 55 1000 Bruxelles
LessWrong has been a bit quiet of late, partly because some of its best would-be contributors have focused... |
8f00230d-3607-4afd-8e35-d5a62aedf4b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Research sprint] Single-model crosscoder feature ablation and steering
This work was done as a research sprint while interviewing for UK AISI — it’s just a preliminary look into the topic, but I hope it will be useful for anyone else interested in the same ideas. Thanks to Joseph Bloom for helpful comments and sugges... |
cf75630b-5fcf-4e75-af37-af68a67b25e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Reflections on the PIBBSS Fellowship 2022
*Cross-posted from* [*LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gbeyjALdjdoCGayc6/reflections-on-the-pibbss-fellowship-2022) *and the* [*Alignment Forum*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/gbeyjALdjdoCGayc6/reflections-on-the-pibbss-fellowship-2022)
Last summer, we ran t... |
c939ebf6-89a1-41c9-9c6e-0f4a96347bd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making alignment a law of the universe
[Crossposted from my substack Working Through AI. I'm pretty new to writing about AI safety, so if you have any feedback I would appreciate it if you would leave a comment. If you'd rather do so anonymously, I have a feedback form.]
----------------------------------------
TLDR... |
3e4779a6-b3f7-49eb-9ee0-01f93aa59f1d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Using AI/ML to gain situational understanding from passive network observations
I Introduction
---------------
Almost all buildings in any government, military or commercial enterprise today operate using a network which communicates using the Internet Protocol [[8](#bib.bib1 "Internet protocol specification")]. Th... |
9dfd1f47-fb2b-46a8-a4fe-2677aaf3f89a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Failure By Analogy
Today's post, Failure By Analogy was originally published on 18 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> It's very tempting to reason that your invention X will do Y, because it is similar to thing Z, which also does Y. But reality very often ignores this justification fo... |
f47f95f0-afcc-4949-9ed9-b949de629c51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Four Motivations for Learning Normativity
I have been pretty satisfied with my desiderata for learning normativity, but I haven't been very satisfied with my explanation of why exactly these desiderata are important. I have a sense that it's not just a grab-bag of cool stuff; something about trying to do all those thi... |
7e37c019-ad51-4360-90c5-f9b7c8514824 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From Paperclips to Bombs: The Evolution of AI Risk Discourse on LessWrong
Overview of the paper
In this paper, we set out to empirically map the evolution of the AI risk discourse on LessWrong, specifically in response to the public releases of ChatGPT and GPT-4. These events represented a significant shift, moving a... |
afe2c020-c914-4d24-aa47-c47a12e33550 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post859
tl;dr A one-dimensional PCA projection of OpenAI's text-embedding-ada-002 achieves 73.7% accuracy on the ETHICS Util test dataset. This is comparable with the 74.6% accuracy of BERT-large finetuned on the entire ETHICS Util training dataset . This demonstrates how language models are developing implicit re... |
eac9f5ec-821c-4902-98b3-f4511f09e7fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Favorite colors of some LLMs.
This investigation is inspired by this and this posts by @davidad.
Some general thoughts about what is going on here:
* Motivation of these experiments is like very exploratory, I wanted to understand these things better and so I collected some data.
* I expected that answers will be ... |
a8a879c8-9125-4395-8ee4-0993603c3855 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you conduct a personal study retreat?
I'm planning a study retreat this week and building my structure based on this comment, but it would be useful to hear from others who have done this before.
Here are a few questions I'd like answers to, but really free-form answers on anything you consider important is us... |
f38350cb-1ebd-4905-a0a3-de2e152ea2a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Retrospective on the AI Safety Field Building Hub
Overview
--------
In late July I posted [Announcing the AI Safety Field Building Hub, a new effort to provide AISFB projects, mentorship, and funding](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ozm4SpiChfAAAGnw5/announcing-the-ai-safety-field-building-hub-a-new-effort-... |
2d59707f-f489-4132-96d7-0c54284aee52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speculations Concerning the First Free-ish Prediction Market
Suppose Kalshi launches their cool new prediction marketplace soon, and it attracts a large userbase with high trading volume, and it doesn’t get shut down or strangled with red tape. What then?
Speculations
* Replication markets will mitigate some of the... |
be978682-f79e-4e14-8b17-1475149405a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Putting Logarithmic-Quality Scales On Time
From my journal. Originally posted on my personal blog. Status: quite speculative, but there's something here.
***
Hmm.
We could probably put a -5 to +5 scale of behavior together that was logarithmic about the enduring good/bad impact of various activities.
Something tot... |
c3125bb5-19fd-4ac6-b140-3deed481aca3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hazing as Counterfactual Mugging?
In the interest of making decision theory problems more relevant, I thought I'd propose a real-life version of counterfactual mugging. This is discussed in Drescher's Good and Real, and many places before. I will call it the Hazing Problem by comparison to this practice (possibly NS... |
88df6e5c-d8f0-41cb-9e57-8abe12f1149f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any Christians Here?
I’m currently atheist; my deconversion was quite the unremarkable event. September 2015 (I discovered HPMOR in February and RAZ then or in March), I was doing research on logical fallacies to better argue my points for a manga forum, when I came across Rational Wiki; for several of the logical fal... |
4c817554-7515-4cf6-a8f4-17900f97e0f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solution to the two envelopes problem for moral weights
Summary
When taking expected values, the results can differ radically based on which common units we fix across possibilities. If we normalize relative to the value of human welfare, then other animals will tend to be prioritized more than by normalizing by the v... |
8b39ee72-50a1-457a-8efa-abc49311930d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Games Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Games Discussion
WHEN: 09 October 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to talk about games and game-related topics.
Upcoming mee... |
d6b55701-ce0b-48ec-927a-a1e1283f48ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On writing like a butterfly
I thought it would be interesting to try to write my review of the Diving Bell and the Butterfly in my head without setting pen to paper until the end, and to convey at least some of it by blinking, since I find the fact that the author wrote the whole book in this way astonishing. Perhaps ... |
fdee7c95-c210-4599-af24-0620252b5838 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Device Placement Optimization with Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Over the past few years, neural networks have proven to be a general and
effective tool for many practical problems, such as image
classification (Krizhevsky et al., [2012](#bib.bib26); Szegedy et al., [2015](#bib.bib35); He et... |
283eb0ac-0b7c-419b-a9d7-082f5e386cca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research speedruns
The 'research speedrun' is a format that I've been playing with on my blog for the last year or so. It's been more popular than I expected and it looks like there's a lot more that could be done with the idea. So I thought I'd write it up here and see if anyone else wants to experiment with it thems... |
9f65755a-943c-4440-ace0-7db0e201db99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Hiking in Vancouver, Canada
Discussion article for the meetup : Hiking in Vancouver, Canada
WHEN: 09 August 2011 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Grouse Mountain, British Columbia, Canada
We're hiking at Grouse Mountain on Tuesday evening from 6:30pm. The best way to get there seems to be taking the seabus to Nor... |
f8e2774d-e306-4b5d-a0db-6798c57129dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting
The following is slightly edited from a pitch I wrote for a general audience. I've added blog-specific content afterwards.
----------------------------------------
Information technology allows for unprecedented levels of collaboration and deba... |
e4aa1c11-8e18-40c9-bedf-7ff01de2d18e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SAE sparse feature graph using only residual layers
Does it make sense to extract sparse feature graph for a behavior from only residual layers of gpt2 small or do we need all mlp and attention as well? |
1a1b995e-4d4f-4d12-b580-34c280db40dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quotes from the Stargate press conference
Present alongside President Trump:
* Sam Altman (who President Trump introduces as "by far the leading expert" on AI)
* Larry Ellison (Oracle executive chairman and CTO)
* Masayoshi Son (Softbank CEO who believes he was born to realize ASI)
> President Trump: What we wan... |
41c8cad9-5367-435b-9825-922b3071d728 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Forecasting Dictionary (Forecasting infrastructure, part 1)
*This post introduces the [AI Forecasting Dictionary](https://parallel-forecast.github.io/AI-dict/), an open-source set of standards and conventions for precisely interpreting AI and auxiliary terms. It is the first part in a series of blog posts which mot... |
63c22e32-a57d-4e89-82f5-69cdfda8c9ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social status games might have "compute weight class" in the future
(Note: I don't think "social status games" are bad, although I think it's usually not healthy/helpful to focus on them as "social status games qua games." i.e. I have some motivation to be good at telling fun stories at parties, or write music that pe... |
b14adb07-a889-402d-9ad9-959b926f44ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Can't Write Good Fiction
When Deepseek came out, there was a lot of fanfare about it being good at creative writing. I like AI and I love creative writing, so I decided to give it a spin. Specifically, I told Deepseek to do its best to write a story that might get accepted at Smokelong, one of the best flash fictio... |
a74fc623-2bc7-4aa0-bb04-28535b1347da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | -
- |
04a23449-e53b-4f88-9f06-273602a1cc32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the causality effects of an agents presence in a reinforcement learning environment
Suppose we have an agent A trying to optimise for a reward R in an environment S.
How can we tell that the presence of the agent does not affect the environment and the measurement(observation) is not only subject to the agen... |
08112c2a-69ca-4d23-bee1-b2de705ba3b2 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(This post was co-authored by me (Cody Wild), Tessa Alexanian and Ray Arnold)TL;DR We have 2 days - until July 1 - to increase monthly donations by $2260 or raise $27,000 in lump sum , or else REACH will lose its current location and go on indefinite hiatusDo you care about the Berkeley REACH staying open? Has an open... |
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