| # CREATION-LOG — track-record |
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| ## Packaging fix — 2026-07-18 |
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| - Drafted a Claude Code manifest so `claude plugin validate` can discover the package. *(Note: that manifest lives in the not-yet-published packaging workspace and is **not** part of this release — do not look for a `.claude-plugin` directory in what you installed; the release ships the root `plugin.json` as the package manifest.)* |
| - Retained root `plugin.json` as a compatibility mirror for existing skill-package consumers. Both manifests carry identical metadata, and the operative skill entry remains root `SKILL.md` for both packaging paths. |
| - This is packaging-only; no behavior fixture or pressure test was run or newly marked PASS. |
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| ## Phase 2 contract layer — 2026-07-18 |
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|
| > **Not published in this repo.** The artefacts listed below were drafted during the |
| > 2026-07-18 contract-layer pass and deliberately kept internal. None of them ship with |
| > this skill, and you will not find them in a clone. They are recorded here for |
| > provenance only. |
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|
| - Drafted an evidence-bearing agent-modpack component manifest, a schema-pinned structural |
| runner, and a machine-readable ledger-entry schema with positive/negative fixtures. |
| **Unpublished** — which is why item 5 of the v1.0.0 notes below (*Zero executable code |
| shipped*) still holds for anything you actually receive. |
| - Drafted `SK-TR-P-001` and `SK-TR-N-001` as independently executable case specifications. |
| **Unpublished**, and both remain `not-run`; static validation is not behavior evidence. |
|
|
| > Convention: keep the forging history in the repo. For a calibration skill this is not decoration — the log below includes the design's own bets, written in the skill's own ledger format. If the discipline is any good, it should survive being applied to itself. |
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| ## v1.0.0 (2026-07) — initial forge |
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| ### Design inputs (public sources) |
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| - **claude-improve** — signal taxonomy and the promotion ladder (memory → rule → prominent rule → enforced hook). Also a cautionary tale: its own docs shipped inconsistent promotion thresholds in two places, which is why this skill defines every numeric threshold exactly once (SKILL.md, threshold table) and references it everywhere else. |
| - **claude-reflect** — confidence-tiered actions (HIGH/MED/LOW bound to different permissions) and false-positive filters for user-message signals; fingerprint-and-count for "same pattern recurring". |
| - **Tetlock & Gardner, _Superforecasting_** (commandments) — triage to the Goldilocks zone; outside view before inside view; replace vague verbiage with numeric probabilities; balanced under/overreaction; don't treat the commandments as dogma. |
| - **Calibration-training practice** (Hubbard-style interval training) — a fixed fast-feedback probability tier lets a beginner accumulate calibration signal quickly with small samples. |
| - **Stateless outcome-grader pattern** — the settler sees only the artifact and the standard, never the author's explanations; unmatchable standards are marked unsettleable, not force-graded. |
| - **The superpowers school of discipline-writing** — rationalization tables with verbatim excuses, red-flag phrases, violation symptoms, and the meta-principle that violating the letter is violating the spirit; plus the convention of shipping a CREATION-LOG. |
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| ### Design input (anonymized, internal) |
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| A ledger prototype ran ~3 weeks and accumulated 30+ entries; almost none were settled, the archive stayed empty, and the few completed settlements were nearly all externally driven. This is the single most load-bearing fact in the design: it turned "settlement reminders" into **forced settlement**. |
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| The timeout three-way mechanism (settle now / mark unsettleable / one explicit extension with a new observable trigger) has, as far as our search found, **no external precedent** — it is original to this skill and is explicitly flagged as unproven. See "Design bets" below: we eat our own cooking. |
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| ### Key decisions |
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| 1. **Learning signal = reality vs. own predictions**, not user corrections — deliberate positioning; the README carries a three-row comparison against the correction-harvesting tools rather than pretending they don't exist. |
| 2. **Forced settlement over gentle reminders** — direct consequence of the prototype evidence. |
| 3. **Independent settler, no self-grading** — imported from the outcome-grader pattern. |
| 4. **Single-source thresholds** — one table in SKILL.md; every other mention is a reference. |
| 5. **Zero executable code shipped** — the optional host hook is documented as an example config only, clearly marked as not bundled. Honesty about capability over impressiveness. |
| 6. **Language split** — SKILL.md is the operative discipline (Chinese-primary in this release); README is the public face (English). A future release may ship a full English SKILL.md translation. |
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| ### Slash-phrase candidates (final pick pending maintainer review) |
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| - `log your bets, settle against reality` ← currently used in README |
| - `bet, settle, distill — on the record` |
| - `a predictions ledger with forced settlement` |
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| ### Open items before / at release |
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| - [ ] **Pressure-test baseline** (discipline-TDD): run fresh-context agents through "skip the log / fudge the settlement / wait-just-a-bit" pressure scenarios, capture verbatim rationalizations, extend the rebuttal table until no new excuses appear. Planned, **not yet run** — listed here as unfinished rather than claimed, per the skill's own honesty rule. |
| - [x] Fill `<owner>` placeholders in README (repo URL, marketplace lines) at publish time. — done (LucioLiu), pre-release review round. |
| - [x] Settle the slash-phrase choice. — decided in ops review: candidate 1 (`log your bets, settle against reality`) stays as the H1 for pull; candidate 3 (`a predictions ledger with forced settlement`) moves to the GitHub About line and description opener for search; candidate 2 dropped. |
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| ## Design bets (the ledger, applied to itself) |
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| | # | 日期 | 判断/预测 | 依据 | 回填触发 | 置信与概率 | 实际结果 | 偏差提炼 | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |
| | 1 | 2026-07-17 | Forced timeout settlement will be the single most-mentioned feature in substantive user feedback | 赌 "log-only, never settle" 之痛足够普遍，专治它的机制会最先被认出来 | First 10 pieces of substantive user feedback collected after release | MED · 60% | 【待回填】 | 预填两头风险：也可能成为被抱怨最多的点（过于死板）——正反都盯 | |
| | 2 | 2026-07-17 | The rationalization table will need at least three new entries within the first months of real use | 赌真实压力场景比扶手椅枚举更丰富 | First post-release pressure-test round, or first external contribution touching the table | HIGH · 80% | 【待回填】 | 若未命中，需区分「表已足够好」与「表根本没被用」——用元校准文件分辨 | |
| | 3 | 2026-07-17 | The independent-settler requirement will be the most-skipped rule in solo use | 赌单人使用场景里「换个上下文」的摩擦最大，最容易被自评自过替代 | First calibration review of a real user's ledger (self-reported or contributed) | MED · 65% | 【待回填】 | 若命中：按三级阶梯考虑为独立结算配更轻的机制（如结算 checklist 模板）而非只靠条文 | |
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