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problem formulation A joint confidence region for the parameters, i.e. for the elements of , is then bounded by the ellipsoid given by: Nonlinear problems Confidence regions can be defined for any probability distribution. The experimenter can choose the significance level and the shape of the region, and then the |
size of the region is determined by the probability distribution. A natural choice is to use as a boundary a set of points with constant (chi-squared) values. One approach is to use a linear approximation to the nonlinear model, which may be a close approximation in the vicinity of the |
solution, and then apply the analysis for a linear problem to find an approximate confidence region. This may be a reasonable approach if the confidence region is not very large and the second derivatives of the model are also not very large. See Uncertainty Quantification#Methodologies for forward uncertainty propagat... |
related concepts. See also - Draper and Smith (1981, p. 94) - Draper and Smith (1981, p. 108) - Draper and Smith (1981, p. 109) ||This article includes a list of references, but its sources remain unclear because it has insufficient inline citations. (September 2011)| - Draper, N.R.; H. Smith |
(1981) . Applied Regression Analysis (2nd ed.). USA: John Wiley and Sons Ltd. ISBN 0-471-02995-5. - Press, W.H.; S.A. Teukolsky, W.T. Vetterling, B.P. Flannery (1992) . Numerical Recipes in C: The Art of Scientific Computing (2nd ed.). Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. |
Father Christmas is the name used in many English-speaking countries outside the United States and Canada for a figure associated with Christmas. A similar figure with the same name (in |
other languages) exists in several other countries, including France (Père Noël), Spain (Papá Noel, Padre Noel), Russia (Ded Moroz, Grandfather Frost), almost all Hispanic South America (Papá Noel), Brazil (Papai |
Noel), Portugal (Pai Natal), Italy (Babbo Natale), Armenia (Dzmer Papik), India (Christmas Father), Andorra (Pare Noel), Romania (Moş Crăciun) and Turkey (Noel Baba). In England the earliest known personification of |
Christmas does not describe him as old, or refer to him as 'father'. A carol attributed to Richard Smart, Rector of Plymtree from 1435 to 1477, takes the form of |
associated with adult celebrations. Giving news of Christ’s birth, Christmas encourages everyone to eat and drink: "Buvez bien par toute la campagnie,/Make good cheer and be right merry." However, the |
specific depiction of Christmas as a merry old man emerged in the early 17th century. The rise of puritanism had led to increasing condemnation of the traditions handed down from |
pre-Reformation times, especially communal feasting and drinking. As debate intensified, those writing in support of the traditional celebrations often personified Christmas as a venerable, kindly old gentleman, given to good |
cheer but not excess. They referred to this personification as "Christmas", "Old Christmas" or "Father Christmas". Ben Jonson in Christmas his Masque, dating from December 1616, notes the rising tendency |
to disparage the traditional forms of celebration. His character 'Christmas' therefore appears in outdated fashions, "attir'd in round Hose, long Stockings, a close Doublet, a high crownd Hat with a |
Broach, a long thin beard, a Truncheon, little Ruffes, white shoes, his Scarffes, and Garters tyed crosse", and announces "Why Gentlemen, doe you know what you doe? ha! would you |
ha'kept me out? Christmas, old Christmas?" Later, in a masque by Thomas Nabbes, The Springs Glorie produced in 1638, "Christmas" appears as "an old reverend gentleman in furred gown and |
cap". During the mid-17th century, the debate about the celebration of Christmas became politically charged, with Royalists adopting a pro-Christmas stance and radical puritans striving to ban the festival entirely. |
Early in 1646 an anonymous satirical author wrote The Arraignment, Conviction and Imprisoning of Christmas, in which a Royalist lady is frantically searching for Father Christmas: this was followed months |
later by the Royalist poet John Taylor's The Complaint of Christmas, in which Father Christmas mournfully visits puritan towns but sees "...no sign or token of any Holy Day". A |
book dating from the time of the Commonwealth, The Vindication of CHRISTMAS or, His Twelve Yeares' Observations upon the Times (London, 1652), involved "Old Christmas" advocating a merry, alcoholic Christmas |
and casting aspersions on the charitable motives of the ruling Puritans. In a similar vein, a humorous pamphlet of 1686 by Josiah King presents Father Christmas as the personification of |
festive traditions pre-dating the puritan commonwealth. He is described as an elderly gentleman of cheerful appearance, "who when he came look't so smug and pleasant, his cherry cheeks appeared through |
his thin milk white locks, like (b)lushing Roses vail'd with snow white Tiffany". His character is associated with feasting, hospitality and generosity to the poor rather than the giving of |
gifts. This tradition continued into the following centuries, with "Old Father Christmas" being evoked in 1734 in the pamphlet Round About Our Coal Fire, as "Shewing what Hospitality was in |
former Times, and how little of it there remains at present", a rebuke to "stingy" gentry. A writer in "Time's Telescope" (1822) states that in Yorkshire at eight o'clock on |
Christmas Eve the bells greet "Old Father Christmas" with a merry peal, the children parade the streets with drums, trumpets, bells, (or in their absence, with the poker and shovel, |
taken from their humble cottage fire), the yule candle is lighted, and; "High on the cheerful fire. Is blazing seen th' enormous Christmas brand." A letter to The Times in |
1825, warning against poultry-dealers dishonestly selling off sub-standard geese at Christmas time, is jokingly signed "Father Christmas". In these early references, Father Christmas, although invariably an old and cheerful man, |
is mainly associated with adult feasting and drinking rather than the giving of presents. Since the mid-Victorian era however, Father Christmas has gradually merged with the pre-modern gift-giver St Nicholas |
(Dutch Sinterklaas, hence Santa Claus) and associated folklore. Nowadays in Britain the figure is often called Santa Claus but also often referred to as Father Christmas: the two names are |
synonyms. In Europe, the figure is usually translated as Father Christmas (Père Noël, Papá Noel, Padre Noel, etc.) rather than "Santa Claus" and is often said to reside in the |
mountains of Korvatunturi in Lapland Province, Finland. Current folklore Father Christmas often appears as a large man, often around seventy years old. He is dressed in a red suit trimmed |
with white fur, often girdled with a wide black belt, a matching hat, often long and floppy in nature, and dark boots. Often he carries a large brown sack filled |
with toys on his back (rarely, images of him have a beard but with no moustache). Urban myth has it that the red suit only appeared after the Coca Cola |
company started an advertising campaign depicting a red suited Father Christmas in the 1930s. However, the red suit was used long before, including by American illustrator Thomas Nast. Father Christmas |
comes down the chimney to put presents under the Christmas tree or in children's rooms, in their stockings. Some families leave a glass of sherry or mulled wine, mince pies, |
biscuits, or chocolate and a carrot for his reindeer near the stocking(s) as a present for him. In modern homes without chimneys he uses alternative means to enter the home. |
In some homes children write Christmas lists (of wished-for presents) and send them up the chimney or post them. He is often said to live at the North Pole. In |
fiction Father Christmas appears in many English-language works of fiction, including J. R. R. Tolkien's Father Christmas Letters (written between 1920 and 1942, first published in 1976), the translation from |
the French of Jean de Brunhoff's Babar and Father Christmas (originally Babar et le père Noël, 1941), C. S. Lewis's The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (1950), Raymond Briggs's |
Father Christmas (1973), Debbie Macomber's There's Something About Christmas (2005), Robin Jones Gunn's Father Christmas Series (2007), Catherine Spencer's A Christmas to Remember (2007), and Richard Paul Evans's The Gift |
(2007). In music - In 1977, The Kinks recorded the song "Father Christmas". - In addition, in 1974, Greg Lake (of Emerson, Lake & Palmer) wrote and recorded the song, |
"I Believe In Father Christmas", which was released as a single in 1975. - In their 1997 album Pop, U2 cites Father Christmas in the song "If God Will Send |
His Angels". See also - J. Simpson and S. Roud, The Oxford Dictionary of English Folklore, Oxford, 2001, pp. 119-20 - Although an earlier Elizabethan play by satirist Thomas Nashe, |
Summer's Last Will and Testament (1592), includes a character personifying Christmas, he is atypically presented as a stingy nobleman who shuns festivity. Nashe is satirising wealthy Elizabethan gentry who avoid |
their traditional duty of feasting the poor at Christmastime.The play text online at Gutenberg.org - At the time "Father" was a title sometimes given to older men worthy of respect: |
Hymnsandcarolsofchristmas.com. Retrieved 2012-10-23. - Jean Macintyre (1992). Costumes and Scripts in Elizabethan Theatres. University of Alberta Press. p. 230. - Nabbes, Thomas, The Works of Thomas Nabbes, Benjamin Blom, Inc, |
and Tryal of Father Christmas" - Round About Our Coal Fire, or Christmas Entertainments. J.Roberts. 1734. - Dawson, William Francis (2007). The Project Gutenberg eBook, Christmas: Its Origin and Associations |
Project Gutenburg - FATHER CHRISTMAS, "Christmas Geese", The Times (London, England) dated 24 December 1825, page 4. from The Times Digital Archive, accessed 22 December 2012. - Diarist Barclay Fox |
refers to a children's party given on 26 December 1842 featuring 'venerable effigies' of Father Christmas and the Old Year; '...Father Christmas with scarlet coat and cocked hat, stuck all |
over with presents for the guests...' R. L. Brett, ed., Barclay Fox's Journal, Bell and Hyman, London, 1979 - "BBC - Father Christmas, green or red?". BBC News. 4 December |
2009. Retrieved 2011-04-01. - Coke denies claims it bottled familiar Santa image, Jim Auchmutey, Rocky Mountain News, December 10, 2007. - "Santa's arrival lights up the Green". - Christmas in |
of India which was a period of material prosperity and great religious and scientific developments. The Gupta script was descended from Brahmi and gave rise to the Nagari, Sharada and Siddham scripts. These scripts in turn gave rise to many of the most important scripts of India, including Devanagari (the |
most common script used for writing Sanskrit since the 19th century), the Gurmukhi script for Punjabi Language and the Tibetan script. Origins and Classification The Gupta Script was descended from the Ashokan Brahmi script, and is a crucial link between Brahmi and most other scripts in the Brahmic family of |
Scripts, a family of alphasyllabaries or abugidas. This means that while only consonantal phonemes have distinct symbols, vowels are marked by diacritics, with /a/ being the implied pronunciation when the diacritic is not present. In fact, the Gupta script works in exactly the same manner as its predecessor and success... |
and only the shapes and forms of the graphemes and diacritics are different. Through the 4th century, letters began to take more cursive and symmetric forms, as a result of the desire to write more quickly and aesthetically. This also meant that the script became more differentiated throughout the Empire, |
with regional variations which have been broadly classified into three, four or five categories; however, a definitive classification is not clear, because even on a single inscription, there may be variation in how a particular symbol is written. In this sense, the term Gupta script should be taken to mean |
any form of writing derived from the Gupta period, even though there may be a lack of uniformity in the scripts. The surviving inscriptions of the Gupta script are mostly found on iron or stone pillars, and on gold coins from the Gupta Dynasty. One of the most important was |
the Allahabad Prasasti. Composed by Harishena, the court poet and minister of Samudragupta, it describes Samudragupta’s reign, beginning from his ascension to the throne as the second king of the Gupta Dynasty and including his conquest of other kings. Gupta Numismatics The study of Gupta coins began with the discovery |
of a hoard of gold coins in 1783. Many other such hoards have since been discovered, the most important being the Bayana hoard, discovered in 1946, which contained more than 2000 gold coins issued by the Gupta Kings. Many of the Gupta Empire’s coins bear inscriptions of legends or mark |
historic events. In fact, it was one of the first Indian Empires to do so, probably as a result of its unprecedented prosperity. Almost every Gupta king issued coins, beginning with its first king, Chandragupta I. The scripts on the coin are also of a different nature compared to scripts |
on pillars, due to conservatism regarding the coins that were to be accepted as currency, which would have prevented regional variations in the script from manifesting on the coinage. Moreover, space was more limited especially on their silver coins, and thus many of the symbols are truncated or stunted. An |
example is the symbol for /ta/ and /na/, which were often simplified to vertical strokes. - (Spanish) The Gupta Alphabet - AncientScripts.com entry on the Gupta Script - The Shivlee Collection of Coins from the Gupta Dynasty In particular, note the limited space on the silver coins - An eastern |
variety of the post-Gupta script: Akṣara List of theManuscripts of the Mūlamadhyamakakārikā and Buddhapālita's Commentary, c. the 550-650, Collection of Sanskrit Mss. Formerly Preserved in the China Ethnic Library - Sharma, Ram. 'Brahmi Script' . Delhi: BR Publishing Corp, 2002 - Srivastava, Anupama. 'The Development o... |
. New Delhi: Ramanand, 1998 - Fischer, Steven Roger. 'A History of Writing' . UK: Reaktion, 2004 - Bajpai, KD. 'Indian Numismatic Studies. ' New Delhi: Abhinav Publications 2004 - Carl Faulmann (1835–1894), Das Buch der Schrift, Druck und Verlag der Kaiserlichen Hof-und Staatsdruckerei, 1880 |
Edward III of England Richard II of England |Casualties and losses| The Caroline War was the second phase of the Hundred Years' War between France and England, following the Edwardian |
War. It was so-named after Charles V of France, who resumed the war after the Treaty of Brétigny (signed 1360). In May 1369, the Black Prince, son of Edward III |
of England, refused an illegal summons from the French king demanding he come to Paris and Charles responded by declaring war. He immediately set out to reverse the territorial losses |
imposed at Brétigny and he was largely successful in his lifetime. His successor, Charles VI, made peace with the son of the Black Prince, Richard II, in 1389. This truce |
was extended many times until the war was resumed in 1415. The reign of Charles V saw the English steadily pushed back. Although the English-backed claimant to the Duchy of |
Brittany, John of Montfort, defeated and killed the French claimant, Charles of Blois, at the Battle of Auray in 1364, John and his heirs eventually reconciled with the French kings. |
The War of the Breton Succession ended in favour of the English, but gave them no great advantage. In fact, the French received the benefit of improved generalship in the |
person of the Breton commander Bertrand du Guesclin, who, leaving Brittany, entered the service of Charles and became one of his most successful generals. At about the same time, a |
war in Spain occupied the Black Prince's efforts from 1366. The Castilian Civil War pitted Pedro the Cruel, whose daughters Constance and Isabella were married to the Black Prince's brothers |
John of Gaunt and Edmund of Langley, against Henry of Trastámara. In 1369, with the support of Du Guesclin, Henry deposed Pedro to become Henry II of Castile. He then |
went to war with England, which was allied with Portugal. Twenty years of war Just before New Year's Day 1370, the English seneschal of Poitou, John Chandos, was killed at |
the bridge at Lussac-les-Châteaux. The loss of this commander was a significant blow to the English. Jean III de Grailly, the captal de Buch, was also captured and locked up |
by Charles, who did not feel bound by "outdated" chivalry. Du Guesclin continued a series of careful campaigns, avoiding major English field forces, but capturing town after town, including Poitiers |
in 1372 and Bergerac in 1377. Du Guesclin, who according to chronicler Jean Froissart, had advised the French king not to engage the English in the field, was successful in |
these Fabian tactics, though in the only two major battles in which he fought, Auray (1364) and Nájera (1367), he was on the losing side and was captured but released |
for ransom. The English response to Du Guesclin was to launch a series of destructive military expeditions, called chevauchées, in an effort at total war to destroy the countryside and |
the productivity of the land. But Du Guesclin refused to be drawn into open battle. He continued his successful command of the French armies until his death in 1380. In |
1372, English dominance at sea, which had been upheld since the Battle of Sluys, was reversed, at least in the Bay of Biscay, by the disastrous defeat by a joint |
Franco-Castilian fleet at the Battle of La Rochelle. This defeat undermined English seaborne trade and supplies and threatened their Gascon possessions. In 1376, the Black Prince died, and in April |
1377, Edward III of England sent his Chancellor, Adam Houghton, to negotiate for peace with Charles, but when in June Edward himself died, Houghton was called home. The underaged Richard |
of Bordeaux succeeded to the throne of England. It was not until Richard had been deposed by his cousin Henry Bolingbroke that the English, under the House of Lancaster, could |
forcefully revive their claim to the French throne. The war nonetheless continued until the first of a series of truces was signed in 1389. Charles V died in September 1380 |
and was succeeded by his underage son, Charles VI, who was placed under the joint regency of his three uncles. On his deathbed Charles V repealed the royal taxation necessary |
to fund the war effort. As the regents attempted to reimpose the taxation a popular revolt known as the Harelle broke out in Rouen. As tax collectors arrived at other |
French cities the revolt spread and violence broke out in Paris and most of France's other northern cities. The regency was forced to repeal the taxes to calm the situation. |
See also - Ormrod, W., (2002). Edward III. History Today. Vol. 52(6), 20 pgs. - Ayton, A., (1992). War and the English Gentry under Edward III. History Today. Vol. 42(3), |
17 pgs. - Harari, Y., (2000). Stategy and Supply in Fourteenth Century Western European Invasion *Campaigns. Journal of Military History. Vol. 64(2), 37 pgs. - Saul, N., (1999). Richard II. |
History Today. Vol. 49(9), 5 pgs. - Jones, W.R., (1979). The English Church and Royal Propaganda during the Hundred Years' War. The Journal of British Studies, Vol. 19(1), 12 pages. |
||This article has multiple issues. Please help improve it or discuss these issues on the talk page. Preventive medicine or preventive care consists of measures taken to prevent diseases, (or injuries) rather than curing them or treating their symptoms. This contrasts in method with curative and palliative medicine, an... |
scope with public health methods (which work at the level of population health rather than individual health). Occupational medicine operates very often within the preventive medicine. Preventive medicine strategies are typically described as taking place at the primary, secondary, tertiary and quaternary prevention le... |
has been used to describe all measures taken to ensure fetal well-being and prevent any long-term health consequences from gestational history and/or disease. The rationale for such efforts is the evidence demonstrating the link between fetal well-being, or "primal health," and adult health. Primal prevention strategie... |
future parents with: education regarding the consequences of epigenetic influences on their child, sufficient leave time for both parents or, for lack of it, at least some kin caregiving. Simple examples of preventive medicine include hand washing, breastfeeding, and immunizations. Preventive care may include examinati... |
an individual's age, health, and family history. For example, a person with a family history of certain cancers or other diseases would begin screening at an earlier age and/or more frequently than those with no such family history. On the other side of preventive medicine, some nonprofit organizations, such as |
area of substance use proposed a three-tiered preventive intervention classification system: universal, selective, and indicated prevention. Amongst others, this typology has gained favour and is used by the U.S. Institute of Medicine, the NIDA and the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction. |Universal... |
community, school, district) and aims to prevent or delay the abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs. All individuals, without screening, are provided with information and skills needed to prevent the problem.| |Selective prevention||Involves groups whose risk of developing problems of alcohol abuse or dependence i... |
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