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1800.0
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2011-03-26 00:00:00 UTC
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Long-Term Concerns for Freeport on High Copper Prices
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/long-term-concerns-freeport-high-copper-prices-2011-03-26
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nan
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nan
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Freeport McMoran Copper ( FCX ) has seen a sharp rise in its revenues due to steady growth in the price of copper. The fact that the metal is currently priced at an all-time high suggests that Freeport, and its competitors like Southern Copper (NYSE:PCU), Codelco and Newmont Mining ( NEM ) can expect high revenue figures for this year. However, the benefit from high copper prices could be mitigated if manufacturers choose to substitute copper with aluminum to save costs.
Freeport is involved in mining, smelting and refining of coper, gold and molybdenum. The company runs its mining and smelting operations in North and South America, Indonesia and Africa. Our $63.42 base price estimate for Freeport's stock is at a roughly 15% premium to the stock's market price
Average Realized Copper Price per Pound from Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Mines -
Copper Prices Have Rallied After the Economic Downturn of 2008…
Copper was selling at less than $1.3 per pound in December 2008. But in the last 2 years, the price has increased by more than 250% to reach its current high of $4.6 per pound.
This no doubt creates upside potential in Freeport's value, as its average realized price per pound of copper could be around the $4.5 mark for this year, more than 15% higher than our current base case estimate of under $4 per pound for 2011.
Copper Shipments from Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Mines -
… But this Could Really Hurt Freeport Soon
Aluminum is seen as a more cost-effective and feasible substitute for copper if the price of copper crosses the $3.5 per pound mark. In the last 5 years, aluminum has already substituted 2-3% of the copper market, and this number will likely increase. Alcoa ( AA ), the world's leading aluminum producer, predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at the current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global annual refined copper market.
To illustrate how a reduction in copper sales affects our $63.42 price estimate for Freeport McMoran , we highlight the impact from a shipment reduction from the company's Indonesian mines, which constitute roughly 26% of the company's stock value. If copper shipments from these mines (shown as copper sold in the chart above) drops by 20% from our base case forecast, to reach 1 billion tons in 2011, our price estimate would fall below $60 - a downside impact of nearly 5%.
See our full analysis and $63.42 price estimate for Freeport McMoran
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world's leading aluminum producer, predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at the current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global annual refined copper market. The fact that the metal is currently priced at an all-time high suggests that Freeport, and its competitors like Southern Copper (NYSE:PCU), Codelco and Newmont Mining ( NEM ) can expect high revenue figures for this year. The company runs its mining and smelting operations in North and South America, Indonesia and Africa.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world's leading aluminum producer, predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at the current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global annual refined copper market. Our $63.42 base price estimate for Freeport's stock is at a roughly 15% premium to the stock's market price Average Realized Copper Price per Pound from Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Mines - Copper Prices Have Rallied After the Economic Downturn of 2008… Copper was selling at less than $1.3 per pound in December 2008. To illustrate how a reduction in copper sales affects our $63.42 price estimate for Freeport McMoran , we highlight the impact from a shipment reduction from the company's Indonesian mines, which constitute roughly 26% of the company's stock value.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world's leading aluminum producer, predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at the current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global annual refined copper market. Our $63.42 base price estimate for Freeport's stock is at a roughly 15% premium to the stock's market price Average Realized Copper Price per Pound from Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Mines - Copper Prices Have Rallied After the Economic Downturn of 2008… Copper was selling at less than $1.3 per pound in December 2008. Copper Shipments from Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Mines - … But this Could Really Hurt Freeport Soon Aluminum is seen as a more cost-effective and feasible substitute for copper if the price of copper crosses the $3.5 per pound mark.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world's leading aluminum producer, predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at the current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global annual refined copper market. But in the last 2 years, the price has increased by more than 250% to reach its current high of $4.6 per pound. Copper Shipments from Freeport McMoran's Indonesian Mines - … But this Could Really Hurt Freeport Soon Aluminum is seen as a more cost-effective and feasible substitute for copper if the price of copper crosses the $3.5 per pound mark.
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1801.0
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2011-03-26 00:00:00 UTC
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Rising Copper Prices are Good News for Aluminum Producer Alcoa
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rising-copper-prices-are-good-news-aluminum-producer-alcoa-2011-03-26
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has very good reason to rejoice with rising copper prices. This is because aluminum is generally accepted as a cheaper substitute to copper in many applications, and many manufacturers are seriously considering switching to aluminum with copper reaching all-time high prices early this year. This inclination towards aluminum would also benefit Alcoa's competitors which include Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ).
Alcoa's products are used in a wide variety of products from aircrafts and automobiles to commercial transportation and packaging. The company also sells non-aluminum products like aerospace and industrial fasteners. Our price estimate for Alcoa, at $17.68 , is roughly in line with the stock's market price.
Copper vs. Aluminum: Have the Scales Already Tipped?
Copper is primarily used in electrical appliances and construction. It is used widely in electrical appliances because it is an excellent conductor of electricity. Notably, about 65% of copper usage is attributable to electrical appliances. Construction applications make up the bulk of the remaining share of copper usage - the metal is often used for roofing and plumbing in addition to its use in automobile and ship manufacturing.
Copper prices are currently at an all-time high, above $4.5 per pound. In comparison, aluminum is priced at about $1.1 per pound. Given the costs of retooling manufacturing processes and the extra aluminum it takes to conduct the same amount of electricity as copper, it often becomes more economical to use aluminum instead of copper if copper prices rise above $3.50 per pound.
So How Much Can Alcoa Gain?
Over the past 5 years, aluminum has substituted about 2% of the copper market on average. While this might not seem like much, this number is primed for rapid growth. Alcoa predicts that if copper prices continue to rise at their current pace, then aluminum could potentially substitute 20% of the global refined copper market.
If Alcoa's primary metal shipments increase by 20% in the years to come, this metric could surpass 5.2 million tons by the end of our forecast period (vs. our base case estimate of about 4.4 million tons). This would represent nearly 10% upside to our $17.68 price estimate for Alcoa , pushing our estimate to about $19.20.
See our full analysis and $17.68 price estimate for Alcoa
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has very good reason to rejoice with rising copper prices. This is because aluminum is generally accepted as a cheaper substitute to copper in many applications, and many manufacturers are seriously considering switching to aluminum with copper reaching all-time high prices early this year. Construction applications make up the bulk of the remaining share of copper usage - the metal is often used for roofing and plumbing in addition to its use in automobile and ship manufacturing.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has very good reason to rejoice with rising copper prices. This is because aluminum is generally accepted as a cheaper substitute to copper in many applications, and many manufacturers are seriously considering switching to aluminum with copper reaching all-time high prices early this year. See our full analysis and $17.68 price estimate for Alcoa The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has very good reason to rejoice with rising copper prices. This is because aluminum is generally accepted as a cheaper substitute to copper in many applications, and many manufacturers are seriously considering switching to aluminum with copper reaching all-time high prices early this year. Given the costs of retooling manufacturing processes and the extra aluminum it takes to conduct the same amount of electricity as copper, it often becomes more economical to use aluminum instead of copper if copper prices rise above $3.50 per pound.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has very good reason to rejoice with rising copper prices. This is because aluminum is generally accepted as a cheaper substitute to copper in many applications, and many manufacturers are seriously considering switching to aluminum with copper reaching all-time high prices early this year. Alcoa's products are used in a wide variety of products from aircrafts and automobiles to commercial transportation and packaging.
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1802.0
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2011-03-09 00:00:00 UTC
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Subdued Construction Demand Could Weigh on Alcoa
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/subdued-construction-demand-could-weigh-alcoa-2011-03-09
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has seen a significant reduction in its revenue and income over the past two years. Its sales figures fell from a peak of more than $33.5 billion in 2008 to $21.6 billion in 2009, a decline of more than 35%. In 2010, sales recovered to $25.7. This trend has been seen across all companies in the metals and mining industry, which includes competitors like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ).
Our price estimate for Alcoa, at $17.68 , implies a 9% premium to market price.
The Primary Uses of Aluminum…
Aluminum products are used worldwide in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, and packaging. The products also see demand from construction and other industrial applications. Demand for aluminum for these purposes is driven by the metal's considerable strength despite being extremely light.
The largest chunk (about 26%) of all aluminum produced is used in transportation. This is followed by the construction and packaging industries with each constituting 20% of the total production of aluminum.
… Which Explains Why Alcoa has Struggled in the Recent Past
Aluminum is used in a wide range of construction projects, from small window catches to large, durable structures like staircases, air-conditioning systems and roofs. While the global recession hit all industries, the dependence of aluminum producers on the construction industry magnified this effect.
The construction industry is recovering slowly from the effects of the global recession and real estate bubble. While a recent report by KPMG predicts a bullish outlook for the construction industry in 2011, the aluminum industry is less upbeat with the Chinese government phasing out its economic-stimulus package initiated in 2008. China is the world's largest aluminum market where construction accounts for almost 50% of total aluminum consumption in China.
And it Could be a Bumpy Ride for Alcoa in the Near Future
A slow recovery in construction could impact Alcoa's aluminum shipment figures considerably. We forecast 4% growth in Alcoa's sale of aluminum in the years to come. To understand how much value Alcoa stands to lose, if we reduced the growth rate to 2%, our price estimate for Alcoa stock to just below $17. This represents a roughly 5% decline from our base price estimate of $17.68 .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has seen a significant reduction in its revenue and income over the past two years. The Primary Uses of Aluminum… Aluminum products are used worldwide in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, and packaging. … Which Explains Why Alcoa has Struggled in the Recent Past Aluminum is used in a wide range of construction projects, from small window catches to large, durable structures like staircases, air-conditioning systems and roofs.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has seen a significant reduction in its revenue and income over the past two years. China is the world's largest aluminum market where construction accounts for almost 50% of total aluminum consumption in China.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has seen a significant reduction in its revenue and income over the past two years. While the global recession hit all industries, the dependence of aluminum producers on the construction industry magnified this effect. China is the world's largest aluminum market where construction accounts for almost 50% of total aluminum consumption in China.
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Alcoa ( AA ), the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, has seen a significant reduction in its revenue and income over the past two years. The products also see demand from construction and other industrial applications. This is followed by the construction and packaging industries with each constituting 20% of the total production of aluminum.
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1803.0
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2011-03-08 00:00:00 UTC
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Good Things Come in Aluminum Packages for Alcoa
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/good-things-come-aluminum-packages-alcoa-2011-03-08
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, and competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ).
Its products are used worldwide in aircrafts, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, and industrial applications. The company also sells non-aluminum products including precision castings and aerospace and industrial fasteners.
Our price estimate for Alcoa, at $17.68 , implies a 7% premium to market price.
The Packaging Industry Drives Demand for Aluminum in a Big Way…
The packaging industry uses a significant quantity of aluminum. The metal's light weight makes it ideal for making cans. Moreover, it is very convenient to use aluminum foil for wrapping and storing food. It is estimated that almost 20% of all aluminum produced is used for packaging. With the global demand for the aluminum industry expected to reach 45 million tons by 2012, it implies that almost 9 million tons of aluminum will be used for packaging by then.
Moreover, a few independent researches have recently shown that aluminum beverage bottles can actually provide insulation comparable to glass bottles. Puzzling as this discovery is, it has the potential to boost the usage of aluminium by giving the metal access to the bottling industry which has been dominated completely by glass and plastic.
… But Will this Actually Translate to Any Benefit for Alcoa?
Any factor that can increase the demand for aluminum in theglobal marketis bound to add value to all aluminum manufacturing companies world-wide, as it represents an increase in sales revenues. With Alcoa being the front-runner in the industry, this would represent a significant upside for the company in the years to come.
But in the recent past, all aluminum manufacturers have faced a threat to their profitability due to increasing focus on environmental sustainability. Aluminum production requires a substantial amount of electricity. In fact, electricity costs are second only to the cost of acquiring bauxite ore. This, combined with the fact that aluminum is 100% recyclable at a fraction of its manufacturing costs, has spawned an extremely profitable recycled-aluminum industry.
The increase in use of recycled aluminium is the U.S. is what most likely prompted Alcoa's CEO Mr. Klaus Kleinfeld to predict flat growth in the usage of aluminum in the country for 2011.
See our full analysis and $17.68 price estimate for Alcoa
We believe Alcoa's primary metals sales figure could increase by as much as 10% by the end of our forecast period, pushing our estimated shipments to 5 million tons at that point. This would in-turn represent a 7.5% upside to our $17.68 price estimate for Alcoa , bringing our number to $19.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, and competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ). Its products are used worldwide in aircrafts, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, and industrial applications. Puzzling as this discovery is, it has the potential to boost the usage of aluminium by giving the metal access to the bottling industry which has been dominated completely by glass and plastic.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, and competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ). With the global demand for the aluminum industry expected to reach 45 million tons by 2012, it implies that almost 9 million tons of aluminum will be used for packaging by then. See our full analysis and $17.68 price estimate for Alcoa We believe Alcoa's primary metals sales figure could increase by as much as 10% by the end of our forecast period, pushing our estimated shipments to 5 million tons at that point.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, and competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ). The Packaging Industry Drives Demand for Aluminum in a Big Way… The packaging industry uses a significant quantity of aluminum. With the global demand for the aluminum industry expected to reach 45 million tons by 2012, it implies that almost 9 million tons of aluminum will be used for packaging by then.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina, and competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ). The Packaging Industry Drives Demand for Aluminum in a Big Way… The packaging industry uses a significant quantity of aluminum. Puzzling as this discovery is, it has the potential to boost the usage of aluminium by giving the metal access to the bottling industry which has been dominated completely by glass and plastic.
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1804.0
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2011-02-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Rising Aluminium Prices to Drive Alcoa's Value
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rising-aluminium-prices-drive-alcoas-value-2011-02-11
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ).
The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.28 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.
Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value
The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.
Aluminum prices have increased over the last 2 years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.
We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.
With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.
See the complete $17.28 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue. We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.
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1805.0
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2011-02-10 00:00:00 UTC
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The Aluminium Report, Alcoa, Rusal
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/aluminium-report-alcoa-rusal-2011-02-10
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa ( AA ), United Company Rusal Plc HKG:0486
MIC, RBS, DB, AA, CS
For the better part of the last 2 yrs, aluminum was the metal everyone loved to hate. While, Copper, the darling of hedge funds, raced to 1 record high after another, hitting US$10,000 a tonne last week for the 1st time, Aluminum, the most widely used metal after Steel, lagged.
The lightweight metal, used in consumer, and industrial products from cars, and aircraft to drinks cans, has been winning favor in the metals community.
Strategists at RBS ( RBS ) have made it their Top pick for Y 2011, while Macquarie ( MIC ), Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank ( DB ) have also turned bullish.
Players are beginning to take note. Hedge funds have begun to unwind one of last year's most popular trades, that Copper would outperform Aluminum, by buying Aluminum and selling Copper.
That helped push the benchmark Aluminum contract above US$2,500 a tonne for the 1st time since September 2008, and Wednesday it hit a 2 yr high of US$2,575.25.
Unlike Copper, Aluminum remains a long way from its high of the last cycle, US$3,380 in July 2008, but, Copper is now nearly 4 times as expensive as Aluminum, the highest such ratio on record.
That alone is 1 reason some believe Aluminum could rally. "Aluminum is set to play catch up and redress the imbalance," says Nick Moore, head of commodity strategy at RBS.
More important is a change in perceptions about the balance of Aluminum supply and demand.
The most significant change is in China, where Aluminum production, a notoriously energy-intensive process, has been curbed by the government's push to reduce power consumption, culminating in power being cut off to smelters late last year.
The sharp fall in Chinese Aluminum production, from about 17.5m to 14.5m tonnes on an annualized basis, has changed the balance of supply and demand in the country.
Traders say that Aluminum stocks in China are very rapidly being drawn down towards critical levels of about 1 week's consumption, despite sales of 213,000 tonnes in December from the State Reserve Bureau, the government stockpiling agency.
That means inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the visible part of China's Aluminum stock, could fall sharply. The country could even be forced to turn to the international market for supplies, driving prices higher.
Alcoa ( AA ) has predicted that Chinese demand will outstrip production by 700,000 tonnes this year even as the rest of the World has a surplus aluminum output.
Add to that, traders and analysts have been surprised by the strength of Aluminum demand, Global consumption of the metal will rise 12% this year, according to Alcoa forecasts, after a 13% rise last year, with the growth coming as much from the USA, and EU as China or the Middle East.
A final upside risk to the Aluminum price is the potential for the launch of new exchange-traded funds (EFs) that buy up physical metal.
The 1st 2 such investment products are slated to launch this quarter, hey are, ETF Securities, which in December launched ETFs in three LME-traded metals, has said it hopes to bring an Aluminum ETF to market, while Credit Suisse ( CS ) has filed an application at the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to launch its own Aluminum ETF after earlier trying to launch the product in Switzerland.
All this makes a quick run to about US$2,700 or more a tonne likely in here, some analysts and players believe.
But their Bullishness is tempered by the massive overhang of Aluminum inventories, which were built up when manufacturers slashed production during the financial crisis.
There are 4.6M tonnes of Aluminum in LME-registered warehouses and by some estimates total Global stocks could be in excess of 10M tonnes.
The existence of huge stockpiles has not led to a price crash because they are mostly locked up in long-term financing deals held by banks such as Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs (GS) or traders such as Glencore, keeping them off the market.
However, the deals rely on a combination of low interest rates, financial incentives provided by warehouses and the fact that aluminum for delivery soon has traded at a large discount to longer-dated futures. Already that discount, called the "contango", has narrowed significantly, while premiums paid in some locations above the LME price have reached record levels, both indications of tightening physical markets.
If things turn out as the Aluminum Bulls predict, the rise in prices could have the effect of squeezing the international market until metal starts to come out of financing deals.
Already, traders and bankers say, profitability has been significantly reduced on financing deals, making them shorter-term in nature and only available to those able to secure bargain warehousing rates.
Thus the Bullish call comes with a caveat. "Be wary of holding on for too long," says Max Layton of Macquarie. "There is a cap to prices."-Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Metals analysts are very bullish on aluminium, iron ore and palladium as the best commodities to invest in for 2011.
While the base metals index has risen 145 per cent since its December 2008 low, the rise in 2009 was 91 per cent, and last year there was only 21 per cent growth.
Of HCM's winners for 2011, the top pick is aluminium, 'providing the most attractive risk-reward play of the base metals.
We expect the substantial rise in the price of palladium, used in jewellery and fuel cells, to continue this year. Palladium has already risen 400 per cent since December 2008.
The launch of copper ETFs in 2011 could provide more price excitement in 2011, HCM says, but zinc, the only base metal to finish 2010 lower, remains out of favour, with surplus inventories eliminating the need to top up stocks.
Among the bulk commodities, iron ore and coal, which are no longer priced annually, are expected to perform well this year.
Shayne Heffernan www.livetradingnews.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ), United Company Rusal Plc HKG:0486 Alcoa ( AA ) has predicted that Chinese demand will outstrip production by 700,000 tonnes this year even as the rest of the World has a surplus aluminum output. Traders say that Aluminum stocks in China are very rapidly being drawn down towards critical levels of about 1 week's consumption, despite sales of 213,000 tonnes in December from the State Reserve Bureau, the government stockpiling agency.
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Alcoa ( AA ), United Company Rusal Plc HKG:0486 Alcoa ( AA ) has predicted that Chinese demand will outstrip production by 700,000 tonnes this year even as the rest of the World has a surplus aluminum output. Strategists at RBS ( RBS ) have made it their Top pick for Y 2011, while Macquarie ( MIC ), Barclays Capital and Deutsche Bank ( DB ) have also turned bullish.
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Alcoa ( AA ), United Company Rusal Plc HKG:0486 Alcoa ( AA ) has predicted that Chinese demand will outstrip production by 700,000 tonnes this year even as the rest of the World has a surplus aluminum output. Hedge funds have begun to unwind one of last year's most popular trades, that Copper would outperform Aluminum, by buying Aluminum and selling Copper.
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Alcoa ( AA ), United Company Rusal Plc HKG:0486 Alcoa ( AA ) has predicted that Chinese demand will outstrip production by 700,000 tonnes this year even as the rest of the World has a surplus aluminum output. Add to that, traders and analysts have been surprised by the strength of Aluminum demand, Global consumption of the metal will rise 12% this year, according to Alcoa forecasts, after a 13% rise last year, with the growth coming as much from the USA, and EU as China or the Middle East.
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1806.0
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2011-02-01 00:00:00 UTC
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New Coverage: $15 Trefis Price Estimate for Alcoa
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/new-coverage-15-trefis-price-estimate-alcoa-2011-02-01
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active and growing participation in all major aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. Alcoa operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. It has investments in Australia, Brazil, China, Iceland, Guinea, Russia, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. U.S. accounts for close to 57% of Alcoa's revenues, with Europe generating 27% of the revenues in 2009. The company competes with other international Aluminium giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto ( RIO ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ) and Chalco ( ACH ). We recently launched coverage of the company with a Trefis price estimate of $15 for Alcoa.
Alcoa's non-aluminum products include precision castings and aerospace and industrial fasteners. Alcoa's products are used worldwide in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, and industrial applications.
We've broken down our analysis of Alcoa into four main business segments:
Alumina
Primary Metals
Flat Rolled products
Engineered Products
The Alumina segment contributes 19% to our estimate for Alcoa and consists of Alcoa's worldwide alumina system, including the mining of bauxite, which is then refined into alumina. The majority of alumina is shipped to third party aluminium smelter customers or is sold to customers that process it into chemical products. Approximately half of the alumina produced is used internally in the downstream division of primary metals.
Next is the Primary Metals Division is the most valuable division for Alcoa accounting for almost 42% of the stock value. This segment consists of Alcoa's worldwide smelter system. This unit receives alumina, primarily from the alumina segment, and produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, as well as sold to external customers, aluminum traders, and commodity markets.
The Flat Rolled Products segment chips in 18% of Alcoa's value by our estimates and is responsible for the production and sale of aluminum plate, sheet and foil. This segment includes the production of rigid container sheet, as well as sheets and plates used in the transportation, building and construction and distribution markets.
Finally, the Engineered Products division produces titanium, aluminum, and super alloy investment castings; forgings and fasteners; aluminum wheels; integrated aluminum structural systems and other industrially manufactured aluminium products and adds 21% of the price estimate.
You can see the complete $15 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active and growing participation in all major aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. It has investments in Australia, Brazil, China, Iceland, Guinea, Russia, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Alcoa's products are used worldwide in aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, and industrial applications.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active and growing participation in all major aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. We've broken down our analysis of Alcoa into four main business segments: Alumina Primary Metals Flat Rolled products Engineered Products The Alumina segment contributes 19% to our estimate for Alcoa and consists of Alcoa's worldwide alumina system, including the mining of bauxite, which is then refined into alumina. This unit receives alumina, primarily from the alumina segment, and produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, as well as sold to external customers, aluminum traders, and commodity markets.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active and growing participation in all major aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. We've broken down our analysis of Alcoa into four main business segments: Alumina Primary Metals Flat Rolled products Engineered Products The Alumina segment contributes 19% to our estimate for Alcoa and consists of Alcoa's worldwide alumina system, including the mining of bauxite, which is then refined into alumina. This unit receives alumina, primarily from the alumina segment, and produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, as well as sold to external customers, aluminum traders, and commodity markets.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active and growing participation in all major aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. We've broken down our analysis of Alcoa into four main business segments: Alumina Primary Metals Flat Rolled products Engineered Products The Alumina segment contributes 19% to our estimate for Alcoa and consists of Alcoa's worldwide alumina system, including the mining of bauxite, which is then refined into alumina. This unit receives alumina, primarily from the alumina segment, and produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, as well as sold to external customers, aluminum traders, and commodity markets.
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1807.0
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2011-01-24 00:00:00 UTC
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Up 40% in Four Months… And This Stock is STILL a Strong "Buy"
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/40-four-months-and-stock-still-strong-buy-2011-01-24
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nan
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nan
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Investors often make one key mistake: They look to bag profits after an investment has made an impressive move. That makes sense -- if the reasons to buy that stock have changed, or if the stock is now too pricey in relation to futureearnings . But there are many instances where you should "let your winners ride." Rising stocks can often stay in an up mode for an extended period of time, which is why many investors seek out just such stocks, using the Relative Strength Index .
I'm not a big chart reader and tend to avoid chasing momentum stocks. But I know a bargain when I see one. And Alcoa ( AA ) still looks like a very attractive stock, even after a 40% gain since I recommended theshares four months ago.
As I wrote back then, management has removed many costs from the business, the entire industry is showing much more production discipline, andearnings per share ( EPS ) could rise 30% in 2012, 2013 and again in 2014 when they could hit a cyclical peak. Shares are still quite cheap in terms of those peak cycleearnings .
As I noted back in September, Alcoa's 2009 results were nothing short of dismal, as sales fell 31%. Thanks to robust cost cuts and an uptick in aluminum prices, 2010 results were notably better. Sales rose 14% andcash flow more than tripled. Alcoa finished the year with solid momentum, and sales should rise another 15% this year whilecash flow could rise at a triple-digit clip once again. Rising demand for aluminum in automobiles, beverage cans, airplanes and global construction should set a positive industry tone, more than offsetting a moderate rise in industry capacity.
Yet many analysts continue to be unimpressed by Alcoa, noting that shares seem fairly valued in the context of projected 2011 results. They're right. But now that we've turned the calendar into 2011, and now that the globaleconomy seems set to finally strengthen in the next few years, you have to look out to 2012 and 2013 to really understand the value of this stock
My bullish long-term view comes down to China. Aluminum smelters consume massive amounts of electricity, and as a result, China has realized that its energy production is better spent in other areas. The country has been taking steps to discourage domestic production of aluminum as a result. That means China is now a net importer of aluminum whereas it was a net exporter of aluminum in the past.
Meanwhile, Alcoa's previous strategy of putting smelters where clean low-cost energy is abundant in places like Iceland and Trinidad/Tobago is now paying off. The company is the lowest-cost producer in the industry -- by a considerablemargin .
Analysts currently think Alcoa will earn around $1.15 this year and $1.45 in 2012. Then again, they've been under-estimating the company's earnings potential for several quarters now, and I think those forecasts are too conservative. Regardless, you need to see the stock in relation to where profits can ultimately reach in the whole economic cycle. By 2013, further modest top-line growth could pushEPS toward the $2 mark, andEPS could hit a cyclical peak of around $2.50 by 2014. (As a point of reference, Alcoa earned $2.54 a share in 2006 and $3.24 a share in 2007).
Action to Take --> What I wrote four months ago still applies: "When the globaleconomy -- and Alcoa -- are back on their feet, shares could easily trade up to 10 times profits (or six times 2013 EBITDA), or $22 to $25." That's another 40% from current levels, though still below the $30 to $40 range seen in 2006, 2007 and 2008."
Shares moved up by that amount since last September. I think another 40% move is in order for the stock, though I suspect that this next move could take a year or two to play out. Lastly, once Alcoa addresses its underfunded pension, the firm will likely look to reinstate itsdividend back to levels seen a few years ago -- $0.60 a share. That equates to ayield of roughly 3.8%.
-- David Sterman
P.S.-- We've just identified six surprising events that could break your portfolio wide open in 2011. Knowing these pivot points in advance lets you focus your investing strategy like a beam of light in the dark... and make a lot of money in a hurry. Get them free by simply watching this video presentation.
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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And Alcoa ( AA ) still looks like a very attractive stock, even after a 40% gain since I recommended theshares four months ago. As I wrote back then, management has removed many costs from the business, the entire industry is showing much more production discipline, andearnings per share ( EPS ) could rise 30% in 2012, 2013 and again in 2014 when they could hit a cyclical peak. But now that we've turned the calendar into 2011, and now that the globaleconomy seems set to finally strengthen in the next few years, you have to look out to 2012 and 2013 to really understand the value of this stock My bullish long-term view comes down to China.
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And Alcoa ( AA ) still looks like a very attractive stock, even after a 40% gain since I recommended theshares four months ago. As I noted back in September, Alcoa's 2009 results were nothing short of dismal, as sales fell 31%. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. © Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC.
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And Alcoa ( AA ) still looks like a very attractive stock, even after a 40% gain since I recommended theshares four months ago. As I wrote back then, management has removed many costs from the business, the entire industry is showing much more production discipline, andearnings per share ( EPS ) could rise 30% in 2012, 2013 and again in 2014 when they could hit a cyclical peak. Alcoa finished the year with solid momentum, and sales should rise another 15% this year whilecash flow could rise at a triple-digit clip once again.
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And Alcoa ( AA ) still looks like a very attractive stock, even after a 40% gain since I recommended theshares four months ago. Aluminum smelters consume massive amounts of electricity, and as a result, China has realized that its energy production is better spent in other areas. Analysts currently think Alcoa will earn around $1.15 this year and $1.45 in 2012.
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1808.0
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2011-01-20 00:00:00 UTC
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Is This the Ultimate Buy-and-Hold Stock?
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ultimate-buy-and-hold-stock-2011-01-20
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nan
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nan
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As investors continually seek out new investment ideas, it can get very tiresome. Just when you've found certain appealing stocks, they move up to your price target or lose operating momentum, and you're compelled to find the next idea. But what if you could hold a stock for the whole year, a whole decade or even a whole generation?
Well, that's how people used to invest. My grandmother boughtshares of AT&T (NYSE: T ) in the 1950s -- and never sold them. Thedividend income was surely appealing. And thecapital appreciation helped her stay well ahead of the forces ofinflation . But if my Grandma were alive today, would she still be able to find a "forever stock?" After all, in recent years, even stalwarts such as AT&T have lost their luster: Ma Bell'sshares have fallen by half since 2002.
You can still find "forever stocks" if you know where to look. The key ingredient is to seek out companies with long operating histories, that sell goods or services that won't become obsolete, and routinely generate solid rates of return on their deployed capital.
Of course, if it is to be a core holding, you'll have to avoid companies subject to wild cyclical swings such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE ) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) . Those companies are likely to be around -- and flourish -- for many decades to come, but they'll give you plenty of indigestion along the way. You also want to find companies that can handle external impacts such asinflation . They must show the ability to raise prices whenever their own costs rise.
For example, Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM ) has seen itsshares rise steadily for more than 15 years. The fast-food operator is truly becoming a global name with its KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut restaurants opening around the world. That means the company is truly tied to the globe and not just the United States. Fearinginflation ? These value-oriented chains would hold even greater consumer appeal if rising prices deter people from eating at pricier restaurants.
The ultimate rain or shine stock
There's one thing that's bound to never change: people always need shelter. They can look to buy a home or spruce up their existing home. Or they can look to rent a place if home ownership doesn't appeal. And no matter where they live, people dislike old dingy walls with flaky paint. So a fresh paint job is often a key step in turning a house into a home. And that's been great for Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW ) . It's not a sizzling growth story -- sales have grown from $5 billion in 2001 to around $7 billion in 2009. And in coming years, analysts only expect sales to keep growing at a high single-digit pace. Yet for a "forever stock," that's good enough.
What drives the company's growth? A nice combination of annual price increases, new household formation of around 1.0-1.5 million in the United States (a trend which has only temporarily stalled in recent years), and international expansion. The company, which is five years away from its 150th anniversary, operates more than 3,000 stores.
Here in the United States, Sherwin-Williams should benefit from an eventual rebound in housing. Looking abroad, the company has a chance to build on its 500-plus store base, developing a go-to brand name as it has in the United States. Those growth drivers are augmented by a series of stock buybacks as management puts excesscash flow to work.Free cash flow (FCF ) is on track to rise for its sixth straight year, to nearly $700 million.
Sherwin Williams is also on track to boost itsdividend for at least the 10th straight year. (My database doesn't go back further than that). The company hiked itsdividend by more than 20% a year during 2005 through 2007, though payout hikes have been more modest in recent years. A reboundingeconomy and all thatFCF should set the stage for more robustdividend hikes in the years to come.
As a final kicker, the company's return on equity has exceeded 30% in each of the last four years -- not bad for a company that was exposed to the brutal downturn in the housing market.
Action to Take --> It's simply hard to imagine a scenario where demand for paint slumps. And Sherwin-Williams has the most powerful brand in the business. A caveat to the "forever stocks" scenario: markets have rebounded sharply, liftingshares of companies like Yum Brands and Sherwin-Williams. Some investors may prefer to wait for deep market pullbacks before pouncing on these buy-and-hold-forever names. Then again, that approach may cause you to miss out on even more upside that many predict for thestock market in coming years.
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Of course, if it is to be a core holding, you'll have to avoid companies subject to wild cyclical swings such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE ) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) . The key ingredient is to seek out companies with long operating histories, that sell goods or services that won't become obsolete, and routinely generate solid rates of return on their deployed capital. These value-oriented chains would hold even greater consumer appeal if rising prices deter people from eating at pricier restaurants.
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Of course, if it is to be a core holding, you'll have to avoid companies subject to wild cyclical swings such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE ) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) . A caveat to the "forever stocks" scenario: markets have rebounded sharply, liftingshares of companies like Yum Brands and Sherwin-Williams. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. © Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC.
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Of course, if it is to be a core holding, you'll have to avoid companies subject to wild cyclical swings such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE ) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) . The company hiked itsdividend by more than 20% a year during 2005 through 2007, though payout hikes have been more modest in recent years. As a final kicker, the company's return on equity has exceeded 30% in each of the last four years -- not bad for a company that was exposed to the brutal downturn in the housing market.
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Of course, if it is to be a core holding, you'll have to avoid companies subject to wild cyclical swings such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE ) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM ) . But what if you could hold a stock for the whole year, a whole decade or even a whole generation? Or they can look to rent a place if home ownership doesn't appeal.
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1809.0
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2011-01-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: U.S. Stock Futures Rise on Earnings Hopes
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-us-stock-futures-rise-earnings-hopes-2011-01-11
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nan
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nan
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost ground for the third day in a row on Monday, as European debt concerns applied pressure to U.S. stocks. However, with Japan pledging to buy European debt, and Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) posting a solid quarterly earnings report, tensions on Wall Street have eased considerably. In fact, futures on the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are trading roughly 46 and 4.75 points above fair value, respectively.
Technically, the DJIA slipped beneath its 10-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 30, but support held firm at the Dow's 20-day trendline. Look for the blue chip barometer to trade between the 11,600 and 11,750 levels for the short term. As for the SPX, the broad-market index held support at its 10-day trendline (near 1,265), but remains capped by overhead resistance in the 1,275 area.
In earnings news, Dow component Alcoa reported a fourth-quarter profit of $258 million, or 24 cents per share, as sales rose 4% to $5.6 billion. Analysts were looking for earnings of 18 cents per share on $5.6 billion in sales. The company also said that global aluminum demand will likely double by 2020. For a look at AA's potential impact on the overall market, click here .
Also, Lennar Corp. ( LEN ) said that its fourth-quarter net profit fell to $32.0 million, or 17 cents per share, from the same period last year, as revenue slipped 6% to $860.1 million. Analysts were expecting earnings of 6 cents per share on sales of $815.75 million. "Although high unemployment, tight lending standards and low consumer confidence continue to present challenges for the housing industry, we are confident that 2011 will be another profitable year," Chief Executive Stuart Miller said.
Finally, Sears Holdings Corp. ( SHLD ) said that it sees adjusted net income for the fourth quarter, ending Jan. 29, at $3.39 to $4.12 per share. The forecast is above the current consensus estimate for earnings of $3.12 per share for the quarter. SHLD also noted that same-store sales are down 1.1% quarter-to-date, with sales rising 3.4% at Kmart and dropping 5.3% at Sears.
Earnings Preview
On the earnings front, SuperValu Inc. ( SVU ) is slated to release its quarterly report. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
November's wholesale inventories is the lone report on the docket today, while the Fed will release its Beige Book for January tomorrow. The weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies will also hit the Street on Wednesday. Thursday offers up the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as December's producer price index, while Friday rounds out the week with December's consumer price index, retail sales figures, and industrial production numbers.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,338,638 call contracts traded on Monday, compared to 733,285 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.55, while the 21-day moving average rose to 0.52.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
The winter 2011 issue of SENTIMENT magazine is now available here.
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading looks strong this morning, as eight of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a gain of 0.70%. In Asia, regional markets gained a lift from rising commodities, while Chinese stocks were boosted by bargain hunting in the property sector. Also, Australia saw weak trading amid massive flooding in the state of Queensland, while Indian stocks snapped a five-session losing streak. Across the pond in Europe, banks are leading the way higher, as sovereign debt concerns eased in the wake of a promise from Japan to purchase debt issued by the European Financial Stability Facility.
Currencies and Commodities
The U.S. dollar is pulling back against the euro this morning, as traders return to the 16-nation currency as European debt concerns ease. At last check, the U.S. Dollar Index was seen up 0.06% at 80.94. Commodities, meanwhile, are modestly higher as the greenback flirts with breakeven. Specifically, crude futures are up 16 cents at $89.41 per barrel in electronic trading, while gold futures have rallied $8.20 to $1,382.30 an ounce in London.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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However, with Japan pledging to buy European debt, and Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) posting a solid quarterly earnings report, tensions on Wall Street have eased considerably. For a look at AA's potential impact on the overall market, click here . The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lost ground for the third day in a row on Monday, as European debt concerns applied pressure to U.S. stocks.
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However, with Japan pledging to buy European debt, and Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) posting a solid quarterly earnings report, tensions on Wall Street have eased considerably. For a look at AA's potential impact on the overall market, click here . In earnings news, Dow component Alcoa reported a fourth-quarter profit of $258 million, or 24 cents per share, as sales rose 4% to $5.6 billion.
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However, with Japan pledging to buy European debt, and Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) posting a solid quarterly earnings report, tensions on Wall Street have eased considerably. For a look at AA's potential impact on the overall market, click here . In earnings news, Dow component Alcoa reported a fourth-quarter profit of $258 million, or 24 cents per share, as sales rose 4% to $5.6 billion.
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However, with Japan pledging to buy European debt, and Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) posting a solid quarterly earnings report, tensions on Wall Street have eased considerably. For a look at AA's potential impact on the overall market, click here . In fact, futures on the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are trading roughly 46 and 4.75 points above fair value, respectively.
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1810.0
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2011-01-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Market Wrap-Up for Jan.11 (AA, LEN, WLT, FLR, BEN, more)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/market-wrap-jan11-aa-len-wlt-flr-ben-more-2011-01-11
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nan
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nan
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With the release of Alcoa's ( AA ) results last night, investors should be getting primed for the deluge of earnings reports due out for the first quarter.
The response to Alcoa's numbers were muted, but homebuilder Lennar Corp ( LEN ) saw some some buyers following the company's report this morning. There is a lot of chatter going on regarding the housing market potentially building a bottom, and we saw a similar positive reaction from the markets when KB Home ( KBH ) reported last week. My gut was that the financials would be the better candidate for a decent rebound in 2011, but it may make sense to watch the homebuilders for anecdotes as well.
I still stick with my thesis on investing in real estate, which is to focus on multi-family/commercial units that throw off numbers that work each month. Buyers simply bought on the hope of price appreciation potential in the recent mania, and you see how that worked out in the end. Any price appreciation you get would be gravy if the rent-roll carries the properties and puts money in your pocket every month. Speculation in flipping condos burned many buyers the last few years and is something I would be guarded against trying. All this said, I still prefer dividend stocks for the liquidity and the fact that there are still great names that can be bought in today's market at current valuations.
Speaking of great names, we just added eight new names to our Best Dividend Stocks list today. Check out the link below if you did not read the e-mail alert we sent out earlier. We prefer investors not hurry into any names we first recommend, but instead look for entry points on pullbacks. Also, the two names that were downgraded today are not sell calls. Those downgrades simply mean that we do not advocate putting any further money into those stocks, if owned.
I'd also like to remind investors that developing a sell discipline is a must. Our general rule is anything that drops 25% from its 52-week high must be examined closely for possible trimming of shares. Too often, investors let underperforming shares pull down their portfolio results for much longer than they should.
Elsewhere in the market today, Wall Street upgrades helped lift stocks like Walter Energy ( WLT ), Fluor Corp ( FLR ), and Franklin Resources ( BEN ) higher. We are continuing to monitor the markets and economic data closely as we position our "Recommended" list to outperform as we move ahead.
If you have been fighting the rally from the March 2009 lows and are sitting on the sidelines still, I would recommend one considers scaling in slowly just to test the water. When you try and time the markets, you can sometimes put yourself in a situation where you forget how stock prices move. Remember, the focus is always on earnings looking forward and not behind. We are still finding attractive valuations as we continue to dig, but that doesn't mean there aren't areas of the markets that are way overvalued from a valuation standpoint, as I see several spots where investors could be vulnerable. Remember that fighting the tape, up or down, is a long-term losing battle.
Thanks for reading and I'll see you tomorrow!
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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With the release of Alcoa's ( AA ) results last night, investors should be getting primed for the deluge of earnings reports due out for the first quarter. The response to Alcoa's numbers were muted, but homebuilder Lennar Corp ( LEN ) saw some some buyers following the company's report this morning. Elsewhere in the market today, Wall Street upgrades helped lift stocks like Walter Energy ( WLT ), Fluor Corp ( FLR ), and Franklin Resources ( BEN ) higher.
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With the release of Alcoa's ( AA ) results last night, investors should be getting primed for the deluge of earnings reports due out for the first quarter. Speaking of great names, we just added eight new names to our Best Dividend Stocks list today. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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With the release of Alcoa's ( AA ) results last night, investors should be getting primed for the deluge of earnings reports due out for the first quarter. All this said, I still prefer dividend stocks for the liquidity and the fact that there are still great names that can be bought in today's market at current valuations. Speaking of great names, we just added eight new names to our Best Dividend Stocks list today.
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With the release of Alcoa's ( AA ) results last night, investors should be getting primed for the deluge of earnings reports due out for the first quarter. All this said, I still prefer dividend stocks for the liquidity and the fact that there are still great names that can be bought in today's market at current valuations. Remember, the focus is always on earnings looking forward and not behind.
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1811.0
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2011-01-11 00:00:00 UTC
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6 Reasons to Like the Aluminum ETF
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/6-reasons-aluminum-etf-2011-01-11
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nan
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nan
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It's a good time for aluminum. Not only is the first exchange traded fund (ETF) to track the metal's producers now trading, but one of the largest producers forecasts a major bump in prices.
Perennial earnings season leader Alcoa Aluminum ( AA ) released its fourth-quarter results, and they did not disappoint.
Not only did the producer's profits beat analyst forecasts, but those profits were the largest since the third quarter of 2008, says Bloomberg .
Alcoa hardly believes aluminum's run is done; it projects global aluminum growth will grow 12% this year.
Aluminum demand rose 14% last year - the biggest increase since 1996.
According to Metal Miner , two key factors in aluminum include the global production projection are the auto market and ETFs.
Global and U.S. manufacturing data continued to be positive late into last year. Coupled with global demand, this should overcome the idle capacity in U.S. aluminum production.
Auto sector demand is poised to be one of the largest drivers of aluminum demand, especially in the United States and China.
There are a few ways to get exposure via ETFs.
Global X Aluminum (NYSEArca: First Aluminum ETF Makes Its Debut.]
PowerShares DB Base Metals (NYSEArca: Will Base Metals ETFs Lead to a Nation of Hoarders?]
iPath DJ-UBS Aluminum ETN ( JJU ) is the exchange traded note ( ETN ) option, which gives exposure to a basket of aluminum futures.
Let's not forget there could soon be a physically-backed aluminum ETF . Watchers say that this has the potential to send prices even further higher when it comes to market.
Tisha Guerrero contributed to this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Perennial earnings season leader Alcoa Aluminum ( AA ) released its fourth-quarter results, and they did not disappoint. According to Metal Miner , two key factors in aluminum include the global production projection are the auto market and ETFs. Coupled with global demand, this should overcome the idle capacity in U.S. aluminum production.
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Perennial earnings season leader Alcoa Aluminum ( AA ) released its fourth-quarter results, and they did not disappoint. According to Metal Miner , two key factors in aluminum include the global production projection are the auto market and ETFs. PowerShares DB Base Metals (NYSEArca: Will Base Metals ETFs Lead to a Nation of Hoarders?]
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Perennial earnings season leader Alcoa Aluminum ( AA ) released its fourth-quarter results, and they did not disappoint. Alcoa hardly believes aluminum's run is done; it projects global aluminum growth will grow 12% this year. According to Metal Miner , two key factors in aluminum include the global production projection are the auto market and ETFs.
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Perennial earnings season leader Alcoa Aluminum ( AA ) released its fourth-quarter results, and they did not disappoint. Alcoa hardly believes aluminum's run is done; it projects global aluminum growth will grow 12% this year. According to Metal Miner , two key factors in aluminum include the global production projection are the auto market and ETFs.
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1812.0
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2011-01-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa Swings to Q4 Profit, Beating View (AA)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoa-swings-q4-profit-beating-view-aa-2011-01-11
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nan
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nan
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a fourth quarter profit, beating analyst expectations, and forecast a 12% rise in aluminum demand in 2011.
The Pittsburgh-based company reported fourth quarter net income of $258 million, or 24 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $277 million, or -28 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding a one-time gain, adjusted profit was 21 cents per share.
Revenue rose 4% from last year to $5.65 billion.
On average, Wall Street analysts expected a smaller profit of 18 cents per share, albeit on slightly higher revenue of $5.71 billion.
Alcoa shares fell 19 cents, or -1.2%, in premarket trading Tuesday.
The Bottom Line
Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .73% dividend yield, based on last night's closing stock price of $16.49. The stock has technical support in the $13 price area. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $17-$18 price levels.
Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .73% dividend yield, based on last night's closing stock price of $16.49. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a fourth quarter profit, beating analyst expectations, and forecast a 12% rise in aluminum demand in 2011. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a fourth quarter profit, beating analyst expectations, and forecast a 12% rise in aluminum demand in 2011. The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .73% dividend yield, based on last night's closing stock price of $16.49. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .73% dividend yield, based on last night's closing stock price of $16.49. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a fourth quarter profit, beating analyst expectations, and forecast a 12% rise in aluminum demand in 2011. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .73% dividend yield, based on last night's closing stock price of $16.49. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a fourth quarter profit, beating analyst expectations, and forecast a 12% rise in aluminum demand in 2011. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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1813.0
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2011-01-10 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: DJIA Futures Pressured by European Debt Concerns
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-djia-futures-pressured-european-debt-concerns-2011-01-10
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nan
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nan
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) retreated roughly 22 points on Friday, as investors debated December's employment data. Unfortunately for Wall Street bulls, European debt concerns have U.S. stocks headed for losses once again this morning, following reports that Portugal is being pressured to accept a bailout. In fact, futures on the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are trading roughly 48 points and 7.5 points below fair value, respectively. The losses have set a sour backdrop for Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), which kicks off the start to the 2010 fourth-quarter earnings season after the close of trading this afternoon.
Technically, the DJIA telegraphed its support and resistance levels on Friday, fluctuating between 11,600 and 11,750. Additional support may be found in the 11,550 region, which is currently home to the Dow's 20-day moving average. The SPX logged a similar performance on Friday, with support emerging near 1,260, while resistance held firm at 1,275. The 1,255 level should provide additional support, if selling pressure takes hold.
In earnings news, Alcoa is expected to post a profit of 19 cents per share in the most recent quarter, up sharply from a profit of just a penny per share in the same quarter last year. Historically, the company has topped expectations in two of the prior four reporting periods, missing in the first and second quarters of 2010. As a result, the company has an average downside surprise of roughly 9.6% during this time frame.
In equity news, Credit Suisse upgraded Vodafone Group PLC ( VOD ) to "outperform" from "neutral." In a note to clients, Credit Suisse said that gaining the iPhone in Germany and the U.S. could allow the company to outperform its peers and return to growth in Europe in the fourth quarter. The broker cautioned, however, that U.S. margins are expected to fall.
Elsewhere, BP plc ( BP ) dropped more than 2% in European trading following the shutdown of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System due to a pumping station leak. The closure has forced oil companies, including BP, which has a 47% stake in the pipeline, to halt 95% of production from the North Slope area.
Finally, LDK Solar Co. ( LDK ) lifted its fourth-quarter revenue and gross margin estimates last night. The company now sees revenue at $870 million to $910 million, up from prior forecasts of $710 million to $750 million. Gross margin should come in at 25% to 27%, compared with LDK's previous expectation of 24% to 26%. Analysts are looking for revenue of $728 million for the quarter.
Earnings Preview
On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will be joined by Helen of Troy Ltd. ( HELE ), Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), and WD-40 Company (WDFC). Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, while tomorrow offers up November's wholesale inventories. On Wednesday, the Fed will release its Beige Book for January, while the weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies will also hit the Street. Thursday offers up the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as December's producer price index, while Friday rounds out the week with December's consumer price index, retail sales figures, and industrial production numbers.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,770,738 call contracts traded on Friday, compared to 891,224 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.50, while the 21-day moving average held at 0.51.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
The winter 2011 issue of SENTIMENT magazine is now available here.
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is in trouble this morning, with only one of the 10 foreign indexes that we track in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a loss of 0.95%. In Asia, stocks headed broadly lower on concerns that Beijing would tighten its property and monetary policies once again. Pressure was also derived from a weak showing in U.S. jobs data on Friday. Across the pond in Europe, banks are leading a steep retreat, as sovereign debt concerns resurfaced following speculation that Portugal is under pressure to take a bailout.
Currencies and Commodities
News of the shutdown of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline over the weekend raised concerns about a short-term disruption in U.S. oil supplies, sending crude futures higher in overnight trading. Heading into the open this morning, crude futures are up 62 cents at $81.13 per barrel, despite a rise in the U.S. dollar. Speaking of the greenback, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen 0.14% to 81.13 in premarket trading. Finally, gold is struggling to make headway this morning, with the most active futures contract down 80 cents at $1,368.10 an ounce in London.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The losses have set a sour backdrop for Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), which kicks off the start to the 2010 fourth-quarter earnings season after the close of trading this afternoon. Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will be joined by Helen of Troy Ltd. ( HELE ), Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), and WD-40 Company (WDFC). In a note to clients, Credit Suisse said that gaining the iPhone in Germany and the U.S. could allow the company to outperform its peers and return to growth in Europe in the fourth quarter.
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The losses have set a sour backdrop for Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), which kicks off the start to the 2010 fourth-quarter earnings season after the close of trading this afternoon. Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will be joined by Helen of Troy Ltd. ( HELE ), Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), and WD-40 Company (WDFC). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) retreated roughly 22 points on Friday, as investors debated December's employment data.
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The losses have set a sour backdrop for Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), which kicks off the start to the 2010 fourth-quarter earnings season after the close of trading this afternoon. Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will be joined by Helen of Troy Ltd. ( HELE ), Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), and WD-40 Company (WDFC). In earnings news, Alcoa is expected to post a profit of 19 cents per share in the most recent quarter, up sharply from a profit of just a penny per share in the same quarter last year.
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The losses have set a sour backdrop for Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), which kicks off the start to the 2010 fourth-quarter earnings season after the close of trading this afternoon. Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will be joined by Helen of Troy Ltd. ( HELE ), Apollo Group Inc. (APOL), and WD-40 Company (WDFC). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) retreated roughly 22 points on Friday, as investors debated December's employment data.
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1814.0
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2011-01-10 00:00:00 UTC
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Stocks Lower as Europe Weighs; Investors Await Alcoa Earnings After Market Close
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stocks-lower-europe-weighs-investors-await-alcoa-earnings-after-market-close-2011-01-10
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nan
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nan
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Stocks are lower in mid-day trading as renewed concerns over the debt situation in Europe quell bulls ahead of earnings season, which unofficially gets underway after the market closes this afternoon with earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ). With no economic data out today, investors eyed deal news as well.
In Europe, sovereign-debt concerns are brewing again following weekend reports that Portugal is being pressured to ask for a bailout. Last year, Greece and Ireland requested financial aid from international lenders.
In deal news, Duke Energy ( DUK ) and Progress Energy ( PGN ) are down after the companies said they will merge. The combined company, to be called Duke Energy, will be the country's largest utility, with approximately $65 billion in enterprise value and $37 billion in market capitalization.
Meanwhile, Genzyme ( GENZ ) shares are higher after Sanofi-Aventis ( SNY ) said takeover talks with the Genzyme now involving executives from both companies. Both sides are reportedly discussing extra payments tied to Lemtrada, an experimental multiple sclerosis drug. There is not guarantee that a deal will be reached, Genzyme reportedly said. Sanofi has already made a hostile bid for the company of $69 a share, which totals $18.5 billion.
Also, Conexant (CNXT) shares have backed off session highs but are still in positive territory after Standard Microsystems (SMSC) said it will buy the chipmaker in a cash and stock deal valued at $284 million, including the assumption of Conexant's debt. Under the terms of the deal, Conexant shareholders will receive the equivalent of $2.25 a share, with half the payment in cash and half in Standard Microsystems stock.
Elsewhere in corporate headlines:
Shares of American International Group (AIG) are down after The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the U.S. government is reviewing bankers this week to manage a public offering of a piece of its majority stake in the insurance giant. Citing people familiar with the matter, the report said the government sent out a request for proposals to banks and securities firms last Thursday.
Shares of MGM Resorts (MGM) are down after the company said CityCenter Holdings, LLC, a joint venture which is 50% owned by a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company and 50% owned by Infinity World Development, proposes to offer $1.1 billion in aggregate principal amount of first and second lien notes in a private placement.
Meanwhile, shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) are down after new data for the company's experiment pancreas drug liprotamase raised doubts about its efficacy, Reuters reports. The drug is not derived from pigs as similar medicines are, reviewers from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration said. Medicines such as liprotamase, which is designed to work for patients who have trouble digesting food because of pancreatic insufficiency, make $1 billion a year, analysts have estimated.
Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Verizon (VZ) are higher in morning trade, with the two expected to announce that Verizon will carry Apple's iPhone on its network. The arrangement has pressured shares of At&T (T), which has been the sole carrier for the iPhone. The move is seen as beneficial to Apple, which is locked in a smartphone battle with Google (GOOG) and its Android mobile operating system.
Epoch Investment Partners Inc (EPHC) shares are down even as the firm said it is increasing its quarterly dividend 20% from $0.05 to $0.06 a share. The dividend is payable Feb. 11 to shareholders of record as of Jan. 28. The firm last week reported a 12% increase in assets under management to $14.3 billion at the end of the December quarter compared to the $12.8 billion managed on Sept. 30.
Ford Motor Co. (F) shares are higher after the automaker said in a statement it will add 7,000 U.S. workers over the next two years. As part of this job growth, Ford will begin recruiting engineers specializing in electrification at the 2011 North American International Auto Show on Wednesday and Thursday.
Commodities are higher. February gold contracts are up $3, or 0.22%, to $1,372 an ounce while February crude oil contacts are up 1.57%, or $1.36, at $89.39 a barrel.
In energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund (USO) is up 1.22% to $38.13 and the United States Natural Gas fund (UNG) is down 1.82% to $5.92.
In precious metal ETFs, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is up 0.22% to $133.87. Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is down 0.07% to $56.71. iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up 1.07% to $28.40.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Stocks are lower in mid-day trading as renewed concerns over the debt situation in Europe quell bulls ahead of earnings season, which unofficially gets underway after the market closes this afternoon with earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ). Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Verizon (VZ) are higher in morning trade, with the two expected to announce that Verizon will carry Apple's iPhone on its network. Elsewhere in corporate headlines: Shares of American International Group (AIG) are down after The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the U.S. government is reviewing bankers this week to manage a public offering of a piece of its majority stake in the insurance giant.
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Stocks are lower in mid-day trading as renewed concerns over the debt situation in Europe quell bulls ahead of earnings season, which unofficially gets underway after the market closes this afternoon with earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ). Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Verizon (VZ) are higher in morning trade, with the two expected to announce that Verizon will carry Apple's iPhone on its network. Under the terms of the deal, Conexant shareholders will receive the equivalent of $2.25 a share, with half the payment in cash and half in Standard Microsystems stock.
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Stocks are lower in mid-day trading as renewed concerns over the debt situation in Europe quell bulls ahead of earnings season, which unofficially gets underway after the market closes this afternoon with earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ). Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Verizon (VZ) are higher in morning trade, with the two expected to announce that Verizon will carry Apple's iPhone on its network. Elsewhere in corporate headlines: Shares of American International Group (AIG) are down after The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the U.S. government is reviewing bankers this week to manage a public offering of a piece of its majority stake in the insurance giant.
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Stocks are lower in mid-day trading as renewed concerns over the debt situation in Europe quell bulls ahead of earnings season, which unofficially gets underway after the market closes this afternoon with earnings from aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ). Shares of Apple (AAPL) and Verizon (VZ) are higher in morning trade, with the two expected to announce that Verizon will carry Apple's iPhone on its network. The combined company, to be called Duke Energy, will be the country's largest utility, with approximately $65 billion in enterprise value and $37 billion in market capitalization.
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1815.0
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2011-01-05 00:00:00 UTC
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3 Stocks to Watch: Alcoa, Petroleo Brasileiro, and Sprint Nextel Corporation
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-watch-alcoa-petroleo-brasileiro-and-sprint-nextel-corporation-2011-01-05
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nan
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nan
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ), Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ), and Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S ). Each day, 3 Stocks to Watch focuses on stocks seeing heavy options trading and gives you a unique insight into each stock's sentiment backdrop.
Alcoa ( AA )
Options traders jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Tuesday, as more than 212,700 contracts crossed the tape. This surge in volume was more than four times the stock's average daily trading volume of 49,992 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. In addition, approximately 63% of the volume changed hands on the call side. Traders may be gearing up for next week, when Alcoa's quarterly report will kick off the earnings season.
Meanwhile, AA puts have been popular on the International Securities Exchange (ISE). The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio comes in at 0.64, which is higher than 64% of the readings taken during the past year, pointing to a rising pessimism.
What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AA comes in at 0.70, which is higher than 85% of all those taken during the past 52 weeks. In other words, short-term options players have been more skeptically aligned toward the shares only 15% of the time during the past 12 months.
Short sellers are adding to their bearish bets. During the most recent reporting period, the number of AA shares sold short increased by 1.05% to 54 million. This accumulation of bearish bets accounts for 5.3% of the company's total float. An unwinding of these pessimistic positions could fuel a significant rally in the shares.
Wall Street hasn't exactly jumped on the stock's bandwagon. According to Zacks , the stock has earned seven "buy" ratings, eight "holds," and one "strong sell." There is ample room for potential upgrades that could add buying pressure to the shares.
Since the beginning of September, the shares of AA have been in a solid uptrend along their 10-day and 20-day moving averages, gaining more than 7% since just the beginning of the week.
Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR )
Petroleo Brasileiro SA ( PBR ) was the center of some brisk options trading on Tuesday, as more than 171,900 contracts changed hands. This jump in volume was more than triple the equity's average daily trading volume of 50,716 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. What's more, roughly 60% of the volume changed hands on the call side.
Call trading is on the rise on the ISE and Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ). During the past 50 trading sessions, 3.3 PBR calls have been purchased to open for every one put purchased to open. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 92% of all those taken during the past 52 weeks, pointing to extreme optimism.
In addition, the SOIR for PBR comes in at 0.70, which is lower than 80% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options players have been more optimistically aligned toward the shares only 20% of the time during the past 12 months.
Wall Street also has a slight bullish bias when it comes to PBR. According to Zacks , the stock has earned six "buy" ratings and five "holds."
From a technical perspective, the shares of PBR are attempting break out of their steep downtrend. The equity has jumped above staunch resistance at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages, which had guided the shares lower from December 2009 through December 2010.
Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S )
Options players flocked to the shares of Sprint Nextel ( S ) on Tuesday, as more than 81,200 contracts crossed the tape. This surge in volume was more than double the stock's average daily trading volume of 36,979 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. Furthermore, traders were feeling somewhat bullish, as 74% of the volume crossed the tape on the call side.
Traders have shown a growing preference for calls on S. During the past two trading weeks, the ISE has seen 7.4 calls purchased to open for every one put purchased to open. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 62% of all those taken during the past year.
Meanwhile, the SOIR for S comes in at 0.28, as call open interest triples put open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This ratio of puts to calls is lower than 88% of all the readings taken during the past 12 months. In other words, short-term options speculators have been more optimistically aligned toward the shares only 12% of the time during the past year.
Short sellers, on the other hand, are slowly adding to their pessimistic positions. During the past month, the number of S shares sold short increased by 1.45% to 132.9 million. This accumulation of pessimistic positions accounts for 4.5% of the company's total float.
Elsewhere, we find that Wall Street maintains a bearish bias toward the shares. According to Zacks , the stock has earned nine "buy" ratings, 15 "holds," and three "sells."
Technically speaking, the shares of S have recently sprung higher with help from their 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The stock is up more than 5% in the last two days, but is facing short-term resistance in the 4.85-4.90 region - an area that has halted the stock's upward progress in the past.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ), Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ), and Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S ). During the most recent reporting period, the number of AA shares sold short increased by 1.05% to 54 million. Alcoa ( AA ) Options traders jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Tuesday, as more than 212,700 contracts crossed the tape.
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ), Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ), and Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S ). Alcoa ( AA ) Options traders jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Tuesday, as more than 212,700 contracts crossed the tape. Meanwhile, AA puts have been popular on the International Securities Exchange (ISE).
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Alcoa ( AA ) Options traders jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Tuesday, as more than 212,700 contracts crossed the tape. Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ), Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ), and Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S ). Meanwhile, AA puts have been popular on the International Securities Exchange (ISE).
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Alcoa ( AA ) Options traders jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Tuesday, as more than 212,700 contracts crossed the tape. Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ), Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ), and Sprint Nextel Corporation ( S ). Meanwhile, AA puts have been popular on the International Securities Exchange (ISE).
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1816.0
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2011-01-04 00:00:00 UTC
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The Surprise Sector That’s Leading Off the New Year
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/surprise-sector-thats-leading-new-year-2011-01-04
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nan
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nan
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Stocks started off the year yesterday with an enthusiastic rally that drove the major indices to new highs and the biggest gain in more than a month.
Financial stocks led the rally with a gain of 2.3% with Bank of America (NYSE: BAC ) climbing 6.4%. The financial giant said that it will take a provision of about $3 billion in Q4 to buy back loans from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae that had been issued by Countrywide Financial.
Alcoa Inc . (NYSE: AA ) and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) also pushed the Dow industrials ahead with Alcoa gaining 2.7% and BA up 1.8%. Both stocks rose as a result of upgrades from Wall Street analysts.
In corporate news, Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS ) jumped 9% after saying that its preliminary holiday same-store sales rose 9.7%. The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX ) was hit with a 2.7% decline due to weaker sales of household products that caused fiscal Q2 earnings to fall below analysts' estimates.
In economic news, construction spending for November increased by 0.4%, which was above the consensus of a 0.2% increase, and the third consecutive monthly increase. The ISM manufacturing index for December improved to 57 from 56.6.
Treasury yields rose to 3.3344% on the benchmark 10-year note, a continuation of a rise in rates that began in October. The euro fell to $1.3351 versus $1.3370 on Friday.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 93 points to 11,671, the S&P 500 gained 14 points at 1,272, and the Nasdaq jumped 39 points to 2,692. The NYSE traded less than 1.2 billion shares with advancers over decliners by 2.8-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 502 million shares with advancers there ahead by over 3-to-1.
Crude oil for delivery in February rose 17 cents to $91.55 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) closed at $68.76, up 3 cents. February gold fell $6.80 to $1,416.10 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) closed at 223.75, down 2.83 points.
What the Markets Are Saying
Yesterday's trading opened with a bang, up about 90 Dow points in three minutes, while the remainder of the day was spent supporting the opening move and adding about 40 more points, which eroded by reason of profit-taking on the close. But it was a wonderful, if not expected, opening for the new year.
Birinyi Associates, via The Wall Street Journal , reminded us of the worn-out phrase, "So goes January, so goes the year." Birinyi pointed out that in the past 82 years, when the S&P 500 rose on the first day of the year, it has averaged a gain of 10.6% for that year. And if stocks climbed for the month, the S&P 500 rose for the year 73% of the time, according to S&P.
But it is the exception that catches us all. Last year, the S&P 500 fell in January, following a strong start, and the index gained 12.6%. The bottom line is that January really has little bearing on the year since the S&P 500 has risen about 70% of the time on a year-to-year basis regardless of January's performance, according to iStockAnalyst.com.
On Dec. 28, I proposed the near-term indices' targets:
Dow 11,785 S&P 500 1,278 Nasdaq 2,700 to 2,710
Yesterday's close puts the Dow just 115 points from the near-term target, while the S&P 500 is a mere 6 points from its goal, and Nasdaq is only 8 points from the bottom of its targeted range. Yesterday's powerful beginning with a new continuation gap from the Nasdaq may run the indices somewhat above projections before we see a meaningful correction.
One of the pleasant surprises of the current strength is the rotation of sector leadership. And one of the most unexpected leaders of the advance is the financial sector. The performance of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF ) since the double-bottom in late August has been spectacular, up 22.6%. And yesterday that sector led all others with a gain of 2.3%. For these reasons, our Trade of the Day is one of the Financial sector ETFs.
Today's Trading Landscape
To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here .
For a list of this week's economic reports due out, click here .
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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(NYSE: AA ) and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) also pushed the Dow industrials ahead with Alcoa gaining 2.7% and BA up 1.8%. Stocks started off the year yesterday with an enthusiastic rally that drove the major indices to new highs and the biggest gain in more than a month. The Clorox Company (NYSE: CLX ) was hit with a 2.7% decline due to weaker sales of household products that caused fiscal Q2 earnings to fall below analysts' estimates.
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(NYSE: AA ) and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) also pushed the Dow industrials ahead with Alcoa gaining 2.7% and BA up 1.8%. On Dec. 28, I proposed the near-term indices' targets: Dow 11,785 S&P 500 1,278 Nasdaq 2,700 to 2,710 Yesterday's close puts the Dow just 115 points from the near-term target, while the S&P 500 is a mere 6 points from its goal, and Nasdaq is only 8 points from the bottom of its targeted range. The performance of the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLF ) since the double-bottom in late August has been spectacular, up 22.6%.
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(NYSE: AA ) and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) also pushed the Dow industrials ahead with Alcoa gaining 2.7% and BA up 1.8%. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 93 points to 11,671, the S&P 500 gained 14 points at 1,272, and the Nasdaq jumped 39 points to 2,692. Birinyi pointed out that in the past 82 years, when the S&P 500 rose on the first day of the year, it has averaged a gain of 10.6% for that year.
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(NYSE: AA ) and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) also pushed the Dow industrials ahead with Alcoa gaining 2.7% and BA up 1.8%. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 93 points to 11,671, the S&P 500 gained 14 points at 1,272, and the Nasdaq jumped 39 points to 2,692. Birinyi pointed out that in the past 82 years, when the S&P 500 rose on the first day of the year, it has averaged a gain of 10.6% for that year.
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1817.0
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2011-01-03 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa Upgraded to “Buy” at Deutsche Bank; Possible Comeback Play in 2011? (AA)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoa-upgraded-buy-deutsche-bank-possible-comeback-play-2011-aa-2011-01-03
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nan
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nan
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Monday saw its rating and price target boosted by analysts at Deutsche Bank.
The firm said it upgraded AA from "Hold" to "Buy" while boosting its price target from $14 to $22. That new target implies a 43% upside to the stock's Friday closing price of $15.39.
A Deutsche Bank analyst cited "growing optimism on both aluminum's likelihood of higher prices and a belief that Alcoa has turned the corner from an operational point of view, which could spark a revaluation of its shares" for the move.
Alcoa shares rose 48 cents, or +3.1%, in premarket trading Monday.
The Bottom Line
Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .78% dividend yield, based on Friday's closing stock price of $15.39. The stock has technical support in the $13 price area. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $17-$18 price levels.
Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Monday saw its rating and price target boosted by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .78% dividend yield, based on Friday's closing stock price of $15.39. The firm said it upgraded AA from "Hold" to "Buy" while boosting its price target from $14 to $22.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Monday saw its rating and price target boosted by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .78% dividend yield, based on Friday's closing stock price of $15.39. The firm said it upgraded AA from "Hold" to "Buy" while boosting its price target from $14 to $22.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Monday saw its rating and price target boosted by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .78% dividend yield, based on Friday's closing stock price of $15.39. The firm said it upgraded AA from "Hold" to "Buy" while boosting its price target from $14 to $22.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Monday saw its rating and price target boosted by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The firm said it upgraded AA from "Hold" to "Buy" while boosting its price target from $14 to $22. The Bottom Line Shares of Alcoa ( AA ) have a .78% dividend yield, based on Friday's closing stock price of $15.39.
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1818.0
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2011-01-03 00:00:00 UTC
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New Money Should Hold Off a Correction – For Now
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/new-money-should-hold-correction-now-2011-01-03
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nan
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nan
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Although Friday's major indices had a mixed close, the month was one of the best in recent years with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 5.2% in December, missing a new closing high for the year by just under 8 points. It gained 11.02% for the full year.
The Dow industrials were led by Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) on Friday, up 1.2%, and American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ), up 0.96%. Energy stocks lagged on Friday with Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) off 0.38% and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) down 0.31%. Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT ) was the Dow's best performing stock of the year, up 64%, and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ ) led the non-performers, off 18%.
Friday's trading was again characterized by light volume (second lowest of the year) and low volatility. But a rally in the last 10 minutes of trading regained 18 points, which gave the Dow a positive close on the last day of the year. There were few corporate developments and no economic reports.
Treasury bonds rose on Friday with the benchmark 10-year note up 20/32 to yield 3.29%, and the 30-year bond's yield closed at 4.345%. The euro rallied to $1.3369, up from $1.3290 on Thursday.
At Friday's close, the rose 8 points to close at 11,578, the S&P 500 fell a fraction at 1,258, and the Nasdaq was off 10 points at 2,653. The NYSE traded just 592 million shares and the Nasdaq traded 297 million. On the NYSE, advancers led decliners by 1.9-to-1, but on the Nasdaq, decliners were ahead by 1.4-to-1.
For the month, the Dow rose 5.1%, the S&P 500 gained 6.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.3%. For the year, the Dow rose 10.8%, the S&P 500 gained 12.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 16.9%.
On Friday, crude oil for February delivery settled at $94.75, up $1.54, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) rose 10 cents to $68.25. Crude rose 15.1% for the year. February gold rose $15.50 to $1,421.40 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) rose 2.39 points to close at 226.58. Gold rose 29.7% for the year.
What the Markets Are Saying
On Friday, the stock market saw light volume and little action until just before the final bell when a sell program hit that drove stocks down almost 25 points in less than a minute, and then a buy program that took back all of the losses and in 15 minutes ran the Dow to a positive close.
All of this last-minute maneuvering could be tax motivated by sellers, and then a rebound supported by bargain hunters. As for the internal indicators, momentum has turned sideways to lower, the stochastics are telling us to sell, MACD just flashed a sell signal and is turning negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of each of the major indices are near 2010′s highs.
Our two sentiment surveys, which are both contra-indicators, show that the public and advisors are still very bullish, and that is not good. The Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey said that bullish sentiment fell slightly but remains at high levels. The percentage of individual investors who expect stocks to rise over the next six months fell 11.7% to 51.6%. But this is the 17th consecutive week that bullish sentiment has held above its historical average of 39%. The number of bearish respondents rose to 20.11%, up 3.6%.
As for the Investors Intelligence survey, the advisors became slightly more cautious with the number of bulls falling to 55.6% from 58.8% last week. It should be pointed out that the loss of bulls is a positive sign, but since it came on the heels of the most bulls of 2010 and the highest number since 2007, it is most likely of little significance.
So both our internal and sentiment indicators are now very overbought. But with an enormous inflow of cash into the system from pension and profit sharing plans, 401(k) plans, and other sources that put money to work early in the year, I'd be surprised to see a pullback before mid-January. However, with momentum lagging and plenty of optimism heard from the financial press, complacency as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still very low, having just reversed from close to its low of the year at around 16.
For the very near term, look for stocks to continue with the plodding advance seen in December. But once the new money is spent, be prepared for a correction that could take stocks down to at least the breakout number of November and possibly even to the bottom of the S&P support zone of 1,174 to 1,210. A pullback in mid to late January would be welcome since it could provide an excellent opportunity to jump on some of our favorite growth and cyclical stocks.
The targets for 2011 for the major indices were outlined late last year and remain at 1,400 for the S&P 500, 12,800 for the Dow, and 3,700 for the Nasdaq.
For one ETF that looks headed higher in January, see the Trade of the Day .
Today's Trading Landscape
To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here .
For a list of this week's economic reports due out, click here .
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The Dow industrials were led by Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) on Friday, up 1.2%, and American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ), up 0.96%. On Friday, crude oil for February delivery settled at $94.75, up $1.54, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) rose 10 cents to $68.25. But once the new money is spent, be prepared for a correction that could take stocks down to at least the breakout number of November and possibly even to the bottom of the S&P support zone of 1,174 to 1,210.
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The Dow industrials were led by Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) on Friday, up 1.2%, and American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ), up 0.96%. Although Friday's major indices had a mixed close, the month was one of the best in recent years with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 5.2% in December, missing a new closing high for the year by just under 8 points. The NYSE traded just 592 million shares and the Nasdaq traded 297 million.
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The Dow industrials were led by Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) on Friday, up 1.2%, and American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ), up 0.96%. Although Friday's major indices had a mixed close, the month was one of the best in recent years with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 5.2% in December, missing a new closing high for the year by just under 8 points. For the year, the Dow rose 10.8%, the S&P 500 gained 12.6%, and the Nasdaq rose 16.9%.
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The Dow industrials were led by Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) on Friday, up 1.2%, and American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ), up 0.96%. But a rally in the last 10 minutes of trading regained 18 points, which gave the Dow a positive close on the last day of the year. At Friday's close, the rose 8 points to close at 11,578, the S&P 500 fell a fraction at 1,258, and the Nasdaq was off 10 points at 2,653.
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1819.0
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2010-12-29 00:00:00 UTC
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Options Update: Put Players Maintain a Bearish Outlook on Alcoa
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/options-update-put-players-maintain-bearish-outlook-alcoa-2010-12-29
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) hasn't followed its Dow brethren into the black today, with the aluminum issue shedding roughly 0.5% to trade around $15.19. However, AA has been hovering just above $15 for the past several days, with the shares taking a break after their impressive December rally. In fact, AA is now hovering near its January highs in the $16 neighborhood. With the equity's 10-week moving average moving in to meet up with the shares, AA could be well-poised to begin the next leg of its uptrend.
However, it doesn't seem that traders are counting on AA to rally anytime soon, as evidenced by today's heavy put activity. So far, roughly 18,000 AA puts have changed hands -- nearly triple the equity's expected single-session put volume, and double the number of calls traded today.
Today's most popular option has been AA's January 16 put, with nearly 12,000 contracts changing hands. Most of these puts traded between the bid and ask prices, making it difficult to determine whether these contracts were bought or sold. However, with just 3,214 contracts currently open at this strike, it appears that fresh puts are, in fact, being added at this in-the-money strike.
A few strikes lower, AA's January 14 put has also been a popular choice today, with nearly 4,300 contracts traded -- the bulk of which crossed the tape at the ask price, suggesting that they were likely purchased. If these puts were bought to open, it would seem that traders are betting on AA to backpedal beneath the $14 level over the next few weeks.
For the record, peak put open interest for the January series of options can be found at AA's 15 strike, which is currently right at the money.
The Street is, by and large, relatively skeptical of the Dow diva, as evidenced by the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.67, which ranks above 75% of all other readings taken during the past year. In other words, short-term option players have been more pessimistically aligned toward AA just one-quarter of the time during the last 12 months.
In the same bearish vein, short interest on AA increased by 1.1% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for 54.1 million shares, or 5.3%, of the stock's total available float.
Even analysts have their doubts about AA. According to Zacks, seven brokerage firms deem the shares worthy of a "buy" or better rating, while nine analysts maintain a "hold" or worse rating on the equity.
From a contrarian perspective, an overflow of pessimism levied against a technically strong stock can actually lay the groundwork for a strong bullish case. With AA docked above strong technical support, a reversal of sentiment from the skeptics could boost the shares into annual high territory.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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A few strikes lower, AA's January 14 put has also been a popular choice today, with nearly 4,300 contracts traded -- the bulk of which crossed the tape at the ask price, suggesting that they were likely purchased. In the same bearish vein, short interest on AA increased by 1.1% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for 54.1 million shares, or 5.3%, of the stock's total available float. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) hasn't followed its Dow brethren into the black today, with the aluminum issue shedding roughly 0.5% to trade around $15.19.
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Today's most popular option has been AA's January 16 put, with nearly 12,000 contracts changing hands. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) hasn't followed its Dow brethren into the black today, with the aluminum issue shedding roughly 0.5% to trade around $15.19. However, AA has been hovering just above $15 for the past several days, with the shares taking a break after their impressive December rally.
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So far, roughly 18,000 AA puts have changed hands -- nearly triple the equity's expected single-session put volume, and double the number of calls traded today. Today's most popular option has been AA's January 16 put, with nearly 12,000 contracts changing hands. A few strikes lower, AA's January 14 put has also been a popular choice today, with nearly 4,300 contracts traded -- the bulk of which crossed the tape at the ask price, suggesting that they were likely purchased.
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In fact, AA is now hovering near its January highs in the $16 neighborhood. Today's most popular option has been AA's January 16 put, with nearly 12,000 contracts changing hands. A few strikes lower, AA's January 14 put has also been a popular choice today, with nearly 4,300 contracts traded -- the bulk of which crossed the tape at the ask price, suggesting that they were likely purchased.
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1820.0
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2010-12-27 00:00:00 UTC
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First Glimpse at 2011 Market Targets
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/first-glimpse-2011-market-targets-2010-12-27
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nan
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nan
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China raised interest rates by 25 basis points this past weekend, and the world's stock markets did a flip - that is, all of the world's markets except in the United States. Here stocks opened lower as a result of the holiday surprise, but then spent most of the day recovering from the early losses and finally closed mixed.
Following the surprise announcement from China's central bank, the financials rallied, led by regional banks. Then technology stocks caught the breeze, and the remainder of the day was spent in a recovery. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC ) rose 1.6% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM ) gained 1.4%. And Cisco Systems, Inc . (NASDAQ: CSCO ) rose 2.4% following a Barron's article that said the tech giant is undervalued.
The energy sector fell, as did most commodities, based on the fear that an increase in rates would result in lower demand. But even in the energy and metals sectors, the losses were minimal. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 0.7% and the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB ) closed 0.81% higher.
In corporate news, H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB ) fell 7% after it said that HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HBC ) would not provide funding for its refund-anticipation loans. American International Group, Inc . (NYSE: AIG ) popped 9.3% after it entered into three credit facilities for a total of $4.3 billion designed to allow them to make loans.
Treasurys rose following a successful two-year note auction, which sold at a yield of 0.74%. The benchmark 10-year note rose 0.3125% to yield 3.354%, and the 30-year bond rose 0.7188% to yield 4.426%. The euro rose to $1.3155, up from $1.3116 on Friday.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 18 points to 11,555, the S&P 500 gained a point at 1,258, and the Nasdaq gained 2 points to 2,667. The NYSE traded just 467 million shares making yesterday the slowest day of the year. And the Nasdaq crossed just 263 million shares. On both exchanges, advancers were ahead of decliners by about 1.3-to-1.
Despite the fierce storm that tore across the eastern Unites States, crude oil for February delivery fell 51 cents to $91 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) fell 24 cents to $67.17. February gold rose $2.40 to $1,382.90, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) fell 0.76 points to 220.5.
What the Markets Are Saying
How much can be gained by studying the lowest volume day of the year? Well, there are some pearls of wisdom to be gleaned from yesterday's tape action. The Chinese rate hike, coupled with a lightly staffed financial industry, had all of the ingredients necessary to produce a big low-volume sell-off. And when the Dow opened down by over 50 points, the day traders tightened their seat belts in anticipation of the big crash that never came.
Within 30 minutes of the opening, most of the early losses were erased, and the market spent the remainder of the day in a sleepy retracement that ended with mixed results. So, again, the stock market turned aside from the bad news and rallied - a very good sign for the bulls.
Yesterday, I promised that I'd provide the targets for each of the indices for the current advance. To do this, we must go back to 2008, since it is there that a major support zone was violated as the bear market entered its final plunge.
The Dow Industrials broke support in June 2008, at 11,785, and a mid-August rally failed at that spot, leading to an acceleration in downside volume as the market rolled over. That's the immediate target and equates to 1,278 for the S&P 500, and 8,365 for the NYSE Composite. The Nasdaq is a bit higher at 2,700 to 2,710.
But the overall target for 2011 is much more aggressive. Assuming that the S&P500 continues to hold above the recent breakout at 1,227, the overall target for 2011 is 1,400. For the Dow, it is 12,800, and for the Nasdaq it is 3,700. Later, I'll explain how I arrived at those numbers and provide some long-term investment ideas based on ETFs that could make 2011 a big winner for our readers .
For one ETF to buy now, see the Trade of the Day .
Today's Trading Landscape
To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here .
For a list of this week's economic reports due out, click here .
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 0.7% and the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB ) closed 0.81% higher. Here stocks opened lower as a result of the holiday surprise, but then spent most of the day recovering from the early losses and finally closed mixed. Within 30 minutes of the opening, most of the early losses were erased, and the market spent the remainder of the day in a sleepy retracement that ended with mixed results.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 0.7% and the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB ) closed 0.81% higher. Here stocks opened lower as a result of the holiday surprise, but then spent most of the day recovering from the early losses and finally closed mixed. The NYSE traded just 467 million shares making yesterday the slowest day of the year.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 0.7% and the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB ) closed 0.81% higher. Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC ) rose 1.6% and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM ) gained 1.4%. In corporate news, H&R Block, Inc. (NYSE: HRB ) fell 7% after it said that HSBC Holdings plc (NYSE: HBC ) would not provide funding for its refund-anticipation loans.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 0.7% and the PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE: DBB ) closed 0.81% higher. The benchmark 10-year note rose 0.3125% to yield 3.354%, and the 30-year bond rose 0.7188% to yield 4.426%. The NYSE traded just 467 million shares making yesterday the slowest day of the year.
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1821.0
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2010-12-02 00:00:00 UTC
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Profits Could Double or More at These Firms
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/profits-could-double-or-more-these-firms-2010-12-02
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nan
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nan
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The impressive trading action on Wednesday holds an important lesson for investors. In the absence of any dire economic news, investors are playing a bullish hand.
Earlier in the week, economic woes in Europe had pushed many to the sidelines. With a sense that a fresh crisis in Europe can be averted (at least as seen by the euro's rebound on Wednesday), investors marked up stocks with big gains across the broad. By that logic, a reasonably benign global economic picture in 2011 could keep investors in a buying mood.
Where will they turn? Growth stocks. At this phase of the economic cycle, investors tend to gravitate toward companies with the most robust growth prospects. With that in mind, here's a look at companies in the S&P 500 that are expected to at least double their profits in 2011. If we are indeed on the cusp of an economic upturn that lasts into 2012 and beyond, then profits for these firms are likely to keep growing.
Even as these companies are expected to post solid profit rebounds next year, their share prices have also been on the rise and most don't appear to be bargains in the context of near-term profits. Instead, if you think that 2011 is just the start of a profit rebound, then it pays to look at these stocks in terms of their peakearnings performance (I went back and looked at the strongest year of profits of the last decade for each company).
When viewed in that light, some of these stocks are quite cheap: The major steel and aluminum makers and a number of banks trade for less than five times peakearnings . Then again, staffing stocks Monster Worldwide ( MWW ) and Robert Half ( RHI ) are no bargain, trading for more than 15 times their best year ever.
Looking at peak profitability may be a bit misleading. Alcoa ( AA ) and U.S. Steel ( X ) benefited from runaway prices in 2007, and it's unlikely we'll see such a bubble again anytime soon. I still think Alcoa can earn more than $2 a share within a few years, which makes the stock pretty appealing at a recent $13. [Read why I think it's the best rebound play in the Dow ]
In a similar vein, I'm bullish on online brokers if individual investors continue to show their enthusiasm for stocks once again. E*Trade (Nasdaq: ETFC) , which has rebounded from a very bad bet on mortgages, remains one of the leading choices for retail investors, which I noted recently .
The long-term winners
Yet it's the regional banks and financial services firms that may be the most appealing names in this group, as they have yet to truly rebound from the 2008 economic crisis but are poised for significant sales and profit growth in the next five years if the U.S.economy can generate a sustained rebound.
For example, analysts think Comerica ( CMA ) can boostearnings per share (EPS) sharply next year to around $1.70, yet they also think profits can rise more than +50% again in 2012 to around $2.80 a share. By next year, analysts may start to look even further out, projectingEPS of north of $4 within a few years. Meanwhile,shares trade not far above tangible book value of $32.
Comerica routinely offered adividend in the $2.00-$2.50 range until thedividend was sharply cut in 2009. It may be a year or two before thedividend payout moves back north of $2, but shares wouldyield close to 6% if profits rise as expected and thedividend is restored.
In a similar vein, Huntington Bancshares (Nasdaq: HBAN) may appear reasonably valued at around 13 times projected 2011 profits. But the fact thatshares trade for just three times peak profits should get your attention. Huntington is heavily exposed to the auto loan market, and if auto sales rebound in coming years as many suspect, then this segment should be a solid driver for profits. The company has long been bandied about as takeover fodder, but it could also look to make acquisitions, as many smaller regional banks could be digested in a profit-boosting fashion. As a last bit of context, Huntington used to offer an annualdividend of around $1 a share. Withshares now below $6, an eventual return to that payout would be a major boost forshares .
Action to Take --> It's important to play close attention to theeconomy . We may be on track for further muddled growth in 2011 -- or we just might be at the start of a robust economic upturn .
If we are indeed headed for faster economic growth, then many investors will start to look ahead to find the great growth stories of 2012 and beyond. The companies in the table above look like the names to watch.
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) and U.S. Steel ( X ) benefited from runaway prices in 2007, and it's unlikely we'll see such a bubble again anytime soon. With a sense that a fresh crisis in Europe can be averted (at least as seen by the euro's rebound on Wednesday), investors marked up stocks with big gains across the broad. [Read why I think it's the best rebound play in the Dow ] In a similar vein, I'm bullish on online brokers if individual investors continue to show their enthusiasm for stocks once again.
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Alcoa ( AA ) and U.S. Steel ( X ) benefited from runaway prices in 2007, and it's unlikely we'll see such a bubble again anytime soon. Even as these companies are expected to post solid profit rebounds next year, their share prices have also been on the rise and most don't appear to be bargains in the context of near-term profits. It may be a year or two before thedividend payout moves back north of $2, but shares wouldyield close to 6% if profits rise as expected and thedividend is restored.
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Alcoa ( AA ) and U.S. Steel ( X ) benefited from runaway prices in 2007, and it's unlikely we'll see such a bubble again anytime soon. Even as these companies are expected to post solid profit rebounds next year, their share prices have also been on the rise and most don't appear to be bargains in the context of near-term profits. Instead, if you think that 2011 is just the start of a profit rebound, then it pays to look at these stocks in terms of their peakearnings performance (I went back and looked at the strongest year of profits of the last decade for each company).
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Alcoa ( AA ) and U.S. Steel ( X ) benefited from runaway prices in 2007, and it's unlikely we'll see such a bubble again anytime soon. Growth stocks. For example, analysts think Comerica ( CMA ) can boostearnings per share (EPS) sharply next year to around $1.70, yet they also think profits can rise more than +50% again in 2012 to around $2.80 a share.
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1822.0
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2010-11-22 00:00:00 UTC
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9 Mining and Metals Stocks to Sell
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/9-mining-and-metals-stocks-sell-2010-11-22
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nan
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nan
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There's a lot of talk about inflation in the works after the latest round of "quantitative easing" by the Federal Reserve. Printing $600 billion in cash is likely going to devalue the dollar and drive up inflationary pressure. But if you think that means you can just buy into commodity stocks - that is oil, gold, steel and ag companies - you're mistaken. The bottom line is that inflation will only help the bottom line of a select group of companies. Others will suffer from higher costs, lower margins or just plain old poor management.
To help you maximize your inflation investments, here are nine metal and mining stocks you should avoid. Despite inflationary pressure on commodity prices, these miners have dug themselves too deep a hole to be good investments in 2011.
Posco ( PKX )
Based in Korea, Posco (NYSE: PKX ) is an integrated steel producer that produced approximately 31.7 million tons of crude steel in 2009. 2010 has been a forgettable year for PKX, as the stock is down 23.5% year to date. More recently, this mining stock has dropped 12% since Oct. 1. Posco also had some distressing numbers in its last income statement, as the company reported a quarterly revenue growth of 14.8%, year-over-year. Priced at $100.34, PKX stock is down over $40 from its 52-week high.
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID )
Campanhia Siderurgica Nacional (NYSE: SID ) is an integrated steel producer operating in Brazil and Latin America. Its three operating segments are steel, mining and logistics. Since mid-April, this stock has fallen 17.6%, and SID is down 4.6% over the past 12 months. Recently, Zacks Investment Research downgraded SID stock to "underperforming" from neutral. In its last earnings report, SID announced that it missed earnings estimate by 31%. Currently trading at $16.90, SID is definitely a mining stock to avoid right now.
Alcoa ( AA )
Based in Pittsburgh, Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) produces and manages primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina combined. Year-to-date Alcoa has lost 17.4% of its stock price. The bad news continues as AA reported that earnings dropped 20.8% year-over-year, in its last financial statement. Additionally, BMO Capital Markets recently downgraded its position in AA based on the demand for aluminum in American and foreign markets. Alcoa stock may only cost $13.36, but it should still be sold at this time.
Sterlite Industries ( SLT )
Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ) is a non-ferrous metals and mining company that operates extensively in the United Arab Emirates. Since January, this stock has dropped -14%, compared to gains by the broader markets. Another unsavory statistic coming from SLT's last income statement is its quarterly revenue, which was reported as dropping 0.4% from the year-earlier period. While the stock may have rebounded slightly since September, SLT dropped nearly 4% last week alone.
Kinross Gold ( KGC )
Headquartered in Toronto, Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC ) is involved with the exploration and acquisition of gold-bearing properties, as well as a wide variety of other mining activities. 2010 has been an up-and-down year for KGC, and overall the stock is down 2.5% year-to-date. Since Oct. 1, the stock has lost 4.5%. On the earnings front, analysts have scaled back slightly on their estimates for next quarter at 15 cents, after the company posted an actual EPS of 16 cents last quarter.
Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH)
As its name suggests, Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH ) is an aluminum company with operations bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminum smelting and aluminum fabrication. Year-to-date, ACH stock has slid 15.7%, compared to small gains by the broader markets. More recently, the mining stock is down 3.5% since the beginning of October. Trading at $22.95, ACH is down from its 52-week high of $34.27.
Nucor Corp. (NUE)
Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE ) manufactures steel and steel products, and rounds out the list of top mining stocks to sell. Since January, NUE stock is down 18.4%. The stock has leveled off lately, but is still underperforming. Since Oct. 1, NUE is down 0.4%. Last quarter, Nucor also missed its earnings estimates by 36.4%. Trading at $38.07, Nucor is less than $3 above its 52-week low of $35.71. Sell this mining stock now.
As of this writing, Louis Navellier did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Based in Pittsburgh, Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) produces and manages primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina combined. The bad news continues as AA reported that earnings dropped 20.8% year-over-year, in its last financial statement. Additionally, BMO Capital Markets recently downgraded its position in AA based on the demand for aluminum in American and foreign markets.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Based in Pittsburgh, Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) produces and manages primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina combined. The bad news continues as AA reported that earnings dropped 20.8% year-over-year, in its last financial statement. Additionally, BMO Capital Markets recently downgraded its position in AA based on the demand for aluminum in American and foreign markets.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Based in Pittsburgh, Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) produces and manages primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina combined. The bad news continues as AA reported that earnings dropped 20.8% year-over-year, in its last financial statement. Additionally, BMO Capital Markets recently downgraded its position in AA based on the demand for aluminum in American and foreign markets.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Based in Pittsburgh, Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) produces and manages primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina combined. The bad news continues as AA reported that earnings dropped 20.8% year-over-year, in its last financial statement. Additionally, BMO Capital Markets recently downgraded its position in AA based on the demand for aluminum in American and foreign markets.
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1823.0
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2010-11-12 00:00:00 UTC
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Commodities Finish Lower as Oil, Gold Futures Succumb to China Interest Rate Fears
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/commodities-finish-lower-oil-gold-futures-succumb-china-interest-rate-fears-2010-11-12
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nan
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nan
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Fears that the Chinese government will raise interest rates to rein in inflation pushed crude-oil futures sharply into the red to finish the week. Gold futures also closed lower.
Crude oil for January delivery finished down $3.30, or 2.9%, at $84.88 a barrel. In other energy futures, heating oil was down 2.46% to $2.36 a gallon while natural gas fell 3.08%, to $3.80 per million British thermal units.
In energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund ( USO ) is down 3.22% to $36.62. The United States Natural Gas ETF ( UNG ) is down 2.96% to $5.50.
Meanwhile, gold sold off over fears about China's inflation-fighting measures as the dollar weakened against a basket of foreign currencies.
Gold for December delivery finished down 0.3% to $1,365.50 an ounce. In other metal futures, silver fell 5.3% to $25.94 a troy ounce while copper fell 3.2% to $3.89 a pound.
In metal ETFs, SPDR Gold Trust ( GLD ) is down 3.2% to $133.27. Market Vectors Gold Miners ( GDX ) is down 3.11% to $59.86. iShares Silver Trust ( SLV ) is down 6.42% to $25.37.
Commodities to watch:
--Sugar futures plunged 12%--a record, Bloomberg notes--amid China-stoked fears that interest rates in that country will increase. Refined sugar futures fell $91.50, or 12%, to close at $677.10 a metric ton
Commodity stocks to watch:
--Aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ) fell sharply over concern--like many other commodities stocks--that China would pull back spending on raw materials. Alcoa shares are down 2.24% to $13.50.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Refined sugar futures fell $91.50, or 12%, to close at $677.10 a metric ton Commodity stocks to watch: --Aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ) fell sharply over concern--like many other commodities stocks--that China would pull back spending on raw materials. Fears that the Chinese government will raise interest rates to rein in inflation pushed crude-oil futures sharply into the red to finish the week. In other energy futures, heating oil was down 2.46% to $2.36 a gallon while natural gas fell 3.08%, to $3.80 per million British thermal units.
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Refined sugar futures fell $91.50, or 12%, to close at $677.10 a metric ton Commodity stocks to watch: --Aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ) fell sharply over concern--like many other commodities stocks--that China would pull back spending on raw materials. In energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund ( USO ) is down 3.22% to $36.62. The United States Natural Gas ETF ( UNG ) is down 2.96% to $5.50.
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Refined sugar futures fell $91.50, or 12%, to close at $677.10 a metric ton Commodity stocks to watch: --Aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ) fell sharply over concern--like many other commodities stocks--that China would pull back spending on raw materials. In other energy futures, heating oil was down 2.46% to $2.36 a gallon while natural gas fell 3.08%, to $3.80 per million British thermal units. In other metal futures, silver fell 5.3% to $25.94 a troy ounce while copper fell 3.2% to $3.89 a pound.
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Refined sugar futures fell $91.50, or 12%, to close at $677.10 a metric ton Commodity stocks to watch: --Aluminum producer Alcoa ( AA ) fell sharply over concern--like many other commodities stocks--that China would pull back spending on raw materials. In energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund ( USO ) is down 3.22% to $36.62. In other metal futures, silver fell 5.3% to $25.94 a troy ounce while copper fell 3.2% to $3.89 a pound.
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1824.0
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2010-11-01 00:00:00 UTC
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3 Stocks to Watch: Alcoa, Avanir Pharmaceuticals, and Research In Motion Limited
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-watch-alcoa-avanir-pharmaceuticals-and-research-motion-limited-2010-11-01
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nan
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nan
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ) and Avanir Pharmaceuticals ( AVNR ), while put trading jumped on Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM ). Each day, 3 Stocks to Watch focuses on stocks seeing heavy options trading and gives you a unique insight into each stock's sentiment backdrop.
Alcoa ( AA )
Options players jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Friday, as more than 126,000 contracts crossed the tape. This surge in volume was more than double the stock's average daily trading volume of 59,596 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. In addition, traders were feeling optimistic, as 85% of the volume changed hands on the call side.
Overall, however, put trading has been on the rise toward the shares. The International Securities Exchange (ISE) has reported 1.6 puts purchased to open for every one call purchased to open during the past 52 weeks. This ratio of puts to calls is higher than 98.8% of all those taken during the past 52 weeks.
What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AA comes in at 0.76, which is higher than 97% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options players have been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares only 3% of the time during the past 52 weeks.
Short sellers are also skeptical of the shares. During the past month, the number of AA shares sold short increased by 9.7% to 70 million. This accumulation of bearish bets accounts for nearly 7% of the company's total float.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is somewhat mixed in its outlook. According to Zacks , the stock has earned nine "buy" ratings, six "holds," and one "strong sell."
Technically speaking, the shares of AA are down more than 18% since the beginning of 2010. The stock recently bounced off long-term support at the 10 level, and climbed above its 10-week and 20-week moving averages in an attempt to break out of its downtrend.
Avanir Pharmaceuticals ( AVNR )
Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc. ( AVNR ) announced Friday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved its Nuedexta drug as the first treatment for pseudobulbar affect, which is marked by episodes of uncontrollable laughing or crying. The drug developer said it expects Nuedexta to be available by prescription in the first quarter.
Ahead of the news, traders jumped on the stock's options, as more than 80,600 contracts changed hands. This surge in volume was more than seven times the stock's average daily trading volume of 10,393 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. Furthermore, roughly 61% of the volume changed hands on the call side.
Sentiment data on the shares is rather light. The SOIR for AVNR comes in at 0.46, as call open interest doubles put open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months.
Meanwhile, short sellers have increased their bearish bets. During the past month, the number of AVNR shares sold short has jumped more than 15% to 12 million. This accumulation of bearish bets accounts for more than 19% of the company's float, and is four times the stock's average daily trading volume.
Finally, the stock has largely been ignored by Wall Street. According to Zacks , all three of the analysts following the company rate it a "strong buy," leaving ample room for more brokerage firms to jump on the stock's bandwagon.
From a technical perspective, the shares of AVNR are up more than 27% since the beginning of the year, and have more than doubled this morning. The stock has steadily climbed along the support of its 10-month and 20-month moving averages since April 2009.
Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM )
Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM ) on Friday said its talks with the Indian government continue to be constructive and that it remains optimistic about reaching a "positive and final" resolution. India, which wants access to RIMM communications for what it calls national security reasons, has threatened to ban all BlackBerry use in the country. India gave a 60-day reprieve to the company at the end of August after being offered access to some BlackBerry data, a move yet to be confirmed by the Canadian firm.
RIMM has been the center of some brisk options trading, as more than 181,800 contracts changed hands on Friday. This jump in volume was more than double the stock's average daily trading volume of 80,978 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. What's more, roughly 65% of the volume changed hands on the put side.
Friday's put trading runs counter to the recent trend seen on the ISE. During the past two trading weeks, 2.25 calls have been purchased to open for every one put purchased to open. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 88% of all those taken during the past 10 trading sessions, pointing to rising optimism.
However, sentiment is far from an optimistic extreme. The SOIR for RIMM comes in at 0.90, as put open interest nearly equals call open interest among options slated to expire in less than three months. This ratio of puts to calls is higher than 87% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options players have been more pessimistically aligned toward the shares only 13% of the time during the past 12 months.
Short interest is also on the rise. During the past month, the number of RIMM shares sold short increased by 17% to 32.3 million. This accumulation of bearish bets accounts for nearly 7% of the company's total float.
From a technical perspective, the shares of RIMM are up about 0.6% this morning. The stock has recently climbed back above its 10-week and 20-week moving averages - trendlines that have guided the shares lower since April 2010.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ) and Avanir Pharmaceuticals ( AVNR ), while put trading jumped on Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM ). Alcoa ( AA ) Options players jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Friday, as more than 126,000 contracts crossed the tape. What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AA comes in at 0.76, which is higher than 97% of all those taken during the past year.
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ) and Avanir Pharmaceuticals ( AVNR ), while put trading jumped on Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM ). Alcoa ( AA ) Options players jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Friday, as more than 126,000 contracts crossed the tape. What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AA comes in at 0.76, which is higher than 97% of all those taken during the past year.
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ) and Avanir Pharmaceuticals ( AVNR ), while put trading jumped on Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM ). Alcoa ( AA ) Options players jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Friday, as more than 126,000 contracts crossed the tape. What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AA comes in at 0.76, which is higher than 97% of all those taken during the past year.
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Today's column includes a look at a rise in call trading on Alcoa ( AA ) and Avanir Pharmaceuticals ( AVNR ), while put trading jumped on Research In Motion Limited ( RIMM ). Alcoa ( AA ) Options players jumped on the shares of Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Friday, as more than 126,000 contracts crossed the tape. What's more, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for AA comes in at 0.76, which is higher than 97% of all those taken during the past year.
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1825.0
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2010-10-22 00:00:00 UTC
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4 Industries Profiting from Deflation
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-industries-profiting-deflation-2010-10-22
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nan
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nan
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Deflation has become a central concern these days. The Federal Reserve sweats the notion of falling prices across theeconomy , as it tends shrink asset values even as debts against those assets remain constant. And companies hate deflation , because it usually signals weakening revenue, margins and profits. For many firms, it's simply impossible to even think about raising prices. But in a few industries, pricing power has come back, and investors may be underestimating the futureearnings power that can result.
Fewer planes means more pricing power
When the airlines experienced the turbulence of 2008, they took a lot of planes out ofcommission . And as soon as theeconomy rebounded and demand for air travel started to build, many assumed that the airlines would simply bring all those mothballed planes back on line. It hasn't happened. Instead, airlines saw this as an opportunity to not shoot themselves in the foot, which they had done every time before.
A quick glance at Delta 's ( DAL ) recent quarterly results spells out the benefits of restrained capacity. The nation's largest carrier boosted the number of planes in service by 2%, but demand was more robust than last summer, helpingDelta to boost revenue per passenger from $12.22 per mile flown to $14.22 -- a +16% jump.
The payoff: Analysts at Bank of America note that the publicly-traded U.S.-based airlines likely earned a record $2.4 billion in the third quarter, up from a $260 million loss last year. Industry laggard AMR ( AMR ) even managed to post its first quarterly profit in two years thanks to surging yields and slower-to-rise costs.
Industry watchers expect airline carriers to only slowly add more planes back into the service, below the rate that would lead to price wars. American Express just issued a report predicting that tight supply will enable airfares to rise another +2% to +6% in the United States next year, and +5% to +10% in the rest of the world. That's a real positive forDelta , AMR and United Continental ( UAL ) , as these carriers are most heavily exposed to international travel. The weak dollar may impede some Americans from traveling abroad, but could trigger a fresh surge of foreign tourism to the U.S.
Fewer discounts mean higher prices
Auto makers are also benefiting from restrained supply to help firm prices. Advertised prices for new cars and trucks are rising only modestly, but auto makers are finally able to stop the rebate game, which often took $1,000 to $2,000 off of the listed price. They can afford to do that since many auto plants were shuttered during the downturn, and few will be re-opened. Domestic auto plants are now producing two million fewer cars than a few years ago, and similar cutbacks have been made in Europe.
Even as industry sales still remain in a funk, pricing power is already in evidence. Goldman Sachs expects U.S. auto and truck sales to be around 11.5 million this year, well below the 17 million unit levels seen back in 2006 and 2007. Yet they expect that figure to rebound to 13 million next year, 14 million in 2012 and 15 million in 2013. As long as the auto makers expand output at levels in line or below industry sales, they should see continued improvements in pricing power.
As an example, Ford Motor ( F ) has produced about -10% fewer vehicles in the third quarter than the second quarter. That means fewer cars will pile up on dealers' lots, and Ford will not need to resort to profit-sapping rebates to move the metal. We're typically bombarded with year-end closeout specials from car dealers in September and October, but that's not happening as much this time around, as inventories remain quite lean.
Reversing the freight pricing trend
When economic activity slowed, major publicly-traded trucking firms such as Arkansas Best, Con-Way, J.B. Hunt, Knight Transportation, and Heartland Express had to take a number of trucks out of service. Nowadays, demand for freight carriers is increasing, and thanks to better control of supply, these firms are finally able to push through some badly-needed price increases. As Dahlman Rose's Jason Seidl recently wrote, "the industry, whose recovery has lagged that of other modes of transportation, is experiencing a gradual return of pricing power, resulting from dwindling capacity and improved demand."
As this is a business with high fixed costs, moderate revenue growth can lead to much faster profit growth. For example, J.B. Hunt (Nasdaq: JBHT) is expected to boost sales +12% next year (half from volume increases, half from price increases), though per share profits are expected to rise +28%. Arkansas Best (Nasdaq: ABFS) is expected to swing from a $1.31 a share loss in 2010 to a $0.67 per share profit next year.
Alcoa's upturn
Sometimes, an industry giant can set the tone for a whole industry. Alcoa ( AA ) , one of the world's largest aluminum producers, has severely reduced output, and management insists that the company will be slow to rebuild output when the industry rebounds. It helps that Chinese aluminum producers are cutting output. I discussed Alcoa's newfound discipline in this recent article .
Alcoa's management discussed the improving industry dynamics in great detail on its recent conference call. Other industry players such as Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) stand to benefit from Alcoa's leadership on the supply front. Then again, that's bad news for companies like Noranda Aluminum ( NOR ) and Kaiser Aluminum (Nasdaq: KASU) , which count on cheap prices to boost their profit margins on manufactured aluminum goods.
Action to Take --> Many of these supply-induced pricing gains are impressive enough in a weakeconomy . They'll look even more impressive when theeconomy rebounds, as long as supply growth lags demand growth. These sectors have already posted decent gains, but investors are likely under-estimating their impressiveearnings power when theeconomy is back in growth mode.
Of the companies mentioned here, Ford Motor, Aloca, AMR (because it's much cheaper than the other airline stocks) and Arkansas Best are my favorite names to consider.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) , one of the world's largest aluminum producers, has severely reduced output, and management insists that the company will be slow to rebuild output when the industry rebounds. And as soon as theeconomy rebounded and demand for air travel started to build, many assumed that the airlines would simply bring all those mothballed planes back on line. American Express just issued a report predicting that tight supply will enable airfares to rise another +2% to +6% in the United States next year, and +5% to +10% in the rest of the world.
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Alcoa ( AA ) , one of the world's largest aluminum producers, has severely reduced output, and management insists that the company will be slow to rebuild output when the industry rebounds. Fewer discounts mean higher prices Auto makers are also benefiting from restrained supply to help firm prices. For example, J.B. Hunt (Nasdaq: JBHT) is expected to boost sales +12% next year (half from volume increases, half from price increases), though per share profits are expected to rise +28%.
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Alcoa ( AA ) , one of the world's largest aluminum producers, has severely reduced output, and management insists that the company will be slow to rebuild output when the industry rebounds. Industry watchers expect airline carriers to only slowly add more planes back into the service, below the rate that would lead to price wars. Fewer discounts mean higher prices Auto makers are also benefiting from restrained supply to help firm prices.
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Alcoa ( AA ) , one of the world's largest aluminum producers, has severely reduced output, and management insists that the company will be slow to rebuild output when the industry rebounds. Goldman Sachs expects U.S. auto and truck sales to be around 11.5 million this year, well below the 17 million unit levels seen back in 2006 and 2007. As long as the auto makers expand output at levels in line or below industry sales, they should see continued improvements in pricing power.
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1826.0
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2010-10-15 00:00:00 UTC
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These Five Economic Barometer Stocks Are Pointing to a Higher Market
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/these-five-economic-barometer-stocks-are-pointing-higher-market-2010-10-15
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nan
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nan
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Investment U submits:
by Matthew Weinshenck
Forget the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. While they foretold the end of days, there are five new riders in town, with a new prophecy:
There will be no double-dip recession. The market will rally. The economy will recover.
Five Windows into the Economic World
Quarterly earnings season started a bit over a week ago - on October 7. During the first week of reports, five very important companies released their numbers: Alcoa, Inc (NYSE: [[AA]]), Pepsico, Inc (NYSE: [[PEP]]), CSX, Inc. (NYSE: [[CSX]]), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: [[INTC]]), and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: [[JPM]]).
I didn't choose these five companies arbitrarily. They're not only among the first to step up to the earnings plate and set the tone for the season, more importantly, each company tells us something different about the economy…
Alcoa: Its aluminum business provides clues on the amount of industrial spending.
Pepsico: As the company behind many everyday food and drink items, the company reflects consumer-spending levels.
CSX: The railway freight shipper is a good barometer of general economic activity.
Intel: The tech giant reflects spending on technology.
JP Morgan Chase: As a major financial firm, it highlights the health of the financial sector.
Together, these companies have a wide geographic reach, a good mix of international sales and enough different products to provide a decent measure of economic health. They also have an interesting short-term impact on the stock market.
So specifically, what do these companies predict?
Why You Should Pay Attention to These Five Earnings Reports
First, all five companies just met or exceeded expected earnings - a significant occurrence in itself. That's because when I reviewed the past 20 quarterly earnings for each company, here's what I found:
When four or more of these companies meet or exceed their earnings expectations, the market rises by 2.2% over the next 30 days. But when only three or less companies post good numbers, the market turns negative.
Of course, the earnings reports of these five firms alone can't drive the entire market over the longer-term. A sample of this size isn't enough to make a categoric judgment.
However, these "horsemen" are influential firms and are important economic barometers. Together, they produce valuable information. And information is what moves the market.
As Frank Holmes of US Global Investors says: "Good partial information early is value-addedinvestment research while complete information after the fact is low-value reporting that's already priced into the market."
And that's essentially what happens all the time when you invest. It's impossible to have all the information and facts you need, so you make decisions based on what you do have - with partial information in uncertain conditions.
And it works, too…
You Don't NeedAll the Information… You Just Need theRight Information
We've used partial information before. In fact, I used one particular indicator to predict the end of the recession in May 2009.
Result? In September 2010, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared the official end to be June 2009. Pretty darn close.
And just a few months ago, I used partial information to predict five reasons why the S&P 500 will hit 1,350 . The index hasn't got there yet, but it's on the move, having risen 10% since then.
The point is, the earnings reports from Alcoa, Pepsico, CSX, Intel and JP Morgan provide information that we can use to draw a pretty decent picture of the economy.
For example, we might not know exactly what decisions Chinese builders are making, but Alcoa's numbers can give us some clues.
So aside from the headline earnings numbers, here's what these five companies are telling us is happening now - and what could happen next…
Goodbye, Macro… Hello, Micro
Alcoa: Aluminum demand is rising - especially in the aerospace and construction industries. And demand is rising fast enough to push prices up by 15%. Much of the growth is coming from China, where inflationary concerns and available storage capacity may have builders stockpiling supplies now for the future.
Pepsico: With a 5% increase in sales, Pepsico beat its forecast. However, earnings only matched the estimated figure, due to the company hiking its costs in order to expand capacity and infrastructure in China, as well as setting aside more money for research and development. When businesses make capital investments, it bodes well for the economy.
CSX: The firm reported a 10% jump in shipping volume and healthy business across all its divisions. Earnings were up by an impressive 48% over last year. In addition, CSX has hired 2,000 workers this year and expects to hire 3,000 next year. Like Pepsico, it's also raised its planned capital investment for next year - another good sign for the economy.
Intel: The tech titan beat sales estimates, thanks to increased demand for computers in less developed countries. This could signal a broader scale technological expansion for up-and-coming markets , which would add a layer to Intel's growth - and the U.S. economy's, too. Interestingly, much of the boost came in the last four weeks of the quarter, which suggests the economic revival is only just now accelerating.
JP Morgan Chase: The good news: JP Morgan beat its earnings forecasts and saw lower write-offs on consumer credit card debt. However, investment banking and new mortgage income were both down, so we perhaps shouldn't get too carried away with the company's quarterly performance.
What we can say, however, is that while it's tricky to absorb the mass of information on the overall economy and its prospects, breaking it down into smaller bites is much more revealing.
And what these five important companies tell us is that we're shipping 10% more goods around the country… sales are climbing, both in the United States and abroad… capital expenditure is rising in key areas like consumer goods and railroads… and credit card debt write-offs are declining.
Information like this is much more useful than an all-encompassing quarterly GDP number that reports what the economy did months ago (not to mention a number that's far from accurate and is casually revised up and down).
These are real-time details on what's happening around the world - and the details look good. It's what makes these companies the "five horsemen." And it's why the economy and stock market could be destined for a brighter spell.
Disclosure : Investment U expressly forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees and agents of Investment U (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an initial trade recommendation is published on online - or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent - before acting on that recommendation.
Disclaimer : The Oxford Club LLC/Investment U and Stansberry & Associates Investment Research are separate companies, and entirely distinct. Their only common thread is a shared parent company, Agora Inc. Agora Inc. was named in the suit by the SEC and was exonerated by the court, and thus dropped from the case. Stansberry & Associates was found civilly liable for a matter that dealt with one writer's report on a company. The action was not a criminal matter.
See also Insiders Are Selling: What Does It Mean? on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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During the first week of reports, five very important companies released their numbers: Alcoa, Inc (NYSE: [[AA]]), Pepsico, Inc (NYSE: [[PEP]]), CSX, Inc. (NYSE: [[CSX]]), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: [[INTC]]), and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: [[JPM]]). They're not only among the first to step up to the earnings plate and set the tone for the season, more importantly, each company tells us something different about the economy… Alcoa: Its aluminum business provides clues on the amount of industrial spending. The point is, the earnings reports from Alcoa, Pepsico, CSX, Intel and JP Morgan provide information that we can use to draw a pretty decent picture of the economy.
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During the first week of reports, five very important companies released their numbers: Alcoa, Inc (NYSE: [[AA]]), Pepsico, Inc (NYSE: [[PEP]]), CSX, Inc. (NYSE: [[CSX]]), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: [[INTC]]), and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: [[JPM]]). The point is, the earnings reports from Alcoa, Pepsico, CSX, Intel and JP Morgan provide information that we can use to draw a pretty decent picture of the economy. JP Morgan Chase: The good news: JP Morgan beat its earnings forecasts and saw lower write-offs on consumer credit card debt.
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During the first week of reports, five very important companies released their numbers: Alcoa, Inc (NYSE: [[AA]]), Pepsico, Inc (NYSE: [[PEP]]), CSX, Inc. (NYSE: [[CSX]]), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: [[INTC]]), and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: [[JPM]]). That's because when I reviewed the past 20 quarterly earnings for each company, here's what I found: When four or more of these companies meet or exceed their earnings expectations, the market rises by 2.2% over the next 30 days. The point is, the earnings reports from Alcoa, Pepsico, CSX, Intel and JP Morgan provide information that we can use to draw a pretty decent picture of the economy.
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During the first week of reports, five very important companies released their numbers: Alcoa, Inc (NYSE: [[AA]]), Pepsico, Inc (NYSE: [[PEP]]), CSX, Inc. (NYSE: [[CSX]]), Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: [[INTC]]), and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: [[JPM]]). And information is what moves the market. The point is, the earnings reports from Alcoa, Pepsico, CSX, Intel and JP Morgan provide information that we can use to draw a pretty decent picture of the economy.
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1827.0
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2010-10-15 00:00:00 UTC
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Why I'm Concerned About a Near Term Pullback in Stock Prices
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/why-im-concerned-about-near-term-pullback-stock-prices-2010-10-15
|
nan
|
nan
|
Soos Global Capital submits:
John Lipsky, the current First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, taught me something many years ago when we were colleagues at Salomon Brothers in a conversation then about various countries in Europe that were part of the "Euro Convergence" process. Regarding the extremely high marginal tax rates at that time in some of the socialist economies, for example in Sweden where I believe it was in the 80% range, I recall discussing the seeming disincentive for people to work when only 20 cents on the 'dollar' would stay in their pocket while the rest would go to the government. I suggested that such a situation would likely lead to high levels of unemployment….to which I recall John adding that not only could it lead to higher levels of unemployment currently, but that the longer people stay un employed the more unemploy able they become due to lost job skills, lack of training for new types of work and the like - a potentially economically crippling process known as "hysteresis".
That conversation parachuted back into my mind in recent days, partly due to the recent awful Non-Farm Payroll data, and partly in reaction to the ongoing stratospheric levels of Jobless Claims and related unemployment numbers. But beyond that, it's also partly attributable to some considerations I've had about the overall market activity which has been largely euphoric of late based on hopes for Fed QE2, lower interest rates, more economic growth, weaker USD and higher commodity prices.
Specifically, while I have been, and remain, optimistic on equities for medium and longer horizon portfolios, largely driven by my view of global economic growth in emerged and emerging countries around the world especially in the context of infrastructure build up, I have become much more cautious in putting additional cash to work, and in fact am concerned near term about a meaningful pullback in stock prices.
Why?
For one , increasedglobal marketrisk and uncertainty. As I wrote last week in " Positioning for the Week Ahead: Navigating the Risks and Opportunities in Choppy Market Waters ", the lack of a globally integrated response to the quickly developing global 'currency war' presents the markets with, if nothing else, a significant increase in risk…..risk of unilateral action by countries in defense of their economies a la:
Japan's intervention several weeks ago to devalue the Yen and last week's announcement of lower rates and of a 'QE' type fund, and
Korea's inaction this week by not hiking rates despite inflationary signs thereby choosing to accept a bit of inflation rather than fight it with higher rates which would likely strengthen their currency and hurt exports, and
the US's Fed whose minutes from the September meeting that we got a glimpse of this week clearly showed the Fed team standing on the dock ready to christen the QE2 as it's about to set sail.
Second , my perception that markets have allowed corporate earnings to provide a disguising shadow on the underlying economic weakness that prevails in the US. With little in the way of new economic data this week, most market participants have been rightfully focused on the earnings parade….and some parade it's been. From Alcoa ( AA ), to Intel ( INTC ), to [[CSX]], the news both in the rearview mirror and ahead through the windshield has been quite good. And that's perhaps one of the strongest supportive factoids for my still cautiously, patient optimism. But when one considers the depth and breadth of the US economic slump, and when one contemplates the risks of "hysteresis" despite the remarkable flexibility of the US labor force, it doesn't take long to aggressively question the soundness of the logic that has driven current market valuations, the arguably flawed causal relationship of QE>>lower interest rates>>more domestic economic growth>> higher equity prices. Hysteresis could put a serious kibosh on the economic growth link in that chain.
Third , next week's data calendar will probably not provide much news on the economic front to alter the perception of just how deep of a hole the US economy is in. We do get Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, which together is unlikely to show much improvement especially when you have a look at where we are now vs where we're coming from:
(Source: ChartFacts.com)
click to enlarge
We'll also get Housing Starts and Permits…and there too, look at the reality of what "improvement" has to mean in order to make a dent in what is an awful situation.
Compounding that, of course, has been this week's leap-frogging of the foreclosure fiasco to the front pages. Banks across the land have been freezing foreclosure proceedings, cries are being heard from DC and beyond for full blown investigations of banks that could result in large penalties, and one likely result could be a protracted major headwind for any improvement in the ailing housing industry.
What now?
In the context of open kimono, I've been adding equity exposure for the past several months with a "buy on dip" tactical approach, focusing on companies involved in global businesses with strong balance sheets, good dividend payouts, aggressive expansions into Emerging Markets countries, and in industries that are less likely to fall subject to intense new regulatory regimes. The higher markets have gone, though, the slower I've been to invest on any dips. And at these levels, I'm considering not just a pause in buying, but possibly some profit-taking with the goal of re-entering at lower levels.
Bear in mind, this article is in no way meant to be considered personalizedinvestment advice but rather a thought-provoking note on issues that investors ought to consider in determining their own investment decisions that are uniquely appropriate for their financial profiles and risk tolerances. It's meant to broaden the dialogue in terms of what should drive investment decisions beyond a simple reflex reaction to QE, whether it will or won't happen, and in terms of including the broader landscape of US economic travails in addition to the global currency and policy tensions.
In sum, despite my longer term optimism, current events have raised my "concern-ometer". To put it colloquially, perhaps next to "Hysteresis" in the dictionary, a simplified, figurative definition could read: the needle that popped the bubble.
Look for updates as things evolve.
Disclaimer: Soos Global Capital Advisors, LLC ("Soos Global") is a New York state registered investment adviser located in Harrison, New York. Soos Global may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The publication of Soos Global's opinions on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Soos Global's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalizedinvestment advicefor compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by Soos Global with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Soos Global, please contact the state securities regulators for those states in which Soos Global maintains a registration filing. A copy of Soos Global's current written disclosure statement discussing Soos Global's business operations, services, and fees is available from Soos Global upon written request. Soos Global does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Soos Global's opinions or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client's investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Soos Global), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s).
Disclosure: LONG: INTC, AA and various ETFs and stocks in S&P, Europe, Asia and Latin America.
See also 5 High Yield Dividend Stocks Seeing Insider Buying on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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From Alcoa ( AA ), to Intel ( INTC ), to [[CSX]], the news both in the rearview mirror and ahead through the windshield has been quite good. Disclosure: LONG: INTC, AA and various ETFs and stocks in S&P, Europe, Asia and Latin America. Soos Global Capital submits: John Lipsky, the current First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, taught me something many years ago when we were colleagues at Salomon Brothers in a conversation then about various countries in Europe that were part of the "Euro Convergence" process.
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From Alcoa ( AA ), to Intel ( INTC ), to [[CSX]], the news both in the rearview mirror and ahead through the windshield has been quite good. Disclosure: LONG: INTC, AA and various ETFs and stocks in S&P, Europe, Asia and Latin America. A copy of Soos Global's current written disclosure statement discussing Soos Global's business operations, services, and fees is available from Soos Global upon written request.
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From Alcoa ( AA ), to Intel ( INTC ), to [[CSX]], the news both in the rearview mirror and ahead through the windshield has been quite good. Disclosure: LONG: INTC, AA and various ETFs and stocks in S&P, Europe, Asia and Latin America. As I wrote last week in " Positioning for the Week Ahead: Navigating the Risks and Opportunities in Choppy Market Waters ", the lack of a globally integrated response to the quickly developing global 'currency war' presents the markets with, if nothing else, a significant increase in risk…..risk of unilateral action by countries in defense of their economies a la: Japan's intervention several weeks ago to devalue the Yen and last week's announcement of lower rates and of a 'QE' type fund, and Korea's inaction this week by not hiking rates despite inflationary signs thereby choosing to accept a bit of inflation rather than fight it with higher rates which would likely strengthen their currency and hurt exports, and the US's Fed whose minutes from the September meeting that we got a glimpse of this week clearly showed the Fed team standing on the dock ready to christen the QE2 as it's about to set sail.
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From Alcoa ( AA ), to Intel ( INTC ), to [[CSX]], the news both in the rearview mirror and ahead through the windshield has been quite good. Disclosure: LONG: INTC, AA and various ETFs and stocks in S&P, Europe, Asia and Latin America. I suggested that such a situation would likely lead to high levels of unemployment….to which I recall John adding that not only could it lead to higher levels of unemployment currently, but that the longer people stay un employed the more unemploy able they become due to lost job skills, lack of training for new types of work and the like - a potentially economically crippling process known as "hysteresis".
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1828.0
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2010-10-13 00:00:00 UTC
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3 Stocks to Buy Now For Earnings
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-buy-now-earnings-2010-10-13
|
nan
|
nan
|
Earnings season has officially begun. Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) reported better-than-expected earnings on Friday of last week, which added 6% to the stock and helped push the Dow over 11,000. This is the perfect example of the power of earnings and this is precisely why we focus on quarterly financial reports.
With the season underway, it's time we look at earnings and sift through the details of our companies' financial reports due to come out in the next several weeks. Here are three stocks to watch that could post strong numbers.
Volterra Semiconductor (NASDAQ: VLTR ) announces earnings Oct. 25. This is a semiconductor company and with all the economic jitters we have been getting this summer, the shares have been volatile despite the phenomenal growth in operational performance.
Second-quarter profit rose eightfold to $9 million, or 34 cents per share, as revenue grew 77%. The operating margin increased from 11% to 26%. If the company delivers good earnings again in late October, I think the fear that built into the stock will turn into greed and shares will get moving in a hurry.
Eaton (NYSE: ETN ) will report earnings on Oct. 18. This is a classic American industrial company. Eaton makes electrical components as well as hydraulics components for truck and automotive drivetrain and powertrain systems. Estimates call for a 13% rise in sales but I think ETN has a real shot of coming in higher than expected. Also, analysts have upped earnings estimates 15% in the last 30 days. This bodes well for an earnings surprise.
I don't want to call it a long shot, but my last pick this week has a few factors that could push shares sky high if all goes well.
Skechers USA (NYSE: SKX ) is a retailer that has a very popular workout shoe on the market right now. There are a lot of investors out there that are betting this is a fad shoe and that sales will quickly dry up and leave the company vulnerable. That's why many are shorting the stock, hoping for a fall. While Skechers' Shape-up shoe may turn out to be a fad, it's not going to happen in the near term and smart investors will get in ahead of earnings and benefit from the inevitable short squeeze.
The short ratio as percent of the float is approximately 30% as I write. This is a significant percentage. In August there were 8.54 million shares shorted, while as of Sept. 15 that number has risen to 9.02 million. Sketchers will announce earnings on Oct. 18 and because of robust sales, I think they will be good. If I'm right, all of the shares that are sold short will have to be covered. That means short sellers will be forced to buy back shares and create massive buying pressure that will lift the stock. This is a big opportunity for Skechers to prove Wall Street wrong and for investors to profit from a well-run company.
As of this writing, Louis Navellier was recommending these stocks in his Quantum Growth and Emerging Growth newsletter.
Top 5 Stocks for the 4th-Quarter Surge. Louis Navellier details five stocks set to deliver record earnings and jump 30%-50% in the next 90 days as the big money piles in. Get their names online here, including Louis' buy-below and target prices.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) reported better-than-expected earnings on Friday of last week, which added 6% to the stock and helped push the Dow over 11,000. If the company delivers good earnings again in late October, I think the fear that built into the stock will turn into greed and shares will get moving in a hurry. While Skechers' Shape-up shoe may turn out to be a fad, it's not going to happen in the near term and smart investors will get in ahead of earnings and benefit from the inevitable short squeeze.
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) reported better-than-expected earnings on Friday of last week, which added 6% to the stock and helped push the Dow over 11,000. If the company delivers good earnings again in late October, I think the fear that built into the stock will turn into greed and shares will get moving in a hurry. Eaton (NYSE: ETN ) will report earnings on Oct. 18.
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) reported better-than-expected earnings on Friday of last week, which added 6% to the stock and helped push the Dow over 11,000. If the company delivers good earnings again in late October, I think the fear that built into the stock will turn into greed and shares will get moving in a hurry. Louis Navellier details five stocks set to deliver record earnings and jump 30%-50% in the next 90 days as the big money piles in.
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) reported better-than-expected earnings on Friday of last week, which added 6% to the stock and helped push the Dow over 11,000. Eaton (NYSE: ETN ) will report earnings on Oct. 18. While Skechers' Shape-up shoe may turn out to be a fad, it's not going to happen in the near term and smart investors will get in ahead of earnings and benefit from the inevitable short squeeze.
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1829.0
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2010-10-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Don’t Fight the Tape
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dont-fight-tape-2010-10-11
|
nan
|
nan
|
Economists and analysts continue to talk about the economy making the slowest recovery since World War II, yet stocks continue to rise. On Friday, gains were made in the face of a jobs report that showed a loss of 94,000 jobs in September versus expectations of no change.
The market's reaction makes sense in a perverse way since every negative economic report is viewed as more pressure on the Fed to implement "QE2," the second round of quantitative easing. And talk now is not only about the U.S. Federal Reserve, but also of the possibility of implementation of a similar plan by the Bank of England and Japan.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) started the Q3 earnings season with a bang, announcing that revenues climbed by a greater-than-expected 14.6%, and the stock jumped 5.7%. Earnings per share were 9 cents versus a consensus estimate of 5 cents, and management increased upside guidance.
Blue chips continued to perform well: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) rose 2.1%, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS ) gained 1.8%, and The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG ) gained 1.7%.
But small-cap stocks continue to outperform all others. On Friday, the Russell 2000 Index rose 1.4% to its highest close since May 17. And the S&P SmallCap 600 Index rose 1.3%, led by the energy and material sectors.
Treasurys were strong on the disappointing jobs report. The yields on the two- and five-year notes fell to record lows, and the 10-year note's yield fell to 2.332%, which is the lowest yield since January 2009.
The U.S. dollar fell to a 15-year low versus the yen, and the euro closed at $1.3929, up from $1.3912 on Thursday.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 58 points to 11,006, the S&P 500 gained 7 points at 1,165, and the Nasdaq rose 18 points at 2,402. The NYSE traded 945 million shares with advancers over decliners by almost 3-to-1. The Nasdaq traded 522 million shares, and advancers there were ahead by 2.5-to-1. For the week, the Dow gained 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%.
Crude Oil for delivery in November rose 99 cents to $82.66 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) closed at $58.36, up 72 cents. December Gold rose $10.30 to settle at $1,335.40 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) rose 3.52 points to 204.81.
What the Markets Are Saying
On Friday, the news couldn't have been worse as jobs numbers again missed estimates, and yet the market rallied. In reading comments from our readers, I was reminded of the market axiom, "Don't fight the tape," which had been a favorite expression of the person who hired me into the investment world as a trainee in 1966. What it means is that despite your personal feelings about the value of stocks, you should follow the trend, and even if the market is going against all other logical information it is the trend that is most important.
I've occasionally reminded our readers of a variation on that theme, saying that when bad news is treated well, we are facing a very strong market. And, of course, the opposite is true, i.e., when good news is treated badly you had better exit your stock positions. Other similar expressions are "Don't step in front of a moving train" and "Stocks that make new highs will continue to make new highs."
These expressions, like support and resistance lines, trendlines, moving averages and virtually every tool in the technician's toolbox are subject to exhaustion. Obviously stocks don't move up against bad news forever, nor do bull and bear markets last forever. That is why the wise trader will not only review his positions frequently to determine if they are keeping pace with the market, but will enter trailing stop-loss orders to protect against sudden reversals.
Nevertheless, losses as well as gains are a part of investing. I know that even though I may exhaustively research the technical trading aspects of every trade and recommendation, some will fail. That's part of the business and it is no one's fault - there are simply just too many moving parts to keep track of everything, and unexpected news often smacks you before you are out of the gate. Blaming yourself or others achieves little. When losses occur, the wise investor casts no blame, seeks to know the reason for the loss, and if necessary, adjusts the strategy, puts it in the past, and moves on.
For a dividend stock you should consider buying, see the Trade of the Day .
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported after the close: Global Payment.
There are no significant economic reports due today.
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
Your Guide to Profiting From Asia's Explosive Growth - For access to the best-kept secrets about investing in China and the rest of Asia, plus the hottest stocks to buy and sell, sign up now for Robert Hsu's FREE Investing Newsletter, Asia Insider. It's sent right to your e-mail inbox every week - absolutely FREE!
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) started the Q3 earnings season with a bang, announcing that revenues climbed by a greater-than-expected 14.6%, and the stock jumped 5.7%. The market's reaction makes sense in a perverse way since every negative economic report is viewed as more pressure on the Fed to implement "QE2," the second round of quantitative easing. In reading comments from our readers, I was reminded of the market axiom, "Don't fight the tape," which had been a favorite expression of the person who hired me into the investment world as a trainee in 1966.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) started the Q3 earnings season with a bang, announcing that revenues climbed by a greater-than-expected 14.6%, and the stock jumped 5.7%. The NYSE traded 945 million shares with advancers over decliners by almost 3-to-1. The Nasdaq traded 522 million shares, and advancers there were ahead by 2.5-to-1.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) started the Q3 earnings season with a bang, announcing that revenues climbed by a greater-than-expected 14.6%, and the stock jumped 5.7%. Blue chips continued to perform well: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) rose 2.1%, The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS ) gained 1.8%, and The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG ) gained 1.7%. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 58 points to 11,006, the S&P 500 gained 7 points at 1,165, and the Nasdaq rose 18 points at 2,402.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) started the Q3 earnings season with a bang, announcing that revenues climbed by a greater-than-expected 14.6%, and the stock jumped 5.7%. For the week, the Dow gained 1.6%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and the Nasdaq gained 1.3%. What the Markets Are Saying On Friday, the news couldn't have been worse as jobs numbers again missed estimates, and yet the market rallied.
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1830.0
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2010-10-10 00:00:00 UTC
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Portfolio Positioning for the Coming Week: Risks and Opportunities
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/portfolio-positioning-coming-week-risks-and-opportunities-2010-10-10
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nan
|
nan
|
Soos Global Capital submits:
This article is a slightly different version of my weekly "Setting Up for the Opening Bell" series. It combines a review of this week's activity with a preview of next week's, and is supplemented with a thought-provoking sharing of actual positions along with key ideas that are driving our investment decisions.
All week long I've been trumpeting the horn of "political will", arguing that the markets face a heightened level of risk overall largely due to the question surrounding whether or not politicians (and in this, I broadly include all financial officials with policy implication jobs) would do as they say…or not. In colloquial terms: would they 'walk the talk' or not?!
The key to knowing what currency exposure to tolerate in one's portfolio, for example, is now, more than ever, driven by how you assess the likelihood of countries such as Japan, US, China and the EU getting together to multi-laterally deal with what is quickly becoming an all-out currency war of "devaluation-to-deter-deflation".
It was challenging to have these trumpeted sounds resonate while the world anticipated the NFP data release, being that consensus, rightly, holds that the problem in the US is about three things: jobs, jobs and jobs!
And the skittishness of markets was probably most evident on Tuesday when the market soared almost 200 points largely due to a slight uptick in Non-Manufacturing ISM data, an outsized move for a number that is not your usual market moving factoid! That market reaction led me to publish a giant "caveat emptor" within which I had the following graph ( click to enlarge ) that points out just how modest this up-move in Non-Mftg ISM was and therefore just how seemingly absurd was the market's response to it!
(Source: ChartFacts.com)
Friday's NFP data can be summed up in one word: BAD! Or maybe two words: REALLY BAD!
One could try to find a silver lining, but you'd have to try very hard. The mere 67k increase in private sector jobs was below expectations and barely puts a dent in the massive private sector unemployment situation. The collapse of government jobs, down 159k, could only partly be explained by the elimination of Census workers, but more troubling was the 76k component that reflected state and local government job losses.
click to enlarge
The markets had a funny (or not so funny) reaction to the data…a quick up-trade on futures both here and in European markets, probably on the hope that the weak employment data would spur the Fed to launch QE2 that much sooner. But that mild euphoric reaction didn't last long and markets reversed course heading south into the US open. Then, with the positive news from the ECRI Weekly Leading Index coming out, the markets headed back up with the Dow piercing the 11,000 mark where it flirted most of the day (closing a tad above 11,006).
One has to wonder: Are market participants so giddy with the prospect of more quantitative easing by the Fed and by other central banks that they're willing to take stocks higher in an uninterrupted fashion?
Maybe.
But if history teaches us anything, it's that wars of any sort are cause for concern…..and we are in the middle of a global currency "devalue-to-deter-deflation" conflagration!
Ponderables:
Have market participants read the plethora of pieces on the debate as to whether QE will work or not?
Or whether the more effective stimulus would be job-creating fiscal spending?
Have they thought about Friday's WSJ article that highlighted some notions within the Fed (and elsewhere) that suggest that the best way for the Fed to fight deflation is to over- inflate the economy for some time….drive inflation higher , thereby lowering real interest rates, and thereby discouraging saving and promoting spending?
How about the pressure that Congress and Geithner are putting on China…will China show up for our USTsy auctions?
These are just some of the all-important questions that investors need to be asking…..and answering!
In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. That's good news. And Friday's ECRI Leading Index is good news. But both should be taken in the context of this week's disappointing ADP private sector job report (down 39k) and Friday's troubling NFP (down 95k).
Furthermore, this weekend's G20/IMF meetings could cause considerable market movements depending on whether "political will" manifests itself in the form of a multi-lateral program for dealing with competitive devaluations or in the form of a free-for-all where open warfare is the effective modus operandi for now. This would not be a weekend to defuse from the market madness of the past week, but rather to stay glued to word coming out of DC.
As for the coming week (Week of Oct 11), the calendar of economic data is chock full of inflation and retail sales indicators, as well as sentiment indicators, most of it back loaded at the end of the week. More in focus is likely to be the steady stream of earnings that will be coming out through the week.
On the US economic front , Briefing.com offers the following:
Week of October 11 - October 15
And on the earnings front , it's worth a visit to Briefing.com's earnings calendar to see the lineup and expectations.
Portfolio Thoughts
(BEAR IN MIND: this is NOT in any way meant to beinvestment advice It is merely some food for thought. Each investor is responsible for his/her own investment decisions and should not take what is in this article as advice as to what is appropriate for their unique situation. The comments in this section reflect positions in accounts that we manage for our clients. Our client accounts are tailor made for each investor based his/her unique financial profile and risk tolerance. Please read the disclaimer at the end of this article and remember that opinions expressed here can change without notice):
Beware of the market overall . The market's love-fest this week with otherwise uninspiring data is troubling. Too much seems to be made of the likely effectiveness of QE2 should it happen. And rallying the US stock market as a result of higher commodity prices that are driven by a weaker USD, seems to us to have the 'causal effect' going the wrong way. I'd feel much better if strong US growth led to strong equities which in turn drove commodities higher…but that doesn't seem to be the situation. That said, frequent readers will know that I've been adding to my equity exposure on market dips, focusing my buying on global companies who have meaningful amounts of their business in Emerging Markets and in developed countries around the world, such as Caterpillar ( CAT ) and Deere & Co. (DE.) I also own Australia, Asia ex-Japan, Brazil, Germany, China and the BRICs ETFs. In addition I have some direct exposure such as Telefonica ( TEF ), Vodafone ( VOD ), Teva ( TEVA ) and Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ). My cash position, which is still rather large, is being patiently placed on the sidelines with the hope of taking advantage of any market pullbacks that we expect to face, especially given how choppy rather than trendy the markets have been.
Beware of banks . The "mortgage foreclosure fiasco" could snowball into something awful for banks. Pelosi's call for the Justice Department's investigation into big names such as Bank of America ( BAC ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) could keep them and others under pressure. I am long (very) Citigroup ( C ) despite these concerns, though, as I anticipate that government ownership is coming to an end, and many signs point to the 'bad bank' component delivering on their mission of ridding C of its toxic assets.
On my "wish I owned" and "wish I owned more of" lists, I have names such as FedEx ( FDX ), Cummins ( CMI ), 3M ( MMM ) and Posco ( PKX ). I'm watching each closely and determining appropriate entry levels. The market waters have gotten choppy...very choppy. Navigating them successfully is going to require a broader, more global view.
Disclosure: Long: C, MMM, CAT, DE, EWZ, EWG, TEF, VOD, TEVA, PBR, EWA, FXI, BRXX, GMF. Could trade any of these and others mentioned in the article soon
Disclaimer : Soos Global Capital Advisors, LLC ("Soos Global") is a New York state registered investment adviser located in Harrison, New York. Soos Global may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The publication of Soos Global's opinions on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Soos Global's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalizedinvestment advicefor compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by Soos Global with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Soos Global, please contact the state securities regulators for those states in which Soos Global maintains a registration filing. A copy of Soos Global's current written disclosure statement discussing Soos Global's business operations, services, and fees is available from Soos Global upon written request. Soos Global does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Soos Global's opinions or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client's investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Soos Global), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s).
See also China's Counter-Deflation Bet Pays Off Big on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. All week long I've been trumpeting the horn of "political will", arguing that the markets face a heightened level of risk overall largely due to the question surrounding whether or not politicians (and in this, I broadly include all financial officials with policy implication jobs) would do as they say…or not. Then, with the positive news from the ECRI Weekly Leading Index coming out, the markets headed back up with the Dow piercing the 11,000 mark where it flirted most of the day (closing a tad above 11,006).
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. Then, with the positive news from the ECRI Weekly Leading Index coming out, the markets headed back up with the Dow piercing the 11,000 mark where it flirted most of the day (closing a tad above 11,006). Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s).
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. The publication of Soos Global's opinions on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Soos Global's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalizedinvestment advicefor compensation, over the Internet. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s).
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. As for the coming week (Week of Oct 11), the calendar of economic data is chock full of inflation and retail sales indicators, as well as sentiment indicators, most of it back loaded at the end of the week. Beware of banks .
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1831.0
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2010-10-10 00:00:00 UTC
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Positioning for the Week Ahead: Navigating the Risks and Opportunities in Choppy Market Waters
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/positioning-week-ahead-navigating-risks-and-opportunities-choppy-market-waters-2010-10-10
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nan
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nan
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Soos Global Capital submits:
This article is a slightly different version of my weekly "Setting Up for the Opening Bell" series. It combines a review of this week's activity with a preview of next week's, and is supplemented with a thought-provoking sharing of actual positions along with key ideas that are driving our investment decisions.
All week long I've been trumpeting the horn of "political will", arguing that the markets face a heightened level of risk overall largely due to the question surrounding whether or not politicians (and in this, I broadly include all financial officials with policy implication jobs) would do as they say…or not. In colloquial terms: would they 'walk the talk' or not?!
The key to knowing what currency exposure to tolerate in one's portfolio, for example, is now, more than ever, driven by how you assess the likelihood of countries such as Japan, US, China and the EU getting together to multi-laterally deal with what is quickly becoming an all-out currency war of "devaluation-to-deter-deflation".
It was challenging to have these trumpeted sounds resonate while the world anticipated the NFP data release, being that consensus, rightly, holds that the problem in the US is about three things: jobs, jobs and jobs!
And the skittishness of markets was probably most evident on Tuesday when the market soared almost 200 points largely due to a slight uptick in Non-Manufacturing ISM data, an outsized move for a number that is not your usual market moving factoid! That market reaction led me to publish a giant "caveat emptor" within which I had the following graph ( click to enlarge ) that points out just how modest this up-move in Non-Mftg ISM was and therefore just how seemingly absurd was the market's response to it!
(Source: ChartFacts.com)
Friday's NFP data can be summed up in one word: BAD! Or maybe two words: REALLY BAD!
One could try to find a silver lining, but you'd have to try very hard. The mere 67k increase in private sector jobs was below expectations and barely puts a dent in the massive private sector unemployment situation. The collapse of government jobs, down 159k, could only partly be explained by the elimination of Census workers, but more troubling was the 76k component that reflected state and local government job losses.
click to enlarge
The markets had a funny (or not so funny) reaction to the data…a quick up-trade on futures both here and in European markets, probably on the hope that the weak employment data would spur the Fed to launch QE2 that much sooner. But that mild euphoric reaction didn't last long and markets reversed course heading south into the US open. Then, with the positive news from the ECRI Weekly Leading Index coming out, the markets headed back up with the Dow piercing the 11,000 mark where it flirted most of the day (closing a tad above 11,006).
One has to wonder: Are market participants so giddy with the prospect of more quantitative easing by the Fed and by other central banks that they're willing to take stocks higher in an uninterrupted fashion?
Maybe.
But if history teaches us anything, it's that wars of any sort are cause for concern…..and we are in the middle of a global currency "devalue-to-deter-deflation" conflagration!
Ponderables:
Have market participants read the plethora of pieces on the debate as to whether QE will work or not?
Or whether the more effective stimulus would be job-creating fiscal spending?
Have they thought about Friday's WSJ article that highlighted some notions within the Fed (and elsewhere) that suggest that the best way for the Fed to fight deflation is to over- inflate the economy for some time….drive inflation higher , thereby lowering real interest rates, and thereby discouraging saving and promoting spending?
How about the pressure that Congress and Geithner are putting on China…will China show up for our USTsy auctions?
These are just some of the all-important questions that investors need to be asking…..and answering!
In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. That's good news. And Friday's ECRI Leading Index is good news. But both should be taken in the context of this week's disappointing ADP private sector job report (down 39k) and Friday's troubling NFP (down 95k).
Furthermore, this weekend's G20/IMF meetings could cause considerable market movements depending on whether "political will" manifests itself in the form of a multi-lateral program for dealing with competitive devaluations or in the form of a free-for-all where open warfare is the effective modus operandi for now. This would not be a weekend to defuse from the market madness of the past week, but rather to stay glued to word coming out of DC.
As for the coming week (Week of Oct 11), the calendar of economic data is chock full of inflation and retail sales indicators, as well as sentiment indicators, most of it back loaded at the end of the week. More in focus is likely to be the steady stream of earnings that will be coming out through the week.
On the US economic front , Briefing.com offers the following:
Week of October 11 - October 15
And on the earnings front , it's worth a visit to Briefing.com's earnings calendar to see the lineup and expectations.
Portfolio Thoughts
(BEAR IN MIND: this is NOT in any way meant to beinvestment advice It is merely some food for thought. Each investor is responsible for his/her own investment decisions and should not take what is in this article as advice as to what is appropriate for their unique situation. The comments in this section reflect positions in accounts that we manage for our clients. Our client accounts are tailor made for each investor based on his/her unique financial profile and risk tolerance. Please read the disclaimer at the end of this article and remember that opinions expressed here can change without notice):
Beware of the market overall . The market's love-fest this week with otherwise uninspiring data is troubling. Too much seems to be made of the likely effectiveness of QE2 should it happen. And rallying the US stock market as a result of higher commodity prices that are driven by a weaker USD, seems to us to have the 'causal effect' going the wrong way. I'd feel much better if strong US growth led to strong equities which in turn drove commodities higher…but that doesn't seem to be the situation. That said, frequent readers will know that I've been adding to my equity exposure on market dips, focusing my buying on global companies who have meaningful amounts of their business in Emerging Markets and in developed countries around the world, such as Caterpillar ( CAT ) and Deere & Co. ( DE ). I also own Australia, Asia ex-Japan, Brazil, Germany, China and the BRICs ETFs. In addition I have some direct exposure such as Telefonica ( TEF ), Vodafone ( VOD ), Teva ( TEVA ) and Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ). My cash position, which is still rather large, is being patiently placed on the sidelines with the hope of taking advantage of any market pullbacks that we expect to face, especially given how choppy rather than trendy the markets have been.
Beware of banks . The "mortgage foreclosure fiasco" could snowball into something awful for banks. Pelosi's call for the Justice Department's investigation into big names such as Bank of America ( BAC ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) could keep them and others under pressure. I am long (very) Citigroup ( C ) despite these concerns, though, as I anticipate that government ownership is coming to an end, and many signs point to the 'bad bank' component delivering on their mission of ridding C of its toxic assets.
On my "wish I owned" and "wish I owned more of" lists, I have names such as FedEx ( FDX ), Cummins ( CMI ), 3M ( MMM ) and Posco ( PKX ). I'm watching each closely and determining appropriate entry levels. The market waters have gotten choppy...very choppy. Navigating them successfully is going to require a broader, more global view.
Disclosure: Long: C, MMM, CAT, DE, EWZ, EWG, TEF, VOD, TEVA, PBR, EWA, FXI, BRXX, GMF, AA. Could trade any of these and others mentioned in the article soon
Disclaimer : Soos Global Capital Advisors, LLC ("Soos Global") is a New York state registered investment adviser located in Harrison, New York. Soos Global may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. The publication of Soos Global's opinions on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Soos Global's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalizedinvestment advicefor compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by Soos Global with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Soos Global, please contact the state securities regulators for those states in which Soos Global maintains a registration filing. A copy of Soos Global's current written disclosure statement discussing Soos Global's business operations, services, and fees is available from Soos Global upon written request. Soos Global does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Soos Global's opinions or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Soos Global) made reference to directly or indirectly by Soos Global in its opinion, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third party web site, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client's investment portfolio. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results. Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including those undertaken or recommended by Soos Global), will be profitable or equal any historical performance level(s).
See also Capital Flight Is Reality on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. Disclosure: Long: C, MMM, CAT, DE, EWZ, EWG, TEF, VOD, TEVA, PBR, EWA, FXI, BRXX, GMF, AA. All week long I've been trumpeting the horn of "political will", arguing that the markets face a heightened level of risk overall largely due to the question surrounding whether or not politicians (and in this, I broadly include all financial officials with policy implication jobs) would do as they say…or not.
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. Disclosure: Long: C, MMM, CAT, DE, EWZ, EWG, TEF, VOD, TEVA, PBR, EWA, FXI, BRXX, GMF, AA. Then, with the positive news from the ECRI Weekly Leading Index coming out, the markets headed back up with the Dow piercing the 11,000 mark where it flirted most of the day (closing a tad above 11,006).
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. Disclosure: Long: C, MMM, CAT, DE, EWZ, EWG, TEF, VOD, TEVA, PBR, EWA, FXI, BRXX, GMF, AA. The publication of Soos Global's opinions on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Soos Global's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalizedinvestment advicefor compensation, over the Internet.
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In addition to that, the markets would be right to focus on the earnings parade that was started on Thursday evening by Alcoa ( AA ) with its earnings beat and optimistic outlook. Disclosure: Long: C, MMM, CAT, DE, EWZ, EWG, TEF, VOD, TEVA, PBR, EWA, FXI, BRXX, GMF, AA. As for the coming week (Week of Oct 11), the calendar of economic data is chock full of inflation and retail sales indicators, as well as sentiment indicators, most of it back loaded at the end of the week.
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1832.0
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2010-10-08 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa’s Q3 Profit Beats View; Aluminum Consumption Forecast Raised (AA)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoas-q3-profit-beats-view-aluminum-consumption-forecast-raised-aa-2010-10-08
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nan
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nan
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.( AA ) late Thursday reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings and raised its aluminum consumption forecast for the year, sending its shares higher in premarket trading Friday.
The Pittsburgh-based company reported third quarter net income of $61 million, or 6 cents per share, compared with $77 million, or 8 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, adjusted profit was 9 cents per share.
On average, Wall Street analysts expected a smaller profit of 5 cents per share.
Alcoa said that revenue rose 15% from last year to $5.3 billion, bolstered by gains in its aerospace segment and higher market share in the building and construction segment.
Looking ahead, the company boosted its global aluminum consumption growth forecast to 13% from 12%, citing growing demand in China, Brazil, India and Russia.
Alcoa shares rose 30 cents, or +2.5%, in premarket trading Friday.
The Bottom Line
We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. The company has a dividend yield of .98%, based on last night's closing stock price of $12.20. The stock has technical support in the $10 price area. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $14 price level. We are watching the shares closely, but would remain on the sidelines for now.
Alcoa Inc.( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.( AA ) late Thursday reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings and raised its aluminum consumption forecast for the year, sending its shares higher in premarket trading Friday. Alcoa Inc.( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.( AA ) late Thursday reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings and raised its aluminum consumption forecast for the year, sending its shares higher in premarket trading Friday. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Alcoa Inc.( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.( AA ) late Thursday reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings and raised its aluminum consumption forecast for the year, sending its shares higher in premarket trading Friday. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Alcoa Inc.( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc.( AA ) late Thursday reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings and raised its aluminum consumption forecast for the year, sending its shares higher in premarket trading Friday. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Alcoa Inc.( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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1833.0
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2010-10-08 00:00:00 UTC
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What's behind Gerdau put selling
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/whats-behind-gerdau-put-selling-2010-10-08
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nan
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nan
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Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau has been building support at $13, and now one investor is betting that level will hold.
optionMONSTER's tracking systems detected the sale of 9,000 March 12.50 puts for $1, which reflects a belief the shares will remain above the strike price through expiration. The volume was below open interest, but the trade represented 6 times the average turnover, so it's definitely noteworthy.
A large block of GGB shares was purchased at about the same time, which suggests activity by an institutional investor.
Gerdau rose 0.84 percent to $13.25 in morning trading and has been mostly drifting sideways since early June. The stock is down about 9 percent in the last month, while the broader Brazilian index is up about 12 percent in the same period.
Metal producers in general have lagged despite improving sentiment across the emerging markets in recent months. Today, however, they are showing signs of life--especially after Alcoa's earnings beat estimates and management made bullish comments on demand.
Given the broader improvement in the sector and GGB's ability to remain above $13, today's put seller apparently thinks that there is little risk of the stock pushing lower. The company's next earnings report is scheduled for Nov. 5.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright © 2010 OptionMonster® Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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optionMONSTER's tracking systems detected the sale of 9,000 March 12.50 puts for $1, which reflects a belief the shares will remain above the strike price through expiration. Today, however, they are showing signs of life--especially after Alcoa's earnings beat estimates and management made bullish comments on demand. Given the broader improvement in the sector and GGB's ability to remain above $13, today's put seller apparently thinks that there is little risk of the stock pushing lower.
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Given the broader improvement in the sector and GGB's ability to remain above $13, today's put seller apparently thinks that there is little risk of the stock pushing lower. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The stock is down about 9 percent in the last month, while the broader Brazilian index is up about 12 percent in the same period. Given the broader improvement in the sector and GGB's ability to remain above $13, today's put seller apparently thinks that there is little risk of the stock pushing lower. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau has been building support at $13, and now one investor is betting that level will hold. The stock is down about 9 percent in the last month, while the broader Brazilian index is up about 12 percent in the same period. Given the broader improvement in the sector and GGB's ability to remain above $13, today's put seller apparently thinks that there is little risk of the stock pushing lower.
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1834.0
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2010-10-08 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: Pessimism Sinks DJIA Ahead of Payrolls Data
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-pessimism-sinks-djia-ahead-payrolls-data-2010-10-08
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nan
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nan
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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are trading roughly 13.5 points below fair value heading into the open, as Wall Street looks past Alcoa Inc.'s ( AA ) upbeat quarterly report to the Labor Department's September payrolls data. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is following suit, slipping about 2.5 points below fair value in premarket trading. Economists believe that the U.S. lost 8,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate ticking higher to 9.7% from 9.6% in August. The private sector is expected to have added 85,000 jobs. The DJIA's technical outlook remains the same, with support at 10,900, and 10,750, while resistance remains firm at 11,000. As for the SPX, look for the index to be bound by the 1,150 and 1,165 levels, with key support at the 1,135 level should today's data spark a selloff.
In equity news, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) reported a third-quarter profit of $61 million, or 6 cents per share. Excluding items, AA earned 9 cents per share. Sales for the quarter rose to $5.29 billion from $4.62 billion a year ago. Analysts were looking for a profit of 6 cents per share on sales of $4.95 billion. Alcoa also lifted its forecast for global aluminum demand to 13% from 12%. The stock was last seen higher by 3.87% in premarket trading.
Also, Micron Technology Inc. ( MU ) posted a fourth-quarter profit of $342 million, or 32 cents per share. Revenue was $2.49 billion, up from $1.3 billion a year ago. Analysts had expected the chip maker to report earnings of 39 cents per share on revenue of $2.66 billion. MU was last seen lower by about 1.2% ahead of the open.
Earnings Preview
There are no major earnings reports scheduled for release today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
The report we've been waiting all week for is finally here, as September's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will arrive this morning, followed by the considerably less hyped Commerce Department report on August wholesale inventories.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,155,306 call contracts traded on Thursday, compared to 793,908 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.69, while the 21-day moving average held at 0.59.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
Click here for the new summer issue of SENTIMENT magazine
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is in poor shape this morning, as only two of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite surged more than 3% in a catch-up rally after being closed for the past week. The rest of the region, however, finished broadly lower, with Japan once again taking a hit due to a rising yen. Meanwhile, European stocks are mostly lower ahead of this morning's payrolls data out of the U.S. Banks are leading the way lower, after an Abu Dhabi investment fund announced that it is hedging its position in Barclays plc ( BCS ).
Currencies and Commodities
The dollar is strengthening against its major foreign counterparts, and commodities are headed lower ahead of this morning's jobs data. At last check, the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.3% at 77.62, with the greenback gaining ground against the yen, but holding steady against the euro. Meanwhile, gold futures have pulled back from record highs to trade down $8.20 at $1,326.80 an ounce. Finally, crude futures are being hit hard, with the front-month contract down $1.00 at $80.67 per barrel.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are trading roughly 13.5 points below fair value heading into the open, as Wall Street looks past Alcoa Inc.'s ( AA ) upbeat quarterly report to the Labor Department's September payrolls data. In equity news, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) reported a third-quarter profit of $61 million, or 6 cents per share. Excluding items, AA earned 9 cents per share.
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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are trading roughly 13.5 points below fair value heading into the open, as Wall Street looks past Alcoa Inc.'s ( AA ) upbeat quarterly report to the Labor Department's September payrolls data. In equity news, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) reported a third-quarter profit of $61 million, or 6 cents per share. Excluding items, AA earned 9 cents per share.
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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are trading roughly 13.5 points below fair value heading into the open, as Wall Street looks past Alcoa Inc.'s ( AA ) upbeat quarterly report to the Labor Department's September payrolls data. In equity news, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) reported a third-quarter profit of $61 million, or 6 cents per share. Excluding items, AA earned 9 cents per share.
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In equity news, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) reported a third-quarter profit of $61 million, or 6 cents per share. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are trading roughly 13.5 points below fair value heading into the open, as Wall Street looks past Alcoa Inc.'s ( AA ) upbeat quarterly report to the Labor Department's September payrolls data. Excluding items, AA earned 9 cents per share.
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1835.0
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2010-10-08 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa Surges on Strong Q3 Results, Increasing Global Aluminum Demand
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoa-surges-strong-q3-results-increasing-global-aluminum-demand-2010-10-08
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa Inc ( AA ) is surging in morning trade after third quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations and the company raised its guidance for global aluminum demand.
The aluminum giant was also upgraded to "overweight" from "neutral" by J.P Morgan on the back of higher prices for the base metal. J.P. Morgan raised the target rate for the company to $20 a share from $16.
Alcoa posted earnings of $96 million, or 9 cents a share, up from $39 million, or 4 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters on average had expected 6 cents a share.
Looking ahead, the company sees a 13% increase in global aluminum demand especially in China, Brazil, India, and Russia.
Shares in the Pittsburgh-based company opened at $12.60, and have traded between $9.81 and $17.60 over the past 12 months.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc ( AA ) is surging in morning trade after third quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations and the company raised its guidance for global aluminum demand. The aluminum giant was also upgraded to "overweight" from "neutral" by J.P Morgan on the back of higher prices for the base metal. Looking ahead, the company sees a 13% increase in global aluminum demand especially in China, Brazil, India, and Russia.
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Alcoa Inc ( AA ) is surging in morning trade after third quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations and the company raised its guidance for global aluminum demand. Alcoa posted earnings of $96 million, or 9 cents a share, up from $39 million, or 4 cents a share. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc ( AA ) is surging in morning trade after third quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations and the company raised its guidance for global aluminum demand. Alcoa posted earnings of $96 million, or 9 cents a share, up from $39 million, or 4 cents a share. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc ( AA ) is surging in morning trade after third quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations and the company raised its guidance for global aluminum demand. The aluminum giant was also upgraded to "overweight" from "neutral" by J.P Morgan on the back of higher prices for the base metal. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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1836.0
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2010-10-07 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: DJIA Futures Edge Higher as Focus Remains on Jobs
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-djia-futures-edge-higher-focus-remains-jobs-2010-10-07
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nan
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nan
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished fractionally higher on Tuesday, even though the rest of Wall Street wasn't quite so lucky. In fact, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) backpedaled nearly 1%. Employment data remains front and center today, with the release of weekly initial jobless claims this morning and September's unemployment rate looming large tomorrow. Wall Street is cautiously optimistic, as futures on the DJIA and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are trading roughly 12 points and 1.2 points above fair value, respectively. Look for the Dow to find short-term support near 10,900, with the longer-term backdrop arriving at 10,750. Resistance now resides at 11,000. The SPX, meanwhile, should find a floor at 1,150, with the 1,165-1,170 region creating a ceiling.
On the equities front, PepsiCo Inc. ( PEP ) said that its third-quarter net profit rose 12% to $1.92 billion, or $1.19 per share, as revenue jumped 40% to $15.51 billion. PepsiCo said that core earnings were $1.22 per share. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.21 per share. PepsiCo said it now expects growth in core constant-currency earnings per share of between 11% and 12% for fiscal 2010, down from 11% to 13% growth.
Elsewhere, Avis Budget Group Inc. ( CAR ) said that it expects third-quarter EBITDA to be in a range of $210 million to $220 million. Revenue is expected to be about $1.5 billion. Analysts are looking for EBITDA of $217 million on sales of $1.52 billion.
Finally, a slew of retailers will be releasing September same-store sales data this morning. Among those reporting before the open, Limited Brands ( LTD ) said that its September same-store sales rose 12%, versus expectations for a rise of 4%. Net sales for the period rose 12.4% to $735.8 million, from $654.8 million a year ago.
Earnings Preview
On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ), and Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) will release their quarterly earnings reports today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
The Labor Department will release its weekly new jobless claims figures, while the Federal Reserve will report on consumer credit use in August. Finally, September's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will arrive tomorrow, as will the Commerce Department's report on August wholesale inventories.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,318,251 call contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 773,380 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.59, while the 21-day moving average held at 0.59.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
Click here for the new summer issue of SENTIMENT magazine
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is mixed this morning, as only five of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a loss of 0.03%. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite remained closed for the national holiday today, but will reopen tomorrow. Elsewhere, regional indexes traded mixed, with traders nervous ahead of tomorrow's U.S. employment data. Across the pond in Europe, regional indexes are headed higher after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank provided no changes to their monetary policies. The lack of movement was expected, but traders had been anxious following the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate cut.
Currencies and Commodities
Gold futures have set yet another in a string of record highs in overnight trading. The malleable metal tagged a high of $1,366 an ounce in Asia, though the December contract has moderated to a gain of $10.90 at $1,358.60 an ounce in London. The falling U.S. dollar is helping to provide lift for gold prices. The greenback continues to fall versus the Japanese yen, and slipped against the euro this morning after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both held interest rates steady. Finally, crude prices are extending this week's rally heading into the open, with the December contract up 43 cents at $83.66 per barrel.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ), and Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) will release their quarterly earnings reports today. Employment data remains front and center today, with the release of weekly initial jobless claims this morning and September's unemployment rate looming large tomorrow. Economic Calendar The Labor Department will release its weekly new jobless claims figures, while the Federal Reserve will report on consumer credit use in August.
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Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ), and Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) will release their quarterly earnings reports today. Employment data remains front and center today, with the release of weekly initial jobless claims this morning and September's unemployment rate looming large tomorrow. Among those reporting before the open, Limited Brands ( LTD ) said that its September same-store sales rose 12%, versus expectations for a rise of 4%.
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Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ), and Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) will release their quarterly earnings reports today. Employment data remains front and center today, with the release of weekly initial jobless claims this morning and September's unemployment rate looming large tomorrow. The greenback continues to fall versus the Japanese yen, and slipped against the euro this morning after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both held interest rates steady.
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Earnings Preview On the earnings front, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ), and Micron Technology, Inc. ( MU ) will release their quarterly earnings reports today. Employment data remains front and center today, with the release of weekly initial jobless claims this morning and September's unemployment rate looming large tomorrow. Analysts are looking for EBITDA of $217 million on sales of $1.52 billion.
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1837.0
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2010-10-07 00:00:00 UTC
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Earnings Season: How to Watch Your Step
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/earnings-season-how-watch-your-step-2010-10-07
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nan
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nan
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Stories that involve good advice tend to get re-told, and the ones with real value pop up again and again.
One of my favorites is the story of the legendary admiral who has a lock-box in his stateroom. Every day before he takes the bridge, he opens the lock-box, takes out a small piece of paper, reads it and puts it back.
Over the years, this quirk is noticed by many people, and there's lots of speculation about what's on the paper: an inspirational quote, a personal sentiment or some gritty piece of military advice?
When the admiral dies, his executors open the lock-box and read the paper.
It says "Port is Left, Starboard is Right."
I've heard this story at least three times, and in one telling it was a merchant captain, in another an unnamed admiral, and in the third, a specific admiral of some fame.
But while the information on the slip of paper would undoubtedly be useful for a man in charge of a ship, I've never seriously considered that the story might be true. (Although I'd love to be wrong; let me know if you have any supporting evidence.)
As someone who plies the sometimes choppy waters of the stock markets, I know that there are similar sentiments that can help put things in perspective.
If I had to look at one little piece of paper every morning, I'd probably put:
"Remember: When markets are going up, you're not a genius. When markets go down, you're not an idiot."
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With earnings season just beginning- Alcoa ( AA ) is the traditional first reporter, and it's announcing results today (October 7) after the NYSE closes-there will be plenty of both agony and ecstasy to go around. And that will make it even more important than usual to keep your emotional equilibrium.
I know that taking an earnings hit can be very painful. I've had personal holdings that dropped up to 25% after a disappointing earnings report. The stocks that have been the strongest (which means they had attracted the most hot money) usually drop farther and faster than more sedate issues. And I felt like an idiot for not taking profits the day before the earnings announcement.
So here are a few observations on earnings season to help you maintain an even keel as the news gaps stocks both up and down with no warning.
1) It's Not the Number, It's the Expected Number. If all companies had to do to stay in favor with investors was to keep growing revenue and earnings, quarterly reports would be a piece of cake. But investors pay close attention to the earnings estimates provided by analysts, who, in turn, get to set the bar where they think a company should perform. So a company can lose money and still "beat expectations" by losing less than analysts thought it would and investors will view that as a victory and bid the stock up. But even a 100% jump in earnings can kill a stock if analysts had predicted 101%.
2) Companies Make Predictions, Too. Even if a company comes up to the mark on revenue and earnings, it can get dinged because its projections for results in the next quarter (or year) are subpar. The result is often as bad as for an earnings miss.
3) Stormy Weather Is Expected. After the rosy Q2 results that put a booster seat under investors' confidence, advance guidance for the Q3 season has been running about two-to-one to the downside. Among S&P 500 stocks, pre-announcements now total 77 on the negative side and 34 on the positive side.
4) Don't Fight the Chart. A stock that disappoints on revenue or earnings or guidance or margins or anything and gaps down huge on above-average volume should probably be sold. Big damage that shows up in a stock's chart can take a long time to heal. You may be able to pick up a few points by waiting for the bounce that sometimes follows a big down day, but statistically, you're better off selling than waiting for the stock to get going again.
5) Catch a Rising Star. On the upside, a big gap up on volume typically gives a stock a head of steam that will continue to push the price higher. So don't let a big gain in a stock that soars on good results keep you from jumping on the bandwagon. Stocks get good mileage out of good results.
6) Keep a Razor Edge on Your Sell Disciplines. I've said this before, but it's too important not to repeat. When you buy a stock, you should calculate your 15% and 20% loss limits and write them down where you can see them. This will help you to keep your head when bad news hits. If a stock hands you a 20% loss from your buy price at the close of trading, kick it out!
Here's to a great earnings season with positive surprises in each and every one of your holdings (and mine, too, as long as we're ordering up good luck)! And as always, I will be rooting for the stocks in the portfolio of the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, most of which have scheduled their announcements for November, as is typical for smaller, emerging market stocks. I'll tell all of my subscribers how to handle the ups and downs for each holding, and I'd be glad to tell you, too. A quick click right here will get you started on a guided tour of the hottest markets on earth.
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If you take the responsibility seriously, recommending any stock is a genuine risk. After all, mutual fund managers who can pick 51% winners-even with all the research and analysis resources in the world-are considered real gunslingers. For me, if a stock doesn't meet all of my requirements, it goes on the Watch List, not into the portfolio.
That's why I won't be recommending 51job ( JOBS ) , the Chinese recruiting and human resource company, for the readers of Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report.
The company has lots of things going for it, including its admirable earnings line (up 300%, 233% and 120% from terrible 2008/09 levels) and revenue growth (gains of 15%, 43% and 37%). After-tax profit margins have been over 20% for the latest four quarters, with an juicy 24.9% in the latest quarter. And earnings estimates are running at $1.14 per share for 2010, well up from $0.73 in 2009.
51job is a pretty seasoned company for China, founded in 1998 and based in Shanghai, which is the heart of China's commercial zone. The company serves both potential employers and job seekers, using both online and print media. The 51job Weekly is a recruiting publication that's customized for particular cities and distributed in newspapers or as a stand-alone. 51job also offers executive search and business process outsourcing services, and will train clients in job skills from secretarial and manufacturing to management and financial planning.
JOBS has been on a roll since April 2009, with a seven-month basing period from December 2009 to July 2010 under resistance at 20. The blastoff from that base began in July, but really picked up speed (and volume support) in September.
All in all, it's a great package, and the prospects for the company are excellent as China's need for better-trained employees and executive talent heats up. 51job is a very direct play on the growth of China's domestic economy.
So what's the problem? It's the discouragingly low volume the stock trades at. With only an average of 150,000 shares changing hands per day, the stock's volatility is just too high to recommend to a large group of people. It's an appropriate vehicle for the nimble individual investor, but its float of seven million shares will have to increase to make it attractive to institutional investors … and to me, of course.
Sincerely,
Paul Goodwin
For Cabot Wealth Advisory
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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--- With earnings season just beginning- Alcoa ( AA ) is the traditional first reporter, and it's announcing results today (October 7) after the NYSE closes-there will be plenty of both agony and ecstasy to go around. Over the years, this quirk is noticed by many people, and there's lots of speculation about what's on the paper: an inspirational quote, a personal sentiment or some gritty piece of military advice? 51job also offers executive search and business process outsourcing services, and will train clients in job skills from secretarial and manufacturing to management and financial planning.
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--- With earnings season just beginning- Alcoa ( AA ) is the traditional first reporter, and it's announcing results today (October 7) after the NYSE closes-there will be plenty of both agony and ecstasy to go around. This year, Cabot Green Investor has already locked in big profits on Maxwell Technologies (47%), American Superconductor (40%) and Telvent (29%), among others. And as always, I will be rooting for the stocks in the portfolio of the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, most of which have scheduled their announcements for November, as is typical for smaller, emerging market stocks.
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--- With earnings season just beginning- Alcoa ( AA ) is the traditional first reporter, and it's announcing results today (October 7) after the NYSE closes-there will be plenty of both agony and ecstasy to go around. So a company can lose money and still "beat expectations" by losing less than analysts thought it would and investors will view that as a victory and bid the stock up. And as always, I will be rooting for the stocks in the portfolio of the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report, most of which have scheduled their announcements for November, as is typical for smaller, emerging market stocks.
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--- With earnings season just beginning- Alcoa ( AA ) is the traditional first reporter, and it's announcing results today (October 7) after the NYSE closes-there will be plenty of both agony and ecstasy to go around. I've had personal holdings that dropped up to 25% after a disappointing earnings report. And I felt like an idiot for not taking profits the day before the earnings announcement.
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1838.0
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2010-10-06 00:00:00 UTC
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Options Trade of the Day: An Alcoa Inc. Debit Spread Ahead of Earnings
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/options-trade-day-alcoa-inc-debit-spread-ahead-earnings-2010-10-06
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nan
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nan
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After the close of trading tomorrow night, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will unofficially kick off the third-quarter earnings season on Wall Street. The company is expected to post a profit of 5 cents per share for the quarter, up a penny from the same period a year ago. During the past four reporting periods, AA has topped the consensus estimate twice, and missed expectations twice. Naturally, options traders are already positioning themselves ahead of the company's report. However, the question for most novice traders is, "What strategy should I use to take advantage of this event?"
There are always the tried and true straddle and strangle strategies, which are designed to take advantage of large moves in a stock, without respect to direction. But what if you have a directional preference? What if, given the overall uptrend in the market during the past several weeks, you expect AA to rally following tomorrow night's announcement?
Well, you're in luck. Today's trading example lays out a strategy that not only benefits from a post-earnings AA rally, but also provides the means to lower your risk and your breakeven. At about 11:58 a.m. Eastern time, a block of 5,400 AA April 12 calls traded on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) for the ask price of $1.60, or $160 per contract. At the same time, 5,400 April 13 calls changed hands for the bid price of $1.09, or $109 per contract. The end result is a vertical call spread, or, as it is more commonly known, a debit spread .
The Anatomy of an Alcoa Inc. Vertical Call Spread
Breaking down this debit spread, the trader purchased 5,400 April 12 calls for the ask price of $1.60, resulting in a debit of $864,000 -- (1.60 * 100) * 5,400 = $864,000. In the absence of the premium received by selling the April 13 call, the trader would need AA to rally roughly 12%, from Monday's close at $12.14, to $13.60 per share, in order for the position to reach breakeven at expiration. Furthermore, the maximum loss on this leg of the position is limited to the initial investment of $864,000.
As you can see, the second leg of the debit spread helps to offset the cost of the overall position. In this case, the trader sold 5,400 April 13 calls for the bid price of $1.09, netting a total credit of $588,600 -- (1.09 * 100) * 5,400 = $588,600. Combining this leg of the trade with the purchased April 12 call lowers the total cost of the entire position to $275,400 -- $864,000 - $588,600 = $275,400.
The maximum profit is calculated by subtracting the premium paid from the difference between the two strikes, and is reached if AA rallies to $13 per share at expiration. In this case, the maximum profit is $0.49 -- (13 - 12) - 0.51 = $0.49 -- or $49 per contract. The maximum loss is equal to the net debit of $0.51, or $51 per contract. Below is a chart for a rough visual representation of the trade's profit/loss scenario:
Implied Volatility
After the vertical call spread has been entered, increasing implied volatility is pretty much neutral to the overall position, as it lifts the value of both the sold option and the purchased option. At the time of the trade, implieds for the April 12 call arrived at 39.79%, while the implied volatility for the April 13 call came in at 37.50%.
Click here for the new summer issue of SENTIMENT magazine
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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After the close of trading tomorrow night, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will unofficially kick off the third-quarter earnings season on Wall Street. In the absence of the premium received by selling the April 13 call, the trader would need AA to rally roughly 12%, from Monday's close at $12.14, to $13.60 per share, in order for the position to reach breakeven at expiration. The maximum profit is calculated by subtracting the premium paid from the difference between the two strikes, and is reached if AA rallies to $13 per share at expiration.
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After the close of trading tomorrow night, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will unofficially kick off the third-quarter earnings season on Wall Street. During the past four reporting periods, AA has topped the consensus estimate twice, and missed expectations twice. What if, given the overall uptrend in the market during the past several weeks, you expect AA to rally following tomorrow night's announcement?
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In the absence of the premium received by selling the April 13 call, the trader would need AA to rally roughly 12%, from Monday's close at $12.14, to $13.60 per share, in order for the position to reach breakeven at expiration. After the close of trading tomorrow night, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will unofficially kick off the third-quarter earnings season on Wall Street. During the past four reporting periods, AA has topped the consensus estimate twice, and missed expectations twice.
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After the close of trading tomorrow night, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will unofficially kick off the third-quarter earnings season on Wall Street. During the past four reporting periods, AA has topped the consensus estimate twice, and missed expectations twice. What if, given the overall uptrend in the market during the past several weeks, you expect AA to rally following tomorrow night's announcement?
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1839.0
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2010-10-05 00:00:00 UTC
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3 Stocks to Watch as Earnings Season Kicks Off
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-stocks-watch-earnings-season-kicks-2010-10-05
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nan
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nan
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As my colleague Mike Turner has noted, September was one for the record books. [ Read Mike's article here ]
And as Mike notes, it never hurts to play a little defense after such a good run. But in these markets, you'll need to stay nimble. Comingearnings reports may just be good enough to keep the markets moving north, forestalling the moment when profit-taking dominates the action.
With that in mind, let's look at three companies that will report quarterly results in the next week or so. What they have to say about business conditions may well set the trading tone for the rest of October and beyond.
Aloca ( AA )
On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. And a few days after that, Alcoa always kicks off earnings season . For the past few years, Alcoa has set a somber tone as global demand for aluminum has been in a slump ever since Europe and the United States headed into the downturn. Yet I recently opined that a turn may be coming for Alcoa. [Read: " The Best Rebound Play in the Dow "]
That turn is likely to be in evidence in 2011 and even more noticeably in 2012. But what about right now? Well, expectations are low, and that's a good thing. On Monday morning, Deutsche Bank downgraded Alcoa to a short-term sell rating. (Curiously, Deutsche Bank's target price was reduced from $18 to $15.50 which is still roughly +30% above current prices. And their analysts lowered their 2011 EPS forecast from $1.50 to $1.29, which is still well above the $1.01 consensus EPS estimate).
There is little that Alcoa can say to rattle the market as investors expect demand and aluminum pricing to stay weak for at least the remainder of 2010. But as I noted a few weeks ago, output of aluminum has been very restrained, and as a result, the London Metals Exchange (LME) reports that inventories now sit at a 52-week low. The market is already reflecting tighter supply: the spot aluminum price has risen from $1,900 per ton in June to a recent $2,330 (though it remains roughly $1,000 per ton lower than the 2008 peak).
Demand remains well below 2008 levels, but so does supply. So there's no reason that prices can't move back toward the $3,000 mark -- as long as the industry maintains its current production discipline. On this Thursday's conference call, give a close listen to management's discussion of output. As the world's biggest supplier of aluminum, Alcoa can set the tone for supply -- and pricing.
Supply, demand and pricing are key concerns for all kinds of metal producers. The market dynamics in aluminum apply to steel and copper as well, and as noted in this article , many metals producers sport very low P/E ratios.
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
This technology bellwether has given investors whiplash this summer. In mid-July, Intel released solid second quarter results and CEO Paul Ottelini told investors that "in Q2, we saw the return of corporate purchases," adding that industry had finally moved past the 2009 downturn. "The difference is that corporations are buying now in addition to consumers," Otellini said at the time. Well, six weeks later, Intel had a change of heart, lowering third quarter revenue forecasts by about $600 million. "Revenue is being affected by weaker-than-expected demand for consumer PCs in mature markets," said Intel in late August. Shares now languish just above the 52-week low.
Even as shares appear cheap at less than 10 times projected 2010 profits, there may be little management can do to get the stock moving on next Tuesday's conference call. After the Jekyll-and-Hyde commentary from earlier this summer, few investors would believe the company if it spoke in bullish terms. And therein lies the opportunity for tech stocks. Investors now have ample time to digest earnings reports and look for the best tech names to own, as sector shares are unlikely to see heavy buying in coming weeks, no matter how strong earnings results and outlooks are.
That's not to say that tech stocks are unattractive, they just aren't timely. Yet many large tech stocks are trading at very cheap multiples. [See: " This Sector's Mountain of Cash Could Soon Line Your Pocket "]
And if a so-so earnings season makes these stocks any cheaper, then value investors will queue up to buy shares while they are at generational lows. Equally important, it's too soon to conclude that 2011 tech spending will be lousy, even if share prices seem to anticipate that. This is an industry where the reward seems far greater than the risk, even if no near-term catalysts exist. (If you're a tech investor, you should also check out Micron Technology's ( MU ) results, which will be released on the same day.)
CSX Corp. ( CSX )
On the same day that Intel and Micron report, freight carrier CSX will also weigh in. Freight volumes are a key tell for investors trying to gauge the economic activity in the economy . Analysts expect CSX to report a +16% jump in revenue from a year ago, which should lead to a +40% spike in profits, thanks to impressive operatingleverage . But investors should know that the easy gains may be winding down and the year-over-year comparisons in future quarters may be far less robust, as CSX's results already started to turn up nicely last fall.
Shares have made a solid +15% upward move since late August and aren't much of a bargain right now. So the key here is to see what CSX has to say about the broader economy. If freight volumes are off to a solid start in the fourth quarter, that's a good omen for the U.S. economy as a whole.
Action to Take --> The conference calls for Alcoa, Intel and CSX will tell a great deal about the current state of economic activity -- pay particular attention to them even if you're not considering these stocks for your portfolio. Alcoa and Intel are deeply tied into global trends, while CSX is more focused on North American activity. With the economy appearing to wobble on the fine line between modest growth and modest contraction, these companies' outlooks will surely set the tone for the entire earnings season.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Aloca ( AA ) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. In mid-July, Intel released solid second quarter results and CEO Paul Ottelini told investors that "in Q2, we saw the return of corporate purchases," adding that industry had finally moved past the 2009 downturn. [See: " This Sector's Mountain of Cash Could Soon Line Your Pocket "] And if a so-so earnings season makes these stocks any cheaper, then value investors will queue up to buy shares while they are at generational lows.
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Aloca ( AA ) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. There is little that Alcoa can say to rattle the market as investors expect demand and aluminum pricing to stay weak for at least the remainder of 2010. -- David Sterman David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks.
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Aloca ( AA ) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. There is little that Alcoa can say to rattle the market as investors expect demand and aluminum pricing to stay weak for at least the remainder of 2010. In mid-July, Intel released solid second quarter results and CEO Paul Ottelini told investors that "in Q2, we saw the return of corporate purchases," adding that industry had finally moved past the 2009 downturn.
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Aloca ( AA ) On the first Monday in October, the Supreme Court kicks off a new term. There is little that Alcoa can say to rattle the market as investors expect demand and aluminum pricing to stay weak for at least the remainder of 2010. Shares now languish just above the 52-week low.
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1840.0
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2010-10-05 00:00:00 UTC
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Nasdaq Could Lead the Market Down
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nasdaq-could-lead-market-down-2010-10-05
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nan
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nan
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With the Q3 earnings set to begin this week and a crucial jobs report due, investors' fear of failure on both fronts led them to sell stocks and run to the traditional safe havens of the U.S. dollar and Treasurys yesterday. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), which is traditionally the first of the Dow 30 stocks to report earnings, fell 2.5%. AA will report earnings on Thursday.
Financial stocks were hard hit as a result of a Justice Department lawsuit against American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ), with the sector falling 6.5%. The government accused AXP of imposing rules on merchants that are "anti-competitive." Both Visa Inc. (NYSE: V ) and MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA ) closed fractionally lower since they had agreed to settle the government's claims.
Tech stocks were among the worst performers. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT ) led the charge lower, off 1.9%, following a rating cut in by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS ) from "buy" to "neutral," and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC ) fell 2.3%. As a result of the two tech giants taking big hits, the technology-laden Nasdaq fell 1.1%.
Mergers and acquisitions were in the news on Monday. Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY ) offered to acquire Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ ) for $69, Microsemi Corporation (NASDAQ: MSCC ) offered Actel Corporation (NASDAQ: ACTL ) $20.88 per share, and Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE ) rejected an offer from KKR Financial Holdings LLC (NYSE: KKR ).
Factory orders for August fell 0.5% versus an expected decline of 0.4%. And pending home sales increased by 4.3% versus an estimate of 1%.
The 10-year Treasury note's yield fell to 2.481%, and the two-year fell to a record low of 0.407%. The greenback rose against both the euro and the yen, and was up 0.5% versus a basket of six currencies. The euro fell to $1.3689 versus $1.3784 on Friday.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 78 points to 10,751, the S&P 500 fell 9 points to 1,137, and the Nasdaq dropped 26 points to 2,345.
The NYSE traded 943 million shares, and the Nasdaq exchanged 521 million shares. On both exchanges decliners were ahead by advancers by 2.75-to-1.
Crude oil for November delivery fell 11 cents to $81.47 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) fell 71 cents to $56.10.
December gold fell $1 to settle at $1,316.80 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) fell 3.49 points, closing at 196.77.
What the Markets Are Saying
During the last two weeks, the S&P 500 has established a tight trading range with support at 1,131 and resistance at 1,150. On Thursday, the index penetrated 1,150, but then quickly sold off on a daily reversal. This was the second reversal within this tight range and puts pressure on the bulls since a break in the support line (1,130) could turn into a very quick fall to the 200-day moving average , now at 1,117.
The Dow's trading range is similar with support at 10,700 and resistance at 10,890. But the Nasdaq's range is a bit more ragged with support at around 2,335 and resistance at 2,385.
Since the Nasdaq has led the market up since the August bottom, it could likely lead the market down. So we should focus on the Nasdaq for clues as to which direction the general trend might take. Yesterday, while the Dow was off 0.72% and the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq was hit for a 1.11% loss - not a good sign for the bulls.
On Friday, I opined that the "sell in May and go away" indicator expires on or about Halloween, thus it is sometimes called the "Halloween indicator." As a result, some of our readers interpreted this to mean that I am turning more bullish.
As I have often said, "I am neither bullish nor bearish, just pragmatic." By watching our indicators, I try to read the market for what it is telling us, so I don't "predict," but rather "respond" to the market's signals. Sometimes I'm led astray but, most often, if I wait long enough, the market finally comes through with a clear signal.
Patience is a key to investment success, and part of that process is to be aware of what happened yesterday, but also what might occur in the future. The expiration of the Halloween indicator is a "what might occur in the future" bullish indicator. And there is another event - the election - that could have a major impact on stock prices, and that too could be bullish.
With both events in mind, we should continue to monitor our internal and sentiment indicators, and if by the end of October, they have fallen to an "oversold" status, we might consider a more aggressive program on the buy side.
In investments, as well as in life, is it best to exercise patience, avoid predictions and always be aware of your changing surroundings.
With that in mind, consider the strong performance of Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F ) on a pretty lousy day for the market. And it just so happens that Ford is our Trade of the Day .
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Wolverine.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: Diamond Foods, Team and YUM! Brands.
Economic reports due: ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales, Redbook and ISM non-manufacturing index (the consensus expects 52).
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
Double Your Money on the Rumor AND the News- Learn how to cut through the rumor and manipulation surrounding corporate earnings announcements and bank money-doubling option trades all year long. Download our FREE trading guide here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), which is traditionally the first of the Dow 30 stocks to report earnings, fell 2.5%. AA will report earnings on Thursday. With the Q3 earnings set to begin this week and a crucial jobs report due, investors' fear of failure on both fronts led them to sell stocks and run to the traditional safe havens of the U.S. dollar and Treasurys yesterday.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), which is traditionally the first of the Dow 30 stocks to report earnings, fell 2.5%. AA will report earnings on Thursday. Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY ) offered to acquire Genzyme Corporation (NASDAQ: GENZ ) for $69, Microsemi Corporation (NASDAQ: MSCC ) offered Actel Corporation (NASDAQ: ACTL ) $20.88 per share, and Sara Lee Corp. (NYSE: SLE ) rejected an offer from KKR Financial Holdings LLC (NYSE: KKR ).
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), which is traditionally the first of the Dow 30 stocks to report earnings, fell 2.5%. AA will report earnings on Thursday. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT ) led the charge lower, off 1.9%, following a rating cut in by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS ) from "buy" to "neutral," and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC ) fell 2.3%.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), which is traditionally the first of the Dow 30 stocks to report earnings, fell 2.5%. AA will report earnings on Thursday. The euro fell to $1.3689 versus $1.3784 on Friday.
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1841.0
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2010-10-04 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: DJIA Futures Weak as Wall Street Preps for September Jobs Data
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-djia-futures-weak-wall-street-preps-september-jobs-data-2010-10-04
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nan
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Despite logging a stellar September and third-quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended both with a whimper last week. Traders looking for a quick start to October may have to wait a few more days, as Wall Street jockeys for position ahead of this week's trio of employment reports and Thursday's kickoff of the third-quarter earnings season. All eyes will be trained on Dow component Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Thursday, while the September nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate arrive on Friday. Look for the DJIA to remain between support at the 10,750 level and resistance near 10,900, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) sidles between the 1,135 and 1,150 levels. Heading into the open this morning, futures on the DJIA and the SPX are trading roughly 20 points and 2.2 points below fair value, respectively.
In equity news, Sanofi-Aventis ( SNY ) has launched a hostile $18.5 billion offer for Genzyme Corp. ( GENZ ) following the company's rejection of a similar offer. The deal values GENZ at $69 per share. "While Sanofi-Aventis' strong preference is to engage in constructive discussions with Genzyme, Genzyme's board and management team's continued refusal to do so has led Sanofi-Aventis to commence the tender offer," the company said in a statement.
Elsewhere, Continental Airlines, a unit of United Continental Holdings Inc. ( UAL ), said that total September traffic rose 3.1%, to more than 7.16 billion revenue passenger miles, from a year ago. Total September capacity rose 1.4%, to 8.64 billion available seat miles, from a year ago. Load factor, or the percentage of available seats filled with passengers, in September rose 1.4 points, to 82.9% from last year. Continental's mainline unit revenue jumped by an estimated range of 21% to 22%.
Finally, Chesapeake Energy Corp. ( CHK ) sold five years of natural gas production from its Barnett Shale fields in Texas to affiliates of Barclays Bank plc ( BCS ) for $1.15 billion. The deal includes 390 billion cubic feet of proved reserves and 270 million cubic feet per day of net production in 2011.
Earnings Preview
On the earnings front, The Mosaic Company ( MOS ) will release its quarterly earnings report today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
The Commerce Department will report on August factory orders today. On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors will release pending home sales numbers for August, while the Institute for Supply Management offers up its services index for September. We'll get the usual weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies on Wednesday, along with the ADP report on September private sector employment. On Thursday, the Labor Department will release the weekly new jobless claims figures, while the Federal Reserve will report on consumer credit use in August. Finally, September's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will arrive on Friday, as will the Commerce Department's report on August wholesale inventories.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the CBOE saw 1,052,033 call contracts traded on Friday, compared to 604,616 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.57, while the 21-day moving average rebounded to 0.59.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
Click here for the new summer issue of SENTIMENT magazine
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is mixed this morning, as four of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a loss of 0.14%. In Asia, regional markets finished mostly higher, with Hong Kong tagging a 10-month high following reports of strong property sales by the city's two largest developers. Japanese stocks, however, ended lower after RBC Investment recommended higher capital requirements in the region. China's markets are closed from Oct. 1-Oct. 7 for the National Day holiday. Trading will resume on Friday, Oct. 8. In Europe, stocks are trading broadly lower this morning following news that euro zone producer prices rose 0.1% in August. For the year, producer prices are up 3.6%.
Currencies and Commodities
Crude futures are pulling back from last week's seven-week highs today, as traders grow nervous ahead of several key U.S. employment reports scheduled for later this week. At last check, the December contract was down 49 cents at $78.41 per barrel. A rising U.S. dollar is also applying pressure to crude prices, as the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.40% at 78.41, as investors search for safe havens. Due to its recent popularity, gold prices are holding their own, despite the rising dollar. In London, the December gold contract was last seen lower by $1.10 at $1,316.70 an ounce.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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All eyes will be trained on Dow component Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Thursday, while the September nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate arrive on Friday. Traders looking for a quick start to October may have to wait a few more days, as Wall Street jockeys for position ahead of this week's trio of employment reports and Thursday's kickoff of the third-quarter earnings season. Finally, Chesapeake Energy Corp. ( CHK ) sold five years of natural gas production from its Barnett Shale fields in Texas to affiliates of Barclays Bank plc ( BCS ) for $1.15 billion.
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All eyes will be trained on Dow component Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Thursday, while the September nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate arrive on Friday. Elsewhere, Continental Airlines, a unit of United Continental Holdings Inc. ( UAL ), said that total September traffic rose 3.1%, to more than 7.16 billion revenue passenger miles, from a year ago. Finally, September's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will arrive on Friday, as will the Commerce Department's report on August wholesale inventories.
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All eyes will be trained on Dow component Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Thursday, while the September nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate arrive on Friday. Elsewhere, Continental Airlines, a unit of United Continental Holdings Inc. ( UAL ), said that total September traffic rose 3.1%, to more than 7.16 billion revenue passenger miles, from a year ago. Finally, September's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will arrive on Friday, as will the Commerce Department's report on August wholesale inventories.
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All eyes will be trained on Dow component Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) on Thursday, while the September nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate arrive on Friday. In equity news, Sanofi-Aventis ( SNY ) has launched a hostile $18.5 billion offer for Genzyme Corp. ( GENZ ) following the company's rejection of a similar offer. Finally, September's nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will arrive on Friday, as will the Commerce Department's report on August wholesale inventories.
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1842.0
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2010-10-01 00:00:00 UTC
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6 Sinking Stocks a Bull Market Won’t Save
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/6-sinking-stocks-bull-market-wont-save-2010-10-01
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nan
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nan
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Trade These Stocks in for Some Winners
It looks like the bull may be back! On Oct. 5, the major indices broke through resistance that has held back buyers for more than five months. This puts the market back on the offensive, and investors should be, too.
But some stocks either did not participate in the September advance or are so overpriced that profits should be taken. Here are six stocks to sell and either hold the cash or invest in a good quality stock that will participate in a general market advance.
Stock to Sell #1: Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM ) is a developer of solutions designed to accelerate and improve the delivery of Internet content.The stock has more than doubled in one year and jumped 43% in the past seven weeks. With a price/earnings ratio of 59 times 2010 earnings, and the stock selling at more than 35% above its 200-day moving average , it appears time to cash in this high performer and nail down a profit.
Technically AKAM is in a powerful bull market, but a small top is forming and a close under $50 could result in a quick drop to $40 to $45. S&P rates AKAM a "two-star sell."
See Key
Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Ford Research downgraded the stock on Sept. 24 to a "sell" based on a "very negative" earnings trend over the past five years. Technically the recent rally failed to reach the stock's 200-day moving average, and the stochastic is overvalued. Alcoa has regularly underperformed the market and its competition. Sell AA at market.
See Key
Stock to Sell #3: McKesson Corp. (MCK) McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK ) offers medicines, pharmaceutical supplies, and information and care management products and services for the health care industry.The stock has not kept pace with the market and is still in a downtrend. Its relative strength is bearish, there are sellers on balance, and the stochastic recently flashed a sell signal. Sell MCK at market. See Key
Stock to Sell #4: Monsanto Co. (MON) The major agricultural chemical firm Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON ) double-topped in July 2009 and January 2010. It then executed a "death cross" in March, and has been in a bear market since that time. Following a two-month rally, our proprietary indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR), flashed a sell at over $60 in July, and the stock promptly fell 10 points. Recent heavy selling and poor earnings continue to put pressure on the stock. Sell MON at market.
See Key
Stock to Sell #5: Panera Bread Co. (PNRA) Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA ) is the franchiser of 1,400 bakery-cafes. The stock has been a super performer; however, at 25 times 2010 earnings it is overvalued compared to its peer group, according to Standard and Poor's. S&P rates PNRA a "two-star sell." Technically the stock appears to have double-topped and recently flashed a sell signal from our internal indicator, the CBR, as well as from the stochastic. Sell PNRA at market. See Key
Stock to Sell #6: Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) Leading coffee retailer Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX ) has done well by shareholders, doubling in price in one year. However, with the price of coffee dramatically increasing and close to a 13-year high, earnings are under pressure, according to S&P, which now rates the stock a "two-star sell."Technically SBUX has broken its bullish support line, received a sell from the stochastic, and is close to issuing a "death cross." It is time for holders of Starbucks to cash in their profits.
See Key
Free Chart of the Day -Watch as chart wizard John Lansing details chart patterns on specific stocks set to deliver quick profits. It's sent right to your inbox each trading day - FREE!
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Following a two-month rally, our proprietary indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR), flashed a sell at over $60 in July, and the stock promptly fell 10 points.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Stock to Sell #1: Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM ) is a developer of solutions designed to accelerate and improve the delivery of Internet content.The stock has more than doubled in one year and jumped 43% in the past seven weeks.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Here are six stocks to sell and either hold the cash or invest in a good quality stock that will participate in a general market advance.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Trade These Stocks in for Some Winners It looks like the bull may be back!
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1843.0
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2010-10-01 00:00:00 UTC
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6 Sinking Stocks a Bull Market Won’t Save
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/6-sinking-stocks-bull-market-wont-save-2010-10-01-0
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nan
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nan
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Trade These Stocks in for Some Winners
It looks like the bull may be back! On Oct. 5, the major indices broke through resistance that has held back buyers for more than five months. This puts the market back on the offensive, and investors should be, too.
But some stocks either did not participate in the September advance or are so overpriced that profits should be taken. Here are six stocks to sell and either hold the cash or invest in a good quality stock that will participate in a general market advance.
Stock to Sell #1: Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM ) is a developer of solutions designed to accelerate and improve the delivery of Internet content.The stock has more than doubled in one year and jumped 43% in the past seven weeks. With a price/earnings ratio of 59 times 2010 earnings, and the stock selling at more than 35% above its 200-day moving average , it appears time to cash in this high performer and nail down a profit.
Technically AKAM is in a powerful bull market, but a small top is forming and a close under $50 could result in a quick drop to $40 to $45. S&P rates AKAM a "two-star sell."
See Key
Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Ford Research downgraded the stock on Sept. 24 to a "sell" based on a "very negative" earnings trend over the past five years. Technically the recent rally failed to reach the stock's 200-day moving average, and the stochastic is overvalued. Alcoa has regularly underperformed the market and its competition. Sell AA at market.
See Key
Stock to Sell #3: McKesson Corp. (MCK) McKesson Corporation (NYSE: MCK ) offers medicines, pharmaceutical supplies, and information and care management products and services for the health care industry.The stock has not kept pace with the market and is still in a downtrend. Its relative strength is bearish, there are sellers on balance, and the stochastic recently flashed a sell signal. Sell MCK at market. See Key
Stock to Sell #4: Monsanto Co. (MON) The major agricultural chemical firm Monsanto Company (NYSE: MON ) double-topped in July 2009 and January 2010. It then executed a "death cross" in March, and has been in a bear market since that time. Following a two-month rally, our proprietary indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR), flashed a sell at over $60 in July, and the stock promptly fell 10 points. Recent heavy selling and poor earnings continue to put pressure on the stock. Sell MON at market.
See Key
Stock to Sell #5: Panera Bread Co. (PNRA) Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA ) is the franchiser of 1,400 bakery-cafes. The stock has been a super performer; however, at 25 times 2010 earnings it is overvalued compared to its peer group, according to Standard and Poor's. S&P rates PNRA a "two-star sell." Technically the stock appears to have double-topped and recently flashed a sell signal from our internal indicator, the CBR, as well as from the stochastic. Sell PNRA at market. See Key
Stock to Sell #6: Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) Leading coffee retailer Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX ) has done well by shareholders, doubling in price in one year. However, with the price of coffee dramatically increasing and close to a 13-year high, earnings are under pressure, according to S&P, which now rates the stock a "two-star sell."Technically SBUX has broken its bullish support line, received a sell from the stochastic, and is close to issuing a "death cross." It is time for holders of Starbucks to cash in their profits.
See Key
Free Chart of the Day -Watch as chart wizard John Lansing details chart patterns on specific stocks set to deliver quick profits. It's sent right to your inbox each trading day - FREE!
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Following a two-month rally, our proprietary indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR), flashed a sell at over $60 in July, and the stock promptly fell 10 points.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Stock to Sell #1: Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM ) is a developer of solutions designed to accelerate and improve the delivery of Internet content.The stock has more than doubled in one year and jumped 43% in the past seven weeks.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Here are six stocks to sell and either hold the cash or invest in a good quality stock that will participate in a general market advance.
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See Key Stock to Sell #2: Alcoa (AA) Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is still in a bear market. Sell AA at market. Trade These Stocks in for Some Winners It looks like the bull may be back!
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1844.0
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2010-09-28 00:00:00 UTC
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Market Update: DJIA Rebounds Despite Falling Consumer Confidence
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/market-update-djia-rebounds-despite-falling-consumer-confidence-2010-09-28
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nan
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nan
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It's been a rocky morning on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bouncing back from an 80-point loss to trade just shy of the 10,850 level at last check. The blue-chip barometer quickly plunged on the open, after the Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence gauge fell to 48.5 in September, hitting its lowest level since February. The news overshadowed a rise in the Case-Shiller home price index. The Dow rebounded from growing support in the 10,750 region, but has been unable gain a foothold above 10,850 in intraday trading.
Overall, two thirds of the Dow's 30 components are trading in positive territory, with The Travelers Companies Inc. ( TRV ) and The Home Depot Inc. ( HD ) rising to the top, while Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO ) are sinking to the bottom.
In equity news, shares of Walgreen Co. ( WAG ) have soared more than 10% to hit a four-month high, as traders cheered the company's stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report . Specifically, Walgreen said that its fourth-quarter earnings, excluding items, came in at 54 cents per share, as revenue rose to $16.9 billion. Analysts were looking for a profit of 44 cents per share. Looking ahead, Walgreen said it was "confident" that earnings would continue to grow.
Taking a closer look at this morning's economic data, the prices of single-family homes rose a non-seasonally unadjusted 0.6% in July, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. Prices have added 3.2% in the past year. Prices rose in 12 of the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by Case-Shiller. Economists expect home prices to moderate in coming months as demand slows.
However, the rise in home prices was overshadowed by a sharp drop in consumer confidence. Specifically, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 48.5 in September, hitting the lowest level since February. Economists were expecting a reading of 51.5. Within the report, consumers' expectations dropped to 65.4 in September, while the current conditions index fell to 23.1 - both readings were at their lowest levels since February.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
On the options front, the iShares Russell 200 Index Fund ( IWM ) exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) is dominating the put side of the coin today, with more than 153,000 of these bearishly oriented contracts changing hands. Volume has more than doubled IWM's daily average of 76,648 contracts. Digging deeper, we find that the out-of-the-money November 59 strike is the most popular, attracting more than 51,000 contracts at last check.
On the call side, Baidu Inc. ( BIDU ) is popular once again, with volume of 47,000 contracts more than tripling the stock's daily average of just 14,928 contracts. Traders have zeroed in on the stock's out-of-the-money October 105 call, as peak volume of 7,522 contracts has changed hands at this strike so far today. Earlier in the session, BIDU tagged yet another all-time high of $107.19 per share.
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Click here for the new summer issue of SENTIMENT magazine
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Overall, two thirds of the Dow's 30 components are trading in positive territory, with The Travelers Companies Inc. ( TRV ) and The Home Depot Inc. ( HD ) rising to the top, while Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO ) are sinking to the bottom. It's been a rocky morning on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) bouncing back from an 80-point loss to trade just shy of the 10,850 level at last check. The blue-chip barometer quickly plunged on the open, after the Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence gauge fell to 48.5 in September, hitting its lowest level since February.
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Overall, two thirds of the Dow's 30 components are trading in positive territory, with The Travelers Companies Inc. ( TRV ) and The Home Depot Inc. ( HD ) rising to the top, while Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO ) are sinking to the bottom. The blue-chip barometer quickly plunged on the open, after the Conference Board reported that the consumer confidence gauge fell to 48.5 in September, hitting its lowest level since February. The news overshadowed a rise in the Case-Shiller home price index.
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Overall, two thirds of the Dow's 30 components are trading in positive territory, with The Travelers Companies Inc. ( TRV ) and The Home Depot Inc. ( HD ) rising to the top, while Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO ) are sinking to the bottom. Taking a closer look at this morning's economic data, the prices of single-family homes rose a non-seasonally unadjusted 0.6% in July, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. Unusual Put and Call Activity: On the options front, the iShares Russell 200 Index Fund ( IWM ) exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) is dominating the put side of the coin today, with more than 153,000 of these bearishly oriented contracts changing hands.
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Overall, two thirds of the Dow's 30 components are trading in positive territory, with The Travelers Companies Inc. ( TRV ) and The Home Depot Inc. ( HD ) rising to the top, while Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO ) are sinking to the bottom. The news overshadowed a rise in the Case-Shiller home price index. However, the rise in home prices was overshadowed by a sharp drop in consumer confidence.
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1845.0
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2010-09-24 00:00:00 UTC
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2 Growth Stocks in a Low-Growth Economy
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/2-growth-stocks-low-growth-economy-2010-09-24
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nan
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nan
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After a sharp plunge in 2009, many companies are reporting vastly improved results this year. But until the economy is firmly in growth mode, further profit gains may be hard to come by. But a small minority of companies is in the midst of a profit spurt that shows no signs of a slowdown.
I decided to set about to look for these impressive growth stories, screening for companies that are expected to boost profits by at least +40% in 2011. And to whittle the list down, I eliminated any company worth less than $1.5 billion. They must also sport price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios below 12 times next year's projected profits. Lastly, I eliminated banks and financial services companies from the list as analysts have an especially hard time accurately forecasting future profits in this sector.
The 26 stocks that made cut represent some clear themes. A number of them operate coal mines and are now benefiting from improved pricing for coal that should support robust earnings per share ( EPS ) growth in 2011. In a similar vein, the steel and aluminum producers are also expected to benefit from both higher volumes and better pricing, as I noted in a recent profile of Alcoa ( AA ) . [Read: The Best Rebound Play in the Dow ]
Outside of those sectors, a few other companies caught my attention, as they are likely to benefit from changing conditions in their industries. Let's take a look...
Navistar ( NAV )
This maker of trucks, buses, RV chassis and other big rigs has received a bit of luck. Just as its military division is set to slow down after completing a big contract to supply armored vehicles for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, its commercial division is kicking into high gear. The economic slowdown of the last few years led truck buyers to hold off on purchases, and as a result, the age of the average truck is near an all-time high, according to analysts at Sterne Agee. In addition, dealer inventories are now quite lean and that's setting the stage for an expected surge in truck orders in 2011, which will be bolstered by ever-tightening emissions regulations.
While the economy was in a funk, Navistar looked to cut costs in every corner of the business. The net result: "Depending on volume, (expectation of 240,000 units for 2011), Navistar expects to achieve a higher level of profitability than during past cycles," wrote Sterne Agee analysts in a recent report. In the past five years, Navistar has earned a little more than $4 a share on two occasions. Sterne Agee thinks EPS will exceed $5 a share next year, and that shares should trade for 12 times that profit view, with a price target in the low $60s. That represents roughly +50% upside from current levels.
JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU)
If you've traveled by air recently, you've probably noticed that airplanes are flying with fuller loads these days. It's all about supply and demand. Major carriers took many planes out of service in 2008 and 2009, and passenger volumes have begun to rise since then. After being repeatedly burned in past cycles when the major carriers deployed too many planes -- right at a time when demand slowed -- the whole industry has shown a lot more discipline this time around. It vows to add planes back into the system at a slow pace, making sure that the supply of airline seats remains just below demand levels. And that is enabling the carriers to push through fare increases, which are now roughly +20% higher than a year ago, according to the Airline Transport Association ( ATA ).
While most airline carriers are in the midst of a nice profit rebound, JetBlue seems to be the biggest beneficiary of the new industry economics . The low-cost carrier is likely to see profits double this year and rise another +40% to +50% in 2011 to around $0.60 a share. But the carrier is getting little credit: Shares are right in the middle of the 52-week range and trade for less than 10 times next year's profits.
After years of torrid growth, JetBlue is likely to settle into a moderate +10% growth phase in coming years (sales growth is more robust this year due to very easy comparisons from 2009 when demand for air travel slumped). But that +10% growth should be sufficient to push profit growth at twice that pace. That's because JetBlue's infrastructure investments are largely completed, and any new revenue is more rapidly flowing to the bottom line .
Shares of JetBlue hit $30 back in 2003 when investors first fell in love with the company's instant popularity among consumers. The investor honeymoon ended a while ago, and shares have lost -80% of their value since that peak even as consumer loyalty to the JetBlue brand remains very strong. Back in 2003, the carrier earned $0.64 a share, but profits have been weak ever since as management continually tinkered with pricing. That tinkering is now complete, which is why analysts expect EPS to finally rebound back to that 2003 peak. If JetBlue can deliver on forecasts, investors are likely to return to this success story.
Action to Take --> One of the charms of low P/E stocks is that they are more likely to hold their own if the market slumps anew and investors first look to shed high P/E stocks. And if the market strengthens, economically-sensitive names like JetBlue and Navistar are likely to find much favor among investors seeking a nice combination of value and growth.
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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In a similar vein, the steel and aluminum producers are also expected to benefit from both higher volumes and better pricing, as I noted in a recent profile of Alcoa ( AA ) . Lastly, I eliminated banks and financial services companies from the list as analysts have an especially hard time accurately forecasting future profits in this sector. David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks.
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In a similar vein, the steel and aluminum producers are also expected to benefit from both higher volumes and better pricing, as I noted in a recent profile of Alcoa ( AA ) . A number of them operate coal mines and are now benefiting from improved pricing for coal that should support robust earnings per share ( EPS ) growth in 2011. The net result: "Depending on volume, (expectation of 240,000 units for 2011), Navistar expects to achieve a higher level of profitability than during past cycles," wrote Sterne Agee analysts in a recent report.
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In a similar vein, the steel and aluminum producers are also expected to benefit from both higher volumes and better pricing, as I noted in a recent profile of Alcoa ( AA ) . The net result: "Depending on volume, (expectation of 240,000 units for 2011), Navistar expects to achieve a higher level of profitability than during past cycles," wrote Sterne Agee analysts in a recent report. Sterne Agee thinks EPS will exceed $5 a share next year, and that shares should trade for 12 times that profit view, with a price target in the low $60s.
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In a similar vein, the steel and aluminum producers are also expected to benefit from both higher volumes and better pricing, as I noted in a recent profile of Alcoa ( AA ) . The net result: "Depending on volume, (expectation of 240,000 units for 2011), Navistar expects to achieve a higher level of profitability than during past cycles," wrote Sterne Agee analysts in a recent report. Sterne Agee thinks EPS will exceed $5 a share next year, and that shares should trade for 12 times that profit view, with a price target in the low $60s.
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1846.0
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2010-09-20 00:00:00 UTC
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7 Miserable Mining Stocks to Avoid
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/7-miserable-mining-stocks-avoid-2010-09-20
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nan
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nan
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Gold prices continue to push higher, setting a new all time high. Silver also has set a 30-year high, and precious metals across the board seem to be lifting mining stocks. Right?
Wrong. There are a number of miners that gold prices haven't been able to prop up, as you can see by poor earnings and recent stock prices. What's more, many miners that also dig for conventional metals like aluminum and copper have been brutalized by the economic downturn. As manufacturing has slowed to a crawl, demand for these metals has dried up too.
Here are seven metal and mining stocks investors should avoid no matter how high gold prices go.
ArcelorMittal ( MT )
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT ) is a global steel producer based in Luxembourg. This metal stock operates in 20 countries on four continents, with 47% of its steel produced in Europe and 35% produced in the Americas. 2010 has been very unkind to ArcelorMittal, as the stock has dropped 28% compared to small gains by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, MT has lost 19.1%. Trading at $32.66, MT stock is far below its 52-week high of $49.41. If you haven't already dropped this struggling metal stock, now is the time to do so.
Nucor ( NUE )
Nucor (NYSE: NUE ) is a producer of steel and steel products that operates in three business segments: steel mills, steel products and raw materials. This metal stock is also very active in recycling, and reported the recycling of approximately 13.4 million tons of scrap steel in 2009. Looking past its recycling habits, Nucor's stock has been unsavory for shareholders as of late. Since January, NUE's stock has seen a decline of 17.1%. The past 12 months have been even worse Nucor, as the stock has slid 22.4% in that time. Nucor is trading just above its 52-week low of $35.71 with a current stock price of $38.66.
Sterlite Industries ( SLT )
Another metal stock worth selling is Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ). Located in India, Sterlite works primarily with aluminum, copper, zinc and lead, as well as commercial energy. Its subsidiary deals extensively with zinc metal, cadmium, silver and sulphuric acid. Despite its diversified "product line," Sterlite has seen a decline of 18% in 2010. SLT has not fared well over the past year either, having dropped 5.1% since last September. Having peaked in January with a stock price of $19.91, Sterlite now trades at $14.91.
Kinross Gold (KGC )
Based in Toronto, Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) deals primarily with gold mining. It is also involved in the exploration and acquisition of gold-bearing properties, as well as the extraction and processing of gold-containing ore. While KGC stock is up slightly for 2010, or 0.8%, the metal stock is down a dramatic 18.9% over the past 12 months. Additionally, Kinross has only exceeded earnings estimate one out of the last four quarters. While, the stock may be up slightly on the year, it is not far removed from its 52-week low of $14.84 that it hit in late August.
Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH )
Based in Beijing, Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH ) is involved with bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminum smelting and aluminum fabrication. Times have been tough for ACH lately, as the aluminum producer has watched its stock fade 20.6% since January and 28.6% since last September. Things have been a nightmare for ACH since October 2007, when the stock peaked at $79.58. Since then the metal stock has plummeted 69.1% to its current price of $21.65. A profit margin of -2.5% in its last financial statement is nothing to write home about either.
Alcoa ( AA )
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Alcoa is based in Pittsburgh and operates in 31 countries. This metal stock dropped 30.7% in 2010, compared with the broader markets, which are up slightly. It's tough for shareholders to remember the last good news they received from Alcoa, as the stock has plummeted 73.2% since reaching a peak of over $47 in July 2007. If you haven't dumped this stock already, do so now.
Yamana Gold ( AUY )
Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY ) is a Canadian-based gold producer engaged in the exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation of gold. Yamana operates primarily in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico. In 2010, this gold producer's stock dropped 4.8% compared to small gains by the broader markets. More telling is the fact that the stock has dropped 21.9% since the beginning of December 2009. Then, the stock was trading at $14.07. Currently, Yamana Gold stock price is $10.83. Additionally, AUY has missed four consecutive earnings estimates, making it a gold stock worth selling.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Located in India, Sterlite works primarily with aluminum, copper, zinc and lead, as well as commercial energy. It's tough for shareholders to remember the last good news they received from Alcoa, as the stock has plummeted 73.2% since reaching a peak of over $47 in July 2007.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Sterlite Industries ( SLT ) Another metal stock worth selling is Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ). Kinross Gold (KGC ) Based in Toronto, Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) deals primarily with gold mining.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Sterlite Industries ( SLT ) Another metal stock worth selling is Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ). While KGC stock is up slightly for 2010, or 0.8%, the metal stock is down a dramatic 18.9% over the past 12 months.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. There are a number of miners that gold prices haven't been able to prop up, as you can see by poor earnings and recent stock prices. Having peaked in January with a stock price of $19.91, Sterlite now trades at $14.91.
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1847.0
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2010-09-20 00:00:00 UTC
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7 Miserable Mining Stocks to Avoid
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/7-miserable-mining-stocks-avoid-2010-09-20-0
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nan
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nan
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Gold prices continue to push higher, setting a new all time high. Silver also has set a 30-year high, and precious metals across the board seem to be lifting mining stocks. Right?
Wrong. There are a number of miners that gold prices haven't been able to prop up, as you can see by poor earnings and recent stock prices. What's more, many miners that also dig for conventional metals like aluminum and copper have been brutalized by the economic downturn. As manufacturing has slowed to a crawl, demand for these metals has dried up too.
Here are seven metal and mining stocks investors should avoid no matter how high gold prices go.
ArcelorMittal ( MT )
ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT ) is a global steel producer based in Luxembourg. This metal stock operates in 20 countries on four continents, with 47% of its steel produced in Europe and 35% produced in the Americas. 2010 has been very unkind to ArcelorMittal, as the stock has dropped 28% compared to small gains by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500. Over the past 12 months, MT has lost 19.1%. Trading at $32.66, MT stock is far below its 52-week high of $49.41. If you haven't already dropped this struggling metal stock, now is the time to do so.
Nucor ( NUE )
Nucor (NYSE: NUE ) is a producer of steel and steel products that operates in three business segments: steel mills, steel products and raw materials. This metal stock is also very active in recycling, and reported the recycling of approximately 13.4 million tons of scrap steel in 2009. Looking past its recycling habits, Nucor's stock has been unsavory for shareholders as of late. Since January, NUE's stock has seen a decline of 17.1%. The past 12 months have been even worse Nucor, as the stock has slid 22.4% in that time. Nucor is trading just above its 52-week low of $35.71 with a current stock price of $38.66.
Sterlite Industries ( SLT )
Another metal stock worth selling is Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ). Located in India, Sterlite works primarily with aluminum, copper, zinc and lead, as well as commercial energy. Its subsidiary deals extensively with zinc metal, cadmium, silver and sulphuric acid. Despite its diversified "product line," Sterlite has seen a decline of 18% in 2010. SLT has not fared well over the past year either, having dropped 5.1% since last September. Having peaked in January with a stock price of $19.91, Sterlite now trades at $14.91.
Kinross Gold (KGC )
Based in Toronto, Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) deals primarily with gold mining. It is also involved in the exploration and acquisition of gold-bearing properties, as well as the extraction and processing of gold-containing ore. While KGC stock is up slightly for 2010, or 0.8%, the metal stock is down a dramatic 18.9% over the past 12 months. Additionally, Kinross has only exceeded earnings estimate one out of the last four quarters. While, the stock may be up slightly on the year, it is not far removed from its 52-week low of $14.84 that it hit in late August.
Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH )
Based in Beijing, Aluminum Corp. of China (NYSE: ACH ) is involved with bauxite mining, alumina refining, primary aluminum smelting and aluminum fabrication. Times have been tough for ACH lately, as the aluminum producer has watched its stock fade 20.6% since January and 28.6% since last September. Things have been a nightmare for ACH since October 2007, when the stock peaked at $79.58. Since then the metal stock has plummeted 69.1% to its current price of $21.65. A profit margin of -2.5% in its last financial statement is nothing to write home about either.
Alcoa ( AA )
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Alcoa is based in Pittsburgh and operates in 31 countries. This metal stock dropped 30.7% in 2010, compared with the broader markets, which are up slightly. It's tough for shareholders to remember the last good news they received from Alcoa, as the stock has plummeted 73.2% since reaching a peak of over $47 in July 2007. If you haven't dumped this stock already, do so now.
Yamana Gold (AUY)
Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY ) is a Canadian-based gold producer engaged in the exploration, extraction, processing and reclamation of gold. Yamana operates primarily in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico. In 2010, this gold producer's stock dropped 4.8% compared to small gains by the broader markets. More telling is the fact that the stock has dropped 21.9% since the beginning of December 2009. Then, the stock was trading at $14.07. Currently, Yamana Gold stock price is $10.83. Additionally, AUY has missed four consecutive earnings estimates, making it a gold stock worth selling.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Located in India, Sterlite works primarily with aluminum, copper, zinc and lead, as well as commercial energy. It's tough for shareholders to remember the last good news they received from Alcoa, as the stock has plummeted 73.2% since reaching a peak of over $47 in July 2007.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Sterlite Industries ( SLT ) Another metal stock worth selling is Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ). Kinross Gold (KGC ) Based in Toronto, Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) deals primarily with gold mining.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. Sterlite Industries ( SLT ) Another metal stock worth selling is Sterlite Industries (NYSE: SLT ). While KGC stock is up slightly for 2010, or 0.8%, the metal stock is down a dramatic 18.9% over the past 12 months.
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Alcoa ( AA ) Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is an aluminum producer whose products are used in the production of aircraft, automobiles, commercial transportation, packaging, construction, defense and industrial applications. There are a number of miners that gold prices haven't been able to prop up, as you can see by poor earnings and recent stock prices. Having peaked in January with a stock price of $19.91, Sterlite now trades at $14.91.
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1848.0
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2010-09-20 00:00:00 UTC
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The Best Rebound Play in the Dow
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-rebound-play-dow-2010-09-20
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nan
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nan
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September has been a wonderful month for stocks. The S&P 500 Index , for example, has risen in 10 of the past 13 sessions, rebounding to levels seen last May, before the bears took the reins. Shares are rising on expectations that we're increasingly likely to avoid a double-dip recession, and with a little momentum on the jobs front (and eventually the housing front), animal spirits could conspire to help push economic growth rates back up to respectable levels by the second half of next year or 2012. And if history is any guide, that economic strength could feed on itself, and set the stage for even more robust growth in 2013 and 2014.
Of course, serious problems remain and Washington will have to find a way to truly lead rather than follow if it is to restore confidence. But there are simply too many positives to ignore, including: cash-rich balance sheets, still-solid profit margins, newly-expanding trade opportunities in Latin America and Asia thanks to growth in key countries in those regions, and with a little luck and finesse, a slightly weaker dollar that could materially boost U.S. exports.
In that context, investors need to make sure they have exposure to companies that stand to benefit from rising economic fortunes in developed and emerging markets. Yet many blue chips have moved up off of their lows and already discount an eventually brightening outlook. But one Dow component, although struggling right now and trading on the cheap, should represent massive upside once business improves. I'm talking about Alcoa ( AA ) , the world's largest aluminum producer. It's much reviled, but wheezing back to life.
My colleague Paul Rolfes recently laid out a logical bear case for Alcoa. [See: This Stock Could Disappear from the Dow ] And he's right. The company's dividend is paltry, and most analysts rate the stock as a "hold." But it's important to know that analysts rate stocks on current operating trends, and have a lousy track record of looking out a year or two. Even when they turn bullish and raise their rating, they only boost their price target by a small amount, and then keep raising it again and again. That's how I believe Alcoa will play out, either later this year or in the first half of 2011. Here's why…
Darkest before the dawn
Massive aluminum smelters cost huge sums of money to build and operate. So when demand slumps, those heavy costs can eat up any potential profit. Alcoa's 2009 results were nothing short of dismal. Sales fell -31% and operating margins, which had hit 16% just two years earlier, fell to -8%. Since then, management has had to cut costs wherever possible (37,000 jobs have been shed since 2008) while awaiting a rebound in sales. That process has just begun.
Alcoa lost nearly $400 million last December and lost another $100 million in the March, 2010 quarter, but was able to finally move back into the black in June, generating operating profits of about $230 million. The volume of aluminum produced rose +4% sequentially. Business still stinks, but less so than before.
More than likely, results will remain subpar (relative to historical peaks) for at least another year or two. But my favorite investor maxim clearly applies here: "The market always looks ahead." Alcoa's stock is now trading on anticipated 2011 results, but come this winter, they will start to trade on anticipated 2012 results.
And by 2012, Alcoa should see a solid turn in two key metrics. Demand for aluminum should rebound, thanks in part to ever-rising content of aluminum in autos and planes. And the spot prices for aluminum should also start to bounce back from recent lows. That combination should help revenue rise at least +10% in 2012, and since this is such a high fixed-cost business, profits should rebound at a far better pace.
On Alcoa's most recent conference call, Chief Financial Officer Charles McLane noted that costs are likely to remain in check, even as demand rebounds. "We are not only holding head count levels, but are also driving restructuring this quarter that will result in further reductions." The company's labor costs should remain firmly in check for several years to come as the United Steelworkers Union agreed to major concessions in its most recent multi-year contract.
China is the swing factor for Alcoa. Chinese aluminum production surged in 2008, creating a global glut right at a time when demand started to crater. The Chinese government has since decided to cut back production on this energy-intensive product. (Alcoa's energy costs are the lowest in the business, thanks to a building spree in the last decade that placed new factories where energy is cheap and reliable, such as Iceland, Trinidad & Tobago and several locations that have abundant hydro-electric power).
Chinese aluminum factories have started to throttle back output. The surplus of Chinese aluminum available for the spot market fell from 400,000 tons in March to 200,000 tons in June, and has apparently fallen further since then. Alcoa's management notes that more than 1 million tons of production has been taken off-line in China in the third quarter.
Action to Take --> Alcoa kicks off earnings season in about three weeks. At that time, management is expected to talk about typical seasonal weakness seen every fall, but management's cost-cutting efforts, coupled with a newly-restrained China, could be the real focus of the conference call. If so, this stock may finally start to get up off the mat.
Coming up with a future profit target for Alcoa is a bit tricky. The company typically earned $1.50 to $2 a share in normal years, and EPS exceeded $3 during an industry boom in 2007. There's no reason to expect boom conditions to return, but "normal" results could be seen within a few years. Yet Alcoa has taken so many costs out of the business, that EPS should be nicely higher on "normal revenue," perhaps in the $2.25 to $2.50 range.
When the global economy -- and Alcoa -- is back on its feet, shares could easily trade up to 10 times profits, or $22 to $25. That's a double from current levels, though still below the $30 to $40 range seen in 2006 and 2008. There are other Dow components that will also solidly benefit from an improving global economy, but none are as beaten down as this one.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and a Managing Editor at TheStreet.com. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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I'm talking about Alcoa ( AA ) , the world's largest aluminum producer. But there are simply too many positives to ignore, including: cash-rich balance sheets, still-solid profit margins, newly-expanding trade opportunities in Latin America and Asia thanks to growth in key countries in those regions, and with a little luck and finesse, a slightly weaker dollar that could materially boost U.S. exports. On Alcoa's most recent conference call, Chief Financial Officer Charles McLane noted that costs are likely to remain in check, even as demand rebounds.
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I'm talking about Alcoa ( AA ) , the world's largest aluminum producer. The surplus of Chinese aluminum available for the spot market fell from 400,000 tons in March to 200,000 tons in June, and has apparently fallen further since then. Read More... Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
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I'm talking about Alcoa ( AA ) , the world's largest aluminum producer. Shares are rising on expectations that we're increasingly likely to avoid a double-dip recession, and with a little momentum on the jobs front (and eventually the housing front), animal spirits could conspire to help push economic growth rates back up to respectable levels by the second half of next year or 2012. Alcoa lost nearly $400 million last December and lost another $100 million in the March, 2010 quarter, but was able to finally move back into the black in June, generating operating profits of about $230 million.
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I'm talking about Alcoa ( AA ) , the world's largest aluminum producer. And the spot prices for aluminum should also start to bounce back from recent lows. On Alcoa's most recent conference call, Chief Financial Officer Charles McLane noted that costs are likely to remain in check, even as demand rebounds.
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1849.0
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2010-09-02 00:00:00 UTC
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Investors May Get Their Chance to Go Long
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/investors-may-get-their-chance-go-long-2010-09-02
|
nan
|
nan
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The summer may be ending, but the volatility continued yesterday, as stocks extended the big gains made on Wednesday. And a late afternoon rally took prices to the high of the day almost at the final bell.
Economic reports seemed to be the reason for the rally. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 28 came in at 472,000 versus an expected 475,000, and continuing claims fell to 4.46 million from 4.48 million. Productivity in Q2 fell 1.8%, which is close to the prediction of 1.7%, and unit labor costs increased 1.1% as expected. But pending home sales resulted in a surprise - up 5.2% for the month where analysts had expected no change. Factory orders for July increased 0.1% versus an expected 0.3%.
Retail stocks enjoyed a strong session, climbing 2.2% following a report of strong back-to-school sales for August. Consumer discretionary stocks gained 1.8%, and industrials were up 1.2%.
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) led the 30 Dow stocks, up 2.85%, followed by The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ), up 2.58%, and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ), up 2.1%.
The euro rose slightly versus the dollar, and Treasuries fell again, bringing the 10-year note to a yield of 2.627%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 51 points, closing at 10,320, the S&P 500 rose 10 points, closing at 1,090, and the Nasdaq gained 23 points at 2,200.
The NYSE traded 960 million shares with advancers ahead of decliners by 2.5-to-1. On the Nasdaq, advancers were ahead by 1.7-to-1 on volume of 463 million shares.
Crude oil for October delivery rose $1.11 to $75.02 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) closed at $53.55, up 44 cents.
September gold gained $5.20, closing at $1,251.50 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) gained 2.15 points, closing at 186.41.
What the Markets Are Saying
In just two days stocks have miraculously revived and vaulted to regain almost half of the losses of the entire month of August. And the S&P 500 sprang from the support zone at 1,040 to 1,055 following daily reversals and buy signals from our in-house indicator, the Collins-Bollinger Reversal (CBR).
Thursday's Daily Market Outlook gave several levels of the S&P as targets for the reversal: Fibonacci numbers: 50% = 1,084, 61.8%=1,095, and then the 200-day moving average at 1,115.
And, of course, there is the psychological resistance line at 1,100, which may turn out to be the first stop for this rally. Not only is 1,100 touted by the press as a barrier, but on eight days this year it has halted short-term rallies, and in every case the failure to penetrate 1,100 led to a reversal and a test of support back to the 1,040 - 1,055 support zone. This is not solid enough evidence to "bet the farm" on a reversal down from 1,100, but we should closely observe the tape action of the S&P 500 and be alert to the possibility of a reversal if it nears that mark.
Today is Friday, and that means a review of the sentiment indicators. Last week, the AAII bulls were at the lowest percent (20.74%) since July 7 at S&P 1,028. And July 7 marked the beginning of a five-week rally that took the S&P 500 to the top at 1,129 on Aug. 9.
This week another of the important sentiment indicators, the Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment, showed a drop of bulls for the third consecutive week. They were 29.4% versus 33.3% a week ago, and 41.7% at the start of August. Both the AAII and the Investors Intelligence reports are reverse indicators - a drop in sentiment for both is bullish for the markets. And the markets appropriately responded.
A very fine technician, Sam Turner, of RiverFront Investment Group, produced a study that appears to indicate that if the current rally follows the course of the two major reversals this year, the slope of the resulting uptrends is important. He concludes that we should see a multi-week rally and the now familiar resistance at 1,130 should again come into play by the end of September.
Well, it's a long time between now and the end of September, but we should keep the target in mind. Between now and 1,130 there could be many opportunities to pick up long positions since the two prior bounces from 1,040 had many detours - one of which took us not to 1,040, but to the low of the year at 1,011.
We will not be publishing the Daily Market Outlook on Monday, but next week I will continue our discussion of forming a clearly defined trading plan. Have a happy and safe holiday.
Click here for today's Trade of the Day.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening: Campbell Soup.
Economic reports due: employment situation (the consensus expects -90,000 for non-farm payrolls, and 9.6% for the unemployment rate), and ISM non-manufacturing index (the consensus expects 53).
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
The Best & Worst Cheap Stocks to Own Now -Includes the three small caps under $10 a share that could double your money by year-end and the 26 time bombs to avoid like the plague. Plus, the five red flags for buying cheap stocks. Get your FREE report here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) led the 30 Dow stocks, up 2.85%, followed by The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ), up 2.58%, and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ), up 2.1%. Last week, the AAII bulls were at the lowest percent (20.74%) since July 7 at S&P 1,028. Both the AAII and the Investors Intelligence reports are reverse indicators - a drop in sentiment for both is bullish for the markets.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) led the 30 Dow stocks, up 2.85%, followed by The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ), up 2.58%, and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ), up 2.1%. Last week, the AAII bulls were at the lowest percent (20.74%) since July 7 at S&P 1,028. Both the AAII and the Investors Intelligence reports are reverse indicators - a drop in sentiment for both is bullish for the markets.
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Both the AAII and the Investors Intelligence reports are reverse indicators - a drop in sentiment for both is bullish for the markets. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) led the 30 Dow stocks, up 2.85%, followed by The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ), up 2.58%, and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ), up 2.1%. Last week, the AAII bulls were at the lowest percent (20.74%) since July 7 at S&P 1,028.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) led the 30 Dow stocks, up 2.85%, followed by The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD ), up 2.58%, and The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ), up 2.1%. Last week, the AAII bulls were at the lowest percent (20.74%) since July 7 at S&P 1,028. Both the AAII and the Investors Intelligence reports are reverse indicators - a drop in sentiment for both is bullish for the markets.
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1850.0
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2010-08-16 00:00:00 UTC
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This Stock Could Disappear from the Dow
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-could-disappear-dow-2010-08-16
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nan
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nan
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't considered the most accurate reflection of the market's overall performance, but few can argue against the fact that it is the most widely recognized and highly symbolic representation of the state of American stocks.
Outside of the large-cap, old-line American companies among the Dow Jones Industrials, there are more than 10,000 publicly traded stocks from which investors can pick and choose. But Dow component companies carry the panache of selling a "blue-chip" stock investors might regard as part of an elite grouping worthy of their money.
Since Charles Dow introduced his 12-stock industrial index in 1896 to accompany The Wall Street Journal's transportation index, about four-dozen adjustments have been made, including the expansion to a roster of 30 in 1928. Most of the original dozen have gone the way of the buggy whip and are out of business, or morphed into another direction in the past 114 years. One familiar name remains: General Electric ( GE ) -- however, the conglomerate was yanked twice around the beginning of the 20th century, only to return.
It has been more than a year since the Dow was rejiggered, when Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) and Travelers Cos. ( TRV ) replaced the bankrupt old General Motors and Citigroup ( C ) . There's no set pattern for reviews of the composition of this price-weighted index, but maybe it's time for the committee members appointed in March to consider jettisoning the weakest links and bringing in some fresh blood.
In the meantime, it's worthwhile to speculate about which lightweights among the heavyweights could be jettisoned in the next rebalancing . Such a focus could provide clues as to which stocks to avoid -- or short -- and which to hold for the long haul.
Almost from its launch, the Dow has contained stocks of companies not purely "industry" in a traditional smokestack sense. So which stocks are most vulnerable to be dethroned from this small subset of the U.S. stock market?
What does the stock of American Express ( AXP ) offer to investors that a Visa ( V ) or MasterCard ( MA ) doesn't? As IBM ( IBM ) transitions from selling and servicing big iron to going big on business services, and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) dawdles along in the slow lane of technology's innovation highway, is it time to substitute a Nasdaq-traded Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) ?
Although GM is gone, should the American auto industry be ignored, considering the renaissance of Ford Motor ( F ) ? Or, when the new GM pulls the trigger on its expected IPO , will it deserve to be called a blue-chip once again?
If the keepers of the Dow do decide to make changes, there is one stock I think is especially in danger of being tossed.
The most vulnerable stock on the Dow
Perhaps the most vulnerable member is Alcoa ( AA ) . Shares peaked just north of $40 back in 1999, there hasn't been a stock split since 2000, and it hasn't approached that $40 level since 2007. Admittedly, 2010 second-quarter results, which included a $136 million profit on stronger-than-anticipated +22% revenue growth, gave rise to a more bullish outlook, especially when it comes to predictions of growth in global demand for its metals. Still, 10 of First Call/Thomson Financial's 19 analysts rated the stock a "hold" or lower, with one saying it's time to sell.
Alcoa, part of the Dow since 1959, is one of those old standbys, a favorite for retirees to hold on to and pass to the kids. But lately, the stagnant stock price since the 2008 meltdown and a measly dividend of 12 cents a year combined with fiscal 2010 earnings estimated at less than 50 cents a share should serve as a wake-up call. Aggressive investors might find better places to park their cash as stocks continue to fight their way out of the doldrums.
A company such as Alcoa is highly dependent upon the economic recovery, not just in the U.S., but worldwide. So far, with the recent gloomy economic forecasts, it could take some time before investors again take a shine to Alcoa's shares.
If there's a weak link in the Dow's representation of the overall stock market, Alcoa comes closest. It's an old-line manufacturer struggling to recapture the spirit of innovation for which it was once known. Erase this one and pencil in other names such as Apple or Google, which might better portray what is American "industry" of the 21st century.
InvestingAnswers
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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As IBM ( IBM ) transitions from selling and servicing big iron to going big on business services, and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) dawdles along in the slow lane of technology's innovation highway, is it time to substitute a Nasdaq-traded Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) ? The most vulnerable stock on the Dow Perhaps the most vulnerable member is Alcoa ( AA ) . The Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't considered the most accurate reflection of the market's overall performance, but few can argue against the fact that it is the most widely recognized and highly symbolic representation of the state of American stocks.
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As IBM ( IBM ) transitions from selling and servicing big iron to going big on business services, and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) dawdles along in the slow lane of technology's innovation highway, is it time to substitute a Nasdaq-traded Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) ? The most vulnerable stock on the Dow Perhaps the most vulnerable member is Alcoa ( AA ) . Outside of the large-cap, old-line American companies among the Dow Jones Industrials, there are more than 10,000 publicly traded stocks from which investors can pick and choose.
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As IBM ( IBM ) transitions from selling and servicing big iron to going big on business services, and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) dawdles along in the slow lane of technology's innovation highway, is it time to substitute a Nasdaq-traded Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) ? The most vulnerable stock on the Dow Perhaps the most vulnerable member is Alcoa ( AA ) . The Dow Jones Industrial Average isn't considered the most accurate reflection of the market's overall performance, but few can argue against the fact that it is the most widely recognized and highly symbolic representation of the state of American stocks.
|
As IBM ( IBM ) transitions from selling and servicing big iron to going big on business services, and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) dawdles along in the slow lane of technology's innovation highway, is it time to substitute a Nasdaq-traded Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) ? The most vulnerable stock on the Dow Perhaps the most vulnerable member is Alcoa ( AA ) . Outside of the large-cap, old-line American companies among the Dow Jones Industrials, there are more than 10,000 publicly traded stocks from which investors can pick and choose.
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1851.0
|
2010-08-12 00:00:00 UTC
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Can Investors Turn It Around?
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-investors-turn-it-around-2010-08-12
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nan
|
nan
|
A broad sell-off hit the world markets yesterday, leaving investors wondering about the viability of a financial recovery. From Washington, D.C., to London and Beijing, banking officials warned of the frailty of the recovery while suspicions are growing that the Federal Reserve has used up most of its ability to respond to further economic problems.
Selling was widespread with 499 of the S&P's 500 stocks ending lower. Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M ) was the only one to show a gain following a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report and an optimistic forecast for the year.
Blue chips suffered their worst day of the year with all 30 of the Dow Industrials at a loss. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO ) fell more than 8% in after-hours trading after reporting disappointing earnings.
Even the Transportation Index fell 4.27%, exceeding the percentage drop in the Industrial Average by over 2%.
The euro dropped 2.3% versus the greenback. And the 10-year Treasury notes were in demand dropping the yield to a four-month low of 2.69%.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 265 points to 10,379, the S&P 500 fell 32 points to 1,089, and the Nasdaq plunged 69 points to 22,209.
The NYSE traded 1.2 billion shares with decliners over advancers by more than 5-to-1. The Nasdaq traded 676 million shares and decliners were ahead by over 8-to-1.
Crude oil for September delivery fell $2.23 to $78.02, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) lost $1.65, closing at $53.76.
December gold rose $1.20 to $1,199.20 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) fell 4.55 points to 170.72.
What the Markets Are Saying
Yesterday every index suffered the same defeat as confidence in the Fed and foreign banks waned and stockholders headed for the exits. So in just one day a trap was sprung, and in it investors found a very tired bull bellowing in frustration.
The Dow Industrials fell sharply closing below both the 20- and 200-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 crushed its 200-day moving average landing just 2 points above its 50-day moving average, now at 1,087. But the Nasdaq's demise was the worst of all as it gapped through both its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, closing at close to its low of the day and down over 3%.
The real surprise was the weakness of the Transportation Index, which fell over 4%. The transports are considered a leading indicator because the companies in the index generally pick up business before a recovery. A crushing day like yesterday will be a shock to many analysts who concluded in July that the transports were telling us that the recession was over.
As for the broad-based S&P 500, the index closed just above its initial support at 1,085 to 1,087. Its next support is at the July 20 low of 1,057.
The worst technical problem for the bulls following yesterday's rout is that the overall chart pattern has taken on the image of a huge developing head-and-shoulders formation with the recent high of the S&P 500 at 1,130 as the right shoulder. I personally doubt that this ominous pattern will develop, but many will no doubt be talking about it for days - and that alone could put more selling pressure on the market.
At the very least, this week's action confirms that the S&P 500's tops at 1,131 and 1,130 are now confirmed as a double-top. That means that the next firm area of support is at the triple low of 1,060. And that translates into around 9,800 for the Dow - 580 points or more below yesterday's close.
We have listened and Mr. Market has made it clear that new highs will not be made soon - the current path of least resistance is down.
I'll forego the current discussion of the Dow Theory since today's analysis was of more immediate interest, and I'll take up the very appropriate subject of a bear market's characteristics on Friday.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Accretive Health, Briggs & Stratton, Brinker, Broadridge Financial, Cache, China Agritech, Elizabeth Arden, Estee Lauder, Gildan Activewear, Kohl's, O'Charley's, Perrigo, Royal Gold, Sara Lee, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, SmartHeat, Textainer Group, Tim Hortons and Wendy's.
Earnings to be reported during trading hours include: BOFI Holding.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: Alimera Sciences, American Dairy, Autodesk, Bally Technologies, Bottomline Technologies, DeVry, Dionex, Flotek Industries, Geo Group, Medidata Solutions, Nordstrom, Nvidia, Red Robin Gourmet, ShoreTel, and Spreadtrum Communications.
Economic reports due: jobless claims (the consensus expects 460,000), import and export prices, EIA natural gas report, Fed balance sheet and money supply.
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
The Secret to Money-Doubling Trades They Don't Want You to Know- Professional traders Nick Atkeson and Andrew Houghton reveal their proven, time-tested strategy to finding money-doubling trades in a new report. It's the trading "secret" so effective they were banned from sharing it with you. Download your FREE copy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. From Washington, D.C., to London and Beijing, banking officials warned of the frailty of the recovery while suspicions are growing that the Federal Reserve has used up most of its ability to respond to further economic problems. The worst technical problem for the bulls following yesterday's rout is that the overall chart pattern has taken on the image of a huge developing head-and-shoulders formation with the recent high of the S&P 500 at 1,130 as the right shoulder.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) fell 4.55 points to 170.72.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 265 points to 10,379, the S&P 500 fell 32 points to 1,089, and the Nasdaq plunged 69 points to 22,209. The Dow Industrials fell sharply closing below both the 20- and 200-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 crushed its 200-day moving average landing just 2 points above its 50-day moving average, now at 1,087.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Even the Transportation Index fell 4.27%, exceeding the percentage drop in the Industrial Average by over 2%. Its next support is at the July 20 low of 1,057.
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1852.0
|
2010-08-12 00:00:00 UTC
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Can Investors Turn It Around?
|
AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/can-investors-turn-it-around-2010-08-12-0
|
nan
|
nan
|
A broad sell-off hit the world markets yesterday, leaving investors wondering about the viability of a financial recovery. From Washington, D.C., to London and Beijing, banking officials warned of the frailty of the recovery while suspicions are growing that the Federal Reserve has used up most of its ability to respond to further economic problems.
Selling was widespread with 499 of the S&P's 500 stocks ending lower. Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M ) was the only one to show a gain following a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report and an optimistic forecast for the year.
Blue chips suffered their worst day of the year with all 30 of the Dow Industrials at a loss. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO ) fell more than 8% in after-hours trading after reporting disappointing earnings.
Even the Transportation Index fell 4.27%, exceeding the percentage drop in the Industrial Average by over 2%.
The euro dropped 2.3% versus the greenback. And the 10-year Treasury notes were in demand dropping the yield to a four-month low of 2.69%.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 265 points to 10,379, the S&P 500 fell 32 points to 1,089, and the Nasdaq plunged 69 points to 22,209.
The NYSE traded 1.2 billion shares with decliners over advancers by more than 5-to-1. The Nasdaq traded 676 million shares and decliners were ahead by over 8-to-1.
Crude oil for September delivery fell $2.23 to $78.02, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) lost $1.65, closing at $53.76.
December gold rose $1.20 to $1,199.20 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) fell 4.55 points to 170.72.
What the Markets Are Saying
Yesterday every index suffered the same defeat as confidence in the Fed and foreign banks waned and stockholders headed for the exits. So in just one day a trap was sprung, and in it investors found a very tired bull bellowing in frustration.
The Dow Industrials fell sharply closing below both the 20- and 200-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 crushed its 200-day moving average landing just 2 points above its 50-day moving average, now at 1,087. But the Nasdaq's demise was the worst of all as it gapped through both its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, closing at close to its low of the day and down over 3%.
The real surprise was the weakness of the Transportation Index, which fell over 4%. The transports are considered a leading indicator because the companies in the index generally pick up business before a recovery. A crushing day like yesterday will be a shock to many analysts who concluded in July that the transports were telling us that the recession was over.
As for the broad-based S&P 500, the index closed just above its initial support at 1,085 to 1,087. Its next support is at the July 20 low of 1,057.
The worst technical problem for the bulls following yesterday's rout is that the overall chart pattern has taken on the image of a huge developing head-and-shoulders formation with the recent high of the S&P 500 at 1,130 as the right shoulder. I personally doubt that this ominous pattern will develop, but many will no doubt be talking about it for days - and that alone could put more selling pressure on the market.
At the very least, this week's action confirms that the S&P 500′s tops at 1,131 and 1,130 are now confirmed as a double-top. That means that the next firm area of support is at the triple low of 1,060. And that translates into around 9,800 for the Dow - 580 points or more below yesterday's close.
We have listened and Mr. Market has made it clear that new highs will not be made soon - the current path of least resistance is down.
I'll forego the current discussion of the Dow Theory since today's analysis was of more immediate interest, and I'll take up the very appropriate subject of a bear market's characteristics on Friday.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Accretive Health, Briggs & Stratton, Brinker, Broadridge Financial, Cache, China Agritech, Elizabeth Arden, Estee Lauder, Gildan Activewear, Kohl's, O'Charley's, Perrigo, Royal Gold, Sara Lee, Simcere Pharmaceutical Group, SmartHeat, Textainer Group, Tim Hortons and Wendy's.
Earnings to be reported during trading hours include: BOFI Holding.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: Alimera Sciences, American Dairy, Autodesk, Bally Technologies, Bottomline Technologies, DeVry, Dionex, Flotek Industries, Geo Group, Medidata Solutions, Nordstrom, Nvidia, Red Robin Gourmet, ShoreTel, and Spreadtrum Communications.
Economic reports due: jobless claims (the consensus expects 460,000), import and export prices, EIA natural gas report, Fed balance sheet and money supply.
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
The Secret to Money-Doubling Trades They Don't Want You to Know- Professional traders Nick Atkeson and Andrew Houghton reveal their proven, time-tested strategy to finding money-doubling trades in a new report. It's the trading "secret" so effective they were banned from sharing it with you. Download your FREE copy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. From Washington, D.C., to London and Beijing, banking officials warned of the frailty of the recovery while suspicions are growing that the Federal Reserve has used up most of its ability to respond to further economic problems. The worst technical problem for the bulls following yesterday's rout is that the overall chart pattern has taken on the image of a huge developing head-and-shoulders formation with the recent high of the S&P 500 at 1,130 as the right shoulder.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) fell 4.55 points to 170.72.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen 265 points to 10,379, the S&P 500 fell 32 points to 1,089, and the Nasdaq plunged 69 points to 22,209. The Dow Industrials fell sharply closing below both the 20- and 200-day moving averages, and the S&P 500 crushed its 200-day moving average landing just 2 points above its 50-day moving average, now at 1,087.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ), The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA ) and Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ) fell 6.1%, 4.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Even the Transportation Index fell 4.27%, exceeding the percentage drop in the Industrial Average by over 2%. Its next support is at the July 20 low of 1,057.
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1853.0
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2010-08-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Trading Signals Say ‘Sell’
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trading-signals-say-sell-2010-08-11-0
|
nan
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nan
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The major stock indices spent all of Tuesday in negative territory following poor economic news and a policy announcement after the FOMC meeting.
Stocks opened down in response to lower foreign markets. But instead of rebounding in anticipation of a favorable Fed announcement, prices headed lower on news that Q2 non-farm productivity made a surprising 0.9% decline. And following that, wholesale inventories had a weaker-than-expected 0.1% increase.
By the time the Fed announcement came, the Dow was off about 125 points. However, stocks immediately rallied, taking back half of the losses on news that interest rates would remain at 0% to 0.25%, and that the current conditions warranted low levels of the federal funds rate for the near future.
In addition to keeping rates unchanged, the Fed chiefs plan to reinvest principal payments for agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in Treasuries. It is hoped that this will convince investors that the Fed could move closer to implementing quantitative easing measures to support economic growth and price stability.
As the impact of the announcements took hold, the markets fell from the initial round of buying, rose, and then just before the close, fell again. The feeling among floor traders seemed to be that the Fed has "shot their last cannons and they don't have much left. What they've done has to work because they don't have a whole lot left to do" (Wall Street Journal).
Despite the lower averages, defense-oriented stocks gained and telecom was up 0.4%.
But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC ) was the Dow's worst performer, off 4%. And other chip stocks fell as well: Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD ) tumbled 8%, and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU ) fell 3.6%.
Treasuries were in demand with a new three-year note auction yielding 0.844%, the lowest three-year note auction on record. The U.S. dollar held onto a small gain after being much higher in the morning.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 55 points to 10,644, the S&P 500 was down 7 points at 1,121, and the Nasdaq lost 29 points to 2,277.
The NYSE traded 980 million shares with decliners ahead of advancers by more than 2.5-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 595 million shares with decliners ahead by over 3.5-to-1.
Crude oil for September delivery was down $1.23 to $80.25 a barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) fell 46 cents to $55.41.
Concerns over an economic recovery resulted in December gold rising $6.10 to $1,208.70 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) closed at 175.27, off 0.15 points.
What the Markets Are Saying
After two attempts to rush through the resistance at S&P 1,130, stocks pulled back again following Monday's session that had all of the earmarks of a breakout-waiting-to-happen. Instead, fear gripped the market in the morning, then relief over the Fed's decision to leave rates alone rallied stocks which was quickly followed by a final sell-off over concerns that the Fed might not be able to handle a further economic decline.
Technically the bulls appear to have "snatched defeat from the hands of victory" following days of pushing against a major resistance zone after breaking above their 200-day moving averages. Now the only solace that they have is that the major indices managed to close just above their respective 200-day moving averages.
And yesterday's performance presents the bulls with something else to think about: Every major internal indicator on our list has fallen from overbought and yesterday issued a sell signal. Chief among the most watched indicators is Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, (MACD) , which is now "below the line," while both the slow and fast stochastic have flashed a strong "sell."
Granted, these are trading signals. But the timing for such a negative performance just couldn't be worse as traders, investors and portfolio managers want nothing more than to head to their favorite vacation spot following the big Fed announcement.
So, as the summer heat wears on, the market is looking more and more like another slide to the next major support levels at Dow 10,000, S&P 1,050, and Nasdaq 2,150 is in the cards.
Dow Theory Lesson: Bull Market
We've been studying the Dow Theory this week, and now we come to Dow's interpretation of the major market trends and their composition. Today we study the "bull market," which can be divided into three phases.
The first is the "accumulation" phase, which occurs when professional and savvy investors sense that even though business is depressed, it is now time to buy. These investors are willing to buy any and all shares from those who have panicked and are willing to sell at any price just to relieve their stress. Financial reports are usually at their worst at this time, and the public is disgusted with stocks and never want to invest in them again.
The bottom has now been made and upside volume begins to pick up, ushering in the second phase of "steady advance" when an improved tone of business and a rising trend of corporate earnings are first noticed. Technically oriented investors recognize the change in trend and enter the market.
The final phase is the "blow-off" phase when stocks are the main subject at every cocktail party, and your barber and cab driver can't wait to give you their latest tip. Volume is at its peak, most mid-quality stocks are moving well, but the low-priced stocks are in vogue and hitting new highs daily. However, the blue chips begin to fade. The suckers have taken the bait.
Tomorrow we will study the phases of a bear market.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Avnet, CAE, Computer Sciences, E-House China, IAMGOLD, Kelly Services, Macy's, Maidenform Brands, Superior Industries, Susser and Winner Medical.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: Advance Auto Parts, Aegean Marine Petroleum, AirMedia, Archipelago Learning, Cisco Systems, Copa Holdings, Education Management, Enersys, Given Imaging, I.D. Systems, Pan American Silver, Silver Wheaton, SRA International, Stanley Furniture and Teekay Shipping.
Economic reports due: Bank Reserve Settlement, MBA purchase applications, international trade (the consensus expects -$42.5 billion), EIA petroleum status report, and Treasury budget (the consensus expects -$170 billion).
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
26 Broken Stocks to Sell Now -There's a long list of companies that have jumped off their lows but are still trading at dirt-cheap prices. But BEWARE: These "bargain" stocks aren't just cheap, they're broken. Get their names here or risk losing your shirt.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. The bottom has now been made and upside volume begins to pick up, ushering in the second phase of "steady advance" when an improved tone of business and a rising trend of corporate earnings are first noticed. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Avnet, CAE, Computer Sciences, E-House China, IAMGOLD, Kelly Services, Macy's, Maidenform Brands, Superior Industries, Susser and Winner Medical.
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But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. But instead of rebounding in anticipation of a favorable Fed announcement, prices headed lower on news that Q2 non-farm productivity made a surprising 0.9% decline. The NYSE traded 980 million shares with decliners ahead of advancers by more than 2.5-to-1.
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But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. And other chip stocks fell as well: Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD ) tumbled 8%, and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU ) fell 3.6%. Instead, fear gripped the market in the morning, then relief over the Fed's decision to leave rates alone rallied stocks which was quickly followed by a final sell-off over concerns that the Fed might not be able to handle a further economic decline.
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But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. By the time the Fed announcement came, the Dow was off about 125 points. Now the only solace that they have is that the major indices managed to close just above their respective 200-day moving averages.
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1854.0
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2010-08-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Trading Signals Say ‘Sell’
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trading-signals-say-sell-2010-08-11
|
nan
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nan
|
The major stock indices spent all of Tuesday in negative territory following poor economic news and a policy announcement after the FOMC meeting.
Stocks opened down in response to lower foreign markets. But instead of rebounding in anticipation of a favorable Fed announcement, prices headed lower on news that Q2 non-farm productivity made a surprising 0.9% decline. And following that, wholesale inventories had a weaker-than-expected 0.1% increase.
By the time the Fed announcement came, the Dow was off about 125 points. However, stocks immediately rallied, taking back half of the losses on news that interest rates would remain at 0% to 0.25%, and that the current conditions warranted low levels of the federal funds rate for the near future.
In addition to keeping rates unchanged, the Fed chiefs plan to reinvest principal payments for agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in Treasuries. It is hoped that this will convince investors that the Fed could move closer to implementing quantitative easing measures to support economic growth and price stability.
As the impact of the announcements took hold, the markets fell from the initial round of buying, rose, and then just before the close, fell again. The feeling among floor traders seemed to be that the Fed has "shot their last cannons and they don't have much left. What they've done has to work because they don't have a whole lot left to do" (Wall Street Journal).
Despite the lower averages, defense-oriented stocks gained and telecom was up 0.4%.
But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%.
Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC ) was the Dow's worst performer, off 4%. And other chip stocks fell as well: Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD ) tumbled 8%, and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU ) fell 3.6%.
Treasuries were in demand with a new three-year note auction yielding 0.844%, the lowest three-year note auction on record. The U.S. dollar held onto a small gain after being much higher in the morning.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 55 points to 10,644, the S&P 500 was down 7 points at 1,121, and the Nasdaq lost 29 points to 2,277.
The NYSE traded 980 million shares with decliners ahead of advancers by more than 2.5-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 595 million shares with decliners ahead by over 3.5-to-1.
Crude oil for September delivery was down $1.23 to $80.25 a barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) fell 46 cents to $55.41.
Concerns over an economic recovery resulted in December gold rising $6.10 to $1,208.70 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) closed at 175.27, off 0.15 points.
What the Markets Are Saying
After two attempts to rush through the resistance at S&P 1,130, stocks pulled back again following Monday's session that had all of the earmarks of a breakout-waiting-to-happen. Instead, fear gripped the market in the morning, then relief over the Fed's decision to leave rates alone rallied stocks which was quickly followed by a final sell-off over concerns that the Fed might not be able to handle a further economic decline.
Technically the bulls appear to have "snatched defeat from the hands of victory" following days of pushing against a major resistance zone after breaking above their 200-day moving averages. Now the only solace that they have is that the major indices managed to close just above their respective 200-day moving averages.
And yesterday's performance presents the bulls with something else to think about: Every major internal indicator on our list has fallen from overbought and yesterday issued a sell signal. Chief among the most watched indicators is Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, (MACD) , which is now "below the line," while both the slow and fast stochastic have flashed a strong "sell."
Granted, these are trading signals. But the timing for such a negative performance just couldn't be worse as traders, investors and portfolio managers want nothing more than to head to their favorite vacation spot following the big Fed announcement.
So, as the summer heat wears on, the market is looking more and more like another slide to the next major support levels at Dow 10,000, S&P 1,050, and Nasdaq 2,150 is in the cards.
Dow Theory Lesson: Bull Market
We've been studying the Dow Theory this week, and now we come to Dow's interpretation of the major market trends and their composition. Today we study the "bull market," which can be divided into three phases.
The first is the "accumulation" phase, which occurs when professional and savvy investors sense that even though business is depressed, it is now time to buy. These investors are willing to buy any and all shares from those who have panicked and are willing to sell at any price just to relieve their stress. Financial reports are usually at their worst at this time, and the public is disgusted with stocks and never want to invest in them again.
The bottom has now been made and upside volume begins to pick up, ushering in the second phase of "steady advance" when an improved tone of business and a rising trend of corporate earnings are first noticed. Technically oriented investors recognize the change in trend and enter the market.
The final phase is the "blow-off" phase when stocks are the main subject at every cocktail party, and your barber and cab driver can't wait to give you their latest tip. Volume is at its peak, most mid-quality stocks are moving well, but the low-priced stocks are in vogue and hitting new highs daily. However, the blue chips begin to fade. The suckers have taken the bait.
Tomorrow we will study the phases of a bear market.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Avnet, CAE, Computer Sciences, E-House China, IAMGOLD, Kelly Services, Macy's, Maidenform Brands, Superior Industries, Susser and Winner Medical.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: Advance Auto Parts, Aegean Marine Petroleum, AirMedia, Archipelago Learning, Cisco Systems, Copa Holdings, Education Management, Enersys, Given Imaging, I.D. Systems, Pan American Silver, Silver Wheaton, SRA International, Stanley Furniture and Teekay Shipping.
Economic reports due: Bank Reserve Settlement, MBA purchase applications, international trade (the consensus expects -$42.5 billion), EIA petroleum status report, and Treasury budget (the consensus expects -$170 billion).
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
26 Broken Stocks to Sell Now -There's a long list of companies that have jumped off their lows but are still trading at dirt-cheap prices. But BEWARE: These "bargain" stocks aren't just cheap, they're broken. Get their names here or risk losing your shirt.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. The bottom has now been made and upside volume begins to pick up, ushering in the second phase of "steady advance" when an improved tone of business and a rising trend of corporate earnings are first noticed. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Avnet, CAE, Computer Sciences, E-House China, IAMGOLD, Kelly Services, Macy's, Maidenform Brands, Superior Industries, Susser and Winner Medical.
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But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. But instead of rebounding in anticipation of a favorable Fed announcement, prices headed lower on news that Q2 non-farm productivity made a surprising 0.9% decline. The NYSE traded 980 million shares with decliners ahead of advancers by more than 2.5-to-1.
|
But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. And other chip stocks fell as well: Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD ) tumbled 8%, and Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU ) fell 3.6%. Instead, fear gripped the market in the morning, then relief over the Fed's decision to leave rates alone rallied stocks which was quickly followed by a final sell-off over concerns that the Fed might not be able to handle a further economic decline.
|
But materials fell with Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) off 2.7%, AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE: AKS ) down 3.2%, and Titanium Metals Corporation (NYSE: TIE ) falling 1.6%. By the time the Fed announcement came, the Dow was off about 125 points. Now the only solace that they have is that the major indices managed to close just above their respective 200-day moving averages.
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1855.0
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2010-08-03 00:00:00 UTC
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Which Dow Stock has the Greatest Upside?
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/which-dow-stock-has-greatest-upside-2010-08-03
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nan
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nan
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What do Boeing ( BA ) and Alcoa ( AA ) have in common? They are book-ends on the Dow Jones Industrial Average's ranking of best and worst-performing stocks thus far in 2010.
Boeing -- up +30.4% -- is seeing rising demand for airplanes, while Alcoa -- off -27.0% -- awaits a rebound in demand for aluminum. It's been a mixed bag of results for this leading index , with 19 stocks rising and the other 11 losing ground since the start of the year.
So which stock is poised to lead the pack for the remainder of the year? Let's look at three candidates. The projected winner will be revealed at the end.
A bullish outlook
Judging strictly by body language, Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) is arguably the most optimistic name among these blue chips. Earlier this month, the company said that chip demand is hot and getting hotter. Based on current trends, analysts have boosted their EPS outlooks by about $0.20 for both of 2010 and 2011 -- the highest upward revision to forecasts on an absolute and percentage basis of any stock in the Dow.
But shares of Intel faded throughout last week, as investors seemingly doubt any bullish statements being made by Intel and its peers. They doubt any upturn Intel is seeing will last: consensus forecasts call for Intel to boost profits next year by just +3%, even though many technology forecasters expect enterprises to embark on a long-awaited upgrade cycle for PCs and servers.
Gushing profits
Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) remains the cash flow king of the Dow, routinely generating $30 billion in free cash flow almost every year. This has helped the oil giant throw off $39 billion in dividends during the past five years and buy back roughly $135 billion worth of stock during that time frame. But that doesn't seem to be good enough to retain investor interest. Since early 2008, shares have been drifting steadily lower from more than $90 to a recent $60. The company's 2.9% dividend yield has been of scant solace in light of that -30% loss in value.
But every dog has its day, and Exxon Mobil's may finally be at hand. That's because the stock's free cash flow yield of 10.7% ($30 billion in free cash flow divided by the company's $280 market capitalization) has rarely been this appealing. The cash flow yield is more than twice the yield offered by corporate debt. The fact that shares also trade for nine times next year's profits also suggest the shares are getting short shrift. And Exxon Mobil's 2010 earnings forecast, which implies more than +15% profit growth, doesn't depend on higher oil prices. Any spike in oil prices from here would just bolster the earnings and free cash flow assumptions.
By the book
There's little reason to find cheer with bank stocks right now. The economy is moribund, Washington has just imposed new regulations, and fresh bombshells seem to pop up from time to time. But not for JP Morgan ( JPM ) , which seems to have trudged through the financial crisis and subsequent rebound with nary a scratch. Yet the sector-wide pall has shares trading right at tangible book value . Historically, banks have traded for 1.5 times book value, and in boom years, they trade up to 2.5 times book value.
What could get shares going? Well, an outlook that the U.S. economy might finally escape this low-growth, high-unemployment morass would kick up the animal spirits in the banking system, which these days is more known for being very stingy with credit. More robust lending activity would inspire analysts to start speaking of more robust growth in banking in the years to come.
Action to Take --> And the winner is . . . Intel!
Investor cynicism runs quite deep toward tech stocks these days, and Intel is no different. Shares are valued at about 12.5 times earnings, about -30% less than the 16.4 P/E it's garnered the past two years. Yet as the company has noted, demand just keeps rising and rising. Expect a higher multiple to be awarded to the shares if Intel's rosy outlook proves true. When tech stocks move back into vogue, Intel will lead the charge.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman has worked as an investment analyst for nearly two decades. He started his career in equity research at Smith Barney, culminating in a position as Senior Analyst covering European banks. David has also served as Director of Research at Individual Investor and has made numerous media appearances over the years, primarily on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. David has a master's degree in management from Georgia Tech. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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What do Boeing ( BA ) and Alcoa ( AA ) have in common? Based on current trends, analysts have boosted their EPS outlooks by about $0.20 for both of 2010 and 2011 -- the highest upward revision to forecasts on an absolute and percentage basis of any stock in the Dow. Well, an outlook that the U.S. economy might finally escape this low-growth, high-unemployment morass would kick up the animal spirits in the banking system, which these days is more known for being very stingy with credit.
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What do Boeing ( BA ) and Alcoa ( AA ) have in common? Gushing profits Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) remains the cash flow king of the Dow, routinely generating $30 billion in free cash flow almost every year. That's because the stock's free cash flow yield of 10.7% ($30 billion in free cash flow divided by the company's $280 market capitalization) has rarely been this appealing.
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What do Boeing ( BA ) and Alcoa ( AA ) have in common? They doubt any upturn Intel is seeing will last: consensus forecasts call for Intel to boost profits next year by just +3%, even though many technology forecasters expect enterprises to embark on a long-awaited upgrade cycle for PCs and servers. Gushing profits Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) remains the cash flow king of the Dow, routinely generating $30 billion in free cash flow almost every year.
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What do Boeing ( BA ) and Alcoa ( AA ) have in common? But shares of Intel faded throughout last week, as investors seemingly doubt any bullish statements being made by Intel and its peers. The fact that shares also trade for nine times next year's profits also suggest the shares are getting short shrift.
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1856.0
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2010-07-16 00:00:00 UTC
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11 Household Names That Will Vanish By 2012
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/11-household-names-will-vanish-2012-2010-07-16
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nan
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nan
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At InvestingAnswers , we have a nose for sniffing out trouble. We've profiled collapsing companies and most recently, the hundreds of banks at risk of being seized by the FDIC . Today our focus is brands.
Since the economic crisis, many well-known brands disappeared thanks to negative economic forces. Today, hundreds of large companies facing uneasy futures remain. Whether they're going under, being bought out, or simply getting a new face, we believe these 11 companies will have a hard time making it to 2012 unchanged.
Borders
Borders ( BGP ) looked like it was out of the game at the end of 2008, when its share price hit $0.35, a historical low for the retailer.
But at the beginning of July, Borders finally released its Kobo e-Reader, nearly three years after Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) started selling its Kindle, and a year after Sony ( SNE ) and Barnes & Noble ( BKS ) released their e-Readers. Even though it was late to market, it looked like Borders had a shot at establishing itself as the no-frills discount e-retailer, pricing the Kobo at just $149. However, since its release, Sony, Amazon, and Barnes & Noble have dropped the prices of their e-Readers to more competitive levels.
But the future of the Borders brand may depend less on the e-Reader market and more on the outcome of a contentious court battle between Barnes & Noble and billionaire Ronald Burke. Burke is suing Barnes & Noble in an attempt to wrestle away a seat on its board of directors, and it is widely believed that if Burke wins the seat, he'll push the company into buying Borders.
Howard Johnson
Howard Johnson is part of the mammoth Wyndham Worldwide Corp. ( WND ) , which owns 13 hotel brands ranging from budget to luxury. Howard Johnson sits right in the middle of that stratum. Originally a 600-store-strong restaurant chain in the 1960s, it's now known primarily as a hotel chain.
While there are some international locations, Howard Johnson is largely an American franchise targeting families and leisure travelers. Rising traveling costs and high unemployment have hurt this demographic and Howard Johnson has failed to target a more lucrative one: business travelers. The brand has been stagnant for the last decade, and it has not initiated any notable marketing campaign or worked to maintain a loyal customer base. The slow motion failure of Howard Johnson would simply mean that a great American classic -- but not a great American performer -- has run its course.
MySpace
When Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (Nasdaq: NWSA) bought MySpace in 2005, it looked like a genius move. Over the next few years, MySpace grew into the most popular social networking site in the U.S. In 2006, Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) paid News Corp $900 million to place search ads within MySpace pages.
But by April 2008, the spark had flickered, and dimmed. Facebook stepped into the light. And it's remained that way ever since. MySpace is currently ranked 25th in Internet traffic -- paltry in comparison to Facebook's #2 spot.
MySpace has struggled to return to its former glory days. In 2009, CEO Rupert Murdoch announced that the social networking site would fall short of its traffic commitments to Google. MySpace's lucrative ad deal with Google expires in August 2010 and there has been no announcement as to how it plans on replacing that revenue. Some analysts, including CNBC's Dennis Kneale, are calling on News Corp to shed some of its brands, including MySpace.
Playgirl
Times have been tough for the entire magazine industry -- classic publications like Gourmet , Modern Bride , Country Home , Vibe , and Blender all closed their doors in 2009. So it's not surprising that Playgirl , an X-rated magazine targeting women, would be among the wreckage.
Playgirl 's publishers, the privately-owned Blue Horizon Media, decided to move the magazine solely online after declining sales made it impossible to continue in print. But the magazine has experienced a renaissance of sorts after convincing Levi Johnston, the father of Bristol Palin's baby, to pose for a special print issue in 2010.
Playgirl plans to capitalize on the momentum and release five issues in 2010, and depending on the reception, come back full force by 2011.
So will Playgirl ultimately make it? The outlook's not so good. Even big publishing houses like Conde Nast and Hearst are having a hard time keeping the doors open, and Playgirl is already over-exerting itself paying astronomical fees for celebrity photo shoots. Furthermore, the magazine's pay-per-view online business plan is falling short, as fewer and fewer people purchase subscriptions.
Acer
This leading Taiwanese computer manufacturer is best-known in the U.S. for its highly portable, cost-effective laptops. When you buy an Acer, you won't get the user-friendliness or visual appeal of an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) , but you will get an efficient device that still gets the job done.
By acquiring U.S.-based Gateway Inc., Acer has expanded its footprint in the U.S. and it plans to have a smartphone on the market by the end of this year. But further consolidation in the PC industry makes Acer a potential juicy acquisition for a struggling market giant, Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) . Acer and Dell have a complementary market exposure, and Acer's strong foreign market presence could help Dell expand outside of the U.S. market. Furthermore, Acer's strong retail channels complement Dell's focus on direct-to-consumer channels. No stranger to game-changing acquisitions, Hewlett-Packard ( HP ) should be considered a potential buyer as well.
AOL
Nearly a decade ago, the AOL Time Warner media merger was valued at well over $100 billion. Today, that mega-merger is considered the all-time biggest destroyer of shareholder wealth, and AOL ( AOL ) has been assigned a much smaller price tag. But people often forget that AOL still has a lot going for it, making it an interesting acquisition target. For example, over the next five years, the company will generate cash equal to its current market cap of $2.3 billion.
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) recently made a run at Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) , a company valued at over $21 billion with a P/E ratio nearing 28. Why not scoop up a company that, at one-tenth the price of Yahoo!, will pay for itself in half a decade? Microsoft would get the 5.8 million (mostly older) U.S. subscribers who still use AOL, and those users could be transitioned to Microsoft's Hotmail service and Bing search engine. Microsoft would also end up with the AOL homepage, which some analysts claim is worth $1 billion alone.
RadioShack
Whether you're looking for a hard-to-find battery or a remote that will control every on/off switch in your house, RadioShack ( RSH ) purports to have it all. Unfortunately, the slump in the consumer electronics space has slashed demand for the store's peripheral products. The recession has even forced RadioShack to ask the city of Fort Worth, Texas, site of its corporate headquarters, to relieve the firm of $10.76 million in tax liabilities.
There has been speculation that RadioShack has hired Goldman Sachs ( GS ) to explore buyout opportunities, and that Best Buy Co. ( BBY ) is an interested suitor. Look for this electronic accessory retailer to be gobbled up by a larger firm within 18 months.
f.y.e.
Trans World Entertainment Corp. (Nasdaq: TWMC) , owner of the f.y.e. music store chain ("for your entertainment"), was just named by Forbes to a list of troubled retailers.
Trans World closed 157 f.y.e. stores during fiscal 2009 and another 18 in the first quarter of 2010. The stores' sales of physical CDs have plummeted, with revenues falling -18% in one year. The company has operated at a loss since 2007. Bob Higgins, chairman and CEO of Trans World, has announced plans to close even more of the unprofitable stores, calling it "good business practice."
The company has been slashing prices, and now many CDs cost $9.99, the same price as a full-length digital album on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes. But a return to profitability means convincing music buyers used to getting music online that they should come to the mall to sort through the racks of CDs like they did a generation ago.
U.S. Cellular
U.S. Cellular ( USM ) is the country's sixth-largest wireless carrier, bringing in $4.2 billion in operating revenue last year. However, smaller carriers are using lower prices to undercut U.S. Cellular while larger firms can offer better coverage and a wider array of mobile devices. U.S. Cellular currently finds itself in no man's land, and has been named a strong candidate for a leveraged buyout by Bank of America.
USM has never publicly expressed interest in being purchased, but according to Bank of America, current market conditions are ideal for weaker companies to be preyed upon by larger competitors. The company's solid customer base, including 6.1 million customers in 26 states makes the company a coveted target for a larger telecom player such as AT&T ( T ) or Verizon ( VZ ) to swoop in and bolster its own market cap.
Foot Locker
Casual shoe sales surpassed sneaker sales during the last decade and Foot Locker ( FL ) can no longer operate the massive sneaker super-centers it was once known for. It has already consolidated its Lady Foot Locker brand with the rest of its products as it continues to trim fat.
On January 8th, Foot Locker announced it would be closing 177 stores and cut 120 executive-level positions, and Moody's recently reaffirmed the junk status of a significant portion of Foot Looker's debt. Foot Locker's target consumer, the die-hard sneaker aficionado, is part of a younger consumer group experiencing high levels of unemployment. In a highly competitive but possibly weakening retail sector, Foot Looker's reorganization may not be enough to pull it through a slow-growth environment, and we see this brand as a former retail giant on the way out.
Alcoa
Aluminum manufacturer Alcoa ( AA ) operates in a tough environment. Prices for inputs (electricity, caustic soda) continue to go up, but prices for the final product (refined aluminum) continue to go down. Some of its largest competitors are Chinese and Russian firms that exist only because of gigantic state subsidies. Subsidized companies have no incentive to stop producing, so the world is awash in aluminum. According to Rusal, the world's largest aluminum producer, the aluminum market may have a surplus of 500,000-700,000 tons in 2010.
And to top it all off, Alcoa's debt load is as close to unsustainable as you can get. For example, from March 31, 2009 to March 31, 2010, Alcoa paid $474 million in interest alone. That comes out to 20% of gross profit (Revenue - COGS) going to debt service before considering any other costs of doing business. The high debt load could easily drive Alcoa into bankruptcy if low prices and high costs continue to put pressure on margins.
InvestingAnswers
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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When you buy an Acer, you won't get the user-friendliness or visual appeal of an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) , but you will get an efficient device that still gets the job done. The company has been slashing prices, and now many CDs cost $9.99, the same price as a full-length digital album on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes. Alcoa Aluminum manufacturer Alcoa ( AA ) operates in a tough environment.
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When you buy an Acer, you won't get the user-friendliness or visual appeal of an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) , but you will get an efficient device that still gets the job done. The company has been slashing prices, and now many CDs cost $9.99, the same price as a full-length digital album on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes. Alcoa Aluminum manufacturer Alcoa ( AA ) operates in a tough environment.
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The company has been slashing prices, and now many CDs cost $9.99, the same price as a full-length digital album on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes. When you buy an Acer, you won't get the user-friendliness or visual appeal of an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) , but you will get an efficient device that still gets the job done. Alcoa Aluminum manufacturer Alcoa ( AA ) operates in a tough environment.
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Alcoa Aluminum manufacturer Alcoa ( AA ) operates in a tough environment. When you buy an Acer, you won't get the user-friendliness or visual appeal of an Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) , but you will get an efficient device that still gets the job done. The company has been slashing prices, and now many CDs cost $9.99, the same price as a full-length digital album on Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes.
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1857.0
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2010-07-16 00:00:00 UTC
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The Very Best Value Plays for Patient Investors
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/very-best-value-plays-patient-investors-2010-07-16
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nan
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nan
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Long before the days of growth stocks, investors used to search for value in stocks that were trading for less than the net assets on their balance sheets. It was a tried-and-true formula for protecting your downside while searching for upside.
The stock market's original gurus - Columbia Business School's Benjamin Graham and David Dodd - laid out a pretty simple premise in their 1934 book Security Analysis : Since we have no crystal ball that tells us where a business is headed, we can only place a value on things we already know. And we know that if a company chose to shut down tomorrow, sell off its assets, pay off its debts, and turn it all into cash, we can get a sense of what value exists. This is a company's tangible book value , which excludes non-cash balance sheet items such as goodwill and amortization. And as those esteemed authors noted, if the stock market's value of a company (known as market capitalization) is less than that tangible book value, then you've got a potential bargain.
In theory, a stock's value should never fall below tangible book value, because investors should bid shares back up right to the point where those two values are equal -- also known as "trading at book." But the market is never that efficient. Sometimes, a stock will fall below its intrinsic worth and trade well below tangible book value. In bull markets, you can always find a few dozen stocks trading below book. And in markets like the current one, you'll find hundreds.
In some instances, investors are right to ignore stated book value. For example, if a company is losing money, cash will decline and so will book value. Alcoa ( AA ) , which kicks off earnings season every quarter, is a fine example. Tangible book value has fallen from $12.76 per share at the end of 2007 to a recent $7.40. Shares fell down to just $5 at the height of the economic crisis, because investors knew that tangible book value would keep shrinking in the face of open-ended losses.
In other instances, a company will carry assets at their cost, but those assets may no longer be worth as much. For example, oil refiners Valero ( VLO ) and Western Refining ( WNR ) spent billions of dollars to build massive facilities to produce gasoline and diesel fuel. But the industry is awash in too much capacity, and neither firm would get all of its money back if they wanted to sell some of those refineries.
In some extreme instances, these stocks not only trade below book value, but below cash levels. Telecom equipment maker Sycamore Networks (Nasdaq: SCMR) is valued by investors at roughly $500 million. Yet Sycamore has roughly $635 million in short and long-term investments.
Presumably, a rival could come along and pay a 25% premium to the company's current market value and get the whole business for free by sucking out that cash. This is a clear instance where Graham & Dodd would be scratching their heads.
I ran a screen and found hundreds of stocks trading below book. I've greatly condensed that list for you by, among other things, placing a $500 million minimum on market value. I've also eliminated a number of financial services firms due to anomalies associated with the stated values of their assets and liabilities (though we retained some financial names on the list that do represent clearly-valued balance sheet items).
Ingram Micro ( IM )
As the table shows, some stocks trade for sharp discounts to book value. And many of these stocks have likely found a floor, even if the rest of the market slumps further. For example, shares of Ingram Micro, the world's largest distributor of office equipment and electronics, have fallen to just 85% of tangible book value on fears that European sales will slump in coming quarters.
But value investors should be ready to pounce. That's because tangible book value has risen from $10.59 in 2004 to a recent $18.32. Almost all of that gain is attributable to a rising cash hoard, which now approaches $1 billion. And that figure is likely to keep rising, as Ingram Micro should remain nicely profitable, even if European sales slump. Ingram Micro has never lost money (excluding a one-time charge in 2009) in its history.
Dillard's ( DDS )
There are two things you need to know about this long-standing department store chain. Management has a very spotty track record in terms of sales and profit growth, and the company is sitting on a gold mine in terms of real estate . The company's portfolio of stores is likely worth at least the $3 billion that it is being valued on its books. Yet the whole company is valued at less than half of that figure.
Dillard's results are sharply improved this year, as earnings per share should more than double. But the country is still awash in too much retail space. So Dillard's would need to wait before trying to raise cash by selling any stores. But if it comes to that, investors should note that many of Dillard's stores are situated in prime locations. Meanwhile, the whole company is valued at just 69% of tangible book value.
Royal Caribbean ( RCL )
A cruise ship just isn't worth as much anymore. They cost oodles of money to build, and are currently being packed in with discount-seeking bargain hunters. Many ships are barely generating more profits than the loans taken out to pay for them. Part of the problem stems from a glut of cruise ships that were built while the economy was humming. It takes several years to build a ship, so new ones kept coming, even as the economy slumped.
But over time, demand for cruises should catch up with supply, and the value of the cruise ships built by Royal Caribbean will start to rise back to the value of their construction costs. Shares would need to rise by 21% just to get back up to tangible book value.
Action to Take --> These value situations require patience. Indeed, Graham & Dodd preached " Buy and Hold ." In the meantime, these stocks are likely to fall by less than other stocks that trade far above book value. So you get (eventual) reward without too much risk. Of these companies profiled, Ingram Micro is the most likely to see tangible book value keep rising, while investors in Royal Caribbean and Dillard's will need to wait for the market for their assets (ships and real estate , respectively) to become better appreciated.
InvestingAnswers
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) , which kicks off earnings season every quarter, is a fine example. Shares fell down to just $5 at the height of the economic crisis, because investors knew that tangible book value would keep shrinking in the face of open-ended losses. For example, shares of Ingram Micro, the world's largest distributor of office equipment and electronics, have fallen to just 85% of tangible book value on fears that European sales will slump in coming quarters.
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Alcoa ( AA ) , which kicks off earnings season every quarter, is a fine example. This is a company's tangible book value , which excludes non-cash balance sheet items such as goodwill and amortization. In theory, a stock's value should never fall below tangible book value, because investors should bid shares back up right to the point where those two values are equal -- also known as "trading at book."
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Alcoa ( AA ) , which kicks off earnings season every quarter, is a fine example. And as those esteemed authors noted, if the stock market's value of a company (known as market capitalization) is less than that tangible book value, then you've got a potential bargain. In theory, a stock's value should never fall below tangible book value, because investors should bid shares back up right to the point where those two values are equal -- also known as "trading at book."
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Alcoa ( AA ) , which kicks off earnings season every quarter, is a fine example. Meanwhile, the whole company is valued at just 69% of tangible book value. Shares would need to rise by 21% just to get back up to tangible book value.
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1858.0
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2010-07-15 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa (AA) trade bets on volatility ahead of earnings
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoa-aa-trade-bets-volatility-ahead-earnings-2010-07-15
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is due to announce earnings figures in a few hours and options action on the tape suggests an investor expects the stock to experience increased volatility during the near term. The August 11-strike calls and puts are active during the trading session on Monday thanks to an investor who was willing to risk a hefty amount of capital to call for significant moves in one direction or the other.
Between 10 a.m. EST and 12:30 p.m. EST, more than 6,000 August 11 straddles changed hands. The August 11 calls changed hands for 57 cents (closer to the ask price) per contract while the August 11 puts crossed the tape for 79 cents per contract (closer to the ask price) , indicating the investor paid a net debit of $1.36 per straddle. The calls are home to current open interest of 6,000 contracts while the puts are home to current open interest of 1,000 contracts. The investors who bought this near-dated straddle will turn profits if AA shares are trading below $9.64 or above $12.36 at August options expiration (Aug. 20). This means that investors are banking on a spike in volatility during the next month and for the stock to move at least 11% to the downside or 13% to the upside. If AA shares are still trading between the strike at August options expiration, the investor loses the premium paid. If AA shares are trading between the breakeven prices, the investor takes back some of the debit paid. Maximum profits to the downside (in the unlikely event that AA is trading at zero at expiration) is $9.64, while the investor could theoretically make unlimited profits to the upside if AA shares soar higher than the upper breakeven price. This long straddle action suggests an investor expects the stock to move significantly following the company's earnings release this afternoon.
AA shares dropped five cents to $10.89 during afternoon trading. The stock has dropped roughly 25% from its recent highs in April. Analysts estimate earnings of 12 cents a share from the company.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is due to announce earnings figures in a few hours and options action on the tape suggests an investor expects the stock to experience increased volatility during the near term. The investors who bought this near-dated straddle will turn profits if AA shares are trading below $9.64 or above $12.36 at August options expiration (Aug. 20). If AA shares are still trading between the strike at August options expiration, the investor loses the premium paid.
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Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is due to announce earnings figures in a few hours and options action on the tape suggests an investor expects the stock to experience increased volatility during the near term. The investors who bought this near-dated straddle will turn profits if AA shares are trading below $9.64 or above $12.36 at August options expiration (Aug. 20). If AA shares are still trading between the strike at August options expiration, the investor loses the premium paid.
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The investors who bought this near-dated straddle will turn profits if AA shares are trading below $9.64 or above $12.36 at August options expiration (Aug. 20). Maximum profits to the downside (in the unlikely event that AA is trading at zero at expiration) is $9.64, while the investor could theoretically make unlimited profits to the upside if AA shares soar higher than the upper breakeven price. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is due to announce earnings figures in a few hours and options action on the tape suggests an investor expects the stock to experience increased volatility during the near term.
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AA shares dropped five cents to $10.89 during afternoon trading. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) is due to announce earnings figures in a few hours and options action on the tape suggests an investor expects the stock to experience increased volatility during the near term. The investors who bought this near-dated straddle will turn profits if AA shares are trading below $9.64 or above $12.36 at August options expiration (Aug. 20).
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1859.0
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2010-07-14 00:00:00 UTC
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Reconciling Bad Economic Data and Good Earnings
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/reconciling-bad-economic-data-and-good-earnings-2010-07-14
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nan
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nan
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Daryl Montgomery submits:
So far this earnings season, company reports indicate that business is going gangbusters. U.S. economic reports are painting exactly the opposite picture, however. This may not be as contradictory as it appears on the surface.
As for earnings, Intel ( INTC ) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. This morning, however, U.S. retail sales numbers disappointed again, falling 0.5% in June following a 1.1% drop in May. Mortgages for home purchases fell to a 14-year low. According to the non-farms payroll reports, close to a million people net left the U.S. labor market in May and June because jobs were so scarce that they simply gave up looking. Later today, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower its expectations for second half U.S. economic growth.
One of the important things to note is that both Intel and Alcoa are global companies. While many people assume that the U.S. is Intel's major market, it isn't. East Asia dominates Intel's sales. Strong Intel numbers generally indicate a robust East Asian economy. Growth has indeed been strong there. Intel's biggest growth sector by far was servers, which were up 170%. These are used for the Internet. Intel also cited cloud computing as a driver of sales. It is possible for a new technology to grow while the economy declines. The best example of this is the growth of radio during the Great Depression in the 1930s.
As for Alcoa, its projections may prove to be much too bullish. Industrial metals appear weak across the board and this indicates global manufacturing could turn negative in the next few months. CSX's good numbers were dependent on auto shipments. That market in the U.S. peaked in the third quarter of 2009 because of the Cash for Clunkers program. In the June retail sales report, autos were the weakest component.
Investors should not make judgments for the U.S. economy based on figures for global companies, especially when the U.S. is only a minority of their business. The U.S. economy can be much weaker than Asian economies. Asia was in the driver's seat pulling the world out of the Credit Crisis recession and the U.S. followed. The U.S. may lead once again, though, bringing the world into the next recession.
Disclosure: No positions
See also Stocks Take a Rest: Will They Wake Up Rejuvenated? on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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As for earnings, Intel ( INTC ) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. According to the non-farms payroll reports, close to a million people net left the U.S. labor market in May and June because jobs were so scarce that they simply gave up looking. Industrial metals appear weak across the board and this indicates global manufacturing could turn negative in the next few months.
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As for earnings, Intel ( INTC ) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. In the June retail sales report, autos were the weakest component. on seekingalpha.com The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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As for earnings, Intel ( INTC ) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. One of the important things to note is that both Intel and Alcoa are global companies. Strong Intel numbers generally indicate a robust East Asian economy.
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As for earnings, Intel ( INTC ) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. Growth has indeed been strong there. In the June retail sales report, autos were the weakest component.
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1860.0
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2010-07-14 00:00:00 UTC
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Good Earnings in a Bad Economy
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/good-earnings-bad-economy-2010-07-14
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nan
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nan
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So far this earnings season, company reports indicate that business is going gangbusters. U.S. economic reports are painting exactly the opposite picture however. This may not be as contradictory as it appears on the surface.
As for earnings, Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. This morning however U.S. retail sales (NYSEArca: XRT) numbers disappointed again, falling 0.5% in June following a 1.1% drop in May. Mortgages for home purchases fell to a 14-year low. According to the non-farms payroll reports, close to a million people net left the U.S. labor market in May and June because jobs were so scarce that they simply gave up looking. Later today, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower its expectations for second half U.S. economic growth.
One of the important things to note is that both Intel and Alcoa are global companies. While many people assume that the U.S. is Intel's major market, it isn't. East Asia dominates Intel's sales. Strong Intel numbers generally indicate a robust East Asian economy. Growth has indeed been strong there. Intel's biggest growth sector by far was servers, which were up 170%. These are used for the Internet. Intel also cited cloud computing as a driver of sales. It is possible for a new technology to grow while the economy declines. The best example of this is the growth of radio during the Great Depression 1930s.
As for Alcoa, its projections may prove to be much too bullish. Industrial metals appear weak across the board and this indicates global manufacturing could turn negative in the next few months. CSX's good numbers were dependent on auto shipments. That market in the U.S. peaked in the third quarter of 2009 because of the Cash for Clunkers program. In the June retail sales report, autos were the weakest component.
Investors should not make judgments for the U.S. economy based on figures for global companies, especially when the U.S. is only a minority of their business. The U.S. economy can be much weaker than Asian economies. Asia was in the driver seat pulling the world out of the Credit Crisis recession and the U.S. followed. The U.S. may lead once again though bringing the world into the next recession.
Disclosure: No positions
Daryl Montgomery
Organizer, New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
As for earnings, Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. According to the non-farms payroll reports, close to a million people net left the U.S. labor market in May and June because jobs were so scarce that they simply gave up looking. Industrial metals appear weak across the board and this indicates global manufacturing could turn negative in the next few months.
|
As for earnings, Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. In the June retail sales report, autos were the weakest component. Disclosure: No positions Daryl Montgomery Organizer, New York Investing meetup http://investing.meetup.com/21 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
As for earnings, Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. One of the important things to note is that both Intel and Alcoa are global companies. Strong Intel numbers generally indicate a robust East Asian economy.
|
As for earnings, Intel (NasdaqGS: INTC) reported record numbers yesterday, after Alcoa ( AA ) upgraded its forecast for global aluminum sales and U.S. railroad company CSX ( CSX ) said shipments were up considerably. Growth has indeed been strong there. In the June retail sales report, autos were the weakest component.
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1861.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa and CSX Will Have Tough Comparisons in Q3
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoa-and-csx-will-have-tough-comparisons-q3-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) The Q2 earnings season began with aluminum company Alcoa and rail freight operator CSX reporting on Monday. The stock market reacted jubilantly to the news. Careful examination however indicates there is very little reason for economic optimism based on these releases.
On the surface, comparisons looked good versus the Q2 2009. However, Q2 2009 was right off the Great Recession bottom and it would be almost impossible not to do a lot better. Alcoa's ( AA ) revenue was up 18% and CSX's ( CSX ) was up 22%. A 44% increased in metals freight shipments by CSX were seen as verification that Alcoa should be doing better. Automotive shipments by CSX were up 63% by volume year over year and vehicle manufacturing requires a lot of aluminum. It all looks really good as long as you don't look any further.
New car sales were in the dumps in Q2 2009 with only around 9.6 million vehicles sold. By Q3 2009 however around 11.5 million vehicles were sold (thanks to Cash for Clunkers), so comparisons next quarter are going to be difficult for both CSX and Alcoa. Approximately 11.2 million vehicles were sold in the U.S. in Q2 2010, but sales dropped 11% between May and June (the usual seasonal drop is 3%). So it looks like the summer will be weak for auto sales and sales for Q3 2010 will possibly be much lower than the previous year's level. This can only negatively impact next quarter's earnings for both Alcoa and CSX.
The market also got excited about Alcoa's revising its global demand forecast up 10% to 12%. While this would certainly be good news if it happens, traders seemed skeptical based on the action in the stock. Alcoa peaked in January and has been trading in a bearish pattern since mid-May. The stock is up only a very modest amount so far today. After a six-month drop, a more enthusiastic reaction should be expected on good news.
The stock market (NYSEArca: DIA) is supposed to look forward at least six months. Earnings are backward looking. They are only significant to the extent that the underlying trends that created last quarter's earnings continue to hold. There is a lot of reason to believe that this will not be the case. Big government stimulus programs are fading and the economy is weakening, not strengthening as it was a year ago.
Daryl Montgomery
Organizer, New York Investing meetup
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) revenue was up 18% and CSX's ( CSX ) was up 22%. SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) The Q2 earnings season began with aluminum company Alcoa and rail freight operator CSX reporting on Monday. By Q3 2009 however around 11.5 million vehicles were sold (thanks to Cash for Clunkers), so comparisons next quarter are going to be difficult for both CSX and Alcoa.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) revenue was up 18% and CSX's ( CSX ) was up 22%. SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) The Q2 earnings season began with aluminum company Alcoa and rail freight operator CSX reporting on Monday. Daryl Montgomery Organizer, New York Investing meetup The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) revenue was up 18% and CSX's ( CSX ) was up 22%. SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) The Q2 earnings season began with aluminum company Alcoa and rail freight operator CSX reporting on Monday. Automotive shipments by CSX were up 63% by volume year over year and vehicle manufacturing requires a lot of aluminum.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) revenue was up 18% and CSX's ( CSX ) was up 22%. The stock market reacted jubilantly to the news. Automotive shipments by CSX were up 63% by volume year over year and vehicle manufacturing requires a lot of aluminum.
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1862.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Dividend Market Wrap-Up for July 13 (CSX, AA, JPM, BAC, PNC, GS, more)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dividend-market-wrap-july-13-csx-aa-jpm-bac-pnc-gs-more-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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The market couldn't wait to get the earnings-related ramp started as the buzz centered around the early results out of CSX Corp ( CSX ) and Alcoa ( AA ) this morning.
It would be great to see a steady stream of good news from corporate America, but we will be taking a deeper look to see if the news is indeed as good as analysts will be gushing about. Share buyback announcements tend to coincide with earnings reports at times, but we would of course prefer to see companies lift dividend payouts, rather than using excess cash to buy back shares, including options that are issued to higher-level executives. Certainly not as rewarding to investors as most share buyback prophets would have you believe.
Taking a look at today's tape, financials pushed out in front on the back of a big upgrade call from brokerage firm Susquehanna. Names moving up on call included JP Morgan ( JPM ) , Morgan Stanley ( MS ) , and Goldman Sachs ( GS ) . Other names in the space that joined the rally included PNC Financial ( PNC ) and Blackrock ( BLK ) . The positive sentiment comes despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke once again trying to step up pressure on banks to begin lending more to smaller firms, which employ at least half of American workers. The jobs situation is something we will not ignore, and we see this becoming a bigger part of the earnings picture if consumer spending continues to contract (which it likely will). On a volume note, we did see a nice pick up on the NASDAQ with 4.64 Billion shares traded, while the NYSE came in at a somewhat respectable, but still somewhat light total of 4.64 Billion shares.
We will continue to monitor out current dividend recommendations closely and are also keeping an eye out on dividend stocks that could be attractive moving forward currently not on our Best Dividend Stocks list.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The market couldn't wait to get the earnings-related ramp started as the buzz centered around the early results out of CSX Corp ( CSX ) and Alcoa ( AA ) this morning. Taking a look at today's tape, financials pushed out in front on the back of a big upgrade call from brokerage firm Susquehanna. The positive sentiment comes despite Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke once again trying to step up pressure on banks to begin lending more to smaller firms, which employ at least half of American workers.
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The market couldn't wait to get the earnings-related ramp started as the buzz centered around the early results out of CSX Corp ( CSX ) and Alcoa ( AA ) this morning. Other names in the space that joined the rally included PNC Financial ( PNC ) and Blackrock ( BLK ) . The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The market couldn't wait to get the earnings-related ramp started as the buzz centered around the early results out of CSX Corp ( CSX ) and Alcoa ( AA ) this morning. Share buyback announcements tend to coincide with earnings reports at times, but we would of course prefer to see companies lift dividend payouts, rather than using excess cash to buy back shares, including options that are issued to higher-level executives. We will continue to monitor out current dividend recommendations closely and are also keeping an eye out on dividend stocks that could be attractive moving forward currently not on our Best Dividend Stocks list.
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The market couldn't wait to get the earnings-related ramp started as the buzz centered around the early results out of CSX Corp ( CSX ) and Alcoa ( AA ) this morning. It would be great to see a steady stream of good news from corporate America, but we will be taking a deeper look to see if the news is indeed as good as analysts will be gushing about. Certainly not as rewarding to investors as most share buyback prophets would have you believe.
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1863.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Options Trade of the Day: A Cisco Systems Vertical Call Spread Ahead of Earnings
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/options-trade-day-cisco-systems-vertical-call-spread-ahead-earnings-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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With Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) kicking off the start of the 2010 second-quarter earnings season last night, options traders will most certainly become increasingly obsessed with placing bets ahead of quarterly reports. While Cisco Systems Inc. ( CSCO ) isn't expected to release its earnings figures for several weeks, it isn't too early for options traders to begin positioning themselves ahead of the event. As such, some of today's more than 23,000 call contracts changing hands on CSCO may have been earnings-related. That said, the most active contract on the session, the July 22 call, will have expired long before Cisco steps into the earnings confessional.
Getting to the heart of the options play, the trader sold (to open) a block of 650 October 27 calls for the bid price of $0.15 on the International Securities Exchange ( ISE ) at about 1:41 p.m. Eastern time. At the same time, he purchased a block of 650 October 25 calls for the ask price of $0.53. Given this data, it would appear that we are looking at a vertical call spread, more commonly known as a debit spread , on Cisco Systems. This options strategy is also known as a long call spread, or a bull call spread.
The Anatomy of an Cisco Systems Vertical Call Spread
Breaking down this debit spread position, the trader purchased 650 October 25 calls for the ask price of $0.53, resulting in a debit of $34,450 -- (0.53 * 100) * 650 = $34,450. In the absence of the premium received by selling the October 27 call, the trader would need CSCO to rally nearly 11.7% from Monday's close at $22.86, to $25.53 per share, in order for the position to reach breakeven at expiration. Furthermore, the maximum loss on this leg of the position is limited to the initial investment of $34,450.
As you can see, the second leg of the debit spread helps to offset the cost of the overall position. In this case, the trader sold 650 October 27 calls for the bid price of $0.15, netting a total credit of $9,750 -- (0.15 * 100) * 650 = $9,750. Combining this leg of the trade with the purchased October 25 call lowers the total cost of the entire position to $24,700 -- $34,450 - $9,750 = $24,700.
The maximum profit is calculated by subtracting the premium paid from the difference between the two strikes, and is reached if CSCO rallies to $27 per share at expiration. In this case, the maximum profit is $1.32 -- (27 - 25) - 0.68 = $1.32 -- or $132 per contract. The maximum loss is equal to the net debit of $0.68, or $68 per contract. Below is a chart for a rough visual representation of the trade's profit/loss scenario:
Implied Volatility
After the vertical call spread has been entered, increasing implied volatility is pretty much neutral to the overall position, as it lifts the value of both the sold option and the purchased option. At the time of the trade, implieds for the October 25 call arrived at 25.80%, while the implied volatility for the October 27 call came in at 24.18%. For a point of reference, CSCO's three-month historical volatility was 67.01% as of the close of trading on Monday.
Follow Schaeffer's to the San Francisco MoneyShow Aug. 19 -- 21, 2010! Click here for details, including a list of scheduled presentations and how to register.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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With Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) kicking off the start of the 2010 second-quarter earnings season last night, options traders will most certainly become increasingly obsessed with placing bets ahead of quarterly reports. Getting to the heart of the options play, the trader sold (to open) a block of 650 October 27 calls for the bid price of $0.15 on the International Securities Exchange ( ISE ) at about 1:41 p.m. Eastern time. In the absence of the premium received by selling the October 27 call, the trader would need CSCO to rally nearly 11.7% from Monday's close at $22.86, to $25.53 per share, in order for the position to reach breakeven at expiration.
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With Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) kicking off the start of the 2010 second-quarter earnings season last night, options traders will most certainly become increasingly obsessed with placing bets ahead of quarterly reports. The Anatomy of an Cisco Systems Vertical Call Spread Breaking down this debit spread position, the trader purchased 650 October 25 calls for the ask price of $0.53, resulting in a debit of $34,450 -- (0.53 * 100) * 650 = $34,450. In this case, the trader sold 650 October 27 calls for the bid price of $0.15, netting a total credit of $9,750 -- (0.15 * 100) * 650 = $9,750.
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With Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) kicking off the start of the 2010 second-quarter earnings season last night, options traders will most certainly become increasingly obsessed with placing bets ahead of quarterly reports. The Anatomy of an Cisco Systems Vertical Call Spread Breaking down this debit spread position, the trader purchased 650 October 25 calls for the ask price of $0.53, resulting in a debit of $34,450 -- (0.53 * 100) * 650 = $34,450. Below is a chart for a rough visual representation of the trade's profit/loss scenario: Implied Volatility After the vertical call spread has been entered, increasing implied volatility is pretty much neutral to the overall position, as it lifts the value of both the sold option and the purchased option.
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With Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) kicking off the start of the 2010 second-quarter earnings season last night, options traders will most certainly become increasingly obsessed with placing bets ahead of quarterly reports. This options strategy is also known as a long call spread, or a bull call spread. The Anatomy of an Cisco Systems Vertical Call Spread Breaking down this debit spread position, the trader purchased 650 October 25 calls for the ask price of $0.53, resulting in a debit of $34,450 -- (0.53 * 100) * 650 = $34,450.
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1864.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Closing bullish Alcoa (AA) position on the heels of earnings
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/closing-bullish-alcoa-aa-position-heels-earnings-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) shares climbed roughly 1% the day after announcing earnings figures, and started the session on Tuesday even higher. LEAPS calls were active during morning trading thanks to at least one investor who appears to think the stock will be hard-pressed to rally during the long term.
AA shares were trading up 13 cents to $11 at 2:35 p.m. EST. The stock reached a session high of roughly $11.30 per share earlier this morning. After the market closed yesterday, AA announced earnings of 13 cents per share, which beat estimates from Thomson Reuters by just one cent. We saw heavy volume accumulate in the January 2012 15 call line, and the majority of the action looks like selling.
During the first hour of trading, investors collected roughly $1 per contract (closer to the bid price the volume hit the tape) for more than 5,500 January 2012 15 calls. Current open interest of these LEAPS options is 36,000 contracts. The divergence between options volume and current open interest suggests the call sellers closed long positions in AA and could have incurred a slight loss depending on the original price to open the trade. It is likely that the investor believes the stock will not rally above $15 during the next year and half, and chose to sell out of the position before losing money as the stock retreats from its previous highs the day after AA released earnings.
A closer look at time and sales suggests the investor traded this position with stock. At 10:30 a.m. EST, a block of 250,000 shares changed hands for $10.90. This stock and options action suggests an investor expects AA implied volatility to come in now that earnings are out of the way. The January 2012 15 calls are trading with an implied volatility of roughly 40% compared to the stock's 30-day historical volatility of 43%.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) shares climbed roughly 1% the day after announcing earnings figures, and started the session on Tuesday even higher. AA shares were trading up 13 cents to $11 at 2:35 p.m. EST. After the market closed yesterday, AA announced earnings of 13 cents per share, which beat estimates from Thomson Reuters by just one cent.
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Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) shares climbed roughly 1% the day after announcing earnings figures, and started the session on Tuesday even higher. The divergence between options volume and current open interest suggests the call sellers closed long positions in AA and could have incurred a slight loss depending on the original price to open the trade. This stock and options action suggests an investor expects AA implied volatility to come in now that earnings are out of the way.
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The divergence between options volume and current open interest suggests the call sellers closed long positions in AA and could have incurred a slight loss depending on the original price to open the trade. It is likely that the investor believes the stock will not rally above $15 during the next year and half, and chose to sell out of the position before losing money as the stock retreats from its previous highs the day after AA released earnings. This stock and options action suggests an investor expects AA implied volatility to come in now that earnings are out of the way.
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It is likely that the investor believes the stock will not rally above $15 during the next year and half, and chose to sell out of the position before losing money as the stock retreats from its previous highs the day after AA released earnings. This stock and options action suggests an investor expects AA implied volatility to come in now that earnings are out of the way. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) shares climbed roughly 1% the day after announcing earnings figures, and started the session on Tuesday even higher.
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1865.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: Alcoa Gives DJIA Bulls a Shot in the Arm
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-alcoa-gives-djia-bulls-shot-arm-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) may have gained only about 18 points on Monday, but the rally pushed the venerable average past resistance at the 10,200 level and marked the fifth straight gain for the Dow. The DJIA is also trading above its 10-week moving average, and given the historical upside bias of expiration weeks, it has a good chance of closing the week above this trendline for the first time since late April. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) wasn't as lucky as the Dow, closing below resistance in the 1,080-1,085 region and its 10-week moving average. Today's session looks promising, however, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading 64 points and 9 points above fair value, respectively, as traders react to a strong quarterly performance from Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). Alcoa shares are up more than 4% in pre-market trading, which bodes well for Wall Street, as the stock's post-earnings reaction has been a good indicator for overall market direction.
Speaking of Alcoa, the aluminum giant said that it swung to a second-quarter profit of $136 million, or 13 cents per share, due to lower costs and stronger aluminum demand. The results were in line with analyst expectations. Revenue rose 22% to $5.2 billion from the year-earlier quarter, topping the consensus analyst target of $4.97 billion. The company also raised its 2010 forecast for global aluminum consumption.
Elsewhere, CSX Corp. ( CSX ) said its second-quarter profit from continuing operations came in at $414 million, or $1.07 per share. Revenue climbed 22% to nearly $2.7 billion. CSX was expected to earn 96 cents per share on revenue of $2.62 billion.
Finally, Novellus Systems Inc. ( NVLS ) reported a second-quarter profit of $63.3 million, or 66 cents per share. Revenue was $321.4 million, up from $119.2 million. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings of 60 cents per share, on revenue of $312 million.
Earnings Preview
The Fastenal Co. ( FAST ), Infosys Technologies Limited ( INFY ), Intel Corp. ( INTC ), and Yum! Brands Inc. ( YUM ) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings report today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
May's trade balance and June's Treasury budget arrive today. Tomorrow, the market will be graced with the weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies, as well as June's retail sales, June's import/export prices, May's business inventories, and the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Inflationary data is on tap for Thursday, with the release of June's producer price index (PPI) and the core PPI reading. Furthermore, weekly initial jobless claims, July's Empire State manufacturing index, June's industrial production/capacity utilization report, and the July Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index are all slated for release. Finally, Friday finishes off a week packed full of data with June's consumer price index ( CPI ), the core CPI, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ) saw 1,016,963 call contracts traded on Monday, compared to 644,961 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.63, while the 21-day moving average held at 0.65.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is mostly positive this morning, as seven of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a gain of 0.67%. In Asian trading, regional indexes erased early gains after Chinese leadership in Beijing denied that it would relax its tightening policies on the property market. Meanwhile, European markets are broadly higher, as traders cheer strong earnings outlooks from Alcoa Inc. and BMW. Furthermore, data out of the U.K. pointed toward slowing inflationary pressures, though less than expected. Specifically, consumer prices rose 0.1% in June and were 3.2% higher on a year-over-year basis, the Office for National Statistics said. Economists had forecast a flat monthly reading and a 3.1% annual rise. Overseas market information comes to you courtesy of Schaeffer's Daily Bulletin .
Currencies and Commodities
The U.S. dollar is trading fractionally lower this morning due to a mix of data, including news that Moody's downgraded Portugal's government debt rating by two notches. The euro is trading lower as a result, but the dollar is being eschewed in favor of equities this morning following last night's quarterly report from Alcoa Inc. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index is off 0.05% at 84.17 heading into the open. Commodities, meanwhile, are taking advantage of the lower greenback. Specifically, gold futures have risen $8.20 to $1,206.90 an ounce in London, while crude oil has added 44 cents to $75.39 per barrel in electronic trading.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Click here for the new spring issue of SENTIMENT magazine
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Today's session looks promising, however, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading 64 points and 9 points above fair value, respectively, as traders react to a strong quarterly performance from Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). In Asian trading, regional indexes erased early gains after Chinese leadership in Beijing denied that it would relax its tightening policies on the property market. Currencies and Commodities The U.S. dollar is trading fractionally lower this morning due to a mix of data, including news that Moody's downgraded Portugal's government debt rating by two notches.
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Today's session looks promising, however, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading 64 points and 9 points above fair value, respectively, as traders react to a strong quarterly performance from Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). Analysts had expected the company to report earnings of 60 cents per share, on revenue of $312 million. Inflationary data is on tap for Thursday, with the release of June's producer price index (PPI) and the core PPI reading.
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Today's session looks promising, however, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading 64 points and 9 points above fair value, respectively, as traders react to a strong quarterly performance from Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). Analysts had expected the company to report earnings of 60 cents per share, on revenue of $312 million. Finally, Friday finishes off a week packed full of data with June's consumer price index ( CPI ), the core CPI, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July.
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Today's session looks promising, however, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading 64 points and 9 points above fair value, respectively, as traders react to a strong quarterly performance from Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). CSX was expected to earn 96 cents per share on revenue of $2.62 billion. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings of 60 cents per share, on revenue of $312 million.
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1866.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa Swings to Q2 Profit, Boosts Aluminum Demand Outlook (AA)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoa-swings-q2-profit-boosts-aluminum-demand-outlook-aa-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a second quarter profit, beating expectations, and raised its estimates for aluminum consumption.
The Pittsburgh-based company reported fiscal second quarter net income of $136 million, or 13 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $454 million, or 47 cents per share, in the year-ago period. On a continuing operations basis, earnings were $137 million, or 13 cents per share.
Revenue surged 22% from last year, to $5.2 billion.
On average, Wall Street analysts expected a smaller profit of 11 cents per share, on lower revenue of $5.05 billion.
Looking ahead, the company said it expects aluminum demand to rise as a result of strong fundamentals. Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld said he sees an average demand growth rate of 6% per year, noting "You see robust consumption growth in places like China, Brazil, India, modest increases in North America and Europe. There's a lot of very positive indications there of a real recovery in almost all of these markets … but I believe that the biggest risk is still the volatility that could potentially come from financial markets."
Alcoa shares rose 38 cents, or +3.5%, in premarket trading Tuesday.
The Bottom Line
We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. The company has a dividend yield of 1.10%, based on last night's closing stock price of $10.87. The stock has technical support in the $9-$10 price area. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $12-$13 price levels. We are watching the shares closely, but would remain on the sidelines for now.
Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a second quarter profit, beating expectations, and raised its estimates for aluminum consumption. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a second quarter profit, beating expectations, and raised its estimates for aluminum consumption. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a second quarter profit, beating expectations, and raised its estimates for aluminum consumption. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) late Monday said it swung to a second quarter profit, beating expectations, and raised its estimates for aluminum consumption. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
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1867.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Oil Gains on Economic Optimism, Energy Forecast, Weaker Dollar
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-gains-economic-optimism-energy-forecast-weaker-dollar-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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Crude-oil futures rose briefly above $77 a barrel for the first time in two weeks as a combination of factors coincided to provide some price support, including optimism about the economy and projections for rising oil demand next year.
Financial results form Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and CSX Corp. ( CSX ) helped spark an early equities rally and Greece's successful debt sale weighed on the dollar, which helped the oil rally. The International Energy Agency also forecast rising oil demand next year.
Crude for August delivery rallied to a high of $77.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before falling back to a gain of $1.92 or $76.87 a barrel. Oil was last above $77 in June.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
Financial results form Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and CSX Corp. ( CSX ) helped spark an early equities rally and Greece's successful debt sale weighed on the dollar, which helped the oil rally. Crude-oil futures rose briefly above $77 a barrel for the first time in two weeks as a combination of factors coincided to provide some price support, including optimism about the economy and projections for rising oil demand next year. The International Energy Agency also forecast rising oil demand next year.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Financial results form Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and CSX Corp. ( CSX ) helped spark an early equities rally and Greece's successful debt sale weighed on the dollar, which helped the oil rally. Crude-oil futures rose briefly above $77 a barrel for the first time in two weeks as a combination of factors coincided to provide some price support, including optimism about the economy and projections for rising oil demand next year.
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Financial results form Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and CSX Corp. ( CSX ) helped spark an early equities rally and Greece's successful debt sale weighed on the dollar, which helped the oil rally. Crude-oil futures rose briefly above $77 a barrel for the first time in two weeks as a combination of factors coincided to provide some price support, including optimism about the economy and projections for rising oil demand next year. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Financial results form Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) and CSX Corp. ( CSX ) helped spark an early equities rally and Greece's successful debt sale weighed on the dollar, which helped the oil rally. Crude-oil futures rose briefly above $77 a barrel for the first time in two weeks as a combination of factors coincided to provide some price support, including optimism about the economy and projections for rising oil demand next year. The International Energy Agency also forecast rising oil demand next year.
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1868.0
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2010-07-13 00:00:00 UTC
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Oil Up as Strong U.S. Earnings Increase Optimism; Gold Stronger on Portugal Downgrade
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-strong-us-earnings-increase-optimism-gold-stronger-portugal-downgrade-2010-07-13
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nan
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nan
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Oil is on the rise in early morning trade on improved economic sentiment in the United States in particular, with companies such as aluminum giant Alcoa Inc ( AA ) posting better-than-expected earnings results. Still, global demand for oil is seen falling in the longer-term as energy efficiency rises, according to the International Energy Agency.
Gold too is on the rise as Portugal's credit rating was cut by two levels to A1 by Moody's due to concerns about its debt situation. Investors are once again concerned about Europe's sovereign debt crisis and have turned to the yellow metal as a safe haven.
At 0755 ET, Brent crude is up 1.7% at $75.73 a barrel, while light sweet crude is up 0.9% at $75.64, and natural gas is up 0.3% at $4.40 a million British thermal units.
Gold is up 0.7% at $1,206.70 an ounce, while silver is up 0.6% at $18.03 an ounce, and copper is down 0.4% at $2.99 a pound.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency reported that global demand for energy is likely to fall next year as growth in industrial countries is seen to remain sluggish. While the IEA anticipates sees demand growth rising 2.1% this year to average 86.5 million a barrel, that pace will fall in 2011 in part due to increased energy efficiency.
BP plc ( BP ) is up nearly 2% pre-market on the NYSE as the company said it placed a new cap on its leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico.
In the mining sector, giants including BHP Billiton Ltd ( BHP ), and Anglo American plc ( AAL ) are down on concerns that China's plan to rein in real estate speculation will reduce demand for metals used in pipes and wires for construction.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
Oil is on the rise in early morning trade on improved economic sentiment in the United States in particular, with companies such as aluminum giant Alcoa Inc ( AA ) posting better-than-expected earnings results. In the mining sector, giants including BHP Billiton Ltd ( BHP ), and Anglo American plc ( AAL ) are down on concerns that China's plan to rein in real estate speculation will reduce demand for metals used in pipes and wires for construction. Gold too is on the rise as Portugal's credit rating was cut by two levels to A1 by Moody's due to concerns about its debt situation.
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Oil is on the rise in early morning trade on improved economic sentiment in the United States in particular, with companies such as aluminum giant Alcoa Inc ( AA ) posting better-than-expected earnings results. In the mining sector, giants including BHP Billiton Ltd ( BHP ), and Anglo American plc ( AAL ) are down on concerns that China's plan to rein in real estate speculation will reduce demand for metals used in pipes and wires for construction. Still, global demand for oil is seen falling in the longer-term as energy efficiency rises, according to the International Energy Agency.
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In the mining sector, giants including BHP Billiton Ltd ( BHP ), and Anglo American plc ( AAL ) are down on concerns that China's plan to rein in real estate speculation will reduce demand for metals used in pipes and wires for construction. Oil is on the rise in early morning trade on improved economic sentiment in the United States in particular, with companies such as aluminum giant Alcoa Inc ( AA ) posting better-than-expected earnings results. Still, global demand for oil is seen falling in the longer-term as energy efficiency rises, according to the International Energy Agency.
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Oil is on the rise in early morning trade on improved economic sentiment in the United States in particular, with companies such as aluminum giant Alcoa Inc ( AA ) posting better-than-expected earnings results. In the mining sector, giants including BHP Billiton Ltd ( BHP ), and Anglo American plc ( AAL ) are down on concerns that China's plan to rein in real estate speculation will reduce demand for metals used in pipes and wires for construction. Gold too is on the rise as Portugal's credit rating was cut by two levels to A1 by Moody's due to concerns about its debt situation.
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1869.0
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2010-07-12 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: DJIA, SPX Futures Slip as Earnings Season Begins
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-djia-spx-futures-slip-earnings-season-begins-2010-07-12
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nan
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nan
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After logging its best weekly gain since July 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is retreating a bit as we head toward the unofficial start of corporate earnings season. The blue-chip barometer enters this week trading just below resistance at the 10,200 level and its 10-week moving average. Meanwhile, support should manifest near the 10,000 level in the event of a deep decline. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) faces a similar situation, as the index is trading just below resistance at the 1,080 level and its own 10-week trendline. Support for the SPX should materialize near 1,040 on sharp decline. Heading into the open, futures on the DJIA and the SPX are trading 58 points and 5.8 points below fair value, respectively. Elsewhere, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) has pulled back to its 200-day moving average. The last time the VIX tested this trendline (in June), stocks were sent lower while volatility rebounded sharply. On the plus side, this is expiration week, which has historically been bullish for equities. Furthermore, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will offer the first salvo in fresh round of earnings. Traders should have exposure to both sides of the market, as this could prove to be a very volatile week on Wall Street.
In merger and acquisition news, Aon Corp. ( AON ) will acquire Hewitt Associates Inc. ( HEW ) for $4.9 billion in cash and stock. Aon will pay $25.61 per share in cash and 0.6362 of its own shares for every Hewitt share, valuing HEW shares at $50 - a 41% premium to Friday's close. Aon said it intends to integrate Hewitt with its existing consulting and outsourcing operations and operate the business under the name Aon Hewitt.
Finally, speculation that BP pcl ( BP ) could be sold in pieces or as a whole has the shares up sharply in European trading. The Sunday Times of London said that Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and another firm, believed to be Chevron ( CVX ), have sought U.S. regulatory approval to make a bid worth as much as $150 billion for BP.
Earnings Preview
The Shaw Group Inc. ( SHAW ), Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), CSX Corp. ( CSX ), and Novellus Systems Inc. ( NVLS ) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings report today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar is devoid of reports today, while May's trade balance and June's Treasury budget arrive on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the market will be graced with the weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies, as well as June's retail sales, June's import/export prices, May's business inventories, and the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Inflationary data is on tap for Thursday, with the release of June's producer price index (PPI) and the core PPI reading. Furthermore, weekly initial jobless claims, July's Empire State manufacturing index, June's industrial production/capacity utilization report, and the July Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index are all slated for release. Finally, Friday finishes of a week packed full of data with June's consumer price index ( CPI ), the core CPI, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ) saw 1,035,238 call contracts traded on Friday, compared to 629,630 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.61, while the 21-day moving average slipped to 0.65.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is mixed this morning, as only six of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a gain of 0.06%. In Asia, most markets enjoyed modest gains. However, trading in Japan was weak, as the yen pared losses. The government lost an upper house election, but market players said worries about policy deadlock had been largely priced in. Turning to Europe, shares were bouncing back from lows. Miners lost ground, tracking weaker metals prices, after weekend data showed China's June copper imports fell short of expectations, though overall trade data surprised on the upside. Overseas market information comes to you courtesy of Schaeffer's Daily Bulletin .
Currencies and Commodities
The U.S. dollar is rebounding after the U.K reiterated its third-quarter gross domestic product growth outlook of 0.3%. The news has the dollar higher against the pound, and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.44% at 84.32. Commodities are headed lower due to the rebounding greenback. Specifically, gold futures have slipped $4.00 to $1,205.80 an ounce in London, while crude oil has fallen 36 cents to $75.73 per barrel in electronic trading.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Click here for the new spring issue of SENTIMENT magazine
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Furthermore, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will offer the first salvo in fresh round of earnings. Earnings Preview The Shaw Group Inc. ( SHAW ), Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), CSX Corp. ( CSX ), and Novellus Systems Inc. ( NVLS ) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings report today. After logging its best weekly gain since July 2009, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is retreating a bit as we head toward the unofficial start of corporate earnings season.
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Earnings Preview The Shaw Group Inc. ( SHAW ), Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), CSX Corp. ( CSX ), and Novellus Systems Inc. ( NVLS ) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings report today. Furthermore, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will offer the first salvo in fresh round of earnings. Finally, Friday finishes of a week packed full of data with June's consumer price index ( CPI ), the core CPI, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July.
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Furthermore, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will offer the first salvo in fresh round of earnings. Earnings Preview The Shaw Group Inc. ( SHAW ), Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), CSX Corp. ( CSX ), and Novellus Systems Inc. ( NVLS ) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings report today. On Wednesday, the market will be graced with the weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies, as well as June's retail sales, June's import/export prices, May's business inventories, and the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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Furthermore, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) will offer the first salvo in fresh round of earnings. Earnings Preview The Shaw Group Inc. ( SHAW ), Alcoa Inc. ( AA ), CSX Corp. ( CSX ), and Novellus Systems Inc. ( NVLS ) are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings report today. Elsewhere, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) faces a similar situation, as the index is trading just below resistance at the 1,080 level and its own 10-week trendline.
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1870.0
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2010-07-09 00:00:00 UTC
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Dividend Market Wrap-Up for July 9 (V, NSC, ACE, NEM, GE, AA, YUM, more)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dividend-market-wrap-july-9-v-nsc-ace-nem-ge-aa-yum-more-2010-07-09
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nan
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nan
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We were happy to see the markets get some of its mojo back this week, but we will still be looking for better volume. .
We pointed out an example in yesterday's late day wrap-up about how the volume during sell-offs continues to be quite a bit larger than the volume on days we see the averages move substantially higher. We refuse to ignore the distribution factor and will not be swayed by market experts that pooh-pooh this trend. Today's NYSE totaled 3.5 Billion shares, way off the 5 Billion number we have been seeing and way off the 6 Billion total during a couple of last week's distribution days.
We continue to monitor the names on our "recommended" list as well as many other names that are in our database. There are some potential names that are getting more attractive from a dividend yield standpoint that we are considering adding, but the list is very short. We will let subscribers know if the changes are made or if we need to trim more names from our narrowing list of favorites.
As for today's action, we saw Wall Street analyst upgrades help push up stocks like Visa ( V ) and Norfolk Southern ( NSC ) . Ace LTD. ( ACE ) ran up on news it will be added to the S&P 500. Commodity plays bounced up with gold stocks making a bit of a comeback after a recent pullback. Shares of Newmont Mining ( NEM ) , Barrick Gold ( ABX ) , and Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ) were all higher.
Looking ahead to next week, we will start to get some of the bigger names reporting results, such as General Electic ( GE ) , Alcoa ( AA ) , Yum Brands ( YUM ) just to name a few. Be sure to check out Dividend.com Premium this weekend for the latest watchlist updates as well.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Looking ahead to next week, we will start to get some of the bigger names reporting results, such as General Electic ( GE ) , Alcoa ( AA ) , Yum Brands ( YUM ) just to name a few. As for today's action, we saw Wall Street analyst upgrades help push up stocks like Visa ( V ) and Norfolk Southern ( NSC ) . Commodity plays bounced up with gold stocks making a bit of a comeback after a recent pullback.
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Looking ahead to next week, we will start to get some of the bigger names reporting results, such as General Electic ( GE ) , Alcoa ( AA ) , Yum Brands ( YUM ) just to name a few. Today's NYSE totaled 3.5 Billion shares, way off the 5 Billion number we have been seeing and way off the 6 Billion total during a couple of last week's distribution days. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Looking ahead to next week, we will start to get some of the bigger names reporting results, such as General Electic ( GE ) , Alcoa ( AA ) , Yum Brands ( YUM ) just to name a few. We pointed out an example in yesterday's late day wrap-up about how the volume during sell-offs continues to be quite a bit larger than the volume on days we see the averages move substantially higher. Today's NYSE totaled 3.5 Billion shares, way off the 5 Billion number we have been seeing and way off the 6 Billion total during a couple of last week's distribution days.
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Looking ahead to next week, we will start to get some of the bigger names reporting results, such as General Electic ( GE ) , Alcoa ( AA ) , Yum Brands ( YUM ) just to name a few. We were happy to see the markets get some of its mojo back this week, but we will still be looking for better volume. We continue to monitor the names on our "recommended" list as well as many other names that are in our database.
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1871.0
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2010-07-09 00:00:00 UTC
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The Best Ideas of the Week
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/best-ideas-week-2010-07-09
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nan
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nan
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Get ready for earnings season . Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) kicks off the fun on Monday, followed by a big slate of blue chips. By the end of next week, we'll have a clear tone in place for the remainder of earnings season.
Before then, let's look back at companies in the news from this past week. Here are some of the most compelling stocks from this week's Street Authority Winners and Losers.
Taseko Mines (AMEX: TGB )
Shares of Taseko Mines have rebounded a bit from Tuesday's sell-off, but as we noted then . Investors may have gone too far in their zeal to unload shares. As we noted, the company's primary active mining site, known as Gibraltar, is probably worth around $4 a share based on projected cash flows -- right around the current share price. So even as the company's promising-yet-troubled second mine, Prosperity, is beset by a daunting local ecological assessment, investors are assigning zero value to it.
That looks to be short-sighted. There's a decent chance the mining venture will get the green light from federal regulators in Ottawa at the end of the summer. If that happens, investors will quickly push shares up, perhaps past the 52-week high of $6.21 as the new mine has even greater potential than the existing mine.
Action to Take --> In a best case scenario, shares could rise +150% to the $10 mark if both mines produce vigorous amounts of copper and lead. Full production wouldn't come until around 2013, so it would take time to hit that target.
Kohl's (NYSE: KSS )
Investors should always maintain a wish list containing great companies that currently appear to be fully-valued. Any time one of these companies gets pulled down on near-term worries, long-term investors should take advantage of that myopia. In recent weeks, we highlightedBest Buy (NYSE: BBY ) and Bed, Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY ) as clear examples. This week, we have another example -- Kohl's. The retailer posted monthly sales that were good -- not great -- and shares took a hit . They're now off roughly -20% in the past few months, which spells B-A-R-G-A-I-N.
Citigroup's Deborah Weinswig sees shares rising from a recent $47 to $68, noting that Kohl's "has a significant opportunity to emerge as a major player in the moderate retail space," adding that "a combination of industry consolidation and company-specific initiatives should enhance both top-line and margin performance at Kohl's." The retailer's annual per share profits have been stuck on the $3 to $4 range during the past four years, but should move past the $4 mark in fiscal (January) 2012 and closer to $5 in the subsequent year if the economy hangs in there and starts to modestly rebound.
Big Five Sporting Goods (Nasdaq: BGFV )
It's tough to buy stocks when the news is bad. But often times, that's the only way to make money. Big Five Sporting Goods, which operates a chain of retail stores primarily in the Western United States, noted that unfavorable weather in May has led to a quarterly shortfall . That bad news is good news for investors not yet in this stock, as it's a rare misstep that has temporarily weakened shares. Yet in the long-term, there is much to like about this retailer's slow-and-steady growth trajectory.
Action to Take --> We recently took a fairly deep look at the company's operations, and found a winning retail formula . Shares traded for $30 back in 2005, but can now be had for around $10. As consumer spending starts to rebound -- which probably won't happen before 2011 -- this could start to be a solid growth story one again. Long-term investors will likely bid shares back up before such an upturn is fully in evidence.
-- David Sterman
David Sterman has worked as an investment analyst for nearly two decades. Most recently, he served as Managing Editor of RealMoney.com, the premium website of TheStreet.com. David has made numerous media appearances over the years, primarily on CNBC and Bloomberg TV, and has a master's degree in management from Georgia Tech. Read More...
Disclosure: Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) kicks off the fun on Monday, followed by a big slate of blue chips. They're now off roughly -20% in the past few months, which spells B-A-R-G-A-I-N. Citigroup's Deborah Weinswig sees shares rising from a recent $47 to $68, noting that Kohl's "has a significant opportunity to emerge as a major player in the moderate retail space," adding that "a combination of industry consolidation and company-specific initiatives should enhance both top-line and margin performance at Kohl's." Big Five Sporting Goods, which operates a chain of retail stores primarily in the Western United States, noted that unfavorable weather in May has led to a quarterly shortfall .
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) kicks off the fun on Monday, followed by a big slate of blue chips. -- David Sterman David Sterman has worked as an investment analyst for nearly two decades. StreetAuthority The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. © Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC.
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) kicks off the fun on Monday, followed by a big slate of blue chips. As we noted, the company's primary active mining site, known as Gibraltar, is probably worth around $4 a share based on projected cash flows -- right around the current share price. They're now off roughly -20% in the past few months, which spells B-A-R-G-A-I-N. Citigroup's Deborah Weinswig sees shares rising from a recent $47 to $68, noting that Kohl's "has a significant opportunity to emerge as a major player in the moderate retail space," adding that "a combination of industry consolidation and company-specific initiatives should enhance both top-line and margin performance at Kohl's."
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Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) kicks off the fun on Monday, followed by a big slate of blue chips. Before then, let's look back at companies in the news from this past week. This week, we have another example -- Kohl's.
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1872.0
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2010-07-08 00:00:00 UTC
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Opening View: DJIA Bulls Tired, But Will Try to Defend 10,000
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opening-view-djia-bulls-tired-will-try-defend-10000-2010-07-08
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nan
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nan
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Thanks to its biggest single-session rally since May 27, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reclaimed the 10,000 level on Wednesday. The DJIA soared roughly 275 points on the session, overcoming its 10-day trendline in the process. Technically, the Dow could find support at the 10K level, with short-term support emerging near 9,900 should selling pressure reemerge. Resistance lingers overhead at 10,200, where the venerable average's 10-week moving average resides. As for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), the broad-market index closed a hair above 1,060 yesterday, and could find support in the area, with 1,040 providing a backstop should the bears regain control today. Overhead, the SPX is facing resistance near 1,080, which is home to its declining 10-week trendline. Heading into the open, Wall Street appears to still be digesting Wednesday's impressive rally, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading essentially flat compared to fair value. Finally, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) retreated from the round-number 30 level yesterday, breaching former support in the 27-28 region. A continued advance from the SPX could send the VIX down for a test of its June lows near the 23-24 area.
In equity news, Limited Brands Inc. ( LTD ) reported that its June same-store sales rose 6%. Analysts were expecting a rise of 3.2%, according to Thomson Reuters. Net sales for the month increased to $965.4 million from $891.8 million last year.
Finally, JPMorgan lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook for aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). The brokerage firm cited lower-than-expected aluminum prices. In a research note, analyst Michael Gambardella said he expects Alcoa to earn 10 cents per share for the latest quarter, down from his prior forecast for a profit of 15 cents per share. According to Thomson Reuters , the consensus is looking for second-quarter earnings of 12 cents per share from Alcoa.
Earnings Preview
International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ) is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com for more news as it breaks.
Economic Calendar
The weekly report on U.S jobless claims and May's consumer credit report will arrive today, and we round out the week tomorrow with May's wholesale inventories.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ) saw 1,095,899 call contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 570,560 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.52, while the 21-day moving average slipped to 0.66.
**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**
Every morning, our research staff analyzes the prior day and the overnight markets, and monitors the morning wires to give you an accurate preview of the day to come. If you enjoyed today's edition of Opening View, sign up here for free daily delivery, straight to your inbox, before the opening bell.
Overseas Trading
Overseas trading looks solid this morning, as eight of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a gain of 0.87%. In Asia, regional indexes were bolstered by optimism surrounding the coming earnings season. Australian stocks, in particular, were bolstered by a stronger-than-expected June employment report. Emerging details for European banking stress tests are providing rally fuel across the pond this morning, as regional indexes are broadly higher in the euro zone. Furthermore, the Bank of England left its key lending rate unchanged at a record low 0.5%, and indicated that it was in no hurry to restart its 200 billion pound asset purchase program. Overseas market information comes to you courtesy of Schaeffer's Daily Bulletin .
Currencies and Commodities
The U.S. dollar pulled back amid yesterday's equity love fest, but the greenback has once again found support in Asian trading overnight, rising against the euro, but slipping a bit against the yen. At last check, the U.S. Dollar Index was up 0.14% at 83.94. In commodities, gold futures are hovering just above breakeven, gaining 70 cents to trade at $1,199.60 an ounce in London. Finally, crude prices are poised to continue yesterday's advance, with the lead futures contract up 69 cents at $74.76 per barrel.
Unusual Put and Call Activity:
For an explanation of how to use this information, check out our Education Center topics on Option Volume and Open Interest Configurations .
Click here for the new spring issue of SENTIMENT magazine
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized reproduction of any SIR publication is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Finally, JPMorgan lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook for aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). Heading into the open, Wall Street appears to still be digesting Wednesday's impressive rally, as futures on the DJIA and SPX are trading essentially flat compared to fair value. Emerging details for European banking stress tests are providing rally fuel across the pond this morning, as regional indexes are broadly higher in the euro zone.
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Finally, JPMorgan lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook for aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). Earnings Preview International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ) is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report today. Market Statistics Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange ( CBOE ) saw 1,095,899 call contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 570,560 put contracts.
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Finally, JPMorgan lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook for aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). As for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), the broad-market index closed a hair above 1,060 yesterday, and could find support in the area, with 1,040 providing a backstop should the bears regain control today. In a research note, analyst Michael Gambardella said he expects Alcoa to earn 10 cents per share for the latest quarter, down from his prior forecast for a profit of 15 cents per share.
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Finally, JPMorgan lowered its second-quarter earnings outlook for aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. ( AA ). As for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), the broad-market index closed a hair above 1,060 yesterday, and could find support in the area, with 1,040 providing a backstop should the bears regain control today. Earnings Preview International Speedway Corp. ( ISCA ) is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report today.
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1873.0
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2010-07-06 00:00:00 UTC
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Ready for Risk? Try These Leveraged ETFs
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/ready-for-risk-try-these-leveraged-etfs
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nan
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nan
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Leveraged ETFs are one of the most controversial trading instruments to be introduced in recent years.
Many financial experts criticize leveraged ETFs as being too complicated and too risky for the retail investor . But leveraged ETFs are some of the professional trader's favorite tools -- and who doesn't want to be on the same side as the smart money?
Let's strip away all the commentary and criticism to explain exactly what a leveraged ETF is. Then you can decide for yourself if it's right for your portfolio.
Leveraged ETFs are meant to double, or in some cases triple, the daily performance of a particular index . Bearish leveraged ETFs attempt to deliver two or three times the inverse of the daily performance.
The way these ETFs accomplish their objectives is a big part of the controversy. They usually don't own or short stocks. Instead, they use options, swaps and other derivatives to deliver outsized returns.
Because leveraged ETFs are bundles of derivatives, investors cannot buy and hold them the way they do plain vanilla ETFs. Derivatives have a time value portion that decays as each day goes by. And because the leveraged ETF portfolio needs to be constantly rebalanced, expenses can really eat into investor returns. In fact, there are documented examples on the SEC web site of a leveraged ETF that produced negative returns even when the index it tracks moved up.
That's the bad news.
The good news is that when used properly, meaning over short-term time frames, leveraged ETFs can be a great tool for nimble investors who want to generate some quick profits. With that in mind, let's have a look at some of the most popular sector-specific leveraged ETFs.
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares ( FAS ) & Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares ( FAZ )
Even if you're not intimately familiar with leveraged ETFs, you've probably already heard about FAS and FAZ. Both ETFs track the Wilshire 1000 Financial Services Index and both ETFs were front and center during the financial crisis that started in 2008.
FAS has an expense ratio of 0.85% and FAZ expenses check in at 0.95%, meaning neither are cheap by the standards of traditional ETFs. But both ETFs are highly liquid , averaging daily volume of about 77 million shares between the two of them.
Here's a great historical example of how powerful or problematic these ETFs can be: When the financial crisis reached its apex in late 2008, FAZ gained 65% from November 5 to November 18, while FAS lost 45% over the same period.
Ultra Oil & Gas Proshares ( DIG ) & ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF ( DUG )
Got a feeling that big things are afoot in the energy patch? Then DIG and DUG are worth examining. Both ETFs track the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index, which is home to major oil companies like Chevron ( CVX ) and Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) as well as some smaller, more obscure names. In total, the index is home to 92 stocks.
DIG and DUG are double leveraged ETFs, meaning that if the Oil & Gas Index moves 2% on a particular day, these ETFs should each move roughly 4%. Like FAS and FAZ, DIG and DUG are not cheap to own, with expense ratios of 0.95%.
The volatility that is seemingly always present in the energy sector can really drive some remarkable returns in short order with these ETFs. It would not be out of the realm of possibility to easily make 10%-15% in a single week with either DIG or DUG, and returns like that are just too compelling to ignore.
It may seem like ages ago, but in July of 2008, oil traded at $147 barrel before starting a precipitous decline. DIG lost -35% in 45 days, but DUG booked a 45% gain over the same period. An average gain of 1% per day is nothing to scoff at.
And if you're feeling particularly bold about the energy sector, try the Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares ( ERX ) or its bearish partner, Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares ( ERY ) .
Ultra Basic Materials ProShares ( UYM ) & UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares ETF ( SMN )
If you can stomach the volatility of energy stocks, then you may want to check out the materials sector as well. The phrase "high beta " definitely applies to many of the most well-known materials names. UYM is essentially the leveraged counterpart to the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials ETF ( IYM ), which holds well-known stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) and Newmont Mining ( NEM ).
UYM and SMN should deliver twice the daily performance of the materials index tracked by IYM. Both UYM and SMN have expense ratios of 0.95%, similar to other leveraged ETFs we've highlighted.
Materials stocks are known to be quite volatile, so be warned that UYM and SMN are going to ratchet up your risk profile. But the potential exists to garner some robust gains in short time frames.
Ultra Semiconductors ProShares ( USD ) & UltraShort Semiconductor ProShares ( SSG )
If you're bullish on stocks like Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and Texas Instruments ( TXM ), USD is the way to go. In fact, USD actually holds positions in those stocks and several other chip makers, but also uses the same techniques as other leveraged ETFs to amplify returns.
Technology stocks aren't as volatile as energy or materials names, but the tech sector is one of the most widely followed industry groups in the market, meaning both USD and SSG can offer astute investors tidy returns. For example, in the two week period from April 15, 2010 to May 2, 2010, USD plunged an astounding 25%, but SSG soared 19%.
The ETFs we've explored here are a just a smattering of the leveraged ETFs currently on the market. There are also leveraged bullish and bearish ETFs that track the broader tech group, real estate stocks and consumer services names.
Approach all leveraged ETFs with caution. If you remember to keep your holding periods short, you may be able to lock in some exceptional gains.
InvestingAnswers
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Basic Materials ETF ( IYM ), which holds well-known stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) and Newmont Mining ( NEM ). The good news is that when used properly, meaning over short-term time frames, leveraged ETFs can be a great tool for nimble investors who want to generate some quick profits. Technology stocks aren't as volatile as energy or materials names, but the tech sector is one of the most widely followed industry groups in the market, meaning both USD and SSG can offer astute investors tidy returns.
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Basic Materials ETF ( IYM ), which holds well-known stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) and Newmont Mining ( NEM ). Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares ( FAS ) & Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares ( FAZ ) Even if you're not intimately familiar with leveraged ETFs, you've probably already heard about FAS and FAZ. Ultra Oil & Gas Proshares ( DIG ) & ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF ( DUG ) Got a feeling that big things are afoot in the energy patch?
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Basic Materials ETF ( IYM ), which holds well-known stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) and Newmont Mining ( NEM ). Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares ( FAS ) & Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares ( FAZ ) Even if you're not intimately familiar with leveraged ETFs, you've probably already heard about FAS and FAZ. DIG and DUG are double leveraged ETFs, meaning that if the Oil & Gas Index moves 2% on a particular day, these ETFs should each move roughly 4%.
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Basic Materials ETF ( IYM ), which holds well-known stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) and Newmont Mining ( NEM ). Ultra Basic Materials ProShares ( UYM ) & UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares ETF ( SMN ) If you can stomach the volatility of energy stocks, then you may want to check out the materials sector as well. UYM and SMN should deliver twice the daily performance of the materials index tracked by IYM.
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1874.0
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2010-06-22 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa’s Target and Estimates Lowered at Goldman Sachs (AA)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoas-target-and-estimates-lowered-goldman-sachs-aa-2010-06-22
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nan
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nan
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates cut on Tuesday by analysts at Goldman Sachs.
The firm lowered its target for AA to $14, which would represent a 19% upside to the stock's Monday closing price of $11.72. Goldman also lowered its earnings estimates for the company, citing lower expected aluminum prices, and maintained its "Neutral" rating.
Alcoa shares rose 7 cents, or +0.6%, in premarket trading Tuesday.
The Bottom Line
We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. The company has a dividend yield of 1.02%, based on last night's closing stock price of $11.72. The stock has technical support in the $10 price area. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $13-$14 price levels. We are watching the shares closely, but would remain on the sidelines for now.
Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates cut on Tuesday by analysts at Goldman Sachs. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. The firm lowered its target for AA to $14, which would represent a 19% upside to the stock's Monday closing price of $11.72.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates cut on Tuesday by analysts at Goldman Sachs. The firm lowered its target for AA to $14, which would represent a 19% upside to the stock's Monday closing price of $11.72. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates cut on Tuesday by analysts at Goldman Sachs. The firm lowered its target for AA to $14, which would represent a 19% upside to the stock's Monday closing price of $11.72. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates cut on Tuesday by analysts at Goldman Sachs. The firm lowered its target for AA to $14, which would represent a 19% upside to the stock's Monday closing price of $11.72. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11.
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1875.0
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2010-06-22 00:00:00 UTC
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Euphoria Fades, but this China Play is for Real
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/euphoria-fades-china-play-real-2010-06-22
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nan
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nan
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By the end of Monday's trading, investors began to question whether China will really follow through with plans to boost its currency . Earlier in the day, we opined that change is coming, albeit more slowly than many would like.
Even after the dust settled and many China-related stocks gave back their gains, shares of metals makers - especially aluminum producers - held onto sharp advances. Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday, and were holding most of those gains in Tuesday trading. For both of these firms, investors need to brace for some short-term pain but real long-term gains.
A Tough Start to Earnings Season
Alcoa, which always kicks off earnings season , will likely set a somber tone. Analysts have been lowering their second-quarter profit forecast from $0.28 to $0.16 during the past few weeks, and that still looks too high. Spot pricing for aluminum has been steadily dropping, and that could push Alcoa's per-share profits closer to the $0.10 mark. In a similar vein, Century Aluminum may also be on track to miss analysts' second-quarter forecasts when they are released later in July. That's why share prices have been in freefall for these aluminum producers prior to Monday's China-related spike.
The weakening outlook is due to a global aluminum glut. The London Metals Exchange ( LME ) has been carrying about 4.5 million tons in its inventory. But Chinese inventories have doubled in the last six months to around 500,000 tons. Taken together, those two locales carried more than five million tons on hand, an industry record. (Inventories have since fallen four straight weeks and now stand at about 4.97 million tons). Prior to the economic slowdown, there were typically about one million tons of aluminum in inventory.
And with so much inventory on hand, spot pricing for aluminum has been falling sharply, from $1.11 a pound in late April to a recent $0.88.
As that analysis shows, it is the increase in Chinese inventories that has made all the difference. And that factor is likely to reverse as the yuan slowly builds strength. Even before any move in the yuan, a number of Chinese producers are said to be operating at negative cash costs (which means that their operating expenses are higher than the sales prices they can get for smelted aluminum). While firms such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum operate much more inexpensively (thanks to better vertical integration and smelters in regions where power is cheap), they had to give up profits as their Chinese rivals ramped up output.
Energy is expensive in China. And Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that the nation's energy resources shouldn't be frittered away on money-losing industries. So even though a stronger yuan will lower the cost of imported oil and gas, it won't be enough to turn these money losers into money makers. Which is why many analysts think China will start to curtail aluminum production.
Action to Take --> As noted earlier, aluminum now fetches less than $0.90 a pound. Some of these money-losing Chinese smelters are likely going off-line as we speak. Aluminum would have to move back up above $1.05 a pound before production re-starts. Yet right now, analysts are tweaking their models to account for $0.90 aluminum. Goldman Sachs, for example, just cut its 2011 EPS forecast for Alcoa from $1.20 to $1.05. (As a point of context, Alcoa earned an average of $2.50 a share from 2005 through 2007).
On the upcoming earnings reports, look for estimates to fall to reflect a sobering pricing outlook. Ironically, that lowered view will be arriving just as the changing industry dynamics should enable pricing to rise back up. So wait for these stocks to digest the bad news, and then pounce. Alco is scheduled to report quarterly results on July 12.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
StreetAuthority
Disclosure: David Sterman owns shares of Neither StreetAuthority and LCC nor the editor hold positions in any securities mentioned in this report..
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday, and were holding most of those gains in Tuesday trading. Even after the dust settled and many China-related stocks gave back their gains, shares of metals makers - especially aluminum producers - held onto sharp advances. While firms such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum operate much more inexpensively (thanks to better vertical integration and smelters in regions where power is cheap), they had to give up profits as their Chinese rivals ramped up output.
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Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday, and were holding most of those gains in Tuesday trading. Even after the dust settled and many China-related stocks gave back their gains, shares of metals makers - especially aluminum producers - held onto sharp advances. That's why share prices have been in freefall for these aluminum producers prior to Monday's China-related spike.
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Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday, and were holding most of those gains in Tuesday trading. Even before any move in the yuan, a number of Chinese producers are said to be operating at negative cash costs (which means that their operating expenses are higher than the sales prices they can get for smelted aluminum). While firms such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum operate much more inexpensively (thanks to better vertical integration and smelters in regions where power is cheap), they had to give up profits as their Chinese rivals ramped up output.
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Both Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) rose more than +10% on intra-day basis on Monday, and were holding most of those gains in Tuesday trading. Analysts have been lowering their second-quarter profit forecast from $0.28 to $0.16 during the past few weeks, and that still looks too high. Aluminum would have to move back up above $1.05 a pound before production re-starts.
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1876.0
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2010-06-21 00:00:00 UTC
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Monday Winners: Century Aluminum, United Micro and Perfect World
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/monday-winners-century-aluminum-united-micro-and-perfect-world-2010-06-21
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nan
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nan
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Among the biggest winners in Monday's early trading are Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) , United Micro (NYSE: UMC ) and Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD ) .
Aluminum Stocks love a Stronger Yuan
A wide range of aluminum and steel stocks are rallying this morning, led by a +11% gain for Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) . Many of these firms, such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , POSCO (NYSE: PKX ) or U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) have struggled to raise prices while Chinese rivals flooded the market with lower cost products. If China indeed is set to finally strengthen its currency , other Asian countries may follow suit. And that would enable these aluminum and steel producers to raise prices or take market share .
Action to Take --> A stronger Yuan helps, but a balanced and stable growing global economy is the real panacea for this group, as that would allow for improved pricing and profits. It's too soon to know if the currency moves will aid the results of these firms, so it's not clear if there is stronger near-term upside for these rallying names.
-------------------------------------
A Foundry bags New Business
Shares of United Micro (NYSE: UMC ) are up more than +6% this morning after the Taiwan-based company announced a joint venture to co-develop a low-power chip with Japan's Elpida. By pooling these resources, these firms can trim R&D costs while staying on the cutting edge. And UMC, the world's second-largest maker of chips, also benefits by securing production rights to the new chip they plan to co-develop. Chip foundries can be hugely profitable when kept busy.
Just a week ago, UMC announced that second-quarter sales would be strong, and added that its foundries should be quite busy for the rest of the year as well. That should enable the company to post a sharp +300% gain in profits this year.
Action to Take --> Analysts expect profits to rise another +20% in 2011 to around $0.25 a share. Yet those forecasts now look too conservative in light of recent announcements. (Investors should note that UMC has earned more than $0.20 a share only once in any fiscal year during the past decade). The company should post record profits next year, but at around 10 to 11 times likely upward-revised forecasts, shares may have limited potential appreciation from here - at least until we know more about the company's chip development plans with Elpida. This is a name that is suitable for further research, but know that chip foundries rarely garner high price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) multiples.
-------------------------------------
Perfect World: A Possible Yuan Play
Chinese video gaming stocks have taken it on the chin this year, but investors may start to warm up to the sector once again. A stronger Yuan would lead to higher results in terms of dollars, so look for analysts to boost their profit forecasts if and when China actually starts to strengthen its currency.
Shares of Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD ) are up +8.5% on that sentiment. Right now, analysts think Perfect World can earn close to $4 a share in 2011. But a stronger Yuan may lift that view closer to $4.25 - all other things being equal. Shares trade at just six times that figure.
Action to Take --> Analysts will likely hold off boosting profit forecasts until it becomes clear that China will let its currency rise. Once that process is underway, expect a solid boost in estimates for all China-based consumers that sell into the Chinese domestic market. Perfect World is just one of many stocks that hold the dual support of low P/Es and rising profits.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
StreetAuthority
Disclosure: David Sterman does not own shares of any security mentioned in this article.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
© Copyright 2001-2010 StreetAuthority, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Many of these firms, such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , POSCO (NYSE: PKX ) or U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) have struggled to raise prices while Chinese rivals flooded the market with lower cost products. Action to Take --> A stronger Yuan helps, but a balanced and stable growing global economy is the real panacea for this group, as that would allow for improved pricing and profits. ------------------------------------- A Foundry bags New Business Shares of United Micro (NYSE: UMC ) are up more than +6% this morning after the Taiwan-based company announced a joint venture to co-develop a low-power chip with Japan's Elpida.
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Many of these firms, such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , POSCO (NYSE: PKX ) or U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) have struggled to raise prices while Chinese rivals flooded the market with lower cost products. Among the biggest winners in Monday's early trading are Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) , United Micro (NYSE: UMC ) and Perfect World (Nasdaq: PWRD ) . Aluminum Stocks love a Stronger Yuan A wide range of aluminum and steel stocks are rallying this morning, led by a +11% gain for Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) .
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Many of these firms, such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , POSCO (NYSE: PKX ) or U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) have struggled to raise prices while Chinese rivals flooded the market with lower cost products. Aluminum Stocks love a Stronger Yuan A wide range of aluminum and steel stocks are rallying this morning, led by a +11% gain for Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX ) . ------------------------------------- A Foundry bags New Business Shares of United Micro (NYSE: UMC ) are up more than +6% this morning after the Taiwan-based company announced a joint venture to co-develop a low-power chip with Japan's Elpida.
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Many of these firms, such as Alcoa (NYSE: AA ) , POSCO (NYSE: PKX ) or U.S. Steel (NYSE: X ) have struggled to raise prices while Chinese rivals flooded the market with lower cost products. ------------------------------------- A Foundry bags New Business Shares of United Micro (NYSE: UMC ) are up more than +6% this morning after the Taiwan-based company announced a joint venture to co-develop a low-power chip with Japan's Elpida. Action to Take --> Analysts expect profits to rise another +20% in 2011 to around $0.25 a share.
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1877.0
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2010-06-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Don't Buy Stocks Today
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dont-buy-stocks-today-2010-06-11
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nan
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nan
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U.S. stock markets soared yesterday, boosted by better economic news from China, a decision by the Bank of England to hold current rates, positive data from Australia, and a stronger euro. Even Spain chimed in with a successful bond offering. And there was positive domestic news in the form of better-than-expected weekly job numbers.
According to the Wall Street Journal, traders said that, "they are focused more broadly on global growth, including developments in other major regions that seem to be suffering little ripple effect from Europe's struggles."
International companies benefitted from the round of buying, with Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ), up 5.5%, leading the Dow's rush higher. American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ) gained 5.04%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) gained 4.77%, and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) rose 4.17%.
Energy stocks were higher yesterday, after being hammered over the last week. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC ) rose 12.4%, Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI ) gained 10.7%, and Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO ) was up 7.4%. BP plc (NYSE: BP ) jumped 12.26%.
The euro rose to 1.21 against the greenback. This was the first time in over a week that it traded at that level. And the U.S. Dollar Index fell 1%.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) jumped 273 points to 10,173, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) rose 31 points to 1,087, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) rose 60, closing at 2,219.
The NYSE traded 1.3 billion shares with advancers topping decliners by over 5.5-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 628 million shares and advancers outnumbered decliners by 5-to-1.
Crude oil for July delivery gained $1.10 at $75.48 a barrel, and the Energy Select Setor SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) gained $2.58, closing at $53.99.
June gold declined $7.70, settling at $1,220.80 an ounce. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) rose $2.57 to $175.
What the Markets Are Saying
After four consecutive days of losses, we should not be surprised by yesterday's rally from a major support zone that was marked by double reversals on the Dow Industrials and three reversals from the S&P 500.
With yesterday's huge pop, our internal indicators gave a volley of short-term buy signals. However, with the long-term trend neutral to down, and close to a bearish signal, and both the intermediate- and short-term trends still down, it's difficult to get very bullish.
Even though yesterday's reactive rally was supported by strong breadth, volume was low. We've seen this low upside/strong downside volume picture since early March, and the overall results speak for themselves.
The other troublesome trading pattern is the market's frenetic reaction to news -- both good and bad. This tells us that stocks are not held in strong hands, and that the motivation for both buyers and sellers is fear -- fear to lose on bad news and fear to miss the move higher on good news.
Unless someone somewhere comes up with a disaster someplace, we should expect a strong opening with increased buying by speculators. But the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are approaching some formidable resistance in the form of the 20- and 200-day moving averages, as well as deep zones of sellers. It would take an extremely optimistic trader to go into the weekend holding purchases made at Thursday's prices through a weekend of potentially horrid news.
I'll still wait this out until the technical picture is less murky.
Today's Trading Landscape
There are no significant earnings reports due today.
Economic reports due: retail sales (the consensus expects 0.4%, 0.2% ex-autos), consumer sentiment (the consensus expects 74), and business inventories (the consensus expects 0.5%).
If you have questions or comments for Sam Collins, please e-mail him at samailc@cox.net .
Related Articles:
Transport Some Profits to Your Portfolio
Writing Covered Calls: Getting Started
So, You Think You Know How to Trade the VIX?
How to Double Your Money Every Week in 2010
Are you doubling your money with every trade you make? You should be! This 2010 trading guide will show you how, and it also details two money-doubling options trades to get you started. Download your FREE copy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ) gained 5.04%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) gained 4.77%, and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) rose 4.17%. U.S. stock markets soared yesterday, boosted by better economic news from China, a decision by the Bank of England to hold current rates, positive data from Australia, and a stronger euro. According to the Wall Street Journal, traders said that, "they are focused more broadly on global growth, including developments in other major regions that seem to be suffering little ripple effect from Europe's struggles."
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American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ) gained 5.04%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) gained 4.77%, and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) rose 4.17%. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) jumped 273 points to 10,173, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) rose 31 points to 1,087, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) rose 60, closing at 2,219. This tells us that stocks are not held in strong hands, and that the motivation for both buyers and sellers is fear -- fear to lose on bad news and fear to miss the move higher on good news.
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American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ) gained 5.04%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) gained 4.77%, and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) rose 4.17%. Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC ) rose 12.4%, Baker Hughes Incorporated (NYSE: BHI ) gained 10.7%, and Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO ) was up 7.4%. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) jumped 273 points to 10,173, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) rose 31 points to 1,087, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) rose 60, closing at 2,219.
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American Express Company (NYSE: AXP ) gained 5.04%, Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX ) gained 4.77%, and Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) rose 4.17%. The NYSE traded 1.3 billion shares with advancers topping decliners by over 5.5-to-1. Economic reports due: retail sales (the consensus expects 0.4%, 0.2% ex-autos), consumer sentiment (the consensus expects 74), and business inventories (the consensus expects 0.5%).
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1878.0
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2010-06-07 00:00:00 UTC
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Fear Grips the Market
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/fear-grips-market-2010-06-07
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nan
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nan
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On Friday, the stock market fell sharply on two major headlines: Hungary may be the latest contagion victim and a serious economic problem for the rest of Europe, and the U.S. jobs report did not meet expectations.
Stocks entered Friday with two successful days and a gain for the week for the S&P 500 ( SPX ) of more than 1%. But heavy selling throughout Friday ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) off 3.15%, the S&P 500 down 3.44%, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) falling 3.64% for the day. The S&P 500 ended the week with a loss of more than 2%.
The Dow's worst performer was Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT ), off 5.5%. American Express Company ( AXP ) fell 5.06%, The Boeing Company ( BA ) was down 4.68%, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 4.57%, and General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ) lost 4.5%. The Dow fell 2% for the week, and closed below 10,000 for the second time in two weeks.
Of the two reports that shocked the market, the real surprise was that Hungarian officials had said that economic conditions were so bad there that a default was not out of the question. And there was talk of yet another possible bailout by the European Union ( EU ) with perhaps more former eastern-zone countries in the wings. In response, the euro closed at a four-year low of 1.1956.
Even though the jobs numbers were not as shocking as the newest EU problem, the report still contributed to the losses since many had been encouraged by the White House's recent optimism over jobs and the economy. But non-farm payrolls, which were expected to show an increase of 500,000, instead increased by only 431,000.
The Wall Street Journal, in its summary of Friday's sell-off opined, "In part, Friday's market gyrations were caused by a hasty reassessment of a theme many traders had bet on recently -- that the U.S. is a relatively safe place to invest at a time when other countries are still struggling." But the jobs numbers and the impact of the European situation make everyone reassess the possibility of a double-dip recession.
At the close, the Dow fell 323 points to 9,932, the S&P 500 lost 38 points to 1,065, and the Nasdaq was down 84 points to 2,219.
The NYSE traded 1.6 billion shares with decliners ahead of advancers by more than 9-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 688 million shares, and decliners there were ahead by almost 8-to-1.
July delivery crude oil fell $3.10 to close at $71.51 a barrel, primarily on the sharp drop of the euro versus the greenback. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE ) fell $1.88, closing at $51.55.
August gold rose $7.70 to $1,217.70 an ounce, but the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) lost 4.15 points, closing at 169.09.
What the Markets Are Saying
In the April 20 Daily Market Outlook , just four days before the market topped, I said, "With internal and sentiment indicators telling us that the market is now dangerously overbought and the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy triggering a sell, it is time to go to cash on all rallies. It doesn't get much better than this, so it will most likely get worse." I was correct; however, I had no idea that we were facing the worst May since 1940.
So I think it important to emphasize that it wasn't just the trite little saying that blindly encourages some market-timers to liquidate their stock holdings on May 1 that triggered my above recommendation. Despite the method's positive record, it would be unwise to counsel anyone to take an all-or-none approach based on a single strategy.
Instead it was our well-seasoned technical signals, both the internal and sentiment indicators, as well as chart analysis together with the May to September negative record that drove me to conclude that this May could be nasty. A "perfect storm" of negative indicators appeared to be descending on the markets. As one friend so generously put it, "It's better to be lucky than smart."
Last week, another friend made an interesting quip concerning an often-repeated Wall Street saying, "The two emotions that move markets are fear and greed." He said, in his experience, there was but one emotion, and that was fear, saying, "Fear is the greatest motivator in any circumstance."
He went on to say that in the stock market it is not greed that drives investors and professional managers to take enormous risks at the top of a market, but fear that they will be left behind. And at market bottoms, it is, of course, fear that even drives long-term investors to liquidate their holdings at the very bottom of a bear market.
Fear has again overcome the stock market with visions of a double-dip recession and contagion in the air. So it is possible that today may start with another early rush to sell, based on Friday's escape to the "traditional investor "safe havens" gold futures and Treasuries.
If the market closes below the February/May lows, we could see a quick plunge to S&P 1,000. But let's not rush into this battle between the bulls and bears. With the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ) up 20% last week, it's time to stand aside until we determine the real winner of this conflict.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: G-III Apparel.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: C&D Technologies, Casella Waste Systems, FuelCell Energy and Pep Boys.
Economic report due: consumer credit (the consensus expects $1 billion).
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Now that the recovery is under way, companies are spending money hand over fist for technology goods and services. And that means big things for these tech stocks. Each one trades for less than $10 a share AND is set to double in the next 12 months. Get their names here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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American Express Company ( AXP ) fell 5.06%, The Boeing Company ( BA ) was down 4.68%, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 4.57%, and General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ) lost 4.5%. On Friday, the stock market fell sharply on two major headlines: Hungary may be the latest contagion victim and a serious economic problem for the rest of Europe, and the U.S. jobs report did not meet expectations. Instead it was our well-seasoned technical signals, both the internal and sentiment indicators, as well as chart analysis together with the May to September negative record that drove me to conclude that this May could be nasty.
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American Express Company ( AXP ) fell 5.06%, The Boeing Company ( BA ) was down 4.68%, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 4.57%, and General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ) lost 4.5%. The NYSE traded 1.6 billion shares with decliners ahead of advancers by more than 9-to-1. August gold rose $7.70 to $1,217.70 an ounce, but the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (NASDAQ: XAU ) lost 4.15 points, closing at 169.09.
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American Express Company ( AXP ) fell 5.06%, The Boeing Company ( BA ) was down 4.68%, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 4.57%, and General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ) lost 4.5%. On Friday, the stock market fell sharply on two major headlines: Hungary may be the latest contagion victim and a serious economic problem for the rest of Europe, and the U.S. jobs report did not meet expectations. What the Markets Are Saying In the April 20 Daily Market Outlook , just four days before the market topped, I said, "With internal and sentiment indicators telling us that the market is now dangerously overbought and the 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy triggering a sell, it is time to go to cash on all rallies.
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American Express Company ( AXP ) fell 5.06%, The Boeing Company ( BA ) was down 4.68%, Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA ) fell 4.57%, and General Electric Company (NYSE: GE ) lost 4.5%. The Dow fell 2% for the week, and closed below 10,000 for the second time in two weeks. Last week, another friend made an interesting quip concerning an often-repeated Wall Street saying, "The two emotions that move markets are fear and greed."
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1879.0
|
2010-05-20 00:00:00 UTC
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Trader looks to ride Horsehead lower
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trader-looks-ride-horsehead-lower-2010-05-20
|
nan
|
nan
|
Horsehead Holding is plunging, and one investor is positioning for further downside.
optionMONSTER's Depth Charge tracking system detected the purchase of 2,000 June 10 puts for $0.95 and the sale of an existing position in 2,000 May 12.50 puts for $2.65, resulting in a net credit of $1.70. The trade pushed total options volume in the industrial-metals company to 25 times greater than average.
ZINC fell 5.02 percent to $10.02 and is down 14 percent in the last month. The producer of zinc and nickel swung to a profit on May 10 after revenue more than tripled amid improved demand.
The shares attempted to rally on the news but hit resistance around $12 and are now consolidating below their 50- and 200-day moving averages (purple and blue lines respectively), which some chart watchers may consider a bearish sign. The weakness resembles similar trends in companies such as Alcoa and U.S. Steel.
Yesterday's put-roll trade allowed the investor to take profits while extending a bearish position on ZINC by an additional month. Such trades are common in the final week before options expiration.
Puts accounted for 94 percent of the options activity in the stock yesterday.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright © 2010 OptionMonster® Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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The producer of zinc and nickel swung to a profit on May 10 after revenue more than tripled amid improved demand. The shares attempted to rally on the news but hit resistance around $12 and are now consolidating below their 50- and 200-day moving averages (purple and blue lines respectively), which some chart watchers may consider a bearish sign. Yesterday's put-roll trade allowed the investor to take profits while extending a bearish position on ZINC by an additional month.
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Yesterday's put-roll trade allowed the investor to take profits while extending a bearish position on ZINC by an additional month. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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optionMONSTER's Depth Charge tracking system detected the purchase of 2,000 June 10 puts for $0.95 and the sale of an existing position in 2,000 May 12.50 puts for $2.65, resulting in a net credit of $1.70. The trade pushed total options volume in the industrial-metals company to 25 times greater than average. Yesterday's put-roll trade allowed the investor to take profits while extending a bearish position on ZINC by an additional month.
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Horsehead Holding is plunging, and one investor is positioning for further downside. Yesterday's put-roll trade allowed the investor to take profits while extending a bearish position on ZINC by an additional month. Puts accounted for 94 percent of the options activity in the stock yesterday.
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1880.0
|
2010-05-11 00:00:00 UTC
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Alcoa’s Price Target, Estimates Cut at Deutsche Bank (AA)
|
AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alcoas-price-target-estimates-cut-deutsche-bank-aa-2010-05-11
|
nan
|
nan
|
Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates lowered on Tuesday by analysts at Deutsche Bank.
The firm slashed its price target on AA shares, which had closed at $12.59 on Monday, to $15.50 from $18. Deutsche maintained its "Hold" rating on the stock, however.
Additionally, the analyst lowered its 2010 and 2011 EPS forecasts by 54% and 14%, respectively, to reflect essentially flat aluminum pricing, as well as lower volume estimates.
Alcoa shares fell 24 cents, or -1.9%, in premarket trading Tuesday.
The Bottom Line
We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. The company has a dividend yield of .95%, based on last night's closing stock price of $12.59. The stock has technical support in the $11 price area. If the shares can firm up, we see overhead resistance around the $14-$15 price levels. We are watching the shares closely, but would remain on the sidelines for now.
Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) is not recommended at this time, holding a Dividend.com DARS™ Rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars.
Be sure to visit our complete recommended list of the Best Dividend Stocks , as well as a detailed explanation of our ratings system here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Created by Dividend.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates lowered on Tuesday by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11. The firm slashed its price target on AA shares, which had closed at $12.59 on Monday, to $15.50 from $18.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates lowered on Tuesday by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The firm slashed its price target on AA shares, which had closed at $12.59 on Monday, to $15.50 from $18. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates lowered on Tuesday by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The firm slashed its price target on AA shares, which had closed at $12.59 on Monday, to $15.50 from $18. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11.
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Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) saw its price target and earnings estimates lowered on Tuesday by analysts at Deutsche Bank. The firm slashed its price target on AA shares, which had closed at $12.59 on Monday, to $15.50 from $18. The Bottom Line We had removed shares of AA from our "recommended" list July 2, 2008 when the stock traded at $32.11.
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1881.0
|
2010-05-05 00:00:00 UTC
|
Metals ETF draws bearish trade
|
AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-etf-draws-bearish-trade-2010-05-05
|
nan
|
nan
|
Metal stocks have taking a beating in the last two weeks, and now one trader is looking for more downside using the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining exchange-traded fund.
optionMONSTER's Depth Charge tracking system yesterday detected the purchase of 10,000 May 52 puts for $1.86 and the sale of an equal number of May 49 puts for $0.86. This put spread resulted in a net cost of $1.
At the same time, a similar existing position was unwound in the May 56 and May 53 puts, resulting in a credit of $1.81. Rolling the strategy down to a lower strike price allowed the trader to recover $0.81 of premium, while giving exposure to a deeper decline. They now stand to earn 200 percent on the $1 they have at risk if XME closes at or below $49 on expiration.
The fund dropped 4.42 percent to $52.95 and is down 15 percent since mid-April. The sector has been losing momentum following a weak earnings report from Alcoa, concerns about European sovereign debt, and Australia's move to impose a new tax on resource "super profits."
XME had climbed 26 percent between the between the beginning of February and the beginning of April as investors priced in strong economic growth globally.
The trades pushed overall options volume in the fund to nine times greater than average, with puts accounting for 91 percent of the activity.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright © 2010 OptionMonster® Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Rolling the strategy down to a lower strike price allowed the trader to recover $0.81 of premium, while giving exposure to a deeper decline. The sector has been losing momentum following a weak earnings report from Alcoa, concerns about European sovereign debt, and Australia's move to impose a new tax on resource "super profits." The trades pushed overall options volume in the fund to nine times greater than average, with puts accounting for 91 percent of the activity.
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At the same time, a similar existing position was unwound in the May 56 and May 53 puts, resulting in a credit of $1.81. (Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER) The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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optionMONSTER's Depth Charge tracking system yesterday detected the purchase of 10,000 May 52 puts for $1.86 and the sale of an equal number of May 49 puts for $0.86. XME had climbed 26 percent between the between the beginning of February and the beginning of April as investors priced in strong economic growth globally. The trades pushed overall options volume in the fund to nine times greater than average, with puts accounting for 91 percent of the activity.
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Metal stocks have taking a beating in the last two weeks, and now one trader is looking for more downside using the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining exchange-traded fund. At the same time, a similar existing position was unwound in the May 56 and May 53 puts, resulting in a credit of $1.81. They now stand to earn 200 percent on the $1 they have at risk if XME closes at or below $49 on expiration.
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1882.0
|
2010-05-04 00:00:00 UTC
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Commodities Sacked as the Dollar Jumps on European Debt Worries
|
AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/commodities-sacked-dollar-jumps-european-debt-worries-2010-05-04
|
nan
|
nan
|
Commodities downshifted into losses during Tuesday's session as worries about Europe's debt situation helped to strengthen the dollar and, consequently, drive down commodities futures.
Crude for June delivery fell $3.05, or 3.5%, to $83.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In other energy futures, heating oil was off 3.22%, or $0.08, to $2.26 a gallon while natural gas was up 0.25%, or $0.01, to $4.01 per million British thermal units.
Meanwhile, gold for June delivery retreated $14.10, or 1.2%, to $1,169.20 an ounce. In other metals, copper futures fell $0.1, or 3.5%, to $3.16 a pound while silver futures were off 4.70%, or $0.88, to $17.95 a troy ounce.
Oil suffered as U.S. equity markets posted steep declines as investors worried that Greece's debt aid package wouldn't be enough to keep the problem from spreading to other Euro-zone countries.
Also, new data showed that China's manufacturing activity was still higher, but there were hints that the recovery could be losing momentum, MarketWatch reported, citing a HSBC survey.
A pressured Euro caused the dollar to gain in value as investors sought safe haven in the greenback, which in turn pressured gold futures.
In energy stocks, shares of BP plc ( BP ), the oil company responsible for the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, moved higher in mid-day trading after several sessions of losses. The company is attempting to install a valve to stop leaks at the undersea well as it works on a longer-term solution.
BP shares were up 1.12%, to $0.56, to $50.75.
Also, Marathon Oil Corp ( MRO ) said its first quarter profit jumped 62% Tuesday. First-quarter profit rose to $457 million, or $0.64 per share, from $282 million, or $0.40 per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected earnings of $0.44 a share according to Thomson Reuters.
Marathon shares were down 1.15%, or $0.37, to $31.90.
In precious metal shares, the SPDR Gold Trust ( GLD ) was down 1.02%, or $1.18, to $114.55 while the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF ( GDX ) was down 1.66%, or $0.83, to $49.05. The iShares Silver Trust ETF was down $0.86, or 4.67%, to $17.56.
Also, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) slipped 4.6% to $12.54. Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ) dropped 8.3% to $54.09. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. ( FCX ) was down 5.2% to $69.90.
In other commodities, cotton futures declined to a two-week low as the dollar jumped. Cotton for July delivery fell $0.56, or 0.7%, to $0.83 a pound at on ICE Futures.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Also, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) slipped 4.6% to $12.54. In other energy futures, heating oil was off 3.22%, or $0.08, to $2.26 a gallon while natural gas was up 0.25%, or $0.01, to $4.01 per million British thermal units. Oil suffered as U.S. equity markets posted steep declines as investors worried that Greece's debt aid package wouldn't be enough to keep the problem from spreading to other Euro-zone countries.
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Also, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) slipped 4.6% to $12.54. In other metals, copper futures fell $0.1, or 3.5%, to $3.16 a pound while silver futures were off 4.70%, or $0.88, to $17.95 a troy ounce. In other commodities, cotton futures declined to a two-week low as the dollar jumped.
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Also, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) slipped 4.6% to $12.54. In other metals, copper futures fell $0.1, or 3.5%, to $3.16 a pound while silver futures were off 4.70%, or $0.88, to $17.95 a troy ounce. In energy stocks, shares of BP plc ( BP ), the oil company responsible for the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, moved higher in mid-day trading after several sessions of losses.
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Also, Alcoa Inc. ( AA ) slipped 4.6% to $12.54. In other energy futures, heating oil was off 3.22%, or $0.08, to $2.26 a gallon while natural gas was up 0.25%, or $0.01, to $4.01 per million British thermal units. Meanwhile, gold for June delivery retreated $14.10, or 1.2%, to $1,169.20 an ounce.
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1883.0
|
2010-04-28 00:00:00 UTC
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Bulls looking for rebound in Alcoa
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bulls-looking-rebound-alcoa-2010-04-28
|
nan
|
nan
|
Alcoa has returned to a support level from last month, and traders are looking for a bounce.
optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker tracking system detected the purchase of more than 11,000 June 14 calls, most of which priced for $0.49 to $0.54, against open interest of 2,741 contracts. The buying marks a contrast from the previous 20 sessions, when call selling dominated.
AA fell 0.22 percent to $13.41 in midday trading and is down 6 percent in the last month. The aluminum giant's earnings matched estimates the last time it reported results on April 12 although revenue badly missed forecasts.
The results where opposite of the previous release, when revenue surged but higher expenses squeezed profitability. Some analysts have said the trend suggests AA is gaining pricing power as demand improves.
Today's call buyers are looking for a bounce in the shares and need to see a rally of at least 8 percent before they earn a profit.
Traders may expect a rebound because AA is stabilizing around the same $13.40 level they held above last month. The stock is also slightly below its 200-day moving average, which has provided support since July.
Calls account for about three-quarters of the options activity in AA today, although overall volume is about inline with typical levels.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright © 2010 OptionMonster® Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Calls account for about three-quarters of the options activity in AA today, although overall volume is about inline with typical levels. AA fell 0.22 percent to $13.41 in midday trading and is down 6 percent in the last month. Some analysts have said the trend suggests AA is gaining pricing power as demand improves.
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AA fell 0.22 percent to $13.41 in midday trading and is down 6 percent in the last month. Some analysts have said the trend suggests AA is gaining pricing power as demand improves. Traders may expect a rebound because AA is stabilizing around the same $13.40 level they held above last month.
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AA fell 0.22 percent to $13.41 in midday trading and is down 6 percent in the last month. Calls account for about three-quarters of the options activity in AA today, although overall volume is about inline with typical levels. Some analysts have said the trend suggests AA is gaining pricing power as demand improves.
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AA fell 0.22 percent to $13.41 in midday trading and is down 6 percent in the last month. Some analysts have said the trend suggests AA is gaining pricing power as demand improves. Traders may expect a rebound because AA is stabilizing around the same $13.40 level they held above last month.
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1884.0
|
2010-04-14 00:00:00 UTC
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Patient bulls wait for Alcoa to run
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/patient-bulls-wait-alcoa-run-2010-04-14
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nan
|
nan
|
Alcoa seems to be finding support after dropping yesterday, and traders are betting that it will stage a prolonged rally.
optionMONSTER's Heat Seeker tracking system detected the purchase of about 50,000 January 20 calls for $0.43 against open interest of 16,066 contracts. The trade is part of a bullish pattern today in the aluminum giant, which has seen calls bought and puts sold.
AA is up a penny to $14.35 in afternoon trading but is still down 3 percent in the last week. The shares fell after the company's first-quarter revenue came in lighter than expected on April 12. However, earnings beat forecasts.
The results were the opposite of the previous quarter, when revenue crushed forecasts and earnings missed on higher costs. The two reports suggest that AA first experienced stronger demand last year and is now raising prices.
Another potentially bullish indicator is that Monday's weak revenue number wasn't enough to push the stock below $14, which had served as technical resistance in February and the first half of March.
Today's buyers of the January 20 calls are betting that AA will rally more than 42 percent by expiration and take out the high of $17.60 established in January.
Overall options volume in the stock is 44 percent greater than average so far today.
(Chart courtesy of tradeMONSTER)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright © 2010 OptionMonster® Holdings, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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AA is up a penny to $14.35 in afternoon trading but is still down 3 percent in the last week. The two reports suggest that AA first experienced stronger demand last year and is now raising prices. Today's buyers of the January 20 calls are betting that AA will rally more than 42 percent by expiration and take out the high of $17.60 established in January.
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Today's buyers of the January 20 calls are betting that AA will rally more than 42 percent by expiration and take out the high of $17.60 established in January. AA is up a penny to $14.35 in afternoon trading but is still down 3 percent in the last week. The two reports suggest that AA first experienced stronger demand last year and is now raising prices.
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Today's buyers of the January 20 calls are betting that AA will rally more than 42 percent by expiration and take out the high of $17.60 established in January. AA is up a penny to $14.35 in afternoon trading but is still down 3 percent in the last week. The two reports suggest that AA first experienced stronger demand last year and is now raising prices.
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Today's buyers of the January 20 calls are betting that AA will rally more than 42 percent by expiration and take out the high of $17.60 established in January. AA is up a penny to $14.35 in afternoon trading but is still down 3 percent in the last week. The two reports suggest that AA first experienced stronger demand last year and is now raising prices.
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1885.0
|
2010-04-13 00:00:00 UTC
|
Dow Closes Above 11,000! Now What?
|
AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dow-closes-above-11000-now-what-2010-04-13
|
nan
|
nan
|
After several attempts that failed to hold, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) finally closed over 11,000, making it to 11, 005.97. It was the first time since September 2008 that the widely followed index closed above the psychologically important number.
But the S&P 500 ( SPX ) missed its key number of 1,200 by less than a point (intraday) and closed at 1,196.48. However, the broad index did close higher for the sixth time in seven days.
The Dow was helped by an anticipation of better earnings for the 30 blue-chip stocks that make up the index. Alcoa ( AA ), traditionally the first company of the index to report earnings, rose 1.3% in anticipation of a better-than-expected earnings number.
An agreement by the European Union to provide financial aid to Greece of 30 billion euros at below market rates resulted in a stronger euro. But after a deeper loss earlier in the day, the U.S. dollar managed to take back most of the drubbing it received, and it closed with only a 0.4% loss.
At the close, the Dow was up 9 points to 11,006, the S&P 500 gained 2 points at 1,196, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) was up 4 points to 2,458.
Volume on the exchanges was again very light, with the NYSE trading just 975 million shares and the Nasdaq crossing just 541 million shares. On both exchanges, advancers led decliners by about 7-to-6.
Crude oil for May delivery fell 58 cents to $84.34 a barrel, again on higher supply levels despite talk of higher demand from China. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE ) rose 14 cents to $59.97.
April gold ended 50 cents higher at $1,161.60 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index ( XAU ) fell $2.04 to $174.96.
What the Markets Are Saying
Yesterday the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), a key measure of investor nervousness about upcoming market swings, fell 3.5% to 15.58, its lowest settle since July 2007. This index is now indicating unusual complacency, which means that most investors are anticipating a further rise in the stock market. The problem is, however, that when the VIX is this low, it is often a predictor of an imminent correction. (See the April 9 Daily Market Outlook .)
And analysts too are optimistic. Thompson Reuters reports that key analysts are expecting the average Q1 earnings of the S&P 500 to be higher by 36.8% than one year ago. That would be an extraordinary achievement. So are they overreaching?
After the shocker from Alcoa ( AA ), it will be interesting to see if the market can hang onto its gains. The initial report last night showed a loss of 20 cents, but this morning, the company said that with one-time items and discontinued operations, it had a Q1 profit of 10 cents, which was what analysts were expecting. The Wall Street Journal reports, "That's the magic number, and it was in the middle of the range predicted by Wall Street's best and brightest."
The bulls had better hope that the remainder of the week gives them something to smile about from Intel ( INTC ), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ), Bank of America ( BAC ) and Google ( GOOG ). If not, it's going to be a long, cold spring.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include : Fastenal, Infosys and Talbots.
Earnings to be reported after the close: Adtran, CSX Corp., Healthcare Services Group and Intel.
Economic reports due: ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales, international trade (the consensus expects -$39 billion), import and export prices and Redbook.
Related Articles:
Wal-Mart Ready to Break to New Highs
5 Rules of Engagement for Trading Earnings
Big Names Don't Always Make Good Earnings Trades
3 Stocks Under $10 Set to Double
Each stock sells for less than $10 a share and is set to double in the next 12 months. Get their names, plus the four simple steps to separating the bargains from the busts here .
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ), traditionally the first company of the index to report earnings, rose 1.3% in anticipation of a better-than-expected earnings number. After the shocker from Alcoa ( AA ), it will be interesting to see if the market can hang onto its gains. The bulls had better hope that the remainder of the week gives them something to smile about from Intel ( INTC ), JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ), Bank of America ( BAC ) and Google ( GOOG ).
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Alcoa ( AA ), traditionally the first company of the index to report earnings, rose 1.3% in anticipation of a better-than-expected earnings number. After the shocker from Alcoa ( AA ), it will be interesting to see if the market can hang onto its gains. Thompson Reuters reports that key analysts are expecting the average Q1 earnings of the S&P 500 to be higher by 36.8% than one year ago.
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Alcoa ( AA ), traditionally the first company of the index to report earnings, rose 1.3% in anticipation of a better-than-expected earnings number. After the shocker from Alcoa ( AA ), it will be interesting to see if the market can hang onto its gains. What the Markets Are Saying Yesterday the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX ), a key measure of investor nervousness about upcoming market swings, fell 3.5% to 15.58, its lowest settle since July 2007.
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Alcoa ( AA ), traditionally the first company of the index to report earnings, rose 1.3% in anticipation of a better-than-expected earnings number. After the shocker from Alcoa ( AA ), it will be interesting to see if the market can hang onto its gains. However, the broad index did close higher for the sixth time in seven days.
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1886.0
|
2010-04-12 00:00:00 UTC
|
Gold Continues to Rise as Greece Bailout Package Bolsters Euro
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/gold-continues-rise-greece-bailout-package-bolsters-euro-2010-04-12
|
nan
|
nan
|
Gold is continuing to rise to reach a four-month high in morning trade Monday, as Greece secured a financial aid package totaling up to 45 billion euros, or about $61 billion, from European governments as well as the International Monetary Fund. Specifically, the euro zone mininsters agreed over the weekend to provide up to 30 billion euros, while the remaining 15 billion euros will come from the IMF.
The bailout agreement has bolstered the euro against the greenback, which has increased the allure of the precious metal.
At 0810 ET, gold is up 0.1% at $1,163.30 an ounce, while silver is up 0.7% at $18.49 an ounce, and copper is up 0.5% at $360.60 a pound.
Base metals too are gaining ground on renewed hopes for a steady global economic recovery, and more stability in the euro zone in particular. Russian aluminium giant UC Rusal (0486) expects to boost output and restart a mothballed plant as it reported a better-than-expected profit for the second half of 2009.
Traders will be looking to the earnings results of Alcoa Inc ( AA ), to be released after market close. Many analysts, however, are expecting the largest U.S. aluminum producer to post lower-than-expected results as rising costs are expected to offset the rise in metal prices.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
|
Traders will be looking to the earnings results of Alcoa Inc ( AA ), to be released after market close. Gold is continuing to rise to reach a four-month high in morning trade Monday, as Greece secured a financial aid package totaling up to 45 billion euros, or about $61 billion, from European governments as well as the International Monetary Fund. Base metals too are gaining ground on renewed hopes for a steady global economic recovery, and more stability in the euro zone in particular.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Traders will be looking to the earnings results of Alcoa Inc ( AA ), to be released after market close. Specifically, the euro zone mininsters agreed over the weekend to provide up to 30 billion euros, while the remaining 15 billion euros will come from the IMF.
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Traders will be looking to the earnings results of Alcoa Inc ( AA ), to be released after market close. Gold is continuing to rise to reach a four-month high in morning trade Monday, as Greece secured a financial aid package totaling up to 45 billion euros, or about $61 billion, from European governments as well as the International Monetary Fund. Specifically, the euro zone mininsters agreed over the weekend to provide up to 30 billion euros, while the remaining 15 billion euros will come from the IMF.
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Traders will be looking to the earnings results of Alcoa Inc ( AA ), to be released after market close. Specifically, the euro zone mininsters agreed over the weekend to provide up to 30 billion euros, while the remaining 15 billion euros will come from the IMF. The bailout agreement has bolstered the euro against the greenback, which has increased the allure of the precious metal.
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1887.0
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2010-04-12 00:00:00 UTC
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Get Long or Stay on the Sidelines?
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/get-long-or-stay-sidelines-2010-04-12
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nan
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nan
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Even though stocks were flat during most of Friday, a late-day rally popped the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) to slightly over the 11,000 level. And even though it didn't hold through the close, the bulls were invigorated by the performance, which closed the important index at its highest level since September 2008.
But despite the strong performance of U.S. stocks, rumors still persisted that Greece would default on the new bond issues, and those rumors picked up when Fitch downgraded Greece's debt rating to triple B-minus. But the notion of default was at least temporarily put to rest when Reuters reported that euro zone officials had reached a deal on how to provide emergency loans to Greece if needed.
The U.S. dollar weakened in the final hour of trading just as U.S. stocks rallied. But volume was again very light, and many questioned the commitment of public investors. With the Q1 earnings season starting today with the report of Alcoa ( AA ), which was off 3.23% on Friday, investors seemed to put buying aside until those first earnings are in the bag.
At the close, the Dow rose 70 points to 10,997, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) gained 8 points to 1,194, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 17 points to 2,454.
The NYSE traded 970 million shares with advancers over decliners by slightly more than 2-to-1. On the Nasdaq, volume totaled 546 million shares with advancers ahead by 7-to-6.
May crude oil lost 55 cents, closing at $84.92. It was the third straight lower close for crude and reflects the concerns over a lag in a global recovery. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE ) rose 63 cents to $59.83.
Gold (June contract) rose $9 to $1,161.90 an ounce as money again fled from the European debt markets to a safer refuge. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index ( XAU ) gained 1.05 points to close at 177.
What the Markets Are Saying
The "wall of worry" continues to grow, but with it stock prices continue to inch higher. Friday's action was typical of the past six weeks with NYSE volume under a billion shares, but with twice as many buyers as sellers.
Many services have been reporting that institutional buying has been the cause of the recent move higher. Most point out that the public is still pretty much out of the market having been burned twice in the past 10 years. But Investors Intelligence said the following, "Monday (April 5) ended with all major indexes at new 52-week highs, after gains near 1% and better than 3-to-1 advance/decline breadth. However, trading volume contracted, a signal that large institutions were not embracing the new highs."
So the reason for the very light volume, despite the almost daily new highs, is perplexing to most market technicians. I've commented on it almost daily. But it should be obvious by now that the reason for the low volume is not so important as the fact that stocks continue to rise higher despite the general opinion that the market is overbought. This is not an easy pill for most investors to swallow, so many have not participated in the last several hundred Dow points.
But when stocks break to new highs, as they did on March 17, and continue higher, momentum players will almost always jump on board despite the high risk. So it has been those traders who now profit almost daily from quick turnaround trades.
However, others like S&P's more conservative analyst Mark Arbeter, decided long ago to stand aside, and he is quoted from S&P's Friday morning Technical Market Insight as saying, "Risk of pullback remains high, and we would not chase the market here."
For traders there is no other course than to be long stocks with the understanding that the market is very overbought and that protective stop-loss orders should be used to limit risk. These traders will use highly leveraged investments like options and double and triple leveraged ETFs to maximize their potential gains. Other more conservative investors will most likely choose to stand aside until a better opportunity presents itself. Neither is wrong; they just have different investment objectives.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported after the close: Alcoa.
Economic report due: Treasury budget (the consensus expects -$62 billion).
Related Articles:
Kick Off Earnings Season With This Retail Trade
Top Steal Stock to Buy Now
The Easiest Way to Profit From Mispriced Options
Top 5 Stocks for the Recovery
With rising earnings, a strong balance sheet and a powerful new product line (all despite the recession!) these five stocks are set to outperform the market in the short-term. Get their names here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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With the Q1 earnings season starting today with the report of Alcoa ( AA ), which was off 3.23% on Friday, investors seemed to put buying aside until those first earnings are in the bag. Even though stocks were flat during most of Friday, a late-day rally popped the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) to slightly over the 11,000 level. But the notion of default was at least temporarily put to rest when Reuters reported that euro zone officials had reached a deal on how to provide emergency loans to Greece if needed.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. With the Q1 earnings season starting today with the report of Alcoa ( AA ), which was off 3.23% on Friday, investors seemed to put buying aside until those first earnings are in the bag. Related Articles: Kick Off Earnings Season With This Retail Trade Top Steal Stock to Buy Now The Easiest Way to Profit From Mispriced Options Top 5 Stocks for the Recovery With rising earnings, a strong balance sheet and a powerful new product line (all despite the recession!)
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With the Q1 earnings season starting today with the report of Alcoa ( AA ), which was off 3.23% on Friday, investors seemed to put buying aside until those first earnings are in the bag. At the close, the Dow rose 70 points to 10,997, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) gained 8 points to 1,194, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 17 points to 2,454. But it should be obvious by now that the reason for the low volume is not so important as the fact that stocks continue to rise higher despite the general opinion that the market is overbought.
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With the Q1 earnings season starting today with the report of Alcoa ( AA ), which was off 3.23% on Friday, investors seemed to put buying aside until those first earnings are in the bag. At the close, the Dow rose 70 points to 10,997, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) gained 8 points to 1,194, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 17 points to 2,454. So the reason for the very light volume, despite the almost daily new highs, is perplexing to most market technicians.
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1888.0
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2010-04-06 00:00:00 UTC
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Market in a Vulnerable Position
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/market-vulnerable-position-2010-04-06
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nan
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nan
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On Monday, the market continued its plodding ways, but despite new 18-month highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) just couldn't muster enough strength to conquer 11,000.
The payroll numbers that were released on Friday (when the market was closed) seemed to provide what the buyers needed to push stocks higher yesterday, but most of the buying was in the more speculative technology and small-cap sectors than in the Dow.
Apple's ( AAPL ) new iPad sales didn't meet some analysts' estimates, but nevertheless the stock rose to new highs, gaining 1.1%, and took much of the technology sector along with it. Best Buy ( BBY ), a major iPad retailer, rose as well, gaining 1.9%.
Volume was again light, and some observers blamed the lack of commitment on the fear of a possible interest rate hike by the Fed. Others worried about the earnings reports that begin next Monday, marking the start of the new quarterly earnings season.
Alcoa ( AA ) is traditionally the first Dow stock to report earnings. Yesterday, AA gained 3 cents, but it was downgraded by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) amid rumors of an investigation of its dealings with China.
So the "wall of worry" continues to be climbed, and yesterday the Dow rose 46 points, closing at 10,974, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) rose 9 points to 1,187, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 27 points to close at 2,430.
The NYSE traded just 902 million shares with advancers over decliners by more than 3-to-1. The Nasdaq crossed 522 million shares with advancers ahead by 5-to-2.
Crude oil (May contract) rose $1.75 to $86.62 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE ) rose $1.04 to close at $59.58.
June gold gained $7.70, closing at $1,133.80 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index ( XAU ) jumped 1.79 points to close at 173.07.
What the Markets Are Saying
One of the reasons for the slow, plodding nature of the market is that the public, having been badly burned by two nasty bear markets, are still not participating in the buying process. But neither are they selling.
Most of the wealth of the average American is tied up in IRAs, 401(k) accounts, cash, mutual funds, or long-term bonds and equivalents. If there is one thing that is common to all of these plans, it is that they are usually "static." By that I mean that few changes will be made at the request of the owners of the plans, and the investment managers are unwilling to take risks that could backfire and lose them their management fees.
But as we approach the resistance zones outlined on Monday , we are dealing with major potential sellers frustrated by the pace of the market. Many have held portfolios that, despite the market's bounce of more than 63% from the March 2009 lows, are still 20% to 40% underwater, and they are tired of hearing about the enormous gains made in stocks in the past year.
This makes the current market condition very vulnerable to bad news of any kind. So with prices at extremely high relative levels, a hike in interest rates by the Fed, a less-than-stellar earnings report by a major company, an unexpected war, or a host of other possible triggers could pull the support from stocks and turn profits into losses overnight.
Over 40 years of experience in this type of internal market structure leads me to be very cautious. New investments in stocks should be in very high-quality or highly predictable companies, and trades should be immediately followed with firm stop-loss orders. Momentum and momentum alone is slowly moving stocks forward against internal and sentiment readings that are excessively overbought.
Today's Trading Landscape
There are no significant earnings to be reported today.
Economic reports due: ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales, Redbook and FOMC minutes.
Related Articles:
Get a Piece of the Technology PIE
4 Cheap Option Trades on Expensive Stocks
5 Option Trades on Hot Takeover Rumors
The Secret to Banking Giant Options Gains
If you're ready to make serious money, we're talking about 100%-5,300% profits, read our just-released trading guide online now. In it we reveal the money-doubling secret we were banned from sharing, plus two free trades to get you started. Get your FREE copy here!
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Apple's ( AAPL ) new iPad sales didn't meet some analysts' estimates, but nevertheless the stock rose to new highs, gaining 1.1%, and took much of the technology sector along with it. Alcoa ( AA ) is traditionally the first Dow stock to report earnings. Yesterday, AA gained 3 cents, but it was downgraded by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) amid rumors of an investigation of its dealings with China.
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Apple's ( AAPL ) new iPad sales didn't meet some analysts' estimates, but nevertheless the stock rose to new highs, gaining 1.1%, and took much of the technology sector along with it. Alcoa ( AA ) is traditionally the first Dow stock to report earnings. Yesterday, AA gained 3 cents, but it was downgraded by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) amid rumors of an investigation of its dealings with China.
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Apple's ( AAPL ) new iPad sales didn't meet some analysts' estimates, but nevertheless the stock rose to new highs, gaining 1.1%, and took much of the technology sector along with it. Alcoa ( AA ) is traditionally the first Dow stock to report earnings. Yesterday, AA gained 3 cents, but it was downgraded by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) amid rumors of an investigation of its dealings with China.
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Alcoa ( AA ) is traditionally the first Dow stock to report earnings. Apple's ( AAPL ) new iPad sales didn't meet some analysts' estimates, but nevertheless the stock rose to new highs, gaining 1.1%, and took much of the technology sector along with it. Yesterday, AA gained 3 cents, but it was downgraded by JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) amid rumors of an investigation of its dealings with China.
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1889.0
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2010-04-01 00:00:00 UTC
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Buys and Sells in the Top 25 Mining Stocks (AA, BHP, RTP, VALE)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/buys-and-sells-top-25-mining-stocks-aa-bhp-rtp-vale-2010-04-01
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nan
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nan
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A weaker dollar is all but ensured as interest rates remain low and federal spending remains high. That means inflation for commodities from corn to crude oil to gold that are priced in dollars simply by virtue of currency exchange rates. As the dollar drops, these goods naturally are boosted. That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments.
Coupled with an aversion to risk, the market has been booming for metals like silver and gold. Gold prices remain above $1,100 an ounce and the gold bugs are calling for prices to move higher.
But does that mean that metals and mining stocks are good buys right now? Not necessarily. I place a priority on stocks with great fundamentals -- meaning the ability to grow profits and earnings consistently quarter to quarter and year to year. Just because gold is pricey now doesn't mean that gold miners will maintain their growth, or that they are operating at big enough margins to capitalize on the current conditions.
Also, it's important to follow the money. Many metal and mining stocks have fallen out of favor as investors turn to other hot sectors such as technology and healthcare. This lack of buying pressure pushing up shares (or "quantitative pressure" in Wall Street speak) makes it difficult for miners to post the dramatic gains many investors are looking for right now.
Listed below are the 25 biggest metals and miners on Wall Street (measured by market cap), with a breakdown of their quantitative grades and fundamental grades according to my own Portfolio Grader database calculations.
You can get in-depth fundamental analysis and a one-year history of rankings absolutely FREE via my Portfolio Grader tool, but the overall grades below are worth noting. Only one stocks in the entire sector -- Teck Resources ( TCK ) -- qualifies for my highest overall grade and only Russian miner Mechel ( MTL ) gets the second-best ranking of a B overall. The rest of the sector is rather lackluster.
Portfolio Grader, my FREE stock ranking tool, offers updated recommendations each week on about 5,000 publicly traded stocks. The database is updated every Monday morning to give you the latest info on the hottest Wall Street companies. You can get access to PortfolioGrader at InvestorPlace.com by clicking on my bio under the "our experts" heading at the top of any page.
Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell
Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell"
Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell"
Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell"
AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell"
BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell"
BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold"
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold"
Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell"
ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy"
Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell"
POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold"
Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold"
Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy"
Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold"
United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Related Articles:
Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April
5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be Doomed
Why BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April 5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be Doomed Why BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. That means inflation for commodities from corn to crude oil to gold that are priced in dollars simply by virtue of currency exchange rates.
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That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April 5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be Doomed Why BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Portfolio Grader, my FREE stock ranking tool, offers updated recommendations each week on about 5,000 publicly traded stocks.
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Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April 5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be Doomed Why BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Also, it's important to follow the money.
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That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April 5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be Doomed Why BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Gold prices remain above $1,100 an ounce and the gold bugs are calling for prices to move higher.
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1890.0
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2010-04-01 00:00:00 UTC
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Buys and Sells in the Top 25 Mining Stocks (AA, BHP, RTP, VALE)
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/buys-and-sells-top-25-mining-stocks-aa-bhp-rtp-vale-2010-04-01-0
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nan
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nan
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A weaker dollar is all but ensured as interest rates remain low and federal spending remains high. That means inflation for commodities from corn to crude oil to gold that are priced in dollars simply by virtue of currency exchange rates. As the dollar drops, these goods naturally are boosted. That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments.
Coupled with an aversion to risk, the market has been booming for metals like silver and gold. Gold prices remain above $1,100 an ounce and the gold bugs are calling for prices to move higher.
But does that mean that metals and mining stocks are good buys right now? Not necessarily. I place a priority on stocks with great fundamentals - meaning the ability to grow profits and earnings consistently quarter to quarter and year to year. Just because gold is pricey now doesn't mean that gold miners will maintain their growth, or that they are operating at big enough margins to capitalize on the current conditions.
Also, it's important to follow the money. Many metal and mining stocks have fallen out of favor as investors turn to other hot sectors such as technology and healthcare. This lack of buying pressure pushing up shares (or "quantitative pressure" in Wall Street speak) makes it difficult for miners to post the dramatic gains many investors are looking for right now.
Listed below are the 25 biggest metals and miners on Wall Street (measured by market cap), with a breakdown of their quantitative grades and fundamental grades according to my own Portfolio Grader database calculations.
You can get in-depth fundamental analysis and a one-year history of rankings absolutely FREE via my Portfolio Grader tool, but the overall grades below are worth noting. Only one stocks in the entire sector - Teck Resources ( TCK ) - qualifies for my highest overall grade and only Russian miner Mechel ( MTL ) gets the second-best ranking of a B overall. The rest of the sector is rather lackluster.
Portfolio Grader, my FREE stock ranking tool, offers updated recommendations each week on about 5,000 publicly traded stocks. The database is updated every Monday morning to give you the latest info on the hottest Wall Street companies. You can get access to PortfolioGrader at InvestorPlace.com by clicking on my bio under the "our experts" heading at the top of any page.
Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell"
Related Articles:
Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be DoomedWhy BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be DoomedWhy BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. That means inflation for commodities from corn to crude oil to gold that are priced in dollars simply by virtue of currency exchange rates.
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That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be DoomedWhy BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Portfolio Grader, my FREE stock ranking tool, offers updated recommendations each week on about 5,000 publicly traded stocks.
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Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be DoomedWhy BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Also, it's important to follow the money.
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That has many investors looking at metal and mining stocks like Alcoa ( AA ), BHP Billiton ( BHP ), Rio Tinto ( RTP ) and Vale ( VALE ) as possible investments. Alcoa ( AA ): Market cap of $13.9B, total grade of D for Sell Barrick Gold Corp. ( ABX ): Market cap of $36.8B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ): Market cap of $13.6B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" Agnico-Eagle Mines ( AEM ): Market cap of $8.7B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (( AU ): Market cap of $13.2B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" BHP Billiton PLC ( BBL ): Market cap of $185.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" BHP Billiton Ltd. ( BHP ): Market cap of $218.7B, total grade of D for "Sell" Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. ( CLF ): Market cap of $9.3B, total grade of C for "Hold" Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold ( FCX ): Market cap of $34.0B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gold Fields Ltd. ( GFI ): Market cap of $8.6B, total grade of D for "Sell" Goldcorp Inc. ( GG ): Market cap of $27.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Gerdau S.A. ( GGB ): Market cap of $13.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Kinross Gold ( KGC ): Market cap of $11.8B, total grade of D for "Sell" ArcelorMittal ( MT ): Market cap of $66.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Mechel OAO ( MTL ): Market cap of $13.B, total grade of B for "Buy" Newmont Mining Corp. ( NEM ): Market cap of $24.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Nucor Corp. ( NUE ): Market cap of $14.4B, total grade of F for "Strong Sell" POSCO ( PKX ): Market cap of $35.8 B, total grade of D for "Sell" Rio Tinto PLC ( RTP ): Market cap of $113.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Southern Copper ( SCCO ): Market cap of $26.3B, total grade of D for "Sell" Companhia Siderurgica Nacional ( SID ): Market cap of $28.8B, total grade of C for "Hold" Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. ( SLT ): Market cap of $15.1B, total grade of C for "Hold" Teck Resources Ltd. ( TCK ): Market cap of $23.7B, total grade of A for "Strong Buy" Vale S.A. ( VALE ): Market cap of $160.5B, total grade of C for "Hold" United States Steel ( X ): Market cap of $9.2B, total grade of D for "Sell" Related Articles: Louis' Top 5 Stocks to Buy for April5 Reasons Chrysler Could Be DoomedWhy BlackBerry and RIMM Could Be the Next Palm The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Gold prices remain above $1,100 an ounce and the gold bugs are calling for prices to move higher.
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1891.0
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2010-03-18 00:00:00 UTC
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Overbought, Overbought, Overbought!
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/overbought-overbought-overbought-2010-03-18
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nan
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nan
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Stocks ran to new highs again yesterday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) gained for the seventh straight day and the S&P 500 ( SPX ) gained for its third straight day. The Dow climbed to a 17-month high, its longest winning streak since August 2009.
Financial stocks moved higher following indications from the Fed that the economic recovery still needs the support of lower interest rates. But worries over new financial regulations limited gains in that sector. And health care was under scrutiny by Congress, as well, so the sector closed at just above breakeven.
Buyers were encouraged by a fall of 0.6% in the February producer price index ( PPI ) even though core PPI rose by 0.1%, which was expected. With wholesale level inflation in a zone that appears to be under control, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates low, and that encourages investors to place money into more high-risk areas.
Alcoa ( AA ) was the Dow's strongest component, up 4.8% due to higher metal prices. Both Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and Chevron ( CVX ) rose about 1%, which mirrored gains in oil.
At the close, the Dow was up 48 points to 10,734, the S&P 500 rose 7 points to 1,166, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 11 points to 2,389.
On the NYSE, advancers beat decliners by more than 2-to-1 with volume of just over 1 billion shares, while the Nasdaq traded 602 million shares with advancers ahead by 8-to-5.
Crude oil futures hit a two-month high yesterday, with the April contract settling at $82.93 a barrel, up $1.23. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE ) gained 63 cents to close at $59.05.
April gold rose $1.70 to $1,124.20 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index ( XAU ) fell 15 points to 169.77.
What the Markets Are Saying
Stocks closed higher again yesterday, and even though both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen 9 of the last 10 trading days, it is a pace that can't be sustained for much longer.
One measurement of value is the Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) . The RSI is an overbought/oversold oscillator that is used to identify buying opportunities in market dips and selling opportunities in market rallies. It is a number between 0 and 100 with a lower number indicating an oversold market and a higher number an overbought market. Most traders use an RSI in the 70 to 80 range as an indication of an overbought market and a value of 20 to 30 as an oversold market.
Currently, the Dow is at 71.07, the S&P 500 is at 67.23, and the Nasdaq is at 76.39. The NYSE Composite (an index of all stocks traded on the NYSE) is at 73.45.
Every index is now at an RSI number in excess of the January high that was registered just before the mid-month correction that resulted in a 9%-plus pullback. And each is also very close to the highest readings in over a year.
Additionally, S&P notes that its momentum, internal indicators and sentiment numbers all are overbought.
In spite of this, stocks could move higher. But with each passing day, the chances of a correction go up too.
So, at this level, I would not recommend new positions until the overbought situation is resolved.
Special situations and short sales, as well as inverse exchange traded funds (ETFs) are naturally excluded from this recommendation. But new money targeted for equities should be temporarily held for a better investment opportunity, and short-term trades should be cashed in on days when stocks spike up.
A pullback to S&P 1,100 to 1,130 is probable, so I'm not looking for a major change in trend, but it is time to accumulate cash until stocks come more in line with reasonable value.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: CRA International, FedEx, GameStop Corp., Marcus Corp., New York & Co., Ross Stores, Shoe Carnival, Stein Mart, Vimpel Communications and Winnebago Industries.
Earnings to be reported after the close include: Addus HomeCare, Cintas, ICX Technologies and Palm.
Economic reports due: consumer price index (the consensus expects 0.1%), jobless claims (the consensus expects 455 K), leading indicators (the consensus expects 0.2%), Philadelphia Fed survey (the consensus expects 18), EIA natural gas report, Fed balance sheet and money supply.
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Going Global for World-Class Profits
Countries such as Brazil, India and China are all forecasting GDP growth that surpasses that of the United States. This special report from CNBC's Maria Bartiromo shows you the best way to go after world-class profits now. Download your FREE copy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa ( AA ) was the Dow's strongest component, up 4.8% due to higher metal prices. With wholesale level inflation in a zone that appears to be under control, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates low, and that encourages investors to place money into more high-risk areas. What the Markets Are Saying Stocks closed higher again yesterday, and even though both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen 9 of the last 10 trading days, it is a pace that can't be sustained for much longer.
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Alcoa ( AA ) was the Dow's strongest component, up 4.8% due to higher metal prices. Financial stocks moved higher following indications from the Fed that the economic recovery still needs the support of lower interest rates. It is a number between 0 and 100 with a lower number indicating an oversold market and a higher number an overbought market.
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Alcoa ( AA ) was the Dow's strongest component, up 4.8% due to higher metal prices. Stocks ran to new highs again yesterday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) gained for the seventh straight day and the S&P 500 ( SPX ) gained for its third straight day. What the Markets Are Saying Stocks closed higher again yesterday, and even though both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen 9 of the last 10 trading days, it is a pace that can't be sustained for much longer.
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Alcoa ( AA ) was the Dow's strongest component, up 4.8% due to higher metal prices. Financial stocks moved higher following indications from the Fed that the economic recovery still needs the support of lower interest rates. It is a number between 0 and 100 with a lower number indicating an oversold market and a higher number an overbought market.
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1892.0
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2010-03-16 00:00:00 UTC
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China: This Year the Dragon Slows
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-year-dragon-slows-2010-03-16
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nan
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nan
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Brian Kelly submits:
Last week we laid out our hypothesis for the eventual appreciation of the Yuan v. the U.S. Dollar. For those who missed it here is the summary…
China has lost control of the money supply which will eventually lead to uncontrollable inflation. The loss of control is due to the inexpensive cost of Chinese goods - foreign companies continue to purchase goods from China because it is the low cost producer. Without the automatic stabilizer of a flexible exchange rate this competitive advantage places the growth in the money supply outside the control of the People's Bank of China.
Fueling the Fire
The weekend comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao coupled with remarks from Senators Schumer and Grassley places the global economy in a precarious position. The Premier's remarks indicate the Chinese preference for political autonomy at the expense of economic stability. The Senators' suggestions that China be punished with tariffs will only serve to fuel the political fire.
In our view, punishing China with tariffs is tantamount to the Smoot-Hawley Act that exacerbated the Great Depression. At the same time, the Chinese Premier's resolve to keep the Yuan 'stable' is creating an untenable hostile political environment. The opposing viewpoints will only serve to make the problem worse.
The End Game
In our view the end result will be a slowing Chinese economy. Eventually, the impact of rising inflation will overshadow the political posturing and the Chinese will allow the Yuan to appreciate. If played skillfully, the Chinese will be able to spin the move as their idea. If the Chinese do not allow appreciation, uncontrollable inflation will slow the economy of its own accord.
Since our view is for a slowing Chinese economic environment our trades remain the same; Short aluminum via Alcoa ( AA ) and Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ), short Hong Kong via [[EWH]] and short China via [[FXI]]. As is our trading protocol we will be adding to these positions on weakness.
Disclosure : Short EWH, FXI, AA and ACH
See also Will Britain's Budget Day Influence Pound? on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Disclosure : Short EWH, FXI, AA and ACH See also Will Britain's Budget Day Influence Pound? Since our view is for a slowing Chinese economic environment our trades remain the same; Short aluminum via Alcoa ( AA ) and Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ), short Hong Kong via [[EWH]] and short China via [[FXI]]. Without the automatic stabilizer of a flexible exchange rate this competitive advantage places the growth in the money supply outside the control of the People's Bank of China.
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Since our view is for a slowing Chinese economic environment our trades remain the same; Short aluminum via Alcoa ( AA ) and Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ), short Hong Kong via [[EWH]] and short China via [[FXI]]. Disclosure : Short EWH, FXI, AA and ACH See also Will Britain's Budget Day Influence Pound? The Senators' suggestions that China be punished with tariffs will only serve to fuel the political fire.
|
Since our view is for a slowing Chinese economic environment our trades remain the same; Short aluminum via Alcoa ( AA ) and Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ), short Hong Kong via [[EWH]] and short China via [[FXI]]. Disclosure : Short EWH, FXI, AA and ACH See also Will Britain's Budget Day Influence Pound? The loss of control is due to the inexpensive cost of Chinese goods - foreign companies continue to purchase goods from China because it is the low cost producer.
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Since our view is for a slowing Chinese economic environment our trades remain the same; Short aluminum via Alcoa ( AA ) and Aluminum Corp. of China ( ACH ), short Hong Kong via [[EWH]] and short China via [[FXI]]. Disclosure : Short EWH, FXI, AA and ACH See also Will Britain's Budget Day Influence Pound? The Senators' suggestions that China be punished with tariffs will only serve to fuel the political fire.
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1893.0
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2010-03-02 00:00:00 UTC
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Attention Citigroup Board: Pandit Does Not Deserve a Bonus
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/attention-citigroup-board-pandit-does-not-deserve-bonus-2010-03-02
|
nan
|
nan
|
Amit Chokshi submits:
Bloomberg reported Monday that Citigroup's ( C ) Board of Directors believes CEO Vikram Pandit deserved a bonus for 2009. This is a laughable assertion and significant shareholders should really hold the feet of the Board of Directors of Citigroup to the fire. Is the Board beholden to shareholders or its CEO? Giving Pandit a bonus would further dilute the investment of shareholders (albeit slightly) so given that Pandit did the right thing and declined a bonus, why change course in a move that is detrimental to shareholders?
In typical, "me too" mentality, C's Board believes because the CEOs of other banks such as Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein received bonuses in large part due to market recoveries and their banks' special status in receiving massive taxpayer subsidies, that C's CEO should also get a bonus. Pandit has done the right thing first off by declining any bonus. While he did bilk his predecessor Chuck Prince into paying an idiotic price for a mediocre hedge fund, Pandit has now done right by shareholders by saying he would pass on a bonus, particularly since he deserved no bonus whatsoever.
The author of the Bloomberg article, Bradley Keoun, indicates that Board members felt Pandit deserved a bonus in part due to C's ability to raise capital, sell assets, and repay $20B in TARP. Anyone could have done the same job as Pandit as all of these moves were predicated on market conditions as opposed to any managerial talent.
C was able to raise capital but at what price? C has consistently diluted shareholders and its success in raising capital has largely been due to massive US taxpayer support. The last capital raise C executed was to repay its TARP obligation. Laughably, this capital raise was done at essentially C's low of the entire crisis. Apparently, raising billions of high cost equity capital at multi decade lows is a sign of managerial talent according to C's Board. In addition, C was a follower in this event, raising capital to pay back TARP because its competition had done so, hardly a sign of forward thinking.
Click on all images to enlarge
CHART I: C STOCK PERFORMANCE
C's Board wants to credit Pandit for selling off C assets. A quick memo to the Board: C had to sell off assets. C sold off much of its garbage and did so in many cases at great prices but this again has nothing to do with managerial acumen. What happened was when C was receiving capital from the US taxpayer during the height of the crisis, managers were scared and felt that all of their loans were worthless so they took heavy marks on these securities. In 2009, credit spreads compressed, in part due to the Federal Reserve and US taxpayers' actions which buoyed the market. All of a sudden securities marked at $0.20 on the dollar were worth $0.40 or $0.80 or more. C, which had to divest itself of its more racier securities, sold these but only because market conditions allowed for it.
I own C shares myself and am very bullish on the company but it's in no part due to the managerial talent of the company. It's due to mostly to deep analysis of the company's financial statements and running analyses that indicate there's value at C. As a shareholder I am more concerned by the Board's preference to treat Pandit at the expense of the true owners of C.
However, when reading that some of the directors that believed Pandit deserved a bonus included Alcoa ( AA ) Chairman Alain Belda, former Time Warner ( TWX ) CEO Richard Parsons, and Xerox ( XRX ) Chairwoman Anne Mulcahy, I was not that surprised. After all, a quick review of the stock performance of the respective companies for each of these management executives in recent years demonstrates that the shareholders received a fair kick in the teeth while these executives no doubt collected tens of millions for destroying shareholder value.
CHART II: ALCOA, XEROX, TIME WARNER STOCK PERFORMANCE
C's Board is clearly polluted with mediocre executives that received major rewards for delivering years of subpar performance to the shareholders of their respective companies. As a result, they have a skewed worldview of what warrants incentive compensation. While I'm not hopeful of any changes to corporate governance, large C shareholders should really contemplate to whom C's Board is beholden.
Author's disclosure: Long C.
See also How to Deregulate Our Way to Better Payday Lending on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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It's due to mostly to deep analysis of the company's financial statements and running analyses that indicate there's value at C. As a shareholder I am more concerned by the Board's preference to treat Pandit at the expense of the true owners of C. However, when reading that some of the directors that believed Pandit deserved a bonus included Alcoa ( AA ) Chairman Alain Belda, former Time Warner ( TWX ) CEO Richard Parsons, and Xerox ( XRX ) Chairwoman Anne Mulcahy, I was not that surprised. Amit Chokshi submits: Bloomberg reported Monday that Citigroup's ( C ) Board of Directors believes CEO Vikram Pandit deserved a bonus for 2009. The author of the Bloomberg article, Bradley Keoun, indicates that Board members felt Pandit deserved a bonus in part due to C's ability to raise capital, sell assets, and repay $20B in TARP.
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It's due to mostly to deep analysis of the company's financial statements and running analyses that indicate there's value at C. As a shareholder I am more concerned by the Board's preference to treat Pandit at the expense of the true owners of C. However, when reading that some of the directors that believed Pandit deserved a bonus included Alcoa ( AA ) Chairman Alain Belda, former Time Warner ( TWX ) CEO Richard Parsons, and Xerox ( XRX ) Chairwoman Anne Mulcahy, I was not that surprised. Amit Chokshi submits: Bloomberg reported Monday that Citigroup's ( C ) Board of Directors believes CEO Vikram Pandit deserved a bonus for 2009. In typical, "me too" mentality, C's Board believes because the CEOs of other banks such as Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein received bonuses in large part due to market recoveries and their banks' special status in receiving massive taxpayer subsidies, that C's CEO should also get a bonus.
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It's due to mostly to deep analysis of the company's financial statements and running analyses that indicate there's value at C. As a shareholder I am more concerned by the Board's preference to treat Pandit at the expense of the true owners of C. However, when reading that some of the directors that believed Pandit deserved a bonus included Alcoa ( AA ) Chairman Alain Belda, former Time Warner ( TWX ) CEO Richard Parsons, and Xerox ( XRX ) Chairwoman Anne Mulcahy, I was not that surprised. In typical, "me too" mentality, C's Board believes because the CEOs of other banks such as Jamie Dimon or Lloyd Blankfein received bonuses in large part due to market recoveries and their banks' special status in receiving massive taxpayer subsidies, that C's CEO should also get a bonus. The author of the Bloomberg article, Bradley Keoun, indicates that Board members felt Pandit deserved a bonus in part due to C's ability to raise capital, sell assets, and repay $20B in TARP.
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It's due to mostly to deep analysis of the company's financial statements and running analyses that indicate there's value at C. As a shareholder I am more concerned by the Board's preference to treat Pandit at the expense of the true owners of C. However, when reading that some of the directors that believed Pandit deserved a bonus included Alcoa ( AA ) Chairman Alain Belda, former Time Warner ( TWX ) CEO Richard Parsons, and Xerox ( XRX ) Chairwoman Anne Mulcahy, I was not that surprised. Amit Chokshi submits: Bloomberg reported Monday that Citigroup's ( C ) Board of Directors believes CEO Vikram Pandit deserved a bonus for 2009. C was able to raise capital but at what price?
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1894.0
|
2010-02-16 00:00:00 UTC
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Bulls Muster a Rebound
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/bulls-muster-rebound-2010-02-16
|
nan
|
nan
|
Last week ended much as it started, with a strong U.S. dollar, weak stock market, and sliding commodities. Worries over Greece's economy and China's move to tighten interest rates dominated Friday's session.
Investors ignored domestic economic data, like an increase of 0.5% in January's advance sales figures, which was better than expected. But they also ignored the lower-than-expected preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reading of 73.7 for February, so perhaps one offset the other.
By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) was down 160 points, led by Alcoa ( AA ), which had been negatively impacted by falling metal prices. But some of the big technology stocks led afternoon trading with Motorola ( MOT ) gaining 7.5% and Intel ( INTC ) up 1.8%.
At the close, the Dow was down 45 points to 10,099, and the S&P 500 ( SPX ) fell 3 points to 1,076, but the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 6 points to 2,184.
The NYSE traded 1.4 billion shares with advancers ahead of decliners by 8-to-7. On the Nasdaq, 730 million shares changed hands with advancers ahead of decliners by 3-to-2 due to a rally in the technology sector.
For the week, the Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq gained 2%.
March crude oil fell 1.5% to $74.13 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE ) closed at $5.59, up 2 cents.
February gold settled down $4.70 to $1,089.50 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index ( XAU ) lost 1.10, falling to 159.60.
What the Markets Are Saying
Sometimes we tend to focus so intensely on the near-term movement of the markets that we ignore the big picture. So let it be said that the overall trend of the U.S. stock market is still up, and that only the short-term and intermediate-term trends are down. The current correction is all very normal with the decline reaching almost 9% on Friday, Feb. 5, in the Dow.
The S&P 500 did a good job holding within a very narrow range by beating back several attempts to break the index below 1,060. Each attempt was met with modest buying, the most noteworthy being that of Feb. 5, when each of the major indices scored a key reversal. That reversal is still in effect.
So the bears have given it their best shot so far, but instead of breaking to new lows, the market again rebounded Friday with the S&P 500 turning up from its 200-day moving average. The afternoon's trading was impressive when in the nick of time the bulls turned a triple-digit Dow decline at noon into just a modest loss. The Nasdaq even scored a gain along with 3-to-2 positive breadth on the day before a three-day holiday weekend.
Last week's rebound could run into resistance at the 20-day moving average at S&P 1,093, and then at the prior high just above 1,100. But a violation of the Feb. 5 low at 1,044 could result in a quick decline to the 200-day moving average at 1,026.
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Abercrombie & Fitch, Advanced Energy, AGA Medical Holdings, Capella Education, CBIZ, CF Industries, China Real Estate, DG FastChannel, Double Hull Tankers, Drew Industries, Fossil, Genuine Parts, FTX, Kraft Foods, Merck, Neutral Tandem, PAR Technology, Pioneer Drilling, Qwest Communications, Stoneridge, Teva Pharmaceutical, United Therapeutics and Valspar.
Earnings to be reported after the close: Aaron's, American Campus Communities, American Medical Systems, Chemspec International, Cray, FMC Technologies, Given Imaging, Global Crossing, Healthways, InnerWorkings, Jarden, La-Z-Boy, LECG Corp, Masimo, Meadowbrook Insurance, Montpelier Re Holdings, Nabors Industries, Newfield Exploration, Pacer, Rackspace Hosting, Regal Entertainment, RSC Holdings, Schawk, Switch & Data, ValueClick, Watts, Whole Foods Market and Winn-Dixie Stores.
Economic reports due: Empire State Manufacturing Survey (the consensus expects 18), Treasury international capital and housing market index.
Quarterly earnings news (earnings vs. estimated):
Kraft Foods ( KFT ): 48 cents vs. 45 cents
Merck ( MRK ): 79 cents vs. 79 cents
Pioneer Drilling ( PDC ): 16 cents vs. 25 cents
Teva Pharmaceutical ( TEVA ): 94 cents vs. 95 cents
Related Articles:
9 Option Trades to Fall in Love With
Options Don't Expire on Friday
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4 Ways to Make Your Fortune in China's Second Surge
If you had gotten in on China's first big surge between 2004 and 2007, you could have multiplied your wealth nearly 1,000 times. Now history is offering you a second chance to make your fortune. Get the four most profitable sectors in China today and the best China stocks to buy now in this new special report. Download your FREE copy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) was down 160 points, led by Alcoa ( AA ), which had been negatively impacted by falling metal prices. Earnings to be reported after the close: Aaron's, American Campus Communities, American Medical Systems, Chemspec International, Cray, FMC Technologies, Given Imaging, Global Crossing, Healthways, InnerWorkings, Jarden, La-Z-Boy, LECG Corp, Masimo, Meadowbrook Insurance, Montpelier Re Holdings, Nabors Industries, Newfield Exploration, Pacer, Rackspace Hosting, Regal Entertainment, RSC Holdings, Schawk, Switch & Data, ValueClick, Watts, Whole Foods Market and Winn-Dixie Stores. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Abercrombie & Fitch, Advanced Energy, AGA Medical Holdings, Capella Education, CBIZ, CF Industries, China Real Estate, DG FastChannel, Double Hull Tankers, Drew Industries, Fossil, Genuine Parts, FTX, Kraft Foods, Merck, Neutral Tandem, PAR Technology, Pioneer Drilling, Qwest Communications, Stoneridge, Teva Pharmaceutical, United Therapeutics and Valspar.
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By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) was down 160 points, led by Alcoa ( AA ), which had been negatively impacted by falling metal prices. Earnings to be reported after the close: Aaron's, American Campus Communities, American Medical Systems, Chemspec International, Cray, FMC Technologies, Given Imaging, Global Crossing, Healthways, InnerWorkings, Jarden, La-Z-Boy, LECG Corp, Masimo, Meadowbrook Insurance, Montpelier Re Holdings, Nabors Industries, Newfield Exploration, Pacer, Rackspace Hosting, Regal Entertainment, RSC Holdings, Schawk, Switch & Data, ValueClick, Watts, Whole Foods Market and Winn-Dixie Stores. But some of the big technology stocks led afternoon trading with Motorola ( MOT ) gaining 7.5% and Intel ( INTC ) up 1.8%.
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Earnings to be reported after the close: Aaron's, American Campus Communities, American Medical Systems, Chemspec International, Cray, FMC Technologies, Given Imaging, Global Crossing, Healthways, InnerWorkings, Jarden, La-Z-Boy, LECG Corp, Masimo, Meadowbrook Insurance, Montpelier Re Holdings, Nabors Industries, Newfield Exploration, Pacer, Rackspace Hosting, Regal Entertainment, RSC Holdings, Schawk, Switch & Data, ValueClick, Watts, Whole Foods Market and Winn-Dixie Stores. By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) was down 160 points, led by Alcoa ( AA ), which had been negatively impacted by falling metal prices. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Abercrombie & Fitch, Advanced Energy, AGA Medical Holdings, Capella Education, CBIZ, CF Industries, China Real Estate, DG FastChannel, Double Hull Tankers, Drew Industries, Fossil, Genuine Parts, FTX, Kraft Foods, Merck, Neutral Tandem, PAR Technology, Pioneer Drilling, Qwest Communications, Stoneridge, Teva Pharmaceutical, United Therapeutics and Valspar.
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By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) was down 160 points, led by Alcoa ( AA ), which had been negatively impacted by falling metal prices. Earnings to be reported after the close: Aaron's, American Campus Communities, American Medical Systems, Chemspec International, Cray, FMC Technologies, Given Imaging, Global Crossing, Healthways, InnerWorkings, Jarden, La-Z-Boy, LECG Corp, Masimo, Meadowbrook Insurance, Montpelier Re Holdings, Nabors Industries, Newfield Exploration, Pacer, Rackspace Hosting, Regal Entertainment, RSC Holdings, Schawk, Switch & Data, ValueClick, Watts, Whole Foods Market and Winn-Dixie Stores. At the close, the Dow was down 45 points to 10,099, and the S&P 500 ( SPX ) fell 3 points to 1,076, but the Nasdaq ( NASD ) gained 6 points to 2,184.
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1895.0
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2010-02-03 00:00:00 UTC
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Are the Bulls Brave Enough to Pull This Off?
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AA
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/are-bulls-brave-enough-pull-2010-02-03
|
nan
|
nan
|
After an opening stumble, stocks rallied on news that pending sales of existing homes rose in December more than forecasters had predicted. Upgrades of Alcoa ( AA ) and Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) by Citigroup ( C ) brought support for the materials stocks, and an upgrade of Schnitzer Steel ( SCHN ) by UBS ( UBS ) helped steel stocks.
Homebuilder D.R. Horton ( DHI ) posted its first quarterly profit since the beginning of the housing slump. Its shares rose 1.3% and contributed to a round of buying in the housing sector.
However, volume still hasn't reached the levels seen on the downside, and investors are eyeing the jobs report due late this week for confirmation of a stronger economy.
Energy stocks did well yesterday, as did other commodity-based stocks. This was due in large part to a small decline in the U.S. dollar, which was down 0.2%.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ) rose 111 points to 10,297, the S&P 500 ( SPX ) gained 14 points to 1,103, and the Nasdaq ( NASD ) rose 19 points to 2,190.
Volume on the NYSE approached 1.2 billion shares, with advancers over decliners by more than 3-to-1. The Nasdaq traded 756 million shares, and advancers led by 4-to-3.
Crude oil for March delivery settled $2.80 higher at $77.23 a barrel, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ( XLE ) gained 74 cents to $57.04.
April gold rose $13 to $1,118 an ounce, and the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index ( XAU ) gained 42 cents, closing at $156.55.
What the Markets Are Saying
While the Dow had its second triple-digit day in a row, rising 2.3% for its best performance since early November, it is still more than 4% below its December high. Like Monday's rally, yesterday's triple-digit pop also lacked volume. Together the two days averaged only about 1.1 billion shares on the NYSE, while the decline from the mid-January high averaged more than 1.5 billion.
But the two-day rally has produced some good news: The bounce has broken both the Dow and the S&P 500 from their bearish channels by penetrating the resistance lines delineating the tops of the channels, and then closing above the highest intraday prices in the channels.
This sets them up nicely for a run at the 50-day moving averages just above yesterday's closes. For the Dow that number is 10,433, and for the S&P 500 it is 1,115.
And there is another positive: After our most-watched internal indicators reached their lowest numbers since the March bottom, each has reversed up. The stochastic even flashed a buy signal on both the Dow and the S&P 500 yesterday.
So, after the shock of losing so much ground in such a short time, investors seem willing to grab at some undervalued gems. But the question is, do the bulls have enough courage and cash to close above the 50-day averages and reestablish the intermediate uptrend lines that were so quickly obliterated?
Today's Trading Landscape
Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Alvarion, Ameristar Casinos, Arrow Electronics, ATMI, AudioCodes, Beacon Roofing Supply, Black & Decker, Brinks, Carlisle Companies, Comcast, CommVault Systems, Dawson Geophysical, Diebold, Enbridge, Headwaters, Health Net, International Paper, Invesco Mortgage Capital, Investment Technology, ITT, Lazard, M/I Homes, Magellan Midstream Partners, MarketAxess Holdings, National Oilwell Varco, Ness Technologies, O2 Micro, Pfizer, Polo Ralph Lauren, Powell Industries, RADVision, Roper Industries, Ryder System, Savvis, Schering-Plough, Silicon Labs, Thermo Fisher, Time Warner, Travelzoo, United Micro, Western Union and Wolverine World Wide.
Earnings to be reportedafter the close: 99 Cents Only, Affymetrix, Akamai Technologies, Ameriprise Financial, Annaly Mortgage, Assurant, Atwood Oceanics, AvalonBay Communities, Blackboard, Brightpoint, Bristow Group, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, CB Richard Ellis Group, CBL & Assoc, Central Garden & Pet Co., Chemspec International, Cisco Systems, Concur Technologies, Covenant Transport, Dolby Labs, Double-Take Software, Dyncorp nternational, Entropic Communications, Equifax, Equity Residential, FEI Company, Fidelity National Financial, Furniture Brands, Genomic Health, Hain Celestial, Harris Stratex, Hill-Rom Holdings, Horace Mann, IDEX Corp., InfoSpace, Kimco Realty, Markel Corp., Measurement Specialties, MEMC Electronic Materials, Monster Worldwide, Neurocrine Biosciences, Newport, Novellus Systems, ON Semiconductor, Open Text, Opnet Technologies, Orleans Homebuilders, Pericom Semiconductor, Regal-Beloit, Regency Centers, RightNow Technologies, Sangamo Biosciences, Selective Insurance Group, Silicon Storage Technology, Spartan Stores, Spherion, Standard Pacific, Stanley Furniture, Steel Dynamics, Symmetricom, THQ, Triumph Group, TrueBlue, United Rentals, Universal Forest, Virage Logic, Visa, Walter Energy, WGL Holdings, Willis Group Holdings and YUM! Brands.
Economic reports due: MBA purchase applications, ADP employment report, ISM non-manufacturing index (the consensus expects 51), and EIA petroleum status report.
Quarterly earnings news (reported vs. estimate):
Alvarion ( ALVR ) 1 cent vs. 0 cents
Brinks ( BCO ) 41 cents vs. 49 cents
Headwaters ( HW ) -23 cents vs. -15 cents
Pfizer ( PFE ) 49 cents vs. 50 cents
Thermo Fisher ( TMO ) 91 vs. 88 cents
Time Warner ( TWX ) 55 cents vs. 52 cents
United Micro ( UMC ) 6 cents vs. 4 cents
Wolverine World Wide ( WWW ) 45 cents vs. 45 cents
Related Articles:
5 Ways to Tell a Stock is Headed Up
Use Trendlines to Predict the Market's Next Move
What the Bleep is a Fibonacci?
Go Big By Going Small: 5 Small Cap Stocks to Buy Now
Small, innovative companies are watching their earnings explode -- and they are the next 10-baggers. Investing pro Louis Navellier reveals his secrets to identifying these small-cap innovators, plus five of his favorite small-cap stocks. Download your FREE profit guide here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Upgrades of Alcoa ( AA ) and Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) by Citigroup ( C ) brought support for the materials stocks, and an upgrade of Schnitzer Steel ( SCHN ) by UBS ( UBS ) helped steel stocks. However, volume still hasn't reached the levels seen on the downside, and investors are eyeing the jobs report due late this week for confirmation of a stronger economy. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Alvarion, Ameristar Casinos, Arrow Electronics, ATMI, AudioCodes, Beacon Roofing Supply, Black & Decker, Brinks, Carlisle Companies, Comcast, CommVault Systems, Dawson Geophysical, Diebold, Enbridge, Headwaters, Health Net, International Paper, Invesco Mortgage Capital, Investment Technology, ITT, Lazard, M/I Homes, Magellan Midstream Partners, MarketAxess Holdings, National Oilwell Varco, Ness Technologies, O2 Micro, Pfizer, Polo Ralph Lauren, Powell Industries, RADVision, Roper Industries, Ryder System, Savvis, Schering-Plough, Silicon Labs, Thermo Fisher, Time Warner, Travelzoo, United Micro, Western Union and Wolverine World Wide.
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Upgrades of Alcoa ( AA ) and Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) by Citigroup ( C ) brought support for the materials stocks, and an upgrade of Schnitzer Steel ( SCHN ) by UBS ( UBS ) helped steel stocks. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Alvarion, Ameristar Casinos, Arrow Electronics, ATMI, AudioCodes, Beacon Roofing Supply, Black & Decker, Brinks, Carlisle Companies, Comcast, CommVault Systems, Dawson Geophysical, Diebold, Enbridge, Headwaters, Health Net, International Paper, Invesco Mortgage Capital, Investment Technology, ITT, Lazard, M/I Homes, Magellan Midstream Partners, MarketAxess Holdings, National Oilwell Varco, Ness Technologies, O2 Micro, Pfizer, Polo Ralph Lauren, Powell Industries, RADVision, Roper Industries, Ryder System, Savvis, Schering-Plough, Silicon Labs, Thermo Fisher, Time Warner, Travelzoo, United Micro, Western Union and Wolverine World Wide. Quarterly earnings news (reported vs. estimate): Alvarion ( ALVR ) 1 cent vs. 0 cents Brinks ( BCO ) 41 cents vs. 49 cents Headwaters ( HW ) -23 cents vs. -15 cents Pfizer ( PFE ) 49 cents vs. 50 cents Thermo Fisher ( TMO ) 91 vs. 88 cents Time Warner ( TWX ) 55 cents vs. 52 cents United Micro ( UMC ) 6 cents vs. 4 cents Wolverine World Wide ( WWW ) 45 cents vs. 45 cents Related Articles: 5 Ways to Tell a Stock is Headed Up Use Trendlines to Predict the Market's Next Move What the Bleep is a Fibonacci?
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Upgrades of Alcoa ( AA ) and Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) by Citigroup ( C ) brought support for the materials stocks, and an upgrade of Schnitzer Steel ( SCHN ) by UBS ( UBS ) helped steel stocks. Today's Trading Landscape Earnings to be reported before the opening include: Alvarion, Ameristar Casinos, Arrow Electronics, ATMI, AudioCodes, Beacon Roofing Supply, Black & Decker, Brinks, Carlisle Companies, Comcast, CommVault Systems, Dawson Geophysical, Diebold, Enbridge, Headwaters, Health Net, International Paper, Invesco Mortgage Capital, Investment Technology, ITT, Lazard, M/I Homes, Magellan Midstream Partners, MarketAxess Holdings, National Oilwell Varco, Ness Technologies, O2 Micro, Pfizer, Polo Ralph Lauren, Powell Industries, RADVision, Roper Industries, Ryder System, Savvis, Schering-Plough, Silicon Labs, Thermo Fisher, Time Warner, Travelzoo, United Micro, Western Union and Wolverine World Wide. Earnings to be reportedafter the close: 99 Cents Only, Affymetrix, Akamai Technologies, Ameriprise Financial, Annaly Mortgage, Assurant, Atwood Oceanics, AvalonBay Communities, Blackboard, Brightpoint, Bristow Group, Broadcom, Cadence Design Systems, CB Richard Ellis Group, CBL & Assoc, Central Garden & Pet Co., Chemspec International, Cisco Systems, Concur Technologies, Covenant Transport, Dolby Labs, Double-Take Software, Dyncorp nternational, Entropic Communications, Equifax, Equity Residential, FEI Company, Fidelity National Financial, Furniture Brands, Genomic Health, Hain Celestial, Harris Stratex, Hill-Rom Holdings, Horace Mann, IDEX Corp., InfoSpace, Kimco Realty, Markel Corp., Measurement Specialties, MEMC Electronic Materials, Monster Worldwide, Neurocrine Biosciences, Newport, Novellus Systems, ON Semiconductor, Open Text, Opnet Technologies, Orleans Homebuilders, Pericom Semiconductor, Regal-Beloit, Regency Centers, RightNow Technologies, Sangamo Biosciences, Selective Insurance Group, Silicon Storage Technology, Spartan Stores, Spherion, Standard Pacific, Stanley Furniture, Steel Dynamics, Symmetricom, THQ, Triumph Group, TrueBlue, United Rentals, Universal Forest, Virage Logic, Visa, Walter Energy, WGL Holdings, Willis Group Holdings and YUM!
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Upgrades of Alcoa ( AA ) and Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) by Citigroup ( C ) brought support for the materials stocks, and an upgrade of Schnitzer Steel ( SCHN ) by UBS ( UBS ) helped steel stocks. Energy stocks did well yesterday, as did other commodity-based stocks. Volume on the NYSE approached 1.2 billion shares, with advancers over decliners by more than 3-to-1.
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1896.0
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2010-01-18 00:00:00 UTC
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Investors Are Missing an Obvious Opportunity in Citigroup
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/investors-are-missing-obvious-opportunity-citigroup-2010-01-18
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nan
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nan
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Amit Chokshi submits:
Choppy start to earnings season
The first few days of 2010 started off impressively with equity markets broadly rallying. However, this past week, earnings season started in earnest with results from highly followed companies such as Alcoa ( AA ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) demonstrating that market valuations may have gotten ahead of business fundamentals. AA's report demonstrated that demand remains tepid and the miss relative to Street expectations indicates investors may have gotten a bit enthusiastic with regards to the economic recovery. In the case of JPM, investors were expecting news that credit troubles for JPM and the broader banking sector may be improving. Unfortunately, Q4 09 results showed just a mild drop in provisioning levels relative to Q3 09, suggesting the banking sector could still face troubles well into 2010.
Results from AA and JPM demonstrate that there are a number of persistent problems which make the underpinnings of the current equity market shaky. What investors generally observed in 2009 were a number of positive economic surprises, particularly in areas like GDP figures. For example, in Q2 09, reported GDP was -1.0%. As bad an absolute number as this was, the expectation was for -1.5% and as a result, markets continued to rally. In addition, the -1.0% was the Advance GDP figure and by the time the Third GDP figure was released, the Bureau of Economic Analysis ("BEA") found that Q2 09 GDP was actually even better than the Advance report, with growth of -0.7%.
The BEA releases three sets of GDP figures, refining them over time. The Third Report, which is released around the end of the following quarter (so for Q2 2009, the Third Report would be released in September 2009), is the most accurate, but the market seems to emphasize the Advance Report, which is released in the first month after the quarter ends, the most. As a result, the least accurate figure can have the largest market impact.
While Q2 09 GDP came in much better than expected, Q3 09 GDP figures exhibited considerable choppiness. Q3 09 GDP figures initially came in at 3.5%, which was a stunning surprise to many investors and encouraged them to extrapolate a potentially stronger recovery in 2010. The "V-Shapers" would be proven right. Unfortunately, the Second Report of Q3 09 was revised down to 2.8% while the Third (and final) Q3 09 GDP report was revised down even further to just 2.2%. However, as bad as this revision was, a large driver of Q3 09 weakness was due to timing of inventory destocking so Q4 09 GDP could come in at 4% or higher.
However, 2010 could pose a big challenge in keeping this momentum going. A lot of the current GDP performance has been due to changes in inventory liquidation. Early on during the economic crisis, businesses aggressively liquidated inventory. That pace of liquidation should have slowed markedly by Q4 09 and should start to pick up, which is why GDP growth in the second half of 2009 is expected to be fairly strong. This is typical of most business recoveries but with a crippled financial sector and hobbled consumer, the pace of recovery after inventory levels are stabilized could be anemic.
Q4 09 could be the high water mark for GDP growth as unemployment continues to rise. While unemployment appears to be holding steady at 10%, investors should note that U-6, which is the broadest definition of unemployment, continues to rise. What this means is that marginally attached workers, who are not represented in the official unemployment figure (U-3), will return as the economy recovers, making it difficult to experience a meaningful drop in unemployment. Persistently high unemployment combined with a leveraged consumer and crippled financial sector makes the prospects for a broad market rally in 2010 more dubious. Nonetheless, there are still opportunities available to investors and managers that can reconcile economic conditions with fundamental, company-specific factors.
Don't miss the obvious
The financial media all too often emphasizes economic news and its impact on the markets. Even the format and presentation of the shows are designed to create casino-like excitement with the colors and flashing news alerts that encourage viewers to trade themselves silly. While I believe today's markets lend themselves to a higher degree of active trading, there are still attractive long-term opportunities for investors who let their fund managers stretch their legs (provided they are real active managers and not closet-indexers) and can endure some degree of tracking error in exchange for a higher internal rate of return ("IRR").
Emphasizing tracking error, or deviation from the benchmark, can lead investors and managers into stupid decisions because of fear of falling behind their benchmark. As a result, a stock may have rallied 50% off its historical lows and a fund manager may sell it, following typical advice of "taking some chips off the table" because he/she does not want to risk having the stock roll back a bit and negatively impact his/her results. However, those that did that in recent months missed out on much larger gains as many stocks went up three-fold or more.
Because I run a fairly concentrated portfolio in my hedge fund and managed accounts, I tell my partners that I focus on IRR. This is in part due to the concentrated portfolio as well as my preference to at times emphasize specific companies and sectors. As a result, some companies may offer an astounding bargain but remain undervalued for a period of time while the broader markets rally. I can personally attest that this can be excruciating for fund managers and oftentimes can lead them to deviate from the best values to stay close to their benchmark. However, if an investor is with a fund manager that can really analyze a company and conduct serious research, then exchanging the mental and emotional hangover of lagging the market in the short-term can lead to superior IRRs.
For example, while the broader market is fair to richly valued on a number of metrics, certain sectors are trading at very cheap levels, particularly on a price to tangible and liquid book value. One can look at the balance sheets of some companies within the refiner and independent power producers, run a liquidation analysis whereby assets are aggressively written down and netted against liabilities, and still have book equity values that are above current share prices. In addition, prices are near historical lows as these sectors did not participate in the 2009 rally.
The obvious bear case is that the economy is struggling and a recovery will be very weak so utilization of energy and power will be very low. That, however, is not really relevant at this point as the prices more than reflect this concern. The stocks in this sector were worth in some cases five times their current value just two years ago. Right now, these sectors are still expecting the worst so even marginal improvements can have outsized impacts on the stock performance.
The challenge, however, is being disciplined and focusing on IRRs rather than tracking error. If a fund manager held a portfolio consisting mainly of power and refinery companies, there's a possibility he/she could lag the markets for 1-2 years. Perhaps the markets increased by 9% for both years one and two while the fund manager was flat. But if in the third year, if the market was up 9%, perhaps the fund manager's concentrated holdings in power and refinery companies were up 100%. In this case, the fund manager's annualized return would be 26%. This is in part why some legendary value investors like Seth Klarman recommend that investors take a three year view on stocks.
Clearly, most managers will have exposure to more than two sectors but the point is that if a stock is currently trading close to its valuation floor while the upper end of its valuation suggests the possibility of a 100+% return, holding the stock for a longer period of time can make sense. The problem is most fund managers won't hold a position for this long for the rightful realization that most investors would pull the plug after 1-2 years of underperformance. What makes it even more challenging is that the securities that present the possibility of large returns are at times the most hated.
This discussion is mainly to present a different way of evaluating some fund managers, particularly those that run active, concentrated portfolios, but also to establish a framework - using IRRs - to evaluate some potential investment opportunities. One specific investment that could be incredibly attractive from this perspective is Citigroup ( C ).
C is hated and ridiculed by the financial media and investors alike as illustrated by its languishing stock price. The current banking crisis and economic issues present considerable headline risk and given what occurred in 2008, investors are snake bitten by many well established financial companies which collapsed. This psychological aspect is in part what contributes to C's attractive current price and investors that can endure some volatility for the next year could do extremely well over the next three to five years. The activities by the Federal Reserve and Treasury established C as Too Big to Fail ("TBTF") and while it is the worst of TBTF entities from an operational aspect, the spread between other TBTF entities and C appears unreasonably wide.
C recently repaid $20B in TARP and its timing - during the slow holiday period in December 2009 - led to a weakly priced offering. While this offering diluted existing equity holders, shares are still well under diluted book value of $5. Right now, shares are trading close to tangible book value but as the crisis ebbs, shares should be valued closer to book value. This makes sense because some of C's components of Tier I Equity include items such as deferred tax assets that may be subject to further writedowns. In addition, as JPM's earnings report illustrated, consumer credit is still a problem and C has significant exposure due to its credit card and home equity loan books.
However, these items are widely known and reflected in C's share price at this point. Another item that is widely known, or should be, is the impact of FAS 166/167. This will require C to bring off-balance sheet items onto its books and may impact Tier I capital by 50-80 basis points. More importantly, when C management elected to repay TARP, management must have felt comfortable about the impact of FAS 167/166 and the overall quality of their assets and potential writedowns whereby C could survive without the government's equity interest. Under TARP, C also had $250B in assets that were ring-fenced in terms of the impact on C's capital position, so management's willingness to exit TARP and the corresponding ring-fence agreement show a level of confidence with respect to C's assets. Credit deterioration is possible but it's important to note that while investors and financial media are focused on all the potential negatives, current valuation imposes a bit of a floor in C prices. More so, there are a number of positive catalysts that may not be given an appropriate weight.
For example, the current steepness in the yield curve makes it easy for banks to make money and replenish capital. C also has a number of impressive franchises such as Banamex and a basic sum of the parts analysis can support a share price far higher than the current $3.40 per share. Also, with expectations so low with respect to credit quality, even slight improvements in results could propel shares. In addition, C does not currently pay a dividend but as credit conditions improve in 2011, C could reinstate its dividend, further supporting a higher valuation.
Ultimately, it's difficult to envision C remaining at these levels for an extended period of time. In two years a case for $8-12 per share could easily be realized. If C reaches the midpoint of $8-12 by the end of 2011, investors that buy C here would enjoy a 73% annualized return. The challenge for investors is taking the initial exposure to a stock that is reviled and possibly missing out on short-term rallies in other parts of the market while C lags in the near-term. While the broader markets do not appear to hold tremendous value, there are some attractive and obvious opportunities available to patient and analytical investors who are not dissuaded by fear of the unknown.
Author's disclosure: Long C.
Original post
See also If I Were Fed Chairman on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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However, this past week, earnings season started in earnest with results from highly followed companies such as Alcoa ( AA ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) demonstrating that market valuations may have gotten ahead of business fundamentals. AA's report demonstrated that demand remains tepid and the miss relative to Street expectations indicates investors may have gotten a bit enthusiastic with regards to the economic recovery. Results from AA and JPM demonstrate that there are a number of persistent problems which make the underpinnings of the current equity market shaky.
|
However, this past week, earnings season started in earnest with results from highly followed companies such as Alcoa ( AA ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) demonstrating that market valuations may have gotten ahead of business fundamentals. AA's report demonstrated that demand remains tepid and the miss relative to Street expectations indicates investors may have gotten a bit enthusiastic with regards to the economic recovery. Results from AA and JPM demonstrate that there are a number of persistent problems which make the underpinnings of the current equity market shaky.
|
However, this past week, earnings season started in earnest with results from highly followed companies such as Alcoa ( AA ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) demonstrating that market valuations may have gotten ahead of business fundamentals. AA's report demonstrated that demand remains tepid and the miss relative to Street expectations indicates investors may have gotten a bit enthusiastic with regards to the economic recovery. Results from AA and JPM demonstrate that there are a number of persistent problems which make the underpinnings of the current equity market shaky.
|
However, this past week, earnings season started in earnest with results from highly followed companies such as Alcoa ( AA ) and JP Morgan ( JPM ) demonstrating that market valuations may have gotten ahead of business fundamentals. AA's report demonstrated that demand remains tepid and the miss relative to Street expectations indicates investors may have gotten a bit enthusiastic with regards to the economic recovery. Results from AA and JPM demonstrate that there are a number of persistent problems which make the underpinnings of the current equity market shaky.
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1897.0
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2010-01-12 00:00:00 UTC
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Is the January Winning Streak Over?
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/january-winning-streak-over-2010-01-12
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nan
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nan
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As January goes, so goes the year, is an old Wall Street adage that's been proven right more often than wrong.
Those who wish to get a head start on their 2010 forecasting tend to look at the first-five days of the January barometer. This pattern has a success rate of 80%+ over the past 38 years. The success rate drops to 50% when looking just at the past two years.
During the first five trading days of 2010, the Dow Jones inched up 1.82%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.68%, while the Nasdaq moved up 2.12%. Based on the first five days, this should be a good year.
Wall Street analysts will tell you the same thing. In fact, according to polls conducted by Barron's and Bloomberg, analysts expect the S&P 500 (NYSEArca: SPY) to gain 12% in 2010.
Investors Intelligence, which tracks the recommendations of newsletter writers and financial advisors, reported on December 29th that a record low of only 15.6% of advisors had a bearish outlook for stocks. This is the lowest reading in over 22 years.
Smooth sailing or calm before the storm?
Wall Street and Main Street obviously believe that the administration averted a deeper economic bruising. Time Magazine's selection of Ben Bernanke as 2009's 'Man of the Year' attests to the deeply ingrained conviction that the worst is over. Never before has a Federal Reserve chairman received this title.
Traders in general and options traders in particular have also reached a level of complacency that hasn't been seen in over 19 months. The last time we saw the VIX as low as today, was in May 2008.
At that time, investors' lack of fear proved to be a pivotal turning point for U.S. (NYSEArca: VTI) and international stocks (NYSEArca: EFA). From May to July, the Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA) lost 2,000 points. After a brief two month period of respite, the Dow went on to lose another 3,500 points.
Extreme bullishness and complacency is certainly not bullish for the market. As a matter of fact, such bullish extremes are one of the most reliable contrarian indicators of an impending correction. How big of a correction? We'll discuss that in a moment.
What will trigger a correction?
Rather than asking what will trigger a correction, we should ask what would push the market higher. Last Friday's unemployment numbers disappointed; yet stocks inched higher.
Economic news dispersed over the past few months has been a mixed bag, yet stocks moved higher. What's next in line to push up stocks; earnings season?
Alcoa's ( AA ) quarterly report signals the beginning of this earnings season. Excluding special items, earnings of a penny a share came in below analyst's expectations of six cents. This is despite a weak U.S. dollar, which is commonly viewed as an advantage for international companies. AA stocks sold off as much as 5% on Monday after the close.
After being revised several times (revised meaning lowered), Q4 estimates for the S&P 500 are $13.47. This is lower than the actual Q3 numbers of $13.51. With expectations at such low levels, it would be a surprise to see no earnings surprises.
But will earnings surprises be enough to lift stocks? Conventional wisdom says yes. The chart below plots the quarterly reported earnings of the S&P 500 (Q4 2009 is an estimate) against the performance of the S&P 500. Even though there's a correlation between the two, earnings do not always drive the stock market.
In fact, a look at the chart above (years 2000, 2002, 2007 and 2008) shows that stocks can and will decline parallel to rising earnings.
Trouble in paradise
Investors willing to take off their blinders have been noticing the disconnect between the economy's true state and the stock market's performance. The economy continues to worsen while stocks continue to rally.
A recent Bloomberg report further emphasizes this disconnect. 'Analysts say earnings at financial companies rose 120% in the fourth quarter, accounting for all of the income increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and will triple by 2010, climbing four times as fast as the market. Should the estimates prove correct, the shares are trading at a 15% discount to the index, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.'
Exactly where bank's profits are coming from, we are not privy to know. What we do know is that banks were able to boost their capital ratio by changing their accounting standards (June 2009 issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter, page 2). William Black, a former bank regulator, considers this type of financial engineering a way to 'exchange trash for cash and turn real losses into faulty gains.'
It seems like the rift between too good to be true banks (also known as too big to fail) and smaller regional banks (NYSEArca: KRE) is becoming more and more pronounced. Major banks (NYSEArca: KBE) and financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF) expect strong profit gains while smaller banks continue to close shop.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is having trouble finding buyers for many of the 130+ banks it seized in 2009. Even though the Fed may agree to cover loan losses, banks are in such poor shape that potential purchasers simply cannot be persuaded to bite.
Should you buy the rumor, sell the news?
Buying the rumor and selling the news is an old piece of Wall Street wisdom, which refers to the fact that the market tends to price in positive news before it becomes public. A stock will often stage a rally leading up to its earnings announcement and sell off thereafter, even if the earnings were positive.
On a broader scale, the stock market may already have priced in better than expected earnings, increasing profits and decreasing unemployment numbers. After all, stocks have rallied nearly 70% in less than ten months, possibly mortgaging the future growth potential.
With the S&P recording five new recovery highs in each of the last five days, a slowing of the uptrend is not visible to the casual observer. Investors willing to take off the blinders, however, will notice that volume and breadth has been declining to a point that's worrisome.
Last week, options traders (considered to be notoriously wrong) bought 2.5 times more call options (betting on a rising market) than put options (betting on a falling market). This is the highest ratio since the year 2000. That year the tech-bubble burst (NYSEArca: XLK) and the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) tumbled 37%.
Y2K - more than just tech
While the tech-bust might be the most well-known event of the year 2000, it is certainly not the most significant. Another index, the only index that measures true value, topped in the year 2000 as well - the Dow Jones measured in gold (NYSEArca: GLD).
The Dow measured in gold reflects how many ounces of gold one share of the Dow is worth. This unique ratio allows investors to evaluate stocks priced in the only currency that hasn't been tampered with, the only true store of value - gold.
The Dow gold peaked in the year 2000 and has been declining ever since. Even as the dollar Dow, and most other indexes, rallied to new highs in 2007, the gold Dow did not, foreshadowing trouble ahead. Today, the dollar Dow is rallying again. The gold Dow is not.
Of course, the gold Dow is not the only way to measure true value. There are other metrics, all of which point towards significantly lower prices. Indicative of their implications, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter has dubbed them the 'Four Horsemen.'
The Four Horsemen are not short-term timing tools, but they provide a reliable long-term outlook. In context, and in comparison with the long-term outlook, it becomes easy to distinguish counter trend rallies from true new bull markets.
Many on Wall Street believe we've entered a new bull market. The Four Horsemen, however, beg to differ. Wall Street's track record in forecasting the market is less than stellar, otherwise we would have heard warnings in 2007 and buy signals in March 2009, but we did not.
Using the Four Horsemen along with other indicators, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter was able to identify the October 2008 meltdown and the rally from the March lows. Each issue of the newsletter includes a short, mid and long-term forecast (including a target range for the ultimate market bottom) and corresponding ETF profit strategies.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) quarterly report signals the beginning of this earnings season. AA stocks sold off as much as 5% on Monday after the close. 'Analysts say earnings at financial companies rose 120% in the fourth quarter, accounting for all of the income increase in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and will triple by 2010, climbing four times as fast as the market.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) quarterly report signals the beginning of this earnings season. AA stocks sold off as much as 5% on Monday after the close. Major banks (NYSEArca: KBE) and financial institutions (NYSEArca: XLF) expect strong profit gains while smaller banks continue to close shop.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) quarterly report signals the beginning of this earnings season. AA stocks sold off as much as 5% on Monday after the close. Buying the rumor and selling the news is an old piece of Wall Street wisdom, which refers to the fact that the market tends to price in positive news before it becomes public.
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Alcoa's ( AA ) quarterly report signals the beginning of this earnings season. AA stocks sold off as much as 5% on Monday after the close. Economic news dispersed over the past few months has been a mixed bag, yet stocks moved higher.
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1898.0
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2009-12-04 00:00:00 UTC
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Understanding the Dollar's Reversal: Who Will Feel the Pain?
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/understanding-dollars-reversal-who-will-feel-pain-2009-12-04
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nan
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nan
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optionMONSTER submits:
By Bryan McCormick
While the government has persisted in avowing a strong dollar policy through the last eight years of decline, it took a better-than-expected unemployment report to turn it around . In some respects, especially for those involved in commodities, this is the very last thing one might want to see happen.
The U.S. Dollar Index is rapidly reversing up to its 50-day moving average, hitting 75.71 at the time of this writing, which has persisted as strong downtrend resistance since a brief peak in April of this year. If the index makes it back above this 50-day average, it would be bullish for the dollar and signal a possible longer-term reversal.
Although no one can ever say how far such reversals might go, it is best to be prepared for what it means. As illustrated by this percentage chart of the S&P 500 versus the dollar, the dollar decline has been bullish for stocks. That could be in the process of changing. But what might happen?
Precious metals are likely to suffer most first. This is largely because of the extreme pessimism against the dollar that drove people into them in the first place and has much to do with the fragility of the recent rally, which now appears to have been pure momentum.
Industrial metals are also vulnerable, particularly copper. That will hit companies such as Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ), which is today is facing the double-whammy of declining precious and industrial metals. Steel makers such as U.S. Steel ( X ) and Alcoa ( AA ) are likely to feel pain as well.
Energy is also likely to move lower as the price of crude, in particular, is so sensitive to the dollar's moves. That will in turn take down many products that depend on oil. Natural gas, which has already been weak, is being hit very hard too. That is taking down the "nitrogen" sector, fertilizer, which is sapping some of the bullish potential out of names such as Potash ( POT ).
So while it might be hard to grasp, sometimes good news can be bad news.
Since a good chunk of market strength was predicated on dollar weakness, the reversal up is good news gone bad. With energy at 11.3 percent of the S&P and materials at 3.59 percent of the index, hits to these sectors could bring strong ripple effects. Add in the overweighting that many funds have in these sectors and the prospect for more pain seems highly probable.
(Chart data provided by Thomson Reuters)
See also Consumer Prices Do the Dipsy Doodle on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Steel makers such as U.S. Steel ( X ) and Alcoa ( AA ) are likely to feel pain as well. optionMONSTER submits: By Bryan McCormick While the government has persisted in avowing a strong dollar policy through the last eight years of decline, it took a better-than-expected unemployment report to turn it around . The U.S. Dollar Index is rapidly reversing up to its 50-day moving average, hitting 75.71 at the time of this writing, which has persisted as strong downtrend resistance since a brief peak in April of this year.
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Steel makers such as U.S. Steel ( X ) and Alcoa ( AA ) are likely to feel pain as well. Since a good chunk of market strength was predicated on dollar weakness, the reversal up is good news gone bad. (Chart data provided by Thomson Reuters) See also Consumer Prices Do the Dipsy Doodle on seekingalpha.com The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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Steel makers such as U.S. Steel ( X ) and Alcoa ( AA ) are likely to feel pain as well. The U.S. Dollar Index is rapidly reversing up to its 50-day moving average, hitting 75.71 at the time of this writing, which has persisted as strong downtrend resistance since a brief peak in April of this year. As illustrated by this percentage chart of the S&P 500 versus the dollar, the dollar decline has been bullish for stocks.
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Steel makers such as U.S. Steel ( X ) and Alcoa ( AA ) are likely to feel pain as well. In some respects, especially for those involved in commodities, this is the very last thing one might want to see happen. The U.S. Dollar Index is rapidly reversing up to its 50-day moving average, hitting 75.71 at the time of this writing, which has persisted as strong downtrend resistance since a brief peak in April of this year.
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1899.0
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2009-12-02 00:00:00 UTC
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Back to Basics with Steel
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AA
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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/back-basics-steel-2009-12-02
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nan
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nan
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optionMONSTER submits:
By Guy Adami
In examining basic materials on Nov. 17, we noted the broad diversity of the sector and focused on the subgroup of chemical manufacturing . Today we will focus on another subcategory, iron and steel.
The steel industry carries images of American sovereignty, with Andrew Carnegie as its crown prince. His dynasty is marked by the merger of Carnegie Steel with Elbert Gary's Federal Steel, which gave birth to U.S. Steel ( X ). One would be remiss to speak of the Carnegie family without mentioning the Mellons. Richard Mellon was the president of the Pittsburgh Reduction Company from 1899 to 1910. In 1907 the company was renamed Alcoa ( AA ).
The Carnegies and the Mellons are as close to royalty as we have here in the United States, and it is no coincidence that both families have their roots in the industry. At one point in this country's history, steel was arguably the most dominant industry on the planet. It is so storied, in fact, that the character of Hyman Roth made this memorable claim to the Corleone family in 1974's "The Godfather Part II": "Michael, we're bigger than U.S. Steel!"
The industry eventually fell on hard times, as underscored when Bethlehem Steel--once the second-largest steel producer in the United States--filed for bankruptcy in 2001. But steel would be back in vogue in a huge way earlier this decade as the global growth story took hold. Nowhere was that more evident than in China, where the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing showed the world an insatiable demand for the metal.
Pohang Iron and Steel
The United States still holds a dominant position in the industry, but the rest of the world is catching up. With that in mind, there are a number of ways to play the industry here at home and abroad--one of them being the Pohang Iron and Steel Company, aka POSCO ( PKX ), headquartered in Pohang, South Korea, now the second-largest steel maker by market value in the world.
Although based abroad, POSCO is involved in a joint venture with U.S. Steel. Since the end of the Korean War and the start of South Korea's "Industry Revolution," POSCO has been the cornerstone of the country's economy. On Oct. 12, when the ADR was trading around $105.50, Goldman Sachs added POSCO to its Conviction Buy List with a price target of $150. The company's next earnings release will be its fourth-quarter announcement on or about Jan. 14.
U.S. Steel
Here at home U.S. Steel remains the most recognized name in the industry, but the Pittsburgh-based integrated steel producer has major operations in Canada and Central Europe as well. On Monday the company was upgraded to "attractive" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs, which added the name to its Conviction Buy List along with POSCO and raised its six-month price target to $54 from $49.
While U.S. Steel reported a third-quarter loss of $2.11 on Oct. 27, some of its metrics seem to be improving. Flat-rolled shipments came in at 2,722, up from 1,815 in the second quarter. In Europe, flat-rolled shipments were 1,285 for the third quarter, up from 1,035. Total steel shipments for the quarter were 4.15 billion tons, up from 2.94 billion in the previous quarter.
The stock made an all-time high of $196 on June 24 2008. But as the credit crisis took hold later in the year, the exit doors from the global growth story became crowded. By March 2009, U.S. Steel was hitting a 52-week low of $16.66. From high to low, that is 91.5 percent move in about nine months. However, despite the fits and starts, U.S. Steel has performed rather nicely since bottoming out earlier this year. (See related story )
ArcelorMittal
ArcelorMittal ( MT ) is the largest steel company in the world. In 2008, MT had crude steel production of 103.3 million tons, representing about 10 percent of the world steel output. ArcelorMittal is the successor of Mittal Steel. The company was founded by Lakshmi Mittal, who remains chairman and CEO.
The growth strategy of MT has been to acquire underperforming assets and turning them around. The proper implementation of that strategy has been the driving force behind the company's unparalleled success.
Today ArcleorMittal is listed on the stock exchanges of Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Luxembourg, New York, and on the Spanish stock exchanges of Barcelona, Bilbao, Madrid, and Valencia. The price action of MT pretty much mirrors the moves we have seen in U.S. Steel.
Nucor
With a production capacity that exceeds 26 million tons, Nucor ( NUE ) is the largest steel producer in the United States. Perhaps more importantly, NUE is the foremost recycler of steel in the world.
On Oct. 22 NUE reported a third-quarter loss of $0.10 per share, better than the $0.16 loss that analysts had expected. At the same time, however, average sales price per ton was down 45 percent from the third quarter of 2008. The company said that there was little improvement in real demand and that economic uncertainty was still very high.
Yesterday the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. steelmakers are downsizing and cutting capacity. According to the article, the downsizing is taking place at plants that have survived previous recessions and consolidation. The article also said U.S. plants are operating at 63 percent of capacity, a significant improvement from the 51 percent a year ago.
The industry found itself in the sportlight on Nov. 3 when Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) announced a deal to acquire Burlington Northern ( BNI ) for $100 per share. And this week the industry got another boost with stronger-than-expected manufacturing and economic data from China and India.
So if you are a believer in the Global Growth Story Part II, then a steel name may have a definite place in your portfolio or trading strategy.
Disclosures: In terms of stocks mentioned, I am long Goldman Sachs ( GS ) and Nucor ( NUE ).
(Charts courtesy of tradeMONSTER )
See also International Royalty Acquisition Could Drag Down Franco-Nevada on seekingalpha.com
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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In 1907 the company was renamed Alcoa ( AA ). optionMONSTER submits: By Guy Adami In examining basic materials on Nov. 17, we noted the broad diversity of the sector and focused on the subgroup of chemical manufacturing . It is so storied, in fact, that the character of Hyman Roth made this memorable claim to the Corleone family in 1974's "The Godfather Part II": "Michael, we're bigger than U.S.
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In 1907 the company was renamed Alcoa ( AA ). With that in mind, there are a number of ways to play the industry here at home and abroad--one of them being the Pohang Iron and Steel Company, aka POSCO ( PKX ), headquartered in Pohang, South Korea, now the second-largest steel maker by market value in the world. On Oct. 12, when the ADR was trading around $105.50, Goldman Sachs added POSCO to its Conviction Buy List with a price target of $150.
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In 1907 the company was renamed Alcoa ( AA ). His dynasty is marked by the merger of Carnegie Steel with Elbert Gary's Federal Steel, which gave birth to U.S. Steel ( X ). With that in mind, there are a number of ways to play the industry here at home and abroad--one of them being the Pohang Iron and Steel Company, aka POSCO ( PKX ), headquartered in Pohang, South Korea, now the second-largest steel maker by market value in the world.
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In 1907 the company was renamed Alcoa ( AA ). The Carnegies and the Mellons are as close to royalty as we have here in the United States, and it is no coincidence that both families have their roots in the industry. Steel!"
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