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709100.0 | 2020-05-12 00:00:00 UTC | The RBNZ Sinks the Kiwi Dollar as the Focus Shifts to the GBP and GDP Numbers | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-rbnz-sinks-the-kiwi-dollar-as-the-focus-shifts-to-the-gbp-and-gdp-numbers-2020-05-13 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, and the Japanese Yen were in focus in the early part of the day.
Away from the calendar, COVID-19 updates also provided direction early on. Concerns over a possible 2nd wave of new COVID-19 cases continued to test risk appetite early in the day.
Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers,
On Tuesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 81,022 to 4,337,562. On Monday, the number of new cases had risen by 76,701. The daily increase was higher than Monday’s rise, while lower than an 81,537 increase on the previous Tuesday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 4,176 new cases on Tuesday, which was down from 5.374 new cases on Monday. On the previous Tuesday, 4,993 new cases had been reported.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 22,740 to 1,408,574 on Tuesday. On Monday, the total number of cases had risen by 18.196. On Tuesday, 5th May, the total new number of cases had risen by 25,189.
For the Japanese Yen
The current account surplus narrowed from ¥3.169tn to ¥1.971tn in March. Economists had forecast a narrowing to ¥2.211tn.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.156 to ¥1.7.190 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥107.23 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
Consumer sentiment improved in May, with the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rising by 16.4% to 88.1. In April, the index had fallen by 17.7% to 75.6. Economists had forecast a 14% fall to 65.0.
According to the latest Westpac Report,
Following the largest monthly decline in the 47-year history of the survey, May’s rebound was the largest monthly gain in the survey history.
Looking at the sub-components:
The economy, next 12-months sub-index jumped by 32.6% to 71.2, with the time to buy a major household item surging by 26.7%.
Time to buy a dwelling jumped by 31.8%, with the House Price Expectations Index rising by 4.6%.
Family finances vs a year ago rose by 5.5% to 74.3, with family finances next 12 months rising by 12.2% to 102.0.
The economy next 5-years increased by 10.7%, with the Unemployment Expectations Index sliding by 13.4% to 136.9.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64648 to $0.64791 upon release of the figures that preceded 1st quarter wage growth figures.
In the 1st quarter, wages grew by 0.5%, following on from a 0.5% rise in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.5% rise.
According to the ABS, wage growth slowed to 2.1% over the year.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64651 to $0.64614 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.15% to $0.6461.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The RBNZ was in action in the earlier part of the day and held cash rates unchanged at 0.25%, which was in line with market expectations.
Salient points from the RBNZ Rate Statement included:
The Committee agreed to expand the Large Scale Asset Purchase Programme potential from NZ$33bn to NZ$60bn.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, lower economic growth, employment and inflation are expected to persist.
Even if NZ successfully contains the virus locally, the reduced global activity will mean lower demand for NZ exports.
The balance of economic risks remains to the downside, with the Committee expecting retail interest rates to decline further.
If required, the Committee is prepared to use additional monetary policy tools, including reducing the OCR further. Other options include a term lending facility, and adding other asset classes to the LSAP programme.
In terms of the economic outlook, the Committee discussed 3 scenarios, all of which involved a material and an unprecedented decline in economic activity and employment.
It was also noted that more stimulus is needed to support a medium-term recovery
Members noted that fiscal stimulus is the main thing needed to support the economy, with monetary policy to provide secondary support.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60833 to $0.60461 upon release of the rate statement and monetary policy statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.69% to $0.6036, with the RBNZ press conference up next.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. March industrial production figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.
Following the alarming numbers from Germany last week, the markets aren’t expecting anything but a sharp decline.
Expect the figures to have a muted impact on the EUR.
Through the middle of the week, the market focus will remain on COVID-19 updates. A continued rise in new cases across Asia would be EUR negative.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.0853.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. In the early part of the day, April retail sales figures were in focus.
The BRC Retail Sales Monitor rose by 5.7%, year-on-year, following a 3.5% decline in March, supported by online retailers. The headline figure excludes the effect of temporary store closures.
Online non-food product sales jumped by 57.9%. In stark contrast, total retail sales plunged by 19.1% as a result of the April lockdown. This was the largest decline since records began.
Later in the day, March Manufacturing production and 1st quarter GDP numbers are due out later today.
While the markets are expecting some dire numbers, the Pound will likely come under pressure in response to the numbers.
Industrial production and trade data, also due out later today, will likely have a muted impact on the Pound.
Away from the stats, expect updates on Brexit negotiations and COVID-19 plans to also influence on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.08% to $1.2270.
Across the Pond
It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar
Key stats include April wholesale inflation figures. The numbers are unlikely to have a material influence, however. Falling input and output prices are likely to weigh heavily on headline figures amidst the April lockdown.
Outside of the numbers, COVID-19 news and chatter from the U.S administration will also need monitoring.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.07% to 99.999 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on theeconomic calendar with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.
Expect OPEC’s monthly report and the weekly EIA inventory numbers from the U.S to influence. While the markets are expecting the talk of production cuts to continue, inventory builds will need to slow.
There is also the issue of a possible 2nd wave of the coronavirus that could weigh heavily on the demand outlook.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.14% to C$1.4059 against the U.S Dollar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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Crude Oil Price Update – Momentum Could Shift Lower Under $32.77
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar The RBNZ was in action in the earlier part of the day and held cash rates unchanged at 0.25%, which was in line with market expectations. Across the Pond It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include April wholesale inflation figures. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Testing Major Resistance Euro Boosted by Huge EU Stimulus Plan Crude Oil Price Update – Momentum Could Shift Lower Under $32.77 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers, On Tuesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 81,022 to 4,337,562. The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60833 to $0.60461 upon release of the rate statement and monetary policy statement. Across the Pond It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include April wholesale inflation figures. | The Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, and the Japanese Yen were in focus in the early part of the day. Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers, On Tuesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 81,022 to 4,337,562. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64648 to $0.64791 upon release of the figures that preceded 1st quarter wage growth figures. | The Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, and the Japanese Yen were in focus in the early part of the day. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64648 to $0.64791 upon release of the figures that preceded 1st quarter wage growth figures. In the early part of the day, April retail sales figures were in focus. | e3516413-009b-4201-8eb3-a123d27eca68 |
709101.0 | 2020-05-11 00:00:00 UTC | The Greenback Finds early Support. Economic Data to Play 2nd Fiddle to COVID-19 News | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-greenback-finds-early-support.-economic-data-to-play-2nd-fiddle-to-covid-19-news-2020 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in focus in the early part of the day, along with inflation figures from China.
Away from the calendar, COVID-19 updates provided direction early on. Concerns over a possible 2nd wave of new COVID-19 cases tested risk appetite early in the day. As lockdown measures ease, both China and South Korea have reported new clusters at the start of the week.
Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers,
On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 63,120 to 4,242,959. On Sunday, the number of new cases had risen by 78,198. The daily increase was far lower than Sunday’s rise and lower than a 74,217 increase on the previous Monday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 5,315 new cases on Monday, which was up from 3.549 new cases on Sunday. On the previous Monday, 3,642 new cases had been reported. A rise in the number of cases in Spain led to the uptick.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 13,704 to 1,381,342 on Monday. On Sunday, the total number of cases had risen by 20,329. On Monday, 4th May, the total new number of cases had risen by 22,145.
For the Aussie Dollar
Business confidence figures for April were in focus early in the day. The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from a record low -66 to –46 in April.
While confidence saw a pickup from March record lows, the business conditions index fell from -22 to -34. The Employment Index slid by 15 points to -35, which is aligned with the April employment forecasts due out on Thursday.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64435 to $0.64372 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.80% to $0.6437.
Out of China
Inflationary pressures eased in April. The annual rate of inflation softened from 4.30% to 3.30%, with consumer prices falling by 0.9%, month-on-month. Economists had forecast an annual rate of inflation of 3.7%.
Wholesale deflationary pressures picked up in April, with wholesale prices falling by 3.1% year-on-year. In March, wholesale prices had fallen by 1.5%.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.14% to ¥107.51 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.33% to $0.6060.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
The lack of stats leaves the EUR in the hands of chatter from Brussels and geopolitical risk on the day.
For the EUR, Brussels will need to look more likely than not to deliver a more sizeable stimulus package. An easing in lockdown measures would also need to continue.
One issue that governments will need to consider, however, is the threat of the 2nd wave of infections.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.17% to $1.0789.
For the Pound
It’s also another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
Updates from the UK government on plans to ease lockdown measures and Brexit will remain key drivers near-term.
With the UK government announcing plans to ease certain lockdown measures in July, the Pound and the economy is likely to come under more pressure.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.24% to $1.2305.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar
Key stats include April inflation figures. The numbers are unlikely to have a material influence, however. Falling crude oil prices and lockdown measures will see deflationary pressures build, which is expected by the markets.
Outside of the numbers, chatter from Beijing and Washington will also be in focus on the day. There is also the fear of a jump in new COVID-19 cases as governments ease lockdown measures.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.12% to 100.359 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.
News of a rise in new cases in China and South Korea has weighed on risk sentiment, however. A 2nd wave would be catastrophic for the global economy and weigh heavily on the demand outlook for crude…
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.36% to C$1.4058 against the U.S Dollar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Updates from the UK government on plans to ease lockdown measures and Brexit will remain key drivers near-term. A 2nd wave would be catastrophic for the global economy and weigh heavily on the demand outlook for crude… At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.36% to C$1.4058 against the U.S Dollar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Testing Top of Range GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Breaks Resistance U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Testing Major Retracement Zone at 99.245 – 98.130 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Away from the calendar, COVID-19 updates provided direction early on. For the Aussie Dollar Business confidence figures for April were in focus early in the day. Across the Pond It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include April inflation figures. | For the Aussie Dollar Business confidence figures for April were in focus early in the day. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Testing Top of Range GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Breaks Resistance U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Testing Major Retracement Zone at 99.245 – 98.130 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Concerns over a possible 2nd wave of new COVID-19 cases tested risk appetite early in the day. For the Aussie Dollar Business confidence figures for April were in focus early in the day. At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.17% to $1.0789. | b3bba4d1-c0d7-40ce-8707-5b84c972a94a |
709102.0 | 2020-05-06 00:00:00 UTC | The Euro is Knocked Back Further | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-euro-is-knocked-back-further-2020-05-06-0 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
European bourses opened higher but made little headway before some profit-taking set in, while US shares are trading higher. Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer, and the US Treasury yield is near 67 bp and is approaching the upper end of its recent range.
The yield has not closed above here since April 14. Despite the German court ruling yesterday, peripheral European bonds are not under pressure, and in fact, the Italian premium has narrowed a little. The dollar remains firm against most of the major currencies. The yen is resilient and Japanese markets re-open tomorrow.
The dollar bloc is little changed, but the euro and sterling are under heavy. The euro slipped below $1.08 in the European morning, and sterling was sold below $1.24.
Among emerging markets, the South Korean won is the strongest, though foreigners were net sellers of its equities today. The South African rand was resisting the dollar’s tug but has since turned weaker. On the other hand, South African bonds continued yesterday’s recovery.
Despite the recent downgrades and being dropped from the FTSE World Government Index, foreign investors have returned to South Africa’s bond market, and its bond sales yesterday were oversubscribed. Gold is hovering a little above $1700. June WTI, which traded near $10 a barrel early last week, briefly poked above $26 today before setting back to $24 and is now near the middle of the session’s range.
Asia Pacific
China’s mainland markets re-opened from the May Day holiday. When the local markets were shut on April 30, the dollar was at about CNY7.0635. The offshore yuan had weakened in the meantime. The US dollar rose from around CNH7.0815 on April 30 to close yesterday near CNH7.1225. The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate against the yuan at CNY7.0690, which was a bit weaker than the CNY7.0720 that the models projected. The dollar fell to CNH7.10, as three-day low before recovering.
There is little evidence that Chinese officials are seeking to express their frustration with the escalation of US rhetoric over the virus or Taiwan through the exchange rate. On the other hand, the dramatic decline in energy prices is another hurdle to China fulfilling the trade agreement with the US, which seemed to have been a stretch under normal circumstances.
Australia appears to have reported an 8.5% surge in March retail sales, as households stockpiled. However, prices jumped in Q1, and when retail sales are adjusted for price changes, the Q1 performance is not impressive. In real terms, retail sales rose by 0.7% in Q1 after a 0.5% increase in Q4 19. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey expected a 1.8% increase. Separately, New Zealand reported the jobless rate rose to 4.2% in Q1 from 4.0% in Q4 19. Employment rose 0.7% in the quarter while economists had expected a 0.2% decline. Private wage growth slows.
The dollar is trading heavily against the yen for the fourth consecutive session and has gained only once in 11 sessions. It slipped to almost JPY106.20 today, its weakest level since March 17. It is fraying the band of support that appeared to have been built in the JPY106.40-JPY106.60 area, which now becomes resistance. Some are linking the yen’s persistence to repatriation from US derivatives such as collateralized loan obligations.
However, our understanding was that most of these purchases were funded with dollar borrowings or swaps. The Australian dollar finished last week near $0.6420. It firmed slightly over the past two sessions but has stalled a cent below last week’s highs (~$0.6570). Watch the $0.6400 area, where the 20-day moving average is found. It has not closed below this moving average since April 3.
Europe
The flash PMI reports steal most of the thunder from the final estimates. The new information today is the German factory orders for March, which were weaker than expected, falling 15.6%, half again as much as the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey anticipated (-10%). The eurozone retail sales for March were also reported. They fell 11.2% on the month, more than the 10.6% decline expected.
The final PMI eurozone as a whole ticked up from the flash. The service component stands at 12 rather than 11.7, but still off from 26.4 in March. The composite edged up to 13.6 from 13.5, but it means virtually nothing given the 29.7 reading in March. German services and composite PMI were revised higher from the flash while France’s reports were revised slightly lower. Italy came in a little better than expected, and by that, we mean that the drop was a smidgeon smaller than expected, while Spain’s showed a larger decline than expected.
The euro was unable to recover much after falling from around $1.09 to about $1.0825 in response to the German Constitutional Court ruling yesterday, and it has been sold further today. A trap was laid by the court. It is not as simple as complying with a German court’s demand, as many observers seem to think.
If the ECB provides the justifications that its Public Sector Purchase Program is indeed a proportionate response, it concedes that the German court can overrule the European Court of Justice. This would set a dangerous precedent, most immediately for the likes of Hungary and Poland. They are already at odds with the ECJ over the independence of the judiciary, for example.
On the other hand, if the ECB were not to provide the justification, then it would leave the Bundesbank in an awkward position. Could it ignore the German Constitutional Court and continue to buy bonds under the PSPP program? The Germany court claimed that the ECJ had overstepped its authority (ultra vires).
The PSPP program accounts for less than a quarter of the ECB’s current purchases, success here will likely encourage challenges of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, which is not bound by the capital key. Also, troubling was the German Court’s urging of the German government and parliament to challenge the ECB.
Even Bundesbank President Wiedmann, who wanted to ECB to adhere to the German Court’s demand for formal justification of its purchases, tried to defend the ECB’s independence. It begs the question, not of monetary or fiscal union, but the need for a legal union, and perhaps, a reaffirmation of the primacy of EU law over national law.
The euro has been sold below $1.08 in the European morning. It is at its lowest level since April 24 when it reached almost $1.0725. The low from late March was set near $1.0635, and the risk of a retest is growing. Resistance is now seen near $1.0850. Sterling also traded at its lowest level since April 24 when it briefly took out the $1.2360 area. It is slightly heavier than the euro. There is an option for about GBP325 mln at $1.2400 that expires today. Initial resistance is in the $1.2400-$1.2420 area.
America
Three US reports attract attention today. First is the ADP private-sector jobs estimate. Millions of jobs were lost in April, and the ADP will give some clue as to the magnitude ahead of the national figures on Friday. Something on the magnitude of 21 mln job loss is expected. Second, the US Treasury will announce the details of its quarterly refunding that is expected to boost the size and also re-introduce a 20-year bond. Third, the EIA oil inventory figures will be watched, following the API estimate of an 8.4 mln barrel build, the smallest since late March.
Oil prices are extending their recovery. The five-day rally coming into today is the longest in over a year. Most of the talk is about reductions in supply, and many expect that US inventory growth slowed for the third consecutive week. The EIA estimated that oil stocks rose almost 9 mln barrels in the week to April 24. Near $28.35, the June WTI contract would meet a (38.2%) retracement objective of this year’s decline. Reports suggest some shale producers they could start up again if crude were above $30.
Brazil’s currency and equity markets are among the worst performers so far this year. The currency is off 27%, and the stock market has fallen 30%. The central bank meets later today and is expected to cut the Selic rate again as the economy has deteriorated sharply. Inflation expectations had dropped since the last meeting when the officials had thought they provided enough stimulus. Although most economists expect a 50 bp rate cut, the market appears to in between a 50 and 75 bp cut.
Yesterday, Brazil reported March industrial output. The median forecast in the Bloomberg survey was a sharp 3.7% decline. Instead, it plummeted by 9.1%. The IBGE measure of CPI will be released later in the week. It is expected to fall to around 2.5% from 3.3% in March. Fitch cut its outlook for Brazil’s BB- rating to negative late yesterday. It cited the economic weakness, fiscal efforts, and tensions between President Bolsonaro and Congress. The virus contagion is spreading, and the economic situation is likely to get worse.
The US dollar is trading within yesterday’s range against the Canadian dollar after finding support in front of CAD1.40. Yesterday’s high was just shy of CAD1.4100. Firm equities warn of the risk that the greenback is sold through CAD1.40 today. A low near CAD1.3930 was seen at the end of last week. Meanwhile, the US dollar is also pushing near yesterday’s high against the Mexican peso near MXN24.17 in the European morning. The intraday technicals suggest it may hold, but if it doesn’t, the risk is for MXN24.40. Support is seen in the MXN23.60-MXN23.80 area.
This article was written by Marc Chandler, MarctoMarket.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | June WTI, which traded near $10 a barrel early last week, briefly poked above $26 today before setting back to $24 and is now near the middle of the session’s range. The new information today is the German factory orders for March, which were weaker than expected, falling 15.6%, half again as much as the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey anticipated (-10%). This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: EU Fiscal Stimulus News and Economic Data in Focus Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Smash Into Major Resistance Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 19/05/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | On the other hand, South African bonds continued yesterday’s recovery. The EIA estimated that oil stocks rose almost 9 mln barrels in the week to April 24. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: EU Fiscal Stimulus News and Economic Data in Focus Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Smash Into Major Resistance Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 19/05/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The new information today is the German factory orders for March, which were weaker than expected, falling 15.6%, half again as much as the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey anticipated (-10%). The euro was unable to recover much after falling from around $1.09 to about $1.0825 in response to the German Constitutional Court ruling yesterday, and it has been sold further today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: EU Fiscal Stimulus News and Economic Data in Focus Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Smash Into Major Resistance Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 19/05/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The eurozone retail sales for March were also reported. The EIA estimated that oil stocks rose almost 9 mln barrels in the week to April 24. It is expected to fall to around 2.5% from 3.3% in March. | 8e5790d7-6e4c-48be-baab-6e6d8ad14f1a |
709103.0 | 2020-05-05 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data and Geopolitics Keep the EUR and Greenback in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-and-geopolitics-keep-the-eur-and-greenback-in-focus-2020-05-06 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
Following positive sentiment across the global financial markets on Tuesday, market attention returned to tensions between China and the U.S.
China markets had been closed since the start of May, which had limited the market reaction to the blame game.
Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers,
On Tuesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 81,537 to 3,720,873. On Monday, the number of new cases had risen by 74,217. The daily increase was higher than Monday’s rise and a 75,118 increase on the previous Tuesday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 4,993 new cases on Tuesday, which was up from 3,642 new cases on Monday. On the previous Tuesday, 6,060 new cases had been reported. Germany reported just 569 news cases, marking a 4th consecutive day of sub-1,000.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 25,189 to 1,235,456 on Tuesday. On Monday, the total number of cases had risen by 22,145. On Tuesday, 28th April, the total new number of cases had risen by 25,258.
For the Kiwi Dollar
1st quarter employment figures were in focus in the early part of the day.
Employment increased by 0.70% in the 1st quarter, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate from 4.0% to 4.2%. In the 4th quarter, employment had remained unchanged, quarter-on-quarter.
Economists had forecast a 0.3% decline in employment and an unemployment rate of 4.3%.
According to NZ Stats,
There was a sharp rise in the number of jobseeker benefit claims at the end of March and early April. This suggests a marked increase in the unemployment rate in the June quarter.
The underutilization rate increased from an 11-year low 10.0% to 10.4% in the 1st quarter, while down by 11.3% year-on-year.
Seasonally adjusted, the employment rate rose from 67.3% to 67.5% in the 1st quarter, hovering close to its peak of 68.0%.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60626 to $0.60628 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was flat at $0.6052.
For the Aussie Dollar
Retail sales jumped by 8.5% in March, month-on-month, following a 0.5% rise in February. Economists had forecast an 8.2% surge.
According to the ABS,
COVID-19 led to an unprecedented surge in demand for food (+24.1%), household goods (+9.1%), and other retailing (+16.6%).
Social distancing led to a marked sales decline in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services (-22.9%).
Discretionary spending in clothing, footwear, and personal accessory retailing (-22.6%), and department stores (-8.9%) were also weak.
Records were broken in the month, with spending on food retailing seeing the largest rise on record. By contrast, the sales fall in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food was the largest decline on record.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64261 to $0.64307 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.03% to $0.6429.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.23% to ¥106.33 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Following Monday’s dire manufacturing PMI numbers, Italy and Spain’s April Services PMIs are in focus later this morning.
Finalized Service and Composite PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
From Germany and the Eurozone, March factory orders and retail sales figures are due out but will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.
While we will expect the PMIs to be of influence, the continued easing of lockdown measures and fall in new cases remains EUR positive.
A V-Shaped economic recovery is not expected, however, which will continue to limit any upside for the EUR.
Expect market risk appetite to play a hand, however. Any chatter from Beijing or Washington will influence. There is also the issue of a COVID-19 stimulus package to consider, with EU member states needing to deliver.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.01% to $1.0839.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. April construction PMI figures are due out later today.
The PMI is forecasted to tumble from 39.3 to 22.2 in April, which would pressure the Pound.
Outside of the numbers, however, there are trade talks with the U.S, Brexit negotiations, and lockdown measures to consider.
A trade agreement with the U.S would certainly remove a large degree of uncertainty that has plagued the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.2437.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. April’s ADP employment change figures are due out later today.
While the markets are all too aware of the surge in jobless claims through April, the headline figure will likely be alarming.
Expect the headline figure to affect risk appetite later in the day.
Outside of the numbers, chatter from Beijing and Washington will continue to influence.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.08% to 99.790 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a particularly quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of risk sentiment and the weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.04% to C$1.4055 against the U.S Dollar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | From Germany and the Eurozone, March factory orders and retail sales figures are due out but will likely have a muted impact on the EUR. While we will expect the PMIs to be of influence, the continued easing of lockdown measures and fall in new cases remains EUR positive. A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of risk sentiment and the weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers. | Social distancing led to a marked sales decline in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services (-22.9%). By contrast, the sales fall in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food was the largest decline on record. While we will expect the PMIs to be of influence, the continued easing of lockdown measures and fall in new cases remains EUR positive. | Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers, On Tuesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 81,537 to 3,720,873. For the Kiwi Dollar 1st quarter employment figures were in focus in the early part of the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Update – Daily Chart Shows Plenty of Room to Upside with $35.18 Next Major Target AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Toy With Same Area Crude Oil Forecast – It’s Make Or Break For the Oil Bulls The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar 1st quarter employment figures were in focus in the early part of the day. Economists had forecast a 0.3% decline in employment and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. While we will expect the PMIs to be of influence, the continued easing of lockdown measures and fall in new cases remains EUR positive. | 137d7ef2-6750-4e1a-a656-35e68c0298b0 |
709104.0 | 2020-05-05 00:00:00 UTC | COVID-19 Updates Support Riskier Assets as the RBA Stands Pat. ISM Numbers Be A Will Test Later | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/covid-19-updates-support-riskier-assets-as-the-rba-stands-pat.-ism-numbers-be-a-will-test | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
While geopolitical risk has returned to haunt the markets, COVID-19 numbers were market positive this morning.
Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers,
On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 74,217 to 3,639,336. On Sunday, the number of new cases had risen by 80,636. While down from Sunday, this was up marginally from a 66,953 increase on the previous Monday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 3,642 new cases on Monday, which was down from 3,938 new cases on Sunday. France and Germany reported just 769 and 473 news cases respectively.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 22,145 to 1,210,267 on Monday. On Sunday, the total number of cases had risen by 27,348. On Monday, 27th April, the total new number of cases had risen by 23,699.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Buildings consents slumped by 21.3% in March, month-on-month, reversing a 5.7% rise in February. According to NZ Stats, this was the largest monthly fall since October 2008.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60458 to $0.60475 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.17% to $0.6058.
For the Aussie Dollar
The RBA was in action in the early part of the day. In line with market expectations, the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.
Salient points from the RBA rate statement included:
The Bank has scaled back the size and frequency of bond purchases as a result of the improved functioning of the bond markets.
In spite of the pullback, the Bank is prepared to scale-up these purchases. It will also do whatever is necessary to ensure bond markets remain functional and to achieve the yield target for 3-year AGS.
In support of maintaining low funding costs and deliver credit support, the Bank broadened the range of eligible collateral to include:
Aussie Dollar securities issued by non-bank corporations with an investment-grade credit rating.
The Board considered a range of scenarios for the Australian economic outlook at the meeting. In the baseline scenario, output falls by around 10% over the 1st half of 2020 and by 6% for 2020, followed by a 6% recovery in 2021.
Fiscal and monetary policy measures have supported the 2021 bounce back forecast.
Within the baseline scenario, the Bank forecasts unemployment to peak at around 10% and to remain above 7% at the end of 2021.
Deviation from the forecasts will depend upon the speed with which containment measures are eased.
Inflation is expected to turn negative in the 2nd quarter and forecasted to pick up to between 1% and 1.5% in 2021.
The board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2-3% target band.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64478 to $0.64353 upon release of the statement. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.19% to $0.6440.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.10% to ¥106.63 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Following some quite dire PMI numbers, Spanish unemployment change figures are in focus early in the session.
While the numbers tend to have a limited impact on the EUR, another surge in unemployment would be EUR negative.
Outside of the numbers, however, market risk sentiment will remain a key driver. Expect any chatter from Washington and Beijing to influence. There is also the latest COVID-19 numbers and any chatter from Brussels on an aid package to also consider.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.0902.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized April service PMI figures are due out later today.
Barring a material deviation from prelim, however, the finalized PMI should have a muted impact on the Pound.
We will expect chatter from the UK government on lockdown measures and any progress reports on trade talks with the U.S to be the key drivers.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.2458.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats include finalized Markit Service PMIs and the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April.
March trade figures are also due out, though it will likely be brushed aside by the markets.
The markets are anticipating some dire ISM numbers for April. Avoiding sub-30 levels will be key, however…
Outside of the numbers, expect chatter from Beijing and Washington to continue to influence.
There are also lockdown easing plans and the latest COVID-19 numbers to also consider on the day.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 99.465 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with March trade figures in focus.
While we continue to expect pre-April stats to have limited impact, there will be some interest in today’s numbers… A widening in the deficit ahead of April’s global lockdown would pressure the Loonie.
Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices and market risk appetite will remain the key drivers.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was up by 0.12% to C$1.4070 against the U.S Dollar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | We will expect chatter from the UK government on lockdown measures and any progress reports on trade talks with the U.S to be the key drivers. Key stats include finalized Markit Service PMIs and the market’s preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for April. While we continue to expect pre-April stats to have limited impact, there will be some interest in today’s numbers… A widening in the deficit ahead of April’s global lockdown would pressure the Loonie. | Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers, On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 74,217 to 3,639,336. Finalized April service PMI figures are due out later today. For the Loonie It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with March trade figures in focus. | The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar were in action in the early part of the day. Looking at the latest coronavirus numbers, On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 74,217 to 3,639,336. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. | At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.19% to $0.6440. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Outside of the numbers, however, market risk sentiment will remain a key driver. | 0331b202-080d-4742-8117-849b2f236e4a |
709105.0 | 2020-04-30 00:00:00 UTC | Risk Aversion Drives Dollar Demand as Market Sentiment towards the Economic Outlook Dims | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/risk-aversion-drives-dollar-demand-as-market-sentiment-towards-the-economic-outlook-dims | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
Outside of the numbers, yet more dire economic data from the U.S tested risk sentiment in the early part of the day.
The weak numbers overshadowed the positive sentiment towards COVID-19 treatment drug remdesivir that had fueled Wednesday’s rally in the U.S.
New coronavirus cases continued to rise throughout the week. The markets were focused elsewhere, however, with government plans to ease lockdown measures unwavering.
On Thursday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 89,675 to 3,301,792. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 77,918. The number of new cases was also higher than the previous Thursday’s 80,696 increase.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 7,182 new cases on Thursday. On Wednesday, the number of new cases had risen by 8,651. France reported just 758 new cases, with Spain and Italy also seeing a downtrend from Wednesday.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 30,883 to 1,094,400 on Thursday. This was up from 27,752 new cases on Wednesday. On the previous Thursday, the total number of new cases had risen by 30,926.
For the Japanese Yen
Inflation figures were in focus this morning.
The Ku-area of Tokyo saw deflationary pressures return, with core consumer prices fall by 0.1% year-on-year. Economists had forecast a core annual rate of inflation of 0.1%, following 0.4% in March. The annual rate of inflation eased from 0.4% to 0.2% in April.
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication.
Prices for education (-8.1%) and fuel, light, and water charges (-2.5%) pinned back inflation in April.
There was also a 0.2% decline in prices for transportation and communication.
Prices for clothes & footwear (+1.7%), medical care (+0.9%), furniture & household utensils (+0.8%), and culture & recreation (+0.1%) limited the damage.
Month-on-month, core consumer prices slid by 0.3%.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.190 to ¥107.266 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥107.12 against the U.S Dollar.
Of less influence, but worth noting, was a downward revision to Japan’s April Manufacturing PMI from 43.7 to 41.9. In March, the PMI had stood at 44.8. Production fell at the sharpest pace since 2009
For the Aussie Dollar
It was a busy morning. Manufacturing and wholesale inflation figures were in focus this morning.
In April, the AIG Manufacturing Index slid from 53.7 to 35.8. In March, the Index had risen from 44.3 to 53.7.
According to the April report, the manufacturing sector contracted at its worst pace since April 2009.
The monthly fall of 17.9 points was also the largest on record.
The March pickup in demand for manufactured foods and groceries came to an end in April, weighed by an end to the hoarding seen in March.
As a result of COVID-19 and lockdown measures, no new sales, cancellation of orders, supply chain disruption, increased raw material prices all weighed.
In April, all activity indices slumped by levels akin to those last seen during the Global Financial Crisis.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64841 to $0.64917 upon release of the figures.
Wholesale inflationary pressures eased in the 1st quarter, with the annual rate of wholesale inflation softening from 1.4% to 1.3%. Quarter-on-quarter, the Producer Price Index rose by 0.2%, following a 0.3% increase in the 4th quarter.
According to the ABS,
There were rises in other agri (+11.2%), tertiary education (+1.6%), and electricity supply; gas supply; and water supply, sewerage, and draining services (+1.1%).
Dragging in the 1st quarter, however, were declines in petroleum refining and petroleum fuel manufacturing (-14.1%) and accommodation (-5.6%).
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64726 to $0.64743 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.58% to $0.6474.
Elsewhere
The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.49% to $0.6097, with the risk-off sentiment weighing early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with the European markets closed today.
Dire economic data from the U.S saw the EUR return to $1.09 levels on Thursday. With EU member states easing lockdown measures, much will now depend on the COVID-19 numbers. A jump in new cases would send the EUR back to $1.07 levels.
For the day ahead, expect market risk sentiment to be the key driver.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.15% to $1.0939.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized April Manufacturing PMI numbers.
While any downward revision would be Pound negative, the focus will be on the UK’s economic outlook.
Thursday’s government update was Pound positive, with the government planning to ease lockdown measures from next week. Johnson also stated that the UK was past the peak, which will leave the Pound sensitive to any jumps in new cases…
Away from the numbers, expect risk sentiment to be the key driver on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.31% to $1.2555, with concerns over the global economic outlook weighing early on.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats include April’s finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI and the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Forecasts are for a greater contraction in the sector, which would add to the doom and gloom following Thursday’s stats.
Expect dire numbers to drive demand for the safe havens, which includes the Greenback…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.15% to 99.164 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction on the day.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment on the day.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.26% to C$1.3981 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The weak numbers overshadowed the positive sentiment towards COVID-19 treatment drug remdesivir that had fueled Wednesday’s rally in the U.S. New coronavirus cases continued to rise throughout the week. Johnson also stated that the UK was past the peak, which will leave the Pound sensitive to any jumps in new cases… Away from the numbers, expect risk sentiment to be the key driver on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Prediction – Prices Break out and Close at 7.5-Year Highs US Open – Waking From a Stimulus Induced Dream – Oil, Gold and BTC in Focus Economic Data and Central Bank Commentary Is Coming Back into Focus The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the day ahead, expect market risk sentiment to be the key driver. Key stats include finalized April Manufacturing PMI numbers. Key stats include April’s finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI and the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with the European markets closed today. Key stats include April’s finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI and the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Prediction – Prices Break out and Close at 7.5-Year Highs US Open – Waking From a Stimulus Induced Dream – Oil, Gold and BTC in Focus Economic Data and Central Bank Commentary Is Coming Back into Focus The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Economists had forecast a core annual rate of inflation of 0.1%, following 0.4% in March. Manufacturing and wholesale inflation figures were in focus this morning. According to the April report, the manufacturing sector contracted at its worst pace since April 2009. | b8408d14-fce9-42b5-8da7-69a956edbcf5 |
709106.0 | 2020-04-30 00:00:00 UTC | “Never Sell Shell” Adage Goes into Dustbin, IOC Future in Doubt? | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/never-sell-shell-adage-goes-into-dustbin-ioc-future-in-doubt-2020-04-30 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
With a surprise statement to the financial world, the Dutch-British oil giant has changed its dividend policy with a bang, removing part of the attraction to institutional investors. For the first time since 1945 Shell has cut its first-quarter payout by two-thirds amid coronavirus crisis.
Shell cuts dividend for first time since WW2
The FTSE largest dividend payer has decided to cut its dividend due to the collapse of global oil prices due to the coronavirus pandemic. At present financial centers are reeling from the news, as the Shell dividend was a major basis to hold the company’s shares for thousands of retail investors and pension funds. In a reaction Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden, stated that the company would take “prudent steps” to protect its financial resilience “under extremely challenging conditions” caused by Covid-19.
One of the main underlying issues for the dramatic decision by Shell are the dramatic financial figures reported for Q1 2020. In its financial statement the IOC reported that its profits in Q1 tumbled by 46% to $2.9bn (£2.3bn), in comparison to $5.3bn in Q1 2019. Van Beurden reiterated that the dividend cut is based on the need to address the continued deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the significant mid- and long-term uncertainty.
He also said that it was meant to bolster the company’s resilience, underpin the strength of Shell’s balance sheet and support the long-term value creation. The company still will pay out a total dividend of $3.5bn for the quarter to its shareholders.
Shell’s move has come at a difficult time
As the financial world is fully focusing on the impact of Corona, the global lockdown and expected negative economic growth for 2020. At the same time, Shell’s competitors, such as British oil giant BP, are not yet deciding to cut their dividend. Bernard Looney, BP’s CEO, stated this week that the board had decided not to cut its dividend for the first quarter despite plunging to a loss. The BP executive however has indicated that there could be dividend cuts coming if the current situation deteriorates further.
Shell’s decision will have shocked its shareholders, especially the retail investors, but also pension funds, as most of them will have been counting on the historical payouts for their total investment returns. The fact that Shell has decided to go this way is a real sign that the privately owned oil and gas sector is fighting for its survival.
Whatever optimism is still there in the market, the last 24 hours partly supported by better than expected storage figures in the USA, will disappear for sure when investors and analysts start to understand that the situation is very dire. Large IOCs and independents will be able to survive the current onslaught, due to their balance sheets and cash available, but the future of others, especially high-cost producers, will be very dark.
The Shell move is not a one-time issue, it is a sign that investors are entering a new world. Without the attractiveness of high dividend pay-outs, the overall attractiveness is becoming bleak. If the Shell example is going to be followed by others, institutional investors and retail investors will for sure have a look at their total portfolio in oil and gas, and most probably will head to other sectors based on ROIs and other issues.
Lower investment attractiveness is a real threat, as future investment strategies of IOCs and Independents will depend on the views held in the market. If returns are threatened, and a sacrosanct Shell dividend is removed, financing costs for most will increase substantially.
Another still undervalued issue of most IOCs and Independents could now also for once emerge on the desks of analysts. Most privately owned oil and gas companies have no real reserve potential to build a future on. If there is no change in attitude at the HQs of the likes of Shell, BP, ExxonMobil or Statoil, these companies are going to fight an uphill battle they will lose.
With an average of 3-5 years of reserves/production ratios, most are in dire need to find or acquire more reserves to prolong their life. Cutting dividends is dramatic, blood is on the wall in investment land, but if Shell and others are not going to invest in upstream assets right now, as prices are attractive, more blood is going to be spilled.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At present financial centers are reeling from the news, as the Shell dividend was a major basis to hold the company’s shares for thousands of retail investors and pension funds. In a reaction Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden, stated that the company would take “prudent steps” to protect its financial resilience “under extremely challenging conditions” caused by Covid-19. Shell’s move has come at a difficult time As the financial world is fully focusing on the impact of Corona, the global lockdown and expected negative economic growth for 2020. | One of the main underlying issues for the dramatic decision by Shell are the dramatic financial figures reported for Q1 2020. The fact that Shell has decided to go this way is a real sign that the privately owned oil and gas sector is fighting for its survival. Most privately owned oil and gas companies have no real reserve potential to build a future on. | Shell cuts dividend for first time since WW2 The FTSE largest dividend payer has decided to cut its dividend due to the collapse of global oil prices due to the coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, Shell’s competitors, such as British oil giant BP, are not yet deciding to cut their dividend. Cutting dividends is dramatic, blood is on the wall in investment land, but if Shell and others are not going to invest in upstream assets right now, as prices are attractive, more blood is going to be spilled. | Shell’s decision will have shocked its shareholders, especially the retail investors, but also pension funds, as most of them will have been counting on the historical payouts for their total investment returns. If the Shell example is going to be followed by others, institutional investors and retail investors will for sure have a look at their total portfolio in oil and gas, and most probably will head to other sectors based on ROIs and other issues. Lower investment attractiveness is a real threat, as future investment strategies of IOCs and Independents will depend on the views held in the market. | 404a83ec-6da0-45b5-b618-7821dcfcf3d5 |
709107.0 | 2020-04-29 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data, Coronavirus News, and the ECB in Focus on a Busy Day for the Markets | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-coronavirus-news-and-the-ecb-in-focus-on-a-busy-day-for-the-markets-2020-04 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen, the Aussie Dollar, and Kiwi Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
Outside of the numbers, positive updates on treatment drug remdesivir and the promise of support from the FED supported the demand for riskier assets.
Coronavirus numbers were on the rise through the start of the week, though they had a muted impact on risk sentiment. In spite of the uptick, the downtrend from earlier in the month continued, with the uptick unlikely to be enough to question plans to ease lockdown measures.
On Wednesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 75,118 to 3,134,199. On Tuesday, the number of new cases had risen by 75,118. While up from Tuesday, this was down marginally from a 78,442 increase on the previous Wednesday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 8,651 new cases on Wednesday, which was up from 6,020 new cases on Tuesday. France reported just 509 new cases, while Spain reported a 4,771 jump on the day.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 27,752 to 1,063,517 on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the total number of cases had risen by 25,258. On Wednesday, 22nd April, the total new number of cases had risen by 25,985.
For the Japanese Yen
Industrial production and retail sales figures for February were in focus early in the day.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, retail sales slid by 4.60% in March, reversing a 1.7% jump in February, year-on-year. Economists had forecasts a 4.70% decline.
Industrial production slid by 3.7% in March, following a 0.3% decline in February. Economists had forecast a 5.2% decline.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were:
Motor vehicles, production machinery, and inorganic and organic chemicals.
Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were:
Transport equipment and pulp, paper & paper products.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.599 to ¥106.613 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥106.66 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Business confidence took another hit in April, with the ANZ Business Confidence Index falling from -63.5 to -66.6.
According to the latest ANZ Report,
A net 55% of firms expect weaker economic activity in their own business, with the retail sector the weakest at -67%. This was another sharp decline from -26.7% in March.
Employment intentions fell from a net 23% of firms intending to reduce employment to a net 50.8%
Investment intentions slid from a negative 14% to a negative 44.9%.
Profit expectations fell from 33.6 points to a net 70.4% expecting lower profitability.
Export intentions fell -16 points to -42.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.61216 to $0.61185 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.05% at $0.6030.
Out of China
The NBS Composite PMI increased from 53.0 to 53.4 in April. While the Manufacturing PMI slipped from 52.0 to 50.8, the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.3 to 53.2.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65378 to $0.65349 upon release of the figures that preceded the Caixin survey Manufacturing PMI.
In April, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, which was down from 50.1 in March. Economists had forecast a rise to 50.3.
According to the latest Caixin Survey,
Output continued to see a pickup following the easing in lockdown measures, while export sales slumped.
With other major economies in lockdown throughout April, demand weighed heavily on the sector.
Total new orders fell for a 3rd consecutive month, which was attributed to weaker demand from overseas.
Weaker conditions led to a cut back in staff numbers and input purchases.
In spite of the lack of demand, manufacturers reported a 2nd consecutive monthly increase in production.
Optimism across manufacturing companies fell to a 4-month low in April. Concerns over the longevity and severity of the pandemic and its impact on global demand weighed.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65402 to $0.65432 upon release of the figures.
For the Aussie Dollar
Total sector credit jumped by 1.1% in March, following a 0.4% increase in February.
According to figures released by RBA,
Business credit surged by 2.9%, following a 0.9% rise in February.
Personal credit slid by 1.4%, however, following a 0.5% decline in February.
Housing credit rose by 0.3%, rising at the same pace as in the previous month.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65336 to $0.65402 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.6548.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include 1st quarter GDP numbers for France, Spain, and the Eurozone. German and Eurozone unemployment figures will also garner plenty of attention.
We would expect retail sales figures from France and Germany and prelim April inflation figures to have a muted impact, however.
Inflation figures for France, Italy, Spain, and the Eurozone are due out today.
While the stats will have some influence, the ECB’s monetary policy decision is the main event of the day.
Expect the Press Conference to draw plenty of interest. Will Lagarde place the onus firmly on member states to deliver further support or will the ECB step in? Perhaps a bit of both…
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.0870.
For the Pound
It’s yet another a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of market risk appetite and COVID-19 news on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.2465, with a pickup in the number of deaths and new cases weighing early on.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats include March inflation and personal spending figures and the weekly jobless claims figures.
We would expect the personal spending and initial jobless claims to have the greatest influence on the day.
The markets will be looking for the weekly claims to slide back from levels seen in recent weeks…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 99.572 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with February GDP numbers and March’s RMPI in focus.
The stats are dated, however, which should limit any impact on the Loonie later today. Outside of the number, expect crude oil prices to continue to provide support.
The Loonie was up by 0.06% to C$1.3873 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, retail sales slid by 4.60% in March, reversing a 1.7% jump in February, year-on-year. According to the latest ANZ Report, A net 55% of firms expect weaker economic activity in their own business, with the retail sector the weakest at -67%. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Dow Extends Losing Run After Powell’s Dismal Outlook GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Gives Up Early Gains AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Dance Around Big Figure The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Japanese Yen Industrial production and retail sales figures for February were in focus early in the day. We would expect retail sales figures from France and Germany and prelim April inflation figures to have a muted impact, however. Key stats include March inflation and personal spending figures and the weekly jobless claims figures. | For the Japanese Yen Industrial production and retail sales figures for February were in focus early in the day. We would expect retail sales figures from France and Germany and prelim April inflation figures to have a muted impact, however. For the Loonie It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with February GDP numbers and March’s RMPI in focus. | For the Aussie Dollar Total sector credit jumped by 1.1% in March, following a 0.4% increase in February. At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.2465, with a pickup in the number of deaths and new cases weighing early on. For the Loonie It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with February GDP numbers and March’s RMPI in focus. | 1b1928b1-0e17-46e3-a085-bad3df538ea2 |
709108.0 | 2020-04-29 00:00:00 UTC | Mid-Week Themes – The FED, the ECB, and COVID-19 – The Key Drivers This Week | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mid-week-themes-the-fed-the-ecb-and-covid-19-the-key-drivers-this-week-2020-04-29 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
By looking at the economic calendars, we observe scheduled central bank events.
What should traders look out for during this week in regards to the central banks?
Following Monday’s BoJ, the FED and ECB are in action.
The FED’s unlikely to drop rates to 0% just yet, which is Trump’s desire. Expect Trump to give his 10 cents worth following the FOMC press conference…
The FED will be promising support in a bid to avoid shocking the markets. They will be talking about doom and gloom in order to prepare the markets ahead of 1st quarter GDP numbers on Thursday. 2nd quarter GDP numbers will garner more attention, however, following the April lockdown.
We then have the ECB on Thursday. We have seen the EU project come under fire, so it will be an interesting one.
It will come down to the FED, however, when it comes down to the global financial markets.
Central banks have been easing their policies since the start of the pandemic.
Meanwhile, how is oil doing after the last week’s negative prices?
We have seen oil prices continue to struggle, with WTI seeing deep red once more.
Output has been in decline providing support but expect pressure on crude oil prices to remain. Concerns over the economy and the economic outlook remain negatives for crude oil near-term.
Will we see sub-$10, probably not, so expect more chatter on supply cuts. Much will depend on U.S output. OPEC will want to see the U.S chip in before delivering a more material cut in output.
It appears that in the current environment most prior correlations between asset prices are no longer valid.
How about macroeconomic data? Are statistics releases still influencing exchange rates?
We need to get passed March and April figures to see the bottom of the Abyss in the respective economies.
1st quarter GDP numbers out of the U.S and private sector PMI numbers out of China will garner some attention.
The weekly jobless claims figures will also need to slide back from the recent levels seen over the last couple of weeks.
Overall, however, the stats are not having a material impact on the markets. Coronavirus updates, including the number of new cases and plans to ease lockdown measures, remain the key drivers.
We will need to start seeing May and June economic data for influence on the markets to resume.
Since we mention New Zealand, the country recently announced that it is free from the coronavirus.
How did that impact the country’s currency?
Great news from NZ as we see some more positive news on the coronavirus front.
New Zealand being free of new cases is certainly positive. When we look at economic data out of NZ, it hasn’t been as bad as the markets had anticipated.
Even March trade data this morning impressed, with exports rising by a record amount.
Is the Kiwi Dollar heading for a slide and is the RBNZ going to deliver negative rates?
They’ve talked about it. With a reopening in the NZ economy, a pickup in activity is expected. Other economies reopening, including China, should also provide further support.
One downside is obviously tourism, which will be one negative that the RBNZ will need to consider. And obviously consumption.
We’ve seen the Kiwi Dollar trail the Aussie Dollar this week. That’s largely down to the markets still expecting the RBNZ to deliver negative rates.
Despite good fundamental news, the exchange rate is still set by the central bank.
Could you comment more on the situation in the EU and the pressure from the ECB on EU member states?
In terms of the ECB, Lagarde may be miffed that EU member states were not able to deliver the EUR1tn stimulus package.
That’s likely to come up in Thursday’s press conference. She will want to put pressure on the likes of the Netherlands, Germany, and other northern EU member states.
Even within the ECB, Lagarde’s hands are tied with EU member state representation.
Will the ECB deliver more support, they will have to. There is a sizeable contraction expected, particularly in the 2nd quarter.
Lagarde may want to drag her feet a little, however, to see how far EU member states are willing to go…
We can expect further progress on this in the coming few weeks.
We then look at the EU project itself. If the EU fails to deliver, the likes of Italy and Spain will question the lack of support at a time of dire straits…
Last but not least. Is there anything else geopolitical happening?
We’ve got the EU project and how the ECB and EU member states step up to support more adversely affected member states. That is one to monitor.
There’s also Brexit. Boris Johnson was looking for a framework to be in place by June. That’s highly unlikely with the British PM only just returning to office. So, will there be an extension to the transition period?
The big one to look out for is the rising tension between the U.S and Iran. Trump will be looking at some sort of raid or an attack on Iran. That would be a great distraction as Joe Biden eats into his lead…
We have also heard the news of the U.S administration going to the UN Security Council stating that they had never actually left the Iran nuclear agreement.
That’s quite a statement considering the fanfare behind the U.S withdrawal.
It does suggest that the U.S is looking to sever the supply of arms from the likes of China and Russia. This could mean that the U.S is preparing for some sort of move against Iran…
That would also be quite a boost for oil prices…
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Expect Trump to give his 10 cents worth following the FOMC press conference… The FED will be promising support in a bid to avoid shocking the markets. That would be a great distraction as Joe Biden eats into his lead… We have also heard the news of the U.S administration going to the UN Security Council stating that they had never actually left the Iran nuclear agreement. This could mean that the U.S is preparing for some sort of move against Iran… That would also be quite a boost for oil prices… This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: US Budget Outlays at Record High, but the Fed Says More is Needed GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Support At 1.2250 Holds Well GBP/USD Holds On To Range Support By a Thread The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | 2nd quarter GDP numbers will garner more attention, however, following the April lockdown. Output has been in decline providing support but expect pressure on crude oil prices to remain. We’ve got the EU project and how the ECB and EU member states step up to support more adversely affected member states. | Could you comment more on the situation in the EU and the pressure from the ECB on EU member states? We’ve got the EU project and how the ECB and EU member states step up to support more adversely affected member states. This could mean that the U.S is preparing for some sort of move against Iran… That would also be quite a boost for oil prices… This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: US Budget Outlays at Record High, but the Fed Says More is Needed GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Support At 1.2250 Holds Well GBP/USD Holds On To Range Support By a Thread The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Meanwhile, how is oil doing after the last week’s negative prices? Will the ECB deliver more support, they will have to. We’ve got the EU project and how the ECB and EU member states step up to support more adversely affected member states. | 73d174a1-b0d4-46e3-9d73-1dc024fffe8a |
709109.0 | 2020-04-27 00:00:00 UTC | COVID-19 News, Corporate Earnings, and Crude Oil to Test the Markets | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/covid-19-news-corporate-earnings-and-crude-oil-to-test-the-markets-2020-04-28 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action, with employment figures focus following Monday’s monetary policy move.
Outside of the numbers, the start of the week coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures also influenced.
On Monday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 66,953 to 3,059,081. On Sunday, the number of new cases had risen by 71,251.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 8,938 new cases on Monday, which was up from 7,063 new cases on Sunday. A rise in new cases from France led to the EU’s day on day increase, while the overall downward trend continued.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 21,235 to 1,008,043 on Monday. On Sunday, the total number of cases had risen by 26,157. On Monday, 20th April, the new number of cases had risen by 28,494.
The continued downward trend from last week was evident, supporting government decisions to ease lockdown measures.
Out of Japan
The Job / Application ratio decreased from 1.45 to 1.39, which was worse than a forecasted decline to 1.40.
In spite of the decline, the Yen showed little response in the wake of the BoJ’s moves to support the economy on Monday.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.280 to ¥107.269 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥107.26 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.11% to $0.6458, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.28% to $0.6030. Following Monday’s rally, a slide in crude oil prices from Monday tested support for the pair early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 news on the day and any chatter from Brussels on a more meaningful aid package.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.0831.
For the Pound
It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment and the latest COVID-19 updates.
While the Pound is likely to find support in the event of a pickup in risk appetite, the chances of a more prolonged lockdown would be Pound negative.
Expect updates from the British government to influence on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.2431.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats include April consumer confidence figures and March trade data.
We would expect the Dollar to largely brush aside the numbers, however, with the markets anticipating a slide in consumer confidence. Lockdown measures and a surge in the unemployment rate are both already priced in.
Outside of the numbers, expect market risk sentiment to continue to be the key driver. Further plans to ease lockdown measures, supported by the downward trend in new COVID-19 cases, remain Dollar negative.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 100.049 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite early on.
The Loonie was up by 0.06% to C$1.4025 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. A continued slide in crude oil prices had limited impact early on.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The continued downward trend from last week was evident, supporting government decisions to ease lockdown measures. The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 news on the day and any chatter from Brussels on a more meaningful aid package. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Italy: Debt Sustainability Supported by ECB as Covid-19 Crisis Brings Rise in Debt and Funding Needs Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Saudis to Deepen Production Cuts in June U.S. Stocks Set To Open Higher On Optimism About Potential Treatments For COVID-19 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, the start of the week coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures also influenced. Further plans to ease lockdown measures, supported by the downward trend in new COVID-19 cases, remain Dollar negative. For the Loonie It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. | A rise in new cases from France led to the EU’s day on day increase, while the overall downward trend continued. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Loonie It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. | Outside of the numbers, the start of the week coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures also influenced. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥107.26 against the U.S Dollar. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. | 67b4e62c-399b-4d2d-bdb5-2bd24a718323 |
709110.0 | 2020-04-26 00:00:00 UTC | Markets Brush Aside China Data as Plans to Ease Lockdown Measures Sink the Dollar | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/markets-brush-aside-china-data-as-plans-to-ease-lockdown-measures-sink-the-dollar-2020-04 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. Economic data was China’s industrial profit figures for March.
Outside of the numbers, the weekend coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures remained key.
On Sunday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 71,251 to 2,992,128. A downward trend was seen through the weekend, following Friday’s 112,961 jump.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 7,063 new cases on Sunday, which was down from 9,526 new cases on Sunday. France reported just 612 new cases on Sunday, with Germany seeing the number of new cases fall for 3 consecutive days.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 26,157 to 960,651 on Sunday. On Saturday, the total number of cases had risen by 35,655, which was down from a 45,566 spike on Friday.
The continued downward trend from last week was evident, supporting government plans to ease lockdown measures.
Concerns over a lack of a treatment drug will likely linger, however. While an easing in lockdown measures is positive, leaving borders closed will also remain market negative near-term.
Out of China
Industrial profits slid by 34.9% in March, year-on-year, following a 5.4% increase in February. Year-to-date, profits were down by 36.7%, which was marginally better than a 38.3% slide to February.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64284 to $0.64385 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 1.00% to $0.6435.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥107.58 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.48% to $0.6046. The Kiwi Dollar trailed the Aussie as talk of negative rates continued to pin the Kiwi back.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to french jobseeker totals that are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR.
March and April’s private sector PMI figures set the tone for the turn of the quarter, with unemployment expected to surge.
The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of COVID-19 news on the day and any chatter from Brussels on a more meaningful aid package.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.0826.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction at the start of the week.
A lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of Boris Johnson, who returns to the desk today, and the economic outlook.
Britain saw the total number of deaths rise beyond 20,000 on the weekend, with the total number of cases rising to 152,840. On Sunday, however, the total number of COVID-19 related deaths was the lowest since March.
Also positive, was an affirmation that lockdown measures were paying off, with new cases reportedly being fairly stable.
From the UK government, stand-in Raab stated that it was irresponsible to reveal the government’s lockdown exit plan. An update is expected on 7th May, however, which is the date of the government’s next lockdown review meeting. He also stated that a COVID-19 vaccine would be unlikely this year.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.21% to $1.2393.
Across the Pond
It’s also a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Greenback with direction.
A lack of stats leaves the Dollar in the hands of market risk sentiment and chatter from Capitol Hill.
A downward trend in COVID-19 cases over the weekend and continued plans to ease lockdown measures should ease demand for the Dollar.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.18% to 100.197 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and crude oil prices.
Barring a marked cut in global output, last week’s inventories and the latest PMI numbers suggest more doom and gloom.
The Loonie was up by 0.12% to C$1.4086 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. While the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar found strong support early on, the Loonie trailed with sliding oil prices pinning the Loonie back.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | March and April’s private sector PMI figures set the tone for the turn of the quarter, with unemployment expected to surge. Barring a marked cut in global output, last week’s inventories and the latest PMI numbers suggest more doom and gloom. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Positioning the Secret Sauce for Further Gains in Risk USD/JPY Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Fed Chair Powell Speech Drives Risk Sentiment This Week NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Could Accelerate to Upside Over .6176 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, the weekend coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures remained key. The continued downward trend from last week was evident, supporting government plans to ease lockdown measures. While the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar found strong support early on, the Loonie trailed with sliding oil prices pinning the Loonie back. | Outside of the numbers, the weekend coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures remained key. A downward trend in COVID-19 cases over the weekend and continued plans to ease lockdown measures should ease demand for the Dollar. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. | Economic data was China’s industrial profit figures for March. Outside of the numbers, the weekend coronavirus numbers and chatter from governments on easing lockdown measures remained key. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. | 209923e1-5f90-4f81-831b-fd7c7966a7f1 |
709111.0 | 2020-04-24 00:00:00 UTC | EXPLAINER-Oil ETPs: the perils of trading crude like a stock | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/explainer-oil-etps%3A-the-perils-of-trading-crude-like-a-stock-2020-04-24 | nan | nan | By April Joyner
NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - A historic plunge in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the risks of oil-focused exchange-traded products (ETPs).
Market participants, especially individual investors, have piled into oil ETPs in recent weeks to bet that U.S. crude prices CLc1 will rebound from its nearly 60% tumble since March 6.
But many of these products - including the United States Oil Fund LP USO.P, the largest U.S. oil ETP - have the potential for steep losses as oil markets are roiled.
HOW DO OIL ETPS WORK?
Oil ETPs hold crude futures but can be bought and sold like stocks. The products are a popular way for individual investors to bet on moves in crude prices, as trading commodity futures can be difficult for retail market participants.
Unlike stocks, oil futures contracts expire every month, so the funds must roll their holdings into the following month's contract to avoid physical delivery of the oil.
With oil markets currently in contango, a condition in which later-dated futures trade at higher prices than nearer-dated ones, the ETPs are forced to buy next month's contracts at a steep premium, exposing their shareholders to additional losses on top of falling oil prices.
WHAT HAPPENED TO USO?
USO has seen heavy inflows since early March from investors seeking to position for a possible rebound in oil, tripling its assets under management year-to-date to $3.61 billion even as its price has fallen by around 80%.
The fund avoided potentially catastrophic losses when May oil futures traded below $0 per barrel for the first time ever on Monday because it had already rolled its holdings into later-dated contracts. Still, it has fallen nearly 40% in the past week to $2.59.
USO has tried to further mitigate potential losses by spreading its holdings throughout contracts expiring in July, August, and September, in addition to front-month contracts expiring in June.
While the portfolio changes have eased some worries over the fund's exposure to the front-month contract CLc1, which is most heavily traded, they also limit USO's upside should those futures rally significantly, as they did on Thursday.
Still, some market watchers worry that persistent scarcity of oil storage could send June or later-dated futures to or below zero.
HOW BIG IS THE OIL ETP MARKET?
U.S. oil ETPs manage roughly $5 billion in assets, according to Sumit Roy, analyst at ETF.com.
Among other such products, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil UCO.P fund had $780.2 million, while the Invesco DB Oil Fund DBO.P had $356.9 million.
HOW MUCH SWAY DO THEY HAVE ON OIL PRICES?
USO was estimated to have controlled roughly 25% to 30% of June U.S. crude futures CLM0 before recent changes to its portfolio. According to Roy at ETF.com, the ETP now holds about 11% of those contracts.
While some analysts believe the fund's monthly roll of its futures contracts does not have much effect on the oil markets, some traders have attempted to time their buying and selling to coincide with the fund's monthly moves.
COULD ANOTHER OIL PLUNGE WIPE OUT THESE ETPS?
Certain ETPs, such as UCO, are levered, meaning that they use derivatives to amplify the moves in the futures they track, typically by a factor of two or three. A sharp one-day decline in futures prices could force these products to liquidate, since they cannot trade below zero.
Several levered ETPs, such as the VelocityShares 3x Long Crude Oil ETNs, which traded under the ticker UWT, have already shuttered since mid-March.
The oil plunge has claimed at least one unlevered ETP as well. Barclays PLC BARC.L announced on Monday that it would liquidate its iPath Series B S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index ETNs OIL.P on April 30.
(Reporting by April Joyner; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Marguerita Choy)
((April.Joyner@thomsonreuters.com; +1 646 223 7480; Reuters Messaging: april.joyner.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net; Twitter: @aprjoy))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Among other such products, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil UCO.P fund had $780.2 million, while the Invesco DB Oil Fund DBO.P had $356.9 million. USO has seen heavy inflows since early March from investors seeking to position for a possible rebound in oil, tripling its assets under management year-to-date to $3.61 billion even as its price has fallen by around 80%. While the portfolio changes have eased some worries over the fund's exposure to the front-month contract CLc1, which is most heavily traded, they also limit USO's upside should those futures rally significantly, as they did on Thursday. | Among other such products, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil UCO.P fund had $780.2 million, while the Invesco DB Oil Fund DBO.P had $356.9 million. Market participants, especially individual investors, have piled into oil ETPs in recent weeks to bet that U.S. crude prices CLc1 will rebound from its nearly 60% tumble since March 6. Unlike stocks, oil futures contracts expire every month, so the funds must roll their holdings into the following month's contract to avoid physical delivery of the oil. | Among other such products, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil UCO.P fund had $780.2 million, while the Invesco DB Oil Fund DBO.P had $356.9 million. But many of these products - including the United States Oil Fund LP USO.P, the largest U.S. oil ETP - have the potential for steep losses as oil markets are roiled. Unlike stocks, oil futures contracts expire every month, so the funds must roll their holdings into the following month's contract to avoid physical delivery of the oil. | Among other such products, the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil UCO.P fund had $780.2 million, while the Invesco DB Oil Fund DBO.P had $356.9 million. By April Joyner NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - A historic plunge in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the risks of oil-focused exchange-traded products (ETPs). Unlike stocks, oil futures contracts expire every month, so the funds must roll their holdings into the following month's contract to avoid physical delivery of the oil. | 0ee83b5f-0893-434c-8a9e-eba8adfd1fbb |
709112.0 | 2020-04-23 00:00:00 UTC | As Governments Look to Ease Measures, the EU Project and EUR Remain Under Fire | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/as-governments-look-to-ease-measures-the-eu-project-and-eur-remain-under-fire-2020-04-24 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. Economic data was limited to March inflation figures out of Japan.
The lack of stats left the Asian markets to take their cues from the U.S session overnight, Thursday’s COVID-19 numbers, and crude oil prices this morning.
On Thursday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 80,696 to 2,715,614. This was up marginally from a 78,442 increase on Wednesday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 8,068 new cases on Thursday, which was down from 11,603 new cases on Wednesday. From Germany and Spain, it was a 3rd consecutively daily increase. In spite of this, the daily increases remained well below the numbers seen last week.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 30,926 to 879,430. On Wednesday, the total number of cases had risen by 29,760. On Thursday of last week, the total number of new cases in the U.S had risen by 31,292.
The continued downward trend from last week and plans to ease lockdown measures remained market positive.
Negative updates on drug trials to treat coronavirus patients was a test early on, however.
For the Japanese Yen
The annual rate of core inflation softened from 0.6% to 0.4% in March, according to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. Economists had forecast an annual rate of core inflation of 0.4%.
Month-on-month, consumer prices stalled in March after having fallen by 0.1% in February.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.649 to ¥107.64 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥107.66 against the U.S Dollar,
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.20% to $0.6357, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.25% to $0.5993.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quieter day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index numbers for April.
Following particularly dire April PMI numbers yesterday, expect today’s numbers to have a limited impact on the EUR.
As EU member states roll out plans to ease lockdown measures, the focus will now be on EU member states delivering a meaningful aid package. The EUR hit reverse on Thursday as EU member states failed to agree on a sizeable stimulus package to counter the economic effects of COVID-19.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% to $1.0767.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. March retail sales figures are due out that could test the Pound early in the day.
While more stringent containment measures were introduced in April, the March numbers are forecasted to be quite dire.
Following the April PMI numbers on Thursday, however, the markets may be able to stomach another shocking set of numbers.
Over the course of the day, expect the Pound to remain sensitive to COVID-19 numbers, with risk sentiment the key driver.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.03% to $1.2348.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include March durable goods orders and finalized consumer sentiment numbers for April.
A marked slide in durable goods orders in March is forecasted, which will likely have a limited impact on the Dollar.
Finalized consumer sentiment numbers will likely be revised downwards, which should also be brushed aside.
With economic data likely to have limited impact, the focus will remain on Capitol Hill…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.15% to 100.570 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on theeconomic calendar with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and crude oil prices. While crude oil prices saw early gains this morning, the cause was rising tensions in the Middle East, which was Loonie negative.
The Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.4084 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The EUR hit reverse on Thursday as EU member states failed to agree on a sizeable stimulus package to counter the economic effects of COVID-19. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include March durable goods orders and finalized consumer sentiment numbers for April. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Dance at Resistance Gold Price Prediction – Gold Surges and Poised to Break Out as US Yield Decline EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 08/05/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The continued downward trend from last week and plans to ease lockdown measures remained market positive. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include March durable goods orders and finalized consumer sentiment numbers for April. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Dance at Resistance Gold Price Prediction – Gold Surges and Poised to Break Out as US Yield Decline EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 08/05/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥107.66 against the U.S Dollar, Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.20% to $0.6357, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.25% to $0.5993. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include March durable goods orders and finalized consumer sentiment numbers for April. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Dance at Resistance Gold Price Prediction – Gold Surges and Poised to Break Out as US Yield Decline EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 08/05/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | March retail sales figures are due out that could test the Pound early in the day. Over the course of the day, expect the Pound to remain sensitive to COVID-19 numbers, with risk sentiment the key driver. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include March durable goods orders and finalized consumer sentiment numbers for April. | c5d990bf-18a4-4a83-9516-3553a4f1fb98 |
709113.0 | 2020-04-22 00:00:00 UTC | April PMIs, Brexit Talks, an EU Summit, and COVID-19 to Keep the Markets Busy | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/april-pmis-brexit-talks-an-eu-summit-and-covid-19-to-keep-the-markets-busy-2020-04-23 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. April prelim private sector PMI numbers for Japan were in focus early on.
Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices and updated coronavirus numbers continued to influence.
On Wednesday, the number of new coronavirus cases rose by 78,442 to 2,634,918. This was up marginally from a 75,450 increase on Tuesday.
France, Germany, Italy, and Spain reported 11,603 new cases on Wednesday, which was up from 10,752 new cases on Tuesday. The numbers continued to support the downward trend seen from last week, however.
From the U.S, the total number of cases rose by 29,760 to 848,504. On Tuesday, the total number of cases had risen by 25,985.
The Key take away from the numbers was the marginal pickup across the 4 EU member states and the U.S supporting the plans to ease lockdown measures. Compared with last week, the downward trend continued.
For the Japanese Yen
According to prelim figures, Japan’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 44.2 to 43.7 in April, with the services PMI tumbling from 33.8 to 22.9.
Key points from the prelim Markit Survey’s included:
In the manufacturing sector, business conditions deteriorated at the sharpest pace since Aril 2009.
Output fell at the sharpest pace in 9-years, with new work collapsing.
In the services sector, April saw the largest contraction since records began back in 2007.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.812 to ¥107.777 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥107.79 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.33% to $0.6302, with the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.37% to $0.5929.
Private sector PMIs out of Australia, which tend to have a limited impact, weighed early on. The services PMI tumbled from 38.5 to 19.6, while the Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 to 45.6.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on theeconomic calendar Economic data includes prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone. German consumer confidence figures for May will also be in focus.
Expect the Eurozone’s composite to garner plenty of attention. With the EU in lockdown mode in April, however, the PMIs are likely to be weaker than those seen in March…
Outside of the numbers, COVID-19 numbers, crude oil prices and any chatter from Brussels will also be in focus. The EU Summit will garner plenty of interest as the markets look for EU ministers to deliver more aid.
As Germany eases lockdown measures, the markets will now need to wait for a few weeks to see whether the number of new coronavirus cases spikes or continues on the downward trend.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.08% to $1.0814.
For the Pound
It’s also a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim April private sector PMIs and CBI Industrial Trend Orders for April are due out later today.
While the markets are expecting some quite dire numbers, it’s more about how bad. Sub-20 PMIs would add further pressure on the Pound, with the Eurozone’s private sector expected to see sub-40.
Industrial trend orders will likely have less of an impact on the day.
Outside of the numbers, expect the UK’s latest coronavirus numbers and market risk sentiment to also influence. There are also updates from the resumption of Brexit talks to consider later in the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.10% to $1.2322.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Prelim April private sector PMIs, the weekly jobless claims and new home sales figures for March are due out.
Expect the initial jobless claims and April Services PMI to garner the greatest interest.
As ever, outside of the numbers, news updates on COVID-19 and chatter from Capitol Hill will also be in focus.
The markets will also need to keep one eye on crude oil prices. A further contraction in private sector PMIs could add further pressure on crude.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 100.431 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment. Expect the PMI numbers and COVID-19 updates to be the key drivers on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.16% to C$1.4183 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key points from the prelim Markit Survey’s included: In the manufacturing sector, business conditions deteriorated at the sharpest pace since Aril 2009. As Germany eases lockdown measures, the markets will now need to wait for a few weeks to see whether the number of new coronavirus cases spikes or continues on the downward trend. Across the Pond It’s a busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Prelim April private sector PMIs, the weekly jobless claims and new home sales figures for March are due out. | Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices and updated coronavirus numbers continued to influence. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a particularly busy day ahead on theeconomic calendar Economic data includes prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone. Across the Pond It’s a busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Prelim April private sector PMIs, the weekly jobless claims and new home sales figures for March are due out. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a particularly busy day ahead on theeconomic calendar Economic data includes prelim April private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone. With the EU in lockdown mode in April, however, the PMIs are likely to be weaker than those seen in March… Outside of the numbers, COVID-19 numbers, crude oil prices and any chatter from Brussels will also be in focus. Across the Pond It’s a busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Prelim April private sector PMIs, the weekly jobless claims and new home sales figures for March are due out. | Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices and updated coronavirus numbers continued to influence. As Germany eases lockdown measures, the markets will now need to wait for a few weeks to see whether the number of new coronavirus cases spikes or continues on the downward trend. Expect the PMI numbers and COVID-19 updates to be the key drivers on the day. | 02985c22-b07f-4fb6-a44e-439f43fc8273 |
709114.0 | 2020-04-21 00:00:00 UTC | Commodity Currencies Find Early Support, with Inflation Figures Putting the GBP and Loonie in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/commodity-currencies-find-early-support-with-inflation-figures-putting-the-gbp-and-loonie | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a particularly quiet start to the day on theeconomic calendarthis morning, with no material stats to provide direction.
The lack of stats left the Asian markets to take their cues from the U.S session overnight, Tuesday’s COVID-19 numbers, and crude oil prices this morning.
On Tuesday, the number of new coronavirus cases increased by 75,450 to 2,556,476. On Monday, the total number of new cases had risen by 73,685 to 2,481,026. With the number of new cases on the rise once more, the devil was in the details.
Across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, the total number of new cases rose by 10,752, which was up from 7,604 on Monday. A downward trend was reported from the U.S, however. New cases increased by 25,985 on Tuesday, following 28,494 new cases on Monday.
The Key take away from the numbers was the marginal pickup across the 4 EU member states. Compared with last week, the downward trend continued, supporting the plans to ease lockdown measures.
With the COVID-19 numbers largely positive, a pickup in crude oil prices provided early support to the commodity currencies.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.56% to $0.6315, with the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.5974. The Japanese Yen was up by 0.04% to ¥107.76 against the U.S Dollar,
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to flash Eurozone consumer confidence figures for April.
The markets are prepped for another slide in consumer confidence, with the EU wide lockdown driving unemployment. It would be a surprise for consumers to be able to look past the current economic environment…
Outside of the numbers, market reaction to the latest COVID-19 numbers and plans to ease lockdown measures will remain in focus.
For now, COVID-19 stricken member states and beyond are currently left with the €590bn rescue package. It’s not enough… This week, we are expecting more chatter and attempts to crank up the quantum. With Germany starting to ease lockdown measures, however, chances of something significantly remain slim at best.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.0854.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. March inflation figures are due out that will have limited to no impact on the Pound.
Deflationary pressures have accelerated, so the markets are not expecting any pickup in inflationary pressures. Sliding oil prices are certainly going to pressure the numbers in April, which will also limit the effect of today’s numbers.
Of greater significance on the Pound will be chatter from Parliament and the latest COVID-19 numbers. With EU member states starting to ease lockdown measures, the markets will be looking towards the UK government and updates on containment measures.
Looking at the COVID-19 numbers, the UK lockdown looks set for an extension beyond the end of April, which remains Sterling negative.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.2291.
Across the Pond
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the U.S to provide direction.
The lack of stats leaves the Dollar firmly in the hands of market risk sentiment and chatter from Capitol Hill.
While Trump is unlikely to be too market-friendly, the Dollar remains the favored safe haven…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 100.226 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a busy day on the economic calendar, with March’s new house price and inflation figures due out later today.
Don’t expect any influence from the numbers, however… The markets are expecting the real estate market to suffer at the hands of COVID-19. Deflationary pressures have also surged as a result of the slump in crude oil prices.
Expect updates on COVID-19 and any plans to ease lockdown measures to influence… It will ultimately come down to the direction of crude oil prices, however. The weekly inventory numbers will provide direction later today.
The Loonie was up by 0.14% to C$1.4191 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The lack of stats left the Asian markets to take their cues from the U.S session overnight, Tuesday’s COVID-19 numbers, and crude oil prices this morning. The lack of stats leaves the Dollar firmly in the hands of market risk sentiment and chatter from Capitol Hill. For the Loonie It’s a busy day on the economic calendar, with March’s new house price and inflation figures due out later today. | Compared with last week, the downward trend continued, supporting the plans to ease lockdown measures. It would be a surprise for consumers to be able to look past the current economic environment… Outside of the numbers, market reaction to the latest COVID-19 numbers and plans to ease lockdown measures will remain in focus. With EU member states starting to ease lockdown measures, the markets will be looking towards the UK government and updates on containment measures. | The lack of stats left the Asian markets to take their cues from the U.S session overnight, Tuesday’s COVID-19 numbers, and crude oil prices this morning. It would be a surprise for consumers to be able to look past the current economic environment… Outside of the numbers, market reaction to the latest COVID-19 numbers and plans to ease lockdown measures will remain in focus. Sliding oil prices are certainly going to pressure the numbers in April, which will also limit the effect of today’s numbers. | The lack of stats left the Asian markets to take their cues from the U.S session overnight, Tuesday’s COVID-19 numbers, and crude oil prices this morning. Compared with last week, the downward trend continued, supporting the plans to ease lockdown measures. Sliding oil prices are certainly going to pressure the numbers in April, which will also limit the effect of today’s numbers. | d4a5f885-5e0b-4ef3-9834-8cb83d789a10 |
709115.0 | 2020-04-20 00:00:00 UTC | The Economic Calendar Puts the EUR and Pound in Focus. Risk Aversion Weighs Early, However | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-economic-calendar-puts-the-eur-and-pound-in-focus.-risk-aversion-weighs-early-however | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the day on theeconomic calendarthis morning, with no material stats to provide direction. While there were no stats to consider, the Aussie Dollar was in action early on, with the RBA Policy Meeting Minutes in focus.
Updates from the EU and the U.S on COVID-19 numbers and plans to ease lockdown measures were mixed, limiting support for riskier assets.
At the start of the week, the number of new coronavirus cases increased by 73,685 to 2,481,026. This was a slowdown from Sunday when the total number of new cases had risen by 82,610.
Across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, the total number of new cases rose by 7,604, which was down from 13,496 on Sunday. A downward trend was not reported from the U.S, however. New cases increased by 28,494 on Monday, following 27,475 new cases on Sunday.
The Key take away from the numbers was the decline across the 4 EU member states supporting the easing in lockdown measures.
While the COVID-19 numbers from the EU were positive, numbers from the U.S were less so. The Monday historic slump in crude oil prices added further pressure on riskier assets early on.
For the Aussie Dollar
The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes from 4th April’s meeting provided direction early on. Salient points from the April minutes included:
Members noted that the coordinated monetary and fiscal response would soften the expected economic contraction.
Together with measures taken by ADIs and other businesses, this should also support the economy’s recovery once the health crisis has passed.
The Bank would continue to do what was necessary to achieve the 3-year yield target. The target remains in place until progress is made towards its goals for full employment and inflation.
Members noted that, if conditions continue to improve, it was likely that smaller and less frequent purchases of government bonds would be needed.
The Board confirmed that it would not increase the cash rate before removing the yield target.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.63267 to $0.63185 upon release of the minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.66% to $0.6294.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥107.55 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.80% to $0.5989.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
Its a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. April’s ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone will be in focus this afternoon.
While there will be some degree of interest in the numbers, the current economic climate is unlikely to support any pickup in sentiment towards the economy. The EU remains in a broader lockdown, with economic data and IMF forecasts continuing to paint a grim picture.
Outside of the numbers, expect any chatter from member states on easing lockdown plans and fiscal policy to also influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.26% to $1.0834.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. UK employment numbers are due out later this morning.
While the markets have shown little interest in February numbers, any rise in the unemployment rate in February would be an early red flag.
Claimant count numbers for March may also fail to reflect the effects of lockdown measures and COVID-19, which would limit any upside for the Pound.
Outside of the numbers, Members of Parliament return in social distancing fashion, with COVID-19 numbers also in focus.
As things stand, the continued rise in new cases suggests that the UK may need to extend the lockdown, which is Pound negative.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.27% to $1.2409.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Economic data is limited to new home sales figures for March.
In the U.S, purchase mortgage applications had been on the rise until the latter part of the month, suggesting a further rise in new home sales.
A slide in new purchase applications in late March and through April, however, points to a marked decline in new sales. The surge in the unemployment rate and the lockdown has hit the real estate market in April. As a result, any positive numbers will likely have a muted impact on the Dollar.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.26% to 100.215 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with February’s retail sales figures due out later today.
Positive numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Loonie, however, with April numbers likely to reflect a marked decline.
Market risk sentiment and crude oil prices will continue to provide direction on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.04% to C$1.4154 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Salient points from the April minutes included: Members noted that the coordinated monetary and fiscal response would soften the expected economic contraction. The EU remains in a broader lockdown, with economic data and IMF forecasts continuing to paint a grim picture. Across the Pond It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Economic data is limited to new home sales figures for March. | For the Aussie Dollar The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes from 4th April’s meeting provided direction early on. Outside of the numbers, expect any chatter from member states on easing lockdown plans and fiscal policy to also influence. Across the Pond It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Economic data is limited to new home sales figures for March. | The Key take away from the numbers was the decline across the 4 EU member states supporting the easing in lockdown measures. While the COVID-19 numbers from the EU were positive, numbers from the U.S were less so. Positive numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Loonie, however, with April numbers likely to reflect a marked decline. | The Key take away from the numbers was the decline across the 4 EU member states supporting the easing in lockdown measures. While the COVID-19 numbers from the EU were positive, numbers from the U.S were less so. Across the Pond It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Economic data is limited to new home sales figures for March. | d078de2a-d1e1-4305-8a69-49516a845a9c |
709116.0 | 2020-04-16 00:00:00 UTC | China Economic Data Delivers More Bad News, While COVID-19 Updates Provides Early Support | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-economic-data-delivers-more-bad-news-while-covid-19-updates-provides-early-support | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy start to the day on theeconomic calendar with China numbers in the spotlight.
Outside of the numbers, COVID-19 related news and updates from the U.S on lockdown measures continued to influence.
News of a new drug, developed to combat COVID-19, showing signs of being able to combat the virus, delivered strong support early in the session.
On Thursday, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 26,027 to 656,614. On Wednesday, there had been a rise of 18,526 to 630,587.
In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 31,292 to 675,640, taking the total number of cases to 2,178,149. On Wednesday, the U.S had reported 30,462 new cases.
The Key take away from the numbers was a spike in new cases reported in France and a slight upward trend from the U.S.
France reported 17,164 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 18,526 on Wednesday and 15,595 on Tuesday.
Out of China
It was a data deluge this morning. Key stats included 1st quarter GDP numbers and March retail sales and industrial production figures.
In the 1st quarter, the economy contracted by 9.8%, quarter-on-quarter, following 1.5% growth in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecast a contraction of 9.9%.
Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 6.8%, following 6.0% growth in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecast a contraction of 6.5%.
In March, industrial production fell by 1.1%, year-on-year, which was better than a forecasted 7.3% slide. In February, industrial production had slumped by 13.5%.
Year-on-year, retail sales saw a further decline in March, with sales tumbling by 15.8%. In February, retail sales had fallen by 20.5%. Economists had forecast a 10% slide.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.63802 to $0.63709 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.73% to $0.6373.
Elsewhere
The Japanese Yen was up by 0.19% to ¥107.72 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.77% to $0.6014.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
Its a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized March inflation figures for the Eurozone are due out later this morning.
Deflationary pressures are expected to lead to downward revisions to prelims, which would be EUR negative.
Market risk sentiment and the latest coronavirus numbers and updates from member states on lockdown measures will likely overshadow the numbers, however.
Talks by the U.S President of a phased easing of lockdown measures weighed on the Dollar early in the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.27% to $1.0869.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.
Risk appetite in the day will ultimately dictate the direction of the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.42% to $1.2509, with risk appetite providing early support.
Across the Pond
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats due out to spook the markets.
The lack of stats will leave coronavirus numbers and chatter from Capitol Hill in focus. Through the early part of the day, hopes of a near-term end to lockdown measures pinned the back the Dollar.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.29% to 99.739 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with February’s securities purchase figures due out later today.
We’re unlikely to see too much influence from the figures, however, with risk sentiment the key driver.
Talks of a phased easing of lockdown measures were risk positive and would support a much-needed pickup in demand for crude oil.
The Loonie was up by 0.43% to C$1.4021 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included 1st quarter GDP numbers and March retail sales and industrial production figures. For the Loonie It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with February’s securities purchase figures due out later today. Talks of a phased easing of lockdown measures were risk positive and would support a much-needed pickup in demand for crude oil. | Key stats included 1st quarter GDP numbers and March retail sales and industrial production figures. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Rally Towards Resistance Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound Following Inventory Build GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues Range Bound Trading The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Key take away from the numbers was a spike in new cases reported in France and a slight upward trend from the U.S. France reported 17,164 new cases on Thursday, which was up from 18,526 on Wednesday and 15,595 on Tuesday. Key stats included 1st quarter GDP numbers and March retail sales and industrial production figures. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Rally Towards Resistance Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound Following Inventory Build GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues Range Bound Trading The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included 1st quarter GDP numbers and March retail sales and industrial production figures. In March, industrial production fell by 1.1%, year-on-year, which was better than a forecasted 7.3% slide. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.42% to $1.2509, with risk appetite providing early support. | c377760c-0d58-425c-9779-8e5753501127 |
709117.0 | 2020-04-15 00:00:00 UTC | The Dollar’s on the Move, with Economic Data Likely to Add Further Pressure on Riskier Assets | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dollars-on-the-move-with-economic-data-likely-to-add-further-pressure-on-riskier | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on theeconomic calendar with the Aussie Dollar and the Pound in action.
Outside of the numbers, COVID-19 numbers from the first half had limited influence as market sentiment towards the economic outlook continued to weigh.
On Wednesday, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 13,354 to 625,415. On Tuesday, the number of new cases had risen by 15,595 to 612,061
In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 29,622 to 643,508, taking the total number of cases globally to 2,078,016. On Tuesday, the U.S had reported 27,509 new cases.
For the Aussie Dollar
March employment figures were in focus through the early part of the day. Total employment increased by 5,900, which was far better than a forecasted 35,000 fall. Full employment fell by 400, however, with the unemployment rate rising from 5.1% to 5.2%.
According to the ABS,
The total number of people in full-time employment fell by 400, while people in part-time employment increased by 6,400.
Since March 2019, full-time employment increased by 91,700 people, while part-time employment increased by 136,000 people.
The employment to population ratio fell by 0.1 pts to 62.5% in March 2020, while up by 0.1 pts since March 2019.
While the unemployment rate increased from 5.1% to 5.2%, the participation rate held steady at 66.0%.
It is worth noting that the ABS did point out that the numbers were taken from early March when the full effect of COVID-19 had yet to be felt. April numbers, therefore, will likely paint a very different picture.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.62822 to $0.63095 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.59% to $0.6282.
Elsewhere
The Japanese Yen was down by 0.36% to ¥107.85 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.73% to $0.5947.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
Its a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out include finalized March inflation figures out of German. February industrial production figures for the Eurozone are also due out later in the session.
We would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR, however.
Market sentiment towards the Eurozone’s economic outlook will likely continue to pressure the EUR. The failure of member states to deliver a more sizeable stimulus package would also be EUR negative.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.25% at $1.0883.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. In the early hours of this morning, March retail sales figures provided direction ahead of the BoE’s Credit Conditions Survey.
According to the BRC, the Retail Sales Monitor fell by 3.5% in March, year-on-year, following a 0.4% decline in February.
The Pound moved from $1.25218 to $1.25180 upon release of the figures that preceded the Credit Conditions Survey.
With the BoE Survey to consider later this morning, expect the latest COVID-19 numbers to have less influence.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.25% to $1.2487, with risk aversion weighing early on.
Across the Pond
It’s another busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include the Philly FED Manufacturing Index for April and the weekly jobless claims figures.
Expect both to garner plenty of attention.
From the housing sector, March building permits and housing stats may yet to reflect any market shift in constructor confidence…
Outside of the numbers, there’s been some confusion on whether some U.S States will be in a position to open for business without Trump’s consent. Expect chatter and the latest COVID-19 numbers to also influence. With economic doom and gloom gripping the markets, however, the Dollar is likely to continue to find support.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.35% to 99.812 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with February’s manufacturing sales figures due out later today.
The February numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Loonie, leaving the Loonie in the hands of OPEC’s monthly report.
We’ve seen crude oil prices take another tumble this week. While the Loonie has avoided a return to C$1.42, however, risk aversion on the day and another pullback in crude oil prices will weigh…
The Loonie was down by 0.06% at C$1.4123 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | In the early hours of this morning, March retail sales figures provided direction ahead of the BoE’s Credit Conditions Survey. Across the Pond It’s another busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include the Philly FED Manufacturing Index for April and the weekly jobless claims figures. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Short-Term Bullish Over 99.690, Bearish Under 99.245 Mid-Week Themes – The FED, the ECB, and COVID-19 – The Key Drivers This Week EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 30/04/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the ABS, The total number of people in full-time employment fell by 400, while people in part-time employment increased by 6,400. Since March 2019, full-time employment increased by 91,700 people, while part-time employment increased by 136,000 people. Across the Pond It’s another busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include the Philly FED Manufacturing Index for April and the weekly jobless claims figures. | On Tuesday, the number of new cases had risen by 15,595 to 612,061 In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 29,622 to 643,508, taking the total number of cases globally to 2,078,016. For the Aussie Dollar March employment figures were in focus through the early part of the day. According to the ABS, The total number of people in full-time employment fell by 400, while people in part-time employment increased by 6,400. | For the Aussie Dollar March employment figures were in focus through the early part of the day. Across the Pond It’s another busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar Key stats include the Philly FED Manufacturing Index for April and the weekly jobless claims figures. For the Loonie It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, with February’s manufacturing sales figures due out later today. | 88c61c66-2e00-43ad-b683-0deb8ab3414d |
709118.0 | 2020-04-14 00:00:00 UTC | A Busier Economic Calendar Puts the US Dollar and the Loonie in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-busier-economic-calendar-puts-the-us-dollar-and-the-loonie-in-the-spotlight-2020-04-15 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar, with the Aussie Dollar in action once more.
Outside of the numbers, the markets also responded to the COVID-19 numbers from the early part of the week.
On Tuesday, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 15,595 to 612,061. In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 27,509 to 613,886. That took the total number of cases globally to 1,997,666.
For the 4 most adversely affected EU member states, a run of 3 consecutive daily falls in the number of new cases came to an end. The U.S saw a run 4 consecutive daily declines come to an end. While there was a pickup in the number of new cases from the day prior, the numbers were still well below the latter part of last week.
While the coronavirus numbers were still market positive, the IMF weighed on risk appetite. Overnight, the IMF warned that the global economy would see its worst slowdown since the Great Depression. It revised its growth forecast for 2020 from 3.3% growth to a 3% contraction. For the U.S, the IMF forecasted a contraction of 6% and raised doubts of a V-shaped rebound.
For the Aussie Dollar
Consumer confidence took a hit in April, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index sliding by 17.7% to 75.6. Economists had forecast a 15% fall to 78 following a 3.8% decline to 91.9 in March.
According to the latest Westpac Report,
The monthly decline was the largest in the 47-year history of the survey, with all 5 component sub-indexes on the slide.
Looking at the sub-components:
The economy, next 12-months sub-index slid by 31% to 53.7, with the time to buy a major household item falling by 31.6%.
Time to buy a dwelling slid by 26.6%, with the House Price Expectations Index tumbling by 50.8%.
Family finances vs a year ago fell by 14.8% to 70.4, with family finances next 12 months falling by 6.6% to 90.9.
The economy next 5-years saw a modest 3.8% decline, while the Unemployment Expectations Index rose by 8.2% to 158.1.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64255 to $0.64286 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.29% to $0.6423.
Elsewhere
The Japanese Yen was up by 0.18% to ¥107.03 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.44% to $0.6079.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
Its relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with finalized inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain due out.
Barring a deviation from prelim figures, however, the March figures are unlikely to have an impact on the EUR.
The markets are expecting deflationary pressures to build as a result of the lockdown…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% at $1.0985.
For the Pound
It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK later today.
A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of market risk sentiment and the latest COVID-19 numbers.
Medical experts have predicted that the virus will peak late this week. This continues to support an easing in containment measures at the end of the month, assuming that there is no sudden uptrend in new cases.
While the UK is expected to fall into a recession, a 1-month shut down would support a speedier economic recovery.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2620.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats due out this afternoon include March retail sales and industrial production figures and April’s NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.
While March retail sales figures could be skewed as a result of hoarding, industrial production and manufacturing numbers will garner plenty of interest.
Outside of the numbers, the markets will also be looking for further updates on which states are likely to ease lockdown measures.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 98.861 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and the Bank of Canada. The weekly API and EIA inventory numbers will be in focus along with the IEA’s monthly report.
Further talk of oil producers cutting production by a further 10m bpd would be Loonie positive, as would a continued fall in the number of new coronavirus cases.
On the monetary policy front, no further rate cuts are expected, leaving forward guidance to set the tone.
The Loonie was down by 0.17% at C$1.3906 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats due out this afternoon include March retail sales and industrial production figures and April’s NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. While March retail sales figures could be skewed as a result of hoarding, industrial production and manufacturing numbers will garner plenty of interest. Further talk of oil producers cutting production by a further 10m bpd would be Loonie positive, as would a continued fall in the number of new coronavirus cases. | On Tuesday, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 15,595 to 612,061. The Day Ahead: For the EUR Its relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with finalized inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain due out. Key stats due out this afternoon include March retail sales and industrial production figures and April’s NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. | While there was a pickup in the number of new cases from the day prior, the numbers were still well below the latter part of last week. The Day Ahead: For the EUR Its relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with finalized inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain due out. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Traders Indecisive Ahead of Fed Announcements GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Sterling Struggles to Gain on a Broadly Weaker Dollar The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers -29/04/20 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | That took the total number of cases globally to 1,997,666. For the Pound It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK later today. The Loonie was down by 0.17% at C$1.3906 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 4c595768-e2e5-440b-b0f7-71dee97867fe |
709119.0 | 2020-04-08 00:00:00 UTC | COVID-19 Remains the Key Driver, with UK and the U.S Stats also in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/covid-19-remains-the-key-driver-with-uk-and-the-u.s-stats-also-in-focus-2020-04-09 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar on Thursday. The Kiwi Dollar, Aussie Dollar, and British Pound were in action in the early part of the day.
Outside of the numbers, the markets also responded to the latest COVID-19 figures.
On Wednesday, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 13,365 to 513,888. In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 25,965 to 426,300. That took the total number of cases globally to 1,506,361.
Key take away from the numbers was a marked decline in the new of new cases amongst the 4 EU member states. On Wednesday, there were 13,365 new cases, which was down from 29,916 on Tuesday. Numbers from the U.S were also better, with the number of new cases down from 32,950 to 25,965.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Electronic card retail sales slid by 3.9% in March, month-on-month, reversing a 0.5% increase in February.
According to NZ Stats,
Spending on eating out and accommodation plunged by more than NZ$300m as a result of COVID-19 containment measures.
Groceries had record-high sales in March of NZ$376m, a rise of 17%.
Sales of clothes and shoes slumped by 31%, spending on fuel slid by 19%, with furniture, hardware & appliances seeing a 20% fall in sales.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60124 to $0.60139 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.12% to $0.6005.
For the Aussie Dollar
Through the early part of the day, the RBA released its Financial Stability Review that contained few, if any, positive takeaways. The spread and impact of the coronavirus was the main area of focus.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.62321 to $0.62084 upon release of the RBA’s Financial Stability Review. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.19% to $0.6218.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.12% to ¥108.96 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with Germany’s February trade figures in focus.
While we consider February numbers of little influence, today’s data will garner some interest. In February, we saw the supply chain broken, with worse to come in March, so we could get a sense of what’s to come.
Survey-based figures for March were dire, while February industrial production and factory orders were not as bad as forecasted.
We then saw a rebound in China’s private sector in March, though export demand continued to sag. All in all, a marked narrowing in the trade surplus could lead to a possible deficit in March…
Outside of the numbers, we expect that Wednesday’s coronavirus numbers will also influence. If we see a marked fall in the number of new cases the markets will likely brush aside the trade figures.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% at $1.0861.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar.
Key stats include February Manufacturing and Industrial production and GDP numbers.
While the numbers are for February, expect the Pound to come under pressure if the stats disappoint. The markets are all too aware of what lies ahead in March and April. A dire February would almost assure a recession and the need for further support, both fiscal and monetary…
Expect February trade figures to have a muted impact, however.
Outside of the numbers, while the markets will consider the latest COVID-19 updates, Boris Johnson’s health may have greater influence.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.15% to $1.2401.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Wholesale inflation figures for March are due out, along with April economic sentiment and the weekly jobless claims numbers.
Can the markets stomach another shock surge in initial jobless claims? Surely we won’t be seeing 6m plus numbers…
Economic sentiment figures are certainly up for a tumble, with wholesale inflationary pressures likely to ease.
Outside of the numbers, chatter from the Oval Office and the latest COVID-19 figures will also provide direction.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 100.110 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with March employment numbers in focus.
There are unlikely to be any positives for the markets to hold onto… Economists have forecast a 350k slump in employment and an unemployment rate of 7.2%.
An OPEC – Russia deal alone to scale back on production is not going to be enough. Trump is going to have to nudge shale producers to refuse oil dollars to also support the Loonie.
If the BoC thought it was done, the RBNZ’s message from Wednesday suggests that central bank action in March was just the beginning…
The Loonie was up by 0.09% at C$1.4025 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar Through the early part of the day, the RBA released its Financial Stability Review that contained few, if any, positive takeaways. If the BoC thought it was done, the RBNZ’s message from Wednesday suggests that central bank action in March was just the beginning… The Loonie was up by 0.09% at C$1.4025 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Rally but Finish the Week Lower U.S Mortgage Rates See Rates Rise as Lenders Price in Risk Amidst the Economic Uncertainty Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs Predict Big Gold Breakout The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar Through the early part of the day, the RBA released its Financial Stability Review that contained few, if any, positive takeaways. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with Germany’s February trade figures in focus. Wholesale inflation figures for March are due out, along with April economic sentiment and the weekly jobless claims numbers. | Numbers from the U.S were also better, with the number of new cases down from 32,950 to 25,965. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with Germany’s February trade figures in focus. For the Loonie It’s also a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with March employment numbers in focus. | The Kiwi Dollar, Aussie Dollar, and British Pound were in action in the early part of the day. Numbers from the U.S were also better, with the number of new cases down from 32,950 to 25,965. For the Loonie It’s also a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with March employment numbers in focus. | 4f73e0bd-e7c8-4fbc-bebd-73d09b5dac54 |
709120.0 | 2020-04-07 00:00:00 UTC | The Greenback Finds Early Support ahead of Today’s FOMC Meeting Minutes | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-greenback-finds-early-support-ahead-of-todays-fomc-meeting-minutes-2020-04-08 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen was in action in the early hours.
Outside of the numbers, the markets also continued to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers. Following the lower number of new cases on Monday, new cases were on the rise once more on Tuesday. Fatalities also continued to rise, weighing on risk appetite.
On Tuesday, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy and Spain rose by 23,653 to 494,260. In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 32,950 to 400,335. That took the total number of cases globally to 1,431,054.
Key take away from the numbers was 3,039 new cases in Italy, which was up from the 901 new cases on Monday. France also reported another spike, with 11,059 cases, which was up from 5,171 new cases on Monday.
For the Japanese Yen
Core machinery orders rose by 2.3% in February, month-on-month, coming in ahead of a forecasted 2.7% decline. In January, orders had risen by 2.9%. Year-on-year, orders fell by 2.4%, following a 0.3% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 2.9% fall.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.707 to ¥108.577 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥108.77 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.57% to $0.6135, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.44% to $0.5951. While the Aussie Dollar gave up some of Tuesday’s RBA fueled gains, central bank policy weighed on the Kiwi Dollar.
Early this morning, RBNZ Assistant Gov. Hawkesby stated that they remained ready to adjust the size of the QE program as and when deemed appropriate. He also added that the OCR could be cut into negative territory at some point in the future.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction.
The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of the coronavirus numbers and sentiment towards the economic outlook.
Based on the latest figures and March stats out of the Eurozone, both remain EUR negative.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.24% at $1.0866.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out ahead of tomorrow’s data deluge, which will leave the Pound in the hands of the news wires.
The markets will be in search of updates on the British PM’s health, with Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab considered negative for the Pound. Standing in for Johnson, there are concerns that the Foreign Secretary may rein in fiscal policy support at a time when the coronavirus peak has yet to come.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.11% to $1.2318.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with FOMC meeting minutes in focus late in the session.
The markets will be looking for any forward guidance on policy and the economic outlook. We’ve seen the FED throw in the kitchen sink, which leaves the question of what ammunition they have left. Further support may well be needed should the lockdown extend into May…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.21% to 100.114 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with housing sector numbers in focus later this afternoon.
March housing start numbers will garner some attention, with the spread of the coronavirus likely to hit the housing sector. February building permits, however, will likely have a muted impact on the day.
Outside of the numbers, risk sentiment will provide direction on the day ahead of tomorrow’s OPEC Plus meeting.
The Loonie was down by 0.26% at C$1.4030 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The markets will be in search of updates on the British PM’s health, with Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab considered negative for the Pound. Standing in for Johnson, there are concerns that the Foreign Secretary may rein in fiscal policy support at a time when the coronavirus peak has yet to come. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Fiscal, Monetary Stimulus Expectations Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Continues To Rebound After Recent Sell-Off Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Short-Covering Supported by Renewed Middle East Tensions The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction. For the Loonie It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with housing sector numbers in focus later this afternoon. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Fiscal, Monetary Stimulus Expectations Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Continues To Rebound After Recent Sell-Off Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Short-Covering Supported by Renewed Middle East Tensions The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction. For the Loonie It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with housing sector numbers in focus later this afternoon. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Supported by Fiscal, Monetary Stimulus Expectations Silver Price Daily Forecast – Silver Continues To Rebound After Recent Sell-Off Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Short-Covering Supported by Renewed Middle East Tensions The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, the markets also continued to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers. For the Japanese Yen Core machinery orders rose by 2.3% in February, month-on-month, coming in ahead of a forecasted 2.7% decline. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥108.77 against the U.S Dollar. | 2744496a-c724-4aaa-9ba1-6fb3af399faf |
709121.0 | 2020-04-05 00:00:00 UTC | A Light Economic Calendar Leaves the Markets in the Hands of COVID-19 and OPEC | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-light-economic-calendar-leaves-the-markets-in-the-hands-of-covid-19-and-opec-2020-04-06 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar on Monday, with no material stats to provide direction early on.
A lack of stats left the markets to react to the U.S labor market numbers and the latest COVID-19 figures.
At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 16,711 to 453,556. In the U.S, the total number of cases increased by 24,774 to 336,131. That took the total number of cases globally to 1,270,916. The increases on Sunday were significantly lower than Saturday, which was positive for riskier assets.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.55% to $0.6030, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.09% to $0.5883. The Japanese Yen was down by 0.34% to ¥108.92 against the U.S Dollar.
In the equity markets, market reaction to the fewer number of new COVID-19 cases reported on Sunday delivered early support. The ASX200 was up by 2.33%, with the Nikkei up by 2.73%, at the time of writing.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany factory orders for February are due out later this morning.
Barring weak numbers, the markets will likely brush aside the figures. February stats are yet to reflect the effects of the coronavirus on the German economy.
Outside of the numbers, the latest coronavirus numbers will have a greater impact on the day. Talk of the virus peaking in Spain should provide support at the start of the week. That is in stark contrast from the message from the U.S, where Trump warned of the toughest week ahead.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.14% at $1.0816.
For the Pound
It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. March Construction PMI figures are due out in the early part of the day.
With little else on theeconomic calendarfor the markets to consider until Thursday, the Pound will be sensitive to the numbers.
Ultimately, expect the latest coronavirus numbers to have a greater influence on the day. One negative for the Pound, however, was news of Boris Johnson being admitted to hospital over the weekend.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.20% to $1.2244.
Across the Pond
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the U.S.
A lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy in focus. We saw the Dollar find further support at the end of last week. There may well be more of the same if Trump proves to be correct.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.14% to 100.712 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
A lack of stats leaves the emergency OPEC – Russia oil meeting in focus on the day. U.S President Trump talked up a 10m bpd cut in oil production. Failure by Russia and OPEC to deliver will weigh heavily on crude oil prices and the Loonie on the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.02% at C$1.4202 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 16,711 to 453,556. Failure by Russia and OPEC to deliver will weigh heavily on crude oil prices and the Loonie on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Needs to Hold 99.925 Pivot to Sustain Upside Momentum US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Drop and Volatility Climbs as Oil Continues to Fall Oil Volatility is a Sight to Behold The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 16,711 to 453,556. Across the Pond It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the U.S. A lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy in focus. For the Loonie It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar on Monday, with no material stats to provide direction early on. Across the Pond It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the U.S. A lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy in focus. For the Loonie It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction. | At the time of writing, the total number of coronavirus cases across France, Germany, Italy, and Spain rose by 16,711 to 453,556. Across the Pond It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the U.S. A lack of stats leaves market sentiment towards the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy in focus. The Loonie was up by 0.02% at C$1.4202 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | c918e1e2-f23d-470b-8e14-e75e8ef3d663 |
709122.0 | 2020-04-03 00:00:00 UTC | End Of Week Technical Take on Indexes, Metals, Currencies, Oil: April 3, 2020 | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/end-of-week-technical-take-on-indexes-metals-currencies-oil%3A-april-3-2020-2020-04-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
See what to expect today and next week as we have some huge moves about to start up again. Chris Vermeulen of http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com shares his take on all the major asset classes in this quick but high-level view on key assets.
Indexes, Metals, Currencies Video Analysis for 03.04.20
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - See what to expect today and next week as we have some huge moves about to start up again. Chris Vermeulen of http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com shares his take on all the major asset classes in this quick but high-level view on key assets. Indexes, Metals, Currencies Video Analysis for 03.04.20 This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Stocks To Watch This Week Gold Daily News: Monday, April 20 Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets at Major Level The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - See what to expect today and next week as we have some huge moves about to start up again. Chris Vermeulen of http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com shares his take on all the major asset classes in this quick but high-level view on key assets. Indexes, Metals, Currencies Video Analysis for 03.04.20 This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Stocks To Watch This Week Gold Daily News: Monday, April 20 Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets at Major Level The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - See what to expect today and next week as we have some huge moves about to start up again. Chris Vermeulen of http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com shares his take on all the major asset classes in this quick but high-level view on key assets. Indexes, Metals, Currencies Video Analysis for 03.04.20 This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Stocks To Watch This Week Gold Daily News: Monday, April 20 Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets at Major Level The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - See what to expect today and next week as we have some huge moves about to start up again. Chris Vermeulen of http://www.TheTechnicalTraders.com shares his take on all the major asset classes in this quick but high-level view on key assets. Indexes, Metals, Currencies Video Analysis for 03.04.20 This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Stocks To Watch This Week Gold Daily News: Monday, April 20 Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets at Major Level The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | 5d9e3736-fa00-49d6-bbad-996b1b82fc51 |
709123.0 | 2020-04-02 00:00:00 UTC | Service Sector PMI and U.S Nonfarm Payrolls Put the EUR and USD in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/service-sector-pmi-and-u.s-nonfarm-payrolls-put-the-eur-and-usd-in-the-spotlight-2020-04 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar on Friday. The Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen were in action in the early part of the day.
Outside of the numbers, the markets also continued to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers.
At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 244,433. For Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, the combined number of cases stood at 371,206. The total global number of cases increased to 1,104,499.
For the Aussie Dollar
Retail sales rose by 0.5% in February, reversing a 0.3% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise.
According to the ABS,
Food retailing (+0.8%), department store sales (+3.1%), and household goods retailing (+0.7%) were the main contributors.
There were also rises in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services (+0.2%) and other retailing (+0.2%).
Clothing, footwear, and personal accessory retailing slumped by 2.9%, however.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.60548 to $0.60507 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6060.
For the Japanese Yen
The Services PMI came in at 33.8, which was up from a prelim 32.7, while down from a February 46.8.
According to the finalized Markit survey,
Service sector activity slumped at the fastest pace since February 2009, with output falling at a near-record pace.
The spread of COVID-19 led to a marked fall in client demand, leading to lower workloads and staff layoffs.
New business fell at by the greatest amount since April 2011, which had been as a result of the Tsunami.
Business confidence also saw a steep drop as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.994 to ¥108.115 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥107.95 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
The Caixin March Services PMI rose from 26.5 to 43.0.
According to the Caixin Survey,
Business activity and new work both declined at a slower pace.
Companies cut staff numbers at the quickest pace on record, however. This was attributed to rising operating costs and subdued demand.
While sentiment improved from February’s all-time low, business confidence in March was the 2nd weakest on record.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.60555 to $0.60601 upon release of the figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.14% to $0.5908.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Spanish and Italian service sector PMI numbers for March are due out. Finalized PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone and will also garner attention.
Service sector activity is at risk of imploding as a result of the extended lockdown across the EU. Expect today’s numbers to be worse than those seen in February, for Italy and Spain. Downward revisions to prelim figures are also likely.
Expect Eurozone retail sales figures for February to take a back seat later in the session.
Outside of the numbers, the latest coronavirus numbers will also influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% at $1.0854.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized March Services and Composite PMIs are due out in the early part of the day.
Downward revisions would certainly test support levels for the Pound but unlikely sink it. Coronavirus numbers continue to be far fewer than other EU member states. The UK Government’s preparedness to deliver more fiscal policy is also key near-term.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.10% to $1.2384.
Across the Pond
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar.
It is not just nonfarm payrolls and wage growth figures in focus but also March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers in focus.
Following even more dire weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday, the ISM numbers will likely have a greater impact.
Expect finalized Markit PMI numbers to have a muted impact on the day.
Also of interest on the day will be the latest coronavirus numbers and any fresh government plans to tackle the continued spread of the virus…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 100.196 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
With a lack of stats, the Loonie will remain in the hands of market sentiment towards the global economic outlook and demand for crude.
The numbers continue to get worse as the virus spreads, which remains negative for the Loonie near-term. For crude oil price stability, an actual cut in production would certainly ease some of the pain…
The Loonie was down by 0.10% at C$1.4152 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Also of interest on the day will be the latest coronavirus numbers and any fresh government plans to tackle the continued spread of the virus… The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 100.196 at the time of writing. With a lack of stats, the Loonie will remain in the hands of market sentiment towards the global economic outlook and demand for crude. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: US Equity Markets: Recession Signals Mount While Investors Increase Bets on Recovery The Week Ahead – It’s All About the Lockdowns and the Hope of an Economic U-Turn Gold Price Prediction – Prices Drop on Profit Taking The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the finalized Markit survey, Service sector activity slumped at the fastest pace since February 2009, with output falling at a near-record pace. Out of China The Caixin March Services PMI rose from 26.5 to 43.0. Expect Eurozone retail sales figures for February to take a back seat later in the session. | Outside of the numbers, the markets also continued to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Also of interest on the day will be the latest coronavirus numbers and any fresh government plans to tackle the continued spread of the virus… The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 100.196 at the time of writing. | According to the finalized Markit survey, Service sector activity slumped at the fastest pace since February 2009, with output falling at a near-record pace. Expect finalized Markit PMI numbers to have a muted impact on the day. The numbers continue to get worse as the virus spreads, which remains negative for the Loonie near-term. | fbe15a79-b794-47d9-9c90-3ea9a63540f4 |
709124.0 | 2020-04-02 00:00:00 UTC | Equities Take a Stroll Through Wonderland, Awaiting “Herd Immunity.” | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/equities-take-a-stroll-through-wonderland-awaiting-herd-immunity.-2020-04-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Markets
US equities were stronger Thursday, S&P closing 2.3% higher. Smaller gains in Europe, mixed in Asia. US 10Y treasury yields up 2bps to 0.61%. Oil prices lifted 22.1% after the US president indicated that he expected Russia and Saudi Arabia would agree to reduce production by “approximately 10 million barrels, and maybe substantially more”. Price action has been choppy, though, as Russia denied talks had taken place only for Saudi officials to express willingness to reduce production if others did as well. Separately, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus has surpassed 1 million globally, having doubled in the past week.
US initial claims rise more than 3mn for another week, a spike in continuing claims suggests the labor market has come to a full stop Initial claims jobless claims for the week ended March 28 were 6.6mn, up 3.3mn from the previous week.
Since markets have seemingly become immune to the rise in COVID 19 case counts, I’m not sure where the more important story lies today. Is oil the talk of the town, or is it the thought-provoking ( non) price action across a breadth of US asset classes in the aftermath of the ghastly jobless claims number. The optimistic read here is that the market is already toggled for horrendous economic numbers. In other words, a bleak picture is already in the price.
But the process of risk normalization will continue to be chaotic, and we should expect it to stay on a downward, albeit choppy, trend for the stock markets. After all, the world is expected to extend lockdowns.
Even if the market has seemingly hit a trough, equities rarely bounce back to their previous highs immediately. A medical breakthrough could cause that, but for investors to get back on board the rally bus, they will need to see falling case numbers, alongside an end in sight to mobility restrictions.
We are entering a climate with lower or no dividends, fewer financial options, but most importantly, fewer jobs, lower output, and probably a lot fewer companies around the word. Many small and large-sized businesses will not survive this storm.
I’m not sure what to say about the speed with which the labor market is being hit. Jobless claims of 10M in May would be eye-popping. But 6M was incomprehensible a month ago. It came that quickly one day there the next day gone.
I’m not so much a bear as a realist and not buying into the notion that this is a temporary dip followed by a huge rebound. Voluminous job losses and bankruptcies could lead to permanent wealth deviation. If and when things return to normal, restaurants and hotels (for example) will hire back in a gradual, incremental, and cautious way. And Wave 2 fears will lurk around every previous and cranny until we either achieve “herd immunity” or a health care solution is discovered.
Thanks to the volatility suppressant nature of the unprecedented peacetime fiscal and monetary stimulus. Market makers feel comfortable replenishing inventories of their favorite COVID 19 risk immune stocks on a dip, and now they can gingerly add oil stocks back to their laundry lists despite being hampered by a wet blanket. So for today anyway, all is good in the Wonderland scenario.
In the meantime, our energies should be less focused on the yield curve and currency markets, and more focused on the roll out the proper test, track, and trace technology in the major economies.
Oil markets
Based on my dire macro views from above, I don’t think WTI prices have that much farther to climb, and I’m sticking to my guns that WTI $25 will be the new normal over the short term until a compliance deal gets sorted out. Even then, given the worrisome logistics of shutting in 20- million barrels of oil per day needed to balance the markets and where the cure might be worse than the symptoms itself, adjusting the oil markets to any semblance of balance is next to impossible.
At this stage, probably the best we can count on is graduated, and globally coordinated production curtailment that will provide sufficient wiggle room before its game over when storage capacity overflows, and oil becomes cheaper than the tanks it’s physically stored. And in this scenario, we could see WTI $30 be then new short term benchmarks.
Gold markets
Gold rebounds as data show US jobless surge and as bullion bullishly ignored the equity rally and firm USD.
Gold continued to reverse recent losses, jumping in active trading. After steadying in Asia, gold began to move higher in Europe with the gains then accelerating in US action. Initially, the broader financial markets struggled for direction with no clear indication of risk sentiment. The initial move in gold was likely triggered by rising oil prices, which points to less deflation and improves gold outlook.
But the short term game-changer for gold came with the release of the US jobless claims. In addition to being a new record weekly rise, the data was above the highest expectations.
The fact that gold moved higher despite stronger equities and a firmer US dollar suggests there could b a bit more upside to come. But with near term positioning, a bit stretched, it’s difficult to gauge if there still enough meat on the bone to whet investors appetite for bullion on a Friday after a roller-coaster week.
My view is to reduce into the weekend as I’m not a fan of when correlations break positively or negatively for gold as the misalignment never seems to stick over time. You can tell your self this time is different until you turn blue in the face, but you’re probably wrong.
Currency markets
The Euro
The Euro is unlikely to get much headroom with the dollar still in demand and Europe in lockdown. While there are nascent signs that Chinese activity is returning to normal levels, much of the west remains in lockdown. As a result, markets have come under severe pressure as the virus has spread trigger dollar safe-haven flows.
But there is an opportunity here. With the cost of hedging dollars now significantly reduced and with the virus showing signs of slowing Europe compared to the US. Its the coronavirus divergence and not the yield curve convergence trade that opens up a panacea for short dollar positioning. Currencies of countries that will see the virus pass quicker should be in demand as those nations will see a faster economic recovery.
The Yen
Not sure how much is left to do from the GPIF US bond purchases from a week ago assuming we are nearing the end. US funding pressure has recanted, and US yields are low enough to send the USDJPY toppling on the next sigs of equity market weakness. There is less exporter selling demand for general hedging purposes. Its likely offset by fewer importer dollar demand with oil prices in the $ ’20s.Although there has been a bounce in the USDJPY with risk sentiment, USDJPY and S&P 500 is not the truth bearer. Instead, its US rates that are the truth stayer so we could see USDJPY fall under pressure on the first sings of equity market weakness what will undoubtedly happen sooner or later. If you are bearish equities, now might be a good time to get short USDJPY.
The Ringgit
A more positive risk sentiment, USD dollar funding easing, and the prospect of higher oil prices should see the Ringgit trade on a more friendly not today. A rise in oil prices sheds a lot of unwelcome baggage that has been hobbling the KLCI. And while the bounce in oil does not signal an all in green light for the Ringgit, we’re in a much better position today than we were mired in midweek, which is a good thing for local sentiment.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Oil prices lifted 22.1% after the US president indicated that he expected Russia and Saudi Arabia would agree to reduce production by “approximately 10 million barrels, and maybe substantially more”. A medical breakthrough could cause that, but for investors to get back on board the rally bus, they will need to see falling case numbers, alongside an end in sight to mobility restrictions. At this stage, probably the best we can count on is graduated, and globally coordinated production curtailment that will provide sufficient wiggle room before its game over when storage capacity overflows, and oil becomes cheaper than the tanks it’s physically stored. | Gold markets Gold rebounds as data show US jobless surge and as bullion bullishly ignored the equity rally and firm USD. The Ringgit A more positive risk sentiment, USD dollar funding easing, and the prospect of higher oil prices should see the Ringgit trade on a more friendly not today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: A Week in Review – 18/04/20 Global Crisis: Time to Enter the Market US Equity Markets: Recession Signals Mount While Investors Increase Bets on Recovery The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | US initial claims rise more than 3mn for another week, a spike in continuing claims suggests the labor market has come to a full stop Initial claims jobless claims for the week ended March 28 were 6.6mn, up 3.3mn from the previous week. Even then, given the worrisome logistics of shutting in 20- million barrels of oil per day needed to balance the markets and where the cure might be worse than the symptoms itself, adjusting the oil markets to any semblance of balance is next to impossible. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: A Week in Review – 18/04/20 Global Crisis: Time to Enter the Market US Equity Markets: Recession Signals Mount While Investors Increase Bets on Recovery The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | US initial claims rise more than 3mn for another week, a spike in continuing claims suggests the labor market has come to a full stop Initial claims jobless claims for the week ended March 28 were 6.6mn, up 3.3mn from the previous week. Its likely offset by fewer importer dollar demand with oil prices in the $ ’20s.Although there has been a bounce in the USDJPY with risk sentiment, USDJPY and S&P 500 is not the truth bearer. If you are bearish equities, now might be a good time to get short USDJPY. | 62e8a6ed-07a2-4621-88c4-554f19b65ca2 |
709125.0 | 2020-04-01 00:00:00 UTC | A Choppy Day Ahead, with U.S Weekly Jobless Claims the Only Distraction | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-choppy-day-ahead-with-u.s-weekly-jobless-claims-the-only-distraction-2020-04-02 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the day on the economic calendar on Thursday. There were no material stats out through the Asian session to provide direction in the early part of the day.
A lack of the numbers left the markets to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers and the overnight moves in the U.S.
At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 214,482. For Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, the combined number of cases stood at 349.662. The total global number of cases rose to 934.464.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.23% to ¥107.42 against the U.S Dollar, while, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.33% to $0.6091. The Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.37% to $0.5934.
While the commodity currencies found support at the expense of the U.S Dollar and Japanese Yen, it was risk-off in the equity markets.
At the time of writing, the Nikkei was down by 0.83%, with the ASX200 down by 3.14%.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Spanish unemployment figures are due out ahead of the European open.
The numbers are yet to reflect the impact of the coronavirus on the Spanish economy, which will mute the impact on the EUR.
Expect the news wires, the latest coronavirus numbers, and projections to provide direction on the day.
Weak economic data and a looming recession have weighed on the EUR this week. The lack of stats will leave the narrative unchanged.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.16% at $1.0946.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. March’s Construction PMI is due out in the early part of the day.
Barring a material slide, however, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Pound.
While economic doom and gloom and risk aversion pressure the Pound, there are a number of support mechanisms. The first is the government plans to deliver further fiscal policy support and the second is the lower number of coronavirus cases…
A slowdown in the rate of infection could eventually give the markets an alternative safe haven to consider…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.16% to $1.2391.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Expect February factory orders and trade data to have a muted impact on the Dollar and the U.S equity markets.
The markets will be looking for a lower number of weekly initial jobless claims, however. Anything close to last week’s numbers and it will likely hit risk appetite…
As always, expect the latest coronavirus numbers to also provide direction. The markets will be hoping that the latest forecasts are on the pessimistic side…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 99.603 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with February trade data in focus.
While the Bank of Canada has made its moves, the numbers will garner some interest. It will give a sense of what’s to come, with BoC monetary policy unlikely to soften the economic blow until late Q2…
From elsewhere, the markets will also need to monitor chatter from the Saudis, the Russians and the U.S on crude oil production intentions.
The Loonie was up by 0.08% at C$1.4179 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. A pickup in crude oil prices provided early support alongside a softer U.S Dollar.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The first is the government plans to deliver further fiscal policy support and the second is the lower number of coronavirus cases… A slowdown in the rate of infection could eventually give the markets an alternative safe haven to consider… At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.16% to $1.2391. Expect February factory orders and trade data to have a muted impact on the Dollar and the U.S equity markets. It will give a sense of what’s to come, with BoC monetary policy unlikely to soften the economic blow until late Q2… From elsewhere, the markets will also need to monitor chatter from the Saudis, the Russians and the U.S on crude oil production intentions. | For the Loonie It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with February trade data in focus. A pickup in crude oil prices provided early support alongside a softer U.S Dollar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pulled Back Slightly After Rising GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Sluggish at Major Level Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Get Massive Bounce The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A lack of the numbers left the markets to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers and the overnight moves in the U.S. At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 214,482. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pulled Back Slightly After Rising GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Sluggish at Major Level Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Get Massive Bounce The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | There were no material stats out through the Asian session to provide direction in the early part of the day. A lack of the numbers left the markets to respond to the latest coronavirus numbers and the overnight moves in the U.S. At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 214,482. For the Pound It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. | 8994ca41-4a57-4c2a-a88b-cb1cf92d29a2 |
709126.0 | 2020-03-31 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data May not Be Enough to Shift Focus as COVID-19 Continues to Spread… | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-may-not-be-enough-to-shift-focus-as-covid-19-continues-to-spread...-2020-04 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another busy start to the day on the economic calendar. The Aussie Dollar and Japanese Yen were in action through the Asian session.
Outside of the numbers, the markets also continued to monitor the latest coronavirus numbers.
At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 187.347. For Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, the combined number of cases stood at 325,651. The total global number of cases rose to 856,917.
For the Japanese Yen
1st quarter Tankan survey numbers were in focus.
According to the latest survey, All Big Industry CAPEX rose by 1.8% in the 1st quarter, following a 6.8% rise in the 4th quarter. Economists had forecast a 1.1% decline.
With the sector having been in the hands of the U.S – China trade war last year, it was the coronavirus that weighed on sentiment in Q1. The Big Manufacturing Outlook Index slid from 0.0 to -11.0 in the 1st quarter.
Things were not much better for large manufacturers and non-manufacturers. The Large Manufacturers Index fell from 5 to -8, with the Large Non-Manufacturers Index falling from 20 to 8. Economists had been more pessimistic, however…
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.524 to ¥107.352 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.13% to ¥107.68 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
February manufacturing and building approval figures were in focus ahead of March’s Manufacturing PMI out of China.
In March, the AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 44.3 to 53.7. Following a fall from 45.4 to 44.3 in February, the rebound brought an end to 4-consecutive months of contraction.
According to the March report,
Stockpiling was attributed to the boost in local food and grocery manufacturing at the end of the quarter.
Personal care items also saw a surge in demand, supporting the March jump.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61497 to $0.61488 upon release of the figures that preceded building approvals and China’s PMI.
Building approvals surged by 19.9% in February, reversing a 15.3% slump in January.
According to the ABS,
Private sector houses saw a 0.8% decline, while private sector dwellings excluding houses jumped by 61.7%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61349 to $0.61324 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s March Manufacturing PMI.
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.23% to $0.6117.
Out of China
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 40.3 to 50.1 in March. Economists had forecast an increase to 45.5.
According to the Caixin survey,
Production saw a marginal increase in March, while the pandemic continued to weigh on demand and supply chains.
Total new work fell for a 2nd consecutive month, with delivery times lengthening.
The global spread of the virus led to a marked decline in new export orders in the month.
Employment conditions continued to deteriorate, though the rate of decline eased from the previous month.
In spite of the continued spread of the virus, firms remained upbeat that production would increase over the next year.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61197 to $0.61187 upon release of the figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.20% to $0.5944.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out include March Manufacturing PMIs for Spain and Italy and finalized Manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
Italy and Spain’s Manufacturing PMIs will certainly garner plenty of attention though expect Italy’s to have the greatest impact. The region’s 2nd largest manufacturer has been in lockdown mode throughout March, so the numbers are likely to be dire…
Any downward revisions to prelim numbers from France, Germany, and the Eurozone will also test support levels. The ECB has talked of a recession and today’s numbers could reinforce that view…
We would expect the Eurozone’s unemployment rate and Germany’s retail sales figures for February to have a muted impact.
Outside of the stats, the latest updates on the coronavirus numbers will also provide direction. A smaller increase in the number of new cases would provide support to the EUR. The latest numbers reflected another sizeable increase on Tuesday, however.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.18% at $1.1011.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized March Manufacturing PMI numbers are due out in the early part of the day.
Barring a material deviation from prelim, the PMI should have a relatively muted impact on the Pound.
The focus will remain on the coronavirus numbers, with the UK seeing a steady yet moderate rise. While on the rise, the total remains well below total cases from Italy, Spain, Germany, and France.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.35% to $1.2377.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. The market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI for March is due out along with ADP Nonfarm Employment Change numbers.
Expect the ISM numbers to have a greater impact on the day.
Finalized Markit Manufacturing PMI numbers should have a muted impact on the Dollar.
Outside of the numbers, chatter from the Oval Office will need monitoring. As numbers continue to surge, hopes of a return to BAU at the end of April may begin to fade.
Should risk aversion return, we could see the Dollar Spot Index return to 100 levels before any pullback. Yes, the U.S economy will suffer but others will see conditions deteriorate more dramatically…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.07% to 99.120 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
Expect chatter on the U.S – Russia talks, Saudis production plans, and the weekly EIA inventory numbers to be in focus.
Even decent PMI numbers out of China had failed to stop the slide on Tuesday…
The Loonie was down by 0.30% at C$1.4104 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The ECB has talked of a recession and today’s numbers could reinforce that view… We would expect the Eurozone’s unemployment rate and Germany’s retail sales figures for February to have a muted impact. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 16/04/20 Litecoin, Stellar’s Lumen, and Tron’s TRX – Daily Analysis – 16/04/20 European Equities: Futures Point to more Red as Investors Struggle to Shake off the IMF Forecasts The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar February manufacturing and building approval figures were in focus ahead of March’s Manufacturing PMI out of China. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61349 to $0.61324 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s March Manufacturing PMI. Key stats due out include March Manufacturing PMIs for Spain and Italy and finalized Manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone. | For the Aussie Dollar February manufacturing and building approval figures were in focus ahead of March’s Manufacturing PMI out of China. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61349 to $0.61324 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s March Manufacturing PMI. The region’s 2nd largest manufacturer has been in lockdown mode throughout March, so the numbers are likely to be dire… Any downward revisions to prelim numbers from France, Germany, and the Eurozone will also test support levels. | Outside of the numbers, the markets also continued to monitor the latest coronavirus numbers. The Large Manufacturers Index fell from 5 to -8, with the Large Non-Manufacturers Index falling from 20 to 8. For the Aussie Dollar February manufacturing and building approval figures were in focus ahead of March’s Manufacturing PMI out of China. | 380e84cf-b631-4cf7-be43-43e972e12992 |
709127.0 | 2020-03-29 00:00:00 UTC | The Dollar Finds Support as the Latest Coronavirus Numbers Weigh on Risk Appetite | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dollar-finds-support-as-the-latest-coronavirus-numbers-weigh-on-risk-appetite-2020-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats through the Asian session to provide the markets with direction.
A lack of stats left the majors in the hands of the news wires and the latest coronavirus numbers that weighed on riskier assets.
At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 142,070. For Italy, Spain, Germany, and France, the combined number of cases stood at 280,408. The total global number of cases stood at 722,088.
The Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.55% to ¥107.35 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.45% to $0.6140, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.08% to $0.6030.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. Key stats include prelim March inflation figures for Spain and Germany and finalized Eurozone consumer confidence figures.
With the ECB having already downwardly revised inflation projections for 2020, today’s figures would need to be quite dire to influence.
We would expect the markets to also brush aside the finalized consumer confidence figures on the day.
Market sentiment towards the continued spread of the virus across the Eurozone and chatter from member states will be in focus, however.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.43% at $1.1093, with the surge in coronavirus cases weighing early on.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
A lack of stats continues to leave the Pound susceptible to a tumble as the number of new cases saw a marked increase in recent days.
Away from the updates on the coronavirus, we can also expect some movement in response to the resumption of Brexit talks.
Negotiations are due to resume today and fisheries will likely be one of the main topics of discussion. The British government has stood firm on this, suggesting some tough talk ahead that could also pressure the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.63% to $1.2381.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. February pending home sales are due out later today.
Barring particularly dire numbers we are not expecting too much influence, with March and April numbers of greater relevance. With the U.S in shutdown mode, the effect on the housing market is expected to be negative, which would be another blow for the U.S economy.
With data on the lighter side, the focus will remain on the coronavirus and chatter from Capitol Hill.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.27% to 98.631 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out later today to provide direction.
Crude oil prices and risk appetite will remain the key driver for the Loonie following last week’s BoC move.
The sharp rise in coronavirus cases has raised some doubts over whether fiscal and monetary policy moves will be enough. Governments will likely need to take more stringent containment measures that would have a more negative impact on the respective economies. It would also lead to a lengthier slump in consumption and, therefore, demand for oil and other commodities.
The Loonie was down by 0.47% at C$1.4051 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A lack of stats left the majors in the hands of the news wires and the latest coronavirus numbers that weighed on riskier assets. A lack of stats continues to leave the Pound susceptible to a tumble as the number of new cases saw a marked increase in recent days. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: USD/CAD Daily Forecast – All Eyes On Oil Market Reaction To The Production Cut Deal Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue To Show Weakness The Weekly Wrap – COVID-19 and the FED Deliver a Boost to Riskier Assets The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats include prelim March inflation figures for Spain and Germany and finalized Eurozone consumer confidence figures. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out later today to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: USD/CAD Daily Forecast – All Eyes On Oil Market Reaction To The Production Cut Deal Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue To Show Weakness The Weekly Wrap – COVID-19 and the FED Deliver a Boost to Riskier Assets The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out later today to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: USD/CAD Daily Forecast – All Eyes On Oil Market Reaction To The Production Cut Deal Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue To Show Weakness The Weekly Wrap – COVID-19 and the FED Deliver a Boost to Riskier Assets The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 142,070. At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.43% at $1.1093, with the surge in coronavirus cases weighing early on. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out later today to provide direction. | 9227be1e-ac56-4eb6-8c37-c1f5e4cefc0d |
709128.0 | 2020-03-23 00:00:00 UTC | March Private Sector PMIs out of the Eurozone, the UK and the US in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/march-private-sector-pmis-out-of-the-eurozone-the-uk-and-the-us-in-focus-2020-03-24 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busier start to the day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in focus, with prelim private sector PMI numbers for March in focus.
Outside of the numbers, updates on the coronavirus and government action, or in some cases, inaction, were the key drivers. The U.S failure to push through the Coronavirus Bill on Monday continued to weigh on the dollar going into the Asian session.
While inaction from Capitol Hill weighed on the Dollar, however, there was support for riskier assets from the FED’s latest move. On Monday, the FED pledged asset purchases without limit along with a move into corporate bonds. The FED also pledged a $300bn program to support credit flows to businesses and further credit support for large companies.
For the Japanese Yen
The prelim March Manufacturing PMI fell from 47.8 to 44.8, with the Services PMI falling from 46.8 to 32.7.
According to the March Markit Survey,
Manufacturing Sector
The manufacturing sector saw its sharpest contraction since April 2009.
Production slumped at its fastest pace since the wake of the 2011 Tsunami.
Low orders from home and abroad led to the demand for goods falling at the steepest rate in 11-years.
Employment fell in March, reversing a pickup in hiring in February.
Services Sector
It was the lowest reading for the services sector since data collection began in Sept-07.
New business intakes came to a standstill, with the spread of the coronavirus also leading to cancellations of orders.
Firms also cut headcounts, with employment falling at the sharpest pace since Oct-15.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥110.762 to ¥110.684 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.56% to ¥110.61 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.94% to $0.5893, with the Kiwi Dollar also up by 0.94% to $0.5774.
A lack of stats for the Aussie Dollar brought Markit Survey March private PMIs into focus that would normally be brushed aside.
While service sector activity took a hit in March as a result of containment measures to tackle the virus, the manufacturing sector returned to expansion.
According to prelim figures, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1, while the Services PMI slid from 48.4 to 39.8.
While that’s good news from the manufacturing sector, it’s bad news from an RBA perspective. The RBA continues to rely on consumer spending and a marked contraction in service sector activity doesn’t bode well.
In the equity markets, the ASX200 was up by 2.26%, with the Nikkei up by 4.6% in early trading. The HK and China markets had yet to open.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day on the economic calendar. March prelim private sector PMIs are due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
These will be the first meaningful March figures that will give the markets a sense of how much impact the virus has had on the Eurozone economy.
While the markets may be desensitized to a certain degree of contraction, sub-35 levels would be a shock…
Outside of the numbers, expect the latest coronavirus numbers and government plans to deliver support to also be in focus.
The PMI numbers may jolt some member states into action…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.73% at $1.0804.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. March prelim private sector PMIs are in focus this afternoon. Later in the afternoon, March CBI Industrial Trend Orders will also provide direction, though the service sector PMI will be key.
While the focus will be on the all-important Services PMI, expect any particularly dire Manufacturing PMI numbers to weigh.
The BoE delivered support last week and stands ready to do more alongside the British government should the need arise.
The BoE may wish stand pat for now, however, to assess the effects of monetary and fiscal policy support in the coming months. The reality is, however, that the BoE may need to continue being seen to deliver in order to calm the markets.
The real issue, near-term, remains the speed at which the virus continues to spread. Relative to its peers, the UK has fared relatively well. It is early days though and the UK only just invoked stricter containment measures…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.44% to $1.1593.
Across the Pond
It’s also a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. Key stats due out later today include prelim March private sector PMIs and February new home sales figures.
Expect the market focus to be on the Services PMI that will reflect the effects of the spread of the virus across the EU and the U.S.
It’s less a question of whether the private sector will contract and more about by how much.
The service sector had already contracted back in February, so avoiding sub-40 levels and figures similar to those seen in China would be a plus.
In reality, however, it’s going to be the April numbers that are likely to be particularly dire. More stringent containment measures continue to be imposed late in the month. That suggests downward revisions from prelims next week and doom and gloom for April.
We won’t expect new home sales to have a material impact this time around. March and April figures will garner plenty of interest, however. It is plausible for the housing sector to grind to halt as the government forces the closure of non-essential businesses. Prospective homebuyers will also be unable to move freely, which will further slow activity.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.46% to 102.011 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out later today to provide direction.
On the policy front, parliamentary debate and vote on a coronavirus aid package will garner plenty of attention.
Crude oil prices and market sentiment towards demand the economic outlook will continue to influence.
An OPEC collaboration with the U.S on cutting production to bring about price stability was briefly positive on Monday. The positivity didn’t last, however, leaving the Loonie on the back foot going into mid-week sessions. It remains to be seen whether there will be any agreements to curb output…
The Loonie was up by 0.23% at C$1.4460 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats due out later today include prelim March private sector PMIs and February new home sales figures. Expect the market focus to be on the Services PMI that will reflect the effects of the spread of the virus across the EU and the U.S. It’s less a question of whether the private sector will contract and more about by how much. For the Loonie It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out later today to provide direction. | According to the March Markit Survey, Manufacturing Sector The manufacturing sector saw its sharpest contraction since April 2009. Key stats due out later today include prelim March private sector PMIs and February new home sales figures. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Somehow Look Even Worse S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Quiet After Horrible Jobs Number Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Showing Signs of Resiliency The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Japanese Yen was in focus, with prelim private sector PMI numbers for March in focus. Expect the market focus to be on the Services PMI that will reflect the effects of the spread of the virus across the EU and the U.S. It’s less a question of whether the private sector will contract and more about by how much. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Somehow Look Even Worse S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Quiet After Horrible Jobs Number Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold Markets Showing Signs of Resiliency The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the March Markit Survey, Manufacturing Sector The manufacturing sector saw its sharpest contraction since April 2009. It is early days though and the UK only just invoked stricter containment measures… At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.44% to $1.1593. Expect the market focus to be on the Services PMI that will reflect the effects of the spread of the virus across the EU and the U.S. It’s less a question of whether the private sector will contract and more about by how much. | 1f2c09ef-f452-4f62-a3f1-160eb2bdea4e |
709129.0 | 2020-03-22 00:00:00 UTC | A Global Shutdown and Continued Spread of the Coronavirus to Overshadow any Stats | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-global-shutdown-and-continued-spread-of-the-coronavirus-to-overshadow-any-stats-2020-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet start to the week on the Asian economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats to provide direction through the session, leaving the coronavirus as the main area of focus.
Updates from Europe and the U.S, in particular, were negatives for the broader market going into the week.
Containment measures were strengthened in a bid to slow down the spread. Over the weekend, the number of cases in the U.S surpassed Iran, South Korea, and France, Germany, and Spain.
At the time of writing, the total number of U.S cases stood at 32,356. Figures from Europe were more alarming, however.
Italy saw the total number of cases surge to 59,138, with the total number of deaths jumping to 5,476, which was giving a mortality rate of almost 10%.
Cases in Spain and Germany rose to 28,603 and 24,842 respectively, with cases in France increasing to 16,018.
For the markets, the major concern will be the fact that Italy has been in shutdown mode for a month and continues to see large increases in new cases. This will suggest that other EU member states and the U.S will experience a similar trend.
It certainly contributed to the shutdown of nonessentials across Europe and even major U.S economic hubs such as NY.
The Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.49% to ¥110.39 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was down by 0.59% to $0.5751, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 1.33% to $0.5624.
In the equity markets, the ASX200 was down by 5.82% in early trading, with the HK and China markets yet to open.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar. The Eurozone’s flash consumer confidence figures for March are due out late in the day.
With the EU going into shutdown mode in March and the total number of deaths in Italy surpassing China, it’s not going to be good.
Any hopes of a consumer consumption-driven economic rebound have gone as non-essential businesses close in a bid to contain the virus.
For the EUR, there may be some upside, however, as the number of cases in the U.S surpasses the likes of Spain, Germany, and France.
The reality is, however, that the Dollar will likely continue to hold onto its safe-haven status. At least for now… Things could change should Asia and Europe manage to contain the virus sooner.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% at $1.0689.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
With the government enforcing greater containment measures, the Pound may find some much-needed support. While the number of cases has risen, they are still well below its neighbors. The government is optimistically expecting a short period of economic woe.
With non-essential businesses closing down to contain the virus, we would expect more fiscal measures to be rolled out. This should provide further support to the Pound in the week.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.1621.
Across the Pond
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with no material stats to provide direction.
Updates on the coronavirus and the government measures to contain the spread and support the economy will remain the key driver.
Coronavirus numbers alone from the weekend support increased demand for safe havens at the start of the week. The jump in U.S cases, however, will test the Dollar.
The markets will certainly need to get a sense of how widely the virus can spread before being able to assess the economic fallout.
For now, the market’s comfort blanket is that the U.S government and FED are willing to do anything. That is about the only good news, however, as the spread of the virus continues to gather pace. A Bipartisan vote is needed swiftly now to get funds to those that need it.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.36% to 102.447 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with January wholesale sales figures due out later today.
We would expect the Loonie to be more exposed to any weak numbers. The markets will likely fret if the bar is already at a low level ahead of any impact from the coronavirus…
Crude oil prices and market sentiment towards demand the economic outlook will likely remain the Loonie’s nemesis on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.67% at C$1.4462 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with crude oil prices back on the slide in the early hours.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the markets, the major concern will be the fact that Italy has been in shutdown mode for a month and continues to see large increases in new cases. For the Loonie It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with January wholesale sales figures due out later today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Price Daily Forecast – Yesterday’s Strength Transforms Into Upside Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Markets Surge on Saudi, Russia Production Cut News Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bearish EIA Miss Could Trigger Another Steep Plunge The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With the EU going into shutdown mode in March and the total number of deaths in Italy surpassing China, it’s not going to be good. For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Price Daily Forecast – Yesterday’s Strength Transforms Into Upside Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Markets Surge on Saudi, Russia Production Cut News Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bearish EIA Miss Could Trigger Another Steep Plunge The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. The markets will likely fret if the bar is already at a low level ahead of any impact from the coronavirus… Crude oil prices and market sentiment towards demand the economic outlook will likely remain the Loonie’s nemesis on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Price Daily Forecast – Yesterday’s Strength Transforms Into Upside Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Markets Surge on Saudi, Russia Production Cut News Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bearish EIA Miss Could Trigger Another Steep Plunge The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With the EU going into shutdown mode in March and the total number of deaths in Italy surpassing China, it’s not going to be good. This should provide further support to the Pound in the week. The Loonie was down by 0.67% at C$1.4462 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with crude oil prices back on the slide in the early hours. | a2c32a2f-45d2-4e46-b4ca-b3591de8a642 |
709130.0 | 2020-03-18 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data Gets Brushed aside as the Dollar Reminds Trump Who’s Boss | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-gets-brushed-aside-as-the-dollar-reminds-trump-whos-boss-2020-03-19 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data in focus.
While economic data got a glance, it was the market reaction to the moves in Europe and the U.S that provided direction early on.
The ECB delivered PEPP to attempt to support the markets, while the U.S government continued to hold back from shutting its borders…
For the Kiwi Dollar
Economic data was limited to 4th GDP numbers that had a relatively muted impact on the Kiwi.
The New Zealand economy grew by 0.5%, quarter-on-quarter, slowing from a revised 0.8% growth in the 3rd quarter. This was in line with forecasts.
According to NZ Stats,
Growth in services (+0.6%) delivered in the 4th quarter, while primary industries grew 0.5%.
At the industry level, growth was mixed, with 11 of the 16 industries recording increased.
Annual GDP growth for the year ended December 2019 was 2.3%, compared with 3.2% growth in the year ended December 2018.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.57324 to $0.57367 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 3.28% to $0.5552. For the Kiwi, softer growth in the 4th quarter was the last thing needed when considering what lies ahead.
For the Japanese Yen
February inflation figures were in focus ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision later this morning.
The annual rate of core inflation softened from 0.8% to 0.6% in February, according to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. Economists had forecast an annual rate of core inflation of 0.5%.
Month-on-month, consumer prices fell by 0.1% after having stalled in January.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.177 to ¥108.288 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.83% to ¥108.98 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
Employment rose by 26.7k in February, following a 13.5K rise in January. Economists had forecast a 10k rise.
According to the ABS,
The total number of people in full-time employment increased by 6,700, while people in part-time employment increased by 20,000.
Since February 2019, full-time employment increased by 144,300 people, while part-time employment increased by 111,900 people.
The employment to population ratio held steady at 62.6% in February 2020 and was up by 0.3 pts since February 2019.
The unemployment rate decreased from 5.3% to 5.1%, however, as the participation rate slipped by 1 point to 66.0%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.57736 to $0.57633 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 3.27% to $0.5584.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction.
The lack of stats leaves the markets to respond further to the ECB’s latest move to restore calm.
With the EU in shut down mode, however, the economic doom and gloom ahead doesn’t bode well. For the markets, the bigger question is how much firepower the ECB has left to react to any marked deterioration in economic conditions.
According to the latest coronavirus numbers from the EU, Italy continues to see the death toll rise, with the shutdown coming too late for many.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% at $1.0911.
For the Pound
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
We’ve seen the Pound take a beating as the markets respond to the government’s unwillingness to shut down. Baby steps are not deemed good enough and the markets are expecting Armageddon as British PM Johnson talks of a severe recession coming.
While Johnson talked of the need for a wartime government on Wednesday, the real issue is likely to be the government’s handling of the virus.
The decision to only isolate the more vulnerable to allow the virus to pass through the main population was not well-received…
On the policy front, the government’s budget and the BoE’s monetary policy response have also been modest relative to elsewhere…
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 1.00% to $1.1492. While support would tend to kick in after the latest sell-off, the markets have formed their view on what lies ahead for the UK economy.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. On the economic data front, key stats include March Philly FED Manufacturing numbers and the weekly jobless claims figures.
Expect plenty of sensitivity to the numbers, with the weekly jobless claims figures likely to garner plenty of interest.
The markets will be looking for any shift in labor market conditions. Any move in initial jobless claims towards 300k levels and expect risk aversion to hit the majors once more.
As for the Dollar, the Dollar Spot Index hits 100 levels and sees further upside as the Greenback reclaims its safe haven crown.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 101.196 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with February new house price figures due out later today.
We don’t expect the numbers to have any influence on the Loonie later today. The markets are looking for further action by the Bank of Canada in response to Wednesday’s 20% slide in crude oil prices.
With sentiment towards the economic outlook deteriorating by the day and the Saudis cranking up production, it doesn’t look good.
The Loonie was down by 0.86% at C$1.4629 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Baby steps are not deemed good enough and the markets are expecting Armageddon as British PM Johnson talks of a severe recession coming. On the economic data front, key stats include March Philly FED Manufacturing numbers and the weekly jobless claims figures. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue to be Supported U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.245, Weakens Under 98.130 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 22524 – 23571 Sets the Tone The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Japanese Yen February inflation figures were in focus ahead of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision later this morning. Since February 2019, full-time employment increased by 144,300 people, while part-time employment increased by 111,900 people. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue to be Supported U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.245, Weakens Under 98.130 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 22524 – 23571 Sets the Tone The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data in focus. The ECB delivered PEPP to attempt to support the markets, while the U.S government continued to hold back from shutting its borders… For the Kiwi Dollar Economic data was limited to 4th GDP numbers that had a relatively muted impact on the Kiwi. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue to be Supported U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.245, Weakens Under 98.130 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Reaction to 22524 – 23571 Sets the Tone The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar, Japanese Yen, and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data in focus. The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.57324 to $0.57367 upon release of the figures. For the Aussie Dollar Employment rose by 26.7k in February, following a 13.5K rise in January. | ebf57122-8878-4fe5-b40a-062d26903585 |
709131.0 | 2020-03-17 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data to Take a Back Seat Once More As Governments Step Up to Combat COVID-19 | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-to-take-a-back-seat-once-more-as-governments-step-up-to-combat-covid-19-2020 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Japanese Yen were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data in focus.
While economic data was in focus, the markets also reacted to the overnight moves in the U.S and the U.S administration’s plans to combat the impact of the virus.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Economic data was limited to 4th quarter current account figures that had a muted impact on the Kiwi.
The current account deficit narrowed from NZ$10.28bn to NZ$9.23bn, year-on-year, with the deficit narrowing from NZ$6.35bn to NZA$2.66bn quarter-on-quarter.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.59552 to $0.59598 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.02% to $0.5947.
For the Japanese Yen
The trade balance jumped from a ¥1,313.2bn deficit to a ¥1,109.8bn surplus in February, year-on-year. Economists had forecast a surplus of ¥917.2bn.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance,
Exports fell by 1%, following a 2.6% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 4.3% slide.
Exports to China fell by just 0.4%, with exports to Taiwan and Singapore surging by 11% and 13.1% respectively.
There were notable declines in exports to Europe, however, with exports to Germany and the UK sliding by 6.6% and by 7.6% respectively. Switzerland was, in fact, the only Western European trade partner to increase imports from Japan (+32.2%).
Exports to the U.S fell by 2.6%.
Imports tumbled by 14% in February, following a 3.5% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 14.4% slide.
Imports from China tumbled by 47.1%, resulting in a 24% slide in imports from Asia.
There were also notable declines in imports from the U.S (-5.9%) and Western Europe (-7.8%).
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.354 to ¥107.505 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.32% to ¥107.36 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.12% to $0.5993.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. The Eurozone’s finalized February inflation figures and January trade data are due out later this morning.
Barring a slide in consumer prices in February, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR.
We’ve seen the EU shut its borders and economic conditions deteriorate through March, pointing to a possible Eurozone recession. Any positive numbers will be of little relief, while weak numbers will have an impact when considering the likelihood of more weakness to come.
Outside of the numbers, however, expect updates from member states on fiscal policy and the spread of the virus to continue to influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.02% at $1.0995.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of the British government that has yet to take more aggressive measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.46% to $1.2111, with oversold conditions providing some early support.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. February housing starts and building approval figures are due out. With mortgage rates at record lows and confidence in the sector on the rise at the turn of the year, the February numbers are unlikely to reflect sentiment towards the coronavirus.
The focus on the day will be the Coronavirus Bill and the Senate vote. Expectations are for the Bill to pass unaltered. Any last mount hiccups could test the markets…
We will also expect updates on the spread of the virus to also influence. News hit the wires overnight that all 50 states had coronavirus cases, making it more difficult to contain the virus at the state level. An acceleration in the pace of contraction will weigh on risk appetite.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 99.475 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with February inflation figures due out later today.
We would expect softer inflation figures to weigh on the Loonie, with any pickup in inflationary pressures likely to be considered short-term.
Deflationary pressures are expected to build as crude oil prices tumble and the country goes into shutdown mode.
Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices and the Canadian government’s plans to combat the virus will remain the key area of focus. As things stand, the Bank of Canada will need to deliver more and soon, though there may be some apprehension after the market’s reaction to the FED move…
The Loonie was down by 0.24% at C$1.4236 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.250, Weakens Under 98.130
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With mortgage rates at record lows and confidence in the sector on the rise at the turn of the year, the February numbers are unlikely to reflect sentiment towards the coronavirus. Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices and the Canadian government’s plans to combat the virus will remain the key area of focus. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: The Dollar Finds Support as the Latest Coronavirus Numbers Weigh on Risk Appetite U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.250, Weakens Under 98.130 AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strong Upside Momentum Could Trigger Breakout Over .6236 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The current account deficit narrowed from NZ$10.28bn to NZ$9.23bn, year-on-year, with the deficit narrowing from NZ$6.35bn to NZA$2.66bn quarter-on-quarter. For the Loonie It’s also a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with February inflation figures due out later today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: The Dollar Finds Support as the Latest Coronavirus Numbers Weigh on Risk Appetite U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.250, Weakens Under 98.130 AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strong Upside Momentum Could Trigger Breakout Over .6236 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar and Japanese Yen were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data in focus. For the Loonie It’s also a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with February inflation figures due out later today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: The Dollar Finds Support as the Latest Coronavirus Numbers Weigh on Risk Appetite U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 99.250, Weakens Under 98.130 AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Strong Upside Momentum Could Trigger Breakout Over .6236 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar and Japanese Yen were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data in focus. Barring a slide in consumer prices in February, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. | 7a357459-62b5-4b24-a3c4-aa37873a39d0 |
709132.0 | 2020-03-16 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data Puts the EUR, GBP and US Dollar in Focus. Coronavirus News Updates Will Need Monitoring, However | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-puts-the-eur-gbp-and-us-dollar-in-focus.-coronavirus-news-updates-will-need | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy start to the week on the economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data out and monetary policy in focus.
While economic data was in focus, the markets also reacted to the overnight moves in the U.S.
A realization that neither monetary nor fiscal policy would offset the immediate impact of the virus remains evident across the global financial markets.
Later in the morning, finalized industrial production figures out of Japan would likely have a muted impact on risk appetite.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Consumer sentiment for the 1st quarter was in focus early in the session. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index slid from 109.9 to 104.2 in the 1st quarter.
According to the latest Westpac report,
Headwinds stemming from the spread of the coronavirus and drought weighed on sentiment in the 1st
The Present Conditions Index fell from 110.1 to 103.4, with the Expected Conditions Index falling from 109.8 to 104.7. Both sat below their long-run averages of 108.6 and 112.6 respectively.
Looking at the sub-indexes, consumers appeared to be concerned with the near-term economic outlook, but less concerned over its impact on personal finances.
The 1-year economic outlook sub-index slid from 4.2 to -15.4, taking it below the long-run average -2.6.
In contrast, the expected financial situation sub-index increased from 15.5 to 19.9, moving well above the long-run average of 11.3.
The ‘Good time to Buy’ Index slid from 21.1 to 8.4, however, with concerns over the near-term economic outlook likely to lead to a tightening of the purse strings.
Looking further down the track, the 5-year economic outlook sub-index remained unchanged at 9.7. It is worth noting, however, that the sub-index continued to sit well below its long-run average of 29.1.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60524 to $0.60430 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.73% to $0.6089.
For the Aussie Dollar
House prices were on the rise in the 4th quarter, with the house price index rising by 3.9%, following a 2.4% increase in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 3.9% increase.
According to the ABS,
Price rises in Sydney and Melbourne drove residential prices northwards in the 4th
Residential prices increased by 4.7% in Sydney and by 5.2% in Melbourne.
Darwin was reportedly the only city to see a fall in residential prices in the quarter.
In the year to the December quarter 2019, residential prices rose by 2.5%, with only Perth and Darwin recording declines in prices.
Monetary Policy
The RBA meeting minutes garnered a greater degree of attention, however, with the markets eager to get a sense of what’s next.
Salient points from the 3rd March Minutes included,
Economic activity in the 1st half of 2020 would be significantly affected by the global response to the coronavirus outbreak.
It was too early to tell how persistent the impact of the coronavirus would be and at what point economic activity would rebound.
The Aussie Dollar had depreciated to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Australia’s financial markets were operating effectively and the RBA would continue to ensure sufficient liquidity in the markets.
Uncertainty was likely to affect household spending and business investments as well as education, transport, and tourism.
Members noted that the combined monetary and fiscal responses would help the economy deal with the headwinds posed by COVID-19.
The Board concluded that an extended period of low interest rates would be required for Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target.
Looking ahead, the Board also agreed on the importance of monitoring rapid developments and maintaining contact to assess the implications of the virus on the economy.
The Board was also prepared to ease monetary policy further to support the economy.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61119 to $0.61154 upon release of the stats and minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.20% to $0.6129, with no major surprises in the minutes to hit the Aussie.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.81% to ¥106.69 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data includes ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone and 4th quarter Eurozone wage growth figures.
Expect the March sentiment figures to have a greater influence from the economic calendar. The March figures will reflect the impact of the coronavirus on economist and analyst sentiment towards the economic outlook.
We would expect any positive numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR, with the outlook towards the Eurozone economy dire for now.
While the ECB’s latest monetary policy move could see outflows from the EUR, the unwind of carry trades is unlikely to abate near-term. There are just too many unknowns to support a drive towards emerging market currencies at present.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.10% at $1.1172.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. January’s unemployment and wage growth figures are due out along with February claimant counts.
We’ve seen the BoE deliver monetary policy support, with more on the cards as BoE Governor Carney heads for the door.
Any spike in claimant counts and slide in wage growth would certainly be a bad combination. Negative numbers would support another move by the BoE, particularly with other central banks throwing in the kitchen sink.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.24% to $1.2241.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. February retail sales and industrial production figures are due out along with January’s JOLT’s job openings and business inventories.
Expect retail sales to have the greatest impact, with January’s JOLTs job openings unlikely to reflect the effects of the coronavirus.
When considering the retail sales figures, expect weak numbers to have a greater impact, with sales likely to plummet in March and April.
Outside of the numbers, there’s always the U.S administration there to deliver Dollar weakness…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.07% to 98.141 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases in focus.
The January numbers are unlikely to move the dial, with the coronavirus yet to have shown its teeth at the start of the year.
With the FED slashing rates to zero and spooking the markets, crude oil prices tanked on Monday. Price action added further pressure on the BoC to deliver more…
We’ve seen plenty of emergency moves, the BoC may not be in a position to wait…
The Loonie was up by 0.22% at C$1.3985 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with early support coming from a rise in crude oil prices.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Salient points from the 3rd March Minutes included, Economic activity in the 1st half of 2020 would be significantly affected by the global response to the coronavirus outbreak. The Board concluded that an extended period of low interest rates would be required for Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Ease Ahead of Inventory Data U.S. Stocks Set To Open Lower As Virus Worries Increase GBP/USD Rallies For Three Straight Sessions To Wipe Out Bulk of Last Week’s Loss The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data out and monetary policy in focus. For the Aussie Dollar House prices were on the rise in the 4th quarter, with the house price index rising by 3.9%, following a 2.4% increase in the 3rd quarter. February retail sales and industrial production figures are due out along with January’s JOLT’s job openings and business inventories. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data out and monetary policy in focus. Economic data includes ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone and 4th quarter Eurozone wage growth figures. Price action added further pressure on the BoC to deliver more… We’ve seen plenty of emergency moves, the BoC may not be in a position to wait… The Loonie was up by 0.22% at C$1.3985 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with early support coming from a rise in crude oil prices. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day, with economic data out and monetary policy in focus. The March figures will reflect the impact of the coronavirus on economist and analyst sentiment towards the economic outlook. Price action added further pressure on the BoC to deliver more… We’ve seen plenty of emergency moves, the BoC may not be in a position to wait… The Loonie was up by 0.22% at C$1.3985 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with early support coming from a rise in crude oil prices. | 60b6446a-bafd-4288-8529-83f01e19d038 |
709133.0 | 2020-03-16 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data and Monetary Policy Kick Off the Week with a Bang | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-and-monetary-policy-kick-off-the-week-with-a-bang-2020-03-16 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy start to the week on economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action by proxy through the early part of the day, with economic data out of China in focus.
The RBNZ and FOMC were also in the limelight, with press conferences to announce rate cuts ahead of the Asian open.
Out of China
Industrial production, fixed asset investment and unemployment figures for February were the key drivers.
According to figures released by NBS,
Industrial production tumbled by 13.5%, year-on-year, following a 6.9% increase in January. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.5%, reflecting how far off the markets were from pricing in the impact of the virus.
Year-to-date, industrial production also fell by 13.5%, compared with the same period in 2019. In January, industrial production had increased by 5.7% year to date compared with the same period in 2019.
China’s unemployment rate jumped from 5.2% to 6.2%, the jump coming off the back of the coronavirus shutdown in the month.
Fixed asset investments slumped by 24.5%, following a 5.4% increase in January, year-on-year. Economist had forecast a 2.8% rise.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.61278 to $0.61297 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.58% to $0.6167.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.67% to ¥106.90 against the U.S Dollar.
On the monetary policy front
The FED slashed interest rates to zero in the early hours, whilst also delivering QE5. Rates were cut by 50 basis points to a target range of 0 to 0.25%, with the FED also launching a bazooka $700bn QE program to add further support to the economy.
With the FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, it was classified as another emergency maneuver…
The EUR/USD moved from $1.1189 to $1.11752 upon the announcement.
The RBNZ joined central banks globally, delivering a 75bps emergency rate cut in the early hours of this morning. There was also the promise of an asset purchasing program in the event that more support is required. The rate cut to 0.25% is to take effect from 17th March and will remain at 0.25% for a minimum of 12-months.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.6074 to $0.61465 upon the announcement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar flat at $0.6167.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to finalized February inflation figures out of Italy.
We will expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR, however. The market focus will be on government steps to contain the spread of the virus and counter the impact on the Eurozone economy.
Last week, we saw the ECB support bank lending by offering -0.75% lending rates to banks to support businesses and consumers. While businesses will look for loans to raise the chances of survival, consumers will not be spending with member states in lockdown mode…
This doesn’t bode well for the Eurozone economy, with the unemployment rate likely to spike in response…
We can also expect the markets to also respond further to the FED rate cut to zero…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.16% at $1.1125.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Pound on the defensive as the number of cases and deaths rose over the weekend. We’ve seen capital outflows and sentiment towards monetary policy already sink the Pound. More of the same could well be on the cards as Brexit negotiations get put on ice.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.63% to $1.2355, the upside coming from the weaker Dollar.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers for March are due out.
The figures will give the markets an idea of what impact the spread of the coronavirus has had on the sector. Back in February, the Index had risen from 4.8 to 12.9.
Outside of the numbers, updates on the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S will also need considering as will chatter from the Oval Office.
Trump will be looking to push through fiscal policy measures. A number of Republicans have raised eyebrows over some of the proposals. Failure to pass proposals through will raise further doubts over a Trump 2nd term.
Earlier in the day, the FED’s rate cut to zero left the Dollar Spot Index deep in the red, with U.S Futures on the bounce.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.43% to 98.324 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.28% at C$1.3845 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with economic data out of China contributing to the downside.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Rates were cut by 50 basis points to a target range of 0 to 0.25%, with the FED also launching a bazooka $700bn QE program to add further support to the economy. Earlier in the day, the FED’s rate cut to zero left the Dollar Spot Index deep in the red, with U.S Futures on the bounce. The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day. | Out of China Industrial production, fixed asset investment and unemployment figures for February were the key drivers. Last week, we saw the ECB support bank lending by offering -0.75% lending rates to banks to support businesses and consumers. Silver Price Daily Forecast – Weak U.S. Dollar And General Optimism Help Silver Gain More Ground Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Quiet on Thursday The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | While businesses will look for loans to raise the chances of survival, consumers will not be spending with member states in lockdown mode… This doesn’t bode well for the Eurozone economy, with the unemployment rate likely to spike in response… We can also expect the markets to also respond further to the FED rate cut to zero… At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.16% at $1.1125. Earlier in the day, the FED’s rate cut to zero left the Dollar Spot Index deep in the red, with U.S Futures on the bounce. Silver Price Daily Forecast – Weak U.S. Dollar And General Optimism Help Silver Gain More Ground Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Quiet on Thursday The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Out of China Industrial production, fixed asset investment and unemployment figures for February were the key drivers. Economists had forecast an increase of 1.5%, reflecting how far off the markets were from pricing in the impact of the virus. The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.43% to 98.324 at the time of writing. | 48ca5902-c7e5-4fef-b8ad-15d7bd21a68d |
709134.0 | 2020-03-13 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data to Take a Back Seat as Market Volatility Continues to Hit the Majors | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-to-take-a-back-seat-as-market-volatility-continues-to-hit-the-majors-2020-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning.
The Kiwi Dollar was in action through the early part of the day, with Business PMI numbers in focus.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The Business PMI jumped from 49.6 to 53.2 in February. Economists had forecast a rise to 50.3.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.60976 to $0.61276 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.69% to $0.6132. The good news is that the manufacturing sector activity was buoyant in February. It may be another story in March, however…
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.32% to ¥104.98 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.96% to $0.6296.
The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar found early support in spite of the sell-off in the equity markets. Any upward trend may well be short-lived, however, as the coronavirus continues to wreak havoc.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized February inflation figures are due out of France, Germany, and Spain.
Barring a material deviation from prelim figures, the numbers are unlikely to have an impact on the EUR. We can expect the markets to have a greater interest in March numbers that will likely reflect the impact of the coronavirus.
Italy’s shut down in March and the continued spread of the virus across Europe will almost certainly hit consumption that should lead to a buildup of deflationary pressure.
Outside of the numbers, expect updates from the coronavirus to continue to support the EUR, with the spread of the virus unlikely to abate any time soon.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.25% at $1.1213.
For the Pound
It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter ahead of next week’s talks and coronavirus updates.
For the UK, containment is particularly easy and the government may need to consider closing down borders to prevent a mass spread. Such a move could give the Pound much-needed support should the spread of the virus remain moderate in the coming weeks.
For now, however, downward pressure remains as the markets price in further monetary policy easing by the BoE. Capital outflows have also hit hard as carry trades unwind.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.14% to $1.2554.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. March prelim consumer sentiment and expectation figures are due out later this afternoon.
We will expect the figures to reflect the impact of the coronavirus on consumer sentiment. A slide in consumer sentiment and it could spell more trouble for the U.S economy that relies on consumer spending.
Import and export price index figures, which are also due out, will likely have a muted impact on the Dollar.
Outside of the numbers, updates on the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S will also need consideration as the U.S prepares to block travel from Europe ex UK.
The biggest take away from Wednesday’s national address was the administration’s shortcomings. A clear inability to comprehend the gravity of the situation and failure to introduce early containment measures could be the end of Trump’s run for a 2nd term…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 97.432 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day.
Both remain negatives for the Loonie, which continues to bring C$1.40 levels into play against the Greenback…
The Loonie was down by 0.08% at C$1.3936 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A clear inability to comprehend the gravity of the situation and failure to introduce early containment measures could be the end of Trump’s run for a 2nd term… The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 97.432 at the time of writing. The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Stagnant European Equities: Private Sector PMIs to Give a Sense of the Damage EUR/GBP Bullish Continuation Targeting 0.9370 and Beyond The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Pound It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Stagnant European Equities: Private Sector PMIs to Give a Sense of the Damage EUR/GBP Bullish Continuation Targeting 0.9370 and Beyond The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Outside of the numbers, expect updates from the coronavirus to continue to support the EUR, with the spread of the virus unlikely to abate any time soon. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Stagnant European Equities: Private Sector PMIs to Give a Sense of the Damage EUR/GBP Bullish Continuation Targeting 0.9370 and Beyond The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar The Business PMI jumped from 49.6 to 53.2 in February. Outside of the numbers, expect updates from the coronavirus to continue to support the EUR, with the spread of the virus unlikely to abate any time soon. The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment on the day. | 9f782431-9de0-45b0-ad55-f4ffc57680aa |
709135.0 | 2020-03-11 00:00:00 UTC | Trump Drives Demand for the Safe Havens ahead of the ECB Monetary Policy Decision | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trump-drives-demand-for-the-safe-havens-ahead-of-the-ecb-monetary-policy-decision-2020-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action through the early part of the day.
The stats had a muted impact on the majors once more as the markets responded to Trump’s national address.
Among the U.S administration’s steps to tackle the coronavirus, delivered in Trump’s address, were:
Travel restrictions for European entering the U.S for a period of 30-days. This restriction excludes the UK. In fact, the U.S President blamed European travelers for a large number of clusters in the U.S.
Deferral of tax payments for certain individuals and businesses affected by the virus.
Proposal for paid sick leave for hourly workers.
An automatic 6-month extension for businesses and individuals to file tax returns.
An offer of federal loans to provide operating funds to affected small companies.
U.S Futures hit reverse in response to Trump’s address, driving demand for the likes of the Japanese Yen and the EUR.
For the Japanese Yen
The Business Sentiment Index for Large Manufacturing Conditions slid from -7.8 to -17.2 in the 1st quarter.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥104.474 to ¥104.602 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 1.15% to ¥103.34 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.31% to $0.6464, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.22% to $0.6255.
With the Japanese Yen on the move, the major Asian indexes were deep in the red at the time of writing. The Nikkei and ASX200 were down by 5.03% and by 5.26%.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. On the economic data front, Eurozone industrial production figures for January are due out.
Barring particularly dire numbers, we would expect the stats to have a muted impact on the EUR.
The ECB’s March monetary policy decision is the main event of the week for the EUR.
With the BoE delivering a 50 basis point emergency rate cut on Wednesday and the FED expected to deliver a 2nd rate cut next week, the pressure is on for the ECB to deliver.
ECB President Lagarde had spoken of the need for deflationary pressures to build before making a move. The rapid spread of the virus, however, and Italy’s shutdown should cause a shift in the ECB’s position.
Failure to deliver zero interest rates could spook the markets, which would also lead to a bounce in the EUR.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.42% at $1.1317, with risk aversion driving the EUR early on.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.
Following Wednesday’s emergency rate cut and the government’s budget, there should be some support for the Pound.
The market focus will now return to EU – British Brexit negotiations that are set to resume next week. Chatter from both sides of La Manche has continued to test the Pound’s resilience this week.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.2827.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.Seconomic calendar with February wholesale inflation figures due out later today.
While we can expect some Dollar sensitivity to the numbers, the focus will remain on the news wires and chatter from the Oval Office.
A continued spread of the coronavirus has forced the U.S administration into more aggressive containment measures. How far they are willing to go remains to be seen. Simply restricting Europeans from entering will not be enough with the virus already spreading across the U.S…
There is a vote scheduled later today on the coronavirus countermeasures. It could be the Democrat’s chance to really rub salt into Trump’s wounds. The handling of the coronavirus has certainly led to significant criticism of the U.S administration…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.38% to 96.139 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and risk appetite.
The Loonie was down by 0.15% at C$1.3799 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with demand for the safe havens pushing the Loonie into the red.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Among the U.S administration’s steps to tackle the coronavirus, delivered in Trump’s address, were: Travel restrictions for European entering the U.S for a period of 30-days. U.S Futures hit reverse in response to Trump’s address, driving demand for the likes of the Japanese Yen and the EUR. For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. | With the BoE delivering a 50 basis point emergency rate cut on Wednesday and the FED expected to deliver a 2nd rate cut next week, the pressure is on for the ECB to deliver. For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Demand Destruction, Rising Production Could Push WTI Prices to $15 S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets All Over The Place Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Prices Jump After Fed Pledges Unlimited Asset Purchases The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. With the BoE delivering a 50 basis point emergency rate cut on Wednesday and the FED expected to deliver a 2nd rate cut next week, the pressure is on for the ECB to deliver. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Demand Destruction, Rising Production Could Push WTI Prices to $15 S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets All Over The Place Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Prices Jump After Fed Pledges Unlimited Asset Purchases The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Among the U.S administration’s steps to tackle the coronavirus, delivered in Trump’s address, were: Travel restrictions for European entering the U.S for a period of 30-days. At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.42% at $1.1317, with risk aversion driving the EUR early on. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.2827. | e5c5268f-9cfd-421a-8cf1-51e0378e72fe |
709136.0 | 2020-03-11 00:00:00 UTC | It’s a Busy Day Ahead for the Pound, with Economic Data and the Budget in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/its-a-busy-day-ahead-for-the-pound-with-economic-data-and-the-budget-in-focus-2020-03-11 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Electronic card retail sales rose by 0.6% in February, reversing a revised 0.2% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 0.3% rise.
According to NZ Stats,
Spending on groceries and long-lasting goods including furniture, hardware, and appliances delivered the upside.
Sales of grocery food and drink jumped by 2.4%, with durables (furniture, hardware, and appliances) rising by 0.8%.
Eating and drinking at places such as cafes, restaurants, and bars fell by 0.8%.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.62668 to $0.62625 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.27% to $0.6287.
For the Aussie Dollar
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 3.8% to a 5-year low 91.9 in March. In February, the Index had jumped by 2.3% to 95.5. Economists had forecast a 0.40% decline
According to the latest Westpac Report,
Economic conditions next 12 months weighed heavily, with the sub-index sliding by 12.8%.
There were also declines in the economic conditions next 5-years (-1.3%), time to buy a major household item (-4.3%) and family finances next 12-months (-1.7%).
From the housing sector, while the time to buy a dwelling index slipped by 0.3%, the House Price Expectations Index slid by 6.6%.
Sentiment towards the labor market also deteriorated, with the Unemployment Expectations Index rising by 8.5%.
Negative sentiment towards the spread of the coronavirus and impact on the financial markets weighed heavily in the month.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65005 to $0.64904 upon release of the report. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.14% to $0.6514.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.80% to ¥104.79 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to influence the EUR.
A lack of stats will leave the markets to consider tomorrow’s ECB monetary policy decision and member state fiscal stimulus plans.
Any risk aversion over the course of the day would be considered EUR positive.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.42% at $1.1328, with the early gains coming from a pullback in the Dollar.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include January GDP and industrial and manufacturing production figures. January’s trade data that are also due out will likely have a muted impact, however.
Outside of the numbers, the government will also announce its budget, with the markets expecting a loosening of the purse strings.
Today’s stats and the budget are key for the Pound as the BoE remains poised to deliver support.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.2919, with the Dollar weakness providing early support.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with February inflation figures due out later today.
With the markets expecting a 2nd rate cut by the FED later this month, expect the Dollar to be more sensitive to softer numbers. Forecasts are for the core annual rate of inflation to hold steady at 2.3%.
Outside of the numbers, the markets will be looking for the U.S administration to make progress on delivering relief to consumers.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.29% to 96.133 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.23% at C$1.3695 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with an early pickup in crude oil prices providing support.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to NZ Stats, Spending on groceries and long-lasting goods including furniture, hardware, and appliances delivered the upside. Economists had forecast a 0.40% decline According to the latest Westpac Report, Economic conditions next 12 months weighed heavily, with the sub-index sliding by 12.8%. A lack of stats will leave the markets to consider tomorrow’s ECB monetary policy decision and member state fiscal stimulus plans. | For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 3.8% to a 5-year low 91.9 in March. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with February inflation figures due out later today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Have Rough Week Again Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Collapsed for the Week Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Have Rough Week Again The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day. The Loonie was up by 0.23% at C$1.3695 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with an early pickup in crude oil prices providing support. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Have Rough Week Again Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Collapsed for the Week Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Have Rough Week Again The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action through the early part of the day. For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 3.8% to a 5-year low 91.9 in March. Sentiment towards the labor market also deteriorated, with the Unemployment Expectations Index rising by 8.5%. | 2963301b-08a1-486f-890a-6df60e1f4150 |
709137.0 | 2020-03-09 00:00:00 UTC | The EUR and the Yen See Demand Surge as Risk Aversion Sweeps Across the Global Financial Markets | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-eur-and-the-yen-see-demand-surge-as-risk-aversion-sweeps-across-the-global-financial | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen was in action and for more reason than just the stats
Outside of the numbers, demand for riskier assets hit new heights as the markets responded to news updates on the coronavirus.
Economic data out of China from the weekend set the tone going into the Asian session. China’s trade surplus was wiped out in February, with a 17.2% slide in exports leaving China with a Dollar trade deficit of $7.09bn.
The Italian government’s decision to shut down parts of the country, ultimately quarantining 16m people was a reflection of how dire things have become. In the U.S, cases broke through the 500 mark, which suggests more pain to come.
For the Japanese Yen
GDP numbers out of Japan added to the market angst this morning. According to 2nd estimate figures for the 4th quarter, the economy contracted by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and by 7.1%, year-on-year. These were downward revisions from 1st estimates.
While the 4th quarter numbers are attributed to typhoons, a sales tax hike, and the U.S – China trade war, expectations are for 1st quarter numbers to show a more material slowdown.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥103.911 to ¥104.109 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 2.70% to ¥102.54 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 1.72% to $0.6522, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 1.53%% to $0.6253.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. January German industrial production and trade figures are due out in the early part of the day.
Expect the numbers from Germany to have a muted impact on the EUR, however, as the markets respond to the spread of the coronavirus.
Having seen the effects of the virus on the Chinese economy, expectations are dire for what lies ahead. As Italy looks to contain the spread of the virus, the bigger question is whether the U.S can take similar action…
We continue to see the Dollar suffer, which favors the EUR near-term, with Trump likely to continue to push the FED to slash rates.
Later in the European session, investor confidence figures for the Eurozone will have some influence, however…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 1.19% at $1.1418.
For the Pound
It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.
A lack of stats will leave the markets to consider monetary policy and how far the British government will go in its autumn budget.
Economic data has suggested that the BoE can stand pat this month on the policy front, while the government is expected to loosen the purse strings. Wednesday’s stats will influence the outlook on the monetary policy front.
With Brexit negotiations underway, any updates from the EU and the UK on talks will also influence. We will expect some resilience in the Pound, however.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.21% to $1.3075.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S later today.
The Dollar is under the cosh early in the day. The spread of the virus in the U.S has led to a tumble in 10-year Treasury yields. As cases exceed 500 and the number of deaths rises, there is the view that the U.S has yet to fully quantify the number of cases.
With China’s economy in the doldrums, the U.S economy may well follow, which has continued to weigh on the Greenback.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.80% to 95.183 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out later today include February housing start and January building permit numbers.
We can expect the Loonie to brush aside the numbers, however. Crude oil prices have fallen to levels last seen back in 2016, adding early pressure. WTI was down by a whopping 31.01% this morning alone…
The IEA’s monthly report due out later today is unlikely to provide too much support. Key for crude oil prices will be a Russia – OPEC agreement on output levels to restore price stability. Even Russia will struggle with sub-$30 per barrel price levels.
The Loonie was down by 1.69% at C$1.3645 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Japanese Yen was in action and for more reason than just the stats Outside of the numbers, demand for riskier assets hit new heights as the markets responded to news updates on the coronavirus. The Italian government’s decision to shut down parts of the country, ultimately quarantining 16m people was a reflection of how dire things have become. Economic data has suggested that the BoE can stand pat this month on the policy front, while the government is expected to loosen the purse strings. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Pound It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound After Hitting Fresh Lows Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Hover Over Support Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Trying to Stabilize The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Pound It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound After Hitting Fresh Lows Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Hover Over Support Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Trying to Stabilize The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to 2nd estimate figures for the 4th quarter, the economy contracted by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter and by 7.1%, year-on-year. For the Pound It’s another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. The Dollar is under the cosh early in the day. | 075bf7cc-f63c-44e7-a6dd-eb50bc87c2d0 |
709138.0 | 2020-03-02 00:00:00 UTC | The RBA Cuts Rates and Supports the Expectation of a Coordinated Global Response | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-rba-cuts-rates-and-supports-the-expectation-of-a-coordinated-global-response-2020-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action this morning.
While the stats were in focus, the RBA was also in action this morning. With talk of central banks stepping in to soften the blow of the coronavirus on the global economy, there was plenty of interest…
For the Aussie Dollar
On the economic data front, January building approvals and the current account were in focus in the early part of the session.
Building approvals slumped by 15.3% in January, following on from a 0.2% decline from December. Economists had forecast a 1% increase.
According to the ABS,
A 35.5% slide in the approval of private sector dwellings excluding houses led to the 15.3% fall.
Approvals for private sector houses increased by 0.3% in January.
Year-on-year, total dwelling approvals fell by 11.3%.
Approvals for private sector houses fell by 8.8%, with approvals for dwellings excl. houses falling by 15.2%.
In the 4th quarter, the current account surplus narrowed from an A$7.9bn surplus to an A$1.0bn surplus. Economists had forecast a surplus of A$2.3bn.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65388 to $0.65327 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA monetary policy decision and rate statement.
The RBA
Later in the morning, the RBA cut interest rates from 0.75% to 0.50%. While this was not in line with economist forecasts, chatter had built on Monday of expectations of a coordinated central bank move across the major economies to soften the blow of the coronavirus.
Salient points from the RBA Statement included:
The Board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak.
Prior to the outbreak, there were signs that the slowdown in the global economy was coming to an end.
The spread of the coronavirus has clouded the near-term outlook, which means that global growth in the 1st half of the year will be lower than had been anticipated.
Impact on the Australian economy is significant at present, particularly in the education and travel sectors.
This is also likely to affect domestic spending, which means that 1st quarter GDP numbers are likely to be noticeably weaker than forecast.
Once the virus is contained, the Australian economy is expected to return to an improving trend.
The global outbreak of the coronavirus is expected to delay progress in Australia towards full employment and the inflation target.
The Board will continue to monitor developments and is prepared to ease policy further to support the economy.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65279 to a high $0.65657 upon release of the rate statement. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.26% to $0.6554.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.37% to ¥107.93 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.18% to $0.6272.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include prelim Eurozone inflation figures for February and January’s unemployment rate.
While the stats are of interest, sentiment towards monetary policy will continue to be the key driver.
The markets are looking for a GFC style coordinated central bank response to the impact of the coronavirus on the global economy.
For the Eurozone and the EUR, there was a double boost on Monday, with chatter of fiscal policy support from Germany also anticipated. This assuming, of course, that Germany delivers and Banks don’t sit it out for another month…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% at $1.1140.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. February Construction PMI is due out this afternoon.
Forecasts are Sterling negative, which could sink the Pound to sub-$1.27 levels as talks between the EU and Britain proceed.
On the monetary policy front, the BoE may be off the hook this time around, which could give the Pound some much-needed near-term support.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.20% to $1.2779.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar.
There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Greenback with direction.
The lack of stats will leave sentiment towards monetary policy as the key driver on the day. The markets will be looking for an indication of when the FED will deliver…
On the geopolitical front, it’s also Super Tuesday, with 34% of delegates up for grabs as the Democratic leadership race heats up.
Following Biden’s South Carolina victory from the weekend and Buttigieg dropping out, there’s a lot more to play for.
Sanders, Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren will also be looking to give Bernie Sanders more to think about…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.14% to 97.493 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction.
Central bank support is anticipated this week to ease market angst. We saw the Loonie bounce back to C$1.33 levels, with crude oil prices on the rise. Easing by the BoC on Wednesday, with a dovish outlook could reverse early gains, however.
Unlike the RBA, the BoC was on a more dovish footing the last time around…
The Loonie was down by 0.01% at C$1.3329 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With talk of central banks stepping in to soften the blow of the coronavirus on the global economy, there was plenty of interest… For the Aussie Dollar On the economic data front, January building approvals and the current account were in focus in the early part of the session. While this was not in line with economist forecasts, chatter had built on Monday of expectations of a coordinated central bank move across the major economies to soften the blow of the coronavirus. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Aussie Shares Plunge More than 6%; US Equity Futures Hit ‘Limit Down’ Bear Market – Where’s the Floor? | With talk of central banks stepping in to soften the blow of the coronavirus on the global economy, there was plenty of interest… For the Aussie Dollar On the economic data front, January building approvals and the current account were in focus in the early part of the session. While this was not in line with economist forecasts, chatter had built on Monday of expectations of a coordinated central bank move across the major economies to soften the blow of the coronavirus. Key stats include prelim Eurozone inflation figures for February and January’s unemployment rate. | With talk of central banks stepping in to soften the blow of the coronavirus on the global economy, there was plenty of interest… For the Aussie Dollar On the economic data front, January building approvals and the current account were in focus in the early part of the session. While this was not in line with economist forecasts, chatter had built on Monday of expectations of a coordinated central bank move across the major economies to soften the blow of the coronavirus. Salient points from the RBA Statement included: The Board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak. | Approvals for private sector houses increased by 0.3% in January. While this was not in line with economist forecasts, chatter had built on Monday of expectations of a coordinated central bank move across the major economies to soften the blow of the coronavirus. Salient points from the RBA Statement included: The Board lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak. | 97e2cc8f-f52e-418b-88e4-158f0aeadccc |
709139.0 | 2020-03-01 00:00:00 UTC | The Dollar Takes another Hit, with Manufacturing PMIs and Central Bank Chatter in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dollar-takes-another-hit-with-manufacturing-pmis-and-central-bank-chatter-in-focus | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar were in action, with economic data out of China also in focus.
While the numbers were skewed heavily to the negative, it was “risk-on” after an initial hiccup. Central bank promise of support shifted sentiment early in the session, giving the CSI300 and Nikkei an early boost. At the time of writing, the CSI300 was up by 3.18%, the Nikkei up by 2.04%.
For the Japanese Yen
Capital spending slid by 3.5%, year-on-year, in the 4th quarter. In the 3rd quarter, capital spending had jumped by 7.1%.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.671 to ¥107.793 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.30% to ¥108.21 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
The AIG Manufacturing Index fell from 45.4 to 44.3 in February, its lowest level since a 44.2 back in June 2015. In January, the Index had fallen from 48.3 to 45.4.
According to the latest AIG Report,
It was the 4th consecutive month of contraction for the first time since 2014.
Only the food & beverage sector avoided a contraction mid-way through the quarter.
The production, sales, new orders, and export indices fell further into contraction in the month.
According to the ABS, company gross operating profits slid by 3.5% in the 4th quarter, following on from a 0.8% fall in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 2.0% increase.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64931 to $0.65085 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s Manufacturing PMI. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6527.
Out of China
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI slid from 51.1 to a record low 40.3 in February. Economists had forecast a decline to 45.5.
According to the latest survey,
There were record falls in output, new orders and employment.
Travel restrictions led to a sharp deterioration in supply chains.
Business confidence, however, rose to a 5-year high on hopes of an output recovery…
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65235 to $0.65167 upon release of the figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.24% to $0.6231. The slide comes as the markets expect the dire PMI numbers out of China to materially impact numbers out of New Zealand.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include manufacturing PMI numbers for Spain and Italy.
Finalized PMI numbers for France, Germany and the Eurozone are also in focus.
We would expect Italy, Germany, and the Eurozone’s figures to have the greatest impact. As the coronavirus spreads, a marked deterioration in manufacturing sector activity could force the ECB into action…
Outside of the numbers expect news updates on the coronavirus to also provide direction. We’ve seen the dollar continue to weaken as the market prices in a March rate cut. We could see the EUR cough up early gains, however, should the ECB also step forward.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.24% at $1.1053.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. February’s finalized Manufacturing PMI is due out this afternoon.
Expect any downward revisions to weigh on the Pound that is likely to be on the more sensitive side later today.
While the markets focus on the spread of the coronavirus and central bank chatter, geopolitics is also in focus later today.
The EU and Britain return to the negotiating table to thrash out a framework for a trade agreement that needs to be in place by June. Updates from the first day of talks will garner plenty of interest…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.2837.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar.
Key stats include the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Markit’s finalized Manufacturing PMI. Expect the ISM number to have the greatest impact.
Going into the start of the week, the bets are for a 50 basis point rate cut later this month, which hit the Dollar hard this morning.
Bets could shift should the ISM numbers paint a different picture ahead of the labor market numbers on Friday…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.20% to 97.937 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction.
While the BoC is in action on Wednesday, a jump in crude oil prices and a slide in the Greenback gave the Loonie a boost early on.
Expect risk appetite and central bank chatter to continue to influence throughout the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.43% at C$1.3350 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The EU and Britain return to the negotiating table to thrash out a framework for a trade agreement that needs to be in place by June. Going into the start of the week, the bets are for a 50 basis point rate cut later this month, which hit the Dollar hard this morning. While the BoC is in action on Wednesday, a jump in crude oil prices and a slide in the Greenback gave the Loonie a boost early on. | For the Japanese Yen Capital spending slid by 3.5%, year-on-year, in the 4th quarter. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Break Down Drastically The Weekly Wrap – A Tumultous Week that Saw the Dollar go from Zero to Hero Fed Intervened to Prevent Financial Crisis, Not to Save the Stock Market The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The slide comes as the markets expect the dire PMI numbers out of China to materially impact numbers out of New Zealand. Bets could shift should the ISM numbers paint a different picture ahead of the labor market numbers on Friday… The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.20% to 97.937 at the time of writing. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver Markets Break Down Drastically The Weekly Wrap – A Tumultous Week that Saw the Dollar go from Zero to Hero Fed Intervened to Prevent Financial Crisis, Not to Save the Stock Market The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.64931 to $0.65085 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s Manufacturing PMI. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6527. Bets could shift should the ISM numbers paint a different picture ahead of the labor market numbers on Friday… The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.20% to 97.937 at the time of writing. | 819227aa-dd82-4359-9fa4-b0f483e5d794 |
709140.0 | 2020-02-26 00:00:00 UTC | Will U.S Durable Goods Orders Give the Markets More Angst as the Number of U.S Cases Rise? | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/will-u.s-durable-goods-orders-give-the-markets-more-angst-as-the-number-of-u.s-cases-rise | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action.
For the Kiwi Dollar
New Zealand’s trade deficit narrowed from NZ$4,460m to NZ$3,870 year-on-year in January. Month-on-month, the trade balance fell from an NZ$384m surplus to an NZ$340m deficit.
According to NZ Stats,
Total exports rose by NZ$382m (8.8%) from January 2019 to hit NZ$4.7bn.
Exports to China jumped by NZ$302m (31%) to NZ$1.3bn in January, compared with January 2019.
A jump in dairy, meat, and log exports led the way.
The rise in exports to China meant that China accounted for 27% of total exports, all of which came before the extended CNY holidays and quarantines across the country.
Total imports fell by NZ$212m (4.0%) to NZ$5.1bn in January 2020.
A slide in the import of vehicles, parts, and accessories (NZ$116m) weighed on imports. Motor car imports were the main driver.
Imports from China stood at NZ$1.1bn in January 2020, which accounted for 22% of total monthly imports. On an annual basis, 20% of total imports were from China.
The New Zealand Dollar moved from $0.62898 to $0.62900 upon release of the figures that preceded January business confidence figures.
In January, the ANZ Business Confidence Index fell from -13.2 to -19.4. Economists had forecast a rise to -7.9.
According to the latest ANZ Report,
A net 12% of firms expect stronger activity ahead for their own business, falling by 5.
Agriculture sector own activity tumbled from +16 to -30, with manufacturing own activity down from +24 to +4.
Expected profitability, investment and employment intentions were all in decline.
The downward trend was attributed to the spread of the coronavirus. ANZ noted that survey responses received after the COVID-19 outbreak hit the headlines were more negative. These accounted for one-third of the total respondents.
On the bright side, the construction sector saw a rosier outlook, with retail sector pricing intentions jumping to the highest level since 2008.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.62866 to $0.62900 upon release of the numbers. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.05% to $0.6290.
For the Aussie Dollar
Private new capital expenditure slid by 2.8% in the 4th quarter, following on from a revised 0.4% decline in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.4% rise.
According to the ABS,
Building and structures saw a 5.9% slide, while new CAPEX expenditure on equipment, plant, and machinery rose by 0.8%.
In the 3rd quarter, investments in building and structures had risen by 2.5%, while expenditure on equipment, plant, and machinery had fallen by 3.6%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65511 to $0.65535 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6556.
While the Aussie Dollar was up in the early hours, the slump in new CAPEX expenditure gives the RBA further reason to cut rates. The low-interest-rate environment was not only meant to support consumers but also fuel business spending.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.16% to ¥110.25 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include prelim February inflation figures out of Spain and finalized Eurozone consumer confidence figures.
Barring a material pullback in inflation, however, we would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the EUR.
Expect any revision to Eurozone consumer confidence figures to influence, however, as the markets search for sentiment towards the spread of the coronavirus.
Outside of the numbers, expect market risk sentiment to continue to provide direction. For the EUR, early support kicked in as the markets reacted to news of a rise in new coronavirus cases in the U.S. The upward swing has come as the markets reverse bets on the U.S economy being unscathed from the spread of the virus.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.26% at $1.0909.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
While there are no stats to consider, the British Government is due to release its terms for trade negotiations with the EU.
It will all come down to how far apart the 2-sides are from the get-go and how the EU responds and Boris Johnson and David Foster react in return.
Expectations are for a difficult road ahead, which should peg the Pound back at $1.29 levels and bring $1.28 levels back into play.
On the monetary policy front, BoE MPC member Cunliffe is scheduled to speak in the early afternoon. Following Cunliffe’s concerns over the negative effects of prolonged monetary policy easing, expect any dovish chatter to weigh on the Pound.
We’ve yet to hear of central banks wanting to step in as the coronavirus continues to spread. This may well change in the coming weeks…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.2921.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. January durable goods orders and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter are due out.
Barring deviation from 1st estimate numbers, expect the core durable goods and durable goods orders to have the greatest impact.
Following last week’s particularly disappointing PMI numbers, any slide in orders will pressure the Greenback further.
Initial weekly jobless claims and pending home sales figures for January are also due out. We will also expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Dollar, however.
Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will continue to influence.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.06% to 98.939.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with key stats limited to 4th quarter current account figures out of Canada.
We can expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Loonie, however.
Focus through the day will be on the economic outlook and demand for crude oil, which remains Loonie negative.
The Loonie was down by 0.06% at C$1.3341 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Expect any revision to Eurozone consumer confidence figures to influence, however, as the markets search for sentiment towards the spread of the coronavirus. Following Cunliffe’s concerns over the negative effects of prolonged monetary policy easing, expect any dovish chatter to weigh on the Pound. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with key stats limited to 4th quarter current account figures out of Canada. | According to NZ Stats, Total exports rose by NZ$382m (8.8%) from January 2019 to hit NZ$4.7bn. Outside of the numbers, expect market risk sentiment to continue to provide direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with key stats limited to 4th quarter current account figures out of Canada. | According to NZ Stats, Total exports rose by NZ$382m (8.8%) from January 2019 to hit NZ$4.7bn. Exports to China jumped by NZ$302m (31%) to NZ$1.3bn in January, compared with January 2019. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Dollar Bulls Encouraged By Fiscal Stimulus Prospects EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Pulls Back From Highs USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Recovers Against Japanese Yen to Fill Gap The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Exports to China jumped by NZ$302m (31%) to NZ$1.3bn in January, compared with January 2019. Expect any revision to Eurozone consumer confidence figures to influence, however, as the markets search for sentiment towards the spread of the coronavirus. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. | 9ac90ff9-c051-40d9-b210-834dbf25c1bc |
709141.0 | 2020-02-25 00:00:00 UTC | Risk Aversion Likely to Linger, with Economic Data on the Lighter Side Today | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/risk-aversion-likely-to-linger-with-economic-data-on-the-lighter-side-today-2020-02-26 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action, with housing sector data in focus.
For the Aussie Dollar
Construction work done slid by 3% in the 4th quarter, following a 0.4% fall in the 3rd quarter. Economists had forecast a decline of 1%.
According to the ABS,
Total building work done fell by 4.1%, while total engineering work down fell by 1.5%
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.65979 to $0.65989 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.17% to $0.6593.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥110.21 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.14% to $0.6312.
Outside of the numbers, the markets reacted to the overnight slide in the U.S majors and news updates on the spread of the coronavirus.
The risk aversion weighed on the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar and the Asian equity markets, with the Nikkei down by 1.96% at the time of writing. The ASX200 led the way down, however, tumbling by 2.12%.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include French jobseeker figures. Barring a marked increase, the numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR, however.
Outside of the numbers, risk sentiment will continue to pressure the EUR. Economic disruption stemming from the spread of the coronavirus is expected to materially affect the Eurozone economy.
ECB President Lagarde, due to speak later today, could raise the prospects of further support. She may, however, also call on member states to deliver fiscal policy support. Such calls from the ECB have fallen on deaf ears until now.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.09% at $1.0872.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
We saw the Pound find strong support on Tuesday as EU ministers talked of a substantial, ambitious and wide-ranging partnership with the UK.
With talks scheduled to commence next week, the British government is due to release its terms of negotiations tomorrow. The markets will get an idea of just how far apart the two sides are…
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.3003.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the U.S economic calendar. January’s new home sales figures are due out later today.
With a lack of stats for the markets to consider, expect some Dollar sensitivity to today’s numbers. Mortgage rates and labor market conditions are all supportive of the housing sector. Any weakness in sales may test risk sentiment.
Ultimately, however, the Dollar will be wedged between sentiment towards monetary policy and safe-haven demand.
Last week’s private sector PMIs and the continued spread of the coronavirus has raised the probability of the FED cutting rates.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.07% to 99.035.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and crude oil prices.
A steadying of crude oil prices early in the day eased pressure on the Loonie.
The Loonie was down by 0.02% at C$1.3281 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | We saw the Pound find strong support on Tuesday as EU ministers talked of a substantial, ambitious and wide-ranging partnership with the UK. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: USD Weakness Continues with Massive Nose Dive The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers -09/03/20 Stocks in Freefall as Oil Price Crash Increases Global Recession Risks The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. | The risk aversion weighed on the Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar and the Asian equity markets, with the Nikkei down by 1.96% at the time of writing. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. | At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.17% to $0.6593. Outside of the numbers, risk sentiment will continue to pressure the EUR. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. | 9d174b25-8cf4-42dd-bb0d-a56fdc65915a |
709142.0 | 2020-02-24 00:00:00 UTC | GDP Numbers and U.S Consumer Confidence Put the EUR and USD in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/gdp-numbers-and-u.s-consumer-confidence-put-the-eur-and-usd-in-focus-2020-02-25 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with no material stats to provide direction on the day.
The lack of stats left the markets to lick its wounds following Monday’s risk aversion.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥110.8 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.18% to $0.6617, with the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.13% to $0.6348.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Germany’s 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter.
Barring deviation from 1st estimates, however, the numbers are unlikely to have too much of an impact on the EUR.
Following Monday’s sell-off, support through the early part of the day will likely continue through to the U.S session.
Any slide in U.S consumer confidence and risk aversion could return later in the day, however, which would be EUR negative.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.11% at $1.0866.
For the Pound
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
Risk sentiment will be the key driver on the day, with Brexit chatter also in focus. EU member states are due to deliver the finalized terms for trade negotiations.
Unrealistic demands would be Pound negative.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.2938.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. December house price and February consumer confidence figures are due out later today.
Expect consumer confidence figures to be the key driver. Following some disappointing private sector PMI numbers last week, weak consumer confidence figures would be another red flag.
Fears of a U.S recession had disappeared at the turn of the year. That could change should we see consumer confidence slump.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.15% to 99.214.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and crude oil prices.
A steadying of crude oil prices early in the day eased pressure on the Loonie this morning.
The Loonie was up by 0.07% at C$1.3284 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Following some disappointing private sector PMI numbers last week, weak consumer confidence figures would be another red flag. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue To Find Resistance at Same Level GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Slams Into Large Figure What’s Behind the UK’s Decision to Hold Off on a Rate Cut? | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with no material stats to provide direction on the day. For the Pound It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue To Find Resistance at Same Level GBP/USD Price Forecast – British Pound Slams Into Large Figure What’s Behind the UK’s Decision to Hold Off on a Rate Cut? | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with no material stats to provide direction on the day. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Pound It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. | Any slide in U.S consumer confidence and risk aversion could return later in the day, however, which would be EUR negative. Expect consumer confidence figures to be the key driver. The Loonie was up by 0.07% at C$1.3284 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 8271bda9-fc54-4725-bc96-ad1d9e9bc848 |
709143.0 | 2020-02-23 00:00:00 UTC | Coronavirus Updates Drive Demand for the Dollar as Riskier Assets Slide | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/coronavirus-updates-drive-demand-for-the-dollar-as-riskier-assets-slide-2020-02-24 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with 4th quarter retail sales figures in focus.
Outside of the numbers, risk aversion plagued the markets once more as news updates on the spread of the coronavirus hit the wires.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Retail sales rose by 0.7% in the 4th quarter, following a 1.7% increase in the 3rd quarter.
According to NZ Stats,
Electronics, including appliances mobile phones, and computers had the largest sales volume increase for a 3rd consecutive quarter. Sales volume rose by 4.3% following a 4.4% increase in the 3rd
9 of 15 retail industries saw higher sales volumes in the 4th
Department stores had the largest fall in sales volume, with volume down by 3.8%. In the 3rd quarter, volumes had increased by 3.8%.
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.46% to $0.6320.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.04% to ¥111.57 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar down by 0.32% to $0.6606.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index figures for February.
Following better than expected consumer confidence figures last week, any improvement would provide the EUR with much-needed support.
The stats will need to be impressive, however, to offset the early slide stemming from news updates on the coronavirus.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.23% at $1.0822.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats will leave chatter on Brexit and market risk appetite to influence.
Strong demand for the Dollar weighed early in the day as the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea continued to hit risk appetite.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.21% to $1.2937.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction for the Dollar.
Following Friday’s pullback that came in response to the PMI numbers, the Dollar was on the move early this morning.
Risk aversion continued to drive demand for the Dollar, as Korea announced that its disease alert level was hoisted to its highest level.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.29% to 99.5470.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with December wholesale sales figures due out of Canada.
While the stats will garner some interest, we don’t expect any long-lasting influence on the Loonie.
News of a further spread of the coronavirus through the weekend weighed on crude oil prices at the start of the week. Demand is expected to take a bigger hit than had been initially anticipated, which led to the early pullback, leading to the early slide in the Loonie.
The Loonie was down by 0.30% at C$1.3265 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to NZ Stats, Electronics, including appliances mobile phones, and computers had the largest sales volume increase for a 3rd consecutive quarter. Strong demand for the Dollar weighed early in the day as the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea continued to hit risk appetite. For the Loonie It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with December wholesale sales figures due out of Canada. | For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide the Pound with direction. Strong demand for the Dollar weighed early in the day as the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea continued to hit risk appetite. Across the Pond It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction for the Dollar. | Sales volume rose by 4.3% following a 4.4% increase in the 3rd 9 of 15 retail industries saw higher sales volumes in the 4th Department stores had the largest fall in sales volume, with volume down by 3.8%. Strong demand for the Dollar weighed early in the day as the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea continued to hit risk appetite. Across the Pond It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats to provide direction for the Dollar. | Outside of the numbers, risk aversion plagued the markets once more as news updates on the spread of the coronavirus hit the wires. At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.23% at $1.0822. Strong demand for the Dollar weighed early in the day as the spread of the coronavirus in South Korea continued to hit risk appetite. | 73fc7a98-1ad8-4e95-afc8-17dcd164328f |
709144.0 | 2020-02-13 00:00:00 UTC | German GDP and U.S Retail Sales are in Focus as COVID-19 Numbers Continue to Spook | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-gdp-and-u.s-retail-sales-are-in-focus-as-covid-19-numbers-continue-to-spook-2020-02 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with economic data limited to Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand.
Updates from China and the rest of the world on COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths also influenced early in the day. Numbers were on the rise as health authorities in the UK scrambled to avert a spread…
For the Kiwi Dollar
The Business PMI increased from 49.3 to 49.6 in January, falling short of a forecast of 51.0.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64398 to $0.64373 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6436.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥109.90 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.6724.
The latest updates from China on the number of COVID-19 cases and related deaths tested the majors early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data includes 1st estimate GDP numbers out of Germany and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone.
Finalized January inflation figures are also due out of Spain along with December trade data for the Eurozone.
Barring a downward revision to Eurozone GDP numbers, the focus will be on Germany’s GDP figures.
In spite of some quite disappointing numbers out of Germany of late, economists are expecting Germany to avoid a contraction.
With the spread of COVID-19 and slash in China’s growth forecasts for the 1st quarter, however, any contraction in the 4th quarter will weigh heavily.
Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will also influence as the global financial markets digest the latest updates from China.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.06 at $1.0835.
For the Pound
It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.
We saw the Pound find support on Thursday following Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid’s resignation. Expectations are for the Government to loosen the purse strings in next month’s budget. The latest cabinet reshuffle points to just that, which was considered Pound positive.
The question now will be just how far the government will go, as plenty of uncertainty lies ahead.
At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3046.
Across the Pond
It’s a busier day ahead on the data front. January retail sales figures, industrial production, and prelim February consumer sentiment figures are due out. Business inventory numbers for December are also due out.
Barring a marked jump in business inventories, however, the figures will likely have a muted impact on the day.
For the Dollar, the retail sales and consumer sentiment figures will be the key drivers.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 99.117.
For the Loonie
It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The Loonie will remain in the hands of market risk sentiment and crude oil prices.
We saw crude oil prices get a boost on Thursday, which delivered the Loonie with much-needed support. The markets will need to continue to expect that Russia and OPEC will cut production to deliver price stability.
While it is doom and gloom near-term, expectations are for crude oil demand to rebound in the 2nd quarter, however…
The Loonie was up by 0.04% at C$1.3262 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Numbers were on the rise as health authorities in the UK scrambled to avert a spread… For the Kiwi Dollar The Business PMI increased from 49.3 to 49.6 in January, falling short of a forecast of 51.0. While it is doom and gloom near-term, expectations are for crude oil demand to rebound in the 2nd quarter, however… The Loonie was up by 0.04% at C$1.3262 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Will U.S Durable Goods Orders Give the Markets More Angst as the Number of U.S Cases Rise? | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with economic data limited to Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand. Economic data includes 1st estimate GDP numbers out of Germany and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone. For the Pound It’s yet another particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with economic data limited to Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data includes 1st estimate GDP numbers out of Germany and 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone. | Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will also influence as the global financial markets digest the latest updates from China. At the time of writing, the Pound was flat at $1.3046. While it is doom and gloom near-term, expectations are for crude oil demand to rebound in the 2nd quarter, however… The Loonie was up by 0.04% at C$1.3262 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 5aa02e9d-26d4-40ce-8c69-0807b590a6f4 |
709145.0 | 2020-02-13 00:00:00 UTC | The Mid-Week Wrap Up – Coronavirus and Impact on the Major Currencies | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-mid-week-wrap-up-coronavirus-and-impact-on-the-major-currencies-2020-02-13 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
It’s been a mixed week for the global financial markets. A jump in risk appetite, off the back of coronavirus numbers from China, drove demand for riskier assets.
The EUR suffered, however, as doom and gloom shrouded the region. It was not just sentiment towards the economy, but also a rise in geopolitical risk that did the damage…
Are there any major events on theeconomic calendarthat could impact the major currencies?
The Dollar
After a quiet start to the week, it gets busier for the Greenback. Key stats include January inflation figures due out on Thursday and retail sales figures due out on Friday.
We can expect retail sales figures to have a material impact on the Dollar. During testimony to Congress, FED Chair Powell was clear that the FED would stand pat on monetary policy should economic indicators support the view that the U.S economy would likely be unscathed from the coronavirus outbreak.
On Friday, consumer sentiment figures will also need to support the positive outlook on spending.
January wage growth and nonfarm payrolls, low-interest rates and low mortgage rates should support spending near-term.
The EUR
For the EUR, the focus will be on 4th quarter GDP numbers due out of Germany on Friday. Other than a 5-month high composite PMI for January, economic data has been disappointing, to say the least.
We could see the EUR under more pressure at the end of the week should Germany’s economy contract in the 4th.
When considering the likely effects of the coronavirus on China’s economy and demand from overseas, it is going to need to be quite a stimulus package to offset weakness in the 1st quarter.
The Eurozone economy is unlikely to be as resilient as that of the U.S economy. We may even see Trump turn the screw on the EU and try to get a favorable trade agreement…
The Pound
For the Pound, we saw that the UK avoided a contraction in the 4th quarter, delivering support.
Coupled with decent employment figures and survey-based PMI numbers, the BoE looks vindicated in standing pat.
With no material stats due out through the rest of the week, however, the focus will likely return to Brexit and trade.
The good news is that the EU’s Van Der Leyen is looking for a remarkable trade agreement with Britain while mocking Johnson.
It may ultimately boil down to what strings are attached, though the British PM may prefer to go without an agreement than to be tied to the EU.
Interestingly, the EU could come under pressure should Britain make sound progress beyond the EU. The last thing that the EU needs is for Britain to be able to go it alone and not even need the EU as a partner, or at least a material one.
All in all, there are too many uncertainties near-term, however, to allow the Pound to break out from current levels.
Seems like it was a quiet beginning of the week. How have other countries performed during this period? Let’s discuss the commodity currencies.
It’s been quite a start to the week for the commodity currencies.
For the Aussie Dollar
Business and consumer sentiment figures on Tuesday and Wednesday provided much-needed support. For the RBA, rate cuts last year were to spur both business investment and consumer spending. Weak confidence across the board would certainly question whether more rate cuts would be needed.
Rain in regions devastated by bush fires led to reports that the fires are contained supporting the improved sentiment. This was also Aussie Dollar positive.
Over the remainder of the week, there are no stats to consider, leaving the Aussie in the hands of risk sentiment. News from China and beyond on the coronavirus will remain the key driver.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The RBNZ followed on from a more hawkish than anticipated RBA from last week. While holding rates unchanged, the RBNZ talked up the economic outlook for the 2nd half of the year. The RBNZ also viewed the impact of the coronavirus as short-term, aligned with the RBA.
This view may be on the assumption that Beijing will deliver a sizeable enough stimulus package to mute the effect of the virus on the economy.
On the data front, credit card retail sales disappointed ahead of the RBNZ decision on Wednesday but had a muted impact as the Kiwi surged.
Later in the week, the focus will shift to the Business PMI numbers. Following the RBNZ’s outlook on the economy, the markets make be somewhat forgiving to any weak numbers…
For the Loonie
It’s been a quiet week on the economic data front, with stats limited to housing sector figures. While upbeat, there was a limited impact, as sentiment towards the global economy and impact on crude oil prices provided direction.
With no material stats due out over the remainder of the week, the focus will remain on OPEC. OPEC slashed its demand forecasts. While this is traditionally negative for the Loonie, expectations are for OPEC and Russia to cut output to support prices.
Over the remainder of the week, the IEA monthly report and updates on the coronavirus will remain the key driver.
It was an uncertain beginning of the week for the commodity currencies. In the meanwhile, how have the Asian currencies done?
For the Japanese Yen
There has been little influence from theeconomic calendar with stats limited to current account figures that failed to move the dial.
The lack of stats left the Yen in the hands of the news wires that dictated market risk sentiment in the week.
We see the Yen set for a surge should there be a marked pickup in new coronavirus infections and increases in the mortality rate.
Last week, we had heard that the Chinese government was looking to change the narrative and shift focus away from the numbers. The better than anticipated coronavirus cases in the early part of the week may have been just that…
Elsewhere, there was an increase in the number of cases, which suggested that the virus had yet to peak.
For the Chinese Yuan
We’ve seen the bounce back to sub-CNY7 against the greenback. This came off the back of a jump in inflation and assured support from Beijing to limit the effects of the virus on the economy.
Assuming that there are no major shocks, this strengthening should continue, particularly if Beijing delivers a sizeable stimulus package.
China has returned to work and a partial tariff rollback at the end of the week will need to be met with overseas demand to make it meaningful.
On the data front, new loan figures at the end of the week will garner attention. The markets are expecting a jump that would support Beijing’s assurances of support.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | On the data front, credit card retail sales disappointed ahead of the RBNZ decision on Wednesday but had a muted impact as the Kiwi surged. Following the RBNZ’s outlook on the economy, the markets make be somewhat forgiving to any weak numbers… For the Loonie It’s been a quiet week on the economic data front, with stats limited to housing sector figures. China has returned to work and a partial tariff rollback at the end of the week will need to be met with overseas demand to make it meaningful. | For the Aussie Dollar Business and consumer sentiment figures on Tuesday and Wednesday provided much-needed support. On the data front, credit card retail sales disappointed ahead of the RBNZ decision on Wednesday but had a muted impact as the Kiwi surged. While upbeat, there was a limited impact, as sentiment towards the global economy and impact on crude oil prices provided direction. | Following the RBNZ’s outlook on the economy, the markets make be somewhat forgiving to any weak numbers… For the Loonie It’s been a quiet week on the economic data front, with stats limited to housing sector figures. With no material stats due out over the remainder of the week, the focus will remain on OPEC. The lack of stats left the Yen in the hands of the news wires that dictated market risk sentiment in the week. | We can expect retail sales figures to have a material impact on the Dollar. Following the RBNZ’s outlook on the economy, the markets make be somewhat forgiving to any weak numbers… For the Loonie It’s been a quiet week on the economic data front, with stats limited to housing sector figures. With no material stats due out over the remainder of the week, the focus will remain on OPEC. | ea387c80-6178-41af-aed0-9dadf431c45b |
709146.0 | 2020-02-12 00:00:00 UTC | Pendulum Swings in Favour of Risk as New Coronavirus Cases Appear to Slow | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/pendulum-swings-in-favour-of-risk-as-new-coronavirus-cases-appear-to-slow-2020-02-12 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
There seems to be a growing sense of optimism and hope that the worst of the coronavirus in China may have passed, amid the slowing rate of new cases. However, there remains a thick cloud of uncertainty over how badly the outbreak has impacted China, Asia and the global economy. With the death toll from the virus topping one thousand with 42,000 confirmed cases, investors are likely to remain wary and cautious despite the apparent “risk-on” mood. The positive vibe from Asian markets may support European shares this morning and potentially trickle back down to Wall Street which closed at fresh record highs overnight.
Dollar takes a breather, but bulls still remain in control
The mighty Dollar retreated from a 2020 high on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell indicated that US interest rates would be left unchanged.
Appetite for the Greenback should remain stimulated by optimism over the US economy, speculation around the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged and safe-haven demand. Powell was fairly optimistic over the outlook for the US economy in his update to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and may mirror a similar tone on Wednesday. With uncertainty over the virus still a major theme and the ramifications it may have on the global economy lingering in the air, the Dollar is likely to push higher. Focusing on the technical picture, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts with prices trading around 98.83 as of writing. A solid daily close above 99.00 should open the doors towards 99.50.
Oil sensitive to demand side concerns
Oil jumped over 1.5% on Wednesday amid early signs that new coronavirus cases were slowing in China. This development has eased concerns over the negative demand impact from the outbreak in the world’s largest energy consumer. However, Oil markets are certainly not out of the woods yet with further downside on the cards if economic growth in China ends up decelerating in Q1. On the supply side of the equation, OPEC+ recommended a further cut of 600,000 bpd last week in an effort to limit the painful decline in Oil prices, but Russia has been reluctant to commit to deeper cuts. We suspect the next few months are going to be volatile for Oil, with the path of least resistance pointing south.
While WTI Crude could rebound towards $52 and beyond in the short to medium term, the resistance around $54 may put an end to the bull’s party. A breakdown back below $50 should open the doors towards $48.
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This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The positive vibe from Asian markets may support European shares this morning and potentially trickle back down to Wall Street which closed at fresh record highs overnight. Appetite for the Greenback should remain stimulated by optimism over the US economy, speculation around the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged and safe-haven demand. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same. | Appetite for the Greenback should remain stimulated by optimism over the US economy, speculation around the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged and safe-haven demand. Oil sensitive to demand side concerns Oil jumped over 1.5% on Wednesday amid early signs that new coronavirus cases were slowing in China. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop as Exports are Expected to Decline Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue To Show Massive Strength Not all Safe Havens Equal Amid Coronavirus Outbreak The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Dollar takes a breather, but bulls still remain in control The mighty Dollar retreated from a 2020 high on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell indicated that US interest rates would be left unchanged. Oil sensitive to demand side concerns Oil jumped over 1.5% on Wednesday amid early signs that new coronavirus cases were slowing in China. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Drop as Exports are Expected to Decline Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Continue To Show Massive Strength Not all Safe Havens Equal Amid Coronavirus Outbreak The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | However, there remains a thick cloud of uncertainty over how badly the outbreak has impacted China, Asia and the global economy. A solid daily close above 99.00 should open the doors towards 99.50. Oil sensitive to demand side concerns Oil jumped over 1.5% on Wednesday amid early signs that new coronavirus cases were slowing in China. | 1c537e52-c8ea-42e2-b61c-f9535f817792 |
709147.0 | 2020-02-11 00:00:00 UTC | The RBNZ Gives the Kiwi a Boost ahead as the Focus Shifts to the EUR and USD | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-rbnz-gives-the-kiwi-a-boost-ahead-as-the-focus-shifts-to-the-eur-and-usd-2020-02-12 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar and the Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
Key stats included the electronic credit card retail sales figures out of New Zealand and consumer confidence figures out of Australia,
On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ was also in action, delivering its first monetary policy decision of the year.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Electronic card retail sales fell by 0.1% in January, following on from a 0.9% decline in December. Economists had forecast a 1% rise.
According to NZ Stats,
Spending on hospitality saw the largest decline in January, falling by 1%.
Groceries and liquor recorded a 0.3% decline, while spending on apparel and vehicles (excl. fuel) remained largely unchanged.
Spending on fuel increased by 1.5%.
Core retail spending fell by 0.2%, following a 1.0% decline in December.
The total value of electronic card spending, including the two non-retail categories (services and non-retail), rose by 0.3%. In December, spending had fallen by 0.6%.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64020 to $0.64017 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBNZ policy decision and press conference.
Monetary Policy
The RBNZ held rates unchanged at 1% this morning, which was in line with expectations. Salient points from the Rate Statement included:
Employment is at or slightly above its maximum sustainable level, while inflation is close to the 2% mid-point of the target range.
Low-interest rates remain necessary to maintain current employment and inflation levels.
Economic growth is expected to accelerate in the 2nd half of 2020, supported by both monetary and fiscal stimulus and favorable trade terms.
The outlook for government spending is positive as is the outlook for household spending growth.
Soft momentum in economic growth continued into 2020, with softer global growth in 2019 acting as a headwind to the domestic economy.
The global economy has shown signs of stabilizing, with trade tensions easing, while the coronavirus outbreak remains a downside risk.
The RBNZ assumes that any impact of the coronavirus to the NZ economy will be short-term and within the 1st half of 2020.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64118 to $0.64580 upon release of the rate statement and monetary policy statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.87% to $0.6462.
Next up is the RBNZ Press Conference…
For the Aussie Dollar
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index jumped by 2.3% to 95.5 in February. In January, the index had fallen by 1.8% to 93.4. Economists had forecast a more modest 1.4% rise.
According to the latest Westpac Report,
The rise was attributed to easing concerns over the bushfires and a more optimistic RBA…
The spread of the coronavirus had a limited impact on sentiment, which was reportedly the case back during the SARS outbreak in 2003.
Looking at the components, contribution came from consumer sentiment towards the economic outlook.
Economic conditions the next 12-months increased by 5.4% to 89.3. This was still down by 13.3% over the year and well below the long-run average of 90.9.
Economic conditions next 5-years rose by 4.3% to 91.6. Whilst down by 8.5% from the previous year, the sub-index rose above the long-run average of 91.3.
Supported by the better sentiment towards the economic outlook, the time to buy a major household item sub-index rose by 2.7% to 116.4. While down by just 1.9% over the year, the sub-index sat well below a long-run average of 127.1.
The numbers were less impressive on the finance front, however.
Family finances vs a year ago fell by 1.0% to 81.2. Down by 9.2% over the year, the sub-index was well-below a long-run average 89.3.
The family finances the next 12-months rose by just 0.1% to 99.1.
The Unemployment Expectations Index increased by 0.6% to 134.7. Up by 12.3% over the year, the Index sat above a long-run average of 130.1, which is negative.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67173 to $0.67202 upon release of the stats. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.19% to $0.6727.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.84 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar Industrial production figures are due out of the Eurozone later today.
Following some particularly disappointing production numbers out of France, Germany, and Italy, today’s figure will need to be particularly dire to move the dial.
Expectations are for production to fall by 1.5% in December, so expect the EUR to soften on any weaker numbers.
Outside of the stats, geopolitical risk is on the rise once more. Tensions return in Italy, with the Irish election result also raising some uncertainty. Things are not much better in Germany, as Merkel’s CDU Party sees Merkel’s chosen successor resign.
Expect chatter from Italy and Germany to garner plenty of attention. The last thing the EU needs is discord as it prepares to negotiate with Britain on trade.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.0918.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction.
Economic data from the UK on Tuesday appeared to vindicate MPC members who decided to vote in favor of a hold on interest rates.
The UK managed to avoid an economic contraction, in spite of soft manufacturing and industrial production at the end of the year.
Hopes are that Johnson’s landslide victory will deliver a near-term boost to growth ahead of next month’s budget.
Whether the Pound can hold onto $1.29 levels and eye a return to $1.30 levels remains to be seen, however.
Much will depend on how the government progresses with key trading partners on trade talks.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.07% to $1.2961.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front, with no material stats due out later today to provide the Greenback with direction.
The lack of stats will leave FED Chair Powell and his 2nd day of testimony in focus.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 98.765.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
Crude oil prices will influence on the day, with OPEC’s monthly report and the weekly IEA numbers due out later today.
The Loonie was up by 0.01% at C$1.3285 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Salient points from the Rate Statement included: Employment is at or slightly above its maximum sustainable level, while inflation is close to the 2% mid-point of the target range. Economic data from the UK on Tuesday appeared to vindicate MPC members who decided to vote in favor of a hold on interest rates. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Asian Markets: South Korea Plunges More than 3%; Airlines, Smartphone Industry at Risk E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Next Downside Target Zone 9344.25 to 9245.50 Natural Gas (NG) Futures Technical Analysis – Weakens Under $1.926, Strengthens Over $1.949 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included the electronic credit card retail sales figures out of New Zealand and consumer confidence figures out of Australia, On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ was also in action, delivering its first monetary policy decision of the year. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar Industrial production figures are due out of the Eurozone later today. For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. | Key stats included the electronic credit card retail sales figures out of New Zealand and consumer confidence figures out of Australia, On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ was also in action, delivering its first monetary policy decision of the year. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar Industrial production figures are due out of the Eurozone later today. For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar with no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction. | Economic growth is expected to accelerate in the 2nd half of 2020, supported by both monetary and fiscal stimulus and favorable trade terms. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on theeconomic calendar Industrial production figures are due out of the Eurozone later today. Whether the Pound can hold onto $1.29 levels and eye a return to $1.30 levels remains to be seen, however. | 1825adcb-57dd-45de-baf4-dbfad7684f0b |
709148.0 | 2020-02-10 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data and FED Chair Powell Put the GBP and USD in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-and-fed-chair-powell-put-the-gbp-and-usd-in-the-spotlight-2020-02-11 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The British Pound and the Aussie Dollar were in action early on.
Key stats included the UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor figures for January and January business confidence numbers out of Australia.
Outside of the numbers, news of the coronavirus death toll hitting 1,011 on Monday left the markets wary.
China returning to work after the extended break provided some support to riskier assets early on, however.
For the Aussie Dollar
The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from -2 to -1 in January. Economists had forecast a rise to 0.
According to the NAB,
While there was some evidence of the effects of the bushfire, the Business Sentiment Index held relatively steady.
The Business Conditions Index held steady at +3, with profitability rising from +1 to +2, while the Employment Index fell from +4 to +1.
Sentiment towards forward orders remained weak, with the sub-index holding steady at -1.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.66856 to $0.66916 upon release of the stats. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.24% to $0.6703.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥109.84 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.05% to $0.6387.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction.
A lack of stats will continue to leave the EUR in the hands of market sentiment towards the Eurozone economy and geopolitical risk.
We saw the EUR take a hit on Monday as the continued spread of the virus led to further delays in the opening of factories in China.
On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is due to speak later today. Expect any dovish chatter to add further pressure on the EUR.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.0914.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include 4th quarter GDP numbers and December industrial and manufacturing production figures.
Following some disappointing numbers of late, forecasts for today’s stats are also skewed to the negative.
We will expect December’s trade figures to have a muted impact on the Pound.
Earlier in the day, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor stalled in January after having risen by 1.7% in December.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.2920, the upside coming in spite of the soft retail sales figures.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the data front. December’s JOLT’s job openings are due out later today.
Following last week’s nonfarm payroll figures for January, we would expect the numbers to have a muted impact, however.
The focus on the day will be on FED Chair Powell’s first day of testimony to Congress. Economic data out of the U.S has supported the Dollar of late. It will be interesting to see whether the FED Chair expects any material fallout from the coronavirus. There’s also inflation to consider.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 98.855.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and influence on crude oil prices.
With the Loonie back at C$1.33 levels against the Greenback, there could be some near-term support should OPEC and Russia agree to a material cutback in production.
There’s been no sign of such a move yet, however…
The Loonie was up by 0.05% at C$1.3310 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite and influence on crude oil prices. With the Loonie back at C$1.33 levels against the Greenback, there could be some near-term support should OPEC and Russia agree to a material cutback in production. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 21, 2020 GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Sterling Recovers on Positive UK PMI Report Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Threat of Global Recession Driving Prices Higher The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included the UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor figures for January and January business confidence numbers out of Australia. For the Aussie Dollar The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from -2 to -1 in January. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction. | Key stats included the UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor figures for January and January business confidence numbers out of Australia. Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.06% to ¥109.84 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.05% to $0.6387. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s yet another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction. | We will expect December’s trade figures to have a muted impact on the Pound. Economic data out of the U.S has supported the Dollar of late. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction. | 21ecdd03-d6ff-4ece-9af5-5d409321b81c |
709149.0 | 2020-02-09 00:00:00 UTC | A Quiet Day on the Economic Calendar Leaves the Coronavirus in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-quiet-day-on-the-economic-calendar-leaves-the-coronavirus-in-focus-2020-02-10 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Japanese Yen and the Aussie Dollar, by proxy, were in action early on.
Outside of the numbers, the doom and gloom economic forecasts for China that hit the news wires on Friday limited any major moves. The spread of the coronavirus continued through the weekend, with the death toll moving towards 1,000.
For the Japanese Yen
The current account surplus, non-seasonally adjusted, narrowed from ¥1.437tn to ¥0.524tn in December. Economists had forecast a surplus of ¥0.417tn.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.659 to ¥109.656 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.04% to ¥109.79 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
Inflation figures for January were in focus.
Consumer prices rose by 0.1% in January, month-on-month, leading an acceleration in the annual rate of inflation from 4.5% to 5.4%. Economists had forecast an annual rate of inflation of 4.9%.
The annual rate of wholesale inflation hit 0.1%, bouncing back from an annual rate of deflation of 0.5% in December.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.66782 to $0.66885 upon release of the stats. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.25% to $0.6690, supported by the solid inflation figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.14% to $0.6409.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction.
A lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of market sentiment towards the Eurozone economy and geopolitical risk.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.0950.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter, which will likely remain negative.
News of trade talks and positive updates with other key trading partners could provide some near-term support, however.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.01% to $1.2893.
Across the Pond
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the data front.
There are no material stats due out to provide the Greenback with direction at the start of the week.
Expect any chatter from the Oval Office to influence, however. Trump will be looking to make further progress on foreign policy following his acquittal last week.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 98.657.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include January housing start and December building permit figures.
The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Loonie, however.
Dire economic growth forecasts for China will need OPEC to pull back on production. Failure to deliver could see crude oil prices and the Loonie under more pressure in the week ahead…
The Loonie was up by 0.01% at C$1.3306 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, the doom and gloom economic forecasts for China that hit the news wires on Friday limited any major moves. A lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of market sentiment towards the Eurozone economy and geopolitical risk. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Volatility Expected After Fed Minutes Crude Oil Price Update – Short-Term Trend is Up, but Buyers Treading Lightly Gold Price Prediction – Gold in Euros Hit All-time Highs as Prices Continue to Rally The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The annual rate of wholesale inflation hit 0.1%, bouncing back from an annual rate of deflation of 0.5% in December. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. Failure to deliver could see crude oil prices and the Loonie under more pressure in the week ahead… The Loonie was up by 0.01% at C$1.3306 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.659 to ¥109.656 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.25% to $0.6690, supported by the solid inflation figures. Failure to deliver could see crude oil prices and the Loonie under more pressure in the week ahead… The Loonie was up by 0.01% at C$1.3306 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 5928928d-8289-4f3a-b1d6-433c0a35bd8b |
709150.0 | 2020-02-06 00:00:00 UTC | Markets Are Not Only Holding Up, But They’re Going Up!! | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/markets-are-not-only-holding-up-but-theyre-going-up-2020-02-06 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
In breaking news and of little surprise to anyone, the US senate has acquitted President Trump on impeachment change, but the markets don’t care.
The markets are not only holding up, but they’re going up!!! And to suggest risk appetite continues to “creep” back in favor, might be the biggest understatement of the week as equity markets just burst higher.
It was another positive day in US equities Wednesday, S&P up a little over 1% heading towards the close, and again with European stocks up a similar amount. US treasury yields have lifted another 5bps to 1.65%. China’s Shanghai composite raised 1.1%. Most notably, the oil market – previously more reluctant than others to shrug off coronavirus concerns – saw prices lift 2.3%. Sentiment had been supported by reports in Chinese media that a cure for the coronavirus might soon be developed. That news was later played down by the WHO.
But any progress on treatment may also be a comfort to investors that the longer-term secondary effects of the outbreak are contained.
Time to focus on the data
Data has been of secondary importance to markets recently, but as non-farm payroll approaches, perhaps that will change.
Last night’s US ADP employment report was stronger than expected, rising 291,000 in January, supported by a “significant boost” from mild winter weather and is the strongest since May 2015.
While the non-manufacturing ISM also beat expectations, with the headline outcome the best since August and suggests the underlying trend in US growth had been excellent at least before worries about the impact of coronavirus began to set.
But it’s the super-strong US January ADP print serves as a sturdy reminder that as much as the coronavirus is impacting the real economies in Asia, the US is relatively insulated.
Oil Markets
Oil markets have been in the spotlight hit by concerns over a slowdown in demand from the coronavirus. While discussion over whether OPEC make further production, cuts have provided support to prices
OPEC + emergency meeting
Oil markets are rebounding from the 5-day slide as investors turn optimistic that OPEC+ officials will deliver an appropriate response to alleviate current concerns stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ hard for cuts of at least 500kb/d, with some reports suggesting a reduction of double that level is also being considered. Most of OPEC seems to be on board, but there are conflicting reports in the press about Russian support for additional cuts. But we’ve seen this all before, and at this time, there is little reason for the market to suspect Russia will break from the usual pattern of flip-flopping until the last minute but ultimately agreeing to cut.
However, markets are trading well off the intraday highs as more oil price downgrades are expected to come down the pipe due to ruinous demand effect the virus is having on Chinese consumption. As such, for a more exaggerated positive price extension to happen, and to make a more significant dent in this year’s eye-catching 20 % price decline, a deeper than consensus OPEC + production cut would likely be needed as a 500kb/d my just paper of the cracks amid the markets broader appetite to run with the bearish interpretation of the coronavirus knock-on demand effects.
In the unlikely event that Russia doesn’t play ball, the recovering sentiment would take a wicked U-turn.
US DOE inventory report
Crude inventory build above consensus but below API, 5-year average
Crude stocks rose by 3.4Mb, bearish vs. consensus for a 2.8Mb build, but bullish vs. the 4.2Mb draw reported by the API yesterday and the 5-year average of +6.2Mb. However, the key for the sentiment was the build was similar in magnitude to last weeks with underlying drivers little changed.
US economic data
While the main event of the week will be the US employment report (Friday), oil investors took solace in a Super-strong US January ADP Employment. The robust jobs data not only suggests that US consumer consumption will remain sturdy in the is the world’s biggest oil consumer, but most importantly, the US market has been relatively insulated from the coronavirus impact.
Gold markets
Gold is showing its resilience after the latest sell-off despite robust jobs data, and as equity and USD rallies; may remain supported as other risks resurface, and the full economic impact of the virus is realized in the next series of ASEAN data releases.
Supported yes but cause to put on the rally caps? NO
The USD gained further on the release of the ADP national jobs report, which showed that US private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs in January, its highest rate since May 2015. Gold demand sucked up this news even as the US equity markets soared to record highs. A positive for gold was the 4% jump in oil prices, which is stoking reflationary concerns.
More detriment to the gold price outlook has been the latest round of Fed speak, and as the Fed’s more optimistic view than the current “Wall street” outlook continues to get confirmed by robust US economic data.
While there was a slight dovish tilt to the Fed meeting last week, it’s not been backed up by speakers since. Both Bostic and Clarida have expressed some reluctance to cut rates further in recent sessions. While Mary Daly, in a CNBC interview, says that she doesn’t see a material impact from the coronavirus in the US. This is consistent with the January sentiment survey releases as well as the relatively limited amount of coronavirus cases in the US. All of which confirms the market’s current lean that the coronavirus will leave a relatively small footprint globally. So, assuming implications from the Coronavirus shock prove temporary, the Fed’s steady rates narrative should hold, which is supportive but not necessarily bullish for gold.
Gold remains precariously perched several dollars above the $1550 level heading into tomorrow, possibly make or break day for near term sentiment with the critical US jobs report on tap. And given the list of risk on inferences, the skew could remain lower as investors jockey for position ahead of tomorrow data.
G-10 FX
The EUR weakened against the USD. ECB economist Philip Lane said inflation looks set to move back towards target. In an interview with the Financial Times, he made the case that wage growth and a tightening labor market would push inflation up. E
The USD gained further on the release of the ADP national jobs report, which showed that US private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs in January, its highest rate since May 2015. And with US equities bursting higher, US exceptionalism comes back to the fore
GBPUSD went sharply lower overnight after a Bloomberg headline indicating the EU has aimed at the City of London with a post-Brexit MIFID rewrite. As the prospect of regulatory gridlock continues to weigh on financial centers
Asia FX (The Ringgit)
Robust US economic data lessens the likely hood of a Fed cut and supporting the Greenback, which is harmful to ASIA FX.
None the fewer markets continue to work in non-parallel universes.
While Asia economists continue to discuss the gloom ridden impact the virus will have on China GDP, global equity markets do precisely what they have done for the last year. Which is shrug, ignore the fundamentals while investors race to put money to work.
But it’s a bit different back here at home( South East Asia), While it’s hard to ignore that that global risk markets are starting to prices in peak virus fear, however, economies and their currencies and stock markets with keen trade linkages into China like Malaysia ( Ringgit & KLCI) may continue to struggle through the early part of the year as the doomy knock-on effect from the China economic slow down hit home.
Short term pain for long term gain??
The Ringgit should more than makeup for lost ground when China’s pent up demand post virus economic recovery kicks in. So I don’t think we will have a repeat of August 2019 when the Ringgit weakened above 4.20, but I think its too soon in the game to say the Ringgit it out of the wood just yet as we should expect a reality check to set in when the end of month economic data rolls in which should capture the local effects the virus has had on export. Circle February 21, as the critical global bellwether South Korea, 20-day export data is released.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | While the non-manufacturing ISM also beat expectations, with the headline outcome the best since August and suggests the underlying trend in US growth had been excellent at least before worries about the impact of coronavirus began to set. Gold remains precariously perched several dollars above the $1550 level heading into tomorrow, possibly make or break day for near term sentiment with the critical US jobs report on tap. And with US equities bursting higher, US exceptionalism comes back to the fore GBPUSD went sharply lower overnight after a Bloomberg headline indicating the EU has aimed at the City of London with a post-Brexit MIFID rewrite. | NO The USD gained further on the release of the ADP national jobs report, which showed that US private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs in January, its highest rate since May 2015. E The USD gained further on the release of the ADP national jobs report, which showed that US private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs in January, its highest rate since May 2015. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Showing Signs Of Life Again Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue To Rebound European Equities: The Economic Calendar and COVID-19 Updates to Influence The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | While discussion over whether OPEC make further production, cuts have provided support to prices OPEC + emergency meeting Oil markets are rebounding from the 5-day slide as investors turn optimistic that OPEC+ officials will deliver an appropriate response to alleviate current concerns stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. Gold markets Gold is showing its resilience after the latest sell-off despite robust jobs data, and as equity and USD rallies; may remain supported as other risks resurface, and the full economic impact of the virus is realized in the next series of ASEAN data releases. But it’s a bit different back here at home( South East Asia), While it’s hard to ignore that that global risk markets are starting to prices in peak virus fear, however, economies and their currencies and stock markets with keen trade linkages into China like Malaysia ( Ringgit & KLCI) may continue to struggle through the early part of the year as the doomy knock-on effect from the China economic slow down hit home. | Most notably, the oil market – previously more reluctant than others to shrug off coronavirus concerns – saw prices lift 2.3%. Gold markets Gold is showing its resilience after the latest sell-off despite robust jobs data, and as equity and USD rallies; may remain supported as other risks resurface, and the full economic impact of the virus is realized in the next series of ASEAN data releases. More detriment to the gold price outlook has been the latest round of Fed speak, and as the Fed’s more optimistic view than the current “Wall street” outlook continues to get confirmed by robust US economic data. | c85191bc-4d34-446f-b839-e126a1bb2896 |
709151.0 | 2020-01-27 00:00:00 UTC | Crude Oil as the Weakest Link in China’s Coronavirus Panic | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crude-oil-as-the-weakest-link-in-chinas-coronavirus-panic-2020-01-27 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Chinese exchanges stayed closed from Thursday due to the Lunar New Year, but other Asian and European markets are showing the full extent of fear of the new disease.
Japanese Nikkei225 is declining by more than 1.2% since the start of trading on Monday. Futures on Euro50 lose the same amount at the beginning of trading, returning to drop after the break on Friday.
However, Oil shows the most prominent price dynamics. Brent declined to $58.50, its lowest level since October last year. Although formally there is a logic behind the Crude’s decline, this situation is mostly because that Oil was the weakest link in the chain.
News about the spread of the Chinese сoronavirus has been pressing on Brent all last week, causing prices to decline by more than $6.5 or 10%. Apparently, the coronavirus story made investors take a critical look at the assets after the rally of previous months. Crude Oil showed weakness not only because of the coronavirus.
It was indicative of how quickly it returned to decline at the beginning of the month after the ease of tension between Iran and the US. As is often the case in markets, strong movements are rarely caused by just one reason. In our case, it is worth paying attention to the growth of production in the US to a record 13 million barrels per day combined with high reserves. This situation brings investors back to fears that the cuts from OPEC+ agreed at the end of 2019 may not be enough to rebalance supply and demand in the markets.
Recently, the cartel indicated that the market will still have an excess of about 1mln BPD in the first half of the year. This market move is a clear indication that OPEC+ may be required to make another attempt to rebalance the market.
OPEC globally expects that consumption growth will start to accelerate after signing Phase 1 of the China-US trade agreement. However, one should remember that the growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2019 was the lowest in more than 20 years. Also, the IMF has recently reduced its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 due to lower expectations from India.
China and India are the second and third world economies, respectively. However, they are developing economies, i.e. their oil consumption is not as optimized as in Europe and Japan. Lower growth forecasts in these countries are much more worrying for the global energy market than, say, the slowing down of the US and Europe.
This logic makes us think that oil quotations are still in the search of the bottom. We cannot rule out that it will be found at levels markedly below $50 per barrel of Brent.
This article was written by FxPro
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - Chinese exchanges stayed closed from Thursday due to the Lunar New Year, but other Asian and European markets are showing the full extent of fear of the new disease. In our case, it is worth paying attention to the growth of production in the US to a record 13 million barrels per day combined with high reserves. This article was written by FxPro This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – RBA May Be Forced to Cut Rates Despite Contrary Polls USD/CNY Price Forecast – Bull Signal for Pair as Chinese Yuan Hit Hard US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Rebound Led by Nasdaq; Tesla Continues to Surge The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Crude Oil showed weakness not only because of the coronavirus. OPEC globally expects that consumption growth will start to accelerate after signing Phase 1 of the China-US trade agreement. Also, the IMF has recently reduced its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 due to lower expectations from India. | FXEmpire.com - Chinese exchanges stayed closed from Thursday due to the Lunar New Year, but other Asian and European markets are showing the full extent of fear of the new disease. Lower growth forecasts in these countries are much more worrying for the global energy market than, say, the slowing down of the US and Europe. This article was written by FxPro This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – RBA May Be Forced to Cut Rates Despite Contrary Polls USD/CNY Price Forecast – Bull Signal for Pair as Chinese Yuan Hit Hard US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Rebound Led by Nasdaq; Tesla Continues to Surge The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Crude Oil showed weakness not only because of the coronavirus. However, one should remember that the growth rate of the Chinese economy in 2019 was the lowest in more than 20 years. Also, the IMF has recently reduced its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 due to lower expectations from India. | b85b6b59-ce31-4dad-a0c4-6d772f6a1379 |
709152.0 | 2020-01-26 00:00:00 UTC | Riskier Assets Sink as the Coronavirus Goes Global | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/riskier-assets-sink-as-the-coronavirus-goes-global-2020-01-27 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. There were no material stats due out, with holidays in China and Australia leaving volumes on the lighter side.
A lack of stats left the markets in the hands of the news wires, as updates on the coronavirus hit market risk appetite. Riskier assets hit reverse early, as the spread of the virus could ultimately impact the Chinese economy and beyond.
On the geopolitical front, concerns over U.S tariffs on EU goods and autos, in particular, were also market risk negative.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.43% to ¥108.81 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.38% to $0.6806. The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.36% to $0.6583.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include IFO business Climate Index figures due out of Germany.
Following better than expected PMI numbers out of Germany last week, today’s Business Climate Figures will need to support. Optimism across the private sector hit a 16-month high in January, according to the prelim PMI.
Outside of the numbers, however, risk aversion over the coronavirus could pin back the EUR, as would any further chatter from the U.S on EU trade tariffs…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1028, with early support coming as the Asian markets responded to last week’s PMIs.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
Based on last week’s numbers alone, the Pound should find a further upside, though chatter from the EU on trade will likely influence.
The EU is not expected to be in too much of a hurry in reaching a trade agreement with the UK. Johnson will need to keep the focus on the EU and other trading partners to support a positive outlook post-transition.
It’s Britain’s last week as a member of the EU. After more than three-and-a-half-years of political chaos, the wait is over…
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.3064.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day on the data front, with economic data limited to December new home sales figures from the U.S.
Barring dire numbers, the figures are unlikely to have a material impact on the day.
Outside of the numbers, expect updates on the coronavirus and the Oval Office to also influence. A further spread of the virus would further raise demand for the safe havens.
In the early part of this week, a further spread of the virus could force the World Health Organization’s hand in revising its view of the virus…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 97.832 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of risk appetite on the day. The effect of the coronavirus on the Chinese economy and demand would be negative for crude oil prices and riskier assets in general.
The Loonie was down by 0.13% at C$1.3160 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | In the early part of this week, a further spread of the virus could force the World Health Organization’s hand in revising its view of the virus… The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 97.832 at the time of writing. The effect of the coronavirus on the Chinese economy and demand would be negative for crude oil prices and riskier assets in general. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Crude Falls Below $51 as Chinese Markets Slide Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Demand for Risk Weighing on Prices The UK After Brexit The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Riskier assets hit reverse early, as the spread of the virus could ultimately impact the Chinese economy and beyond. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada. | Outside of the numbers, however, risk aversion over the coronavirus could pin back the EUR, as would any further chatter from the U.S on EU trade tariffs… At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1028, with early support coming as the Asian markets responded to last week’s PMIs. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. Across the Pond It’s a relatively quiet day on the data front, with economic data limited to December new home sales figures from the U.S. Barring dire numbers, the figures are unlikely to have a material impact on the day. | Following better than expected PMI numbers out of Germany last week, today’s Business Climate Figures will need to support. Based on last week’s numbers alone, the Pound should find a further upside, though chatter from the EU on trade will likely influence. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada. | a2367a92-be59-49f5-a0cc-520c63ee415d |
709153.0 | 2020-01-22 00:00:00 UTC | The Aussie Dollar Makes a Move as the Focus Shifts to the ECB and the EUR | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-aussie-dollar-makes-a-move-as-the-focus-shifts-to-the-ecb-and-the-eur-2020-01-23 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busier day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. Key stats included trade data out of Japan and employment figures out of Australia.
For the Japanese Yen
Japan’s trade deficit widened from ¥85.2bn to ¥152.5bn in December. Economists had forecast a deficit of ¥150.0bn.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance,
Exports fell by 6.3%, year-on-year, following a 7.9% slide in November. Economists had forecast a 4.2% decline.
Exports to China increased by 0.8% and by 2.3 to HK, while exports to Asia fell by 3.6%, weighed by a slide in exports to the broader region.
To Western Europe, exports fell by 7.5%, with exports to Germany (-4.6%), UK (-5.5%), and the Netherlands (-9.5%) weighing.
Exports to the U.S slid by 14.9%…
Imports fell by 4.9%, year-on-year, following a 15.7% tumble in November. Economists had forecast a 3.4% decline.
Imports from Asia fell by 4.5%, with imports from the U.S (-13.7%) and the EU (-1.5%) also declining.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.763 to ¥109.719 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.09% to ¥109.74 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
Employment rose by 28.9K in December, following a 39.9K increase in November. Economists had forecast a 15.0k rise.
According to the ABS,
The total number of people in full-time employment fell by 300, while people in part-time employment rose by 29,200.
Since December 2018, full-time employment increased by 152,700 people, while part-time employment increased by 109,900 people.
The employment to population ratio held steady at 62.6% in December 2019 and was up by 0.3 pts since December 2018.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68392 to $0.68754 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.48% to $0.6877.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.05% to $0.6596.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with the ECB in action later this afternoon.
On the economic data front, prelim Eurozone consumer confidence figures will also be in focus.
With the ECB expected to hold steady on monetary policy this month, the ECB press conference will likely have the greatest influence.
Following last month’s press conference, the big question is whether the review of the ECB framework is complete and if there is a shift in the ECB’s areas of focus in formulating policy decisions going forward.
We can expect any revisions to growth and inflation forecasts to also influence.
Will there be some optimism following December’s PMI numbers and the signing of the phase 1 trade agreement?
There is the threat of U.S tariffs on EU cars to consider. If Trump wants to make America great again, making it punitive to buy EU cars would make sense…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1096.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction.
With Brexit just days away, updates from the World Economic Forum could provide direction. How Boris Johnson progresses with world leaders on trade will be of market interest.
On the Brexit front, the House of Lords made changes to the Brexit Bill that Johnson had pushed through Parliament earlier in the month.
We will see another vote late on Wednesday to send the bill back to the House of Lords, which will likely kick start a game of ping pong until common ground is found.
All of this before Britain enters the transition period in just 5-days…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.3149.
Across the Pond
It’s another relatively quiet day on the data front, with stats limited to the weekly jobless claims figures.
Barring any jump in initial jobless claims to above 220k levels, we would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Dollar.
Outside of the numbers, expect updates on the coronavirus and the World Economic Forum to influence.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the day flat at 97.527 on Wednesday.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction
Following the BoC’s policy decision from Wednesday, expect crude oil prices and the weekly inventory numbers to influence ahead of retail sales figures due out tomorrow.
Through the early part of the day, the markets responded further to the BoC’s dovish stance on policy.
The Loonie was down by 0.14% at C$1.3154 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | We will see another vote late on Wednesday to send the bill back to the House of Lords, which will likely kick start a game of ping pong until common ground is found. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction Following the BoC’s policy decision from Wednesday, expect crude oil prices and the weekly inventory numbers to influence ahead of retail sales figures due out tomorrow. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Shoot Higher It’s a Busy Day Ahead on the Data Front and It’s Departure Day for Britain European Equities: GDP and Retail Sales Figures and Corporate Earnings in Focus The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Since December 2018, full-time employment increased by 152,700 people, while part-time employment increased by 109,900 people. For the Pound It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Pound with direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction Following the BoC’s policy decision from Wednesday, expect crude oil prices and the weekly inventory numbers to influence ahead of retail sales figures due out tomorrow. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with the ECB in action later this afternoon. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction Following the BoC’s policy decision from Wednesday, expect crude oil prices and the weekly inventory numbers to influence ahead of retail sales figures due out tomorrow. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver Price Forecast – Silver Markets Shoot Higher It’s a Busy Day Ahead on the Data Front and It’s Departure Day for Britain European Equities: GDP and Retail Sales Figures and Corporate Earnings in Focus The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar Employment rose by 28.9K in December, following a 39.9K increase in November. With Brexit just days away, updates from the World Economic Forum could provide direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction Following the BoC’s policy decision from Wednesday, expect crude oil prices and the weekly inventory numbers to influence ahead of retail sales figures due out tomorrow. | caf5e75e-fb41-435f-a968-c779e28e7f5d |
709154.0 | 2020-01-15 00:00:00 UTC | U.S Retail Sales and Philly FED Manufacturing Numbers Keep the Dollar in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s-retail-sales-and-philly-fed-manufacturing-numbers-keep-the-dollar-in-focus-2020-01-16 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with electronic card retail sales in focus early in the day.
With stats on the lighter side, the markets also reacted to the signing of the U.S – China phase 1 trade agreement.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Electronic card retail sales slid by 0.8%, month-on-month, in December, partially reversing a 2.9% rise in November. Economists had forecast a 0.2% fall.
According to NZStats,
Consumers spent less on long-lasting goods such as furniture, hardware, and appliances after a jump in November.
Across the 6 retail industries, spending fell in 4. The sales of furniture, hardware, appliances, and sports and recreational goods fell by 2.5%.
Fuel (-1.3%) and clothes and shoes (-1.9%) sales also fell in December.
Spending on food and beverage services and accommodation (0.4%) and sales of groceries and liquor (0.2%) saw minor gains.
Year-on-year, sales were up 3.9%, coming in well ahead of a forecasted 2.1% rise.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66144 to $0.66168 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.20% to $0.6631.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.01% to ¥109.91 against the greenback, while the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.13% to $0.6911.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with finalized German inflation figures for December due out.
We expect the numbers to have a muted impact, however, with focus likely to be on the phase 1 trade agreement.
Car registration figures will garner some attention, however, with numbers due out of France, Germany, and Italy.
With tariffs in place and forecasts from China negative for car sales, any hint of U.S tariffs on EU goods would weigh heavily. The U.S President will be looking to detract the markets and the news media from the impeachment trial…
On the monetary policy front, while the ECB meeting minutes are due out, ECB President Lagarde may draw greater interest late in the day. The ECB President is scheduled to speak after the European close.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1154.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
Economic data has been particularly disappointing this week, raising the chances of a rate cut at the end of the month.
In spite of the doom and gloom, however, the Pound has managed to hold onto $1.30 levels. Any upside is expected to remain capped though, with uncertainty over Brexit and sentiment towards monetary policy negatives.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.3042.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day on the data front. Key stats include December’s retail sales and January’s Philly FED Manufacturing numbers.
We can expect the focus to be on the retail sales figures, with domestic consumption key for growth.
Barring a spike, the weekly jobless claims figures will likely have a muted impact on the day.
On the geopolitical front, with the phase 1 trade agreement out of the way, we may see interest in Trump’s impeachment trial rise…
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 97.199 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and influence on crude oil prices.
The Loonie was flat at C$1.3042 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | On the geopolitical front, with the phase 1 trade agreement out of the way, we may see interest in Trump’s impeachment trial rise… The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 97.199 at the time of writing. The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and influence on crude oil prices. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Shares Higher on Dampened China Virus Worries; PMIs Not So Bad Private Sector PMIs and Retail Sales Figures Put the EUR, GBP, USD and Loonie in Focus EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Attempts to Recover Following PMI Data Beat The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar Electronic card retail sales slid by 0.8%, month-on-month, in December, partially reversing a 2.9% rise in November. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the Loonie with direction. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with finalized German inflation figures for December due out. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Shares Higher on Dampened China Virus Worries; PMIs Not So Bad Private Sector PMIs and Retail Sales Figures Put the EUR, GBP, USD and Loonie in Focus EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Attempts to Recover Following PMI Data Beat The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar Electronic card retail sales slid by 0.8%, month-on-month, in December, partially reversing a 2.9% rise in November. On the geopolitical front, with the phase 1 trade agreement out of the way, we may see interest in Trump’s impeachment trial rise… The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 97.199 at the time of writing. There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the Loonie with direction. | 54aef576-71ab-4e8c-a032-c75a37dc4e2f |
709155.0 | 2020-01-14 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data and Geopolitics Put the GBP and USD in the Limelight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-and-geopolitics-put-the-gbp-and-usd-in-the-limelight-2020-01-15 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a particularly quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with no material stats to provide direction.
While there were no material stats, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda spoke early on. Kuroda continued to assure the markets that the BoJ will deliver more easing should the need arise. The BoJ Governor added that he expected inflationary pressures to build, though it would take time, with falling oil prices a drag near-term.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitics remained in focus, with the U.S and China scheduled to sign the phase 1 trade agreement later today.
Overnight, details of the phase 1 trade agreement spooked the markets, with tariffs to remain until after the November Presidential Election. In the early hours of this morning, it was also reported that the U.S would be able to block sales to Huawei. This added to concerns over China’s adherence to the terms of the agreement, once in effect.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥109.94 against the greenback. The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.08% to $0.6610, with the Aussie Dollar down by 0.03% to $0.6900.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with the Eurozone’s November industrial production and trade data due out.
Forecasts are mixed for the EUR, with industrial production expected to rise by 0.3%, month-on-month, while the trade surplus is forecast to narrow to €23.3bn.
We would expect any deviation from the industrial production forecast to have the greatest impact on the EUR.
Finalized inflation figures out of France and Spain are also due out, but will likely be brushed aside by the markets.
Outside of the numbers, China and the U.S are due to sign the phase 1 trade agreement later today. Will there any last-minute hiccups?
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1129.
For the Pound
It’s also a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. December inflation figures are due and will provide direction to the Pound.
Economic data released on Monday supported the more dovish outlook on monetary policy, raising the chances of a rate cut on 30th January.
Today’s inflation figures are unlikely to have too much influence, barring a material shift from the 1.5% annual rate of inflation recorded in November.
On the geopolitical front, Brexit chatter will also be in focus, as will monetary policy. MPC member Saunders is scheduled to speak later this morning.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.3024.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day on the data front. Key stats include December wholesale inflation figures and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers for January.
Expect the figures to influence, though direction will ultimately come from Washington. The market focus will be on the signing of the phase 1 trade agreement and what comes next.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 97.385 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and influence on crude oil prices.
The Loonie was down by 0.05% to C$1.3068 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The BoJ Governor added that he expected inflationary pressures to build, though it would take time, with falling oil prices a drag near-term. Economic data released on Monday supported the more dovish outlook on monetary policy, raising the chances of a rate cut on 30th January. Key stats include December wholesale inflation figures and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers for January. | Outside of the numbers, geopolitics remained in focus, with the U.S and China scheduled to sign the phase 1 trade agreement later today. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with the Eurozone’s November industrial production and trade data due out. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – ‘Abundant Warmth’, Weak Demand Expectations Weighing on Prices USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Wilts Against Japanese Yen USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Light Short-Covering as Safe-Haven Demand Eases The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a particularly quiet day on the Asian economic calendar this morning, with no material stats to provide direction. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar, with the Eurozone’s November industrial production and trade data due out. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – ‘Abundant Warmth’, Weak Demand Expectations Weighing on Prices USD/JPY Price Forecast – US Dollar Wilts Against Japanese Yen USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Light Short-Covering as Safe-Haven Demand Eases The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, geopolitics remained in focus, with the U.S and China scheduled to sign the phase 1 trade agreement later today. December inflation figures are due and will provide direction to the Pound. There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the Loonie with direction. | 4df1c56e-8b09-49c3-95c0-b87a3aef284a |
709156.0 | 2020-01-13 00:00:00 UTC | China Imports and Exports Surge ahead of Tomorrow’s Signing… | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-imports-and-exports-surge-ahead-of-tomorrows-signing...-2020-01-14 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy day on the Asian economic calendar this morning. Key stats included building consent and business confidence figures out of New Zealand and trade data out of China.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Survey (QSBO) showed that a net 21% of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming year. In the 3rd quarter, a net 40% of businesses had expected a deterioration.
In the 4th quarter, a net 20% of manufacturers expect worsening economic conditions, improving from 52% in the 3rd
Across the services sector, a net 26% of firms expected deterioration in economic conditions. The services sector was the most pessimistic of the sectors in the quarter.
Weak profitability left firms cautious over expansion plans, and investments in buildings in particular. A net 10% of firms were looking to reduce investments in buildings in the coming year. By contrast, firms were more positive when it came to hiring in the next quarter.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66339 to $0.66306 upon release of the figures.
Building consents slid by 8.5% in November, following on from a 1.3% decline in October. Economists had forecast a 2.1% rise.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.66303 to $0.66304 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.06% to $0.6627.
Out of China
China’s trade surplus widened from $37.93bn to $46.79bn in December. Economists had forecast a widening to $48bn.
Exports rose by 7.6% in December, year-on-year, reversing a 1.3% decline in November. Economists had forecast a 3.2% increase.
Imports jumped by 16.3% in December, year-on-year, following on from a 0.5% increase in November. Economists had forecast a 9.6% rise.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68933 to $0.68983 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.09% to $0.6898.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.12% to ¥110.08 against the greenback.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the EUR in hands of geopolitics.
It’s all about the phase 1 trade agreement for now.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1138.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats will leave Brexit chatter to influence on the day Britain’s departure date rapidly approaches.
On the monetary policy front, dovish chatter from BoE MPC members and yesterday’s disappointing stats will test the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.2994.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the data front, with December inflation figures due out of the U.S later today.
Barring an unexpected pickup in inflationary pressures the numbers are unlikely to have a lasting impact on the Dollar.
The focus in the early part of the week will remain on geopolitics as the U.S and China ready to sign the phase 1 trade agreement on Wednesday.
Expect any negative chatter to rattle the markets…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 97.379 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats scheduled for release to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and influence on crude oil prices.
Trade data out of China in the early part of the day and the signing of the U.S – China phase 1 agreement tomorrow are positives.
The Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3055 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | On the monetary policy front, dovish chatter from BoE MPC members and yesterday’s disappointing stats will test the Pound. The focus in the early part of the week will remain on geopolitics as the U.S and China ready to sign the phase 1 trade agreement on Wednesday. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and influence on crude oil prices. | In the 4th quarter, a net 20% of manufacturers expect worsening economic conditions, improving from 52% in the 3rd Across the services sector, a net 26% of firms expected deterioration in economic conditions. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction. Trade data out of China in the early part of the day and the signing of the U.S – China phase 1 agreement tomorrow are positives. | For the Kiwi Dollar The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Survey (QSBO) showed that a net 21% of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions over the coming year. In the 4th quarter, a net 20% of manufacturers expect worsening economic conditions, improving from 52% in the 3rd Across the services sector, a net 26% of firms expected deterioration in economic conditions. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction. | In the 4th quarter, a net 20% of manufacturers expect worsening economic conditions, improving from 52% in the 3rd Across the services sector, a net 26% of firms expected deterioration in economic conditions. A net 10% of firms were looking to reduce investments in buildings in the coming year. The Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3055 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 2bc14ac7-5ce9-4620-b09a-8cd662452eef |
709157.0 | 2020-01-02 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data Puts the EUR, GBP, and USD in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-puts-the-eur-gbp-and-usd-in-focus-2020-01-03 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a quiet day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
There were no material stats to provide the majors with direction through the early part of the day.
A lack of stats left the majors in the hands of risk sentiment. Optimism over trade remained the market theme through the first Friday of the year. Volumes were on the lighter side, however, with the Japan markets closed.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.17% to ¥108.39 against the greenback. The Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.09% to $0.6696, with the Aussie Dollar down by 0.13% to $0.6984.
In the equity markets
Solid gains from the U.S supported the majors in the early part of the Asian session. The ASX200 was up by 1.33% at the time of writing, with the Hang Seng up by 1.00%. Sentiment towards trade remained the key driver early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include German unemployment and prelim inflation figures for December.
Barring a material pickup in inflationary pressure, Germany’s unemployment change figures for December will be the key driver.
Any jump in unemployment would test the EUR, which had been on a tear. Downside risks to the Eurozone economy remain. Thursday’s PMI numbers painted a bleak picture for labor market conditions… The Eurozone’s reliance on consumer spending remains, which makes the EUR more sensitive to today’s numbers.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1177.
For the Pound
It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with December’s construction PMI in focus.
With the sector in contraction, any increase in the pace of contraction would weigh on the Pound, though downside would be limited.
Sentiment towards the British PM’s ability to deliver an EU-UK trade agreement is the key driver for the year ahead. Johnson will need to deliver on campaign pledges, however, and avoid a 2nd Scottish referendum.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.3159, with Dollar weakness delivering the upside.
Across the Pond
It’s also a relatively busy day on the data front. Key stats include December ISM manufacturing PMI numbers.
With the markets more sensitive to the ISM figures, expect some Dollar sensitivity to the numbers. Forecasts are Dollar positive, though any upside for the Greenback may be limited on the day
Outside of the numbers, any spike in tension between the U.S and Iran and even North Korea could test risk appetite on the day…
There is also the FOMC meeting minutes due out late in the day. With few surprises expected, any unexpected talk of a shift in policy would influence…
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.11% to 96.738.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of sentiment towards trade and the effect of rising tensions in the Middle East on crude oil prices.
The Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.2979 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Barring a material pickup in inflationary pressure, Germany’s unemployment change figures for December will be the key driver. Sentiment towards the British PM’s ability to deliver an EU-UK trade agreement is the key driver for the year ahead. The lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of sentiment towards trade and the effect of rising tensions in the Middle East on crude oil prices. | Sentiment towards trade remained the key driver early on. Key stats include December ISM manufacturing PMI numbers. With the markets more sensitive to the ISM figures, expect some Dollar sensitivity to the numbers. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Thursday’s PMI numbers painted a bleak picture for labor market conditions… The Eurozone’s reliance on consumer spending remains, which makes the EUR more sensitive to today’s numbers. Forecasts are Dollar positive, though any upside for the Greenback may be limited on the day Outside of the numbers, any spike in tension between the U.S and Iran and even North Korea could test risk appetite on the day… There is also the FOMC meeting minutes due out late in the day. | Sentiment towards trade remained the key driver early on. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.3159, with Dollar weakness delivering the upside. | 694a2816-8bb7-41ba-a985-c2723a3df007 |
709158.0 | 2019-12-30 00:00:00 UTC | U.S Consumer Confidence Numbers May not Be Enough for the U.S Dollar | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s-consumer-confidence-numbers-may-not-be-enough-for-the-u.s-dollar-2019-12-31 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
China’s December private sector PMI numbers were in focus in the early part of the day.
Out of China
The Manufacturing PMI held steady at 50.2 in December, with the services PMI falling from 54.4 to 53.5.
Economists had forecast a manufacturing PMI of 50.1. China’s composite PMI slipped from 53.7 to 53.4.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.70026 to $0.70035 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.17% to $0.7006.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.21% to ¥108.65 against the greenback. with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.07% to $0.6733.
Volumes were on the lighter side through the morning, with Australia and New Zealand on half-days and the Japan markets closed.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats scheduled for release later this morning.
A lack of stats will continue to provide support to the EUR, which is on an upward trend as geopolitical risk eases further.
Expectations are for the Eurozone economy to benefit from the U.S – China phase 1 trade agreement. That is assuming, of course, that Trump doesn’t target the EU next.
While the holiday season has been kind to the EUR, there is the issue of Brexit and the possibility of a hard Brexit to consider…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.12% to $1.1212.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
With the UK markets on a shortened day, volumes will be on the lighter side, with further upside for the Pound likely through the early part of the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.11% to $1.3128, with Dollar weakness delivering the upside.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the data front. Key stats include December consumer confidence figures and October house price numbers.
December’s CB Consumer Confidence figure will have the greatest impact on the Dollar. The figures may not be enough to prevent another day in the red, however.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 96.642.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
A lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day and market risk sentiment.
The Loonie was up by 0.16% to C$1.3048 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with a weak Greenback delivering the upside.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. A lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day and market risk sentiment. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX) Technical Analysis – Trade Through 97.405 Changes Trend to Up GBP/USD – Pound Steady, Brexit Bill is Approved EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Nears Major Support Ahead of US Jobs Report The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. Key stats include December consumer confidence figures and October house price numbers. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. With the UK markets on a shortened day, volumes will be on the lighter side, with further upside for the Pound likely through the early part of the day. | At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.17% to $0.7006. With the UK markets on a shortened day, volumes will be on the lighter side, with further upside for the Pound likely through the early part of the day. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. | def74c33-4aac-48f3-9b5b-718c4fd6caaf |
709159.0 | 2019-12-29 00:00:00 UTC | The Dollar Slide Continues as Geopolitical Risk Subsides | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dollar-slide-continues-as-geopolitical-risk-subsides-2019-12-30 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a particularly quiet day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
There were no material stats to provide direction through the early part of the day.
The lack of stats left the majors in the hands of geopolitical risk sentiment that continued to drag down the U.S Dollar.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.31% to ¥109.1 against the greenback. The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.20% to $0.6994, with the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.25% to $0.6716.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. After a quiet week last week, German retail sales together with Spanish prelim inflation and 3rd quarter GDP numbers will provide direction.
We can expect the German retail sales figures to have the greatest influence on the day.
From the ECB’s last economic bulletin of the year, the reliance on solid employment conditions and wage growth to support consumer spending remains. Any weak numbers ahead of German unemployment figures at the end of the week will test the EUR’s current run…
The good news is that a phase 1 trade agreement will support the German economy that has been in the doldrums through 2019. That is, assuming of course, that phase 2 of negotiations go smoothly…
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.20% to $1.1199.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
With the UK Parliament in recess until 5th January, there’s unlikely to be too much chatter to influence the Pound.
While sentiment continues to be negative, the markets may need to have somewhat more confidence in Johnson delivering on trade within 2020…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.28% to $1.3114, with Dollar weakness delivering the upside.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the data front. Key stats include December’s Chicago PMI and November goods trade data and pending home sales figures.
Barring particularly impressive figures the stats are unlikely to reverse the Dollar’s recent losses, as geopolitical risk subsides.
On the geopolitical risk front, expect any chatter on trade to provide direction, however.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.12% to 96.797.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and market risk sentiment.
The Loonie was up by 0.09% to C$1.3067 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with rising crude oil prices and a weak Greenback delivering the upside.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | From the ECB’s last economic bulletin of the year, the reliance on solid employment conditions and wage growth to support consumer spending remains. Key stats include December’s Chicago PMI and November goods trade data and pending home sales figures. The Loonie was up by 0.09% to C$1.3067 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with rising crude oil prices and a weak Greenback delivering the upside. | For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. On the geopolitical risk front, expect any chatter on trade to provide direction, however. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pullback GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues To Grind Higher Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue Negative Momentum The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. While sentiment continues to be negative, the markets may need to have somewhat more confidence in Johnson delivering on trade within 2020… At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.28% to $1.3114, with Dollar weakness delivering the upside. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Pullback GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Continues To Grind Higher Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue Negative Momentum The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. On the geopolitical risk front, expect any chatter on trade to provide direction, however. The Loonie was up by 0.09% to C$1.3067 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with rising crude oil prices and a weak Greenback delivering the upside. | 74b7987f-73db-4d27-a007-37929392a97e |
709160.0 | 2019-12-26 00:00:00 UTC | A Quiet Economic Calendar Leaves Focus on Geopolitics | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-quiet-economic-calendar-leaves-focus-on-geopolitics-2019-12-27 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
The Japanese Yen was in focus, with December inflation, industrial production, and retail sales figures providing direction. Industrial profit figures out of China were also in focus this morning.
On the geopolitical front, positive sentiment towards trade provided early support to the Aussie dollar and Kiwi dollar, which managed to avoid a holiday sell-off.
For the Japanese Yen
Tokyo’s core annual rate of inflation picked up to 0.8% in November, which was better than a forecast of 0.6%. In October, the core annual rate of inflation had stood at 0.6%. According to consumer price figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication,
Prices for clothes & footwear (+3.1%), furniture & household utensils (+3.0%), and culture and recreation (+2.8%) provided support.
There were also increases in prices for housing (+0.5%), medical care (+0.9%), and transportation & communication (+0.9%).
Partially offsetting rising prices, however, were price falls for education (-6.1%) and fuel, light, & water charges (-0.7%).
The annual rate of inflation came in at 0.9%, with food prices rising by 2.1% year-on-year. In October, the annual rate of inflation had stood at 0.8%.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.577 to ¥109.563 upon release of the figures, which preceded the industrial production and retail sales numbers.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, retail sales fell by 2.1% in November, which was worse than a forecasted decline of 1.7%. In October, retail sales had slumped by 7%, year-on-year.
Industrial production fell by 0.9% in November, according to prelim figures. Economists had forecast a 1.4% fall. In October production had fallen by 4.5%.
According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry,
Industries that mainly contributed to the decrease were:
Production machinery.
Electrical machinery, and information and communication electronics equipment.
Other products.
Industries that mainly contributed to an increase were
Motor vehicles
Transport equipment (excl. motor vehicles).
Electronic parts and devices.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.552 to ¥109.515 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.15% to ¥109.47 against the greenback.
From China
Industrial profit figures were in focus, providing the Aussie Dollar with support. Profits jumped by 5.4% in November, partially reversing October’s 9.9% slump.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69474 to $0.69496 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.04% to $0.6948.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.15% to $0.6679.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats de out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
While there are no material stats, the ECB is scheduled to release the Economic Bulletin later this morning. Following further weakness in the manufacturing sector, any negative growth forecasts would be negative for the EUR>
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.11% to $1.1110.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
With the UK Parliament in recess until 5th January, there’s unlikely to be too much chatter to influence the Pound.
Sentiment continues to be negative, however, as the markets wait on to see how Johnson progresses with the EU on trade.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.10% to $1.2980.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day on the data front, with no material stats scheduled for release.
On the geopolitical risk front, expect any chatter on trade to provide direction.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 97.494.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day. Disappointing GDP numbers at the start of the week further reflected Canada’s economic woes. Hopes are for a pickup in activity, with the phase 1 trade agreement and the USMCA expected to improve global trade terms.
That should limit any major downside for the Loonie near-term.
The Loonie was up by 0.10% to C$1.3109 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with rising crude oil prices providing support.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Japanese Yen was in focus, with December inflation, industrial production, and retail sales figures providing direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EOS, Ethereum and Ripple’s XRP – Daily Tech Analysis – 08/01/20 Crude Oil Price Update – API Report Expected to Show 4.1M Barrel Draw Down Risk Aversion Hits as Iran Retaliates. | The Japanese Yen was in focus, with December inflation, industrial production, and retail sales figures providing direction. On the geopolitical front, positive sentiment towards trade provided early support to the Aussie dollar and Kiwi dollar, which managed to avoid a holiday sell-off. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. | The Japanese Yen was in focus, with December inflation, industrial production, and retail sales figures providing direction. For the Pound It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction. The Loonie was up by 0.10% to C$1.3109 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with rising crude oil prices providing support. | The Japanese Yen was in focus, with December inflation, industrial production, and retail sales figures providing direction. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction. The Loonie was up by 0.10% to C$1.3109 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing, with rising crude oil prices providing support. | ce03849e-b50a-4f77-8d44-01c43ea9e69c |
709161.0 | 2019-12-17 00:00:00 UTC | Brexit Chatter and Stats Put the EUR, GBP and the Loonie in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/brexit-chatter-and-stats-put-the-eur-gbp-and-the-loonie-in-the-spotlight-2019-12-18 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
The Kiwi Dollar and Japanese Yen were in action in the early part of the day.
For the Kiwi Dollar
In the 3rd quarter, the current account deficit widened from NZ$1.11bn to NZ$6.35bn, quarter-on-quarter. Year-on-year, the deficit widened from NZ$10.23bn to NZ$10.28bn.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.65728 to $0.65735 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.17% to $0.6565.
For the Japanese Yen
Japan’s trade balance fell from a ¥15.7bn surplus to an ¥82.1bn deficit in November. Economists had forecast a deficit of ¥369.0bn.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance,
Year-on-year, exports fell by 7.9% in November, following a 9.2% slide in October. Economists had forecast an 8.6% decline
Within the Asian region, exports to China fell by 5.4%, by 1.5% to HK and by 17% to R. Korea, while up by 15.1% to Taiwan.
To the U.S, exports slid by 12.9%, with exports to Germany falling by 10.1%.
Imports slid by 15.7%, year-on-year in November, following a 14.8% tumble in October.
From the Asian region, imports fell by 14.6% and by 12.1% from North America.
Imports from Western Europe saw a more modest 5.6% decline.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.514 to ¥109.531 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.53 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.03% to $0.6849.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index figures and sub-indexes numbers for December.
While we can expect the Business Expectations and Current Assessment figures to influence, the Business Climate Index will have the greatest influence.
Later in the day, finalized November inflation figures are also due out of the Eurozone. Barring downward revisions to the core annual rate of inflation, the focus will be on monthly consumer prices.
On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is schedueled to speak ahead of today’s stats…
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1147.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include November inflation figures.
Following negatively skewed stats in the earlier part of the week, inflation figures could force the BoE into action…
Outside of the numbers, expect market sentiment towards Brexit and what lies ahead for Boris Johnson and the Brexiteers to also influence.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.14% to $1.3112.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day on the data front, with no material stats due out to provide the Greenback with direction.
The lack of stats will leave geopolitical risk in focus, with the focus now returning to Brexit and the chances of a no-deal departure from the EU.
The Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.21% to 97.222 on Tuesday.
For the Loonie
It’s a busier day on the economic calendar. Economic data includes November inflation figures that will have a material impact on the Loonie.
Sentiment towards monetary policy remains mixed. While the BoC has continued to signal a hold, economic data has suggested otherwise of late…
Outside of the stats, also expect influence from crude oil prices on the day, with the weekly EIA inventory numbers due out later in the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.3159 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats include Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index figures and sub-indexes numbers for December. On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is schedueled to speak ahead of today’s stats… At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1147. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX) Technical Analysis – Found Early Support on 50% Level of Major Retracement Level at 96.405 AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Direction Determined by Trader Reaction to Pair of Uptrending Gann Angles at .6986 to .6989 Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Traders Unmoved by Middle East Tensions, Weaker Dollar Amid Low Holiday Volume The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats include Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index figures and sub-indexes numbers for December. Key stats include November inflation figures. Economic data includes November inflation figures that will have a material impact on the Loonie. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. While the BoC has continued to signal a hold, economic data has suggested otherwise of late… Outside of the stats, also expect influence from crude oil prices on the day, with the weekly EIA inventory numbers due out later in the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX) Technical Analysis – Found Early Support on 50% Level of Major Retracement Level at 96.405 AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Direction Determined by Trader Reaction to Pair of Uptrending Gann Angles at .6986 to .6989 Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Traders Unmoved by Middle East Tensions, Weaker Dollar Amid Low Holiday Volume The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance, Year-on-year, exports fell by 7.9% in November, following a 9.2% slide in October. On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is schedueled to speak ahead of today’s stats… At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1147. While the BoC has continued to signal a hold, economic data has suggested otherwise of late… Outside of the stats, also expect influence from crude oil prices on the day, with the weekly EIA inventory numbers due out later in the day. | 388d0f00-d540-494d-b19d-a2405fc5abce |
709162.0 | 2019-12-16 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data Puts the Pound and the Dollar in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-puts-the-pound-and-the-dollar-in-the-spotlight-2019-12-17 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
The Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Business and consumer confidence figures were in focus in the early hours.
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 103.1 to 109.9 in the 4th quarter.
According to the latest Westpac report,
The Present Conditions Index increased from 106.4 to 110.1, with the Expected Conditions Index rising from 101.0 to 109.8.
On the economic outlook front, the 1-year economic outlook sub-index rose from -9.2 to 4.2, with the 5-year economic outlook sub-index rising from -1.1 to 9.7.
The Current Financial Situation sub-index rose from -2.4 to -0.9, with the Expected Financial Situation sub-index rising from 13.2 to 15.5.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.65984 to $0.65967 upon release of the figures that preceded business confidence figures.
The ANZ Business Confidence Index rose from -26.4 to -13.2 in December, which was better than a forecasted rise to -13.6
According to the latest ANZ Report,
A net 17% of firms expect stronger activity ahead, rising by 4 points.
Sentiment amongst manufacturers saw a marked improvement, with service sector firms also upbeat. In contrast, the construction sector remained least optimistic, whilst sentiment improves.
Improved sentiment towards the domestic economy, the level of spare capacity, and skilled labor shortages led to a lift in investment plans.
Investment Intentions rose by 3 points to +9%, supported by the manufacturing sector (up 11 points to +22%).
Employment intentions rose by 5 points to a net 8% of firms intending to lift employment, supported by the services sector.
Profit expectations rose by 3 points to a net 2% expecting lower profitability, while export intentions rose by 6 points to +7%.
Availability of credit fell by 12 points to a net 43% of firms expecting credit to be harder to get. This was the lowest level since records began in June 2009.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.65905 to $0.65948 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.02% to $0.6596.
For the Aussie Dollar
According to the ABS, home loans rose by 0.6% in October, month-on-month, following a 1.4% rise in September. Economists had forecast a rise of 1.1%.
Alongside the release of the numbers, the RBA also released its minutes from the 3rd December monetary policy decision.
Salient points from the minutes included:
Growth in household disposable income had been weak over recent years, with members noting the importance of income growth as a key driver of consumption growth.
The recent recovery in the established housing market was expected to be positive for consumption growth in the period ahead, however.
Households’ expectations about future economic conditions had declined significantly since June.
By contrast, households’ assessment of their own financial situation relative to a year earlier had remained steady and above average. Members noted that, historically, this gauge was of greater influence on household consumption decisions than expectations about future economic conditions.
Conditions in established housing markets continued to strengthen, while the new housing construction market remained subdued.
Business investment appeared to have eased in the September quarter.
Conditions in the labor market had changed little since earlier in the year. Following a sustained period of stronger-than-expected employment growth, employment had been on the decline recently.
Members noted that there had been little change in the economic outlook since the previous meeting.
The outlook for growth in output continued to be supported by lower interest rates, tax cuts, high levels of spending on infrastructure, a pick-up in the housing market, and an improved outlook in the resources sector.
Members did note, however, that weak growth in household income continued to present a downside risk to consumer spending.
While largely unchanged from earlier in the year, members will monitor labor market conditions more closely.
Members noted that it would be important to reassess the economic outlook in Feb-2020, with the Bank able to provide further stimulus, if required.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68762 to $0.68758 upon release of the stats and minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.28% to $0.6866 with the dovish minutes weighing early on.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.02% to ¥109.53 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to October trade figures for the Eurozone.
Following impressive numbers out of Germany last week, any material narrowing would impact the EUR. Any downside would likely be limited, however, as sentiment towards trade improves following the U.S – China phase 1 agreement.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.01% to $1.1143.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include October wage growth and unemployment figures along with November’s claimant count numbers.
Expect the claimant count and wage growth figures to have the greatest impact on the Pound.
Following more disappointing private sector PMI numbers on Monday, pressure on the Pound will build should today’s figures raise more red flags…
On the political front, Brexit is back in focus. With Johnson planning a 1-year transition, there are doubts over whether there is enough time to negotiate a trade agreement. The EU has certainly raised doubts and if Brexit negotiations are anything to go by, Britain could end up with punitive EU tariffs.
It does make sense, however, for Johnson to prevent a neverending period of negotiation. Britain is also a key trading partner with the EU… It’s a 2-way street on this one.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.38% to $1.3281, the early slide coming off the back of concerns over Brexit.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the data front. Key stats include November industrial production and housing data, along with October’s JOLTs job openings.
Expect industrial production figures to have the greatest impact on the data front.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.11% at 97.126.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to October manufacturing sales figures that will provide direction later today.
Outside of the stats, expect influence from crude oil prices on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.12% to C$1.3171 against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Improved sentiment towards the domestic economy, the level of spare capacity, and skilled labor shortages led to a lift in investment plans. Members noted that, historically, this gauge was of greater influence on household consumption decisions than expectations about future economic conditions. Following more disappointing private sector PMI numbers on Monday, pressure on the Pound will build should today’s figures raise more red flags… On the political front, Brexit is back in focus. | Profit expectations rose by 3 points to a net 2% expecting lower profitability, while export intentions rose by 6 points to +7%. Salient points from the minutes included: Growth in household disposable income had been weak over recent years, with members noting the importance of income growth as a key driver of consumption growth. Key stats include October wage growth and unemployment figures along with November’s claimant count numbers. | On the economic outlook front, the 1-year economic outlook sub-index rose from -9.2 to 4.2, with the 5-year economic outlook sub-index rising from -1.1 to 9.7. The ANZ Business Confidence Index rose from -26.4 to -13.2 in December, which was better than a forecasted rise to -13.6 According to the latest ANZ Report, A net 17% of firms expect stronger activity ahead, rising by 4 points. Salient points from the minutes included: Growth in household disposable income had been weak over recent years, with members noting the importance of income growth as a key driver of consumption growth. | The ANZ Business Confidence Index rose from -26.4 to -13.2 in December, which was better than a forecasted rise to -13.6 According to the latest ANZ Report, A net 17% of firms expect stronger activity ahead, rising by 4 points. The recent recovery in the established housing market was expected to be positive for consumption growth in the period ahead, however. Economic data is limited to October manufacturing sales figures that will provide direction later today. | 7786ac8f-2bf1-40cc-98a6-f1cf9a5ec8fb |
709163.0 | 2019-12-15 00:00:00 UTC | The Economic Calendar Puts the EUR, GBP and USD in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-economic-calendar-puts-the-eur-gbp-and-usd-in-focus-2019-12-16 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
The Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan were in action along with the Aussie Dollar by proxy in the early part of the day.
On the geopolitical front, while there was some relief of a phase 1 trade agreement, there are still concerns over what lies ahead.
Tariffs remain, in spite of a rollback, which will continue to pressure the U.S and Chinese economies and global trade.
Outside of trade, there is also the imminent impeachment of President Trump to keep the markets guessing…
For the Japanese Yen
December’s prelim Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.9 to 48.8, while the Services PMI rose from 50.3 to 50.6.
According to the December prelim survey,
New orders picked up in the month, after having declined in November, supported by a strong demand for services.
The pickup led to new export orders falling at a slower pace. While the manufacturing sector saw a slower rate of decline, the services sector saw a more accelerated pickup in demand.
Across the private sector, firms were less optimistic, in spite of the rise in new orders. Service sector firms had a more negative sentiment towards the economic outlook, while the manufacturing sector optimism improved.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.375 to ¥109.381 upon release of the PMI numbers. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.01% to ¥109.37 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
Economic data was on the heavier side.
Fixed Asset Investment increased by 5.2%, year-on-year, which was in line with forecasts. In October, investment had also risen by 5.2%.
Retail sales rose by 8.0%, year-on-year, following a 7.2% increase in October. Economists had forecast a 7.6% increase.
Industrial production rose by 6.2%, year-on-year, in November, which was better than a forecast of 5.0%. In October industrial production had risen by 4.7%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68770 to $0.68780 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.07% to $0.6881.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.03% to $0.6597.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly busy day ahead on the economic calendar. December’s prelim private sector PMIs are due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
3rd quarter wage growth figures are also due out later in the morning.
While we would expect Germany’s manufacturing PMI to have the greatest impact, service sector activity will need to show improvement.
Wage growth will also influence, with the ECB continuing to rely on consumer spending to support the economy.
Following Boris Johnson’s resounding victory last week, we can also expect Brexit chatter to begin hitting the news wires once more.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.49% to $1.1184.
For the Pound
December’s prelim private sector PMIs will provide direction to the Pound later this morning.
Expect the service sector PMI to have the greatest impact. With the BoE in action on Thursday, any weak numbers will weigh on the Pound.
On the political front, as the dust from the UK General Election settles, the markets will be looking for timelines on Brexit.
There’s still a long way to go, with the Pound now likely to be in the hands of how well Britain negotiates trade terms. There will also be Boris Johnson’s promises to factor in.
Ultimately, however, economic data has been dire, so sentiment towards the monetary policy should question how far the Pound can go near-term.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.39% to $1.3383.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the data front. Key stats include December’s prelim private sector PMI numbers.
Expect the services PMI to have the greatest influence on the day.
Barring dire numbers, however, we would expect the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index to have a muted impact on the Dollar.
On the geopolitical front, will this the day that Trump is impeached? Expect moves to distract the news wires if it is…
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.08% at 97.096.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to foreign securities purchases that should have a muted impact on the Loonie.
From elsewhere, economic data out of China will provide direction, with industrial production numbers out of China likely to influence crude oil prices.
Private sector PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S will also play a hand…
The Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.3174, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the December prelim survey, New orders picked up in the month, after having declined in November, supported by a strong demand for services. Following Boris Johnson’s resounding victory last week, we can also expect Brexit chatter to begin hitting the news wires once more. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Sterling Recovers and Snaps Six-Day Losing Streak EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Trying to Form a Base The Most Influential People of 2019 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | While we would expect Germany’s manufacturing PMI to have the greatest impact, service sector activity will need to show improvement. For the Pound December’s prelim private sector PMIs will provide direction to the Pound later this morning. From elsewhere, economic data out of China will provide direction, with industrial production numbers out of China likely to influence crude oil prices. | Outside of trade, there is also the imminent impeachment of President Trump to keep the markets guessing… For the Japanese Yen December’s prelim Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.9 to 48.8, while the Services PMI rose from 50.3 to 50.6. For the Pound December’s prelim private sector PMIs will provide direction to the Pound later this morning. Private sector PMIs from the Eurozone and the U.S will also play a hand… The Loonie was down by 0.06% to C$1.3174, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | For the Pound December’s prelim private sector PMIs will provide direction to the Pound later this morning. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.39% to $1.3383. Expect the services PMI to have the greatest influence on the day. | e483681f-a0af-4c98-892e-27df07d7c381 |
709164.0 | 2019-12-12 00:00:00 UTC | It’s Risk-On! Trade News and Exit Polls Drive the Pound and the Majors | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/its-risk-on-trade-news-and-exit-polls-drive-the-pound-and-the-majors-2019-12-12 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It’s a busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
Key stats included business PMI numbers out of New Zealand ahead of the 4th quarter Tankan index and finalized November industrial production figures out of Japan.
On the geopolitical front, news of the U.S reaching an in-principal deal with China as part of a phase 1 trade agreement drove demand for riskier assets. The news ultimately overshadowed the stats.
From the UK, a key exit poll showed the Tories heading for an 86 seat majority, adding to the material easing in geopolitical risk in the early hours.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The Business PMI fell from 52.6 to 51.4 in November.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.65992 to $0.65971 upon release of the figures, which came out ahead of the announcement on an in-principal trade agreement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.36% to $0.6621.
For the Japanese Yen
While the Tankan figures may well reflect the impact of the U.S – China trade war on trade terms within the region, the latest news from the U.S should limit any fallout from the numbers.
Economists have forecast a 6% rise in the All Big Industry CAPEX in the 4th quarter, following on from a 6.6% rise in the 3rd quarter.
The Big Manufacturing Outlook Index is forecasted to rise from 2 to 3 in the 4th quarter, while the Large Manufacturers Index is forecast to fall from 5 to 2.
Economists have forecasted a fall from 21 to 16 for the Large Non-Manufacturers Index.
Finalized industrial production figures are forecasted to be in line with prelim…
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.19% to ¥109.52 against the U.S Dollar, with the demand for safe havens sliding early on.
Elsewhere
The Aussie Dollar up by 0.39% to $0.6936, early support coming from the positive news from the U.S administration on trade.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Finalized November inflation figures are due out of Spain later this morning.
We would expect the stats to have a muted impact on the EUR, however, as the markets respond to the outcome of the UK General Election.
News of the in-principal trade agreement between the U.S and China was EUR positive early on. News from the UK exit polls also provided the EUR with support, with an orderly Brexit favored by the markets.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.49% to $1.1184.
For the Pound
The Pound will be in the hands of UK politics throughout the day…
A key exit poll in the early hours predicted a comfortable Conservative Party majority, driving the Pound to an early high $1.35149 before easing back.
The markets will now wait for the results. If the exit poll is correct, expect the Pound to make further gains…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 2.30% to $1.3464.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day on the data front. Key stats include November retail sales and October business inventory numbers.
Expect the retail sales numbers to have the greatest influence on the day.
November import and export price index figures for November will likely have a muted impact on the Greenback.
While the stats will influence, the latest news on trade will ultimately be the key driver.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.51% at 96.632.
For the Loonie
It’s yet another quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
Risk-on sentiment should provide support to crude oil prices and the Loonie on the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.10% to C$1.3172, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included business PMI numbers out of New Zealand ahead of the 4th quarter Tankan index and finalized November industrial production figures out of Japan. From the UK, a key exit poll showed the Tories heading for an 86 seat majority, adding to the material easing in geopolitical risk in the early hours. Finalized industrial production figures are forecasted to be in line with prelim… At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.19% to ¥109.52 against the U.S Dollar, with the demand for safe havens sliding early on. | Key stats included business PMI numbers out of New Zealand ahead of the 4th quarter Tankan index and finalized November industrial production figures out of Japan. Key stats include November retail sales and October business inventory numbers. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Gets Hammered Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Gaps Lower as Forecasts Continue to Call for Warming Trend Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Thin Volume, No EIA Data Until Friday Encouraging Profit-Taking The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included business PMI numbers out of New Zealand ahead of the 4th quarter Tankan index and finalized November industrial production figures out of Japan. Finalized industrial production figures are forecasted to be in line with prelim… At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.19% to ¥109.52 against the U.S Dollar, with the demand for safe havens sliding early on. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British Pound Gets Hammered Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Gaps Lower as Forecasts Continue to Call for Warming Trend Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Thin Volume, No EIA Data Until Friday Encouraging Profit-Taking The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included business PMI numbers out of New Zealand ahead of the 4th quarter Tankan index and finalized November industrial production figures out of Japan. News from the UK exit polls also provided the EUR with support, with an orderly Brexit favored by the markets. While the stats will influence, the latest news on trade will ultimately be the key driver. | 0ad8f881-3b8b-4542-ba43-f06446dc3e4f |
709165.0 | 2019-12-09 00:00:00 UTC | Updates on Trade and UK politics Remain the Main Area of Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/updates-on-trade-and-uk-politics-remain-the-main-area-of-focus-2019-12-10 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the Asian economic calendar in the earlier hours of this morning.
The Aussie Dollar was in action, with China inflation figures for November also in focus.
On the geopolitical front, trade jitters lingered through the session, pinning back the Asian equity markets.
For the Aussie Dollar
House prices were on the rise in the 3rd quarter, with the House Price Index rising by 2.4%, quarter-on-quarter. In the 2nd quarter, house prices had fallen by 0.7%. Economists forecasted a 0.5% rise.
According to the ABS,
Sydney and Melbourne’s residential property prices led the strongest quarterly growth since the 4th quarter of 2016.
Price in Sydney and in Melbourne both rose by 3.6%.
Year-on-year prices were down by 3.7% in the 3rd quarter, improving on a 7.4% annual slide in the 2nd
Business confidence deteriorated in November, however, with the NAB Business Confidence Index falling from 2 to 0.
According to the NAB,
Weighing in November was a fall in the forward orders sub-index, which fell from 3 to -2 and the exports sub-index which fell from 1 to 0.
On the pricing front, margins remained under pressure, with input cost inflation outpacing output price inflation.
The Business Conditions Index held steady at 4 in November.
While the trading sub-index eased from 7 to 6 points, the profitability sub-index rose from 0 to 3 points, with the employment sub-index holding steady at 4 points.
By sector, the divergence between the manufacturing and services sector widened, pointing to further subdued growth in the 4th
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68235 to $0.68273 upon release of the figure. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.06% to $0.6827.
Out of China
The annual rate of inflation came in at 4.5% in November, accelerating from 3.8% in October. Economists had forecast a rate of inflation of 4.5%.
While consumer prices were on the rise, wholesale inflationary pressure failed to materialize, with wholesale prices declining by 1.4% in November. This was better than a forecasted 1.5% fall, however.
In October, wholesale prices had fallen by 1.6%, year-on-year. The continued slide was reflective of conditions within the manufacturing sector.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68241 to $0.68271 upon release of the figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥108.61 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.14% to $0.6558.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to Germany and the Eurozone’s business sentiment figures for December. While there’s little optimism across the manufacturing sector, we can expect the EUR to react to the numbers.
3rd quarter nonfarm payroll figures out of France will likely have a muted effect early on.
On the geopolitical risk front, chatter on trade and opinion polls from the UK will continue to be in focus.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1067.
For the Pound
It’s a particularly busy day on the data front. Key stats include October trade, figures, manufacturing, and industrial production figures and GDP numbers.
We can expect the GDP and manufacturing production figures to have the greatest impact on the Pound.
Late in the day, the BoE Financial Stability Review will also provide direction.
While the stats will garner plenty of attention, ahead of next week’s Bank of England monetary policy decision, much will depend upon the outcome of Thursday’s General Election.
Expect opinion polls and predictions to continue to influence. As we saw through the start of the week, the Pound got a boost off the back of the weekend opinion polls and YouGov’s opinion poll tracker.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.03% to $1.3151.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. Finalized 3rd quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs are due out later today.
We will expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Greenback, with geopolitics in focus on the day.
As the 15th December rapidly approaches, the markets will be looking for progress on talks and a delay to the rollout of fresh tariffs…
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.02% at 97.627.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite on the day. 15th December tariffs would be a negative for crude oil prices and the Loonie, making trade updates and crude oil inventories the key driver.
The Loonie was up by 0.04% to C$1.3234, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | While the stats will garner plenty of attention, ahead of next week’s Bank of England monetary policy decision, much will depend upon the outcome of Thursday’s General Election. As the 15th December rapidly approaches, the markets will be looking for progress on talks and a delay to the rollout of fresh tariffs… At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.02% at 97.627. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Quiet Yet Again Pound Slips as Fears of No-Deal Brexit Overtake Post-Election Optimism EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues To Show Lack Of Strength The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar House prices were on the rise in the 3rd quarter, with the House Price Index rising by 2.4%, quarter-on-quarter. Year-on-year prices were down by 3.7% in the 3rd quarter, improving on a 7.4% annual slide in the 2nd Business confidence deteriorated in November, however, with the NAB Business Confidence Index falling from 2 to 0. Key stats include October trade, figures, manufacturing, and industrial production figures and GDP numbers. | For the Aussie Dollar House prices were on the rise in the 3rd quarter, with the House Price Index rising by 2.4%, quarter-on-quarter. Year-on-year prices were down by 3.7% in the 3rd quarter, improving on a 7.4% annual slide in the 2nd Business confidence deteriorated in November, however, with the NAB Business Confidence Index falling from 2 to 0. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Quiet Yet Again Pound Slips as Fears of No-Deal Brexit Overtake Post-Election Optimism EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues To Show Lack Of Strength The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Aussie Dollar was in action, with China inflation figures for November also in focus. Year-on-year prices were down by 3.7% in the 3rd quarter, improving on a 7.4% annual slide in the 2nd Business confidence deteriorated in November, however, with the NAB Business Confidence Index falling from 2 to 0. For the Pound It’s a particularly busy day on the data front. | fd593e6f-c468-4e23-b1f6-15445e3e110d |
709166.0 | 2019-12-01 00:00:00 UTC | China PMIs Give Riskier Assets a Boost as Focus Shifts to the EUR and USD | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-pmis-give-riskier-assets-a-boost-as-focus-shifts-to-the-eur-and-usd-2019-12-02 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy start to the week on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
The Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day.
Australian manufacturing, building approvals and company gross operating profit figures along with manufacturing PMI numbers out of China provided direction early in the day.
Of less influence was 3rd quarter capital spending figures out of Japan.
On the geopolitical front, the markets continued to wait out for China’s reaction to Trump’s signing of the HK Bill.
For the Japanese Yen
Capital spending surged by 7.1% in the 3rd quarter, year-on-year, following a 1.9% increase in the 2nd quarter. In the 1st quarter, spending had risen by 6.1%.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.562 to ¥109.527 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.19% to ¥109.7 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
The AIG Manufacturing Index fell from 51.6 to 48.1 in November. Following on from a slide from 54.7 back in October, the index fell to its lowest level since August 2016.
According to the latest AIG Report,
A faster rate of contraction in new orders weighed and points to a weak Christmas period ahead.
It was not industry-wide, however, with firms in the large food and beverage sector reporting buoyant conditions.
Building Approvals slid by 8.1% in October, partially reversing a 7.6% jump in September. Economists had forecast a 0.4% increase.
According to the ABS,
The slide was attributed to an 11.3% tumble in the approval of private dwellings excluding houses.
Approvals for private sector houses fell by 7%.
Company gross operating profits fell by 0.8% in the 3rd quarter, following a 4.5% rise in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a 1.5% increase.
According to the ABS,
Weighing on the headline number were falls in company profits in the following sectors:
Arts and recreation services (-16.6%).
Financial and Insurance Services (-28.0%).
Mining (-2.1%).
Other services (-4.4%).
Rental hiring and real estate services (-11.2%).
Transport, postal and warehousing (-6.6%).
While company profits declined in the quarter, wages (+1.0%) were on the rise in the quarter.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67674 to $0.6750 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar up by 0.15% to $0.6773.
Out of China
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.7 to 51.8 in November. Economists had forecast a fall to 51.4. According to the Markit Survey,
New business rose strongly, supporting another solid rise in production.
Notably, new export orders saw a 2nd consecutively monthly rise for 1st time in over 18-months.
Staffing levels held steady following 7 consecutive monthly declines, while capacity pressures led to a pickup in backlogs.
In spite of the pickup in new orders and output, positive sentiment towards the 12-month outlook fell to a 5-month low.
The fall in optimism was attributed to stricter environmental policies and continued market uncertainty.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67717 to $0.67745 upon release of the figures.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.31% to $0.6442.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include November manufacturing PMI numbers out of Italy and Spain and finalized PMIs out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
Barring deviation from prelim figures, Italy and the Eurozone’s figures will have the greatest influence on the EUR.
Expect the devil to be in the details, with employment conditions and new orders likely to be the main areas of focus.
On the geopolitical front, any updates from Beijing and Washington on trade will also influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was flat at $1.1018.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day on the data front. Finalized November manufacturing PMI numbers are due out later this morning.
Barring a material revision, however, the Pound will likely brush aside today’s numbers, with the focus being on the UK General Election.
There are just 10 days until Election Day and Boris Johnson’s lead has narrowed sharply from 17 points to just 9 according to the latest YouGov opinion poll tracker.
Sunday’s ITV Election Debate will likely have some influence in the early part of the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.09% to $1.2914.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with manufacturing PMI figures due out for November.
Barring deviation from the Markit’s prelim numbers, the focus will be on the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Outside of the numbers, the markets will be looking for any retaliation from China on Trump’s signing of the HK Bills last week. Or there could be further progress towards a phase 1 agreement…
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.04% at 98.312.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada to provide direction.
With the Bank of Canada in action on Wednesday, PMI numbers from China, the Eurozone, and the U.S could influence crude oil prices and the Loonie throughout the day.
Last week’s GDP figures suggest that the BoC may need to take a more cautious stance, which should limit any major upside in the early part of the week.
The Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.3281, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the latest AIG Report, A faster rate of contraction in new orders weighed and points to a weak Christmas period ahead. Key stats include November manufacturing PMI numbers out of Italy and Spain and finalized PMIs out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone. With the Bank of Canada in action on Wednesday, PMI numbers from China, the Eurozone, and the U.S could influence crude oil prices and the Loonie throughout the day. | Australian manufacturing, building approvals and company gross operating profit figures along with manufacturing PMI numbers out of China provided direction early in the day. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with manufacturing PMI figures due out for November. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Bounce On Wednesday EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues To Dance Around Major Figure Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas To Fill Gap The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Australian manufacturing, building approvals and company gross operating profit figures along with manufacturing PMI numbers out of China provided direction early in the day. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar, with manufacturing PMI figures due out for November. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Bounce On Wednesday EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Continues To Dance Around Major Figure Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas To Fill Gap The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Australian manufacturing, building approvals and company gross operating profit figures along with manufacturing PMI numbers out of China provided direction early in the day. For the Aussie Dollar The AIG Manufacturing Index fell from 51.6 to 48.1 in November. Approvals for private sector houses fell by 7%. | 80083b8d-5a57-48cc-8f8f-fa5ce11289ec |
709167.0 | 2019-11-26 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data and Geopolitics Keep the Greenback in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-and-geopolitics-keep-the-greenback-in-focus-2019-11-27 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day, with trade data and construction figures providing direction.
On the geopolitical front, while optimism over trade remained, a lack of commitment to a signing of an agreement limited any moves in the riskier assets.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The trade deficit narrowed from NZ$5,330m to NZ$5,040m, year-on-year, in October. Month-on-month, the deficit narrowed from NZ$1,319m to NZ$1,013m.
According to NZ Stats,
The value of total goods exports rose by NZ$206m (4.3%) to NZ$5,000m, year-on-year.
A 32% (NZ$194m) jump in the export of milk powder contributed to the upside.
The exports of lamb and beef also contributed.
A fall in the exports of untreated logs and green kiwi partially offset the gains.
By geography, exports to China rose by NZ$279m
The value of goods imports fell by NZ$86m to NZ$6,000m in October, year-on-year.
An NZ$120m fall in the imports of industrial transport equipment and NZ$84m fall in the imports of processed industrial supplies weighed on the headline figure.
Crude oil imports (-NZ$34m) also declined.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64287 to $0.64271 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.02% to $0.6429.
For the Aussie Dollar
Construction work done fell by 0.4%, quarter-on-quarter, in the 3rd quarter, following on from a 3.8% slide in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a 1% decline.
According to the ABS,
A 3.1% slide in residential construction contributed to the downside in the 3rd
Building construction (-0.5%) and engineering (-0.2%) also fell, while non-residential construction rose by 4%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67872 to $0.67874 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar up by 0.01% to $0.6789.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥109.11 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to French jobseeker numbers that are unlikely to have a material impact on the EUR.
Outside of the numbers, market risk sentiment will continue to provide direction. The big question is whether the U.S and China are any nearer to a finalized phase 1 agreement as talks drag on.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1016.
For the Pound
It’s yet another quiet day on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction to the Pound.
A lack of stats continues to leave the Pound in the hand of UK Politics, with opinion polls and predictions to provide direction throughout the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.09% to $1.2855.
Across the Pond
It’s another busy day on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the U.S include October durable goods orders and core durable goods orders. The FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index figures are also due out along with 3rd estimate GDP numbers and personal spending figures.
Barring dire numbers, the weekly jobless claims figures, pending home sales, and Chicago PMI will likely have a muted impact on the Greenback.
Outside of the numbers, any further updates from Beijing and Washington on trade will also be key.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up 0.07% at 98.316.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats scheduled for release through the day.
The lack of stats leaves the Loonie in the hands of the weekly crude oil inventory numbers and any trade talk.
The Loonie was down by 0.03% to C$1.3276, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A lack of stats continues to leave the Pound in the hand of UK Politics, with opinion polls and predictions to provide direction throughout the day. Barring dire numbers, the weekly jobless claims figures, pending home sales, and Chicago PMI will likely have a muted impact on the Greenback. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: A Light Economic Calendar Leaves Geopolitics in Focus The UK General Election – It’s the 5-Day Countdown Price of Gold Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Trade News, US Economic Data Will Drive the Price Action; Fed to Hold Policy Steady The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar The trade deficit narrowed from NZ$5,330m to NZ$5,040m, year-on-year, in October. By geography, exports to China rose by NZ$279m The value of goods imports fell by NZ$86m to NZ$6,000m in October, year-on-year. Key stats due out of the U.S include October durable goods orders and core durable goods orders. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day, with trade data and construction figures providing direction. According to NZ Stats, The value of total goods exports rose by NZ$206m (4.3%) to NZ$5,000m, year-on-year. By geography, exports to China rose by NZ$279m The value of goods imports fell by NZ$86m to NZ$6,000m in October, year-on-year. | The Kiwi Dollar and Aussie Dollar were in action in the early part of the day, with trade data and construction figures providing direction. By geography, exports to China rose by NZ$279m The value of goods imports fell by NZ$86m to NZ$6,000m in October, year-on-year. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with no material stats scheduled for release through the day. | 0545cc79-45fe-44e3-9dba-3536bd156110 |
709168.0 | 2019-11-25 00:00:00 UTC | Consumer Confidence Puts the EUR and USD in Focus as Trade Talks Continue | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/consumer-confidence-puts-the-eur-and-usd-in-focus-as-trade-talks-continue-2019-11-26 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It’s a busier day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
3rd quarter retail sales figures provided the Kiwi Dollar with direction in the early part of the day.
With no other stats for the markets to focus on, further updates on trade from Beijing and Washington also provided direction.
Optimism over trade provided support to riskier assets in the early part of the day.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Retail sales rose by 1.6% in the 3rd quarter, quarter-on-quarter, following on from a 0.2% rise in the 2nd quarter.
According to NZ Stats,
A jump in retail sales was attributed to a sharp increase in spending on electronics, including appliances, mobile phones, and computers, which rose by 4.4%.
In total, 11 of the 15 industries had higher sales volumes in the 3rd
Department store sales had the 2nd largest increase, with sales rising by 3.5%.
Accommodation had the largest decline, however, falling by 1.4%.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64065 to $0.64178 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6417.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥108.98 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar down by 0.03% to $0.6777.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate figures for December.
With so much reliance on consumer spending, amidst the ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, consumer confidence will need to hold steady.
Outside of the numbers, expect geopolitical risk to continue to influence, with trade the main area of focus as the talks of a near-term agreement build.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1011.
For the Pound
It’s another quiet day on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction to the Pound.
That leaves UK Politics to provide direction throughout the day. While there are no debates to influence, expect opinion polls and predictions to remain in focus.
So far so good for the Tories and the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2897.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the U.S include goods trade figures, new home sales, and consumer confidence figures.
We can expect new home sales and consumer confidence figures to have the greatest impact.
House price figures for September will likely have less influence on the day.
Early in the day, FED Chair Powell was also scheduled to speak, though there’s unlikely to be any surprises. On Monday, Powell had continued to suggest that no further rate cuts were likely near-term.
The Dollar Spot Index was flat at 98.319.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats scheduled for release throughout the day.
Any upside for the Loonie may be limited, however, ahead of this week’s crude oil inventory numbers.
The Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.3310, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to NZ Stats, A jump in retail sales was attributed to a sharp increase in spending on electronics, including appliances, mobile phones, and computers, which rose by 4.4%. Outside of the numbers, expect geopolitical risk to continue to influence, with trade the main area of focus as the talks of a near-term agreement build. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for December 5, 2019 Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Steady-to-Higher Ahead of Production Cut Announcement The UK General Election – Odds and Predictions Update The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | 3rd quarter retail sales figures provided the Kiwi Dollar with direction in the early part of the day. Key stats due out of the U.S include goods trade figures, new home sales, and consumer confidence figures. We can expect new home sales and consumer confidence figures to have the greatest impact. | 3rd quarter retail sales figures provided the Kiwi Dollar with direction in the early part of the day. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the U.S include goods trade figures, new home sales, and consumer confidence figures. | 3rd quarter retail sales figures provided the Kiwi Dollar with direction in the early part of the day. Key stats due out of the U.S include goods trade figures, new home sales, and consumer confidence figures. The Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.3310, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 7a72055a-6eb3-4a5f-a81e-e139f60453f4 |
709169.0 | 2019-11-24 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data to Drive the EUR, with Trump also in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-to-drive-the-eur-with-trump-also-in-focus-2019-11-24 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
There are no material stats to provide the Asian markets with direction through the early part of the day.
A lack of stats left the majors to respond to private sector PMI numbers from the U.S, which reported a pickup in activity in November.
On the geopolitical front, Trump’s announcement of China and the U.S getting close to a phase 1 agreement also supported risk appetite early on.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.03% to ¥108.69 against the U.S Dollar. The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.06% to $0.6790, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6409.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index, current assessment and business expectations figures.
We can expect the EUR to respond to the numbers as the markets look for some improvement in business sentiment to support a rebound in Germany’s manufacturing sector.
If the private sector PMIs are to be a guide, some uptick should be expected as per forecasts.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1022.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet start to the week on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction to the Pound.
UK Politics will be the main area of focus on the day, with less than 3-weeks until the UK General Election…
The latest opinion polls and projections, in the wake of Friday’s live interviews with the leaders of the 4 main political parties, will provide direction.
From the weekend, the Tories saw their lead widen across the major polls, which is Sterling positive.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.13% to $1.2851.
Across the Pond
It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats to provide direction on the day.
A lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of Washington and Beijing. Updates on trade and whether Trump vetoes or signs the HK Bill will be the key drivers on the day.
The Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.28% last week to end the week at 98.273.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats scheduled for release throughout the day.
We can expect the impact of updates from the U.S and Washington on trade to influence crude oil prices and the Loonie.
The Loonie was up by 0.07% to C$1.3293, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A lack of stats left the majors to respond to private sector PMI numbers from the U.S, which reported a pickup in activity in November. We can expect the EUR to respond to the numbers as the markets look for some improvement in business sentiment to support a rebound in Germany’s manufacturing sector. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: 7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Gains Ground as BoC Cautiously Optimistic Crude Oil Price Update – Bullish OPEC News Could Launch Move into $61.48 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | There are no material stats to provide the Asian markets with direction through the early part of the day. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: 7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Gains Ground as BoC Cautiously Optimistic Crude Oil Price Update – Bullish OPEC News Could Launch Move into $61.48 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning. There are no material stats to provide the Asian markets with direction through the early part of the day. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. | We can expect the EUR to respond to the numbers as the markets look for some improvement in business sentiment to support a rebound in Germany’s manufacturing sector. For the Pound It’s a quiet start to the week on the data front. We can expect the impact of updates from the U.S and Washington on trade to influence crude oil prices and the Loonie. | 94bf5010-b515-4b76-bcac-444a445f15e7 |
709170.0 | 2019-11-17 00:00:00 UTC | Opinion Polls Give Sterling a Boost, with the ECB and Trade also in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/opinion-polls-give-sterling-a-boost-with-the-ecb-and-trade-also-in-focus-2019-11-17 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It’s a particularly quiet economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
There are no material stats to provide direction through the early part of the day.
The lack of stats leaves geopolitics to provide direction through the session.
News from the U.S of constructive talks with China over the weekend was not enough to ease demand for the safe havens.
Updates from talks have been mixed from Washington and Beijing of late, with Trump’s unwillingness to rollback tariffs and demand for China to spend $50bn on U.S agri key issues for Beijing.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.05% to $0.6401, with the Aussie Dollar down 0.03% to $0.6815. The Japanese Yen was up by 0.06% to ¥108.74 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
While there are no stats, the ECB is scheduled to release its Financial Stability Review that will garner plenty of attention.
The markets will be looking for guidance on monetary policy, with the review the first under Lagarde’s watch.
Geopolitical risk will continue to provide direction on the day, with UK politics and trade in focus.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1052.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats leaves the Pound firmly in the hands of UK politics and the general election opinion polls.
From the weekend, opinion polls reflected a widening in support for the Tories, which is considered Pound positive.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.16% to $1.2918.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction.
The lack of stats leaves the Greenback in the hands of the U.S administration for the day.
Expect updates from the ongoing U.S – China trade talks to provide direction.
Last week, we saw the equity markets respond positively to Thursday’s updates, while the FX world decided otherwise.
With Beijing continuing to raise concerns over the issue of tariffs and demand to spend $50bn on U.S agri, a phase 1 agreement is yet to be assured.
The Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.36% last week, with pressure coming off the back of negative chatter on trade…
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. The lack of stats leaves the Loonie in the hands of risk sentiment throughout the day.
Updates from Beijing and Washington on trade talks and influence on crude oil prices will likely have the greatest impact.
Following OPEC’s favorable monthly report last week, progress on trade talks is a must for the optimism over demand for next year to continue.
The Loonie was up by 0.02% to C$1.3221, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.36% last week, with pressure coming off the back of negative chatter on trade… For the Loonie It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. Following OPEC’s favorable monthly report last week, progress on trade talks is a must for the optimism over demand for next year to continue. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Economic Data and Geopolitics Keep the Greenback in Focus Range-Bound Into The End Of 2019? | The lack of stats leaves geopolitics to provide direction through the session. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Geopolitical risk will continue to provide direction on the day, with UK politics and trade in focus. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Geopolitical risk will continue to provide direction on the day, with UK politics and trade in focus. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction. | The lack of stats leaves geopolitics to provide direction through the session. Geopolitical risk will continue to provide direction on the day, with UK politics and trade in focus. Expect updates from the ongoing U.S – China trade talks to provide direction. | b41fdb1b-1eb3-4acc-8315-dc845eea70e4 |
709171.0 | 2019-11-14 00:00:00 UTC | U.S Retail Sales and Trade Put the Greenback in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s-retail-sales-and-trade-put-the-greenback-in-focus-2019-11-15 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was on the quieter side through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats included October Business PMI figures out of New Zealand. Later on in the session, finalized September industrial production figures are due out of Japan.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and RBA Assistant Governor Debelle are also due to speak in the early part of the day.
Outside of the numbers, FED Chair Powell’s 2nd testimony to Congress late on Thursday provided few surprises to influence the markets.
On the geopolitical risk front, more negative updates from the U.S – China trade talks failed to test risk appetite in the early hours. News of China having issues with the demand to ramp up the import of U.S agri products suggests that the Phase 1 agreement is not as close to being finalized as had previously been announced.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The Business PMI rose from 48.4 to 52.6 in October, as the manufacturing sector returned to expansion for the first time since June. According to the latest PMI Survey,
New orders continued to recover, with the new orders sub-index rising to 56.2, its highest level since May 2018. In September, the sub-index had stood at 50.9.
The employment sub-index held relatively steady, rising from 50.1 to 50.2.
Finished stocks, however, continued to contract, with the sub-index falling from 49.0 to 48.5.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63706 to $0.63767 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.17% to $0.6392.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.16% to ¥108.59 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was up 0.15% to $0.6796.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone include finalized October inflation numbers out of Italy and the Eurozone and the Eurozone’s September trade data.
Barring deviation from prelim figures, the Eurozone’s trade data and month-on-month consumer price moves will likely have the greatest influence on the EUR.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to provide direction on the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1024.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
The lack of stats leaves the Pound firmly in the hands of UK politics and the general election opinion polls.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.2884.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day on the economic calendar. Economic data out of the U.S include October retail sales, industrial production figures, and September business inventories.
Of less influence on the day are NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures for November and import and export price figures for October.
While industrial production and business inventories will influence, retail sales figures will have the greatest impact on the day.
While FED is expected to stand pat on monetary policy, dire numbers could raise the prospects of further support. With the manufacturing sector in the doldrums, domestic consumption remains key to the U.S economy.
On the geopolitical front, updates on trade talks between the U.S and China will continue to influence.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 98.156 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. September’s foreign securities purchases are due out later today. We can expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Loonie, however.
Market risk appetite and sentiment towards trade will provide direction to crude oil prices and the Loonie.
Early in the day, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is scheduled to speak, with any chatter on policy to also influence.
The Loonie was up by 0.08% to C$1.3237, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. Further gains in crude oil prices provided early support.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | News of China having issues with the demand to ramp up the import of U.S agri products suggests that the Phase 1 agreement is not as close to being finalized as had previously been announced. Barring deviation from prelim figures, the Eurozone’s trade data and month-on-month consumer price moves will likely have the greatest influence on the EUR. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Important Economic News Calendar: November 25 – November 29, 2019 GBP/USD – Pound Shrugs as Retail Sales Volumes Halts Sharp Decline Risk Appetite Bolstered by Fresh Trade Optimism The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included October Business PMI figures out of New Zealand. Economic data out of the U.S include October retail sales, industrial production figures, and September business inventories. While industrial production and business inventories will influence, retail sales figures will have the greatest impact on the day. | Key stats due out of the Eurozone include finalized October inflation numbers out of Italy and the Eurozone and the Eurozone’s September trade data. Of less influence on the day are NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures for November and import and export price figures for October. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Important Economic News Calendar: November 25 – November 29, 2019 GBP/USD – Pound Shrugs as Retail Sales Volumes Halts Sharp Decline Risk Appetite Bolstered by Fresh Trade Optimism The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Later on in the session, finalized September industrial production figures are due out of Japan. Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to provide direction on the day. Economic data out of the U.S include October retail sales, industrial production figures, and September business inventories. | 6ae7b7a0-c0c1-4df8-8eae-363d36c79b68 |
709172.0 | 2019-11-12 00:00:00 UTC | UK and U.S Inflation and FED Chair Powell Put the GBP and USD in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uk-and-u.s-inflation-and-fed-chair-powell-put-the-gbp-and-usd-in-focus-2019-11-13 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats included November consumer confidence and 3rd quarter wage growth figures out of Australia.
On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ delivered its final interest rate decision of the year.
On the geopolitical risk front, Trump’s speech at the Economic Club in New York on Tuesday night tested risk appetite and the Greenback.
While stating that the U.S was close to an interim deal with China, Trump also stated that the U.S would substantially raise tariffs if Beijing does not agree with America’s trade terms.
For the Aussie Dollar
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 4.5%to 97.0 in November, partially reversing a 5.5% slide in October.
According to the Westpac report,
The uptick was supported by the RBA’s decision to hold rates unchanged in November, with the previous month’s decline attributed to the RBA’s last rate cut.
Looking at the numbers:
The sub-index for family finances vs a year ago rose by 5.2%., with finances for next 12-months up by 5.7%. In spite of the monthly rise, both remain well below their long-run averages.
Economic conditions the next 12-months rose by 4%, with economic conditions next 5-years up by 5.2%. The next 12-months sub-index was down 13.1% year-on-year, while the next 5-years was down by 10.2%.
The time to buy a major household item sub-index rose by 3% but remained 4% below its August level, which is negative heading into the holiday season.
On the labor market front, the Unemployment Expectations Index rose by 3.6% and was up by 13.4% year-on-year. This was the highest level since June 2017.
The Time to buy a dwelling index increased by 2.1%, whilst the House Price Expectations Index fell by 1.6%, the first fall since May.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68415 to $0.68431 upon release of the figures, which preceded 3rd quarter wage growth numbers.
Wage growth rose by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter, which was in line with forecasts. In the 2nd quarter, wage growth had risen by 0.6%.
According to the ABS,
Private sector wage grew by 0.5%, with public sector wages also rising by 0.5% in the 3rd
Year-on-year, wages grew by 2.2%, softer than a 2.3% rise in the 2nd
Private sector wage grew by 2.2%, with public sector wages up by 2.5%, through the year to the September quarter.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68370 to $0.68307 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.13% to $0.6850.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 1.0% in the final interest rate decision on the year. The markets had been mixed on what was to come.
According to the RBNZ rate statement,
Employment remains around its maximum sustainable level while inflation remains below the 2% target mid-point but within the target range.
Economic developments since the August Statement did not warrant a change to the already stimulatory monetary setting.
Economic growth continued to slow in mid-2019, reflecting weak business investment and soft household spending.
Growth is expected to remain subdued through the remainder of the year.
Members anticipate a lift in economic growth through 2020, however, supported by fiscal and monetary policy.
A reduction in retail lending rates supported the outlook for consumption and broad investment, with the lower exchange rate also positive.
The Committee noted the decline in one- and two-year inflation expectation figures. However, long-term inflation remains anchored to close to the 2% target mid-point. Market measures of inflation expectations have increased from their lows.
It was agreed that recent rate cuts were transmitting through the economy and that it would take time to have its full effect.
The Committee did note, however, that the risks to the economy in the near-term remained tilted to the downside.
Further monetary policy stimulus would be introduced if warranted.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63361 to $0.64149 upon release of the rate statement and monetary policy statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 1.25% to $0.6410. Next up, is the RBNZ press conference.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% to ¥108.92 against the U.S Dollar, while
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s another relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone include finalized October inflation figures out of Germany and the Eurozone’s September industrial production numbers.
We would expect the industrial production figures to have the greatest influence on the day.
Outside of the numbers, we can expect the markets to shift focus to FED Chair Powell’s testimony later today, which will influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1013.
For the Pound
It’s yet another busy day ahead on the data front. Key stats include October inflation figures that will provide the Pound with direction.
Expect any weak numbers to weigh heavily on the Pound following 2 MPC members voting in favor of a rate cut last week.
On the geopolitical risk front, UK politics will continue to grip the Pound, with the opinion polls key for now.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.2856
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Economic data out of the U.S include October inflation figures.
While we can expect the Dollar to respond to the numbers, any moves will likely be short-lived as the markets look ahead to FED Chair Powell’s testimony.
The Dollar and the U.S major indexes will be in the hands of the FED Chair late in the day. Following the pickup in service sector activity in October, according to the ISM numbers, Powell could be on the optimistic side. Particularly as the U.S and China edge closer to a phase 1 agreement.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 98.298 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
Market risk appetite and crude oil inventories will provide direction throughout the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.04% to C$1.3238, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 4.5%to 97.0 in November, partially reversing a 5.5% slide in October. The time to buy a major household item sub-index rose by 3% but remained 4% below its August level, which is negative heading into the holiday season. Expect any weak numbers to weigh heavily on the Pound following 2 MPC members voting in favor of a rate cut last week. | Key stats included November consumer confidence and 3rd quarter wage growth figures out of Australia. According to the ABS, Private sector wage grew by 0.5%, with public sector wages also rising by 0.5% in the 3rd Year-on-year, wages grew by 2.2%, softer than a 2.3% rise in the 2nd Private sector wage grew by 2.2%, with public sector wages up by 2.5%, through the year to the September quarter. Key stats due out of the Eurozone include finalized October inflation figures out of Germany and the Eurozone’s September industrial production numbers. | The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68415 to $0.68431 upon release of the figures, which preceded 3rd quarter wage growth numbers. According to the ABS, Private sector wage grew by 0.5%, with public sector wages also rising by 0.5% in the 3rd Year-on-year, wages grew by 2.2%, softer than a 2.3% rise in the 2nd Private sector wage grew by 2.2%, with public sector wages up by 2.5%, through the year to the September quarter. Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% to ¥108.92 against the U.S Dollar, while The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s another relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. | On the monetary policy front, the RBNZ delivered its final interest rate decision of the year. According to the RBNZ rate statement, Employment remains around its maximum sustainable level while inflation remains below the 2% target mid-point but within the target range. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.09% to $1.2856 Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. | 331ada91-1104-411c-bf25-3d1a4d691e6a |
709173.0 | 2019-11-11 00:00:00 UTC | Stats Put the EUR in Focus, as Sentiment towards a Trade Deal Wanes | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stats-put-the-eur-in-focus-as-sentiment-towards-a-trade-deal-wanes-2019-11-12 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats were included October business confidence figures out of Australia and 4th quarter inflation expectation numbers out of New Zealand.
Outside of the numbers, the markets reacted further to news from Monday of Trump denying having agreed to the rollback of tariffs.
For the Aussie Dollar
The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from 0 to 2 in October, falling well short of the long-run average of +6 points.
According to the October survey,
Mining, construction, retail and finance, business & property services saw confidence levels sit at around 3 points. Other industries saw conditions deteriorate in the month, with confidence in retail and wholesale the weakest.
The Business Conditions Index rose by 2 points to +3 points.
Looking at the sub-categories:
The employment index held steady at 4 points, supporting healthy employment growth near-term.
Trading conditions improved, with the sub-index rising by 3 points to +7.
Sentiment towards profitability also improved, with the sub-index rising by 2 points to 0.
The forward order sub-index rose by 5 points to +3 points, with the exports sub-index up by 1 point to +1.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68487 to $0.68518 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.6836.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Inflation expectations for 2-years out eased further in the 4th quarter, falling from 1.86% to 1.80%. Inflation expectations had stood at 2.01% back in early May.
According to the RBNZ’s survey of expectations,
Inflation expectations for 1-year out fell from 1.71% in the 3rd quarter to 1.66% in the 4th
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63564 to $0.63418 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.63446.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥109.14 against the U.S Dollar, while
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone include the ZEW’s November economic sentiment and current conditions figures for Germany and the Eurozone.
With the ECB reliant upon consumer spending to prop up the economy, we can expect plenty of sensitivity to day’s figures.
Outside of the numbers, expect geopolitical risk to continue to influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1029.
For the Pound
It’s another busy day ahead on the data front. Key stats include employment figures that will provide the Pound with direction.
While a forecasted fall in the unemployment rate would be positive, the market focus will likely be on the claimant count and wage growth figures.
Claimants are forecasted to rise by 26.5k in October, following a 21.1k rise in September. Wages are expected to rise by 4% in September, up from 3.8% in August.
On the geopolitical risk front, UK politics will continue to grip the Pound. According to the YouGov poll of polls, the Conservatives have 39% of the vote, well ahead of the Opposition Party’s 26%.
The Pound got a boost on Monday in response to Farage’s decision to not compete for 317 Conservative Party seats. While the Brexit Party is not projected to win any seats, the latest news led to a rise in projected seats for the Tories.
In response to Farage’s comments, the Electoral Calculus, which estimates the number of seats each party would win, raised its projection for the Tory Party from 370 to 382. That would give Johnson a majority of 114.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.2857.
Across the Pond
It’s another quiet quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Greenback with direction.
While there are no stats, U.S President Trump is due to speak at the Economic Club of New York that will provide the Dollar and the broader markets. We can expect plenty of chatter on trade and quite possibly views on monetary policy…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.06% to 98.256 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
Market risk appetite and influence on crude oil prices will provide direction throughout the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.10% to C$1.3246, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats were included October business confidence figures out of Australia and 4th quarter inflation expectation numbers out of New Zealand. For the Aussie Dollar The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from 0 to 2 in October, falling well short of the long-run average of +6 points. According to the October survey, Mining, construction, retail and finance, business & property services saw confidence levels sit at around 3 points. | Key stats were included October business confidence figures out of Australia and 4th quarter inflation expectation numbers out of New Zealand. Key stats include employment figures that will provide the Pound with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Early Price Action Suggests Investor Indecision USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Confused Investors Moving Money into Safe-Haven Yen GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Sterling Slips and Threatens Bullish Technical Pattern The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats were included October business confidence figures out of Australia and 4th quarter inflation expectation numbers out of New Zealand. According to the RBNZ’s survey of expectations, Inflation expectations for 1-year out fell from 1.71% in the 3rd quarter to 1.66% in the 4th The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63564 to $0.63418 upon release of the figures. Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥109.14 against the U.S Dollar, while The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. | The Business Conditions Index rose by 2 points to +3 points. According to the RBNZ’s survey of expectations, Inflation expectations for 1-year out fell from 1.71% in the 3rd quarter to 1.66% in the 4th The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63564 to $0.63418 upon release of the figures. Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥109.14 against the U.S Dollar, while The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. | 6da3fe17-388d-4a52-9d37-a789e15d1aa6 |
709174.0 | 2019-11-10 00:00:00 UTC | UK Data and Geopolitics Put the GBP, the EUR and the Dollar in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uk-data-and-geopolitics-put-the-gbp-the-eur-and-the-dollar-in-focus-2019-11-11 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats were limited to October electronic card retail sales figures out of New Zealand.
Outside of the numbers, negative sentiment towards Phase 1 of the U.S – China trade agreement tested risk appetite early on.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Electronic card retail sales fell by 0.6% in October, reversing a 0.4% rise in September. According to NZ Stats, there was not only a fall in spending on more lasting goods but also a decline in day-to-day spending on food and drinks.
Spending fell across 4 of the 6 retail industries, with durables seeing the largest decline.
Spending on hardware, appliances, department stores, and pharmaceuticals (durables) fell by 0.8%, with spending on groceries and liquor (consumables) down by 0.5%.
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.19% to $0.6340. The Kiwi found early support as the markets pared back expectations of a rate cut this Wednesday.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.13% to ¥109.12 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.19% to $0.6850.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction on the day.
The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of geopolitical risk, with Spain, the UK and trade war chatter in focus at the start of the week.
A jump in support for the far-right VOX party left the Socialist Party short of a majority on the weekend and Spain with an even more fragmented political landscape.
While expectations are that the left will form a government albeit with smaller parties, Spain has joined the far-right wave that has swept across the EU.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1020.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. Key stats include 3rd quarter GDP numbers and October manufacturing production figures. Trade data and industrial production figures are also due out but will likely have less impact on the Pound.
Following last week’s BoE monetary policy decision and 2 votes in favor of a rate cut, we can expect the Pound to be particularly sensitive to the numbers.
On the geopolitical risk front, UK politics will continue to grip the Pound. The 5-week general election campaign is underway, with the polls continuing to show the Tories out in front. According to the YouGov poll of polls, the Conservatives have 39% of the vote, well ahead of the Opposition Party’s 26%.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.10% to $1.2787.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Greenback with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of geopolitics throughout the day. Expect any further chatter on trade to have the greatest impact, with any negative chatter likely to weigh on the Dollar.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 98.368 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite on the day, with the markets focused on trade.
Following last week’s stats, sentiment towards trade would need to materially improve to support crude oil prices and the Loonie. In the early part of this morning, negative sentiment towards trade weighed on crude. Brent and WTI were down by 0.78% and by 0.73% respectively.
The Loonie was down by 0.02% to C$1.3231, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of geopolitical risk, with Spain, the UK and trade war chatter in focus at the start of the week. Following last week’s BoE monetary policy decision and 2 votes in favor of a rate cut, we can expect the Pound to be particularly sensitive to the numbers. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: Trade Tension and two HK Bills Could Sink the Majors Christine Lagarde’s Speech Takes Centre Stage as Investor Lookout For ECB’s Policy Initiatives Gold Should Move Up as Failure Swings Cue the Trend Change The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar Electronic card retail sales fell by 0.6% in October, reversing a 0.4% rise in September. The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of geopolitical risk, with Spain, the UK and trade war chatter in focus at the start of the week. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite on the day, with the markets focused on trade. | The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The lack of stats will leave the EUR in the hands of geopolitical risk, with Spain, the UK and trade war chatter in focus at the start of the week. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk appetite on the day, with the markets focused on trade. | Trade data and industrial production figures are also due out but will likely have less impact on the Pound. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.10% to $1.2787. Following last week’s stats, sentiment towards trade would need to materially improve to support crude oil prices and the Loonie. | 04ec8117-1bb4-42a0-9b7a-6fe499b7a7a0 |
709175.0 | 2019-11-07 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data Puts the EUR and the Loonie in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-puts-the-eur-and-the-loonie-in-the-spotlight-2019-11-08 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats included home loan figures out of Australia and trade data out of China
On the monetary policy front, the RBA also released its monetary policy statement.
On the geopolitical risk front, positive updates from Beijing and Washington on trade failed to support risk appetite early on.
For the Aussie Dollar
According to the ABS, home loans rose by 1.4% in September, month-on-month, and following on from a 1.8% rise in August. Economists had forecast a 1.3% increase.
On the monetary policy front, salient points from the RBA monetary policy statement included:
The RBA once more downwardly revised economic growth forecasts for this year, from 2.4% to 2.3%. This was attributed to a downward revision of household consumption and real household disposable income forecasts.
Through the first half of next year, growth was also downwardly revised from 2.7% to 2.6%.
The RBA downwardly revised its outlook on wage growth for the current year from 2.3% to 2.2%.
On the policy front, it was noted, however, that any further policy easing could convey an overly negative view of the economic outlook.
In spite of these concerns, the board remained prepared to cut rates further should lower rates be needed to support growth in the economy, full employment and to achieve the medium inflation target over time.
On the inflation front, the Board had previously forecasted that inflation would hit 2% by mid-2021. The latest forecast has inflation at 1.9% through 2021.
Looking at business investment, this was also revised downwards for the current year, from 4.1% to 3.2%.
The RBA also revised down dwelling investment from -9.0% to -11.3%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69010 to $0.68913 upon release of the figures and the RBA monetary policy statement. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.6883.
Out of China
The USD trade surplus widened from $39.65bn to $42.81bn in October. Exports fell by just 0.9%, which was better than a forecasted fall of 3.9%. Imports fell by 6.4%, coming in ahead of a forecasted 8.9% fall.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.05% to ¥109.22 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6365.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. September trade data is due out of Germany that will provide direction later this morning.
Of less influence on the day, barring dire numbers, are 3rd quarter non-farm payroll figures out of France.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.02% to $1.1052.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the markets to further respond to Thursday’s BoE policy decision and forward guidance.
On the geopolitical risk front, UK politics will continue to grip the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2815.
Across the Pond
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Prelim Michigan consumer expectations and sentiment figures are due out for November. With forecasts Dollar positive, any soft numbers would likely test the Dollar late in the day.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitics will continue to be an influence on the day, with trade talks in focus.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.03% to 98.112 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a busy day on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of Canada include October employment change figures and unemployment rate. September housing start and building permit figures will likely have a muted impact on the Loonie.
With the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 5.5%, the focus will likely be on the employment change numbers.
Outside of the numbers, chatter on trade will also provide direction for crude oil prices and the Loonie later in the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.3184, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A lack of stats will leave the markets to further respond to Thursday’s BoE policy decision and forward guidance. Key stats due out of Canada include October employment change figures and unemployment rate. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Bitcoin Cash – ABC, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 20/11/19 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Close Under 28008 Forms Closing Price Reversal Top Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Relatively Stable The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included home loan figures out of Australia and trade data out of China On the monetary policy front, the RBA also released its monetary policy statement. On the monetary policy front, salient points from the RBA monetary policy statement included: The RBA once more downwardly revised economic growth forecasts for this year, from 2.4% to 2.3%. Key stats due out of Canada include October employment change figures and unemployment rate. | Key stats included home loan figures out of Australia and trade data out of China On the monetary policy front, the RBA also released its monetary policy statement. On the monetary policy front, salient points from the RBA monetary policy statement included: The RBA once more downwardly revised economic growth forecasts for this year, from 2.4% to 2.3%. With forecasts Dollar positive, any soft numbers would likely test the Dollar late in the day. | Key stats included home loan figures out of Australia and trade data out of China On the monetary policy front, the RBA also released its monetary policy statement. Outside of the numbers, geopolitics will continue to be an influence on the day, with trade talks in focus. The Loonie was down by 0.08% to C$1.3184, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 50dfdfd2-deef-4db2-be63-69737881df0d |
709176.0 | 2019-11-05 00:00:00 UTC | A Busy Economic Calendar Puts the EUR in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-busy-economic-calendar-puts-the-eur-in-the-spotlight-2019-11-06 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats included 3rd quarter employment figures out of New Zealand and October Service sector PMI numbers out of China.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Employment rose by 0.2%, quarter-on-quarter, in the 3rd quarter, following a 0.8% increase in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a 0.3% rise.
The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.2% in the 3rd quarter, which was worse than a forecast of 4.1%.
According to NZ Stats,
While the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the underutilization rate fell to 10.4%. This was the lowest underutilization rate since the 2nd quarter of 2008.
A fall in underemployed people led to the slide in the underutilization rate.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63791 to $0.63742 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.11% to $0.6368.
Out of Japan
The Services PMI fell from a prelim 50.3 to 49.7 in October, according to finalized numbers. In September, the Services PMI had stood at 52.8.
According to the October Survey,
New orders from overseas increased for a 4th consecutive month, with the rise attributed to the Rugby World Cup.
New order growth eased to a 17-month low, however.
A consumption tax hike in October led to a pickup in inflationary pressure. Input prices rose at the strongest pace in 7-months.
Output prices rose at the quickest pace since April 2014, as firms passed on rising input prices to clients.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥109.113 to ¥109.124 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.12% to ¥109.03 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.07% to $0.6888.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone includes German factory orders, Spanish and Italian service sector PMIs for October and the Eurozone’s finalized service and composite PMI and retail sales figures. Finalized Service PMIs are also due out of France and Germany.
We would expect the Eurozone’s service and composite PMI, factory orders and retail sales figures to have the greatest impact.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.02% to $1.1073.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide direction for the Pound.
A lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of UK politics on the day as the markets look ahead to tomorrow’s BoE policy decision.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.03% to $1.2880.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include 3rd quarter nonfarm productivity and unit labor cost figures.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitics will continue to be an influence on the day.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.06% to 97.921 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. Canada’s Ivey PMI for October is due out later today.
Following a quiet start to the week, we can expect the Loonie to be responsive to today’s stat.
The weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers will also provide direction later in the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.01% to C$1.3156, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included 3rd quarter employment figures out of New Zealand and October Service sector PMI numbers out of China. A lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of UK politics on the day as the markets look ahead to tomorrow’s BoE policy decision. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Likely to Strengthen Over 108.866, Weaken Under 108.690 Asian Shares Mostly Higher; Hang Seng Jumps on Stimulus Expectations The UK General Election – Latest Polls Show the Tory Lead Widen The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included 3rd quarter employment figures out of New Zealand and October Service sector PMI numbers out of China. Key stats due out of the Eurozone includes German factory orders, Spanish and Italian service sector PMIs for October and the Eurozone’s finalized service and composite PMI and retail sales figures. We would expect the Eurozone’s service and composite PMI, factory orders and retail sales figures to have the greatest impact. | Key stats included 3rd quarter employment figures out of New Zealand and October Service sector PMI numbers out of China. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats due out of the Eurozone includes German factory orders, Spanish and Italian service sector PMIs for October and the Eurozone’s finalized service and composite PMI and retail sales figures. | For the Kiwi Dollar Employment rose by 0.2%, quarter-on-quarter, in the 3rd quarter, following a 0.8% increase in the 2nd quarter. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.2% in the 3rd quarter, which was worse than a forecast of 4.1%. Out of Japan The Services PMI fell from a prelim 50.3 to 49.7 in October, according to finalized numbers. | c543c3b2-0fdc-423f-ae76-3e46b7b13c99 |
709177.0 | 2019-11-04 00:00:00 UTC | The RBA Holds as Focus Shifts to Economic data from the UK and the U.S | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-rba-holds-as-focus-shifts-to-economic-data-from-the-uk-and-the-u.s-2019-11-05 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Economic data included October Service sector PMI numbers out of China and October BRC Retail Sales Monitor numbers out of the UK.
On the monetary policy front, the RBA also delivered its November interest rate decision and rate statement.
On the geopolitical risk front, chatter on trade provided support for riskier assets in the early part of the day.
Following talk of the U.S administration planning to issue licenses to U.S firms to sell to Huawei Technologies, there was also some chatter of pulling back on tariffs.
Out of China
The Caixin Services PMI fell from 51.3 to 51.1 in October. Economists had forecast a rise to 52.8. Supported by a pickup in manufacturing sector activity, however, the composite PMI rose from 51.9 to 52.0, its highest level since April.
According to the October Survey,
Activity in the services sector expanded at a slower pace. By contrast, manufacturing sector activity rose at the fastest pace since December 2016.
The Services Business Activity Index eased from 51.3 to 51.1 in the month. This was reportedly the slowest increase in activity in 8-months.
New order growth in the manufacturing sector rose at its fastest pace since January 2013. For service sector firms, new orders rose at a more modest rate and at its slowest pace since February.
At the composite level, new order growth held steady at September’s 19-month high.
Export orders rose, in the manufacturing sector, for the first time since May. Supported by a modest increase across the service sector, new export orders rose for the 1st time in 3-months at the composite level.
Employment across the manufacturing sector fell in October, however, with the rate of job shedding the quickest in over a year.
At composite level, employment fell for the first time in 3-months, supporting a pickup in outstanding work.
Outstanding business at the composite level increased at its quickest pace since March 2011.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68794 to $0.68852 upon release of the figures, which preceded the RBA’s interest rate decision.
For the Aussie Dollar
The RBA held rates unchanged at 0.75%, which was in line with market expectations.
According to the RBA Rate Statement,
The outlook for the Australian economy is little changed from 3-months ago.
The Centralia scenario is for the economy to grow by around 2.25% this year and then gradually pick up to around 3% in 2021.
Uncertainties domestically continue to be driven by the outlook for consumption. A sustained period of modest increases in household disposable income continues to weigh on consumer spending.
Other uncertainties include the effects of the drought and the evolution of the housing construction cycle.
Employment has continued to grow strongly and has been matched by strong growth in labor supply.
Unemployment is expected to remain at around 5.25% for some time before falling to sub-5% in 2021.
Wage growth remains subdued and is expected to remain at current levels for some time yet. A pickup is needed for inflation to sustainably move within the 2-3% target range.
Established housing market conditions continue to show signs of improvement, while new dwelling activity continues to decline.
The easing of monetary policy since June is supporting employment and income growth and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range.
It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low-interest rates will be required for Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target.
The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68864 to $0.68879 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.26% to $0.6902.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.21% to ¥108.81 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.11% to $0.6409.
Risk-on sentiment through the session provided direction for the pair early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide direction for the EUR.
A lack of stats leaves the EUR in the hands of geopolitical risk and influence of corporate earnings on risk sentiment.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1124.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the data front. October’s Services PMI and Composite PMIs are due out later this morning.
We can expect the Service PMI to have an impact on the Pound, with forecasts Pound positive.
Earlier in the day, the UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor rose by 0.1% in October, year-on-year, partially reversing a 1.7% slide from September.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.01% to $1.2885.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include September trade data, finalized Service Sector, and Composite PMI numbers and the markets preferred ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
We can expect the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to have the greatest influence on the day.
Barring dire numbers, we can expect the JOLTs job openings for September to have a muted impact following the nonfarm payroll figures. Quit rates would need to avoid a sizeable fall, however.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.10% to 97.601 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada later today.
A lack of stats continues to leave the Loonie in the hands of market sentiment towards trade and influence on crude oil prices.
The Loonie was down by 0.03% to C$1.3155, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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709178.0 | 2019-11-03 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data and the UK Parliament Put the GBP, EUR and USD in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-and-the-uk-parliament-put-the-gbp-eur-and-usd-in-focus-2019-11-04 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning, with the Japan markets closed.
Economic data was limited to September retail sales figures out of Australia.
Outside of the numbers, the markets responded further to U.S nonfarm payrolls from Friday and optimism over trade.
News of the U.S and China intending to sign phase 1 of an agreement was positive. There was also news that the U.S would be issuing licenses for U.S companies to sell tech to Huawei Technologies.
For the Aussie Dollar
Retail sales rose by just 0.2%, month-on-month, in September, following on from a 0.4% rise in August. Economists had forecasted a 0.5% increase.
According to the ABS,
Increases in sales were seen in other retailing (+0.8%), cafes, restaurants, and takeaway services (+0.6%), and food retailing (+0.1%).
Falls in the sales of clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-0.5%) and department stores (-0.2%) weighed.
Retail sales of household goods came in flat.
Quarter-on-quarter, retail sales fell by 0.1%, reversing a 0.1% rise from the 2nd
Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services led the way down, falling by 1%.
Other retailing (+0.3%), and clothing, footwear, and personal accessories (+0.3%) saw increases in sales.
The retail sales of household goods also came in flat for the quarter.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.69191 to $0.69064 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.6906, with the disappointing retail sales figures reversing earlier gains. Household consumption remains key for the RBA, which delivers its interest rate decision tomorrow.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.03% to ¥108.22 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.16% to $0.6437.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data due out of the Eurozone includes October prelim manufacturing PMI numbers from Spain and Italy. Later in the morning, finalized manufacturing PMIs are due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
Barring deviation from prelim numbers, Italy and the Eurozone’s PMis will likely have the greatest influence on the day.
On the geopolitical risk front, news from the UK on the latest general election polls and any chatter on trade will also influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1160.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the data front. October’s construction PMI is due out later this morning.
We can expect Pound sensitivity to today’s figures, though the news wires could have a greater impact on the day.
With the U.S President facing the possibility of impeachment, Boris Johnson has also reportedly found himself in hot water.
News hit the wires over the weekend of the British police presenting a criminal case against Vote Leave to the crown prosecution. The campaign group reportedly overspent during the EU Referendum, with Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, and Michael Gove allegedly being aware of the offense.
While Dominic Cummings reportedly stated that both Johnson and Gove were unaware of the overspending at the time, the two were aware at a later date and failed to report the offense. The reaction in Parliament to the reports and how the Crown Prosecution plans to proceed will have an impact on the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.09% to $1.2934.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to September factor order figures.
While we can expect the numbers to have an influence, chatter on trade and updates from the UK will also provide direction.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.01% to 97.247 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada later today.
A lack of stats leaves the Loonie in the hands of market sentiment towards trade and influence on crude oil prices.
The Loonie was down by 0.02% to C$1.3145, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Quarter-on-quarter, retail sales fell by 0.1%, reversing a 0.1% rise from the 2nd Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services led the way down, falling by 1%. News hit the wires over the weekend of the British police presenting a criminal case against Vote Leave to the crown prosecution. The campaign group reportedly overspent during the EU Referendum, with Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, and Michael Gove allegedly being aware of the offense. | Economic data was limited to September retail sales figures out of Australia. According to the ABS, Increases in sales were seen in other retailing (+0.8%), cafes, restaurants, and takeaway services (+0.6%), and food retailing (+0.1%). Economic data due out of the Eurozone includes October prelim manufacturing PMI numbers from Spain and Italy. | FXEmpire.com - Earlier in the Day: It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning, with the Japan markets closed. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.6906, with the disappointing retail sales figures reversing earlier gains. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. | Economic data was limited to September retail sales figures out of Australia. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.03% to $0.6906, with the disappointing retail sales figures reversing earlier gains. For the Pound It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the data front. | e99d7024-7db9-464a-8702-f0972d713b15 |
709179.0 | 2019-10-22 00:00:00 UTC | UK Parliament Puts Brexit on Pause and the Pound in Limbo… | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/uk-parliament-puts-brexit-on-pause-and-the-pound-in-limbo...-2019-10-23 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
The Kiwi Dollar was in action early in the session, with September trade data providing direction.
For the Kiwi Dollar
According to NZ Stats, New Zealand’s monthly goods trade deficit narrowed from NZ$1,628m to NZ$1,242m in September.
Goods exports increased by 5.1% (NZ$216m) to NZ$4.5bn.
Milk powder led the rise, surging by 51% in value (NZ$160m).
Exports to China rose by 23% (NZ$227m) to NZ$1.2bn, with exports to the U.S rising by 6.3% (NZ$22m) to NZ$364m.
Exports to Australia, the EU and Japan fell in September.
Goods imports fell by 2.1% (NZ$122m) to $5.7bn.
Petroleum and products fell by 34% (NZ$252m) to NZ$492m in September.
Aircraft and parts fell by 48% (NZ$155m) to NZ$170m.
Year-on-year, the trade deficit narrowed from NZ$5,550m to NZ$5,210m.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64037 to $0.64042 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.28% to $0.6387.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.18% to ¥108.30 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.28% to $0.6836.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
The lack of stats continues to leave the EUR exposed to Brexit chatter throughout the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.04% to $1.1120.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
A lack of stats leaves the Pound in the hands of the UK Parliament through the latter part of the day. The Pound continued to suffer in the early hours as Brexit hit pause. On Tuesday, MPs voted down the British PM’s schedule to deliver Brexit by Halloween. The good news for the Pound, however, was a Parliamentary vote in favor of Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement Bill, his first Parliamentary victory since taking office.
The loss of control over the timetable, however, could lead to continued debates on the Agreement Bill that may end up being voted down in the weeks ahead…
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.18% to $1.2849, with Brexit limbo weighing.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction.
The lack of stats leaves geopolitics to provide direction throughout the day. Earnings will also influence risk sentiment and demand for the Greenback.
The Dollar Spot Index was up 0.04% to 97.564 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to August wholesale sales figures.
Barring particularly dire numbers, the stats will likely have a muted impact on the Loonie.
The weekly EIA inventory numbers due out later today will likely garner the greatest interest.
The Loonie was down by 0.10% at C$1.3108, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action early in the session, with September trade data providing direction. The loss of control over the timetable, however, could lead to continued debates on the Agreement Bill that may end up being voted down in the weeks ahead… At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.18% to $1.2849, with Brexit limbo weighing. Across the Pond It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action early in the session, with September trade data providing direction. Across the Pond It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY – Asian Session Daily Forecast GBP/USD Daily Forecast – Sterling Holds Steady Below 1.30 Awaiting NFP Report The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers -01/11/19 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar According to NZ Stats, New Zealand’s monthly goods trade deficit narrowed from NZ$1,628m to NZ$1,242m in September. Exports to China rose by 23% (NZ$227m) to NZ$1.2bn, with exports to the U.S rising by 6.3% (NZ$22m) to NZ$364m. Across the Pond It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S to provide the Dollar with direction. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action early in the session, with September trade data providing direction. The loss of control over the timetable, however, could lead to continued debates on the Agreement Bill that may end up being voted down in the weeks ahead… At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.18% to $1.2849, with Brexit limbo weighing. The Loonie was down by 0.10% at C$1.3108, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 95555179-8672-4806-8e8e-6fac510d6855 |
709180.0 | 2019-10-21 00:00:00 UTC | OIL/USD Consolidating in a Bearish Range but Close to a Turning Point | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-usd-consolidating-in-a-bearish-range-but-close-to-a-turning-point-2019-10-21 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Dear Traders,
The WTI is at resistance and it will be either make it or break it. There are two possible scenarios, in my opinion.
53..95-54.53 is the POC zone where the last try for bears to tank the price could happen. We see that the price wants to go down, but it lacks momentum. If the bears fail to bring the price lower, a close above 54.70 will be bullish and the WTI could target 55.06, 56.21 and 56.94. However a drop off the POC zone will aim for 53.05, 52.38 and 51.23.
The analysis has been done with the CAMMACD.MTF template.
For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up up to our ecs.LIVE channel.
Many green pips,
Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX
Elite CurrenSea
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | If the bears fail to bring the price lower, a close above 54.70 will be bullish and the WTI could target 55.06, 56.21 and 56.94. Many green pips, Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX Elite CurrenSea This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Falling Yields, Weaker U.S. Dollar About to Break Higher from the Current Euro Consolidation? Asia, Europe Present Mixed Reaction to Fed; Fiat, Peugeot Confirm Merger Deal The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | 53..95-54.53 is the POC zone where the last try for bears to tank the price could happen. However a drop off the POC zone will aim for 53.05, 52.38 and 51.23. Asia, Europe Present Mixed Reaction to Fed; Fiat, Peugeot Confirm Merger Deal The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | 53..95-54.53 is the POC zone where the last try for bears to tank the price could happen. Many green pips, Nenad Kerkez aka Tarantula FX Elite CurrenSea This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Underpinned by Falling Yields, Weaker U.S. Dollar About to Break Higher from the Current Euro Consolidation? Asia, Europe Present Mixed Reaction to Fed; Fiat, Peugeot Confirm Merger Deal The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - Dear Traders, The WTI is at resistance and it will be either make it or break it. There are two possible scenarios, in my opinion. 53..95-54.53 is the POC zone where the last try for bears to tank the price could happen. | d029d99e-dc60-4c14-b2f4-f554625068bb |
709181.0 | 2019-10-16 00:00:00 UTC | Where Next for Oil After Its Double Reversal? | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-next-for-oil-after-its-double-reversal-2019-10-16 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
In yesterday’s Alert, we wrote the following:
Crude oil moved higher last week, especially on Thursday and Friday. This rally was in tune with the clear buy signals from the CCI and Stochastic indicators. While crude oil pulled back in today’s pre-market upswing, it’s unlikely that the rally is completely over at this time. Why? Because of two factors: one that we covered previously, and one that we didn’t cover so far.
The thing that we already discussed is the upside target based on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. It was not reached yet. Consequently, the price most likely has further to run.
The thing that we didn’t mention previously is the fact that crude oil just invalidated the breakdown below the rising dashed support line that’s based on the December 2018 and the August 2019 lows. Invalidations of breakdowns are bullish on their own. That’s yet another reason to expect the profits on the current crude oil long position to increase further.
The above generally remains up-to-date. The price of crude oil declined today and then rose back up and at the moment, our long positions are about $1.50 in the black. The question is whether we run for the hills because of this week’s decline, or do we wait for the price target to be reached.
The latter still appears to be the better idea. Applying the Fibonacci retracements to the October rally shows that today’s low formed almost exactly at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. That’s the classic way for any asset to correct its preceding move and then to resume the trend. The short-term trend remains up, which means that the odds are that our target area will be reached.
One concerning matter is the situation in the USD Index. In the very recent past – the last several days – the USD Index and crude oil moved in the opposite ways. Thursday’s and Friday’s upswing in crude oil corresponded to declining USD. And the USD Index seems to be bottoming.
Then again, the relationship may be very short-lived and crude oil might be able to rally despite USD’s rally for a few days, anyway. After all, the USD Index is up at the moment of writing these words, and crude oil is almost done correcting its initial downswing.
Consequently, in our view, the current long position is justified from the risk-reward point of view.
If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our Oil Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action we describe – the moment it happens. Check more of our free articles on our website – just drop by and have a look. We encourage you to sign up for our daily newsletter, too – it’s free and if you don’t like it, you can unsubscribe with just 2 clicks. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Sign up for the free newsletter today!
Thank you.
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The thing that we didn’t mention previously is the fact that crude oil just invalidated the breakdown below the rising dashed support line that’s based on the December 2018 and the August 2019 lows. If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. | If you sign up today, you’ll also get 7 days of free access to our premium daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Show Signs Of Resiliency Crude Oil Price Update – In Position to Test Major Retracement Zone at $56.81 to $58.21 Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Find Support The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Show Signs Of Resiliency Crude Oil Price Update – In Position to Test Major Retracement Zone at $56.81 to $58.21 Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Find Support The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The price of crude oil declined today and then rose back up and at the moment, our long positions are about $1.50 in the black. The short-term trend remains up, which means that the odds are that our target area will be reached. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice. | d9cbab59-6636-4905-b8d4-425d805238ad |
709182.0 | 2019-10-14 00:00:00 UTC | Brexit and Economic Data Keep the GBP and the EUR in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/brexit-and-economic-data-keep-the-gbp-and-the-eur-in-focus-2019-10-15 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
China’s September inflation figures provided direction ahead of finalized August industrial production figures out of Japan due out later this morning
In the early part of the day, the RBA also released its meeting minutes from last Tuesday’s meeting.
On the geopolitical front, sentiment towards the latest on the U.S – China trade talks and Brexit also influenced early on.
For the Aussie Dollar
Following last week’s rate cut, the RBA meeting minutes had limited influence on the Aussie Dollar. Salient points from the October Minutes included:
Risks to the global growth outlook remained tilted to the downside.
Businesses scaled back investment plans as a result of the technology and trade disputes between the U.S and China.
Further monetary policy easing was delivered to support employment and income growth and greater confidence that inflation would be consistent with the medium-term target.
Members noted that the unemployment and inflation outcomes were likely to fall short of forecasts in the near-term.
Subdued wage growth also suggested that spare capacity remained in the economy.
In spite of strong employment growth, however, the spare capacity remained, with employment growth expected to slow.
While lower interest rates could affect confidence, it would also support household cash flows and spending.
It was also noted that members were prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67694 to $0.067703 upon release of the minutes that preceded China’s inflation figures.
From China
The annual rate of inflation picked up from 2.8% to 3.0%, coming in ahead of a forecast of 2.9%. Month-on-month, consumer prices rose by 0.9%, coming in ahead of a forecasted and August 0.7%.
Wholesale fell further in September, however, with wholesale prices falling by -1.2% compared with September 2018. While in line with forecasts, the pace of deflation picked up from August’s 0.8%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67865 to $0.67849 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was flat at $0.6775.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, The Japanese Yen was up by 0.09% to ¥108.30 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.11% to $0.6306.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany and the Eurozone’s ZEW economic condition figures are due out later this morning.
French finalized September inflation figures and Germany’s ZEW current conditions figures will likely have a muted impact on the EUR.
Outside of the numbers, we can expect direction to also come from Brexit as the Brexit clock ticks away.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1031.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. August earnings and unemployment figures are due out along with September’s claimant count numbers.
We can expect the Pound to show greatest sensitivity to the wage growth and claimant count figures. Any unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, coupled with larger than anticipated increase in claimant counts would weigh heavily, however.
While we expect the stats to influence, Brexit will continue to be the key driver. A further pullback from Friday’s recent high should be expected should little progress be made on a deal.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.2616.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. October’s NY Empire State Manufacturing Index figures are due out later today.
With tariffs still in place, any further deterioration in manufacturing sector conditions would be negative.
Chatter from the Oval Office would require monitoring, however. There’s also Brexit to factor in, with any negative news considered Dollar positive.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 98.417 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices later in the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.02% at C$1.3232, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Further monetary policy easing was delivered to support employment and income growth and greater confidence that inflation would be consistent with the medium-term target. Any unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, coupled with larger than anticipated increase in claimant counts would weigh heavily, however. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Ethereum and Stellar’s Lumen Daily Tech Analysis – 24/10/19 The Waiting Game Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Worries Over Economic Headwinds Weighing on Demand The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | China’s September inflation figures provided direction ahead of finalized August industrial production figures out of Japan due out later this morning In the early part of the day, the RBA also released its meeting minutes from last Tuesday’s meeting. In spite of strong employment growth, however, the spare capacity remained, with employment growth expected to slow. French finalized September inflation figures and Germany’s ZEW current conditions figures will likely have a muted impact on the EUR. | China’s September inflation figures provided direction ahead of finalized August industrial production figures out of Japan due out later this morning In the early part of the day, the RBA also released its meeting minutes from last Tuesday’s meeting. For the Aussie Dollar Following last week’s rate cut, the RBA meeting minutes had limited influence on the Aussie Dollar. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. | China’s September inflation figures provided direction ahead of finalized August industrial production figures out of Japan due out later this morning In the early part of the day, the RBA also released its meeting minutes from last Tuesday’s meeting. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. August earnings and unemployment figures are due out along with September’s claimant count numbers. | 706eeb40-e4a7-427d-bfb3-5c785977df39 |
709183.0 | 2019-10-10 00:00:00 UTC | Trade Talks and Brexit Negotiations to Remain the Key Drivers | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trade-talks-and-brexit-negotiations-to-remain-the-key-drivers-2019-10-11 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with September’s Business PMI and electronic card retail sales providing direction early on.
On the geopolitical risk front, it was risk-on as the markets responded to positive updates from the U.S – China trade talks. There were also positive updates on Brexit negotiations, adding to the positive sentiment early in the day.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The Business PMI held steady at 48.4 September, falling short of a forecast of 49.0, according to the latest PMI Survey.
Electronic card retail sales rose by 0.4%, month-on-month, in September, following a 1.2% rise in August. Economists had forecast a 0.5% increase.
According to NZ Stats,
A 0.8% jump in spending on groceries and liquor provided support in September.
Spending on durables, including electronics, hardware, furniture and appliances and in the hospitality industries also supported. Both sectors saw a 0.4% rise in spending.
Weighing in September was a 4% fall in spending on clothes and shoes.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63181 to $0.63194 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.05% to $0.6323.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, The Japanese Yen was up by 0.01% to ¥107.97 against the U.S Dollar, with the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.16% to $0.6772.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. with German, French and Spanish finalized September inflation figures due out.
Barring a deviation from prelim figures, the stats will unlikely have a material impact on the EUR.
On the geopolitical front, it’s France’s imposed deadline for Britain to deliver a viable alternative to the Irish backstop. We can expect movement across the majors as news filters through. There is also the U.S – China trade war to factor in.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.09% to $1.1015.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
The market focus on the day will be on Brexit as Boris Johnson’s time runs out on delivering proposals to the EU. We expect the Pound to be particularly sensitive to any updates over the course of the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2440.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include U.S import and export price figures along with prelim consumer sentiment and expectation figures for October.
On the data front, we expect the Michigan consumer sentiment figures to have the greatest influence late in the day.
On the geopolitical front, it’s Friday, which has proven to be one of Trump’s favored day for tweeting. Following positive updates on Thursday, there could be further pick up in risk appetite should talks progress favorably.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 98.686 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Economic data includes September employment change figures and the September unemployment rate.
With economic data having been on the lighter side in the week, expect the Loonie to respond to the numbers.
Ahead of the stats, market sentiment towards the economic outlook and impact on crude oil prices will also provide direction.
The Loonie was down by 0.02% at C$1.3294, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with September’s Business PMI and electronic card retail sales providing direction early on. Ahead of the stats, market sentiment towards the economic outlook and impact on crude oil prices will also provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: No Major Stats Leaves Geopolitics in Focus Pound Shoots Higher Despite Brexit Drama: Gold Snoozes Important Economic News Calendar: October 21 – October 25, 2019 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with September’s Business PMI and electronic card retail sales providing direction early on. Key stats include U.S import and export price figures along with prelim consumer sentiment and expectation figures for October. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: No Major Stats Leaves Geopolitics in Focus Pound Shoots Higher Despite Brexit Drama: Gold Snoozes Important Economic News Calendar: October 21 – October 25, 2019 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with September’s Business PMI and electronic card retail sales providing direction early on. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: European Equities: No Major Stats Leaves Geopolitics in Focus Pound Shoots Higher Despite Brexit Drama: Gold Snoozes Important Economic News Calendar: October 21 – October 25, 2019 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Kiwi Dollar was in action, with September’s Business PMI and electronic card retail sales providing direction early on. On the geopolitical risk front, it was risk-on as the markets responded to positive updates from the U.S – China trade talks. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. | 8d766aa5-dac2-47db-bbb1-96e0b9efa73a |
709184.0 | 2019-10-09 00:00:00 UTC | It’s All Eyes on Washington as Trade Talks Resume Later Today | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/its-all-eyes-on-washington-as-trade-talks-resume-later-today-2019-10-10 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
The Aussie Dollar was in action, with October consumer confidence and August home loan figures providing direction early on.
On the geopolitical risk front, news of China being supportive of a trade agreement failed to spur demand for riskier assets. Trade tensions have been on the rise and China’s support of an agreement comes with a caveat that no further tariffs are introduced.
With talks set to resume later today, some caution was to be expected…
For the Aussie Dollar
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.5% to 92.8 in October, reversing a 1.7% rise in September.
According to the Westpac report,
The slide came in spite of the RBA’s latest rate cut, which will be of concern when considering the reliance on consumer spending.
Global events, including deteriorating U.S – China trade relations, contributed to the weakest confidence since July 2015.
Looking at the numbers:
The sub-index for family finances vs a year ago fell by 4.9%, with finances for next 12-months down by 3.7%.
Economic conditions next 12-months slid by 6.0%, while economic conditions next 5-years slumped by 9.1%. The next 12-months sub-index was down 15.1% year-on-year, while the next 5-years was down by 6.4%.
The time to buy a major household item sub-index fell by 4.2% following last month’s 2.8% decline.
On the labor market front, the Unemployment Expectations Index fell by 1.3%, while up by 7.3% year-on-year.
The Time to buy a dwelling index fell by 5.4%, whilst rising by 13.7% over the year. By contrast, the House Price Expectations Index rose by 5.9%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67150 to $0.67141 upon release of the figures that preceded the home loan numbers.
Home loans rose by 1.8% in August, following on from a 5% jump in July, according to the ABS. Economists had forecast a rise of 3.6%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67172 to $0.67165 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.10% to $0.6718.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, The Japanese Yen was up by 0.16% to ¥107.31 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.0.06% to $0.6289.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with German trade data due out of the Eurozone in the day ahead.
Following factory orders and industrial production figures from earlier in the week, the data would need to impress to support the EUR.
On the geopolitical front, Brexit will also be a factor along with any chatter on trade, as trade talks resume later today.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.10% to $1.0982.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. Economic data includes August industrial and manufacturing production, GDP numbers and trade data.
We would expect the manufacturing production and GDP figures to have the greatest influence on the day.
On the geopolitical front, Brexit will continue to be a key driver, however. With EU Summit just over a week away, we can expect the Pound to be particularly responsive to any updates from the EU or Westminster.
From earlier in the day, the UK’s RICS House Price Balance for September had a muted impact on the Pound.
According to the latest survey, the RICS House Price Balance Index rose from -4% to -2% in September.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.2213.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with inflation and initial jobless claims figures due out of the U.S later today.
While we can expect the Dollar to respond to the numbers, market sentiment towards the U.S and global economy and geopolitical risk will remain the key drivers.
Any pickup in inflationary pressure is unlikely to shift sentiment towards monetary policy near-term. FED members have become concerned over a likely softening in inflationary pressures. Consumer prices are forecast to rise by 0.2% in September, softer than a 0.3% rise in August.
Jobless claims figures will take a backseat on the day, barring an unexpected rise in claims. The Dollar would need initial weekly claims to hold at sub-230k levels to avoid a sell-off.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.07% to 99.052 at the time of writing, with the overnight FOMC meeting minutes weighing early on.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to August house price figures. Barring particularly dire numbers, we would expect the numbers to have a muted impact on the Loonie.
On the day, the OPEC meeting’s influence on crude oil prices and sentiment towards the global economy will provide direction.
Economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S suggest that a further cut in OPEC output and supply is required.
The Loonie would need the hope of a near-term end to the U.S – China trade war and a cut in the supply crude oil to find support.
The Loonie was down by 0.07% at C$1.3342, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With talks set to resume later today, some caution was to be expected… For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.5% to 92.8 in October, reversing a 1.7% rise in September. Across the Pond It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with inflation and initial jobless claims figures due out of the U.S later today. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold During Global Monetary Ease Black Monday 1987 VS 2019 – PART II Financial Markets Relatively Calm as Boris Johnson Pledges Not to Negotiate Brexit Delay The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The Aussie Dollar was in action, with October consumer confidence and August home loan figures providing direction early on. Economic data includes August industrial and manufacturing production, GDP numbers and trade data. On the day, the OPEC meeting’s influence on crude oil prices and sentiment towards the global economy will provide direction. | With talks set to resume later today, some caution was to be expected… For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.5% to 92.8 in October, reversing a 1.7% rise in September. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with German trade data due out of the Eurozone in the day ahead. Economic data includes August industrial and manufacturing production, GDP numbers and trade data. | With talks set to resume later today, some caution was to be expected… For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 5.5% to 92.8 in October, reversing a 1.7% rise in September. The Time to buy a dwelling index fell by 5.4%, whilst rising by 13.7% over the year. Economic data is limited to August house price figures. | c63cf84a-2ea6-4869-8d56-8046e433ba8d |
709185.0 | 2019-10-06 00:00:00 UTC | German Factory Orders, Brexit and Trade to Influence the Majors | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/german-factory-orders-brexit-and-trade-to-influence-the-majors-2019-10-07 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a particularly quiet day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
There were no material stats to provide direction at the start of the week, with the China markets closed for one final day.
A lack of stats left the majors in the hands of Friday’s nonfarm payroll numbers and the outlook towards trade talks, which tested risk sentiment at the start of the week.
It was risk-off in the early part of the day, with Chinese Yuan, Aussie Dollar, and Kiwi Dollar seeing early losses.
For the Majors
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.21% to $0.6757, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.02% to $0.6319. The Japanese Yen was up by 0.14% to ¥106.79 against the U.S Dollar, supported by jittery markets this morning.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s August factory order numbers are due out in the early part of the day.
Off the back of some disappointing private sector PMIs, we can expect the EUR to be responsive to the figures with little else on theeconomic calendarto provide a distraction.
With no material stats due out of the U.S later in the day, geopolitics and FOMC member chatter will provide direction later in the session.
On the geopolitical front, there’s Brexit and trade war chatter to consider. Will the U.S President elaborate on EU tariffs?
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.0987.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. Economic data is limited to September house prices figures that will unlikely influence the Pound.
The lack of stats leaves Brexit chatter front and center. With the British Prime Minister running out of time, any hint of an agreeable alternative to the Irish Backstop would be a boon for the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.2330.
Across the Pond
It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S later today.
A lack of stats will leave the Oval Office and Beijing in focus. The markets will be looking for positive chatter ahead of a resumption of negotiations.
While any positive sentiment towards progress on trade talks would be positive for the Dollar, negative sentiment towards the U.S economy would limit any upside.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.04% to 98.771 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day.
Against the greenback, there could be some further upside, with monetary policy divergence continuing to favor the Loonie near-term.
The Loonie was down by 0.01% at C$1.3315, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. A fall in crude oil prices weighed early on.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | A lack of stats left the majors in the hands of Friday’s nonfarm payroll numbers and the outlook towards trade talks, which tested risk sentiment at the start of the week. Off the back of some disappointing private sector PMIs, we can expect the EUR to be responsive to the figures with little else on theeconomic calendarto provide a distraction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Weekly SPX & Gold Price Cycle Report Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trying to Establish Support Base at $1489.20 to $1481.30 AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Aussie Spikes Higher as Unemployment Rate Improves Slightly The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The lack of stats leaves Brexit chatter front and center. Across the Pond It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S later today. A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices on the day. | It was risk-off in the early part of the day, with Chinese Yuan, Aussie Dollar, and Kiwi Dollar seeing early losses. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Across the Pond It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the U.S later today. | For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.2330. The Loonie was down by 0.01% at C$1.3315, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | 96c38f66-68e3-49ec-921a-e3a8ffae0495 |
709186.0 | 2019-10-01 00:00:00 UTC | The RBA Cut Rates ahead of a Busy Day on the Economic Calendar | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-rba-cut-rates-ahead-of-a-busy-day-on-the-economic-calendar-2019-10-01 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another particularly busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
New Zealand business confidence numbers, Australia manufacturing index and Japan’s Tankan survey numbers provided direction early on.
Later in the session, building approval figures out of Australia and the RBA interest rate decision also influenced.
Geopolitical risk took a back seat early on, with the news wires on the quieter side through the early hours.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Survey (QSBO) showed that a net 35% of businesses expect a deterioration in general economic conditions in the coming months. The increase in pessimism from 34% to 35% left business confidence at its lowest level since March 2009. According to the survey,
The manufacturing sector remained the most pessimistic, while there were also signs of construction demand slowing.
Retailers were also more downbeat as a result of weaker demand, with profitability in the sector at its weakest since Sep-09.
Increased cost pressures and weak pricing power reportedly continued to weigh on profitability across most sectors.
As a result of weakening profitability, a net 10% of firms cut staff numbers, which reflected the weakest level in hiring since Sep-12.
Investment intentions were also negative, with investment intentions for buildings and plant & machinery both falling to their lowest levels since Sep-09.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.62628 to $0.62578 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.26% to $0.6247.
For the Japanese Yen
The Tankan surveys delivered mixed results for the quarter.
The All Big Industry CAPEX Index rose by 6.6% in the 3rd quarter, falling short of a forecasted 7.0%. CAPEX had risen by 7.4% in the 2nd quarter.
The Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index slipped from 7 to 2 in the 3rd quarter, which was better than a forecasted fall to 1.
For the manufacturing sector, the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index fell from 7 to 5 in the quarter, which better than a forecasted 2.
For the non-manufacturing sector, the Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index declined from 23 to 21 in the quarter. Forecasts were for a fall to 20.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.065 to ¥108.061 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.17% to ¥108.26 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
The AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 53.1 to 54.7 in September. According to the latest survey,
Employment and new orders picked up in September, supported by the F&B and Machinery and Equipment manufacturing sectors.
The F&B sub-index rose by 0.2 points to 59.2, while the Machinery & Equipment index increased by 2.5 points to 56.7.
By sector, metal products (41.3) and TCF, Paper & Printing (41.8) continued to contract.
Looking at the sub-indexes, the new orders sub-index rose by 3.8 points to 57.1, with the employment sub-index rising by 6.2 points to 57.6.
Exports were in decline, however, falling by 6.1 points to 49.6, with the production sub-index falling by 3.4 points to 49.8.
Average wages continued to rise, with the sub-index up 3.5 points to 63.8.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67502 to $0.67501 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA interest rate decision and building approval figures.
Month-on-month, building approvals fell by 1.1% in August, following on from a 9.7% slide in July. Economists had forecast a 2.5% rise. According to the ABS,
A 2.4% slide in the approval of private houses weighed in August.
Approvals excluding houses rose by 3.1%
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67518 to $0.67519 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA interest rate decision.
Later in the session, the RBA cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, which was in line with market expectations, which left the Aussie Dollar in the hands of the RBA Rate Statement.
The rate statement reflected the RBA’s willingness to ease monetary policy, which weighed on the Aussie Dollar.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67457 to $0.67357 upon release of the rate statement. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.21% to $0.6736.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. September manufacturing PMIs out of Spain and Italy and finalized manufacturing PMIs out of France, Germany and the Eurozone will influence early in the session.
Later in the session, prelim Eurozone inflation figures will also influence. Any upside would be limited for the EUR, however, with negative sentiment towards the Eurozone economy pinning back the EUR.
Outside of the numbers, expect Brexit chatter and impeachment talk from the U.S to also influence.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down 0.08% at $1.0891.
For the Pound
It’s also a relatively quiet day ahead on the data front. September’s manufacturing PMI is due out later this morning.
With the UK economy struggling, a more accelerated decline in manufacturing sector activity would weigh heavily on the Pound.
Outside of the numbers, expect chatter on Brexit and the UK Parliament to also provide direction through the day.
The Pound is going to need talk of a deal to prevent a move lower to $1.21 levels…
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.2288.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include the market’s preferred ISM Manufacturing PMI for September. We can expect the employment and new orders sub-index to have the greatest influence alongside the headline figure
The Markit survey’s finalized manufacturing PMI is also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the day.
On the political front, any impeachment talk and chatter on trade will need consideration.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.10% to 99.479 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. July GDP numbers are due out of Canada later this afternoon.
With the markets expecting the BoC to hold steady on rates, softer numbers would weigh heavily on the Loonie. For now, the Loonie continues to find support from monetary policy divergence.
On Monday, the Liberal Party’s announcement of a ramp-up in government spending had offset the negative impact of crude oil prices on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.04% at C$1.3246, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | We can expect the employment and new orders sub-index to have the greatest influence alongside the headline figure The Markit survey’s finalized manufacturing PMI is also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the day. On Monday, the Liberal Party’s announcement of a ramp-up in government spending had offset the negative impact of crude oil prices on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: U.S. Futures Strongly Higher, Hopes For Brexit Deal Stoked , China Announces Financial Reforms EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for October 11, 2019 Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Next Major Move Hinges Upon Outcome of Trade Talks The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | New Zealand business confidence numbers, Australia manufacturing index and Japan’s Tankan survey numbers provided direction early on. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67502 to $0.67501 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA interest rate decision and building approval figures. Approvals excluding houses rose by 3.1% The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67518 to $0.67519 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA interest rate decision. | For the manufacturing sector, the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index fell from 7 to 5 in the quarter, which better than a forecasted 2. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67502 to $0.67501 upon release of the figures that preceded the RBA interest rate decision and building approval figures. Later in the session, the RBA cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, which was in line with market expectations, which left the Aussie Dollar in the hands of the RBA Rate Statement. | New Zealand business confidence numbers, Australia manufacturing index and Japan’s Tankan survey numbers provided direction early on. For the manufacturing sector, the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index fell from 7 to 5 in the quarter, which better than a forecasted 2. For the Aussie Dollar The AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 53.1 to 54.7 in September. | ffc7a815-db15-467d-b88d-c3b20cebe07a |
709187.0 | 2019-09-24 00:00:00 UTC | Geopolitics to Drive the Majors Through the Day | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/geopolitics-to-drive-the-majors-through-the-day-2019-09-25 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.
Key stats included New Zealand’s August trade data that preceded the RBNZ’s September monetary policy decision.
Outside of the stats, the markets responded to updates from the UN General Assembly, which weighed on sentiment towards trade and on tech stocks. U.S President Trump’s negative comments on trade and social media added to the negative risk sentiment this morning.
U.S political risk joined the laundry list of risks the markets need to consider late on Tuesday, which drove demand for U.S Treasuries. The negative sentiment spilled into the early hours as the Democrats call for impeachment talks.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The trade deficit widened from NZ$700m to NZ$1,565m in August, month-on-month. Economists had forecasted a widening to NZ$1,464m.
According to NZ Stats,
The value of total goods exports increased by NZ$151m (3.8%) from August 2018 to NZ$4.1bn.
Crude oil exports jumped by NZ$58m from August 2018, supporting the rise in exports.
There was also an increase in exports of fruit (NZ$57m).
Partially offsetting the pickup in exports were falls in LNG (down NZ$73m) and intreated logs (down NZ$51m).
The value of total goods imports in August 2019 rose by NZ$149m (+2.7%) from August 2018 to NZ$5.7bn.
An NZ$73m increase in the imports of crude oil, NZ$68m increase in aircraft parts and NZ$36m increase in fertilizers contributed.
Passenger motor car imports fell by NZ$39m (8.2%), however.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63235 to $0.63238 upon release of the numbers that preceded the RBNZ interest rate decision and rate statement.
RBNZ Monetary policy
The RBNZ held interest rates steady at 1% following last month’s larger than expected 50 basis point rate cut.
While the hold was in line with market expectations, the RBNZ Rate Statement provided direction. Salient points from the Rate Statement included:
Global trade and other geopolitical tensions remain elevated and continue to subdue the global growth outlook.
Business confidence remains low, reflecting policy uncertainty and low profitability in some sectors that are affecting business investment.
Fiscal policy is expected to lift domestic demand over the coming year, though government spending could be delayed.
Some members noted that ongoing low inflation could cause inflation expectations to fall. Others noted that this risk was balanced by the potential for rising labor and import costs.
It was noted that developments since August had not significantly changed the outlook for monetary policy.
If necessary, there remains scope for more fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63044 to $0.63455 upon the release of the rate statement. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.35% to $0.6347.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.25% to ¥107.34 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar flat at $0.6801.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the market focus on Brexit, U.S – China trade war chatter and updates from the UN General Assembly.
With Iranian President Rouhani scheduled to speak, it could get choppy later in the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.15% to $1.1003.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
Brexit and British politics continue to be the key driver.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.12% to $1.2472.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to August new home sales figures.
The numbers are unlikely to have a material impact on the Dollar, with geopolitical risk front and center on the day.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.16% to 98.491 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar once more. There are no material stats due out of Canada to provide the Loonie with direction.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and the weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers.
The Loonie was down by 0.07% at C$1.3252, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included New Zealand’s August trade data that preceded the RBNZ’s September monetary policy decision. A lack of stats will leave the market focus on Brexit, U.S – China trade war chatter and updates from the UN General Assembly. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and the weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers. | Key stats included New Zealand’s August trade data that preceded the RBNZ’s September monetary policy decision. The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63235 to $0.63238 upon release of the numbers that preceded the RBNZ interest rate decision and rate statement. While the hold was in line with market expectations, the RBNZ Rate Statement provided direction. | For the Kiwi Dollar The trade deficit widened from NZ$700m to NZ$1,565m in August, month-on-month. According to NZ Stats, The value of total goods exports increased by NZ$151m (3.8%) from August 2018 to NZ$4.1bn. An NZ$73m increase in the imports of crude oil, NZ$68m increase in aircraft parts and NZ$36m increase in fertilizers contributed. | The value of total goods imports in August 2019 rose by NZ$149m (+2.7%) from August 2018 to NZ$5.7bn. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and the weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers. | 4b9c045f-44af-4a30-81a9-c1558f0b66e2 |
709188.0 | 2019-09-19 00:00:00 UTC | A Quiet Day on the Stats Leaves Brexit and the Pound in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-quiet-day-on-the-stats-leaves-brexit-and-the-pound-in-the-spotlight-2019-09-20 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was relatively quiet through the Asian session this morning.
Economic data was limited to August inflation figures out of Japan that had a muted impact on the majors.
Later in the session, the PBoC was also in action.
For the Japanese Yen
The annual rate of inflation eased from 0.6% to 0.3% August according to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. Economist had forecast a 0.6% rate of inflation.
The annual rate of core inflation came in at 0.5% in August, which was in line with forecast, whilst down from 0.6% in July.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.038 to ¥108.021 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.08% to ¥107.93 against the U.S Dollar.
Out of China
The PBoC cut the 1-year loan prime rate from 4.25% to 4.20%, which less than a forecasted 4.15%. The 5-year LPR was left unchanged at 4.85%.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.6288, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.12% to $0.6784.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Economic data is limited to German wholesale inflation and the Eurozone’s September consumer confidence figures.
With stats on the lighter side and the Eurozone economy reliant upon consumer spending, we can expect the EUR to be sensitive to the consumer confidence numbers.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to influence throughout the day, with Brexit continuing to grab the headlines.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.10% to $1.1052.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There were no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.
On the geopolitical front, Brexit will continue to have a material impact on the Pound. The British government submitted alternatives to the Irish backstop on Wednesday. Any hint of a possible solution would give the Pound a boost.
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.2532.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Dollar with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of geopolitical risk through the day and FOMC member chatter. FOMC members Williams and Rosengren are scheduled to speak this afternoon.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 98.287 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. July retail sales figures are due out of Canada later this afternoon.
While we can expect plenty of influence from the numbers, crude oil prices will also influence on the day.
The markets will also need to monitor any chatter from the U.S on Iran. It’s been on the quieter side from the Oval Office… More sanctions may be on the way, but no military action?
The Loonie was down by 0.09% at C$1.3272, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Japanese Yen The annual rate of inflation eased from 0.6% to 0.3% August according to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. A lack of stats will leave the Greenback in the hands of geopolitical risk through the day and FOMC member chatter. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CNY – Asian Session Daily Forecast Is Reserve Bank of Australia a New Friend of Gold? | Economic data was limited to August inflation figures out of Japan that had a muted impact on the majors. For the Japanese Yen The annual rate of inflation eased from 0.6% to 0.3% August according to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to influence throughout the day, with Brexit continuing to grab the headlines. | For the Japanese Yen The annual rate of inflation eased from 0.6% to 0.3% August according to figures released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.6288, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.12% to $0.6784. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. | Later in the session, the PBoC was also in action. For the Pound It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.05% to $1.2532. | c30f1cbd-23b0-4e17-83ea-9caee6656d24 |
709189.0 | 2019-09-18 00:00:00 UTC | Employment Numbers Sink the Aussie with the BoE in Action Later Today | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/employment-numbers-sink-the-aussie-with-the-boe-in-action-later-today-2019-09-19 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was relatively busy through the Asian session this morning.
Economic data included 2nd GDP figures out of New Zealand and August employment numbers out of Australia.
The markets also responded to the Wednesday FOMC interest rate decision, projections and forward guidance.
On the geopolitical front, there were no major events to influence in the early hours.
Later this morning, the is also BoJ scheduled to deliver its monetary policy decision that is unlikely to deliver too many surprises…
For the Kiwi Dollar
In the 2nd quarter, the economy grew by 0.5%, quarter-on-quarter, easing from 0.6% in the 1st. Economists had forecast growth of 0.4%.
According to NZ Stats,
Service industries, which account for approx. 67% of the economy, supported growth in the 2nd quarter, rising by 0.7%.
Within the service industry, eight of the 11 industries saw growth, with household expenditure on services rising by 0.5%.
By contrast, goods-producing industries fell by 0.2%, weighed by manufacturing and construction.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63124 to $ upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.25% to $0.6305.
For the Aussie Dollar
August employment figures weighed on the Aussie Dollar in the early hours. According to figures released by the ABS,
Employment increased by 34,700 persons in August. Economists had forecasted a 10k increase, following a 41.1k rise person rise in July.
There was a net decrease of 15,500 persons in full-time employment and 50,200 increase in part-time employment.
Year-on-year, full-time employment increased by 186,700 persons, while part-time employment increased by 124,000 persons.
The unemployment rate rose 5.2% to 5.3%, which was in line with forecast.
Seasonally adjusted, the employment to population ratio increased by 0.1 basis points to 62.7%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68101 to a low $0.67912 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.51% to $0.6793. While the headline figures were positive, a fall in full-time employment and a rise in the unemployment rate weighed.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.25% to ¥108.18 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of the Eurozone to provide the EUR with direction.
A lack of stats will leave Wednesday’s FOMC economic projections and Brexit chatter in focus. Any increased tension in the Middle East will also need to be factored in.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.03% to $1.1027.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. August retail sales figures are due out in the early part of the day. Later this afternoon, the BoE will deliver its September monetary policy decision.
With the markets looking ahead to the BoE interest rate decision later in the day, we can expect Pound sensitivity to the numbers. Forecasts are Sterling negative.
On the monetary policy front, with the BoE expected to hold rates steady, the vote count and minutes will be the main area of focus.
Expect the Pound to respond. Economic data has disappointed suggesting a dovish hold on rates.
On the geopolitical front, Brexit will continue to have a material impact on the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.04% to $1.2467.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include September’s Philly FED Manufacturing Index and August existing home sales figures. Of less influence on the Dollar will be the weekly jobless claims and 2nd quarter current account numbers.
The Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.01% to 98.553 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
A lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and any further chatter on Iran and the Middle East…
The Loonie was down by 0.12% at C$1.3305, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | On the monetary policy front, with the BoE expected to hold rates steady, the vote count and minutes will be the main area of focus. Key stats include September’s Philly FED Manufacturing Index and August existing home sales figures. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude oil markets continue to show weakness USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar grinding against Japanese Yen Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Breakdown Continues as Traders Dwell on Rising Supply, Falling Demand The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar August employment figures weighed on the Aussie Dollar in the early hours. A lack of stats will leave Wednesday’s FOMC economic projections and Brexit chatter in focus. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude oil markets continue to show weakness USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar grinding against Japanese Yen Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Breakdown Continues as Traders Dwell on Rising Supply, Falling Demand The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar August employment figures weighed on the Aussie Dollar in the early hours. A lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and any further chatter on Iran and the Middle East… The Loonie was down by 0.12% at C$1.3305, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude oil markets continue to show weakness USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar grinding against Japanese Yen Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Breakdown Continues as Traders Dwell on Rising Supply, Falling Demand The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to figures released by the ABS, Employment increased by 34,700 persons in August. For the Pound It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. A lack of stats will continue to leave the Loonie in the hands of crude oil prices and any further chatter on Iran and the Middle East… The Loonie was down by 0.12% at C$1.3305, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. | bcb5fae4-f890-4142-ab3b-35a64cdf1c53 |
709190.0 | 2019-09-17 00:00:00 UTC | Brexit Chatter and the FED Keep the GBP and USD in the Spotlight | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/brexit-chatter-and-the-fed-keep-the-gbp-and-usd-in-the-spotlight-2019-09-18 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was relatively busy through the Asian session this morning.
Economic data included 2nd quarter current account figures out of New Zealand and August trade data out of Japan.
Outside of the stats, the markets were relatively tentative ahead of the FED monetary policy decision later today. While a 25 basis point rate cut is baked in, there is plenty of uncertainty over what lies ahead. The FOMC statement, press conference and economic projections will likely be the driving force come the Asian open tomorrow.
For the Kiwi Dollar
Year-on-year, the current account deficit narrowed from NZ$10.62bn to NZ$10.23bn in the 2nd quarter. Economists had forecast a narrowing to NZ$10.12bn.
According to NZ Stats,
Seasonally adjusted, the current account deficit narrowed by NZ$140m to NZ$2.4bn in the 2nd
The primary income deficit held relatively steady at NZ$2.4bn in the 2nd quarter, just NZ$32m narrower than in the 1st
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63583 to $0.63600 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.36% to $0.6336.
For the Japanese Yen
Japan’s trade deficit narrowed from ¥250.7bn to ¥136.3bn in August. Economists had forecast a widening to ¥355.9bn.
According to figures released by the Ministry of Finance,
Imports fell by 12% in August, year-on-year, which was larger than a forecasted 11.2% fall. In July, imports had fallen by 1.2%.
Exports declined by 8.2%, year-on-year, which was lower than a forecasted 10.9% fall. Exports had fallen by 1.5% in July.
By country, exports to China tumbled by 12.1%, with exports to North America falling by 4.7%. Exports to Western Europe were down by 1.5%, in spite of a 4.1% rise in exports to Germany.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.097 to ¥108.132 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.09% to ¥108.23 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.23% to $0.6850. While down for the morning, it all hinges on today’s FOMC. A Dovish FED could see the Aussie back at $0.69 levels…
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats are limited to the Eurozone’s finalized August inflation figures.
Barring a material deviation from prelim numbers, the stats are unlikely to have a lasting impact on the EUR.
Outside of the stats, Brexit chatter will continue to be a driving force.
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1067.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. August inflation figures are due out in the early part of the day.
With the markets looking ahead to the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday, expect some Pound sensitivity. Forecasts are Sterling negative.
Outside of the stats, monitoring Brexit chatter and political noise throughout the day will also be needed.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.09% to $1.2489.
Across the Pond
It’s a big day ahead on the economic calendar. On the data front, August building permit and housing start figures are due out.
With mortgage rates sitting at close to 3-year lows, particularly disappointing numbers could signal negative consumer sentiment towards the U.S and global economy.
A resumption of the U.S – China trade talks tomorrow and easing tension should limit the impact of dire numbers, however.
The main event of the day is the FOMC interest rate decision. With a 25 basis point rate cut has been priced in, the economic projections, statement and press conference will be key.
A hawkish rate cut could send U.S Treasuries tumbling…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 98.286 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a busy day on the economic calendar. August inflation figures are due out of Canada later this afternoon.
Following the latest BoC monetary policy decision and forward guidance, a pickup in inflationary pressures would continue to support the hold on interest rates.
Outside of the numbers, crude oil prices will continue to influence as sentiment towards supply returns to normal. While crude oil prices stabilize, there could be a jolt should the U.S insinuate action in the Middle East…
The Loonie was down by 0.08% at C$1.3254, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With mortgage rates sitting at close to 3-year lows, particularly disappointing numbers could signal negative consumer sentiment towards the U.S and global economy. Following the latest BoC monetary policy decision and forward guidance, a pickup in inflationary pressures would continue to support the hold on interest rates. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Crossing to Weakside of 2945.75 Puts Index in Bearish Position GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound bounces from 50 day EMA Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets break the trend line The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Kiwi Dollar Year-on-year, the current account deficit narrowed from NZ$10.62bn to NZ$10.23bn in the 2nd quarter. With a 25 basis point rate cut has been priced in, the economic projections, statement and press conference will be key. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Crossing to Weakside of 2945.75 Puts Index in Bearish Position GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound bounces from 50 day EMA Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets break the trend line The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to NZ Stats, Seasonally adjusted, the current account deficit narrowed by NZ$140m to NZ$2.4bn in the 2nd The primary income deficit held relatively steady at NZ$2.4bn in the 2nd quarter, just NZ$32m narrower than in the 1st The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63583 to $0.63600 upon release of the figures. A Dovish FED could see the Aussie back at $0.69 levels… The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Crossing to Weakside of 2945.75 Puts Index in Bearish Position GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound bounces from 50 day EMA Silver Price Forecast – Silver markets break the trend line The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Exports declined by 8.2%, year-on-year, which was lower than a forecasted 10.9% fall. For the Pound It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. A hawkish rate cut could send U.S Treasuries tumbling… The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 98.286 at the time of writing. | 6a8630a4-2b73-4177-a617-c5dd29bdc215 |
709191.0 | 2019-09-17 00:00:00 UTC | Dollar Rose on The Higher Oil, But The Downward Trend Remains | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dollar-rose-on-the-higher-oil-but-the-downward-trend-remains-2019-09-17 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
For a long time to come, the market will continue to have a higher premium for geopolitical risks in the Middle East region. At the same time, we should not hope that this oil rally will be stable. The spike will likely be gradually “deflated”.
Stock markets have moved away from their recent highs. Futures on S&P500 retreated 1% from Friday’s peak levels. Partly under the pressure of fears that high oil prices will have an additional deterrent effect on economic growth. Also, partly in response to weak macroeconomic data from China and the U.S. published on Monday. The dollar added 0.5% to the basket of major currencies on Monday. USD holds positions near the Thursday opening levels, before the ECB rates cut and the Q.E. restart announcement.
At the same time, it is difficult to characterize such reaction of the market as increased demand for safety as gold remains near $1500, and the response of the stock markets is far from force-majeure. It seems that politicians have managed to convince market participants that they have the determination and ability to react quickly.
The markets likely took a wait-and-see approach on the eve of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when it is expected the second back to back Fed rate cut. The risks of a weaker economy due to a possible oil shock could encourage the Fed to take a softer position for the foreseeable future. At the same time, one should not forget that the oil price spike causes inflationary risks, which will formally limit the room for manoeuvre of the Fed to ease the policy. However, in this case, there is a high chance that the Fed will turn a blind eye to the risks of short-term inflation surpass in an attempt to avoid excessive cooling of the economy.
The U.S. currency shows a decline in September, having lost 1.7% of the peak levels at 99.3 DXY by Monday morning. If yesterday’s jump by 0.5% did not become a turning point in the trend (which is unlikely so far), by the end of the month the dollar risks falling another 1.7% to 96.5 if the Fed does not surprise the markets with excessive rigidity tomorrow. Similar dynamics for EURUSD opens the way to grow to 1.1250 from current levels at 1.1000. Indeed, with rare exceptions, it is the Fed’s policy that has the most significant impact on the dynamics of national markets.
This article was written by FxPro
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At the same time, one should not forget that the oil price spike causes inflationary risks, which will formally limit the room for manoeuvre of the Fed to ease the policy. However, in this case, there is a high chance that the Fed will turn a blind eye to the risks of short-term inflation surpass in an attempt to avoid excessive cooling of the economy. If yesterday’s jump by 0.5% did not become a turning point in the trend (which is unlikely so far), by the end of the month the dollar risks falling another 1.7% to 96.5 if the Fed does not surprise the markets with excessive rigidity tomorrow. | Partly under the pressure of fears that high oil prices will have an additional deterrent effect on economic growth. The markets likely took a wait-and-see approach on the eve of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when it is expected the second back to back Fed rate cut. This article was written by FxPro This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: US Stock Market: Trade Deal is Still Number One Concern for Investors Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas markets plummet after dovish inventory figure US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Slide as Impeachment Inquiry Kicks In The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | At the same time, it is difficult to characterize such reaction of the market as increased demand for safety as gold remains near $1500, and the response of the stock markets is far from force-majeure. The markets likely took a wait-and-see approach on the eve of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when it is expected the second back to back Fed rate cut. This article was written by FxPro This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: US Stock Market: Trade Deal is Still Number One Concern for Investors Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas markets plummet after dovish inventory figure US Stock Market Overview – Stocks Slide as Impeachment Inquiry Kicks In The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Stock markets have moved away from their recent highs. USD holds positions near the Thursday opening levels, before the ECB rates cut and the Q.E. At the same time, one should not forget that the oil price spike causes inflationary risks, which will formally limit the room for manoeuvre of the Fed to ease the policy. | 45d0b622-f13e-40b1-a44b-8c2774813b9c |
709192.0 | 2019-09-16 00:00:00 UTC | A Testy Day Ahead for the Majors as the Threat of U.S Military Action Lingers | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-testy-day-ahead-for-the-majors-as-the-threat-of-u.s-military-action-lingers-2019-09-17 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was on the heavier side through the Asian session this morning.
Economic data included 3rd quarter consumer sentiment figures out of New Zealand and 2nd quarter house price figures out of Australia.
On the monetary policy front, the RBA also released its minutes from the 3rd September policy meeting.
Outside of the stats, geopolitical risk continued to influence ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision. For the global financial markets, the risk of U.S retaliation to Iran’s alleged involvement in the Saudi strikes will continue to test risk appetite.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell from 103.5 to 103.1 in the 3rd quarter. According to the 3rd quarter survey,
The Present conditions Index slipped by 106.6 to 106.4, with the Expected Conditions Index falling from 101.4 to 101.0.
For households, the current financial situation sub-index rose from -4.7 to -2.4. Also positive was a rise in the expected financial situation sub-index, from -3.2 to 13.2.
On the negative, however, was sentiment towards the economic outlook. The 1-year economic outlook index fell from -4.6 to -9.2, with the 5-year sub-index falling from 11.9 to -1.1.
In spite of the RBNZ rate cut, household concerns over the economy weighed on spending intentions.
The number of households who said they would spend slumped to its lowest level in 20-years.
By contrast, the number of households who said they would repay debt surged to levels last seen in 2009.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63435 to $0.63411 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.08% to $0.6339.
For the Aussie Dollar
Quarter-on-quarter, house prices fell by 0.7% in the 2nd quarter, following on from a 3% fall in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a fall of 1%.
According to the ABS,
Year-on-year, residential property prices fell by 7.4%
The RBA Meeting Minutes delivered few surprises. Salient points from the minutes included:
News on the international economy had confirmed that risks to the global growth outlook were to the downside.
Trade disputes between the U.S and China had escalated and China’s economy had continued to slow.
Domestically, employment had continued to grow strongly, with the participation rate at a record high.
However, the unemployment rate had remained steady at 5.2%, with wage growth remaining low.
Spare capacity remained in the labor market, with the economy able to sustain lower rates of unemployment and underemployment.
While housing turnover remained low, there had been further signs of improvement in the housing markets.
GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was expected to have been around 0.5%. Private final demand was expected to have been weak.
Looking ahead,
The outlook for output growth was being supported by low-interest rates, recent tax cuts and stabilization in the housing markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector.
Uncertainty over the outlook for consumption growth remained, however.
Inflationary pressures remained subdued but were expected to increase gradually to just over 2% over 2021.
On the policy front,
Members would assess developments in both the international and domestic economies, including labor market conditions.
Further monetary policy easing would be favored if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and achieve the inflation target over time.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68561 to $0.68533 upon release of the figures and minutes. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.20% to $0.6851.
Elsewhere
The Japanese Yen was down by 0.08% to ¥108.21 against the U.S Dollar.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include September ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.
While Germany’s economic sentiment figure is the key driver, we can expect the Eurozone number to influence.
Outside of the numbers, updates from Brexit talks will also provide direction on the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.07% to $1.1009.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction through the day.
Today’s Supreme Court ruling on the lawfulness of suspending Parliament will impact later in the day. Any updates from Johnson’s meetings in Europe and political chatter will also influence.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.10% to $1.2418.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. August industrial production figures are due out this afternoon.
The markets will be looking for an uptick in production to further ease any near-term concerns over the U.S economy.
Outside of the stats, chatter from the Oval Office will need monitoring throughout the day
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 98.643 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s also a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. July manufacturing sales figures are due out later today.
The stats are unlikely to have a material influence on the Loonie.
The Loonie was down by 0.07% at C$1.3249, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing. A pullback in crude oil prices weighed early on in the day.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Salient points from the minutes included: News on the international economy had confirmed that risks to the global growth outlook were to the downside. Further monetary policy easing would be favored if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy and achieve the inflation target over time. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Trump’s Impeachment Inquiry is Just a Distraction U.S. Crude Drops After EIA Shows Inventory Surplus Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – EIA Weekly Storage Report, Contract Expiration to Set Tone The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Economic data included 3rd quarter consumer sentiment figures out of New Zealand and 2nd quarter house price figures out of Australia. On the policy front, Members would assess developments in both the international and domestic economies, including labor market conditions. Key stats include September ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone. | Economic data included 3rd quarter consumer sentiment figures out of New Zealand and 2nd quarter house price figures out of Australia. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busier day ahead on the economic calendar. Outside of the stats, chatter from the Oval Office will need monitoring throughout the day The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 98.643 at the time of writing. | Economic data included 3rd quarter consumer sentiment figures out of New Zealand and 2nd quarter house price figures out of Australia. The 1-year economic outlook index fell from -4.6 to -9.2, with the 5-year sub-index falling from 11.9 to -1.1. GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was expected to have been around 0.5%. | bc9c1d91-946f-4149-a674-87ed7b7a18f1 |
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Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was on the quieter side through the Asian session this morning.
Economic data included August Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand and finalized July industrial production figures out of Japan.
Outside of the stats, the markets reacted further to the ECB monetary policy decision from Thursday and inflation figures from the U.S.
On the geopolitical front, the stage is set for the U.S and China to resume talks next month, which is market positive. As we have seen in the past though, pre-talk tweeting can be market destructive.
For Kiwi Dollar
The NZ Business PMI rose from 48.2 to 48.4 in August.
The PMI survey had yet to be made available at the time of writing.
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64053 to $0.64015 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar up by 0.02% to $0.6407.
For the Japanese Yen
Industrial production increased by 1.3% in July, according to finalized figures, which was in line with prelim and forecast. In June, industrial production had tumbled by 3.3%.
According to finalized figures released by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
Industries that mainly contributed to the increase were:
Motor vehicles
Chemicals (excl. inorganic, organic chemicals, and medicine)
Pulp, paper and paper products.
Industries that mainly contributed to a decreased were:
Inorganic and organic chemicals.
Petroleum and coal products.
Electrical machinery, and information and communication electronics.
Forecasts are for industrial production to fall by 1.6% in September.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥108.137 to ¥108.141 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.14% to ¥108.14 against the U.S Dollar.
Elsewhere
The Aussie Dollar was up by 0.12% to $0.6874, at the time of writing. An easing in geopolitical risk provided support early on.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized August inflation figures out of Spain and July trade and 2nd quarter wage growth figures for the Eurozone.
We can expect wage growth and trade data to have the greatest influence on the EUR.
Outside of the stats, will there be any Trump threats of tariffs following the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday?
On the geopolitical front, there’s Brexit chatter to continue to monitor through the day.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.03% to $1.1068.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction through the day.
What’s next for the British Prime Minister who, until now, has failed at every hurdle since moving into number 10.
Things could go from bad to worse should the English courts also rule that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful… Scotland’s Court of Sessions deemed the suspension unlawful after an appeal to the original ruling that had favored the Brexiteers…
While the Pro-Remainers have racked up a number of victories, news trickling through suggests that the Government is busy in bilateral talks with individual EU member states.
Can Johnson have enough agreements in place to give MPs a vote in favor of a no-deal Brexit come 31st October? Well, a no-deal in the sense of no single deal with the EU…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.12% to $1.2350.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with retail sales, business inventories and consumer sentiment figures due out of the U.S.
We can expect retail sales and consumer sentiment figures to have the most material influence on the Dollar.
Outside of the numbers, Trump’s Twitter account will also need monitoring…
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.03% to 98.336 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada today.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and direction of crude oil prices on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.08% at C$1.3221, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Economic data included August Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand and finalized July industrial production figures out of Japan. Things could go from bad to worse should the English courts also rule that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful… Scotland’s Court of Sessions deemed the suspension unlawful after an appeal to the original ruling that had favored the Brexiteers… While the Pro-Remainers have racked up a number of victories, news trickling through suggests that the Government is busy in bilateral talks with individual EU member states. A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of market risk sentiment and direction of crude oil prices on the day. | Economic data included August Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand and finalized July industrial production figures out of Japan. Key stats include finalized August inflation figures out of Spain and July trade and 2nd quarter wage growth figures for the Eurozone. Across the Pond It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with retail sales, business inventories and consumer sentiment figures due out of the U.S. We can expect retail sales and consumer sentiment figures to have the most material influence on the Dollar. | Economic data included August Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand and finalized July industrial production figures out of Japan. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Across the Pond It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar, with retail sales, business inventories and consumer sentiment figures due out of the U.S. We can expect retail sales and consumer sentiment figures to have the most material influence on the Dollar. | Economic data included August Business PMI numbers out of New Zealand and finalized July industrial production figures out of Japan. Outside of the stats, the markets reacted further to the ECB monetary policy decision from Thursday and inflation figures from the U.S. On the geopolitical front, the stage is set for the U.S and China to resume talks next month, which is market positive. The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.64053 to $0.64015 upon release of the figures. | 31cd53d0-54f8-4693-bbfc-16a81c287ec2 |
709194.0 | 2019-09-10 00:00:00 UTC | A light Economic Calendar Leaves Brexit and the ECB in Focus | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-light-economic-calendar-leaves-brexit-and-the-ecb-in-focus-2019-09-11 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was on the lighter side through the Asian session this morning. Key stats included 3rd quarter BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions figures and September consumer sentiment numbers out of Australia.
For the Japanese Yen
The BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index increased from -10.4 to -0.2 in the 3rd quarter.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥107.562 to ¥107.564 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.05% to ¥107.59 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 1.7% to 98.2 in September, partially reversing a 3.6% rise in August. According to the Westpac report,
The pullback was attributed to concerns over the near-term economic outlook and pressure on family finances. Two consecutive RBA rate cuts in the summer and tax refunds failed to provide support.
Looking at the numbers:
The sub-index for family finances vs a year ago fell by 2.5%, with finances for next 12-months down by 2.2%.
Economic conditions next 12-months slid by 3.1%, while economic conditions next 5-years was up by 2.1%. The next 12-months sub-index was down 7.6% year-on-year, while next 5-years was up by 2.7%.
The time to buy a major household item sub-index fell by 2.8%.
On the labor market front, the Unemployment Expectations Index rose by 0.2% and was up by 10.6% year-on-year.
The Time to buy a dwelling index fell by 2.9%, whilst rising by 19.1% over the year, supported by a 3.9% rise in the House Price Expectations Index.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68628 to $0.68530 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down 0.15% to $0.6851.
The deterioration in consumer sentiment will be of concern to the RBA, who continues to raise uncertainties over household spending.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.22% to $0.6412.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone today. A lack of stats will leave the markets to consider how far the ECB and FED will go to appease the markets’ demands for support.
On the geopolitical front, Brexit chatter will continue to be in focus, with time running out for British Prime Minister Johnson.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.1048.
For the Pound
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats to provide the Pound with direction through the day.
With the BoE monetary policy decision next week, the markets will have an opportunity to consider the stats from the start of the week. Brexit uncertainty continues to pressure the Pound and the UK economy, however, which questions what lies ahead. With a stalling economy and a possible further extension to Brexit, can the BoE continue to stand pat?
On the geopolitical front, Brexit chatter will ultimately be the key driver on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.02% to $1.2348.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with data limited to August wholesale inflation figures.
Any pickup in inflationary pressures will likely have a relatively muted impact on the Greenback. A modest pickup in inflationary pressure is unlikely to change the FED’s course on monetary policy.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 98.366.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada.
The lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands OPEC and crude oil prices later this afternoon. While hopes of the U.S and China making progress in trade talks are positive, OPEC’s production intentions and outlook on demand will influence on the day.
The Loonie was up by 0.05% at C$1.3146, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included 3rd quarter BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions figures and September consumer sentiment numbers out of Australia. While hopes of the U.S and China making progress in trade talks are positive, OPEC’s production intentions and outlook on demand will influence on the day. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Central Bank Doves: Fed Takes Additional Insurance, PBOC Reluctantly Trims The Crypto Daily – Movers and Shakers -22/09/19 Ethereum & Stellar’s Lumen Daily Tech Analysis – 23/09/19 The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Key stats included 3rd quarter BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions figures and September consumer sentiment numbers out of Australia. For the Japanese Yen The BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions Index increased from -10.4 to -0.2 in the 3rd quarter. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone today. | The Time to buy a dwelling index fell by 2.9%, whilst rising by 19.1% over the year, supported by a 3.9% rise in the House Price Expectations Index. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of the Eurozone today. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada. | Economic conditions next 12-months slid by 3.1%, while economic conditions next 5-years was up by 2.1%. At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.04% to 98.366. For the Loonie It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out of Canada. | 8ddf02bf-ec0a-4510-964c-e936c3cd27e4 |
709195.0 | 2019-09-01 00:00:00 UTC | China Data Provides Support as Focus Shifts to the EUR and GBP | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-data-provides-support-as-focus-shifts-to-the-eur-and-gbp-2019-09-02 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was on the busier side through the Asian session this morning. Key stats included August manufacturing numbers out of China, Australia, and Japan. 2nd quarter capital spending out of Japan and 2nd quarter company gross operating profit figures out of Australia also provided direction.
Economic data from China over the weekend had weighed on risk appetite ahead of the more influential Caixin PMI.
For the Japanese Yen
Capital Spending rose by 1.9% in the 2nd quarter, following on from a 6.1% rise in the 1st quarter.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.114 to ¥106.163 upon release of the figures, which preceded August’s manufacturing PMI.
August’s Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.3, which was worse than a prelim and forecast 49.5 and July 49.4. According to the Markit PMI Survey,
The deterioration in the manufacturing sector was among the strongest seen over the last 3-years.
New business declined at the fastest pace in 5-months, with businesses highlighting China as a particular source of weakness.
Employment was the only positive in August, with firms continuing to hire in spite of softer new orders.
The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.196 to ¥106.124 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.09% to ¥106.18 against the U.S Dollar.
For the Aussie Dollar
The AIG Manufacturing Index rose from 51.3 to 53.1 in August. According to the latest survey,
The increase in August came off the back of rising production levels and a pickup in exports.
Looking at the sub-indexes, the exports sub-index rose by 1.1 points to 55.7, with the production sub-index rising by 4.9 points to 43.2.
News orders saw a minor increase, rising by 0.3 points to 53.3.
While average wages increased by 3.4 points to 60.3, the employment sub-index fell by 1.8 points to 51.4.
By sector, machinery & equipment was the only sector to record a pick up in activity, with the PMI rising by 1.6 points to 52.5. The 12-month average stood at 49.9.
Food & beverages recorded the largest monthly decline, with a 1.7 point fall to 55.8.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67262 to $0.67287 upon release of the figures, which preceded operating profit figures and China’s manufacturing PMI.
Company Gross Operating Profits jumped by 4.5%, quarter-on-quarter, in the 2nd quarter, following an upwardly revised 2.6% increase in the 1st quarter. Economists had forecast a 2.0% increase. According to the ABS, a 10.9% surge in mining sector company profits supported the uptick.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67268 to $0.67257 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s Manufacturing PMI.
Out of China
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 to 50.4 in August, coming in ahead of a forecasted 49.8. According to the Markit PMI survey,
Firms registered the quickest increase in production in 5-months.
New orders held steady, whilst new export orders saw a faster pace of decline.
Falling prices for raw materials led to a renewed fall in input prices, with the rate of decline the joint-quickest since Jan-16.
Output prices fell at the steepest pace since Dec-16 as a result of lower input prices and efforts to stimulate sales.
In spite of the pickup in production, sentiment towards the next 12-months fell to among the lowest levels in the series history.
Concerns over the U.S – China trade war and evidence of weaker global economic conditions weighed.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67257 to $0.67348 upon release of the survey. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.04% to $0.6729.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.38% to $0.6304. The risk-off sentiment from the start of the session left the Kiwi deep in the red early on but should find support from China’s PMI.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats through the day include Manufacturing PMIs out of Spain and Italy. Finalized August manufacturing PMIs are also due out of France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
Barring any deviation to Germany’s PMI, We would expect Italy and the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMIs to have the greatest influence on the day.
Outside of the numbers, Brexit and trade war chatter and updates from Italy will also provide direction.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.08% to $1.0991.
For the Pound
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the data front. Economic data is limited to August’s Manufacturing PMI.
While we expect the numbers to influence the Pound, the market focus will remain on Brexit chatter throughout the day.
There’s one day remaining before MPs return from the summer recess and the political climate has certainly changed since the start of the summer.
Johnson has obtained agreement to suspend Parliament and Pro-Remainers are, not only looking to block it but also oust the British PM. It remains to be seen whether either are achievable…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.02% to $1.2158.
Across the Pond
It’s a quiet day on the economic calendar, with the U.S markets closed for the day.
A lack of stats will leave the Dollar in the hands of market sentiment towards trade and monetary policy on the day.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.10% to 98.821.
For the Loonie
It’s also a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar, with Canada also on holiday.
Market risk sentiment, this morning’s China manufacturing PMI and influence on crude oil prices will provide the Loonie with direction.
The Loonie was down by 0.04% at C$1.3316, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | The risk-off sentiment from the start of the session left the Kiwi deep in the red early on but should find support from China’s PMI. Market risk sentiment, this morning’s China manufacturing PMI and influence on crude oil prices will provide the Loonie with direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Silver – Soft September After Super Summer AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar running into resistance Crude Oil Climbs for a Fifth Successive Day, OPEC Next The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | 2nd quarter capital spending out of Japan and 2nd quarter company gross operating profit figures out of Australia also provided direction. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67262 to $0.67287 upon release of the figures, which preceded operating profit figures and China’s manufacturing PMI. Market risk sentiment, this morning’s China manufacturing PMI and influence on crude oil prices will provide the Loonie with direction. | The Japanese Yen moved from ¥106.114 to ¥106.163 upon release of the figures, which preceded August’s manufacturing PMI. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67262 to $0.67287 upon release of the figures, which preceded operating profit figures and China’s manufacturing PMI. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67268 to $0.67257 upon release of the figures that preceded China’s Manufacturing PMI. | While average wages increased by 3.4 points to 60.3, the employment sub-index fell by 1.8 points to 51.4. Out of China The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 to 50.4 in August, coming in ahead of a forecasted 49.8. Market risk sentiment, this morning’s China manufacturing PMI and influence on crude oil prices will provide the Loonie with direction. | 85415605-cfd8-4a86-9164-5eda89713232 |
709196.0 | 2019-08-25 00:00:00 UTC | Trade War Jitters to Fuel Safe Haven Demand and Overshadow the Stats | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trade-war-jitters-to-fuel-safe-haven-demand-and-overshadow-the-stats-2019-08-26 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
The economic calendar was on the lighter side through the Asian session this morning. Stats were limited to New Zealand July trade figures.
Outside of the numbers, the Asian market reacted to the escalation in the U.S – China trade war on Friday and Trump’s Twitter tantrum.
Updates from the G7 Summit also influenced through the early part of the session.
For the Kiwi Dollar
The trade deficit widened from a revised NZ$4,980m to NZ$5,460m, year-on-year, in July. Month-on-month, the trade balance slumped from an NZ$331m surplus to an NZ$685m deficit.
According to NZ Stats,
Goods import values increased by NZ$173m (3.1%), while the total value of goods exports fell by NZ$309m (5.8%)
The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63475 to $0.63498 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.70% to $0.6360.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.44% to ¥104.93 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.75% to $0.6705 at the time of writing.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s Ifo business sentiment figures are due out later this morning.
Last week, Germany’s private sector PMI surveys revealed a marked deterioration in optimism, suggesting EUR negative numbers.
An escalation in the U.S – China trade war last Friday will not have helped sentiment mid-way through the 3rd quarter.
While the numbers are EUR negative, the Dollar could be in for another bashing should any updates from the G7 Summit suggest more tantrums to come.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1145.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK, with the UK on holiday.
The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of Brexit chatter and further MP reaction to Boris Johnson’s brief visit to Europe.
Ultimately a lack of progress leaves Johnson exposed and Corbyn will be looking to garner the necessary support to win a vote of no-confidence next week.
Brexit chatter from the G7 Summit and Johnson’s inquiry into the legalities of shutting down Parliament for 5-weeks also needs consideration.
At the time of writing, the Pound down by 0.02% to $1.2263.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar, but not without influence.
Following last week’s private sector PMI numbers that revealed a first contraction in the manufacturing sector since Sep-09, we can expect plenty of sensitivity to today’s numbers.
July durable goods orders are due out later this afternoon. Weak numbers would further support the market’s pricing in of a September rate cut. Throw in Trump’s Twitter tantrums and effects on the Dollar and the U.S President may have found a way to sink the Greenback without the help of the FED…
Outside of the numbers, the markets will look for any chatter on trade and also news from the G7 Summit.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 97.619.
For the Loonie
It’s a day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out of Canada. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie vulnerable to any further slide in crude oil prices.
Market risk sentiment will influence on the day.
The Loonie was down by 0.23% at C$1.3314, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Last week, Germany’s private sector PMI surveys revealed a marked deterioration in optimism, suggesting EUR negative numbers. Throw in Trump’s Twitter tantrums and effects on the Dollar and the U.S President may have found a way to sink the Greenback without the help of the FED… Outside of the numbers, the markets will look for any chatter on trade and also news from the G7 Summit. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 7638.25, Weakens Under 7602.75 Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets rally significantly during trading session Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude oil breaks down again The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, the Asian market reacted to the escalation in the U.S – China trade war on Friday and Trump’s Twitter tantrum. Last week, Germany’s private sector PMI surveys revealed a marked deterioration in optimism, suggesting EUR negative numbers. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 7638.25, Weakens Under 7602.75 Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets rally significantly during trading session Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude oil breaks down again The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to NZ Stats, Goods import values increased by NZ$173m (3.1%), while the total value of goods exports fell by NZ$309m (5.8%) The Kiwi Dollar moved from $0.63475 to $0.63498 upon release of the figures. Elsewhere At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.44% to ¥104.93 against the U.S Dollar, while the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.75% to $0.6705 at the time of writing. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 7638.25, Weakens Under 7602.75 Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets rally significantly during trading session Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude oil breaks down again The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Outside of the numbers, the Asian market reacted to the escalation in the U.S – China trade war on Friday and Trump’s Twitter tantrum. At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1145. The lack of stats will leave the Loonie vulnerable to any further slide in crude oil prices. | 32e9af09-cfdd-4e97-ad34-40b8497d2b3a |
709197.0 | 2019-08-21 00:00:00 UTC | Forex Daily Recap – DXY Kept Hold Gains Post-Release of FOMC Minutes | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/forex-daily-recap-dxy-kept-hold-gains-post-release-of-fomc-minutes-2019-08-21 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
USD Index
Greenback continued to linger in the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, keeping intact accumulated gains.
US Dollar Index 1 Day 21 August 2019
Later the day, the July FOMC meeting minutes came out at around 18:00 GMT. The policymakers indicated that the last rate cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment”. The Fed officials also added that the rate cut shouldn’t be taken as a “pre-set course” for future cuts. Quite surprisingly, the minutes also noted that few members wanted a 50 bps cut, based primarily on the weak inflation readings.
GBP/USD
Cable continued to stay consolidated near 1.1264 level on Wednesday. Red Ichimoku Clouds and adjoining base line of the indicator were hovering above the pair. Anyhow, the conversion line stood well below the GBP/USD pair, pouring cold water over the bearish sentiment. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was taking rounds near 37/41 range level, upkeeping a neutral market perspective.
GBPUSD 1 Day 21 August 2019
At around 08:30 GMT, the UK July Public Sector Net Borrowing came out, disappointing the market participants. The Net Borrowing recorded near £-1.971 billion over £-2.650 billion estimates.
Meantime, today, German Spokesperson, Steffen Seibert proclaimed, “Germany prepares to accept a disorderly Brexit, considering the realities.” The Spokesperson also added that the country always would prefer an orderly Brexit. However, Steffen highlights the importance of accepting the reality in case of an unavoidable no deal EU-UK divorce.
AUD/USD
The daily volatility in the Aussie pair remained choppy as the day was approaching closing. Notably, the AUD/USD pair had opened up near 0.6778 level and was +0.15% up in the North American session. Earlier the day, the July MoM Westpac Leading Index reported upbeat data this time. The Leading Index recorded 0.14% over the prior -0.08%.
AUDUSD 1 Day 21 August 2019
Anyhow, the bulls appeared quite out-of-mood to make some rigorous moves today. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair stood underway struggle to breach above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level or 0.6818 level. Ability to break above aforementioned resistance handle would immediately activate the upside barriers near 0.7037 and 0.7075 marks. Additionally, the Stochastic line (%K) was showing resilient movement, moving above the %D line of the indicator, pleasing the buyers.
USD/CAD
After testing the sturdy 1.3323 resistance, the Loonie pair was heading downside into the red Ichimoku Clouds. Here, the Clouds were acting as a strong support region, disallowing the bears’ entry. Also, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD technical indicator appeared to look south side today.
USDCAD 1 Day 21 August 2019
Anyhow, the below-lying Parabolic SAR helped to keep the tempo higher, providing near-term hopes to the bulls. Upbeat July Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained as the primary driver that lifted the CAD currency. However, such a price action had an inverse impact on the Loonie pair allowing the bears to take over the pair. The July YoY BoC CPI Core rose 0.3% over the previous 0.0%. Also, the MoM CPI data surged 0.2% in comparison to the prior 0.1%.
On the other hand, the Crude prices also grew, further pushing down the USD/CAD pair. Today, EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 16, published -2.732 million over -1.889 million forecasts. Hence, the inventories drop signaled for a rise in the demand for the commodity, allowing a price upsurge.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | FXEmpire.com - USD Index Greenback continued to linger in the upper vicinity of the Bollinger Bands, keeping intact accumulated gains. USDCAD 1 Day 21 August 2019 Anyhow, the below-lying Parabolic SAR helped to keep the tempo higher, providing near-term hopes to the bulls. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Traders Focused on EIA Storage Report Gold down as US and China Agree on a ‘Calm Attitude,’ Silver Extends Rally Investors unimpressed by Wall Street Rally The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Earlier the day, the July MoM Westpac Leading Index reported upbeat data this time. Also, the MACD line and the signal line of the MACD technical indicator appeared to look south side today. Upbeat July Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained as the primary driver that lifted the CAD currency. | US Dollar Index 1 Day 21 August 2019 Later the day, the July FOMC meeting minutes came out at around 18:00 GMT. Earlier the day, the July MoM Westpac Leading Index reported upbeat data this time. However, such a price action had an inverse impact on the Loonie pair allowing the bears to take over the pair. | The Fed officials also added that the rate cut shouldn’t be taken as a “pre-set course” for future cuts. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair stood underway struggle to breach above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level or 0.6818 level. However, such a price action had an inverse impact on the Loonie pair allowing the bears to take over the pair. | 27c36437-9398-4638-8ceb-66ee3e37c7cf |
709198.0 | 2019-08-13 00:00:00 UTC | China Stats Disappoint ahead of German GDP and UK Inflation Figures | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/china-stats-disappoint-ahead-of-german-gdp-and-uk-inflation-figures-2019-08-14 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was busier Asian session on the economic calendar this morning.
Economic data through the session included August consumer sentiment and 2nd quarter wage growth figures out of Australia. Later in the morning, July fixed asset investment, industrial production and unemployment numbers also provided direction.
Outside of the numbers, the markets responded to Trump’s tariff delay to 15th December on certain goods from China.
For the Aussie Dollar
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 3.6% to 100.0 in August, following on from a 4.1% slide in July. According to the Westpac report,
The upswing was attributed to a calming of the nerves, with the RBA standing pat on monetary policy following 2 consecutive rate cuts.
Looking at the numbers:
The sub-index for family finances vs a year ago rose by 0.9%, with finances for next 12-months up by 0.7%.
Economic conditions next 12-months jumped by 9.6%, with economic conditions next 5-years up by 4.5%. Both sub-indexes remained well below levels from a year ago, however.
The time to buy a major household item sub-index rose by a more modest 2.8% and was the only sub-index to be up year-on-year.
On the labor market front, the Unemployment Expectations Index eased by 0.8%, whilst up by 3.1% year-on-year.
The Time to buy a dwelling index rose by 3%, making it a 16.7% gain over the year, supported by a 5.1% rise in the House Price Expectations Index.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67939 to $0.67951 upon release of the figures, which preceded the wage growth numbers and stats out of China.
Wages grew by 0.6% in the 2nd quarter, which was up from the 1st quarter and forecasted 0.5% rise. According to the ABS,
Private sector wage growth stood at 0.5%, while public sector wage growth jumped by 0.8% in the 2nd
Year-on-year, wages grew by 2.3%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67990 to $0.67943 upon release of the figures, which preceded the stats out of China.
Out of China
Fixed asset investments rose by 5.7% in July, year-on-year, falling short of a forecast and June 5.8% rise. Of greater significance, however, were industrial production figures. Year-on-year, industrial production increased by 4.8%, down from 6.3% in June. Economists had forecast a 6.0% rise. Year-to-date, production was up by 5.8% to July, year-on-year, also falling short of a forecasted and June 6% rise.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67912 to $67881 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down 0.18% to $0.6787.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was up by 0.43% to ¥106.28 against the U.S Dollar, While the Kiwi Dollar was down by 0.02% to $0.6453.
In the Asian equity markets, the U.S administration tariff delay provided support through the early part of the day. In spite of continued unrest, the Hang Seng and CSI300 led the way early, rising by 1.08% and 1.17% respectively. The Nikkei wasn’t far behind, up by 0.84% at the time of writing. The ASX200 saw a more modest 0.12% gain. Economic data out of China pinned back the majors early in the session.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany’s 1st estimate GDP numbers for the 2nd quarter are due out in the early part of the day.
A larger than forecasted contraction would have a material impact on the EUR. Barring a material deviation from 1st estimate numbers, the Eurozone GDP figures will unlikely influence.
While we would expect finalized July inflation figures out of France to also have a muted impact, the Eurozone’s June industrial production numbers will provide direction.
Outside of the numbers, geopolitical risk will continue to have an impact on the EUR.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1175.
For the Pound
It’s another busy day ahead on the data front. July inflation figures are due out of the UK later this morning.
As the UK economy heads towards a technical recession, any softer inflationary pressures would further raise the prospects of a BoE move.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.07% to $1.2052.
Across the Pond
It’s also a relatively quiet day for the Greenback. Key stats due out of the U.S later today include import and export price index numbers for July.
We would expect the numbers to have a relatively muted impact on the Greenback, as the markets respond further to chatter from the Oval Office.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down by 0.02% to 97.788.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet ahead on the economic calendar, with no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
The weekly EIA crude oil inventory numbers and stats out of China from earlier in the day will be the key drivers.
The Loonie was up down 0.03% at C$1.3227, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | According to the Westpac report, The upswing was attributed to a calming of the nerves, with the RBA standing pat on monetary policy following 2 consecutive rate cuts. While we would expect finalized July inflation figures out of France to also have a muted impact, the Eurozone’s June industrial production numbers will provide direction. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Melting Hopes: What Emerged in The Fed’s Minutes E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – August 22, 2019 Forecast AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – August 22, 2019 Forecast The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | Economic data through the session included August consumer sentiment and 2nd quarter wage growth figures out of Australia. Later in the morning, July fixed asset investment, industrial production and unemployment numbers also provided direction. Out of China Fixed asset investments rose by 5.7% in July, year-on-year, falling short of a forecast and June 5.8% rise. | The Time to buy a dwelling index rose by 3%, making it a 16.7% gain over the year, supported by a 5.1% rise in the House Price Expectations Index. The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67939 to $0.67951 upon release of the figures, which preceded the wage growth numbers and stats out of China. While we would expect finalized July inflation figures out of France to also have a muted impact, the Eurozone’s June industrial production numbers will provide direction. | For the Aussie Dollar The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 3.6% to 100.0 in August, following on from a 4.1% slide in July. The time to buy a major household item sub-index rose by a more modest 2.8% and was the only sub-index to be up year-on-year. While we would expect finalized July inflation figures out of France to also have a muted impact, the Eurozone’s June industrial production numbers will provide direction. | 7ed9ba29-a229-45ef-bbd6-b43eb213cd99 |
709199.0 | 2019-08-12 00:00:00 UTC | Economic Data Put the EUR and the GBP in Focus… | DBO | https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/economic-data-put-the-eur-and-the-gbp-in-focus...-2019-08-13 | nan | nan | FXEmpire.com -
Earlier in the Day:
It was another relatively quiet Asian session on the economic calendar this morning.
Economic data through the session was limited to Australia’s NAB Business Confidence figures for July.
Outside of the numbers, we expect the Yuan and any chatter from Washington and Beijing on trade to remain the key driver.
With the global financial markets sensitive to geopolitical chatter, any further hint of an Italian snap election could also test risk sentiment. With Italy having the 9th largest economy, political disruption amidst the current economic climate won’t be a good thing.
For the Aussie Dollar Dollar
The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from 2 to 4 in July, coming in ahead of a forecasted rise to 3. According to the latest survey,
Following a deterioration in business confidence, forward indicators continue to paint a bleak picture near-term.
In July, confidence saw a marginal improvement after a slide in June, while conditions saw a further decline.
Forward orders sat well below their long-run average and in negative territory.
While capacity utilization recovered to around the long-run average, employment conditions worsened.
Looking at the sub-indexes:
Business conditions slipped from 4 to 2, with the trading sub-index falling from 7 to 6 and the employment index falling from 5 to 0. The profitability index recovered from -1 to 0 in the month.
The exports sub-index fell from 1 to 0.
On the positive front, there was some evidence of price pressure. The purchase costs sub-index rose from 0.7 to 1.0, with the final products prices sub-index rising from 0.2 to 0.5.
For the RBA, the survey continues to point to weakness in the retail sector. The NBA survey noted that weak household income growth and high debt levels remain a contributory factor.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.67560 to $0.67605 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was up by 0.12% to $0.6760.
Elsewhere
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.07% to ¥105.37 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.08% to $0.6453.
In the Asian equity markets, it was risk-off early in the session, as the majors responded to the U.S slide from Monday. The Nikkei led the way early, sliding by 1.21%. While the Hang Seng and CSI300 were down by 0.86% and 0.57% respectively, the ASX200 was down by a more modest 0.09%.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Germany and the Eurozone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment figures will be the key driver. Finalized July inflation numbers out of Spain and Germany will likely have a muted impact on the day.
While we can expect the numbers to have an impact, geopolitics will also be in focus. While the U.S – China trade war will remain the key driver, further updates from Italy will also influence on the day. And there’s HK to factor in…
At the time of writing, the EUR was down by 0.05% to $1.1208.
For the Pound
It’s a busy day ahead on the data front. Wage growth and employment figures are due out of the UK later this morning.
While we will expect wage growth to have an impact, July’s claimant count figure will likely have the greatest impact early on.
With economic indicators now flashing red, weak numbers today would weigh heavily on an already defensive Pound. Sub-$1.20 levels wouldn’t be far fetched ahead of tomorrow’s inflation figures.
Barring any chatter on Brexit, sentiment towards the UK economy will provide the Pound with direction on the day.
At the time of writing, the Pound was down by 0.01% to $1.2075.
Across the Pond
It’s a relatively quiet day for the Greenback. Key stats due out of the U.S later today include July inflation figures.
We can expect the Dollar to be sensitive to any easing in inflationary pressures. Negative sentiment towards the U.S economy, fueled by the escalation in the U.S – China trade war, has raised the prospects of another FED rate cut.
Outside of the numbers, expect any chatter from the Oval Office to also provide direction on the day.
At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.08% to 97.457.
For the Loonie
It’s another quiet ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out to provide the Loonie with direction.
While there are no material stats, OPEC’s monthly report will likely garner plenty of interest. With the Saudis looking to stabilize crude oil prices, the focus will be on whether there is any intention to rebalance output.
The Loonie was up by 0.01% at C$1.3238, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.
This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | With the global financial markets sensitive to geopolitical chatter, any further hint of an Italian snap election could also test risk sentiment. The NBA survey noted that weak household income growth and high debt levels remain a contributory factor. Negative sentiment towards the U.S economy, fueled by the escalation in the U.S – China trade war, has raised the prospects of another FED rate cut. | For the Aussie Dollar Dollar The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from 2 to 4 in July, coming in ahead of a forecasted rise to 3. According to the latest survey, Following a deterioration in business confidence, forward indicators continue to paint a bleak picture near-term. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets dip to find support Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Waiting on Fed Minutes, but Ripe for Break into Value Zone E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – August 21, 2019 Forecast The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar Dollar The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from 2 to 4 in July, coming in ahead of a forecasted rise to 3. The Day Ahead: For the EUR It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. This article was originally posted on FX Empire More From FXEMPIRE: Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets dip to find support Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Waiting on Fed Minutes, but Ripe for Break into Value Zone E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – August 21, 2019 Forecast The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. | For the Aussie Dollar Dollar The NAB Business Confidence Index rose from 2 to 4 in July, coming in ahead of a forecasted rise to 3. While we can expect the numbers to have an impact, geopolitics will also be in focus. Key stats due out of the U.S later today include July inflation figures. | 8456fece-246f-478b-a731-b680e147d91c |
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