FOReCAst_dev.jsonl

{"id": "ec00ba7a", "question": "Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-06-02", "created_time": "2016-02-22", "confidence": 0.5939}
{"id": "36371cb3", "question": "Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-03", "created_time": "2016-03-11", "confidence": 0.7003}
{"id": "0c915a0e", "question": "Will Planet Nine be found in 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-01", "created_time": "2016-03-18", "confidence": 0.5206}
{"id": "29213bad", "question": "Will the Xenon1T experiment discover WIMP dark matter?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-03", "created_time": "2016-03-30", "confidence": 0.649}
{"id": "ac5aa863", "question": "Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-02-22", "created_time": "2016-03-30", "confidence": 0.5361}
{"id": "17fa3593", "question": "A is in the I of the beholder #1: Wait, is this video for real?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-11-16", "created_time": "2016-04-05", "confidence": 0.3616}
{"id": "0655b1c8", "question": "Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-11-09", "created_time": "2016-05-05", "confidence": 0.7069}
{"id": "1a538c10", "question": "Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2016-05-13", "confidence": 0.3579}
{"id": "faaecc01", "question": "Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-06-19", "created_time": "2016-05-27", "confidence": 0.6333}
{"id": "7285aed9", "question": "Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-04", "created_time": "2016-06-27", "confidence": 0.7235}
{"id": "c535abc8", "question": "Will a personal computer based on \"The Machine\" technology be put to market by end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2016-06-29", "confidence": 0.6756}
{"id": "d52d4642", "question": "Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2016-10-14", "confidence": 0.4945}
{"id": "5c5897a4", "question": "When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2025-01-01 00:00:00+00:00", "resolution_time": "2025-01-03", "created_time": "2016-12-31", "confidence": 0.38}
{"id": "1e74ead5", "question": "When will the first exaflop performer appear?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-05-30", "resolution_time": "2022-05-30", "created_time": "2017-01-05", "confidence": 0.5017}
{"id": "aa516539", "question": "How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2020-07-13", "created_time": "2017-01-17", "confidence": 0.5083}
{"id": "8f62409b", "question": "Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-01", "created_time": "2017-08-24", "confidence": 0.6416}
{"id": "4d894bd5", "question": "What will be the value of a bitcoin on Nov. 1, 2017?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6439", "resolution_time": "2017-11-02", "created_time": "2017-08-30", "confidence": 0.4856}
{"id": "55b07391", "question": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-10-02", "created_time": "2017-10-02", "confidence": 0.69}
{"id": "3d73e14f", "question": "The End of NAFTA?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-07-01", "created_time": "2017-10-21", "confidence": 0.3496}
{"id": "bdf3d2eb", "question": "By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-22", "created_time": "2018-02-24", "confidence": 0.7202}
{"id": "2175c580", "question": "Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-10-07", "created_time": "2018-02-27", "confidence": 0.5117}
{"id": "82449d46", "question": "Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-09", "created_time": "2018-03-19", "confidence": 0.6926}
{"id": "43d58744", "question": "How many seats in the US House will Democrats control in 2018?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "235", "resolution_time": "2018-12-03", "created_time": "2018-05-02", "confidence": 0.6407}
{"id": "bd79db67", "question": "Will Germany win the FIFA World Cup?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-06-27", "created_time": "2018-06-13", "confidence": 0.677}
{"id": "4ec3cf52", "question": "Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-07-23", "created_time": "2018-07-20", "confidence": 0.5595}
{"id": "d9576581", "question": "When will George R. R. Martin's \"The Winds of Winter\" be released?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2018-08-07", "confidence": 0.5736}
{"id": "fda46d9d", "question": "Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-03", "created_time": "2018-08-20", "confidence": 0.721}
{"id": "f8a0be66", "question": "Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-05-17", "created_time": "2018-11-15", "confidence": 0.2881}
{"id": "12ad57ef", "question": "Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-29", "created_time": "2018-02-09", "confidence": 0.5852}
{"id": "31c1b240", "question": "Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-05-18", "created_time": "2018-12-02", "confidence": 0.6029}
{"id": "33f38a7c", "question": "Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-03-04", "created_time": "2018-12-03", "confidence": 0.4287}
{"id": "76be4b9e", "question": "Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2018-12-09", "confidence": 0.6882}
{"id": "55b0b7b3", "question": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2018-12-11", "confidence": 0.6419}
{"id": "f19342bb", "question": "Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-05-08", "created_time": "2018-12-12", "confidence": 0.362}
{"id": "ac200ebe", "question": "Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2018-12-19", "confidence": 0.5449}
{"id": "a70ff340", "question": "Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2018-12-22", "confidence": 0.6494}
{"id": "837aeb34", "question": "If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-02-06", "created_time": "2018-12-28", "confidence": 0.678}
{"id": "a011702f", "question": "Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2019-01-24", "confidence": 0.6444}
{"id": "1e798fbb", "question": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-04-15", "resolution_time": "2022-06-09", "created_time": "2019-01-30", "confidence": 0.6158}
{"id": "fe48b268", "question": "Will the US government shut down on February 16th?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-02-15", "created_time": "2019-02-08", "confidence": 0.5803}
{"id": "73789d56", "question": "If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2021-07-19", "created_time": "2019-02-17", "confidence": 0.5101}
{"id": "842cd249", "question": "Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-04", "created_time": "2019-02-21", "confidence": 0.6539}
{"id": "af6444e2", "question": "Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2019-03-27", "confidence": 0.704}
{"id": "dd54ec58", "question": "Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-11-14", "created_time": "2019-07-11", "confidence": 0.5957}
{"id": "29723710", "question": "By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-05-03", "created_time": "2019-08-05", "confidence": 0.2215}
{"id": "a9101ea5", "question": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-18", "created_time": "2019-09-17", "confidence": 0.6744}
{"id": "0acbb603", "question": "How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "33926000", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2019-11-17", "confidence": 0.6954}
{"id": "5e4564f3", "question": "How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2020-02-07", "created_time": "2019-11-28", "confidence": 0.6771}
{"id": "f6ed80f3", "question": "Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2019-12-24", "confidence": 0.668}
{"id": "23046c48", "question": "How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "306", "resolution_time": "2021-01-09", "created_time": "2020-01-10", "confidence": 0.6329}
{"id": "dc707f4a", "question": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-03", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.6151}
{"id": "cf7f2f2d", "question": "Will Prediction Markets judge the Democratic primary to be settled after Super Tuesday?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-03-10", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.5119}
{"id": "c90f8db1", "question": "Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-22", "created_time": "2020-01-17", "confidence": 0.305}
{"id": "c32847de", "question": "If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-24", "created_time": "2020-02-08", "confidence": 0.6979}
{"id": "b9cbabfd", "question": "Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-01", "created_time": "2020-02-15", "confidence": 0.5937}
{"id": "f3ab7b0d", "question": "Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-11", "created_time": "2020-02-18", "confidence": 0.7028}
{"id": "5b8604a7", "question": "For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2020-03-26", "created_time": "2020-02-22", "confidence": 0.564}
{"id": "a45b5f0e", "question": "If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5673571", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-02-22", "confidence": 0.6311}
{"id": "625952ab", "question": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-03-14", "confidence": 0.656}
{"id": "d101da67", "question": "On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be \"very worried\" about the coronavirus's effect on the U.S. economy?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "57", "resolution_time": "2020-05-01", "created_time": "2020-04-06", "confidence": 0.7156}
{"id": "44ff1f99", "question": "What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "21", "resolution_time": "2020-06-05", "created_time": "2020-04-24", "confidence": 0.4778}
{"id": "2fb8fc57", "question": "Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-07-01", "created_time": "2020-05-12", "confidence": 0.7195}
{"id": "c7a59506", "question": "Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-16", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.3981}
{"id": "0a5fb7af", "question": "Will J.K. Rowling's \"The Ickabog\" reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk's bestseller list within a week of its release?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-19", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.2916}
{"id": "1539deae", "question": "What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2020-10-29", "created_time": "2020-06-05", "confidence": 0.6248}
{"id": "fa6cac08", "question": "Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-14", "created_time": "2020-06-07", "confidence": 0.4885}
{"id": "82134141", "question": "How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2020-12-09", "created_time": "2020-06-08", "confidence": 0.7407}
{"id": "b6c361b1", "question": "How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "203660000", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-06-19", "confidence": 0.7353}
{"id": "18c67eb9", "question": "In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-18", "created_time": "2020-07-06", "confidence": 0.7054}
{"id": "1d249eb5", "question": "Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-07-08", "confidence": 0.5549}
{"id": "fc1a8d05", "question": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "49", "resolution_time": "2024-11-06", "created_time": "2020-07-19", "confidence": 0.7679}
{"id": "4838f805", "question": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-06-23 08:00:00+00:00", "resolution_time": "2022-11-06", "created_time": "2020-07-23", "confidence": 0.6305}
{"id": "109f14bf", "question": "Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-07-31", "confidence": 0.7036}
{"id": "89fe3a60", "question": "Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-01", "created_time": "2020-08-02", "confidence": 0.6755}
{"id": "cdb0973c", "question": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-22", "created_time": "2020-08-05", "confidence": 0.7088}
{"id": "394e7579", "question": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-11", "created_time": "2020-08-12", "confidence": 0.6473}
{"id": "ce5de1a1", "question": "[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-10-12", "created_time": "2020-08-27", "confidence": 0.6996}
{"id": "f5d0ffaf", "question": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-11-19", "created_time": "2020-08-27", "confidence": 0.6776}
{"id": "f121f746", "question": "How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "30", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-08-29", "confidence": 0.5839}
{"id": "4e98d1c1", "question": "How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2020-12-15", "created_time": "2020-09-10", "confidence": 0.6154}
{"id": "d7521215", "question": "[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-10-27", "created_time": "2020-09-22", "confidence": 0.6489}
{"id": "f8570844", "question": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-10", "created_time": "2020-09-29", "confidence": 0.5863}
{"id": "aa0ab84d", "question": "Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-22", "created_time": "2020-10-14", "confidence": 0.6003}
{"id": "712f4fb2", "question": "When will be the next S&P 500 correction?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-02-22", "resolution_time": "2022-02-22", "created_time": "2020-10-16", "confidence": 0.5513}
{"id": "08c37764", "question": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "936000", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2020-11-02", "confidence": 0.6596}
{"id": "62fabebb", "question": "How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "41", "resolution_time": "2021-06-30", "created_time": "2020-11-09", "confidence": 0.6846}
{"id": "41247a5c", "question": "Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-06", "created_time": "2020-12-03", "confidence": 0.5893}
{"id": "40177f2b", "question": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "10", "resolution_time": "2021-08-01", "created_time": "2020-12-06", "confidence": 0.6517}
{"id": "299509fd", "question": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3938", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-10", "confidence": 0.6362}
{"id": "358ccea4", "question": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "260", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6287}
{"id": "7f726473", "question": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1410000000", "resolution_time": "2021-07-15", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6302}
{"id": "bfa658ea", "question": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-11-01", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.3615}
{"id": "9a970b75", "question": "Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-04-27", "created_time": "2020-12-15", "confidence": 0.6328}
{"id": "9b12adc9", "question": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2020-12-24", "confidence": 0.7054}
{"id": "78448b65", "question": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-11-21", "created_time": "2020-12-24", "confidence": 0.7032}
{"id": "431b7e5d", "question": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-01", "confidence": 0.7201}
{"id": "7be37428", "question": "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-03-29", "resolution_time": "2021-03-30", "created_time": "2021-01-06", "confidence": 0.6101}
{"id": "52204c3e", "question": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-01-15", "confidence": 0.6529}
{"id": "fb46cf02", "question": "When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-03-03", "resolution_time": "2021-03-03", "created_time": "2021-01-19", "confidence": 0.604}
{"id": "27ac6a87", "question": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2021-01-20", "confidence": 0.6634}
{"id": "f38cd27f", "question": "Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-07", "created_time": "2021-01-27", "confidence": 0.5236}
{"id": "89166421", "question": "What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "64", "resolution_time": "2022-04-22", "created_time": "2021-02-14", "confidence": 0.2556}
{"id": "30dae216", "question": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-01", "created_time": "2021-03-03", "confidence": 0.4699}
{"id": "df84c6df", "question": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-02", "created_time": "2021-03-04", "confidence": 0.5136}
{"id": "ff4ac7fc", "question": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-10-31", "created_time": "2021-03-20", "confidence": 0.6817}
{"id": "1ed6cb67", "question": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-10-04", "created_time": "2021-04-01", "confidence": 0.6408}
{"id": "e91b03fa", "question": "Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.6928}
{"id": "34e2c068", "question": "When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2021-05-07", "confidence": 0.7464}
{"id": "aa1f9fd0", "question": "Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-15", "confidence": 0.7214}
{"id": "175a6b18", "question": "Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-21", "confidence": 0.6358}
{"id": "d25ad39e", "question": "How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3804", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-22", "confidence": 0.7787}
{"id": "a52efe47", "question": "Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-08-15", "created_time": "2021-07-06", "confidence": 0.5012}
{"id": "b8ebfe6e", "question": "Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-07-16", "confidence": 0.6601}
{"id": "01fa4965", "question": "Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-08-11", "confidence": 0.6733}
{"id": "d44fe45c", "question": "Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2021-08-14", "confidence": 0.5573}
{"id": "91345dd9", "question": "By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-10-29", "created_time": "2021-09-13", "confidence": 0.5466}
{"id": "e682805b", "question": "Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.6664}
{"id": "c0c811c3", "question": "Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.6922}
{"id": "4fe98b89", "question": "Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-17", "confidence": 0.655}
{"id": "c3283bba", "question": "By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.6928}
{"id": "294b9c00", "question": "By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.6411}
{"id": "21345c9e", "question": "How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "0", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.8722}
{"id": "7d4a0469", "question": "How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "663822575", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.7008}
{"id": "c6d162d9", "question": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6609}
{"id": "d642cab3", "question": "Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.7262}
{"id": "87b25109", "question": "What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "18", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6514}
{"id": "ca0c36c7", "question": "What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "16595", "resolution_time": "2022-12-31", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.5365}
{"id": "6c72d04d", "question": "Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-15", "created_time": "2022-01-19", "confidence": 0.7116}
{"id": "e1d4dcae", "question": "Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-04", "created_time": "2022-01-30", "confidence": 0.5644}
{"id": "24ea0826", "question": "Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-19", "created_time": "2022-02-03", "confidence": 0.5656}
{"id": "28f95561", "question": "Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-08", "confidence": 0.6632}
{"id": "13fb6d9a", "question": "Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-10", "created_time": "2022-02-09", "confidence": 0.6597}
{"id": "876322a7", "question": "Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-03", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.5453}
{"id": "ac975279", "question": "What rank will \"Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk\" be on 80,000 Hours's \"highest-impact career paths\" list on January 1, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "16", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6733}
{"id": "8bd8c78c", "question": "Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-27", "confidence": 0.623}
{"id": "f990285d", "question": "Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-27", "confidence": 0.6984}
{"id": "551f04ce", "question": "What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2024-06-29", "created_time": "2022-03-01", "confidence": 0.4919}
{"id": "05d2457f", "question": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.7157}
{"id": "b4351519", "question": "Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-03-08", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.5052}
{"id": "7c731e4a", "question": "Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.7278}
{"id": "778210ba", "question": "Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-04-03", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.3914}
{"id": "e2a22c8b", "question": "Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.655}
{"id": "668d8442", "question": "Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-03-13", "confidence": 0.6974}
{"id": "a04f27b3", "question": "Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-02-22", "created_time": "2022-03-14", "confidence": 0.7092}
{"id": "0f97e32a", "question": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-14", "confidence": 0.7207}
{"id": "89acf2a1", "question": "Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-17", "created_time": "2022-03-16", "confidence": 0.5362}
{"id": "c111d960", "question": "Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-16", "confidence": 0.7115}
{"id": "91fd329e", "question": "Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-02", "created_time": "2022-03-25", "confidence": 0.666}
{"id": "20397530", "question": "Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-24", "created_time": "2022-04-02", "confidence": 0.5306}
{"id": "46afe504", "question": "Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-20", "created_time": "2022-04-04", "confidence": 0.4954}
{"id": "210abe64", "question": "When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2022-04-10", "confidence": 0.6773}
{"id": "8ad61895", "question": "Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-04-20", "confidence": 0.6897}
{"id": "922b50e4", "question": "Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-09-08", "created_time": "2022-05-14", "confidence": 0.6018}
{"id": "8b2f43bf", "question": "Will any of the winners of BARDA's mask innovation challenge be sold on Amazon and cost less than $1 per unit before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-09", "created_time": "2022-06-07", "confidence": 0.6303}
{"id": "78ec4f20", "question": "When will WHO recommend widespread use of a malaria vaccine that is >75% effective?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-10-02", "resolution_time": "2023-10-02", "created_time": "2022-06-14", "confidence": 0.5473}
{"id": "a28dd98d", "question": "Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-23", "confidence": 0.7227}
{"id": "cea35022", "question": "Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-11-15", "confidence": 0.726}
{"id": "2026a026", "question": "Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-05", "confidence": 0.6488}
{"id": "7e52dc3b", "question": "In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-09", "confidence": 0.7269}
{"id": "8e40311b", "question": "In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-09", "confidence": 0.7255}
{"id": "023910dd", "question": "When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2023-05-08", "created_time": "2022-12-14", "confidence": 0.7518}
{"id": "01667630", "question": "Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-01", "created_time": "2022-12-16", "confidence": 0.687}
{"id": "66b24cbf", "question": "In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6547}
{"id": "8a914edf", "question": "Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-19", "created_time": "2023-01-10", "confidence": 0.5589}
{"id": "74fcf73a", "question": "How many U.S. jurisdictions will experience \"high\" or \"very high\" influenza activity for the week ending January 21, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2023-01-27", "created_time": "2023-01-17", "confidence": 0.6625}
{"id": "70519bbd", "question": "Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-20", "created_time": "2023-02-02", "confidence": 0.5957}
{"id": "d2169ccd", "question": "Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-30", "created_time": "2023-02-07", "confidence": 0.5512}
{"id": "4961aa32", "question": "On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-06", "created_time": "2023-02-21", "confidence": 0.7184}
{"id": "b0e03649", "question": "Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-03", "created_time": "2023-02-23", "confidence": 0.6829}
{"id": "f8b6dd34", "question": "Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-05", "created_time": "2023-03-26", "confidence": 0.6289}
{"id": "7e83eef2", "question": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-04-18", "confidence": 0.7232}
{"id": "771141e9", "question": "Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-29", "created_time": "2023-04-19", "confidence": 0.4559}
{"id": "93736848", "question": "Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-05-08", "created_time": "2023-04-24", "confidence": 0.404}
{"id": "13ba4160", "question": "Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2023-05-01", "confidence": 0.7292}
{"id": "0bc5d878", "question": "Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-05", "created_time": "2023-05-23", "confidence": 0.6739}
{"id": "cbdd2d6f", "question": "Will Meta's Voicebox model be leaked by July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-05", "created_time": "2023-06-20", "confidence": 0.6926}
{"id": "5810b31c", "question": "Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-06", "created_time": "2023-06-30", "confidence": 0.7143}
{"id": "441909fe", "question": "Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-09", "created_time": "2023-07-11", "confidence": 0.6254}
{"id": "2b86cb3b", "question": "Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-02", "created_time": "2023-07-11", "confidence": 0.6442}
{"id": "5c59528b", "question": "Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-09-30", "created_time": "2023-07-11", "confidence": 0.7151}
{"id": "6651109a", "question": "Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-08-23", "confidence": 0.6918}
{"id": "7c0b9f66", "question": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2023-08-29", "confidence": 0.7177}
{"id": "ee01f203", "question": "Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-09-01", "confidence": 0.6831}
{"id": "a58b0818", "question": "Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-28", "created_time": "2023-09-07", "confidence": 0.7086}
{"id": "2dc90443", "question": "Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-28", "created_time": "2023-09-19", "confidence": 0.7267}
{"id": "9ed0781e", "question": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-10-09", "confidence": 0.5812}
{"id": "508f14a6", "question": "When will New York City's period of  consecutive rainy weekends end?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-11-05", "resolution_time": "2023-11-06", "created_time": "2023-10-21", "confidence": 0.6846}
{"id": "d5567d81", "question": "Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.723}
{"id": "98ee5a4b", "question": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-11-21", "created_time": "2023-11-16", "confidence": 0.5103}
{"id": "0a888714", "question": "Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-11-20", "confidence": 0.7117}
{"id": "e5c61b34", "question": "Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-30", "created_time": "2023-11-20", "confidence": 0.6806}
{"id": "79a2ea70", "question": "Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.5455}
{"id": "52b4fa9d", "question": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-02-02", "created_time": "2024-01-30", "confidence": 0.3904}
{"id": "65ce4685", "question": "What will the IMDB rating of the special episode of Bluey titled \"The Sign\" be three days after it airs?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "10", "resolution_time": "2024-04-17", "created_time": "2024-04-08", "confidence": 0.4964}
{"id": "cce10e39", "question": "Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on May 20, 2024 than the 2011-2020 average?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.7256}
{"id": "7531fb2f", "question": "On May 18th, will Kyle, Texas set the world record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-18", "created_time": "2024-04-25", "confidence": 0.7086}
{"id": "2fac9c58", "question": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-06-12", "created_time": "2024-05-15", "confidence": 0.5379}
{"id": "ca75bcf3", "question": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-15", "created_time": "2024-05-18", "confidence": 0.7164}
{"id": "f7441413", "question": "Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the \"hush money\" case?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2024-05-30", "confidence": 0.7275}
{"id": "e0cecb2a", "question": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2024-07-17", "created_time": "2024-07-05", "confidence": 0.6666}
{"id": "fca871b2", "question": "Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-09-11", "created_time": "2024-07-24", "confidence": 0.3026}
{"id": "9c11f6fb", "question": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-08-04", "confidence": 0.6954}
{"id": "d86ed7a5", "question": "Will California Senate Bill 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" be enacted before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-08-05", "confidence": 0.5497}
{"id": "86ea332e", "question": "Will a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah be active on January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-11-25", "confidence": 0.6587}
{"id": "b53c9664", "question": "Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-31", "created_time": "2024-12-04", "confidence": 0.6962}
{"id": "adde5de3", "question": "Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before February 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-02-01", "created_time": "2024-12-21", "confidence": 0.6712}