FOReCAst_test.jsonl

{"id": "ee9e4846", "question": "Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-04-23", "created_time": "2015-10-26", "confidence": 0.6819}
{"id": "6aaa2d52", "question": "Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-12-30", "created_time": "2015-10-26", "confidence": 0.6729}
{"id": "97ef7b9c", "question": "Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-12-02", "created_time": "2015-11-15", "confidence": 0.5932}
{"id": "f51a0391", "question": "Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-08-15", "created_time": "2015-12-16", "confidence": 0.6223}
{"id": "c1e405cd", "question": "In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-03-15", "created_time": "2015-12-20", "confidence": 0.489}
{"id": "63b41439", "question": "by 2021, will SLAC complete an \"accelerator-on-a-chip\" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-03-17", "created_time": "2016-01-03", "confidence": 0.3982}
{"id": "903818d3", "question": "Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-11-18", "created_time": "2016-01-14", "confidence": 0.4518}
{"id": "8ec2e2b7", "question": "Will Uber drivers win a class-action lawsuit to define them as employees?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-07-05", "created_time": "2016-01-18", "confidence": 0.5716}
{"id": "ee70b328", "question": "Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-27", "created_time": "2016-02-10", "confidence": 0.666}
{"id": "8403cc92", "question": "Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-20", "created_time": "2016-02-15", "confidence": 0.6842}
{"id": "5884ad3b", "question": "In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy discover something completely new?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-12-30", "created_time": "2016-02-17", "confidence": 0.5364}
{"id": "0f620c24", "question": "Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-04-15", "created_time": "2016-03-03", "confidence": 0.3976}
{"id": "1ad1997c", "question": "Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-03-17", "created_time": "2016-03-10", "confidence": 0.2511}
{"id": "f0c8ad03", "question": "By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-01-21", "created_time": "2016-03-17", "confidence": 0.5227}
{"id": "c752be05", "question": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA,  by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2016-04-10", "confidence": 0.4535}
{"id": "db71dbdf", "question": "To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-09-27", "created_time": "2016-04-12", "confidence": 0.5414}
{"id": "c463e859", "question": "Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-04-01", "created_time": "2016-04-15", "confidence": 0.4063}
{"id": "04e30898", "question": "Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-04", "created_time": "2016-04-22", "confidence": 0.5674}
{"id": "d5bd14a5", "question": "Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-16", "created_time": "2016-04-23", "confidence": 0.66}
{"id": "df6296ad", "question": "Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-05-01", "created_time": "2016-05-12", "confidence": 0.5346}
{"id": "a77b1e80", "question": "Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-01-20", "created_time": "2016-05-27", "confidence": 0.6273}
{"id": "fd73b9f8", "question": "First human head transplant in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-09", "created_time": "2016-06-02", "confidence": 0.7017}
{"id": "5bb71ac0", "question": "Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-09", "created_time": "2016-06-09", "confidence": 0.6433}
{"id": "e3907574", "question": "Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-18", "created_time": "2016-08-13", "confidence": 0.3766}
{"id": "cb664420", "question": "All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2016-09-07", "confidence": 0.5979}
{"id": "af236d10", "question": "Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2016-11-10", "created_time": "2016-09-21", "confidence": 0.2336}
{"id": "40477b87", "question": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-18", "created_time": "2016-10-11", "confidence": 0.566}
{"id": "dffc972a", "question": "Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2016-11-09", "created_time": "2016-10-17", "confidence": 0.6877}
{"id": "460e8325", "question": "Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-01-03", "created_time": "2017-01-06", "confidence": 0.7099}
{"id": "940b93e7", "question": "Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2017-02-11", "confidence": 0.6501}
{"id": "3d70dd48", "question": "By 2025, Will The Boring Company dig more tunnels (by length) than Trump's Mexican Border Wall?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-03", "created_time": "2017-02-25", "confidence": 0.3593}
{"id": "95a9700d", "question": "Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2017-06-06", "confidence": 0.716}
{"id": "b24334a0", "question": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-07-03", "created_time": "2017-06-19", "confidence": 0.6601}
{"id": "3bc41ceb", "question": "Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-08-02", "created_time": "2017-07-27", "confidence": 0.6804}
{"id": "465aac82", "question": "Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-11-06", "created_time": "2017-08-07", "confidence": 0.6855}
{"id": "9d110b26", "question": "Will Bitcoin and Ethereum be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2017-11-12", "created_time": "2017-08-29", "confidence": 0.0186}
{"id": "333e5fd5", "question": "A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2017-09-25", "confidence": 0.693}
{"id": "85b2e3c5", "question": "Will the US take military action in N. Korea?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2017-09-25", "confidence": 0.6446}
{"id": "91f9121d", "question": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2017-10-09", "confidence": 0.5658}
{"id": "015f84b4", "question": "Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2017-11-20", "confidence": 0.7054}
{"id": "f35e0a27", "question": "Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-02", "created_time": "2017-11-23", "confidence": 0.5263}
{"id": "a5f8f09b", "question": "Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-06-20", "created_time": "2017-11-28", "confidence": 0.479}
{"id": "66c4281b", "question": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-06-21", "created_time": "2017-12-03", "confidence": 0.6091}
{"id": "40e06778", "question": "Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-02-06", "created_time": "2018-01-26", "confidence": 0.6094}
{"id": "4526110e", "question": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2018-02-13", "confidence": 0.6279}
{"id": "000d2d17", "question": "Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-08-03", "created_time": "2018-02-21", "confidence": 0.5012}
{"id": "af279fcd", "question": "By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2018-02-23", "confidence": 0.6999}
{"id": "d3a924b5", "question": "Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-04-17", "created_time": "2018-02-25", "confidence": 0.5169}
{"id": "ad1dd9d7", "question": "Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-06-12", "created_time": "2018-03-09", "confidence": 0.6112}
{"id": "f2cfa8fa", "question": "Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-04-10", "created_time": "2018-03-20", "confidence": 0.4506}
{"id": "a0a6669b", "question": "Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-23", "created_time": "2018-03-29", "confidence": 0.7282}
{"id": "96cc7d80", "question": "Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-12-19", "created_time": "2018-04-14", "confidence": 0.3294}
{"id": "5069a003", "question": "How many earthquakes of magnitude 5 or stronger will occur worldwide in May 2018?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "139", "resolution_time": "2018-06-02", "created_time": "2018-04-18", "confidence": 0.6331}
{"id": "f3a9cba8", "question": "Is Westworld located on an island?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-04-22", "confidence": 0.5256}
{"id": "fd4caf07", "question": "Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-15", "created_time": "2018-05-16", "confidence": 0.4714}
{"id": "7511fe4c", "question": "By the end of 2019 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-12", "created_time": "2018-06-01", "confidence": 0.6147}
{"id": "570eeea9", "question": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-25", "created_time": "2018-06-05", "confidence": 0.7188}
{"id": "97fa96d5", "question": "Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-03-12", "created_time": "2018-06-17", "confidence": 0.5706}
{"id": "63286fae", "question": "Will Japan's Hayabusa2 spacecraft's lander or rovers successfully land on the asteroid Ryugu?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-09-22", "created_time": "2018-06-24", "confidence": 0.646}
{"id": "1a4f9917", "question": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-24", "created_time": "2018-06-27", "confidence": 0.619}
{"id": "5fde6ad1", "question": "Will the Trump Adminstration succeed in creating a \"Space Force\" before the 2020 presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-12-21", "created_time": "2018-07-06", "confidence": 0.1517}
{"id": "12542140", "question": "When will Leela Zero or some other self-learning chess engine win the world computer chess title?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2019-05-28", "resolution_time": "2019-06-06", "created_time": "2018-07-06", "confidence": 0.5729}
{"id": "8f708bc7", "question": "Will Tesla be profitable in Q3 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-10-24", "created_time": "2018-07-07", "confidence": 0.275}
{"id": "bf2701f4", "question": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2018-07-07", "confidence": 0.2857}
{"id": "0721ca20", "question": "Will the IBM's Summit remain the top dog in supercomputing power?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2018-11-16", "created_time": "2018-07-08", "confidence": 0.6559}
{"id": "2e170492", "question": "Of the top 10 AI companies, how many will pledge not to develop lethal autonomous weapons?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2018-11-15", "created_time": "2018-07-11", "confidence": 0.4726}
{"id": "1a896702", "question": "Will Daenerys Targaryen die in season eight of Game of Thrones?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-05-21", "created_time": "2018-07-26", "confidence": 0.4539}
{"id": "c8914a5e", "question": "Will the latest Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims a hundred lives?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-24", "created_time": "2018-08-05", "confidence": 0.616}
{"id": "a91d2a20", "question": "Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-09-08", "created_time": "2018-08-15", "confidence": 0.6892}
{"id": "c050a344", "question": "Will the US midterms be hacked?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-01-18", "created_time": "2018-08-20", "confidence": 0.5133}
{"id": "25391df7", "question": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2018-08-20", "confidence": 0.5037}
{"id": "e7af6993", "question": "How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1", "resolution_time": "2018-10-06", "created_time": "2018-08-20", "confidence": 0.7475}
{"id": "d69f917f", "question": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-23", "created_time": "2018-08-20", "confidence": 0.5278}
{"id": "b8fb8677", "question": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-10-30", "created_time": "2018-08-21", "confidence": 0.643}
{"id": "ced41f88", "question": "Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-06-08", "created_time": "2018-08-21", "confidence": 0.5537}
{"id": "4fb187af", "question": "Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-11-07", "created_time": "2018-09-04", "confidence": 0.6175}
{"id": "3c9da984", "question": "Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2018-12-31", "created_time": "2018-09-18", "confidence": 0.71}
{"id": "52f618c1", "question": "Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-16", "created_time": "2017-08-15", "confidence": 0.5118}
{"id": "ba1a9bdb", "question": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-08", "created_time": "2018-09-22", "confidence": 0.7228}
{"id": "93a1ddee", "question": "Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-10-27", "created_time": "2018-10-08", "confidence": 0.5655}
{"id": "9a6311b4", "question": "Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-04-19", "created_time": "2018-10-25", "confidence": 0.4224}
{"id": "3fffbce8", "question": "Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2018-11-08", "confidence": 0.6088}
{"id": "748b3c18", "question": "Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-01-03", "created_time": "2016-11-30", "confidence": 0.5959}
{"id": "bc83d1f6", "question": "How many electoral college votes will Donald Trump win in the 2020 Presidential Election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "232", "resolution_time": "2021-01-13", "created_time": "2018-12-08", "confidence": 0.6442}
{"id": "8c6a0982", "question": "Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-07-23", "created_time": "2018-12-11", "confidence": 0.1629}
{"id": "d9d57006", "question": "When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-09-18", "resolution_time": "2020-09-17", "created_time": "2018-12-17", "confidence": 0.6544}
{"id": "ba64442d", "question": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-31", "created_time": "2018-12-19", "confidence": 0.6281}
{"id": "2cea4cbe", "question": "Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-01-30", "created_time": "2018-12-21", "confidence": 0.6094}
{"id": "f238d897", "question": "Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-08-19", "created_time": "2018-12-31", "confidence": 0.668}
{"id": "9766d1f1", "question": "Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2019-01-02", "confidence": 0.7147}
{"id": "27e22a80", "question": "Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2019-10-22", "created_time": "2019-01-20", "confidence": 0.5054}
{"id": "95475b84", "question": "Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-31", "created_time": "2019-01-28", "confidence": 0.6537}
{"id": "3e5492b2", "question": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2019-01-28", "confidence": 0.5249}
{"id": "95a3ff91", "question": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2019-02-19", "confidence": 0.631}
{"id": "62e02070", "question": "Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-02-03", "created_time": "2019-02-19", "confidence": 0.6094}
{"id": "3ad362de", "question": "When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-13", "created_time": "2018-11-17", "confidence": 0.4576}
{"id": "3b2f0404", "question": "Will Mark Latham be a member of One Nation on the 1st of January 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2019-03-24", "confidence": 0.5824}
{"id": "deec2684", "question": "Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-02-02", "created_time": "2019-05-15", "confidence": 0.6576}
{"id": "7ed1b33a", "question": "Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-11-30", "created_time": "2019-05-25", "confidence": 0.4574}
{"id": "e97855d4", "question": "Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-12-30", "created_time": "2019-06-17", "confidence": 0.6056}
{"id": "d4083dda", "question": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2016-03-13", "confidence": 0.7122}
{"id": "0834aa7d", "question": "Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-17", "created_time": "2019-06-25", "confidence": 0.6532}
{"id": "769485a3", "question": "Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-08-27", "created_time": "2019-06-26", "confidence": 0.6812}
{"id": "a3eb237c", "question": "Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-11-30", "created_time": "2019-07-08", "confidence": 0.6505}
{"id": "c7c7b2ba", "question": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-09-06", "resolution_time": "2022-09-06", "created_time": "2019-07-23", "confidence": 0.5093}
{"id": "6e076b96", "question": "Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-10-01", "created_time": "2019-08-30", "confidence": 0.6196}
{"id": "af3f9354", "question": "Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-11-01", "created_time": "2019-09-13", "confidence": 0.6147}
{"id": "0ea07860", "question": "Will the Mars 2020 helicopter fly?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-04-19", "created_time": "2019-09-18", "confidence": 0.6415}
{"id": "a409fffe", "question": "Will Donald Trump resign from the office of U.S. president before the end of his first term?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-23", "created_time": "2019-09-26", "confidence": 0.704}
{"id": "db4a06cd", "question": "If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-30", "created_time": "2019-09-28", "confidence": 0.6975}
{"id": "7da39d65", "question": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-19", "created_time": "2019-10-05", "confidence": 0.3314}
{"id": "ce94ee00", "question": "What will the average global atmospheric CO2 concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "415", "resolution_time": "2022-01-06", "created_time": "2019-10-17", "confidence": 0.6963}
{"id": "4d67127f", "question": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2019-10-21", "confidence": 0.6543}
{"id": "083382b9", "question": "Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-23", "created_time": "2019-10-26", "confidence": 0.5655}
{"id": "888e2d5a", "question": "Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2019-11-28", "created_time": "2019-10-26", "confidence": 0.5042}
{"id": "5880dc8a", "question": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will the combined U.S. investment in psychedelics research and psychedelics-focused startups exceed $100M?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-08", "created_time": "2019-10-27", "confidence": 0.5451}
{"id": "7642660c", "question": "By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-02", "created_time": "2019-10-29", "confidence": 0.6957}
{"id": "947773b9", "question": "In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-23", "created_time": "2019-10-31", "confidence": 0.6329}
{"id": "55843504", "question": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-04-04", "resolution_time": "2022-04-11", "created_time": "2019-11-01", "confidence": 0.5453}
{"id": "5dbde8e0", "question": "How impeached will Trump be?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2020-02-06", "created_time": "2019-11-21", "confidence": 0.7248}
{"id": "7bef04e6", "question": "Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-08", "created_time": "2019-12-04", "confidence": 0.6588}
{"id": "51c6a412", "question": "Will our global atmospheric CO2 concentration over the 2020 to 2023 period be on path to limit warming to 1.4°C by mid-century?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2019-12-13", "confidence": 0.7056}
{"id": "21563e93", "question": "Will the Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election be chosen at the Democratic National Convention after only one round of voting?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-21", "created_time": "2019-12-30", "confidence": 0.6484}
{"id": "b933b488", "question": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-02", "confidence": 0.6245}
{"id": "54840558", "question": "US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-01-04", "confidence": 0.7243}
{"id": "9ad16b14", "question": "Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-01-07", "confidence": 0.7204}
{"id": "c7323a81", "question": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2020-01-08", "confidence": 0.725}
{"id": "ea9ad8c6", "question": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-09-08", "resolution_time": "2022-09-08", "created_time": "2020-01-10", "confidence": 0.5255}
{"id": "8330261b", "question": "Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-10-27", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.2766}
{"id": "9bb365d3", "question": "Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-16", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.6161}
{"id": "f5b57cfb", "question": "Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-08-27", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.5153}
{"id": "a89ce623", "question": "Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-07", "created_time": "2020-01-12", "confidence": 0.5955}
{"id": "53563093", "question": "Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-09", "created_time": "2020-01-17", "confidence": 0.6355}
{"id": "0407a5bd", "question": "If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-15", "created_time": "2020-01-18", "confidence": 0.5543}
{"id": "8557ad56", "question": "How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2022-01-17", "created_time": "2020-01-25", "confidence": 0.5747}
{"id": "076e518a", "question": "How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "10", "resolution_time": "2020-08-16", "created_time": "2020-01-28", "confidence": 0.601}
{"id": "79fa81da", "question": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3183010", "resolution_time": "2021-06-17", "created_time": "2020-01-24", "confidence": 0.5803}
{"id": "7d31bb20", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9171", "resolution_time": "2020-03-02", "created_time": "2020-01-26", "confidence": 0.4652}
{"id": "0fa798d9", "question": "How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "85996", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-15", "confidence": 0.504}
{"id": "944f4551", "question": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-06", "created_time": "2020-02-18", "confidence": 0.5761}
{"id": "51602c86", "question": "How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO East Mediterranean region by March 27?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "35249", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-21", "confidence": 0.6765}
{"id": "54084f03", "question": "How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "965951", "resolution_time": "2020-04-27", "created_time": "2020-02-22", "confidence": 0.5531}
{"id": "e6f89c12", "question": "How many COVID-2019 cases in South Korea will be confirmed on March the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9332", "resolution_time": "2020-03-27", "created_time": "2020-02-22", "confidence": 0.659}
{"id": "db6002e4", "question": "How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "965951", "resolution_time": "2020-04-27", "created_time": "2020-02-26", "confidence": 0.5424}
{"id": "22ec8de7", "question": "Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-03-20", "created_time": "2020-02-27", "confidence": 0.4681}
{"id": "d2e4c00a", "question": "Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-05-11", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.2765}
{"id": "6b9732c4", "question": "How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "52", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.6426}
{"id": "040c45a4", "question": "When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-11-16", "resolution_time": "2020-11-16", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.5164}
{"id": "66bdd189", "question": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "45540000", "resolution_time": "2021-04-04", "created_time": "2020-02-29", "confidence": 0.5827}
{"id": "4f606fce", "question": "When will the total international (outside mainland China) cases of COVID-19 exceed the total cases within mainland China?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2020-03-15", "resolution_time": "2020-03-15", "created_time": "2020-03-03", "confidence": 0.662}
{"id": "612942cd", "question": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-12-05", "created_time": "2020-03-10", "confidence": 0.2848}
{"id": "0d936cf0", "question": "How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "81477457", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-03-10", "confidence": 0.6041}
{"id": "3c292d32", "question": "Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-15", "created_time": "2020-03-17", "confidence": 0.6635}
{"id": "3eaec7ca", "question": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3664292", "resolution_time": "2022-08-15", "created_time": "2020-03-18", "confidence": 0.6462}
{"id": "8b9d0522", "question": "Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-06-10", "created_time": "2020-03-21", "confidence": 0.4339}
{"id": "ea62aa09", "question": "Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-03-22", "confidence": 0.6481}
{"id": "d769a786", "question": "What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4", "resolution_time": "2020-04-03", "created_time": "2020-03-25", "confidence": 0.6827}
{"id": "a17649fd", "question": "What will Washington state's Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "214427536455", "resolution_time": "2020-09-13", "created_time": "2020-03-25", "confidence": 0.6389}
{"id": "39e093e0", "question": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-18", "created_time": "2020-04-03", "confidence": 0.5535}
{"id": "9a8392d7", "question": "Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2020-04-06", "confidence": 0.7215}
{"id": "1cf81a20", "question": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-08-02", "created_time": "2020-04-06", "confidence": 0.521}
{"id": "4994f79d", "question": "What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "383386", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2020-04-07", "confidence": 0.55}
{"id": "6b18b5e4", "question": "When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-01-30", "resolution_time": "2021-01-06", "created_time": "2020-04-08", "confidence": 0.6112}
{"id": "28937c07", "question": "Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-07-01", "created_time": "2020-04-11", "confidence": 0.6654}
{"id": "17b2b1e1", "question": "What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2237", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-04-13", "confidence": 0.8755}
{"id": "b5b8d075", "question": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-15", "created_time": "2020-04-13", "confidence": 0.4192}
{"id": "e67e9b26", "question": "LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "72527", "resolution_time": "2020-05-09", "created_time": "2020-04-16", "confidence": 0.6788}
{"id": "66e90c0b", "question": "LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2267", "resolution_time": "2020-05-09", "created_time": "2020-04-16", "confidence": 0.6736}
{"id": "c3b2e764", "question": "LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "336811", "resolution_time": "2021-01-10", "created_time": "2020-04-16", "confidence": 0.5482}
{"id": "0d0b6419", "question": "Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-25", "created_time": "2020-04-17", "confidence": 0.615}
{"id": "802d0ae3", "question": "When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2021-01-12", "created_time": "2020-04-28", "confidence": 0.6132}
{"id": "f734fb8e", "question": "Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-04-30", "confidence": 0.6251}
{"id": "6b4860b7", "question": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2020-05-18", "confidence": 0.7041}
{"id": "5c1aa006", "question": "Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-01", "created_time": "2020-06-01", "confidence": 0.5712}
{"id": "6522918d", "question": "Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-06-02", "confidence": 0.2572}
{"id": "63cc1518", "question": "If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2020-06-04", "confidence": 0.4635}
{"id": "c8925b95", "question": "If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-08", "created_time": "2020-06-05", "confidence": 0.6723}
{"id": "55297bce", "question": "Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-09", "created_time": "2020-06-15", "confidence": 0.6997}
{"id": "f8d65793", "question": "Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2020-06-17", "confidence": 0.6516}
{"id": "6c114790", "question": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2020-07-01", "confidence": 0.7213}
{"id": "0198c516", "question": "Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-14", "created_time": "2020-07-05", "confidence": 0.4533}
{"id": "33d79b62", "question": "Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-02", "created_time": "2020-07-08", "confidence": 0.6613}
{"id": "2e15bec3", "question": "Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-03", "created_time": "2020-07-09", "confidence": 0.6419}
{"id": "f47e1036", "question": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-07-20", "resolution_time": "2021-07-20", "created_time": "2020-07-17", "confidence": 0.5388}
{"id": "895636b3", "question": "[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-10-01", "created_time": "2020-07-23", "confidence": 0.7197}
{"id": "0973fae0", "question": "Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2020-07-24", "confidence": 0.6759}
{"id": "2206a884", "question": "Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-09-30", "created_time": "2020-08-06", "confidence": 0.6914}
{"id": "882d42fc", "question": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-30", "created_time": "2020-08-07", "confidence": 0.7119}
{"id": "d6d67040", "question": "Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-03", "created_time": "2020-08-15", "confidence": 0.7181}
{"id": "0a8b8081", "question": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-06-15", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-08-17", "confidence": 0.582}
{"id": "33a8b59d", "question": "What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "43", "resolution_time": "2021-08-18", "created_time": "2020-08-18", "confidence": 0.6303}
{"id": "281ce448", "question": "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-20", "created_time": "2020-08-20", "confidence": 0.4773}
{"id": "50003c0d", "question": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "460400", "resolution_time": "2022-03-04", "created_time": "2020-08-24", "confidence": 0.5394}
{"id": "9db115e8", "question": "Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-11-04", "created_time": "2020-08-26", "confidence": 0.5941}
{"id": "e3f23b79", "question": "Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-10-12", "created_time": "2020-08-29", "confidence": 0.4805}
{"id": "45fcfe11", "question": "Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-10-14", "created_time": "2020-09-04", "confidence": 0.6928}
{"id": "8f48d00d", "question": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-17", "resolution_time": "2021-06-09", "created_time": "2020-09-10", "confidence": 0.366}
{"id": "f84da364", "question": "Will \"best practice\" in treating Coronavirus involve administering  Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-10", "created_time": "2020-09-29", "confidence": 0.6164}
{"id": "e9886e1a", "question": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-05-29", "created_time": "2020-10-04", "confidence": 0.6015}
{"id": "84fe5ecc", "question": "Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2020-12-31", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.6282}
{"id": "08ad0d8b", "question": "By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-14", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.6137}
{"id": "bae6e761", "question": "On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-03", "created_time": "2020-10-06", "confidence": 0.5459}
{"id": "eb7ed8c6", "question": "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-01", "created_time": "2020-10-13", "confidence": 0.4822}
{"id": "4bdb1be1", "question": "Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-06", "created_time": "2020-10-14", "confidence": 0.6523}
{"id": "7d21c48f", "question": "Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-01-23", "created_time": "2020-10-14", "confidence": 0.5979}
{"id": "378a77d3", "question": "Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-06", "created_time": "2020-10-14", "confidence": 0.4062}
{"id": "ad17a245", "question": "Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-17", "created_time": "2020-10-14", "confidence": 0.518}
{"id": "7380fdee", "question": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3320", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2020-10-14", "confidence": 0.7681}
{"id": "aff266c3", "question": "Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-11-15", "created_time": "2020-10-21", "confidence": 0.5216}
{"id": "a2ca7c3c", "question": "Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-31", "created_time": "2020-10-24", "confidence": 0.4543}
{"id": "44a9ad2c", "question": "Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-08-08", "created_time": "2020-10-28", "confidence": 0.4539}
{"id": "7633bde0", "question": "Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2020-12-19", "created_time": "2020-11-03", "confidence": 0.606}
{"id": "8e837b96", "question": "When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-06-18", "resolution_time": "2021-06-27", "created_time": "2020-11-18", "confidence": 0.7132}
{"id": "95cd0fc4", "question": "Will the Coup-o-meter enter \"Attempted Coup\" or \"Coup\" territory by February 1st 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-01-06", "created_time": "2020-11-19", "confidence": 0.1105}
{"id": "e0cd4dc8", "question": "What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "-2", "resolution_time": "2021-01-23", "created_time": "2020-11-21", "confidence": 0.4915}
{"id": "e1963b39", "question": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "856500", "resolution_time": "2021-02-22", "created_time": "2020-11-26", "confidence": 0.4557}
{"id": "ec1b84ba", "question": "Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-08", "created_time": "2020-12-08", "confidence": 0.508}
{"id": "95a79cf9", "question": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8207", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-10", "confidence": 0.6092}
{"id": "10c0718e", "question": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "60", "resolution_time": "2021-09-28", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5009}
{"id": "b7e8e3e3", "question": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "1590", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5781}
{"id": "8558d3fd", "question": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "118", "resolution_time": "2021-06-14", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5724}
{"id": "04b316d9", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "287612023", "resolution_time": "2022-01-26", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6312}
{"id": "99061a63", "question": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6138}
{"id": "96a08d05", "question": "What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "397000", "resolution_time": "2022-11-24", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.5446}
{"id": "4de99b4d", "question": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6", "resolution_time": "2022-01-27", "created_time": "2020-12-11", "confidence": 0.6705}
{"id": "14929b9e", "question": "What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "23", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.7386}
{"id": "9556e1a2", "question": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "109", "resolution_time": "2021-06-15", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.5982}
{"id": "8689596d", "question": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "88", "resolution_time": "2021-06-14", "created_time": "2020-12-12", "confidence": 0.7918}
{"id": "637302fe", "question": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "122", "resolution_time": "2021-11-22", "created_time": "2020-12-13", "confidence": 0.5443}
{"id": "1dadd9df", "question": "What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "44", "resolution_time": "2021-02-01", "created_time": "2020-12-14", "confidence": 0.7352}
{"id": "5139bfa2", "question": "What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "29", "resolution_time": "2021-02-01", "created_time": "2020-12-14", "confidence": 0.7426}
{"id": "1019db6b", "question": "What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "55", "resolution_time": "2021-02-01", "created_time": "2020-12-14", "confidence": 0.7277}
{"id": "c09d5922", "question": "What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "6", "resolution_time": "2021-05-02", "created_time": "2020-12-17", "confidence": 0.7267}
{"id": "ba86adf7", "question": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-18", "created_time": "2020-12-18", "confidence": 0.6793}
{"id": "13a92bc3", "question": "Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2020-12-24", "confidence": 0.5542}
{"id": "0db726d9", "question": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-29", "created_time": "2020-12-24", "confidence": 0.6466}
{"id": "e9b612a1", "question": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-13", "created_time": "2020-12-27", "confidence": 0.3764}
{"id": "1402d367", "question": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-07-18", "resolution_time": "2023-07-27", "created_time": "2020-12-28", "confidence": 0.5205}
{"id": "755a5cb7", "question": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2020-12-30", "confidence": 0.6655}
{"id": "b418e805", "question": "Will ≥3 million Americans be locked down because of B117 by March 11th, 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-03-13", "created_time": "2020-12-31", "confidence": 0.5879}
{"id": "941056f5", "question": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "55", "resolution_time": "2021-05-09", "created_time": "2021-01-01", "confidence": 0.5449}
{"id": "4242d704", "question": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-17", "resolution_time": "2021-05-17", "created_time": "2021-01-06", "confidence": 0.7158}
{"id": "06cdee3d", "question": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-07-31", "resolution_time": "2021-07-31", "created_time": "2021-01-09", "confidence": 0.6021}
{"id": "0a6ec0c1", "question": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-02", "created_time": "2021-01-09", "confidence": 0.7171}
{"id": "5ebd24c6", "question": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-05-20", "resolution_time": "2021-05-29", "created_time": "2021-01-12", "confidence": 0.5502}
{"id": "0f0a4252", "question": "[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-14", "created_time": "2021-01-13", "confidence": 0.6233}
{"id": "5c78a636", "question": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "98", "resolution_time": "2025-01-22", "created_time": "2021-01-14", "confidence": 0.7796}
{"id": "0e33c6fd", "question": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-08", "created_time": "2021-01-18", "confidence": 0.3163}
{"id": "ae360470", "question": "When will the UK hold its next general election?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-05-24", "created_time": "2021-01-22", "confidence": 0.7112}
{"id": "a50bef28", "question": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-03", "created_time": "2021-01-22", "confidence": 0.6771}
{"id": "d20579a4", "question": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-11-15", "created_time": "2021-01-25", "confidence": 0.1168}
{"id": "3a28e223", "question": "Will GameStop (GME) reach a stock price of $1000 by 11:59 pm, 20 February 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-02-20", "created_time": "2021-02-02", "confidence": 0.727}
{"id": "7e9052c4", "question": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2021-02-03", "confidence": 0.4795}
{"id": "81af74b9", "question": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "57", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2021-02-05", "confidence": 0.4959}
{"id": "010ef4a3", "question": "Will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be issued an emergency use authorization by the US FDA within a week after the 26 February VRBPAC meeting?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-02-28", "created_time": "2021-02-05", "confidence": 0.7046}
{"id": "ee5bf7d2", "question": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2023-04-04", "resolution_time": "2023-04-04", "created_time": "2021-02-12", "confidence": 0.5283}
{"id": "7c65d3f5", "question": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-31", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.1537}
{"id": "57aec5e1", "question": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-06-04", "created_time": "2021-02-19", "confidence": 0.648}
{"id": "1bd7d049", "question": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-02-20", "confidence": 0.6658}
{"id": "a16ac939", "question": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-12-29", "created_time": "2021-02-26", "confidence": 0.6406}
{"id": "77d2c63a", "question": "Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-04", "created_time": "2021-03-04", "confidence": 0.6654}
{"id": "a83ab514", "question": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-04-20", "created_time": "2021-03-12", "confidence": 0.4484}
{"id": "181f92a5", "question": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-03", "created_time": "2021-03-23", "confidence": 0.5774}
{"id": "a97917f6", "question": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-03-29", "resolution_time": "2021-03-29", "created_time": "2021-03-25", "confidence": 0.5975}
{"id": "2e153e0d", "question": "In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2021-03-29", "confidence": 0.6588}
{"id": "f8b37fae", "question": "Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-06", "confidence": 0.7074}
{"id": "c49b1b03", "question": "Will United States military troops be in Afghanistan on 2021-10-7?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-10-10", "created_time": "2021-04-14", "confidence": 0.5247}
{"id": "9c4bb6e8", "question": "What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "91", "resolution_time": "2023-04-11", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.5652}
{"id": "5d803832", "question": "Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-18", "confidence": 0.7151}
{"id": "8ec96f1a", "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-12-10", "created_time": "2021-04-23", "confidence": 0.6644}
{"id": "9c6b9a1d", "question": "Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-26", "confidence": 0.7279}
{"id": "f0ab5a1a", "question": "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2021 California recall election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-09-15", "created_time": "2021-04-27", "confidence": 0.6817}
{"id": "bdfd6e44", "question": "What will the percent of Virginia's population vaccinated with at least one dose be on 1 August 2021?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "60", "resolution_time": "2021-08-01", "created_time": "2021-04-28", "confidence": 0.705}
{"id": "199bf618", "question": "Will Boris Johnson be UK Prime Minister in January 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-01-01", "created_time": "2021-04-29", "confidence": 0.7113}
{"id": "72252313", "question": "Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-10", "created_time": "2021-05-17", "confidence": 0.5656}
{"id": "50de32a9", "question": "Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-15", "confidence": 0.7197}
{"id": "1792ad93", "question": "Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-06-15", "confidence": 0.727}
{"id": "c233dbcc", "question": "Will the US have more than 100,000 new daily COVID-19 cases before January 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2021-07-31", "created_time": "2021-07-10", "confidence": 0.5944}
{"id": "a8653183", "question": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-13", "created_time": "2021-07-25", "confidence": 0.5701}
{"id": "dc9d5f6a", "question": "When will the Taliban take Kabul?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-08-15", "resolution_time": "2021-08-15", "created_time": "2021-08-12", "confidence": 0.5156}
{"id": "979f5a88", "question": "Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-02", "created_time": "2021-08-25", "confidence": 0.1456}
{"id": "b72fa81e", "question": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-08-25", "confidence": 0.5879}
{"id": "5ed79587", "question": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-11-25", "created_time": "2021-08-27", "confidence": 0.5533}
{"id": "25aa22f6", "question": "Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-02-01", "created_time": "2021-08-27", "confidence": 0.6076}
{"id": "84dba6cf", "question": "By 31 December 2021 will any hospital in the US have an official policy to triage COVID patients based on vaccination status?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-02", "created_time": "2021-09-09", "confidence": 0.6248}
{"id": "f9876253", "question": "Will the Democratic candidate win the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2021-11-03", "created_time": "2021-09-09", "confidence": 0.3032}
{"id": "e6761da0", "question": "Will Yair Lapid be Prime Minister of Israel by 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-06-30", "created_time": "2021-10-01", "confidence": 0.5113}
{"id": "ea70b8bf", "question": "By 31 December 2021, will any Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force aircraft enter Taiwan's airspace without authorization?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-01-03", "created_time": "2021-10-03", "confidence": 0.6644}
{"id": "bf69f7e8", "question": "Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-10-04", "confidence": 0.6608}
{"id": "fb2f41e0", "question": "Will implementation of measures more severe than those in \"Plan B\" be announced in the UK before 1 February 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-02-01", "created_time": "2021-10-29", "confidence": 0.5419}
{"id": "27729dc9", "question": "Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2021-11-05", "confidence": 0.6234}
{"id": "3f6b5525", "question": "When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2021-12-22", "resolution_time": "2021-12-22", "created_time": "2021-11-06", "confidence": 0.5772}
{"id": "55502aa7", "question": "By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.6902}
{"id": "6df97183", "question": "By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2021-11-08", "confidence": 0.7084}
{"id": "0a1a5a54", "question": "Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-08-15", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.6018}
{"id": "303c7156", "question": "What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8", "resolution_time": "2022-04-29", "created_time": "2021-11-27", "confidence": 0.6018}
{"id": "2b75d59a", "question": "When will the EU pass the AI Act?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-05-21", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2021-12-02", "confidence": 0.548}
{"id": "34e87891", "question": "Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2021-12-06", "confidence": 0.6977}
{"id": "188c82bb", "question": "Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-07", "created_time": "2021-12-07", "confidence": 0.5584}
{"id": "48c83825", "question": "Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-25", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6917}
{"id": "cef41cb3", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "656398000", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6545}
{"id": "f787d841", "question": "Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-12", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.6925}
{"id": "26dd2476", "question": "What will US inflation be in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8", "resolution_time": "2023-01-12", "created_time": "2021-12-10", "confidence": 0.5265}
{"id": "a22fdc94", "question": "What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "7367888344", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-11", "confidence": 0.6708}
{"id": "d918b1bb", "question": "Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-09", "created_time": "2021-12-15", "confidence": 0.5124}
{"id": "3dc86779", "question": "Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2021-12-17", "confidence": 0.5936}
{"id": "17660470", "question": "Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-31", "created_time": "2021-12-20", "confidence": 0.6547}
{"id": "dfe6f26a", "question": "By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-03", "created_time": "2021-12-22", "confidence": 0.7073}
{"id": "0df1abc8", "question": "How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "213", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2021-12-30", "confidence": 0.6986}
{"id": "1f0a694e", "question": "Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-09-22", "created_time": "2022-01-02", "confidence": 0.5009}
{"id": "8c4aab6b", "question": "Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-05-22", "created_time": "2022-01-04", "confidence": 0.66}
{"id": "189230bf", "question": "When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-09-06", "resolution_time": "2022-09-06", "created_time": "2022-01-19", "confidence": 0.5722}
{"id": "8e4431df", "question": "Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-03-14", "created_time": "2022-01-19", "confidence": 0.5223}
{"id": "6ac89554", "question": "Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-20", "confidence": 0.713}
{"id": "ed43e20b", "question": "Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-25", "confidence": 0.6143}
{"id": "d77f0ad9", "question": "By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-01-26", "confidence": 0.7203}
{"id": "8be48fd2", "question": "Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-31", "created_time": "2022-01-26", "confidence": 0.6988}
{"id": "1f680e64", "question": "[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-02-20", "created_time": "2022-02-06", "confidence": 0.5325}
{"id": "1b804456", "question": "Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.7178}
{"id": "b376bfb1", "question": "Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-08-01", "created_time": "2022-02-24", "confidence": 0.6197}
{"id": "55852c69", "question": "What will China's GDP be in 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "17", "resolution_time": "2024-08-17", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.5459}
{"id": "ae0af4b4", "question": "Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.7111}
{"id": "84c41183", "question": "Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-02-25", "confidence": 0.6447}
{"id": "a652c985", "question": "Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-04-20", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.5114}
{"id": "68402b95", "question": "Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-02-26", "confidence": 0.7271}
{"id": "b1f1fb83", "question": "Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-12-31", "created_time": "2022-02-28", "confidence": 0.4845}
{"id": "194a56ee", "question": "Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.6852}
{"id": "5f87d8e4", "question": "What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "81", "resolution_time": "2022-12-13", "created_time": "2022-03-02", "confidence": 0.6028}
{"id": "5047e10b", "question": "Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-03", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.6037}
{"id": "28a4c645", "question": "Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-31", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.66}
{"id": "46d1c250", "question": "Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.653}
{"id": "92212592", "question": "Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-10-22", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.6369}
{"id": "162ef358", "question": "Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.5878}
{"id": "5a64aa7e", "question": "Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-04", "confidence": 0.5448}
{"id": "e7010367", "question": "Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-03-05", "confidence": 0.7046}
{"id": "dc77f488", "question": "Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-30", "created_time": "2022-03-07", "confidence": 0.723}
{"id": "b54d37c7", "question": "What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "17", "resolution_time": "2024-03-14", "created_time": "2022-03-15", "confidence": 0.627}
{"id": "405720b9", "question": "Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-03-28", "confidence": 0.7278}
{"id": "ed30731c", "question": "Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-04-02", "confidence": 0.4981}
{"id": "ea903d1c", "question": "Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-04-08", "confidence": 0.6716}
{"id": "56423437", "question": "Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-10-23", "created_time": "2022-04-11", "confidence": 0.6643}
{"id": "4a4bc14a", "question": "Will Omicron XE be the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the US before June 19, 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-07-05", "created_time": "2022-04-15", "confidence": 0.5868}
{"id": "3276d204", "question": "Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.7175}
{"id": "0f98bb61", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.6981}
{"id": "56e71041", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-04-19", "confidence": 0.7125}
{"id": "f6518015", "question": "How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "below_lower_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-04-26", "confidence": 0.7641}
{"id": "242d8556", "question": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-06", "created_time": "2022-04-29", "confidence": 0.6586}
{"id": "ea53a8d7", "question": "Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-05-12", "confidence": 0.7156}
{"id": "142f93c3", "question": "Will the US Government designate Russia a \"State Sponsor of Terrorism\" by 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-05-17", "confidence": 0.5929}
{"id": "2a539dbc", "question": "[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "8350000", "resolution_time": "2022-06-01", "created_time": "2022-05-17", "confidence": 0.6449}
{"id": "b40e78ae", "question": "How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "226", "resolution_time": "2025-01-18", "created_time": "2022-05-18", "confidence": 0.6254}
{"id": "826904a6", "question": "How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "312", "resolution_time": "2025-01-21", "created_time": "2022-05-18", "confidence": 0.6334}
{"id": "98009d6d", "question": "Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-07-23", "created_time": "2022-05-19", "confidence": 0.4666}
{"id": "3223edf1", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "4867", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2022-05-19", "confidence": 0.5972}
{"id": "94d113d9", "question": "How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "29", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2022-05-19", "confidence": 0.555}
{"id": "981913b9", "question": "What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "294", "resolution_time": "2022-07-01", "created_time": "2022-05-20", "confidence": 0.6473}
{"id": "60fa3e5b", "question": "Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-11-29", "created_time": "2022-05-25", "confidence": 0.7129}
{"id": "246dbacc", "question": "Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2022-06-07", "confidence": 0.5737}
{"id": "80fa4899", "question": "Will the US CDC sponsor or support a nationwide metagenomic sequencing program before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2022-06-07", "confidence": 0.6802}
{"id": "ac8f65cb", "question": "Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2022-11-09", "created_time": "2022-06-19", "confidence": 0.5897}
{"id": "ac123d04", "question": "What will be the US FY 2024 budget (in $ millions) for the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA)?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-03-23", "created_time": "2022-06-29", "confidence": 0.5825}
{"id": "d5cef4c0", "question": "Will the UK have a Labour government before June 2030?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-05", "created_time": "2022-08-02", "confidence": 0.5516}
{"id": "c95ed20b", "question": "If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-04", "created_time": "2022-08-11", "confidence": 0.5818}
{"id": "40770473", "question": "Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-23", "created_time": "2022-08-11", "confidence": 0.7017}
{"id": "50918790", "question": "If the Australian \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-16", "created_time": "2022-08-16", "confidence": 0.4921}
{"id": "727827c9", "question": "Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an \"Indigenous Voice to Parliament\" before January 1, 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-10-13", "created_time": "2022-08-16", "confidence": 0.5706}
{"id": "6d6cb838", "question": "Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2022-08-18", "confidence": 0.6845}
{"id": "2b714f33", "question": "Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-06-14", "created_time": "2022-09-21", "confidence": 0.1246}
{"id": "0ba1249e", "question": "Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-23", "confidence": 0.7282}
{"id": "c9067fea", "question": "Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-01", "created_time": "2022-09-26", "confidence": 0.6442}
{"id": "205d3268", "question": "Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-01-02", "created_time": "2022-10-21", "confidence": 0.7726}
{"id": "75e6cb98", "question": "Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "above_upper_bound", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2022-10-21", "confidence": 0.7781}
{"id": "83b37048", "question": "Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol \"modesty police\" before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-23", "created_time": "2022-10-30", "confidence": 0.6317}
{"id": "a3da541f", "question": "How many goals will Erling Haaland score in the Premier League 2022/23 season?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "36", "resolution_time": "2023-05-28", "created_time": "2022-11-08", "confidence": 0.6264}
{"id": "c7db6caa", "question": "Will Twitter have a corporate credit rating in the \"C\"s or worse before July 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2022-11-10", "confidence": 0.6012}
{"id": "8df226bb", "question": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2022-11-25", "confidence": 0.6915}
{"id": "74fe60d1", "question": "When will China end Zero-COVID?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2022-12-26", "resolution_time": "2022-12-26", "created_time": "2022-11-29", "confidence": 0.5024}
{"id": "92fa6457", "question": "Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-30", "created_time": "2022-11-30", "confidence": 0.4763}
{"id": "4eb7e087", "question": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2022-12-22", "created_time": "2022-12-09", "confidence": 0.5724}
{"id": "173837ad", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-10", "confidence": 0.6931}
{"id": "73d11ae5", "question": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2022-12-10", "confidence": 0.6738}
{"id": "36812b6d", "question": "In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-11", "confidence": 0.6893}
{"id": "23c2ba5e", "question": "In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-20", "confidence": 0.6946}
{"id": "b16c2511", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5907}
{"id": "7616458d", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.7163}
{"id": "a9bb0e73", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.7185}
{"id": "4d7fd5b3", "question": "On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6983}
{"id": "b365f034", "question": "Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5563}
{"id": "e9eb419e", "question": "Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-29", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.4294}
{"id": "53ffcec2", "question": "In 2023, will Tether de-peg?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6702}
{"id": "f42db5c0", "question": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.4973}
{"id": "f77d3225", "question": "In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-14", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5425}
{"id": "0130a243", "question": "Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6135}
{"id": "057e0622", "question": "In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-05", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.5663}
{"id": "757e435f", "question": "In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.6159}
{"id": "63c108dc", "question": "In 2023 will someone release \"DALL-E, but for videos\"?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2022-12-21", "confidence": 0.7199}
{"id": "1f1301c7", "question": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-02-01", "created_time": "2022-12-23", "confidence": 0.675}
{"id": "bd17d5ad", "question": "Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-03-01", "created_time": "2022-12-23", "confidence": 0.5743}
{"id": "268d072c", "question": "Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-19", "created_time": "2022-12-24", "confidence": 0.5746}
{"id": "ac058fdc", "question": "Will Tether collapse before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2022-12-24", "confidence": 0.6591}
{"id": "9d225401", "question": "[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "15", "resolution_time": "2023-01-07", "created_time": "2023-01-03", "confidence": 0.4736}
{"id": "b11aa8cf", "question": "Will \"All Quiet on the Western Front\" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-11", "created_time": "2023-01-05", "confidence": 0.6359}
{"id": "ca789349", "question": "What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3", "resolution_time": "2024-02-16", "created_time": "2023-01-06", "confidence": 0.6585}
{"id": "e24eaf69", "question": "Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-02-24", "created_time": "2023-01-06", "confidence": 0.5319}
{"id": "4affc234", "question": "Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-01", "created_time": "2023-01-07", "confidence": 0.6403}
{"id": "1e8ca609", "question": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-01-07", "confidence": 0.7234}
{"id": "96139aef", "question": "Will former president Jair Bolsonaro be extradited back to Brazil before leaving the US?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-03-30", "created_time": "2023-01-09", "confidence": 0.5124}
{"id": "c68c1a43", "question": "Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-05", "created_time": "2023-01-09", "confidence": 0.5033}
{"id": "938dce01", "question": "How many ratings will Prince Harry's book Spare have on Amazon on January 20th at 7:00 pm GMT?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "15030", "resolution_time": "2023-01-20", "created_time": "2023-01-10", "confidence": 0.5635}
{"id": "03131096", "question": "Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-01-14", "confidence": 0.3794}
{"id": "eeaf2806", "question": "Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-01-27", "created_time": "2023-01-18", "confidence": 0.6735}
{"id": "6cbd452d", "question": "Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-30", "created_time": "2023-01-27", "confidence": 0.4539}
{"id": "086c41ec", "question": "Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2023-02-03", "confidence": 0.7292}
{"id": "3275a938", "question": "Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-02-03", "confidence": 0.7151}
{"id": "3825dd4f", "question": "Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-02-07", "confidence": 0.7251}
{"id": "40bf1107", "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-31", "created_time": "2023-03-09", "confidence": 0.6862}
{"id": "0529ea0a", "question": "When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-05-16", "resolution_time": "2024-05-13", "created_time": "2023-03-15", "confidence": 0.5044}
{"id": "85cd9a38", "question": "Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-03-16", "confidence": 0.6878}
{"id": "917c86cf", "question": "Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-04-16", "created_time": "2023-03-18", "confidence": 0.7231}
{"id": "2d7d448f", "question": "Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-04", "created_time": "2023-03-30", "confidence": 0.6358}
{"id": "17f95457", "question": "Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-04-05", "confidence": 0.7275}
{"id": "befaeb29", "question": "Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-04-20", "created_time": "2023-04-17", "confidence": 0.5296}
{"id": "4018b206", "question": "Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-05-12", "confidence": 0.6729}
{"id": "6a5d45fd", "question": "Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-05", "created_time": "2023-05-14", "confidence": 0.438}
{"id": "5fb0879f", "question": "Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-05-16", "confidence": 0.6778}
{"id": "a504e039", "question": "Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-09", "created_time": "2023-05-18", "confidence": 0.7035}
{"id": "a6ece292", "question": "Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-09", "created_time": "2023-05-18", "confidence": 0.7101}
{"id": "0307e568", "question": "Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-09", "created_time": "2023-05-18", "confidence": 0.3736}
{"id": "c66f5a74", "question": "Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-05-25", "confidence": 0.4953}
{"id": "70a650bc", "question": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-28", "created_time": "2023-05-27", "confidence": 0.5635}
{"id": "b3665c20", "question": "Will OpenAI release a \"product\" after ChatGPT before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-06-07", "confidence": 0.674}
{"id": "c0c801dc", "question": "Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-01", "created_time": "2023-06-07", "confidence": 0.6908}
{"id": "b9776561", "question": "When will Sergei Shoigu cease to hold the office of Minister of Defense of Russia?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-05-12", "resolution_time": "2024-05-12", "created_time": "2023-06-11", "confidence": 0.5183}
{"id": "b7b6037c", "question": "When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?", "type": "timeframe prediction", "resolution": "2024-05-13", "resolution_time": "2024-08-08", "created_time": "2023-06-11", "confidence": 0.5235}
{"id": "3e90d2f1", "question": "Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-06-13", "confidence": 0.6825}
{"id": "51fa9819", "question": "Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-06-22", "created_time": "2023-06-21", "confidence": 0.7075}
{"id": "69091630", "question": "Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-07-01", "created_time": "2023-06-24", "confidence": 0.7242}
{"id": "c839749e", "question": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-03-04", "created_time": "2023-07-24", "confidence": 0.6001}
{"id": "ffbd6240", "question": "Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-01", "created_time": "2023-07-28", "confidence": 0.4316}
{"id": "0258fce9", "question": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-08", "created_time": "2023-07-31", "confidence": 0.7295}
{"id": "2c3bce00", "question": "Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-08-11", "created_time": "2023-08-02", "confidence": 0.6909}
{"id": "b1494aa1", "question": "Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-11", "created_time": "2023-08-10", "confidence": 0.6982}
{"id": "35f0e65c", "question": "Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-09-30", "created_time": "2023-08-23", "confidence": 0.6597}
{"id": "c5ea25c9", "question": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-08-30", "created_time": "2023-08-23", "confidence": 0.5215}
{"id": "85efd865", "question": "Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-09-21", "created_time": "2023-08-29", "confidence": 0.4413}
{"id": "9bd41075", "question": "Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-09-07", "confidence": 0.664}
{"id": "5b173442", "question": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-10-01", "created_time": "2023-09-19", "confidence": 0.7189}
{"id": "f1ace1d9", "question": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-31", "created_time": "2023-09-22", "confidence": 0.5404}
{"id": "33ccee13", "question": "Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-12", "created_time": "2023-10-06", "confidence": 0.5733}
{"id": "2e01cb8e", "question": "Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-23", "created_time": "2023-10-10", "confidence": 0.6329}
{"id": "7fa6c61c", "question": "Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-08", "created_time": "2023-10-25", "confidence": 0.7289}
{"id": "ed730928", "question": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-06", "created_time": "2023-10-26", "confidence": 0.6919}
{"id": "67dcfb4f", "question": "Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-04-02", "created_time": "2023-10-31", "confidence": 0.6605}
{"id": "57ef6e5d", "question": "What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections' runoff?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "54", "resolution_time": "2023-11-29", "created_time": "2023-11-06", "confidence": 0.5359}
{"id": "286f54f8", "question": "Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.6903}
{"id": "fc1d0062", "question": "Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.6966}
{"id": "b7fbc87e", "question": "What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "5", "resolution_time": "2024-06-03", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.6343}
{"id": "3a0225b4", "question": "Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-31", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.7064}
{"id": "0e2f9b88", "question": "Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2023-11-11", "confidence": 0.7024}
{"id": "912402ec", "question": "Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-04", "created_time": "2023-11-13", "confidence": 0.534}
{"id": "0075dfb7", "question": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-11-13", "confidence": 0.6522}
{"id": "90588c73", "question": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2023-11-15", "confidence": 0.6816}
{"id": "40f383b9", "question": "Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-12-14", "created_time": "2023-11-16", "confidence": 0.4333}
{"id": "f40b9eac", "question": "Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2023-11-30", "created_time": "2023-11-17", "confidence": 0.5016}
{"id": "84c9faad", "question": "Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-06", "created_time": "2023-11-18", "confidence": 0.7238}
{"id": "84a50f6b", "question": "Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2023-12-15", "created_time": "2023-11-22", "confidence": 0.7263}
{"id": "03be62b8", "question": "Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-02-14", "created_time": "2023-12-02", "confidence": 0.6097}
{"id": "d23d81cd", "question": "Will Sam Altman leave  OpenAI (again) before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2023-12-08", "confidence": 0.7253}
{"id": "adb940e5", "question": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-17", "created_time": "2023-12-11", "confidence": 0.7258}
{"id": "62658d13", "question": "Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-07-05", "created_time": "2023-12-13", "confidence": 0.6084}
{"id": "80e037b7", "question": "Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-03", "created_time": "2023-12-15", "confidence": 0.7177}
{"id": "dab92b55", "question": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-20", "confidence": 0.6699}
{"id": "8f20e6c6", "question": "Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-18", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.5097}
{"id": "5bc8be95", "question": "Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-01-23", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.487}
{"id": "0967dbde", "question": "In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.7034}
{"id": "1cd60a2b", "question": "Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-08-14", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.2895}
{"id": "22a9ac5b", "question": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-07", "created_time": "2023-12-21", "confidence": 0.7226}
{"id": "a045df6d", "question": "Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-07", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.7151}
{"id": "286f04d7", "question": "Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-25", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.684}
{"id": "f32a19f7", "question": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.7095}
{"id": "dbe1728c", "question": "Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-05-30", "created_time": "2023-12-22", "confidence": 0.4917}
{"id": "e27eae17", "question": "Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-02", "created_time": "2023-12-23", "confidence": 0.7199}
{"id": "98ffdb6e", "question": "Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-01-04", "confidence": 0.66}
{"id": "f3369264", "question": "Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-01-26", "created_time": "2024-01-17", "confidence": 0.7192}
{"id": "c17aef99", "question": "Will a new or extended state of emergency be declared in Ecuador before April 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-08", "created_time": "2024-01-23", "confidence": 0.5625}
{"id": "6f5abeaa", "question": "Will gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar ('Fito') be in Ecuadorian custody before April 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-01", "created_time": "2024-01-23", "confidence": 0.6822}
{"id": "465bf962", "question": "Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-02-26", "created_time": "2024-01-24", "confidence": 0.5498}
{"id": "2a7547e7", "question": "What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "80", "resolution_time": "2024-02-16", "created_time": "2024-01-24", "confidence": 0.6166}
{"id": "8c381d37", "question": "For how many seconds will Taylor Swift appear on screen during the Super Bowl?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "51", "resolution_time": "2024-02-12", "created_time": "2024-01-30", "confidence": 0.6153}
{"id": "d16e0277", "question": "Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-09-23", "created_time": "2024-02-01", "confidence": 0.4953}
{"id": "6728ccbb", "question": "Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-08-11", "created_time": "2024-02-03", "confidence": 0.6252}
{"id": "efe44702", "question": "Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-01", "created_time": "2024-02-21", "confidence": 0.6792}
{"id": "b217d148", "question": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-07", "created_time": "2024-03-01", "confidence": 0.6999}
{"id": "6c23983d", "question": "What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on April 1, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "69702", "resolution_time": "2024-04-03", "created_time": "2024-03-06", "confidence": 0.631}
{"id": "56852e91", "question": "Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-03-23", "created_time": "2024-03-06", "confidence": 0.3016}
{"id": "ed5ea2d9", "question": "Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-01", "created_time": "2024-03-13", "confidence": 0.6701}
{"id": "bd0d5b56", "question": "What will be the weekly change in U.S. natural gas underground storage in the lower 48 states (in billions of cubic feet) for the week ending April 4, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "24", "resolution_time": "2024-04-11", "created_time": "2024-03-18", "confidence": 0.6296}
{"id": "0e049c9a", "question": "Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-04-03", "created_time": "2024-03-20", "confidence": 0.6017}
{"id": "dd31b0a4", "question": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-01", "created_time": "2024-04-07", "confidence": 0.6966}
{"id": "bc67c76c", "question": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-08-23", "created_time": "2024-04-07", "confidence": 0.2743}
{"id": "2d6f60ad", "question": "Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-16", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.7103}
{"id": "fdf49f1e", "question": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.6457}
{"id": "eebc8efe", "question": "What will be the electric vehicle sales share of light duty vehicles in the United States in April 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "9", "resolution_time": "2024-05-13", "created_time": "2024-04-11", "confidence": 0.5887}
{"id": "16837f75", "question": "Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2024-04-13", "confidence": 0.668}
{"id": "bfb8dbfb", "question": "What will be the value of Bitcoin (in USD) on May 15, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "66267", "resolution_time": "2024-05-17", "created_time": "2024-04-15", "confidence": 0.5787}
{"id": "2afe7481", "question": "As of May 21, 2024, how many tech employees will have been laid off in 2024, according to layoffs.fyi?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "84060", "resolution_time": "2024-05-21", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.6454}
{"id": "7f8ebf09", "question": "What will be the winning time in the 2024 Kentucky Derby?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "123", "resolution_time": "2024-05-04", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.3925}
{"id": "a0cfa26a", "question": "Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.6801}
{"id": "f574c624", "question": "What will be the average daily count of adult Chinook salmon observed at the Bonneville Dam for the seven-day period ending May 7th, 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "3861", "resolution_time": "2024-05-08", "created_time": "2024-04-19", "confidence": 0.5747}
{"id": "939812ef", "question": "Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-14", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.662}
{"id": "458c81d1", "question": "What will be Apple's earnings per share for the quarter ending March 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "2", "resolution_time": "2024-05-02", "created_time": "2024-04-22", "confidence": 0.6153}
{"id": "9a962d7c", "question": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-01", "created_time": "2024-04-24", "confidence": 0.6913}
{"id": "c3993c47", "question": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a ruling in the Trump immunity case before May 20, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-05-20", "created_time": "2024-04-29", "confidence": 0.714}
{"id": "17f169f2", "question": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-06-06", "created_time": "2024-05-13", "confidence": 0.6962}
{"id": "77474331", "question": "Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-11-22", "created_time": "2024-07-11", "confidence": 0.7012}
{"id": "369a5f1f", "question": "Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-07-15", "confidence": 0.7223}
{"id": "95c21a04", "question": "Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-07-23", "created_time": "2024-07-15", "confidence": 0.4978}
{"id": "a043041e", "question": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-10-01", "created_time": "2024-07-23", "confidence": 0.6692}
{"id": "fbac245c", "question": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-09-09", "created_time": "2024-08-19", "confidence": 0.3462}
{"id": "1dbafcb1", "question": "What will China's youth unemployment rate be for August 2024?", "type": "quantity estimation", "resolution": "19", "resolution_time": "2024-09-21", "created_time": "2024-09-02", "confidence": 0.4431}
{"id": "7537f514", "question": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-10-02", "created_time": "2024-09-19", "confidence": 0.51}
{"id": "a8e0f8f5", "question": "Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2024-11-15", "created_time": "2024-09-29", "confidence": 0.4653}
{"id": "e257c09c", "question": "Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-11-12", "confidence": 0.6905}
{"id": "0ca9b66a", "question": "Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2024-12-24", "created_time": "2024-11-18", "confidence": 0.4064}
{"id": "141c751a", "question": "Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-11-19", "confidence": 0.6495}
{"id": "679613e5", "question": "Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world at the end of 2024?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-11-19", "confidence": 0.6162}
{"id": "5275a8ca", "question": "Will the undiagnosed disease currently spreading in the Democratic Republic of the Congo be identified as Influenza, RSV, or COVID-19 before January 7, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-01", "created_time": "2024-12-09", "confidence": 0.7076}
{"id": "71a08104", "question": "Will the majority of Russian soldiers in Syria withdraw before January 5, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "no", "resolution_time": "2025-01-05", "created_time": "2024-12-12", "confidence": 0.7008}
{"id": "0c6e609a", "question": "Will the TikTok ban be in effect in the United States on January 20, 2025?", "type": "Boolean question", "resolution": "yes", "resolution_time": "2025-01-20", "created_time": "2024-12-30", "confidence": 0.497}