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All budgets contain a certain level of silliness. But as absurd as it is to suggest delivering a budget containing a promise of a surplus next year means you are now “back in the black”, that was not the silliest part of the budget narrative. |
Last year’s budget (less than 12 months ago) predicted net debt would top out at 18.6% of GDP in 2017-18. Six months later in the December mid-year economic and fiscal outlook the government was even more optimistic, suggesting the peak would be 18.5% of GDP. |
But just five months later in last week’s budget the peak year had not only shifted out to 2018-19 but increased to 19.2% of GDP. In the space of five months the prediction for net debt this year went from $315.9bn to $373.5bn – an increase of one pergentage point of GDP. |
So it is not the easiest thing to get these numbers right. A lot can happen in a short period after a budget is written. |
My favourite example is the last Costello budget in 2007, which predicted “the world economy is expected to continue to expand at a strong rate, with world GDP forecast to increase by 5%t in 2007 and 2008” with “expectations for strong growth in China, India, Japan and the euro area. Growth in the United States is expe... |
That budget predicted the USA economy would grow by 3% in 2008; instead it fell by 0.1%, before falling a further 2.5% in 2009. |
So yes, reality has a way of mugging budget figures, but that doesn’t mean we should give them a pass. This year’s budget predictions for net debt are dumb even without the benefit of hindsight. |
And yet nowhere does the budget predict anything close to the mining boom of the early 2000s that allowed so much of the debt to be paid off through budget surpluses. |
Similarly nominal GDP growth is predicted to be much slower on average – around 5.3% compared to the average of 6.2% that occurred during the Costello debt paying-off years. That is crucial because nominal GDP growth is a better indicator of tax revenue than is real GDP growth. |
But not only is this budget predicting we will pay off debt as quickly as occurred during a mining boom despite not having anywhere near the same level of economic growth, it also suggests this will happen without the benefit of privatisations that occurred under the Howard government. |
Paying off debt is much easier when you can sell assets like Telstra, airports, Dasfleet, and the national transmission network. Stephen Koukoulous estimated around three quarters of the debt was paid off through asset sales; sales that are not available to any future governments. |
But over and above the questions of paying off net debt, the real question is why are we at all concerned about getting back to surplus now? |
The reality is the economy is not performing well. |
A good measure of economic performance is “adjusted nominal GDP growth”, which combines real GDP growth and the annual growth of inflation. Given we aim for between 2.75% and 3.25% annual GDP growth and inflation growth of within 2% and 3%, this suggests a nominal GDP growth of between 4.75% and 6.25% is the economic s... |
During the mining boom the economy was growing well above this sweet spot. In such times running a budget surplus is sensible – it helps take some of the heat out of the economy. But we are not in such times now – the economy is crying out for stimulus – the type that comes from government spending and deficits. |
Now is not a time for engaging in chest beating about predicted surpluses and net debt levels in years to come, but rather for worrying about what is to be done to improve the economy right now. |
Angie is not her real name (I’m protecting the oblivious). For when it comes to Thanksgiving dinner, the other thing Angie is not is a cook. |
Actually, that’s not fair. The only thing she has ever cooked that I have had the dubious pleasure of eating is a Thanksgiving turkey. Which, two times in a three-year-period of holiday feasting, has been defrosted a week too soon, cooked, cut up, frozen, thawed out — again — and reheated. |
The first time it happened I thought it was an idiotic fluke, stupid but forgivable, like putting aluminum foil in the microwave (hey, it happens!). |
Some background: I love my brother and sister-in-law. I love their easy-going, live-and-let-live attitude. Their first date was to an outdoor Grateful Dead concert. That afternoon, they tie-dyed a sheet to take along to use as a blanket on the ground. If that wasn’t a sign of a match made in heaven, I don’t know what w... |
For Brad and Stef, Thanksgiving isn’t formal or stuffy. It’s a warm, rollicking free-for-all-potluck with their friends. And in recent years my parents and Mark and I have crashed the party. |
In true form, their reaction to the four of us inviting ourselves to what really is a party is basically “what’re a few more chairs?” But for me, who steely clings to traditions, I have to admit it’s taken a little getting used to. |
What’s with those stuffing balls, the size of baseballs? What? No steamy bowl of my mom’s lightly seasoned, oh-so-satisfying stuffing pulled from the bird? |
Are those pierogies? Holy carb overload – as if the mashed potatoes weren’t going to be enough on this high feast day. |
Don’t tell me that’s canned cranberry sauce? Where are the “real” chopped berries cooked with just the right amount of sugar and spice and plenty that’s nice? |
What happened to the bourbon-laced sweet potatoes? Dotted with pecans, they are pretty but potent. I’ve often thought that if I got pulled over on the drive home I’d have to confess to the officer that, no, I hadn’t been drinking – but I did have two helpings of sweet potatoes. |
And then there is Angie’s death-wish turkey. |
The first year, Angie breezily laughed as she explained how she had bought the turkey but then it defrosted in her car — her car!!! — and so she didn’t know what else to do but cook it and refreeze it until the big day. This was also the year my brother wanted to try out a turkey fryer, the craze that ignited countless... |
When no one got sick, I thought we had dodged a 20-pound Butterball bullet. |
Flash-forward to last Thanksgiving. There are pies, mashed potatoes, ham, rolls. Casseroles, the homey baked corn and broccoli-and-rice concoctions slathered with cheese and sour cream and butter that have been at my mom’s Thanksgiving table all these years, are front and center in the buffet spread out on the kitchen ... |
And Angie has yet another turkey story. This time it defrosted much earlier than she had expected. By about a week. What else could she do but cook it, freeze it, and reheat it? |
What else, indeed. As we crowd into the dining room to say grace for all of our blessings, we hold hands — the simplest of my family’s traditions. We circle around the table, squeezing to make room, three generations of family and friends coming together to carve out a new way of celebrating a centuries-old holiday. Be... |
So, God bless the turkey. Keep us safe. Keep us laughing. Keep us together. |
CLEMSON, S.C. -- Connecticut executed its first step out of the loser's bracket according to plan Saturday at the Clemson Regional. |
The Huskies jumped out to an early 10-run lead and were able to save their top pitchers and avenge an early-season loss in a 13-3 victory over in-state rival Sacred Heart. |
Billy Ferriter's two-out, bases-loaded single triggered a five-run second inning for UConn (42-18-1), which advances to play the Clemson-Coastal Carolina loser on Sunday. Three runs scored on the play thanks to an errant throw to the plate. |
His team ahead 10-0, UConn coach Jim Penders elected to pull starter Greg Nappo for possible use later in the tournament. Nappo threw only 36 pitches. |
"It was critical for us to get ahead and put up a crooked number," UConn coach Jim Penders said. "We wanted to get (Nappo) out so he could pitch Monday." |
UConn finished with 18 hits, including four from Ryan Fuller and three each from Mike Nemeth and Ferriter. |
UConn hitters didn't take many strikes from Sacred Heart starter Nick Leiningen (7-4), who tried to keep them off-balance with breaking pitches and was knocked out in the third, allowing eight runs. |
"I think we definitely decided to turn it on and go after those pitches," Nemeth said. |
Sacred Heart (34-23) scored three in the fourth inning off Pat Butler (3-1), who followed with three scoreless innings. |
The Pioneers beat UConn 5-4 in March. |
The Pioneers, champions of the Northeast Conference tournament, were outscored 24-4 in their two regional losses. |
"We are disappointed we didn't play a little better," Sacred Heart coach Nick Giaquinto said. |
The following people were booked into the Carson City Jail. All suspects are considered innocent until proven guilty in court. |
— Justin J. Anderson, 29, of Carson City, was arrested at 6:05 a.m. on Sunday in the 2000 block of North Carson Street on felony suspicion of assault with a deadly weapon, misdemeanor suspicion of trespassing and misdemeanor suspicion of destruction of property. Bail was set at $20,875. |
— Justin Wayne Richard, 22, a welder from Carson City, was arrested at 1:22 a.m. on Sunday on Highway 50 at Red Rock for misdemeanor contempt of court. Cash-only bail was set at $1,105. |
— Frederick William Masterson, 32, a transient carpenter, was arrested at 3:30 a.m. on Sunday in the 1800 block of Mercury Way on misdemeanor suspicion of trespassing. Bail was set at $210. |
— David Duenas Hernandez, 27, unemployed, of Carson City, was arrested at 6:02 p.m. Saturday in the Carson City Sheriff’s Office Detention Center on felony suspicion of possessing a stolen credit card and felony suspicion of using personal identification information of another to avoid prosecution. Bail was set at $40,... |
— Robert Gregory, 27, unemployed, of Carson City, was arrested at 5 p.m. in the 500 block of West College Parkway on misdemeanor suspicion of failure to appear in court. Bail was set at $320. |
— Sidney Wiley, 26, unemployed, of Carson City, was arrested at 5:20 p.m. on Saturday in the 500 block of West College Parkway on misdemeanor suspicion of domestic battery, felony suspicion of assault with a deadly weapon and misdemeanor suspicion of trespassing. Bail was set at $23,315. |
— Rick Stone, 50, an unemployed transient, was arrested at 2:46 p.m. Saturday in the 500 block of East Williams Street on misdemeanor suspicion of petty larceny and misdemeanor suspicion of trespassing. Bail was set at $530. |
— Louis Jay Fehr, 32, an installer, was arrested at 5 p.m. on Saturday in the 1400 block of North Edmonds on a felony warrant for forgery. A cash-only bail was set at $1,100. |
— Ronald Doer, 32, a transient cook, was arrested at 12:12 p.m. on Saturday in the 17000 block of North Carson on a misdemeanor warrant for failure to appear on a traffic violation. Bail was set at $1,265. |
BRYAN EATON/Staff photo. An American robin perched on a rhododendron bush on Gardner Street in Salisbury might be confused with the weather expecting it to be more spring-like at this time of year. More confusion is possible for the thrush as snow is possible next Tuesday. |
Kicking off the annual Boston College concert series, Daya performed on Stokes Lawn Saturday for the third annual Stokes Set. Originally from Pennsylvania, Daya debuted her first single “Hide Away” in 2015 and has made a name for herself featured on tracks by The Chainsmokers, Gryffin, Illenium and RL Grime. Students g... |
Complete with lights and a routine consisting of dancing effortlessly around the stage, Daya began her performance by spreading positive vibes through the crowd and got the crowd of students ready to dance through the night. The first song that really made the crowd come alive was “New.” The beat electrified the stage ... |
When Daya performed her first single “Hide Away,” it was as if everyone in the crowd already knew the lyrics. The energy emanating from Daya and from her fans was palpable. Each sang the song to each other, Daya to her fans and her fans to the artist on stage. Watching people get really into the performance made the at... |
Seeing Daya perform her features with major EDM producers was a unique and special aspect of her concert— it was as if she had crafted this concert specifically for the BC students who came out to watch. But this was especially the case for those who love the style of Gryffin and Illenium. Watching the light show outdo... |
After exiting the stage to cheers and applause, Daya returned for an encore playing “Don’t Let Me Down” by the Chainsmokers. Not only did she absolutely nail the performance, but every single person in the crowd erupted in harmony with her as she performed on stage. It was impossible not to have fun during the concert ... |
Matt Wilson, Chief Creative Officer of Privateer Press & Director of the film Wolfsbane will be sitting down with NERD TREK for an exclusive interview. Privateer Press is responsible for the WARMACHINE product line as well as HORDES, IRON KINGDOMS, and No Quarter Magazine. The movie Wolfsbane is Wilson’s first foray in... |
D&D: Neverwinter – Wizard’s Fiery Phoenix? |
While the tennis project reportedly closed down last year, the projects in shooting, cross country (running) and golf — which the Army believed would be drafted into the Olympics sooner than later — will be closed down in two months. Ajai Masand reports. |
In mid-2005, the Indian army declared it had a mission. Armyman Rajyavardhan Rathore had won India's first individual Olympic silver at Athens the previous year and the Army, flush with pride, declared open Mission Olympics, a long-term project that they believed could produce a number of Olympic champions. |
Though the details of the project — splashily announced with banners and billboards around Delhi — were shrouded in secrecy, most in sporting circles hoped that with the Army involved, India's dismal track record in Olympic sport would change. |
On April 1, 2009, the ‘Mission Olympics’ “catch-them-young” scheme here in Delhi is expected to die a quiet death yet the reasons for this demise remain obscure. |
While the tennis project reportedly closed down last year, the projects in shooting, cross country (running) and golf — which the Army believed would be drafted into the Olympics sooner than later — will be closed down in two months. |
Officially, while the Army remains mum on the Mission — the officer in-charge, Lt Col Javed Hussain, would not confirm or deny the development — top sources involved told HT that Delhi was done with it. Sources said coaches had been told to be on stand-by to hand over the equipment and other sports paraphernalia to the... |
A high-ranking officer said the official explanation given to them for the closure was that a similar “catch-them-young scheme” was being run by the Army's Boys Sports Company (BSC). “So there was a kind of overlapping. Perhaps that's why the Army decided to close it down.” The strange part is that the BSC has been aro... |
Sportspersons under the project were entitled to weapons, equipment, schooling, boarding, training etc all free of cost. |
New York (Tadias) – Here comes another anthropological discovery from Ethiopia: the oldest known fossil of human ancestor (3.6 million years old) has been found in the Afar region of Ethiopia – unseating the famous 3.2 million years old Lucy (Dinqnesh) — whose skeletal remains are currently touring the United States. |
The new bones, which are much bigger than Lucy, have been named “Kadanuumuu,” (kah-dah-nuu-muu) which means “big man” in the Afar language. |
Ardi: Oldest Fossil of Human Ancestor? |
Congratulations to Dr. Yohannes Haile Selassie and his team on unearthing and reporting of an older Australopithecus afarensis male species skeletal remains in the Afar region of Ethiopia. Kadanuumuu or the ‘Big Man’ helps to further clarify our understanding of the evolution of the early human species. It is my hope t... |
If confirmed this is big news for science. And yes, it will generate a great amount of tourism attraction. This is the first time I am hearing that “Lucy” is in the U.S. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Is Ethiopia crazy or what? “Lucy,” “Selam,” and “Kadanuumuu” or the ‘Big Man’ need to be locked up in some bullet proof glass muse... |
Yes, they’re crazy. they are supposed to keep these fossils in a very secured place to attract tourism in the future. |
I agree. We need to preserve and display these treasures in Ethiopia. It should be named “We are all Ethiopians Museum”. |
The Department of Safety and Security (DSS) is responsible for providing leadership, operational support and oversight of the security management system to enable the safest and most efficient conduct of the security programmes and activities of the United Nations System. The Principal Security Adviser (PSA) reports to... |
Under the supervision of the United Nations Designated Official (DO) for security and the overall guidance and direction from senior managers in the United Nations Department of Safety and Security, the incumbent of the post will serve as the principal security adviser to the DO and to the Security Management Team (SMT... |
Is thoroughly familiar with the UNSMS approach to risk management and ensures timely development and review of the Security Risk Management (SRM) process, the management of resultant security risk management measures and Residential Security Measures, and other relevant requirements of UNSMS security policies and guide... |
Manages all security personnel under his/her supervision; directs the mission’s security sections and units, including executive protection, investigations and fire safety. In the context of integrated missions, manages security-related budgets, resources and assets, and oversees the performance of security contractors... |
Establishes, chairs and leads the Security Cell comprising of Security Officers of UNSMS organizations; coordinates safety and security arrangements with representatives of UNSMS organizations; establishes and maintains a liaison mechanism with NGOs under the “Saving Lives Together” framework; develops and maintains co... |
Ensures timely development and review of Security Plans and their integral components, including, but not limited to, contingency and crisis response plans, standard operating procedures, emergency communications, warden systems and staff lists, as per requirements of UNSMS security policies and procedures. |
Oversees adherence of all UNSMS personnel and organizations to security policies and procedures, including Security Plan, SRM Process, promoting understanding and support for security requirements and reporting cases of non-compliance to the DO and the SMT; monitors and analyzes trends of security incidents affecting U... |
Ensures that the DO, SMT and UNDSS are kept regularly updated in a timely manner on security developments, providing required briefings and reports; ensures that all UNSMS personnel receive timely security updates, alerts and warnings when the security situation warrants it; shares security information with NGOs under ... |
Directs in-country security training programmes, ensuring that all UNSMS personnel and their eligible family members receive the required security trainings and briefings. |
During emergency/crisis situations, is responsible for UNDSS inputs for security resources to Flash Appeals, Consolidated Appeals, Central Emergency Response Funds (CERF) and bilateral donor requests; is responsible and accountable for the management of extra-budgetary (XB) funding and resources relating to security. |
- Remains calm in stressful situations. |
- Demonstrates knowledge of strategies and commitment to the goal of gender balance in staffing. |
- Makes tough decisions when necessary. |
Advanced University degree (Master’s degree or equivalent) in risk, disaster or emergency management, social/political science, military science, public administration, law enforcement, law or related area. A first-level university degree in any of these fields, in combination with two additional years of qualifying wo... |
A minimum of 15 (fifteen) years progressively responsible experience in security, risk and disaster management in the public or private areas, such as national security, military or police, or in a corporate environment is required. Of these, at least 10 (ten) years of command or leadership experience is required. A mi... |
English and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat. For this post, fluency in English is required. |
Staff members are subject to the authority of the Secretary-General and to assignment by him or her. In this context, all staff are expected to move periodically to new functions in their careers in accordance with established rules and procedures. Candidates applying for this JO will normally be required to rotate amo... |
Those candidates who apply and are subsequently recommended and endorsed for the job opening, but are not selected for the current vacant position, will be placed on the roster for similar functions at the level and category of the job opening for possible future selection. |
Candidates will not be considered for employment with the United Nations if they have committed violations of international human rights law, violations of international humanitarian law, sexual exploitation or sexual abuse, or crimes other than minor traffic offences, or if there are reasonable grounds to believe that... |
In trading on Wednesday, shares of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR - Get Report) touched a new 52-week high of $14.74/share. That's a 51.33% rise, or $5 per share from the 52-week low of $9.74 set back on 02/11/2016. That means at today's intraday high, any investor who purchased IVR stock any time over the past 52 ... |
Over the past six months, insiders have been scooping up shares, and those bets are now paying off handsomely. As summarized by the table below, IVR has seen 2 different instances of insiders buying over the trailing six month period. |
The chart below shows where IVR has traded over the past year, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages included. |
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