Datasets:
Recag
/
C4_34

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
text
stringlengths
12
56.8k
Yet the Institute for U.S. and Canada Studies's Shumilin argued Moscow is inclined to carry out a purely defensive operation, not an offensive one.
"It is not a matter of helping Assad to regain control of the country," he said. "At least, no one in Moscow has declared such intentions."
Shumilin thinks Moscow's actions in Syria may also be providing a diversion from its controversies elsewhere. "The Kremlin would like to shift attention from the impasse in Ukraine to its actions in Syria," he said.
As a bonus, Shumilin added, the actions in Syria play well to the militaristic fever that has gripped a significant part of Putin's electorate for more than a year.
Lena Dunham Says She's 6 Months Sober After "Misusing Benzos"
Lena Dunham has reached six months of sobriety after "misusing" benzodiazepines, specifically Klonopin.
The Girls star opened up about this milestone during Monday's episode of Dax Shepard's podcast, Armchair Expert.
According to the National Alliance on Mental Illness, Klonopin is a benzodiazepine that can be used to treat panic disorders. Dunham told Shepard benzodiazepines are often "normalized" in their industry and that she started taking them when she had to "show up to things I didn't feel equipped to show up for." At first, it seemed like the drug helped.
"I wasn't just happy," the actress explained. "It was like suddenly I felt like the part of me I knew was there was freed up to do her thing."
However, she soon started taking the drug much more frequently.
"It stopped being I take one when I fly," she said, "and it started being, like, I take one when I'm awake."
She was later diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder. Even though the drug wasn't making her feel better, she worried about what her life would be like if she stopped taking it.
"It stopped feeling like I had panic attacks and started feeling like I was a living panic attack," Dunham said. "The only thing that was notable were the moments in the day when I didn't feel like I was going to barf and faint."
In fact, Dunham admitted "there was a solid three years where I was, to put it lightly, misusing benzos." Now that Dunham is sober, she claims the "literal smell of a pill bottle makes me want to throw up."
"I thought medication was allowing me to be more myself," she said. "I can see all of the things that the world [brought] upon me. I don't blame myself for my illness; I don't blame myself for the sexual abuse I experienced; I don't blame myself for the physical abuse I experienced; I don't blame myself for the challenges of being a woman in this world, and an anxious woman in this world, and living in this body. But I do see the way that I medicated myself, negatively impacted people around me, and decimated my decision making and hurt my creativity. So, I just feel, literally like, on my knees grateful every single day."
To hear her whole interview, listen to the episode of Armchair Expert.
Sir Seretse Khama Airport (SSKA) police have no leads in a case in which a half-naked dead woman was dumped in a dense bush at Ledumadumane. Police probes are yet to lead to an arrest or detention in the case.
The clarification came after reports that a man alleged to have had a sexual relationship with the deceased prior to the incident was arrested by the police and was being held in custody.
The acting SSKA station commander, assistant Superintendent Michael Mooketsi Mosothwane dismissed the report as false. “No suspect(s) has been arrested yet in relation to the incident, but investigations into the matter are ongoing. We are working tirelessly to resolve the matter,” Mosothwane said.
man allegedly wrote down his phone number on a piece of a paper and gave it to the deceased.
When the deceased was discovered, it is alleged that the police searched her and found the piece of paper inside one of her pockets. It is alleged that the police called the number, leading to the arrest of the man who is allegedly still detained to date.
At the time, the police suspected that the 32-year-old woman from Mahalapye, names still withheld, might have been raped before she was killed.
The police are still awaiting autopsy results as the deceased was immediately taken to Princess Marina Hospital to establish, amongst others, if she was sexually assaulted or not.
Several days passed before her family know her whereabouts when the police made a public announcement calling for her identification at the morgue.
Richard Kelertas: Potash Prices Headed to $750?
The Energy Report: Are we at the beginning of a global bull market in food, Richard?
Richard Kelertas: Yes. We believe the upward price pressure started after the economic crisis in 2009, and it could remain a substantial bull market until stocks:use ratios (carryover:total use) in most major food stocks—grains, corn, soy beans—can be brought back up to 10-year averages. Currently, the ratios are well below those averages. There doesn't seem to be any reprieve in sight, unless we have two to three years of bumper harvests in all grains around the world.
TER: Rising food prices usually mean increased demand for fertilizer, but that hasn't necessarily been the case this time around. Do you believe the share prices of potash equities have exceeded potential growth rates?
RK: No, not at all. In retrospect, 2009 was a tough year for a lot of fertilizer producers. Farmers had to delay applications, even though they started to see crop shortages followed by slowly rising crop prices. We didn't really see fertilizer-price recovery until 2010. Around March/April, or mid 2010, we started to see a pickup in fertilizer stock prices. It was slow at first and, in some cases, it has been muted; but at the beginning of 2011, it started to surge dramatically. Now it's come off again on the expectation that all commodity prices, including that of oil, will come off as the global economy slows down (especially in China). But our view is that this is just temporary, and that these stock prices don't really reflect anywhere near the fertilizer prices we are looking at in 18–24 months. So, these current stock prices are only reflecting mid-cycle, but nothing near peak, prices.
TER: What is the real driver for fertilizer stocks? China, India?
RK: It's global, definitely global. China kick-started the demand increase by buying corn on a large scale, but it suffered a significant drought in the southern part of the country. That was followed by several crop failures, droughts, weather—you name it—throughout the world in different locations. However, the main driver, going 5–10 years out, is population growth and the increase of the middle class' diet requirements. That's the big driver.
TER: What about phosphates versus potash? Will phosphates catch up in the foreseeable future?
RK: Yes, eventually. Not much phosphate supply is coming out over the next 18 months, so it's going to catch up. There's no doubt about it.
TER: What about global potash and phosphates prices? They are not consistent across the world. Do you see them evening out in time?
RK: Well, it all depends. You could look at history and assume that they will, but governments' export/import restrictions can have a dramatic effect on regional prices. So, it all depends. I suspect that small regional differences will start to coincide at some point. Prices are lower in China, India, Indonesia and the United States. In another six to nine months, we could see increases in all regions.
TER: Is there an arbitrage opportunity for investors there?
RK: Oh, yes, but not really in stock prices. You'd have to play the futures markets and the actual commodity.
TER: Do you have a price forecast for potash? And, will we ever see $1,000/ton again?
RK: No, we won't see $1,000/ton. I don't expect the type of hoarding experienced back in 2007 and 2008 will happen again to the same degree. We certainly will get speculation; but, typically, the amount of cash that's available, the lending requirements and margin calls are more stringent than they were three years ago. You will probably see one-half of the speculative run-up in potash that we saw back in 2007. This time it is coming from actual supply/demand dynamics, not speculative investors gobbling up contracts. So, $1,000/ton?—I'll never say never, but I think the next peak we'll see is probably more in the $700–$750/ton range.
TER: Do you have a timeframe for that?
RK: Yes, about 24 months.
TER: How do you start your due-diligence process on something like a potash stock?
RK: Well, there are two different types of companies—the junior exploration plays, which are predevelopment, and the established producers. The established producers are companies like Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU), PotashCorp (TSX:POT; NYSE:POT), The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) and Intrepid Potash, Inc. (NYSE:IPI). The due diligence you have to do on those is pretty basic, and a lot of information is available from published sources on the Internet. So, the amount of research is directly related to the amount of information available—and there's really not much you can't find. We sit down with management to go through the numbers, and then tour one or two of the operations. We consider the overall picture on different types of fertilizers to determine if this stock is positioned well and rank it next to its peers.
For junior developers, which are either in pre-exploration or exploration phase, it's more difficult. We spend a lot of time with the management team, going onsite, talking to the geologist and making sure the resource is there. We also ensure that there are no outside risks—no native land claims or land lease difficulties. We want to make sure a company can secure land and exploration leases over a contiguous area, so it will be smooth sailing when drilling starts.
After that, it depends on how well the company is financed, the quality of its management team and the level of its compliance and its experience in the field. Finally, you have to ask: "What are the barriers to entry for these particular players?" It could be country, infrastructure or any of a whole list of risks. The amount of due diligence you do on the smaller companies is a lot more than you would do on the larger ones.
TER: Do you like to see smaller companies being managed, especially in the field, by people who have come from larger companies?
RK: No, not necessarily. It depends on their experience level. They may have worked and been successful at smaller companies in the past. A lot of the guys who work for larger companies haven't had to go through the exploration phase—they've just gone through the production phase. So, the smaller companies don't really need an expert in production quite yet—they need exploration experts. That's where the difference lies.
TER: Do you consider these junior exploration companies you're following value stories or growth stories?
RK: Well, it's a combination; but sometimes you don't have the value yet. Some might be growth stories only because they haven't yet established the resource. Even if a company hasn't started drilling yet, we look at the historical holes done 15–20 years ago. And if it shows some good concentrations of potassium chloride (KCL) or phosphorus, we're happy to follow it along and look at the company as a growth story even though the value hasn't been established.
TER: How long do you typically follow a company before you initiate coverage?
RK: Well, I spend a lot of time with management and going through the numbers. So, we probably spend two to three months with a company before we initiate coverage.
TER: Where are you finding your desired characteristics now?
RK: Right now, the ones that we spend a lot of time on are Allana Potash (TSX.V:AAA) and Karnalyte Resources Inc. (TSX:KRN). These two companies have tremendous potential for resource expansion, as they've done drilling on only a fraction of their properties. Allana is in Ethiopia, and Karnalyte is in Saskatchewan.
Another one that we're looking at is Passport Potash Inc. (TSX.V:PPI, OTCQX:PPRTF) in Arizona near Holbrook. It has a lot of potential based on exploration work conducted there about 25 years ago. Passport's management team has done a lot of advance work, and drilling is just starting now. But the history indicates, to us, that there will be some fairly large deposits.
We're looking at another one called Aguia Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGR), which is a Brazilian phosphorus and potash play—a combination play which is fairly unique. We're doing more work on it, but we think it's going to an interesting value-and-growth story there also.
TER: The first two you mentioned, Allana and Karnalyte, seem to have a tremendous sense of urgency. Drilling is faster than expected.
TER: Allana has 105 million tons (Mt.) potassium chloride in the inferred category. Ultimately, how large could this resource be?
RK: The company is looking at the first 11 drill holes and some of the 3-D seismic data, but it has not made anything public yet. The NI 43-101 will be out in mid May. From our experience, we believe that we could be looking at 500 million to 1 billion tons of potash—mineable potash.
TER: Let's just take the low end of that, 500 Mt. of mineable potash. You've got a target price of $2.50 here, which represents 50% upside from where Allana is right now. But, at 1 billion tons of mineable potash, where could that take this stock?
RK: Well, if you put the sensitivity on the mineable potash, it could take AAA's price well over $10–$12/share quite easily. It depends on the grade; so, there are a lot of 'ifs.' That's why we make a sensitivity table, just to get an idea. If the grade is about 35%, which seems to be the case with the last four or five drill holes, it could be a 25% average grade. That would take us north of $10/share.
TER: Well, grades seem to be high, so far, from what I've seen.
RK: Very, very high—and Allana can do open-pit mining.
TER: There are some near-term catalysts; do you believe these catalysts are priced in or discounted to the stock?
RK: No, not at all. But I would say that many unanswered questions remain. There are still some risks and issues having to do with the country, location, infrastructure and things of that nature. There's also a continuing view that commodity prices, potentially, have topped off here for the short term. We'll probably see other commodities pull back; but, essentially, the farmer is sitting with lots of money in his pocket and is starting to apply more fertilizer.
TER: Karnalyte was the second company you mentioned, I noted that it was up just 2% over the last three months while Allana was up 79%. Does that give an investor something of a relative-value play here in Karnalyte?
RK: Yes; but, you also have to remember that Karnalyte surged from $8–$13 very quickly after its IPO. So, it put on a lot of its capital appreciation early in the process. Right now, the resource is based on just 7% of its total land holdings. The CEO thinks that the potash deposit is extremely contiguous, very deep and very large. So, if you extrapolate to 100% of Karnalyte's property and add its newly added exploration rights, you'll start to see the stock catch up.
TER: Ok, you have a $20 target price on Karnalyte. That's an implied 60% upside from where KRN is now.
TER: And, the next catalyst could move it to there?
RK: Well, I don't know if it'll move it to there. It may take a couple more catalysts to get it there. But that's my 12-month target, and I have no doubt that KRN will blow through that number.
TER: What is your target on Passport Potash?
RK: I don't have a target yet. The company hasn't made any resource information public, at least not to the extent that we can infer a net asset value (NAV); but that information will be out shortly. Passport is working on its NI 43-101 now, which will be ready by June. The company's drilling as we speak and will release its first drill results in the next couple of weeks. Then, after two or three holes, we'll be able to come out with a valuation.
TER: You mentioned Aguia. Is it formally under your coverage?
RK: Not yet. Like Passport, it's an item of interest. We will be getting drill results from the company over the next couple of months.
TER: Richard, thank you and best wishes.
RK: Best wishes. Thank you very much.
Richard Kelertas has 25 years experience as a research analyst covering the forest products sector. He has been one of the top-ranked analysts in the sector over the years consistently, and was most recently ranked No. 1 by Brendan Woods. Richard has worked for a number of well-known brokerage firms, including Scotia McLeod, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, UBS Warburg, and Desjardins Securities. He has a bachelor's degree in forestry and a master's degree in forestry and economics from the University of Toronto. Richard is also a Registered Professional Forester.
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Energy Report: Passport Potash and Allana Potash.
3) Richard Kelertas: I personally and/or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Allana. I personally and/or my family are paid by the following companies: Allana.
In this file photo, Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush speaks during the Wall Street Journal CEO Council in Washington, DC.
WASHINGTON - Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, brother of the 43rd president of the United States and son of the 41st, appears to be preparing a bid to become the 45th.
George H.W. Bush's 61-year-old second son promised Sunday that he would make up his mind on whether to run "in short order."
But would his presidential heritage be a bonus or a burden?
As speculation grips Washington at what is the de facto start of the November 2016 presidential election, many commentators have spoken of Bush as a heavyweight Republican contender.
But, aside from possible Bush fatigue, he shares with defeated 2012 Republican flag-bearer Mitt Romney a career in off-shore private equity which may not sit well with voters.
And, when it comes to wooing the conservative Republican base in his own party's primaries, he could suffer from his seven-year absence from the political scene and largely centrist positions.
In particular, his moderate position in the explosive US immigration debate, may hurt his chances of selection.
"I have no clue if I'd be a good candidate. I hope I would be," Bush told ABC television affiliate WPLG-TV.
"I think I could serve well as president, to be honest with you. But I don't know that either. I think you learn these things as you go along."
But he also took a swipe at President Barack Obama, a Democrat, saying he was stuck in his "own little bubble."
And, in what may be the strongest indication yet he may throw his hat in the race, Bush said he will make public the 250,000 emails he sent during his time as governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007.
Bush said he was releasing the records in the interest of "transparency" and in order to "let people make up their mind."
But has George W. Bush's wealthy younger brother, who launched offshore private equity funds after his two terms as governor, got a Romney problem?
The last multimillionaire Republican nominee's business interests contributed to the ultimate failure of his bid by reinforcing his image as an aloof plutocrat isolated from ordinary American life.
Bush has defended his own business dealings, and denies they could hurt any candidacy.
"I am not ashamed of that at all," he said. "Practical experience is something that might be useful in Washington."
And Bush stressed that he would end his role in the businesses should he join the race, adding that his associates would do "fine" without him.
Bush's measured approach on immigration has only become more problematic since Obama opened a path to legalization for five million undocumented migrants currently living in the shadows.
Those helped by Obama's measure account for less than half of the estimated 11 million immigrants living in the United States illegally and facing deportation.
And, pressed on the issue in April, Bush seemed sympathetic toward those who cross the border illegally to join their relatives or to support their families back in their home county.
This position put him at odds with some of his Republican colleagues, and many of the most politically active party members.