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Indonesia is extremely rich in natural resources, especially oil and coal. How rich? Many people don’t realize that Indonesia was the only Asian member of OPEC until it voluntarily withdrew last year. You know why they withdrew? Because their economy was growing so fast and they were making such good use of their own o... |
Martin:You’ve recently been to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, mainland China, Japan, India … now Indonesia. Where are you going next? |
Tony: My next trip is to Xian, China. There are over 100 Universities there and they produce the most engineers of any city in China. That gives them a wealth of talent in technology and engineering, and I am going to visit two companies in particular that tap this talent. |
From there, I’m going to Hanoi and Ho Chi Min City. Vietnam is taking aggressive steps to open up its economy. It has recently been privatizing companies and property rights. It’s taking some very broad measures to boost the liquidity of its stock market. Its market is another prime candidate for #1 outperformer next y... |
Larry: And Thailand, despite its political problems, is one of the most undervalued markets in Asia, with many stocks trading at less than their book values! Plus, there’s a vast amount of new Chinese money going into Thailand, buying property, buying banks, buying every major asset they can lay their hands on. Which l... |
Forecast #10 Sovereign wealth funds of Asia will become far more aggressive buyers of contra-dollar assets in 2010, helping to drive up their values at a much faster clip than generally expected, especially in Asia. |
Just the top ten Sovereign Wealth Funds in the world have nearly $3 trillion in capital. More than 80 percent of that capital originates from the Middle East and Asia — and more than 70 percent of that capital is going into natural resources, which are contra-dollar assets. |
Larry: What most people don’t realize is that the sovereign wealth funds are also global trendsetters. When they start gobbling up natural resources, other companies will follow their lead and do the same. |
Forecast #11 Expect a MASSIVE new global boom in mergers and acquisitions, focusing on small- and mid-cap natural resource stocks. |
We just saw Goldcorp gobble up a company with gold mining operations in Mexico by the name of Canplats for $238 million. And this acquisition was driven by a wave that will lift a lot more small boats, targeting not only gold, but other natural resource like oil, silver, copper and more. The wave I’m talking about is t... |
And it’s accelerating. Bear Creek Mining bought three gold and silver exploration companies in South Peru. El Dorado Gold bought Sino Gold in China. Jin Shan, based in Canada, recently merged into a larger Chinese miner. |
Bonus Forecast 2010 will bring a NEW phase in Asia’s real estate boom — a boom which is both broader and far more sustainable than America’s real estate boom of the 2000s. |
Larry: I travel throughout Asia. I bought a property here in Bangkok just SIX months ago, and it’s already up 35 percent. So I can answer that question based on first hand information. Real estate prices will naturally be highest in major urban centers where population density is the greatest and real estate is in the ... |
Martin: Gentlemen, this is fascinating. But most investors can’t travel all over Asia like you do. And even if they could, how are they going to buy Asian real estate? |
Tony: Are we ready to start naming specific investments? |
Tony: In the past, it would have been almost impossible for the average American investor to profit from a real estate boom in Asia. Today, it’s just a matter of buying the right exchange-traded funds — simple ETFs. ETFs are traded on U.S. exchanges. You can buy ETFs with deep discount commissions, or even zero commiss... |
Martin: What about ETFs for Asian real estate? |
Tony: You can use IFAS. This ETF owns shares in some of the biggest commercial property developers throughout Asia, including China, Singapore, and Japan. |
I have personally visited real estate developments in Shanghai, Beijing and all over China, and that’s where I think you’re going to get the biggest bang for your buck. I’d love to take readers on a tour with me to see some of them — and the HUGE demand for them — first hand. But I don’t have to. |
You can buy a stake in China’s real estate with the Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (symbol TAO). This ETF owns companies like Wharf Holdings Ltd. and New World Development, which develop malls, office buildings, and other commercial projects in China. |
The main point I’d like to make is that there are ETFs for each and every one of your forecasts, and for nearly all of them, the market liquidity is excellent. |
Martin: Forecast #2 was a continuing, virtually unstoppable long-term decline in the dollar. What’s the simplest vehicle for profiting from that trend? |
Bryan Rich: Currency ETFs. ETFs that never buy a share of stock, never buy a single bond. ETFs that invest strictly in foreign currencies themselves. These ETFs allow you to profit from the appreciation in the currencies against the dollar. Plus, in several cases, you get the benefit of a higher yield. |
For example, the Australian dollar ETF now gives you a full three percentage points more than U.S. Treasury bills or U.S. money markets. The Brazilian real ETF pays you over EIGHT percentage points more! |
Martin: The next actionable forecast was gold heading for $1,500. What instruments to do you recommend? |
Larry: If you don’t own any gold, decide how much you want to allocate to gold and buy half now, half on a pullback. But don’t put most of that allocation in bullion coins or bars. You’ll have to pay a hefty premium. You’ll have the costs and hassles of storage. It’s simply not for most of your money. |
Instead, I use the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD). It’s far more flexible and practical. |
In addition, every investor should hold shares in gold miners like Newmont, symbol NEM, and Barrick, symbol ABX; plus some juniors, like Agnico Eagle, symbol AEM; IAMGOLD, symbol IAG; and another up-and-coming company, Jaguar Mining, symbol JAG. |
Martin: Forecast #5 was a higher trading range for oil, up to $110 per barrel but NOT new all-time highs. To me, that implies a strategy that also has a strong income or dividend component. |
Nilus Mattive: I like Master Limited Partnerships like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (symbol KMP) and Energy Transfer Partners (symbol ETP), which have dividend yields of 7.6 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. Or, if you want to get broad diversification in MLPs with one shot, you can use the MLP & Strategic Equity ... |
Martin: The next actionable forecast was on the strong potential outperformance of stocks in countries like China, India and Brazil. What are the best vehicles? |
Tony: There’s a solid ETF for each one. Plus, beyond ETFs, I think the best way to invest in China is to concentrate on the two C’s … Construction and Chuppies — Chinese yuppies. And my favorite stocks for these two sectors those trends are Duoyaun Global Water (DGW) and New Oriental Education (EDU). |
Martin: Last actionable forecast: Big mergers in small- and mid-cap resource companies. |
Sean: One of the hottest regions right now is Argentina and Chile, where I’ve been hopping around for the last eight days virtually nonstop on twin-engine puddle-hoppers, micro buses, pick-up trucks, hiking —in the Andes, in Patagonia. That’s where my favorite Latin American gold miner has two of its most promising exp... |
Martin: How does that compare to other mines? |
Sean:They have to do a lot more drilling to prove it up, but look, there are mines all over the world going into production with less than a single gram per ton. |
Martin: You never gave us the name of the company. |
Sean: It’s Exeter Resources, traded in Toronto and on the Amex. Plus, they have another huge project in Northern Chile, which I just visited, which could one of the largest undeveloped gold resources in all of Latin America. The kicker is that this company’s valuation is based almost exclusively on this second project.... |
Monty: Gentlemen, I’ve been listening carefully throughout this hour and I’d like to give you my evaluation of what I’ve heard, if I may. I have managed Asia-focused hedge funds for quite a few years — in Tokyo, in Singapore, in Hong Kong … and most recently in the U.S. Hedge funds are avid but also very skeptical buye... |
Thank you again for joining today. Have a good day and a great 2010! |
Your MarketOracle site, especially your own wise articles are deeply enjoyed and appreciated. |
I must immediately ask this important question after just reading Martin Weiss' Dec 7th 2010 Forecast article. |
It seems their team analysis is excellent, BUT completely ignores the idea that if the US stock market goes down, so do the other world stock markets. Everyday we can STILL see them go UP and DOWN TOGETHER. They have NOT yet deleveraged Nadeem. I am very happy to read and see all of the the Martin Weiss Team's excellen... |
Yes, we can see the dollar rallies as bull traps, but again, IF the dollar declines to hell as they say, which analysis seems to make great sense, but then my friend ALL markets are in a lot of trouble Nadeem when that happens. The dollar will decline horribly and the other markets will jump for joy and rally separatel... |
They seem to have completely ignored this or believe some magic deleveraging is imminent or it can happen slowly and smoothly? |
The USD and US stock market decline will NOT cause global hell?? |
I am greatly interested in your thoughts on what seemed a glaring issue and thank you for your attention. Perhaps you could forward this comment also to Mr. Weiss. |
I hope we have an opportunity to meet someday. Your type of analysis is truly my favorite of them all. |
I am working on the inflationary mega-trend at the moment which once completed will feed into stock, housing, currency projections for 2010. |
So its important i get key elements of the inflationary mega-trend right first. |
Really enjoyed reading the report especially with regards to Asia, yes it will outperform, but do you know who will beat India, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and everyone else??? |
It will be the "most dangerous country on earth" none other than PAKISTAN! |
Pakistan is the 7th most populated country in the world, 170mn with almost 54% of the population below the age of 19. An estimated 3.5mn people will be added to the labor force over the next 5 years and we expect this influx to help drive and sustain domestic demand. |
Pakistan has the potential to become the granary for the entire region. According to the Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO), Pakistan ranks twentieth worldwide in farm output. About 25% of Pakistan’s total land area is under cultivation and is watered by one of the largest irrigation systems in the world. Agricultur... |
The benchmark KSE-100 rallied 2,000% after Pakistan bottomed after going nuclear. The KSE-100 hit 750 in '98 and then rocketed to 15,700 in '08. You will be hard pressed to find a market that outperformed Pakistan. |
In Elliott terms the KSE-100 bottomed in wave IV of primary degree in ’09 and has now started to rally in wave V of which wave 1 has or is close to peaking. |
Wave 2 of V should correct down to around 7,000 - 8,000. Then comes the rally to new highs. The KSE-100 should do a Sri Lanka in '10. |
Pakistan is the world's largest; salt producer, the world's 2nd largest meat producer, 4th largest milk producer, 4th largest cotton producer, 4th largest mango producer, 4th largest sugarcane producer, 5th largest copper mine, 6th largest coal reserves. |
Continue to watch the news as Pakistan declines in wave 2 of V over the next few months and appears destined to descend in to the abyss and when we again make the cover of Newsweek with a shocking headline you will know that wave 3 of V is about to begin!!! |
Ever notice how they do not discuss what the risks are to their own forecasts? Many a shrewd trader and investor will be taking the other side ending up way in front. The market has a way of proving the best sounding forecasts to be completely off base, which is only found out through the benefit of hindsight. |
Don't forget, these guys are only publishers, that's how they make their money. Making things sound good is what they are best at, by making seductive forecasts appealing to the financially unwashed and financially unwashable. But heed this advice, act on their forecasts at your own financial peril. |
Great analysis by Bilal Khan. No doubt that Pakistan's economy grew an accelerated pace in the past. No doubt that bench mark index in CY09 has risen to a satisfactory level. However! recovery in benchmark index was due to free fall of KSE-100 index in CY08 and 1Q09 when panic brougth the stock prices to an EXCEPTIONAL... |
I am bit concerned about the future of economy as manufacturing sector is yet to perform, service sector is still recalling its old golden days. |
It is marvelous how only positive things about Weiss are printed but then again you would nt print the true when you have done a spread on them it would make YOU look poor. |
Africa’s two leading e-commerce startups, Jumia and Konga, topped their 2015 Black Friday merchandise sales in Nigeria—even as the country weathers currency volatility and recession. |
The shopping spree of the continent’s most populous nation has become a de facto test event for each venture’s business model. Collectively backed by over $400 million in VC funding, both Konga and Jumia are competing to bring online sales to the masses in a region still lacking many of the requisites for doing e-comme... |
Even so, the development of digital shopping is barreling forward while reshaping the consumer landscape in Africa’s largest economy. |
While Nigerian Black Friday’s deepest discounts fell on November 25, many online retailers started promos the week before and are extending sales into the December holiday period. |
Konga launched its Yakata—or “utterly falling”—sales campaign on November 18, offering large markdowns on items ranging from microwaves to gaming consoles. The site significantly exceeded its 2015 Black Friday numbers. “Last year we did over 1 billion Naira [ ≈ $ 5 million ] in sales for the period. This year for Yakat... |
To handle the increased Black Friday volume, both Konga and Jumia have been expanding their online, payments, and logistics capabilities since 2012, when both were founded in Nigeria. |
In Africa’s expanding tech ecosystem, Jumia is perhaps its most recognized startup. Founded by Germany’s Rocket Internet, the company became the continent’s first unicorn in February 2016 when it surpassed $1 billion in market value after a $326 million funding round including investors AXA, Goldman Sachs and MTN. |
In addition to big capital, Jumia also has extensive reach. The venture was previously structured as Africa Internet Group (AIG), with Jumia.com as 1 of 11 startups in 23 African countries offering online services ranging from fashion and employment to real estate. The company went through a reorg in June 2016, rebrand... |
Though frequently referred to as Africa’s Amazon.com, Jumia’s business model has developed in distinctly different ways based on the continent’s challenges. Fewer than a quarter of African roads are paved, according to the International Road Federation, and many of Jumia Group’s core markets lack delivery options that ... |
And while smartphone and broadband penetration are rapidly increasing, fewer than a third of Africans have the Internet service needed to order goods and services online. |
Like its counterpart Konga, to pull off internet sales Jumia has been forced to build much of its e-commerce infrastructure from scratch. This includes founding its own delivery service of drivers, trucks, motorcycles, and pick up stations. On digital payments, Nigeria has seen slower adoption rates than other African ... |
To overcome limited connectivity, Jumia created customer adoption centers where customer service reps help first time e-commerce shoppers place orders on Wi-Fi connected tablets and laptops. Jumia has also opened its site to allow local merchants to sell online through it infrastructure. Many have joined the startup’s ... |
For Black Friday 2016, Jumia offered (and continues to offer) discounts on 40,000 products while extending promotions over 12 days, according to CEO Poignonnec. “We have 13,000 sellers participating. We’re enlisting our delivery service, all our logistics partners, and our JForce agents to make it all happen,” he said.... |
To that view, Konga created its own delivery fleet, third party seller platform, and proprietary third party logistics service, called Mercury. |
The company also launched KongaPay in 2016, which allows any vendor to generate QR payment codes from mobile phone images to sell products online. |
In 2016 Shola Adekoya took over as CEO, with Shagaya staying on as Chairman of the Board. Though smaller than Jumia in capital ($78 million) and operating countries (Nigeria for now, with expansion plans) Konga also draws Amazon comparisons. “When people say ‘you will be the next Amazon, next eBay’ my general response ... |
He notes the startup’s work to become less direct retailer and more of a fee and commission based payments, warehousing, and logistics platform for Africa’s buyers and sellers. “Our job is to make e-commerce as easy as possible for businesses and consumers. Over 90 percent of products sold through Konga now belong to m... |
For Yakata and Black Friday 2016, Konga offered discounts of up to 70 percent across all product categories. Best sellers were smartphones, laptops, tablets, and electronics accessories, according to CEO Adekoya. He also noted that internet traffic over the period was 76 percent mobile and 24 percent desktop with mobil... |
The popularity of Black Friday in Nigeria supports the value proposition for African e-commerce. Growing workforce age, smartphone connected, and urbanizing populations are expected to boost the continent’s yearly consumer spending above $2 trillion by 2020 and online sales to $75 billion by 2025, according to McKinsey... |
Despite the country’s well-known challenges, e-commerce startups such as Konga and Jumia have adopted Nigeria first growth strategies due to the country’s dual distinctions as Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation, with over 180 million people. |
Recent tough economic times, connected to a global drop in commodities prices (Nigeria is a major oil exporter) and China’s business slump (one of Nigeria’s major trading partners) did not dissuade Black Friday sales. “It was a tough year. Nigerians were looking forward to and saving up for the gifting season. They und... |
Future events, such as IPOs, acquisitions, or partnerships could better illuminate which of Africa’s two big e-commerce startups leads in revenue, profitability, and market share. |
Until then, Alexa rankings provide some indication of traffic and popularity. Currently Jumia is ahead as the 6th most visited site in Nigeria compared to Konga’s rank of 14th. Of course, that could certainly change by Nigeria’s 2017 Black Friday online extravaganza. |
B.C. education - Heading for success or failure? |
Two education experts will be guest speakers at a forum Tuesday, April 17, to discuss the future of B.C. public schools. |
Paul Shaker, former education dean and professor emeritus at Simon Fraser University, and Charles Ungerleider, former deputy education minister and University of B.C. education professor, will discuss the question Is Our Education System Headed for Success or Failure? |
Hosted by the John Oliver secondary school PAC, the forum will also explore why teachers are upset with Bill 22, what is new in the B.C. Education Plan and how the bill and the plan affect education in public schools. |
Register here for this free event, which starts at 7:30 p.m. at John Oliver secondary. |
Sensational, young jazz players are emerging with each season. |
By Brian Hatton/Courtesy of Julius Rodriguez. |
Clockwise from top left: James Williams on trumpet and vocals, Sam Friend on banjo and vocals, Josh "Jams" Marotta on percussion, Wes "Quad" Anderson IV on the sousaphone, Haruka Kikuchi on trombone, and Connor Stewart on clarinet and saxophone. |
Courtesy of The New Orleans Swamp Donkeys/Maya Krinsky. |
Courtesy of Jason Elon Goodman. |
By Peter Van Breukelen/Getty Images. |
Courtesy of Cheung Ching Ming. |
By Zenith Richards/Courtesy of Chris Pattishall. |
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