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Can Vladimir Putin, who will have ruled 24 years when his last constitutional term ends in 2024, avoid a similar fate?
This question has preoccupied Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist who has spent the last few decades focused on — and sometimes participating in — the Russian political elite. An early critic of the Putin regime, she later became an active member of the Kremlin-loyal United Russia party. She’s now back in academia as head of the Elite Studies Center at the State University of Management, seeking to reconcile her insider’s experience with the pursuit of objective analysis.
Mark Whitehouse: If Putin doesn’t change the constitution, then in 2024 Russia will need a new leader. Yet the country hasn’t had a truly contested election since 1996, and it’s not clear that it even has a legitimate mechanism for the transfer of power. So who will decide what comes after Putin, and how?
Olga Kryshtanovskaya: It’s pretty widely understood that Russia is run by clans. Their leaders include Igor Sechin [chairman and chief executive officer of state-controlled oil company Rosneft], Sergei Chemezov [general director of Rostec, a state corporation that deals in military and other technologies], Sergei Ivanov [former defense minister], Nikolai Patrushev [former director of the Federal Security Service, the successor agency to the KGB]. There’s no institution that gets together and votes, but somehow they interact and Putin makes the final decisions, keeping in mind the interests of the clans.
Within this elite, Putin is considered to be an incredibly smart person and an excellent judge of people. So he’ll play the central role in the transfer of power. Each clan will offer a list of a few candidates to be Putin’s successor, and Putin will make the final choice. But he can’t just leave it at that. The successor will be part of a system, which is more important than the person. So I also expect some changes in the system — that is, in the constitution.
Right now, Putin is at the top of the power structure. He can’t actually take part in the next election. But where will he go? He needs a position. So I think one will be created — a new entity, or a modified entity, that will become very important when Putin occupies it. In this way, he can make way for a new president, and remain legitimate and respectable, while maintaining a certain amount of power.
I think the new entity can be the State Council [an advisory council that Putin set up in 2000, based on similar councils used in Soviet and prerevolutionary times]. Its functions include acting as arbiter among the institutions of power. That’s perfect. Putin can be the arbiter. He can monitor, influence and even control the new president.
There’s already some evidence of this happening. The president’s administration has created a new department for the State Council. It’s very strange — there aren’t any such departments for other government organs, such as the State Duma. But there it is.
MW: Is there any analogue of the State Council in other countries?
OK: It’s somewhat similar to China’s Central Military Commission under Deng Xiaoping. People from Russia’s security services [Putin was a KGB officer] are big fans of China. A lot of them think that if Yuri Andropov [general secretary of the Communist Party from 1982 to 1984] had stayed in power, Russia would have followed the Chinese path. All the levers of power would have remained in the party’s hands, and private business would have been allowed to develop only in certain parts of the economy. So it’s the Deng Xiaoping model.
MW: You recently gave a presentation at Moscow State University in which you noted that the clans themselves are undergoing a sort of generational shift. Can you elaborate?
OK: In the ruling elite, you have people born in the ’40s, ’50s, ’60s, ’70s and ’80s. When Putin came to power, most of his team was from the ’50s. Now it’s mostly people from the ’60s. But looking ahead to the 2024 succession, Putin has no choice but to bet on people from the ’70s. He needs someone who will bring new energy.
Putin recognized long ago that his old guard would have to exit gradually. They occupied all the key positions in government: If they all left at once, it would be a disaster. He convinced them to occupy positions close to power and gradually make way for the next generation. I think he actually gave them an assignment to attract new cadres. It’s not a random process. To maintain the system, the people have to change.
So now all these new people are appearing in government posts — governors, ministers and so on — and they’re all controlled by the older patriarchs. They include Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Tula Region; Andrei Vorobyov, the governor of the Moscow Region; Gleb Nikitin, acting governor of Nizhny Novgorod region.
Gradually they’ll come into their own — they’re not amoebas, they’re politicians. For the time being, though, they have to be ‘technocrats.’ If they manage to achieve something in their region or ministry, then they might join the ranks of potential candidates. They have to fix roads, build buildings and stay quiet. If they behave, then maybe they have a future.
But they’re in positions of power, they have resources. They’re building teams, and gradually their political interests will diverge from those of their patriarchs. They’ll want to move up the ladder of power. Sechin can’t be president, but his protégé can. As 2024 approaches, these different interests will lead to conflicts within the old ruling elite. If that coincides with rising dissatisfaction among the people — say, because they’re unhappy about pension reform or about the worsening economy — then we have a dangerous situation. The process could get out of control.
MW: How do you imagine that playing out?
OK: I looked at it using game theory, and concluded that the elite is likely to betray Putin. As soon as Putin indicates which group's candidate he prefers, the optimal strategy for the other groups is to undermine that candidate — because if he wins, they stand to lose everything.
The clans can’t all be comfortable with any single candidate. There’s no politburo, no place for them to sit down and make a collective decision. It’s like the petals of a daisy. They all have a connection to Putin, but they have no connection to one another.
MW: This looks like a game with a bad equilibrium. The optimal strategies for the individual players are not aligned with the common good.
OK: Yes, and I wonder whether Putin understands this. I think he does. I think it’s his main concern. So I think he will try to create a system that won’t allow his successor to act too freely, but also won’t allow the people to revolt while the successor is still weak. Putin needs to cede power gradually.
MW: Will elections play any role in this process?
OK: In our system, there are always elections, but the real choice is made by a small group of people, not 140 million.
MW: Won’t the lack of choice make people angry enough to go out in the streets and protest, like they did in 2011 and 2012?
OK: It might, so Putin is taking preventative measures. He was trained in the state security services, which have very specific methods for dealing with opposition.
There’s a pyramid of protest. At the bottom, you have millions of pensioners and so on, and at the top you have leaders such as Alexei Navalny. Below the leaders, you have the people who organize and finance the opposition, and you have a limited number of fighters who are willing to tangle with the police. Between them and the pensioners, there’s a big gap — which, if it closed, would be very dangerous.
Here’s how you handle this. Create rifts among the leaders. Charge them with corruption, discredit them, destroy them one by one. Disable the intellectual and financial center, for example by cutting off non-governmental organizations from foreign sources of financing. If a Russian oligarch is providing financing, file criminal charges related to his business dealings. Frighten or neutralize the fighters with more criminal charges.
What the KGB methods don’t do is address the source of the dissatisfaction. They don’t care why the people are protesting. They don’t work with reasons, they work with specific individuals.
MW: Is that a weakness?
OK: From a sociologist’s perspective, yes. But from the perspective of an acting politician, it’s very effective.
There are complicating factors. Western public opinion. Free media. They might explain to those pensioners that Navalny isn’t actually the corrupt one. So you have to curtail freedom of speech and control the internet, too. Navalny’s popularity came as a surprise to the president’s administration. They were slow to wake up to the power of social networks. They won’t make that mistake again.
It’s amazing how successful the approach has been. In 2011, the protest movement seemed invincible. But by the end of 2012 it was disoriented and weak. And in 2014, we had the patriotic counterrevolution, with the annexing of Crimea and all that.
MW: What kind of person can qualify to become Putin’s successor? What are the job requirements?
OK: He has to be Russian, with a Russian last name. He can’t be too bold or brash, otherwise the opposition within the elite will fear and destroy him. He has to have decent relations with all the patriarchs, with the old guard. In wielding power, he has to strike a delicate balance. If he’s too harsh, he can galvanize the opposition. But if he’s too weak, the opposition might see him as an easy target.
It would be good if he were smart, but that’s not necessary. Russian politics favors a very specific kind of intelligence, a sort of Byzantine cunning. You’re valued if you know how to manipulate, how to play a subtle game. It’s also good to be wealthy, so you have the resources to defend yourself.
MW: How can Putin be sure that his successor won’t turn against him?
OK: This won’t be merely a gentlemen’s agreement. It’s a mistake to think that when Medvedev took over the presidency in 2008, Putin simply trusted him to return it in 2012. For Medvedev, violating the contract wasn’t an option. He would have suffered, his family would have suffered.
Putin will create conditions that make betrayal impossible. For example, the constitutional reform could give control of the military to the head of the State Council — to Putin, that is. In this way, he would officially weaken the post of president, leaving the most powerful position for himself.
The old elite might support Putin in this, because they’re interested in preserving the status quo as much as possible. So for some time there could be two centers of power. Only later would Putin step down, making way for a new era.
But then there’s another danger. If Putin doesn’t allow a successor to truly gain power, the system will still depend too much on him. This is unstable, as we saw with Brezhnev and Stalin. Long periods of rule tend to end in times of trouble.
Mark Whitehouse writes editorials on global economics and finance for Bloomberg Opinion. He was founding managing editor of Vedomosti, a Russian-language business daily. The views and opinions expressed in opinion pieces do not necessarily reflect the position of The Moscow Times.
We're going to have to add new nouns to some of our favorite sayings if technology keeps up at the pace it does. After all, "It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a hybrid air vehicle" just doesn't have quite the right ring to it. But idiomatic or not, the world's largest aircraft, the Airlander 10, is a pretty sweet machine. 302 feet long (60 feet longer than a jumbo jet), this monster of a flying contraption is a hybrid in the truest sense -- combining aspects of a fixed wing aircraft, a helicopter, and super-light technology, this HAV may look like a blimp, but it does so much more.
If size alone doesn't make the Airlander 10 a scientific and technological marvel, the fact that it's capable of hauling tons (yes, plural) of cargo and can stay in the air for up to three weeks at a time should certainly catch your attention. But really, that's not the most impressive aspect of the HAV -- the gentle giant is actually capable of staying afloat for all that time completely without a human crew. All it needs is some helium, and we become obsolete.
Strong enough to withstand even gunfire but completely silent, the Airlander 10 does not contribute in the slightest to pollution, and just may be the future of air travel (and travel as a whole). "You could put a hundred bullet holes in this, and you'd still fly for four or five hours before it became necessary to come back down," Mike Durham, HAV's chief engineer, said in an interview with The Verge. "They're very damage tolerant. I could lose an engine -- I could lose three." And even if the Airlander did need to come back to Earth's surface, it would do so gracefully, simply floating to safety with one of its four diesel-powered, V8 engines.
But despite all these incredible specs, the Airlander 10 has yet to snag any committed buyers. Part of this may be due to its $35 million price tag, and also to the fact that it hasn't actually flown yet (test flights are slated to begin in the summer).
"There's a number of militaries around the world [that are interested], but we can't say who," Chris Daniels, HAV's head of partnerships and communication told The Verge. "Each trial, we think, will lead to orders, but because this is brand new, it's very unlikely anyone is going to order it without testing it out. This will be a trials-and-demos aircraft the whole of its life, and as soon as we get orders, we move into the production phase."
So if you ever want to see the Airlander 10 in action, you and a few friends may want to find a way to come up with $35 million. Otherwise, this majestic creature will exist only in theory.
Scarborough Ladies looked to continue their successful start to the season when they came up against Leeds Uni 7ths and strong attacking display saw them take a 16-0 home win that helped to elevate them to second place in Division Five North.
Scarborough dominated from the first whistle and took an early lead through Bridgitte Picken.
Two more goals in quick succession gave the home side a comfortable 3-0 lead.
Scarborough continued to push and a steady stream of goals followed from short corners and open play.
Forward Kirsty Tait ended what had been a masterclass in finishing, with a special strike which saw the ball nestling into the top left corner of the goal and Scarborough took a 10-0 lead into the break.
The second half was much of the same, with Scarborough adding to their goal tally.
By the final whistle, the goals had come from all over the pitch with Tait hitting five, Kelly Brown four, Bridgette Picken three, Kate Dibb two and one each for Angela Tiernan and Helen Evans.
Scarborough 2nds took part in a thrilling 1-1 draw against Bradford 5ths.
The Scarborough lads were looking to maintain there 100% record and they started the brighter of the two teams.
Despite this, a rare attack from the away side resulted in them taking a 1-0 lead, the scores stayed that way until the interval.
After a shaky end to the first half Scarborough regrouped in a bid to find the vital equaliser.
The home side thought they had levelled early on through midfielder Will Palmer, but unfortunately his chip was outside of the D.
Scarborough forward Tom Leech had squandered numerous opportunities before finally levelling with 15 minutes to go.
The goal brought Scarborough to life and Bradford where unable to get out of their box, but he home side were unable to find the winner.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Connecticut Gov. Dannel Malloy are joining forces in a regional effort to land nearly $83 billion in federal aid to recover from Superstorm Sandy.
Cuomo said at a New York City briefing Thursday that he is working with committee chairs in Congress to ensure that aid for the three states will be "flexible" so that they can better use the funds where they are most needed.
Cuomo, a Democrat, is asking for $42 billion for repairs and preventive measures. Christie, a Republican, is seeking $37 billion for recovery and rebuilding. Malloy, a Democrat, says Connecticut's bill is $3.5 billion.
The massive requests come at a time when Congress and President Barack Obama are trying to drastically reduce the nation's deficit, weighing spending cuts along with tax cuts that are soon to expire next year.
Cuomo said he's working closely with Rep. Peter King, a New York Republican, because getting aid approved by the GOP-led House may be "trickier" than in the Democrat-led Senate.
King told The Associated Press that the cost won't have to be offset by spending cuts as part of the tense budget negotiations. He said Congress is awaiting a proposal from Obama on disaster aid.
"I'm reasonably optimistic," said King, who is pushing for New York's proposal in Congress.
Malloy said the aid is also needed in Connecticut to protect against future storms.
"While our state was not impacted as severely as New York or New Jersey during Storm Sandy, we have seen substantial damage from three storms now that occurred in a little more than a year's time," he said.
The good news for the Browns and Josh Gordon is that hearing officer Harold Henderson ultimately didn’t apply the substance-abuse policy as written regarding the duration of Gordon’s suspension. The bad news is that Gordon will still miss the full season.
But Gordon may be reinstated before August 27, 2015, which would mean that the supposedly mandatory one-year suspension contained in the policy won’t be enforced in this case.
While it does nothing to help Gordon or the Browns in 2014, it means that he could be back with the team in time to better prepare for 2015. If the policy had been applied as written, Gordon would not have been back until August 27, 2015.
Of course, Gordon must stay clean over the next several months and beyond, passing up to 10 drug tests per month. If he fails before he’s reinstated, he may not be reinstated. If he fails after, he’ll face another lengthy suspension.
I know it has been said already, probably more than once, but it sickens me to know that Ray Rice can HIT A WOMAN in public and get two games. This dude smokes some pot like probably 1/4 of the NFL players do, and gets suspended for a year. It is just like Von Miller. He got the hammer thrown at him last year for pot.
Lets not forget that Jim Irsay is still enjoying every pill in his pocket and cruising around high oxy with $30K in his pocket and nothing is done about it. Yeah, makes SO MUCH SENSE!!!!!
… but… first… josh gordon will apply for a medical marijuana card.
Add in one false positive due to a ridiculously low testing threshold and he’s done.
So the league can kick him out & still drug test him?????
The headline is factually wrong. The NFL’s statement – 2 articles down – says the NFL has not determined when Gordon will be eligible to apply for reinstatement. But knowing Roger, I’m sure he’ll cut Josh a break once all the media attention has gone away.
What about if he is found guilty in his DWI case? Tack on another year? Indefinite suspension with triple double probation?
Hey, if he doesn’t like the rules, he CAN LEAVE. How many chances do you get at your job if you flunk a drug test. Mine is one. Go work at Wal-Mart if you don’t like the NFL rules.
He’s not kicked out, he’s suspended. If he retired, they would probably take him out of the program. If he then unretired, they would put him right back in.
They’ve been overly harsh with this kid. He was entered into the substance abuse program for action he took in college. His only violation of the NFL substance abuse program is for codene cough syrup (apparently) prescribed by his doctor (thus the reason they reduced his suspension Last year). Now he barely tests over and the “duplicate” sample was clean – boom – he’s suspended for a whole year? Wow….just wow.
Boo hoo… How about this Josh? Stop smoking pot.
Rodger Goodell should suspend himself for life. The guy is ruining the game.
Lets see MUST stay clean and not fail test. How long before he wants to play the big macho guy and back out doing the drugs.
I’m sorry but this is a ridiculous suspension. Is smoking weed banned by the NFL – yes. He did break their rule, but at some point common sense has to factor into a decision like this. As it’s been said many times, now players know they can beat a woman and miss two games, while smoking weed can keep you out for a year.
For everyone saying negative things about Gordon and/or marijuana.
I wish every athlete that used marijuana would quit playing in the league they’re in. That would leave you couch potato alcoholics with nothing but golf.
😦 sad face going out to the poor Liberals.
I think the NFL made a huge error in this case. But where is outrage at the NFLPA?
The NFLPA helped cause this situation by failing to negotiate better terms on pot.
If the NFLPA wanted to help the players guys like Josh Gordon would be in sanctioned treatment programs during their suspensions. They would be permitted to be monitored by their teams.
Both the NFL and the NFLPA are wrong in the Gordon case.
what will happen to his status once he is (and he will be here in NC) convicted of DWI. He blew over .08 which is the threshold.
the question is, does this add to his suspension?
He’ll never play again. He’s high right now. Talented, stupid, and hangs around with bad dudes. CYA loser.
It’s not just pot folks, the man is an addict. Hopefully this is a wake up call because he is a still a very young man who can still have a great career and good life moving forward.
I feel bad for everyone involved. Browns ownership and management set back 2 -3 years. Browns fans have to wait til next year – again and again and… NFL reputation takes a hit especially with Rice and Irsay contrasts. And Gorden is all but done – talent wasted and millions flushed along with the other brown stuff.