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ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.barrons.com/articles/joy-global-deja-vu-all-over-again-1457966748\nJoy Global: Déjà Vu All Over Again\nMarch 14, 2016 10:45 am ET\nAxiom Capital's Gordon Johnson argues that Joy Global (JOY) will have a tough time meeting its \"back-end loaded\" 2016 guidance--just like it did in 2015. He explains why:\nWe Believe JOY’s Back-End Loaded F16 Guide May Be Repeating the Same Mistake Made in C15. Last year on 3/5/15 when JOY reported F1Q15 figures, & revised down its F15 rev/EPS guidance, suggesting a heavy weighting toward 2H15, the company said: “as is typical, we expect our earnings and cash generation will be greater in 2H15”. At the time, ’15 aggregated global mining CAPEX (“AGMC”) was expected to fall -23% y/y, & the coal markets were expected to remain in structural oversupply through the balance of ‘15. So what happened? JOY’s bookings fell from $782mn in F4Q14 to $617mn in F4Q15 (lows not seen since F1Q09), forcing the company to eventually cut the degree to which F15 earnings would be back-end loaded, despite reiterated guidance several times during the year, compromising investor confidence & sending the stock tumbling -73% thru C15. Turning to JOY’s recently (3/3/16) lowered F1Q16 guidance, things look oddly similar, yet a bit worse. What do we mean? Well, first we note that ’98-’15 JOY’s revs/gross margins displayed a 97.2%/97.9% R² to AGMC. Further, from F2Q09-F1Q16 JOY’s revs displayed an 85% R² to its trailing 6-month (“TSM”) bookings. Along these lines, considering: (1) the 85% R² between JOY’s revs and TSM bookings, assuming it holds, suggests F16 sales will come in at ~$2.29bn vs. JOY’s guide of $2.5bn (using this same approach when JOY gave F15 rev guidance of $3.7bn 3/5/15, one would have modeled F15 revs at $3.0bn vs. $3.2bn reported) – Ex. 7, (2) C16 AGMC is expected to fall -35% y/y, & (3) coal markets are expected to remain structurally oversupplied thru C16, we believe, similar to C15, C16 will be defined by multiple earnings revisions lower.\nShares of Joy Global have gained3% to $16.63 at 10:42 a.m. today.\nAxiom Capital's Gordon Johnson argues that Joy Global (JOY) will have a tough time meeting its "back-end loaded" 2016 guidance--just like it did in 2015."