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Expert Women Project
Figures and Trend
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Post Author: Lis Howell
HOW TO BECOME A CONTRIBUTOR: Blog page editor Steph Bosset can post your blog as a Guest Blog, or you can become a contributor. Send your blogs to l.howell@city.ac.uk as Guest Blogs. Or email Lis for your unique password and contribute whenever you want.
Guest Post – Channel 5 Editor Cait FitzSimons tells Lis Howell why C5 News has a consistently higher ratio of female to male experts than other programmes……. and staved off the male politicians during the Covid-19 crisis…..
Cait says "I've been working in news for more than 20 years. In that time, TV journalism has become more fast-paced and more demanding. Multi-skilling is now the norm. Teams are smaller and often produce content for multiple platforms. There are more women in positions of power and diversity is at…
Continue Reading Guest Post – Channel 5 Editor Cait FitzSimons tells Lis Howell why C5 News has a consistently higher ratio of female to male experts than other programmes……. and staved off the male politicians during the Covid-19 crisis…..
Expert woman…me?
Post Author: Kalpana Sabapathy
As a result of being on the BBC EW list as a health expert, I was approached to comment on emerging news events about Covid-19. Never has the world been so aware or interested in matters normally confined to those immersed in specialised fields (parodied perfectly by Catherine Tate in…
Continue Reading Expert woman…me?
A View from Scotland
Post Author: Kirsty McIntosh
“I usually contribute on a fairly frequent basis to the morning radio shows up here in Scotland, where I get called on to give a business perspective on various issues (independence, Brexit, even travel). I’ve also done some TV work for BBC Scotland on tech issues such as the potential…
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Fran Acheson on the BBC’s Expert Women initiative
Post Author: Fran Acheson
One of the best experiences of my working life has been my involvement with the BBC's Expert Women programme. The programme was launched in 2013 by the BBC Academy (the BBC's training arm), and I came on board in 2017 first as joint, then sole lead, running Expert Women events…
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Modern Life Is Rubbish
Post Author: Harpreet Kaur
The world has suddenly gone quieter. Aside from key workers we are all at home. We keep on hearing the challenges and frustrations. I don’t intend to ignore the reality of this painful period with people losing jobs, loved ones, livelihoods going down the drain. But there are many positives…
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COVID-19 and the right to remain liberal
Post Author: Joelle Fiss
I'm restless. Although I’m not complaining. I am one of the fortunate ones in good health, confined and duly awaiting my physical and mental liberation. At home, the media frenzy around COVID-19 is inescapable. It’s all very confusing. I am told that COVID 19 marks the end of liberal ideology.…
Continue Reading COVID-19 and the right to remain liberal
Guest Post: Operation Talla – Leadership in a Pandemic
Post Author: Steph Bosset
Sarah Johnson is the Superintendent for Operation Talla, Northamptonshire Police "I am the force lead for Northamptonshire Police’s for Operation Talla, this is the Police response to the Coronovirus pandemic. My ‘normal’ day job is as the Head of Operations, armed policing, dogs, public order, and other specialist disciplines and…
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Guest Post: Living La Vida Lockdown, But Not Loving It
Professor Amelia Hadfield is the Head of Department of Politics and Director of the Centre for Britain and Europe (CBE) at the University of Surrey "I’ll admit I’m not crazy about working from home. But I also enjoy a challenge, so I attempted to get my head around the idea…
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Guest Post: The Balancing Act
Chloe Duckworth is a Degree Programme Director for Archaeology at Newcastle University "People often used to say to me before the birth of my son that there’s no ‘perfect’ time to have a baby. Equally, I’m certain there’s no ‘good’ time to be under lockdown, although – to misquote Tolstoy…
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Guest Post: What I Learned from the Expert Women Project
Jillian Evans is Head of Health Intelligence for NHS Grampian "How do you know when you’ve become an ‘expert’? Are you defined as such based on qualifications or experience? Is it because you are a good speaker and confident? Can you get your message over well? Are you interesting? All of these things is what I’ve become through the expert women project. …
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Smashing System Bias Since 1972…
Blu-Ray Review: The Apartment
Posted on December 20, 2017 by geelw
I’d forgotten Billy Wilder’s forever brilliant The Apartment was a perfect seasonal movie for those of us isolated types looking for a lift as well as anyone else who has cold and loathsomely lonely winters. Granted, the first time I saw it (I think I was maybe 10 or 11), I was too young to understand much of what was going on. During these darker days as I age none too gracefully, Jack Lemmon is sort of my spirit animal, so this five Academy Award-winning film has become a personal favorite.
Poor C.C. Baxter (or “Bud” to some) toils away at his data collection job at a huge New York City insurance firm, often keeping late hours with no overtime thanks to his nearby apartment being used as a hot spot for a trio of philandering company executives, Mr. Dobsich (Ray Walston), Mr. Eichelberger (David White), and Mr. Vanderhoff (Willard Waterman). Baxter is hoping to climb the corporate ladder a bit faster by doing this (yes, he even has a calendar to keep track of who gets his place and when). But he’s also so accommodating that he even cleans up afterwards and takes suggestions from his cheating superiors such as restocking his liquor supply and buying cheese crackers without asking for a dime in return. Things get even more complicated after the big boss Mr. Sheldrake (Fred MacMurray) gets wind of Baxter’s bachelor pad and dangles a big promotion over his head if he can get access to the place for his own affair. Baxter agrees to the trade, but finds out that Sheldrake is romancing Fran Kubelik (Shirley MacLaine), the cute elevator girl he’s been chatting up.
Fran has no clue Baxter is smitten, but she’s also not keen on Sheldrake thanks to him insisting a few times he’s willing to leave his wife and kids for her. They had a fling a few months earlier and Fran considers it over and done for the most part. But she’s also too fragile not to fall a bit for Sheldrake’s smarmy charms which results in the most roundabout manner of she and Baxter inevitably colliding into what looks like a real relationship with two flawed people making a seemingly perfect couple. Well, that’s the short version. The longer one is Wilder and co-writer I.A.L. Diamond along with the cast and crew ended up creating an enduring classic that, especially seen today is still pretty potent. Performances are all around stellar, but Lemmon and MacLaine are the focal points with each displaying identifiable quirks and insecurities that home.
Just watching them work throughout this film is amazing. Lemmon’s head bobbing to his calculating device’s beat, his straining of pasta through a tennis racket and all his interactions with his superiors reveal an actor so in charge of his craft that he comes off as just a normal guy with a rather abnormal problem. MacLaine plays Fran as a good egg with an edge. She’s not the good girl Baxter thinks she is, but she’s also vulnerable and plays her scenes with layers of depth far beyond the other women in the film. On one of the special features, it’s noted that Wilder and Diamond wanted every actor to stick to the script and there was zero wiggle room for improvisation. Yet, Lemmon manage to fit in a sight gag with a bottle of eye drops that was left in because it made everyone on set laugh, the director included.
It’s hard to describe what sort of film this is in this day and age of pigeonholed genres and too many films getting lousy remakes, but I guess comedy/drama works well enough if you need to categorize. There are plenty of laughs, but also an undertone of sadness as we watch Baxter get what he wants before deciding it’s not the job that makes the man at all. Fran is also longing for something other than grabby, desperate, and wealthy losers. But it takes an even more desperate act for her to see she’s neither worthless nor immune to actual romance. Interestingly, shortly after a key scene, Baxter reveals a secret about his own past that’s shocking and amusing while also setting up the part of the ending where Fran delivers a simple response to his fully opening up to her about his feelings.
As I haven’t seen the MGM Blu-Ray version from 2012 (unless TCM has been showing it and I wasn’t paying attention), the new Arrow Academy restoration is probably going to be the go-to version for a while. Using a combination of digital and standard restoration techniques, the film looks phenomenal all cleaned up for higher resolution 4K sets. Wilder’s command of the camera with each scene framed and shot in his distinctive style may have made his actors uncomfortable, but the results speak for themselves. One throwaway shot made me laugh out loud, but it’s because I’d managed to miss it the every time I saw this film. After Sheldrake fires his secretary and his wife finds out she’s been cheating on her, we get a blink and you’ll miss it shot of the replacement hired: a older woman who looks like someone’s grandma working the desk.
I guess that wasn’t a “throwaway” shot after all.
Anyway, yeah – this one’s a buy and I’d bet a penny it might become a holiday favorite of yours, too. While I only got a screener disc with the film and special features, those of you who want a fantastic library edition can grab the Limited Edition that adds in a nice hardbound book and that collectible packaging Arrow is known for.
LIMITED EDITION CONTENTS
• Limited Deluxe Edition Blu-ray [3000 copies]
• Brand new 4K restoration of the film from the original camera negative
• Original uncompressed PCM mono audio
• Optional 5.1 remix in lossless DTS-HD Master Audio
• Optional English SDH subtitles for the deaf and hard of hearing
• Audio commentary with film producer and historian Bruce Block
• New appreciation of the film and select scene commentary by film historian Philip Kemp
• The Flawed Couple, a new video essay by filmmaker David Cairns on the collaborations between Billy Wilder and Jack Lemmon
• Billy Wilder ABC, an overview by David Cairns on the life and career of the filmmaker, covering his films, collaborators and more
• New interview with actress Hope Holiday
• Inside the Apartment, a half-hour “making-of” featurette from 2007 including interviews with Shirley MacLaine, executive producer Walter Mirisch, and others
• Magic Time: The Art of Jack Lemmon, an archive profile of the actor from 2007
• Original screenplay by Billy Wilder and I.A.L. Diamond (BD-ROM content)
• Theatrical trailer
• Special collector’s packaging featuring newly commissioned artwork by Ignatius Fitzpatrick
• Collector’s 150-page hardcover book featuring new writing by Neil Sinyard, Kat Ellinger, Travis Crawford and Heather Hyche, generously illustrated with rare stills and behind-the-scenes imagery
Score: A (95%)
-GW
This entry was posted in 2017, Commentary, DAF, Features, Humor, Movie Posters, Updates and tagged 1960, Arrow Academy, Blu-Ray, BUY THIS FILM!, Classic Film, Holiday Gift Guide 2017, Movie Clips, Movie Reviews, Movie Trailers, Movies, MVD Entertainment Group, Reviews, The Apartment by geelw. Bookmark the permalink.
3 thoughts on “Blu-Ray Review: The Apartment”
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Todd B on January 4, 2018 at 12:37 am said:
Dang, I didn’t even know this Blu-ray version existed…I recently picked up the MGM version, but haven’t had a chance to check it out. At least it has a few of the bonus features that are on the Arrow disc. And yes, I completely agree: forever brilliant!
geelw on January 4, 2018 at 11:56 am said:
This is one of those films you can’t dislike because it nails everything just right. I’m surprised Arrow got this out in a new restoration, but it’s a good kind of surprise.
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Steven Universe: So Many Birthdays Rewatch
January 6, 2015 7:35 AM - Season 1, Episode 13 - Subscribe
Steven learns that the Gems are ageless, and don't celebrate birthdays. Steven's efforts to throw them parties provoke a strange reaction from his own gem.
Written and storyboarded by Raven M. Molisee and Paul Villeco.
posted by JHarris (13 comments total)
"It's the tuna burrito from Aqua Mexican!" "That place closed like five years ago!" It's stinking up the whole temple. Apparently, despite the weird magical nature of the place, rotting food is a great equalizer. (Established: Amethyst has been eating human food for over five years.) A little later: "The pinata is an artifact from ancient Aqua Mexico." It's a throwaway joke, but I liked it.
The painting of the Gems, of them on the sea in a dinghy with a few humans, from centuries ago is great, not just in theme and composition (action shot of Garnet punching a shark!) but because that one shot fills in a few gaps in Steven Universe's backstory. The Gems knew each other at least a couple hundred years ago, they were having adventures then, and they were concerned enough with humans to save one of their crew members' lives. (Although Garnet says that the painting was posed.) It's also interesting to see the Gems' clothing changed with the times. An episode centering around the events of that painting would be cool to see sometime.
Amethyst is the one with the painting. They should probably hang that in Steven's Room, really.
The first half of the episode is entirely comic fodder, with Steven introducing the Gems to the concept of celebrating birthdays. They've been around for at least centuries, but still need to be taught about human cultures.
Singing: "It might as well be your birthday! So why don't we have a party, even though your age isn't real and your body's an illusion!"
Lion is back, and he's even more lovable the before.
Here's something that I've mentioned before. Pearl mentions that she likes pie, but later (Fusion Cuisine) it's established that the idea of eating disgusts her, to the extent that it repels her out of a fusion.
The way the Gems are freaked out at Steven's ideas about birthday parties are the highlight of the episode. Pearl, hiding behind Garnet from Steven's clown act: "I think this is why aging makes humans die!"
"That was fun, but a boy on the cusp of manhood can't spend the whole day wackering." Sly writing, there.
Onion is seen breaking into an arcade machine to get tickets. Oh, that scamp. (We get to see fuller development of his weird amorality in Onion Trade.)
Steven, rapidly aging, goes into a clothes store to get better-fitting clothes (not realizing that he's getting larger in the process). That must mean he has money, somehow, to pay for them.
We stop by with Lars and Sadie, who completely fail to see that the guy in their shop is Steven despite several hints. Well to be fair he's not wearing his star shirt.
In Big Donut Steven's full name is revealed: Steven Quartz Universe. His middle name is a nice touch, referring both to his mother's name and the Gem custom of naming after gemstones. It's a compromise between two very different worlds, much like Steven himself is.
The Gems reacting at Steven's advancing age is kind of heart-rending. This seems to be the first time they've really had to confront the meaning of human mortality, and how it might apply to one of their own. Pearl is particularly inconsolable, which I think is the beginning of her development as the most emotional of the Gems. You could be forgiven for missing this, but Garnet is crying too, but it's on-screen for like less than a second. British reserve, eh wot?
Have the Gems (other than Rose) known and cared about other individual humans? Is knowledge of human mortality the reason they don't generally mix with Beach City culture? We see sometimes that Gem understanding of time is different ("No TV... for a thousand years."), but that's something that seems to fluctuate with the story and comedic possibilities.
"I thought that violence would be the answer."
Fortunately for the Gems, and the status quo, Steven's age soon reverts to normal (mostly). Which brings up an interesting question: is this going to happen every time Steven starts to think more maturely? Considering how the events of the episode have never come up again, I'd guess this is just a temporary thing caused by Steven's evolving control over his powers. When Steven gets his shapeshifting under control, I presume he'll be able to be any physical age he wants to be.
At the end, check it out: Steven Monkey Dance!
posted by JHarris at 7:49 AM on January 6, 2015 [1 favorite]
The big question this episode raises for me is: Is Steven actually immortal? Pearl seems to think so, since she refers to taking him for a quick "50 year" journey to outer space in a later episode and as JHarris pointed out above Garnet thinks "1000 years" is a reasonable time-frame for a punishment. The gems also seem to implicitly exclude Steven from the category of human whenever they talk about other people. Either possibility is pretty heavy. It's going to be a serious adjustment for Steven if he's immortal and for the Gems if he has a normal human lifespan.
posted by Grimgrin at 7:57 PM on January 6, 2015 [2 favorites]
It's a good question. At the moment, at least, it's clear that the Gems really don't know if Steven is immortal, but suspect that he is. It's one of those questions that's far enough in the future that it's unlikely to come up soon on the show.
Part of the joy of it, for me, is in thinking about the implications of these things, and then finding out the answers Rebecca Sugar and the writers decided upon. Those areas of ambiguity give the show its energy, or compelling quality. They are interesting to think about.
Because the more we find out about Gem nature, the less compatible it seems like it would be with human biology. I mean Steven's makeshift birthday song in this episode outright says to them: your age isn't real and your body's an illusion. That's borne out in the episode where Pearl gets killed for two weeks, then revives from out of her gem. If Steven got killed, could he do the same thing? Is his body an illusion too? But he has to eat, and can drown....
What's more, Word Of God is that the Gems are actually asexual, because they don't naturally reproduce -- they only appear to be female. So how can Steven be half human and half Gem?
posted by JHarris at 9:26 PM on January 6, 2015
My pet theory is that giving birth to a half human is something Rose Quartz and only Rose Quartz could do. Given that her power set seems to be centred around healing and growth, she may have figured out how to use her powers to conceive and give birth to Steven. I kind of figure Steven and the Gem are symbiotic; she took something of Greg's DNA or cells and connected it to her gem to create Steven. Which is why Rose Quartz died (okay, gave up her physical form) when Steven was born, after a certain point the gem could no longer sustain both of them. But, again, that's just my speculation.
That's plausible I think. My own speculation is --
When Pearl "died," when she returned she was different. Notice, her costume from that point on had the sash and not the gauzy tutu. Word Of God says that Gems have a primary physical form that they stick with, but when they retreat into their gems they have an opportunity to work on it, and so may be different when they come back.
My speculation is, in a way, Steven is Rose Quartz, that is to say, the projecting power that gives a Gem substance is being used to support him instead of Rose, who is still inside the Gem, resting. Two incarnations in one Gem, with Steven's incarnation mixed somehow with Greg. They both can't exist, but if Steven ever died she could appear again. But if that happened, it seems likely it wouldn't be for long -- Rose may never get to meet her son, but she still loves him, and doesn't want to deprive him of life.
An alternate possibility is a more literal sense of what Rose said in her videotaped speech at the end of Lion 3; Steven literally is made up half of Rose. At first I had the idea that whenever you see the stars in Steven's eyes when he gets really excited about something (the five-pointed stars, not four-pointed ones), that was Rose's personality peeking through, but one other character has done the star-eye thing -- Greg. It's when he crowns Steven with the watermelon rind in Watermelon Stevens.
New episode is Thursday, BTW!
I think Connie has done the four-pointed stars in her eyes also. I remember at a panel, someone asked if they planned on aging Steven the same way that Finn was aging in Adventure Time and the answer was a slightly elusive no, that they were going to just focus on exploring Steven at this age. This was months before this episode aired, so I wonder about the possibility that Steven won't ever age.
posted by sleeping bear at 1:12 PM on January 22, 2015
When I mention the star eyes, I mean the five-pointed ones. Several characters have done four-pointed ones (even Pearl has).
posted by JHarris at 1:47 PM on January 22, 2015
Storyboard for So Many Birthdays.
posted by JHarris at 8:09 AM on January 25, 2015
A note on the storyboard says that the painting is supposed to represent people in the "colonial era," so, the Gems were active during the American Revolution. That would be a fun story to see.
That must mean he has money, somehow, to pay for them.
I just finished watching the first season, and I've been trying to remember: do we ever see Steven pay for anything? It seems to me that when he goes to get donuts or fry bits, for example, they're just handed to him with no payment taking place.
posted by webmutant at 10:12 PM on January 27, 2016
He does, in Cat Fingers. In Watermelon Stevens he collects "100 pieces of money," which he's careful to run all over town returning once he finds out the watermelons are living moving creatures.
Okay, yeah. I'd completely forgotten he bought something in Cat Fingers, and in Watermelon Steven, that seemed to me more like "returning their money" than "buying them back," if you see what I mean. Which totally seems like something Steven would care about, whether he really grasps how money works or not.
posted by webmutant at 10:30 AM on January 29, 2016
Pearl crying during the pie gag was some great clowning by the writing team. expert stuff.
posted by eustatic at 11:37 AM on August 21, 2016
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Home› Main Category› Clubhouse
Cameraman and journalist shot and killed during live broadcast in VA
Lance Member Posts: 149 Member
coolgunguy wrote: »
Saw it too. They may have noticed him (movement, etc) out of the corner of their eyes, but to watch him point the gun and they don't even notice it there...I don't mind saying that I wish I hadn't watched it.
When I dabbled in media arts at Wash U, we were taught to constantly pay attention to the red light, and where it was focused. I got tunnel vision after one semester, and these people were pros.
Considering his background, he knew that. It makes that POV vid he posted on Liveleak all the more gruesome. Dude waited until the cam panned back to her before he started shooting.
shootbrownelk wrote: »
From what I've heard about him and the people he worked with, everyone must have known this guy was mentally ill. Yet no one did anything about it. No word from the guy's family, if he had one. There is one sick SOB that Sharpton should be condemning right now. I hate crime pure and simple. Where is the outrage?
You didn't get the memo? Hate crimes don't apply to us white folks. Slavery and all.
What can anyone do about someone being mentally ill?
Definitely a hate crime.
coolgunguy Senior Member Posts: 6,611 Senior Member
No such thing as a 'hate' crime. This is a crime, plain and simple. His motivation might be hate, but then again he may have just wanted the attention. Doesn't matter, 'hate crime' is just a convenient handle to hang on something in order to make others feel a certain way about it.
I think it Jayhawker who posted it a few years back...there are no surprises with these guys, only signs that were misunderstood or ignored entirely. In this case, I would say mostly ignored. It sounds like everybody knew he was a headcase, but so long as he wasn't their headcase, it was all good. Nobody was surprised to find out he was the shooter.
"Bipartisan" usually means that a bigger than normal deception is happening.
Big Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
Man, Obammy, Pantsuit all the REP contenders have spoken out about the call for more gun control. Poor gal who got murdered father is talking about "Loopholes" although I feel sorry for him and his loss, he is barking up the wrong tree.
Not trying to diminish the loss of his daughter and the cameraman and I couldn't imagine how heartrending it must be for him and his family. However, two of our soldiers were killed in Afghanistan the other day by an Afghan who turned on them. Very little coverage besides a fleeting mention on any news channel. I know two of their "Own" were gunned down in a dramatic way with it all captured on video, but still I think about things like this and how they play out on the news.
I have stood on the side of the road many times in Afghanistan when a "Fallen Comrade" procession is held on Bagram Airfield. A hummer with a flag draped coffin rolls by to be loaded on an aircraft to be flown to Dover. That will put more than a lump in your throat.
It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
Jayhawker Moderator Posts: 16,999 Senior Member
Now Facebook is awash with claims that this was a put up job by the TV station and that the two folks really aren't dead...an "expert" has dissected the shooting video and claims that since there are no signs of "impact" on the female, no blood and the fact that she ran off, the BG was shooting blanks...One of his buddies claims that a 9mm hollow point would have "torn her in half".... The one thing these idiots have yet to explain is; Where are these two rather well-known individuals going to disappear to for the rest of their lives? Let's see -how many people would have to keep their mouths shut to pull off this conspiracy to grab our guns?
Sharps Model 1874 - "The rifle that made the west safe for Winchester"
Jayhawker wrote: »
Yeah, a guy called in to local talk radio and said basically the same thing...claimed the same for Sandy Hook. All a government sham. I guess there is no accounting for crazy.:silly:
ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
I wonder if the funerals will be made public?
KSU Firefighter Senior Member Posts: 3,249 Senior Member
Aluminum Foil sales have gone up!
The fire service needs a "culture of extinguishment not safety" Ray McCormack FDNY
ghostsniper1 wrote: »
I certainly hope not!
ThompsonSub New Member Posts: 26 New Member
Now news stations are going to have to hire security for out in the field reporting. I think this might inspire other people to do the same thing. What a world we live in...
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Reed doubles in his third at-bat. 3-3, 2 doubles. Myers follows with a bomb.
I really like that Reed is hitting. I don’t believe in his power.
And Reed hurt himself while getting his 4th hit.
END 7| @BuddyLoco23 leaves the game tonight with an apparent left oblique injury on a swing in the box. He stayed in and got an infield single, but is lifted as Taylor Kohlwey pinch runs at 1st base.
Urias is doing his best to mimic the mlb team; he's been striking out a lot in his slump.
Bolts2156
Respek!
His way of trying to proves he's ready to join the big club?
Stergios
That’s not what I said at all. He wasn’t a decent hitter in college, which is why he went in the 2nd round instead of the top 10. He draft position was entirely because of his speed and defensive ability.
I find it hard to believe they would have drafted him that early in the draft if they thought he had no or little offensive potential
Originally posted by Stergios View Post
He was one of the five picks the Padres had out of the first 70 or so. Their strategy seems to have focused on getting the most bang for the buck (thus the Quantrill deal and Potts selection at No. 23), and on players with high end. Reed is a great athlete, and was probably considered high risk/high reward.
Law in his chat said Lawson is a legit prospect, Buddy Reed isn’t, it’s too early to be concerned with Tatis’ start, and there’s a 40% chance Lucchesi has a better career than Quantrill.
Thompson just walked five straight batters. ugh
Having a real tough time against lefty batters so far this year.
Morejon getting hit in Rancho...
Morejon topped out at 99, and was sitting 95-96 tonight according to these tweets
https://twitter.com/vocaljavelins/st...009968640?s=21
His reasoning for Reed? Because he’s 23 in high A.
Ok cool makes sense where do I buy his book
At the end of the day these are all just opinions. Their opinions are more qualified than ours because they do it for a living and have access to greater resources than us, but still just opinions.
Yeah and because he does it for a living he should probably know better than to dismiss someone just because of age.
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Shopify vs Woocommerce: Who's better?
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Thread: Shopify vs Woocommerce: Who's better?
I think both variants have pros and cons. Shopify is really good. It allows to choose from more than 100 unique store designs, letting you create the perfect shopping experience for your customers. Millions of people use it. Though it is not free, and there are individual fees on all payments you process. Also, its features are largely dependent on apps, and there is no native multilingual support. As for Woocommerce, it is a WordPress-based eCommerce solution. Of course, it is an absolute favorite amongst small to medium-sized businesses. But it has to be noted, the setup process can be quite a pain for inexperienced users. Unlike with Shopify, you won't have central support. And what about other platforms? I suggest checking a review on https://www.beautifullife.info/web-d...erce-builders/ to find out the detail. Hope it helps!
Last edited by Jim222; 09-21-2020 at 02:10 AM.
WooCommerce is the ecommerce plugin that turns any WordPress site into a powerful online store. It’s an open-source platform, and therefore free to install, making it ideal for cost-conscious users, but you’ll need to pay for things like hosting and security, however. Shopify is powerful, reliable, and easy to use, offering lovely templates and brilliant customer support. With Shopify, you’re paying a monthly premium for a solid platform – in fact, Shopify goes on to win today’s battle
WooCommerce is the eCommerce extension for Wordpress, so if you already have a Wordpress site, it’s a good option. Unfortunately, the architecture of a Wordpress site is not custom-built for selling things, like Shopify is.
If you have lots of products, need to process a lot of sales and need a fast, searchable catalogue, a platform like Shopify is best.
These are the most important factors when choosing an eCommerce platform
A) Pricing (the cost of hosting our store and the commission charged on transactions)
B) Flexibility (how the platform scales as you grow and the plugins available)
C) Ease of use (could my mum use it?)
-SHOPIFY-
A) How Much Does Shopify Cost?
See the Shopify Pricing Page for full details
Set-up Fee: $0
Monthly Cost: $29-299/m (depending on features)
Commission on Sales: 2.4% – 2.9% + 30p
B) Does Shopify scale?
There’s a big jump in price between the “Advanced” package and “Shopify Plus”. On the other hand, you can manage your account on a rolling monthly basis.
There are a large number of apps in the Shopify App Store. Currently, there are over 2000 Shopify Apps and plugins to help grow your store.
C) Is Shopify Easy to use?
This is the visual editor…
It’s quite easy to use, once you get the hang of it.
On the other hand, this is how you edit your source code (Liquid)…
Not so user-friendly!
WOOCOMMERCE-
A) How much does WooCommerce cost?
See the WooCommerce Pricing Page for full details
Monthly: Free + WordPress hosting
Extras: SEO, Marketing and Security add-ons cost (on average) over £150 a year.
B) Does WooCommerce scale?
The pricing is flexible, with extensions that allow you to build up from the basic package to the deluxe option. There are over 900 themes built specifically for WooCommerce and over 6000 WordPress plugins with WooCommerce in the title.
C) Is WooCommerce easy to use?
This is what the WooCommerce editor looks like…
It’s just the same as WordPress. So, if you’re used to blogging, it will probably suit you very well.
shopify, woocommerce
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Victims of suspected drunk driving crash remembered by fans, friends
Posted: Feb 5, 2018 / 05:43 PM EST / Updated: Feb 5, 2018 / 06:07 PM EST
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. - Two families must now prepare to lay their loved ones to rest after a fatal crash. Police believe a suspected drunk driver crashed into Colts player Edwin Jackson and Uber driver Jeff Monroe early Sunday morning.
Members of Colts Nation and the Indianapolis community have been expressing their condolences to these families. One mother said she will always remember how Jackson went above and beyond to bring happiness to her family.
Mia Bradley's introduction to Jackson occurred at Riley Hospital for Children when Colts players went from one room to another singing Christmas carols. Jackson was a part of this group and wanted to do more for seven-year-old Amaya, who was diagnosed with cancer on December 15.
According to Bradley, Jackson asked the child what she liked and then left.
"He ended up coming back maybe 15 minutes later," Bradley said. "He had one of those rRley wagons full of toys for her."
Bradley said the linebacker returned to their room by himself to deliver coloring books, crayons and toys.
"He brightened up our life at a point when we were so low, so low,"Bradley said. "He didn’t even know us. He didn’t have to do that. He could’ve just went on about his day. But he came back to make sure my daughter had a good Christmas."
Bradley said Jackson shared words of encouragement as Amaya started her cancer treatment.
"He was like you know your daughter is strong, you guys are not defeated," Bradley said. "He doesn’t even know that was such an amazing stress reliever. Just something that he might’ve thought was small but to us was very big. He was an awesome man."
When this family learned of the crash that caused Jackson's death, the emotions were strong.
"Me and my son had to explain to my daughter what happened," Bradley said. "She was very sad. She was like 'Mommy, I know somebody like that is going to heaven because he cared about people he didn’t even know.'"
The last post Jackson shared to his Instagram page was of photos from his visit to Riley the day he met Bradley and her daughter.
Jeff Monroe's friends are also chiming in with memories.
"I really want people to know that Jeff was one of the kindest people I have ever known," said James Gibson. "He would drop whatever he was doing to help a friend, a neighbor or family. He was always putting others first. His wife was his world and he lover her with everything."
The Chief Operating Officer at Allison Payment Systems said Monroe worked at the company for about twenty years and will be very missed.
"Jeff was an individual who would do just about anything to help," said Clint Miller, a longtime co-worker. "If you needed advice or a ride to work, Jeff wouldn't hesistate to offer his assistance. He was loved by his co-workers and enjoyed his job as a printer operator very much. Uber/Lyft were his part time endeavors."
Georgia Rep. Greene says she plans to file articles of impeachment against Biden
Emotions must be put aside as Colts address personnel issues
More than 250,000 Indiana seniors sign up for COVID-19 vaccine
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Le Marché Tip-off
A daily email to learn French
Home Culture Books What to Know If You Want to Pretend Like You’ve Read a...
What to Know If You Want to Pretend Like You’ve Read a Lot of French Literature
Catherine Rickman
Geckoandfly
“What do you mean you don’t have “L’Albatros” by Charles Baudelaire memorized by heart?” is something you’ll be able to say to impress people with your dazzling intellect once you’ve read these classic French books. Or at least learned a few clever talking points so you can seem like you’ve read them.
The Stranger (L’Étranger), by Albert Camus
An existentialist, absurdist novella about a sociopath who kills a man “because it was hot” and can’t even cry at his own mother’s funeral.
“Since we’re all going to die, it’s obvious that when and how don’t matter.”
Les Misérables, by Victor Hugo
No, you can’t just see the musical and fake your way through. One of the longest novels ever written, Hugo’s diatribe on poverty as a means to moral corruption follows dozens of vignettes about France’s thieves, beggars, prostitutes, and other miserables.
“To love another person is to see the face of God.”
Les Fleurs du Mal (The Flowers of Evil), by Charles Baudelaire
The “Father of Modern Poetry” was initially arrested for publishing this collection of poems because of their brutality, blasphemy, and support of the gay agenda… Even though out of 126 poems, there are only three that mention lesbians.
“Folly and error, stinginess and sin/Possess our spirits and fatigue our flesh/And like a pet we feed our tame remorse/As beggars take to nourishing their lice.”
La Princesse des Clèves, by Madame de Lafayette
Known as the first psychological novel and published anonymously by a French noblewoman, the book is about a forbidden romance in Henry II’s court, and every French lycée student has to read it at least once.
“If you judge by appearances in this place,’ said Mme de Chartres, ‘you will often be deceived, because what appears to be the case hardly ever is.”
Le Petit Prince, by Antoine de Saint-Exupéry
One of the only kids books people will scoff at you for not having read, this tale about a little prince living on his own asteroid and his adventures around the universe packs in a lot of life lessons about human nature.
“And now here is my secret, a very simple secret: It is only with the heart that one can see rightly; what is essential is invisible to the eye.”
In Search of Lost Time, by Marcel Proust
AZ Quotes
A dense and winding commentary on time and meaning, just say something about “the madeleine scene” and no one will believe you haven’t read it… because they sure haven’t.
“The bonds between ourselves and another person exists only in our minds. Memory as it grows fainter loosens them, and notwithstanding the illusion by which we want to be duped and which, out of love, friendship, politeness, deference, duty, we dupe other people, we exist alone. Man is the creature who cannot escape from himself, who knows other people only in himself, and when he asserts the contrary, he is lying.”
Bonjour Tristesse, by Françoise Sagan
Vanbatson
A 17-year-old girl lazes around a villa sleeping with older men and trying to annoy her father’s mistresses. About as French as it gets.
“My love of pleasure seems to be the only consistent side of my character. Is it because I have not read enough?”
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Student Spotlight: Beth Sheeran, RN
January 21, 2019 By frontieredu
Frontier Nursing University (FNU) student Beth Sheeran, RN is a sexual assault nurse examiner (SANE) who is making waves both domestically and globally. Beth, who is in Family Nurse Practitioner (Class 166), is improving sexual assault care in her community while helping develop content for an open access online curriculum for international nursing students.
Beth practices in Spokane, Wash., in an emergency room setting where she cares for an urban population. She is cross-trained in domestic violence and pediatric sexual assault, skills that will complement her NP credential well in her domestic and global work.
“I chose the NP path because so many nurse clinicians in low resource countries work in the absence of a medical doctor and are responsible for diagnostics and prescribing,” she said.
Locally, Beth is working to raise awareness for the need of more SANE nurses to improve patient outcomes. Spokane has approximately one active and up-to-date SANE-trained nurse for every 20-30,000 citizens. Unfortunately, lack of access to SANE-trained nurses can create disparities in care.
Over the last year, Beth helped to launch an inter-agency central council of sexual assault nurses who are working on a systems level to improve care. The council recruits and networks with nursing students, increases public awareness, assists with policy development, and works to provide training to area nurses.
Beth volunteers in Guatemala in 2011
Globally, Beth and a team of nurse educators are developing online and open access curriculum content for low-resource countries through Nurses International (NI). NI hopes to launch the first BSN programs in countries such as Burundi, Guatemala, and Egypt.
“I realize the value of empowering nurses in the context of community through improved access to education,” she said. “I have been working on developing a career focused on empowering other clinicians.”
In her earlier years, Beth was on the receiving end of extensive medical care. Her experience inspired her to pursue nursing as soon as she regained health. She chose Frontier because of its reputation and mission of serving the underserved.
“I had full confidence that at Frontier, I would find a like-minded tribe and mentors capable of fostering the dream I have for the future,” she said.
While she continues at Frontier, Beth has worked with Washington State University and Representative Gina Mosbrucker to initiate a program focused on addressing the disparities faced by SANE nurses in rural Washington State. Find out more about Beth’s work on the Spokane SANE Facebook page.
We are proud to have you as part of our Frontier community, Beth! Keep up the inspiring work!
Filed Under: Faces of Frontier, News Tagged With: faces of frontier, Family Nurse Practitioner, Frontier Nursing University, Nurse Practitioner
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Student Spotlight: Madeline Anderson, RN, BSN, CLC
July 23, 2018 By frontieredu
Frontier Nursing University (FNU) student Madeline Anderson, RN, BSN, CLC is answering the call to serve a population of rural, underserved mothers – a call she experienced while halfway across the world. In April of 2018, Madeline traveled to Yala, Kenya with the Matibabu Foundation on a medical mission trip. A nurse-midwifery student at FNU, Madeline served in the maternity unit at Yala Hospital helping new moms deliver their children.
She was dismayed to find out that women in Kenya have to bring their own supplies to the hospital for after delivering their child – things like a bar of soap and a baby blanket – and many of them can’t afford those basic supplies.
Madeline, an RN in Labor & Delivery at Sky Ridge Medical Center in Lone Tree, Colo., returned stateside with a burning desire to see the new moms properly provided for. With two young children of her own, Madeline understood the importance for women to have healthy birth and postpartum experiences regardless of their economic status. Together with her friend Kate, she opened Mama Packs for Kenya, a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization that provides supplies for these new moms.
A new mother receives a “mama pack” with essentials for her newborn
The “mama packs,” which include: a roll of cotton, bar of soap, wash basin, baby blanket, plate, and cup, cost only $8-9 U.S. dollars to put together. Because Madeline works so closely with the Matibabu Foundation and the nurses at the Yala hospital, they are able to make all of the purchases for the packs in Kenya, saving on shipping and supporting the local economy.
Mama Packs for Kenya has had such a great response that the hospital in Yala is already receiving a surplus of packs. Madeline plans to expand into other local Kenyan hospitals with the help of the Matibabu Foundation.
Meanwhile, Madeline continues her FNU nurse-midwifery coursework. She is in CNEP class 158 and has found that her time at FNU has made her a more confident health care provider.
“My experience at Frontier has been awesome,” she said. “The classes have really helped with building my confidence.”
Madeline smiles with a mother and baby at Yala hospital
Madeline says having a better understanding of worldwide nursing and giving presentations in her classes prepared her for the opportunity to pass along her knowledge to many of the doctors and staff at Yala hospital.
“Before this I was really nervous to talk in front of people,” she said. “But while I was in Kenya, I was able to teach basic principles and resuscitation courses to the whole hospital staff. It’s really changing me from the nurse to the practitioner role.”
Madeline plans to pursue a DNP after completion of her MSN.
As Mama Packs for Kenya continues to grow, its biggest needs are monetary donations or volunteer hours. You can donate here, or learn more about volunteering here. You can also find Mama Packs for Kenya on Facebook and Instagram.
Due to poor staffing ratios, there is also a large need for nurses’ help in many Kenyan hospitals. If you are interested in using your nursing skills to serve the underserved in Kenya, contact Madeline.
Thank you, Madeline, for going above and beyond the call of service and representing FNU with excellence!
At the heart of Frontier Nursing University is a talented and diverse community of students, alumni, faculty, staff, Couriers and preceptors. Spotlight blogs feature members of our FNU community who are focused on the mission of educating nurse-midwives and nurse practitioners to deliver quality health care to underserved and rural populations.
Filed Under: Faces of Frontier, News, Nurse-Midwives Tagged With: faces of frontier, Frontier Nursing University, Master of Science in Nursing, Nurse-Midwifery
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ThriveCast Platform
Transformational Play Engine
Friday Reads: Is it a sport?
I spent some time today catching up on interesting reads in the world of eSports today and noticed the president of ESPN, John Skipper, mentioned he does not consider eSports to be sports. Here’s Skipper’s quote taken from re/code:
“It’s not a sport — it’s a competition. Chess is a competition. Checkers is a competition,” said Skipper last Thursday at the Code/Media Series: New York conference. “Mostly, I’m interested in doing real sports.”
More links on the matter:
Sorry, Twitch: ESPN’s Skipper Says eSports “Not a Sport”
ESPN Boss Declares eSports ‘Not A Sport’
ESPN’s president says that eSports are not ‘real sports,’ and he’s wrong
And, ICYMI – earlier this year, CGI Innovation Lab Intern, Ross Dunham, wrote a bit on the rise of eSports and the viewership traffic and business trends related to Twitch.tv:
Ross Dunham, Former CGI Innovation Lab Student
The growth of electronic sports — better known as eSports — has been rapid over the last two years. The term eSports is an umbrella that describes the competitive gaming community based around real-time strategy,fighting, first-person shooter, and multiplayer online battle arena games where teams of four or more compete for trophies and prize pools. As the community has evolved over time, video game developers are being asked to consider eSports when designing. The parallels between professional sports and eSports have become more and more prevalent as 2014 rolls along. Where football and basketball draw millions of viewers on a given night, the gaming community is gaining steam in that department. (click here to read the full piece)
What do you think about sports and eSports? For a general overview, there’s also Ross’s link roundup on eSports from last fall. Here’s a few more recent reads related to the ways eSports is having an impact on the world:
In E-Sports, Video Gamers Draw Real Crowds and Big Money
Why One School Is Giving Out League of Legends Scholarships
In any case, it seems that when it comes to business, the differences between sports and eSports may not matter. Did you come across anything interesting related to eSports this week? Share your reads with us on Facebook, Twitter, or here in the comments.
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Monsanto Halts Its Bid to Buy Rival Syngenta—For Now
<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/gallery-320989p1.html?cr=00&pl=edit-00">360b</a> / <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/editorial?cr=00&pl=edit-00">Shutterstock.com</a>
After four months of hot pursuit, genetically modified seed/pesticide giant Monsanto formally ended its bid to buy rival Syngenta Wednesday—at least for now. Earlier in the week, Monsanto had sweetened its offer for the Swiss agrochemical behemoth—most famous for its controversial atrazine herbicide and neonicotinoid pesticides—to $47 billion, in an effort to convince Syngenta’s management and shareholders to accept the merger. They balked, and Monsanto management opted to halt the effort, declaring in a press release that it would instead “focus on its growth opportunities built on its existing core business to deliver the next wave of transformational solutions for agriculture.”
However, Monsanto may just be pausing, not fully halting, its buyout push. The company’s press release states that it’s “no longer pursuing [the] current proposal” (emphasis added) to buy its rival, and quickly added that the combination “would have created tremendous value for shareowners of both companies and farmers.” And as Dow Jones’ Jacob Bunge notes, Monsanto CEO Hugh Grant “has coveted Syngenta since at least 2011, and said in a June interview that he viewed the effort as ‘a long game.'”
The logic that has driven Monsanto’s zeal for a deal remains in place: It wants to diversify away from its reliance on seeds by buying Syngenta, the world’s biggest purveyor of pesticides (more on that here).
Meanwhile, Monsanto has been actively hyping up a new generation of pesticides, still in the development stage, which work by killing crop-chomping pests by silencing certain genes. But the company doesn’t expect the novel sprays to hit the market until 2020—a timeline that may be overly optimistic, as I show here.
New Monsanto Spray Kills Bugs by Messing With Their Genes
Study: Monsanto’s Roundup Herbicide Probably Causes Cancer [UPDATED]
What Did Monsanto Show Bill Nye to Make Him Fall “in Love” With GMOs?
How Monsanto’s Big Data Push Hurts Small Farms
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November/December 2007 Issue
Schlock and Awwww: Commercializing Altruism
Every week, Ty Pennington brings the American Dream to a deserving family. What a freakin’ jerk.
Jon Mooallem
Illustration: John Cuneo
“in charity,” Francis Bacon wrote, “there is no excess.” But then Bacon never saw Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, which since 2003 has been meting out garish and super-sized acts of charity—each more skillfully choreographed and excessive than the last—every Sunday night on abc.
Each week, the reality show’s “design team,” led by cloying carpenter Ty Pennington, parks its tour bus at the dilapidated doorstep of a deserving, downtrodden family and unleashes a whopping assault of good will. After hugging the family, Pennington commiserates in his hushed tone of surferesque sincerity (he often talks to people as if they are crying, even if they haven’t yet started) and then offers hope. “Here’s the good news,” he tells a single mother in Mississippi whose three children have learned to defecate in plastic bags because they have no plumbing. “We’re here now, and things are going to get better.”
Typically, at this point the family is whisked off to Disney World and the design team begins demolishing its house and building a better one—fully landscaped and prominently decorated with brand-name appliances and furnishings supplied by Sears, Home Depot, and the show’s other sponsors—in one week. The family returns to a crowd of neighbors, volunteer builders, and well-wishers chanting “Move that bus!” before the team’s motor coach peels away from the curb, revealing the new home.
Just like that, Makeover plucks poor or working-class people from their misfortunes and not only gives them a new Owens Corning roof over their heads, but—the implication is—newfound stability and comfort. Often the family also gets a new car, computers, or college scholarships for the kids. These changes can be profound. That Mississippi mom, reeling beside her new Ford Edge suv while Pennington shouts, “It looks great, it’s fun to drive, and best of all it’s all yours!” mentions that she’s never owned a new car before. Suddenly we grasp the life-changing enormity of just giving her a reliable vehicle. But wait—here are an iPod, modern art, bicycles, a karaoke machine, Panasonic flat-screen TVs, a collection of African percussion for her son, and a spacious new storefront for her fledgling business. Plus, gospel singer CeCe Winans has turned up to raise the family a nest egg!
We are increasingly tuning in to this brand of life-affirming transformation, whether it’s Ty and the gang framing up a starter mansion, Madonna whisking children out of Malawi and into the tabloids, Oprah opening a school for impoverished South African girls, or Michael Moore—spouting the kind of schmaltzy platitudes Pennington has perfected—delivering sick and forgotten 9/11 rescue workers to the handsome Cuban doctors who will treat them for free.
These are feel-good narratives, meticulously polished to make us feel good about ourselves, too. With each cathartic conclusion, it’s easy to believe that we are contributing to the healing when in fact we are just watching TV. Moreover, the ideal of domesticity into which Makeover deposits its families—the outsized house, the stainless-steel appliances and items from the Sears “Ty Pennington Style” collection—feeds our love of consumption and luxury; nobody tunes in to watch Habitat for Humanity build multiple modest houses. Frankly, the whole package is irresistible. More than once, I have caught myself mouthing “Move that bus!” along with the crowd.
And yet even as I am moved by such acts of kindness, I also feel an uncontrollable urge to cut them down. Makeover is schlock. But as reality TV increasingly concocts its schlock out of actual hardship and actual kindness, deriding it can open some unsettling moral terrain. I felt a certain smugness, for example, watching American Idol‘s “Idol Gives Back” fundraising special last April. There was Ryan Seacrest, fresh from handing out meals to aids orphans in Kenya, clutching a child and urging him to just “let it out.” And there I was: sitting on my couch, eating a tremendous burrito, scoffing at the man who had traveled across the globe to feed orphans.
Clearly, something was wrong. I have never fed aids orphans. I have never built anyone a house. By these measures, I don’t stack up very well at all against Ty Pennington and his cadre of extreme prime-time altruists.
I feel only slightly less conflicted about mocking Makeover knowing that it can’t always deliver the fairy-tale endings it suggests. Several newspaper reports have exposed how some Makeover families wind up unprepared for their new, exponentially higher utility bills and property taxes. A blind New Jersey man with three disabled children and a $14,000 tax bill on his new abode told one paper, “With all the taxes, it’s like we’re on a chopping block.” Meanwhile, five siblings featured on an Easter Sunday 2005 episode recently sued their adoptive parents for driving them out of the nine-bedroom, six-bathroom house built for them. They also sued the show for rebroadcasting their episode knowing that its ending had soured. The kids’ attorney happily revealed to the Los Angeles Times that the show’s touching “door knock” scene, in which the design team first arrived at the house and dispensed hugs, took seven takes to shoot.
Even infrequent viewers will notice how the show has tightened its stranglehold on our consciences by gradually inflating its misery quotient. While the first season featured a couple that needed a larger home for its (surprise!) triplets, only two seasons later we were deep into a gallery of woe: twins with leukemia, the mother of a little girl who wandered off to catch fireflies and disappeared forever. In a memo acquired by the Smoking Gun website, a producer asks the show’s casting agents to look for a kid with “congenital insensitivity to pain”: “There are 17 known cases in US, let me know if one is in your town!”
It’s easy to resent Makeover for the ways it simultaneously helps and exploits its beneficiaries. But when it comes down to it, I resent Makeover because it exploits me. I can feel it bullying me for my compassion, extracting it with a ham-fisted conspiracy of narration, editing, and musical accompaniment. What ultimately offends me about Makeover is that it takes humanity and turns it into bad art. It’s an affront to my aesthetics more than my morals.
There’s some solace, perhaps, in knowing that kindness is popular enough to be shamelessly commodified—that charity sells. And that thankfully, not everyone who comes into contact with the show is distracted by its wretched artifice. “I really think a community could do this without the cameras, without Hollywood,” a Missouri woman told a local paper after Makeover wrapped an episode in her town. After all, all of the labor on the show is volunteer. And while few community groups could get the truckloads of lavish furnishings Makeover does without the kickback of prime-time exposure, not everyone needs cameras trained on them in order to act selflessly.
Wasn’t it stirring to see so many people racing down to the Gulf Coast to contribute plywood, sweat, and compassion after Hurricane Katrina? Witnessing the efforts of volunteers in her hometown of Pass Christian, Mississippi, Good Morning America‘s Robin Roberts felt compelled to remind viewers, “This is not Extreme Makeover: Home Edition. This is true reality TV.”
But even “true reality TV” demands that no act of genuine altruism be left unhyped. And so Roberts signaled for a humongous banner to be pulled away, revealing the progress made on rebuilding one woman’s home. But there was more. “CeCe Winans is going to sing for us,” Roberts smiled. “She’s gonna lift our spirits with song!”
Who Was Naive About Bernie Sanders Meeting the Sandinistas?
Jonathan M. Katz
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Apartheid cops’ change of heart
Pam Squyres
The end of apartheid turned South Africa upside down: Heads of the anti-apartheid groups that were once considered terrorists now govern South African and Namibia. And the Johannesburg DAILY MAIL & GUARDIAN reports that many former members of the Koetvoet, the apartheid-era police unit that specialized in killing anti-apartheid activists, are torn with remorse on realizing, too late, they were fighting for the wrong side.
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It’s true that the elite unit known for cutting off the ears of its victims still retains a certain perverse pride in the group’s effectiveness (“We did good work. We were described by many an international journalist as the best anti-terrorist unit in the world.”)
But, looking back, many Koetvoet veterans feel they were lied to by the apartheid regime. “They told us we were fighting the swart gevaar (black danger) and communism. But now SWAPO and the ANC have the most democratic constitutions in the world,” lamented one former member. Guilt and public condemnation have taken a heavy toll, leading to nervous breakdowns and suicides.
The retired apartheid flunkies feel a certain comradeship with castoffs from an American conflict: “It is the Vietnam syndrome. You are not being acknowledged for who you are, that you fought as a soldier for your country.”
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Four Times Falluja Equals?
Four possible scenarios from our now Fallujanized world and what they tell us about Iraq and ourselves.
Introduction by Tom Engelhardt
And so we barge through another door marked “Open With Caution” and into yet another wing of our new age of extremity whose rooms now seem to extend in all directions forever. And this descent into barbarism is being reported to us in the anodyne language of embedded war reporters.
In the meantime, back in Bush’s Washington, we seem to have drifted out of the Persian Gulf and down the Mekong River into the Land That Time Forgot (but that Americans can never quite get out of their brains) — a.k.a. Vietnam. There’s our President receiving reports from his generals on our “progress” in a country suffering the sort of regression that in a human being would leave you hospitalized, if not locked away for life. Shades of General William Westmoreland and President Lyndon Baines Johnson.
Then, there are our fighting commanders offering pep talks invoking the glorious tradition of Hue, the former Vietnamese imperial capital which, in the bitterest siege of that war, was all but leveled; finally, there’s our Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld back at his old stand-up lectern talking about how we’re just possibly reaching the “tipping” point in Iraq — where public opinion will shift over to us. (For those who remember, the long slide downhill in Vietnam was greased with such “points,” including the famed “crossover point” when we would kill more of the enemy than they could replace, or as General Westmoreland put it famously at the National Press Club in November 1967: “We have reached an important point when the end begins to come into view.” It turned out to be the end of the beginning of the beginning of the end, if I remember rightly.)
It’s not, as I’ve argued before, that Iraq and Vietnam are simple analogs, but that our leaders can’t get Vietnam off the brain. It’s the collective correlative of a guilty conscience for an administration otherwise completely lacking one; and filled, Colin Powell excepted, with people who were unwilling to have anything to do with the Vietnam War in their own earlier lives.
In the meantime, our re-embedded reporters return to the kind of docility and general boosterism that was the hallmark of the early Vietnam years. In our press, extremity only fits others. So our journalists can report on the barbaric extremity of enemy acts — the beheadings, kidnappings, “hostage slaughterhouses” and the like — in an appropriate way. But our role in the roiling extremity that is Iraq remains largely beyond them. It’s cleansed from the very language they automatically employ. Nothing startling here, of course. This is, after all, but a “balanced” press version of American exceptionalism.
Recently the always interesting Anatol Lieven published a new book, America Right or Wrong (which I soon plan to read). It sports the subtitle, “An Anatomy of American Nationalism.” While Lieven is identified on the book jacket as a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington D.C., the subtitle is a pure giveaway as to his un-American-ness. (The poor sap is a Brit, I think.) If he were an American journalist he would never have linked the word “nationalism” (a state of unreasonable zeal for one’s own land) to “American.” Americans, it’s well known, are “patriotic” or, if driven toward the dreaded moniker “nationalistic,” then “super-patriotic.” It’s well known here, just taken for granted, that only foreigners are “nationalistic,” or worse yet, “nationalists.”
Similarly, in Iraq, the FFs or “foreign fighters” are invariably Syrians, Saudis, Yemenis, Tunisians and other mad Muslims who slip across borders into places like Falluja to fight us. Americans, who boldly invade to liberate, cannot be FFs ever. Our good intentions evidently leave us implicitly at home wherever we go and whatever we do, though no one could deny that American troops are by definition “foreign fighters” in Iraq and, to judge by news reports, increasingly feel that way. (Here I issue a challenge: Any reader who can find a passage written by an American journalist in any mainstream news report in any of our major papers since the invasion of Iraq which refers to American troops as “foreigners” even once will get the Tomdispatch all-expenses-paid trip to sunny Abu Ghraib.)
Similarly, in a recent New York Times front-page story by Edward Wong and Eric Schmitt, large numbers of the rebels and jihadists in Falluja were said, both in the headline (The Insurgents: Rebel Fighters Who Fled Attack May Now Be Active Elsewhere) and in first sentence, to have “fled.” (“Insurgent leaders in Falluja probably fled before the American-led offensive and may be coordinating attacks in Iraq that have left scores dead over the past few days, according to American military officials here.”) Now, maybe they did flee, but assumedly neither those military officials, nor Wong and Schmitt were actually there to watch them fleeing. The only relevant quote in the piece, from a cell-phone interview with a “midlevel commander” of the insurgency speaks of “leaving” Falluja. Since the American offensive was long announced and coordinated fighting has broken out elsewhere in the Sunni areas of Iraq, it would be as logical to speak of the Fallujan fighters “redeploying” (as American troops brought to Falluja did). But flight, of course, implies cowardice.
Similarly, former American generals, now TV consultants, have flocked back onto TV to decry the rebels and jihadists for being so cowardly as to mix in with the civilian population (as guerrillas invariably do). They should, the implication is, come out and fight like men. No American journalist would ever claim, however, that American pilots in AC-130 gunships or jets attacking Falluja are cowardly, though they are obviously using another type of cover. War, of course, is like that. Each side tends to use the advantages it has. Guerillas not mixing with the population are likely to find themselves not manly or brave but dead, as many undoubtedly now are in Falluja, when facing American fire power in anything like the open or isolation.
But American exceptionalism — the deep belief that our motives are uniquely pure, our goals singularly above reproach — means that descriptions of our actions don’t fit any of the language categories in which we put those we fight. This is essential to our war coverage — and largely unexamined. When, for instance, our planes destroy or our troops capture a clinic or hospital, as we did in our first and second acts in Falluja, the reporting on this may be grim — patients and doctors rousted from hospital rooms, thrown on the floor and handcuffed — and yet because Americans have done this, there will be no mention of the Geneva Conventions which such an act almost certainly contravenes. (The Fourth Geneva Convention contains this clear passage: “Civilian hospitals organized to give care to the wounded and sick, the infirm and maternity cases, may in no circumstances be the object of attack but shall at all times be respected and protected by the Parties to the conflict.”) Similar acts — the dropping of 500, 1,000 or 2,000 pound bombs in major urban areas (sometimes to kill a single sniper) or the turning back of men trying to flee Falluja (because we have no way of telling whether they are civilians or fighters) — lead similarly down a steep but unacknowledged path to Hell.
Last night on the prime-time news, a video was run of an American tank blowing the minaret off a mosque (where, again contravening the Geneva Conventions, one or more snipers were hidden). The only comment or commentary offered was a brief interview with an American soldier on the scene offering the completely understandable ground-level view that this was “no holds barred” warfare and his troops had to be protected. But, folks, we’re talking about the so- called City of a Thousand Mosques. Imagine an al Qaeda sniper in the steeple of an American church or cathedral and how Americans might react.
Or let’s imagine this: If American claims are accurate and (like the Russians before they went in and leveled the Chechnyan capital of Grozny), we did our best to get civilians out of Falluja, possibly a couple of hundred thousand of them, where did they go? Tens of thousands of refugees, homeless and desperate? Where are the articles about them? Who is thinking about what will happen when they finally return to a city in ruins, to homes that may no longer exist in neighborhoods that have been pounded into rubble in areas possibly lacking the most basic services or functioning hospitals? These are, as Naomi Klein points out on the Alternet website, the future “voters” of Sunni Iraq.
The decision by American strategists to “take” Falluja the second time around leads us directly into the charnel house of history. Unfortunately, even to think reasonably about what’s unfolding in Iraq you need to leave the American press behind. Only elsewhere in the world are the obvious analogies to Falluja (or Iraq) today coming to mind. Take the Russian destruction of the city of Grozny from whose ruins so many years later guerillas still ambush Russian troops, as described by former Australian diplomat Tony Kevin in the Sydney Morning Herald; or the eerie and depressing parallels — right down to the beheadings — to the Algerian independence struggle against the French (“the first campaign in which poorly equipped Muslim mujaheddin licked one of the top Western armies”) as described by Alistair Horne in The Spectator, the conservative British publication; or the Syrian destruction of the city of Hama as considered by Charles Glass in the British Independent.
Only elsewhere (or on the Internet) are you likely to find mention of the Geneva Conventions when hospitals are taken or mosques blown apart. Only elsewhere is the language of American war-making and war reporting questioned or the efficacy (no less morality) of bombing civilian populations in major urban centers considered.
The other day CNN had a report on the recent actions of the French military in the Ivory Coast. In the headline and the subsequent report, the French were lambasted for their “hypocrisy” in opposing our actions in Iraq and yet acting like the former colonial masters they are in the Ivory Coast. I assure you, however, that you can search the American press or television in vain for a single report that might link the word “hypocrisy” to the Bush administration for any of its actions. It’s just not in our journalistic dictionary, and that dictionary ensures that, even as our leaders push ever further into the age of extremism — remember, Alberto Gonzales, just nominated as our next Attorney General, oversaw the White House effort to create a legalistic framework for an offshore torture regime — it’s nearly impossible for American readers to grasp the extremity of the situation.
Depending on what news report you read, American troops have by now taken 50% or 70% or 90% of Falluja. The real question, though, is 50-70-90% of what? In the meantime, after initially upbeat reports, it looks like there will be significant American casualties in Falluja, which means growing anger and frustration, which means ever more extreme acts on the ground.
So here’s an old Vietnam-era word that might have been worth bringing back as our Fallujan offensive began: “escalation.” The widespread destruction in Falluja represents an escalation of our Iraq war. It represents an extremity of behavior (on both sides), horrific in itself, for which there will be a cost as yet unknown. As small-scale running battles, assassinations, and car bombings now shake Mosul, Samarra, and other cities in Sunni Iraq, we see yet more doors marked “Open With Caution,” or even “Do Not Enter,” before us, and yet more tanks and jets and angry soldiers, and more frustrated American commanders and strategists ready to barge through them.
What we need now is not our usual set of embedded reporters, but the artist Hieronymous Bosch back from the grave to paint us the necessary pictures. After all, we’ve already seen what the liberation of Najaf and Falluja look like. But what will Iraq look like after we’ve liberated Samarra and Mosul and who knows where else — and the insurgency only grows? Below, Mark Levine considers four possible scenarios from our now Fallujanized world and what they tell us about Iraq and ourselves.
By Mark LeVine
As American forces penetrate ever deeper and more destructively into the city of Falluja, each of the major players in this violent drama is engaged in a complex, constantly shifting calculus involving ways of turning events to their advantage. Of the many possible outcomes to the battle of Falluja, the four which seem most plausible follow, starting with the one that might be viewed most positively by the Bush administration. In sum, they offer us a grim picture of how the window of success has closed on American strategists in Iraq. Even the “best” outcomes below (from the administration’s point of view) have lost the trappings of freedom and democracy that helped justify the invasion nineteen months ago.
The Hama Solution: In 1982, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad put down a potential nationwide revolt of religious activists associated with the Muslim Brotherhood by killing upwards of 20,000 people in the city of Hama, essentially flattening its central districts in the process. In an Iraqi version of the “Hama solution,” the Americans and their Iraqi allies would take Falluja relatively quickly — at whatever cost to its essential infrastructure — in the process killing the majority of the resistance fighters in the city along with uncounted civilians who were too poor, young, old or infirm to flee before the invasion. Falluja would then act as a terrifying example to other rebellious Iraqi cities. The end, however temporary, of Mutaqa al-Sadr’s Shia insurgency in the early fall increased the likelihood of success for such a move, freeing up as it did American troops from Najaf in the south and from the Shi’i slum of Sadr City in Baghdad. At the same time, the many month-long threat of a massive attack on Falluja seems to have created fracture lines in the resistance between indigenous groups seeking political solutions that might avoid mass civilian casualties and smaller groups of foreign jihadists, unbound by local ties and determined to fight to the death.
On the other hand, all those months of saber rattling evidently allowed many local fighters and jihadist leaders to leave the city before the invasion began, a troublesome development for American strategists and the interim government of Iyad Allawi as they seek to pacify the larger Sunni Triangle in time for announced elections in January. In the last week, after all, insurgents reoccupied the city center of Ramadi, attacked fiercely in Samarra, fought it out in Baghdad neighborhoods, and left authority in Mosul tottering, while American troops were occupied with the battle of Falluja — and these were just a few of the many indications that, no matter what happens in Falluja, the insurgency is anything but defeated.
Yet if enough resistance fighters are killed to reclaim Falluja and sap the force of the insurgency in other cities, American strategists can at least hope to be on their way to a limited pacification of Sunni Iraq. Sunni leaders might next be bought off or co-opted and enough followers, fighters, and civilians, killed elsewhere to quiet the country for the next several months. Iraq would then have its “successful” election, and the Bush Administration would breathe a huge sigh of relief. So would Prime Minister Allawi who, according to a senior Iraqi official with whom I’ve spoken in recent days, is still livid that the Americans bypassed him to negotiate an end to the siege of Najaf. (According to my source, the bandaged hand Allawi sported during his recent trip to New York came from “banging his hands on the wall” after leaning of a secret meeting between American Ambassador John Negroponte and Shiite rebel leaders.) In one fashion or another, in this scenario, “democracy” would mean an extension of the Allawi government via a limited and managed election.
The ongoing, seemingly ceaseless violence in the Palestinian Occupied Territories under Israeli occupation reminds us that pacifying an occupied population is an endless job. But if, as the Bush administration now hopes, the insurgency can simply be tamped down, when it resurfaces next spring it will be the problem of an elected Iraqi government. American troops, in the meanwhile, would largely be withdrawn to a dozen or more major bases lowering American casualties; yet they could be called back into action any time violence threatened to get out of hand. Iraq would then take its place beside Colombia, Israel, and Sri Lanka, to name only a few of the many countries plagued by ongoing but “manageable” political violence — while the United States would remain astride the second largest oil reserves in the world. This is today the best option available to the Bush administration.
The Jenin Scenario: If Falluja is largely subdued but low-level fighting continues for weeks or months in its back streets, chaos and anarchy might increase across the country, forcing a curtailment or postponement of the January elections, and yet the overall situation might not spin completely out of American control. The Allawi government would remain more or less in power in Baghdad and American troops could continue to occupy the country indefinitely (under the argument that the United States can’t leave Iraq in the midst of chaos). The insurgency would be slowly exhausted over a longer period of time, laying the groundwork for a post-independence system favorable to American interests.
Here, the example of the 2002 Israeli siege of the Palestinian refugee camp in Jenin might prove the model for the present Falluja campaign. It stirred up incredible anger, violence, and chaos in Palestinian society and outrage internationally, but when the dust settled — as it usually does –Israel’s strategic position was actually stronger than before.
Even if the dust doesn’t settle quite as advantageously in Iraq, or settle at all, Bush Administration hawks could turn the ensuing low-level chaos to their immediate advantage by allowing it, or encouraging it to spread to Syria (near whose border the U.S. recently staged a bloody invasion of the Iraqi town of Tal Afar) or Iran (already in the sights of senior Administration officials, regardless of any nuclear deal its leaders may sign with the Europeans). In fact, it is well known that Israeli operatives have been working with Kurds in both border regions to gauge the feasibility of such a scenario. In the meantime, according to Iraqi officials I’ve spoken with, American oil companies are quietly exploring the 90% of Iraq where oil deposits have yet to be tapped, free of potentially embarrassing scrutiny by a media focused on urban violence rather than desert oil. American casualties would also remain limited; media attention modest; and so a Jenin scenario would be seen, under the circumstances, as a quiet but significant victory by the Bush administration.
The “British” Solution (or 1920 Revisited): If the invasion of Falluja backfires — if the fighting drags on and, for instance, there is evidence of large-scale civilian casualties, perhaps broadcast to the world by a dreaded al-Jazeera reporter via video phone — Iraqi public opinion might be inflamed to the point of sparking a more general Sunni or yet more significantly Sunni-Shi’i revolt. This actually happened in 1920 when occupying British troops tried to use massive force to pacify the country and the results were devastating for the occupiers (as well as the occupied); or if the resistance in Falluja proves more resilient or better armed than American military officials assume it to be and is capable of dragging out the fighting until a desperate compromise solution along the lines of the deal to end the Najaf siege becomes inevitable, a revolt might also be encouraged; or if the insurgents, with months to plan, left only a minimal force in Falluja to fight a delaying action against the Americans and their Iraqi allies and are able to conduct a larger, sustained insurgency across Sunni (and parts of Shiite) Iraq, as seems increasingly likely, the result could be the same.
Any one of these developments or any combination of them would destroy what is left of the credibility of the Americans and of the Interim Iraqi Government. If not contained, the present insurgency, facing overwhelming and relatively indiscriminate American power, could spark a more general revolt, joined by significant number of Shi’ites (whose leaders, unlike during the first siege of Falluja in April, have so far remained relatively quiet). It would capitalize on the intense anger felt by a country that has seen as many as 100,000 of its citizens killed in the last eighteen months. With the political costs of retreat almost incalculable, the Bush administration in turn might ratchet up the violence (as it did in Vietnam) before considering real withdrawal strategies, hoping that the prospect of tens of thousands of further deaths in the next year would lead Iraqis to accept some continued American military presence in the country and, most important, a continued hand in the management of the country’s petroleum resources.
The “French” Scenario: Any version of the “British” solution might, sooner or later, lead the Bush administration into the thickets of the even more unsettling “French” scenario. In this, a growing awareness of the human toll of the occupation, coupled with levels of political corruption that are already staggering would lend force to a desire to internationalize the next phase of Iraq’s transition to full sovereignty. (A former top Allawi aide, who recently escaped the country, summed up Iraqi despair on the issue of corruption in lamenting to me that “the new regime is the same as Saddam’s, just with different faces.”) The “French” scenario might involve the intercession of France, Germany, and Spain, joined by UN Secretary General Kofi Anan and supported by a resurgent worldwide anti-war movement aroused by the ongoing horrors of Iraq. With the insurgency still under way, pressure would be applied for a cease-fire coupled with an internationalization of the transition to sovereignty based on the complete failure of the United States and the Allawi government to stabilize the country. French President Chirac’s stated desire to build a counterweight to U.S. power and Kofi Anan’s rising displeasure with U.S. actions could encourage such a development, as could the resignation of the Sunni members of the interim government and a full-scale Sunni boycott of any future American-organized elections. While the United States and the British would likely veto any Security Council resolution to mandate such a move, the groundswell of support for it could lead to major changes in the management of the occupation in the lead-up to elections.
If all four outcomes described above are striking for what they reveal about the narrowing of the Bush Administration’s grand vision of a democratic and prosperous Iraq, the last one — a kind of final humiliation — would certainly be fiercely resisted by American officials and the Allawi government (nor would some factions of the insurgency be any too pleased by the possibility).
The wild card in the current crisis is the Iraqi people who, since the toppling of the Hussein regime, have more often than not remained horrified spectators while their country’s political landscape has been reshaped. This passivity, though understandable given the Iraqi experience over the previous two decades, has proved as disastrous for them and their country as the passivity of Palestinians was during the crucial early years of the Oslo peace process (which in actuality allowed Israel to increase significantly its West Bank and Gaza settlements, while Yasir Arafat cemented his autocratic and corrupt rule virtually cost-free).
Ayatollah Ali Sistani’s call for a massive nonviolent mobilization to end the siege of Najaf and the success of women’s groups in preventing a rollback of their social rights, both demonstrate that the Iraqi people can become active shapers of their own destiny. Were the Shiites to pour into the streets nationwide, as they did in Najaf in response to Sistani, the Iraqi situation would immediately take on a different look and the American occupation might find its days quickly numbered. But can Iraqi society challenge the violent calculus of American military planners and insurgents alike with a vision of a future free of occupation and autocracy, corruption and extremism? More than wishing the Iraqis well, the international community needs to get its hands dirty to ensure that they have a fighting chance.
Mark LeVine is professor of modern Middle Eastern history, culture, and Islamic studies at the University of California Irvine and author of the forthcoming books Why They Don’t Hate Us: Lifting the Veil on the Axis of Evil and Overthrowing Geography: Jaffa, Tel Aviv and the Struggle for Palestine, 1880-1948, He is also the editor with Viggo Mortensen and Pilar Perez of Twilight of Empire: Responses to Occupation. He last spent time in Iraq in the early spring of this year.
Copyright C2004 Mark LeVine
This piece first appeared at Tomdispatch.com.
Tom Dispatch
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Former Iowa GOP Leader Says Ron Paul Will Win Straw Poll
Unlike his fellow GOP presidential contender Rick Santorum, Ron Paul doesn't mind if you Google him.<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/21836324@N02/2110915392/sizes/z/in/photostream/">madwurm</a>/Flickr
On Friday Craig Robinson, the former political director of the Republican Party of Iowa and current editor-in-chief of the influential Iowa Republican (TIR) news site, boldly reconfirmed his earlier prediction that Texas Rep. Ron Paul would win Saturday’s Ames Straw Poll. On Saturday afternoon, after speeches by Newt Gingrich, Gov. Terry Branstad, and the notorious conservative Iowa Rep. Steve King at the TIR tent, I asked Robinson if his opinion had changed.
“There’s an awful lot of people on the backside of this building,” where Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, and Rick Santorum all set up shop, Robinson said, but from his vantage point he hadn’t been able to judge the success of Ron Paul’s and Tim Pawlenty’s turnout operations. (The enigmatic Thaddeus McCotter is within Robinson’s view, too, but hasn’t attracted much attention despite his safety clown van.)
“I think turnout’s going to be high, and for me I think that kind of lends itself to a Bachmann victory, maybe, or even an upset from someone else,” Robinson said. He’s still predicting that Paul and Bachmann will take the top two spots (not necessarily in that order), and—with the caveat that he hadn’t seen Pawlenty’s tent, where turnout has been strong too—a surprisingly good finish by Cain or Santorum. (Paul, who paid top-dollar for his tent location, has had a strong group of supporters hanging out near Hilton Colisium, where the candidates are speaking.)
Tim Pawlenty tries to win over straw poll voters with BBQ ribs. (Photo: Gavin Aronsen)The first part of Robinson’s comment is in line with today’s conventional wisdom: a high turnout will help Michele Bachmann while a lower turnout would have been better for Paul or Tim Pawlenty, considered by many to be Bachmann’s top rival at the straw poll. The turnout does look high, with Bachmann drawing a huge lunch line in a packed tent that smells like MoJo reporter Tim Murphy’s soccer cleats.
There was a similar narrative in 2007, when prognosticators said a large turnout would help Mitt Romney and a lower turnout would give the win to Mike Huckabee. Romney won that time.
Who Is GOP Presidential Candidate Thaddeus McCotter?
The Rick Perry-Shaped Elephant in the Room at Ames
Rick Santorum Cordially Invites You to His Dance Party
What You Need to Know About the Ames Straw Poll
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Senators Will Get to Know When Obama Can Kill Americans—But You Won’t
Fake drone. <a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&search_source=search_form&search_tracking_id=76247A68-85D2-11E2-96E0-12CDACE6966E&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&searchterm=drone&search_group=&orient=&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&commercial_ok=&color=&show_color_wheel=1#id=116770390&src=82B91B3A-85D2-11E2-990B-94BF37D0D1A0-1-5">Paul Fleet </a>/Shutterstock
The White House has agreed to more widely share secret Justice Department memos justifying the targeted killing of American citizens suspected of terrorism, Senate intelligence committee chair Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) announced Tuesday.
The documents had become an issue in the Obama administration’s push to have counterterrorism official John Brennan confirmed as the next director of the Central Intelligence Agency. “I am pleased the administration has made this information available,” Feinstein said in a statement sent to reporters. “It is important for the committee to do its work and will pave the way for the confirmation of John Brennan to be CIA director.” The committee is expected to vote on Brennan’s confirmation Tuesday afternoon.
Until last month, the legislators charged with overseeing United States intelligence operations had not been allowed to read the memos. But then, on the eve of John Brennan’s confirmation hearing, senators were allowed to see some of the documents—but were not allowed to share them with their staff.
According to a Senate aide, committee staff (one aide per member) will now also be able to view the memos. That step is welcomed by Raha Wala, an attorney with Human Rights First. “Many congressional staff—including some that are lawyers—have the necessary expertise to evaluate the legal and policy claims being advanced in these memos,” he says. “Oversight without their participation would be oversight in name only.” Wala also says other committees, such as the Senate and House judiciary committees, should also be allowed access to the memos.
Following Feinstein’s announcement, Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Mark Udall (D-Colo.), and Susan Collins (R-Maine) released a joint statement saying they would now support Brennan’s confirmation: “We are pleased that we now have the access that we have long sought and need to conduct the vigilant oversight with which the committee has been charged.” Wyden had told the Daily Beast last week that he felt “very strongly that the intelligence committee has to have any and all legal opinions related to targeted killings before there is a committee vote.”
The three senators asked the Obama administration to be even more open: “The appropriate next step should be to bring the American people into this debate.” Their statement also praised Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) for insisting that the Obama administration answer questions related to its claimed authority to use lethal force within the United States, and suggested that some answers would soon be made available. “We are particularly pleased that the administration will provide public, unclassified answers to questions about whether these lethal authorities can be used within the United States,” the senators said. Paul’s office told Mother Jones that they had received a written answer to one of his questions, but did not state whether he would withdraw his threat to filibuster Brennan’s nomination.
Human rights advocates expressed satisfaction that the Obama administration has decided to be more forthcoming with its legal authorities regarding targeted killing, but pointed out that the issue the Senate was focused on—terror suspects who are American citizens—was a narrow one.
“As far as we know, these memos likely cover only one targeting decision—the targeting of Anwar al-Awlaki—in the hundreds that have occurred during the Bush and Obama administrations,” Wala said. “This is an important step forward, but it’s woefully inadequate to guarantee robust oversight of the targeted killing program.”
Former Obama Officials Call for Oversight Over Targeted Killing
Here’s Why Obama Won’t Say Whether He Can Kill You With a Drone: Because He Probably Can
Senator: Let’s Have a Targeted Killing Court
Obama Targeted Killing Document: If We Do It, It’s Not Illegal
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N.C.’s Transgender Skirmish Is Just the Latest in a Long History of Bathroom Freakouts
Let us take you back.
Virginia, 1958 Eve Arnold/Magnum Photos
The battle over public toilets in North Carolina is pretty much overflowing. Last week, the Justice Department threatened to sue the state, or strip some of its federal funding, if it did not scrap its divisive law barring transgender people from using bathrooms that match their gender identity. On Monday, North Carolina’s governor responded by suing the Justice Department, accusing it of “baseless and blatant overreach”—and of “being a bully.” The Obama administration promptly countersued, describing the restroom restrictions as “impermissibly discriminatory.” (And did you catch that speech by Attorney General Loretta Lynch?) If the feds make good on their threat, the University of North Carolina stands to lose more than $1.4 billion.
Why is everyone suddenly so fired up about bathrooms and gender? Well, it turns out this kind of blowout is nothing new. During the Victorian era, English women had to fight for access to public bathrooms, which were only available for men. During the civil rights era, efforts to block black Americans from public toilets sometimes turned violent. We looked back at some of the bathroom freakouts that have brought us to where we are today.
2nd century B.C.
Fubar Obfusco/Wikipedia
In Rome’s public latrines, men and women sit side by side on a marble slab, socializing as they do their business—and wiping with a shared sponge on a stick.
1739 A Parisian restaurant rolls out some of the first sex-segregated public toilets for a ball.
Rose Adams of the Ladies Sanitary Association urges London church authorities to create public restrooms for women. Such facilities, she writes, would “help a class who naturally find it difficult to ask for public consideration in this matter, while experiencing grievous suffering.”
To protect women and maintain “separate spheres,” Massachusetts mandates ladies’ rooms in the workplace. By 1920, 43 states require them.
Late 1800s
Jim Crow laws mandate “white only” and “colored only” bathrooms and drinking fountains in the South.
The French conceptual artist Marcel Duchamp submits a urinal on a pedestal for entry in an exhibition. The work is rejected. In 2002, a similar Duchamp urinal sells for nearly $1.2 million.
White women protest after President Franklin Roosevelt signs an executive order prohibiting racial discrimination in government jobs; they claim they might catch venereal diseases if forced to share toilets and towels with black women.
Police departments intensify a crackdown on gay sex in public bathrooms, publicizing the names of men who get caught.
Noting a flurry of sick notes excusing white girls from gym showers, a vice principal at Central High in Little Rock, Arkansas, concedes that the cause is “probably desegregation.”
CBS/Getty Images
CBS refuses to air the pilot for Leave It to Beaver—in which Wally and the Beav hide a mail-order alligator in the tank of the family toilet—until the episode is scrubbed of shots of the toilet bowl.
A top aide to President Lyndon Johnson is arrested for having oral sex with a man in a YMCA bathroom, resigning after word gets out. “I couldn’t have been more shocked,” Johnson says, “if I’d heard Lady Bird had tried to kill the pope.”
A black student at Tuskegee Institute in Alabama is shot and killed by a gas station attendant after trying to use the “whites only” bathroom. Thousands take to the streets in protest.
Pat Swinney/AP
Princeton University finally starts admitting female undergrads. Drastic measures are required at the university’s “co-ed” week.
Walter Zeboski/AP
California Assemblywoman March Fong smashes a commode with a sledgehammer on the steps of the state Capitol to protest pay toilets, which are unfair to women, she says, because men get to use urinals for free.
Opponents of the doomed Equal Rights Amendment spread fears that it will lead to coed bathrooms. “Do you want the sexes fully integrated like the races?” an opposition pamphlet asks.
Viewers hear TV’s very first toilet flush, courtesy of All in the Family‘s Archie Bunker.
In his opening monologue, Tonight Show host Johnny Carson, based on erroneous information, jokes about “an acute shortage of toilet paper.” His viewers go on a buying binge, resulting in an actual shortage.
The University of Massachusetts nixes coed bathrooms after parents complain about “the morality of things.” The Army does likewise after Stars and Stripes runs photos of American male and female troops in Europe grooming side by side.
NASA/Glenn Research Center
CBS News’ Diane Sawyer asks Sally Ride, America’s first female astronaut, to show off the new privacy curtain on the space shuttle’s vacuum toilet.
Health authorities assure a nervous public that people cannot catch AIDS from public toilet seats.
In a case dubbed “Pottygate” by reporters, Denise Wells, 33, stands trial in Texas for using a men’s room at a concert venue to avoid long lines at the women’s room. She is acquitted, but not before hundreds of women offer to pay her fine.
The Senate finally installs a ladies’ room on the legislative floor, but female House members won’t get their own bathroom until 2011.
Pottygate II? A man sues the city of San Diego for $5.4 million, claiming he felt “violated” when a group of women entered the men’s room at a rock concert while he was using the urinal. A judge rules his suit “frivolous.”
Gale Adler/FOX
The coed WC in the legal comedy Ally McBeal is “the most talked-about bathroom on TV,” writes USA Today. “I don’t think our clients are ready for that,” one real-life lawyer tells the Chicago Tribune. But the show ends up inspiring a slew of unisex bathrooms.
The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority spends $8,000 to turn a former porter’s closet into a bathroom for a transsexual employee.
A former employee is convicted for secretly recording video of women and girls on the toilet in a unisex bathroom at New Mexico’s Department of Transportation.
MPLS-St Paul Airport Police/ZUMA
Larry Craig, an Idaho senator with an anti-LGBT record, is arrested for allegedly soliciting sex in an airport men’s room. He pleads guilty to disorderly conduct but claims the whole thing was a misunderstanding: “I am not gay, I have never been gay.” He is allowed to finish his term but does not seek reelection.
Chinese women commandeer men’s bathrooms to protest long wait times in women’s facilities. Their movement is dubbed “Occupy Men’s Toilets.”
California passes a law that lets transgender students choose which school bathroom to use. GOP Assemblyman Tim Donnelly responds by pulling his 13-year-old son out of public school.
Steve Helber/AP
Gavin Grimm, a transgender boy at Virginia’s Gloucester High School, uses the boys’ room without incident until the school board cracks down. The ACLU sues on the boy’s behalf—”It is important to me to live life like other boys do,” Grimm says—but loses. Two years later, a federal appeals court sides with Grimm, kicking the case back to a lower court for a rehearing.
North Carolina passes a law restricting public-bathroom access to the sex listed on a person’s birth certificate. The legislation, a first, draws widespread condemnation. “There is absolutely no way to enforce this,” a Democratic state legislator tells Mother Jones. “It is an utterly ridiculous law.”
Celebrity gossip site TMZ reports that crew members for Transparent, an Amazon TV drama about a transgender dad, are “up in arms” over the set’s gender-neutral bathrooms. (Amazon refuses to comment.)
Lora Olive/ZUMA
After Donald Trump questions the need for the North Carolina law, his GOP rival pounces: “Donald said on television this morning that, gosh, men should be able to go into the girls’ bathroom if they want to,” Ted Cruz tells supporters. “Now let me ask you, have we gone stark raving nuts?”
North Carolina sues the Justice Department for alleged overreach following the department’s threat to strip the state of federal funding if it lets the law stand. The feds quickly countersue. “State-sanctioned discrimination never looks good in hindsight,” Attorney General Loretta Lynch says in a speech. “It was not so very long ago that states, including North Carolina, had signs above restrooms, water fountains, and on public accommodations keeping people out based upon a distinction without a difference. We have moved beyond those dark days, but not without pain and suffering…Let us write a different story this time.”
The Department of Education warns public schools across the country that they might lose federal funding if they block transgender kids from the bathroom of their choice. Twenty-three states later sue the Obama administration over this warning.
The NBA announces that it’s pulling the 2017 All-Star Game from Charlotte, North Carolina, in protest over the state’s bathroom law.
After a lower court gives Gavin Grimm, the transgender boy in Virginia, temporary permission to use the boys’ room at his school, the Supreme Court deals him another blow. The justices temporarily block him from the boys’ room while they decide whether to take up his case themselves.
A federal judge in Texas issues a preliminary, nationwide injunction allowing schools to ignore the Obama administration’s warning over federal funding and bathroom access.
2nd century B.C: In Rome’s public latrines, men and women sit side by side on a marble slab, socializing as they do their business—and wiping with a shared sponge on a stick.
1739: A Parisian restaurant rolls out some of the first sex-segregated public toilets for a ball.
1878: Rose Adams of the Ladies Sanitary Association urges London church authorities to create public restrooms for women. Such facilities, she writes, would “help a class who naturally find it difficult to ask for public consideration in this matter, while experiencing grievous suffering.”
1887: To protect women and maintain “separate spheres,” Massachusetts mandates ladies’ rooms in the workplace. By 1920, 43 states require them.
Late 1800s: Jim Crow laws mandate “white only” and “colored only” bathrooms and drinking fountains in the South.
1917: The French conceptual artist Marcel Duchamp submits a urinal on a pedestal for entry in an exhibition. The work is rejected. In 2002, a similar Duchamp urinal sells for nearly $1.2 million.
1941: White women protest after President Franklin Roosevelt signs an executive order prohibiting racial discrimination in government jobs; they claim they might catch venereal diseases if forced to share toilets and towels with black women.
Post-WWII: Police departments intensify a crackdown on gay sex in public bathrooms, publicizing the names of men who get caught.
1954: Noting a flurry of sick notes excusing white girls from gym showers, a vice principal at Central High in Little Rock, Arkansas, concedes that the cause is “probably desegregation.”
1957: CBS refuses to air the pilot for Leave It to Beaver—in which Wally and the Beav hide a mail-order alligator in the tank of the family toilet—until the episode is scrubbed of shots of the toilet bowl.
1964: A top aide to President Lyndon Johnson is arrested for having oral sex with a man in a YMCA bathroom, resigning after word gets out. “I couldn’t have been more shocked,” Johnson says, “if I’d heard Lady Bird had tried to kill the pope.”
1966: A black student at Tuskegee Institute in Alabama is shot and killed by a gas station attendant after trying to use the “whites only” bathroom. Thousands take to the streets in protest.
1969: Princeton University finally starts admitting female undergrads. Drastic measures are required at the university’s “co-ed” week.
1969: California Assemblywoman March Fong smashes a commode with a sledgehammer on the steps of the state Capitol to protest pay toilets, which are unfair to women, she says, because men get to use urinals for free.
1970s: Opponents of the doomed Equal Rights Amendment spread fears that it will lead to coed bathrooms. “Do you want the sexes fully integrated like the races?” an opposition pamphlet asks.
1973: Viewers hear TV’s very first toilet flush, courtesy of All in the Family‘s Archie Bunker.
1973: In his opening monologue, Tonight Show host Johnny Carson, based on erroneous information, jokes about “an acute shortage of toilet paper.” His viewers go on a buying binge, resulting in an actual shortage.
1981: The University of Massachusetts nixes coed bathrooms after parents complain about “the morality of things.” The Army does likewise after Stars and Stripes runs photos of American male and female troops in Europe grooming side by side.
1983: CBS News’ Diane Sawyer asks Sally Ride, America’s first female astronaut, to show off the new privacy curtain on the space shuttle’s vacuum toilet.
1986: Health authorities assure a nervous public that people cannot catch AIDS from public toilet seats.
1990: In a case dubbed “Pottygate” by reporters, Denise Wells, 33, stands trial in Texas for using a men’s room at a concert venue to avoid long lines at the women’s room. She is acquitted, but not before hundreds of women offer to pay her fine.
1993: The Senate finally installs a ladies’ room on the legislative floor, but female House members won’t get their own bathroom until 2011.
1996: Pottygate II? A man sues the city of San Diego for $5.4 million, claiming he felt “violated” when a group of women entered the men’s room at a rock concert while he was using the urinal. A judge rules his suit “frivolous.”
1998: The coed WC in the legal comedy Ally McBeal is “the most talked-about bathroom on TV,” writes USA Today. “I don’t think our clients are ready for that,” one real-life lawyer tells the Chicago Tribune. But the show ends up inspiring a slew of unisex bathrooms.
2000: The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority spends $8,000 to turn a former porter’s closet into a bathroom for a transsexual employee.
2006: A former employee is convicted for secretly recording video of women and girls on the toilet in a unisex bathroom at New Mexico’s Department of Transportation.
2007: Larry Craig, an Idaho senator with an anti-LGBT record, is arrested for allegedly soliciting sex in an airport men’s room. He pleads guilty to disorderly conduct but claims the whole thing was a misunderstanding: “I am not gay, I have never been gay.” He is allowed to finish his term but does not seek reelection.
2012: Chinese women commandeer men’s bathrooms to protest long wait times in women’s facilities. Their movement is dubbed “Occupy Men’s Toilets.”
2013: California passes a law that lets transgender students choose which school bathroom to use. GOP Assemblyman Tim Donnelly responds by pulling his 13-year-old son out of public school.
2014: Gavin Grimm, a transgender boy at Virginia’s Gloucester High School, uses the boys’ room without incident until the school board cracks down. The ACLU sues on the boy’s behalf—”It is important to me to live life like other boys do,” Grimm says—but loses. Two years later, a federal appeals court sides with Grimm, kicking the case back to a lower court for a rehearing.
March 2016: North Carolina passes a law restricting public-bathroom access to the sex listed on a person’s birth certificate. The legislation, a first, draws widespread condemnation. “There is absolutely no way to enforce this,” a Democratic state legislator tells Mother Jones. “It is an utterly ridiculous law.”
April 2016: Celebrity gossip site TMZ reports that crew members for Transparent, an Amazon TV drama about a transgender dad, are “up in arms” over the set’s gender-neutral bathrooms. (Amazon refuses to comment.)
April 2016: After Donald Trump questions the need for the North Carolina law, his GOP rival pounces: “Donald said on television this morning that, gosh, men should be able to go into the girls’ bathroom if they want to,” Ted Cruz tells supporters. “Now let me ask you, have we gone stark raving nuts?”
May 2016: North Carolina sues the Justice Department for alleged overreach following the department’s threat to strip the state of federal funding if it lets the law stand. The feds quickly countersue. “State-sanctioned discrimination never looks good in hindsight,” Attorney General Loretta Lynch says in a speech. “It was not so very long ago that states, including North Carolina, had signs above restrooms, water fountains, and on public accommodations keeping people out based upon a distinction without a difference. We have moved beyond those dark days, but not without pain and suffering…Let us write a different story this time.”
May 2016: The Department of Education warns public schools across the country that they might lose federal funding if they block transgender kids from the bathroom of their choice. Twenty-three states later sue the Obama administration over this warning.
July 2016: The NBA announces that it’s pulling the 2017 All-Star Game from Charlotte, North Carolina, in protest over the state’s bathroom law.
August 2016: After a lower court gives Gavin Grimm, the transgender boy in Virginia, temporary permission to use the boys’ room at his school, the Supreme Court deals him another blow. The justices temporarily block him from the boys’ room while they decide whether to take up his case themselves.
August 2016: A federal judge in Texas issues a preliminary nationwide injunction allowing schools to ignore the Obama administration’s warning over federal funding and bathroom access.
We Tracked Down the Lawyers Behind the Recent Wave of Anti-Trans Bathroom Bills
I’m a Transgender Man in North Carolina. Here’s What the Bathroom Law Means for Me.
We Asked Cops How They Plan to Enforce North Carolina’s Bathroom Law
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After a Terrible Week, Trump Is Promoting One of His Golf Courses on Twitter
Maybe this is his version of the Green New Deal.
Dave Gilson
Senior EditorBio | Follow
President Donald Trump at his golf course in Turnberry, Scotland, in July 2018Andrew Milligan/Zuma
President Donald Trump was up bright and early Saturday morning, tweeting about one of his golf courses in Scotland:
Very proud of perhaps the greatest golf course anywhere in the world. Also, furthers U.K. relationship! https://t.co/3xTzzJH6Iq
Perhaps after a punishing week, in which his former lawyer accused him of lying and several crimes and in which he credulously defended North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un after their summit imploded, the president just wanted to think of his favorite (and only) form of mild exercise.
Or maybe the president—who has never severed his financial ties to his businesses—is upset about this spot of bad news affecting his money-losing Scottish resorts:
Donald Trump’s Aberdeenshire golf resort must pay the Scottish government’s legal costs following a court battle over a major North Sea wind power development.
Mr Trump battled unsuccessfully in the courts to halt the project before he became US president.
A total of 11 turbines make up the development off Aberdeen.
Judges have now ruled Trump International Golf Club Scotland Ltd should pay the legal bills incurred.
As his former fixer Michael Cohen testified this week, “Donald Trump is a man who ran for office to make his brand great, not to make our country great…Mr. Trump would often say, this campaign was going to be the ‘greatest infomercial in political history.'” That infomercial is still running.
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Clarifai raises $30M to give developers visual search capabilities
Matthew Lynley @mattlynley / 4 years
Matt Zeiler grew up in a Canadian farming community — but fast forward a few decades and he’s now running a startup that’s looking to bring the same kinds of visual search tools that Pinterest and Google have to other companies and developers.
That company is Clarifai, a New York-based startup that offers developers the ability to tag metadata to photos in such a way that the company algorithmically learns what kinds of objects are in photos. With that, Clarifai developers can train algorithms to be able to search for those objects, or input their own photos in order to find similar objects. The company said today that it has raised $30 million. The round was led by Menlo Ventures, with Union Square Ventures, Lux Capital and others participating. In total. Clarifai has $41.25 million in financing.
While Google, Pinterest and other companies build visual search technology, Clarifai is looking to do the same but focus on giving third-party applications and developers access to that kind of technology. Zeiler says Clarifai only needs a few images’ worth of data to start building out a model for determining what kinds of objects are in an image. Developers can teach algorithms with their own kinds of tagging to build new classes of “objects” within those images and videos.
“Our number one entry point into our customer is a developer,” Zeiler said. “Think of Twilio, they were very much developer first and API platform company for communications. We are the same thing for AI, we like to going to meet-ups and hosting events at our office, going to hackathons. We want to get every developer talking about and using Clarifai, building their next app on Clarifai, so one day someone is building the next Snapchat in their garage and we want to grow wit their growth.”
Clarifai makes its tools available in the form of APIs that start off as easy-to-implement lines of code — geared even toward first-time developers or programmers, in the same fashion that Twilio does — to more in-depth tools that allow greater levels of customization. If it were able to tap into the same developer zeitgeist that Twilio has, there may be a similar path to a strong business in the same way Twilio built.
For now, Clarifai focuses on and continues to work on image and video search capabilities. But the ability to build an understanding of data structures could theoretically extend to other mediums. Zeiler wouldn’t say what other kinds of tools that Clarifai is working on, but it’s pretty easy to guess where it could extend, to things like audio and text.
Clarifai’s goal is to essentially give the same tools that the Googles and Pinterests have, and point them downstream to developers and other companies like retailers. For example, Walmart might want to use something like this, or Macy’s, but in working with a company like Google those retailers could end up giving retail data to competitors. They then may end up giving those companies a way to build something competitive.
“We view the big guys as our main competition now, there’s a few entrants now, we’re not hearing as much about other startups in the space,” Zeiler said. “A lot of startups continue to get acquired, that’s great for us, we celebrate that internally because I wanted to build the independent AI company. There needs to be one. They have to trust us with their data and a lot of companies don’t trust Google, Microsoft, other big guys with their data because they know they’re gonna learn from it and turn around and build a competing product.”
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The VIP Experience
The Alliance Mastermind
The Boardroom Mastermind
Genius Exchange
About Gail Doby
About Erin Weir
The 4000 Percent Solution
Creative Genius Podcast
Season Two Episode Four
Does your interior design business seem stuck in a rut? Are you dissatisfied with the amount you’re earning for the number of hours you’re working? Then it’s time to get the help you need to turn your business around.
In today’s podcast, Gail and Erin talk with Amy Leferink, owner and principal designer with Interior Impressions in Woodbury, Minnesota. Some years ago Amy signed up for a VIP Experience with Gail and has been a regular client ever since. She is a member of the Gail Doby Coaching & Consulting Boardroom Group 3. Amy credits Gail for helping her to make her business a success.
Having made a major life change to start her own interior design business, Amy was feeling frustrated and overwhelmed at how poorly it was going. She was struggling to get by. After talking with a designer friend who had worked with Gail, she decided to invest in a VIP session. When Gail asked her to put her numbers up on a whiteboard for them to review, she was shocked to find that after years of working 50 to 60 hours a week, she was earning just 1 percent in profit! She was eager for whatever help Gail could give her.
Fast forward to about three years later, and now it’s a completely different story. When Gail checked in with Amy to see how her business was doing, Amy was shocked again—but this time in a good way, because her business had grown by 4000 percent! At first, she couldn’t believe it, but the figures were correct.
Now, says Amy, “I am 100 percent debt-free, in my business and my personal finances. I have more money in the bank right now than I’ve ever had in my life. I feel so much more secure . . . not having to worry all the time, just knowing we’re in a really good place and that we’re going to keep growing and getting stronger.”
Erin asked Amy what are some life lessons that she’s garnered along the way that she would share with other designers. Amy offered these three:
Enlist the help of others. Don’t try to do everything on your own.
Take time for self-care.
Appreciate experiences over things. Be grateful for what you have rather than concerned about what you don’t have.
To hear more from Gail and Amy about overcoming challenges, getting control of your business, and having a vision for the future, listen to the full podcast.
Mentioned in This Podcast
Toward the end of the podcast, Amy mentions a book that Gail recommended to her, The Miracle Morning, by Hal Elrod. You can find out more about the book as well as other Miracle Morning books, listen to the author’s podcast, and more at MiracleMorning.com.
Amy also mentioned that she recently read the best-selling novel, Where the Crawdads Sing, by Delia Owens, which is widely available in print and ebook at bookstores and online.
4100 Albion St., Suite 1605
© 2021 Gail Doby Coaching & Consulting. All rights reserved.
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The best Samsung Galaxy S21 and S21 Ultra deals so far
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Jabra Elite 85t review: Wireless earbuds with powerful noise cancelation
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Canceled TV
Has Katy Keene been cancelled or renewed for season 2?
The CW finally decides on the fate of the series over a month after its season 1 finale
by Christian Saclao May 17, 2020, 10:26 pm
SubscribePinterest
Update (July 2nd, 2020): The CW has cancelled Katy Keene after one season, making it the network’s only cancellation in the 2019-2020 TV season. The Lucy Hale-led series was ultimately axed after it failed to perform well both on the linear network with delayed viewing and on The CW’s digital platforms.
Original story (May 17th, 2020): Katy Keene ended its first-season run last Thursday and it looks like fans of the musical dramedy have to wait until next month to find out whether The CW series will be cancelled or renewed for season 2.
Since the show’s linear ratings were not as impressive as the figures of other The CW series, network president Mark Pedowitz said that the future of Katy Keene now largely relies on whether or not it will find a large audience on streaming platforms. The complete 13-episode Season 1 of the Lucy Hale-led series is now available to stream for free on The CW app. It is also set to make its HBO Max debut on the streamer’s May 27th launch date.
“We are incredibly pleased with the creative [direction] of this show,” Pedowitz said of Katy Keene last May 14th. “The producers and the talented cast have done a terrific job. The linear ratings have been soft, but we have seen some good streaming viewership. We’ve gone to the studio and the producers and we’re extending the option of when we can pick it up so we could see how it’s performing once the full season is up. And also we are counting on that it will appear alongside the launch of HBO Max, and we’re hoping that that, too, will help it. And we’ll make a decision in a few weeks after that. We believe that the show will work streaming-wise. We’d like to see it perform a little bit better, but we have no creative issues on the show.”
READ Has Cobra Kai been canceled or renewed for Season 3 and 4?
Original The CW series like Riverdale, Jane the Virgin, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend, and All American have all drawn huge numbers of viewers on streaming platforms following their initial runs on the network, so it makes sense that The CW is waiting to see how Katy Keene will perform on HBO Max before ultimately deciding on its future.
Should Katy Keene get renewed for a second season, a crossover between it and its parent series, Riverdale, may finally happen. The freshman run of Katy Keen is set five years after the events of Riverdale, but with reports confirming that the flagship series is having a significant time jump in its upcoming season 5, a crossover between the two shows is not far from becoming a reality.
Based on Archie Comics characters, Katy Keene follows the professional and romantic lives of four aspiring artists, including fashion legend-to-be Katy Keene (Hale) and singer-songwriter Josie McCoy (Ashleigh Murray). Also starring Katherine LaNasa as Gloria Grandbilt, Julia Chan as Pepper Smith, and Jonny Beauchamp as Jorge / Ginger Lopez, Katy Keene season 1 averaged a 0.12 rating in the 18-49 demo and 480,000 viewers.
Sources: ComicBook.com, TV Series Finale, The Hollywood Reporter
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Has Stargirl been cancelled or renewed for season 2?
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Taco Bell is bringing back potatoes to its menu but fans have more demands
Mattel unveils Maya Angelou Barbie doll ahead of Black History Month
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How John Deere brought the farming experience to CES using VR
©2020 CIRBS LLC
Choice & Consent
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Joe Biden to unveil 1.9 trillion dollar coronavirus plan
World NewsPublished: Jan 14, 2021 Last Updated: Jan 14, 2021
The future president is aiming for the US to administer 100 million vaccines by the 100th day of his administration.
President-elect Joe Biden is to unveil a 1.9 trillion dollar coronavirus plan in a bid to turn the tide on the pandemic.
He wants to speed up the vaccine rollout and provide more financial help to individuals, states and local governments and businesses struggling with the prolonged economic fallout.
Called the American Rescue Plan, the legislative proposal would meet Mr Biden’s goal of administering 100 million vaccines by the 100th day of his administration, while advancing his objective of reopening most schools by spring.
On a parallel track, it would deliver another round of aid to stabilise the economy while the public health effort seeks the upper hand on the pandemic, said aides who described the plan ahead of a speech by Mr Biden on Thursday evening.
It includes 1,400 dollar cheques for most Americans, which on top of 600 dollars provided in the most recent Covid-19 Bill would bring the total to the 2,000 dollars that Mr Biden has called for.
President-elect Joe Bidenhas vowed to invest billions in vaccine rollout (Susan Walsh/AP)
And it shoehorns in the long-term Democratic policy aim of increasing the minimum wage to 15 dollars an hour and expanding paid leave for workers across the economy.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York has said Mr Biden’s proposal will be his first order of business this year.
The emergency legislation would be paid for with borrowed money, adding to trillions in debt the government has already incurred to confront the pandemic.
Aides said Mr Biden will make the case that the additional spending and borrowing is necessary to prevent the economy from sliding into an even deeper hole.
Interest rates are low, making debt more manageable.
Mr Biden has long held that economic recovery is inextricably linked with controlling the coronavirus. “Our work begins with getting Covid under control,” he declared in his victory speech. “We cannot repair the economy, restore our vitality or relish life’s most precious moments.”
The plan comes as a divided nation is in the grip of the pandemic’s most dangerous wave yet.
So far, more than 385,000 people have died of Covid-19 in the US. And government numbers on Thursday reported a jump in weekly unemployment claims, to 965,000, a sign that rising infections are forcing businesses to cut back and lay off workers.
Under Mr Biden’s multi-pronged strategy, about 400 billion dollars would go directly to combating the pandemic while the rest is focused on economic relief and aid to states and localities.
About 20 billion dollars would be allocated for a more disciplined focus on vaccination, on top of some 8 billion dollars already approved by Congress. Mr Biden has called for setting up mass vaccination centres and sending mobile units to hard-to-reach areas.
The plan provides 50 billion dollars to expand testing, which is seen as key to reopening most schools by the end of the new administration’s first 100 days. About 130 billion dollars would be allocated to help schools reopen without risking further contagion.
The plan would fund the hiring of 100,000 public health workers, to focus on encouraging people to get vaccinated and on tracing the contacts of those infected with the coronavirus.
There is also a proposal to boost investment in genetic sequencing, to help track new virus strains including the more contagious variants identified in the UK and South Africa.
Throughout the plan, there is a focus on ensuring that minority communities that have borne the brunt of the pandemic are not short-changed on vaccines and treatments, aides said.
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Trump Appointees Pressure Census for Report on Undocumented
Fresno Homeless Efforts Lack 'Clear Strategic Plan' says Grand Jury
CFP Semifinal Moved From Rose Bowl to AT&T Stadium in Texas
Poll Confirms Californians’ Sour Mood on Higher Taxes
Biden to Nominate Yellen, Highlight Diversity on Econ Team
Donald Trump "lost the election and he was put into office because the Russians interfered on his behalf," Jimmy Carter said. (AP File)
Russia Made Trump an ‘Illegitimate’ President, Jimmy Carter Says
ATLANTA — Former President Jimmy Carter said Friday he believes President Donald Trump actually lost the 2016 election and is president only because of Russian interference.
“There is no doubt that the Russians did interfere in the election. And I think the interference, though not yet quantified, if fully investigated would show that Trump didn’t actually win the election in 2016.” — Jimmy Carter
Carter made the comments during a discussion on human rights at a resort in Leesburg, Virginia, without offering any evidence for his statements.
“There is no doubt that the Russians did interfere in the election,” Carter said. “And I think the interference, though not yet quantified, if fully investigated would show that Trump didn’t actually win the election in 2016. He lost the election and he was put into office because the Russians interfered on his behalf.”
The U.S. intelligence community asserted in a 2017 report that Russia had worked to help Trump during the election and to undermine the candidacy of Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton.
Mueller Report Didn’t Establish Conspiracy
But the intelligence agencies did not assess whether that interference had affected the election or contributed to Trump’s victory, and no evidence has emerged that votes were changed improperly.
Deanna Congileo, a spokeswoman for the Atlanta-based Carter Center, declined a request Friday to speak to Carter for further explanation.
Special counsel Robert Mueller’s report identified two criminal schemes by Russia to interfere in the election: the hacking of Democratic email accounts and a social media campaign to spread disinformation online and sway public opinion.
But Mueller’s report did not establish that Russia conspired with any Trump associates in those efforts.
Carter’s comments came during a panel discussion at a retreat for donors to the Carter Center, an organization he founded in 1982 that has been at the forefront of election monitoring efforts around the globe for decades.
Panel moderator and historian Jon Meacham asked Carter if he believed Trump was “an illegitimate president.”
Carter replied: “Based on what I just said, which I can’t retract, I’d say yes.”
Donald TrumpJimmy CarterMueller ReportRussia
Democrats Must Address the Roots of Our Asylum Crisis — or Give Trump the Advantage
Video: All You Need to Know About State Budget in 2 Minutes
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Hot Chix with Swordz
Posted on November 28, 2006 by gooberzilla
In flagrant defiance of all evidence to the contrary, Ultraviolet is the Greatest Movie EVER.
4 Minutes, 37 Seconds In:
Nick Chinlund as Daxus. I love this guy.
Cameron Bright as Six. Not quite so loveable.
CLOSING THOUGHT!
Come on, Katherine, the movie wasn’t THAT bad…
Wait…what?
Filed under: Greatest Movie EVER, Sci Fi, Vampires |
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Daryl Surat, on November 30, 2006 at 11:33 am said:
All right, that does it. This is getting out of hand. Listen and listen well: even Uwe Boll movies have more entertainment value than this film. I cannot bring myself to purchase Ultraviolet for even $3, and I say this as a person who owns the 3-disc set of Windtalkers and the Criterion editions of Armageddon as well as The Rock. Plus both Bad Boys movies. And I bought all of those new, for God’s sake.
At any given moment, another piece inside of me can die. The sign of that will be when I own Ultraviolet Unrated Edition and view it as a postmodern comedy masterpiece. Pray that I never make a day out of watching Ultraviolet and Aeon Flux back to back. Of course, this very thing may now happen within the next few days.
Perhaps what stops me is the knowledge that even the Unrated Edition is still not the director’s original 120 minute cut. Yeah, that part in the middle where nothing happens for 45 minutes? There’s 30 more minutes of colossally lame Photoshop/CGI effects applied to EVERYTHING including faces (as in, low-res pixelated Playstation 1 cutscene; http://tinyurl.com/uvhl5 explains why that is) and piss-poor close-up/fast-cutting cinematography so that you can’t actually SEE the fights lying around somewhere.
Hey guys: I understand you’re generic thugs meant to be fodder, but you have GUNS which fire BULLETS. Try at least SHOOTING them at the person armed with a sword instead of just running up to within sword stabbing distance. I have no objection to seeing one person slaughter armies singlehandedly, but at least make it seem like the people know how to use the weapons they’re holding. Especially if they’re yakuza on a rooftop.
Dear Hollywood: stop making PG-13 action movies. This is a movie with people dressed in all white that get into swordfights AND THERE’S NO BLOOD. Also: Milla Jovovich is not attractive. Therefore, she has no redeeming qualities whatsoever. Stop putting her in movies.
I eagerly look forward to hearing future GME podcasts talking about how Robocop 3, The Next Karate Kid, or Highlander: Endgame is somehow the Greatest Movie EVER. By my calculations, one third of the Greatest/Worst Movie EVER assessments are in fact, completely wrong and thus, you probably agree with at least one of those statements.
Gooberzilla, on November 30, 2006 at 4:52 pm said:
I love you, too, Daryl.
I must admit, the majority of my pleasure in watching this film came from watching Katherine squirm. And I love this film in the same way you love an ugly puppy; with heavy doses of pity and disappointment mixed in.
Perhaps I should have put the term Greatest in quotation marks? I.e. the “Greatest” Movie EVER.
I do agree that Highlander: Endgame is, in fact, the Greatest Movie EVER. But then again, I also think that Highlander II: Renegade Version is the Greatest Movie EVER. How is this possible, you may wonder? I am a paradox, a riddle in an enigma wrapped in a quandry shot through the event horizon of a singularity into Unknown Space, where Azathoth dwells.
I do agree about the PG-13 action movies, although I think PG-13 horror movies are an even more odious thing that Hollywood has foisted upon us.
aaron, on December 1, 2006 at 4:17 am said:
For true vampires one must watch Vampire In Brooklyn. Screw those hemophages! I haven’t seen Ultraviolet but I do have a soft spot for Milla Jovovich. So maybe one of these days.
Jeff Tatarek, on December 2, 2006 at 5:45 am said:
Did the April Fools’ episode get released early..? I can’t imagine that a film as weak as this would be found in the company of Commando!
Keith, on December 4, 2006 at 2:50 pm said:
Yeah, I can’t…I’m gonna have to call shenanigans on this one, too, and I actively campaign for the glory of GYMKATA (which, after Amazon and Warner had their contest that lets the public pick which title from the vaults gets released, is finally coming to DVD). ULTRAVIOLET just defeated me, though, possibly because I kept hearing how it was nonstop action, but instead of nonstop action, it was nonstop “show a hundred bad guys, then show Milla standing in front of them. Cut to other side of a door with some battle sound effects, then have the door open and show Milla walking in.”
Of course, you can make everything right again by championing GYMKATA. Or Sho Kosugi’s “Ninja-size” work-out video, featuring Sho Kosugi and His Ninjettes.
And Daryl — Highlander: Endgame? Please. Now The Quickening? THAT might be the greatest movie ever.
Gooberzilla, on December 4, 2006 at 6:19 pm said:
Gymkata is undeniably the Greatest Movie EVER. Ditto, anything involving Sho Kosugi.
When I found out Gymkata was coming to DVD, I think I exploded with sheer exuberance. I’ve been picking bits of bone and hair-follices out my keyboard ever since.
James Leung Man-Fai, on December 5, 2006 at 12:46 pm said:
You laugh, but some modern bullet proof vest/body armor have ceramic plates in them.
They deflect and break upon impact which prevents penetration. Many of the military issued body armor in Iraq are augmented with ceramic plates.
I think the difference between Ultraviolet ceramic body armor and real ceramic body armor, is that the real body armor is somehow designed to also stop the bullet.
But none of this matters, since a thousand guys with guns are powerless against one person with a sword.
Now, when Violet has to fight Ogami Ito…
I have to agree with Keith on this one, since the use of ceramic armor in the movie is a stylistic choice, not a realistic one. The only reason the guards wear gas-masks and glass armor is so that jets of vapor and shards of shattered ceramic can replace gouts of blood. As Daryl mentioned, it’s all about the PG-13 rating.
Honestly, I think it’s a rather creative and cinematographically interesting way of including all the violence without including the consequences of the violence. But it’s also kind of silly when you view it from an objective viewpoint.
I can’t wait until that little kid grows up and becomes Wil Wheaton.
Julian Perez, on December 11, 2006 at 3:05 pm said:
I don’t know. I liked ULTRAVIOLET in a mindless guilty pleasure sort of way.
But is it TRULY worthy of being called “Greatest Movie Ever?”
By that same note: Paul, please, please, please don’t do GUNHED. I (kinda-sorta) liked that movie…but is that tepid, repetitive, confusing film REALLY worthy of being called “Greatest Movie Ever?” I mean, we live in a universe where INFRA-MAN and BATMAN: THE MOVIE exist. Why vaporize electrons?
Incidentally, I anticipate that 20-30 years from now, the movie star working today that people will remember the most will be “Mila Jovovich.” Mila is a female that does action films EXCLUSIVELY, as her niche. For someone like that, we have to look back to Pam Grier in the seventies for movies like ARENA, COFFY, and SCREAM, BLACULA, SCREAM.
I will admit, the fights were fast and exciting, and Mila is a beautiful, graceful woman, and a motorcycle driving on the side of a building is something I have never seen before, and this movie has more quotable, swaggeringly macho lines than Pat Swayze in ROAD HOUSE…but still.
“Greatest Movie Ever?”
Are you mental?
Gooberzilla, on December 11, 2006 at 6:20 pm said:
Julian, for blaspheming Gunhed, you are officially “b4nn3d 4 life”. ;-p
Ford Prefect, on February 5, 2008 at 5:49 pm said:
This is positively the worst $9 I ever spent on a movie. I was REALLY looking forward to it, being that Equilibrium is one of my all time favourite movies. The thick film of CG the is pasted over the entire movie happily distracts you from MIlla’s horrible ability to act, the plot that is 1 paragraph long, and the action sequences that were choreographed by a 12 year old. Kurt Wimmer was given way to much money and decided it would be a good idea to coat the celluloid in CG vaseline, he did so much better with soooo much less. And I disagree with Daryl, Uwe Boll is still much much much much much much worse.
Kimichi Tsuzuku, on November 9, 2008 at 3:22 am said:
Ultraviolet actually spawned an anime
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/encyclopedia/anime.php?id=9705
Not even my favorite male seiyuu Seki Tomokazu motivates me to watch it. Now, if I could inflict it on say, Daryl Surat, Clockwork Orange style…
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What to say to online dating
A Definitive History of Princess Beatrice and Edoardo Mapelli Mozzi’s Relationship
November 25, 2015DatingComments: 0
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OUR DATING/ ENGAGEMENT STORY!
I gave the ring back on a warm night in November. My boyfriend and I had just returned from a weekend of camping with friends. I wanted to hate him for those words, but the truth was, he was right. My interest in another man had been unrequited, and in the absence of hope, I let my feet wander and gave myself to someone I sinfully considered second best. After I recognized my selfishness, I gave his engagement ring back. For months, I carried shame about my failure, especially as we continued our relationship and I tried to sort out my heart. He was an honorable man from a wonderful family, but by February, I knew a wedding was not in our future.
Over the course of just a couple of weeks, Joshua Brown and Yok Saeoue fell in love, moved in together, and knew they’d spend their lives together. That is, once they met in person. Now, after years of crossing oceans to be together and a seemingly never-ending pandemic forcing physical distance between them, they’re forced to postpone their plans to wed in an intimate ceremony until they can see each other again.
Josh and Yok first met in late on female-first dating app Bumble.
An engaged couple living in Ottawa, Canada, and outside of Bangkok, lows of virtual dating to all the exes sliding into your DMs: Love in the Time of “The first time he messaged me back, I think I ignored him,” Yok tells me.
On Christmas Eve weekend , Miley Cyrus and Liam Hemsworth somehow managed to pull off what many might think impossible for a celebrity couple: a low-key wedding away from the prying eyes of the public at their home in Tennessee. The bride wore Vivienne Westwood, and the party looked like an excellent time based on the Instagram posts from the couple’s friends and family. Unfortunately, it didn’t last: The two announced their separation in August.
It’s been a long and winding road for the couple over the past 10 years: Prior to their separation in August was one big breakup, plenty of gossip for the couple to navigate, and some truly tough moments, like the destruction of the couple’s Malibu home in the recent California wildfires. Cyrus, at the time a major Disney star on Hannah Montana , and Hemsworth, a then relatively unknown Australian actor, are both cast in the film adaptation of the Nicholas Sparks novel The Last Song and start dating during the shoot.
They’re even spotted “full-on making out,” according to People , as they say goodbye at the Nashville airport after shooting wraps. The pair makes their red-carpet debut together looking all sorts of lovey-dovey at The Last Song premiere in March. They also pose for a very couple-y photo shoot for Teen Vogue as part of the movie’s promotion.
I’m sick of quadruple threats,” Cyrus tells the magazine. They allegedly break up for about a month in August of that year but are back together by September. It’s a big career year for both Cyrus and Hemsworth: Her final episode of Hannah Montana airs, and he begins shooting the first of the Hunger Games movies, in which he stars as Gale. They’ve not yet become totally press-shy as a couple at this point: The two step out together and are photographed at big events.
Lahren, 27, and Fricke, 30, announced they were engaged in June last year, with Lahren showing off her glittering pear-shaped ring with a diamond encrusted band. But DailyMail. It’s understood the decision to end the engagement was mutual and the pair – both fervent conservative pro-Trump supporters – remain firm friends. But those close to Lahren say the controversial Fox News star wasn’t ready to settle down and after discussing her feelings with Brandon they decided to call it a day.
But DailyMailTV has learned the pair called it off in mid-February after dating for two-and-a-half years. Fricke is running for Congress as an Independent in California’s 33rd district – which includes Beverly Hills – in and released his financial report in November.
Blair and Louis First Met Belles de Jour Started Dating Dated briefly in Belles de back to New York in Shattered Bass to throw Blair and Louis an engagement.
Update as of June Harry and Francesca have decided to end their relationship. In a YouTube video, Francesca revealed that Harry broke up with her, as he no longer wanted to date long-distance. Below, read our initial coverage of their love story. Too Hot to Handle , a new dating show on Netflix, challenges couples to get to know each other—without hooking up. Of all the show’s contestants , year-old Harry Jowsey and year-old Francesca Farago have the hardest time obeying the rules.
In fact, Too Hot to Handle might as well be called The Harry and Francesca Show , considering how much screen time is devoted to the couple’s antics. As it turns out, all that drama was building toward something: Harry and Francesca are still together, a year after the show wrapped filming in April According to Harry, their relationship has changed since their time on Too Hot to Handle.
So, wholesome, in fact, that he proposed to her Of course she said yes, though she’s expecting a proposal IRL. I love you so much and I can’t wait to spend forever with you Do you wanna do this thing? Do you want to get married?
Looking for marriage education in Colorado? He pursues this passion by helping couples at all stages and seasons of their relationship through private couples counseling and group education. Engage in one or more of the following experiences to get the best out of your romantic relationship:. Before making a lasting commitment, obtaining couples counseling can help each partner feel more secure and confident as they consider engagement.
Check out our met engaged married selection for the very best in unique or custom, handmade pieces from our gifts for the couple shops.
They date, marry, and eventually divorce. Louis eventually goes to find her, and the two become engaged. At one point, Blair plans to leave Louis but ultimately doesn’t. They marry, but their wedding is interrupted by a video of Blair’s confession of love to Chuck, and Louis makes sure Blair knows he only married her to save face and behind the scenes, they have no relationship.
Louis introduces himself to her and tells her he’s noticed her before and thinks she’s beautiful. He asks her on a date, and she accepts. Before he leaves, a chauffeur tells him he’s taking him to the embassy to meet with a Grimaldi.
Latest family articles and help. Weekly CBN. Dating with Pure Passion. The barrage of questions surprised me because I had no reservations about giving her my heart. In my mind, I would have been a fool not to marry Ashley. Yet so many people questioned my composure that I began to worry whether something was wrong with me.
Here’s what happened since they got engaged after three months of dating and later called it off. Caroline Flack announced her engagement with a loved-up.
But now, Eugenie’s sister Princess Beatrice is celebrating a royal wedding of her own. In September of last year, Prince Andrew’s daughter confirmed that she was engaged to Edo, and as Beatrice’s husband-to-be, he slowly entered the royals’ orbit in an official capacity, making his debut at the family’s Christmas Day walk to church and more. But that didn’t happen overnight—Beatrice has been reportedly dating Edo for some time.
Here’s everything we know about their relationship. While British tabloid the Sun claims the pair only met in September of , People reports the couple has known each other for a while now. Mozzi’s step-father Christopher Shale, who passed away suddenly at the Glastonbury music festival in , was close friends with Beatrice’s parents, Prince Andrew and Sarah Ferguson.
In fact, Beatrice attended Shale’s funeral alongside her parents more than seven years ago. Perhaps Beatrice and Edo were reacquainted two years ago. They hit it off instantly and have a real laugh together.
It was the shock that shook the nation. Most viewers believed that the woman was most certainly a catfish, even a private investigator that Murphey hired told him that Lana had to be a scammer. But everyone who doubted Lana and Murphey was wrong.
After I recognized my selfishness, I gave his engagement ring back. then we progressed to a first date, then dating, then engagement and.
We have a couple of kids, whom I love like crazy. My ex-wife is a good woman whom I never meant any harm. I just kept not acting right, and she finally threw me out. She still loved me, though, and except for a little while right after our break-up, we never really stopped being what I guess you’d call friends. And I think she might want me back, too.
Nothing too obvious or anything, but I can sometimes see in her eyes a little of that spark she used to feel whenever she looked at me. The reason my getting back together with her is a problem is that last month she got engaged to one of my best friends. Before my ex and him started dating, he asked me if I was cool with it. I said that I was, and I meant it. At that point I felt there was no hope for me and her anyway. If she had a chance at happiness with him, then I wanted that for her.
And I have to admit they’re good together. We’re all on the same bowling team, for one. And I know my kids like him a lot.
I actually have real struggles, too, trolls, but my dyke princess ones are way funnier to read about. But perhaps one of my biggest struggles, the biggest tragic inconvenience to my pathetic life, is that not one, but two of my exes have gotten engaged. Like really engaged. With rings and Facebook relationship status updates and everything.
If you are dating someone seriously, how peaceful do you feel when you think They may have years of marriage experience to back up their concerns, and.
I knew on our very first date that my guy was something special. I realize there are exceptions to the rule. As romantic as that sounds, I think the average divorce rate is an obvious example of the probability that situations like that rarely work out. People can fake it for a long time—trust me. I spent two years with a guy before his abusive habits and drinking problems came to light.
She posted the phrase just six months into her new relationship, right underneath a cute photo of her shiny new engagement ring. I wondered what that phrase really meant to her. People change depending on their environment. There are various financial benefits to doing such a thing, but it has its consequences. Job hopping can often lead to big moves across state lines or even oceans.
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Kimi doesn't expect any surprises in Bahrain
Alfa Romeo's Kimi Raikkonen doesn't expect the ‘Outer Circuit' in Bahrain to surprise the teams after racing on several new tracks in 2020. Formula 1 will conclude its 2020 season with three rounds in Asia, two of these will be at the Bahrain International Circuit with the final round of the season taking place at Abu Dhabi's Yas Marina Circuit. First up is the Bahrain Grand Prix, a familiar stomping ground for Formula 1, but on the following weekend the Sakhir Grand Prix will be contested at the same venue, but this time on the ‘Outer Circuit' as opposed to the ‘Grand Prix Circuit'. With the Outer Circuit will come much faster lap times and a higher average pace, but...
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Computer Modeling of Surgical Outcomes for Nasal Airway Obstruction
Rhee, John S.
Search 12 grants from John Rhee
Targeted bacterial restoration of colonization resistance against C. difficile
Role of KMT2D and aberrant enhancers in modulating tumor microenvironment in melanoma
Physiology of Electrogenic Na/HCO3 Cotransporters
Phase II: Hawaiian Values, Science and Technology: Advancing A New Paradigm for STEM Education
SIMMS Integrated Mathematics: A Modeling Approach Using Technology
Information Dissemination Core
Neutrophil Plasticity and H. pylori Pathogenesis
Nasal airway obstruction (NAO) is a common health condition that is treated by many specialties of medicine and often needs surgical correction. The complexity of the nasal airway lends itself perfectly to the creation of a computational tool to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of NAO. In the context of surgical failure rates for treatment of NAO reported as high as 50%, none of the existing objective measures of nasal airflow patency has been shown to consistently correlate with patient symptomatology or to be an accurate predictor of successful surgical intervention. The long-term goal of this study is to develop a tool that would be universally accessible to clinicians and be accurately predictive of patient's symptoms. Even more exciting would be a tool that would aid surgeons in designing specific surgical techniques or interventions that would maximize the potential for successful outcomes. With the availability of powerful bioengineering computer-aided design software, anatomically- accurate, three dimensional computational models can be generated from patient-specific digital data captured by computed tomography (CT) scans. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques allow for the merger of anatomy with physiology by creating a virtual model of the nasal cavity with computed measures of airflow, heat transfer, and air humidification. The potential for improvements in patient outcome when CFD modeling tools are used in nasal surgical planning is enormous, particularly for previously challenging cases. In addition, unnecessary surgical procedures may potentially be reduced by allowing the physician to better select surgically treatable patients and to target specific areas of concern within the nasal valve region without """"""""guessing"""""""" which of the procedures may be most beneficial to the patient. Furthermore, the computed nasal geometry can be virtually modified in a manner reflecting surgical techniques and new patterns of airflow and heat and water vapor transport can be predicted that could effectively estimate surgical outcomes - i.e virtual surgery. This study proposes to evaluate the association between this novel bioengineering tool (CFD) with patient-reported subjective measures of nasal obstruction. Furthermore, because CFD modeling allows the nasal geometry to be virtually modified in a manner reflecting surgical techniques, the findings of this study would lay the groundwork for future pre-surgical virtual surgery and predictive modeling for post-surgical outcomes with the ultimate long-term goal of improved surgical outcomes for patients with nasal airway obstruction.
Nasal airway obstruction (NAO) is a common health condition that crosses many specialties of medicine and affects all age groups. NAO has been shown to impact mood, energy, recreation, sleep and overall quality of life. It is estimated that annually $5 billion is spent on medications to treat NAO and an additional $60 million is spent on surgical therapy. An anatomic basis for NAO is common;it has been reported that up to 25% of the population suffers from nasal obstruction due to anatomic deformities unrelated to allergic reasons. However, the surgical correction of nasal anatomic deformities has not always been successful in improving patient's symptoms of NAO, with reported surgical failure rates as high as 50%. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques is a novel state-of-the art technology that allows for the merger of nasal anatomy with physiology. The potential for improvements in patient outcome when CFD modeling tools are used in nasal surgical planning is enormous, particularly for previously challenging cases. In addition, unnecessary surgical procedures may potentially be reduced by allowing the physician to better select surgically treatable patients and to target specific areas of concern within the nasal valve region without """"""""guessing"""""""" which of the procedures may be most beneficial to the patient. In addition, the futuristic scenario of a physician using electronic medical records to download CT data into a user-friendly, simplified CFD software package to rapidly create a CFD model for each patient is not too hard to conceive. The physician can then make changes to the model with immediate computations of changes of nasal airway resistance, airflow distributions, and heat and humidity alterations. The patient would then be counseled on the appropriate surgical plan and the physician can use the virtual surgery model to help plan his/her surgical approach. Extending beyond the individual patient level, this modeling tool can serve as a powerful educational tool for physicians- in-training and paramedical personnel. Furthermore, with the universality of CT scans and the ability to post-process the """"""""raw data"""""""", the potential for telemedicine consulting for difficult nasal airway cases would also become more appealing and fruitful.
National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (NIBIB)
Research Project (R01)
5R01EB009557-04
Special Emphasis Panel (ZRG1-BCHI-C (09))
Peng, Grace
R01 EB Creating Virtual Surgery Targets & Methods to Improve Outcomes of Nasal Surgery
Rhee, John S. / Medical College of Wisconsin
Rhee, John S. / Medical College of Wisconsin $345,120
R01 EB Creating Virtual Surgery Targets &Methods to Improve Outcomes of Nasal Surgery
R01 EB Computer Modeling of Surgical Outcomes for Nasal Airway Obstruction
Clipp, Rachel B; Vicory, Jared; Horvath, Samantha et al. (2018) An Interactive, Patient-Specific Virtual Surgical Planning System for Upper Airway Obstruction Treatments. Conf Proc IEEE Eng Med Biol Soc 2018:5802-5805
A T Borojeni, Azadeh; Frank-Ito, Dennis O; Kimbell, Julia S et al. (2017) Creation of an idealized nasopharynx geometry for accurate computational fluid dynamics simulations of nasal airflow in patient-specific models lacking the nasopharynx anatomy. Int J Numer Method Biomed Eng 33:
Casey, Kevin P; Borojeni, Azadeh A T; Koenig, Lisa J et al. (2017) Correlation between Subjective Nasal Patency and Intranasal Airflow Distribution. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 156:741-750
Gaberino, Courtney; Rhee, John S; Garcia, Guilherme J M (2017) Estimates of nasal airflow at the nasal cycle mid-point improve the correlation between objective and subjective measures of nasal patency. Respir Physiol Neurobiol 238:23-32
Bailey, Ryan S; Casey, Kevin P; Pawar, Sachin S et al. (2017) Correlation of Nasal Mucosal Temperature With Subjective Nasal Patency in Healthy Individuals. JAMA Facial Plast Surg 19:46-52
Garcia, Guilherme J M; Hariri, Benjamin M; Patel, Ruchin G et al. (2016) The relationship between nasal resistance to airflow and the airspace minimal cross-sectional area. J Biomech 49:1670-1678
Dayal, Anupriya; Rhee, John S; Garcia, Guilherme J M (2016) Impact of Middle versus Inferior Total Turbinectomy on Nasal Aerodynamics. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 155:518-25
Garcia, Guilherme J M; Patel, Ruchin G; Frank-Ito, Dennis O et al. (2015) Response to Dr Chung's Question on Simulating the Nasal Cycle with Computational Fluid Dynamics. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 153:308-9
Hariri, Benjamin M; Rhee, John S; Garcia, Guilherme J M (2015) Identifying patients who may benefit from inferior turbinate reduction using computer simulations. Laryngoscope 125:2635-41
Patel, Ruchin G; Garcia, Guilherme J M; Frank-Ito, Dennis O et al. (2015) Simulating the nasal cycle with computational fluid dynamics. Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg 152:353-60
Showing the most recent 10 out of 26 publications
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Salmon count signals hope for Cheewaht recovery
By Mike Youds / January 12, 2021
Looking north toward Cheewaht Lake. Restoration work took place on the northeastern shore of the lake. (MC Wright and Associates photo)
Cheewaht Lake, BC
Logging was already underway in the Cheewaht watershed when fisheries biologist Mike Wright first set eyes on the area south of Nitinat Lake 38 years ago.
By the mid-1980s, timber harvest started to increase, setting in motion a cascading chain of events that would threaten to wipe out Cheewaht salmon.
“Basically, they removed much of the canopy above the national park boundary,” Wright recalls.
The Nanaimo-based contractor is encouraged three years into a five-year restoration effort, having worked closely with Ditidaht First Nation and documented Cheewaht’s decline due to logging.
A small drainage compared to nearby Nitinat, Cheewaht used to punch above its weight as a reliably abundant source of salmon preferred by Ditidaht people. A five-kilometre river drains southwest to the Pacific, once producing sockeye, coho, chinook and chum as well as steelhead and cutthroat trout. Sockeye, one of the earliest runs in B.C., also rear in the lake, above which lie three small tributary streams that provided highly productive spawning beds.
“It was a very important food source for the villages of Clo-oose, Wyah and Cheewaht, and was managed in such a way that supported us pre-contact through fishing weirs,” said Paul Sieber, natural resource manager, Ditidaht First Nation.
Cheewaht watershed is more than a food source. A number of sacred Ditidaht sites and some of the world’s largest remaining cedars are found there.
“Families owned rights to certain spots on the Cheewaht River and built fish weirs to harvest their sockeye needs,” said Chief Councillor Brian Tate. “Young men would camp out on the Cheewaht River during the sockeye run and harvest for families at Wyah, Clo-oose and Cheewaht villages. These salmon harvest practices built family bonding and unity through helping and sharing with each other.”
Hydrological effects of logging on Vancouver Island’s west coast were already studied and well understood, even as the trees fell on slopes above Pacific Rim National Park Reserve. A multidisciplinary, multi-agency experiment began at Carnation Creek in Barkley Sound 50 years ago. Park boundaries were extended in the 1970s due to environmental concerns, but Parks Canada lacked authority to control upslope logging.
Typically, damage from logging doesn’t develop for a number of years, Wright said. In the Cheewaht, increased sedimentation occurred within five years. An irreversible process was rippling across the landscape. At one state, a debris jam blew apart, sending accumulated gravel downstream. Debris was eventually distributed across the anadromous zone inhabited by salmon. A debris zone created at the confluence of the small tributaries kept moving around.
“This is like a ping pong ball over a long period of time,” Wright said.
A shifting climate and marine conditions coincided with habitat decline due to logging and its effect on egg-to-fry survival. A 1992 El Nino event had a major impact on sockeye coastwide, Wright noted. The most significant geomorphological event occurred in 1997, when a new channel was cut down to the lake.
When Wright returned in 2001 to do stock assessment training and mapping with Ditidaht members, they knew degrading was occurring, he said. A watershed stakeholder group was formed in 2008. B.C. Timber funded additional studies in 2009, by which time conditions had degraded further.
“2009, that was when we really started to see the impact of logging done in the late ’80s and early ’90s,” Wright said. Sockeye escapement dropped to 10 percent of historic highs.
Paul Sieber, Ditidaht resource manager, said restoration planning began in earnest when the working group was restarted in 2017. Parks Canada pursued Species at Risk funding, which allowed major restoration efforts to proceed.
Last summer, workers from the Ditidaht community joined Parks Canada and contractors to remove more than 3,000 cubic metres of debris and sediment from the tributary streams. Banks were reinforced and logs strategically placed for enhanced spawning and rearing habitats along a one-kilometre stretch. The project was funded by a $1.1 million federal investment through Parks Canada’s Conservation and Restoration Program.
“It took a lot of collaboration between Parks Canada and First Nations and it worked out well,” Sieber said.
The work was challenging. A temporary corduroy road had to be built to bring in heavy equipment and only available materials could be used to recreate spawning habitat. They are encouraged last fall by the sight of adult sockeye, counting 3,400 fish and as many as 1,300 in a single day.
“That high return is a good start,” said biologist Ryan Abbott of M.C. Wright and Associates.
“It’s really good,” he stressed, noting each female can lay 3,000 eggs.
Sieber said they will continue monitoring the streams for the next four of five years to determine the effectiveness of the restoration work. The 2024 return should be telling.
“The Cheewaht sockeye run is only one of two and we concentrated on it first because it was highly endangered, and we needed to save it,” Sieber said. “We do want to expand restoration projects in that lake and watershed. There are ongoing talks with DFO. It’s a huge task. We do monitor the Nitinat River, but that’s all. We want to do work in all salmon streams.”
Forests can take 40 to 100 years to recover from logging. It could take 20 years or more to determine the effectiveness of restoration, Wright said. With climate change and intense storms, slopes are more saturated, he noted.
“We’re always waiting for something to let go,” he cautioned.
They have five remote cameras set up, shooting every half hour in daylight, to keep close watch.
Wright feels the project demonstrates greater potential for rebuilding salmon habitat elsewhere.
“It is probably one of the highlights of my career,” he said.
The question of how to prevent destructive logging practices often comes up at the roundtable.
“We have to do a better job of managing the landscape,” Wright said. “How do you get government to rethink how logging practices occur? What are adequate buffers to sustain stream beds?”
While Parks Canada continues to monitor the watershed, Ditidaht First Nation intends to assume that role in the long term with development of its guardian program.
Groups monitor Clayoquot fish farm trial
Salmon crisis calls for tripartite action, MPs told
Mowachaht/Muchalaht catch encouraging numbers from the Conuma River
Sam Laskaris
Nootka Sound rallies to save vanishing ‘qiwah’
Tseshaht’s sockeye stance led to chinook stalemate, says DFO
Tseshaht block access to Somass while DFO sits on agreement
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“There’s Hollywood Elsewhere and then there’s everything else. It’s your neighborhood dive where you get the ugly truth, a good laugh and a damn good scotch.”
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–Alejandro G. Inarritu
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“Nothing comes close to HE for truthfulness, audacity, and one-eyed passion and insight.”
(Salt, Clear and Present Danger, Rabbit-Proof Fence, Dead Calm)
“A rarity and a gem … Hollywood Elsewhere is the first thing I go to every morning.”
“Jeffrey Wells isn’t kidding around. Well, he does kid around, but mostly he just loves movies.”
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“If you’re in a movie that doesn’t work, game over and adios muchachos — no amount of star-charisma can save it.”
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November 23, 2020by Jeffrey Wells5 Comments
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HOLLYWOOD ( and all that )
hanging out and hanging on in life and the movies (listening to great music)
Tag Archives: Roscoe Lee Browne
JAMES EARL JONES REMEMBERS ( Filming “THE COMEDIANS” with Richard Burton, Elizabeth Taylor, and Alec Guinness )
Long before he provided the ominous tones for Darth Vader and created the most iconic-sounding villain in screen history, James Earl Jones made his mark in a number of major productions of stage and screen. It was his role in Jean Genet’s groundbreaking play The Blacks, first staged in New York in 1961, and running for a record-breaking 1408 performances, that led to one of his most memorable early film experiences.
James Earl Jones and Cicely Tyson in The Blacks
Polish poster for The Comedians
Peter Glenville, a leading British director of the time who had closely collaborated with Graham Greene and Tennessee Williams, was looking for a number of black actors to take roles in his forthcoming film of Greene’s The Comedians, set amidst the turmoil of ‘Papa Doc’ Duvalier’s Haiti. Going to The Blacks, which was one of the top off-Broadway hits of the decade, Glenville was presented with an embarrassment of acting riches. Jones was not the only one to be cast in the film as a result of his performance in the play: joining him were Cicely Tyson, Zakes Mokae, and Roscoe Lee Brown. Also in the film was a young Gloria Foster, who later made a mark as the Oracle in the first two Matrix pictures.
For Jones, working on The Comedians was memorable both on, and off, screen. For rarely can a young actor have found himself spending time with such a luminous A-list cast: Elizabeth Taylor, Richard Burton, Alec Guinness, Peter Ustinov, not to mention the legendary star of silent pictures, Lillian Gish.
Peter Glenville (c., standing) with the cast of The Comedians
A few years ago I produced an oral history of the life and work of Peter Glenville, and James Earl Jones kindly agreed to share his reminiscences with Susan Loewenberg, Producing Director of L.A. TheatreWorks, who commissioned the history on behalf of the Peter Glenville Foundation.
Peter Glenville directing Ustinov and Taylor
The segment about The Comedians was my favorite, enlivened by Jones’s commentary, his extraordinary presence, and that voice. (In a technical sidebar, that voice was so resonant with bass frequencies that the engineer had quite some trouble recording it without distortion).
Now you can enjoy his story too……
https://hollywoodandallthat.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/filming-22the-comedians22.m4a
Narrator: Martin Jarvis. Voice of Peter Glenville: Simon Templeman.
by hollywoodandallthat
filed under Acting, Actors, Audio, Film, Film History, Hollywood, James Earl Jones, Memoir, Movie Stars, Movies, Political Thrillers, Popular Culture, Radio Work, The Comedians, Theatre
tagged as Acting, Actors, Alec Guinness, Cicely Tyson, Elizabeth Taylor, Graham Greene, Haiti, Hollywood, James Earl Jones, Jean Genet, Lillian Gish, Mark Ward, Martin Jarvis, Movie Stars, Movies, Papa Doc, Peter Glenville, Radio Work, Richard Burton, Roscoe Lee Browne, Simon Templeman, The Blacks, The Comedians, Zakes Mokae
Film Work: “Clinic E”
Radio Work
A MUSICAL METAMORPHOSIS by ORLANDO DI LASSO
THE MAKING OF DAVID BOWIE’S “HEROES”
A SHORT HISTORY OF THE DOCTOR WHO THEME
THE “OTHER” TERMINATOR ( MARVIN THE PARANOID ANDROID )
BRANDO ON SET OF “APOCALYPSE NOW” ( Photos by MARY ELLEN MARK )
JOHN BOORMAN IN HOLLYWOOD ( “QUEEN AND COUNTRY” AT THE AMERICAN CINEMATHEQUE )
BEETHOVEN TRANSFIGURED ( THE NEUEN EFFECT )
EINSTEIN’S MONSTERS ( Martin Amis, the Bomb, and Thinking the Unthinkable )
JAMES BOND on the SOUTH BANK SHOW
THEMES FOR SECRET AGENTS ( The Phase 4 Stereo Effect Part 1: James Bond, Roland Shaw, et al. )
The Wit and Wisdom of Nora Ephron
HAPPY 450th, BILL! ( How I Celebrated Shakespeare’s Birthday with Sir Ian McKellen )
THE MAN IN THE MACHINE ( Kraftwerk Live at Disney Hall )
IN A HOLLYWOOD STATE OF MIND
( HOW MANY MILES TO ) BABYLON?
The Story of British Prog Rock
The Making of Peter Gabriel’s “Security”
Composing “E.T.” ( Happy 82nd Birthday, John Williams )
TRIPPING THE SOUND FANTASTIC ( Dramatizing “THE RIME OF THE ANCIENT MARINER” for Radio )
THE RIME OF THE ANCIENT MARINER ( Full Dramatization )
“CLINIC E” ( A Dark Comedy about Getting The Test )
“We’ll Meet Again” ( Celebrating 50 Years of “Dr. Strangelove” )
The Wit and Wisdom of Sir Alan Parker
THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING MUSIC CUE ( or How “An American Werewolf in London” Lost Its Bite )
NAPOLEON REDUX ( The Emperor of Films Returns )
A Little Birthday Gilliam ( without so much rat in it )
WHEN MARTIANS ROAMED THE EARTH ( THE STORY BEHIND “THE WAR OF THE WORLDS” )
FILMMAKERS on FILMMAKERS ( ALAN PARKER on KEVIN BROWNLOW )
Celebrating Rita Hayworth
LILLIAN GISH in “The Wind”
Drawn to Greatness ( Richard Williams at the Academy )
HOLLYWOOD by STEICHEN
How to draw Bugs and a Certain Coyote
THE GARBO EFFECT
Terry Gilliam on the Art of Animation
Paul Thomas Anderson on Max Ophuls
Kubrick’s Favorite Movies ( Happy 85th Stanley! )
The Original British Bad Boy: Terence Stamp at 75
Happy 75th Miss. Natalie
INTERMISSION: 60s-STYLE
50 years of Fellini’s 8 1/2
THE GREATEST FILM EVER MADE? ( “NAPOLEON” on BASTILLE DAY )
HAPPY 130th BIRTHDAY, FRANZ! ( Kafka meets Welles in “The Trial” )
KUBRICK at LACMA
Bert shoots Marilyn… (and Marilyn shoots Bert)
Audrey by Bert
MY DAD ON EVEREST AND BEYOND ( OF GOD AND SCIENCE )
Watching every Hitchcock cameo….
RAY HARRYHAUSEN ( ANIMATING THE IMAGINATION )
And All That
HOLLYWOOD AND ALL THAT on Facebook
Follow HOLLYWOOD ( and all that ) on WordPress.com
STILL 'FATALE' AFTER ALL THESE YEARS ( "The Last Picture Show" Returns )
THE "OTHER" TERMINATOR ( MARVIN THE PARANOID ANDROID )
Visions of Hollywood ( and all that )
THEMES FOR SECRET AGENTS (Roland Shaw and his Orchestra/Phase 4 Stereo)
The Ipcress File
Our Man Flint
The Spy Who Came in from the Cold
Theme from The Man From U.N.C.L.E.
Let the Love Come Through
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Days Of Our Lives Spoilers Wednesday, June 5: Claire Tries To Kill Tripp And Haley – Sami Called For Dying Will – Eli Dumps Lani
By Heather Hughes Last updated Jun 4, 2019
“Days of Our Lives” spoilers for Wednesday, June 5, tease that Sonny Kiriakis (Freddie Smith) will get some shocking news about Eve Deveraux (Kassie DePaiva). He’ll find out John Black (Drake Hogestyn) suspects Eve has the diary, so he’ll be on a mission soon. Sonny will be determined to corner Eve and pry any information he can out of her.
DOOL fans know Dr. Wilhelm Rolf’s (William Utay) formula could help Will Horton (Chandler Massey) avoid imminent death. Will’s running out of time, so Sonny will go to Eve and launch a tirade. He’ll continue his outburst in the next episode, which means plenty of fierce scenes are coming up.
Other “Days of Our Lives” spoilers say Dr. Marlena Evans (Deidre Hall) will reach out to Sami Brady (Alison Sweeney). Now that things are truly bleak for Will, Sami and Lucas Horton (Bryan Dattilo) need to know what’s going on. Marlena will give Sami a call so she tell Lucas and get back to Salem immediately.
Days Of Our Lives Spoilers – Lani Price Makes A Stunning Move After Split
Meanwhile, “Days” spoilers state that Eli Grant (Lamon Archey) will decide it’s time for a split. Lani Price (Sal Stowers) has become obsessed with David Ridgeway and that’s not just going to work for Eli.
Days of Our Lives Spoilers: Ben’s Shocking Discovery Is A Game-Changer!
He wants a girlfriend he can hang out with, but Lani’s too busy on diaper duty – which has led to some bonding with Rafe Hernandez (Galen Gering) as well.
“Days of Our Lives” spoilers say Lani will make a stunning move after the split. Once she’s a free woman, it seems she may go in for a kiss with Rafe. He won’t respond well to Lani’s advances, so stay tuned for more drama next week.
Days Of Our Lives Spoilers – Claire Brady Has Become Completely Unhinged
Until then, Ben Weston (Robert Scott Wilson) will frantically hunt for Claire Brady (Olivia Rose Keegan). Thanks to Claire’s ringtone, Ben has all the confirmation he needs. He knows Claire is the fire-setter, so he’ll hope to track Claire down before she causes another round of danger.
Days of Our Lives Spoilers: Firebug Claire Tries To Kill Tripp And Haley, Horton Cabin Engulfed In Flames https://t.co/wr0sxWMTDx #days #DOOL #daysofourlives
— SOS/CTS/HH (@SoapOperaSpy) June 4, 2019
However, it’s a little late for that! DOOL spoilers say Claire will end up outside the Horton cabin on Wednesday. She’ll see Tripp and Haley Chen (Thia Megia) there together, which will lead her to believe they’re making a getaway as a couple. Claire’s anger will drive her to burn the cabin down with Haley and Tripp inside, so she’s clearly coming unhinged at this point.
It sounds like another hot episode’s coming up. We’ll give you updates as other “Days” details and rumors emerge. Stick with DOOL and don’t forget to check Hollywood Hiccups often for the latest “Days of Our Lives” spoilers, rumors, updates and news.
Heather Hughes
Heather Hughes is a freelance writer who graduated summa cum laude with a Bachelor of Arts degree in telecommunications. She’s a self-proclaimed soap opera aficionado who enjoys eating peanut butter cups, staying up late and sharing her passion for entertainment with others.
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Home » Events » Stand with India
Stand with India
September 30, 2019 by Indian Diaspora ·
One nation, one constitution spirit has become a reality now by abrogating of Articles 370 and 35A
What was the reason behind revocation of Article 370 and 35A?
The system that prevailed over the past seventy years had aggravated separatism and given birth to terrorism. It had encouraged dynastic rule and in a way strengthened the foundations of corruption and discrimination.
Indian constitution guarantees secular and democratic governance for all Indians irrespective of their race and religion. Unfortunately Kashmir Valley of J & K state , which has a 70% Muslim population in 1947 at the time of joining the union of independent India, has now become 96.4% Muslim due to the genocide, terror and discrimination of its Hindu, Sikh and Buddhist communities, especially the people known as Kashmiri Pandits.
Article 370 is a Temporary, transitional provisions it’s NOT “Special“. Some of the discriminatory and non-democratic provisions of Article 370 will shock the law-makers and citizens of Australia.
Kashmir has a separate constitution, diverse to the secular and democratic foundations of the Indian constitution; this literally amounts to dual citizenship
A non-Kashmiri marrying a Kashmiri does not have any rights in Kashmir
No rights to minorities and victimization of other tribes.
Human waste was still carried out on head with bare hands in Jammu Kashmir because of 370.
Right to Information law (RTI) applies to all of India except in Kashmir
Prohibition of Child marriage law, child labour prevention applies all of India except Kashmir
Astonishingly, per Article 35A, Kashmir’s Hindu Valmiki community can only work as sweepers in the state, despite being educated
In 1948, Government of India complained to the UN Security Council under Article 35 of UN Charter on aggression by Pakistan. In several forums, including the UN, the following atrocities by Pakistan on the cohorts below have been highlighted.
Pakistan Occupied Jammu Kashmir(POJK) Refugees
West Pak Refugees
Kashmiri Hindu displaced from the Kashmir Valley in 1990
War displaced persons from Chamb in 1947, 1965 and 1971.
Terrorism affected people of Jammu and Kashmir region
Human rights violations in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB)
Demographics are being changed by introducing Chinese, Punjabis and pakhtoons of others regions to GB.
As an example, a few details about the GB region;
80% of schools are not functioning, no higher education facility
Lack of basic infrastructure like roads
Status of women is so poor, women are still treated as mere sex objects
Women have no right to education and work
The abrogation of Article 370 and 35A has been carried out in both Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha (upper and lower house) by two-thirds majority. This means that everyone wanted this decision, but perhaps they were waiting for somebody to initiate the same and carry it forward.
Poverty reduction and empowerment
Equal opportunity creation at par with rest of India, in education and jobs
Development as a Medical tourism hub for the Middle East and East Asia
International exposure to the local handicraft industry and culture
Promotion as a premium tourism destination at par with European standards
Dalit brothers and sisters living there, get the rights which they have been deprived of so far.
Women of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh get their rights.
Rights are enjoyed by tribals in India is now enjoyed by Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh communities like Gujjars, Bakarwals, Gaddis, Sippies or Balties- all such communities must be empowered with political rights.
The dream of Ék Bharat Shreshtha Bharat is fulfilled now.
Happy Independence Day India
15th August 2018, Happy Independence day India, home and birthplace of Hindus.
Caste System in India and UK
An expose of Caste System in India and in UK by Karolina Goswami.
India Run Festival in Melbourne
By: Makrand Bhagwat. Hindu Council of Australia Victoria chapter alongwith other parivar organisations is supporting this India run festival. The…
Can Hindus be accorded minority status in seven states and one Union Territory in India
Report on Hindus in seven states soon: National Commission for Minorities By Sana Shakil| Express News Service | Published: 26th May…
Persecution of Hindus in Russia
Russian religious persecution of Hindus are sparking a call for an investigation from two American law makers. In an effort…
Christians students to visit India to learn how Hindus and Christians coexist in relative harmony
Students of George Fox University, a Christian college in USA plan to to visit various countries of the world including…
Filed Under: Events, Hate Speech, Hindus in India, News Australia, NSW Sydney, Persecution of Hindus · Tagged: KAshmir
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Foreign Relations of the United States, 1958–1960, Indonesia, Volume XVII
240. Memorandum of Conversation0
Washington, February 19, 1960.
Defense of West New Guinea
For the Netherlands
Mr. Theo Bot, State Secretary for Netherlands New Guinea Affairs1
Mr. E. Schiff, Chargé d’Affaires
Mr. P. de Lavalette, First Secretary
Mr. J. Huydecoper, First Secretary
For the United States
WE—Mr. McBride
WE—Mr. Cameron
WE—Mr. Chadbourn
WE—Mr. Cromwell
Mr. Bot said that he wished to emphasize two major points. First, while Dutch-Australian technical and administrative cooperation was [Page 467]satisfactory, the Australians would cooperate no further in political and military matters until there were clear indications that the U.S. would approve. Therefore, Mr. Bot continued, the best plan of action would be for the Dutch to issue a clear statement of their purpose and intents in New Guinea, this statement to be supported unequivocally and publicly by the U.S., the U.K., and Australia. Such actions would clear the air and would put to rest any possible gnawing doubts in the minds of the Dutch now in West New Guinea.
Second, Mr. Bot said that West New Guinea had inadequate defenses, but that the Australian section was probably in even worse shape. In this connection/he mentioned that while Australian New Guinea was covered by ANZUS and SEATO guarantees, no such treaty protection was presently given to Dutch New Guinea. He believed it essential, therefore, that secret joint U.S.-Australian-Dutch military planning be undertaken and also that the U.S. issue a secret protocol guaranteeing to defend West New Guinea.
Source: Department of State, Central Files, 756C.5/2–1960. Secret. Drafted by W. Kennedy Cromwell of WE.↩
Bot arrived in the United States on February 19 for a 2-day visit on his return from an inspection tour of West New Guinea and Australian New Guinea. Briefing papers for Bot’s visit were transmitted to Parsons under cover of a memorandum from Mein, dated February 17. (Ibid., SPA Files: Lot 63 D 436, Briefing File) See Supplement. Prior to this meeting Bot met with Deputy Under Secretary Hare and Acting Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs Woodruff Wallner. The three meetings were summarized in a February 20 letter from Philip Chadbourn of WE to Ambassador Young. Chadbourn noted that the meeting with Hare was largely nonsubstantive; it “turned out to be a National Geographic travelogue about life and things in New Guinea.” (Department of State, SPA Files: Lot 63 D 106, Indonesia) A memorandum of the conversation between Wallner and Bot, February 19, is ibid., Central Files, 033.56C11/2–1960. See Supplement.↩
List of Sources
List of Persons
Indonesia (Documents 1-296)
August 1959–August 1960: President Sukarno’s Invitation to President Eisenhower To Visit Indonesia; Khrushchev’s Visit to Indonesia; and Heightened Indonesian-Netherlands Tension Over the West Irian-West New Guinea Dispute Occasioned by the Cruise of the Karel Doorman (Documents 217-274)
Cameron, Turner C., Jr.Chadbourn, Philip H.Hare, Raymond A.Huydecoper, Jonkheer J.L.R.McBride, Robert H.Mein, John GordonParsons, J. GrahamWallner, WoodruffYoung, Philip
ANZUSSEATOSPAWE
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Home Research > Members > 1386-1421 > F
FAGGER (VAGGERE), William, of Hamsey by Lewes, Suss.
FAIRCLOUGH, John, of Derby.
FAIRE, Mark le (d.1417/18), of Winchester and Freefolk, Hants.
FALCONER, Richard, of Leicester.
FALK, John (d.1426), of Hereford.
FARINGDON, Thomas (d.1444), of Tincleton, Dorset.
FARINGDON, William.
FARLE, Richard, of Reading, Berks.
FARLEGH, Thomas.
FARNALES, John (d.c.1403), of Bridgnorth, Salop.
FARNCOMBE, Roger, of Shoreham, Suss.
FARNFOLD, John.
FARNHURST, William, of Chichester, Suss.
FARTHING, Robert, of Canterbury, Kent.
FASTOLF, Hugh (d.c.1392), of Great Yarmouth and Caister, Norf. and London.
FAUCONER see also MELBOURNE
FAUCONER, Thomas (d.1434), of London.
FAUCONER, William (d.1412), of Kingsclere, Hants.
FAUCONER, John, of Devizes, Wilts.
FAWKES, Thomas, of Bishop's Lynn, Norf.
FELAWE, John, of Calne, Wilts.
FELBRIGG, John, of Ipswich, Suff.
FELTON, Sir John (c.1339-1396), of Edlingham, Northumb.
FENN, Hugh atte (d.1409), of Great Yarmouth, Norf.
FENN, Peter atte, of Great Yarmouth, Norf.
FENNINGHAM, William, of East Grinstead and Waldron, Suss.
FENTON, Henry, of Stafford.
FERET, Adam.
FERROUR, John, of Cricklade, Wilts.
FERROUR, Richard (d.1402/3), of Wells, Som.
FERROUR, Thomas, of Bedford.
FERROUR, alias BARKES, alias SMITH, Richard, of Warwick.
FETTE, John (d.c.1433), of Huntingdon.
FETTIPLACE, Peter (d.1444), of Stokenchurch, Oxon.
FIENNES, Sir Roger (1384-1449), of Herstmonceux, Suss.
FILOLL, William (c.1380-1416), of Woodlands, Dorset.
FILONGLEY, Henry, of Old Filongley, Warws.
FINDON, John.
FISHER, Robert, of Arundel, Suss.
FISHER, Walter, of Hythe, Kent.
FISHLAKE, Robert, of Dover, Kent and Winchelsea, Suss.
FITLING, John (d.1434), of Kingston-upon-Hull, Yorks.
FITTON, Laurence (d.1434).
FITTON, Richard (c.1376-1437), of Pownall, Cheshire.
FITZHERBERT, Nicholas (d.1422/3), of Tavistock, Devon.
FITZHERBERT, Sir Edmund (1338-87), of Hinton Martell, Dorset and Ewhurst, Suss.
FITZJAMES, James (d.c.1423), of Wyke Champflower, Som.
FITZNICHOL, Sir Thomas (c.1354-1418), of Hill, near Berkeley, Glos.
FITZRICHARD, Ralph, of Newbury in Silsoe, Westhey and Faldo, Beds.
FITZSYMOND, Sir John (c.1342-c.1392), of North Shoebury, Essex.
FITZWARYN, Sir Ivo (1347-1414), of Caundle Haddon, Dorset.
FLAMVILLE, Sir William (c.1325-c.1396), of Aston Flamville, Leics.
FLEET, John.
FLEMING, John, of Rochester, Kent.
FLETE, William (d.1444), of Rickmansworth, Herts. and London.
FLORE, Roger (d.1427), of Oakham, Rutland.
FLOWER (FLOURE), John, of Maldon, Essex.
FOGG, Sir Thomas (d.1407), of Repton in Ashford and Canterbury, Kent.
FOLJAMBE, Thomas (d.1433), of Walton and Brimington, Derbys.
FOLKTON, John, of Scarborough, Yorks.
FORD, Edmund (d.1440), of Swainswick, Som.
FORD, Henry, of Melcombe Regis, Dorset.
FORD, John I (d.1406/7), of Tavistock, Devon.
FORD, John II, of Dorset.
FORD, John III (d.1426), of Colchester, Essex.
FORD, Simon atte, of Bridport, Dorset.
FORD, William (d.1418), of Weymouth and Dorchester, Dorset.
FORDHAM, Simon (d.1400), of Colchester, Essex.
FORSHEY, Andrew, of Bridport, Dorset.
FORSTER, Gilbert (d.1410), of Winchester, Hants.
FORSTER, Henry, of Leicester and Hessle, Yorks.
FORSTER, John, of Oxford.
FORSTER, Roger, of Lewes, Suss.
FORSTER, Thomas II, of Lincoln.
FORSTER, William (d.1443), of Scarborough, Yorks.
FORSTER, Thomas I.
FORSTHULL, Thomas, of Oxford.
FORTESCUE, Henry (d.c.1458), of Wood Barton in Woodleigh and Fallapit in East Allington, Devon.
FORTESCUE, John (d.1479), of Devon.
FORTHEY, John, of Worcester.
FOSSE, William, of Grimsby, Lincs.
FOUNTENAY, Thomas (d.c.1417), of Kingston-upon-Hull, Yorks.
FOVENT, alias OSEGOOD, Robert, of Shaftesbury, Dorset.
FOWELL (FOGHELL), Richard I, of Seaford, Suss.
FOWELL, Richard II.
FOWLER, William.
FOX, Richard (d.1435), of Thonglands, Salop; Haselbeech, Northants and Arkesden, Essex.
FOX, Thomas, of Nottingham.
FOXLEY, John, of Dartmouth, Devon.
FOXTON, John, of Huntingdon.
FRAMPTON, John (c.1365-1425), of Moreton, Dorset.
FRANCIS, Sir Adam (d.1417), of London and Edmonton, Mdx.
FRANCIS, Sir Robert (d.1419/20), of Foremark, Derbys.
FRANCIS, Thomas (d.1416/17), of Colchester, Essex.
FRANK, Philip (d.1432), of Bishop's Lynn, Norf.
FRAUNCEYS see also CLIBURN
FRAUNCEYS, Sewal, of Bath, Som.
FRAY, John (d.1461), of London and Munden Furnival, Herts.
FREEMAN, Richard.
FREEMAN, Thomas.
FRENCH, John I, of Hythe, Kent.
FRENCH, John II (d.1419/20), of Winchelsea and Pevensey, Suss.
FRENCH, John III, of Winchester, Hants.
FRENCH, Robert, of Totnes, Devon.
FRENCH, Martin, of Hythe, Kent.
FRENINGHAM, John (1345-1410), of Farningham, Loose and West Barming, Kent.
FREPURS, John, of Bedford.
FRERE, Walter, of Wycombe, Bucks.
FRERE, William, of Rochester, Kent.
FREREMAN, Thomas, of Bedford.
FREVILLE, William (c.1396-1460), of Little Shelford, Cambs.
FRIAR (FRERE), Geoffrey, of Worcester.
FRODEN, Michael, of Cornwall.
FROME, John (d.1404), of Buckingham, Bucks. and Woodlands, Dorset.
FROME, William (d.1413), of Bristol.
FROMOND, Gregory, of Shoreham, Suss.
FROSH, John (d.1397), of London.
FROST, William (d.c.1408), of York.
FROUD, Thomas.
FROWYK, Thomas (d.1449), of South Mimms, Mdx.
FRUYSTHORP, John, of Hertfordshire.
FRYE see also BARBOUR, Thomas
FRYE, Richard (d.1392), of Winchester, Hants.
FRYE, Robert I, of Shoreham, Suss.
FRYE, Robert II (d.1435), of Wilts.
FRYE, William (d.1427), of Feniton, Devon.
FRYS, Richard, of Marlborough, Wilts.
FULBOURN, William (d.c.1441), of Fulbourn St. Vigors, Cambs.
FULBROKE, John, of Bristol.
FULLER, Gregory, of Midhurst, Suss.
FURSDON, John, of Fursdon in Liskeard, Cornw.
FUST, Richard, of Warnham and Chichester, Suss.
FUYSTER see HARWORTH
FYNCH, Vincent I, of Icklesham and Netherfield, Suss.
FYNCH, Vincent II (d.c.1430), of Icklesham and Netherfield, Suss.
FYNDERNE, William (d.1445), of Childrey, Berks.
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Oral Histories of QOL Researchers
SINET Newsletter
ARQOL Journal
ISQOLS – Springer Book Series
QOL-Related Publications
President's Fund
ISQOLS Conference Education Travel Grant
Research Travel Fund for Women
Endowed Lectures
Edward F. Diener Lecture Fund
Richard J. Estes Lecture Fund
Alex C. Michalos Lecture Fund
Endowed Tracks
Ronald E. Anderson Endowed Track
Valerie Moller Endowed Track
Elizabeth Eckermann Endowed Track
Takashi Inoguchi Endowed Track
Kenneth C. Land Endowed Track
Mahar Mangahas Endowed Track
Rhonda G. Phillips Endowed Track
Daniel Shek-Wofoo Foundation Endowed Track
M. Joseph Sirgy Endowed Track
Award for the Betterment of the Human Condition
Research Fellow Award
Young Scholar Award
Distinguished QOL Researcher Award
Best Annual ARQOL Award
Best Dissertation Award
Best SIR Paper Award
Best JOHS Paper Award
Best JMM Paper Award
Database Resources
Quality-of-Life Indicators
MIQOLS Resources
2021 Conference Call for Abstracts
2021 Conference Registration Fees
2021 Conference Education Grant
ISQOLS WEBINAR:"Designing Meaningful Work during COVID-19: Implications for Managers & the Future of Work"
8:00 AM (PDT)
The webinar is free for all participants.
ISQOLS WEBINAR
"Designing Meaningful Work during COVID-19:
Implications for Managers & the Future of Work"
Pacific Time/
Mountain Time/
This webinar will summarize a series of studies comparing job satisfaction and its determinants across 37 countries, based on data from the most recent wave of the International Social Survey Program. This research explores various work-life balance factors, job autonomy, and meaningful work indicators and the related considerations for managers as they work to design work (including remote work) during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Presented by: Jonathan H. Westover,
Jonathan H. Westover, Ph.D. is a US-based thought leader, entrepreneur, management consultant, author, teacher, and research academic based in Orem, Utah. He serves on a host of nonprofit, community, and association boards and committees and has received numerous awards for his teaching, research, and service to the community. Dr. Westover is a professor and chair of Organizational Leadership in the Woodbury School of Business at Utah Valley University, Academic Director of the UVU Center for Social Impact and the UVU SIMLab, and Faculty Fellow for Ethics in Public Life (previously the Associate Director) in the Center for the Study of Ethics. Dr. Westover has been published widely in academic journals, books, and practitioner publications. He is a regular visiting faculty member in other international graduate business programs.Jonathan is an experienced organizational leadership, people management, and organizational development consultant and managing partner and principle at Human Capital Innovations, LLC). For two decades, he has worked to help transform organizations across the globe. He is also the producer and host of the Human Capital Innovations (HCI) Podcast. Previously, Jonathan was an external consultant with the firm Targeted Learning, and an internal consultant in the Human Resource Development office at Brigham Young University, in the corporate Organizational Development office at InterContinental Hotels, and in the corporate Organizational Development office at LG Electronics in Gumi, South Korea.
The International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies (ISQOLS)
office@isqols.org
ISQOLS
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Dave Chapelle's Block Party
In September 2004, comedian Dave Chappelle took a break from his immensely successful Comedy Central show to stage a free, unpublicised, all-star hip-hop concert in the Clinton Hill neighbourhood of Brooklyn, NY. Inviting fans over the internet, on the street, and even in his family's hometown of Yellow Springs, OH. Chappelle asked filmmaker Michel Gondry to document the event from its inception on through to the performances themselves. The result is Dave Chappelle's Block Party, a concert film that provides not only a sampling of the music on display that September, but also an intimate look at the comedian himself. Gondry's cameras tag along with Chappelle as he visits Ohio, recruits a university marching band to play at the show, and surveys the opinions of Clinton Hill on the show that's about to take place. Along the way, we're introduced to some the comedian's favourite acts, in rehearsals and on-stage: Dead Prez, Jill Scott, Mos Def, The Roots, Erykah Badu, Kanye West, and the surprise reuniting of the Fugees.
Rent 39,00 kr
Buy 45,00 kr
Provocative -- for older teens and adults only.
Dave Chapelle
Sandrew Metronome
© 2006 Block Party Productions, LLC and Kabuki Brothers, LLC. All Rights Reserved
English (Stereo)
Danish (Subtitled), Finnish (Subtitled), Norwegian (Subtitled), Swedish (Subtitled)
The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend a Broken Heart
Films in Music Documentaries
Roxette Diaries
Anonymitetspolitik Brug af cookies Betingelser for brug Salg og refundering Juridisk tekst Oversigt
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Home/Conference/2017 IEA Global Conference
Transformative Practices
San Antonio, Texas, USA
Program PDF
Transformation through Movement: Increase Emotional Intelligence with the Embodied Enneagram
By Andrea Isaacs|2019-05-07T11:11:23+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
One of the purposes of "transformation" is to return to a state of wholeness and back to your "true nature." That requires having the emotional range and flexibility to respond to challenging people and circumstances in whatever way best serves your highest and best self, [...]
The Enneagram: A Transformational Coaching Tool
By Sandra Hogan|2019-05-07T11:11:24+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
The point of using the Enneagram in coaching is to help transform ego structures, to awaken and inhabit your highest levels of development. This very introspective and interactive session will teach you how to use the Enneagram in coaching by practicing a proven, step-by-step process. [...]
Type and Social Structures: A Collaborative Exploration of Race Through Three Narratives
By Lynda Roberts|2019-07-06T00:06:37+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
The Enneagram community stands at the apex of global transformation. We are uniquely situated to contribute to the healthy, harmonious integration of diverse ways of being in the global village. Invited guest Peter LeDuff joins Lynda Roberts and Dr RaShon in a collaborative engagement in [...]
What’s the Solution to Your Problem? Ask the Living Enneagram
By Joseph Benton Howell|2019-05-07T11:11:24+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Albert Einstein said, "No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it." So how do we raise consciousness above the level of the problem? In this workshop, discover solutions from the head center of intelligence. Yes, real solutions emerge, for [...]
The Enneagram and Mindfulness: A Path of Transformation
By Renee Rosario|2019-05-07T11:11:23+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
The Enneagram as a map of human consciousness unites exquisitely with the transformative power of Mindfulness practice. Mindfulness helps us to meet things as they are rather than simply through the projection of our type's perspective. As a threecentered practice, it helps us to: witness [...]
The WID Factor – Why I Do What I Do
By Patrick Kayrooz|2019-05-07T11:11:25+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Have you ever thought, "Why do I do what I do?" When it comes to decision making - are you ruled by your heart, your head or your gut? All three play a factor, and one will dominate your personality and influence the way you [...]
Making Friends With and Integrating Our Shadow Using the 4 R’s
By Jerome Wagner|2019-05-07T11:11:23+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Whenever we identify with idealized aspects of our persona (me), we tend to disidentify with our opposite shadow attributes (notme). For example, if we think of ourselves as being loving and kind, then we don't want to be thought of as being selfish and cruel. [...]
Enneatools for Love
By Sarah Walston|2019-05-07T11:11:25+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Are you blocking yourself from the love you want? The Enneagram offers a powerful map for understanding where we lose connection in love and why. But insight alone doesn't allow us to drop our defenses or forget our vulnerabilities. We need support in finding our [...]
What is the Sensation of that? Somatic Focusing and the Enneagram
By Devon Carter|2019-07-06T00:06:55+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Are we allowing the full range of our human experience? Can we develop our capacity to access a more full experience? How would our life be enhanced if we could? From an early age, our thoughts, emotions, and even our ideas begin as sensory experience [...]
Reframing and the 3D Slideshow Technique: Changing Enneagram Patterns in Subtle, Powerful Ways
By Tom Condon|2019-05-07T11:11:25+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
A workshop to help you translate the Enneagram's theories into fruitful, effective practice. I will offer two unique, solutionfocused approaches to applying the Enneagram's insights. The techniques will benefit anyone using the Enneagram for personal or professional growth as well as those who use the [...]
AWP Growth Model – Getting “Un-stuck” Through the Centers
By Peter McGaugh|2019-07-06T00:07:17+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
From our experience and observations as Warriors for the Human Spirit and Integral Coaches, we have noticed and identified common underlying patterns and places where people tend to stumble or get "stuck" on particular issues or topics places where development stalls, connections break down, and [...]
“Back to the Future” and “Bolero” – Naranjo’s Magic for Balancing the Centers
By Sara Davis|2019-05-07T11:11:25+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
In this session, you will be treated to one of the most profoundly transformative processes from Claudio Naranjo's SAT (Seekers After Truth) program. First I will help you discover the "crazy ideas" that you are holding deep in your psyche. These generally form along Enneagram [...]
Dealing With Difficult People: The Real Art of Negotiation
By Patrick O'Leary|2019-05-07T11:11:23+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Conflict is the inevitable consequence of personality. Each of us has a unique perspective that develops from the interaction of our genetic traits and our life experience. We learn to think, solve problems and communicate in a fashion that produces apparent results. But, the results [...]
The Instinctual Drives and Inner Work
By John Luckovich|2019-05-07T11:11:25+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Instinct is the most basic organization of awareness in an organism. More than mere survival strategies, instincts are the platform for our physical, psychological, and spiritual well-being. However, the Personality becomes identified with these drives, confusing the survival of our organism with the survival of [...]
Instinctual Leadership: Balancing the Three Instinctual Domains
By Mario Sikora|2019-05-07T11:11:23+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Many people have experienced how knowledge of the Enneagram can be helpful at work and in leadership, but few understand how to apply knowledge of the three instinctual biases to the same topics. Truly understanding the instinctual biases can be just as important as understanding [...]
“Back on Track” – Practices to Identify and Transform the Derailers of Each Type into More Effective Patterns
By Maria Jose Munita|2019-05-07T11:11:25+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
There are some predictable work-related behavioral patterns, or derailers, that tend to undermine the performance of each of the types. These derailers occur when the stress and challenges of work interact with a thinking pattern and an emotional need. This interaction results in a pattern [...]
Poetry and the Enneagram – The Power to Transform
By Karen Van Zino|2019-05-07T11:11:23+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Keats called poetry a "remembrance," Faust a "distillation," and Wordsworth a "preservation" of everything which humanity loves, works for, and hopes to maintain. In other words, poetry touches all Three Centers of Human Intelligence: Body, Heart, and Mind. Engaging with a poem can awaken the [...]
Embodying and Integrating the Seven Centers of Intelligence
By Deborah Ooten|2019-07-06T00:07:31+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
The Enneagram of Personality teaches three centers of intelligence, the mind, heart, and body. Gurdjieff's original system taught the Enneagram as a system of transformation through awakening and integrating the seven centers of intelligence: instinctual, moving, sexual, emotional, intellectual, higher emotional, and higher intellectual. To [...]
Writing Your Enneagram Journey
By Melanie Bell|2019-05-07T11:11:24+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
We all have stories about who we are, shaped by our personality and experiences. These narratives are important because they influence our behavior and define the limits of what we can do. In order to make sense of our life, we tell ourselves a story [...]
Bringing It Home: Integrating your Conference Experience
By Terry Saracino|2019-05-07T11:11:26+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
This session is a unique opportunity to integrate all the information and practices shared during the Conference. Terry will begin with a brief overview of the use of the Enneagram as a transformative tool emphasizing the importance of practices and methods in the arenas of [...]
Triads – the Foundation of Transformational Practice
By Mike Block|2019-05-07T11:11:24+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Being stuck in one's type is one of the most common problems in the Enneagram culture. The theme of this year's conference speaks to this problem. In the rush to find one's individual place in the Enneagram circle, some critical information may be passed over. [...]
Terry Saracino 2017 2017 IEA Global Conference San Antonio, Texas, USA [memberonly label="Attended 2017 IEA Global,Streamed 2017 IEA Global"] [/memberonly]
Recovery and Transformation
By Anne Geary|2019-07-06T00:07:59+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Each of us is recovering from something in our lives. Many find themselves addicted to substance or process addictions. And whether or not we have a "socially unacceptable addiction," each of us, as we navigate our way through life and awaken to see the strategies [...]
Blunt, Honest, or Kind? What Really Works?
By Marika Borg|2019-05-07T11:11:26+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
The Enneagram is a potent tool with the power to change people's lives. Like a surgeon's knife, in skilled hands it has the power to heal - but used without skill it can leave wounds. According to the latest research into human relationships, kindness is [...]
Deepening the Wisdom of the Belly
By Philip Shepherd|2019-05-07T11:11:22+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Shepherd is recognized as an international authority on embodiment. He is the creator of The Embodied Present Process (TEPP), a unique method for moving into wholeness that heals the frantic, restless pace of the intelligence in the head by uniting it with the deep, present [...]
The Arising of Conscience: The Enneagram and the Turning of the Heart
By Russ Hudson|2019-05-07T11:11:24+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
It is widely known in spiritual work that genuine transformation is a transformation of the heart. Yet, the traditional teachings behind the Enneagram make it clear that this can only happen through an awakening in the body and in the mind as well. It takes [...]
Where the Enneagram, Emotional Freedom and HeartMath Science Meet: Empowering Our Authentic Selves
By Sheva Carr|2019-05-07T11:11:22+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Sheva Carr is the founding Executive Director of HeartAmbassadors and The Fyera Foundation, as well as the Co-Vice President of Pathways To Peace, a United Nations Peace Messenger Organization, and heads their delegation to the UN. She speaks to people all over the world on [...]
Enneagram Improv
By Ann Paquin|2019-07-06T00:08:09+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Enneagram Improv is an experiential transformative mash-up, combining the wisdom of the Enneagram with the playful games of Improvisation. We'll explore the Enneagram Types through specially designed improv exercises that invite us to play in the realms of the whole human experience. We'll see the [...]
Working through your Ennea-type: The Power of Inquiry
By Sandra Maitri|2019-05-07T11:11:22+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Inquiry is a powerful practice for diving deeper into what's actually here, the reality of the present moment. It is a practice that allows us to penetrate the Enneagram of personality so the type patterns, the Virtues and Holy Ideas all become accessible experientially, not [...]
Enneagram and Race – Rebuilding The Bridge That Bias Broke
By Deborah Threadgill Egerton|2019-07-06T00:08:20+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
Is it possible not see what is happening in the world around us? Is it logical to engage in doing "the work" of the Enneagram and not put this work into practice for the good of all humanity? Bias has existed from the beginning of [...]
The Enneagram, Pair Bonding & Intimacy: Working with the Fears and Desires of the 9 Enneagram Types by Instinct in Intimacy
By Katherine Chernick Fauvre|2019-05-07T11:11:22+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
The purpose of this presentation is to explore the relationship between the Enneagram, the Instinctual Types and Intimacy. A survey was designed to investigate the manner in which the three instinctual drives influence and affect how each of the nine Enneagram Types form, develop, and [...]
Follow the Yellow Brick Road
By Kathryn Grant|2019-07-06T00:06:15+00:00July 21st, 2017|Categories: 2017 IEA Global Conference, Audio|
"The Wonderful Wizard of Oz" - something universal within this story resonates deeply and explains its immense popularity. Peter and Kathryn have been fascinated by the story for decades and for this workshop have pooled their experiences to take you on a journey of transformation [...]
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Bombardier and Chorus Sign Purchase Agreement for up to 23 Q400 NextGen Aircraft and Launch New Extended Service Program for Dash 8-300 Aircraft
Low Resolution 68 Kb High Resolution 9.3 Mb
Q400 aircraft to be operated by Jazz under the Air Canada Express brand
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft and Chorus Aviation Inc. (‘Chorus’) (TSX: CHR.B CHR.A), parent company of Jazz Aviation LP (‘Jazz’) announced today that they have signed a firm purchase agreement whereby Chorus will acquire 13 Q400 NextGen aircraft and options for 10 Q400 NextGen aircraft. Once delivered, the aircraft will be operated by Jazz under the Air Canada Express banner. The Companies also announced Chorus and Jazz as the launch customer and operator for the industry’s first Dash 8-300 aircraft Extended Service Program that will extend the life of the Dash 8-300 turboprop to 120,000 flight cycles from the original 80,000 flight cycles.
Q400 NextGen Aircraft Purchase Agreement
Based on the list price of the Q400 NextGen aircraft, the firm order is valued at approximately $424 million US, and could increase to $758 million US should Chorus exercise all its options.
“The addition of these new Q400 NextGen aircraft will continue Jazz’s fleet renewal program that began in 2011, and provide unit operating costs that are amongst the lowest of any regional aircraft,” said Joseph Randell, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chorus and Jazz. “The addition of these efficient aircraft is an important component of our cost reduction plans and the amended Capacity Purchase Agreement (‘CPA’) with Air Canada. The Q400 NextGen airliner has proven to be an outstanding complement to our exclusive fleet of Bombardier turboprops and regional jets.”
“We are delighted that Chorus and Jazz continue to put their confidence in the Q400 NextGen turboprop, relying on the aircraft to provide service from coast to coast in Canada and the United States,” said Mike Arcamone, President, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft. “With its unbeatable economics, in-service performance and excellent passenger comfort, the Q400 NextGen aircraft is widely regarded as the proven choice for North American carriers looking for large turboprop aircraft and it continues to be a segment in which we’ve retained 100 per cent market share.”
Dash 8-300 Aircraft Extended Service Program
The Extended Service Program will extend the service life of Jazz’s Dash 8-300 aircraft by 50 per cent, or approximately 15 years. The agreement covers a minimum of 19 aircraft and the program will begin in early 2017. The Dash 8-300 aircraft is an efficient 50-seat turboprop with attractive operating economics that is well suited to meet regional passenger demand across Canada.
“We are the world’s largest operator of Dash 8 aircraft,” continued Mr. Randell. “Our collaboration with Bombardier goes back many years and we’re very pleased to be the launch customer for this innovative program that will keep this valuable asset in the Jazz fleet. This 50-seat turboprop is well suited to many of the regional markets we serve under the Air Canada Express banner, and it’s difficult to beat its economics.”
“The Dash 8-300 aircraft has been a top-performing turboprop since its launch over two decades ago and it remains very much in demand today. Our Extended Service Program will enable operators to further take advantage of the Dash 8-300aircraft’s economic and operational value,” said Todd Young, Vice President, Customer Services, Bombardier Commercial Aircraft.
The Extended Service Program will be accomplished through several structural and engineering analyses, applying fatigue and test data that has been accumulated on the Dash 8-300 aircraft. It will be initiated through a Service Bulletin that will make reference to a new Maintenance Program Supplement. As launch operator, Jazz will incorporate the Service Bulletin and Maintenance Program Supplement and arrange for the replacement of some structural and systems components as identified by the Service Bulletin.
In 2009, Bombardier successfully launched the Dash 8-100 aircraft Extended Service Program alongside Widerøe’s Flyveselskap AS of Norway as launch customer for that aircraft type.
About Q400 NextGen Aircraft
Optimized for short-haul operations and capable of seating up to 86 passengers, the Q400 NextGen aircraft is a large, fast, quiet and fuel-efficient turboprop. It provides the perfect balance of passenger comfort and operating economics with a reduced environmental footprint.
The Q400 NextGen aircraft is the fastest new-technology turboprop, providing both jet speed and turboprop fuel efficiency. The aircraft’s economics and operational flexibility allow airlines to profitably deploy it in a variety of ways to serve typical short-haul turboprop routes, as well as medium-haul jet markets.
Q400 NextGen aircraft are available with an optional dual-class interior for enhanced passenger comfort; an optional extra-capacity configuration with up to 86 seats for high-density markets; and a cargo-passenger combi configuration.
Including Chorus’ order, Bombardier has booked firm orders for 534 Q400 NextGen aircraft. Worldwide, Q400 and Q400 NextGen aircraft have transported more than 355 million passengers and have logged over 5.7 million flight hours and more than 6.1 million take-offs and landings. The Q400 and Q400 NextGen aircraft program includes some 50 owners and operators in over 40 countries on six continents. Long recognized as a high-value asset by operators, the Q400 aircraft is now also attracting growing interest from the leasing community.
About Chorus
Headquartered in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Chorus was incorporated on September 27, 2010 and is a dividend-paying holding company with various interests including Jazz Aviation Holdings Inc. and Chorus Aviation Holdings Inc.
Jazz Aviation Holdings Inc. holds all of Chorus’ business interests associated with the CPA with Air Canada which includes Jazz Aviation LP (‘Jazz’), Jazz Aircraft Financing Inc. (‘JAFI’), and Jazz Leasing Inc. (‘JLI’). JAFI and JLI were established for the sole purpose of acquiring and financing Q400 aircraft and related equipment, and leasing them to Jazz for use in the CPA.
Chorus Aviation Holdings Inc. is a holding company to facilitate diversification of Chorus’ business, such as the establishment of Chorus Airport Services Inc. which provides airport handling services.
Chorus is traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbols of CHR.A and CHR.B
For more information, visit www.chorusaviation.ca.
Bombardier is the world’s only manufacturer of both planes and trains. Looking far ahead while delivering today, Bombardier is evolving mobility worldwide by answering the call for more efficient, sustainable and enjoyable transportation everywhere. Our vehicles, services and, most of all, our employees are what make us a global leader in transportation.
Bombardier is headquartered in Montréal, Canada. Our shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange (BBD) and we are listed on the Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America Indexes. In the fiscal year ended December 31, 2013, we posted revenues of $18.2 billion. News and information are available at bombardier.com or follow us on Twitter @Bombardier.
Images of Q400 NextGen aircraft in Air Canada Express’ livery are posted with this press release at www.bombardier.com.
Bombardier, Dash 8, CRJ, NextGen, Q400 and The Evolution of Mobility are trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries.
Marianella de la Barrera
Bombardier Commercial Aircraft
marianella.delabarrera@aero.bombardier.com
Debra Williams
Chorus Aviation, Toronto, Ontario
dwilliams@chorusaviation.ca
Manon Stuart
Chorus Aviation, Halifax, Nova Scotia
mstuart@chorusaviation.ca
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The dynamics of spatial anticipation in pigeons and rats
Daniel Ian Brooks, University of IowaFollow
10.17077/etd.21t0s5q2
Wasserman, Edward A
Freeman, John
Hazeltine, Eliot
Cole, Kelly
The analysis of the pre-choice behaviors in an operant conditioning task led to the observation that pigeons often produced anticipatory pecks that were directed at the location of their next response. Despite the possible utility of this behavior for understanding basic behavioral processes in animal learning and the widespread use of touchscreen displays to present pictorial stimuli, there has been little evaluation of the spatial distribution of touchscreen responding. So, we sought to investigate the mechanisms that account for this anticipatory behavior, whether this behavior changes over time, and how general this phenomenon might be. To answer these and other related questions, we report in a series of eleven studies and two re-analyzed datasets a detailed characterization of this anticipatory discrimination behavior in both pigeons and rats.
In the first chapter, we review relevant literature related to the phenomenon of anticipatory behavior and prospective coding. In the second chapter, we outline a basic three-link discrimination paradigm, which we adapted from a procedure originally developed to study spatial anticipation in autoshaping. This simple procedure afforded us the ability to measure responses during a task that engages prospective processing.
In the third chapter, we evaluate two possible mechanistic explanations for this anticipatory behavior; namely, that animals are motivated to produce anticipatory responses because of a shorter temporal route to reinforcement or because of the spatial and temporal contiguity of the stimuli used in the task. In the fourth chapter, we evaluate several spatial parameters that might importantly influence the distribution of these anticipatory responses. In the fifth chapter, we re-evaluate data from two previously published projects to assess the generality of the observed phenomenon and to evaluate the possibility that the anticipatory responses are a fractional reproduction of the terminal response.
Finally, in the sixth chapter, we discuss the implications for the presented work in several fields. We also sketch a computational framework for the presented data using a Dynamic Field Theory model, attempting to show how the prospective representation of an upcoming spatial location might guide anticipatory behavior.
xii, 240 pages
Copyright 2010 Daniel Ian Brooks
Brooks, Daniel Ian. "The dynamics of spatial anticipation in pigeons and rats." PhD (Doctor of Philosophy) thesis, University of Iowa, 2010.
https://doi.org/10.17077/etd.21t0s5q2
Psychology Commons
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Internship experience a win win for iSchool interns, COUNTRY Financial
Internship experience a win-win for iSchool interns, COUNTRY Financial
Monday November 5 2018
Tanvi Malhotra, Julia Hart, and Anmol Gandhi
When Julia Hart, site leader for the COUNTRY Financial DigitaLab, is in need of interns, she looks to the iSchool for student talent. Hart's first hire for the DigitaLab, which was launched at the University of Illinois Research Park in October 2017, was MS/IM student Anmol Gandhi. Gandhi still works at the lab as a data analyst, along with fellow MS/IM student Tanvi Malhotra. The students' job duties include predictive modeling, machine learning, text mining, and data visualizations as well as data modeling and research.
Since hiring Gandhi and Malhotra, Hart has not been disappointed, describing their performance as "outstanding." This past summer, Gandhi was nominated for the Research Park's Most Outstanding Graduate Student Intern, and both students were nominated for Most Competent and Collaborative Team awards.
"Anmol has been instrumental in leading the data team, developing processes related to data within the DigitaLab and creating a framework in which a foundation is being built for predictive analytics and machine learning, with a Neural-Net Data Matrix Model," Hart said. "This model has spearheaded conversations related to data governance and provided a basis on which to extend thinking related to data in the insurance industry moving forward."
The DigitaLab has become "like a second home" for Gandhi. He enjoys not only the data-heavy projects in fraud analytics and customer retention modeling but also the opportunity to give back to society and volunteer for different causes.
"Currently I am a lead on several projects, so I talk to business sponsors and stakeholders with respect to project requirements, updates, and timelines," Gandhi said. "It's a great opportunity for me, as I am getting exposure to project management early in my career."
Malhotra, who started at the DigitaLab this past summer, found her internship to be the right balance between building machine learning models and associating a business value with them. Although her knowledge of the insurance industry was limited at the start, she came to realize how the models she was helping to build could save the company money, time, and effort.
"My iSchool classes equipped me to not only build the machine learning models but also to query data and apply [SQL] joins to create relevant data sets, clean messy data, translate a model into graphs and visualizations, and document the results," Malhotra said. "I learned about a confusion matrix in class, but the business value associated to each term in the matrix was something new I learned at the lab, and we had teams from the home office coming in every week to get us acquainted with that concept."
Hart, who is also an adjunct lecturer at the iSchool, has recruited from the School for the majority of her lab's data team.
"I have worked with the iSchool for a number of years in the past and am aware of the quality of the programs, the types of coursework, and the talent of the students," Hart said. "The skills that I was looking for in our interns included both technical and nontechnical—focusing on communication, initiative, and teamwork as well as programming skills and a good understanding of data science. I believe this is why the COUNTRY Financial DigitaLab has had great success with students from the iSchool."
Updated on December 3, 2018
BIG wraps up another successful semester of student consulting
This semester, students in the Business Information Group (BIG), the student consultancy group associated with Associate Professor Yoo-Seong Song's Applied Business Research class (IS 540), worked with clients in the areas of facial recognition technology, digital healthcare, telemetry-based marketing automation, cybersecurity, and market entry strategy.
Roberto defends dissertation
Doctoral candidate K.R. Roberto successfully defended their dissertation, "Description Is a Drag (and Vice Versa): Classifying Trans Identities," on December 11. Their committee included Associate Professor Kathryn La Barre (chair and research director), Associate Professor Carol Tilley; Toby Beauchamp, Gender and Womens Studies, University of Illinois; and Melissa Adler, Faculty of Information & Media Studies, University of Western Ontario.
Sanchez uses coursework and experience to kickstart post-graduate plans
BS/IS student Bastian Sanchez has used the knowledge he gained from iSchool courses and campus internships to acquire post-graduate employment. He recently moved to Seattle to begin work as a systems support engineer with Legwork, a software development company.
Sanchez joined the BS/IS program as a senior after taking several iSchool courses. He has especially enjoyed learning about network systems and security.
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The Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi
Posted on June 26, 2013 by Hawaiian Kingdom
We’ve received many inquiries requesting commentary on the Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi because of the recent news conference at the United Nations Indigenous Forum as well as local news coverage. The purpose for this blog entry is to correct historical inaccuracies especially in light of legal matters now before the United Nations General Assembly, the International Criminal Court, and State of Hawai‘i Courts.
The term “Atooi” is not a Hawaiian word, but rather a British word spelled out with British phonics. The word “Attooi” was first uttered by the crew of Captain James Cook’s Third Voyage when his ships arrived in the Islands in 1778. Today we call these islands the Hawaiian Islands, but in 1778 there were four separate and distinct kingdoms: Islands of Kaua‘i and Ni‘ihau under Ka‘eo; Islands of O‘ahu and Molokai under Kahahana; Islands of Maui, Lanai and Kaho‘olawe under Kahekili; and the Island of Hawai‘i under Kalaniopu‘u.
Cook was tasked by the British Admiralty to map the Pacific Islands and find the northwest passage that could link the north Pacific Ocean with the north Atlantic Ocean. Cook was not only a British explorer, but also cartographer, which is a map maker. Cook sailed north from the Island of Borabora in the Society Islands on December 9, 1777 and came upon the Island of O‘ahu on a Sunday on January 19, 1778, and soon after came upon the island of Kaua‘i the next day. His first encounter with the natives in canoes took place off the coast of Kaua‘i, where they bartered fish and vegetables for nails and iron. According to Cook’s journal (p. 221), “Their language differed from that of every other people we had before visited; but we had learnt to converse by signs, and very soon made ourselves understood.” It was probably at this point that the natives were asked what was the name of the island in order to map it, and to the British ear they spelt what they heard using British phonics–Atooi (Kaua‘i). It wasn’t until after 1820 that Hawaiian phonics was formally established through collaboration of the missionaries and Hawaiian chiefs.
The first publication of the island names using British phonics was published in London in 1781 titled “Journal of Captain Cook’s Last Voyage to the Pacific Ocean on Discovery,” identifying the Island of Hawai‘i as “O-why-e,” the Island of Maui as “Maw-whee,” the Island of O‘ahu as “O-aa-ah,” and the island of Ni‘ihau as “Ne-hu.” Three years later, the island names were refined using British phonics in the first map of the islands published in London in 1784. On this map the islands were named oWhyhee (Hawai‘i), Mowee (Maui), Tahoorowa (Kaho‘olawe), Ranai (Lanai), Morotoi (Molokai), Woahoo (O‘ahu), Atooi (Kaua‘i), and Oneeheow (Ni‘ihau). Later maps using the British names of the islands were published in the French and German languages.
On the Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi website, it is claimed that “Atooi” is translated in the native language to mean “Light of God,” but this is not correct because “Atooi” is not a Hawaiian word, but rather a British version of a Hawaiian word spelled using British phonics. The website also claims “Atooi was the ancient name for, Hawaii, the head [po’o] of the Polynesian Triangle.” This is also not correct because the word is not ancient, but rather a British invention by Captain Cook’s crew.
It has also been commonly stated that Kaua‘i was never conquered by Kamehameha. Yes this is true, but it was conquered by Ka‘ahumanu who was serving at the time as Regent while Kamehameha II was in London. After Kahekili invaded and conquered the O‘ahu Kingdom in 1783, there were no longer four separate kingdoms, but now three. In 1795, Kamehameha, successor to Kalaniopu‘u, invaded and conquered the Maui Kingdom, and in 1810, Kaumuali‘i, successor to Ka‘eo of the Kaua‘i Kingdom, peacefully acknowledged Kamehameha as his superior, thereby consolidating all of the former kingdoms into the Kingdom of the Sandwich Islands. On August 8, 1824, the Kaua‘i chiefs unsuccessfully rebelled under the leadership of George Humehume, successor and son of Kaumuali‘i, the late King of Kaua‘i. Humehume was removed to the Island of O‘ahu under the watch of Kalanimoku, the Prime Minister, and all of the Kaua‘i chiefs were dispersed throughout the islands and the lands were seized by Hawai‘i Islands chiefs.
Additional blog entries will address misinformation on the Hawaiian national flag, the United Nations Forum on Indigenous Peoples, and the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories.
This entry was posted in National by Hawaiian Kingdom. Bookmark the permalink.
110 thoughts on “The Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi”
kawehikanui11 on June 26, 2013 at 11:00 pm said:
Aloha, OMG! Dane has made himself the next Osama Binladen/Muamar Ghadafi/Hussein and siding with the US, to make us Indians??? and trying to cut out a piece of the pie for his kingdom, basically throws a wrench into the good work that Dr. Sai and others are doing, even on the UN level.
Time for a meeting Dr. Sai…think about it.
Kawehi
Doreene on June 27, 2013 at 1:27 am said:
Who is Dane?
Dutchy on June 28, 2013 at 4:32 pm said:
Dayne, uses his Hawaiian name “Aleka Aipolani” and tattoo’s his face to make his claims as the Ali’i Niu of the Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi to appear more legitimate. He claims that “Atooi” was the ancient name for Hawaii, the Head (Po’o) of the Polynesian Triangle. He even goes on to tell a story of a kingdom that never existed because as the post and true history indicates “Atooi” is not even an ancient Hawaiian or Polynesian word. It is simply a British word, using British phonics, that was created by Captain James Cook to describe the island of Kaua’i as he was trying to map and place names to each of the Hawaiian Islands during his voyages as a mapper for the British Government. He is not the only one who is claiming to be the next Ali’i Nui, but it is clear that someone was watching too much Disney Channel.
Azariah Primacio on October 29, 2013 at 5:36 pm said:
Dutchy I believe you have to do more research for yourself instead of just taking Dr. sais say on this. Everything you just read you put into your comment…
dkekaualua on October 16, 2015 at 11:17 pm said:
Perhaps Dutchy is the one that watches Disney Channel and needs to be ‘clear’ that Disney has NOTHING to do with this conversation. I am an Atooi citizen complete with an ID. However, as much as I support the lahui Atooi, I think that the Po’o, whomever they are, are NOT doing anything more progressive. More frequently speaking out, sharing their mana’o with all the others that ARE. Between every Po’o wannabe there is great value in combining every bit of mana’o that circulates, removing the incorrect and ohhhhh so slowly moving upward and forward in the bid for INDEPENDENCE, aMERIMEN done and outa hea. Having transcribed 80 of 500 ku’e Petition pages to that completed and circulating piece of truth and integrity AND going door to door to see who is and who is not a Hawaiian Kingdom Patriot. Those that sign the Ku’e will be noted as Nationals, those that do not sign, receives a green card. Does anyone know where robbing danner lives, i’ld personally like to deliver her ohana 90-day to remove themselves or be later arrested for trying to aquire ‘chief slithering snake’ status American tribe DANNERHOLA village, here in the Kingdom of Atooi.
Kamohoalii on November 21, 2019 at 4:14 pm said:
There Is One Kingdom Of Hawai’I and It Belongs To The Royal Descendants Of Kamehameha
And is Backed By Our Hawaiian Kingdom Constituion and Not The United States
Our Laws Of Hawaii and Our Constituion has Nothing to do with The Fake State Or America
Kalani on February 22, 2019 at 8:46 pm said:
Its called Romanization, not “British Phonics”. And its actually literally “Hawaiian Phonics”, as the Hawaiian language is a 100% Phonetic, Oral Language. Atooi is no different from Atui, and both are equally correct Romanizations, equally correct spellings and equally Hawaiian, because nothing which is written is actually Hawaiian. And even if it was spelled Aaattoooooooiiii, it would still be the exact same meaning in Hawaiian, a romanization of an Actual Hawaiian word, which was only Oral.
You don’t seem to know what you are talking about, and seem to simply be slandering and attacking for the sake of being a fvckwit.
Joseph on October 12, 2019 at 4:49 pm said:
Amene palala that’s all it is and the scary truth to this day wether it is on Mauna Kea or not there is hawaiians who is getting paid or compensated by OHA and the State of Hawai to mislead other hawaiians and that is the real treason. Atooi stands to bring back the kingdom of Hawaii.
Kalanikumai Ka Maka Uli'uli 'O Na Ali'i Hanohano on August 28, 2014 at 5:46 pm said:
“Ano ‘ai, Welina me ke Aloha oukou,
E kala mai i’au, ke olu’olu ‘oe, aka na’e, he li’i mea kapakahi II loko “o keia mo’olelo loa’a. In recounting Kaua’i’s history, of when Kaumuali’i “acknowledged” Kamehameha “Ekahi’s superiority, please note that Kamehameha “Ekahi’s reply was to tell Kumuali’i to return and rule his Island, declining any deposment or abdication, and not “accepting” ceded Authority. It was not until after Kamehameha “Ekahi’s death that Ka’ahumanu in attempting to consolidate power as acting Regent, came to Kaua’i, “married” Kaumuali’i (as well as later marrying his son Humehume), and promenaded the Union touring the Islands to “validate” her qualifications.
After Kaumuali’i died (of suspected posioning), and Humehume was likewise discarded, Ka’ahumanu orchestrated the reassignment of Kaua’i’s governance to Chiefs loyal to the regime. Some Chiefs were hunted down. Humehume was “drafted” by Chiefs loyal to Kaua’i’s independance to assume his rightful leadership role, ending in their defeat by superior forces. At least one Chief, Nakapa’ahu Kailipoloahilani (Ali’i Nui of Koloa moku & first half-cousin to the Kamehameha sons) was appointed as Ilamoku under the Kingdom and was a local Authority called on to witness and testify in the Great Mahele hearings as to the validity of applicants claims. He became one of the principals organizing the ‘Hui” purchacing Maha’ulepu for a economic land base to sustain local Hawaiians. More specifiic details, more accurate knowledge- Imua
TimReis on August 28, 2014 at 6:55 pm said:
I read it was Liholiho that came to Kauai and kidnapped Kaumualii, after touring the island. I believe it had to do with a letter sent to Liholiho, from Kaumualii, referring to him as king of the windward islands. This implied that Kauai was not under Liholiho’s control. Prompting Liholiho and Kaahumanu to secure the island, to obtain protectorate status from Britan, as was Kamehameha’s wish.
That is how I understand it, but then again our history tells us you can’t believe everything you read. Gotta fact check.
Kalanikumai Ka Maka'uli'uli ' Na Ali'i Hanohano on August 29, 2014 at 8:18 pm said:
Aloha nā Hoahānau,
Māhalo nui no ka manaʻo ua mahele ʻia I ka mea ʻO ka wā ua hala ʻia.
Said letter, substantiating the claim that Kaumuali’i had retained dominion over Kaua’i, Ni’ihau (Lehua, Kaula & Nihoa), as the “Windward”Islands, precipitated the decision of Liholiho (under the counsel and direction of Ka’ahumanu), to agree to her strategy which she employed in sailing on the barge to Kaua’i, “inviting” Kaumuali’i aboard, exercising her position and voracious appetite,staging a pagentry of a “wedding”, in her quest to acquire greater “Mana”, consuming Kaua’i, sailing to Maui to display her new “Kane”, then consuming the “mana” of Humehume, marrying, then discarding him as well. Her prowess is undeniable.
As a youth, Liholiho visited Kaua’i, traveling from hana lei Bay overland to Koloa, to meet with Nakapa’ahu, whose mother, “Ali’i Wahine Auhea” (granddaughter of Kamakahelei’s older sister, Huleihulei), was also half-sister to Liholiho’s mother, Keopu’okalani. Her kane was Nahinu.
Nakapa’ahu’s sister, Napihe, was Ali’i Nui of the Moku of Makaweli, situated between Koloa and Waimea.
Napihe, is, I believe, Dane’s ancestress, making him my Hoahanau.
While the name “Kamawailualani” is associated with the Moku of Puna, gaining prominance during the 13th Century with the Tahitian migration’s influence, “Atoo’i”, is a British mangling of what they referred to as the “Sandwich Islands”. Under their rationale, we might as well be referred to as “The Kingdom of Sandwich[ers]. Our Mo’i could be referred to as the Mighty Dagwood. Disneyland indeed.
Our kupuna wisely started the “Chief’s School (1837), so as to groom and educate our potential future leaders so as to ensure proper guidance and leadership of the Lahui. While koko was part of the selection process, to ensure continuiety and heritage, the final selection was based on merit.
A leader arises from the people, not appoints themselves for the people. Of all the Sovereignty groups, the only “group” that has legal standing, the only surviving Institution of the Kindom of Hawaii, formed by Royal Decree in 1865 and has maintained their loyalty and devotion to preserving and perpetuation of traditions, observances, customs and stewardship of Wahi Pana is???
An Order of Merit, formed by Royal Decree, with the intent of addressing the Trust relationship lost between the ‘Aina, the Maka’ainana, and the Ali’i, tearing the fabric of Hawaiian Society, destroying the Unity of Action, with the partitioning of land “ownership”.
After the shameful “Sandlewood” fiasco, impressing forced labor for harvest, leaving to waste, the maintainance of home life, the “Great Mahele” disenfranchised the native population and destroyed the trust relationship and the Unity of the Lahui.
While in favor of “Home Rule”, and an Independant Confederancy or Union, the legal and Pono starting point is to independantly assemble a registry of our constituancy ( U.S. Census Dept claims to have 534,000 citizens claiming Hawaiian ancestry, “Ha Hawaii” estimated over 400,000 Worldwide, while “Kana’iolowalu” only managed to enroll 35,000 during their two million dollar, two year recruitment. They “imported” 90,000 registrants from public records, “Project ‘Ohana” Ha Hawaii, and OHA’s Registry. Their “plan”, along with the Akaka Tribe and Danner clan, is to force a “Convention” drawn from their registry only, to raise Deligates to “Draft” a Governing Document, that will surplant the existing, legitimate Constitution of the Kingdom of Hawaii, under suspended Occupation for the last 121 years.
Scotland seeks and soon will achieve Home Rule and Sovereignty. Poland, Israel, Kuwait, Iraq, Tonga, South Africa, and the list goes on, of formerly illegally Occupied Nations who have emerged from subjugation.
Only by making it unprofitable and politically disadvantageous, can we emerge from under the exploitation of our people, land and resources. As (soon to be former) Governor Abercrombie once said in addressing Congress, “it’s [Hawaii], about Money, Land, and Assets”. Until it becomes unprofitable and a loss, they will continue to mine exploitation until nothing of value to them is left. Then they will dump more refuse, munitions, garbage and excrement upon us, pave us over and resell “luxury” beachfront properties to a new wave of wealth, probably from China.
“Uphold the Kingdom[Lahui],- Uplift the People”,- Inspire the Nation”, three tenets of our patriotism. “Paepae, Kako’o, Ho’oulu”.
Mana’o mai Kalanikumai Ka Maka’uli’uli ‘O Na Ali’i Hanohano, Mamo Hawaii, Pua ‘Aina ‘O Koloa, Kona I Kaua’i.
Hakioa on September 2, 2014 at 12:38 am said:
I am a direct descendant of Nahinu and Auhea through Napihee the sister of Nakapa’ahu down through Kanaluaiku and through Paekukui. Dayne is not in our mo’okuauhau. Both lines of Nakapa’ahu and Napihe still live in Makaweli Valley and up through Kahana where the iwi of our kupuna for generations past are still guarded by our ohana. We still live have our lands without electricity or running water. Uncle Sam Kekauoha I have met from the Nakapa’ahu side. I’ve been blessed with the mo’okuauhau from the Nakapa’ahu side but as far as the Napihe line? No Dayne. “Atooi” as our kupuna passed down came from the Europeans interpretation of “Taua’i” or “Kaua’i”. There is no Polynesian language that I know that define Atooi as “The Light of God.”
Kalanikumai Ka Maka'uli'uli ' Na Ali'i Hanohano on September 2, 2014 at 9:41 pm said:
Aloha Hoa’hanau Hakikoa,
‘Ano ‘ai, welina me ke Aloha. E kala mai ia’u no ka mea hewahewa me “Dayne” I loko ‘O ko Mo’okuauhau kaua. Ike wau i ko kaua hoa’hanau “Kona” ke noho ‘ia’ia I Makaweli a me hele o’ia me “Dayne” ma. Mapopo wau I ko kaua hoahanau Glen Kapahu a me “Umi”I noho ‘ia na laua I ka awawa Waimea. Hauoli wau no ike kekahi mau hoahanau mai ko kaua mo’okuauhau Nahinu a me Auhea. Makemake wau ke nana ‘ia ke wahi pana ‘O ko kaua Kupuna Iwi ma mua ‘O ke hala ‘ia’u. ahe mamo wauu, I ke kauoha Kamehameha ‘Ekahi a hana ‘ia’u no ko kakou Lahui Hawaii.
Kalamai for the typos. Fingers to fat. I meant Napihe.
Hakioa on September 3, 2014 at 3:24 am said:
No problem… It’s all good. I’m not too sure who Kona is but our Kona line if it’s the last name traces our line up through Manokalanipo and Kukona. That is from who we had gotten control over the Kona side of Kauai from and how we ended up with the lands we have now. Cousin Glen I see from time to time and Umi & Kaiu I see from time to time they live but a stones throw away from our hale up in Makaweli Valley still on Nakapa’ahu lands. If Akua allows it, maybe we can visit Kahana Valley and sit with Nahinu & Auhea. In the mean time, we need to rally all of our ohana together to move forward in rebuilding our nation. If anyone here has words to share regarding the assertion of the Hawaiian Patriotic League please share. The time to rebuild our nation is long overdue. Ke akua pu… Aloha.
Kalanikumai Ka Makaʻuliʻuli ʻO Na Aliʻi Hanohano on September 4, 2014 at 12:44 am said:
Aloha “Cuz, Iʻd like to take this conversation off of the Blog. Iʻd very much like to continue discussion about the upcoming news from the Hague, what the U.N. is being requested to do, Tauaʻi Kahiko and our Moʻokuauhau. My public visage outside of our Hawaiian Community is as “Branch Harmony”(my nom-de-gurre).Please E-Mail me at .
Kalanikumai
dkekaualua on October 17, 2015 at 6:52 am said:
Mahalo Dasturdly dannerinians in Dannerhola Village with all her corporate buddies of the 501c3 nonprofit IRS related kine, and all the American fedwreckian na’i aupuni garbage that this hui of hand picked ppls resides. I wish I had the capacity to strike them dead in their muddy waters with a ‘cease and desist’ TRO hope these tribal wannabes chief slithering snake Robin ‘Lewinsky’ Danner, lap and table dancing in the oval office.she “speaks for all Hawaiian”.
Mark Perry on March 13, 2016 at 2:29 pm said:
Who were Ali’i Wahine Auhea’s mother and father, please? I would be bery grateful to know.
M.G. Kaholokai Perry
Kalanikumai Ka Maka'uli'uli Puamo'i 'O Nā Aliʻi Hanohano on March 13, 2016 at 10:54 pm said:
ʻO Wahine Aihea, ka mākuakane ‘O Panui; ka mākuahine I Nakoa. ʻO Panui, ka mākuakane I Kānehoalani, ka mākuahine I Memehu. ʻO Nakoa, ka mākuakane I Kekaihewa, ka mākuahine I Huleihulei.
Kō moʻokuauhau ʻou.
Much Mahalo!
Mark GK Perry
Shay Conant on March 25, 2018 at 7:30 am said:
How do you know son much about nakapaahu I want to know more of my family
Kalanikawika on November 21, 2019 at 7:05 pm said:
Is Huleihulei daughter of Kaapuwai?
Good job TimReis, DUE diligence research and removing all the discrepancies as we figure out wth was goin down way back wen…
Chad on December 17, 2017 at 3:09 am said:
I am also a descendant of Nakapaahu Kailipolohani and Kalawaia nui o Kamehameha. My great great grandmother was their eldest daughter. I was also searching for Maunapohaku in Koloa. I have also been trying to plan a walk into Kahana valley one of these days. I have been shown where and how, just wanna do all the right ok’s
elaine on November 22, 2014 at 3:22 am said:
Would like to hear more about this and the conclusions of the validity of claims because it has always seemed there was something peculiar about the Mahele:
“was appointed as Ilamoku under the Kingdom and was a local Authority called on to witness and testify in the Great Mahele hearings as to the validity of applicants claims.”
Kalanikumai Ka Makaʻuliʻuli ʻO Na Aliʻi Hanohano on November 22, 2014 at 7:12 pm said:
Aloha Elaine,
I have studied testimonies from the Mahele hearings held regarding claims substantiated in the Koloa Moku, primarily in Mauliʻli; Paʻa; Mahaʻulepu & Weliweli Ahupuaʻa. Kupuna Nakapaʻahu Kailipoloahilani and his friend Mika (Tax Collector for the Kingdom) both were called on to substantiate native claims. The legacy of shameful exploitation and disenfranchisement of the Mahaʻulepu Hui by the “Kolea” continues to contaminate and invoke disease and decay.
Nakapaʻahu relocated his Kauhale to “Hidden Valley” in Mahaʻulepu where he improved the spring, established Loʻi, and tile to that land was [later],established under “Adverse Possession”. His father Nahinu, held the land where “Maunapohaku Heiau” is located. ???
Mahalo for sharing this. Mahaulepu, if we not careful is destined to house a dairy, ONLY because it is a transplanted billionaire, WHO CAN. Destroying WHAT other amerimen haven’t.
Shay Conant on July 20, 2017 at 8:47 am said:
Awesome I my ancestors are nakapaahu from koloa and waimea
Derekirra Glaskin on August 13, 2015 at 11:33 pm said:
Excuse me Sir, it was Dr Sai who told me to look for the Alii Nui on Kauai your words are bad, not pono @ all and beside that; Look up “Te Moana Nui A Kiva” – The Royal Union Of Pacific Nations – surely 16 King and Queens cant also all be incorrect – also @ the U.N. they all recognize Mr. Aipoalani as Mana Ariki.
You got time for a meeting?
Keanu and several dozen others DUE DILIGENCE in researching the actualities instead of the fabricated bull pucky that is widely being practiced by current Na’i Aupuni kukai, confusions and status challenges towards fedwreckian, when we all know a different story COMBINATION which continues to deny TRUTH AND INTEGRITY in what is reality as opposed to what is a continued FARCE. NEVER a u.s. federal domestic state. plain, simple, and being challenged by UNITED NATIONS, member states of which there are 130=/- that are currently wanting America delegates response “by what means did America acquire Hawaii”? America also found out, when they tried to Expunge UN meeting minutes, now several dozen nation states wondering “what else is America hiding”
Dutchy on June 27, 2013 at 12:38 am said:
There is no need for a meeting with Dayne or anyone else from their organization. It is clear that they used this British word for “Kaua’i” as an opportunity to create their own history of a Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi that never existed, an opportunity to call himself the Ali’i Nui of this imaginary kingdom and yes, the opportunity to grab whatever he could for himself and his followers. Unfortunately, the truth always finds a way to expose itself and as you can see the TRUTH has been revealed. Now it is up to these individuals to stop what they are doing and to not only educate themselves to the truth, but more importantly to now follow the truth. If not they too could be charged with treason for not only going against the true Hawaiian Kingdom Government by in trying to create their own. Just sharing my mana’o……
Kalamai, I meant in the last sentence……”but in trying to create their own”.
kunoa pukaua on September 19, 2013 at 4:54 am said:
I like how you guys pick and point fingers just like AMERICA…..always trying to bring down the KANAKA’s…..we all know that the HAWAIIAN KINGDOM GOVERNMENT RECOGNIZED ALLI NUI ……..BECAUSE AT THE UNITED NATIONS delegation in New York ….I swear ALLI NUI WAS FIRST…….so why HATE FOR…….why not WORK TOGETHER YOU KNOW LOKAHI……..YOU KNOW MOVE FOWARD IMUA……..come on all this talk was going on for YEARS…..now get KOKO…..AUWEI ON U….ATOOI O IOOTA……AKUA GUIDE N PROTECTION IOOTA….
Hawaiian on August 28, 2015 at 9:05 pm said:
I don’t want to join to help pay his wife’s car bills. Sorry braddah.
Ikaika on October 13, 2015 at 8:36 am said:
I was thinking of joining but I found this Mahalo
Ismh, clowns. Git this blog looks for valuable conversation, obviously ridiculous commentary. can’t say nothing nice interesting or truth with integrity DON’T opine at all.
wth does this dumbass comment mean…
Ihikapa Laumaewa on June 27, 2013 at 1:15 am said:
Koe nae 🙂
Kanikapu on June 27, 2013 at 10:17 am said:
‘O Tauai… Atooi… Koe nae, Koe nae…
Kupono on April 12, 2014 at 3:38 pm said:
I used to hear the old folks back in the 60s say “Teia O A’tauai”. Maybe that’s how Cook and his crew came up with Atooi.
Wai'anae Kanaka on April 12, 2014 at 5:12 pm said:
Indeed Taua’i is the island’s name, early europeans wrote it as ‘Atooi’ just like how Lana’i was written ‘Rana’i’ and Kaho’olawe as ‘Taho’orawe’. Our language in written form was changed by missionaries, which changed our pronunciation. We’re speaking our ancestor’s language wrong today.
I remember at a party a few years back our Kupuna were speaking and some guy who had learned to speak in college starting talking to them. One of the Kupuna who was 97 at the time told him to “stop and listen, no talk until you can learn to talk correctly.” I was embarrassed for the poor guy but moving to Hawaii and learning the language unfortunately did not come with learning respect and old school courtesy.
Actually ATOOI is an old aboriginal word and when Cook asked what’s this place it was the noongas who said Atooi. You folk have to go further back into your roots to understand ailana and who and what is a Kanaka Maoli.
Joyce on July 15, 2016 at 9:07 pm said:
Your right cause my auntie’s. Spoke with a T in their Hawaiian language.
Kū on August 2, 2016 at 4:31 am said:
I think everyone needs to understand that we are not speaking ʻŌlelo Hawaiʻi (Hawaiian language) wrong today. As Samuel H. Elbert said “The Polynesian languages, like all languages, constantly changed. Hawaiian, however, did stand as conspicuous example of flourishing simplification.”
You cannot say that the name of Kauaʻi is or was Tauaʻi because there was no written language for the Hawaiians. As Dr. Sai pointed out in this article, “The term ‘Atooi’ is not a Hawaiian word, but rather a British word spelled out with British phonics.” and “It wasn’t until after 1820 that Hawaiian phonics was formally established through collaboration of the missionaries and Hawaiian chiefs.”
“Prior to 1822, Hawaiian language was only an oral language, having no form or system of writing and reading… In 1822, however, a system of writing for Hawaiian language was created and by 1840, Hawaiʻi was nearly universally literate, with a literacy rate of 97%, making Hawaiʻi the most literate country in the world when it was recognized as a sovereign and independent country by France and Great Britain through the signing of the Anglo-Franco Proclamation on November 28, 1843 at the Court of London” – March 12, 2015: Hawaiian Language Competition and Concert
J.K. Pononui on August 3, 2016 at 7:25 pm said:
Ku,
Your Elberts quote lacks source and context. Do remember who published Elberts, and The Hawaiian Dictionary. The Hawaiian Dictionary doesn’t have the word Alodio, nor does it have definitions for the words Awarded and Recorded which you find in the Land Commission Awards. Not to mention where they ripped out the center section naming and describing many of Na Akua after the 3rd revision.
Let me quote Davies 1851 Tahitian dictionary:
Page i:
“while, as the Language of a rude and uncivilized
people, it has, as might be expected, many deficiencies, when compared with the highly cultivated and polished languages of Europe, it has, at the same time, in some respects, a force, a simplicity, and precision, as in the instance
of the personal pronouns, that may perhaps be
superior to them all.”
Page ii:
“Of the above dialects, those that beat· the greatest resemblance to each other are the Hawaiian, the Marquesan, and that of New Zealand; the Tahitian comes next, and differs chiefly from them in abridging the words, and
dropping a great number of consonants, and in discarding entirely the nasal ng, the g, and k.”
Now google search: “kepelino’s hawaiian collection”, and download the PDF from UH Manoa to see how Kepelino wrote his language down.
I think you’re over simplifying things. It helps to research other dialects of Olelo Maoli, to better understand the Hawaiian.
Kū on August 4, 2016 at 12:14 am said:
Aloha J.K. Pononui,
While I agree that the language spoken today may be somewhat different from that of pre-missionary arrival, it should not be looked down upon as being wrong. If you look to all Polynesian languages, they themselves have changed over time as well. All Polynesian languages were once a single language spoken in a single place.
And I would not say that the quote used lacks context because by looking at all languages, they evolved and changed over time.
I think an issue is how each part of Polynesia had been affected differently by European contact.
As a reference, please read “History of Polynesian Languages” by Yuko Otsuka
rd on June 27, 2013 at 11:41 pm said:
Much Thanks to Dr. Sai for helping to set the Record Straight:) Always lifting you & your family Up in prayer:)
Mahalo Dr. Sai for Recognition THAT ALLI NUI IS WHO HE SAID HE IS……..lol. Mahalos ….remember up at NEW YORK……SO FUNNIE……LOL
BackedByAkua on April 14, 2014 at 8:29 pm said:
Aloha kunoa, e kalamai but have u seen any documents of Daynes koko? I no tink so.. why i say dat is because nobody saw, even the kupuna which he snaked all the kala from.. he took the opportunity to jump in a the meeting to advertise the kala.. nobody asked him to. Alkng with his two baboonz in the bak… your poly kingdom of “kauai” is all lies bradda.. sorry to break da news to u… myself as well as alot of my ohana once belived in the Disney movement until, drugs and money was the key to be in it… and if u thinkin i talkin crap.. i not my kanaka… myself and couple of my cousinz was amoungst the first so called marshalls on oahu.. so i kno… pkoa is not recognize by the UN.. the only pull they have is Chief Miko. Atooi id and plates hold no water in any legal situation.. they all still goin court!!! That saying…. “peepo will soon see the light of atooi, and follow the light” soun good ah? So did nuclear bombs at one point.. we all seen da light and left the disney channel episode of atooi clowns….stay blessed kanaka.. dont get sucked in by the lies… do ur research, ask for proven documents from ur so called alii. As for me and my ohana.. Atua is Ali’i. And dayne will get his day.
Hawaiian Kingdom on June 28, 2013 at 6:09 pm said:
The purpose for this posting was in no way intended to ridicule but rather to clarify misinformation and to provide historical context. Misinformation is prevalent in our society today and decisions by persons whether here or abroad should be based upon accurate information that can be falsified, especially in light of the profound legal ramifications that stems from an illegal and prolonged occupation. This blog was established for the dissemination of information both current and historical.
Pualani Chandler Baptista on August 28, 2014 at 11:08 pm said:
Thank you Anu for providing a place for all of us to share our mana’o and get information for greater clarity. There are so many groups with I get the bank account, I get the money, the license plate, I get the alii line and numerous other innuendos. Lord know this has been our saving grace to actually see the documents and hear the clarifications. God Bless!!
Mahalo HK for the availability of this blog, the comments, the responses and ALL of us continuing research due diligence. Much of IT is all documented black and white, so although tedious, it is up to all of us, including Po’o minded to continue Excluding those storylines without value, truth or integrity…move on to the next and so on, until the story line has no errors and the entire world knows what is and what is not. It’ll take every last one of us like-minded peoples to educate that same world, spread the truth and engage as many other peoples as possible.
Hoomanawanui on June 28, 2013 at 7:38 pm said:
Oh what a low blow it looks as these people were brought in from somewhere over the rainbow! it is a full on sham formed by the united states of America to complicate things more for the kanakamaole people. I don’t know if he is really a kanaka from ancient times but dane or whatever his name is looks like a mickey mouse show. The Hawaiian Kingdom should bring forth a group of genealogy specialist to weed out thiese type of shams. I for one know many researchers including myself who would bring light to this pony show. Sad that the USA government uses the taxpayers money to put on a show like this in order to create confusion towards the true kanaka people.
This is a strategy aimed at those who are on the fence and straddling the alanui. They are going after those who are not sure and don’t know. Those who have been following in every group. There are a lot of them I know, before 1992 I was straddling the fence going to all kinds of meetings and trying to learn more. Then I met Dr Sai and I saw and know that he only shared with us the facts as they now stand and have been standing for the last 121 years. So I’m here in full support of the Hawaiian Kingdom as it now stands and then moving forward.
maile on November 24, 2014 at 5:18 am said:
E O
Frank on June 29, 2013 at 8:44 pm said:
Ipu naha…cracked pot…lol!
Kukila on June 30, 2013 at 12:18 am said:
Watched a video of this guy (Aipolani) at the United Nations Headquarters. They were introducing their Kingdom of Atooi currency. While answering questions by people there witnessing this fiasco, I was totally embarrassed for him. He should have spent some “kala” on PR people, instead of paying for those two deputies of his (these two were super funny) Anyways…
Nope no money…..just Akua!…..ATOOI O IOOTA…..YOU ALREADY KNOW …..LOL U GUYS FUNNIE….
Pualani Chandler Baptista on June 30, 2013 at 5:33 am said:
Mahalo Keanu for all the information that has been put out by you with verifications. Ke Akua malama you and your ohana. God Bless you. Always am amazed at the way you keep things pono. You are a blessing to all of us who are watching, listening, and praying for the truth to break forth into a RENEWED Day for all Kanaka Maoli and Hawaiian Subjects. I’m grateful that at the helm is Ke Akua and at the wheel is Keanu, and the wonderful faithful crew. IMUA!
Kanekeawe on June 30, 2013 at 8:40 pm said:
Yah-mon, this fella Atooi you best let him pass like aah good or even aah bad bowel movement, either way; get this soldier-mon out of your system he is bad mojo mon!
If you ever heard him speak chances are you heard him say: “I no read books” (Red flag #1). You heard him say that a family member of his was directly involved with the Kuhio Charter (Red flag #2). Asked him about the validity of the Hawaiian Kingdom and the Kuhio Charter, he couldn’t explain it. This one is funny; you might have heard him say:
“we no need one constitution; constitution means they (whoever they are) going con you into one institution!” Asked him what about the Hawaiian Kingdom constitution already in place, “we no need um” whatever I say as Alii nui goes” (Red flag #3); Dictatorship! Dumb ass!
To top things off, this pakalolo prince thinks he can effectively rule a country in his hazy state of mind, double dumb ass!! (Red flag #4) I think he may be a U.S. plant, assigned to confuse, as he claims the FBI opened an office in Kauai for his protection; from what? Sanity?
If you noticed the pattern of the U.S. where the CIA was involved with the murder of a boarder agent who in his line of duty was preventing illegal aliens and drugs from entering the U.S. it would indicate that the U.S. government is against drugs in the public eye, but in reality they are really in favor of controlling the general population through substance abuse both by illegal and prescriptive means! That is my mana’o on that anyway!
There are a lot of “GROUPS” yes “GROUPS” (no one wants to be defined by the G word) out there that will recall that Hawaii was at one time a Hawaiian Kingdom, yet for some reason can’t get pass the fact that we’ve all been duped, the joke was played on us! Like Warren Buffett once stated “If you have to look around to see who the joke was played upon, it’s probably you!) The quicker you realize you’re caught up in such a situation, don’t make it worse, go back to the facts and set yourself back on course! How can all these GROUPS, Kau inoa, Kanaioluwalu, Alii Aipoalani and the many self-appointed Kings and Queens justify their existence today without first having a valid and grounded connection to our kingdom’s history because if they had it right they would know the Kuhio Charter is a wash based upon La Kuokoa and that the entities formed under the U.S., Kau inoa and Kanaioluwalu is based off an entity that has no jurisdiction in Hawaiian Kingdom territory!
And one more thing about misinformation, the other night I watched the story about Hokulea by Kathy Muneno, it was great except for one thing I had an issue with, now I know that TV is based upon drama and I wasn’t around 600 years ago, but where did the information come from that “Voyaging between Hawai‘i and Tahiti, navigating only by nature’s clues, ended about 600 years ago.” 2013 – 1778 = 235 years! Captain Cook only stumbled upon the Hawaiian Islands 235 years ago, go figure! http://www.khon2.com/hokulea/
Almost like Christopher Columbus discovering america in 1492. Really?
Sorry to the faithful readers of this site, I just had to let loose on the phony GROUPS and individuals out there! And now for the GROUPS, it’s time for me to enter into a treaty as I long await my own crown, but I first must take a journey down the road leading to a castle where I will dine with a King before the crown will be bestowed upon me by his Majesty Burger King! I like to visit his Majesty Burger King because he lets me have it my way!
Kukila on July 1, 2013 at 2:58 am said:
Hahahaha he did make mention about the FBI, DEA and all them other groups… BUT!!! that was NOT the answer to the questions being asked over and over again! They were asking him “can this currency be used anywhere in the world? Can I use it to purchase bread and milk?” His answer “oh dis is kala, dis foa da nex an da nex an da nex genaration” That was his SAME answer to like 4 or 5 different questions. UGH! Wish I didn’t watch that video
MAUI MAOLI on September 17, 2013 at 5:07 am said:
Aloha… jus wonderin where i can find dat video. been hearing alot too…
yes,the kala is being use now……cause I get…..jus saying…….if the government of USA …money is being run …that means they control everything and make the rules…so why can’t we handle our own!…come get on the SAME TEAM…..SO FUNNIE….
Kanaka.. u need to rethink the team u in… foreal kanak… u really think federal govt goin give pkoa anything? Aole… u really like one pothead as one leader? Its all about money and drugz and hu can donate da most can be my bes fren.. i kno fo a fact.
Dutchy on July 1, 2013 at 8:35 pm said:
Right On-Mon!!! Too much herbs and Disney Channel. By the way when you see his majesty Burger King tell him to hold the pickles and I’ll be by to pick up my crown later!!!
Bumby we meet…lol….DUTCHY………..hahaha so funnie……I can wait…
Li Mo on September 18, 2013 at 8:40 pm said:
Hmmm, very interesting indeed!!
Kanekeawe on July 2, 2013 at 3:36 am said:
Oh yeah, he has that one shiny silver coin that he
shows everyone. Maybe he uses it to hypnotize the
unwary; come to me, let me ID you so you can be my
slave. Huh ha! The only kala is: ala ala kala!
His exchange rate is: watch the coin, listen to me and I’ll separate your hard earned cash from you!
A fool and his money are soon parted!
To purchase bread and milk everyone would need to
be in on that trick! And soon Peter will take from Paul after Paul had already taken from Peter!
And his all powerful shiny silver badge used to stop the ferry. Oh, not any ferry, but a Superferry right here in Hawaii!
Wow, heh, dis bugga get some mana heh! Try ask him
if he can stop Matson or Hawaiian Airlines, bet you he no can! And the uneducated wants us Hawaiians
(race not a factor) to get together, not with that
Dumb Ass!! He has a road map on his face, probably
from looking to close at a GPS system, he no read
that’s why! Huh ha!!
Eh, all in good fun, at his expense of course! Huh!
If he was Pono, I wouldn’t blast his ass, but to see
him and his co-horts take advantage of those just
learning about the actual history of Hawaii, screw
him!! Eh, give the people back their money! Thief!!
If he is a placement of the U.S. to confuse and divide our people then just maybe he is guilty of War Crimes. Just maybe!! We can hope.
Yah-mon, got plenty there for the whole family mon!
Huh ha!
Tim Reis on July 5, 2013 at 9:01 pm said:
After studying our history, I think that we need to show a tremendous amount of compassion towards ALL of our kanaka ma’oli brothers and sisters.
No one is perfect, add all the hewa that our people have had to endure and we get a situation that is expected to produce very un-pono actions. I encourage everyone to find their aloha.
Aloha is the ONLY wa’a that is going to make it through the rough seas that we have ahead of use
Atu Matua on October 13, 2014 at 10:00 am said:
Shame these kids get to play their hate games,name calling and judgments here on this so called pono “Hawaiian kingdom” blog and to top it off they claim to be part of Akua.
It’s just sad to see. Stop the Hate,it only hurts you.
Matt on September 4, 2016 at 1:26 am said:
I think that you stated it very well, but I think you should extend your compassion to more than just Kanaka Ma’oli.
I think we need a tremendous amount of compassion for EVERYONE. 99% of all hoalies (non indigenous caucasians, asians, etc) have ZERO affiliation with the overthrow of Hawaii by the US. A very small number of people (including hoalie businessmen and complicit Hawaiian rulers) controlled the events leading up to the takeover. Further, many people do not really understand or appreciate the Hawaiian plight.
Have love for everyone. If someone skin is lighter than yours, you cannot make assumptions about who they are or who their ancestors were. Hawaiians are no different that Hoalies or or any other Humans. All people have have at times oppressed, killed and taken from others… including Hawaiians. Recognize we are all humans. We are all controlled by a few powerful people in every country. Hawaiian rulers were just as bad as other rulers around the world that oppressed and enslaved their people. Hawaiians were killed or maimed all the time for silly infractions,
When Hawaiians assert that white people took their Kingdom, they simply turn people like me off from listening, because 99.999% of white people had nothing to do with taking over Hawaii. Color of skin does not define us. Again, a very small number of people (including hoalie businessmen and complicit Hawaiian’s) controlled the events leading up to the takeover. Remember there were already Russians here, French, Chinese, etc… The Hawaiians were steering toward joining Britain for security (Hence the flag) or the US. The Navy crew coming ashore probably happened after it was already inevitable.
I am all for Hawaii being Sovereign, and I think it is possible. I think it might be the right thing to do because it was not done in a way that was best for the Hawaiian people.
Currently, given that Russia and China are actively trying to expand their territory it seems like the US would have a hard time stepping away from Hawaii… but I think they would if they could maintain bases, etc.
Should Hawaii go back to being a Kingdom? I hope that is not what the Hawaiian people would want for themselves. I would hope they would choose a for of government were they people have more of a voice this time.
Kū on September 4, 2016 at 8:03 am said:
“Hawaiian rulers were just as bad as other rulers around the world that oppressed and enslaved their people. Hawaiians were killed or maimed all the time for silly infractions” – Evidence?
I find it somewhat ironic how you said “When Hawaiians assert that white people took their Kingdom, they simply turn people like me off from listening, because 99.999% of white people had nothing to do with taking over Hawaii.” – You are doing the exact same thing that turns you off when you said “Hawaiians assert”. You did not say most or some, but Hawaiians. That is like saying everyone who is Hawaiian is asserting that. That is not true.
“The Hawaiians were steering toward joining Britain for security (Hence the flag) or the US.” – This is a claim. Where is the evidence? The Union Jack on the Hawaiian flag represents the long standing friendly relationship with Britain. Hawaiʻi is a Neutral State, that is its security under international law.
“I am all for Hawaii being Sovereign, and I think it is possible.” – Hawaiʻi is sovereign. The U.S. never extinguished the sovereignty, that is why it is under an illegal occupation.
“might be the right thing to do” – It is the right thing to do. It is unjust what the U.S. did and continues to do.
“Should Hawaii go back to being a Kingdom?I would hope they would choose a for of government were they people have more of a voice this time.” – It is still a Kingdom. The only thing that was overthrown was the government. The State itself remains intact. The people did have a voice. The Queen listened to the people and their distaste for the illegitimate “1887 ‘Bayonet’ constitution” and made plans to write a new Constitution.
Matt on September 4, 2016 at 7:06 pm said:
I meant that “When Hawaiians assert…”.. .did not mean to imply all Hawaiians assert anything. But certainly poorly written. Apologies.
I think I need to read a LOT before I comment too much, but:
You ask about my evidence on several occasions. Clearly I don’t have any direct evidence. I have been reading a lot about Hawaii from the period of “contact” through the occupation as it is pretty amazing stuff. Im currently reading “Paradise of the Pacific” and it seems to do a good job of quoting directly from writings by the actual players at the time, or witnessed. I was citing things from this book.
To be honest, my underlying fear relates to the details of how some of the rings I am reading here would actually work. I read comments about a lot of changes that would take place. For instance taking back all the property sold under the US system, and reallocating it back to the prior landholders from the Hawaiian Kingdom.
I think problems include these:
– Would title insurance actually ever pay? I suspect no for a variety of legal and practical reasons. I doubt they would even have enough money. It would have to be paid by the US govt.
– Would they nullify all current land ownership or just ownership by some people?
– How would you ever reallocate fairly? Any date you pick to revert to will have all its own inherent unfairness as land was routinely taken from people and reallocated at the a new King’s whim. (according to what I’m reading). Further how fair was it that some commoners had almost no land while those in the ruling class might have had massive amounts of land… largely (in my opinion) due to their oppression of the commoners.
– How would you ever resolve who is entitled to what land given that people have intermixed to much over time.
– Is it fair that a person is more deserving of land because their ancestors held it, or because if their own actions and efforts.
Im sure others have expressed these concerns more articulately than I can…
There are many issues like this that seem extremely complex in reality, and ripe with all it their greed, unfairness, manipulation, corruption, etc.
Why not leave land ownership as is and charge a tax based on value of land or revenue derived from the land, where the money is used to directly benefit Hawaiians much more than today. Have you looked at the Alaska model where the land was divided into native corporations and the peoples get a percent of revenue from income derived in heir ancestral areas? Maybe something like that?
Just spit-balling. I don’t really have the ability to become an expert on any of this stuff as it is a lot of information. Kind of scary to lose homes.
kekoa on September 5, 2016 at 8:50 am said:
Aloha Matt, This is not a racial issue it is a legal issue and the law will dictate what happens. Hawaiians will be subject to the Law just like you and everyone else. Personal feelings and beliefs of you and Hawaiians are irrelevant. I agree with what you said “…Kind of scary to lose homes.” Hawaiians lost much more than homes, lands and civil rights but they survived. Just like Hawaiians, everyone else will learn to survive. The U.S. is liable for all damages so you need to seek redress from the perpetrator (U.S.) and not the victims.
Kanekeawe on July 7, 2013 at 10:16 pm said:
Aloha Tim,
I suppose you are correct! Mahalo for keeping me in check!
I get frustrated sometimes when individuals or groups get you
into believing something to be true of the Hawaiian Kingdom
only to be proven wrong or inaccurate. The time taken in order
to discover the wrong or inaccuracy is the actual frustration!
I’m sure Bernie Madoff was very good at what he did if not
he wouldn’t have gotten so much media attention, but I don’t
think he’ll be overwhelmed with Christmas cards from his
clients anymore! The time it took for people to actually
discover what he was up to was around the same moment
they realized their investment perhaps life’s savings was no
more. If it was beyond his control would be one thing, but
if he was in control?
Take a look at the link below:
http://kanaiolowalu.org/news/
Native Hawaiians never relinquished their sovereignty, is
what the commercial says in reference to U.S. Public law
103-150, which accurately state: “the indigenous Hawaiian
people never directly relinquished their claims to their inherent
sovereignty as a people or over the national lands to the United states…”
Suggest colonization and limited to a specific race of people.
Question, why can’t this organization see the Kingdom’s
independence since 11/28/1843, yet have no problem celebrating
the 4th of July? You can see the insult to all those who placed
their names on that 1897 Ku’e Petition!
It should have been stated something similar to the below:
The sovereignty of Hawaiian Kingdom was never ceded to
the United States of America and the Kingdom’s people that are
made up of various races along with its aboriginal Kanaka Maoli and
Kanaka remain subjects of its independent nation state.
Implies occupation over a nation of people not limited to race.
Veronica Kama on July 10, 2013 at 4:09 am said:
Aloha Kakou,
This should be very enlightening for everyone to know. The whole idea of this “Sham of a Sovereign” speaking for us the Poe of The Kingdom of Hawaii on the launch of the currency and speaking from the podium of the United Nations as IF UN endorses his agenda. Dayne “Puni” Gonsalves , his followers and his minions are Going Down, The
video was so disgraceful, Hilahila! He should be prosecuted for these misrepresentations (lies) and he will be accountable as I write this reply.
This is what the DPI(Department of Public Information) at the United Nations confirms:
“Dayne “Puni” Gonsalves applied in 2010 as an NGO(non-governmental organization) with the United Nations under a civil society status. This category in the U.N. helps any organization who applies to interact with other countries and or groups for the purposes of environmental, social and economic development issues to gain understanding and
exchange ideas in the forums and caucuses with other NGO groups held at the U.N. annually. His application names his Organizational Structure as a Polynesian Monarchy as PKOA/the Hawaiian Kingdom and naming “Te Moana Nui A Kiva” as an affiliate network under the Indigenous People’s Organizations. His application at the United Nations was a standard process and uneventful upon acceptance. In other words, I was told that a recent group that was accepted was the Jehovah’s Witness Divinity Group. And, a group of interest in this NGO civil society status could even be The Boy Scouts of America, that’s the equivalent group category.
This uneventful application which is a standard process in the United Nations and the acceptance of it morphed into “Dayne” (Atooi) was recognized in the United Nations as the Sovereign of PKOA/the Hawaiian Kingdom and claims also that PKOA is recognized as a sovereign and independent country by the U.N. And, what is this network “Te Moana Nui AKiva”? It is a Union of 9 Polynesian Islands who signed an agreement with Dayne as the Po’o of this Union “to honor and support the human rights, civil liberties and political autonomy of the Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi recognizing its right to peacefully exist in perpetuity.” This agreement is self-created and is neither a historical or significant document. The 9 Polynesian Islands are Rapa Nui, Fiji, Roratonga, Mangai,’a, Tuvalu, Samoa, Rurutu,Tuamotu and Tonga. This agreement morphed into what Dayne refer to as Treaties with these Polynesian Islands. So,let’s clarify his info. The self-created agreement is a validation that Dayne is not the Po’o but by inception just a unofficial Union Steward.PKOA is not recognized as a Polynesian Monarchy nor a nation by the U.N. He gave the U.N.falsified information on his application and misrepresented to all others that the U.N. endorses him as a Sovereign and PKOA/the Hawaiian Kingdom as a sovereign and independent country. A ole.U.N. is not representative of his statements nor the recognition as an “Alii Nui”. His group is an NGO/Civil Society observer status equivalent to a standard of the Boy Scouts of America. Do not be fooled by his representations that he is endorsed by the U.N. It may look like a duck, walk like duck but it is a chicken. The Launching of PKOA Currency video at the U.N. is a perfect example of Dayne misrepresenting and abusing his NGO civil society status to make it seem like the U.N.endorses his actions.A ole. He simply went to the annual meeting at the U.N. on the Forum on Indigenous People’s Organization and used the U.N.webcast to promote his own agenda.
The United Nations interviewer from DPI confirms the following:
PKOA/the Hawaiian Kingdom Group is an NGO/civil society observer only.
PKOA the Hawaiian Kingdom is not recognized as a sovereign and independent nation by the U.N.
PKOA/ the Hawaiian Kingdom is not a member nation of the United Nations and is not a member in the General Assembly body of the U.N.nor able to participate in the Permanent Forum unless allowed.
United Nations do not designate any group to a national status nor participated with
PKOA for the Launch of the Atooi Currency and its video. Dayne conveniently used his
annual meeting at the U.N.to use their webcast purporting U.N. is aware of his podium, A ole.
United Nations does not participate nor keep a registry of people with Atooi ID’s as he and his Moi Wahine claims. Any inference that the ID’s, Passports, License Plates and any other identifications the group produces for its membership has no legal reference to the United Nations. PKOA group membership is strictly an agreement with their own following with their own database and with any apparatus they utilize.
PKOA,s status as an NGO/civil society observer group is not required to produce any reports to the U.N.except the groups in the civil society with a consultative status. PKOA does not hold a consultative status.
The status which PKOA holds in the U.N. was not accepted by formal ceremony nor an
exclusive agreement. U,N, accepted a standard application from PKOA.
PKOA membership shall not maintain that the United Nations regulate their cause, purpose or convictions as a Hawaiian group or nation.
The legal matters currently pending in the United Nations and the Fourth Geneva Convention by the Acting Hawaiian Kingdom Government by its Ambassador Keanu Sai already acknowledges the Kingdom of Hawaii as a sovereign and independent State.
The acceptance of these legal documents in the U.N. by Keanu Sai calls for your actions to stop because the act of treason by you and your followers will happen, It’s not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. You are going down.
U.N. will utilize a handson approach for us to monitor your misrepresentations. And, my message to you is “Bring it On.”
Kahalione
Dutchy on July 10, 2013 at 8:24 pm said:
EO!!!
Kgirl on December 2, 2014 at 7:54 pm said:
Mahalo for your info. I don’t believe self appointed kanaks either. They have an agenda of their own.
Reuben S Ruiz on August 24, 2019 at 7:59 pm said:
This is the information I was looking for.
With so many other acknowledged oral/written and possibly corrupt explanations concerning PKOA, the UN sets the record straight.
PKOA does not hold consultive status.
Kanekeawe on July 11, 2013 at 5:53 am said:
Pomai Wright on July 18, 2013 at 10:26 pm said:
Aloha… Wanted to mahalo Dexter Kaiama for tonights “Insights” pbs hawaii… As he represents the Hawaiian Kingdom restoration… Sending my hopes and prayers… Mahalo…….http://www.hawaiiankingdom.info/…
Aloha… Thinking of some questions for tonight…. If the H K was never extinguish… Are we living in the H K today???… Next weekend is La Hoi hoi Ea… It took 6 m0nths for the British to return our Ea…. Why hasn’t the U S return our Ea??? … Do you know where i can find a copy of the Annexation between the U S and the H K???… in 1897 90% of the people of the H K did not want to part of the U S… Today how many hawaiians want to be indians???… Do you know of any questions???…. mahalo
Iolani on July 19, 2013 at 12:41 am said:
Ahh! Very good questions! Especially that question if there is a treaty of annexation!
Wayne on July 19, 2013 at 9:07 am said:
I agree with Pomai, much mahalo Dexter for taking
a stand for our Hawaiian Kingdom! Although you
never saw us there in person our spirits were definately there with you!! Mahalo!
Time will not allow the U.S. to skip over the
requirement for a treaty of cession. Either they
have it or they don’t. They most definately don’t!
Wouldn’t an involuntary participation with either
Kauinoa or Kanaiolowalu and the classification as indians be considered a crime of mass genocide
against Hawaiian nationals under international law?
Definition of GENOCIDE
: the deliberate and systematic destruction of a racial, political, or cultural group
This classification is not targeted to only U.S.
nationals as Waihee said, but to all the Lahui!
Why would Kanaiolowalu, a U.S. entity, recruit a
certain race of people from all over the world to
agree to be considered something they are not?
(money) They cross the line! I don’t have anything
against the indians, but I’m not one and will never
be one so the U.S. can continue its HEWA against
our nation of people!!
Just thinking!
A hui hou,
Kahiapo on August 16, 2013 at 10:42 am said:
Aloha kanaka. My ohana & I have been saying the same things since we first heard of this atooi group. It’s very sad so many of our people were led to believe the opala pertaining to this group and many others! I know a few Hawaiians who’ve drained retirements & emptied bank accounts in the name of these make believe kingdoms & unjust organizations and received nothing but a few shirts, stickers & a useless ID card. Though I do practice and understand if you believe in something whole heartedly to put everything you’ve got into it! Just shame how soo many of us allow ourselves to be fooled this way!
Mahalo to Keanu Sai for all he has done and continues to do for the kanaka! I believe the Hawaiian kingdom government should be put into power or reinstated but under the reign of our true Mo’i Kamehameha VI. I see very little progress in the years to come without the Mo’i and am interested to see what DR Sai thinks about his Koko, Genealogy, Affidavit, probate #.
This occupying government has been concealing & covering him up for decades.
Kaikua’anas & kaikuahines before you comment (rationally or irrationally) do the research. See the truth for yourselves!
Mahalo & Aloha
Kealoha Aina on August 28, 2013 at 10:10 pm said:
I think there is one thing the Kingdom of Atooi forgot. The seal that they use is actually the coat of arms for the Hawaiian Kingdom which is a constitutional monarchy. Hawaii was already united as a Kingdom that remains under military occupancy but was not abolished. It is the De Jure government for all of Hawaii. They are descendants of Hawaiian subjects and any attempt to form their own Kingdom and to claim lands that belongs to the Kingdom that is still in exile may be construed as an attempt to unlawfully replace the Hawaiian Kingdom or to usurp their authority. In other words… Their actions can be considered treasonous. If the members of the Kingdom of Atooi look at the anti-annexation petition, they would see that their ancestors had signed it signifying their allegiance to the Kingdom and the desire to reinstate it to it’s full glory. What they are in essence doing, is disgracing and working against the wishes of their Kupuna. None of whom had ever heard of the Kingdom of Atooi nor recognized their authority. Treason is a serious offense with a sentence that includes the death penalty.
Ernest Reyes on September 3, 2013 at 6:21 am said:
l like watt I see and hear it’s all good I learn every day go by Aloha to you all of you for teach all of us online Aloha
Rhonda on September 23, 2013 at 9:19 pm said:
I agree, I have learned so much here online. To bad I didn’t do my research before getting the ID and giving them $25. Thanks for opening my eyes before giving out more money! Lesson learned.
Kanefire..... on September 22, 2013 at 6:46 pm said:
Yes i’m very glad that people will take the time to research, a lot of misleading with this self proclaim movement.
Kahiapo on September 26, 2013 at 7:05 pm said:
Dayne gonsalves is who he says he is!! The Alii nui of the Polynesian kingdom of atooi!
Where the are lands that can be governed, owned or claimed by this kingdom is. Beats me!! But I know it’s not anywhere within the archipelago of Hawaii & 200 miles out surrounding it.
Which means the atooi is made up, belongs to another chain of Polynesian islands or it can float!!!
Another possibility is that it’s from outer space….
Jokes aside, Mr gonsalves cannot claim to be king of hawaii through the line of kamualii! Gonna need more than an “aah he get em” wen I ask about his paperwork Especially while the owners of the allodium (KAMEHAMEHAS) are alive & well!
All kanaka should do their genealogy to know their lineage. what lands they are entitled to. Then fight for it with a passion!
All land title deeds, fee & lease were given out less than allodial.
Bethan Pualani Chandler Baptista on October 29, 2013 at 11:00 pm said:
It’s wonderful to see more people joining in the conversation re: the health and strength of the people of the Hawaiian Kingdom and those Nations who are claiming the right to the Kingdom. Let’s all focus our energies on supporting the established avenue for the emergence of the Hawaiian Kingdom. All the other agendas are mute. This is not their platform. They all have to have an established boundary that is in their name. They cannot take what is not in their name so it has already been decided. Everyone else claiming any rights to any land must have good title. It must be irrefutable, no mo puka.
Everything good and right will have resistance and controversy. Remember that it is not the United States or any other Nation that decides who is the rightful heir. Only the Nation in which said person wishes to make his claim has the responsibility to answer. So remember who the thief is and no foget he has no rights here. Then we no need talk about each other. Because no need. We already get our answer.
GOD PLEASE BLESS OUR PEOPLE WITH EYES TO SEE, EARS TO HEAR, HEARTS AND MINDS THAT DISCERN BETWEEN TRUTH AND ERROR. AMEN.
Kawehi kiekie on April 12, 2014 at 12:38 am said:
Auwe no ho’i e!!
Pilikia NUI!!
i starting fo believe my tutu kane and makua kane when they said Hawaiians were like papa’i (crabs).
Always pulling each other back down to da bottom of da bucket, stepping on eachother fo get to da top. No one can make up there mind what dey like. Newa can get together, ho’oponopono and lokahi.
All u groups get good points, and weaknesses/ flaws. We could learn from one anadda but NO!! Everybody like HAKA HAKA!! Make big Hūhū wit oneanoddah! Put away u guyzes ‘ule and rulahs and wake up!! REALIZE, Most groups do it out of aloha for our Kanaka, our keiki, our aina and our Lāhui the best that they know how! (Including u.s. sanctioned ones i.e. OHA).
Na ‘Iwi Kupuna are crying in there ‘Iwi baskets!!
As fo da pakalolo references… UFA KEFE!!( for the lack of Hawaiian swear words). How you can be MAOLI and not be in favor of a la’au. All be it that it’s a La’au lapa’au haole. But so is awapuhi Pake, and other haole la’au that we use! We come in all walks of life, i.e. doctors, lawyers, judges, cops. Like alcohol use, we refrain from use until pau hana for muscle and pain relief!! So go take your advil, I’ll Stick to my ‘awa and pakalolo! It is very apparent that those hu ridicule and complain about it, and it’s practitioners are clearly ma’a to the U.S.’s laws, customs, and propoganda!!!
*”To error is human.”
*”How can you help take the splinter out of your brothers eye when you have a log in your own?”
*A Lāhui divided, can not Kū!!
*’Ua mau ka ea o kaaina i ka pon0!!
God damn, stop being a “Dane”and a “crab” to our people and become aware. This guy is at the UN convincing people that Hawai’i has become decolonized when in reality Hawai’i has never been colonized, ever. So we puttin’ this clown on check. Talking about Atooi means ‘light of god’ lmao. If you’re gonna cause confusion then you’re a crab yourself.
Stop the hate
debra kekaualua on April 12, 2014 at 7:02 am said:
aloha keanu, how does hawaiian kingdom fund all the valuable documents and time line clearly establish grand info, but the use of a 501c3 would be problematic if that is how you are able to keep on keeping on. Mahalo. debra kekaualua
Keoniana on March 3, 2015 at 9:09 pm said:
It’s very sad that over the years Hawaiians have done so much talking, and has their been any resolve, absolutely nothing, but if you look throughout the world and throughout history the only way to regain your lands and your right to govern is by force, not by words, so until that day comes when someone sands up and proclaim themselves Alii Nui, and fights with their fist rather then with words, I’ll be the first in line to support that Alii.
ʻIokepa on September 13, 2014 at 6:36 pm said:
Must get weight, sad that I had to read all of this…. I am very skeptical, but reading all of these post all these other groups worried about getting federal money and talking smack about other Hawaiians. Sad, sad to know that our history has been so polluted and obstructed that a kanakas worst enemy is another kanaka. Shame
http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2013/130520_Polynesia.doc.htm
Ae, lokepa, read through them all a well, and it saddens me to see our people so divided and fighting with each other…”for who is without sin, let him cast the first stone”. Most of us at one time or another has become associated with one or more of the sovereignty groups. I myself since 1984 aligned myself with 5 different groups and after listening and watching for a period of time then realizing this is not the route, departed and always asked for my name to be removed from their records and in some cases asked for my papers back back. I left and never looked back because they will each have their day and will be accountable for their actions as we all will. What is past is pau..history. Let it go and move on. Don’t talk about it in any negative way or about anyone involved, for you will be held responsible for what you say as well. Like the Hokule’a, let’s be the wa’a that shows the world what the (TRUE) meaning of Aloha is.
Aloha wau ia o’e Na Lahui O Hawai’i
ERIC HUKILAU MILLER on October 20, 2014 at 8:17 pm said:
I agree, I have learned so much here online. To bad I didn’t do my research before getting the ID and giving them $25. Thanks for opening my eyes before giving out more money! Lesson learned. i will surport the hawaiian kingdom with DR. KEANU SAI
Bronson on December 22, 2014 at 4:26 pm said:
I met Keanu Sai twice, first with Kale Gumapac and second at my classmates and good friend Jr. Kaholowa’a house. The two times I met Keanu, it was always logical and factual with clarity based on the history and a plan for a process pertaining to occupation. He along with Kale and Dexter Kaiama are the fantastic three that is leading with education to and for our people. Along with Atooi, they just a name making claims to people that have no claims based on false genealogy and that this person was adopted to the Aipolani family.. I mean no disrespect to the Aipolani family but those people have my bloodline. Don’t get me wrong, I ain’t Ali’i but I hate when people slow the process claiming there are this and that when they have nothing to show and use fraud for their credentials. All I have to say, they are the ones that will have to answer our ancestors when that person hala and then our creator. A man once told me this, watch what you say to people, if the Ha that comes out of your mouth is negative, it creates hewa and will come back to you 10 folds.. I believe that and am glad that we have Keanu at the Hague dealing with this… Just thought I had to say this and hope everyone have a Merry Christmas and a happy New Year, Aloha..
Paul on January 24, 2018 at 8:20 am said:
Devide and Conquer.
Out of Chaos, comes Order.
Your Devision, their Conquest.
Your Chaos, their Order.
Do take caution Braddahs & Sistahs.
May God see your Rightous intentions.
Deldrene Herron on January 25, 2018 at 8:26 am said:
Atooi website not available now is U.N. and Local news citations available.
Derek on January 29, 2018 at 10:45 pm said:
Aloha Hawaii,
Auwe some of you folk here seem either misinformed or just have angry attitudes towards Alii Nui Dayne Aleka Aipoalani; (well please dont)!
Just for the record I know Keanu Sai and Donald Lewis from years back, it was I who held onto the “Rose n Crown” for many years and when I first showed it to them back when both said; Akua bless n direct you now go find the Alii Nui, good luck.
Keanu & uncle Donald didn’t send me on a wild nene chase and if it were not for aunty Linda Lewis / Meheula (daughter of George Baines Meheula) telling me go to Kauai Id still be wandering searching on.
Akua bless all of you, be patient and keep your dignity.
David Heaukulan on January 18, 2019 at 5:03 pm said:
Brother Keanu. With the latest offensive against the agents of the occupation (Atooi forces take over OHA office, circa 2019) the Kingdom of Atooi drives the conversation again. I looked at your above post because It popped up when I wanted to see what was going on. You put a lot of effort into your opinion, or a Western learned view, on how Atooi came about. Let me give a possible alternative view. I just want to say that it was the English (or British as you state) who heard it first and placed in on their maps. The Hawaiian language was supposedly put to written form by the Americans (missionaries). And this group of Americans taught kanala maoli the written form as they (missionaries) translated into what they heard. Could it be that those early English explorers heard what might have been tatou rohe? Which is how they say “our region” in the Maori tongue. And Americanization of the language for us now is makou wahi. And you take the Atooi followers to task by stating “On the Polynesian Kingdom of Atooi website, it is claimed that ‘Atooi’ is translated in the native language to mean ‘Light of God’ but this is not correct because ‘Atooi’ is not a Hawaiian word…” You are correct, but is there an alternative point of view? The Maori language has Atua which is God. Tia tupato, Taua e Tiranga or as the old Hawaiians would say in one word, maha’oi. Mona Kahele of Miloli’i used to say what her elders used to say, i.e., stay in your own ahupua’a. Or as my Maori 4th cousins would say, noho i rotou i tou rohe. Talofa—aloha—mihihia taku teina.
Typo –my bad; should be Kanaka instead of Kanala
pauolele on June 13, 2019 at 11:06 pm said:
Wasn’t Dane adopted?
I’ve been told when the child is adopted the child is removed from the biological line and takes on a new identity removing the child once.
Did my Genealogy and Dane is not of the Nakapaahu line of Waimea – Koloa.
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Hawaiian Islands Land Trust
You are here: Home Blog Maui Non Profit Hawaiian Islands Land Trust
Our mission at Hawaiian Paddle Sports involves more than just our business. Community, culture, and protecting what we love in this world is a big part of who we are. Each month, our Malama Maui program highlights a local charity, community group or non profit organization to help raise awareness for their cause. In January 2018, we were proud to support Hawaiian Islands Land Trust. Check out the highlights from last year in our video.
The mission of Hawaiian Islands Land Trust is simple: To protect the lands that sustain us for current and future generations.
Though often taken for granted, land – be it open space, coastal access, beaches, or conservation areas – is critical to sustaining our Maui community. As our population grows, industries expand, and developments increase, it is important to preserve native habitats and open space. Throughout Hawaii, the Hawaiian Islands Land Trust is responsible for managing thousands of acres. Their work is important to sustaining our islands and protecting these areas for the future.
Hawaiian Islands Land Trust: Restoring Maui’s Coastlines
In support of January’s non profit of the month, team members from Hawaiian Paddle Sports, Maui Kayak Adventures, Maui Stand Up Paddle Boarding, Maui Surf Lessons and Hawaii Mermaid Adventures spent the afternoon restoring Maui’s native coastal ecosystems with Hawaiian Islands Land Trust. The group’s efforts focused on Waihe‘e Coastal Dunes and Wetlands Refuge, a 277 acre land preserve located on Maui’s north shore. Waihe‘e represents one of the largest parcels owned by Hawaiian Islands Land Trust. It was once home to a thriving native Hawaiian community, complete with lo‘i (taro patches), fishponds, and heiau (temple). Just offshore the reserve lies excellent fishing and one of Maui’s most extensive reef systems.
Before Hawaiian Islands Land Trust gained ownership of the land in 2004, Waihe‘e was slated for a destination golf resort. Years of neglect by previous owners had also resulted in much of the area being overrun by invasive plants and animals. Native species were scarce and many of the archaeological sites were in various states of disrepair.
The group met up with HILT’s Associate Executive Director of Conservation, Scott Fisher, who led us on a hike sharing his extensive insights into the native species and history along the way.
`Akia (Wikstroemia uva-ursi)
This native bush was used to stun fish. When added to water, all oxygen is dispersed, leaving the fish immobile and easy to grab.
Nanea (Vigna marina)
Nitrogen fixer.
Naupaka (Scaevola taccada)
Berries that can help reduce eye infections.
Thursday’s Malama Maui service project included removing tree clippings from the hau tree. Hawaiians used the fibers from the tree to make cordage and the wood was used for outrigger canoe spars (?iako or ama and paepae or boom on a sailing canoe). Though a native species, the tree’s thick and twisted branches are encroaching upon a once thriving fish pond area. HILT hopes to enliven this fish pond in the future and is limiting the breadth of the hau trees’ growth. The wetlands have attracted several native waterbirds. Keeping the hau trees at a distance from the wetlands also keeps the predators such as cats and mongoose who live in the trees from native waterbirds.
Hawaiians did not only use the fishponds for fish, they also grew taro in the wetlands. A taro patch (lo`i kalo) the size of the once 7-acre fish pond at the Waihe‘e Coastal Dunes and Wetlands Refuge that was planted with enough room for the fish could easily have produced 35-70 metric tons of taro every year. This would have been a significant contribution to the sustainability of the community.
Active restoration programs at the preserve, including the invasive plant removal completed by Hawaiian Paddle Sports, have enhanced critical native wildlife habitat and preserved important cultural resources. These efforts pay off, and today Waihe‘e supports a number of native and endangered species. In recent years, Hawaiian Islands Land Trust staff have documented the residence of eight different endangered species including native Hawaiian birds such as the ae‘o (stilt), alae ke‘oke‘o (coot), koloa (duck), and nene (goose). Through volunteering, Hawaiian Paddle Sports team members were able to connect directly with the land and see the immediate results of their work.
The background on the left shows border HILT land, where non-native species of plants have not been removed. The right shows the land and fish pond post-restoration of the native Hawaiian plant species. This effort has allowed many native Hawaiian bird species, including ae‘o (stilt) and ‘alae ke‘oke‘o (coot) to return to the area.
Buy Back the Beach Fundraiser
On the Saturday following our service project at the Waihe‘e Coastal Dunes and Wetlands Refuge, Hawaiian Paddle Sports employees wet to the Buy Back the Beach fundraiser event at the Old Lahaina Luau. The event raised over $150,000 for the Hawaiian Island Land Trust to continue its valuable work. Many thanks are due to all the sponsors and volunteers who participated in this highly successful event. Do you recognize us all dressed up?
Land is an important and valuable resource in Hawai‘i, but can quickly be overtaken by human development. Founded in 2011, Hawaiian Islands Land Trust is a non profit organization dedicated to preserving Hawai‘i’s most culturally, environmentally, and socially valuable lands. Non-political by design, Hawaiian Islands Land Trust works with private landowners, community groups, community leaders and government partners to protect Hawaii’s precious lands. In some cases, such as at Waihe‘e Refuge, Hawaiian Islands Land Trust owns the land and has implemented long-term restoration projects. Hawaiian Islands Land Trust also offers resources and support to landowners in integrating conservation into their land use plans in perpetuity.
The Land Trust currently protects over 17,000 acres of land across the Hawaiian Islands through a variety of conservation easements and land ownership. Protection of these lands preserves beautiful views, promotes clean water and air, and ensures that the community has access to areas such as beaches and coastlines.
There are a number of ways to support Hawaiian Islands Land Trust – whether you’re a family volunteering your time on vacation or a corporate sponsor interested in making a donation.
If you’re on Maui, consider joining Hawaiian Islands Land Trust’s weekly workday, hosted every Friday at Waihe‘e Coastal Dunes and Wetland Refuge from 8am – 12pm. All work tools are provided, but make sure to bring sturdy shoes and sun protection.
You can also become a member or donate to Hawaiian Islands Land Trust. Memberships and donations are critical to helping Hawaiian Islands Land Trust continue its essential work throughout the islands.
Free, guided explorations of Waihe‘e Refuge are also offered throughout the year, and the two-mile coastal trail is open for self-guided walks. Learn more through Hawaiian Islands Land Trust’s Events Page, and don’t forget to sign up for the Newsletter!
For more information on how you can get involved, contact Scott Fisher, Interim Executive and Director of Conservation, via email [email protected] or call (808) 244-LAND (5263)
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Sean McDermott Delivers Good News About Cody Ford and Matt Milano
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Heavy on Bills
By Greg Macafee
Updated Nov 16, 2020 at 7:49pm
Getty Matt Milano celebrates with teammate Tarron Johnson
The Buffalo Bills just suffered one of the most heartbreaking losses of the season, but heading into the bye week, Bills Mafia has some positive news to look forward to.
Buffalo has been battered and bruised over the first 10 weeks of the season. Their starting offensive line hasn’t played a single down of football at full health. Cornerbacks Tre’Davious White, Josh Norman and Levi Wallace have yet to play together. Then, to cap it off, while starting middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds has been playing through injury, outside linebacker Matt Milano has missed time twice with injuries.
On Monday, McDermott delivered good news on both starting guard Cody Ford and Milano, who missed Sunday’s game due to injury.
“We’ll see on both of those guys, they are moving in the right direction,” McDermott said. “We don’t know for sure exactly when they’ll return on either of the two but I think both, from what I’ve been told this morning are moving in the right direction.”
Ford, who is a key piece of the Bills offensive line, has been in and out this season with both a knee injury and an ankle injury. After returning from a knee injury he suffered against the Chiefs, Ford went down against the Seahawks with an ankle injury and was questionable heading into Sunday’s game against the Cardinals.
Milano has been in and out of the starting lineup this season with a pectoral injury. He played in three of Buffalo’s first four games and then also played in Week 7 and Week 8 against the New York Jets and New England Patriots, but he’s been out of the starting lineup ever since.
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Bye Week Coming at a Good Time
Earlier this year, the Bills were looking forward to somewhat of a mini-bye when they were scheduled to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on a Thursday night. But with the chaos that surrounded the Tennessee Titans a week earlier, they lost that opportunity to rest up and heal.
Now, the Bills are looking forward to taking full advantage of their bye week.
“We’ve really gone 10 straight weeks, in addition to training camp, without a break,” McDermott said. “So, I think the guys need some rest. I feel like the rest is needed with how we’ve been balancing covid and trying to play the season and a few west coast trips to boot. I’m quite proud of how the guys have handled it honestly.”
When the Bills return next week to take on the Los Angeles Chargers, before going west again to take on the San Francisco 49ers, they are hoping to be fully healthy and could use the likes of Josh Norman, Cody Ford, John Brown, who McDermott said injured his ankle on Sunday, and others.
Strictly a Football Decision
When the Bills took the field on Sunday, some may have been looking forward to the return of veteran center Mitch Morse, who had returned to the practice field after suffering a concussion against the New England Patriots. But, Morse didn’t play on Sunday and McDermott referred to it as “strictly a football decision.”
“He was healthy it was just a coaches’ decision right there,” McDermott said. “Mitch is a good player but we felt like for last week we had some momentum with the group that we had in when Mitch went down and we wanted to take another look at it for one more week there.”
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TOPO CHICO
Topo Chico has been bottled at source in Monterrey, Mexico since 1895. Topo is refreshing and versatile satisfying your thirst or serving as a perfect cocktail mixer. Featuring exquisite effervescence through round, large bubbles, Topo Chico remains bubbly for long after it’s opened. The bluish tint in the glass and the unique throwback shape are aesthetically pleasing and features well in accounts ranging from fast casual restaurants to high-end hotels.
Category Water Sparkling Water Flavored
Topo Chico Original 12oz Bottles 24 Pack
Topo Chico Lime 12oz Bottles 24 Pack
Topo Chico Grapefruit 12oz Bottles 24 Pack
Topo Chico 6.5oz Bottles 24 Pack
Topo Chico 25oz Bottles 12 Pack
Topo Chico is a Mexican brand of sparkling mineral water that has been bottled from the source in Monterrey, Mexico since the year 1895. Its water has naturally occurring bubbles, but a small amount of carbonation is added to replace the effervescence that gets lost during the purification process. Though the bubbles in each bottle of Topo Chico are powerful, they aren’t overpowering and offer a gentler mouthfeel than its peers in the sparkling water category. Topo Chico is packaged in glass and plastic bottles with a retro-like label. This product contains 15 mg of sodium per 12-fluid-ounce serving, as well as 0 calories, 0 grams of fat, 0 grams of total carbohydrates, and 0 grams of protein. Topo Chico also offers lime and grapefruit varieties that contain the ingredients of the original flavor, but with the addition of natural fruit flavors.
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Formula 1 2020, British GP: From Hamilton's dramatic win to Leclerc’s unexpected podium, talking points form race
Mithila Mehta and Kunal Shah
2 August 2020, 11:40 pm ·10-min read
The start and the end of the 2020 British Grand Prix was full of drama. The first 13 laps of the race saw two safety car periods - both triggered by dramatic crashes in the mid-field. In the last 3 laps, three of the top-5 drivers suffered from unexpected tyre failures that gave us a surprise finishing order. At the flag, Lewis Hamilton took his seventh victory at Silverstone followed by Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc.
Not your average chequered flag... *#BritishGP ** #F1 pic.twitter.com/3h2M8gkuVF
- Formula 1 (@F1) August 2, 2020
>Three wheels to win
Hamilton's 87th career victory was also probably his most-dramatic and luckiest win till date. After leading comfortably from the start and with only half a lap to go of the 52 laps around the Silverstone circuit, Hamilton's left-front Pirelli tyre gave away - two laps after Valtteri Bottas' Mercedes suffered a similar fate. While Bottas was forced to pit and finish outside of the points, Hamilton dragged his Mercedes across the finish line with only three working wheels on his wagon to claim a tense victory. The reigning champion was lucky that his tyre issue struck on the last lap and not on the laps prior.
Hamilton said, "I have never experienced anything like that before. That last lap was one of the most challenging laps I have ever had."
Formula 1's tyre life graphic which has been subject to much ridicule given it's not-so-accurate representation in the past actually got it right in Hamilton's case. The graphic had shown Hamilton's left-front tyre life at only 10 percent a lap before it gave up. Along with Hamilton and Bottas, Mclaren's Carlos Sainz Jr. suffered a similar tyre issue a couple of laps to the end. While Bottas stumbled down the order from second place, Sainz did so from fourth place - costing both drivers vital championship points.
Big crashes, awesome overtakes and one of the wildest finishes Silverstone has ever seen *
Watch all the best action from the 2020 British Grand Prix *#BritishGP ** #F1
Pirelli to investigate
Formula 1's official tyre supplier Pirelli has launched a '360 degree' investigation to find the cause of these embarrassing and unsafe tyre failures. Pirelli's Mario Isola commented, "We will obviously investigate what happened in the last few laps. It's a bit early now to give you any conclusion. It could be high wear, because for sure tyres with 38 laps or more on this circuit are quite worn, but I'm not saying that the wear is the cause of the issue. It can be debris, because we had the pieces of the front wing of Kimi (Raikkonen) that were on track, but also some other debris."
The second race at Silverstone is at the coming weekend - called the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix. To spice up on-track action and tyre strategies for this race, Pirelli will bring a set of tyres that is a step softer than the ones used for the 2020 British Grand Prix. The Italian tyre manufacturer confirmed that their selection won't change despite the failures this weekend. This could mean that the upcoming race will be two-stopper, but the teams will exercise more caution when deploying a strategy that would require their drivers to push the tyres closer to the end of their life. And of course, end of tyre life should mean a loss of grip and not an out-and-out blow-out!
Interestingly, drivers were forced to pit for the hard tyre earlier than expected after Daniil Kvyat's crash brought out the safety car on lap 12. There were seven drivers who made their hard tyre last the remaining 40 laps of the race while Hamilton, Sainz and Bottas' hard tyre lasted only 39, 38 and 37 laps respectively.
NOW PLAYING ?? 'British Grand Prix: Wildest Finish'#BritishGP ** #F1 pic.twitter.com/I8ZeRdvVcT
Bottas' bad luck
A no-score for Bottas saw his gap to Hamilton in the drivers' championship go from 5 to 30 points. Irrespective of how many races make up the 2020 Formula 1 season, in just the first four races of the season, Bottas' championship hopes have reached a moment where he requires a DNF or no-score from Hamilton to get himself back in title contention. Despite Mercedes' dominance, the team has scored only a single 1-2 finish (2020 Styrian Grand Prix) this season. Even if Bottas wins and Hamilton finishes second, it will take the Finn five races to grab the lead from Hamilton (not taking fastest lap points into account). Unfortunately for Bottas, he is yet to score back-to-back wins in his Formula 1 career let alone five race wins on the trot.
In the 2020 British Grand Prix and before the tyre troubles, there were two moments when it seemed as though Bottas should have been more aggressive with Hamilton. The first moment was at the race start where Bottas had a better launch than Hamilton and was almost alongside at the entry of turn 1. But instead of holding ground or muscling his way and making it a tad difficult for his team-mate, Bottas lifted off and let Hamilton through. The second moment was at both the safety car restarts where Bottas was busy fending off Verstappen in third rather than chasing down Hamilton for first.
That was a wild ride in the end * @Max33Verstappen clearly wanted a photo finish ** #BritishGP ** #F1 pic.twitter.com/iWU5JILkxx
- Aston Martin Red Bull Racing (@redbullracing) August 2, 2020
Could Verstappen have won?
Two laps to the end of the race, Red Bull Racing decided to pit Verstappen for the soft tyre. At the moment, Verstappen's gap to Leclerc (in fourth) afforded him a free stop and one assumed that the team-driver had accepted that 3rd was as high as they could finish. It was understandable that they decided to chase the extra point for the fastest lap of the race by taking on the softer rubber. Unfortunately for Verstappen, Hamilton's tyre was undone after his pit-stop and the Dutch driver was left to chase down a 34 second gap on the final lap - one that would have been around 14 seconds had he not pitted. At the flag, Verstappen finished 5.8 seconds behind Hamilton.
Christian Horner explained his team's actions, "You could say we were a little unlucky to miss out on the victory today but congratulations to Mercedes who have a very dominant car and it would have been a lucky win. Towards the end of the race Max's tyres weren't in great shape, so when (Valtteri) Bottas had his puncture there was no guarantee Max would have got to the end of the race so it was wise to pit for new rubber. I think we have to be grateful to have benefitted from Valtteri's misfortune and we can be happy with this result."
Ciao Tifosi, @Charles_Leclerc has a message for you ??#BritishGP ** #essereFerrari * #Charles16 pic.twitter.com/JOCMT763xz
- Scuderia Ferrari (@ScuderiaFerrari) August 2, 2020
Leclerc's unexpected podium
The 2020 Formula 1 season is one of Ferrari's worst starts to a season in many years. The team has acknowledged their car's flaws and the fact that their fight is in the midfield rather than at the front with Mercedes or Red Bull Racing. Despite having the fourth or fifth fastest car on an average this season, Leclerc has scored two podiums in the first four races. After qualifying a surprise fourth, Leclerc ran a clean race and was the first to benefit from Bottas and Sainz's misfortunes. In contrast, Sebastian Vettel struggled with car balance all weekend to finish a lowly 10th place.
While the podium should lift the team's morale in a challenging season, the truth also is that Leclerc finished 18-odd seconds behind Hamilton's race-winning Mercedes - this is after Hamilton lost 23 seconds on the final lap! Ironically for Leclerc, each time he's finished a race in a points scoring position this season, he's been on the podium. In the drivers' championship, Leclerc is in a surprise fifth place while Vettel lies only 13th. As for Ferrari, they are fourth in the constructors' championship - Mercedes, Red Bull Racing and Mclaren occupying the top-3.
What a #BritishGP, final results*:P4, Daniel P6, Esteban #RSspirit pic.twitter.com/rtfMOk4WjI
- Renault F1 Team (@RenaultF1Team) August 2, 2020
Mclaren and Renault better Racing Point
After shocking everyone with their pace in the early rounds, Racing Point failed to extract similar performance from their car at their home race in Silverstone. The team's chances received a setback after Sergio Perez tested positive for COVID-19 and had to sit out of the race. The team recalled Nico Hulkenberg as his substitute only to fail to get his car to start the race on Sunday. After an impressive few races in Hungary and Austria, Lance Stroll could only manage 9th and was beaten by the two Renaults and Norris' Mclaren.
In their earlier avatar as the Force India F1 Team, the team was heralded as the sport's super-achieving underdog. However, the Racing Point F1 Team has been this season's underachiever yet as the team has failed to convert their pace advantage into a podium finish or a significant points haul. The team's highest points score was 18 points at the 2020 Hungarian Grand Prix - while their mid-field rivals Mclaren (26 points, Austria), Ferrari (19 points, Austria) and Renault (20 points, Silverstone) have managed more.
After scoring only four points each in the opening three races, Renault went five times better at Silverstone after Daniel Ricciardo finished fourth followed by Esteban Ocon in sixth. Ricciardo's late race overtake on Mclaren's Lando Norris and Ocon's overtake on Stroll were noteworthy not to mention Pierre Gasly's gutsy drive to seventh. As for Mclaren, the team would have scored a fourth and sixth place had it not been for Sainz's tyre issues. The 10 extra points would have brought them closer to Red Bull Racing for second place in the constructors' championship. With Alexander Albon failing to score consistently this season, one wonders if Mclaren can get their nose in the fight for second place.
P4?from P12 on the grid...The race came alive after the safety car at the end....Really enjoyed myself and had a lot of fun overtaking** Thanks to the team for the call on the tyres #redbulljuniorteam @carlinracing @FIA_F2 @_winway @pap_sc pic.twitter.com/DkhfQJV43B
- Jehan Daruvala (@DaruvalaJehan) August 2, 2020
Daruvala's best finish in F2
Red Bull Racing junior and Indian driver Jehan Daruvala drove a spirited race and pulled off feisty overtakes in Race 2 (sprint race) of the Formula 2 championship. Despite starting and running in 12th for most of the race, Daruvala's team made a smart strategy call under the late-race safety car to switch to fresh rubber. The Red Bull Racing junior made the most of this opportunity as he demoted his rivals with every passing lap including a last lap overtake on Nikita Mazepin to claim 4th place at the chequered flag - his best finish in Formula 2.
Also See: Formula 1 2020: Lewis Hamilton grabs pole position at British GP qualifying ahead of teammate Valtteri Bottas
Formula 1 2020: Only Valtteri Bottas can stop Lewis Hamilton from winning the driver's championship, say Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel, Charles Leclerc
Formula 1 2020: Red Bull's Max Verstappen says to finish second at Hungarian GP 'was like a victory'
Read more on Sports by Firstpost.
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Infinite Volume
by Jessica Redmond September 4, 20204:35 pm
SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE: Israeli Prog Outfit Presents Cover Of Phil Collins’ “Another Day In Paradise” With Guest Lineup + Band Featured In New Metal Video Game
During these trying and unsure times, Israeli progressive metal outfit SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE presents an all-star tribute to Phil Collins’s classic “Another Day In Paradise.”
SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE‘s rendition of “Another Day In Paradise” is dedicated to fighting the COVID-19 music industry crisis, and includes performances from more than twenty leading participants, all from the contemporary Israeli metal and rock scene, including members of Orphaned Land and more.
Together, these talents coalesce into a bold, Middle Eastern, symphonic-rock-themed song that calls for unity in this time of crisis. The track comes in the form of a video clip which features the entire band and their massive cast of guests performing the track from their own respective homes.
Using the cover to revive the culture and music scene in Israel after months in quarantine and without live performances since March due to COVID-19, the band writes, “Israel at the moment is ranked as one of the most COVID-19-inflamed countries in the world, as well as facing a large political war with hopes to change the face of the nation. This song is bringing all of us together, keeping culture alive and calling the metal community to support each other and its artists, a message of peace, diversity, and mutual respect.
From March 2020 all shows are cancelled in Israel and the Israeli metal musicians are not allowed to enter the EU to tour and earn their main livelihood from European live shows. SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE is dedicating this song to all of the musicians out there losing their jobs, to all of the people out there fighting for a change and to all of the audience out there – stay safe stay metal and hopefully see you soon!”
SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE‘s “Another Day In Paradise” All Star Team includes the full band lineup – vocalist Davidavi Dolev, keyboard player Shai Yallin, bassist Golan Farhi, drummer Jonathan Amar, and the triple guitar attack of Tomer Pink, Or Shalev, and Omer Fishbein – as well as guest vocalists Alon Karnieli (Sinnery), Noa Gruman (Scardust, Hellscore), Lev Kerzner (Oceans On Orion), Oz Avneya (Obsidian Tide), Bruno Passy (Dog For A Son, Vessel), Israel Papa (Unleash The Pain), Dor Rosental (Ma’anish), Dorin Hajon (Zad), Adi Bitran (Orpheus Blade), and guest instrumentalists Idan Amsalem (Orphaned Land) on bouzouki, Daniel Sassi (Storchi, Yossi Sassi Orchestra) playing flutes, Yuval Gur (Avadon) providing violins, and Alexandra Marcu (Tillian) on cello.
SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE‘s lead vocalist Davidavi Dolev has also joined the cast of a revolutionary metal video game, Of Bird & Cage. The singer was invited to dub a leading voice role in the game, joining forces together with singers Kobra Paige (Kobra & the Lotus) and Danny Warsnop (Asking Alexandria), as well as instrumentalists Ron “Bumblefoot” Thal (Sons Of Apollo, ex-Guns N’ Roses), Rob Van Der Loo (Epica), Ruud Jolie (Within Temptation), and many others.
Dolev, being a relatively new face in the international metal scene, plays the main antagonist’s role Bress Lupus, a dark character with malicious intentions and a twisted sense for justice. The trailer for the game and the list of artists involved were unveiled during Gamescom, the world’s biggest gaming convention, by the Israeli Indie Company Capricia Productions and Polish publisher All In.
See the trailer for Of Bird & Cage HERE.
These new developments come as SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE prepares to release their new full-length, Mountain Fever, in early 2021, their first release for new label home, US-based Sensory Records.
Their fourth LP, and sixth overall release, Mountain Fever was recorded between Golan Heights to Fascination Street Studio (engineered by David Castillo) and mixed by Jens Bogren (Leprous, Katatonia, Opeth). Here, SUBTERRANEAN MASQUERADE continues pushing the balance between pioneering experimentalism to their own take on modern pop culture and its manifestation in the Middle East. Revealing an album comprised of African and Balkan brass sections, Arabic violins, extended vocal techniques, and several special guest appearances, the band explores radio friendly hooks that emerge out of heavy riffs and polychromatic arrangements.
Watch for an official release date for Mountain Fever to be announced alongside full audio samples and much more over the coming months.
Tagged with: Another Day In Paradise Bird & Cage Cover Infinite Volume Mag Israel Music New Release Phil Collins progressive rock Rock Subterranean Masquerade
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Home | Islamic Lifestyle | Defending Islam | China’s Concentration Camps: Uyghur Muslims
China’s Concentration Camps: Uyghur Muslims
Data leak sheds light on how China ‘brainwashes’ Uyghur Muslims
Leaked documents from China’s Communist Party expose the brainwashing taking place inside high-security internment camps for Muslims in the country’s tightly controlled Xinjiang region.
The so-called China Cables were obtained by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), a US-based donor-funded reporting outlet, and shared with 17 media partners for publication on Sunday.
The documents lift the lid on conditions for about a million members of the Muslim Uyghur community in the far western region who are thought to be detained without trial and forced to undergo indoctrination.
China’s government has repeatedly said the camps offer voluntary education and training to help stamp out so-called “Islamic extremism”. Beijing’s envoy to the UK told the BBC, one of the ICIJ’s media partners, that the documents were fake news.
The files “include a classified list of guidelines” approved by top Chinese officials for running camps and a “massive data collection and analysis system that uses artificial intelligence” to help round up suspect Xinjiang residents, said ICIJ reporter Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian.
“The system is able to amass vast amounts of intimate personal data through warrantless manual searches, facial recognition cameras, and other means to identify candidates for detention, flagging for investigation hundreds of thousands merely for using certain popular mobile phone apps,” wrote Allen-Ebrahimian.
“The documents detail explicit directives to arrest Uyghurs with foreign citizenship and to track Xinjiang Uyghurs living abroad, some of whom have been deported back to China by authoritarian governments.”
Earlier this month, another trove of Chinese government documents leaked to the New York Times daily revealed details about Beijing’s fears over religious extremism and its wholesale crackdown on Uyghurs.
This latest revelation is not new and forms part of a wide scale systemic repression and persecution of Uyghur Muslims. Several human rights organisations and experts have raised concerns surrounding the Chinese government’s actions against the minority community.
According to UN experts and activists, China is holding over one million people, particularly Uyghur Muslims, in detention centres. However, China describes these camps as “re-education camps” aiming to “stamp out ‘extremism’ and give [Uyghur Muslims] new skills.”
The Uyghur Muslims that are not detained and thrown into concentration camps and are instead faced with scrutiny from the security forces. This includes but is not limited to armed checkpoints, ID cards and facial recognition cameras.
China is said to have also deployed over a million spies to closely monitor the activity of Uyghur Muslims. According to a Communist party officer, the spies visit Uyghur households and during their visits they work, eat, and frequently share a bed with their “hosts”.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the officer who oversees between 70 to 80 Uyghur families, Yengisar county said, “They stay with their paired relatives day and night”.
He added that “normally one or two people sleep in one bed, and if the weather is cold, three people sleep together”.
China’s ‘Xinjiang’ region is home to some 10 million Uyghurs. The Turkic Muslim group, which accounts for roughly 45% of ‘Xinjiang’s’ total population, has long accused the Chinese authorities of political, economic, and cultural discrimination.
Over the last two years, China has subjected the region to increasingly draconian restrictions, including banning men from growing beards and women from wearing veils. The country has also introduced, what many observers see as, the world’s most extensive electronic surveillance program, according to reports in The Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, as least one million people – roughly 7% of Xinjiang’s Muslim population – have been incarcerated in an ever-expanding network of “political re-education” camps, according to both US and UN officials.
May Allāh (subḥānahu wa taʿālā) free all of our brothers and sisters from oppression, forgive our shortcomings and give us the tawfīq to get to work. Āmīn.
China’s Concentration Camps: What Can We Do?
Source: www.islam21c.com
[1] AA
[2] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-uighur-muslim-people-move-homes-xinjiang-china-religion-a8648561.html
[3] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-xinjiang-rights-exclusive/exclusive-west-japan-rebuke-china-at-un-for-detention-of-uighurs-idUSKCN1U51E1
[4] https://www.islam21c.com/news-views/prominent-uyghur-writer-dies-at-chinese-internment-camp/
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Colony distribution and prey diversity of Cerceris fumipennis (Hymenoptera, Crabronidae) in British Columbia
Troy Kimoto‡, Josie Roberts§, Richard L. Westcott|, Eduard Jendek¶, Matthias Buck#, David Holden‡, Philip D. Careless¤
‡ Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Burnaby, Canada
§ CFIA, Victoria, Canada
| Oregon Department of Agriculture, Salem, United States of America
¶ Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Ottawa, Canada
# Royal Alberta Museum, Canada
¤ University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
Corresponding author: Troy Kimoto ( troy.kimoto@inspection.gc.ca )
Academic editor: Jack Neff
© 2015 Troy Kimoto, Josie Roberts, Richard L. Westcott, Eduard Jendek, Matthias Buck, David Holden, Philip D. Careless.
Citation: Kimoto T, Roberts J, Westcott R, Jendek E, Buck M, Holden D, Careless P (2015) Colony distribution and prey diversity of Cerceris fumipennis (Hymenoptera, Crabronidae) in British Columbia. Journal of Hymenoptera Research 46: 45-59. https://doi.org/10.3897/JHR.46.5644
ZooBank: urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:25A79550-C555-4BC8-807D-C66E0ADC3B35
Cerceris fumipennis Say, 1837 (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae) is a wasp that provisions its subterranean nests with jewel beetles (Coleoptera: Buprestidae). At 3 newly discovered colonies in British Columbia (BC), C. fumipennis prey were collected by excavating the subterranean nests, using sweep nets to capture paralyzed prey in the grasp of a female returning to her nest, or collecting prey discarded at the nest entrance. In total, 9 species were collected: Acmaeodera idahoensis Barr, Agrilus crataegi Frost, Agrilus granulatus populi Fisher, Anthaxia (Haplanthaxia) caseyi caseyi Obenberger, Chrysobothris laricis Van Dyke, Chrysobothris leechi Barr, Phaenops drummondi (Kirby), Phaenops gentilis (LeConte) and Phaenops intrusa (Horn). Anthaxia caseyi caseyi was the smallest beetle (4.2 mm) while C. leechi was the largest (12.0 mm). The average size of all buprestid prey taken by females from all 3 colonies was 8.8 mm. These represent the first prey records for C. fumipennis in BC and with the exception of P. drummondi are new prey records for this wasp. A single Harpalus affinis (Schrank) (Coleoptera: Carabidae) was discovered within a brood cell containing Acmaeodera spp. elytra, but it is unclear if this beetle was placed in the cell by a female wasp.
Cerceris fumipennis, Hymenoptera, Crabronidae, biosurveillance, pest detection
Cerceris fumipennis Say, 1837 (Hymenoptera: Crabronidae) is a ground-nesting wasp in which females provision their nests with paralysed buprestid beetles in jelly bean shaped subterranean cells (Scullen 1965; Hook and Evans 1991; Marshall et al. 2005). In Canada, colonies have been discovered in western Québec and throughout southern Ontario (Buck 2004; Marshall et al. 2005; Careless et al. 2009; Careless 2010). In 2012 and 2013, a total of 1 male and 4 females were captured by sweep net at a colony in Merritt, British Columbia (BC) (Kimoto and Buck 2015). This represents the first time C. fumipennis has been recorded from BC since 1935 (2 females collected by R.H. Beamer on 3 August 1935; University of Kansas Natural History Museum, Lawrence, Kansas, US) and also represents the first recorded colony.
Female Cerceris fumipennis are adept at capturing a wide variety of buprestid beetles, and have been the source for various new provincial, state and national records (Marshall et al. 2005). Therefore, it has been used in eastern North America by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) and other departments as a biosurveillance tool to detect the non-indigenous emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) (Marshall et al. 2006; Careless et al. 2009; Nalepa et al. 2012; Careless et al. 2014). In the eastern US, citizen-scientist programs have been established whereby colonies are “adopted” and monitored by the public. In 2012, an adopted C. fumipennis colony was responsible for the first state record of emerald ash borer in Connecticut (Rutledge et al. 2013). It is the intention of the senior author to establish citizen-scientist programs in BC to detect non-indigenous buprestid beetles, but additional colonies need to be discovered before this can occur.
In 2013 and 2014, additional sites from the Greater Vancouver Region, the Fraser Canyon, and the Okanagan Valley were examined for the presence of Cerceris fumipennis colonies. This paper outlines the variety of sites examined, the location of two new colonies and first prey records for C. fumipennis in BC.
Searching for Cerceris colonies
In 2013, 13 sites in Ashcroft, Spence’s Bridge, Cache Creek, Skihist, Boston Bar, Vernon, and West Kelowna were examined. In 2014, 85 sites in Kamloops, West Kelowna, Coldstream, Vernon, Osoyoos, Oliver, Okanagan Falls, Penticton, Summerland, Chilliwack, Merritt, Logan Lake, Lytton, Hope, Coquihalla Highway, Kane Valley Road, Cloverdale, Lillooet, Duffy Lake Road, Richmond, Ashcroft, Cache Creek, Clinton, Hat Creek, and Pavilion were examined.
Google Maps (2014) was used to find baseball fields and other areas with bare patches of soil exposed to full sun. The ground at each site was examined for the presence of circular holes and tumuli. Where possible, the central location of the Merritt colony was used to reinforce the search image of nest entrance shape and size. When entrance holes approximately 5–7 mm in diameter were discovered, clear plastic cups were placed over these holes and returning wasps were captured in sweep nets. Specimens were placed in glass vials with 75% ethanol and submitted to Matthias Buck for identification and deposited at the Royal Alberta Museum in Edmonton.
Collecting Cerceris fumipennis prey at nest entrances
Beetles were collected at Cerceris fumipennis colonies during 4 days in July and 2 days in August 2014. Clear plastic cups were placed over entrance holes and a sweep net was used to collect female wasps returning with prey. The nest entrances and completely enclosed tumuli were also examined for dropped prey.
Cerceris fumipennis nest excavation
On 25 July 2014, a single nest at the north end of St. Georges Road, Lytton was excavated. Using a trowel, soil around the nest entrance was removed and placed onto a cleared area. The soil was carefully broken into smaller pieces. Upon discovering a cell containing buprestid beetles or wasp cocoons, a tape measure was used to determine the depth below the surface. The contents of each cell was described and recorded. On 7 August 2014, a single nest that was at least 2 feet away from any other visible Cerceris fumipennis nest entrances was excavated at the Central Park colony in Merritt. Methodology followed that used in Lytton. On August 11, an additional 4 nests were excavated in Merritt, but the depth at which buprestid specimens were discovered was not recorded.
All beetles collected at the nest entrances and during excavation were placed in 100% USP/FCC propylene glycol and sent to the CFIA entomology laboratory in Victoria where they were identified and their length measured, to the nearest one tenth mm, using a Leica microscope (DFC495) along with Leica Applications Suite 4.1. These specimens were pinned, labelled and then sent to Eduard Jendek and Richard Westcott for confirmation of species determination.
One soil sample immediately adjacent to (Lillooet) or within (Merritt, Lytton) a known Cerceris fumipennis nest was collected from each of the 3 colonies. Approximately 50 g of air-dried soil was submitted to the British Columbia Ministry of Environment to assess soil texture (sand, silt and clay composition) and organic content (2 mm sieve pass, loss on ignition).
New colonies
Thirteen sites were examined in 2013 and 85 sites were examined from 30 June to 29 July 2014 (Table 1). Thirty percent of all sites were baseball fields (red shale), 22% were dirt roads (compact soil), 8% were baseball fields (compact soil) and 6% were parking lots (compact soil). On 11 July 2014, one female Cerceris fumipennis was captured in a sweep net in a dirt parking lot at the north end of St. Georges Road in Lytton. This colony occurs a few hundred metres north of the Stein Valley Nlakapamux School in compact sand adjacent to a baseball field (Fig. 1). A few ant nests but no C. fumipennis nests were observed in this baseball diamond. Two females were also captured on 17 July 2014 in a sweep net at a dirt parking lot, comprised of compact sand, adjacent to P’egp’ig’lha Community Centre in Lillooet (Fig. 2). Table 2 and Figure 3 provide additional information and show the relative location of each colony. As per the previous description of C. fumipennis specimens from BC (Kimoto and Buck 2015), the average fore wing length of the Lytton and Lillooet specimens is approximately 10.5 mm which is within the lower range of eastern specimens. Lytton and Lillooet occur within the Ponderosa Pine biogeoclimatic zone which is characterized by very warm, dry summers and cool winters with light snow cover (Anonymous 2007). Large diameter (+45 cm dbh) ponderosa pine, Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex. Lawson and C. Lawson (Pinaceae), is the most common tree at both sites, with declining and dead pine observed near the Lytton colony. Some hardwood trees were observed within a few hundred metres of the Lytton colony, while both sites also contained woody shrubs. The Lytton colony occurs at the junction of the northern portion of the Cascade Mountains and the eastern edge of the Coast Mountains. The Lillooet colony occurs within the eastern limits of the Coast Mountains while the Merritt colony lies within the Thompson Plateau (Holland 1976). Including the Merritt colony, a total of 99 sites was examined but only 3 C. fumipennis colonies have been discovered in BC resulting in a 3% success rate.
Cerceris fumipennis colony north of the Stein Valley Nlakapamux School, Lytton, BC.
Cerceris fumipennis colony adjacent to the P’egp’ig’lha Community Centre, Lillooet, BC.
Map showing the location of the 3 Cerceris fumipennis colonies.
Table 1.Download as CSV
List of sites examined for Cerceris colonies in BC, excluding Central Park, Merritt.
Number of sites examined
C. fumipennis colonies
2013 Dirt roads, parking lots Gravel 1 0
Baseball fields Red shale 4 0
Baseball fields Compact sand 2 0
Baseball fields Loose sand 1 0
Running ovals Gravel 2 0
School yard Gravel 2 0
Field Compact sand 1 0
Dirt road Compact sand 22 0
Parking lot Compact sand 6 2
Baseball fields Red shale 25 0
Running ovals Compact sand 1 0
Equestrian centre Loose sand or gravel 3 0
Airstrip Gravel or compact sand 2 0
Campground Gravel 4 0
Picnic site Gravel 1 0
Beach (lake) Loose sand 1 0
Cemetery Gravel, compact sand 1 0
Natural area (desert) Covered in vegetation 1 0
Misc. open area Loose sand 1 0
Site description of the 3 Cerceris fumipennis colonies in BC.
Geographic coordinates (DD)
Central Park Merritt 3 August 2012 Dirt path 50.11875N, -120.78348W 599
Stein Valley Nlakapamux School Lytton 11 July 2014 Parking lot 50.27161N, -121.60358W 220
P’egp’ig’lha Community Centre Lillooet 17 July 2014 Parking lot 50.67669N, -121.94610W 1136
The following wasps were also collected in sweep nets at the 3 Cerceris fumipennis colonies. Crabronidae: Bembix americana Fabricius (Lytton), Cerceris nigrescens Smith (Merritt), Ectemnius dilectus (Cresson) (Merritt), Philanthus multimaculatus Cameron (Lytton), Tachytes sayi Banks (Lytton), and Zanysson texanus (Cresson) (Lillooet). Chrysididae: Parnopes edwardsii (Cresson) (Lillooet). Halictidae: Agapostemon sp. (Merritt). Megachilidae: Coelioxys sp. (Lytton). Sphecidae: Ammophila azteca Cameron (Lytton). Vespidae: Polistes dominula (Christ) (Merritt, Lytton). However, Cerceris californica Cresson, another wasp known to prey upon buprestids (Scullen 1965) and previously recorded from British Columbia, was neither observed nor collected at any of the examined sites.
Prey collected at nest entrances
The majority of jewel beetles were collected at the Merritt colony and included Chrysobothris leechi Barr (Fig. 4), C. laricis Van Dyke, Agrilus crataegi Frost, Phaenops drummondi (Kirby) and P. intrusa (Horn). Anthaxia caseyi caseyi Obenberger was collected at the Lillooet colony. This specimen was discovered lying within a collapsed nest entrance covered with soil. Two other collapsed nest entrances were also covered by soil, but buprestid beetles were not observed.
Two discarded Chrysobothris leechi at 2 different nest entrances, 11 July 2014, Merritt, BC.
Nest excavation
A 30.5 × 30.5 × 20 cm hole was dug at the Lytton site. Between ground level and 10 cm below grade, fly pupae and other insect larvae were collected within 4 cells. Based on the presence of wasp cocoons and/or buprestids, Cerceris fumipennis cells were discovered from a depth of 10 to 20 cm. In total, 17 C. fumipennis cells were discovered, with most occurring 14 to 18 cm below the surface. Eleven cells contained a single C. fumipennis cocoon, but only fragments remained in the other cells. All cells with the exception of one located at a depth of 15.25 cm only contained buprestid body parts; primarily Acmaeodera spp. and Phaenops spp. elytra were uncovered. The jelly bean-shaped cell at 15.25 cm contained 4 buprestids wrapped together of which only 3 could be identified as Phaenops gentilis (LeConte). Acmaeodera idahoensis Barr and P. drummondi were also collected during excavation of this nest. One Harpalus affinis (Schrank) (Coleoptera: Carabidae) was discovered within another cell at 15.25 cm that also contained Acmaeodera spp. elytra. A similar sized hole was dug on 7 August 2015 at the Central Park colony. The first C. fumipennis cell was uncovered at a depth of 9.5 cm and the last cells were 15.3 cm below grade. Half the cells were located between 12.7 and 15.3 cm beneath the surface. In total, 23 C. fumipennis cells were uncovered of which 13 had intact cocoons (2) or cocoon fragments (11). Only the cells at 12.7 and 14 cm below grade contained intact buprestids, Anthaxia caseyi caseyi. Otherwise all other cells contained elytra or other buprestid body parts primarily belonging to Agrilus and Anthaxia spp. During nest excavation on 11 August 2014, intact specimens of Agrilus granulatus populi Fisher, A. caseyi caseyi, Chrysobothris leechi and P. drummondi were collected.
In total 9 buprestid species were collected at the Merritt, Lillooet and Lytton colonies (Table 3). The smallest beetle was Anthaxia caseyi caseyi (4.2 mm) while the largest was Chrysobothris leechi (12.0 mm). The average size of all buprestid prey from all 3 colonies is 8.8 mm. All beetles have been archived in the Pacific Forestry Centre Arthropod Collection (PFCA, Victoria, BC) which is part of Natural Resources Canada-Canadian Forest Service.
Average length of C. fumipennis prey from largest to smallest. Measurements were not recorded for A. idahoensis and P. gentilis as their heads were missing. *New prey record for C. fumipennis.
Average length (mm)
Chrysobothris leechi* 10.5 (n=10)
Chrysobothris laricis* 9.8 (n=1)
Agrilus granulatus populi* 8.7 (n=4)
Phaenops drummondi 8.2 (n=5)
Phaenops intrusa* 7.5 (n=1)
Agrilus crataegi* 6.7 (n=1)
Anthaxia caseyi caseyi* 4.7 (n=3)
Acmaeodera idahoensis* N/A (1 specimen)
Phaenops gentilis* N/A (3 specimens)
Silt comprised 66.6% of the soil from the Merritt colony, while sand comprised 59.6 and 80.9% of the soil from the Lillooet and Lytton colonies, respectively. Clay comprised 21.8% of the soil from Merritt, but only 3.8 and 6.3% of the soil from Lytton and Lillooet, respectively. All of the soil components from Merritt were less than 2 mm in any dimension, while 99 and 99.3% of soil constituents from Lytton and Lillooet passed through the 2 mm sieve. The organic content of all 3 soils is similar with 2.0 – 2.2 % loss on ignition (Table 4).
Soil characteristics of the Lillooet, Lytton and Merritt colonies.
2 mm Sieve Pass %
Loss on Ignition %
% Sand
% Silt
% Clay
Merritt 11.6 66.6 21.8 100 2.2
Lillooet 59.6 34.1 6.3 99.3 2.0
Lytton 80.9 15.3 3.8 99.0 2.0
Lytton and Lillooet represent 2 newly discovered Cerceris fumipennis colonies in BC. Eleven other species of wasps, including C. nigrescens, were collected at the Merritt, Lillooet and Lytton colonies; yet C. californica was not among them. A tremendous amount of time and resources were used to examine multiple sites from 2012 to 2014, yet only 3 C. fumipennis colonies have been discovered, resulting in a 3% success rate. Compared to a 22% success rate in finding C. fumipennis colonies in Connecticut, North Carolina and Maine (Nalepa et al. 2012), it appears that colonies are less common in BC. The northernmost colony in Ontario is in Parry Sound District (MacDougall Public School, 45.39861°N) (P.D. Careless, personal observation) which is substantially further south than all 3 BC colonies. Lillooet (50.67669°N) represents the most northern North American colony to date. The annual number of degree days above 5 °C in Lillooet is 2387.8 compared to 1702.4 in Beatrice, ON, which is the weather station closest to Parry Sound (Anonymous 2015). As colonies can occur at sites in Ontario that are cooler than Lillooet, there may be additional colonies further north in BC.
Unlike Cerceris californica in Washington state (Looney et al. 2014) or C. fumipennis in eastern North America (Nalepa et al. 2012; Careless et al. 2014), none of the BC colonies were discovered in baseball fields. Most baseball fields in southwestern BC are comprised of red shale containing many rock fragments which is likely a poor nesting substrate for C. fumipennis (Fig. 5). All 3 colonies occur within compact sand parking lots (Lytton and Lillooet) or compact silt pathways (Merritt) with full sun exposure throughout the day (Figs 1, 2). The colonies occur in the 2 biogeoclimatic zones, Bunchgrass and Ponderosa Pine, with the warmest and driest summers in BC. The Bunchgrass zone is generally characterized by widely spaced Pseudoroegneria spicata (Pursh) Á. Löve (bluebunch wheatgrass) and Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (big sagebrush) although ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir, Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco (Pinaceae), also occur in this zone. The Ponderosa Pine zone consists of very open, park-like stands of ponderosa pine with an understory of bluebunch wheatgrass (Anonymous 2007). Both zones have a sparse distribution of trees, allowing many areas to receive full sun throughout many summer days. The nesting areas in Merritt and Lytton both occur on a slight incline that assists in drainage. There is very little similarity in soils between the 3 sites. Merritt is predominantly silt (66.6%) and has the largest component of clay at 21.8%. Lytton is primarily sand (80.9%), and Lillooet is 59.6% sand and 34.1% silt. Further analysis is required to determine if there are specific constituents required for nesting or if there are other factors that play a more significant influence in nest site selection. Three additional sites in Merritt with suspect Cerceris entrance holes were excavated, but Cerceris nests were not present and the substrate consisted of substantially more and larger pebbles.
Red shale typically found in baseball fields in southwestern BC. Note 2 ant nests.
Recently, archived Cerceris fumipennis specimens have been discovered in the WallisRoughley Museum (University of Manitoba) and the Strickland Museum (University of Alberta). These specimens were collected in Spruce Woods Provincial Park, MB and Writing-on-Stone Provincial Park, AB and resemble the eastern race of C. fumipennis in size and colouration. Both sites are further south than the Lillooet colony. Perhaps Cerceris fumipennis is more cold tolerant than C. californica, thus explaining its distribution within many of Canada’s provinces whereas the latter occurs in western North America where winters are relatively short and mild.
A total of 9 buprestid species were collected at the 3 Cerceris fumipennis colonies. Chrysobothris leechi was the most common intact beetle collected, followed by Phaenops drummondi, Agrilus granulatus populi, Anthaxia caseyi caseyi, and P. gentilis. Single specimens of A. crataegi, P. intrusa, C. laricis and Acmaeodera idahoensis were also found at these C. fumipennis colonies. During nest excavation, buprestid-filled C. fumipennis cells occurred between 10 and 20 cm below the surface which is similar to nests in eastern North America (Careless et al. 2009). Since wasp larvae feed on paralyzed prey, body parts were collected more often than intact beetles during nest excavation thereby making species-level identification difficult if not impossible. Many Chrysobothris, Anthaxia and Acmaeodera elytra were found in the cells which could alter the actual ratio of species preyed upon by C. fumipennis. Population size, predatory avoidance behaviour, size of the beetle, and other factors will affect whether or not a beetle is suitable prey for C. fumipennis.
The size of Cerceris fumipennis prey ranged from 4.2 mm (Anthaxia caseyi caseyi) to 12.0 mm (Chrysobothris leechi). Chrysobothris leechi was not only the most common intact beetle collected, but on average it was the largest species at 10.5 mm. In comparison, Phaenops intrusa comprised over 70% of the prey taken by Cerceris californica Cresson in southcentral Washington (Looney et al. 2014). In New York State, C. fumipennis captured prey ranging in size from 4.1 to 18.9 mm (Hellman and Fierke 2014); the latter is 57% larger than the C. leechi found at the Merritt colony. Buprestis aurulenta (Linnaeus) is a relatively common and large buprestid (12–20 mm) occurring in southern BC that breeds within Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine (Furniss and Carolin 1977), yet it was not collected at any of the C. fumipennis colonies. Although only a handful of C. fumipennis specimens have been collected in BC, females appear to be within the lower size range (wing length 9.5–10.5 mm; n = 6) of their eastern counterparts (wing length 9.5–13.5 mm; n = 75) (Kimoto and Buck 2015). There is a positive linear relationship between the size of Cerceris arenaria L. and C. halone Banks with the size of the prey weevils collected (Byers 1978; Polidori et al. 2005). The smaller size C. fumipennis from BC has likely contributed to the smaller prey items captured by provisioning females.
All of these beetles represent the first prey records for Cerceris fumipennis in BC. Phaenops drummondi is a known prey of eastern C. fumipennis (Paiero et al. 2012); however, all the other species and subspecies (i.e. Agrilus granulatus populi) are new prey records for this wasp. Agrilus granulatus populi and P. intrusa are also prey of C. californica in Washington state (Looney et al. 2014). Based on the list of prey species it is almost certain that female C. fumipennis forage on shrubs, conifers, deciduous trees and possibly flowers in BC (Table 5).
Distribution and host records for C. fumipennis prey. Unless otherwise noted the information is based on Nelson et al. (2008). Some host names have been changed according to The Plant List (www.theplantlist.org/, accessed 3 March 2015).
Larval hosts
Acmaeodera idahoensis BC, WA, OR, CA, ID, NV, MT, WY, UT Celtis occidentalis
Cercocarpus ledifolius
Crataegus douglasii
Quercus garryana
*Adults occur on a variety of flowers, notably in the family Asteraceae.
Agrilus crataegi transcontinental Amelanchier alnifolia
Crataegus douglasii (Westcott 2005)
Agrilus granulatus populi NV (Solomon 1995), AB, BC, WA, OR, CA, ID, MT Populus trichocarpa
P. nigra
Anthaxia (Haplanthaxia) caseyi caseyi BC, WA, OR, CA, ID, MT, NV, AZ, UT Pinus coulteri
P. ponderosa
P. sabiniana
Chrysobothris laricis NWT, BC, AB, WA, OR, ID, MT, WY, UT, CO, NM, AZ No larval host recorded; however, adults found on a variety of trees in the family Pinaceae.
Chrysobothris leechi BC, AB, WA, OR, CA, ID, NV, MT Pinus aristata
Phaenops drummondi transcontinental A wide variety of trees in the family Pinaceae (MacRae and Westcott 2012).
Phaenops gentilis BC, Rocky Mountain and Pacific States, NE, SD Pinus spp.
Phaenops intrusa BC, WA, OR, CA, ID, NV, MT, CO, AZ, NE, SD Larix occidentalis
P. flexilis
P. lambertiana
One ground beetle, Harpalus affinis was collected in a cell at 15.23 cm below grade along with the elytra of Acmaeodera spp. As other carabids were not discovered anywhere else in the nest it is uncertain if Cerceris fumipennis intentionally captured and provisioned the cell with this beetle. In 2009 and 2010, female C. fumipennis in Connecticut, Maine and New York captured 3 chrysomelids, Neochlamisus bebbianae (Brown), Bassareus mammifer (Newman), Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Say); 1 scarab, Popillia japonica Newman; and 2 cerambycids, Saperda discoidea F., Oberea schaumii LeConte (Rutledge et al. 2011). Neochlamisus bebbianae, B. mammifer and P. japonica are shiny and similar in appearance to many jewel beetles, while S. discoidea and O. schaumii occur in tree canopies where C. fumipennis will forage. Therefore, collection of these non-prey items is understandable. Harpalus affinis is similar in length to some buprestids, however it looks different than most jewel beetles. Although adult H. affinis can fly, this specimen may have wandered into the nest entrance searching for prey or shelter. Until female wasps are intercepted carrying H. affinis back to their nests, this species can not be considered a prey item of C. fumipennis.
Despite a significant amount of time spent searching many sites, only 3 Cerceris fumipennis colonies have so far been discovered in BC; they seem to be less common than colonies in eastern North America. A total of 9 buprestid species are recorded here as prey items of BC C. fumipennis and with the exception of P. drummondi, are all new prey records for this wasp. The prey ranged in size from 4.2 to 12.0 mm and seem to be smaller than prey collected by eastern wasps. Cerceris fumipennis in BC appear to be smaller than specimens occurring east of the Rocky Mountains which may contribute to the difference in size of prey collected.
Tyler Kimoto assisted in excavating the Central Park, Merritt colony. Jeffrey Jarret (CFIA) identified Harpalus affinis. Darrell Finnigan, City of Merritt, provided permission to excavate the Central Park colony. Lee Humble, Natural Resources Canada – Canadian Forest Service, assisted in measuring buprestids. Mireille Marcotte, Robert Favrin and Wendy Laviolette, CFIA, provided financial and administrative support to conduct field work. Jacob Kanyaya, CFIA, generated the maps. Clive Dawson and Anette LaJeunesse, British Columbia Ministry of Environment, conducted soil analysis.
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« Trump accepts Obama’s birth was in the US, but the original birther theory was started by Clinton supporters in 2008
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The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks and faltering domestic demand
Reblogged with permission from Focus Economics
The sudden panic about a potentially imminent Italian banking sector collapse back in July has somewhat subsided for now, but sooner or later the issue will inevitably rear its ugly head again. Two months after Italian bank stocks collapsed even further in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, fears of an imminent need for a bail-in have receded as the Italian government works on plans to shore up its weakest bank, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS). This will be achieved via an alternative but rather ambitious method culminating—if all goes according to plan—in a new capital injection. However, MPS, which came up short in July’s ECB stress tests, has already received capital injections in the past. Such plans to patch up banks have tended to involve kicking the can down the road rather than providing a more definitive solution to the 360 EUR billion of non-performing loans (NPLs) weighing down Italy’s banking sector, equivalent to one fifth of its GDP. If a sustainable solution is not found to clean up Italian bank balance sheets in the near future, they will inevitably constrain domestic demand and thereby weigh on the country’s already feeble growth even further.
Domestic demand, the longstanding mainstay of the Italian economy, is already under intense pressure. In the second quarter, GDP failed to grow in quarter-on-quarter terms, primarily on the back of a broad-based deterioration in all components of domestic demand (private consumption, government consumption and fixed investment), which could not be offset by the unusually-positive contribution of the external sector to growth. The difficult climate for domestic demand in Italy is nothing new, since the austerity policies implemented in recent years have taken their toll and Italian governments have centered their efforts on trying to boost external demand instead in order to reverse the current account deficit Italy had until 2012 and keep it positive going forward. And yet private consumption has remained the main driver of Italy’s feeble economic recovery. Analysts foresee that the poorer-than-expected performance of domestic demand (especially private consumption) in the second quarter this year will be temporary, but its growth rate will nevertheless decelerate in 2017.
Our latest September Consensus Forecast for Italy, obtained by polling 37 local and international analysts, sees GDP growing a meagre 0.9% both this year and next, a figure which has in both cases been gradually revised down in recent months from the 1.2% forecasts for both years back in January. The panel are basing their growth projections primarily on modest improvements in consumer spending, albeit at a slower rate than initially expected, on the back of gradual gains in household disposable income fueled mainly by improving employment and low inflation. Domestic demand is forecast to contribute 1.1 percentage points to total growth this year (which will be dragged down slightly by a 0.2% contraction in the external sector), of which 0.7 percentage points will come from the strongest component, private consumption. In 2017, domestic demand is expected to decelerate and contribute 0.8 percentage points to growth while the external sector will pick up slightly. Of the domestic demand components, private consumption is seen remaining the main cornerstone of the tentative recovery next year, decelerating from 2016 but still contributing 0.5 percentage points to growth.
A failure to swiftly clean up bank balance sheets means domestic demand will inevitably suffer as bank credit supply constraints continue to prevent the recovery of investment. Loan-loss provisioning reduces the credit banks have available for lending, especially to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and consumers, which are perceived as risky. Arguably, analysts assessing the Italian banking sector are now most worried about the risk of chronically constrained growth rather than another systemic shock, as banks are trapped in a vicious circle whereby poor economic growth means bad loans keep growing, which in turn weigh on growth even further. The latest ECB stress tests showed that most Italian banks do have loss-absorbing capacity to withstand a theoretical three-year economic shock, but strong concerns remain about their profitability as NPLs reduce their lending ability and deter investors.
Moreover, this scenario of sustained weakness prolongs the risk of banks eventually being forced to resort to a bail-in. A recapitalization of the banking sector involving substantial losses for retail investors would strongly hit consumer confidence and spending, the backbone of Italy‘s economy, which analysts we surveyed foresee as remaining essential to its fragile recovery. For a country whose already weak economic growth is heavily dependent on domestic demand, this would therefore bode disaster, and not only for the individual citizens with affected bond holdings.
Italy’s banking sector woes
The Italian government is desperate to avoid any need for a bail-in, especially after the politically disastrous bail-ins of a handful of small regional banks last year. In this context, it has sought to reassure the markets that individual critical cases of weakness are contained and new capital can be raised without the need for individual investors to take a hit. But exactly how the overwhelming quantity of NPLs in the Italian banking sector will be dealt with is still far from clear. Italian banks have only made provisions to cover just under half of the 360 EUR billion NPLs weighing down their bank balance sheets, of which 201 EUR billion are already estimated by the IMF to be bad loans that will be irrecoverable. Plans such as that affecting MPS, where NPLs are to be offloaded into a securitization vehicle in an attempt to sell them to investors, would seem to be in line with the IMF’s recommendation that Italy build a robust market in NPLs. And yet many analysts consider such ambitions rather wishful thinking, especially since most of the bad loans on Italian bank balance sheets are uncollateralized loans to small businesses and consumers (in contrast to the mortgage NPLs that dominated Spanish and Irish bank balance sheets during their time of stress), and specialist NPL buyers tend to be more attracted to loans with easily recoverable, tangible collateral.
Moreover, if Italy is to create a functioning NPL market, banks will need to accept significant write-downs on their loans compared to their current book value. There is a sizeable discrepancy between banks’ valuations of the NPLs and the price they would get for them if they attempted to sell off the loans to specialist distressed debt players, which will create yet more of a gaping hole on bank balance sheets. The small private Atlante fund and its successor Atlante 2, set up by the Italian government to help participate in distressed banks’ recapitalization and also to buy NPLs from banks, are unlikely to be anywhere near large enough to resolve these problems.
To complicate matters further, holdings of bank bonds by retail investors are exceptionally high due to the longstanding practice in the country of selling (or rather mis-selling) bank bonds to ordinary citizens. An IMF report published back in July calculated that retail investors own about one third of around 600 EUR billion of senior bank bonds and nearly half of an estimated 60 EUR billion of subordinated bonds on the balance sheets of Italy’s 15 largest banks. Under the bail-in requirement of the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) in force since the start of this year, at least 8% of a failing bank’s total liabilities must be written off before state aid can be requested, if the EU enforces strict adherence to the rules (the Italian government has been investigating every possible loophole in case). In Italy, the IMF estimates that this requirement would hit the majority of subordinated bond holdings by retail investors in the fifteen largest banks and that it would also hit some of their senior debt holdings in two thirds of those cases.
After the experiences of massive publically-funded bank bailouts in countries such as the UK, Ireland and Spain during the height of the financial crisis, the whole idea behind the BRRD was to break the link between banking and sovereign risk and to stop putting taxpayers on the hook for private banking sector failures, making bank bondholders pay instead. But this assumes that the bondholders are institutional investors, and fails to take account of the specific circumstances of countries such as Italy where retail investors risk having their holdings wiped out too. In Italy’s case, many of the bank bondholders at risk are ordinary citizens and taxpayers, who were mis-sold bank debt as if it were as safe as placing their money in a savings account but with the added benefit of a much higher interest rate. In fact, retail investors are likely to be disproportionately affected compared to institutional investors, since individual citizens are usually sold more risky subordinated debt rather than its safer senior counterpart.
Reviving the risk of recession?
Unless concrete plans for how to create a functioning NPL market are devised, it is unclear how banks that need to recapitalize will be able to do so without ultimately ending up hurting at least some of their equity and subordinated debt holders. For a country where consumer spending is the cornerstone of an already weak recovery, imposing losses on retail investors, if they are not somehow exempted, would risk dampening consumer confidence to the extent that this could in itself push the country back into recession. This is before the wider downside risk implications of a struggling banking sector are even taken into consideration. Even if a bail-in remains avoidable, if banks are forced to use their own precious reserves to increase loan-loss provisions and capital buffers in the absence of any substantial state aid injection, this risks prolonging the Catch-22 of poor growth leading to a weak banking sector and vice versa.
Author: Caroline Gray, Senior Economics Editor
Tags: Italian banks
This entry was posted on September 22, 2016 at 7:50 pm and is filed under Economics, Economy, Italy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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Safari Packages
Tour Partners
Medical Requirements / Safety
Overview - Lake Nakuru National Park
Scenic Lake Nakuru is Kenya’s 3rd most popular national park. It offers good wildlife viewing with four of the Big Five present. The small park doesn’t support elephants, but rhinos are particularly easy to see. Lake Nakuru NP’s main feature is a large, shallow lake, which was famous for big flocks of flamingos. However, since 2012, conditions have become unfavorable for the flamingos and most have moved to other Rift Valley lakes, however, large flocks can still be seen here.
Flamingo (Greater and Lesser) and other water birds including a variety of terrestrial birds numbering about 450 species in total.
Mammals: 56 different species including white rhinos, waterbuck, etc.
View-points: Lion hill, Baboon cliff, and Out of Africa
Hills: Enasoit, Honeymoon, Lion hill ridge, etc
Waterfalls: Makalia
Unique vegetation: About 550 different plant species including the unique and biggest euphorbia forest in Africa, Picturesque landscape and yellow acacia woodlands.Cycle with rhino event every September yearly
Best Time To Go June to March
High Season July to March
Size 188 Sq KMs
“A beautiful wildlife haven” On the floor of the Great Rift Valley, surrounded by wooded and bushy grassland, lies the beautiful Lake Nakuru National Park. Visitors can enjoy the wide ecological diversity and varied habitats that range from Lake Nakuru itself to the surrounding escarpment and picturesque ridges. Lake Nakuru National Park is ideal for bird watching, hiking, picnic, and game drives.
June to February: Dry season
It is sunny and dry, but it rarely gets hot
Short grass and few water sources make animals easy to spot
The park gets very crowded and good sightings tend to attract a lot of vehicles
March to May: Wettest Season
Less crowded and low season rates may apply
The park is green, the skies are clear, and there are lots of flowers
Newborn animals can be seen
Wildlife viewing is still fine in the Wet season as the park is fenced and animals can’t move out
Best time for bird watching with migratory birds present
April can be very wet and rain might interfere with your game drives
The grass is long and animals are more difficult to spot
Lake Nakuru can be visited throughout the year, but wildlife viewing might be more difficult in April and May, which are the wettest months. At this time, rain might interfere with your game drives and the grass tends to be very high making animal spotting more difficult.
Best Time: June to March is best for general wildlife viewing and the best time to visit the park little rain is experienced during this period
Most big safari animals are present in Lake Nakuru NP with the exception of elephants. The park is known for its populations of black and white rhino. The white rhino is particularly common, and different groups can be encountered throughout the day. Hippo, waterbuck, Burchell's zebra, and Thomson's gazelle are common on the floodplains. Sometimes predators like Leopard and Lion may be spotted.
The relatively high altitude of the park makes the climate slightly colder than might be expected this close to the equator. Temperatures are quite mild though, and consistent year-round. Daytime temperatures are pleasant in the mid to upper twenties, although it is much cooler at nights. Warm clothing for early morning game drives is a necessity. The wettest months are April and May. The rest of the year is relatively dry with some rain throughout.
Best time to Visit- Lake Nakuru National Park
Lake Nakuru offers good wildlife viewing throughout the year, but the rains might interfere with your game drives in the wettest months, April and May. Although there is great birdlife at the lake, conditions in recent years have become unfavorable for flamingos, which used to be a real attraction here. As a result, the flamingos have moved to other lakes in the Rift Valley.
Best Time: June to March is best for general wildlife viewing and the best time to visit the park (Little rain)
High Season: July to March (The park gets very busy)
Low Season: April to June (The park is less crowded and low season rates might apply)
Best Weather: June to March (Little rainfall)
Worst Weather: April to May (Wettest months)
Best Time June to March
Low Season April to June
Best Weather June to October
Worst Weather Rainy
June to March
Dry Season
Dry season – June to February
The pleasant days are usually sunny but do not get too hot. It rarely rains, although don’t be surprised if there is an occasional shower at any time. It is recommended to wear warm clothing on early morning game drives.
June, July, August, September, October, November & December – Conditions are sunny with the occasional shower. Temperatures climb to around 25°C/77°F in the afternoon, but the beginning and the end of the day is cold with the temperature hovering around 9°C/48°F.
January & February – These months, before the rains break, are the driest and warmest in the calendar. Temperatures climb to 28°C/82°F and push higher. Be aware of the chill factor in the early morning when the temperature only crawls up to 9°C/48°F.
Wet Season
Wet season – March to May
There are many overcast, cloudy days in the Wet season, but it rarely rains all day. Showers after lunch are typical. Temperatures in the afternoon are pleasant at around 27°C/81°F. Early mornings are a bit milder at 11°C/52°F. April is the wettest month, and by May, the rainfall is already subsiding.
March – March or April sees the beginning of the rains, although it is rare for March to see much rain. Expect temperatures in the afternoon to reach around 27°C/81°F.
April – The wettest month, but it doesn't rain for long stretches very often.
May – The rains are already tapering off, but afternoon showers are still common.
Lake Nakuru is a very safe park to visit. Security within the park is high, and there is no cause for concern when staying here. It is located next to the small town with the same name. However, one should always be cautious when walking around any towns in Kenya without a guide. See ‘cities and other urban areas safety precautions’ for further information.
Medicine & Vaccines
Several vaccinations are required before a trip to Kenya. Lake Nakuru is a shallow soda lake in the Rift valley and malaria is a big concern here. Precautions should be taken seriously. Apart from bringing antimalarials, the use of mosquito repellent and covering up exposed skin in the evening is highly recommended.
Copyright © 2021 KENYA SAFARI. All Rights Reserved
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Effect of calcium-ozone treatment on chemical and biological properties of polyethylene terephthalate
Rashid, A. N., Tsuru, K. & Ishikawa, K., May 1 2015, In: Journal of Biomedical Materials Research - Part B Applied Biomaterials. 103, 4, p. 853-860 8 p.
Polyethylene terephthalates
Effects of humidity on calcite block fabrication using calcium hydroxide compact
Koga, N., Tsuru, K., Takahashi, I. & Ishikawa, K., Sep 1 2015, In: Ceramics International. 41, 8, p. 9482-9487 6 p., 10412.
Effects of low crystalline carbonate apatite on proliferation and osteoblastic differentiation of human bone marrow cells
Nagai, H., Kobayashi-Fujioka, M., Fujisawa, K., Ohe, G., Takamaru, N., Hara, K., Uchida, D., Tamatani, T., Ishikawa, K. & Miyamoto, Y., 2015, In: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Medicine. 26, 2
Effects of the method of apatite seed crystals addition on setting reaction of α-tricalcium phosphate based apatite cement
Tsuru, K., Ruslin, Maruta, M., Matsuya, S. & Ishikawa, K., Oct 1 2015, In: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Medicine. 26, 10, 244.
Fabrication of bone cement that fully transforms to carbonate apatite
Cahyanto, A., Maruta, M., Tsuru, K., Matsuya, S. & Ishikawa, K., Apr 23 2015, In: dental materials journal. 34, 3, p. 394-401 8 p.
Bone Cements
Fabrication of porous calcite using chopped nylon fiber and its evaluation using rats
Ishikawa, K., Tram, N. X. T., Tsuru, K. & Toita, R., Jan 1 2015, In: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Medicine. 26, 2
Fabrication of self-setting β-TCP granular cement using β-TCP granules and sodium hydrogen sulfate solution
Eddy, Tsuchiya, A., Tsuru, K. & Ishikawa, K., Nov 1 2018, In: Journal of Biomaterials Applications. 33, 5, p. 630-636 7 p.
Fabrication of self-setting β-tricalcium phosphate granular cement
Fukuda, N., Tsuru, K., Mori, Y. & Ishikawa, K., Feb 1 2018, In: Journal of Biomedical Materials Research - Part B Applied Biomaterials. 106, 2, p. 800-807 8 p.
Fabrication of strongly attached hydroxyapatite coating on titanium by hydrothermal treatment of Ti–Zn–PO4 coated titanium in CaCl2 solution
Valanezhad, A., Tsuru, K. & Ishikawa, K., Jul 25 2015, In: Journal of Materials Science: Materials in Medicine. 26, 7, 212.
Fabrication of β-TCP foam: Effects of magnesium oxide as phase stabilizer on its properties
Nikaido, T., Tsuru, K., Munar, M., Maruta, M., Matsuya, S., Nakamura, S. & Ishikawa, K., May 7 2015, In: Ceramics International. 41, 10, p. 14245-14250 6 p.
Feasibility evaluation of low-crystallinity β-tricalcium phosphate blocks as a bone substitute fabricated by a dissolution–precipitation reaction from α-tricalcium phosphate blocks
Tripathi, G., Sugiura, Y., Kareiva, A., Garskaite, E., Tsuru, K. & Ishikawa, K., Aug 1 2018, In: Journal of Biomaterials Applications. 33, 2, p. 259-270 12 p.
Fluoride activity of antibacterial ammonium hexafluorosilicate solution for the prevention of dentin caries
Suge, T., Shibata, S., Ishikawa, K. & Matsuo, T., Apr 2018, In: American journal of dentistry. 31, 2, p. 103-106 4 p.
Cetylpyridinium
cresol
Histological Comparison in Rats between Carbonate Apatite Fabricated from Gypsum and Sintered Hydroxyapatite on Bone Remodeling
Ayukawa, Y., Suzuki, Y., Tsuru, K., Koyano, K. & Ishikawa, K., 2015, In: BioMed Research International. 2015, 579541.
Hydrothermal treatment for TiN as abrasion resistant dental implant coating and its fibroblast response
Shi, X., Xu, L., Munar, M. L. & Ishikawa, K., Apr 1 2015, In: Materials Science and Engineering C. 49, p. 1-6 6 p.
Immobilization of calcium and phosphate ions improves the osteoconductivity of titanium implants
Sunarso, Toita, R., Tsuru, K. & Ishikawa, K., Nov 1 2016, In: Materials Science and Engineering C. 68, p. 291-298 8 p.
In vivo stability evaluation of Mg substituted low crystallinity ß-tricalcium phosphate granules fabricated through dissolution-precipitation reaction for bone regeneration
Tripathi, G., Sugiura, Y., Tsuru, K. & Ishikawa, K., Aug 15 2018, In: Biomedical Materials (Bristol). 13, 6, 065002.
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State, Nation & World
Emotional Healing: Grief – Bridge For Stepping Into Present
Submitted by Carol A. Clark
- 7:16 am
By Dr. TED WIARD
Golden Willow Retreat
This last week has constantly flooded us with enormous stressors that have potential for anxiety as many of the environmental stressors are atmospherically sitting in the unknown.
The pandemic, the elections and their outcomes, finances, school, and an unknown feeling of where to take action to change the internal and external discomfort.
As time moves forward many of these environmental stressors will be become clear and people will be able to move out of levels of ambiguity due to having information.
Lack of information increases fear, as there is more clarification, the brain can start to categorize, analyze, and choose action or non-action to help decrease internal stress.
For many, the political outcomes will be celebratory and there will be an ease from the historical status quo leading to hope for the future. There also will be many people who will be disappointed with the outcomes and possibly cause new stressors for the present and future.
There also is another group of people who will be neutral on political outcomes. No matter what someone’s opinion is, there is a grief process that happens as loss, as anytime there is change, as the old norm is gone and grief is the process in which a new norm is being established.
The grief process allows someone to disconnect from the past and start to move into the present. This is the process of chipping away at denial in which there is a higher and higher level of recognition that the historical way is no longer what is happening in the present. This usually has some level of protest or resistance to have to change, as this resistance becomes futile and other efforts of trying to hold onto the past ways are exhausted, there is a level of situational depression in which a level of fighting for the past is no longer serving or even worthwhile, and a certain level of surrendering to the fact that the old way has died.
As this surrender happens acknowledgement that the historical way has changed and there is a change process to develop a new norm is being established. This is the acceptance phase. Acceptance does not mean someone agrees with the present situation but acknowledges the fact that here has been a change. Once this has been established in someone’s psyche, wisdom and passion can be gleaned from the past to help develop the present and build towards the future.
No matter what someone’s beliefs are within the outcome from the election, there is change and being open to gleaning wisdom and knowledge to decrease fear from the unknown, decrease isolation, and increase bridges to work together building a strong foundation based on what is presently the reality. Knowing what is the present truth can help with priorities, working together, and building a future consciously rather than polluted by resentments, mistrust, and resistance to release the old norm.
Moving out of the past and acknowledging the present, helps decrease being overwhelmed by the future while standing on a strong foundation today for healthy and mindful action. That is the natural process of healing from loss through grief. I wish you well, and until the next time, take care.
Golden Willow Retreat is a nonprofit organization focused on emotional healing and recovery from any type of loss. Direct any questions to Dr. Ted Wiard, EdD, LPCC, CGC, Founder of Golden Willow Retreat GWR@newmex.com or call at 575.776.2024. Los Alamos virtual grief support group is offered, at no charge, please check it out at www.goldenwillowretreat.org.
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Copyright © 2012-2021 Los Alamos Daily Post is the Official Newspaper of Record in Los Alamos County. This Site and all information contained here including, but not limited to news stories, photographs, videos, charts, graphs and graphics is the property of the Los Alamos Daily Post, unless otherwise noted. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is hereby granted, provided that the Los Alamos Daily Post and the author/photographer are properly cited. Opinions expressed by readers, columnists and other contributors do not necessarily reflect the views of the Los Alamos Daily Post. The Los Alamos Daily Post was founded Feb. 7, 2012 by Owner/Publisher Carol A. Clark.
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Jack de Belin, Brian Johnston and Paul McGregor.
Dragons boss will walk away after de Belin trial
by Michael Carayannis
12th Nov 2019 12:00 PM
ST George Illawarra Illawarra are set for their second major shake-up in as many years with club boss Brian Johnston quitting the club.
Johnston will stay on as chief executive until the end of Jack de Belin's rape trial in March and help the Dragons deal with the fallout from the serious allegations raised against their star player.
The Dragons confirmed Johnson's departure on Tuesday, less than a week after they handed down their much-vaunted season review - which resulted in a massive eight staff changes.
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Johnston told chairman Andrew Gordon last month of his decision to walk away for personal reasons.
De Belin's trial is due to start on February 3.
The Dragons play their first regular season match against the Wests Tigers on March 15 and it is unclear if the Dragons will have a replacement CEO by then.
The Dragons' board of directors will meet later this month to start discussions on Johnson's replacement.
Staff and players were told of the impending changes on Tuesday.
Dragons CEO Brian Johnston with Souths assistant Mark Ellison. Picture: Brett Costello
It is Johnston's second stint as St George Illawarra boss after leading the joint venture in their inaugural season in 1999.
His latest tenure only began last season when he took over from long-serving chief executive Peter Doust, having previously served as the Dragons' chairman.
"The past 12 months as CEO of St George Illawarra has been a challenging yet enjoyable experience," Johnston said in a statement.
"I have made this decision to focus on my family and the farm back home in Dunedoo.
Jack de Belin and Josh Kerr collide at the Dragons’ pre-season training in Wollongong. Picture: Dylan Robinson.
"I look forward to the next four months overseeing an exciting pre-season following the completion of the club's extremely important football department review."
Johnston has consolidated the club's new ownership structure with WIN Corporation and has spent the bulk of his time in charge dramatically changing the club's management structure.
The former Australian player oversaw the exit of a number of the club's former leadership team, many of whom had spent more than a decade in their roles. Johnston has also dealt with a range of high-profile issues including de Belin's charges, former skipper Gareth Widdop's exit and fan unrest following poor on-field performances.
Dragons coach Paul McGregor will start season 2020 under pressure. Picture: AAP
The appointment of the new boss looms as critical for the Dragons, whose coach Paul McGregor starts the season under immense pressure.
Doust and Johnston have been the joint venture's only bosses after Doust took over from Johnston midway through 2000.
It is unclear if Johnston will remain on the board, which is now chaired by WIN executive chair Andrew Gordon - who has been on the board since 2006.
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Scariest account of virus you’ll read
by Marnie O’Neill
30th Mar 2020 5:01 AM | Updated: 6:21 AM
He deals with terrorists for a living but for Shiraz Maher, contracting the deadly COVID-19 pneumonia was more terrifying than anything he has ever encountered.
The 38-year-old British academic, who is one of the country's most prominent government advisers on Islamic radicalisation, described his horrifying experience of the disease in a mammoth twitter thread that has gone viral.
"It's a completely mad, crazy illness," Mr Maher said. "It has made me feel more intensely ill than I've ever been in my life."
Mr Maher said he had been vigilant about protecting himself from the coronavirus but, because he was relatively young with no underlying health conditions and a non-smoker, believed he could "shake it" if he caught it.
"Here's how things have played out. Firstly, it's not the flu. Whoever originally said that, did everyone a great disservice. This thing is not the flu. It's a nasty, horrible, illness," he said.
"I started having symptoms about two weeks ago. The fever was mild and went very quickly. Is it COVID-19? Who knows, but I've shaken it quickly. Great. Then my lungs started packing up and my chest got very tight. This happened around 15-16 March.
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"The cough was dry and unlike anything I've ever had before. It was much more extreme and pronounced than a dry cough you might have during a bout of the flu. It feels like there's something deeply lodged within your lungs, that they're (violently) trying to eject.
"Of course, there's nothing to actually eject. The resulting cough is dusty, dry and painful. Much more scary is that you're unsure of when you'll stop coughing. You have no control over it. There were times I was worried I'd start vomiting because the coughing was so severe.
"When you finally stop, it's a relief - but now you're in a new phase altogether. You're fighting to draw air into your lungs but your chest is tight and, frankly, your lungs are in distress. They're not functioning the way they should.
"Your head is also pounding because of the violent coughing. I suffered terrible headaches after these coughing fits. The evening of Wednesday 18th was the worst day for me. I fought for breath for about 3-4 hours. It was horrific."
Mr Maher said he recorded his symptoms and ran them past his doctor friends, who told him he had: "Classic COVID".
Not wanting to further burden the British health system, which is already struggling to cope with the daily surge of coronavirus patients, he did what he could to manage his worsening symptoms at home. Struggling to breathe and stay awake, he went to bed for two days.
"By Friday, I thought I'd got through the worst of it and things were looking good," Mr Maher said.
He was blindsided when his condition suddenly took a turn for the worse and his blood pressure shot up to the point where he feared he would have a heart attack.
British counter terrorism expert Shiraz Maher’s horrifying account of his experience with COVID-19 has gone viral. Picture: Twitter
"Coronavirus is particularly cruel. Recovery is not linear," he said.
"On Saturday night I started to feel distinctly unwell again. I decided to take my blood pressure because I have a home monitor.
"Anything over 180/120 is classified as 'hypertensive crisis' (basically, heart attack/stroke territory). Without revealing what mine was, lets just say I was well, well in excess of this (again, I don't have an underlying issue). This was easily the most terrifying moment.
"I called my doctor friends and told them. 'Time to call 999' (the British equivalent of triple-0) they said - so I did. It took more than 15 minutes to speak with a representative; that's how overwhelmed the emergency services are. I told them my BP and that I have coronavirus.
"Ultimately they decided they couldn't respond to my call. I am not criticising the London ambulance service. They are doing superb work under incredible, unprecedented circumstances."
Over the next 48 hours, Mr Maher remained in bed in a bid to bring his blood pressure down naturally. His hacking cough began to subside and his chest started to feel "less tight".
But just when he thought he was finally on the mend, Mr Maher was hit by a raft of new symptoms, including "crazy abdominal pains and headaches" and extreme lethargy.
On March 28, two and a half weeks after the first signs of coronavirus appeared, Mr Maher said he finally felt like he was "starting to beat it" and took to social media to share his horrific experience with others.
"Coronavirus appears to have a completely different trajectory in different people," he said.
"Some are shaking it off relatively easily. Others are suffering very badly. The most difficult part of this is the extent to which it takes hold within your lungs … It's a completely mad, crazy illness. It had made me feel more intensely ill than I've ever been in my life."
Disturbingly, because Mr Maher was never hospitalised or put on a ventilator, his case has been classified as "mild" by British health authorities.
You can read the full thread below:
I've been debating about whether to 'go public' on having coronavirus - which I kind of did inadvertently this morning. So, now I may as well share my experience(s) with you in order to help those who are worried about it or who are thinking they might have it. Here goes... 1/
— Shiraz Maher (@ShirazMaher) March 27, 2020
Originally published as Scariest account of virus you'll read
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The Unique Story Behind Made In's Wooden Spoon
You've probably never heard a wooden spoon origin story. That's because you've probably never encountered a wooden spoon worthy of one.
Our co-founder Jake Kalick was adamant — Made In needed a spoon. He literally wouldn't stop talking about it. It became a running joke around the office that Jake was "The Spoon Man" and that he was sneakily planning to turn Made In into a spoon-only enterprise called "Made In Spoonware."
Jake didn't want Made In's first-ever utensil to be just any spoon, though — he wanted one that worked with and enhanced every single product Made In offered. Due to our line of non stick cookware, metal was off the table this time around. Then two fateful words hit Jake in the head like a wooden spoon: Wooden Spoon.
"They're timeless, incredibly functional, and have so much character," Jake said. "We absolutely must add one to our collection. Must!"
Jake became a spoon man on a spoon mission. He searched high and low for the right people making the right wooden products in order to continue with Made In's tradition of partnering with family-owned manufacturers whose products are made by experienced, highly skilled artisans. After looking at more spoons than the dishwasher at a sit-down ice cream parlor, Jake stumbled upon the distinctive work being done by Zalan Szekely and his father, Victor.
Born and raised in Hungary, Zalan moved to New York City in 2014 for a job as a financial advisor. In search of a more fulfilling career and as a means of continuing a family history of woodworking that goes back four generations, he founded woodworking company Alan C.K. and Co. with his lifelong carpenter father, Victor.
The father-son duo started out making limited edition cutting boards, which immediately caught Jake's eye due to their unique wood combinations and durability. Upon seeing their handiwork, Jake reached out about potentially partnering on a wooden spoon.
Oh yeah, and did I mention that, throughout this whole process, Victor lived (and still lives!) in Hungary, 4,500 miles away from his son?
Alan C.K. and Co. not only overcome this incredible distance barrier, they thrive because of it. Because Victor still lives in Hungary, he has easy access to premium European woods such as responsibly sourced, water resistant, antibacterial Hungarian beechwood, the ideal wood from which to make wooden kitchen utensils. Jake and the Made In design team worked with Zalan and his father to design Made In's Wooden Spoon — a product Alan C.K. and Co. had never made before — and the rest is history.
Each Made In Wooden Spoon is individually handmade in Hungary by Victor, meaning we only receive 250 wooden spoons at a time. Because each finished product sent to us is beautiful, incredibly high quality, and wildly versatile, the Made In Wooden Spoon typically never stays in stock more than a day after being restocked before selling out once again.
Learn more about Made In's Wooden Spoon now!
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Tags: Tools wooden spoon
Made In Customer Support Jun 26, 2020
@Stephen – I’ve passed this note along to our product development team!
@Stephen A Schneider – It can be used on all cookware surfaces (because it won’t leave scratches) and it doesn’t hold onto heat (making it easy to handle)!
Stephen Jun 26, 2020
Would Jake consider making the handle end of the wooden spoon more purposeful? why not a 2-2 1/2tbsp bowl for tasting and/or measuring dry spices?
Randi Jenkins May 14, 2020
I just got mine along with a Chefs knife which is Amazing btw and the wok. I’m in the process of getting my wok seasoned and the wooden spoon is great. I used it for my Pork Chili Verde. So happy!!
JUdith ALpert May 14, 2020
These spoons are beautiful! I threw my old ones out!
HOlly CRawford Apr 29, 2020
I want a spoon!!
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Rob Reger, Lauren Gardiner
02 Sep Rob Reger, Lauren Gardiner
Posted at 16:26h in 2011, Exhibitions by Staff
Artist Reception: Friday, September 2nd; 8-11 PM
Rob Reger “The Encyclopedia of Hallucinations”
(Excerpts from 3 Chapters)
Chapter 9: The Exquisite Corpse
Chapter 11: Everything’s Connected
Chapter 13: Strange Fascination
Mixing clean design with a pop culture neo-surrealist sensibility, the concept for Rob Reger’s “The Encyclopedia of Hallucinations” has its roots in Reger’s childhood camping trips when his father taught him to draw forms from a squiggle with a stick in dirt. The future artist and his father drew mainly faces, animals, and monsters and then created narratives from these figures.
As a result, Reger learned to experience pareidolia, to ‘find things in other things,’ a concept that is still with him to this day. “The Encyclopedia of Hallucinations” gives the viewer a glimpse into this visual and psychological practice that has become second nature in Reger’s own visions. Imagination is Rob’s inspiration, and though his suggestive abstract forms, Reger gives his viewers the freedom them to find their own visions. States the artist: “Looking back, I see this early experience as shaping my fascination with suggesting recognizable forms in abstract work and the tendency to personify forms and ‘find’ figures within general chaos. I inspire others, through specific forms that suggest forms, to use their imagination to find their own forms.”
Reger’s art aesthetic and his design house, Cosmic Debris, grew from a tangle of roots joining the DIY punk scene of the ’80s with guerilla art, surrealism, and the psychedelic explosion of the ’60s. As the founder, Creative Director, and President of Cosmic Debris, Reger introduced the world to Emily the Strange —an icon of empowerment for young alternative girls and outsiders of all ages. Like the little black-haired muse herself, Reger fuels his imagination with music, the natural environment, science and the artistic explorations of his friends and other inspiring figures.
Reger received a BFA from University of California, Santa Cruz and a MFA in printmaking from the San Francisco Art Institute. His oil paintings, printmaking, watercolors, and collage have exhibited in galleries around the world, including: Tokyo, Paris, Los Angeles, Miami, San Francisco, Berlin, Milan, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Santa Cruz.
Attendees will be asked to write a short description of what they see in Reger’s paintings. The best of these writings will be documented on the La Luz de Jesus website.
Cel vinyl acrylic on canvas 22″ x 28″ $2,000.00
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 18″ x 48″ $5,000.00
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 16″ x 20″ $1,250.00 Sold
Cel vinyl acrylic on wood 16″ x 20″ $1,000.00
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 12″ x 16″ $850.00
Cel vinyl on wood 12″ x 12″ $1,100.00
Mixed media on panel 16″ x 20″ $900.00
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 8″ x 8″ $500.00 Sold
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 9″ x 12″ $650.00
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 8″ x 8″ $550.00
Cel vinyl acrylic on panel 6″ x 12″ $600.00 Sold
Cel vinyl on panel 11″ x 14″ $700.00
Lauren Gardiner “Misfits of the Forest”
Lauren Gardiner’s newest series of mixed-media sculptures, Misfits of the Forest, is an exposé of perverted pixies, fat fairies, inbred elves and naughty gnomes. From among the seemingly innocent mystical creatures of our collective folklore, Lauren reveals the ones THEY don’t want US to see: their deformed, their mentally ill, the fringes of their society who are not so magically perfect. These forgotten outcasts are brought to life in Lauren’s usual witty style, but this time in three dimensions! Now experience the poop of these irritating imps UP CLOSE with the scientific accuracy of make-believe!
Lauren graduated from the Rhode Island School of Design with a BFA in Illustration in 1998. Since then, she has been based in Los Angeles. This is her 9th time exhibiting at La Luz de Jesus Gallery.
Mixed media sculpture 4″ x 4.25″ $800.00 Sold
Mixed media sculpture 5″ x 5″ $950.00
Mixed media sculpture 5″ x 8.5″ $1,000.00
Fairy Feces Mixed media sculpture 1.75″ x 1.75″ $150.00 Sold
Mixed media sculpture 1.75″ x 1.75″ $150.00 Sold
Contact Matt Kennedy, Gallery Director for availability and purchase info: (323) 666-7667
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With the Saints of the Holidays: Part II Saint Nicholas
December 23, 2011 By Kirk R Brown in John Bartram is at home. Leave a comment
“As I drew in my head and was turning around, down the chimney Saint Nicholas came with a bound…” Clement Clarke Moore
Before there was Santa Claus, there was St. Nick. Jolly, plump, elfin.
Saint Nicholas began his saintly life in what is now a province of Turkey. His was an age that saw sweeping changes in the geo-political world of the Roman Empire. It was during his term as Archbishop that Constantine the Great divided the empire between capitals in Rome and Constantinople. Nick was at the crossroads of history.
Perhaps it’s why history has taken such great note of him.
Saint Nicholas has been transformed by time and customs.
During his life, he is given credit for being a very nice guy:
He gave dowries to three girls who would otherwise have remained husbandless. The three bags of gold that he dropped through their window (or down their chimney!) can still be seen today as iconic symbols outside any pawn shop door.
He resurrected three young boys out of a vat of curing spices after they’d been slaughtered by a hungry local butcher. Our own tradition of serving ham for the holidays might have started with that pork barrel.
He was responsible for taking by deception two years supply of wheat from a ship’s cargo meant for the emperor in Constantinople. By miraculously replacing the grain, the sailors successfully delivered the measured cargo but the starving people of Myra had not only sustenance but seeds for spring planting. This is a reason why he has become the patron saint of sailors.
For whatever reason, this man has become the icon of gift giving in a season of darkness. His named has become synonymous with impulse we have to give until it hurts. People even collect images of him hoping that more will be deposited on his journey around the world on Christmas Eve.
A shrine to Saint Nicholas
He lives in a magical world of light and eternal happiness. His journey is one that we would all emulate. Whether he is named St. Nick, Sinterklaas, Santa Claus, Pere Noel, or Father Chrismas, he fills the world with joy. Let us join with his goodness this holiday and welcome in the New Year with good cheer.
The world would be a bluer place without Saint Nicholas!
« With the Saints of the Holidays: Part I Santa Lucia
In the Bleak Midwinter… »
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Home Peo...People Groups Jew, Turkish
/ in All Israel Turkey
Turkish Jews in Israel PRINT VERSION:
Jews began coming to Turkey during medieval times, many escaping persecution from countries like Spain. At the time, the Ottoman Empire ruled what would become Turkey. Although it was a Muslim empire, Jews were not persecuted, but they had to pay a tax. Today, on the other hand, Turkish Muslims have become anti-Semitic, leading many Jews to move to Israel, where they would be accepted.
Immigrants from Turkey may live anywhere in Israel, but most probably live in the Northern part of Israel, which closer and thus easier to get to from Turkey.
Israel is a modern, first world country. In fact, it has more museums per capita than any other country in the world and some of the best healthcare. Most Israelis work 5-6 days a week, from 8 or 9 in the morning to 5 or 6 at night, and kids 5 to 13 years of age are required to go to school 6 days a week. They have a government very similar to that of Great Britain, with an elected parliament and a prime minister, who holds the most power.
As Jews, they believe the Bible up to the end of the Old Testament. Plus, they believe God promised the land of Israel to Abraham in the book of Genesis. More than one hundred years later, God set them free from Egyptian slavery through Moses, who gave them laws from God, which are recorded in the Bible and make up the books of Exodus through Deuteronomy. Jews believe that salvation comes from strict obedience to these laws. In addition, they also believe in a Messiah to come who would set them free.
Of course, they need Jesus above all. In addition, Israel has had conflict with their Arab neighbors off and on ever since Israel became a nation in 1917, and they need wisdom and patience to do what is right and just when such problems arise. Also, missionaries will need to find a way to show tolerance for their beliefs while sharing the truth about Jesus at the same time. They fled to Turkey and then to Israel for the purpose of escaping religious persecution. When witnessing to them, we must be loving and Christ-like.
* Scripture Prayers for the Jew, Turkish in Israel.
* For loving, compassionate missionaries to be sent to Israel and Turkey
* For peace to exist between Israelis and Arabs
* For Jesus to reveal Himself as the King of the Jews to Jews in Israel and around the world
* For Jews to discover that Jesus really is the Messiah they have been waiting for
Xinhua. "Turkey - Increase in Anti-Semitism Has More Jews Immigrating to Israel -- VosIzNeias.com." Breaking News | Latest News | Current News | Happening now | Orthodox Jewish News at VosIzNeias.com. N.p., 29 Aug. 2010. Web. 24 Feb. 2013. .
Chandler, Adam. "Troubling News for Turkey's Jews." Tablet Magazine. N.p., 19 Dec. 2012. Web. 23 Feb. 2013. .
Hanukoglu , Israel . "Brief History of Turkish Jews." Israel Science and Technology Homepage. N.p., n.d. Web. 24 Feb. 2013. .
Heller, Aron. "Israel at 65: Sucess still plagued by Uncertainty." Yahoo News. N.p., 14 Apr. 2013. Web. 14 Apr. 2013. .
Jones, Helen Hinckley. Israel. Chicago: Childrens Press, 1986. Print.
"Living in Israel ." Invest in Israel . N.p., 19 Aug. 2009. Web. 31 Mar. 2013. .
 . "Jewish, Turkish, Israeli - Israel Opinion, Ynetnews." Israel News: Ynetnews. N.p., 17 Nov. 2011. Web. 23 Feb. 2013. .
Profile Source: Anonymous
People Name General Jew, Turkish
People Name in Country Jew, Turkish
Natural Name Turkish Jews
Population all Countries 52,000
Affinity Bloc Jews
People Cluster Jews
People Group Jew, Turkish
Ethnic Code CMT35
Region Africa, North and Middle East
Primary Language Hebrew
Language Code heb Ethnologue Listing
Ladino Turkish
People Groups Speaking Hebrew
Primary Language: Hebrew
Film / Video Father's Love Letter
Film / Video Jesus Film: view in Hebrew
Text / Printed Matter Bible: Biblica's Hebrew
Text / Printed Matter Bible: Modern Hebrew New Testament
Profile Source Anonymous
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Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity →
The lure of incredible certitude
Posted on September 1, 2018 by curryja | 476 Comments
“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”- Charles Manski
Twitter is great for networking. My recent article Climate Uncertainty and Risk engendered a tweet and email from Professor Matthew Kahn, Chairman of the Department of Economics at the University of Southern California. Professor Kahn (and also Richard Tol) emailed me a copy of a new paper entitled The Lure of Incredible Certitude, by Charles F. Manski, Professor of Economics at Northwestern University.
Charles Manski
Abstract. Forthright characterization of scientific uncertainty is important in principle and serves important practical purposes. Nevertheless, economists and other researchers commonly report findings with incredible certitude, reporting point predictions and estimates. To motivate expression of incredible certitude, economists often suggest that researchers respond to incentives that make the practice tempting. This temptation is the “lure” of incredible certitude. I flesh out and appraise some of the rationales that observers may have in mind when they state that incredible certitude responds to incentives. I conclude that scientific expression of incredible certitude at most has appeal in certain limited contexts. It should not be a general practice.
On principle, I consider forthright characterization of uncertainty to be a fundamental aspect of the scientific code of conduct.
I have argued that forthright characterization of uncertainty serves important practical purposes. Viewing science as a social enterprise, I have reasoned that if scientists want people to trust what we say we know, we should be up front about what we don’t know. I have suggested that inferences predicated on weak assumptions can achieve wide consensus, while ones that require strong assumptions may be subject to sharp disagreements.
I have pointed out that disregard of uncertainty when reporting research findings may harm formation of public policy. If policy makers incorrectly believe that existing analysis provides an accurate description of history and accurate predictions of policy outcomes, they will not recognize the potential value of new research aiming to improve knowledge. Nor will they appreciate the potential usefulness of decision strategies that may help society cope with uncertainty and learn, including diversification and information acquisition.
A typology of practices that contribute to incredible certitude:
conventional certitude: A prediction that is generally accepted as true but is not necessarily true.
dueling certitudes: Contradictory predictions made with alternative assumptions.
conflating science and advocacy: Specifying assumptions to generate a predetermined conclusion.
wishful extrapolation: Using untenable assumptions to extrapolate.
illogical certitude: Drawing an unfounded conclusion based on logical errors.
media overreach: Premature or exaggerated public reporting of policy analysis.
To cite some examples, over fifty years ago, Morgenstern (1963) remarked that federal statistical agencies may perceive a political incentive to express incredible certitude about the state of the economy when they publish official economic statistics:
“All offices must try to impress the public with the quality of their work. Should too many doubts be raised, financial support from Congress or other sources may not be forthcoming. More than once has it happened that Congressional appropriations were endangered when it was suspected that government statistics might not be 100 percent accurate. It is natural, therefore, that various offices will defend the quality of their work even to an unreasonable degree.”
For short, I now call this temptation the “lure” of incredible certitude.
This contention is nicely illustrated by the story that circulates about an economist’s attempt to describe uncertainty about a forecast to President Lyndon B. Johnson. The economist is said to have presented the forecast as a likely range of values for thequantity under discussion. Johnson is said to have replied “Ranges are for cattle. Give me a number.”
I first discuss a psychological argument asserting that scientific expression of incredible certitude is necessary because the public is unable to cope with uncertainty. I conclude that this argument has a weak empirical foundation. Research may support the claim that some persons are intolerant of some types of uncertainty, but it does not support the claim that this is a general problem of humanity. The reality appears to be that humans are quite heterogeneous in the ways that they deal with uncertainty.
I next discuss a bounded-rationality argument asserting that incredible certitude may be useful as a device to simplify decision making. I consider the usual formalization of decision under uncertainty in which a decision maker perceives a set of feasible states of nature and must choose an action without knowledge of the actual state. Suppose that evaluation of actions requires effort. Then it simplifies decision making to restrict attention to one state of nature and optimize as if this is truth, rather than make a choice that acknowledges uncertainty. However, the result may be degradation of decision making if the presumed certitude is not credible.
A third rationale arises from consideration of collective decision making. The argument is that social acceptance of conventional certitudes may be a useful coordinating device, preventing coordination failures that may occur if persons deal with uncertainty in different ways. This rationale is broadly similar to the bounded-rationality one. Both assert that incredible certitude simplifies decision making, individual or collective as the case may be.
Some colleagues assert that expression of incredible certitude is necessary because the consumers of research are psychologically unable or unwilling to cope with uncertainty. They contend that, if they were to express uncertainty, policymakers would either misinterpret findings or not listen at all.
I conclude that scientific expression of incredible certitude at most has practical appeal in certain limited contexts. On principle, characterization of uncertainty is fundamental to science. Hence, researchers should generally strive to convey uncertainty clearly.
Researchers may also express certitude with private objectives in mind. They may believe that the scientific community and the public reward researchers who assert strong findings and doubt those who express uncertainty. They may conflate science with advocacy, tailoring their analyses to generate conclusions that they prefer. These private considerations may motivate some researchers, but they do not offer reasons why society should encourage incredible certitude.
Manski’s article compliments the field of climate science:
Yet some fields endeavor to be forthright about uncertainty.
I particularly have in mind climate science, which has sought to predict how greenhouse gas emissions affect the trajectory of atmospheric temperature and sea level. Published articles on climate science often make considerable effort to quantify uncertainty. See, for example, Knutty et al. (2010), McGuffie and Henderson-Sellers (2005), McWilliams (2007), Parker (2006, 2013), Palmer et al. (2005), and Stainforth et al. (2007). The attention paid to uncertainty in the periodic reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is especially notable; see Mastrandrea et al. (2010).
He cites some excellent, classic articles relating to uncertainty in weather and climate modeling and prediction – McWilliams, Parker, Palmer et al., and Stainforth et al.
With regards to the treatment of uncertainty by the IPCC, I am much less impressed. In the lexicon of the uncertainty monster, I characterized the IPCC’s treatment as ‘monster simplification:’
Monster simplification. Monster simplifiers attempt to transform the monster by subjectively quantifying and simplifying the assessment of uncertainty. Monster simplification is formalized in the IPCC TAR and AR4 by guidelines for characterizing uncertainty in a consensus approach consisting of expert judgment in the context of a subjective Bayesian analysis (Moss and Schneider 2000).
In my paper Reasoning about Climate Uncertainty, I further argued that a concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, exploring and characterizing uncertainty, reasoning about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminating bias from the consensus building process itself.
Apart from these concerns, it seems like the field of economics is in much worse shape with regards to dealing with uncertainty (and communicating it to policy makers) than climate science. These two fields are combined in Integrated Assessment Modeling of the impacts of climate change. In my paper Climate Uncertainty and Risk, I made the following comments:
The key climate science input to IAMs is the probability density function of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The dilemma is that with regards to ECS, we are in a situation of scenario (Knightian) uncertainty—we simply do not have grounds for formulating a precise probability distribution. Other deep uncertainties in IAM inputs include the damage function (economic impact) and discount rate (discounting of futureutilities with respect to the present). Without precise probability distributions, no expected utility calculation is possible.
This problem has been addressed by creating a precise probability distribution based upon the parameters provided by the IPCC assessment reports (NAS 2017). In effect, IAMs convert Knightian uncertainty in ECS into precise probabilities. Of particular concern is how the upper end of the ECS distribution is treated—typically with a fat tail. The end result is that this most important part of the distribution that drives the economic costs of carbon is based upon a statisticallymanufactured fat tail that has no scientific justification.
Subjective or imprecise probabilities may be the best ones available. Some decision techniques have been formulated using imprecise probabilities that do not depart too much from the appeal to expected utility. Frisch (2013) suggests that such applications of IAMs are dangerous, because while they purport to offer precise numbers to use for policy guidance, that precision is illusory and fraught with assumption and value judgments.
In any event, it is good to see more serious consideration of uncertainties being considered by economists, with some fresh insights into the motivations for ‘incredible certitude.’
And this quote (pulled from a presentation by Manski reported via twitter) sums things up perfectly:
“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”
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476 responses to “The lure of incredible certitude”
fernandoleanme | September 1, 2018 at 10:44 am |
Dr Curry, an IAM can be run 1500 times to create an outcome cloud. However, what I found in actual practice is that we can’t model properly human behavior within the model equations.
For example, lets say we define a range of TCR between 1.5 and 2.5 degrees per doubling and assume a human behavior pattern (“Merkelian” for the EU, “Trumpian” for US, China and India). The case where TCR is 2.5 starts experincing more pronounced climate change, so that by 2050 we should see the “Trumpian” US become more “Merkelian”. But the gradual behavior change is difficult to model (the amount of behavior change is itself an unknown, and becomes a variable we can model).
I was involved in this sort of investigation about 25 years ago, and i threw my hands up. The surveys I ran convinced me that we humans arent rational enough to be modeled properly.
Russell Seitz (@RussellSeitz) | September 1, 2018 at 8:46 pm |
As examples of “incredible certitude’ go, our host’s belief in a mythical creature of her own invention– the Uncertainty Monster. rivals anything in The collapse of western civilization : a view from the future ,the dystopic fantasy thatOreskes & Conway published in Daedalus some years ago..
https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2018/09/certainty-monster-haunts-swamp.html
Robert I. Ellison | September 1, 2018 at 8:57 pm |
Russell plugs into an unrelated comment to get a higher comment ranking – bad manners at best.
He characterizes metaphor as myth and uses this to disparage the proponent and again avoid uncertainty. Surprises are – you remember – inevitable. So this is the use of bad faith to avoid the reality of uncertainty and the resultant uncomfortable cognitive dissonance.
Russell Seitz | September 1, 2018 at 11:19 pm |
Now that’s incredible, Mr. Elison.
The subject of the preceding comment is modeling, and Judith’s uncertainty monster has been devoured by normative science as surely as the Sky Dragon or, if you prefer a Biblical metaphor, the serpents deployed by Pharaoh’s conjurors.
Robert I. Ellison | September 1, 2018 at 11:56 pm |
Modelling in both comments is a fairly long justification for rudeness bow. Incredible or not. And Russ’ purpose was to deny uncertainty on truly ludicrous grounds. We can now add that last wiggle of the lame – the consensus claim.
But Russ’ problem is that there are massively too many pieces – quite a few of which are little understood enough to be a hurdle to modelling (Hurell et al 2009) – to fit in the 93% (Jiminy, 2018) exclusively CO2 and temperature barrel. The bigger problem on a paradigm level is that the sum is greater than the parts.
“Climate is ultimately complex. Complexity begs for reductionism. With reductionism, a puzzle is studied by way of its pieces. While this approach illuminates the climate system’s components, climate’s full picture remains elusive. Understanding the pieces does not ensure understanding the collection of pieces. This conundrum motivates our study.” Marcia Wyatt
Marcia Wyatt is a beautiful mind whose natural philosophizing is directed by curiosity. I don’t know what the consensus is but this is a very powerful idea in all of the natural – and even social – sciences. Climate is a wild beast to use a different metaphor.
Russell Seitz (@RussellSeitz) | September 2, 2018 at 12:56 am |
Before moving further down the metaphorical food chain, take a look at the cartoon.
There are no disinterested parties in the climate wars, but if one reads the scientific record of the two decades since Mann’s Nature corrigendum started the normative process of scientific self-correction in this case, one finds that the proxy splice that started the ruckus has been corroberated by the broadening and refinement of both the proxy record and an instrumental record of ever growing depth.
What I get from this is that he still believes that the hockey stick means that history has ended. Technically – nonstationarity in the Earth system. A non-sequitur but wtf.
We aree all indebted to Mr. Ellison for so vividly illustrating the hazards of ignoring the climate science literature for decades on end.
Peter Lang | September 2, 2018 at 12:57 am |
fernandoleanme,
I don’t understand what you mean by the “Merkelian” and “Trumpian” human behaviours. I would have thought the most important behaviour to model is the one that occurs as awareness increases that global warming and GHG emissions are beneficial, not harmful, and certainly not dangerous. And that the world will be better off if it warms. Surely that is the most important behaviour to be modelled.
fernandoleanme | September 18, 2018 at 3:35 am |
Peter, Merkelian refers to a political tendency to impose carbon taxes, subsidize renewables, reward electric vehicles with free parking, and similar policies we see in Europe. Trumpian means the opposite, emphasizing that coal provides resiliency against terrorist attacks, dismissing carbon taxes, and acting as if oil will last forever.
An example of Trumpian think is his recent imposition of sanctions on Iran, aiming to stop Iranian oil exports. What Trumpian thought doesnt factor is that oil markets are running with very little surplus capacity, oil stocks are dropping, oil prices are increasing, and we just arent in 1998, when OPEC could open a few valves and oil would come gushing out.
Regarding Jim’s comments about modeling technology change, we sure can do it, simply using a distribution of cost curves for alternatives, ranging from nuclear power to battery storage.
The current integrated assessment models are primitive clunkers because they use fixed rather than variable parameters. They are dominated by marxist top down command economy structures in which arbitrary regime policies are set which somehow all nations are supposed to follow, and this is sheer nonsense.
I realize that integrated model design is sort of firgotten in discussions about climate change, but most of you are very smart, and im sure that if you start thinking and flowcharting the system you will se that, thus far, most models are flawed (the Japanese have the best model I’ve seen, built for ICARUS, but even that one needs work).
jim2 | September 2, 2018 at 5:27 pm |
You can’t model technological change either. What energy source will dominate in 20, 30, or 50 years? You have no clue. No one does. No one knows what farming methods will be used or how we will produce goods.
After several predictions of doom by “really smart” people, humankind is thriving as a species. Some folks are better off than others, but ALMOST all boats have risen.
Faustino aka Genghis Cunn | September 4, 2018 at 3:45 am |
jim, I’ve argued for many years that the only certainty about the future is that it will surprise us, it will bring unexpected challenges. So that whether or not the climate will warm further, and whether or not any warming would be net detrimental, our best approach is to increase our capacity to deal with whatever future emerges. That doesn’t mean reducing emissions, it means increasing our capacity, initiative, innovation, resilience, flexibility etc, which means a pro-growth, low-government, low regulation approach, the complete reverse of what is destroying the Australian economy and causing harm elsewhere.
Jim Hunt | September 1, 2018 at 10:44 am |
At the risk of lowering the tone, my attention was inexorably drawn to this learned article from the Georgia Institute of Technology concerning the “replication crisis” earlier today:
Click to access Failure-of-Academic-Quality-Control-Technology-of-Orgasm-Lieberman-Schatzberg.pdf
From the conclusions:
Our analysis of Technology of Orgasm fits into a growing critique of academic research and publishing. Peer review has come under increasing criticism from eminent scholars, who point to the inherent conservatism in a process that permits established scholars to act as gatekeepers for novel ideas. Prominent retractions of peer reviewed articles are widespread in the natural and social sciences.A recent study found that “a large portion” of peer-reviewed studies in psychology could not be replicated.
Jim Hunt | September 2, 2018 at 8:30 am |
More on the “replication crisis” from this weekend’s Economist (probably paywalled):
https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2018/09/01/experts-are-good-at-betting-which-scientific-experiments-can-replicate
Exciting results from a scientific study are in effect meaningless if they cannot be replicated. All too often, at least in psychology experiments, that seems to be the case. A new report by a scientist who looks at this area, Brian Nosek of the University of Virginia, has once again showed that a high proportion of psychology studies failed to replicate. And this time, Dr Nosek and his colleagues may have found a shortcut to identify which fall into this category.
The paper that The Economist neglects to link to can be found at:
Atomsk's Sanakan (@AtomsksSanakan) | September 9, 2018 at 2:53 pm |
Re: “At the risk of lowering the tone, my attention was inexorably drawn to this learned article from the Georgia Institute of Technology concerning the “replication crisis” earlier today:”
The “replication crisis” wouldn’t be pertinent to much of the evidence on anthropogenic climate change, since there’s been paper after paper replicating the key results (ex: stratospheric cooling, radiative forcing from CO2, a large enough climate sensitivity for increase CO2 to have caused most of the recent warming, etc.).
The replication crisis would instead be more pertinent for the nonsensical work done by contrarians such as John Christy, Roy Spencer, and Richard Lindzen. For example, the following papers cover how Christy’s work failed when it came to passing replication:
“Clearly, the lower troposphere does not warm at night and cool in the mid-dle of the day. We question why Christy and Spencer adopted an obviously wrong diurnal correction in the first place. They first implemented it in 1998 in response to Wentz and Schabel (1), which found a previous error in their methodology: neglecting the effects of orbit decay”
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/310/5750/972?casa_token=SG3qRXrMHBoAAAAA:i78bYO1YXl4ShUo8hZOkZIu0v0VTzn6b3xdcYoA-BKMWksF8qRN9X909MiGc5TMqHvANt-ePzR_GaIsd
“It is incorrect to assert that a large model error in the climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases is the only or most plausible explanation for differences in simulated and observed warming rates (Christy 2015).”
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0333.1
“It has been posited that the differences between modelled and observed tropospheric warming rates are solely attributable to a fundamental error in model sensitivity to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases [by John Christy]. Several aspects of our results cast doubt on the ‘sensitivity error’ explanation.”
Click to access SanterEtAlNatureGeosci17.pdf
“The reproducibility of observational estimates of surface and atmospheric temperature change”
“Review of the consensus and asymmetric quality of research on human-induced climate change”, pages 4 – 6
“The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature”
“Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends”
“Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies”
“A bias in the midtropospheric channel warm target factor on the NOAA-9 Microwave Sounding Unit”
“Reply to “Comments on ‘A bias in the midtropospheric channel warm target factor on the NOAA-9 Microwave Sounding Unit'”
“Stratospheric temperature changes during the satellite era”
“Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment”
“Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy”
“A comparative analysis of data derived from orbiting MSU/AMSU instruments”
Same for Spencer:
“For instance, M15 cite (Spencer RW, Braswell WD 2011), which was shown to have made four errors which invalidated the conclusions (Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Abraham JP 2011; Dessler AE 2011).”
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-015-0806-z
“Spencer and Braswell [2010] […] conclude that cloud cover plays a key role, further emphasized in Spencer and Braswell [2011]. Their methods have been tested by several research groups [Murphy, 2010; Murphy and Forster, 2010; Dessler, 2011; Trenberth et al., 2011b] and found to be without merit. In particular, Spencer and Braswell confuse causality and fail to recognize the appropriate relations between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and energy balance [see Trenberth et al., 2011b].”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2014JD022887
“Issues related to the use of one-dimensional ocean-diffusion models for determining climate sensitivity
Through the use of a particular one-dimensional model as a case study, a number of shortcomings were identified in the formulation that invalidates [Spencer and Braswell’s] conclusions.”
Allan (@Allan48933312) | September 1, 2018 at 10:48 am |
Please include this paper in your reading list. It’s excellent.
Lahsen, M. (2005). Seductive simulations? Uncertainty distribution around climate Models. Social Studies of Science 35 (6): 895-922. DOI: 0.1177/0306312705053049
The notion of ‘alienation’ in MacKenzie’s framework may hint at the impact of emotional commitments on perceptions of accuracy, but such an interpretation is somewhat undercut by the Marxist conception (alienation from the means of production) implied by MacKenzie’s usage.
Intriguing! Meanwhile Manabe and Wetherald.(1967) seems to have held up pretty well?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/prof-john-mitchell-how-a-1967-study-greatly-influenced-climate-change-science
The first quantitative estimate of the effect of doubling atmospheric CO2 on the mean surface temperature of the Earth was made by Svante Arrhenius in 1896….
However, in 1963 Fritz Möller found that the calculations of surface temperature changes due to a doubling of carbon dioxide were extremely sensitive to the model assumptions….
This is where Manabe and Wetherald came to the rescue in 1967 with their paper published in the Journal of Atmospheric Sciences called ” Thermal Equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity“….
Why is the 1967 paper so important? Manabe and Wetherald were the first to include all the main physical processes relevant to the problem, using a model that was no more complicated than necessary to achieve this. This led to much more realistic simulations and enabled the results to be explained in terms of processes which could be observed in the real world.
David L. Hagen (HagenDL) | September 1, 2018 at 10:59 am |
Per Richard Feynman 1974: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that. . . .”
“I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to do when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.” https://bit.ly/1Omih1n
JCH | September 1, 2018 at 2:04 pm |
And, of course, he was not talking to you.
David L. Hagen (HagenDL) | September 1, 2018 at 6:02 pm |
He was talking especially to all scientists.
I think that honesty and integrity are critical for all humans at all times, but those with power to push the world in various unhelpful directions have an even greater need for those qualities. They seem sadly lacking amongst many so-called scientists and politicians.
The English language press has ignored the scandal caused by Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister (President) Pedro Sanchez when it was revealed his economics doctorate (suma cum laude) included large portions of plagiarized material and chapters which appear to have been written for him by government employees. Given Sanchez’s autocratic personality, his mendancity and support by his socialists, the communists at PODEMOS and separatists, the scandal rages on, but he has said he would not resign, and continues lying openly about the thesis and how it was prepared.
The amount of lack of ethics, deception, and irrational behavior we see today regarding economic and energy policy is a normal for today’s culture, and this really needs to be factored in when running integrated models wich claim to forecast 80 years into the future. As i mentioned before I tried to model a group of managers’ response to future events based on an analysis of their actual behavior, and i found that a model had to include a description of their flaws and the lousy decisions they were likely to make.
For those who dont believe me, try to diagram what happened when the US decided to invade iraq in 2002, and the series of blunders which followed in sequence one after the other which led to 1 trillion dollars of wasted money, 40 thiusand US casualties, hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis, the rise of Isis, and the victory of Muqtada al Sadr’s party in the last iraqi elections.
Roger Knights | September 1, 2018 at 11:01 am |
“the progress of knowledge is less a matter of accumulating facts than a matter of destroying “facts.” The more ignorant a man is the more he knows, positively and indignantly.”
—H.L. Mencken
“Nine times out of ten, in the arts as in life, there is actually no truth to be discovered; there is only error to be exposed. In whole departments of human inquiry it seems to me quite unlikely that the truth ever will be discovered.”
“There is always an easy solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.”
“What is inevitable is never obvious.”
“The truth has a horrible sweat to survive in this world, but a piece of nonsense, however absurd on its face, always seems to prosper.”
“The average man does not get pleasure out of an idea because he thinks it is true; he thinks it is true because he gets pleasure out of it.”
“Nothing, perhaps, is more painful than disillusion, but all the same, nothing is more necessary.”
“We are here and it is now: further than that all human knowledge is moonshine.”
Ron Graf | September 1, 2018 at 3:42 pm |
Roger, those are great quotes. The mind craves answers and nature is most time way to complex for raw digestion. At every step of organization, classification and dissection choices are made. This is where truth can slip away. The scientific method, by removing those choices as much as possible by use the control, transformed civilization in a short time. It’s hard for lay person to appreciate how tedious and slow the actual working at the front line are. And it’s very easy to jump the gun on certainty.
Roger Knights | September 4, 2018 at 1:32 pm |
Here are three more certainty-related quotations from H.L. Mencken:
The public, with its mob yearning to be instructed, edified and pulled by the nose, demands certainties; it must be told definitely and a bit raucously that this is true and that is false. But there are no certainties.
Penetrating so many secrets, we cease to believe in the unknowable. But there it sits nevertheless, calmly licking its chops. Why is the so-called science of sociology, as ardent young college professors expound it, such an imbecility? Why is a large part of economics? Why does politics always elude the classifiers and theorizers? Why do fashions in metaphysics change almost as often as fashions in women’s hats? Simply because the unknowable casts its black shadows across all these fields—simply because the professors attempt to label and pigeon-hole phenomena that are as elusive and intangible as the way of a man with a maid.
Firmness in decision is often merely a form of stupidity. It indicates an inability to think the same thing out twice.
Atomsk's Sanakan (@AtomsksSanakan) | September 1, 2018 at 11:44 am |
Just another example of manufacturing false doubt on well-evidenced, settled points. Nothing new about that; the tobacco industry did it for decades.
“Many of the strategies used by the opponents of both evolution and global warming are based on sowing misinformation and doubt. This approach is often called the “tobacco strategy”, because tobacco companies used it effectively to delay health warnings and regulation of smoking.”
http://reports.ncse.com/index.php/rncse/article/viewFile/71/64
“Studies of AIDS denialism in South Africa, the Intelligent Design controversies in the US, and the global climate change debate have focused on the techniques arguers use to manufacture purported scientific controversies in the public sphere (Ceccarelli 2011; Paroske 2009).”
Click to access 55f3846508ae1d980394a125.pdf
“Any scientific theory is thus, in principle, subject to being refined or overturned by new observations. In practical terms, however, scientific uncertainties are not all the same. Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities [pages 21 – 22].
Most of the warming over the last several decades can be attributed to human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere [chapter 2, page 28].”
https://www.nap.edu/read/12782/chapter/4#21
Roger Knights | September 1, 2018 at 12:17 pm |
“Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.”
But those facts are not what climate contrarians pretend are uncertain, but rather how much of that “much” is manmade, and how much future warming can be expected, especially if the warmists’ hypothesized positive feedback mechanism via enhanced humidity in the tropical mid-troposphere doesn’t exist. On that matter, and on certain other less crucial ones, contrarians are not merely dubious, but forthrightly disputatious.
On many other matters, to be sure, warmist beliefs are not so plainly wrong, but merely dubious, so it is appropriate to go no further than to argue that they are doubtful. Most claimant’s assertions, especially ones in a poorly documented and hard to document field like climatology, can’t be knocked down because they lack solidity—they have a certain plausibility. (E.g., a claim that polar bears are endangered.) All that can be done as a counterpoint is to show that they have a certain implausibility too.
Doubt-raising is an essential part of critical analysis of fuzzy and hard-to-predict and disprove matters, such as military actions, economics (e.g., investment choices), and political decisions, such as trying to mitigate CO2 emissions. Coming up with contrarian, red-team, worst-case scenarios, and giving them serious consideration, is responsible behavior. It is a mere smear to conflate such a necessary analytical strategy with its misuse in non-fuzzy matters, like the harmfulness of tobacco smoking.
disputatious, not disputations. (autocorrect at work)
Re: “But those facts are not what climate contrarians pretend are uncertain, but rather how much of that “much” is manmade”
Read what was quote again:
And familiarize yourself with “skydragon slayers”; they contrarians who don’t think that CO2 (let alone anthropogenic increases in CO2) cause warming. So you can stop pretending they don’t exist, when even other contrarians have to debunk them
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/27/new-wuwt-tv-segment-slaying-the-slayers-with-watts/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/
https://scienceofdoom.com/2010/03/15/the-imaginary-second-law-of-thermodynamics/
Re: “especially if the warmists’ hypothesized positive feedback mechanism via enhanced humidity in the tropical mid-troposphere doesn’t exist”
The term “warmists” is on par with flat-Earthers saying “round-Earthists” or creationists saying “evolutionists”; congratulations on coming up with a name for people who accept the evidence-based scientific consensus, and aren’t denialists.
I also suggest you go read up on increasing water vapor levels in the troposphere. The following should help get you started:
“The radiative signature of upper tropospheric moistening”
“Construction and uncertainty estimation of a satellite‐derived total precipitable water data record over the world’s oceans”
“An assessment of tropospheric water vapor feedback using radiative kernels”
“Physical mechanisms of tropical climate feedbacks investigated using temperature and moisture trends”
Re: “Most claimant’s assertions, especially ones in a poorly documented and hard to document field like climatology, can’t be knocked down because they lack solidity”
Spend less time on baseless ranting, and more time reading the peer-reviewed scientific literature in which documentation is provided. You don’t get to claim a subject is “poor documented” and “hard to document”, when you clearly make little-to-no effort in looking up the documentation.
Re: “Doubt-raising is an essential part of critical analysis of fuzzy and hard-to-predict and disprove matters”
Manufacturing false doubt is needless and counter-productive. You’ve clearly shown that you don’t stay up-to-date on the relevant predictions and the evidence supporting them. So you’re in no position to make an assessment here.
Re: “especially if the warmists’ hypothesized positive feedback mechanism via enhanced humidity in the tropical mid-troposphere doesn’t exist.”
That’s funny… and illustrative of the willful ignorance many contrarians display regarding the scientific literature.
In my previous response, I cited some research on tropospheric humidity trends. But since many people seem to like pretty pictures, I thought I’d post some of those as well:
[from: “Construction and uncertainty estimation of a satellite‐derived total precipitable water data record over the world’s ocean]
[from: “An assessment of tropospheric water vapor feedback using radiative kernels”]
matthewrmarler | September 2, 2018 at 10:39 pm |
Atomsk’s Sanakan: In my previous response, I cited some research on tropospheric humidity trends. But since many people seem to like pretty pictures, I thought I’d post some of those as well:
As the Earth surface warms, will the rate of energy transfer from the surface to the atmosphere via the hydrological cycle increase? Related, how much of the increase in total precipitable water winds up in an increase in precipitation? How much winds up in increased cloud cover?
Re: “As the Earth surface warms, will the rate of energy transfer from the surface to the atmosphere via the hydrological cycle increase? Related, how much of the increase in total precipitable water winds up in an increase in precipitation? How much winds up in increased cloud cover?”
You’re continuing your usual tactic of pretending that your irrelevant questions need to be answered, in order for science to be settled on a certain topic. That’s as worthless as pretending that I have to answer questions on cures of lung cancer, in order to present evidence that smoking causes cancer. So how about you drop your evasions and red herrings, and actually address the evidence that was cited to you?
Atomsk’s Sanakan: You’re continuing your usual tactic of pretending that your irrelevant questions need to be answered, in order for science to be settled on a certain topic.
The question is relevant to the question of whether climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is closer to 1C or 3C or 5C, an important topic that is not settled.
Atomsk's Sanakan (@AtomsksSanakan) | September 3, 2018 at 11:56 pm |
Re: “The question is relevant to the question of whether climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is closer to 1C or 3C or 5C, an important topic that is not settled.”
It’s irrelevant to the point you were actually responding to. Namely:
https://judithcurry.com/2018/09/01/the-lure-of-incredible-certitude/#comment-880007
So you can stop moving the goal-posts, in your failed attempt to avoid actually addressing the point.
Jim D | September 4, 2018 at 12:23 am |
MM, it turns out that water vapor is a greenhouse gas and very responsive to surface ocean temperatures, so a positive feedback is expected just from basic thermodynamics. Arrhenius knew this much 100 years ago, and yes it is very relevant to explaining why there is so much warming already.
matthewrmarler | September 4, 2018 at 1:38 am |
Atomsk’s Sanakan: So you can stop moving the goal-posts, in your failed attempt to avoid actually addressing the point.
I am addressing a point you wish to avoid: granting what is known, that you cited, what is the quantitative relationship between the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere and warming of the surface.
Jim D: MM, it turns out that water vapor is a greenhouse gas and very responsive to surface ocean temperatures, so a positive feedback is expected just from basic thermodynamics.
A positive feedback may be expected by those who ignore the dynamics of the nonradiative transport of heat and the effects of clouds. Whether the net effect of water vapor is indeed positive is debated (references Science and Nature magazine reviews have been provided, but I can look them up for you again if you wish.) The water vapor does not just sit there in an equilibrium suspension.
Roger Knights | September 4, 2018 at 5:45 am |
Atomsk’s Sanakan: “The term “warmists” is on par with flat-Earthers saying “round-Earthists” or creationists saying “evolutionists”; congratulations on coming up with a name for people who accept the evidence-based scientific consensus, and aren’t denialists.”
OK, so I hereby dub your side “Certs.”
And you, for balance, may call us “Perts’”
Which should be acceptable to both sides because:
Pert: saucy, forward, sprightly, lively;
Pertinacious: obstinate, stubborn, persistent.
Jim D | September 4, 2018 at 8:55 pm |
MM, water vapor works as a greenhouse gas and accounts for most of the 33 K greenhouse effect today. It is also understood why it is 33 K, and therefore what adding a few percent more does to that. The laws of physics are fairly linear for small changes and adding a few W/m2 amounts to about a percent in the forcing. There are no new processes that kick into action with a 1% change, and we know the difference between summer and winter is much larger and also understood with the same physics. This is staying within the bounds of what is known.
More grist for the mill.
“Thirty year trend analysis indicates an increase of upper tropospheric humidity in the equatorial tropics.”
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010JD014847
One of those threads. Here’s something a little up to date for Atomski. Data is unlike wine – the newer it is the better.
“Figure 7. Time series of total column vapor anomaly and temperature anomaly, averaged over the world’s oceans, from 20S to 20N. The top panel shows the time series. The middle panel shows the running trend, starting in January 1988, and ending at the time on the x-axis. The bottom panel shows the ratio of the vapor trend to the TLT trend. Climate models suggest that this ratio should be about 6.2%/K. All combinations of satellite dataset show larger ratio, suggesting that either the measurements show too much moistening, or too little warming. The most recent version of the RSS TLT dataset is closest to expectations. This is Figure 13 in Mears and Wentz (2017).”
The problem of attribution – where the thread started – for Atomski is the great Pacific climate shift of 1976/77. But I guess it doesn’t exist.
matthewrmarler | September 7, 2018 at 12:37 am |
Atomski’s Sanakan: So you can stop moving the goal-posts, in your failed attempt to avoid actually addressing the point.
People forecasting CO2-induced warming keep missing the same goal for reasons such as those I outlined: without accounting for the energy flows rates and changes in the energy flow rates, the quantitative temperature changes caused by increased atmospheric CO2 can’t be known. One simplifying assumption has been to account only for the change in upwelling LWIR from the surface, ignoring the substantial energy transport by advection/convection and evapotranspiration. The effect of the simplification is not minor, it leads to overestimation of the Earth surface warming necessary to rebalance upwelling and downwelling transfer rates.
MM, that’s the reason they don’t do the EBMs (or forcing) at the surface but at the top-of-atmosphere. Read Lewis and Curry for example. From that budget, the added forcing accounts for all the warming response with a positive imbalance to spare.
Jim D: that’s the reason they don’t do the EBMs (or forcing) at the surface but at the top-of-atmosphere.
That is why the temperature change at the surface is not known.
Re: ” Here’s something a little up to date for Atomski. Data is unlike wine – the newer it is the better.”
The paper you cited is not more up-to-date than mine, Robert, since the paper you cited came before the paper I cited. I know this, because I’ve read the paper you cited long before you cited it:
Once again, intellectual laziness prevents u from reading the primary literature.
"A satellite-derived lower tropospheric atmospheric temperature dataset using an optimized adjustment for diurnal effects"https://t.co/z1aTOdSF2c
— Atomsk's Sanakan (@AtomsksSanakan) October 31, 2017
It’s amazing that people need to explain basic notions like “temporal order” to you.
This it the paper you cited:
From October 2017: “A satellite-derived lower tropospheric atmospheric temperature dataset using an optimized adjustment for diurnal effects”
This is the paper I cited:
From April 2018: “Construction and uncertainty estimation of a satellite‐derived total precipitable water data record over the world’s oceans”
Clearly, the paper I cited is newer than the paper you cited, though you pretend otherwise. Furthermore, the results of the two papers largely agree with each other. And that’s make sense, since both papers are largely from the RSS group using RSS’ analysis; hence RSS team members Mears and Wentz both being authors on those papers. Thus I don’t know why you’re bringing this paper up, as if it is a newer objection to what I cited. Are you confused?
So as I told you before:
“If you’re going to be smug, not directly address people, talk to yourself, etc., then please make sure you actually know what you’re talking about, Robert.”
Re: “People forecasting CO2-induced warming […]”
That’s nice.
This is the point of mine that you were supposed to be responding to, based on your own initial comment:
Instead of addressing that point, you continue to move the goalposts. So I’ll ask you a direct question that pertains to what you’re supposed to be responding to; I’ll be more than happy to repeat the question as many times as it takes you to address it, no matter how many times you move the goalposts. The question is:
Question: Did tropospheric water levels (in terms of either specific humidity, or total column water vapor levels) undergo a post-1980s, multi-decadal increase, both globally and in the tropics?
And if you’re curious, the following source provides a useful explanation of why I’m responding to you in the way I am:
“Do not introduce new arguments while another argument has yet to be resolved.”
http://twentytwowords.com/a-flowchart-to-help-you-determine-if-youre-having-a-rational-discussion/
Re: “MM, that’s the reason they don’t do the EBMs (or forcing) at the surface but at the top-of-atmosphere.”
So MM is really repeating a mistake that’s been corrected in the scientific literature since the early twentieth century? If so, then that’s amazing. Someone should contact Ray Pierrehumbert:
“Infrared radiation and planetary temperature
A related saturation fallacy, also popularized by Ångström, is that CO2 could have no influence on radiation balance because water vapor already absorbs all the IR that CO2 would absorb. Earth’s very moist, near-surface tropical atmosphere is nearly saturated in that sense, but the flaw in Ångström’s argument is that radiation in the portion of the spectrum affected by CO2 escapes to space from the cold, dry upper portions of the atmosphere, not from the warm, moist lower portions.“
Click to access chapter4.pdf
From 6:38 to 29:40 :
matthewrmarler | September 7, 2018 at 2:34 pm |
Atomsk’s Sanakan: Instead of addressing that point, you continue to move the goalposts.
The goal has always been to understand surface climate change. The surface is where everyone lives, where human health ebbs and flows, where vector-born diseases occur, where civilizations rise and fall — even where James Hansen’s grandchildren live. The surface is where crops are grown, forests grow, savannahs grow, forest fires occur — and where Romps et al forecast that lightning ground strikes would increase in frequency. The surface is where the negative consequences of floods and droughts occur.
Water vapor is a GHG but it is only one state of water, which is a principal refrigerant of the Earth surface; water absorbs surface heat, vaporizes, and carries latent and tangible heat to the cloud condensation level and elsewhere in the atmosphere before falling again as rain to renew the refrigerating cycle. You can not have a full accounting of the Earth surface change without an accounting (at least full enough) of the changes in the water cycle, and the error that arises from ignoring changes in the water cycle has not been shown to be negligible. Ignoring changes in the water cycle biases the Earth surface climate sensitivity upward, possibly by an amount greater than the best available point estimate of the climate sensitivity.
For tractability only, ECS calculations do not separate the Earth Surface, Near Earth Surface, multiple pressure levels, the Cloud Condensation Level, North and South, land and water, and such. To believe that the calculated result applies to the surface, the Cloud Condensation level, and such requires a substantial leap of faith.
Re: “The goal has always been […]”
To repeat myself (https://judithcurry.com/2018/09/01/the-lure-of-incredible-certitude/#comment-880196):
I’ll ask you a direct question that pertains to what you’re supposed to be responding to; I’ll be more than happy to repeat the question as many times as it takes you to address it, no matter how many times you move the goalposts. The question is:
“I’ll ask you a direct question that pertains to what you’re supposed to be responding to; I’ll be more than happy to repeat the question as many times as it takes you to address it, no matter how many times you move the goalposts.” Atomski
That’s what I was afraid of. The goal of climate science is not to indulge in Atomski’s talking past you points but to investigate a world. “The latter requires an investigative approach, where the goal is uberty, a kind of fruitfulness of inquiry, in which the abductive mode of inference adds to the much more commonly acknowledged modes of deduction and induction.” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016WR020078 It is best done – for such a complex multidisciplinary problem with social, economic, environmental and humanitarian dimensions – in synergistic environmental science teams. And on the backs of giants.
But here is TPW – shown earlier, TPW
TPW changes with atmospheric temp – that changes for any number of reasons. Principally the Pacific state. Here’s a RSS map.
It raises more questions than it answers. Might not the mysterious polar anti-phase relationship – a seesaw of polar energy storage – shift again as it does every 1000 years or so? The data is not definitive – it cannot be over such short records – but the future looks interesting. Damn these goalposts shift themselves.
Atomski’s narrow question was answered. But let’s face it – the question is not about science but whether you are dumb as a bag of rocks or a sinister troglodyte.
Re: “That’s what I was afraid of. The goal of climate science is not to indulge in Atomski’s talking past “
You seem to not know (or pretend not to know) that Roger Knights initially brought this point up, not me. I simply responded. But don’t let that fact get in the way of your tirade:
from Roger Knights:
“especially if the warmists’ hypothesized positive feedback mechanism via enhanced humidity in the tropical mid-troposphere doesn’t exist”
By the way, have you now learned that 2018 comes after 2017? Do I need to explain that to you again?:
MM, the change of the surface temperature is known and is about a degree, 75% of which is since 1950. What you are saying is you don’t believe this at all. If you mentioned this before, I missed it. I see no purpose to an argument with someone who does not believe the temperature record. This puts you in a “special” category, let’s say.
MM, from the TOA EBM point of view, where the water cycle matters is in how much more water vapor there is to block the escape of heat. Any increase in water vapor is a positive feedback on how much warming is needed to offset the forcing change.
rovingbroker | September 1, 2018 at 2:56 pm |
Is comparing global warming to tobacco a variation of Godwin’s law?
Godwin’s law (or Godwin’s rule of Hitler analogies) is an Internet adage asserting that “As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Hitler approaches 1”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
dougbadgero | September 1, 2018 at 3:13 pm |
Godwin’s Law is pop culture nonsense usually employed as a thought terminating cliche.
Hans Erren | September 7, 2018 at 1:04 am |
It is the wrong comparison. It is fossil fuel vs tobacco.
But fossil fuel brings wealth and health, tobacco brings poverty and illness. The whole global warming scare is about the fear that poor countries growing rich could be harmful to the people living in them.
Jim D | September 7, 2018 at 1:21 am |
Both are unhealthy addictions. Immediate gratification with long-term harm.
Robert I. Ellison | September 7, 2018 at 1:27 am |
Fossil fuels and tobacco is a false equivalency – one is the underpinning of so much human welfare and the other is a bad choice.
ccscientist | September 2, 2018 at 1:30 pm |
You are so sure climate science is settled. Yet the fundamental physics of turbulence, a key to heat movement and dissipation, has equations with no know method of solution and where the numerical methods have known problems. When you say settled, what exactly do you mean? If it is settled, why do the different models yield such different outputs, especially at regional scales and for precipitation? Are you sure that clouds stay fairly constant after warming, as models assume, and don’t act as a negative feedback?
Claiming premature closure is simply an attempt to get your opponents to shut up. It is a logical fallacy. Even in the case of evolution, contrarians have a purpose and have demonstrated jumping genes (Barbara McClintock), salamanders with asexual reproduction, hermaphroditic snails and other species, and the whole field of epigenetics (genes turned on and off, which may even be passed on to offspring).
There is also fundamental physics of energy conservation. The forcing exceeds the warming with an imbalance to spare.
Re: “You are so sure climate science is settled.”
Nope. I’m saying certain matters in climate science are settled by evidence, and this results in an evidence-based scientific consensus on these matters.
You’re basically using a nonsensical tactic, where you act as if everything needs to be settled in a scientific field, in order for some things to be settled in that scientific field. AIDS denialists (and other science denialists) use that same silly tactic as well.
For example, many AIDS denialists pretend that the science needs to be settled on a successful HIV vaccine, in order for the science to be settled on HIV causing AIDS. Of course, that tactic is silly, since the evidence on HIV causing AIDS doesn’t require one to answer questions on successful HIV vaccines. Your use of the tactic is silly for similar reasons. For instance, I simply do not need to answer the questions you invented, in order for me to present clear lines of evidence that humans (via their release of CO2) caused most of the recent global warming.
I suggest you drop your nonsensical tactic:
“Manufacture of doubt: Denialists highlight any scientific disagreement (whether real or imagined) as evidence that the entire topic is contested, and argue that it is thus premature to take action.”
http://www.bmj.com/content/341/bmj.c6950.full
Re: “Yet the fundamental physics of turbulence, a key to heat movement and dissipation, has equations with no know method of solution and where the numerical methods have known problems. When you say settled, what exactly do you mean? If it is settled, why do the different models yield such different outputs, especially at regional scales and for precipitation?”
Once again, none of that needs to be answered in order for it to be a settled fact that humans (via their release of CO2) caused most of the recent global warming. A recent review paper illustrates this point, by showing how matter on one scientific issue can be largely settled by evidence, while other issues aren’t:
“We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2896
Re: “Are you sure that clouds stay fairly constant after warming, as models assume, and don’t act as a negative feedback?”
And you, once again, bring up a question that does not need to be answered in order for it to be a settled fact that humans (via their release of CO2) caused most of the recent global warming. Try again.
Also, if you want to read up on the numerous lines of evidence for positive feedback from clouds, then I suggest you read papers such as:
“Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record”
“Clearing clouds of uncertainty”
“Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models”
“A net decrease in the Earth’s cloud, aerosol, and surface 340 nm reflectivity during the past 33 yr (1979–2011)”
“New observational evidence for a positive cloud feedback that amplifies the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation”
“Impact of dataset choice on calculations of the short-term cloud feedback”
“Long-term cloud change imprinted in seasonal cloud variation: More evidence of high climate sensitivity”
“A determination of the cloud feedback from climate variations over the past decade”
“Observations of climate feedbacks over 2000–10 and comparisons to climate models”
Re: “Claiming premature closure is simply an attempt to get your opponents to shut up. It is a logical fallacy.”
You’ve shown no evidence of “premature closure”. And, ironically, you just committed a fallacy yourself: attacking a straw man. You haven’t shown any evidence of people trying to get opponents to shut up. You contrarians are free to say what you want, post on websites like this, hold public events where you misrepresent science, etc. And other people are free to point out that you are offering worthless objections to well-evidenced, settled science. Stating that is not the same thing as shutting you up, since you’re still free to voice your nonsense, just as AIDS denialists, flat-Earthers, anti-vaxxers, etc. are
Re: “Even in the case of evolution, contrarians have a purpose and have demonstrated jumping genes (Barbara McClintock), salamanders with asexual reproduction, hermaphroditic snails and other species, and the whole field of epigenetics (genes turned on and off, which may even be passed on to offspring).”
None of which rebutted well-evidenced, settled points in evolutionary theory. For example, natural selection still operates, as does genetic drift. Nothing about evolutionary theory says there cannot be inheritance of factors other than nucleic acid sequences. If you think otherwise, then please enroll in a introductory biology course. Don’t misrepresent biology to me in order to support your ideologically-motivated points.
Roscoe Shaw | September 2, 2018 at 1:38 pm |
Climate change science probably has a lot more in common with the saturated fat debacle than with tobacco. After all, every major world health organization condemned saturated fat as a major heart disease risk. Now, based on the science, I’m eating butter again and flying airplanes. Maybe I’d be a touch better off with olive oil and a bicycle but I’m definitely worse off with margarine and windmills.
Re: “Climate change science probably has a lot more in common with the saturated fat debacle than with tobacco. After all, every major world health organization condemned saturated fat as a major heart disease risk. Now, based on the science, I’m eating butter again and flying airplanes”
What debacle? And you really don’t seem to be familiarize with “the science” at all. I’ve noticed that contrarianism on both nutrition science and climate science seems to be spreading among many politically-conservative people. That’s rather sad. People should stop relying on folks like Rush Limbaugh and non-peer-reviews blogs / pieces for their medical information and information on climate science.
Anyway, the link between saturated fat with heart disease is well-evidenced. For instance:
“A systematic review of the effect of dietary saturated and polyunsaturated fat on heart disease”
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews: “Reduction in saturated fat intake for cardiovascular disease”
“Association of specific dietary fats with total and cause-specific mortality”
“Saturated fats versus polyunsaturated fats versus carbohydrates for cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment”
“Saturated fats compared with unsaturated fats and sources of carbohydrates in relation to risk of coronary heart disease: a prospective cohort study”
“Dairy fat and risk of cardiovascular disease in 3 cohorts of US adults”
“Saturated fatty acids and coronary heart disease risk: the debate goes on”
“Saturated fat and heart disease: The latest evidence”
It’s so well established that it’s still recommended that people limit saturated fat intake and eat as little dietary cholesterol as possible:
“Intake of saturated fats should be limited to less than 10 percent of calories per day by replacing them with unsaturated fats and while keeping total dietary fats within the age-appropriate AMDR.
As recommended by the IOM,[24] individuals should eat as little dietary cholesterol as possible while consuming a healthy eating pattern.”
https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/2015/guidelines/chapter-1/a-closer-look-inside-healthy-eating-patterns/#footnote-24
And vegetarian diets that limit saturated fat intake also improve heart-disease-related metrics. See, for instance:
“Vegetarian, vegan diets and multiple health outcomes: A systematic review with meta-analysis of observational studies”
“Vegetarian diets and blood pressure: A meta-analysis”
“Effects of vegetarian diets on blood lipids: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials”
miker613 | September 2, 2018 at 9:55 pm |
Jeepers. Are you at all familiar with this site? You sound like you think you know everything, but you are posting a lot of dubious stuff to some real experts here, including Dr. Curry.
This is a post on how people pretend to know everything when they don’t really. Why would you want to model that?
Re: “Jeepers. Are you at all familiar with this site? You sound like you think you know everything, but you are posting a lot of dubious stuff to some real experts here, including Dr. Curry.
Please stop pretending that someone needs to know everything in order to know about settled, well-evidenced science. And Curry’s claims aren’t particularly informative to me, especially when she fails to read the scientific literature on the topics she discusses. I don’t consider someone a “real expert” on a topic, when I have to cite the scientific literature they should have read to them, as I’ve had to do for Curry:
https://judithcurry.com/2018/01/16/sea-level-rise-acceleration-or-not-part-i-introduction/#comment-864647
Atomsk’s Sanakan: Any scientific theory is thus, in principle, subject to being refined or overturned by new observations. In practical terms, however, scientific uncertainties are not all the same. Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small.
On the other hand, the evolving roles of the hydrological cycle and clouds have hardly produced any agreement at all. Warmer will make wetter, except where and when it doesn’t, seems to be the message. Almost 3 years ago now Romps et al published a report that a certain process transferring energy from surface to atmosphere would have a rate increase of 11% per degree C. It would be nice if the procedure were applied to other parts of the world than the US between the Rockies an Appalachians plus Florida. A review of rainfall studies by O’Gorman and others gave a range of 4%-6% per degree C for the rates of rainfall increase. These are not negligible details.
Re: “On the other hand, the evolving roles of the hydrological cycle and clouds have hardly produced any agreement at all.”
You’re simply engaged in the same nonsense I addressed elsewhere:
Once again:
Certain matters in climate science are settled by evidence, and this results in an evidence-based scientific consensus on these matters.
I also suggest you go do some reading on the hydrological cycle, before you abuse that in your failed attempts at manufacturing false doubt. The following sources should help get you started:
“Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models”
“Global water cycle amplifying at less than the Clausius-Clapeyron rate”
Atomsk’s Sanakan: “Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models”
That’s nice. Selective quoting does not indicate “agreement”, However, since those two observations are important, the next question (I guess you call questioning “moving the goal posts”) would be how much precipitation increase can actually be powered by 4 W/m^2 increase in downwelling LWIR? It is an important scientific question that has not been accurately answered.
On the issue of increasing precipitation with increasing temperature I have referred to a review by O’Gorman et al and the pioneering work of Romps et al (the study on increased lightning ground strike frequency), which I hope other people emulate for other parts of the Earth surface. Is there agreement that the increased rate of the water cycle and increased precipitation produce increased cloud cover? Decreased cloud cover? Increase cloud cover in some spatio-temporal regions and decreased cloud cover in other spatio-temporal regions?
You generally want to focus on scientific issues and avoid policy questions (please forgive me if I have misstated your emphasis). When in science has directing attention to unanswered questions been “moving the goal posts”? The goals of science have always included answering the next answerable questions, and increasing the accuracy of the quantification of demonstrated processes.. A question that is the topic of much current work is “climate sensitivity”, with the confidence distribution on the magnitude of the effect of CO2 hardly changed in the last 30 years, though most recent estimates are closer to 1C than to 3C. There isn’t doubt is there that the 90% CIs are all wide, and a good research focus is to reduce them (“constrain the estimates”)? My questions about changes in energy transfer rates at the Earth surface relate directly to reducing the uncertainty on the climate sensitivity.
matthewrmarler, addressing Atomsk’s Sanakan: You generally want to focus on scientific issues and avoid policy questions
I have written about science and policy. In science, one always wants the answers to the next questions, refinements of current knowledge, reduction of current evidence, etc; as when Kepler adduced the elliptical shapes of planetary orbits; Newton adduced the inverse square law of gravitation; and Foucoult estimated the gravitational constant.
In policy changes and initiatives, one always wants to assess the balance of costs and benefits, as when in 2010 the Congressional Budget Office reviewed the economics of the proposed Affordable Care Act.
In discussions of policy changes relevant to AGW (PABW, anyone?), the cost/benefit analysis is undermined by a great uncertainty in the science: granting that increased CO2 in the atmosphere will (likely) warm the Earth surface, how much warming can be expected (say from doubling the CO2 concentration in 70 years)? With such uncertainty, the postulated costs of inaction, and benefits of particular actions are also subject to great uncertainty. Much evidence supports the proposition that warming since 1880 has been largely beneficial. But what about the future?
Re: “That’s nice. Selective quoting does not indicate “agreement”, “
I gave you the title of the papers, which is a common way to cite a paper. That which would be enough for a competent person to find the paper. If that’s a problem for you, then that’s an issue for you, not for me.
Re: “However, since those two observations are important, the next question”
Not interested in your moving the goal-posts, after your nonsensical claims were rebutted. You made a claim for which you provided no evidence. In contrast, I actually cited evidence for what I said. I’m not interested in what new issues you invent to dodge that point. Please learn to stay on topic; support the claims you made, or address the evidence that was cited to you. Anything else from you is simply your usual evasions.
Re: “When in science has directing attention to unanswered questions been “moving the goal posts”?”
You’re not doing science. You’re making up new questions, so that you can avoid admitting that previous questions were addressed by evidence. It would be like if you asked “what evidence is there that smoking causes cancer?”, I responded by citing evidence that smoking causes cancer, and you responded by asking “what’s the cure for lung cancer?”, without you ever acknowledging the evidence I gave that answered your first question. That’s not science; that’s evasively moving the goal-posts.
john321s | September 4, 2018 at 5:54 pm |
Showing a mere quarter-century of increasing tropospheric humidity data during a period of rising temperatures doesn’t begin to demonstrate any credible “feedback” let alone reveal the origin. Oceanic evaporation goes up exponentially with temperature and the presence of natural temperature cycles of multidecadal and longer scales renders the presumed anthropogenic connection logically fallacious.
Re: “Showing a mere quarter-century of increasing tropospheric humidity data during a period of rising temperatures doesn’t begin to demonstrate any credible “feedback” let alone reveal the origin. “
That’s nice. You should refresh your memory on the claim I was replying to. Namely:
“especially if the warmists’ hypothesized positive feedback mechanism via enhanced humidity in the tropical mid-troposphere doesn’t exist.”
I showed clear evidence that enhanced tropospheric humidity, including in the tropics. Your evidence-free opinions of what counts as demonstrating “credible feedback” is irrelevant to that point.
The Clausius-Clapeyron Equation is among the most basic of geophysics – in both senses of the word. Both simple and fundamental.
Atomski’s problem arises because there are other things happening in the Earth system.
kellermfk | September 1, 2018 at 12:04 pm |
More accurately “doubt based on manufactured evidence masquarding as settled points”. In one sense, you do have a point about the tobacco industry, which attempted to justify their product using nonsense in order to line their own pockets. Pretty much like the “green-religion”.
Scott Koontz | September 1, 2018 at 12:18 pm |
Science shows that organizations like Heartland have been promoting doubt and fake science to the unwitting masses for many decades. Heartland said smoking was OK for you, and continue to this day with “we lied about smoking, second hand smoke is OK for your family.” Heartland ALSO claims, but way of well-paid charlatan “scientists” that man is not warming the earth.
You call real science “green religion” which is terribly sophomoric. It is science, and in most ways science is the opposite of religion. If you’re going to pretend to know about Heartland and the peddling of doubt, then research this topic and learn that a lot of climate science is in fact settled. Also not that Heartland is still in this game lining their own pockets. They are peddling what you call religion.
The VERY SAME ORGANIZATION that learned people call out for their lies about smoking are now backing them for the lies about “green religion” as you call actual climate science. How long will it take for “skeptics” to realize that some of the very same people and organizations who duped them are now duping them again?
Yes, you are correct that the charlatans are lining their pockets. Look to the skeptic” organizations like Heartland for who is lining pockets. They get paid to lie, but real scientists must pass peer review.
When every science organization comes to the same general conclusions for the past several decades, it would be foolish to think that the few people paid by oil companies know what’s really happening.
Sad that people can call out Heartland for fake science regarding smoking, then say they they suddenly are paying the best scientists to call out the grand Chinese Hoax. The hoax that every single climate scientists is lying, and somehow that’s a possibility.
“The hoax that every single climate scientists is lying, and somehow that’s a possibility.”
Climate contrarians don’t dispute the near-universal consensus that AGW is real, but rather the less universal opinion that it will have catastrophic effects. A Wikipedia article [of a few years ago—I haven’t checked it recently] about surveys of scientists’ views on climate change includes this:
“In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. The survey found 97% agreed that global temperatures have increased during the past 100 years; 84% say they personally believe human-induced warming is occurring, and 74% agree that “currently available scientific evidence” substantiates its occurrence. Only 5% believe that that human activity does not contribute to greenhouse warming; 41% say they thought the effects of global warming would be near catastrophic over the next 50-100 years; 44% say said effects would be moderately dangerous; 13% saw relatively little danger; 56% say global climate change is a mature science; 39% say it is an emerging science. [10] [11]”
“Rigorous international surveys conducted by German scientists Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch – most recently published in Environmental Science & Policy in 2010 at http://www.academia.edu/2365610/A_Survey_of_Climate_Scientists_Concerning_Climate_Science_and_Climate_Change – have found that most climate scientists disagree with the alleged consensus on various key issues, such as the reliability of climate data and computer models. They also do not believe climate processes like cloud formation and precipitation are sufficiently understood to enable accurate predictions of future climate change.
So they’re employing the tobacco industry’s doubt-spreading strategy!? /sarc
“Surveys of meteorologists repeatedly find a majority oppose or disagree with the alleged consensus. Only 39.5% of 1,854 American Meteorological Society members who responded to a survey in 2012 said man-made global warming is dangerous.”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/30/the-myth-of-the-97-climate-change-consensus/
Re: “Climate contrarians don’t dispute the near-universal consensus that AGW is real, but rather the less universal opinion that it will have catastrophic effects.”
Don’t waste people time with your ill-defined, “catastrosphic” straw man:
“Another claim advanced by those who reject the mainstream scientific agreement on climate is that the consensus position consists of a claim of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming or the frequently used acronym CAGW […]. However, CAGW is rarely, if ever, defined or sourced to a mainstream scientific organization or study. Any scientific study’s result, or statement by a researcher, that does not fit a contrarian’s personal, flexible definition of CAGW can therefore be adopted as ostensibly supporting their view and refuting the mainstream, even when such results are actually consistent with the mainstream position on climate […].
Additionally, we find that catastrophic anthropogenic global warming [CAGW] is essentially a term that is never used in the relevant scientific literature by mainstream sources. Furthermore, in the press it appears to be used exclusively by climate contrarians. The term is typically neither defined nor attributed to a mainstream scientific source. Our conclusion is therefore that CAGW is simply a straw man used by climate contrarians to criticize the mainstream position (50).”
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-20161-0_3
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/30/the-myth-of-the-97-climate-change-consensus/
In what twisted reality is WattsUpWithThat a credible source? Are you kidding me; you’re going to rely on that garbage blog?:
“Unlike mainstream climate scientists, who publish primarily in peer reviewed journals, these critics typically employ a range of non-peer-reviewed outlets, ranging from *blogs* to the books we are examining. […]
The general lack of peer review allows authors or editors of denial books to make inaccurate assertions that misrepresent the current state of climate science. Like the vast range of other non-peer-reviewed material produced by the denial community, book authors can make whatever claims they wish, no matter how scientifically unfounded.”
Click to access 0002764213477096.full.pdf
Anyway, among AAAS (American Academy for the Advancement of Science) scientists with relevant expertise (PhD earth scientists current working), there’s a *95%* consensus that climate change was a serious problem and a *93%* consensus that recent warming is mostly caused by humans:
“Earth scientists views on climate change”
http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/07/23/elaborating-on-the-views-of-aaas-scientists-issue-by-issue/
And in another survey, *~87%* of climate researchers thought that humans caused (or will cause) most of the recent (or near future) climate change, while *~86%* of climate researchers thought that climate change poses a very serious problem and/or a threat to humanity:
Figures 88 (v043) and 2 (v007) of: “The Bray and von Storch 5th International Survey of Climate Scientists 2015/2016”
Click to access hzg_report_2016_2.pdf
David Wojick | September 1, 2018 at 2:29 pm |
I write as a skeptic of climate alarmism for Heartland and CFACT. Here are well over 100 articles of mine, including many on the science:
http://www.cfact.org/author/david-wojick-ph-d/
What exactly are you claiming about my writing? That it is somehow dishonest? Or what?
Re: “Heartland said smoking was OK for you, and continue to this day with “we lied about smoking, second hand smoke is OK for your family.” Heartland ALSO claims, but way of well-paid charlatan “scientists” that man is not warming the earth.”
Well-said.
Lindzen’s antics on this are particularly ridiculous:
“The truth about global warming
Lindzen clearly relishes the role of naysayer. He’ll even expound on how weakly lung cancer is linked to cigarette smoking. […] he punctuates his measured cadences with thoughtful drags on a cigarette.”
http://www.newsweek.com/truth-about-global-warming-154937
“If this sounds like a blueprint for climate change denial, it is because the denial machine not only learned from those who previously used the practice of *manufacturing uncertainty* successfully but some of its key actors learned the value of the strategy directly from their personal involvement in the “tobacco wars”.”
Click to access 5650b68608ae4988a7ab9d45.pdf
“Arguments about the complex, multifactorial aetiology of CHD and cancer have long been used by the tobacco industry to dispute the epidemiological and other evidence. This approach to the evidence has also been documented in other industries, and the use of double standards in demands for evidence is a characteristic of many other fields. For example, car manufacturers fought the mandatory introduction of airbags and seatbelts in the 1960s as ineffective, and the alcohol industry and motoring organisations did the same with the introduction of the breathalyser to tackle drink driving in the 1960s. Demands for perfect evidence, while misrepresenting the existing evidence, can also be observed in climate change denialism.”
http://jech.bmj.com/content/71/11/1078
Happily your rants against Heartland (and me) are manifestly irrelevant. The lengths of your diatribes are inversely proportional to their substance. There is literally nothing to reply to!
Regarding mankind not warming the Earth, see my http://www.cfact.org/2018/01/02/no-co2-warming-for-the-last-40-years/.
Observation tells us there has been no CO2 warming since observations began. Unlike you alarmists, I do not rant. I observe. Call it science.
kellermfk | September 1, 2018 at 3:06 pm |
Last time I checked, the Heartland folks were not mandating the use of anything, unlike the “green religion”. However, my remarks were directed at the tobacco companies that clearly profited by peddling a dangerous product whose damage to health they downplayed.
Further, comparing the effects of tobacco with CO2 is utterly illogical. It is painfully obvious that filling your lungs with smoke is unhelpful. The same cannot be said with putting CO2 into the atmosphere, which is exactly what plants do.
Fact is, we simply do not known if additional CO2 is good or bad. Rather than waste vast sums of money on dopey “green-religion” activities, concentrate on more cost effectively/efficiently producing and using energy. Everybody ends up with more money and the environment is cleaner as a happy byproduct.
Re: Regarding mankind not warming the Earth, see my http://www.cfact.org/2018/01/02/no-co2-warming-for-the-last-40-years/
Your article is nonsense on stilts.
For example, you ascribe the long-term warming trend to ENSO. Yet when one uses the multi-variate ENSO index (MEI) to remove ENSO-induced warming, most of the warming is still. So your claim is bunk. It’s sad that you’re able to mislead people with the nonsense you post on disreputable website.
Below is your assigned reading on this topic:
(“Global temperature evolution 1979–2010”)
“Lower tropospheric temperatures 1978-2016: The role played by anthropogenic global warming”
“Spectrally dependent CLARREO infrared spectrometer calibration requirement for climate change detection”
“Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled”
“Equilibrium climate sensitivity in light of observations over the warming hiatus”
You have a severe problem separating fact and conjecture. The ill effects of tobacco and AIDs are facts whereas catastrophic global warming caused by man is a theory well beyond our ability to confirm one way or the other.
Try actually reading and understanding the “The Lure of Incredible Certitude”
Re: “The ill effects of tobacco and AIDs are facts whereas catastrophic global warming caused by man is a theory well beyond our ability to confirm one way or the other.”
Stop wasting my time with ignorant, evidence-free attacks on a straw man.
joelobryan | September 1, 2018 at 8:42 pm |
Atomsk’s “Global temperature evolution 1979–2010” graph is purely someone’s made-up graphics junk passed off as actual data from the listed sources..
For example, the real UAH global LT temp anomaly (v6.0) has 3 prevalent features.
1. A flat, oscillating temperature profile from 1979 to 1996.
2. A step change in 1997-2000 (the ’97 El Nino step change).
3. A flat, oscillating temperature profile from 2001-2015 (the Pause).
Compare those 3 features to the monotonically increasing ficticious “UAH” temp profile that Atomsk’s gives.
He’s trying to pass off obvious junk on people who know better.
Atomsk’s has No credibility.
Repeat, read and understand the article.
Your inability to separate fact from wishful thinking is troubling.
The old adage “follow-the-money” explains a lot of the “green-religion’s” zealot-like inability to rationally evaluate the issue without resorting to hysteria. Further pretty much a clear-and-present danger to intellectual freedom and leads rather directly to fascism’ s habit of resorting to fear, intimidation and violence to suppress those who object. Carefully consider the “science-is-settled” line of argument and numerous personal attacks routinely used by the “green-religion” crowd.
Re: “Atomsk’s “Global temperature evolution 1979–2010” graph is purely someone’s made-up graphics junk passed off as actual data from the listed sources..
If you’re bothered to actually read+understand the paper before you began ranting, then you’d know that the paper is showing the trends after removing the effects of ENSO (via MEI), changes in total solar irradiance (via TSI), volcanic effects via the AOD, etc.:
“Figure 4 shows the adjusted data sets (with the influence of MEI, AOD and TSI, as well as the residual annual cycle removed) for monthly data.
This is even clearer in the graph of annual averages of adjusted data in figure 5.”
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022/meta
Next time, actually read scientific papers before you comment on them.
It should have been obvious that this is what the graph did, since I showed the graph after I wrote this
“Yet when one uses the multi-variate ENSO index (MEI) to remove ENSO-induced warming, most of the warming is still [there].”
I even listed other sources that also showed most of the warming remaining, even after one corrects for ENSO. For instance:
But hey, maybe you’re one of those paranoid denialists who think mainstream climate science is “junk” that’s part of a massive conspiracy. If so, then explain why John Christy (in his garbage paper, no less) also has most of the tropospheric warming still there, with a largely monotonic rise after he uses the MEI to remove the effect of ENSO (among other other ocean cycles and another parameter to correct for volcanic effects:
[Bottom panel of figure 1 on page 513:
“Satellite bulk tropospheric temperatures as a metric for climate sensitivity”
http://www.sealevel.info/christymcnider2017.pdf%5D
So if you’re going to object to what I cited, then congratulations: John Christy (who co-authored that UAH analysis you cite) is on on the “junk” conspiracy, too.
Lulz.
joelobryan | September 1, 2018 at 11:33 pm |
Atomsk’s,
your graph is just assumptions on top of assumptions to make those kind of subtractive corrections for ENSO. ENSO and the accompanying global effects are deeply embedded in the internals of climate system. Models cannot understand the internal variability, much less substract for it on a global scale, and then come up with a temperature graphic that is simply montomically increasing.
Trying to subtract that out with our human knowledge is a black art, that is pseudo-science. It’s just someone’s opinion masquerading as science.
Javier | September 2, 2018 at 6:02 am |
Atomsk,
“Our conclusion is therefore that CAGW is simply a straw man used by climate contrarians”
OK. If global warming does not lead to a catastrophic outcome we have no reason to expend huge resources trying to fix it. Let fossil fuel depletion take care of it at its own pace.
Re: “OK. If global warming does not lead to a catastrophic outcome we have no reason to expend huge resources trying to fix it. Let fossil fuel depletion take care of it at its own pace.”
That’s a silly response from you, and illustrates some of the motives behind you contrarians abusing the “CAGW” straw man.
Anthropogenic climate change does not need to be a “catastrophe” in order for it to have negative effects. After all, contrarians/denialists will make sure to shift around the meaning of “catastrophe” in such a way that climate change never counts as a “catastrophe”. It’s akin to how many creationists will shift around the meaning of their term “molecules-to-man” evolution, in order to misrepresent mainstream evolutionary theory (as including abiogenesis, for example) and to make sure nothing ever meets their personal definition of the term. You conveniently left out that point:
Furthermore, plenty of things have negative effects that we focus on, without them being world-ending, human-species-ending catastrophes. For example: cancer, car accidents, gun violence, etc. These can be serious problems, without being world-ending catastrophes. So you’re offering a false dichotomy if you pretend that the only two options are “catastrophe” vs. “something positive or not harmful, that isn’t worth being concerned over”.
Re: “Atomsk’s,
Your reply is just evidence-free waffling. You’ve shown no problem with the MEI as a metric for ENSO. You’ve shown no problem with using the MEI to subtract out the effect of ENSO. You’ve simply ranted about models, while citing no evidence to back up your claims.
Do better.
Javier | September 2, 2018 at 4:14 pm |
Hey, I also think your responses are silly and I don’t tell you. It is a matter of education.
The question is that nobody has been able to successfully decarbonize the energy and keep the lights on. France is the closest case but it is not a green example.
Recently the Prime Minister of Australia was ousted because electricity has gotten mighty expensive without any significant advance in decarbonization and an alarming trend in blackouts.
So you are asking for a huge effort with a steep price in terms of economic performance on the basis of a bunch of unvalidated models? Heck, then the cure can be more catastrophic than the disease. Let’s deal with the problems when they show up. Long-term, fossil fuel depletion will take care of it.
Scott Koontz | September 2, 2018 at 4:48 pm |
““There are three major camps, if you like, in the debate. There are what are often called the warmers: those are people who think that humans are changing the climate, and that this is dangerous.”
Need we say more? This is a quote from a mathematician, who writes about policy as though we don’t know that the earth is warming (it is) and we don’t know why (we do.)
How is it dangerous to KNOW that the earth is warming and KNOW that man is the primary reason? It is extremely dangerous to write like you do, duping people into thinking that your quote has any merit in a science discussion.
Re: “So you are asking for a huge effort with a steep price in terms of economic performance on the basis of a bunch of unvalidated models? “
Nope. I’m asking for people to address the science, not a “CAGW” straw man they make up and then attack to misrepresent the science.
Let me know when you finally learn the difference between “science” and “policy”.
Ragnaar | September 2, 2018 at 6:59 pm |
Works out to 2.0 C per century. One less thing to worry about. Now we can get back cutting taxes, cutting down trees and drilling for oil on the North Slope.
The science is teed up, supported by the highest institutions in the land. Endorsed by Democrats everywhere. Good job. Now how about working nuclear power to provide us low carbon base load power?
Ragnaar, if you’re extrapolating, it is 3 C per century for land and 5 C per century for the Arctic. But that misses the point. The damage is and will be at the extremes and their frequency increases by an order of magnitude because it is a moving bell curve. This is often missed when just looking at how much the mean changes which is a bit blinkered.
It is not me who is mistaking them, but the scientists promoting policies.
And regarding catastrophism, I don’t know if you have heard about James Hansen’s book “Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity.”
There you have a scientist that is promoting CAGW, and he is not any scientist. Head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for over 30 years and probably the best well known climate scientist with Michael Mann.
Atomsk’s Sanakan: That’s a silly response from you, and illustrates some of the motives behind you contrarians abusing the “CAGW” straw man.
What’s silly is the claim that the “C” in “CAGW” is a “strawman”. Plenty of catastrophes have been foretold, using words and phrases that are near synonyms of “catastrophe”. From the common use of the word “urgent” (and near synonyms) in the calls for action, we could refer to “Urgent AGW”. Do you prefer avoiding catchall words all together for the class of warnings that urgent expensive actions are required to forestall great losses?
How about “existential threat” for “catastrophe”?
https://www.pe.com/2018/09/01/its-time-to-act-on-climate-with-a-tax-on-carbon/
We could go with “ETAGW”.
Re: “What’s silly is the claim that the “C” in “CAGW” is a “strawman”. Plenty of catastrophes have been foretold, using words and phrases that are near synonyms of “catastrophe”. From the common use of the word “urgent” (and near synonyms) in the calls for action, we could refer to “Urgent AGW”. Do you prefer avoiding catchall words all together for the class of warnings that urgent expensive actions are required to forestall great losses?”
It’s a straw man for the reasons already explained to you multiple times. Once again:
1) It involves a flexible, ill-defined account of “catastrophe”, that contrarians/denialists shift around whenever they like to make sure that nothing [which has scientific evidence supporting it] ever qualifies as a “catastrophe”.
2) Contrarians/denialist use it as a caricature of the mainstream position, even though it doesn’t actually match the mainstream position.
Atomsk’s Sanakan: It’s a straw man for the reasons already explained to you multiple times.
For the reasons that I have cited multiple times, I disagree with the claim that “CAGW” is a straw man. I’d be willing to go with some other phrase such as “Tax and Spend AGW”, “Existential Threat AGW”, “End of Civilization AGW”, “Lots of Disasters AGW”, :Harmful AGW”, “Urgent Action Needed AGW” and so forth. All of these locutions occur, along with “catastrophe”, in the writings of scientists who insist that urgent action is needed to prevent climate-induced catastrophes. An example from Hansen’s book title is presented below.
Scientific evidence that warming to date has done more harm than good, or any harm at all counterbalancing the increased rate of growth of the biota, is sparse or totally absent. “CAGW” is as useful a rubric as any for claims that harms to date outweigh benefits; as for claims that harms will be worse than benefits in the future.
Atomsk’s Sanakan: 1) It involves a flexible, ill-defined account of “catastrophe”, that contrarians/denialists shift around whenever they like to make sure that nothing [which has scientific evidence supporting it] ever qualifies as a “catastrophe”.
What claim of harm due to CO2-induced warming has scientific evidence supporting it? And what is the counter-evidence, say that benefits outweigh the harms?
MM, your definition then is a policy one. Is it catastrophic enough to decide to do anything is your question? You question whether we should try to hold CO2 levels well below 500 ppm and flat, or proceed to values well in excess of 600 ppm and rising at 2100 by continuing burn fossil fuels, finding more and burning those too. Maybe you need it to be “catastrophic” by some definition of your own choosing to even do anything at all including international agreements.
Re: “What claim of harm due to CO2-induced warming has scientific evidence supporting it? And what is the counter-evidence, say that benefits outweigh the harms?”
No need for you to pretend that anthropogenic climate change is just CO2-induced warming. For example, there’s anthropogenic ocean acidification.
Anyway, your questions are moot, and are just your attempt at dodging what I said. If someone offers the CAGW straw man and claim that they object to it, then the burden is on them to define it. Let me know when you can meet that burden. When someone asks you what you mean by “X”, you’re engaged in a red herring if you ask them for evidence on something else.
Javier | September 4, 2018 at 12:39 pm |
Atomsk:
“If someone offers the CAGW straw man and claim that they object to it, then the burden is on them to define it. Let me know when you can meet that burden.”
Trivial. I object to CAGW as is defined by James Hansen in:
Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity
He even talks about a runaway Venus syndrome if we burn all fossil fuels.
aaron | September 4, 2018 at 5:19 pm |
Am I bad person for enjoying Atomsk’s meltdown and total lack of sense for irony?
MM, if anyone has written anything at all about a 600-700 ppm world being better than a 300-400 ppm one, or a rapidly changing climate being better than a stable one, we need to see that. There’s a reason they haven’t tried to make that case.
Re: “He even talks about a runaway Venus syndrome if we burn all fossil fuels.”
It would help if you read the peer-reviewed scientific literature once in awhile, instead of using your “CAGW” idea to erect a straw man on mainstream climate science:
4C/x
Re: "Hansen isn't claiming that"
And on other occasions Hansen distinguished Venus' runaway greenhouse effect from Earth's situation. For instance:
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0294;
section 5b on page 17 and section 7d on page 24:https://t.co/VAE8oPK6YZ pic.twitter.com/rbIsb9pUUi
— Atomsk's Sanakan (@AtomsksSanakan) August 27, 2018
Atomsk’s Sanakan: Anthropogenic climate change does not need to be a “catastrophe” in order for it to have negative effects.
Are you in favor of policy changes and investments to prevent the negative effects you think will follow from CO2 increase?
It isn’t clear to me after reading all of your posts whether you do or do not wish to focus purely on the science.
Actually, right now you have 70 posts. I may not have read all of them. So if I missed a clear statement by you, I apologize.
Jim D: MM, if anyone has written anything at all about a 600-700 ppm world being better than a 300-400 ppm one, or a rapidly changing climate being better than a stable one,
I think you put the case backwards. No one has shown that the 600-700 ppm poses problems compared to the present 400 ppm, and no one has shown that the present post-1880 rate of warming poses insurmountable problems compared to the problems that we have now.
When problems are claimed, and expensive plans to prevent them are proposed, I generally find that the resources would be better spent on improvements to flood control and irrigation; but as we are always reminded, discussions of science are different from discussions of policy.
Another interminable thread signifying nothing. No one has shown even that the planet can get to 6 or 7 hundred parts in a million CO2.
The 21st century has seen things come to fruition in the coming of age of great agricultural and environmental revolutions. Driven from the bottom up – farmers, resource managers, architects and engineers – although the environmental scientist in me regrets how captured this has become by motivated activists. Restoring grasslands and forests, reclaiming deserts and enhancing productivity on agricultural – cropping and grazing – lands.
The pace of technological advance accelerates exponentially – across sectors and this inevitably reduces carbon intensity. In energy the holy goal is cheap and abundant power. This will inevitably emerge as either fossil fuels or something else. But I did note that the NRC accepted recently the TVA methodology for radically reducing the safety zone for SMR. Because they are inherently safer yet.
MM, you say it is backwards to defend a level of CO2 that we are headed towards without action. It is not. It is highly relevant to the future. The side about the negative impacts has been presented ceaselessly by the UN, economists, and many agencies and scientific societies. What is missing is any defense from the anti-action side for the climate state at 600-700 ppm. You will find that no one does that once they recognize the CO2 levels that go with growth as usual.
Oh Jiminy my Jiminy… the answer is technological innovation and more lately in the land use sector. Any inscrutable CO2 goal from on high is submerged by turbulent economics and politics in the global zeitgeist.
In the words of the hopefully immortal Bob Dylan the times they are a changin’.
Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone.
If your time to you
Is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’.
Re: “Are you in favor of policy changes and investments to prevent the negative effects you think will follow from CO2 increase?”
I’m not interested in policy, as I’ve told you on numerous previous occasions when you’ve tried to move the goalposts from science to policy. I’m interested in science.
So, for example, if you asked me what my stance was on cigarette taxes, then I would have no answer for you, anymore than I’d have an answer for you if you asked me what my policy stance was on carbon taxes. But I would have an answer if you asked me what my stance was on smoking causing millions of cases of cancer (it did), or my stance on whether anthropogenic CO2 increases caused most of the post-1950s global warming (it did).
Re: “Pretty much like the “green-religion”.”
Looks like you’re not only lifting nonsensical tactics from the tobacco industry, but from AIDS denialists as well. Nice job.
“Portraying Science as Faith and Consensus as Dogma
Since the ideas proposed by deniers do not meet rigorous scientific standards, they cannot hope to compete against the mainstream theories. They cannot raise the level of their beliefs up to the standards of mainstream science; therefore they attempt to lower the status of the denied science down to the level of religious faith, characterizing scientific consensus as scientific dogma”
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0040256#s4
I am clearly linking a portion of “climate science” to religious-like zealotry that seeks to destroy those who disagree. Unquestionably linking man’s CO2 emissions to catastrophe is an act of faith. As such, just like a religion. Lucky for many of us burning folks at the stake is no longer allowed.
Fact is, we have no way of forecasting our distant fate.
Re: “I am clearly linking a portion of “climate science” to religious-like zealotry that seeks to destroy those who disagree. Unquestionably linking man’s CO2 emissions to catastrophe is an act of faith”
Let me know when you move beyond evidence-free ranting about a straw man you fabricated.
Jim D | September 1, 2018 at 10:00 pm |
“Catastrophic” is a term the skeptics never want to define either. I have asked them what they mean by catastrophic. It can be more specific. Do they consider 4 C of warming catastrophic? How about 2 meters of sea-level rise? How about 700 ppm of CO2? Some substance would be nice just to even start a debate on impacts. No response.
I am fascinated to read – again – that they don’t think it is groupthink and that they don’t think it is catastrophic.
OMG! We are doomed!
For crying out loud, take a chill pill and stop wrapping yourself in the blanket of “mainstream science” which is just a bunch of folks sewing panic to enrich themselves at everybody else’s expense. “Standards of Main Stream Science” Really? What astounding arrogance.
My position is we do not know what the future holds from CO2 emissions because it is too complicated to determine. Fact. The only entity that knows is “God” and he’s not talking.
Re: “For crying out loud, take a chill pill and stop wrapping yourself in the blanket of “mainstream science” which is just a bunch of folks sewing panic to enrich themselves at everybody else’s expense”
Looks like you’re, once again, using the same sort of nonsense attacks on mainstream science (and mainstream scientists) that the other denialists used, including those from the tobacco industry. Congratulations on following their playbook, by acting as if “mainstream science” is a money making hoax meant to exploit others:
“Conspiracy Theories and Selective Distrust of Scientific Authority
Deniers argue that because scientists receive grant money, fame, and prestige as a result of their research, it is in their best interest to maintain the status quo [15]. This type of thinking is convenient for deniers as it allows them to choose which authorities to believe and which ones to dismiss as part of a grand conspiracy. In addition to being selective, their logic is also internally inconsistent..”
http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0040256
“For example, tobacco companies describe academic research into the health effects of smoking as the product of an ‘anti-smoking industry’, described as ‘a vertically integrated, highly concentrated, oligopolistic cartel, combined with some public monopolies’ whose aim is to ‘manufacture alleged evidence, suggestive inferences linking smoking to various diseases and publicity and dissemination and advertising of these so-called findings to the widest possible public’.”
https://academic.oup.com/eurpub/article/19/1/2/463780/Denialism-what-is-it-and-how-should-scientists
Jim D: “Catastrophic” is a term the skeptics never want to define either. I have asked them what they mean by catastrophic. It can be more specific.
You can get a start here:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/catastrophe
A bunch of interesting catastrophes are listed on the Wikipedia page for catastrophe.
You can start an ostensive definition by listing all the untoward outcomes of CO2 induced warming that we have to spend lots of time, effort, and money preventing. An article I linked to above refers to tropical storm Sandy, Hurricane Katrina, and the recent Redding fire as untoward events (down turns, as in the Greek etymology) ; he advocates a tax to prevent them from happening again.
Perhaps TSAGW for “Tax and Spend AGW” would satisfy you? Omitting references to taxing, spending, and other increases in government control would restore AGW to its rightful place as a scientific problem, like say “cold dark matter”.
MM, so when the skeptics deny catastrophe, what is it that they are saying can’t happen? Remember, to not be a straw man, it has to be something that the IPCC predicts will happen.
Jim D: Remember, to not be a straw man, it has to be something that the IPCC predicts will happen.
It would probably be a good thing to restrict ourselves to what IPCC says in its scientific sections. But since that is seldom done, addressing IPCC is not the standard for straw man. There is this example, for example: https://www.pe.com/2018/09/01/its-time-to-act-on-climate-with-a-tax-on-carbon/ .
“Disasters” is close enough to “catastrophes” (which etymologically is derived from down turns, and has never been specific.).
As to fires like the Redding fire, the recent reviews show no increases in duration, extent, or frequency of fires. But CA in particular regularly pays for its policy of allowing forest deadwood to accumulate between fires by its fire suppression actions. And for building in and near the forests.
MM, OK, you quote activists (in this case a lobbyist) on the reasons they feel action is needed. If your argument is with the activists, you need to tell them why you are happy not to do anything and leave the science out of it, or write op-eds like they do making a case for doing nothing or what you would prefer to be done.
Re: “Scientific evidence that warming to date has done more harm than good, or any harm at all counterbalancing the increased rate of growth of the biota, is sparse or totally absent. “CAGW” is as useful a rubric as any for claims that harms to date outweigh benefits; as for claims that harms will be worse than benefits in the future.”
Congratulations; that’s one of your personal definitions of “catastrophe”, which doesn’t match definitions you’ve cited on other occasions. For example:
You can start an ostensive definition by listing all the untoward outcomes of CO2 induced warming that we have to spend lots of time, effort, and money preventing.”
So you’ve already shifted between at least three non-equivalent definitions/accounts of “catastrophe”:
1) does more harm than good
2) has untoward outcomes that we have to spend lots of time, effort, and money preventing
3) disaster
This is an example of what I (and the source I cited) meant when I said you contrarians use your own flexible account of “catastrophe”. You use it to mean whatever you need it to mean at the moment, so that what you’re discussing doesn’t count as a “catastrophe”. For example, if I cited evidence to you on “untoward outcomes” from anthropogenic ocean acidification and thus met your definition #2, you’d likely just immediately shift to one of your other definitions. Similarly so for if I cited you evidence on the current anthropogenic mass extinction and CO2’s contribution to past mass extinctions. It’s akin to how a creationist can always shift around between multiple non-equivalent definitions of “molecules-to-man evolution”, to make sure no amount of evidence ever meets their definition.
Atomsk’s Sanakan: So you’ve already shifted between at least three non-equivalent definitions/accounts of “catastrophe”:
Do you want to avoid all together a word or phrase to denote the wide range of outcomes that we have been urged to prevent? I have given a bunch of alternatives.
Meanwhile, “catastrophic” is good enough for subsuming 1, 2, 3, and others. It isn’t purely baseless like a straw man because lots of catastrophes, disasters, etc are regularly forecast. What makes the word useful is the large and diverse number of outcomes that policy advocates are calling on us to prevent. If this remained a purely scientific discussion without prominent scientists prominently advocating expensive new policies, then such a word would probably not be used. Would you like to suggest a word to denote all these outcomes, subsuming all the lesser categories like disastrous fires, cyclonic storms, and plagues? It’s handy to have such a word so that one can write things like: As a CA taxpayer and voter, I support building and maintaining improved flood control and irrigation structures before investing $tens of billions trying to prevent the catastrophes predicted to follow from AGW.
Re: “Do you want to avoid all together a word or phrase to denote the wide range of outcomes that we have been urged to prevent? I have given a bunch of alternatives.”
I want you to address the actual science, not a straw man you invented. Similarly, I wanted creationists to address the actual science on evolutionary biology, not their “molecules-to-man evolution.”
I think MM means that using one word for it all allows him to dismiss it all at once in a non-specific way. It’s easy to see how this is a useful trick to avoid any specifics.
Jim D: I think MM means that using one word for it all allows him to dismiss it all at once in a non-specific way.
What do I “dismiss”? It is a word that lumps all the severe warnings together.
MM, it can or can’t be catastrophic depending on whatever definition you have in mind at the time. It is too vague for any proper discussion. You should ask yourself whether 4 C is catastrophic or a few meters of sea-level rise, or other more specific risk changes in regions. One word can’t cover that.
Happy Labor Day.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1979/trend
Simply taking GISS and the start year of 1979 as mentioned above, I get 0.7 C in 38 years which is think is 1.84 C in 100 years. Land only is:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/crutem4vgl/from:1979/trend
or 2.9 C per 100 years. This is outside of the policy window. There are so many things that are more important than this 2.9 C.
Ragnaar, Happy Labor Day.
What I was pointing out is it’s not the mean that does the damage, but the shifting extremes. It may be bad enough that a really hot (1 in 100 year) mean summer temperature now becomes cooler than average with a 4 C rise, but the real problem is that those really hot spells during those hot summers go beyond norms anyone has seen in the affected regions, and these record breakers continue at a high rate with climate change.
Ragnaar | September 3, 2018 at 10:49 pm |
I agree. The bell curve (my best guess) shifts to the right. So extremes on that side become more common. At the same time, people are becoming more insulated from such things. In the 1970s, my Grandma told it was 100 F out because that was unusual I suppose. One of the few places that had A/C was the nearby hospital. That was a big deal, a topic of conversation in that small rural town. Today I was visiting my Dad. It wasn’t that hot. He was running the A/C. Just about everyone has it. And electricity is cheap. So by just being capitalists, we insulated ourselves from the extremes. So as it’s worse, at the same time we are better.
That reminds me of one of Judith’s answers to the problem: Let them have A/C
This is just channeling Marie Antoinette, in my view.
popesclimatetheory | September 5, 2018 at 2:04 am |
They get that with the use of fossil fuels! The wind stops on some of the hottest days. The solar stops on all of the hottest nights. I hate trying to sleep when it is too hot.
Kip Hansen | September 1, 2018 at 12:08 pm |
Dr. Curry ==> Thanks for bringing the Manski paper to our attention. Absolutely marvelous.
scraft1 | September 2, 2018 at 9:03 pm |
Yes, maybe there’ll be some discussion of it.
Wagathon | September 1, 2018 at 1:49 pm |
Despite the allure of certitude, we simply do not know what the 21st century holds in store for us. Even so, I observe that nothing explains the level of certainty about AGW theory in the field of climatology that ultimately is not merely, cosmological.
AGW theory can never be reduced to a falsifiable hypothesis. It is interesting to see what the AGW mania has done to the economy and where it’s taking us. We need to read up on why some societies have problems while others do not.
Rather than inoculations to increase resistance to skeptics we should consider what causes Western scientists to require certitude. The cure is more good science to force the bad science out but we’re not getting that because government has something to gain from promoting bad science of Michael Mann, Al Gore and all of the UN-approved Eurocommies of anti-America, global warming alarmism.
“The cure is more good science to force the bad science out but we’re not getting that because government has something to gain from promoting bad science of Michael Mann, Al Gore and all of the UN-approved Eurocommies of anti-America, global warming alarmism.”
Let’s remember who “government” is. We hear a lot of Trumpism here and how good it is for the climate debate. But it certainly has not trickled down to research emphasis, at least to my knowledge.
Aside from Trump’s use of the climate issue as another arrow in his nationalism quiver, and some pushback against the regulation state, Trump seems to have little interest in the nuts and bolts of climate science, and I haven’t seen that anyone in his administration does either. I’m hoping that there’s a low profile effort to direct research money away from confirmation of the consensus, so that researchers testing orthodoxy will have a fair chance. If I’ve missed it someone let me know.
An interesting dynamic with the Trump administration was when General Kelly nixed the red-team-blue-team idea that Pruitt had. Pruitt was on the business side that sees climate change as something of an inconvenience to profit, while Kelly is in the military and knows from his background that it presents serious problems.
Wagathon | September 3, 2018 at 12:02 pm |
We’re actually funding global warming alarmism but some have a conscience– “At this point, the private sector seems like a more ‘honest’ place for a scientist working in a politicized field than universities or government labs — at least when you are your own boss.” ~Judith Curry
The “private sector” there was not the fossil fuel industry where Pruitt had his buddies.
Good stuff! Regarding the incentives for expressing unwarranted certitude. I offer the following: https://www.cato.org/publications/working-paper/government-buying-science-or-support-framework-analysis-federal-funding. Funding is an obvious incentive for reporting speculation as established fact, which is fundamental to climate change alarmism.
Regarding specific assumptions to generate a predetermined conclusion, here is a really good example: http://www.cfact.org/2018/03/01/circular-reasoning-with-climate-models/. First assume that the only significant forcings are human, then claim to have found that humans are causing the changes. How could it be otherwise?
Re: “Regarding the incentives for expressing unwarranted certitude. I offer the following: https://www.cato.org/publications/working-paper/government-buying-science-or-support-framework-analysis-federal-funding. Funding is an obvious incentive for reporting speculation as established fact, which is fundamental to climate change alarmism.”
Your logic is quite poor. For example, you’re going to engage in special pleading regarding who you apply your “funding” logic to. After all, all of the following people did government-funded research, yet you likely won’t claim they’re proponents of “alarmism”:
1) Roy Spencer and 2) John Christy:
“UAH version 6 global satellite temperature products: Methodology and results
This research was supported by *U.S. Department of Energy contract* DE-SC0012638.”
“The role of ENSO in global ocean temperature changes during 1955-2011 simulated with a 1D climate model
This research was supported by *NOAA contract* NA07OAR4170503 and *DOE [Department of Energy] contract* DE-FG02-04ER63841.”
“Time series construction of summer surface temperatures for Alabama, 1883–2014, and comparisons with tropospheric temperature and climate model simulations
Support for this paper was provided in part by the *Department of Energy* (DE-SC0005330) and by *USDA Grant* 2011-67004-30334.”
3) Richard Lindzen:
“On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications
This research was supported by *DOE grant* DE-FG02-01ER63257 […]”
4) Willie Soon:
“Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years
This work was supported by funds from the American Petroleum Institute (01-0000-4579), the *Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant* AF49620-02-1-0194) and the *National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant* NAG5-7635). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are independent of the sponsoring agencies.”
“Reconstructing climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years: a reappraisal
This work was supported by funds from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant AF49620-02-1-0194), the American Petroleum Institute (Grants 01-0000-4579 and 2002-100413) the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NAG5-7635), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant NA96GP0448). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are independent of sponsoring agencies.”
5) Judith Curry and 6) Peter Webster:
“Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century
Judith Curry’s contributions to this paper were supported by a *DOE STTR grant.”*
“Climate science and the uncertainty monster
This research was supported by NOAA through a subcontract from STG (Curry) and Grant NSFATM (Webster).”
“Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems
*DOE AWARD:* DE-SC0007554”
7) Roger Pielke Sr.:
“Climate-relevant land use and land cover change policies
R. A. Pielke Sr. received support from *NSF Grant* AGS-1219833.”
“Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities
The paper also benefited from USDA Grant 58-6445-6-068, the DOE ARM Program (08ER64674), NSF CAREER-0847472, and NASA’s Terrestrial Hydrology Program.”
8) David Legates:
9) Craig Idso:
10) Anthony Watts:
So congratulations on your paranoid, internally inconsistent reasoning. It certainly reminds me of something…
“Deniers argue that because scientists receive grant money, fame, and prestige as a result of their research, it is in their best interest to maintain the status quo [15]. This type of thinking is convenient for deniers as it allows them to choose which authorities to believe and which ones to dismiss as part of a grand conspiracy. In addition to being selective, their logic is also internally inconsistent.”
curryja | September 4, 2018 at 9:51 am |
Source of funding is a red herring in the climate debate, totally irrelevant. This is different from nutrition or pesticide research, when an interested private sector company is funding targeted research with the desire to prove their product safe. Grants from orgs like American Petroleum Institute or Institute for Energy Research (and from ‘green’ orgs) tend to be much general and investigator driven than say a grant from a food or pesticide manufacturer.
Ragnaar | September 4, 2018 at 10:11 am |
Atomsk’s Sanakan:
There’s you, those who are suggested to be deniers and the solution. The solution is lonely as you work on the deniers while ignoring it.
I called this meeting today so that two of you can argue but not offer up one thing we can implement to make things better, to improve our lot and that lot of society. Later, I’ll be meeting with the guy that fires people and a CPA to address the situation of how much some of you are contributing to the goals of this company.
popesclimatetheory | September 4, 2018 at 11:01 am |
Interesting viewpoint. If you are consensus alarmist or lukewarm alarmist, it likley is irrelevant. If you disagree with both of those, you are labeled a denier and not given funding, you have lawsuits filed against you and they even want to throw some of us in jail. It is not irrelevant for people who are truly skeptic.
Re: “Source of funding is a red herring in the climate debate, totally irrelevant.”
That’s a refreshingly interesting point from you regarding funding. You should share it with at least a couple of other people, so that they can also learn from it. For example:
Your past self:
“This advancement of their careers is done with the complicity of the professional societies and the institutions that fund science. […]
Further, the institutions that support science use the publicity to argue for more funding to support climate research and its impacts. […]
They are mainly concerned with preserving the importance of the IPCC, which has become central to their professional success, funding, and influence. […] Most don’t understand the policy process or the policy specifics; they view the policy as part an parcel of the IPCC dogma that must be protected and preserved at all cost, else their success, funding and influence will be in jeopardy.”
https://judithcurry.com/2010/11/03/reversing-the-direction-of-the-positive-feedback-loop/
David Wojick:
“I offer the following: https://www.cato.org/publications/working-paper/government-buying-science-or-support-framework-analysis-federal-funding. Funding is an obvious incentive for reporting speculation as established fact, which is fundamental to climate change alarmism.”
Joe Born | September 1, 2018 at 2:27 pm |
That economist’s assessment of how creditably climate science deals with uncertainty may be affected by the vast gulf between the types of assumption weakness to which the different disciplines give rise. To many folks who have more exposure to physical sciences, the assumption weakness resulting from low population sizes may not seem to compare to weakness caused by model time and location resolution orders of magnitude coarser than what would be needed to capture, e.g., thunderstorm and tornadoes.
A recent Free Thoughts podcast by Rick Evans talked about open source modeling in economics.
U.S. fiscal policy influences how $3.8 trillion is spent every year and from whom $3.2 trillion in tax revenues are taken. Estimates of the effects of proposed fiscal reforms come from a variety of economic models, ranging partial equilibrium microsimulation models, to reduced-form econometric models, to large-scale general equilibrium macroeconomic models. All of the models used to analyze and predict the effects of new fiscal legislation have hundreds–sometimes thousands–of degrees of freedom. They are also all proprietary and closed source, except for a few new models that I will highlight.
[ … ]
With a renewed emphasis recently in the social sciences on replicability and transparency, open source methods provide an ideal way to help research meet those standards. Furthermore, open source platforms such as GitHub, BitBucket, SVN, and others provide a method of collaboration that should facilitate more efficient collaboration across coauthors regardless of whether the research is open source or closed source.
https://github.com/uchicago-computation-workshop/richard_evans
Evans sees immense potential in the methods, practices, and even workflows that computer engineers have implemented in their own discipline, and is working to bring those skills into Chicago economics
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/news/feature-story/economics-amplified-rick-evans-how-computer-science-transforming-economics
As he was talking about the size and complexity of econometric models and how tools like GitHub can allow economists and students to check, critique and improve each others’ work, I wondered if those methods could be used to improve climate models.
double sixsixman | September 1, 2018 at 2:38 pm |
If I had wanted to use my BS degree
to study the climate, then there would
be a huge financial incentive to predict
a coming climate catastrophe, that needs
lot’s study, rather than telling the truth.
The truth is that the current climate is wonderful,
and no one has any idea what the future
will bring.
Climate models in the past 30 years,
that seem to say that CO2 levels
control the climate, with an ECS of +3.0 C.,
have made horrible predictions,
so it’s obvious humans can’t predict the
future climate, CO2 does not control the
climate, and the +3.0 degrees C. ECS
is nonsense.
Of course most “scientific” beliefs over
the centuries have proven to be wrong,
predictions of the future are usually
wrong, and some scientists will say
whatever they are paid to say (i.e.;
cigarettes are safe).
Real science has nothing to do with
consensus “votes” or computer games
(the so-called climate “models”
that make grossly inaccurate
average temperature predictions —
that adds up to self-serving junk science,
used for financial and political gain.
My climate change blog:
http://www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com
A chart for your collection. Let observations speak for themselves. 100 ppm per degree C equals 2.3 C per doubling.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/best/from:1950/mean:12/plot/esrl-co2/scale:0.01/offset:-3.25
It’s tough to believe Jim is a real person.
Just the facts. What is there not to like about facts? You may not like models or the basic physics, but this is what it looks like when observations fully support AGW too.
even the IPCC and their consensus climate science acknowledges CO2 warming is NOT a linear relationship between CO2 concentration and △T.
Over short ranges like 100 ppm it is linear enough as you can see.
Victor Adams | September 1, 2018 at 2:42 pm |
WW II South Pacific Fleet Admiral William (Bull) Halsey is said to have rebuked his meteorologist when told that long term weather forecasts (beyond 24- 48 hrs.) are practically useless due to the huge uncertainty: “I understand they are totally useless but I need them for planning purposes”.
He is also the guy who sailed his fleet into a typhoon (I believe a few times) and got a number of ships sunk. Also the guy who left a beachhead defended by just a few small ships to chase a decoy enemy fleet. Those small ships held-off the enemy at great cost with the survivors left adrift in the ocean for a few days. His zeal had a tendency to overwhelm common sense from time-to-time.
Well put essay and nice post. But I wonder how much certainty is needed. We are changing the atmosphere – itself an ambitious project – and the planet will evolve deterministically, dynamically complexly – in the scientific sense – as it always has. To my mind a definition of uncertainty.
But the anthropocene is ours to shape. And growing wealth, proliferating technologies and conserving and restoring ecologies is the optimum strategy. Building prosperous and resilient communities on soils and systems to which some of the 500 GtC lost since the advent of agriculture is restored. This works for not changing the atmosphere too.
But there is a certainty that exists in a group dynamic that marshals supporting evidence and rejects confounding. A psychopathology not amenable to treatment. Interacting rationally is neither possible or advisable.
“This works for not changing the atmosphere too.”
There is no reason not to believe that our distant descendants won’t thank us for rescuing the biosphere from near-CO2 starvation of the Quaternary. Thanking us for using this brief warmer period between major glaciations to create a technical society. A resilient technical society with the developed energy resources (nuclear, maybe fusion, maybe something else) able to withstand the reality that we live in an Ice-House epoch.
Descendants might or might not have thanked us – that question is not resolved for good reason – but the question seems unlikely to be put to them.
The pace in technological development in energy and other fields accelerates – and a much needed much more productive agriculture – both cropping and grazing – is coming this century. Using advanced techniques and technologies and based on increased soil organic content in living soils. Neither you nor I can stop it.
e.g. – top result from a past month google – https://www.agrighg-2018.org/fileadmin/shared/Excursion4_SOC_Management.pdf
They won’t thank us if we eke out the last drops of fossil fuels in the Arctic Ocean and Canada and pump up the climate with all its CO2, given that we knew the problems with that since the 20th century. They would thank us as the generation that went to renewable and sustainable clean energy and left those fossil fuels in the ground.
And again – they won’t thank us for stopping an unrealistic hypothetical. They will thanks us for a stable, peaceful, prosperous future.
A stable climate would be a good thing for sure.
A stable climate is pretty much off the wish list – it just never was. Best you can hope for Jiminy is resilience.
Stable is a relative term. For the last few millennia it didn’t change as much as a degree the whole time, so that is stable, but now we are looking at many degrees in a century – unstable. Sea level too, less than a meter to several meters.
Let’s get back to the reality of climate pootling along at 0.1C/decade in the postwar years. Benign but it may change.
And what sea level would you prefer?
The best sea level is the one we get – and enough wealth to adapt if needed. 3mm/year is not something on my alert list. On their list of course as a poster child for AGW catastrophe.
So 3mm/yr is what you prefer? You’re in for a disappointment.
Maybe or maybe not – actually I will be disappointed if it doesn’t change abruptly.
But even if 3mm is 100% anthropogenic – that’s about it. Get back to me in 50 years when the existing engineering safety margins are even marginally exhausted. .
melitamegalithic | September 4, 2018 at 2:28 am |
Please note that the ” brief warmer period between major glaciations” is replete with cataclysmic destructions that have repeatedly ended abruptly established civilisations. The major jerks in the curves very well shown in WUWT link here https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/04/paleoclimate-cycles-are-key-analogs-for-present-day-holocene-warm-period/ are those same events. Another link here: https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/2017/07/02/113/
It is a long hard perilous slog to the next ice-house, if we ever get there.
Robert – If you’re into “psychopathology” this may interest you?
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/05/why-its-so-hard-to-convince-pseudo-skeptics/
In a new study that just came out a couple of months ago they showed a single disgusting image, and one single disgusting image and measuring the brain activity and how the person responded to that was sufficient to allow you to identify if somebody was conservative or liberal. With a single brain image. With 95% accuracy!
In this case “a couple of months ago” was written three years ago.
More from Dr. Schreiber:
Liberals and conservatives exhibit different cognitive styles and converging lines of evidence suggest that biology influences differences in their political attitudes and beliefs. In particular, a recent study of young adults suggests that liberals and conservatives have significantly different brain structure, with liberals showing increased gray matter volume in the anterior cingulate cortex, and conservatives showing increased gray matter volume in the in the amygdala….
These results suggest that liberals and conservatives engage different cognitive processes when they think about risk, and they support recent evidence that conservatives show greater sensitivity to threatening stimuli.
angech | September 2, 2018 at 8:52 am |
” one single disgusting image and measuring the brain activity and how the person responded to that was sufficient to allow you to identify if somebody was conservative or liberal. With a single brain image.”
One imagines that this is descriptively wrong.
A disgusting image to a conservative, say Jimmi Hendrix or Hilary would not be able to be disgusting to a liberal. Conversely the Pope or John Wayne would not be disgusting to a conservative. Elvis might please nobody.
No, a single disgusting picture on its own would not be capable of allowing identification if its raison’détre was purely being disgusting.
I heard what he said. He must be misquoting the study or else using multiple pictures till the subject found one disgusting, in which case one would not need to measure brain activity , just ask them.
A second issue of course is if people who are liberal\conservative [choose your disgusting picture] can even be said to have any brain activity but…..
If you do your due diligence I think you’ll find that those are not the sort of “disgusting images” Dr. Schreiber had in mind!
Ulric Lyons | September 1, 2018 at 3:04 pm |
That would be everything from seasonal to centennial changes through the Holocene. It’s all placed in a folder called ‘Internal Variability’ and left well alone.
Nassim Taleb (The BlackSwan author) describes systems that thrive on “anti-fragility” in his book by that same name. That is anti-fragile systems improve under stress and strengthen. Anti-fragile systems, in his description, love uncertainty, randomness, being stressed.
In the same vein as the Manski quote, Dr. Taleb argues in his book that anti-fragile systems, precisely because randomness, uncertainty, and chaos are always present in natural systems, you want to acknowledge and then use them. Taleb’s anti-fragile concept is beyond resilience and robustness. It is a concept of systems that get stronger in the face of adversity and stressors. This is what science must be — anti-fragile. Even if it means crumbling cherished theories.
Taleb describes top-down systems as generally fragile. Bottom-up systems as being generally anti-fragile. Bottom-up in science are the thousands of scientists toiling away in labs and computer screens, analyzing data, able to publish results, results that are even contrary to “consensus.” Top-down science is journal gate-keepers enforcing a dogma/consensus, blocking skeptical (heretical) views. Top-down climate science will eventually crumble due to its fragility, unable to withstand a storm of eventually unavoidable contrary evidence.
In a larger context, science must be anti-fragile. Anti-fragile by always ready to examine and tear up assumptions. By critically examining them, exposing flawed assumptions makes science stronger as flawed theories get tossed, new explanations (for observations) attempted, and assumptions revised.
Consensus climate science is fragile – it has become top-down directeed. The IPCC and the various climate science gatekeepers for the peer-review process have in this way (by avoiding stressors, i,e, skeptical views) created a paradigm around strong CO2-GHG effect theory that is highly fragile.
Climate science is now unable to withstand shocks of an open debate with informed expert skeptics; because of gate-keeping at journals, exclusion of contrary views from the literature, making outcasts of academic faculty that dissent from climate change consensus. All this serves to deprive climate science knowledge of stressors, and this has created major areas of conventional certitude: predictions that are generally accepted as true but are not necessarily true. Without naming names, we know who most these “protectors” are, keeping their climate science from experiencing the shocks that would make it stronger.
In summary, today’s climate science is fragile. This cannot continue as the uncaring march of time and reality are the ultimate stressors that will crumble this fragile science. And when it does crumble, how much of the rest of science will it take with it as collateral damage?
Richard S J Tol | September 2, 2018 at 2:42 am |
Manski is a scholar of the highest calibre. Taleb is not.
JCH | September 2, 2018 at 8:44 am |
Curious George | September 2, 2018 at 1:59 pm |
A great picture you found! Links are so yesterday.
Gavin won’t talk to you about climate change. Probably a good thing. We agreed once that 0.1C/decade was a reasonable estimate of the postwar warming rate. Might climate not pootle – to use the inestimable Jim Hunt’s term -along at this rate at most?
The answer to the question of course is deterministic dynamic complexity – in the scientific sense – in the Earth system. No it might not.
Jim Hunt | September 1, 2018 at 5:37 pm |
Thank you for your kind words Robert!
Or were you just experimenting with newly discovered irony?
Some things are too small to be seen. Measuring black holes may be possible – I have just read an article.
And if Jim has found any irony here – he is not doing it right.
Re: “Gavin won’t talk to you about climate change.”
Which Gavin?
If you mean Gavin Schmidt, then he’s talked to Curry about climate change on multiple occasions. For instance:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ipcc-attribution-statements-redux-a-response-to-judith-curry/
Curry’s vapid response to Schmidt showed that Curry (not Schmidt) was the one who didn’t want a serious discussion:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ipcc-attribution-statements-redux-a-response-to-judith-curry/#comment-588835
If you mean Gavin Cawley, then Curry’s been avoid having a serious talk with him for years, especially after Cawley rebutted Curry’s nonsensical promotion of Salby’s debunked claims on the recent CO2 increases being non-anthropogenic:
FWIW I generally call Prof Curry “Prof Curry” but my questions about the science still went unanswered (relating to whether Prof Salby’s theory that she had previously promulgated on her blog was demonstrably incorrect https://t.co/xfalZFRf9v )
— Gavin Cawley (@Gavin_Cawley) August 25, 2018
Re: “We agreed once that 0.1C/decade was a reasonable estimate of the postwar warming rate”
Take a look, for once in your life:
[from: “Recent United Kingdom and global temperature variations”]
“Human-induced warming reached an estimated 0.93◦C (±0.13◦C; 5–95 percentile range) above mid-nineteenth-century conditions in 2015 and is currently increasing at almost 0.2◦C per decade.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031/
If Atomski missed the twitter culture reference – it’s too late – you have to be there.
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/38/16120
Try to remove the 20th century wiggles and it is some 0.1 degree C/decade.
Re: “Try to remove the 20th century wiggles and it is some 0.1 degree C/decade.”
Your cited source is from 2009, does not cover include the recent warming (up to 2017) discussed by the source I cited, and does not include the multiple temperature analyses used by the 2018 source I cited.
As usual, you’re quite bad at staying up-to-date of the relevant peer-reviewed literature.
He denies a minor 2009 study that discusses 20th century surface temperature because it too old? Apart from Kyle Swanson and George Sugihara – there is Emeritus Distinguished Professor Anastasios Tsonis. The blue team is looking a bit threadbare.
But whatever – this is on the front of Kevin Cowtan’s trend calculator page.
blob:https://wordpress.com/b65ff1e2-9a7b-4c97-8078-aa22d2a205af
Ahhh… Let’s try this.
HadCRUT4 plus kriging, since you asked.
You assume that was anthropogenic? There are no multdecadal climate? Which is why the longer timeframe is appropriate.
There are geophysics that are a complete mystery to them.
Why are you citing a GISTEMP rate beginning in 1880, when your claim was for the “the postwar warming rate”? I get that some contrarians on climate science are elderly political conservatives with memory problems, but even they should know WWII ended decades after the 1880s.
WWII ended in 1945. So what are some of the post-war GISTEMP rates? Well:
Post-1880 trend (what you cited): 0.072 K/decade
Post-1946: 0.135 K/decade
Oh look, the post-war warming rate accelerated, based on the very data source you cited. So one of the sources I cited was corrected:
Now, I don’t expect any of this evidence to actually get you to change your mind, based on your past behavior. But maybe this discussion will be a useful exercise for rational, intellectually honest people
http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.proc.pl?dataset1=GISTEMP&dataset2=none&var=2m+Air+Temperature&level=1000mb&pgT1Sel=10&pgtTitle1=&pgtPath1=&var2=Geopotential+Height&level2=1000mb&pgT2Sel=10&pgtTitle2=&pgtPath2=&fyear=1946&fyear2=2018&season=0&fmonth=0&fmonth2=11&type=0&climo1yr1=1981&climo1yr2=2010&climo2yr1=1981&climo2yr2=2010&xlat1=-90&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&maskx=0&zlat1=0&zlat2=90&zlon1=0&zlon2=360&maskx2=0&map=0&yaxis=0&bar=0&smooth=0&runmean=1&yrange1=0&yrange2=0&y2range1=0&y2range2=0&xrange1=0&xrange2=0&markers=0&legend=0&Submit=Create+Plot
[from: “Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/seasonal time series” https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl
“Web-Based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tools (WRIT) for analysis and comparison of reanalyses and other datasets”]
This was what popped up on the page – but feel free to plug in some other year.
Re: “You assume that was anthropogenic? There are no multdecadal climate? Which is why the longer timeframe is appropriate.”
No, the longer timeframe was not appropriate. When you make a claim about a certain timeframe, then you should examine that timeframe. It’s not that hard to grasp. If you want to address multidecadal variability with respect to that timeframe, then examine the variability in that timeframe. You don’t get to act as if the rate for the longer timeframe is the same as the rate for the shorter timeframe.
bobdroege | September 6, 2018 at 12:55 am |
Dear me, Atomsk’s
You thought he meant the Second World War, sometimes those Aussie accents can be quite thick, he meant the Second Boer War.
What Bob doesn’t know – inter alia – is that Atomski has lost this battle and the war.
Re: “Let’s get back to the reality of climate pootling along at 0.1C/decade in the postwar years. Benign but it may change.”
“We agreed once that 0.1C/decade was a reasonable estimate of the postwar warming rate. Might climate not pootle – to use the inestimable Jim Hunt’s term -along at this rate at most?”
Not really, since the warming accelerated, as I explained to you elsewhere:
You cited a post-1880 GISTEMP trend to me:
WWII ended in 1945, so why you started he trend in 1880 is beyond me. So what are some of the post-war GISTEMP rates? Well:
You can check that here:
1) http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
2) “Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool: Monthly/seasonal time series” https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/testdap/timeseries.pl
Thus the post-war warming rate accelerated, based on the very data source you cited. That matches one of the sources I cited to you:
The acceleration is also evident in the graph I cited to you before:
[Figure 1b: “Recent United Kingdom and global temperature variations”]
There are many other things happening in climate in the hyper complex Earth system. Just not things that Atomski is across.
Re: “There are many other things happening in climate in the hyper complex Earth system. Just not things that Atomski is across.”
Congratulations on your red herring, and attempt to move the goal-posts. Now that your mistakes on the rate of warming were corrected, you’re now moving the goalposts to the factors that affect the rate of warming. Sorry, but that evasion of your’s won’t work. You were wrong on what the rate of warming was; discussing the causes for the rate doesn’t change your error.
But since you seem committed to moving the goalposts to that topic, then here’s your assigned reading:
“Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature since the late 19th century”
To avoid cluttering up posts with needless repetitious. LOL.
But I should put it in the right place.
And again I stuffed it up. It’s not funny any more.
But I do appreciate the lectures on my intellectual inadequacies. And the certifiable proofs provided.
Although I wonder if Carl Wunsch’s – a well known non-denier – assertion that very little is proven might apply here.
Is this my thread? God forgive me. Atomski’s problem – inter alia – is that centuries of observation is need for any multi-decadal statistical power.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00003.1
More salt in a Law Dome ice core is La Nina and more rain for Australia. But as emissions took off only post 2nd world war – and covering cool and warm Pacific regimes – my preferred method is to average warming over 1944 to 1998 period. Climate shifted again after that.
The residual – some 0.4 degrees C – may be anthropogenic. Then again the centennial record suggests a much longer term dynamic.
Re: “Is this my thread? God forgive me. Atomski’s problem – inter alia – is that centuries of observation is need for any multi-decadal statistical power.”
You apparently don’t understand the breadth of the data available, nor how to calculate statistical power. Your assigned reading is below:
[from: “A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era”]
[from: “Pacific ocean heat content during the past 10,000 years”]
“Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years”
Click to access Knudsen-etal-TrackingAMOPast8000yrs-Nature2011.pdf
I showed Atomski a 1000 year ENSO proxy – and decadal surface and satellite cloud observations. The warmer and cooler sea surfaces generate open or closed cell cloud in the tropics where most ocean warming happens (e.g. Koren 2017). It’s just geophysics Atomski.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/ArgoGlobalSummaryGraph.gif.
The AMO is regarded as being caused by ocean circulation changes induced by the NAO/AO. A symptom of enhanced meridional or zonal wind pattern emerging from the pole. With significant implication for NH climate. Solar UV may be implicated (e.g. Ineson et al 2015). –
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
And for surface temperature I just go back to PAGES 2013.
Emerging out of a centuries long cooler period – both ocean and atmosphere – with varying regional leads and lags? Anyone else bored with Atomski’s antics?
Besides I’m not sure Atomski appreciates – in both senses – the nature of the statistics that emerge from long climate series.
Click to access Panta-Rhei-and-its-relationship-with-uncertainty.pdf
It is very on topic too. ‘Panta rhei and its relation to uncertainty.”
“Entropy ≡ Uncertainty quantified.
Re: “And for surface temperature I just go back to PAGES 2013.”
As usual, you’re out-of-date and uninformed on the relevant literature. I already cited the more recent PAGES results to you:
“A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era”
Knowing what I am talking about is what distinguishes me from Atomski.
The difference between the 2013 and 2017 PAGES articles – and I have gone into both in some detail – is marginal in terms of the number and precision of proxies. The 2013 paper provided a regional analysis rather than just a global average.
There seems a pattern of mid millennia cooling and some patchy warming. It could be an accident. With lags and leads in the system. Note the modern polar anti-phase. Which is why I said I was going back to 2013.
If we deconstruct Atomski’s language on the other hand. I am out of date for referencing a 2013 paper – but is the data out of date? A few years in 1000’s? And I am therefore as usual an ignorant and arrogant SOB – guilty as charged – who sees no point in talking to him? Sound about right? ✨🤷♀️
Re: “If we deconstruct Atomski’s language on the other hand. I am out of date for referencing a 2013 paper – but is the data out of date?”
Looks like you’re talking to yourself again, and contradicting the standards you’ve applied before, as usual:
“Here’s something a little up to date for Atomski. Data is unlike wine – the newer it is the better.”
A few years added to the short satellite record makes a great deal of difference. Whether the millennial proxy data can be added to on such short periods is a question. This is more of Atomski’s motivated nonsense.
Re: “A few years added to the short satellite record makes a great deal of difference.”
It’s not my fault that you thought a paper from 2017 came after a paper from 2018. Just because I can tell time doesn’t everyone can.
I showed the graph of TPW and tropospheric temp from a 5th of June 2017 paper. This – https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0768.1 from Atomski – comes from the 5th of June 2017. Another pointless Atomski p!!ssing contest? But Mears and Wentz (2017) have the updated version – I win.
The substantial point remains – discerning the differences between PAGES proxies over more than a 1000 years and the satellite records. Atomski lacks discernment.
Re: “I showed the graph of TPW and tropospheric temp from a 5th of June 2017 paper. This – https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0768.1 from Atomski – comes from the 5th of June 2017. Another pointless Atomski p!!ssing contest? But Mears and Wentz (2017) have the updated version – I win.”
SMH. I don’t know what *sigh* means. Kiss sigh kiss? In his dreams.
This is what I referred to from the RSS site. See the whole page.
http://www.remss.com/research/climate/
“His” paper has the same TPW data from RSS – just far less pertinent information. I win again. Atomski is an utter waste of our time.
I don’t know what *sigh* means. Kiss sigh kiss? In his dreams.
“His” paper has the same TPW data from RSS – just far less pertinent information. less of it. I win again. Atomski is an utter waste of our time.
I started reading of the post with comments for good reason. To see certainty and uncertainty at work.
Atomski’s wriggle is manufacturing uncertainty about certainties. Global warming is real and dangerous.
Complexity in the Earth system is dispatched as inventions of sinister organisations. JCH’s wriggle is channeling a dead scientist. Jim Hunt went somewhere else.
Wow – I am following with interest.
I have often criticized people for hijacking Feynman, and other dead scientists.
JCH is certain they are all on his side.
Where the F do you get that? Feynman is invoked by climate skeptics a gob zillion times. I just point out he’s dead, and cannot defend himself against hijackers.
talldave2 | September 3, 2018 at 7:57 pm |
“Religion is a culture of faith; science is a culture of doubt.”
“I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.”
“We are trying to prove ourselves wrong as quickly as possible, because only in that way can we find progress.”
“If you thought that science was certain – well, that is just an error on your part.”
“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.”
If all these quotes seem to land rather firmly on a particular side of AGW, perhaps that has more to do with AGW than the people quoting him.
The counter to this article is manufactured uncertainty, e.g.
https://journals.lww.com/epidem/fulltext/2008/11001/Doubt_is_Their_Product__Public_Health_and.58.aspx
Judith has had a lot of articles on this topic – not.
The counter to this comment is motivated certainty in a group dynamic.
An impossible illusion of certainty – whether believed or pretended – plays into pissant progressive, neo-socialist agendas. You know the fringe who supported Bernie Sanders. What a cruel joke Trump was for them.
Ironic then that the certainty of the complex deterministic dynamic of the Earth system reveals a deep uncertainty.
As I just posted elsewhere here, the basic observations support AGW too. Skeptics have to claim that is dumb luck rather than actual physics and energy conservation in action.
Jiminy’s 93% (sic) correlation with surface temp and CO2? The alternative is a complex deterministic dynamic system that changes with internal mechanisms quite separate to any mooted anthropogenic energy imbalances. Jiminy’s wood for dimwits graph supports nothing nearly as interesting as that.
This is an overwhelmingly powerful scientific paradigm – identified as such by the NAS as early as 2002 – relegated to outer darkness of uncertainty manufactured by sinister organisations? Conspiracy theory much?
That puts you firmly in the just dumb luck school of thought.
Jiminy’s science is limited to various misapplications of the most basic of geophysics. There is an advanced geophysics consensus that Jiminy cannot even contemplate. Why is that?
When you figure out an alternative to energy conservation, send it to the Nobel committee.
And the reason you bother us with this nonsense is?
I point out that the observations (and we have over 60 years of the Keeling curve now) support AGW (effective TCR=2.3 C per doubling) with a correlation of 0.93 and you’re having none of it. That’s for you to explain because I can’t.
I have already Jiminy – many times.
Energy conservation and the Nobel committee? I already know why the rest of your theory is junk. I
So you have settled in your mind that it 0.93 and not 93%. You can thank me anytime. But here we are again – such a stupendously improbable claim requires only an ordinary proof. Where would that be?
Percentages seem to confuse you, so I am avoiding that. If someone says something is 100% correlated, you would not have a clue what that means. I get it. It is not an improbable claim because the log relation is expected from basic physics. What is improbable is that you get 0.93 by chance with 60 data points and both are varying nonlinearly with time. What are the odds of that?
I think I covered percentages in engineering, hydrology or post graduate science. But none of this makes any sense at all. Jiminy claimed a stupendously impossible 93% correlation between surface temperature and atmosphere. I allowed as it might be a coefficient of determination rather than a correlation as such. Foolish of me – Jiminy doesn’t know the difference of course and then he argues mightily that it was my fault for not understanding percentages.
I got 0.83 from memory for things that are inextricably cause and effect in the Earth system. Ingoing and outgoing energy changes very substantially for numbers of reasons – and the Earth warms or cools. A bit like death and taxes or Jiminy’s unattractive attempts to wiggle out of admitting error.
A 0.93 correlation is still such an extraordinary claim by Jiminy and one that requires only an ordinary proof. Let me predict that it will never be forthcoming.
Take the last 60 years of global temperature, annual average, and CO2, annual average. Plot the log of CO2 against temperature (x and y), and find the correlation. This can all be done on Excel which also gives the gradient as 0.66 W/m2/K when log of CO2 is converted to W/m2 with a simple function.
Actually I meant 0.66 K/(W/m2), equivalent to 2.4 C per doubling.
I always think monthly because that’s where extreme variability is – but use yearly averages from say 1944 if you like – to get a true natural variability in there. I know how to do it in excel. You show us the graph with the correlation in the top left hand corner. An ordinary and simple proof and not more mere word salad is what Jiminy would need.
It was HADCRUT4 and a running 12-month mean of temperature and CO2 for the period covered by Keeling until 2018. If it was 0.93 would you change your mind about the effect of CO2 on climate? I thought not.
Robert I. Ellison | September 2, 2018 at 12:00 am |
I’m game – I will change my mind that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
We could even say that a 0.93 correlation between temperature and CO2 forcing for the last 60 years is a level of certitude that you find incredible, right?
If you believe the correlation, you also believe the slope which is effectively 2.4 C per doubling. That would be a slippery slope for you, so to speak.
Your correlation? I don’t think so.
You have been caught out in a fabrication Jiminy. Wear it.
Even if I showed you all the numbers, you would not believe me until you did it yourself. The denial in you is strong. Come back when you have done it.
popesclimatetheory | September 5, 2018 at 10:50 pm |
and we have over 60 years of the Keeling curve now) support AGW (effective TCR=2.3 C per doubling) with a correlation of 0.93
The warming into the Roman and Medieval warm periods correlated with this CO2 also, Oops, this CO2 was not part of the Roman and Medieval warming.
“Lean and Rind (2008) performed a multivariate correlation analysis for the period 1889–2006 using the CRU temperature data (Brohan et al 2006), and found that they could explain 76% of the temperature variance over this period from anthropogenic forcing, El Niño, volcanic aerosols and solar variability.”
It is obvious that Jiminy made it up and shamefully obfuscates.
Obviously they were not looking at the correlation between temperature and log CO2 over the last 60 years, so that’s apples and oranges. You seem very interested in this so here’s what I get using 60 years of annual averages (not running means as I did before).
BEST, r=0.934, gradient = 2.4 C per doubling
GISTEMP, 0945, 2.5 C
HADCRUT4, 0.918, 2.2 C
The high correlations make those gradients well constrained. This is a level of certitude that you find incredible, but it’s just what the observations show you.
No Jiminy – no more words – no more games – let’s see the graph, the data and the excel correlation for this impossible thing that you made up. Stop wasting our time and get on with it. .
RIE, your lack of belief is your problem, not mine. I gave you what I did. The raw data is here. Go to the Raw Data link at the bottom of the graph and copy and paste the numbers into your Excel program. That’s what I did.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1958/mean:12/every:12/plot/best/from:1958/mean:12/every:12/plot/gistemp/from:1958/mean:12/every:12/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/every:12
Here’s the same data with CO2 rescaled to fit on the same plot. It is very clear that these are highly correlated and this is what it looks like when 60 years of raw observations supports a theory.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1958/mean:12/every:12/plot/best/from:1958/mean:12/every:12/plot/gistemp/from:1958/mean:12/every:12/plot/esrl-co2/mean:12/every:12/scale:0.01/offset:-3.25
Hifast | September 1, 2018 at 4:36 pm |
sheldonjwalker | September 1, 2018 at 5:10 pm |
❶①❶①❶①❶①
①❶①❶①❶①❶
On our menu this week, we have something to offend everyone.
Global warming – how long do we have left?
https://agree-to-disagree.com/global-warming-how-long-do-we-have-left
Solving Global Warming is easy. _ (a do it yourself guide)
https://agree-to-disagree.com/solving-global-warming-is-easy
If the earth was an apple pie… _ (a delicious global warming dessert)
https://agree-to-disagree.com/if-the-earth-was-an-apple-pie
Peter Lang | September 1, 2018 at 7:31 pm |
Do you understand that global warming is beneficial? If not, why not?
like most things in life, global warming has its good points, and its bad points.
I don’t deny that there are some bad points.
But Alarmists deny that there any good points. And exaggerate the bad points.
I will stop mocking them, when they adopt a more balanced view.
They make such easy targets.
Ron Stabb (@RStabb26) | September 1, 2018 at 5:35 pm |
From a retired auto mechanic who spent thirty of my forty-five years wrenching diagnosing and repairing emission controls. I’ve followed this climate debate since the early 1970’s.
The article is over my head, to be honest with you, but I do know this. The alarmists are out of control, I know this from arguing the FACTS with them for hours a day in the local newspaper letters to the editor section.
That 97% consensus lie gets thrown around like a religious creed to these zealots. There is no reasoning with them.
Anyway, I enjoy the work you do…
Salvatore del Prete | September 1, 2018 at 6:19 pm |
The so called AGW era is over it ended in late 2017 . This year is the transitional year and cooler temperatures will be the rule moving forward.
This will be in response to the weakening of the solar/geo magnetic fields which has been going on for several years, and should continue moving forward.
Thus far since late 2017 overall global sea surface temperatures as well as global temperatures are trending lower.
As they say the climate test is on and now- next few years should be revealing.
Mike Jonas | September 1, 2018 at 6:50 pm |
The IPCC have a very clever approach to get around the problem that everything they are dealing with is uncertain. They say that everything is uncertain (satisfying Charles Manski’s main requirement), but then they mention no other possibilities. The reader is given one story only, and it is repeated so many times that the impression is given that the story must be true. So although they appear to do what Charles Manski advises, the advice they are actually following is that of Joseph Goebbels: “If you repeat a lie often enough, people will believe it, and you will even come to believe it yourself.”.
Steven Mosher | September 1, 2018 at 7:39 pm |
hmm. not so sure about that.
cerescokid | September 1, 2018 at 11:16 pm |
I understand why you’re not sure and that is why you believe what you do. The essence of the post is self evident and obvious. But only to those who are open to understand the obvious.
Emperor Mosh is correct in a roundabout, Machiavellian way – channeling Stephen Schneider as he seems to be. It’s perfect. They don’t even have to remember their lies. Their liturgy evolves at light speed on the internet. Where they rehearse at any rate at the feet of gatekeepers like realclimate, ATTP or hotwhoppethecowgirlfromupperbouledehilia – but what they say doesn’t really matter as long as they deny any uncertainty and make fun of troglodytes.
are you certain i am channeling schneider.
you would be wrong.
you forgot to list what you dont know.
it is so funny to watch you all be so certain about uncertainty.
No, he didn’t forget. He knows everything.
And to be honest – I’ve forgotten most of what I did know.
Wow uncertainty is uncertain. Like blows my mind man.
Turbulent Eddie | September 2, 2018 at 2:23 pm |
I don’t know either, but consider me ambiguously amused.
Turbulent Eddy: I don’t know either, but consider me ambiguously amused.
If you ever admit to having been wrong, that will be held against you as a mark of your unreliability. Above, Atomsk’s Sanakan does that with Heartland Institutes admission that they were wrong about second hand smoke.
Way back a long time ago Ernest Rutherford had a strong influence when he said that no source of power existed to have pushed the continents apart, as hypothesized by Wegener. Of course, a truthful utterance would have been “If there is such a source of power, I don’t know what it is”.
So back to the quote that Steve Mosher is not so sure about: “If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.””
Has anyone ever won a public argument by being up front about what they do not know?
angech | September 1, 2018 at 8:01 pm |
“And now time for the next monthly temperature reports, Snowing in Australia and Italy the last few days but fires everywhere the rest of the month. JCH quiet again.
Arctic Sea Ice blog very quiet.
Like the Stockmarket. Which way will it break?”
Ahh, now we know.
What a great lag effect from the wimpy La Nina.
How low can it go?
“The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for August, 2018 was +0.19 deg. C, down from the July value of +0.32 deg. C: ”
There should be a flattening out in the next few monthswith slightly warm tropics bu even so one can wish.
Certitude of Global warming being man made?
Bunkum.
JCH | September 1, 2018 at 10:04 pm |
Lol. Just lol. How low can it go? Not very low.
Faustino aka Genghis Cunn | September 6, 2018 at 9:42 pm |
I believe there are currently about 5,000 electric vehicles in Australia, I would expect that almost all were bought by virtue-signalling green-left-leaning governments. The non-government demand for hybrids and ev’s is very low.
I take it that you missed the message about Neven’s “sabbatical”?
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/11/sabbatical-i-wish.html
If you’re suffering from withdrawal symptoms there’s always the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,3.0.html
Thanks , Jim. I do go over to the forum for the PIOMAS updates by Wipneus particularly the mid month one he puts up that most people seem unaware of.
I thought that you had had a little hiatus recently though making up for it now which is good. Yes saw Neven was away, I was referring more to his blog which gets 60-100 monthly with bad ice melts and 10-30 when the PIOMAS is misbehaving itself and increasing like now.
He could get more but bans some riff raff [sigh].
Keep posting.
I like reading different sites and ones like yours with different views to mine.
My alter ego did indeed suffer from a “brief hiatus”. That’s because in my professional capacity I have been rather busy spending a modest amount of Great British taxpayers’ money:
http://www.v2g-evse.com/2018/08/06/department-for-transport-invests-in-v2g-evse/
This is what the DfT had to say about our “Vehicle to grid controller with modular communications” project, seed funded by the Department for Transport in response to our “Transport Technology Research Innovation Grant Open Call” bid:
“Developing a prototype for a vehicle to grid electric vehicle charging station controller, which will enable optimal charging across multiple vehicles, managing energy demand. This will include modular communications which will provide information to a central system.”
climatereason | September 2, 2018 at 10:04 am |
Good stuff on that link. Well done! I hope electric vehicles are the panacea sought. I have had an electric bike for years, which I charge via a small solar panel. The trouble is if it runs out of power at the bottom of a hill…!
Electric cars need to make the transition to a sensible first choice as a first-rather than second- car, available at a sensible price. That includes the times when its not ‘sunny south western England’ but its pouring with rain, its dark and cold and we are going over Dartmoor, up and down steep hills with four people, with headlamps, wipers, heater and radio on, without looking nervously at the gauge.
(full disclosure: My electric bike ran out of power at the foot of a hill this morning) :)
Sincerely, well done.
Jim Hunt | September 2, 2018 at 12:11 pm |
Thanks for your kind words Tony. It makes a pleasant change to get some inward investment into the South West from Westminster rather than Brussels!
Given that our Glorious Government states that it intends to electrify both transport and heating it’s currently unclear to me where all the necessary generation is going to come from. It’s probably even less clear to them!
N.B. My own bike works on muscle power alone. Rain or shine. Summer or winter!
climatereason | September 2, 2018 at 1:01 pm |
The trouble with relying on electric is that if it runs out then the bike and battery is EXREMELY heavy and it is impossible to cycle up anything remotely steep unless you’ve just returned from winning the mountain stages of the tour de france.
I have no idea either where the power for electric cars is supposed to come from. Things are very tight anyway without millions of vehicles-cars AND commercial vehicles- needing recharging.
tonyb.
Always charge your electric vehicle overnight, using abundant solar power. /sarc
George – I think you’ll find that there aren’t many charging stations in the Land of the Midnight Sun:
Jim Hunt: http://www.v2g-evse.com/2018/08/06/department-for-transport-invests-in-v2g-evse/
Thank you for the link. My son is a fan of electric cars — that is, an enthusiast..
My pleasure Matthew.
Allan (@Allan48933312) | September 1, 2018 at 8:36 pm |
Highly relevant here; a must read. Free copy below.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-1891-2005.49.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiC3-aihJvdAhURXK0KHcGOCaAQFjAAegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw2EtTRepN36CLXxFqTsPDOF
nobodysknowledge | September 2, 2018 at 3:44 am |
Thank you. A very useful reference.
ozonebust | September 1, 2018 at 9:32 pm |
Uncertainty is the only certainty there is and learning to live with insecurity is the only security.
John Allen Paulo’s
Now, when uncertainty and insecurity are turned to fear by extremists, when they have no greater certainty, and a select few profit from that fear, when do those actions become criminally misleading.
angech | September 1, 2018 at 10:40 pm |
The lag effect is nearly over but the overall anomaly is not that high and the tropics are not that hot. There may still be room for a few more surprises for JCH and if El Nino does not develop then the absolute temps cannot go that high and may continue falling into close to zero anomalies. If a proper La Nina all bets off.
Interesting to watch the contortions the ground stations will have to go through to cut off the good news.
Perhaps we will have to use ATTP’S 60 airport stations only to keep the falsehoods flying.
Joseph Ratliff | September 1, 2018 at 11:57 pm |
Reblogged this on Quaerere Propter Vērum.
I bookmarked Atomski’s link – it looked instantly familiar. Comfortable as an old favourite. I like them a lot.
“Lean and Rind (2008) performed a multivariate correlation analysis for the period 1889–2006 using the CRU temperature data (Brohan et al 2006), and found that they could explain 76% of the temperature variance over this period from anthropogenic forcing, El Niño, volcanic aerosols and solar variability. The long-term warming trend almost exclusively stems from anthropogenic forcing. They also analyzed the geographic distribution of the temperature response. In a follow-up paper (Lean and Rind 2009) they applied their results to discuss the expected climate evolution over the coming two decades. Our regression analysis uses a similar approach to Lean and Rind, but is applied here to compare five different global temperature data sets over the past 32 years.”
I have been there and I have the t-shirt. A diffident as I always am I hesitate to quibble – but the treatment of the Pacific factor may be a little exploratory still.
I juxtapose that with Clements et al 2009 COADS and ISCCP observations of cloud in the north-eastern Pacific.
And Wong et al 2006 ERB satellite observations of toa outgoing radiant flux.
If real it shows low frequency variability in the climate system – and the equivocal factor for the IPCC was sporadic cloud observations of mainland America. The relevance of the latter may not be immediately obvious.
“In summary, although there is independent evidence for decadal changes in TOA radiative fluxes over the last two decades, the evidence is equivocal. Changes in the planetary and tropical TOA radiative fluxes are consistent with independent global ocean heat-storage data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud radiative forcing. To the extent that they are real, they may simply reflect natural low-frequency variability of the climate system.” https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-4-4-1.html
So even when we have a collection of bits the complexity of even this sub-system is daunting. Are all the pieces even assembled? On this evidence – if real – something very powerful with less cloud over warm ocean surfaces in the Pacific was happening in the period. 21st century technology shines an even harsher light – it is happening. Koren (2017) – Exploring the nolinear rain and cloud equation – has a mechanism in Rayleigh–Bénard convection in a fluid heated from below.
But even with the parts the whole is greater still. This grand dynamic deterministic complexity – in the scientific sense – is a whole new uncertainty ballgame. I don’t know what the consensus is here but it is such a powerful idea in so many fields including climate and models. It was identified as a new climate paradigm by the NAS as long ago as 2002 – denying it now is like denying relativity or quantum mechanics. It was the third great idea of 20th century physics.
I note as well with a straight face that Brohan et al 2006 explained 76% of temperature variation in this natural warming regime. Because we know that Pacific regimes contributed to warming after the 1976/77 Pacific climate shift (NASA 2008) – or do we?
… explained (by CO2) 76% of temperature…
Geoff Sherrington | September 2, 2018 at 3:10 am |
Two first thoughts.
1. Anon: There is always doubt. There is no doubt about that.
2. Those who understand and agree with the gist of the Charles Manski article and the Dr Curry thoughts are in a different group to the Establishment because they have a different understanding of uncertainty. It would be surprising to me to hear from any committed warmist who understands even a small part of the article, IMHO, many would start to read, then stop in distate. Sometimes I feel that we are evolving into 2 or more different tribes and never the twain shall meet. Geoff.
krmmtoday | September 2, 2018 at 3:34 am |
Scot Adams recently had a podcast discussing Trump’s alleged or factual untruthfulness. The upshot was that both dumb arguments and bad facts and good arguments and correct facts don’t work in persuasion for leadership.
The sweet spot for leadership being in the middle, something like good arguments and week facts.
Politics and advocacy don’t jibe well with science. Perhaps the IPPC should scrap the part for policymakers.
rhhardin | September 2, 2018 at 6:23 am |
How uncertain to appear is a persuasion problem. Some degree of uncertainty makes you most believable and it’s a matter of finding it.
Science on the other hand is based on curiosity.
dynam01 | September 2, 2018 at 8:37 am |
The most egregious attacks have been on climate science. U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accord leaves the U.S. isolated from the international community — the only U.N. member declining to participate in the accord. Climate scientists have been prevented from speaking at scientific conferences. Some are forbidden from using phrases affirming the reality and seriousness of human-induced climate change, or from speaking to the press about matters directly related to their research.
A serious current concern is the stated intention of EPA head Scott Pruitt to assemble a “Red Team-Blue Team” exercise to re-litigate all aspects of climate science. This call for a “do-over” ignores many previous assessments of climate science by highly qualified experts.
These assessments have consistently acknowledged the reality and dangers of anthropogenic climate change. By calling for a new “Red Team-Blue Team” process, Mr. Pruitt is implicitly questioning the legitimacy of all previous assessments, and seeks to foster the erroneous impression of deep uncertainty. A similar strategy was used by the tobacco industry in challenging links between smoking and cancer.
– authors include Manski
Turbulent Eddie | September 2, 2018 at 10:07 am |
Good, this is topical.
The most egregious attacks have been on climate science. U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accord leaves the U.S. isolated from the international community — the only U.N. member declining to participate in the accord.
“Attacks on science” is immediately cited in terms of policy, not science – interesting conflation.
Climate scientists have been prevented from speaking at scientific conferences. Some are forbidden from using phrases affirming the reality and seriousness of human-induced climate change, or from speaking to the press about matters directly related to their research.
When I was church going as a child, I was curious about the Affirmation of Faith. Religions affirm things, science tests things.
True scientific inquiry is happy to “do-over” – we call this reproduceable results. If the results fail to replicate, “science” is still happy, because we learn things.
These assessments have consistently acknowledged the reality and dangers of anthropogenic climate change.
I don’t think this is correct. Assessments have consistently failed to demonstrate danger. Assessments have demonstrated likely global warming, but conflating global warming with danger is most often an appeal to emotion. Weather and climate themselves are not particularly dangerous in the context of other dangers, often self inflicted, that humans encounter. Climate change is not large, so changes in these already small risks are similarly small. And there is no scientific demonstration that changes from global warming would increase rather than decrease or leave unchanged dangers from weather or climate.
JCH | September 2, 2018 at 10:27 am |
The Paris accord in a nutshell: The U.S. will finance all good governments in places like Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Syria, and North Korea among others. Signed single-handedly by President Obama. To refuse to provide that money is an act of aggression, just like stopping money for Hamas rocketry.
Ron Graf | September 2, 2018 at 11:26 pm |
One wonders why it took 3 professors to write an opinion piece for the Mercury News about Trump policies. My guess is one is an activist who wrote the article and the other two are sympathetic to the cause and lent their names to the article to give it credibility. Looking at each’s cv I am guessing the writer is the retired astronomer turned climate justice activist. Here is a web page on his climate communication seminars held for climate scientists to become more politically active. https://www.aaas.org/news/communicating-climate-change-aaas-member-ray-weymann
ristvan | September 2, 2018 at 10:23 am |
There is not much to contribute to Manski’s excellent paper. Unfortunately there is more certitude about the predictable positions of many of the commenters here.
A stale debate at best.
No need for people to abuse Manski’s work to support their nonsense, contrarian views on climate science. After all, you clearly noted Manski saying this on mainstream climate scientific forthrightly addressing uncertainty:
You disagree with Manski’s claim. But that’s your view, not Manski’s, and so Manski’s work should not be abused/misrepresented as supporting your position.
In any event, your trite comments on the IPCC have already been rebutted multiple times. For example, the IPCC’s tone tends to be more tentative and less “alarmist”, with sufficient attention paid to uncertainty, as shown in sources such as:
“Comment on “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster” by J. A. Curry and P. J. Webster”
“Guidance note for lead authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties”
“The language of denial: Text analysis reveals differences in language use between climate change proponents and skeptics”
This fits rather well with the work of John Ioannidis. His work was abused on this blog as well, in order to manufacture false doubt about climate science. Yet Ioannidis notes that the evidence (and level of certainty) on anthropogenic climate change is on par with the evidence (and level of certainty) that smoking kills people:
17:17 to 18:22 of:
“RS 174 – John Ioannidis on “What happened to Evidence-based medicine?””
http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/rs-174-john-ioannidis-on-what-happened-to-evidence-based-med.html
So Ioannidis made an apt comparison between the science on “smoking causing cancer” and the science on “humans causing climate change.” He made this comparison because he recognizes that scientific hypotheses have increasing certainty as more and more research groups test the hypothesis using different lines of evidence, methodologies, etc., and keep finding that the hypothesis passes the tests.
Thus your appeals to uncertainty are moot, as per Ioannidis’s and Manski’s points; there are simply so many consilient lines of evidence on anthropogenic climate change, on how much of the warming is anthropogenic, etc. that appealing to uncertainty to cast doubt on this, is on par with appeal to uncertainty to cast doubt on smoking having killed millions of people. The National Academy of Sciences makes much the same point as well:
“Essentially, this behaviour manifests that long-term changes are much more frequent and intense than commonly perceived and, simultaneously, that the future states are much more uncertain and unpredictable on long time horizons than implied by standard approaches. Surprisingly, however, the implications of multi-scale change have not been assimilated in geophysical sciences. A change of perspective is thus needed, in which change and uncertainty are essential parts.” https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/02626667.2013.804626
That CO2 is a greenhouse gas seems clear since I read the FAR as a relatively young engineer, hydrologist and environmental scientist. But I was much more interested in multi-decadal – guess which – flood and drought regimes in eastern and northern Australia. An environmental scientist knows enough about everything to follow the synergistic flow of ideas in a multi-disciplinary setting and apply it to solve practical social, political, economic and environmental problems. So I don’t apologize for my natural philosophy – and don’t require Atomski’s motivated peer review.
What is the balance of intrinsic and anthropogenic in the dynamic deterministic complexity of the Earth system? I think we can find a greater diversity of opinion than that.
Dimitris Koutsoyiannis – in A random walk in water – redefined deterministic and random – just two words after all – as predictable and unpredictable. Climate is unpredictable.
“Fundamental barriers to advancing weather and climate prediction on timescales from days to years, as well as longstanding systematic errors in weather and
climate models, are partly attributable to our limited understanding of and capability for simulating the complex, multiscale interactions intrinsic to atmospheric, oceanic,
and cryospheric fluid motions.” https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/2009BAMS2752.1
Days and years are the best that can be hoped for. Longer simulations project far too much chaotic – in the scientific sense – uncertainty forward to be valid science. Multi-scale, initialized, decadal models – using 1000’s of times more computing power – would be of interest.
The divide between between believers and non-believers seems starkly predictable. Pissant progressives and conservatives according to some. Jim Hunt directs me to his site – life is too short – where apparently it is nature and not nurture. Two things come to mind. What about life-cycle transitions and what has this to do with science?.
“If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain.” Winston Churchill
Somewhere in Atomski’s revolving commentary – amidst the copious conspiracy theories of sinister organisations creating uncertainty where there is none – is the 97% wiggle. Everything is known without a doubt by legions of earnest scientists. Jim Hunt finds evidence of ignorance or bad faith in scarcity of early data. A problem not confined to the HadCRU. And they all show the same thing. Vigorous decadal variability. Jiminy does a 360 with a half gainer blames me that the CO2/Temp correlation is not 93% or 0.93 or whatever the latest is – and I wouldn’t believe it if it was because I am such a denier. JCH is a sad case who imagines that LOL will convey his sneering contempt for whatever is being said. These are wiggles in defense of a collective meme set.
So certainty and uncertainty follow the political divide. This was OK for progressives while Emperor Mosh ruled – they could sweep uncertainty under the carpet and the public didn’t need to know. There’s no more cover now the Uncertainty Monster is in charge.
Scott Koontz | September 3, 2018 at 9:07 am |
A random walk on water is interesting for the cherry picks, but the water is still going downstream. The river may meander, but it will not suddenly turn right and head up the hillside because of randomness.
Summer will be warmer than winter in the northern hemisphere, no computing power necessary. Initial conditions don’t apply as much as you think, and if they did the decadal trend would still be clear even if you could try something like add more water vapor one day. Larger trends gobble the smaller ones.
No matter how much chaos or uncertainly you demonstrate, the larger trends define the boundaries. Seasons trounce the small eddies. Climate is reasonably predictable within the scope of the issue of a warming earth, but if you’re looking for Earth’s average temp next July 20 in NYC, then you’re going to feel more comfortable on Heller or Watts’ site.
Is the earth warming? Yes. Is CO2 the largest forcing? Yes. Do we know what the average temperature for 2028 will be? No, but it will be warmer and we will still wish we had done more about CO2.
Koutsoyiannis is cherry picking? Koontz is wandering in the wilderness with his dog collecting aphorisms . And the answer is no – the golden summer is not necessarily warmer than winters that follow, the energy budget changes far more with ocean and atmospheric circulation than with CO2, the Earth system is characterized by abrupt and wild shifts and climate is not predictable. What they should do is broaden their horizons but that is not happening.
And I have several peer reviewed links just in this post.
Scott Koontz | September 3, 2018 at 11:39 am |
“Koutsoyiannis is cherry picking?” No, why would he think he was? You were cherry picking, or more to the point using research on one topic and misapplying it to another.
See that last sentence? That’s yours! You are pretending that there are no possible trends in dynamic systems. That is simply not true, and there are many examples of this.
Why are you still wandering in the woods with your dog? Has nothing to do with the fact that a dynamic system can still have trends, and you choose to pretend that those overarching trends do not exist.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but you think that climate is so unpredictable that the past century of warming is a random result of a complex system, and not the work of forcings like CO2. That we could have been cooling just as easily.
You’re still not getting how complex systems can have deterministic properties.
And summers are always warmer than winters that follow in the timeframe we are discussing. You Gish Galloped the scale of the issue.
“In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible states by the generation of (perturbed physics) ensembles of model solutions. This reduces climate change to the discernment of significant differences in the statistics of such ensembles. The generation of such model ensembles will require the dedication of greatly increased computer resources and the application of new methods of model diagnosis. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive, but such statistical information is essential.” IPCC 2001
“In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible. The most we can expect to achieve is the prediction of the probability distribution of the system�s future possible states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. This reduces climate change to the discernment of significant differences in the statistics of such ensembles. The generation of such model ensembles will require the dedication of greatly increased computer resources and the application of new methods of model diagnosis. Addressing adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally intensive, but such statistical information is essential.” Julia Slingo and Tim Palmer
“Sensitive dependence and structural instability are humbling twin properties for chaotic dynamical systems, indicating limits about which kinds of questions are theoretically answerable. They echo other famous limitations on scientist’s expectations, namely the undecidability of some propositions within axiomatic mathematical systems (Gödel’s theorem) and the uncomputability of some algorithms due to excessive size of the calculation (see ref. 26).” James McWilliams
The problem is their narrow focus and motivated bias that traps them in the shallow end of the geophysics pool,
“Lorenz was able to show that even for a simple set of nonlinear equations (1.1), the evolution of the solution could be changed by minute perturbations to the initial conditions, in other words, beyond a certain forecast lead time, there is no longer a single, deterministic solution and hence all forecasts must be treated as probabilistic. The fractionally dimensioned space occupied by the trajectories of the solutions of these nonlinear equations became known as the Lorenz attractor (figure 1), which suggests that nonlinear systems, such as the atmosphere, may exhibit regime-like structures that are, although fully deterministic, subject to abrupt and seemingly random change.” The Slingo and Palmer quote.
Deterministic dynamic complexity is the fundamental mode of operation of the Earth system. The US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) defined abrupt climate change as a new climate paradigm as long ago as 2002. A paradigm in the scientific sense is a theory that explains observations. A new science paradigm is one that better explains data – in this case climate data – than the old theory. The new theory says that climate change occurs as discrete jumps in the system. Climate is more like a kaleidoscope – shake it up and a new pattern emerges – than a control knob with a linear gain.
It is only seemingly random (unpredictable in Koutsoyiannis’ terminology) as attested to by Slingo and Palmer. I have gone into detail frequently – but it is pointless with such as Koontz as he quite obviously lacks the intellectual framework to make any sense of it. But the NAS climate paradigm is the consensus.
“I have gone into detail frequently – but it is pointless with such as Koontz as he quite obviously lacks the intellectual framework to make any sense of it.”
This is what one expects from someone who studied chaos late in the game. Notice that Ellison never asked about my background, so he feels safe with his insults.
Your insults are more interesting when you realize I have a math degree and a computer science degree, from a high-ranking university, and received both more than a decade before you. I was reading chaos papers long before you knew what chaos was.
“he quite obviously lacks the intellectual framework” Let me guess: you’re a conservative.
Your modus operandi is to insult people. Carry on.
cerescokid | September 3, 2018 at 3:34 pm |
Did you ever think of getting a refund or been afflicted with buyers’s remorse.?
You and Atomskiyiyi make it so easy to ignore your intellect free comments. Skepticism never felt so right.
Well it wasn’t an insult – but do these people have no self awareness? They pootle about disparaging everyone and everything and take offence when they are not taken at their own estimation.
He knows everything about chaos apart from that it is a reality, it is the fundamental mode of geophysics and it is a common and powerful paradigm in climate science.
“The climate system has jumped from one mode of operation to another in the past. We are trying to understand how the earth’s climate system is engineered, so we can understand what it takes to trigger mode switches. Until we do, we cannot make good predictions about future climate change… Over the last several hundred thousand years, climate change has come mainly in discrete jumps that appear to be related to changes in the mode of thermohaline circulation.” Wally Broecker
Facile analogies about dogs and fans inform my thoughts on Scott’s capacities.
Did you actually pay to use this site? I think you need to get your money back. Why would I have buyer’s remorse?
Hard to know what is an insult from you guys. You seem to insult yourselves quite often.
aporiac1960 | September 3, 2018 at 5:27 pm |
@Scott Koontz
“from a high-ranking university”
After having attended several it was impossible not to conclude that “high ranking university” defines a collective of the dumbest people on the planet alongside the smartest. It seems you did not figure this out, which places you in the former category.
This thread seems to have become a venue for hyperbolic alarmism, which is useful to see in its naked form. Speaking of which, the Atlantic has a new piece on what they consider lack of alarmist political progress in Australia and Canada.
This prediction strikes me as unbelievably extreme, but apparently they really believe it: “Simply put: This kind of failure, writ large, would devastate Earth in the century to come. The world would blow its stated goal of limiting atmospheric temperature rise. Heat waves might regularly last for six punishing weeks, sea levels could soar by feet in a few short decades, and certain fragile ecosystems—like the delicate Arctic permafrost or the kaleidoscopic plenty of coral reefs would disappear from the planet entirely.”
“Devastate Earth”!
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/08/a-global-rightward-shift-on-climate-change/568684/
I feel sorry for people who believe this stuff, but I also consider them to be dangerous. These are truly radical beliefs, which might justify all sorts of extreme behavior. Devastate Earth?
Speaking of alarmists losing political ground, I have this tidbit:
http://www.cfact.org/2018/08/30/coal-hits-the-political-fan-in-germany/
Re: “This thread seems to have become a venue for hyperbolic alarmism
[…] Speaking of alarmists losing political ground”
Let me know when you have some actual evidence for the nonsensical abuse of terms like “alarmism”. For example, the IPCC tends to under-estimate the impacts of climate change, which runs contrary to the charge of alarmism:
“Climate Change Skepticism and Denial: An Introduction
A constant refrain coming from the denial campaign is that climate scientists are “alarmists” who exaggerate the degree and threat of global warming to enhance their status, funding, and influence with policy makers. The contribution by William Freudenburg and Violetta Muselli provides an insightful empirical test of this charge and finds it to lack support. […] They then present evidence that IPCC assessments have in fact understated the degree of subsequently reported climate disruption, supporting their argument.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-ipcc-underestimated-climate-change/
And this is some of the relevant supporting research on this point:
“Reexamining Climate Change Debates: Scientific Disagreement or Scientific Certainty Argumentation Methods (SCAMs)?”
“Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama?”
“Global warming estimates, media expectations, and the asymmetry of scientific challenge”
Furthermore, the IPCC’s tone tends to be more tentative and less “alarmist”, with sufficient attention paid to uncertainty:
The IPCC got it wrong dammit. It’s much worse than they thought says the rigorous research of the Marxist sociology collective @wgaf…
Jim Hunr reckons it’s ugly photos. You can show ugly photos to me all day long. I’m not scared. This is what I see in the mirror every morning.
This is the sort of “disgusting image” the psychoboffins had in mind:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27437799
Can you by any chance provide us with a selfie along similar lines?
Do they imagine I give a rat’s arse about their backgrounds? Bizarre. As I said they pootle about portraying those not in the club as fools and troglodyte contrarions – and instruct us all in the right way of thinking on this certain and eternal science. Again and again usually. I tell Scott he doesn’t know – quite obviously – what he is talking about and there is this meltdown in which his background somehow matters. And Banton is the feather duster bringing up a discombobulated rear.
It amazes me what gets through moderation and what doesn’t. I have a comment with two quotes from peer reviewed science – and nothing else – in moderation – and this long winded rant from Banton filled exclusively with nasty invective gets through. I’m content to wait for it to disappear and can only encourage Banton to do the same.
Oh by the way here’s the quote in context.
https://judithcurry.com/2018/08/25/week-in-review-science-edition-85/#comment-879426
pmhinsc | September 2, 2018 at 7:01 pm |
AtomsksSanakan: Let me know when you have some actual evidence for the nonsensical abuse of terms like “alarmism”. For example, the IPCC tends to under-estimate the impacts of climate change, which runs contrary to the charge of alarmism:
Actually, the burden of proof is on those who claim “the IPCC tends to under-estimate the impact of climate change.” Other than computer programs, there is no evidence of alarming climate change; particularly caused by anthropogenic CO2. Prophets of doom have always been with us and the only difference between the past and today is the computer which allows almost instantaneously misapplication of scientific principles. Good luck with that!
Re: “Actually, the burden of proof is on those who claim “the IPCC tends to under-estimate the impact of climate change.””
The evidence was cited:
You just willfully ignore it. Do better.
The burden of proof falls on these making alarmist claims. Thirty years should have been ample time to come up with something other than handwaving, argumentation, and unsubstantiated claims, yet that is all you offer. Where is the data, where is the proof: it is not in the source you referenced.
It’s hard to prove the future. What do you suggest?
You read Atomski’s links? Do better.
The same as always Jiminy. You only need to ask.
“The new framework now emerging will succeed to the degree to which it prioritizes agreements that promise near-term economic, geopolitical, and environmental benefits to political economies around the world, while simultaneously reducing climate forcings, developing clean and affordable energy technologies, and improving societal resilience to climate impacts.”
https://thebreakthrough.org/archive/climate_pragmatism_innovation
That 2011 article was ahead of Paris and sounds a lot like Paris. Why go back to a 2011 prediction? Did you approve of that, and therefore do you approve of Paris?
So Jiminy has said before. It is not the case that the Paris COP is anything like these series of papers that started with the LSE in 2009. This is not what the UNFCCC had in mind.
“The developing world is on a path to a high energy fossil future regardless of a “commitment” to the notion that it is a good idea to help it along. It is simply the affordable path and as such the only viable path out of poverty.
The developed world is already high energy and despite much weeping and gnashing of teeth, is projected to continue burning more fossil fuels at current rates into the foreseeable future. This highlights the patently obvious but constantly ignored nature of the problem.
To paraphrase James Carville “Its the economics, stupid.”
No matter if the problem is seen as climate change, energy security, resource depletion or poverty, the real problem is the economics. Energy is just too big a part of the world economy to triple its cost.
The only viable solution is clean sustainable energy at lower cost than fossil fuel energy.
The policy consensus is no such present or near future low cost technology exists. In its “Beyond Boom and Bust” report, this institute advocated better R&D focused energy policy to develop such technologies. Subsequently, no attempt has been made to advocate for any energy other than nuclear. This is inconsistent and brings motives into question. High minded concerns for the developing world prompt similar concerns.
The consensus that there is no possible low cost energy alternative is a self fulfilling prophecy if it leads to no attempt to search for such a solution.” https://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/programs/energy-and-climate/our-high-energy-planet
RIE, I don’t know if you’re quoting that because you disagree with it, but it all looks like a valid viewpoint to me. They know things need to be done and the technology is hard, but we should try anyway. I subscribe to all that.
I quote it because I disagree? Is this another level of oddness?
I have discussed endlessly the role of greenhouse gases as a control variable in a deterministic dynamically complex system. Like lots. But things get lost in translation by Jiminy – almost every comment. I feel that it is deliberate – or else inordinately careless. Whenever he tells me what I believe it is untrustworthy.
But I am glad he is in favor or unfettered access to fossil fuels for economic growth.
“unfettered access” is not what they say, but “reducing climate forcings” is. Maybe you misread something or quoted the wrong thing.
It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that Our High Energy Planet advocates for the cheapest energy source – yet Jiminy does it.
“In the Moyhu NCEP/NCAR index, the monthly reanalysis anomaly average fell from 0.261°C in July to 0.194°C in August, 2018. This is a slightly greater drop than the previous month’s rise, and so makes August the coldest month since July 2015 in this surface record. In the lower troposphere, UAH also fell by a little more, 0.13°C, than the previous month’s rise.”
Thanks, Nick. I do not use your well laid out site often enough. But we need a much bigger drop over the next 5 years to restore the pause and reduce ECS range,
Keep working on it please.
This is like day trading, and you’re shorting the temperature stock *monthly* and applauding when a warm month follows an even warmer month, thus… cooling!
“But we need a much bigger drop over the next 5 years to restore the pause and reduce ECS range,”
The days of pause-watching are over, trounced by the obvious decadal trend, which should have put the “we’re about to cool, just wait for it” theories to rest. Send global temp graphs to high school students and ask 1) is the trend up or down, 2) can you find a “pause” or two and do they seem to have reversed the trend, and 3) do you think this trend is about to turn soon?
Every five years you “need” an even bigger drop to support your gut feelings. Of course you need a bigger drop because the trend is obvious. “You’re going to need a bigger boat.”
Jim Hunt asked what vigorous decadal variability would that be then. That would be 1944 to 1976, 1977 to 1998 and period since for instance. Each period has its own different temperature trajectory – but it never figures in the collective memes. And it is not just shuffling energy around the system. This can be seen easily enough in mainstream science – but somehow it just doesn’t sink in.
angech | September 3, 2018 at 10:38 am |
There are bulls and bears, the market is bearish at the moment. There is a breakout due, it seems to be on the upside for arctic ice. There are fundamentals like 60 year cycles for some. Random chaotic walks or black swans.
I have been day trading with JCH for the last 3 years, he is up heaps. At the moment I have a steady average 0.4 C monthly drop this year and he is struggling to cover his position.
I fully expect another 2- 3 months of small drops, hope for a La Niña and a big party with champagne at Xmas if that happens.
angech – Perhaps we might arrange a festive Arctic bet around a bottle of bubbly?
Or better yet, a Xmas hamper to a good cause?
The ENSO mean in a deep perspective suggests a return to more Nina like conditions. Theory and modelling suggest a linkage from solar UV production to polar surface pressures and ocean gyres.
Could this have commenced with the 21st century plateau that started with the 1998/2001 climate shift? Another shift is due in this decade.
“I fully expect another 2- 3 months of small drops”
Gee, monthly drops. Sounds exciting. I’ve won every decadal bet I’ve made, but you can pretend that single months or even years are the concern.
Jim, you are a gentleman.
Scott, big journeys start with small steps.
I would be extremely worried if large changes were commonplace, as would any thinking person.
So I will take small any day.
But let us look at the Arctic.
On a day 2 weeks ahead of the usual minimum.
With a faster than average melting rate (extent not volume) in August.
With recent waves and hurricanes troubling the ice pack and warmer condions in large areas.
Yet it may be starting to refresh early and might end up only 8th lowest in the last 40 years.
Feedback from that will give a lead to slightly lower global temps in September.
Small steps .
What’s not to like.
I wish I had not commented as any prediction tends to follow Neven’s and WUWT’s rule on arctic ice comments. Massive egg on face.
Re: “The days of pause-watching are over, trounced by the obvious decadal trend”
“Given the results of this nuanced analysis, we conclude that claims that the global mean temperature has not changed in recent decades are not supported by evidence. In addition, our nuanced analysis gives much needed rigor to the claim that using 1998 as a reference year amounts to “cherry picking” [Leber, 2014, Stover, 2014], see also Supplemental Section for detailed discussions).”
Click to access 2015-16.pdf
“We find that the public discussion of time intervals within the range 1998–2014 as somehow unusual or unexpected, as indicated by terms like ‘hiatus’, ‘pause’ and ‘slowdown’, has no support in rigorous study of the temperature data.”
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825/meta
“Satellite temperature measurements do not support the recent claim of a “leveling off of warming” over the past two decades.”
Geoff Sherrington | September 2, 2018 at 11:15 pm |
Comments here would be helped if writers refreshed the definitions of various classes of uncertainty, be they those given by Dr Curry in earlier threads, or others.
One cannot comment on overall system uncertainty in the same breath as measurement uncertainty, for example. More, the overall uncertainty is a type of combination of the sub types, but few commenters seem to have any idea of how the combination is performed, let alone formal concepts like the propagation of errors.
The IPCC in AR5 used alarming methodology by departing from mathematical combinations and introducing personal subjective estimates by experts. Atomwhatever quotes Manski within approval, “IPCC tends to under-estimate the effects of climate change”. In realty, one cannot make a valid comment like this, because it is dependent on the “truth” of the estimates. In this case, truth went out of the window years ago when the customary IPCC methodology revealed little understanding of how to properly observe, measure and express uncertainty. Much published work treats uncertainty at about high school level, leading to numerous past criticisms like not knowing the differences between accuracy and precision. And that is just for the subset of measurement uncertainty.
It is therefore futile and improper to present to the public, conclusions that for example the IPCC under-estimates uncertainty. The IPCC demonstrated gross ignorance when it introduced the expert circle jerk as a way to treat uncertainty. (“Trust me, I am from government and I am here to help you.”)
In summary, if the IPCC and other promoters of global warming had used formal, proper estimates of uncertainty from the beginning, global warming would have never got off the ground. Its destruction was guaranteed by its own data and its real uncertainty. Evidence for this comes from the near-complete absence of references in scientific papers to formal, established estimates of errors and uncertainties.
While these proper, formal methods are well documented and we’ll known by hard scientists, sometimes even legally required to be used, they have been almost completely ignored, in favour of subjective hubris. Geoff
It’s not uncertainty per se, but it is the concept of threats and risks, which is probabilities of bad things happening. For example climate change increases threats and risks, and these are usually stated. For example, wildfires, droughts, floods, surges, storms, diseases, pestilence, heatwaves, ecosystem loss, etc. I think you find a lot of this written about together with the detection of changes and trends that are already occurring in all these directions even under only 1 degree of global warming. IPCC WG2 is devoted to reviewing these studies.
Geoff Sherrington | September 3, 2018 at 12:35 am |
I just wrote that it is about about uncertainty per se and your response is to say that it is not. What can your response possibly add to the debate? Try thinking about what I wrote, rather than trying to dismiss it.
Also, uncertainty is not just about “bad things happening”. It is also about good things happening, or less restricted, about things happening.
You claim that “climate change increases threats and risks, and these are usually stated. For example, wildfires, droughts, floods, surges, storms, diseases, pestilence, heatwaves, ecosystem loss, etc. ”
You have no idea about the topic. There is next to no evidence from the past that most of these have become worse, some evidence that some have improved. If past trends are towards improvement, how on earth do project project future disaster? Do you think you can change weather?
I am pointing you to WG2 which addresses threats and risks, and yes there may be some benefits in there too. Uncertainty is too non-specific for anyone to discuss. You have to apply it to something. Each risk has its own weather parameters, and shifting probabilities also change the risks.
The largest uncertainty factor between now and 2100 is emissions. It could be anywhere from 1000 GtCO2 to 10000 GtCO2, worth several degrees of warming. Other uncertainties are small by comparison.
Epistemic uncertainty – ‘relating to knowledge or to the degree of its validation’.
““Wunsch stressed that “very little is actually proven in this subject” and possible policy solutions are beyond the reach of science.
“It’s an extraordinarily complicated social, economic, political and scientific problem that we’re now reducing to sound bites,” Wunsch said.” https://www.cnbc.com/id/19090539
The delusion that there is not immense epistemic uncertainty in understanding of the climate system is wildly improbable but there it is.
You see what I did there. Skeptics want to talk in terms of uncertainties, but when you shift that to risks and threats they get uncomfortable because then it is like arguing on away territory for them to even recognize such things. It’s all in the framing of the discussion.
Risk is the product probabilities and consequences – and none of that is well known. What is certain is that extremes get more extreme the further back in time any Earth subsystem is examined. Tacking this with carbon taxes is misguided. Building of societal resilience with energy and production innovation and wealth creation is the rational course.
Obviously building for resilience has to account for climate change too. Otherwise you are just mitigating against repeats of past events. There’s a recognition of rapidly changing conditions needed to do that properly, and that the change depends on how much burning of fossil fuels we do in this century. Any less is doomed to failure.
Past extremes – including in hydrology – were much greater than those seen in the 20th century. CO2 is a control variable in a complex and dynamic system. But for him to believe that there is any handle on this is complete and motivated nonsense.
The future of atmospheric CO2 depends on innovation in the land use sector and technology. CO2 is a tertiary consideration at best. If faced with a choice of expanding emissions – and that is happening anyway – or taxes give me carbon dioxide or death. Beats dying of boredom from Jiminy.
Re: “In summary, if the IPCC and other promoters of global warming had used formal, proper estimates of uncertainty from the beginning, global warming would have never got off the ground. Its destruction was guaranteed by its own data and its real uncertainty. Evidence for this comes from the near-complete absence of references in scientific papers to formal, established estimates of errors and uncertainties.”
Your ignorance of the scientific literature (while you make ridiculous claims regarding it) is amazing. Your assigned reading is below, to get you started on remedying your lack of knowledge:
“Further exploring and quantifying uncertainties for Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Version 4 (v4)”
“A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of sea surface temperature”
“Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique”
“The reliability of global and hemispheric surface temperature records”
“How accurately do we know the temperature of the surface of the earth?”
“Assessing the value of Microwave Sounding Unit–radiosonde comparisons in ascertaining errors in climate data records of tropospheric temperatures”
Geoff Sherrington | September 4, 2018 at 8:34 pm |
You bring up 6 papers that deal with uncertainty.
My claim was about a near-complete absence of papers dealing properly with uncertainty. I have read thousands of climate papers. Six in thousands fits the bill of near complete absence.
Why don’t you count the number of papers that fail the test? Then you might be able to propose useful remediation rather than the silly excuses for incompetent climate authors that you just gave. Geoff
Re: “My claim was about a near-complete absence of papers dealing properly with uncertainty.”
And you haven’t provided a shred of evidence for your claim. In contrast, I was easily able to cite several papers I’d read covering the topic, and that wasn’t even close to all the papers on the topic.
Next time, when you make a claim, actually have some evidence to back it up.
Geoff Sherrington can swim or sink.
To avoid cluttering up posts with needless repetitious.
Dr Curry, thank you for bringing this essay to our attention.
“Extension of this analysis to the entire 20th century as shown in Figure 1 (bottom) reveals three climate shifts marked by breaks in the temperature trend with respect to time, superimposed upon an overall warming presumably due to increasing greenhouse gasses. Global mean temperature decreased prior to World War I, increased during the 1920s and 1930s, decreased from the 1940s to 1976/77, and as noted above increased from that point to the end of the century. Insofar as the global mean temperature is controlled by the net top‐of‐the‐atmosphere radiative budget [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007], such breaks in temperature trends imply discontinuities in that budget. Such discontinuities are difficult to reconcile with the presumed smooth evolution of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol radiative forcing with respect to time [Hansen et al., 2005]. This suggests that an internal reorganization of the climate system may underlie such shifts [Zhang et al., 2007].” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL037022
So when the discussion turns to these other geophysics it just doesn’t penetrate. Why is that? This is where all the wonder is.
Salvatore del Prete | September 3, 2018 at 10:06 am |
Robert this time is different because of the weakening solar/geo magnetic fields which were non players back then.
I am supposed to throw up my hands and say yes of course because you have so very little data and no goephysical theory?
Here is some info Robert and I will follow up with a few more.
Theodore White
The ‘mechanism’ Dave Burton is electromagnetic. All seismic activity such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are triggered by external pressures being forced on the Earth’s magnetic field.
The stress that is put on Earth’s magnetic field begins at the ionosphere, which can be observed by the appearance of luminous phenomena very close to regions showing tectonic stress, seismic activity or soon-to-be volcanic eruptions.
The connection between prolonged minimum and maximum solar phases to large magnitude earthquakes and increased volcanic eruptions is supported by overwhelming scientific evidence that is easily found online.
There is strong statistical data which shows powerful correlations between major volcanic activity and numerous earthquakes of 8.0 magnitude or more on Richter scale to the Sun’s Grand Minimum states.
Over the last several decades scientific papers began to appear that clearly show correlations between galactic cosmic ray and low solar activity with a rise of destructive geological events like earthquakes & volcanic eruptions.
This has been supported by statistical evidence that extend back centuries.
A 1967 study published by the Earth & Planetary Science Letters discovered that solar activity plays a significant role in the triggering of earthquakes.
Then, In 1998 a scientist from the Beijing Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Science, also discovered a correlation between low solar activity and earthquakes.
Additional research by The Space & Science Research Center found direct correlation between solar activity and the largest earthquakes and volcanic eruptions within the continental United States and other regions around the world.
The study examined data of volcanic activity between 1650 – 2009 along with earthquake activity between 1700 – 2009 while utilizing solar activity data.
The findings of study said that there was very strong correlation between solar activity and the largest seismic and volcanic events – worldwide.
The correlation for volcanic activity was larger than 80 percent and 100% for the greatest magnitude earthquakes measured with Solar activity lows.
Moreover, the findings concluded that there was proof of a strong correlations between global volcanic activity among the largest of classes of eruptions and solar activity lows; with 80.6% occurrence of large scale global volcanic eruptions taking place during the Sun’s minimums and 87.5% occurring for the very largest volcanic eruptions during times of major solar minimums.
We are entering such a period of a Grand Solar Minimum with the start of solar cycle #25 – due to begin anytime between now and the year 2020.
When I forecasted back in 2006 that the world would enter global cooling just before the Sun entered its Grand Minimum and would see an ‘increase in large magnitude earthquakes and numerous volcanic eruptions, some conventional scientists derided me by saying that there was no physical mechanism.
This, despite the fact that I named that mechanism – which is electromagnetic and penetration of galactic cosmic rays into our solar system.
Then, two years later, in 2008, NASA announced that a close link between electrical disturbances on the edge of our atmosphere and impending earthquakes on the ground below has been found.
The finding fell into agreement with additional scientific studies performed by other space research institutes.
For example, orbiting satellites above the Earth picked up disturbances that were 100 to 600 kilometers above regions that have later been hit by earthquakes.
Fluctuation in the density of electrons and other electrically-charged particles in the Earth’s ionosphere have been observed, and huge signals have been detected many times before large magnitude earthquakes struck.
These are climatic events which feature seismic activity connected to atmospheric disturbances caused by celestial bodies and the Sun’s quiescent phase, which is underway.
During times when the Earth’s axis rotation slows, in concert with the Sun’s minimum output and weakened heliosphere allows cosmic rays to enter our solar system and straight into the Earth’s atmosphere.
Planetary modulation relative to the Earth and the condition of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) of outer space where our planet lives and transits – all play significant roles.
The fluxes of cosmic and solar radiation charges the Earth’s ionosphere.
The result means a rise in anomalies of the Earth’s geomagnetic field which produces Foucault currents – also called ‘Eddy Currents.’
Eddy currents are essentially loops of electrical currents that are induced within conductors by a changing magnetic field in the conductor. This is due to Faraday’s law of induction.
Anyway, eddy currents flow in closed loops within conductors, in planes that are perpendicular to the magnetic field.
The eddy current heats the rocks inside faults as the shear resistant intensity and static friction limit of the rocks decrease.
This is the physical mechanism that trigger earthquakes and volcanic eruption, but it is an ‘effect’ of what is happening where the Earth lives – and that is in outer space.
You see, during eras of solar minimums high energy cosmic radiation can and does penetrate deep below the Earth’s surface.
It is the reason why most earthquakes that occur during solar minimum are deep earthquakes.
The stress on the Earth’s Magnetosphere during solar minimum is higher because the Sun’s Heliosphere is weaker which allows the high-energy charged particles of cosmic rays to flood into our solar system.
For instance, on average, the flux of cosmic rays is 20 percent or more – higher during solar minimums.
Over the last 250 years consider the fact that these major volcanic eruptions took place during strong solar minimum and Grand Minimums:
*Grimvotn (Iceland) 1783/84 (14 km3)
*Tambora (Indonesia) 1810 (150 km3)
*Krakatoa 1883 (5.0 km3)
*Santa Maria (Guatemala) 1902 (4.8 km3)
*Novarupta (Alaska) 1912 (3.4 km3)
Correlations are inevitably suspect – and – like Jiminy’s correlation – inevitably merely eyeballed in.
Click to access Solar_Changes_and_the_Climate.pdf
Some more Robert.
I have read that long ago. Life is too short to read it again.
Short term solar data is of limited interest – but whatever is at work it is not TSI changes. With something more subtle you would need more subtle links to the Earth system. Until then any correspondence may be random. You can throw around words but it means sfa.
My working theory is the gyre hypothesis. Multi-decadal variability in the Pacific is defined as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (e.g. Folland et al,2002, Meinke et al, 2005, Parker et al, 2007, Power et al, 1999) – a proliferation of oscillations it seems. The latest Pacific Ocean climate shift in 1998/2001 is linked to increased flow in the north (Di Lorenzo et al, 2008) and the south (Roemmich et al, 2007, Qiu, Bo et al 2006)Pacific Ocean gyres. Roemmich et al (2007) suggest that mid-latitude gyres in all of the oceans are influenced by decadal variability in the Southern and Northern Annular Modes (SAM and NAM respectively) as wind driven currents in baroclinic oceans (Sverdrup, 1947).
There is a growing literature on the potential for stratospheric influences on climate (e.g. Matthes et al 2006, Gray et al 2010, Lockwood et al 2010, Scaife et al 2012) due to warming of stratospheric ozone by solar UV emissions. “Models incorporating stratospheric layers – despite differing greatly in their formulation of fundamental processes such as atmosphere-ocean coupling, clouds or gravity wave drag – show consistent responses in the troposphere.” Top down modulation of SAM and NAM by solar UV has the potential to explain otherwise little understood variability at decadal to much longer scales in ENSO.
ordvic | September 3, 2018 at 10:08 am |
Incredible certitude:
The Titanic is unsinkable!
One of my favorite unremarked uncertainties is future anthropic ocean water usage (primarily desalination). If my BOE math is right, 1 cm of water level rise is 500 sq km x 1 = 5T cc = 5B liters. That appear to be roughly the daily capacity of currently operating desalination across the Persian Gulf. If we suppose that a single day’s capacity ends up being permanently shifted out of the ocean every time new desalination capacity comes online (this is not much more than a guess, mind you), it is not hard to imagine a world of 2118 in which the desalination needs of ~12B people living at the equivalent of median Americans today (100 gallons per day) might result in concern over falling sea levels (supposing 9 billion of them need new desalination sources, at one day’s storage that appears to lower sea levels by 681 centimeters, which is about twice the high IPCC estimates for sea level rise).
Michael Kelly | September 3, 2018 at 8:00 pm |
The United States consumes about 500 billion gallons (or 1.9 billion cubic meters) of fresh water per day. There are 360 trillion square meters of ocean on Earth. Every day, in your scenario, the US would suck down 5.3E-06 meters of sea level, or 1.9 millimeters per year. Current estimates of sea level rise rate are about 3 millimeters a year, so this would have an effect IF none of the water returned to the oceans. But all of it would.
If we could desalinate that much water, and recover the solids, they would yield 5,700 kg of uranium, and more specifically, 40 kg of U-235, per day. When fissioned, that would release about 1.2E18 J per year. Humanity consumes 5.7E20 J per year. So while the U-235 recovered would add a paltry 0.2% to our energy supply, it might be enough to run the desalination process.
talldave2 | September 4, 2018 at 11:21 am |
Michael — right, my assumption is 100% of the water pumped goes back in the ocean, except for “one day’s storage” when the facility comes online (one day’s storage seems to be typical of water towers today). So may argument is that by 2118 we’ll probably need so much desalination capacity that that one day’s storage will lower sea levels beyond what IPCC is currently estimating as the high range of likely sea level rise. That ignores possibilities like groundwater replenishment efforts, of course.
Eventually the thorium may also be cost-effective to recover, and AEC estimates there are many thousands of years’ worth of fuel there.
talldave2 | September 4, 2018 at 12:23 pm |
Also, I think your “usage number” includes things like hydroelectric usage that aren’t really relevant. My estimate was an order of magnitude smaller because I assumed 100 gallons per person.
Actually though I see I should have used 500T cc, forgot there are a million sq meters in a sq kilometer. So probably closer to 1 cm sea level drop per billion people, or perhaps about 9cm.
As vtg pointed out, I also did the conversion from sq m to sq cm wrong, so the result is probably too small to be interesting, barring some enormous increase in storage per person.
scotts4sf | September 5, 2018 at 7:58 pm |
Cost too much in energy usage and $s unless we get carbon nanotubes working. Right now they are too fragile and difficult to manufacture in big sheets for reverse osmosis.
aaron | September 7, 2018 at 9:37 am |
My favorite is the increasing transport of water from ocean to land (especially since IR favors evaporation vs SW) and the increasing capacity for land and the biosphere to retain water. This will mitigate sea level rise, I think very significantly.
Big deal recently was that satellite (gravimetric?) measurement of water on earth did not match up with models. There was much more water in aquifers than calcs based on water usage, river flows, precip, etc. predict.
Water is not behaving as expected. Sea levels are not rising as expected or where expected.
verytallguy | September 7, 2018 at 10:04 am |
State of the art on sea level budget:
t the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr−1(1σ). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining individual mass contributions to sea level.
Click to access essd-10-1551-2018.pdf
See section 2.7 for Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS)
Sorry, I do notice in the original I should have said: “1 cm of water level rise is 500M sq km x 1 cm = 5T cc = 5B liters.” Most estimates of the ocean’s surface seem to be around 360M, as you say, so 500 is a bit conservative, but then there’s a ton of uncertainty in the usage estimates anyway.
verytallguy | September 4, 2018 at 12:21 pm |
Your estimate is, I think, 6 orders of magnitude out.
The current estimate of sea level drop due to water storage on land is c. 1.5mm, caused by the storage of 5,000 cubic kilometers of water.
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/gornitz_06/
I think you used square km where you should have used square metres.
Thanks vtg, I eventually noticed that above. Sea area seems to be 5 quadrillion cm sq (500M sq km*1M m per k*10,000 cm per m), so 1 cm of rise is 5 quadrillion cc.
So, not actually very interesting.
I think if you put the numbers in correctly even your 9cm estimate above is still several orders of magnitude too high.
Yep, I was five orders off. Initially I thought it was 3 (km to m) but it was also another 2 for m to cm.
So we’d probably have to replenish groundwater or pump it into Antarctica for the anthropic effect to be interesting.
for the sake of completeness….
usage: 3785 cc per gallon * 100 gallon per person * 1 billion people = 3.78E+14 cc
1 cm sea level rise: 3.6 E+8 KM^2 = 3.6E+14 m^2 = 3.6E+18 cm sq = 3.6E+18 cc
Robert your theory(gyre hypothesis ) is part of the puzzle. he problem is how does it happen? Is it random or externally driven?
My theory is weakening magnetic fields.
“However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance has been linked to changes in surface pressure that resemble the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations (AO/NAO)8,9,10 and studies of both the 11-year solar cycle11,12 and centennial timescales13 suggest the potential for larger regional effects. The mechanism for these changes is via a stratospheric pathway, a so-called ‘top-down’ mechanism, and involves altered heating of the stratosphere by solar ultraviolet irradiance. Anomalous temperatures in the region of the tropical stratopause give rise to changes in the subtropical stratospheric winds, in geostrophic balance with the modified equator-to-pole temperature gradient. This signal then propagates poleward and downward and is amplified by altered planetary wave activity8 before being communicated throughout the depth of the troposphere in the Pacific and Atlantic basins14.” https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535
The figure shows global “wind and gyre circulation changes hypothesized to be associated with multidecadal (a) warm and (b) cool phases of the North and South Hemispheres. White arrows indicate regions of enhanced wind and black arrows indicate areas of enhanced gyre circulation. The blue patches indicate the sinking waters in the North Atlantic. The zonal warm phase occurred from the 1910s to 1940s and 1970s to 1990s and is characteristic of strong westerly winds in the northern and southern hemisphere. North Pacific and North Atlantic subarctic gyre circulations enhance with sinking waters associated with the northern North Atlantic winter. In the Atlantic subtropical gyre circulations also enhance. Some surface waters travel from the Indian Ocean to the south Atlantic and join the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic. The meridional cool phase occurring from the 1940s to 1970s and 1990s to present consists of equatorward winds over the continents and poleward winds over the subarctic and sub-antarctic oceans, resulting as Rossby wave formations. Intensified circulation in subtropical gyre systems enhances upwelling and productivity in the California and Peru systems. Strengthened easterly trade winds increase equatorial current circulation in the Pacific. The background global chlorophyll is from Yoder et al.” http://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/3/4/833/htm
We MUST include solar/geomagnetic field strength when making predictions
By Salvatore Del Prete
Many do not seem to understand that the models do not incorporate the strengths of the solar/geomagnetic fields when making predictions, so here are my own predictions.
Earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher have increased more than 25% over the last few weeks. The latest geomagnetic storm (K7) may spur ) even more activity.
I’m waiting for THE ! volcanic eruption.
I said 2018 (the only one) would be a transitional year. Sure enough, global temperatures are down and overall oceanic sea surface temperatures are down.
They are going to continue down.
El Nino: Happy that is what the models are this year and were last year.
Forget Hurricanes/Tornadoes moving forward from here. They will continue trending down on a global basis.
Getting back to the models/analogs: The more extreme either way the solar/geomagnetic fields may be (in this case weakening), the more off those (inadequate) tools will be.
My simple theory is: Very weak solar/geomagnetic fields equate to lower overall global temperatures due to lower overall oceanic sea surface temperatures (less UV/NEAR UV light) and a slight uptick in albedo. The uptick will be due to an increase in major geological activity and an increase in global cloud/snow coverage tied to an increase in galactic cosmic rays. Those increases, in turn, will be in response to very weak magnetic fields.
In addition, there are threshold levels of magnetic weakness out there that could result in a major, as opposed to a slight, climatic shift. If one looks at the historical climatic record/ice core data, major/abrupt climatic changes show up more often than not.
Something is causing it, and it is not the slow gradual change of the ocean’s heat content. Besides, ocean heat content does not matter: it is the surface oceanic temperatures that matter when it comes to the climate and they can change fast.
In closing I say the so called AGW ended in late 2017.
None of the mainstream buy into this, even the ones who do not believe in AGW. They are all stuck and believe in their inadequate models, which are useless in this environment . Even Joe Bastardi, a non-believer in AGW, cannot get into this.
This is why this site (iceagenow.info) is so important, because it brings points of view similar to what I expressed and think is correct.
Salvatore Del Prete is publisher of https://climatebusters.org/
Nope, the Roman and Medieval Warm periods lasted longer than this. This warm period may get some interruptions but the Warm Period will last as long as previous warm periods, maybe some shorter or some longer, but in the same ball park. What has happened will happen.
Salvatore del Prete | September 4, 2018 at 7:07 am |
Not relevant. What matters is now and I say it will be getting colder for the next several years.
” What has happened will happen.” Yes, history says so. But if nature shifts the goal posts back to the Holocene max, then humanity is headed back to the dark ages if it is not prepared. The very steep increase in technical development that occurred in the last 70 years, and which got us whee we are today, will disappear in an instant (and I remember well how it was then).
But if nature shifts the goal posts back to the Holocene max, then humanity is headed back to the dark ages if it is not prepared.
Yes, a cold period will follow this warm period, it always does.
The Vikings moved out of Greenland, but it was warm enough further south. Some people will adapt and others will move.
If we don’t ban fossil fuel, people will be much better able to adapt this next time. If we ban fossil fuel, we are doomed and it will not matter anyway. We have a few hundred years to get ready, that is about how long warm periods are lasting in this wonderful Holocene. We will continue breaking warm records, rainfall records, snowfall records until then. Sea level will start falling, enough to know, during this warm period, because the snowfall puts ocean water on land in cold places while oceans are warm and thawed.
Except, this warm period is an NH event, the SH climate cycles can be in phase or out of phase and the Antarctic ice cycle can make temperature and sea level changes in phase or out of phase with the NH cycles. Above, I was writing about the NH cycles.
This is simple stuff. This is fully supported by ice core data.
When oceans in cold places are thawed, evaporation and snowfall can replenish ice on land on Greenland and/or Antarctica and/or other cold places. When oceans in cold places are frozen, evaporation and snowfall does not happen and ice depletes until it retreats.
Of all the strangest climate uncertainty riddles I can see posed are the dual Arctic Antarctic mismatches of recent times and the recent massive change, now receding in global ice extent.
I have noted as a SH denizen that hot summers North have cold Winters South and vice versa.
But why one pole freezing more for 30 years while the other melted? No answer.
Worse, when they both melted in the last 3 years the global extent plummeted by a massive amount statistically.
But apart from cheering on one side and silence on the other not one comment on the statistical significance.
To go from outside the envelope of uncertainty on one side ( 3 SD) was it only 5 years ago to outside on th3 other (5 SD) was and is incredible.
Worth discussion.
Worth a post on its own.
We have no idea on the range of what is now proven as immense natural variability so how can we have rational discussions on CO2 change when we cannot see, recognise and discuss the rather large mote (giant log actually) in our eye?
Robert touches on it in his claims on how such seeming large shifts are possible in a short time. The problem is that a large shift to a human living environment range can be minute to someone looking at the system from the outside
If you studied ice core data, you could understand the answers to the questions you ask. Why does the NH and SH have warm and cold cycles that are out of phase with each other? Why does the NH and SH have warm and cold cycles that have different frequency? Why did major ice ages have close to the same period and frequency?
I have answered those questions before. When sea level is high and warm and thawed, it snows more and ice builds and advances and causes cold. When sea levels are low and cold and much is frozen, it snows less and ice depletes and retreats and causes warm. Major ice ages are coordinated because the oceans are deep and thawed in both hemispheres at the same time. Minor ice ages and warm periods in the two hemispheres are at different frequencies that are out of phase with each other because it snows and puts more ice on land in one hemisphere than the other and it takes longer for more ice to thaw. Minor ice ages and warm periods can operate mostly independently in the two hemispheres.
cerescokid | September 4, 2018 at 5:29 am |
I’m not sure angech was focused on millennial differences. I believe he was looking at much shorter periods.
true but thanks to PCC for reminding re the land and especially height of antarctica. The distance of the sun from the earth is obviously another potential factor in the different seasons but does not explain wrongness of the North South fit.
In a post entitled The lure of incredible certitude the magnitude of the natural variation that can occur is still the biggest mystery.
OT but when you mentioned height of Antarctica it reminded me of a recent paper that found a greater isostatic rebound in West Antarctica than previously thought. That speaks to 2 points:inherent uncertainty in forecasting SLR and that science is on a never ending journey of new discoveries and rejecting previous assumptions.
The Roman and Medieval and Modern Warm Periods peaked about a thousand years apart. There were cold periods in between, Little Ice Ages. It snows more in warm periods because oceans are more thawed. Ice is replenished and an excess is formed. That ice advances and causes cold periods. It snows less in cold periods because oceans are more frozen. Ice is depleted and it retreats to end cold periods. This is documented in ice core data. Shorter cycles inside these ice cycles can have clear influence, but they do not start or stop the ice cycles, only ice can do that.
but does not explain wrongness of the North South fit.
The internal ice cycles in each hemisphere have acted independently for ten thousand years. The Polar Regions in each hemisphere independently have more snow fall in cold places when the oceans are thawed and less when ice shelves and sea ice are maxed. Cooling in the tropics is much more than the cooling in the polar regions, but the cooling in the tropics does not have the ice cycles and the cooling in the polar regions does have ice cycles.
willb01 | September 3, 2018 at 9:31 pm |
This may be slightly off-topic, but I found this post to be an interesting read from an engineering perspective. For me (an engineer), it highlights differences between engineers and scientists in their respective dealings with uncertainty.
Designing systems/structures is a large part of engineering and a design always includes a series of very precise, science-based predictions. Uncertainty in the predictions will usually correlate with the novelty of the design. As the design evolves into a physical entity, tests are continually carried out to verify/validate as much as possible the initial predictions. If any of those predictions break down as a result of the testing, the design has to be revised.
At the end of the day, the physical entity is realized and operates according to the (possibly revised) design. This is a big advantage engineering has over science. Ultimately in engineering, the predictions are proven either true or false and incredible certitude doesn’t, or shouldn’t, be part of the process.
Interesting for me, Manski’s typology of practices that contribute to incredible certitude in science also seem to play a role in engineering.
Conventional certitude: This would normally apply to many of the engineering design’s initial predictions. These predictions would necessarily have to be verified/validated as the physical entity was being constructed. Any predictions that turned out false would be trashed and the design revised accordingly.
Dueling certitudes: Contradictory predictions are typically resolved through research and prototyping. If this isn’t possible, the design probably never gets off the ground.
Conflating science and advocacy: Not applicable to the engineering design process?
Wishful extrapolation: If the design is novel, there may be a few SWAGs involved and verification/validation testing would then need to be very comprehensive. At the end of the day, no untenable assumptions should remain.
Illogical certitude: Always a danger; cf. Tacoma Narrows Bridge.
Media overreach: The marketing department; cf. Dilbert.
engineer willb01
Years ago I studied both aeronautical engineering and science.
Today, with global warminbg, we have 2 strong camps, so we are in the realm of dueling certitude, of which you write –
This is quite an important observation … never gets off the ground.
The solution to a number of contested global warming hypotheses is to NOT allow them to get off the ground, that is, into the arena of public policy.
At least one of tne of the hypothesis of ‘catastrophic anthropogenic global warming’, or the ‘beneficial outcomes will prevail’ hypothesis, if wrongly alloed to get off the ground, will crash and burn. They are so opposed that they cannot co-exist.
One is wrong. Both might be wrong.
None yet deserves any certitude, nor any policy decisions based on them. Geoff.
Yes, which is why I’ve long argued for increasing our capacity to deal with whatever (presently unknown) future befalls, rather than damaging our capacity and distorting our decisions through emissions reduction policies.
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lloydr56 | September 4, 2018 at 8:18 am |
Interesting that Manski gives a pass to the IPCC. I think this is also true of some of the people who are getting a name for heroically pointing out fields of study with a replication problem. Climate change is the sacred narrative that will give our lives meaning. Still, singling out economics as a field that is causing problems is fair: economists often talk as if they have the master science of politics–free trade, etc. Their results are paltry in comparison to their self-presentation. I love the LBJ story.
“Stable isotope proxies from ice cores show subtle differences in the climatic fluctuations of the Arctic and Antarctic, and recent analyses have revealed evidence of polar synchronization at the millennial time scale.” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259123704_Polar_synchronization_and_the_synchronized_climatic_history_of_Greenland_and_Antarctica
In the simple coupled nonlinear oscillator model it is driven mainly by the difference in heat storage between the two polar regions. In between there are presumably coupled fluctuations in Earth’s turbulent fluid flow field. Realistically there is little more than partial but suggestive data and a climate paradigm.
“Evidence is presented supporting the hypothesis of polar synchronization, which states that during the last ice age, and likely in earlier times, millennial-scale temperature changes of the north and south Polar Regions were coupled and synchronized. The term synchronization as used here describes how two or more coupled nonlinear oscillators adjust their (initially different) natural rhythms to a common frequency and constant relative phase. In the case of the Polar Regions heat and mass transfer through the intervening ocean and atmosphere provided the coupling. As a working hypothesis, polar synchronization brings new insights into the dynamic processes that link Greenland’s Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) abrupt temperature fluctuations to Antarctic temperature variability.” http://www.ajsonline.org/content/312/4/417.short
It is – as Jose Rial says – a search for simple rules at the heart of climate complexity. This theory of synchronous chaos is a conceptual key to understanding how things work. It has important climate implications at the decadal to millennial scales.
“We construct a network of observed climate indices in the period 1900–2000 and investigate their collective behavior. The results indicate that this network synchronized several times in this period. We find that in those cases where the synchronous state was followed by a steady increase in the coupling strength between the indices, the synchronous state was destroyed, after which a new climate state emerged. These shifts are associated with significant changes in global temperature trend and in ENSO variability. The latest such event is known as the great climate shift of the 1970s.” https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL030288
In theory we thus have a mechanism – albeit a complex one – that better explains abrupt shifts in modern records than a paradigm of slow responses to changes in forcing.
The abrupt shifts in Pacific Ocean circulation involve changes in the PDO in the north-eastern Pacific and coincident changes in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events. Increased frequency and intensity of La Niña occur with a cool mode PDO and vice versa (Verdon and Franks, 2006). The change in ocean circulation is associated with changes in wind, currents and cloud that change the energy dynamic of the planet. Cool decadal modes cool the planet and warm modes add to energy storage.
The geophysics of the system are intrinsically interesting – but the theory suggests that the system is pushed by greenhouse gas changes and warming – as well as solar intensity and Earth orbital eccentricities – past a threshold at which stage the components start to interact chaotically in multiple and changing negative and positive feedbacks – as tremendous energies cascade through powerful subsystems. Some of these changes have a regularity within broad limits and the planet responds with a broad regularity in changes of ice, cloud, Atlantic thermohaline circulation and ocean and atmospheric circulation more generally.
Climate is sensitive to changes in ‘control variables’ – and may shift abruptly and more or less extremely in response to the internal dynamic. But even if this is a problem – the rational response is to do more or what we are doing for diverse other reasons. Food security, environmental conservation and technical innovation in land use and productive technologies driven by the generation of wealth. They believe that we are in love with coal – truth is we are in love with cheap energy and it matters little the source. At this time – it is primarily coal and gas.
Despite recognizing the technically extreme risk – low probability/high consequence – well some of us – and having a plan – if you are not singing from the songbook it is ignorance or having sinister motives. This dynamic can easily be seen in the comments on this post. Trivial ‘questions’ are posed repeatedly. Jim is still insisting that I answer his HadCRU question. I have – it is trivial and misguided. As well as the wealth of supporting evidence for decadal variability – I would put the reliability of the source at something inestimably greater than Jim’s. Atomski whines that AGW is not catastrophic in the literature. What’s the problem then? Scott Koonz with his chaotic dogs and fans clearly has not a clue. It puts me in mind of Nick Stokes paint mixing. What they are trying to allegorize is entropy rather than chaos. Yet when I say he doesn’t have a clue there is immense indignation. I have insulted the collective. The unconscious irony is almost every comment from them has the obligatory denigration of outsiders. Scott Koontz’s slighted dignity insists that I failed to pay the respect due to his math and computing background. Guilty as charged. Tony Banton chimes in with the oddest – and somewhat disturbing – rant I have ever seen. In the mix are outright fabrications and persistent obfuscation. Never do they rise to a nuanced discussion. Never do they get beyond simplistic talking points collectively rehearsed in blogospheric echo chambers – in which there is no epistemic uncertainty.
The polar studies are for Angech – btw.
And Russel – it is not that the literature has been ignored. It is just not amenable to the monstrous simplifications of the likes of you.
That’s Simplification Monster – Uncertainty Monster’s evil twin.
popesclimatetheory | September 4, 2018 at 8:03 pm |
Climate is sensitive to changes in ‘control variables’ – and may shift abruptly and more or less extremely in response to the internal dynamic.
The internal dynamic is everything. It is what actually happens. It snows when oceans are deep and warm and thawed and that happens in both hemispheres at the same time and that does cause ice volumes to increase in both hemispheres at the same time. It snows much less when oceans are low and cold and frozen and that happens in both hemispheres at the same time. Major ice ages and Major warm periods are mostly caused by snowfall and ice extent mainly in the NH and the depletion and retreat of ice mainly in the NH. The SH takes part because the oceans connect the hemispheres. Ice Core data shows this to be true.
Complicated, chaotic and random forcing are not important to the major dynamics of ice cycles. Massive systems have internal cycles with natural frequencies. External forcing has little influence on massive natural internal cycle frequencies. External forcing resonates with internal cycles and sometimes results in larger and sometimes smaller cycles, and little change to natural frequencies. Ocean water and ice on land are the masses and the snowfall rates and thawing rates determine the spring rate. In rocket science, one could use a POGO problem for a comparison.
We are almost in agreement Alex. Dimitris Koutsoyiannis suggested the terms predictable and unpredictable for deterministic and random. For practical purposes I agree. I have been sitting here trying to imagine random in eddies. Is it deterministic down to the molecule level? We may never know.
And ice and snow dynamics are an element in Earth’s dynamical complexity that gives rise to chaotic behavior.
Disagree I say all major climatic changes are driven by external forces which can have a zillion outcomes.
HOW THE CLIMATE MAY CHANGE
Below are my thoughts about how the climatic system may work. It starts with interesting observations made by Don Easterbrook. I then reply and ask some intriguing questions at the end which I hope might generate some feedback responses. I then conclude with my own thoughts to the questions I pose.
From Don Easterbrook – Aside from the statistical analyses, there are very serious problems with the Milankovitch theory. For example, (1) as John Mercer pointed out decades ago, the synchronicity of glaciations in both hemispheres is ‘’a fly in the Malankovitch soup,’ (2) glaciations typically end very abruptly, not slowly, (3) the Dansgaard-Oeschger events are so abrupt that they could not possibility be caused by Milankovitch changes (this is why the YD is so significant), and (4) since the magnitude of the Younger Dryas changes were from full non-glacial to full glacial temperatures for 1000+ years and back to full non-glacial temperatures (20+ degrees in a century), it is clear that something other than Milankovitch cycles can cause full Pleistocene glaciations. Until we more clearly understand abrupt climate changes that are simultaneous in both hemispheres we will not understand the cause of glaciations and climate changes.
My explanation:
I agree that the data does give rise to the questions/thoughts Don Easterbrook, presents in the above. That data in turn leads me to believe along with the questions I pose at the end of this article, that a climatic variable force which changes often which is superimposed upon the climate trend has to be at play in the changing climatic scheme of things. The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record, and can perhaps result in primary and secondary climatic effects due to this solar variability, which I feel are a significant player in glacial/inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are , land/ocean arrangements , mean land elevation ,mean magnetic field strength of the earth(magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature gradient equator to pole), the initial state of the earth’s climate(how close to interglacial-glacial threshold condition it is/ average global temperature) the state of random terrestrial(violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation/oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) /extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles, and maybe a roll for Lunar Effects.
What I think happens is land /ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth, the mean state of the climate, the initial state of the climate, and Milankovitch Cycles, keep the climate of the earth moving in a general trend toward either cooling or warming but get consistently interrupted by solar variability and the associated primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability, and on occasion from random terrestrial/extra terrestrial events, which brings about at times counter trends in the climate of the earth within the overall trend.
While at other times when the factors I have mentioned setting the gradual background for the climate trend for either cooling or warming, those being land/ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean state of the climate, initial state of the climate, Milankovitch Cycles , then drive the climate of the earth gradually into a cooler/warmer trend(unless interrupted by a random terrestrial or extra terrestrial event in which case it would drive the climate to a different state much more rapidly even if the climate initially was far from the glacial /inter-glacial threshold, or whatever general trend it may have been in ) UNTIL it is near that inter- glacial/glacial threshold or climate intersection at which time allows any solar variability and the associated secondary effects, and or other forcing no matter how SLIGHT at that point to be enough to not only promote a counter trend to the climate, but cascade the climate into an abrupt climatic change. The back ground for the abrupt climatic change being in the making all along until the threshold glacial/inter-glacial intersection for the climate is reached ,which then gives rise to the abrupt climatic changes that occur and possibly feed upon themselves while the climate is around that glacial/inter-glacial threshold resulting in dramatic semi cyclic constant swings in the climate from glacial to inter-glacial while factors allow such an occurrence to take place. Which was the case 20000 years ago to 10000 years ago.
The climatic back ground factors (those factors being previously mentioned) driving the climate gradually toward or away from the climate intersection or threshold of glacial versus interglacial. However when the climate is at the intersection the climate gets wild and abrupt, while once away from that intersection the climate is more stable.
Although random terrestrial events and extra terrestrial events could be involved some times to account for some of the dramatic swings in the climatic history of the earth( perhaps to the tune of 10% ) at any time , while solar variability and the associated secondary effects are superimposed upon the otherwise gradual climatic trend, resulting in counter climatic trends, no matter where the initial state of the climate is although the further from the glacial/inter-glacial threshold the climate is the less dramatic the overall climatic change should be, all other items being equal.
The climate is chaotic, random, and non linear, but in addition it is never in the same mean state or initial state which gives rise to given forcing to the climatic system always resulting in a different climatic out-come although the semi cyclic nature of the climate can still be derived to a degree amongst all the noise and counter trends within the main trend.
Why is it when ever the climate changes the climate does not stray indefinitely from it’s mean in either a positive or negative direction? Why or rather what ALWAYS brings the climate back toward it’s mean value ? Why does the climate never go in the same direction once it heads in that direction?
Along those lines ,why is it that when the ice sheets expand the higher albedo /lower temperature more ice expansion positive feedback cycle does not keep going on once it is set into motion? What causes it not only to stop but reverse?
Vice Versa why is it when the Paleocene – Eocene Thermal Maximum once set into motion, that being an increase in CO2/higher temperature positive feedback cycle did not feed upon itself? Again it did not only stop but reversed?
My conclusion is the climate system is always in a general gradual trend toward a warmer or cooler climate in a semi cyclic fashion which at times brings the climate system toward thresholds which make it subject to dramatic change with the slightest change of force superimposed upon the general trend and applied to it. While at other times the climate is subject to randomness being brought about from terrestrial /extra terrestrial events which can set up a rapid counter trend within the general slow moving climatic trend.
Despite this ,if enough time goes by (much time) the same factors that drive the climate toward a general gradual warming trend or cooling trend will prevail bringing the climate away from glacial/inter-glacial threshold conditions it had once brought the climate toward ending abrupt climatic change periods eventually, or reversing over time dramatic climate changes from randomness, because the climate is always under a semi extra terrestrial cyclic beat which stops the climate from going in one direction for eternity.
NOTE 1- Thermohaline Circulation Changes are more likely in my opinion when the climate is near the glacial/
inter-glacial threshold probably due to greater sources of fresh water input into the North Atlantic.
Good morning Robert (BST),
So you’ve taken to not answering my allegedly “trivial” question in the midst of an “essay” under an article on an entirely different topic.
That being the case let me rephrase it once again:
Anybody familiar with the relevant literature, would be aware of the “HadCRUT4 Arctic coverage bias” issue.
2) Are you familiar with the relevant literature yet?
1) Or not?
Sorry – a zillion and one.
Thanks Robert.
“The unconscious irony [ surely incredible certitude] is almost every comment from them has the obligatory denigration of outsiders.”
A perfect observation.
The comment on synchronicity occurring perhaps at longer time scales than humans can appreciate observationally and that such synchronicity can actually build up a lot of energy that can discharge or dissipate chaotically when the synchronicity breaks down seems a good way of explaining some of the problems of predicting climate and some of the rhythms that seem to appear.
JCH has not a clue about framing a point in English. But he seems to be the punchline.
It doesn’t work as humor.
I have to say that the name of this thread is exceptionally appropriate. “The lure of incredible certitude”. It is very evident the many look back on the past with the Certitude that extrapolating back will be under the same conditions as the present or as in the past two millennia. This is wrong.
The evidence is clear. The Holocene Max was a very destructive time geologically. Abrupt and extreme climatic changes were then collateral events. The evidence, where it survived, is very clear. So also tell the ancient texts, where some survived to tell.
The incredible certitude of extrapolations is a dangerous element.
If I may, please, be allowed to add further to the previous post; a link that shows the disastrous effects on humanity, based on fresh material. Link: https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/2018/08/12/searching-evidence-4-prehistoric-mass-burials/
Federico Volponi (@FedericoVolpon1) | September 5, 2018 at 1:27 pm |
I wonder how all of this matters (if at all) when the real decisions are being made in the courts of law. Has anybody heard of Juliana vs. the United States? Scary!
Despite Emperor Mosh’s Machiavellian misinformation intrigues – it seems that uncertainty is certain. Even if it weren’t we couldn’t model it. I like James McWilliams footnote.
“Sensitive dependence and structural instability are humbling twin properties for chaotic dynamical systems, indicating limits about which kinds of questions are theoretically answerable. They echo other famous limitations on scientist’s expectations, namely the undecidability of some propositions within axiomatic mathematical systems (Gödel’s theorem) and the uncomputability of some algorithms due to excessive size of the calculation (see ref. 26).”
Tell me he is wrong. Fair warning – I found this a very hard slog. This experiment has been done a gazillion times.
crypto666 | September 5, 2018 at 3:31 pm |
I am fascinated by an article about uncertainty and certitude, and the comments that followed demonstrating the very essence of the article.
Climate alarmists continue to claim that climate change is dangerous. They fail to distinguish between global cooling, which is dangerous, and global warming which in fact would be beneficial not dangerous.
Climate science and the uncertainties are complex. But the conducting a rational and relevant debate about the science is near impossible. It’s more a debate about religious beliefs than science. And it is irrelevant for policy anyway, because policy needs to be justified on the impacts and costs and benefits of the policies. The important discussion needs to be on the impacts, not the science. We need to focus on one key message: global warming, if it does occur, would be beneficial, not harmful and certainly not dangerous. Below are some simple, clear points to make:
1. Complex life began about 600-650 Ma ago
2. The Cambrian explosion (of complex life) occurred as the planet warmed from snowball earth to the Cambrian hothouse
3. Over the past 542 Ma, the average temperature of Earth (over multi-million year periods) has ranged from about 3 C cooler to about 13 C warmer than now
4. The fossil record shows life thrived when the planet was warmer than now and struggled when colder
5. The optimum temperature for life on Earth is during the so called ‘Greenhouse’ temperatures, which are around 3-7 C warmer than now (see Scotese (2016) Figure 15 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275277369_Some_Thoughts_on_Global_Climate_Change_The_Transition_for_Icehouse_to_Hothouse_Conditions
6. We are currently experiencing about the severest icehouse phase since complex life began
7. The last time Earth was nearly this cold was about 300 Ma ago. That icehouse phase lasted about 70 Ma.
8. We are currently about 10 Ma into the current icehouse phase.
9. There is negligible likelihood of exiting the current icehouse phase in less than tens of millions of years – so the glacial interglacial cycles we are currently experiencing will continue.
10. When the planet escaped from the Permian icehouse phase it took 20 Ma to warm to optimum conditions, and another 20 Ma to reach the peak of the Triassic Hothouse. So, there is zero probability of reaching dangerous temperatures in the foreseeable future (i.e. in less than tens of millions of years)
To understand what an unusual situation the planet is currently in, see IPCC AR4, WG1, Chapter 6, Figure 6.1. It shows the planet is currently in the rare situation of having polar ice caps. There have been no ice caps at either pole for about 75% of the past 542 Ma.
Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-6-1.html
Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) is currently 15 C. Average temperature in the tropics is about 26C, about -20C at the north pole, and about -55 C at the south pole (Figure 2). Humans operate at all temperatures from -50c to +50C.
From Scotese (2016), a 3C GMST increase is only about 1.3C at the equator. That is similar to changes that occur over a few years. These changes are not even noticed by inhabitants.
During the Cretaceous, temperatures at the equator were about 2C warmer than now. The average temperature at the N pole was about +10C and the S Pole about 0C (Figure 11). All these temperatures are far better than current for both humans and most life, and better for global agricultural production.
Palm trees and crocodiles lived in the Arctic circle.
Message 1: life thrives when the planet is warmer and struggles when colder than now.
Message 2: any global warming we can get this century would be beneficial, not dangerous.
Like many another this is a narrative – it can’t be anything else – whose moral is the virtue of CO2 assailed by dark forces reigned against it. With an impossible certitude as shaky foundation for a lessen plan. Come Peter that’s not responsible engineering.
That land was in the tropics when Palm Trees and Crocodiles lived there, something moved that land to the Arctic Circle. Polar Regions could have never received enough solar energy to be tropical. If earth was that warm, the tropics would have boiling water. We know tropical stuff grew in the tropics. We know of no way tropical stuff could grow in polar regions, there was not enough solar in to accomplish that.
We can disagree about how tropical land moved to the polar region, but we cannot grow stuff without lots of solar in. That did not and could not happen.
Peter Lang | September 7, 2018 at 10:39 pm |
Popesclimatetheory
That land was in the tropics when Palm Trees and Crocodiles lived there
Nope. That’s dead wrong. The latitudes where rocks and fossils were deposited are well know and well constrained.
That goes back to science is settled, 97% of scientists agree.
Tropical stuff grows in tropical latitudes, tropical stuff growing in polar regions is in the other 3%. They got it wrong, 3% of scientists agree, actually less than that, all real scientists are skeptical.
popesclimatetheory,
If earth was that warm, the tropics would have boiling water.
That is dead wrong too.
The average temperature during the Cretaceous was about 2C warmer in the tropics, 55C warmer at the South Pole and 30C warmer at the North Pole (compare Figures 2 and 11 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275277369_Some_Thoughts_on_Global_Climate_Change_The_Transition_for_Icehouse_to_Hothouse_Conditions ). Warm temperate almost to the North Pole (Figure 7).
The reasons were that both ocean and atmospheric circulations were quite different than than now. Look at where the tectonic plates were located. Climate models cannot reproduce the equator to poles temperature gradients that existed during the Cretaceous (see for example Figure 3 here): https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2aee/e8766625b0dc837384e9cb1b25c429990538.pdf
Atomsk's Sanakan (@AtomsksSanakan) | September 29, 2018 at 1:40 pm |
Re: “We need to focus on one key message: global warming, if it does occur, would be beneficial, not harmful and certainly not dangerous. Below are some simple, clear points to make:
5. The optimum temperature for life on Earth is during the so called ‘Greenhouse’ temperatures, which are around 3-7 C warmer than now (see Scotese (2016) Figure 15 “
Your own source rebuts you, as I’ve explained to you on other occasions:
You cite “Scotese (2016)”. I’m familiar with much of Scotese’s work. This is the article from Scotese that you’re citing to make your politically-motivated points:
Click to access 5564088408ae8c0cab36f612.pdf
If you’re citing it, then you should have read it, and thus know that it says things like:
“But Nature may not have its way. Things have changed. We have changed things. The addition of CO2 to the atmosphere during the last 200 years of human industry has amplified this natural warming trend and the average global temperature has risen rapidly. […] Since 1880, [the average global temperature] has increased another .6˚ degrees to 14.4˚C (as of 2015). This rate of warming is ~50 times faster than the rate of warming during the previous 21,000 years”
“Extreme global warming was responsible for the greatest mass extinction of all time. 99.99% of all animal life was wiped out. We are fortunate that the mammal-like reptiles, our evolutionary ancestors made it through that climatic catastrophe!”
“These extremely warm polar temperatures were approached only a few times in Earth history, during the great Permo-Triassic extinction and during the warmest hothouse worlds (Cambro-Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Triassic, late Cretaceous, PETM, and middle Eocene)”
“The absorption of CO2 by the oceans resulted in the acidification of ocean waters and caused the widespread extinction of certain marine plankton […]. The amount of carbon injected into the atmosphere during the PETM (~4.5 trillion tons) is thought to be about equal to the amount of carbon (CO2 & CH4) that humans will release into the atmosphere during the next several centuries, as all fossil fuel reserves are inexorably consumed […].”
So your own source admits to anthropogenic global warming, and admits to warming-induced mass extinction. Your source also admits to ocean-acidification-induced extinctions, and compares that to ocean acidification in response to anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2.
You conveniently left these points out, making it easier for you to claim that warming would not be dangerous, and that warmer greenhouse temperatures would be optimal for life on Earth. Why did you do that?
Consistent with what Scotese said, increased atmospheric CO2 results in both warming and ocean acidification (due to ocean uptake of some of the excess CO2 from the atmosphere). Both of these factors likely contributed to the Permian extinction. See:
“Initial pulse of Siberian Traps sills as the trigger of the end-Permian mass extinction”
“Climatic and biotic upheavals following the end-Permian mass extinction”
“Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction”
“End-Permian mass extinction in the oceans: An ancient analog for the twenty-first century?”
“High-precision geochronology confirms voluminous magmatism before, during, and after Earth’s most severe extinction”
“Mass extinction events and the plant fossil record”, table 2 on page 549
CO2-induced warming and ocean acidification are also occurring now. Further discussion on the ocean acidification in the sources below:
Doney et al., 2009: “Ocean acidification: The other CO2 problem”
“A time-series view of changing ocean chemistry due to ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 and ocean acidification”
“History of seawater carbonate chemistry, atmospheric CO2, and ocean acidification”
“The geological record of ocean acidification”
“Detecting anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake and ocean acidification in the North Atlantic Ocean”
Given the aforementioned points of mass extinctions from CO2-induced warming and ocean acidification in the distant past, this has interesting implications for how CO2-induced, anthropogenic climate change contributed to the current man-made mass extinction. For further context, see:
“Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction”
“Global biodiversity: Indicators of recent declines”
“Could a potential Anthropocene mass extinction define a new geological period?”
“Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions”
“Biodiversity risks from fossil fuel extraction”
A zillion and two?
Being up front about what you know you don’t know is not the major problem. What you think you know that is wrong is the problem.
Earth’s climate changed without mankind’s help for billions of years. Believing we can suddenly take over in a few decades is the major problem. If you don’t understand what happened over the past fifty million years, you don’t understand what happened over the past fifty years. Man got thermometers and computers and suddenly believed the calculations that came out of the computers when the thermometer data was put in and ignored the proxy data that people have worked to reconstruct that does give us enough information to understand what does cause climate change. The ice core data is the best treasures. Eight hundred thousand from the SH and one hundred and fifty thousand years from the NH. Ice accumulation is the most in the warmest times and then the more ice causes cold. Ice accumulation is the least in the coldest times and then the depleted ice allows warming. The internal ice cycles have natural frequencies that are determined by the amount of water that is available and used for forming ice. A warm period last as long as it takes to produce enough ice to advance and cause cold. A cold period lasts as long as it takes to deplete enough ice to allow ice retreat and warming.
Ice cycle frequencies changes as ocean circulations changed due to drifting continents and ocean levels and the amount of sequestered ice.
People believe the external cycles cause all climate change. Earth is a natural system with natural internal cycles. External forces resonate with and against natural internal cycles and sometimes the internal cycles resonate with bigger cycles and sometimes with smaller cycles and get changed a little by external forcing, but internal natural frequencies are determined by the mass of water and ice that are part of each cycle.
This is how basic physics works. You can drive a natural cycle at its natural frequency with small forces at the right time and direction. You cannot stop a natural frequency cycle with huge forces and force a different frequency unless those forces are really overwhelming. Climate deals with huge alternating forcing in the NH and SH with day and night, summer and winter, Milankovich Cycles. Two or Three watts per meter squared is tiny compared to what is dealt with from other causes. Any warming causes more evaporation and more rain and snow, The temperature that oceans freeze and thaw is the thermostat set point that thaws oceans and promotes snowfall and ice increase and freezes the oceans and promotes less snowfall and ice depletion and retreat.
This is presented to us for our education by the ice core data. We can extent that knowledge back to understand other proxy data that always shows natural cycles that changes due to ocean circulations and changes in the ice sequestering on land in cold places and ocean volumes. Big ice cycles used lots of water and ice. Little cycles now use much less water and ice. We have a new normal with smaller cycles because more ice is sequestered and that ice and water does not take part in Holocene cycles.
co2islife | September 6, 2018 at 4:14 pm |
These videos pretty much sum up the value of overconfidence.
https://realclimatescience.com/2018/09/experts/
“Cherish those who seek the truth but beware of those who find it.”
I say it is not internal all external.
Massive systems cycle at natural frequency intervals. External forcing cycles energize internal cycles at internal cycle frequencies, sometimes they result in larger cycles and sometimes smaller cycles. Without overwhelming force, this is the only possibility. Changes are made to mass and spring rate to change internal natural frequencies. The balance between ice sequestered on land and water in the ocean are the adjustable masses. The circulation of oceans and the balance between open thawed ocean and closed frozen ocean surface determines the spring rate. Much warm thawed ocean surface results in more snowfall than ice thawing rates. Cold frozen oceans results in less snowfall than ice thawing rates. This is the adjustable spring rate.
Engineers and Scientists and Regular People understand these basic principals. They forget to consider this when they look for correlations with climate because these adjustments are made over longer term cycles than the cycles they model.
I disagree with this internal explanation ,but everyone has an opinion.
I say all of the internal changes are regulated by external changes, ranging from Milankovitch Cycles, to changes in solar activity itself, to changes in the geo magnetic field. Not to mention how a random asteroid impact ,and what a near by super nova explosion in relative terms could impact the climate.
While this is happening the exact outcome dependent upon the given state of the climate and ocean /land arrangements, mean land elevations at that given time.
Those zillions of combinations in my opinion set things in motion, which give a different climatic outcome, which at best exhibits quasi cyclicality.
Salvatore confuses control variables with a dynamic, resonant system response.
Every natural thing has internal natural cycles. I guess man took over the cycles, from nature, fifty years ago when man took over climate from nature. Natural climate change has ceased and it has been replaced with manmade climate change.
I do not subscribe to that. Modern climate cycles are still natural.
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The control variables set the dynamic resonant system in motion. Where it goes depends on countless other factors, some random.
But internal dynamics set the pace, direction and scope of change. It is unpredictable rather than random – in accord with Koutsoyiannis’ definition.
It is not unpredictable and not random. The internal dynamics set the pace, direction and scope of change. External forcing does cause some change but not very much compared to internal natural cycles.
So what causes internal dynamics to change in the first place? I emphasize in the first place. If you have an answer then what caused that to change in the first place. What started the process?
Climate change has always been happening. The formation of the Earth started the process.
The only time there was with no change was in computer models and they are known to be always wrong.
I say external forcing starts the process ,then once it starts internal dynamics can take it from there as long as the external forces remain constant for the time being.
In the words of Michael Ghil (2013) the ‘global climate system is composed of a number of subsystems – atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere – each of which has distinct characteristic times, from days and weeks to centuries and millennia. Each subsystem, moreover, has its own internal variability, all other things being constant, over a fairly broad range of time scales. These ranges overlap between one subsystem and another. The interactions between the subsystems thus give rise to climate variability on all time scales.’
The theory – rightfully a fundamental law of physics – says that the system is pushed by greenhouse gas changes and warming – as well as solar intensity and Earth orbital eccentricities – past a threshold at which stage the components start to interact chaotically in multiple and changing negative and positive feedbacks – as tremendous energies cascade through powerful subsystems. Some of these changes have a regularity within broad limits and the planet responds with a broad regularity in changes of ice, cloud, Atlantic thermohaline circulation and ocean and atmospheric circulation.
Dynamic climate sensitivity implies the potential for a small push to initiate a large shift. Climate in this paradigm of abrupt change is an emergent property of the shift in global energies as the system settles down into a new climate state. The traditional definition of climate sensitivity as a temperature response to changes in CO2 makes sense only in periods between climate shifts – as climate changes at shifts are internally generated. Climate evolution is discontinuous at the scale of decades and longer.
In the way of true science – it suggests at least decadal predictability. The current cool Pacific Ocean state seems more likely than not to persist for 20 to 30 years from 1998. The flip side is that – beyond sometime in the next decade – the evolution of the global mean surface temperature may hold surprises on both the warm and cold ends of the spectrum (Swanson and Tsonis, 2009).
Yes Robert that is the correct thinking.
Well it is as correct as such a simple narrative can be. – without physical evidence and mechanisms it is little more than noise. You don’t have any do you?:
Dynamic climate sensitivity implies the potential for a small push to initiate a large shift.
“climate sensitivity” implies the potential for a small push to initiate a large shift
Actual data implies the potential for a large push to initiate a shift that disappears in natural cycles.
These natural ‘cycles’ you imagine are the dynamics. And your simple story repeated so frequently is far too simple.
Occam told us to look for the simple answers, they are overlooked because everyone looks for complicated. The easy stuff slips by much of the time. The complicated stuff is real, but the simple stuff is not considered, except as a result.
“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.” attributed to Einstein
Massive systems cycle at natural frequency intervals. External forcing cycles energize internal cycles at internal cycle frequencies, sometimes they result in larger cycles and sometimes smaller cycles.
POPESCLIMATETHEROY SAYS ABOVE- I agree.
I think Robert, Pope, and myself all believe in natural variability determines the climate with some of us putting more emphasis and some putting more emphasis on internal.
more emphasis on external cor
Underneath, I think we “may” agree more than we disagree.
These exchanges of ideas help me, thank you both.
Internal natural cycles at natural frequencies are what happens, they must be excited by something or nothing would happen.
There are day and night, summer and winter, cloudy and sunny, ocean cycles in the different oceans, milankovich cycles, solar cycles, etc. These are studied in detail. There are cycles of warm ocean and more snowfall, cold ocean and less snowfall, cycles of more ice volume and ice advance and less ice volume and ice retreat. These cycles are treated as a result of warm and cold and not studied as having any part of cause. This is wrong. More ice extent causes earth to be colder with more reflecting and thawing. Less ice extent causes earth to be warmer with less reflecting and thawing.
You are agreeing, in general. But one important point is being missed (though RI Ellison pointed it out clearly in the ‘catastrophe theory’). The system is in general “Unstable”.
One can see evidence of that clearly at link: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/04/paleoclimate-cycles-are-key-analogs-for-present-day-holocene-warm-period/ fig1 and other figures. The saw-tooth shape. The jagged slope of the saw-tooth is chaotic friction, friction being the influence of smaller forcings that are or may be also unstable and/or non repetitive. (Example: 5500yrs ago the Sahara no longer remained below sea level and dried out).
Having said that, this site has provided to what I see as a crucial link/clue to a triggering mechanism of importance in the Eddy cycle. The source of that influence I have no idea. Link: https://melitamegalithic.wordpress.com/2018/07/24/searching-evidence-update/
Yes I think we are on the correct path and it is sad that this facet of climate science is being overwhelmed by the waste of time being devoted to AGW. .
The system is in general “Unstable”.
Repeating cycles with the same pattern, and then changing to a different pattern show a “changing stable system” The mass and spring rate is adjusted and causes different frequency and magnitude of natural cycles.
Benefits of Global Warming:
Global Tree Cover Is Expanding Rapidly
Source: GWPF
“Global tree canopy cover increased by 2.24 million square kilometers (865,000 square miles) between 1982 and 2016, reports a new study in Nature. These new findings contradict earlier studies that reported a continuing net loss of forest cover. “
Yes, green things are growing more, using water more efficiently, due to more CO2. That is data gathered by the view from space that we now enjoy.
Did you see my reply to your second comment here: https://judithcurry.com/2018/09/01/the-lure-of-incredible-certitude/#comment-880251 ?
Did you read and understand the references I linked?
I read part of the link you sent. I stopped when I read:
Since 1880, it has increased another. 6˚egrees to 14.4˚C (as of 2015). This rate of warming is 50 times faster than what occurred during the previous 21,000 years. DID YOU READ THAT!
I have studied climate on most days for over ten years. I have talked to many scientists and engineers and many others. I have attended a lecture by Michael Mann, Graeme Stevens, many others. I have talked to and listened to Dr Neil Frank, Dr Bill Gray and others, in the US and foreign countries. I have attended conferences in multiple US and foreign cities. I have read the works of Maurice Ewing and William Donn who wrote the best theroy about how the ice cycles work, written in the 1950’s.
You write a lot of stuff I agree with, but you treat ice as a result and it is a major part of cause. The Holocene will last a really long time, it is the new normal. The major ice ages are done, the ice that is sequestered takes mass out of the ice age and warming cycles and not enough ice and water is available for a major ice age. Before you can form ice for a major ice age, you must thaw much of Greenland and some of Antarctica and put water back into the oceans and get the oceans deep enough and warm enough to evaporate and put ice back on the NH continents. There is enough warm ocean water available for the next little ice age, which will come after a few hundred years of more snowfall.
The Holocene IS THE NEW NORMAL! IT WILL LAST A LONG TIME!
It takes much water and energy to produce lots of ice. Polar oceans are covered with sea ice to prevent evaporation while oceans in the tropics and mid latitudes are filled with water and heated by the sun. When the oceans are warm enough and deep enough and contain enough energy, the polar sea ice is removed and evaporation occurs using the water and energy that has been stored in the oceans. Rain and Snow form in the clouds and release the energy picked up from evaporation as IR out that is removed from earth to get rid of the energy that was removed from the water vapor.
People don’t understand the ice cycles and the energy cycles that go along with them.
The ice then advances and causes cold and the reflecting and thawing keep it cold until enough ice thaws to allow ice retreat and warming.
It is a natural cycle and we do not and can not cause or stop it.
Thank you for demonstrating that you are a waste of time, a denier of the relevant facts, do not own up to and admit your errors, and change the subject rather than admit you were wrong. These are all signs of intelIectual dis-honesty.
Instead of learning and then admitting you were wrong you changed the subject to rate or warming. And that comment was ludicrous. If you are comparing rates of change you have to compare like with like – i.e. over similar lengths of time. You compared the rate of change over 135 years with the rate of change over 21,000 years. That’s like comparing the rate of change over a day with the rate of change over ~60 years.
correction: comparing rate of change over 135 years and over 21,000 years is same as comparing rate of change over 1 year and 155 years.
popesclimatetheory | September 11, 2018 at 9:34 pm |
When you have nothing, you resort to consensus statements.
Thanks, I don’t need to say anything else
You write reasonable stuff sometimes, you wrote:
Says popesclimatetheory
You can’t say that because there are to many unknowns. .
You could have a Yellowstone Event, you could have an asteroid impact, super nova explosion near by, have the sun go into a very deep protracted period of inactivity, have the earth’s geo magnetic field collapse(right now decaying at the rate of 10% per decade) which would put the climate of earth into chaos.
So at best I think you could say with all things being equal (no extraordinary events) it looks like the Holocene has a long way to go based on your assumptions..
I must agree with you about that. extraordinary events make extraordinary changes.
Who knows that is what makes climate science so interesting. I for sure do not really know although I want to think I do.
But you are on the correct path. No doubt.
Earthquakes over last 30 days 4.0 mag. or higher up from around an avg. of 685 or so to 1000!
Seismic monitor web-site.
angech | September 11, 2018 at 8:52 am |
Apophenia, thanks Joshua. Fits perfectly.
When I play the pokies I can sit for hours looking at little patterns that might lead to a win in the next 2 spins.
Note to all. Does not work. Fun trying and limits bet size.
Re hurricanes and 30 years. Well known with cyclones Southern Hemisphere.
Would be a simple reason.
Number of hurricanes per year, width of path of a cyclone on average means that at a particular latitude there would be a specific percentage chance of being in the zone.
Note to all professional hurricane watchers out there.
Can use this if attributed to ATTP and me.
Sure it has already been done .
Nelson Wayne Liston (@NWliston) | September 12, 2018 at 12:45 pm |
“Your dog craves monotony” advises the old Yorkshire veterinarian to young vet James Herriot in “All Creatures Great and Small”.
rtj1211 | October 10, 2018 at 12:53 pm |
The way to deal with uncertainty is to place temporal boundaries on the consequences of that uncertainty.
An obvious example from everyday life is a guy being attracted to a girl but being uncertain whether she is attracted to him. Despite a faint heart never winning a fair lady, many shy from the potential embarrassment of being rejected.
The pragmatic solution is to allow three rejections of interest before moving on to pastures new. It may or may not be the right answer, but it minimises emotional damage and resets the male interest back to the starting gate. And it does not spend too much time up a blind alley.
In business, the concept of tollgates and options analysis are used to manage uncertainty in many R+D scenarios.
So for example, I was part of a start up looking to provide diagnostics for selecting high quality eggs for IVF over a decade ago. I sold the seedcorn investment of £500k in two tranches, with £250k invested in retrospective analysis and computer algorithm development upfront. If and only if the results were good would £250k be invested in a forward-looking clinical trial. In business jargon Tollgate I involved evaluation of the diagnostic development and a GO/NO GO decision.
Options analysis requires a series of outcomes to be postulated and each one valued for if they succeed. The key uncertainty is the probability of each occurring. The usual outcome is something like: ‘if you think there is more than xx% chance of XYZ occurring, you should make the investment.’
The bigger the investments, the greater the consequences of failure.
That is why small scale derisking is often favoured.
My view is quite simple: if people cannot handle uncertainty, they should not work in finance, politics or basic research!
I may hate what Republicans did in the Middle East after 9/11, but I do respect greatly what Rumsfeld said about known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
They are the fundamental parts of due diligence every investor in science R+D should be comfortable evaluating….
Brian White on The big ‘cancel’
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Jose Carlos Ruffinelli
MA07 - Clinical Questions and Potential Blood Markers for Immunotherapy (ID 125)
Type: Mini Oral Session
Track: Immuno-oncology
Moderators:David R Spigel, Roberto Ferrara
Coordinates: 9/08/2019, 13:30 - 15:00, Vancouver (2003)
MA07.02 - Early Change of dNLR Is Correlated with Outcomes in Advanced NSCLC Patients Treated with Immunotherapy (Now Available) (ID 2676)
13:30 - 15:00 | Author(s): Jose Carlos Ruffinelli
The [neutrophils/[leucocytes-neutrophils] ratio (dNLR) correlates with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) outcomes in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) patients. Significance of early dNLR change after the first course of ICI is unknown.
Patients with NSCLC treated with ICI (PD(L)1+/-CTLA4) between Nov. 2012 and Jun. 2018 at 16 EU/US centers were included. A control group treated with chemotherapy (CT) only was also evaluated (NCT02105168). dNLR was collected at baseline (B) and at cycle 2 (C2). Patients were categorized as low vs high dNLR at each timepoint (defined as < vs > 3, as previously done), and the change between B and C2 (good = low at both timepoints, poor = high at both timepoints, mixed = different at each timepoint).
1485 patients treated with ICI were analyzed. PDL1 was negative in 162 (11%), 1-49% in 178 (12%), ≥50% in 201 (14%), and missing in 944 (64%). dNLR at B and C2 did not associate with PD-L1 status.
At baseline, dNLR was high in 509 (34%) patients and associated with worse PFS compared to those patients with low dNLR at baseline (HR 1.56, P<0.0001) and OS (HR 2.02, P<0.0001). At C2, dNLR was high in 484 (34%) and similarly associated with worse outcomes compared to patients with low dNLR at C2 (PFS HR 1.64, P<0.0001; OS HR 2.13, P<0.0001).
Between B and C2, dNLR remained low in 804 (56%, « good ») or high in 327 (23%, « poor ») or changed in 310 pts (22%, « intermediate »). Those with a good dNLR demonstrated mPFS 5.3, mOS 18.6 mo), followed by those intermediate with mixed dNLR (mPFS 3, mOS 9.2 mo), and finally poor dNLR (mPFS 2, mOS 5mo). Outcomes were independant of PD-L1 expression (adjusted HR for PFS 1.94 for intermediate and 3.16 for poor groups, compared to good dNLR group, P<.001; adjusted HR for OS was 2.08 for intermediate and 3.67 for poor groups, P<0.001).A bootstrap tested the stability of OS/PFS prediction (P<0.001).
In the chemo-cohort (n=173), high C1-dNLR (n=81, 47%) was not associated with OS (P=0.84).
dNLR at baseline, at cycle 2, and the change between these two timepoints associated with outcomes in patients treated with immunotherapy independent of PD-L1, but not in patients treated with chemotherapy alone. dNLR is specifically prognostic in the context of immunotherapy.
MA12 - New Frontiers from Pathology to Genomics (ID 138)
Track: Mesothelioma
Moderators:Prasad S Adusumilli, Francisco Perez Ochoa
Coordinates: 9/09/2019, 14:00 - 15:30, Melbourne (1991)
MA12.07 - Integrative Transcriptome Analysis of Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma Reveals a Clinically-Relevant Immune-Based Classification (Now Available) (ID 1680)
Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare and aggressive neoplasia affecting the lining of the lungs. Immune checkpoint inhibitors in MPM have not been extremely successful, likely due to a poor identification of suitable candidate patients for the therapy. The aims of this study were: to identify immune fractions associated with clinical outcome and classify MPM samples based on their immune contexture; to characterize the immune-based groups at the genomic and transcriptomic levels; and to identify potential therapeutic strategies for each group.
Seven gene-expression datasets of MPM were used to assess the immune microenvironment of 516 samples. The abundance of 20 immune fractions in each sample was inferred using Gene Set Variation Analysis. Identification of clinically-relevant fractions was performed with Cox Proportional-Hazards Models adjusted for age, stage, sex, and tumor histology.
T-Helper 2 (TH2, HR=2.14, p=1.5x10-4) and cytotoxic T cells (CTC; HR=0.57, p=9.1x10-3) were found to be consistently associated with overall survival in multiple datasets. Three immune clusters (IG) were subsequently defined based on TH2 and CTC immune infiltration levels: IG1 (54.5% of samples) was characterized by high TH2 and low CTC levels, IG2 (37%) had either low or high levels of both fractions, and IG3 (8.5%) was defined by low TH2 and high CTC levels. This classification was associated with overall survival independently of tumor histology, with an improving survival from IG1 to IG3 (HRIG2=0.52 (0.39–0.69); HRIG3=0.32 (0.19–0.53); p=8.4x10-8).
IG3 was significantly enriched in epithelioid tumors (90% IG3 vs. 62% IG1, p=0.001) and patients were younger compared to the other groups (60 years IG3 vs. 66 years IG1, p=0.021). These groups showed differential molecular profiles, with IG1 enriched for CDKN2A and IFN-related genes deletions. At the transcriptional level, IG1 samples showed upregulation of proliferation and DNA repair-related gene-sets, while IG3 samples presented upregulation of immune and inflammation-related pathways. Finally, integration of gene expression with functional signatures of in vitro drug response showed that IG3 patients are more likely to respond to immune checkpoint inhibitors, while IG1 patients could be more sensitive to PARP inhibitors.
Analysis of publicly available MPM transcriptome data reveals three major immune-based groups, based on TH2 and CTC composition. These clusters are associated with distinct genomic profiles and clinical outcome. Further validation of this classification is warranted in an independent cohort of MPM.
P1.01 - Advanced NSCLC (ID 158)
Type: Poster Viewing in the Exhibit Hall
Track: Advanced NSCLC
Coordinates: 9/08/2019, 09:45 - 18:00, Exhibit Hall
P1.01-54 - Somatic Genome Alterations in Lung Cancer Patients Diagnosed with Li Fraumeni Syndrome (Now Available) (ID 1014)
Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) is a rare hereditary condition that consists of TP53 mutations inherited in autosomal dominant manner that confer high risk of developing cancer, including lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). EGFR-mutated LUAD were reported in the context of LFS but there is no systematic description of somatic mutations and characteristics of lung cancer (LC) patients with LFS.
We present a retrospective analysis of clinical and molecular characteristics of patients with LFS diagnosed with LC at the Catalan Institute of Oncology from 1999 to 2019. We collected demographical and clinicopathological features, germline and somatic mutational alterations, treatment and progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS).
A total of 7 patients with LC and LFS were identified in the Genetic Counseling Unit database. They were carriers of germline mutations in TP53. Five of them were classified as pathogenic: c.638G>A; p.(Arg213Gln), c.725G>A; p.(Cys242Tyr), c.742C>T; p.(Arg248Trp), c.844C>T; p.(Arg282Trp) and c.1010G>A; p.(Arg337His) and two of them as likely pathogenic: c.374C>T; p.(Thr125Met) and c.473G>A; p.(Arg158His). Six out of 7 patients were female and 5 out of 7 never smoker. Median age at diagnosis was 38 year-old (range: 29-74). Five patients had stage IV at diagnosis and the most common histologic subtype was LUAD (5). Six patients had first grade family history of cancer with a median of 2 family members (range: 1-4) and 2 patients had prior history of cancer. Tumor somatic profile in LC was obtained in 6 patients, consisting on a ROS-1 rearrangement in one patient and EGFR mutations in 5 patients (exon 19 deletion in 3 patients and missense mutations in 2 patients, p.(Gly719Ala) at exon 18 and p.(Leu858Arg) at exon 21) and in 1 patient was unknown. All patients with mutant EGFR received EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) with a median PFS of 29 months (95% CI 0-67). Four had partial response and one a complete response to TKI treatment. At disease progression, one patient had small cell transformation and another acquired EGFR T790M mutation. Median lines of treatment were 4 (range 1-6). Two patients are alive at data cut off. Median OS is 47 months (95% CI 32-62).
Patients diagnosed with LC and LFS are enriched with actionable genomic alterations and have an earlier onset of the disease. Clinical outcome of patients with EGFR mutations and LFS did not differ from EGFR mutated LC patients who do not carry TP53 germline mutations.
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The Return of the Native
By: Thomas Hardy
Narrated by: Patrick Tull
Virginia Woolf once called Thomas Hardy "the greatest tragic writer among English novelists." His atmospheric novels were often considered shocking upon their publication. In this classic, Clym Yeobright returns to Egdon Heath from Paris, intending to settle down and improve the lives of his townspeople. But the alluring and mysterious Eustacia Vye has other plans. Like so many of Hardy's masterpieces, The Return of the Native is both a rich character study and a critical examination of Victorian society.
Author Thomas Hardy
Narrator Patrick Tull
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Question: Is There Anything More Liquid Than Water?
What is the thinnest liquid?
Which liquid is heavy than water?
What liquid has the highest viscosity?
What is the thickest liquid in the world?
What is the heaviest liquid per gallon?
Which is more viscous water or honey?
Does rubbing alcohol float on water?
Is there anything less viscous than water?
Which has higher viscosity water or oil?
Is vinegar thinner than water?
Is saliva heavier than water?
What is the lowest viscosity liquid?
Which liquid flows the fastest?
What viscosity is honey?
Which liquid flows freely to ground?
Thanks to the “super material” graphene, a team of researchers managed to create one of the world’s thinnest layers of liquid.
There’s now a new understanding of the word “wet” thanks to physicists who created the thinnest film of liquid ever..
Mustard oil & mercury are some of the liquids that are heavier than water.
One of the most viscous liquids known is pitch, also known as bitumen, asphalt, or tar. Demonstrating its flow and measuring its viscosity is the subject of the longest continuously running scientific experiment, begun in 1927 at the University of Queensland in Australia.
The experiment demonstrates the fluidity and high viscosity of pitch, a derivative of tar that is the world’s thickest known fluid and was once used for waterproofing boats.
Water is the heaviest at 8.3 pounds per gallon.
A fluid that is highly viscous has a high resistance (like having more friction) and flows slower than a low-viscosity fluid. … Honey would move slower than water, so honey would have a greater viscosity.
Ask students: Explain that since ice floats in water, liquid water must be more dense than ice. Since ice sinks in isopropyl alcohol, alcohol must be less dense than ice. This means that water and isopropyl alcohol must have different densities and that the water is more dense than isopropyl alcohol.
Viscosity is a material property which describes the resistance of a fluid to shearing flows. It corresponds roughly to the intuitive notion of a fluid’s ‘thickness’. For instance, honey has a much higher viscosity than water. … Of all fluids, gases have the lowest viscosities, and thick liquids have the highest.
Viscosity can be defined as the term used to describe the property of a fluid which gives resistance to the motion of one layer over another adjacent layer of fluid. Density is important factor when measuring viscosity. More the density more the viscosity. So definitely oil has higher viscosity than water.
Water has a density of about one gram per cubic centimeter (depending a little on temperature and pressure). Household vinegar consists almost entirely of water, but with some acetic acid molecules dissolved in it. In general, dissolving stuff in water makes it more dense, making vinegar the densest of the three.
What’s most interesting, and something that is often found in traditions involving spit, is that its use and meaning can vary greatly even when applied to the same action: … Spit weighs more than water, so you might lose two pounds or more.”
Ether and acetone are the liquids with the lowest viscosities at room temperature that I have seen and checking out my tables of physical constants they are the lowest viscosity common substances.
Physicists surprised to find that in specially coated tubes, the more viscous a liquid is, the faster it flows. It’s widely known that thick, viscous liquids — like honey — flow more slowly than low-viscosity liquids, like water.
Approximate Viscosities of Common Materials (At Room Temperature-70°F) *MaterialViscosity in CentipoiseCastrol Oil1,000 cpsKaro Syrup5,000 cpsHoney10,000 cps11 more rows
When you pour a glass of water, or fill a car with gasoline, you observe that water and gasoline flow freely.
Is Ring Doorbell Invasion Of Privacy?
Can ring have two owners? You can give a Shared User
Is Starbucks A Mermaid?
How did Starbucks get its name? Starbucks got its name
Question: Why Do I Want To Be A Special Education Teacher?
What is the purpose of a special education teacher?
Question: What Is A Typical Dutch Lunch?
What is a typical Dutch diet? The “
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(13 votes, average: 3.54 / 5)
Creativerse is a 3D block-based sandbox adventure game that features a variety of colorful biomes and creatures that the player can harvest, mine, and loot to build any structure imaginable. The game offers robust building tools and blueprints, teleporters, and fully tameable creatures.
Publisher: Playful Corporation
Playerbase: Medium
Type: Sandbox Adventure
Pros: +Variety of building tools. +Huge sandbox world. +Building blueprints. +Unlockable recipes.
Cons: -No server list. -No offline mode. -No NPCs.
Creativerse Overview
Creativerse is a free-to-play sandbox adventure MMO set in a colorful world filled with a variety of unique monsters, blocks, materials, and biomes to collect and explore. The game's block-based exploration and building is reminiscent of popular sandbox voxel games like Minecraft and Trove, with multiple features that set it apart: better graphics, the ability to tame all creatures—allowing players to farm them infinitely for materials—crafting recipes that unlock as players craft each item, keeping low level players from crafting high level equipment, monsters with unique abilities and attacks, and environmental hazards such as heat, cold, and corruption that must be dealt with using crafted equipment. Players can create their own private worlds, share them with other players, or join other players from all over the world in theirs.
Creativerse Key Features:
Massive Sandbox World – explore an expansive sandbox world with a variety of biomes such as lush forests, frozen tundras, and barren deserts.
Wide Range of Building Blocks - harvest and mine a variety of blocks, from prolific dirt blocks to ores that can only be found deep beneath the surface.
Every Monster is Tameable – huge variety of unique creatures, all of which can be tamed, harvested, and turned into pets with the use of a craftable Taming Collar.
Unlockable Crafting Recipes – unlock crafting recipes as rewards for crafting new items, progressively unlocking higher level equipment as the player progresses throughout the game.
Farming and Cooking – search for crops, harvest them for seeds, plant your own farm, and use those materials to cook replenishing food and to feed your pets.
Single Player and Multiplayer – jump into a friend's game with friendly fire turned on, or start a new world on your own, with the ability to easily share your creations with the game's community.
Creativerse Screenshots
Creativerse Featured Video
Creativerse Review
By, Marc Marasigan
Creativerse is a free-to-play 3D voxel building game similar to Minecraft and Terraria. Players take on the role of adventurers stranded in a mysterious world inhabited by unique and often dangerous creatures. With nothing but a note to go on, players must explore and harvest materials from their environment to build and craft their own shelter, armor, and weapons that will help them survive the dangers of the night. The game features cartoony graphics similar to Battleborn, including the sci-fi feel, which are a leap up from the retro-style voxel graphics of Minecraft, Trove, Terraria, and other earlier games in the genre. The sound effects are well-done but the soundtrack needs to be turned up a bit. As it is, the music is barely audible even at max volume.
Players start the game by either creating their own world or joining a pre-existing one. Unfortunately, the devs seem to have forgotten to add a way to browse for available servers aside from searching for the player name or the world name using the “handy” search bar found in the main menu. Another complaint I have is that there’s no indication of whether a world is active or not, or how many players are currently online which makes choosing servers a matter of trial and error. Once players have chosen their servers they are then given the option of customizing their avatars which is a simple matter of choosing their gender, hair, eye, shirt, shorts, and shoe color. More customization options, even a few hairstyle choices, would have done wonders for the game though.
The All-Powerful Glove
Creativerse’s core gameplay revolves around gathering and mining material blocks from your voxel-based environment to craft shelter, armor, and weapons, to help you survive the nights when aggressive and powerful monsters come out to play. Sound familiar? It’s probably because Creativerse borrows heavily from Minecraft, the game that started the sandbox voxel craze, with a few unique additions. Instead of crafting different tools to efficiently accomplish different tasks, such as picks for stone, shovel for dirt, and axes for wood, players only need one tool, an oversized sci-fi glowing glove that magically sucks in any block its pointed at, as long as you have a strong enough battery cell, known in-game as a Mining Cell, to power your glove.
Dirt, grass, trees, and almost any surface block can be mined even without a mining cell, stone blocks with the basic Wood Mining Cell, and deeper blocks with more advanced mining cells, like the Lumite Mining Cell, which gives your block-sucking glove the power to mine any block you choose, from grass to corrupted water—the most difficult block to mine, and everything in between.
Build, Craft, Survive
Now that you’ve figured out how to mine blocks, it’s time to put them to use. Pop-up tips guide new players on what items to craft. Unfortunately, that’s all players get as far as tutorials go. Players start off by crafting a wooden sword, not my first choice for a weapon but a definite improvement from the broken tree branch that players start out with. As soon as players craft an item, the recipe for the next tier is automatically unlocked. In this case, a Stone Sword. Crafting a Stone Sword, unlocks the recipe for the Obsidian Sword and so on. Players also need to craft a Processor as soon as they’re able. Processors convert raw materials, like vines and wood blocks, into higher quality blocks, such as twine and wood slabs which are needed to craft better items. Later into the game, players can also craft a Forge, a Cooking Station, and Extractors to convert Ore blocks such as Coal and Obsidian into usable materials. Additionally, players can purchase blueprints using resources. Blueprints serve as a guide for a variety of cute, and sometimes wacky, house designs eliminating the need to for counting blocks.
Aside from crafting blocks into weapons, armor, and tools players can use practically any type of block to build shelter, from dirt and leaves to limestone and stalactites. Houses can even be built from snow. Just make sure that you build them in a cold enough place. Building a shelter is a vital part of surviving in the world of Creativerse because it protects players from the powerful and aggressive monsters that come out at night. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a four-story limestone palace or a cave dug out of the side of a mountain, as long as it’s covered and illuminated. Light sources prevent monsters from spawning around them so, unless you want a cranky Night Pigsy for a roommate, it’s probably a good idea to always have a well-lit shelter. And the nasty nocturnal creatures spawn in dark caves and underground so be extra careful when digging down for blocks and make sure to place a source of light every few blocks. Good thing torches burn forever in Creativerse.
Part of the appeal of sandbox voxel games is being able to create virtually anything you can imagine, be it a small farm or a gigantic cruise ship, and sharing creations with friends. So is working together with other players to create a sprawling metropolis. Creativerse is no different. Players can join a host of player-made worlds with different rules ranging from cooperative building projects to full-blown persistent PvP. Some worlds even allow other players to claim whole plots of land for themselves to do with as they please in exchange for a small resource fee. Claiming plots prevents other players from mining and messing up your patiently-created masterpieces.
Premium Blocks
Want a Moroccan-inspired house or a Greek mansion made out of Chiseled Limestone blocks? Check out the in-game cash shop for a selection of premium blocks that can be purchased using gold coins. Players start off with 450 gold coins, which is a quite substantial amount considering that a premium block set costs 200 gold. Additional gold coins can be purchased using real world money. Premium blocks are purely cosmetic in nature and do not affect the game’s balance in any way. Some blocks are even given away for free. Be sure to check the cash shop regularly to find out which blocks are up for grabs.
Final Verdict - Great
Creativerse is Minecraft on steroids. If you’ve played Minecraft before then you’ll feel right at home with Creativerse. Personally, I find games like Creativerse highly-addictive and can easily spend a couple of hours trying to make my house look just right or spend a couple of days creating a massive medieval wall complete with walkways, towers, crenellations and parapets, and a secret passage embedded in the wall. Essentially, it’s like building a Lego model without all the mess and effort of prying apart blocks. Although I do have to admit that these type of games aren’t for everyone and are ridiculously time-consuming. If you’re a Minecraft fan then you’ll definitely love Creativerse. If not, it’s still well worth checking out and won’t cost you anything except a couple of minutes (or hours) and a few gigabytes of disk space.
Creativerse Videos
Creativerse Online Links
Creativerse Steam Page
Creativerse Developer Site
Creativerse Wikia [Guides / Info]
Creativerse System Requirements
Operating System: Windows Vista SP2 or higher / OSX 10.8 or higher
CPU: Intel Core 2 Quad-Core 2.4 GHz / AMD Phenom II Quad-Core 2.8 GHz or better
Video Card: GeForce GTX 8800 / ATI Radeon HD 2900XT
Hard Disk Space: 2 GB
CPU: Intel Core i5 2.67 GHz / AMD Phenom II 945 3.0 GHz or better
Video Card: GeForce GTX 460 / Radeon HD 5850
Creativerse Music & Soundtrack
Creativerse Additional Information
Developer: Playful Corporation
Engine: Unity
Pay-to-Play Early Access: August 12, 2014
Free-to-Play Launch: November 11, 2015
Creativerse is developed and published by Playful Corporation, a Texas-based indie game developer that develops games using the Oculus Rift, a virtual reality headset. The developer's first game, Lucky's Tale, is designed entirely for the Oculus Rift and the developers have discussed giving Creativerse Oculus Rift functionality as well. Creativerse was initially launched in August, 2014 as a pay-to-play Early Access title on Steam with an estimated launch date of six months from its early access release. The game's developers decided that the game needed more time before its full release, eventually releasing the game as a free-to-play game in November, 2015 to expand its reach and gain more user feedback.
Simulation / Survival
Creativerse News
2017-05-03 - Creativerse Launches Out Of Early Access On May 8th
2016-01-15 - Creativerse Gameplay – First Look
2015-11-09 - Creativerse Should Go Free-To-Play Within The Week
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Join the IOP
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I’ve had the privilege to manage pioneering, multidisciplinary and educational projects.
Like the architecture of the city of London, where it has its home, the Institute of Physics seems able to mix an ancient discipline with a modern communication providing several benefits and services to a worldwide community of people united by a genuine passion for science. The IOP offers powerful tools to stay connected with the latest news in physics.
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Attorney Paula Silva Joins the Men's Divorce Law Firm
Attorney Paula Silva Joins the Men’s Divorce Law Firm
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The Men’s Divorce Law Firm is pleased to announce that Associate Attorney Paula Silva has joined their team.
Paula Silva graduated from the University of Florida with a Bachelor of Arts Degree in Criminology and earned her law degree with a concentration in Children and Family Law from Barry University School of Law. Attorney Silva began as a law clerk with the Men’s Divorce Law Firm while in law school, where she began building her foundation and knowledge of family law.
During law school Attorney Silva also served as a Volunteer Advocate for Children, working as a liaison between Guardians Ad Litem and children who have been abused, abandoned or neglected. She served on the Executive Board of the Women Lawyers Association, and has assisted in other community service events for non-profit organizations such as Harbor House through her work with the Central Florida Association for Women Lawyers.
Attorney Silva is a member of the Orange County Bar Association and Florida Bar Family Law Sections, and she serves as a Guardian Ad Litem through the Legal Aid Society of Orange County.
Please contact the Men’s Divorce Law Firm to schedule a consultation with Attorney Silva and discuss your family law needs.
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manoli moriaty
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Vi-We-Nous is a contemporary dance piece directed by choreographer and dancer Teresia Björk. The work is the second part in a trilogy about seminal Swedish artist Siri Derkert. Vi-We-Nous is a retrospective of Derkert’s time in Paris in focus with all that it meant to be a woman in the creative process at the time. Björk has in recent years conducted research on the life of Siri Derkert, visited her studio in Montparnasse, and met people who were close to her. With the help of choreography, voice, light, and music, she conveys Derkert’s wayward thoughts and feminist visions. The composer and musician Manoli Moriaty from Manchester performs live on stage and gives life to every moment of the act. Vi-We-Nous was developed during the summer of 2016 in Stockholm, and had its premiere in Beijing as part of the contemporary dance festival “The New” in August at the 9 Theatre of the Chaoyang Cultural Centre. The two performances in China were followed by four shows at Stockholm’s Dansmuseet in October. The work was supported by the Swedish Arts Council and Arts Council England.
Teresia Björk: movement, choreography, concept
Manoli Moriaty: sound design & performance
Martin Hellberg: light design
Håkan Larsson: video
University of Salford research centre
Beijing New Dance Festival programme
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Francesco Dracone set for Dale Coyne test at Sebring
By Tony DiZinnoNov 20, 2013, 2:30 PM EST
Francesco Dracone is testing for Dale Coyne Racing at Sebring on December 3-4, which is reason number 723 why I love Dale Coyne.
Coyne hasn’t made a living in 30-plus years as an IndyCar driver, then team owner, by making foolish business decisions. The oft-heard knock on Dale – or “bad rap” as it is – has always been that he will look to take a driver who brings money in exchange for a chance to drive.
But in reality, it’s actually a smart business move that pays dividends for all parties. It gives said driver a chance to live their dream, to prove his or herself in an IndyCar, and it provides Coyne’s team the necessary budget to hire a top-tier driver and/or engineer (as he has done every year since 2006, in Champ Car).
Some of the most ardent IndyCar observers will remember Dracone from his two-race cameo with Conquest Racing in the previous generation Dallara-Honda at two road course races, Mid-Ohio and Sonoma, in 2010.
gland and proud to inform that I ll drive @sebringraceway for @DaleCoyneRacing for 2 days on 3/4 Dic @IndyCar
— francesco dracone (@effediracing) November 20, 2013
Dracone, 30, is an Italian with a less than distinguished career in European junior formulas. He was realistically only quicker than Milka Duno – also a member of the Coyne honor roll – in those two starts.
He was slated to drive a P2 class Morgan Judd for Conquest at the 12 Hours of Sebring in 2012, but couldn’t get up to speed and was replaced race morning by Jan Heylen, who, you guessed it, is also a graduate of the Coyne School of American Open-Wheel Racing.
And while I highly doubt this is anything more than a chance for Dracone to pay a little bit in exchange for two days at Sebring, it’s always fun to see an obscure blast from the past back in an IndyCar.
The “surprise drivers” who’ve tested an IndyCar this offseason, once Dracone does his laps, include Arie Luyendyk Jr. (also for Coyne), Mikael Grenier (KV) and Mikhail Aleshin (SMP Racing via Schmidt Peterson Motorsports). The latter in that quartet is a Russian former World Series by Renault champ, and the story of his test was reported by RACER earlier this week.
Meanwhile the current IndyCar fan base – at least the relative few who pay attention to the Mazda Road to Indy ladder – await the first IndyCar tests for Indy Lights top five finishers Sage Karam, Gabby Chaves and Peter Dempsey. Carlos Munoz has already been announced for Andretti Autosport, and Jack Hawksworth has tested for Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing.
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MRTI: Road America kicks off hectic six-week stretch of action
By Tony DiZinnoJun 20, 2017, 3:28 PM EDT
Photo: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, LLC Photography
The full Mazda Road to Indy presented by Cooper Tires ladder is on display this weekend at Road America for six more races that kick off a busy six-week stretch of action. The three series race four times in the next six weekends.
After Road America this weekend, the Indy Lights Presented by Cooper Tires and Cooper Tires USF2000 Championship Powered by Mazda series also race at Iowa and Toronto back-to-back weekends in July; these two and Pro Mazda Championship Presented by Cooper Tires are all in action at Mid-Ohio.
In total, there are 19 races to run over the next six weeks (7 Indy Lights, 7 USF2000, 5 Pro Mazda) that will go a long ways towards determining the champions who will receive the Mazda Motorsports Advancement Scholarships to the next level at year’s end.
With the top six drivers separated by only 30 points and the top eight by only 49 points, the Indy Lights Presented by Cooper Tires title is fully wide open.
Thus far Kyle Kaiser has used consistency to move to the top for Juncos Racing, with finishes between first and ninth in all seven races thus far. His first win of the year came at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course; he enters Road America, where he finished sixth both races last year, with a 14-point lead over Nico Jamin (151-137).
Jamin may have concerns over ultimate power this weekend, having been hamstrung a bit on top-end both at last month’s Freedom 100 and at a recent Road America test. Still, the Andretti Autosport driver has both his wins this year on permanent road courses – at Barber and IMS – and will be keen to add to that this weekend.
Colton Herta sits third in points with 129, 22 back of Kaiser, after a roller coaster debut season with Andretti/Steinbrenner Racing. The talented teenager has alternated between booms and bust with two wins, a second, and four finishes of 10th or worse. Some issues haven’t been of his own doing, but he needs a consistent weekend here.
Two more Americans, Aaron Telitz and Neil Alberico, are tied for fourth with 122 points. Telitz, the Birchwood, Wis. native, enters looking for another home race high after sweeping this weekend in Pro Mazda last year. He’s also with a team, Belardi Auto Racing, which won the first race here last year with Zach Veach. Alberico’s parlayed consistent finishes into a top-five spot in his sophomore season. The cool Californian looks to join teammate Matheus Leist as a winner for Carlin this season.
Leist comes to Road America sixth in points with 121 and with a lot of track time in the last month-plus. He made his IndyCar test debut last week, fresh off winning the Freedom 100 at Indy last month, and also has tested here in a Lights car. Another good weekend here could pay distinct dividends for his longer-term prospects.
At 46 and 49 points back, respectively, Santiago Urrutia (Belardi with SPM) and Zachary Claman De Melo (Carlin) have outside chances to keep their title hopes alive – but must get rolling here. Both have runner-up finishes on their scorecard this year but have been dogged by inconsistency.
Of the remaining six drivers entered, all bar rookie Ryan Norman have prior MRTI race experience at Road America. Norman and Herta have tested here though ahead of the weekend.
The pair of Indy Lights races are at 12 p.m. Saturday and 8:45 a.m. Sunday; Indy Lights TV coverage from Road America airs at 11:30 a.m. ET on Sunday on NBCSN, as the lead-in to the Verizon IndyCar Series race.
PRO MAZDA
The two-horse race for the Pro Mazda Championship Presented by Cooper Tires championship heats up this weekend at Road America. Anthony Martin (Cape Motorsports) swept St. Petersburg while Victor Franzoni (Juncos Racing) responded with a sweep at the Indy road course. Franzoni holds a six-point lead, 116-110, heading into this weekend’s action.
Team Pelfrey’s TJ Fischer is the only other driver with a realistic title shot. The Californian has finished on the podium in all four races with three third places and a second. At 25 points back, he’s not out of it; Telitz overcame a 55-point deficit last year starting with a Road America sweep, but he’ll need a bit of help from the two drivers in front of him to make it happen.
A further 20 points back of Fischer, 10 points cover fourth-placed Carlos Cunha to seventh-placed Phillippe Denes. Cunha, Denes, Nikita Lastochkin and Sting Ray Robb have been consistent top-five finishers but not threatened the leaders thus far.
There’s 10 other drivers in an enhanced 17-car field. Noteworthy there is the return of Max Hanratty, a Milwaukee native, with ArmsUp Motorsports while Kris Wright makes his series debut with JDC Motorsports, moving on after parting ways with John Cummiskey Racing in USF2000.
Pro Mazda races at 1:35 p.m. on Friday and 2:05 p.m. on Saturday.
USF2000
With a 60-point lead and a five-race win streak, the only questions for Team USA Scholarship winner and thus far USF2000’s most dominant driver Oliver Askew are how soon can he clinch the title and how many races he can win consecutively. The talented Floridian has been a cut above the rest this year with Cape Motorsports in all aspects, and will look to add to his season long tour de force this weekend. Only Robert Megennis has defeated him this season, doing so at the season opener in St. Petersburg.
Second place could be up for grabs as Rinus VeeKay, Kaylen Frederick and Parker Thompson are separated by just 28 points. None has won yet this year although all have been regular podium finishers; Dutch rookie VeeKay leading Pabst Racing’s charge, Baltimore teenager Frederick impressing regularly with Team Pelfrey despite a disqualification at Indy that was devastating from a title standpoint, and Canadian veteran Thompson looking to break through for Exclusive Autosport’s first USF2000 win. Thompson won in F1600 competition at the Canadian Grand Prix weekend, which was a huge confidence booster for him and the Exclusive team.
Elsewhere there’s a bit of disappointment this weekend with a reduced, 18-car grid, including the absences of three drivers in the top-10 in points owing to financial straits.
All of Dakota Dickerson (fifth, Newman Wachs Racing), Luke Gabin (seventh, Exclusive Autosport) and Ayla Agren (ninth, Team Pelfrey) are no-shows for the weekend and only NWR, with Darren Keane moving over from BENIK, answers the bell among those cars this weekend.
The field hit a high of 24 cars at the Barber weekend but cars not present this weekend include Gabin’s No. 91 car, Agren’s No. 82 car, the two BENIK entries (Nos. 31 and 32), the two John Cummiskey Racing entries (Nos. 33 and 34), and the remaining Newman Wachs cars (Nos. 37 and 38) which have all run in earlier events this season. David Malukas (No. 79 BN Racing) and Jayson Clunie (No. 93 Exclusive Autosport) continue for a second weekend after making their season debuts at Indy.
USF2000 races at 11:45 a.m. on Friday and 1:10 p.m. on Saturday.
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Up (2009) Movie Online With English Subtitles
Up Movie Information.
Carl Fredricksen spent his entire life dreaming of exploring the globe and experiencing life to its fullest. But at age 78, life seems to have passed him by, until a twist of fate (and a persistent 8-year old Wilderness Explorer named Russell) gives him a new lease on life.
Director: Bob Peterson(co-director), Pete Docter
Actors: Bob Peterson, Christopher Plummer, Delroy Lindo, Ed Asner, Jerome Ranft, John Ratzenberger, Jordan Nagai
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Home Health Care Frontline Heroes Office Optimistic Outlook for a Prosperous 2021
Frontline Heroes Office
Optimistic Outlook for a Prosperous 2021
By Sheikh Sultan bin Tahnoon Al Nahyan, Chairman of the Board of the Frontline Heroes Office:
Sheikh Sultan bin Tahnoon Al Nahyan, Chairman of the Board of the Frontline Heroes Office
Last year has been long and challenging for the vast majority of us and we have seen so many heroes, across different sectors work tirelessly to curb the effects of the pandemic.
Looking ahead, 2021 marks the build-up to the UAE’s Golden Jubilee, a moment that marks collective optimism for our shared future whilst maintaining the knowledge that life will never again be quite the same, and nor do we want it to.
In the midst of chaos, the pandemic brought with it clarity and a wealth of experience, and what a lost opportunity it would be if we as a nation reverted back to life as we lived it pre-pandemic, and we were to overlook our most invaluable guardians who have put their personal health at risk to protect the lives of citizens and residents of the UAE
Throughout 2021 and thereafter, the Frontline Heroes Office will continue to go beyond listening to the concerns of frontline professionals by creating opportunities for us all to celebrate our national heroes to ensure that they will never be unsung again.. We invite all government entities, businesses, and social support groups to unite with us to develop new programmes that support and provide for our frontline heroes.
The Office will continue its mandate of finding nation-wide solutions to ensure a prosperous and stable future for our frontline heroes. Through various upcoming initiatives, we aim to address essential needs for our heroes and their children across multiple areas such as higher education, mental and psychological wellbeing, housing and healthcare.
When the Frontline Heroes Office was established in July by Presidential Decree under the Chairmanship of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, two central imperatives were evident.
The first is that as a nation we must recognise, celebrate and support our frontline heroes and their families. We need to understand the unique circumstances and challenges they face when asked day-in and day-out to put their personal safety at risk for the greater societal good. And we need to unite to help alleviate the stresses they endure, to best enable them to deliver the service and protection we ask of them.
The second imperative is that we need to continuously invest in, develop, train and maintain a world-class emergency and disaster management network that is always ready to respond and protect us from all types of potential emergency situations.
While forming the Frontline Heroes Office, we started by listening and learning. We wanted to hear directly from our frontline professionals about the challenges and stresses they faced and what we could do to help alleviate them.
We built the principle of partnerships into the ethos of the Office because we saw a great opportunity to harness the strength and expertise of an incredibly wide range of resources across our government, business community and social services sector to deliver immediate support for our frontline heroes, while investing in a sustainable emergency preparedness and response network.
Most recently we launched the new Jaheziya emergency response preparedness and training programme. This best-in-class training initiative was developed in partnership with the Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak Volunteer Programme and a group of prominent US and UK disaster management institutions. It will provide internationally accredited critical care and life-saving certification that will contribute to the UAE’s ability to maintain a sustainable network of highly trained frontline professionals to protect our nation and its people in the face of any future emergency.
Several partnerships have directly addressed the concerns put forward by frontline heroes, for example:
With Emirates Foundation and the Ministry of Community Development, we rolled out an innovative new mental health support initiative, addressing one of the highest priorities our frontline heroes told us they need.
With the Ministry of Education, we launched Hayyakum to provide scholarships to more than 2,000 children of frontline heroes that extend throughout their education in the UAE.
With Daman, we launched an AED 20 million programme to upgrade health insurance plans for the 10,000 lowest earning frontline heroes and their families as well as to provide 2,500 frontline professionals with mental health insurance coverage.
And through partnerships with a wide range of groups including the Abu Dhabi Sports Council, Etisalat, Du, the tourism boards of Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah and Umm Al-Quwain, and the National Behavioural Rewards Programme – Fazaa, we introduced a diverse series of initiatives. These programmes help address the physical health and wellbeing of our frontline heroes, better enabling them to stay connected to their families in the UAE and abroad in addition to providing a series of benefits and rewards in recognition of their dedication and commitment in service to the UAE.
It is through the most difficult of times that we truly learn what we are made of as a society. We have witnessed incredible acts of kindness, and unity as friends, neighbours and total strangers have stepped up to support and help each other.
Nowhere have we seen such resilience, commitment and courage as we have from our more than 90,000 frontline professionals and volunteers who worked so hard and risked so much to protect the health and wellbeing of us all.
It is because of these true national heroes that we are so well prepared to enter 2021 and our Golden Jubilee with great optimism for our future. We are poised to realise the ambitious vision the leaders of the UAE have set forth for the next 50 years of this great nation.
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Star Trek: The Art of Juan Ortiz Preview Event #PaleyCenter
November 24, 2013 minglemediatvnetwork Leave a comment
Star Trek: The Art of Juan Ortiz Preview Event #PaleyCenter, a set on Flickr.
Mingle Media TV’s Red Carpet Report host Brogyn Gage were invited to come out to cover the Los Angeles premiere gallery exhibition of Star Trek: the Art of Juan Ortiz at the Paley Center for Media in Los Angeles.
About Star Trek: The Original Series
Star Trek: The Original Series occupies a rarefied place in popular culture and continues to be a force in all facets of media. Artist Juan Ortiz’s groundbreaking effort to personify each of the series’ 79 episodes, and the original pilot, through a collection of original art posters embodies his passion for the series, the transformational Sixties, and the often visceral reaction generated by each episode.
Get the Story from the Red Carpet Report Team – follow us on Twitter and Facebook at:
twitter.com/TheRedCarpetTV
About The Paley Center for Media:
The Paley Center for Media seeks to preserve the past, illuminate the present, and envision the future through the lens of media. With the nation’s foremost public archive of television, radio, and Internet programming, the Paley Center produces programs and forums for the public, industry professionals, thought leaders, and the creative community to explore the evolving ways in which we create, consume, and share news and entertainment. In an era of unprecedented change, the Paley Center advances the understanding of media and its impact on our lives. The Paley Center for Media was founded in 1975 by William S. Paley, a pioneering innovator in the industry. For more information, please visitwww.paleycenter.org.
For more of Mingle Media TV’s Red Carpet Report coverage, please visit our website and follow us on Twitter and Facebook here:
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Follow our host Brogyn on Twitter at twitter.com/BrogynMarie
#redcarpetreportbook signingBrogyn Gagecelebritiescelebrity interviewsgallery exhibitinterviewsMingle Media TVminglemediatvPaley Center for MediaRed CarpetRed carpet reportStar Trek: the Art of Juan OrtizStar Trek: The Original Series
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Back to Neuro Presentations and Publications
Impact of Cerebrospinal Fluid Filtration on Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Clearance: A Computational Fluid Dynamics Study
June 25, 2019 - Summer Biomechanics, Bioengineering, and Biotransport Conference, Seven Springs, Pennsylvania - Mohammadreza Khani, Lucas R. Sass, et al
Summer Biomechanics, Bioengineering, and Biotransport Conference, Seven Springs, Pennsylvania
Mohammadreza Khani, Department of Biological Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
Lucas R. Sass, Department of Biological Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
M. Keith Sharp, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Louisville, Louisville, TN, USA
Aaron R. McCabe, Minnetronix Neuro, Inc. St. Paul, MN, USA
Laura M. Zitella Verbick, Minnetronix Neuro, Inc. St. Paul, MN, USA
Shivanand P. Lad, Department of Neurological Surgery, Duke University, Raleigh, NC, USA
Bryn A. Martin*, Department of Biological Engineering, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is a severe and often-fatal event in which blood is released into the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) due to intracranial insult, ruptured intracranial aneurysm, and/or other head trauma. Early and rapid filtration of blood and blood breakdown byproducts post-SAH may reduce the incidence of stroke, cerebral vasospasm. The present study objective was to formulate a computational model to see the impact of the NeurapheresisTM system on CSF flow velocities, steady-streaming, and subarachnoid blood clearance by comparing it to a case with lumbar drain only.
Neurapheresis therapy involves aspiration of CSF from the lumbar spinal subarachnoid space (SAS), filtration of blood and/or other pathogens specific to the malady, and then return of filtered CSF to the SAS at the thoracic spine, via redundant fenestrations (to avoid clogging or blockages) in the dual-lumen catheter (Figure 1).
A multiphase computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model of the SAS was built using ANSYS Fluent 19.1. Spinal geometry was defined by our previously developed model [1]. A detailed intracranial CSF space geometry was added to the spinal SAS based on high-resolution MRI (Figure 3). A dual-lumen catheter geometry was added to the posterior SSS at the T2-L2 level and positioned at the midline (Figure 1a). The final computational mesh comprised 14.8 M cells. Flow boundary conditions reproduced subject-specific non-uniform CSF flow along the spine (Figure 1b) by imposing non-uniform dura deformation [2]. CSF was considered to be incompressible with a density of 993.8 kg/m3 and Newtonian with a viscosity of 0.693 mpa·s. To visualize steady-streaming along the spinal axis due to convective acceleration of oscillatory flow within an eccentric annulus, the cyclic mean sagittal velocity, Uz-mean, at each node was calculated. This steady-streaming velocity field was then held constant (‘‘frozen flow field’’) to compute hemorrhage clearance [3].
Blood was modeled using a fluorescein tracer in the bulk fluid phase. An initial uniform tracer concentration of 10% was assumed. Neurapheresis system aspiration flow was set at 2.0 ml/min and return to 1.8 ml/min, for retentate of 0.2 ml/min (Figure 1c). Lumbar drain CSF removal is 0.2 ml/min from the aspiration port.
Maximum Re was 180 and located within the cervical spine (Figure 2a). The sagittal Uz-mean velocity profiles showed a region of caudally directed (↓) steady-streaming in the posterior SSS in the middle thoracic spine and in the anterior SSS in the cervical spine (Figure 2b). Average steady-streaming velocity for Neurapheresis therapy and lumbar drain was 0.19 and 0.09 (mm/s), respectively. Visualization of unsteady CSF velocity contours in the sagittal plane showed that peak CSF velocities occurred in the cervical spine (Figure 2c). CSF velocity profiles near the aspiration and return ports showed that most of the flow into and out of the domain originated from the first two holes at the return and the aspiration port (Figure 2c1-2).
3D Tracer concentration contours demonstrated that the lumbar and thoracic SSS were largely cleared of blood after 24 hours of Neurapheresis therapy (Figure 4a). The spatial-temporal concentration plots showed relatively rapid removal of blood from the thoracic SSS after 1 hr of filtration. 24 hours after Neurapheresis therapy, less than 10% of the initial blood concentration remained in the lumbar and thoracic spine and more than 70% was cleared from the cervical spine. In comparison, lumbar drain had a much lower impact on blood concentration reduction. After 24-hours of lumbar drain, blood concentration in the thoracic spine decreased to ~7% compared to <1% under Neurapheresis therapy (Figure 4b).
A subject-specific CFD model of the entire CSF system was formulated and applied to study the impact of Neurapheresis therapy on tracer removal from CSF. Neurapheresis therapy was found to significantly increase tracer clearance. The CFD model presented offers a platform to understand intrathecal device behavior as well as envision alternative Neurapheresis system protocols and devices. CFD results were verified with in vitro model (see paper #420, Lucas Sass)
1. Sass, L.R., et al., Fluids Barriers CNS, 14(1): p. 36, 2017.
2. Khani, M., et al., J Biomech Eng, 140(8), 2018.
3. Kuttler, A., et al., J of Pharmacokinetics and pharmacodyn, 37(6): p. 629-644, 2010.
Neurapheresis is a trademark of Minnetronix Neuro, Inc.
Contact Minnetronix Neuro for more information about our technologies or how we can partner.
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RBOC: Emerging from the chaos edition (and obsession update)
Finished lecturing for the week today at two (students much more engaged today, thankfully). Three hours of stupor afterwards as I stare dumbly at my desk, the ordering of which has been neglected due to the holidays, the beginning of term, and the premiere of Spooks 9. Slowly getting the urge to put stuff in order and the gradually abating piles of stuff on the desktop calm me, so I will attempt to sort out the Armitage debris accumulating in my mind here and hope it has a similar effect.
Kath (Shirley Henderson) and Steven (Richard Armitage) in Frozen, as Kath gets Steven to help her view the pilfered security videotape with her sister’s image on it. Source: Richard Armitage Central Gallery. Look how clean Steven’s desk is in this cap; nothing like mine. This allows Kath to find the evidence of her sister’s relationship with him very easily later. I’m sure there’s more than one piece of incriminating evidence in my office, but good luck ever finding it!
Armitage watching since September 6:
Saw Malice Aforethought for the first time and just loved it! For pronunciation mavens, the diphthongs in Mr. Armitage’s long “o” vowels are so pronounced that they occasionally sound like long “a”s. He says “gaying” instead of “going.” Fantastic. Will have more to say. Armitage makes Bill Chatford so deliciously evil.
Read Dawn French’s autobiography, Dear Fatty. Delightful. She says she developed a real crush on Mr. Armitage. Can’t imagine why. She also includes him in a long list of “liptastic moments” and describes him as “shy, giggling, loving” as a kisser. In fact, the exact opposite of how Bill Chatford would osculate. Aside from that information, though, what I absolutely love about this book is her fearlessness and brutal honesty all the way through the narrative — something I’d like to emulate — which is what saves the rougher moments of her focus on the comedic from being mean, or rather, she puts herself under the same lens that she uses for everyone else. Wonderful summary review here, though keep in mind at the date of that writing Ms. French was still married to her husband (as of this writing they have separated with plans for a divorce).
Finally unpacked and watched DVD of Frozen. Intriguing film (as you can guess, I greatly enjoyed the “what is real?” elements of the plot), and very visually appealing, all of those long shots of northern landscapes. Strong performances all round; I only remember having seen Shirley Henderson in Harry Potter (Moaning Myrtle, which is blatant typecasting) and The Way We Live Now (Marie Melmotte, a truly repellent role because of the blatant antisemitism in the original book and the series’ largely unironic stance toward it); I note from her imdb page that she’s been in a lot of other stuff I’ve seen but I don’t remember her at all), and like her better here than in either of those roles; love Roshan Seth in a very troubling role, here, too. Obviously, Steven was not a huge role, but I can see what the attraction would have been here; once again, it’s “who is this person really?” Although I feel that Armitage overplays the shifty eye movements in the scene where Kath asks him whether he knew her sister (at 0:55 here), I can see why — the script doesn’t send us in that direction by any other means, and the discovery of his lie later would thus have been highly implausible for the viewer. I love films that show rather than telling, but this one, which is heavily reliant on pictures and otherwise narratively laconic, needs the tension created by our curiosity about what exactly he is hiding in order to sustain our attention to the end. He makes it up to us in that shattering scene where he tries without success to speak to Kath through the mail slot of her house door.
Several more watches of all of Spooks 8. Notified that the DVDs have been sent from Great Britain, so awaiting them although I’ve heard from commentators that the extras are disappointing.
Ordered Peter Ackroyd’s Blake biography, which arrived today. Took this step mostly because RAFrenzy did. (In case you haven’t noticed, I’ve kind of imprinted on her. Girl crush!) Hated Blake in college, leafing through the book has me hoping there is a larger purpose here. Is Mr. Armitage rehabilitating my rather philistine attitude toward certain classics in British literature? I’m really rather a curmudgeon in this regard. I like what I like. Stay tuned.
Rumors about Mr. Armitage’s potential role in Captain America abound. I find myself basically neutral to slightly skeptical about this as a career step — except maybe as a networking opportunity. However, if Mr. Armitage really wants to play a villain, and speaking of classic works of the English canon that I DO like, I read an intriguing report that Paradise Lost is to be filmed soon. I would LOVE to see Mr. Armitage as Lucifer. I’d definitely cast him. He could also play Mephistopheles in Goethe’s Faust if he wanted to. Could be breathtaking. Quasi-Nazi gangsters with thick fake German accents, eat your hearts out. Nobody’s as evil as the Prince of Darkness. He could also play Faust, that would be fine with me. I’m sure he could learn the German quickly enough. Lots easier than Russian. Somehow I suspect this is going nowhere. But it would be great. So many great titles for blog entires: “Justifying G-d’s Ways To Man: Armitage Theologus” (about the work of dogmatic theology Mr. Armitage will write after taking the role — wouldn’t that be great?) or “Service: Standing, or Waiting?” (about the annoyances of holding still for makeup).
Talked the person who infected me with Armitagemania in the first place into sending my spare postcard to the Bring North & South to Masterpiece campaign. This was actually a funny conversation, will probably blog about it separately later. It’s not too late to join your voice to ours; click link above if you’re interested for more details. All postcards now gone from my desk.
Spent a lot of time thinking about the implications of the portrait of Armitage in last week’s Sunday Times, but have still read very little of the Spooks 9 series opener publicity because every time I have so far I’ve learned something I wish I didn’t know.
Learned how to use Handbrake and iMovie to create and edit cuts from Mr. Armitage’s work. This is fantastic — will be able to create my own illustrations of points in acting posts. This should make writing them a great deal more fun. Also learned how to use iMovie to voice over video — this could also be potentially useful.
With help of fellow Armitagemaniac who shall remain nameless, learned what BitTorrent is and DLed Spooks 9.1. Now taking responsibility for my own illegal filesharing. After recording my initial reactions, there are two bits that I just can’t stop watching. Also had what I think is my first explicit sex dream ever involving Lucas North (till now these have been dreams involving cuddling / comfort, except for one where I dreamt I was Lucas North); is this a sign that the character has taken a decisive maturing step in 9.1 from wounded animal to whole personality? Reminder to any commentators not to discuss 9.1 plot elements in the comments — keep your responses vague. Is Lucas grown up enough to participate actively in my sex dreams yet?
Having mastered Radio Downloader, again thanks to RAFrenzy, now have own copies of Symphony of a City and interviews on the Greg James Show and Loose Ends. For some reason can’t bring myself to relisten to Symphony again, but will do so soon as I have a related post in mind.
Finally uploaded all of Convenient Marriage to my computer and hope to listen to it during upcoming grading / editing marathon.
Why does so much of this list read as if I’m in an entry-level course on software for media uses?
On one especially bad day, a greedy gulping of The Impressionists, episode 1. Needed the colors, the smiles, the panoply of expressions on Monet’s face.
As far as back story goes, I am now up to Spooks 2.8. I have to say that these early scripts are excellent –2.5, the EERIE training exercise, being a case in point– but I find Matthew MacFadyen’s performances alternately tedious and underwhelming. I apologize to any of his fans who are reading here. Please feel free to mobilize the comments to alert me to things I have missed. Seriously. I’d like to know what people see in him. Perhaps it’s that the Tom Quinn character is written poorly. Relieved I only have four more episodes with him to watch.
And on early Spooks, and the Sarah Caulfield anti-Americanism issue, and on Malice Aforethought, I finally figured out that Megan Dodds is actually American! I didn’t realize at first that Christine Dale and Madeleine Cranmere were played by the same actress, but I found her English voice in Malice completely convincing (didn’t notice she was American), while I heard Christine saying some stuff that made her sound British. I think I placed Christine as a northern Californian and gave Ms. Dodds as Christine a 95% on the American accent. That’s a disturbing error on my part! Well, Dodds is a Californian, anyway. Does she sound English to actual English people? BTW I think the scripting of Christine Dale is a lot more coherent than that of Sarah Caulfield.
Way behind on reading fanfic, and a lot of what I am reading at the moment is behind a password, but wanted to note that khandy updated her John Porter fic, Absolution, this week.
Angie has turned a joke Ann Marie and I made about sl–h fic into a new genre: sloth fic. Explanation here. Examples here. I love this stuff. I really giggled hard reading both of these. And I have never even eaten a boiled peanut myself.
This is the fanvid I am now watching compulsively. I even bought the music to it today. That I could pay money for a Lady G*g* CD frightens me a great deal; I do not subscribe to “baby when it’s love if it’s not rough it isn’t fun” and I do not want to list her among my collateral attractions, though recently she’s attracted the attention of my beloved New Yorker and I know people who think she’s a real artist and not just a master of pastiche. But the video is so great: delicateblossom captures and retimes so many of Mr. Armitage’s best moments in RH so that we can look at them closely, all with that relentlessly simple drum track underneath them and the vaguely melancholic refrain with the tag that drives us back to the verses. Beautiful video to a song that I reluctantly must admit I find addictive.
And I should mention, since it’s noteworthy, that I celebrated three religious holidays with little to no interference from Armitagemania. It’s just so hard to imagine him in that setting that even my rather forceful powers of imagination become shaky. It’s good to know that there are places where thoughts of him can’t go with me (the other one being the lecture room of the university I visited this summer to hear a long academic lecture in German. I could imagine him in the room, but figured he’d be restless and thus I liberated him in my mind to go sit in a café. But my imagination couldn’t even get him in the door of a synagogue. Don’t know why, since Harry Kennedy married a vicar, but all in all, I see this incapacity on my part as a good thing).
~ by Servetus on September 24, 2010.
Posted in Armitage on Armitage, audiobooks, Bill Chatford, Captain America, career, Claude Monet, collateral attractions, Dawn French, evil, fanfic, fans, fantasy, fanvids, Frozen, gratitude, Guy of Gisborne, Harry Kennedy, heterosexual utopias, John Porter, joy, loss, Lucas North, Malice Aforethought, me, North & South, off topic, reality, redemption, Richard Armitage, Robin Hood, Sarah Caulfield, silliness, Spooks, Steven, Symphony of a City, The Convenient Marriage, The Impressionists, the real Armitage, Vicar of Dibley, voice work
83 Responses to “RBOC: Emerging from the chaos edition (and obsession update)”
Why, thank you evah so kindly for showin’ some love to Sloth Fiction *grin* I really do have fun writing those. And fan fic should be fun and creative and imaginative, n’est-ce pas?
I have a confession to make. Watching the wonderful RA vids from delicateblossom, romana55 and principessa in particular using Lady Gaga’s songs are a true guilty pleasure for me. And “Poker Face’ by DB is one that I have downloaded, too and watched repeatedly. *grin* Her stuff is s-o-o-o addictive. She actually has quite a good voice, unlike, say, Ke$ha, whose songs I also find catchy much to my immense shame.
Well, back to packing for the cruise. I can’t board that ship fast enough.
angieklong said this on September 24, 2010 at 2:50 am | Reply
Happy packing and bon voyage — I’ll miss you. DON’T read your email from on board. 🙂
servetus said this on September 24, 2010 at 7:13 pm | Reply
Phew! Marathon day at work,it’s lasting longer than I wished, too. Just popped on to say I’ll miss you, too, and I am definitely planning to go OFF the Grid for the next few days . . . that’s why I asked Ali to post my birthday pic at RANet today, so I could ogle Lucas asking if Beth if she is OK, baby, and pretending that blonde head is mine LOL
And never fear, ladies, sloth fiction will return . . . *giggle*
angieklong said this on September 24, 2010 at 8:35 pm | Reply
That picture just makes me want to curl up in a little ball and squeal. Happy Birthday ahead of time. 🙂
@angie,
I have got to read the sloth fiction! Haven’t had a chance to do that yet.
@servetus, I’m glad you’re enjoying yourself. 😀 I’m far from a novice with software (or hardware), but I’ve had to learn a few things myself, and I’m still pretty much a video virgin. I’ve only made one video, and that was for a family thang. It just about did me in, but then, I waited until the last minute to do it. Oh, and I did start another video for something completely unrelated to RA, and it remains unfinished. I should have known I had no real inspiration. LOL!
About Lady Gaga, the Little SOs freaked out when they discovered she was on my iPod, and I LOVE that! Keeps ’em on their toes. ROFLOL! She actually has some very interesting songs despite the sometimes crude lyrics.
And don’t you love that DelicateBlossom? She’s one of my favorites. Hope she knows that. 😀
RAFrenzy said this on September 24, 2010 at 3:49 am | Reply
It’s not my natural mode of creating thinking / speaking, and that really intrigues me. Doubt I’ll be any good at it, either, but am going to give it a shot.
One more thing. When I was in college, I thought Blake was a goofball. I’m reading that book so I can figure out if it applies to Lucas. Unfortunately, I started it a few days ago, and only read about 75 pages. I need to finish it!
we’ll see. I am always up for learning something.
I haven’t seen “Frozen” yet but I enjoyed Shirley’s performance in “The Taming of the Shrew” on the same Shakespeare Retold DVD that Mr. Armitage plays a role in Macbeth.
She was also a friend of Bridget Jones (of the famous Diary).
I would love to read Dawn French’s biography! I am not surprised that she liked his kisses ** swooning**!
I have become a fan of Lady Gaga through RA fanvids and that Poker Face one is definitely one of my most favourite of all!
phylly3 said this on September 24, 2010 at 4:00 am | Reply
Yes I like The Taming of the Shrew too, love Rufus Sewell.
kaprekar said this on September 24, 2010 at 4:20 am | Reply
will have to check that out.
I looked at her list of roles on imdb and she was also in Trainspotting. I saw that and BJ and have no memory of her at all.
The DF biography is quite entertaining and nonetheless brutally honest in points.
“The Fame” is on its way here.
Thank you for the plug on the fan fic. Spooks 9 episode one was wonderful. I wanted to say The Gruinard Project has become a featured book on Wattpad and I’m sure that is no small part to people who chat on here and have left such lovely comments.
Khandy said this on September 24, 2010 at 6:26 am | Reply
I can’t always comment as quickly as I’d like but I look forward to reading anything you write.
I would love to read some slothfic! 😀 Those comments made me giggle.
“Frozen” – I just found myself tremendously bored watching it!
Traxy said this on September 24, 2010 at 9:40 am | Reply
It’s definitely an “arty” film with a very slow pace.
I was not a fan of Frozen. I FF to the RA bits, the rest I found to be self indulgent Flim school stuff. Some days, I feel like we are a group of HS girls sitting at the same lunch table gossiping about the “hot” guy in Spanish class. And reading French’s discription of “kissing” said crush made me feel like that even more. She is one lucky girl!!! She got PAID to kiss RA!!! Love the giggling part.
These posts always make me laugh, I like how you need to be accountable for your fandom!!!
@Rob said this on September 24, 2010 at 12:40 pm | Reply
I loved those long shots of coastlines. The shots from underneath the ice were less compelling for me. But I did like it, even as I acknowledge that it is “film schooly.”
Mr. Armitage said of the N&S as well that he and Daniela giggled a lot. It’s a nice picture.
I’m trying to be accountable to me, too! I keep a diary like this for my real “work” as well.
I miss Guy of G!!! He was so much fun.
Me too. Potentially not as much as Natalie and Angie do, though.
I really liked Matthew MacFadyen on Spooks and was gutted when he left – it felt like a different show for a while. Now everyone is used to the leads moving on, it’s not such an issue.
kaprekar said this on September 24, 2010 at 4:01 pm | Reply
RAFrenzy said this on September 24, 2010 at 4:05 pm | Reply
So tell me, what is it?
I don’t know if it was him or the writing. BTW, I was not a fan of his from Pride and Prejudice. I thought he was wooden in that, but I still invested in him in Spooks, which I watched after P&P. Maybe I should go back and rewatch to see what it was I liked so much about Spooks.
I suppose, as we learn from the Armitage discourse on this topic, one actor’s woodenness is another’s restraint. I haven’t seen that P&P, as when I want to watch P&P I go for Colin Firth. What strikes me about MM in Spooks up to 2.8 is not so much his extremely limited emotional range (there are other actors with that problem who we see all the time), it’s that it doesn’t really extend effectively to the hardness that the script constantly forces him to display. I.e., his closed off facial expression makes it hard for me to believe that his hardness is more than an act. I found this especially problematic in the episode I just saw (Tom infiltrates the military to stop a strike), in which the contrast between him and Peter Firth couldn’t have been greater. I was truly afraid of Harry’s wrath in that last scene.
There was something about Tom that I liked better than Adam Carter when he came in. Adam rubbed me the wrong way, but Tom… I could somehow relate to him? And I have seen Matthew MacFadyen in quite a few other roles and I think he’s brilliant. Death At A Funeral, Criminal Justice, Robin Hood (as the Sheriff of Nottingham), The Pillars of the Earth…
kadamanja said this on September 24, 2010 at 7:19 pm | Reply
I’m just getting to the Adam Carter episodes, so I guess I’ll see. And since everyone is talking about Pillars of the Earth right now, I have to put that on the list!
I have seen those clips a couple years back but completely forgot about it! I need to watch the whole thing LOL!!!
kadamanja said this on September 25, 2010 at 4:42 am | Reply
I’ve seen him in other things as well. Death at a Funeral, Little Dorrit, In My Father’s Den and the one of my all-time favorites Maybe Baby. ROLFLOL!! If you haven’t seen that, RUN out and get it!
If you don’t mind spoilers, here’s MM’s parts. I cannot watch this without laughing so hard there are tears in my eyes.
The person who infected me with Armitagemania has been pushing Little Dorrit on me for awhile, so I’ll look at that first.
I did not like Little Dorrit, and MM was almost non-existent in it — even when he was in it.
But don’t listen to me, I’m not a Dickens fan.
RAFrenzy said this on September 26, 2010 at 10:58 am | Reply
I watched Little Dorrit on TV and I liked it a lot, re MM in it, I have to confess I was surprised when I saw him because he seemed rather (dare I say it) *stout* to me and I was slightly disappointed (in as much as I cared at all).
Uh Oh, we finally disagree on something. LOL! I’m just not a Dickens fan. I was forced fed Tale of Two Cities and some others when I was very young, and I hated them. I tried to go back and read some of them again, and I still wasn’t a fan, so some of my dislike for Little Dorrit might be that.
In my experience, Dickens takes on a role in American education about English literature that is completely disproportionate to his actual historical and literary significance. I think we read more Dickens in high school that we did Shakespeare. It has also left me unenthused about watching Dickens on screen.
servetus said this on September 26, 2010 at 4:28 pm
And Ewan Proclaimer (Tom Hollander) nearly made me pee my pants from laughing.
I saw Spooks before P&P and when I found out he was playing Darcy I was very surprised. I don’t think that Tom in Spooks is a very easy character to like at first, but as time went by I started to really really like him. When Adam came in I was disappointed because he looked like a male model to me, not really my idea of a spy at all. I find RPJ a bit wooden as an actor, but I think he improved though somewhere in series 3-6 the series did hit a low.
I’m not a MM fan because I think he is the same in all his roles with one exception. Warriers which was about the un peacekeepers in Bosnia. Harsh brutal but brilliant.
Khandy said this on September 24, 2010 at 8:48 pm | Reply
I did like MM in P&P. He did some subtle things that worked for me and as a Collin Firth fan, I was prepared to hate it. But I ddin’t. I did love the British ver of Death At Furneral, the American ver just wasn’t as funny. I actually watch that P&P all the time. The cinametography is amazing. Joe Wright is a brillant director.
@Rob said this on September 24, 2010 at 8:56 pm | Reply
I guess I’ll just have to try to open my mind further 🙂
servetus said this on September 24, 2010 at 10:52 pm | Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqidX_5ZsLg Check this out…
OK, I just looked at this. I need to ask a question before I respond: will you be crushed if I say I don’t like it and why?
(I ask because MM is way off topic for this blog. And if you’ll be crushed, it’s not worth it to me over MM, about varying interpretations of whom I care very little.)
I would not be crushed at all what so ever. I am not attached to MM. I really like the cinametraphy, the way the director sets up shots, each scene is a like a painting come to life. I also like the music. The film is beautiful.
I agree that Firtth is the semminal Darcy, I would not argue that.
I really liked how he stumbles over “I love you.” It was sweet. But let’s hear why you didn’t like it.
OK, here goes. To some extent this is not fair, for the following reasons: I’m looking at one scene out of context; I really like the Firth P&P, not least because of Jennifer Ehle, and this scene suggests that Keira Knightly was miscast — as she doesn’t give MM much to play back against from what I can see here; I am not familiar with MM’s oeuvre beyond Spooks. That said:
on the positive side, he’s sexy, and he really looks shaken here. However, I don’t like: his stock lip movement. He moves his mouth back to the same position after every utterance (see this in Spooks, too) and it tends to undercut the emotionality of the scene for me; too much fluttering of eyelids. Mr. Armitage does this too, but one usually has the feeling that Armitage is doing it against his will, whereas here, it seems undertaken intentionally, and indeed, as the emotionality of the scene increases toward the end he stops doing it when one imagines it should be the other way around; I felt like the stumbling around the word “love” that you like was also performed as opposed to natural; and his other major technique for conveying emotionality, rushing the delivery of his lines, was also not appealing to me.
fwiw, ymmv, I still like you, @Rob, and I am willing to have been wrong about this.
I do agree that this is a visually beautiful scene. The staging is gorgeous.
I’m not attracted at all to MM as a man but like him as an actor and he seems to be a lovely person. I think regarding recent developments it is worth asking why RA does not have the career MM has and if he will five years after he has left Spooks. Those two have so much in common and MM is even younger!
Jane said this on September 26, 2010 at 8:37 am | Reply
I would love to hear more of what you think about this. I realize Servetus considers this off-topic, and if she would like us to take this somewhere else, I’ll be happy to put up a tangent piece.
The parallels between those two are spooky to say so. Both with there roles in Spooks, both with their big period drama role that made them a ladies’ favourite. MM’s recent series The Pillars of the Earth partly filmed on the old RH set in Hungary, only to name a few.
Yet MM has managed to make it internationally (without becoming the dreaded “Hollywood star”) whereas RA is just making the very first step with CA. MM has managed to established himself as a character actor who gets the serious parts and is often cast older than he actually is. Even if MM only has a small part you can bet that he (or the production) will get an award. RA still has to achieve this and his current roles don’t really help. I would love to see him where MM is now.
Jane said this on September 26, 2010 at 12:15 pm | Reply
Perhaps we’re forgetting that actors can have different agendas. Richard has expressed a specific wish to have many and varied roles, to stretch his acting muscles. He is also keen to stay in work in an industry where many talented actors are on the dole or in other jobs.
I don’t know much about MM’s career beyond Spooks, but I recently saw him in the acclaimed Little Dorrit series and stopped watching after a couple of episodes, even though I love Dickens and enjoy period dramas. Chacun á son gout!
Success is great, but there’s no single route to the top of the mountain.
MillyMe said this on September 26, 2010 at 2:52 pm | Reply
My friend who infected me with Armitagemania just squees about Little Dorrit, but I don’t know if it’s because of MM.
I think MillyMe has an interesting point about the question of “being in work” — we don’t know, because we don’t know what Mr. Armitage is being offered by way of roles, but it’s true, if you look at the imdb pages, that MM does not seem to take on work just to be working. A decent chunk of what Mr. Armitage has done recently (narrations of documentaries, e.g.) seems to be mostly about continuing to work. We don’t know / have no way of knowing if this is a financial priority for him, or just that he doesn’t like not working.
Particularly in light of things that have happened to me in the last four years, I’d say that knowing what it is you want from your career and continuing to ask yourself about that should be a priority in the life of every professional. Otherwise, given the way work tends to consuming everything else, it’s easy to get off track.
I wonder (in line with what MillyMe says below) about how eager he really is about CA. IMO the evidence about this is rather mixed. Some of his interviews (Reader’s Digest) suggest he’s eager to go; some suggest he’s ready because he think it’s time (the one that says he wants to try it now because he’s not tied down); and then the audiotape of that interview with Donald Stephenson in which he seems to be saying that if he can get the kind of roles he wants he’s happy to stay in Britain.
Really, how I imagine him, and this is *really* just my imagination, given his statements about wanting to get back on stage, is as most happy in London, regularly appearing on stage.
I think Richard seems keen to get back to stage work in the near future. The lovely thing about British actors is that many of the most talented retain an interest in the stage and will appear in plays from time to time, MM and Ripert Penry-Jones being recent examples. Plays do not appear on actors’ IMDb boards so it might seem that they’re working less than is the case.
I really want Richard to do a play, both to be able to see him live and because there is a special magic about the stage for the audience and the actors!
And I want him to get what he wants. Including staying on stage even if that effectively precludes me from seeing his work. Which in some ways might make my life easier. Again extrapolating from my own experiences I think there’d be a lot of benefit to a life lived in a setting that one liked with fulfilling work as opposed to having to jet off for three or six months to far off locations which might be interesting but also take one away from one’s “home.”
I think apart from anything else, being in CA is huge fun. RA likes his boys and their toys stuff and after having done action on a TV budget to go and see it done properly with money and time not being an issue and even being part of the action must be great.
I’m not sure about the stage. I think he really should do it for the sake of his reputation as a serious actor. But he has talked about stage work for ages now and never done it, I suppose because he was offered TV that was better paid. I believe that he loves live acting and would love to return to it but won’t believe that he will really do the Rover until I see an announcement.
Jane said this on September 26, 2010 at 5:32 pm | Reply
One of the S9 publicity articles had him saying that he was going to do the Rover next year, but there were other errors in the article and so I also was suspicious of that piece of information — seemed like they just misunderstood him as they are wont to do.
This is an interesting question from my perspective and touches directly on Mr. Armitage’s career. (i.e., it’s not just “why I don’t like MM’s acting much”), so I am glad to hear a lot more about this.
I was watching RH the movie with russel crowe and MM played the sherif. i had google him bec he looked so diff. i not sure how i took up the MM torch. he’s ok. i just really liked him in P&P.
I haven’t seen that yet.
French and Saunders were a pivotal part of my comedy arsenal growing up. I’m both terribly fond of, and irritated by, Dawn so it would be interesting to read her take on her life and career. I like her charming description of Richard.
Hubby and I are doing a catching up on Spooks. We both realise that we have seen the first series, so perhaps Norwegian tv has shown more of the show I’ve claimed previously. My reaction to Matthew is mixed. I keep comparing him unfavourably to Richard. He had his top off in one episode and he looked fine, but it didn’t generate much excitement for me. I find Tom Quinn sympathetic as a character and really like the Ellie and Maisie storyline which I remember from before. Matthew’s slightly taller than Richard, wears similar clothes as Tom Quinn, however his character doesn’t make an impression on me. I can go away and forget he exists, whereas Lucas haunts me until the next time I see him. When he’s on the screen I’m on red-alert to every gesture, expression or word. It’s the Armitage magic and I’m still at a loss to explain it.
I have dreamt of Richard, but never Lucas so you inspire envy with your Lucas dream!. We record our RA-dreams on Skully’s blog and yours seems a particularly luscious one! 🙂
MillyMe said this on September 25, 2010 at 10:38 am | Reply
My dreams of Mr. Armitage continue to be mostly threatening ones (he tells me he wants me to stop blogging), so I am happy not to be dreaming of him. I am starting to think that if I ever did have a dream in which he were nice to me, it would be a signal that this activity needed to stop. I’ll have to get in the habit of contributing to Scully’s dream posts — I’ve been an intermittent reader there but I am trying to do better.
I’m trying very hard not to write anything that implies that Mr. Armitage is the only good actor in the world. Though he is the one I spend the most time watching. I also should like MM just because he’s a brunette and looks more guy next doorish — and I do like those things. I think he’s good looking, etc. “doesn’t make an impression on me” is a good description of my reaction, too — except I find myself resenting that I am not moved more by his acting in crunch situations, e.g., in the scene with Harry in 2.8, which I just watched.
I have yet to really get into French and Saunders — mostly because I find it irritating. I think this autobio does a lot to explain her — you sort of see how brutal she is about everything. In a way it’s admirable.
Can I suggest, however gently, that unless they’re being tested with scantron sheets, students might not be at all pleased if they knew a professor was attempting to read their work while simultaneously listening to an audiobook? It’s probably a lot pleasanter, but I suspect they hope that attention will be fully focused on their work, and that’s probably reasonable on their parts.
Another anonymous academic said this on September 25, 2010 at 7:18 pm | Reply
No need to be gentle. I think that’s a fair suggestion, and I absolutely agree that students have the right to have fair attention paid to their work and any evaluation I make of it. On the other hand, I suspect that “she isn’t paying enough attention to my work” is not the reaction most of my students have to my commenting and grading. 🙂 Having something “in the background” while grading slows me down, but it also keeps me from marking every single error of grammar, punctuation and syntax, which is what I do when I don’t have sound in the background, and is something that students apparently resent (according to these classes about teaching writing that we are always being sent to).
I can’t agree with this. The test is, I think, whether your students, your department chair, and any parents who are helping to pay for their children’s education would be pleased to learn that a professor graded while listening to an audiobook, or whether they would feel that this isn’t what a professor is paid to do.
If it’s irresistible to comment on grammar, spelling, construction, and so on because there are a lot of problems, pick one medium paragraph that has a lot of problems of this kind, point out all of the problems, in detail, and in your closing comment say “I found a lot of writing mistakes really distracting; it was hard to focus on your content because there were so many of them.” (“Your good content,” if that’s accurate.) “I’ve marked all of the errors of this kind on paragraph X of page 2 you will get a sense of just how often these things come up in this paper; there are similar errors straight through, though. In your next paper, I’d suggest factoring in a lot more time for proofreading and polishing your work, because the errors do contribute to your grade. I’m hoping that your next paper will have a lot fewer errors of these kinds; they count more as the semester goes along. Please let me know if you’d like to talk over a draft with me–I’d be happy to help.” Then keep track of who got this comment. In my experience that often shakes them up. They’re not happy about it when they first read the comment, but that paragraph of errors is pretty good proof that they need to do something, and you’re clearly not going to find and fix everything; that’s their job. They usually calm down and improve a good deal on that front in their next paper.
Paste that into a final comment whenever it’s relevant and you are free to focus on the content instead of the surface level errors. Sit on your hands if you must, and if you write, write marginal comments and the rest of the final comment; you’ve pointed out to the student that there are a lot of distracting errors and what their nature is, which may be news to them, and you’ve made it clear that fixing them is more their task than yours and that it would be a very good thing to work on improving.
Marking papers is the one part of teaching that I mostly hate, and it’s difficult to get the butt in the chair and do it, that’s for sure. But I don’t think the other people in the equation–a boss, students, and people who pay you to teach–would be at ALL pleased if they learned an instructor was grading under those circumstances. Soft music without words, maybe–but not the highly distracting tones of a hunk.
Another anonymous academic said this on September 25, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Reply
And please do ignore my errors above; I re-read it and gave up in despair when I hit the second one.
There are never any points off or other errors for typos on “me + richard.” 🙂 Because I am not giving grades here. Thank heavens.
With respect: While I agree that one should not be distracted while grading, perhaps you would accept that what distracts one too heavily to be an effective grader might not be the same in every case. [Note that the information I offer here suggests that I am real.] I’ve been grading papers since 1994 (and was a peer tutor and writing tutor before that), have been given repeated instruction from professionals on how best to grade, both at this university and others, have taken courses on how to write tests and structure assignments for optimal student success, and in some semesters have graded thousands of papers (in grad school, for instance, where I graded physics classes for humanities majors and had to learn to evaluate by extremely exact standards of comparison). That doesn’t mean I couldn’t do it better; I can think of lots of ways that grading could be made a more useful pedagogical tool if I had time, for instance, to discuss grades with students before giving them. It would also help if I knew ahead of time how a student would react to a particular set of comments and/or grade; as it is I have to guess and thus risk putting my worst foot forward, which is unfortunate and happens occasionally.
Though I am not perfect, I think I have worked out how to do it with sufficient concentration for the task involved, and if the grading serves its specified purpose (identifies errors and deficiencies but also correct information and successes, tells students how to improve their work including specific, practical suggestions that they can undertake immediately, serves as a consistent measure of their performance both in terms of comparison to the work of their peers and improvement across the semester, as well as being non-inflationary — and there’s an office at this university that watches that statistic for every instructor) it’s no one’s business what’s playing in the background while I accomplish that. I have practically zero incidence of grade disputes in my classes — and that includes earlier semesters, when I usually listened to the radio dramas and political news on Deutschlandradio, and last semester, when I was experiencing the onset of Armitagemania.
I am often wrong. I could be grading badly all the time, or I might start grading badly this semester, and if evidence of that emerges (as it will, because this is a university where students really care a great deal about grades), I’ll think about why that might be the case and work to change it. But I honestly don’t think that parents would have any reason for complaint about what they get from me. Since I mail all papers to students’ permanent addresses at the end of the semester, presumably they have some opportunity to look if they wish to. I won’t repeat the only advice I ever got from this department chair about grading because it would reflect poorly upon him. Suffice it to say that he doesn’t worry about it anywhere near as much as I do.
For a post that explains how I experience grading, see here: https://meandrichard.wordpress.com/2010/04/22/ot-at-least-partially-whining/
Alas, we’ll have to differ here, rather than compare how long and how well we’ve been grading, the ways in which we’ve been trained to grade, the re-training we’ve been through, the TAs we’ve supervised, and so on.
If an audiobook in the background like muzak–if you’re not really listening and it’s a soft hum–that’s one thing; but cognitive science says that it actually isn’t possible to do two things at once or think about two things at once. So in papers in which students presumably are attempting to build arguments and cumulatively prove their theses, that gradual accumulation of an argument can be broken by distractions. And RA is distracting.
Again, I think that if you polled your classes to report anonymously whether or not they think listening to audiobooks is acceptable as you grade their papers, they’d object; and I think their parents would, too. I think they’d be right to object. I don’t think that minimal grade disputes and mailing papers to parents is proof that the practice is acceptable to others. It seems acceptable to you or you wouldn’t do it, but again, that’s not real evidence that you read and comment in the focused, concentrated manner that the students deserve. But I suspect we’ll get nowhere in continuing this.
Another anonymous academic said this on September 26, 2010 at 12:04 am | Reply
“But I suspect we’ll get nowhere in continuing this.”
With due respect, this is my fondest hope.
I just don’t think you can say anything about how I grade unless you’ve seen papers I’ve graded and asked people who’ve been graded by me how they experience my grading and what it enabled them to do. Incidentally, those are now both things this university checks up on, in the course of establishing and improving its standards on how to teach and evaluate writing courses. And every single course I teach is a writing class.
I thought about this last night when I was away from the computer. At times you seem to be concerned that I am one of those “bad” academics: spending too much time blogging at the expense of research and writing, not concentrating enough while grading. Again, you have no way to know this, but if I am a bad academic, and I often feel that I am, it’s not for either of those reasons. I don’t neglect work; I am conscientious.
To some extent I invited this because I suggested that you consider me for the D reading that you offer Mr. Armitage, but it’s tiring. I am not sure why I feel the need to justify myself, really, so I also consider the conversation over.
Honestly, it’s not that I think you are a “bad” academic. I’d have no way to know that, and if I’m looking at you as “B,” I think there are clear indications that you care about your students a great deal and put considerable and conscientious thought into your courses. I truly mean that.
I worry, though–but not about whether you are doing your best to educate your students. I have a real fellow feeling there (and have a similar story about learning not to judge a student who falls asleep in class; the last time I got irritated about that, perhaps 25 years ago, I left him sitting there, asleep, on his own, at the end of class and walked out. The next meeting he came in with a clipping and said “I’m sorry I fell asleep last time. My brother burned to death the night before.” And the clipping was about a young man with the same unusual last name who had burned to death three days before. I was horrified by what my student had been through, much less his brother, and I learned a lot from that about suspending judgment and accepting that my students have complicated, sometimes painful and agonizing lives I may have no insight into.)
But I’m concerned. It’s none of my business, but if you’re thinking of considering a different academic job, I know how time-consuming that is; my husband didn’t get tenure and had to go through the job search, of course while teaching and trying to prove he could continue to do good research and teach well, and he barely had time to brush his teeth. (He did get another job, at a better institution, weirdly.) Or if your existential crisis is leading you to think of ditching academia–and I think being an academic has real down sides–looking at outplacement counseling might be very helpful and provide support as you explore various possibilities. But the average academic schedule makes it difficult to re-market oneself and keep up with what you are already doing: teaching well and carrying on with your other job responsibilities. Since this is not a conversation that I imagine anyone else is attending to at this point, I’ll take the risky step of saying that I worry that the very real pleasures and gratifications of blogging might tempt you away from taking care of your future. I hope you will believe me when I say that what probably seems critical is, in an odd way, an older academic women voicing some no doubt impertinent worries. I am trying to express a genuine concern for you–one that is not my business to feel, I realize. As I say, I recognize that my concern is most likely to seem impertinent; but I do have a lot of sympathy for someone in your situation, thinking about major life changes.
Another anonymous academic said this on September 27, 2010 at 7:29 am | Reply
I’ve replied to this privately.
@servetus,
I would LOVE to read Mr. Armitage’s character bios of Lucifer and Mephistopheles were he to play them. Wouldn’t you?
Lucifer might go something like: Relationship issues with my Father. Dad got mad because I wasn’t happy He gave man free will (I mean really, He wasted that on MAN???), threw me out of Heaven. How to channel this anger against all of mankind……. 🙂
Had fun doing this….thanks-
Ann Marie said this on September 25, 2010 at 7:31 pm | Reply
This gave me a belly laugh, many thanks, esp. the point on free will (that’s an issue I’ve spent entire semester of instruction on …)
Maybe Lucifer could throw a chair through a window. Mr. Armitage might like this role because he wouldn’t feel under pressure to apologize. [and I in turn apologize for making light of violence — just wanted to play on the Times feature of two weeks ago now]
Throwing a chair through a window would be completely in character for the Prince of Darkness, no apologies necessary. Thanks for laughing at this, I gave myself a much needed chuckle…
Ann Marie said this on September 26, 2010 at 12:39 am | Reply
The Colin Firth/Jennifer Ehle version of P&P will always be the iconic one for me! Not a Keira Knightly fan so far. Mr. Armitage would work his usual magic with Darcy, but why bother? There are other roles awaiting his imprint.
Happy to read commenters’ remarks on Lucifer. I keep seeing Lucas North, with Lucifer/Gisborne at his shoulder, whispering evil doubts of Sir Harry’s goodwill into Lucas’ ear…will we ever escape the pernicious seduction of Gisborne?
Loved VoD long before the advent of Mr. A – that was just icing (chocolate, of course, on the cake) It would be lovely to have another speical with RA, happily settled in the vicarage as spouse-of. Source it from Mulubinba’s delightful Harry-Mulubinba e-mail correspondence. (With M’s permission).
Think I’ll give Frozen a miss. Six months of the year living with ice and snow is enough. Shirley Henderson has an interesting face. But she seems as much “deer caught in the headlights”, as she did in Hamish MacBeth. Perhaps I’m unfair.
fitzg said this on September 27, 2010 at 11:57 am | Reply
We don’t need Armitage as Darcy. I’d rather see some new period dramas, maybe some Trollope, if it has to be, although it’s hard to imagine any character in the Barsetshire series who’s dangerous enough for Mr. Armitage to want to play him. Somehow I don’t read him as a churchman!
I don’t understand, frankly, why Shirley Henderson has made it as far as she has — and Frozen is definitely a rarified taste, I think. Still, it won a lot of minor awards.
servetus said this on September 29, 2010 at 1:24 am | Reply
Sign in on Twitter and post a line with #Spooks. Soon enough you´ll be followed by Spooks´characters, past and present. You can interact with @Lucas_North, @SirGuyGisborne and @Porter_MI6. Be warned: don´t take posting serious, it´s an utterly rediculous time waster. Would love to read your post about this parallel world created by PR Company X. It´s a nice job if you can get it…
Violet said this on September 27, 2010 at 6:39 pm | Reply
Speaking of Lucifer, get thee behind me Satan!!! I have a hard enough time keeping up with fanvids and fanfic. I look forward to YOUR post on this topic, Violet! 🙂
Ok, as in: if you throw the frisbee, you must catch it.
#Porterneverrefuses
🙂 I’ll link it when you write it.
Is there a privacy issue (about IP adresses etc.)-like undertone in your remark? I know all Tw**** (won´t write it) are stored forever in one central place in your country. If there is anything else I need to know please fill me in. Maybe your post will have that purpose. Looking forward to read what you write around my link.
At this point it was more of a feeling of already being overwhelmed with everything I’m trying to process and analyze around Mr. Armitage, and I don’t have a Tw acct, but before I did get one, I would definitely be checking on privacy issues. I got habituated to FB before it started regularly changing its privacy rules, and it’s been annoying.
[…] no regret about his detachment from the Charlie project, and I’ve said in a few places that I assume that the primary purpose of Captain America is networking as opposed to artistic merit or professional trajectory. Except occasionally, “me + richard […]
Mr. Armitage, his fans, our pursuit of “great art,” and me as critic, part 1 « Me + Richard Armitage said this on October 7, 2010 at 10:59 pm | Reply
[…] regular obsession update feature has languished, partially because the last one inadvertently provoked such an odd conversation that it made me feel uncomfortable to expose myself […]
Random: Weekend before U.S. Thanksgiving edition (and obsession update, kind of) « Me + Richard Armitage said this on November 20, 2010 at 11:23 pm | Reply
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Mark helps keep Seofy‘s clients ahead of the competition by researching and monitoring the latest developments in search and predicting tweaks to the search engines’ ever evolving algorithms. He also designed and managed the build of the innovative SEO software. Since its launch the SEO spider has established itself as the leading onsite technical SEO auditing software in the industry.
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Subject: Best Stocks to Buy Now: A Money Morning Weekly Recap
URL: http://mney.co/1PQfEdG
NYSE: COH
Best Stocks to Buy Now: A Money Morning Weekly Recap
By Diane Alter, Contributing Writer, Money Morning - January 28, 2014
Best investments for the week ending Jan. 24, 2014: Stocks tumbled last week as investors fled global markets amid soft data out of China, and traders dumped crumbling emerging market currencies.
Disappointing Q4 earnings from a number of U.S. companies, including Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH), also weighed on markets.
For the week, the Dow dropped 3.5% or 580 points, falling back below the 16,000 level to end at 15,879. The S&P shed 48 points, or 2.6%, slumping below 1,800 to end at 1,790. And the Nasdaq slipped 1.7%, or 69 points, to 4,128.
But Money Morning never slips - investors can always count on us to interpret the big market-moving events, sift through earnings reports, and share the best stocks to buy now.
Here's a recap from last week:
Why Coach (NYSE: COH) Stock Dropped 8% Today
Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Industrial Average Weighed by Weak Earnings
Three "Insider" Stocks to Buy Now
By Tara Clarke, Associate Editor, Money Morning • @TaraKateClarke - January 22, 2014
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) stock plunged as low as 8.13% today (Wednesday) after its Q2 earnings release delivered this disappointing data...
Analysts expected to see earnings around $1.11 per share and revenue of $1.48 billion. What they got instead was EPS at $1.06 and a revenue of $1.42 billion. The Q2 earnings represent a 16% drop from a year ago.
To continue reading, please click here...
By Rebecca McClay, Money Morning - January 22, 2014
Stock Market Today, Jan. 22: U.S. stocks today are mixed and trading in a fairly narrow range as corporate earnings season continues - with lackluster results. Investors are cautious ahead of economic data tomorrow that includes jobless claims and existing home sales reports.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average today is down 0.24% at 16,374. The Standard & Poor's 500 is up 0.2% at 1,841, and the Nasdaq Composite Index is up 0.46% at 4,245.
By Tim Melvin, Special Situation Strategist, Money Morning - November 25, 2013
When insiders buy up their own company stock, there's just one reason - they're pretty sure their shares will go up in value. And sure enough, studies have shown that in the 12 months after insiders buy, that stock outperforms the total market by 8.9%. So when insiders are buying - as they are at these three companies -
it's time for investors to go shopping...
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SavilleKushner
Oprah and Trump the parachutists
savillekushner@hotmail.co.uk January 13, 2018 Politics and culture, Politics and history
Stephen Spielberg thinks Oprah Winfrey would make a fine President of the USA. So that’s okay. “She’s been on the air for 35 years with all sorts of social outreach…I call her the ambassador of empathy”. He was asked whether she had the “skillset” – “does our current president have the skillset – ?” he replied. Well, give the man his dues: Trump has been struggling to empathise with Kim Jong-Un for months.
Now, there’s part of the problem. The bar has been set so low with Donald Trump that almost anyone can step over it. Trump invites judgement at the level of the lowest common denominator. But this is fundamentally wrong. If we are using Trump as a benchmark for who might be president of the USA we will accept just about anyone – including Stephen Bannon and Michael Wolff himself!
In fact, there have been US presidents as unqualified as Winfrey and Trump. The only public post Chester Arthur, 21st President, held had been as a tax inspector – Eisenhower had only ever been a soldier. Abraham Lincoln, himself, only served one term in the House before becoming the most admired president the country has had – though he had, of course, been an active revolutionary. And the USA has had its share of disastrous presidents who, nonetheless, had appropriate backgrounds: Hoover, Harrison, Fillmore, Harding. Indeed, though Hilary Clinton – like Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon – was supremely politically qualified for the presidential role – seasoned and experienced at State management – she was widely thought to be too much so – so credentialed that her unimpeachability might be disabling of democracy.
So what is it that might make Oprah Winfrey qualified or otherwise for the job – besides her olympian skills of empathy?
Unlike university professors, doctors and lawyers, politicians don’t have a body of knowledge that carries with it certain qualifications that ensure only those who have mastered the knowledge are admitted to the tribe. Politics is not policed in the same way that law is – there are no qualifications other than experience and commitment. Anyone good at reasoning and the rhetorical arts can stand up in court and persuade a judge and a jury. But that is not enough to ‘be’ a lawyer. We expect certain understanding of ethics associated with that and with the use of evidence; numerous technical insights that ensure the practice of advocacy falls within common, standardised rules; we expect a commitment to certain cultural norms such as respect, compromise, and self-restraint; we certainly expect a lawyer to consciously carry with her some of the history of the profession. You don’t just train to be a lawyer – you are inducted into the role. Part of the unusualness of Trump is that he occupies the role but has never been through an induction – he, as it were, parachuted into it. It is also said that one can never be truly a member of a culture until you can tell a joke in it. Has Trump successfully told a political joke? If so it’s hard to tell it apart from one of his all-too-frequent grotesqueries.
So, in that sense, a Winfrey and a Trump can, indeed, become president-by-parachute – and forego the funnies. The boundaries around the practice of politics are highly permeable – there is no one to denounce you for being a – please excuse this – ‘fake’. We like the fact that anyone (with enough money and clout) can become president.
But this does not allow us to be licentious, to tear up rulebooks, to reduce our expectations of politicians. We are shocked when we see George W. Bush struggling to name a State leader or capital; we are indignant when we hear Richard Nixon using coarse language to describe coarse acts; we are dismayed when Donald Trump so casually dismisses years of diplomatic agreements and structures on the basis of whimsy, caprice and prejudice. We feel chilled when Dwight D. Eisenhower takes on the presidency and brings the dispositions of a wartime general to this highest civic post – relieved and celebratory when we realise that he successfully adapted his military judgement and skills to those needed to meet the demands of a presidency.
Eisenhower showed the refined skill and insights of a politician through many of his actions – passing socially progressive legislation as a Republican when House and Senate were Democrat; establishing NASA as a civilian organisation; first delaying and then helping to engineer the downfall of Joe McCarthy; and, in an act of stunning insight and reflection, warning the country of the influence of the “military-industrial complex”. Eisenhower, perhaps above other US presidents, shows that there are credentials that not only define you as ‘presidential material’, but which elevate you to presidential ‘statesmanship’.
There is, in this fuzzy concept of ‘statesmanship’, an echo of what we understand to be professional mastery. You can study Physics and master its content, but still not feel able to call yourself a ‘physicist’; paint and play an instrument but be cautious in putting ‘artist’ in your passport. Academics are often cautious about conferring the title of ‘scholar’ on a colleague. The shift from studying geography to being a ‘geographer’ involves an indwelling of identity, a sense of commitment, of the title describing who you feel yourself to have become. There has to be that sense of having been through a process of ‘becoming’.
It is easier to see this ineffable quality in politicians than to describe it. Churchill had it, as did Margaret Thatcher – but Tony Blair did not and neither does Theresa May. John Major has always tried to assume it, but it eludes him, whereas David Steele came to acquire it. Eisenhower and Roosevelt had it in spades – Nixon had the darker side of it. Many mourned the death of John F. Kennedy because he seemed to be so latent with those transcendental qualities.
Like the British constitution, that presidential and ‘statesman-like’ qualifications are not written down does not mean that they are not known and expected. We cannot disbar a presidential candidate on the basis of lack of credentials but this does not mean that we cannot challenge their legitimacy. Indeed, the US Election Primaries were designed specifically to test these credentials and expose their absence and to filter out the inappropriate candidates. We may recall that Trump’s surprising and iconoclastic election win was down to the final Party Convention at which reasonableness and compromise suggested that delegates would shrink from endorsing his Republican candidacy, even though he had chalked up enough votes to ensure it.
So, supporting Oprah Winfrey’s presidential ambitions is a way of making the Trump presidency a precedent – the affirmation that the unwritten rules just do not apply – that there is no skillset, the we depreciate of the value of statesmanship. It would be a continuation of the Trump presidency. Those who value those professional qualities and credentials in politicians are dismayed by the awful personal qualities of the man – his racism, misogyny, incompetence – but, in a deeper sense, by his betrayal of the whole notion of qualification. That same dismay would attend a Winfrey presidency, even though she may be a person of greater personal integrity and sympathy. Yes, we may well want a president to be drawn from the political class, to have been inducted into its culture – okay, to have been a frog in the Washington ‘swamp’.
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Published by savillekushner@hotmail.co.uk
View all posts by savillekushner@hotmail.co.uk
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rullpicarma » Rock/Pop » The Blackeyed Susans - All Souls Alive
The Blackeyed Susans - All Souls Alive album download
Arranged By – The Blackeyed Susans. Artwork By – WOW/Chung. Engineer – Jenny Thomson. Engineer, Mixed By – Andy Parsons. Mastered By – Don Bartley. Mastered By – David Holloway (2). Photography – Bleddyn Butcher.
Images of emptiness, forlorn hope, romantic bitterness, and religious iconography litter the songs, but rather than amping things up á la countryman Nick Cave, the Susans coat everything with just enough honey in the arrangements. It could be the soothing backing vocals on "We Could Have Been Someone" or "Reveal Yourself" or the mandolin from guest performer Mark C. Halstead on a number of songs, but, in any fashion, it shows the band as one easily able to balance bite and sweetness.
BPM Profile All Souls Alive. Album starts at 174BPM, ends at 102BPM (-72), with tempos within the -BPM range. Try refreshing the page if dots are missing). Recent albums by The Blackeyed Susans. Close Your Eyes and See. 2017.
Features Song Lyrics for The Blackeyed Susans's All Souls Alive album. Apartment No. 9 Lyrics. The Blackeyed Susans Lyrics provided by SongLyrics. All Music News . Popular The Blackeyed Susans Lyrics.
All Souls Alive is the second studio album by The Blackeyed Susans, released in December 1993 on the independent record label, Torn and Frayed, and distributed by Shock Records
Artist: The Blackeyed Susans. Album: All Souls Alive.
By: Blackeyed Susans (1993, Rock). More albums from Blackeyed Susans: Some Night, Somewhere by Blackeyed Susans. Dedicated To The Ones We Love by Blackeyed Susans. Hard Liquo. oft Music by Blackeyed Susans. Mouth To Mouth by Blackeyed Susans. View all albums . All Souls Alive. By: Blackeyed Susans (1993, Rock).
The Blackeyed Susans. The Blackeyed Susans - Dirty Water 04:48. The Blackeyed Susans - This One Eats Souls 06:33. Lover or the Loved - The Blackeyed Susans. Reveal Yourself 1989 – 2009 - The Blackeyed Susans. Welcome Stranger - The Blackeyed Susans. Dedicated To The Ones We Love - The Blackeyed Susans. Shangri-La - The Blackeyed Susans.
1 A Curse on You Phil Kakualas / Graham Lee / David McComb The Blackeyed Susans 3:31
2 We Could've Been Someone Phil Kakualas / David McComb The Blackeyed Susans 4:20
3 Every Gentle Soul David McComb The Blackeyed Susans 3:31
4 Memories Leonard Cohen / Phil Spector The Blackeyed Susans 6:00
5 Sheets or Rain Phil Kakualas The Blackeyed Susans 3:30
6 Reveal Yourself Phil Kakualas / David McComb The Blackeyed Susans 4:14
7 Apartment #9 Johnny Paycheck The Blackeyed Susans 2:53
8 I Can See Now Phil Kakualas / David McComb The Blackeyed Susans 3:58
9 Dirty Water Phil Kakualas The Blackeyed Susans 4:48
10 This One Eats Souls Phil Kakualas / David McComb The Blackeyed Susans 6:33
Performer: The Blackeyed Susans
Title: All Souls Alive
Recording date: July, 1993
Style: Alternative Country-Rock,Alternative/Indie Rock
Recording location: Atlantis Studios, Stockholm, Sweden
Other Formats: ASF VOC WAV TTA XM AHX
The Blackeyed Susans Alternative Country-Rock Alternative/Indie Rock
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Nick Cave & the Bad Seeds / Nick Cave - Rock of Gibraltar download album
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Tag "SDCC"
Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Good Place, Superstore coming to SDCC with panels and activations
It’s been a big week for San Diego Comic-Con announcements. We’ve had Netflix revealing appearances from The Witcher and The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance, plus activations from heavy hitters like
American Horror Story: 1984 activation will be highlight for FX Fearless Forum at SDCC
FX Networks has had some amazing activations at San Diego Comic-Con. One of our highlights was the Legion activation that made you feel like you were a mutant trying to
The Witcher and The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance headed to SDCC’s Hall H
Netflix has announced today that it’s bringing The Witcher and The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance to San Diego Comic-Con. The Netflix panel will be held on Friday, July 19th
The Witcher fans are upset with Yennefer casting in new photos
Netflix went all out today with promoting The Witcher, the upcoming live-action series based on the book and inspired by the video game of the same name. The streaming service
The SDCC 2019 Exclusives Portal is now open
Thousands of thousands of people show up to San Diego Comic-Con every year for the merchandise. Exclusive items, worth more than their asking price, are only available at the convention.
Todd McFarlane is coming to San Diego Comic-Con 2019
Todd McFarlane, the creator of Spawn, is coming to San Diego Comic-Con 2019. It’s a special year with Spawn 300 and 301 coming soon, and fans will get to meet
Conan O’Brien announces return to San Diego Comic-Con 2019
Conan O’Brien has embraced San Diego Comic-Con for some time now, and each year lucky fans get to be part of the live audience while also getting their very own
3 nights of SDCC 2019 parties with Crunchyroll and Nerdist
San Diego Comic-Con is a huge, yearly event, and hundreds of thousands of people flock to San Diego to experience everything from comics to upcoming movies. It’s also got a
Game of Thrones set to return to Comic-Con to celebrate last 8 seasons
Update 6/27/19: HBO has confirmed the return of Game of Thrones to San Diego Comic-Con. There will be an Hall H panel on Friday, July 19th, which will include Jacob
Conan O’Brien leaks return to San Diego Comic-Con 2019
Conan O’Brien’s regular appearances at San Diego Comic-Con probably makes the list of top 10 greatest things to ever happen to the con. In an interview today with Howard Stern,
Ghostbusters World mobile game will redefine the AR genre
The city that you are walking through is boring. That building is boring and this street is boring, as well. Why not spice it up with a few ghosts? Armed
Fear the Walking Dead cast on fear of getting to know each other
Fear the Walking Dead had a big presence at San Diego Comic-Con 2018 including a press conference. The talent included showrunner Andrew Chambliss, writer Ian Goldberg, AMC’s chief content officer Scott Gimple,
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’s final season to focus on Rebecca starting over
With the final season of Crazy Ex-Girlfriend ahead of us, you can expect creators Rachel Bloom and Aline Brosh McKenna to finish it with a bang. The duo knew how they
YouTube Originals ‘Origin’ plays on fears of space and starting over
Not much was known about YouTube Originals’ sci-fi space thriller Origin, other than the actors that had been cast in the roles. At this year’s San Diego Comic-Con, YouTube Premium did
Star Trek Discovery season 2 will answer all your canon questions
Last season of Star Trek: Discovery left many of the characters on their own adventures. Michael Burnham (Sonequa Martin-Green) has been reinstated as a Starfleet Officer onboard the Discovery alongside
SDCC: Warner Bros surprises with early Wonder Woman 1984 clip
Wonder Woman made her grand return to Hall H during this year’s Warner Bros panel. Patty Jenkins, Gal Gadot, and Chris Pine took some time off from filming Wonder Woman
SDCC: Marvel and Hyundai reveal the Kona Iron Man Edition car
Iron Man fans listen up! Once again, Marvel has teamed up with Hyundai to release the brand new Hyundai Kona Iron Man Edition. It may not be the same exotic
Facebook Watch series ‘Sacred Lies’ premieres tomorrow
Facebook is joining Netflix, Hulu and Amazon with its own original programming for Facebook Watch. The social media giant’s new drama series, Sacred Lies, will be premiering tomorrow, Friday, July
Lydia Hearst replies to Kathy Griffin after Chris Hardwick’s return to AMC
In light of news that Chris Hardwick will be returning to The Talking Dead, Kathy Griffin sent out a tweet saying “F*** this!!!” in regards to the news of his return.
SDCC: Demoing the wonderful worlds of Kingdom Hearts III
It’s been fourteen years since the release of Kingdom Hearts III. Fourteen years of patience. Fourteen years of waiting for a proper sequel to Kingdom Hearts II. Now, as we
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© 2021 New Atlas
Mcor brings full-color 3D paper printing to the desktop
By Aaron Heinrich
Mcor brings full-color 3D pape...
The Mcor Arke full-color desktop 3D paper printer
Mcor Technologies
The Mcor Arke 3D paper printer comes in six different cover options
Mcor Technologies says that the Arke is the only such printer that meets the current ICC (International Color Consortium) color map, to ensure accurate color reproduction
An example of what can be printed with the Mcor Arke
Industrial-quality, full-color 3D layered paper printing for the desktop may soon be an option for creative, engineering and education professionals, with the recent introduction of the Mcor Arke at CES. It's capable of printing high-resolution 3D models entirely from paper, eliminating the need for expensive and sometimes toxic plastics.
Mcor Technologies says that this is the only such printer that meets the current ICC (International Color Consortium) color map, to ensure accurate color reproduction.
The Arke prints at a resolution of 4800 x 4800 DPI, and offers a maximum build size of 240 x 205 x 125 mm (9.5 x 8 x 4.9 in). It's compatible with both Mac and Windows-based PCs, and comes with a free smartphone app to allow you to monitor your projects via iOS or Android devices. Connectivity is via Wi-Fi, Bluetooth or USB.
Offered in six different printer covers, the printer measures a compact 880 mm wide x 593 mm high x 633 mm deep (34.6 x 23.3 x 24.9 in), making it just slightly bigger than most standard desktop printers in use today.
With an announced launch price of US$5,995 and availability scheduled for Q2 2016, the company expects this to be a cost-effective replacement to monochromatic desktop 3D paper printers currently in use.
The Arke will join Mcor's non-desktop and more expensive full-color 3D paper printer, the Mcor Iris.Source: Mcor Technologies
3D PrintingDesktopPaperCES 2016
Aaron Heinrich
Aaron first knew he wanted to be a writer when he was in grade school and the local paper printed his editorial on environmental issues. Since then he’s written screenplays, white papers, speeches, and articles on everything from baby diapers to nanotech. When he’s not behind a computer keyboard, he’s grabbing the handlebars on his motorcycle and riding around California and beyond.
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Marvel Releases Jessica Jones Comic PREQUEL To Netflix Show
Front Page Slider, Marvel TV Shows, Shows
Posted on... 5:12 pm October 7, 2015
It’s written by the original Jessica Jones author, it’s totally FREE, and you can totally read it right now.
Looking for something to tide you over to the release of Jessica Jones on Netflix? How about a comic book tie-in written by the original author of the Alias comics, Brian Michael Bendis?
By the original creative team from the comics, but official canon for the Netflix show
Give it a read and then come back for some spoiler-y discussion.
Spoilers for the comic below!
The first thing that leaps out about the book is that DAREDEVIL IS IN IT! And that’s news, because he’s still not confirmed for Jessica Jones despite the fact that they both live and work in Hell’s Kitchen, New York.
So what does that mean? Well, a search for Daredevil might be a major plot line for the series. Matt Murdock is pretty good at hiding in plain sight, but Jessica is, after all, a private detective. Maybe her investigation into Daredevil’s identity, something that could lead up to the unification of the Defenders, keeps getting derailed by Killgrave, a.k.a. the Purple Man, who will be in every single episode of Jessica Jones.
Hi, I’m Turk. I get beat up a lot.
Also, remember Turk from the Daredevil series? Yeah, we saw him get arrested and go to jail. So this comic takes place between Daredevil and Jessica Jones, but the events of the two almost overlap.
Another funny bit – we talked just yesterday about how bad Jessica is at flying, and the comic makes sure to point that out again – Jessica undershoots her leap to the top of the hospital by a little bit. She’s more adept at sneaking around. The hero life isn’t really for her.
Not that she’s got the personality for it, ripping out a guy’s IV.
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Netflix to Debut Entire 1st Season of Original Series ‘House of Cards’ in Feb.
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Older PostStar Wars: The Force Awakens – John Boyega Says We’re All Wrong
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Schizophrenia, people. Early signs in high school, exacerbates during early twenties and usually manifests itself to the outside world with a psychotic break-often a a tragic action that belies the twisted inner workings of a paranoid and disorganized mind. His parents knew, but no one wants to really believe that their kid is capable (even not in his right mind) of such a horrific act. Better screening and diagnoses, and more teeth in retention laws are needed. Better to unfairly screen a 19 year old immature brat and then release him (with hopefully a good scare about acting out anti-socially) than to miss a potentially homicidal one.
Joshua A.D.
You heard it here first folks. If you're not RIGHT or LEFT, you have formal thought disorder.
bobby trendy
my thought are with everyone...this is terrible and im nude
Zinah A. Mariscal
What is unfortunate is that this young man wasn't sent for an evaluation by all these individuals that suspected odd behavior, especially in a school. You can sectioned someone to the hospital for an evaluation. If this young man was making incoherent statements, was having outbursts that is significant reason for a psychiatric evaluation to be done.
We often hear of the aftermath of individuals like Loughner....If only the school instead of requiring him to have a clean bill of health follow with an actual referral or a section to the hospital based on poor judgement & insight that appeared to be evident....I hope we all learn from this.
the only people that could've been able to stop this is his parents, take a good hard look at your children and if you see any mental concerns get them the help they need, noone knows better than mom and dad, imangine how this world would be if parents where more involved
pohpooh
He looks like he needs an exorcist.
You don't see any law abiding gun owners committing these crimes do you, and there are many many more law abidin gun owners out there than there are the few nuts who own them. So lets look correcting the real problems and take those who would misuse a firearm off the streets, and leave the law abiding who choose to own guns alone.
My guns have killed less people than Ted Kennedy's car!
vonspoo
ummm he was pretty "law abiding" up till the point where he shot a bunch of people. lots of people who murder others are "law abiding" until they pull the trigger.
This man have more sense than n 1 on this forum.....shaved his head n eyebrows 2 make himself look crazy...n simply watch you jack-azzes diagnose him...very clever I must say
And some slob in a gun-store sold this nut-job a gun.
Thank you Charleton Heston. Thank you NRA. Thank you faceless American men who confuse their weapons with their genitalia.
Oh but when a liquer store guys sells a drunk a fif of liquer then wrecks and kills someone we dont blame him. Oh but nevermind you were jus talkin out ur a$$. Somehow tying men and guns together. How close minde are you?
classyferret
A paranoid schizophrenic with lots of rage might certainly be influenced by vitriolic language and 'target the enemy' images. 'The self of the blind man includes the ground he is walking on.' Of course the mentally ill are influenced by emotional forces in their environment! Note: most paranoid schizophrenics manage to go through life without engaging in hateful, evil acts. A very small percentage of schizophrenics are, in addition to their psychosis, desparate for attention and willing to kill to make themselves central to what's going on in the world. They aspire to a place in history. This guy smiled during his hearing because he got what he wanted.
The "expert" who suggested this guy might be bipolar doesn't understand thought disorders. His statements all point to schizophrenia, not a mood disorder such as bipolar (manic-depressive illness). He is still responsible for his actions, in my opinion, psychosis or not.
I believe the parents need to accept some degree of responsibility. They should have been closer to him than anyone else.
Being creepy and acting weird is not a crime. If it was, half the country would be in jail. Every individual who caused crimes like this can always be researched back and determined things that could have been done. But not all creepy people commit crimes. How do you not punish the creepy non violent individuals if you are going to punish the creepy ones that somehow you can determine they will after the fact?
A lot fo people in school creeped me out. And if they committed such a terrible deed as this one, I would think they even creeped me out more. So let's lock up all creepy people.
sevresblue
Yes, I can imagine how a teacher would 'never' have the chance to talk to a student in a year. Yet that teacher noted unusual behavior (could it be Asperberger's, a form of autism?). And this behavior alienated the student from other students, too. Also – Not My Problem. I'm not forgiving, or condoning this young man's actions. I am just saying here are people who encounter him on a daily basis, who notice unusual and disturbing behavior, and they just pass him along. I understand that schools have budgets, and the they can't look at every lonely student. But I will be you anything his teachers are all nodding now, and saying "yeah, he was an odd duck..." when he could've been getting help all along. Maybe those people wouldn't have gotten shot...
Meant to say "I will 'bet' you anything – sorry for the typo!
wakeuponthebrightside
After reading this I had two thoughts: The shooting was obviously a horrific event which saddened me but I was also disappointed that the article continued with the idea that anyone and everyone who has a mental illness is crazed lunatic. I am bipolar and have battled depression my entire life, but I would never harm let alone kill mass amounts of people. By placing a stigma on those of us dealing with emotional scars, The U.S is def. not helping reduce the likleyhood of these tragedies happening agian, However letting people know that there is help and that they don't need to feel guilty for battling their problems is key in helping heal these people. If we as a society make people feel shame when they need help, then we are doing this world an injustice. Reaching out to people is the only the way and until we let them know they're ok and loved... then devastation will continue.
allinor
Being weird is not a crime. People who are now coming forward to act like they knew something was going to happen are not being honest. Small minds long to be right.
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The Ridgefield Playhouse returns with its first live show of 2021 – Celebrate Valentine’s Day with Broadway stars Jarrod Spector and Kelli Barrett
Love is in the air at The Ridgefield Playhouse and even a pandemic won't stop us from celebrating Valentine's Day! Whether you want to get out and paint the town red (socially distanced of course) this Valentine’s Day with dinner and a show or spend a romantic evening at home, we have a fun way for everyone to celebrate this year while helping to support the arts! The Ridgefield Playhouse will host its first live show of 2021 with Broadway’s most talented power couple!
Tony Award nominee Jarrod Spector (Jersey Boys, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical, The Cher Show) and Kelli Barrett (Broadway’s Doctor Zhivago, Wicked, Baby It’s You, FX’s Fosse/Verdon) will take the stage for two limited capacity performances on Sunday, February 14 at 4pm and 8pm.
Only 100 people will be in the audience of the 500-seat theater to hear songs from Broadway's Jersey Boys, Wicked and more, along with hits from your favorite popstars like Billy Joel, and Paul McCartney, when they perform "Funny How it Happens: A Valentine's Day Celebration." Livestream tickets are also available for those who would like to watch from home. The shows are part of the Teed & Brown Broadway & Cabaret Series with support from Adam Broderick Salon & Spa, BMW of Ridgefield, Silver Ribbon Jewelry of Westport, Campari & Cinzano Prosecco and Deborah Ann’s Sweet Shoppe. The shows kick off with a free glass of champagne and chocolates for all in theater patrons.
“Stay at Home” ticket buyers can upgrade their virtual tickets to include champagne and chocolate, which will be available for pick up at The Playhouse on the day of the show. Raffle tickets will be available with a chance to win fabulous prizes including a gift certificate for a day of beauty at Adam Broderick Salon & Spa; a date night package with a BMW and personal driver that includes dinner for two at Sarah’s Wine Bar and tickets to a show of your choice at The Ridgefield Playhouse, courtesy of BMW of Ridgefield; beautiful earrings and a gift certificate from Silver Ribbon Jewelry of Westport. Dinner and a show packages available and include a prix fixe dinner at TerraSole Ristorante (3 Big Shop Lane, Ridgefield).
Hitched in 2014, Kelli Barrett & Jarrod Spector take you on an intimate journey following the uncanny parallels and fortuitous make-it-or-break-it moments throughout their careers and friendship that eventually brought them together. Spector is best known for his Tony Nominated performance in ‘Beautiful: the Carole King Musical’ in the role of Barry Mann. He played Frankie Valli for a record 1,500 performances in Broadway’s ‘Jersey Boys’ and debuted on the Great White Way at age 9 as Gavroche in ‘Les Miserables.’ He was last seen as the iconic Sonny Bono in Broadway’s ‘The Cher Show.’
Barrett originated the role of Lara Guishar in Broadway’s ‘Doctor Zhivago’ and has also played leading roles in Broadway’s ‘Wicked’, ‘Baby It’s You!’ and ‘The Royal Family’. She was lauded for her portrayal of Liza Minnelli in the award-winning FX show ‘Fosse/Verdon,’ adding this credit to over 2 dozen others in television and film. “Funny How It Happens” features pop favorites (Close To You, Will You Love Me Tomorrow, Be My Baby, etc.) and iconic songs from their Broadway musicals (You’ve Got a Friend, Cabaret, I Got You Babe, etc.) while offering an inside (and often hilarious) scoop on what life is really like as a married Broadway power couple. This show will be a safe and fun way to celebrate Valentine’s Day 2021!
For more information or to purchase touchless print at home ticket ($45 - $75) go online at www.ridgefieldplayhouse.org or, you can visit or call the box office (203) 438-5795. The Ridgefield Playhouse is currently doing socially distanced, limited capacity seating. Concession/bar can be ordered via our mobile site so that you can pick it up on the way in, or get notified when it is ready for you to pick up once in the theater. The Ridgefield Playhouse is a non-profit performing arts center located at 80 East Ridge, parallel to Main Street, Ridgefield, CT and is committed to keeping the arts alive and available to all.
https://ridgefieldplayhouse.org Twitter: @RPlayhouse Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ridgefieldplayhouse/ Instagram:
]]> kerry@ducey.org (The Ridgefield Playhouse) Events Fri, 15 Jan 2021 06:25:30 -0500 YWCA Darien/Norwalk Newcomers Wine Tasting Event on January 21st https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46294-ywca-newcomers-wine-tasting-event-on-january-21st46294-ywca-newcomers-wine-tasting-event-on-january-21st https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46294-ywca-newcomers-wine-tasting-event-on-january-21st46294-ywca-newcomers-wine-tasting-event-on-january-21st
The YWCA Darien/Norwalk Newcomers Club is partnering with Baywater Properties to host a Winter wine tasting at 7 p.m. on Thursday, January 21st.
Wine expert Tyler Colman will lead a tasting on Zoom of a selection of red and white limited production wines from Italy that overdeliver.
The event is free, all are welcome, but registration at www.ywcadn.org/newcomersclub.
The selected wines are available for purchase prior to the event at Leary’s in Darien.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Jen Russey) Events Fri, 15 Jan 2021 04:08:27 -0500 COVID-19 Vaccine at RVNAhealth, Community Testing on Saturday https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/life/46289-covid-19-vaccine-at-rvnahealth-community-testing-on-saturday46289-covid-19-vaccine-at-rvnahealth-community-testing-on-saturday https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/life/46289-covid-19-vaccine-at-rvnahealth-community-testing-on-saturday46289-covid-19-vaccine-at-rvnahealth-community-testing-on-saturday
COVID-19 Vaccines Available at RVNAhealth
RVNAhealth is an official COVID-19 vaccine provider in the State of CT, approved by the Connecticut Department of Public Health (DPH) and authorized within the CDC’s Vaccine Administration Management System (VAMS). RVNAhealth is administering COVID-19 Vaccines in accordance with the phased vaccination approach outlined by the CT DPH.
As of early January 2021, Connecticut is in Phase 1A of vaccine roll-out. Phase 1A includes all healthcare personnel, long-term care facility residents and medical first responders.
This web page will be updated as additional Phases become eligible to receive the COVID-19 Vaccine in Connecticut. (Last updated: January 11, 2021)
Phase 1A Eligible Vaccine Recipients
Registration and appointments: Individuals who are part of the State of CT Phase 1A population must pre-register and make an appointment on the VAMS portal to receive the vaccine at RVNAhealth. Appointments may not be scheduled directly with RVNAhealth.
Your RVNAhealth COVID-19 Vaccine Appointment
RVNAhealth COVID-19 Vaccine Appointments consist of 4 primary steps:
Arrival: Please park in the RVNAhealth parking lot at 27 Governor Street in Ridgefield, CT and follow the signs to enter through the side lobby door. All visitors must wear a mask to enter and your temperature will be taken. Please note: Individuals with high temperatures will not be permitted to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
Check In and Registration: Phase 1A individuals must pre-register in the VAMS system. RVNAhealth will confirm your VAMS registration, and you will answer a series of questions. If you are not registered in the VAMS system, you will not be eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. Please note: Individuals who have received another vaccine within the past 14 days will not be permitted to receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
Nurse’s Station and Vaccination: All vaccinations are administered by RVNAhealth nurses. Prior to receiving your COVID-19 vaccination, you will review the pre-vaccine checklist and learn what to expect following vaccination. You will receive your vaccine in your arm.
Monitoring: Following vaccination, you will remain at RVNAhealth for 15 to 30 minutes while being monitored for any reactions. This is mandatory. While waiting, you may make your appointment for your second COVID-19 vaccine dose.
RVNAhealth follows strict infection control and hygiene practices and has extensive cleaning measures of all equipment and facilities. All treatment rooms have a newly-installed filtration system to ensure absolute safety. Rooms are cleaned before, after, and between appointments with medical-grade solutions. The RVNAhealth building and organization has been operating throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and have been successful in maintaining a safe and trustworthy environment.
PAYMENT/INSURANCE
Please bring your insurance information with you at the time of your appointment. If you are uninsured or do not have a participating insurance plan, COVID-19 vaccines will be offered free of charge.
Flu & Pneumonia Vaccinations
Nursing Services & Immunizations
Virtual Wellness Fair
Physical Wellness & Training
What is VAMS?
VAMS is the CDC’s secure, online tool where individuals can answer COVID-19 vaccine eligibility screening questions, make a vaccine appointment, get a reminder to return for a second dose and receive a vaccine certificate. To learn about creating your account and scheduling an appointment, visit the CDC’s Frequently Asked Questions about VAMS.
Which COVID-19 vaccine will I receive?
RVNAhealth currently administers the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. Individuals cannot choose which vaccine they will receive. Please note that the Pfizer vaccine is available to individuals 16 years and older. The Moderna COVID-19 vaccine is available to individuals 18 years and older.
Can I be placed on a wait list to receive the vaccine?
Not presently. Appointments are only available online for individuals who are eligible for and ready to accept the vaccine in the current phase.
How safe are COVID-19 vaccines?
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA) for the Pfizer -BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. Both vaccines which have been shown to be safe and effective as determined by data from the manufacturers and findings from large clinical trials. For the most up-to-date guidance, visit the CDC vaccine safety page.
What can I expect after the COVID-19 vaccine?
You may experience some side effects, which are normal signs that your body is building protection against COVID-19. Learn more in this CDC video.
RVNAhealth will continue to provide COVID-19 Vaccine Updates via website, social media, e-newsletters, and local media as new information become available.
For additional questions, please call RVNAhealth at (203) 438-5555 or contact us ››
COVID-19 Testing Now Available at RVNAhealth
Beginning January 16, 2021, RVNAhealth offers COVID-19 testing by appointment to the public. Tests are administered by RVNAhealth nurses, and are available at RVNAhealth (Ridgefield location) or at your home.
Individuals under the age of 18 must be accompanied by an adult. A separate appointment must be made for each individual who receives a test. Individuals must remain in their vehicles until asked to enter the RVNAhealth building; masks are required. RVNAhealth offers tests to both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Individuals with symptoms or a believed exposure are tested externally — in the RVNAhealth parking lot.
RVNAhealth offers both PCR (oral swab) and Rapid (nasal) tests. Learn about both tests below, as well as RVNAhealth safety protocols and payment.
At RVNAhealth by Appointment
27 Governor Street, Ridgefield CT
Appointments may be made for the following times. Appointments may be made up to two weeks in advance.
Thursdays, 1:00pm – 6:00pm (beginning January 19, 2021)
Saturdays, 11:00am – 2:30pm (beginning January 16, 2021)
If you encounter problems scheduling online, please call our office at 203-438-5555.
Masks are required to enter the RVNAhealth building. Upon arrival, please park in the designated “Vaccine Parking “spots in the RVNAhealth lot and call the phone number on the sign to check in. Remain in your vehicle and answer screening questions over the phone until instructed to enter the building.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (RVNAhealth) Life Fri, 15 Jan 2021 01:08:00 -0500 Connecticut Residents Over 75 Can Now Register for COVID-19 Vaccination Appointments as State Transitions To Phase 1b https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/life/46292-connecticut-residents-over-75-can-now-register-for-covid-19-vaccination-appointments-as-state-transitions-to-phase-1b46292-connecticut-residents-over-75-can-now-register-for-covid-19-vaccination-appointments-as-state-transitions-to-phase-1b https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/life/46292-connecticut-residents-over-75-can-now-register-for-covid-19-vaccination-appointments-as-state-transitions-to-phase-1b46292-connecticut-residents-over-75-can-now-register-for-covid-19-vaccination-appointments-as-state-transitions-to-phase-1b
1.3 Million Residents Are Eligible To Receive Vaccine in Phase 1b as 46,000 First Doses Are Expected To Be Delivered Weekly From the Federal Government
Governor Lamont Accept Advisory Group’s Recommendations To Expand Phase 1b To More Populations
Governor Ned Lamont today announced that phase 1b of Connecticut’s COVID-19 vaccine rollout will begin on Monday, January 18, 2021, and residents in the state over the age of 75 can now schedule appointments to receive the vaccine.
In addition, Governor Lamont announced that he is accepting the recommendations of the Allocation Subcommittee of the Governor’s COVID-19 Vaccine Advisory Group to expand phase 1b to include additional population groups. In the coming weeks, phase 1b will expand to include:
Residents between the ages of 65 and 74 (approximately 353,000 individuals); and
Residents between the ages of 16 and 64 who have underlying health conditions that put them at greater risk of the virus (approximately 362,000 individuals).
This is in addition to those already in phase 1b, including:
Residents who are 75 and older (approximately 277,000 individuals);
Residents and staff of congregate settings (approximately 50,000 individuals); and
Frontline essential workers (approximately 325,000 individuals).
In order to ensure that the most vulnerable populations within phase 1b are prioritized, Governor Lamont has directed the Connecticut Department of Public Health to begin the phase by prioritizing the vaccine for persons over the age of 75 in the first wave. As supply increases and a significant portion of individuals over 75 have received the vaccine, phase 1b will open up to include more of the eligible populations with a focus on addressing issues of equity and risk of poor outcomes from COVID-19.
It is estimated that 1.3 million Connecticut residents are eligible for phase 1b. Currently, the state anticipates receiving about 46,000 first doses of the vaccine per week from the federal government.
All eligible residents are required to make an appointment in advance of receiving the vaccine. Beginning today, individuals over the age of 75 can make appointments utilizing the following tools:
Healthcare Provider: Many residents have already been or will be contacted to schedule an appointment by their healthcare provider if their provider is participating in the state’s vaccine program. Not all providers are administering the vaccine. A list of participating providers is available at ct.gov/covidvaccine. Residents are urged not to contact their physician or healthcare provider directly for COVID vaccine appointments.
Online: A form can be accessed online at ct.gov/covidvaccine that allows individuals to schedule an appointment through the web-based Vaccine Administration Management System (VAMS).
Telephone: Those without internet access can call Connecticut’s COVID Vaccine Appointment Assistance Line at 877-918-2224. The phone system was created in partnership with the Department of Public Health and United Way of Connecticut and is specifically targeted to provide support for eligible vaccine recipients who have limited technology access, or who have language, disability, or other barriers that could prevent them from using existing self-scheduling options successfully. The line will take calls on Mondays through Fridays from 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. and will offer a call-back option when all contact specialists are busy serving other callers. The team will aim to return calls as soon as possible, with the goal of same-day response.
Further details on phase 1b eligibility will be forthcoming and will include guidance for employers, employees, self-employed, and other individuals on when and how to schedule vaccine appointments and where vaccinations will be available.
Providers may fill appointments with other eligible phase 1b populations if spots are available.
“The Connecticut Department of Public Health has worked diligently with our healthcare partners across the state to increase access to the vaccine, but I must continue to urge patience at this point in time,” Governor Lamont said. “We know many people are excited to receive the vaccine and the promise of the future that comes with it, but we are limited in our ability to distribute them purely based on the amount we receive from the federal government. We are hopeful we will see increased allocations in the coming weeks and months, which will lead to even more light at the end of the tunnel.”
“Thousands of Connecticut residents have already received their first round of the vaccine, and second-dose shots started last week,” Connecticut Public Health Acting Commissioner Dr. Deidre Gifford said. “With the start of phase 1b, we are bringing on additional capacity to administer the vaccine to tens of thousands more Connecticut residents – protecting our seniors, our workforce, and the most vulnerable among us. Vaccinating millions of Connecticut citizens will take time and I urge patience and continued vigilance, including wearing face masks, social distancing and avoiding large gatherings. Our state’s approach has been balanced, allowing for flexibility when it comes to who gets vaccinated, while ensuring as many of our vulnerable residents are at the front of the line during this phase.”
To date, more than 160,000 people in Connecticut have received the vaccine during phase 1a, which began December 14 and includes population groups such as healthcare personnel, residents and staff of nursing homes and assisted living facilities, and medical first responders.
Connecticut ranks number five nationally in the percentage of population that have been vaccinated so far.
For the most up-to-date information on COVID-19 vaccination distribution plans in Connecticut, visit ct.gov/covidvaccine.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Gov. Ned Lamont) Life Thu, 14 Jan 2021 07:30:28 -0500 Maritime Aquarium's New Exhibit A Slug's Life: Facing the Climate Endgame, Opens Jan. 16 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/places/46293-maritime-aquarium-s-new-exhibit-a-slug-s-life-facing-the-climate-endgame-opens-jan-1646293-maritime-aquarium-s-new-exhibit-a-slug-s-life-facing-the-climate-endgame-opens-jan-16 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/places/46293-maritime-aquarium-s-new-exhibit-a-slug-s-life-facing-the-climate-endgame-opens-jan-1646293-maritime-aquarium-s-new-exhibit-a-slug-s-life-facing-the-climate-endgame-opens-jan-16
Marvel at the fascinating forms and adaptations of animals from ocean reefs and freshwater streams – and discover the important warnings they can tell us – in “A Slug’s Life: Facing the Climate Endgame,” a special exhibit that showcases live creatures with their representations in art, opening Jan. 16 in The Maritime Aquarium at Norwalk.
Stars of the new exhibit are an order of mollusks called nudibranchs known for their striking forms and brilliant colors. Nicknamed “sea slugs,” nudibranchs occur in some 3,000 species in oceans all around the world. (Some two dozen are found in Long Island Sound.)
In addition to live nudibranchs and other mollusks, “A Slug’s Life” will feature nudibranchs depicted in onyx and marble sculptures by Gar Waterman of New Haven, as well as nudibranch photographs by divers from all around the world.
“This exhibit represents a revolutionary new approach for The Maritime Aquarium, and one that is relatively unique among aquariums,” said Jason Patlis, the Aquarium’s president and CEO. “By bringing together live animals, sculptures and photographic images to showcase these really remarkable animals and their fight for survival against climate change, we are telling a powerful story to multiple audiences through multiple media.”
Nudibranchs are generally less than 3 inches long. Because these tiny creatures react very quickly to environmental change, they’re considered by scientists to be an “indicator species.”
“Divers like to seek out these pretty little animals to photograph, and so the notable presence – or sudden absence – of sensitive animals like nudibranchs might indicate the health of a marine environment, or possibly ‘red flag’ an issue before it becomes obvious,” said Barrett Christie, the Aquarium’s director of Animal Husbandry. “So even without special equipment, researchers may be able to get an idea of how well a reef is doing by looking for nudibranchs.”
Besides the live nudibranchs, “A Slug’s Life” will display an assortment of other live mollusks in diverse shapes and sizes – some with shells, some without – including a common octopus, sea hares, conchs, abalone, giant clams and Indo-Pacific snails.
Plus, the exhibit will include a display of live freshwater mussels, another “indicator species” that – as a group – are considered the most endangered animals in North America. By their filtering water in streams and rivers, freshwater mussels play a critical role in keeping ecosystems healthy, yet 35 species have gone extinct since 1900 and the remaining species’ populations have declined by about 70 percent.
Blending nature with art, "A Slug’s Life” will display more than a dozen dynamic sculptures of nudibranchs by Gar Waterman, son of pioneering underwater filmmaker Stan Waterman (“The Deep”). The younger Waterman spent a formative year at the ages of 9 to 10 in Tahiti, where his father was filming a National Geographic special. Waterman says that watershed year of almost daily contact with marine life on the South Pacific barrier reefs established a visual foundation of marine imagery that endures as a primary source of inspiration for his sculpture. After college at Dartmouth, he spent seven years in Italy learning to carve stone, eventually returning to establish West Rock Studio in New Haven, where he has lived and worked for the last 25 years.
Waterman considers himself to be “the world’s only stone sea slug sculptor.”
“Of all the strange creatures to be found underwater, nudibranchs are just bizarre and colorful enough to catch the public's eye and be tapped as heroes of biodiversity,” Waterman has said of his art. “Any means of presenting the incredible biodiversity that is at risk in the world’s oceans to a generally disengaged public carries a potential for sparking positive change.”
“A Slug’s Life” also showcases beautiful portraits of nudibranchs on ocean reefs taken by a diverse roster of renowned underwater photographers from around the world: Gordon Tillen (the Philippines), Keith Ellenbogen (New York City), Kevin Lee (California), Alicia Hermosilla (Mexico), Jim Anderson (Scotland) and Emanuel Gonçalves (Portugal).
“The diversity of artists who are joining forces in this story of ‘A Slug’s Life: Facing the Climate Endgame’ underscores the most important message of the exhibit: that the ocean inspires us in many different ways, and yet it is in trouble, and we need to act now to save it,” Patlis said.
“A Slug’s Life: Facing the Climate Endgame” will be open through June 13 and is free with Aquarium admission. In conjunction with the exhibit, The Maritime Aquarium will be offering new educational programming and additional events during the run.
Learn more about the Aquarium’s exhibits, educational programs and conservation efforts at www.maritimeaquarium.org.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Dave Sigworth) Places Wed, 13 Jan 2021 15:16:42 -0500 Federation for Jewish Philanthropy of Upper Fairfield County Hosts: A Jurassic Park Agricultural Miracle in Israel https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46291-a-jurassic-park-agricultural-miracle-in-israel46291-a-jurassic-park-agricultural-miracle-in-israel https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46291-a-jurassic-park-agricultural-miracle-in-israel46291-a-jurassic-park-agricultural-miracle-in-israel
What does a 2,000-year-old date taste like?
Hear from scientists who coaxed a biblical Judean date palm to bear fruit
In September, Israeli scientists from the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies and Hadassah Medical Center traveled back in time two millennia, becoming the first people to sample dates from trees extinct since the biblical period.
Dr. Elaine Solowey, director of the Center for Sustainable Agriculture of the Arava Institute, and Dr. Sarah Sallon, director of the Louis L. Borick Natural Medicine Research Center of Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem, harvested ancient dates in the culmination of an ambitious, decades-long experiment to raise the biblical-era date palm, Phoenix dactylifera, from the dead.
On January 26, Dr. Solowey and David Lehrer, executive director of the Arava Institute, will tell this miraculous story live on Zoom.
The program, open to the community free of charge, is hosted by the Federation for Jewish Philanthropy of Upper Fairfield County (Conn.) in partnership with the Arava Institute, the Consulate General of Israel to New England, and more than 30 Jewish federations across North America.
“I’ve been following the story of Dr. Solowey’s work on the Judean date palm for the past decade,” says Federation CEO David Weisberg, who will facilitate the conversation and who has a past professional relationship with the Arava Institute. “Bringing back a tree and its fruit from extinction is truly a real-life Jurassic Park story.”
The researchers believe that the dates were native to ancient Egypt and the Arabian Peninsula, and hybridized in the ancient Land of Israel. The Arava-Hadassah experiment seeks to rediscover the origins of the historic date-palm population and confirm the date seeds’ long-term durability, while shedding light on ancient cultivation techniques that nurtured this unique fruit and exploring potential relevance for modern date agronomy.
“The harvest of the biblical date palms brought years of innovative scientific research to fruition,” says Lehrer. “We proved that we can not only restore an ancient variety to the land but showed how scientific collaboration and academic partnership benefits all the people of the Middle East.” [more]
Photo: Researchers Dr. Elaine Soloway of the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies (left) with Dr. Sarah Sallon of Hadassah Medical Center, moments after picking the first harvest of dates | PHOTO CREDIT: MARCOS SCHONHOLZ
Program details:
A Jurassic Park Agricultural Miracle in Israel
Tuesday, Jan. 26, 12 noon
Open to the community free of charge
Registration: jewishphilanthropyct.org/datepalm
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Federation for Jewish Philanthropy) Events Wed, 13 Jan 2021 06:07:07 -0500 Lamont Announces Deployment of More Than 100 Members of the Connecticut National Guard To Washington, D.C. https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/politics/46290-lamont-announces-deployment-of-more-than-100-members-of-the-connecticut-national-guard-to-washington-d-c46290-lamont-announces-deployment-of-more-than-100-members-of-the-connecticut-national-guard-to-washington-d-c https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/politics/46290-lamont-announces-deployment-of-more-than-100-members-of-the-connecticut-national-guard-to-washington-d-c46290-lamont-announces-deployment-of-more-than-100-members-of-the-connecticut-national-guard-to-washington-d-c
Governor Ned Lamont today announced that at the request of United States National Guard officials, he is authorizing the deployment of more than 100 members of the Connecticut National Guard to Washington, D.C. to aid and facilitate the peaceful transition of presidential power.
This includes members of the Connecticut National Guard’s Military Police, as well as two patrol explosive-detection dog teams that are dual-trained for police patrol activities and explosive detection.
Additionally, the state’s Air Guard has also placed C-130H aircraft and crews on alert status, which are capable of moving personnel throughout the country if needed.
“The State of Connecticut stands ready to help ensure the peaceful transition of power and protect our democracy,” Governor Lamont said. “May God bless our brave men and women in uniform, and the United States of America.”
Governor Lamont stressed that the deployment of these Connecticut National Guard members will not impact the state’s ongoing efforts to contain and combat the COVID-19 virus.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Gov. Ned Lamont) Politics Tue, 12 Jan 2021 12:44:03 -0500 Golf Performance Center's Virtual Open House on January 30 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46288-golf-performance-center-s-virtual-open-house-on-january-3046288-golf-performance-center-s-virtual-open-house-on-january-30 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46288-golf-performance-center-s-virtual-open-house-on-january-3046288-golf-performance-center-s-virtual-open-house-on-january-30
The Golf Performance Center is hosting a Virtual Open House on Saturday, January 30th. Registrants can join online anytime between 10am-2pm.
This event is focused on the three program offerings for junior golfers; Junior Academy, 2021 Summer Program, and Ethan Allen Prep. Registrants will virtually meet our leadership team (Founder Roger Knick, Director of EAP Charlie Wampfler, Director of Performance Tyler Campbell, and Director of Coaching Dennis Hillman), browse useful links, watch videos, as well as schedule a conversation with our Lead Recruiter, Tom Bopp.
Register here to receive the open house link and schedule a conversation.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (GPC) Events Tue, 12 Jan 2021 07:33:46 -0500 Golden Globe Award-winner Jeffrey Tambor returns to The Ridgefield Playhouse with new acting classes for beginner and advanced students https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46287-golden-globe-award-winner-jeffrey-tambor-returns-to-the-ridgefield-playhouse-with-new-acting-classes-for-beginner-and-advanced-students46287-golden-globe-award-winner-jeffrey-tambor-returns-to-the-ridgefield-playhouse-with-new-acting-classes-for-beginner-and-advanced-students https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/events/46287-golden-globe-award-winner-jeffrey-tambor-returns-to-the-ridgefield-playhouse-with-new-acting-classes-for-beginner-and-advanced-students46287-golden-globe-award-winner-jeffrey-tambor-returns-to-the-ridgefield-playhouse-with-new-acting-classes-for-beginner-and-advanced-students
There’s always more to learn in the acting world. Make 2021 the year that you take your acting aspirations to the next level! With Zoom classes at The Ridgefield Playhouse beginner and advanced acting students will have the opportunity to work with Golden Globe Award-winning actor Jeffrey Tambor (The Larry Sanders Show, Arrested Development, Transparent), with two new workshops – Scene Study Tuesdays, January 26 – March 16, 2021 and The Art of the Personal Monologue Mondays, February 1 – March 22, 2021.
These Zoom workshops will give everyone, no matter where you live, the opportunity to work with a critically acclaimed actor who has been captivating audiences in both comedic and dramatic projects for more than forty years! In addition to his popular Zoom classes, he currently hosts the “Acting Schmacting” podcast where he has interviewed countless legends including Ron Howard, Angelica Huston, Dick Cavett and more. This class is part of our Classes @ The Playhouse Series and Adam Broderick Salon & Spa Whole New You Series with support from Reliance Merchant Services and HamletHub Community Events Series.
During Jeffrey Tambor’s 8-week Zoom Scene Study course you will work with Golden Globe and Emmy Award winning actor Jeffrey Tambor (“The Larry Sanders Show,” “Arrested Development,” “Transparent”), as he returns to the Ridgefield Playhouse! Tuesdays, January 26 – March 16 from 7 – 10pm. This advanced class is a continuation of his previous classes – moving from monologues to scene performance. Using works from plays, films or scenes that have been written by other students, this class will focus on elements such as character development and behavior, and being true and personal in the work. Jeffrey provides a safe space so that students can explore and have fun while learning how to present an authentic performance. This is for returning students or those who have some experience or background in acting and writing. Students will be expected to spend time outside of the classroom rehearsing (via Zoom) with their scene partner.
If you ever wanted to dip your toe into the acting world, here is your chance. Join Golden Globe and Emmy Award Winner Jeffrey Tambor on Mondays, February 1 – March 22 from 7 – 10pm, as he takes you through writing and performing the Art of the Personal Monologue. This is a great Zoom course for beginner actors. Even if you don’t think you can write, you can tell your story and that’s the first step in becoming an actor. This empowering class focuses on identifying and conquering the fears that keep us from trusting our own creative voices. Students will walk away from this workshop with a five-minute monologue – perfect for an audition — as they move on with more courage, confidence and creativity in their career. Jeffrey Tambor has created some of the most iconic characters in television history from The Larry Sanders Show’s Hank Kingsley to Arrested Development’s George and Oscar Bluth to Transparent’s Maura Pfefferman. Throughout his career, Tambor has developed a unique teaching style based on his own artistic philosophy.
To register for Jeffrey Tambor’s classes ($495) call the box office at 203-438-5795 or visit our website ridgefieldplayhouse.org.Scholarships available through the generosity of the Beth and Bruce Becker Scholarship Fund. The Ridgefield Playhouse is a non-profit performing arts center located at 80 East Ridge, parallel to Main Street, Ridgefield, CT. Follow us on Instagram: @RidgefieldPlayhouse Twitter: @RPlayhouse Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ridgefieldplayhouse
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Ridgefield Playhouse) Events Tue, 12 Jan 2021 03:30:49 -0500 Norwalk Health Department Offering FREE Radon Testing Kits https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/publicsafety/46283-norwalk-health-department-offering-free-radon-testing-kits46283-norwalk-health-department-offering-free-radon-testing-kits https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/publicsafety/46283-norwalk-health-department-offering-free-radon-testing-kits46283-norwalk-health-department-offering-free-radon-testing-kits
January is National Radon Action Month (NORWALK, Connecticut) – January is National Radon Action Month, and your state and local health departments urge you to learn more about radon—a leading cause of lung cancer—and test for radon in your home. Due to COVID-19, more people are finding themselves working from home and learning remotely. This is a great time to ensure that your home environment is safe for you and your family by checking radon levels. The Norwalk Health Department will mail free radon testing kits to interested residents, while supplies last.
The kits were provided as part of the Radon Partnership from the Connecticut Department of Public Health (CT DPH). To receive a free radon kit please complete this short survey https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/NHDRADON. Kits will be mailed out once a week to applicants. Radon is an invisible, odorless, tasteless radioactive gas released in soil, rock, and water from the breakdown of uranium. It can be drawn into homes and other buildings through cracks and other openings in the foundation.
Long-term exposure to high levels of radon gas indoors is the leading cause of lung cancer in nonsmokers, and smokers are at an even higher risk of lung cancer when exposed to radon. Radon levels vary throughout Connecticut. Levels of radon may vary in each home depending on the structure of the building; your home can have elevated levels of radon while your neighbor’s home does not. Because you cannot see, taste, or smell radon, the only way to tell if you have a radon problem in your home is to test for it.
Testing involves placing a small device in your home for at least 48 hours and then sending the device to a laboratory for results. If you cannot get a kit from the Health Department, some low cost testing kits are available from the American Lung Association’s online store (lung.org). You can also get testing kits at your local hardware store. If radon levels are high (4 pCi/L or higher), CT DPH strongly recommends that homeowners hire a professional to help lower the levels. These professionals are trained to reduce radon in homes by using ventilation and depressurization systems and other techniques. As with many home repairs, the cost of fixing radon problems varies.
CT DPH estimates that the average cost of this service ranges from $1,200 to $1,500. For more information and a list of radon professionals please visit the CT DPH website (http://www.ct.gov/dph/radon).
If you need assistance with filling out the radon survey or have any additional questions, please call (203) 854-7790.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (City of Norwalk) Public safety Mon, 11 Jan 2021 07:27:28 -0500 Valley East Buys 2150 Post Rd., Fairfield https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/places/46284-valley-east-buys-2150-post-rd-fairfield46284-valley-east-buys-2150-post-rd-fairfield https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/places/46284-valley-east-buys-2150-post-rd-fairfield46284-valley-east-buys-2150-post-rd-fairfield
Fairfield, CT - Valley East Management has purchased 2150 Post Road in Fairfield, Connecticut.
2150 Post Road is a 50,000 square foot, class A, boutique office building located in the coastal town of Fairfield, Connecticut. The building was built in 1986 and has been meticulously maintained since construction. Known as “The Mill River Building” in Fairfield, 2150 Post Road is an architectural icon with convenient proximity to I-95 and walkability to the Fairfield Metro-North train station (0.6+/- miles). 2150 Post Road consistently maintains a stable occupancy, although choice suites are available for lease.
New ownership Valley East Building Management made its entry into the Connecticut market last year purchasing both 40 Richards Avenue and 200 Connecticut Avenue in Norwalk. Valley East is known for its hands-on approach to managing and leasing suburban office buildings.
Operating partner Jeffrey Supinsky is accessible to all tenants, anytime. “I pride myself on personal communication. Tenants can reach me by cell phone any day, any time, for any reason,” said Jeffrey of his management style.
Partner Bob Agahi reiterated, “We remain committed to suburban office. The pandemic has corporate America rethinking urban office occupancy, and the suburban office sector is poised to capitalize as a work-from-home alternative." Both partners agree that they "see value in suburban marketplaces and are looking to grow our portfolio substantially in the years ahead."
The group recently renovated the entire third floor of 40 Richards Avenue, turning the 18,000 sq ft space into a modern co-working space called NORWORX, which includes private closed-door offices, conference rooms, common areas, and all-inclusive modern amenities from advanced technology capabilities to building perks such as covered parking and a workout facility. A hospital grade air filtration system and strict PPE protocols are practiced, providing a safe-space productivity environment for one of the fastest growing virtual office segments in the country now that employees are feeling the need to separate their work and personal lives, reports the US Chamber of Commerce, and companies now need to provide “de-densified” workspace closer to home for its employees due to the shift to remote-first workforces.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (MaxEx PR) Places Mon, 11 Jan 2021 07:01:28 -0500 Rowayton Arts Center Invites Artists to Become Exhibiting Members – Drop off date January 28, 2021 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/neighbors/46282-rowayton-arts-center-invites-artists-to-become-exhibiting-members-161037542246282-rowayton-arts-center-invites-artists-to-become-exhibiting-members-1610375422 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/neighbors/46282-rowayton-arts-center-invites-artists-to-become-exhibiting-members-161037542246282-rowayton-arts-center-invites-artists-to-become-exhibiting-members-1610375422
The Rowayton Arts Center (RAC) will review artwork by local artists interested in becoming exhibiting members January 29, 2021. Artists should bring items for consideration to the gallery on Thursday, January 28 from 12 to 5 pm. The artist selection will take place on Friday, January 29 with notifications sent to accepted artists the following week. Artists should plan on picking up their artwork on Friday, January 29 from 12 to 5 pm or, with prearranged permission, Saturday, January 30 from 10 am to 1 pm.
See the full Exhibiting Member Prospectus at rowaytonarts.org/prospectuses. Benefits for RAC Exhibiting Members include entry into the Holiday Gift Show as well as the open juried exhibitions and members-only exhibitions.
There is also the opportunity to participate in off-site shows and to have the artist’s information displayed in the Exhibiting Artists Online Gallery on the RAC website (fee required). Plus, all Supporting and Exhibiting Members enjoy a 10% discount on each RAC purchase at $100 or more.
]]> marketing@rowaytonarts.org (Rowayton Arts Center) Neighbors Mon, 11 Jan 2021 04:30:22 -0500 Lamont Directs Flags Lowered in Honor of U.S. Capitol Police Officers https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/politics/46285-lamont-directs-flags-lowered-in-honor-of-u-s-capitol-police-officers46285-lamont-directs-flags-lowered-in-honor-of-u-s-capitol-police-officers https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/politics/46285-lamont-directs-flags-lowered-in-honor-of-u-s-capitol-police-officers46285-lamont-directs-flags-lowered-in-honor-of-u-s-capitol-police-officers
Governor Ned Lamont today announced that he is directing U.S. and State of Connecticut flags lowered to half-staff as a mark of respect for the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers Brian D. Sicknick and Howard Liebengood, whose deaths followed a violent riot at the U.S. Capitol. Flags should be lowered immediately and remain at half-staff until sunset on Wednesday, January 13, 2021.
Accordingly, since no flag should fly higher than the U.S. flag, all other flags, including state, municipal, corporate, or otherwise, should also be lowered during this same duration of time.
“Officers Sicknick and Liebengood dedicated themselves to protecting the U.S. Capitol and by extension acted to protect democracy itself,” Governor Lamont said. “We honor their lives and the service of all the Capitol Police officers who guarded the Capitol against a violent attempt to overthrow our government. On behalf of everyone in the State of Connecticut, I extend my deepest condolences to their family and friends, as well as to their Capitol Police colleagues.”
]]> kerry@ducey.org (Gov. Ned Lamont) Politics Sun, 10 Jan 2021 13:01:46 -0500 CT COVID-19 Vaccine: Phases and Eligibility https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/life/46286-ct-covid-19-vaccine-phases-and-eligibility46286-ct-covid-19-vaccine-phases-and-eligibility https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/life/46286-ct-covid-19-vaccine-phases-and-eligibility46286-ct-covid-19-vaccine-phases-and-eligibility
Connecticut is currently in Phase 1a of our statewide vaccine roll-out.
Eligible citizens, based on recommendations from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) are:
Healthcare Personnel: All paid and unpaid persons serving in healthcare settings who have the potential for direct or indirect exposure to patients of infectious materials.
Long-Term Care Facility Residents: Adults who reside in facilities that provide a range of services, including medical and personal care, to persons who are unable to live independently.
Medical First Responders: High risk of exposure to COVID-19 through their response to medical emergencies such as Emergency Medical Technicians, Police, and Fire.
NOTE: Phase 1a does not include healthcare personnel that do not have the potential for direct or indirect exposure to patients or infectious materials. For example, telehealth services.
How to get access to a vaccination
Healthcare Personnel should contact their Employer Coordinator, who has been designated to ensure access to the vaccine.
Vaccine administration for healthcare workers will be available at hospitals, outpatient clinics, and local health departments.
Residents of long-term care facilities should ask facility leadership about reviewing vaccine. All vaccine clinics in long-term care facilities will be administered by CVS and Walgreens.
Upcoming Phases
Phase 1b
Three primary groups will be eligible for the vaccine in Phase 1b:
Front line essential workers
Individuals and staff in congregate settings
Individuals 75 years of and older (please see additional info below)
Based on this initial overview of eligible groups, the State will look to enter Phase 1b during the month of January, 2021.
Information about scheduling a vaccination for those 75 and older is coming soon, and will be posted here, and on CT's main COVID-19 Vaccination Portal.
For all others: The COVID-19 Vaccine Advisory Group will next meet on January 14th. We will have more information for employers and other individuals following this meeting. Please visit our main Vaccination Portal regularly for all the latest updates.
Phase 1c
Updated information will be coming soon!
Future Phases
(Summer and Fall, 2021)
COVID-19 vaccinations will be available to eligible members of the general public starting this summer. At that time you should expect to have access to the vaccine at the same locations where you would normally get vaccinated: pharmacies, doctors offices, community health clinics, local health clinics, as well as through other providers.
Our decisions about priority order for Phase 1b and beyond will be made based on ACIP guidelines, our State’s allocation subcommittee advice, and ultimately the decision of the Governor. ACIP and our allocation subcommittee are making their recommendations based on multiple factors – including maximizing the benefits of vaccine access, mitigating the spread of the pandemic, and mitigating health inequities.
]]> kerry@ducey.org (CT.Gov) Life Sun, 10 Jan 2021 12:11:30 -0500 Rowayton Arts Center "From the RAC Studio: Instructors and Students Show" January 10 through January 30 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/places/46279-rowayton-arts-center-160987283946279-rowayton-arts-center-1609872839 https://news.hamlethub.com/norwalk/places/46279-rowayton-arts-center-160987283946279-rowayton-arts-center-1609872839
A new exhibition at the Rowayton Arts Center (RAC), "From the RAC Studio: Instructors and Students Show" will be on view January 10 through January 30, 2021. This display features artwork by over 100 students and instructors involved with classes at the center.
The opening reception is free and open to the public with limited admission on Sunday, January 10 from 2 pm to 6 pm. Gallery hours are Tuesday through Friday from 12 pm to 5 pm and Saturday from 10 am to 1 pm.
]]> marketing@rowaytonarts.org (Rowayton Art Center) Places Wed, 06 Jan 2021 12:33:13 -0500
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CANES Sets Sail Aboard USS McCampbell
U.S. Navy, Northrop Grumman Complete Installation of Next-Generation Tactical Afloat Network for Guided-Missile Destroyer
SAN DIEGO â Nov. 25, 2013 â The U.S. Navy and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) have successfully installed Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES) on the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell.
The installation was completed during the ship's approximate five-month scheduled maintenance at U.S. Fleet Activities Yokosuka, Japan. Prior to installation, Northrop Grumman produced, integrated and tested the CANES system and delivered it for acceptance to the Tactical Networks Program Office, Program Executive Office of Command, Control, Communications, Computers and Intelligence (C4I). During installation, Northrop Grumman assisted with the system's application integration and operational checkout.
"We have system 'light off.' McCampbell is underway and CANES is performing well with sailors using email, video and secure voice capabilities," said Mike Twyman, vice president and general manager, defense systems division, Northrop Grumman Information Systems. "We're pleased to be getting excellent feedback for the quality of our work and the improved C4I services provided by CANES."
Northrop Grumman has delivered 11 CANES systems to the Navy with 10 for guided-missile destroyers and one for a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. CANES installation aboard the destroyer USS Milius is progressing as part of the ship's extended drydock availability scheduled to last approximately 11 months.
Consolidation through CANES will eliminate many legacy standalone shipboard networks and provide a common computing environment for dozens of C4I applications. Northrop Grumman applies its Modular Open Systems Approach-Competitive TM (MOSA-C TM ) strategic business and engineering process to enable continuous competition on the program, thereby driving down life cycle costs. MOSA-C TM ensures vendor-neutral, enduring solutions that improve interoperability and lower the total cost of ownership.
CONTACT: Sudi Bruni
sudi.bruni@ngc.com
Sudi Bruni
Missile Defense and Protective Systems & Unmanned Ground Vehicles
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Solo Show (Art Concert) Announcement
It is due time that Obskyura present her body of work in a solo show format. This has been in deep thought for some time and 2015 will be the year to begin planning to make this a reality. Date of the show and participating Artists will be announced once the concept is developed in greater detail. Keep in touch. Love, Obskyura
OBSKYURA – The Documentary by Melissa M. Gordon
OBSKYURA profiles Toronto burlesque dancer and performance artist who goes by the stage name, “Obskyura.” This documentary film explores the character’s psyche in her quest for self-expression, but more importantly, self-discovery. The film considers her personal experiences within the world of rejection and acceptance, further exploring how these problems are manifest throughout her performance work and personal life. Filmmaker/Editor/Cinematographer: Melissa M. Gordon Burlesque Videographer: Tatiana Rodriguez Bathtub Performance Art – “Psychosuicide”: Obskyura Music: Ian Hughes, Chaz Kkoshi, Zacharia Hajishacalli, and Phillip Guyler The opening of this documentary was screened at the TIFF Bell lightbox theatre in Toronto, On, Canada last…
Birthing Art: A Percy Katt Production
An incredible Percy Katt Production. Birthing Art with some of my favourite and dearest of friends – Percy Katt, Mahogany Storm and Obskyura (models) Artistic Direction – Percy Katt. Photography – Greg Wong. Behind the scenes of the Production. A short film clip from “Obskyura” the documentary. Filmed by Melissa Gordon (Artwork above) top: Obskyura, left: Mahogany Storm, right: Percy Katt Check out Percy Katt’s work at http://www.glitterlust.com
Temple of Obi: A Series of Spatial and Body Deconstruction
This is the beginning series of spatial and body exploration of the personal and performance temple. Deconstruction, reconfiguration and creation.
Metamorphosex
Photo by: Photolena http://www.photolena.ca @ The Firecrackers present “Under the Big Top” Show
Death of Obskyura: Psychosuicide Film
Check out the Psychosuicide film which was created for a Political Burlesque show in August 2011 (Politico produced by Atomic Cherries) in the films section
One of a series high-key minimal, porcelain-type body of work with Anthony Gordon (unrestricted version found in Underworld X)
Divine Madness
I’ve often contemplated the intricacies and mysteries of depression. At a young age I attended an Art School for years and wondered why our department (visual arts department students in particular) were often always in a state of turmoil. Growing up, this seemed to be a natural state of mind for me and was fortunate that I had Art as a mode of expression since childhood. I’ve looked back at drawings and paintings I did as a child before I could even write and was not at all surprised at the dark imagery I used to depict in my art…
RE-EMERGENCE: New York City Happenings
There is calm at the end of every storm. Correct? Photo by: Robin Souma (below) For a couple of months I had to take a hiatus from performing due to very personal issues. I laid in the dark for weeks in deep contemplation and was not anticipating to come out to perform again. Life presented me with one of the biggest choices. I was crippled with emotion and hindered by my thoughts. I decided after weeks to force myself full throttle back into the light of performing again. This emergence happened in New York City at the New York Burlesque…
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Deliveroo forks out to riders in latest gig economy rights claim
The company is to pay thousands of pounds to 50 riders after a claim over the rights of gig economy workers, Sky News learns.
By Mark Kleinman, City editor
Thursday 28 June 2018 19:09, UK
Image: Fifty Deliveroo drivers will get a pay-out
Deliveroo is to pay a six-figure bill to settle an employment rights battle brought by dozens of its riders, underlining continuing tensions over the treatment of so-called gig economy workers.
Sky News has learnt that the food delivery app has agreed to award 50 of its British couriers sums "in the low thousands of pounds" each to settle the claim before it was formally heard at an employment tribunal in London.
The settlement includes no admission of liability, according to a source close to Deliveroo, meaning that it is not expected to change the self-employed status of the company's army of riders.
Brought by the law firm Leigh Day, the claim was one of a string of such cases which have brought into sharp focus the dividing lines between gig economy companies like Uber and their freelance workforces.
One insider familiar with the settlement said it would have "no direct impact on Deliveroo's fleet of moped drivers and cyclists nor the company's business model of using self-employed riders to deliver food".
It is, however, thought to be the first such case that Deliveroo has agreed to make payments in relation to, following a victory for the company in a similar claim last year.
A source close to Deliveroo said the cost of the settlement was lower than the prospective legal costs to the company if the cases had run their course at the tribunal.
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"The company will continue to focus on providing the well-paid, flexible work that riders value," the source said.
"Courts have carefully considered Deliveroo's model and concluded that riders working with the company are self-employed."
The long-term legal landscape for the treatment of gig economy workers remains unclear, with the Supreme Court ruling earlier this month that a long-standing Pimlico Plumbers contractor was entitled to benefits such as holiday pay.
Image: Former Pimlico Plumbers employee Gary Smith at the Supreme Court
Experts said, however, that the case of Gary Smith was unlikely to set a precedent for workers at other companies such as Deliveroo and Uber.
Uber, the world's most richly-valued ride-hailing app, has had mixed fortunes from a string of similar rulings.
The battle over employment rights has also underlined the disparity between the benefits enjoyed by full-time workers and contractors at some of the UK's fastest-growing technology start-ups.
Will Shu, Deliveroo's founder, recently announced that permanent workers would be handed stock options worth an average of £5,000 as the prelude to a stock market flotation.
The restaurant delivery app's couriers, however, will not share in the windfall because of their self-employed status.
Deliveroo was valued at well over £1.5bn last year when it raised a new round of funding from the asset managers Fidelity and T Rowe Price.
Image: Uber has both won and lost similar cases against it
Bankers believe an initial public offering, which could take place in London or New York, is unlikely for at least 18 months.
In his note to staff, which was seen by Sky News, Mr Shu said he wanted "all of you to be owners".
Mr Shu, an American who founded Deliveroo in 2013, has expanded it to a dozen countries and overseen explosive revenue growth as consumers increasingly turn to the convenience of home delivery services.
Rivals in the sector include UberEats and Just Eat, which has seen its London-listed shares perform strongly.
Deliveroo partners with thousands of restaurants, including chains such as Wagamama and Nando's, and takes a commission from each order that it fulfils.
Deliveroo declined to comment, while Leigh Day could not be reached.
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Jammu and Kashmir to be formally split as unrest continues
Around a dozen people from outside the state have been killed by suspected militants fighting for Kashmir's independence.
Emily Mee
News reporter @EmilyMeeSky
Wednesday 30 October 2019 09:19, UK
Image: Indian paramilitary troopers patrol a street in Srinagar
India is to formally split Jammu and Kashmir into two separate territories on Thursday, following months of security clampdowns.
The state will be divided into the territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh - both to be directly ruled from New Delhi.
Tensions over the move have sparked violent protests in recent weeks, while around a dozen people from outside the state have been killed by militants.
Kashmir is claimed by both India and Pakistan and the countries have fought two wars in an attempt to take control.
Why is Kashmir such a flashpoint?
India's government imposed a security lockdown after withdrawing Kashmir's autonomy in August, pouring thousands more troops into the region and arresting hundreds to prevent violent uprisings.
Severe restrictions were imposed on travel and telephone and internet lines cut.
Although some of the measures have since been scaled back, many schools, shops and restaurants remain empty, with residents choosing to stay in their homes out of either fear or defiance.
More from Kashmir
Jammu and Kashmir remains under curfew and lockdown a year after losing special status
Labour MP Debbie Abrahams, who holds Kashmir role, barred entry into India
Kashmir: Dozens killed after avalanches and heavy snowfall
Imran Khan: Pakistan prime minister warns of Kashmir 'bloodbath' over curfew
Imran Khan: Pakistan PM vows 'befitting' response if India attacks Pakistan-administered Kashmir
Kashmir: 30 people detained in Srinagar as protests continue
On Tuesday, suspected militants fighting for Kashmir's independence shot dead five construction workers who had come to work from eastern India.
Image: An Indian policeman chases Kashmiri protesters
Authorities said they believed the killings aimed to deter those from outside the state from working in Kashmir.
Earlier this month, militants targeted truckers involved in the apple trade in the southern part of the state.
Protesters have thrown stones at security forces and crowds have gathered in the city of Srinagar in defiance of the Indian government's clampdown.
Wajahat Habibullah, a former bureaucrat who served in Kashmir, said the loss of its statehood was humiliating for Kashmiris.
Protests over Kashmir crisis in London
"Whatever the attitude of (federal) governments in the past, they at least felt they had something of their own. Now, there is a kind of feeling of having lost whatever freedom they had," he said.
However, the Buddhist-dominated region of Ladakh has sought to disentangle itself from Kashmir, claiming the turmoil had hurt its tourism and investment in infrastructure.
A top official in New Delhi said: "There are three parts to this story, Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. The problem is confined to Kashmir and that too a handful of districts. Why should the rest of the state suffer."
Image: Motorists are questioned in Jammu under the lockdown
Separatists have been fighting against Indian rule in the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley for decades.
About 70,000 people have been killed in the armed uprising and India's military crackdown.
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Yale Authority on Infertility in the Middle East Is Twice Honored
Yale Professor Marcia Inhorn, a leading scholar in the field of medical anthropology, has been named the first Diane Middlebrook and Carl Djerassi Visiting Professor at the Centre for Gender Studies at the University of Cambridge in honor of her...
Unite For Sight hosts ninth annual global health conference at Yale
Report explores health care reform and U.S. election
Arabic and Persian medical books and manuscripts now accessible online
Yale named one of top 10 best global universities for social sciences and public health
UNICEF adviser: Children need to thrive, not just survive
Bess Connolly (1) Apply Bess Connolly filter
Michael Greenwood (1) Apply Michael Greenwood filter
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Stem Cell Donor Drives and Star-Studded DJ Benefit Planned for Sonia Akow from Push Promotion
February 18, 2013 Darren Ressler Leave a Comment
In January we reported that London-based music publicist Sonia Akow, who has worked with countless artists on the underground bass scene, was diagnosed with Leukaemia last November and now urgently needs a bone marrow transplant to save her life. Sonia’s mother died of the same disease a little over a year ago. Two stem cell donor drives have been organized in London, and Sonia is appealing for people aged 16-30 (especially those like Sonia who are of mixed heritage) to spare 20 minutes to register as a donor at one of the events listed below. To join the register (if you are 31-49 and live in the UK you can sign up at http://blood.co.uk; international registries can sign up here) all you need to do is complete a simple application form and provide a saliva sample.
Stem Cell Donor Drive 1
Tuesday 26th Feb 2-8pm
Shepherds Bar – Shepherds Building Charecroft Way, London W14 0da
Saturday 2nd March 11-5pm
The Tabernacle, 35 Powis Square, Ladbroke Grove, London W11 2ay
DJ Mag’s Carl Loben, DJ Deekline, Terry Hooligan, Biff (Functional) and others are organizing a benefit club night for Sonia called Push Play at The Egg in Kings Cross, London, on Thursday, March 28. The benefit will feature performances by Krafty Kuts, Shut Up & Dance, MJ Cole, Dub Pistols, A-Skillz, Freestylers, Deekline & Ed Solo, Atomic Hooligan, Stereo MCs, Ragga Twins and many more. More names are expected to be announced shortly.
Sonia has been a true champion of underground music — breaks, ragga, drum ‘n’ bass, dubstep, electro — over the years. Please help someone from our scene who urgently needs help by going to the stem cell drive or by simply spreading the word.
Sonia Akow from Daniel Crouch on Vimeo.
Featured Post, UK news A-Skillz, Acute Myloid Leukaemia, Atomic Hooligan, Deekline & Ed Solo, Dub Pistols, Freestylers, Krafty Kuts, MJ Cole, Push Promotion, Ragga Twins, Shut Up & Dance, Sonia Akow, Stereo MCs
Album Review: Dub Pistols / ‘Worshipping the Dollar’ (Sunday Best)
July 10, 2012 Matt Oliver Leave a Comment
UK bum-rushers Dub Pistols have festival goers ready to greedily eat from the palm of their hand. Wholly set up for the live experience, the instantaneous draw of house, drum ‘n’ bass, hip-hop and dub explodes with ragga hooks, regularly provided by Dan Bowskill, and a raft of scrumptious horn fanfares. It’s safe to say that the big beat tag that made them has long been left behind, though not totally dispensed with given the inclusion of Fatboy Slim cohort Lindy Layton, and the translation from stage to studio doesn’t come up short. With a little education lead by UK scholar Akala speaking up on “West End Story,” and narrative finding Brit-rap legend Rodney P going out of his head on the surging “Mucky Weekend,” its party-friendliness insists on pushing levels into the red. Opening ragga-house rumpus “Alive” has bass that can be heard for miles around, calling out the best of Groove Armada’s “Superstylin” and Funkstar de Luxe’s “Sun is Shining” in one fell swoop.
What the album lacks in outright originality, re-entering the home listening/live event argument again, it’s ever-ready to rev up a foolproof scatter & swing blueprint: clean, uncluttered, piece-by-piece production. More’s the point, the Barry Ashworth-helmed unit have been in the game long enough to know what makes a front row tick, pushing for crowd-surfing to become an Olympic sport so they can bring home gold.
File under: Groove Armada, Rudimental, Monkey Mafia
Music Reviews, Reviews Akala, Barry Ashworth, Dan Bowskill, Darrison, Dub Pistols, Red Star Lion, Rodney P, Sir Real, Sunday Best, Worshipping the Dollar
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Here Are Your Articles for Thursday, August 20, 2020
Dalby, Wendland & Co., P.C., Named a Top 300 Public Accounting Firm
We are truly honored to be recognized by INSIDE Public Accounting as a Top 300 Public Accounting Firm in the nation! To our clients, employees, and communities - YOU are to thank for this honor. We are grateful for your support.
HR Update with Employment Law Attorney Michael Santo
The Colorado Department of Labor and Employment has issued quite a few new and revised rules for employers. Watch Employment Law Attorney Michael Santo's update for more information.
Now Is the Time To Revisit Your Estate Plan
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused many changes in our personal and business lives — and upended the economy. For some, this makes it a good time to review their estate plan. Click through for a list of estate planning tasks you may want to address.
5 Flexible Work Arrangements That May Remain
"Flexibility" has been the word of the season, as companies and employees invent new ways of working. Click through for an introduction to a range of flexible work arrangements — which may continue even after the pandemic is over.
Inheriting an IRA: How to Handle It
IRAs are great tools for retirement planning, but are not necessarily well-suited for leaving money to heirs. Click through for an introduction to the complex rules and strategies surrounding an inherited IRA.
The State Unemployment Tax: Know the Story
The State Unemployment Tax Act is an important and complicated law that affects virtually every employer, and there are variations from state to state. Click through for an introduction to key SUTA provisions.
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GOODATTEN
Good attention span and finishes tasks, past 6 months
Group: Child Strengths and Difficulties — PERSON
For sample children age 4 to 17, GOODATTEN reports parents' responses to a question about whether, during the past 6 months, the child had "good attention span, sees chores or homework through to the end."
The interviewer began this part of the survey by stating, "I am going to read a list of items that describe children. For each item, please tell me if it has been not true, somewhat true, [or] certainly true for [sample child] during the past 6 months," and handed the respondent a flashcard listing the three acceptable responses.
Directions to Interviewers on Asking this Question
The Field Representative's Manuals for 2001 and 2003 forward directed interviewers that, when an item included two or more behaviors linked by an "or":
For those questions, emphasize the OR. Be sure that the respondent understands that the question should be answered positively if the child does ANY part of the question.
These Manuals also provided directions on how interviewers should respond if parents indicated that the child was taking medication:
If the [parent/respondent] indicates that the child is taking medication, [the parent/he/she] should answer the questions as best possible describing [their/the] child's behavior when the child is NOT on the medication. However, do not ask if the child is on medication. Only if the [parent/respondent] states that the child takes medication and they do not know how to respond to the question, inform the [parent/respondent] to answer as best as they can, describing the child when the child is NOT on the medication.
As discussed in more detail below, GOODATTEN was intended to be a measure of the child's "hyperactivity behavior." This question was part of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire Extended (SDQ-EX), which, according to the 2001 and 2003 forward Field Representative's Manuals, was included "to monitor emotional and behavioral problems in children and the impact that these problems have on children's lives."
In 2002 and 2005 forward, a brief version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, consisting of just six items, including GOODATTEN, was included in the sample child section of the NHIS. The elements of, and the interpretation of results from, the abbreviated version of the SDQ-EX in 2002 and 2005 forward are discussed toward the bottom of this variable description.
Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire Extended
GOODATTEN is part of a set of 33 questions from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire Extended (SDQ-EX) developed by Dr. Robert Goodman, Institute of Psychiatry, London, England.
As the Appendix on SDQ in the 2001 and 2003-2004 Codebook of the NHIS public use files explains:
The parent respondent version of the SDQ was added as a mental health supplement for children ages 4-17 as part of a collaborative agreement between NCHS and the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH). The first part of the SDQ consists of 25 scale items . . . These items can be divided into five subscales measuring the following psychological attributes or dimensions:
emotional symptoms;
conduct problems;
hyperactive behavior;
peer relationships;
prosocial behavior.
The survey forms for 2001 and 2004 acknowledged the debt to Dr. Goodman, as follows:
The SDQ questions are copyrighted by Robert Goodman, Ph.D., FRCPsych, MRCP. State and local agencies may use these questions without charge and without seeking separate permission provided the wording is not modified, all the questions are retained, and Dr. Goodman's copyright is acknowledged.
This information was included for legal reasons and was not shared with survey respondents. More information on the SDQ is available at www.sdqinfo.com.
Scoring Responses to SDQ-EX: Hyperactivity Behavior
As noted in the Appendix on SDQ in the 2001 and 2003-2004 Codebooks, GOODATTEN is an element of the 5-item subscale dealing with hyperactivity behavior.
The other elements of this subscale on hyperactivity behavior are:
Restless or overactive, past 6 months (OVERACTIVE)
Constantly fidgeting, past 6 months (FIDGETY)
Easily distracted, past 6 months (DISTRACTED)
Thinks before acting, past 6 months (THINKSFIRST)
Valid responses for these questions were "not true," "somewhat true," and "certainly true." A response of "not true" for OVERACTIVE, FIDGETY, and DISTRACTED (code 0 in IPUMS NHIS) implies the lowest level of hyperactive behavior; a response of "certainly true" for these variables (code 2 in IHIS) implies the highest level of hyperactive behavior; and a response of "somewhat true" for these variables (code 1 in IHIS) implies an intermediate level of hyperactive behavior. A response of "not true" for THINKSFIRST and GOODATTEN (code 2 in IHIS) implies the highest level of hyperactive behavior; a response of "certainly true" for these variables (code 0 in IHIS) implies the lowest level of hyperactive behavior; and a response of "somewhat true" for these variables (code 1 in IHIS) implies an intermediate level of hyperactive behavior. Researchers may choose to use a single variable from this set, but they can also sum the scores across the 5 variables. Summing these elements yields a total score for hyperactivity behavior ranging from 0 (the lowest level) to 10 (the highest level).
Summing the values for these variables yields valid totals only if the analyst excludes not in universe cases (persons other than sample children age 4-17, code 6 in IHIS) and cases with missing information (codes 7, 8, and 9 in IHIS).
As discussed in more detail below, for results that exclude not in universe and unknown cases, one rough guideline to interpreting the summed score for "Hyperactivity Behavior" is Normal (0-5), Borderline (6), and Abnormal (7-10).
Scoring Responses to SDQ-EX: Combining 4 Subscales
The SDQ-EX includes 5 subscales for measuring different aspects of child mental health. The five subscales (i.e., emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity behavior, peer relationships, and prosocial behavior) can be scored separately to look at specific psychological characteristics (as described above, for the "hyperactivity behavior" subscale). Alternatively, items in four of the five subscales (emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity behavior, and peer relationships) can be added for an overall score from 0 to 40.
Variables from the SDQ-EX receive codes in IHIS that facilitate this scoring process. More specifically, the response that corresponds to the lowest likelihood of a psychological problem is coded as 0 in IHIS; the response that corresponds to the highest likelihood of a psychological problem is coded 2 in IHIS; and the response that corresponds to an intermediate level likelihood of a psychological problem is coded 1 in IHIS.
This coding strategy to facilitate scoring means that a given parental response of "not true" or "certainly true" may be sometimes coded as 0 and sometimes coded as 2. (Responses of "somewhat true" are always coded 1.) For example, the question, "During the past 6 months, has [child] often complained of headaches, stomach aches, or sickness?" presupposes that "not true" (coded 0 in IHIS) implies less emotional symptomology than a response of "certainly true" (coded 2 in IHIS). However, with the question, "During the past 6 months, has [child had] at least one good friend?," a response of "not true" implies poorer peer relationships than a response of "certainly true." In the latter case (for the variable HASFRIEND), responses of "not true" are coded 2 in IHIS, and responses of "certainly true" are coded 0 in IHIS.
Once analysts exclude not in universe cases (persons who are not sample children age 4-17, IHIS code 6) and cases with missing information (IHIS codes 7, 8, and 9), they may sum the values for the following SDQ-EX variables for an overall score of 0 (least likely to have psychological problems) to 40 (most likely to have psychological problems). In addition to the 5 variables (including GOODATTEN) used to measure "Hyperactivity Behavior," as described in the previous section, the variables whose values may summed are:
For measuring "Emotional Symptoms"
Complains of headaches/stomach-aches or sickness, past 6 months (STOMACHE)
Has many worries or often seems worried (WORRIED)
Often unhappy, depressed, or tearful, past 6 months (UNHAPPY)
Nervous or clingy in new situations, past 6 months (CLINGY)
Many fears or easily scared, past 6 months (FEARFUL)
For measuring "Conduct Problems"
Often loses temper, past 6 months (BADTEMPER)
Generally well behaved, past 6 months (WELLBEHAVED)
Often fights or bullies kids, past 6 months (BULLIES)
Often lies or cheats, past 6 months (LIECHEAT)
Steals from home, school, or elsewhere, past 6 months (STEALS)
For measuring "Peer Relationships"
Prefers to be alone, past 6 months (SOLITARY)
Had at least 1 good friend, past 6 months (HASFRIEND)
Liked by other kids, past 6 months (KIDSLIKE)
Was picked on or bullied, past 6 months (PICKEDON)
Gets along better with adults than kids, past 6 months (GETALONGAD)
Interpreting Symptom Scores from SDQ-EX
The www.sdqinfo.com website provides guidelines for "interpreting symptom scores and defining 'caseness' from symptom scores."
According to these guidelines:
Although SDQ scores can often be used as continuous variables, it is sometimes convenient to classify scores as normal, borderline, or abnormal. Using the bandings shown below, an abnormal score on . . . the total difficulties score can be used to identify likely 'cases' with mental health disorders. This is clearly only a rough and ready method for detecting disorders . . . Approximately 10% of a community sample scores in the abnormal band on any given score, with a further 10% scoring in the borderline band. The exact proportions vary according to country, age and gender--normative SDQ data are available from the website. You may want to adjust banding and caseness criteria for these characteristics, setting the threshold higher when avoiding false negatives is of paramount importance, and setting the threshold lower when avoiding false negatives is more important.
For "Parent Completed" results (as in the NHIS), the www.sdqinfo.com website suggests the following interpretation of the "Total Difficulties Score" (summing results from the "Emotional Symptoms," "Conduct Problems," "Hyperactivity Behavior," and "Peer Relationships" subscales): Normal (score 0-13), Borderline (14-16), and Abnormal (17-40). As noted above, for the "Hyperactivity Score" (which includes GOODATTEN), the www.sdqinfo.com website suggests: Normal (0-5), Borderline (6), Abnormal (7-10). For the "Emotional Symptoms Score," the www.sdqinfo.com website suggests: Normal (0-3), Borderline (4), Abnormal (5-10). For the "Conduct Problems Score," the www.sdqinfo.com website suggests: Normal (0-2), Borderline (3), Abnormal (4-10). Finally, for the "Peer Problems Score," the www.sdqinfo.com website suggests: Normal (0-2), Borderline (3), Abnormal (4-10).
According to the 2004 Codebook Appendix, "Validation studies among U.S. children aged 4-14 years are not yet available."
Brief Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire
In 2002 and 2005 forward, six items from the SDQ-EX were included in the sample child section of the NHIS, again with the permission of Dr. Robert Goodman. According to Appendix V of the NHIS Survey Description Document for 2002 and 2005 forward, the abbreviated SDQ, "constructed to save time and space in the questionnaire, was added for children of ages 4-17 as a part of a collaborative agreement between NCHS and the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH)."
In the brief version of the questionnaire used in the 2002 and 2005 forward NHIS, one or two items were chosen from each of the 4 subscales making up the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire Extended (SDQ-EX). GOODATTEN was selected from the "hyperactivity behavior" subscale and, according to Appendix V, "correlates 0.72" with the full "SDQ hyperactivity-inattention score." WORRIED (Has many worries or often seems worried) was selected from the "emotional symptoms" subscale and, according to Appendix V, "correlates 0.71" with the full "SDQ emotion score." UNHAPPY (Often unhappy, depressed, or tearful, past 6 months) was also selected from the "emotional symptoms" subscale and, according to Appendix V, "correlates 0.64" with the full "SDQ emotion score." WELLBEHAVED (Generally well behaved, past 6 months) was selected from the "conduct problems" subscale and, according to Appendix V, "correlates 0.69" with the full "SDQ conduct score. GETALONGAD (Gets along better with adults than kids, past 6 months) was selected from the "peer relationships" subscale and, according to Appendix V, "correlates 0.69" with the full "SDQ peer problems score."
As with the SDQ-EX, variables from the brief version of the SDQ receive codes in IHIS that allow researchers to add codes across items for a meaningful overall score. More specifically, the response that corresponds to the lowest likelihood of a psychological problem is coded as 0 in IHIS; the response that corresponds to the highest likelihood of a psychological problem is coded 2 in IHIS; and the response that corresponds to an intermediate level likelihood of a psychological problem is coded 1 in IHIS.
Once analysts exclude not in universe cases (persons who are not sample children, IHIS code 6 age 4-17) and cases with missing information (IHIS codes 7, 8, and 9), they may sum the values for the aforementioned six SDQ variables for an overall score of 0 (least likely to have psychological problems) to 10 (most likely to have psychological problems). According to Appendix V in both 2002 and 2005 forward, "all values are summed to produce a total score. A total score from 1 to 5 correlates 0.84 with the full [long] SDQ total difficulties score."
The variable GOODATTEN is completely comparable over time. As mentioned above, this variable is an element of both the extended version of the SDQ, which was fielded for sample children in the NHIS in 2001, 2003, and 2004, and an element of the short version of SDQ, which was fielded for sample children in 2002 and 2005 forward.
Other Variables on Child Mental Health
From 1997-2000, the NHIS used questions from the Child Behavioral Checklist (CBCL) developed by Dr. Thomas Achenbach to measure children's emotional and behavioral problems. For 2001 forward, the NHIS retained the CBCL questions for children age 2-3, but replaced the CBCL survey with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) for older children.
For the most part, the public use files of the NHIS data include only summary recodes for the CBCL questions, calculated separately for male and female children age 2-3 (MTODMHI, FTODMHI), for male and female children age 4-11 (MKIDMHI, FKIDMHI), and for male and female children age 12 to 17 (MTEENMHI, FTEENMHI). The one exception to this generalization is that variables from the CBCL relating to whether the child had been unhappy or depressed in recent months (TODDEPRES, KIDDEPRES, TEENDEPRES) appear in the NHIS public files.
2001-2007, 2010-2016 2017 2018: Sample children age 4 to 17.
2001-2007, 2010-2018 : SAMPWEIGHT
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Home / News / CLOSING OF THE WINTER PARALYMPIC GAMES
CLOSING OF THE WINTER PARALYMPIC GAMES
Yesterday (18.03.2018) the 12th Winter Paralympic Games ended in South-Korean city of Pyeongchang. The games set a few new records with 567 athletes from 48 different countries competing at the games.
The most successful country were the United States of America, who won 36 medals (13 gold, 15 silver and 8 bronze). Moreover, 26 out of the 49 delegations (48 countries plus Neutral Paralympic Athletes) won at least one medal, setting another record and beating the mark set at Lillehammer 1994, with a record number of 20 taking gold. All together 25 entities won the Olympic medals (24 countries and Neutral Paralympic Athletes – mostly from Russia).
From the countries in our region the most successful was Croatia, which won 2 medals (one gold by Dino Sokolović in Para-Alpine Skiing Slalom and one bronze by Bruno Bošnjak in snowboarding) and ended up 19th in the medal standings. Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s top results was 12th place. Jernej Slivnik was 12th for Slovenia in the men’s Para-Alpine Skiing Slalom race while Ilma Kazazić was 12th fom Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Woman’s Para-Alping Skiing Slalom race.
See you in 4 years in Beijing!
Slovenia’s Jernej Slivnik
Delegation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in Pyeongchang
Croatia’s hero Dino Sokolović
Pyeongchang 2018 Winter Paralympic Games Logo
Travel is for all people, no matter what their abilities or limitations may be. Traveling with disability often requires a great deal of preplanning.
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You are here: Home › Knutpunkt 2018 › Spades › Let’s Play with Fire! Using Risk and its Power for Personal Transformation
Let’s Play with Fire! Using Risk and its Power for Personal Transformation
Spades 2018-03-01 0 Bettina Beck Aaron Vanek
Immersive experience designers have been inspired by Ida Benedetto’s 2017 design reference work Patterns of Transformation (Benedetto 2017). The multi-part essay is the result of Benedetto’s personal involvement creating transgressive events such as The Night Heron (Sextant Works, 2013) coupled with her research on sex parties, wilderness survival treks, and unconventional funerals. She discovered similarities within all of these endeavors, and suggests these patterns catalyze personal transformation. She states in her introduction:
In previous eras, social gatherings and ritual experiences were the domain of religious institutions, cultural organizations, or the state. Now, they increasingly fall within the realm of design as it expands to address challenges of human emotion and connection. Experience design offers a possible solution to our very human craving for connection and meaning in the face of increased isolation and diminishing social cooperation. Benedetto, 2017
Undergoing a risky experience can be personally rewarding on a fundamental level far beyond an amusing narrative or fostering a friendship. For experience designers, there may be no higher calling than the possibility of healing humanity through one self-improved person at a time. Oftentimes government and business interests regulate our interactions with the world and other people. It may befall the artists and craftspeople who, through unpredictable experiences such as larp, break the artificial restrictions continuously plastered over us and allow our spirit to breathe again. But transformative experiences are both delicate and wild, easy to ruin and inherently uncontrollable. Like fire that can devastate a city or fuel a moonshot, risk is a powerful instrument that should not be bound and buried in the creative tool box. We hope this essay will cultivate a respect for risk and reveal the possibilities for healthy individual growth through intentionally risky adventures.
What is Risk?
All of life is risk. Living without taking risks is not really living. That would be half-living, under a spiritual anesthesia. This high-security society that is developing sees in risk a declared enemy, but in doing so, allows a sort of gangrene to develop. The idea that we can achieve zero risk is not only collectively harmful, but also toxic for individuals. Anne Dufourmantelle interview in Le Monde
According to Benedetto, “risk is any threat to one’s current state that offers the potential to destabilize the way things are. Higher order risks can include financial, political, and legal risks. Primal risks threaten our emotional, social, or physical well-being.” (Benedetto, 2017). We will concentrate on the primal risks.
An emotional risk jeopardizes one’s sense of self, a deeply-held belief, motivation, confidence, or one’s composure. Harm to your emotional state can lead to depression, anger, or compulsive thinking. It can leave psychological scars that can impact a person’s quality of life. The concept of bleed is a strong indicator of emotional changes, but change is not inherently negative. Benedetto suggests that facing risks can strengthen “one’s emotional range and resilience.” (Benedetto, 2017). Like physical exercise, we can use designed experiences to toughen our “ego muscles” through stressful exertion.
Benedetto’s explanation of a social risk is “a threat to one’s standing with a group. A social risk could damage one’s image, sever one’s connections with others, or bruise one’s sense of self-worth. Confronting social risks can give someone new tools for creating and maintaining connections with others.” (Benedetto, 2017).
A social risk can for example mean being judged and found guilty of something by peers. In larp, this can come from role-playing a character close to your real self. You can potentially reveal truths about yourself to others who may not accept them, resulting in ostracization and, thanks to social media and whisper networks, banishment from other events. Playing a villainous character may also be a social risk, even if that character was pre-generated. People might mistake the player for the character, and be negatively biased against the player. This risk increases if you play the same character or type of character repeatedly. You may also be judged for the actions your character takes, as others may ascribe “poor” choices to the player. Social risk often appears in larp communities that create and enforce a code of conduct. The energy and impetus that causes the community to form is also the energy that creates a social risk of exile from the group. When someone causes harm to another—intentionally or not—they may be banned from the community. Benedetto researched a sex party curated by The Dirty Gentleman (TDG), or Mr. Gentleman, containing high social risk. This excerpt may sound familiar to campaign larpers:
When it comes to sexually permissive events, the risk is not only in being hurt but in doing the hurting. Enacting harmful behavior creates the social risk of shame and ostracization. “There is a term for deciding certain people are good or bad which is ‘Voting People off the Island’,” says Mr. Gentleman. “The idea is that you can be in this world until you do something wrong, and then you are dangerous and bad and need to go away.” The severity of a ‘Voting People Off the Island’ model is exactly what The Dirty Gentleman is designed to counter. The gathering focuses on social etiquette so that behaviors, rather than the individual participants, are the focus of potential improvement. Benedetto, 2017
A physical risk is harm to one’s body. In the most extreme case, this results in death. Taking physical risks is common in mainstream activities such as skydiving, bungee-jumping, and most sports. Boffer larps feature physical risk and utilize many rules to mitigate it, e.g., no head or groin shots, maximum bow draw weight, weapon checks, etc. Benedetto writes “Confronting physical risk can reframe one’s sense of vulnerability in day-to-day life and change our relationship to the constructed environments we inhabit every day.” (Benedetto, 2017)
It must be acknowledged that Benedetto stresses that any risk should be roughly equal between the participants, especially social risk. Reacting to a recent Vanity Fair article about Silicon Valley sex parties that enable stereotypical heterosexual male fantasies, she opines “If all participants do not need to risk rejection equally, and those least empowered to leverage their personal boundaries are those most likely to suffer consequences outside the party, you have a recipe for coercion and abuse.” (Benedetto, 2018). Further inquiry into the effects of imbalanced risk among participants is needed. For our purposes, we assume that any risk is generally the same for all involved, possibly including the designers and organizers.
Each of these three types of risk can be actual or imagined, and this is not a duality but a spectrum. Our subjective perception can deceive participants into thinking risk
exists when it does not or is minimal, e.g., afraid of embarrassing oneself with “poor” role-playing among a group of supportive larpers.
is greater than it actually is, e.g., touching another person on the shoulder without their consent.
is less than it actually is, e.g., shooting an old padded arrow from a bow with 30-pound weight at 28” draw at a person when they aren’t looking (LARP Haven Facebook group query, based on over 60 responses, 2018).
does not exist when it does, e.g., getting food poisoning from a novice food preparer, or being unaware of the presence of bees and whether or not you are allergic to their sting.
Unknown actual risks are the most perilous, and discovering the risk after the fact can be exhilarating or traumatic; the danger was unnoticed, survived by someone unprepared for the challenge.
It is critical that experience designers understand the difference between actual and imagined or mis-perceived risk. This difference is particular to each participant as well—someone with an acute nut allergy has a greater actual risk in eating unidentified foods compared to someone who does not. Following a recommended transparency of expectation (Torner, 2013) the designers have a moral and possibly even legal obligation to inform the participants about the experience before undertaking it, whether it involves illegal trespassing, like Benedetto’s The Night Heron, or violence, like the Blackout Experience (Josh Randall and Kristjan Thor, 2009). Both events were up front in their marketing; The Night Heron was an intimate experience in a building’s empty water tower (without authorization to be there), and Blackout involves a single participant going through a series of scenes where they are grabbed, shoved, and choked by the actors (NPCs). Keeping actual risk hidden from participants means the designers are taking on their own undue risk, which may not be the purpose of the activity.
There is considerable opportunity, however, in playing off the perceptions or misperceptions of the participants. Benedetto describes risk perception as “Relying on our unconscious to steer us away from risks makes life manageable, as long as we can trust our unconscious to properly identify the risks. Occasionally waking up from our unconscious steering can put us back in touch with something enriching and transformative.” (Benedetto, 2017). Competition, for example, is an easy method of suggesting risk—the characters might lose the battle and die—while controlling the actual amount of danger faced by adjusting the power level of the opponents. In a controlled, specific manner, duplicity can be quite effective in setting up the conditions for a transformation. More about deception is in the tips section.
What is Transformation?
Risk is a kairos, in the Greek sense of the decisive moment. And what it determines is not only the future, but also the past, behind our horizon of waiting, in which it reveals an unsuspected reserve of freedom. Éloge du risque, Anne Dufourmantelle
Benedetto defines transformation as:
A transformation is a fundamental change. The change can be big or small, but what makes it transformational is how close the change is to what makes someone who they are. Not all transformations are equal, and not all transformations come about in the same way. Transformation is hard if not impossible to measure because most measurements track the effects of the transformation, not the transformation itself. Sometimes whatever is worth measuring about the transformation isn’t evident until the transformation is well under way. Benedetto, 2017
The main criteria for transformation is that it is personal. It is an interior redecorating of your psyche. Although any immersive, interactive experience can change your social circle, hobbies, discretionary income or vacation destination, those are not part of personal transformation. A personal transformation converts the human being through the process of the human doing. It can shatter parts of the previous self, and reconstruction takes time. Benedetto reminds us:
If the experience is successful in delivering transformative potential, the participant cannot fully wrap their mind around what has happened; they cannot satisfactorily tame the splendor of the experience with serious judgment about what happened to them. Leaving an experience in a state of disoriented awe allows for the participant to reorder their world view and sense of self in order to make meaning out of what they went through. Transformation is an unraveling, followed by a slow and sometimes prolonged stitching back together. Benedetto, 2017
Benedetto describes three ways that we can be transformed via a designed experience: acute, repetitive, and dramatic.
Acute transformation is produced by a change that is imposed on someone without warning, against their will, or otherwise beyond their control. In this case, the purpose of the experience is to help the participants adjust to the change that has happened in their world and get past the shock of the change. Not transforming would mean being stuck as the world leaves them behind, often to their detriment. Benedetto, 2017
Avant-garde funeral directors specialize in acute transformation because they design a ceremony unique to the aggrieved. Acute transformational larps are a minority of larps—possibly, too, of designed experiences in general. This is because of the time and care necessary to create something meaningful for a specific audience who already encountered something overpowering. Other people, especially strangers, may not understand or want to participate in something so personal to one or a few. Nevertheless, experiences have been designed as a reaction to an unexpected event, and it may be the creator who seeks transformation themselves. Siobahn O’Loughlin’s Broken Bone Bathtub (2015) is “an immersive theatre project taking place inside a bathtub, in an actual home. After a serious bike accident [the acute catalyst], a young woman musters up the courage to ask for help, and shares her story, exploring themes of trauma, suffering, human generosity, vulnerability, and connection. The audience takes on the role of Siobhan’s close friends; not only in listening but sharing in their experiences, and assisting the cast-clad artist in the actual ritual of taking a bath.” In this 2018 Knutpunkt Companion, larpwright Shoshanna Kessock describes her larp scenario, Keeping the Candles Lit, which became tied to an acute experience, the loss of her mother. Even as the creator, this fabricated experience (scenario) provided Kessock with a lifeboat to weather an unexpected tragedy. (Kessock, 2018)
Repetitive transformation happens through repeat exposure to something over a series of experiences. The shift in the participant may be gradual or sudden but it comes about through habituating an experience that incrementally moves the transformation forward. Benedetto, 2017
Benedetto refers to The Dirty Gentleman’s quarterly escapades as an example of repetitive transformation. For larps, clearly, these are our episodic events. There are many examples of people who have changed, often for the better, through recurring larp campaigns; enough that we assume this is prima facie.
Benedetto defines the third type of transformation:
Dramatic transformation happens at the end of a dramatic arc that has built the participants up to a change. A dramatic transformation happens as a result of an intense and concentrated experience. While dramatic arcs are often associated with fiction, they can happen in experiences of a profound confrontation with reality, too. Benedetto, 2017
The likeliest larp candidate for this type of change is a weekend-long, one-shot event. Yet designed experiences can reach profound intensity within hours or even minutes, depending on the design and the participants. For example, Tobias Wrigstad’s formidable and transgressive larp Gang Rape (2008), which uses the fiat system wherein consenting participants (the rapists) verbally describe the physical act of rape to the victim, who verbally describes the emotions the rapist is feeling, lasts 45-90 minutes. By putting players in a highly-relevant, high-stakes, high-risk and pre-defined arc, it reduces the opportunity to escape from the serious subject matter of sexual assault, creating opportunity for dramatic transformation.
Following the analogy of an ego gymnasium, acute transformation is like physical therapy after an injury, repetitive transformation would be daily jogging, and dramatic transformation would be a short but intense training regimen before a race or triathlon. Akin to what physical exercise can do for your body, so designed experiences can do for your soul.
Experience Risk Type Risk Veracity Structure Transformation
Just a Little Lovin’ Emotional Actual, depending on history with subject Exploratory Acute
Vampire: The Masquerade (campaign) Social variable variable Repetitive
Legion: A Siberian Story Physical Actual Progressive Dramatic
Examples of different larps and their risk/transformative categories.
Why Design a Risky Experience?
In an interview with Kathryn Yu for the No Proscenium podcast #130, Benedetto states that “transformation requires risk. And real risk. And that it’s only in having the supportive structure of an experience, especially if it involves other people that you can go through it with, that you can even approach [a] risk that is too chaotic and too threatening to deal with outside the context of that experience. But by confronting that risk, some part of you reconfigures itself or becomes more alive.” (Nelson-Yu, 2017)
This may be overstating the case. Transformation, at least an intentional transformation, i.e., change consciously desired by the individual, is possible without risk, real or imagined. Overcoming alcohol or nicotine addiction, for example, carries less risk, in most cases, than maintaining your dependence. However, Patterns of Transformation presents a strong case for using risk to make personal transformation easier. Her quote suggests that it is a shared experience that an intentional personal transformation requires, not necessarily a risky one—though that helps.
The power of designed experiences, and larps especially, is their ability to create a space for the mind, body, and emotional self to work out in a controlled manner. Experience designers are like weight trainers and spotters for our spirit. They are there to help us better our ability to operate in a tumultuous era, and, consequently, better the world for everyone. This is a noble endeavor. Benedetto calls this “human enrichment.” (Benedetto, 2017)
It is also probable that the designer will benefit from creating these experiences for others, either physically, mentally, emotionally, and financially. They, too, take a risk in the act of creation.
Why Play a potentially Transformative Experience?
Benedetto says “A lot of the transformation I looked at, where the transformation’s desirable in some way, is because we have been estranged from something, somehow […] I think the transformation gets you back in touch with something that you’ve been estranged [from], and that changes your relationship to the world in your everyday life. That can be super enriching.” (Nelson-Yu, 2017)
An intense designed experience can create the psychological state known as “flow,” coined in 1975 by Mihály Csíkszentmihályi. It refers to a mental point in which a person undertakes a challenge that they understand and lies within their skill competency. When someone reaches this state, they become fully immersed and focused on the experience, losing their sense of space and time. It is innately enjoyable and yields long-lasting and positive after effects. He writes “the experience itself is so enjoyable that people will do it even at great cost, for the sheer sake of doing it.” (Csíkszentmihályi, 1990)
Designed experiences just outside one’s comfort or skill level, too, are the basis for Lev Vygotsky’s (1896-1934) zone of proximal development and scaffolding pedagogy. By presenting a risk that seems insurmountable, yet including the tools or people in the experience that helps the individual complete the task fosters deep cognitive and emotional learning.
According to one of the first attendees of the Blackout Experience, Allison F., “it was almost like they were tailoring every scene towards some type of issue to trigger somebody.” (personal interview, 2018) Going through Blackout by yourself, a participant can expect to experience abuse, torture, and sexual assault—depending on your perspective.
Yet Russell E., also a repeat attendee, explains how repetitive visits affected him:
Since Blackout is a show that adapts to each audience members’ emotional response, the shows became more intense each time I went. In my opinion, the creators and cast were able to recognize patrons who were “getting it” and sometimes altered a scene’s pacing or content to personalize the event and make it even more affecting… I often found myself contemplating my own emotional responses in real life to scenarios explored within Blackout scenes. It seemed to me I was discovering more compassion and more strength within myself than I had previously realized. By exploring heavy, troubling scenarios within an intense theatrical presentation, I found myself approaching everyday turmoil from a stronger foundation…I became [a] stronger person as a result of this exploration. Personal interview, 2018
Allison shares the same sentiment: “…it’s extremely empowering for me to know that I still have that survival instinct or, for lack of better terms, I have it in me to survive…” (personal interview, 2018)
It is important to note that transformative experiences are not for everyone, and not at every point in their lives. Benedetto says “Constantly being in transformation [makes] you lose sense of who you are, and it’s hard to establish things or gain momentum.” (Nelson-Yu, 2017) Although there should be a larp or designed experience for everyone, not every larp is for everyone, nor should they be. Not everyone always wants or needs to undergo a risky interactive or immersive experience. It is also true that not everyone always wants or needs to participate in a safety-stuffed event.
It is beneficial, every once in a while, to reconnect with our estranged passions, to transform through a risky, designed experience.
Guidelines for Designing Risky and Transformative Experiences
Here are some tips on managing risk in a designed experience to create favorable conditions for personal transformation. Ida Benedetto outlined the first seven design steps in Patterns of Transformation. Due to space considerations, they are not reprinted here in full. It is strongly recommended you read these in detail on the Patterns website. We have included some examples from larping that we felt matched Benedetto’s terms and ideas. Following are our additional thoughts and ideas on the topic.
For our purposes, a “designed experience” is any kind of planned real-world experience involving participant interactivity and engagement—things like alternate reality games (ARGs), immersive theater, escape rooms, extreme haunts and, of course, larps. Note that all three of the experiences Benedetto researched do not have a fictional component, i.e., at the sex party, funeral, or survival adventure you are YOU, really doing that real action in the real world. Yet the patterns Benedetto identified can also be applied to experiences that rely on fiction and role-playing.
Before the experience (planning):
Identify the Risk – “Drill deep and get as specific as possible about the risk facing the people you are designing for.”(Benedetto, 2017)
Distill what is worthwhile in the Risk – “Be mindful of cultural mores, life stages, and personal agendas (yours and theirs) when taking this step.” (Benedetto, 2017)
Commit to an Experience Structure (see below, with larp equivalent terms)
Exploratory – freeform, sandbox, undefined goals
Progressive – linear, railroad, pre-defined goals
Cyclical – repetitive scenes, rituals, or actions, like boffer combat in battle larps (Benedetto, 2017)
During the experience (runtime):
Construct the Magic Circle (two types) – The “Magic Circle” is a concept inspired by Johan Huizinga’s (1872-1945) book Homo Ludens: A Study of the Play-Element in Culture (1938) and popularized by Katie Salen and Ryan Zimmerman in Rules of Play: Game Design Fundamentals (2003). A magic circle is a shared space and time mutually created by participants where things and people bounded by that time and space are not necessarily what they really are; it a sacred liminal space where play, and change, can happen. Benedetto describes two types:
Conditioned – this type of Magic Circle includes the majority of larps where we learn rules, character backgrounds, etc. The Magic Circle comes into being due to our willing imposition of belief, e.g., a birdseed-filled packet is really a lightning bolt. (Benedetto, 2017)
Embraced – “A Magic Circle is embraced when it is drawn around an existing reality that is too overwhelming to engage without the supportive structure of a designed experience. The magic circle helps participants embrace a reality they otherwise avoid or are estranged from.” (Benedetto, 2017). This type of Magic Circle, although rare, appears in response larps that address a difficult concept such as GR (2008), Active Shooter (Tim Hutchings, 2014), or A Mother’s Heart (Christina Christensen & Eirik Fatland, 2010). Here, a slight fiction (the larp, the Magic Circle) is imposed over a troubling reality. Embraced magic circles can also occasionally appear in immersive theater, flash mobs, 1960s Happenings, and Benedetto’s primary example, bespoke funeral ceremonies. Dublin2 (JP Kaljonen, Johanna Raekallio & Haidi Montola, 2011), a pervasive larp reaction to EU’s asylum seekers policy, was held in one of Helsinki’s main plazas where real people sometimes interacted with the participants. Interestingly, an embraced Magic Circle coupled with an acute transformation is largely unexplored territory for experience designers, or at least larp designers. Imagine designing a bespoke larp for someone who was recently laid off that directly addresses that issue using few fictional elements.
Hold the space for transformation – Organizers need to respectfully maintain the liminal space to allow the time for transformation, recognize when more time is needed, when it is time to close, and when something is going wrong and it needs to close.
Close the Magic Circle – There are many examples of rituals and symbolic actions from larps that represent the closing of the Magic Circle. In some respects, a debrief after a larp can be considered part of this closing. Running debriefs the same day as the end of the larp should accept, though, that if it was a transformational experience, participants might be confused and shaken, their sense of self, tattered. They might not have the words or ability to join or participate in the meeting.
After the experience:
Check in – This should happen days or even weeks after the event, and this is where the effects of the transformation can be identified, after the individual has had time to process the experience.
From a larp design perspective, we propose the following additions to Benedetto’s seven design steps. We believe these techniques, some for designers, some for participants, heighten the transformative potential of an experience.
Identify the type of transformation desired “The first step with figuring out your strategy for care is to identify what the nature of the transformation is. How are you going to about it? That helps you construct the Magic Circle, that helps you figure out what the experience structure is.” (Nelson-Yu, 2017). Besides identifying the risk, decide if the conditions for transformation should be acute, dramatic or repetitive. A typical dramatic larp is a one-shot, and repetitive usually indicates an ongoing event. Consider flipping those so a campaign leads to one final intense conclusion, and a one-shot repeats the same action or scene in its limited time.
Once the risk is identified (tip #1) and the worthwhile part of risk determined (tip #2), minimize or eliminate all other risks. If you design towards a dramatic transformation through emotional risk, ensure that participants are shielded from social and physical risks. These other elements can detract from the power of transformational risk.
Promote ideal conditions and encourage participants to transform themselves (tip #5), but do not force players into a transformational state, nor dictate to them what their new “self” should be. The more emphasis a designer imposes on participants to become or behave a certain way, the more the experience resembles a cult. The movie and book Fight Club (Chuck Palahniuk, novel, 1996, David Fincher, director, movie, 1999) is a fictive example of how physical risk presented as a transformative experience is deliberately used as a vehicle for creating an anarchist army. Organizers should only extrinsically set the conditions for transformation to occur; the actual act of transformation must be intrinsically activated.
When marketing the experience, do not claim that it is or will be transformational. Let others do that for you with testimonials. It is hubris to think that your daring design will work every time for everyone. If you label it transformational in your marketing, someone may go in demanding that, and become upset if the experience fails to deliver. But do let people know about the risk (see point below on deception).
Establish trust. “Trust is a prerequisite for enabling transformation.” (Benedetto, 2017). Constructing trust between participants, designers and facilitators is rightfully difficult. Once you have it and a community surrounds the experience, the bonds are often hard to break (Douglas, 2016). Additionally, greater trust facilitates the use of greater risk in the experience—though not necessarily greater transformative potential. To achieve the trust of participants before an experience has run, use different levels of transparency. For example, if participants sign waivers, have a “spoiler” and a “no spoiler” version for them to choose to read and sign. The spoiler waiver would include detailed descriptions of the risk, such as “you will unexpectedly have a cloth hood thrown over your head.” The no spoiler version would only mention physical contact, darkness, helplessness.
If you have designed previous experiences, mention those. Be honest about the use of risk in the experience, but not necessarily exactly what the risk is, for some people are attracted to chancy, mysterious events. If there is some kind of independent group that can vouch for your experience (Southern California has a nascent organization called LEIA: League of Experiential & Immersive Artists that may do just this), contact them and let them know about your production; perhaps applying a seal of approval. This may be unwise if it’s a government entity; would The Night Heron have been as profound an experience if everyone had permission to be in the water tower? Benedetto suggests it would not. Conversely, funeral directors, even avant-garde ones, cannot legally operate without license. This is where your previous decisions about the worthwhile risk and transformative type are relevant—is it worth being an underground, unlawful experience, or would the imprimatur of officiality allow attendees easy access into and a lengthy stay within the Magic Circle?
The H.P. Lovecraft Historical Society (HPLHS), an informal collective that created a number of legendary larps, made a point to let all participants know that nothing the organizers asked the players to do the designers had not done themselves. In his Master’s thesis, J. Michael Bestul describes The Mistress of Nyarlathotep (The H.P. Lovecraft Historical Society, Andrew Leman, 1991), a larp run by the HPLHS where players had to jump off a roof through a fabricated temporal gate not knowing what, if anything, would catch them on the other side.
Only when a keeper can earn the trust of players are events like this possible. Under normal, everyday circumstances, a person would not jump off a roof into a prop time portal. They would most likely consider it an insane proposition. But, in a game setting, where the keepers have earned the players’ trust, that insane option is now a likely choice. The investigators, properly motivated, would jump in; the players, knowing the keeper would never ask them to do something exceedingly dangerous, can jump in. Bestul, 2006
As an experience creator, too, you have to trust your players that they will engage to the best of their abilities. In larps, organizers entrust their players to carry out a plot and to role-play their characters as best they can. If you are designing for transformation, you also have to trust that the players will make themselves open and vulnerable.
Paying the designers/organizers money can alter the risk and transformative power. One of the keys to The Night Heron was its exclusivity and price point: “The Night Heron was very much inspired by a design principle that we had hit on in doing our previous events, which was this notion of generosity. We looked at what we were doing as a gift to the guests or the participants. We never charged for tickets because we were doing this all illegally […] as soon as we had a ticket relationship with the guests, it felt like we were going to be in nebulous legal territory. The positive byproduct of doing that is that people were even more over the moon that this was this weird thing they got invited to and was spectacular. Because it had such a profound emotional effect, it ended up informing how people got to The Night Heron […] you could only come as a gift of somebody who had already been.” (Nelson-Yu, 2017)
Similarly, the HPLHS usually did not charge their players money to play in their larps. “On the whole the Cthulhu Lives games [larps] we produced were never staged as for-profit enterprises and the Keeper would generally bear the cost of producing his/her own event. It’s possible that there may have been a couple of games where a Keeper asked players to chip in a few bucks to help defray expenses, but that usually wasn’t the case. Most of our Keepers would design their LARPs so they could be executed within the resources available to the Keeper.” (personal correspondence with Sean Branney of the HPLHS, 2018)
Asking for money alters the relationship between organizer and participant. It does not eliminate the risk or transformative nature, but gaining the trust of others might be easier if the organizers also take a financial risk. Conversely, paying a higher fee could also prime people towards personal transformation; they are already taking a financial risk. The immersive play YOU by Hall & Mirrors costs $5000 for one night of bespoke performance and interaction. The high cost can influence our reaction (“Britt”, 2008). The monetary cost of a transformative experience should not be treated lightly. Benedetto says one of the core questions to consider is “What’s the risk, and what’s the gift?” (Nelson-Yu, 2017)
Deceiving the participants: How much information do participants really need to know? Can you obfuscate parts of the adventure? In most experiences, certainly larps, there is a chaos factor that even the best-prepared organizers cannot expect. Since participants are by nature unpredictable, and more so in a risky, potentially transformative state, all variables cannot be accounted for and stated up front. But organizers owe it to their participants to inform them of at least the generalities expected in the experience. Do not forget that for first iterations or first-time participants, no precedent has been set, no foreknowledge provided, and that itself indicates a risk. Use this to your design advantage. An example from an immersive theater experience playing with transparency comes from Annie Lesser’s A(partment 8) (2016), the first chapter of The ABC Project. Although the waiver mentions nudity, physical contact, and darkness it did not put those together to say (spoiler alert) “participants with shut eyes will be kissed by a naked woman.” You can lose trust if you deceive too much, but if you have trust from the participants, there is a level of mendacity that you can use to a transformative advantage. Even with deception, any opt-out rules such as safe words should be apparent and honest; although this dictum has already been challenged by Frederik Berg Østergaard’s Fat Man Down (2009), which has a fake safe word and a real safe word. Where and when the safe words are usable should be carefully considered. How many positive personal transformations were ruined because someone took an early exit instead of breaking through to the other side? And of course, in some experiences it might be too late, e.g., using a safe word after you jumped out of the airplane.
Give up control. As an organizer, you need to loosen the bonds of any agenda or plan that you have made. But be ready to intervene if a crisis occurs. Being prepared to interrupt might be enough, too. Some participants, knowing safety rules are in place, may be more willing to push themselves further than if they do not know where the line lies between reckless endangerment and regulated hazard. Others may not push themselves far enough.
As a participant, you may need to relinquish control over your social, emotional, or physical safety to either the organizers, your own subconscious, or random chance. The latter two might be the most frightening of all. Be vulnerable.
Lack of epiphany does not mean failure. It may come to pass that after everything a participant has gone through, they have not been altered in any demonstrable fashion. That is OK. Maybe they were not fully committed to the event. Maybe they were not the right person for this particular experience. Maybe the Magic Circle could not wait for one last person. It could be a design flaw. Hopefully the participant still had a satisfactory or enjoyable experience. Keep the discussion channels between designers and participants open, be honest, and compare the reflections of all attendees. If you followed the tip about marketing, you never promised a metamorphosis.
For participants, avoid major decisions for approximately a month. Assuming the experience was transformative, you are different. The way things were in your former life will probably seem strange when viewed with a new perspective—and you might not like the way they look. While you put your pieces back together, refrain from making other major changes or decisions. You could lose a connection you may, years later, have wanted to keep. This sound advice is given at the end of Legion: A Siberian Story (Rolling, 2016), a Czech larp based on the historical past of Czechoslovakia’s army trapped in the Russian Revolution.
Limitations on Safety and Consent
The most stunning commonality among these experiences is that the risk posed to the participant also poses a chaotic and uncontrollable element to the guide that, if fully tamed, destroys the transformative potential of the experience. Ida Benedetto, Patterns of Transformation (2017), http://patternsoftransformation.com/page/patterns.html
Safety and risk are obviously related. Risk can be increased simply by decreasing safety, but without corresponding conscious decisions regarding the risk, participants can be unintentionally hurt. Even if safety is elevated, serious risk can still lurk in an experience. In this section we explore some of the limits of safety and some conditions where safety inhibits the experience and its potential. For more information on safety techniques and calibration, read this manifesto, this article, these four posts, or these two entries from the 2018 Knutpunkt Companion. All qualities of larp safety techniques should be considered when deciding which mechanisms to adopt or eschew.
Consent-Based Play Reshuffling
While the word “consent” suggests that anything else is “non-consensual”, it is instead one of many social contracts that can be adopted by a group of people. Consent-based play moves the cognitive overhead of coordinating playstyle from the design and planning stage by the organizers to the players during run-time. This removes the possibility of errors in calibration, but it requires more work to be done during the larp itself.
This is an approach many people enjoy and find freeing, but it is not a universal response. Communication and coordination take effort. We do not often think of emotional effort the way we count walking far or carrying heavy items, but it is work. In low-coordination, high-calibration larps where the rules of engagement and interaction are pre-set, this work is not undertaken, and playing takes less emotional effort. For example, larps that have established no-touch policies remove player deliberation during the larp on whether or not a particular instance of touch is comfortable: the pre-larp external calibration replaces run-time player coordination.
Alliance, a New England sports larp organization, encourages players to be invested in their characters and play the same persona in many different games, with little to no preparation or specific connections. It is possible to travel across America to another chapter and drop in to play on a whim. This is supported because all Alliance events share a common rules system and constraints on the level of risk and reward, topics that are out-of-bounds, and elements of world design. Players who choose to play are opting in to a set of understood external requirements, and so dozens of strangers can play without so much as an introduction. Run-time calibration between players and a lengthy pre-larp workshop is not required.
Calibration and Coordination Issues
Although some people enjoy or find it easier to participate in run-time coordination rather than playing larps with a risk of mis-calibration, expecting players to be skilled in this effort limits the potential pool of players. If a game is designed such that one can play with people one wouldn’t trust to communicate accurately and effectively in the game (IG), there are far more people you can play with. Casual low-trust events are especially useful for reaching audiences who otherwise wouldn’t be exposed to larp at all. Adding mechanics and categories of interactions raises the barrier of entry for participation, and few non-larpers or untrained improvisation actors are used to an ongoing negotiation of play.
Consent and safety mechanisms are sometimes presented as a matter of accessibility. Instead, they are a question of competing access needs: there is no design that will accommodate and enable everyone to play. Some people with mental health or physical concerns find that consent-based play enables them to safely participate. For other people who struggle with communication and coordination, consent-based play can require forms of interaction they find difficult or impossible, making the events inaccessible. Often consent mechanisms are built to serve those with the emotional intelligence to recognize when, for example, check-ins should happen, and who are able to easily swap from in-character (IC) and out-of-character (OOC) considerations.
Someone with a nonverbal learning disability may have trouble interpreting facial expressions and body language (Petti et al., 2003). The expectation that they are responsible for successfully negotiating playstyle on the fly can be anxiety-provoking. This can be especially true with mechanisms such as the OK check-in that are exclusively visual, rather than audio and visual combined. Since this is an invisible disability, it is possible that someone who flashed a missed signal might think that the other person was unsafe to play with, even though they could safely play in systems that rely on expectations or verbal game interrupts to negotiate playstyle.
Additionally, slipping in and out of a check-in is much easier for people with strong working memories and executive processing. People with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder can be easily distracted and find interruptions or context-switching more disruptive than neurotypical people (King et al., 2007). Requiring coordination or task switching can reduce the probability of flow and the general enjoyment of players with ADHD. According to Pattern Language for Larp Design by J Li and Jason Morningstar (2016), “A typical person can only keep track of 5-6 unrelated things at a time, with concentration. Without concentration, that number is closer to 3-4. When trying to keep track of a set of potentially complex dynamics, a typical person will get lost if the set has more than 4 elements.” Combining consent-based play, where interactions are negotiated outside the Magic Circle, plus a litany of safety mechanics such as OK check, look-down, tap-out, cut, brake/largo, and pronouns can be overwhelming even for neurotypical individuals. These memorizations are layered atop your character’s life, your IC relations, the world setting, and real world considerations such as who the GMs are and where the bathroom is.
This does not necessarily exclude neuroatypical players from playing emotionally risky larps where consent mechanisms mitigate risk, but such experiences may be less appealing or more challenging for such people. On the other hand, physically risky games that minimize the kind of work they find difficult may make transformative experiences more accessible to players with such difficulties. Remember to identify the worthwhile risk and eliminate or reduce the others. There is no single answer for “the most accessible” experience.
Safety Mechanics and Play Styles
Are we truly increasing safety by using risk-reducing mechanics? As described in Target Risk 3 by Gerald J.S. Wilde, humans tend to maintain “risk homeostasis”. He says
…in any activity, people accept a certain level of subjectively estimated risk to their health, safety, and other things they value, in exchange for the benefits they hope to receive from that activity […] In any ongoing activity, people continuously check the amount of risk they feel they are exposed to. They compare this with the amount of risk they are willing to accept, and try to reduce any difference between the two to zero. Thus, if the level of subjectively experienced risk is lower than is felt acceptable, people tend to engage in actions that increase their exposure to risk. If, however, the level of subjectively experienced risk is higher than is acceptable, they make an attempt to exercise greater caution.
This means that simply adding safety mechanisms does not inherently change the level of risk in a game. If a mechanic makes an experience safer, people are likely to adjust the level of risk they take to compensate.
Calling these “safety mechanics” can suggest that larps with them are safer than those without, but that is not necessarily true. If a larp is not designed for risky play that would be padded by safety mechanics, adding unnecessary safety mechanisms can push people to adopt more risky play than the game as a whole supports. The context in which safety mechanics are seen as universally appropriate and universally adopted is one in which the riskiest possible play is seen as a goal, and every experience is expected to support such play.
It can be disappointing for players if they are prepared to experience risky play that safety mechanisms inherently advertise and instead find themselves in low-risk play where the mechanisms were not needed. This could encourage players to circumvent or ignore safety mechanics, reducing their effectiveness when they would be useful.
Additionally, with a consent-based larp where no consequence befalls a participant unless they agree to it, there is reduced possibility for growth because there is no conflict, struggle, or resistance. Our muscles grow due to tissue rebuilding after experiencing micro-tears (Goussetis, 2015). Emotions, like muscles, may need to be damaged in order for personal growth.
Although designers usually desire a safe experience, safety mechanics and consent conflict resolution are not the only nor necessarily the best tools to use in all instances for all people. For example, using instead deception to suggest, or to actually include a risk higher than one participants feel comfortable with may make the experience safer—as participants adjust their role-playing to their acceptable risk tolerance—without an undue burden of excessive safety mechanics.
As the philosopher Anne Dufourmantelle says, “We want intensity without risk. That’s impossible. Intensity is jumping into the unknown, that which was previously unseen, which has not yet been written, yet which is however attainable within us.” (Dufourmantelle, 2011)
Caveats to Using Risk and Designing for Transformation
The element of risk we discussed relates to that which is specifically embedded into the design. Risk outside the experience, such as the potential for harm to or from an experience or negative contact betwixt players and organizers between episodes, was not addressed.
Designing an experience to be risky when the participants only expect entertainment can be extremely hazardous and should be avoided.
Risk does not guarantee a transformative experience. Great peril can be faced, yet the person walks away unfazed.
A risk-based transformation may not always end positively. It could cause trauma and lead to a stress disorder, anxiety, physical injury, even death.
Not all larps should be made for personal transformation. It is infeasible and impractical to plan every one of your designed experiences to rewire every participant. For players, it is a fool’s errand to expect every experience you participate in be created with the purpose of transformation.
Greater risk does not always correlate with greater transformation. Although the prospect certainly exists for “more risk means more change,” it is not a guaranteed formula.
Transformative experiences are no substitute for psychological therapy, and should not be used as such nor made with that intent. They can be palliative, cathartic, eye-opening, self-consciousness expanding and perception shifting, but they cannot replace a licensed therapist or medically-trained psychiatrist.
Objectively, risk-laden larps are no better nor no worse than risk-averse larps. The enjoyment, appreciation, or qualitative transformative benefit is purely subjective.
Risk scares people. It is a natural human response to perceived danger. But avoiding or blocking all risk in a designed experience, as in life, is like chasing rainbows, an uncatchable illusion. Designing to limit risk through safety mechanisms can exclude some people and overwhelm others. Reducing risk curbs the participants’ ability to attempt personal transformation in the experience. While risky endeavors and personal revelations are not and should not be the norm of designed experiences, it behooves all creators to not only look at safety mechanisms but also risk, and to use both in their creative vision. Ida Benedetto’s landmark work, Patterns of Transformation, provides an excellent guide for these bold, daring adventurers.
In the first essay of the landmark Nordic Larp book (2010), “The Paradox of Nordic Larp Culture,” Jaakko Stenros and Markus Montola list four ways that larp can be used: to escape, to explore, to expose, to impose. Perhaps a fifth way should be added: to transform.
Benedetto, Ida. 2017. Patterns of Transformation. http://patternsoftransformation.com/ (Accessed multiple times, November 2017-February 2018)
Benedetto, Ida. 2018. “Patterns of Transformation Q&A 6: What about those f’ed up parties in Silicon Valley?” Group email, accessed January 24, 2018.
Bestul, J. Michael. 2006. “Cthulhu Lives!: A Descriptive Study of the H.P. Lovecraft Historical Society”. Thesis. Graduate College of Bowling Green State University
Britt. 2008. “The Psychology of Money: We think higher-priced items are better.” Money and Values. Blog. http://moneyandvalues.blogspot.com/2008/03/psychology-of-money-we-think-higher.html (Accessed February 1, 2018).
Christensen, Christina and Fatland, Eirik. 2010. A Mother’s Heart. Larp. http://larpfactorybookproject.blogspot.com/2013/10/a-mothers-heart.html (Accessed February 5, 2018). Run: Oslo, 2010.
Csíkszentmihályi, Mihály. 1990. Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience. Published by Harper Perennial Modern Classics.
Douglas, Amanda. 2016. “What We Talk About When We Talk About Community”. Larp World Magazine. Aaron Vanek, ed.
Dufourmantelle, Anne. 2011. Éloge du risque. Payot. In French, excerpt translated by Korrine Stanley.
Dufourmantelle, Anne. 2015. Entretien Libération Par Anastasia Vécrin. Liberation (http://www.liberation.fr/auteur/11435-anastasia-vecrin). In French, excerpt translated by Korrine Stanley.
Duretz, Marlène. 2016. “Faut-il, comme Trump, jouer son va-tout?” Interview with Anne Dufourmantelle for Le Monde (in French). http://www.lemonde.fr/m-perso/article/2016/10/19/faut-il-comme-trump-jouer-son-va-tout_5016604_4497916.html. Accessed December 6, 2017. Translated by Korrine Stanley.
Goussetis, Nicholas Andrew. 2015. “Sore Muscles and Lactic Acid, Concerning Exercise Pain.” SiOWfa15: Science in Our World: Certainty and Controversy. https://sites.psu.edu/siowfa15/2015/11/12/sore-muscles-and-lactic-acid-concerning-exercise-pain/ (Accessed February 2, 2018).
Hutchings, Tim. 2014. Active Shooter. Larpscript. Golden Cobra. http://www.goldencobra.org/
http://www.goldencobra.org/pdf/ActiveShooter_TimHutchings.pdf. Accessed February 1, 2018.
Huizinga, Johan. 2016. Homo ludens : a study of the play-element in culture. Angelico Press
Kaljonen, JP, and Raekallio, Johanna and Montola, Haidi. (2011). Dublin2. Larp. https://nordiclarp.org/w/images/a/a0/2012-States.of.play.pdf (Accessed February 1, 2018). Run: Helsinki, 2011
Kessock, Shoshanna. 2018. “Keeping the Candles Lit, When the Light Has Gone Out.” Knutpunkt 2018 Companion. Johannes Axner and Annika Waern, editors. (Accessed February 8, 2018).
King, Joseph A., et al. “Inefficient cognitive control in adult ADHD: evidence from trial-by-trial Stroop test and cued task switching performance.” Behavioral and Brain Functions 3.1 (2007): 42.
Lesser, Anne Katherine. 2016. A(partment 8). Immersive experience. Part of the ABC Project. http://annielesser.com/abc (Accessed February 1, 2018). Run: Los Angeles, 2016
Li, J and Morningstar, Jason. 2016. Pattern Language for Larp Design. http://www.larppatterns.org/ (Accessed February 1, 2018)
Lovecraft Historical Society, The H.P. (1991). Cthulhu Lives!: The Mistress of Nyarlathotep (a.k.a. “The Epic”). Larp. http://www.hplhs.org. (Accessed February 1, 2018). Run: Urbana-Champaign and other locations in Illinois, 1991.
Nelson, Noah and Yu, Kathryn. No Proscenium Podcast Episode #130-Ida Benedetto. December 22, 2017. https://noproscenium.com/nopro-podcast-episode-130-ida-benedetto-435d3c6a09ac
(Accessed multiple times, December 2017-February 2018)
O’Loughlin, Siobahn. (2015). Broken Bone Bathtub. Immersive experience. http://www.brokenbonebathtub.com (Accessed February 1, 2018). Run: Tokyo, 2015.
Østergaard, Frederik Berg. (2009). Fat Man Down. Larp. http://jeepen.org/games/fatmandown/ (Accessed February 1, 2018). Run: Fastaval, Denmark, 2009.
Petti, V.L., Voelker, S.L., Shore, D.L. et al. Journal of Developmental and Physical Disabilities (2003) 15: 23. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021400203453
Randall, Josh and Thor, Kristjan. (2009) Blackout. Extreme horror experience. http://www.theblackoutexperience.com/ (Accessed February 1, 2018). Run: New York City, 2009.
Salen, Katie and Zimmerman, Ryan. 2003. Rules of Play: Game Design Fundamentals. MIT Press
Sextant Works. (2013) The Night Heron. Speakeasy. http://nightheronspeakeasy.com/ (Accessed February 1, 2018) Run: New York City, 2013.
Stenros, Jaakko and Montola, Markus, eds. Nordic Larp. (2010). Published by Fëa Livia.
Torner, Evan. 2013. “Transparency and Safety in Role-Playing Games”. Wyrd Con Companion Book 2013. Edited by Sarah Lynne Bowman, PhD. and Aaron Vanek.
Wilde, Gerald JS. 2014. “Target Risk 3.” Risk Homeostasis in Everyday Life. Complimentary copy, web-version
Wrigstad, Tobias. (2008) Gang Rape. Larpscript.
This article is part of Re-Shuffling the Deck, the companion journal for Knutepunkt 2018.
All articles from the companion can be found on the Knutpunkt 2018 category.
Knutpunkt 2018, Risk, Safety, transformation
The Narrative Experience
The Operations Behind the Road Trip Experience
Bettina Beck
View all posts by Bettina Beck →
Bettina Beck is a U.S. larp designer, organizer and player of 15 years. Working primarily in New England Sports Larp, her focus is on creating generative world systems and subverting the racist and colonial tropes of the form. As a player she enjoys blackbox and surrealist larps that draw on her background in theater, where she specialized in Augusto Boal-inspired improvisation.
Aaron Vanek
View all posts by Aaron Vanek →
Aaron Vanek survives Los Angeles with the help of his wife Kirsten, also a larp designer, and Missekat, a pussyfoot named in honor of Nordic larp. For a longer bio and free stuff, check out AaronVanek.com
http://aaronvanek.com/
Steering for Survival
Building a Fail-Safe
After an Overstep
Rituals of Being
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Offices of the Police Department
Investigative Support Unit
Commonwealth's Attorney Section
The Commonwealth’s Attorney Section acts as a liaison for the Norfolk Police Department with the Commonwealth's Attorney's Office and all other law enforcement agencies presenting cases for prosecution by the Norfolk Commonwealth's Attorney's Office. Section investigators also conduct investigations and provide other assistance to support successful criminal prosecutions as requested by the Norfolk Commonwealth's Attorney.
Crime Analysis Section
The Crime Analysis Section provided crime statistics to numerous entities for presentation at various community meetings. They also provide the Detective Division and uniformed officers with crime pattern information to allow a concerted effort to address any trends that are identified within the city. The phone number is 757-664-6929.
Economic Crimes investigates "white collar" crimes of fraud, forgery, worthless checks, credit card theft, false pretense, failure to perform construction, embezzlement, and identity theft. The phone number is 757-664-7018.
Forensic Section
The Forensic Section is responsible for the preservation, documentation, and collection of evidence from crime scenes. This section also examines evidence and scenes for latent prints, other trace evidence, and digital and electronic evidence to identify suspects and provide information on how, when and where crimes were committed. The phone number is 757-664-7189.
The Photo Lab is responsible for processing all evidentiary photos for the police department. In addition, the staff photograph special events such as departmental promotional and awards ceremonies.
Email the Police Department
100 Brook Avenue
100 Brook Avenue Norfolk VA 23510
Property Crimes Unit
Special Crimes Unit
Violent Crimes Unit
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On January 11, 2021 / Industry News, NABA Blog
Portland Brewing has announced it will cease operations as of February 5th. This will end production of the MacTarnahan’s brands. Pyramid beers which were also produced at the brewery will now be brewed in Rochester, NY. No further information is available on the status of the brewing equipment. Portland was one of the early craft brewers in the city and operated for more than thirty years; it follows Bridgeport Brewing another early craft brewer which closed 2 years ago. Beer Fest General Admission tickets available now at MBBF.org or follow
Introducing – The Can
On this day in 1935 the Krueger Brewing Company of Richmond, Virginia, introduced the first practical beer can. This might not seem of much significance but before ‘off-premise’ (six packs) most beer was consumed on-premise, meaning bars, saloons, restaurants and hotels. After the introduction of off premise sales American drinking habits changed when they realized beer was thereafter mobile, they could drink it almost anywhere. The one drawback was the lack of an easy-opening top. It required a can opener that was affectionately called a ‘Church Key’. The public
Anxious New Year for Beer?
On January 2, 2021 / Industry News, NABA Blog
The end of COVID, though almost in sight, might not be soon enough for a great number of the country’s breweries. Which face the greatest threat? Those with slim operating reserves and those which rely on taprooms sales for the majority of their business. Back in early April 2020, a survey conducted by the Brewers Association determined that over 45% of the small brewers were in jeopardy, indicating they could only survive approximately three months of COVID restrictions. Many small breweries were dependent on a business model which focused on
This Date in Beer History
December 31, 1759: Arthur Guinness closed one of the greatest real estate deals of all time. He signed a lease securing land for his brewery for a total of 45 British Pounds Sterling per year and for a term of 9,000 years. The small parcel now sits within the brewery grounds. When the lease was signed the land consisted of a house, fishpond, gardens and a rundown brewery which had laid idle for over ten years. Beer Fest General Admission tickets available now at MBBF.org or follow this link https://northamericanbrewers.org/ticket-store/
Throughout the medieval times the 26th of December (Saint Stephen Day), the 27th (St. John Day), and the 28th (the Holy Innocents) were known collectively as the ‘Feast of Fools’. On those days crowds gathered in Churches to attend ‘fake’ services and drink beer as they sat in the pews. From there they spilled into the streets and transformed fools and children into Kings and Popes. These celebrations lasted well into the 1500’s but are generally frowned upon today. Beer Fest General Admission tickets available now at MBBF.org or follow
Dec 24th Side Lot Brewery in Wauconda, Illinois; a one barrel brewery which prides itself on the unusual and creative, has landed in a rather unusual situation. Owner Phil Castello loves providing his customers with a wide variety of beers made with an even wider selection of ingredients and it was two of those ingredients that drew the attention of Hershey’s. The brewery’s website and social media regularly features customer favorites which included a Pale Ale made with Jolly Ranchers and a Porter fashioned from Milk Duds. Hershey took exception
This Day in Beer History
On this date, December 19, 1620, the Pilgrims, low on beer, made landfall at Plymouth Rock. Their intention was to come ashore in the religious tolerant colony of New Amsterdam, but overshot. Desperate, they landed in cold seas; Pilgrim William Bradford explained it was because “…for we could not now take much time for further search or consideration, our victuals being much spent, especially our beer….” Beer Fest Returns in 2021 General Admission tickets to go on sale in time to give as Christmas Gifts Copyright Gregg Smith – his
On this day in 1543 Don Antonio de Medoza granted authorization to Alfonso de Herrera to build and operate a brewery in Mexico City. Truly a landmark event, it was the first brewery in all of the America’s. Beer Fest VIP tickets available now at MBBF.org or follow this link https://northamericanbrewers.org/ticket-store/ Copyright Gregg Smith – his latest book “American Beer History” is available on Amazon
WWII VET – 103: Still Drinks Beer
Andrew E. Slavonic, continues his streak. The World War Two Army Air Corps veteran first became a celebrity in 2018, at age 100, when he credited the effects of a daily 4 p.m. beer as the secret to his longevity. Slavonic celebrated his One hundred Third birthday in the same manner, “I really think that is what is keeping him going so long,” said his son, Bob Slavonic. Andrew began his streak over a decade ago and continues to this day. Beer Fest VIP tickets available now at MBBF.org
Bad Beer Omen
On December 8, 2020 / Industry News, NABA Blog
On this day in 1917, President Woodrow Wilson set the legal high limit of alcohol in beer to 2.75% The reason given for the change was to conserve grain during World War One; in reality it was a warm up for Prohibition. As an aside, a level of 2.75% is considered too low to produce intoxication. Beer Fest VIP tickets available now at MBBF.org or follow this link https://myidahotix.com/events/2020-mountain-brewers-beer-fest-6-6-2020-58530 Copyright Gregg Smith – his latest book “American Beer History” is available on Amazon
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ALERT: For COVID-19 related travel updates and temporary closures please see our COVID-19 Blog.
National Forest & Other Parks
Rare Nature
Nature’s Recharging Stations
Culinary Indulgences
Lucky 13 Fun & Free Things to Do
Waterfall Trail
Olympic Discovery Trail
2-Nation Vacation
Seasonal Trip Ideas
Drive the Loop
Olympic Peninsula Road Trips
Road Trip Playlists
Olympic Peninsula Suggested Books, Volume 6
Written by guest-blogger and local bibliophile, Mary Brelsford. Cover Photo Courtesy of Port Book and News.
We could not let these four books be left off the list, so we are calling it, Our “Deep Dive and Some Poetry” List. We hope you are enjoying some stories, insights, truth and adventure to whet your appetites to experience the Olympic Peninsula when we can all begin travelling again.
Let’s explore some of our other favorite books about the Olympic Peninsula.
Women to Reckon With: Untamed Women of the Olympic Wilderness by Gary Peterson and Glynda Schaad. History, Nonfiction. First Published 2007.
We introduced you to the Iron Man of Hoh in a previous blog. It’s only fair to give the pioneer women a shout-out. This book has the biographies of twelve amazing women who helped tame the wild, wild Pacific Northwest.
One of the twelve is Anna Petrovna, from the Anna, Like Thunder book from Blog Volume 5. Another one is Minerva Troy, who was involved with the Puget Sound Co-operative Colony, mentioned in West of Here, reviewed below.
Photos, along with the biographies, show the resilience of these women to reckon with.
West of Here by Jonathan Evison. Historical Fiction, Contemporary, Literary Fiction. First Published 2011.
It’s been said, “This is a damn fine book!” A play with words since two stories in one are told about the Elwha Dam on the Elwha River. One is woven around the construction of the dam and development of the surrounding area and one is about the removal of the dam 100 years later. It tells so much about the history, culture and development of human attitudes during the 100 years. There is some romance, some ecology, and some downright good story telling.
Elwha Dam Interpretive Center Kiosk, located on the south side of Hwy 112 between Milepost 60-61 and Lower Dam Road
West of Here is a grand and playful odyssey, a multilayered saga of destiny and greed, adventure and passion, that chronicles the life of one small town (Port Bonita/Port Angeles), turning America’s history into myth, and myth into a nation’s shared experience.
There is a kiosk explaining the construction and removal on Lower Dam Road west of Port Angeles. A trail goes down to the old dam site.
Joseph and the Tamanawis Spirit by Dawn Lawrence. Fiction, Cultural Heritage, Suspense. First Published 2012.
Written by a Native American woman who has lived in Neah Bay, WA, for over thirty years, this story takes off when strange things begin happening on the Makah Reservation in Neah Bay. The Millers, residents of Neah Bay, sense an evil spirit is targeting their son. Preparations are made for an epic battle with the world’s fate hanging in the balance.
Though this book is fiction, you can learn more about the Makah culture and stories by visiting the Makah Cultural and Research Center in Neah Bay, once the community is reopen. At the time of this blog, Neah Bay is closed to non-tribal members due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Raymond Carver’s Short Stories and Poetry
Raymond Clevie Carver Jr. (May 25, 1938 – August 2, 1988) was an American short-story writer and poet. He is considered to be one of America’s greatest writers. His first short \story collection, Will You Please Be Quiet, Please? was published 1976 and was shortlisted for the National Book Award. His earliest book of poetry, Near Klamath, was published in 1968. He was a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction for his third major-press collection, Cathedral. He was categorized in the Literary movement as Minimalism, dirty reality. Carver, however, did not consider himself so. His writing does evoke intense emotions of the blue-collar experience.
Raymond Carver’s Legacy
Born in Clatskanie, Oregon, he died on August 2, 1988, in Port Angeles, WA, from lung cancer at the age of 50. In the same year, he was inducted into the American Academy of Arts and Letters. He is buried at Ocean View Cemetery in Port Angeles, Washington. The inscription on his tombstone reads:
LATE FRAGMENT
And did you get what
you wanted from this life, even so?
And what did you want?
To call myself beloved, to feel myself
beloved on the earth.
His poem “Gravy” is also inscribed.
Our Book Series Comes to an End
We hope you’ve enjoyed reading our Olympic Peninsula Suggestion Book Series, learning some of our fascinating history and finding enjoyable reading from our suggestions. The selections we chose will give background and context for your future travels. There are many books about the area, including ones for hiking trails, place names and field guides. Since this area is a major fly-way for migrating birds for example, bring a bird book and look for our over-head wildlife. Our knowledgeable, local bookstore folks can assist you in finding the right books for your reading enjoyment or for referencing information for your next trip to the Olympic Peninsula. We can’t thank them enough!
Thanks again to Port Book and News in Port Angeles for reading suggestions. Port Book and News offers curbside pickup from 11am to 4pm; free home delivery for orders over $10 to locations between Black Diamond RD and Deer Park RD after 4pm; free ground shipping for orders over $30.
More Independent Bookstores on the Olympic Peninsula
Odyssey Bookshop, Port Angeles
William James Bookseller, Port Townsend
The Writers’ Workshoppe & Imprint Books, Port Townsend
Twice Loved Books, Sequim
Read all the book list blogs:
Volume 1, Boats
Volume 2, Food
Volume 3, History
Volume 4, Sea Life
Volume 5, Romance and Adventure
Volume 6, Our Favorites
← Olympic Peninsula Suggested Books, Volume 5
Recreate Responsibly →
Port Angeles & Lake Crescent, Port Townsend, Sequim & Dungeness Valley
Spring, Summer, Winter
Totem Poles of the Jamestown S’Klallam Tribe
Winter Birding on the Olympic Peninsula
Copalis Ghost Forest
A Guide to Winter Recreation at Olympic National Park
Open & Closure Status of Recreational Lands
Experience Forever Twilight in Forks Virtually
Olympic Peninsula’s Best Kept Secrets Along the West Coast, USA
Summer Farmers Markets
Geocaching 101 – a guide to treasure hunting for beginners
REST EASY
Enjoy a peaceful slumber near scenic nature. Relax and unplug.
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