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Home/ Jaguar Car Insurance
So you own a Jaguar Car? Hats off just to that!
Planning to renew the insurance of your good old Jaguar XE or looking for the best online car insurance for your brand new Jaguar F Type – you’ve landed in just the right place.
Let’s dive into the car insurance basics for your Jaguar car.
Understanding Jaguar Car Insurance
Must-know Coverage for Your Jaguar Car
You can get the following kinds of insurance policies for your Jaguar Car:
Third-Party Car Insurance
Only covers third-party injuries and damages, and not those to your own vehicle. Gives third-party policy + coverage for losses and damages to your own car
Mandatory by Indian Motors Act. It’s not mandatory to buy coverage for your own car’s damages, but then we all know the state of Indian roads. And, who doesn’t love their Jaguar car?
Additional coverage like bumper-to-bumper cover, engine protector is NOT available. Additional coverage, like engine protector, bumper-to-bumper cover, no-claim bonus protector cover are available, at a slightly extra premium cost.
Why You Should Insure Your Jaguar Car?
Most Jaguar cars drive well on Indian roads and are priced to match affordability and mileage. You can buy either a Third-Party or Comprehensive insurance for your Jaguar car. A 3rd party car insurance online is mandatory buy as per Indian laws. Meanwhile, comprehensive insurance offers a wide range of coverage.
With suitable comprehensive car insurance, you can:
Be sure that you’re rightfully compensated if your Jaguar car was stolen or damaged beyond repairs.
Get coverage for a third-party if your car caused an accident and the third-party was injured or their property damaged.
Get comprehensive coverage, in case damages, were caused to your car [during an accident or because of natural calamities].
Be sure that no traffic policeman heavily fines you for not having a car insurance policy. Strictly, say no to bribery!
Good-to-Have Insurance Add-ons for Jaguar Cars
Zero Depreciation Cover:
Irrespective of the model of Jaguar you have, depreciation is applicable to all kinds of metal, plastic, and fiberglass parts. In case of repairs/replacement claims, you would have to pay for the depreciation cost. However, with zero depreciation add-on, you can get that covered.
So that, if your car was stolen or completely damaged, the claim settlement amount from the insurance company is not as little as the current market value of the car. Instead, it would be as much as its invoice value. This is possible even in a case where your car was two years old, with a 20 percent lower current market value.
Engine Protector Cover:
A regular comprehensive car insurance policy does not cover the damages to your engine. With an engine protector cover, you could claim for those damages too. Whether you own a high-end car like Jaguar XJ or Jaguar F Type or regular car like Jaguar XE, it makes sense to buy this add-on. This add-on is also suitable for cars located in flooding prone areas.
No-claim Bonus Protector Cover:
If you are a good driver and have a tendency to claim less, you would certainly know about the no-claim bonus that you can earn for every claim free year. This bonus helps you in earning as much as a 50 percent discount. However, a single claim can reduce the accumulated NCB to zero in the next year. The solution to safeguard that NCB is to buy this add-on. High-end Jaguar cars have higher own-damage premium. So if you have accumulated enough NCB and don’t want to lose it for a claim, this is a good-to-have add-on.
Passenger Cover:
This personal accident cover for a passenger is a must-buy for any Jaguar car owner. A lower end model of Jaguar may not come with safety features like airbags or child safety locks. If you use your Jaguar car to drive your family on a daily basis, it makes sense to buy this add-on.
A lot of insurance companies offer specific add-on coverages at an additional premium cost. Depending on the model of Jaguar you have, do enquire with your insurer about these coverage options. Key replacement, roadside assistance, personal accident cover of passengers could be a few such options.
Things a Car Insurance Covers For Any Jaguar Car
Personal accident coverage for owner-driver
Accident-related damages to your car
Damages caused during a natural calamity like flood or storm
Loss because of fire, explosions
Compensation for Stolen Car
Things a Car Insurance Does Not Cover For Any Jaguar Car
Wear and tear caused over the years [including flat tyres]
Losses caused when the car was driven without a driving license
Damages caused when the car was being driven under the influence of alcohol
Driving outside the geographical limits
If the car is used for anything beyond its legal purpose [racing, illegal activities, organized crime]
Questions you might ask about Jaguar Insurance
How can I renew my Jaguar Insurance online?
Your Jaguar Car Insurance Policy can be renewed online very seamlessly through your insurer’s online portal or your broker’s portal.
If you have already selected an insurance company you can go to the insurer’s portal and renew it online by filling in the details.
All you need to fill are your car details (like Vehicle Registration Number, Engine/Chasis Number), your previous insurance details and your contact details. Once done, you can then renew the policy online by paying via net banking, wallet or credit/debit card.
Also, it is not necessary to continue your insurance policy with the same insurance company as the previous year. You can easily purchase an insurance policy from a different insurer, as long as you are aware of the benefits and features being offered
The car insurance of my Jaguar XJ has already expired. Is vehicle inspection mandatory?
Yes. Inspection is mandatory if the insurance for your car has already expired. You need to schedule an inspection before purchasing the policy. Once the surveyor approves, you can purchase the plan immediately online.
Is an online insurance policy valid for car?
Of course, it is valid. You get a valid online car insurance policy by renewing the policy online. All you need to do is fill in your previous policy car details and get a valid insurance policy emailed to your registered email id. A printout of that would suffice.
How do I get a no-claim bonus at the time of renewal?
If you have not claimed in the preceding year, then you can avail a No-Claim Bonus (NCB) at the time of your next renewal. Keep one thing in mind: your car insurance renewal has to happen before the previous policy expires. If your policy lapses, you lose your NCB.
At the time of renewal of your Two-Wheeler Insurance Policy, you need to mention your last NCB and whether you have made any claim in the last year or not. You get discount on the own-damage premium as per the NCB grid provided by IRDA.
All vehicle Type NCB Grid
% of discount on own damage premium
No Claim in the last 1 year 20%
No Claim in the last 2 consecutive years 25%
How much more do I need to pay for comprehensive car insurance?
The premium for a simple third party only insurance is fixed by the IRDAI. A comprehensive insurance policy includes own-damage premium too. The own-damage premium varies slightly from one insurance company to another and is dependent on a lot of factors, including your claims history and the age of your car. The overall premium for comprehensive insurance is slightly higher but highly recommended if you are looking for complete coverage for your Jaguar car.
Models Manufactured by Jaguar: Which One Do You Drive?
Mileage(kmpl)
Wt. (kgs)
Price Range(in Rs)
Jaguar XE Prestige 1991 13.6 197 1547 4,413,000 to 4,800,000
Jaguar XE Pure 1999 13.6 197 1547 4,030,000 to 4,500,000
Jaguar XE Portfolio 1999 13.5 237.4 1547 4,847,000 to 5,500,000
Jaguar XF Pure 1999 19.33 177 1687 4,750,000 to 5,200,000
Jaguar XF Prestige Petrol 1999 10.08 237.4 1729 5,365,000 to 5,800,000
Jaguar XF Prestige 1999 19.33 177 1729 5,390,000 to 5,900,000
Jaguar XF Portfolio Petrol 1999 10.08 237.4 1729 5,985,000 to 6,500,000
Jaguar XF Portfolio 1999 19.33 177 1760 6,010,000 to 6,600,000
Jaguar XF R Supercharged 5.0 Litre V8 Petrol 5000 8.6 502.6 1780 7,221,000 to 7,800,000
Jaguar XJ 3.0 L (D) Portfolio 2933 14.47 296.4 1988 10,600,000 to 11,500,000
Jaguar XJ 3.0 L (D) Premium Luxury 2933 14.47 296.4 1988 9,900,000 to 10,600,000
Jaguar XJ 2.0 L (P) Portfolio 1999 9.43 237.4 1824 10,000,000 to 10,800,000
Jaguar F-Pace Prestige 1991 21.27 177 1775 7,450,000 to 8,000,000
Jaguar F-Pace Pure 1991 21.27 177 1775 6,840,000 to 7,500,000
Jaguar F-Pace R-Sport 2993 17.85 296 1884 10,200,000 to 11,000,000
Jaguar F-Pace First Edition 2993 17.85 296 1884 11,200,000 to 12,000,000
Jaguar F Type V6 S Convertible 2995 15.15 375.5 1614 15,400,000 to 16,500,000
Jaguar F Type Coupe 2995 15.38 335.25 1614 12,600,000 to 13,500,000
Jaguar F Type S 2995 15.15 375.5 1614 13,800,000 to 14,800,000
Jaguar F Type V8 S 5000 12.5 488.1 1665 18,200,000 to 19,500,000
Jaguar F Type R Coupe 5000 12.5 543.1 1665 18,800,000 to 20,200,000
News Related to Jaguar:
Jaguar Reveals The F-Type Heritage 60 Edition
British luxury carmaker Jaguar has revealed the new F-Type Heritage 60 Edition to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the iconic E-Type car in March 2021. The F-Type Heritage 60 Edition will be a limited-edition model with only 60 units built for the worldwide market. The special edition car will be offered in Coupe and Roadster avatars, and the car will be hand-built at the company’s SVO (Special Vehicle Operations) division. The limited-edition model will be finished in a unique Sherwood Green paint scheme, which featured on the E-Type. The car also gets diamond-cut alloy wheels. The F-Type Heritage 60 Edition will draw power from a 5-litre V8 internal combustion engine that pumps out 567Bhp of maximum power and 700Nm of peak torque. Jaguar offers an 8-speed automatic transmission delivering power to all the four wheels. The car is capable of hitting a top speed of 299km/h and can sprint from standstill to 96km/h in just 3.5 seconds. The limited-edition model gets a dual-tone interior with unique design elements such as the E-Type 60th Anniversary logo on the seats. Other features include a TFT HD display for the digital instrument console and a touchscreen display for the infotainment system. Jaguar will start the deliveries of the special edition car from March 2021.
Jaguar Gives a Makeover and Performance Upgrade to the F Pace SVR
– December 8, 2020
Jaguar has updated the 2021 Jaguar F Pace SVR with upgrades to the performance and its exterior. The SUV continues to derive power from the 5.0-litre engine that is able to develop a maximum power of 550hp and a peak torque of 700Nm. The torque figures have gone by 20Nm. The vehicle also gets a revised gearbox, which is a torque convertor borrowed from the Jaguar XE SV Project 8 Saloon. With the update to the performance of the SUV, it is now able to reach 100 km/h in 4 seconds, 0.3 seconds faster than the previous model. Also, the top speed has increased to 286 km/h, up by 5.1 km/h. The company has updated the electronics as well with the EVA 2.0 electronic architecture. The Dynamic Mode has been revised to offer a sharper throttle response.
Jaguar India Opens Bookings for Its New I-PACE SUV
Jaguar has opened the booking for its award-winning vehicle, the new I-PACE. This is a Sports Utility Vehicle that was declared as the World Car of the Year last year. This electric vehicle also won the World Green Car of the Year and the World Car Design of the Year awards. The I-PACE is scheduled for a 2021 launch. This appealing vehicle has muscular wheel arches of a sports coupe and a raised ride height of a Sports Utility Vehicle. Jaguar Land Rover India plans to seek Tata Power’s charging solutions for its electric vehicle. Tata’s charging network comprises more than two hundred charging locations. The price of this utilitarian and stylish electric vehicle is said to be around INR 1 crore (unofficial). Some of the Jaguar Land Rover India’s I-PACE SUV’s features include 90Kw lithium-ion battery, acceleration of 0-100 kmph in just 4.8 seconds, and PM2.5 filtration.
Jaguar’s New Electric Car I-Pace to Launch in 6 Months
After the launch of Defender, Jaguar is all set to introduce its new electric SUV I-Pace. There will be three variants of the electric car S, SE, and HSE. Jaguar will offer the SUV in a wide range of 12 colours that will include Caldera Red, Fuji White, Yulong White, Santorini Black, Firenze Red, Indus Silver, Borasco Grey, Caesium Blue, Portofino Blue, Eiger Grey, Aruba, and Farallon Pearl Black. Under the hood, it has a 90 kWh battery with two electric motors. These are capable of producing 394bhp of power and 696Nm of torque. The car can go from zero to 100 kmph within 4.8 seconds. The length of this electrical SUV is 4,682mm, its height is 1,566mm, and the wheelbase is 2,990mm wide. Jaguar promises 470 kilometres run on a single charge.
Jaguar Reveals Variants for the Jaguar I Pace for India
Jaguar has revealed through its website about the variants of the Jaguar I Pace which is expected to be launched in the country. The variants include S, SE and the HSE. The entry variant ‘S’ comes with 19-inch diamond-cut alloy wheels, ‘InControl’ connected car tech and LED headlights and tail lights. It also gets 8-way semi-powered front seats, screen-based dials, a full length fixed glass roof, a tyre pressure monitor, a powered tailgate, auto wipers and dual-zone climate control. The infotainment system comes with 12 speakers and a dual touchscreen infotainment system which supports Android Auto and Apple CarPlay. As for the InControl connected car technology, it features remote access and monitoring, a partner smartphone app, over-the-air updates, real-time traffic updates and vehicle tracking system. Additional features include a 3D surround camera, cruise control and driver fatigue control. The Jaguar I Pace is powered by a 90 kWh battery pack which sends power to the motors which are able to punch out a maximum power of 400hp and a peak torque of 696Nm. This motor is able to propel the I-Pace to 100kmph in 4.8 seconds with a top speed limited to 200kmph. The Jaguar I Pace will go against the likes of the Mercedes-Benz EQC and the Audi e-Tron in the Indian market.
Jaguar Reveals The New XF Facelfit
British luxury car manufacturer Jaguar has revealed the new 2021 XF facelift. The new model features a revamped exterior design, new interior, and new features. On the design front, the new XF features a larger front grille with a chrome treatment, newly designed front bumper, new alloy wheels, revamped air intakes and projector LED headlights. Jaguar has completely revamped the interior of the facelifted model. The interior features a newly designed dashboard with revamped air conditioning vents. Other highlights of the interior include leather upholstery, digital instrument console, touchscreen display for the infotainment system, connected car features, 360-degree camera, digital camera for the rear-view mirror, wireless charger and active noise cancellation. The facelifted XF is offered with two petrol and one diesel engine option. The diesel engine also gets the mild-hybrid system and an integrated starter generator. With the inclusion of mild-hybrid technology, the diesel engine is now more fuel-efficient. Overall, Jaguar has brought in a significant amount of updates to the new 2021 model of the XF. The main highlight of the car is the new interior which is designed from scratch to tackle the competition. The 2021 Jaguar XF is expected to be launched in the Indian market in 2021.
15 Lakh Ingenium Engines Produced By Jaguar Land Rover
– August 3, 2020
Jaguar Land Rover announced that they have produced over 1.5 million car engines for their brand so far. These are not regular car engines but they are optimised to perform in a futuristic manner by delivering high performance while keeping the environment clean. These engines are built under the Ingenium mark and the latest in line is the six-cylinder diesel engine that is present in the Range Rover Sport and Range Rover 2020 cars. These engines are built with the help of mild-hybrid technology. They also feature an electrified version that runs on hydrogen fuel cell powertrain concept. The manufacturing facilities also offer assembly of Electric Drive Units (EDUs) so that a customer can switch between fuel-driven and electric engines. Ken Close, the Director at Powertrain Operations, Jaguar Land Rover said that the company is expected to deliver clean products that do not affect the environment as compared to the previous versions. This is supposed to be achieved by maintaining performance and all-terrain capabilities that are expected from Jaguar Land Rover.
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Economy|Business and Economy
Saudi agrees to US request to pump more oil
Kingdom is prepared to utilise its spare production capacity to deal with changes in the levels of supply and demand.
Trump wants Saudi to pump more oil to maintain market stability and global economic growth [Daylife]
Saudi Arabia’s cabinet on Tuesday endorsed the kingdom’s readiness to pump more oil to maintain market balance and stability, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said.
“The kingdom is prepared to utilise its spare production capacity when necessary to deal with any future changes in the levels of supply and demand,” a cabinet statement said, following a meeting chaired by King Salman.
US President Donald Trump on Saturday said Saudi Arabia’s King Salman had agreed to his request to increase oil output “maybe up to” two million barrels.
Trump said the agreement was reached after a phone call with the Saudi King about oil production but mentioned no specifics.
Both leaders also discussed “efforts by the oil-producing countries to compensate for any potential shortage in supplies,” SPA reported.
Trump’s claim comes after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a grouping of oil-producing states that includes Saudi Arabia, already agreed to ramp up production by a million barrels a day at a meeting earlier this month.
Non-OPEC member Russia on June 23 also backed the effort, capping a week of tense diplomacy for the bloc that averted a damaging rift between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s top oil exporter and has usually kept at least 1.5 million to two million barrels per day of spare capacity, according to the US Energy Information Administration. It produces around 10 million barrels of crude per day, according to OPEC.
The Trump administration is pushing countries to cut all imports of Iranian oil from November when the United States re-imposes sanctions against Tehran after Trump withdrew from a 2015 nuclear deal agreed between Iran and six major powers.
US officials are pressing allies in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, to adhere to the sanctions, which are aimed at pressuring Iran to negotiate a new agreement to halt its nuclear programmes.
Iran’s OPEC governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, accused the US and Saudi Arabia of trying to push up oil prices and said both countries are acting against the foundation of OPEC.
More from Economy
Biden moves to have US rejoin Paris Accord, halt Arctic leasing
Amazon offers to help Biden speed delivery of COVID vaccines
China sanctions Pompeo, other Trump administration officials
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Septic Tank Restoration
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(please inquire about your area today if not listed below)
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An Evolving Relationship with Football
Posted on September 6, 2016 September 6, 2016 by Ross Gariepy
I love the way the world brings me little reminders throughout the month of August that the NFL season is just around the corner.
First it was the always-surprising-but-shouldn’t-be increase in my DirecTV bill to account for the cool $270 the NFL will charge me over 6 monthly installments for access to 17 weeks of football.
Next came the annual botching of something really basic by that same multi-billion dollar league that charges me out the ass for their games.
And finally, there was no shortage of careers being altered and (fantasy) seasons being screwed up in the month of August by non-contact injuries to body parts that are less than 1.5 inches in diameter.
Like it or not, the NFL has been beating down our door for the past six weeks, so it’s probably time to open the door and let it in (otherwise it might literally beat down the door, physically attack us, and then escape any jail time after it pays us off in exchange for our silence).
As much as I’ve grown more & more disenchanted with certain aspects of the NFL (more on that in a minute), the truth is, we need it in our lives. If I have to accidentally overhear the dialogue in my wife’s favorite movie, the Hallmark Channel presents The Convenient Groom, one more time, I might go off the deep end.
Oh, you wanted to hear the synopsis of The Convenient Groom, a real movie that you thought I made up? Here it is: “When a celebrity marriage counselor is left high and dry at the altar, her contractor steps in as the groom to help her save face.”
Boom. That was summertime at the Gariepy household.
If you think you’ve reached your breaking point with the NFL after years of blind loyalty to the league because now-a-days being a football fan feels dirtier than ever, just do what I do: Treat the league as your personal piggybank (kind of like how they treat us like their personal piggybanks).
In the past 20 years, I’ve evolved from being the naive teenager who pretended to be Isaac Bruce or Marvin Harrison whenever he caught a pass during our neighborhood football games (for whatever reason, those were the 2 guys I always pretended to be when laying out to catch one of my brother’s wobbly passes), to the college student who spent every Sunday at a bar rooting for his favorite team and players, to the dignified adult standing before you today saying that my relationship with the NFL has become purely transactional.
I’m treating the past 20 years like an investment or a college education on all things football. And now it’s time to get the return I’m owed from the slimy NFL.
While I’ve been making picks against the spread in this internet space for the past few years, I’m turning up the dial on the gambling-themed blog posts this year. I’m sure there will still be times when I talk generally about the latest news and results in the NFL, but for the most part, every bit of research I do, every moment I devote to watching the games, is with an eye towards how I can fund my extravagant lifestyle from gambling profit.
In fact, I recently launched a podcast with a couple friends where we plan to give you all the winning bets during every week of the NFL season, and you can find that podcast and subscribe to it either on iTunes or SoundCloud.
So before the NFL season officially kicks off on Thursday night, expect a flurry of activity from me that will be mostly geared towards some preseason bets you should make, a prediction around the exact record of each team (so you can hit your over/under win totals), and of course, the return of the weekly picks column including more bets than ever before!
Hope you’re ready for a fun 21 weeks. I am. It’s just that these days, fun = profitable when it comes to my enjoyment of the NFL.
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged against the spread, football betting, football predictions, NFL, nfl betting, nfl picks, nfl predictions, online bookie, sports gambling 1 Comment
NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks: Guaranteeing 4-0 Against The Spread
Posted on January 2, 2015 by Ross Gariepy
Blogger, meet clean slate.
Clean slate, meet blogger.
The dream of going 11-0 against the spread in the NFL playoffs is alive and well today because there hasn’t been a single game played yet. That all changes tomorrow afternoon. What a way to kick off the NFL playoffs: The 7-8-1 Panthers host Ryan Lindley and the Cardinals!
It’s come to my attention that I ‘ve picked only one game correctly in each of the last two Wildcard Weekends. That’s not good. The undefeated dream is usually dead by Saturday night of this first weekend. Two years ago I was able to grind out an 8-3 against the spread record over the course of the playoffs, but last year I took a major step back with a horrific 2-6-3 record by the time the Super Bowl confetti hit the MetLife Stadium turf.
It’s time to beat that 8-3 record.
Before I move on, I want to reiterate something I wrote after last year’s Wildcard Round:
“In three of four games, the team with the better quarterback won this past weekend (Andrew Luck over Alex Smith, Drew Brees over Nick Foles, Philip Rivers over Andy Dalton)…And three head coaches who have been criticized for years for making shaking decisions at the most important moments lost in the opening round (Andy Reid, Marvin Lewis, Mike McCarthy). File that away…among all the craziness and unpredictability of the season, we might be able to fall back on the trusted QB/Coach competency factor to make our picks going forward.”
Wow, so filing things away for future reference can actually work as long as you go back and review those things, huh?
Before I dive into the picks, let’s get through some general football housekeeping:
I don’t necessarily care if Ndamukong Suh is suspended or not, but I totally disagree with the people who are saying if this was a regular season game they’d be OK with a suspension. These are probably the same people who bellyache about penalties and enforcement of rules being different in the playoffs than the regular season. If it was a suspendable act in the regular season, it should be the same for the postseason.
Regarding the MVP, I’m fully in the J.J. Watt camp. People are always so quick to point out how the rules have changed to favor offense and scoring when they want to take away from offensive accomplishments. How about a defensive player putting up one of the greatest seasons in league history at a time when every rule works against him? No bonus points for the era Watt is currently thriving in? What if the situation was reversed? What if the NFL had changed the rules constantly over the past 10 years to lower scoring and reduce offense? If a QB put up a record-setting season during that time, he’d get the MVP, a Purple Heart, the WWE Heavyweight Belt and all the other awards in the world, wouldn’t he?
The news that broke a few days ago about Tom Brady restructuring his contract, accompanied by this article from Grantland’s Bill Barnwell, was just the third moment in the last seven years that caused Patriots fans to hyperventilate (Brady’s ACL and the loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl three years ago are the other two moments).
If you can remember way back to the start of the season, I entered into a bet with frequent guest blogger Neil regarding who could come closest to predicting each team’s win total correct. We picked records for all 32 teams in early September and tracked it throughout the year. I’m happy to report that after two straight years losing this same bet, I finally won. I was closer with 17 teams; he was closer with 14 teams; and we pushed on one.
In terms of precision, I nailed eight teams’ records exactly. Maybe I’m not so horrible at this prediction thing after all.
Interestingly, and randomly, we guessed all four AFC West teams exactly between us. Congrats, AFC West, for being the most predictable division in 2014!
The real reason I’m bringing this up is because Neil has already taken the attitude over the past week of refusing to acknowledge that this bet existed. He has pretended not to know a thing about it, and that worries me because as the winner, I’m entitled to force him to drink any eight alcoholic beverages of my choosing during a 12-hour period when we’re in Vegas two months from now. So for those of you who join us in Vegas, please keep this in mind if he doesn’t cooperate. I may need help enforcing the results of this bet.
Over the course of the season, I’ve made some futures bets that are still in play:
Indianapolis to win the Super Bowl (18/1 odds)
Baltimore to win the Super Bowl (33/1 odds)
Pittsburgh to win the Super Bowl (18/1 odds)
Dallas to win the Super Bowl (17/2 odds)
So if you’re counting along at home, I’ve spread my chips all over the proverbial board, backing four of the 12 playoff teams. Unfortunately I would have been better off waiting to bet the Ravens (now 40/1) and Colts (25/1). At least the Steelers are down to 16/1, somewhat validating my November bet on them.
Rather than go crazy with a ton of playoff bets that’ll never pan out, I thought I’d give you just three bets you can make today that will almost definitely work out:
Exact Super Bowl matchup – New England vs Dallas (8/1 odds): Yeah, the Cowboys finished 22nd in overall defense via FootballOutsiders.com (the only playoff team that was worse is Pittsburgh at 30th), but it’s not like we haven’t seen teams with bad defenses make deep playoff runs lately (New England, New Orleans, Green Bay, to name a few). And if we’re looking for one of the Super Bowl representatives to be a mini-surprise, why not Dallas? They have one of the best quarterbacks in football, a near record-setting running back, and arguably the best receiver in the league (In fact, this Dallas trio might be better than Pittsburgh’s oft-discussed big three). They went 8-0 on the road this year. They beat the Seahawks in Seattle. Basically, if they execute no worse than the regular season, they’ve got a great chance. I love Dallas to make it. And I don’t mind spitting in the face of the “Cowboys as chokers” narrative. C’mon, it’s the NFL. Why wouldn’t a team we all ruled out way back in August make it to the final game?
How many Wildcard teams will win this weekend? One (3/2 odds) and Two (5/2 odds): Technically this is two individual bets on the exact number of Wildcard teams to advance. But I love it because as long as one of the bets wins, you’ll make a profit if you laid out the same amount on them. Remember that the best four teams in football aren’t playing this weekend. And remember how clustered together all the other good teams were throughout the year. You don’t think there will be at least one or two upsets this weekend? (And don’t forget that one Wildcard team was an 11-game winner that’s facing a seven-game winner on Saturday.)
Ben Roethlisberger to record the most passing yards this weekend (2/1 odds): This is the only logical bet on the prop of which QB will throw for the most yards. You’re getting better than even odds to back the passer who led the league in passing yards, had nine separate games of 300+ yards and is facing a mediocre pass defense (Baltimore was 15th in the league). Oh, and it’s official: Le’Veon Bell is out for this game….so we might see Roethlisberger throw it 73 tims.
You don’t have to personally thank me for all three of these bets. Just advise 500 of your closest friends to start reading this blog and we’ll call it even.
And now for the picks…
Arizona @ Carolina (-6)
The Pick: Arizona
The Score: Carolina 20, Arizona 17
This game is a perfect example of “beware of your subjective, rooting interests influencing a pick that’s supposed to be made without emotion” for me. All week long I’ve looked for reasons to pick the Cardinals to win outright. I just like them more and don’t want to see the under-.500 Panthers advance simply because of unfortunate injuries to an 11-win team’s top two quarterbacks. But it’s impossible to look at this game objectively and not walk away convinced the Panthers will win.
Carolina’s defense is playing a lot better than Arizona’s lately. The Panthers also have some semblance of a running game and a steady, veteran quarterback at the helm. The Cardinals have none of those things.
The biggest problem with Arizona is figuring out how the hell they’re going to score any points. We know Lindley is a possible liability throwing the ball, but it’s even worse when the Cardinals try to run. They have the third worst rushing attack in the league.
The NFL rightfully put the least intriguing game in the least attractive TV timeslot, and I don’t imagine we’re getting a surprise “Ohmygod, that was such an incredible game” moment out of this one.
Winning 11 games in the toughest division, having the Coach of the Year, still employing a frisky defense…all of that’s gotta count for something, right? That’s why I like the Cardinals to cover even if I have to stop short of predicting the win.
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)
The Pick: Pittsburgh
The Score: Pittsburgh 26, Baltimore 21
There aren’t many running backs in the league whose participation or lack thereof should swing a game. Le’Veon Bell belongs in that miniscule group. On top of being one of the best pure runners in the league, he also had more than 80 receptions this year and never leaves the game, which tells you how good he is in pass protection too.
It’s unfortunate for the Steelers and for those of us who want to see teams at full strength that Bell is out for this game. I even wrote earlier this week that if Bell is out, I need to make sure I don’t just gloss over that because of how badly I want to pick the Steelers.
But on the other side, you have a Ravens team that’s only looked good this year when facing bad football teams. Their biggest weakness is pass defense, and the Steelers happen to have one of the most potent passing attacks in the league.
Baltimore, like most teams, has been far worse on the road. The only decent team they really beat away from Maryland this year was Miami. That no-show at Houston in a week 16 must-win game against Case Keenum is still so fresh in my mind.
These teams split their season series, with the home team winning by exactly 20 points in each game.
The Ravens rate out as a better team according to FootballOutsiders.com, though not by much.
You see why this is the hardest game to pick in Round One (and why I’m all over the map trying to find an edge for one team).
Even with a healthy Bell, you could make a case for Baltimore (battle-tested, great coach, decent quarterback, a great team according to all the advanced metrics).
Eff, this is tough. You know what? This is one game where I really think who’s at home and who’s on the road matters a lot. And what can I say? I’m a sucker for this Pittsburgh passing game. I’m also a sucker for my preseason prediction that Pittsburgh would face New England in the AFC Championship game.
Just know that I changed my mind on this particular game five times before ultimately deciding on the Steelers.
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-3.5)
The Pick: Cincinnati
The Score: Cincinnati 23, Indianapolis 16
Damnit! This was going to be my major upset. The line opened earlier this week at Indianapolis -6 and I instantly loved the Bengals to cover, and possibly win outright. I was hoping this would be a sneaky bet. The public was supposed to focus on Andy Dalton’s most recent game, a clunker at Pittsburgh last Sunday night. They were also supposed to remember Cincy’s 27-0 loss in Indy back in October because the collective media can’t reference that game enough times this week. But is it possible the Colts are so bad that everyone is willing to back one of the shakiest quarterbacks in big games on the road against a team that beat him by four touchdowns earlier this year? The line dropping by 2.5 points certainly makes it seem that way.
It’s incredible how evenly-matched these teams are (again, using FootballOutsiders.com as the guide here). The Colts are one spot ahead of the Bengals in overall team efficiency (12th for Indy, 13th for Cincy), overall offense (17th vs 18th) and overall defense (13th compared to 14th).
One thing I’m ignoring so far is the news from Friday that A.J. Green could be out of this game with lingering concussion symptoms. That would certainly impact things, but it sounds like we won’t know until Saturday what his final status is.
Regardless of that injury (Geez, talk about the three AFC North teams’ fates being determined by some major injuries), I think the Colts are bad enough that I’ll take the extra half point Vegas is giving me here. Even if Indy somehow pulls this game out, and we’ve certainly seen that before, it should be close (unless Andy Dalton wants to reach an all new level on the Cincy fanbase’s ShitList).
Detroit @ Dallas (-7.5)
The Pick: Dallas
The Score: Dallas 41, Detroit 17
Even in Cowboys fans’ wildest dreams, they never would have imagined their team laying more than a touchdown in a playoff game this year. This is the point-spread they assign to juggernauts.
They have a superior everything on offense, and their mediocre defense is only dealing with the 19th best offense in football. It’s not like the Packers or Broncos are rolling into Texas this weekend.
We have a full season sampling that says the Cowboys’ offensive line is fantastic, Tony Romo (when healthy and getting protection) is fantastic, and they are a truly good team. Do you realize if Romo doesn’t get hurt midway through the Cowboys’ week 8 game against Washington we’re probably talking about a 14-win Dallas team? That is downright scary.
And if we finally reference my own advice from last year about the QB & coach combo, well, the Cowboys demolish the Lions in both spots. I don’t think the person that controls the Jim Caldwell doll with a remote control can hang with Jason Garrett in this game (you’re damn right I just said something nice about Garrett).
Every Wildcard Weekend needs at least one blowout, and this feels like the one. It’s truly stunning how different this season has gone for the Cowboys based on preseason expectations. Fingers crossed that it continues that way for a few more weekends.
And just like that, I’ve given you the four winners plus three prop bets that can’t miss!
Enjoy Wildcard Weekend!
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged against the spread, football betting, football picks, football predictions, jason garrett, nfl playoff predictions, nfl round one, nfl wildcard weekend, ryan lindley, sports gambling, tony romo, wildcard weekend Leave a comment
NFL Week 12 Picks: We Need a Villain!
Posted on November 20, 2014 by Ross Gariepy
If it feels like this NFL season is missing something critical compared to last season, it’s because it is.
We have no villain in the NFL right now. Last year at this time the Seahawks were 10-1 and demolishing every team in their path. They also had a trio of trash talkers in Richard Sherman, Golden Tate and Earl Thomas, three guys who had never won anything significant in the NFL, yet didn’t mind telling the world that they were the greatest. You also had a coach in Pete Carroll who isn’t that hard to hate. And of course, there was the vaunted 12th man. Nothing worse than a group of fans who think they’re affecting games just a little bit more than they actually are.
Seattle gave us the villain we needed in 2013, and of course anyone who actually picked against them ended up being disappointed.
As I looked through all the teams with a chance to make the playoffs, I really struggled to find a candidate for this role. There’s essentially no team that the masses can root against in unity it seems.
Here are the only possibilities I came up with, and even then they’re a stretch:
Detroit: If only they still employed Jim Schwartz, one of the easiest coaches to hate. I guess you can hang onto the bad feelings that everyone had for Ndamukong Suh over the last few years and say he’s a dirty player. No one would argue that really. And the Lions did pick up Golden Tate, one of Seattle’s best trash-talkers from last year. But otherwise, what’s to dislike? The Lions haven’t been very successful lately, they don’t have star players that really make you gag at the mere sight of them, and their fan base doesn’t seem particularly obnoxious.
San Francisco: Their recent run of three straight NFC Championship game appearances probably sparks some hatred in fans of other NFC teams, and their coach is easily the least likeable head coach in football. Yes, you can’t help but root against the 49ers because it’s fun to see all the ways Jim Harbaugh can act like a three-year-old when the game isn’t going his way. They also have some questionable character guys, but which NFL team doesn’t at this point? Overall, this is probably my favorite team to hate out of the group, but I’m concerned that they might not even make the playoffs so we won’t have a chance to hate them in January.
Seattle: The Seahawks could absolutely go on a roll, end up with the #1 seed again, and give us a redo on rooting against last year’s villain. Not much has changed in terms of my dislike for them, except that they’ve been humbled repeatedly this year so a little bit of my passion for them is gone.
New England: I would guess that any year where we don’t have a true villain, the Patriots are the backup villain. This is mostly on account of their constant success and the ease with which people can point to Bill Belichick and say “what a dick.” As a Patriots fan, I just can’t understand this. New England is the model franchise and you should all look up to them and pray that your team someday becomes even half as good as they’ve been during this 14-year run. But if someone doesn’t volunteer to be the villain soon, and New England continues its march to another #1 seed, I’m afraid they’ll be the stand-in villain.
Baltimore: These guys might be just a hair behind the Patriots in terms of perennial dislike by the rest of the world. These days Terrell Suggs is probably the main reason for that. Just an ass of a person really. This is another team that has had a lot of recent success. As a bonus this year, people can decide to dislike them for the way they handled the Ray Rice situation. And don’t forget this is the team that employed Ray Lewis after he most likely murdered someone!
Denver: OK, so I’m well aware that the general public isn’t going to turn on Peyton Manning. They’re way too in love with him. But maybe it’s time to root against the guy who publicly called out a scoreboard operator because he revved the Denver crowd up too much when the Broncos were winning by like 45 points a few weeks back. A humble scoreboard operator probably lost his job, his home, his wife and his kids because of Peyton Manning. Why can’t we root against that?
In conclusion, we need a team to start throwing 80-yard bombs in garbage time when they’re up three touchdowns. Or we need a player to stomp on another player’s head/balls on a nationally-televised Thanksgiving Game. Or we need a coach/quarterback to go all John Rocker in a press conference and offend either an entire city or a specific group of people. WE NEED A VILLAIN!
Let’s move on to week 12, starting with the games we can appreciate for pure competitive reasons. This slate of games isn’t as promising as last week’s, but maybe that just means they’ll actually deliver some intriguing football compared to the week 11 bust. Here they are:
Detroit (7-3) @ New England (8-2) – Sunday 1pm ET
Cleveland (6-4) @ Atlanta (4-6) – Sunday 1pm ET
Cincinnati (6-3-1) @ Houston (5-5) – Sunday 1pm ET
Arizona (9-1) @ Seattle (6-4) – Sunday 4:05pm ET
Miami (6-4) @ Denver (7-3) – Sunday 4:25pm ET
Baltimore (6-4) @ New Orleans (4-6) – Monday 8:30pm ET
Basically any game featuring an AFC North team against an opponent that’s .500 or better will be on this compelling list the rest of the season.
We’re in the final week of byes, and we have only two:
Carolina (3-7-1): Hard to believe there was a time this season when Carolina was 3-2 and we didn’t think Cam Newton sucked. Their current six game winless streak makes perfect sense considering who they’ve faced in that time: Cincinnati, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Atlanta. OK, they should have won at home against Atlanta last week. That’s a loss that ends a season, except when you play in the NFC South. The Panthers’ remaining schedule isn’t very intimidating and they face New Orleans and Atlanta, the two teams they’re trying to catch in the standings, in December. But of course it’s useless trying to figure anything out in that division.
Pittsburgh(7-4): If the playoffs began today, the Steelers would be the #6 seed in the AFC. They still have two games against Cincinnati remaining, and those are huge because the Bengals lead them in the AFC North by half a game. Just like the NFC South, the AFC North is probably a long way from being determined, but for entirely different reasons. A three-team race among Pittsburgh, Cincy and Baltimore for two spots (division and a wildcard) is what we’ll be looking at over the season’s final month.
And now for the week 12 picks.
Kansas City (-7.5) @ Oakland
The Pick: Oakland
The Score: Kansas City 29, Oakland 24
Well, shit. This was supposed to be easy. Thursday night games are mostly blowouts so why wouldn’t we quickly pick the Chiefs and move on? Two things give me pause: 1) The Chiefs are coming off a very physical game against Seattle and had to travel to Oakland on short rest, and 2) Kansas City hosts Denver on Sunday Night Football in week 13.
If ever there were a combination trap game and letdown game, this would be the perfect spot for the Chiefs.
Could the Raiders pull off the upset? Probably not.
Could the Chiefs start out slowly, struggling to get up for a game on such short rest, and barely pull out the win? Absolutely.
If the Raiders can go a few more weeks without a win, I’ll be able to start hedging my 0-16 bet on them. We’re not there yet, but we’re getting close.
Cleveland @ Atlanta (-3)
The Pick: Atlanta
The Score: Atlanta 26, Cleveland 19
One team is 4-6, currently holds the #4 seed if the playoffs started now, and won a division road game last week.
The other team is 6-4, sits at #10 in the AFC’s playoff standings, and lost a home game last week to a QB making his first career start.
Should the 4-6 division-leading Falcons really be favored by three points over the Browns? Are the Browns the road team that beat Cincy by 21 in week 10 or the road team that lost to Jacksonville by 18 in week 7? And does Josh Gordon play a meaningful number of snaps right away, and how big will his impact be?
All these questions, and more, will be answered on Sunday.
I can’t believe I’m writing this, but I’m pretty confident the Falcons are taking this game and will be the proud owners of a three game win streak! Easy, there, NFC South. Don’t go being all good on us all of the sudden.
Listen, the Browns are seriously screwed on defense right now, and that’s never a good recipe for a road game against a better-than-average offense. I’m sorry to say, but this run of games that we thought was the winnable portion of the Browns’ remaining schedule—Houston, Atlanta, Buffalo—will probably end up as an 0-3 stretch that ends their season.
Tennessee @ Philadelphia (-11)
The Pick: Tennessee
The Score: Philadelphia 33, Tennessee 25
I used the most simplistic method as possible to pick this game. I simply repeated to myself out loud five times, “Mark Sanchez is favored by 11 points.”
Try it out yourself and see what conclusion you come to. I’m guessing it’ll be the same as mine.
After watching the Titans pretty closely on Monday night, my guess is that Zach Mettenberger plays just well enough over the final six weeks that the front office tricks itself into committing to him as their starter for next year, causing them to bow out of any QB sweepstakes in the upcoming draft. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or bad thing. I just know that Mettenberger will be Tennessee’s starter next September.
Detroit @ New England (-7.5)
The Pick: Detroit
The Score: New England 27, Detroit 23
The Patriots have covered the spread five times during their six game winning streak, and it hasn’t even been close in those games. They’re destroying the lines that Vegas has been setting.
That’s why I think this line is inflated a bit. My guess on Sunday night was that New England would be a 5.5-point favorite, maybe it would stretch to a full 6 points. The fact that it’s even more than a touchdown is Vegas’ way of saying, “We know you’re all gonna keep betting New England. All we can do is make the line ridiculous and hope they finally cool off a bit.”
What’s really interesting is that Green Bay has been destroying the point spread in their games lately too (five of their past seven games have been double digit blowouts in Green Bay’s favor). In week 13, the Patriots are at the Packers. Something’s gotta give.
I’m taking the Lions because I think both teams will struggle to score, and even though it might be one of those games where it feels like the Patriot are in control the whole time, they’ll only end up winning by 4 or 7.
Green Bay (-10) @ Minnesota
The Pick: Minnesota
The Score: Green Bay 30, Minnesota 22
As fantastic as the Packers are playing right now, they’re only 2-3 on the road this year, most recently losing at New Orleans and barely pulling out a last-minute win at Miami.
The last time these two teams met up, on October 2nd, Green Bay only won by 32 (In Minnesota’s defense, it was a Thursday night game and they were forced to start Christian Ponder at quarterback).
And while Adrian Peterson isn’t going to be around to help the Vikings, I’m taking them to cover. Maybe the Packers are looking ahead to a season-defining game against New England. Maybe Teddy Bridgewater at QB instead of Ponder is enough to swing this game. Or maybe I just hate taking a road team that’s favored by this much no matter the circumstances.
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-14)
The Pick: Jacksonville
The Score: Indianapolis 29, Jacksonville 20
Now a home team favored by an exorbitant amount…that I can get behind!
Well, actually I can’t. Because this week I’m employing a new strategy: Take the underdog in any game where the point spread is a touchdown or greater. I also appear to be taking almost all underdogs in general so far.
For this particular game, I’m justifying the Jaguars due to their 16th-ranked pass defense and the fact that they’re coming off some extra rest (remember that the Colts are down to Trent Richardson as their only running back. I think Jacksonville knows as well as the rest of America that Indy is throwing 50+ times per game for the rest of the year).
What scares me is that Andrew Luck seems like one of those guys who takes losses especially hard, and I doubt there’s any chance the Colts come out unprepared on Sunday.
But these huge point spreads are just like having a 16 in blackjack with the dealer showing a face card. Either you always hit or you always stay, and you just accept the fact that you’ll probably be right 50% of the time.
Cincinnati @ Houston (-1.5)
The Pick: Houston
The Score: Houston 33, Cincinnati 17
I’ll admit I was a little premature in declaring weeks ago that the Colts had locked up the AFC South. While it’s still more than likely that they do take the division crown, suddenly the Texans are right on their heels.
If Ryan Mallett is as legitimately un-Fitzpatrickian as he looked in his first start last week, couldn’t you see the Texans beating their next three opponents—home Cincinnati, home Tennessee, at Jacksonville?
If that happens, the Texans will go into Indy in week 15 either tied with the Colts or one game back. And then Houston finishes with home games against Baltimore and Jacksonville. It’s not totally unreasonable to think Houston gets to 10 or 11 wins, keeps the Colts honest through the end of the season, and secures a wildcard spot as the rest of the contenders deal with Big Boy NFL schedules.
Anyway, there’s no way Cincy’s winning this game. Mark it down as my favorite pick of the week.
NY Jets @ Buffalo (-4.5)
The Pick: NY Jets
The Score: NY Jets 17, Buffalo 3
What if I told you there’s an upcoming NFL game where one team got to practice and go through their weekly routine like normal for the past five days, and the other team was not able to practice once and their professional and personal lives have been chaotic for the past five days? Without knowing the teams or the point spread, you’d want to put a large bet on the team that got to practice all week, right?
Here are some sentences from an espn.com report about Buffalo from Wednesday:
“With driving bans in place across much of the area, Bills players were unable to get to the facility Wednesday and may not be able to practice Thursday either.”
“It’s very difficult to put in words exactly what is going on,” Doug Marrone said. “It’s just a very, very difficult and challenging situation…”
In case you’ve been in a technology-free blackhole all week, just know that Buffalo got five feet of snow on Tuesday and a couple more feet were due on Thursday.
This doesn’t feel like one of those situations where the home team thrives in the tough elements while the road team struggles, mainly because the home team hasn’t been able to practice in a week.
UPDATE: All of the above was written on Wednesday night, and by Thursday morning New York’s Governor was saying it would be impractical to play this game on Sunday. I have no idea what the league is going to do about this. If you have them play this game on Monday or Tuesday, you’re really screwing the Bills over because they face Cleveland next Sunday and would be on much shorter rest than the Browns. Good luck to the NFL. At least we know they’ll nail this decision like they do everything else.
Tampa Bay @ Chicago (-6)
The Pick: Tampa Bay
The Score: Tampa Bay 18, Chicago 6
Hey, it’s the matchup of two of the NFL’s worst teams this year who happen to be coming off wins and are trying to build on those! The Bears won their first home game of the year last week against Minnesota, and the Bucs won their second game in general at Washington. Who’s going to continue that slow rise up the NFL standings? And who deserves even the slightest nod of respect by being picked in this game?
I’m going with Tampa because I’m hoping (key word) their pass rush confuses Jay Cutler and that Lovie Smith has a trick or two up his sleeve to slow down his former team.
Also, Tampa can still win the NFC South!!! I won’t stop rooting for that until it’s mathematically impossible.
And it would be borderline criminal not to mention the Josh McCown revenge game factor. You can totally picture the Chicago faithful chanting “We Want McCown” during the 4th quarter as their Bears are losing by double digits, right?
Arizona @ Seattle (-7)
The Score: Seattle 23, Arizona 20
This line worked out perfectly because I guessed it would be Seattle by only 3, and because I’m already averse to picking touchdown-or-greater favorites this week.
This is the most confusing line of the week. Drew Stanton or not, how are the 9-1 Cardinals getting a full touchdown against a 6-4 team? Is it because Seattle’s effectively out of the playoffs with a loss and Vegas expects that back-against-the-wall mentality to shine through on Sunday?
Is it because the Cardinals continue to play over their heads and Vegas wants a ton of money on Arizona knowing soon enough they’ll cash in on the fall?
Whatever the reason for the line, I love it. Give me the Cardinals, and I’m looking forward to putting a moneyline bet on them because they will win this game outright.
One very specific thought on this game: It swings on a special teams play.
St. Louis @ San Diego (-4.5)
The Pick: St. Louis
The Score: St. Louis 26, San Diego 19
In the last 32 days, the Rams beat Seattle, San Francisco and Denver. They also outplayed the Cardinals for 3.5 quarters in Arizona until Austin Davis threw a pick-six and got strip sacked (also returned for a touchdown by Arizona) on back-to-back drives. Somehow, some way, they’re playing really good football.
In this week of picking underdogs when all else fails, all I’m looking for is a reason. The Rams’ recent play gives me plenty of reason to pick them to win outright.
Miami @ Denver (-7)
The Pick: Miami
The Score: Miami 23, Denver 21
I’m on a roll with the underdogs so let’s keep it going! This was going to be the game where I zigged while you were predicting me to zag. I was set to pick Denver to cover. After all, they’ve just gone through a rough stretch of three straight road games, and now they’re returning to the friendly confines of Sports Authority Field where they’re 5-0 this year.
But based on the information we have at this moment, it appears Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Ronnie Hillman may all be out for this game.
Miami has been good enough to this point to deserve my pick when facing any team that’s not at full strength.
The one danger with this pick: This will be Miami’s first cold weather game in 2014 as it’s expected to be 40 degrees at game time on Sunday. Many Miami teams just haven’t been able to win in cold weather. Will this be one of those teams?
Washington @ San Francisco (-9)
The Pick: San Francisco
The Score: San Francisco 43, Washington 3
There are enough games I’m confident in this week that I can happily stay far away from this one. What do you even do about these two teams?
In Washington, you have a team that is in utter disarray. In fact, we might have to make up a new word for them, whatever is way beyond disarray, chaos and anarchy. And that’s just in terms of off-the-field B.S. On the field it’s just as bad. They lost at home last week to Tampa Bay, the laughing stock of the NFC South (think about that designation for a second).
In San Francisco, you have a team that’s getting healthier, that’s been able to drown out the non-football noise that was so loud during the first half of the season, and has quietly won five of their last seven. But the concern with them is the nine points. You have to go all the way back to week 1 to find a game where the 49ers dominated (in their 14-point win at St. Louis in October, they were actually trailing 14-0 so that one doesn’t count).
I’m picking San Francisco because I’m certain the PotatoSkins players are just waiting to quit on their team (specifically their quarterback) at this point. If they’re down 10-14 points at any time during this game, I’m thinking it expands to 24-28 points rather quickly. It’s scary to think we maybe haven’t seen Washington’s low point just yet.
I realize I broke away from my “bet against all the heavy favorites this week” strategy, but this Washington team is now being dealt with by its own set of rules.
Dallas (-3.5) @ NY Giants
The Score: Dallas 37, NY Giants 17
That the Giants are only one game better than the worst team in the NFC is a sneaky fact. They’re not a shoo-in for the top pick in the 2015 Draft like Tampa, and they’re not a headline-grabbing drama show like Washington. They’re kind of under the radar awful, which means the general population has accepted Eli Manning throwing five interceptions as part of the norm.
Anyway, Dallas actually showed me something with an easy win against Jacksonville in London two weeks ago. It was a good bounce back effort after the Tony Romo injury and the loss to Arizona with Brandon Weeden playing. The Cowboys are a solid enough team to win by more than a field goal. They also happen to be 4-0 on the road, the only team in the league without a road loss. BIG game with Philly coming up on Thanksgiving for these guys.
Baltimore @ New Orleans (-3.5)
The Pick: Baltimore
The Score: Baltimore 33, New Orleans 16
This is the Ravens’ final game against an NFC South team this year. In their previous three games against that division, Baltimore did the following: win vs Carolina by 28, win at Tampa Bay by 31, and win vs Atlanta by 22.
This is a rare scenario where we know all four NFC South teams are about equal when it comes to winning football games in 2014. I don’t think the Saints at home should give you too much confidence these days. I like Baltimore to keep doing what they’ve been doing to this group of overmatched sorry excuses for a football team.
So I went really heavy on underdogs this week. I’m not making any promises, but this feels like one of those weeks where everything goes berserk throughout all of Sunday. We just haven’t had one of those in a while.
Enjoy week 12.
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged adrian peterson, against the spread, football betting, football predictions, new england patriots, nfl against the spread, nfl picks, nfl predictions, nfl villain, nfl week 12, nfl week 12 picks, point spread, seattle seahawks, sports gambling Leave a comment
NFL Week 7 Picks: De-Emphasizing the Gambling Obsession (maybe)
Posted on October 16, 2014 by Ross Gariepy
Six weeks of football seems like enough of a sample size to start drawing some legitimate conclusions. Every team has played at least a third of their season. Standings are important, but not necessarily the most important metric at this time. FootballOutsiders.com developed an advanced metric (DVOA is its acronym, and you can get an understanding of it HERE) that’s a much truer indicator of how a team’s performing rather than just looking at traditional things like points per game, yards per game, yards allowed, etc. I love looking at all the nuances involved in their many stats.
Let’s kick this column off by running through some things that jumped out at me when scouring the team DVOA stats on their website this week. Some things will surprise you, and some won’t:
Denver is the #1 overall team by DVOA, but more alarmingly for the rest of the league is the fact that they’re #2 in Defense DVOA. The Broncos finished last year as the #15 team on defense, and that was still good enough to get them to the Super Bowl.
The #2 overall team according to FootballOutsiders.com is….the Baltimore Ravens. Seriously. Somehow, someway, they rate out as the second best team in football.
The Seahawks, with their 3-2 record, are the third best team in football, ranking higher than Philly (6th) and Dallas (10th), both of whom are 5-1.
Detroit has the #1 defense in the NFL, but they check in at only 22nd on offense (other teams who similarly have top 10 defenses but bottom-half of the league offenses: San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo and Arizona).
Cleveland has the league’s #2 offense! The Browns! (Their 29th-ranked defense will eventually hold them back you’d have to think.)
San Francisco, despite our best efforts to discredit their defense before the season, has the #3 rated D unit.
The Saints, once again, have the worst defense in football.
After last week’s pooptacular picks by me, I started thinking deeply and in a philosophical way about football. I realized that getting caught up in my bets, the point spreads, fantasy leagues, my Suicide Pool and Pick ‘Em Leagues is causing me to lose focus of what used to be the true intrigue of football. During those weeks when all my shenanigans are working out, I’m happy as can be, but god forbid something like last week happens because then I’m swearing off football, wondering why I even watch. If I had stepped back from all that bullshit in week 5, here’s what I would have noticed:
The Dallas freakin’ Cowboys went into Seattle and marched up & down the field on the Seahawks. They turned Seattle’s home field advantage into the equivalent of Jacksonville’s home field advantage when it plays in London.
The Panthers and Bengals played an incredibly entertaining game where the two teams combined to tie up the game six different times. There were 74 total points scored in 75 minutes of football, and it was so good that neither team felt like winning it.
The Browns staked their claim as a legitimate threat in the AFC North, not by narrowly eking out a victory against the Steelers, but by kicking the Steelers’ asses right out of Cleveland.
I know there was more to love about week 5, but that’s what jumped out. So let’s all make a deal. We’ll keep making bets, making picks and playing fantasy football, but we’ll try our damnedest to remind ourselves what’s truly awesome about football.
Let’s get it started this week by previewing the games that could be extremely entertaining regardless of which way we’re betting:
Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Two teams that could fall anywhere between the #1 seed and the #6 seed in the AFC playoffs (well, the Colts will at worst be the #4 seed). Indy is surging, Cincy is reeling. Both cities are able to shorten their name by putting a “y” on the first syllable. This is a legitimately good AFC matchup.
San Francisco at Denver: A couple four-win teams, both of whom could be fighting for their respective division title all year against some tough competition, amidst the backdrop of Peyton Manning’s opportunity to break the all-time touchdown record. Two marquee franchises that absolutely need this win.
…and that’s it? Jesus Christ, I’m gonna have to ratchet up the amount of gambling a lot this week. I honestly can’t find any other compelling games on the schedule.
Screw the appreciation crap, let’s catch up with the bye teams and then jump into the picks:
Philadelphia: It’s a good thing the Eagles have started out 5-1 because the first six weeks was the easier part of their schedule. While they’ll be getting some key offensive linemen back after the bye, they might be without Darren Sproles for a bit. If they can continue beating up on the Houstons and Tennessees of the NFL, they should be positioned for a divisional showdown with the Cowboys in weeks 13 & 15. Throw in upcoming games against Green Bay and Seattle, and you can imagine the Eagles still having to fight to get to 10 wins.
Tampa Bay:
Here are the week 7 picks.
NY Jets @ New England (-10)
The Pick: New England
The Score: New England 38, NY Jets 11
First of all, I’m terrified of spreads this large. Second, I’m terrified of backing MY team with a spread this large. Third, I happen to remember a rain-soaked meeting between these two teams last year that ended in a 13-10 win for the Patriots, and it just so happens that rain is in the forecast for Thursday night. And finally, as I mentioned last week, Rex Ryan may still be able to walk away from these back-to-back games between Denver and New England saying, “We went toe-to-toe with the best in our conference.”
But because the Patriots are one of my “can’t get a read on them” teams of 2014, I’m going against all instincts and picking them to add to the Thursday night blowout legacy of 2014.
Atlanta @ Baltimore (-7)
The Score: Baltimore 34, Atlanta 20
Both teams have won big against Tampa Bay, and both have lost to Cincinnati. But that’s where the similarities seem to end. Atlanta is a complete disaster right now, as evidenced by their two-touchdown loss at home against the Bears last week. They were supposed to be unstoppable at home. Meanwhile, the Ravens seem to have found some offense for once, a scary proposition for the 31st-ranked Falcons defense heading into Baltimore.
If this isn’t at least a seven-point win by Baltimore, then football makes no sense and what are we even doing here?
Tennessee @ Washington (-5.5)
The Score: Tennessee 31, Washington 30
Classic Washington luck: They face Arizona in week 6 just in time for Carson Palmer to return and then get the Titans in week 7 right as Jake Locker seems poised to come back. I’m not saying either of those QBs is a Pro Bowler, but it’s just typical PotatoSkins to not even get the benefit of the backup QB that’s been playing for the last couple weeks.
Anyway, Tennessee is bad, but they aren’t a touchdown worse than Washington. The poor ‘Skins get to play in Dallas on Monday Night Football in week 8. I’m sure their fans are looking forward to hearing all about Dallas’ amazing 6-1 start.
Seattle (-7) @ St. Louis
The Score: Seattle 26, St. Louis 23
The Seahawks return to the site of last year’s rousing 14-9 win over the Rams, a game in which the great Kellen Clemens completed less than 50% of his passes, threw for no touchdowns and was intercepted twice. The Rams somehow stayed in the game because they were able to run for over 200 yards on the Seahawks. This time around Austin Davis gets to play the role of Clemens, and I see things playing out almost exactly the same.
Normally I’d think about taking Seattle here since they’re coming off a loss and probably pretty angry. But they lost Byron Maxwell (the 2nd best cornerback on the team) and Bobby Wagner (starting linebacker who happens to be their leading tackler) for the foreseeable future.
Cleveland (-6) @ Jacksonville
The Score: Cleveland 23, Jacksonville 19
This line feels inflated by at least a few points because the Browns are turning into the darlings of the NFL. The truth is Cleveland has barely won any road games over the past five years, let alone by a margin of six points or more. Did you know the last time the Browns won a road game by more than four points was September 18th, 2011?
I just don’t appreciate Vegas insulting me by adding an extra 2.5 points because the public suddenly loves the Browns. The crazy thing is this team may not get a true test until week 10. If they go into their road game at Cincy that week with a 6-2 record, please remember that they’ve beaten the following teams: New Orleans (can’t win on the road), Tennessee (can’t win anywhere), Pittsburgh (might not get to 8-8), Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay (three of the five worst teams in football).
Cincinnati @ Indianapolis (-3)
The Pick: Indianapolis
The Score: Indianapolis 31, Cincinnati 27
As I mentioned above, this is one of the only truly compelling games this weekend. It pits two teams that expect to win their division and are also hoping to finally leapfrog the Broncos & Patriots to get one of the 1st round byes.
Where I messed up last week in picking the Bengals to easily cover a seven-point spread over Carolina was not thinking the absence of A.J. Green would have any effect. Sure, they put up 37 points in that tie, but you can’t just expect a team to lose its best player and not skip a beat.
Also, their defense has looked horrific the last couple weeks. This is a game that should absolutely end in a three-point win for the home team. I’m just hoping Andrew Luck can give me a little more than that.
Minnesota @ Buffalo (-6)
The Pick: Buffalo
The Score: Buffalo 27, Minnesota 9
Hmm, this line was -4 for Buffalo as of Tuesday. When I saw on Wednesday night that it had jumped to its current line, I furiously searched for significant injury news (or news that Adrian Peterson briefly returned to the Vikings to give Teddy Bridgewater a good spanking for last week’s performance). Nothing. Neither team seems to be losing a key player or getting a key player back. What gives?
Maybe Vegas decided the Vikings’ 31st-ranked offense might get shutout against a very good Buffalo defense, and if that’s the case, a single touchdown by the Bills would cover the six points?
In the Vikings’ four losses this year, here’s how many points they’ve scored: 7, 9, 10 and 3.
They’re also coming off a loss to a physical team in Detroit that literally beat them up for 60 minutes.
I hate backing such a mediocre team by a touchdown, but I could see this going very badly once again for Minnesota.
Miami @ Chicago (-3.5)
The Pick: Chicago
The Score: Chicago 27, Miami 14
In terms of advanced metrics like DVOA, these two teams are somewhat evenly matched. But the Dolphins have only played one true road game this year, and they got crushed 29-10 by the Bills in that one (they played a “road game” against Oakland in London as well).
The Bears haven’t won a home game yet this year. I think they’ll fix this just fine on Sunday, and it shouldn’t be too difficult of a game.
New Orleans @ Detroit (-3)
The Score: Detroit 17, New Orleans 10
Why didn’t I include this in the matchups I’m looking forward to this week? Because it might be a battle of two bad offenses. Both these teams are likely to be missing their best weapons (Jimmy Graham for the Saints, Calvin Johnson for the Lions), and we all know the Saints struggle in general away from Louisiana.
I’m taking Detroit because at least they have the #1 defense in the league to fall back on. Over the past couple years, this is the type of game where Drew Brees throws three interceptions while trying to make too much happen. Even with a neutered offense, I’m still expecting the Lions to roar!
Yes, that last line was extremely corny. But I wrote it so I could quickly transition to reminding you that Katy Perry (who sings a song called “Roar”) is playing the Super Bowl halftime show in February. That means on top of the football, the food, the beer and the Super Bowl Squares, we get this on February 1st:
http://i.imgur.com/4WEP9.mp4
Carolina @ Green Bay (-7)
The Pick: Carolina
The Score: Green Bay 28, Carolina 27
In last week’s picks column, I talked a lot about my confidence picks and how you’ll know it when I’m extremely confident or supremely unconfident on certain games. Well just know that I’ve never stared at the computer screen without writing something longer than I just did for this game. I’m clueless.
By the way, FootballOutsiders.com also ranks every player by DVOA metrics, and currently Aaron Rodgers is the 5th best QB while Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are the top two wide receivers in all of football. Remember this as you watch the Packers continue to struggle. If I was a Green Bay fan, I would be writing weekly letters to try to get Mike McCarthy fired before Rodgers’ career ends with only the one Super Bowl appearance.
Better yet, pull a “Celtic Pride” and get Mike McCarthy drunk, lure him to your home, and then decide to “hold him” until Aaron Rodgers’ career is over.
Kansas City @ San Diego (-4)
The Pick: Kansas City
The Score: San Diego 27, Kansas City 24
I did a last second reversal on this pick. If you read my Power Rankings on Wednesday, you know how I feel about the Chargers. But a few things made me pause when I was about to pick them.
First, there’s the opponent. The Chiefs are coming off a bye and happen to have a pretty good pass rush. The Chargers are on something like their 12th center for the year. That worries me.
Also, as good as I think the Chargers are, I can’t help but notice their last four opponents were Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Jets and Oakland. I’m a little nervous they haven’t been tested in a bit.
And finally, they have a HUGE game at Denver just four days after this matchup with Kansas City. Can they be blamed if they’re looking slightly ahead and maybe don’t bring their best effort to week 7?
Arizona (-3.5) @ Oakland
The Score: Oakland 26, Arizona 23
I know, crazy upset pick, right? You can make the case that the coaching change from Dennis Allen to Tony Sparano during Oakland’s bye week was just what the doctor ordered. After all, they did almost beat San Diego last week. Of course, you could make the case that it was a one-game aberration.
I’d entertain the Cardinals as my pick a bit more if it were only three points. I’m just expecting some sort of crazy upset this week and this is my pick. Deal with it.
On the flip side, CARSON PALMER REVENGE GAME! After all, he had so many years, so many memories, so many successes in Oakland and they just unceremoniously cut ties with him after he gave his blood, sweat and tears for all that time.
NY Giants @ Dallas (-6.5)
I was torn on this one because I don’t think Dallas is truly as good as their record. But the problem is the Giants really don’t match up well with the Cowboys. Their biggest weakness is their run defense, as evidenced by the torching LeSean McCoy and the Eagles gave them last week. The Cowboys, you may have heard, have the best running back in football.
This whole “Dallas being good” thing really bothers me, but I’m not going to ignore the evidence that’s right in front of my face. They look good.
San Francisco @ Denver (-6.5)
The Score: Denver 26, San Francisco 21
Do they even play the game? Or do they simply have a three-hour ceremony to honor the record that Peyton Manning hasn’t broken yet?
Guys, I’m going to let you in on a little trick I use that will be particularly beneficial for this Sunday night game. I typically DVR “Football Night in America” and the night game and often watch them later on. Sometimes I have to actually live a life beyond football at the conclusion of the Sunday afternoon games. Other times I’ll choose to watch some TV shows with my fiancée, and then when she goes to bed I’ll turn the game on. What’s nice about this strategy is that I get to skip all the puff pieces on “Football Night in America” entirely. I watch Dan Patrick do the highlights of all the earlier games, and then I skip all the bullshit that Bob Costas, Hines Ward and the rest of the crew spews about whoever’s involved in the upcoming game. This Sunday night’s pregame show is going to be beyond intolerable. Please do yourself a favor and watch it on tape delay.
As for the game, did you know the Broncos have won two games by seven points, a third game by 14 only because of a late pick-six that made it seem more like a blowout than it really was, and their fourth win was a 21-point pasting against the Logan Thomas-led Cardinals. I’m just trying to say they haven’t been the dominators you’d expect them to be yet.
Also, remember how much Russell Wilson tortured Denver with all his 3rd down scrambling late in the Broncos matchup with Seattle in week 3? Well, Colin Kaepernick also knows how to run a little bit too.
Houston @ Pittsburgh (-3.5)
The Score: Houston 27, Pittsburgh 21
I have no confidence in the Steelers whatsoever. They seem so old on defense that I dread the thought of Houston’s skill players getting loose after catches or breaking off long runs.
Even though both teams are 3-3, if you compare the two schedules, you’ll be much more impressed with what Houston’s done. Even their losses the last two weeks have been extremely close.
This is a big game for two teams that want to get into the AFC wildcard mix.
And if you’re already looking forward to next week, I’ve got good news! In week 8 there are six potentially awesome matchups. In the meantime, try to enjoy week 7.
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged aaron rodgers, against the spread, andrew luck, andy dalton, celtic pride, football betting, football predictions, katy perry, mike mccarthy, NFL, nfl week 7, nfl week 7 picks, Peyton Manning, power rankings, sports gambling 1 Comment
Week 8 NFL Picks (And Ranking Each Team’s “Degree of Screwed” At QB)
After last week’s injuries to Jay Cutler, Sam Bradford, Nick Foles and Josh Freeman (a true murderers’ row of quarterbacks), there’s been a ton of emphasis on the state of QBs in the NFL. And rightfully so. A good quarterback can hide a lot of deficiencies for a team, and you pretty much need someone at least at Joe Flacco’s level of competence to win a Super Bowl.
So for this week’s intro to my picks, let’s stick with the quarterback topic. I split all 32 teams into groups based on one piece of data: What degree of screwed is this team when it comes to the quarterback position over the next 3-5 years. Of course things can change quickly in the “please target players’ knees, not their heads” NFL. But assuming reasonable health for all parties involved, this is what the list looks like:
We’re Not Even Remotely Screwed
Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers)
New Orleans (Drew Brees)
Atlanta (Matt Ryan)
Seattle (Russell Wilson)
Carolina (Cam Newton)
San Francisco (Colin Kaepernick)
Washington (Robert Griffin III)
Indianapolis (Andrew Luck)
I dare someone to argue that one of these teams should be concerned about their QB over the next five years. As far as age goes, Drew Brees is the oldest and I think he’ll be just fine for several seasons to come. RGIII feels like the biggest injury risk, but he’s already showing this season that we shouldn’t really be too concerned. What’s scary is that seven of the eight teams in this group are in the NFC. The AFC should be very very nervous about that.
We’re Not Even Remotely Screwed For Now, But In A Couple Years…
Denver (Peyton Manning)
Peyton’s having a better season than anyone in that first group, but the reason he gets his own section is because of his age and his surgery history. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he plays at a high level for three more years after this season, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if Bernard Pollard ends his career with a borderline legal hit in week 14. Denver probably doesn’t spend a high draft pick on a quarterback in 2014, but it wouldn’t be the worst idea.
We’re Normally In The “Not Even Remotely Screwed” Group But There’s Suddenly Some Concern
NY Giants (Eli Manning)
New England (Tom Brady)
Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger)
The concern? Eli’s trying to set the single-season interceptions record, Brady’s completion percentage is making New England fans long for the glory days of preseason when Tim Tebow was connecting on about 50% of his pass attempts, and Roethlisberger might be the oldest 31-year-old in the history of mankind. There’s plenty of time for these guys to turn things around. I highly doubt we’ll see any of them lose their jobs over the next two seasons, but I don’t think you can pencil any of them in as their team’s starting QB for the next three years without giving it some major thought first.
We’re Not Screwed, But We’d Prefer To Have A Guy From That First List
Dallas (Tony Romo)
Detroit (Matthew Stafford)
Miami (Ryan Tannehill)
Kansas City (Alex Smith)
Baltimore (Joe Flacco)
In this group you’ve got a couple fantasy all-stars (Romo, Stafford), a young guy who his team feels really good about (Tannehill), the definition of a game manager (Smith) and a Super Bowl winner who’s probably worth closer to 120 bucks than 120 MILLION bucks (Flacco). The common thread is that their teams are at least satisfied with their body of work so far, but more importantly, those teams know there probably aren’t any better QB options out there. So these are the teams that are “stuck” with 2nd tier QBs.
Thought We Were Screwed, But Now We’re Not…How ‘Bout That
San Diego (Philip Rivers)
Tennessee (Jake Locker)
We all wrote Rivers off after last year. At the same time, none of us have ever given Locker much of a chance. Both are proving us wrong in 2013. Locker still has room to be demoted to the “we’re screwed” group, and Rivers may not have 3-5 years left, but this feels like the right spot for now.
We’re Confused By The Question, Can’t Our Defense Just Keep Scoring Touchdowns?
Chicago (Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Jordan Palmer)
There’s no doubt who the starter is when he’s healthy, but what about beyond this season? Cutler is a free agent after 2013, and many people think this year was supposed to be his tryout for the new coaching staff. What if he doesn’t come back this season or doesn’t look the same when he does come back? He was on pace to have one of his best seasons and the Chicago offense looked better than ever. But this is his 2nd major injury in two years. And he’ll be 31 years old next season. Is his time in Chicago up? My money’s on him getting resigned mostly because when the Bears look out at the QB landscape, how can they see themselves upgrading over Cutler in the near term? But because of the injury and contract situation, things are suddenly in doubt.
It’s Way Too Soon To Know If We’re Screwed Or Not
Philadelphia (Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley)
Buffalo (EJ Manuel)
NY Jets (Geno Smith)
Of course the Bills and Jets would land in this group…they’ve got rookie starters who have both showed some promise, but by no means has either Manuel or Smith replicated the amazing rookie QB class from 2012. Comparing the two of them to the guys they replaced (Ryan Fitzpatrick in Buffalo, Mark Sanchez in New York) should have fans feeling optimistic. They’re not sniffing the Pro Bowl yet, but things are looking up. And while you could describe Philly’s situation as a mess, we don’t know enough yet about Foles and Barkley to say the Eagles are totally fucked. Vick is not a long term answer, Foles probably isn’t either, but who knows about the rookie?
We’re Probably Screwed But We’re Not Willing To Admit It
Cincinnati (Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson)
Oakland (Terrelle Pryor, Matthew McGloin)
With their current rosters, both teams are stuck with their starting QBs no matter what. There’s no viable option on Cincinnati or Oakland to take over if the starter should slip up or get injured. But these are two teams who could look for a QB in the 2014 draft (which is rumored to be a QB-rich draft by the way). The Raiders are the more obvious team when it comes to looking for their next QB. Pryor has been good this season, but I doubt the team’s ready to give him a franchise contract just yet. If you need an example of the Bengals’ monk-like patience, look no further than Marvin Lewis. He’s in his 11th year as head coach even though they’ve only made the playoffs four times, losing in the first round each of those years. So they may have that same level of patience when it comes to Dalton. But I wouldn’t. You’ve got an all-world receiver in A.J. Green, a solid running back duo (including a rookie in Giovani Bernard who could be a star), and a top-5 defense. If Dalton continues to be Dalton, your ceiling will always be Dalton. At some point they might have to admit that they’re screwed with him.
We’re Fucked
St. Louis (Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens…Brett Favre?)
Tampa Bay (Mike Glennon, TBD #1 overall draft pick in 2014?)
Arizona (Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, TBD draft pick)
Minnesota (Josh Free…no, wait, Christian Pon..no, that’s not right, Matt Cass…nope, that can’t be right either)
Houston (Matt Schaub, Case Keenum, T.J. Yates)
Jacksonville (Chad Henne, Blaine Gabbert, TBD draft pick)
Cleveland (Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer on 1 good knee)
Anyone surprised that these seven teams are in this particular group? Just look over those names and options next to each team. They really are all fucked in so many ways. The Rams seemed like they were in the best shape just one week ago, but Bradford’s injury messes all of that up. I can’t get over the fact that they actually inquired about Brett Favre’s availability. That doesn’t seem like real life. Maybe the Texans will come out of this group looking the best if Keenum can be decent? I dunno. This group is just depressing and they should each be doing everything in their power to position themselves for the best possible QB in the 2014 draft. But I’m sure at least one of these teams will fuck it up and take a wide receiver in the 1st round instead.
Let’s move on to the week 8 picks:
Carolina (-7) @ Tampa Bay
Cleveland @ Kansas City (-9)
I’m grouping these two games together for several reasons. The Panthers and Chiefs are very, very similar teams. I know the Chiefs are 7-0 and have been talked about as one of the best teams in the NFL for the past few weeks. And at 3-3, no one’s talking about Carolina in that same context. But I’ve got news for you. They’re almost identical. Both teams have excellent defenses (the Chiefs are 1st in the NFL in points allowed per game, the Panthers are 2nd) to go along with their iffy offenses. Football Outsiders has Kansas City as the 4th best team in the league. Carolina comes in at #6. And I want so badly to pick each of them this week. But can those sketchy offenses score enough to win by more than a touchdown? That’s the key question here.
I told someone on Monday that if the Chiefs were favored by less than 13 against Cleveland, I’d put my life savings on them. But I also decided two weeks ago that the Chiefs were not nearly as good as their record, and until Vegas gives them spreads that reflect their talent instead of that record, I was going to pick against them. And as a bonus the more competent Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns this week. You know what? I’m taking the Browns to win outright with a 24-17 shocker (which will lead to the entire world wondering why it took Cleveland so long to replace Brandon Weeden).
Meanwhile I’m a little uneasy about Carolina on the road, but I did say in my week 7 recap column that the final straw in Greg Schiano’s head coaching career would be an embarrassing home loss on national TV to a division rival. So let’s stick with that. Carolina wins easily, 23-6.
San Francisco (-17) @ Jacksonville (but really @London)
Since losing back-to-back games to Seattle and Indianapolis, all the 49ers have done is win four straight games by an average margin of 20 points. And none of those games were against the consensus worst team in football, who they just so happen to be facing this weekend. But there’s no predicting how smoothly a team will operate after dealing with the travel to London. And 17 points is just so much. I think I’ve gotten my pick wrong on every Jacksonville game this year. My instinct says to take the points so let’s roll the dice and go the opposite way. I’ll take a 49er win, 31-10.
Dallas @ Detroit (-3)
Per the agreement that all four NFC East teams apparently made before the start of the season, none of them are allowed to be two games above .500 at any time. So the Cowboys are losing. And what’s it been, like three weeks since Tony Romo had a game-losing drive? This is probably a coin flip of a game, but I’ll take the Lions to win 27-21.
NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-6)
After picking three favorites in the first four games, I’m almost obligated to take an underdog. That’s fine. I’ll take the bait. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if these two teams have very similar records by the end of the year. Give me the Giants to upset the Eagles, 26-21, causing a very small tremor across the NFL as a few misguided media types hypothesize that the Giants are about to go on a run and make a playoff push.
Buffalo @ New Orleans (-11.5)
Sean Payton against Buffalo with two weeks’ preparation. Rob Ryan’s defense against Thad Lewis. Drew Brees at home against anyone. Normally those three sentences are enough to talk me into taking such a heavy favorite, but hearing that Jimmy Graham might not play? That changes everything. The Bills are tough to get a read on, but if nothing more, I think they’ll be able to give us the backdoor cover in garbage time. In Thad Lewis I trust. The Saints win but don’t cover, 31-23.
Miami @ New England (-7)
Every time we think the Patriots are going to zig, they zag. No consistency from week to week. This would be frustrating enough if they were a random team I was trying to pin down for betting purposes, but it’s even worse when they’re YOUR team. The consensus this week is that the Pats are in trouble following that ugly loss to the Jets in week 7. But I’m going the opposite way. It sounds like Danny Amendola is practicing this week. What if the Pats have Amendola, Edelman, Gronk and the Ridley/Blount/Bolden trio at RB on Sunday? We could see their best offensive output of the season. And if Aqib Talib comes back to shut down Mike Wallace…the Dolphins aren’t that scary on offense. There’s probably a chance Tom Brady comes out and plays another atrocious game on Sunday, but I’m going against the grain on this one. Patriots win and cover, 34-23.
NY Jets @ Cincinnati (-7)
Part of me thinks the Jets spent the entire week circle jerking in their locker room because of their Super Bowl win over the Patriots last weekend. Usually a team that spends its practice time giving each other reacharounds and having spontaneous orgasms over a regular season win isn’t very prepared to play the following week. But I’m going to base this pick on the fact that New York’s pass rush might actually be legit, and if there’s a QB for a contending team that looks worse than Brady does under pressure, it’s the Ginger Prince Andy Dalton. And the Bengals lost their best cornerback for the year in Leon Hall last week so their defense takes a major hit. I’ve got the Jets covering, but the Bengals winning 23-18.
Pittsburgh (-3) @ Oakland
Vegas set this line knowing plenty of idiots would see that the Steelers have won two in a row and simultaneously associate the Raiders with being one of the worst teams in football. But the Raiders are frisky, at home, coming off a bye and have a QB who can make things happen. That’s enough for me to take the points. I like the Raiders to win an ugly game, 15-12.
Washington @ Denver (-14)
I should hit up my friends who are Washington fans for some cash in exchange for picking against the Redskins this week. Because believe it or not, every single prediction I’ve made about Washington this year—the preseason projections, the weekly picks, you name it—the exact opposite has happened. I feel that if I’m a true friend, I’ll keep picking against them until the Redskins find themselves in the Super Bowl. So, fine, I’ll use that as my reasoning. I’m taking the Broncos to bounce back from their Sunday night loss in a big way. They torch the Redskins 48-27.
Atlanta @ Arizona (-2.5)
This is a game tailor-made for the Cardinals. They got some extra rest after their Thursday night loss to Seattle, their defense is healthy and legitimately good, and their main weakness on offense (blocking/protecting the QB) is an area the Falcons probably won’t be able to expose. Atlanta has no pass rush, evidenced by the fact that Brady and the Patriots’ offensive line had their one fantastic showing of the year in Atlanta a few weeks back. If you need any more convincing on this game, just remember that Atlanta had to sweat out a win at home against the Bucs last week. The Cardinals have a good shot to go on a three-game win streak starting with this one. They get a week 9 bye then they’re home against Houston and @ Jacksonville. Arizona could somehow be 6-4 going into week 12. I say they at least start that stretch off on the right foot with a 27-17 win over Atlanta.
I found a line on this game on Monday afternoon and the Packers were only favored by 6.5. Obviously the current line is a pretty big jump. A couple things have happened since that opening line: The Vikings looked like the worst football team to ever play football on Monday night against the Giants, not exactly a juggernaut in their own right; The Vikings announced that Josh Freeman was concussed so Christian Ponder would be starting at QB this weekend; Adrian Peterson continued to not practice this week because of a hamstring injury. Needless to say they’re heading towards a Jacksonville or Tampa Bay level of pathetic at this point.
But Green Bay has been downright bad on the road this year. They’ve lost to San Francisco and Cincinnati while barely beating Baltimore. And all three of those games happened when they were mostly healthy (they’re no longer mostly healthy).
Peterson is the swing vote for me. If he was 100% healthy, I’d be taking the points because he’s had some big games at home against the Packers. But if he’s hobbled, and that might be the reason the Vikings decided to throw the ball an absurd 53 times with Freeman on Monday night, the Packers are going to win big. Remember that there’s some bad blood here…the Vikings employed Brett Favre for a while and Greg Jennings has been doing some trash-talking ever since he left Green Bay for Minnesota in the offseason. I can see an extra score or two by Green Bay if they are controlling the game in the 4th quarter. Let’s go with a Packers win, 33-14.
Seattle (-11) @ St. Louis
Poor Kellen Clemens. His first start in almost two years and it’s against Seattle. We’re talking about a guy who has thrown exactly 100 passes in the last four years. And if you think the Rams’ running game might take some of the pressure off Clemens, well I just checked and it turns out they have the 2nd worst running game in all of football. Seattle on the road doesn’t bother me when their opponent probably won’t put up a single point. Give me the Seahawks winning a lousy game, 23-0.
For those of you keeping score at home, in week 8 I’m taking:
8 Favorites & 5 Underdogs
Of those Underdogs, 1 is a Home Dog and 4 are Road Dogs
Enjoy week 8.
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged against the spread, football betting, football predictions, nfl picks, nfl predictions, picks against the spread, quarterback rankings, sports gambling, state of QBs in NFL, week 8 nfl picks 1 Comment
Week 7 NFL Picks Against The Spread
It’s pretty amazing that after this week the 2013 regular season will be 41% complete. Even more amazing is that I still feel like I’m getting warmed up with my picks. You’d think by now I’d have a good handle on this NFL season, but I don’t.
Need evidence? After finishing the 2012 season with a 58% win rate across all games against the spread (and barely ever dipping below .500 in a single week of picks), I’m floundering with a 37-51-4 record so far this year (42%). If you had bet $110 on every one of my picks so far this year, you’d be down $1,910 total. I should probably feel bad about that. But it’s a marathon. If you’re on the verge of losing your home or your loved ones because of my picks, come on out to LA and I’ll buy you a burger and a milkshake. That’s the best I can do. But this will turn around. It always does (I’m guessing. I don’t really know since it’s only my second year of tracking picks).
I need to turn a corner quickly or else it’s going to be me losing all my assets (which include a hastily put together grill from Home Depot and six months worth of dog food). So I spent some time yesterday going deep into all 92 of my picks from the first six weeks. Here’s what I know:
When the spread is 0-3 points, I’m a respectable 18-19-3 this year (yes, 49% correct is respectable when comparing it to that awful overall number).
When the spread is 3.5 points or higher, I’m an abysmal 19-32-1 (37%).
Breaking that down even further, when the line is between 3.5 and 7, I’m 12-18-1 (40%), and when the line jumps to 7.5 or higher, I’m 7-14 (33).
Pretty straight forward, right? The bigger the line, the worse I do. And in terms of me getting back on track this week, sadly there are only 4 lines that fall into my apparent wheelhouse. So here’s what I’m going to do. For the games with a big spread (by my definition at least), I’ll be going against my initial instincts no matter how obvious the pick seems. If all evidence points to the favorite covering, I’m going to switch it up and pick the underdog. And vice versa. I hate doing this. I really just wanted to stick to my process and assume things would eventually work out. But we’re too deep into the season to stay the course and expect a turnaround.
Staying the course at this point would be like a football team that was expected to contend for a playoff spot starting the season off looking really bad…the defense can’t stop anyone, the offense looks out of sorts, especially the QB as he throws eight interceptions in his first three games. And after week 3’s embarrassing 38-0 loss to a seemingly inferior team, the management gives everyone one more chance to turn things around. They stay the course only to see the team lose the next three games in equally embarrassing fashion, and that QB puts up another seven interceptions over that time. But then, after falling to 0-6, absolutely nothing happens. No shakeup. No coach getting fired. This QB who’s on a record-setting pace for interceptions in a season doesn’t get benched, doesn’t get called out publicly. Nothing. They stay the course again. Does that sound like good management and a recipe for turning things around?
Exactly. And I don’t want to look back in three more weeks and say I wish I would have changed things up earlier. That’s why the change for me comes now.
In case you didn’t already figure it out, that team I just described is the 2013 New York Giants.
So if you’re thinking of backing any of my picks, just know that my season is most closely resembling that of the New York Giants. Good times.
Let’s get to the week 7 picks:
Seattle (-7) @ Arizona
After all that talk about going against my instincts for every large spread, I’m refusing to do so for this game. I just feel so strongly that this will be a close game. We all know the Seahawks aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home, regardless of who they’re playing. And this particular opponent just happens to have a legit defense. If I told you that Arizona will most likely be able to neutralize Seattle’s running game and their top receiver, would you still be willing to take them to cover the seven points? I guess if you think the Seahawks defense will have some big plays against the error prone Cardinals offense you might be inclined to still take the favorite here. With my luck, Seattle will return three Carson Palmer interceptions for touchdowns. But I’m sticking to my guns here. Seattle wins without covering, 22-17.
Sorry for that confusion, I promise to change things up for most of the other games that fall into my “death zone.”
New England (-3.5) @ NY Jets
My initial thought is to take the Jets with the points, mostly because of the mounting injuries on the Patriots defense. Vince Wilfork’s season-ending injury was alarming enough, but now Jerod Mayo is out for the year and Aqib Talib may be out a little while (here’s yet another example of why I hate making picks on a Thursday…we still don’t know Talib’s status for this weekend). The Jets have shown themselves to be at least semi-competent on offense. This game is in New Jersey. And sloppy Thursday game or not, the Jets did hold New England to 13 points in their week 2 matchup at Gillette Stadium. Everything points to another close game so that’s why I’m going against those facts and taking the Patriots to cover in blowout fashion, 28-10.
Side Note: Maybe Rob Gronkowski could have done us all a favor and announced a while back that he’d be on the Derrick Rose rehabilitation plan. I feel like that would have saved the fans and media lots of time and energy debating why he hasn’t returned yet. After this week, the Pats have back-to-back home games against Miami and Pittsburgh before their bye week. Imagine this team being 8-1 and then getting Gronk, Shane Vereen and a hopefully healthy Danny Amendola for the stretch run?
San Diego (-9) @ Jacksonville
Easy pick here. Old Ross would have taken the points thinking that Jacksonville at home against the worst defense in football with Chad Henne at the helm would at least keep this to a respectable loss, especially with the cross country travel for San Diego on a short week. So without any further research whatsoever, let’s switch it up and take the Chargers to cover with a 33-13 win.
Side Note: Philip Rivers is a prime example of why fantasy football will someday cause me to jump off a bridge. How much time did we spend in August studying up on fantasy rankings? Trying desperately to determine the correct ranking of the Rodgers, Manning, Brady and Brees foursome atop the QB projections? And then we spent high draft picks or a crazy amount of auction money on those guys. And Philip F-ing Rivers goes undrafted in nearly every league only to be the 4th best QB through six weeks (on a points per game basis). And I doubt we’ll see a drop-off because he still faces Jacksonville, Washington, the Giants, Oakland and Denver (twice)…all terrible defenses.
Cincinnati @ Detroit (-3)
Sneaky good game here. Both teams are 4-2. Both have legitimate aspirations to win their division. And based on the next handful of weeks, I could see the winning team rolling to something like an 8-3 record before their respective schedules become more difficult in week 13. Big game. What I didn’t realize until a few minutes ago is that Cincinnati hasn’t looked good at all on the road this season…they’ve lost at Chicago and at Cleveland and nearly blew it against Thad Lewis in Buffalo last week. Even if Calvin Johnson didn’t look great in week 6, at least he played. He should only get healthier. I’m picking Detroit to cover with a 26-20 win.
Buffalo @ Miami (-7.5)
The Bills could get blown out in this game, right? They’ll have to start Lewis at QB once again. They’ve been bad on the road (seven-point loss at the Jets, 13-point loss at Cleveland). Miami’s coming off a bye and still looks like a solid team. I think you get the drill at this point. Since my instincts for these lines suck, I’m going with the Bills to cover. Miami still wins 29-24.
Side Note: Last week Thad Lewis faced a top five defense in Cincinnati and he threw for over 200 yards with two touchdowns and a 100.5 passer rating (while pushing the Bengals to the brink in overtime). Per the Matt Flynn contract rules that were established two years ago, doesn’t Lewis automatically get a six-year, $75 million guaranteed contract from some irresponsible team in the offseason?
Chicago @ Washington (PICK)
I’m taking Chicago to win 34-24. This looks like a terrible matchup for Washington on paper. The 2013 Bears have a legit offense, particularly with their many weapons in the passing game. That Redskins just so happen to be terrible at defending the pass. I hate to say it, but I think it’s time to write off the 2013 Redskins. They just don’t look right.
Meanwhile Washington fans are getting a glimpse through five games of what life with RGIII could be like in 5-7 years when running isn’t an option for him anymore. In his 2012 rookie season, Griffin averaged only 26.2 passing attempts per game, throwing for about 213 yards in those games. He ran for 54 yards per game. The low passing attempts and the rushing yards (which made him a dual threat to every defense) translated into a solid 2.7 touchdowns-to-turnovers ratio, but more importantly, 11 wins.
Through this first part of the 2013 season, Griffin’s rushing yards are down to 30 per game, and his average passing attempts are way up to 41.8 (289 passing yards per game). The result is a much worse touchdowns-to-turnovers ratio (0.67) while getting the Redskins off to a 1-4 start.
There are other possible reasons for Washington’s rough start, but I don’t think those numbers are a coincidence. With the threat of Griffin running essentially nonexistent, defenses are able to focus on stopping him as a passer. The good news for Redskins fans? He ran nine times for 77 yards in his last game, he’s only 23 years old, and his knee will only get healthier as time passes. It may be too late to salvage the 2013 season, but I’m betting on big things from him in 2014 (barring the typical Washington sports luck throwing him another major injury or a bizarre firearms felony).
Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3)
This line has been all over the place. I’ve seen one sportsbook open it as a PICK and another open it with Dallas as the three-point favorite. Which means they’re just as confused as I am. We’re talking about two evenly matched teams. Lots of offense, little defense. Philly will be without Michael Vick again. Dallas lost DeMarco Murray last week. Oddly enough the Eagles haven’t won a home game this year. But the Cowboys don’t have a road victory yet either. Both teams have beat Washington and the Giants, and both have lost to San Diego, Kansas City and Denver. In times like these I usually lean on whoever has the better coaching and QB matchup. Well, Dallas gets the nod in the QB department, but Philadelphia might actually win the coaching battle even with a rookie head coach. As much as I want to pick Dallas, I’m talking myself into Philly. With their top-ranked running game, ball control offense and the less-error-prone-than-Michael-Vick Nick Foles running the show, I think they don’t let Tony Romo do enough Tony Romo things. The pick is Philadelphia to cover and win, 29-24.
St. Louis @ Carolina (-6)
The initial instincts point to the Rams being a frisky team that covers the majority of the time when they’re underdogs against an equally questionable team. They’ve outscored the opposition 72-33 in their last two games, including a road win in Houston last week. At 2-3, why would the Panthers be favored by six over anyone? The line on this should be Panthers by three. I don’t know why it’s six and I don’t care. I’m taking the Panthers to cover because it’s the opposite of what I should do. I guess I’m hoping for a ton of running against St. Louis’ horrible run defense? Carolina wins, 20-12.
Side Note: The real reason I’m picking Carolina is because they’re my only hope for the three preseason Super Bowl bets I made. You must be wondering how that’s possible. The Panthers?? Your best bet to win the Super Bowl??? Well, I loved the NFC South going into the year so I had my intern go to Vegas in August and place three bets: Atlanta 9/1 odds, Carolina 40/1, Tampa Bay 60/1. So that sucks. Looking at the Panthers’ schedule…if everything breaks exactly right for them…they might claw their way to 9-7. A 10-6 record would take New Orleans resting its starters against Carolina in week 16 or the Patriots somehow losing to them on Monday Night Football in week 11…I’m fucked.
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-7)
The right choice is clearly to take Tampa and the points. Why? Let me count the ways: Atlanta is 1-4. In what crazy alternate reality are we living that a 1-4 team is laying a touchdown? Atlanta lost Julio Jones (it’s best receiver) for the year, and Roddy White (its 2nd best receiver) probably isn’t playing this week. Steven Jackson still might not be back. They’ve been terrible on defense. The old fallback of “Atlanta almost never loses at home” is no longer true since they lost back-to-back home games against the Patriots and Jets this year. Even if Tampa Bay is really really bad, it’s still a divisional game and even the worst teams get up for those. What am I missing?
Oh yeah, I’m missing the fact that I suck at making picks this year. I’m going with Atlanta to cover and pinning my hopes on Mike Glennon coming unglued in a loud dome. The only way the Falcons cover realistically is if by some act of god they go up by three touchdowns early. No way that Tampa offense comes back from that big of a hole. The final score is Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 16.
San Francisco (-4.5) @ Tennessee
This is such an easy pick: San Francisco covers and wins, 24-3.
With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, the Titans have been way too close to pulling off upsets against good teams the past two weeks (Kansas City and Seattle). The wheels haven’t totally fallen off this Tennessee team yet, but they will. And when we talk about wheels coming off a Fitzpatrick-led team, we’re talking all four wheels flying off the car while it’s barreling down the freeway at 80 miles per hour AND the spare tire somehow flying out of the car through the sunroof. That’s what Mr. Fitzpatrick brings to the table. Meanwhile the 49ers have quietly gotten things back on track after that two week disaster in September when they got outscored by Seattle and Indy 56-10. Since then, they’re 3-0 with their worst game in that stretch coming last week when they only beat Arizona by 12. We all temporarily forgot about San Francisco, but when they bring their 7-2 record into New Orleans in week 10, we’ll be like, “Oh, right, San Francisco. Fuck, they’re good.”
Houston @ Kansas City (-7)
Kansas City’s #1 ranked pass defense against T.J. “Don’t call me Matt Schaub just because I also like to throw pick-sixes” Yates. In Kansas City. The Chiefs are undefeated. The Texans are 2-4 and on a four-game losing streak. In their past two road games Houston has been outscored by a combined 52 points. Feel free to bet heavily on the Chiefs. There are plenty of reasons to justify it. But not me. I love the idea of taking the Texans for no obvious reason. It makes absolutely no sense, but I’m predicting a wild upset here. Houston shocks us all (well, not me since I’m predicting it) and hands KC their first loss, 24-21.
Cleveland @ Green Bay (-10)
Although Green Bay’s defense sucks and its best offensive weapon, Randall Cobb, is out for a while, I’d still normally be taking the Packers to cover because Brandon Weeden vs Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field seems like a sick joke intended to increase the suicide rate in Cleveland by 10,000%. But once again, you know the drill. I’m forcing myself to grab Cleveland and the points here. I’ll have to bank on the Cobb injury totally short circuiting the Packers offense and for Josh Gordon to be the best player on the field not named Aaron Rodgers. Cleveland scores a victory…sorry, a moral victory, as they cover the spread, but Green Bay wins 26-22.
If you’re as into football as I am, you’ve probably experienced this exact scenario: You make all your picks for Pick ‘Em league purposes, Suicide Pools, your weekly blog, etc on Thursday or Friday. You’re feeling good about most of those picks. Saturday rolls around and while you’re watching college football you make some bets on those upcoming NFL games, backing those same picks from earlier in the week. You read a bunch of “expert” predictions on different sports websites, and you see some of those experts talking about their picks on different TV shows. You start to get an uneasy feeling because there’s this one game where you thought your pick was going to be at least slightly rogue, only every single person seems to be picking the same team as you. Sunday morning rolls around and you call some of your buddies hoping someone, anyone, will make the case for the opponent of that team. But nobody does. And then you realize that sneaky pick you made is destined to lose because the entire world backed it. (This is the close relative of the sleeper team in the preseason that becomes not a sleeper at all because the entire world decides to pick them as a sleeper and then that team totally implodes once the season begins…for instance, this year’s Tampa Bay team).
This doesn’t happen every week, but when it does, I get so pissed off that I didn’t see it coming.
Ladies and gentlemen, I’m warning you right now that Pittsburgh is that team this week. And I totally get it. The Ravens stink. They can’t score. They can’t run. They can’t pass. Their defense isn’t winning games. On the other side the Steelers could be right back in the thick of things in the AFC North if they win. Believe it or not, Pittsburgh’s offense has been better than Baltimore’s this year. And of course the game is in Pittsburgh.
Everyone is going to be taking the Steelers. For that reason alone, I’m picking Baltimore to cover and win, 23-17.
Denver (-7) @ Indianapolis
All the numbers and everything else we’ve seen from these teams so far tell me we should be taking Indy and counting on a close game. After all, the Colts offense isn’t so bad itself and their defense has actually played better than Denver’s this year. That just means I’m going with the reversal here and picking Peyton Manning and the Broncos to lay siege to the city of Indianapolis…they’re going to rape & pillage, burn everything to the ground, and walk away with a convincing 44-27 victory.
Side Note: As far as Jim Irsay’s antics from earlier this week go, I absolutely love what he’s doing. It’s the perfect crime. If the Broncos come to town and demolish the Colts, the Irsay-Manning stories will go away and we’ll all move on with our lives. But if the Colts somehow pull off the upset, people will ask Irsay if the ceremony to honor Manning and the subtle jabs he took at #18 in the media were his way of trying to get inside Manning’s head and throw him off. And even though Irsay will deny any attempts at throwing Manning off, he’ll do it with a wink and a smile, and we will all think he’s an evil genius. There’s no downside for him in creating all this commotion before the game. It’s almost too perfect of a plan.
Minnesota @ NY Giants (-3.5)
What a beaut of a Monday Night Football game! I’m sure ESPN’s ratings will be off the charts for this one. Two teams with a combined record of 1-10!!! Eli Manning vs Josh Freeman! Can we just skip all the foreplay on Sunday and fast forward to Monday please?
But seriously, I’m picking the Giants to cover and it’s not even a question. In my Pick ‘Em league where we rank our picks by confidence points, I might even select this as my most confident pick of the week. Why? Because while the Giants have been bad, unlucky and unhealthy, the Vikings have been bad, horrible and putrid. And I’m even willing to admit that Josh Freeman is a significant upgrade from Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder. Doesn’t matter. The Giants will win, 33-23.
Side Note: If your girlfriend/wife/mistress is used to you watching every Monday Night game no matter what, you could choose to be a hero this week and tell her you’d rather do something she wants to do than watch another measly football game. It’s the perfect game to miss. And hey, when you’re getting that Thank You BJ from her later that night, be sure to think of me. Or don’t.
Definitely don’t.
For those keeping score at home, in week 7 I’m taking:
9 Favorites & 5 Underdogs (Chicago-Washington doesn’t have a favorite or underdog)
Of those 5 Underdogs, 1 of them is a Home Dog and 4 of them are Road Dogs.
Way too many favorites in there. Oh well. If this new method doesn’t work, next week I might be handing the reigns over to my girlfriend. Enjoy week 7.
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged against the spread, expert football predictions, football predictions, jim irsay, new england patriots, new york giants, nfl picks, nfl predictions, nfl week 7, nfl week 7 picks, Peyton Manning, rob gronkowski, sports gambling 1 Comment
NFL Week 5 Picks Against The Spread
Posted on October 3, 2013 October 4, 2013 by Ross Gariepy
Well that was quick. Just a week after many of us wondered what would take the place of Breaking Bad in our post-football Sunday night TV schedule, we have an answer. No, not Homeland or Eastbound & Down (though I will eventually catch up on both shows). And no, the answer is definitely not “turn the TV off and spend quality time with the family.”
The answer, it turns out, is more football. What a power move by Roger Goodell. He saw an opening in our collective schedules and attention spans, and he filled it.
Sure, it looks like the best he could come up with this week is San Diego at Oakland, which probably won’t be an aesthetically pleasing experience, but now we can legitimately watch 14 hours of non-stop football this Sunday. Man, that feels good to type. (In case this news flew under the radar for you, this game got moved from 4:25pm EST to 11:35pm EST because of a “scheduling conflict” with the Oakland A’s.)
And you know Goodell’s not done, either. Next week I fully expect a statement from the NFL saying they’re moving the Patriots/Saints game to a 10:30pm EST kickoff out of respect for the unfortunate New England fans who have tickets to both the Pats game and game 2 of the ALCS at Fenway on Sunday. And on and on it’ll go because Roger knows we will watch football whenever he decides to show it.
Did you know that exactly one football team shares its stadium with a baseball team? You’re telling me someone couldn’t have thought ahead to October and the one stadium that might cause a scheduling conflict? They couldn’t have planned for this? That’s ridiculous. And how long does it really take to get the field ready for football? Because they already would have had a minimum of 15 hours after the A’s game ended to get everything in order if they kept the football game at its original time.
But why am I complaining? Someone’s ineptitude is leading to more football. Fine by me.
Speaking of Bay Area football, did you know that Jim Harbaugh openly talked about jizz in a news conference last week? I’ll spare you the potential embarrassment of your wife, girlfriend or mom finding “Jim Harbaugh jizz” in your google search history and provide you the link HERE. I’ve got nothing more on that. I just thought it was a must-mention because how often does a person mention jizz in a non-jizzy context?
One more random Bay Area football tidbit you ask? Fine, here it is. Remember when we thought Matt Flynn’s life couldn’t get any worse after losing out on starting jobs that were catered to him in back-to-back years? Well he’s now officially the Raiders’ third string QB, behind Terrelle Pryor, and…..drum roll please, Matthew McGloin! Who? Matthew McGloin, an undrafted rookie out of Penn State who’s obviously never taken an NFL snap. In one sense Flynn’s life isn’t so bad because he’s getting paid a guaranteed $6.5 million over the next two years. But in another sense, the guy’s NFL career is effectively over, right? I guess being Aaron Rodgers’ understudy for four years doesn’t guarantee you a successful career like being Tom Brady’s understudy does.
Jesus Christ, why is there so much random news out of the two northern California teams this week. Last one for real. San Francisco defensive back Donte Whitner is apparently dropping the “W” in his last name so it reads “Hitner” because he’s so sick and tired of being fined for dangerous hits. Have you ever heard of two things less correlated with one another than him changing his name and the discipline he receives from the league? Personally I would have gone full heal and changed it to “Hitler”. Or maybe something completely dorky like swapping the “T” and the “N” so it would be Whinter, and then he could say he’s the guy who puts the game on ice or something. I don’t know, just spitballing here. Anyway, the guy sounds like a major douche.
If Sunday’s football schedule looks strangely amazing, that’s because it is. You can make the case that four of the worst teams in football are on byes (Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Washington…combined record = 2-14) while two other semi-uninteresting teams are playing on Thursday (Buffalo at Cleveland) and one more hideous team plays on Monday night (the Jets). Taking out seven of the least interesting teams from Sunday’s slate seems like goodness for us. I’m willing to say there are 8.5 very interesting games on Sunday.
Let’s get on to the money-making for the weekend. If you were waiting for me to have a good week before starting to back my bets, welcome to the start of your gambling season. I went 9-5-1 last week, bringing my season total to….24-35-4. Baby steps.
Buffalo @ Cleveland (-4)
If this wasn’t a Thursday night game, I’d be so confident in the Browns it would border on overconfidence. The Bills aren’t good, and we won’t know until game time whether or not their top handful of defensive backs will play (not to mention C.J. Spiller is a game-time decision). And of course it’s important not to get too high on the Browns just yet because, after all, they’re the Browns. And these Thursday games have a way of being ugly, low-scoring affairs. But I’m still taking Cleveland to cover, winning 23-14. I’m pinning my hopes on those DBs for the Bills not playing, in which case Josh Gordon and Cameron Jordan will have a field day.
Side Note: If this was a Sunday game, I’d be taking Cleveland as my suicide pick. I like this team that much.
Kansas City (-3) at Tennessee
Here’s how much confidence I have in Ryan Fitzpatrick: When I was guessing the lines of each game earlier in the week, I predicted the Chiefs would be 10-point favorites, even though they’re on the road and facing a 3-1 Titans team. I’ll admit 10 is probably aggressive and I’m much more comfortable picking the Chiefs by a field goal. Their pass rush seems legit, and I’ve seen how Fitzpatrick operates under pressure from his time with the Bills. It’s not going to be pretty. If you want to make the case for the Titans, I guess you pin your hopes to the Chiefs not yet proving much on the road? They beat Jacksonville by 26 on the road in week 1, which doesn’t count as a real game, and then they beat the Eagles in Philly by 10 in week 3, but that was with the assistance of 73 Eagles turnovers. So we still don’t know about Kansas City on the road against a competitive team. But I’m not falling for it. Give me the Chiefs to win, 20-13.
Baltimore @ Miami (-3)
Miami’s loss to the Saints on Monday night was a blowout, but it wasn’t in the same vein as the way Jacksonville got destroyed by Seattle a couple weeks ago, or the way Jacksonville got pummeled by Indy last week (or the way Jacksonville will probably lose by triple digits in Denver 10 days from now). It was competitive for the Dolphins for a while, and better execution on one or two plays probably would have kept it close. But the Saints had too many dynamic offensive options (Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham specifically), and a pretty vicious pass rush on Ryan Tannehill. That’s how you’re beating Miami this year. So do the Ravens have those components? Yes and no. Defensively they still get after the QB pretty consistently and their run defense is top 10. But where the Saints are dynamic and dangerous on offense, the Ravens are…whatever the opposite of those words are. Inflexible and safe? This is a tough call, but I’m thinking Baltimore’s one of those teams just like the Giants, when you think you’ve got ‘em figured out, you don’t. Going against my gut here and picking Baltimore to cover and win, 31-27.
Jacksonville @ St. Louis (-11.5)
Here come the back-to-back weeks where you’ll be picking the Jaguars to cover despite how terrible they are. But while the Jags are openly bad, the Rams are in-the-closet bad. They just lost their last two games by a combined 48 points, including a Thursday nighter where every team keeps it close. A big part of me wants to take Jacksonville to win outright, and if Chad Henne was starting, I would. But I don’t have the balls to think Blaine Gabbert can pull out a win on the road. Of course Jacksonville covers, but the Rams win, 30-24.
Side Note: Two weeks ago I planned ahead for the Suicide Pool and I marked down St. Louis as my pick for this week. But now, no fucking way. Don’t blow it on what could be Jacksonville’s only win of the year.
New England @ Cincinnati (-2)
The beauty of what was happening with the Patriots this season is that I actually stopped caring two weeks ago when Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola would return. I know they’d be a huge help on offense, of course, but the defense was playing so well that it really didn’t matter what was happening with the receivers. That all changed when Vince Wilfork went down with the season-ending injury. Now we should be concerned about the D over the long term. Eventually the offense might have to pick up the slack. Is Cincy the team that bursts this fun, unexpected 4-0 bubble?
I can tell you betting on the Pats for the rest of the year is going to go one of two ways. Either they really are that good of a team and we’re all going to profit off these spreads that have them as underdogs or slight favorites when facing decent teams, or they’re not that good and we’re going to struggle all year long trying to figure them out. For this week, I’m going with the more ideal (from a Pats fan standpoint) scenario and picking the Patriots to win, 27-23.
Seattle (-3) @ Indianapolis
The Seahawks’ offense has scored 28 total points in their two road wins this year. It’s no secret that they’re a very different team away from Seattle. But the Colts nearly lost to Oakland at home, then actually lost to Miami at home before winning big in back-to-back road games. Since one of those blowout wins was Jacksonville, I have no idea what to make of this team still. I can tell you that Indy’s run defense blows. So even if Russell Wilson and the pass game struggles, Marshawn Lynch might have a huge day. If this line was a half point higher, I’d definitely be taking the Colts. But it’s not so I’m not. Seattle covers and wins, 26-20.
Detroit @ Green Bay (-7)
I hate picking games early in the year when it involves a team that already had a bye. I feel like we know nothing about the Packers. They’re 1-2. They’ve played a good team, a decent team and a bad team. A fluky loss against that decent team, Cincinnati, is the difference between 2-1 and 1-2. But their pass defense seems to legitimately suck still. And very quietly, Detroit has turned into a possible contender. Their defense is finally playing well, their offense has more options than ever before under Matt Stafford, and the combination of Jim Schwartz and Ndamukong Suh surprisingly hasn’t cost the Lions any games yet. I fully expect Green Bay to win this game because it’s at home, they’ve had two weeks to prepare and they’re something like 15-1 against Detroit over the past eight years. But my very specific prediction for this game is that the Lions will hold a lead late in the 4th quarter, won’t be able to run out the clock, and the Packers will march down the field and win the game, 37-34…meaning Detroit covers.
New Orleans (-1) @ Chicago
I actually thought the Bears would be a slight favorite only because the Saints haven’t been tested on the road yet this year. Their one win away from the Superdome was against Tampa. Chicago, meanwhile, is 2-0 at home. What we’ve got in this game is a Saints offense that excels at passing and sucks at running going against a Bears defense that’s great against the run and bad against the pass. On the flip side, the Bears’ offensive running game is great and the Saints run defense is horrific. Hmm…
I’ve been resistant to jump on the Saints bandwagon, but if there’s one more seat available, I’ll gladly take it. I can’t get over the fact that Chicago squeaked out home wins against the Bengals and Vikings and now an offense that’s firing on all cylinders (can there be a “firing on more than all cylinders”?) is coming to town. I think Bears fans appropriately lower their expectations on this team after Sunday because the Saints win 31-24.
Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-3)
How in the hell is New York favored in this game, right? Well, because outside of beating up on the comatose Redskins in week 1, the Eagles have been nearly as bad as the Giants…or at least it appears that way. But to the Eagles’ credit, they have faced two of the better teams in the AFC (Kansas City and Denver) as well as a frisky AFC team (San Diego). As much as I’d like Eli Manning’s time as an effective QB to be over, I don’t think that’s the case. I’m always going to be slightly scared of the Giants’ ability to randomly put up a 450-yard passing game and 30+ points. But Chip Kelly will play to his team’s greatest strength in this game, running the ball over and over again. Or, I should say, he better play that way. Run all over the Giants and keep Manning’s time on the field to a minimum. Sounds like a foolproof game plan to me. Philadelphia wins a close one, 29-26.
Carolina (-2) @ Arizona
The 1-2 Panthers favored on the road? That’s weird. Listen, I’m won’t pretend to know a ton about these two teams, but if you’re into the advanced stats that Football Outsiders provides, Carolina is sneaky good this year. And they’re coming off a bye. While the Cardinals are 2-2, remember that last week’s win was against the Mike Glennon-era Buccaneers. The only thing the Cardinals have excelled at so far in 2013 is defending the run. So can the Panthers win if they have to throw a lot? I’ll let you decide for yourself how meaningful this stat is: The Panthers are 4-14 over the past three years when Cam Newton has thrown the ball more than 30 times in a game. And when you consider that Patrick Peterson might be able to neutralize Steve Smith, what else does Carolina have? I know how bad Arizona is. I really do. But Carolina on the road against a superb run D? Not happening. Arizona wins 19-15.
Denver (-9) @ Dallas
No, Dallas, you do not get to be the first team that stops Denver from covering this season. I don’t care that your aerial attack is competent and the Broncos’ weakness is in its pass defense. If you don’t execute flawlessly the entire game, you’re cooked.
Seriously, when’s the last time you watched a Cowboys game and thought “flawless execution”? Let’s say it’s a semi-close game into the 3rd quarter and then a Cowboys’ drive stalls out. Denver takes over and suddenly they’re up 10 or 14 points. Now the pressure’s on Tony Romo and the offense to score on every single drive the rest of the game. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Eventually the Broncos’ scoring pace will slow down—just like New England’s did in November of 2007—but not in this game. Denver rolls to 5-0 behind a 38-24 road win.
Houston @ San Francisco (-7)
This line is too high. I actually think these two teams are very similar. Both have strong offensive lines, above average defenses and one issue on offense that’s keeping them from being a true Super Bowl contender. For the 49ers it’s the lack of healthy wide receivers, which leads to defenses focusing on Anquan Boldin and not having to worry about much else. For the Texans, it’s Matt Schaub. Not a specific part of his game. Just him in general. So while I think San Francisco wins this game, it won’t be by a touchdown. Give me Houston to cover but the 49ers to win, 24-20.
Side Note: Remember when I cried like a little baby earlier this week about having to make picks on Thursday before we have all the info on key injuries? Patrick Willis’ status is of prime importance going into this game. If he plays at 90% of his normal level, the 9ers will be fine. If he’s out, I could absolutely see the Texans pulling off the upset. He’s that important to San Francisco’s defense.
San Diego (-4) @ Oakland
Hey, it’s the trial run of the late late game. What will the ratings for this game be on the East Coast? 0.00? -3.5? I don’t know how ratings work but I know the lower it is, the worse it is. And I can’t imagine a single person in the eastern time zone staying up for this one.
It feels like the line’s one point too high, right? I know the Chargers are playing pretty well and are only two plays away from being 4-0 instead of 2-2. But I see a divisional road game against a sneaky OK quarterback in Terrelle Pryor, not to mention the weird time this game starts. I think this will look a lot like your typical Thursday night game. San Diego wins, but doesn’t cover, 20-17.
NY Jets @ Atlanta (-10)
The Falcons have not been a good team so far this year. Normally I’d jump all over a team getting 10 points against them, but I think I’ve got the Jets pegged this year. They’ll look good against any team that has a below average offense (their two wins are against Tampa Bay and Buffalo). The Jets’ defense is solid, but they can’t keep up with an offense that can score in the high 20s or above. The Falcons’ offense isn’t exactly soaring these days, but it’s good enough at home to win by at least a touchdown. When you factor in a rookie QB for the Jets playing on the road in a loud dome, with his two best WRs out (Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill), I just don’t see good things happening for New York. I might be kicking myself for thinking Atlanta’s competent enough to win by double digits, but I’m counting on the Jets to do lots of Jetsy things in this one. Atlanta wins 33-20.
Side Note: And here is my suicide pick for the week. Atlanta. As much as I wanted to hold onto them for their week 7 home game against Tampa Bay, I just don’t see a better option this week. The name of the game is survival and this pick seems to be the best bet this week.
Of those 8 Underdogs, 2 of them are Home Dogs and 6 of them are Road Dogs
Posted in General BS, Sports Tagged against the spread, breaking bad, donte whitner, football bets, football picks, football predictions, gambling lines, hitler, jim harbaugh jizz, NFL, roger goodell, week 5 NFL Leave a comment
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RT @MollyJongFast: This is amazing https://t.co/8wYTMxbqN0 5 days ago
RT @barstoolsports: Missed opportunity not having Mo ref this game https://t.co/jintZipc26 1 week ago
A movie about an architect whose buildings keep getting blown up in apparent terrorist attacks, but the villain is… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2 weeks ago
My favorite tweet...ever?? twitter.com/FreddieCampion… 1 month ago
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Feel free to discuss @mattblanchette @matysugs twitter.com/JMechanic/stat… 1 month ago
RT @FitzyGFY: Ryan Izzo catching Cam Newton’s Hail Mary at the 10 yard line is the perfect metaphor for the season. 1 month ago
RT @GOLisi: It was always going to be hard, comedy-wise, following up the Four Seasons Total Landscaping bit, but hair dye streaking down h… 2 months ago
From memory: Brown bear Red bird Yellow duck Blue horse Green frog Purple cat White dog Black sheep Goldfish Teache… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 2 months ago
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Study shows how the number of winter days have decreased in Manitoba over a century
Rachel CrowSpreadingWings Videojournalist
@RachelCSW_TV Contact
Published Wednesday, December 2, 2020 9:06PM CST
A winter shot in Winnipeg. (Source: Rosanna Hempel)
WINNIPEG -- Manitoba has been growing less cold and snowy over the past 100 years, according to a new report from a group of North American researchers.
The report says during the 1910s, the sustainable cold period lasted about 146 days. But by the 2010s, it was down to 126 days.
"We are going to start seeing more winter that looks like this, where we have mild temperatures and less snow," said Dr. Nora Casson, a researcher with the University of Winnipeg who helped put the report together.
Winnipegger Wayne Charski said this isn’t the type of winter weather he grew up with.
"In my time, it was freezing, but things have gotten a little warmer," he said. "But it’s still at this time of year, you would be in snow (and) 20 below, so this is awesome."
While the warm temperatures may be welcome to some people, Casson said the conditions are leading to an early spring and early winter runoff, which can increase nitrates in stream water. This can cause potential acid pulses and even impact municipal water supplies.
"By using these long records, we’re able to put day-to-day variation in weather in context," said Casson.
The report showed everything is connected. Less snow leads to frozen soil, which is meaningless protection for tree roots. This leads to root damage, decreased growth, and less ability to retain nutrients.
This also impacts wildlife and their winter habitats, which could reduce the population of small mammals and change predator-prey relationships.
"Those really cold days are also important for keeping things like forest pest infestations at bay because forest pests, like the southern pine beetle, can’t survive when the temperatures are that low," Casson said. "So, the less cold days we have, the more they are able to extend their range northwards."
Natalie Hasell from Environment Canada said in Manitoba, we have seen a huge change with the weather this year.
"(At the) end of June, early July (there were) horrendous amounts of precipitation falling in the Brandon area and nearby, but it’s December now and we’ve had very dry conditions since August," said Hasell.
Still, Casson said it is not too late for us to restore our climate to the way it used to be.
"The winters that our children and grandchildren experience will be the result of the choices we make today," said Casson.
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https://warriorswire.usatoday.com/2018/03/09/kevin-durant-on-comeback-over-spurs-i-told-myself-to-empty-the-clip/
Kevin Durant on comeback over Spurs: 'I told myself to empty the clip'
Chris Biderman
It appeared the offensively challenged Warriors were going to crumble Thursday against the Spurs, dropping their first game since the All-Star break after losing Stephen Curry just minutes into the contest with another right ankle injury.
But Kevin Durant decided otherwise. Fifteen of his 37 points came in the fourth quarter, including 14 straight, to help Golden State come back from down eight points with 4:44 remaining to extend the team’s winning streak to seven games with a 110-107 victory.
Durant had the line of the night afterwards.
“We were struggling a bit and I told myself to empty the clip,” Durant told reporters. “We got some good shots. I was fouled on a 3-pointer, I think that’s what got me going. I made those three free throws and felt good shooting the midrange as always. Just try to press go.”
Kevin Durant (37 PTS, 11 REB, 4 BLK) and LaMarcus Aldridge (30 PTS, 17 REB) duel in Oakland! pic.twitter.com/iy16ZbTMbc
— NBA (@NBA) March 9, 2018
The Warriors won despite struggling shooting against the NBA’s second best defense. They hovered around 40 percent for the game before finishing at 43.2 percent at the horn.
Durant added 11 rebounds and four of the Warriors’ 12 blocks on the night. His team was without David West (cyst in right arm), Andre Iguodala (sprained left wrist) and Jordan Bell (sprained right ankle).
Draymond Green had a triple-double with 11 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. Klay Thompson had just 13 points and went 5-of-16 from the floor, but was still plus-19 on the night.
The Warriors will travel to play the Blazers, winners of eight straight, Friday on a tough back-to-back. Curry won’t travel with the team on the quick two-game road trip and will miss Sunday’s game in Minnesota. The earliest Curry can return is Wednesday against the Lakers.
Here's @KDTrey5 on his brilliant 4th quarter ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/pKYUkaHDnz
— Warriors on NBCS (@NBCSWarriors) March 9, 2018
Stephen Curry won't play Friday against Blazers after tweaking ankle
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Graham E. Fogg
Filters: Author is Thomas Harter [Clear All Filters]
Lund, J. R., Frank R. M., Harter T., & Fogg G. (2015). California Water Policy Seminar 2015: Groundwater Problems and Prospects.
Overview of California Groundwater by Graham Fogg, Jan. 5, 2015 (134.57 KB) California's 2014 Groundwater Legislation by Tina Cannon Leahy, Cynthia Tuck and Kay Williams; Jan. 12, 2015 (149.43 KB) Sharing Groundwater: Legal Issues and Challenges by Davis Aladjem and Richard Frank; Jan. 26, 2015 (138.51 KB) Toward Groundwater Sustainability Planning in an Agro-Urban Basin by Tim O'Halloran, Feb. 2, 2015 (152.54 KB) Groundwater Management Practices for Local Sustainability by David Orth, Feb. 9, 2015 (140.22 KB) State activities by Michael Lauffer and David Gutierrez (152.81 KB) Groundwater-dependent ecosystems by Maurice Hall, Richard Frank and Thomas Harter (142.78 KB)
Viers, J. H., Fogg G., Smart D., Fremier A. K., Nichols A. L., Phillips K., et al. (2015). Cosumnes Research Group 3 Annual Report - 2014.
Cosumnes Research Group 3 annual report 2014 (1.8 MB)
Lund, J. R., Harter T., Gailey R., Fogg G., Frank R. M., Dahlke H., et al. (2015). Creating Effective Groundwater Sustainability Plans.
Lund, J. R., Harter T., Gailey R., Fogg G., Frank R. M., Dahlke H., et al. (2015). A Detailed Outline for Groundwater Sustainability Plans under California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.
APPENDIX.pdf (64.75 KB)
Lund, J. R., Harter T., Gailey R., Frank R. M., & Fogg G. (2015). The Earth is Falling! - Land Subsidence and Water Management in California.
Gailey, R., Fogg G., Harter T., Lund J. R., Dahlke H., Frank R. M., et al. (2015). Keeping Accounts for Groundwater Sustainability.
Lund, J. R., Harter T., Gailey R., Fogg G., Frank R. M., Dahlke H., et al. (2015). A Table of Contents for Groundwater Sustainability Plans under California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.
A Table of Contents.pdf (55.43 KB)
Harter, T., & Lund J. R. (2012). Addressing Nitrate in California’s Drinking Water: Executive Summary. (Darby, J., Fogg G., Howitt R., Jessoe K., Pettygrove S. G., Quinn J. F., et al., Ed.).Addressing Nitrates in California's Drinking Water.
King, A. M., Jensen V. B., Fogg G., & Harter T. (2012). Addressing Nitrate in California’s Drinking Water: Technical Report 5 - Remediation of Groundwater Nitrate.
Boyle, D. B., King A. M., Kourakos G., Lockhart K., Mayzelle M. M., Fogg G., et al. (2012). Addressing Nitrate in California’s Drinking Water: Technical Report 4 - Nitrate Occurrence in Groundwater.
Harter, T., Lund J. R., Darby J., Fogg G., Howitt R., Jessoe K., et al. (2012). Addressing Nitrate in California’s Drinking Water with a Focus on Tulare Lake Basin and Salinas Valley Groundwater. Report for the State Water Resources Control Board Report to the Legislature. 80.
Rains, M. C., Dahlgren R. A., Fogg G., Harter T., & Williamson R. J. (2008). Geological control of physical and chemical hydrology in California vernal pools. Wetlands. 28, 347–362.
Rains, M. C., Fogg G., Harter T., Dahlgren R. A., & Williamson R. J. (2005). The role of perched aquifers in hydrological connectivity and biogeochemical processes in vernal pool landscapes, Central Valley, California. Hydrological Processes. 20, 1157–1175.
Fleckenstein, J., Anderson M., Fogg G., & Mount JF. (2004). Managing Surface Water-Groundwater to Restore Fall Flows in the Cosumnes River. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 130(4),
Mount, JF., Fogg G., Kavvas L., Fleckenstein J., Anderson M., Chen Z Q., et al. (2001). Linked Surface Water-Groundwater Model for the Cosumnes River Watershed: Hydrologic Evaluation of Management Options to Restore Fall Flows.
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Do Climate Projections Have Any Physical Meaning?
Guest essay by Pat Frank
This essay expands on a point made in a previous post here at WUWT, that climate models do not produce a unique solution to the energy state of the climate. Unique solutions are the source of physical meaning in science, and make a physical theory both predictive and falsifiable.
Predictive because a unique solution is a derived and highly specific statement about how physical reality behaves. It allows that only one possibility, among an infinite number of possibilities, will occur. A unique solution asserts an extreme improbability; making it vulnerable to disproof by observation.
Falsifiable because if the prediction is wrong, the physical theory is refuted.
Figure 1 in the previous post showed that the huge uncertainty limits in projections of future global air temperatures make them predictively useless. In other words, they have no physical meaning. See also here (528 kB pdf), and see Figure 1 here, a paper just now out in Energy & Environment on the pervasive negligence that infects consensus climatology. [1]
This post will show that hindcasts of historically recent global air temperature trends also have no physical meaning.
The Figure below shows data from Figure SPM.5 of the IPCC 4AR. [2] The dark red line in the top panel shows the multi-model average simulation of the 20th century global surface air temperature. The blue points are the 1999 version of the GISS land+sea global average air temperature record. [3] The correspondence between the simulated and observed temperatures is good (correlation R = 0.85; p<0.0001). The inset at the top of the panel shows the SPM.5 multi-model average as published in the 4AR. The grey IPCC uncertainty envelope about the 20th century simulation is ± one standard deviation about the multi-model mean.
The IPCC’s relatively narrow uncertainty envelope implies that the hindcast simulation merits considerable confidence. The good correspondence between the observed and simulated 20th century temperatures is well within the correlation = causation norm of consensus climatology.
The bottom panel of Figure 1 also shows uncertainty bars about the 20th century multi-model hindcast. These represent the CMIP5 average ±4 Wm-2 systematic cloud forcing error propagated through the simulation. The propagation is carried out by inserting the cloud error into the previously published linear equation that accurately emulates GCM air temperature projections; also see here (2.9 MB pdf). Systematic error propagates as the root-sum-square.
Figure 1. Top panel (red line), the multi-model simulation of the 20th century global air temperature (IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5). Inset: SPM.5 multi-model average 20th century hindcast, as published. Blue points: the GISS 1999 land+sea global surface air temperature record. Bottom panel: the SPM.5 multi-model 20th century simulation with uncertainty bars propagated from the root-sum-square CMIP5 average ±4 Wm-2 cloud forcing error.
The consensus sensibility will now ask: how is it possible for the lower panel uncertainty bars to be so large, when the simulated temperatures are so obviously close to the observed temperatures?
Here’s how: the multi-model average simulated 20th century hindcast is physically meaningless. Uncertainty bars are an ignorance width. Systematic error ensures that the further out in time the climate is projected, the less is known about the correspondence between the simulation and the true physical state of the future climate. The next part of this post demonstrates the truth of that diagnosis.
Figure 1 from Rowlands [4], below, shows “perturbed physics” projections from the HadCM3L climate model. In perturbed physics projections, “a single model structure is used and perturbations are made to uncertain physical parameters within that structure…” [5] That is, a perturbed physics experiment shows the variation in climate projections as model parameters are varied step-wise across their physical uncertainty.
Figure 2. Original Legend: “Evolution of uncertainties in reconstructed global-mean temperature projections under SRES A1B in the HadCM3L ensemble.” The embedded black line is the observed surface air temperature record. The horizontal black lines at 1 C and 3 C, and the vertical red line at year 2055, are PF-added.
The HADCML model is representative of the behavior of all climate models, including the advanced CMIP3 and CMIP5 versions. Different sets of parameters produce a spread of projections of increasing deviation with simulation time.
Under the SRES A1B scenario, atmospheric CO2 increases annually. This means the energy state of the simulated climate increases systematically across the years.
The horizontal black lines show that the HADCM3L will produce the same temperature change for multiple (thousands of) climate energy states. That is, different sets of parameters project a constant 1 C temperature increase for every single annual climate energy state between 1995-2050. The scientific question is, which of the thousands of 1 C projections is the physically correct one?
Likewise, depending on parameter sets, a constant 3 C increase in temperature can result from every single annual climate energy state between 2030-2080. Which one of those is correct?
None of the different sets of parameters is known to be any more physically correct than any other. There is no way, therefore, to choose which temperature projection is physically preferable among all the alternatives.
Which one is correct? No one knows.
The identical logic applies to the vertical red line. This line shows that the HADCM3L will produce multiple (thousands of) temperature changes for a single climate energy state (the 2055 state). Every single Rowlands, et al., annual climate energy state between 1976-2080 has dozens of simulated air temperatures associated with it.
Again, none of the different parameter sets producing these simulated temperatures is known to be any more physically correct than any other set. There is again no way to decide which, among all the different choices of projected annual air temperature, is physically correct.
This set of examples shows that the HADCM3L cannot produce a unique solution to the problem of the climate energy state. No set of model parameters is known to be any more valid than any other set of model parameters. No projection is known to be any more physically correct (or incorrect) than any other projection.
This means, for any given projection, the internal state of the model is not known to reveal anything about the underlying physical state of the true terrestrial climate. More simply, the model cannot tell us anything at all about the physically real climate, at the level of resolution of greenhouse gas forcing.
The same is necessarily true for any modeled climate energy state, including the modeled energy states of the past climate.
Now let’s look back at the multi-model average 20th century hindcast in the top panel of post Figure 1. Analogize the multiple temperature projections in Rowlands, et al., Figure 1, that represent the ignorance widths of the parameter sets, onto the single hindcast line of SPM.5. Doing so brings the realization that there must be an equally large set of equally valid but divergent hindcasts.
Each of the multiple models that produced that hindcast has a large number of alternative parameter sets. Those alternative sets are not known to be any less physically valid than whatever set produced each individual model hindcast.
There must exist a perturbed physics spread, analogous to Rowlands Figure 1, for the 20th century hindcast projection. The alternative parameter sets, all equally valid, would produce a set of hindcasts that would diverge with time. Starting from 1900, the individual perturbed physics hindcasts would diverge ever further from the known air temperature record through to 2000. But they have all been left out of Figure SPM.5.
The model states that produced the SPM.5 20th century hindcast, then, do not reveal anything at all about the true physical state of the 20th century terrestrial climate, within the resolution of 20th century forcing.
That means the multi-model average hindcast in SPM.5 has no apparent physical meaning. It is the average of hindcast projections that themselves have no physical meaning. This is the reason for the huge uncertainty bars, despite the fact that the average hindcast temperature trend is close to the observed temperature trend. The model states are not telling us anything about what caused the observed temperatures. Therefore the hindcast air temperatures have no physical connection to the observed air temperatures. The divergence of the perturbed physics hindcasts will increase with simulation time, in a manner exactly portrayed by the increasingly wide uncertainty envelope.
This conclusion remains true even if a given climate model happens to produce a projection that tracks the emergent behavior of observed air temperatures. Such correspondences are accidental, in that the parameter set chosen for that model run must have had offsetting errors. They were inadvertently assigned beneficial values from within their uncertainty margins. Whatever those beneficial values, they are not known to be physically correct. Nor can the accidental correlation with observations imply that the underlying model state corresponds to the true physical state of the climate.
The physical meaning of the recently published study of M. England, et al., [6] exemplified in Figure 3 below, is now apparent. England, et al., reported that some CMIP5 projections approximated the air temperature “hiatus” since 2000. They then claimed that this correspondence proved the, “robust nature of twenty-first century warming projections” and that it, “increase[s] confidence in the recent synthesized projections reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report.”
Compare Figure 1 of England, et al., 2015, below, with Figure 1 of Rowlands, et al., 2012, above. The horizontal black lines and the vertical green line transmit the same diagnosis as the analogous lines in Rowlands, et al., Figure 1.
The England, et al., set of CMIP5 models produced constant air temperatures for multiple climate energy states, and multiple air temperatures for every single annual climate energy state. This, despite the fact that, “all simulations follow identical historical forcings ([6], Supplementary Information).” The divergence of the projections, despite identical forcings, clearly reveals a spread in model parameter values.
Figure 3. Figure 1 from England, et al. 2015. [6] Original Legend: Global average SAT anomalies relative to 1880–1900 in individual and multi-model mean CMIP5 simulations. Blue curves: RCP4.5 scenario; red curves: RCP8.5 scenario. The horizontal black lines at 2 C and 3 C and the vertical green line at 2060, are PF added.
The diagnosis follows directly from Figure 3: CMIP5 climate models are incapable of producing a unique solution to the problem of the climate energy state. They all suffer from internal parameter sets with wide uncertainty bands. The internal states of the models do not reveal anything about the underlying true physical state of the climate, past or future. None of the CMIP5 projections reported by England, et al., has any knowable physical meaning, no matter whether they track over the “hiatus” or not.
This brings us back around to the meaning of the huge uncertainty bars in the bottom panel of the 20th century hindcast in post Figure 1. These arise from the propagated CMIP5 model ±4 Wm-2 average cloud forcing error. [7, 8] Like parameter uncertainty, cloud forcing error also indicates that climate models cannot provide a unique solution to the problem of the climate energy state.
Uncertainty bars are an ignorance width. They indicate how much confidence a prediction merits. Parameter uncertainty means the correct parameter values are not known. Cloud forcing error means the thermal energy flux introduced by cloud feedback into the troposphere is not well-known. Models with internal systematic errors introduce that error into every single step of a climate simulation. The more simulation steps, the less is known about the correspondence between the simulated state and the physically true state.
The more simulation steps, the less knowledge, and the greater the ignorance about the model deviations from the physically true state. This is the message of the increasing width of the uncertainty envelope of propagated error.
Every single projection in England, et al.’s Figure 1 is subject to the ±4 Wm-2 CMIP5 average cloud forcing error. A proper display of their physical meaning should include an uncertainty envelope like that in post Figure 1, bottom. Moreover, the systematic error in the projections of individual models enters a multi-model average as the root-mean-square. [9] England, et al.’s multi-model mean projections — the dark red and blue lines — have even greater uncertainty than any of the individual projections. This is an irony that regularly escapes consensus climatologists.
So, when you see a figure such as Figure 4 top, below, supplied by the US National Academy of Sciences [10], realize that a presentation that fully conformed to scientific standards would look like Figure 4 bottom.
Figure 4. Top: Figure 4 from [10]; original legend: Model simulations of 20th century climate variations more closely match observed temperature when both natural and human influences are included. Black line shows observed temperatures. Bottom, the top left US NAS panel showing the global 20th century air temperature hindcast, but now with uncertainty bars from propagated ±4 Wm-2 CMIP5 average cloud forcing error.
It makes no sense at all to claim that an explanation of later 20th century warming is not possible without including “human influences,” when in fact an explanation of later 20th century warming is not possible, period.
Climate modelers choose parameter sets with offsetting errors in order to successfully hindcast the 20th century air temperature. [11] That means any correspondence between hindcast temperatures and observed temperatures is tendentious — the correspondence is deliberately built-in.
The previous post made the case that their own statements reveal that climate modelers are not trained as physical scientists. It showed that climate modeling itself is a liberal art in the manner of cultural studies, but elaborated with mathematics. In cultural studies, theory just intellectualizes the prejudices of the theorist. This post presents the other side of that coin: the lack of understanding that follows from the lack of professional training.
The fact that England, et al., can claim the “robust nature of twenty-first century warming projections” and ‘increased confidence‘ in IPCC projections, when their models are obviously incapable of resolving the climate energy state, merely shows that they can have no understanding whatever of the source of physical meaning. This is why they exhibit no recognition that their models projections have no physical meaning. Likewise the editors and reviewers of Nature Climate Change, the management of the US National Academy of Sciences, and the entire IPCC top to bottom.
The evidence shows that these people do not know how physical meaning emerges from physical theory. They do not know how to recognize physical meaning, how to present physical meaning, nor how to evaluate physical meaning.
In short, they understand neither prediction nor falsification; conjointly the very foundation of science.
Climate modelers are not scientists. They are not doing science. Their climate model projections have no physical meaning. Their climate model projections have never had any physical meaning.
To this date, there hasn’t been a single GHG emissions climate projection, ever, that had physical meaning. So, all those contentious debates about whether some model, some set of models, or some multi-model mean, tracks the global air temperature record, or not, are completely pointless. It doesn’t matter whether a physically meaningless projection happens to match some observable, or not. The projection is physically meaningless. It has no scientific content. The debate has no substantive content. The debaters may as well be contesting theology.
So, when someone says about AGW that, “The science is settled!,” one can truthfully respond that it is indeed settled: there is no science in AGW.
1. Frank, P., Negligence, Non-Science, and Consensus Climatology. Energy & Environment, 2015. 26(3): p. 391-416.
2. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, et al., Editors. 2007, Cambridge University: Cambridge.
3. Hansen, J., et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 1999. 104(D24): p. 30997–31022.
4. Rowlands, D.J., et al., Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geosci, 2012. 5(4): p. 256-260.
5. Collins, M., et al., Climate model errors, feedbacks and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles. Climate Dynamics, 2011. 36(9-10): p. 1737-1766.
6. England, M.H., J.B. Kajtar, and N. Maher, Robust warming projections despite the recent hiatus. Nature Clim. Change, 2015. 5(5): p. 394-396.
7. Lauer, A. and K. Hamilton, Simulating Clouds with Global Climate Models: A Comparison of CMIP5 Results with CMIP3 and Satellite Data. J. Climate, 2013. 26(11): p. 3823-3845.
8. Frank, P., Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections; Invited Poster, in American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. 2013: San Francisco, CA; Available from: http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Frank/propagation_of_error_poster_AGU2013.pdf (2.9 MB pdf).
9. Taylor, B.N. and C.E. Kuyatt., Guidelines for Evaluating and Expressing the Uncertainty of NIST Measurement Results. 1994, National Institute of Standards and Technology: Washington, DC. p. 20.
10. Staudt, A., N. Huddleston, and I. Kraucunas, Understanding and Responding to Climate Change 2008, The National Academy of Sciences USA: Washington, D.C.
11. Kiehl, J.T., Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 2007. 34(22): p. L22710.
Is NASA praying for a major U.S. Hurricane?
Why Skeptics Should Encourage Energy Use from Fossil Fuels Where Economically Justified
Peter Hannam, a reporter and no “scientist”, up to his usual alarmist claptrap at the SMH in Aus.. Not even halfway through the year, 2015 is on track to be the hotest eva!!! Really?
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/warm-seas-keep-planet-on-course-for-a-hot-2015-as-el-nino-builds-20150520-gh5h5h
Reply to Patrick
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/1934-had-worst-drought-of-last-thousand-years/#.VVzDTLvLjxx
No-one can comment on Hannam’s “editorial posts” at the SMH for some some time now. Reason? His posts can be easily be disproved in an instant. Hannam, care to disprove my claim? Open up your “editorials” to comments. Lets have some sort of debate! Oh wait…
Climate modelers are not scientists. They are not doing science.”
Oh, that is beautiful! Nearly brings a tear to my eye.
Another gem! Thanks for a very fine essay. These are getting posted on my office wall.
Jean Parisot
While the end products cannot be falsified, what about the intermediate predictions on wester vapor, tropical heat, CO2 transport time, etc.
Ernest Bush
Reply to Jean Parisot
It suffers from the same large range of predictions because there are two many guesses in the calculations.
ferd berple
Reply to Ernest Bush
even if the parameters were known exactly, and the science was absolutely correct, an infinite number of different predictions are possible due to computer round off errors.
Even a very simple linear programming model with only 3 parameters (x,y,z), such as you likely solved in high school math to calculate the intersection of a line and a plane, suffers from this problem. Likely the only reason you got the right answer in high school was because the test was contrived to be well behaved mathematically. And this is an extremely small and simple problem as compared to a climate model.
Round off errors accumulate in virtually all computerized numerical solutions and depending on the complexity of the problem these errors grow until the error overwhelms the result. All you can say is that the answer lies somewhere between the error bounds, but you most certainly cannot draw a line (average) half-way between the bounds and say “here is the correct answer” (unless of course you are climate science).
Mike in OzTas
MOre likely the model mesh is too coarse to properly ‘model’ the small scale but high significance events like tropical cells etc. This leads to convergence to a false solution.
An anlogy is imagine when you were a kid and you whip a wave down a length of rope. Imagine the rope is light plastic chain of the same weight per length as the rope and the wave is pretty much the same. Now imagine that the links are progressively longer. The ‘wave’ will progressively distort from its ‘true’ form becoming a clunky version which might exhibit some very strange behaviours even locking back on itself. That is the mesh size effect.
The problem is that as mesh size decreases to get a realistic modelling, the calculation time increases. increase a 2D mesh density and calc time goes up by 100.
People doing CFD studies have the same problem (which is how I found out about it)
Max Photon
What ferd berple said.
(Heck, ever try to model a real numbers as an infinite decimal?)
How could climate projections have any physical meaning. They are the output of a computer program, and one that doesn’t get all the physical universe parameters included in its considerations.
So no it is all fiction.
You have to model something that is physically real if you expect the model behavior to have any physical meaning. And that modeling can only (if done correctly) replicate the past.
Once you project it into the future it can only tell you how surprised you might be, one you get to the future and find out what really happened.
Given enough computer power you can make any model’s “mesh” as fine as you like; but that doesn’t do you any good.
It is the size of the physical mesh from which you obtain measured values to put into the model that determines how good it is.
The satellite based data gathering systems can at least scan most of the planet, to measure spatial samples, and temporal data as well.
The ground based sampling system is a joke, and creating a fictitious model of arbitrarily fine mesh size doesn’t improve the model’s accuracy. You are just interpolating between data values that are inadequately sampled anyhow.
Pat Frank
Good question, Jean. The physical parameter uncertainties are large enough that even the first step of a simulation has no predictive value. Parameter uncertainties are so wide that the incompleteness of the climate physical theory itself cannot be diagnosed from the predictive errors.
The major problem, as I see it, is that climate modeling has abandoned the reductionist program. The field is trying to model the entire climate in one shot, rather than building up by combining understandings of the physics of climate subsystems. But understanding climate physical subsystems requires that modelers collaborate intimately with empirical climate physicists like Richard Lindzen.
There needs to be a constructive back-and-forth between models and observational experiments on small climate phenomena, that are of a magnitude that can be modeled at a level tested by those observations. The field needs to learn to model small before it can model large.
But climate modelers have scorned the reductionist program, no matter that it’s been wildly successful. Adopting that program would mean subjecting their work to the gritty and ruthless accounting of real physics. My perception is that most modelers are trained as mathematicians and are Platonist in outlook. The purity of the ideal is all that matters.
“Hindcasts” are particularly unconvincing given the number of fudge factors that can be adjusted. With enough parameters to play with you can fit an elephant into a mini coup, but this does not mean that the model says anything relevant about reality.
DD More
Reply to rabbit
And what are they “hindcasting” to. The historical record has changed as much as the projections.
?w=640
Reply to DD More
The future is known. It’s the past that keeps changing.
The substantial and dynamic adjustments made to the temperature record is a crisis for climate science. Even if every adjustment is defensible, bias can creep in by not seeking with the same vigour those adjustments that might increase historic temperatures.
And the consensus error bars are completely unrealistic (870 MB pdf).
bobbyvalentine466921
Something that has always bugged me is how can a single physical experiment (ie our climate’s trajectory) give results to confirm an average of thousands of climate simulations?
Reply to bobbyvalentine466921
You’ve got the elements but better to invert your question, bobbyvalentine: how can the average of thousands of inaccurate simulations give any physical information about the climate trajectory?
Reply to Pat Frank
Indeed, but my point is that we have one experimental result. Like trying to confirm an interference pattern by sending a single electron through a double slit.
jinghis
Bobby, that is exactly how they confirm an interference pattern. It is always just one wave function.
Jinghis, to confirm an interference pattern with electrons, you need to use at least hundreds of electrons. A few won’t do.
Dr Norman Page
See Section 1 at
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2014/07/climate-forecasting-methods-and-cooling.html
for further discussion of the meaninglessness of climate model outputs for for forecasting purposes.
Here are some quotes.
“1.The Problems with the IPCC – GCM Forecasting method.
1.1 The Inherent Inutility of the Modeling Approach when Dealing with Complex Systems
The CAGW meme and by extension the climate and energy policies of most Western Governments are built on the outputs of climate models. In spite of the inability of weather models to forecast more than about 10 days ahead, the climate modelers have deluded themselves, their employers, the grant giving agencies, the politicians and the general public into believing that they could build climate models capable of accurately forecasting global temperatures for decades and centuries to come. Commenting on this reductionist approach, Harrison and Stainforth say in: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/eost2009EO13/pdf
“Reductionism argues that deterministic approaches to science and positivist views of causation are the appropriate methodologies for exploring complex, multivariate systems … where the behavior of a complex system can be deduced from the fundamental reductionist understanding. Rather, large, complex systems may be better understood, and perhaps only understood, in terms of observed, emergent behavior. The practical implication is that there exist system behaviors and structures that are not amenable to explanation or prediction by reductionist methodologies … the GCM is the numerical solution of a complex but purely deterministic set of nonlinear partial differential equations over a defined spatiotemporal grid, and no attempt is made to introduce any quantification of uncertainty into its construction … [T]he reductionist argument that large scale behavior can be represented by the aggregative effects of smaller scale process has never been validated in the context of natural environmental systems … An explosion of uncertainty arises when a climate change impact assessment aims to inform national and local adaptation decisions, because uncertainties accumulate from the various levels of the assessment. Climate impact assessments undertaken for the purposes of adaptation decisions(sometimes called end-to-end analyses)propagate these uncertainties and generate large uncertainty ranges in climate impacts. These studies also find that the impacts are highly conditional on assumptions made in the assessment, for example, with respect to weightings of global climate models(GCMs)—according to some criteria, such as performance against past observations—or to the combination of GCMs used .Future prospects for reducing these large uncertainties remain limited for several reasons. Computational restrictions have thus far restricted the uncertainty space explored in model simulations, so uncertainty in climate predictions may well increase even as computational power increases. … The search for objective constraints with which to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions has proven elusive. The problem of equifinality (sometimes also called the problem of “model identifiability”) – that different model structures and different parameter sets of a model can produce similar observed behavior of the system under study – has rarely been addressed.”
1.2 The impossibility of computing valid outcomes for GCMs
The modelling approach is also inherently of no value for predicting future temperature with any calculable certainty because of the difficulty of specifying the initial conditions of a sufficiently fine grained spatio-temporal grid of a large number of variables with sufficient precision prior to multiple iterations. For a complete discussion of this see Essex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvhipLNeda4
Models are often tuned by running them backwards against several decades of observation, this is
much too short a period to correlate outputs with observation when the controlling natural quasi-periodicities of most interest are in the centennial and especially in the key millennial range. Tuning to these longer periodicities is beyond any computing capacity when using reductionist models with a large number of variables unless these long wave natural periodicities are somehow built into the model structure
In summary the temperature projections of the IPCC – Met office models and all the impact studies which derive from them have no solid foundation in empirical science being derived from inherently useless and specifically structurally flawed models. They provide no basis for the discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money. As a foundation for Governmental climate and energy policy their forecasts are already seen to be grossly in error and are therefore worse than useless. A new forecasting paradigm needs to be adopted.”
Sections 2 and 3 at the same link provide estimates of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based on the natural 60 and 1000 year periodicities in the temperature data and using the 10be and neutron count data as the most useful proxy for solar activity.
Walt D.
Reply to Dr Norman Page
I like your analysis. One thing we can do is to calculate the positions of all the planets and the sun (relative to the barycenter of the solar systems. From this we can predict 1000 year and 60 year cycles. These cycles correctly predict major changes in the climate in the past. They even predict the “pause’ that is currently occurring). The theory also makes predictions that can be falsified.
With regards to climate models, we have to look at the feasibility of using computational fluid dynamics to produce predictions that actually model reality. Without going into the theory of turbulence and Navier-Stokes partial differential equations, we can ask the question “Why do Boeing and Airbus Industries have wind tunnels to test airflow over wings and other parts of their planes? Why not use a computer model?”.
And when all is said and done we do not even know how human CO2 emissions contribute to the total CO2 in the atmosphere.
I tend to disagree with Harrison’s and Stainforth’s rejection of the reductionist program, Norman. Their assessment implicitly assumes no possible fundamental advances in computing and modeling of complex systems, ever. It’ll always be done using the methods we know today, maybe just bigger nd more. Can anyone really say that the difference between computation now and in 2100, or 2300, will just be in the size, power, or parallelism of the computer architecture we know today?
I think the reductionist approach is the only viable approach. Growth in knowledge of the physical system, over decades, will almost certainly be accompanied by advances in ways to compute, e.g., perhaps advanced heuristic computers employing some form of three-valued logic to account for deterministic chaos. Or maybe something else.
The reductionist program must have a long-range view. It proceeds step-wise, and every forward step is small, fraught, and hard-earned. That means an ability to truly model the complete climate might be a century away. Or two. It seems to me that modelers today are naive and impatient with partial results (all we ever really get in physical science). They’ve abandoned the reductionist program and describe their work in the language of universal significance. It paints wonderful pictures for the naive, but is very premature and scientifically vacant. This basic mistake, to me, is yet one more evidence that climate modelers are not scientists.
Jon Lonergan
Reductionism sure but only because it’s all we’ve [reliably] got. Perhaps one day we will be able to predict emergent systems? A computer advance presumably.
Pat and Jon. We may speculate about future possibilities but for the present, certainly, the reductionist approach is useless. I disagree strongly with Jon’s thinking that that is all we reliably have. Quasi- repetitive patterns are clearly present in the changing temperature data which we use as the symbol of climate change, You can think of these emergent patterns as the product of the real world as a virtual computer if that makes the numerical and digitally minded more comfortable. Similar patterns are seen e.g. in the solar data ,the ocean data (PDO AMO etc) and as you well know in the planetary orbits and the Milankovic cycles,. The human brain is at this time superior to computers in seeing these patterns . Think about it – computers cannot produce ( see )patterns unless they have been fed the input data and algorithms on which they run . Computer outputs at the core are always tautologous ie circular in the sense that they depend upon what was fed into them by human programmers.
I think that if we stand back and view the climate data with the right time scale perspective and have a wide knowledge of the relevant data time series so that we can judge its reliability, that patterns are clearly obvious ,that their period and amplitude ranges can be reasonably estimated and projected forward and that the relationships between the driver and temperature data may be reasonably well inferred without being necessarily precisely calculated..
The biggest mistake of the establishment was to ignore the longer term cycles and to project forward several decades of data linearly when we are obviously approaching, at or just past a peak in a millennial cycle. This is more than scientific inadequacy – it is a lack of basic common sense. The modelers approach is analogous to looking at a pointillist painting from 6 inches – they simply can’t see the wood for the trees or
the pattern for the dots. ( In a recent paper Mann has finally after much manipulation managed to discover the 60 +/- year cycle which any schoolboy can see by looking at Fig 15 at
even Popper knew this wasn’t the case.
Even Feynman knew
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/physics/solar-neutrinos.html
“Well, right from the beginning it was apparent that Ray was measuring fewer neutrinos events than I had predicted. He came to Caltech in early 1968 to spend a week with me while he and I wrote our papers up describing for me a refined calculation, for him the first measurement of the rate in his tank. It was clear that the rate that he was getting was a factor of three smaller than I was predicting, and that was a very serious problem.
There was a famous meeting at Caltech, just a few physicists—Dick Feynman, Murray Gell-Mann, Willie Fowler, Bob Christie, and a couple of others—in a small meeting room, where Ray presented his results and I presented my calculations of what he should have measured. There was some discussion of it afterwards, and it was pretty inconclusive. There was a discrepancy; it looked like one of us was wrong.
“I was very visibly depressed, I guess, and Dick Feynman asked me after the meeting if I would like to go for a walk. We just went for a walk, and he talked to me about inconsequential things, personal things, which was very unusual for him, to spend his time in quite idle conversation; it never happened to me in the many years that I knew him that he did that before or afterwards. And only toward the end of the walk, which lasted over an hour, he told me, “Look, I saw that after this talk you were depressed, and I just wanted to tell you that I don’t think you have any reason to be depressed. We’ve heard what you did, and nobody’s found anything wrong with your calculations. I don’t know why Davis’s result doesn’t agree with your calculations, but you shouldn’t be discouraged, because maybe you’ve done something important, we don’t know. I don’t know what the explanation is, but you shouldn’t feel discouraged.””
But there were plenty of scientists who did think there was something wrong with your model of the sun.
Well, initially very few people paid any attention to this discrepancy, but the discrepancy persisted. … And every year for 30 years I had to look at different processes that people would imaginatively suggest that might play a role in the sun, and it didn’t matter how convinced I was that they were wrong. I had to demonstrate scientifically that these processes were not important in order to convince people [that] yes, the expectation from the sun was robust and therefore you should take the discrepancy seriously. It took I would guess three and a half decades before I convinced everybody.
there was a model of the sun.
the observations disagreed with the model.
What did feynman conclude? Did he say the theory is wrong or falsified?
He said “we just dont know”
When Theory and its predictions conflict with observations, we just don’t know.
A) The whole theory could be wrong
B) Some part of the theory may be wrong.
C) The theory may be incomplete
D) The observations can be wrong.
E) some combination.
The Myth is that science does critical experiments and then throws theories out. Not.
For 30 years the discrepency between theory and observation was largely ignored.
In other words if you actually observe what scientists DO, if you take a scientific approach to the question of what science is, you find out that the path to understanding isnt anything like simple falsification. In other words, the theory that science operates by falsification, is, well, falsified..
Falsification (testability) isn’t a ‘theory’, it is part of the Scientific Method.
If you have a closed system and are able to create an experiment where you hold every parameter constant apart from the one of interest then you can probably say that your theory is falsifiable. Climate, like all science outside of perhaps basic chemistry and physics, operates in an open system where you can never prevent changes in other parameters.
Even if you get the results you expect you can’t say your theory is right because the results may be caused by something you’re unaware of (clouds? neutrinos?). And if you don’t get the results you expect other people can’t necessarily say your theory is wrong because the expected results may be being prevented by something they’re unaware of.
Hence the hiatus doesn’t disprove AGW but there’s probably nothing that can prove it either. The important thing therefore is to seek understanding of underlying mechanisms and if necessary to humbly indicate possible outcomes all things being equal (which they never are) based on that understanding.
As per Critical Realism, Bhaskar.
Evolutionary biology requires a heritable trait and would have been falsified had none been found. Geology requires temporal stratigraphic sequence, and would have been falsified had none been found. Even History requires an ordered time-sequence of events, and would be falsified were none found.
Absent the central hypotheses, falsification is an intimate and immediate threat.
Disciplines that rely on physical reality have such central hypotheses; even analytically historical disciplines. They can at least aspire to the status of science. So your exclusion of everything except physics and chemistry is badly overstated, Peter.
sturgishooper
I wish that Steven would quit trying to practice the history and philosophy of science without a license. Of course amateurs can and do make contributions in fields outside their expertise, but only if they are disinterested in supporting a failed hypothesis, ie actually interested in discovering the truth.
Feynman is this instance did not consider the model of the sun conclusively falsified because there were legitimate questions about the observational method. Only when the results were repeatedly confirmed was the model considered falsified.
Steven and Orestes should stop trying to spread the corruption of “climate science” to the rot of the entire scientific enterprise, in support not only of a failed hypothesis but anti-human ideology, which has already cost at least hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions in treasure.
Reply to sturgishooper
If you going to get into philosophy of science with climate models, you may as well invoke Occam’s Razor and go with Monckton’s pocket calculator model that only contains 8 parameters and outperforms all of the more complicated climate models.
sturgishooper,
You miss the point of Mosher’s excellent comment. The model predicted 3 times as many neutrinos as were observed. That means that the model was basically correct. So were the measurements.
I’d be happy if he stopped flattering himself with the title “engineer” without a license. He could sit for the P.E. exam, but…
Poptech
It is worse than that, he is flattering himself with the title “scientist” from a liberal arts education.
http://www.populartechnology.net/2014/06/who-is-steven-mosher.html
David L. Hagen
“Falsifiability” depends on the number of variables and the uncertainty (“accuracy”) of the data and the confidence of the results. e.g.
Ch 2 Origin of the Scientific Method
The origin of modern scientific method occurred in Europe in
the 1600s: involving (1) a chain of research events from Copernicus to Newton,
which resulted (2) in the gravitational model of the solar system, and (3) the theory
of Newtonian physics to express the model. . . .
Science began in that intellectual conjunction of the research of six particular
individuals: Copernicus, Brahe, Kepler, Galileo, Descartes, Newton. Why this
particular set of people and their work? For the first time in history, all the component
ideas of scientific method came together and operated fully as empirically
grounded theory:
1. A scientific model that could be verified by observation (Copernicus)
2. Precise instrumental observations to verify the model (Brahe)
3. Theoretical analysis of experimental data (Kepler)
4. Scientific laws generalized from experiment (Galileo)
5. Mathematics to quantitatively express theoretical ideas (Descartes and Newton)
6. Theoretical derivation of an experimentally verifiable model (Newton)
Comparing models against experiments has been used to show some models are better than others. aka. invalidating the older models. e.g., heliocentric vs geocentric. Keppler’s elliptical orbits replacing circular orbits and and epicycles. PS Keppler was expecting to prove a geocentric model. Tacho Brahe’s very accurate data persuaded Kepler that the geocentric model did not match, nor did the epicyclic or circular heliocentric models compared to the elliptical. So we now talk about those other models falsified compared to Keppler’s elliptical orbits.
e.g. See Fowler on Keppler and on Newton
Similarly see the recent discovery of the Higgs Boson announced with the data reached five sigma and then six sigma significance.
With Global Climate Models I understood there to be more than 100 parameters. Thus we have many parameters with little data to validate/differentiate them and very large uncertainties as shown in this post above. From the above post, it appears we are not yet at 2 sigma, and probably not at the 1 sigma level. e.g.,
1) What confidence do we have that climate will warm or cool for the next thirty years?
2) What portion of that warming or cooling will be anthropogenic?
Reply to David L. Hagen
Steven lacks the basic knowledge of the scientific method and of the history and philosophy of science required to comment intelligently on these subjects.
sturgis, what else would you expect from a liberal arts major?
Funny that your history of science and giant scientists has not a word about electricity.
george e. smith Nor does it address Roger Bacon on the scientific method.
Major discoveries in electricity came later. Note also Einstein’s Razor.
PS For recent post normal impacts on policy see Alan Carlin Environmentalists Gone Mad
Jquip
The consequences here:
A) The theory is wrong
B) The theory is wrong
C) The theory is wrong
D) The theory of the *instrument* is wrong
E) Some or all of the above
It’s worth noting here that the observations are *never* wrong — they simply are. However, our understanding of just what the instrument is telling us may be. Now, I’ll grant you that the theory in question here is not wrong if you’ll grant that the only possibility is that the theory behind the vast bulk of instruments is wrong.
But if you grant that, then we’ve no manner to test Climate Theories at all. And so it’s a cute novelty in the same boat as all the other currently untestable theories. Entertaining, but meaningless. And our funding should be going towards the instruments themselves, and not the rampant, untestable speculations.
But if the theory underlying enough of the instruments is right? Then the theory is simply wrong and we’ve got more work to do before pronouncing ourselves competent of any proper understanding of the system.
richardscourtney
Reply to Jquip
But if you grant that, then we’ve no manner to test Climate Theories at all. And so it’s a cute novelty in the same boat as all the other currently untestable theories. Entertaining, but meaningless.
Yes, and I think the following anecdote is pertinent.
In 2000 there were 15 scientists invited from around the world to give a briefing at the US Congress, Washington DC. The briefing consisted of three panels that each provided a briefing Session. In each Session each member of the panel gave a presentation and then questions were invited from the audience.
Fred Singer chaired Session 1 that was about climate data.
I chaired Session2 that was about climate models.
David Wojick chaired Session 3 that was about political responses.
When I opened Session 2 to questions the first questioner asked in aggressive manner,
“ The first session said we can’t trust the climate data and this session said we can’t trust the climate models: where do we go from here ”.
Gerd Rainer- Weber started to stand to provide a detailed answer but, as Chairman, I signalled him to sit and I said,
“ Sir, the climate data are right or they are not.
If the climate data are right then the climate models don’t adequately emulate past climate.
If the climate data are not right then we cannot assess the climate models.
In either case, we cannot use the models to predict future climate.
So, I agree your question, Sir. Where do we go from here? ”
The questioner studied his shoes and Gerd indicated he was satisfied the answer needed no addition, so I took the next question .
Jquip, there’s also the possibility that the theory isn’t so much wrong, as incomplete.
For an example, there are Newton’s laws of motion, which worked well for hundreds of years but broke down for really small or really fast objects. (None of which were observable in Newton’s time.)
Einstein’s equations fixed these problems, but they still resolve to Newton’s equations when you solve for large objects travelling well short of the speed of light.
For anyone who has not read this 1950’s dissertation by Prof. Irving Langmuir, it is heartily recommended.
When reading about “N-Rays”, “Mitogenetic rays”, the “Allison effect”, and other unproven phenomena, keep in the back of your mind the “dangerous man-made global warming” conjecture. You will find many similarities.
I have an open mind: AGW may well exist. There is certainly support for it, in radiative physics. But as I keep pointing out, there are no verifiable, testable measurements quantifying MMGW. Thus, it is not much different from the putative “N-Rays” or any of the other phenomena that Langmuir discusses.
Langmuir describes these nebulous effects as:
Symptoms of Pathological Science
• The maximum effect that is observed is produced by a causative agent of barely detectable intensity, and the magnitude of the effect is substantially independent of the intensity of the cause.
• The effect is of a magnitude that remains close to the limit of detectability; or, many measurements are necessary because of the very low statistical significance of the results.
• Claims of great accuracy.
• Fantastic theories contrary to experience.
• Criticisms are met by ad hoc excuses thought up on the spur of the moment.
• Ratio of supporters to critics rises up to somewhere near 50% and then falls gradually to oblivion.
Apply the definitions to human CO2 emissions, and their claiumed effect on global temperature. Does Langmuir’s Pathological Science not describe the “dangerous man-made global warming” conjecture? Is “dangerous MMGW” any different from his other examples?
rogerknights
I don’t think Langmuir (sp?) was a professor, at least not at the time. He was head of research at GE.
VikingExplorer
>> It’s worth noting here that the observations are *never* wrong
Observations can be wrong in several ways. The easiest way is to measure the wrong thing, because we misunderstand the system.
But Richard, the models are all we have! So we have to use them!
(I would be rich if I had a dollar for every time I have read one of those statements)
vukcevic
Thanks for the link, Great story !
Sun – Earth relationship is not a ‘goldilocks’ forever.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SEC.gif
Reply to vukcevic
Vuk, have you seen the Compass Rose…… It is a graphic creation which provides a visual record of all the ‘Balloons’ that have occurred in the track of the PCM (Planetary Centre of Mass)
A full ‘prime’ balloon is produced, when the track of the PCM, which is moving around the Ecliptic Plane at a distance that is beyond the orbit of Jupiter, suddenly decides to dive in towards the Sun, which it reaches in less than 5 years. It then swings around the Solar System Centre of Mass (SSCM) and, of course, the Sun, and then goes back out again, to almost the same position on the Ecliptic Plane, that it started from, in another 5 years! The last time that this happened was back in 1985 -1995, No.51 on the Compass Rose.
http://solarchords.com/solar-chord-science/balloons-and-the-compass-rose/
Matches your spikes well.
Stephen Richards
Steven M
Your a clown and not a very funny one. Your not even trained as a scientist. You deliberately divert the arguments by sceptics right across the web, even at Steve Mc’s site. I respected you a few years back but since teaming up with that other clown Zeke Hausfather, well you lost me.
Reply to Stephen Richards
“Your a clown” It’s “you’re”
That common grammatical mistake when insulting someone negates your point.
Janice Moore
@ Paul re: “your” and “you’re”
YOU are a clown, lol. As IF a scrivener’s error negates the substance of what was said.
btw: you left off a “.” Your point was not negated by that mistake; I just thought you’d like to know.
Sorry Janice, it wasn’t meant to be derogatory. I saw that it was used twice, sometimes that’s how I learn.
I often see “your an idiot”. That very well may be, but the lack of contraction in that usage really does deflate the insult, no? And I agree, missing or improper punctuation can often change the meaning of a sentence. YMMV.
And I apologize for mis-reading your “tone” (my “how-dare-you-talk-like-that-to-that-kindhearted-Stephen Richards” emotions colored my perceptions). You do make a good point.
What does “YMMV” mean?
Thank you for taking the time to clarify. I’ll try to be more gracious (lololol)…. “try”… .
Thanks Janice, no apology needed. For other reasons I was a bit irritable at the time, it might have biased my “tone” toward your kindhearted Stephen Richards.
YMMV is urban for “Your mileage may vary”, in reference to punctuation changing the meaning of a sentence “.”
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ymmv
Oh! lol, thanks, Paul (smile).
So! “Buy our GCM-mobile. It runs great!” (YMMV)
Or “Up to 4.0C of warming”
YrealityMV
The name Stephan Richards suggests of French origin? Your are mileage may vary.
Stephen Grrrr…
joelobryan
I enjoy SM coming here to post comments. AW has hammered and warned him enough to stop (mostly) with the the 1 word drive-bys. So hi comments now, like the one above are robust enough to generate a consideration of his critical thought(s). That IS one aspect of what correct science is supposed to be, challenge self biases and one’s own conclusions/interpretation.
So please, Steve M comment as you feel needed.
And please everyone stop with the “yeah but you’re not a PE or PhD. …. please. Intelligent, well framed arguments can and do come from those outside established fields of study.
You missed the point. The discrepancy between theory and observation means that you may have discovered something important.
Jaye Bass
Feynman on the Scientific Method
Of course, part of your theory could be wrong but that means as stated the theory is incorrect and has to be adjusted. Theories can only be mostly correct any way, can’t be proven…only disproven. Most here know that.
Mosher is just doing drive-bys. Must be getting paid to post.
A better summation would have been that you can’t falsify a model with uncertain data, which is the case in the example you give.
However this is not the case with climate science. We have pretty good handle on temperatures in the satellite era, and the error bars for the various proxies are small enough that the data from them is useful.
Chip Javert
Oh yea. I’d say we all agree we have a “pretty good handle on temperatures in the satellite era”.
This probably explains the unexplained data revisions.
The revisions to the satellite data have all been explained.
He said ‘we just dont know'”
Steven M0sher
at 9:50am today
Which one is correct?
No one knows.”
The point, O One of Slippery Tongue, on which Richard Feynman and Pat Frank agree, is whether or not a theory or hypothesis CAN be falsified.
Your money-making CO2 conjecture, Mr. M0sher, CAN-not be falsified. Thus, to claim it is physically meaningful is nonsense.
Oh. By — the — way, Mr. M0sher… what happened to Part III of the Climategate E mails? You told us about 2 years ago that you were working in that…
Reply to Janice Moore
Janice:
If observations do not support the theory, the the theory is FALSE. This is definitional. It has nothing to do with Karl Popper’s Demarcation Criterion as to what constitutes a scientific theory.
Scientific models were falsified by experimentation long before Karl Popper came along.(Google the Michelson Morley experiment).
Also that there are many theories in mainstream modern physics that do not fall into Poppers Falsification Criterion – String Theory, for example.
Hi, Walt D.,
And the conjecture about CO2 emissions does not even rise to the level of a disprovable/falsifiable theory. It is, in short: junk!
ozric101
Popper said also that a theory might be the best we have, tested and verified many times, but that does not make it truth. A theory can never be taken as truth.
SkepticGoneWild
I don’t agree with the author’s use of falsifiability. The best definition I found:
“It is the principle that in hypothesis testing, a proposition or theory cannot be considered scientific if it does not admit the possibility of being shown to be false. Falsifiable does not mean false. For a proposition to be falsifiable, it must – at least in principle – be possible to make an observation that would show the proposition to be false, even if that observation has not actually been made.”[Psychology Wiki]
So for example, as far as IPCC climate model predictions to the year 2100 are concerned, they are theoretically falsifiable, but not practically in our lifetime. So I do not consider them meet the criteria of being a valid scientific hypothesis. They are meaningless. Not falsifiable.
Reply to SkepticGoneWild
(heavy sigh)….meet = meeting
The uncertainty envelope shows that the year 2100 temperature projection is meaningless, which is exactly what is stated in my post. E.g. “Figure 1 in the previous post showed that the huge uncertainty limits in projections of future global air temperatures make them predictively useless. In other words, they have no physical meaning. ”
The falsifiable definition you quoted, SGW, is given as just the criterion establishing the scientific theory-status of an analytical proposition.
Sorry, but I dispute your argument.
“Theoretically falsifiable” is often sufficient.
For example, when Halley proposed the hypothesis that comets are orbiting the Sun he predicted that a comet (which is now given his name) would return ~75 years later. A comet did appear when he had predicted. If a comet had not appeared when Halley had predicted then that would have been evidence to falsify Halley’s hypothesis at least in the form he specified it. Please note the specific nature of Halley’s prediction: he stated the specific year when ‘his’ comet would return.
Which is not to say the climate model predictions are falsifiable: they are NOT falsifiable because they encompass such a large range of predictions that it is not possible to determine which predictions if any are right so it cannot be known which predictions are wrong. (This is equivalent to Halley having said his comet would return at some time between 50 and 500 years in the future: some comet(s) would appear in that time.)
paullinsay
In a sense, the theory was wrong. It didn’t include the now known fact that neutinos have a tiny mass allowing electron neutrinos that are formed in solar fusion to transform into muon neutrinos which could not be detected by Davis’ experimental apparatus. Very early on there were two schools of thought, the model was wrong, or neutrinos had mass. It took a long time to do the experiments to measure the neutrino mass that cleared up the discrepancy.
In this case a conflict between the well understood nuclear physics that drives the sun and a very careful experiment led to new understanding about nature. There are other cases like this, for example the orbit of Mercury is slightly different from what is predicted by Newtonian mechanics. With the advent of Einstein’s General Relativity the discrepancy was precisely explained.
In both these cases, an extremely well understood and thoroughly tested theory was in conflict with very careful measurements. Nothing of the kind exists in “Climate Science.” The data prior to the satellite era is mediocre to bad and very sparse. Even now there are only a few years of data from the satellites and the oceans are barely sampled even with the Argo floats. There are phenomena like ENSO that have a very large effect on the climate that can’t be predicted in either their timing, duration, or magnitude. Clouds are a huge problem and are only included via parameterizations, aka, hand waving. Yet somehow the models, if we take enough of them and do averaging of some sort, are capable of predicting the effect of CO2 on the climate many years into the future. Really?
There is also a fundamental problem at the mathematical level that the climate models cannot circumvent. They acknowledge that the models are nonlinear dynamical systems and exhibit chaos, sensitive dependence on initial conditions that make long term prediction impossible. If I take two initial states with slightly different temperatures the time series will agree for a short while but after a long time will look completely different and be completely uncorrelated. In a simple enough system, the averages, such as average high and low, will be the same despite the fact that the time series don’t look anything alike. This is what the modelers hope for. They can then turn the CO2 knob and see what it does to the averages at long times.
The problem is that all but the simplest dynamical systems are much more complex. Different initial conditions will lead to different climates entirely. Depending on which one you choose an initial condition might lead to the climate of Europe, Jurrasic Park, or an Ice Age. Worse yet, they are not neatly separated but all jumbled together so tightly that there is no way of knowing what you’re going to get. They lie on a fractal. Suppose that you mark the initial conditions that lead to different climates by red for Europe, green for Jurrasic Park, and blue for Ice Age and now draw a little circle around some starting points. Alll three colors would be there. The climate averages you would get from different red dots would give the climate of Europe even though the time series would be different, just as in the case of a simple model. The same would be true for green and blue dots.
Here’s where it gets interesting. Pick one red dot and magnify the area around it. It will contain red, green, and blue dots. Pick a red dot in the magnified area and magnify again. More red, green, and blue dots. Repeat. No matter how high the magnification, you will always see all three colors. The initial condtions leading to Europe, Jurrasic Park, or Ice Age lie on a fractal and can’t be separated. All you can do is pick one starting point and hope.
To summarize, not only can’t you predict the future, you can’t even predict which future you’ll get. And averaging the climate of Europe with that of Jurrasic Park and an Ice Age is meaningless nonsense.
Keitho
Reply to paullinsay
Hi Paul, has there ever been runs done on various climate models that use the parameters from say 1900 to compare them with where we are now?
If you look through physics and chemistry, there are many examples of theories that have been overthrown by experimental observations.
1) The corpuscular theory of light – (light travelling faster in a transparent fluid or solid than in vacuo).
2) Phlogiston theory – (Lavoisier’s experiment).
3) The classical interpretation of the photoelectric effect.
4) The aether – (Michelson- Morley experiment).
5) CP conservation – (Wu experiment).
6) Gamma Ray Bursts – (only possible from inside the Milky Way – but then observed from distant galaxies)
7) Ultimate Contraction of the Universe -(distant galaxies were observed to be moving away faster).
8) Anthropogenic Global Warming – (no increase in temperature over the last two decades despite a monotonic increase in CO2).
David in Texas
Analysis of your argument would suggest that you have a special meaning of the word ‘wrong’.
Whether the answer is A), B), C), D) or E), it is wrong! You can redefine ‘wrong’, if you wish, but a rose by any other name…
And yes, Richard Feynman would use the word ‘wrong’. He said, “If it disagrees with experiment [here observation], it is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science…” (see here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OL6-x0modwY The video is only one minute long.)
We may not know why it is wrong, but it is still WRONG. Not knowing why it is wrong doesn’t make any less wrong.
BTW, you may wish to add a F) to your list… ‘the model was inconsistent with the hypothesis’. In that way, you could claim the hypothesis wasn’t falsified, just the hypothesis-model combination.
Will Nitschke
I have to concede I held Steven Mosher’s rather juvenile relativist view of science for nearly 25 years, but after contemplating these matters over that period, I eventually grew out of it. Falsifiability, like occam’s razor, are meta-rules. They are useful but not infallible. They are not 100% guaranteed to work all the time. They are subject to interpretation. What constitutes simplest? What constitutes a falsification for a theory (rather than merely an experiment) ? In reality, working scientists use these rules and principles but they are not infallible. Because Mosher can point to a few rare exceptions, where the rules failed, this doesn’t (a) mean that you can simply ignore the meta rules when it suites you and (b) that they in any way invalidate the importance of the meta rules within their understood limits.
Falsifiability should continue to be used by working scientists. It’s not something to be ignored as Mosher implies. The problem with people like Mosher is that it’s rather grating to be lectured by people who don’t really understand what they wish to lecture. Climate science is a mess and more of a junk science than a science now, exactly because of views held by people like Mosher.
Reply to Will Nitschke
Mosher has long ago decided his position on AGW which is more alarmist than lukewarm and has been for the last few years using drive-by comments to poison the well of every discussion here that he feels threatens his belief. People waste their time with him because they do not realize they are arguing with someone who has a degree in English. I became aware of this lack of a scientific and technical education early on after he made some incoherent technical comments but apparently many here still do not know his liberal arts / marketing background. There are so many highly intelligent people to engage in discussions with on this topic I do not know why people waste their time with someone who does not even have a rudimentary education in the subject.
Mosher’s opinions don’t interest me but he did try to explain a certain point of view about science that I’ve always found interesting. It’s a very popular view point among non-scientists and also now some scientists. (I recall Gavin Schmidt holds similar ideas and is a believer in the philosopher Feyerabend, who made this point of view somewhat fashionable in academia.) It took me a long time to reject Feyerabend as many of his claims are rather seductive. The problem was that Feyerabend’s view of science is largely inconsistent with how science is actually practiced by actual practitioners making useful discoveries.
Everyone bookmark this post for anytime Mosher attempts to use his liberal arts education to criticize a skeptic theory and hold him accountable. He has just argued that he is the biggest hypocrite to ever post here.
Reply to Poptech
+1, Yes Mosher is very critical of competing theories using the same justification he now condemns.
From “The Unended Quest,” Karl Popper’s autobiography (p. 38 pbk): after discussing a conversation he’d had with the “brilliant young student of mathematics” Max Elstein about Einstein’s theory of relativity Popper wrote, “But what impressed me most was Einstein’s clear clear statement that he would regard his theory as untenable if it should fail in certain tests. Thus he wrote, for example, “If the redshift of spectral lines due to the gravitational potential should not exist, then the general theory of relativity will be untenable.”
“Here was an attitude utterly different from the dogmatic attitude of Marx, Freud, Adler, and even more so that of their followers. Einstein was looking for crucial experiments whose agreement with his predictions would by no means establish his theory; while a disagreement, as he was the fitst to stress, would show his theory to be untenable.
“This, I felt, was the true scientific attitude. … Thus I arrived by the end of 1919,at the conclusion that the scientific attitude was the crucial attitude which did not look for verification but for crucial tests; tests which could refute the theory tested, though they could never establish it.”
That is about as clear a statement as could be imagined. A critically central issue is that the falsifiability idea came from Einstein. It is not an assumption of or a deduction from Popper’s philosophy of science. Popper’s view came from Einstein’s working-scientist empiricist approach to physical theory.
So, you’re wrong about Popper and you’re wrong about science, Steve.
Two places in my post, stressed with bolding that climate projections are meaningless at the level of resolution of greenhouse forcing. That is the central message. Nothing you’ve written contests that conclusion.
Feynman is not here to provide the meaning of his comment about not being able to explain the disagreement between theory and result. However, your generalization of his comment as the foundational methodology of all of science is completely misguided.
You wrote: “The Myth is that science does critical experiments and then throws theories out. Not.” I’ve done exactly that four times in my own work. No falsifications of earth-shaking news-worthy large scale physical theories, but of at-the-time guiding theories for the behavior of certain systems within Inorganic Biochemistry. Nevertheless, critical experiments –> falsification of theory.
As an addendum – that scientific attitude is a result of the public nature of science. If a scientist didn’t have to worry about others trying to disprove the claim, s/he wouldn’t be so concerned with falsification [no one to falsify it]. What’s crucial about the current situation is that, academically, people are NOT allowed to falsify AGW claims. So AGW ipso facto is not science.
“critical experiments –> falsification of theory” puts it well, critical experiments= falsification of theory not so.
TimTheToolMan
Mosher writes ““Falsifiable because if the prediction is wrong, the physical theory is refuted.”
Way to go on completely misrepresenting that statement. You see, “prediction is wrong” implies “[measurements show the] prediction is wrong” and in turn there is room for the measurements being wrong. That is why Feynman wasn’t quick to throw out the theory because he knew there were still viable alternative explanations.
Misrepresenting Feynman’s meaning to suit your own argument is poor form, Steve.
Paul Mackey
@Mosher
It is also quite clear that the discrepancy was taken very seriously, debated in a respectful and useful way, and changes to the theory were being proposed and tested to explain and remove the discrepancy. Presumably the experimental data were being examined in the same manner.
In short the discrepancy was being used to further scientific knowledge. That is the correct way forward. Were extra laws, taxation and the dismantling of the current economic system being based on this theory? No.
Unfortunately, Mr Mosher ( or is it Dr? Apologies if I use the wrong title), today a theory with obvious, long term and growing discrepancies with reality are being used to completely alter the fabric of society. That is the point you miss. I do think there is a glimmer of doubt appearing and climate scientists are starting to look seriously at the discrepancy.between their forecasts ( not allowed to call them predictions according to the IPCC ) and reality. Only when this is recognized will the science progress by working on theory and data to explain the discrepancy.
But meantime, lose the arrogance of certainty and stop trying to change the world based on a currently failing theory.
ticketstopper
I don’t disagree – but the above sun model wasn’t the basis for world-spanning economic disruption.
Had it been, I’m sure the spotlight would have been much more intense.
Deep thanks to Anthony, a champion of free speech, for publishing my essay.
..and thank you too
Well done Pat and Ant.
Thank-you gentlemen. 🙂
Wester is usually spelled water
stewart pid
Water can become wetter and wetter until it ultimately is saturated or wester 😉
Is there an easy source for the “CMIP5 average ±4 Wm-2 systematic cloud forcing error”. Not questioning the number, just hoping to use it elsewhere and unsure how to reference. Thanks for an interesting read.
Reply to MJB
The ±4 Wm^-2 cloud forcing error is in Lauer and Hamilton, post reference 7, MJB.
Essentially, it’s the average cloud forcing error made by CMIP5-level GCMs, when they were used to hindcast 20 years of satellite observations of global cloud cover (1985-2005).
The differences between observed and CMIP5 GCM hindcast global cloud cover were published in Jiang JH, et al. 2012. Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate models using NASA “A-Train” satellite observations. J. Geophys. Res. 117(D14): D14105, doi:10.1029/2011jd017237.
Kevin Kilty
I am going to flesh-out a brief comment I made regarding this topic some years ago. I will start with a question. Do the control limits in statistical process control have meaning? The answer is, yes, as long as one understands the process one is monitoring and as long as that process remains under control. The analogy to climate models and the climate system should be apparent, but let me elaborate. Climate models represent an understanding of the process or they do not. Let us assume that they fully explain the climate system for a moment. The projections of various climate models then, particularly the 95% limits, represent a reasonable set of control limits for the combination of underlying physical process, the climate system, and also for for whether the system is operating according to the hypothesis of being under control–i.e. operating according to expectations.
The observation that actual climate measurements are wandering across the control region and have crossed the lower 95% limit can mean only one of two things in manufacturing. First, that the process is no longer under control; that is, that some parameter of the process is no longer operating according to target value. Second, it is possible that our control limits were wrongly set in the first place because we did not understand the climate process or our models do not capture its characteristics. Either way, this observation is not good for those who think they understand the climate system fully, and believe they can monitor it fully.
There is always the possibility that measurements are not really capturing the state of the climate system faithfully–i.e. that there is a bias in the measurements, and then one has to argue about whether this indicates a problem with models or system behavior. But once again it spells trouble for the CAWG community. By the way, I think that Dr. Christie’s observations regarding the atmosphere as a whole though balloon or satellites, which he presented in a hearing some month or two ago, is also highly pertinent to this argument–perhaps even more powerful evidence of something amiss with the statistical process control experiments going one here.
Reply to Kevin Kilty
the process control analogy is interesting along with the notion of an “out of control” process. it shows the value of other disciplines analyzing the results, rather than confining the analysis to “climate science”.
Reply to ferd berple
Control systems (manmade at least) rely on two principles, Controllability and Observability.
This point is especially critical in consideration of Observables in global climate feedbacks. Maybe you could take a two part stab at it. One post on Observability in feedback system control. Another in controllability and where those parameters lie in the phase space of real and imaginary elements.
going “on” here, not going “one” here…
Pat wrote: “These represent the CMIP5 average ±4 Wm-2 systematic cloud forcing error propagated through the simulation.”
Cloud feedback is the reduction in outgoing OLR and reflected SWR caused by clouds that accompanies a change in surface temperature. It is measured in units of W/m2/K. What is cloud forcing (measured in units of W/m2). Why is the uncertainty in cloud forcing +/-4 W/m2? (Lauer and Hamilton (2013) is paywalled.)
Variations in clouds cover do not necessary produce changes in global temperature. Low clouds cool the planet will high clouds warm the planet. A model with greater cloud cover than average may also be a model with higher clouds than average – errors that offset each other and possibly create equally good (or bad) representations of our current climate. When errors are not independent, the usual rules of error propagation don’t apply.
Reply to Frank.
Frank, the most accepted value for global cloud radiative forcing is Hartmann DL, et al. 1992. The Effect of Cloud Type on Earth’s Energy Balance: Global Analysis. J. Climate 5: 1281-1304. It’s defined there as, “the effect of clouds on the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere.”
Hartmnn derived an average cloud radiative forcing of -27.6 W/m^2 – a net cooling – as the overall average effect of clouds on global climate.
You’ll find the ±4 Wm^-2 described as “cloud forcing error” throughout my post. So, why are you asking about cloud feedback?
Lauer and Hamilton (post ref. 7), describe the difference between hindcasted and observed cloud forcing for 27 CMIP5 GCMs.
The ±4 Wm^-2 is the average of the errors the models made in hindcasting global cloud forcing. Lauer and Hamilton define this as, “as the difference between ToA all sky and clear-sky outgoing radiation … in the thermal spectral range (LCF).” LCF is long-wave cloud forcing.
Long wave cloud forcing is the contribution to atmospheric thermal energy flux most relevant to air temperature. Lauer and Hamilton directly give the average CMIP5 LCF error as ±4 Wm^-2; the root-mean-squared-error, not as ±4 Wm^-2K^-1.
Pat Frank: Thanks for you reply. Cloud forcing has an impact on using models to simply reproduce today’s climate. Meehl (2007) reported that the spread of absolute GMST throughout the 20th century was about 3 degC, partly for because of differences in cloud forcing. A 3 degK change in temperature (about 1%) is associated with a 4% change in emission – 10 W/m2 in terms of post-albedo irradiation! So the 4 W/m2 error in cloud forcing is about half of the problem models have representing today’s climate. You will find this figure illuminating; the spread is far greater than 20th century warming:
Climate scientists avoid this problem by using temperature anomalies, assuming that the large errors in reproducing today’s climate will remain constant as GHG’s increase. IF climate models get the RATE of warming from forcing + feedbacks correct, the error is representing current climate is irrelevant (since we already know what current climate is). You and I debated the same issue several years ago with respect to calibration curves for SST proxies – whether the uncertainty in reconstructing temperature CHANGE could be smaller than the uncertainty in reconstructing of absolute temperatures and then taking the difference. I provided a link showing that analytical chemists calculated calibration errors in a manner different than you did. So your disagreement is with more than the climate science community. We didn’t reach any agreement then, so I don’t want to repeat that debate. In the case of climate models, there is no good reason to assume that errors in representing today’s climate are irrelevant to representing climate sensitivity (the rate of warming with forcing).
IMO, the IPCC’s big lie is to pretend that the spread of results between “an ensemble of opportunity” (the phrase used to describe the models in AR4) with different parameters comes close to representing the full uncertainty that would be uncovered by completely exploring “parameter space” and “initialization space” for all of these models. Then there are the systematic errors arising from using grid cells larger than weather phenomena.
Pat: I just noticed that your +/-4 W/m2 error in cloud forcing and my 10 W/m2 spread (ie +/-5 W/m2) are essentially the same. The result of this error is a +/- 1.5 degC range for GMST in climate model output.
Frank writes “errors that offset each other and possibly create equally good (or bad) representations of our current climate.”
Current climate being the operative term. And is why we can do “weather” quite well. If its parameter driven rather than derived from first principles from physics (and it is), then how do these clouds change in a changing climate?
Nobody knows and so its not possible to calculate climate change due to that unknown alone. Let alone all the other parameterised values used in GCMs…
Old'un
Wonderful stuff!
This could just be (and I hope that it is) the final stake through the heart of the AGW vampire that threatens to suck the life blood from Western economies and condemn poorer communities around the world to unnecessary hardship.
Thank you Pat and WUWT
Reply to Old'un
Thanks, Old’un. We can only hope.
Bill Illis
The models just grow based on the assumptions about how CO2/GHGs will warm the planet. Each one has a slightly different built-in assumption and each one has some level of random variation which also occurs. Then there is 4 or 5 different trajectories for CO2/GHGs.
Take any model and show me that is not the case.
You can follow the high and low CO2/GHG assumed sensitivity models here from AR4.
http://s16.postimg.org/j5a2v80qt/IPCC_AR4_Models_vs_Hadcrut_2100_Mar2015.png
Reply to Bill Illis
The lowest assumed ECS is 2.1 degrees C per doubling, and the highest 4.5. Clearly, all those models assuming an ECS above 3.0 should be tossed, and models should be run with assumptions from 0.0 to 2.0 as well. On the best evidence, ECS lies between 0.0 and 2.0. Most likely positive and negative feedbacks roughly cancel each other out, so that actual ECS is around 1.0 to 1.2, the value for the radiative forcing of CO2 by itself. The feedbacks are probably net negative, so I’d go with 1.0 on an a priori basis.
But those from 3.0 to 4.5 are essential to the CACCA myth in order to keep up the scare.
markstoval
Could we not run a few models with ECS of 0.0 to -1.0? Who ever proved ECS is positive?
On WUWT I have repeatedly shown that it IS the case.
I now explain it again.
None of the models – not one of them – could match the change in mean global temperature over the past century if it did not utilise a unique value of assumed cooling from aerosols. So, inputting actual values of the cooling effect (such as the determination by Penner et al.) would make every climate model provide a mismatch of the global warming it hindcasts and the observed global warming for the twentieth century.
This mismatch would occur because all the global climate models and energy balance models are known to provide indications which are based on
the assumed degree of forcings resulting from human activity that produce warming
the assumed degree of anthropogenic aerosol cooling input to each model as a ‘fiddle factor’ to obtain agreement between past average global temperature and the model’s indications of average global temperature.
Nearly two decades ago I published a peer-reviewed paper that showed the UK’s Hadley Centre general circulation model (GCM) could not model climate and only obtained agreement between past average global temperature and the model’s indications of average global temperature by forcing the agreement with an input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling.
The input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling is needed because the model ‘ran hot’; i.e. it showed an amount and a rate of global warming which was greater than was observed over the twentieth century. This failure of the model was compensated by the input of assumed anthropogenic aerosol cooling.
And my paper demonstrated that the assumption of aerosol effects being responsible for the model’s failure was incorrect.
(ref. Courtney RS An assessment of validation experiments conducted on computer models of global climate using the general circulation model of the UK’s Hadley Centre Energy & Environment, Volume 10, Number 5, pp. 491-502, September 1999).
More recently, in 2007, Kiehle published a paper that assessed 9 GCMs and two energy balance models.
(ref. Kiehl JT,Twentieth century climate model response and climate sensitivity. GRL vol.. 34, L22710, doi:10.1029/2007GL031383, 2007).
Kiehl found the same as my paper except that each model he assessed used a different aerosol ‘fix’ from every other model. This is because they all ‘run hot’ but they each ‘run hot’ to a different degree.
He says in his paper:
One curious aspect of this result is that it is also well known [Houghton et al., 2001] that the same models that agree in simulating the anomaly in surface air temperature differ significantly in their predicted climate sensitivity. The cited range in climate sensitivity from a wide collection of models is usually 1.5 to 4.5 deg C for a doubling of CO2, where most global climate models used for climate change studies vary by at least a factor of two in equilibrium sensitivity.
The question is: if climate models differ by a factor of 2 to 3 in their climate sensitivity, how can they all simulate the global temperature record with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
Kerr [2007] and S. E. Schwartz et al. (Quantifying climate change–too rosy a picture?, available here ) recently pointed out the importance of understanding the answer to this question. Indeed, Kerr [2007] referred to the present work and the current paper provides the ‘‘widely circulated analysis’’ referred to by Kerr [2007]. This report investigates the most probable explanation for such an agreement. It uses published results from a wide variety of model simulations to understand this apparent paradox between model climate responses for the 20th century, but diverse climate model sensitivity.
And, importantly, Kiehl’s paper says:
These results explain to a large degree why models with such diverse climate sensitivities can all simulate the global anomaly in surface temperature. The magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing compensates for the model sensitivity.
And the “magnitude of applied anthropogenic total forcing” is fixed in each model by the input value of aerosol forcing.
Kiehl’s Figure 2 can be seen here.
Please note that the Figure is for 9 GCMs and 2 energy balance models, and its title is:
Figure 2. Total anthropogenic forcing (Wm2) versus aerosol forcing (Wm2) from nine fully coupled climate models and two energy balance models used to simulate the 20th century.
It shows that
(a) each model uses a different value for “Total anthropogenic forcing” that is in the range 0.80 W/m^2 to 2.02 W/m^2
(b) each model is forced to agree with the rate of past warming by using a different value for “Aerosol forcing” that is in the range -1.42 W/m^2 to -0.60 W/m^2.
In other words the models use values of “Total anthropogenic forcing” that differ by a factor of more than 2.5 and they are ‘adjusted’ by using values of assumed “Aerosol forcing” that differ by a factor of 2.4.
So, each climate model emulates a different climate system. Hence, at most only one of them emulates the climate system of the real Earth because there is only one Earth. And the fact that they each ‘run hot’ unless fiddled by use of a completely arbitrary ‘aerosol cooling’ strongly suggests that none of them emulates the climate system of the real Earth.
Reply to richardscourtney
Right on, Richard. Your 1999 paper was perspicacious and prescient.
Not Chicken Little
I’d say climate projections have less significance and worth than short-term and even long-term weather projections (like the Farmer’s Almanac and the like). At least weather predictions are sometimes proven right but I’m not aware of any predictive value of the CAGW climate models. Except maybe when they go back and change the original “predictions” like they’ve changed temperature data…
Dave Worley
What is represented by the shorter term irregular jogs up and down in a climate model projection graph? Do they represent some anticipated imbalance based on fact or are they just random variations programmed in to make the graph look like real climate variations.
I suspect the latter, in which case the progression of error will most certainly increase over time. In my opinion they would appear more realistic if they were smooth lines.
You make some good points about the propagation of systematic errors and uncertainty. However, the following statements seem very overstated:
Climate modelers are not scientists. They are not doing science. Their climate model projections have no physical meaning.
By your Boolean standards, a whole lot of scientific and engineering analysis would be declared “non science”. I believe that you’re implying that climate analysis is inherently impossible.
I also think you’re making a fundamental weather vs. climate error. You are comparing a climate analysis to an observation of the weather. For example, a meteorologist tries to predict where and when a certain storm will go, while a climatologist tries to determine how many storms are happening all over the globe on a decade time frame. I believe that that average global temperature for any given month is closer to weather than it is to climate.
Reply to VikingExplorer
When you take a single statement which summed up everything he said before, and use it out of context, of course you can be lead astray, and mislead others. Climate “science” is in a category of its’ own, and has nothing whatsoever to do with any real science since it isn’t based on anything real. It is pseudoscience. The GCMs don’t serve science; they are in the service of an ideology.
I see absolutely nothing in the post which remotely suggests a confusion between weather and climate, so you are way out in left field on that one.
Bruce, I didn’t take anything out of context.
Climate “science” is in a category of its’ own, and has nothing whatsoever to do with any real science since it isn’t based on anything real. It is pseudoscience. The GCMs don’t serve science; they are in the service of an ideology.
Your statements are assertions without any real support. This is your agenda speaking. I probably share your agenda, but one must not let emotion clouds one critical thinking skills. It’s one thing to say that this small group (and yes, it’s a small group) are engaging in pseudoscience. It’s quite another to claim that climate science is pseudoscience. That would mean that scientists skeptical of AGW are also pseudo scientists.
which remotely suggests a confusion between weather and climate, so you are way out in left field on that one.
How about the whole post? The author’s premise is that climate modelers are trying to predict what the average temperature will be in a certain month. The author misses the point completely.
Analogy: a scientist is trying to predict how a river will change it’s course over a century. The river slowly erodes it’s way into a different course. The model for this could include fluid dynamics, etc. However, there is a lot of chaos involved. If one drops a leaf, no one could predict it’s path on any given day. However, one might be able to predict that it will go downstream. That’s the difference between climate and weather.
Anyone who claims that the river modeler has failed because the model did not predict the path of a leaf has completely missed the point. That was never the goal.
The author writes “There is no way, therefore, to choose which temperature projection is physically preferable among all the alternatives”. The author seems oblivious to the fact that chaos is involved. By comparing the average temperature from these simulations to current observation, the author is confusing climate with weather.
Now, I’m certainly not defending any particular climate model, and I believe that many of them are not doing a good job. However, the author comes to conclusions which are not supportable. If being .1% different than observation is grounds for being declared “physically meaningless”, than the law of gravity is in trouble, because recent empirical data was 2% off.
VikingExplorer, The author’s premise is that climate modelers are trying to predict what the average temperature will be in a certain month.
Where does that premise appear anywhere in my post?
You wrote, “By comparing the average temperature from these simulations to current observation, the author is confusing climate with weather.”
Where in my post is there any comparison between model simulations and current observations of weather?
Your claims are not substantiated in anything I wrote. It seems your statements are assertions without any real support. Could it be your agenda speaking?
The first synonym for “premise” is “assumption”.
And so you are really asking where does that assumption appear in my post…
Yes, and . . . ?
>> Yes, and . . . ?
Assumption: something taken for granted; a supposition
Yes, and where does that assumption appear anywhere in the head post?
See my post where the status of climate modelers as scientists is discussed, VikingExplorer. Perhaps you’ll come to agree with the assessment.
My analysis has nothing to do with weather. It’s all about climate models, and temperature projections at the step-wise annual level.
Nevertheless, the area of earth is 510 million square kilometers. Let’s suppose that an individual weather system dominates 100×100 km = 10k km^2 and let’s suppose that any weather system lasts an average of 5 days. That makes a monthly global accounting an average of about 300,000 weather systems. Even if your diagnosis of monthly average was correct (it isn’t), a monthly global average is not about weather.
>> Could it be your agenda speaking?
What would my agenda be?
>> a monthly global average is not about weather.
The first reason why this is false is that the atmosphere is a tiny fraction of the system (Energy-Atmosphere =~ 1/1280 Energy-Ocean). The average surface air temperature would represent only .07% of the thermal mass of the system under study. Natural variability and chaos would cause sinusoidal-like Heat flows throughout the system.
The second reason is timescales. Referring only to Figure 1 of this web site, one can see the timescale differences between weather and climate change. The timescale for climate change is on the order of centuries, with the smallest unit of climate change being a decade.
Therefore, a monthly global, average, surface air temperature IS definitely about weather.
Perhaps whatever agenda you had in mind for Bruce Cobb. You’re the only one who’d know what that is.
Neither of your discursions about weather — minor heat flow compared to the total Earth system, and timescale — has any critical relevance to anything in my post, or indeed to any illumination of weather. It is beyond ludicrous to suppose, as you do, that an average of 3E5 systems reflects the physical behavior of an individual system.
Here’s how your reference site describes weather: “Weather describes current atmospheric conditions, such as rainfall, temperature, and wind speed, at a particular place and time. It changes from day to day.” Your own reference doesn’t support your position.
Every figure in this post is about simulated global average surface air temperature. They never were about weather, and certainly are not about weather.
Unique solutions are the source of physical meaning in science
This seems to me to be an assertion without support. In fact, the article is full of such assertions, but this seems to be the primary one, upon which everything else depends. It doesn’t strike me as the last little bit true.
It would seem that this statement excludes all sciences with chaotic elements. For example, geology, mathematics, microbiology, biology, chemistry, economics, engineering, finance, algorithmic trading, meteorology, physics, politics, population dynamics, psychology, and robotics. source: wiki
In fact, Chaos theory seems to be the best explanation for the Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse
The major reinsurance companies use many different simulations of economic and weather situations to determine their level of risk. I guess Actuarial Science isn’t really science either?
“This seems to me to be an assertion without support.”
That seems to me a statement by someone who knows nothing whatever about science.
So, here’s a question, VikingExplorer: If, as you have it, unique solutions are not central to physical meaning in science, what’s the point of physical error bars and uncertainty intervals?
The unique solution with respect to chaos, VikingExplorer, is to derive to which systems chaos theory applies.
“I guess Actuarial Science isn’t really science either?” Where is the falsifiable theory of Actuarial phenomena?
>> That seems to me a statement by someone who knows nothing whatever about science.
So, asking for logical support for an assertion indicates to you that the person doesn’t know anything about science? An ironic response.
>> So, here’s a question, VikingExplorer: If, as you have it, unique solutions are not central to physical meaning in science, what’s the point of physical error bars and uncertainty intervals?
Error bars and Confidence intervals both seem to be related to observations. I don’t see how they provide support for your bald assertion.
You claim that only “Unique Solutions” are science, yet you have not provided any support for this claim. I’ve never heard that before, and it seems extremely dubious. Examples such as this and many others are clearly scientific.
You claim to have a definition for physical meaning but it’s even more dubious. Even Popper disagreed with the idea that non-falsifiable statements are meaningless.
Obviously, if people were told that there was a 50% chance of rain today, it would have significant meaning. Yet, this information would be the result of multiple simulations of a model. Meteorology is one of those sciences that does not provide unique solutions. It’s rather bold of you to claim on a weather man’s site that Meteorology is not a science.
>> The unique solution with respect to chaos, VikingExplorer, is to derive to which systems chaos theory applies.
Huh? You seem lost. Take a look at the history section of Chaos theory to see all the ways that chaos theory has helped various scientific endeavors. Perhaps you’re unaware of Complex adaptive systems or Complexity Science.
>> “I guess Actuarial Science isn’t really science either?” Where is the falsifiable theory of Actuarial phenomena?
You seem to hold that Popper is the ultimate authority on truth, but he can’t be completely correct, because that would mean Anthropology is not a science. In fact, it would exclude many of the most interesting fields of scientific study.
Your focus on “physical meaning” makes me wonder if you’re a verificationist.
Most people recognize that there are many definitions of “science“, and that Popper’s view is not persuasive since it’s way too restrictive. Many people realize that scientists do not generally do inductive reasoning at all but rather abductive reasoning, or inference to the best explanation.
The bottom line is that most reasonable people have concluded that these kind of scientific demarcation arguments are uninteresting and useless. This is because they are almost exclusively used by some people to denounce other people when they are too inadequate to criticize the ideas themselves.
That’s exactly what you’re doing. Either make a valid scientific criticism of the AGW theory or of a specific climate model. Making a specious claim that all climate models are not science adds nothing to science, but is really just another form of ad-hominem.
Look at it this way, VikingExplorer: if there isn’t a unique solution to the problem of lightning, how would you know a strike isn’t a warning from god?
If there’s no unique solution to the problem of heredity (DNA, genes, and chromosomes), how would you know that biological evolution happened?
If there’s no unique solution to the problem of electromagnetic waves, how would you know that cell phones aren’t magic?
Definitive explanations require unique solutions. Science is in the business of supplying them. Technology would be rule-of-thumb without them.
No unique solution leaves ambiguity. Pervasive ambiguity permits unchecked speculation.
Unchecked speculation is superstition: that’s your no-unique-meaning.
Bright light moving across the daytime sky? How would you know it’s not Apollo? Or Re? Or Mithra? Or space aliens?
Let science step in, and only one answer is forthcoming. One answer = one unique solution, VikingExplorer. There can be no progress in understanding until ambiguity is removed.
A falsifiable theory necessarily supplies a unique meaning. No unique meaning, no falsifiablity. No falsifiability, no discovery of error in theory. No discovery of error, no improvement in theory.
Absent a unitary meaning, any given result transmits an ambiguity. The result has no discrete meaning. Ambiguities permit no resolution. No resolution, no solved problems. No solved problems, no progress in knowledge.
Every single advance in our civilization rests upon the removal of ambiguity. The strongest advances rest upon a unique meaning.
The paper you referenced merely discusses how to proceed when theory is not sufficiently advanced and the data are not sufficiently accurate (or not present) to provide a unique solution. If anything, it proves my point.
You clearly didn’t understand the point that knowing when to apply chaos theory is, ipso facto, the unique solution you deny is necessary to scientific meaning.
I noted above that the falsifiable criterion came to Popper from Einstein. Popper didn’t assume the methodology, he adopted it from working science into his philosophy of science.
You wrote that, “Most people recognize that there are many definitions of science. Philosophers say all sorts of things about science. None of that is definitive, none of it impacts scientific methodology, none of it is important to science, none of it influences how scientists work, or none of it impacts the meanings derived from scientific practice.
Science is not philosophy. The philosophy of science is not science. I co-authored a short paper about that (P. Frank and T.H. Ray (2004) Science is Not Philosophy Free Inquiry 24(6), 40-42). It provides the discrete definition of science, derived from the methodology of science: science is theory and result (objectively qualified). That’s what makes science free of culture or opinion. That’s all one finds in scientific journals. Nothing else survives the ruthless winnowing of scientific practice.
Scientific inferences are hypotheses, VikingExplorer. Hypotheses qualify as scientific when they offer an analytical solution to a problem, suggest explicit experiments regarding that problem, and predict the results of those experiments in the context of that problem.
That is, scientific hypotheses are predictive and falsifiable, in exactly the same manner as bona fide theories. The only difference between a theory and a hypothesis in science, is that the theory derives from a hypothesis that has been overwhelmingly and persistently successful in its predictions. I.e., a theory is a hypothesis that has graduated.
So, abduct all you like, VikingExplorer. Sorry to say, your comments evidence a clear absence of understanding about science. In that, you risk becoming akin to a consensus climate modeler in good standing. Avoid it with all due integrity.
Pat, you seem oblivious to the fact that YOU are the one making a philosophy of science argument. Your post says absolutely NOTHING about how a certain climate model has incorrect science. It’s full of philosophical assertions. It’s only natural that I respond in the same subject.
At one point (10 years ago), I also fell into the Popperian/Falsification view point. It was an attractive argument to make. However, slowly, I evolved as I realized that there is a tremendous amount of scientific work that would be excluded from this kind of demarcation argument. I also realized that it was the same approach that the AGW hockey team uses. They use ostracism as a tactic to demonize their opponents instead of making an actual scientific argument.
The reality is that although Popper is not incorrect, it’s not the whole picture. Ben Lillie (Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Stanford University) explains it well:
Second, while falsifiability is an important principle, it’s far from the final word. Two very simple (and again, simplified) examples are evolution and public health. In large areas of evolution and much of natural history, you simply can’t do experiments. These are clearly science, and there are ways of making strong inferences, it just isn’t by the principle of falsification. Or, in public health, in particular epidemiology. reference
For example, recent empirical data contradicts the law of gravity, however, we’re not about to falsify the theory. It’s also well explained here:
The standard Popperian view of falsifiability falls down on two grounds. Firstly and most simply, it is an absolutist position. A single negative result is sufficient to nullify a hypothesis. Much of modern science relies of statistical measures of certainty. For example, in a modern drug trial, you might have 33/50 patients healed with a drug and 12/50 patients healed with the placebo. From these numbers, you can then derive a confidence that your hypothesis (namely, the drug you are testing is effective against the disease) is correct. Under such a double blind study, there is no set of results that can render a hypothesis completely false. Even if you had 0/50 healed for your drug and 50/50 healed for the placebo, there is a trivial but non-zero chance that your drug might actually work. Thus, drug trials are not strictly falsifiable but are undoubtable modern science.
Secondly, Falsifiability only works for experiment based sciences, not evidence based ones. In experiment based sciences, you are allowed to some degree to control your variables and to run an experiment as many times as you want. In evidence based ones, artificial experiments are not possible and you must decipher the results of natural experiments. The example I like to use to explain this comes from Jared Diamond’s book, Collapse. In this, he posits that there is a correlation between the size of Polynesian islands (among other things) and how deforested they become. Now, this is clearly a scientific hypothesis. The problem is, there are only a finite amount of islands (81 to be precise). The only way to falsify it would be to discover an 82nd island which showed an opposite trend but this is clearly absurd. When asking some questions, the sample size is big enough such that you can essentially ignore the lack of falsifiability. i.e.: dinosaur fossils are being discovered at a large enough rate that they essentially serve the same role as experiments in terms of falsifiability. However, in other cases, only a tiny handful of examples exist or the examples differ so much from each other that essentially no hypothesis can be falsified. Hypothesis’s about a particular species for which only a few fossils exist. Or about whether a certain greenhouse gas is a significant cause of global warming. Or what factors affected planetary formation. In all of these cases and many more, the evidence that exists is not enough to conclusively falsify any of some mutually exclusive predictions and there is no mechanism for gathering more yet they are all undoubtedly science.
Falsifiable science is merely a subset of science in general. Falsifiability hasn’t fallen by the wayside as a criteria, merely superseded.
You tell me to abduct all you like, but the reality is that abduction is the most common form of human reasoning. In fact, it’s been called the “cornerstone of scientific methodology”. It’s really no surprise to me that your article was rejected, since it’s about philosophy of science instead of science. Not only that, it’s clearly incorrect to draw a bright line of scientific demarcation that would exclude so many areas of science.
Anyone reading this that agrees with you had better be prepared to declare the following areas to be non-science:
Anthropology, Archaeology, Medicine, Geology, Astronomy
VikingExplorer, my post is about error analysis. How you conceive that error analysis is a “philosophy of science argument” is anyone’s guess. Your conception certainly has nothing to do with anything in the head post.
You’re right that my post doesn’t say anything about how any certain climate model has incorrect science. That shouldn’t be a surprise though, as it did not set out to assess the science in any given climate model.
The post concerns the cloud forcing error known to be made by all climate models. There is no question about that error. GCM cloud forcing error is well established and the subject of many papers. The post follows on with the impact of that error on the reliability of air temperature projections.
So your criticism that the post does not concern “how a certain climate model has incorrect science” is a complete non-sequitur. It’s irrelevant.
Nor is the head post “full of philosophical assertions.” Physical uncertainty is not about philosophy. Nor is assigning physical meaning through a unique solution. These are merely standard scientific practice for the last 200 years.
As a lower limit of error, known to be common to all CMIP5 GCMs (and all their predecessors), cloud forcing error alone is sufficient to show that climate models cannot resolve the effect of GHGs on air temperature.
That annual ±4 Wm^-2 average GCM cloud forcing error is 110x larger than the 0.036 Wm^-2 annual average increase in GHG forcing, and ±114% of all the excess forcing of all the GHGs emitted since 1900. That error alone demonstrates, unequivocally, that climate models cannot resolve the thermal energy flux of the troposphere to sufficient accuracy to resolve the effect, if any, of emitted GHGs.
This conclusion is obvious to anyone trained in the physical sciences. However, I have yet to meet a climate modeler who can grasp the concept that large errors do not permit tiny resolutions.
You referenced, “Ben Lillie (Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Stanford University)…” as an authoritative source dismissing the falsifiability criterion of science. Ben Lillie is wrong in both his (your) selected instances. Evolutionary theory is falsifiable in that it predicts a physically heritable trait. Genes are that trait. Following Lillie, it is certainly true that one cannot experimentally reproduce the evolutionary history of any organism, for example. That does not remove evolutionary theory itself from the test of falsifiability, however.
On the other hand, epidemiology is all about statistical methodologies and correlations. It’s analytical, but it’s strictly inductive and therefore it’s not science. Ben Lillie’s use of epidemiology as an example is entirely misguided. His use of it, actually, implies that he, himself, doesn’t understand what science is. Your use of it implies the same thing.
Your drug trial exemplar as negating falsification also fails on the same grounds. Double blind studies are just epidemiology localized to a specific group.
In your second example, from Jarred Diamond’s Collapse, “In this, he posits that there is a correlation between the size of Polynesian islands (among other things) and how deforested they become. Now, this is clearly a scientific hypothesis.”
Except that it is not. A scientific hypothesis posits a causal explanation and makes a deductive prediction of future behavior. Diamond’s correlation is strictly associational; it merely produces an inductive extrapolation. It’s not a scientific hypothesis, as it implies no causality.
You wrote, “It’s really no surprise to me that your article was rejected, since it’s about philosophy of science instead of science.
One of my reviewers asserted as philosophy the distinction between accuracy and precision. That put him thoroughly outside the pale of science. My reviewers have been climate modelers. Not one of them gave any evidence of understanding the absolutely fundamental to science accuracy – precision distinction. Or any evidence of understanding the meaning of propagated error. Or the meaning of physical error itself. It is no wonder they recommended rejection. They weren’t competent to understand the argument — an error analysis argument that is common in the physical sciences.
You seem to have the same limited understanding.
You wrote, “Not only that, it’s clearly incorrect to draw a bright line of scientific demarcation that would exclude so many areas of science.” Or else, one should have the intellectual integrity to admit some fields are not science, no matter their analytical rigor.
Among those you listed, Astronomy is observationally falsifiable by reason of distance indicators and spectroscopy, as is Geology by reason (at least) of radio-dating and stratigraphy. Medicine depends on evolutionary theory, making its practice rooted in a falsifiable science. Both Archeology and Anthropology are entirely dependent on physical methods, such as 14C dating, that allows falsification of the provenance of their discoveries.
None of your examples are examples in the sense you intend.
>> How you conceive that error analysis is a “philosophy of science argument” is anyone’s guess. Your conception certainly has nothing to do with anything in the head post
Premise: Science demarcation arguments ARE by definition a philosophy of science argument.
Premise: Any reference to physical meaning indicates a philosophy of science argument (verificationism)
Conclusion: Your post contains a philosophy of science argument.
cloud forcing error known to be made by all climate models. There is no question about that error
Are you omniscient? It seems unlikely that you are personally familiar with every single climate model in existence.
>> None of your examples are examples in the sense you intend
Actually, all of your falsification examples are bogus, as they don’t deal with the central hypotheses of those fields of scientific study. Also, most of these sciences make extensive use of model simulations of problems without unique solutions. They are all based on abduction (inference to the best explanation).
You also missed my point entirely. Your simple minded approach was to respond oh yes they are sciences based on XYZ. My point was that these type of scientific demarcation arguments have been widely discredited because ultimately, they add nothing to understanding the world around us. They are used almost exclusively for political purposes.
if there isn’t a unique solution to the problem of lightning, how would you know a strike isn’t a warning from god?
It is truly incredible that anyone would write such words. Lightning is generally explained by Coulomb’s law. However, the theory does not give us a unique solution to the where and when of lightning. Fortunately, most people don’t share your strange ideas about physical meaning and are creating computer models to help understand it better. I hope they don’t get discouraged when they realize that they aren’t scientists.
The second sentence is truly ignorant. I can’t believe that anyone could possibly believe that heredity indicates that biological evolution happened. I’m shocked that anyone could believe that the theory of Darwinian evolution provides a “unique solution” that predicts that the current set of life forms would come into existence.
The reality is that the theory of Darwinian evolution is based on abduction (inference to the best explanation). Although some may argue about whether it is still the best explanation, it is most definitely science, and it does provide physical meaning.
However, your definition of science would exclude Lightning modelers and evolutionary theorists from the scientific realm. Your whole science demarcation argument is bogus.
VikingExplorer, you wrote, “Premise: Science demarcation arguments ARE by definition a philosophy of science argument.”
Not correct. Science separated itself fully from philosophy when its theories became contingent upon observations. Since the time of Galileo. That is methodology not philosophy, and is sufficient to separate science from all other forms of inquiry.
You wrote, “Premise: Any reference to physical meaning indicates a philosophy of science argument (verificationism)”
Also not correct. Meaning in science resides in the interplay of physical theory and observations, as per the methodology. Theory explains the observations; explanation confers meaning; observations challenge the theory. The entire system is self-contained. Philosophy has no part in it.
None of my discussion of science has ever been verificationist.
Your mistaken views insubstantiate your conclusion that, “[My] post contains a philosophy of science argument..
It’s quite clear from the practice of climate modelers as previously noted, and following from the above, that their work is removed from the methodology of science, namely theory and result.
The signal failure of climate modelers is that they are evidently untrained in evaluating physical error. They have no apparent approach to evaluating the physical reliability of their own models. They have, in other words, short-circuited the judgment of observation.
You wrote, “Are you omniscient? It seems unlikely that you are personally familiar with every single climate model in existence.” The literature is filled with papers documenting that error. Every single model reported exhibits cloud forcing error.
You’re welcome to publish a study showing some climate model that gets clouds right, at a resolution that will reveal a GHG effect on air temperature. When that’s done, I’ll change my view. And good luck with that.
You wrote”Actually, all of your falsification examples are bogus, as they don’t deal with the central hypotheses of those fields of scientific study.”
So you think spectroscopy doesn’t deal with the central hypothesis of Astronomy that those lights in the night sky are sun-like bodies. You think that stratigraphy and radio-dating are not central to a Geology that must order and date strata and sediments to provide its basic context. You don’t think evolutionary biology is central to a medicine that deals with gene-based organisms.
Your dismissal is thoughtless, VikingExplorer.
You keep making the same mistake about abduction, generalizing it into some defining role in science. Prediction is deductive. Inference is not.
Your mistake is in not realizing that science is a bootstrap method (very a-philosophical, no?). Bootstrap is most evident when theories are incomplete. Inferences can then be used to inform a hypothesis — your “best explanation.” “Best explanations” must be predictive to be useful. Predictive explanations are hypotheses, and the prediction is a deduction from that hypothesis.
Your final paragraph is a crock. I gave explicit reasons why each of those disciplines belongs with science. You dealt with none of them. Your dismissal is hardly different from one based in personal incredulity. The demarcation of science from other ways of knowing is complete, in that science is based in observation and is explicitly not axiomatic. Everything is contingent. All of it is free of cultural opinion. That puts the demarcation argument outside of politics; politics being thoroughly culture-bound.
you wrote, “Premise: Science demarcation arguments ARE by definition a philosophy of science argument.”
The fact that you think that what you wrote above supports your assertion that what I wrote is incorrect is a microcosm of the whole problem. You seem incapable of thinking abstractly about your argument.
There is no doubt that the demarcation problem is part of the philosophy of science. There is no doubt that you claimed that climate modeling efforts are NOT science, and yet you deny that you have made a philosophy of science argument.
Your ability to deny reality exceeds that of the AGW enthusiasts. This isn’t an argument, this is just contradiction.
VikingExplorer, you wrote, “There is no doubt that the demarcation problem is part of the philosophy of science.”
Philosophy is necessarily axiomatic. Science is not.
Grounding the content of physical theory in observation completely separates science from philosophy. Recognizing that fundamental difference is not an element of philosophy.
Just to make it fully clear, “fundamental distinction” equates to demarcation.
What philosophers do with that idea is their business. But whatever they do doesn’t have any impact on science.
You finished with, “Your ability to deny reality exceeds that of the AGW enthusiasts. This isn’t an argument, this is just contradiction.“, which is pretty ironic, given that it is your posts, not mine, that have descended to being merely rejectionate.
Don’t bother telling us again, because by now it’s clear that you are incapable of grasping that you hold a certain philosophy of science as axiomatic, and that you’re going be incognizant and assert that what you just wrote isn’t demarcation, or that demarcation isn’t philosophy of science, but in fact it is by definition.
noun: dramatic irony – a literary technique, originally used in Greek tragedy, by which the full significance of a character’s words or actions are clear to the audience or reader although unknown to the character.
“Definition” in your hands is indistinguishable from mere assertion, VikingExplorer. As recourse to conclusion by fiat, it doesn’t even rise to a poor argument.
I have pointed out that methodological theory contingent on observation puts science forever outside philosophy. Philosophy is necessarily axiomatic. Science is necessarily not.
That same methodological distinction must therefore necessarily demarcate science from philosophy, without itself being philosophy. That is, the demarcation is a consequence of orthogonal content. Supposing a demarcation from philosophy is philosophy (your position), is to make as fundamental a category mistake as is possible to make. Your position supposes a set includes its own negation.
Your entire argument has rested upon a need to degrade science into the polysemous. Doing so muddies the language of science, allowing misrepresentation of the spurious as scientific. Spurious is what consensus air temperature projections are; represented as having physical meaning when in fact they do not. Physical meaning: the interplay of theory and observation; not philosophy, never philosophy, orthogonal to philosophy.
VikingExplorer, you wrote, “ However, the theory does not give us a unique solution to the where and when of lightning.”
The theory of lightning gives us an explanation of what lightning is (its physical meaning); which is what the theory is meant to do.
Attacking a misrepresented position is called a straw man argument. Just so you know.
You wrote, “The second sentence is truly ignorant. I can’t believe that anyone could possibly believe that heredity indicates that biological evolution happened.”
The solution to the problem of heredity is the existence of an inheritable trait. Genes, chromosomes and DNA provide the solution to that problem. In short, you got the problem backwards.
Biological evolution is the observable. Darwin began “Origin of Species” with a long discussion of the breeding outcomes of pigeons, as evidence for the existence of evolution. The theory of evolution provides the mechanism for the observation: organismal variation and natural selection. Organismal variation is found in the genes. Genes are the heritable trait required by the theory. QED, theory and result, and the threat of falsification in biology.
Ignorance is on display here, VikingExplorer, but it’s not mine.
You wrote, “I’m shocked that anyone could believe that the theory of Darwinian evolution provides a “unique solution” that predicts that the current set of life forms would come into existence.”
You’re asserting what is not in evidence. This seems to be a continuing problem.
Mike Maguire
Based on the response by life on this planet over the last 30 years to CO2, weather and climate. these were the best conditions to be a creature or part of the biosphere on planet earth……….. in at least 1,000 years(the Medieval Warm Period).
The only realm that shows otherwise is the one that exists in models.
gingoro
Has anyone tried to do an nth order polynomial or a Fourier series curve fit on the climate data? I wonder if such a curve fit would produce better results than the climate models? DaveW
BoulderSkeptic
Reply to gingoro
A “random walk” may be the place to start with that. I haven’t delved into it much, but search on this site and the net for “random walk” and climate. Here are some starting points. Ross McKitrick did an article last month summarizing some of the work critiquing model fits and noted:
http://www.rossmckitrick.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mckitrick_greer-heard2015.pdf
“Fildes et al. (2011) took the same data set and compared model predictions against a “random walk” alternative, which simply means using the last period’s value in each location as the forecast for the next period’s value. Basic statistical forecasting models with no climatology or physics in them typically got scores slightly better than a random walk. The climate models got scores far worse than a random walk, indicating a complete failure to provide valid forecast information at the regional level, even on long time scales. The authors commented ‘This implies that the current [climate] models are ill-suited to localised decadal predictions, even though they are used as inputs for policy making.’ ”
Dr, Dr. Roy Spencer just did a relevant post on random walks and climate models:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/05/mystery-climate-index-2-explanation/
and a statistician a few years ago:
http://wmbriggs.com/post/257/
which points to an old paper from 91 on the topic which suggests a random walk matches:
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%281991%29004%3C0589%3AGWAAMO%3E2.0.CO%3B2
as do these:
https://www.academia.edu/7625150/Application_of_random_walk_model_to_fit_temperature_in_46_gamma_world_cities_from_1901_to_1998
http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?PaperID=5318#.VVSwjvtVhBc
gingoro, climate model hindcasts are little more than a complicated exercise in curve fitting. Their projections are then extrapolations of the curve fit into regions without data.
climate model hindcasts are little more than a complicated exercise in curve fitting
By not specifying which climate models you are talking about, and making completely general statements like this, you are guaranteed to be wrong.
You are actually making the unsupportable assertion that ANY climate model is INHERENTLY impossible to create in a scientific manner.
According to your statement, even if one collected a group of extremely intelligent and intellectually honest scientists with no a-priori biases, they could not possible create a climate model that would not be a “complicated exercise in curve fitting”.
The current post shows that all current climate models, right up to the CMIP5 level, fall under that diagnosis, VikingExplorer.
Overwrought hyperbole.
They seem to be in essence curve fits of some variation on a random walk, tweaked to have an overall upward bias and to manage to match some historical data in some ways (or as some studies suggest, tweaked to match each other even more than being tweaked to match reality), with the same question that any curve fit therefore has as to whether there is any reason to believe it matches the real world process generating the data. To do so it would have to be argued both that it matches not merely the areas it was tweaked to match (i.e. it matches regionally and over different timescales) and that the underlying physics matches reality.. which is hard to do with certain areas of the physics poorly understood and differing between models (e.g. cloud details). The very fact that models with differing and incomplete/uncertain physics sort of vaguely match reality, getting the “right” (to some degree) answer for the wrong reasons, should cause people to wonder how they are tweaked to do so and question why their future projections should be taken seriously since the “wrong reasons” are more likely to lead to the “wrong answers” in the future than to accidentally sort of be “right” in a future they can’t tweak it now to match.
You dispute the true accurate and uncontroversial statement by Pat Frank that says
Please see my above post in this thread that is here. It explains this matter about which – in common with many other matters – you are misguided.
You are missing a point which is clearly explained. I’m making a fairly obvious point of logic. If you were claiming that some or most of the climate models are just curve fitting (implication: full of fudge factors), then I would readily agree.
However, as written, and as I said before:
I assumed Richard meant any CURRENT model are you saying otherwise?
I asked you to read my above post and I linked to it.
Either you did not read it or you lack reading comprehension skills.
My post is about existing climate models and energy balance models. I did NOT discuss – nor mention – hypothetical other models.
It is simply true that as Pat Frank says
His statement is true of ALL EXISTING climate models and my explanation is of why it is true.
You raise a ‘straw man’ when you say
NO! ABSOLUTELY NOT!
You are claiming that the existing models are the totality of all possible climate models, and your claim is blatant nonsense. Pat Frank has not made that suggestion and I have not, either.
>> His statement is true of ALL EXISTING climate models
Richard, you and Pat seem incapable of refraining from making over generalized statements.
Considering your statement above, how is that you have personal knowledge of every climate model in every university around the world?
You resorting to all caps and bold indicates that you are getting angry, and that I’m touching a nerve. Perhaps what I thought was just a minor issue is a lot more important to you. If it were me, I would have immediately agreed and inserted the word “most” or “many” in front of “climate models”.
Instead, you react by doubling down on the “ALL EXISTING” claim. Strange…
Everything else about CO2-CAGW theory is in the process of failing or has fallen apart.
– Polar sea ice levels are not cooperating with their alarmist projections.
– Global Storm freq-intensity measures are demonstrably flat or declining. (While regions are fluctuating, some high, some low.)
– Droughts have always existed some place on continents (as Joe Bastardi regularly points out with data to substantiate). So pointing to an on-going drought (as evidence of CC) somewhere is always possible if you ignore the historical variability patterns across centuries.
– Record world food crop productions continue, with most variability attributable to market choices (of price-supply/demand) and regional impacts (of weather and drought), rather than changing climate.
– SLR is not accelerating, and continues at a leisurely pace (for an interglacial period) of ~2.8 mm/yr.
– A modestly warming world (coming out of the LIA) is improving air quality of coastal cities as diurnal wind flows between land-sea improves lower troposphere air exchange.
Throw out the GCM models from the IPCC AR’s, and they have nothing.
The models are a success, not because they are crap (which they are), but because they produce the desired results to sell a problem-solution ideology. With solutions that involve new taxes, crony capitalism, ruling class controls, and the ensuing gobs of money to line pockets under the guise of re-distribution.
So they (the CAGW establishment) will resist the logic and science attacks on model vs reality to the very bitter end. Call it some modern-day cross-mix of NCC, hubris, and pursuit of money and power that drives them to varying individual degrees. Against these realities, we can expect that the global temp data set machinations and manglings will get worse in the defense of the CAGW cause. In their minds, they have no other choice.
Reply to joelobryan
Besides the lying models, they sell the scare with other outright lies, such as “extreme weather”, which many fall in the public for because the media fail in their constitutional mission of calling BS on the regime and its sc*m du jours. Their failure is so extreme that they actually serve as propagandistic cheerleaders rather than the gadflies they’re supposed to be.
Sorry. In the public fall for.
Larry Hamlin
Outstanding article Mr. Frank. Superb graphics. Many thanks.
Reply to Larry Hamlin
Thanks, Larry.
knr
The trouble is thinking you won because you proved their facts wrong, this does not work becasue it simply was not an argument about facts in the first place.
Interesting work nicely presented … well done, Pat.
Reply to Willis Eschenbach
Thanks, Willis. Much appreciated. I figure if I’ve passed your sniff test, I’ve done well. 🙂
HankHenry
Do mathematical projections have any real meaning?
This answer to this is nothing new. Huxley said it in 1869.
“Mathematics may be compared to a mill of exquisite workmanship, which grinds you stuff of any degree of fineness; but, nevertheless, what you get out depends upon what you put in; and as the grandest mill in the world will not extract wheat-flour from peascod, so pages of formulae will not get a definite result out of loose data. ” -Thomas Henry Huxley
Reply to HankHenry
A perfect insight.
Except that TH Huxley had no ability to do math, so that his opinion was self serving. Also, he argued vehemently for a theory which was based purely on abduction, and is not falsifiable.
And yet, where is Huxley wrong?
In science, inference is to best predictive (falsifiable by observation) hypothesis, not to best explanation. The difference is thoroughly fundamental.
Evolutionary theory is indeed falsifiable. Darwin knew nothing of genes or genetics, and yet predicted a material mechanism of heredity (see gemmule), to account for the action of natural selection upon organismal variation.
Evolutionary theory would be falsified were there no evidence for the physical mechanism of inherited traits. And yet Mendelian genetics was found, independently of Darwin and his prediction.
If 100 climate models give 100 different climate scenarios, aren’t 99 wrong by definition? There is only one right answer, and if you know which model is right, why bother with the others? Using an average of 99 incorrect models and one perhaps correct model is meaningless. If 2 guys say they are Jesus, at least one is lying.
richard verney
Reply to Craig
The warmist claim the science is settled and that CAGW is based upon sound principles and understanding of the physics.
If the science was settled and understood, why are there approximately 100 GCMs and not jsut one?
Doesn’t the fact that there are about 100 GCMs demonstrate initself that the science is not settled and understood?
I frequently ask warmists to identify which of the about 100 GCMs is the one that is based upon setlled science and the correct physics of the Earth’s climate system and its response to CO2?
So far, no one has been able to answer that simple question.
Dr. Brown highlights this issue repeatedly.
I believe the primary issue is the political nature of the IPCC. All countries (i.e. models) are equal, we must not discriminate. I am old enough to remember when “discriminating” meant something different.
If the weather report says that there is a 75% chance of rain, will you consider bringing your umbrella? This has falsified your hypothesis. How do you think they came up with the 75% figure? They ran many different simulations, and 75% of them showed rain.
The list of sciences that make extensive use of computer simulation has grown to include astrophysics, particle physics, materials science, engineering, fluid mechanics, climate science, evolutionary biology, ecology, economics, decision theory, medicine, sociology, epidemiology, and many others.
“So, when someone says about AGW that, “The science is settled!,” one can truthfully respond that it is indeed settled: there is no science in AGW.”.
Thanks, Pat Frank.
Models are devoid of physical meaning, but loaded with political and emotional meaning.
Reply to Andrés
Yes! They do, indeed, provide meaningful “information”…
WELL DONE, Dr. Pat Frank!
Bottom line for those in a hurry:
“… the correspondence is deliberately built-in.
Exactly right, Andrés. The whole enterprise runs on that.
Let me add that one of the most pernicious assumptions of the modelers is that the actual climate parameter space is adequately both explored and mapped by the variations in both the models and the parameters used in the model runs …
This incorrect assumption is implicit in e.g. the equally incorrect idea that the average of an “ensemble” of untested, uncalibrated, unvalidated, and unverified models has some kind of statistical value.
Quinn the Eskimo
Climate model means – 117 wrongs make a right.
The average of wrong is wrong.
The averaging is to reduce the width of the error in the wrongness of it all, not to make the output correct. it does nothing to aid the reasonablenss and reliability of the projection/prediction.
I totally agree with you, Willis.
The implicit assumption underlying all those multi-model projections and averages is that the model physical theory itself is physically complete and would yield a physically true representation of the climate if only the parameters were exactly known, along with the initial conditions.
Somewhat like Newtonians [though I hate to glorify them as being that competent] locked into the orbit of Mercury and going round and round getting nowhere.
Wait, are you saying that it’s impossible to create a model that is complete enough to predict the climate to a reasonable accuracy?
I pride myself on being the most skeptical, but you people are starting to froth at the mouth with anti-science rhetoric.
>> The average of wrong is wrong.
Reality check: the models are off by .1%.
VikingExplorer May 21, 2015 at 10:50 am
Recognizing our own limitations is now “anti-science”?
Viking, the real answer is that we do not know whether such a climate model is possible, even in theory. As even the IPCC has noted,
“…we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
Climate is far and away the most complex system that we have ever tried to model. It has at least six major subsystems, none of which are completely understood and some of which are hardly investigated—atmosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, ocean, and electrosphere. Modeling even one of these to the required level of detail is currently beyond our abilities, because they are all inter-related by feedbacks and chains of effect and non-linear couplings and individual and multi-system resonances, both known and unknown.
So no, Viking, I’m afraid that today in 2015, we truly do not know if it is possible to “predict the climate to a reasonable accuracy” even in theory … however, we can confidently say that to date, we have completely failed to be able to do so in practice.
>> even in theory …
Willis, I think your comment is plausible and perhaps likely correct up to the above words.
All of the areas that you list may be problematic but with enough time, they are knowable. The problem is certainly not inherently impossible. Not understanding something is an issue for 2015, but the rest of what you wrote is just a matter of analysis and computer horsepower.
With all due respect to your incredible writing skill and remarkable citizen scientific efforts, when someone with your background says it’s impossible even in theory, it rings hollow.
My goal is to create a climate model someday. Although I don’t currently have a PhD (like my father – PhD EE), but I’ve got a BSEE (as well as my wife and brother). Yesterday, my two oldest kids (in school for Physics and Chem Engineering) were here calculating the behavior of a proton gas inside a metal container. So, from my point of view, it looks different.
VikingExplorer May 22, 2015 at 8:12 am
So you believe that all systems are inherently modelable and computable? Let me introduce you to my little friend … chaos. The future evolution of some chaotic systems seem to be uncomputable with anything less complex than a model which is essentially a totally identical parallel universe.
That is to say, in some chaotic systems you literally need to know the location and velocity of every particle in the system to compute which way it will evolve.
Which sounds doable, at least in theory … but as Heisenberg observed, simultaneously knowing both the location and velocity of even a single particle is not possible, even in theory.
… which leads to the following mathematician’s joke.
A policeman pulled Werner Heisenberg’s car over because he was speeding. The cop asked him, “Do you know how fast you were going?”
“No,” said Heisenberg, “… but I know where I was!”
>> my little friend … chaos
That’s the great thing about climatology: it’s much easier than Weather, because the timescales are much greater. In my pervious example, the study of how a river changes it’s course over time is much, much easier than determining the course of a leaf thrown into the river. The latter is all about chaos, while the former is much more predictable.
You should be aware that we’ve done it before. At the molecular level, it’s totally chaotic. However, this didn’t stop humanity from creating Thermodynamics and Circuit Theory. These sciences remain completely valid, although they summarize the net effects of a tremendous amount of chaotic behavior.
But in the end, V = I*R.
That’s the great thing about climatology: it’s much easier than Weather, because the timescales are much greater.
Thanks, Viking. That could be true … but only if the weather is chaotic and the climate is not. However, Mandelbrot himself investigated the question and found as follows (emphasis mine):
Among the classical dicta of the philosophy of science is Descartes’ prescription to “divide every difficulty into portions that are easier to tackle than the whole…. This advice has been extraordinarily useful in classical physics because the boundaries between distinct sub-fields of physics are not arbitrary. They are intrinsic in the sense that phenomena in different fields interfere little with each other and that each field can be studied alone before the description of the mutual interactions is attempted.
Subdivision into fields is also practised outside classical physics. Consider for example, atmospheric science. Students of turbulence examine fluctuations with time scales of the order of seconds or minutes, meteorologists concentrate on days or weeks, specialists whom one might call macrometeorologists concentrate on periods of a few years, climatologists deal with centuries and finally paleoclimatologists are left to deal with all longer time scales. The science that supports hydrological engineering falls somewhere between macrometeorology and climatology.
The question then arises whether or not this division of labour is intrinsic to the subject matter. In our opinion, it is not in the sense that it does not seem possible when studying a field in the above list, to neglect its interactions with others, We therefore fear that the division of the study of fluctuations into distinct fields is mainly a matter of convenient labelling and is hardly more meaningful than either the classification of bits of rock into sand, pebbles, stones and boulders or the classification of enclosed water-covered areas into puddles, ponds, lakes and seas.
Take the examples of macrometeorology and climatology. They can be defined as the sciences of weather fluctuations on time scales respectively smaller and longer than one human lifetime. But more formal definitions need not be meaningful. That is, in order to be considered really distinct, macrometeorology and climatology should be shown by experiment to be ruled by clearly separated processes, In particular there should exist at least one time span on the order of one lifetime that is both long enough for micrometeorological fluctuations to be averaged out and short enough to avoid climate fluctuations…
It is therefore useful to discuss a more intuitive example of the difficulty that is encountered when two fields gradually merge into each other. We shall summarize the discussion in M1967s of the concept of the length of a seacoast or riverbank. Measure a coast with increasing precision starting with a very rough scale and dividing increasingly finer detail. For example walk a pair of dividers along a map and count the number of equal sides of length G of an open polygon whose vertices lie on the coast. When G is very large the length is obviously underestimated. When G is very small, the map is extremely precise, the approximate length L(G) accounts for a wealth of high-frequency details that are surely outside the realm of geography. As G is made very small, L(G) becomes meaninglessly large. Now consider the sequence of approximate length that correspond to a sequence of decreasing values of G. It may happen that L(G) increases steadily as G decreases, but it may happen that the zones in which L(G) increases are separated by one or more “shelves” in which L(G) is essentially constant. To define clearly the realm of geography, we think that it is necessary that a shelf exists for values of G near λ. where features of interest to the geographer satisfy G>=λ and geographically irrelevant features satisfy G much less than λ. If a shelf exists, we call G(λ) a “coast length”.
After this preliminary, let us return to the distinction between macrometeorology and climatology. It can be shown that to make these fields distinct, the spectral density of the fluctuations much have a clear-cut “dip” in the region of wavelengths near λ with large amounts of energy located on both sides. But in fact no clear-cut dip is ever observed.
When one wishes to determine whether or not such distinct regimes are in fact observed, short hydrological records of 50 or 100 years are of little use. Much longer records are needed; thus we followed Hurst in looking for very long records among the fossil weather data exemplified by varve thickness and tree ring indices. However even when the R/s diagrams are so extended, they still do not exhibit the kinds of breaks that identifies two distinct fields.
In summary the distinctions between macrometeorology and climatology or between climatology and Paleoclimatology are unquestionably useful in ordinary discourse. But they are not intrinsic to the underlying phenomena.
Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969. Global dependence in geophysical records, Water Resources Research 5, 321-340.
So on the one hand, you claim without proof that there is a statistical difference between weather and climate such that although you agree that weather is chaotically unpredictable, you say climate is predictable.
Mandelbrot, on the other hand, offers investigative observational proof that your claim is wrong. He looked at the statistics of 9 rainfall series, 12 varve series, 11 river series, 27 tree ring series, 1 earthquake occurrence series, and 3 Paleozoic sediment series. He found no evidence for your claim of distinctions between weather and climate. This means that if weather is chaotic, the climate is as well … and we know the weather is chaotic.
There’s a good discussion of this from a decade ago over at Climate Audit.
Viking, you might also enjoy (emphasis mine):
On the credibility of climate predictions
D. KOUTSOYIANNIS, A. EFSTRATIADIS, N. MAMASSIS & A. CHRISTOFIDES
Geographically distributed predictions of future climate, obtained through climate models, are widely used in hydrology and many other disciplines, typically without assessing their reliability. Here we compare the output of various models to temperature and precipitation observations from eight stations with long (over 100 years) records from around the globe. The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.
The paper is here. Koutsoyiannis is always good, detailed, well cited, and persuasive.
>> This means that if weather is chaotic, the climate is as well … and we know the weather is chaotic.
I don’t believe Mandelbrot is correct in the general case. Thermodynamics and Circuit Theory falsify his idea.
>> weather is chaotically unpredictable, you say climate is predictable.
1) When you said “without proof”, you missed a subtle point of logic. I’m not one of those people who believe that given enough time, man will be able to do anything, like redesign our own DNA and travel at warp speeds. I think we agree that it may be impossible. However, if someone says “it’s impossible”, that seems clearly wrong.
2) I also think some people should be concerned about arguing themselves into a corner. If the climate were in fact chaotic, then the idea of a tipping point becomes more plausible. The long history of earth would seem to falsify this idea. This is also the pattern we see with other chaotic phenomena. No one can easily predict a path of a leaf, but we can say with some certainty that it will go downstream.
3) We also have to consider that chaotic doesn’t mean totally unpredictable. Weather predictions are better today than they were 20 years ago.
4) Thanks for the link to the CA discussion. I note that there was no significant argument in favor of a chaotic climate. One commenter pointed out that if climate is that which is caused by external forcing, then solar weather would introduce some chaos into the climate.
5) Another point is that what we normally think of when we say weather actually only involves .07% of the thermal mass of the water/air system. Although there is still some chaos in the oceans, it’s far less than the atmosphere.
6) The issue with the Koutsoyiannis reference is one of logic. “Thus local model projections cannot be credible”. Clearly, climate is an average over the whole globe (land/sea/air), with the minimum timescale being a decade. Koutsoyiannis compares model results to a certain 8 places around the globe. This is weather by definition. My plan for a climate model would be to have N number of weather systems randomly traversing the globe, with no attempt to try to predict the where or when of any particular real life weather system. A climate model should NOT be considered an extension of a weather model.
Mandelbrot said nothing about a general case. He, just like us, is discussing whether there is a difference between weather and climate such that one is chaotic and one is not. He said no. He said that both are chaotic.
Let me review the bidding. My statement that you seemed to find incorrect was:
Viking, the real answer is that we do not know whether such a climate model is possible, even in theory.
You said the first part was correct, up to “even in theory”.
… even in theory …
I said we don’t know if the climate is predictable in theory. So your claim is that we DO know that modeling the climate is possible in theory … perhaps you’d be so kind as to point to the study that in your mind shows that we can model chaotic systems over long time spans? Serious question, Viking. I see you believe we can model anything. I used to believe that. I’ve been writing computer programs of all types, including complex models of a variety of physical systems, for fifty-two years now. I no longer believe that anything can be modeled.
I see also that you have not commented on the quote I gave from the IPCC:
Heck, my statement was much weaker than that. I merely said we didn’t know if it was possible in theory … which is why your objecting was such a surprise. They flat-out state that it is NOT possible in theory.
Finally, you say:
We also have to consider that chaotic doesn’t mean totally unpredictable. Weather predictions are better today than they were 20 years ago.
Weather predictions are incrementally better now than then, but much of that is because of the widespread use of ever more sophisticated satellite data. Better input gives better output. But even with all of the incremental increases, far too often you look at the forecast on Wednesday and plan your weekend barbecue … only to get rained out on Sunday. The problem is simply stated:
In a chaotic system, divergence between model and reality increases with time.
We can predict the weather five minutes from now with good accuracy. We can’t make much more than an educated guess about the weather five years from now. Divergence increases with time. And as Mandelbrot not only claimed but actually measured, this is true up to and including time spans of hundreds of years. The climate is no less chaotic than is the weather.
Viking, the ugly reality is that there are systems for which we simply cannot compute the future evolution with any computer which is less complex than the system itself.
“The climate is no less chaotic than is the weather.”
Not really. The average global temperature in 2024 won’t be more than a few tenths of a degree different than it was in 2014. The high temperature at my location 10 days from now is probably going to be a few degrees different than the high temperature today.
>> Mandelbrot said nothing about a general case
Sorry, I misspoke. I disagree with Mandelbrot about climate being dominated by chaos. I believe this because the long term reconstructions of earth’s climate indicate as much.
>> I said we don’t know if the climate is predictable in theory
Ok, I see how we miscommunicated here. You meant we do not know whether such a climate model is possible (period). I agree with this rewording. Adding “in theory” is superfluous, and confused me, since by definition, a model is theory. It made me think that you meant that the underlying theory was unknowable.
( in theory is also a synonym for unproven, but that would also be redundant)
>> I no longer believe that anything can be modeled.
I agree with you that it the may be impractical to model physical phenomena when the complexity of the model approaches the reality (e.g. at the molecular level). However, impractical is not the same as impossible.
We can’t make much more than an educated guess about the weather five years from now. Divergence increases with time.
Yes, and if we were trying to predict the weather, you would be 100% correct. However, can you please take a step back, put your abstract thinking cap on, and read this for comprehension:
A climate model should NOT be designed as an extension of a weather model.
One should not ask a climate model if it’s going to rain, or what the temperature is going to be on a certain day or month 10 years from now.
If I asked for a prediction of future beach erosion, a scientist should not start by modeling fluid dynamics at the molecular level. If I asked for a prediction of what current would flow in response to a voltage, a scientist should not start by modeling electrodynamics at the molecular level.
For an example of what I mean:
…model fills a niche in between small-scale simulations that treat the detailed plasma physics of breakdown… lightning models
As for reality, it’s not that ugly, because we’ve discovered that although it is really chaotic at the small scales, yet at the macro scale, it typically follows well defined rules. Close up, the sun is complete and total chaos, and yet some people consider it a constant.
Bill 2 is correct about 2024. The long term history of our climate temperature falls into a fairly small range.
It’s a noob praising a Jedi, but I really liked this essay, just as I have greatly admired Pat Frank’s other essays on climate science. I love the clarity of expression and the force of the logic presented. Here’s my favorite bit: “The England, et al., set of CMIP5 models produced constant air temperatures for multiple climate energy states, and multiple air temperatures for every single annual climate energy state.” It’s indeed “robust,” but not in the way England, et al. think.
Reply to Quinn the Eskimo
lol — nice choice of quote, Eskimo Quinn.
#(:))
We’re all noobs somewhere Quinn. 🙂 And thanks.
re: “The physical meaning of the recently published study of M. England, et al., [6] exemplified in Figure 3 below, is now apparent. ”
I posted this a bit late on a prior page so I’ll pass it on here also. There is a post by England, on the un-skeptical site Skeptical Science where he talks about that paper and says:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-hiatus-doesnt-take-heat-off-global-warming.html
“Until now, however, no evaluation has been made of the possible consequences for long-term projections. Specifically, if the variability controlling the current hiatus is linked to longer-term sequestration of heat into the deep ocean, this might require us to recalibrate future projections.
With this in mind, we decided to test whether 21st century warming projections are altered in any way when considering only simulations that capture a slowdown in global surface warming, as observed since 2001.”
So he thinks that models that weren’t dealing with long-term ocean sequestration of heat, but somehow accidentally predicted the pause, have relevance to claims about future warming if the ocean were involved in a way that wasn’t in the models? Wow is that absurd, as is of course the paper’s claim of the “robust nature of twenty-first century warming projections” when only a minuscule fraction of the model runs matched the pause. The fact that they are all tweaked to meander a bit but wind up around the same high range eventually and some of them accidentally happened to match the pause isn’t indicating anything “robust” about them.
Reply to BoulderSkeptic
One thing I haven’t come across what were the ‘tweaks’ that produced accurate predictions of the pause?
And I take it that all the other models have now been discarded?
Reply to Jon Lonergan
The issue is that merely out of a large number of model runs, due to inbuilt random variations, they accidentally match the pause, just like accidentally you can manage to flip a coin to get heads a few times in a row. Picture a random walk tweaked to have a slight upward bias, but small enough that for some periods in some runs it can cycle up and down for a bit without rising too much and generate a “trend” that is somewhat flat for a number of years, and then the location of that trend accidentally falling in the right years. That isn’t exactly what is going on (the internal structure isn’t directly a random walk even if it essentially maps onto one in its results), but it illustrates the concept. Tuning the model to match the past likely biases it in favor of being a bit more likely to be able to reproduce the pause by chance due to the characteristics of whatever random walk it in essence corresponds to. By analogy with certain sets of data that are actually generated by say a quadratic function or other polynomial, there might be sections where the curve is almost flat and happens to match a linear fit, but that linear fit will then diverge from the more complicated reality.
The very fact that they can claim “oh the ocean must be swallowing the heat in a way we didn’t account for in the models” but then act as though they can still look at those models for guidance merely because they found some runs that randomly matched reality, suggests a lack of awareness on their part that to be credible models can’t merely accidentally curve-fit to a small set of data, that they actually need to credibly claim to model the underlying processes involved. Getting the “right” answer for the wrong reasons doesn’t lend credibility to any future predictions.
As far as I know, the internals of the climate models are unknown to the public. Do these models have some theory behind them that they are trying to demonstrate? If so, where is an English language version of this theory so that we may look over?
Do they adequately consider winds, ocean currents, clouds, convection, conduction, advection, rain, storms, planetary motion, the effect of gravitation upon the mass of the atmosphere, variations is the output of the sun, and at least a dozen other factors I have seen mentioned in various places? Perhaps they do, but how would I know for sure?
Has any group used the mega funds of government to run a model based on a theory other than the prevailing one of CO2 dominated back-radiation warming the surface? What if the present consensus is wrong? The only thing I know for sure is that the current consensus and the current models appear to be giving wrong results. Perhaps looking in another direction is warranted?
Reply to markstoval
“[…] The only thing I know for sure is that the current consensus and the current models appear to be giving wrong results. Perhaps looking in another direction is warranted?“
When it comes to climate models, we would be wise to avert our eyes. Studies have shown that prolonged gazing at a spaghetti graph of climate model ensembles reduces visual acuity by 38% and lowers the I.Q. by 42 full points.
Links? Why should I provide links to the studies? People would just try to find something wrong with them ;o)
Reply to H.R.
n.n
Climate philosophy, including models, is potentially science when constrained to a limited but variable frame of reference (i.e. scientific domain) in both time and space, where phenomena can observed, reproduced, and characterized through deduction.
The innovation of the scientific method, that acknowledges the chaotic (i.e. incompletely or insufficient characterized and unwieldy) nature of the system, was to establish a firm separation of science and other logical domains: philosophy, faith, and fantasy. Theories will be first classified as philosophy until they are evaluated in the scientific domain. Any theory where there does not exist a probable path from philosophy to the scientific domain is either an article of faith or fantasy. The liberal use of inference (aka “post-normal science”), including simulation models in climate “science”, is the creation of knowledge, rather than its observation.
There is much to criticize in climate models, so why come up with this sort of nonsense? With respect to the lower panel of Figure 1, the author asks “how is it possible for the lower panel uncertainty bars to be so large”. It is because they are calculated with the implicit assumption of infinite climate sensitivity. But that is wrong. What happens is that if more radiation reaches the surface, then it warms up and more radiation is emitted to space. As a result, the errors do not add up randomly.
When you here someone blithely claim that measurements have “no physical meaning”, you should suspect that you are listening to a windbag.
Reply to Mike M.
Re: You at 2:54pm today: “… measurements have ‘no physical meaning’, … ”
I looked for that quote in Dr. Frank’s post and could not find it (were you quoting someone else?).
I found this in paragraph 4:
“… projections of future global air temperatures make them predictively useless. In other words, they have no physical meaning.” Dr. Pat Frank
“This post will show that hindcasts of historically recent global air temperature trends also have no physical meaning”. Oops. I screwed up and somehow conflated that with the people who make all sorts of ridiculous criticisms of the observed record. Pat Frank did not do that. So by misquoting him, I undermined my credibility. I hate it when I do that. Especially when my basic point was right anyway.
Dear Mike M.,
By promptly and completely admitting your error, your credibility is completely intact. And your character was polished up a bit, too!
And if your basic point was that the IPCC’s GCM’s are junk: I agree!
Mike M, “[the uncertainty bars] are calculated with the implicit assumption of infinite climate sensitivity.”
Rather, they’re calculated using a successful GCM emulator; one that shows GCM air temperature projections are mere linear extrapolations of GHG forcing.
The essay is about the behavior of climate models, not about the climate.
How you conceive of these two sentences, “What happens is that if more radiation reaches the surface, then it warms up and more radiation is emitted to space. As a result, the errors do not add up randomly.” as a logical sequitur is anyone’s guess.
There was nothing “blithe” about my claim. It’s all analytically justified (2.9 MB pdf). And the propagated error is systematic, not random.
Pat Frank,
I gave you too much credit. You don’t even know elementary statistics. Random errors propagate as the root-mean-square.
Random errors decrease as 1/sqrtN.
Centinel2012
Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
And I agree 100% there is no science in any aspect of of the AGW!
stevek
The models do not provide a robust measurement system. The variance is too high. I mean high compared to observed variance of historical temperatures.
Obviously such variance means the scientists do not agree with each other. They may claim to agree but their results prove mathematically that in reality they do not agree. Claiming that they agree is just being nice to each other, but means nothing mathematically. Their nice words are logically inconsistent with their theories.
Chris Hanley
The models are an art form.
A prerequisite of the model projections is that they must all show some warming, after all that’s the raison d’état for the IPCC.
It’s no accident that the projected warming range is from the barely credible without being risible, to the not quite ignorable.
jimheath
Really enjoyed the story of Parkes Radio Telescope. The Alien signals turned out to be the microwave in the kitchen cooking the odd pie. When will we learn the short sighted thermometer reader breathes on the thermometer bulb. Can’t wait.
Reply to jimheath
Invasion of the Mouth Breathers.
We have models which are a complex circular argument in disguise. That is all.
Well really! Such gratuitous abuse, next you’ll be claiming Astrology isn’t a Science!
Here is the latest definition of science, which seems pretty good:
Science is the pursuit of knowledge and understanding of the natural and social world following a systematic methodology based on evidence.
Astrology fails this test. The definition makes no mention of unique solutions or that model simulations are outside of science.
You provide a definition of science you like then say
The definition makes no mention of unique solutions or that model simulations are outside of science.
Which demonstrates you don’t have a clue what you are talking about.
That’s an impressive argument Richard.
The head post makes a demarcation argument, and excludes from science any analyses that don’t provide “unique solutions” or include multiple model simulations.
I’m just pointing out that the head post definition of science contradicts the most widely held ideas about science. In fact, I would speculate that besides you and Pat, almost no one else on earth has this very extremely narrow definition of science.
One can discuss the definitions of science and disagree but Richard’s understanding of science is surely spot-on in one field of science – engineering. Since ultimately the issue is of climate engineering then this strict understanding of science would be applicable. After all, would anyone build a bridge or a house in the same way climatologists build their ‘science’?
Yes, but not sure if you understand the narrowness of the head post definition. One, many engineering disciplines use computer model simulations to do their work, and to prevent Tacoma Narrows type situations. I know I did as an aerospace generator engineer.
Two, according to his strict definition, engineering (applied science), along with medicine (applied epidemiology / biology), are not sciences. Engineers do not form hypotheses and perform falsification experiments.
According to the widely held science council definition, engineers and doctors are doing science. According to the head post, they are not. As Peter Ward explained above, the head post definition essentially excludes everything except basic chemistry and physics.
VikingExplorer, guess what “… based on evidence” means in terms of measurement and prediction. That might (might) lead you to discover a conjunction between evidence and accuracy.
Perhaps you will wonder at a connection, if any, between accuracy and answer. You may then explore how one determines limits of accuracy, and whether, to do so, one needs a strictly bounded solution. But then again, you may not.
Reasoning sequentially through is the mechanism necessary to rise above arguing from authority. Which latter is all you’ve done here.
wickedwenchfan
Bravo! One could also add that models assume a “greenhouse gas” as being real, when there is no compelling evidence to confirm it.
Reply to wickedwenchfan
wwf, there’s no doubt that the radiation physics of CO2 is correct.
CO2 absorbs the 15 micron radiation from the warm surface, and dumps it off into the kinetic energy of the atmosphere.
The central question is how the climate responds to that kinetic energy. Climate models assume there’s only one response: atmospheric warming. But the real climate has many response channels. If a different one of them dominates (such as convection), there may be no detectible warming at all from extra CO2.
So far, given the completely unremarkable behavior of the climate over the last 50 years, the latter eventuality seems much more likely.
Pat wrote: “The central question is how the climate responds to that kinetic energy.”
CO2 both absorbs and emits outgoing OLR (and DLR). The net result of both processes is that about 3.7 W/m2 less radiation will reach space when CO2 has doubled IF nothing else changed. There is no doubt that the earth MUST respond by warming until it emits an addition 3.7 W/m2 – restoring radiative equilibrium. Radiation is the only way for energy to enter and exit the planet. The central question is how much will the planet need to warm to emit an additional 3.7 W/m2. If the earth behaved like a blackbody, the answer is about 1.2 degC. Satellites show that OLR from clear skies increases less than about 1 W/m2 less than expected per degC of warming from changes in water vapor and lapse rate (two of your response channels). There is no doubt that surface albedo will decrease somewhat due to changes in snow and ice cover. The answer to the central question mostly depends on clouds.
Collisional decay of CO2* is about 10^5 times faster than radiative decay, at 1 atmosphere pressure, Frank. Collisional decay dominates the relaxation of CO2* throughout the entire troposphere. Radiative decay of CO2* is virtually absent. It doesn’t contribute anything to tropospheric warmth, or to loss of energy from the troposphere to space. (It does dominate in the stratosphere, where the gas is too dilute to give collisional decay much probability.)
The “back radiation” everyone talks about is not 15 micron radiation from decay of CO2*. It’s black body radiation. The kinetic energy resulting from CO2* collisional decay is heat, and shows up as slightly increased tropospheric black body radiation, which of course radiates equally up and down. Black body radiation and kinetic energy are different manifestations of the same thing: thermal energy.
Your comment that, “There is no doubt that the earth MUST respond by warming…” is not correct in its insistence on warming.
It’s true that the extra energy (kinetic or black body) must be removed to restore energetic equilibrium. But TOA radiative loss can just as easily be through the latent heat of water vapor condensation in the upper atmosphere. Tropical precipitation need increase by only a couple percent to achieve that effect. There need be no perceptible increase in tropospheric sensible heat at all. If convection dominates the climatic response to the kinetic energy deposited into the troposphere by CO2*, loss of energy through latent heat of condensation is likely the dominant outcome.
The physical theory of climate has nowhere near the resolution to decide which climate response channel will dominate in removing the excess energy. That’s why your insistence on warming has no weight. Earth may indeed warm from CO2. Or it may just as well not. No one knows. So far, there’s zero evidence that it has.
Pat: You and I agree that radiation is not trapped by GHGs. Collisional excitation and relaxation of the vibrational excited states of GHGs is much faster than absorption and emission throughout the troposphere AND most of the stratosphere (local thermodynamic equilibrium). Emission of OLR (to space) and DLR is controlled by local temperature, not local radiation. Climate models and radiative transfer calculations (MODTRAN) are based on this assumption.
Pat wrote: “But TOA radiative loss can just as easily be through the latent heat of water vapor condensation in the upper atmosphere. Tropical precipitation need increase by only a couple percent to achieve that effect. There need be no perceptible increase in tropospheric sensible heat at all. If convection dominates the climatic response to the kinetic energy deposited into the troposphere by CO2*, loss of energy through latent heat of condensation is likely the dominant outcome.”
Latent heat obviously can not escape directly to space, it is first converted to simply heat by condensation and then to radiation (by collisional excitation of CO2 and other GHGs). The altitude where condensation occurs is warmer than it would be without latent heat and therefore emits more OLR and DLR than it would have otherwise.
The surface of the earth would be cooler if latent heat were transferred faster by convection from the surface to the upper troposphere (where most photons escaping to space are emitted). However, latent heat can only escape faster when the upper troposphere is warmer. Spontaneous buoyancy-driven convection develops only when the rate of cooling with altitude (lapse rate) is greater than a critical threshold, so convection shuts down when the upper atmosphere get too warm through convection. Increasing humidity decreases the lapse rate (lapse rate feedback), allowing the upper atmosphere to warm more rapidly than the surface and more OLR to escape for a given rise in surface temperature. Water vapor feedback does the opposite. Instruments in space tell us how much OLR through clear skies varies with surface temperature, i.e. the combined effects of water vapor and lapse rate feedback. Observations agree with climate models that a 1.2 degC rise in surface temperature produces a 2.5 W/m2 increase in OLR, not the 3.7 W/m2 increase expected for a blackbody.
Pat wrote: “The physical theory of climate has nowhere near the resolution to decide which climate response channel will dominate in removing the excess energy. That’s why your insistence on warming has no weight. Earth may indeed warm from CO2. Or it may just as well not. No one knows. So far, there’s zero evidence that it has.”
We do know some things about how “excess energy” will be removed. 1) It will be by radiation to space. 2) Physics tells us that an instantaneous doubling of CO2 will reduce OLR by about 3.7 W/m2. It also tells us that a blackbody emitting 236.3 W/m2 will need to warm 1.2 degC to radiate 240 W/m2 (equal to post-albedo incoming SWR). 3) OBSERVATIONS tell us how our climate responds to surface warming* by increasing OLR through clear skies to space. See Figure 1B in http://www.pnas.org/content/110/19/7568.full.pdf The dotted line shows how a blackbody would behave. Notice the remarkably small error bars for climate science. Climate models are correct about OLR from clear skies. The rest of the paper shows that climate models are horrible at modeling the OLR response to surface warming from cloudy skies and the SWR response from clear (surface albedo) and cloudy skies (cloud albedo). 4) Common sense tells us that warming will reduce surface albedo (ice albedo feedback). 5) We don’t know how clouds will respond.
* In this paper, surface warming is not “global warming”. Surface warming is “seasonal warming” associated with the asymmetric distribution of land (low heat capacity) and ocean (high heat capacity) between the hemispheres. (GMST does increase 3.5 degK every northern summer, but we eliminate this seasonal change when we calculate temperature anomalies.) Seasonal warming has limitations as a model for GW, but climate models should get both right. Seasonal changes in SWR from clear skies have little to do with the surface albedo feedback that will follow global warming (aka ice-albedo feedback).
An excellent post, thank you. The same conclusion is accessible from information theory which forms the basis of our modern communication infrastructure. It is an axiomatic premise of that discipline that information gain can only occur when a contingency is resolved – that is to say, we can only lean something when we are surprised by a result. The contingency created by running a model of some physical system whose parameters are under-constrained is illustrated beautifully by the model output-plots in this article. But the information gain required to increase our knowledge can only be obtained when that contingency is resolved into a particular evolution that matches experimental data. And while a given set of parameters yields a particular model-state evolution, the only information gained in that “experiment” is about the model itself! No information about the physical world can be conveyed by running a computer simulation, no matter how complex. Either the model is perfectly constrained and thus the outcome certain before the operator hits the run button or under-constrained in which case the outcome is determined completely by the parameter values guessed at by the programmer.
Feynman diagnosed the problem long ago:
“There is a computer disease that anybody who works with computers knows about. It’s a very serious disease and it interferes completely with the work. The trouble with computers is that you ‘play’ with them!”
Crispin in Waterloo
@Pat Frank
This is a very interesting analysis and from what little I know about the Monte Carlo methods used in climate modelling, I know enough to ask what type of Monte Carlo method is being used. Is it applying a Monte Carlo method or making a Monte Carlo simulation, for example. Basically you are saying they treat all possible outcomes as valid. I am not suggesting they are equally valid, just that I understand you are saying they are all treated as equally valid possibilities. There are Monte Carlo methods that do not treat all outcomes as equally likely, informed either by past records of variation, or models of the frequency of the input values for that dimension (freedom to vary).
Well, if they are considered equally valid, there are problems because at the limits of any known set of dimensions of the climate, the likelihood of a set of all dimensions being simultaneously ‘at the limits’ becomes increasingly unlikely to the point of being a ‘rare event’ which would normally be ignored. Are they doing that? Ignoring possible ‘rare events’? (which has a definition)
An alarmist will argue that a rare event must be catered for, like a 200 year storm, or a 2000 year storm, or an extinction event. But as Monckton points out, catering to manage a rare event has a cost and the probability is so low it will be cheaper and more progressive for society in general to cope rather than ‘prevent’, as if ‘prevention’ is possible in the first place.
What your article confirms for me is that the average of a bunch of model outputs (a questionable procedure in the first place) is dependent for alarming content on the existence of high-end predictions from the likes of the Canadian simulator in British Columbia which is the second hottest-running of all models. If they eliminated the worst and most off-the-mark models, the central estimate would drop considerably and be un-alarming. So we know where that is coming from.
They need these ‘equal treatment and equally possible’ limits on each dimensions of each simulation and all the manifestly hot-running models to maintain the fiction that the average of an estimated future world is hot, very hot, unless we have over the keys to the global energy economy.
Exposing the math of the models is a good plan. What can’t work, won’t work. What can’t predict, won’t predict.
Arno Arrak
Finally someone who notices that the emperor has no clothes on. I have always regarded these model results as nonsense. They are made possible by giving these incompetents nice toys like supercomputers for free so they can pretend to do research. Without supercomputers this stupidity could not exist. In the sixties we did not have supercomputers. We did not even have computers for spectrochemical calculations and simply used graph paper. Direct readers were just coming in but they went to large steel or aluminum producers, not aerospace where I worked. The concept of throwing out hundreds or thousands of attempted graphs was foreign to me until I accidentally started doing climate research. I have called for abandonment of the entire climate modeling enterprise for the simple reason that in 27 years of trying they have never produced any meaningful predictions. That goes for everyone including Hansen whose first attempt in 1988 to predict global temperature was a disaster. Close down the operation and fire the operators. It can be done. Nixon fired ten thousand lunar lander workers for nothing when he cancelled the last three moon shots.
Reply to Arno Arrak
“Nixon fired ten thousand lunar lander workers for nothing when he cancelled the last three moon shots.”
To pay for war…
Eager Grant Seeker -- willing to write anything for funding!
I happened to notice the following comment posted at the prestigious website “skeptical science” a couple days ago:
“The IPCC has been quoted as saying ‘The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days.’ However, they assert that ‘when weather is averaged over space and time, the fact that the globe is warming emerges clearly…’
“This means IPCC climatologists fully understand that predicting weather beyond a few days with a computer model is exactly as effective as predicting it with, say, chicken entrails.
“Knowing this, they go ahead and consult their entrails, examining them carefully to learn what the weather might be like in 50 years, if only entrails had predictive value.
“But since they know this is silly, they don’t stop there. They go on to examine the entrails of a MILLION chickens. They average the results of the million chicken-entrails predictions together and, voila, pronounce the result ‘scientific.’
“It is amazing what nonsense people will allow themselves to believe.”
The scientistical skeptics at “skeptical science” were not about to let this so-called “argument” stand without a withering logical counterattack. No ma’am!
Mustering all the facts and logic and computer models at their disposal, they immediately responded…
… by deleting the post. Because it consists of “…worn-out sloganeering, strawmen, and argumentative language” that their readers should not have to see.
They went on to explain:
“If you are not prepared to read the actual science with view to understanding, then you are in no position to comment on it. Commentators here have attempted to explain the difference between weather and climate what is predictable or not, but apparently to no avail. … Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive or off-topic posts.”
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?p=3&t=116&&a=227#111619
That pretty much nails it. Nothing could be more persuasive.
I share their words of logic and wisdom with all of you WUWT readers so that you will recognize the obvious folly of your beliefs. Repent, you heretics!
Reply to Eager Grant Seeker -- willing to write anything for funding!
SkS is a waste of time. Just stay away. If they are interested in a debate they can come here.
Andy May
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Rapid Application Group Doubles Capacity with Figure 4 Standalone
by: WB Engineering
in: 3D Printing
Terry Hill is a U.S. veteran and entrepreneur who was so convinced of the value of additive manufacturing that he resigned from his job after the Army to prove its potential. In 2017 he founded Rapid Application Group, LLC, out of his home office. Since opening its doors, the company has grown exponentially, experiencing 300% growth in its second year to become one of Oklahoma’s fastest growing companies.
Rapid Application Group is a full production additive manufacturing service bureau providing mission-critical and time-sensitive support to customers in the oil, gas, motorsports, healthcare and aerospace and defense sectors. Based in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, the service bureau has over 25 years of collective experience in additive manufacturing and is a subject matter expert in Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), MultiJet Printing (MJP) and Direct Metal Printing (DMP) with supplemental access to a complete range of additive manufacturing technologies through 3D Systems On Demand. Prior to founding Rapid Application Group, Hill spent 13 years in the U.S. Army as an engineer and aviator, and Rapid Application Group is a certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business.
Figure 4 TOUGH-GRY 15 material delivers exceptional surface quality that rivals traditional mold manufacturing.
Given the incredible growth of the business, Hill began looking for a cost-effective way to increase his production capacity. He cites the purchase of 3D Systems’ Figure 4™ technology as a game-changing decision for the success of his business. In addition to ease of operation and the ability to produce fast, reliable output at low cost, Figure 4 Standalone paid for itself and doubled Rapid Application Group’s production capacity for high quality small parts in just a few months.
Figure 4 Standalone delivers ROI within months of installation
Rapid Application Group’s Terry Hill reports ease-of-use is “10/10” for Figure 4 Standalone and 3D Sprint.
Rapid Application Group’s motivation behind purchasing the Figure 4 Standalone was driven by the desire to cost-effectively increase capacity while maintaining part quality. In selecting which machine to bring on, Hill looked at speed-to-market, repeatability, part surface finish, and system cost. After seeing Figure 4 at the Rapid + TCT trade show, Hill said his decision was a “no brainer.” According to Hill, the things that first impressed him about the machine were how compact, powerful and moveable it was. “I wanted something that I could possibly move into a different area or add onto,” he says. “It was an easy purchase decision.”
Within a few hours of unboxing, Rapid Application Group was up and running. Figure 4 can be calibrated to achieve the tolerance requirements for six sigma repeatability.
“The repeatability of Figure 4 is a big deal for me,” says Hill. “I know that I can load a file and walk away, and when I come back the parts will be exactly like the print before, which is critical to maintaining our quality standards and production schedules. The Figure 4 Standalone doubled our capacity on highly detailed small parts and paid for itself within a matter of months.”
Fast and easy 3D printing, high quality production parts
The ability to quickly and easily start new prints is important across applications and industries, but it directly impacts the bottom line in the service bureau environment. The time and complexity of every stage affects overall productivity, from receiving and quoting parts to fixing files, sending parts to print, and ensuring quality. “Of all the technologies we have in the company, Figure 4 Standalone is by far the easiest and fastest to use,” Hill says. “Coupled with 3D Sprint, it delivers the perfect storm of repeatability and has completely opened capacity inside the company.”
With Figure 4 Standalone, Rapid Application Group is able to produce high quality parts with shorter lead times than ever before. Once a print is complete, achieving a final part is a simple process of removing supports, rinsing the part, and running it through a cycle in the UV curing station. “When I receive a file first thing in the morning, it can be on the printer by lunch, and I can have a part in hand within 30-45 minutes,” Hill says. A comparable part would take nearly seven hours on other systems.
Rapid Application Group uses 3D Sprint to prepare files for all of its 3D printers.
3D Sprint workflow keeps production in motion across systems
3D Sprint includes a wide range of tools that facilitate the 3D printing process from start to finish. From file manipulation, quality control and file preparation to print management, Hill says the speed and ease of the 3D Sprint workflow has helped Rapid Application Group shrink the time it takes to provide quotes to customers and send jobs to the machine. “All of the different functionalities of 3D Sprint plus the ability to send files to the printer without having to physically transfer them with a thumb drive has really accelerated our operation,” he says.
The additive manufacturing software also helps Rapid Application Group fast track necessary file repairs by identifying and offering solutions to potential problem areas within files. “It’s a great tool to keep our production flow moving,” Hill says.
The algorithm-based Smart Supports tool offers the option to generate support structures that minimize material usage while optimizing placement. It is also possible to override Smart Supports and assign structures manually: “3D Sprint gives you that latitude. I can do almost everything I need to in 3D Sprint,” Hill says.
Due to the ease and speed of the 3D Sprint workflow, Rapid Application Group uses the software to prepare files for all of its 3D printers, with the added benefit that it allows quick shifts from one 3D Systems printer to another. “Ease-of-use is ten out of ten,” Hill says. He has also found it very easy to teach other operators, which has facilitated new user training.
Final parts can be printed on Figure 4 Standalone in minutes versus hours.
Injection-molded surface quality with Figure 4 TOUGH-GRY 15 material
According to Hill, the surface quality of Figure 4 parts is so comparable to injection-molded parts that several of his customers have asked him to clarify the production process upon delivery. “I’ve had customers tell me it looked like we injection molded parts that were actually printed,” Hill says. “In surface quality, strength characteristics and speed of parts delivery, Figure 4 Standalone has helped us excel. It’s like 3D Systems took an injection molding machine and stuffed it into a two-by-two foot space.”
For example, Rapid Application Group worked with a medical device company to produce a new version of a component that was continually breaking and causing maintenance issues with routine use. Rapid Application Group 3D printed the new component using Figure 4 Standalone and Figure 4 TOUGH-GRY 15 material and subjected it to a series of qualification tests. Although specifications required the component be able to withstand a seven-foot drop, Hill took things a step further and instead launched the parts into the dry wall in his workshop: “The parts embedded into the dry wall and came back out completely intact,” he says.
Using Figure 4, Rapid Application Group was able to secure a sole-source contract with the medical device company to provide these improved parts. As for the device company, maintenance on the machine that incorporates the 3D printed part has been reduced substantially, enabling it to extend its warranty. “It’s been a huge success for everyone,” Hill says.
Opening a full production additive manufacturing service bureau
Hill was first exposed to additive manufacturing in 2015 when he invented the Hill Helmet mount for U.S. flight helmets as a research pilot at the Aeromedical Research Laboratory. The lab was outfitted with a small 3D printer that Hill says made the proverbial light bulb go off: “From my first interaction with AM, I knew it was something that I needed to be a part of,” he says.
Once out of the Army, Hill was selected to serve as director of business development for a global aerospace company where he program managed the implementation of additive manufacturing, robotic welding and automation. He identified additive manufacturing as the stepping stone capability the company needed to move from where it was to where it wanted to be, but due to timing and finances, the program was not pursued. However, Hill’s confidence in the technology did not waver. He resigned from the company to found Rapid Application Group.
Today Rapid Application Group supports high- and low-volume production parts across a complete range of additive technologies. It is a certified Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business, with additional HUBzone, ITAR, and NaVOBA certifications, and is AS9100D/ ISO9001 compliant, with anticipated certification in Q1 2019. With fast and continuing success, Hill says Rapid Application Group does not exist to compete with other manufacturing businesses, but is instead a company of helpers. “We are here to provide capacity immediately through additive manufacturing,” he says.
Figure 4 Standalone produces fast, reliable, high quality 3D printed parts.
Transforming lives for veterans with 3D printing
Hill’s vision goes beyond answering the needs of his customers to answering the needs of his fellow veterans. After leaving the Army, Hill was challenged with transitioning back to civilian life. Through his business he saw an opportunity to help fellow veterans reestablish themselves and has started a Veterans to Additive Manufacturing certification program to train veterans with marketable skills.
The Veterans to Additive Manufacturing program is a structured curriculum offered to veterans that covers conceptual and practical topics across the complete AM part production workflow, from loading printers to quality control. Hill says the drive to help others is a part of him that he felt intrinsically connected to while in the Army, and which he seeks to keep active in civilian life. The education program is designed to help veterans get marketable job skills that they can continue to use within Rapid Application Group or take with them elsewhere based on their goals. Hill has also established a Fundamentals of Additive Manufacturing Certificate for local high school students and troubled youth. “We have a corporate responsibility to care for the next generation and plant the seed for innovation through additive manufacturing,” Hill says.
Hill has even used additive manufacturing to help the four-legged friends that help him. Using the Figure 4 3D printer and Figure 4 TOUGH-GRY 15 material, Hill coordinated with other organizations to design and deliver a prosthetic leg for his service dog’s sister, Honor. Stationed at the Veterans Association, Honor had difficulty getting around due to damage to her back left paw. The durability and surface finish of the Figure 4 material made it the right match for the application, and the speed of the Figure 4 system limited the time Honor would be away from the veterans who missed her.
“I think our drive to help others is one of the reasons Rapid Application Group is growing so quickly,” Hill says. “I’ve never believed in wishing things were different, but I will absolutely put in the work that’s required for change.”
Source https://3dsystems.com
Technology used:
WB Engineering
WB Engineering is a product design company located in Miami, Florida. We assist our clients in consolidating their product development and design cycles. At WB Engineering, we specialize in creating products optimized for better functionality, manufacturability, and profitability.
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Mail: Contact@wb-3d.com
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Sanctuary Cities Protected By Judge Who Says President’s Executive Order Is Inconsistent With Law
BY Lucas Molandes | April 25, 2017 AT 4:47 pm
By Lucas Molandes April 25, 2017 at 4:47 pm
GAGE SKIDMORE / KAYSHA / FLICKR
The productivity of President Trump’s first 100 days has come into question quite a bit recently. While it has been an eventful time for the young administration, it has also been served many political defeats. Today, Trump’s administration faced another setback as an executive order that would deny federal funding to sanctuary cities was temporarily blocked, Politico reports. The decision came after both San Francisco and Santa Clara filed lawsuits against President Trump’s executive orders.
According to The New York Times, the latest injunction was handed down by William Orrick, a Judge from United States District Court for the Northern District of California.
Federal judge blocks the Trump administration from enforcing a threat to take away funds from sanctuary cities. https://t.co/vYdvkMjEgh pic.twitter.com/Ujm2cYldcL
— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) April 25, 2017
According to Judge Orrick, the scope of the executive order, which would penalize cities that protect their undocumented population, had a broader reach than federal law allows, the Washington Post reports. In short, the President cannot withhold federal funds from sanctuary cities, because the funds were not allocated by Congress under these conditions in the first place.
According to Politico, Judge Orrick released a statement on the issue, saying that comments from both President Trump and Attorney General Sessions would violate the conditions set by congress as it relates to allocating funds. Adding:
If there was doubt about the scope of the Order, the President and Attorney General have erased it with their public comments. The Constitution vests the spending power in Congress, not the President, so the Order cannot constitutionally place new conditions on federal funds.
According to the Washington Post, Judge Orrick doubled down on his opinion, saying:
The defunding provision is entirely inconsistent with law in its stated purpose and directives because it instructs the Attorney General and the Secretary to do something that only Congress has the authority to do–place new conditions on federal funds.
The Washington Post also mentions that many of the preexisting grants have no ties to conditions based on immigration or law enforcement.
Some pro-Trump people feel the judge’s interpretation goes too far.
@foxnewspolitics This is getting ridiculous already. How can these judges do this? Sanctuary Cities are against the law. These are real judges? Really?
— LaDeplorable (@raquelita44) April 25, 2017
Their main argument is that sanctuary cities protect criminals, or that because Judge Orrick was appointed by former President Obama, that his motives are likely biased.
Others pointed out that the judge was well within his jurisdiction.
POTUS doesn't get to interpret the Constitution.
Federal judges are vested with that power and they say #sanctuarycities are here to stay!
— Vinay A. Ramesh (@vinaytion) April 25, 2017
However, the injunction doesn’t completely prevent President Trump from enacting future measures from targeting sanctuary cities.
Federal judge rules Trump cannot punish sanctuary cities by withholding funds https://t.co/p7l8w95XHO pic.twitter.com/S6uzQLQVra
— ABC News Radio (@ABCNewsRadio) April 25, 2017
The point of contention for Judge Orrick is that President Trump is trying to rewrite, or undermine current laws that were enacted by Congress. If the President could do this, the Washington Post points out, he could use excessive power to force cities into unlawful compromises. Moving forward, the government still has the power to designate cities as sanctuary cities, putting them in the crosshairs of future legislation. And, as it sees fit, the government can still determine whether or not a city can receive funding if that city is in violation of preexisting legal conditions.
[h/t] Washington Post: Federal court rules against Trump’s executive order targeting sanctuary cities
READ: President Trumps Deportation Demands Are Putting ICE And Border Patrol Into Compromising Positions
Donald Trump Sanctuary City
Mexico’s AMLO Wants To Launch New Social Media Network For Mexicans After Twitter Banned Trump
By Justin Lessner January 20, 2021 at 12:17 pm
BY Justin Lessner | January 20, 2021 AT 12:17 pm
Hector Vivas / Getty Images
Love him or hate him, Mexico’s President Andres Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has long called himself the voice of the people – and many Mexicans agree with him. That’s why his latest announcement against social media companies has many so worried.
In the wake of Twitter and Facebook’s (along with many other social media platforms) announcement that they would be restricting or banning Donald Trump from their platforms, the Mexican president expressed his contempt for the decisions. And his intention to create a Mexican social network that won’t be held to the standards from Silicon Valley.
Mexico’s AMLO moves to create a social media network for Mexicans outside of Silicon Valley’s control.
The newspaper Milenio offered these graphics for possible Mexican alternatives to the big social media networks.
Facebookóatl? AMLO moves to create social media network for Mexicans@Facebook and #Twitter have become 'global institutions of censorship'https://t.co/ATwqrk5li7 pic.twitter.com/XGftiTEAS6
— Caribbean disaster (@BagalueSunab) January 16, 2021
A week after his United States counterpart was kicked off Facebook and Twitter, President López Obrador floated the idea of creating a national social media network to avoid the possibility of Mexicans being censored.
Speaking at his daily news conference, AMLO instructed the National Council of Science and Technology (Conacyt) and other government departments to look at the possibility of creating a state-owned social media site that would guarantee freedom of speech in Mexico.
“We care about freedom a lot, it’s an issue that’s going to be addressed by us,” he told reporters. He also added that Facebook and Twitter have become “global institutions of censorship,” sounding a lot like the alt-right terrorists that stormed the U.S. Capitol.
“To guarantee freedom, for freedom, so there’s no censorship in Mexico. We want a country without censorship. Mexico must be a country of freedom. This is a commitment we have,” he told reporters.
AMLO deeply criticized the moves by Twitter and Facebook to ban Trump from their platforms.
Credit: Hector Vivas / Getty Images
AMLO – like Trump – is an avid user of social media to connect with his constituents. He’s also been known to spread falsehoods and boast about his achievements on the platforms – sound familiar?
So, it came as little surprise when he tore into social media companies for ‘censoring’ Donald Trump, saying that they have turned into “global institutions of censorship” and are carrying out a “holy inquisition.”
Nobody has the right to silence citizens even if their views are unpopular, López Obrador said. Even if the words used by Trump provoked a violent attack against his own government.
“Since they took these decisions [to suspend Trump], the Statue of Liberty has been turning green with anger because it doesn’t want to become an empty symbol,” he quipped.
So what could a Mexican social media network be called?
The president’s proposal to create a national social media network triggered chatter about what such a site would or should be called. One Twitter user suggested Facemex or Twitmex, apparently taking his inspiration from the state oil company Pemex.
The newspaper Milenio came up with three alternative names and logos for uniquely Mexican sites, suggesting that a Mexican version of Facebook could be called Facebookóatl (inspired by the Aztec feathered-serpent god Quetzalcóatl), Twitter could become Twitterlopochtli (a riff on the name of Aztec war, sun and human deity Huitzilopochtli) and Instagram could become Instagratlán (tlán, which in the Náhuatl language means place near an abundance of something – deer, for example, in the case of Mazatlán – is a common suffix in Mexican place names.)
AMLODonald TrumpMexicoSocial MediaTwitter
What Is the 25th Amendment and What Does it Do?: A Primer
By Andrea Reindl January 8, 2021 at 8:46 am
BY Andrea Reindl | January 8, 2021 AT 8:46 am
via Getty Images
So in case you missed it, some crazy stuff went down at the Capitol yesterday. A mob of far-right Trump supporters broke into the Capitol building in “protest” of Congress ratifying President Elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College votes.
The heinous episode shocked and rattled many Americans. After months of inflammatory rhetoric, President Trump effectively activated his base into violent and treasonous actions. And people are upset.
Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have since called for Trump’s resignation. But knowing President Trump, it isn’t likely that he’s going to do that.
Because of that, lawmakers have reportedly been having talks to discuss invoking the 25th Amendment.
NEW: I am sending a letter with @RepTedLieu and our colleagues on the House Judiciary Committee, calling on Vice President Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Donald Trump from office after today’s events. pic.twitter.com/5VK8DLTLn4
— David Cicilline (@davidcicilline) January 7, 2021
The 25th Amendment has four sections that dictate what will happen in the event of an acting president being unable to carry out the duties of office. These events have usually amounted to…colonoscopies (no, really). But this time around, lawmakers are looking to the fourth section of the amendment to remove Trump from office. And this is where the wording gets super lawyer-y.
Section Four the 25th Amendment states:
“Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.”
Translation: The Vice President, Trump’s cabinet, the Senate leader, and the Speaker of the House would all have to agree to ousting Trump.
It’s a little complicated, so let’s break it down. Vice President Pence and the majority (11 out of 23) of Trump’s cabinet would have to agree that he is unfit for office. Then, they must submit a written request to the “President pro Tempore” of the Senate (who is Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley) as well as the Speaker of the House (California Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi).
Why is Trump still in power?
Why hasn’t Pence used the 25th Amendment against Trump?
Why hasn’t Congress impeached Trump?
What more are they waiting for him to do?
— Mona Eltahawy (@monaeltahawy) January 8, 2021
But wait, that’s not all. As soon as this motion is enacted, President Trump would be able to contest that decision (which he most definitely would). In that case, VP Mike Pence, Senator Grassley, and Congresswoman Pelosi would have to re-draft another statement insisting that he is, indeed, unfit for office.
Then, two-thirds of both the Senate and the House of Representatives would have to agree with their decision.
Only then would Trump be permanently removed from the presidency.
The 25th Amendment is ready for times like this.
— Charles Booker (@Booker4KY) January 8, 2021
So, yeah…a lot of steps. But there’s a good reason for that. If removing a president from office were easy, it would be done a lot more often and our democracy would be a lot shakier.
Remember relentlessly hearing about the “checks and balances” of our government in elementary school? This is what our teachers were talking about. A lot of different people in different parts of the government have to sign-off on hard decisions so we can all make sure every action is justified and reasonable.
25th AmendmentCapitol Hillcapitol riotsDonald TrumpMike PenceNancy Pelosi
Here Are The Executive Actions That President Biden Is Signing His First Day In Office BY Jorge Rodriguez-Jimenez
Black Class Is Back! Kamala Harris Wore Monochrome For Sonia Sotomayor Swearing-In Ceremony BY Cristal Mesa
Latino Congressman Lou Correa Fights Back at Insurrectionist Trump Supporters Who Harassed Him at a D.C. Airport
Andrea Reindl / January 12, 2021 Andrea Reindl
After Last Week’s Riots, A Black Woman Has Been Appointed to U.S. Capitol Police Chief
Cristal Mesa / January 12, 2021 Cristal Mesa
Trump Supporters Who Stormed The U.S. Capitol Are Learning That Their Actions Have Consequences
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Is Alice Pulling Manufacturing Patents Down the Rabbit Hole? (RECORDING)
Since Alice, most patent eligibility challenges (and the ongoing debate) have been related to software or bio-pharm patents. Even after Alice, most practitioners considered claims drawn to manufacturing tangible goods or incorporating physical components immune from patent eligibility challenges. But the recent decisions from the Federal Circuit in American Axle have put manufacturing, mechanical, and electrical patents at risk.
It is a fractured set of opinions that includes two split-panel decisions and an en banc denial with six separate concurring or dissenting opinions. The claims were drawn to methods of manufacturing propeller shafts with liners designed to damp vibrations. In the first panel decision, the majority affirmed the district court’s ruling that all claims were ineligible. In the revised panel decision, the majority remanded some claims that included a “positioning” step for further consideration. The dissent sharply criticized the majority’s analysis in both opinions. The court split 6-6 against en banc review of the revised opinion.
Our panelists will discuss how the Alice/Mayo test for patent eligibility are not being applied to method of manufacturing patents. Do these cases push the Alice/Mayo test too far? Do they further conflate patent eligibility with obviousness or enablement? And do they put manufacturing, mechanical, and electrical patents more at risk for eligibility challenges (and cancellation)? Join us as we discuss these cases and the current state of patent eligibility.
John Cheek
DRiV Incorporated
is Enterprise Chief Intellectual Property for Tenneco Inc., one of the world’s leading designers, manufacturers and distributors of clean air and ride performance products and systems for the automotive, commercial truck, and off-highway markets and the aftermarket. In addition to his enterprise role, Mr. Cheek also leads the IP group Tenneco’s DRiV division, which focuses on ride performance and aftermarket automotive parts. Prior to joining Tenneco in 2017, Mr. Cheek was senior IP leader at Caterpillar Inc., where he served in leadership roles in the US and Europe. Prior to joining Caterpillar in 1997, Mr. Cheek was in private practice. Mr. Cheek received an undergraduate degree in Mathematics and Economics from Wabash College and completed additional undergraduate studies in Physics and Mechanical Engineering at the University of Dayton and Bradley University. He also received a J.D. from the University of Dayton and an MBA from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He is a regular lecturer on intellectual property strategy and management at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and currently serves on the Executive Committee for ACPC and the Executive Committee and Board of Directors for IPO.
Timothy McAnulty
is a partnerat Finnegan, where he practices all aspects of patent law, includingdistrict court litigations, post-grant proceedings, due diligence, strategiccounseling, freedom-to-operate studies, opinion writing, and portfoliodevelopment. He represents clients across a wide range of technologies andworks closely with them to develop strategies aligned with their businessgoals.
Jeffrey Totten
is also a partner at Finnegan, where he focuses his practice on patent litigation, trade-secret litigation, and client counseling in the mechanical, electrical, and e-commerce fields. Jeff has represented clients in multiple U.S. district courts and before the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC). He has extensive experience managing litigation teams involved in complex intellectual-property disputes in the United States and abroad. Jeff, who co-chairs IPO’s Post-Grant Patent Office Practice Committee, also represents clients in matters before the U.S. Patent Office, including Inter Partes Review (IPR), Covered Business Method Review (CBM), and reexamination proceedings.
Evaluation Survey
4 Questions CLE credit will be available for registered attendees only. If you would like CLE credit for this webinar, please complete the following questions. IPO will apply for CLE for all live programs in the majority of the states that require CLE. IPO will not be applying for CLE in the states of Florida, Ohio, South Carolina, West Virginia, or Texas (attorneys in TX may submit up to 5 hours of self-study credit). Once IPO has received approval from the state(s) CLE boards , certificate(s) of attendance will be available for download from your dashboard.
CA Certificate of Attendance
Up to 1.00 CLE credits available | Certificate available
Up to 1.00 CLE credits available | Certificate available California has approved this course for 1 hour of CLE approval. Only registered attendees that viewed the course are eligible to claim credit. To claim your credit, select "Claim Credit" then "View/Print Certificate" for your records.
IL Certificate of Attendance
Up to 1.00 CLE credits available | Certificate available Illinois has approved this webinar for 1 hour of CLE credit. Only registered attendees that viewed the program are eligible to claim credit. To claim your credit, select “claim credits” and then “view/print your certificate” for your records.
NJ Certificate of Attendance
Up to 1.20 CLE credits available | Certificate available New Jersey has approved this webinar for 1 hour of CLE credit. Only registered attendees that viewed the program are eligible to claim credit. To claim your credit, select "claim credits" and then "view/print your certificate" for your records.
NY Certificate of Attendance
Up to 1.00 CLE credits available | Certificate available This course was approved in Virginia, a NY approved jurisdiction, for 1 hour of CLE credit. Only registered attendees that viewed the on-demand program are eligible to claim credit. To claim your credit, select “claim credits” and then “view/print your certificate” for your records.
VA Certificate of Attendance
Up to 1.00 CLE credits available | Certificate available Virginia has approved this webinar for 1 hour of CLE credit. Only registered attendees that viewed the program are eligible to claim credit. To claim your credit, select “claim credits” and then “view/print your certificate” for your records.
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Salary for a Closed Caption Reporting Job
By Rick Suttle
Court Stenographer Job Description
What Is a Stenotype Court Reporter?
How Much Does a News Reporter Earn Yearly?
Roles of a Courthouse Clerk
Salary Range for an Independent Contractor Web Designer
Closed caption reporting pertains to the translation of television broadcasting or movies into dialogue for the hearing impaired. The Bureau of Labor Statistics classifies closed caption reporters as broadcast captioners under the broader category of court reporters. Closed caption reporters transcribe broadcasts before or after they're aired and project them on screens. Most are highly experienced in stenography or keyboarding. Their salaries can vary, depending on where they work within the United States.
Salary Between $45,000 and $50,000
The BLS doesn't report salaries for television broadcasting closed caption reporters, but those in the movie and video industry averaged $45,090 as of May 2012. The minimum educational requirement for this job is typically a certificate or associate degree in court or broadcast captioning reporting. Many states also require closed caption reporters to become licensed or certified in broadcast captioning. This requires taking and passing both a written and skills test through the National Court Reporters Association. Other essential requirements are attention to detail and concentration, listening, writing and computer skills.
Earnings Highest in Local Government
While movie and video closed caption reporters made $45,090 in 2012, average salaries for all closed caption reporters were $53,010 during the same year, according to the BLS. The top 10 percent made more than $90,530 annually. Local government agencies paid their closed caption reporters the highest salaries in the industry at $56,970 per year, according to 2012 BLS data. A local city hall is an example of a local government agency that employs these broadcasting reporters. Closed caption reporters who were employed with the federal government, such as the U.S. Congress, made $56,510.
Top Pay in State of New York
In 2012, salaries for court reporters, including closed captioners, varied by as much as $39,000 between some states. They earned the highest salaries of $84,090 in New York, according to the BLS, while they averaged $76,840 annually in California. Those in Maine, Colorado and Texas also earned salaries higher than the national average at $74,940, $70,130 and $61,900 per year, respectively. They made $37,760 in Florida, while those in Indiana averaged $35,640, which was the lowest salary among the states listed.
Average Job Outlook
The BLS estimates a 10 percent increase in employment for court reporters, including broadcast captioners, from 2012 to 2022, which is approximately as fast as the 11 percent national average for all occupations. Between 1993 and 1996, Congress mandated closed captioning for all network, cable, and satellite television and news programs, according to the Federal Communications Commission, which increased demand for closed caption reporters. Increases in population among seniors, who need these services the most, could continue to increase job opportunities for closed caption reporters.
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Outlook Handbook: What Court Reporters Do
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Outlook Handbook: How to Become a Court Reporter
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Court Reporters: Job Outlook
Bureau of Labor Statistics: Occupational Employment Statistics: Court Reporters
O*Net Online: Summary Report for: Court Reporters
National Court Reporters Association: Certified Broadcast Captioner
Federal Communications Commission: Closed Captioning on Television
Southwest Tennessee Community College: What Is a Court Reporter and/or Closed Captioner?
Closed Caption Television Specialist Salary Range
Hourly Salary for Videographers
Does a Spokesperson Get Paid?
What Is the Average Hourly Rate for a Freelance Film Editor?
How to Receive a Certificate to Be a Stenographer
The Job Description of a Closed Caption Editor
How Much Do Stenographers Make?
What Is a Certified Legal Video Specialist's Salary?
Court Runner Salary
1 Closed Caption Television Specialist Salary Range
2 Hourly Salary for Videographers
3 Does a Spokesperson Get Paid?
4 What Is the Average Hourly Rate for a Freelance Film Editor?
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Ottoman Turkish manuscripts, periodicals in Europeana database
Part of the digitized material at Turkey's National Library is now available in a search platform to a collection of European digital libraries.
Turkey's National Library has become the first Turkish institution to participate in Europeana, a platform gathering the digital resources of Europe's museums, libraries, archives and audio-visual collections.
The launching of Turkish sources on Europeana has enabled nearly 27,000 manuscripts and about 10,000 magazines written in the modified Arabic alphabet used by the Ottomans to be seen by a wider audience.
Europeana is a recently launched platform allowing people to access digital resources from cultural institutions across Europe and it collects cultural institutions and centers on a common ground.
National Library General Director Tuncel Acar told the Anatolia news agency that the process of Turkish sources' inclusion into Europeana began when European officials invited Turkey to join through Ankara's Hacettepe University.
“We included National Library works in [Europeana] after signing a protocol,” he said.
While highlighting that the manuscripts are historical artifacts that are unique and cannot be sold, Acar said it is an honor for the library to join Europeana. He also noted that Turkish will be added to the interface's language options.
In addition to manuscripts, printed books have also been converted into digital media for the platform, Acar said.
“For example, we have a book of letters that [Ottoman Sultan] Fatih Sultan Mehmet wrote to the Vatican. It was published in 1475. This book is as valuable as a manuscript because it was published hundreds of years ago.”
Secrets of Hagia Sophia from Vikings to Muslims
Gorgeous photos in Camlica Mosque
Ancient letters reveal most famous Ottoman love story
Theater tickets exist for 2,200 years in Turkey
Turkish president votes in photo award
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Turkey, Libya sign cooperation deal on health sector
Libyan patients can get medical treatment at private hospitals in Turkey.
Turkish Health Minister Recep Akdag met with Libyan Secretary of the General People's Committee for Health & Environment Muhammad Hijazi in Ankara on Tuesday.
After the meeting, Turkish and Libyan parties signed a cooperation agreement in the health sector.
Akdag said that relations in the health sector would be improved more between the two countries with this agreement.
Akdag said that Libyan patients could receive medical treatment in Turkey.
Libyan Health Minister Hijazi said that he had a fruitful meeting with Akdag.
Hijazi said especially patients who have been suffering from serious diseases such as cancer could be treated at hospitals in Turkey.
Hijazi said that Libya has been making initiatives in the area of health and his country would keep sending patients to other countries till health sector was improved in his country.
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Three murder warrants issued in Orange Mound shooting
by: Lisa Dandridge
MEMPHIS, Tenn. — Investigators have spent months looking for one woman's killers and Monday afternoon, they're one step closer to putting them behind bars.
A couple of months ago WREG told you about the tragic murder of Vallen Conner, who was caught in the crossfire in Orange Mound.
Homicide detectives say they now know who they are looking for, but need your help finding them. Officers say three gang members are responsible.
Memphis police say two months ago, 26-year-old Vallen Conner was sitting in her car in front of a house on Fizer Street waiting on her co-worker.
Officers say shortly after her co-worker showed up, so did three gunmen. They drove up and opened fire. Vallen and her co-worker were both shot.
When police arrived, Conner was already dead.
"He is most likely the target, but she paid the price," detectives said.
Homicide detectives have issued first-degree murder warrants for 26-year-old Ladarius Wiggins, 28-year-old Cortez Williams and 37-year-old Stanley Hibbler.
Officers say all three are responsible for killing Conner and all three are known gang members.
"One of these guys have been around murder for years," investigators said, "He's been a witness, he's been shot, he's a witness in another one and he's hiding from us."
But now police say he's wanted for murder.
If you know where Ladarius Wiggins, Cortez Williams and Stanley Hibbler may be, call Crime Stoppers at 528-CASH. All calls are confidential .
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C o n c e r t s
Recital with Sonia Leong, piano
Music by Beethoven. Grieg, Ysaÿe and Richard Einhorn
Resident Artist Series, The University of the Pacific
Trio 180
Triple Concerto by Ellen Taaffe Zwilich
Nicolas Waldvogel, conductor and
the University of the Pacific Symphony Orchestra
Trio 180
Music by Bloch, Saint-Saëns, and Gabriela Lena Frank
with guest artist Patricia Shands, clarinet
Music by Debussy and Messiaen
Sunset Music and Arts, Incarnation Episcopal Church
Music by Haydn, Saint-Saëns, Jennifer Higdon, and Schoenfield
Sundays at Three
Photo by Sasha Photography
Check out my new blog where I discuss practice techniques and more!
U P C O M I N G E V E N T S
S E P
September 13, 2019 at 7:30 pm. Recital of music by Grieg, Beethoven, Ysaÿe, and Richard Einhorn. With pianist Sonia Leong. Resident Artist Series, the University of the Pacific, Stockton, CA.
Read a review in September's issue of Strings Magazine of Trio 180's album of music by Dvorak, Suk, and Schumann. "The trio’s pleasing musicality and deft, splendid playing is overall transporting. As the ensemble’s name may imply, it’s worth turning back for another listen."
N O V
November 15, 2019 at 7:30 pm. Trio 180 performs Ellen Taaffe Zwilich's Triple Concerto with Nicolas Waldvogel, conductor and the University of the Pacific Symphony Orchestra. Faye Spanos Concert Hall, Stockton, CA.
© 2019 by Ann Miller
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Arabesque Antiques
Home > Catalogue > For the garden > coadestone corner capital
coadestone corner capital
Coadestone Terracotta Capital Stamped Croggon London 1832
A rare, very large scale and beautifully detailed, Coadestone corner capital, stamped Croggon London 1832. In very good condition, with expected wear and tear ( nibbles and chips )
William Croggon managed the business for Eleanor Coade after John Sealy, her partners, death in 1813. When Eleanor died in in 1821, William bought the business and ran it successfully until his death in1835. Thomas, his son, took over until it closed in the early 1840's.
Eleanor Coade (d 1821) opened her Lambeth Manufactory for ceramic artificial stone in 1769, appointing the sculptor John Bacon as its manager two years later. She was employed by all the leading late 18th Century architects. From about 1777 she began her engraved designs, which were published in 1784 in a catalogue of over 700 items entitled A Descriptive Catalogue of Coade's Artificial Stone Manufactory. Then in 1799, the year she entered into partnership with her cousin John Sealey, she issued a handbook for her Pedlar's Lane exhibition Gallery. The firm became Coade and Sealey from this date and following Sealey's death in 1813, it reverted to Coade and in 1821 with the death of the younger Eleanor Coade, control of the firm passed to William Croggan, who died in 1835, following bankruptcy. Coade's manufactures resembling a fine-grained natural stone, have always been famed for their durability in the garden.( Information taken from Summersplace auctions Lot 90 20th May 2008 )
H 22 1/2" x W 40" x D 24"
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Forai is latest bringing new life to former St. John the Baptist High School Read More
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Hike, mountaintop Mass about praying, evangelizing, father-son bonding
Divine Word Father Krzysztof Pipa, parish administrator of St. Ann Parish in Browns Mills, N.J., distributed Communion at the ‘Mass on Top of the Mountain’ on Mount Tammany in New Jersey.
Photo Credit: Jeff Bruno | Catholic News Service
‘Mass on Top of the Mountain’ a way for men to put on a public display of faith
WARREN, N.J. — As the early morning fog lifted over the top of Mount Tammany, the snapping of twigs underfoot mingled with light conversation and prayer.
But most often, the soft sounds of the woods were enveloped in a peaceful quiet, as about 150 men hiked North Jersey’s Dunnfield Creek Natural Area, Warren County, to the summit in silent contemplation.
At the peak, men from the Diocese of Trenton, many of whom were joined by their sons, knelt on the rocky ground as a bilingual Mass was celebrated.
Men from the Diocese of Trenton, many with their sons, hiked Mount Tammany in Knowlton Township, N.J., June 15. About 150 men of all ages took part in the retreat and Mass focused on bringing men together for prayer, camaraderie and Mass.
Photo Credits: Jeff Bruno | Catholic News Service
Josue Arriola, director of the diocesan Department of Evangelization and Family Life, which sponsored the “Mass on Top of the Mountain” hike, said the day was about prayer, evangelization and creating bonds.
“Part of the goal was to strengthen men’s groups and to help them recruit new members,” he said, explaining that in addition, at least two parishes represented that day left with plans to start their own men’s groups where one didn’t previously exist.
“God’s presence was felt,” he told The Monitor, Trenton’s diocesan newspaper. “Men who started the hike alone reached the top with a new friend or a group.”
The principal celebrant of the June 15 Mass was Father Jorge Bedoya, parochial vicar of St. Joan of Arc Parish in Marlton. The concelebrants were Father Javier Diaz, pastor of Christ the King Parish in Long Branch, and Divine Word Father Krzysztof Pipa, who is parish administrator of St. Ann Parish in Browns Mills.
John Muka, who helped organize the men’s group from his parish, St. Vincent de Paul in Yardville, said it was important to show a public display of faith. He explained how along the way, the men encountered other hikers who were curious about the group expedition and their faith.
At the end of the hike, Muka said, “I kept thinking how we threw one rock in the pond, and it made some ripples. Now let’s figure out some other things to do. We have to keep throwing rocks in the pond. We have to keep making those ripples. There’s too much against us — the world is trying to pull us all apart.”
Arriola said he was grateful for all who helped make the event a success and the family and spousal support the men received.
“The encouragement of the wives was instrumental to making this possible,” he said. “They saw this as a beautiful opportunity for fathers and sons to interact.”
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Hike mountaintop Mass about praying evangelizing fatherson bonding 4199
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Asbestos on clothes kills mum
Last Updated on 16th September 2019 by Kirsty Smithson
Housewife contracted mesothelioma after 40 years of washing husbands overalls
A mum and housewife contracted mesothelioma cancer after years of coming into contact with asbestos on clothes her husband wore for work.
Adrienne Sweeney’s husband, William, worked as a fitter at a boiler factory for 40 years.
Upon her husband’s return from work each day, the couple would have cuddles and she would clean his uniform.
At a court hearing last year, it was deemed that Adrienne’s cancer was caused by asbestos on clothes her husband wore for work.
As a result, her family have just been awarded £247,000 in compensation.
The family are pleased with the end verdict.
Kay Gibson, Adrienne’s daughter, said, “Our loving mother was hard working and lived to support her family and friends, like so many women in Scotland in the late 60s and early 70s.”
“She supported her family by caring for her children and washing her husband’s overalls when he returned from a hard day’s work for employers who used deadly asbestos.”
“These women, like our mother, were unaware how unsafe it was to be handling the asbestos dust which came from these work clothes or the contamination risk to their own and their families lungs.”
William Sweeney died aged 71 in 2008.
The court heard how he and Adrienne would share a cuddle when he came home form work, before Adrienne proceeded to wash his clothes.
It was years of doing this that exposed Adrienne to asbestos.
She was to die from mesothelioma aged 75 in 2015.
Former employers ordered to pay damages
Babcock International, Williams former employers, were told by the judge that they should pay damages to the family.
The judge said, “This is, so far as I can tell, the first case in this jurisdiction in which a proof has taken place dealing with secondary exposure – that is, exposure to someone in the home of an employee, alleged to have caused mesothelioma in a secondary victim.”
“I am satisfied that the defenders failed to reduce the risk to the deceased. There was no safe known level of exposure.”
“For the reasons set out, I am satisfied that the defenders negligently exposed the deceased to asbestos and materially increased the risk that she would develop mesothelioma.”
William and Adrienne’s family originally sued Babcock International for £50,000 as individuals.
Adrienne gave a statement to a legal firm before she died in 2015 which detailed both her and Williams’s employment history.
Apparently, she told the legal firm that she knew there was asbestos on clothes she washed for her husband.
The Lawyers seeking compensation for the Sweeney family argued that William’s employers were liable for Adrienne’s illness and eventual death.
Thompsons Solicitors said the company should have done more to prevent both her and William being exposed to asbestos on clothes worn by William for work.
However, Babcock International argued that there was insufficient evidence of this.
But in the end, the judge ruled in favour of the family.
The judge said, “I accept that Mr Sweeney brought dusty clothes home with him. Whether the deceased had any basis in her own knowledge or from discussion with Mr Sweeney for her statement that the clothing had asbestos dust on it, I do not know.
“I accept that the deceased shook out and washed Mr Sweeney’s work clothes in the manner described in her statement.”
“Her statement is imprecise as to the frequency with which she did so, but I infer from what she said that this was a regular occurrence, carried out throughout the different seasons and, on the balance of probabilities, at least weekly.”
“I infer that the defenders knew or ought to have known that work clothes would be cleaned at home given that they did not provide clean clothing.”
Nicola Macara, the lawyer who acted for the family from Thompsons Solicitors, said, “This landmark case is a very positive outcome not only for the Sweeney family but for all Scots fighting to ensure that justice is done for sufferers of asbestos-related disease.”
Source of article:- www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mum-killed-husband-cuddling-her-12982399
Did you enjoy our article on Asbestos on clothes kills mum? Then check out our latest posts below.
Duty holders and employers have a legal responsibility to manage asbestos in their properties, carrying out an asbestos survey in their building so as not to put employees at risk.
So make sure you contact our Armco office to arrange an asbestos survey, before it’s too late!
Whether you need an asbestos management survey, or a refurbishment/ demolition survey, contact us on 0161 763 3727 or by visiting https://www.armco.org.uk/
Finally, for all your asbestos training needs call 0161 761 4424 or visit https://www.armcoasbestostraining.co.uk/to book an asbestos awareness training course
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Home » New Assembly Plant to Produce Automotive Speakers
Automotive AssemblyElectronics Assembly
New Assembly Plant to Produce Automotive Speakers
KEYWORDS automotive supplier industry / speaker manufacturing / Texas manufacturing
EAST EL PASO, TX—Tokyo-based Foster Electric plans to add an automotive speaker factory to its distribution facility here in 2020 and create 40 new jobs.
It will be the company’s only speaker factory in North America, and will be the most technologically advanced among the company’s speaker factories, according to a report in the El Paso Times.
The company, which employs 32 people in East El Paso, supplies speakers to almost every automotive OEM.
Foster Electric chose to bring speaker manufacturing to El Paso, “not only because it is the largest economic and commercial zone along the border area, but because of its skilled labor force, its central location and excellent logistics, its business resources and the character of its community,” said Jose Rangel, Foster’s vice president of El Paso operations.
Foster Electric assembles about 700,000 speakers a year in El Paso. The new factory lines will manufacture about 6 million speakers a year, Rangel said.
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News - page 3
IMC Companies Offers Innovative Storage Solutions to help Customers During COVID-19 Pandemic
Between the Chinese New Year 2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen the real-life effects of the supply and demand paradox as scores of containers move across the globe. The timing of the events is causing havoc within the […]
IMC Companies provides flexibility for a community hero
“I wanted to be someone. I wanted to go somewhere. I wanted to break the curse.” – Jerimiah Washington, OIS Owner Operator During the COVID-19 pandemic, truck drivers are more than an essential worker. They are our nation’s heroes – […]
Jerimiah Washington, Ohio Intermodal Services
Supporting drivers on the front line
“Our goal is to encourage drivers. In a global pandemic, they are our nation’s heroes.” – Mark H. George, Chairman IMC Companies.
Drivers are keeping America running during the COVID-19 pandemic. We understand you are working on the front lines. We have your back.
At a time when many restaurants and fuel stations are closed to drivers, IMC Companies Chairman Mark H. George and his wife Melinda are working to ensure drivers in Memphis have access to meals. During the past several weeks, they, and IMCG President Joel Henry, personally passed out 150 boxed lunches every Tuesday and Thursday to all drivers entering the Memphis terminal’s interchange lanes in an IMCC initiative called “Sandwiches for Semis”. (more…)
Mark H. George, Melinda George
No shortage of food, but grocers limited by rationing of paper products, bread
Just when Memphis-area grocers thought they’d hit a lull, a buying frenzy exploded again Monday afternoon after shelter-in-place orders from local governments.
“Once the announcement was made, we got crushed,” Richard James, owner of three Memphis-area Cash Saver stores, said on Wednesday, March 25.
Early Monday, “we even had a conversation among store managers and myself, ‘Well, it looks like things are going to calm down a little bit,’ ” said James.
Then, “In a condensed period of time it was probably the busiest day of the last 14 days. We took a deep breath and went, ‘That didn’t last long,’ ” James said.
Coronavirus, Katie Hooser
Local truckload carrier preps for import surge from China
A locally based truckload carrier is trying to surge ahead in the midst of the coronavirus crisis.
Donna Lemm, EVP of national sales for IMC Cos., said all U.S. ports and inland rails remain open, which means the company’s drivers continue to deliver freight.
Lemm acknowledged that before the coronavirus, the industry looked promising and intermodal volumes were strong. The Chinese New Year brought a typical seasonal lull for the transportation industry. But, Lemm said things changed when the virus hit Wuhan, China and import volumes from Chinese manufacturers dropped. Ocean carriers were also forced to cancel sailings out of China.
Coronavirus, Donna Lemm
Truckers risk exposure to coronavirus to deliver critical medical and food supplies
As medical professionals and public health officials work to slow the spread of the coronavirus, truck drivers are also working around-the-clock to deliver critical medical supplies, food and other essentials to hospitals and grocery stores nationwide.
Deb LaBree and her husband, Del, of Joplin, Missouri, haul vital medical supplies to hospitals. They are independent owner-operators, who own Castle Transport LLC, and are leased to Landstar. They typically run from Colorado to the East Coast.
Deb LaBree considers truckers “unsung heroes” who rally in times of crisis to get the job done, even if it means putting their health at risk.
“We got into trucking 13 years ago, and specifically the pharmaceutical division, to help people in times like this because we know they need their medication,” she told FreightWaves.
Deb LaBree said she’s not on the “panic wagon” yet but understands the importance of remaining healthy to deliver medicine to help those affected by the coronavirus, which is now a global pandemic, according to the World Health Organization.
EVP Donna Lemm Featured in Transportation Podcast
Rainmaking Podcast has launched a new edition featuring IMC Companies Executive Vice President of Sales Donna Lemm. The podcast discusses the role of women in the transportation industry and the importance of technology in the intermodal space.
“We source all of our technology internally. We are very fortunate because we have a lot of depth in our IT department staff. We have great leadership from our CIO (Joel Tracy), but more than that, we have a chairman (Mark H. George) who believes in technology,” said Lemm. “We are always mindful of what’s going on outside of our realm. It’s not just about size and scale, it’s about being able to respond to an e-commerce world demanding speed and demanding that we respond in every area not just execution but in billing, in invoicing, in our response time. It’s a very exciting time to be in this business.”
Donna Lemm
Cindy Markham Raises the Bar for Women in Trucking
According to the American Trucking Association, the trucking industry saw a 68% increase in the number of female drivers from 2010 to 2018. At the IMC Companies Family of Brands, we are committed to providing all drivers, especially women drivers, a professional and positive working environment.
“I think women definitely have a place in the trucking industry. We need more entrepreneurs. We need people on the ground who understand the industry and can push women to believe in themselves and realize it is not beyond their grasp.” -Cindy Markham, IMCG Company Driver
Cindy Markham
Shippers applaud CMA CGM’s jump to Memphis gray chassis pool
Shippers and truckers are applauding a decision by CMA CGM to join the gray pool in Memphis, with the decision to embrace open choice making it less likely there will be a chassis shortage should volume spike after disruptions from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pass.
“[The decision] increases shipper efficiency, provides more affordable and timely chassis access, improves on-time container arrival at terminals and vessel loading, keeping bookings on CMA and APL vessels intact,” wrote Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agricultural Transportation Coalition, in a letter to CMA CGM. “Your chassis policies in the South Atlantic and Mid-South support the competitiveness of agriculture and forest products exporters.” (more…)
Chassis Pool, Donna Lemm
Virginia Maritime Association Celebrates 100 Years
The Virginia Maritime Association was founded in 1920 and has led, lobbied for, or influenced every major development related to the port or trade over the last 100 years – always working to promote, protect, and encourage commerce through Virginia’s […]
Atlantic Intermodal Services, Jeff Banton, Virginia Maritime Association
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SE New Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van
Years 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999
Chrysler has redesigned the seating system in the Dodge Grand Caravan and the result is one of the most versatile interiors in the industry. The second-row and third-row seats flip down into the floor, leaving a huge, perfectly flat cargo compartment behind the front seats. No other minivan currently has second-row seats that disappear into the floor.
With seating for seven, the Grand Caravan can carry half the little league team with room left over for their stuff. Selectively folding away the seats gives its owner great versatility in hauling a mix of passengers and cargo. No need to pull seats out and store them in the garage or to try to put stuff on top of them. Fold them all down and the Grand Caravan offers more cargo space than most sport utilities, including the mammoth Chevy Suburban. And its cargo space is more accessible and more convenient than that of SUVs.
Other new and revised features further improve the Grand Caravan for 2005, making it a compelling choice among a strong group of competitors that have been recently been redesigned. Also more compelling: pricing, which has been dropped by an average of $3,000.
The shorter Caravan models are largely unchanged and have the old seating system. Dodge added new features to the Caravan for 2004, including a tire pressure monitor. Its stereo systems feature in-dash, six-disc CD changers.
On the road, the Dodge Grand Caravan and Caravan offer a smooth ride and responsive handling. These are family-friendly vehicles that offer the features and flexibility most buyers want and there's a model for every budget. Most models come with a powerful V6 engine that delivers strong acceleration for merging onto hectic freeways. Anti-lock brakes and side-impact airbags are available.
Choose a Trim Cargo Van (CV) Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van (SE) Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van (SE New) Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van (SXT)
Drivetrain front-wheel
5.0 out of 5 (4 Owner Reviews) Review the 2005 Grand Caravan
More Grand Caravan Information
Grand Caravan News
Dodge Dealers
2005 Dodge Grand Caravan trims (4)
Trim Family CV SE SXT
(CV) Cargo Van
(SE) Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van
(SE New) Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van
(SXT) Front-wheel Drive Passenger Van
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Sep 20, 2020 - Health
Trump's health secretary asserts control over all new rules
HHS Secretary Alex Azar and President Donald Trump. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar wrote a memo this week giving him authority over all new rules and banning any of the health agencies, including the FDA, from signing any new rules "regarding the nation’s foods, medicines, medical devices and other products," the New York Times reports.
Why it matters: The story further underscores reporting that health and scientific agencies are undergoing a deep politicization as the Trump administration races to develop a coronavirus vaccine, as Axios' Caitlin Owens has reported. Peter Lurie, a former associate commissioner of the FDA, told the Times that the Azar memo amounted to a "power grab."
What they're saying: Brian Harrison, Azar's chief of staff, said the changes were simply a "housekeeping matter."
"This good governance, housekeeping action, which should have no operational impact because all rules already required departmental clearance, will prevent potential future abuse of authority and is clearly consistent with congressional intent," Harrison said.
"This has nothing to do with guidances or any vaccine, drug, or therapeutic approval. Assertions that this was aimed at any specific division or leader are dishonest or uninformed."
Other outside experts believe that the memo could further hinder scientific voices. The CDC this week reversed course on a controversial policy concerning coronavirus testing for asymptomatic people, which was reportedly posted to the agency's website over the objections of scientists.
Go deeper: Trump contradicts CDC chief on when vaccine will be widely available
Editor's note: This story has been updated to remove references to vaccines, which do not go through the rule-making process.
Jacob Knutson
Updated Dec 31, 2020 - Health
California reports first case of new coronavirus variant
Healthcare workers treating a patient in UCLA Medical Center in Torrence, California, on Dec. 29. Photo: Dania Maxwell/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
California reported its first case of a new variant of the coronavirus that may be more transmissible, AP reports.
The big picture: California is the second state to document a confirmed case of the variant — which originated in the United Kingdom — after Colorado reported the first case in the United States on Tuesday.
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UK Naval Build in SZ 2/8
Axis & Allies Revised Edition
theduke last edited by
What do you think of UK being able to build naval units in SZ 2 or 8? Do you think it’s too much of an advantage for the Allies to be able to build up their navy out of reach of the German navy in the Baltic? Does anyone think it’s actually an advantage to the Axis that UK naval units build in SZ 2/8 can’t reach the Baltic in 1 turn?
Mr.Bo last edited by
I think it’s good as it is. The Uk would not be too happy with German fighters sinking every ship it builds… In addition, it would force the US to send all of its ships to one of these sea zones to reinforce the GB fleet and would leave the African option for the US less attractive!
do you think the game is unbalanced in favor of the allies? if it is then do you think if uk couldn’t build in sz 2 or 8 that it would even things out a little more? wouldn’t this be better for he game?
Well, about all the games we played, the Allies won… The few times the Axis won, this was because of capital mistakes or bold strategies. I think you also know that there is a certain strategy for the Allies that almost always is successful.
Yet I believe that prohibiting the UK build in 2&8 would be too much of a disadvantage for the Allies. The consequences are too far-reaching, don’t you think? What would/did you vote? What would you suggest as an alternative?
i voted for advantage for allies and should not be allowed. i haven’t play tested this yet, but i think the allies will still have the edge if you forbid uk naval builds in 2 and 8. the game would just be a little more balanced.
if anyone plays with this modification let me know how it played out.
i would even go so far as to say that the ability of uk to build a navy out of range of germany’s navy is the single worst modification of the revised edition.
trihero last edited by
Well it would be too devastating if Germany could attack the UK main fleet off of England in the first turn, considering Germany already decimates the Med fleet and possibly Egypt.
I think it’s a blessing and a curse for both sides. While the Baltic navy can’t reach 2 or 8, the same is true of the UK forces - those ships he builds there can’t reach the baltic in one turn. It turns into a question of who tries to move in range first, otherwise you’re both hiding from each other. Of course I guess this tends to bias it in favor of Allies since Germany doesn’t have time to build a navy, so the UK can safely build up until he’s ready, but on the other hand Germany can reactively build a navy if the UK tries to boldly move in from those hiding spots. I don’t think it’s really an issue overall though because the Uk will use an airforce to clean out the Baltic moreso than a navy.
The way the seazones are cut up is favorable to the Axis if the US tries to go in; it takes an extra turn to get into the Baltic from sz1, taking an extra turn for the US to set a shuck system (one from east canada to england, one from england into the baltic).
Was it too devastating for the Allies in the original version? The positive bidding of the Axis implies that it wasn’t too devastating.
It’s worse than that. UK has the option of moving the fleet he built up in 2 or 8 into SZ 4 and then placing new purchases in SZ 4! Germany doesn’t have that luxury. If Germany moves their fleet from the Baltic they can’t add newly purchased units to the fray. Give Germans the ability to build in SZ 4 as well and then I’ll agree with you.
In a nutshell, building in SZs 2 and 8 gives the Allies too much of an advantage because it gives them many, many more options than the Germans get. I don’t have to tell knowledgable people that the more options a player gets, the more likely he is going to beat a player with fewer options at his disposal.
Agreed. It does take longer for US to get shucking to work, but the extra SZ between US and UK is independent from the ability of the UK to build out of range of the German fleet. In other words, you can design it so US shucking is just as hard and UK can’t build out of range.
You can try building a factory in Western Europe - that gives you lots of seazones to put a new navy in XD
If germany has to fork over 15 more IPCs for a factory then UK should have do the same to build in SZ 4, but fortunately for them they don’t have to do that.
I looked at the map and I’m confused - UK can’t build in Sz4. We’re talking about the sea zone that the Russian sub starts in, right? Next to karelia and archangel. That doesn’t directly border England where the factory is. Maybe you’re talking about sz2 which is to the left of england?
i don’t have access to the gameboard. all i have access to, and the info i based my post on, is a very pixelated jpeg i got off some website. the sz number between uk, norway and w europe looks a lot like a 4 but like i said it might not be. i wish they had a quality map on this website… there’s an idea! someone get a moderator over here…
is it a 5? please respond to the question with respect to that sz between uk, norway, and w europe.
The one you’re talking about is sea zone 6 (six) that borders england, norway, and western europe. Sea zone 5 is the Baltic. Sea zone 4 is the one where the Russian sub starts. Sea zone 3 is the one just bordering Norway and England.
Personally I still don’t think it’s any real advantage to either side about sz2 or 8. I have definitely cursed the fact that as Germany I can’t reach the UK’s fleet hiding back there in one turn, but on the other hand his fleet hiding back there can’t reach you in one turn either, giving you a chance to build a carrier and land some of those fighters you started with on it. I actually think it favors Germany later in the game because it gives Germany the time to react by building a navy, instead of constantly having to monitor your navy’s strength relative to the UK if both couldn’t hide from each other.
Your point about building in sea zone 6 being strong is very two-sided. While it does allow you to ‘instantly’ reinforce your navy that you move from sz2 or 8, this also puts the UK navy in full range of fighters in Germany, Norway, and Western Europe.
OLver last edited by
In reality, did UK had naval industries in the north? If the answer is yes, it must be allowed. If no, it shouldn’t be allowed.
A naval situation
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • Amon-Sul
It is only knowledge sharing! Someone explained it to me, and I explain it to someone else, so knowledge of each one of us increase!
Moreover, I may test if I really understood the concept, only trying to explain it to other people, and other one may correct me if I am wrong, so I learn!
So I also should thak you, and anyone that would say his opinion!
Navy / naval combat question
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • crash resistant
Actually, this was teh thread that started teh whole thing that led to LHTR 1.3. It was about using friendly ships that were already in an enemy occupied sea zone as fodder for your attack on those enemy ships.
Under the new LHTR that came out of this, the Allies can NOT use those US ships that are already in SZ59 as fodder for a UK attack on the Japan ships in SZ59.
This became the “Multinational Forces on Attack” thread.
The UK and Industrial Centers
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • Scalenex
I disagree. Russia will not fall at all if Japan is at the gates of Moscow because Germany will be at the gates of Berlin.
Actually, the BEST game I ever had was when England went balls to the walls against Japan by landing in Archangelsk, through Russia and into Novosibirsk while Russia pushed into Europe and America worked on Africa and landing in S. Europe (as defined as W. Europe, S. Europe, Balkans and Ukraine.)
This maximized Russia’s income because England liberated land while Russia conquered land and it conserved Russian armies by not forcing Russia to trade with Japan. This allowed me to get 30 Armor with Russia, and if Russia is strong enough to have 30 armor to throw back and forth across the board with impunity (or very near) then it’s game over for the Axis.
Gametableonline.com/facebook PBEM AA revised !!! it totally rocks !!
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • steadybootleggin
I just started using the gametableonline site for my A&A fix. I’m loving it as it is the same program that was on the Gleemax boards at Wizards. Now I can play A&A whenever I desire, life is good.
Building Naval Units in Enemy Occupied SZ
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • jsp4563
@ncscswitch:
It sounds like you saw a clip from his old Calin on Campus.
One of his 2 best ever (the other is Carlin at Carnegie).
Baseball and Football is indeed one of my faves!
“… the Quarterback, otherwise known as the Field General…”
lol yea. I have to watch he other ones now. Perhaps theyll show another different one of Comedy Central.
Excellent First Turn Options for UK
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • bcclark7
BTW, I missed it before in your last uber post, Bunnies, thanks for the props on the excitement on KJF, and recognizing I have some experience to draw on when I talk.
If Germany forsakes taking Africa because of the complex in S. Africa,then the complex has paid for itself. If Germany bleeds out trying to keep a foothold on Africa then the complex pays for itself in reduced German presence.
However, the interesting thing really isn’t Germany, it’s what that complex can do to Japan. wink
Build limits in sez zones…
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • Trigger
The Restrictions are based on the the area the IC complex are based in, it also applies to the sorrounding seazones.
so in your example it is max 3 transports and zero land units
Daniel Malus
This or Europe/Pacific
Axis & Allies Revised Edition • • Rakeman
poke through the games from the last 2 vs 2 tournament. That is where switch got all riled up at.
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Professional License Defense Lawyers Austin & Throughout Texas
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Home » Blog » Texas Teen Who Attempted to Have Classmate Killed Learns His Sentence
Texas Teen Who Attempted to Have Classmate Killed Learns His Sentence
Last June, I wrote a blog post and article about a seventeen-year-old boy from Pasadena, Texas by the name of Thomas Moses Ramirez. He had reached the unfortunate conclusion that by killing a fifteen-year-old girl who he believed to be interfering with his attempts to reconcile with a girlfriend, he would create the opportunity for love to blossom again. Ramirez found an undercover officer who was posing as a contract killer and offered him $150 and $15 worth of the anti-anxiety drug Xanax in return for the murder. Ramirez's first red flag moment should have been when the officer offered to commit the crime for such a low fee, but apparently that did not emerge as a concern. Yesterday, in a Harris County courtroom, Thomas Ramirez finally learned his fate.
District Judge Ruben Guerrero sentenced the teenager to twenty years in prison after he pleaded guilty to solicitation of capital murder. Perhaps one of the more damaging pieces of evidence was the recording of the exchange between Ramirez and the undercover officer in which Ramirez said, "Just go ahead and stab her in the heart. That's it." Ramirez's attorney, Greg Glass, had requested that his client receive only probation as his punishment due to the fact that he had never been in trouble with the law before and that prison would do nothing except teach him criminal behavior. When the judge instead determined that Ramirez may be sitting behind bars until he reaches his late-30s, his family made their feelings known loudly to everyone present and the bailiff was forced to clear the courtroom.
Ramirez will now need to serve at least half of his sentence before he will be eligible for parole. In the meantime, the girl who was threatened by Ramirez says that she still fears for her life. Perhaps yesterday's sentencing will finally give her some peace of mind.
There is never a reason to seek out a contract killer to end the life of someone who you believe to be interfering with your happiness. However, even those who make this horrible decision deserve to have thorough and fair representation during their day in court. If you have been accused of this horrible crime, the criminal defense attorneys at Bertolino LLP can help. Please contact our Austin, Houston, or San Antonio office today if you are in need of legal assistance.
Attorney Tony R. Bertolino is the Managing Partner with Bertolino LLP. Our law firm has been able to help people across the state of Texas. If you need an experienced lawyer to represent you, contact Bertolino LLP today.
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Benjamin Madeira — Official Website » caribbean-literature » cultural-studies » culture » english-language » essays » in-english » literary-analysis » politics » society » study-notes » university-studies » Essay — «Bans a Killin» — Louise Bennett - Jamaican Patois (PDF, Videos)
Essay — «Bans a Killin» — Louise Bennett - Jamaican Patois (PDF, Videos)
Bans a Killin — Louise Bennett - Photo: Louise Bennett
— [http://goo.gl/MX0wLM] Bennett humorously deprovincializes Jamaican Creole, recontextualizing it globally as but one of multitude of dialects spawned by a world-circulating language.
:: RT: Through her protest narrative, the author, being a pioneer in the field, had to endure numerous criticisms. Only a person with a high level of pride and self-belief in the Jamaican culture and its population could have withstood the negativity of the time | #LouiseBennett #BansAkillin #Jamaica #English #Patois #Jamaican #StudyNotes #UniversityStudies
Out of many, one language. Each of us is a dialectal speaker. Evidently, the English language through its many interactions with other languages and people have evolved and changed over the years (Svartvik & Leech, 2006, p. 13; Backus, 1999, pp. 11-22). Language is, undeniably, an important cultural banner to people and for many years has been used to give many nations and individuals a unique identity. “Bans a Killin” is a satirical poem written in Jamaican creole or ‘patois’ (‘patwa’) by Louise Bennett — a Jamaican poet and social activist . In this poem the poet defends having chosen to write in Jamaican creole. It was written in 1944, during Jamaica’s de-colonization, as a rebuttal to constant verbal assaults from several critics, represented by a fictional Mr. Charlie (Walker, 2005, p. 71).
He denigrated the local Jamaican English by voicing the ideology of the colonial elite: “creole talk […], both in pronunciation and in diction, [was] anything but elegant” (Cassidy, 2007, p. 22). Miss Bennett wrote the poem at a time when she aimed to define what it meant to be Jamaican and from the tone of the poem wanted the people of Jamaica to see themselves in a positive self-light. It emphasized the importance of patois language in molding the cultural background of the Jamaican nation and the identity of its people. A common national identity was about to be forged.
LANGUAGE BACKGROUND
Jamaica was a conglomeration of several peoples and cultures brought together in the Caribbean Island by the end of slavery, in 1834-1838 (Cassidy, 2007, pp. 16-18; Gardner, 1873, pp. 211-317). The ensuing mix of “cultures and languages accounts for the rich” background of “traditions” and “life” in Jamaica (Svartvik & Leech, 2006, p. 175). But of critical value to our narrative, are the various dialects the English language became after these interactions with the islands in the Caribbean including Jamaica. This combination of languages or dialects with the exclusive nature of the associations between them (the dialects, and other colonial languages and English) gave rise to mixed languages that became known as Creole or pidgin, or for linguists as ‘creolized’ English (Cassidy, 2007, pp. 1-3; Svartvik and Leech, 2006, p. 176; Patrick, 2007, p. 1). And none stranger than in the formation of English and local native tongues that gave rise to Jamaican patois, where we put our focus.
At Independence from colonial rule, in 1962, Jamaica as a nation was at the crossroads in terms of its cultural identity, social status, and language (Branca, 2007, pp. 2-4). Jamaican patois that is birthed out of a rich African legacy was spoken widely in the island both during decolonization and at independence by the locals. In contrast, Standard English was spoken by the euro-centered ruling minority, and anything that alluded to the local Jamaican English dialect was deemed to be categorized as that of half-civilized people: be it skin color, language and even music. It is against this backdrop that some thought Jamaican English was of a lower standing, offensive, their pronunciation was abominable, it was a villainous patois, “an indolent drawling out of their words, that [was] very tiresome if not disgusting” (Cassidy, 2007, p. 22; Branca, 2007, p. 4). It was snobbism in language at its peak.
Bans-a-Killin
In “Bans a Killin,” a man —Mr. Charlie, is planning on killing all dialects, focusing on patois’ inappropriateness in society. Thomas Russell, however, described the Jamaican folk speech with honest observation and without the attitude of superiority or scorn (1868, B, Introduction & p. 22). The poem, without losing its political and rebellious character, was used both to entertain and educate this nascent democracy on the importance of embracing the patois heritage that was part and parcel of the Jamaican social and moral fabric (Walker, 2005, pp. 68, 73). Bennett, disguised in laughter, fervently reminds the ruling class power that ‘patwa’ is not merely chaotic or corrupted English but a creation of immense vitality and humor, and most importantly, its role as “a defence against the assimilationist encroachment of the dominant society” (Wong, 1986, p. 113).
Bans a’ Killin’ by Louise Bennett, in patois (Bennett, 1993, selected 4-5) / [Standard] English translation: Bands of Killing (Madeira, 2015, translation for the purpose of ESL)
So yuh a de man me hear bout!
Ah yuh dem seh dah teck
Whole heap a English oat seh dat
yuh gwine kill dialec!
So, you are the man I hear about!
They tell that you have taken
a lot of English oaths that say
you will kill dialects!
Certain forms of spoken English are more stigmatized than others. In short, during decolonization, Bennett wanted to defend and nurture Jamaican dialect as the single most significant form of cultural and political identity of the Jamaican people (Branca, 2007, p. 5; Walker, 2005, p. 68).
Meck me get it straight, mas Charlie,
For me no quite understand –
Yuh gwine kill all English dialec
Or just Jamaica one?
Let me understand it properly, Mr. Charlie,
because I don’t completely understand it –
Are you going to kill all English dialects
or just the Jamaican one?
Ef yuh dah-equal up wid English
Language, den wha meck
Yuh gwine go feel inferior, when
It come to dialec?
If you meet the English language
standards in all respects,
why would you feel inferior
regarding this business of dialects?
It was of paramount importance for Louise Bennett to observe that English, about 500 CE, was only “a collection of dialects spoken by marauding Germanic tribes who settled in the part of the British Isles nearest the European continent” (Svartvik & Leech, 2006, p. 7).
Ef yuh cyaan sing 'Linstead Market'
An 'Wata Come A Me Y'Eye’
Yuh wi haffi tap sing 'Auld Lang Syne’
An ‘Comin' Thro' the Rye '.
If you can’t sing ‘Linstead Market’
and ‘Wata Come A Me Y'Eye’
you have to stop singing ‘Auld Lang Syne’
as well as ‘Comin' Thro' the Rye.’
The poem challenges Mr. Charlie on his views of an immutable language that does not fit reality. As corroborated by Albert Baugh (2002, pp. 175-178) and Celia Millward, some decades later, “[d]iversity among the regional dialects of England, particularly in pronunciation, is greater than in any other part of the world where English is spoken as a native language ([1989, 1996,] 2012, p. 367).
Dah language weh yuh proud o’,
Weh yuh honour an respect –
Po’ Mas Charlie! Yuh no know sey
Dat it spring from dialec!
That language that you are so proud of,
which you honor and respect—
Poor Mr. Charlie! Don’t you know
that it stemmed from dialects!
Bennett’s persona informs Jamaicans and her public in general on the Middle English period when the language went through a cultural and literary renaissance. Fourteenth-century English was spoken (and written) by common people in a variety of dialects and the aristocrats used French. Edward III ordered that English should be used in the law courts and Parliament, ‘because the French tongue [was] much unknown’ (Svartvik & Leech, 2006, pp. 41, 60-62). Bennett’s persuasive argument is that patois should be acknowledged without embarrassment as a regional dialect.
Dat dem start fi try tun language
From de fourteen century –
Five hundred years gawn an dem got
More dialec dan we!
They have tried to turn it into a language
from the fourteenth century—
Five hundred years have passed and now
they have more dialects than we do!
It places ‘proper’ English under the microscope by contending that it is built on a foundation of a variety of dialects such as those in Cockney and in Lancashire.
Yuh wi haffi kill de Lancashire,
De Yorkshire, de Cockney,
De broad Scotch and de Irish brogue
Before yuh start kill me!
You would have to kill the Lanky dialect,
the Tyke dialect, the Cockney,
the braid Scots and the strong Irish accent
before you begin to kill me!
By the time of Shakespeare's writings (1592-1616), the language had become clearly recognizable as Modern English, and even though, pronunciation was beginning to be standardized, spelling was not codified in the English language, and people more or less spelled words in the way that seemed most logical there and then. Shakespeare grew up in a world of dialects; he even spelt his name in at least six different ways (Svartvik & Leech, 2006, p. 60). The Creole-activist Jamaican, Louise Bennett, propagated the view that killing all countless variations in English meant killing the very soul of the English language.
Yuh wi haffi get de Oxford Book
A English Verse, an tear
Out Chaucer, Burns, Lady Grizelle
An plenty a Shakespeare!
You would have to get the anthology
of English poetry and tear
and a lot of Shakespeare!
Furthermore, the poem points out that the neo-colonial status quo proclivity to disparage Jamaican patois is in itself self-defeating (Walker, 2005, p. 71; Ramazani, 2009, p. 394).
When yuh done kill 'wit' an 'humour',
When yuh kill 'variety',
Yuh wi haffi fine a way fi kill
When you have finished killing ‘wit’ and ‘humor,’
when you have killed ‘variety,’
you will have to find a way to kill
Uniquely, the narrative added an aspect of comic relief to the otherwise serious issue being tackled. Its witty yet confrontational view attacked the blatant ignorance of the defenders of English ‘exclusiveness’ or snobbery.
An mine how yuh dah read dem English
Book deh pony uh shelf,
For ef yuh drop a ‘h’ yuh mighta
Haffi kill yuhself!
And how are you going to read those English
books that are there upon your shelf,
because if you drop an ‘h’ you might
have to kill your own self!
The poem posits the centrality of language in arousing passion in the hearts of people that would be impossible with ‘proper’ English language as this was associated with servitude (Branca, 2007, pp. 7-8). A way of restoring or regaining an ethnic or national identity is by rejecting the language of the colonizer. In Jamaica, the imperial language had “[displaced] the native language, by installing itself as a ‘standard’” against patois which was constituted as ‘impurity’ (Ashcroft, 1995, p. 261).
The poem was also very familiar with the 1960’s radio deejays, who played it frequently. It is this influence that has ascribed the notion that this poem and especially its style played an essential role in the spread and growth of the reggae music genre that came to the fore during this era: "[i]t is difficult to say whether [Bob] Marley's lyrics would have been very different without the existence of Louise Bennett. Bob Marley, however, constantly sampled Jamaican folklore in his compositions, folklore harvested and promoted by Louise Bennett" (Walker, 2005, pp. 68, 73-78).
“Bans a Killin” was considered the most militant and political of all of Louise Bennett’s poetic narratives (Walker, 2005, p. 71). The poem was regarded as having played a significant role in the Jamaican nation's liberation from neo-colonial intellectual slavery. It helped carve out of the amorphous mass that is Jamaican culture, an art form and identity that was appreciated and acceptable by Jamaican people of all creeds. It is noteworthy that patois was a tool of great importance to the Jamaican nation after many years of colonial rule, and this mirrored in both the language and customs of the Jamaican people. The appearance of written language was a factor that trigged “the change in language consciousness [which gave] rise to the notion that [patois] language [existed]” (Cooper, 2004, p. 280).
Writing in patois was moving away from colonial standards that disrespected an entire cultural reality. “Bans a Killin” was a trendsetter in setting the pulse of a newly democratic Jamaica cultural, social and political identity, which standard English, being the language of the ‘downpressor’ [expressed as “oppressor” in standard English], would have not achieved. The combination of oral and written language produced strong feelings of emotional identification during decolonization and postcolonial Jamaicans. Louise Bennett is undisputedly the major proponent of Jamaican cultural heritage. There have been arguments on whether this close contact between English and the local native dialects should be considered English or not due to the assortment of dialects of English that have stemmed out of it.
Jamaican creole is a language-rule system –English-lexified Creole, used by Jamaican people and it varies in some way from an ideal language standard –Standard English. “The ideal standard is rarely used except in formal writing, and the concept of a standard spoken language is practically a myth” (Owen 2012, p. 28). By championing the language and culture of her people, Louise Bennett awakened in the Jamaican people an awareness of the importance of Jamaican Patois not as an inferior language of the masses but as a language that is an important facet of the Jamaican cultural fabric. “Out of many, one people.”
WORKS CITED — REFERENCES :
• [1] Ashcroft, Bill, Gareth Griffiths, and Helen Tiffin, editors (1995). The Post-Colonial Studies Reader (2nd. Edition). London and New York: Routledge. ISBN 0-203-42306-2
• [2] Backus, Ad. (1999). “Mixed native language: A challenge to the monolithic view of language.” Topics in Language Disorders, 19(4), Aspen Publishers.
• [3] Baugh, Albert C., and Thomas Cable (2002). A History of the English Language (5th edition). Routledge. ISBN 0-203-99463-9
• [4] Bennett, Louise. Aunty Roachy Seh. Ed. Mervyn Morris. Kingston: Sangster’s, 1993.
---. “Bans a Killin.” Selected 4-5.
• [5] Branca, Nicole (2007). “Language, gender and identity in the works of Louise Bennett and Michelle Cliff.” Honors Projects Overview.
• [6] Cassidy, Frederic Gomes (2007). Jamaica talk: three hundred years of the English language in Jamaica. University of the West Indies Press. ISBN: 978-976-640-170-2
Previously published: Kingston, Jamaica: Macmillan/Sangsters Bookstores, 1982.
• [7] Cassidy, Frederic Gomes, and Robert Brock Le Page (1980) Dictionary of Jamaican English. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• [8] Cooper, Carolyn (2004). Sound Clash: Jamaican Dancehall Culture at Large. Palgrave MacMillan. ISBN 1-4039-6425-4
• [9] Gardner, W. J. (1873). A History of Jamaica, its Discovery by Christopher Columbus to the Present time; Including An Account of its Trade and Agriculture; Sketches of the Manners, Habits, and Customs of all Classes of its Inhabitants; and a Narrative of the Progress of Religion and Education in the Island. Elliot Stock, 62, Paternoster Row, E.C.
• [10] Holm, John (2004). An Introduction to Pidgins and Creoles. University of Coimbra, Portugal. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-58460-4
• [11] Madeira, Benjamin (2015). Translation of 'Bans a killin' from Jamaican Patois to Standard English for the purpose of teaching ESL/EFL. Web. BenjaminMadeira.com - http://www.benjaminmadeira.com/2015/03/bans-killin.html
• [12] Millward, Celia M., and Mary Hayes (2012). A Biography of the English Language (3rd. edition). Wadsworth, Cengage learning. ISBN-13: 978-0-495-90641-4
• [13] Owens, Robert E., Jr. (2012). Language development: an introduction (8th edition). Person Education. State University of New York. ISBN-13:978-0-13-258252-0
• [14] Patrick, Peter L. (2007). “Jamaican Patwa (Creole English).” Creolica. University of Essex.
• [15] Ramazani, Jahan (2006). "A Transnational Poetics," in "American Literary History". Advance Access publication. Oxford University Press. pp 332-359. doi:10.1093/alh/ajj020
• [16] Russell, Thomas (1868). The Etymology of Jamaica Grammar. M. Decordova, Macdougall.
• [17] Svartvik, Jan, and Geoffrey Leech. English - One Tongue, Many Voices , Palgrave Macmillan. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire [England: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006]. ISBN-13:978–1–4039–1829–1
• [18] Walker, Klive (2005). Dubwise: Reasoning from the reggae underground. Toronto: Insomniac Press.
• [19] Wong, Ansel. 1986. “Creole as a language of power and solidarity,” in: Sutcliffe, David & Ansel Wong (eds.). The Language of the Black Experience. Cultural expression through word and sound in the Caribbean and Black Britain. Basil Blackwell. Oxford. pp 109-122.
Louise Bennett ::
The videos and text presented here are formatted for the exclusive and non-profit purpose of teaching English as a Second or Foreign Language (ESL/EFL), also called English Language Learning (ELL). BenjaminMadeira.com provides links to other sites on the internet and doesn't host any files itself.
Video: Louise Bennett, intended for nonprofit, educational use / study purposes only. Videoclip for study purposes only
Youtube Playlist: Bans a Killin - Louise Bennett - Jamaican Patois ::
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Watch: Browns RB Nick Chubb's 40-yard touchdown catch against Steelers
Akron Beacon Journal
The Pittsburgh Steelers closed the gap on the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter. Then Browns running back Nick Chubb opened it up in the fourth quarter.
Up just 35-23 after having a 28-0 lead, the momentum was clearly on the side of the Steelers.
"You can just feel it. On the field, too," NBC's Cris Collinsworth said at one point during the second half on Sunday night.
Chubb swung the momentum the other way. The Steelers blitzed in man coverage, leaving a space for Chubb to get the reception and take it to the end zone with little in his way.
That wasn't the only big play for the Browns tonight. The game started with a huge turnover-turned-touchdown, which was followed up by another big turnover created by the team.
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Category: Max Pacioretty Jersey
Since marshawn lynch mail 2014 carson is eighth year
Don’t be fooled though.That Yankee lineup isn’t too formidable these days, especially minus the DH.It feels like everything is building to this spot.He’s made 1 saves for a save percentage of 91%.Their average scoring margin is -2 and their shooting percentage is 44% as a team which has them ranked 24th.
Neither team scored in the final minute.It’s just that time of year.He has been a contract holdout all season, and while James Conner has done a solid job as the lead running back, the Steelers have missed Bell’s explosiveness.He has 63 hits this year along with 24 RBI in 220 AB’s.McCarthy was expressing a concern that sports betting would lead to corrupted results.
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It’s the first meeting between these teams since a Bucks 117 road win on Oct.The Golden Eagles rushed for 181 yards by way of 35 carries.To find all players born within a certain month and year, for example all players born in December of 1985, choose the month and year with the drop down boxes and then choose the ‘Month and Year Search’ option.Alec Martinez has averaged 23 minutes of ice time per game this year.The rookie receiver was targeted twice, as Kirkwood played just 22 of the team’s 64 offensive snaps — his fewest since being first activated in Week 10.
The Cowboys recently signed veteran offensive linemen Cameron Fleming and Marcus Martin, but Garrett did not speculate on the possibility of moving right tackle La’el Collins to http://www.officialscoloradoavalanche.com/Adidas-Mark-Barberio-Jersey guard.Tech beat visiting UNC 27 last year.2015: Leary started all four games played for the Cowboys…Joe Gibbs Racing renews with Toyota: Joe Gibbs Racing has signed an extension with Toyota Racing, an agreement confirmed by team owner Joe Gibbs on Saturday afternoon at Richmond Raceway.
He already has set the 49ers’ franchise record for receiving yards by a tight end in a season and is within striking distance of the NFL record .Touchdowns won’t come easy in those.They are probably a couple of years further down the road than Limerick in terms of their game-plan, movement, conditioning and in other areas too.African World Cup Qualifier.
Your dad, Popeye Jones, is an assistant coach with the Indiana Pacers.They have a team WHIP of 1 and their FIP as a unit is 4.The team is 3 and has had a couple of really tough losses.For the season they have an ATS record of and an over under record of .
Their kickers have a field goal percentage of 100%.Meanwhile, I wrote in early September on the Bovada odds for the first NFL head coach to be fired.Atlanta played well across the board in its 40 victory against the Arizona Cardinals, looking like the team we expected entering this season.They have returned 9 kicks for 181 Mark Barberio Youth Jersey yards on special teams, ranking 115th in kick return yardage.
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Is hockey to blame for the rise in COVID-19 cases?
By: Wale Aliyu, Boston 25 News
Updated: October 15, 2020 - 12:25 AM
BOSTON — Massachusetts now has 63 communities in its high-risk category including 23 cities and towns whose infection rates increased since last week.
While the rise in cases along the South Shore is likely not due to the hockey outbreaks, Rockland health officials say it’s a factor and now dozens of hockey leagues and thousands of players are growing concerned.
“A few of the teams around me have gotten a few cases like some of the kids and coaches,” said hockey player Owen Benard.
Some parents and players tell Boston 25 the teams have done a good job keeping them informed but were not that surprised hearing about an increase in COVID-19 cases.
“It doesn’t surprise me,” said player Steve Levin. “We wear our masks here but no telling what everyone does.”
“I think what happens is that a lot of people are being relaxed and not taking it as seriously as they did back in March,” said Delshaune Flipp, Rockland’s health agent. “Boston Terriers had a practice, they watched film without masks.”
Flipp says since that mask-less film session a few weeks ago, a coach and a couple of players tested positive, but she doesn’t know how many total cases came from that.
“It was very hard with contact tracing because we didn’t get the rosters until you know mid-week last week,” said Flipp. “So it was a lot of scrambling to be able to get all the communities that were infected. I would say there was seven plus communities that were affected by this.”
Hanover’s Superintendent of Schools Matthew Ferron confirmed one of their students tested positive for COVID-19 over the weekend, and 36 students who are all hockey players with possible close contact to this person are presently in quarantine as a precaution.
“As days go by, it is possible that there may be other positive tests within this cohort, perhaps not,” said Ferron.
He also says, there are many other cases related to youth club hockey on the south shore.
“I’ve been trying to stay away from some of the kids with cases going on,” said Benard. “I stayed back a few practices just so the cases would maybe go down. We try to stay out of locker rooms and we try and stay in the rink as short as possible by getting ready in the car.”
A couple of the club owners and organizers of the different leagues told us off camera they keep regulations tight.
“There are signs everywhere asking kids to wear masks, the kids even must wear them on the ice, coaches must wear them on the bench, there’s only one parent per player, and players don’t dress inside, they come dressed and do so 15 mins before each game,” said one anonymous owner. “The kids are all terrified about potentially going back to phase 2. They tell me a lot of the kids have even been crying about wanting to keep playing. We ask people to not just blame hockey leagues because any time a kid anywhere tests positive, all the kids around them will automatically get tested and with more tests, the numbers will automatically go up.”
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Brooklyn Daily gets action: ‘Disgusting’ recycling center closes
The trash path: Can collecters wheel their finds down E. 15th Street to an illegal recycling center, which locals say is ruining businesses and lowering home values due to its unsanitary conditions.
Photo by Elizabeth Graham
The owner of a controversial E. 15th Street recycling center that nearby residents and merchants said was attracting roaches and mice, but driving shoppers away, closed up his shop following this paper’s report on his center’s squalid conditions.
The owner of Mainstream Recycling Group, which had received numerous violations for operating without a license between avenues U and V, said last week that he shut down operations after our story appeared.
“We agreed with Brooklyn Daily,” said the owner, who refused to give his name. “Our neighbors don’t like us and we want to be courteous.”
Residents living near the recycling center cheered the owner’s decision.
“The whole block is ecstatic about it,” said Gus Savaros, an E. 15th Street resident since 1939 who renamed his street “the Ho Chi Minh trail” after witnessing the constant parade of bottle and can collectors making their way to the recycling center.
Merchants say that business is booming now the recycling center has closed its doors.
“What a difference,” said Bob Kane, who owns an eye glass shop next door. “I can leave my door open and there’s no noise all day long.”
The recycling center opened in April, but was slapped with more than $1,000 in fines for failing to file for the necessary paperwork with the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation.
Yet the Mainstream Recycling Group — which critics say was turning a pretty profit from redeeming recycled bottles and cans — kept paying its fines, leaving the state powerless to impose stiffer penalties, according to state Department of Environmental Conservation Police Captain Francisco Lopez.
“It’s like parking a car illegally,” Lopez explained. “As long as you keep paying the tickets, you’re fine.”
Yet, after our article came out highlighting complaints against the E. 15th Street recycling center, Mainstream Recycling Group’s owner met with state officials and signed an agreement promising not to reopen without the proper permits.
But if he does open again, he won’t be doing it E. 15th Street, the businessman said.
“Probably no,” he said when asked he was going to open again in the same spot.
Beloved Sheepshead Bay caterer sees outpouring of community support after Christmas fire
Three-alarm fire destroys beloved Bassett Caterers in Sheepshead Bay
Nat Grid puts 16-acre Gravesend property for sale, thwarting hopes for new sanitation garage
City Planning proposes suite of new, improved zoning regulations for southern Brooklyn
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Brute socks drunk man in the face
Some goon assaulted a drunk man on Flatbush Avenue near Dean Street on Dec. 17.
The victim told police he’d been arguing with the brute that night, when the man socked him once in the face.
Emergency workers took the victim to New York Methodist Hospital following the assault, according to police, who noted that he was intoxicated.
A former employee of a Fifth Avenue diner threatened his one-time boss on Dec. 12.
The victim told police that the disgruntled worker stormed into the eatery between Ninth and 10th streets at 8:45 pm and said he’d get hurt if he didn’t fork up some dough the man claims he was owed.
Police referred the victim to criminal court to obtain an order of protection, and have closed the case, cops said.
Cat nap
Police arrested a man on Dec. 13 because he took too long feeding his cat at the Flatbush Avenue building where he had been evicted.
A landlord told police the suspect was evicted from his building between Dean and Bergen streets, but that he’s still allowed to come back for an hour at a time to feed his cat.
When the suspect showed up at around 1:35 pm, however, he refused to leave after the allotted hour, so the landlord called the cops, who came and took the man away, according to police.
Rides away
Carjackers descended upon Park Slope in a thieving frenzy that left three vehicle owners without rides earlier this month. Here’s the rundown:
• A thief nabbed an 85-year-old man’s 1998 Honda Accord he left parked on Bergen Street between Fifth and Flatbush avenues from Dec. 4 to 10.
• Some crook rode off with a man’s 2018 Yamaha motorcycle he left on Lincoln Place between Fifth and Sixth avenues from Dec. 7 to 13.
• Another bike thief stole a man’s 2009 BMW he left on Eighth Avenue between First and Second streets at around midnight on Dec. 12. The victim was gone for a little more than two hours, and returned to find an empty spot where his bike had been, cops said.
— Colin Mixson
Crook nab $1,600 worth of electrical wire
Pair of punks slash man for cutting in line
Villain brutally robs senior at Borough Hall subway station
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The Morgue
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Crumbling Broward Courthouse Finally Closing
BY BUDDY NEVINS
Today is the last day to enter the old Broward County Courthouse through its main entrance as contractors prepare to tear it down.
The continued use of that crumbling building for decades past its use-by date is another testimony to how government works.
Or doesn’t work.
Broward County Commissioners tut-tutted about the problem for decades until then-Broward Mayor Stacy Ritter made a new courthouse a priority roughly eight years ago. Ritter — She is now the county’s tourism director — created a Courthouse Task Force and then rammed the long-delayed idea through.
Stacy Ritter
Instead of a replacement, commissioners before Ritter used a Band-Aid approach to the Courthouse problems.
The last major work on the courthouse was in the early 1990s, almost a generation ago. It was an era when there were less judges, less cases and less paperwork. Before the 1990s, the courthouse additions were built in 1970 and 1972.
In the 1990s, additions were sutured on the soon-to-close central courthouse building — a new criminal courts building on the north and a renovated eastern courthouse wing.
What was new then is old now.
The criminal courts building leaks and the eastern building is shabby. The older central courthouse building finally being demolished in is even worse shape.
Lawsuits allege it is a moldy building that sickens courthouse workers.
Broward County Courthouse: Slated for demolition
The lawsuit allegations are no surprise to me. The building was already a dump when I was a cub reporter.
Tearing down the old state courthouse and replacing it is just a start. The leaky Federal Courthouse at NE Third Avenue and East Broward Boulevard also is circling the drain.
I covered the dedication of that federal building in 1979. It was an exercise in poor construction coupled with faulty social engineering.
The courthouse was built with large expanses of open space to cut down on the energy costs, a social goal of the Jimmy Carter Administration. No one in Washington considered whether courthouse folks wearing business suits would congregate in an open-air plaza facing south in soggy South Florida.
If judges, lawyers and others went inside to get out of the sun, they soon found out that the Federal Courthouse leaked. A lot.
Because of construction mistakes, some courtrooms and office have stripped out rugs and are today filled with buckets.
The Federal Courthouse desperately needs replacement, but where is the money going to come from? Downtown Fort Lauderdale business leaders believe a public/private partnership can construct a new building. Typical for government, that idea has percolated for years.
Don’t despair, bureaucrats and electeds say. Government doesn’t work like business, they say. It takes years to cobble together a consensus, track down the money, find the low bidders and start construction.
Case in point is the last state courthouse addition.
Michael A. Shiff – He was the go-to government architect in the Broward’s booming 1980s — first drafted a master plan that proposed the existing criminal courts building in 1983. The courthouse addition wasn’t completed until 1994.
So lawyers and judges don’t hold your breath. Instead, cross your fingers. Maybe you will get a new Federal Courthouse….someday.
Me, I’m still waiting for a Broward Convention Center hotel. I first heard about that one around 1980.
For Immediate Release April 27, 2017
OLD CENTRAL COURTHOUSE ENTRANCE TO CLOSE
Fort Lauderdale, FL – Effective Monday, May 1, 2017, the main entrance that courthouse visitors and staff alike have used for decades will close. The first floor entrance to the central wing of Broward’s Judicial Complex will be closed indefinitely as the court system continues to vacate the soon-to-be demolished building. Visitors to the Judicial Complex, in downtown Fort Lauderdale, will only be able to access the courthouse through the new west wing tower or the third floor rotunda in the east wing.
Though the entrance will be closed, courthouse users will still be able to exit at that location.
17 Responses to “Crumbling Broward Courthouse Finally Closing”
a fool and his money says:
Can’t shut down the old courthouse until you figure out how to bring prisoners in from the jail to courtrooms where they are needed in the new courthouse SAFELY.
The geniuses who designed it forgot. And the geniuses supervising and spending (wasting?) the taxpayers’ money didn’t notice. Didn’t care…
One who knows says:
This is not a good idea (yet). The criminal county judges are still in the old building and will be for quite some time (from what I hear). Now to get to those courtrooms you either have to enter the new courthouse and walk up the ramp (yes – up the ramp because it starts on the 2nd floor of the new wing and ends on the 3rd floor of the north/felony wing). Or you can cross SE 3rd and cross back across the bridge. There will be a lot of very confused people – typical Broward!
Rightwinger says:
Will it crumble Madam Clerk also? Will
Soon be time for her to step down.
Old Timer says:
Convention Center hotel was negotiated in 1978 with Don Peebles … a New York developer who is considering running for mayor up there.
Speaking Out says:
The new 20 story building was designed without input from people who had the right answers about needs and design. As beautiful as it is, there are a lot of defects. Y
You don’t have car salesman design a hospital.
PandaBear says:
You’re right, Rightwinger! Soon she won’t be Forman’s wife anymore, which is the only reason she duped him into marrying her. He will also recover once he’s out of her reach.
Chaz Stevens says:
No, I think we refer to them as architects.
Mr. Safety says:
Oh no! I just got a notice to show up for Jury Duty next Friday, May 5. I am worried.
City Activist Robert Walsh says:
#8-says it all. I mean I feel bad for the people that called for jury duty. Where do you park?.Where do you go to get in?What is w/ this ramp I keep hearing about (should they bring roller skates? I mean go here,go there. I mean really. Same deal w/ the federal courthouse these lawyers all want(you pay for it) a new court house. Fort.lau should not pay one dime ,just cause its in Ft.Lau (move it, anywhere). The vast majority of residents did not even want this county court house. I can’t wait to see the art work they purchased(i’ll bet hundreds of thou). Can you see it now. Guy is in there for stabbing someone,but yet admires the Chagull on the wall(unreal). I hope they have at least say a greeter to tell you where to go. Will see. Per usual what a mess. PS. got to give a shout out to Charlie King(open up the Paper and there he is full color pic(wait) holding a LBGT> sign. You made my day..Boy Mayor Seiler your hot w/ Charlie -county, city, I bet you see him more than your wife).. Charlie, Charlie ,Charlie-or in other words mess,mess,mess……(by the way Mayor I hope we did not pay one dime for that mayor banner at the Prayer(next host a sweat lodge(sweat your sins away -then die. Too funny…..
Jury duty says:
Mr. Safety,
No worries sir. You will be parking in the east garage, once parked, you will walk across the connector on third avenue which feeds into the jury room.
And yes, it makes no sense to close the front doors to the old courthouse when county criminal, dependency, and magistrates are still located in that building. It will be next to impossible for a disabled person to walk or roll the distance and incline. And the navigation alone is very confusing.
Sorry, but with the design of the beautiful new building and all the flaws that are coming / will come to light, the comment
“You don’t have a car salesman design a hospital.” is right on target.
The architects might as well have been car salesman.
tell the truth says:
@#5. Speaking Out @7 Chaz
The courthouse design began circa 2002 with BCC selection committee and Spillis Candela DMJM in Coral Gables. The same design architect then leading the parade who the county spent millions of dollars on design drawings still works there. AECOM bought the firm and tens of millions of dollars more were spent revising the drawings perhaps because of the site selection and smaller footprint once everyone had to get real with a tape measure. Sadly the firm hired a newly minted architect who will go unnamed who hustled his way into the VP position of running the design and construction and had never run a courthouse project. He addressed BCC over the years as lieberman and ritter rammed it thru after bond failed by citizen vote. If a firm has never designed a courthouse before there will be problems. County construction staff couldn’t review drawings to save their life. There was no GSA to oversee and no peer review so the debacle on paper went to bid with an $8,000,000.00 change order as soon as the contract was executed and ink was drying. Ten pounds of dog food only fits in an architect’s 5 lb. bag, not a savvy contractor, who then seized upon every deficiency and error in the uncoordinated CDs. Can’t blame them. Taxpayers cough up the cash. No different from any other county project in the last 20 years++ including the main library facade, airport and the airport runway, and just like the school board, even when just one story. How about some clawback on the millions of dollars in design oversights, errors and omissions? Not in broward. The firm will get another fat contract.
One of the censored Old Hags says:
May 1st, 2017 at 10:35 am
Will these files be buried in the rubble?
04/28/2017 Motion to Dismiss
Party: Respondent Dixon Jenkins Forman, Brenda
04/24/2017 Response to Motion
Party: Petitioner Forman, Howard
04/21/2017 Notice of Filing Designation of Emailing Addresses
Party: Attorney Shields, Johanna
04/21/2017 Motion to Stay
04/17/2017 Notice of Hearing
04/10/2017 Motion for Temporary Relief HUSBAND’S URGENT SECOND MOTION FOR TEMPORARY RELIEF (Support Monies
04/06/2017 Filing Fee Payor: JAMES M STARK ; Userid: CTS-fg/t ; Receipt: 20171FA1A047259;
Amount: $409.00
04/06/2017 Notice of Appearance
04/06/2017 Notice of Unavailability
04/06/2017 Motion to Make Court Records Confidential
03/29/2017 Family Cover Sheet
03/29/2017 Petition (eFiled) HUSBAND’S PETITION FOR DISSOLUTION OF MARRIAGE
03/29/2017 Notice of Related Cases
03/29/2017 Motion for Temporary Relief (Return of Husband’s Vehicle, Medication, Personal Effects, and Restraining Order Relating to Marita
Berthabutt says:
May 2nd, 2017 at 12:29 pm
If the county lets the builder who screwed them at the airport, and screwed them on the court house, build the judicial parking garage, the he must have nude pictures of the county administrator.
Charlotte Greenbarg says:
May 2nd, 2017 at 2:42 pm
No photos…just lots of $$$$ Business as usual in Broward
Ha Ha Ha says:
@14 – Nude pictures are sooo last century!! Nowadays, everyone has a sex tape. And as Paris Hilton, Kim Kardashian, etc. have proven, sex tapes are the new key to fame and fortune!
Jeimias Powerb says:
While packing up my things to move over to the new courthouse, I found a report submitted by then chief Judge Tobin saying that apergillus was found in the building. Aspergilus is a mold that causes aspergillosis and it’s the same disease that affected many of the 9/11 first responders. Are they planning to blow the old building up or tear it down slowly piece by piece? Either way, the surrounding area may be at risk of contracting the disease.
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Daniel Brown. The Poetry of Victorian Scientists: Style, Science and Nonsense
Daniel Brown, The Poetry of Victorian Scientists: Style, Science and Nonsense (Cambridge University Press 2013) xii + 310 pp. Hb £59.99, Pb £18.99, PDF $24.00. ISBN 9781107023376
Daniel Brown’s The Poetry of Victorian Scientists begins with a counterintuitive premise: how does nonsense serve as a foundation for knowledge, allowing for the development of increasingly professional and specialized fields of science during the Victorian period? By subverting the presumption that rational science necessarily eschews nonsensical thinking, Brown demonstrates how Victorian scientific writers actually depended on nonsensical verse forms like the limerick for the development and defence of their ideas. The book’s methodological contribution is in its deliberate deviation from the typical unidirectional move of tracking the influence of science in canonical literary texts. Instead, Brown’s study highlights the bidirectionality of the movement of ideas and approaches between literature and science as not yet truly separate fields. Brown’s account locates the beginning of this division as precisely when science was institutionalized in 1831 by the British Association for the Advancement of Science (BAAS), which explicitly defined science as an intellectual project that did not include metaphysics, what the association deemed an area of philosophical inquiry. William Whewell’s coinage of the word “scientist” nominally separated Victorian science from the metaphysical obsessions of Romantic natural philosophy and literature. Yet poetry remained a crucial imaginative space of “counterfactual play,” where scientists could experiment privately and publically with the potentiality of the nonsensical outside their field’s disciplinary limitations (31). Within the English scientific community, verse served as a powerful method of debate, exploration, and satire.
Brown excitingly explores an understudied archive of writings by physicists and mathematicians, rather than focusing on the long-studied work of evolutionary biologists. With specific emphases on James Clerk Maxwell and James Joseph Sylvester, Brown reveals how “literary” these figures were in their approaches to scientific thinking. The witty use of puns, for instance, became an “audacious” form of theorizing that dared to “affront established ideas” through the play of semantic doubleness (37). The pleasure of the pun couples with the impulse for scientific discovery - both of which involve an act of problem solving. Brown’s account of Victorian science furnishes an additional dimension to the narrow view of the scientific method as driven primarily by laboratory experimentation, showing that the nineteenth-century scientific community clearly relied on literary thought-experiments that could be widely circulated to test their hypotheses and discuss their implications. The deployment of humorous verse, as in the case study of the Red Lion Club, marked the factional divide between the London metropolitan scientists (led by Tyndall and Huxley) and the members of the “North British Group” who challenged the former’s scientific naturalism with a theistic physics. Brown’s focus on this lesser-known group’s strategic use of poetry highlights an unexpected aspect of science’s professionalization: poetry, with its liberatory creativity, allowed science to laugh at and be critical of itself. The whole scientific enterprise, as these debates through poetry revealed, always risked verging on the nonsensical even at its most positivist.
Despite the novelty of Brown’s study of a neglected archive, The Poetry of Victorian Scientists suffers greatly from its organizational structure. The book lacks both an introduction and a conclusion, which places the burden on the reader of surmising the book’s major arguments and of tracing connections and shifts across chapters. For the most part, each chapter is dedicated to a single author, but this simple organizing principle is undermined by Brown’s choice to separate close readings of poems across different chapters and to place unrelated chapters beside one another. Without the necessary signposting within and between paragraphs, transitions within and between chapters, or even guiding notes alongside the body paragraphs, the reader finds himself constantly mired in the book’s overwhelming amount of detail. As most readers will be unfamiliar with these scientists and their writings, the reading experience even for Victorian specialists might prove difficult, especially when the argumentative stakes remain unclear by the book’s end. Even a short interlude or coda would have helped to clarify the book’s key claims. Brown unfortunately misses valuable opportunities to situate his book and its interventions within the fields of Victorian studies, poetry and poetics, and the history of science.
Most suggestive and surprisingly unremarked by reviewers is Brown’s reading of nonsense as a childish mode of thinking or state of being associated with pleasure and play. Throughout his book, Brown characterizes poetic production as an inhabiting of such childishness, which affords a counterintuitively intellectual freedom otherwise not permitted by the decorum of professional science. Nonsense appears to offer a childish respite from the seriousness of science and the adult world it shaped, of intellectual, technological and economic progress encumbered with the various existential challenges that flowed from such ideas as geological time, Darwinian evolution and entropy. (11)
Brown then moves on to define scientific progress as tied to an adulthood that can and must return to the nonsensical as a therapeutic “respite” from the field’s hyperrational demands. By this logic, Brown seems to suggest that science, as a rational endeavor, depends on a pleasurable irrationality to produce new forms of knowledge. From a history of science perspective, this implicit claim provocatively challenges an enduring Enlightenment progress narrative of Victorian science as the triumph of pure rationality. To phrase this in the terms of Brown’s own developmental language, science seems far less maturely logical than it presents itself to be. Brown’s valuation of nonsense or the irrational might also be valuable for disability studies scholarship seeking to critique the ableist underpinnings of science. If the mentally disabled (or in Victorian terms, “mad”) have been historically framed as immature or underdeveloped, what are we to make of science’s unexpected dependence on childlike nonsense?
Travis Lau, University of Pennsylvania
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The Toronto Portraits - Mike Mendes
Welcome to the Toronto Portraits. Every Friday we're going to profile a young, dynamic Torontonian, and each week we're photographing them in a different Toronto neighbourhood.
Mike Mendes, 22 years old. King and John St.
I met Mike Mendes on the patio of an upscale King St. cafe. Stitches, still red, caught my attention; they were perched over his left eye.
"Me and a couple of friends were walking somewhere when we saw a girl getting picked on by a group of five guys. I was just trying to help out. That night at the hospital the cops were asking me how old I was. I checked the clock; 'twenty-two...just now'. Broken nose, black eyes, eight stitches for my birthday."
Raised in Newmarket, Mike moved to Toronto to work in animation. New Threat Apparel is a clothing company he started in his spare time; despite early success he didn't feel like the project was tackling his full potential.
"After a few months I felt like I wanted to do more with it, make a difference in peoples lives. That's when I started Love Everyday, I took the name from one of my tattoos"
Love Everyday is a non-profit branch of New Threat. The proceeds go to helping the under privileged and impoverished communities in Toronto. It's a personal mission for him.
"I run into people on buses, on Queen St, anywhere. I take them for coffee, home for dinner; I get updates on their life. It puts everything into perspective for me, how lucky I've been. The stereotypes...drugs, mental instability...a lot of that is true, but there are many people I've met who've just run into hard times. Divorce, suicide, a death in the family...every story is different. I profile them on my blog, try to give them a bigger voice."
Love Everyday is a sponsor of the Toronto leg of The Warped Tour; they've been trying to get the word out as best they can. Mike seemed more excited about a charity that contacted him recently, however.
"Lakeshore Arts helps out under-privileged kids; they want me to chat about the company and do a workshop with them. A smile is contagious, something as simple as that can mean a lot to someone having a rough day. That's the message I want to get across."
He's not sure how the new scars will make him look in the photographs; I tell him they look great, give him character. It's obvious their significance is much deeper to him than some kind of dark fashion statement.
"The scars and tattoos remind me of the lessons I've learned and the mistakes I've made. I also have 'STAY TRUE' on my knuckles. Positive messages. They're really important to me."
Photos by Mr. Robin Sharp
Teen launches business selling Toronto merch after struggling to find a job
This Toronto florist is selling weed bouquets for Valentine's Day
Toronto man letting public vote on every aspect of his new brand
Toronto dad inspired by his daughter to create swimwear brand for trans girls
Toronto retail worker shares tips on how to be a good customer doing curbside pickup
Edgy American eyewear brand permanently closing its only Toronto store
How these two friends from Toronto built a multi-million dollar swimwear brand
Rep your neighbourhood with Toronto-made custom hoodies popular with hip hop artists
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Mayfield Office
mayfield@burnetts-ea.com
Wadhurst Office
wadhurst@burnetts-ea.com
lettings@burnetts-ea.com
Contact Your Nearest Office
Renting & Letting
Argos Hill, Mayfield
Charming 1930s detached four bedroom family house
Spacious and versatile living accommodation
Annexe/Home Office
Beautiful gardens with far reaching countryside views
Stables and Paddocks
Access to footpaths and bridleways
Gardens, Woodland and Paddocks totaling around 3.5 acres
Further paddocks available by private negotiation
Approx. half a mile to Mayfield village and amenities
VIEWING HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
A very spacious detached family home, with paddocks and grounds of approximately 3 acres (and another paddock) with stables, flexible accommodation including annex/home office potential, kitchen, dining room, conservatory, sitting room, family room, ground floor bedroom with en-suite, master bedroom, three further bedrooms and a bathroom, plus an attic room, charming outlook and gardens and scope to further enlarge, subject to the necessary planning consents. EPC Rating: E.
The property forms a versatile home, dating from the 1930s, enjoying ample windows and lots of light, plus some characterful features typical of the era, including a stone fireplace to the sitting room, corner windows and timbers to the kitchen ceiling.
One approaches via an entrance porch with a further door to the hallway, with window to front and stairs to first floor, doors to the sitting room, with open fireplace with a painted stone surround, window to side and French doors to a paved terrace. A dining room is adjacent, also with a fireplace, housing a modern electric fire and with French doors leading to a conservatory, enjoying glass roof and windows, plus doors to the rear garden and wonderful views across the garden and through the trees to the countryside beyond.
The kitchen is a good sized family kitchen, comprising a range of cream coloured gloss-fronted cupboards and drawers, with wood effect Amtico flooring and black granite worktops, tiled splash backs, integrated one and a half bowl sink with drainer, space for a range cooker, recess housing the fridge/freezer and further under counter space for a dish washer. Window to side overlooking the garden towards the paddocks.
Steps lead up from the kitchen to an area that could be completely self-contained, or could also be a useful breakfast room/family room. There are windows to front and side, tiled flooring and attractive raised ceiling. Off this room is a triple aspect double bedroom with a lovely outlook over the garden to rear, and an en-suite shower room comprising a shower, WC and basin, window to front tiled floor and part tiled walls. This area could also form part of an annex, or indeed contained home office. An arch from the opposite end of the kitchen leads to a rear lobby plus utility room with more space for appliances, windows and doors to the rear garden.
The first floor landing is a bright open space, with a large window to front, balustraded walkway and further stairs to the attic bedroom.
The master bedroom is a good size, with corner windows to front, side and rear, with the rear windows offering a fabulous view across the surrounding countryside. There are ample fitted wardrobes and dressing table. There is a further double bedroom to rear, also with a lovely outlook, plus fitted wardrobes, and a further bedroom to rear, with a fitted cupboard and lovely outlook. A fourth bedroom is at the front of the house.
The attic room offers considerable further potential, either to form bedrooms, or office space, a play room, or just storage. There is a large velux window to rear with lovely views, and the whole room is plastered and carpeted.
Outside to the front are wooden electric gates to a large area of off road parking, surrounded by mature plants, flower bed and fencing. Steps lead down to the front door. One can also access the property via a second driveway, which also provides direct access to the fields, with a track leading to the stable yard. The rest of the garden is mainly to the side and rear of the house, with a paved patio directly behind the house, plus a levelled area of lawn leading to a further seating area from which you get the best view to the countryside beyond.
The rear garden is beautiful, with established flower bed borders, with several tall trees, including a blue Cedar and Oaks. To one side of the house is a chicken coup, whilst to the other is a further patio enjoying an outlook to the paddocks. There is a greenhouse, and stepping stone path from the house to the stable yard.
The Stables form two large boxes, plus a substantial hay store/tack room and/or workshop, suitable for turning into more boxes, if required. Currently the stables have typical stable doors facing the paddocks, whilst the other barn has double doors facing the paddocks and a further door to the yard. There is power and water supplied, and the yard is completely fenced, with a small gate to the garden and five bar gate to the paddocks and track back to the drive. The paddocks are fenced with sheep wire and post fencing, divided into paddocks with five bar gates linking the paddocks, plus a wooded area between the second and third paddock, which is available by separate negotiation. In total, the gardens, paddocks and wooded area total around 3.5 acres. There is also direct access to the disused railway line and the woods for walks, and access back to Mayfield.
The property is situated in the hamlet of Argos Hill, 1 1/2 miles or so from Mayfield High Street, with direct access to footpaths and bridleways, linking to other footpaths and the various lanes around. Mayfield, as the nearest village for shopping provides a small supermarket, butcher, baker, chemist, greengrocer/deli, wine shop, hair salons, clothes shops and post office. There are churches of various denominations, period inns and a Primary School as well as the very well regarded Mayfield School for Girls.
For more comprehensive facilities Royal Tunbridge Wells is approximately 9 miles to the north. The nearest Main-line Rail Service is at Wadhurst, providing a fast and regular service to London Charring Cross, London Bridge and Canon Street. Crowborough station is also within approximately 4 miles. Gatwick is within 30 miles, and the A21, north of Tunbridge Wells provides convenient access to the M25.
There is an excellent choice of education facilities within the general area catering for both the private and state sector. Nearby leisure facilities include tennis, bowls, numerous golf clubs, sailing at the coast and Bewl Water Reservoir. The village has its own Tennis club as well as many beautiful walks and numerous equestrian pursuits are available nearby.
All mains services connected.
Council Tax Band: G
Argos Hill
Mayfield TN20 6NR
County: East Sussex
Sale Type: Under Offer
Melanie Quittenton
Burnett's Estate Agents
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Washington Journal
Role and History of Third Parties in the U.S.
2016-08-13T08:32:26-04:00https://images.c-span.org/Files/541/20160813083432001_hd.jpgDonald Green, author of the book Third-Party Matters, talked about the evolution and impact role of third parties in the United States from the anti-slavery Liberty Party in 1841 to Ross Perot’s Reform Party in the early 1990s.
Donald Green, author of the book Third-Party Matters, talked about the evolution and impact role of third parties in the United States from the anti-slavery Liberty Party in 1841 to Ross Perot’s Reform Party in the early 1990s.
Transcript type Text People Graphical Timeline
Filter by Speaker All Speakers Donald J. Green Ylan Mui
Donald J. Green Adjunct Lecturer Hillsborough Community College (Tampa, FL)->History
Ylan Mui Guest Host C-SPAN
Third-Party Matters
Donald J. Green
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Conquering fear
Papermakers are looking strong after defeating Columbia River and Union
By Dan Trujillo | December 22, 2010 12:00 am | comments
After breaking her left femur last season, Ashley Gjerswold (left) thought she would never have the courage to vault again. On Saturday, the Camas High School senior got back on the runway with the encouragement of her teammates and overcame her fear.
Ashley Gjserwold stepped on to the runway and faced her fear.
It has been a long year of rehab since the Camas High School senior gymnast broke her left femur on the vault during the league jamboree, on Dec. 5, 2009. Since that painful day, Gjserwold never wanted to compete in the vault again. On Saturday, the Camas gymnastics family she loves being a part of gave her the courage to get back on the runway.
“I remember my coach throwing me over during the warm up, and the second time making it all the way over by myself,” Gjserwold said. “Oh my goodness, I did it! I never forget how I felt. I overcame my fear.”
The Papermakers showed plenty of determination Saturday, at the Vancouver Elite Gymnastics Academy in Camas, and defeated longtime nemesis Columbia River by the score of 158.4 to 152.5. On Dec. 11, the Papermakers beat the Union Titans 147.7 to 147.5.
As thrilling as it is to beat both rivals, these victories mean little if Camas does not finish in first or second place at the district meet Feb. 4, at Prairie High School. It is the only way the Papermakers can qualify for state as a whole.
“Beating River shows we can be one or two, maybe even one,” said senior Amanda Bolton.
Audrey Siebenthaler racked up 33.4 points for Camas to finish first in the all-around competition. She captured second on the beam (9.0), second on the floor (9.2), second on the vault (8.5) and third on the bars (6.7).
“I had a lot of fun competing today. I went out there focused, and ready to do my best,” Siebenthaler said. “I love being a part of Camas gymnastics. We’re more like a family than a team. I wouldn’t want to do high school gymnastics anywhere else.”
Bolton earned first on the bars (7.0), and took third all-around (31.1). She also finished fourth on the vault (8.2), sixth on the floor (8.2), and seventh on the beam (7.7).
“Winning bars was awesome. It felt like a super good routine,” Bolton said. “I surprised myself a lot tonight, and I’m excited to see what I can do at districts.”
Grace Giorano grabbed fifth all-around (30.1). She earned second on bars (6.8), sixth on vault (8.0), seventh on floor (8.1), and ninth on beam (7.2). Hayden Sutton snatched sixth all-around (29.85). She finished sixth on beam (8.2), seventh on bars (6.0), eighth on floor (7.85), and eighth on vault (7.8).
The Camas gymnastics family has never been prouder of Gjserwold for vaulting over her fear.
“For her to just go out and do it shows how amazing a gymnast she is,” Siebenthaler said. “That takes a lot of confidence.”
“It was a great night for us, but what I’ll remember most is [Gjserwold] vaulting,” Bolton said. “She represents our team. The girls look up to her a lot.”
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On the sidelines: No trespassing
By Dan Trujillo | September 15, 2012 12:00 am | comments
The sun sets on the horizon, as the Washougal and Fort Vancouver high school football teams play at Fishback Stadium Friday night. The Panthers tore the Trappers to shreds 74-7.
The Camas and Washougal high school football teams defended their hometowns Friday night.
The Panthers tore the Fort Vancouver Trappers to shreds 74-7 and the Papermakers mauled Auburn Mountainview 45-14.
Matt Randall made three trips to the end zone for Washougal. The senior caught a 9-yard touchdown pass from Guy LaRue, and returned a fumble and an interception for touchdowns. He snagged a Fort Vancouver pass out of the end zone, ran the length of the field and scored a touchdown.
Austin Tofell had four touchdowns and an interception. Bobby Jacobs delivered some heavy hits on defense and added a touchdown run on offense. Brandon Casteel collected three touchdowns. Randy Gubser and Adam Thomas also intercepted passes, and Chase Duey and Joe Philbin recovered fumbles.
Over in Camas, Zach Eagle picked off two passes on defense that set the Papermakers up for touchdowns. The first one was on a 13-yard run by Nate Beasley. The second one came off a 44-yard swing pass from Reilly Hennessey to Vince Huber.
Beasley added a second touchdown in the third quarter. Huber also soared into the end zone for his second touchdown. John Norcross finished off a goal line rush in the first quarter. Roldan Alcobendas kicked a 52-yard field goal and Jack Beall caught a 6-yard touchdown pass from Hennessey in the second quarter.
Camas and Washougal will take their show on the road next week. The Panthers head to Clatskanie, Ore., and the Papermakers travel to Lakewood to tackle Lakes. Both games begin at 7 p.m.
Read more about both of these games in Tuesday’s print edition of the Post-Record.
See you on the sidelines.
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Could This Cancer Cure from the Sea Save Thousands of Lives Each Year?
By Lee Euler / October 20, 2013
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, lung cancer kills more Americans than any other type of cancer.
In the year 2009, it claimed about 158,081 lives. Those unfortunate victims probably didn’t know about one of Mother Nature’s top-notch cancer killers. Laboratory research indicates that a plant chemical found in certain types of seaweed could have the right stuff to clobber lung cancer cells. Keep reading…
Continued below…
Alzheimer’s Herb Works Better Than Drugs
Big Pharma sets sights on wonder extract that works BETTER than leading Alzheimer’s drugs!
But you can still get your hands on the safer, natural version today…before they try to sell it to you for hundreds of dollars. Go HERE for the full story.
It’s called fucoidan and is found in edible brown seaweeds such as bladder wrack, kombu and wakame.
Oriental medicine has a long history of using these plants for curing ailments. Now it appears that Western scientists have discovered their healing value, too.
Researchers began investigating the health effects of fucoidan in 1970. Since then, the positive benefits have been confirmed by more than 700 studies published in the National Library of Medicine’s database.
For example, laboratory studies have shown that fucoidan can…
Stop cancer cells dead in their tracks!
Scientific studies have confirmed that fucoidan has anticancer agents that mount a two-pronged approach against cancer cells.
In one study1, scientists determined that fucoidan stopped the migration of existing lung cancer cells before they invade other parts of your body. Study authors reported that, depending on the dose, fucoidan inhibited cell migration by anywhere from 25 percent to as much as 57 percent after 48 hours.
They also found that if cancer cells did migrate—fucoidan formed a protective barrier to help healthy cells fight off the corrupting cancer cells.
But fucoidan provides another form of protection against lung cancer when it…
Causes cancer cells to commit hari-kari!
Studies have also shown that anticancer agents in fucoidan cause certain types of rapidly growing cancer cells to explode. This natural process of apoptosis is the mechanism your body uses to purge harmful cells from your system. It appears that fucoidan acts like a fuse that sets off the explosion.
Researchers at Dalian Medical University in China2 mentioned that this reaction has been observed in breast, liver and lung cancer cells as well as in leukemia cells.
Not only does fucoidan send cancer cells running for cover—but it also has other health-preserving benefits.
Studies have also demonstrated that this simple seaweed component…
Helps keep your heart beating longer and stronger!
If you’re concerned about keeping your cardiovascular system healthy—fucoidan may be just the thing for you.
Researchers have found that fucoidan stops smooth muscle cells from increasing rapidly3. This can be especially important for preventing blocked arteries in heart patients who’ve had stents inserted.
One study4 confirmed this effect when investigators gave rabbits intramuscular and intravenous injections of fucoidan.
In another study5 using lamb hearts, researchers deliberately induced heart damage through oxygen deprivation. After exposing some of the lamb hearts to fucoidan, they noticed three improvements:
Better recovery of left ventricular function,
Increased coronary blood flow, and
Improved myocardial oxygen consumption after ischemia
How does fucoidan manage to do all this? One study6 showed that fucoidan blocks cell receptors called selectins. These receptors help white blood cells (leukocytes) stick to capillary walls. When this sticking occurs, it can cause tissue damage and ultimately cause your arteries to harden.
By blocking selectin, fucoidan stops leukocytes from migrating to blood vessel walls to cause heart damage.
Fucoidan also acts as a natural blood thinner, which also could explain its ability to protect your heart… blood vessels… and other vital organs.
The anti-cancer and heart healthy benefits of fucoidan provide plenty of proof that this is a first-class health healer. But on top of this, fucoidan has also been shown to…
Stamp out killer viruses!
Fucoidan doesn’t cringe when facing nasty viruses. In vitro and animal studies7 show it goes to work on coated viruses such as herpes and HIV.
It even put the brakes on a type of herpes virus called human cytomegalovirus that can lead to blindness and deadly pneumonia if your immune system is compromised.
Experiments suggest that fucoidan gives viruses a one-two punch by inhibiting:
The initial stages of viral infection, such as attaching to and penetrating host cells, and
The later replication stages after virus penetration.
Fucoidan’s ability to inhibit the herpes virus may explain why Japan has a much lower incidence of herpes simplex virus type 2 infections, compared with the west.
The Japanese diet features a variety of dishes made from fish, rice, the soybean paste miso and seaweeds. Because the Japanese bulk up on these foods, perhaps they enjoy a greater level of protection!
Before you chalk it up to coincidence—consider that in the Japanese island of Okinawa, residents enjoy low blood cholesterol levels, little to no heart disease and rarely die by stroke or cancer.
Both scientific and anecdotal evidence seem to point to the fucoidan in seaweed as a simple and nutritious solution to preventing or healing a wide variety of health problems.
Meanwhile — as you know — a lot of foods aren’t good for you at all. In our last issue, we wrote about the one that may be the most toxic food legally sold in your supermarket. If you missed the news, scroll down and read it now.
This Could be the Most Toxic Food
In Your Supermarket
If you believe commercials, chewing gum on a regular basis makes life better. The habit can help you lose weight, keep your breath fresh, and even protect and clean your teeth.
Sounds nice enough. And because you don’t swallow chewing gum, it’s natural not to worry about what’s used to make the product. But if you look at the actual ingredients in chewing gum brands, they tell a different story…
Colonoscopy Crisis: Why are these doctors
canceling colonoscopies?
This video is not for the faint of heart.
These recently discovered details are gruesome…but they change everything we know about colonoscopies.
And many doctors will not reveal this information to their patients. Why? Because they can’t stand to part with the $7,000 (or more) price tags.
Just watch one minute of this presentation and you’ll understand–canceling your next colonoscopy could be the best decision you’ve ever made for your health.
When you’re ready–visit here.
If you’re 50, and especially if you’re over 65–you must watch this presentation. This new information regarding colonoscopies could save your life.
The toxic ingredients of chewing gum
Here’s why gum may be the most toxic product you can buy in a store that’s legally intended for internal use. It contains, in varying levels, the following disease-causing ingredients:
Titanium dioxide: Commonly used as a whitening agent in chewing gum. Unfortunately, this potentially carcinogenic agent has been implicated in the development of certain autoimmune disorders including Crohn’s disease and asthma. Chewing gum, in fact, has the highest levels of titanium dioxide out of all foods commonly consumed by children, with manufactured sweets and candies coming in close behind.
Butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT): This particularly toxic compound has been banned in several countries including the United Kingdom and Japan, but in the U.S. it’s commonly used as a preservative. BHT is potentially carcinogenic and has been implicated in health issues like kidney and liver damage, organ system toxicity, and even hyperactivity in children of younger ages, possibly leading to ADHD.
Gum base: Gum manufacturers typically slap this ingredient on a label, though few people know what it means. In reality, it’s a mix of resins, plasticizers, fillers, and elastomers. Which, looked at in more detail, include polyvinyl acetate (that’s carpenter’s glue), talc (which has previous links to cancer including lung and ovarian cancer), and paraffin wax derived from petroleum. You might as well chew on tire rubber and plastic.
Aspartame: We’ve written about the risks of artificial sweeteners before, and aspartame is no exception. It’s been linked to brain tumors and cancers, as well as diabetes, neurological disorders, and birth defects. And once aspartame is metabolized into your body it turns into wood alcohol and formaldehyde.
Acesulfame potassium (acesulfame K): Little is known about this compound, besides the fact that it has properties similar to aspartame. It’s also believed to be a carcinogen, and animal studies have shown a correlation between different types of tumors and acesulfame potassium.
Calcium casein peptone: Also known as calcium phosphate, this substance is a highly processed derivative of milk and is believed to be used as a whitening agent in certain brands of gum. There’s simply not enough known about this compound.
Sorbitol, xylitol, mannitol, and maltitol: These are sugar alcohols made from sugar but altered enough to legally be considered “sugar free.” None are particularly good for the body (about as good for you as sugar), and side effects include abdominal pain and diarrhea. I know this news about xylitol will surprise some of my readers, because many in the alternative health community think it’s an ideal sugar substitute. As an ingredient in gum, it apparently does help whiten teeth and prevent tooth decay. But our research indicates you should avoid it. Xylitol is known to be lethal to animals and may have negative effects on children who consume xylitol gum.
Which brings us to a question that might be on your mind: Since you don’t swallow gum, is it even worth worrying about these ingredients? In fact, swallowing is almost better than chewing on it. Then at least it would have to pass through your digestive system where your body would work to filter out some of the toxins.
Instead, thanks to continuous chewing over an extended period of time, toxic ingredients in chewing gum get absorbed through the walls of your mouth and directly into your bloodstream.
Gum causes other problems than cancer…
Besides the slew of cancer-causing ingredients, there are other reasons chewing gum is bad for your health. For starters, it causes wear-and-tear of the cartilage along your jaw joints. This cartilage acts as a shock absorber for those joints. If it’s worn out, jaw movement can become extremely painful.
Regular gum-chewing also puts pressure on the nerves that run through various muscles in your face. It takes eight different facial muscles to chew gum, and the accumulation of pressure can lead to tightness in the muscles, in turn leading to chronic headaches.
And, no, chewing gum does not help with weight loss. Studies show regular gum-chewers actually tend to be overweight, likely because the sweetness of gum leads to more sugar cravings. On top of that, fruits and vegetables can taste bitter after chewing gum.
Note that chewing gum can also damage dental fillings or braces. If you have dental fillings with mercury, chewing gum can break them down and release toxic mercury vapor into your body. And if you chew gum made with real sugar, that regular coating of sugar on your teeth can cause cavities.
The anti-cancer chew
Before I close, I feel I should tell you about an interesting twist to gum and cancer. Finnish researchers appear to be working on a special type of chewing gum that actually keeps cancer at bay. They made a gum with a compound that cleans up acetaldehyde levels in the mouth.
Acetaldehyde is a chemical that’s been linked to cancers of the mouth, stomach, and esophagus. In this particular brand of gum, there’s a chemical called cysteine that gets slowly released as you chew. Cysteine reacts with acetaldehyde so it is no longer harmful. And although research proves cysteine reduces acetaldehyde levels in the mouth, researchers have yet to prove whether this can actually reduce cancer cases.
If it works, it’ll be particularly beneficial to those who smoke and drink heavily. Doing either raises the levels of acetaldehyde in your mouth and the upper part of your digestive tract. It’s certainly not a substitute for healthy habits, and the best way to avoid cancer is not to smoke, drink heavily, or engage in any other behaviors that harm your body.
A gum like this is more likely to help those whose genes put them at higher risk, as opposed to their behaviors, such as people who suffer from the condition called achlorhydria, in which the stomach doesn’t make enough acid. A gum like this might—emphasis on might—help reduce their likelihood of developing gastric cancer.
The natural gum solution
If you simply can’t resist the urge to chew, at least go for a natural gum. Many of these are made from chicle, from a tree native to Central America. At one time, all chewing gum was made from this, but it requires a manufacturing expense few companies care to take on. However, you can buy natural gum online and at most health food stores.
Or, if you’re worried about your breath, then tote around a small bottle of organic, food-grade peppermint oil. One drop in your mouth achieves the same effect as chewing gum, but without risking your health.
Lee Euler, Publisher
Footnotes from 1st article:1Lee, H., Kim, J., Kim, E. (2013). Fucoidan from seaweed fucus vesiculosus inhibits migration and invasion of human lung cancer cell via pi3k-akt-mtor pathways. Retrieved online at
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3511566/2Yang L, Wang P, Wang H, Li Q, Teng H, Liu Z, Yang W, Hou L, Zou X. Fucoidan derived from Undaria pinnatifida induces apoptosis in human hepatocellular carcinoma SMMC-7721 cells via the ROS-mediated mitochondrial pathway.Mar Drugs. 2013 Jun 10;11(6):1961-76. doi: 10.3390/md11061961.3Logeart D, Prigent-Richard S, Jozefonvicz J, Letourneur D. Fucans, sulfated polysaccharides extracted from brown seaweeds, inhibit vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation. I. Comparison with heparin for antiproliferative activity, binding and internalization. Eur J Cell Biol. 1997; 74: 376-384.4Deux JF, Meddahi-Pelle A, Le Blanche AF, Feldman LJ, Colliec-Jouault S, Bree F, Boudghene F, Michel JB, Letourneur D. Low molecular weight fucoidan prevents neointimal hyperplasia in rabbit iliac artery in-stent restenosis model. Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol. 2002; 22: 1604-1609.
5Miura T, Nelson DP, Schermerhorn ML, Shin’oka T, Zund G, Hickey PR, Neufeld EJ, Mayer JE Jr. Blockade of selectin-mediated leukocyte adhesion improves postischemic function in lamb hearts. Ann Thorac Surg. 1996 Nov;62(5):1295-300.
7Hoshino T, Hayashi T, Hayashi K, Hamada J, Lee JB, Sankawa U. An antivirally active sulfated polysaccharide from Sargassum horneri (TURNER) C. AGARDH. Biol Pharm Bull. 1998 Jul;21(7):730-4.
Additional resources from 1st article:
Canceractive charity database. 2013. Natural compound in seaweed kills cancer cells. Article available at
http://www.canceractive.com/cancer-active-page-link.aspx?n=2887&Title=Fucoidan
Ell, C. 2011. Fucoidan for lung cancer. Livestrong, Article available online at
http://www.livestrong.com/article/494315-fucoidan-for-lung-cancer/
References from 2nd article:
“5 Common Chewing Gum Ingredients That May Cause Cancer.” By Dr. Mercola, reposted on Food Matters.
http://www.foodmatters.tv/articles-1/5-common-chewing-gum-ingredients-that-may-cause-cancer
“Chew on this: the gum that fights cancer.” By Michael Hopkin, Nature. 22 May 2006.
http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060522/full/news060522-3.html
“Health Issues From Chewing Gum.” By Megan Churchwell, Aug 16, 2013 for Livestrong.
http://www.livestrong.com/article/160906-health-issues-from-chewing-gum/
“Is Chewing Gum the Most Toxic Substance in the Supermarket?” by Matthew Christodoulou, Collective Evolution. 11 September 2012.
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2012/09/11/is-chewing-gum-the-most-toxic-substance-in-the-supermarket/
“Why A Stick Of Gum Is More Harmful To Your Health Than Anything That You Eat.” By C. Thomas Corriher. The Health Wyze Report.
http://healthwyze.org/index.php/component/content/article/383-why-a-stick-of-gum-is-more-harmful-to-your-
health-than-anything-that-you-eat.html
“Why Chewing Gum Isn’t Great for Your Health.” By Ben Kim, posted under Health Warnings for Dr. Ben Kim.
http://drbenkim.com/articles-gum.html
“Xylitol.” WebMD: Vitamins and Supplements.
http://www.webmd.com/vitamins-supplements/ingredientmono-996-XYLITOL.aspx?activeIngredientId=996&
activeIngredientName=XYLITOL
“Xylitol — Is It Safe or Effective?” by Rami Nagel for Natural News. 10 April 2008.
http://www.naturalnews.com/022986_xylitol_health_sugar.html
Are Your Houseplants Really Purifying Your Air?
Jan 20, 2021 / By Lee Euler
Hard Time Losing Weight? This Could be the Reason…
The “Fear of Finding Out”
Can Result in Advanced Cancer
Testing Breakthrough in
Diagnosing Prostate Cancer
The Overlooked Grocery Store Superfood
You Can Easily Grow Yourself!
Coffee: “Wonderful Natural Medicine”
or Trigger for Cancer?
COVID Lockdowns Put
Cancer Patients in Danger
Dec 30, 2020 / By Lee Euler
Why Does Your Immune System
Struggle to Fight Cancer?
India’s Cancer-Fighting Herb Can Help Treat and Prevent Cancer
Lee Euler
Hi I'm Lee Euler, I’ve spent over a decade investigating every possible way a person can beat cancer. In fact, our commitment to defeating cancer has made us the world’s #1 publisher of information about Alternative Cancer Treatments -- with over 20 books and 700 newsletters on the subject. If you haven't heard about all your cancer options, or if you want to make sure you don’t miss even one answer to this terrible disease, then join our newsletter. When you do, I'll keep you informed each week about the hundreds of alternative cancer treatments that people are using to cure cancer all over the world.
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Latest Survivor Story
Wonderful Choice for Me! - Kris Merlo Robinson
I went to the Hufeland German Cancer Klinik in March-April 2010 for 6 weeks, July 2010 for 3 weeks, and November 2010 for 3 weeks.
My follow-up treatment in March-April 2011 was great. I had a successful 9th fever therapy treatment. The ultrasound diagnostics taken on me look great, my tumor markers are extremely low and my follow-up blood work back in the States was nearly perfect!
I will return to Hufeland Klinik in July and have a 10th fever treatment. My plan is to then return to the clinic once a year for follow-up and a fever push or two. I continue on their maintenance plan and I work with naturopaths stateside to continue care.
Also, the administrators at Hufeland are working on a new website and have a Facebook page and I am helping them edit a beautiful brochure about their clinic.
Wonderful choice for me! Never missed a beat choreographing gymnastics since diagnosis.
Mrs. Kris Merlo Robinson
January 20, 2021 / By Lee Euler
January 6, 2021 / By Lee Euler
December 30, 2020 / By Lee Euler
Your Heart is Virtually Immune to Cancer. Here’s Why…
Copyright text 2020 by Cancer Defeated.
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The Chase Group Secures VP of Information Technology for Isis Pharmaceuticals
The Chase Group is proud to announce the completion of a search for a VP of Information Technology for Isis Pharmaceuticals. This senior level role provides technology leadership and strategic direction for the corporate IT function. To learn more about The Chase Group’s strength in securing senior leadership talent, contact us at chase@chasegroup.com.
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I promise to use it only to send you Cheap DVDS Advisor.
There is an ongoing war between the vampires and the werewolves in Underworld
In Underworld, it is one that is mired in
violence and multigenerational hatred
Horror films are full of creepy creatures and things that go bump in the night. Movies such as the classic Universal horror flicks of the thirties have created a whole mythological world inhabited by creatures such as vampires and werewolves. Underworld represents a clash between these two forms of monsters here portrayed as a feud between cultures. While this film is an interesting concept for the die hard horror fan the implementation here leaves a bit to be desired.
There is an ongoing war between the vampires and the werewolves, one that is mired in violence and multigenerational hatred. Selene (Kate Beckinsale) is the Death-Dealer, a vampire who specializes in the assassination of Lycans, the vampire name for the werewolves. She is planning on assuming the leadership of the vampire nation but this move is under internal attack by Kraven (Shane Brolly) whose challenge is based on the growing threat of vampire - werewolf hybrids. These hybrids threaten the security of vampires by having the best attributes of both creatures, the speed and strength of the vampires combined with the ability to move in the light. Selene awakens the ancient vampire Viktor (Bill Nighy) from his centuries of sleep to help sort out the mess. To add to the mix she is also becoming romantically, well at least physically, involved with an intern Michael (Scott Speedman). Their relationship takes a really bad turn when Michael is bitten by a werewolf.
Perhaps it’s not politically correct to note but these inter-species affairs never turn out well. As noted previously this has the potential for an interesting screen play. Since the Underworld story involves a significant departure from the standard mythos more exposition was desperately needed. I felt that that audience was thrown into the mix without enough character development to ground the audience and induce the much needed emotional investment in their predicament. In an apparent effort to compensate for a lacking dialogue certain scenes are lifted from other popular films. Some of the action appears to have been done in the vein (pun intended) of the Blade and Matrix flicks. When Selene visits the vampire armory (never knew they needed one), we see the vampire equivalent of James Bond’s beloved ‘Q’. There is even a touch of the classics with the love story between two feuding houses, sort of a Romeo and Juliet with fangs. There is little here for the audience to sink their teeth into (okay, the puns will stop, I couldn’t help it). Between the light dialogue, internal inconsistencies and general disregard for the nature of physics, a film with potential is relegated to something best seen on late night cable.
Unfortunately the cast falls a bit short in Underworld. Beckinsale is a beautiful actress. Much to my wife’s chagrin, I think she looks incredible in the Matrix issued, skin tight black rubber outfits. Here she continues a trend of films that include Brokedown Palace, Last Days of Disco and Pearl Harbor where she regrettably fails short of giving enough emotions to pull of the character. Speedman seems to drift through the film unable to maintain the emotional level of commitment to make even the love story work. Brolly does a passable job as the somewhat over the top villain. I would have loved to have seen a top notch villain like Gary Oldman in this role. Now there is an actor that could have brought some life to this tale. Nighy role demand an increasing amount of decaying makeup. While the best of actors would find such appliances difficult to act through he does his best as the venerable former vampire leader. In all there is a lack of connection between the members of the cast.
Director Len Wiseman started his professional career in the art department mostly involved with the prop area. His credits in this field include Stargate and Independence Day. He brings a great deal of interesting visual aspects to the film but there is really little substance behind it. This is not only his first time as director he also wrote the screen play here. While this is an interesting start there is much work ahead of him. For one thing the pacing is uneven. What expository information there is finds itself punctuated by the almost random violence. As a screen writer he concentrates too much on the plethora of sub plots instead of giving a bit more background. In a film like Underworld the audience needs a well established set of rules. It really doesn’t matter if the rules are realistic as long as they are followed within the context of the story. The inconsistencies mount up until the viewers cannot help but to be distracted. On the up side the sets are perfect Goth, they are atmospheric, dark and well done. The lighting conveys a sense of danger that the story unfortunately cannot maintain. A little less use to strobe lights would have been nice. he framing mostly centers on the main field of vision without the usual widescreen additional details. In many films it is those little things happening almost off camera that add to the realism.
At least the Underworld DVD mastering was done with some attention to detail. The Dolby 5.1 soundtrack is typical well done with fairly good use of the surround speakers. The ambience provides an echoing almost haunting feeling. There is one caveat, the audio is mix is extremely loud. I had to pull the gain down to listen at a comfortable level.For the most part the anamorphic 2.35:1 video was crisp and clear. Even in the darkest scenes there was little in the way of defects although I did not a little breakup at the edges. The disc was light on extras. The included featurettes show some of the details in production but I had the feeling that I’ve seen it all before. There is an animated comic book that held my interest but I can’t see myself returning to it anytime in the near future. Underworld is mostly eye candy, intriguing to look at but not exactly something that you have to pay attention to in order to understand what is going on. Hard core horror fans may get into Underworld a bit more but for most investing in the graphic novels of similar theme would be best.
Review by Doug MacLean of hometheaterinfo.com
If You Are Done Reviewing Underworld then,
Click Here To Return To The DVD Reviews Page
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Former ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ Contestants, Trixie Mattel and Katya Zamolodchikova Debut their ‘UNHhhh’ podcast
Julia Dzurillay
Trixie Mattel and Katya have never sounded better. This duo finally debuted their comedy podcast series and, oh honey, fans can’t get enough. Binge while working out. Laugh along while in the shower. Here’s what we know about UNHhhh and future episodes available for listening.
Talking about your mom's ass has never been easier UNHhhh: The Podcast is bringing your fave classic UNHhhh moments to podcast form! Listen to the first fifteen episodes TODAY, link in bio~
A post shared by World of Wonder (@worldofwonder) on Mar 25, 2020 at 12:13pm PDT
These biological women are headed to Spotify with their new podcast
These legends, icons, and stars at it again. This time with a new project — a podcast based on their comedy YouTube series-turned WOWPResents Plus special, UNHhhh.
This podcast shares the same name and touches on some of life’s greatest hardships, from money to social media. There are 15 episodes of this podcast available, although they mostly feature snippets from already released episodes of the YouTube series.
These podcasts are available for listening on Spotify and most other streaming platforms. Although, some report that the podcast episodes are not yet available on Apple Podcasts. Still, some fans shared their excitement on social media. One comment on Instagram read, “I love watching UNHhhh episodes before bed so podcast form is going to be even better.”
“I mean you guys can just record Trixie and Katya in general and they’ll still be hilarious,” another comment read. However, this isn’t the first time Trixie Mattel or Katya appeared on a podcast series.
Trixie Mattel and Katya worked together for a book and their Viceland series
Sure, they talk about religion, babies, and Barbies on YouTube, but Trixie Mattel and Katya previously worked on a Viceland series, entitled The Trixie and Katya Show. Their book, Trixie and Katya’s Guide to Modern Womanhood, debuts during July 2020. Until then, fans can watch episodes of UNHhhh on YouTube and the streaming platform, WOWPresents Plus.
“We were both so scared [on Drag Race],” Trixie Mattel said during an interview with GQ. “On YouTube, we were emboldened to just make whatever jokes we wanted. Some of the jokes are truly just freaky. Weird.”
Fans can also see the duo on their Netflix web series, I Like to Watch. Miss Mattel also keeps busy with her Trixie Cosmetics makeup line. She recently released her studio album, Barbara, and went on her Grown Up tour with a live band. As for Katya, the Russian biological woman appeared in RuPaul’s Netflix original series, AJ and the Queen.
Trixie Mattel and Katya Zamolodchikova perform onstage | Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic for Clusterfest
A few ‘Drag Race’ alumni have podcasts available for binge-watching
Trixie Mattel and Katya are not the first RuPaul’s Drag Race contestants to debut their podcasts. Winner of All-Stars 2, Alaska 5000 and season 4 contestant, Willam, have their humor-filled podcast titled Race Chaser. A number of the episodes are filled with hot gossip and their experiences together.
Of course, RuPaul features former contestants on her podcast with Michelle Visage, titled RuPaul: What’s the Tee? First premiered during 2014, RuPaul even talks to celebrities from Robyn to Nicki Minaj, who formerly appeared on the reality series.
Episodes of UNHhhh premiere on a weekly basis on YouTube and the streaming platform WOWPresents Plus. New episodes of RuPaul’s Drag Race debut on VH1 Friday nights.
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Chelmsford Diocese Advice Regarding New National Lockdown
Chelmsford Diocese has written to clergy, churchwardens, Licensed Lay Ministers and Lay Chairs following the Prime Ministers announcement of a new national lockdown. The email reads as follows:
New National Lockdown
The Prime Minister has this evening announced a new national lockdown across England.
The accompanying Government guidance states that ‘you can leave home to attend or visit a place of worship for communal worship’ during the lockdown period.
However, as you are aware we continue to be the worst hit area of the country and our hospitals are now under extraordinary pressure. We must do all that we can to protect the most vulnerable in our communities and the NHS.
We therefore strongly advise that following the Feast of Epiphany on Wednesday, all services should move online (with no congregation physically present). The only exception to this is funerals. We also advise that any face to face meetings take place by other means or are cancelled.
The Church of England has also issued a statement this evening which can be read here.
We will be in touch again with further information as the details and implications of this new lockdown become clearer.
In the meantime we repeat our thanks for all that you continue to do in your parishes and communities during this most difficult of times.
The Diocesan Communications Group.
Furher information
Chelmsford Diocese Covid-19 guidance and support
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Chemistry | Cheminformatics | Software | Chem Citric Acid Monohydrate
Search Chemical
Compound 2 CheckMol TMF02:r0:m0 MF=C6H10O8 MW=210.14 14 12 0 0 0 999 V2000 0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.7668 -1.2858 -0.0000 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.0354 -2.5716 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.2767 -1.2740 -0.0000 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.7866 -1.2622 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.5335 -2.5598 -0.0000 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.5335 0.0354 -0.0000 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.2885 -3.8456 -0.0000 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2.2885 1.3448 -0.0000 C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.7984 -3.8338 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.5453 -5.1314 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1.5453 2.6542 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3.7984 1.3566 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.6424 -1.2268 -0.0000 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 4 6 1 0 0 0 0 4 7 1 0 0 0 0 6 8 1 0 0 0 0 7 9 1 0 0 0 0 8 10 2 0 0 0 0 8 11 1 0 0 0 0 9 12 2 0 0 0 0 9 13 1 0 0 0 0 M END
Get smiles
Search on Chemryt
₹ 0.00 0.00
Quantity In Units : 1
SKU Code: CH136126
Properties & Information
Property Name Property Value
Mol Name Citric Acid Monohydrate
Molweight 192.123
Monoisotopic Mass 192.027005
Clogp -2.1297
Clogs 0.071
H Acceptors 7
H Donors 4
Total Surface Area 130.08
Relative Psa 0.70357
Druglikeness 3.5617
Mutagenic none
Tumorigenic none
Reproductive Effective none
Irritant high
Shape Index 0.53846
Molecular Flexibility 0.87486
Molecular Complexity 0.57762
Fragments 1
Non H Atoms 13
Non Ch Atoms 7
Electronegative Atoms 7
Rotatable Bonds 5
Sp3 Atoms 7
Symmetric Atoms 4
Acidic Oxygens 3
Smiles OC(CC(O)=O)(CC(O)=O)C(O)=O.O
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Company profile , trade leads and products are user generated content.
Molecule Properties are generated theoretically any objection please contact us
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ball&stick
Color Atom
Dot Surface
Color cpk
Color Str
Iso-vdw
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Our Favorite Variants
Swapmate Chess with Zillions-of-Games
Usual-Moving
Usual-Modest
Games on Same Board
This page is written by the game's inventor, Adrian Alvarez de la Campa.
Swapmate Chess
Played like standard Chess, except that pieces have swap 'mates', which they can swap places with.
In addition to FIDE rules:
In addition to their normal moves, pieces can switch places with certain other pieces of the same side. Rooks can swap places with Bishops, Queens with Knights, and Kings with Pawns.
The King cannot swap if he is in check. A Pawn switching places with the King on the eighth rank promotes. A Pawn may be swapped onto the first rank and regains its double move on the second rank.
See also: Switching Chess.
This 'user submitted' page is a collaboration between the posting user and the Chess Variant Pages. Registered contributors to the Chess Variant Pages have the ability to post their own works, subject to review and editing by the Chess Variant Pages Editorial Staff.
By Adrian Alvarez de la Campa.
Web page created: 2006-03-12. Web page last updated: 2006-03-12
Swapmate Chess. Pieces have "mates" which they can swap places with. (8x8, Cells: 64)
Gary Gifford wrote on 2006-12-04 UTCExcellent ★★★★★
I recently played a game of this and found it to be quite fun and very challenging. It is in the category of Switching Chess and Swap Chess; However, Rooks can only swap places with Bishops (no matter where they are on the board), Queens with Knights, and Kings with Pawns. I'm not sure if a piece pinned to the King (say a Queen) would be allowed to swap places with a Knight. I would hope not... but do not know. Anyway, a very nice game with limited swapping. The fact that Kings cannot swap while in check is an important aspect of the game. Great job, Adrian.
Adrian Alvarez de la Campa wrote on 2006-03-13 UTC
1. There is no rule against a Pawn swapping with a King on the first rank. As stated, the Pawn will only regain the double step when on the second rank. Maybe I'll try to make this more clear.
2. Because the King cannot swap when in check, he is not much more difficult to attack. A King swapping with a Pawn in the mid-game will likely be exposed to danger. Hence, I don't think the game is too drawish.
Sam Trenholme wrote on 2006-03-13 UTC
I see two problems:
Incomplete rules.
Can a King swap with a pawn when its on its own first rank? If so, how does a pawn on the first rank move?
Too hard to attack the king in the midgame. This will make the game more drawish.
I think this is a good idea, however. I'd get rid of the king-and-pawn swap, however. Or make it so only one king-and-pawn swap is allowed in the game.
This will make the game more tactical and have more flare than standard FIDE chess.
Number of ratings: 1, Average rating: Excellent, Number of comments: 3
https://www.chessvariants.com/page/MSswapmate-chess
First Created: Sunday, March 12th, 2006
Last Modified: Sunday, March 12th, 2006
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Would you like us to remember your submitted details on this device next time you visit?
Emotive’s quest to map our nation’s mood
Emotive, a new computer software designed by British scientists at Loughborough University, aims to map the mood of the nation by analysing emotions of Twitter users.
It is claimed that the program can scan and analyse up to 2000 tweets per second and extract a particular emotion from each one. The eight basic emotions it claims to detect are: anger, fear, disgust, shame, surprise, happiness, sadness and confusion. Apparently Emotive can geographically assess the mass mood of the nation and could help the police to prevent potential criminal behaviour or threats to public safety.
This seems like good news after Twitter was criticised for apparently being a key player in assisting in organising riots that shook the nation in the summer of 2011. Riots were organised partly through collective tweeting on the website, and had this program been available then, those threats and clear warning signs could have been detected, possibly preventing such large groups meeting or moving riot police to key areas so they could act fast.
Although a computer program won’t be able to be specific or especially accurate, it could be a great tool when analysing a large amount of data, such as a general uproar amongst Twitter users or trending of certain topics that are bringing waves of emotions.
However, unlike a human being, the program can’t focus on individual tweets to correctly identify the user’s emotions, which may lead to confusion and possibly flawed results. For example, can it detect sarcasm? Jokes? Or fake Twitter accounts that post automated tweets? I think we can all agree that sarcasm, satire and strange fake accounts are what makes Twitter. That and the trolls, of course. Therefore genuine data may get mixed up with sarcastic Twitterers, proclaiming their utter delight at the rain outside, those excellent football results or that fantastic boyband song at number one.
With more than 500 million people using Twitter and 340 million tweets posted every day, there’s bound to be a flaw in such a huge undertaking. However, for now the researchers insist that only tweets in the UK will be analysed, although plans to go worldwide are in the works. So maybe it won’t be able to correctly identify happiness relating to popular culture, as sarcasm runs deep through Twitter’s veins, however regional or national upset that is projected through tweets may be able to be identified. In the long run, analysing the emotions largely shared on Twitter over news or politics, then working with local authorities to tackle issues head on, could make a real difference in ensuring that our tweeting nation is a happy one.
Published: 10th September 2013
Type: White Paper
Click here to download whitepaper
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NFL to interview Matthew, Peppers, Harrison in PEDs probe
By: Kevin Holden Twitter
Posted: Jun 25, 2016 12:19 AM CST
NEW YORK (AP) -- Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers and James Harrison will be interviewed next month by NFL officials in connection to a media report that linked them to the use of performance-enhancing drugs.
A letter from NFL executive Adolpho Birch that was obtained by The Associated Press says Green Bay linebackers Matthews and Peppers and Pittsburgh linebacker Harrison will be interviewed when training camps open. The Packers begin practicing on July 26, the Steelers on July 29.
The letter also mentions defensive lineman Mike Neal, a free agent who will be interviewed. It doesn't mention the now-retired Peyton Manning, who also was cited in Al-Jazeera's report in December.
The NFL first notified Matthews, Peppers, Harrison and Neal about its investigation into the report on Jan. 11. That investigation has proceeded, but Birch wrote that the players' union hasn't responded to "multiple requests" to schedule the interviews.
Lake Geneva's popular Ice Castles plans to open Friday, Jan. 22
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NIOSH All CDC
The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
Behind the Wheel at Work
Behind the Wheel at Work is a quarterly eNewsletter bringing you the latest news from the NIOSH Center for Motor Vehicle Safety.
Volume 5 Number 3 September 2020
Adapting Motor Vehicle Safety Practices During Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
What have we learned about the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on crashes? What do we not yet know? How can employers reduce the risk of exposure for workers who drive as part of their job? Let’s explore this topic as it relates to motor vehicle safety.
Update on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Response
While the NIOSH Center for Motor Vehicle Safety will continue to share valuable safety information in our quarterly Behind the Wheel at Work eNewsletter, you can stay up to date on the COVID-19 response in real time on CDC’s COVID-19 webpage or sign up for CDC’s COVID-19 newsletter.
email_03Sign Up: Behind the Wheel at Work
To receive the email newsletter, enter your email address:
Effects of COVID-19 on Crashes
How to Prevent the Spread
New NSC Resource
CMVS Strategic Plan
Speeding Safety Image
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of public health measures to slow disease spread have been implemented throughout the U.S. These measures have impacted many aspects of our lives, including road travel and safety. In our last issue, we mentioned that adopting journey management principles can protect the health of your workforce and reduce the risk of crashes and injuries as businesses reopen. This month, we’re looking at what we do and don’t know about the effects of COVID-19 on crashes in the general public as well as the impact on workers.
January 31: The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declared a public health emergency for the United States to aid the nation’s healthcare community in responding to COVID-19.
March 11: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic.
March 13: The President of the United States declared the COVID-19 pandemic a national emergency.
March 13: The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA)external icon issued a nationwide emergency (Emergency Declaration No. 2020-002)
In doing so, FMCSA addressed the need for immediate transportation of essential supplies, equipment and persons, and provided necessary relief from the FMCSA regulations for motor carriers and drivers engaged in the transport of essential supplies, equipment, and persons.
FMCSA granted emergency relief from Parts 390 through 399 of the FMCSA regulations for the fifty States and the District of Columbia.
Because public health conditions continued, emergency declarations were extended by FMCSA and expanded on: March 18, April 8, May 13, July 13, August 11, and September 11. They are currently set to expire on December 31, 2020.
March 19: The first statewide stay-at-home order went into effect, and 40 states followed. The number of motor vehicles on U.S. roads and number of miles driven were reduced, with more people staying at home.
April 24: States began reopening (ongoing).
Miles Driven and Crashes in the General Public
There have been several national and state reports highlighting reductions in miles driven and varying changes in the number and rate of crashes in the general public during the pandemic. Some findings include:
Even though miles driven by Americans from January-July 2020 decreased, estimatesexternal icon from the National Safety Council (NSC) show that driving became more dangerous. The NSC reports that during July 2020, the number of roadway deaths increased by 11% and the fatality rate per miles driven increased by 26% compared to July 2019. This means that those who were on the road had a higher risk of dying in a crash.
The NSC also reports that the estimated cost of these motor vehicle deaths, injuries, and property damage through May 2020 was $249.4 billion.
States have conducted preliminary motor vehicle data analysesexternal icon and have reported varying changes in motor vehicle travel patterns, crashes, and associated injuries.
In Virginiaexternal icon, fewer vehicles on the road during the COVID-19 crisis (mid-March to mid-May) led to a 45% decrease in all crashes compared to 2019, but the number of crash-related fatalities involving both speed and unrestrained travelers increased by 78%.
In Californiapdf iconexternal icon, during a period of time under the shelter-in-place order (March 21 to April 11), the number of overall crashes and fatal crashes were half those in the period prior to the order and half those during a similar period in 2019. However, there was a slight increase in average speeds (between 1 to 4 mph), primarily on urban highways.
Reports indicate that less-congested roads led to increases in risky driving behaviors.
Emptier streets may have encouraged some drivers to ignore traffic safety laws, including speed limits. The Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) reportedexternal icon that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a spike in speeding and reckless driving behaviors. Four states reported a surge in drivers with highway speeds over 100 miles per hour.
Increases in crash severity were observed compared to the same time period in 2019, such as in Massachusettsexternal icon.
Law enforcement and state reports from several states highlight the importance of addressing speedingexternal icon and seat belt use.
What We Don’t Know
The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated economic downturn on work-related motor vehicle safety remain to be seen. It is likely that some worker groups, such as essential workers, have been affected. Undoubtedly, we will find that there are impacts on driving behaviors and crashes at work. A few of the complex factors that may affect work-related road safety include:
Personal and work-related stress, anxiety, alcohol and substance use, and other mental health issues arising during the pandemic.
Work-related driving speeds, as compared to the general public. It is unknown if increases in speeding were primarily recreational, or if workers felt additional pressures at work that facilitated the need to speed.
The impacts of workers opting out of local public transit, crew transport, and carpools to limit COVID-19 exposures and using personal vehicles for commutes.
The impacts of delayed or suspended personal and commercial license renewals on work-related crashes.
The impacts on essential workers who continued to commute to and from work throughout the pandemic despite personal stressors, long work hours, and fatigue.
The impacts on essential workers who drive for a living (e.g., long-haul truck drivers) and faced closed facilities while on the road or encountered limited supplies at open facilities.
The Bottom Line: Road travel has been greatly impacted as a result of COVID-19. Instances of increased speeding and seat belt non-use are occurring in the general public, and the rate of fatal crashes in the U.S. has increased. Employers can:
Reinforce motor vehicle safety messages and the importance of complying with traffic safety laws;
Educate drivers on the risks associated with speeding and the critical importance of seat belt use;
Ensure drivers have access to information on dealing with stress and anxiety; and
Stay up to date on reopening of commercial license facilities and when the waivers for renewals expire.
While driving the posted speed limit on a dry road may be safe, the same speed on a wet or icy road or at night may be unsafe and too fast for the conditions.
CDC has issued guidance related to transportation and COVID-19. Below is a summary of some of the key reminders for employers to reduce the risk of exposure for workers who drive as part of their job.
Encourage workers to avoid carpooling to and from work, if possible.
If carpoolingpdf icon using crew vans, company shuttles, or other shared vehicle spaces is a necessity for workers, use the following practices:
Limit the number of people per vehicle as much as possible. This may mean using more vehicles.
Encourage employees to maintain social distancing as much as possible.
Before you leave and upon arrival at your destination, wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.
If sharing a van or car space, wear a mask.
Clean and disinfect commonly touched surfaces after each trip (e.g., door handles, handrails, seat belt buckles).
If a third party must have access to the interior of a vehicle (e.g., mechanics, inspectors), request that the third party clean and disinfect the truck before turning it back over to you.
Provide alcohol-based hand sanitizers containing at least 60% alcohol, alcohol wipes for disinfecting surfaces, tissues, and small trash cans for vehicles.
When using fuel pumps, parking meters, and pay stations, consider using alcohol wipes to disinfect surfaces or use hand sanitizer containing at least 60% alcohol after use. Wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds as soon as it is possible.
Encourage employees to cover coughs or sneezes with a tissue, throw the tissue away in a small trash bag in the vehicle, and use a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.
Understand that the current environment could elevate stress levels among drivers. Provide resources to help manage stress.
Avoid using the recirculated air option for the car’s ventilation during passenger transport; use the car’s vents to bring in fresh outside air and/or lower the vehicle windows.
Visit these CDC COVID-19 resources for more information:
Carpooling and Preventing the Spread of COVID-19pdf icon
Protect Yourself When Using Transportation
What Long-Haul Truck Drivers Need to Know about COVID-19
What Rideshare, Taxi, Limo, and other Passenger Drivers-for-Hire Need to Know about COVID-19
What Mail and Parcel Delivery Drivers Need to Know about COVID-19
Resources on Stress and Coping
The Bottom Line: You can take steps to prevent the spread of COVID-19 during vehicle transport.
As part of its SAFER: Safe Actions for Employee Returns initiative, the National Safety Council has a new resource to guide employers through the process of safely resuming traditional work and operations. Learn more about transportation considerationspdf iconexternal icon.
New CMVS Strategic Plan, 2020-2029
The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) Center for Motor Vehicle Safety’s (CMVS) strategic plan for 2020-2029 is now available. The plan identifies research needs for four priority industry sectors and describes how we envision those stakeholders will put research results into practice. Its purpose is to guide NIOSH-funded research to prevent work-related motor vehicle crashes – the leading cause of workplace deaths in the U.S. – and encourage collaboration between the CMVS and external partners.
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The Work-from-Home Benefits of Cloud Data Storage
By James Houseman | Data Security & Backup, Document Management, Microsoft Office
More employers are allowing staff to work remotely — a trend that’s continue for the foreseeable future. As businesses move to an increasingly remote workforce, they are using cloud data storage to ensure remote staff has access to critical information to keep productivity high.
How to Recover from the Past Year with an Efficiency Audit
By CDS Office Technologies | Cybersecurity, Data Security & Backup, Network Infrastructure & Security, Sustainability
Managers are always pushing their employees to do more with less. The best managers will continuously look for opportunities to streamline bloated processes and reduce operational overheads. Unfortunately, managers are just as likely to become too busy with everyday issues and may no longer have the bandwidth to carry out…
How to Secure Data with Frequent Backups
By CDS Office Technologies | Business Continuity & Disaster Recovery (BCDR), Cybersecurity, Data Security & Backup, Network Infrastructure & Security
Nobody likes preparing for catastrophe—however, not preparing for it will lead to disaster when an emergency arises. When exploring strategies for how to secure important files and data, make sure that frequent backups are a part of the plan. Backups may mean the difference between minimal downtime and mitigated damages,…
What Should a Network Assessment Include?
By CDS Office Technologies | Cybersecurity, Data Security & Backup, Managed Services, Network Infrastructure & Security
A network assessment is often the first step to introducing managed IT services to a company. However, it’s also a great idea to conduct periodically for any organization, especially those planning to make changes or upgrade their IT resources. Many companies, especially SMBs operating with tight budgets, may not recognize…
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Electric Ferrari won't arrive before 2022
Derek Fung
Full EV ruled out until after current five-year plan
Ferrari has ruled out building an all-electric vehicle before the end of its current 2018-2022 business plan.
According to Automotive News, Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Ferrari, told the company's recent annual general meeting a fully electric model was not currently relevant to the company.
This seemingly contradicts his statement to Bloomberg at the beginning of the year, where he said "if there is an electric supercar to be built, then Ferrari will be the first".
The decision also comes despite Ferrari's 2017 annual report warning "pure electric cars may become the prevalent technology for performance sports cars thereby displacing hybrid models".
The outspoken chief, who is also the head of Fiat Chrysler, admitted to attendees the company does need to add hybrid cars to its range, but it was still debating which model would receive a petrol-electric hybrid drivetrain.
At the time of writing, Ferrari's only production hybrid models have been limited-edition vehicles, such as the LaFerrari. The company's first high volume hybrid is expected to go on sale from 2019.
While this latest news may cheer some purists, Marchionne confirmed last year Ferrari has plans to add a crossover to its range, although unlike Porsche and Lamborghini this model will reportedly be produced in limited numbers.
MORE: Ferrari news, reviews, comparisons and video
2019 Ferrari Portofino review: First drive
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Government Scholarships in Azerbaijan 2021
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Home/Resources/Career Paths You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management
ResourcesScholarships
Career Paths You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management
A bachelor in management is one of the more versatile business degrees out there, meaning management graduates are highly sought-after for their broad knowledge and awareness of business and business-related areas, including economics, finance, marketing, and people management. Consequently, there are a lot of career paths you can pursue with a bachelor in management, like management consultancy, business advisory and business development, and project management. But if the world of business and finance isn’t your first choice, here are some other highly rewarding career paths you may want to pursue with a management degree.
A chief marketing officer’s main duties include the planning, development, implementation, and management of a coordinated marketing and advertising strategy campaign in order to promote a product/service and drive profits.
This is an exciting role involving numerous managerial, analytical, and creative tasks, such as: conducting in-depth market research to stay ahead of emerging trends and industry developments, meeting targets, producing reports, as well as managing budgets, teams, and resources.
Chief marketing officers have to constantly broaden their knowledge and understanding of the latest trends and technologies to better serve consumers’ expectations. For this reason, having good commercial awareness sounds business knowledge, and communication skills, as well as being adaptable and resilient, is vital to succeeding in this role.
Being an Events Director is another Career Paths You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management. Event directors are responsible for the successful execution and management of a variety of business and social events – from weddings to charity fundraisers and corporate conferences.
This is a hands-on role that demands the ability to think fast, be adaptable and well-organized, manage a dynamic team, budget finances, a strong commercial awareness, and above all else – offer outstanding customer service skills.
The skills and knowledge acquired in a bachelor in management are especially helpful in gaining a head start in this field.
Culture Shock for International Students
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How to Get a Student Visa for Canada
Luxury Travel Manager – Career Paths You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management
This is an exclusively client-facing role where you can combine your passion for travel with managerial knowledge and expertise.
As a private luxury travel manager, it’s your job to offer the highest level of customer care at all times to your clients when it comes to taking responsibility for designing and curating bespoke holidays around the world. Exceptional attention to detail, up-to-date knowledge of market trends, and an excellent network are imperative should you want to pursue a career as a luxury travel manager.
Public Relations Officer
If you are resilient and adaptable, then a role in public relations could be ideal.
Public relations officers carry out a wide range of tasks and duties, including the planning, creation, and implantation of public relations strategies and press releases, organizing press conferences and events, as well as fostering positive relations between the community, key spokespeople, and the media.
Corporate Social Responsibility Manager
Another rewarding Career Path You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management that is gaining increasing international attention is in the corporate social responsibility area.
As companies become more aware of their ethical, sustainable, and environmental practices, corporate social responsibility managers oversee the creation and implementation of a company’s social responsibility strategy and objectives – for example, looking at ways to reduce the company’s carbon footprint emission.
If the company’s corporate social responsibility initiative is met, this can boost customer loyalty, brand trust, as well as increase the long-term profits of the company.
Start your own business and be your own boss
Have you got an entrepreneurial instinct? being an entrepreneur is another Career Paths You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management. While being your own boss and starting up your own business venture comes with its challenges, many who go on to become successful entrepreneurs enjoy the independence that comes with working for yourself and hiring a team who are just as passionate, keen, and dedicated to your business as you are.
It’s a great starting point for those who want to get a good idea of what it’s like to work and manage a team while bringing visions and concepts to life.
Do you like this article on Career Paths You Can Pursue With A Bachelor in Management? Find more articles on Student Resources here
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Andrew Scheer to launch inquiry into SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal
A new Conservative government would take measures to safeguard against abuse of power
In Justin Trudeau’s riding of Papineau, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer announced today that a new Conservative government would launch a judicial inquiry into the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal.
A new Conservative government will also introduce the No More Cover-Ups Act to allow the RCMP to access information protected by cabinet confidence by making an application to the Supreme Court of Canada. This will prevent corrupt politicians from hiding behind cabinet confidence to escape police investigation.
As confirmed by hours of Parliamentary testimony, taped conversations, and an Ethics Commissioner’s guilty verdict, Trudeau politically interfered in SNC-Lavalin’s criminal prosecution by trying to “circumvent, undermine, and ultimately attempt to discredit” former Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould.
However, to this day, Trudeau refuses to waive cabinet confidence, keeping important details of the scandal secret and preventing several key witnesses, including Ms. Wilson-Raybould, from disclosing evidence.
“Justin Trudeau has covered up his role in the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal every step of the way,” Scheer said. “He blocked three Parliamentary investigations, refused to co-operate with the Ethics Commissioner, and is currently blocking the RCMP from obtaining key evidence. As Prime Minister, I will call a judicial inquiry so Canadians can finally get the answers they deserve.”
“No longer will a corrupt Prime Minister be able to be the gatekeeper of his own misconduct,” said Scheer. “These measures will safeguard our democracy against the whims of sleazy and unscrupulous politicians. Justin Trudeau has so far avoided consequence for the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal, but the Canadian people will deliver their verdict on October 21.”
In 2017, Justin Trudeau became the first Prime Minister in Canadian history to be found guilty of breaking ethics laws for accepting a vacation from a lobbyist. In August, he was found guilty again for his role in the SNC-Lavalin corruption scandal.
Trudeau abused the power of his office to shut down two separate Ethics Committee investigations and a Justice Committee investigation.
In his final report, Trudeau II, Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion noted, “During this examination, nine witnesses informed our Office that they had information they believed to be relevant, but that could not be disclosed because, according to them, this information would reveal a confidence of the Queen’s Privy Council and would fall outside the scope of Order in Council 2019-0105.”
Right before the election, Canadians learned the RCMP is being prevented from investigating possible obstruction of justice because Trudeau refuses to waive cabinet confidence.
Boost the RESP matching by 50 per cent, helping parents get more for their kids’ education.
Background Documents:
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Volume 1: Chapter I
Volume 1: Chapter II
Volume 1: Chapters III-IV
Volume 1: Chapter V
Volume 1: Chapter VI
Volume 1: Chapter VII
Volume 1: Chapter VIII
Volume 1: Chapters IX-X
Volume 1: Chapters XI-XII
Volume 1: Chapter XIII
Volume 1: Chapter XIV
Volume 1: Chapter XV
Volume 1: Chapter XVI
Volume 1: Chapters XVII-XVIII
Volume 2: Chapters I-II
Volume 2: Chapters VI-VII
Volume 2: Chapters XIII-XIV
Volume 3: Chapter III
Volume 3: Chapter IV
Volume 3: Chapter IX
Volume 3: Chapter X
Volume 3: Chapter XI
Volume 3: Chapter XII
Volume 3: Chapters XIV-XV
Volume 3: Chapter XVII
Volume 3: Chapter XVIII
Volume 3: Chapter XIX
Jane Austen Biography
Plot of Emma
Setting in Emma
Point of View in Emma
Characters in Emma
Theme of Emma
Style of Emma
As has often been done, one can — and with truth — say that Emma, like Jane Austen's other novels, deals with the subject of young ladies finding proper husbands. On the surface this is what the story line of Emma is about, but the total subject matter of the book concerns much more than that. Within the chosen limits of upper-middle-class society and within the even more limited strict feminine point of view for telling the story (all the events are presented from within a domestic or social context, though not, as has
been claimed, merely from within a drawing room), Miss Austen is fervently preoccupied with the way people behave. And this is the broad area of the moralist. If the moralist chooses, as Miss Austen does, to focus on the common rather than the exceptional behavior of people, he is more likely to write comedy than tragedy. If he is furthermore, a serious moralist, perceptive and understanding enough to keep a part, but only a part, of himself disengaged from the contradictory entanglements of his subject matter, his comedy has a good chance of being realized in terms of ironic satire.
The purpose of satire is to point a humorous finger at what is wrong, thereby indicating by implication what is right. Irony, as a method of achieving satire, makes use of contradictory, and sometimes ambiguous, opposites. Throughout Emma a deeper theme than that of woman finding the appropriate man for herself pervades the action: Emma Woodhouse's story is a progression in self-deception. Having since childhood been obliged to manage her father, she still likes to manage things and, particularly, people. In fact, among her associates she feels confident to manage everyone except Mr. Knightley. In her long-term attempt to preside over the marriage-ability of Harriet Smith, the natural daughter of hitherto unknown persons, Emma pits herself against something in which she fundamentally believes, the eighteenth century belief in class status whereby one simply should stay in the class into which he is born. (She is also incidentally pitting herself against the process of natural selection of a mate.) She deludes herself that Harriet's parents may have been of importance and hence tries to marry her off to people above her station in life. With absolutely no foundation in fact, this delusion stems solely from Emma's willful imagination.
Mr. George Knightley, on the other hand, in his sedate and kindly way accepts the social status quo and governs himself accordingly, even cautioning Emma about what she is doing. On this major thematic point, then, Emma represents imagination and Mr. Knightley stands for realistic reasoning (some would say merely realistic acceptance), two human characteristics that are so often in opposition that a contrasting pairing of them leads to irony. The story, of course, belongs primarily to Emma, for her willfulness most readily lends itself to satire and it is the feminine point of view that Jane Austen knows best. Still, for contrast, Mr. Knightley is often enough on the scene to keep us reminded of the other side of the coin, and Mr. Woodhouse, Emma's father, is constantly before us as an extreme example of one who wants to keep things the way they are. Of the two men, it is Mr. Woodhouse, so fearful of the least change that he bemoans the very thought of marriage and urges reason of health for not leaving his fireside even in good weather, who is the main object of satire on this side of the opposition.
What Miss Austen has done is to take two human traits and put them in different characters in order to make her contrast highly effective. They of course belong to human nature in general and represent those ironical mixed qualities of humanity and human relationships. Throughout the story a reader feels that somehow these extremes ideally should be able to meet on common ground and be resolved into something right. From her realistic point of departure as a storyteller, however, Miss Austen knows that relationships are tangential: hence the irony in the fact that the willfully imaginative Emma is the closest of blood relatives to the sedentary and senilely reasoning Mr. Woodhouse. There is doubtless significance far beyond the surface plotting of a love story in the fact that Miss Austen finally marries Emma and Mr. Knightley — that is, marries imagination and reason. Having realized her self-deception to some degree, Emma, with Mr. Knightley beside her, may now develop a proper balance within herself. Mr. Knightley, with Emma beside him, now seems to stand a good chance of never ending up on that dead-end street of static, senile reasoning at which Mr. Woodhouse has arrived. It is a common-ground marriage of reason and imagination, of head and heart, of common sense and goodness.
The ending of the story is, then, what we call a happy one. Or is it? In consideration of the bulk of the story about human foibles, Miss Austen gives us reason only for hope. She concludes the book with a final sentence about "the perfect happiness of the union." But this is said with at least a certain amount of tongue-in-cheek. Emma will not marry without her father's consent, and that comes only after the robbery of a nearby turkey house one night convinces Mr. Woodhouse that Mr. Knightley's living with them will be a needed protection. The close juxtaposition of this small causative event and the closing statement of the book connects the ridiculous with the more sublime and should at least make a reader wonder. Based on a moralistic realism as Miss Austen's satiric comedy is, it is not untypical of her in one twinkling to see both a robbed turkey house that will doubtless be replenished and a human household which, while it encloses a "perfect happiness of . . . union," also includes Mr. Woodhouse and the displacement of Mr. Knightley, who will now forego the ease and security of his own finer home, Donwell Abbey, in order to placate Emma and Mr. Woodhouse. Miss Austen's satire ends with an indication of what might be right; but she only points, for her moralistic realism will not let her be certain. She has seen too much of life for that. After all, who can say that Emma will never again try to manage things and people? In spite of robbers (and bridegrooms) this world is still full of turkeys, and Miss Austen knows that.
A brief word remains to be said about the ambiguity of opposites as Miss Austen sees them, and perhaps the best example is Emma's willful imagination, which stands in contrast to the reason of someone like Mr. Knightley. The ambiguity lies in a further contrast which embodies a contradiction. A lively imagination, in its purity, is an admirable and interesting quality. Perhaps willfulness, too, has its good points. But imagination can be too unfounded upon reality, and willfulness is perhaps too often misdirected because of its tendency to become presumptuous if not arrogant. Thus, on any one side of Miss Austen's oppositions there is ambiguity in that that side contains both good and bad inextricably fused. For this reason we can like and even admire Emma for the lively energy of her imagination, for her readiness to make amends, her benevolence, her affirmative sense of direction, while we are also critical of what she is doing.
Similarly we may feel that Mr. Knightley's reasoning does not make allowance for an adequate degree of imagination. Miss Bates' interminable talkativeness, which so comically places the petty and the significant on the same level, never includes a merciful consideration for the listener in spite of the fact that she is one of the kindest and best intentioned people who ever lived on or off a page. In Miss Austen's world (and who can prove that her world is not ours?) no good quality seems to be without some negative alloy. For this reason her satire not only probes the contradictory nature of opposite human qualities (contradictory because they are of one world and one humanity), but also considers the ambiguous mixture of good and bad in any one of these opposites.
Just as she never presents an actual emotional love scene (the one exception is found in Emma when Mr. Knightley declares the passion of his love to Emma) because her interest is in discovering the effects of emotion, she seems never to question why contradictions and ambiguities exist because she is basically a realist rather than a theorist. Rather than write of man and his relation to God or politics or abstract ideas, she wrote of human relationships. This may be why, in a letter to her nephew, she once referred to her fiction as "the little bit (two Inches wide) of Ivory on which I work with so fine a Brush, as produces little effect after much labour." Such a statement may, of course, be merely tongue-in-cheek modesty; but it is indicative of the fact that she deliberately limited her writing efforts not only to the provincial society which she knew and to the feminine point of view that was naturally hers but also to the mundane level of human behavior. Nonetheless, most readers of Emma find there the rich opacity, the delicacy, and the true polish of fine ivory, but few would agree that it is only two inches wide.
Previous Book Summary
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Previews • Jul 22, 2016
Low-Residency MFA Show at Sullivan Galleries
Earlier this month, the School of the Art Institute's inaugural Low-Residency MFA show opened at Sullivan Galleries. The exhibition, which is on display until July 30, features the work of more than thirty students, many of whom work internationally. The group has convened at SAIC for the past three summers and engaged in an intensive series of workshops, colloquia and studio visits.
The program also brings an impressive roster of visiting artists, including Andrea Fraser, Yvonne Rainer and Glenn Ligon, who present public lectures and meet regularly with students. Many of the visiting artists have returned several times to the program offering a chance for students to continue to engage with them as their work progresses.
Poetry is integral to the program as a whole, and Gregg Bordowitz, the director, starts each lecture with a poem fit for the occasion. For the thesis exhibition, he shared Robert Duncan's poem "Often I Am Permitted to Return to a Meadow," which he saw a cornerstone for his students.
Often I Am Permitted to Return to a Meadow
as if it were a scene made-up by the mind,
that is not mine, but is a made place,
that is mine, it is so near to the heart,
an eternal pasture folded in all thought
so that there is a hall therein
that is a made place, created by light
wherefrom the shadows that are forms fall.
Wherefrom fall all architectures I am
I say are likenesses of the First Beloved
whose flowers are flames lit to the Lady.
She it is Queen Under The Hill
whose hosts are a disturbance of words within words
that is a field folded.
It is only a dream of the grass blowing
east against the source of the sun
in an hour before the sun’s going down
whose secret we see in a children’s game
of ring a round of roses told.
as if it were a given property of the mind
that certain bounds hold against chaos,
that is a place of first permission,
everlasting omen of what is.
Duncan, who taught at Black Mountain College in the 1950s, permits a "made place" in one's mind, a place that holds knowledge within its folds. An apt meditation for students in art school attempting to carve out a space and a state-of-mind to explore and push their boundaries.
The Low-Residency MFA Thesis Exhibition is on display at Sullivan Galleries, July 15-30, 2016.
Featuring work by Fatma Al-Remaihi, Emilio Albertini, Lynn Basa, Peter Beck, Kelli Black, Verónica Casado Hernández, Jennifer Chadwick, Pía Cruzalegui, Stephen Flemister, Julian Gatto, Malika Jackson, Rufino Jimenez, Mohamad Kanaan, Kelly Long, Amy Malcolm, Janice Marin, Ana Morales, Eleanor Neal, Catherine Pach, Jake Platt, Waseem Rahman, Gabriel Rivera, Guadalupe Rosales, Sandrine Schaefer, Kate Schaffer, Nyugen Smith, Renee Valenti, Heath Valentine, Kate Watson-Wallace, Jacqueline Weaver, Caroline Wright, Julie Zappone, Carly Zufelt
Top image: Eleanor Neal, Untitled #1 (Material as Memory), Untitled #2 (Beyond the Darkness), Untitled #3 (Interwire at a Distance), Untitled #4 (Memory), 2016
Previews • May 31
Rapid Pulse: Celebrating Five Years of Performance Art
Tony Fitzpatrick and Barbara Rossi: Dual Artistic Forces on View at DePaul Art Museum
Dzine at the Chicago Cultural Center
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Children in Crossfire
Giving children the chance to choose
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Welcome to the Children in Crossfire shop
Children in Crossfire x Paragon Health Face Mask Collaboration
Purchase face masks here. All proceeds from the sales of these face masks will support our work in Tanzania and Ethiopia
Discover our range of products – whether you are taking part in our Summer Raffle, purchasing wedding favours for your upcoming nuptials or treating your loved ones to one of our Ethical Gift Cards for that special occasion – it is all here!
Christmas gifts – From the 21st of December we can no longer fulfil postal orders. Orders can be placed for local deliveries to Bt47 and Bt48 from the 21st – 23rd to ensure delivery in time for Christmas.
We want to say thank you for your support for the work we do and helping us change the lives of young children in Tanzania and Ethiopia
You can order from our range below or by calling Aishling on 028 71278949.
This gift will buy books and stationery for two children.
Five year-old Nadia goes to Songambele Primary School in Tanzania’s Dodoma region. She and all her classmates have recently started Children in Crossfire’s pre-school programme. We provide the books and stationery essential for early learning.
The message inside this card reads:
The gift will provide hand washing facilities for five children.
2020 has reminded us all how important basic hygiene is. Our goal is to build hand washing facilities in 700 schools over the next three years. This will keep tens of thousands of children like Nadia, pictured, safe from the spread of disease.
The gift will help provide nutritious food at school for one child for a year.
A well fed child is a happy child. This scene, at Songambele Primary School in Tanzania’s Dodoma region, shows children getting the best start in education – and having fun as every child should.
This gift will pay for enough sand to build a new toilet block for a school of around 1,000 children.
Every child pictured here deserves basic hand washing, sanitation and hygiene facilities. Children in Crossfire builds toilet facilities for schools because we want all children to stay free of disease.
This gift will provide cleaning equipment for three schools – keeping up to 3,000 children safe from disease.
2020 has reminded us all how important basic hygiene is. Every child should be protected from the spread of disease, and our goal is to ensure tens of thousands of Tanzanian children get the hand washing, sanitation and hygiene facilities every child deserves.
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We are a registered charity in Northern Ireland (NIC101412) and The Republic of Ireland (CHY 20045517). Children in Crossfire is now also a registered ‘Not For Profit’ in the USA and is recognised as tax exempt under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code (EIN 46-2267122).
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Agency Partners Program
White Label Services
Breadcrumb: Choice OMG > Canadian Web Design Agency > Features > Get More Stuff
Our core values are trust, effect, and client success. Our mission is to be the slingshot. We go deeper into all the little components of your website development project to make it useful, superior, and worthy of a world-class brand. We go deeper to produce an effect.
The Domain Name – The often-ignored critical component
Domain Names, have you ever had issues with them? Make sure you take a moment to understand what this critical component is and why we offer so much value to your business.
We don’t just register a domain name for you, we fully manage it.
Your domain name registration can be quite turn-key and this is normally what you get with other web design companies. You end up with a mess of DNS records that pollute your domain name with insecure settings and pollute email inboxes from all kinds of spam. Most people don’t even know how central these domain name records are to verifying the legitimacy of your business online.
Without the right tools and understanding, it’s likely getting overlooked.
Think about the main name servers on the internet as being the central reference that all the web browsers, email servers, and internet service providers have agreed to use. Where you register your domain is where the original records are kept and through a series of citations and linking, these records propagate around the globe. It used to take 24 to 48 hours for a domain name change to take hold, but these days global replication happens in minutes.
A domain name points to a bunch of records like this.
Typically, when you hire a web design company, they won’t have a lot of experience with domain names and they will use any $10/year registrar and merely get your website working. They may use Cloudflare or another intermediary which is an improvement over a basic default, but they probably don’t take the time to comb through the details as we do.
First, we use the right tools for the job. We’re not completely automated, but we’re also not manual either. We use robots to make the tasks easy, but they are only the tools and we put intelligence behind them.
We use the right tooling for the right job. The result is a more robust, clean, and secure online presence. And you thought you just wanted a typical web design, eh?
We manage a big ass fleet of nameservers, including our own PowerDNS cluster (aptly named Freyja in pursuit of records) and Amazon’s Route 53. This affords us redundancy and the flexibility we need to pivot to new security technologies as soon as they are unveiled.
You don’t just get a domain name, you get:
DNSSEC ensures that no one can manipulate a nameserver in the middle to change these records’ values. This prevents them from pretending to be you and potentially verify themselves to your email server, for example. Interested in learning about Domain Name System Security Extensions (DNSSEC)?
DKIM adds a layer of encryption to your email signatures to ensure that as your email is sent from one mail server to another, it is not tampered with, and people know the emails come from you. Learn more about DomainKeys Identified Mail (DKIM).
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More on vision
February 27, 2006 by Chris Gribble
Warren Bennis said this after his study of organisations,
“In every case where they had reached epiphanies, there was a leader who was able to enrol people in an exciting, insanely significant vision. Someone who was capable of reeling in the advocates and supporters to work with him or her. They all believed that they could make a dent in the universe.”(1997)
The signs of an effective organisational vision in your learning context will be evident in your followers. The leadership will need to be evaluating whether its members are reaching their potential and whether they being equipped to fulfil their role. Secondly the question must be asked at all levels are people learning? It will be the leadership vision and effective management of the vision that will enable your organisation to achieve new goals.
Warren Bennis (1997) also states what leaders must create is the social architecture that encourages people to work together successfully. The difficulty facing leadership is to harness egos to unleash the potential that is available. For an organisation the social structure must extent beyond superficial social niceties and be channelled into the practical aspects of fulfilling its vision. The social architecture will be constructed through its reorganisation as a “learning organisation” in which each of its participants becomes a contributing learner.
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Kiki's Delivery Service Journal
Photographs by Studio Ghibli
Kiki's Delivery Service Journal is a gorgeous notebook complete with beautiful concept art from Studio Ghibli's film Kiki's Delivery Service. Let creative sparks fly with this journal featuring full-color artwork on th...
Kiki's Delivery Service Journal is a gorgeous notebook complete with beautiful concept art from Studio Ghibli's film Kiki's Delivery Service.
Let creative sparks fly with this journal featuring full-color artwork on the front and back covers.
This charming stationery also features spot illustrations from the Studio's beloved film sprinkled throughout.
· Has four spreads of concept art
· A must for fans of Kiki and cute witches everywhere
· Flexi-bound with a ribbon marker
Kiki's Delivery Service is a delightful film about a young witch and her journey of self-discovery—now fans can show their love on the go with this sweet journal.
· Perfect for Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli fans of all ages, collectors, animation enthusiasts, and fans of Japanese art, stationery, and pop culture
· A wonderful gift for art and design enthusiasts, as well as those who like witches and cats
· Great for those who loved Kiki's Delivery Service by Eiko Kadono and Hayao Miyazaki and The Art of Kiki's Delivery Service: A Film by Hayao Miyazaki by Hayao Miyazaki
Kiki's Delivery Service © 1989 Eiko Kadono - Studio Ghibli
Format: Journal
Size: 5 x 7 V
Kiki's Delivery Service: Jiji Plush Journal
My Neighbor Totoro Journal
My Neighbor Totoro Pop-Up Notecards
Studio Ghibli: 100 Collectible Postcards
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jbeall@enquirer.com
It is 100 days from Major League Baseball's Opening Day to this year's All-Star Game -- and it just so happens that there have been exactly 100 players who have represented the Reds at the Midsummer Classic. The Enquirer is counting down the days beginning April 5 to this year's game at Great American Ball Park on July 14 by profiling each of the previous Reds All-Stars.
All-Star Game appearances : 4 ('53-56)
ASG stats : 7-for-14, HR, four RBI
Reds' career : 11 seasons - .302/.357/.512, 251 HR, 886 RBI, 745 R
Memorable Reds moments
: Led the NL with 49 homers and 141 RBI in 1954. Famous for cutting sleeves off his jersey to fit his muscular frame. Hitting coach for Big Red Machine. His No. 18 uniform is retired by Reds, and there's a "Big Klu" statue on Crosley Terrace outside GABP.
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Home > Members > Representative Gene Taylor
Representative Gene Taylor (1953 - )In Congress 1989 - 2011
Image, Congressional Pictorial Directory, 109th.
Read biography
Mississippi, District 4 108th-111th (2003-2011)
Mississippi, District 5 101st-107th (1989-2003)
More on This Member
See This Member's Remarks in the Congressional Record
Legislation Sponsored or Cosponsored by Gene Taylor
110 (2007-2008) 107 (2001-2002) 104 (1995-1996) Cosponsored Legislation Subject — Policy Area : Public Lands and Natural Resources
Sort by Sort by: Date of Introduction - Newest to OldestDate of Introduction - Oldest to NewestLatest Action - Newest to OldestLatest Action - Oldest to NewestNumber - AscendingNumber - DescendingTitleLaw Number - AscendingLaw Number - Descending
1. H.R.4457 — 110th Congress (2007-2008) To establish the Mississippi Delta National Heritage Area and the Mississippi Hills National Heritage Area, and for other purposes. Sponsor: Rep. Thompson, Bennie G. [D-MS-2] (Introduced 12/12/2007) Cosponsors: (4) Committees: House - Natural Resources Latest Action: House - 12/14/2007 Referred to the Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests and Public Lands. (All Actions) Tracker:
2. H.R.1975 — 110th Congress (2007-2008) Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act Sponsor: Rep. Maloney, Carolyn B. [D-NY-14] (Introduced 04/20/2007) Cosponsors: (139) Committees: House - Natural Resources Latest Action: House - 10/18/2007 Subcommittee Hearings Held. (All Actions) Tracker:
3. H.R.17 — 110th Congress (2007-2008) Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Reauthorization Act of 2007 Sponsor: Rep. DeFazio, Peter A. [D-OR-4] (Introduced 01/04/2007) Cosponsors: (141) Committees: House - Agriculture; Natural Resources Latest Action: 02/12/2007 Sponsor introductory remarks on measure. (CR H1463, H1469) (All Actions) Tracker:
4. H.R.3307 — 107th Congress (2001-2002) Vicksburg National Military Park Boundary Modification Act Sponsor: Rep. Thompson, Bennie G. [D-MS-2] (Introduced 11/15/2001) Cosponsors: (4) Committees: House - Resources Latest Action: House - 06/17/2002 Placed on the Union Calendar, Calendar No. 304. (All Actions) Notes: For further action, see S. 1175, which became Public Law 107-238 on 10/11/2002. Tracker:
Array ( [actionDate] => 2002-06-17 [displayText] => Reported by the Committee on Resources. H. Rept. 107-508. [externalActionCode] => 5000 [description] => Introduced [chamberOfAction] => House )
5. H.R.701 — 107th Congress (2001-2002) Conservation and Reinvestment Act Sponsor: Rep. Young, Don [R-AK-At Large] (Introduced 02/14/2001) Cosponsors: (245) Committees: House - Resources; Agriculture; Budget Latest Action: House - 10/29/2002 Referred to the Subcommittee on Conservation, Credit, Rural Development and Research. (All Actions) Tracker:
Array ( [actionDate] => 2002-10-16 [displayText] => Reported (Amended) by the Committee on 107-758, Part I. [externalActionCode] => 5000 [description] => Introduced [chamberOfAction] => House )
6. H.Res.25 — 104th Congress (1995-1996) Requesting that the Secretary of the Interior withdraw proposed regulations concerning rights-of-way granted under section 2477 of the Revised Statues. Sponsor: Rep. Orton, Bill [D-UT-3] (Introduced 01/04/1995) Cosponsors: (26) Committees: House - Resources Latest Action: House - 01/17/1995 Executive Comment Requested from Interior. (All Actions) Tracker:
Cosponsored Legislation Remove
Public Lands and Natural Resources Remove
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Non-Technical Forums
Rants, Raves, and Everything Else
Page 464 of 476 First ... 364414454455456457458459460461462463464465466467468469470471472473474 ... Last
Thread: Latest on the Corona Virus
6 Days Ago #4631
SalesServiceGuy
Service Manager 2,500+ Posts
Re: Latest on the Corona Virus
GOP Reps Refused to Wear Masks During Capitol Lockdown
GOP Reps Refused to Wear Masks During Capitol Lockdown - YouTube
Congressman who declined to wear a mask in a safe room during the lockdown for their protection and all else in the room on Capitol Hill.
Marjorie Greene R-GA
Mark Mullin R-OK
Andy Biggs R-AZ
Mo Brooks R-AL
Michael Cloud R-TX
Matt Gaetz R-FL
Paul Gossar R-AZ
Doug LaMalfa R-CA
Scott-Perry R-PA
Three Congressman have since contracted COVID-19 including 85 year old Bonnie Watson D-NJ recovering from cancer.
As of Jan 12 2021, 378,000+ Americans have died are being infected with COVID-19.
Last edited by SalesServiceGuy; 6 Days Ago at 04:43 AM.
BillyCarpenter
Originally Posted by copier addict
The funny thing about masks is they have to be worn to get any protection. It's not dependent upon the colour of the state.
It sounds like what you're suggesting is that the burden to wear a mask and social distance falls on the shoulders of the individual and not the liberal governors....or Trump?
U.S. blacks 3 times more likely than whites to get COVID-19
Black Americans are infected with COVID-19 at nearly three times the rate of white Americans, according to a new document from the National Urban League. The report, based on data from Johns Hopkins University, also shows black Americans are twice as likely to die from the virus.
According to the "State of Black America," the infection rate for blacks is 62 per 10,000, compared with 23 per 10,000 for whites. Latinos see even more infections: 73 per 10,000.
During the early months of the pandemic, the report asserts that blacks were more likely to have preexisting conditions that predispose them to COVID-19 infection, less likely to have health insurance, and more likely to work in jobs that do not accommodate remote work.
Both black and Latino Americans are also more likely to live in multigenerational housing, which places older, at-risk adults in close contact with younger people who may not know they have the virus.
The report’s findings were echoed in new data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, which shows that in many hot spots throughout the country this summer, Hispanics and Latinos were disproportionately infected with the novel coronavirus.
The analysis looked at county-level data for states experiencing a surge of virus activity during Jun 5 through 18. "Disparities in cases were identified among underrepresented racial/ethnic groups in 76 (96.2%) analyzed counties," the authors said. "Disparities among Hispanic populations were identified in approximately three quarters of hotspot counties (59 of 79, 74.7%)."
Community transmission this summer was noted most heavily in Arizona, Texas, and Florida — states with large Hispanic populations.
As many as 200,000 deaths by Labor Day
In its latest summary of modeling forecasts, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts the United States will see 180,000 to 200,000 total COVID-19 deaths by Sep 5.
Currently, the United States has 167,948 deaths and 5,289,232 cases of COVID-19.
"State- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in Colorado and may decrease in Arizona, the Northern Mariana Islands, Vermont, and Wyoming," the CDC said.
As the death toll grows, so does the number of Americans who say they know someone who has had the virus. Now half of the country's population says they know someone who has contracted the virus, up from 41% last month, according to a survey from the Societal Experts Action Network. The percentage was consistent across all regions in the country.
The poll also showed that most Americans, 73%, would support a national mask mandate. Thirty-four states now require masks in indoor public spaces, but President Donald Trump has said he is not going to issue a national mandate.
Yesterday, former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, and his running mate, Kamala Harris, said they would support a 3-month national mask mandate. In their first appearance together earlier this week, Biden and Harris both donned black masks before making remarks to reporters.
The White House coronavirus task force, in contrast to Trump, is encouraging a mask mandate in Georgia, where soaring numbers hint at uncontrolled community spread. In addition to a mask mandate, the task force is recommending shuttering all indoor dining and limiting social gatherings to fewer than 10 people, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
No copays for COVID-19 vaccines
Late yesterday, Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff for policy at the US Department of Health and Human Services, told reporters that the federal government will make sure no Americans have to pay copays for the COVID-19 vaccine once one becomes available.
"What we’re hoping is that every American will not only get a free vaccine distributed to many different outlets, but also will not have to pay for the administration of that vaccine,” Mango said on a call with reporters, according to the Wall Street Journal.
In other vaccine news, Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said scientists at his institute are working to create a strain of coronavirus that could be used in human challenge trials. In an interview with CNN, Fauci called this a "Plan D" and said the work was still in preliminary stages. Human challenge trials are controversial, as there is no known cure for COVID-19.
Originally Posted by BillyCarpenter
.... it is not a burden to wear a mask. At most, a minor inconvenience and a show of respect to those around you. All citizens including all politicians should wear a mask regardless of ideology.
Public health policy is not a political statement.
Originally Posted by SalesServiceGuy
You like to argue the strangest things -"burden". I would say that "burden" is in the eye of the beholder.
Let's focus on the main point of my post? Should we blame liberal governors for their folks not wearing a mask?
... do not right leaning Governors and politicians deserve blame for their citizens not wearing masks?
You can't answer a question with a question. Try to answer.
copier addict
Aging Tech 2,500+ Posts
Desboro
You gathered that from me stating that masks only work when they are worn?
Sure. Who are we to blame? The people who don't wear a mask or the liberal governors?
Well, since there is free will any refusal to wear a mask when directed is that person's decision. If they become infected and /or infect someone else it is on them
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Shipping & Receiving Clerk - N2 Shift
Company: Keurig Dr Pepper
Job Overview The Distribution Center Team Associate II Shipping Clerk is accountable for picking, packing and loading orders as required in a timely manner. Shift and Schedule: This position will support our Williston, VT and Essex Junction, VT facilities. This is a full time position working 12hr shifts on our N2 shift (6:00pm - 6:15am Friday, Saturday, & Sunday, every other Thursday). Flexibility to work overtime, weekends, and holidays is required as scheduled. Compensation: Paid on a Weekly Basis * $18.77/hr plus shift differential Benefits: KDP offers a very competitive benefits package that includes medical, dental, vision, 401k, Beverage Benefit, & so much more! Benefits are available to new hires DAY 1! Responsabilities Tasks also include stocking and using a pallet jack as required by Keurig Dr Pepper and customer standards. What you will do: Complies with regulations and safety procedures and continually monitors environment and equipment to ensure a safe workplace; is knowledgeable of Federal, State, local and GMC safety policies and procedures; Process orders in a timely and efficient manner in different areas of the distribution network; Will operate Powered Industrial Trucks (PIT) to transport raw materials and finished goods; Performs PIT battery charging procedures including watering and exchanging batteries; Keeps work areas clean and in accordance with 6s; Receives inbound raw materials and makes updates to SAP system; Will label materials and places goods at designated locations; Loads and unloads finished goods and raw materials; Reviews billing material for accuracy of all customer orders; Inspects trailers for safe use and keeps trailers clean; completes inspections forms; Build and load pallets for bulk truck shipment orders; Operate pallet wrapper as required; Perform other duties as requested by management. Requirements What you must have: High School degree or equivalent plus 2-3 years of experience in a distribution center environment; Experience in inventory and cycle counts; Standard reading/ math/computer skills Ability to lift 75 pounds frequently with mechanical assistance Ability to lift 30 pounds on a regular basis and 50 pounds occasionally Ability to constantly lift, bend, stretch and stand during entire shift Ability to push/pull up to 1.500 pounds using supplied equipment Ability to frequently kneel, squat, bend, and stoop, twist, and reach overhead with repetitive motions Company Overview Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is a leading coffee and beverage company in North America with dual headquarters in Burlington, MA and Plano, TX, with annual revenue in excess of $11 billion. KDP holds leadership positions in soft drinks, specialty coffee and tea, water, juice and juice drinks and mixers, and markets the #1 single serve coffee brewing system in the U.S. The Company maintains an unrivaled distribution system that enables its portfolio of more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands to be available nearly everywhere people shop and consume beverages. With a wide range of hot and cold beverages that meet virtually any consumer need, KDP key brands include Keurig--, Dr Pepper--, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters--, Canada Dry--, Snapple--, Bai--, Mott's-- and The Original Donut Shop--. The Company employs more than 25,000 employees and operates more than 120 offices, manufacturing plants, warehouses and distribution centers across North America. Benefits built for you: Our people are the heart of our business, which is why we offer robust benefits to support your health and wellness as well as your personal and financial well-being. We also provide employee programs designed to enhance your professional growth and development while ensuring you feel valued, inspired and appreciated at work. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is an equal opportunity employer and affirmatively seeks diversity in its workforce. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. recruits qualified applicants and advances in employment its employees without regard to race, color, religion, gender, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, age, disability, genetic information, ethnic or national origin, marital status, veteran status, or any other status protected by law. EOE Minorities/Females/Protected Veterans/Disabled Candidates must be able to pass a background check and drug test, as applicable for the role What you must have: High School degree or equivalent plus 2-3 years of experience in a distribution center environment; Experience in inventory and cycle counts; Standard reading/ math/computer skills Ability to lift 75 pounds frequently with mechanical assistance Ability to lift 30 pounds on a regular basis and 50 pounds occasionally Ability to constantly lift, bend, stretch and stand during entire shift Ability to push/pull up to 1.500 pounds using supplied equipment Ability to frequently kneel, squat, bend, and stoop, twist, and reach overhead with repetitive motions
Keywords: Keurig Dr Pepper, Council Bluffs , Shipping & Receiving Clerk - N2 Shift, Other , Council Bluffs, Iowa
Strip and Test Machine Machine Operator
Description: Parker Hannifin is now hiring Strip and Test Machine Operators. This is a full-time career you can retire from We offer outstanding benefits and pay:--- Pay rate of 13.59/hr--- Paid holidays--- Paid (more...)
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Location: Red Oak
Client Support Rep Lvl II
Description: What does a great Client Support Rep Level II do If you are the kind of person who has positive relationship and interpersonal skills, enjoys working with clients and troubleshooting issues this could (more...)
Company: Fiserv
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Myanmar: Stability and policy continuity expected after San Suu Kyi’s latest victory in the elections
Aung San Suu Kyi’s ruling NLD (“National League for Democracy”) party won a landslide victory at the parliamentary elections held on 8 November. The NLD thus repeated the success of the historic 2015 polls that followed the long military rule. Nearly 2 million people could not vote due to ethnic insurgencies and to the Rohingya community being denied voting rights. The main opposition party, the USDP, which is aligned with the army, is contesting the result on account of alleged fraud.
These elections are a personal success for NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains very popular at home despite a mixed political and economic record, while international criticisms are persisting about the Rohingya humanitarian crisis. This is also another step in the country’s democratic transition. Still, the constitutional minority of 25% parliamentary seats reserved for the army continues to weaken the democratic system and strain relations with the government. This probably explains the NLD’s impressive outcome at the polls, first among the dominant ethnic group the Bamar, but also among ethnic minorities whose rebel groups have seen their fight against government forces gradually escalate. Hence, amending the army’s power of veto will remain an elusive goal for the government in the coming years. Despite its strong majority in parliament, the NLD is expected to continue to move its reform agenda (institutions, banking sector, business framework…) forward at a slow pace, not least because of the army’s persisting vested interests. In the medium to long term, ethnic conflicts will remain a major political risk clouding Myanmar’s outlook and stability. While restoring peace to the ethnic areas was a major goal for Aung San Suu Kyi in 2015, ethnic conflicts have intensified against the army over recent years. They could escalate further in the future and hit government infrastructure projects, including those related to the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. In addition, the management of the Rohingya refugees – in theory 700,000 people to be repatriated from Bangladesh – will remain an embarrassment for the government as renewed US and EU sanctions are not ruled out.
The covid-19 shock is another obstacle clouding the short-term outlook as it has hit the economy through halted tourism, weaker commodity prices and exports for several months. However, after a 6.5% average in 2015-2019 under the first NLD government, GDP growth is expected to end the year in positive territory (around 2%), which highlights the economic resilience, diversification and a broadly contained virus spread. Macroeconomic fundamentals have deteriorated, particularly the current account deficit and public finances, but to a lesser extent than for most regional peers. Yet, faced with increased liquidity pressures in the context of the crisis, Myanmar has applied to the DSSI (Debt Service Suspension Initiative) and will thus keep its (low) debt service to official creditors on hold until mid-2021. As of next year, the recovery in GDP growth, exports and FDI will largely depend on the global evolution of the pandemic. In this context, Credendo is keeping its political risk ratings unchanged.
Analyst: Raphaël Cecchi – r.cecchi@credendo.com
Short-term political risk, June 2018
In the framework of its regular review of short-term (ST) political risk classifications, Credendo has upgraded eight countries (Ecuador, Honduras, ...
COUNTRIES : Barbade Chypre (Turque) (Nord) Equateur Guyana Honduras Kazakhstan Mongolie Myanmar Nigéria Swaziland Ouzbékistan
Myanmar: Rohingya crisis might harm domestic stability and government outlook
Event A severe humanitarian crisis encountered by the Rohingya (mostly Muslim) minority has fast erupted in Myanmar. It began at the end of August ...
Modification des catégories de primes pour les opérations à moyen et long termes: Asie, Afrique australe et de l’Est
Dans le cadre de l’Arrangement OCDE, Credendo – Export Credit Agency a abaissé ses catégories de primes pour le risque politique lié aux ...
COUNTRIES : Myanmar Hong-Kong Lesotho
Risk Insight
Les dividendes de la démocratie renforcent la dynamique économique positive
Depuis 2011, date à laquelle la junte militaire a décidé d’ouvrir le pays à la fois politiquement et économiquement, les progrès accomplis ont été nombreux et très impressionnants.
Myanmar: Upgrade from 5 to 4
Myanmar’s success story goes on. After unexpected political and economic opening by the military junta a few years ago, the democratic transition ...
COUNTRIES : Myanmar
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Cricket Stats and Facts
The Best of Tests: When Devon Malcolm told South Africans 'you guys are history'
by Cricket World Sunday 24 May 2020
Player of the Match - Devon Malcolm
Test cricket mirrors life. The ebbs and flows of the format have given birth to some of the most breath-taking cricketing epics. A Cricket World Series, The Best of Tests, highlights the finest of these spectacles.
South Africa 332 & 175
England 304 & 205/2
Result - England won by 8 wickets
Two years after South Africa's re-admission into cricket, they were on the tour of England in 1994. The two teams had not faced each other in a Test match in 29 years.
South Africa won the first Test at Lord's by 365 runs, which was followed by a draw at Headingley. The teams were back in London and England had to win the third match in order to draw the series.
South Africa scored 332 in the first innings on the back of 93 from Brian McMillan and 58 from David Richardson. England, in reply, were bowled out for 304 with Graham Thorpe scoring with 79.
Fanie de Villiers hit Devon Malcolm on the head with a bouncer in England's first innings. Malcolm, who was a proper rabbit with bat in hand, was not amused with the chuckles by the South African fielders.
It is apocryphal that Malcolm told them that he was going to kill them, though most deny Malcolm's claim.
On a pacy wicket, Malcolm found his rhythm in South Africa's 2nd innings. The Kirsten brothers were dismissed fending at steaming balls. Hansie Cronje was softened up with a few short deliveries followed by a yorker which blew away his stumps.
Apart from some resistance from Daryll Cullinan, the rest of the South African innings fell like a pack of cards. They were bowled out for just 175 with Devon Malcolm accounting for all but one of their wickets.
Malcolm's figures of 9/57 remain among the top 10 in Test history. A run-a-ball 81 from Graeme Hick then saw England chase down the 204-run target at a terrific run rate of 5.77.
The Best of Tests: Sri Lanka v Pakistan: Jayawardene-Samaraweera's 437-run stand and a Younis triple
The Best of Tests: Sri Lanka create history with first multi-Test series win in England
The Best of Tests: An England victory off the last ball in Durban's fading light
The Best of Tests: A 33-week journey across the ocean to Australia and an intoxicated England spinner
The Best of Tests: Dean Jones 'seeing' double as India-Australia tie back in 1986
England v South Africa, Test Cricket
Aus v Ind 1st Test Day 2: India edge ahead on 15-wicket day
South Africa v England Postpone ODI Series
1st South Africa v England ODI postponed for Sunday
"We're not short of guys to bat at the top of the order" Eoin Morgan on the England ODI side
Eoin Morgan talks on the importance of Cricket right now
Live Cricket Streaming – Australia v India 1st ODI, South Africa v England 1st T20I & More
Jason Roy speaks on his current form ahead of South Africa v England
Cricket Betting Tips and Fantasy Cricket Match Predictions: South Africa vs England 2020 - 1st T20I
Virtual Cricket Competition
Cricket World Dice Cricket County Championship: Cricket Match Predictions Competition
Exciting News... we are bringing a competitive edge to all you cricket loving fans by running a Free Prize Competition alongside the Cricket World Dice Cricket County Championship.
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Manuscript chart of the track of H.M.S. Jupiter for the year 1807
By CAMBERLEDGE, J.A., 1807
To Captain H.E.R. Baker of H.M.S. Jupiter and Commodore of the E.I. Fleet. This Chart of a new Passage tho’ which he conducted the Fleet in August 1807 is a Proof of his Anxiety for its quick arrival in India and is a mark of his esteem of his most obedt. and faithful, humble Servt. J.A. Camberledge.
Africa Eastern Africa
Author: CAMBERLEDGE, J.A.
Physical description: Manuscript chart, with the tracks of HC Surrey, and HMS Jupiters convoy of 11 East Indiamen, naval ledger to verso, minor worming.
Dimensions: 450 by 590mm. (17.75 by 23.25 inches).
The chart depicts the track of H.M.S. Jupiter passing Madagascar in the year 1807. As the chart states:
‘The track of His Majesty’s Ship Jupiter Commodore Baker in 1807 having under his Convoy eleven Indiamen who being prevented going to the north by constant Northerly Winds on getting the SE Trade carried the Fleet thro’ this passage without meeting any Island or Shaol’
As is stated above she was acting as escort for eleven East Indiamen. The continuing war with France had left many of the convoys to India, the East Indies, and China vulnerable to attack by French ships. As a reaction to this threat the British began to sail in convoy and, as here, with a military escort.
H.M.S. Jupiter was a 50 gun fourth rate ship-of-the-line launched in 1778. She was wrecked on the 10th December 1808 — just three months after her return from the East — when she struck a sunken rock in Vigo Bay.
The chart also bears the track of the East Indiaman Surrey dated 1805.
Chart of the Atlantic by the van Keulen dynasty of chartmakers
KEULEN, Johannes II van and KEULEN, Gerard van, 1728.
The Daily Mail map of the Boer Republics
PHILIP, George, 1899.
Bacon’s rare map of the Transvaal
BACON, G[eorge], W[ashington], 1899.
Mapping the early Scramble for Africa
CAWSTON, George, 1890.
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Zombie Army Trilogy Co-Op Review
Review 3/12/2015 at 10:51 PM by Christopher Metz
Cheaper than Call of Duty Zombies.
It's 1942. The Third Reich are about to lose World War II as the Allied forces close in on their main headquarters. In desperation, Hitler initiates his plan to use Nazi occult research and create an army of zombies in retaliation. Will you have enough ammunition to take on a seemingly unstoppable force of the undead?
As long as you bring enough friends along for the fight, then it's a breeze! Rebellion’s Zombie Army Trilogy, a bundle that includes all three Nazi Zombie Army expansions featured throughout the Sniper Elite series, has been polished and repackaged into a pretty decent standalone co-op title.
The Sniper Elite series is all about being a pro marksman; the aim, basically, is to get as many headshots with the weapons at hand as possible. Since this game is all about facing (mostly) slow-moving zombies, skeletons, and other undead Nazi soldiers, it feels absolutely fantastic when you pull off headshots that make their heads explode.
After making a shot - and calculating various factors such as the shot's trajectory, the distance between the player and the target, and how many enemies are lined up in a row - the game enters a slowed-down state where players view the shot's trail and get an x-ray glimpse of the bullet traveling through an enemy’s skull. While your main objectives vary, your side goal during each mission is to rack up the largest combo possible to achieve a high score. I like to think of the game as an arcade rail shooter where you’re able to traverse the maps at your leisure.
Zombie Army Trilogy has two different modes: Campaign and Horde. Campaign mode presents a storyline where you and up to three other players progress through five separate missions containing three episodes each. Horde mode is, essentially, a survival mode that challenges players to survive waves of zombies as they grow increasingly more difficult.
Zombie Army Trilogy’s added drop-in/drop-out features help immensely when playing with friends. Since Campaign episodes can take quite a bit of time to get through, it's nice that players can join in or leave on the fly without having to return back to the matchmaking lobby.
Though sniping is an ideal solution when dealing with the undead, players are also able to carry subweapons like shotguns or pistols to take on close-range zombies, or to use as a last resort if rifle ammo is dwindling. However, the game places a high emphasis on headshot kills in order to rack up your combo multiplier. The other guns are usually there for pure survivability and ammo management, as they make it much more difficult to get headshot kills.
Players also have a selection of explosive items like trip mines and dynamite sticks, which can be used to fortify defensive locations with traps and take out large numbers of zombies in an instant. These items typically run out quickly, though, so I'd recommend using them (except for the throwing grenades) only when you’re facing large waves of zombies. These encounters typically happen at the various checkpoint areas - called Safehouses - scattered throughout the map and at the very end of an Episode.
When it comes to your primary rifle weapon, I found little difference in how each one performs compared to another, and couldn't decide which ones were overall superior. One rifle might be slightly faster to fire, and one might have a little less recoil, but they’re all largely the same. As a result, picking one rifle you like and keeping it with you throughout the campaign leaves little room for variation and can get stale.
co-op review
sniper elite nazi zombie army
Xbox Game Sale
Zombie Army Trilogy Has An Official Nintendo Switch Release Date
Nazi Zombie Army Trilogy Offers Seven Reasons to Once Again Take Down the Undead Reich
Zombie Army Trilogy Shambles Onto Consoles and PC March 6th
Zombie Army Trilogy Coming To Nintendo Switch
Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army Series is Being Remastered
Amazon.ca - $129.78
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(Nintendo Switch)
Amazon.ca - Click to See Price
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BNP Paribas Opens Blockchain Lab, BNY Mellon and Barclays Explore the Technology
Sep 8 2016 · 06:21 UTC | Updated Aug 31 2017 · 20:26
by Tatsiana Yablonskaya · 3 min read
Photo: F. de La Mure/Maedi via France Diplomatie/Flickr
Financial institutions all over the world partner to explore and adapt the blockchain technology to financial needs.
BNP Paribas, the French multinational bank and financial services company, has launched a FinTech laboratory at its New York headquarters. The laboratory will work to apply blockchain solutions to employee problems. The FinTech lab takes 5,000 square foot on the 30th floor of BNP’s offices.
Six task forces are organized to work on AI and big data, in addition to blockchain. Bruno d-Illiers, BNP’s chief operating officer of commercial investment banking, emphasized that the laboratory is open to all the employees, not just management staff. “We don’t believe that innovation is just for the senior executives. We want to engage each and every staff member,” he said.
The laboratory team aims to provide correct information about the nature of such technology as blockchain. “Many people understand blockchain, but they don’t understand the impact it will have on our business model”, d-Illier stated.
BNP Paribas’s laboratory has already launched its first project where five groups were developing blockchain proofs-of-concept for two days. The jury will select the winner today.
Blockchain trials have also been conducted by BNY Mellon and Barclays. BNY Mellon has unveiled a test system that works alongside its existing transaction records system and uses blockchain to create a backup record of its brokerage transactions. The solution is called ‘BDS 360’ and serves as part of the broader blockchain program of BNY. The bank collaborates with other members of R3 consortium developing and adopting the blockchain.
BNY Mellon understands that financial institutions may not be so keen to switch wholesale to a new kind of infrastructure, so it offers to test blockchain solutions in the background. Suresh Kumar, BNY CIO, called the blockchain “a huge opportunity” and described their initiative as a way for the bank to test “the strengths and weaknesses” of the technology.
Meanwhile, Barclays and Israeli start-up Wave are the first organizations to execute a global trade transaction using blockchain technology. Barclays has recently undertaken a number of blockchain and distributed ledger initiatives. Last year, it signed a proof of concept with Safello to explore how blockchain technologies can be used in the financial services sector.
Barclays also strives to adopt blockchain for social payments in partnership with digital currency firm Circle.
“One of the biggest headaches in global trade currently is the vast movement of paper required to facilitate transactions, with multiple organisations in the chain. That is why we’ve been very keen to partner with Wave in using blockchain technology to save time and money for our clients, and potentially transform trade finance for businesses around the world”, Baihas Baghdadi, global head of trade & working capital at Barclays, said.
next Blockchain News, News
Author Tatsiana Yablonskaya
Taking strong interest in blockchain, cryptocurrencies, and IoT, Tatsiana Yablonskaya got deep understanding of the emerging techs believing in their potential to drive the future.
By Ibukun Ogundare December 11th, 2020
Business News, FinTech News, Investors News, News PayPal-Backed Tink Raises €85M in Extended Investment Round, Company Valued at €680M
Tink’s valuation has jumped more than 60% in 2020. At the beginning of the year, the Swedish fintech startup’s valuation was €415 million.
By Steve Muchoki December 4th, 2020
Business News, Deals News, FinTech News, News Stripe Partners with Leading Banks to Offer New Financial Services
Stripe will now offer debit cards, bank accounts and other products to online merchants and vendors who use its payment processing platform.
By Bhushan Akolkar December 1st, 2020
Business News, Indices, Market News, News, Stocks Global Stock Markets Outperformed US in November 2020
The European stocks recovered significantly on the positive news about the COVID-19 vaccine as drugmakers gear up for mass production and distribution and await FDA approval. The Asia markets are looking positive as China’s growth picks up.
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IOVLabs Subsidiary RSK Buys Spanish Social Media Platform Taringa
Sep 27 2019 · 20:25 UTC | Updated Jan 23 2020 · 10:38
by Janis Rijnieks · 3 min read
Photo: Taringa! / LinkedIn
A subsidiary of IOVLabs, RSK, has purchased a Spanish social media platform Taringa and got access to its nearly 30 million users.
Recently it has come to light that RSK, an IOVLabs subsidiary, that calls itself the “first open-source smart contract platform secured by the Bitcoin network”, has purchased Taringa. It is important to highlight that it is the most popular Spanish-speaking social network with 30 million users. According to the recently revealed data, this platform is used by 28% of internet users. This figure is better than the results of Snapchat, Skype, and LinkedIn.
RSK also has a native token RIF which was released in November 2018 and has a market capitalization of $46 million. Its main incentive is to offer this feature to countries that are in the midst of an economic crisis, like Argentina, Venezuela and other similar Spanish-speaking countries where there is no need to provide an explanation of what and why about Bitcoin and altcoins. IOVLabs CEO Diego Gutierrez Zaldivar noted:
“If you go to the first world and you start talking about bitcoin and decentralized platforms, you need to explain why. In Latin America, you don’t need to explain why. People understand why instantly, so they jump right into the how and who. It’s a different reaction. That’s exactly why we chose this social network.”
The ability to access Taringa’s user base will give the company an astonishing amount of data and information. With this information it will test and distribute a completely new decentralized infrastructure and dApps that will be powered by the RSK platform and RIF token.
IOVLabs together with Taringa plans to develop innovative consumer products, features and services for their communities. Taringa says that they have over 1,000 active online communities at the current moment.
“This acquisition puts us at the forefront of adoption in distributed ledger technologies. Having access to such a large community will also be invaluable for gathering quick feedback from users of all the RIF-powered tools and protocols we are launching in the near future. We see Taringa as the first step towards massive adoption of both RSK and RIF platforms, and a great step forward for our long term vision of empowering individuals through decentralization,” said Diego Gutierrez Zaldivar.
RSK claims that it is the most secure smart contract platform in the world “as it relies on Bitcoin’s hash power”. The company is already developing its first feature for Taringa’s platform and they expect it to deploy in the second quarter of 2020.
Taringa is very similar to Facebook. Its users can share, post, in other words – create content as well as find and establish contacts with people with common interests. Now, with the help of RSK, RIF, and IOVLabs, these users will be able to monetize these contributions.
“We are very excited about joining forces with the creators of RIF and RSK, as we truly believe that our users and communities should benefit from the contributions they make to our social network,” commented the CEO of Taringa Matías Botbol.
next Altcoin News, Bitcoin News, Blockchain News, Cryptocurrency news, News
Author Janis Rijnieks
Janis is a cryptocurrency enthusiast and a bitcoin adherent. He has a background in video production, but for the past couple of years, he is a full-time crypto researcher and writer. He has a good understanding of multiple cryptocurrencies and loves to cover daily news. He considers himself a semi-bitcoin maximalist but always is open to any kind of new ideas that could be put on the blockchain. In his free time, he likes skateboarding and cars.
Business News, News, Social Media, Stocks, Technology News Snap Stock Up 3% in Pre-market, Analyst Predict Continuous Bull Run
Analysts remain bullish on SNAP stock and believe that the company will continue to pull in gains.
By Mercy Tukiya Mutanya January 13th, 2021
Business News, FinTech News, Investors News, Market News, News Checkout.com Raises $450M in Series C Funding
The Checkout.com Series C funding was led by Tiger Global Management.
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author: COLOMBO TELEGRAPH
Sri Lanka Responds During Discussion On UN High Commissioner’s Report
Sri Lanka’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva and Leader of the Sri Lanka delegation Ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha addressing 27th Session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva yesterday (8 September 2014), welcoming the new High Commissioner Zeid Bin Ra’ad Al-Hussein on his appointment, said, “his wide experience in diplomacy, in-depth knowledge of the UN system and understanding and respect for social and cultural characteristics are useful assets that will guide the work of the OHCHR, consistent with the IB package and based on the fundamental principles of universality, impartiality, objectivity, non‑selectivity, constructive international dialogue and cooperation”. He observed that “despite Sri Lanka’s non-recognition of the politically motivated resolution on Sri Lanka during HRC 25, Sri Lanka would continue to engage with the regular mechanisms of the Council, and looked forward to the opportunity to engage during Sri Lanka’s fifth periodic report under the ICCPR next month -October 2014”.
Ambassador Aryasinha
Ambassador Aryasinha also reiterated “Sri Lanka’s categorical rejection of the resolution and its call for a ‘comprehensive investigation’ by the OHCHR”, and said “Sri Lanka will be addressing this issue comprehensively when the High Commissioner’s ‘oral update’ is taken up for discussion later in this Session”. The statement noted that “the Resolution and its mandate for a ‘comprehensive investigation’ challenge the sovereignty and independence of a member state of the United Nations, are based on profoundly flawed premises inimical to the interests of the people of Sri Lanka and violate a fundamental principle of international law which requires that national remedies have to be exhausted before resorting to international mechanisms. As Sri Lanka and other countries have pointed out in the Council on several previous occasions, operative paragraphs 2 and 10 of the Resolution are mutually contradictory, in calling on both the Government and the OHCHR to conduct parallel investigations. What is most regrettable is that the intrusive external investigative authority vested on the OHCHR not only exceeds its mandate, but disregards completely the domestic processes in place in the country. It disrespects the inherent social, cultural and ethnic susceptibilities of the people of the country, jeopardizes the delicate process of reconciliation that is already underway, and militates against stability and peace in the country”.
Notwithstanding the rejection of the Resolution, Sri Lanka’s comprehensive statement to the HRC detailed the manner in which Sri Lanka continues its own domestic process of reconciliation, using as a basis, the National Plan of Action to implement the recommendations of the LLRC (NPoA). Ambassador Aryasinha drew to the Council’s attention, that “in the period since HRC 26 concluded in June 2014:
a ‘Special Bureau for Reconciliation’ is being set up; the mandate of the COI on Missing Persons has been enhanced to inquire into additional matters, and through the appointment of a five-member International Advisory Council that includes internationally recognised lawyers; the Bill on “Assistance to and protection of Victims of Crime and Witnesses” is due to be presented in Parliament tomorrow; the Joint Needs Assessment on resettled IDPs supported by
UN-OCHA is nearing completion and the final report is expected by October 2014; the PSC continues to endeavour to fulfil its mandate, despite the persistent refusal of the TNA to participate”.
Ambassador Aryasinha said Sri Lanka “was deeply appreciative of all long standing friends in the HRC and in the wider international community who have continuously and consistently kept their faith in our ability to achieve national reconciliation on our own. Sri Lanka had also been encouraged to seek to share experiences through regional and international partners, and in this regard were currently engaged in dialogue bilaterally with several countries at high level”. “However, even as Sri Lanka perseveres on the sensitive path of reconciliation, it is unfortunate that some, refuse to acknowledge this and persist in heaping negative attention”.
The Ambassador said, “Sri Lanka rejects assertions regarding threats levelled against the human rights community in Sri Lanka. Steps will be taken at all times to investigate into complaints. In this context, it must be noted that the full gamut of constitutional guarantees including effective remedies are available to individuals or groups who wish to canvass the rights of persons”. “Sri Lanka also regrets attempts being made to portray the country as intolerant of religious minorities. For centuries, people in Sri Lanka practising different faiths and practices have coexisted peacefully and in harmony. However, like in all countries in the world composed of multi-cultural and multi-religious communities, unfortunate isolated incidents can occur. Wherever such incidents of attacks involving religious places of worship have taken place or any individual has been targeted on the basis of religion or faith, the legal process has been set in motion in respect of reported incidents and investigations have been launched. The Government expressly condemns all acts of violence against any religious or ethnic communities”.
Concluding, Ambassador Aryasinha reiterated that the Government of Sri Lanka is firm in its commitment to continue its ongoing domestic processes of accountability, justice, reconciliation and nation building and will continue to work with its international partners. He also reaffirmed Sri Lanka’s continued support to the High Commissioner; to the OHCHR; and to the work of HRC.
Read the full statement here
Shashindra Brand Water Bottles For Uva Voters
Full Text Of The ITAK 15 Resolutions Including Merger Of The North And East Provinces
Thiru / September 9, 2014
Lies, blatant lies, and more damning lies!
The above speech is all verbosity devoid of any concrete and positive action towards reconciliation.
The above speech is truly full of bluffing but the ground reality is exactly opposite in everything he mentioned.
The whole regime is an embodiment of lies and deceit.
Liars, blatant liars, and more damned liars!
eusense / September 9, 2014
thru,
Can you list and explain the lies, blatant lies and damned lies contained in this speech?
If you don’t list I will have to call you a stupid liar.
Ajith / September 10, 2014
Stupid List Master.
Lapatiya / September 10, 2014
Nuisance,
“Can you list and explain the lies, blatant lies and damned lies contained in this speech”
Actually those are not lies. Those are real truth nothing but the truth. Some of the real truths are given below.
1. Sri Lanka continues its own domestic process of reconciliation, using as a basis, the National Plan of Action to implement the recommendations of the LLRC (NPoA).
Home Grown Madamulana kind of reconciliation.
2. PSC continues to endeavour to fulfil its mandate.
Joke of the century and what happened to the earlier PSC report?
3 Special Bureau for Reconciliation’ is being set up.
Headed by Oldest Policeman in active servise – DIG Anura Senanayaka.
4.the Bill on “Assistance to and protection of Victims of Crime and Witnesses” is due to be presented in Parliament tomorrow.
One guy already in the Hospital as he couldn’t stop laughing after seeing this part.
5. Sri Lanka rejects assertions regarding threats levelled against the human rights community in Sri Lanka.
Saddarmadveepa Chakrawarthi’s trade mark.
6. Steps will be taken at all times to investigate into complaints.
Like we investigate Lasantha Wickramatunga, Pradeep Eknaligoda and 21 other Journalists deaths and disappearances.
7. full gamut of constitutional guarantees including effective remedies are available to individuals or groups who wish to canvass the rights of persons.
We have already seen this when Right groups conducted workshops in Negambo and Colombo.
8. Wherever such incidents of attacks involving religious places of worship have taken place or any individual has been targeted on the basis of religion or faith, the legal process has been set in motion in respect of reported incidents and investigations have been launched.
Yes very true. We have seen this when Nanasara introduced Aba Sarana theory in Aluthgama and Darga Town.
9. The Government expressly condemns all acts of violence against any religious or ethnic communities”.
Our Police spokesperson, SSP Ajith Rohana, Peththappy and Army Spokesperson also repeating the same thing.
10. Government of Sri Lanka is firm in its commitment to continue its ongoing domestic processes of accountability, justice, reconciliation and nation building and will continue to work with its international partners.
Yes we are working very closely with China, Russia, Vietnam, Uganda, Swaziland, Libya, Burma and Countries that has Saddarmadveepa Chakrawarthi kind of Democracy.
Don’t forget to wear something while shopping for Maha Raja.
Eusense / September 10, 2014
Lap,
Are you always a moron, or just when I’m around?
Typical answer from 2.50 Rajapaksha kind Deshapremiya.
justice / September 9, 2014
Aryasinghe the former journalist now the SL mouthpiece in the UN has done his duty.
This was expected.
But the UN probe will grind on and, I hope that truth will prevail.
Only now the Witness Protection mechanism is being mentioned – but will it be a ‘stillbirth’ – a bill which cannot be implemented?
justice,
“still birth” of the UNHRC investigation?
Amarasiri / September 9, 2014
“Sri Lanka’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva and Leader of the Sri Lanka delegation Ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha addressing 27th Session of the Human Rights Council in Geneva yesterday (8 September 2014), welcoming the new High Commissioner Zeid Bin Ra’ad Al-Hussein on his appointment, said, “
Are you a liar too , like your boss G. L . Peiris, and the President?
Why should one believe you?
Why did you not Visa to UN investigators?
What do you have to hide?
Do you have no shame in lying?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNSC93mPs4I
Leon / September 9, 2014
Absolute poppy cock. What a bloody liar. None of what he said is true. He talks of “domestic process of reconciliation”.
Do you want the International community to believe what you are saying. Your Genocidal Govt has taken over lands in Jaffna and Trincomalee, lands that belonged to the poor innocent Tamils, colonizing them with Singhalese, leaving the evicted Tamils to live in camps. Does this sound like reconciliation you idiot?As for religious tolerance, the new High
Commissioner has commented on the attack of the Muslims in the Kalutara district, not to mention attacks on Mosques and Hindu temples in other places Does this sound like tolerance you moron?.
As for the non participation of the TNA, the TNA parliamentarians have indicated why they will not participate in talks with the genocidal Govt. I am sure the various embassies in SL are aware of this.
Please don’t fool the people and the international community. You SOB’s have lost all credibility.
If you have nothing to hide, allow the Investigators to go to SL and carry out their investigation.
leon,
One question for you. Reconciliation with whom? SL defense forces fought a terror war with the LTTE terrorist who suicide murdered over 100,000 innocent Sinhalese and Tamils over a period of 30 years. In 2009 the SLDF wiped out the terrorist. Innocent Tamil civilians had nothing to do with that terror outfit. Now, with whom do you want the gov. to reconcile with? Are you saying with the Tamil diaspora who funded the terror for over 30 years?
Leon / September 10, 2014
You better ask your Ambassador in Geneva. He is an authority on ” on fragile reconciliation process”
So, now you and the other separatists are not interested in reconciliation??
Ajith / September 9, 2014
Ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha is a representative of Buddhist Fundamentalist of Sinhala Sri Lanka. The characteristic of this group is simply lie, cheat and commit crimes against humanity. Who cares about his bullshit speech.
george jilmart / September 9, 2014
what a sad specimen of humanity talking gibberish and making statements that do not display an atom of intelligence. This Ariyasinghe keeps mouthing lies on behalf of his master who will soon be before the ICC for war crimes.
Saro / September 9, 2014
Ambassador Ravinatha Aryasinha listens too much to Gota R and G L. Peiries. He must go to north and east to see how even after 5 years of end of the conflict people whose loved ones were abducted by Gota’s white vans and military intelligence are threatened and intimidated and kept in fear. Many IDPs are still languishing in tin huts and sharing in over crowded houses of relatives and friends.
The houses and lands of many victims are still used by Gota’s military while they cannot live in their own homes and cultivate their own lands. On top of it viceroy Chandrasiri put obstacles after obstacles to make the elected NPC a dead horse.
Military intelligence is against any reconciliation and fear psychosis is no alternative to peace.
Piranha / September 10, 2014
Sri Lanka’s sovereignty
Sri Lanka’s independence
Intrusive external investigation
The same old accusations repeated at every HRC statement by the Regime’s rep
domestic process
national action plan
The same sham claims again repeated at every HRC meeting
“Special beaureau for reconciliation”
“Assistance to and protection of victims of crimes and witnesses”
These are new promises to fool the international community. The reality is totally different. How can this man guarantee protection to witnesses when the Rajapaksa regime has warned witnesses of being labelled traitors if they gave evidence. We all know what happened to those who gave evidence at the missing persons investigation conducted by the regime itself.
Aryasinghe is a fool to think that his speech is going to fool any one. Regardless of his speech the UNHRC investigation will continue and the verdict will be damning. I can’ wait for that.
Not very different to what Gobbels said in Nazi Germany.
Geneva / September 10, 2014
Believe it or not,
please go through all the latest statements by Sri Lanka in the UN Human Rights Council.
There is a change only in the date of the intervention and session (Number)
The rest all the same! Of course the paragraph is re-written.
This why none in the human rights council give any attention to the SL statement.
EastHamBoy / September 10, 2014
Before people get their knickers wet dreaming of Geneva, International Criminal Court, Regime change etc, read what happened last Friday:
The international criminal court case against the Kenyan president, Uhuru Kenyatta, collapsed after prosecutors admitted they lacked evidence, casting doubt on whether the decade-old court can hold the powerful to account.
In a court filing on Friday, the ICC’s chief prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, said Kenya had not handed over the bank and phone records the court was demanding, leaving it without a case before the scheduled October 7 start.
The collapse of the case is a severe blow for the court, the first permanent war crimes tribunal, which was set up in The Hague with the aim of ensuring that people accused of the most serious international crimes face justice.
“The accused person in this case is the head of a government that has so far failed fully to comply with its obligations to the court,” Bensouda said in a filing, asking judges to adjourn the case indefinitely.
She accused Mr Kenyatta’s government of failing to fulfil its obligations to the court to supply information she has requested.
She said the case should be delayed “until such time the government of Kenya executes the [prosecution’s] revised request in full.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/05/kenya-president-uhuru-kenyatta-icc-trial-collapses
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29083115
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Cash & Vouchers Food & Beverage Requires Registration
Win an Aperol Spritz-Inspired Home Party Pack for 10
Broadsheet
Prize Requires Registration
Win a G&Tour Pack
Antagonist Spirits
Win 1 of 4 Ancestry DNA Kits
Product Requires a Codeword
Win 1 of 2 Young Living Lustre Artisan Diffuser Sets
Win 1 of 5 $100 The Daily Edited Vouchers
Cash & Vouchers Requires a Codeword
Win Swyftx 12 Days of Christmas Giveaway 2020 & 1 BTC
Swyftx
Cash & Vouchers Prize Requires Registration Interactive
Win a Netgear Nighthawk 12-Stream Tri-Band Wi-Fi 6 Router
Centre Com
Product Electronics Requires Registration
Win a road trip for 4 in a Model 3!
Travel Words or Less Answer Requires Registration
Entry is open to New Zealand residents only.
To enter, individuals must, during the competition period, visit www.mindfood.com follow the prompts on the competition entry page, input the requested details including the answer in 50 words or less to the following question “What is your favourite drink to enjoy at Christmas and why?” and submit the fully completed entry form.
Competition commences on 06/11/2020 AEST. Entries close 10pm on 15/12/2020 AEST. The judging will take place at McHugh Media Australia Pty Ltd, 102/4-14 Buckingham Street Surry Hills NSW 2010 on 16/12/2020 by 12pm AEST. Winners will be notified by email. The Promoter’s decisions final and no correspondence will be entered into.
The Promoter has one RAWKANVAS Your Natural Kanvas gift set to give away, valued at $289. Total prize value is $289.
(1) Tell us below, in 25 words or less, what you'll choose to buy if you win.
(2) Follow both Three Birds Renovations and Early Settler on Instagram AND/OR Facebook (click on the names below to be taken directly to the profiles).
INSTAGRAM - @threebirdsrenovations + @earlysettlerfurniture
FACEBOOK - Three Birds Renovations + Early Settler
Entry is open to all residents of Australia over the age of 18 years old (eligible entrants)
Employees, immediate family members of employees, employees of any company associated with the Promotion are ineligible to enter
The Promotion commences on 08:00 11/12/2020 and entries close on 11:59 -- 04/01/2021 (promotion period).
To enter, Eligible Entrants must complete the required form via https://manofmany.com/lifestyle/win-a-limited-edition-22-flatrock-skateboard or directly via the form on Gleam
Entry requires entrant’s email address. By entering, eligible entrants agree to subscribe to Man of Many’s email newsletter and promotional emails.
All entries must be hand-typed. No entries will be accepted from computer programs or scripts. People suspected of using computer scripts to enter or refer people will be disqualified.
Man of Many and the promoted brand may use the details you have provided to market to you via email and other methods. Man of Many respects your privacy and your information and details will be held in accordance with the Man of Many Pty Ltd privacy policy. If you do not wish to be contacted by Man of Many, then please inform us by email or use the unsubscribe feature on the bottom of every marketing email.
Prizes and winning
The random prize draw will take place at 12:00 on 05/01/2021 at Man of Many, 10/2 Kings Lane, Darlinghurst, NSW 2010, Australia
The winner/s will be randomly selected by computer
The winner/s will receive a Cyberpunk Prize pack worth $270 each
No individual prize will exceed $1000
The overall prize value will not exceed $100,000
Total Prize pool value is AUD$1,350.
Prizes are not redeemable for cash.
Prize conditions
Winners will be notified by email within two 2 business days of the draw. The winners will have their details published within the Gleam Application on the following page: https://gleam.io/wIWwi/win-a-limited-edition-22-flatrock-skateboard on 05/01/2020.
Once the winner is notified by Man of Many they must respond with their name, phone number and delivery address within 7 days of being notified by Man of Many in order to claim prize.
In the event that a prize is unclaimed, or if a winner informs Man of Many they do not wish to accept a prize, a new prize draw will be conducted on 18/01/2021 at the same time and place as the original draw. If a winner is drawn they will be contacted by phone and in writing within two (2) business days and will have their name published within the Gleam Application on the following page: https://gleam.io/GiTiR/win-5-cyberpunk-prize-packs-worth-270-each on 05/12/2020.
Winner/s must be subscribed to Man of Many's mailing list at the time of the selection, otherwise, their entry will be deemed invalid.
If the promotion involves alcohol
The Promoter encourages consumers to enjoy alcohol responsibly. Please refer to the GL4001 ‘Liquor promotion guidelines’ and GL4003 ‘Intoxication guidelines’ at liquorandgaming.justice.nsw.gov.au.
Information on How to Enter and prizes form part of these Conditions of Entry.
The promotion period begins as per each contest entry page.
Entry is opened to Australian residents who have a valid email address and meet age requirements as defined on each contest entry page.
To enter Eligible entrants must complete the online entry form at Stevivor.com during the promotional period and register their name, age, contact number and e-mail address to be placed in the contest registry.
Contests will always be judged according to the skill-testing question presented.
Employees of Stevivor and associated companies and their immediate families and any agencies associated with this promotion are excluded from entry.
The draw will take place on the day designated on each contest entry page. Prize winner’s names will be published on the website and winners will be advised via email.
The Promoter may conduct such further draws at the same time and place as the original draw as is necessary, two weeks from the original draw, in order to distribute the prize if it remains unclaimed by that date subject to any relevant legislation. If such draw is required winner will be notified via e-mail and phone.
The Prize, is not transferable or exchangeable for cash. If a Prize, becomes or is unavailable, the Promoter, in its discretion and subject to state permit approval, reserves the right to substitute all or any part thereof with a product or prize to the equal value.
Should an entrant’s contact details change during the Promotion Period, it is the entrant’s responsibility to notify the Promoter. A request to access or modify any information provided in an entry should be directed to the Promoter in writing.
The details contained in your entry are protected by security safeguards as detailed in the Promoter’s Privacy Policy, which is also available on the website. The personal information collected as part of the entry is collected to enable identification of the winner and for future marketing and promotional purposes. Your personal information will only be disclosed to the Promoter and its related bodies corporate for these purposes.
If this Promotion is interfered with in any way or is not capable of being conducted as reasonably anticipated due to any reason beyond the reasonable control of the Promoter, including but not limited to technical difficulties, unauthorised intervention or fraud, the Promoter reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to the fullest extent permitted by law to disqualify any entrant; or subject to any written directions from a regulatory authority, to modify, suspend, terminate or cancel the Promotion, as appropriate.
Your information will be handled in accordance with Stevivor’s Privacy Policy located at visit www.stevivor.com/privacy. The Privacy Policy explains how you may access and seek correction of the information Stevivor holds about you. The Privacy Policy also explains how you may complain about the manner in which Stevivor has collected or handled your information and how Stevivor will investigate and respond to your complaint.
By entering your email address you agree to being contacted by Stevivor, regarding offers and announcements, via our Daily Digest. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link at the foot of any email communication – for more information on how Stevivor uses and protects your data, visit www.stevivor.com/privacy.
Information on how to enter and prizes form part of these Conditions of Entry. Entry into this promotion is deemed acceptance of these Conditions of Entry.
Homecamp in association with Will & Bear will give away
1 x Homecamp Tipi $945
1 x Homecamp Fenby Chair $339
1 x Homecamp Bucket Bag $139
2 x Will & Bear Straw Hats $300
2 x Will & Bear Wide Brim Wool Hats $300
2 x Will & Bear Cotton Caps $160
2 x Will & Bear Wool Beanies $100
To be eligible, entrants must enter their details at https://homecamp.com.au/summer-camping-giveaway/ or https://willandbear.com/blogs/news/summer-camping-giveaway
The promotion is open from 7pm, Thursday 10th December 2020 to, 7pm Sunday 20th December 2020. The entrants for the draw will consist of all valid entries within that period.
Entry is free and open to entrants in Australia, aged 18 years or older who submit a valid entry via https://homecamp.com.au/summer-camping-giveaway/ or https://willandbear.com/blogs/news/summer-camping-giveaway Employees and immediate families of the Promoter and partners, suppliers, providers and agencies associated with this promotion are ineligible to enter.
The Promoters, Homecamp and Will & Bear, reserve the right to request proof of residency at the stated address and identification for verification (to the Promoter’s satisfaction in its discretion) before issuing the prize. Incomplete or incomprehensible entries will be deemed invalid.
The winner will be chosen by a Homecamp representative and Will & Bear representative on 20th Dec
The winner will be notified by email following the draw on 20th Dec Their name will be published via our social networks. In the event that the prize notification email is returned as undeliverable, such prize will be forfeited and an alternate winner will be selected from all remaining (non-winning) eligible entries.
The Promoter may award the prize to the second chosen entry if the prize remains unclaimed within a 1 month period after the prize notification email is sent. In the event of any winner in the unclaimed prize judging, the winner will be notified by email or direct message.
The prize is not transferable and not redeemable for cash. Any vouchered funds not used will be forfeited.
First prize is valued at $2283.
The Promoter will not be liable for any loss or damage whatsoever which is suffered (including but not limited to indirect or consequential loss) or for any personal injury suffered or sustained in connection with the prize except for any liability, which cannot be excluded by law. The Promoter will not be responsible for any incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete information communicated in the course of or in connection with this promotion if the deficiency is occasioned by any cause outside the reasonable control of the Promoter including without limitation technical malfunctions or failures.
If for any reason this promotion is not capable of running as planned because of infection by computer virus, bugs, tampering, unauthorised intervention, technical failures or any other causes beyond the control of the Promoter which corrupt or affect the administration, security, fairness, integrity or proper conduct of this promotion, the Promoter reserves the right in its sole discretion to cancel, terminate, modify or suspend the promotion subject to any written directions under applicable legislation. The Promoter also reserves the right in its sole discretion to disqualify any individual who the Promoter has reason to believe has breached any of these conditions, or engaged in any unlawful or other improper misconduct calculated to jeopardise the fair and proper conduct of the promotion. The Promoter’s legal rights to recover damages or other compensation from such an offender are reserved.
The Promoter is not responsible for any problems or technical malfunction of any telephone network or lines, computer on-line systems, servers, or providers, computer equipment, software, technical problems or traffic congestion on the Internet or at any website, or any combination thereof, including any injury or damage to participants or any other person’s computer related to or resulting from participation in or downloading any materials in this promotion.
Your email data will never be sold or shared with another company. You will only receive emails from Homecamp and Will & Bear. You can unsubscribe at any time.
The laws of Australia apply to this promotion to the exclusion of any other law. Entrants submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts of Australia.
Share your story of how you have or how you're planning on making Christmas less lonely and more festive for others this holiday season. By doing so, you could win an iPad for you and a friend – so you can stay connected whenever you want. Simply fill in the details on this page.
TRIPLE YOUR CHANCES
For extra entries, you can attach an image or video to accompany your story and / or sign up to our newsletter. You'll get an extra entry for each.
Please read these rules before entering the Giveaway (the “Sweepstakes”). You agree that, by submitting an entry, you will be bound by these Official Rules and you acknowledge that you satisfy all sweepstakes eligibility requirements. Eligibility If you are 13 or older at the time of entry, you are eligible to enter the Sweepstakes. Our employees, their immediate family members (spouses, domestic partners, parents, grandparents, siblings, children and grandchildren), and our affiliates, advisors or advertising/promotion agencies (and their immediate family members) are not eligible to enter the Sweepstakes.
How to Enter: You may enter the Sweepstakes beginning at 3.00 pm (AET) on 11th December 2020 and ending at 5.00 pm. (AET) on 21st December 2020 (the “Sweepstakes Period”). To enter you must: (1) go to vontreskow.com.au/giveaway and complete the online entry form.
Mailing List: By entering the Sweepstakes, you consent to being placed on a mailing list for promotional and other materials for Von Treskow. You may unsubscribe at any time clicking the "unsubscribe" link contained within the email.
Prize: We will award one Prize consisting of:
1 x $1000 Von Treskow gift voucher
This voucher can only be used on Von Treskow's online store & is not redeemable for cash.
Prize Drawing. The potential winner will be selected at a random drawing to be held on (& announced) on 22nd December 2020. We must receive eligible entries during the Sweepstakes Period for them to be eligible for the drawing. We will notify the potential winner by email within 5 business days following the drawing, and he/she will be required to contact us to arrange delivery. We will post the items free of charge, registered with Australia Post (eletronic prizes will be emailed to the winner). We will select an alternative potential winner if the potential winner does not claim the prize within 72 hours of notification, or meet the eligibility criteria. The prize will be awarded “AS IS” and WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND.
Odds of Winning: Odds of winning depend on the number of eligible entries received. You may increase your odds of winning by following the additional steps on the entry form.
Winner’s List: The winner will be notified by email and subsequently posted to Von Treskow's social media channels. The Sweepstakes is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with Facebook.
1. Information on how to enter and the prizes forms part of these Terms and Conditions.
2. Participation in this promotion is deemed acceptance of these Terms and Conditions.
The Promotional Period commences on Tuesday 8 December 2020 7.00pm (AEST) and
closes on Monday 21 December 2020 at 5.00pm (AEST). After this date, no further entries to
the competition will be permitted.
3. Entry is open to Australian residents over the age of 18 only.
4. There is a limit of one entry per person, unless the promoter offers additional entries via a
social media promotion, in which case, additional entries will be automatically added on the
participants behalf by the promoter.
5. Employees (and their immediate families) of the Promoter(s) and associated agencies are
ineligible to enter. Immediate family means any of the following: spouse, ex-spouse, defacto
spouse, child or step-child (whether natural or by adoption), parent, step-parent,
grandparent, step-grandparent, uncle, aunt, niece, nephew, brother, sister, step-brother,
step-sister or first cousin.
6. To enter, individuals must, during the Promotional Period: Visit the Source Mama web page,
or any of its linked pages/social media accounts and fill in all required fields of the
competition entry form.
7. The promoter is not responsible for inaccurate prize details supplied to any entrant by any
third party connected with this competition.
8. The prize is as follows:
• An accommodation package for 2 people for one night at the Novotel, South Bank
Brisbane valid for 12 months, valued at $250.00
• Saretta Art Design cushion covers, valued at $225.00
• A voucher for Avarcas Australia shoes, valued at $110.00
• Travino wine pack, valued at $84.85
• Dawn to Dusk Hamper from PrezziPak, valued at $125.00
• A voucher from Modibodi, valued at $100.00
• Cinch Skin bundle, valued at $99.85
• A voucher for Cammino Shoes, valued at $100.00
• Un-Wind Hamper Protection Kit, valued at $67.00
• Share Pack Aus Unwind and Create Hamper, valued at $45.00
• Small Things Wine Can trio, valued at $30.00
• The Laughing Pug Coffee Pack, valued at $40.00
• Love Pia Christmas Cookies, valued at $38.50
• Special Book by Melanie Dimmitt, valued at $30.00
• Kuungana Nurture Balms, valued at $44.00
• Raw Beauty Boxes bath bomb and body cleanser, valued at $36.90
9. The prize is as stated and no cash or other alternatives will be offered. The prizes are not
transferable. Prizes are subject to availability and we reserve the right to substitute any
prize with another of equivalent value without giving notice.
10. The winner will be notified by email within 7 days of the closing date. If the winner cannot
be contacted or do not claim the prize within 7 days of notification, we reserve the right to
withdraw the prize from the winner and pick a replacement winner.
11. The prize will be emailed/posted to the winner within Australia.
12. The Promoter has no control over Internet or mobile telephone communications, network
lines, bugs, viruses and server problems and accepts no responsibility for any problems
associated with them, for any reason.
13. The Promoter accepts no responsibility for any tax liability incurred as a result of entering
and participating in the Promotion. Any tax liability arising as a result of accepting any Prize
is the responsibility of the winner.
14. Any Entry that is lodged by automatic, repetitive, robotic, programmed or similar entry
methods or agents, including the use of a competition entry service (as determined in the
absolute discretion of the Promoter) will be void.
15. The winner will be selected via electronic draw at Source Mama: 3/24 Venture Drive on
Monday 21 December 2020 at 5.00pm (AEST).
16. The winners will be notified by telephone and in writing via email. The Promoter’s decision
is final in relation to all aspects of this promotion and no correspondence will be entered
into.
17. The Promoter reserves the right, at any time, to verify the validity of entries, registrations
and entrants (including an entrant’s identity, age and place of residence) and to disqualify
any entrant who submits an entry or registration that is not in accordance with these Terms
and Conditions or who tampers with the entry/registration process. Errors and omissions
may be accepted at the Promoter's discretion. Failure by the Promoter to enforce any of its
rights at any stage does not constitute a waiver of those rights.
18. Subject to the unclaimed prize draw clause, if for any reason a winner does not take a prize
by the time stipulated by the Promoter, then the prize will be forfeited.
19. If any prize is unavailable, the Promoter, in its discretion, reserves the right to substitute the
prize with a prize to the equal value and/or specification, subject to the relevant authorities.
20. The Prize is not transferable or exchangeable and cannot be taken as cash.
21. If a Prize is not available for any reason, the Promoter may substitute an alternative prize to
at least the value and of a similar standard as the Prize that is not available.
22. The promoter makes no representation or warranty about the fitness for purpose or
merchantable quality of the Prize.
23. Entrants consent to the Promoter using their name and/or image in the event they are a
winner in any media for an unlimited period without remuneration for its promotional and
publicity purposes.
24. The Promoter may, subject to any written directions from a regulatory authority, modify,
suspend, terminate or cancel the promotion, as appropriate.
25. The Promoter collects personal information in order to conduct the promotion and may, for
this purpose, disclose such information to third parties, including but not limited to agents,
contractors, service providers, prize suppliers and, as required, to Australian regulatory
authorities. Entry is conditional on providing this information. The Promoter may, for an
indefinite period, unless otherwise advised, use the information for promotional, marketing,
publicity, research and profiling purposes, including sending electronic messages or
telephoning the Eligible Entrant. Eligible Entrants should direct any request to opt out,
access, update or correct information to the Promoter. All entries become the property of
the Promoter.
26. The Promoter’s and judges’ decision is final and no correspondence will be entered into.
27. If this promotion is interfered within any way or is not capable of being conducted as
reasonably anticipated due to any reason beyond the reasonable control of the Promoter,
including but not limited to technical difficulties, unauthorised intervention or fraud, the
Promoter reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to the fullest extent permitted by law (a)
to disqualify any entrant; or (b) subject to any written directions from a regulatory
authority, to modify, suspend, terminate or cancel the promotion, as appropriate.
28. Nothing in these Terms and Conditions limits, excludes or modifies or purports to limit,
exclude or modify the statutory consumer guarantees as provided under the Competition
and Consumer Act, as well as any other implied warranties under similar consumer
protection laws in the State and Territories of Australia (Non-Excludable Guarantees).
Except for any liability that cannot by law be excluded, including the Non-Excludable
Guarantees, the Promoter (including its respective officers, employees and agents) is not
responsible for and excludes all liability for any personal injury or any loss or damage
whether direct, indirect, special or consequential arising in any way out of the promotion or
use of a Prize.
29. The Promoter is Source Kids Ltd. (ABN 36 614 552 171) of PO Box 690, Noosaville, QLD 4566
1. General terms and conditions
1.1 RSL Art Union Lottery Draws are conducted by the Returned & Services League of Australia (Queensland Branch) ABN 79 902 601 713 (‘we’, ‘us’ and ‘our’). The RSL Art Union Lottery Draws are conducted for the purposes of funding veteran welfare and support in Australia pursuant to State/Territory lottery licencing approvals as identified in the draw-specific terms and conditions
1.2 For the purposes of these terms and conditions, ‘Art Union’ means the RSL Art Union Lottery Draws, ‘Draw’ means each and every individual draw conducted by us, whether an art union, trade promotion or otherwise but does not include a Weekly Bonus Draw or a Quarterly Bonus Draw or any other bonus draw unless specified in the terms and conditions applicable to that bonus draw, ‘General Terms and Conditions’ means this document and ‘Terms and Conditions’ means the General Terms and Conditions and any other document incorporated by reference in these terms and conditions. A reference in the Terms and Conditions to the singular includes the plural and vice versa.
1.3 Additional terms and conditions apply to each Draw (‘Draw Terms and Conditions’). The Draw Terms and Conditions are available at https://www.rslartunion.com.au/TermsAndConditions?type=Draw.
1.4 Additional terms and conditions apply to the RSL Art Union VIP Club, weekly draws and quarterly draws (‘VIP Club Terms and Conditions’, ‘5k Pay Day Draw Terms and Conditions’, ‘Quarterly Cash Draw Terms and Conditions’) as well as any other bonus draw. The VIP Club Terms and Conditions are available at https://rslartunion.com.au/TermsAndConditions?type=VIP,
the 5K Pay Day Draw Terms and Conditions are available at https://www.rslartunion.com.au/TermsAndConditions?type=5k+Pay+Day and
the Quarterly Cash Draw Terms and Conditions are available at https://www.rslartunion.com.au/TermsAndConditions?type=Quarterly+Cash. The terms and conditions for any bonus draw will be included as a link on this page where required.
1.5 The Draw Terms and Conditions, VIP Club Terms and Conditions, 5k Pay Day Draw Terms and Conditions, Quarterly Cash Draw Terms and Conditions and the terms and conditions for any bonus draw as well as any information on how to enter a Draw and purchase tickets form part of the Terms and Conditions.
1.6 The Terms and Conditions apply to all entries into and/or prizes awarded in the Art Union. We reserve the right to change the Terms and Conditions at any time without notice, subject to State/Territory lottery licencing approval, by posting such changes on our website www.rslartunion.com.au.
1.7 The laws of Queensland apply to the conduct of the Art Union and the construction of the Terms and Conditions
2. Conditions of entry
2.1 To enter the Art Union, a person must either purchase one or more tickets in a Draw, correctly complete the details required on the ticket order form, online purchase path or as requested by our sales agent (‘Entry Details’) and nominate:
(a) themselves;
(b)themselves and another person together; or
(c) another person
as the person on the ticket and the entrant in a Draw. Art Union prizes must be transferred to the person or persons named on the ticket at the time of purchase. For example: any prize home will be registered in the name of the person or persons named on the ticket and no other person. A person purchasing a ticket, whether for themselves or someone else, is deemed to have agreed to and accepted these Terms and Conditions so far as they apply to purchasers of tickets.
2.2 For online purchases, a person nominates themselves or themselves and another person together as entrant in a Draw by establishing an online account (‘Art Union account’) in their name, or in the names of themselves and another person and using that account to purchase a ticket which is not a gift.
2.3 A person who enters a Draw (‘you, your’) is deemed to have accepted and agreed to the Terms and Conditions, unless you received the ticket as a gift. If you received the tickets as a gift, you may elect to cancel the ticket before the closing date of the Draw if you don’t agree with the Terms and Conditions. If you do not cancel the ticket before the closing date, you are deemed to have accepted and agreed to the Terms and Conditions.
2.4 Entry in the Art Union is open to Australian and overseas residents who are at least 18 years old who are not ineligible for entry (‘eligible person’). The following persons are ineligible for entry in the Art Union:
(a) a member of our management committee, including our board of directors and executive management;
(b) our employees or employees of our subsidiaries, including Mates4Mates Limited ABN 54 160 646 999;
(c) all other parties (and their employees and agents) directly engaged in conducting the Draw;
(d) a family member of a person caught by paragraphs (a) and (b), including spouses, de facto spouses, parents, step-parents, siblings, step-siblings, children and adopted children; and
(e) any residents of the United States of America, United Kingdom or the European Union who have not purchased tickets in any Draw prior to 25 May 2018.
2.5 You may not enter the Art Union in the name of a corporate entity, a trust, a self-managed superannuation fund or other fund, an unincorporated association or a syndicate. Any entry where you are named “as trustee for” is also ineligible. Any trustee arrangements are internal matters for you or the purchaser and are not permitted to be stated on the ticket.
2.6 It is your responsibility as an entrant in the Art Union to ensure that you are eligible under all applicable laws (including the laws of your country if you are an overseas resident) to accept the prize should you win the Draw.
2.7 We reserve the right to disqualify entries in the event of non-compliance with the Terms and Conditions.
3. Tickets
3.1 We will issue a ticket to you after we receive:
(a) all Entry Details; and
(b) payment in full for the ticket
regardless of whether received from you or another person.
3.2 Once a ticket has been issued, the details associated with that ticket (including your name and address) cannot be amended or updated, however a ticket may be cancelled and a new ticket issued with amended or updated details if you request us to do so before the closing date of the Draw. Art Union prizes must be transferred to the person or persons named on the ticket. For example: any prize home will be registered in the name of the person or persons named on the ticket and no other person.
3.3 Tickets are numbered consecutively within the licensed ticket range however tickets within multiple ticket book purchases may not be consecutively numbered.
3.4 The following pricing applies to tickets in $5 Art Union Lottery Draws:
$5 book – 1 entry;
$10 book – 2 entries – one of which may win first prize ,plus $10,000.00 bonus gold bullion;
$20 book – 5 entries – one of which may win first prize, plus $20,000.00 bonus gold bullion;
$50 book – 14 entries – one of which may win first prize, plus $50,000.00 bonus gold bullion;
$80 book – 23 entries– one of which may win first prize, plus $80,000.00 bonus gold bullion;
$100 book – 30 entries– one of which may win first prize, plus $100,000.00 bonus gold bullion.
The maximum order that can be placed in one transaction is $1,000 consisting of 10 x $100 books.
3.5 The following pricing applies to tickets in the Golden Treasure draw:
$10 book – 1 entry – which may win first prize;
$20 book – 2 entries – one of which may win first prize;
$30 book - 4 entries – one of which may win first prize, plus a $30,000.00 bonus gold bullion;
$100 book – 15 entries– one of which may win first prize, plus $100,000.00 bonus gold bullion;
The maximum order that can be placed in one transaction is $1,500 consisting of 10 x $150 books
3.6 Ticket books must be purchased in a single transaction. Where a ticket within a ticket book is determined as the winning entry, the bonus gold is payable on the value of the ticket book purchased which contains the winning ticket. For the avoidance of doubt, where multiple ticket books are purchased, and a winning ticket is drawn from within one of the ticket books, the bonus gold payable is calculated based on the individual ticket book value that contains the winning ticket and not based on the combined total value of the ticket book purchases.
3.7 Tickets cannot be combined to form a book with gift tickets that are purchased in the same transaction. By way of example only, where an order is placed for one $5 ticket and one $5 gift ticket, these are independent transactions and do not form a $10 book of two entries eligible for $10,000 bonus gold bullion
4. Gift tickets
4.1 Where a ticket or ticket book is purchased as a gift:
(a) the gift recipient, and not the purchaser, will be the entrant in the Draw;
(b) in the case of a ticket book gift in which one of the tickets is drawn as the winning ticket, the gift recipient, and not the purchaser, will receive any bonus gold bullion.
4.2 If the purchaser is a VIP member and purchases a ticket as a gift for someone else, the purchaser will be entered into subsequent draws in accordance with the purchaser’s nominated subscription amount and not the gift recipient.
5. Multiple entrants
5.1 Where a ticket or ticket book is purchased by a purchaser on behalf of themselves and another person:
(a) both the purchaser and the other person will be the entrant in the Draw;
(b) the purchaser warrants that they have the authority to enter the Draw and accept the Terms and Conditions on the other person’s behalf;
(c) if one of the tickets purchased is drawn as the winning ticket, any prize will be transferred to both the purchaser and the other person as joint tenants;
(d) in the case of a ticket book purchase in which one of the tickets is drawn as the winning ticket, both the purchaser and the other person jointly will receive any bonus gold bullion;
5.2 If the purchaser is a VIP member and nominates themselves and another person as account holders, the purchaser and the other person will be entered into subsequent draws in accordance with the nominated subscription amount. Both account holders together will be taken to be a single VIP member for the purpose of the Weekly Bonus Draw and Quarterly Bonus Draw.
5.3 We will not be liable for any loss or damage whatsoever which is suffered or sustained by you or any other person as a result of the warranty given under clause 5.1(b) being incorrect.
6. Art Union Accounts
6.1 You cannot have more than one Art Union account in your name, even if the second Art Union account is in your name with another person’s name.
6.2 Details associated with an Art Union account may only be updated or amended by an account holder, unless we receive valid documentation from another person authorising them to do so. This means that if you establish an Art Union account in your name and the name of another person, the other person may amend or update the details on your Art Union account.
6.3 We will require sufficient evidence of your identity and authority to act if you contact us and request any changes to your name (or a joint account holder’s name) on your Art Union account or for a joint account holder’s name to be removed from an Art Union account.
6.4 Making any change to your Art Union account will not change the details on any ticket you have already purchased in a Draw. When a change is made to the name of an account holder or the removal of a joint account holder’s name the Art Union account will be closed. A new Art Union account will be created with the new account name details.
7. Payments
7.1 Tickets in the Art Union must be purchased in Australian dollars via the following payment methods:
(a) Cheques – make payable to RSL Art Union. All correspondence is to be directed to Locked Bag 4032, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006;
(b) Money orders – see the Draw terms and conditions for directions on payment of money orders. All correspondence is to be directed to Locked Bag 4032, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006;
(c) Cash – payable at the sales kiosk in the prize home only (selected Draws only);
(d) Credit Card and Debit Card - Visa, Mastercard and AMEX;
(e) Direct Debit; or
(f) Paypal.
7.2 Only entries that have been paid for in full will be included in the Draw.
7.3 Where you wish to purchase tickets by cheque or direct debit, you must make sure that payment is received by us no less than four (4) Brisbane business days before the closing date of the Draw. The funds must clear before we will issue any tickets to you. If:
(a) the funds are not received less than 4 Brisbane business days before the closing date of the Draw;
(b) the funds do not clear before the closing date of the Draw; or
(c) the Draw has sold out prior to the funds being received or clearing;
we will issue you tickets in the next Draw, unless you request a refund.
7.4 Payments for the purchase of Art Union tickets are not tax deductible.
7.5 A ticket issued also acts as the payment receipt for the purchase.
8. Refunds
8.1 We will allow refunds for the purchases of tickets in an open Draw in the following circumstances:
(a) if you contact us and request the tickets to be cancelled;
(b) if you receive the tickets as a gift and you do not accept the Terms and Conditions;
(c) if we amend the Terms and Conditions and you do not accept the amended Terms and Conditions.
8.2 We will also refund you in the following circumstances:
(a) if you try to purchase a ticket in a Draw after that Draw is closed;
(b) if you try to purchase tickets in a Draw that is sold out;
(c) if you try to purchase tickets in a Draw via cheque or direct debit and the payment is not received by us in time, or does not clear before the closing date of the Draw.
8.3 Refunds will be issued via the same method in which payment was originally received, except for cash (see clause 9). If you received the ticket as a gift, the payment will be refunded to the purchaser and not to you.
8.4 We will refund the amount of the purchase in Australia dollars. We are not responsible for any currency conversion or associated fees if you are located outside of Australia.
9. Wallet
9.1 When you (or a purchaser) requests to purchase tickets using cash, we will establish a ‘wallet’ that will store the value of the cash you provided for the transaction or future transactions.
9.2 If you give us cash to purchase tickets but you give us more or less cash than required to purchase the tickets in full, we will apply the funds to purchase either the tickets you requested or as many tickets as can be purchased using the amount of cash you gave us, whichever costs the least. Any surplus funds will be stored as a balance in the wallet for future use until we are directed to apply these funds to a future order.
9.3 You may request for the balance of your wallet to be refunded, but if you do so, any balance in the wallet must be withdrawn. You cannot withdraw part of a balance.
10. RSL Art Union VIP Club
10.1 If you choose to sign up to the RSL Art Union VIP Club, the VIP Club Terms and Conditions will apply.
11. Transfer of prizes
11.1 Where we are unable to provide you with the nominated prize, or you are unable to legally own or receive the nominated prize, or where we are unable deliver a prize due to natural disaster, fire, theft, destruction or other circumstances beyond our control as may arise from time to time, we may at our discretion offer you a substitute prize of the same value in Australian Dollars in our absolute discretion, subject to any written directions from the relevant State or Territory gaming departments.
11.2 We will only transfer prizes and title in any property to the winner named as the entrant on the winning ticket, subject to the production and verification of valid identification. If there are two people listed as the entrant on the ticket, the prize will be transferred to both people as joint tenants. Any cost and expenses associated with transfer from the prize winner’s name to another person is the sole responsibility of the winner.
11.3 If you are a foreign resident and you are declared to be the winner of land in Australia, you may be required to obtain relevant approvals from the Australian Government authority before we can transfer the property to you. If such approval is required, you must promptly apply to the relevant authority and obtain requisite approval within a reasonable time before the prize can be transferred to you. We may assist in this process but are not obligated to do so. You are responsible for the costs of any application and also for any costs associated with the acquisition of land by a foreign person, other than those costs set out in these Terms and Conditions. If approval is not obtained or not obtained within what we determine is a reasonable time, we will provide you with a substitute prize of the same value in Australian dollars in accordance with legislative requirements, subject to any written directions from the relevant State or Territory gaming departments. We will notify you of timeframes or substitute prizes if this applies to you.
12. Agents
12.1 We may, from time to time, engage with third party agents to assist with provisioning the sale of tickets and facilitating entries in the Art Union. The following third-party agents are authorised by us and may receive the following commission for their contributions:
(a) AIDA Direct Pty Ltd ABN 31 138 300 482 (www.aidagroup.com.au, (07) 5656 0404) – an estimated 2% of total gross proceeds of the appeal;
(b) Global Interactive Group Pty Ltd ABN 70 099 460 812 (www.gig.live, (07) 5570 3337) – an estimated 4.6% of total gross proceeds of the appeal;
(c) Concentrix Services Pty Ltd ACN 166 171 991 (www.concentrix.com, 1300 288 808) - an estimated 2.7% of total gross proceeds of the appeal;
(d) Public Outreach Consultancy (Australia) Pty Ltd ACN 122 460 440 (www.publicoutreachaustralia.com, 03 8669 1573) - an estimated 0.3% of total gross proceeds of the appeal;
(e) Community Collective Group Pty Ltd ABN 85 611 674 509 (www.communitycollective.com.au, (08) 9380 9948), - an estimated 0.1% of total gross proceeds of the appeal;
(f) Ponder & Partners Pty Ltd, ABN 65 629 189 519, (www.ponder.partners, 0405 068 410) – an estimated 0.1% of total gross proceeds of the appeal;
(g) Advertiser Contributions – where ticket purchases are made through affiliated online advertisers, up to a maximum of 20% of the total value of the order.
13. Privacy and Communications
13.1 Your participation in the Art Union constitutes an invitation for us to contact you in relation to, among other things, offering you tickets in future lotteries, matters relating to your ticket purchase and to notify you of the outcome of the Art Union. Please refer to https://www.rslartunion.com.au/PrivacyPolicy to view our Privacy Policy for information on how we deal with your personal information. At any time, you may elect to opt out of marketing communications.
13.2 To purchase tickets in the Art Union, you must supply at least one method of contact for ticket issuance and service messaging. We reserve the right to send you service-related communications to you subject to our Privacy Policy regardless of your contact preference. These service-related communications may include, by way of example only, updates to the Terms and Conditions, to deliver tickets purchased, updates to our privacy policy and anything else required to fulfil your purchase from us.
14. Disclaimer
14.1 Any and all products, brand names, logos, images and/or trademarks as displayed or referred to on the Art Union website are owned by the respective trademark owners. We do not warrant to have an affiliation with any trademark owner referenced on this website.
14.2 We use all reasonable endeavours to ensure that information on this website is correct but we do not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information provided and will not be held liable for any inaccuracy, omission, variation or error. Photographs and floor plans are for illustrative purposes only and may not be to scale or depict exact prize detail or size. Art Union themes and prizes do not necessarily reflect our views or the views of our staff.
14.3 By entering the Art Union, you acknowledge that these terms and conditions provide adequate warning of eligibility requirements, alternative prize arrangements and afford a reasonable opportunity for you to seek your own independent legal advice prior to taking transfer of the prize.
14.4 To the extent permitted by law, including pursuant to schedule 2 of the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (Cth), (‘Australian Consumer Law’), we shall not be liable for any loss or damage of whatsoever nature however occasioned to any person by, through or in connection with the Art Union (including but not limited to direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage or personal injury). We will not be liable to you or any winner for any financial consequences (including but not limited to any taxation liability (such as land tax or transfer duty) and/ or levy that may accrue to you or a winner, impact upon eligibility for or receipt of any pension, benefit allowance, superannuation or similar entitlement or any additional legal or other fees, including insurances on or after the transfer of any property) to you or the winner as a result of winning a prize.
14.5 Our services come with guarantees that cannot be excluded under the Australian Consumer Law. For major failures with the service, you are entitled:
(a) to cancel your service contract with us; and
(b) to a refund for the unused portion, or to compensation for its reduced value.
You are also entitled to be compensated for any other reasonably foreseeable loss or damage. If the failure does not amount to a major failure you are entitled to have problems with the service rectified in a reasonable time and, if this is not done, to cancel your contract and obtain a refund for the unused portion of the contract.
15. Additional conditions
15.1 Photographs and floor plans are for illustrative purposes only and some staging accessories and decorative items may not be included in the prize. Any vehicles shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not included in the prize.
15.2 Floor plans are not to scale and may not be a full representation of the prize home. For the purposes of these Terms and Conditions a prize home also includes a prize unit.
15.3 All prize values are listed in Australian currency.
15.4 Prizes cannot be transferred or exchanged, and non-cash prizes are not redeemable for cash.
15.5 Prize Homes
(a) Any rental estimates are provided for informational purposes only
(b) We will pay council rates, water and body corporate fees relating to a prize home for the first 12 months following the date of the Draw, excluding any water consumption fees, additional government invoked levies, or any special levies initiated by a body corporate. This part of the prize is not transferable if you sell the prize home during the first 12 months following the date of the Draw and we will not be liable for any of these expenses which arise after the date of sale.
(c) Except for the costs set out in clause 15.5(b), all other costs are solely your responsibility from the date the prize home is handed over to you or after 14 days from the day the winner of the Draw is decided, whichever comes first. You will also be responsible for the security, maintenance, insurance, electricity, gas, telecommunications, internet, and all other costs and expenses associated with the prize property from that date.
(d) If it is necessary for us to incur holding costs associated with securing or maintaining the prize home beyond the date in clause 15.5(c) because of a delay caused by you or something within your control (for example, if you are a foreign resident and do not promptly apply to the relevant authority for approval as required by clause 11.3 of the General Terms and Conditions), we reserve the right to claim reimbursement from you for these holding costs.
(e) Prize values are based on the recommended retail prices at the time of purchase (inclusive of GST).
(f) You must accept the prize home in its as is, where is condition, subject to legislative requirements.
(g) You acknowledge that the prize home may be encumbered by easements, restrictive covenants or have ongoing development covenants that may affect the prize home or its ongoing use. You agree to accept the prize home subject to any such covenant or restriction and to sign any document required in order to give effect to any ongoing responsibilities or covenants.
15.6 Gold Bullion
(a) Where the prize includes gold bullion, the gold is valued at the purchase price on the date of purchase.
(b) Selling costs and market variations apply when selling gold bullion.
15.7 Travel
(a) Where the prize includes travel, you will receive a voucher from a travel agency nominated by us in the name of the winner.
(b) Travel vouchers are not transferable and cannot be redeemed for cash. Further conditions apply, please refer to our suppliers’ terms and conditions, https://www.flightcentre.com.au/gift-card-terms-and-conditions
15.8 Cash
(a) Where the prize consists of cash or a cash component, you are responsible for any costs (including bank charges and fees) relating to the delivery of the prize or the cash component, including any fluctuations in the rate of exchange occurring between the relevant draw date and the delivery of the prize or cash component.
1. Information on how to enter this Campaign forms part of these Terms and Conditions.
2. Completion of the Entry Procedure and participation in this Campaign is deemed acceptance of these Terms and Conditions.
3. This Campaign is being coordinated by SunSense and Paradise Resort. Any reference to SunSense or Paradise Resort includes and is intended to be a reference to the Promoter also.
4. Any questions or comments regarding the Campaign should be directed to the SunSense Instagram Account and not to Instagram.
5. In these Terms and Conditions and the Campaign, the following terms have the meaning set out opposite them:
Campaign Period
Commences at: 10am 8 December 2020 (AEST)
Ends at: 11.59pm 17th December 2020 (AEST)
persons that:
(a) are residents of Australia aged 18 years of age or older;
(b) are an Instagram Member with a current Instagram Account;
(c) are eligible to take the Prize when required.
Entrant a person that meets the Eligibility Criteria and completes an Entry into the Campaign in accordance with these Terms and Conditions
Entry is the result of completing the Entry Procedure in accordance with these Terms and Conditions and includes all content (which includes without limitation any text, images, photos or videos) that is submitted, uploaded, published, created, communicated or used as part of the Entry Procedure
Entrants must:
(a) access their Instagram Account;
(b) Go to @paradiseresortgc Instagram Account
(c) Follow @paradiseresortgc and @sunsenseaus on Instagram
(d) Tag 1 friend and comment with their favourite summer activity
(d) accept these Terms and Conditions
Instagram means the social networking site available at www.instagram.com which members of the public can join (subject to the terms and conditions of Instagram)
Instagram Account an account with Instagram set up by an Instagram User. Instagram User a person who has registered, been accepted as, and continues to be a member of Instagram and bound by Instagram terms and conditions
Name of the account: SunSense: @sunsenseaus Paradise Resort: @paradiseresortgc
https://www.instagram.com/sunsenseaus/tagged/?hl=en
https://www.instagram.com/paradiseresortgc/?hl=en
Judges will take into account the accuracy of the quality, originality, creativity of the Entry as well as the relevance of the Entry to the Campaign and any other factor that the judges consider relevant in determining the winner(s) of the Prize
Maximum Number of Entries : 1 per consumer
Prizes will be dispatched within 28 days of receiving the winner(s) postal address.
24 prize packs, each including:
Cooler Bag $24.95
Junior roll on $ 9.95
Sport 200g $16.95
Moisturising Face $14.99
Anti-aging face $20.95
Lip Balm $5.95
Total prize pool value: $2249.76 Individual prize pack value: $93.74
Name: Ego Pharmaceuticals Holdings Pty Ltd
Address: 6 Oppenheim Way, Dandenong South VIC 3175
Name: Paradise Resort
Address: 122 Ferny Avenue, Surfers Paradise, QLD 4217
Means these Terms and Conditions and includes any variations or amendments
Means a Prize winner selected pursuant to these Terms and Conditions
6. In addition, unless otherwise stated, in these Terms and Conditions and the Campaign:
a) All monetary values are in Australian Dollars;
b) All values and amounts that appear in these Terms and Conditions are inclusive of GST;
c) Headings are for reference purposes only.
7. Participation in this Campaign is only open to those persons who meet the Eligibility Criteria.
8. Employees (and their immediate families) of the Promoter and Paradise Resort are ineligible to enter. Immediate families include: spouse, child (natural or adopted), parent, grandparent, siblings, uncle, aunt, niece, nephew or cousin (by blood, marriage or relationship).
9. The Promoter reserves the right, at any time, to verify the eligibility of an Entrant and to disqualify any Entrant that does not meet the Eligibility Criteria.
10. Any costs associated with meeting the Eligibility Criteria must be met by that person and not the Promoter.
11. This Campaign is a game of skill and chance plays no part in determining the Winner.
12. To enter, eligible persons must complete the Entry Procedure during the Campaign Period.
13. Entries not completed in accordance with these Terms and Conditions will be rejected and any late, incomplete, indecipherable or illegible Entries will be deemed invalid. Entries will be deemed accepted at the time of receipt by The Promoter and not at the time of transmission.
14. Where the Entry Procedure caps the maximum number of words allowed, only the first words up to that cap will be considered as part of the Entry and all subsequent words will be disregarded. Each image will be counted as one word.
15. Entrants are limited to the Maximum Number of Entries. Multiple Entries (where permitted) must be submitted separately and be substantially unique to the previous Entries. Where an Entrant attempts to submit more than the Maximum Number of Entries, all additional or subsequent Entry(s) will be disqualified and ineligible for a Prize.
16. Where an Entry is capable of being edited, the time of the edit will be deemed to be the time that the Entry was submitted and only the final edited Entry will be considered. Any Entry that is edited after the Campaign Period will be disregarded and the previous unedited Entry will be included for judging.
17. Each Entry must be relevant to the Campaign as determined by The Promoter in their absolute discretion. The Promoter reserves the right to review the Entries during the Campaign Period and remove and reject any which are offensive, inappropriate, defamatory or otherwise not in keeping with the spirit of the Campaign.
18. The Promoter reserves the right, at any time, to verify compliance with the Entry Procedure, and to disqualify any Entrant that tampers, interferes or manipulates the Entry Procedure.
19. Errors and omissions may be accepted at The Promoter discretion however failure by The Promoter to enforce any of their rights at any stage does not constitute a waiver of those rights.
20. Any costs associated with applying, entering or participating in the Campaign (including internet access and download charges) will be at the cost of the Entrant.
21. If an Entrant would like to remove their Entry from publication on Instagram or from consideration for a Prize, they must request removal via Private Message to the SunSense Instagram Account which request will be attended to within 14 days of a request being made. Once removed, that Entry will no longer be eligible for a Prize.
Consents and warranties on entry
22. Entrants agree to their Entry being used by the Promoter in the future and grant them a non-exclusive, royalty-free, perpetual, worldwide, irrevocable and sub-licensable transferable licence to use, reproduce, modify, adapt, publish and display the Entry for any purpose in any media without compensation, restriction on use, attribution or liability. Entrants warrant that they have full authority to grant these rights and will not assert any moral rights in respect of the Entry.
23. Entrants warrant and agree that:
a) They will not submit, produce, upload or share any content that is fraudulent, or may be in breach of any intellectual property, privacy or other rights;
b) No rights in the Entry have been previously granted to any person, corporation or entity;
c) They will obtain full prior consent from any person who has jointly created or has any rights in the Entry or who appears (or who's property appears) in the content forming part of the Entry;
d) They will comply with all applicable laws and regulations including without limitation those governing copyright, content, defamation, privacy, publicity and the access of use of others' computer or communication systems.
24. Without limiting the above, the Entrant indemnifies the Promoter against all loss, damages and costs incurred by the Promoter as a result of any breach of the above warranties.
25. Entrants understand, acknowledge and agree that:
a) Their Entry (or parts thereof) may be posted on the Promoter ’s website and available for public viewing; and
b) By participating in this Campaign, information, links or names may be displayed on the Instagram App or their Instagram news feed or account.
26. Unless expressly permitted by these Terms and Conditions, participation in this Campaign does not entitle any person or Entrant to use any of the Promoter ’s intellectual property rights (including any trademark or content) for any purpose.
27. At the end of the Campaign Period, the Promoter will judge all valid Entries received during the Campaign Period taking into account the Judging Criteria.
28. All decisions of the Promoter are final and no correspondence will be entered into.
29. The best entry as determined by the Promoter will win a prize.
30. The Winner will be notified by direct message on Instagram within 14 days of a determination being made.
31. The total Prize Pool Value for this Campaign is specified in clause 5.
32. The Promoter will use its reasonable endeavours to deliver the Prize to the Winner within 28 days of being selected pursuant to the above clauses.
33. If the Promoter are unable to contact a Winner, or the Winner does not claim their Prize within three (3) months of being notified they are a Winner, then that Winner will forfeit their Prize and no cash or other prize will be awarded in lieu.
34. It is an Entrant’s responsibility to notify the Promoter if their personal details change during the Campaign Period. If a Winner fails to provide a valid or complete address for delivery of the Prize, or delivery has not been successful to an address provided (after reasonable attempts by the Promoter the Prize shall be forfeited by the Winner.
35. Prize is not transferable or exchangeable and cannot be taken as cash. If any Prize is unavailable, the Promoter may at its discretion substitute the Prize with a prize of equal value.
36. If a Prize includes a voucher, the voucher is only valid until the expiry date specified on the voucher or by the provider, and is subject to the terms and conditions imposed by the provider. The Promoter will not be liable for any voucher that is lost, stolen, damaged or tampered with after it is awarded
37. As a condition of accepting a Prize, a Winner may be requested to sign legal documentation in the form required by the Promoter including a release and indemnity form.
38. To the extent permitted by law, the Promoter (and their respective officers, contractors, employees, agents and representatives) will not be liable for any personal injury, loss (including loss of opportunity), damage (including, but not limited to, direct, indirect or consequential loss), cost, expense or claim arising from or in relation to:
a) the Campaign;
b) any Entry or the Entry Procedure;
c) any variation in the value of a Prize;
d) any tax liability incurred as a result of being awarded a Prize;
e) any Prize that is late, lost, altered, damaged or misdirected; or
f) the use of the Prize.
Variation to Campaign
39. The Promoter may in its absolute discretion, but subject to State and Territory laws, modify, suspend, cancel, recommence or extend this Campaign as appropriate if:
a) for any reason, this Campaign is not capable of running as planned due to technical, hardware or software failures or interferences, or changes to third party sites or platforms, which affect the administration, operation, security, fairness, integrity or proper conduct of the Campaign;
b) the level of interest or participation in the Campaign is insufficient or there has been some delay in commencing the Campaign; or
c) the Entry Procedure, determination of Winner or delivery of Prize is prevented, hindered or affected by any external agent or event beyond the reasonable control of the Promoter.
Instagram Acknowledgements
40. Participation in this Campaign is considered acceptance of the following:
a) a complete release of Instagram for any liability whatsoever of the Entrant;
b) an acknowledgement that this Campaign is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with Instagram; and
c) that the information provided by each Entrant is provided to the Promoter and the Promoter and not to Instagram.
41. Participation is conditional upon the Entrant complying with all rules, regulations and guidelines set down and amended by Instagram from time to time.
42. All Entries become the property of the Promoter.
43. The information that each Entrant provides will only be used in connection with, or relating to, the administration of this Campaign and support of the Promoter ’ social network pages (including without limitation, any marketing communications you opt-in to receive from the Promoter ) and in accordance with these Terms and Conditions.
Personal information that may be collected in association with this Campaign is dealt with in accordance with the https://www.qvskincare.com.au/privacy-policy.html , https://www..com.au/privacy-policy-cookie-restriction-mode/, http://www.vibevillage.com.au/other/Privacypolicy.aspx.
44. If any term or condition of these Terms and Conditions or the application thereof to any person or any circumstance shall be or become illegal, invalid or unenforceable, the same shall be read down, if such reading down is possible, and if found to be impossible, shall be severed and the remaining terms, agreements and conditions shall not be affected.
45. These Terms and Conditions are to be interpreted in accordance with the laws of the State of Victoria and all parties submit to the non-exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts of that State.
· The Promoter is Kinderling Digital Media Pty Ltd (ABN 60 621 255 007) of Unit 8/43 Bridge Rd, Stanmore NSW 2048.
· Information on how to enter and prizes forms part of the terms of entry. Entry into the competition is deemed acceptance of these terms and conditions.
· To the extent of any inconsistency between these Terms and Conditions and any other reference to this competition, these Terms and Conditions prevail.
· Entry and continued participation in the Promotion is dependent on entrants following and acting in accordance with the Facebook Statement of Rights and Responsibilities, which can be viewed at https://www.facebook.com/terms.php
· This promotion adheres to the terms and conditions set out in the Facebook promotion guidelines which can be found at: https://www.facebook.com/promotions_guidelines.php
· This promotion is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with, Facebook. Entrants understand that they are providing their information to the Promoter and not to Facebook. The information an entrant provides will only be used for the purposes outlined in these Terms and Conditions. Any questions, comments or complaints about this promotion must be directed to the Promoter and not to Facebook.
· All entrants unconditionally and irrevocably release and discharge Facebook from any and all liability in relation to this Promotion.
Who can enter
· Entry is open to all residents of Australia over the age of 18, except employees and immediate families of the Promoter and their associated companies and agencies and participating outlets. Immediate family means any of the following: spouse, ex-spouse, defacto spouse, child or step child (whether natural or by adoption), parent, step parent, grandparent, step grandparent, uncle, aunt, niece, nephew, brother, sister, step brother, step sister or 1st cousin.
· Entrants into this competition must be 18 years of age or older as at the date of entry.
· The Promoter reserves the right to request winners to provide proof of identity, proof of residency at the nominated prize delivery address and/or proof of entry validity or proof of registration ownership in order to claim a prize. Proof of identification, residency and entry considered suitable for verification is at the discretion of the Promoter. In the event that a winner cannot provide suitable proof, the winner will forfeit the prize in whole and no substitute will be offered.
When to enter
· The competition commences on 9th December 2020 at 9:00AM AEST and concludes on 5th January 2021 at 11:59PM AEST (“Promotional Period”). Entries must be received by the Promoter prior to the competition close date and time.
· The time of entry will in each case be the time the online entry is received by the Promoter’s database, not at the time of transmission by the entrant.
· Entrants must, during the Promotional Period:
o Visit the competition page at [URL] and submit their contact details as required, including full name and email address?
o Additional entries may also be submitted optionally by visiting the social channels and websites of Babyology and Bing Lee Electrics
· Entrants are required to take full responsibility for the content of their entry and for ensuring that their entry complies with these terms and conditions. For the purposes of these content requirements, “entry content” includes any content (including text, photos, videos and email messages) that entrants submit, upload, transmit, publish, communicate or use in connection with their entry into the Promotion. Entries must be the entrant’s original work. The Promoter reserves the right to verify, or to require the entrant to verify, that the entry is the entrant’s original work. If an entry cannot be verified to the Promoter’s satisfaction, the entry will be deemed invalid. The Promoter may, in its absolute discretion, edit, modify, delete, remove or take-down any part of an entrant’s entry. An entrant’s entry must not include:
o any image or voice of any other person without that person’s express consent (except when the image is of the entrant’s child or ward). Entrants warrant that if any such content is included, they have obtained the express consent of the relevant person;
o any content that contravenes any law, infringes the rights of any person or is potentially insulting, inflammatory, defamatory, obscene, offensive, discriminatory, indecent or otherwise objectionable or inappropriate (which includes, without limitation, any content involving nudity, malice, excessive violence or swearing); and
o any literary, dramatic, musical or artistic work, any audio-visual or sound recording, or any other item in which copyright subsists, unless the entrant is entitled to do so. If an entrant has any doubts about whether they have the right to include any content (for example, recorded music) they must not include it. By including any such content in their entry, the entrant warrants that they have the permission of the relevant copyright owner to do so and that this permission allows the Promoter to use the entry in accordance with these terms and conditions.
· The Promoter reserves the right to disqualify a winner if Promoter becomes aware that the winner and/or the winner’s entry is of a type described in this clause.
· Any entry that is made on behalf of an entrant by a third party will be invalid
· The Promoter reserves the right to disqualify any entrant who tampers with the entry process, who submits an entry that is not in accordance with these terms and conditions or who has, in the opinion of Promoter, engaged in conduct in entering the Promotion which is fraudulent, misleading, deceptive or generally damaging to the goodwill or reputation of the Promotion and/or Promoter
Number of Entries permitted
· Entrants may enter multiple times. Only one prize will be awarded per winning entry
Determination and Notification of winner
· The winner will be the valid entry submitted in accordance with these terms and conditions that is selected by the random generator at 9:00am on 6th January 2021 at unit 8/43 Bridge Rd, Stanmore NSW 2048.
· This Promotion is a game of chance. Skill plays no part in determining the winner.
· If any particular determination is scheduled on a public holiday, the determination will be take place on the following business day.
· The Promoter’s decision is final and the Promoter will not enter into correspondence regarding the Promotion result or any other decisions the Promoter makes in connection with the Promotion.
· The winner/s will be notified by a comment or private message via Facebook or by telephone or email within two days of being determined.
· Prizes will be awarded to person who submitted the entry. However, in a dispute, will be awarded to the account holder of the entry mechanism used to submit their entry (i.e. mobile phone account holder or land line account holder).
· Should an entrant’s contact details change during the promotional period, it is the entrant’s responsibility to notify the Promoter. A request to access or modify any information provided in an entry should be directed to the Promoter.
· If the winners have not claimed the prize by 19th January 2021, then he or she will forfeit the prize and another prize draw will be conducted by the random generator on 20th January 2021 at the same time and place as the original draw. The winner of the unclaimed prize will be notified by Facebook, telephone or email within two days of the date on which they are judged to be the unclaimed prize winner.
Prize on offer
· Total prize pool value is up to $2746 (including GST) as at 19th October 2020. One winner will receive:
o 1 x Dyson Supersonic Fuchsia
o 1 x Dyson v11 Outsize stick vacuum
o 1 x Dyson Pure Hot + Cool Fan (white/silver)
· No individual prize will exceed $1,000 and total annual value of prizes will not exceed $100,000
· Unless otherwise expressly stated, prize values are based upon the recommended retail prices at the time of first publication of these Terms and Conditions (inclusive of GST). The Promoter accepts no responsibility for change in prize value between now and the ultimate prize redemption date.
· Prizes cannot be transferred, exchanged or redeemed for cash.
· It is a condition of accepting the prize that the winner must comply with all the conditions of use of the prize and the prize supplier’s requirements
· It is a condition of accepting the prize that the winner may be required to sign a legal release in a form determined by the Promoter in its absolute discretion.
Competition starts Wednesday 9 December 2020 and runs until 11.59pm Sunday 20 December 2020 with one prize available each day. Winners will be notified via email shortly after each prize is closed. The person entering must be over 18 years old. By entering this competition you agree to be subscribed to our fortnightly Vacations & Travel enewsletter and marketing communications. You are able to unsubscribe at any time. The competition is open to Australian residents only. Prizes are non-transferable, non-refundable and not available to be exchanged for alternatives or cash. Accommodation prize bookings are subject to availability. Blackouts periods apply.
Accommodation prizes do not include: flights, airport transfers, local expenses, tours, rental gear or activities unless otherwise noted. Travel insurance is not included. We strongly suggest prize winners organise their own travel insurance. Vacations & Travel has the right to publish the name and state of the winners on vacationstravel.com. For general terms and conditions pertaining to Signature Media competitions, click here.
Gwinganna Lifestyle Retreat
Conditions apply and subject to availability. May not be combined with any other voucher or offer. Bookings should be made at least 45 days in advance. Valid for 12 months from date of prize draw, however if border restrictions are in place, this can be extended, some blackout dates apply. Prize is not transferable and has no cash value. Only available to residents of Australia and all guests must be aged 18 years and older.
Blue Mountains getaway for 6
Whispering Pines Holiday Cottages prize redeemable midweek only. Scenic World -blackout dates include not limited to 26 December 2020 to 3 January 2020. Prize winner will need to email reception@scenicworld.com.au to redeem the prize. Timed ticketing available only, bookings must be made prior to arrival. Limited tickets available. Winners will receive a Scenic World Family Pass. The winner and their guests will be subject to and must abide by the terms and conditions of Scenic World. Redemption will be subject to bookings availability. Prize consists of a ‘ScenicWorld Family Pass’, which is made up of two adult passes and two children passes (aged 4-13). Children under 4 are free. Prizes cannot be redeemed for cash.
Pacific Hotel Brisbane
Valid for stays until 30 November 2021. Bookings must be made by emailing or phoning (07 3831 6177) the reservations team, subject to availability.
Sydney Staycation Skye Suites
Blackout dates apply (can’t book on New Year’s). Bookings are subject to availability. Prize must be used by 30.06.21.
Information on how to enter the WIN an Australian Adventure Competition (“the Competition”) and the prize form part of these Terms and Conditions of entry. Participation in the Competition is deemed as acceptance of these Terms and Conditions.
The Promoter is Waratah Adventure Tours (“the Promoter”), PO BOX 824, Neutral Bay (Sydney), NSW, Australia. ABN 28 630 377 105.
Entry is open to Australian residents over the age of 18 only. Employees of the Promoter and their immediate families, associated agencies of this promotion, and companies associated with this promotion are not eligible to enter the promotions.
To enter the competition, you must register for, and provide your name and email address on the signup form found on the competition page.
The Competition commences at 9 am AEST on 2 December 2020 and will close at 11.59 pm AEST on 31 December 2020.
The winning entry will be drawn by 11 am AEST on 8th January 2021. The winning entry will be drawn at random.
The Promoter’s decision in relation to any aspects of the competition is final and binding on every person who enters and no correspondence will be entered into.
The winner will be notified by email and their win will be published on the promoter’s website and social media pages.
The prize must be claimed and includes a tour for two people to one of the promoted destinations; Uluru & Red Centre, NT – 5 Days, Daintree & Cape Tribulation, QLD – 8 Days, Highlights of Tasmania, TAS – 8 Days, Margaret River & Rottnest Island, WA – 8 Days. The prize is up to the value of $5,000.
In the event that for any reason whatsoever the winner does not claim the prize by 11.59 pm AEDT on 15 January 2021 then the prize will be forfeited by the winner. An unclaimed prize draw will then take place from all other eligible entries received by the Competition closing date.
The prize is not redeemable as cash and is non-exchangeable. It cannot be sold to any external persons or parties.
The personal information you provide in entering this competition will be used to conduct the competition. For more information about the Promoter’s privacy practices, including how to request access to personal information held by it and/or request that it be corrected, view the Promoter’s Privacy Policy at https://www.waratahadventures.com.au/privacy-policy/
Promotion Name Woodcare Car & Caravan Spin To Win Promotion
Promoter DuluxGroup (Australia) Pty Ltd (ABN 67 000 049 427) of 1956 Dandenong Road,
Clayton VIC 3168, telephone: 03 9263 5678
Promotion Type Game of Chance
Promotion Period 12:00AM AEDST on 1 October 2020 to 11:59PM AEDST on 31 December 2020
Entry restrictions 1. Entry is only open to Australian residents aged 18 years or over.
3. Employees (and their immediate families) of the Promoter, participating retailers
and agencies associated with this promotion are ineligible to enter. Immediate
family means any of the following: spouse, ex-spouse, de-facto spouse, child or
step-child (whether natural or by adoption), parent, step-parent, grandparent, stepgrandparent, uncle, aunt, niece, nephew, brother, sister, step-brother, step-sister
or 1st cousin.
How to enter 4. To be eligible to enter, individuals must spend $125 or more in a single transaction
on any Cabot’s or Intergrain branded product from a participating Mitre 10, Home
Timber and Hardware, Thrifty-Link or True Value Hardware store during the
Promotion Period (“Eligible Transaction”).
5. To enter, individuals must then visit www.woodcareprizes.com.au (“Website”),
follow the prompts to the promotion entry page, input the requested details
including full name, email address, postal address in which the entrant resides,
mobile phone number and select the store where the Eligible Transaction was
made from the dropdown menu and submit the fully completed entry form during
the Promotion Period.
Upon submitting the fully completed entry form, individuals will be automatically
directed to a virtual spinning wheel. Individuals must follow the prompts to spin the
wheel to reveal whether or not they have won an instant prize. Instant winners will
be notified immediately on screen as to which Instant Win Prize (defined below)
they have won and will be given instructions on how to claim their prize. Nonwinners will also be notified immediately on screen that they are not successful.
All non-winners will be automatically entered into the Second Chance Major Prize
Draw. For removal of doubt, instant prize winners will not be entered into the
Second Chance Major Prize Draw.
Instant Win Prizes 6. There are one hundred and one (101) Instant Win Prizes to be won as follows:
• five (5) x Oztrail 8-Person Family Tent valued at $199;
• five (5) x Weber Baby Q BBQ LP Q1000 (Black) valued at $339;
• fifty-five (55) x Retro 18Litre Cooler valued at $39.95;
• thirty-five (35) x Taupe Timber Market Umbrella (2.95m) valued at $89;
• the opportunity to play a contingency game (the “Game”) for the chance
to win a 2020 Ford Everest Ambiente (S) 3.2L 5-seater RWD 6-speed car
with automatic transmission valued at up to $50,790 and. The colour of
the car will be at the discretion of the Promoter. Jayco 19ft Duel Axel
Starcraft 19.61-6 (Standard) caravan valued at up to $49,210* (“Major
Prize”).
All Instant Win Prizes (excluding the Game) will be dispatched from the date of the
Second Chance Major Prize Draw. Instant prize winners should allow up to twentyeight (28) days from this date for their instant prize to be delivered.
*Total prize value of the car and caravan includes 1 year/12-month registration,
stamp duty and dealer delivery charges (which may vary from State to State).
Insurance, options, petrol and all other ancillary costs are the responsibility of the
winner. The Promoter may, in its absolute discretion, accommodate the winner’s
colour preference (excluding metallic options), subject to availability. The winner
must collect the prize from their nearest authorised Ford and Jayco dealership. If
the winner is, through any legal incapacity or otherwise, unable to register the car
or caravan in their own name, then the winner may assign the car or caravan to
another person (who consents to such assignment) with legal capacity for the
purpose of registration. The Promoter takes no responsibility for any such
arrangements between the winner and the assignee. The winner must provide the
Promoter with certified copies of all required documentation as required by the
Promoter before the car or caravan is awarded. It is a condition of accepting the
prize that the winner may be required to sign a legal release in a form to be
determined by the Promoter in its discretion.
Instant Win Prize Winner
Instant prize winners will be notified immediately on screen and by email. Instant
prize winners will have their names published on the Website from 22 January
Second Chance Major
8. The Second Chance Major Prize Draw will take place at Switch Marketing, 6
Hodgson Street, Kew VIC 3101 on 15 January 2021 at 2:00PM AEDT, in the
presence of an independent scrutineer. The Promoter may draw additional reserve
entries and record them in order in case an invalid entry or ineligible entrant is
drawn.
The first valid entry drawn from the Second Chance Major Prize Draw will win a
Second Chance Major Prize pack valued at $666.95. The prize pack includes:
• one (1) x Oztrail 8-Person Family Tent valued at $199
• one (1) x Weber Baby Q BBQ LP Q1000 (Black) valued at $339;
• one (1) x Retro 18 Litre Cooler valued at $39.95; and
• one (1) x Taupe Timber Market Umbrella (2.95m) valued at $89
Contingency Game The instant prize winner of the Game (“Participant”) must respond to the winner
notification (and validate their entry) no later than 12:00PM AEDST on 15 January
2021 in order to attend the Game. If the Participant cannot attend the Game, the
Participant may appoint a proxy over 18 years of age to play the Game on their
behalf provided the Participant gives the Promoter written, signed notice to that
effect before the start of the Game. If the Promoter has not been able to contact
the Participant before the start of the Game, a representative of the Promoter will
play the Game on the Participant’s behalf.
The Game will take place at the participating store where the Participant made the
Eligible Transaction at 11:00AM AEDST on 12 February 2021. In the event that
the participating store is unable to accommodate the Game for any reason, the
Game will take place at the Promoter’s office in the Participant’s nearest capital
city. All costs associated with attending the Game are the sole responsibility of the
Participant. In the event that travel is restricted in the Participant’s State/Territory
due to any COVID-19-related public health orders, the Participant may participate
in the Game via Zoom video call whereby they will select one (1) paint can from
each Group and a representative of the Promoter will select the paint can on their
behalf.
There will be a total of seventeen (17) paint cans divided into three (3) groups
(each a “Group”). Each paint can will be numbered 1 to 3 according to its Group.
Group 1 will consist of two (2) paint cans; Group 2 will consist of five (5) paint cans;
and Group 3 will consist of ten (10) paint cans. One (1) paint can from each Group
will contain an envelope with a promotional message representing the Major Prize.
The other paint cans in each Group will each contain an envelope with a
promotional message representing $5,000 (“Consolation Prize”). The
Participant/proxy/representative (“Attendee”) must choose only one (1) paint can
from each Group (for a total of three (3) paint cans) without touching, handling or
interfering in any way with any of the other paint cans on display. If each paint can
selected by the Attendee contains the promotional message representing the
Major Prize, then, subject to verification by the judges, the Participant will win the
Major Prize. If the Attendee selects a paint can containing a promotional message
representing a Consolation Prize, then the Major Prize will not be given away and,
subject to verification by the judges, the Participant will win $5,000.
9. The Participant’s odds of winning the Major Prize are 1 in 100. The odds of
winning the instant prize to be a Participant may be significantly higher than the
odds of the Participant winning the Major Prize and will depend upon the number
of entries received.
10. The Consolation Prize will be awarded in the form of a cheque.
Total Prize Pool Up to $108,669.20
Prize Notification
The Second Chance Major Prize winners will be notified by phone and email within
two business days of the draw and their name will be published on the Website
from 22 January 2021.
Instant Win Prize claim
11:59PM AEDST on 31 March 2021
Unclaimed Prize Draw
(Instant Win Prizes &
Prize)
A draw for any prizes that have been won but remain unclaimed will take place on
30 April 2021 at the same time and place as the original draw, subject to any
directions from a regulatory authority. Winners, if any, will be notified by phone and
email within two (2) business days of the draw and their names will be published
on the Website from 7 May 2021. For removal of doubt, in the event of an
unclaimed prize draw, the Game will still take place on 12 February 2021, however
a representative of the Promoter will play the Game on the Participant’s behalf,
and the drawn unclaimed prize draw winner will win the prize determined as a
result of the Game.
Entry limits Multiple entries permitted, subject to the following: (a) only one (1) entry permitted
per Eligible Transaction (regardless of how much in excess of $125 is spent in that
transaction); and (b) each entry must be submitted separately and in accordance
with entry requirements.
Additional terms and
11. Entrants must retain their original purchase receipt(s) for all entries as proof of
purchase. Failure to produce the proof of purchase for all entries when requested
may, in the absolute discretion of the Promoter, result in invalidation of ALL of an
entrant’s entries and forfeiture of any right to a prize. Purchase receipt(s) must
clearly specify the store of purchase and that the purchase was made during the
Promotion Period but prior to entry.
Permit Numbers NSW Authority No. TP/00158, ACT Permit No. TP20/01142, SA Licence No.
T20/1011
By entering your email address you agree to receive future emails from Press Start regarding the result of this competition and future announcements. You can unsubscribe at any time at the bottom of any email send out.
This competition is open to Australian residents only.
1. Winner will be drawn on Tuesday 5th January 2021 and prize can be collected in-store or sent out.
2. Competition is open Australian residents only.
3. Prize is not redeemable for cash, or credit.
4. This promotion is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, or associated with, Instagram or Facebook.
Simply answer this question for your chance to win*:
If you could take your party anywhere, tell us in 25 words or less which stop of the WSL Championship Tour you would go to and why?
Promotion Win 1 of 4 Trollstopia Packs
Promoter Nine Entertainment Co. Pty Ltd ABN 59 122 205 065 of 1 Denison Street, North
Promotional Period Start Date: 09/12/20 at 12pm AEDT
End Date: 15/12/20 at 11:59pm AEDT
Eligible entrants Permanent residents of Australia aged 18 years and over who are subscribed to the
Weekly Today Show Email Newsletter and who are not ineligible to enter the
Promotion under clause 2 of the Terms and Conditions (Entrants)
Entry Method 1. Click on the link located in the Weekly Today Show Newsletter
2. Enter your full name, contact number, email address, suburb and postcode
1 per Entrant during the Promotional Period.
Game of chance. Skill plays no part in determining the Winner.
The Winner will be drawn electronically by computerised random draw by the
Promoter at 1 Denison Street, North Sydney, NSW 2060 on 16/12/20 at 10am
AEDT. The Winner will be the first four (4) valid entries drawn. The Promoter
reserves the right to draw additional reserve entries, and record them in the order
drawn, in the event that an invalid entry is drawn or an Entrant drawn is ineligible.
Number of Winners 4
Winner Notification The Winner will be notified by email or telephone.
Prize/s Each winner will receive the following;
- 1 x Stan Gift Card $200
- 5 x Tiny Dancers $12.50
- 2 x Fashion Trolls $44
- Colour Poppin Poppies $49
- 3 x Hair Huggers $24
- 1 x Trolls 5 minute stories (book) $19.99
- 1 x Glow in the Dark Headphones $39
- 1 x Rock City Bobble $10
- 1 x Lonesome Flats Tour Pack $20
- Poppy Doll $29.99
- 2 x Mini Trolls World Tour Individual Characters $9
- 1 x Trolls DVD $24.95
- 1 x Tiny Dancers Friend Pack $13
- 3 x Friendship Bracelets $44.85
- 1 x Dancing Poppy’s $59
- 1 x Toddler Poppy’s $19
- 1 x Colour Poppin’ Poppy’s $49
Total Prize Pool AUD$2,669.12
Prize Supplier/s Stan
Winner Publication The winner will be published on https://9now.com.au/today/competitions on
Unclaimed Prize
The winner of the Unclaimed Prize will be notified by email or telephone.
The winner will be published on https://9now.com.au/today/competitions on
Wednesday 17 March 2021.
1. Your participation in this Competition constitutes your deemed acceptance of these Terms and Conditions.
2. Stone & Wood Brewing Co and Cape Byron Distillery reserve the right, at any time, to verify the validity of entries and to disqualify any entrant who submits an entry that tampers with the entry process or is not in accordance with these Terms and Conditions. Failure by the Promoter to enforce any of its rights at any stage does not constitute a waiver of those rights.
3. In order to constitute a valid entry into the Competition, entrants subscribe to Stone & Wood Brewing Co and Cape Byron Distillery by entering their email address and first name on the provided form.
4. Entry to the Competition is limited to one entry by email address.
5. Incomplete, indecipherable or illegible entries will be deemed invalid.
6. The Competition commences on Monday 30 November 2020 at 3pm ADST and closes Sunday 13 November 11:59pm ADST.
7. The winner will be picked at random by Cape Byron Distillery and the winner will receive 1x 700ml Pacific Moonshine + 16x 375ml Pacific Ales + 1x Pacific Moonshine Tee + 1x Pacific Ale Tee – valued at $239.99. Only those who have participated during the competition period are eligible for the prize.
8. The winner selection will take place at Cape Byron Distillery at 9.30am AEST on Monday 14th November. The Promoter’s office is located at 80 St Helena Road, McLeods Shoot, 2479, NSW.
9. The prize winner will be notified by email. The Promoter’s decision is final and conclusive. We will send the prize directly to the winner’s address.
10. If this Competition is interfered with in any way, or is not capable of being conducted as reasonably anticipated due to any reason beyond the reasonable control of the Promoter, the Promoter reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to the fullest extent permitted by law: (a) to disqualify any entrant; or (b) to modify, suspend, terminate or cancel the Competition, as appropriate.
11. The prize will be deemed unclaimed if it is not collected as and when directed by the Promoter.
12. The use of any automated entry software, or any other mechanical or electronic means that allows an entrant to automatically enter the Competition repeatedly, is prohibited and will render all entries submitted by that entrant invalid.
(a) any technical difficulties or equipment malfunction (whether or not under the Promoter’s control);
(b) any theft, unauthorised access or third party interference;
(c) any entry, prize, or claim for a prize that is late, lost, altered, damaged or misdirected (whether before or after receipt by the Promoter) due to any reason beyond the reasonable control of the Promoter;
(d) any variation in prize value to that stated in these Terms and Conditions;
(e) any tax liability (including FBT) incurred by a winner or entrant; and
(f) use of the prize.
13. Except for any liability that cannot be excluded by law, the Promoter (including its officers, employees and agents) excludes all liability (including negligence) for any personal injury or any loss or damage (including loss of opportunity) whether direct, indirect, special or consequential, arising in any way out of the Competition, including, but not limited to the following:
14. Employees of the Promoter are not eligible to enter this Competition.
15. You must be over the age of 18 to enter and reside in Australia.
The Promoter is iPantry TRADING PTY LTD ACN 640 742 990 (“iPantry”) of 99 Proximity Drive, Sunshine West, VIC 3020. Telephone number 03 8657 0539.
Information on how to enter and the prize forms part of the terms of entry. Entry into the competition is deemed acceptance of these terms and conditions.
Who can enter?
Entry is open to existing and new customers who live in metropolitan Melbourne, Geelong Region and Mornington Peninsula (certain suburb restrictions apply). See eligible postcodes below:
Metropolitan Melbourne: 3000, 3001, 3002, 3003, 3004, 3005, 3006, 3008, 3010, 3011, 3012, 3013, 3015, 3016, 3018, 3019, 3020, 3021, 3022, 3023, 3024, 3025, 3026, 3027, 3028, 3029, 3030, 3031, 3032, 3033, 3034, 3036, 3037, 3038, 3039, 3040, 3041, 3042, 3043, 3044, 3045, 3046, 3047, 3048, 3049, 3050, 3051, 3052, 3053, 3054, 3055, 3056, 3057, 3058, 3059, 3060, 3061, 3062, 3063, 3064, 3065, 3066, 3067, 3068, 3070, 3071, 3072, 3073, 3074, 3075, 3076, 3078, 3079, 3081, 3082, 3083, 3084, 3085, 3086, 3087, 3088, 3089, 3090, 3091, 3093, 3094, 3095, 3096, 3097, 3099, 3101, 3102, 3103, 3104, 3105, 3106, 3107, 3108, 3109, 3111, 3113, 3114, 3115, 3116, 3121, 3122, 3123, 3124, 3125, 3126, 3127, 3128, 3129, 3130, 3131, 3132, 3133, 3134, 3135, 3136, 3137, 3138, 3139, 3140, 3141, 3142, 3143, 3144, 3145, 3146, 3147, 3148, 3149, 3150, 3151, 3152, 3153, 3154, 3155, 3156, 3158, 3159, 3160, 3161, 3162, 3163, 3165, 3166, 3167, 3168, 3169, 3170, 3171, 3172, 3173, 3174, 3175, 3177, 3178, 3179, 3180, 3181, 3182, 3183, 3184, 3185, 3186, 3187, 3188, 3189, 3190, 3191, 3192, 3193, 3194, 3195, 3196, 3197, 3198, 3199, 3200, 3201, 3202, 3204, 3205, 3206, 3207, 3211, 3212, 3222, 3223, 3225, 3335, 3336, 3337, 3338, 3340, 3427, 3428, 3429, 3430, 3431, 3432, 3433, 3434, 3437, 3438, 3440, 3441, 3750, 3751, 3752, 3753, 3754, 3755, 3756, 3757, 3758, 3759, 3760, 3761, 3762, 3763, 3765, 3766, 3767, 3770, 3775, 3777, 3781, 3782, 3783, 3785, 3786, 3787, 3788, 3789, 3791, 3792, 3793, 3795, 3796, 3800, 3802, 3803, 3804, 3805, 3806, 3807, 3808, 3809, 3810, 3910, 3911, 3912, 3913, 3915, 3930, 3931, 3933, 3934, 3936, 3938, 3975, 3976, 3977, 3978, 3980
Geelong Region: 3213, 3214, 3215, 3216, 3217, 3218, 3219, 3220, 3221, 3224, 3226, 3227, 3228, 3332
Mornington Peninsula 3916, 3918, 3919, 3920, 3926, 3927, 3928, 3929, 3937, 3939, 3940, 3941, 3942, 3943, 3944
Entrants must be 18 years of age or older as at the date of entry to be eligible to enter the competition.
The Promoter reserves the right to request winners to provide proof of identity, proof of residency at the nominated prize delivery address and/or proof of entry validity to claim the prize. Proof of identification, residency and entry considered suitable for verification is at the discretion of the Promoter. If a winner cannot provide suitable proof, the winner will forfeit the prize in whole and no substitute will be offered.
The competition commences on December 1, 2020, at 7:00 am AEDT and concludes on December 12, 2020, at 11:59 pm AEDT. Entries must be received by the Promoter prior to the competition close date and time.
The time of entry will in each case be the time the online entry is received by the Promoter’s database, not at the time of transmission by the entrant.
The Promoter accepts no responsibility for any late or lost entries due to technical disruptions, network congestion or for any other reason.
Entrants may enter the competition by:
Going to ipantry.com.au/pages/win-a-years-worth-of-food and registering their details including First Name, Last Name, Contact Number, Email and Postcode to complete their entry.
Entrants do not have to purchase anything from the Promoter before entering the competition.
Entrants are required to take full responsibility for the content of their entry and for ensuring that their entry complies with these Conditions of Entry. If an entry cannot be verified to the Promoter’s satisfaction, the entry will be deemed invalid. The Promoter may, in its absolute discretion, delete, remove or take-down an entrant’s entry.
Any entry that is made on behalf of an entrant by a third party will be invalid unless the entrant requires the assistance of a third party to enter due to a disability.
The Promoter reserves the right to disqualify any entrant who tampers with the entry process, who submits an entry that is not in accordance with these Terms & Conditions of Entry or who has, in the opinion of Promoter, engaged in conduct in entering the Promotion which is fraudulent, misleading, deceptive or generally damaging to the goodwill or reputation of the Promotion and/or Promoter. This includes, but not limited, to entrants and households using multiple email addresses and postal addresses.
The Promoter permits one entry per person.
All entries become the property of the Promoter and are automatically opted-in to receive communications from iPantry. Form details will be entered into a database and the Promoter may use the entrant’s names and email addresses for future promotional and marketing purposes without notice. By opting-in, entrants confirm that they allow their details to be used for this purpose. If entrants no longer consent to their details being used for future marketing purposes, the entrant should contact the Promoter on their details set out below. Any request to update, modify or delete the entrant’s details should be directed to the Promoter.
To request access to or to update personal information the Promoter holds about them, entrants can contact the office of the Promoter on 03 8657 0539 or at info@ipantry.com.au.
Draw and Notification of winner
The winner will be the first valid entry submitted in accordance with these Terms & Conditions that are drawn by the Promoter. All entrants will be exported to an excel spreadsheet and the winner selected using the random sort function at 10 am AEDT on December 14, 2020, at 99 Proximity Drive, Sunshine West, VIC 3020.
The Promoter’s decision is final, and the Promoter will not enter into correspondence regarding the competition result or any other decisions the Promoter makes in connection with the Promotion.
The winner will be notified in writing via email within two days of the draw. The prize winner will be published on ipantry.com.au/pages/win-a-years-worth-of-food by December 16, 2020, for a period of at least 28 days.
The Promoter will provide the winner with his or her prize within 28 days of drawing it.
Prizes will be awarded to the person named in the entry. However, in a dispute, will be awarded to the account holder of the entry mechanism used to submit their entry (i.e., mobile phone account holder or land line account holder).
Should an entrant’s contact details change during the promotional period, it is the entrant's responsibility to notify the Promoter. A request to access or modify any information provided in an entry should be directed to the Promoter.
Subject to State Regulation, an unclaimed prize draw will take place at 99 Proximity Drive, Sunshine West, VIC 3020 on March 15, 2021, at 10.00 am AEDT. The winner of the unclaimed prize draw will be notified by email within two days of that draw. The winner of the prize will be published on ipantry.com.au/pages/win-a-years-worth-of-food within 14 days of the draw.
The prize winner will receive 12 monthly vouchers to the value of $500 each from the Promoter that will include a unique code and can only be used on products listed on the Promoter’s website.
The winner will receive the first $500 online gift voucher within 28 days of being notified via email and each subsequent voucher will be issued every month for 12 months.
The prize cannot be transferred, exchanged, or redeemed for cash and each voucher must be redeemed within 30 days of the date received.
It is a condition of accepting the prize that the winner must comply with all the conditions of use of the prize.
All entrants agree that if they win the prize, they will not sell or otherwise provide their story and/or photographs to any media or other organisation, including the internet. Photographs will be allowed only at the discretion of the Promoter.
In the event a winner does not use the total prize amount by the time specified, then the remaining amount will be forfeited by the winner and cash will not be awarded in lieu of the prize.
Online gift vouchers are subject to the terms and conditions imposed by the Promoter.
Further Terms and Conditions
Subject to complying with all relevant State and Territory legislation, the Promoter reserves the right to amend, cancel or suspend this competition if an event beyond the control of the Promoter corrupts or affect the administration security, fairness, integrity or proper conduct of the competition. The Promoter will disqualify any individual who has tampered with the entry process or any other aspect of this competition.
If for any reason this competition is not capable of running as planned, including due to infection by computer virus, bugs, tampering, unauthorised intervention, fraud, technical failures or any causes beyond the control of the Promoter, which corrupt or affect the administration, security, fairness or integrity or proper conduct of this promotion, the Promoter reserves the right in its sole discretion to disqualify any individual who tampers with the entry process, take any action that may be available, and to cancel, terminate, modify or suspend the competition, subject to any direction given under State Regulation.
If an entrant uses any form of software or third-party application to enter multiple times (including scripting software), organises for a third party to enter on their behalf in breach of these terms and conditions or enters using incorrect contact details, his or her entry will be deemed invalid. If such an entrant wins a prize, the entrant must immediately return the prize to the Promoter. The Promoter has sole discretion to determine whether an entrant has breached this clause. The Promoter reserves the right to request whatever documentation it deems necessary to confirm whether an entrant has breached this clause. Entrants must provide whatever documents the Promoter requires upon request
The Promoter reserves the right to redraw the prize if an entrant who claims to be a prize winner is unable to satisfy these terms and conditions.
The Promoter will keep associated records including finances and prize details for three years after the competition is complete.
Copyright, Statutory guarantees, Waiver and liability
In consideration for the Promoter awarding the prize to the winner, the winner hereby permits his/ her submission to appear in connection with the Promoter’s marketing or external media, and the winner will not be entitled to any fee for such use.
The Promoter values the entrants’ trust and are committed to protecting their privacy. For more details, read the Privacy Policy.
1. By participating in the Broadsheet Media x Aperol Spritz (Promotion), each participant fully and
unconditionally agrees and acknowledges that these terms and conditions are binding.
2. The promoter is Broadsheet, trading as Broadsheet Media Pty Ltd, ABN 20 131 593 201 of Level 1, 231
Smith Street, Fitzroy, VIC 3065 (Promoter).
3. The Promotion commences at 16:00 AEDT/AEST) on Friday 27 November 2020 and closes at
11:59 (AEDT/AEST) on Thursday 31 December 2020 (Promotion Period).
4. Entry is open to Australian residents only who are over 18 year of age at the time of the Promotion.
5. To enter this Promotion you must go to https://broadsheet2.typeform.com/to/AbDS5EGD and enter your
details including first name, last name email address and postcode.
6. Multiple entries are not permitted.
7. Entrants can only enter in their own name. Entering under a false name/s may invalidate all entries.
Multiple entries under different names and/or different email addresses may also invalidate all entries at
the Promoter’s discretion. The use of automatic entry software, mechanical or electronic devices that
allows an individual to automatically enter the competition is prohibited and may render all entries
submitted by that individual invalid.
8. Employees of the Promoter, immediate family members of any employee, and any associated company or
agency of the Promoter are not eligible to enter.
9. Entrants may be required to provide proof of identity, proof of age and proof of residency to verify their
entry (Proof of Identity). Identification considered suitable for verification is at the Promoter’s discretion.
If an entrant/winner fails to provide Proof of Identity by the time and date stipulated by the Promoter, their
entry/prize claim will be deemed invalid at the Promoter’s discretion.
10. Entries not completed in accordance with these terms and conditions are void. Entries will be deemed void
if stolen, forged, mutilated or tampered with in any way.
DRAW AND PRIZES
11. The prize draw will take place at Level 1, 231 Smith St Fitzroy, VIC 3065 at 10:00 (AEDT/AEST) on
Tuesday 12 January 2021.
12. The first complete, eligible entry drawn will win the prize as described below. The Promoter will draw three
(3) reserve entries and record them (in order drawn) in case an invalid entry or ineligible entrant is drawn
as a winner or the winner is unable or unwilling to accept the prize.
13. The prize is: One (1) winner will receive an Aperol Spritz-Inspired occasion at their home for up to ten (10)
people). The prize includes: a two hour bar package (valued at $300) including bump in and bump out;
catering and Aperol stock by a local city supplier (valued at $1,000). The suppliers for each state are: North
Bondi Fish (NSW), Baia Di Vino (VIC), Osteria Oggi (SA), Il Lido Canteen (WA) and Julius Pizzeria (QLD).
The prize also includes Aperol Spritz merchandise (valued at $500) and an Ultimate Ear Boom 3 Portable
Bluetooth Speaker ($199 RRP).
14. The total prize pool is valued at up to $2,200 AUD (RRP inc. GST.)
15. The winner of this promotion will be notified via email to their nominated email address within two business
days of the draw. In this email the winner will be sent instructions regarding how to verify their entry
(including providing Proof of Identity) and how to redeem their prize.
16. The prize is non-transferable, non-refundable, and cannot be sold or exchanged for cash.
17. Once the provisional prize winner is deemed by the Promoter to have complied with these terms and
conditions of entry, the Promoter will deliver the relevant prize within 28 days of the winner’s entry being
verified and accepted.
18. The winner’s name will be published on the Website on or before Wednesday 13 January 2021.
19. The prize must be claimed by 10:00 on Tuesday 13 April 2021 (AEDT/AEST). If the prize is not claimed by
this time, the Promoter will conduct an unclaimed prize draw at 10:00 (AEDT/AEST) on Wednesday 14
April 2021 at the same place as the original draw. The winner of the unclaimed prize draw (if any) will be
contacted by email within two business days of the unclaimed This point must be covered in the T&Cs for
any promotion being run in NSW regardless of prize value.
20. Where there is no valid prize winner, or the winner does not claim the Prize by the Prize Claim Date, the
Promoter will publish this on the Website on or after the Prize Claim Date.
21. It is a condition of accepting a prize that the winner agrees to participate in and cooperate with all
reasonable media editorial requests, including but not limited to, being interviewed, photographed and
filmed and the winner grants the Promoter a perpetual, non-exclusive licence (if applicable) to use, and
continuously releases and indemnifies the Promoter from and against any use of, such footage and
photographs in all media worldwide, and the winner will not be entitled to any fee for such use. The
inclusion of any such footage or photographs (including but not limited to creative control of the feature) will
remain with the Promoter at all times.
22. The Promoter reserves the right to alter the rules of the competition at any time, subject to regulatory
23. If for any reason any aspect of this Promotion does not run or is not capable of running as planned,
including by reason of infection by computer virus, network failure, bugs, tampering, unauthorised
intervention, fraud, technical failures or any cause beyond the reasonable control of the Promoter which
corrupts or affects the administration, security, fairness, integrity or proper conduct of this Promotion, the
Promoter may in its sole discretion cancel, terminate, modify or suspend the Promotion, or invalidate any
affected entries, subject to applicable law.
24. The Promoter accepts no responsibility for any problems or technical malfunction of any communication
network or for any late, lost, incomplete, incorrectly submitted, delayed, illegible, corrupted or misdirected
entries, claims or correspondence whether due to error, omission, alteration, tampering, deletion, theft,
destruction, transmission interruption, communications failure or otherwise. The Promoter has no control
over telephone communications, networks or lines and accepts no responsibility for any problems
associated with them, whether due to traffic congestion, technical malfunction or otherwise. The Promoter
is not liable for any consequences of user error including (without limitation) any costs incurred.
25. The Promoter may, at its sole discretion, declare any or all entries made by an entrant invalid, and prohibit
further participation by an entrant in this Promotion, if the entrant:
a. fails to verify their personal details and/or eligibility to enter the Promotion to the Promoter's
satisfaction;
b. tampers with or benefits from any tampering with the entry process or the operation of the
Promotion;
c. submits an entry which in the Promoter's opinion is not in accordance with these Conditions of
Entry;
d. acts in a disruptive manner or with the intent to annoy, abuse, threaten or harass any other
person; or
e. engages in conduct in entering the Promotion which in the Promoter’s opinion is fraudulent,
misleading, deceptive or generally damaging to the goodwill or reputation of the Promotion or
Promoter. This includes where entrants use multiple names or addresses to register multiple
26. The Promoter and associated agencies and companies shall not be liable for any loss or damage
whatsoever which is suffered (including but not limited to indirect or consequential loss) or for any personal
injury suffered or sustained in connection with any prize/s except for any liability which cannot be excluded
by law.
27. The Promoter accepts no responsibility for any tax implications that may arise from the prize winnings.
Independent financial advice should be sought. Where the operation of this Promotion results in, for GST
purposes, supplies being made for non-monetary consideration, entrants agree to follow the Australian
Taxation Office’s stated view that where the parties are at arm’s length, goods and services exchanged are
of equal GST inclusive market values.
28. Any disputes relating to the conduct of the promotion or the claiming of a prize are to be resolved by the
Promoter in their absolute and sole discretion and subject to applicable law or direction of a relevant
authority.
29. The Promoter’s decisions in relation to the Promotion are final and no correspondence will be entered into.
30. The details contained in your entry are protected by security safeguards detailed in the Promoter’s Privacy
Policy, which is available at http://www.broadsheet.com.au/melbourne/info/privacy-policy
31. Your privacy is important to us. Your information is collected by Broadsheet Media Pty Ltd (Broadsheet)
and will be used and held in accordance with our Privacy Policy.Information you provide will be used for
the purpose of conducting this promotion, sending you our newsletter, keeping in touch with you about
news and information. Broadsheet may disclose your information to companies and agencies in connection
with this promotion or as set out in the Privacy Policy. If you consent, we may also provide your information
to third party organisations for marketing purposes. You may remain anonymous. If you do not provide
information, we may not be able to provide you with certain information, products or services. To access or
change your information, please contact us using the details set out in our Privacy Policy.
32. You can contact the Promoter’s Privacy Officer if you would like the details of the personal information that
the Promoter may hold about you or if you would like to be corrected. Our Privacy Officer’s contact details
are:
Level 1, 231 Smith St
33. By entering this competition, you are subscribing to the Broadsheet newsletter database.
34. For the purposes of this promotion, we will provide the information we collect to Campari who may then
also contact you for marketing purposes. You will be able to opt-out of future contact from Campari if you
hear from them. You may remain anonymous, however if you do not provide the information requested by
us, we may not be able to provide you with certain information, products or services.
1.The entry period for the prize draw will commence at 11am Australian Eastern Daylight Time (“AEDT”) on Friday 4 December and will close at 5pm AEDT on Thursday 10 December (“Closing Date”). Entries submitted after the Closing Date will not be valid.
2. Entrants must be at least 18 years of age to participate and an Australian resident. The prize draw is not open to employees, family members and/or contractors of Antagonist Spirits. This trade promotion is only open to NT and NSW residents.
3. By entering the prize draw, entrants agree to accept and be bound by these terms and conditions (“Terms and Conditions”), and by the decisions of Antagonist Spirits which are final in all matters relating to the promotion. No correspondence will be entered into.
4. Entry into the prize draw is free. Entrants must complete the entry form and opt-in to receive emails from Antagonist Spirits and agree to the official rules to enter the promotion. The winner will be notified by email and by social media.
5. Incomplete entries will be deemed invalid.
6. Antagonist Spirits reserves the right to seek verification of eligibility to enter and receive a prize under these Terms and Conditions. Antagonist Spirits reserves the right to disqualify any entrant who submits an entry that is not in accordance with these Terms and Conditions or who tampers with the entry process. Errors and omissions may be accepted at the Promoter’s sole and unfettered discretion.
7. Only one entry per email to the prize draw per person is allowed. The use of any automated entry software or any other mechanical or electronic means that allows an entrant to automatically enter repeatedly is prohibited and will render all entries submitted by that entrant invalid.
8. All entries become the property of Antagonist Spirits.
9. The total value of the prize will be up to the value of A$110. Prize has been pre-allocated. This is a game of chance and a prize will be awarded to the eligible entrant whose entry is randomly selected on Woobox marketing platform.
10. The prize consists of 1x Antagonist Spirits G&Tour pack.
11. The winner will be announced on Antagonist Spirits’ Facebook page on Friday 11 December.
12. There is no cash or credit alternative to the prize.
13. Winner will be notified by email and social media to make necessary arrangements for the winner to claim the prize.
14. The winner must be 18 years or older and will be required to show a form of valid photographic ID when claiming the prize.
15. Prizes are non-transferable, not for re-sale, non-refundable, and non-changeable.
16. The prize must be taken and used by January 31, 2021. In the event a winner does not take the prize by the time stipulated, the entire prize will be forfeited by the winner and cash will not be awarded in lieu of the prize.
17. If a winner is untraceable within 30 days after Antagonist Spirits’ reasonable efforts, Antagonist Spirits will conduct a “second chance draw” for any unclaimed or outstanding prize. The second chance draw will be open to all eligible entrants who were not selected as winners before the Closing Date. The winner of the second chance draw will be notified in accordance with the notification procedure in Clause 13.
18. By entering the prize draw, each entrant consents to the collection of his/her personal data for the purposes of managing and administering the prize draw, and for future marketing and promotional purposes, in accordance with Antagonist Spirits’ Privacy Policy. Entrants can access or request the amendment of their personal data at any time by contacting Customer Services.
19. Antagonist Spirits may use a winner’s name, town of residence and likeness for the purpose of announcing the winners without the need for any additional payment or permission.
20. No responsibility is accepted by Antagonist Spirits for matters beyond its reasonable control, and no refund or replacement prize will apply for such matters. Antagonist Spirits accepts no responsibility for any incomplete or inaccurate entries received or for system errors or other issues that may result in disruption to, lost, delayed or not received entries or winner notifications.
21. Antagonist Spirits reserves the right to alter or amend these Terms and Conditions, and conditions of operation of the promotion, subject to the approval of the gaming authorities in the states where required.
22. Failure by Antagonist Spirits to enforce its rights at any stage does not constitute a waiver of those rights.
23. Except for any liability that cannot by law be excluded, Antagonist Spirits (including its respective officers, employees and agents) is not responsible for and excludes all liability (including negligence), for any personal injury; or any loss or damage (including loss of opportunity); whether direct, indirect, special or consequential, arising in any way out of:
a. any technical difficulties or equipment malfunction (whether or not under Antagonist Spirits control);
b. any theft, unauthorised access or third party interference;
c. any entry or prize claim that is late, lost, altered, damaged or misdirected
(whether or not after their receipt by Antagonist Spirits) due to any reason beyond the reasonable control of Antagonist Spirits;
d. any variation in prize value to that stated in these Terms and Conditions;
e. any tax liability incurred by the winner or any entrant; or
f. the use of the prize.
25. This prize draw shall be governed and construed by Australian law and is run by Antagonist Spirits (ABN: 36 635 957 765 )
1. STANDARD TERMS
1.1 Information on how to enter forms part of the terms of entry.
2. WHO CAN ENTER?
2.1 Subject to clause 2.2, entry is open to all residents of Australia aged 18 years and older, where the Channel
Seven and affiliate broadcasting signals are received, and are subscribers of the Sunrise Family Newsletter.
2.2 Employees and their immediate families of Seven Network (Operations) Limited, Ansible Pty Ltd, Re d Havas
and their associated agencies and companies are not eligible to enter.
3. HOW TO ENTER
3.1 The competition commences on Tuesday8 December 2020 at 10.00am (AEST) and c onclude s on Friday 11
December 2020 at 10.00am (AEST) (“the Competition Period”).
3.2 In order to enter, Sunrise Family newsletter subscribers must click on the ‘Win an AncestryDNA kit’ tile in the
newsletter. Viewers will be directed to the designated competition page on the Sunrise website
(www.sunrise.com.au) and register their full name, address (including postcode), a valid email addre ss and
telephone number, along with the code word as provided in the newsletter.
3.3 Entries must be received by Friday 11December2020 at 10.00am (AEST).
3.4 Entries are limited to one entry per person, per phone number. Multiple entries will not be accepted.
3.5 Entry details remain the property of the Promoter and will not be returned to the entrant. The winners agree
to grant the Promoter a perpetual and non-exclusive licence to use their entries in all media worldwide and
the winners will not be entitled to any fee for such use.
4.1 There will be four (4)winners of the Promotion who will receive:
• 1 x Ancestry DNA kit valued at $129
TOTAL PRIZE VALE: $516.00AUD
Prize value is correct as at the date of printing. Winners arenot entitled to receive any money from any party
if there is a difference between the maximum prize value and the actual prize value at the time of the draw.
All prize values are in Australian Dollars.
4.2 This prize has no official resale value and may not be authentic if purchased from a third party. Prizes may
not be resold, offered for resale, used for advertising, promoting or other commercial purposes without the
written consent of The Seven Network.
4.3 The prize cannot be altered in any way, is not transferable and cannot be redeemed for cash.
4.4 The winner will be required to sign-up to the Ancestry.com.au platform in order to active the DNA kit.
4.5 In participating in the prizes, the winners(and travelling companion if applicable)agree to participate and cooperate as required in all editorial activities relating to the Competition, including but not limite d to be ing
interviewed and photographed. The winners grant the promoter a perpetual and non-exclusive licence to use
Sunrise Family Newsletter | Ancestry.com.au Promotion 2 / 3
such footage and photographs in all media worldwide and the winners will not be entitled to any fee for such
4.6 If any prize (or part of any prize) is unavailable, the Promoter, in its discretion, reserves the right to substitute
the prize (or that part of the prize) with a prize of equal value and/or specification, subje ct to any writte n
directions from a regulatory authority.
4.7 Winners should seek independent financial advice about any tax implications that may arise from the prize
winning.
4.8 It is a condition of accepting the prize that the winner(s) (and any companions) may be required to sign a
legal release in a form determined by the Promoter in its absolute discretion.
4.9 Full details of prizes can be obtained by telephoning the Seven Network in each state on Sydney 02 8777
7777; Melbourne 03 9697 7777; Adelaide 08 8342 7777; Brisbane 07 3369 7777; Perth 08 9344 0777 or at
www.sunrise.com.au.
5. HOW TO WIN
5.1 There will be four (4)winners of the Competition. Each entrant who has entered the Competition over the
Competition Period and registered all details in accordance with clause 3 (“Qualifying Entrant”) will be
entered into the draw. The major prize draw will take place at Ansible Pty Ltd, Level 3, 100 Chalmers Street,
Surry Hills NSW 2010 on Friday 11 December2020 at 11.00am (AEST).
5.2 Winner will be notified by email or by phone by Monday 14 December2020.
5.3 If required, an unclaimed prize draw will be held on Friday 12 March2021 at 10.00am (AEST) at Ansible Pty
Ltd, Level 3, 100 Chalmers Street, Surry Hills NSW 2010. The Winner will be notified by email or by phone by
Monday 15 March2021.
5.4 The Promoter’s decision is final and the Promoter will not enter into correspondence regarding the result.
5.5 It is a condition of accepting the prize that the winners must comply with all the conditions of use of the prize
and prize supplier’s requirements.
6. NO LIABILITY
6.1 The Seven Network (Operations) Ltd & affiliates, Ansible Pty Ltd, Red Havas and their associated agencies and
companies associated with this promotion, will take no responsibility for prizes damaged or lost in transit, or
late, lost or misdirected mail.
6.2 If for any reason this promotion is not capable of running as planned, including due to infection by compute r
virus, bugs, tampering, unauthorised intervention, fraud, technical failures or any other causes be yond the
control of the Promoter, which corrupt or affect the administration security, fairness or integrity or prope r
conduct of this promotion, the promoter reserves the right in its sole discretion to disqualify any individual
who tampers with the entry process, subject to state legislation.
6.3 In the case of the intervention of any outside agent or event which naturally changes the result or prevents
or hinders it's determination, including but not limited to vandalism, power failures, tempests, natural
disasters, acts of God, civil unrest, strikes; the Promoter may in its absolute discretion cancel the e vent and
recommence it from the start on the same conditions, subject to state legislation.
6.4 In the event that for any reason whatsoever a winner does not take an element of the prize at the time
stipulated by the Promoter then that element of the prize will be forfeited by the winner and cash will not be
awarded in lieu of that element of the Prize.
6.5 The Seven Network (Operations) Ltd & affiliates, Ansible Pty Ltd, Red Havas and their associated employee s,
agencies and companies associated with this promotion will not be liable for any misadventure , ac cident,
injury, loss or claim, damages, costs and expenses suffered, sustained or incurred (including but not limited to
indirect or consequential) as a result of, or arising out of, or in any way connected with this promotion and/or
its prizes that may occur:
a) during the draw;
b) in the participation in any prize;
c) as a consequence of late, lost or misdirected mail;
d) due to the broadcast of any program relating to the competition or the publication of any mate rial,
including any statements made by any compere, staff member, journalist, other entrants or any
other person;
e) due to circumstances outside the promoter’s reasonable control.
6.6 The Promoter reserves the right to reasonably amend or vary these terms and conditions at its sole
discretion, orally or in writing, for the purpose of Seven’s programming, scheduling or production
requirements, subject to State legislation.
7. PROMOTER’S DETAILS
7.1 The Promoter is Seven Network (Operations) Limited (ABN 65 052 845 262) of Level 2, 38-42 Pirrama Road,
Pyrmont, NSW 2009.
7.2 The Sponsor is Red Havas(ABN 32 003 435 470) of 121 Harrington Street, The Rocks, Sydney NSW 2000.
7.3 Entry details remain the property of the Promoter. Seven Network (Operations) Limited (ABN 65 052 845
262) and its related entities (“Seven”), is collecting your personal information for the purpose of conducting
and promoting this Competition, including for the purpose of identifying and notifying winners and
understanding our audiences. Seven will otherwise handle your personal information in ac c ordance with
Seven’s Privacy Policy which is available on our website at http://www.sevenwestme dia. c om.au/privac ypolicies (and which contains information regarding how you can access your personal information, correct it
and/ or make a complaint about our handling of your personal information). By providing your personal
information below, you agree to the terms of the Privacy Policy. Without limiting the foregoing, Se ven may
disclose the entrant’s personal information to its related entities, business partne rs and e xte rnal se rvice
providers for research and profiling purposes as well as other purposes reasonably related to the e ntrant’s
relationship with Seven. In addition, by entering this competition, you consent to Seven using your personal
information for the purpose of Seven and its related entities sending you information regarding programs,
products and services available through them and/ or through their business partners, and to Se ven from
time to time sharing your personal information with carefully selected business partners for the purpose of
them sending you such information directly. We will always provide you with the ability to opt out of those
communications. www.sevenwestmedia.com.au
7.4 NSW permit number: LTPM/19/05197, ACT permit number: TP 19/04877
2.2 Employees and their immediate families of Seven Network (Operations) Limited, Ansible Pty Ltd, Young Living
Essential Oils Australia and their associated agencies and companies are not eligible to enter.
3.2 In order to enter, Sunrise Family newsletter subscribers must click on the ‘Win a Young Living Lustre Artisan
Diffuser set’ tile in the newsletter. Viewers will be directed to the designated competition page on the
Sunrise website (www.sunrise.com.au) and register their full name, address (including postcode ), a valid
email address and telephone number, along with the code word as provided in the newsletter.
4.1 There will be two (2) winners of the Promotion who will receive:
• 1 x Young Living Lustre Artisan Diffuser
• 1 x Young Living Citrus fresh essential oil
• 1 x Young Living Peppermint essential oil
TOTAL PRIZE VALE: $332.60 AUD
if there is a difference between the maximum prize value and the actual prize value at the time of the draw .
Sunrise Family Newsletter | Young Living Promotion 2 / 3
5.1 There will be two (2) winners of the Competition. Each entrant who has entered the Competition over the
6.1 The Seven Network (Operations) Ltd & affiliates, Ansible Pty Ltd, Young Living Essential Oils Australia and
their associated agencies and companies associated with this promotion, will take no responsibility for prizes
damaged or lost in transit, or late, lost or misdirected mail.
their associated employees, agencies and companies associated with this promotion will not be liable for any
misadventure, accident, injury, loss or claim, damages, costs and expenses suffered, sustained or inc urre d
(including but not limited to indirect or consequential) as a result of, or arising out of, or in any way
connected with this promotion and/or its prizes that may occur:
7.2 The Sponsor is Young Living Essential Oils Australia (ABN 94 085 543 979) of Building B, Level 3/3 Columbia Ct,
Baulkham Hills, NSW 2153.
Seven’s Privacy Policy which is available on our website at http://www.sevenwestme dia.c om.au/privac ypolicies (and which contains information regarding how you can access your personal information, correct it
2.2 Employees and their immediate families of Seven Network (Operations) Limited, Ansible Pty L td , The Daily
Edited and their associated agencies and companies are not eligible to enter.
3.2 In order to enter, Sunrise Family newsletter subscribers must click on the ‘Win 1 of 5 tde $100 vouchers’ tile
in the newsletter. Viewers will be directed to the designated competition page on the Sunrise website
4.1 There will be five (5) winners of the Promotion who will receive:
• 1 x $100 The Daily Edited (tde) voucher
4.4 Voucher is redeemable in store or online. Orders placed online with standard delivery must be placed by 14th
December 2020 to ensure delivery in time for Christmas. Orders placed online with express delivery must be
placed by 16th December 2020 to ensure delivery in time for Christmas.
Sunrise Family Newsletter | TDE Promotion 2 / 3
5.1 There will be five (5) winners of the Competition. Each entrant who has entered the Compe tition over the
6.1 The Seven Network (Operations) Ltd & affiliates, Ansible Pty Ltd, The Daily Edited and their associated
agencies and companies associated with this promotion, will take no responsibility for prizes damaged or lost
in transit, or late, lost or misdirected mail.
employees, agencies and companies associated with this promotion will not be liable for any misadventure,
accident, injury, loss or claim, damages, costs and expenses suffered, sustained or incurred (including but not
limited to indirect or consequential) as a result of, or arising out of, or in any way connected with this
promotion and/or its prizes that may occur:
7.2 The Sponsor is The Daily Edited (ABN 14 608 621 263) of 24-26 Bowden Street, Alexandria, NSW 2015.
The competition is open World Wide and the pool of 12 prizes will be drawn daily at 10:00am AEST (Australian Eastern Standard Time).
The winner/s entry will only be valid if all steps are properly completed.
The value of BTC awarded is realised at time of purchase and capped to the value of $25,000AUD.
Swyftx complies with all consumer protection and privacy laws, such as the Australian Consumer Law and the Privacy Act.
This promotion is free to enter, and is being run for the purposes of promoting Swyftx Australia with an ABN of 72 623 556 730.
To be eligible, you must meet the 'Promotion Entry Points' noted above. Prizes may take longer to be delivered and/or sent.
The winner/s will be determined by randomized electronic draw.
The winner/s will be contacted by Swyftx through their email and/ Swyftx account.
The winner must claim their prize within 3 months or there will be a re-draw/prize will be forfeited.
The winner will be contacted via email. The winner will be randomly drawn within sevens days of the end date. If the winner fails to claim their prize within 7 days of the end date, the prize will be forfeited and a re-draw will take place the following day. Centre Com reserves the right to withdraw the promotion at any given time. For more information, contact the Centre Com Marketing Team.
1. Information on how to enter and prizes form part of these terms and conditions. Entry into this
Competition is deemed to be acceptance of these terms and conditions. These terms and conditions are
final and legally binding.
2. The NSW Road Trips ("the Competition ") is open to residents of Australia, who are 21 years of age
or older as of the beginning of the Competition Period, hold a full valid Australian or New Zealand
driver’s license and who are not an employee of or domiciled with an employee of the Promoter or any
of its affiliated companies. Proof of identity may be required of the winner.
3. This Competition commences on 30 November 2020 at 11.00am AEDT and ends on 23 December
2020 11:59pm AEDT ("Competition Period").
4. To enter this Competition, entrants must complete the entry form at
Tesla.com/en_AU/campaign/nswroadtrips during the Competition Period. Only one entry
is permitted per person. No responsibility is accepted for any entries that are incomplete,
late, lost, misdirected or not received by the Promoter within the Competition Period. All
entries become the property of the Promoter.
5. Entrants must answer a skill-based question as part of the entry form. The Promotor will select the
winner based on the most creative answer to the entry question. The winner will be notified by email
(using the email address registered with the Promoter on their entry form) on or around 8 January
2021. The winner must claim their prize by responding via email by 15 January 2021.
6. The Promoter’s decision is final, and no correspondence will be entered into.
7. There is one “Prize” to be won and includes:
a. Use of a Tesla Model 3 Vehicle for a determined period of time, up to a maximum of
5 days as agreed with Tesla in advance, including Insurance and access to the
Tesla Supercharger network in accordance with the Tesla ‘Vehicle Loan Agreement’
b. Accommodation and tours experiences booked by/through Tripadvisor, valued up to
a total of AUD$3,000, for a determined period of time up to a maximum of 5 days as
agreed with Tesla in advance
c. AUD$250 per day to go towards selected restaurants, totaling up to AUD$1,250,
courtesy of TheFork Australia
8. The prize will be awarded to the winner only. All components of the prize will be provided at the
same time.
9. The prize period is non-negotiable and must be taken between 15 February – 14 March 2021
(Prize Period). The Prize must be claimed in New South Wales during the Prize Period.
10. The winner must collect the Tesla vehicle prize from the Tesla Sydney Alexandria store location
unless prior arrangements have been made. Travel to Tesla Alexandria and any ancillary costs
(including but not limited to flights, entertainment, expenses and any other costs) not listed in clause 7
above are the sole responsibility of the winner.
11. The winner may bring up to 3 guests to join them for the “Prize”.
12. The Tesla Model 3 Vehicle may only be used within New South Wales.
13. The winner agrees to grant Tesla, Tripadvisor and Destinations NSW permission to photograph and
video them and any guests they choose to invite during the Prize Period. All images and video footage
may be used for promotional purposes in perpetuity for no additional fee or remuneration as per clause
14. The Prize must be accepted as awarded and is not transferable or redeemable for cash. The
Promoter is not responsible if the winner needs to reschedule for any reason. If the winner cannot
claim the prize during the Prize Period dates outlined in clause 9, they will forfeit the prize.
15. If the Prize is unclaimed by 15 January 2021, a further winner selection will be undertaken by the
Promotor to select a replacement winner. The replacement winner will be notified by email on or around
18 January 2021. The replacement winner must claim the Prize by responding to the Promoter via
email by 18 January 2021.
16. This Promotion may be promoted through third-party websites, including Tripadvisor:
https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/InfoCenter-a_ctr.NSW_RoadTrip_The_Open_Road
https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/InfoCenter-a_ctr.NSW_RoadTrip_9_HiddenGems
https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/InfoCenter-a_ctr.NSW_RoadTrip_Greener_Road
Entrants must at all times comply with the terms of service for those third-party websites when using them
to participate in this Promotion.
17. Any attempt to enter multiple email addresses or pen names, or any use of robotic, automatic,
programmed or any other entry methods not authorized by these terms and conditions is not
permitted. All entries become the property of the Promoter. Entries that are incomplete, illegible,
damaged, contain incorrect information or do not comply with these terms and conditions will be
disqualified. Entrants who provide incorrect, incomplete, incomprehensible or fraudulent information or
whom do not comply with any of these terms and conditions are not eligible to participate in this
Competition. The Promoter reserves the right to request, appropriate photo identification to confirm
entrants’ eligibility to enter this Competition and claim a prize, before issuing a prize and may deem
the entry invalid.
18. The Promoter and its associated agencies and companies and third-party websites specified in
clause 16 are not liable for any problems or technical failure including any internet, telecommunication
or website technical problems or any damage to computers in relation to this Competition. If for any
reason this Competition is not capable of running as planned due to any technical problems the
Promoter reserves the right in its sole discretion to cancel, postpone, or amend this Competition
(subject to any directions issued by a regulatory authority).
19. The Promoter as well as its associated agencies and companies specified in clause 16 are not
liable for any loss (including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss), damage, personal injury
or death which is suffered or sustained (including but not limited to that arising from any person's
negligence) in connection with the Competition, Prize or use of the Prize. This excludes any liability
that cannot be excluded by law (in which case that liability is limited to the minimum permitted by law).
To the maximum extent permitted by the law, entrants release the Promoter and its associated
agencies, companies and Facebook from any and all claims that may arise in connection with this
20. If any of these terms and conditions are held to be invalid or unenforceable in whole or in part, that
part shall be severed from the remainder of the provisions and the validity of the other provisions and
the remainder of the provision in question shall not be affected.
21. The Promoter will collect entrants' personal information in order to conduct the Competition. If the
information requested is not provided, the entrant may not participate in the Competition. By entering
the Competition, unless otherwise advised, each entrant also agrees that the Promoter may use this
information and approved images (photograph and/or film recording) or disclose it to other
organisations (including but not limited to Destinations NSW (ABN 52 890 769 976) and TripAdvisor
Singapore Pty Ltd (SBN 201019446D)) that may use it, in any media for future promotional, marketing
and publicity purposes without any further reference, payment or other compensation to the entrant.
By subscribing to receive the Promoter’s marketing communications and entering this Competition
entrants’ consent to the Promotor collecting their personal information in accordance with the
Promoter’s privacy policy, a copy of which is available at the Tesla Website.
22. If you are the winner you agree that Tesla (and any third party authorised by Tesla) may (but is
not obligated to) use your name, person, voice and image for any promotional purpose (for example,
by placing it on the Tesla webpage and social channels for advertising media). By submitting your
competition entry you agree to waive all moral rights and to grant Tesla (and any third party
authorised by Tesla) a non-exclusive irrevocable licence to use, reproduce, publish, display, transmit,
copy, edit, amend, re-format, store, sell and sub-licence your person, voice and image worldwide and
in perpetuity for promotional purposes and for the purposes of the competition, for no additional fee or
financial remuneration of any kind. Tesla will own the right to your image and voice recordings
captured during the duration of the competition and prize period.
23. Each participant undertakes to indemnify and keep the Promoter harmless and indemnified against
any loss, damage, claims, costs and expenses which may be incurred or suffered by the Promoter due to
breach of any of these terms and conditions.
24. By entering the Competition, each Participant agrees that the Promoter shall not be liable or
responsible for damages, losses, injuries, rights, claims or actions of any kind in relation to the
Competition, or resulting from acceptance, possession, use/misuse of the Prize, including without
limitation, personal injury, death, property damage and claims based on publicity rights, defamation or
invasion of privacy.
25. The laws of New South Wales, Australia shall govern this Competition. The Participants consent to
the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located in Sydney, New South Wales.
26. The Promotor is Tesla Motors Australia, Pty Ltd (Tesla) ABN c/o Level 14, 15 Blue Street, North
Sydney NSW 2060 Australia.
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George Bush And His Son, Neil
By Godfrey Sperling Jr. Godfrey Sperling Jr. is the Monitor's senior Washington columnist.
THE Democrats have been looking everywhere for an issue with which they could whack the highly popular president. They think they have found it in the role of Mr. Bush's youngest son in the collapse of the Silverado Savings and Loan institution in Denver. The most serious charge against young Bush is that he, as a Silverado board member, improperly voted to approve loans to two of his business associates. Bush says his hands are clean. And the president, while carefully asserting that the legal process of examining his son should continue, has emotionally expressed his confidence in his son's ``honor and integrity.''
I've just come back from a couple of weeks in the Midwest where I've talked politics to a lot of people. Invariably, I was greeted with these opinions, from Democrats as well as Republicans:
(1) They were incensed over this S&L scandal and (2) they still found George Bush (and, in particular, Barbara Bush) very much to their liking.
Didn't they blame the president for the S&L scandal?, I would ask. ``Well, yes,'' they would say. But they would add that while presidential inattention had been involved, there were also those Democrats in Congress who had benefited from S&L improprieties.
So the political reality seemed clear: These voters see bipartisan sin in an S&L scandal that is going to cost each taxpayer thousands of dollars. They wish Bush and Reagan before him had acted to prevent this disaster - and they blame them for not doing so. But they still cling to their love affair with the Bushes - even though their ardor is somewhat dimmed.
Bush's popularity dipped in the polls, and the Democrats are hailing this as a sign that the president, finally, is headed toward public displeasure. Anger over the S&Ls accounted for some of this downturn. Also black support ebbed a bit.
But the July 26 poll of the Washington Post showed the president with 65 per cent public approval. That's still quite high for a chief executive who has been this long in office and who has had to deal with so many controversial issues where (like his recent Supreme Court appointment) no matter how he decides he inevitably irritates a large number of Americans.
Bush hasn't been the education president or the environmental president many Americans thought he might be - or, at least, had thought he had promised he would be. Of late, they have been quite vocal about their unhappiness with the president. That may be reflected in the polls, too, although I suspect that most of these people never voted for Bush in the first place - in the 1988 election or, later, when the pollsters tapped their opinions.
Thus, the fact is this: President Bush still is riding high. It's no overstatement to say that after a year and a half in office his honeymoon continues. His critics have yet to nick him badly.
What administration politicians refer to as ``the Neil Bush problem'' could, of course, become the president's political Achilles heel. Democrats gleefully and hopefully mention that ``little break-in at Watergate'' that, in time, became probably the worst scandal in the nation's history and one that knocked a president out of office.
The worst-case scenario for Neil Bush doesn't contain potential political disaster for this president. But if the son is proved to have been involved seriously in intentional wrong-doing, he could hurt his father a great deal. Voters do hold presidents politically liable for the indiscretions of their close relatives.
But on looking back on my conversations in the Midwest, I am left with this firm conclusion:
The Democrats have yet to find an issue that might dislodge this president at the end of his term. He's being credited with playing a skillful role in responding to the immense global changes. And the economy remains just good enough for a general contentment to still prevail.
Again and again you hear: ``Bush is such a nice guy'' and ``Barbara is great.'' The Bush honeymoon with the voters does, indeed, still continue.
Jenna Bush Hager baby is first grandchild for George W. – and for great-grandpa?
Former first lady Barbara Bush remembered for wit, supportiveness
Volunteering helps to promote 'One America'
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‘A strange thing to see’: Nearly empty trains the norm in the days of COVID
UConn Nation
NT Insider
More Insider Stories
By Angela Carella Dec. 1, 2020 Updated: Dec. 1, 2020 3:44 p.m.
‘A strange thing to see’: Nearly empty trains the...
1of10Metro-North passengers ride the local train between Greenwich and Stamford, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
2of10A Metro-North conductor collects tickets on the local train between Greenwich and Stamford, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
3of10A group of kids excitedly watch as a train passes through the Metro-North station in Greenwich, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
4of10The platform is nearly empty at the Metro-North station in Stamford, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
5of10The train platform is completely empty around noon at the Metro-North station in Greenwich, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
6of10A train arrives at the Metro-North station in Stamford, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
7of10A passenger boards the train at the Metro-North station in Greenwich, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
9of10A train arrives at the Metro-North station in Greenwich, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
10of10Passengers board and exit the train at the Metro-North station in Greenwich, Conn. on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020. New Haven Line ridership is down 80 percent and service has been reduced 38 percent as the railroad awaits crucial federal aid.Photo: Tyler Sizemore / Hearst Connecticut Media
The whistles still sound through the Glenbrook and Springdale stations in Stamford as Metro-North commuter trains travel the New Canaan branch of the New Haven Line.
But few passengers get on or off at those stations.
Up in Milford, Richard Fiengo lives near the Metro-North tracks where they split from the main line toward the Waterbury branch.
Fiengo can see the trains from his house. It’s remarkable how empty they have been since the coronavirus pandemic hit the area in March, he said, and people who commuted to jobs in New Haven, Stamford, Greenwich, New York and elsewhere began working from home.
“I see one or two, maybe three passengers on these trains,” said Fiengo, a retired vice president of sales for a packaging company who once rode the train from New Haven to New York City. “You can really see inside the trains at night, when the lights are on. Sometimes there are no passengers.”
Curious about ridership at the Bridgeport station on the main line, he took a ride there on a recent weekday.
“I didn’t see anyone on the train at all,” Fiengo said.
He got to wondering about that after he read last month about the proposed 2021 budget released by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs Metro-North, the Long Island Rail Road, and New York’s subway and bus systems.
If it does not get $12 billion in federal aid, the MTA said it would cut train service in half. It is “the greatest financial calamity” the 100-year-old MTA has ever faced, Chairman and CEO Patrick Foye said during a press conference.
Hemorrhaging riders and revenue, the MTA would also eliminate 9,400 transit-worker jobs, Foye told reporters.
It left Fiengo with a question.
“Why are they running these trains with no one on them?” he said. “If they need to find some cost savings, this would be a place.”
Asked that, an MTA spokeswoman referred questions to the Connecticut Department of Transportation, which funds and controls train service on the New Haven Line once the tracks cross the border from New York.
Connecticut DOT spokesman Kevin Nursick said the MTA operates the New Haven Line, through Metro-North Railroad, under a contract with the DOT. The DOT pays for operational costs, he said, and train service between the states is highly integrated, so the two agencies coordinate all changes.
Of course, since the start of the pandemic, the agencies have drastically reduced service on the New Haven Line — by an average of 38 percent, according to DOT data. At a press conference this week, U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal said the fiscal problem cannot be solved by deeper cutting.
The drop in service varies on the line’s three branches — New Canaan, Danbury and Waterbury.
It’s down 10 percent on the New Canaan branch, which includes the stops at Glenbrook and Springdale, according to the DOT.
The reduction in service on the Danbury branch is larger at 50 percent.
And along the Waterbury branch, where Fiengo has been watching the trains, the cut has been 14 percent.
But since COVID-19 forced companies to implement work-from-home policies in March, the fall in ridership on Metro-North in Connecticut is staggering.
According to DOT figures, 3.6 million riders used the New Haven Line in October 2019. In October 2020, it was 803,444 riders, or just 22 percent of last year’s number.
Declines on two of the branches were even more dramatic.
October figures were not available, but in September 2019, nearly 124,446 riders used the New Canaan branch. It was 22,738 riders in September of this year, only 18 percent of last year.
Ridership on the Danbury branch this September was 15 percent of what it was last September.
The Waterbury branch lost fewer riders, running this September with 40 percent of the number recorded last September.
On Monday, Blumenthal joined MTA Metro-North Railroad President Catherine Rinaldi and others at a press conference at the West Haven train station to demand that Congress act immediately to provide relief to the MTA.
“There will be a 50 percent service cut unless there is federal assistance. It is that simple,” he said. “This railroad is essential … the entire State of Connecticut depends on Metro-North” for employment and other economic activity.
Cutting service further without an injection of aid would not be enough to keep the railroad going into the new year, he said.
“The simple fact is that Metro-North faces an existential crisis. It’s been building. Ridership has been dropping - 80 percent less than last year at this time and money has been hemorrhaging,” Blumenthal said according to NBC Connecticut. “Even with the best management cost-cutting is insufficient to save service on this railroad.”
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a package of pandemic relief that includes aid for the MTA, but it is stalled in the U.S. Senate, Blumenthal said.
“The U.S. Congress needs to do its job,” he said. “I am going back to Washington today to tell my colleagues that rail service up and down the East Coast and in Connecticut will be crippled unless we move forward on this mass-transit package.”
In the meantime, Fiengo is watching the trains near the Bridgeport station.
“I rode the trains for years. They have always been full. Now it’s the opposite,” he said. “It’s a strange thing to see.”
acarella@stamfordadvocate.com; 203-964-2296.
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Nation Current Affairs 07 Jul 2016 220 km of concrete r ...
220 km of concrete roads: No potholes?
Published Jul 7, 2016, 2:36 am IST
Updated Jul 7, 2016, 2:36 am IST
The white topped road at Kasturba road is 650 metres long and 18 metres wide and built at a cost of Rs 2.4 crore.
Bengaluru Development Minister K.J. George inspecting works on Kasturba road, in Bengaluru on Wednesday. (Photo: DC)
BENGALURU: Motorists battling the city’s pothole ridden roads can now look forward to less bumpy rides, at least in some stretches. The state government plans to concretize 220 km of city roads, at a whopping cost of `800 crore, in the next two years under the Nagarothana scheme, assured K. J. George, Bengaluru Development Minister on Wednesday.
After inspecting a white topped road at Kasturba Road he told reporters that concrete or white topped roads last up to three decades and do not develop potholes. The traditional black topped roads frequently develop potholes and their maintenance cost is high, he claimed.
The white topped road at Kasturba road is 650 metres long and 18 metres wide and built at a cost of Rs 2.4 crore. Engineers have been warned against shoddy work, as it is cost intensive and the road should last for 30 years, he said.
The Minister pointed out that with the city growing at a rapid pace and steep rise in vehicle population, there is a need to widen 216 roads as per the Revised Master Plan and about 30 roads have already been taken up for the purpose. Since there is a strong opposition against Transferable Development Rights (TDR), there is a lukewarm response. A meeting will be convened in the next 15 days to make TDR more attractive, said Mr George.
Coming down heavily against the BBMP and BWSSB officials, he directed them to ensure that sewerage water does not spoil the roads and reach the drains.
They have to be connected to underground drainage. After inspecting the progress of TenderSure road at Richmond Residency and Richmond road, he directed authorities to complete the work at the earliest.
Church Street to be upgraded!
The bustling Church Street will soon get a facelift. The road from Brigade Road entrance to St. Marks Road stretching 650 metres will be white topped and Sadahalli granite will be used for footpaths.
The BBMP has been directed to complete the work within three months from the day of commencement. BWSSB has been directed to shift all utilities running beneath the road to one side of the footpath.
Dutch delegation meets George
A five-member delegation from the Netherlands called on Bengaluru Development Minister K.J. George on Wednesday to explore possibilities of knowledge partnership related to municipal water supply and other issues. Authorities from both cities exchanged best practices on elderly care, start ups, cyber security and urban cycle planning besides, municipal water supply. They also discussed about signing an MoU between Karnataka and the City of Hague. The challenges of the state and the city of the Hague were similar in nature and it provided a solid base for a peer and knowledge partnership related to Municipal Water Supply, a spokesman for the delegation said. An MoU will be signed during the visit of Mr Karsten Klein, the Hague vice mayor, and Mr WimDrossaert, CEO of Dutch Water Organisation Dunea, in November.
Tags: k. j. george, bengaluru potholes
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By Marshall Lager, founder and managing principal, Third Idea Consulting; contributor, CRM magazine
Email Authentication: A Report From 2005's Summit
Some of the biggest names in email security technology and marketing met on Tuesday to address growing concerns about the effect of spoofed email on consumer confidence and corporate reputation. A total of 37 underwriters, including the DMA, the Email Service Provider Coalition, Microsoft, Symantec, and VeriSign, hosted the Email Authentication Implementation Summit 2005 to drive a unified response to the dilemma of maintaining safe, secure, relevant communications in a largely unregulated medium. Craig Spiezle, director of technology care and strategy at Microsoft, quoted reports by Gartner and the Anti-Phishing Working Group that indicate more than 3,000 unique phishing sites exist, with 95 percent of all phishing coming from spoofed or forged email. Spam comprises 75 percent of all sent email, and the aggregate result of identity theft and lost confidence is estimated to be inhibiting U.S. ecommerce growth by 1 to 3 percent. The solution, Spiezle said, is threefold:
prescriptive guidance to educate consumers and information workers;
industry collaboration to change the electronic environment and push better legislation and enforcement;
and technology to automate authentication, accreditation, and attack prevention. Authentication of sources is only one step in retuning trust to email communication. The other element is reputation. Manav Mishra, program manager for Microsoft's MSN and Hotmail divisions, said, "Authentication is only, 'I am who I say I am.'" Copanelists Miles Libbey, antispam product manager for Yahoo!, and Travis Frazier, outbound marketing and deliverability project manager at CNET Networks, discussed technology that would assign a score to emails based on reputation for trustworthiness at several levels. "Reputation--of the message, the URLs, the sender's domain--is everything," Libbey said. Frazier mentioned reputation and accreditation providers like Habeas and ReturnPath's Bonded Sender program and Habeas as solutions that can be implemented today to verify a message's trustworthiness. According to Mishra, reputation would enable recipients to make informed choices about which senders to blacklist and which to whitelist. "Ultimate control rests in the user's defined preferences." Spiezle noted that because spammers were early adopters of authentication and digital signatures in order to look reputable, they are now easy to track and assign negative reputations to. Some of the most alarming news came from Tom Grasso, special agent for the FBI's National Cyber Forensics and Training Alliance, who informed his audience that "more than 90 percent of Fortune 100 companies have look-alike domains registered with SPF records, solely for the purpose of spoofing email recipients." These domains, owned by criminals, provide an extra level of apparent legitimacy to phishing attacks and make them more likely to succeed. Furthermore, the infamous Sobig.f worm that circulated in 2003 wasn't merely a bit of malicious code written by a bored script-kiddie. According to Grasso, it was the first portion of a program that would turn infected computers into relays for spam email, allowing phishing attacks to reach unprecedented numbers of victims, and it would remain effectively untraceable. "Clearly, if somebody can pay a programmer to write something like this there is a huge economic vulnerability in email," Grasso said. Because of the damage potential of these attacks, he continued, "cyber-crime is the FBI's number one criminal priority." Many of the speakers hit the same points, hoping to drive home the urgency of the situation:
Email authentication technology is available and must be deployed as soon as possible to pave the way for reputation-based security.
Authentication isn't enough by itself, though, as spammers were among the earliest adopters of certification and a certificate of authenticity doesn't say anything about the validity of the message content.
Spoofed emails are a serious drain on customer relations, and marketers must support strong enforcement of cyber laws to protect their customers and their own companies.
Email messages must be relevant and targeted to specific customer needs in order to stay out of the junk folder. Related articles: Online Insecurity Is Eroding Consumer Confidence Fear and Loathing in the Database AOL Tightens Its Phishing Net
Return Path and Habeas Deliver on a Merger
Former competitors aim to strengthen their collective market presence to promote the importance of email reputation management and deliverability -- in short, the "mission of saving email."
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Trump push on $2K checks flops as GOP-led Senate won’t vote
Lisa Mascaro
Washington — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell all but shut the door Wednesday on President Donald Trump’s push for $2,000 COVID-19 relief checks, declaring Congress has provided enough pandemic aid as he blocked another attempt by Democrats to force a vote.
The GOP leader made clear he is unwilling to budge, despite political pressure from Trump and even some fellow Republican senators demanding action. Trump wants the recently approved $600 in aid increased threefold. But McConnell dismissed the idea of bigger “survival checks,” saying the money would go to plenty of American households that just don’t need it.
McConnell’s refusal to act means the additional relief Trump wanted is all but dead.
“We just approved almost a trillion dollars in aid a few days ago,” McConnell said, referring to the year-end package Trump signed into law.
McConnell added, “if specific, struggling households still need more help,” the Senate will consider “smart targeted aid. Not another firehose of borrowed money.”
The showdown between the outgoing president and his own Republican Party over the $2,000 checks has thrown Congress into a chaotic year-end session just days before new lawmakers are set to be sworn into office.
It’s one last standoff, together with the override of Trump’s veto of a sweeping defense bill, that will punctuate the president’s final days and deepen the GOP’s divide between its new wing of Trump-styled populists and what had been mainstay conservative views against government spending.
Trump has been berating the GOP leaders, and tweeted, “$2000 ASAP!”
For a second day in a row, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer tried to force a vote on the bill approved by the House meeting Trump’s demand for the $2,000 checks.
“What we’re seeing right now is Leader McConnell trying to kill the checks – the $2,000 checks desperately needed by so many American families,” Schumer said at the Capitol.
The roadblock set by Senate Republicans appears insurmountable. Most GOP senators seemed to accept the inaction even as a growing number of Republicans, including two senators in runoff elections on Jan. 5 in Georgia, agree with Trump’s demand, some wary of bucking him.
Congress had settled on smaller $600 payments in a compromise over the big, year-end COVID relief and government funding bill that Trump reluctantly signed into law. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said those checks will begin to go out Wednesday.
With the Georgia Senate runoff elections days away, leading Republicans warned that the GOP’s refusal to provide more aid as the virus worsens could jeopardize the outcome of those races.
Georgia’s GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are in the fights of their political lives against Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in runoff elections that will determine which party has the Senate majority. The two Republicans announced support for Trump’s plan on checks.
“The Senate Republicans risk throwing away two seats and control of the Senate,” said Newt Gingrich, the former congressional leader, on Fox News.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “These Republicans in the Senate seem to have an endless tolerance for other people’s sadness.”
Saying little, McConnell has tried to shield his divided Republicans from a difficult vote. On Wednesday he provided his most fulsome views yet, suggesting he had kept his word to start a “process” to address Trump’s demands, even if it means no votes will actually be taken.
“It’s no secret Republicans have a diversity of views,” he said.
Earlier, McConnell had unveiled a new bill loaded up with Trump’s other priorities as a possible off-ramp for the stalemate. It included the $2,000 checks as well as a complicated repeal of protections for tech companies like Facebook or Twitter under Section 230 of a communications law that the president complained is unfair to conservatives. It also tacked on the establishment of a bipartisan commission to review the 2020 presidential election Trump lost to President-elect Joe Biden.
Democrats opposed that approach and it does not have enough support in Congress to pass.
No votes on additional COVID aid are scheduled. For McConnell, the procedural moves allowed him to check the box over the commitments he made when Trump was defiantly refusing to sign off on the big year-end package last weekend.
“To ensure the President was comfortable signing the bill into law, the Senate committed to beginning one process that would combine three of the President’s priorities,” McConnell said. “That was a commitment, and that’s what happened.”
Liberal senators led by Bernie Sanders of Vermont who support the relief aid are blocking action on the defense bill until a vote can be taken on Trump’s demand for $2,000 for most Americans.
Sanders thundered on the floor that McConnell should call his own constituents in the GOP leader’s home state of Kentucky “and find out how they feel about the need for immediate help in terms of a $2,000 check.”
Joining Trump, Republican Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Marco Rubio of Florida, among the party’s potential 2024 presidential hopefuls, also pushed the party in the president’s direction. Hawley is also leading Trump’s challenge Jan. 6 to the Electoral College result tally in Congress.
Other Republicans panned the bigger checks, arguing during a lively Senate debate that the nearly $400 billion price tag was too high, the relief is not targeted to those in need and Washington has already dispatched ample sums on COVID aid.
Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Penn., tweeted that he would block the House bill. He said “blindly borrowing” billions “so we can send $2,000 checks to millions of people who haven’t lost any income is terrible policy.”
Considered a longshot, Trump’s demand gained momentum at the start of the week when dozens of House Republicans calculated it was better to link with most Democrats than defy the outgoing president. They helped pass a bill raising the payments with robust two-thirds vote of approval.
As Trump’s push fizzles out in the Senate the debate over the size and scope of the year-end package – $900 billion in COVID-19 aid and $1.4 trillion to fund government agencies through September – will linger as potentially one last confrontation before the new Congress is sworn in Sunday.
The COVID-19 portion of the bill revives a weekly pandemic jobless benefit boost – this time $300, through March 14 – as well as the popular Paycheck Protection Program of grants to businesses to keep workers on payrolls. It extends eviction protections, adding a new rental assistance fund.
Americans earning up to $75,000 will qualify for the direct $600 payments, which are phased out at higher income levels, and there’s an additional $600 payment per dependent child.
Associated Press writer Ashraf Khalil in Washington contributed to this report.
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Surjewala supports Bhupinder Mann's decision, but says Govt still not ready to withdraw farm laws
Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala on Thursday welcomed Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) President Bhupinder Singh Mann's decision to recuse himself from the four-member committee constituted by the Supreme Court to resolve the impasse between farmers and the Centre over the farm laws.
ANI | New Delhi | Updated: 14-01-2021 22:29 IST | Created: 14-01-2021 22:29 IST
Congress leader, Randeep Singh Surjewala (Photo ANI). Image Credit: ANI
Congress leader Randeep Singh Surjewala on Thursday welcomed Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) President Bhupinder Singh Mann's decision to recuse himself from the four-member committee constituted by the Supreme Court to resolve the impasse between farmers and the Centre over the farm laws. Slamming the Narendra Modi government, Surjewala said that even though Bhupinder Mann has recused himself from the SC committee, the Centre is unwilling to repeal the laws.
"Understanding the sentiments of the country and farmers, Bhupendra Mann also backed away from the Supreme Court's committee but Modi ji is still not ready to withdraw the laws. Don't know why they want to play with the livelihood of the annadata?" Surjewala tweeted (in roughly translated Hindi. This comes after Bhupinder Mann, who is also the Chairman of the All India Kisan Coordination Committee (AIKCC), recused himself from the SC constituted committee. This comes a day before the Central government is scheduled to hold the next round of talks with farmers' unions in New Delhi on Friday.
Former Rajya Sabha MP from Punjab, Mann said he is "thankful" to the top court for nominating him in the committee but would "sacrifice" any position offered to him so as "not to compromise the interests of farmers". "As a farmer myself and Union leader, in view of the prevailing sentiments and apprehensions amongst the farm unions and the public in general, I am ready to sacrifice my position offered or given to me so as not to compromise the interests of Punjab and farmers of the country, I am recusing myself from the committee and I will always stand with my farmers and Punjab," Mann said in a statement.
Sharing the statement, BKU tweeted, "S. Bhupinder Singh Mann Ex MP and National President of BKU and Chairman of All India Kisan Coordination Committee have recused himself from the 4 member committee constituted by Hon'ble Supreme Court." The Supreme Court had on Tuesday stayed the implementation of three farms laws until further orders and appointed a four-member committee to resolve the dispute between agitating farmer unions and the Centre over the three new farm laws.
The apex court had formed a 4-member panel comprising agricultural economist Ashok Gulati, BKU national president Bhupinder Singh Mann, Pramod Kumar Joshi- Director, South Asia, International Food Policy Research Institute and Shetkari Sanghatana president Anil Ghanwat to solicit the views of farmers and the Union government. The committee has been directed to hold a dialogue with farmers and submit its recommendations pertaining to the farm laws within two months from the date of its first sitting. However, the leaders of farmers' unions had rejected the committee, saying their members were already in favour of farm laws.
Farmers have been protesting at different borders of the national capital since November 26, 2020, against the three newly enacted farm laws - Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020, the Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020, and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020. (ANI)
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QUOTES-How world leaders are reacting to Joe Biden's inauguration
Here is how world leaders are reacting to U.S. President Joe Bidens inauguration on Wednesday, replacing Donald Trump. SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT MOON JAE-IN, ON TWITTERJoeBiden, congratulations on your inauguration. America is back. Americas n...
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Woman “crying with pain” sent home from hospital with paracetamol
In the film a woman who under went major lung surgery at a Devon hospital explained her experience of Care Closer to Home.
Joe Bulmer
A woman “crying with pain” was sent home from hospital after major surgery with paracetamol, according to a new film from health campaigners.
The trailer for new film, Care Closer to Home: It's Not Working, by Save Our Hospital Services Devon claims the current policy of treating some patients at home rather than in hospital is causing “avoidable deaths”.
According to the NEW Devon CCG, the organisation which commissions healthcare in Devon, Care Closer to Home empowers patients to plan their own care and reduces the pressure on acute services.
Patient Angela Rose-Barrett
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Patient Angela Rose-Barrett said: “When I was finally discharged they just gave me paracetamol. I had major lung surgery and I’d been on morphine every few hours and when I was discharged I was in absolute agony, I was just rolling with pain and crying with pain.
“They just said, ‘here’s some paracetamol and then you can go home and organise your own care when you get home’.”
The video from SOHS claims “the NHS is being destroyed” and “hospitals are being closed leading to avoidable deaths”.
Independent county councillor Claire Wright features in the video, she said: “People have demonstrated, they have signed petitions, they’ve attended the health scrutiny committee meetings, they’ve done media interviews, joined campaign groups like yours and I just think that it’s a real shame that the Government is continuing to under fund the NHS.
Spate of "malicious" fires puts Mid Devon District's legislation into force following Grenfell disaster
“It’s not listening to people, it’s not listening to the NHS itself which is continually saying that it is unsustainable to cut the beds and have the level of funding we currently have.
“I think it is incumbent on all councillors, of every political persuasion, to take local people’s concerns seriously.
She added: “From my perspective on Devon County Council’s health and adult care scrutiny committee they are not doing that and I think they are letting people down.”
A protest against cuts to NHS funding held in Barnstaple.
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A spokesman for the NHS in Devon said: “The video makes no attempt to be balanced, featuring campaigners opposed to changes to services, with no input from NHS nurses or clinicians who look after thousands of people across Devon every day in their homes. It also makes unfounded claims about the quality of NHS community services.
“Presenting such a one-sided argument devalues the vital work staff do to ensure people are well at home. This is insensitively timed given how hard visiting staff worked – and how welcomed they felt by patients - over the recent festive period.
“We would be keen to hear from the person named in the video, as we would from anyone who feels that the care they have received has fallen below expectations, to understand their concerns more fully.”
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Daily CSR
Daily news about corporate social responsibility, ethics and sustainability
Cashless economy in Europe: whom does it benefit?
What was deemed a crazy idea just a decade ago has now drifted its way into mainstream politics. More and more ink is being given to the idea of making our economies cashless. In the eyes of promoters, it would make our societies more modern, safer, and fairer to ordinary people. But when theories are being promoted, the arguments they contain are often carefully selected, in order not to reveal who is really pushing for it. So, in the end, who really wants cash to disappear?
The first and largest category of cashless promoters is States, and superstates. Currency has been a thorn in the governmental side ever since it existed. Cash reduces a state’s ability to steer the economy, because it is invisible on cyber-radars and escapes bank control. It also is the preferred vector for fraudulent and criminal operations : cash is used to sell drugs, weapons, to hire undeclared workforce, to evade taxes, and many other illegal activities. Tracking down criminals is therefore made difficult when they work with cash, which leaves no paper trail.
But above all, killing cash would amount to hitting a jackpot for governments. Julia Werdigier wrote for Global Business : “Governments worldwide lose more than $3.1 trillion in annual revenue because of tax evasion, according to a report published Friday. The equivalent of more than 5.1 percent of global gross domestic product never reaches the coffers of 145 national governments in the form of taxes, according to the report by The Tax Justice Network, an independent group that promotes financial transparency.” When promoting the suppression of cash, governments usually imply (or outright state) that the reform would increase tax revenues, and therefore enable the reduction of taxes for “ordinary citizens”. Whether governments would indeed decrease tax rates after increasing their tax base, is up to every voter to choose to believe or not.
The second category is banking institutions. Cash is the least profitable form of money they can hold. We ordinary citizens may not realize this, because we usually hold too little, but paper banknotes are in fact quite bulky and heavy, when held in large quantities. A mere million dollars (rather little money by banking standards) forms a four-foot high and 25-pound stack. Banknotes must also be moved, using costly cash management vehicles, and replaced, and stored, and protected. Finally, cash is a liability for banks. Beyond the unlikely-but-deadly risk of a bank-run, cash evades fiscal and monetary policies. In recent months, for instance, the negative interest rates imposed by the Central European Bank has made it, quite strangely, expensive (instead of profitable) for customers to deposit their monies at the bank. As a result, they convert their savings to cash, and slowly drain banks. For all of those reasons, banks in general are quite fond of the idea that cash would disappear. Some banks even have done it, invoking safety and digitally modern reasons. In November 2016, Clancy Yeates reported “Citi is removing cash from its Australian bank branches, because it is no longer worth offering a service that is used by less than one in twenty customers. As consumers embrace digital banking and the role of cash dwindles, the US bank said its six Australian retail branches would remove cash handling services, because of falling demand from customers who instead manage their money digitally. “
And the third and last is businesses themselves. Although some small companies may appreciate the flexibility which cash provides, and also sometimes the ability to leave certain profits undeclared, most companies don’t, especially large ones. Cash increases the risk of their sales outlets being robbed, putting their employees’ safety at risk. It increases the temptation for the staff to skim off discretely some profits. It requires secure transfers to the bank on a daily or weekly basis. It raises suspicions within fiscal bodies, and therefore increases the chances of being audited, which is tedious and costly, even when no evidence of wrongdoing has been found by the audit. It requires counting and adding up everyday, providing far less automated manageability than nice clear figures on a computer screen. Ruth Reader wrote for Fastcompany, on Sweetgreen’s decision to go cashless : “ In 2017, Sweetgreen will go fully cashless in nearly all of its 64 stores after successfully testing the concept for about a year, cofounders Jonathan Neman and Nicolas Jammet tell Fast Company [...] Getting rid of cash might also speed up transactions, alleviating Sweetgreen’s peak lunch lines, which often spill out the front door and onto the sidewalk. The company says that employees can perform 5% to 15% more transactions every hour when they don’t have to handle money.” For all these reasons, and while most companies wouldn't consider refusing cash outright, they tend to prefer virtual payments.
The most important aspect of this issue is : why, despite the critical nature of the potential decision, is this staying out of mainstream media? No talk-shows are being hosted on the matter, it isn't discussed in newspapers, and the only places where debates are really held, or opinions expressed, is on independent platforms, such as blogs. The reason behind this is that those who wish for this economic reform to be implemented (banks, governments and businesses) do not wish for the subject to be debated : they wish to present it as the natural evolution of economies. And therefore, not worth arguing about. Civil rights and individual liberties defenders beg to differ, however. They consider this matter certainly should be debated, due to its potentially weighty and devastating consequences. In the list drawn above, of who would benefit a cashless economy, no paragraph is dedicated to citizens.
Tags : cash, cashless economy, cashless society, Europe
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PlanFirst Success Story: City of Washington
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DCA’s PlanFirst program recognizes and rewards Georgia communities that clearly demonstrate an established pattern of successfully implementing their Local Comprehensive Plan. Our PlanFirst “Success Story” series highlights these cities and counties by sharing their incredible achievements. You can view all of the communities on our Story Map.
Several departments in the City of Washington had one objective: To increase operational efficiency and boost employee morale by identifying and replacing unreliable, dangerous, and expensive-to-maintain equipment in Public Works, Electric, Sanitation, Water and Fire Departments. This initiative was identified in the 2014-2024 Washington Wilkes County Unified Comprehensive Plan and carried through in fiscal years 2015-2019.
The City Fire Department was until 2019 headquartered in a 1950s metal building that had formerly housed a furniture manufacturing shop. The building had not been properly upgraded for living space when it was converted in the 1970s to the fire station. Paneling covered the metal walls with no insulation and the floor lacked a proper vapor barrier, leading to mold and mildew problems. Lack of space meant no privacy for the crew, no room for expansion and barely any training space.
In addition to substandard facilities, the Fire Department vehicle fleet was underequipped. In FY 2015, Fire Chief CJ Gilland secured a grant for the purchase of a much needed 100' Pierce Platform ladder truck, with over 95% of the cost of the truck being paid from FEMA Assistance to Firefighters Grant (AFG) program. The City was also able to secure a new 2018 heavy duty rescue truck through the 2017 SPLOST Intergovernmental agreement.
In FY 2017 and 2018, the mayor and city council, recognizing the importance of ensuring that firefighters had safe and efficient living quarters, began a facilities upgrade program. Over the subsequent 24 months, the fire station was expanded and renovated to its current 8,000-square-foot size with training space, a community room, offices, kitchen, two full bathrooms, seven bedrooms and a gym.
Resulting from these efforts, the Fire Department was able to go through the process of evaluation by the Insurance Services Office, and were able to have the rating within the city limits dropped from a 3 to a 2, and in the county from 9s and 10s to, in most cases, a 6. The new fire station opened officially on Dec. 18, 2019, with a ribbon cutting and public open house. Ceremony attendance was double what was expected.
The City Sanitation Department underwent an overhaul during the same timeframe. In response to trucks that were out of date, dangerous and inefficient to operate, the City retired, replaced, and innovated to achieve better operational efficiency. In 2015, the sanitation department replaced an outdated rear loading trash truck with a new front load truck and a fleet of custom designed UTVs, and streamlined operations with the placement of trash bins in key locations, and addition of a new recycling facility.
Before the upgrades, the outdated trash truck ran residential and commercial routes, a setup that required two personnel to run the truck, which was inefficient on gas and manpower. This truck, which was also costly to maintain, was retired and replaced with a safer front load trash truck for commercial routes.
For residential routes, a fleet of UTVs was retrofitted with dump beds and side arms to lift roll out containers. The vehicle upgrades were designed by Mayor Ames Barnett, a civil engineer and owner of a construction company, and are a one of a kind.
At present, the trash truck runs the commercial routes, and picks up from centrally located dumpsters that are filled by the UTVs. This upgrade has resulted in a savings of $125,267 since 2015, as it saves on gas, and fewer operators needed to be replaced as they retired. Efficiency measures within garbage collection meant reduced overhead cost for the same level of service.
The recycling center, opened in 2018, saves on costly door-to-door pickup by giving residents a drop-off location. This allows freedom of use rather than scheduled pickups.
Other departments benefitting from the equipment upgrade program were Electric, Wastewater, Public Works and Code Enforcement. In 2015 and 2017, the Electric Department received a new pole truck and a new bucket truck; and a new Ford F150 was purchased in 2016 for service personnel to drive meter routes. The Water department received a new jet vac which saves labor on projects that require digging, and a new sewer truck that eliminates the need for personnel to climb into the sewer or dig up clogged sewer lines with a tractor.
Public Works received two new work trucks in 2017, a new workshop and a fleet mechanic’s shop in 2019. Code Enforcement was able to replace a 2002 with over 200,000 miles on it with a 2018
Ford F150. Given that Wilkes County is 475 square miles, some service calls within Wilkes County could be a total round trip of 70 miles, and the department has had days that a total of 350 miles were logged.
Public support was widespread. As efficiency of internal operations improves, so does ease of use on their public-facing side.
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Business Companies 23 Sep 2017 No plans to launch e ...
Business, Companies
No plans to launch electric vehicles in India: Toyota
Published Sep 23, 2017, 3:08 pm IST
Updated Sep 23, 2017, 3:08 pm IST
Toyota Kirloskar Motor will wait for the charging infrastructure to come up in India.
TKM is a joint venture between the Japanese auto major and Kirloskar Group. (Photo: AP)
Hyderabad: Toyota has no plans to launch an electric vehicle in India and would wait for the charging infrastructure to develop before taking a call on launching such models, according to a senior official of Toyota Kirloskar Motor (TKM).
"We have no plans to go electric," vice chairman and whole-time director of TKM, Shekar Viswanathan told PTI over buzz around EVs (electric vehicles) in the domestic auto industry with the government's aggressive push towards e-mobility.
TKM is a joint venture between the Japanese auto major and Kirloskar Group.
"Toyota (Motor Corporation) does have an electric vehicle (in its portfolio and launched in some overseas markets) but we (TKM) will wait for the charging infrastructure to come up in India before we ask Toyota Motor Corporation to give us (TKM) electric vehicle products," he said.
Viswanathan said electric vehicle technology is very simple and so, it's not very difficult to introduce such models, and agreed with the view that TKM can launch EVs at short notice.
"We (TKM) already have an electric vehicle in the hybrid, which is an electric vehicle...except that if we take away the internal combustion engine, it will become an all electric vehicle," he added.
On his expectation of TKM sales in the current financial year, Viswanathan said, "I do think it will go down slightly (compared to the previous fiscal) given the fact that GST rates have gone up."
Tags: toyota, electric vehicles, launch
Location: India, Telangana, Hyderabad
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Dimancherouge
A golden age of astrophotography, in your backyard
By[email protected]_84
Sep 13, 2020 age, astrophotography, backyard, Golden
To hear Tim Frazier tell it, the biggest show of the summer might have been the Perseid meteor shower that lights the night sky from July to August. “At night, looking up from a clear place like this, you can see up to 120 meteors an hour,” he said.
Though the retired photography professor’s work sits in the collections of New York’s Museum of Modern Art and the Art Institute of Chicago, his passion has always been astronomy.
“Well, it’s the oldest science,” he said, “because the only thing that had to happen was people look up and go, ‘I wonder …'”
A view of the Andromeda galaxy (Messier 31), 2.5 million light-years from Earth, taken by photographer Tim Frazier.
Correspondent Serena Altschul asked, “At this point in your life, if you had to choose one of these loves – astronomy or photography and your love for art – which way would you go?”
“Oh, I don’t know. I don’t know,” he laughed. “That’s really hard!”
“They’re intertwined?”
“They are. And the thing is, I think through appreciation of art and aesthetics, it makes me thoroughly enjoy what I see through the telescope more, because you’re seeing a real world that is so unbelievably complex and beautiful.”
We are in something of a golden age of astrophotography. Cheaper technology (from high-powered telescopes, to computer programs to process terabytes of data) has made it easier for amateurs to capture out-of-this-world images, like this:
Jordan Ragsdale
Boise, Idaho astrophotographer Jordan Ragsdale lets his telescope and camera run for hours, often over multiple nights, while filtering out light pollution, all to create a single useable shot.
“Every night you’re out, you run the chances of discovering a new planet potentially, discovering a new comet, a new asteroid, things like that,” Ragsdale said. “There’s been even some amateurs when they’re doing videos of Jupiter and Saturn [who] will catch collisions of asteroids into those planets.
“All the professional observatories, they don’t have cameras on every planet, every speck of the sky at all times of the day. So, there’s a lot of discovery potential nowadays, with all the new technologies that amateurs have access to, [to] find planets on other stars from their backyard, which is pretty amazing!”
With his telescope, camera equipment and computer software, Jordan Ragsdale can track objects through the night sky, capturing stunning time lapse or composite images and video.
Still, for casual stargazers in many parts of the country, the heavens have never been further away. Frazier said, “Eighty percent of Americans can’t see the Milky Way from where they live. And I know when I was growing up, I just walked in my backyard and there it was. I grew up in Nashville, and when I went back recently, there’s no way you can see that now. I mean, the light pollution’s unbelievable.”
Central Idaho, where Frazier lives now, is rich with abundant natural resources, from the Salmon River to the Sawtooth Mountains. But its greatest resource might be its night skies, some of the darkest in the country.
“We have very clear air, and relatively stable air,” said Frazier. “And that makes the viewing just particularly wonderful, because the stars can be so sharp and clear.”
To protect those skies, the towns of Ketchum, Sun Valley, Stanley and others regulate outdoor lighting as part of the Central Idaho Dark Sky Reserve, one of only 16 such territories around the world.
But there is a growing threat to our dark skies: satellites. Already there are over 2,000 orbiting the earth. And billionaire Elon Musk’s company, SpaceX, wants to launch some 30,000 more as part of Starlink – the company’s ambitious plan to offer internet to the world.
This summer, thousands signed a petition saying Starlink satellites could pose an existential threat to astronomy itself.
Being able to spot objects orbiting near the Earth is of vital importance to scientists, because when a meteorite hits our planet, it can have real-world consequences.
In 2013, a meteor the size of a six-story house exploded over the eastern Russian town of Chelyabinsk, sending hundreds to the hospital.
Meteors, said professor Meenakshi Wadhwa, director of the School of Earth and Space Exploration at Arizona State University,” have shaped the course of life on our planet. We have very good evidence of course now that 65 million years ago there was a huge impact by a large meteorite, probably six miles across, which basically led to the extinction of something like 70% of all species on Earth, including the dinosaurs. And that’s what made it possible for, you know, mammals to flourish and for us humans to be here ultimately.
“Everything that we know and understand about how our planet formed, how the solar system formed, how life might have originated on our planet, all that comes from these rocks,” said Wadhwa.
So, maybe preserving our ability to see the night sky isn’t just about star-gazing or shooting stars, or even astronomy, but something deeper and more fundamental – something to consider the next time you find yourself looking up and see no stars at all.
“It’s very disruptive,” said Frazier. “And it’s disruptive for animals like us.”
“We need the dark?” asked Altschul.
“We do need the dark.”
“Just like we need the light?”
“Exactly!” Frazier replied.
Story produced by Anthony Laudato. Editors: Joe Frandino and Mike Levine.
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Sights/Architecture
Wazir Khan mosque was built in 1634 by Shaikh Ilm-ud-din Ansari, Viceroy of Punjab under Shah Jahan. Ansari hailed from humble origins in the town of Chiniot in the Jhang district of the Punjab. He studied medicine under Hakim Dawi and was hired by the Mughal court as the personal physician of Prince Kuram, the future Shah Jehan. The young prince was so taken with Ansari's competence that he awarded him with the title Wazir Khan in 1620. Wazir is a title meaning "Minister" in Urdu.
Wazir Khan acquired a large tract of land in Lahore bounded by the Delhi Gate to the east and the Lahore Fort to the west. He founded the mosque that now bears his name on the site of the tomb of Syed Muhammed Ishaq (also known as Miran Badshah), a saint who had migrated from Iran in the 13th century. Wazir Khan also established a bathhouse (Shahi Hammam) and other commercial establishments along the road to the mosque whose income was intended to ensure maintenance of the mosque into perpetuity. Although the bathhouse did not provide as much income as intended, the bazaar to the east of the mosque was quite successful and remains a flourishing market even to the present day.
The mosque's distinguishing architectural feature is the use of minarets at each of its four corners--the first time such a design was employed in Lahore. The prayer hall follows the one-aisle five-bay motif that was first established in Lahore a generation earlier at the Maryam Zamani Mosque, which was later to find its full expression in the Badshahi Mosque built by Emperor Aurangzeb a half century later. Much of the mosque is constructed of cut and dressed brick decorated with glazed tile mosaics.
A curious feature of the mosque is the incorporation of 22 shops into its ground plan. Situated on either side of the entrance hall, these shops form a bazaar with a brick-paved passage in between. This commercial area extends east beyond the mosque into the Chowk Wazir Khan (Wazir Khan Square) which remains a vibrant commerical district to the present day.
For more details: Wazir Khan Mosque
Discover Pakistan
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In Support of Cornell's North Campus Residential Expansion
Jennifer Tavares, Business Journal News Network
I recently] spoke at the City of Ithaca’s Planning Board meeting, at its second of two public hearings (so far), in support of Cornell’s North Campus residential expansion project. Because speakers were limited to 90 seconds (due to the high number of speakers anticipated), I had to submit most of my comments to the board in writing.
I suggested at the meeting that the construction of these residence halls on campus is a necessary and welcome addition to our community, and that Cornell’s significant efforts regarding sustainability to date should speak for themselves. At the end of my comments, I also shared some brief notes about Cornell’s substantial community investments and economic impact, which are far too often overlooked and instead replaced with frequent Cornell-bashing in nearly every public forum available.
Some key points about the project, and Cornell in general, that I felt were worth noting are listed below.
#MemberNews
#EnergyEfficiency
#EmissionsReduction
#Cornell
#NewYork
#UnitedStates
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manitoba.ca > Education > K-12 > Curriculum > English as an Additional Language
Join the English as an Additional Language Maple Group!
(Login to MAPLE required)
If you are a Manitoba educator, pre-service teacher, or teaching in an international school following the Manitoba curriculum, you can join the Manitoba Professional Learning Environment (Maple) and access the English as an Additional Language professional learning group. Once you have signed up in Maple, look for and click on the banner and then join the group!
EAL Intake Process Documents, Version 1.0 (2020)
This resource is intended to support Manitoba teachers with the reception and initial English language and mathematics skills inventory of students who will be learning English as an additional language (EAL) in their schools. It provides an overview of the EAL intake process, including factors to be considered before, during, and after the intake process. There is a document for Early Years, Middle Years, and Senior Years along with fillable pdfs for each:
EAL Intake Process: Early Years
EAL Intake Process: Middle Years
EAL Intake Process: Senior Years
You can find the new EAL Intake Process documents
in the wiki of the English as an Additional Language Maple group.
Support Guide for Teachers with EAL Learners Returning after an Extended School Closure, Version 1.0 (2020)
This document was developed for teachers in supporting EAL students as they return to school after a lengthy in-school closure. This resource will help teachers plan for the well-being and the mental health of the students, program for EAL learners, and blend outcomes from the Manitoba EAL Framework with big ideas from subject-area curricula. This support document offers examples of EAL lesson plans and a list of other resources that teachers may find useful.
EAL Lesson Plan Frame ( 30 KB)
Promising Pathways: High School and Adult EAL Programming Options for English as an Additional Language (EAL) Youth , Version 2.0 (2019)
The usual route to graduation for young newcomer adult English as an additional language (EAL) learners from a public high school into post-secondary education or skilled employment may not be feasible due to the time required to learn the language and complete a Grade 12 diploma.
This document was updated to familiarize students and their advisors with the various educational options available.
Evaluating Non-Manitoba Course Completions for Senior Years Credits: A Guide for School Administrators, (2017)
This document outlines considerations, procedures, and resources to in making decisions about the educational credentials and appropriate placement of students who transfer to the Manitoba school system from another jurisdiction within or outside Canada. Principals of schools are responsible for making placement decisions, as well as for determining whether non-Manitoba course completions should receive Manitoba Senior Years credit(s).
Building Hope: Refugee Learner Narratives (2015)
Both an interactive PDF version and a print PDF version of Building Hope: Refugee Learner Narratives (2015) are available. This document is intended to help strengthen the capacity of school communities at all levels (early, middle, and senior years) to provide an appropriate and supportive school environment for refugee and war-affected learners and their families. The core of the document is the stories or ‘learner narratives’ of eleven young Canadians of refugee or war-affected backgrounds who were interviewed about their experiences before coming to Canada and their immigration life since then, with emphasis on their education pathways.
Life After War: Education as a Healing Process for Refugee and War-Affected Children (2012)...
...and the two companion documents:
Life After War: Professional Learning, Agencies, and Community Supports ( 517 KB)
War Affected Children: A Comprehensive Bibliography ( 1.36 MB)
are web-based resources that are intended to help strengthen the capacity of school communities at all levels (early, middle, and senior years) to provide an appropriate and supportive school environment for refugee and war-affected learners and their families, an environment that will nurture their mental health and well-being and enhance their educational and life outcomes.
Responding to Religious Diversity in Manitoba's Schools: A Guide for Educators (2018)
This document is intended to serve as a resource for educators and schools seeking to respond to the needs of their religiously diverse students and community. The document provides a guide for welcoming religious diversity and providing accommodations in Manitoba schools.
EAL Framework
SY LAL Numeracy Courses
ELA: EAL for Academic Success
manitoba.ca | 1-866-MANITOBA
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DraftBuddy.com
Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools
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Ben Roethlisberger Suspended Six Games—Fantasy Impact
April 21, 2010 By Dave Leave a Comment
The NFL announced that Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will receive a six game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
The suspension comes as a result of Roethlisberger being involved in two separate police investigations alleging sexual assaults within a nine month period. The league ordered Roethlisberger to undergo a comprehensive behavioural evaluation and the outcome of that evaluation as well as his conduct prior to the season will determine whether to reduce the suspension to four games.
The suspension is a huge blow to a Steelers team that was expected to compete with the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Without Roethlisberger available for at least four games, a Steelers squad that came within a game of a playoff berth in 2009 faces tougher odds of qualifying for a 2010 post-season berth.
In addition, reports indicate that the Steelers are willing to listen to trade offers for Roethlisberger provided they receive a top ten pick in the upcoming rookie draft. Of the teams that possess those picks, only the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars might consider pursuing a trade with the Steelers. The Cleveland Browns would likely have interest but a trade between the AFC North foes is a remote possibility.
Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro and finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009. The Steelers moved to a more pass-based offense last year with three solid wide receivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and second year speedster Mike Wallace.
However, Holmes was traded to the Jets and the team is expected to move to more of ground based attack in 2010.
Nonetheless, his fantasy prospects for 2010 were still solid but are now clearly diminished with the suspension. Assuming a four game suspension, drafting Roethlisberger becomes costly considering he offers zero in return to start the season, and risky unless you plan on having three quarterbacks on your roster during the suspension.
The biggest winner from a fantasy perspective is running back Rashard Mendenhall, who figures to see an increased workload early in the season. He moves up a few spots and into the top ten at running back, ranked ninth.
The biggest fantasy loser from the suspension is obviously Roethlisberger but Ward, Wallace and tight end Heath Miller also move down in the rankings with backup quarterback Dennis Dixon the likely replacement.
Dixon doesn’t have Roethlisberger’s accuracy or touch on deep balls. Expect teams to play the Steelers wide receivers tight on short and intermediate routes, at least until Dixon proves capable of hitting his wideouts deep.
Wallace was considered a breakout candidate and still should be but he moves to WR4 status given his bread and butter is big plays. Ward isn’t expected to see much of a drop but fantasy owners should be leery of drafting him as a WR2. With concerns about his age and now the quarterback play for at least four games, he looks much more attractive as a WR3.
Miller is coming off a career year in which he finished with 789 yards and six touchdowns, good enough to be the ninth ranked fantasy tight end. He moves from being a borderline starter to a solid backup for fantasy purposes.
Filed Under: Fantasy Football
Steelers Unload Santonio Holmes on the New York Jets—Fantasy Impact
With recent legal issues engulfing two of their team’s biggest stars, the Pittsburgh Steelers decided today to reduce the negative publicity surrounding the team by trading wide receiver Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets. In return, the Steelers will reportedly receive the Jets fifth round pick in the upcoming rookie draft.
Holmes is coming off a career year in 2009 and caught the game winning pass in the team’s Super Bowl Championship season in 2008 so this move is clearly not based on his ability on the field.
With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recently involved in a second sexual assault investigation since last July, the move by the team’s management to trade Holmes would seem to be an attempt to help clean up the team’s public image, an important consideration for an organization long considered to be one of the most respectable in all of pro sports.
Despite his considerable talent on the field, Holmes has had numerous legal difficulties since entering the league. This month, a woman in Florida claimed he threw a glass at her in a nightclub resulting in a cut above here eye. He has also been arrested for marijuana possession and domestic violence.
Although the Steelers only received a fifth round pick in the trade, the deal is not as one-sided as it appears to be. Holmes faces suspension given his latest legal troubles, suspected to be a four gamer, and he is entering the final year of his rookie contract and will be looking for a lucrative long-term extension from the Jets.
In New York, Holmes will likely assume a position in the starting line-up alongside Braylon Edwards with Jerricho Cotchery moving to the slot. There is also an outside chance Cotchery is moved at the draft.
The Jets now possess one of the better wide receiver depth charts in the league and this trade positions them as the team to beat in the AFC East.
Holmes topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his four-year career in 2009, finishing with 79 receptions for 1,248 yards and five touchdowns. In New York, however, his fantasy prospects dim due to the Jets focus on running the ball and the number of talented veteran wide receivers now on the roster.
Assuming Holmes receives a four game suspension, look for him to finish with about 800 yards and six touchdowns through 12 games. Edwards projects to stay at around 800 yards with the same number of touchdowns. However, neither player can be considered to have great upside unless Cotchery is traded.
Cotchery is now only worth owning in deep leagues.
Holmes presence on the Jets certainly helps the fantasy prospects of quarterback Mark Sanchez, who now has three solid wide receivers to throw to as well as pass catching tight end in Dustin Keller and running back LaDainian Tomlinson. He moves up to the 20th spot in the quarterback rankings from 26th previously.
However, the biggest winner of this trade from a fantasy perspective is Steelers wideout Mike Wallace. The third round pick dazzled as a rookie, making several big plays on his way to catching 39 passes for 756 yards and six touchdowns.
Wallace has excellent speed and Steelers management is showing they are confident he is ready to step into the starting line-up to replace Holmes’ production. He becomes a high end WR3 or low end WR2 in larger leagues but one with tremendous upside. Look for him to hit 950-1,000 yards with 7-8 touchdowns in 2010.
I was big on Wallace as a dynasty league candidate already due to Hines Ward’s age and Holmes’ troubles. He becomes much more attractive in those formats now.
Roethlisberger takes a slight hit with this trade moving from the sixth ranked quarterback to ninth overall, mostly because the Steelers don’t have great options to replace Wallace: Antwaan Randle El, Limas Sweed and Arnaz Battle. Diminutive returner Stefan Logan is also an option given the team’s musings about getting him more involved on offense.
Analyzing ADP – Wide Receivers
September 8, 2009 By Dave Leave a Comment
We analyzed the average draft position of quarterbacks and now we’re on to the wide receivers. With the number of stud running backs dwindling and numerous solid fantasy options at tight end, the wide receiver position is more than ever likely to determine your fantasy success or failure.
When it comes to drafting wide receivers, there has been a general trend to avoid solid veteran receivers who are unlikely to produce a surprise top ten fantasy season in favor of younger wide receivers who have upside but lack a history of production and are, for the most part, unproven. That being said, there are always a few big names that generally get drafted before they should.
Terrell Owens, BUF (ADP 3.10) – Owens has missed significant time during Buffalo’s preseason, QB Trent Edwards has looked horrible (and tentative) and the Bills have an inexperienced offensive line that will likely be amongst the league’s worst. The O-line will likely relegate the team to few deep throws and Edwards does not appear to have changed from his low risk approach of the past two seasons. Add it all up and Owens carries significant risk from both production and disruption perspectives.
Lee Evans, BUF (ADP 6.05) – Evans is a big play threat playing in a conservative offense led by a quarterback who is reluctant to throw deep. At his current ADP, he is the 25th receiver off the board and it is easy to find plenty of better options than Evans.
Lance Moore, NO (ADP 7.02) – He was one our projected busts and his current ADP (29th wide receiver) makes him an overvalued player in fantasy drafts. As we noted previously, in the six games that Reggie Bush missed, Moore averaged 15.5 points per game. In the other ten games, Moore averaged six points per game. In the five games in which Marques Colston, Bush and Moore all played, Moore averaged 3.3 points per game. If you draft Moore, you are banking on one or both of Colston and Bush being injured. That was his recipe for fantasy success in 2008. Remember that when you decide to overpay for Moore.
Anthony Gonzalez, IND (ADP 4.12) – Amongst wide receivers, Gonzalez is currently sandwiched between DeSean Jackson of the Eagles and Brandon Marshall of the Broncos. If that seems odd, that’s because it is. While Gonzalez possesses decent talent and plays in what figures to be a solid Indy offense, he isn’t a great red zone threat and his average yards per catch declined in his second season as he received more attention from opposing defenses due to Marvin Harrison’s decline. Gonzalez is a solid option as your third receiver but drafting him as a low end number two will prove costly.
Percy Harvin, MIN (ADP 8.02) – Let’s go back to the comparison we used above. Harvin is sandwiched between Jerricho Cotchery of the Jets and Derrick Mason of the Ravens. Harvin doesn’t have a defined role but we keep hearing that he will be used in multiple roles (wildcat, quick screens, reverses, out of the backfield). Given his lack of maturity and the number of roles he is being expected to learn, it seems more likely that he will struggle to remember his assignments. Given the history of rookie wide receivers and Harvin’s undefined role in Minnesota, this ADP makes no sense whatsoever.
Derrick Mason, BAL (ADP 9.02) – Although there is a small risk he could reconsider the retirement option, there is also a high probability that Mason will provide significant production in 2009. He has chalked up seven, 1,000 yard seasons over the last eight years and missed only six games during his 12 years in the league. In summary, he’s consistently healthy, consistently productive and his ADP represents little cost with a solid upside. What more can you ask for?
Hines Ward, PIT (ADP 7.03) – As we noted, veteran receivers are often undervalued so it isn’t a surprise that our second bargain at receiver is another veteran. Ward is coming off a 1,047 yard, seven touchdown season in which he was slowed in two games due to injury. Add in that the Pittsburgh running game isn’t what it once was, Santonio Holmes has yet to eclipse Ward as Ben Roethlisberger‘s main target and security blanket and Ward is a solid fantasy option in 2009.
Josh Morgan, SF (ADP 10.09) – Rookie hotshot Michael Crabtree‘s ADP is 9.10 and Morgan’s is 10.09. While Crabtree hasn’t signed a contract or proven anything, Morgan has taken over as the team’s number one wide receiver after an impressive rookie season that could have been outstanding were it not for injuries, the team’s reluctance to play the rookie more and the situation at quarterback. Basically, the talent is there and he has an opportunity to produce given the team’s current lack of depth at wide receiver. Look for Morgan to be a surprise fantasy performer in 2009.
Brandon Marshall, DEN (ADP 4.12) – Marshall clearly carries major risk given his ongoing feud with Denver management. However, he finished 10th in the wide receiver rankings in 2007 and followed that up with an 11th place ranking last year. He has caught 206 balls over the last two years, is in an offense that figures to rely heavily on the pass and is playing for a team that figures to be behind early and often. Plus, can new head coach Josh McDaniels really afford to run both his star QB and his star WR out of town before he’s even coached a game? Stranger things have surely happened but that sounds like career suicide. If he’s playing, Marshall will produce and it says here that McDaniels needs Marshall playing if he wants to return as head coach in 2010.
Domenik Hixon, NYG (ADP 10.05) – Hixon isn’t an overly talented wide receiver but, given the poor performance of the team’s young receivers during the preseason, he figures to be the team’s top receiving threat in 2009. With the Giants possessing a solid running game and one of the league’s better offensive lines, Hixon is unlikely to be regularly double teamed. In the middle of the 10th round, the receiver options are limited so grabbing the number one receiver on a team with a solid offense is excellent value.
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Cover Reveal: THE LETTER LEFT by Angela Ford
The Letter Left
The Healing Hearts Ranch Book 1
by Angela Ford
Genre: YA Sweet Romance
A story of remembrance, a gift, and a love rediscovered through healing hearts.
Angela Ford takes a different direction this time to bring you a new adult series. A story centered around family, horses, true love, and finding your way from the wise words left to you.
Jack Willows was a great man. He always put others first. He’d taught his granddaughter to do the same. Raine Willows left her grandfather’s farm at eighteen to find her way in life. Seven years later, his death brings her back to the farm and her first love–the boy next door.
An empowering story of healing through horses. A farm that introduced her to the boy next door–Luke Daniels. The one she could never forget, no matter how many years and miles came between them. Grief reunites them, horses help heal their hearts, and gives them an idea to help others. An idea that had been her grandfather’s dream for her. The letter he left, changed the direction of her life and her heart.
Angela resides in Nova Scotia - Canada's Ocean Playground. Inspired by sunsets, the ocean, her family, and books! She is never without a book, whether she's reading or writing. Angela is a bestselling and award-winning author who has been in the Amazon top fifty, Readers' Choice Awards and ScreenCraft. She has over 50 published works in paperback, eBook, audiobook, and foreign translation. An Award of Distinction sparked the idea for her first book 'Closure' that hit Bestselling Action & Adventure, Women's fiction. In between mysteries, Angela writes short contemporary romance. She loves to connect with her readers!
Website * Facebook * Twitter * Bookbub * Amazon * Goodreads
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Other Events | 15 May 2014
KARLSSON enjoys relaxed atmosphere in Auckland
At the STAG 2014 World Veteran Championships in the New Zealand city of Auckland after a rest day yesterday, players are back for another day of competition. Austria’s DING Yi beat Germanys Robert MULLER 3 -0 (11-2, 11-2, 11-4) to advance to the next roun
At the STAG 2014 World Veteran Championships in the New Zealand city of Auckland after a rest day yesterday, players are back for another day of competition.
Austria’s DING Yi beat Germanys Robert MULLER 3 -0 (11-2, 11-2, 11-4) to advance to the next round in the men’s singles 50 – 59. Germany’s Jaroslav KUNZ plays Lubomir Valek from Slovakia in the men’s 65 – 70 section. The tournaments oldest male player, 93-year-old New Zealander, Harry TAYLOR will also play later this evening against Charles Usher from England.
Over 40’s competitor Peter KARLSSON, of Sweden, eased his way into his evening match. The first round was neck and neck. However, the second and third was played superbly by KARLSSON, who predominantly performed with a strong forehand. With an aura of certainty about him, he explained that he is “loving the relaxed atmosphere” the arena delivers.
Final scoring for KARLSSON’S game consisted of an 11-9 win in the first round, 10-4 win in the second and an 11-6 win in the third. KARLSSON is next due to play Seref BAKANAY from Australia this evening (Thursday 15th) at 20:30, on table 17, so jump online to watch Live Feed http://static.viewer.dacast.com/b/19938/c/45475.
Monika KNEIP, although in the 60-64 category, has been throwing herself around the arena. All the way from Germany and with a previous win in 2012, for the same category, she is someone to keep an eye on.
Courtesy of http://www.wvc2014.com/
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MULAOMEROVIC, DAMIR
Olympiacos 22 Guard
Height: 1.95 Born: 19 September, 1974 Nationality: Croatia
Totals 6 0 58:30 15 3/8 1/6 6/10 1 7 8 4 1 7 0 1 5 6 7
Averages 6 0 9:45 2.5 37.5% 16.7% 60% 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 1.2 0 0.2 0.8 1 1.2
1 vs Tau Ceramica Vitoria-Gasteiz 8:00 0/1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1
2 at Climamio Bologna 11:00 6 1/1 4/6 1 1 1 1 3 8
3 vs Prokom Trefl Sopot 16:15 1 0/2 1/2 2 2 1 1 1 -1
4 at Le Mans 4:30 1 1 1
5 at Efes Pilsen 8:45 5 2/4 1/2 2 2 2 2 1 1
6 vs Dynamo Moscow 10:00 3 0/3 1/3 3 1 1 1 -2
6 Totals 58:30 15 3/8 1/6 6/10 1 7 8 4 1 7 0 1 5 6 7
Average 9:45 2.5 37.5% 16.7% 60% 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 1.2 0 0.2 0.8 1 1.2
Index rating 31 Panathinaikos Athens vs. CSKA Moscow 12/20/2001
Points 31 Panathinaikos Athens vs. CSKA Moscow 12/20/2001
Offensive rebounds 2 Panathinaikos Athens vs. Zagreb 11/30/2011
Defensive rebounds 5 Real Madrid vs. ASVEL Villeurbanne 2/12/2003
Total rebounds 6 Real Madrid vs. ASVEL Villeurbanne 2/12/2003
Assists 10 Unicaja Malaga vs. Zagreb 11/9/2011
Steals 4 Aris Thessaloniki vs. Cibona Zagreb 11/7/2007
Blocks 0 Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Zagreb 12/21/2011
Minutes 38 Panathinaikos Athens vs. CSKA Moscow 12/20/2001
Grew up with BC Sloboda Tuzla (Bosnia-Herzegovina) juniors.
Moved to Croatia for the 1994-95 season signed by Dona Zagreb.
Signed for the 1994-95 season by Cibona Zagreb.
Played there till the 1997-98 championship.
Moved to Italy for the 1998-99 season, signed by Fortitudo Bologna.
Moved to Turkey for the 1999-00 season, signed by Efes Pilsen Istanbul.
Played there also the 2000-01 championship.
Moved to Greece for the 2001-02 season, signed by Panathinaikos Athens.
Moved to Italy for the 2002-03 season, signed by Amatori Udine.
On November '02 left the team.
Moved to Spain, signed for the remainder of the season by Real Madrid CF.
Moved to Greece for the 2003-04 season, signed by PAOK Thessaloniki.
Signed for the 2005-06 season by Panellinios Athens.
Signed for the 2006-07 season by Olympiacos Piraeus.
On January '07 moved to Spain, signed by Bruesa Guipuzcoa BC.
Moved to Croatia for the 2007-08 season, signed by Cibona Zagreb.
Back to Greece for the 2008-09 season, signed by PAOK Thessaloniki.
On January'09 moved to Croatia, signed by KK Zagreb.
He's still playing there.
Won the 2002 Euroleague with Panathinaikos Athens.
Won the 1994-95, 1995-96, 1996-97 and 1997-98 Croatian National Championship with Cibona Zagreb.
Won the 2010-11 Croatian National Championship with KK Zagreb.
Won the 1995 and 1996 Croatian National Cup with Cibona Zagreb.
Won the 2001 Turkish National Cup with Efes Pilsen.
Won the 2009, 2010 and 2011 Croatian National Cup with KK Zagreb.
Played the 2004. 2005 and 2006 Greek All Star Game.
Led the 2003-04 Greek League in assists (6.3 apg.).
Member of the Croatian National Team.
Played at the 1996 Olympic Games.
Played at the 1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003 European Championship.
Led the 1997 European Championship in assists (6.4 apg.).
2001-02 Panathinaikos Athens 15 202 13.5 43/91 47.3 23/53 43.4 47/63 74.6 29 21 38 0
2002-03 Real Madrid 5 61 12.2 14/26 53.8 7/20 35 12/12 100 10 5 12 0
2006-07 Olympiacos 6 15 2.5 3/8 37.5 1/6 16.7 6/10 60 8 1 4 0
2007-08 Cibona 11 79 7.2 15/30 50 10/34 29.4 19/30 63.3 14 12 21 0
2011-12 Zagreb 9 94 10.4 21/53 39.6 9/20 45 25/28 89.3 11 4 26 0
Totals 46 451 9.8 96/208 46.2 50/133 37.6 109/143 76.2 72 43 101 0
Averages 46 451 9.8 96/208 46.2 50/133 37.6 109/143 76.2 1.6 0.9 2.2 0
2002-03 Snaidero Udine 5 85 17 14/25 56 13/31 41.9 18/21 85.7 11 5 16 0
2004-05 PAOK Thessaloniki 9 187 20.8 39/64 60.9 23/60 38.3 40/50 80 21 12 70 0
Totals 14 272 19.4 53/89 59.6 36/91 39.6 58/71 81.7 32 17 86 0
Averages 14 272 19.4 53/89 59.6 36/91 39.6 58/71 81.7 2.3 1.2 6.1 0
1995/96 Cibona 33 297 9 59/88 67 38/84 45.2 65/77 84.4 47 40 73 0
1996/97 Cibona 22 355 16.1 74/120 61.7 35/85 41.2 102/121 84.3 27 29 72 1
1997/98 Cibona 25 409 16.4 56/118 47.5 61/135 45.2 99/117 84.6 29 40 79 3
1998/99 Fortitudo B. 33 389 11.8 65/121 53.7 57/144 39.6 88/110 80 58 80 63 0
1999/00 Efes Pilsen 34 508 14.9 92/180 51.1 64/161 39.8 132/166 79.5 79 48 181 0
2000/01 Efes Pilsen 32 577 18 101/186 54.3 71/177 40.1 161/187 86.1 88 53 129 1
2001/02 Panathin. 17 243 14.3 42/78 53.8 31/66 47 66/78 84.6 32 24 55 0
2002/03 Udine 10 153 15.3 28/72 38.9 19/55 34.5 40/47 85.1 26 25 30 0
Real Mad. 22 218 9.9 38/78 48.7 33/95 34.7 43/58 74.1 32 19 56 0
2003/04 PAOK 28 565 20.2 106/200 53 70/191 36.6 143/184 77.7 66 38 176 0
2004/05 PAOK 20 336 16.8 60/111 54.1 36/107 33.6 108/127 85 37 16 119 2
2005/06 Panellinios 24 507 21.1 60/125 48 76/166 45.8 159/197 80.7 52 14 120 1
2006/07 Olympiacos 8 75 9.4 13/25 52 13/22 59.1 10/18 55.6 12 5 13 0
Bruesa 13 141 10.8 21/53 39.6 19/57 33.3 42/49 85.7 18 9 24 0
2007/08 Cibona 12 215 17.9 32/52 61.5 30/63 47.6 61/69 88.4 31 36 75 0
2008/09 PAOK 11 137 12.5 21/56 37.5 16/37 43.2 47/54 87 25 8 41 0
KK Zagreb 16 256 16 41/72 56.9 35/79 44.3 69/85 81.2 25 49 82 0
2009/10 KK Zagreb 12 132 11 28/49 57.1 11/45 24.4 43/54 79.6 7 10 49 0
2010/11 KK Zagreb 12 150 12.5 27/49 55.1 23/63 36.5 27/36 75 22 9 41 3
SUPROLEAGUE
2000/01 Efes Pilsen 26 196 7.5 104/184 56.5 49/138 35.5 141/158 89.2 52 46 129 0
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Watch Eurosport Anytime, Anywhere
Subscribe NowFind out more
A. Burakovsky 5'
Ball Arena
O. Sundqvist 10', 55'
J. Kyrou 14'
K. Clifford 47'
NHL • West Division
avant-match
Colorado Avalanche - St. Louis Blues
Follow the NHL live Ice Hockey match between Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues with Eurosport. The match starts at 03:30 on 14 January 2021.
Catch the latest Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues news and find up to date Ice Hockey standings, results, top scorers and previous winners.
Ice Hockey fans can find the latest Ice Hockey news, interviews, expert commentary and watch free replays. See detailed profiles for Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues. Catch all the upcoming competitions. Make Eurosport your go-to source for sports online from Ice Hockey to cycling, F1, winter sports and more. Enjoy live streaming of this season’s top sports competitions.
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To get Eurovision Asia off the ground, we need YOUR support: Join the contest’s social media channels to stay updated and help spread some buzz!
Follow on TwitterJoin on FacebookFollow on InstagramFollow on Google+Subscribe on YouTube
Enquiries can be sent to info@eurovisionasia.tv.
What is Eurovision Asia?
Eurovision Asia is the Asia-Pacific version of the most spectacular television entertainment event in the world; the Eurovision Song Contest.
What is the Eurovision Song Contest?
The Eurovision Song Contest is the longest running live televised song competition in the world. The contest was held for the first time in Europe in 1956 and has been held ever since every year. Famous artists like Céline Dion and ABBA saw their careers thrive after winning the contest.
When and where will the first Eurovision Asia Song Contest take place?
Organising the first ever Eurovision Asia Song Contest takes a lot of work and the project is in development. The location and timing will be communicated once finalised.
Who will take part in the first Eurovision Asia Song Contest?
Just like in its European counterpart, Eurovision Asia will be as diverse as possible, featuring up and coming talent, well-established artists and everything in between.
How will Eurovision Asia be different from the European edition?
Eurovision Asia will closely resemble the original Eurovision Song Contest. At the same time, you can rest assured that Eurovision Asia will be adapted to the hopes and dreams of the Asia-Pacific audience.
EurovisionAsia.tv is the official website of the Eurovision Asia Song Contest.
© Eurovision Asia 2017. All rights reserved.
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Elipse Software, a global software developer specialized in solutions for real-time management of industrial processes, energy, wastewater, and infrastructure, have just released the newest version for their supervisory solution, Elipse E3 5.0, which introduces new, exciting features.
The E3Chart tool, for example, now features automatic pens that allow accessing real-time and history data via a single connection. This makes for an even easier integration between real-time data and the data stored in EPM (Elipse Plant Manager), Elipse’s data collection, storage, and analysis platform.
E3 Studio’s look has also been renewed: the default theme is now different, and new styles are available for developers, as well as new keyboard shortcuts that help their work occur more smoothly. Additionally, its interface design has been optimized, and the Domain is now verified quicker, with more detailed information.
E3 Studio’s new interface
The overall system performance has been improved for version 5.0: memory usage has been reduced, which, in turn, reduces the application’s time to load. Finally, the Find/Replace tool now allows you to search for categories, which in turn allows restoring user options between sessions. With it, you can have two different windows displaying the Find/Replace results, now available in different groups.
This tool also lets you add results from a new search, or to replace pre-existing ones. Renaming with the multiple selection resource becomes more consistent, and multiple objects can be checked in views that allow multiple selection.
For further information about Elipse E3 version 5.0, access its RelaseNotes.
Check our new KnowledgeBase and access all Elipse’s technical articles.
Categories Business - nullDrivers developmentEvento ENMobileNewsSem categoria
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Carp, Horia
CARP, HORIA (Jehoshua ; 1869–1943), Romanian journalist. Born in Harlau, Carp received a medical degree from the University of Jassy. He became a member of the Zionist movement as a youth and from 1901 to 1904 edited the Romanian-language weekly Mevaseret-Zion. He also contributed to the Romanian press, and in 1911 edited the magazine Cultura. Devoting much of his activity to the Union of Romanian Jews, he founded in 1906 the weekly Curierul Israelit, which became its semiofficial publication. His published books include Ganduri faramate ("Tormented Thoughts," 1905), Suflete obosite ("Tired Souls," 1918), and Din vremuri de urgie ("From Wrathful Times," 1924), all on Jewish themes. Carp also translated Herzl's Altneuland (in 1918), Graetz's History of the Jews (in 2 vols., 1903), and Yiddish literature. He was a member of the Romanian Senate, but in 1941 was arrested and tortured by the legionnaires in the period of their rebellion. He eventually succeeded in making his way to Ereẓ Israel.
[Abraham Feller]
Carp's son, matatias carp (1904–1952), born in Bucharest, was a lawyer and secretary of the Union of Jewish Communities of Romania. From 1946 to 1948 he published Cartea Neagra ("The Black Book"), three volumes of documents about the suffering of Romanian Jews in the Holocaust (new edition 1996). He later immmigrated to Israel, where he died.
add. bibliography:
A. Mirodan, Dictionar neconventional, i (1986), 290–93; T. Goldstein, De la Cilibi Moise la Paul Celan (1996), 146–77; A.B. Yoffe, Bisdot Zarim (1996), 416–18.
[Lucian-Zeev Herscovici (2nd ed.)]
"Carp, Horia ." Encyclopaedia Judaica. . Encyclopedia.com. 14 Jan. 2021 <https://www.encyclopedia.com>.
"Carp, Horia ." Encyclopaedia Judaica. . Encyclopedia.com. (January 14, 2021). https://www.encyclopedia.com/religion/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/carp-horia
"Carp, Horia ." Encyclopaedia Judaica. . Retrieved January 14, 2021 from Encyclopedia.com: https://www.encyclopedia.com/religion/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/carp-horia
Romania , ROMANIA , country in East-Central and South-East Europe, in the Carpatho-Danubian region, north of the Balkan Peninsula, partly on the littoral of th… Cochin Jew , ETHNONYMS: Cochin Jews, Cochinis (Israel), Malabar Jews, Paradesi Jews, Black Jews Orientation Identification and Location. The Cochin Jews constitut… Czechoslovakia , CZECHOSLOVAKIA , republic in Central Europe. Founded in 1918, it united within its political framework the Jewries of the "historic countries" (*Bohe… Jews , Jews Jews [from Judah], traditionally, descendants of Judah, the fourth son of Jacob, whose tribe, with that of his half-brother Benjamin, made up th… Shiraz , SHIRAZ , capital of the former province of Fars, S. *Iran. The existence of a Jewish community in Shiraz is attested by Persian and Arab geographers… add. bibliography: , RIGA RIGA (Lettish Riga ), Baltic port, capital of Latvia; under Russian rule from 1710 to 1917, capital of Livonia (Livland); 1944–1991 in the Latvi…
Netherlands, The (Holland)
History: Modern Times – from the 1880s to the Early 21st Century
Lithuanian Jews
Segal, Ariel 1965-
Carp, Daniel A. 1948–
carouser
carousal
carotinaemia
carotid-artery stenosis
Carotid Ultrasound
Carotid Sinus Massage
Carotid Duplex Sonography
Carotid Disease
carotid artery
Carothers, Wallace
Carothers, Thomas
Carothers, E. Eleanor (1882–1957)
Carothers
carotenaemia
Carossa, Hans
Caroso, Fabrizio
Carosio, Margherita (1908–2005)
Carosio, Margherita
Carophyll
Carone, Gabriela Roxana
Carondelet, François-Louis Hector (1747–1807)
Carondelet, Francisco Luis Hector, baron de
Carp, Paula
carp-
carp.
Carpaccio, Vittore ca. 1465–ca. 1525 Italian Painter
Carpadios, Marissa (1977–)
carpal spur
Carpal Tunnel Release
Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Fracture
Carpal Tunnel Syndrome, Cumulative Trauma
Carpani, Melchiorre
Carpathian Ukraine
Carpatho-Rusyn Americans
Carpathus
Carpaţii
Carpelan, Bo 1926- (Bo Gustaf Bertelsson Carpelan)
Carpentarian
carpenter ant
carpenter is known by his chips, a
carpenter moths
Carpenter Technology Corporation
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Dictionaries thesauruses pictures and press releases
Chesimard, Joanne (1948–)
African-American radical and terrorist. Name variations: now goes by the name Assata Shakur; has used such aliases as Barbara Odoms, Mary Davis, Justine Henderson, Joanne Byron, Josephine Henderson, and Joanne Chesterman. Born July 16, 1948, in Brooklyn, NY; aunt of deceased rapper Tupac Shakur; children: 1 daughter.
Was a member of the Black Liberation Army (BLA); while traveling with BLA members James Costan and Clark Squire, was stopped for traffic violation by New Jersey state trooper James Harper (May 2, 1973), who was wounded in an ensuing gun battle, while trooper Werner Foerster, who next arrived on scene, was killed along with Costan; with Squire, was convicted of murder, assault, robbery and weapons offenses and sentenced to life imprisonment (1977); escaped from Edna Mahan Correctional Facility for Women in Clinton, NJ (1979); made her way to Cuba, which has no extradition treaty with US (1986); took the name Assata Shakur.
See also autobiography Assata (1987).
Dictionary of Women Worldwide: 25,000 Women Through the Ages
"Chesimard, Joanne (1948–) ." Dictionary of Women Worldwide: 25,000 Women Through the Ages. . Encyclopedia.com. 14 Jan. 2021 <https://www.encyclopedia.com>.
"Chesimard, Joanne (1948–) ." Dictionary of Women Worldwide: 25,000 Women Through the Ages. . Encyclopedia.com. (January 14, 2021). https://www.encyclopedia.com/women/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/chesimard-joanne-1948
"Chesimard, Joanne (1948–) ." Dictionary of Women Worldwide: 25,000 Women Through the Ages. . Retrieved January 14, 2021 from Encyclopedia.com: https://www.encyclopedia.com/women/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/chesimard-joanne-1948
Assata Shakur , Shakur, Assata (Chesimard, Joanne Deborah Bryon) Born in Queens, New York, Joanne Deborah Bryon, a nationalist and activist, spent her early childhoo… Sharpe James , James, Sharpe 1936– Mayor, state senator Sharpe James is the 35th mayor of Newark, New Jersey’s largest city. Originally elected mayor in 1986, James… John Henrik Clarke , Clarke, John Henrik 1915–1998 Educator In the course of his long and varied academic career, John Henrik Clarke made tremendous contributions to the… William Powell , Educator, diplomat William Powell gained prominence in New Jersey as a teacher and educational leader prior to attracting the attention of several pr… Black Nationalism , Raymond A. Winbush Black nationalism is the ideology of creating a nation-state for Africans living in the Maafa (a Kiswahili term used to describe t… Dorothy I. Height , Height, Dorothy I. 1912– Former organization president Dorothy I. Height has been a prominent organizer and leader representing African American wome…
DAVIS, EDWARD
Davis, Benjamin O., Sr
Beach, Holly (b. 1884)
Names and Naming, African
Barber, Francis
Davis, George 1939–
African-American Ideas
Glutting, Charlotte E. (1910–1996)
Cheshire, Simon
Cheshire cheese
Cheshire Building Society
Chesha Bay
Chesebrough-Pond’s USA, Inc.
Chesebrough, David B.
Chesebrough, Caroline (1825–1873)
Chesebrough, Caroline
Chesbro, John Dwight ("Jack")
Chesapeake-Leopard Incident
Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
Chesapeake Region
Chesapeake Colonies
Chesapeake College: Tabular Data
Chesapeake College: Narrative Description
Chesapeake College: Distance Learning Programs
Chesapeake College
Chesapeake Capes
Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel
Chesapeake and Ohio Canal
Cheskin, Lawrence J. 1958-
Chesler, Ellen
Chesler, Phyllis
Chesler, Phyllis (1940–)
Chesler, Phyllis 1940-
Chesley, Robert 1943-1990
Cheslock, Louis
Chesman, Andrea
Chesme
Chesme, Battle of
Chesney, Francis Rawdon
Chesney, Marion 1936–
Chesney-Lind, Meda 1947-
Chesnoff, Richard Z. 1937- (Richard Zeltner Chesnoff)
Chesnut, Mary (Boykin) Miller
Chesnut, Mary Boykin (1823–1886)
Chesnutt, Vic
chess opening position
Chess Playing
Chess, Leonard
Chess, Richard
Chess, Stella 1914-2007
chess-playing programs
Chessa, Francesca
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"they look like rangers, well at least some do. I think the big one over there is emerald enclave." Ashur points at one of the approaching figures.
"Hmph. WHat do they want?"
"We'll know when the get closer," Ana says. "Sheath your weapons as I suspect this won't be a fight."
When they get close enough, "Hello. May I ask what you've done with the chimera?"
"They don't normally clean up dead beasts in the wild, do they?" Robyn asks, somewhat rhetorically. "There must be something else up. Maybe they're tracking the beast that must have mangled the chimera before you fought it."
"Cleaning up normal creatures, that wouldn't make sense," Ana says. "But I'm sure a chimera can fetch some gold from academic and alchemist types."
OOC: Okay fine, don't help me with the setting-building.
Two figures have been steadily stalking up the hill toward you, and finally get close enough for you to get a clear look at them. There is a big, burly woman with a hooded green cloak and darker green leather armor, form-fitted sleekly over a large-breasted and wide-hipped frame, with a plain-looking face that bears more than a couple of scars. Next to her is a half-orc boy who looks to be about twelve, though anyone familiar with orc biology knows that they reach maturity in something like three years, so an adolescent-looking person with half human and half orc blood could be as young as six (and there are such things as three-quarter orcs or even seven-eighths orcs). Though he has the gray skin and slightly protruding tusks, his build is whip-thin and wiry, not at all the stocky muscularity one expects from an orc, and he's dressed in brown traveler's clothes which have none of the martial trappings of the woman's gear, although he does have a shortsword on his belt.
Getting to within about a hundred feet, the two pause and the woman hails you in a loud, contralto voice. "Ho there; you lot look like expeditionaries. Do you know anything about the army that marched through this area several days ago?" "Hey Shel, you might at least offer greetings first; you don't know that they had anything to do with this," the hybrid youth interjects, his own voice quiet and yet resonant, carrying just as well across the distance while being much less hard on the ears. "They're armed, they're armored, and one of them has a clockwork horse. I doubt they're completely innocent." "Nonetheless, you could better do honor to our own cause by observing polite formalities." "Hmph. Fine. I am Fiona Shelterweight of the Emerald Enclave, holding the rank of Second Commandant in the White Pangolin Division, Tenth Contingent, based out of Ardeep Forest. This is my tertiary adjutant, Private First Class Nevek. Now, you know who we are; who are you?" she finishes with her hands on her hips, clearly bristling with skepticism that borders on hostility.
"Greetings Fiona and Nevek. I am Ana. We have no idea what army marched through here," Ana says. "Ashur--" she points to Ashur "--and I noticed the soldiers' tracks yesterday as we passed this way. But we never saw the soldiers. We did find the creature loose from its chains and starving. We had to put it down. In the town of Armighast, back that way, we were told about the history of the chimera. This man, Ninuel Hartleigh, created the spells to bind the creature in the first place. He was surprised the creature got loose and we were going to show it to him but there seems to be little evidence left now."
"So you were the irresponsible sots who just left the thing out in the open to rot?" "Shel, c'mon, that attitude's not helping. I was one of the ones who dug the grave, and you don't see me complaining." "Quiet! Just who do you lot think you are anyway? You think you have the right to come stomping through here and mess up an already-FUBAR situation with your unprofessional actions?" "Miss Shelterweight, please. If anyone has the right to a stake in these proceedings, it is me; I was the one who forged the chain to restrain the chimera here, and if anyone is responsible for the fact that the bonds were somehow circumvented, I am at fault and I would like to know how it happened. Do you still have the harness itself? As the 'professional' onsite, as you put it, I would like to examine the device and its enchantments, to see if I can get to the bottom of everything." The militant ranger seems distinctly unhappy, but apparently Hartley's approach to disarming her hostility was the correct one; Fiona turns and waves him to follow, and heads back down the ridge with the smith and his clockwork horse trailing behind. Nevek is left to talk to those of you who remain, and he seems vastly more approachable.
Robyn turns to Ana, “An army came through, eh? I wonder if they had anything to do with freeing the chimera. It would seem pretty irresponsible, but such a thing might tell us something about the nature of the army.”
”Hey, Nevek, is Shelterweight always this pricky or is she particularly wound up by something? I didn’t come this way so all of this is news to me.”
"We have no idea, Robyn." Ana turns to Nevek. "I'm guessing you had a shovel, unlike the two of us. What crawled up the Second Commandant's ass, Nevek?" After he answers, she presses forward to follow the mage and doesn't let Nevek stop her.
(OOC: Damn, Ana was going to press Fiona hard about her hardass tactics. She probably would have cut off Ninuel before he could make nice.)
Ashur starts to laugh at the tirade. The normally quite hunter is finding the situation hilarious.
Wiping tears from his eyes he retorts " I notice you didn't arrive while it was loose and killing people. Too busy flying above the world's problems?"
Dumos pointedly ignores the commander and goes to the folk who are dealing with the dead chimera. "Burial is for those left behind. This creature has no-one left behind to mourn it. And, if you just leave it in the bushes, the local predators will do the job for you."
OOC: Mips, the Chimera is already buried, so your post is out of continuity, but please leave it up because I think it's good characterization; we can just assume you said something of this sort to someone in your past at some point.
The half-orc boy Nevek smiles, sitting down upon a rock that's far too small to make a comfortable seat for pretty much anyone human-sized. "Shel's got a right to be cranky, but not to take it out on you, since you're clearly not part of the Dragon Army. We think they were the ones who let the chimera loose, but we still don't know why; they've been making quite a lot of trouble, and our Enclave is one of those who are trying to disrupt their operation. She'd have liked to have been one of the frontline soldiers who actually engaged with these enemies and forced them to retreat from one of our sanctuaries, but by the time we got word of the attack it was already over. Anyway, from what we've observed, the group that we battled with was only a diversionary arm of the main force; we don't know where exactly they are, but we've gotten a lot of reports of small villages being pillaged of all their valuables, and more than a few of our contacts have disappeared in circumstances that suggest they might well have been abducted or killed simply to silence them. It's bordering on a full-fledged war, but not one that anybody bothered to declare openly. And we still don't know who exactly they're fighting for."
Spoiler: jmuchiello ooc
Not sure who you think the mage is; if you meant Fiona, there's no evidence she has any magic, or at least any more than an average Ranger. The way I figure, if this bunch had any significant amount of magical power, they wouldn't be traveling by balloon.
OOC: Fair point.
"Dragon army? The last place we were had a dragon cult, a dragon they were in league with and was attacked but a different dragon. I thought dragons were rarer than they seem to be."
OOC: Even already buried, he could have just been saying they could have just left the creature. Ana was going to say that exact same thing but Fiona walked away too quickly and I had to edit it out of my initial response to Robyn and Nevek
Spoiler: Response to spoiler
I had a bunch text Ana was going to say in response to Fiona being bitchy but after writing it noticed she had already walked away. So what I said above is if we were sitting around a table, when the mage Ninuel said "Miss Shelterweight", Ana would have cut him off and laid into Fiona asking her how two people with no shovel would bury a 5-10 ton creature? But we're not at the table. So I deleted it and wrote something about talking to Robyn and Nevek instead. No big deal. And I know who is who.
"This is the first I'm hearing about this," Ana said as she followed after Ninuel and the Second Commandant.
OOC: Oh right, that mage. I keep forgetting my own NPC is in the scene, that's always a great sign. Welp, I'm too tired to write any more at this point, so I'll give Ashur and Robyn's players another chance to respond, and if they don't I'll eventually respond to Mips's point.
"Sounds like we could all use a briefing on this subject. Let's all follow along and we can badger Shelterweight together. What can go wrong?" Robyn asks with a grin. He turns to Nevek, "Why don't you come along, son. You can fill us in on any more details if you have them. I suppose this is an army of men or other humanoids, not dragons. So what can you tell us about the nature of this "dragon" army? They worship or revere dragons or just fly standards bearing them?"
Nevek looks thoughtful at the tiefling sellsword's question. "Rare isn't quite the right word. 'Retiring' is closer. They're numerous enough, on the global scale at least, but they tend to spend most of their time in hibernation, brooding atop their treasure hordes. While their metabolism is partly magical, they're still flesh-and-blood creatures, so they need to burn energy in order to function, the same as any animal. To live for centuries as they do, they spend most of their time asleep, which means those who have political aspirations work through intermediaries a lot. Thusly, they're assumed to be rare, because nobody sees them most of the time. Presumably the battle you describe involved one dragon who was in league with this army of cultists, and another who was out of the political loop and thought he could succeed through his own sheer power. Both of them appear to have died for their respective ambitions, but the one who sided with a human faction may still have some allies surviving to carry on his goals, if he had any which were not completely selfish. There's a lesson in there somewhere, I'm sure..."
"You seem to know a lot about dragons."
"Not directly. Our expert on the subject is back at Home Tree, but when he talks, I listen. My specialty is people, which means paying attention to others who specialize in something else."
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News Release Listing
Epilepsy Foundation Rolls Out First Ever 2.6 Million Mile Challenge as Part of its Walk to END EPILEPSY® Series
Walk Participants Across the Country to Join Together to Raise $1.75M LANDOVER, Md. — The Epilepsy Foundation today launched the 2.6-million-mile challenge to encourage people across the country to walk 2.6 million miles and raise $1.75 million...
Epilepsy Foundation and Maryland Elected Officials Champion Seizure Safe School Legislation
Brynleigh’s Act Will Protect 7,900 Children Living with Epilepsy in Maryland LANDOVER, Md. — The Epilepsy Foundation today announced the introduction of Brynleigh’s Act (SB 0225 and HB 0370) in the Maryland legislature. This bill ensures that all...
Epilepsy Foundation Advises Caution Related to Flashing Lights in Soon-to-be-Released Game “Cyberpunk 2077”
According to media reports, the long-awaited game Cyberpunk 2077 (CD Projekt) contains several scenes with excessive strobe/flashing lights and sustained animated imagery that may affect those with photosensitive epilepsy. For those with...
Epilepsy Foundation Applauds TikTok’s Efforts to Address Needs of People with Photosensitive Epilepsy on its Platform
LANDOVER, Md. — TikTok today announced a new accessibility feature on its platform that allows users to skip videos with potential photosensitive content, such as flashing lights or visual patterns. The initial accessibility changes will be rolled...
Pro-Bowler EJ Tackett Donates $10,000 to the Epilepsy Foundation in Support of His Brother Who Lives with Epilepsy
Join Tackett on Twitch on November 12 for Stream for Epilepsy LANDOVER, Md. — To commemorate National Epilepsy Awareness Month, pro-bowler EJ Tackett is presenting the Epilepsy Foundation with a $10,000 donation in support of his 24-year-old...
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for category “Kings’ IDI, London”
Member Profile for Department of International Development (DID), King’s College London
Who Are the Global Top 1%?
2017/01 – King’s International Development Institute (IDI); IDI Working Paper 2017-01; Author(s): Sudhir Anand and Paul Segal - Details
This paper presents the first in-depth analysis of the changing composition of the global income rich and the rising representation of developing countries at the top of the global distribution. We construct global distributions of income between 1988 and 2012 based on both household surveys and the new top incomes data derived from tax records, which better capture the rich who are typically excluded from household surveys.
continue: Who Are the Global Top 1%? (external link)
Seeking outstanding candidates for 3 permanent full-time positions
The Department of International Development is seeking outstanding candidates for the following three permanent full-time positions. Closing date 31 March.
Senior Lecturer/Lecturer in the Sociology or Social Anthropology of Development
Reader/Senior Lecturer in Development Economics
Senior Lecturer/Lecturer in Development Economics
ESRC Grant for ‘Global Poverty and Inequality Dynamics’ in Emerging Economies
The grant was awarded to Andy Sumner, co-director of King’s International Development Institute and former vice president of EADI.
continue: ESRC Grant for ‘Global Poverty and Inequality Dynamics’ in Emerging Economies (external link)
IDI Working Papers
The IDI Working Paper series is an intellectual space open to researchers from the King’s Global Institutes and beyond, to share preliminary research findings and proposed new methodologies and frameworks. IDI Working Papers publish research within the IDI's broad interests.
continue: IDI Working Papers (external link)
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A photographer’s paradise, where ancient monasteries and domineering fortresses overlook every hilltop
HomeEuropeGeorgia
Situated at the crossroads of East and West, Georgia is a land of contrast. For thousands of years, traders and adventurers have crossed through here on the historic Silk Road, and their legacy remains today through the fascinating culture and ancient monuments.
There is much to see on our Georgia trips, from UNESCO-listed churches and monasteries to dramatic gorges silhouetted in front of snow-capped mountains and lush valleys. History is everywhere you turn, from the ancient cave town of Uplistsikhe to Gori, the birthplace of Joseph Stalin. Georgia is also famous for its viticulture and wine, which has been produced here for almost 10,000 years.
Our trips to Georgia offer a genuinely unique and varied experience, giving you the chance to explore Tbilisi, Kutaisi and the wine region of Kakheti, not to mention the attractions on offer in neighbouring Armenia, which include time spent in Yerevan, a visit to the Tatev Monastery and the pagan temple at Garni. Exodus’ Georgia tours are packed full of history and culture, perfect for those who love to immerse themselves in a country’s ancient traditions.
Our travellers rate our Georgia holidays as
3.9 / 5 based on 30 reviews
Georgia Adventure Holidays
Highlights of Georgia & Armenia
A fascinating cultural journey through the heart of the Caucasus
14 Days from CHF2’534
Circumnavigation of the Black Sea
Wander through a wealth of historic sites and architectural treasures, sample local Georgian wines, and cruise through the winding canals of the Danube delta.
14 Days from CHF14’014
Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia & Azerbaijan
A breathtakingly scenic mountainous region separating the Black and Caspian Seas
In focus: Sightseeing in Tbilisi
The historic capital dates back to the 4th century AD and a visit is essential on Georgia trips. Meander around the old town, the ancient sulphur baths and the plentiful art galleries and handicraft markets, all accessible on foot. The main church of Tbilisi, Sioni Cathedral, dates from the 17th century, while the beautifully decorated Great Synagogue was built at the beginning of the 20th century. Walk along Rustaveli Avenue, the main artery of Tbilisi, and see the incredible collection of pre-Christian gold artefacts and jewellery in the Treasury at the Georgian National Museum.
Rising over the hill of St Ilya, The Holy Trinity Cathedral, Tsminda Sameba, is said to be the symbol of new Georgia. It's the highest church in Tbilisi, and its grandiose golden dome can be seen from any point in the city. After strolling around such a concentrated cultural hub, unwind at the Botanical Gardens, former royal pleasure grounds adjoining Fig Gorge, and reward yourself with an aperitif at Cafe Littera in the courtyard garden of the Georgian Writers’ Union.
Take me there: Highlights of Georgia & Armenia
An excellent introduction to both countries that left me wanting to investigate them further.
Margaret Clower, 2019 Highlights of Georgia & Armenia
Don't wait to visit Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Now is the time. This very...
Roselle Beard, 2018 Highlights of Georgia & Armenia
DavidE 2018
Call us on 079 684 96 64
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SC.5.N.1.1: Define a problem, use appropriate reference materials to support scientific understanding, plan and carry out scientific investigations of various types such as: systematic observations, experiments requiring the identification of variables, collecting and organizing data, interpreting data in charts, tables, and graphics, analyze information, make predictions, and defend conclusions.
SC.5.N.1.2: Explain the difference between an experiment and other types of scientific investigation.
SC.5.N.1.3: Recognize and explain the need for repeated experimental trials.
SC.5.N.1.4: Identify a control group and explain its importance in an experiment.
SC.5.N.1.5: Recognize and explain that authentic scientific investigation frequently does not parallel the steps of "the scientific method."
SC.5.N.2: The Characteristics of Scientific Knowledge
SC.5.N.2.1: Recognize and explain that science is grounded in empirical observations that are testable; explanation must always be linked with evidence.
SC.5.N.2.2: Recognize and explain that when scientific investigations are carried out, the evidence produced by those investigations should be replicable by others.
SC.5.E.5: Humans continue to explore Earth's place in space. Gravity and energy influence the formation of galaxies, including our own Milky Way Galaxy, stars, the Solar System, and Earth. Humankind's need to explore continues to lead to the development of knowledge and understanding of our Solar System.
SC.5.E.5.2: Recognize the major common characteristics of all planets and compare/contrast the properties of inner and outer planets.
Comparing Earth and Venus
SC.5.E.5.3: Distinguish among the following objects of the Solar System -- Sun, planets, moons, asteroids, comets -- and identify Earth's position in it.
SC.5.E.7: Humans continue to explore the interactions among water, air, and land. Air and water are in constant motion that results in changing conditions that can be observed over time.
SC.5.E.7.1: Create a model to explain the parts of the water cycle. Water can be a gas, a liquid, or a solid and can go back and forth from one state to another.
Phases of Water
SC.5.E.7.2: Recognize that the ocean is an integral part of the water cycle and is connected to all of Earth's water reservoirs via evaporation and precipitation processes.
Measuring Trees
SC.5.E.7.3: Recognize how air temperature, barometric pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation determine the weather in a particular place and time.
Comparing Climates (Customary)
Observing Weather (Customary)
SC.5.E.7.5: Recognize that some of the weather-related differences, such as temperature and humidity, are found among different environments, such as swamps, deserts, and mountains.
SC.5.E.7.6: Describe characteristics (temperature and precipitation) of different climate zones as they relate to latitude, elevation, and proximity to bodies of water.
SC.5.P.8: Properties of Matter
SC.5.P.8.B: Objects and substances can be classified by their physical and chemical properties. Mass is the amount of matter (or "stuff") in an object. Weight, on the other hand, is the measure of force of attraction (gravitational force) between an object and Earth.
Density Experiment: Slice and Dice
Mineral Identification
SC.5.P.9: Changes in Matter
SC.5.P.9.A: Matter can undergo a variety of changes.
SC.5.P.9.B: Matter can be changed physically or chemically.
SC.5.P.9.1: Investigate and describe that many physical and chemical changes are affected by temperature.
SC.5.P.10: Forms of Energy
SC.5.P.10.B: Energy exists in many forms and has the ability to do work or cause a change.
SC.5.P.10.1: Investigate and describe some basic forms of energy, including light, heat, sound, electrical, chemical, and mechanical.
SC.5.P.10.2: Investigate and explain that energy has the ability to cause motion or create change.
SC.5.P.10.3: Investigate and explain that an electrically-charged object can attract an uncharged object and can either attract or repel another charged object without any contact between the objects.
Charge Launcher
SC.5.P.10.4: Investigate and explain that electrical energy can be transformed into heat, light, and sound energy, as well as the energy of motion.
SC.5.P.11.C: Light waves can travel through a vacuum and through matter.
SC.5.P.11.1: Investigate and illustrate the fact that the flow of electricity requires a closed circuit (a complete loop).
Circuit Builder
SC.5.P.11.2: Identify and classify materials that conduct electricity and materials that do not.
SC.5.P.13.1: Identify familiar forces that cause objects to move, such as pushes or pulls, including gravity acting on falling objects.
SC.5.P.13.2: Investigate and describe that the greater the force applied to it, the greater the change in motion of a given object.
SC.5.P.13.3: Investigate and describe that the more mass an object has, the less effect a given force will have on the object's motion.
SC.5.L.14.B: All plants and animals, including humans, have internal parts and external structures that function to keep them alive and help them grow and reproduce.
Flower Pollination
SC.5.L.14.1: Identify the organs in the human body and describe their functions, including the skin, brain, heart, lungs, stomach, liver, intestines, pancreas, muscles and skeleton, reproductive organs, kidneys, bladder, and sensory organs.
SC.5.L.15.A: Earth is home to a great diversity of living things, but changes in the environment can affect their survival.
Rabbit Population by Season
SC.5.L.17: Interdependence
SC.5.L.17.A: Plants and animals, including humans, interact with and depend upon each other and their environment to satisfy their basic needs.
Honeybee Hive
SC.5.L.17.B: Both human activities and natural events can have major impacts on the environment.
Pond Ecosystem
SC.5.L.17.C: Energy flows from the sun through producers to consumers.
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Posted on August 10, 2016 by Fairborn Daily Herald
My food identity dilemma
Ava Richardson is a New Economy Maryland Fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies and the co-founder of SIStained, an education and sustainability collective. Distributed by www.OtherWords.org.
By Ava Richardson
I’ve tried every specialty health food diet out there. It’s taught me that our knowledge of nutrition is always evolving.
Why do we eat what we eat?
Many of us eat foods that are familiar, convenient, and that simply taste good, without thinking much about why we make the choices we do.
For others — myself included — there’s a constant struggle to determine what’s healthy, both for ourselves and for the planet. The dietary habits we maintain become part of our identities.
But thanks to conflicting information, evolving norms, and endless confusion about what counts as “healthy,” it’s getting harder to settle comfortably into our choices.
I call it my food identity dilemma. And believe me, it’s been a long journey.
I’ve cycled through both veganism and vegetarianism. I dabbled for a time in pescatarianism (eating fish, eggs, and dairy, but no other meats), raw foodism (consuming only raw fruits, vegetables, and legumes), and hardcore locavorism (buying only food grown within a 3-5 hour driving distance), among other diets.
The most challenging — and most rewarding — diet I tried was raw-food veganism. Benefits included clearer skin, a better mood, and a healthier weight, at least for me. But learning to prepare raw vegan food was difficult. So was the fact that virtually all of my friends were omnivores. On social occasions, it was often either “eat before you go” or go hungry.
At other times I tried out the paleo fad, intermittent fasting, high-carb diets, low-carb diets, and so many more. My changing diets have been part of an ever-shifting understanding of what it takes to achieve optimal health while supporting a more sustainable food system.
For more casual eaters, just figuring out what counts as “healthy” is tough enough. I’m always trying stay updated on the latest research, and even I struggle with it.
In a recent New York Times survey, for instance, 71 percent of Americans viewed the ubiquitous granola bar as healthy, compared to just 21 percent of nutritionists. Similar gaps existed for regular granola and foods like frozen yogurt, with the public perceiving them as much healthier than the nutritionists.
Here’s what the nutritionists know that the rest of us may not:
All those foods contain lots of added sugars, which new research suggests are much more problematic than the fats we used to fret about (and which many eaters still do). In fact, many fats are now considered okay in moderation, while others — such as coconut oil or fats from nuts — are even touted as “super foods.”
Even the government, which stuck to the old “food pyramid” for decades, is revisiting its regulations.
The Food and Drug Administration recently announced an update of its years-old nutrition labels to emphasize added sugars and to clarify serving sizes, among other changes. And the agency is cracking down on companies that throw around the term “healthy” for snack foods like those granola bars.
Still, there are debates, like the never-ending quarrel over carbs: the good carbs, the bad carbs, and the unmentionable. Naturally, different diet fads offer conflicting advice about how to include carbs in a healthy, balanced diet.
At times, I have to admit, I became rather pretentious in my quest for a healthy, well-balanced diet. I started thinking my food habits were far superior to those of my peers.
But now I’ve come to appreciate how much we still have to learn about nutrition — me and everyone else. It’s helped me learn to be humble. In the end, my food identity may remain as ever-changing as our understanding of the relationship between food and health.
It’s enlightening, in a way. And occasionally delicious.
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SV, Third Rock back clinical-phase wet AMD biotech
Oct 6, 2017 9:24am
Kevin Starr, partner at Third Rock.
SV Health Investors and Third Rock Ventures have given PanOptica the money to take its lead drug into a phase 1/2 wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) trial. PanOptica plans to start trialling the small molecule anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) eye drop early next year.
Bernardsville, New Jersey-based PanOptica thinks its drug, PAN-90806, has an edge over anti-VEGF biologics already on the market because it is delivered via an eye drop. Notably, the formulation would end the risk of injection-related adverse events and make lifelong, chronic dosing less onerous.
Boosted by $11 million from SV and Third Rock, PanOptica is now equipped to generate clinical data on the optimal dose, regimen and regulatory path for its candidate.
PanOptica has already put an earlier version of PAN-90806 through an early-phase trial in patients with wet AMD. That study left the company encouraged that its drug acts on wet AMD. But, faced with data linking higher doses of the drug to adverse corneal findings, PanOptica opted to drop the formulation in favor of an earlier-stage version of the same anti-VEGF.
Preclinical toxicology studies suggest the new formulation is less likely to trigger corneal problems, such as punctate keratopathy, and therefore can be used at higher doses without causing adverse events. SV and Third Rock have bought into the idea enough to follow up on 2011’s $30 million series A and 2014’s $45 million series B with enough cash for PanOptica to find out how the formulation fares in the clinic.
“This next-generation formulation holds promise for enhanced tolerability across an expanded dose range,” Kevin Starr, partner at Third Rock, said in a statement. “With its demonstrated potency and selectivity, PAN-90806 appears to have potential as an effective topical eye drop treatment for back-of-the-eye diseases such as wet AMD and diabetic retinopathy.”
Starr and his fellow investors have backed a team with considerable ophthalmology experience. Paul Chaney and Martin Wax, M.D., co-founded the company in 2009 with a view to picking up early-stage assets and hustling them through to clinical proof of concept.
Chaney brought the experience he gained during a career that took him to the president position at OSI-Eyetech to the task. Wax’s background includes a stint in academia and, more recently, a VP position in discovery and development at Alcon.
age-related macular degeneration eye disease venture capital (VC) PanOptica SV Health Investors Third Rock Ventures
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