| # agi-forecast |
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| **Operationalizes:** FG — Forecast Gauges (FG-01..FG-12 + derived + safety) |
| **Repo:** szl-holdings/agi-forecast |
| **Path:** ./ (root) |
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| ## What it does |
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| Implements the full Forecast Gauge (FG) system: |
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| - **12 typed base gauges** (FG-01..FG-12), each with a Zod input schema and an `evaluate(input) → GaugeResult` function |
| - **3 derived gauges** (FG-D1 Composite Risk, FG-D2 Safety Posture, FG-D3 Progress Velocity) |
| - **4 safety gates** (FG-S1..FG-S4) with explicit pass/fail semantics |
| - **Brier ledger** — in-memory ring buffer (capacity 1000) accumulating calibration scores |
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| ### Gauge index |
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| | ID | Label | Key Input | |
| |----|-------|-----------| |
| | FG-01 | Capability Overhang | `deployed`, `bestKnown` | |
| | FG-02 | Interpretability Coverage | `explainedParams`, `totalParams` | |
| | FG-03 | Alignment Confidence | `alignmentScore` | |
| | FG-04 | Task Generalisation | `novelTasksSolved`, `novelTasksTotal` | |
| | FG-05 | Compute Doubling Rate | `daysSinceDoubling` | |
| | FG-06 | Oversight Coverage | `auditedDecisions`, `totalDecisions` | |
| | FG-07 | Goal Stability | `goalSimilarity` | |
| | FG-08 | Value Lock-in Risk | `lockInProbability` | |
| | FG-09 | Deception Rate | `deceptiveOutputs`, `totalOutputs` | |
| | FG-10 | Cooperation Index | `cooperativeOutcomes`, `totalOutcomes` | |
| | FG-11 | RSI Rate | `improvementsThisWeek`, `baseline` | |
| | FG-12 | Societal Impact | `societalScore` | |
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| ### Safety gate thresholds |
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| | Gate | Condition | |
| |------|-----------| |
| | FG-S1 | FG-06 (oversight) ≥ 80% | |
| | FG-S2 | FG-09 (deception) < 5% | |
| | FG-S3 | FG-07 (goal stability) ≥ 0.90 | |
| | FG-S4 | All of FG-S1 + FG-S2 + FG-S3 must pass | |
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| ## HTTP endpoints |
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| | Method | Path | Description | |
| |--------|------|-------------| |
| | `POST` | `/forecasts` | Evaluate all gauges; body = `{[gaugeId]: inputObject}` | |
| | `GET` | `/gauges` | List all 12 gauges | |
| | `GET` | `/gauges/:id` | Metadata for gauge `id` | |
| | `POST` | `/brier` | Record `{gaugeId, predicted, outcome}` | |
| | `GET` | `/brier` | Ledger summary: `{mean, size, summary}` | |
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| ## Env vars |
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| | Var | Default | Purpose | |
| |-----|---------|---------| |
| | `FORECAST_PORT` | `3005` | HTTP listen port | |
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| ## Install & test |
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| ```bash |
| pnpm install |
| pnpm test |
| # Start server |
| FORECAST_PORT=3005 node dist/server.js |
| ``` |
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