| | --- |
| | dataset_info: |
| | features: |
| | - name: game_id |
| | dtype: string |
| | - name: receiver_player_id |
| | dtype: string |
| | - name: receiver_player_name |
| | dtype: string |
| | - name: passer_player_id |
| | dtype: string |
| | - name: defteam |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receiving_yards |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: air_yards |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yac |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: tds |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: epa |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: wpa |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: avg_depth |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: catch_rate |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: posteam |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: team_pass_attempts |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: team_air_yards |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: team_epa |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: air_yard_share |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: target_share |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_per_target |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: def_targets_dev |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: def_receptions_dev |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: def_yards_dev |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: def_tds_dev |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: def_epa_dev |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: red_zone_targets |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: end_zone_targets |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: third_down_targets |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: fourth_down_targets |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: high_leverage_targets |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: qb_completions |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: qb_attempts |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: qb_air_yards |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: qb_cpoe |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: qb_comp_pct |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: avg_score_diff |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: avg_quarter |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: adot |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yac_per_reception |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: td_rate |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: explosive_plays |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: first_downs |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: trailing_pct |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: leading_pct |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: wp_var |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: target_share_std |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: surface |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: is_dome |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: is_rain |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: is_snow |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: is_clear |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: temp_f |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: humidity_pct |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: wind_mph |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: success_rate |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: big_play_rate |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: reception_std |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: second_and_long_targets |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: third_and_medium_targets |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: avg_start_yardline |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: avg_target_depth_vs_qb |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_Q1 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_Q2 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_Q3 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_Q4 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_Q1 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_Q2 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_Q3 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_Q4 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: targets_Q1 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: targets_Q2 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: targets_Q3 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: targets_Q4 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: lost_yards_due_to_penalty |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_wp_<25 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_wp_25_45 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_wp_45_55 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_wp_55_75 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_wp_>75 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: yards_wp_NA |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: receptions_wp_<25 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_wp_25_45 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_wp_45_55 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_wp_55_75 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_wp_>75 |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: receptions_wp_NA |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets_wp_<25 |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets_wp_25_45 |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets_wp_45_55 |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets_wp_55_75 |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets_wp_>75 |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: targets_wp_NA |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: home_team |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: away_team |
| | dtype: int64 |
| | - name: pregame_spread |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | - name: pregame_total |
| | dtype: float64 |
| | splits: |
| | - name: full |
| | num_bytes: 3493041 |
| | num_examples: 4308 |
| | download_size: 657697 |
| | dataset_size: 3493041 |
| | configs: |
| | - config_name: default |
| | data_files: |
| | - split: full |
| | path: data/full-* |
| | license: mit |
| | language: |
| | - en |
| | --- |
| | |
| | # NFL Wide Receiver Performance Dataset (2016) |
| |
|
| | ## Dataset Description |
| |
|
| | This dataset contains comprehensive wide receiver performance statistics derived from NFL play-by-play data for the **2016**. It includes game-level metrics, situational targeting patterns, defensive adjustments, and advanced efficiency calculations. |
| |
|
| | ### Dataset Summary |
| |
|
| | - **Season**: 2015 |
| | - **Records**: ~4.31k player-game observations |
| | - **Features**: 100+ columns including: |
| | - Core statistics (targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns) |
| | - Quarter-by-quarter breakdowns |
| | - Win probability bucketed performance |
| | - Defensive strength adjustments |
| | - Situational metrics (red zone, high leverage, down-and-distance) |
| | - Team share metrics (target share, air yards share, WOPR) |
| | - Efficiency metrics (aDOT, yards per target, catch rate) |
| | - Weather and venue conditions |
| |
|
| | ### Supported Tasks |
| |
|
| | - **Receiving Yards Prediction**: Predict receiving yards for upcoming games |
| | - **Target Share Analysis**: Model player opportunity distribution |
| | - **Performance Forecasting**: Project future player performance |
| | - **Matchup Analysis**: Evaluate player-defense matchups |
| |
|
| | ## Dataset Structure |
| |
|
| | ### Data Fields |
| |
|
| | **Key Identifiers:** |
| | - `game_id`: Unique game identifier |
| | - `receiver_player_id`: NFL GSIS player ID |
| | - `receiver_player_name`: Player display name |
| | - `passer_player_id`: Quarterback player ID |
| | - `season`: NFL season year |
| | - `week`: Week number |
| |
|
| | **Core Statistics:** |
| | - `targets`: Total pass attempts targeting the receiver |
| | - `receptions`: Completed receptions |
| | - `receiving_yards`: Total receiving yards |
| | - `tds`: Receiving touchdowns |
| | - `air_yards`: Total air yards on targets |
| | - `yac`: Yards after catch |
| |
|
| | **Quarter Breakdowns:** |
| | - `yards_Q1`, `yards_Q2`, `yards_Q3`, `yards_Q4`: Yards by quarter |
| | - `receptions_Q1-4`: Receptions by quarter |
| | - `targets_Q1-4`: Targets by quarter |
| |
|
| | **Win Probability Buckets:** |
| | - `yards_wp_<25`, `yards_wp_25_45`, etc.: Performance in different game situations |
| | - Similar breakdowns for receptions and targets |
| |
|
| | **Share Metrics:** |
| | - `target_share`: Player's share of team targets |
| | - `air_yards_share`: Player's share of team air yards |
| | - `yard_share`: Player's share of team receiving yards |
| | - `reception_share`: Player's share of team receptions |
| | - `wopr`: Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.7 × target_share + 0.3 × air_yards_share) |
| | |
| | **Efficiency Metrics:** |
| | - `aDOT`: Average depth of target |
| | - `yards_per_target`: Receiving yards per target |
| | - `catch_rate`: Reception percentage |
| | - `yac_per_rec`: Yards after catch per reception |
| | - `explosive_rec_pct`: Percentage of receptions ≥15 yards |
| | - `first_down_pct`: Percentage of receptions resulting in first downs |
| |
|
| | **Defensive Adjustments:** |
| | - `def_targets_dev`: Defense targets allowed vs league average |
| | - `def_receptions_dev`: Defense receptions allowed vs league average |
| | - `def_yards_dev`: Defense yards allowed vs league average |
| | - `def_tds_dev`: Defense TDs allowed vs league average |
| | - `def_epa_dev`: Defense EPA allowed vs league average |
| | - `adj_epa`: Defense-adjusted Expected Points Added |
| | - `adj_epa_per_target`: Defense-adjusted EPA per target |
| |
|
| | **Situational Metrics:** |
| | - `red_zone_targets`: Targets inside the 20-yard line |
| | - `end_zone_targets`: Targets in the end zone |
| | - `third_down_targets`: Targets on 3rd down |
| | - `fourth_down_targets`: Targets on 4th down |
| | - `high_leverage_targets`: Targets in high-leverage situations (WP < 0.25 or > 0.75) |
| | - `red_zone_share`: Player's share of team red zone targets |
| | - `third_down_share`: Player's share of team 3rd down targets |
| |
|
| | **Game Context:** |
| | - `posteam`: Player's team (encoded 1-32) |
| | - `defteam`: Opposing defense (encoded 1-32) |
| | - `home_team`: Home team (encoded 1-32) |
| | - `away_team`: Away team (encoded 1-32) |
| | - `home_flag`: 0 if home, 1 if away |
| | - `pregame_spread`: Betting line point spread |
| | - `pregame_total`: Betting line total points |
| | - `avg_score_diff`: Average score differential when targeted |
| | - `avg_quarter`: Average quarter when targeted |
| | - `trailing_pct`: Percentage of targets while trailing |
| | - `leading_pct`: Percentage of targets while leading |
| |
|
| | **Weather & Venue:** |
| | - `surface`: Playing surface type (encoded 0-6) |
| | - `is_dome`: 1 if indoor, 0 if outdoor |
| | - `is_rain`: 1 if rainy conditions |
| | - `is_snow`: 1 if snowy conditions |
| | - `is_clear`: 1 if clear conditions |
| | - `temp_f`: Temperature in Fahrenheit |
| | - `humidity_pct`: Humidity percentage |
| | - `wind_mph`: Wind speed in miles per hour |
| |
|
| | **QB Context:** |
| | - `qb_completions`: Quarterback's completions that game |
| | - `qb_attempts`: Quarterback's attempts that game |
| | - `qb_comp_pct`: Quarterback's completion percentage |
| | - `qb_air_yards`: Quarterback's average air yards |
| | - `qb_cpoe`: Quarterback's completion percentage over expected |
| |
|
| | **Advanced Metrics:** |
| | - `epa`: Expected Points Added |
| | - `wpa`: Win Probability Added |
| | - `success_rate`: Percentage of successful plays (EPA > 0 or YPT > 0.5) |
| | - `big_play_rate`: Percentage of plays ≥20 yards |
| | - `explosive_plays`: Count of plays ≥20 yards |
| | - `first_downs`: First downs generated |
| | - `consistency_score`: mean_adj_epa / std_adj_epa |
| | - `inverse_volatility`: 1 / std_adj_epa |
| | - `season_adj_epa_per_target`: Season-level defense-adjusted EPA per target |
| | - `wp_var`: Variance in win probability across targets |
| | - `target_share_std`: Standard deviation of target share across games |
| |
|
| | ### Data Splits |
| |
|
| | This dataset does not include pre-defined splits. Users should create their own train/validation/test splits based on their use case: |
| | - **Time-based split**: Use early weeks for training, later weeks for validation/testing |
| | - **Cross-validation**: K-fold cross-validation across games |
| | - **Season holdout**: Train on this season, test on future seasons |
| |
|
| | ### Dataset Creation |
| |
|
| | #### Source Data |
| |
|
| | Raw play-by-play data sourced from [nflverse](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp), which aggregates official NFL data with additional features. |
| |
|
| | #### Data Processing |
| |
|
| | The dataset was created through two complementary processing pipelines: |
| |
|
| | 1. **Pipeline A (Defensive Adjustments)**: |
| | - Calculates defense-adjusted performance metrics |
| | - Adds situational targeting patterns |
| | - Includes QB context and team-level statistics |
| | - Incorporates weather and venue conditions |
| |
|
| | 2. **Pipeline B (Temporal & Situational)**: |
| | - Generates quarter-by-quarter breakdowns |
| | - Creates win probability bucketed statistics |
| | - Computes team share metrics and WOPR |
| | - Calculates season-level consistency metrics |
| |
|
| | Both pipelines were merged to create a comprehensive feature set. |
| |
|
| | ## Considerations for Using the Data |
| |
|
| | ### Social Impact |
| |
|
| | This dataset is intended for: |
| | - Sports analytics and research |
| | - Fantasy football decision-making |
| | - Educational purposes in machine learning and sports statistics |
| |
|
| | **Not intended for:** |
| | - Real-money gambling (use responsibly) |
| | - Player evaluation for contract negotiations |
| | - Any decision-making that could impact player careers |
| |
|
| | ### Discussion of Biases |
| |
|
| | - **Opportunity bias**: Statistics heavily dependent on team offensive scheme and QB quality |
| | - **Injury data**: Dataset does not account for injuries that may affect performance |
| | - **Sample size**: Players with limited playing time have less reliable statistics |
| | - **Game script**: Performance metrics influenced by whether team is winning/losing |
| | - **Strength of schedule**: Not all defensive matchups are equal, though some adjustment is included |
| |
|
| | ### Limitations |
| |
|
| | - **Historical data only**: Does not predict future performance definitively |
| | - **Missing context**: Does not include play design, route running, or other qualitative factors |
| | - **Weather parsing**: Temperature/wind/humidity may be missing or inaccurate for some games |
| | - **Roster changes**: Does not account for mid-season team changes or trades |
| | - **Playoff games**: May or may not include playoff data depending on the year |
| |
|
| | ## Additional Information |
| |
|
| | ### Acknowledgments |
| |
|
| | - **Data Source**: [nflverse/nflverse-data](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp) |
| | - **AI Assistance**: Code development assisted by Claude (Anthropic) |
| | - **Course**: CMU 24-679: Designing and Deploying AI/ML Systems |
