|
|
--- |
|
|
dataset_info: |
|
|
features: |
|
|
- name: game_id |
|
|
dtype: string |
|
|
- name: receiver_player_id |
|
|
dtype: string |
|
|
- name: receiver_player_name |
|
|
dtype: string |
|
|
- name: passer_player_id |
|
|
dtype: string |
|
|
- name: defteam |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receiving_yards |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: air_yards |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yac |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: tds |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: epa |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: wpa |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: avg_depth |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: catch_rate |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: posteam |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: team_pass_attempts |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: team_air_yards |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: team_epa |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: air_yard_share |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: target_share |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_per_target |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: def_targets_dev |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: def_receptions_dev |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: def_yards_dev |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: def_tds_dev |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: def_epa_dev |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: red_zone_targets |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: end_zone_targets |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: third_down_targets |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: fourth_down_targets |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: high_leverage_targets |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: qb_completions |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: qb_attempts |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: qb_air_yards |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: qb_cpoe |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: qb_comp_pct |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: avg_score_diff |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: avg_quarter |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: adot |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yac_per_reception |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: td_rate |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: explosive_plays |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: first_downs |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: trailing_pct |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: leading_pct |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: wp_var |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: target_share_std |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: surface |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: is_dome |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: is_rain |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: is_snow |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: is_clear |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: temp_f |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: humidity_pct |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: wind_mph |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: success_rate |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: big_play_rate |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: reception_std |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: second_and_long_targets |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: third_and_medium_targets |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: avg_start_yardline |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: avg_target_depth_vs_qb |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_Q1 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_Q2 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_Q3 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_Q4 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_Q1 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_Q2 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_Q3 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_Q4 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: targets_Q1 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: targets_Q2 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: targets_Q3 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: targets_Q4 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: lost_yards_due_to_penalty |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_wp_<25 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_wp_25_45 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_wp_45_55 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_wp_55_75 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_wp_>75 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: yards_wp_NA |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_wp_<25 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_wp_25_45 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_wp_45_55 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_wp_55_75 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_wp_>75 |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: receptions_wp_NA |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets_wp_<25 |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets_wp_25_45 |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets_wp_45_55 |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets_wp_55_75 |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets_wp_>75 |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: targets_wp_NA |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: home_team |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: away_team |
|
|
dtype: int64 |
|
|
- name: pregame_spread |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
- name: pregame_total |
|
|
dtype: float64 |
|
|
splits: |
|
|
- name: full |
|
|
num_bytes: 3743489 |
|
|
num_examples: 4616 |
|
|
download_size: 690936 |
|
|
dataset_size: 3743489 |
|
|
configs: |
|
|
- config_name: default |
|
|
data_files: |
|
|
- split: full |
|
|
path: data/full-* |
|
|
license: mit |
|
|
language: |
|
|
- en |
|
|
--- |
|
|
|
|
|
# NFL Wide Receiver Performance Dataset (2021) |
|
|
|
|
|
## Dataset Description |
|
|
|
|
|
This dataset contains comprehensive wide receiver performance statistics derived from NFL play-by-play data for the **2021**. It includes game-level metrics, situational targeting patterns, defensive adjustments, and advanced efficiency calculations. |
|
|
|
|
|
### Dataset Summary |
|
|
|
|
|
- **Season**: 2021 |
|
|
- **Records**: ~4.31k player-game observations |
|
|
- **Features**: 100+ columns including: |
|
|
- Core statistics (targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns) |
|
|
- Quarter-by-quarter breakdowns |
|
|
- Win probability bucketed performance |
|
|
- Defensive strength adjustments |
|
|
- Situational metrics (red zone, high leverage, down-and-distance) |
|
|
- Team share metrics (target share, air yards share, WOPR) |
|
|
- Efficiency metrics (aDOT, yards per target, catch rate) |
|
|
- Weather and venue conditions |
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|
|
|
|
### Supported Tasks |
|
|
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|
|
- **Receiving Yards Prediction**: Predict receiving yards for upcoming games |
|
|
- **Target Share Analysis**: Model player opportunity distribution |
|
|
- **Performance Forecasting**: Project future player performance |
|
|
- **Matchup Analysis**: Evaluate player-defense matchups |
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|
|
|
|
## Dataset Structure |
|
|
|
|
|
### Data Fields |
|
|
|
|
|
**Key Identifiers:** |
|
|
- `game_id`: Unique game identifier |
|
|
- `receiver_player_id`: NFL GSIS player ID |
|
|
- `receiver_player_name`: Player display name |
|
|
- `passer_player_id`: Quarterback player ID |
|
|
- `season`: NFL season year |
|
|
- `week`: Week number |
|
|
|
|
|
**Core Statistics:** |
|
|
- `targets`: Total pass attempts targeting the receiver |
|
|
- `receptions`: Completed receptions |
|
|
- `receiving_yards`: Total receiving yards |
|
|
- `tds`: Receiving touchdowns |
|
|
- `air_yards`: Total air yards on targets |
|
|
- `yac`: Yards after catch |
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|
|
|
|
**Quarter Breakdowns:** |
|
|
- `yards_Q1`, `yards_Q2`, `yards_Q3`, `yards_Q4`: Yards by quarter |
|
|
- `receptions_Q1-4`: Receptions by quarter |
|
|
- `targets_Q1-4`: Targets by quarter |
|
|
|
|
|
**Win Probability Buckets:** |
|
|
- `yards_wp_<25`, `yards_wp_25_45`, etc.: Performance in different game situations |
|
|
- Similar breakdowns for receptions and targets |
|
|
|
|
|
**Share Metrics:** |
|
|
- `target_share`: Player's share of team targets |
|
|
- `air_yards_share`: Player's share of team air yards |
|
|
- `yard_share`: Player's share of team receiving yards |
|
|
- `reception_share`: Player's share of team receptions |
|
|
- `wopr`: Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.7 × target_share + 0.3 × air_yards_share) |
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|
|
|
|
**Efficiency Metrics:** |
|
|
- `aDOT`: Average depth of target |
|
|
- `yards_per_target`: Receiving yards per target |
|
|
- `catch_rate`: Reception percentage |
|
|
- `yac_per_rec`: Yards after catch per reception |
|
|
- `explosive_rec_pct`: Percentage of receptions ≥15 yards |
|
|
- `first_down_pct`: Percentage of receptions resulting in first downs |
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|
|
|
|
**Defensive Adjustments:** |
|
|
- `def_targets_dev`: Defense targets allowed vs league average |
|
|
- `def_receptions_dev`: Defense receptions allowed vs league average |
|
|
- `def_yards_dev`: Defense yards allowed vs league average |
|
|
- `def_tds_dev`: Defense TDs allowed vs league average |
|
|
- `def_epa_dev`: Defense EPA allowed vs league average |
|
|
- `adj_epa`: Defense-adjusted Expected Points Added |
|
|
- `adj_epa_per_target`: Defense-adjusted EPA per target |
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|
|
|
|
**Situational Metrics:** |
|
|
- `red_zone_targets`: Targets inside the 20-yard line |
|
|
- `end_zone_targets`: Targets in the end zone |
|
|
- `third_down_targets`: Targets on 3rd down |
|
|
- `fourth_down_targets`: Targets on 4th down |
|
|
- `high_leverage_targets`: Targets in high-leverage situations (WP < 0.25 or > 0.75) |
|
|
- `red_zone_share`: Player's share of team red zone targets |
|
|
- `third_down_share`: Player's share of team 3rd down targets |
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|
|
|
|
**Game Context:** |
|
|
- `posteam`: Player's team (encoded 1-32) |
|
|
- `defteam`: Opposing defense (encoded 1-32) |
|
|
- `home_team`: Home team (encoded 1-32) |
|
|
- `away_team`: Away team (encoded 1-32) |
|
|
- `home_flag`: 0 if home, 1 if away |
|
|
- `pregame_spread`: Betting line point spread |
|
|
- `pregame_total`: Betting line total points |
|
|
- `avg_score_diff`: Average score differential when targeted |
|
|
- `avg_quarter`: Average quarter when targeted |
|
|
- `trailing_pct`: Percentage of targets while trailing |
|
|
- `leading_pct`: Percentage of targets while leading |
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|
|
|
|
**Weather & Venue:** |
|
|
- `surface`: Playing surface type (encoded 0-6) |
|
|
- `is_dome`: 1 if indoor, 0 if outdoor |
|
|
- `is_rain`: 1 if rainy conditions |
|
|
- `is_snow`: 1 if snowy conditions |
|
|
- `is_clear`: 1 if clear conditions |
|
|
- `temp_f`: Temperature in Fahrenheit |
|
|
- `humidity_pct`: Humidity percentage |
|
|
- `wind_mph`: Wind speed in miles per hour |
|
|
|
|
|
**QB Context:** |
|
|
- `qb_completions`: Quarterback's completions that game |
|
|
- `qb_attempts`: Quarterback's attempts that game |
|
|
- `qb_comp_pct`: Quarterback's completion percentage |
|
|
- `qb_air_yards`: Quarterback's average air yards |
|
|
- `qb_cpoe`: Quarterback's completion percentage over expected |
|
|
|
|
|
**Advanced Metrics:** |
|
|
- `epa`: Expected Points Added |
|
|
- `wpa`: Win Probability Added |
|
|
- `success_rate`: Percentage of successful plays (EPA > 0 or YPT > 0.5) |
|
|
- `big_play_rate`: Percentage of plays ≥20 yards |
|
|
- `explosive_plays`: Count of plays ≥20 yards |
|
|
- `first_downs`: First downs generated |
|
|
- `consistency_score`: mean_adj_epa / std_adj_epa |
|
|
- `inverse_volatility`: 1 / std_adj_epa |
|
|
- `season_adj_epa_per_target`: Season-level defense-adjusted EPA per target |
|
|
- `wp_var`: Variance in win probability across targets |
|
|
- `target_share_std`: Standard deviation of target share across games |
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|
|
|
### Data Splits |
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|
|
This dataset does not include pre-defined splits. Users should create their own train/validation/test splits based on their use case: |
|
|
- **Time-based split**: Use early weeks for training, later weeks for validation/testing |
|
|
- **Cross-validation**: K-fold cross-validation across games |
|
|
- **Season holdout**: Train on this season, test on future seasons |
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|
|
### Dataset Creation |
|
|
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|
|
#### Source Data |
|
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|
|
Raw play-by-play data sourced from [nflverse](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp), which aggregates official NFL data with additional features. |
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|
|
#### Data Processing |
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|
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|
|
The dataset was created through two complementary processing pipelines: |
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|
|
1. **Pipeline A (Defensive Adjustments)**: |
|
|
- Calculates defense-adjusted performance metrics |
|
|
- Adds situational targeting patterns |
|
|
- Includes QB context and team-level statistics |
|
|
- Incorporates weather and venue conditions |
|
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|
|
|
2. **Pipeline B (Temporal & Situational)**: |
|
|
- Generates quarter-by-quarter breakdowns |
|
|
- Creates win probability bucketed statistics |
|
|
- Computes team share metrics and WOPR |
|
|
- Calculates season-level consistency metrics |
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|
|
Both pipelines were merged to create a comprehensive feature set. |
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|
|
## Considerations for Using the Data |
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|
|
### Social Impact |
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|
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|
|
This dataset is intended for: |
|
|
- Sports analytics and research |
|
|
- Fantasy football decision-making |
|
|
- Educational purposes in machine learning and sports statistics |
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|
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|
|
**Not intended for:** |
|
|
- Real-money gambling (use responsibly) |
|
|
- Player evaluation for contract negotiations |
|
|
- Any decision-making that could impact player careers |
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|
|
### Discussion of Biases |
|
|
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|
|
- **Opportunity bias**: Statistics heavily dependent on team offensive scheme and QB quality |
|
|
- **Injury data**: Dataset does not account for injuries that may affect performance |
|
|
- **Sample size**: Players with limited playing time have less reliable statistics |
|
|
- **Game script**: Performance metrics influenced by whether team is winning/losing |
|
|
- **Strength of schedule**: Not all defensive matchups are equal, though some adjustment is included |
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|
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### Limitations |
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|
|
- **Historical data only**: Does not predict future performance definitively |
|
|
- **Missing context**: Does not include play design, route running, or other qualitative factors |
|
|
- **Weather parsing**: Temperature/wind/humidity may be missing or inaccurate for some games |
|
|
- **Roster changes**: Does not account for mid-season team changes or trades |
|
|
- **Playoff games**: May or may not include playoff data depending on the year |
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|
|
## Additional Information |
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|
|
### Acknowledgments |
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|
|
- **Data Source**: [nflverse/nflverse-data](https://github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data/releases/tag/pbp) |
|
|
- **AI Assistance**: Code development assisted by Claude (Anthropic) |
|
|
- **Course**: CMU 24-679: Designing and Deploying AI/ML Systems |
