bind2_1 results-only card (causal evidence, frozen NULL + dual-verdict, limited effective depth; no weights/code/config/corpus)
fa7592a verified | pretty_name: "bind2_1 — binding-architecture research model (results-only card)" | |
| language: | |
| - en | |
| tags: | |
| - babylm | |
| - state-tracking | |
| - compositional-generalization | |
| - causal-analysis | |
| - research-log | |
| - negative-results | |
| # bind2_1 — a binding-architecture research model (results-only card) | |
| **Results-only card. No downloadable artifact.** No weights, no code, no configuration, no training | |
| corpus, and no generator are published for `bind2_1`. This card reports what the model is, what was | |
| tested, and what the results mean. The numbers below are complete as reported; what is withheld is | |
| tooling and weights, not results. See [Why no weights](#why-there-are-no-weights) for the reason. | |
| `bind2_1` is one member of the **bind-evolution** line — a small-model architecture program for | |
| **compositional state tracking** at BabyLM 2026 Strict-Small scale. For the full falsification | |
| timeline and how the members relate, see the narrative hub | |
| [`SecludedCorner/bind-evolution`](https://huggingface.co/SecludedCorner/bind-evolution). | |
| --- | |
| ## Value at a glance | |
| `bind2_1` was put through a **pre-registered campaign** — thresholds and the judgment script frozen | |
| before any data existed — to separate two questions that are usually conflated: *is the mechanism | |
| causally real at depth?* and *does its advantage grow with depth?* The campaign returned a rare and | |
| useful combination: | |
| | what was asked | frozen result | | |
| |---|---| | |
| | Does the system discriminate on the hard, state-requiring items? | **Yes.** Pooled deep accuracy **85.83** vs every learned control at chance (~17); a **~69-point** margin. | | |
| | Is that behavior *caused* by the mechanism? | **Yes.** Lesioning the state pathway removes **99.3%** of the advantage; interchange patching flips **96.4%** of answers to the donor's holder. | | |
| | Does the advantage hold or grow with depth (the pre-registered criterion)? | **No — frozen verdict NULL.** The margin shrinks across depth; the NULL stands permanently. | | |
| | What did the NULL actually reveal? | **Limited effective depth** — a concrete, measurable architectural target, not a rhetorical one. | | |
| | Does more scale dissolve the effect? | **No.** Across a ~6× parameter ladder, the standard controls never leave their floor — the form change is principle-grade, not a small-model artifact. | | |
| The value of this member is not a leaderboard number. It is a **cleanly separated causal result and a | |
| frozen NULL**, published at the same resolution, so that a reader can trust exactly what was and was | |
| not established. | |
| --- | |
| ## What `bind2_1` is | |
| A from-scratch binding architecture for compositional state tracking (tracking "who holds what" as a | |
| narrative proceeds), built at **BabyLM 2026 Strict-Small scale (~24M parameters)**. It is the | |
| successor mechanism to `bind2_0` | |
| ([`SecludedCorner/bind2_0`](https://huggingface.co/SecludedCorner/bind2_0), | |
| weights + code published there). This card describes results only; the mechanism's internals are not | |
| disclosed here. | |
| Unlike a general language-model entry, `bind2_1` was not evaluated as a single trained checkpoint. | |
| It was evaluated as a **campaign**: a frozen synthetic diagnostic exam (a narrative ladder of | |
| increasing binding depth), a teacher-forced readout, and a fixed roster of learned control and | |
| ablation arms trained under identical conditions so that any advantage can be attributed to the | |
| architecture rather than to the data or the training budget. | |
| --- | |
| ## What was tested | |
| A **10-arm campaign, 5 seeds per arm**, with the success thresholds and the entire judgment script | |
| **frozen before any data existed**. The frozen gate was an AND over five criteria. The exam is a | |
| synthetic diagnostic ladder whose deep rungs (labelled R3–R6 below, corresponding to operation depth | |
| 3 through 6) require genuine state tracking; the shallow rungs are solvable by shortcut and are | |
| excluded from the claim by design. | |
| Pre-registered decision parameters (frozen): | |
| - **Primary endpoint** = pooled deep accuracy, micro-averaged over depth rungs R3–R6. | |
| - **Minimum effect of interest (SESOI)** = 5.0 percentage points on the primary endpoint. | |
| - **Anchors** = a scrambled negative control (destroys the input structure), an oracle upper bound | |
| (has perfect state access), chance, and an *audited shortcut ceiling* (the best score any | |
| state-blind strategy could reach). | |
| --- | |
| ## Results | |
| ### 1. Discrimination — PASS | |
| The full system scored **85.83** pooled deep accuracy. Every one of the seven learned control arms | |
| sat at chance (≈16.5–17.5; chance = 16.98) — a **~69-point** margin over each control, on all 5 seeds, | |
| against the pre-registered 5-point minimum effect. The scrambled negative control scored *below* | |
| chance (12.67); the oracle upper bound scored 99.92. The audited shortcut ceiling was ≤19.69 pooled; | |
| the system exceeds it by **~66 points**. The advantage is not reachable by any state-blind shortcut. | |
| ### 2. Causality — PASS | |
| The discrimination is *caused* by the mechanism, established two independent ways: | |
| - **State-lesion (necessity):** removing the mechanism's state pathway removes **99.3%** of the | |
| deep-rung advantage, while non-query language-modeling perplexity stays flat (the lesion is | |
| targeted, not a general degradation). | |
| - **Interchange intervention (sufficiency):** patching the state from a donor context flips **96.4%** | |
| of answers to the donor context's holder, with residual specificity **1.0**. | |
| Both replicate on all 5 seeds. A bypassed or spurious module cannot carry 99.3% of an effect; the | |
| deep-rung behavior is carried by the mechanism, necessarily and sufficiently. | |
| ### 3. The pre-registered depth criterion — FAILED → frozen verdict NULL | |
| One pre-registered criterion required the depth-interaction margin to **hold or grow with depth**. | |
| The observed per-rung margins instead *shrink* across the four deep rungs: | |
| > R3 **73.3** → R4 **74.5** → R5 **66.5** → R6 **60.3** points. | |
| The pre-registration had labelled a shrinking margin a "bypass" signal, so the AND-gate returns | |
| **NULL**. **This frozen verdict stands permanently** and is never re-labeled PASS. Publishing it at | |
| full resolution — alongside the passing causal results — is the point. | |
| ### 4. The autopsy (recorded, not used to overturn the NULL) | |
| Adversarial post-hoc analysis found the failed criterion was **ceiling-confounded**: because chance | |
| itself falls as depth increases, only a near-lossless system (like the oracle, which passes it) could | |
| possibly satisfy it; a mechanism already starting near 96% at shallow depth has no room to *grow* its | |
| margin. This is a **design-time specification error**, recorded honestly as exactly that — it is not | |
| used to modify the frozen verdict. Separately, the "bypass" *interpretation* of the NULL is refuted | |
| by the causal results: the deepest rung (72.8) sits ~57 points above the audited shortcut ceiling | |
| (≤15.5), which a bypassed module could not produce. | |
| ### 5. The real finding — limited effective depth | |
| The mechanism's engagement **decays gracefully with depth** (≈95% → 69%) while the oracle stays | |
| ≈100%. In plain terms: depth-robust binding *is* achievable on this task, and the learned mechanism | |
| does not fully achieve it. That gap is a **concrete, measurable architectural target** — the most | |
| useful thing the NULL bought. | |
| --- | |
| ## The dual-verdict structure (stated explicitly) | |
| Two verdicts exist for `bind2_1`. They answer **different questions** and are **never merged**: | |
| 1. **The original pre-registered verdict is NULL, permanently.** Criteria and judgment were frozen | |
| before data; the depth criterion failed; the AND-gate returns NULL. Re-labeling it PASS after | |
| seeing the data would be criterion-shopping, which pre-registration exists to make impossible. | |
| The autopsy above is recorded *alongside* this verdict; it does not modify it. | |
| 2. **A corrected-criterion confirmatory run is a separate, second question.** A corrected criterion | |
| (per-rung margin above the pre-registered minimum effect, and deepest-rung accuracy far above the | |
| audited shortcut ceiling) was frozen on **2026-07-15, before touching five held-back seeds** — | |
| those seeds played no role in designing it. The confirmatory rerun on those untouched seeds landed | |
| the same day: **CONFIRMATORY PASS.** Per-rung margins on the fresh seeds — 73.3 / 74.6 / 66.9 / | |
| 59.4 points — replicate the original seeds almost exactly; the deepest rung scores 72.7 against a | |
| 31.0 shortcut bar; and the causal lesion battery replicates on all five unseen-seed checkpoints | |
| (99.30% of the deep advantage removed by the state lesion). This answers "does the corrected | |
| criterion hold on fresh seeds?" (yes). It **cannot** retroactively change verdict #1. | |
| One procedural note, disclosed in full: the judgment script as originally frozen expected control | |
| arms the confirmatory design never scheduled and exited without scoring; that output is preserved | |
| untouched, and the confirmatory verdict comes from a plumbing-fixed variant whose criteria are | |
| byte-identical to the frozen ones, adversarially reviewed before unblinding. | |
| --- | |
| ## Does parameter scale alone dissolve the gap? (No) | |
| The most compute-starved test in the program asked whether more parameters simply wash the form | |
| change out. The standard control architectures were re-trained across a **parameter ladder spanning | |
| roughly 6×** (from ~24M up to a matched ~145M configuration). On **every** claim-bearing deep rung, | |
| at **every** scale, the controls stayed on their floor — none crossed the discrimination bar, even | |
| when given up to **10×** the campaign's training budget at the smallest and largest scales (3.3× at | |
| the two intermediate scales). | |
| The controls neither climb toward the threshold nor decay toward chance as they grow; they sit on a | |
| **fixed, scale-invariant plateau**. Reading: the form change observed at small scale is | |
| **principle-grade** — it is not a small-model sample-efficiency artifact that more parameters would | |
| dissolve. The claim stays **bounded to the tested budget × scale box**, with no extrapolation to | |
| unlimited parameters (the largest level was measured at a matched ~145M configuration; the span is | |
| stated as ~6×). | |
| --- | |
| ## Numbers | |
| ### Mechanism axis (frozen ladder, synthetic diagnostic exam, teacher-forced readout; accuracy %, mean ± SD, n = 5 seeds per arm) | |
| The seven learned control/ablation arms are **anonymized here (A–G)**; their internal identities and | |
| configurations are part of the withheld tooling. The negative-control, upper-bound, chance, and | |
| ceiling rows are as frozen. Depth rungs R3–R6 are the claim-eligible deep tiers; shallow rungs R0–R2 | |
| are shortcut-reachable by design and intentionally not tabled. | |
| | arm | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | pooled deep (R3–R6) | | |
| |---|---|---|---|---|---| | |
| | **the full system** | 96.00 ± 0.00 | 92.90 ± 0.06 | 81.58 ± 0.14 | 72.82 ± 0.21 | **85.83 ± 0.05** | | |
| | learned control A | 21.38 ± 0.32 | 17.28 ± 1.22 | 15.10 ± 1.40 | 13.75 ± 1.17 | 16.88 ± 0.14 | | |
| | learned control B | 22.30 ± 2.06 | 18.85 ± 1.52 | 14.53 ± 1.48 | 12.53 ± 0.54 | 17.05 ± 0.72 | | |
| | learned control C | 21.93 ± 2.01 | 16.48 ± 0.99 | 15.68 ± 1.41 | 12.03 ± 1.14 | 16.53 ± 1.11 | | |
| | learned control D | 22.05 ± 0.69 | 18.32 ± 1.38 | 14.35 ± 0.90 | 12.17 ± 0.26 | 16.73 ± 0.72 | | |
| | learned control E | 23.43 ± 1.37 | 19.37 ± 1.86 | 14.67 ± 1.25 | 12.35 ± 1.13 | 17.46 ± 0.57 | | |
| | learned control F | 22.65 ± 1.46 | 18.40 ± 1.22 | 15.07 ± 0.75 | 12.47 ± 1.11 | 17.15 ± 0.50 | | |
| | learned control G | 21.68 ± 0.89 | 18.60 ± 1.78 | 14.40 ± 0.78 | 12.90 ± 1.38 | 16.89 ± 0.67 | | |
| | scrambled negative control | 16.05 ± 0.07 | 14.45 ± 0.07 | 11.25 ± 0.15 | 8.95 ± 0.14 | 12.67 ± 0.05 | | |
| | oracle upper bound | 99.95 ± 0.07 | 100.00 ± 0.00 | 99.90 ± 0.10 | 99.85 ± 0.14 | 99.92 ± 0.04 | | |
| | *chance* | 22.50 | 18.33 | 14.58 | 12.50 | 16.98 | | |
| | *audited zero-state shortcut ceiling* | ≤25.38 | ≤20.50 | ≤17.38 | ≤15.50 | ≤19.69 | | |
| **Causal results (frozen gate):** state-lesion kill = **99.3%** of the deep-rung advantage with | |
| non-query perplexity flat; interchange flip = **96.4%**; residual specificity = **1.0**; all 5 seeds | |
| pass. | |
| **Depth-interaction margins (the failed pre-registered criterion):** R3 73.3 / R4 74.5 / R5 66.5 / | |
| R6 60.3 points. | |
| --- | |
| ## Why there are no weights | |
| The headline number is a **teacher-forced readout on a synthetic diagnostic corpus** (not BabyLM | |
| data), and a standard free-running export does **not** reproduce it. Publishing weights that cannot | |
| reproduce their own headline would be misleading — so this stage ships as **numbers and narrative | |
| only**. The frozen pre-registration, the full decomposition, and the per-item results are on record; | |
| the numbers reported here are complete. What is withheld is tooling and weights, not results. | |
| --- | |
| ## What this is — and is not | |
| - **A causal-mechanism result plus a frozen NULL**, both pre-registered and published at the same | |
| resolution. It is *not* a general language-model entry and *not* a natural-language transfer claim. | |
| - **The frozen NULL is permanent.** The confirmatory PASS is a separate, second question and does | |
| not — and cannot — overturn it. | |
| - **Diagnostic, teacher-forced, synthetic exam.** The 85.83 is a depth-diagnostic capability score, | |
| not an official-benchmark score. | |
| - **Architecture attribution is clean by design** — the advantage rests on seven learned controls | |
| trained under identical conditions, plus the ~6× parameter-scale scan above; it is not a data or | |
| budget artifact. | |
| - **Single-hardware program.** Every result was produced on one 8 GB laptop-class GPU; single seeds | |
| were used where five were wanted, and budgets were smaller than a lab's. This is disclosed as a | |
| constraint on iteration rate, not on the frozen verdicts. | |
| The causally-verified mechanism was subsequently carried to the official entity-tracking question | |
| form as the extension `bind2_1e`; that separate result, its scope, and its caveats are documented in | |
| the [bind-evolution hub](https://huggingface.co/SecludedCorner/bind-evolution) — not here. | |
| This is part of a research program that we hope to develop toward a serious entry in a future | |
| BabyLM cycle; we **aim to place** in 2027. No ranking or superiority claim is made here. | |
| --- | |
| ## How to cite | |
| Cite this member card, pinned to the commit SHA of the revision you are citing (the authoritative SHA | |
| is stamped on this card as a dated addendum at publish time). Do not cite the bind-evolution hub as a | |
| result source — it is a narrative and navigation hub. Naming: the member id is **`bind2_1`**; a bare | |
| `bind2` is never a repository or artifact name — the family is referred to in prose only. | |
| **Related:** [`SecludedCorner/bind-evolution`](https://huggingface.co/SecludedCorner/bind-evolution) | |
| (the falsification timeline) · | |
| [`SecludedCorner/bind2_0`](https://huggingface.co/SecludedCorner/bind2_0) | |
| (the predecessor, weights + code). | |