CasualLab/artifacts/simulation/simulation_metadata.json

{
  "all_treated_budget_scale": 1.0,
  "analysis_rows": 192,
  "analysis_share": 1.0,
  "assignment_seed": 202503,
  "budget": 5000.0,
  "budget_feasible": true,
  "budget_scale": 1.0,
  "config": {
    "base_demand": 2.8677823154776916,
    "base_fare": 22.475,
    "base_supply": 2.222531294495211,
    "base_wait_minutes": 5.0,
    "budget": 5000.0,
    "capacity_per_driver": 1.35,
    "demand_noise_sd": 0.06,
    "design": {
      "budget": 5000.0,
      "cluster_size": 2,
      "n_clusters": 2,
      "name": "geo_cluster",
      "seed": 202503,
      "treatment_duration": 4,
      "treatment_probability": 0.5,
      "treatment_saturation": 1.0,
      "washout_periods": 0
    },
    "direct_demand_effect": 0.16,
    "direct_supply_effect": 0.1,
    "discount_rate": 0.1,
    "driver_mobility": 0.06,
    "incentive_per_driver": 1.5,
    "individuals_per_cell": 100,
    "matching_efficiency": 0.94,
    "n_periods": 48,
    "n_zones": 4,
    "operating_cost_per_trip": 8.0,
    "periods_per_day": 24,
    "persistence": 0.25,
    "reference_incentive_per_driver": 1.5,
    "rider_substitution": 0.04,
    "rider_value": 28.0,
    "seed": 202503,
    "spillover_strength": 0.15,
    "supply_noise_sd": 0.05,
    "time_pattern_strength": 0.22,
    "treatment_version": "bundled",
    "wait_disutility_per_minute": 0.25,
    "zone_heterogeneity_sd": 0.12
  },
  "design": "geo_cluster",
  "driver_incentive_response_scale": 1.0,
  "estimation_population_id": "full_horizon",
  "evidence_type": "semi_synthetic_known_ground_truth",
  "exposure_mapping": "row-normalized ring adjacency",
  "full_policy_spend": 1826.7715877060323,
  "ground_truth": {
    "all_treated_market_total_effect": 0.6197162193591356,
    "analysis_horizon_cumulative_effect": 118.98551411695404,
    "analysis_population_controlled_zone_direct_effect": 0.45825276469632636,
    "analysis_population_market_total_effect": 0.6197162193591356,
    "analysis_population_persistent_effect": 0.16772801805209328,
    "analysis_population_short_run_effect": 0.45198820130704237,
    "analysis_population_spillover_effect": 0.12081058552246828,
    "analysis_rows": 192.0,
    "analysis_share": 1.0,
    "assignment_first_stage": null,
    "average_treatment_effect": 0.6197162193591356,
    "controlled_zone_direct_effect": 0.45825276469632636,
    "cumulative_effect": 118.98551411695404,
    "direct_effect": null,
    "first_stage": null,
    "full_horizon_incremental_trips": 118.98551411695404,
    "full_horizon_incremental_welfare": 1885.077339926111,
    "full_horizon_market_total_effect": 0.6197162193591356,
    "full_policy_mean_exposure": 1.0,
    "full_policy_spend": 1826.7715877060323,
    "incremental_trips": 118.98551411695404,
    "incremental_trips_per_dollar": 0.06513431395458151,
    "incremental_welfare": 1885.077339926111,
    "incremental_welfare_per_dollar": 1.0319173741328527,
    "intent_to_treat": null,
    "itt_available": 0.0,
    "market_total_effect": 0.6197162193591356,
    "persistent_effect": 0.16772801805209328,
    "realized_schedule_assigned_mean_effect": 0.5180194764229592,
    "realized_schedule_cumulative_effect": 55.81395520453171,
    "realized_schedule_mean_effect": 0.29069768335693597,
    "realized_schedule_mechanism_direct_component": 0.15197658921616639,
    "realized_schedule_mechanism_spillover_component": 0.13872109414076964,
    "realized_schedule_persistent_component": 0.07617902718266502,
    "realized_schedule_short_run_component": 0.21451865617427102,
    "short_run_effect": 0.45198820130704237,
    "spillover_effect": 0.12081058552246828,
    "treatment_on_treated": null
  },
  "ground_truth_availability": {
    "controlled_zone_direct_effect": {
      "available": true,
      "reason": null
    },
    "direct_effect": {
      "available": false,
      "reason": "individual rider outcomes are not represented in the aggregate panel"
    },
    "intent_to_treat": {
      "available": false,
      "reason": "assignment contrast differs from the structural full-policy contrast"
    }
  },
  "ground_truth_definitions": {
    "analysis_population_market_total_effect": "the same policy contrast restricted to assignment-specific analysis_eligible rows",
    "controlled_zone_direct_effect": "unconstrained focal-zone saturation policy versus zone control with mapped neighbors at zero; the shared market budget is not re-scaled separately for each focal contrast",
    "direct_effect": "individual rider direct effect is unavailable in this aggregate zone-time simulator",
    "full_horizon_incremental_trips": "sum of all-zone policy versus zero effects over every configured zone-period",
    "full_policy_spend": "treatment spend for the feasible all-zone policy path",
    "intent_to_treat": "randomized-arm assignment contrast when no interference, carryover, or shared-budget coupling is configured; unavailable (NaN) otherwise",
    "market_total_effect": "all-zone treatment policy versus all-zero, averaged per zone-period over the fixed configured horizon",
    "persistent_effect": "all-zone total effect minus its no-persistence path",
    "short_run_effect": "all-zone policy with persistence disabled versus all-zero",
    "spillover_effect": "untreated focal zone with mapped neighbors treated at configured saturation versus all-zero; the shared market budget is not applied to this controlled exposure contrast",
    "true_effect_panel_column": "realized mixed-schedule effect versus all-zero"
  },
  "itt_available": false,
  "n_periods": 48,
  "n_zones": 4,
  "realized_spend": 856.732542389379,
  "reference_incentive_per_driver": 1.5,
  "simulation_seed": 202503,
  "target_population_id": "all_4_zones_x_48_periods_equal_cell_weight",
  "treatment_version": "bundled",
  "treatment_version_description": "rider discount and driver incentive delivered at one common intensity",
  "treatment_version_limitation": "each experiment has one selected treatment version; simultaneous factorial rider-versus-driver arms require separate randomized assignments"
}