| { |
| "name": "World Awareness Benchmark", |
| "version": "1.0.0", |
| "description": "Tests whether AI agents accurately know current world state.", |
| "date": "2026-05-01", |
| "source": "SimpleFunctions World Model", |
| "scoring": { |
| "exact_match": 2, |
| "correct_direction": 1, |
| "wrong_or_refused": 0, |
| "max_score": 174 |
| }, |
| "categories": [ |
| "Geopolitical", |
| "Economy", |
| "Markets", |
| "Politics", |
| "Tech", |
| "Climate", |
| "Sports" |
| ], |
| "question_count": 87, |
| "questions": [ |
| { |
| "id": "geo-001", |
| "question": "What is the SF Geo Risk Index score (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 29, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-002", |
| "question": "What is the SF Disagreement Index (0-100)?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 49, |
| "unit": "score_0_100", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-003", |
| "question": "Is the SF market breadth positive or negative?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": "positive", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "SF Index", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-004", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: When will the next U.S. recession start??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 3, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "When will the next U.S. recession start?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-005", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: When will the next U.S. recession start??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 13, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "When will the next U.S. recession start?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-006", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 6, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-007", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 14, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-008", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: June Meeting?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 5, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed rate cut by...?: June Meeting", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-009", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 46, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Fed rate cut by...?: December Meeting", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-010", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on May 2, 2026??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 93, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Bitcoin price on May 2, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-011", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Bitcoin price on May 2, 2026??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 82, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Bitcoin price on May 2, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-012", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 7, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-013", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 2, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-014", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: What will happen before GTA VI?: Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire?", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 56, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "What will happen before GTA VI?: Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "geo-015", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting??", |
| "category": "Geopolitical", |
| "ground_truth": 20, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the Bank of Russia Maintain current rate at the June Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ key rate meeting?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-016", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 45, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-017", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 57, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Iliana Yotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-018", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 38, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Ethereum reach above $3500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-019", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 30, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will Ethereum reach above $3750.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-020", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the gold close price be above 4613.99 USD/t.oz on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT??", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 43, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the gold close price be above 4613.99 USD/t.oz on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-021", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: April Inflation US - Annual: 3.8%?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 27, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "April Inflation US - Annual: 3.8%", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-022", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: April Inflation US - Annual: 3.7%?", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 36, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "April Inflation US - Annual: 3.7%", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-023", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.4% in Q1 2026??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 3, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will unemployment in Brazil be below 5.4% in Q1 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "eco-024", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: How high will unemployment get before 2027??", |
| "category": "Economy", |
| "ground_truth": 34, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "How high will unemployment get before 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "tec-025", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Which company has the best AI model end of May?: OpenAI?", |
| "category": "Tech", |
| "ground_truth": 3, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Which company has the best AI model end of May?: OpenAI", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "tec-026", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Which company has the best AI model end of May?: Anthropic?", |
| "category": "Tech", |
| "ground_truth": 80, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Which company has the best AI model end of May?: Anthropic", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "cli-027", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the maximum temperature be <64° on May 1, 2026??", |
| "category": "Climate", |
| "ground_truth": 97, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the maximum temperature be <64° on May 1, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "cli-028", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on May 2, 2026??", |
| "category": "Climate", |
| "ground_truth": 23, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on May 2, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-029", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 44, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed by Dec 31, 2026?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "pol-030", |
| "question": "What probability does the market assign to: Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027??", |
| "category": "Politics", |
| "ground_truth": 2, |
| "unit": "percent_cents", |
| "source": "Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-031", |
| "question": "What is the current SPY price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 720.1, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "SPY via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-032", |
| "question": "What is the current QQQ price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 667.48, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "QQQ via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-033", |
| "question": "What is the current GLD price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 423.57, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "GLD via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-034", |
| "question": "What is the current USO price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 147.09, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "USO via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-035", |
| "question": "What is the current TLT price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 85.93, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "TLT via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-036", |
| "question": "What is the current IWM price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 278.53, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "IWM via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "mar-037", |
| "question": "What is the current EEM price?", |
| "category": "Markets", |
| "ground_truth": 63.97, |
| "unit": "usd", |
| "source": "EEM via Databento", |
| "tolerance": 5, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-038", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will UConn win the College Basketball National Championship? (resolved 2026-04-07 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXMARMAD-26-CONN", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-039", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Scottie Scheffler win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SSCH", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-040", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Rory McIlroy win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RMCI", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-041", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship? (resolved 2026-04-07 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXMARMAD-26-MICH", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-042", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Justin Rose win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JROS", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-043", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Cameron Young win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CYOU", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-044", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Michigan at Arizona Winner? (resolved 2026-04-05 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26APR04MICHARIZ-ARIZ", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-045", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Golden State at Los Angeles C Winner? (resolved 2026-04-16 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNBAGAME-26APR15GSWLAC-GSW", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-046", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Arizona win the College Basketball National Championship? (resolved 2026-04-05 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXMARMAD-26-ARIZ", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-047", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Illinois at UConn Winner? (resolved 2026-04-05 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26APR04ILLCONN-ILL", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-048", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Bryson DeChambeau win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-10 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXPGATOUR-MAST26-BDEC", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-049", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: UConn at Duke Winner? (resolved 2026-03-29 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR29CONNDUKE-CONN", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-050", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Portland at Phoenix Winner? (resolved 2026-04-15 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNBAGAME-26APR14PORPHX-PHX", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-051", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Michigan at Arizona Winner? (resolved 2026-04-05 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26APR04MICHARIZ-MICH", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-052", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Illinois at UConn Winner? (resolved 2026-04-05 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26APR04ILLCONN-CONN", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-053", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Miami at Charlotte Winner? (resolved 2026-04-15 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNBAGAME-26APR14MIACHA-MIA", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-054", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Sam Burns win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SBUR", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-055", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: UConn at Duke Winner? (resolved 2026-03-29 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR29CONNDUKE-DUKE", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-056", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Illinois at Houston Winner? (resolved 2026-03-27 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR26ILLHOU-HOU", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-057", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Purdue at Arizona Winner? (resolved 2026-03-29 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNCAAMBGAME-26MAR28PURARIZ-ARIZ", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-058", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Miami at Charlotte Winner? (resolved 2026-04-15 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "yes", |
| "unit": "direction", |
| "source": "kalshi:KXNBAGAME-26APR14MIACHA-CHA", |
| "tolerance": 0, |
| "date": "2026-05-01" |
| }, |
| { |
| "id": "spo-059", |
| "question": "Did the market settle YES or NO: Will Patrick Reed win the Masters Tournament? (resolved 2026-04-12 on kalshi)", |
| "category": "Sports", |
| "ground_truth": "no", |
| "unit": "direction", |
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| { |
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| } |
