Add world state snapshot for 2026-05-28

2026-05-28.json

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+{
+  "date": "2026-05-28",
+  "timestamp": "2026-05-28T23:50:31.864Z",
+  "index": {
+    "disagreement": 56,
+    "geoRisk": 40,
+    "breadth": 0.37,
+    "activity": 43
+  },
+  "traditional": [
+    {
+      "symbol": "SPY",
+      "price": 751.95,
+      "changePct": 0.2
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "QQQ",
+      "price": 727.82,
+      "changePct": -0.19
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IWM",
+      "price": 290.46,
+      "changePct": 0.01
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "VIXY",
+      "price": 24.12,
+      "changePct": -2.15
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "SHY",
+      "price": 82.23,
+      "changePct": 0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IEF",
+      "price": 94.32,
+      "changePct": 0.05
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "TLT",
+      "price": 85.36,
+      "changePct": 0.33
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "HYG",
+      "price": 80.13,
+      "changePct": -0.06
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "GLD",
+      "price": 408.8,
+      "changePct": -1.25
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "USO",
+      "price": 131.12,
+      "changePct": -4.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UNG",
+      "price": 11.18,
+      "changePct": 2.38
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "CPER",
+      "price": 38.48,
+      "changePct": -1.43
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "UUP",
+      "price": 27.76,
+      "changePct": 0.02
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "FXE",
+      "price": 107.32,
+      "changePct": -0.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "XLE",
+      "price": 56.99,
+      "changePct": -1.5
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "EEM",
+      "price": 68.4,
+      "changePct": -0.04
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "IBIT",
+      "price": 42.54,
+      "changePct": -1.14
+    },
+    {
+      "symbol": "ETHE",
+      "price": 16.69,
+      "changePct": -0.6
+    }
+  ],
+  "topics": [],
+  "topEdges": [],
+  "divergences": [
+    {
+      "description": "MI-03 House Election Winner lagging Republican win the House race for IN-… — 57¢ gap [US Elections]",
+      "implication": "",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Equity-oil split: SPY +0.2% vs Oil -4.4% — demand pulling, supply stable",
+      "implication": "demand pulling, supply stable",
+      "affectedTickers": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "markdown": "# World (2026-05-28 23:45 UTC)\nRegime: Broad up-skew — markets resolving toward higher probability\nSimpleFunctions Index: Disagree 56 | GeoRisk 40 | Breadth +0.37 | Activity 43\nBaseline: last 12h\n\n## [divergence] MI-03 House Election Winner lagging Republican win the House race for IN-… — 56¢ gap [US Elections]\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"Will Republican win the House race for IN-08?: Mark Messmer\",\"Δ\":\"86c\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"MI-03 House Election Winner: Republican Party\",\"Δ\":\"13c\"}\n- gap: 56\n- theme: US Elections\n- triggerTicker: KXHOUSERACE-IN08-26-R\n- laggingTicker: 0x5a9c199f5580fd145622bf822fdcab24c44f24cf3db997db3c6eaea3907578c1\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-ne3v7c`\n  → Will Republican win the House race for IN-08?: Mark Messmer spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## [residual] 9.2σ volume @ 63¢ — federal funds rate be above 3.50%?\n- ticker: KXFED-27APR-T3.50\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?: Above 3.50%\n- price: 63\n- residualVr: 9.237\n- vr: 9.661\n- volume24h: 907\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-om3y0x`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFED-27APR-T3.50`\n\n## [consensus_break] Andalusia Election: 3 markets deeply split (σ=44¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: 386100\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x08927f9481670a909c3bcf0543894c1bf95469284c73f2cf04394977a5008651\",\"title\":\"Andalusia Election: PP # of seats?: 56-58\",\"price\":4},{\"ticker\":\"0x5a6e757c5917a519ae5a0...\n- dispersion: 44\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → drill election-2026 · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-yb3wbb`\n\n## [consensus_break] White House Press Briefings in May be at lea…: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 93¢)\n- seriesKey: KXPRESSBRIEFINGCOUNT\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"KXPRESSBRIEFINGCOUNT-26MAY-A3\",\"title\":\"Will the number of White House Press Briefings in May 2026 be at least 3?: At least 3\",\"price\":96},{\"ticker\":\"KXPRESSBRIEFING...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 93\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-emukfc`\n\n## [consensus_break] Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: 3 markets deeply split (σ=43¢, range 92¢)\n- seriesKey: 97496\n- markets: [{\"ticker\":\"0x44277993368a2f9011cabfbee8894c7d71d3aad29c3049a8651c4d15db92ee04\",\"title\":\"Oklahoma Governor Democratic Primary Winner: Constance N. Johnson\",\"price\":3},{\"ticker\":...\n- dispersion: 43\n- range: 92\n- implication: markets disagree on resolution level\n  → full spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → why disagree? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-6xcaak`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% no in 5h — Japan consumer confidence for May be above 3…\n- ticker: KXJPCONCONF-26MAY29-T34.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will Japan consumer confidence for May 2026 be above 34.5?: Above 34.5\n- price: 5\n- settlesInHours: 5\n- impliedProbability: 0.05\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXJPCONCONF-26MAY29-T34.5`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXJPCONCONF-26MAY29-T34.5`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 94% no in 4h — average **gas prices** be above?\n- ticker: KXAAAGASD-26MAY29-4.400\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will average **gas prices** be above $4.400?: Above 4.400\n- price: 6\n- settlesInHours: 4\n- impliedProbability: 0.06\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXAAAGASD-26MAY29-4.400`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXAAAGASD-26MAY29-4.400`\n\n## [resolving_soon] 95% yes in 7h — France GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 be above 0…\n- ticker: KXFRGDPYOYP-26MAY29-T0.6\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will France GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6%\n- price: 95\n- settlesInHours: 7\n- impliedProbability: 0.95\n- ifYes: resolves TRUE, pays 100¢\n- ifNo: resolves FALSE, pays 0¢\n  → price path · `GET /api/public/market/KXFRGDPYOYP-26MAY29-T0.6`\n  → nearby resolutions · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=catalyst`\n  → siblings · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXFRGDPYOYP-26MAY29-T0.6`\n\n## [residual] 1.8σ volume @ 34¢ — CPI rise more than 0.5% in May?\n- ticker: KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5\n- venue: kalshi\n- title: Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in May 2026?: Above 0.5%\n- price: 34\n- residualVr: 1.783\n- vr: 2.937\n- volume24h: 2024.66\n  → why moving? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-16afde`\n  → volume path · `GET /api/public/market/KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n  → related · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=trail&from=KXCPI-26MAY-T0.5`\n\n## [divergence] Equity-oil split: SPY +0.2% vs Oil -4.4% — demand pulling, supply stable\n- lhs: {\"name\":\"SPY\",\"Δ\":\"+0.2%\"}\n- rhs: {\"name\":\"USO\",\"Δ\":\"-4.4%\"}\n- hypothesis: demand pulling, supply stable\n  → why? · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=explain&item=s-4075jg`\n  → SPY spread · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=dispersion`\n  → 6h path · `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world?op=history&dt=6h`\n\n## Zoom\n- **Iran** — 281 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/iran`\n- **Oil & Energy** — 409 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/oil`\n- **Fed & Rates** — 1151 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/fed-rate`\n- **Recession** — 656 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/recession`\n- **2026 Elections** — 3159 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/election-2026`\n- **Crypto** — 918 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/bitcoin`\n- **Ukraine/Russia** — 352 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/ukraine`\n- **China/Taiwan** — 277 markets → `GET https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world/china`\n\n---\nPath: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world\nOp: snapshot · Generated in 3389ms",
+  "markdownTokenEstimate": 1707
+}