Update oracle predictions
Browse files- predictions.csv +100 -100
- predictions.json +1046 -1046
predictions.csv
CHANGED
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id,question,category,url,market_prob,oracle_prob,edge,confidence,signal,model,backtest_acc,auc,modelability,volume,liquidity,end_date,captured_at
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558970,Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-cape-verde-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.
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558944,Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-uruguay-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-932,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9355,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,
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558949,Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-japan-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-112,0.
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558943,Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-usa-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-467,0.0355,0.
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558963,Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464,0.0205,0.
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2099580,Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565,0.775,0.
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| 1 |
id,question,category,url,market_prob,oracle_prob,edge,confidence,signal,model,backtest_acc,auc,modelability,volume,liquidity,end_date,captured_at
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| 2 |
+
558970,Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-cape-verde-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9355,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,62,72722548,2703367,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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1897193,Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-arg,0.9995,0.9728,-0.0267,0.9173,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,76,20268598,3788815,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558944,Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-uruguay-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-932,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9355,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,70934272,9010026,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558946,Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-belgium-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-358,0.0105,0.01,-0.0005,0.9435,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,64,69702916,5789487,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2324049,Spread: Argentina (-1.5),OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-spread-home-1pt5,0.9945,0.9576,-0.0369,0.7763,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,68,6716738,51939,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2324062,Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-total-2pt5,0.0155,0.0804,0.0649,0.7383,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,67,6712629,34574,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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1897194,Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-draw,0.0005,0.0323,0.0318,0.9055,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,75,5460722,1141802,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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1897197,Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-aut,0.0005,0.0176,0.0171,0.9174,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,75,5329904,1020692,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2063134,Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-adanech-abiebie-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia,0.002,0.01,0.008,0.8145,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,52,14245841,13755,2026-06-01,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558947,Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-colombia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-734,0.0155,0.01,-0.0055,0.9385,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,66404088,2027957,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558951,Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-norway-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-893,0.0225,0.0172,-0.0053,0.9387,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,62466652,2624861,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558976,Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-croatia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0055,0.01,0.0045,0.9395,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,62,71953466,5642489,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558968,Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-egypt-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0025,0.01,0.0075,0.9365,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,61,77484632,13382318,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558966,Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-ivory-coast-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0045,0.01,0.0055,0.9385,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,62,84353498,9541364,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2063131,Will Alesa Mengesha be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-alesa-mengesha-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia,0.002,0.01,0.008,0.8109,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,51,3150595,11863,2026-06-01,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558975,Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-austria-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0035,0.01,0.0065,0.9358,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,61,65566411,4542647,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558938,Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-argentina-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-245,0.1365,0.1307,-0.0058,0.9329,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,73,66877014,1306337,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558949,Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-japan-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-112,0.0215,0.0157,-0.0058,0.9332,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,62,71950325,1771236,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558940,Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912,0.0675,0.0661,-0.0014,0.9372,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,67,61560178,4700794,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558941,Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739,0.0545,0.0502,-0.0043,0.9342,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,61637894,1718697,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558943,Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-usa-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-467,0.0355,0.03,-0.0055,0.9329,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,64,93858162,4802429,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558934,Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963,0.1385,0.1391,0.0006,0.9373,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,69,60136348,5599572,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2324061,Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-total-1pt5,0.9995,0.9819,-0.0176,0.909,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,73,1870308,958394,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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1897211,Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22-nor,0.425,0.4397,0.0147,0.8688,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,82,2534670,2631380,2026-06-23,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558961,Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-south-korea-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-485,0.0025,0.01,0.0075,0.9293,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,61,91145092,8284165,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558939,Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-germany-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-467,0.0565,0.0524,-0.0041,0.9327,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,64,61975904,2172956,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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569368,Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-ivan-cepeda-castro-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election,0.008,0.028,0.02,0.8374,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,69,6773858,205236,2026-06-21,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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569366,Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-abelardo-de-la-espriella-win-the-2026-colombian-presidential-election,0.992,0.9876,-0.0044,0.8525,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,69,6314338,128806,2026-06-21,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558935,Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-england-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-937,0.1255,0.1229,-0.0026,0.9326,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,68,52260112,6653370,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558981,Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-congo-dr-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9262,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,80140899,23175852,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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1897206,Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-irq,0.0265,0.0216,-0.0049,0.9297,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,62,1736134,1602565,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558963,Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-morocco-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-464,0.0205,0.0152,-0.0053,0.9285,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,61,66829729,2365739,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2324066,Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-btts,0.0045,0.0691,0.0646,0.7398,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,66,1362621,55994,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558967,Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-ghana-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.924,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,59677647,18124125,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558936,Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-france-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-924,0.1975,0.1976,0.0001,0.9315,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,72,67087159,6944776,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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1897202,Will France win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-fra,0.905,0.9247,0.0197,0.8575,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,65,1454793,2356367,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558937,Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-brazil-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-183,0.0555,0.0523,-0.0032,0.9273,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,64,49589399,6350106,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2069690,Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-romelu-lukaku-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.8463,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,54,1377783,70574,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558959,Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-788,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.9197,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,59300159,12101652,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558974,Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-switzerland-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0065,0.01,0.0035,0.9255,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,61986760,5199364,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2324040,Spread: France (-2.5),OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-spread-home-2pt5,0.555,0.5661,0.0111,0.8358,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,84,1053665,485316,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558952,Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-canada-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-755,0.0035,0.01,0.0065,0.922,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,66317874,11963026,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558955,Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-ecuador-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-986,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9197,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,69188194,7005676,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558965,Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-senegal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0055,0.01,0.0045,0.9236,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,56509802,10583938,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558973,Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-scotland-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9196,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,64873782,15846369,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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558945,Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-mexico-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-529,0.0125,0.01,-0.0025,0.9252,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,82003265,9728133,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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2063135,Will Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-gedion-timothewos-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia,0.002,0.01,0.008,0.7894,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,48,11450827,9648,2026-06-01,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
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| 49 |
+
558980,Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-sweden-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0025,0.01,0.0075,0.919,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,55944303,12573054,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 50 |
+
2324033,Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22-total-2pt5,0.495,0.5111,0.0161,0.8312,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,81,753222,569346,2026-06-23,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 51 |
+
558958,Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-australia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-816,0.0025,0.01,0.0075,0.9175,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,59,72196923,20605451,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 52 |
+
558956,Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-paraguay-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-967,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.9162,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,59,67569140,11822480,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 53 |
+
2324056,Spread: Argentina (-2.5),OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-spread-home-2pt5,0.0295,0.048,0.0185,0.7716,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,718547,6346,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 54 |
+
1897213,Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22-sen,0.295,0.3007,0.0057,0.8637,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,73,890286,1690543,2026-06-23,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 55 |
+
1971905,Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june,0.065,0.0705,0.0055,0.8491,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,72,31500920,820386,2026-06-30,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 56 |
+
2324063,Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-total-3pt5,0.0005,0.0403,0.0398,0.8203,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,67,670521,115015,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 57 |
+
2323061,Argentina leading at halftime?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-halftime-result-home,0.9995,0.9645,-0.035,0.8607,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,70,641373,489144,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 58 |
+
2069660,Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-ousmane-dembele-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0045,0.01,0.0055,0.8478,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,54,957021,87495,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 59 |
+
2324060,Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-total-0pt5,0.9995,0.99,-0.0095,0.8875,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,67,612483,528756,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 60 |
+
2323069,Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-2-0,0.994,0.955,-0.039,0.7369,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,554675,22528,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 61 |
+
2037666,Will Jeremy Peña have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-jeremy-pea-have-the-highest-batting-average-in-the-2026-mlb-regular-season,0.01,0.01,0,0.6148,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,40,515633,382,2026-09-28,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 62 |
+
1897218,Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22-jor,0.155,0.1532,-0.0018,0.8635,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,67,518380,1932225,2026-06-23,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 63 |
+
2481960,Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-team-total-home-1pt5,0.9995,0.9681,-0.0314,0.8534,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,69,445518,384426,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 64 |
+
2099580,Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/will-keir-starmer-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-565,0.775,0.7447,-0.0303,0.742,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,74,676656,35839,2026-12-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 65 |
+
1654957,Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?,ECON,https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting,0.0145,0.01,-0.0045,0.8671,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,55,2284503,226657,2026-07-29,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 66 |
+
2535468,Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15,0.315,0.3228,0.0078,0.8047,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,82,2191804,185689,2026-07-15,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 67 |
+
2481376,Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-first-half-total-0pt5,0.9995,0.9777,-0.0218,0.8749,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,70,422184,639589,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 68 |
+
2323072,Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-2-1,0.005,0.0149,0.0099,0.7724,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,414873,34107,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 69 |
+
2176262,Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31,0.495,0.5109,0.0159,0.8359,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,93,7689663,947754,2026-07-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 70 |
+
2069676,Will Federico Valverde be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-federico-valverde-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.0015,0.01,0.0085,0.8222,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,51,1427155,45694,2026-07-20,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 71 |
+
2037688,Will Oneil Cruz have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-oneil-cruz-have-the-highest-batting-average-in-the-2026-mlb-regular-season,0.01,0.01,0,0.6134,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,39,381461,425,2026-09-28,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 72 |
+
2547684,Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/dota2-pr1-l1ga-2026-06-22,0.9995,0.9649,-0.0346,0.8417,LONG NO,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,68,377068,297472,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 73 |
+
2323064,Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-0-0,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8628,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,66,357766,260348,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 74 |
+
2324045,France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-total-3pt5,0.525,0.5323,0.0073,0.8297,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,88,490770,565180,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 75 |
+
1897356,Will United States win on 2026-06-25?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tur-usa-2026-06-25-usa,0.505,0.5148,0.0098,0.8195,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,85,1088531,416187,2026-06-26,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 76 |
+
2323076,Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-3-1,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8397,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,352519,104367,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 77 |
+
2481377,Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-first-half-total-1pt5,0.0005,0.0482,0.0477,0.8332,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,69,340435,378221,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 78 |
+
1897204,Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-draw,0.075,0.0725,-0.0025,0.8581,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,62,571871,2695975,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 79 |
+
2324038,Spread: France (-1.5),OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-spread-home-1pt5,0.765,0.7781,0.0131,0.7967,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,70,391335,191792,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 80 |
+
1654958,Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?,ECON,https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting,0.745,0.7814,0.0364,0.7928,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,80,3348072,425956,2026-07-29,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 81 |
+
678420,Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?,CULTURE,https://polymarket.com/event/will-jumanji-3-be-the-top-grossing-movie-of-2026,0.0055,0.01,0.0045,0.8429,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,52,904848,99822,2026-12-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 82 |
+
1654959,Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?,ECON,https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting,0.2455,0.2326,-0.0129,0.864,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,80,5390474,333797,2026-07-29,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 83 |
+
2323079,Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-3-3,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8299,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,55,318689,72645,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 84 |
+
2611159,Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/wta-eala-mertens-2026-06-21,0.065,0.1043,0.0393,0.7545,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,68,293281,109395,2026-06-28,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 85 |
+
2070736,Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-switzerland-advance-to-the-knockout-stages-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.9985,0.99,-0.0085,0.8194,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,60,1952613,49104,2026-06-28,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 86 |
+
947289,Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-roberto-snchez-palomino-win-the-2026-peruvian-presidential-election,0.0035,0.01,0.0065,0.8552,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,54,35349763,321160,2026-06-07,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 87 |
+
2099592,Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/will-gustavo-petro-be-the-next-leader-out-before-2027-576,0.15,0.2114,0.0614,0.6457,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,68,545471,38619,2026-12-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 88 |
+
1370652, Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?,WORLD,https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30,0.038,0.0486,0.0106,0.8615,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,70,11470203,392211,2026-06-30,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 89 |
+
2481961,Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-team-total-home-2pt5,0.04,0.0767,0.0367,0.6003,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,57,247701,2292,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 90 |
+
2323078,Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-3-2,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8341,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,57,245261,99998,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 91 |
+
2324012,Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-prt-uzb-2026-06-23-total-3pt5,0.365,0.3757,0.0107,0.7972,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,71,246734,210607,2026-06-23,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 92 |
+
2585347,Spread: France (-3.5),OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22-spread-home-3pt5,0.345,0.3527,0.0077,0.8038,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,70,247894,248485,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 93 |
+
2323066,Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-1-0,0.005,0.0209,0.0159,0.7586,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,63,226328,56345,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 94 |
+
1321567,Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/will-shein-have-the-highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-348,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8173,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,50,318767,53207,2026-12-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 95 |
+
1897223,Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22-alg,0.635,0.6532,0.0182,0.8362,LONG YES,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,76,465075,1634404,2026-06-23,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 96 |
+
682709,Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?,POLITICS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-benny-gantz-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel,0.0035,0.01,0.0065,0.8347,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,51,968723,98004,2026-12-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 97 |
+
2323073,Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-exact-score-3-0,0.065,0.0637,-0.0013,0.7041,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,49,246621,3594,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 98 |
+
2324052,Spread: Austria (-1.5),OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-spread-away-1pt5,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8411,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,59,201933,147238,2026-06-22,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 99 |
+
839969,Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?,SPORTS,https://polymarket.com/event/will-argentina-win-group-j-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup,0.9935,0.9844,-0.0091,0.8076,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,66,658486,160595,2026-06-27,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 100 |
+
1321566,Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/will-databricks-have-the-highest-ipo-market-cap-2026-418,0.0005,0.01,0.0095,0.8075,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,49,340466,37789,2026-12-31,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
| 101 |
+
2303199,Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of SSC Napoli?,OTHER,https://polymarket.com/event/will-filipe-luis-be-the-next-manager-of-ssc-napoli,0.0035,0.01,0.0065,0.683,HOLD,logreg.updown.v1,0.6018,0.6551,42,369128,566,2026-09-01,2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z
|
predictions.json
CHANGED
|
@@ -4,38 +4,38 @@
|
|
| 4 |
"question": "Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?",
|
| 5 |
"category": "SPORTS",
|
| 6 |
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-cape-verde-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup",
|
| 7 |
-
"market_prob": 0.
|
| 8 |
"oracle_prob": 0.01,
|
| 9 |
-
"edge": 0.
|
| 10 |
-
"confidence": 0.
|
| 11 |
"signal": "HOLD",
|
| 12 |
"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
| 13 |
"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
|
| 14 |
"auc": 0.6551,
|
| 15 |
"modelability": 62,
|
| 16 |
-
"volume":
|
| 17 |
-
"liquidity":
|
| 18 |
"end_date": "2026-07-20",
|
| 19 |
-
"captured_at": "2026-06-22T21:
|
| 20 |
},
|
| 21 |
{
|
| 22 |
-
"id": "
|
| 23 |
-
"question": "
|
| 24 |
"category": "OTHER",
|
| 25 |
-
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-
|
| 26 |
-
"market_prob": 0.
|
| 27 |
-
"oracle_prob": 0.
|
| 28 |
-
"edge": 0.
|
| 29 |
-
"confidence": 0.
|
| 30 |
-
"signal": "LONG
|
| 31 |
"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
| 32 |
"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
|
| 33 |
"auc": 0.6551,
|
| 34 |
-
"modelability":
|
| 35 |
-
"volume":
|
| 36 |
-
"liquidity":
|
| 37 |
"end_date": "2026-06-22",
|
| 38 |
-
"captured_at": "2026-06-22T21:
|
| 39 |
},
|
| 40 |
{
|
| 41 |
"id": "558944",
|
|
@@ -51,48 +51,105 @@
|
|
| 51 |
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"id": "2063134",
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@@ -127,10 +184,10 @@
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"id": "2063131",
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@@ -254,130 +273,111 @@
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"id": "558943",
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@@ -385,37 +385,18 @@
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| 403 |
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| 404 |
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"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739",
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"id": "558934",
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@@ -423,94 +404,75 @@
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| 423 |
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@@ -518,113 +480,170 @@
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@@ -634,35 +653,35 @@
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@@ -670,56 +689,56 @@
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{
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"id": "1654957",
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@@ -1242,16 +1204,16 @@
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"end_date": "2026-06-22",
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{
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"signal": "HOLD",
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"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
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{
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"id": "1897356",
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@@ -1356,54 +1394,130 @@
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{
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"category": "OTHER",
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| 1380 |
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{
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"signal": "HOLD",
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"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
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| 1401 |
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| 1402 |
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{
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"id": "1654959",
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|
@@ -1411,56 +1525,56 @@
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| 1411 |
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| 1412 |
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| 1418 |
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| 1419 |
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| 1421 |
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| 1422 |
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| 1427 |
{
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| 1428 |
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| 1437 |
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| 1438 |
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| 1449 |
"category": "OTHER",
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| 1450 |
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| 1456 |
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| 1457 |
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| 1458 |
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| 1459 |
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| 1460 |
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| 1465 |
{
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| 1466 |
"id": "2070736",
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|
@@ -1470,225 +1584,168 @@
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| 1470 |
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{
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| 1525 |
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| 1540 |
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| 1542 |
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| 1543 |
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| 1656 |
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| 1657 |
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| 1673 |
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| 1675 |
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| 1828 |
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"question": "Spread: Austria (-1.5)",
|
| 1829 |
+
"category": "OTHER",
|
| 1830 |
+
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22-spread-away-1pt5",
|
| 1831 |
+
"market_prob": 0.0005,
|
| 1832 |
"oracle_prob": 0.01,
|
| 1833 |
+
"edge": 0.0095,
|
| 1834 |
+
"confidence": 0.8411,
|
| 1835 |
"signal": "HOLD",
|
| 1836 |
"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
| 1837 |
"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
|
| 1838 |
"auc": 0.6551,
|
| 1839 |
+
"modelability": 59,
|
| 1840 |
+
"volume": 201933,
|
| 1841 |
+
"liquidity": 147238,
|
| 1842 |
+
"end_date": "2026-06-22",
|
| 1843 |
+
"captured_at": "2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z"
|
| 1844 |
},
|
| 1845 |
{
|
| 1846 |
+
"id": "839969",
|
| 1847 |
+
"question": "Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?",
|
| 1848 |
+
"category": "SPORTS",
|
| 1849 |
+
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-argentina-win-group-j-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup",
|
| 1850 |
+
"market_prob": 0.9935,
|
| 1851 |
+
"oracle_prob": 0.9844,
|
| 1852 |
+
"edge": -0.0091,
|
| 1853 |
+
"confidence": 0.8076,
|
| 1854 |
"signal": "HOLD",
|
| 1855 |
"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
| 1856 |
"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
|
| 1857 |
"auc": 0.6551,
|
| 1858 |
+
"modelability": 66,
|
| 1859 |
+
"volume": 658486,
|
| 1860 |
+
"liquidity": 160595,
|
| 1861 |
+
"end_date": "2026-06-27",
|
| 1862 |
+
"captured_at": "2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z"
|
| 1863 |
},
|
| 1864 |
{
|
| 1865 |
"id": "1321566",
|
|
|
|
| 1869 |
"market_prob": 0.0005,
|
| 1870 |
"oracle_prob": 0.01,
|
| 1871 |
"edge": 0.0095,
|
| 1872 |
+
"confidence": 0.8075,
|
| 1873 |
"signal": "HOLD",
|
| 1874 |
"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
| 1875 |
"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
|
| 1876 |
"auc": 0.6551,
|
| 1877 |
"modelability": 49,
|
| 1878 |
"volume": 340466,
|
| 1879 |
+
"liquidity": 37789,
|
| 1880 |
"end_date": "2026-12-31",
|
| 1881 |
+
"captured_at": "2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1882 |
},
|
| 1883 |
{
|
| 1884 |
"id": "2303199",
|
| 1885 |
"question": "Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of SSC Napoli?",
|
| 1886 |
"category": "OTHER",
|
| 1887 |
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-filipe-luis-be-the-next-manager-of-ssc-napoli",
|
| 1888 |
+
"market_prob": 0.0035,
|
| 1889 |
"oracle_prob": 0.01,
|
| 1890 |
+
"edge": 0.0065,
|
| 1891 |
+
"confidence": 0.683,
|
| 1892 |
"signal": "HOLD",
|
| 1893 |
"model": "logreg.updown.v1",
|
| 1894 |
"backtest_acc": 0.6018,
|
| 1895 |
"auc": 0.6551,
|
| 1896 |
+
"modelability": 42,
|
| 1897 |
"volume": 369128,
|
| 1898 |
+
"liquidity": 566,
|
| 1899 |
"end_date": "2026-09-01",
|
| 1900 |
+
"captured_at": "2026-06-22T21:35:29.957Z"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1901 |
}
|
| 1902 |
]
|