Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 2,005 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation, and I guess I can go with the language. The one thing that your comments raised in my mind relates to row 3, the rationale part of the statement, where it talks about possible increases in resource utilization. I wonder if we shouldn't have a statement that talks about the c... | 119 |
fomc | 2,005 | Let me just respond. We have a problem if we move too quickly in changes that we make. This statement is a very significant change. | 28 |
fomc | 2,005 | Right. I don't disagree with you. That's the only thing that occurred to me, but I'm fine with your proposal. I think we need to keep going. | 32 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Lacker. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | I support your recommendation, Mr. Chairman, and I support alternative B. We've been engaged in a very constructive dialogue over the last week or two--or several weeks--about how to remove some of the elements of our statement that have been mainstays for some time. I think it's important for the rationale paragraph t... | 383 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | I support your recommendation, too. You know, in the e-mail discussions that have gone on with regard to the various iterations of this statement, I think a lot of interesting ideas have come out. And they all revolve around where we are on the spectrum in terms of the question: Are we close to the end of this current ... | 903 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I guess I'm going to be an outlier here. Let me start by first saying that I agree with the 25 basis point increase. As for the language, I think everyone in the room agrees that we don't know at this time what the path of policy is going to be next year. The data and the forecasts are going to... | 509 |
fomc | 2,005 | If I could, I'd like to respond to that just to give you the other side of the argument. The fact that we are making a significant change in the statement is the reason why they might conclude that we're also changing the 25 to 50, and I think that we want to keep ourselves flexible in that regard. In my judgment, the ... | 326 |
fomc | 2,005 | Well, I've thought about both sides of this a great deal, and I understand that argument. I just think we're at the point where it's better to get all the changes behind us, so I'd do it now. That's a judgment call. | 48 |
fomc | 2,005 | If you can guarantee that the market will--[Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 2,005 | If I could guarantee that, I wouldn't be here! [Laughter] | 15 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Stern. | 3 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I agree with the recommendation to raise the federal funds rate target by 1/4 percentage point, and I can accept the language in alternative B as it is drafted here. If I were the policy czar on this, I would make an argument to take out "measured" on the grounds that we want to at least alert ... | 281 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Fisher. | 3 |
fomc | 2,005 | Mr. Chairman, I listened very carefully to what you said. In 1997, I sold my money management business because I figured I could no longer beat the house. For 23 years I was a market operator, so I'm very sensitive to the power of markets and the issue you raised, although I think it's a very risky business for the FOM... | 390 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Poole. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support the 25 basis point increase. In my view, leaving "measured" in is wise because it provides continuity with past statements. Also, I think taking it out would be read as a hint to the market that we would seriously consider a 50 basis point increase. And I don't think that's necessary ... | 379 |
fomc | 2,005 | The only thing I would say in response to that is that if we change "is likely" to "may" at this meeting, we're going to get a bond market rally, which we're not going to find helpful in containing the speculation in the housing market. So I think it's more an issue not of what our intentions are but how the market is ... | 294 |
fomc | 2,005 | I don't disagree with that, and that's why I said I would be willing to make a substantial bet that we will want to increase the funds rate in January. And I think it would be unfortunate to send a signal otherwise. But I am worried about the sequence of these statements and the advantages of making minimal changes in ... | 84 |
fomc | 2,005 | Well, I think we're all in agreement that we want to get out from under this language as soon as feasible and with as little disruption as feasible. And we're guessing in a lot of areas. We just have no way of anticipating certain things. We're all going in the same direction. The question is how fast we get there. Gov... | 69 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, I accept your recommendation for a 25 basis point move. On your analysis of asset prices, I think it is notable that over the last ten years--or more than ten years--we've had a great moderation in both GDP and also inflation, but at the same time, as you point out, asset volatility hasn... | 531 |
fomc | 2,005 | Governor Bies. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First, let me say that I support the 25 basis point increase today. And I give my sympathy to Brian, who has heard our many different viewpoints in the last week. I think he has done a good job of trying to get all our ideas out here in a reasonable balance. My initial feeling was that I really... | 662 |
fomc | 2,005 | Governor Olson. | 3 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. First of all, I support the 1/4 point increase. We have passed over fairly quickly, except for a couple of instances, the impact of removing the "accommodative" language, which I think is very significant. And I am reminded, based on past experience, that when we make multiple changes in our st... | 211 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Santomero. | 5 |
fomc | 2,005 | Mr. Chairman, I support the proposal to raise the fed funds rate 25 basis points. As to the language itself, I supported the first change we had to alternative B. Since that time, we've played around, if you will, with some of the wording, and I worry a little about wordsmanship by 19 people over time. I'm not sure how... | 156 |
fomc | 2,005 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your proposition to tighten policy by 25 basis points today. And I agree with you that we'll probably have to move in January, with a good deal of uncertainty about where we'll go after that. If I could design the market reaction to our announcement--which I know from long experience ... | 709 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Pianalto. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support your recommendation of a 25 basis point increase in our fed funds rate target. I can also accept the language in alternative B. Like others, though, I came to the meeting preferring to remove the word "measured." But I didn't see removing the term "measured" in the way Brian did--that... | 201 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Yellen. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support a 25 basis point increase today and I also support the language in alternative B. It seems to me that the framework in "B" maintains its existing form and also offers forward-looking guidance. I think we've had a very constructive process, much to my surprise, in the way 19 people hav... | 391 |
fomc | 2,005 | President Guynn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Mr. Chairman, I too support the recommendation for a 25 basis point increase. I'm sure that the process we went through on revising the language in the statement was frustrating to the staff but I actually found it both interesting and constructive. When we're making changes as significant as we are today, I think ther... | 420 |
fomc | 2,005 | Vice Chair. | 3 |
fomc | 2,005 | Mr. Chairman, I support your recommendation to move 25 basis points and I support the language in alternative B. I think it's a nice, balanced formulation, and I do believe it's the best way to leave expectations roughly neutral. I think we view the probability as very high that we're going to need to move in January a... | 370 |
fomc | 2,005 | We are going to be voting only on the directive and the assessment of risks; therefore, we needed a second view of the Committee on the statement itself. It turns out that the critical word there that has been in dispute, and which Brian was unable to resolve, was the word "measured." And it had the advantage of not ch... | 160 |
fomc | 2,005 | I'll be reading the directive wording from the Bluebook and the assessment of risks from alternative B in exhibit 2 from Brian's presentation. "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run obj... | 150 |
fomc | 2,005 | Call the roll. | 4 |
fomc | 2,005 | Chairman Greenspan Yes Vice Chairman Geithner Yes Governor Bies Yes Governor Ferguson Yes President Fisher Yes Governor Kohn Yes President Moskow Yes Governor Olson Yes President Santomero Yes President Stern Yes | 40 |
fomc | 2,005 | Okay. Let's move to recess. I'd like to ask the Federal Reserve Board members to come to my office to respond to requests for changes in the discount rate. [Recess] | 36 |
fomc | 2,005 | The Board voted to approve the requests of all twelve Reserve Banks to increase the discount rate to 51/4 percent. The last item on the agenda is to confirm that our next meeting, and my last, is January 31st. See you all for lunch. | 54 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you all very much. I'll try to say more later, but I'm not sure I can make it. [Laughter] Item 1 on the agenda is just basically for me to turn it over to Roger Ferguson to do as he sees fit. [Laughter] | 55 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you very much. I will do what is right. [Laughter] Let me open the floor now for nominations for a Chairman and a Vice Chairman of this Committee. | 35 |
fomc | 2,006 | For the day. | 4 |
fomc | 2,006 | Now, you'll see what happens. [Laughter] Don't presume anything. Governor Kohn. | 19 |
fomc | 2,006 | I move that the Committee elect Alan Greenspan as its Chairman to serve for the remainder of today and Timothy Geithner as its Vice Chairman to serve until the election of a successor at the first regularly scheduled meeting of 2007. | 47 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you very much. Is there a second? PARTICIPANT. Second. | 16 |
fomc | 2,006 | Fine. Is there any discussion? Is there any objection? Hearing none, it is unanimous. Congratulations. [Laughter] Before democracy moves too quickly, [laughter] we also have to move to plan for the election of a new Chairman. So let me, again, turn to Governor Kohn. | 62 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you, Governor Ferguson. I further move that the Committee conduct a notation vote upon the swearing-in of a new Chairman of the Board of Governors to elect Alan Greenspan's successor as Chairman of this Committee. | 43 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you. Is there a second? I do need a second on that. PARTICIPANT. I second. | 23 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you very much. Any objection? Any discussion? None. So we will plan to do as Governor Kohn has suggested and hold a notation vote when a new Chairman is sworn in for the Board of Governors. Mr. Chairman, I now turn the floor back to you. | 56 |
fomc | 2,006 | Why don't you continue on with the staff while you're in full swing? | 14 |
fomc | 2,006 | Well, I'm actually not in full swing, because I don't have the documents in front of me. [Laughter] | 24 |
fomc | 2,006 | Why don't you read that? | 6 |
fomc | 2,006 | As Secretary and Economist, Vincent Reinhart; as Deputy Secretary, Debbie Danker; as Assistant Secretaries, Dave Skidmore and Michelle Smith; as General Counsel, Scott Alvarez; as Deputy General Counsel, Tom Baxter; as Economists, Karen Johnson and Dave Stockton; as Associate Economists from the Board, Tom Connors, Ste... | 114 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you. I need someone to move those names for election. PARTICIPANT. So moved. | 20 |
fomc | 2,006 | A second? SEVERAL. Second. | 9 |
fomc | 2,006 | Any discussion? Any objection? So, again, those are elected unanimously. Congratulations. | 17 |
fomc | 2,006 | We also have to designate the Chief FOIA Officer. Thanks to a recent executive order, the FOMC is required to appoint a Chief FOIA Officer. The consensus candidate appears to be the Committee's Deputy Secretary. Accordingly, a vote is needed, indeed mandatory, to designate Debbie Danker, or her successor, as the FOMC's... | 227 |
fomc | 2,006 | Without exception. Our next item is the selection of a Federal Reserve Bank to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account. My notes say that New York is again the odds-on favorite. [Laughter] I'm always going with the odds-on favorite. I would suggest that, unless somebody moves, I will do so and assume it... | 131 |
fomc | 2,006 | I'll move that nomination. | 5 |
fomc | 2,006 | Without objection. Now, as to the authorization for Desk operations--why don't you take over and propose it? | 22 |
fomc | 2,006 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. There are two votes. On the domestic authorization, I'm recommending that the Committee approve it. There are no amendments that are being suggested. | 34 |
fomc | 2,006 | So moved. | 3 |
fomc | 2,006 | Without objection. | 3 |
fomc | 2,006 | Okay. Thank you. Then, the next vote is on the foreign currency authorization, the foreign currency directive, and the procedural instructions. In the memo that I circulated, there was one small amendment that I am suggesting to the authorization, having to do with some housekeeping language related to reverse repos, t... | 74 |
fomc | 2,006 | Yes. President Lacker has expressed his intention to uphold the Richmond tradition of voting against both the foreign currency authorization and the directive. [Laughter] But he remains in favor of the procedural instructions. So lacking Lacker, are there any objections? [Laughter] Would you like time to-- | 60 |
fomc | 2,006 | Very respectfully, Mr. Chairman, I'd like to vote against the foreign currency operation authorization. Those of you who were here when my predecessor registered a similar dissent three years ago, and three years before that, should be familiar with the reasoning. For those of you who were not here then, the case is ve... | 170 |
fomc | 2,006 | Any further discussion on this issue? Would you like to--PARTICIPANT. So moved. | 20 |
fomc | 2,006 | Without other objection--noting, of course, that the Richmond Bank is dissenting. Dino Kos. | 21 |
fomc | 2,006 | 1 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. With the start of the new year, domestic markets were preoccupied with the same set of questions that occupied market participants in 2005. How much longer would the tightening cycle continue? What is the shape of the yield curve telling us? Are there signs of a slowdown? And are inflation pr... | 2,771 |
fomc | 2,006 | I'd like to go back to the British experience, which I think is intriguing in a number of different respects. The United Kingdom has TIPS-type issues going out fifty years. What do they index the fifty-year maturity to, incidentally? | 48 |
fomc | 2,006 | It's the RPIX. | 5 |
fomc | 2,006 | So it's not terribly dissimilar to ours. But what I think is really quite fascinating is that these relationships are largely demographically driven. In other words, the question is essentially that, if we're heading into a society in which an ever-increasing proportion of the people are retired, then you have some rea... | 441 |
fomc | 2,006 | Well, my reason for including this detail at the meeting really is because that's the anecdotal feedback that I've been getting over the past few weeks and months. And, in a sense, the U.K. experience caught a lot of portfolio managers here by surprise, and it has made them rethink their assumptions about the effect th... | 90 |
fomc | 2,006 | But if we know that there has always been this presumption, well, it can't be large enough to have an effect. | 25 |
fomc | 2,006 | I think what we've learned from the U.K. case is that it can be. In a sense, the thirty-year gilt in the United Kingdom became disengaged from the rest of the curve some years ago. And we had an upward-sloping curve to about ten, and then it became inverted because of these pension effects--or that seems to be the prev... | 174 |
fomc | 2,006 | Mr. Chairman, may I make three points? The first is that I would underscore what Dino said. A great event study occurred when the prudent-man law in the United Kingdom changed, and you saw longer-term yields fall as a result because pension managers had to go out further on the curve. | 59 |
fomc | 2,006 | What was the date of that? | 7 |
fomc | 2,006 | Around 1998. Second, as you know, in the discussion with the Treasury, we actually tried very hard to convince them to go to thirty and then to go beyond. But that's a very slow-moving boat. Third, real long-term securities are very convex in return. So just because of the arithmetic of the yield curve, you would think... | 107 |
fomc | 2,006 | Well, what happened to the term premium? | 9 |
fomc | 2,006 | In fact, the yield curve is a competition between two factors in uncertainty. Because of uncertainty, the term premium itself should march up at approximately linearly in maturity. | 33 |
fomc | 2,006 | It gets overwhelmed by the arithmetic. | 7 |
fomc | 2,006 | But convexity is a quadratic and starts about at the twenty-year maturity pulling down yields. That's why typically the thirty-year yield is below the twenty-year yield. When you get out to the fifty-year, then the effect of convexity is even more pronounced. | 52 |
fomc | 2,006 | When we were doing the analysis of the change in the term premium, since we know the convexity characteristics and we know what the longer-term rates are, were we able to infer part of our analysis from the longer-term elements? That's the only thing we really add. | 54 |
fomc | 2,006 | Sure. For instance, when the United Kingdom first issued a fifty-year security, we priced what a fifty-year maturity would be in the United States. And it was well below the thirty-year and not that dissimilar to what actually happened. So partly it is just that, because bonds are in price and that's what people care a... | 85 |
fomc | 2,006 | President Fisher. | 3 |
fomc | 2,006 | Going back to the Chairman's question on size, Dino, the press and many analysts focus on central bank reserves when they talk about what's buffeting intermediate-term rates. If you talk to Barclays, they give you awfully big numbers of potential dedicated moneys on the pension side, an order of magnitude of, say, mult... | 150 |
fomc | 2,006 | I think it can be looked at. I think the other point that you hinted at, which is very important, is that it's not just U.S. managers looking at U.S. TIPS but European managers looking at U.S. inflation-linked securities. It's a very good point. I think it's worth studying. | 63 |
fomc | 2,006 | President Minehan. | 4 |
fomc | 2,006 | I just wanted to note that I meet on Monday mornings before Open Market Committee meetings with a few pension fund managers and mutual fund managers just to hear what they're hearing in the markets. They are very much on the same wave length that you were, Mr. Chairman, in feeling that the flatness of the yield curve w... | 180 |
fomc | 2,006 | The legislation really is irrelevant. The problem here is that a set of liabilities is being created by the steepness of the retirement curve, and there is an obvious requirement to fund that set. But the bill in the Congress is trying to play games with the type of discount rate that companies can use. The only real d... | 144 |
fomc | 2,006 | I agree with you, but the fund managers that I have talked with would frame the problem in the context of increasing pressure from the outside. | 28 |
fomc | 2,006 | In other words, whether that bill passes or not, the pressures to fund these liabilities are going to increase, especially after the baby-boom generation starts to retire and fund managers look at the size of it. | 42 |
fomc | 2,006 | I have heard a few anecdotes regarding CEOs who have been very surprised and become angry when they saw that their unfunded pension fund cost them earnings over the past few years. They basically directed the CFO and, in turn, the pension managers not to let this happen again. Thus, regardless of legislation, there has... | 76 |
fomc | 2,006 | Yes. That's certainly what the fund managers were saying. | 11 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.