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fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, as best I can judge, recent readings on the economy are generally consistent with anticipation of moderate growth and some gradual diminution or at least no deterioration in inflation. Second-quarter GDP readings, as far as I can tell, contain no big surprises. In particular, the componen... | 856 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Hoenig. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Mr. Chairman, the Tenth District economy overall continues to perform well, with strength in energy and agriculture partially offset by the weaknesses in residential construction. Developments since the last meeting include some softening in District manufacturing activity similar to that shown in the July ISM survey n... | 776 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Plosser. | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Since our last meeting, the news in the Third District has been generally positive. Economic activity continues to expand in the tri-state area but at a less rapid pace than at our previous meeting. Our Business Outlook Survey indicates that the District's manufacturing output continued to expa... | 2,390 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Lockhart. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | I'm sorry. I see a two-handed intervention. | 10 |
fomc | 2,007 | Charlie, could I ask you about the issue of the fan charts? As I understood the proposal, the fan charts would be in there, but we would not be producing our individual fan charts. | 39 |
fomc | 2,007 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 2,007 | So I think you are absolutely right. I strongly agree with you that it is important to have something that is visually dynamic to get across uncertainty for many, many reasons, particularly to get people to understand that, even when we don't get it exactly right, we may still actually be doing a very good job and then... | 76 |
fomc | 2,007 | Well, I am encouraged that that is going to be the case. | 14 |
fomc | 2,007 | But I think it is a question of nuance. One of the issues that I wonder about here is that for us to do a communal fan chart would be extremely difficult technically. So the question is how we get across the issue of uncertainty in a very graphic way, and I think it can be done by producing information along the lines ... | 125 |
fomc | 2,007 | That is fine. This point was driven home to me by somebody who I thought was fairly sophisticated. He saw the central tendency narrow and thought that therefore we were more certain about what our forecasts were. | 40 |
fomc | 2,007 | It is not just the media. Think about the financial analysts who are writing about this all the time--and they get paid a lot more than we do. | 32 |
fomc | 2,007 | The two things are not completely unrelated. | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | No, they are not. | 6 |
fomc | 2,007 | If there is a lot of uncertainty, then there will be more divergence of views as well. | 19 |
fomc | 2,007 | They could be negatively correlated actually. Just because our point forecasts converge does not mean that our uncertainty about that forecast is decreased. | 25 |
fomc | 2,007 | No, that is true. | 6 |
fomc | 2,007 | It just means that there is more agreement. | 9 |
fomc | 2,007 | President Lockhart. | 4 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My basic view of appropriate policy is little changed from the previous meeting. None of the intermeeting developments yet compel me to change my view that our focus should remain on reducing inflation and inflation expectations. The outlook for GDP growth remains acceptable, especially in view... | 790 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Rosengren. | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | The Boston staff forecast is broadly consistent with the Greenbook forecast, with export-led growth being significantly offset by weakness in residential investment, resulting in a gradual increase in the unemployment rate and core PCE inflation settling around 2 percent. The Boston staff forecast is somewhat more opti... | 841 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. It's now 10:40. I'm informed the coffee is ready. Why don't we break until 11 o'clock? | 27 |
fomc | 2,007 | Let's reconvene. President Poole. | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. At the beginning of the break, two of our leaders made a special point of indicating that I was first up after the break. I guess that was an invitation to be fast and quick. [Laughter] I'll try. My overall impression from my business contacts is that things are more of the same rather than any... | 990 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Lacker. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In the Fifth District we continue to see moderate economic growth, though it has been uneven across sectors in recent weeks. Manufacturing activity rebounded somewhat in June and July after several months of weakness, with our indexes showing increases in new orders and shipments. Activity at D... | 1,119 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Vice Chairman. | 6 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The balance of risks has changed since our last meeting--significantly, in my view. Overall spending by households and businesses is weaker. Housing, of course, is significantly worse, and the underlying pace of productivity growth and potential growth seems lower. In addition, financial market... | 1,551 |
fomc | 2,007 | Governor Kohn. | 4 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Building on what the Vice Chairman just said, I have been listening in on that Morning Call. I've found it very useful, and it's certainly an opportunity to ask questions if you have them. My forecast for the most likely outcome for output over the next few years is close to that of the staff--... | 1,604 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Governor Warsh. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As many of us have discussed around this table and many of you already mentioned today, it has finally happened. Per earlier discussions, the much-anticipated repricing of risk is upon us, and I think what we all have quickly recognized, then and now, is that the diagnosis was the easy part. Mo... | 2,533 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Governor Kroszner. | 9 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you very much. I was looking back at my notes of the past few meetings and noted that the position we are in is a bit like that in the May meeting, at least the way in which people are characterizing things--that economic fundamentals still suggest moderate growth for the intermediate term but that uncertainty ha... | 1,741 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Governor Mishkin. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Well, except for the fact that we have had a benchmarking of potential GDP downward and greater weakness in housing, my forecast is basically similar to my forecast at the last FOMC meeting and is consistent with the Greenbook forecast--that we would have a return to trend growth a bit later than we had expe... | 1,195 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, and thank everyone. President Lockhart. | 11 |
fomc | 2,007 | I want to make a comment following the remarks of Governor Warsh and Governor Kroszner related to the calendar of potential market stabilization and the leveraged-loan market. Both of you cited a backlog of $300 billion or something maybe slightly less than that. In one conversation I had, a market observer cited $470 ... | 154 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you for the useful discussion. As usual, I am going to very briefly summarize what I heard. I will be happy to take any comments on that. Then I just want to make a few short points. Again, most of the key points have been made. Most participants expect growth to remain moderate over the forecast period. Despite ... | 1,702 |
fomc | 2,007 | 3 Thanks, Mr. Chairman. I'll be referring to the package labeled "Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives." Financial markets have experienced exceptional strains over the intermeeting period. The Bluebook provided a thorough review of these developments through Thursday, and I had intended to provid... | 1,613 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Are there questions of Brian? If not, let's begin our go-round. President Fisher. | 21 |
fomc | 2,007 | Well, Mr. Chairman, against this background of skittishness, my best advice would be to recognize, to an extent, in our statement what is going on in the marketplace, what ails the marketplace. The best guidance would be that we must not ourselves become a tripwire. I think we have to show a steady hand. I rather liked... | 510 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Poole. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It's clear that the markets are very skittish. I haven't heard anyone suggesting that we should be changing the fed funds rate, and I believe we should keep it steady. So what is important now is what we say rather than the federal funds rate. I think that the market is looking to us for leader... | 657 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Stern. | 6 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, I guess the thing that strikes me first about the current situation is that the incoming news on core inflation has been promising. At least as far as I'm concerned, the inflation outlook is satisfactory. So that, in and of itself, suggests no change in policy. Now, if we append to that t... | 300 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Lacker. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think we have a couple of issues in front of us today. First, do we react to the recent inflation numbers? I have been pleased by the recent reports, as I said, coming in better than expected, but there seems to be a substantial chance that the improvement we have seen is temporary and that w... | 497 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Moskow. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | I didn't know I raised my hand, but I'll go anyway. [Laughter] I certainly don't want to recommend a change in the fed funds target at this point, Mr. Chairman, so I agree with alternative B in terms of the fed funds rate portion. I do want to go on record, since this is my last meeting, as saying that I'm not agreeing... | 271 |
fomc | 2,007 | President Pianalto. | 4 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I said earlier, I do think that the risks to the outlook for economic growth have increased while the risks to the outlook for inflation have moderated but are still to the upside. So I found the suggestion on page 25 of the Bluebook that we might want to mix and match the alternative A and ... | 173 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Yellen. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I think the inflation news has continued to be encouraging, but the risks remain on the upside. With respect to growth, the prospects have worsened, and I think there is greater downside risk for the reasons that we have discussed. I think the market response to these events is not inappropriat... | 630 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Hoenig. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Mr. Chairman, a couple of things. First, I am satisfied with the current policy. I think that for the moment our concern should still be on inflation, and I think our policy is designed to address that. In saying that, I also recognize--from my own observations and from what I've heard here today--that more downside ri... | 186 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Plosser. | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am certainly comfortable with maintaining the fed funds rate where it is, so I'm supportive of that. I think the real key here is language. What are we trying to convey to the markets? How far can we go, acknowledging what many people share--a sense of some increased risk--without creating an... | 413 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Lockhart. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I, too, feel that we should hold the rate, so I am concerned principally with the way the statement plays to the various audiences, particularly the market. The posture we should take is to acknowledge, while not reacting prematurely to, the turbulence in the financial markets and the subdued o... | 182 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Rosengren. | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | I support leaving the target for the fed funds rate at 51/4 percent. However, the news since the last meeting would seem to be more elevated downside risk to economic growth. This elevated risk reflects the baseline growth for real GDP as 2 percent (a considerable reduction from the previous Greenbook), greater uncerta... | 219 |
fomc | 2,007 | Okay. Governor Kohn. | 6 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Like the others, I think keeping the federal funds rate where it is is the right thing to do. We need, as others have said, to watch the situation carefully and see how it evolves. I think we're trying to do two things with this statement, as others have remarked. One is to make people aware th... | 889 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Governor Warsh. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Before diving into alternative B, I'd say part of the reason that we are trying on different clothes around the language in alternative B is that we have an odd juxtaposition of growth and inflation at this time. That is because the growth risks seem to be driven largely by a financial market s... | 521 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Governor Kroszner. | 9 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you very much. I also support keeping the fed funds rate unchanged, and I very much agree with the way that Governor Kohn was thinking about what we're trying to achieve. So let me just describe why I think that alternative B as is largely achieves that. The key to my thinking about the decision on changing the s... | 771 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. Governor Mishkin. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Obviously I agree that we should not have a change in the federal funds rate. So I want to talk about the statement. When I think about the statement that I would write, a key thing from my viewpoint is just to ask what the inflation objective is because it really affects the statement in a maj... | 915 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you. President Lacker. | 7 |
fomc | 2,007 | About classic lender-of-last-resort operations, we asked people at the Open Market Desk how much additional reserves it takes to lower the federal funds rate 1/4 percentage point. It is on the order of a couple of ten million--so 75 basis points added maybe $100, maybe $150 million in that instance. You know, I'd ventu... | 183 |
fomc | 2,007 | But there's always an issue about what we mean by the word "classic." What I'm thinking about here is that a lender-of-last-resort operation is really about restoring confidence. It can be done without actually putting any liquidity into the system. If you look at a successful lender-of-last-resort operation, just the ... | 322 |
fomc | 2,007 | All right. Let me get us back to the statement. [Laughter] Vice Chairman Geithner. | 22 |
fomc | 2,007 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Just quickly, I think we are actually all in a fairly similar place, not far apart in our basic diagnosis, and that's good, given the complexity of our decisions going forward in some sense. We want to soften slightly the asymmetry in our current statement to give us a bit more flexibility and ... | 597 |
fomc | 2,007 | May I make a two-handed intervention? | 8 |
fomc | 2,007 | Governor Mishkin. | 4 |
fomc | 2,007 | Could I ask a question of Brian? "Predominant" is a key word. So what do you think might be the response of the markets if we leave it in or take it out, in terms of two elements. One is the issue of how the markets would think about the future evolution of our policy. Two is how the media might read whether we are rea... | 83 |
fomc | 2,007 | Well, as I said earlier, it's a little hard to judge market reactions right now, given the flux in financial markets. That said, I do think that the introduction of "downside risks," as an explicit phrase in the statement will obviously not be overlooked by market participants, [laughter] and I think that they will see... | 107 |
fomc | 2,007 | Right. | 2 |
fomc | 2,007 | I think it is a bigger shift. I think if the first is one unit, the second is maybe two units in terms of how far you go. | 31 |
fomc | 2,007 | President Moskow. | 4 |
fomc | 2,007 | I just have another objection to taking out the word "predominant." I don't think the sentence makes any sense if you take it out. [Laughter] You have to put something in. You cannot say that it is our only problem. | 50 |
fomc | 2,007 | Well, right. You really have to rewrite the sentence. Let me try to evaluate this with your guidance. [Laughter] So I agree with Brian that this is one of the toughest ones to write and to assess the response. If you read the commentary, expectations are all over the map, and so it is very difficult to know how this wi... | 570 |
fomc | 2,007 | Could you clarify? Are you saying that you would then get rid of "credit conditions have become tighter"? | 21 |
fomc | 2,007 | No. "Investors have demanded greater compensation for risk, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses." All right. No excitement. | 29 |
fomc | 2,007 | It is not clear whether probability distributions over the fundamentals have shifted or whether the probability distribution over marginal utility has shifted. Do you see what I mean? | 30 |
fomc | 2,007 | No. [Laughter] | 6 |
fomc | 2,007 | It is not clear whether their attitudes to a given risk have changed or their assessments of the magnitude of the risks have changed. | 25 |
fomc | 2,007 | Oh, I see what you're saying. Well, actually the way I phrased it was intentionally not to say that risks have increased but rather to say that the price of risk has increased. | 38 |
fomc | 2,007 | But that says one of them. That says the latter. | 12 |
fomc | 2,007 | But that's what I want it to say. | 9 |
fomc | 2,007 | But that's not clear. It is not clear that it isn't just a widening of the probability distribution over the relevant outcomes. | 24 |
fomc | 2,007 | Okay. I don't see any snowball. [Laughter] | 13 |
fomc | 2,007 | Don't give up yet. "Risk premiums in financial markets have increased, credit conditions have tightened for some households"--it is true that you don't really know what the source of the increase in risk premiums is, but it is true that risk premiums have increased. Volatility itself is not particularly interesting fro... | 106 |
fomc | 2,007 | No, it encompasses both of what I was referring to, and so that would be a way to do it. | 23 |
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