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fomc | 1,978 | I come out, Mr. Chairman, very close to Henry Wallich's formula of 9-3/4 to 10-1/4 on the funds rate, with the Manager instructed to stay at 9-3/4 unless we have reached the upper limit [on the aggregates]. I think the Manager ought to have at least a half point to operate with. But the only area where I diverge from H... | 138 |
fomc | 1,978 | Thank you, Frank. Larry. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes sir, I would recommend a top of 5 percent for M1 and for M2 a range of 6 to 9 percent. I don't have any comment on M1+. I think it would be desirable to have a fed funds range of 9-3/4 to 10-1/4, moving to 10 right away. And I feel that an aggregates directive would be preferable. | 83 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, thank you all very much. Looking at the voting members for a moment there seems to be a preference for a money market directive. As far as the immediate action on fed funds, there is a very high consensus for 9-3/4 percent. As far as the range is concerned, it appears to be a tossup between 9-1/2 to 10 and 9-3/4 ... | 261 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's tight. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Tight. What would you [change]? | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | I would just point out that the M2 midpoint projection is a little over 8-1/2 percent over the two months. So it's tight. There's a good possibility that the 10 percent funds rate will have to be negotiated with a telephone conference call, but I find it acceptable. | 59 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, does that mean that you are including the language on page 15 under money market emphasis--that we would add that? | 28 |
fomc | 1,978 | On page 15? Well, it would be raised or lowered within the range. That's true, because it could go up and come back down. | 30 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't really think you need the "in an orderly fashion" if you only have a 1/4 point range. | 25 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think that would be a great change. All of the people who would track us carefully would notice that change and figure that it has some significance. So why don't we take that out? | 38 |
fomc | 1,978 | I do think we need more language in here about the international business just to reflect what has been going on. | 22 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think that's a good idea. Incidentally, I didn't even mention M1+; I think we put it in as a side note. I think 2 to 6 or something like that is maybe the best thing to do. | 48 |
fomc | 1,978 | It's very hard to predict it. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Maybe we will just leave it out. Why don't we just leave it out and keep track of it? That will be much better. Then we won't confuse everybody. Would you buy the latest proposal? | 40 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I have the other-- | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Come on now, we haven't any time for messing around. | 12 |
fomc | 1,978 | Let's move the top of M2 down to 9. | 12 |
fomc | 1,978 | No, we can't. You're biasing the result. | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | I want to bias the result. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, I am bothered a little bit about a freeze at 9-3/4. | 21 |
fomc | 1,978 | You mean you are worried about the down side? | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | I'm worried about both the down side and the up side. I'd rather, if we could, buy a 9-7/8 midpoint as the midpoint shown on that range you picked. Actually, I think the range is terribly narrow; 1/4 percentage point gives the Manager very little leeway. | 62 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's a true money market directive. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,978 | If you really want to nail it, then I would rather nail it at 9-7/8 than 9-3/4. | 29 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's a very small point. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | It is, but it's a small point on the other side too, Chuck. | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | Of course, it hasn't been at 9-3/4; if we put it at 9-3/4, we have put it up from where it was. You want to put it up 1/8 point more, apparently. | 51 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Let's find out. There seemed to be quite a majority for a 9-3/4 funds rate at this point. So let's try this one on a straw vote and see what we have. How many of the voting members would accept--I'm not saying would propose but would accept--the proposition I just tried to get out of this? How many would go along with ... | 77 |
fomc | 1,978 | Would you just state it again? | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | A 5 percent cap on M1, a 6 to 9-1/2 range on M2, and a 9-3/4 to 10 range on fed funds, using 9-3/4 as the initial positioning point and a money market directive--and M1+ just tracked on the side. | 68 |
fomc | 1,978 | But with a notion that it probably would be within [2] to 6 percent. | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, tracking it to see how good we are at guessing. How many of you would support that? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. | 36 |
fomc | 1,978 | 5 out of 10. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | I didn't count myself. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think it's 6. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, well-- | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | Can we buy my try at it, Mr. Chairman? Leave everything the same but put the midpoint at 9-7/8. | 28 |
fomc | 1,978 | Sure put it in. The midpoint at 9-7/8. We will take a vote on that. How many would like that? | 29 |
fomc | 1,978 | With 9-1/2 still on M2? | 12 |
fomc | 1,978 | Yes, everything else the same. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | And we consult if these aggregates get high. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Oh, yes. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Okay. I think that's a majority. Now let's take a vote. Let's get the others to swing in and realize that like a convention when they are all through they say, "Mr. Chairman, I move that it be unanimous." There's real opportunity here. | 74 |
fomc | 1,978 | It just shows with Mark that you can't satisfy him very long. We raised [the funds rate] very substantially and he liked it, but now several weeks have gone by and we haven't raised rates anymore. | 41 |
fomc | 1,978 | Three weeks. All right, I'll vote for the Coldwell compromise. | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | Vice Chairman Volcker Yes President Baughman Yes Governor Coldwell Yes Present Eastburn Yes Governor Partee Yes Governor Teeters Yes Governor Wallich Yes President Willes | 33 |
fomc | 1,978 | Come on, Mark. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Abstain? | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Keep with the club. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | We've got a little bit more. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | I didn't hear. Did he have an answer? | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | He hasn't answered yet. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | He abstained. | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | If we would vote for this, we would tolerate almost 12 percent growth in M1 in December before we move. | 24 |
fomc | 1,978 | Assuming November is right. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Which we don't know. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Which we don't know. | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, just a minute now, Willis Winn. | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | I'll go along with it. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | Now Mark. | 3 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, it's not December, but almost. I'll vote yes. | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | A vote for Christmas. Thank you. I think that's the most marvelous vote I have had since I have been here. | 24 |
fomc | 1,978 | What about the language? | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | We did take the money market directive, didn't we? | 11 |
fomc | 1,978 | We did take the money market and we did-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | I have a proposal but I don't [know] whether it's-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | On page 15? | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, on page 14 it refers to [the international situation]. | 14 |
fomc | 1,978 | All right, let's look at page 14. | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I just wrote in a different phrase here [beginning with] the "while" for the first sentence. "In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for the money aggregates cited above, while supporting the objective of sta... | 79 |
fomc | 1,978 | You want to leave in "giving due regard to developing conditions" don't you? And add supporting-- | 20 |
fomc | 1,978 | No, I just left that out and put this in as a substitute. | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | You are [not] going to risk any further rise in the dollar? | 15 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, stabilizing-- | 5 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's what you say--stabilizing the exchange value. You can stabilize both ways, Paul. | 20 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's a very considerable departure from past practice. | 9 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, that's what we just announced that we were doing. | 12 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't think the announcement said that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | We were countering disorder. | 6 |
fomc | 1,978 | We said we are going to call it to a halt and reverse it. Now, you could argue that we are allowing some up-- | 27 |
fomc | 1,978 | That's because the whole market was in considerable disorder. | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | Why don't we just say "support" the value of the dollar? It might get you away from this "stabilization." | 26 |
fomc | 1,978 | I don't want to go toward that. | 8 |
fomc | 1,978 | No, I don't want to go toward that. | 10 |
fomc | 1,978 | Mr. Chairman, "correcting excessive exchange [market fluctuation]" is what we used. | 19 |
fomc | 1,978 | I have no hang-up on the word "stabilizing." I just wrote that in there. | 20 |
fomc | 1,978 | Do we want to leave in this language "giving due regard to developing conditions in domestic markets"? | 19 |
fomc | 1,978 | It just seems too weak to me. I have no problem [leaving] in domestic markets; I just wanted more prominence to the international. After all, this program is certainly-- | 37 |
fomc | 1,978 | I'd buy Paul's wording, with the word "support" instead of "stabilize." | 18 |
fomc | 1,978 | "Giving due regard" could mean anything you want it to. | 13 |
fomc | 1,978 | The trouble is we've used it when we didn't mean much. That's the problem. | 16 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, I think "stabilizing" is not helpful. I think "supporting" or "strengthening" or using the announcement [wording]-- | 33 |
fomc | 1,978 | I think the word "supporting" doesn't go very well with a federal funds range of 1/4 point. | 24 |
fomc | 1,978 | Well, you could say while "supporting" the foreign exchange--or "strengthening." | 19 |
fomc | 1,978 | What's the strengthening? | 4 |
fomc | 1,978 | Strengthening instead of supporting it. | 7 |
fomc | 1,978 | Strengthening what? | 4 |
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