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fomc | 2,008 | President Plosser. | 5 |
fomc | 2,008 | On the inventories and the sequencing, which I think is very interesting because of how it plays out, I learned recently--and you can correct me if this is wrong--that, in the inventory of new homes for sale, the way that's counted includes permits that have been issued even though there's no home that's been built. So... | 161 |
fomc | 2,008 | I don't know what the story is with regard to permits that you're mentioning. I do know that the cancellation rate of new home sales has declined a bit. Previously we were emphasizing that the high level of cancellations that the builders were experiencing was actually causing the supply situation to be even worse than... | 94 |
fomc | 2,008 | President Rosengren, you have been patient. | 10 |
fomc | 2,008 | My question is for Steve. There have been judgmental adjustments to the domestic forecast reflecting financial headwinds in the United States. I'm wondering if we made the same adjustments for financial headwinds in Europe. You highlighted that residential investment looks a bit different in Europe, but they do have a ... | 132 |
fomc | 2,008 | As you correctly point out, Europe, in particular, does indeed have a lot of financial stresses; and some parts of Europe, particularly the United Kingdom as well as Ireland and Spain, are looking at some very serious weaknesses on the housing side. So we are, indeed, kind of in parallel but not exactly the same as our... | 229 |
fomc | 2,008 | I have President Fisher, and then if it's okay with everybody, we should probably start our go-round. President Fisher. | 24 |
fomc | 2,008 | Very quickly, I want to come back to the housing issue. You know, I've been more pessimistic than I think anybody around the table from the standpoint of peak-to-trough correction, and I find the numbers you mentioned very benign relative to my expectations. One issue that I'm trying to understand a little better in te... | 140 |
fomc | 2,008 | We're certainly aware of that. To my eye the numbers look astonishingly negative. For foreclosures, we have 2.5 million foreclosures this year and another 2 million foreclosures next year. We have a very bleak landscape built into the projection. | 52 |
fomc | 2,008 | On that happy note, Mr. Chairman, thank you. | 12 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, President Fisher. The go-round. President Lockhart. | 14 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The contours and basic outcomes of Atlanta's forecast are similar to the baseline of the Greenbook forecast. So I want to focus my remarks this morning on the underlying assumptions in both forecasts--assumptions that I view as pivotal and if we miscalculate could result in a longer-term policy... | 1,274 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Evans. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Overall there has been little change in the sentiment of my business contacts since our last meeting. Most are still reporting sluggish domestic demand with little evidence of any improvement over the near term. On the price front, everyone continued to cite cost pressures. Manufacturers have l... | 1,119 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Fisher. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Mr. Chairman, I may have to leave the lunch early. So before I start, I do want to bid Rick adieu. Rick, I remember describing you as charming in one of our early meetings. You have charmed me by your intellect and devotion. Anyway, I'm going to miss you. So I wanted to say that in case I do have to leave early. Mr. Ch... | 2,164 |
fomc | 2,008 | President Fisher, I'm going to ask you a very innocent question. You've given many chilling anecdotes over the last few meetings about increases in prices, but the official statistics just don't show anything like that outside of oil, gas, gasoline, and the direct commodity price increases. Do you believe that the CPI ... | 65 |
fomc | 2,008 | Well, I do see the CPI rising. The monthly report was not encouraging. The last 12 months have not been encouraging, and I think what worries me is the spread between core and headline. Core is rising as well, by the way. Even our own estimates indicate that. I do see it in headline numbers. The numbers I saw that were... | 307 |
fomc | 2,008 | Governor Mishkin. | 4 |
fomc | 2,008 | I think there's no question that headline inflation is very high right now. Clearly, when you get these kinds of increases in energy prices and food costs, you're going to have to reflect them in current prices. In fact, that's exactly what you need to have happen so that relative prices shift. The reality is that high... | 297 |
fomc | 2,008 | Well, in terms of the weight, again, I'm just one of 17 or 18, and I would weigh it accordingly. But I am worried that we've had a spread between headline and core for a long period now. I am worried that we're seeing core expectations pick up--modestly but they are beginning to pick up. I am worried that core expectat... | 264 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Bullard. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic activity in the Eighth District has remained roughly stable during the summer. Activity in the services sector has increased slightly, and except for the auto industry, manufacturing activity is also stable to slightly higher. Automotive contacts reported a variety of plans to lay off ... | 1,353 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Yellen. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Developments during the intermeeting period have heightened my concern about downside risks to economic growth and slightly allayed my concern about upside risks to inflation. Let me begin with growth. The moderate growth rate registered in the second quarter was disappointing, especially becau... | 1,274 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Pianalto. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. My outlook for economic growth and inflation over the next few years is broadly similar to the one that I held last meeting, although I think that the prospects for both inflation and economic growth in the near term have deteriorated since June. To a close approximation, my outlook ends up loo... | 963 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Plosser. | 8 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Economic conditions in the Third District remain relatively weak, but they are not materially different from what we and our business contacts have been expecting for the past several months. Manufacturing and residential construction sectors continue to show a slow decline. Payroll employment ... | 2,006 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Why don't we take a coffee break until 11:20. | 16 |
fomc | 2,008 | Okay. President Rosengren. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The Boston forecast used for the June meeting expected that the unemployment rate would peak at approximately 5.7 percent. Unfortunately, with the July employment report, the unemployment rate has already reached 5.7 percent, and we expect the economy is likely to grow less than potential for t... | 856 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Lacker. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Before I begin, let me add my words of welcome to Betsy Duke, welcoming Governor Duke back to the Federal Reserve System. I say "back" because she has served excellently on our board of directors beginning almost 1 years ago. She's a fast friend and strong supporter of the Federal Reserve Syste... | 1,881 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Stern. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me make just a few comments about the Greenbook forecast at this point, which I found quite useful for thinking about policy going forward only in part because it is quite close, at least in broad overview, to the forecast I submitted before the June meeting on the economic outlook, inflati... | 388 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Hoenig. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Mr. Chairman, let me say that the Tenth District probably, on the whole, performed a little better than the national average in the industries that we have; but in terms of job growth, it has slowed. At the same time, we're still adding jobs in the region, and our unemployment rate remains relatively low compared with ... | 812 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Vice Chairman. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Like the Greenbook, our modal forecast shows weaker real activity and slightly higher core inflation over the forecast period. Downside risks to growth remain substantial, in my view, and have probably increased relative to what we thought in June. Risks on the inflation front remain weighted t... | 842 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Kohn. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Like others around the table, I made only small revisions to the central tendency of my forecast going forward as a result of the developments of the intermeeting period, maybe a slight reduction in the path of output and a quicker decline in headline inflation owing to the oil prices. But I th... | 1,671 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Warsh. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I have no material changes to report in my view on the overall state of financial stability, growth, or inflation; but as I talked about at the last meeting, it still is likely to be a long, hot summer, and we're only about half over with it. I'll talk first about financial institutions--make m... | 1,678 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Kroszner. | 9 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you very much. We have now had the first anniversary of all the financial turmoil, and how have the markets celebrated? Well, we have had Freddie and Fannie go down and need one of the largest bailouts. We have had IndyMac go down--the second largest bank failure in U.S. history and perhaps the most costly bank f... | 2,001 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Mishkin, your swan song. [Laughter] | 16 |
fomc | 2,008 | Well, I get one more chance in the policy round. That is the one I am going to really go for. I am sure that people are waiting for it. [Laughter] My modal forecast has not changed appreciably. Clearly, I am very concerned about the headwinds as a result of the difficulty in recapitalizing financial institutions, which... | 1,479 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Duke. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I was advised to speak of things I know, so all of my comments will have to do with commercial banks and the traditional banking operations within those banks. Also, they are limited to the market area that I operated in. I was in a large community bank. The primary competitors were 2 of the to... | 1,768 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Michelle, what time is our hard cutoff here? | 13 |
fomc | 2,008 | We can be pretty flexible. We're okay. | 9 |
fomc | 2,008 | You want it before 2:15, though. All right. Well, I spent a lot of time through the meeting and during the break working up a crystalline summary of the discussion. [Laughter] But I am a bit concerned about getting to lunch and avoiding the 2:15 hard deadline; so if you would excuse me, this time I will just go directl... | 2,227 |
fomc | 2,008 | 2 Thank you, Mr. Chairman. If you prefer, in the interest of time, I can cut back my remarks to focus just on the policy statement and not the general background. I will be referring to the version of table 1 included in the package labeled "Material for FOMC Briefing on Monetary Policy Alternatives." This version inco... | 1,012 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Any questions for Brian? President Fisher. | 11 |
fomc | 2,008 | In terms of the wording in paragraph 3, if we do not raise rates, I am wondering why the second sentence that is now in alternative C wouldn't be more appropriate for alternative B, and I am wondering what your thinking is about that. In other words, if we don't take action, that seems to be a more emphatic statement t... | 234 |
fomc | 2,008 | I would say, President Fisher, that the substitution that you are suggesting seems plausible to me, but I would also say that the first sentence of alternative B already does suggest some pretty significant concerns about inflation. | 41 |
fomc | 2,008 | All right. Any other questions? Let me start, then, with President Yellen. | 18 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I favor alternative A--no change in the funds rate and a balanced assessment of risks designed to leave market expectations concerning the path of the funds rate roughly unchanged. Oops, I made a mistake, there is no A. [Laughter] So I propose to create it by changing the wording of the first s... | 664 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Evans. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. A funny thing happened at my board meeting the other week. I was all set to prepare them not for a rate change recommendation this time but for one in the not-too-distant future. By the time I was done, they were asking what the procedure was for dissenting from my recommendation. So, in fact, ... | 849 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. I would just note on the "unusual and exigent" issue that there are two schools of thought. The other school is the one you said, which is that having done this, we would have the freedom to raise rates; so I think it sort of cuts both directions. President Lockhart. | 64 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. In the interest of time, I will be very brief. I support alternative B in substance and concur with its wording. I think we are in a delicate rhetorical balancing act at this stage, and as Brian described, the slightly greater emphasis on inflation is appropriate at this time. I think alternati... | 87 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Hoenig. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate the fact that reasonable people may differ, and I do differ. In saying that, I am not advocating a tight monetary policy. I am advocating a less accommodative monetary policy. I recognize Governor Kohn's point that relative prices are adjusting, and others have made that point. I t... | 412 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Bullard. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am going to make my remarks a little shorter here. My judgment is that the current situation is a difficult one for the Committee. Because of the very appropriate focus on financial market turmoil over the past year, our attention has naturally turned away from keeping the level of interest r... | 778 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Kohn. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support keeping the federal funds rate at 2 percent for now. I think that is consistent with bringing inflation down over time. I agree that we're going to have to tighten at some point. I agree with your analysis, Mr. Chairman--I don't think we have a highly accommodative policy right now. N... | 449 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Pianalto. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As I indicated in the earlier go-round, I found the balance of risks to economic growth and inflation to be essentially the same. So other things being equal, I might prefer to have risk assessment language that is even more balanced than the risk assessment language that is presented in altern... | 313 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Stern. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I favor alternative B and the language as displayed here. Let me say a few words about the issue of withdrawal of accommodation, which I've been giving thought to and will want to give more thought to over time. Earlier today I talked about the Greenbook forecast and indicated that I found it c... | 377 |
fomc | 2,008 | President Lacker. | 4 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. For my part, our exchanges have in the past been predicated on nothing but the utmost respect. I expect that to continue. If I have done anything or said anything to contribute to any other impression, I regret it, and I apologize. | 56 |
fomc | 2,008 | That wasn't my intention, President Lacker. | 9 |
fomc | 2,008 | In the interest of avoiding talking past each other, let me say a bit about why I view real rates as low. I recognize what you and Governor Kohn said about other interest rates. But when I look at the low real rate now and at times in the past when it has been low and I look at things like corporate borrowing rates the... | 297 |
fomc | 2,008 | You raise a good point--that we ought to look empirically at the relationship between borrowing rates and the federal funds rate in this episode and other episodes, which we really haven't done. So we need to do that. Thank you. | 47 |
fomc | 2,008 | I'll dispense with the rest of my prepared remarks and just say that I recognize the real risks ahead of us. We've experienced sluggish growth, and all the downside risks to growth that have been enumerated are very tangible and very plausible right now. I think we should hold off raising rates at this meeting, but I'm... | 255 |
fomc | 2,008 | President Rosengren. | 5 |
fomc | 2,008 | I support alternative B. I would actually prefer President Yellen's language but definitely believe that we should have the word "also" in there. Tightening at this time would sap more strength from an already weak economy, and should the forecast look like the "severe financial stress" scenario or the "typical recessi... | 137 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Fisher. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Well, Mr. Chairman, I'm already out of the closet in terms of my economic proclivities. I realize it's awkward for some folks, but I haven't heard enough today that would change my view that we are running an over-accommodative monetary policy. I agree with your point very much that the rates and the terms being faced ... | 403 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. President Plosser. | 8 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. As you can imagine, as we've discussed, this meeting presents a difficult policy position for us--and for me in particular. I think we must pay careful attention to the financial market volatility; and to the extent that it has consequences for the real economy, I'm certainly sensitive to that ... | 799 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Warsh. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I'll be brief. I favor alternative B as written and presented. I think it strikes the right balance by highlighting the risks that we see on the inflation front, and I agree with Brian's characterization that the capital markets' reaction might be a little surprise. It is hard for us in a time ... | 203 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Kroszner. | 9 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. I support no change, alternative B. As I mentioned before, I don't want to put the commodity price decreases and energy price decreases in the bank and say we don't have any problems going forward. But we also can't ignore them, and I think that does take off a bit of the pressure. It also manifests itself i... | 265 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Governor Mishkin. | 7 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Just let me talk a little about monetary policy, and I'll be brief there. But then I have to use my opportunity to raise some issues for the Committee when I'm not here. I do support alternative B. As is obvious from my earlier discussion, I believe that the risks are balanced. I have one modif... | 2,293 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Governor Mishkin. Governor Duke. | 10 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. I support alternative B. I don't think that the "severe financial stress" scenario is out of the question right now. | 28 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. Vice Chairman. | 6 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I support alternative B for the reasons that you and many others have already stated. | 23 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you. I want to thank everyone for your comments today. I know we don't have agreement around the table, but as somebody once said, if everybody agrees, then everybody except one is redundant. [Laughter] I listened very carefully to what has been said. I understand your concerns. I think hard about them--I do ever... | 366 |
fomc | 2,008 | Yes. This vote includes the alternative B language from the table distributed this morning and the directive from the Bluebook. "The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output. To further its long-run objectives, the Co... | 126 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you very much. The next meeting is September 16, and we will adjourn now to the Terrace Level of the Martin Building to pay honor to Governor Mishkin. Thank you very much. | 40 |
fomc | 2,008 | Good morning, everybody. Sorry for the late beginning. The markets are continuing to experience very significant stresses this morning, and there are increasing concerns about the insurance company AIG. That is the reason that Vice Chairman Geithner is not attending, and Chris Cumming will sit in his place. I want to t... | 371 |
fomc | 2,008 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am not going to go through this in great detail. You can look at these charts at your leisure. 1 I am going to focus on what is going on right now, how we have responded to it, and what I think the issues are. Just to give you a snapshot of what has happened since Sunday evening, stocks are d... | 2,126 |
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