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fomc
1,979
We, the Federal Reserve had?
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we, the United States government.
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I feel closest to the same reasoning Henry [cited] unless somebody says there's a strong advantage to it.
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An overriding political reason.
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I'm not understanding. Phil, you have confused me. You said you didn't see a reason not to do it becaue it didn't cost us anything. And now you're saying you are opposed to it.
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No. What I said, Mr. Chairman, was that I agree it doesn't cost us anything. But I think it has to be demonstrated that there's an overriding political gain to be achieved by this. I would oppose it otherwise.
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Scott, did you have anything that you wanted to ask?
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No. I'm just wondering [howl we would come out on it and what somebody will say to the Mexicans that will--
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We haven't come out yet.
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I'm not sure I'd use the word "overriding"but I certainly agree that there's no point in making a gesture unless somebody knows we are making a gesture.
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Use the word "advantage."
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MY problem on this is that there may be an advantage in our relations directly with the Bank of Mexico. There's a concern that they have and that we have on the financial side. There are a lot of political deals being struck on oil, on emigration, and so forth. [Say] all of a sudden the State Department on our side and...
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The bottom line, M r . Chairman, is that I think I'd insist on the Treasury joining us.
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I assume it's irrelevant, Mr. Chairman, that they have recently been [picking] up a fair amount of [large denomination] bills from the El Paso branch.
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Mr. Chairman, if we are going to go for letting them down easy or if we put conditions on it by working for the Treasury's participation, I think we lose whatever advantage might be gained in doing it. So I think we either do it in a way that seems obviously forthcoming and cooperative or we don't do it.
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Maybe I misunderstood or maybe it has been misstated. I did not view this as a political issue. I viewed this as [a means of] improving relations with the United States on the initiative of the [Mexican central] bank. I have never heard from the State Department or anyone else on the subject. [Bank of Mexico officials]...
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Let's have our December meeting in Acapulco!
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Pardon me? Oh, you want to go down and negotiate in Acapulco you say? Oh, shucks. Well, I'll take this under advisement. They don't need to know immediately. Maybe if I get any thoughts from the counsel you have given, we'll come back with a particular suggestion--either that we have a timetable or a different approach...
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I might say for the benefit of those who have just come in that we had a little executive session to do some important business, the first item of which was to elect a Chairman. I'm not sure whether it's entirely appropriate that I announce my election, but it proceeded. I should also say that this is the first time th...
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Is it possible to figure out the unrealized gain or loss on the account, and have you tried to do so?
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Governor Wallich, I have with me today Dave Robinson who is the Manager of the audit team, and I'll turn the question over to him.
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Which account are you talking about, the domestic or the foreign?
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Domestic. On the foreign side I take it that the rule of [FASB 88] requires us to revalue these assets continuously but I don't believe there is a similar rule for the domestic assets.
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Governor, I don't believe we made any attempt to do that. In our efforts we only made an attempt to verify the balances as they were reflected on the records of the Bank.
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Do you see the possibility of doing that? Are there technical difficulties?
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Why would you want to do it?
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Well, I'd like to know--
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Whether it's below water? But we're not going to liquidate the account.
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--where we stand. For one thing it would be helpful if we find that we're taking a loss on foreign exchange transactions to remember that the loss may be offset [by gains on the domestic side].
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That's the reason.
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What's the average length of the System portfolio at this time? Do you have that, Peter--or someone?
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It's in the area of 4 to 6 years--something like that.
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Oh, really that long?
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I had no idea it was that long. That adds a little maybe to the reason for Henry's question.
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It's probably completely under water then!
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I would have thought it was more like 2 years.
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It shatters his hopes of having an offset, though.
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fomc
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Well, my impression of this examination, Mr. Chairman, was that the books balance and that all the tests they've made indicate that the books are being kept in adequate fashion.
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That is correct. We also did a sample of the transactions of the Federal Open Market Trading Desk and ascertained whether the directive was being carried out. All those cases in the random sample indicated that it was.
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It was a random sample, I trust?
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A random sample, yes.
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I have no problems with this. I move we approve it.
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Second.
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Without objection, so ordered. Foreign currency operations. Mr. Pardee.
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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. [Statement--see Appendix.]
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Any questions or comments?
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Scott, do you think the market would respond favorably if there were to be a package that included new Carter bonds? Is that a valuable feature to them?
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To some people in the market it would be helpful, yes. Others would not pay too much attention to it, particularly since it's something that had been announced before as part of the November 1st package. But a package usually has something for everybody and there are some who would think that the Carter bonds would be ...
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Do you think they'd respond one way or another to forward operations?
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It depends on what's coming along with it. The forward market operations right now alone, without any other change, would be seen as a tactical exercise. It's in some ways weaker than spot operations and may be seen as a fallback position on the part of the authorities. Forward operations combined with other activity c...
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Scott, what is your reaction to this discussion that seems to be going on in a number of quarters about a competitive interest rate "war" between various countries in the world, including the United States?
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Well, I don't know; war is a very strong term. But clearly, as I indicated in my [remarks]--and we've felt this for several months--the response of the central banks and the authorities in Europe is that with higher rates of inflation coming about from the oil price increase and from stronger domestic economies, they h...
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I don't think there's much substance to that now, Phil, but I think it's a useful question to ask oneself about what might happen later in the year. When I look at all these interest rate changes abroad, there's a pretty straightforward justification in terms of their own domestic situations--with rising inflation and ...
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Well, I wasn't implying criticism. I was just questioning the market reaction to this type of--
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There is a feeling that there is a war going on. I think it's overstated.
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The British [action] is a change in policy, and to some degree it looks like the Canadians might be included in that.
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The British is a change in policy but it's often stimulated by the exchange rate. In fact, they don't like the exchange rate consequences, as near as I can read it. Larry Roos.
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Scott, in your report you alluded to some apprehension or nervousness in the market in relation to this meeting today. Is that nervousness that we may tighten monetary policy or that we may continue to vacillate? What did you mean by that?
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If you talk to different people, they would give you a different [answer regarding the] nature of the apprehension. I gave you a list of the things that people are bearish about with respect to the rest of [our country's] economic policy and there's still some hope that the Federal Reserve is here and doing its job. [A...
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But the bearishness is essentially a concern about expanding inflation? Is that what you mean?
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No, no. These guys are making bets--and that's what they're doing--on whether interest rates are going to be higher after the meeting or not. And how much higher is part of the bet.
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Doesn't their major concern pertain to their inflationary expectations for the United States? If we came to grips or appeared to come to grips with inflation along the lines of the new Chairman's statements, wouldn't that have a constructive effect on the value of the dollar?
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Certainly, if there was a feeling that the actions of the Committee would lead to a reduction in inflation. But again, I'm very cautious about what people are doing on the Friday and Monday before an FOMC meeting. They're just aligning themselves to be in a particular position to anticipate some action which if it come...
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John Balles.
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I'll approach it from a different way and make it a little more specific. Would you care to speculate, Scott, on what good it might do vis-a-vis market expectations and psychology if we were to snug up a bit more on both the discount rate and the federal funds rate--in a range of 1/4 point to possibly 1/2 point?
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Well, it would help with those who are interested in responding to that sort of thing. But as I say, there's a deeper root of concern about the dollar. As long as the Federal Reserve is doing what people think the Federal Reserve should do--and again these are people in financial markets and they are more inclined to l...
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Scott, has the market changed its attitude at all about intervention?
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Well, I don't know which attitude you mean. Again, they expect us to be there. If we aren't, then everybody will be very disappointed and we'd have a real problem on our hands. So we have to show up when the problems do emerge.
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My impression though is that they're not willing to challenge us--
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Oh, yes they are.
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--on the total of intervention. In other words, they're not willing to push us into saying okay we'll put $10 billion into this package.
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Well, that's part of the package idea. There are those who are touting a package, who call in and say you guys need a package and one of the elements is the fact that $30 billion won't do it. As for the November 1st package, for all we know you've spent it all already. It's that sort of thing. So then you get in the id...
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Most of what I wanted to ask, Mr. Chairman, has been asked. But, Scott, in retrospect do you think we would have been significantly better off so far as the dollar is concerned if we had moved the discount rate one point instead of a half point?
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I don't know. I'm trying to interpret a wide range of things without trying to interpose my own views, so I'm not sure. In view of what was going on at that time, I think what was given was a signal of concern by the Federal Reserve, and that's what the market wanted. That's what it got, and anything more than a signal...
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Is it possible at the present time to put a ranking on the various factors that the market weighs in looking at the exchange rate? In other words, in the current account there's improvement; inflation, no improvement; interest rates, a deterioration. What weights should one assign to these?
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Well, I just had a lecture from a chartist so I'm not sure what weights to apply myself these days. I think basically we come back to the fact that [market participants] are looking for fundamental improvement. This is what the market is looking for. This is what the corporate treasurers are waiting for. At this stage ...
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Would an improvement in the current account, which seems very likely, make up for failure to improve on inflation?
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With some it would help. It will change the balance in the market.
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Henry, I'd say that clearly inflation would be number one on their minds. If we had some good price statistics, that would help a great deal. Second, I think is merchandise trade; third, current account; and fourth, interest rates.
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But don't those weights change? Those are the weights today, but the--
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Sure they do. But right now I think those would be the important things in that order, roughly.
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We have to ratify the transactions, if you are willing to ratify the transactions. Without objection, they are ratified. Maybe we can take up this Mexican swap issue. Scott has distributed a memorandum. We had some material last month and there was a preliminary discussion. Is there anything you want to say, Scott?
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Well, simply that it's the Manager's job to make a recommendation and I personally favor this. But [let me cite] the kinds of arguments that the Mexicans raise.
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Let me supplement that a bit. So I would be favorably inclined but I want to hear what other people have to say. Phil.
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Mr. Chairman, I've done quite a bit of thinking about this since we had a discussion on this the last time. At that time I took a position that it was a costless operation in the sense of just raising the swap line, but since then I've had some second thoughts. Yes, it's costless in the sense that we could raise the le...
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I agree with that wholly in substance and I think it's as simple as that. So while I agree with you fully in substance--and as I say I think they would, too, as a theoretical matter--in practice I do not feel that we can press them because I think their argument on the other side is rather impregnable. This is an incre...
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From $360 million to $700 million.
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So it's an increase of $340 million; [I wondered] whether a more modest increase might do the job. I came to the personal conclusion that fiddling around on the amount--cutting it in half or something and ending up with $850 million or whatever--just didn't amount to enough to quibble about. I think you have a very str...
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If approved, when it is announced would we announce that it was in response to a request from the Bank of Mexico?
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Well, I think these things are probably routinely announced deadpan--by saying there's an increase period.
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Mr. Chairman, that's what we had thought. Something would go into the Policy Record. In the past, there has usually been a sentence of explanation. I would think, without having heard the Committee's discussion, that it would say something about at the request of the Bank of Mexico and in light of expanding financial r...
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I have worried about the precedent [issue] that Phil raised, too. I think that is a negative; it is a question of weighing that. Scott may want to speak to this, but we have the precedent of a swap with Mexico; and Mexico is a big trading partner right next door. I think it is adequately distinguishable from any other ...
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We have a $2 billion [swap line] with Canada.
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I share Phil's concern about the precedent I am somewhat concerned, however, about what would happen--the matter having come this far--if we were not to approve it. Would there be adverse [consequences]?
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Scott, do you want to respond to both the precedent point and this one?
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No, [what you said] is fine.
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I'd like to move approval, Mr. Chairman.
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Do we have a second? I'm just going forward here with an orderly procedure. Henry.
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I would like to associate myself with the precedent concern. The State Department has always thought that the Federal Reserve might be a source of credit in one situation or another. They have a low level project going to that effect on how we could lend to LDCs. And it will not be completely easy next time, [when] rel...
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Paul, could I ask one more question? Are there any implications if we were to have a less than unanimous vote on this? Is this made public, Murray?
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