Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Mayo. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I have increasing difficulty in trying to define how tight credit is. We see the ambivalence, if one can use that term, in our own area with farm credit, small business credit, credit for builders and so forth very tight. Banks are very tight and it doesn't filter down like it's supposed to in a fluid sys... | 203 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, perhaps not in complete answer but in partial answer, President Mayo, I would think that the availability of Euro-dollar funds abroad has made it necessary to have interest rates a little higher in this market than we would otherwise because large firms can simply borrow a little cheaper abroad than they can here... | 177 |
fomc | 1,979 | So you think we can offset the availability through the rate? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | If we can't, I think we probably have to throw out the history of economics. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are you suggesting, Mr. Mayo, that we ought to think about some kind of moral suasion? | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm raising the issue, Paul. I haven't made up my own mind on it. It's an issue that we have not discussed around this table in this cycle and we certainly did five years ago. | 39 |
fomc | 1,979 | Do you have any concluding comment you would like to make? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, I'm throwing this up for grabs at this point. I don't know how to attack the moral suasion issue this time, Paul, because of the availability of such a flood of funds in the international markets. We are not talking about what was an attempt in a mild way at "credit allocation"--if I may use the naughty tern--five ... | 205 |
fomc | 1,979 | Some of this borrowing from abroad, I think, is just borrowing back money that Americans put abroad in the first place. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's true | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not sure how much, net, there is. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, to the extent oil money or OPEC money is involved and that's sloshing around, that somehow gets to the big banks and insulates them from monetary policy. I hope that Steve's answer on [rates] is an accurate statement. I certainly do. | 54 |
fomc | 1,979 | Obviously, if anybody else wants to comment on this question, I would be delighted to have the comments. My own feeling has been that it's probably pretty late in the day to begin talking about moral suasion. I don't know whom we would morally persuade. | 51 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's the real problem. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | We may do more damage, unless we see particular speculative problems and takeovers or whatever. I'm not sure [how we can succeed in3 that process. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | On this issue, Paul, I hear more comment in the market about credit controls of various types as the way of doing it to avoid Reg-- | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | My response would be a fortiori applied to credit controls. I don't know what we want to control at this particular point in the cycle, but--. Mr. Kimbrel. | 37 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, from our vantage point we are seeing some contrasting developments early on. The farmers are very excited; generally expectations are for one of the best farm years ever. Business people are still reading the papers and saying " I read that but I don't feel it in my business." Developments in residential ... | 464 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Black. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, I don't have any serious quarrel with the staff's projections on the economy. But I think they are probably on the optimistic side, if they've missed, because it seems to me that this trouble we have is more in the nature of a worldwide problem with the petroleum shortage, inflation, and turmoil in the ... | 856 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not quite sure what target you are talking about, Bob. Maybe you can-- | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | This is M1, Mr. Chairman. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Did you say a 6 percent midpoint on our range? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's what it would be pre-ATS | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Pre any ATS. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right, without any ATS. I believe that's what we were thinking about. Then you remember we went to 1-1/2 to 4 - l / 2 percent, which gave u s a 3 percent midpoint when we thought the ATS effects were-- | 55 |
fomc | 1,979 | You are talking about a concept that isn't portrayed on our nice little charts at all. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | He's adding the ATS back in | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. I think that's the way we have to judge it. At least we have to clear up that confusion ourselves. Lord help you when you have to explain this to the Congress and to the public because I get confused every time I think about it! When we get down to the specifics, I would like to propose that we take some ... | 95 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mrs. Teeters. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think you have overlooked that [Ml growth in] August came in at 6 . 8 percent. We haven't had a continuous 10 percent rate of growth; at the end of August the rate of growth of the money supply dropped. And if you look closely, it's in currency. The rate of increase in demand deposits has been coming down a l l summe... | 441 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not sure it is a fact that everybody's paying more than the prime rate. There are still some reports around that quite a few people are paying less than prime. | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | And the compensating balances. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't know why that should be-- | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, the competition of the European banks is a major factor. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, it's very short-term money | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm not sure it's all short term. I think it's probably bigger-- | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think Nancy's point is that most borrowers pay something more [than prime] and a 20 percent compensating balance. | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | There are reports that some banks are still making fixed rate loans at something less than prime. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Furthermore, there was actually an announcement by the Bank of America that it was going to make automobile loans at 12 percent--a lower rate just to help out the automobile dealers as a sales mechanism. It would be an unusual situation, but it certainly doesn't indicate much tightening. | 55 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Morris. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I sort of lean [in the same direction as] Dave Eastburn and Nancy Teeters at this juncture. The evidence seems to me to indicate that recession momentum is gathering force very rapidly and that the recession is likely to be more severe than the staff forecasts. I had hoped, since it was the best forecast recession ever... | 559 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Timlen. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, you expressed some interest in the discount rate actions at the Reserve Banks. Two weeks ago the directors of the [unintelligible] New York Bank voted a 114 percent increase in the discount rate. When the officers came in that morning, they were very troubled as to what our recommendation should be on the... | 530 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Partee. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I've been gone for a couple of a weeks and I feel a little out of it. A significant recession is not a certainty but it's a high probability. One could read this as an automobile-led correction and a shift in real income from consumers to producers and distributors of oil, both of which have had a marked effect o... | 427 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Balles. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I was going to ask Nancy if that explosion in currency is a part of the underground economy that she testified on. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's the Susan B. Anthony dollar. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | How much of that is the Susan B. dollar? There were $300 million of those going out beginning in July? | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, in addition to the Sunbelt, the area west of the Rockies is not feeling very much if any recession yet. Aerospace, electronics, and agriculture in general are all quite strong. One indication is that the [volume of] help wanted ads in the Los Ancreles Times is almost unreal. The latest count that I heard from som... | 1,158 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's a good leading indicator, John! | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | Until I see it, I guess I'm not going to believe it. I am concerned on balance that it may not have been bad that we had a real surge in monetary and credit expansion because of this recession. But I think we may have overdone that in view of the continued problem of getting inflation under control. So I would vote for... | 74 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Rice. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, probably not surprisingly, I would associate myself with the remarks made by Dave Eastburn, Nancy Teeters, Frank Morris, and Chuck Partee. I can therefore be very brief. I think it's time to give more weight to what is happening in the real economy. The economy is clearly weakening; the staff analysis is ... | 414 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Winn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I guess we're going to have to rearrange the seating here a little; we're kind of [taking] sides and I'm out of place here in terms of my approach! I think we're dealing with expectations in a variety of ways, and when we [focus on1 our cyclical analysis we forget the changes in price behavior that we're faced with. [P... | 590 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Guffey. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. With respect to economic conditions in the Tenth District, we are enjoying--as others have said regarding the agricultural area--probably the finest crop in history. And it's a reality; most of it is already [harvested] or is ready to come into the bins. The problem has been more real in the se... | 823 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I think we've had some barnyard reasoning! Mr. Roos, would you like to make a few comments? | 25 |
fomc | 1,979 | First of all, being from the other end of the same rural state, I would have to disagree with Roger's analogy. When one prepares a chicken for serving, one usually has the best results if the dish is served up without any guts, whereas I think monetary policy--well, I'll stop at that. I'd like to take up very briefly s... | 219 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are you projecting a boom now for the next 6 months, Mr. ROOS? | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. I hear some of my friends say that we have moved interest rates up 100 basis points. I don't think we moved those rates; I think strong credit demand and inflationary expectations moved those rates up. If anything, we have leaned against what the [increase in rates1 would have been had we not expanded the money su... | 364 |
fomc | 1,979 | Have you any brief wisdom from the upper Midwest, Mr. Gainor? | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | I will be brief, Mr. Chairman. We feel a bit behind the times in the Ninth District. We hear in the national press that the recession is half over and it hasn't even hit us yet. Unemployment is very low in our District, less than 3 percent, and labor markets are tight. Industrial production is strong. The only question... | 188 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Schultz. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I've only been on this [Committee] for six weeks and we're having a little barnyard humor, so I'll just say that unfortunately I feel like the little boy who dropped his bubble gum in the barnyard! It's a very difficult time to be here. I think we have a Hobson's choice. It seems to me that the likelihood is that... | 408 |
fomc | 1,979 | I have failed in one of my objectives, which was to get us out to the coffee break early. Perhaps reflecting my long experience in this particular chair, Mr. Schultz, the decisions don't get any easier from meeting to meeting. If we have a geometric progression, I'll really be in trouble at the next meeting! Let me jus... | 1,111 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't think this gavel has ever been used before in these meetings. It's not very tight. Mr. Altmann, will you please take care of repairing the gavel? Well, let me just try to get something on the table that seems to approach most closely a concensus in numerical terms and you can take whatever shots at it you would... | 296 |
fomc | 1,979 | You shouldn't cut a point and a half off the top of M2 for that M1 change. M1 is about half the [M21 total. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | Are you saying that is consistent? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | No. it is not consistent. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | 6-1/2 to 10-1/2. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, that might be pretty close. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | The current projection for M2 is what? | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | 9-1/2 percent. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | 9-1/2. All right, let me modify my suggestion for M2 to 6-1/2 to 10-1/2 percent. Who wants to shoot? | 38 |
fomc | 1,979 | Please state them again, Mr. Chairman. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | For M2, with Mr. Partee's modification, 6-1/2 to 10-1/2 percent; 3 to 8 percent on M1; 11-1/4 to 11-3/4 percent on the funds rate, meaning we would go to 11-1/2 percent. And I would interpret this to mean that we wouldn't go above 11-1/2 percent unless the aggregates got to or above the upper ends of the ranges that we... | 106 |
fomc | 1,979 | This is a money market directive? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that probably implies a money market directive but in a sense, if we give full weight to the projections we now have, we're starting out in the upper part of the ranges. | 37 |
fomc | 1,979 | We're above the range [for Ml]. Isn't September projected at 10 percent? | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I was talking about the two-month projection. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | What is the projection? | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | 7 percent. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's 7 percent, so we're within the range but in the upper part of it. In effect by moving to 11-1/2 percent [on the funds rate], if we adopt this philosophy, we wouldn't move further unless growth actually got to or above the upper ends of these specified ranges. I'm just putting this on the table. Let's hear what com... | 76 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm very much in tune with that, Mr. Chairman. That's almost my prescription. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Larry Roos. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | I believe our range last month for M1 was 4 to 8 and you would adjust it to 3 to 8 percent. The 8 percent bothers me, Mr. Chairman, because that 8--when we add 1-1/2 for ATS--means we really would tolerate a 9-1/2 percent growth in M1 if we let M1 go to the top of these specifications. That's a heck of a growth rate if... | 154 |
fomc | 1,979 | Except that the lower limit does keep us from moving [the funds rate] down. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we're already there if September comes in as expected at 10 percent; that is 5 percent for the two months. So it would take 6 percent [growth] to move up. That's not a great deal and yet it is a very high rate if, as Larry says, [we tolerate1 8 percent plus 1-1/2 for ATS. On the down side, the 3 percent, we'd hav... | 154 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're assuming in these calculations that we know the second half of September, which we don't really know. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I say, Mr. Chairman, technically the ATS effects recently have been running only 1/2 percent, not 1-1/2 percent. | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | May I ask a question about the ATS effects? Is that for the whole year, Steve, or were you talking about recent months? | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | I was referring to the recent months. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm sorry, Henry, I didn't understand your recommendation. | 11 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that 8 percent is high, and I think the 3 percent, while it accomplishes my purpose of avoiding a decline [in the funds rate1 is almost unrealistic because it means, assuming September comes in as projected, that we have to have minus 4 percent [Ml growth] in October. And that doesn't seem very likely. so just ... | 114 |
fomc | 1,979 | As I observe these figures from week to week, there is nothing one can assume about the last two weeks of September. | 24 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.