Source stringclasses 1
value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
|---|---|---|---|
fomc | 1,979 | Yes. That's what would appear in the formal record, whether or not we consulted later. Then in starting off, I would suggest a mild further bias. I think the discount rate in a sense is a bias to start with, at least to get the federal funds rate up. And there's a bias in the sense that these projections, if they mean ... | 298 |
fomc | 1,979 | The borrowing is a starting point, I think. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | We would be biased toward a slightly higher level of borrowing unless we found the funds rate going to 14, 15 percent. If that appeared to be happening, we just wouldn't bias it at that point. That should be consistent with all these relationships, though it would never work out in practice on a weekly basis. Doing not... | 91 |
fomc | 1,979 | M r . Chairman, if I may [ask a question]. I assume that means, in giving Peter some estimate of the nonborrowed [reserve objective], he might start with a level of borrowing that is somewhat higher than the $1.1 to $1.3 billion it has been running on average in the past 3 or 4 weeks. So initially in constructing the p... | 117 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that would be the initial assumption. But if the funds rate goes up well beyond the 13 percent area, and if we still had time in the week, I think you would reverse the bias. | 42 |
fomc | 1,979 | Just to pin it down, are you thinking of $1.5 billion? | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, in a way I'm a little puzzled because our knowledge of the relationships comes through a whole span of rates. As we get to very high rates, it may be that banks' willingness to borrow becomes stronger. If their willingness to borrow is about the way it has been, I would be thinking about $1.5 billion. But the ban... | 95 |
fomc | 1,979 | Don't forget, there is estimating in this procedure. We don't know from day to day what the level of borrowing is going to be for the week, particularly when there's so much of it on the last day. So what we are looking at is some guess of what the borrowing is going to be for the week. Peter might be sitting there wit... | 155 |
fomc | 1,979 | My guess, for what it's worth at this point, is that pushing borrowing to a billion and a half dollars might tend to push the funds rate higher, but that's just my feeling. | 37 |
fomc | 1,979 | Higher than 13 percent? | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | There is a possibility it might go the other way, though. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, it might go the other way, in which case we would retain the bias. None of this is going to be cleared up until the end of the statement week; that's the nature of it. I think you ought to have a better estimate than usual of what the borrowings will be this week because you know what the total reserves are going ... | 108 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we know what the borrowings are going to be. We can tell that. It's a question of what rates are going to fall out of those borrowings. | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, you can't even tell what the borrowings are going to be because you don't know what excess reserves are going to be. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right; we know what free reserves are going to be. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Another tricky little thing, if we are going to start something [different] as of right now, is that we are within a statement week. The statement week has just two days left as well as a partial holiday, which is usually associated with lousing up the estimates. So there may not be very much of-- | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | Oh, I don't know what we do in these two days. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Play it by ear. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Play it by ear the first two days. And one of those two days is a Wednesday, so-- | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | Would you expect to get action from us and our boards of directors on Monday? | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we have a request for a [discount rate] increase of 1 percentage point, so the Board can act. And I still don't know whether we are going to be making this announcement this afternoon or not. If we are, I don't know what you can do [about contacting your directors] on Saturday, anyway. If we are not going to anno... | 93 |
fomc | 1,979 | We can get them on Sunday M F t . MAYO. We could probably get some of them, but with it being a long weekend in Chicago-- | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's not a good idea if you are going to wait until Monday. | 14 |
fomc | 1,979 | Since you've already got the [request on the discount] rate. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, may I make a strong plea that you allow the rest of us to get in on this [discount rate action]? Some of our directors in San Francisco were [pushing] strongly for [an increase such as1 this in our last telephone meeting a week ago. I asked them to hold off until we could--1 did not say it in these words ... | 144 |
fomc | 1,979 | The foreign exchange markets are open. M F t . MORRIS. We can't wait. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let's come back to that at the end; let's finish this meeting. Is that broadly agreeable as an alternative package? | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | Paul, I missed the aggregates figures that you proposed. Are they the same as you had before? | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | The aggregates are the ones on the right-hand side of page 3 , recognizing that we'd rather miss on the low side than the high side. | 29 |
fomc | 1,979 | A little on the low side. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, I don't agree with you. | 8 |
fomc | 1,979 | The alternative, it seems to me--though we could fiddle around with the percentages--would be basically the same. We'd do the same reserve requirement change. We'd do the same with the discount rate. And then we'd move the federal funds rate basically to 13 percent, and put a 12-1/2 to 13-1/2 percent range on it, say. ... | 134 |
fomc | 1,979 | Reserve requirements? | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Yes, the reserve requirement [change would be the same]. I think that's essentially it. I don't think I left anything out here [relating to the provision of] reserves. | 36 |
fomc | 1,979 | Targets? | 2 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think the same. We've got to have a money supply target, which I presume would be the same. However, any of those [targets] could be altered. MR. ALTMA". Are they the same as under the existing directive? | 49 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, the same as in package number 1. So it's a longer time horizon [for the money supply target] than we would ordinarily have. And if that objective is stated another way, it would have to be interpreted that if [money growth] were running ahead of this track, we would use the upper part of the 12-1/2 to 13-/12 percen... | 237 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think that's clearly true. | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | Remember that one of the dangers of the approach we have been talking about is that we may miss the target anyway, and we are a little less vulnerable to that with the conventional approach. The problem wouldn't disappear if we missed the targets either way. But without going through the rigmarole of a new dedication t... | 227 |
fomc | 1,979 | Voting members or all of us? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, we will take everyone now. Raise your hand if you prefer the present method. Does everybody else prefer the other or--? | 27 |
fomc | 1,979 | HOW many was it? MR. ALTMA". Three or four--I'm not sure | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Hold up your hands a little higher, even if you don't feel strongly. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | These are those who feel we should continue as with everything we said this morning? | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's just continue the regular procedure. MR. ALTMA". It's five. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | All right. HOW many would prefer the other alternative? Is that everybody else? MR. ALTMA". Twelve. | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | There is quite clearly a great majority who want the new technique. Now let me ask the question slightly differently. How many feel strongly about this? I doubt that anybody thinks it's a matter of life or death but I just want to see how strong the sentiment is. | 53 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think it's big. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Who has a strong preference for moving in the new direction? MR. ALTMA". 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. | 34 |
fomc | 1,979 | You're in that camp, Nancy? | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | I feel queasy about it. | 7 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, some preference. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | Your feeling is semi-strong, Nancy. | 9 |
fomc | 1,979 | Now, let's look at the voting members Who has a strong preference? MR. ALTMA". Seven, again not counting you. | 26 |
fomc | 1,979 | Did you count Nancy in or out? MR. ALTMA". No. I didn't count Nancy. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | I'm in. MR. ALTMA". Eight. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | Out of 11 | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I guess that's strong enough that we ought to go with it. | 15 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't know how much difference it will really come down to. I think we have a better intellectual agreement. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | I will just give you my interpretation of a non-mechanical [application], as I put it from the beginning, of the new technique. The difference isn't all that dramatic. There will be more emphasis on [the new technique] in the press announcement because it will be, in effect, a warning that the federal funds rate is goi... | 107 |
fomc | 1,979 | I think we are going to get a bigger psychological impact than you think we're going to get. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | I do, too | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Paul, one of the problems with the alternative is that we either adopt a wide range or start with a funds rate that's already above where it is now. In other words, if it's at a little less than 12 percent now, and we put our range at 12-1/2 to 14 percent or whatever you suggested, that raises another difficulty. Maybe... | 93 |
fomc | 1,979 | Oh, I said we would have to widen the ranges on the alternative [technique]. | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | Almost to the full 4 points, if we are going to sell it. | 16 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let me, for my [information], put it the other way. I just want to get a sense of this. Suppose we used the conventional approach; the range might be stated formally as 1 percentage point in width. But suppose I also said that in practice right now, as we usually say, we are going to aim for 13-1/4 percent and we are n... | 134 |
fomc | 1,979 | You mean announce that rate? | 6 |
fomc | 1,979 | No, do it just the way we do now. The market would be looking at Peter's actions over the next 3 days to find out that he was intervening at 13-3/8 percent on the up side and 13 percent on the down side. | 55 |
fomc | 1,979 | Ugh! We lose any--1 hate to use the word--drama. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's interesting. Is everybody saying that they don't like that? | 12 |
fomc | 1,979 | I still think it's the safer thing to do. | 10 |
fomc | 1,979 | I don't, Henry, because all we'd be doing is tightening with no possibilities of [the rate] coming down again. | 24 |
fomc | 1,979 | It would look as if we are just chug, chugging, more [of the same]. It lacks the announcement effect of the other approach. | 31 |
fomc | 1,979 | You get your announcement effect out of the reserve requirement [change]. | 13 |
fomc | 1,979 | We have a tentative directive written, which is quite general as you can imagine. [That is being distributed to you now.] We can vote on the directive. | 32 |
fomc | 1,979 | Is this just in favor of the approach or does it have the specifications tied to-- | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Specifications, too. | 4 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I'm not going to dissent against what the Board and Federal Open Market Committee think they ought to do if the majority is clearly in favor of package 1. I must admit that I think the M1 target is too high. | 47 |
fomc | 1,979 | I concur, Mr. Chairman. I certainly would like to see it shaved down a bit because I think it is very important that we come within the ranges. And remember, we just announced 1-1/2 to 4-1/2 percent as the target on Ml and we are going to have to tell people that it's really 3 to 6 percent. | 76 |
fomc | 1,979 | The announcement will say that | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I share that view. I would like 4 percent rather than 4.5 percent. | 19 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would, too. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I would, too. | 5 |
fomc | 1,979 | I wouldn't. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, why don't we take a vote on the 4 against the 4-1/2? | 21 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, I'd be reluctant to fine-tune too much here. That is why I suggest 4-1/2 percent, recognizing that if market developments permit and if there are opportunities to get [Ml growth] somewhat below that without pressing the limits of our funds ranges, we ought to take them. | 61 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, I could save the Committee some trouble in reading [this draft directive] by pointing out that page 1 is a repeat of the existing long-run target [directive language]. Page 2 is the new operational paragraph that is proposed. | 50 |
fomc | 1,979 | Mr. Chairman, would it be too much of a straddle to say that we were going to aim for a 4 to 4-1/2 percent range [for Ml] for September-December? | 43 |
fomc | 1,979 | Let me just suggest this. Why don't we put in the directive at this point that we now estimate the ATS and NOW account effect at about 1-112 percent, which would make the equivalent range for M1 3 to 6 percent. I'm going to have to say that in the press conference, anyway. | 64 |
fomc | 1,979 | Well, my point isn't just to straddle more, but to cite an intention within a half point range. It seems to me that we've been range conscious on all of our aggregates so there's no harm in saying we are aiming in a range of 4 to 4-112 percent for September to December. | 62 |
fomc | 1,979 | We could do that. Whatever way, this is not specifically in the directive is it? | 18 |
fomc | 1,979 | No | 1 |
fomc | 1,979 | It will be in the minutes. CHAI- VOLCKER. It will be in the minutes. | 20 |
fomc | 1,979 | You mean the statement of policy actions? MR. ALTMA". The policy record. | 17 |
fomc | 1,979 | Policy record. | 3 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's the release that comes out about a month [after the meeting]? MR. ALTMA". That's right. | 22 |
fomc | 1,979 | I hate to keep asking, but is the funds range 11-112 to 15-1/2 percent, as Nancy suggested? | 28 |
fomc | 1,979 | It's 11-1/2 to 15-1/2 as Nancy suggested, with a clear warning to you that you may get a call for a consultation if the rate gets up there. | 40 |
fomc | 1,979 | The way she stated it was that a consultation clearly would be called at 34-112 percent, wasn't it? | 23 |
fomc | 1,979 | That's right. | 3 |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.