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fomc | 1,980 | That's one of the major risks in a forecast like this because [the downturn] is deep enough and it also started with many sectors being in what we would perceive at least to be a vulnerable position. [So], even though one is looking for that kind of evidence, those developments tend to be unpredictable and could pose s... | 266 |
fomc | 1,980 | Individual bankruptcies are already up very substantially, but there is a real question as to whether that's related to the new bankruptcy law--how much effect one can assign to that. | 35 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Mayo. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | What about the $20 billion budget deficit that you have for fiscal '81? Do I understand that that would be even larger if the import fee were cut out? | 33 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, that includes $10 billion, roughly, in receipts. So if nothing else changed, the deficit would be in the neighborhood of $30 billion. | 31 |
fomc | 1,980 | So from your standpoint this is a swing from a $16 billion or so surplus projected by the Administration? | 21 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, some of the developments in Congress have lowered that, though, so the numbers coming out of the Senate side were a small surplus. But the numbers are all on the plus side. I might note that we have not assumed passage of the withholding on interest and dividends and that's worth something like $3-1/2 billion. We... | 161 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think's it's a very reasonable assumption, but it is a very important ingredient in the Greenbook presentation. | 22 |
fomc | 1,980 | Any other comments or questions? We will turn to Mr. Axilrod. | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | [Statement--see Appendix.] | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | I [am tempted] to suggest that you might get into the more technical problems. But maybe we will defer that and get whatever reactions we have at the moment to as far as you have gone. Governor Partee. | 44 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, on this question of strategy for dealing with a shortfall, I just don't know; I have a feeling of discomfort about it. I suppose what it amounts to is that having suffered an unprecedented decline we ought to be prepared for an unprecedented increase to make it up, should it occur. Therefore, if we had a sudden s... | 563 |
fomc | 1,980 | May I ask a question of Steve? Steve, what you have done is [to present] two alternatives here, both of which are geared to reaching the midpoint of the range. Now, Governor Partee feels that structurally it is better to do it by September. But doesn't it leave us a lot of flexibility if we attempt at this point to tar... | 116 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's precisely why I suggested September, because in fact we might continue to have a shortfall relative to our expectations, in which case having targeted on December we will have no more room. I think we will be lucky if we are within the ranges at all this year. But it's just a question of how quickly we try to ge... | 71 |
fomc | 1,980 | It makes a big difference which M one looks at. It may be true of Ml; M2 and M3 don't look so bad. | 28 |
fomc | 1,980 | And maybe L is even; as Steve points out, those T-bills may be pretty high. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | The analytic significance of L escapes me. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | It's pretty good when you have a decline in M2 and M3 simply because people bought Treasury bills. | 21 |
fomc | 1,980 | It always happens; in every credit crunch it has happened. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's why the analytic significance is high. Governor Wallich. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'd like to make the opposite case, and in fact express some concern about getting back on track even in December. There is at least a good chance that we have had a demand shift and that we would just be pouring in money when [instead] we should have taken account of the diminished demand for money. Nobody can say how... | 588 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Eastburn. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I would like to shift the argument back to what Chuck started with. We really are dealing with probabilities here, and that's what makes it so very difficult. There is a possibility that we have had a fundamental shift in the demand for money. There is a possibility that we are in for something bigger, perhaps bi... | 309 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Black. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I recognize the possibilities that Governor Wallich has outlined, and he outlined them very well. But I feel that if we don't [do something to] be on target before long, we may get almost impossible pressures against us to ease later on [by more than is desirable], at about the time the economy is recover... | 144 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Morris. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, one major problem I have with the funds range of alternative A is that if we were to vote for a 10 percent floor, after having given the Manager a 10-1/2 percent floor in our last telephone conference, I don't think we could honestly or with a straight face say that we are trying to control bank reserves.... | 239 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Balles. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, before we try to make a decision on "B" or something else, I'd like to ask a question of the staff. Do you, Steve, or any of your colleagues, have a judgment as to the extent to which the special credit restraint program of March 14--otherwise known in some sections of the country as "Jaws II"--might be a... | 169 |
fomc | 1,980 | I have a judgment; perhaps Jim also has one. I would say that it probably did have some effect on bankers' attitudes, or at least it seems so from the data. But perhaps even more importantly, it seems to have had some effect on consumers' attitudes. Spending has been very weak and I think that weakness is associated wi... | 264 |
fomc | 1,980 | May I comment on that from an anecdotal point of view on the basis of talking to bankers and others all over the country who are involved in credit extensions? I think Nancy [Teeters] would corroborate what I say. Well, I don't know that for sure but I think so. It's clear that [the credit restraint program] was a real... | 190 |
fomc | 1,980 | Of course, Fred, if we take credit controls off and it has no impact--if people don't go back to spending--then we can do both simultaneously. | 32 |
fomc | 1,980 | [We would say] we're taking them off because our prior tight money policy was successful. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | We'd say that we're not really using it. We'd try to ease our target growth. | 18 |
fomc | 1,980 | Certainly we'd say monetary growth is lower than ever-- | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Let me comment further on what Fred was saying. The reports I've been getting are that credit sales have just plummeted. And it shows up on the profit reports of Penneys and Sears that came out this morning. Another aspect that people seem to be worried about is that purchases of household durables were so strong in th... | 141 |
fomc | 1,980 | If I can end my comment, Mr. Chairman: I suspect the March 14th programs--this is just an intuitive feeling on my part--have done the job that we hoped they would do, and that was essentially to break the back of inflationary psychology. Therefore, I think those programs have outlived their usefulness and they will sim... | 198 |
fomc | 1,980 | I have a great vacuum of volunteer speakers here. | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I think this is a time when we need to go back and restudy some of our history on these things. The problems of our undershoots and overshoots are a little sobering it seems to me. It's a problem, really, of the gaps that occur in this process. It's not just [a question of] when we get back on target, bec... | 306 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Mayo. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | First, on the credit restraint program: I, too, think it should be dismantled, but in parts. The time is already ripe for getting rid of the consumer part. I don't see any particular damage in taking it off piece by piece if only because, based on some of our traditional observances, the bank credit hangs on after acti... | 493 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Baughman. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I don't feel that I can dispel any of the uncertainty that has been cited here today. It is a very uncertain situation. On the credit restraint program, I think it would be desirable to announce that it seems to have achieved its objective for the time being at least and, consequently, all required report... | 180 |
fomc | 1,980 | You'd [take] off the special deposits too--not just the reporting but also the special deposits? | 21 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, yes. But we're not getting any of those anyhow, are we? | 16 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't know; we got some from the mutual funds. | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | On the monetary policy issue, it seems to me that the risks are on the side of a fairly extended period of [money growth] running well below target and that, therefore, we should move fairly quickly and fairly decisively to try to get back within our announced target ranges. So between alternatives A and B, that would ... | 130 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mrs. Teeters. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, all the news has been consistently bad. Every day brings in another indication of greater depth of the slump. And it seems to me that the risks are all on the down side at this point. If we look at the staff forecast, they have made the recession deeper but somewhat shorter. And the total recession isn't much gre... | 295 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Roos. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I think it is important to understand fully the nature of the decision we made on October 6 and the potential or lack of potential for accomplishing what we said we were going to accomplish. As I understood the meaning of what we said in October, it was that we were going to set fairly long-range targets ... | 722 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Schultz. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | I am amazed, and I must admit disturbed, at the fact that I haven't heard the word inflation mentioned around this table this morning. My word, it was only two months ago that we were wild about the subject and terribly concerned about it. I admit that we're in an unusual period. Things have moved exceptionally fast. B... | 520 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Forrestal. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, Mr. Chairman, we share the [view that there are substantial] uncertainties in the present situation but I must confess that we don't share the pessimism about the economy that I've heard around the table this morning. We certainly would not want to minimize the extent of the downturn that has occurred. On the oth... | 545 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Rice. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, Mr.Chairman, I favor alternative B for the reasons that have been given by a number of people. I'd like to assure Governor Schultz that I'm still very much worried about inflation and hope that we will bring it under control. But at this time I believe the risks of undershooting our targets are greater than the r... | 262 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Solomon. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | As a relative newcomer to this Open Market Committee, I've been struck by the very frequent reference to losing our credibility if we don't stick to the targets. It seems to me, first of all, that the target is a range and that it's perfectly appropriate to come in at any part of that range, if we can, rather than to z... | 183 |
fomc | 1,980 | Just to be accurate the phrase used in the release was "more emphasis," not "somewhat more emphasis." | 22 |
fomc | 1,980 | Okay, I stand corrected but I think my point is still a correct one. You did say that it was not a mechanistic formula and that judgment would be used. Now, in a world where there is so much uncertainty, I recognize that there is a good possibility that we will undershoot but there's also a good possibility that we wil... | 550 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think it will be. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, then I take it back. There is one person. Even Bill Miller said that he would hope to get it down to 10 percent by the end of the year. And we're talking about maintaining short-term rates at lower than the rate of inflation. What is going to be the reaction of long rates, which have the biggest impact on the rea... | 269 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Guffey, are you the last one here? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, it's fortunate, I think, because Tony Solomon just synthesized my feelings both for moving somewhat gradually and for building stability. I would also point out only as an addendum to what he said that if we [adopt] alternative A and shorten the horizon to September, if the estimates are right, by the end of Sept... | 276 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Gainor, do you have two words you want to say? | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mount St. Helens has covered the Ninth District with [inorganic] ash but it hasn't wiped us out yet, Mr. Chairman. We favor adherence, as closely as possible, to the money supply targets set by this Committee previously. We think they were reasonable targets in the long-range [plan to reduce] inflation, and we'd like t... | 113 |
fomc | 1,980 | Okay, let's drink coffee quickly. I won't deprive you completely! | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, let me see if I can sort this out a bit. We've done a lot of talking about the risks in the situation, and they undoubtedly exist. The obvious risk is the presence of recession, and when that [occurs] one always has the feeling of being in a bottomless period. Indeed, there is a certain degree of risk that we are... | 965 |
fomc | 1,980 | So did the money supply. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I knew the money supply was going to go up for a week when I made the speech. But I thought the reaction we were going to get from that increase in the money supply was going to be an increase in interest rates in the short run. That's partly why I said it. [I figured] we might as well get it in reaction to the s... | 277 |
fomc | 1,980 | Following up on April! | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Having made the best judgment, that's exactly right. I yield to nobody in my skepticism about these things. I am equally skeptical of anyone else's projections--maybe even more so, if that's possible. The point has been made by several people that the ranges are in fact ranges. Nobody has ever committed, at the extreme... | 321 |
fomc | 1,980 | I should add, Mr. Chairman, that our long-run forecast, of course, is for interest rates not to be lower but actually to edge up. | 31 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. So, these may well be consistent under that kind of projection of interest rates. But if interest rates in fact turned out to be lower, which is the gut instinct of a number of people around the table and a gut instinct that I can understand, I think we're going to find that M2 and M3 are running better than shown... | 225 |
fomc | 1,980 | The revisions came out this morning. The Commerce Department had previously indicated that real GNP rose 1.1 percent in the first quarter; they now indicate the rise was 0.6 percent. Final purchases are roughly the same at a 1-1/2 percent rate of increase. And now there is indicated to have been a small liquidation of ... | 108 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'm not sure that that really changes anything. Maybe it's good that inventories are a little lower. I do think, in making a specific decision, that we have a technical problem in the sense that we are in unknown territory when we are dealing with the possibility at least that we're not going to have any borrowings, wh... | 210 |
fomc | 1,980 | I didn't specify [a fed funds range]. | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | More than one may not have specified. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think zero is a bit of a possibility, unless we constrain the funds rate. | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | The point of this is that there is a good chance that at least in some weeks--for more than an isolated week as some of you [have suggested]--the lower end of the federal funds range will become a constraining influence on the speed with which nonborrowed reserves are provided. That depends in part, of course, on preci... | 95 |
fomc | 1,980 | I suppose also we could cut the discount rate, Mr. Chairman. | 14 |
fomc | 1,980 | You know, I'm not even sure how relevant that becomes in these circumstances. We just don't know. I don't know whether or not $1 billion of excess reserves and a 13 percent discount rate will give us a federal funds rate of 7 percent instead of zero. We really are in an area of unknown relationships at the moment. I wo... | 320 |
fomc | 1,980 | The question is: What do we do with that $850 million shortfall in reserves? That's money in the bank, I might say. Do we first permit an $850 million increase? | 38 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, that's one way of putting it. In a sense, that would make up [for] April and nobody would be much disturbed about it. Putting it extremely, I would begin to get disturbed by an 18 percent increase in the money supply in one month. | 54 |
fomc | 1,980 | And the associated move in the funds rate. If we put in the $850 million regardless-- | 19 |
fomc | 1,980 | No, I'm not saying put it in regardless. I'm just saying if it happens to arise now. I don't think that's going to happen and perhaps we don't have to look at that extreme. But in essence what I'm saying is that we would permit some of that $850 million to be made up without any concern. | 63 |
fomc | 1,980 | I would interpret that operationally, Mr. Chairman, as meaning that if it so happens that required reserves in the first two or three weeks of this forthcoming period come in significantly higher than these paths call for, that we should adjust the nonborrowed path up, given that [earlier] shortfall, in order to avert ... | 74 |
fomc | 1,980 | A rise in the funds rate of real significance anyway. I'm talking about it going up to 13 or 14 percent or probably even 12 percent. That's a-- | 34 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, are we as a Committee accepting the conclusion that we really see great dangers in freely rising and freely falling interest rates? When interest rates went way up, did that cause disorderly markets? | 41 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | Did it really? Didn't the markets adjust to it? I hate to see the stock market go down or up. But why is that different than the interest rate markets? | 34 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I'm not sure I have to argue that point at great length. What I'm saying, approaching it from a different direction, is that we don't have to resist some recovery from the shortfall in the aggregates that we've already had. | 47 |
fomc | 1,980 | With all the concerns I have, I wouldn't want to see interest rates jump up now. I think people, at least people abroad, would think that we've really gone haywire. | 36 |
fomc | 1,980 | We'd have a different situation if we were within the target range or high in the range and the funds rate jumped up. That's not the situation I'm talking about. Then we might well say okay, interest rates have to rise. But we've had a big shortfall. | 54 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do you feel in your contact with the public, Paul, that nobody out there knows that we are no longer trying to control or stabilize interest rates? Hasn't that message reached anyone overseas or here or anywhere? | 42 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think it has reached quite a few people. But we have a skeptical audience out there. Some people would say, if they saw the money supply going up and interest rates went up: "Oh, your policy has gotten easier." They will pick whatever variable they want to pick at the moment to attack us if they're skeptical to start... | 429 |
fomc | 1,980 | For the two months, for May-June? | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'm just talking about May-June at this point. As everybody has indicated, the critical point is going to be that funds rate constraint. We have the opportunity for consulting on that as time passes but I want to get some general sense of what seems appropriate at the moment. We've been operating at 10-1/2 percent; tha... | 508 |
fomc | 1,980 | I interpret what you're recommending to mean that we will take a look at it when it reaches 9-1/2 percent before a decision would be made to move down to 9 percent. Is that what you said? | 45 |
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