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value | Date int64 1.98k 2.01k | Text stringlengths 2 27.1k | Token_count int64 1 5.57k |
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fomc | 1,980 | Yes, well below the range. | 7 |
fomc | 1,980 | After having run for a year or more above the top of the range. It does suggest that we could reduce the M-1A range on technical grounds; I guess one could justify a half point reduction in the lower end. | 46 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, one of the considerations--to repeat what Steve just said--is that for this year one might take the point of view that M-1A particularly should be reduced. If we do that, just keep in mind what we might want to do for '81 and what visual appearances we want to give of-- | 64 |
fomc | 1,980 | I mentioned the lower end of the range. Your point about the top end is very well taken. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | I would have some arguments against doing that in addition to the problem that it creates for '81. Number one, the credibility issue of having stated targets and leaving them alone at this point is worth thinking about. The other is that if we start fooling around with these ranges and try to get them a bit tighter or ... | 136 |
fomc | 1,980 | I will remind you in that connection, as Fred just implied, that we got some criticism last year--I don't think it was serious--that the logic was to reduce the width of the ranges at [the midyear review]. I don't suggest that we should necessarily do it, but we should have that in mind. That is, we ought to reject it ... | 136 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I'd like to [harken] back [to] what you said earlier and what Fred just said. The thrust of your introductory comments was that [people] behave differently these days because of expectations than they would ordinarily. | 46 |
fomc | 1,980 | One might argue that anyway. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I think it's very true. In light of that, it seems to me that this exercise we go through twice a year goes beyond policymaking so far as the aggregates are concerned and goes to the public impact in terms of creditability and expectations. I would prefer your statement to be fairly simple. I'd say, first of all,... | 268 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Roos. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | I am very close to where Dave is on this. I think it would be a terrible mistake to adjust these ranges. This probably will be the first real test from a credibility standpoint of whether we are fulfilling what we announced our policy would be last October. To horse around or to adjust the range to accommodate what is ... | 376 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I don't think we ought to associate a change in the ranges--if we think we have good grounds for a change --with playing games or horsing around. All "B" is arguing is that a technical adjustment is required. | 48 |
fomc | 1,980 | Don't you think, given the tendency of the Open Market Committee in past years toward base drift, that people--or at least interested market participants and others--knew that we were playing games in those days to make ourselves look good? | 47 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think there is something to what you say, looking at history. And I'm not arguing for changing the ranges; but I just don't want to associate any change, particularly in this case when we could argue that we have a technical reason for making the change, with playing games. We said a certain range was valid at one po... | 143 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, as to the general economic and psychological setting, I am persuaded that we are in a situation where our conventional belief no longer stands up that monetary and fiscal policy, if handled appropriately, have the capacity for nudging the economy along a path toward full employment and price stability. An... | 143 |
fomc | 1,980 | Pardon me for interrupting you, Ernie, but you reminded me: I would appreciate it if people, when they are making their comments, would express any assumption they are making about fiscal policy or wage-price policies--as you have just done to an extent--and say what they think is appropriate. Your comment on wage-pric... | 74 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, turning to what's immediately at hand, I think it's a close call as to whether to make any adjustments in the targets that were announced last February. I can make a fairly persuasive case either way, I think. It seems to me that we are under rather strong pressure to do something with the 6 to 9 percent range on... | 472 |
fomc | 1,980 | You assume a tax cut next year or the desirability thereof? | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I take it as a given that there will be one. It's not something that I have endorsed in any of the speeches I have made. | 30 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Mayo. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I'm quite comfortable with alternative 1 as stated, [namely to maintain] the present ranges. I would, of course, do the proposed revision of the bank credit range. But I don't consider that in the same box as the four aggregates. As a matter of fact, I think we have gone out of our way to make it clear to... | 459 |
fomc | 1,980 | One problem you remind me of--it is more of a potential problem--is that if we put more emphasis on M2 and also say qualitatively that we are going to reduce its range, my impression is that we may maximize the tension between the economic projection and the monetary projections. | 57 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, you have to go further than I indicated, Paul, in that M2 has certain qualities that remove it a little from transaction accounts. That's why we have M1. I don't see any harm in indicating that we may not be able to reduce M2 but that we expect or hope to have slightly lower M1 ranges. I don't think that would ge... | 108 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Morris. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, I don't think there is a compelling case to change the ranges this year, although I wouldn't object to revising M-1A down by 1/2 of one percentage point. For next year, I disagree with most people who have talked so far. I think we ought to give some numbers for next year. If we fail to do so, we could ge... | 545 |
fomc | 1,980 | Despite the fact that it's inconsistent with the economic outlook as presented? It's only 1/2 percentage point more inconsistent than the present range. | 28 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't think 1/2 point is going to make very much difference, Mr. Chairman. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | Except that it is in the wrong direction. | 9 |
fomc | 1,980 | What would you say about taxes and wage-price policy? | 11 |
fomc | 1,980 | We ought to scrap wage-price policy. I don't think it has contributed anything in 1980, and in an environment such as we are going to have in the next couple of years I think the marketplace could do a better job than presidential guidelines. Presidential guidelines might end up providing a floor for wage increases in ... | 71 |
fomc | 1,980 | Do I infer from what you are saying that you are much more optimistic about the wage outlook than the forecast suggests? | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, I am, because I think we can affect expectations if we really demonstrate to the marketplace that things are changing, that we are doing things differently. | 31 |
fomc | 1,980 | We can't affect existing contracts. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, but remember, 80 percent of the American labor force is non-union. It doesn't [work under] any contract. On taxes, I would urge the Congress to set that issue aside until they come back in the next session and treat it as a tax reform issue rather than as a consumption stimulus issue. One could make a good case fo... | 152 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Black. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, like several of the others who have spoken, our preference for 1981 would be the retention of the existing ranges. I come out pretty close to where Dave Eastburn and Larry Roos came out but, of course, I wouldn't want to overstate my case as you said Larry was close to doing. So, I feel pretty much the sa... | 752 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Wallich. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, I feel we ought to reduce the ranges for 1980. I realize it looks a little like base drift in fitting the goals to suit the achievements, but the alternative of bringing the achievements back within the ranges that were our goals could be very damaging. That would mean a rapid [rate of] increase in the aggregates... | 461 |
fomc | 1,980 | Wages, prices, and taxes? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | My response there is that we ought to go to a tax oriented incomes policy. I see in the Washington Post today that they are revising-- | 29 |
fomc | 1,980 | Last gasp. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | It just won't die because it's a reasonable suggestion. As for a tax cut, if we had the choice, I would postpone it into late '81. | 31 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Teeters. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'm quite satisfied with the specifications of the ranges at this point. Remember, they are ranges, and if we get into the lower parts of them or the upper parts of them we've met our targets. We don't have to hit the 4-1/2 percent or 4-3/4 percent [midpoints] right on the nose. It seems to me that it would not be wise... | 192 |
fomc | 1,980 | If I can just interrupt, I meant to ask--and maybe you already said this Steve, though you don't have it this way in the table--if we keep the ranges unchanged, is the technical case intellectually, in the sense of your best forecast, overwhelming for changing bank credit or not? | 59 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, our forecast for bank credit is literally 4-1/2 percent. | 17 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, December to December it's around 5 percent. | 11 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's consistent with these-- | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, that's consistent with the 4-1/2 percent [forecast for M-1A], etc. | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | But if you add in commercial paper what happens to it? | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't have that rate of growth in mind, but I don't think it would be that low. | 20 |
fomc | 1,980 | It probably would bring growth within the range, if we [took into account] the substitution in commercial paper. | 23 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'd have to calculate it. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | It has been several billion dollars in the last couple-- | 11 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. It strikes me as the same kind of animal. [Issuers of commercial paper] have just shifted where they are getting [funds]; and due to the technicalities of the prime rate relative to market rates it's a reasonable thing to do. So, we could just explain that there has been a shift in the way the market is [behaving]... | 374 |
fomc | 1,980 | Wages, prices, and taxes? | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | On wages and prices, I don't see that we have a hope of getting it through Congress. On taxes I think the most beneficial tax cut we could get--this should sound familiar--is to cut out the social security tax increases, which would probably do more to lower unit costs than anything we could do at this point. That has ... | 166 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Gramley. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Let me start with the tax issue first. I agree with Frank that we ought to encourage the Congress not to consider this until after the general election. I think the chances of getting a well-structured tax cut would be much better if it could be considered later this year rather than in the heat of election politics. I... | 644 |
fomc | 1,980 | Are you talking about '80 and '81? | 10 |
fomc | 1,980 | 1980. What I would do for 1981 is simply say that at this juncture we have no basis for changing our views on the appropriate growth rates and for now I'd leave them where they are. | 42 |
fomc | 1,980 | If I understand you, for M2 for 1980 you would-- | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | I would be inclined to raise the range for M2 for 1980. One way to do it would be simply to raise the upper end and say 6 to 10 percent. | 38 |
fomc | 1,980 | Or let it go a little over. | 8 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes. | 2 |
fomc | 1,980 | Chances are that M3 will be within [its range] and we could be a little over on M2 and a little under on Ml. | 30 |
fomc | 1,980 | I'd be prepared to [accept] that, too. | 11 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Winn. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, my posture would be to emphasize the rapidity of change we've experienced and the likelihood that we may encounter continued rapid changes down the road. I'd indicate the kinds of changes that have taken place and that may take place in the future. I would keep monetary policy unchanged but stress that ma... | 340 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Balles. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, earlier on you raised the question of the Proxmire resolution and didn't get much of a response. I was mulling over the opportunities as well as the risks of supporting that resolution and I would come out recommending that you support it if you're forced to take a position. If at some future date the Con... | 139 |
fomc | 1,980 | If I may just make clear my own position at the moment, which is always subject to change, it is not to resist it or to support it. In other words, if I get asked "Is this a good resolution?" I'd say it's a fine resolution. But I'd try not to be out there in front. | 64 |
fomc | 1,980 | Yes, I think that would be wise. The dilemma that you so well described earlier is going to come home to roost, obviously, in your testimony. I agree with a number of other observations made around the table a little earlier that the markets, both domestic and international, are going to be extraordinarily sensitive to... | 721 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Schultz. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, my point of view is strongly driven by something that we haven't talked about yet, and that is that we are still kind of on a honeymoon and that the tough times are ahead. The technique that we are using implies that at some point in time, when the economy begins to strengthen, unemployment will still be high and... | 613 |
fomc | 1,980 | Governor Partee. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | I agree 100 percent with Nancy. I would use the same ranges again, recognizing that for 1980 we expect--and to some extent plan--to come in at the bottom end of the range on M1 and maybe well up in the range on M2. I think that's probably better than making any kind of technical adjustment. And I agree that we can expl... | 608 |
fomc | 1,980 | I agree with everybody. It's obvious to me that there is going to be a tax cut next year. I just hope it's a good one--that is, one that consists in part of a reduction in payroll taxes but also increases investment incentives. From my point of view it should have at least these two objectives: To increase investment i... | 590 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Solomon. | 4 |
fomc | 1,980 | It seems to me that the question is not what assumption the Federal Reserve is making in regard to tax policy, but how you will answer questions on policy recommendations that the Committee will ask you. Substantively I certainly agree with Lyle Gramley and a lot of others that the responsible thing to say--and I hope ... | 581 |
fomc | 1,980 | I would just note in connection with that last comment that it is not a question of my dancing around and answering the questions. That is one thing. But in our lovely staff report we have to put in black and white what we believe the prospects are for next year, however vaguely that is stated. The official distillatio... | 98 |
fomc | 1,980 | Perhaps we could invent a typo for this and scramble the sentence-- | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | Have we heard from everybody except our First Vice Presidential associates? | 12 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's correct. | 3 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Forrestal. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Perhaps I should begin by saying that when Governor Partee talks about Federal Reserve salaries I would take some exception, but perhaps I'll save that for another forum. | 38 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's what everybody always does when they talk about their own salary. | 13 |
fomc | 1,980 | With respect to the longer-term targets for 1980, Mr. Chairman, I think the choice is a difficult one between maintaining the status quo and lowering them. I have some sympathy for the view Governor Wallich has expressed, but on balance I would prefer to see the targets remain unchanged for 1980. Having said that, I do... | 259 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Gainor. | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | With respect to wages and prices, I agree entirely with Bob Forrestal that the best thing we could do is dismantle the program as soon as possible and I'd recommend that. On the issue of a tax cut, we assume a cut of the magnitude projected, around $28 billion. We'd prefer that we not have it. If we have to have it, th... | 204 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Czerwinski. | 6 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, there is little that I can add to what has already been said. Our position with respect to wage and price policy would be identical to what Bob Forrestal has enunciated. | 40 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think the First Vice Presidents' position on wage-price policy is related to their dislike of wage-price policies by the Federal Reserve Board. | 27 |
fomc | 1,980 | I don't understand the implications. We don't have to raise them as much. | 15 |
fomc | 1,980 | With respect to taxes we, too, think that a cut is inevitable and would prefer to see it come late in 1981 if possible. On the long-run targets for 1980, our preference would be to maintain the existing [ranges]. For 1981, we would favor some slight reduction. | 62 |
fomc | 1,980 | Mr. Chairman, would you just record me--because you hadn't asked the question on wage and price controls--as being strongly opposed to them. | 29 |
fomc | 1,980 | That's a big surprise! | 5 |
fomc | 1,980 | I think he understated his case, Mr. Chairman! | 11 |
fomc | 1,980 | Well, let me try to summarize so we can conclude, if feasible, before lunch. On taxes, first of all, let me just say that I [expect] to be asked to testify formally on taxes, as it will be coming up before other committees. In a sense, what I say would be my personal testimony, but the question is to what extent I can ... | 1,178 |
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